The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 12, 2017

Sunday March Madness Update

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:48 am

Rhode Island won an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament by topping VCU in the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament.  The Rams now must be moved into first round bye status, so now a new team must be lowered into the First Four in Dayton.

Our Gurus will not have time to send us those teams, so we will go with the lowest team that received a bye prior to URI being moved up.

Thus, Vanderbilt moves down to the First Four as an 11-seed to face USC and Wake Forest moves to a 12-seed to Kansas State in the other First Four game.

August 24, 2011

2011 Atlantic Coast Conference Preview

2011 Atlantic Coast Conference Preview

 

Last year, Virginia Tech and Florida State met in the ACC Championship Game for the second time in the history of the game.  The Hokies won to advance to the Orange Bowl, where they ran into the new “greatest quarterback ever” in Andrew Luck and Stanford.

 

This year, it looks like a strong possibility that the two powers will once again meet in the ACC Championship Game.  Both teams are national title contenders as well.  Florida State appears to be the stronger team as the season starts, but Virginia Tech doesn’t have a Boise State or Alabama at the start of the schedule this year.  Two teams, North Carolina and Miami, were hit with summer news that could greatly affect their showing this season.  Butch Davis was fired at North Carolina, while Miami may be looking at a possible death penalty.  This could be the season where some of the former bottom feeders move up at the expense of programs in trouble.

 

ATLANTIC DIVISION

 

Florida State

 

OFFENSE

Quarterback

E. J. Manuel takes over as starter for Christian Ponder.  He started twice last year and completed 70% of his passes and passed for an excellent 9.3 yards per attempt.  Manuel is also a much better runner than Ponder, so this position will actually be as strong or even stronger this year—as long as Manuel stays healthy.

 

Receivers

Had Taiwan Easterling not decided to become a future Chicago Cub, this might have been one of the 10 best in the nation.  It will still be one of the two best in the ACC.  Bert Reed is an excellent possession receiver; he led the Seminoles with 58 receptions.  Willie Haulstead is more of a deep threat; he led the ‘Noles with 15.4 yards per reception and six touchdowns.  Tight end Beau Reliford caught just 19 passes, but he should contribute more this season.

 

Running Backs

The situation is in limbo here.  Starter Chris Thompson has a bad back, and he is not getting many reps in practice and has missed multiple practices.  Last year, he led FSU with 845 yards while averaging 6.3 yards per carry.  Backups Ty Jones and Jermaine Thomas are both capable.  Jones has been a number one back in the past. 

 

Offensive Line

This is Coach Jimbo Fisher’s only concern on this side of the ball, and it really isn’t much of a concern.  Tackle Zebrie Sanders is recovering from a groin injury, and center David Spurlock has missed time and only recently began practicing in full pads.  Tackle Andrew Datko is the star of this unit.

 

 

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

Simply, this is the best front four in the ACC and one of the top five nationally.  End Brandon Jenkins finished second in the league with 13 ½ sacks and 21 ½ tackles for loss.  If he goes pro, he could be the first defensive lineman taken in the 2012 NFL Draft.  Tackles Jaccobi McDaniel and Everett Dawkins make it difficult for enemy backs to run between the tackles.  As a unit, FSU led the nation with 48 sacks.

 

Linebackers

Nigel Bradham is the only returning starter to this unit.  Bradham led the Seminoles with 98 tackles and recorded five sacks and five passes defended.  Christian Jones has the potential to be an all-conference player in his sophomore season.

 

Secondary

All four starters return, but not all are guaranteed a starting spot this year.  The two-deep is hands down the best in the league.  Cornerbacks Greg Reid and Xavier Rhodes teamed for 33 passes defended.  Lamarcus Joiner will start at one of the safety spots, meaning either Terrance Parks or Nick Moody will drop to second team.

 

OTHER

Punter Shawn Powell and place kicker Dustin Hopkins are the best in the ACC at their positions.  Hopkins has enough leg to connect from 60 yards.  Reid is one of the best punt returners in the nation.

 

SUMMARY

We believe FSU will score 35-40 points and gain 400-425 yards per game, while yielding about 17 points and 325-350 yards per game.  Their schedule has one big obstacle in it—a rematch with number one Oklahoma at Doak Campbell Stadium.  In league play, the Seminoles must visit Clemson and Boston College.  The finale with Florida may not be the tough game it has been in the past.

 

It is a big if to expect FSU to beat Oklahoma, but it is possible.  If they win that one, then their destination could easily be New Orleans, and we are not talking the Sugar Bowl.  11-1 headed into the ACC Championship is very possible.

 

Clemson

 

OFFENSE

Quarterback

Coach Dabo Swinney’s best recruiting effort may have taken place after the season.  Chad Morris comes in from Tulsa to take over at Offensive Coordinator.  So, expect a move to a no-huddle, hurry-up offense.  Can new starter Tajh Boyd impersonate G. J. Kinne?  Behind him are two true freshmen.  Boyd played in seven games and completed just 52% of his passes as a freshman.

 

Receivers

Wideout DeAndre Hopkins and Tight end Dwayne Allen give Boyd a couple of quality targets, but after that, the book is out on the rest of this group.  Hopkins led CU with 52 receptions, 637 yards, and four touchdowns.  Allen could compete for a final spot on the Mackie Award list.  True freshman Sammy Watkins could be the difference in making this a great unit or a better than average unit.

 

Running Backs

The Tigers lose Jamie Harper, who is now a Tennessee Titan.  Andre Ellington returns after starting six games and rushing for 686 yards and 10 touchdowns.  If he stays healthy, he could double that amount this year.

 

Offensive Line

The biggest concern here is the learning curve.  Four starters return from last year, but all the blocking schemes will be radically different.  Center Dalton Freeman has the talent to receive votes for the Rimington Award.  Guard Antoine McClain and tackle Landon Walker could appear on one of the postseason all-conference teams.

 

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

This is going to be a liability and the reason why CU will not compete with Florida State for the ACC Atlantic Division title.  Da’Quan Bowers and his 26 tackles for loss is now a Tampa Bay Buccaneer.  Jarvis Jenkins is now a Washington Redskin.  The new replacements are not in their league.  The two returning starters are good ones, but neither will record 26 tackles for loss, and they probably will not combine for that many.  Andre Branch is good enough to become a star end in the ACC.  Brandon Thompson is a quality tackle, but this unit will take a big step backward.

 

Linebackers

Middle linebacker Corico Hawkins is the only returning starter to this unit.  He came up with 10 stops for loss last year, but he did not help much versus the pass.  A couple of true freshmen could see considerable playing time this year.  For now, sophomore Quandon Christian and Jonathan Willard will flank Hawkins.

 

Secondary

Xavier Brewer is the star of this unit.  The cornerback defended 10 passes last year.  Coty Sensabaugh was a late signee four years ago, and now the senior will finish his career as a starter.  Rashard Hall returns at one safety, while Jonathan Meeks will be the new starter at the other safety position.  Overall, this is an above average secondary but not a great one.

 

OTHER

Clemson’s schedule gives the Tigers an excellent chance to start 3-0 prior to hosting Florida State on September 24.  Home games with Troy, Wofford, and Auburn give CU a great chance to go 3-0.  Then, the Tigers host FSU and play at Virginia Tech in back-to-back weeks.

 

SUMMARY

Clemson averaged just 24 points per game and 335 yards per game last year.  With the new offense, CU should score 30-35 points per game and gain around 400 yards.  However, the new offense will make things harder for the green defense.  CU gave up just 19 points per game last year, but we see the Tigers giving up about a touchdown more in 2011.  Clemson should win eight or nine games and go bowling once again.

 

Boston College

 

OFFENSE

Quarterback

Chase Rettig is the clear number one this season, as the three quarterbacks that saw action last year all return.  Rettig passed for 1,238 yards and six touchdowns, but he threw nine interceptions and completed just 51% of his passes last year as a freshman.

 

Receivers

Boston College has been known for its tight ends, and Chris Pantale is the current star.  He caught 31 passes last year and could top that number this season.  Alex Amidon and Bobby Swigert return after combining for 55 receptions and six touchdowns.  There is a lot of experienced depth here, but it is not the most talented.

 

Running Backs

Montel Harris rushed for 1,243 yards and eight touchdowns last year, but he is going to miss some time at the start of the season due to a knee injury.  Backup Andre Williams is also a little banged up, so the Eagles are thin at this position as they start the season.  Rolandan Finch will get first crack at filling this spot until Williams and Harris are ready to go.  BC has averaged less than four yards per rush every year since Derrick Knight graduated as the all-time rushing leader in 2003.

 

Offensive Line

The Eagles have been known for developing excellent lines, but this year’s OL will be a liability for 3rd year coach Frank Spaziani.  Only two starters return, and one of those two will miss the start of the season.  Guard Nathan Richman has a back injury and will not be ready for the start of the season.  Tackle Emmett Cleary is a titan at 6-07 and 300 pounds.

 

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

The Eagles must start over almost from scratch in the trenches.  Three of the four starters from 2010 have left the building; BC gave up just a little over 80 rushing yards per game last year, and that number was not inflated by a lot of sacks.  Only tackle Kaleb Ramsey returns.  Ramsey made 7 ½ stops behind the line and finished with 39 tackles.  Max Holloway was a part-time starter last year.  He will start full-time at one end spot after leading the team with 14 tackles for loss and four sacks.

 

Linebackers

This is where the defense shines, and the reason the Eagles have a chance to repeat as the number two defense in the league.  It starts with return of consensus All-American Luke Kuechly, who led the nation with 183 tackles.  He also intercepted three passes and batted away three others.  Nick Clancy has been impressive in August drills, and he could become the new starter at the Sam position, while Kevin Pierre-Louis returns to the Will position.  Pierre-Louis was a Freshman All-American last year after recording 93 tackles.  If Clancy can repeat in games what he has done in scrimmages, this could become a top three unit.

 

Secondary

As optimistic as things are at linebacker, the secondary is almost as much pessimistic.  The dismissal of expected starting safety Okechukwu Okoroha and the back injury to cornerback Donnie Fletcher has left BC thin in the backfield.  Fletcher will miss the opening of the season.  The new safety figures to be Spenser Rositano, a true freshman.  Jim Noel started eight games last year and picked off four passes.  He will start at the other safety spot.  Cornerback Al Louis-Jean, a true freshman, will replace Fletcher until he is ready to return, while redshirt freshman Dominique Williams figures to start at the other corner spot.

 

OTHER

Boston College has yielded less than 20 points per game six of the last seven years and his not given up more than 333 yards in any of those seasons.  They have surrendered just 92 rushing yards per game in the last six seasons.

 

SUMMARY

This is a tricky season to predict Boston College’s outcome.  The Eagles could be as much as a touchdown weaker than normal to start the season due to key injuries, and their opener comes against Northwestern, a team that can beat them.  In week two, they have a trap game at Central Florida, before opening conference play in Chestnut Hill against an improved Duke team.  BC could be 3-0, 2-1, or 1-2 by this time, and that will give an excellent barometer for what will happen at the back end of the schedule.  Games four and five are as close to sure wins as they will have (hosting UMass and Wake Forest). The Eagles end the season on the road against Notre Dame and Miami.  Road games against Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Maryland will make for a tough October stretch.  If BC is to go bowling for the 13th consecutive season, they need to start 4-1 at the least.

 

North Carolina State

 

OFFENSE

Quarterback

There will be a drop-off from what they had to what they will get this year out of this position.  Russell Wilson left Raleigh with the thoughts of playing professional baseball.  He ended up playing college football in Madison, Wisconsin.  Mike Glennon takes over after completing nine passes for 78 yards last year.  Glennon saw action in three games last year, but he did play in seven as a freshman.  He won’t replicate Wilson’s numbers, but he will have some good games—and some bad games.  His mobility is a question at this point; he is not a dual threat like Wilson.

 

Receivers

The Wolfpack must replace their top two receivers from 2010.  Owen Spencer and Jarvis Williams teamed for 112 receptions and 1600+ yards.  T. J. Graham should become the go-to guy this year.  He caught 25 passes and scored four touchdowns.  Coach Tom O’Brien is concerned with this position, because the talent level drops off quite a bit after Graham.  Tight end George Bryan will be called on to be a primary receiver after catching 35 passes last year.  Look for more dropped passes and fewer yards per reception.

 

Running Backs

Mustafa Greene led NCSU with 597 rushing yards last year, but a foot injury will keep him from playing until October.  O’Brien will choose from among four contenders to replace Greene for the first month.  James Washington, Brandon Barnes, Curtis Underwood, and Anthony Creecy could all see action.  Washington and Underwood have the most experience, but Creecy has the best moves.

 

Offensive Line

What was already a concern became something a bit more concerning after the ‘Pack saw one guard leave the program and two others suffer knee injuries that will keep them out for at least the first month of the season.  Nobody on the roster will earn an all-conference award this year.  Center Camden Wentz, guard Zach Allen, and tackle R. J. Mattes at least have experience on their side.  NCSU only averaged 3.5 yards per rush last year, and the OL gave up 39 sacks with a mobile quarterback under center.

 

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

There’s more bad news on this side of the ball.  The one star in the trenches, J. R. Sweezy, is out six weeks with a foot injury.  That leaves end Jeff Rieskamp as the only player with real experience.  Rieskamp only picked up two QB sacks, but he did force 17 QB hurries. 

Linebackers

This trio is second in the conference in talent only to the group at Boston College.  Audie Cole recorded five sacks and picked up 10 ½ tackles for loss last year.  Terrell Manning added five sacks and 11 tackles for loss.  Rickey Dowdy figures to be the new starter after moving from defensive end.  The Wolfpack will miss Nate Irving, who led the team with 97 tackles and 20 ½ tackles for loss.

 

Secondary

All four starters return from 2010, but this unit is not a major plus.  Cornerback C. J. Wilson led the team with 10 passes defended, but his counterpart, David Amerson, only had one.  Safety Earl Wolff finished third on the team with 91 tackles and proved to be an effective safety blitzer.  Brandon Bishop led the team with four interceptions.

 

OTHER

O’Brien’s four years in Raleigh have seen his teams post 5-7 seasons in the odd years and advance to bowls in the even years.  The ease of the schedule could give him a chance to break that string.  After scoring almost 32 points per game and gaining more than 400, we do not see the Wolfpack matching those numbers this year.  Call it 22-26 points and 350-375 yards.  The defense could come close to matching last year’s record of 21 points and 340 yards. 

 

SUMMARY

Home games with Liberty, South Alabama, Central Michigan, and North Carolina plus a road games with Wake Forest and Virginia give NCSU a great shot for six wins.  A game at Cincinnati on Thursday, September 22, could be the best shot at a seventh win.  Do not expect another nine-win season.

 

Maryland

 

OFFENSE

Quarterback

New head coach Randy Edsall brought in former BYU head coach and LSU offensive coordinator Gary Crowton to run the Terp offense.  Crowton has an excellent quarterback to work with and an up and coming backup.  Danny O’Brien completed 57% of his passes last year for 2,438 yards and 22 touchdowns.  C. J. Brown shows promise, and if O’Brien falters or is injured, he is more than capable of playing for extended time.

 

Receivers

The Terps lost their top two receivers from a year ago, including Torrey Smith.  Smith caught 67 passes for 1,055 yards and 12 touchdowns.  The new group of receivers should improve as the season progresses, but the road could be bumpy early.

 

Quintin McCree, Ronnie Tyler, and Kevin Dorsey combined for just 44 receptions and 524 yards.  There is some depth here with true freshman Marcus Leak a highly-prized recruit.  Tony Logan could challenge for a starting nod, and Kenny Boykins should contribute.

 

Tight end Matt Furstenburg added a dozen receptions but led the team with 17.2 yards per catch.

 

Running Backs

Davin Meggett takes over full-time here after splitting time with Da’Rel Scott last year.  Meggett rushed for 720 yards, seldom losing yardage.  He should go over 1,000 this year.

 

Offensive Line

Three starters return, but there are no stars on this unit.  The dismissal of guard Justin Lewis and the double broken legs of tackle Pete DeSouza from a motorcycle accident makes this a thin unit. Center Bennett Fulper, guard Andrew Gonnella and tackle R. J. Dill are the experienced veterans.

 

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

All four starters from 2010 return this year, but end Justin Anderson has an injured foot.  He had lost his starting spot to Isaiah Ross.  The strength of this unit is at tackle.  A. J. Francis and Joe Vellano teamed for 107 tackles and 17 ½ stops for loss.  True freshman Keith Bowers could see the field early.

 

Linebackers

There is no depth at linebacker, so the three starters better stay healthy and be able to play for long stretches.  Kenny Tate moves to linebacker from safety after he made 100 tackles with 8 ½ for loss.  He intercepted three passes and broke up four others.  Demetrius Hartsfield finished third on the team with 88 tackles.

 

With no real depth here, Edsall moved Avery Graham from cornerback to a backup linebacker spot.  Graham is 5-10 and weighs just 195 pounds.

 

Secondary

Cornerbacks Cameron Chism and Trenton Hughes return after recording 18 passes defended, but only one interception.  Matt Robinson and Eric Franklin will not be able to match the efforts by last year’s safeties.

 

OTHER

Logan is an excellent punt returner.  In 2010, he took two punts to the house while averaging 18.1 yards per return.

 

SUMMARY

Edsall has a chance to send the Terps to a bowl this year, but the team will not match last year’s results.  The schedule offers them no favors.  Out of the league, the Terps host West Virginia, Temple, and Towson.  They face Notre Dame at Fedex Field (Washington Redskins home), which is basically a home game.  It looks like Maryland will go 2-2 in those games.  Maryland will have to break even in the league just to get to 6-6.

 

Wake Forest

 

OFFENSE

Quarterback

Tanner Price edged out Ted Stachitas in the spring.  As a freshman, Price led the Demon Deacons with 1,349 passing yards and seven touchdowns.  He completed 56.8%, but he only averaged 5.6 yards per attempt.  True freshman Kevin Sousa is the top incoming recruit, but he may not see the field this year.

 

Receivers

This unit is not all that strong, but it has to be an improvement over last year, when WF averaged just 144 passing yards per game.  Chris Givens returns after leading the Deacs with 35 receptions and four touchdowns.  However, Givens has a hamstring injury, and his status for the start of the season is unclear.  Danny Dembry (8 receptions) may start in his place.  Michael Campanero should more than double his number of catches in 2011, but he only caught 10 last year.  Tight end Andrew Parker is more of a run-blocker, while Cameron Ford is the better route runner.

 

Running Backs

The Demon Deacons averaged more than four yards per carry last year for the first time in five years.  Josh Harris returns after gaining 720 yards and scoring seven times.  He averaged 5.7 yards per rush.  Two quality backs will back him up.  Brandon Pendergrass and Nick Knott should both see action this season.

 

Offensive Line

Four starters return to the line, so this unit should fare better this year.  However, they are prone to giving up sacks.  Four of the five are seniors, so this unit will keep mistakes to a minimum.  Guard Joe Looney is the one candidate likely to appear on an all-conference ballot. 

 

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

Wake Forest coach Jim Grobe switched the team from a 4-3 to a 3-4 in the middle of last year’s season.  It made Nikita Whitlock a nose guard instead of a defensive tackle.  Semantics aside, Whitlock recorded 10 ½ tackles for loss.  He got better as the season progressed.  Zach Thompson and Tristan Dorty will be the two new starters at end.  Dorty was a linebacker last year and made 7 ½ tackles for losses.

 

Linebackers

Kyle Wilber figures to be the star of this unit.  He comes off a season in which he led the team with 14 ½ stops behind the line and six sacks.  He also got his paws in on four balls to send them harmlessly to the ground.  Scott Betros, Justin Jackson, and Joey Ehrmann figure to make up the rest of the quartet.  Wilber has been nursing a sore hamstring, and in his absence, Zachary Allen has been subbing for him.  While not overpowering, this unit should improve this year if Wilber can get healthy.

 

Secondary

Three starters return, led by safety Cyhl Quarles, who recorded 71 stops last year.  Kenny Okoro and Merrill Noel will start at the corners, while Joe Bush starts at the other safety spot.  This unit has room for improvement after giving up 238 passing yards per game in 2010.

 

OTHER

Kicker Jimmy Newman was almost perfect last year.  He connected on all of his PAT attempts and was 12 of 13 in field goal attempted.

 

SUMMARY

The non-conference part of the schedule is Jekyll and Hyde.  Wake Forest plays at Syracuse and hosts Notre Dame, two games the Deacons figure to lose.  They host Gardner-Webb, the only sure thing on the schedule this year.  They host Vanderbilt in the season finale, and that game should be a close one.  Wake Forest will go 2-2 or 1-3 in those four games.  In the ACC, the Deacs host North Carolina State and Maryland, the two teams that figure to be just above them in the preseason polls.  Road games with North Carolina and Duke could be winnable based on how WF has performed leading up to those games.

 

There are not enough winnable games on the schedule to see any way Wake Forest could get to six wins.  Four wins seem about right.

 

COASTAL DIVISION

 

Virginia Tech

 

OFFENSE

Quarterback

Replacing all-time leading passer Tyrod Taylor will be tough.  Taylor passed for 2,743 yards with a 24/5 TD/int ratio, while rushing for more than 900 yards (sacks removed).

 

Logan Thomas is big and mobile.  At 6-6 and almost 250 pounds, he is built like a tight end and was recruited to Tech as an H-Back.  Thomas saw limited action as a freshman, completing 12 of 26 passes for just 107 yards, while rushing for 29 yards on five carries. 

 

Receivers

Coach Frank Beamer has three receivers capable of challenging for all-conference honors.  Jarrett Boykin leads the way after grabbing a team-high 53 receptions in 2010.  He averaged 16 yards per catch.  Danny Coale averaged nearly 19 yards on his 39 receptions, while former QB Marcus Davis added 19 receptions.  Chris Drager has moved from tight end to defensive end and back to tight end. Eric Martin shows promise and could be used in a double tight end formation.

 

Running Backs

David Wilson has 1,000-yard potential, and the Hokies will not miss much of a beat after losing two key backs, one of whom signed with the Arizona Cardinals.  Three players are competing for the backup position.  Josh Oglesby is the leader, followed by Tony Gregory and Michael Holmes.

 

Offensive Line

This shaped up to be one of the best in the country until injuries hit two starters.  Guard Greg Kosal suffered a shoulder injury, and tackle Blake DeChristopher went down with a pectoral injury.  Both players are well-ahead of schedule in their return, but neither may be ready for the season-opener.  David Wang is working as Kosal’s replacement, and Nick Becton, Michael Via, or Vinston Painter will fill in at tackle.

 

Center Andrew Miller takes over the starting role after seeing extensive playing time as a freshman.  He is a former high school state wrestling champion and the strongest player on the line.  Guard James Brooks made the 2nd team all-conference squad last year.

 

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

Defensive coordinator Bud Foster has been at VT for a quarter century.  Last year, a young defensive line led to the Hokies giving up more than 20 points per game and 300 yards per game for the first time since 2003.  This year’s defensive line is a concern once again with three new starters.

 

The one holdover is tackle Antoine Hopkins.  His brother Derrick will start opposite him.  The new ends are James Gayle and J. R. Collins, with redshirt freshman Zack McCray and true freshman Luther Maddy backing them up.  The potential is there for this unit to be tougher to run on than last year and with an equal pass rush.

