The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 20, 2023

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:36 pm

2UCLATennesseeKansas St.Iowa St.
5TCUAuburnMiami (Fla)Rutgers
6San Diego St.DukeSaint Mary’sProvidence
7North Carolina St.ArkansasIllinoisMichigan St.
8New MexicoNorth CarolinaMissouriIowa
9IndianaBoise St.Arizona St.Creighton
10Florida AtlanticClemsonWisconsinWest Virginia
12Kent St.Oral RobertsDaytonOhio St.Penn St.
13SeattleMarshallSouthern IllinoisIona
14LibertyUC Santa BarbaraCornellColgate
15UMass LowellSamfordYoungstown St.Eastern Washington
16LongwoodSIU EdwardsvilleSouthernTexas A&M-CCMorgan St.Fairleigh Dickinson

Last 4 Byes: Wisconsin, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Memphis

Last 4 In: Maryland, Northwestern, Ohio St., Penn St.

First 4 Out: Utah St., Oklahoma, Wake Forest, Texas A&M

Next 4 Out: Nevada, Central Florida, USC, Seton Hall

Note: The last 4 teams in the field this week are all Big Ten teams. These would be First Four teams playing in Dayton, but the NCAA Selection Committee will not put four Big Ten teams in this round.

January 13, 2023

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:30 am
3TexasKansas St.GonzagaXavier
4Iowa St.MarquetteVirginiaMiami (Fl)
5ArkansasSan Diego St.TCUDuke
7Saint Mary’sOhio St.MissouriIllinois
8North CarolinaNorth Carolina St.Michigan St.Florida Atlantic
9WisconsinNew MexicoArizona St.Maryland
10West VirginiaNorthwesternCharlestonClemson
11CreightonUtah St.Penn St.IowaIndiana
12Kent St.DaytonUtah ValleyMemphisMississippi St.
13IonaOral RobertsLibertyIndiana St.
14UC-IrvinePrincetonUMass LowellTroy
15SamfordColgateLongwoodSIU Edwardsville
16Eastern WashingtonYoungstown St.SouthernTexas A&M-CCFairleigh DickinsonNorfolk St.

Last 4 Byes: Clemson, Creighton, Utah St., Penn St.

Last 4 In: Iowa, Indiana, Memphis, Mississippi St.

First 4 Out: Virginia Tech, Boise St., Pittsburgh, Central Florida

Next 4 Out: Nevada, Wake Forest, Kentucky, Oklahoma St.

September 22, 2022

PiRate Picks: September 22-24, 2022

After losing most of our imaginary profit made in the first two weeks last week, we happened to be gifted with a week where the numbers seemed to be in our favor. We issued seven selections, including a Money Line Parlay that had eye-popping +204.42 odds. The Wyoming-Air Force rivlary game immediately drew our attention, as the 14 1/2 points were not just a gift, but an outright mistake. It won to start the weekend out on a great note.

We played two short favorites at home, something we rarely like to play. One of them, Maryland over SMU, won. The other was winning until a true freshman quarterback acted like Peyton Manning in the second half of his game, and our own local Vanderbilt Commodores won as a road ‘dog.

We played three totals, and all three won, but two of those were by the skin of our teeth. Oklahoma blew Nebraska off their home field. Thankfully, they ate the last 6 minutes off the clock when any score would have done us in. Notre Dame and Cal covered the 40 1/2 point total by a half point. Once again, we felt the AFA-Wyoming game was a gift with its high total, because the Cowboys historically have slowed down the option and kept this game close and low scoring.

Now to the Money Line Parlay at better than 2-1 odds. Penn State easily clobbered Auburn, as we thought would happen. Texas A&M was in a must-win situation to save Jimbo Fisher’s smoldering seat from becoming inflamed. North Carolina State proved their ranking is valid by topping Texas Tech with little trouble, and voila, we had an outstanding week cashing in six imaginary tickets in seven wagers. The imaginary $700 investment returned $1,294.42 for a fake profit of 85%. For the season to date, our beginning imaginary balance of $1,000 is now worth $1,906.19 a profit gain of 90.6% in four weeks.