 

Linebackers

The Hokies have both quality and quantity here, as they can go two-deep with little drop-off in talent.  Bruce Taylor is a probably 1st team All-ACC middle linebacker.  He led VT with 91 tackles and 15 ½ for loss last year with six sacks and 12 QB hurries.  He also showed his worth as a pass defender, separating the receiver from the ball four times.  Telvion Clark and Tariq Edwards are competing for one outside spot, while Jeron Gouveia-Winslow is competing with Nick Dew for the other spot.

 

Secondary

The Hokies have excellent talent, but they are not as deep here as Beamer would like to be.  Cornerback Jayron Hosley is the best in the league at his position.  He led the ACC with nine interceptions and finished tied for first with 17 passes defended.  Kyle Fuller replaces all-star Rashad Campbell; Fuller had six passes defended as a reserve last year.

 

Safeties Antoine Exum and Eddie Watley switched positions this summer, with Exum moving to free safety and Whitley moving to rover.  

 

OTHER

This is a much easier schedule for VT than the last two.  Appalachian State replaces Boise State and Alabama as the season opener.  Road trips to East Carolina and Marshall book-end a home game with Arkansas State.  The Hokies get Clemson, Miami, and Boston College at home and avoid Florida State.  They could easily run the table in the regular season.  One loss will eliminate them from any national championship talk.  They have to go 13-0 and hope two other big name teams do not do so as well.

 

SUMMARY

We believe Thomas will emerge as an excellent quarterback, but he will not be as consistent as his predecessor.  His percentage will be lower, but his yards per reception could be higher.  Look for VT to average 28-30 points per game and 375-400 yards per game.  On defense, the Hokies will recover from last year’s aberration and give up less than 20 points and 300 yards again.  A 12-0 regular season is a strong possibility, but remember this team has lost some early games to teams they should have beaten handily.  Remember James Madison last year and East Carolina in 2008?

 

Miami

Note: The PiRate Ratings have not been able to adjust for the recent news that emerged from Miami.  School President Donna Shalala revealed that 15 current players are being investigated for receiving illegal benefits from Miami booster and convicted felon Nevin Shapiro.  Those names were not release, but Shapiro implicated 12 players.  Since we do not know at this point just how involved things are, we cannot begin to deduct points from their rating.  We can try to put a number on the intangible destruction of the program as a whole, but for now, their PiRate Rating shows them as the second best team in the Coastal Division.

 

OFFENSE

Quarterback

Miami quarterbacks were a bit too generous with the ball last year, throwing 26 interceptions (2/game, almost 6% of all passes).  New head coach Al Golden faces an additional headache because the projected starter is one of the 12 current Hurricanes implicated by Shapiro.  Jacory Harris may or may not get to suit up this year for his senior season.  Harris has quite an arm, but he has not been accurate.

 

Sophomore Stephen Morris will inherit the position if Harris is declared ineligible.  Morris started the four times last year and posted stats similar to Harris—54% completions 6% interceptions.  He did average better than 15 yards per completion. 

 

Receivers

Again, it is unsure if this position will be decimated with ineligibility.  Travis Benjamin and Aldarius Johnson combined for 58 receptions and 900 yards last year; both were accused by Shapiro.  That would leave LaRon Byrd as the only experienced receiver.  He caught 41 passes, but Byrd does not have the elusiveness of the other two.  True freshman Phillip Dorsett could be thrust into action immediately.

 

The top two tight ends, USC transfer Blake Ayles and Chase Ford, have both missed practices with injuries.  Ayles was a 5-star recruit when he entered Trojanland four years ago.

 

Running Backs

Lamar Miller is a speedster, who can break open a long gain with the slightest of daylight.  He averaged six yards per carry and scored six times.  Mike James will back him up.

 

Offensive Line

This unit has a lot of depth, even with the loss of tackle Seantrel Henderson, who underwent back surgery and should miss the season.

 

Guard Brandon Washington made the 1st Team All-ACC squad, while center Tyler Horn earned 3rd Team honors.  Harland Gunn will start at guard.  Joel Figueora is a sixth year senior who can play either guard or tackle.  Redshirt Malcolm Bunche could start at tackle, while Jermaine Johnson and Jon Feliciano will provide depth.

 

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

This area is going to take a major hit if its five implicated players are declared ineligible.  Projected starting tackle Marcus Forston, starting ends Marcus Robinson and Olivier Vernon, and key backups Adewale Ojomo and Dyron Dye are the heart and soul of the line.  Forston, Vernon, and Ojomo represent 114 tackles, 14 sacks, 30 tackles for loss.

 

Tackle Micanor Regis was not implicated by Shapiro.  He made 42 tackles with eight for loss.  True freshman Anthony Chickillo could join seldom used Andrew Smith at end.

 

Linebackers

One player was accused from this unit, but he is the best defender on the team.  Sean Spence finished second on the team last year with 111 tackles, 17 for loss.  Spence also knocked away six passes.  If he becomes ineligible, outside linebacker Ramon Buchanan will become the leader of this unit.  The vacant middle linebacker spot will go to Jordan Futch, with true freshman Gionni Paul providing backup.

 

Secondary

75% of the expected starting defensive backfield is on Shapiro’s List.  Cornerback JoJo Nicolas and Safeties Ray Ray Armstrong and Vaughn Telemaque combined for 173 tackles and 15 passes defended.  This unit will become a major liability if these players are declared ineligible, and Miami will give up at least 100 extra yards through the air than they would have with the three starters in the lineup.

 

OTHER

Shapiro accused 12 players, but the university is investigating 15.  Aside from the possible loss of eligibility, the total repercussions are greater than just the loss of 12 or 15 players.  Others will “quit” on the team, and the situation will steamroller into a catastrophe.  The Hurricanes were in line to achieve 10 to 12 wins this year if the quarterbacks could cut down on interceptions.  It could get ugly in Coral Gables, and “The U” could be looking at a losing season.

 

SUMMARY

The schedule offers few breathers.  Miami begins the season playing at Maryland on Labor Day.  Then, the ‘Canes host Ohio State in what will receive some sarcastic billing as convicts vs. convicts.  A home game with Kansas State now becomes a losable game.  Bethune-Cookman is the only sure win if all the players are lost.

 

With all the players available, Miami could go 10-2.  Without them, the Hurricanes could finish with four or five wins.  They are somewhere between 17 and 25 points weaker per game if the players are declared ineligible.  Golden inherits a mess, and we would not be surprised if he leaves after just one season.

 

North Carolina

Here is another situation, but it pales in comparison to the one in Miami.  Butch Davis was fired as head coach late in the off-season, and defensive coordinator Everett Withers was appointed as interim head coach.

 

OFFENSE

Quarterback

Bryn Renner gets first crack at replacing T. J. Yates.  Yates completed 67% of his passes for 3,418 yards and 19 touchdowns last year, topping the eight-yard per attempt mark.  Renner threw two passes, completing one for 14 yards.  The Tar Heels passed for 264 yards per game in 2010, and it would be a stretch to think Renner can match that number.  Look for a considerable decline here.

 

Receivers

Renner has the top two receivers returning from 2010.  Dwight Jones led the club with 62 receptions and 946 yards.  Erik Highsmith finished second with 348 yards.  Jheranie Boyd is the wildcard here.  He took a pass from Yates and ran 97 yards for a score against LSU in last year’s opener, en route to a 221-yard night.  He was only 8 for 89 after that.  He also was used to run the wide reverse and gained 62 yards on 10 attempts.  This unit is loaded.

 

Running Backs

This unit loses its top three players from last year.  It welcomes back Ryan Houston, who missed last year with an injury.  Houston is not fast, but he requires two or more defenders to bring him down.  Houston will remind some fans of Jerome Bettis.  However, he has not participated in contact drills due to his shoulder surgery earlier this year.  The roster is thin after Houston with redshirt and true freshmen backing him up.

 

Offensive Line

This is where the Carolina offense needs to improve the most.  The Tar Heels’ line gave up 37 sacks last year.  Three starters return this year—center Cam Holland, guard Jonathan Cooper, and tackle James Hurst.  Cooper was a 2nd Team All-ACC player, while Hurst earned Freshman All-American accolades.  Travis Bond started against Tennessee in the Music City Bowl, and he will man the vacant guard position, while Brennan Williams will take over at tackle.

 

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

What could have been the top DL in the nation last year turned into an average line due to the ineligibility of two top players.  End Quinton Coples took advantage of his chance to start and bankrolled it into a spot on the All-ACC first team.  He finished third in the league with 10 sacks and was credited with 12 QB Hurries.  Donte Paige-Moss starts at the other end spot.  Moss recorded 13 ½ stops behind the line.  Withers can count on three players to rotate at the tackle positions.  Tydreke Powell, Sylvester Williams, and Jordan Nix are all listed as 1st string players.  While not as talented as what 2010 could have been, this is one of the best lines in the league.

 

Linebackers

Two starters return from last year; Kevin Reddick and Zach Brown finished one-two in tackles with 74 and 72 respectively.  Reddick has all-conference potential.  Darius Lipford will be the new starter.  This unit is about average for the ACC.

 

Secondary

A hand injury to expected starting cornerback Jabari Price will keep him out for at least all of September.  Charles Brown will miss the opener after having to sit out a game, so two new cornerbacks will start at the beginning of the season.  Safety Tre Boston might start at cornerback until Brown and Price are back.  Matt Merletti will start at one safety position.  Wide receiver Todd Harrelson moves to cornerback to fill in, and true freshman Tim Scott might start the opening game.

 

Brown is the star of this unit, but UNC will sorely miss Da’Norris Searcy and Deunta Williams.  Opponents will find holes in the Carolina secondary.

 

OTHER

There is only one cupcake on the schedule, and James Madison must be taken seriously; just ask Virginia Tech!  The remainder of non-league games include home games with Rutgers and Louisville and a trip to East Carolina.  UNC will be fortunate to go 3-1 in those four games.  UNC draws Virginia, Clemson, and North Carolina State from the Atlantic and avoids Florida State.  It looks like a 4-4 conference mark will be their limit this year; interim coaches are hit or miss.

 

SUMMARY

The Tar Heels will try to rely on more lengthy drives rather than trying to make quick touchdowns.  They averaged just 25 points per game but gained close to 400 yards per game.  The yardage definitely will drop, but the scoring could be about the same and not much less if any.

 

Defensively, the ‘Heels will go as far as their front four will take them.  The back seven is a little suspect, especially in the secondary.  Opponents will complete 60% of their passes and gain more than 200 yards through the air.  We believe UNC will surrender about as many points as they score.  It looks like another so-so season in Chapel Hill, but cheer up Carolina Fans—basketball season is not that far away.

 

Duke

 

OFFENSE

Quarterback

If Harris is ineligible at Miami, Duke’s Sean Renfree will be the only returning quarterback in the Coastal Division.  Renfree is on the cusp of breaking out into Coach David Cutcliffe’s next star passer.  He tutored a couple of guys with the last name of Manning, so he knows how to develop passers.

 

Renfree threw for more than 3,100 yards and completed better than 61% of his passes last year.  14 of those passes went for touchdowns, but 17 went into the wrong pair of hands.  If he can reduce his mistakes this year, we could be looking at an All-ACC performer.

 

Receivers

Renfree has some quality players to pass to.  Conner Vernon and Donovan Varner could both finish in the top five in the league in receptions and yardage after combining for 133 catches for 1,709 yards last year.  Brandon Braxton will at least double his amount of receptions this year after grabbing 14 passes in 2010.  Tight end Cooper Helfet added 34 receptions, so this group has talent. Keep an eye on true freshman Jamison Crowder.

 

Running Backs

At Duke, 110 yards per game is an exemplary amount of rushing yards.  It was the most in five seasons in Durham.  Desmond Scott, Josh Snead, and Juwan Thompson all return after sharing the load last year, and the Duke running game should top 100 yards again this season.  The quartet will also top four yards per carry, making this unit abnormally strong in 2011—at least for Duke.

 

Offensive Line

This is the major question mark on this side of the ball.  The Blue Devils’ offensive line has been rather offensive in recent years.  The loss of starting center Brian Moore for an indefinite amount of time (fractured forearm) clouds the issue even more.

 

Cutcliffe has recruited well the last couple of years, and we have a sneaky suspicion that the offensive line will improve to mediocrity this season.  At Duke, mediocre is a milestone.

 

Dave Harding was an outstanding freshman last year in a part-time starter role.  He will move in from guard and take over at center.  Perry Simmons and Kyle Hill will protect the flanks and open up holes at their tackle positions.

 

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

The biggest addition to the defensive line will not suit up once this season.  He is new defensive line coach Rick Petri.  Petri has over 30 years of successful experience.

 

Petri will mold a defensive line that improves on the 200+ yards allowed rushing and only 12 sacks.  Duke switches to a 4-2-5 defense this year.  Sydney Sarmiento and Charlie Hatcher return to the inside.  Sarmiento shows promise and could emerge as a star in the next couple of years, while Hatcher is a two-gap plugger.  He finished second on the team last year with 7 ½ tackles for loss.  End Kenny Anunike is nursing a bad ankle and could miss the opener, but redshirt freshman Dezmond Johnson could step in and produce for the Blue Devils.

 

Linebackers

This is the biggest liability on the team.  Mike linebacker Kelby Brown is smaller than some safeties, and he is coming back from a knee injury.  Austin Gamble will team up to form a rather weak two-man tandem. Brown hustles and makes a lot of plays, but frequently backs get an extra yard or two.

 

Secondary

Three starters return to a unit that is not that far from respectability.  Safety Matt Daniels is the star of this unit.  He played admirably against both the run and pass last year, coming up with six stops behind the line and batting away seven passes with an interception.  Lee Butler returns at a safety position after posting nine passes defended.  August Campbell will take on the new hybrid safety/linebacker position.

 

Ross Cockrell led the Blue Devils with three interceptions.  He returns at one cornerback spot, while Zach Greene figures to start at the other spot.

 

OTHER

Duke missed a seven-win season by a thin margin last year.  Close losses to Wake Forest, Maryland, Boston College, and North Carolina left Duke at 3-9 instead.  If the offense improves by four to five points, and the defense does the same, Duke could be looking at its first six-win season since 1994.

 

SUMMARY

We admit here at the PiRate Ratings that we have the highest esteem for Coach Cutcliffe and believe he will guide Duke back to a bowl game—if not this year, then next.  Duke can win six games this year.

 

The schedule has become somewhat easier since the start of summer.  Duke’s opening game against Richmond got a lot easier when the Spiders had to replace their coach following his DUI arrest less than two weeks before the game.  The Blue Devils also face Miami and North Carolina, two more teams facing dilemmas.

 

Add Tulane and Florida International as well as home games with Georgia Tech and Wake Forest and a road game with Virginia, and you can make a case for six wins.

 

Virginia

 

OFFENSE

Quarterback

Uh-oh!  Virginia is in a bit of a mess here.  It’s nice to have four options at quarterback, but Coach Mike London is having to choose from a weakness and not a strength.  The loss of Marc Verica will cause UVA to drop drastically in the passing game. 

 

Sophomore Michael Rocco appears to hold a slight edge at this point after throwing 25 passes last year.  True freshman David Watford could eventually be the man under center, while Michael Strauss and Ross Metheny are in the mix.  Whoever ends up playing, expect a possibility of 100 less passing yards this season.

 

Receivers

The Cavs must replace their top play-maker from 2010.  Dontrelle Inman averaged 18 yards on his 51 receptions, and there is nobody on the roster capable of matching those numbers.

 

Kris Burd actually led in receptions with 58, but he is the only receiver capable of becoming a breakaway threat.  True freshman Darius Jennings could emerge as a key player in his first season.

 

Running Backs

Perry Jones was a co-primary option last year and rushed for 646 yards and a touchdown.  The absence of Keith Payne and his ability to convert on third and short and at the goal line will cost more than his 750 rushing yards.

 

Offensive Line

The only reason for optimism on offense this year is a rather decent and experienced offensive line.  Four starters return, including tackle Morgan Moses, who stood out as a freshman last year.  Center Anthony Mihota, guard Austin Pasztor, and tackle Oday Aboushi are the other three returning starters.  This unit is the only real plus on the 2011 offense.

 

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

Virginia could not stop enemy backs last year and was torched for more than 200 rushing yards per game and better than five yards per rush allowed.  The pass rush only produced 19 sacks, so there is a lot of room for improvement.

 

London will play three tackles in a rotation.  Matt Conrath, Nick Jenkins, and Will Hill will split time inside.  At end, Jake Snyder and Cam Johnson will start.  Johnson is the stud of this unit; he led the Cavs with 6 ½ sacks and 14 ½ tackles for loss.  Expect some improvement in the trenches.

 

Linebackers

This is the major liability on this side of the ball, even though all three starters return from 2010.  Middle linebacker Steve Greer, Will linebacker LaRoy Reynolds, and Sam Linebacker Aaron Taliaferro are competent but not spectacular.  The trio made 161 stops last year but only 1 ½ sacks on blitzes.

 

Secondary

The back line is quite talented, and with the addition of some quality recruits, it will have depth this year as well.  Cornerback Chase Minnifield led the Cavs with 10 passes defended including six interceptions. Safety Rodney McLeod provided excellent run support, but he needs to improve in the passing game.  True freshman Tra Nicholson takes over at the other cornerback spot.  Three other true freshmen, cornerback Brandon Phelps and safeties Anthony Harris and Darius Lee will see playing time.

 

OTHER

Virginia’s schedule will give them a chance to top last year’s four wins.  The Cavaliers should be favored in three of their four non-ACC games.  They host William & Mary in the opener, but UVA lost to W&M two years ago.  The Tribe will be tough to beat.  Virginia travels to Indiana and hosts Southern Miss and Idaho.  It is a tricky non-league slate; the Cavs could win all or lose all, but we believe they should go 3-1 or 2-2.  In ACC play, Virginia must play at Miami and North Carolina, the two schools with predicaments. If those games had been at Scott Stadium, then UVA might be figured to win both. 

 

SUMMARY

The Cavaliers return 17 starters, but three of the four missing were the top three players on offense.  We believe the new offense will have a tough time exceeding last year’s offense.  The defense will definitely be better, but the question remains: how many more plays will the stop side have to defend if the offense does not gel?

 

We believe Virginia is looking a repeat of last year.

 

Georgia Tech

 

OFFENSE

Quarterback

Joshua Nesbitt was known only for his running skills, but he ran the option like a magician.  He was on pace for a 1,000-yard rushing season before he went out for the season against Virginia Tech in game nine.  Tevin Washington started the last three regular season games plus the bowl game, and he put up similar numbers to Nesbitt.  Look for Washington to lead the team in rushing, but his passing may be no better than Nesbitt.  Tech completed just 38.1% of their passes in 2010, numbers that sound like the 1940’s and 1950’s.

 

Receivers

The top four receivers return to the fold.  Okay, the top four receivers caught a grand total of 40 passes, so this position is more about downfield blocking and getting open deep when the defense thinks you will decoy or block yet again.  Stephen Hill got open and led the team with 15 receptions; he averaged close to 20 yards per catch.

 

Running Backs

The Yellow Jackets will miss Anthony Allen, who led the ACC with 1,316 yards.  The new B-Back (fullback) is former quarterback David Sims.  He has won the job after being fourth on the depth chart in spring.  Don’t expect 1,300 yards from this position, but Sims will get the job done and force an extra defender into the box to prevent him from gaining three, four, and five yards with consistency.

 

Both starting A-backs (slot backs) return this year.  Orwin Smith and Roddy Jones combined for 869 yards, averaging 8.3 yards per carry, mostly on pitches from Nesbitt. 

 

Tech must cut down on the high number of fumbles this year.  They were -6 in turnover margin because of the numerous fumbles in the option plays.

 

Offensive Line

Even though option offenses can cover up liabilities in the blocking corps, this is still a big concern.  Two players expected to start will not be available at the beginning of the season.  Will Jackson and Phil Smith are out with injuries.  Jackson was selected as a Freshman All-American last year.  Backup guard Ryan Bailey is also out with an injury, so GT has some issues here. 

 

True freshman Trey Braun will start at one of the guard spots.  Omoregie Uzzi, the top blocker, will start at the other guard spot.

 

In the option offense, the line must make a lot of calls prior to the snap, and it requires a lot of thinking prior to reacting.  With the line in despair, this could be a problem early in the season.

 

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

This is the only area on this side of the ball that does not have a lot of holes to fill.  As it is, the defensive line is average at best.

 

All three starters return.  Nose tackle Logan Walls can adequately plug the middle.  He only made 23 tackles, but he kept blockers away from the inside linebackers.  Ends Izaan Cross and Jason Peters combined for 11 ½ tackles for loss, and Cross knocked away four passes.  This group is not the best pass rushing trio, and they allowed enemy runners to average 4.5 yards per carry.

 

Linebackers

Two starters return, but it is new starter Jeremiah Attaochu that should become the star of this mediocre quartet.  As a freshman in a reserve role, the outside linebacker registered 23 tackles with three sacks.  Steven Sylvester will man the other outside linebacker spot, while Julian Burnett and Daniel Drummond will start on the inside.  Sylvester led the Techsters with 10 ½ tackles for loss.

 

Secondary

This unit is in shambles, and it is the reason the PiRate Ratings list them as the last place team in the Coastal Division to start the season.

 

Not having much depth to start with, GT lost two players that were expected to contribute.  Fred Holton tore his Achilles tendon and is done for the season, while Ryan Ayers transferred to Liberty.

 

Louis Young will start at one cornerback.  In limited action in 2010, he made 10 tackles.  Rod Sweeting takes over at the opposite corner after recording eight passes defended.  Safeties Rashaad Reid and Isaiah Johnson have some experience, but neither will be able to replace Dominique Reese, who was tough against both the run and pass.  Look for GT to give up more than 225 yards per game through the air.

 

OTHER

Tech’s special teams were not that special last year.  They had trouble covering punts, and there was virtually no help with punt returns.  Expected kick returner B. J. Bostic begins the season in street clothes and may be a medical redshirt.

 

SUMMARY

Georgia Tech led the nation in rushing with an averaged of 323 yards per game, and they could lead the nation again this season.  However, teams will put eight and nine in the box and force Tech to pass.  An option team needs to be able to average over eight yards per pass attempt to scare defenses into staying honest; Tech averaged just 6.5 yards and will more than likely do no better this year.  It adds up to some stagnation on offense, so we do not see the Yellow Jackets equaling their offensive production of 2010 (26 points and 407 yards).

 

Defense is going to be a sore spot, and second year coordinator Al Groh has a short fuse that could cause some dissension if early problems develop.  We do not like the prospects for this program in 2011.

 

Only an easy September schedule could save the season.  GT hosts Western Carolina to start the season and then visits Middle Tennessee.  They return to host Kansas and North Carolina to close out the month.  The Jackets need to be 4-0 if they plan on going to a bowl game, because the schedule is tough once October arrives.  If GT starts 2-2, then they will finish with four or five wins.

 

2011 Atlantic Coast Conference Media Poll

Team

1st Place Votes

Points

Atlantic Division

 

 

Florida State

65

420

Clemson

4

286

N. C. State

 

270

Boston College

2

224

Maryland

 

211

Wake Forest

 

80

 

 

 

Coastal Division

 

 

Virginia Tech

66

421

Miami

4

328

North Carolina

 

287

Georgia Tech

1

226

Virginia

 

132

Duke

 

96

 

 

 

ACC Championship

 

Florida State

 

50

Virginia Tech

 

18

Clemson

 

2

Boston College

 

1

 

 

2011 Big East Conference PiRate Ratings

Team

PiRate #

Prediction

Atlantic Division

 

 

Florida St.

123.3

8-0/13-0 *

Clemson

110.3

5-3/8-4

Boston Coll.

109.7

3-5/6-6

N.C. State

109.1

4-4/7-5

Maryland

106.5

4-4/6-6

Wake Forest

98.5

1-7/3-9

   

 

Coastal Division  

 

Va. Tech

116.1

8-0/12-1

Miami

115.2

3-5/5-7 ^

N. Carolina

106.8

4-4/7-5

Duke

99.8

3-5/6-6

Virginia

97.9

2-6/4-8

Georgia Tech

97.5

3-5/6-6

   

 

* Florida State picked to beat Va. Tech
in the ACC Championship Game

 

 

 

 

^ This prediction based on possibility of 12
to 15 players being declared ineligible.
If they play, Miami is picked to win 9 games.

 

March 10, 2011

NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments–March 10 Update

Two Newest Dance Participants

 

Northeast Conference Championship

Long Island  85  Robert Morris  82 ot

 

In what may have been the most exciting championship game of the season, the home-standing Blackbirds and visiting Colonials exchanged leads all night.  Two missed three-point shots in the final seconds, one at the buzzer, was all that prevented this game from going to double overtime.

 

LIU opened with a cold shooting hand, and RMU took the lead.  Once the Blackbirds started hitting their shots, this became a game of runs.  LIU had the hot hand in the second half, but RMU kept getting enough offensive rebounds to keep the Colonials in the game.

 

Jamal Olasewere had a game-high 31 points to go with 11 rebounds; he scored seven points in the overtime.  Team leader Julian Boyd was held to just seven points, but the Blackbirds had excellent showings off the bench.  Jason Brickman tossed in 15 points and dished out eight big assists, while Kenny Onyechi added 13 points.

 

Russell Johnson and Velton Jones teamed up for 42 points for the losers.

 

LIU will be a formidable opponent for their favored foe in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.  Their style of play could cause severe matchup problems for a bigger, slower team, especially if that team is not the strongest ball-handling team.  If they were to be bracketed against BYU in the first round, it would be the thriller of the first round. 

 

Big Sky Conference Championship

Northern Colorado  65  Montana  60

 

This game was anticlimactic following the NEC Championship.  Montana kept the pace slow, and the Grizzlies shot out to a 7-0 lead in the first two and a half minutes.  UNC made a run to take its first lead at 17-16 on a three-point shot by Tate Unruh.

 

The lead switched hands several times the remainder of the half with the buzzer sending the teams to the locker tied at 31-31.

 

Montana maintained a small lead for most of the second half, until star guard Devon Beitzel took over.  His three-pointer at the 4:56 mark gave the Bears the lead for good.  Beitzel continued shooting and then forced Montana to foul him, and the Bears hung on to win.

 

Beitzel did not score until late in the first half, but the Big Sky Conference’s leading scorer finished with 27 points.

 

Montana center Brian Qvale hit a layup with 16 seconds remaining to cut the lead to 62-60, but following two made Beitzel free throws, Art Steward committed a turnover to seal the game. 

 

Steward led the Grizzlies with 16 points, while Qvale added 11.

 

Northern Colorado will be one of those teams that will be glad just to be there at the NCAA Tournament.  The Bears should make a quick exit in game one, unless they are chosen as one of the First Four #16 seeds.

 

13 Automatic Qualifiers To Date

Team Conference Record
Arkansas-Little Rock Sunbelt 19-16
Belmont Atlantic South 30-4
Butler Horizon 23-9
Gonzaga West Coast 24-9
Indiana State Missouri Valley 20-13
Long Island Northeast 27-4
Morehead State Ohio Valley 24-9
Northern Colorado Big Sky 21-10
Oakland Summit 25-9
Old Dominion Colonial 27-6
St. Peter’s Metro Atlantic 20-13
UNC-Asheville Big South 19-13
Wofford Southern 21-12

 

No Championship Games Are Scheduled For Thursday

 

Wednesday’s Results/Thursday’s Schedule

All Times EST

Atlantic Coast Conference—Greensboro, NC

1st Round

#8 Virginia (16-14)  vs. #9 Miami (Fla) (18-13)  12 Noon

#5 Boston College (19-11)  vs. #12 Wake Forest (8-23)  Approx. 2:15 PM

#7 Maryland (18-13)  vs. #10 North Carolina State (15-15)  7 PM  ESPN2

#6 Virginia Tech (19-10)  vs. #11 Georgia Tech (13-17)  Approx. 9:15 PM

 

Big 12 Conference—Kansas City

1st Round

#9 Oklahoma State  53  #8 Nebraska  52

#5 Colorado  77  #12 Iowa State  75

#10 Oklahoma  84  #7 Baylor  67

#6 Missouri  88  #11 Texas Tech  84

 

Quarterfinal Round

#9 Oklahoma State (19-12)  vs. #1 Kansas (29-2)  12:30 PM on ESPN2

#5 Colorado (20-12)  vs. #4 Kansas State (22-9)  3PM

#10 Oklahoma (14-17) vs. #2 Texas (25-6)  7 PM

#6 Missouri (23-9) vs. #3 Texas A&M (23-7)  9:30 PM

 

Big East Conference—New York City

2nd Round

#9 Connecticut  79  #8 Georgetown 62

#5 St. John’s  65  #13 Rutgers 63

#7 Cincinnati  87  #15 South Florida 61

#11 Marquette  67  #6 West Virginia  61

 

Quarterfinal Round

#9 Connecticut (23-9)  vs. #1 Pittsburgh (27-4)  12 Noon  ESPN

#5 St. John’s (21-10)  vs. #4 Syracuse (25-6)  Approx. 2:15 PM  ESPN

#7 Cincinnati (25-7)  vs. #2 Notre Dame (25-5)  7 PM  ESPN

#11 Marquette (20-13)  vs. #3 Louisville (23-8)  Approx. 9:15 PM  ESPN

 

Big Ten Conference—Indianapolis

1st Round

#8 Northwestern (17-12)  vs. #9 Minnesota (17-13)  2:30 PM  ESPN2

#7 Michigan State (17-13)  vs. #10 Iowa (11-19)  4:50 PM  ESPN2

#6 Penn State (16-13)  vs. #11 Indiana (12-19)  7:30 PM  Big Ten Network

 

Big West Conference—Anaheim

Quarterfinal Round

#1 Long Beach State (20-10)  vs. #8 UC-Irvine (13-18)  3 PM

#4 Pacific (16-14)  vs. #5 UC-Santa Barbara (15-13)  5:20 PM

#2 Cal Poly (15-14)  vs. #7 UC-Riverside (11-18)  9 PM

#3 Cal State Northridge (13-17)  vs. #6 Cal State Fullerton (11-19)  11:20 PM

 

Conference USA—El Paso, TX

1st Round

#8 East Carolina  78  #9 Central Florida  60

#5 Southern Miss.  63  #12 Tulane  47

#6 Marshall  97  #11 Houston  87

#10 Rice  58  #7 S M U  57

 

Quarterfinal Round

#8 East Carolina (17-14)  vs. #1 U A B  (22-7)  1PM  CBSC

#5 Southern Miss (22-9)  vs. #4 Memphis (22-9)  3:30 PM  CBSC

#6 Marshall (22-10)  vs. #3 U T E P  (23-8)  7:30 PM  CBSC

#10 Rice (14-17)  vs. #2 Tulsa (18-12)  10 PM  CBSC

 

M A C—Cleveland

Quarterfinal Round

#7 Bowling Green (14-18)  vs. #2 Western Michigan (19-11)  12 Noon

#6 Akron (20-12)  vs. #3 Miami (O) (16-15)  2:30 PM

#8 Buffalo (18-12)  vs. #1 Kent State (21-10)  7 PM

#5 Ohio U (18-14)  vs. #4 Ball State (18-12)  9:30 PM

 

M E A C—Winston-Salem, NC

Note: The MEAC has a unique scheduling format which rewards its top three seeds.  Thus, yesterday, there were both first round and quarterfinal round games scheduled.  The quarterfinal round concludes today.

 

1st Round

#6 Norfolk State  68  #11 Howard 53

 

Quarterfinal Round

#1 Bethune-Cookman  66  #9 South Carolina State 50

#2 Hampton  77  #10 Maryland-Eastern Shore  55

 

Quarterfinal Round Continues

#4 Morgan State (15-13)  vs. #5 North Carolina A&T (15-16)  8 PM

#3 Coppin State (16-13)  vs. #6 Norfolk State (11-19)  7 PM

 

Mountain West Conference—Las Vegas

1st Round

#9 T C U  70  #8 Wyoming  61

 

Quarterfinal Round

#9 T C U (11-21)  vs. #1 Brigham Young (28-3)  3 PM

#5 New Mexico (20-11)  vs. #4 Colorado State (19-11)  5:30 PM

#7 Utah (13-17)  vs. #2 San Diego State (29-2)  9 PM

#6 Air Force (15-14)  vs. #3 U N L V  (23-7)  11:30 PM

 

Pac-10 Conference—Los Angeles

1st Round

#9 Oregon State 69  #8 Stanford 67

#7 Oregon 76  #10 Arizona State 69

 

Quarterfinal Round

#4 Southern Cal (18-13)  vs. #5 California (17-13)  3 PM  Fox Sports

#1 Arizona (25-6)  vs. #9 Oregon State (11-19)  5:30 PM  Fox Sports

#2 U C L A  (22-9)  vs. #7 Oregon (15-16)  9 PM  Fox Sports

#3 Washington (20-10)  vs. #6 Washington State (19-11)  11:30 PM  Fox Sports

 

Southeastern Conference—Atlanta

1st Round

#4E  Georgia (20-10)  vs. #5W  Auburn (11-19)  1 PM

#3W  Ole Miss (19-12)  vs. #6E  South Carolina (14-15)  3:30 PM

#4W  Arkansas (18-12)  vs. #5E  Tennessee (18-13)  7:30 PM

#3W  Vanderbilt (21-9)  vs. #6E L S U  (11-20)  10 PM

 

Southland Conference—Katy, TX

Quarterfinal Round

#1 McNeese State 61  #8 Nicholls State 54

#4 Texas State 72  #5 Southeastern Louisiana 68

#7 Texas-San Antonio 97  #2 Northwestern State (LA) 96

#3 Sam Houston State 61  #6 Stephen F. Austin 45

 

Semifinal Round

#3 Sam Houston State (18-12)  vs. #7 Texas-San Antonio (17-13)  7 PM

#1 McNeese State (20-10)  vs. #4 Texas State (16-15)  9:30 PM

 

S W A C–Garland, TX

Quarterfinal Round

#1 Texas Southern 50  #8 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 45

#2 Jackson State 50  #7 Prairie View 38

 

Quarterfinal Round Continues

#3 Mississippi Valley (13-18)  vs. #6 Grambling (10-20)  12:30 PM

#4 Alabama State (14-17)  vs. #5 Alabama A&M (13-14) 9 PM

 

W A C—Las Vegas

1st Round

#8 San Jose State 75  #5 Hawaii 74

#6 Nevada 90  #7 Fresno State 80

 

2nd Round

#4 Idaho (18-12)  vs. #8 San Jose State (16-14)  3 PM  ESPNU

#3 New Mexico State (15-16)  vs. #6 Nevada (13-18)  5:30 PM  ESPNU

August 17, 2010

2010 Atlantic Coast Conference Preview

Go to www.piratings.webs.com where we beat the spread 60.4% in 2009!

 

2010 Atlantic Coast Conference Preview

 

Note: The PiRate Ratings are not meant to be used to predict the outcome of future games.  They are usable only as a basis for the current week’s games.  We do not use these ratings to make our selections.  They are only a starting point.  The predictions given below, as for every college conference and NFL division, are not taken from the ratings themselves.

Predictions

Pos Atlantic ACC W-L
1 Florida State 6-2 8-5
2 Boston College 5-3 8-4
3 Clemson 5-3 8-4
4 Maryland 3-5 6-6
5 Wake Forest 2-6 4-8
6 North Carolina State 1-7 4-8
       
Pos Coastal ACC W-L
1 Miami (Fla) 6-2 10-3
2 North Carolina 6-2 10-2
3 Virginia Tech 6-2 9-3
4 Georgia Tech 5-3 8-4
5 Duke 3-5 5-7
6 Virginia 0-8 3-9

 

ACC Championship Game: Miami over Florida State

 

BCS Bowl (Orange): Miami

Chick-fil-A Bowl: North Carolina

Champs Sports Bowl: Clemson

Sun Bowl: Florida State

Meineke Car Care Bowl: Virginia Tech

Music City Bowl: Georgia Tech

Independence Bowl: Maryland

Eagle Bank Bowl: Boston College

 

 

Team By Team Breakdown

 

Atlantic Division

 

Team Boston College Eagles
               
Head Coach Frank Spaziani
               
Colors Maroon and Gold
               
City Chestnut Hill, MA
               
2009 Record              
Conference 5-3
Overall 8-5
               
PiRate Rating 109.1
               
National Rating 40
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 5-3
Overall 8-4

 

Offense: Coach Frank Spaziani won eight games in his debut in Chestnut Hill last season.  He did it with a lackluster offense that averaged just 63 scrimmage plays and 324 yards, relying on a defense to win four close games.  His 2010 offense will look similar; the Eagles will score just enough to win more close games.

There’s a greybeard operating at quarterback with 26-year old sophomore Dave Shinskie taking over for a full season.  In 10 starts, the 6-year Minor League baseball veteran tossed for 2,049 yards and 15 touchdowns, but he has to cut down on his 14 interceptions (4.9%).

Shinskie’s stats may not look all that much better this year, because somebody has to catch his strikes.  Last year’s primary receiver, Rich Gunnell, caught 60 passes, which was 31 more than anybody else.  Wide out Colin Larmond caught just 29 passes, but he averaged better than 20 yards per catch.  BC always has good tight ends, and Chris Pantale should catch as many as 40 passes this year.  He will prove invaluable in the 3rd and medium situations, where his 6-6 frame will be a great target at the first down marker.

The running game has a dominant player but little quality depth.  Montel Harris finished second in the league with 1,457 yards rushing, finding paydirt 14 times.  He will have to carry the load and carry the pigskin 20-30 times per game this year, or BC may struggle on this side of the ball.

Chances are good that Harris will continue to churn out consistent gains thanks to the return of four starters to the offensive line.  Tackle Anthony Castonzo was a 1st Team All-ACC pick last year, and we believe he is the best OL Prospect for the next NFL Draft.

The Eagles won’t generate highlights for ESPN on this side of the ball, but they will rush for 175-200 yards and pass for 150, putting up about 25 points a game for the third year in a row.

Defense: For five years in a row, BC has been very tough against the run, giving up 91, 108, 76, 91, and 103 yards per game.  These stats have not been inflated (or deflated depending on how you look at it) due to a high number of sacks.  BC has consistently great run-stoppers, and that should continue again this season.

Three experienced starters return to the front four.  End Alex Albright met and dumped enemy ball carriers on their side of the line seven times last year.  Throw in a sack and ¼ of all his tackles went for lost yardage.

It would have been one of the best stories of the season if linebacker Mark Herzlich could have played and contributed after missing all of last year with cancer.  He was ready to play, but he suffered a stress fracture in his foot.  He might be able to return later in the season.  The Eagles still have talent at linebacker with Luke Kuechly, the tackling monster.  Kuechly led the ACC with 158 tackles, including 13 for losses.  He broke up four passes and picked off one other.

Because the run defense was so effective, opponents took to the air against BC.  The Eagles gave up 224 passing yards at a 62% completion rate, but the secondary did intercept 15 passes (29 broken up).  Two starters return including free safety Wes Davis, but the two new starters saw considerable action last year.

This year’s defense will be much like last year’s defense.  Expect 18-22 points and 300-325 yards allowed.  Boring is okay when it is successful.

Schedule: Boston College gets their off-week at the best possible time.  After opening with “gimme” games against Weber State and Kent State, the Eagles get two weeks to prepare for a home game with Virginia Tech.  They follow it up with a fourth consecutive home tilt, hosting rival Notre Dame.  We expect the Eagles will be 3-1 or possibly 2-2 at this point.  They play at Syracuse to end the season, and there is a chance that the ‘Cuse could be 5-6 playing for bowl eligibility. 

The Eagles lack that extra oomph to get them to the next level.  They need a Doug Flutie or Matt Ryan for that.  Call it another 5-3/8-4 regular season.

Team Clemson Tigers
               
Head Coach Dabo Swinney
               
Colors Orange and Purple
               
City Clemson, SC
               
2009 Record              
Conference 6-2
Overall 9-5
               
PiRate Rating 113.7
               
National Rating 25
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 5-3
Overall 8-4

 

Offense: The Tigers won the division title last year with a powerful, multi-dimensional offense that made the most of the yardage it gained.  CU averaged 362 yards a game.  One player was responsible for 123 of those yards and 16 touchdowns.  He also scored five return touchdowns.  C J Spiller is now a Buffalo Bill.

Many people will think Clemson’s offense will fall off quite a bit this year due to the loss of their superstar.  They are wrong.  CU might even gain more total yards this year.  Quarterback Kyle Parker is a two-sport star.  He is a home run hitter with an offer on the table from the Colorado Rockies.  He could be the next Todd Helton.  Coach Dabo Swinney does not have another Peyton Manning on his roster, so he hopes Parker continues to play football.  Expect better numbers from the sophomore after he passed for 2,526 yards and 20 touchdowns as a freshman.

Replacing Spiller’s 1,200+ rushing yards may not be impossible.  CU will use a two-man tandem, and both are solid players.  Andre Ellington will start; he has good speed, and he has good hands to catch the ball out of the backfield.  Jamie Harper has more power and can gain the tough yards.

The offensive line returns four experienced starters; this unit takes a back seat to no other OL in the conference.  Tackle Chris Hairston and guard Antoine McClain will compete for 1st Team All-ACC accolades.

The Tigers have a lot of depth but untested talent at wide receiver.  Swinney will take advantage of this depth with Xavier Dye, Marquan Jones, Javon Brown, and Bryce McNeal all scheduled to see playing time.  McNeal is a burner who can get open deep in a hurry.  He may catch only 25-30 passes, but he should average 20+ yards per reception.  Dye and Jones can burn defenses as well, so we expect the Tigers’ yards per catch to be among the highest in the nation.

Clemson will gain more yards this year, but their points per game average will drop due to the elimination of all the special teams’ touchdowns.  Call it 375-400 yards and 24-28 points per game

Defense: CU lost five starters, including star linebacker Kavell Conner, but they have even more talent on this side of the ball than on the other.  Three starters return up front where the Tigers had a league best 36 sacks (tied with Virginia Tech).  All four of this year’s projected starters have all-conference potential.  Tackle Jarvis Jenkins made 10 tackles for loss and one sack.  No ACC rival can rival this line.

The Tigers have some holes to fill at linebacker.  Only one starter returns.  Brandon Maye recorded 103 tackles with three sacks and four others for loss.  True freshman Justin Parker has cornerback speed, and he should start from game one. 

As good as the front four are, the back four could be better!  Strong safety DeAndre McDaniel intercepted a league-best eight passes last year.  Cornerback Marcus Gilchrist registered 107 tackles.

If Clemson can get adequate play from their linebackers, they will be tough on this side of the ball.  Expect opponents to use a lot of play-action and misdirection, trying to exploit the inexperience in the middle unit.  We look for Clemson to give up 18-22 points and 300-325 yards per game.

Schedule: The Tigers play two easy marks and two tough SEC teams outside of ACC play.  CU hosts North Texas and Presbyterian to start the season, before visiting the Loveliest Village on the Plains and Auburn.  They close at home with in-state rival South Carolina where they will be looking for revenge. 

In ACC play, CU draws both North Carolina and Miami from the other division.  They have the talent to repeat as Atlantic Division champions, but we think they will come up one game short; they must play on the road against Boston College and Florida State.

Team Florida State Seminoles
               
Head Coach Jimbo Fisher
               
Colors Garnet and Gold
               
City Tallahassee, FL
               
2009 Record              
Conference 4-4
Overall 7-6
               
PiRate Rating 119.0
               
National Rating 17
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 6-2
Overall 8-4

 

Offense: When was the last time Bobby Bowden was not patrolling the sidelines at Florida State?  Do you remember the year the Cincinnati Reds beat the Boston Red Sox in the World Series, the one where Carlton Fisk willed his long fly ball to stay fair as it sailed over the Green Monster at Fenway Park?  Yes, it was 1975 when the Seminoles were coached to a 3-8 season by Darrell Mudra.

Enter Jimbo Fisher.  He has been the coach in waiting the last couple of years.  He inherits the controls of a dangerous offense capable of reminding Seminole fans of past great FSU teams.

Start at quarterback, where Christian Ponder has to be considered a Heisman Trophy candidate.  Ponder completed 69% of his passes for 2,717 yards and 14 touchdowns a year ago (8.2 yards/attempt), despite missing four games last year to injury.  E.J. Manuel could start for many teams, but he will see mop-up duty for FSU. 

Ponder will miss the services of two great receivers.  Rod Owens graduated, and Jarmon Fortson was dismissed from the team.  Two quality holdovers return in Bert Reed and Taiwan Easterling.  Look for these two to combine for 120-140 receptions this year, because there is very little experience on the bench. 

Florida State’s running game began to re-emerge as a power last year, as the Seminoles improved to 150 rushing yards per game.  Jermaine Thomas moved into the starting lineup at the end of September and rushed for 832 yards and nine scores.  He could become the first 1,000 yard rusher since Warrick Dunn’s senior season.  If Thomas fails to rush for 1,000 yards, it will be because he had to share the position with several other quality runners.

The offensive line returns intact, and it is on par with the offensive line at Clemson.  Guard Rodney Hudson has 1st Round draft potential.

FSU topped 30 points and 420 yards per game in 2009, and we believe they will improve a bit more this year.  Look for 32-36 points and 425-450 yards.

Defense: The once proud defense in Tallahassee fell apart last year, as FSU gave up 30 points per game for the first time since 1973, when the ‘Noles went 0-11.  Three of the top five tacklers graduated, but there is hope for considerable improvement.  Mark Stoops, younger brother of Bob and Mike, takes over at defensive coordinator.

Stoops must work his magic up front, where FSU gave up 205 rushing yards (5.4 avg.) per game last year, including 401 to Georgia Tech.  Sophomore tackle Jacobbi McDaniel started two games last year after coming here as the number one d-line recruit.  He joins three holdovers in the trenches, but none of the other three will challenge for all-conference honors.  End Markus White is a plus though.

2009’s top tacklers Nigel Bradham and Kendall Smith combined for 178 tackles; they return at linebacker and should team with outstanding true freshman recruit Jeff Luc.