That is now in the past. What have we done for you lately? We are about to do a lot by telling you that as wonderful as the numbers looked to us last week, they look that terrible this week. So many spreads are one point away from being plays for us. That one point is where we live. 20-something games were wiped out just because the number needed to be 7 1/2 instead of 6 1/2, 3 1/2 instead of 2 1/2, and 10 1/2 instead of 9 1/2. Buying points or playing teasers are two things we don’t like to do, unless we can play a 3-game, 10-point teaser where we can move spreads from 4 1/2 to 14 1/2, 7 1/2 to 17 1/2, 11 1/2 to 21 1/2 and similar.

Additionally, the totals seem to be a lot more accurate this week. Maybe on Monday, there were some playable totals, but by Wednesday night (when our picks are made), they had moved to unplayable numbers. We found just one game where we live the total this week.

That brings us to the Money Line parlay possibilities. Our philosophy with Money Line parlays is to take no more than three games on a parlay and to get at least +130 odds. Very rarely, we will add a fourth game that we believe has a better than 98% chance that the favorite will win. We could have added fourth games to the two parlays we chose, but that would have only raised the odds from the +130s to the +160s, and we don’t have the 98% confidence rating on either game. So, we are going with just three selections this week, hoping that next week will bring us more selection opportunities.

Selection #1: Southern California and Oregon State Under 70 1/2

It is our belief that this number had to be a little inflated to make it closer to a 50-50 wagering proposition. Still, the public is tending to the Over here. Both teams’ defenses and special teams have contributed to their scoring so far this year. This game figures to have better special teams defense, and both teams’ coaches might be preparing a little more than normal conservative game plans. We think the score could be in the neighborhood of 35-27, 35-31, or 34-28. Even a 38-28 game wins for us. So does a 35-34. It has to get to 38-35, 42-31, and 45-28 before this one loses.

Selection #2: Money Line Parlay at +135.77

Syracuse over Virginia

Georgia Southern over Ball St.

Old Dominion over Arkansas St.

Selection #3: Money Line Parlay at +134.52

Kansas over Duke

Clemson over Wake Forest

Temple over U Mass.

There is nothing special in our parlay picks this week. We simply believe that the chances of winning either one top the odds. We believe each one has a better than 50% chance of winning, and the chance of winning at least one of the two are 90%. Since going 1-1 in these two parlays is a guaranteed profit, we chose to pick these two with very similar odds, even if they are near our minimum odds we like to play.

Remember This: The PiRates never wager real money on these selections. We hope you don’t either. If you do wager real money, please do not use our selections as the main reference for your wagering.

We are not naive. We know there are more than a dozen of you that play our selections. Just because we have begun the 2022 football season with incredible results, there is no guarantee that this will continue. We have enjoyed 17 winning seasons in 22 years with this feature, but a couple of those 5 losing seasons were big losers. Many of our winning seasons returned 8-15% profit, some of those coming in years when the overall stock market returns were better than 15%. You don’t have to deal with the vig when you invest in corporations.

August 16, 2022

Atlantic Coast Conference Preview

With all the rumored movement of teams from one conference to another, for now the Atlantic Coast Conference appears to be on solid ground. The league’s Grant of Rights deal with its members make it quite difficult, if not impossible for teams to exit the league. Under this deal, any team would have to forfeit all media revenue earned in another conference back to the ACC. An exit fee of $100 million or more would make leaving the ACC for the SEC or Big Ten financially unwise.

Of course, there are always loopholes that can be discovered by crafty legal departments, so impossible is not in the college football vocabulary. Impossible was a word associated with the words “beating Clemson” until last year. The Tigers failed to win the Atlantic Division for the first time 2014. Wake Forest was the surprise winner in the Atlantic, while Pittsburgh won the Coastal Division title. Wake Forest figured to be a contender for the division title again this year until last week, their starting quarterback, Sam Hartman, was ruled out indefinitely due to a non-football issue that required a surgical procedure. Hartman might return late in the season, but his loss will hit the Demon Deacons hard enough to take them out of the conference championship picture.

2022 will be the final year of divisional play in this league. Here are the preseason PiRate Ratings for the league.