The secondary gave up 230 passing yards, and considering that teams could run the ball with ease against them, this is a large amount of yards.  The ‘Noles should be okay at cornerback with Ochuko Jenjie and Greg Reid starting and Dionte Allen seeing a lot of time.

There is only one way to go with the amount of talent Stoops has on defense.  Expect FSU to improve to 22-26 points and 375-400 yards allowed.

Schedule: Fisher will get off to a good start at Doak Campbell Stadium.  The ‘Noles host Samford.  The following week, they venture to Oklahoma and then host BYU a week after that.  If they are 3-0, then we’re looking at a team that could be on its way to the BCS Championship Game.  We believe they will be 2-1 and on their way to the ACC Championship Game.  The season finale at home with Florida is a tossup before the season begins.

In conference action, FSU avoids Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech from the Coastal Division and hosts North Carolina.  They must play at Miami.  We believe they will get a chance to revenge the loss Miami will give them in a rematch on December 4.

Team Maryland Terrapins
               
Head Coach Ralph Friedgen
               
Colors Red, White, Black, and Gold
               
City College Park, MD
               
2009 Record              
Conference 1-7
Overall 2-10
               
PiRate Rating 95.7
               
National Rating 70
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 5-3
Overall 8-4

 

Offense: Sizzle, sizzle, sizzle.  That sound is Coach Ralph Friedgen starting to simmer on a very hot seat.  It is now or never for Fridge in College Park.  Following a 2-10 season which was his fourth losing season in six year, the Terps must win in 2010, or a new coach will be coming in.

The biggest criticism with Friedgen has been the difficulty of his offense.  New quarterbacks tend to struggle learning it all.  Junior signal caller Jamarr Robinson returns after seeing some action under center last year, so he has just enough experience to move the Maryland offense. 

Robinson has a nice group of receivers, led by the top four pass catchers from last year.  Torrey Smith was a 1st Team All-ACC pick last year after making 61 catches for 824 yards.  Adrian Cannon, Ronnie Tyler, and running backs Da’Rel Scott and Davin Meggett combined for 98 receptions, so there is a lot of experience here.

UM’s running game was weak last year.  Scott and Meggett were more valuable as receivers than runners.  Scott was injured most of the year, and when he was healthy in 2008, he topped 1,000 yards.  Look for something closer to 2008 than 2009.

The offensive line was a weak spot last year, and there must be improvement here for the offense to turn it around.  Three starters return, but nobody in this unit will make honorable mention All-ACC.

We don’t know if the Terps can improve enough to please the fans and administration, but UM will post better numbers on this side of the ball.  Look for 24 points and 350-375 yards.

Defense: Maryland was one of three ACC teams to give up more than 30 points per game last year, and the Terps lost six starters from that group.  This will be Friedgen’s downfall if UM fails to win enough games.

Problems start up front where three new starters must be found.  Tackle A.J. Francis is the lone returnee.  He had just one sack. 

The second line of defense is much better than the front four, but they will have to shed a lot more blocks this year in order to replicate that 2009 effort.  Middle linebacker Alex Wujciak was a 1st Team All-ACC performer after leading the Terps with 131 tackles and 8 ½ for losses.

Three starters must be replaced in the secondary.  Lone holdover Cameron Chism could make all-conference at cornerback.  His counterpart could be a freshman.  Safeties Kenny Tate and Antwine Perez combined for 92 tackles as reserves last year, so they should perform adequately this year.

This defense will not be confused with Jerry Claiborne’s old defenses from the Randy White days in College Park, but it will be better than last year.  Look for 24-28 points and 360-380 yards allowed.

Schedule: We believe the opening game could decide Friedgen’s fate.  Maryland plays Navy in Baltimore, on Labor Day.  Their other three non-conference games are against Morgan State and Florida International at home and West Virginia on the road.  They must win three of those four to go bowling this year. 

In ACC play, they draw both Duke and Virginia from the other division, and they host North Carolina State and Wake Forest.  They couldn’t ask for a better schedule, and they should win six games. Whether or not that is enough to save Fridge, we don’t know.

Team North Carolina State Wolfpack
               
Head Coach Tom O’Brien
               
Colors Red and White
               
City Raleigh, NC
               
2009 Record              
Conference 2-6
Overall 5-7
               
PiRate Rating 97.9
               
National Rating 64
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 0-8
Overall 2-10

 

Offense: Coach Tom O’Brien hasn’t been able to work his magic in Raleigh like he did at Boston College.  Except for a four-game stretch in November of 2008, when the Wolfpack climbed from 2-6 to 6-6 by defeating Duke, Wake Forest, North Carolina, and Miami, the ‘Pack has gone 12-21 in the rest of their games.

The offense will be the bright spot for this team this season.  Coming off a year in which they topped 30 points and gained close to 400 yards per game, they return their starting quarterback and most of his favorite targets from a year ago.

Quarterback Russell Wilson has been a little rusty in practice so far.  He spent the spring and early summer playing minor league baseball (he hit a low .230), so it may take a few weeks before he is back in a groove.  Wilson tossed for better than 3,000 yards and 31 touchdowns against 11 interceptions.  Backup Mike Glennon was one of the top QB prospects three years ago, and he saw some action last year as a redshirt freshman.

There is abundant talent at receiver where the top four return from 2009.  Tight end George Bryan nabbed 40 passes and scored six times.  Wideouts Owen Spencer, Jarvis Williams, and Darrell Davis combined for 100 catches and 18 touchdowns.  Spencer is a deep threat every time he touches the ball.  He averaged 25.5 points a catch to lead the nation in that department a year after he averaged 21.2 per catch.   There is experienced depth behind this group.

The running game has not been a strong point for several years,  and we don’t see it getting much better this year.  Curtis Underwood and James Washington will split most of the carries. 

The offensive line took a major hit to graduation losses.  Three starters, including an NFL draft, have used up their eligibility.  This will keep the Wolfpack from moving north of .500 this year.

We believe that State will take a small move backward this year with less pass protection and another so-so running game.  Call it 23-27 points and 350-375 yards per game.

Defense:  O’Brien has not been able to put together solid defenses in his three years in Raleigh.  NCSU gave up 31.2 points per game last year, and they lost six starters from that squad. 

The entire defensive line must be replaced (including NFL draftee Willie Young), and in a league with really good offensive lines, this is major trouble.  Senior end Michael Lemon is the best of this lot, but he won’t be confused for Robert Quinn or Alan Bailey.

Too bad, State cannot play a 1-7 defense, because they have talent and depth at linebacker.  Terrell Manning, Nate Irving, and Audie Cole make a great trio, and former starter Dwayne Maddox leads an excellent second group.

As weak as the front four is, the back four could be weaker.  One full-time starter and one part-time starter returns from last year, but neither intercepted a pass.  Safeties Brandon Bishop and Earl Wolff were better as run-stoppers than pass defenders.

The Wolfpack could repeat last year’s dismal performance.  We will call for them to yield 28-32 points and 350-375 yards per game.

Schedule: There is a chance for a 4-0 non-league mark, but we will call for one team to nip them.  State hosts Western Carolina and Cincinnati and plays at Central Florida and East Carolina. 

In league play, the ‘Pack faces Georgia Tech, North Carolina, and Virginia Tech from the Coastal Division.  That’s three losses before you factor in their own tough divisional opponents.  It looks like a last place finish for the third time in four years, but this time they will own it by themselves (tied for last the other two times).

Team Wake Forest Demon Deacons
               
Head Coach Jim Grobe
               
Colors Black and Old Gold
               
City Winston-Salem, NC
               
2009 Record              
Conference 3-5
Overall 5-7
               
PiRate Rating 103.6
               
National Rating 49
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 2-6
Overall 5-7

 

Offense: The Demon Deacons lose their all-time leading passer and three starting offensive linemen, so 2010 is going to be a work in progress.

Coach Jim Grobe enters his 10th season here, and he has proven to be quite adaptable, changing his offensive game plan to match the talent he has.   This year, look for Wake Forest to revert back to a run first philosophy after using a 50-50 run-pass approach with Riley Skinner at quarterback.

The Deacs may go to a two-quarterback rotation this year.  Junior Skylar Jones is more of a running quarterback, while sophomore Ted Stachitas is more of a pure passer.  Redshirt freshman Brendan Cross and true freshman Tanner Price are getting a lot of reps in practice, so apparently Grobe is not 100% decided on which player will start the first game.

Running back Josh Adams won’t appear among the ACC rushing leaders, but he is a dual threat back.  He rushed for 541 yards and four touchdowns and caught 28 passes for 307 yards.  Backup Brandon Pettigrew added 399 yards on the ground.

Three talented receivers return, but their catches are sure to drop some if Jones plays more than Stachitas.  Chris Givens, Devon Brown, and Marshall Williams teamed for 166 receptions and 20 touchdowns.  All three can get yards after the catch.

The offensive line is the problem this year.  Both tackles and one guard must be replaced, and with an inexperienced quarterback, the team’s interception and sack percentages are sure to rise.  Grobe may counter this by going back to more of the zone blocking schemes he used earlier in his tenure at Wake and at Ohio U.

There is no way Wake Forest can match last year’s offensive output.  Look for the averages to fall to 21-24 points and 360-390 yards.

Defense: The Demon Deacons are undersized and inexperienced up front, and that could lead to teams running the ball at that all day.  Wake gave up 164 rushing yards per game last year; that number could top 200 this season.

Ends Kyle Wilber and Tristan Dorty do not have the size to take on a one-on-one drive block from an offensive tackle.  They are better pass rushers.  The tackles will have the beef, but they lack experience.

Three linebackers with playing experience return to the second line of defense, but they will not get much help up front.  Expect more blitzing by this group, and that will leave holes open in pass coverage.

The secondary has experience and talent.  Cornerback Kenny Okoro excelled in his freshman year with three interceptions and 11 passes knocked down.  Wake won’t give up 219 passing yards per game last year, and we expect that number to drop—partly because the secondary is good and partly because opponents will run the ball more.

We believe opposing teams will control the ball for more plays this year.  Last year, the Deacons enjoyed a scrimmage play difference of +4; that number could be reversed this year.  Look for the Deacs to give up 28-32 points and 375-400 yards.

Schedule: The Deacons play four private schools out of league play, and they could win three of those games; they could also lose three of them.  They host Presbyterian and Navy, and they play at Stanford and Vanderbilt.

In the league, they get Duke, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech from the other division.  They face North Carolina State and Maryland on the road, so those games are not sure wins.  Wake will have to pull off two or three upsets to become bowl eligible, and we don’t see it happening.

Coastal Division

Team Duke Blue Devils
               
Head Coach David Cutcliffe
               
Colors Royal Blue and White
               
City Durham, NC
               
2009 Record              
Conference 3-5
Overall 5-7
               
PiRate Rating 95.0
               
National Rating 75
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 2-6
Overall 4-8

 

Offense: Coach David Cutcliffe is known as an offensive genius who has helped develop talented quarterbacks into Super Bowl ring-holders.  Two brothers named Manning can thank him for making them better than they were.  Thaddeus Lewis enjoyed playing two seasons for him here, and he departs as Duke’s all-time leading passer.

Welcome Sean Renfree.  He becomes the next star pupil for Professor Cutcliffe.  Renfree suffered an ACL injury last year, so his mobility will be a question.  Don’t expect Lewis-like numbers, but he should have some success in his first year as a regular.

Almost every receiver from last year returns, so Renfree will benefit from this experience.  Donovan Varner led the ACC with 65 catches for 1,047 yards and eight touchdowns.  Conner Vernon and Austin Kelly both caught more than 50 balls and proved to be able to break off a long gain.

Duke ran the ball only about 25 times a game last year and averaged just 64 yards per game (only 80 with sacks removed).  True freshman Josh Snead and Juwan Thompson are expected to contribute immediately this year and challenge projected starter Jay Hollingsworth and Desmond Scott for playing time.  Expect some improvement here.

The offensive line welcomes the return of four starters from last year, and they will give Renfree ample time to locate his receivers.  Tackle Kyle Hill will protect Renfree’s blind side.

We believe the Blue Devils will rush for 100 yards this year, which may not sound like much at first.  Duke has only topped 100 yards rushing once in the four years.  Add about 225 to 250 passing yards, and the Blue Devils should score 21-25 points per game.

Defense: Duke will add some 3-4 fronts to their regular 4-3 defense this year.  A lack of talent up front will force Cutcliffe to rely more on a three-man line.  Nose guard Charlie Hatcher has the size to occupy multiple blockers.

Two starters return at linebacker, but there isn’t a star player in this group.  Middle linebacker Damian Thornton could be the leading tackler this year.

If Thornton isn’t the leading tackler, strong safety Matt Daniels will be.  He made 83 stops and broke up five passes last year.  Cornerback Chris Rwabukamba batted away seven passes.  Former receiver Johnny Williams moves over to the secondary, and he should see a lot of playing time at cornerback.

The defense will keep Duke from gaining bowl eligibility.  Look for the Blue Devils to give up 28-32 points and 375-400 yards per game.

Schedule: Duke should win two non-conference games.  They begin the season with Elon and play host to Army.  They host Alabama on September 18, and I give Duke a lot of credit for keeping this game at Wallace Wade Stadium rather than take a huge payout to move it to a neutral site (Wade coached at both schools).  The Devils play at Navy at the end of October.

Duke draws Boston College, Wake Forest, and Maryland and doesn’t have to face Florida State or Clemson.  They could win three ACC games, but they will probably need a 4-4 league mark to get that elusive sixth win.

Team Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
               
Head Coach Paul Johnson
               
Colors Old Gold and White
               
City Atlanta, GA
               
2009 Record              
Conference 7-1
Overall 11-3
               
PiRate Rating 119.9
               
National Rating 14
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 5-3
Overall 8-4

 

Offense:  Coach Paul Johnson and his magic spread option offense continues to fool defenses wherever he takes it.  Football pundits were skeptical that the option could win a BCS conference championship, but Tech proved them wrong last year.  Of course, Iowa stopped them cold in the Orange Bowl.  Expect every team on the Yellow Jackets’ schedule to closely examine the tape of that game.

The spread option requires a few important things to work.  The fullback (B Back as Johnson calls the position) must be strong enough to create his own hole and not go down on first contact.  The quarterback must be smart enough to read the defense and react appropriately without losing ground as he runs laterally.  Surprisingly, for this offense to work, there has to be one receiver who can get open deep and command the respect from the secondary.  If he requires double coverage, then there are not enough defenders left to stop the option.

Notice that outstanding blocking was not mentioned.  Sure, blocking is important, but most of the plays provide for double-team blocking near the first point of attack. 

Let’s cover each of these points.  At fullback (B back), beefy Anthony Allen should satisfy the requirement and be tough to bring down on first contact.  He rushed for 618 yards and six touchdowns last year playing in the slot (A back), but he should get 200-225 carries this year and should top 1,000 yards on the ground.  Slotbacks Roddy Jones and Embry Peeples will be the recipient of option pitches and should combine for about six to seven yards per carry.  Sure, Tech will miss Jonathan Dwyer and his nearly 1,400 yards rushing, but the Jackets will rush for about the same amount of yards this year.

Quarterback Josh Nesbitt was the 1st Team All-ACC quarterback last year.  He ran for 1,037 yards and 18 touchdowns and passed for 1,701 yards and 10 more touchdowns.  Even though his passing percentage was just 46.3%, he averaged 10.5 yards per attempt.

Tech loses star receiver Demaryius Thomas (46 catches, 25.1 avg., 8 TD).  Thomas caught almost 60% of the passes last year.  The slotbacks (A-backs) have the quickness to get open and in the clear, so Nesbitt should once again top 10 yards per attempt.

The offensive line returns just two starters, but we are not overly concerned for the reasons we discussed previously.  Yes, there will be a little drop in blocking ability because both graduated guards were all-conference performers.  However, the new linemen will learn and become effective much sooner than pass blocking linemen could learn.

Georgia Tech will throw in a few new wrinkles to counter the defensive maneuvers they faced in the Orange Bowl.  Expect the Techsters to top 30 points and 400 yards once again this year.

Defense: Georgia Tech gave up almost 25 points per game last year.  They return eight starters from last year, but those three players were stars.

Johnson hired Al Groh as defensive coordinator.  Groh knows the rest of the league well, having been the head coach at Virginia.  He brings the 3-4 defense to Atlanta.

The defensive line lost Derrick Morgan to the NFL.  Morgan recorded 12 ½ sacks (50% of the team’s total) and six other tackles for loss.  This year’s starting trio up front averages about 285 pounds, so they will force opposing offenses to use double team blocks at the line.  That will give the linebackers room to roam and pursue.

The linebackers will be charged with two three tasks.  They will have to make most of the tackles, most of the QB sacks, and play pass defense as well.  Brad Jefferson is the star of this unit.  He led Tech with 95 tackles and got into the offensive backfield eight times for stops.  Anthony Egbuniwe will be the lead rush linebacker, and his ability to get to the quarterback will determine how successful the new defense becomes.

The secondary loses a 3rd Round NFL Draft choice, and it is not as strong as last year.  The returning starters are much better at run support than pass defense.  Cornerbacks Mario Butler and Dominique Reese combined for just three interceptions and five passes broken up.

Tech’s defense may take a turn south in their first year in the new system.  They will be fine against the run, but a weak pass rush and mediocre secondary will give up too many yards through the air.  As quick as the offense scores points, the defense will give them up.  Look for about 26-30 points and 375-400 yards allowed.

Schedule: Tech should win three of their non-conference games.  They begin the season hosting South Carolina State.  The following week they play at a rebuilding Kansas team.  They host Middle Tennessee, and they conclude the regular season facing Georgia between the hedges.

In the ACC, they get Clemson, North Carolina State, and Wake Forest from the other division.  Clemson will be out for revenge after falling twice to the Jackets last year in games they could have won.  Road games with North Carolina and Virginia Tech will be trouble, and a home game with Miami won’t be easy.  Call it a 5-3 league mark this year.  If they can win one more, it just may be enough to get a piece of the division flag.

Team Miami Hurricanes
               
Head Coach Randy Shannon
               
Colors Royal Purple and Gold
               
City Coral Gables, FL
               
2009 Record              
Conference 5-3
Overall 9-4
               
PiRate Rating 120.9
               
National Rating 12
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 6-2
Overall 9-3

 

Offense: The Hurricanes are close to returning back to the dominating team they were when they earned five national titles and just missed on three or four others.  Coach Randy Shannon has a couple of holes to fill, but this team is loaded with talent and ready to ascend to the top of the ACC.

Quarterback Jacory Harris has a live arm.  He can throw a 50-yard bomb with what looks like little effort.  He played much of last year with a thumb injury, and that led to several bad throws.  He still managed to gain 3,352 yards and 24 touchdowns, but he tossed 17 interceptions too.  If he stays 100% healthy, look for Harris to top 3,500 yards and maybe approach 4,000.  If his TD/Int. ratio is something like 30/10, the “U” is going to compete for their next national championship.

Harris will get a chance to have a Heisman Trophy type of season because he has a loaded group of receivers on hand.  The Hurricanes return their top five pass catchers, including three guys who can get open deep.  Leonard Hankerson is the best of the group.  He caught 45 passes for 801 yards (17.8 avg./c) and six touchdowns.  Travis Benjamin and Aldarius Johnson also topped 17 yards per reception.

The running back position is a question mark as the season begins.  The question is not about talent; it is about determining how many backs will contribute.  Shannon has five talented backs competing for time.  Expect a running back by committee approach.  Damien Berry appears to be the starter, but Graig Cooper and Mike James should get a lot of attempts.  Lamar Miller is a burner with sprinter’s speed, and true freshman Storm Johnson could work his way into the mix.

The one real concern on this side of the ball is the offensive line.  Three starters, including an NFL Draft pick, are gone.  The Hurricanes’ starting tackles, Joel Figueroa and Orlando Franklin, will be the stars of this unit, and how the other three inside players perform may determine just how far this team can go.  Southern Cal true freshman transfer Seantrel Henderson will be eligible to play this year, and he could contribute immediately; he was the top offensive lineman recruit in the nation.

We will call for Miami to score 31-35 points and gain 415-430 yards per game.  They should explode against the weaker teams on their schedule, but there are three or four teams with defenses strong enough to hold them to 24 points or less.

Defense: Some Miami fans believe this year’s defense has the potential to be as good as the 2001 team.  We are a bit skeptical.  This will be a better defense than last year, but we don’t see them holding teams to 250 yards and less than 10 points per game.

The ‘Canes may have the best defensive line in the conference.  We say “may” because we don’t know for sure what will happen with North Carolina.  At worst, this is the second best DL in the ACC.  Shannon has a lot of talent here and can play two units.  That will help when Miami has to play a home game in hot and humid weather.  Three of the four down linemen could earn 1st or 2nd Team All-ACC accolades this year.  End Allen Bailey dumped enemy quarterbacks seven times last year and made four other stops behind the line. 

The linebackers are not as talented as the front line, but they are still one of the four best in the league.  Colin McCarthy and Sean Spence return as starters and will man the outside spots.  Kylan Robinson gets first crack in the middle.  McCarthy was a star last year with 10 ½ stops for loss.

The secondary is as talented as the linebackers.  Cornerback Brandon Harris practically shut down his side of the field last year.  He intercepted just two passes, but he batted away 15 others to lead the league in passes defensed. 

Miami gave up 22 points per game last year.  Florida State, Clemson, and North Carolina scored 36 points per game against them, while the other 10 teams averaged just 18 points per game.  Look for the ‘Canes to lower their defensive numbers to 18 points and 300-325 yards allowed.

Schedule:  We believe the schedule is just hard enough to keep Miami from challenging for a spot in the National Championship Game.  We do believe they are the favorite to play in the Orange Bowl.  Outside of the ACC, the Hurricanes have two tough road games, and we don’t think they can beat both Ohio State and Pittsburgh on enemy turf.  Home games with Florida A&M and South Florida will be different.

In league play, the Coastal Division has four tough teams, and they will beat up on each other.  We think 6-2 will earn part of a piece of the title, and we give Miami the nod to win the division in a tiebreaker.

Team North Carolina Tar Heels
               
Head Coach Butch Davis
               
Colors Carolina Blue and White
               
City Chapel Hill, NC
               
2009 Record              
Conference 4-4
Overall 8-5
               
PiRate Rating 121.1
               
National Rating 11
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 6-2
Overall 10-2

 

Offense: Imagine if Florida had to enter fall drills any of the last three years wondering if Tim Tebow was going to play.  Imagine if the Miami Heat had to wonder if Lebron James and Dwayne Wade may or may not be able to play.  That’s what North Carolina faces, and it greatly interferes with our ability to make our picks here.

The best offensive player to play in Chapel Hill since Amos Lawrence will probably be declared ineligible to play.  Wide receiver/running back Greg Little attended a Memorial Day weekend party in South Beach, Florida, hosted by a professional agent, and he apparently did not pay for the trip.  That is a violation of NCAA rules and can lead to his being declared ineligible (see the defense for more bad news).  Little was going to be used all over the field this year, running, catching, and maybe even throwing the ball.  Without him, North Carolina’s offense goes from dominating to just better than average.

Our ratings above do not factor his (and the defensive player to be mentioned below) being ineligible, so we will have to lower that rating when and if the time comes.

Let’s continue with what we do know.  Quarterbacks T.J. Yates and Bryn Renner find themselves in a media-inspired controversy over which player should start.  Whether Coach Butch Davis considers it a controversy, we don’t know.  Yates was the starter last year and completed 60% of his passes for 2,136 yards and 14 touchdowns.  However, he threw 15 interceptions.  Renner redshirted as a true freshman.   

Without Little, the receiving corps goes from a strength to a concern.  Wideouts Erik Highsmith and Jheranie Boyd will be asked to shoulder the load.  They shared in receiving 49 passes last year, but they were never doubled with Little in the lineup.  Tight end Zack Pianalto caught 33 passes, and he may become a key alternative now.  He could top 50 receptions this year.

Three players should see action at tailback.  Shaun Draughn missed a third of the season with a shoulder injury, and he managed just 567 yards.  Ryan Houston led the Tar Heels with 713 yards and nine touchdowns (three more than Little).  Senior Johnny White could work his way into the rotation.  A.J. Blue saw some action in the Wildcat formation.

With four starters back, the offensive line will be one of the two best in the division.  Guard Alan Pelc could hear his name called in next year’s NFL Draft.

Without Little, we will call for the offense to score about 21-24 points and gain 320-340 yards per game.  If he survives the scandal and actually gets to play, add about four points and 30-40 yards to that amount.

Defense:  Little was not the only Tar Heel at that party.  Not only was the best offensive player on the team there, the best defensive player on the time attended as well.  Tackle Marvin Austin is the one of the best inside defensive linemen in college football and a sure 1st Round pick in the next NFL Draft.  He made four sacks and two other tackles for loss last season.  He got a hand on three passes as well.  He would have anchored the best defensive line in the league and one of the five best in the nation.  Without him, UNC still has an exceptional unit, but it drops below Miami in talent.  End Robert Quinn finished second in the league with 11 sacks and first in total tackles for loss (19).

All three 2009 starters return at linebacker including two all-conference performers.  Quan Sturdivant led the ‘Heels with 79 tackles, 12 for loss.  Bruce Carter added 7 ½ stops for loss.

The secondary may actually be the best unit on this side, but some of their great results must be attributed to a great pass rush.  Cornerback Kendric Burney picked off five passes a year ago, earning 1st Team All-ACC honors.  Safety Deunta Williams one-upped Burney, picking off six passes and knocking away eight others to earn a spot on the all-conference first team as well.

Even without Austin, this is one of the best defenses in the country.  Look for the Tar Heels to give up about 17-21 points and 275-300 yards.  If Austin can play, shave off three points and 25 yards. 

North Carolina has another weapon.  Kicker Casey Barth connected on 21 of 25 field goal attempts, including 4-5 from 40 yards or more.

Schedule: The opening game in Atlanta against LSU will reveal a lot.  We expect something like a 14-10 game either way.  We tend to favor the Tar Heels for the moment, but that could change before game night.  If UNC can get by the Tigers, they should go 4-0 outside of the league.  They travel to a weaker Rutgers team and host East Carolina and William and Mary.

UNC gets both Florida State and Clemson from the other division.  They host Virginia Tech and play at Miami.  We think they will lose twice in league play, but one of those will be to the Hurricanes.  That’s why we pick Miami in a tiebreaker.

Team Virginia Cavaliers
               
Head Coach Mike London
               
Colors Blue and Orange
               
City Charlottesville, VA
               
2009 Record              
Conference 2-6
Overall 3-9
               
PiRate Rating 95.3
               
National Rating 73
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 0-8
Overall 3-9

 

Offense: Virginia suffered through losing seasons three of the last four years, and it cost Coach Al Groh his job.  Enter former UVa defensive coordinator Mike London as new coach.  London won an FCS National Championship at Richmond in 2008.

Bill Lazor takes over as the new offensive coordinator.  The veteran NFL assistant has scuttled the former shotgun spread formation for the under-center pro offense.

The Cavaliers might have been better running the single wing, because they are thin on talent at quarterback.  Senior Mark Verica started nine times two years ago, but he was very ineffective throwing 16 interceptions to just eight touchdowns.  True freshman Michael Rocco could eventually take over the reins of the offense.  It will be a long year in Charlottesville, as the Cavs struggle to pick up yards through the air.

To make matters worse, Virginia lost three of their top four receivers from a year ago.  Leading receiver Kris Burd returns after catching 31 passes for 413 yards and just one score.  Tight end Joe Torchia didn’t get many opportunities in the old offense, but he could actually become the leading receiver this year.

With the passing game bound to have some growing pains, it would be great if the running game was really good.  That isn’t going to happen.  Virginia rushed for less than 100 yards per game last year, and their leading returnee had just 73 yards!  Keith Payne started one game in 2008.  He quit before the 2009 season began.  He may become the starter by default.

Also by default, the offensive line becomes the best part of the offense.  There are no all-conference performers in this unit, but at least there is some experience.  Three starters return, and one of the new starters is a highly recruited freshman.

You have to learn how to crawl before you can learn how to walk.  Virginia will crawl a lot this year on this side of the ball and struggle to score points.  Look for just 14-17 points and 250-275 yards per game.

Defense: There will be more growing pains on this side of the ball.  London scrapped Groh’s 3-4 defense and installed a 4-3 in the Spring.  Former outside linebacker Cam Johnson was moved to end, where he is much better suited to play.  The tackles should hold their own and keep blockers away from the middle linebacker.

That middle linebacker is Steve Greer, who earned Freshman All-American honors last year.  Greer posted a team-leading 92 tackles with 6 ½ for loss.  He may make as many as 130 tackles this season, but many will be for good gains by the opponent.  There isn’t much experience or talent on the outside.

Considering it got very little help from the pass rush, the secondary performed quite well last year.  Two starters from that unit return, including Ras-I Dowling.  Dowling earned 2nd Team All-ACC honors after intercepting three passes and batting away eight.  He should be used on the corner blitz more this year as well.

Virginia gave up 26 points per game last year but just 353 total yards.  Look for the Cavaliers to give up a little more this year due to the change in schemes and the offense not being able to control the clock.  We’ll call it 28-31 points and 370-390 total yards.

Schedule: How ironic!  UVa opens the season with Richmond.  London will have a great scouting report, and the Cavs will open the season 1-0 with a hard-fought victory.  The following week, they serve as the home-opening opponent for Lane Kiffin and his Southern Cal Trojans.  After a week off, they host VMI and should move to 2-1.  A home game with lowly Eastern Michigan should give them a third win.

Don’t expect the Cavs to win an ACC game, and if they do, London should get some votes for ACC Coach of the Year.  It will be a tough transition for the Cavs in year one.

Team Virginia Tech Hokies
               
Head Coach Frank Beamer
               
Colors Maroon, Orange, and White
               
City Blacksburg, VA
               
2009 Record              
Conference 6-2
Overall 10-3
               
PiRate Rating 121.8
               
National Rating 7
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 6-2
Overall 9-3

 

Offense: Virginia Tech has won 10 or more games nine times in the last 11 seasons.  Coach Frank Beamer has won with great offenses, great defenses, and great special teams.  He’s won with mobile quarterbacks and with drop back passers.

He’s got a great mobile quarterback in Tyrod Taylor.  At 6-1, he might be a little too short for the NFL, but he is certainly talented enough to contend for top honors in the ACC.  Taylor threw for 2,311 yards and 13 touchdowns last year with just five interceptions.  His 56% completion rate didn’t look great on paper, but he’s more of a vertical passer.  His completions averaged 17 yards, and he averaged 9.5 yards per attempt.

Taylor has three great targets returning at wideout, each of whom can go deep.  Jarrett Boykin, Danny Coale, and Dyrell Roberts teamed for 92 receptions and 1,839 yards (20 yds./catch).

The Hokies have two running backs capable of rushing for 1,000 yards, as both have done it before.  Ryan Williams raced for a league-leading 1,655 yards and 21 touchdowns last year.  Darren Evans rushed for 1,265 yards in 2008 before missing all of last year with an ACL injury.  He’s fully healthy now.

Tech lost two all-conference offensive linemen from the left side of the line.  That is the only concern on this side of the ball, but it is a big one, as that is Taylor’s blind side.

Virginia Tech should come close to matching last year’s offensive numbers.  If they drop a little, it will be because the Hokies rely a little more on their excellent running game.  Look for 26-30 points and 375-400 yards.

Defense: The reason we don’t have the Hokies penciled in as ACC Coastal Division Champions and legitimate contenders to advance to the National Championship Game is because they lost too much on this side of the ball.  Nine of the top 13 tacklers are gone.  We aren’t about to predict that defensive coordinator Bud Foster will not be able to mold a fine defense with the holdovers, but the Hokies have just enough holes for a couple of teams on their schedule to exploit.

The defensive line returns just one starter.  Tackle John Graves made just 15 tackles last year.  The Hokies sacked enemy quarterbacks 36 times in 2009, and that number will fall by as much as 10 this year.

The Hokies have limited experience returning at linebacker, and they lost an All-American in Cody Grimm.  Barquell Rivers is equally good against the run and the pass, but he will have new partners on either side of him.

Two starters return to a better than average secondary.  Cornerback Rashad Carmichael intercepted six passes and knocked down six more.

It may take a couple of games for the defense to gel, but by October, the Hokies should be challenging for the top stop troops in the conference.  Look for Tech to give up 17-21 points and 300-325 yards per game.

Schedule: Virginia Tech opens the season with what could be the Game of the Year.  They face Boise State at the Washington Redskins Stadium on Labor Day Monday.  So many pundits are calling for Tech to not only beat the Broncos, but do it in convincing manner, all because Boise State lost big to Georgia five years ago.  Five years ago, Barack Obama was unknown to 99% of the country.  Tech’s other three non-league games include home games with James Madison, East Carolina, and Central Michigan.

In the ACC, the Hokies draw Boston College, North Carolina State, and Wake Forest.  They miss Florida State and Clemson.  Their league fate will be decided in back-to-back games in November at North Carolina and Miami.  We felt that they would lose both of these games, and show that in the predictions above.  However, the UNC loss of their top two stars was not figured into that equation.  Tech’s game with Miami should decide the Coastal Division title.

Coming Tomorrow: The Pac-10 Conference prepares to expand to 12 teams next year.  With Southern Cal ineligible for the Rose Bowl, will it be just Ducky again in 2010?

March 17, 2010

Brackets, Brackets, Brackets & A Preview Of The First Round

Question:  How many of you reading this are beginning to come down with some symptoms that will force you to call in sick for work the next two days?  Big Dance Fever seems to strike hard every year at this time.

Now that you are in your pajamas in bed with your TV set to CBS, your computer set to March Madness on Demand, and your brackets as your bed partner, you can begin your two day miraculous recovery.

Before you send off your bracket picks, take a look at the PiRate method for picking teams to advance.  You should re-read the Sunday, March 14, 2010 blog to better understand this method.

Without further adieu, let’s dig in.

1. Which teams meet the upper range criteria in every category?  That means they outscored their opponents by eight or more per game; their field goal percentage was greater than 7.5% better than their opponents; they outrebounded their opponents by five or more per game; they forced at least three more turnovers per game than they committed; and they stole the ball 7.5 or more times per game.

ANSWER—Only two teams met this criteria this year, and neither are members of a big six conference.  Murray State not only met all criteria, they met the upper limits.  The Racers outscored opponents by 17 points per game.  They had a field goal percentage margin of 11.7%.  They outrebounded opponents by six per game and forced 2.7 more turnover per game than they committed.  Best of all, Murray averaged 10 steals per game.  Their R+T was an outstanding 12.48.  Alas, Murray’s schedule strength was just 46.02, and that is too low to consider the Racers a threat to make it to the Elite 8.  Sweet 16 is not totally out of the question.

The second team that met this criteria, but not as well as Murray State, was Brigham Young.  The Cougars outscored opponents by 17.8 points per game.  They shot 7.9% from the field better than their opponents.  They outrebounded the opposition by 5.1.  Their turnover margin was 4.1.  They averaged 8.5 steals per game, and their R+T was an amazing 13.46.  BYU’s schedule strength was 52.52, which is adequate enough to see the Cougars as a serious threat to advance to the second week in this tournament.

2. Which teams can be immediately eliminated due to a negative R+T rating?

ANSWER—Usually upwards of 8-10 teams can be eliminated every season due to poor R+T ratings.  In the Big Dance, this rating, which measures the number of extra scoring opportunities, is vital to winning.  Only two teams can be eliminated right off the bat, and not many people would think of picking them to win any way.  Those two teams are New Mexico State and UC-Santa Barbara.

Several teams just barely qualified with R+T ratings just above zero.  Two of those that just qualified are top 20 teams.  Georgetown and Vanderbilt could be ripe for upset bids in either the first or second round. 

The Hoyas face Ohio U in the first round, and the Bobcats don’t have the merits to pull the upset.  In a second round match, Tennessee definitely meets the criteria to advance to the Sweet 16, so the Volunteers could be a strong pick to knock off Georgetown and advance to St. Louis.

Vanderbilt draws Murray State in the first round, and the Racers could easily pull off the first upset by a double-digit seed.  Murray would then face either Butler or UTEP in a second round game, and the Racers would have a legitimate chance to advance to the second week.

3. Forget all this talk of first round upsets.  Which teams are capable of winning it all?

ANSWER—We thought you’d never ask.  Every year when we compose these ratings, we apply the PiRate formula and look for teams scoring 15 or above to find the real contenders.  Because we have added won-loss record away from home this year, we have elevated that real contender number to 18.  17 teams met that criteria this year.  Before we list them in order, we must clarify something.  After the first two rounds, and after the second two rounds, we recalculate these ratings.  Some teams still alive will cease to meet the minimum score and no longer be considered a serious threat, while one or two teams might move into this elite group.

This year, one team fared much better than all the others.  Thus, that team becomes our favorite to win all the marbles in Indianapolis.

Is that team Kansas or Kentucky?  Guess what?  It is neither.  The one team that scores almost six points better than any other is none other than Duke.  Could Coach K be on his way to title number three in Durham?  We love his seeding, and we definitely see the Blue Devils winning their first four to earn a ticket to Indianapolis.  As a matter of fact, as we see it, the selection committee did several huge favors for the Blue Devils.  First, they get the winner of the play-in game, so they will have a great scouting report.  Of course, this game will be a breather.  On Sunday, Duke will play either Cal or Louisville, and it could actually be the toughest of their four games on the way to the Final Four.  Because Villanova and Purdue are fading as fast as the sun in Barrow, Alaska, in October, there’s a chance that both could be gone before the Sweet 16.

After Duke, six other teams scored 20 or more points in the criteria rating.  They are Kansas, Kansas State, BYU, Syracuse, West Virginia, and Baylor in that order.

Kentucky comes in at number eight, followed closely by New Mexico, Villanova, Michigan State, Maryland, Texas, Tennessee, Old Dominion, Murray State, and Georgetown.  Yes, the Hoyas still qualify as one of the real contenders, but just by a razor’s edge.  Their R+T score is rather low.

The best of the rest (those that just barely missed the 18-point score) are: Siena, Utah State, Washington, Ohio State, and Wisconsin.  These 22 teams are the ones that you should consider for your Sweet 16.

Here is a look at the 32 first round games.  The number in (parentheses) represents the PiRate Bracketnomics criteria number.

First-Round Games

 

East Regional

 

#1 Kentucky (19.8) vs. #16 East Tennessee (1.6)

This is your typical one vs. 16 mismatch.  Kentucky will not win by 50 like they might have in the days of Rick Pitino; they might outscore the Buccaneers by 20 points in two separate segments in this game and yet win by only 20 points.

The Wildcats will dominate the glass, and ETSU won’t be able to force enough turnovers to make this a game.  We see UK holding the Bucs to about 35% shooting and 60 or fewer points.

Prediction: Kentucky 74  East Tennessee 53

 

#8 Texas (19.0) vs. #9 Wake Forest (4.9)

The Longhorns were a big disappointment after being ranked at the top at 17-0 earlier in the year.  Looking at their stats, it’s definitely hard to see how they lost nine times in their final 16 games.

Texas just barely misses qualifying as superior in every PiRate Bracketnomics’ category.  They outscored opponents by 11.5 points per game, shot 6.7% from the field better than their opponents, finished +6.8 in rebounding and +1.1 in turnover margin, and they averaged 7.8 steals per game.  They compiled these stats playing in one of the two toughest leagues.

Wake Forest lost five of their final six games and fell several places in their seeding.  The Demon Deacons have a negative turnover margin, which is always a tough thing to overcome in the Big Dance.

This game should be interesting due to the fact that neither team is playing as well as they could.  We think Texas will play a little more cohesively in the opening round and survive and advance. 

Prediction: Texas 77  Wake Forest 72

 

#5 Temple (14.5) vs. #12 Cornell (10.2)

A lot of prognosticators are going with Cornell to become yet another 12-seed upset winner and even advance to the Sweet 16, becoming the first Ivy League team to make it that far since Penn lost to Duke in the Sweet 16 in 1980.

The Big Red earned the respect of the nation when they played at Kansas and lost by just five points.

This was Temple’s best team in years—maybe the best since 1988.  The Owls, as they have for decades, play tough defense on the perimeter, denying the ball from being passed inside and getting tight on three-point shooters.  They don’t force many turnovers, but they commit less than 11 per game. 

Cornell coach Steve Donahue was an assistant to Temple coach Fran Dunphy, so these coaches know what to expect in this game.  We’re going with this five-seed to avoid the upset.

Prediction: Temple 68  Cornell 60

 

#4 Wisconsin (16.1) vs. #13 Wofford (5.3)

The Badgers cannot take the Terriers lightly.  Wofford is another 13-seed team capable of pulling off an upset.  Expect 40 minutes of half-court offense with less than 130 total points scored.

Both teams tend to rely on one player to bear the scoring burden.  For Wisconsin, guard Trevon Hughes is the go-to guy.  For Wofford, forward Noah Dahlman is the key offensive threat.

It will be easier for Wisconsin to shut down Dahlman than Wofford to shut down Hughes, and Hughes has a little better quartet of teammates. 

Prediction: Wisconsin 63  Wofford 56

 

#6 Marquette (12.2) vs. #11 Washington (16.9)

This will be one game you will want to tune in if you have March Madness on Demand.  We think it will be very entertaining.

Marquette will move the ball around the perimeter and take a lot of threes.  If they hit 35% or better, they will be tough to beat.  However, the Golden Eagles are weak on the boards, and if those treys don’t fall, they cannot win.

Washington is not getting much respect coming out of the weak Pac-10.  The Huskies won their final seven games including the league tournament to earn an automatic berth here.  They can score points in bunches, and even though they are on the small side, they are the best rebounding team in the Pac-10.  That happens to be Marquette’s weakness.  That happens to be why UW will still be playing Sunday.

Prediction: Washington 82  Marquette 75

 

#3 New Mexico (19.6) vs. #14 Montana (3.2)

At first glance, this looks like another blowout that you see when a number three takes on a number 14.  However, Montana is not to be disregarded without a fight.  The Grizzlies found themselves down by more than 20 points to Weber State in the Big Sky Championship Game and came back to win.

Montana plays tough defense and works patiently for intelligent shots.  This style of play may be a bit boring, but it can be quite effective if the players stay within the frame of the philosophy.

New Mexico wins games through tough hustle.  The Lobos are tough on the boards, and they seldom turn the ball over more than a dozen times per game.  They can pose tough matchup problems for a lot of teams, because they can post up their guards and bring their forwards out high to shoot the three.  We’ll go with the Lobos to win, but it may be a lot more difficult than most people expect.

Prediction: New Mexico 72  Montana 63

 

#7 Clemson (12.3) vs. #10 Missouri (14.7)

This will be a helter-skelter game from start to finish.  These teams are both reliant upon forcing turnovers and converting them into fast break points.  We expect a lot of physical play with the referees letting a lot of contact go.

Missouri relies a little too much on its outside game, while Clemson has some inside presence.  In the Big Dance, the teams that can get offensive putbacks are usually the teams that survive and advance.  We don’t think Missouri will have an answer for Clemson forward Trevor Booker.

Prediction: Clemson 77  Missouri 72

 

#2 West Virginia (23.5) vs. #15 Morgan State (-0.2)

Morgan State has been here before.  The Bears lost to Oklahoma in the first round last year.  Coach Todd Bozeman likes for his team to move the ball up the floor quickly and bang it inside.  That might work in the MEAC, but this is not the MEAC.

West Virginia looks a little sloppy at times, and the Mountaineers don’t shoot the ball all too well, but they play tough defense and dominate on the boards.  WVU enters this tournament with a chip on its shoulder after flopping in the first round against Dayton last year.  Coach Bob Huggins’ squad has played in several nail-biters this year, and they should be ready to play.

Prediction: West Virginia 69  Morgan State 52

 

South Regional

#1 Duke (34.4) vs. #16 Arkansas Pine Bluff (-11.5)

Well, we blew the play-in game, but luckily that’s a Mulligan in bracket picking.

Duke will get a breather game in their opener.  The Blue Devils will apply pressure man-to-man defense and force the Golden Lions to commit numerous turnovers.  Duke’s big guys will repeatedly get offensive rebounds when the Blue Devils miss shots, and those players will clean the defensive glass as well.

UAPB should be fortunate that they won the play-in game.  They will give up more points in the first half of this game than they did in the entire game Tuesday night.

Prediction: Duke 87 Arkansas Pine Bluff 59

 

#8 California (11.4) vs. #9 Louisville (9.5)

Louisville beat Syracuse twice this year, but the Cardinals are not nearly as good this year as they were last year.   This UL team lacks the little something extra to advance very far in this tournament.

Cal won their first outright Pac-10 regular season title since Darrall Imhoff led the Bears to the National Championship Game against Ohio State in the 1959-60 season.  This edition of Bears is the polar opposite to that earlier version.  Cal is strictly a perimeter-oriented team that must shoot the ball well in order to win.

This one is a true tossup game.  It will be a contest of better offense vs. better defense.  Cal has to travel almost 3,200 miles, and the long trip could be their undoing.

Prediction: Louisville 72  California 68

 

#5 Texas A&M (12.7) vs. #12 Utah State (17.3)

This is one of those 5-12 games where the PiRate system shows the underdog to be the better team.  Utah State would be the outright favorite in this game if they played a little better defensively, especially on the perimeter.

Texas A&M played one of the toughest schedules in the nation, and the Aggies showed they could go head-to-head with them.  Their defense is tough, and the Aggies from Texas should hold the Aggies from Utah well below their scoring and shooting averages.  A&M doesn’t shoot the ball all that well, and this should be a close game.  We’ll go against the PiRate chalk and take the Big 12 team.

Prediction: Texas A&M 70  Utah State 66

 

#4 Purdue (15.4) vs. #13 Siena (17.8)

This year, we like the 13-seeds better than the 12-seeds as upset possibilities.  Purdue would probably have been a 10-seed or even missed the tournament altogether had Robbie Hummel been injured all season.  Without Hummel, the Boilermakers are not much better than your average NIT team.

Siena defeated Vanderbilt in the first round of the 2008 NCAA Tournament and Ohio State in the first round last year.  The Saints may be a little better this year thanks to a balanced team.  Siena has four starters that can score 20 points on any given night.  They have an inside presence with Alex Franklin and Ryan Rossiter combining for more than 19 rebounds per game.  Throw in a +3 turnover margin, and the Saints get seven more scoring opportunities per game than their opposition. 