ACC Preseason PiRate Ratings

Atlantic Division
NC State118.3117.3118.5118.0
Wake Forest113.9113.2113.2113.4
Florida St.111.7111.0110.9111.2
Boston College100.5102.5100.2101.1
Coastal Division
Miami (Fla.)115.1113.7114.9114.6
North Carolina108.0108.2107.5107.9
Virginia Tech100.9101.398.4100.2
Georgia Tech95.695.593.694.9

Preseason Official ACC Media Poll

#Atlantic1st PlaceOverall
2North Carolina St.44959
3Wake Forest6783
5Florida St.2509
6Boston College1469
#Coastal1st PlaceOverall
3North Carolina18823
5Virginia Tech3592
6Georgia Tech1343
North Carolina St.38
Wake Forest4
Florida St.2
North Carolina2
Boston College1
Poll Taken Prior To Hartman’s Non-Football Medical Condition

The PiRate Ratings are designed to look at just the next week’s schedule of games and not to use to look forward. Nevertheless, here are the predicted won-loss records for the league.

Predicted Won-Loss Records

North Carolina St.7-111-1
Wake Forest4-48-4
Florida St.4-47-5
Boston College1-74-8
Virginia Tech4-48-4
North Carolina4-47-5
Georgia Tech1-72-10

Clemson picked to win ACC Championship Game

March 23, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Wednesday, March 23, 2022

Wednesday, March 23, 2022
Texas A&MWake Forest2.5
BYUWashington St.2.5
UNC WilmingtonMiddle Tennessee-0.1
Fresno St.Youngstown St.2.5
Southern UtahPortland2.5

February 15, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Tuesday, February 15, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:00 am
LongwoodHigh Point8.2
Western MichiganAkron-10.8
ToledoKent St.10.1
Penn St.Michigan St.-2.7
DukeWake Forest10.2
Sacred HeartMerrimack0.7
Saint Peter’sIona-3.9
South FloridaTulane-5.3
Florida St.Clemson2.2
North FloridaLiberty-7.3
Ball St.Northern Illinois7.5
Central MichiganEastern Michigan-0.7
OhioMiami (O)12.0
Bowling GreenBuffalo-5.3
MississippiSouth Carolina3.1
Texas A&MFlorida0.1
Georgia TechNC St.1.5
Illinois St.Northern Iowa-3.8
Southern IllinoisBradley-1.6
Missouri St.Indiana St.13.9
Ohio St.Minnesota11.4
New MexicoWyoming-6.4
Oregon St.Colorado-4.7
TCUIowa St.2.8
UC San DiegoUC Irvine-6.6
San Diego St.Utah St.3.3
NevadaSan Jose St.14.0

February 9, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Wednesday, February 9, 2022

UNC AshevilleHampton10.5
RutgersOhio St.-4.1
Seton HallXavier2.6
Boston UArmy8.2
Holy CrossLoyola (MD)-4.9
South FloridaCincinnati-8.7
PresbyterianHigh Point2.0
North Carolina A&TCharleston Southern10.2
NC St.Wake Forest-3.9
Miami (Fla.)Georgia Tech8.8
Notre DameLouisville7.5
New HampshireNJIT7.3
Stony BrookUMass Lowell3.2
Maryland Baltimore Co.Hartford6.6
North FloridaBellarmine-1.7
JacksonvilleEastern Kentucky3.5
Youngstown St.Oakland-4.2
Robert MorrisDetroit-2.9
MassachusettsGeorge Washington8.1
George MasonRichmond-0.7
DavidsonSaint Joseph’s11.1
ChattanoogaWestern Carolina17.4
Delaware St.Maryland-Eastern Shore-7.4
StetsonJacksonville St.-7.2
Kennesaw St.Central Arkansas11.4
Florida Gulf CoastNorth Alabama6.7
Kansas St.Baylor-6.9
Green BayWright St.-7.4
MilwaukeeNorthern Kentucky-2.4
Northern IowaSouthern Illinois5.8
Illinois St.Valparaiso3.3
DrakeMissouri St.-0.2
OklahomaTexas Tech-3.7
Mississippi St.Tennessee-3.6
Florida St.Pittsburgh10.7
BradleyLoyola (Chi.)-3.5
Oregon St.California-0.4
San Jose St.San Diego St.-15.9