We will call the upset in this game, but we give a warning.  Star players have missed NCAA Tournament games in the past, and those starless teams found a way to win.  Loyola Marymount won three games in the Big Dance after Hank Gathers died.  Going back several years to 1965, Wichita State made it to the Final Four after losing their top two players to eligibility.

Prediction: Siena 70  Purdue 65

 

#6 Notre Dame (6.5) vs. #11 Old Dominion (18.8)

This should be an entertaining game with a lot of inside action.  Notre Dame’s Luke Harangody missed multiple games due to injury in February, and the Irish defense stepped up and did the job.  With the big forward back, the Irish are playing their best ball of the season.  While they finished the season winning just eight of their final 13 games, those five losses came by a combined nine points.

Old Dominion is one of those teams like Butler and St. Mary’s that big-six conference teams don’t want to play.  The Monarchs dominate on the boards and seldom give up a high-percentage shot. 

We look for this one to stay close throughout, and the difference could be which team has the better outside shooting day.  If one team has a decent enough outside shooting day to force defenses to stretch, their inside game will become too strong to lose.

While ODU has much better total numbers, we think Notre Dame will get the job done.

Prediction: Notre Dame 71  Old Dominion 66

 

#3 Baylor (21.39) vs. #14 Sam Houston St. (10.33)

Watch out for Baylor!  The Bears rate in that elite group of teams capable of getting to Indianapolis.  In the Bracketnomics Class blog, we mentioned that you needed to be alert for a team that shoots 48% from the field and allows only 38%.  Baylor is one of two teams that meet this criteria.

The Bears also dominate on the glass, and if it weren’t for a negative turnover margin, we would pick them as a Final Four team.  Some future opponent will exploit this liability and defeat them, but it won’t be Sam Houston.

The Bearkats are an interesting and fun team to watch play.  They begin firing threes the moment they enter the gym.  It won’t get the job done in this game.

Prediction: Baylor 81  Sam Houston 67

 

#7 Richmond (10.0) vs. #10 St. Mary’s (10.1)

This game could come down to pace.  If Richmond presses the tempo and makes this a maximum possession game, the Spiders will have a decided advantage.  Richmond needs to speed the game up to force St. Mary’s into unforced errors.

Seldom in the opening round of the tournament do we ever see a team consciously trying to speed up the game.  Nerves and uncertainty usually slow these games down until midway through the second half.

St. Mary’s will win this game if the total number of field goal attempts is 115 or less.  If the pace is average to below average, their seven-man rotation will be able to avoid fatigue.  Center Omar Samhan can control the lane in this game and give the Gaels a strong advantage inside.

Prediction: St. Mary’s 73  Richmond 67

 

#2 Villanova (19.5) vs. #15 Robert Morris(-2.9)

This game should be a mismatch, but it could take some time before the Wildcats pull away.  VU finished the regular season on a 4-6 slide, but the Wildcats lost five of those games to NCAA Tournament teams from their conference.

Once this game begins, we look for the Colonials to keep it within striking distance for a couple of time outs before Villanova slowly pulls away.

Prediction: Villanova 78  Robert Morris 63

 

Midwest Regional

 

#1 Kansas (28.7) vs. #16 Lehigh (0.22)

If there is a chance that one team will top 100 points in the first round without going into multiple overtimes, this game is the one.  Kansas will begin its march to the Final Four with a tune-up game. 

Lehigh will take 25 or more three-pointers in this game, but we believe the Jayhawk defense will force many bad shots from the outside.  KU will then score 1.3-1.5 points per possession.  We’re sorry if you get stuck with this game and cannot get another.

Prediction: Kansas 94  Lehigh 61

 

#8 UNLV (11.7) vs. #9 Northern Iowa (11.7)

How about this for tossup game status?  Not only is this an eight-nine game, their criteria scores are equal.

This game comes down to how well the Panthers can stop the Runnin’ Rebels outside shooting game.  We think UNI will be able to hold the UNLV backcourt of Tre’Von Willis, Oscar Bellfield, Anthony Marshall, and reserve Kendall Wallace under their norms.  At the same time, look for UNI brute center Jordan Eglseder and forward Adam Koch to dominate on the inside.  Combine that with a defense that fits the opponents’ offense like a glove, and we see the Missouri Valley team advancing.

Prediction: Northern Iowa 58  UNLV 53

 

#5 Michigan State (19.5) vs. #12 New Mexico St. (3.4)

We cannot see a 12-seed upset in this game.  The Aggies have a negative R+T rating, which means they typically allow more scoring opportunities than they create.  Against a seasoned NCAA Tournament team, one coming off a visit to the national title game, that won’t be the winning recipe.

Michigan State will win the rebounding battle by 10 or more in this game.  If the Spartans don’t turn the ball over 18 or more times, they will be comfortably ahead by the first TV timeout of the second half.

Guard Chris Allen is expected to return to action after serving a one-game suspension for arguing with the coaching staff.

Prediction: Michigan State 75  New Mexico State 62

 

#4 Maryland (19.5) vs. #13 Houston (1.9)

Houston got hot and won the CUSA tournament after being picked to contend for the conference championship and finishing in the middle of the pack.  The Cougars cannot rebound.  While Maryland is only so-so on the boards, the Terps will win this battle by at least five caroms.

Houston relies on putting pressure on the ball and trying to play in the passing lanes to get steals and force turnovers.  Maryland takes care of the ball and can exploit this type of defense.

Throw in the fact that the Terps play tough defense, and this one looks like a huge mismatch.  Maryland comes mighty close to qualifying for the special field goal percentage criteria.  They connect on 47.2% of their shots and hold opponents to 38.8%.

Prediction: Maryland 83  Houston 70

 

#6 Tennessee (18.9) vs. #11 San Diego State (15.6)

This has the makings of a good game between similar styles.  Tennessee likes to force turnovers and run the break for quick baskets.  In the half-court offense, they try to work the ball inside.  The Volunteers aren’t the best outside shooting team.

San Diego State plays like your typical Steve Fisher-coached team.  The Aztecs have a dominating inside game and hold a +6.7 rebounding edge over their opposition.  The Aztecs aren’t great three-point shooters either, but inside the arc, they shoot almost 55%.

Tennessee is mad at being lowered to a number six seed in a year where they knocked off Kansas and Kentucky, but the Vols went only 10-7 away from home.  They are primed to make a run to the Sweet 16 if the team has enough gas in the tank.

Prediction: Tennessee 72  San Diego State 65

 

#3 Georgetown (18.0) vs. #14 Ohio U (0.7)

This game is a mismatch similar to your typical 1-seed vs. 16-seed game.  Ohio should have been a lower seed.  The Bobcats finished below .500 in a weak MAC this year, and they have no chance against the Hoyas.

Georgetown is not as complete this year as in past seasons.  They are a definite upset possibility, but it won’t happen in this round.  The key to the Hoyas advancing to the Sweet 16 will be how much the regulars can rest in this one. 

Prediction: Georgetown 72  Ohio 59

 

#7 Oklahoma State (6.2) vs. #10 Georgia Tech (9.5)

A very strong Big 12 allowed the Cowboys to move up to a seven-seed, when their performance looks more like a 10-seed.  Georgia Tech belongs as a 10-seed, so this game should be close and exciting.

OSU is a hot and cold team that won’t be around next week.  They either hit from behind the arc or get beat. 

Georgia Tech isn’t a world-beater, but the Yellow Jackets play somewhat consistently.  They will control the boards in this game, but they are turnover prone.  OSU’s shot at winning hinges on how many times they can force Tech into floor mistakes.  We think they will come up a bit short, but this game should be 40 minutes of entertaining ball.

Prediction: Georgia Tech 72  Oklahoma State 68

 

#2 Ohio State (16.8) vs. #15 UCSB (-4.5)

The Buckeyes won 16 of their final 18 games including the regular season and tournament championship in the Big Ten.  Evan Turner is a mini-Magic Johnson.  He can do it all, and he deserves serious consideration for national player of the year.  He isn’t a one-man team, but the Buckeyes’ only liability is a lack of depth.  They go only seven deep, and the two key reserves don’t contribute all that much.

UCSB is one of the two teams that must be immediately eliminated due to a negative R+T rating.  Their stay in the Dance will last just one number, and they will feel like their rival cut in on them in the middle of the song.

Prediction: Ohio State 76  UCSB 54

 

West Regional

 

#1 Syracuse (23.6) vs. #16 Vermont (-3.8)

The ‘Cuse is primed for another run to the Final Four.  Except for a lack of depth, this team would be even with Duke and Kansas.  It won’t bother them in the first two rounds, as the Orange won’t be extended by pressure defense.

This is not the Vermont team of 2005 that actually won an opening round game.  This version of Catamounts is just happy to be here, and they will put up no fuss and wave bye-bye after 40 minutes of tournament action.

We expect Vermont to keep it close for maybe 8-12 minutes before Syracuse goes on a big run and puts this one away before the intermission.

Prediction: Syracuse 90  Vermont 64

 

#8 Gonzaga (13.4) vs. #9 Florida State (14.4)

We don’t believe this will be Gonzaga’s year to advance to the Sweet 16.  The Bulldogs don’t dominate on the glass and pick up nothing in turnover margin. 

This Florida State team reminds us a lot of the Seminole teams of Hugh Durham.  They play aggressive man-to-man defense and work the ball for intelligent shots. 

Gonzaga needs a good shooting effort every time in order to win, and the Seminoles hold opponents to just 37.4% from the field. 

Prediction: Florida State 67  Gonzaga 63

 

#5 Butler (14.2) vs. #12 UTEP (15.8)

This is a game that all five of us here would like to attend.  We think it will be the best of the 5-12 games, and it won’t be an upset if UTEP wins.  These teams are fairly even, and both are talented enough to advance to the second week.

If the question were, “which game has the best chance of going to overtime?” this game would receive strong consideration. 

We will go with the Miners to win a great game and become the favorite in the next round in a possible second classic matchup against another double-digit seed.  This is the 12-seed that has the best chance of pulling off the “upset.”  We don’t call a 50-50 game an upset.

Prediction: UTEP 79  Butler 77 in overtime

 

#4 Vanderbilt (11.2) vs. #13 Murray State (18.0)

Murray State rates as one of four teams not from a big six conference that we believe has the talent to make it to the Sweet 16.  The Racers are actually the most complete team in the tournament and best fit the criteria to go to the Final Four, but their schedule strength lowers their criteria out of that rarified air.

Murray outscores their opponents by 17 points per game.  They shoot better than 50% from the field, and they allow only 38.6% shooting on defense.  They control the boards with a +6.0 margin, and they force more than 17 turnovers per game with 10 steals per game.

Vanderbilt was a fatigued team down the stretch, closing 8-5 after opening 16-3.  In that last 13 games, they outscored their opponents by just two per game.  The Commodores just barely avoid being eliminated from consideration with an R+T of 0.6.  They outrebound their opponents by 0.7 per game and have a slightly negative turnover margin.  They rely too much on free throw shooting, and fouls are not called as frequently in the Big Dance.

We look for this to be a great game, but we’re going with another #13 seed to pull off the upset.

Prediction: Murray State 75  Vanderbilt 69

 

#6 Xavier (15.1) vs. #11 Minnesota (10.4)

Morgan State, Butler, Ohio State, Michigan State, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Purdue are a good list of teams in the Big Dance.  Minnesota owns wins over these seven Samurais.  Xavier doesn’t have a showcase win this year, and the Musketeers are not as tough as they have been in recent seasons.

Tubby Smith’s teams always play well in the Big Dance, while this is the first go around for Xavier coach Chris Mack.  In yet another mild upset, we believe Minnesota will advance to the second round.

Prediction: Minnesota 69  Xavier 66

 

#3 Pittsburgh (8.7) vs. #14 Oakland (4.3)

For those of you who believe the Selection Committee tries to put certain teams together, you might not see the irony in the pairing of these two teams.  First, Oakland is not from California.  The Golden Grizzlies are from Rochester, Michigan.  Pittsburgh is located in the Oakland suburb of the Steel City.  So, when we say the team from Oakland will win the game, we aren’t talking about the Golden State Warriors, and we’re not talking about the team with the word “Oakland” on their jerseys.

This is not the year for the Panthers.  Their numbers aren’t all that good, and they will not advance to the Elite 8 this year.  However, they will cruise in the opening round after maybe facing a struggle through the first couple of TV timeouts.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 67  Oakland 58

 

#7 BYU (24.5) vs. #10 Florida (10.5)

Many prognosticators are calling for the Gators to pull the small upset in the opening round, but we cannot see it happening.

BYU ranks along with Murray State as having the most complete criteria components in the tournament.  The Cougars outscore their opposition by nearly 18 per game.  They do tend to rely on a lot of foul shooting and three-point shots, but BYU also gets a lot of easy baskets via the fast break and secondary offense.  Their R+T rating is a whopping 13.5, as they own a +5.1 rebounding margin, +4.1 turnover margin, and pick off 8.5 passes per game.  Since they have a shooting percentage of 48.6%, they will score a lot of points.

Florida returns to the Big Dance for the first time since they won their second consecutive national title in 2007.  This team is lacking what those two champions had—a dominating inside game.  Center Vernon Macklin is capable of putting up decent numbers, but the Gators rely on perimeter players Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton to get the job done.  Walker is just 5-8, and he will have a tough time against the tall and lanky BYU guards.

Look for Jimmer Fredette and Jackson Emery to outduel the Florida guards, and the Cougars will prevail in a fast-paced game.

Prediction: BYU 85  Florida 77

 

#2 Kansas State (25.9) vs. #15 North Texas (-3.22)

After Duke, Kansas State may have drawn the best possible bracket.  The Wildcats have the talent to win this regional and possibly set up a fourth game with their in-state rival in the National Semifinal. 

This will be a fun team to watch.  Kansas State coach Frank Martin is a combination of Al McGuire and Bobby Knight with a little Bob Huggins thrown in.  He’s the coach most likely to implode or spontaneous combust during a game.  His antics are working this year, and his players respond by playing like their life is on the line.

North Texas will get killed on the boards in this game, and they don’t have a ball-hawking defense to even it out with a great turnover margin.  Unlike conference rival Western Kentucky, the Mean Green will not carry on the Sunbelt Conference’s recent success in the tourney.

Prediction: Kansas State 82  North Texas 65

 

Our Bracket

 

You have seen the 32 teams we believe will win the first round games.  Here is how we fill out the rest of our bracket.

Second Round Winners

 

Kentucky over Texas in a close game

Wisconsin over Temple

New Mexico over Washington

West Virginia over Clemson

Duke over Louisville

Texas A&M over Siena

Baylor over Notre Dame

Villanova over St. Mary’s

Kansas over Northern Iowa

Michigan State over Maryland in a great game

Tennessee over Georgetown

Ohio State over Georgia Tech

Syracuse over Florida State

UTEP over Murray State

Minnesota over Pittsburgh

Kansas State over BYU in a thriller

Sweet 16 Winners

Kentucky over Wisconsin

West Virginia over New Mexico

Duke over Texas A&M

Baylor over Villanova

Kansas over Michigan State but a fantastic upset bid

Ohio State over Tennessee

Syracuse over UTEP

Kansas State over Minnesota

Elite 8 Winners

West Virginia over Kentucky

Duke over Baylor

Kansas over Ohio State

Kansas State over Syracuse

Semifinal Winners

 

Duke over West Virginia

Kansas State over Kansas (The Wildcats finally beat KU in their fourth try)

National Championship

 

Duke over Kansas State

Might Coach K pull a John Wooden and announce his retirement after winning the semifinal game?  Might he be tempted to take a very large pay raise to coach the Nets for a year or two and then enjoy real retirement like his mentor The General is enjoying?

September 1, 2009

2009 Atlantic Coast Conference Preview

2009 Atlantic Coast Conference Preview

A PiRate Look

Four teams finished with 5-3 records in the ACC last year.  That’s not abnormal.  However, when 5-3 wins both divisions of a 12-team league, that’s a sign of real parity.  Unfortunately, it was a parity of mediocrity.  In 2007, Boston College won the Atlantic Division with a 6-2 record.  Wake Forest did the same in 2006.  This year, the parity should begin to wane some, but the races in both divisions should go down to the final week, and tiebreakers once again could determine the division title winners.  All 12 ACC members have exploitable liabilities, and many teams can take advantage of them.  However, no team has the tools to exploit all of those liabilities, so we expect no 8-0 conference records yet again.

Here are the preseason PiRate ratings for the league.  The ratings have been rounded to the nearest whole number even though we calculate them to two decimal places.  Thus, when you see multiple teams with the same rating, they are not actually exactly even.  To understand what the rating means, it is set so that 100 is average.  Thus, a rating of 90 means the team is 10 points weaker than the average team in the FBS.  The average of all 120 FBS teams should round to 100 if the math has been successfully calculated.

For those who have not followed the PiRate Ratings before and wonder about the home field advantage, we do not assign set in stone advantages.  These are assigned on a game-by-game basis.  For instance, when Florida State hosts Florida, the Seminoles only get about two points for home field advantage.  However, if a smaller school, such as Arkansas State comes to Tallahassee for Homecoming, FSU’s home field advantage jumps by several points. The PiRates think it’s ridiculous to issue a blank home field advantage for all teams or even assign a range of set home field advantages.

  Atlantic Coast Conference Preseason PiRate Ratings  
   

 

Prediction *

 

 
  Team

PiRate

ACC

Overall

 
  Atlantic Division

 

 

 

 
  Florida State

116

5-3

7-5

 
  Clemson

113

6-2

10-3

#

  Boston College

109

1-7

4-8

 
  North Carolina St.

108

3-5

6-6

 
  Wake Forest

106

4-4

8-4

 
  Maryland

98

2-6

4-8

 
   

 

 

 

 
  Coastal Division

 

 

 

 
  Virginia Tech

117

7-1

10-2

 
  Georgia Tech

115

7-1

10-3

#

  North Carolina

113

6-2

10-2

 
  Miami-FL

108

4-4

6-6

 
  Virginia

99

2-6

4-8

 
  Duke

97

1-7

3-9

 
   

 

 

 

 
 

*  Predictions not based on PiRate Rating but

 
 

on expected changes to rating during the year

 
 

# Clemson to upset Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship Game

 

 

Atlantic Division

Florida State:  The Seminoles are no longer the beast they were for a quarter century.  They are simply an above-average team that doesn’t challenge for national honors any more.  While they begin the season highly ranked in the PiRate Ratings, we just don’t see any way that they will stay there.  By October 22, we see FSU sporting a record no better than 4-3 and possibly just 3-4 with three tough games to play.

The Seminoles, once one of the toughest defenses to crack, appear quite vulnerable against both the run and the pass.  The defensive line no longer has all-Americans manning the four spots.  This year, we don’t even see an All-ACC caliber player up front.  Look for FSU to surrender more than four yards per rush for the first time in ages.

With a weaker pass rush, the secondary will find the going tough against quality passers.  The Seminoles will be vulnerable to quick receivers coming across the middle of the field.

The one real star on this side of the ball is linebacker Dekoda Watson.  He made eight stops for losses last season, but he’s going to see an extra blocker headed his way this year.  We envision FSU giving up 25 points per game and 350 total yards per game.

The offense is in better shape, and if the ‘Noles can manufacture an above-average rushing attack, they will be able to outscore several opponents.  It all starts up front, where State has the top line in the conference.  Center Ryan McMahon will start in the NFL early in the next decade, and guard Rodney Hudson could do so next year.  They should make the running game look better than it normally would and protect the QB with great pass blocking.

The fortunate QB is Christian Ponder.  He threw for just a little over 2,000 yards last year and with a so-so 14/13 TD/INT ratio.  Those numbers will be much better this season.  Ponder can take off and run at any time and could even lead FSU in rushing in several games.

A mediocre receiving corps will look better because Ponder will have more time to look for an open receiver.  Give any college receiver and extra two seconds to get open, and they will most of the time.

The running attack is not strong and will need exceptional blocking to match last year’s numbers (179 yards per game and 4.8 avg. per run).  Expect a group effort here with Jermaine Thomas leading the way.

The schedule gives the Seminoles a couple of easy wins (Jacksonville State and Maryland), one for sure loss (Florida), and several tough games they could win or lose (Miami, BYU, USF, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Clemson, and Wake Forest).  There will be days where FSU can win by outscoring their opponent, but there are going to be defenses that can slow them or shut them down.  It adds up to another just above average season and lesser bowl bid. 

Clemson: The team that has been picked to break out and have a big season every year in recent memory has never done so.  Tommy Bowden never could reach that next level.  Now it’s Dabo Swinney’s turn to try.  He went 4-3 after taking over at mid-season.  Swinney is primed to return CU to its old way of playing football—using the run as the principle weapon to set up the pass as a surprise weapon.  The defense should be better because they won’t be on the field for 67 plays per game.  Five to eight fewer plays by the opponents could lead to 35 fewer yards and three fewer points per game before factoring in the improvement on that side of the ball.

The Tigers’ defense is strongest on the back line.  The secondary has two shut down cornerbacks who will take away a lot of opponents’ passing plans.  Chris Chancellor and Crezon Butler can both make the All-ACC team.  Last year they teamed up for 15 knocked down passes and eight interceptions.

All three of last year’s starting linebackers return, and Kavell Conner was the team’s leading tackler with 125.  Middle linebacker Brandon Maye is capable of having 100 tackles.  DeAndre McDaniel has moved to safety, and he’s going to put a hurtin’ on some poor receiver who tries to catch a weak pass.

Up front, Clemson’s line is among the best in the league.  Three starters return; Da’Quan Bowers, Jarvis Jenkins, and Ricky Sapp combined to record 23 tackles behind the line in ’08, and that number could improve this year.

Clemson gave up only 17.3 points and 300 yards per game last year, but we expect those numbers to be even better this year.  How about 15 points and 270 yards per game allowed?

The offense wasn’t a standout attack unit last year, and the Tigers might only match those numbers of 25 points and 329 yards per game, but it’s how those numbers will be accrued that counts.  We expect CU to run for 190 and pass for 140 yards per game, using three more minutes of clock time.

New quarterback Kyle Parker is not much of a passing threat, but he can run the ball like a fullback in the open field.  When CU must pass, Willy Korn could be the man doing so.

At running back, Clemson has super quick C. J. Spiller returning after finishing second on the team in rushing last year with 629 yards and seven scores.  He caught 34 passes out of the backfield and could be used on play-action and screen passes this season, as well as being a safety valve on other plays.

The receivers will take on less responsibility this year, and they will be required to block downfield more than last year.  Tight end Michael Palmer could see more passes thrown his way because Parker will command the linebackers to keep him in their sights lest he take off and run.

The offensive line returns intact from last year, and it is the equal of the OL at Florida State.  They will open holes for Spiller and protect Parker or Korn on passing plays.

The schedule presents a few bumps.  CU must play at Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina State, and South Carolina.  One of the non-conference home games is against TCU, who should be 2-0 and highly ranked when they visit on September 26.

Boston College: It may just be a hunch, but all of us here at the PiRate Ratings believe there’s going to be a collective BC headache this year in Chestnut Hill.  For the third time in four seasons, the Eagles have a new head coach.  Frank Spaziani has been the head coach at BC before—for the 2006 Meineke Car Care Bowl against Navy (BC won 25-24).  In addition to the change at the top, the Eagles will have to go with a quarterback they didn’t plan on starting.  Dominique Davis couldn’t keep up his academic load and was dismissed from the team.

The new quarterback is yet to be determined, but freshman Justin Tuggle is in the lead with a week to go before the season begins.  Codi Beck, a former fullback, and Dave Shinskie are in the picture as well.  The BC passing game is going to falter some, and it wasn’t all that spectacular last year.  In the final three games against Maryland, Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship game, and Vanderbilt in the bowl, Davis and Chris Crane completed just 43% of their passes.

Two of the top three receivers from last year return, but Rich Gunnell and Justin Jarvis are not going to be attracting the eyes of NFL scouts.

The running game will have to step it up a notch if BC is to score consistently this year.  Montel Harris and Josh Haden teamed up for 1,379 yards at a 4.6 average last year and could top that this year by 200 yards. 

A usually strong offensive line will not deviate from that statement this year.  However, they aren’t as good as either Florida State or Clemson. 

The defense was tough last year, giving up just 268 total yards per game.  The defense suffered a big blow when linebacker Mark Herzlich, was diagnosed with bone cancer.  We here wish him a speedy recovery and hope he is able to return to the field in 2010.  Herzlich was a one-man wrecking crew leading BC with 110 tackles, 13 behind the line, breaking up eight passes, and picking off six more.  He cannot be replaced by anybody on the roster.  Mike McLaughlin takes over as the leader of this side, and he could be considered a junior Herzlich.

The Eagles are going to regress some in the trenches following the loss of two NFL draftees at tackle.  B. J. Raji was a 1st round pick and Ron Brace went in the 2nd round.  Expect to see teams running line plunges for a few extra yards against the defense.

The secondary returns three starters who need to do a much better job this year in order to make up for a weaker trio of linebackers.  Wes Davis has a chance to shine from his free safety position.

After two easy games to start the season, BC opens conference play at Clemson, and it could be ugly.  Road games against Virginia Tech and Notre Dame could produce the same result.  The Eagles could split their four home conference games, but they could easily lose all their road games.  It looks like a year away from bowl competition in 2009. 

North Carolina State: This was a tale of two seasons a year ago in Raleigh.  The Wolfpack began the year 2-6 and looked to be headed to a possible nine loss season.  Then, Coach Tom O’Brien’s team acted like a switch had been activated.  NCSU demolished Duke, Wake Forest, North Carolina, and Miami to sneak into the Papajohns.com Bowl (where they lost to an even hotter Rutgers team).  The Wolfpack could be better this year as a whole, but the record may not be any better as teams remember the shellacking they received in November and seek revenge.

Quarterback Russell Wilson earned 1st team All-ACC honors in his freshman season last year, and he is the leader in the clubhouse for repeating this year.  All he did as a freshman was pass for 17 touchdowns with just one little interception!  That’s got to be the greatest TD/INT ratio in a major conference ever!  Wilson can run the ball too, but our advice is for him to limit that this year.  Behind him, the reserves are much weaker, and Wilson is injury-prone.

Wilson’s top two targets are back in the fold this year.  Owen Spencer and Jarvis Williams combined to catch 57 passes for 1,123 yards and nine scores.  Both can burn a secondary for a long touchdown, and both can win a jump ball in the end zone.  Tight end George Bryan provides a nice secondary target and must be respected by the defense.

The returning running backs are more of the plodding, power variety than the quick burst of speed variety.  That could present a small problem, because it takes a good line to hold their blocks long enough for the backs to hit the holes.  The offensive line is the weakest unit on the offense.  NCSU could fail to rush for 100 yards per game in conference play.

The defense showed little signs of improvement in O’Brien’s second year in Raleigh, and it will be hard to show much improvement this year as well.  The secondary was hit hard by graduation and defections.  Two projected starters quit the team and transferred elsewhere.  It leaves a huge hole, and the Wolfpack might give up more passing yards than last year’s dismal secondary (249 yards per game and 62.2% completions).

More problems abound at linebacker, where Nate Irving, a potential All-American, saw his 2009 season end in a summer car crash.  That leaves Ray Michel as the only holdover in the middle of the defense.  Michel led the team with 85 tackles, but he’s no Irving.

The defensive line will have to get the job done, or else State will give up a lot of yards and points.  Willie Young has the potential to be a star but not the next Mario Williams.  He should be a first day draft pick next year, but he will see some heavy double teams this year.

The Wolfpack will pick up some easy wins against some weak competition (Murray State, Gardner-Webb, Duke, Maryland), but they will get it handed to them against the top tier teams in the league.  Expect something like a repeat of last year, but the wins won’t all come in November.

Wake Forest: Jim Grobe ranks as the top coach in the Atlantic Division.  He gets more out of his talent than any other head man.  He will have to come up with one great accomplishment to keep his defense from imploding after losing his three starting linebackers and three starting defensive backs.  Replacing Alphonso Smith (seven INT and 13 PBU) will not be possible.

Wake surrendered 18.3 points and 297 total yards per game last year, but the Deacs could give up close to that in passing yardage alone this season.  Brandon Ghee is the only returnee to the back seven, and he’s anything but a star.

The defensive line returns three starters, but only nose tackle Boo Robinson will contend for All-ACC honors.

With the top five tacklers, including first round draft pick Aaron Curry and fourth round pick Stanley Arnoux, the Demon Deacons will be much more angelic to enemy offenses in 2009.

All is not lost in Winston-Salem, for the Wake Forest offense has a chance to be really good this year.  Quarterback Riley Skinner is a master at the quick passing game.  He can lead a team downfield with a long, time-consuming drive with short passes; call it five yards and a cloud of wind.

When Riley throws, he will see some unfamiliar faces.  He won’t have D.J. Boldin around this year, after Boldin led the Deacs with 81 receptions.  In this offense, receivers can acclimate quickly with short routes.  Holdover Marshall Williams can be a great change of pace wide out, as he can get open deep.

The running game is not the same as the Wake Forest running games of 2002-2004, when all the cut blocking was giving them a bad reputation.  Look for quite an improvement here this year, as the top three backs return and could combine for 1,200-1,400 yards on the ground.  Skinner can sneak by for a first down on a scramble.

The offensive line returns five players who have started in their careers.  The two tackles, Joe Birdsong and Chris DeGeare will protect Skinner like he’s gold.

Expect a season much like 2007 in Winston-Salem this year.  Wake Forest will outscore opponents much like Florida State, and much like Florida State, they will falter on offense a few times and suffer some tough losses.  Still, it looks like a fourth consecutive bowl bid.  As always, there will be some coaching changes at power schools, and Grobe will probably wind up on a few short lists once again.

Maryland: This figures to be a long year in College Park.  The Terrapins suffered more to graduation than any league foe, and they have been wiped out in the trenches on both sides of the ball.  When a team cannot block at the line and gets blown off the line on defense, they aren’t going to win many games.

Let’s start with the offense.  Coach Ralph Friedgen has some weapons back, but without decent blocking, those weapons can produce only so much.  Quarterback Chris Turner is an average signal caller for this league.  He threw 13 touchdown passes, but he also tossed 11 interceptions.  He has a tendency to have wild streaks and miss his receivers. 

Turner has lost his top two receivers from last year.  Darius Heyward-Bey took a lot of flak when Oakland made him their first pick in the NFL draft with Michael Crabtree still on the board, but he’s set to start for the Raiders while Crabtree is set to lose the year and return to the draft.  Heyward-Bey led the Terps with 42 receptions and 609 yards, and there isn’t a player on the team who can rival his speed.

Maryland has a tough running back tandem returning in Da’Rel Scott and Davin Meggett.  Scott rushed for 1,133 yards and eight TDs last year, but it will be difficult if not impossible for him to repeat that feat.

The offensive line lost four key contributors and will take a step back this season.  Only center Dave Cost, who moved to the middle from guard, and part-time starting tackle Bruce Campbell return this year.  Expect Maryland’s offense to falter many times and average only 18-19 points and 300-325 total yards per game.

The news isn’t much better on the other side of the ball, as the entire starting defensive line is gone.  Tackle Travis Ivey has the most experience, but he made just 26 stops last year in nine games.

Only one starter returns at linebacker, but he’s the best player on this side of the ball.  Alex Wujciak led the Terps and finished second in the league with 133 tackles, 8 ½ of which went for losses.  The two new starters cannot come close to equaling the production of last year’s starters who combined for 171 tackles and 17 for losses.

The secondary will have four senior starters, two of whom started a year ago.  Cornerback Anthony Wiseman broke up 10 passes, but he’s likely to see opposing quarterbacks pass away from him more this year.  That may be a mistake because Nolan Carroll has the potential to be better than Wiseman.  He broke up eight passes last year after starting four games.

The Terp pass defense will suffer if the pass rush doesn’t help it some.  Give any QB an extra couple of seconds to pass, and he can shred Florida and Southern Cal with completed passes.

The schedule is going to keep Maryland under .500 this year.  Out of the conference, the Terps must face California in Berkeley to open the season and Rutgers.  They will be looking up at the rest of the Atlantic Division and will be fortunate to win more than two conference games and more than four overall.

Coastal Division

Virginia Tech: If one team is going to break through the parity party and run away from the field, this one is the favorite to do so.  However, the Hokies still have some issues to be resolved, and we think they will suffer at least one conference defeat and one out of conference defeat.

The unexpected loss of one player brings Tech back to the pack.  Star running back Darren Evans may have been a Heisman Trophy contender with a big year.  He ran for 1,265 yards and 11 touchdowns last year, but unfortunately, he suffered a season-ending ACL injury in practice.  It’s not like the backups who will come to the forefront are chopped liver, but they aren’t going to get into the Heisman Trophy picture either.  Instead of dominating in the running game, Tech will just be average here and rush for about 150-160 yards per game.

Quarterback Tyrod Taylor could actually become the leading rusher by default.  He better have a stellar season afoot, because he isn’t going to strike fear in the opponents with his arm.  Tight end Greg Boone will get some snaps out of the wildcat formation, but Coach Frank Beamer limits its use to a couple plays.

Taylor has a wealth of talent to catch his passes this year.  Every player with double digit receptions last year returns this year, led by Jarrett Boykin, Danny Coale, and the aforementioned Boone.  Taylor’s passing numbers will improve from about 130 to 175 yards per game.

The offensive line will give Taylor ample time to throw or run the ball, and they should be strongest in the off-tackle and wide running lanes on the left side where tackle Ed Wang and guard Sergio Render form an excellent tandem.

Beamer’s teams are noted for top notch defensive and special team’s play.  This year’s stop troops won’t disappoint, but they won’t live up to recent standards either.  Tech gave up 16.7 points and 279 yards per game last season, but those numbers will rise this year.  If they rise to 18 points and 300 yards, Tech will be okay and contend for another league championship.  If they top 20 points and 330 yards, then the Hokies might lose a key extra game that costs them the division title.

The question mark rests at linebacker, but we believe they will be okay there even though the two lost players were the top two tacklers.  Cam Martin and Cody Grimm platoon at the whip linebacker position, and they totaled 122 tackles with 19 ½ for losses. 

Up front, three starters return, including Jason Worlds at end.  Worlds will contend for 1st team All-ACC honors after earning 2nd team accolades last year.  He led Tech with 18 ½ stops behind the line including eight dumps of the quarterback.

The secondary returns three starters as well.  They were one of the best in the nation last year, but they should be even better in 2009.  Cornerback Stephan Virgil and safety Kam Chancellor will vie for all-conference honors.

Virginia Tech faces three out of conference foes expected to contend for division championships in their respective conferences.  The Hokies begin the season playing Alabama in Atlanta.  They also host Nebraska and make a visit to East Carolina with revenge on their minds.  They must make an even more important second trip to Atlanta on October 17 to face Georgia Tech.  The winner of that game could be the Coastal Division representative in the ACC Championship Game.

Georgia Tech: Paul Johnson is the nation’s top contrarian coach.  In an era where the spread passing game is all the rage, Johnson is still a proponent of the old option offense made popular by the Split-T in the 1940’s and 50’s and the veer and wishbone of the 60’s and 70’s.  The so-called football experts claimed a BCS conference team could not succeed running such an archaic and antiquated offense.  Let us let you in on a little secret folks: with the right personnel, the single wing offense from the 1920’s could devastate BCS defenses today. 

Johnson’s teams at Navy and Georgia Southern, as well as the days when he was an offensive coordinator at Hawaii and Navy the first go-around always made huge strides on offense in the second year of his implementing his package.  We expect year two at Tech to be more of the same.

10 starters return to an offense that averaged 24.4 points and 372 yards per game (273 on the ground).  It is our belief that the Yellow Jackets will top 300 rushing yards per game this year and score upwards of 30-35 points per game.  Start with an experienced Josh Nesbitt at quarterback, who rushed for 693 yards and seven touchdowns in his first season running the option.  Backup Jaybo Shaw showed promise as well, and it is required of this offense to have more than one capable quarterback.

Jonathan Dwyer thrived in the new offense, gaining 1,395 yards and scoring 12 times, while averaging an eye-popping seven yards per carry.  It earned him ACC Offensive Player of the Year.  His numbers could decline a little but for a great reason.  Former 1,000 yard rusher at Louisville Anthony Allen is now eligible after sitting out a year.  It wouldn’t surprise to see both Dwyer and Allen top 1,000 yards on the ground and wear out some defenses.  When defenses bunch up to stop those two, watch out for the pitch to two speedy slot receivers.  Lucas Cox and Roddy Jones combined to average 8.7 yards every time they ran the ball.  There could be a game where Jones,  Allen, and Dwyer all top 100 yards!

Cox and Jones are pass catching threats to go all the way every time they receive a surprise pass.  Demaryius Thomas caught 53% of Tech’s completed passes and accumulated 49% of the yards.  He will see more deep balls thrown his way this year. When Georgia Tech passed the ball last year, they averaged 7.8 yards per attempt and 17.4 yards per completion.  Those numbers could be more like 9.5-10 yards per attempt and 18-22 yards per completion this year.  If so, the Techsters will be almost impossible to stop.

The offensive line has four starters returning if you count tackle Nick Claytor a starter.  He started the final five games and played spectacularly against some very strong defensive opponents.  This unit is all about run blocking, and they will break down if Tech finds itself in too many obvious passing downs. 

Not to be overlooked is an experienced defense that returns its top five and eight of its top nine tacklers.  Tech will be much tougher this year against the pass, as six of the seven back defenders will return to the starting lineup.  The Jackets gave up 193 passing yards per game last year and picked off 17 passes.  Look for those numbers to improve to 170 yards and 20 interceptions in ’09.

The star of the secondary is rover Morgan Burnett, who intercepted seven passes and broke up eight more.  He found time to bring down seven runners behind the line as well.

At linebacker, all three 2008 starters return.  They weren’t stellar, but they were more than adequate.  None will make the All-ACC team, but they won’t be a liability either.

Up front, Tech has a little to worry about, and it will be their Achilles heel.   Three key players have used up their eligibility, and only end Derrick Morgan returns.  Tech could see its rushing defense numbers jump from 120 to 150 yards allowed per game.

The annual rivalry finale with Georgia is the only non-conference game for the Yellow Jackets to fret over, as they should handle the other three.  The schedule favors Tech in the Coastal Division race, as they host Virginia Tech and North Carolina.  Back-to-back Thursday night games against Clemson and Miami could decide whether the Virginia Tech game in October will be for the division title. 

North CarolinaCoach Butch Davis has quickly rebuilt the North Carolina football program back to where it was during the Bill Dooley and Dick Crum days.  The Tar Heels may soon be as successful on the gridiron as they are on the hardwood.

Nine starters return to a defense that gave up 21.2 points and 365 yards per game.  Expect those numbers to improve to 18-20 points and 325-350 yards per game.

The strength of the defense is the line.  The front four could be one of the five best in the nation this year, as all four starters return to the fold.  Tackles Cam Thomas and Marvin Austin both top 300 pounds but have exceptional first movement on the snap of the ball.  All four of the second four return as well, so the Tar Heels will have the best depth in the nation outside of Gainesville, Florida or Norman, Oklahoma.

Two starters return at linebacker, and middle linebacker Quan Sturdivant will be playing for pay in a year or two.  Sturdivant led UNC with 122 tackles and played tough against the pass as well.

Three starters return in the secondary, and two of them should make the All-ACC team.  Cornerback Kendric Burney and safety Deunta Williams combined for 143 tackles, 8 ½ tackles for loss, six interceptions, and eight deflected passes.

The offense will struggle at times this year, and that’s why UNC will probably come up short in the Coastal Division.  The Tar Heels averaged 28 points on just 321 yards per game last year; the total yardage could go up, but the point total will drop.

T. J. Yates and Cameron Sexton were expected to split quarterback duties again this year, but Sexton transferred.  Yates has had problems staying on the field, even suffering a sprained thumb in spring practice.

Yates may not recognize his receivers when they line up before the first snap.  Five of the top six pass catchers are gone, leaving only Greg Little and his 11 receptions as a holdover.  Expect some drop in passes caught and yardage gained.

The running game should be able to make up for the lost passing yardage and maybe add a little more than that.  Shaun Draughn gained 866 yards last year, and we expect him to top 1,000 this season. 

The offensive line is the offensive question mark as three starters are missing from last year, including guard Aaron Stahl who had a year of eligibility left but decided to leave after graduating in May.

The Tar Heels’ schedule should allow them to win all four non-conference games (Citadel, Connecticut, East Carolina, and Georgia Southern).  Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech are both road games, and that’s why we believe UNC will miss out on a share of the division title by a game.  This team is good enough to win the title if the passing game can make any hay.  

Miami-FL: Here is a program that should always have enough talent to compete for the ACC crown.  However, the Hurricanes have yet to make it to the ACC Championship Game.  Coach Randy Shannon guided Miami to the Emerald Bowl last year, and that’s about where we expect them to be this season.

Inconsistent quarterback play has kept this program from turning the corner the last few years, and that problem will repeat this year.  Sophomore Jacory Harris is the only experienced signal caller left after two players left the team after spring practice.  True freshman A. J. Highsmith may see significant playing time if Harris struggles or is injured. 

Harris has almost all of his receiving weapons returning this year, so he should have a lot of open looks when he throws.  10 players had double digit receptions, and nine of them are back, headlined by Aldarius Johnson.  However, if Harris gets injured, we can foresee a major drop in passing yards in the games he misses—down to as low as 100-125 yards per game.

Luckily for the Hurricanes, they have two very capable running backs.  Graig Cooper led the team with 841 yards, and Javarris James added 286.  Those numbers will increase by about 200-300 yards split between the two.  As a team, we expect to see UM run for 175 or more yards per game.

The offensive line is a work in progress.  Tackle Jason Fox has NFL potential, but he cannot block three defenders at once.

Miami’s defense was dominant when the Hurricanes were competing for national titles.  The past two seasons, the ‘Canes have ranked in the lower half in defensive statistics in the ACC.  If they are going to return toward a defense of dominance, it will start with the linebackers taking over.  Colin McCarthy, Darryl Sharpton and Sean Spence all have all-conference potential.  Add in three returning starters up front, led by tackle Marcus Forston, and opponents will not run the ball with much success.

The secondary has some holed to fill, but it should be at least as good as last year.  Opponents may pass the ball for more yards, but they are going to pass the ball several additional times.

The Hurricanes will know their fate on Monday night, September 7.  The opener against Florida State in Tallahassee should eliminate the loser from their respective divisional race.  UM gets 10 days to prepare for the home opener against Georgia Tech, and that could mean the difference in an upset win instead of a loss.  If they can open 2-0, then Miami’s players could start to believe they can win.  Nine days later, the ‘Canes play at Virginia Tech, who will have the regular seven days between games.  If they are 3-0 at this point, they have a legitimate shot at winning the Coastal Division.  If they are 2-1, they are still in the race.  If they are 1-2, they can still recover and get to a bowl.  If they are 0-3, they are in big trouble because regardless of the record after three games, game number four will be a bad loss.  Oklahoma comes to Miami.

Virginia: Al Groh is on the hot seat in Charlottesville, and another losing season could be the end of his tenure at UVa.  Coach Groh, it doesn’t look too promising for you, because you’re missing a lot of talent from last year’s 5-7 team.

The Cavs appear to be ready to begin the season with a 5’9 quarterback.  Vic Hall is a former starting cornerback who played admirably on short notice in the season finale against Virginia Tech.  Coach Groh has called him a “Kung Fu Fighter,” as he gives everything and leaves it all on the field.  However, at 5’9, he’s going to have a tough time passing over the line. 

To make matters worse, all the key receivers from last year are gone.  Jared Green is the leading returnee after catching just 12 passes for 144 yards.  No other player on the roster caught even 100 yards worth of passes nor averaged 10 yards per catch.

It’s almost as sad at running back, as the leading returning rusher, Mikell Simpson, gained 262 yards at three yards per rush.

The offensive line has four starters back, so it gives the new skill players a little bit of cushion.  We don’t see the Cavs matching their offensive output of last year, and they only averaged 300 yards and 16.1 points per game.

The defense isn’t going to bail out the offense.  In fact, they have as many problem areas as the offense.  The top four tacklers have departed, including three key linebackers.  Three starters return to the secondary, and two of three starters return in the trenches, but as a whole, this defense is a bit small and not all that quick.  Opponents will run the ball with more success this year, and they won’t have to throw at the Cavalier strength. 

Virginia hosts Duke and should exact revenge after getting slaughtered last year in Durham.  The Cavs also host Boston College.  Those two are the only winnable conference games as we see it.  Two of the four non-conference games are going to be tough and probably losses.  TCU and Southern Mississippi can beat UVa.  The sports talk shows in the Commonwealth and in DC will be creating a lot of coaching rumors as soon as it becomes apparent that the Cavs will not enjoy a winning season.

Duke: Seven games into the 2008 season, Coach David Cutcliffe appeared to be on the verge of guiding Duke to a possible winning season and bowl game.  The Blue Devils were 4-3 with wins over soon-to-be bowl teams Navy and Vanderbilt.  However, in game eight, Duke had a chance to get to 5-3, but lost to Wake Forest in overtime after missing a makeable field goal at the end of regulation.  As so often happens with young and unsuccessful teams, that was enough to drain out the extra energy.  Duke didn’t win again, losing the final four games by an average of 13 points per game.

The Blue Devils may have blown their best opportunity to break through with a winning record, because they are going to take a step backward this season. 

A defense that surprisingly played much better than expected last year will regress back to usual form and give up 30 points per game this season.  Seven of the top 10 tacklers from last year graduated, leaving Duke with several holes on that side of the ball.

Two starters are missing from all three units on the stop side, but the biggest loss of all is linebacker Michael Tauliili, who led the team in tackles for the third time in his career.

Quarterback Thaddeus Lewis returns for his senior season after passing for 2,171 yards and 15 touchdowns with just six picks.  Backup Zack Asack was switched to safety and then dismissed from the team. 

Re’Quan Boyette returns at running back after missing last year with an injury.  He rushed for 432 yards in 2007, and he should form a large platoon that could improve upon last year’s 106 rushing yards per game by 20-30 more.