February 2, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Wednesday, February 2, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:00 am
Abilene ChristianChicago St.18.3
UNC AshevilleLongwood0.1
RadfordCharleston Southern10.4
Loyola (MD)Army3.3
East CarolinaTemple0.2
HamptonUSC Upstate-2.6
High PointGardner-Webb-2.2
Miami (Fla.)Notre Dame3.1
Wake ForestPittsburgh13.8
ClemsonFlorida St.3.7
MaineUMass Lowell-7.8
New HampshireHartford5.2
Stony BrookBinghamton7.6
Indiana St.Drake-3.9
George WashingtonLa Salle1.1
George MasonSaint Louis-2.1
FordhamRhode Island-4.4
Western CarolinaEast Tennessee St.-4.8
UNC GreensboroVMI1.8
FurmanThe Citadel16.1
Delaware St.Coppin St.-11.1
UT Rio Grande ValleyLamar6.8
Northern IowaBradley2.3
Loyola (Chi.)Illinois St.14.9
NC St.Syracuse0.5
Virginia TechGeorgia Tech11.7
Kansas St.Oklahoma St.0.6
Southern IllinoisMissouri St.-3.6

Conference Tournament Action Just Four Weeks Away

The Atlantic Sun, Horizon League, and Patriot League Conference Tournaments begin play in four weeks with 29 additional conference tournament to follow. Here’s a look at each conference with the start dates and dates of their championship.

Conference Tournaments 2022BeginsEndsTeams in
America EastHigher Seed Home5128
American AthleticFort Worth, TX101311
Atlantic 10Washington, DC91314
Atlantic CoastBrooklyn81215
Atlantic SunHigher Seed Home1812
Big 12Kansas City91210
Big EastNew York91211
Big SkyBoise, ID91211
Big SouthCharlotte2612
Big TenIndianapolis91314
Big WestHenderson, NV81210
Colonial AthleticWashington, DC589
Conference USAFrisco, TX91214
HorizonSee Footnote1812
Ivy LeagueBoston12134
Metro AtlanticAtlantic City, NJ81211
Mideastern AthleticNorfolk, VA9128
Missouri ValleySt. Louis3610
Mountain WestLas Vegas6911
NortheastHigher Seed Home289
Ohio ValleyEvansville, IN258
Pac-12Las Vegas91212
PatriotHigher Seed Home1910
SouthernAsheville, NC4710
SouthlandKaty, TX9138
Southwestern AthleticBirmingham9128
SummitSioux Falls, SD588
Sun BeltPensacola, FL3712
West CoastLas Vegas3810
Western AthleticLas Vegas8129
Footnote : The opening two rounds played on higher seed home. Final 2 rounds will be played in Indianapolis

January 24, 2022

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:27 am
4IllinoisTexas TechUCLAXavier
5Michigan St.TennesseeAlabamaOhio St.
7BYULoyola (Chi.)Seton HallIowa St.
8MarquetteWake ForestNorth CarolinaIowa
9Colorado St.Saint Mary’sIndianaSan Francisco
10San Diego St.FloridaDavidsonMurray St.
11OregonFlorida St.Miami (Fla.)TCU
12UABChattanoogaMichiganCreightonVirginia TechWyoming
13IonaToledoVermontSouth Dakota St.
14WagnerNew Mexico St.TowsonOakland
15LibertyPrincetonSouth AlabamaUC-Riverside
16NavyMontana St.Texas SouthernLongwoodNorfolk St.Texas A&M-CC

Best of the Rest

69Boise St.
71Texas A&M
72Mississippi St.
74Saint Louis
75Missouri St.

January 21, 2022

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

4DukeTexas TechConnecticutXavier
5WisconsinTexasUCLAOhio St.
6Loyola (Chi.)AlabamaIowaIowa St.
7Michigan St.USCIndianaSeton Hall
9BYUSan Diego St.North CarolinaMiami (Fla.)
10Colorado St.DavidsonCreightonWake Forest
11Saint Mary’sBoise St.West VirginiaOregonFlorida St.
12Murray St.UABChattanoogaTCUSan Francisco
14WagnerGrand CanyonSouth Dakota St.Oakland
15LibertyTexas St.UC-IrvinePrinceton
16NavyMontana St.LongwoodNorfolk St.Texas A&M-CCTexas Southern

Last Four Byes: Wake Forest, Saint Mary’s, Boise St., West Virginia

Last Four In: Oregon, Florida St., TCU, San Francisco

First Four Out: Wyoming, Mississippi St., Texas A&M, Michigan

Next Four Out: Belmont, Arkansas, Dayton, Fresno St.

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