Lewis has a couple of decent holdovers at receiver, but he lost top receiver Eron Riley and his 61 receptions.  Combine that with three lost starters in the offensive line, and Lewis could be running for his life more than he did last year.

We see one winnable conference game on the schedule this year.  Maryland comes to Durham, and the Terps have several issues themselves.  Outside the league, Duke better take care of business when they play Richmond, Army, and North Carolina Central.  Richmond, the defending FCS National Champion, beat Duke 13-0 just three years ago, and they are a better team now.

Next up: Will Southern Cal make it eight in a row in the Pac-10?  Can Cal challenge the Trojans?  Will the Washington schools make progress?  Can Stanford make it to a bowl?

March 21, 2009

A PiRate Look At The NCAA Tournament: 2nd Round Games Played On Sunday, March 22, 2009

A PiRate Look At The NCAA Tournament

2nd Round Games Played On

Sunday, March 22, 2009

 

Friday’s games were a little more surprising than Thursday’s games, and several of the games that were won by the team expected to win were exciting and tough to the finish.  Siena has now won first round games in consecutive years over teams from a power conference.  The Saints could be on the verge of becoming Gonzaga East.

 

Our picks for day two went 11-5, bringing our total for round one to 24-8.  FWIW, we not only picked Siena to beat Ohio State, we almost hit the score exactly, missing by just two points.  Of course, a broken watch displays the correct time twice a day.

 

Here is a look at the Round of 32 games for Sunday.

 

(numbers in parentheses are PiRate Criteria scores)

 

East Region

Pittsburgh (14) vs. Oklahoma State (0) [Schedule strengths are equal]: The Panthers struggled against East Tennessee’s pressure defense, committing numerous turnovers.  They could have easily become the first number one seed to lose to a 16-seed.  Oklahoma State is a quicker, better version of ETSU, but Pittsburgh should be able to hold off the pesky Cowboys.  We expect Pitt to be ready for OSU’s pressure and play less error-prone ball.  Pittsburgh will advance to the Sweet 16.

 

Prediction: Pittsburgh 73 Oklahoma State 62

 

Wisconsin (2) vs. Xavier (8) [Wisconsin has a schedule 2 points per game stronger]: The Badgers held on tough to eke out an overtime win over Florida State Friday night, while Xavier had an easier workout against Portland State.  The Musketeers could sneak into the Sweet 16.  They are the type of team that can beat Pittsburgh and even Duke if their three big shooters are on their mark.  We believe Wisconsin’s best days are two years down the road, and it is a credit to Coach Bo Ryan to get them to the second round this year.  However, we expect the Badgers to be out of the Dance after this one.

 

Prediction: Xavier 64 Wisconsin 57

 

South Region

Arizona State (4) vs. Syracuse (4) [Syracuse has a schedule 3 points per game stronger]: This should be the best game of the day.  Arizona State has two excellent three-point shooters, and it takes a good outside shooting team to beat Syracuse.  The Orangemen will press the tempo and force the Sun Devils to play at a faster pace than they would like.  If Syracuse can keep from hitting the wall, they should advance.

 

Prediction: Syracuse 80 Arizona State 71

 

Midwest Region

Louisville (10) vs. Siena (5) [Louisville has a schedule 4 points per game stronger]: Siena had enough talent to top Ohio State, but Louisville will be too much for the Saints to handle.  The Saints will not be able to beat the Cardinals playing the same game against a team with better athletes.

 

Prediction: Louisville 79 Siena 62

 

Arizona (-2) vs. Cleveland State (7) [Arizona has a schedule 4 points per game stronger]: This should be a close game.  Arizona’s PiRate criteria score is a negative number, but when you add the four points for strength of schedule advantage, this game becomes a virtual tossup.  CSU plays terrific defense, while Arizona relies more on offense.  This game will be decided on the Cardinal side of the court.  If Jordan Hill can hit his inside shots, Arizona should prevail.  If Hill cannot get open or cannot connect from his normal range, then the Vikings can be this year’s surprise team in the Sweet 16.

 

Prediction: Arizona 65 Cleveland State 61

 

Dayton (5) vs. Kansas (10) [Kansas has a schedule 5 points per game stronger]: Kansas never expected North Dakota State to keep their round one game close for 35 minutes.  Dayton never really pulled away from West Virginia, but the Flyers led throughout their game.  Round two should be a different bird.  Kansas looked a little rusty after losing early in the Big 12 Tournament and going a week without playing.  They should play much better in round two, and Dayton won’t have enough talent to stop KU.

 

Prediction: Kansas 74 Dayton 64

 

Southern California (2) vs. Michigan State (7) [Michigan State has a schedule 1 point per game stronger]: On paper, Michigan State looks to be better than USC by double digit points.  However, USC has put it all together in the past two weeks and must be considered 7-10 points better today than they were in January.  We’ll stick with the Spartans to sneak by in this game, but a Trojan win would be no big surprise.

 

Prediction: Michigan State 71 Southern Cal 64

 

West Region

Missouri (14) vs. Marquette (9) [Schedule strengths are equal]: Missouri will wear Marquette down as the game wears on.  Eventually, the Tigers will go on a run in the second half and put this game out of reach.  A Memphis-Missouri Sweet 16 match would be possibly the most exciting game of the entire tournament.

 

Prediction: Missouri 74 Marquette 65

March 20, 2009

A PiRate Look At The NCAA Tournament: 2nd Round Games Played On Saturday, March 21, 2009

A PiRate Look At The NCAA Tournament

2nd Round Games Played On

Saturday, March 21, 2009

 

Thursdays games basically went according to expectations with a few exceptions.  One number 12 seed won over a five-seed when Western Kentucky controlled Illinois for much of the night.  We told you we thought WKU could pull off the upset, even though the system chose Illinois (but could not adjust for the loss of a key starter).  For what it’s worth, our Thursday picks went 13-3.

 

Here is a look at the Round of 32 games for Saturday.

 

(numbers in parentheses are PiRate Criteria scores)

 

East Region

 

UCLA (14) vs. Villanova (9) [Villanova has a schedule 2 points per game stronger]: Both teams had scares in round one and were fortunate to survive to round two.  The Bruins have the criteria advantage here, but Villanova has home town advantage plus a slight strength of schedule advantage.  This game will look similar to the 1971 championship game between these same schools.  UCLA won that won by single digits.  That Villanova team had two stars, whereas the UCLA squad had five really good players.  Usually five really good players can beat two stars, but home town advantage eliminates that advantage.  We’ll go with the Bruins in a very close game.

 

Prediction: UCLA 64 Villanova 62

 

Texas (3) vs. Duke (14) [Duke has a schedule 4 points per game stronger]: Duke has all the advantages here.  Watch Duke’s Gerald Henderson and Texas’s Damion James.  This is the key to this game.  If James can dominate better than Henderson, Texas has a chance.  We’ll select the Blue Devils to win, but it should be an interesting game.

 

Prediction: Duke 75 Texas 69

 

South Region

 

North Carolina (17) vs. LSU (14) [North Carolina has a schedule 4 points per game stronger]: You usually never see two power conference championship teams facing off in the second round of the tournament, but the SEC is down this year.  So the regular season SEC champion faces the regular season ACC champion.  Add to that the fact that both of these teams have PiRate criteria in the double digit range.  This is almost a home game for the Tar Heels, and they are the dominant team in this region.  Carolina advances to the Sweet 16, and the SEC is done for the season.

 

Prediction: North Carolina 84 LSU 70

 

Western Kentucky (2) vs. Gonzaga (19) [Gonzaga has a schedule  2 points per game stronger]: Gonzaga turned it on in the final minutes of the night on Thursday and put Akron away with a quick spurt.  Western took control quickly in their game against Illinois and then held off the Illini at the end.  While the Hilltoppers advanced to the Sweet 16 last year, while Gonzaga went home early, we feel the Bulldogs are poised to make the trip to the next round this year.

 

Predicition: Gonzaga 77 Western Kentucky 70

 

Michigan (-4) vs. Oklahoma (9) [Michigan has a schedule 1 point per game stronger]: We can sum this game up in three words: Blake Griffin’s Health.  If Griffin is close to 100%, this game will be over Sooner than expected.  Michigan knocked Clemson out in the first round because the Tigers couldn’t shoot straight.  Oklahoma won’t miss all those open shots and second-chance shots.  Michigan will have to hit close to 50% of their shots to stay in this one and connect on 8 or more treys.  If Griffin isn’t at full strength, then this game becomes much closer and moves toward being a tossup.

 

Prediction: Oklahoma 72 Michigan 63

 

West Region

 

Connecticut (12) vs. Texas A&M (2) [Connecticut has a schedule 2 points per game stronger]: We certainly hope UConn head coach Jim Calhoun is feeling much better, but we must begin to wonder if this could be his final year with the Huskies.  Maybe his players are beginning to think the same, and they want to make sure he goes out a champion.  It may or may not be the case, and they may or may not have the horses to go the distance, but the Huskies have enough in the tank to eliminate the Aggies.

 

Prediction: Connecticut 79 Texas A&M 73

 

Purdue (6) vs. Washington (9) [Washington has a schedule 1 point per game stronger]:  Purdue struggled with Northern Iowa, while Washington quickly dismissed Mississippi State.  We believe the Huskies will advance to the Sweet 16 to take on Connecticut in a game that will bring back memories for the fans and coaches of both schools.

 

Prediction: Washington 70 Purdue 60

 

Maryland (1) vs. Memphis (19) [Maryland has a schedule 2 points per game stronger]: Was Memphis playing a weak schedule all year when they ran up such a far record?  Are they the most overrated team since all those consecutive Depaul teams that lost in the first round when they were ranked number one or two in the nation?  We think not.  They ran into a tough team in the first round.  Maryland played a fantastic first game against Cal, and they could easily play another great one against Coach Cal.  In what we believe will be one of the most exciting games of the entire tournament, we’ll stick with the team we are picking to still be playing on April 6.

 

Prediction Memphis 72 Maryland 71

March 17, 2009

PiRate Bracketnomics: 12 Teams Can Win It All

PiRate Bracketnomics: 12 Teams Can Win It All

 

We hope you took time to read Tuesday’s Bracketnomics 505 course.  You need to read that first to understand the criteria used here at PiRate Central.

 

Using said criteria devised by our founder, we have isolated 12 teams capable of winning six games in the NCAA Tournament.

 

Unlike last year when there were four dominant teams, the dominance is diluted somewhat this season.  Last year, more than 10 teams could be immediately eliminated based on a negative R+T rating.  This season, only two teams (Mississippi State and Ohio State) fail to possess a positive R+T rating.  Thus, we will pick the Bulldogs’ and Buckeyes’ opponents to beat them.

 

Here is a look alphabetically at those 12 teams who best meet the criteria showing they are capable of going all the way.

 

Connecticut: The Huskies outscore their opposition by an average of 13.3 points per game.  They shoot 9.3% better than their opponents.  They own a rebounding margin of 8.4.  Their R+T is 7.6.  In most years, this would be good enough for a Sweet 16 berth and possible Elite 8 run.  This year, it is good enough to get them to the title game.  The Huskies will win their first game by as many as they want.  They will win game two rather easily.  In the Sweet 16, they could run into a bump if they face Washington, but they will clobber Purdue if the Boilermakers make it to Glendale, Arizona.  An Elite 8 match against either Missouri or Memphis will be a tough and exciting game.

 

Duke: The Blue Devils outscore their opposition by an average of 12.2 points per game.  They shoot only 1.8% better than the opposition, and that is their one weakness.  They out-rebound their opponents by 3 and have a 4.4 turnover margin, so they usually benefit with more scoring attempts.  Their R+T of 12 is good enough to get them through the first two rounds.  In the Sweet 16, they will face either UCLA, Villanova, or Virginia Commonwealth.  The Blue Devils would be expected to beat any of these three, but it wouldn’t be a cinch.  The Bruins also make this list.

 

Kansas: The defending National Champions are considerably weaker this year, but in a season where the NCAA is weaker, the Jayhawks have a shot at getting to Detroit.  Kansas outscores its opponents by 11.3 points per game.  They outshoot them by 9.1%, which is one of the best in the Dance.  They have a 7.3 rebounding advantage.  Their weakness is in turnover margin.  They don’t commit a bevy of turnovers, but they don’t force many this year.  That could hurt them if they face a team that can steal the ball.  Syracuse and Missouri exploited them in regular season victories.  A trip to the Sweet 16 is expected, but I think they could be in for a big shock in their first round game with North Dakota State.  It may take 36 minutes for KU to put this game away.  If they face Michigan State in a regional semi-final, the Jayhawks should win a tough, physical game.  Louisville might be too much to handle in an Elite 8 regional final.

 

Louisville: Rick Pitino has taken Providence and Kentucky to the Final Four.  Last year, he came close with UL.  This year, it looks like the Cardinals have the horses to make it to Detroit.  UL outscores their opposition by 12.3 points per game.  They shoot 5.8% better than their opponents.  They have a 2.5 rebounding advantage, a 2.7 turnover margin, and they average 9.3 steals per game.  Their R+T is 8.5.  Except for scoring margin, none of the other stats are dominant, but then again all of them are really good.  They have no weaknesses.

 

Memphis: Memphis wouldn’t normally qualify because they are not a member of one of the big six conferences.  However, the Tigers’ schedule was as strong as teams like Wake Forest and UCLA.  Just like last year, Memphis has what it takes to play six games in the tournament.  The Tigers outscore their opponents by 17.2 points per game, which qualifies them for elite dominance.  They shoot 8.1% better than their opposition.  Their rebounding margin is 6.2, and their turnover margin is 3.3.  They average 8.8 steals per game, and their R+T rating is a whopping 13.2.  This is a team that should cruise to the Elite 8, and then we would favor them over Connecticut.  Missouri could be a tough out in the Sweet 16, but the Tigers fit the criteria of a national champion.

 

Missouri: Coach Mike Anderson was an assistant at Arkansas when the Razorbacks made won the national title in 1994 and made it to the finals in 1995.  His Missouri Tigers play the same 40-minute, full-court game that Arkansas played in those days.  These type of teams can make up for so-so rebounding with exceptional turnover margin by way of steals.  The Tigers are a force to be reckoned with this year.  Missouri outscores their opponents by 14.6 points per game.  They outshoot them by 5.7%.  While they barely win the battle of the boards by an average of 0.4 per game, their turnover margin is 6.5, and they average a tournament best 10.6 steals per game.  With an R+T rating of 16.9, Missouri gets many chances to go on scoring runs.  In tight tournament games, as little as an 8-0 run in two minutes is enough to decide the game.  We like MU’s chances of winning their first two and getting to the Sweet 16.  They will have to face Memphis, and they will meet a team that can neutralize the press.  Although we believe Memphis will win and move on to the Final Four, Missouri just may be the toughest competition Memphis faces before Detroit.

 

North Carolina: We see the Tar Heels joining Memphis in Detroit.  UNC has the second best looking criteria after Memphis.  The Tar Heels outscore their opponents by an average of 17.4 points per game.  They shoot 6.5% better than they allow.  Their rebound margin is 7.3, and their turnover margin is 3.2.  The Heels average 8.5 steals per game, and their R+T is 13.8.  Their path to the Final Four is the easiest of any of the 12 teams listed here.  Radford will be little more than a scrimmage against the Tar Heel scrubs.  Neither LSU nor Butler has what it takes to beat them in round two.  Gonzaga could compete for a long time, but the Tar Heels would eventually overpower them.  In the region finals, UNC would handle Oklahoma, Clemson, Syracuse, or Arizona State.  The only thing that could keep the Tar Heels out of the Final Four is the injury to Ty Lawson.  If he can play up to his normal standards, we just cannot see another South Regional team beating them.

 

Pittsburgh: The Panthers defeated Connecticut twice but lost to Louisville.  They should be able to beat almost any team that tries to play physically against them, but they could run into trouble against fast teams that can score in transition.  Pitt outscores their opponents by 13.3 points per game.  They shoot 7.3% better than they allow.  Their rebounding margin of 9.8 is awesome, and their turnover margin of 1.1 further allows them extra scoring chances.  They average 7.1 steals per game, and their R+T rating is 11.7.  This is a team very capable of making it to Detroit.  They will handle East Tennessee with ease in round one and give their regulars ample rest.  Their round two game is going to be interesting, as both Tennessee and Oklahoma State have the necessary tools to aggravate the Panthers (much like the way Louisville did).  We still believe Pitt can get by either team and make the Sweet 16.  Their four possible Sweet 16 opponents do not have the skills to beat them, so if Pittsburgh gets to the Sweet 16, they will advance to the Elite 8 as well.  A regional final game against Duke would be a terrific game with both teams having a 50% chance of winning.  Ditto is they face Villanova, but the Panthers have revenge on their side in a match against the Wildcats. 

 

U C L A: This edition of Bruins is nothing like the last three editions in the Big Dance.  This UCLA team looks more like one of the Bruin teams from the Gary Cunningham/Larry Farmer/Walt Hazard years.  UCLA outscores their opponents by 12.7 points per game.  They shoot 4.9% better than they allow.  Their rebounding margin is 3.8, and their turnover margin is 3.6.  They steal the ball 8.4 times per game, and their R+T is 11.1.  Much like Louisville, the Bruins don’t really dominate in any phase, but they are really good in all phases.  As a 6-seed, they are not expected to make it past the field of 32, but it wouldn’t surprise us one bit if Ben Howland guides them back to the Elite 8.  Their first round game against VCU should be nip and tuck for a long time.  VCU won’t be able to rebound against them, and the Bruins should get enough offensive boards to win.  In the second round, we believe UCLA can upset Villanova.  They won’t get by Duke if they must play them for a trip to the Final Four, but an Elite 8 appearance would be a great accomplishment in a rebuilding season.

 

Wake Forest: The Demon Deacons are the third ACC team with a good shot of advancing deep into the tournament.  Wake outscores their opponents by an average of 11.1 points per game.  They shoot the ball 9.3% better than they allow.  Their rebounding margin is 6.  Their 0.2 turnover margin is basically nil, but they do average 8.5 steals per game.  Their R+T rating is just 6.4 due to the fact that they tend to become turnover prone occasionally.  The Demon Deacons received a favorable draw for the opening weekend.  We see them moving on to the Sweet 16, but they will face a Louisville team that just may be too much in the third round.  It should be a great game.

 

West Virginia: This team looks much like many of Bob Huggins’ Cincinnati teams.  The Mountaineers are the polar opposite of the team that made a run under former coach John Beilein.  They are a dark horse team to make a deep run.  WVU outscores their opponents by 10.8 points per game.  They only outshoot those opponents by 1.1%, and that will eventually be their downfall.  They own healthy rebounding (5.9) and turnover (3.6) margins.  They average just 6.8 steals per game, but their R+T rating is 11.8.  This team will fly under the radar, but the Mountaineers could upset Kansas in the second round.  If they can upset the Jayhawks, West Virginia has the horses to make it to Detroit.  They lost twice to Louisville, by six and three points, so they can even upset the Cardinals given a third chance.  We give WVU a 45% chance of beating Kansas and a 33% chance of advancing to the Elite 8.

 

Predictions For Bracketeers

 

This is a pressure-filled year for us.  How can we match the success of our founder?  Hopefully, we can do so by carefully following his theories and data.  Plus, we talked to him, and he endorsed our picks.

 

So, here goes.  In the East, three Pittsburgh, Duke, and UCLA all score 14 points in the criteria.  Duke and Pitt have stronger schedules, so we will call for the Blue Devils and Panthers to meet in the Elite 8.  We give a slight edge to Coach K’s troops, but that is almost negligible.  We do not see the East Regional winner winning the national championship.

 

In the South, North Carolina is overpowering.  The Tar Heels have no rival in this bracket.  Second seed Oklahoma and third seed Syracuse do not qualify for a spot in the top 12.  Fourth seed Gonzaga does qualify, and we will pick the Bulldogs to be the only team capable of stopping the Tar Heels.  We give Gonzaga a 15-20% chance of winning in this probable regional semifinal game.  North Carolina should then dispose of the East Regional Champion and advance to the title game.

 

In the Midwest, top-seed Louisville will have to dispose of defending champ Kansas to make the Final Four.  Fourth-seed Wake Forest cannot be ignored here.  Six-seed West Virginia can compete with anybody in this region, making the Midwest the strongest region overall.  We’re going to go with Huggy Bear and his West Virginia Mountaineers to sneak into the Final Four.

 

Memphis should emerge in the West, besting Missouri and then Connecticut in Glendale, Arizona.  The Tigers will then take care of business in the Final Four semifinal round to take on North Carolina.

 

In the National Championship Game, we look for Coach Cal to finally get his championship trophy.  We are picking Memphis to make up for their final minute lapse in the 2008 Championship Game and win the title this year.  It could be the start of a major dynasty, as the Tigers have an awesome group of recruits coming in for 2010.   

 

The Stats On All The Teams

 

When you see a stat in bold, it meets the minimum amount to qualify for an exceptional stat.  When you see it also underlined, it strongly meets the qualifying amount.  When it is also in italics, it is a dominating statistic.  Strength of Schedule (SOS) is used solely when pitting one team against another.

 

Team

Pts

FG%

Reb

TO

Stl

R+T

SOS

Akron

7.0

1.9

-0.9

4.1

7.7

6.7

48.91

Alabama St.

6.1

7.5

1.2

-0.8

5.6

0.1

40.46

American

6.1

7.2

2.9

0.4

5.4

3.4

46.85

Arizona

3.8

3.9

2.5

-0.7

6.0

1.5

56.79

Arizona St.

9.4

7.3

1.7

0.6

5.9

2.5

56.35

Binghamton

3.4

2.9

-1.6

1.5

7.0

0.9

46.95

Boston College

4.4

2.3

2.9

-0.8

6.2

1.7

55.16

B Y U

12.7

8.5

4.2

2.5

7.2

8.5

54.62

Butler

10.2

5.7

3.3

0.9

6.1

4.6

53.15

Cal St. Northridge

3.8

3.7

3.6

-0.4

9.0

2.7

48.83

California

6.7

4.5

2.3

0.5

4.9

2.9

56.00

Chattanooga

0.8

0.6

3.3

-1.1

6.3

1.6

49.33

Clemson

10.8

3.5

1.6

2.9

9.4

8.1

56.07

Cleveland St.

7.2

2.6

0.6

3.5

8.7

7.9

52.27

Connecticut

13.3

9.3

8.4

-0.6

5.8

7.6

57.42

Cornell

9.8

6.4

3.1

0.8

6.7

4.4

45.31

Dayton

6.0

3.2

5.3

1.0

6.3

6.8

53.19

Duke

12.2

1.8

3.0

4.4

8.5

12.0

60.86

E T S U

8.6

6.2

1.5

2.5

8.5

6.6

46.28

Florida St.

4.1

4.6

0.7

0.3

8.5

1.3

58.22

Gonzaga

17.6

12.0

3.6

3.9

7.5

10.6

53.21

Illinois

8.0

6.6

0.1

1.3

5.8

1.9

57.56

Kansas

11.3

9.1

7.3

-0.8

6.9

6.0

58.01

Louisville

12.3

5.8

2.5

2.7

9.3

8.5

58.80

L S U

9.4

4.2

5.6

4.2

7.6

13.3

53.66

Marquette

8.5

0.5

1.7

3.6

7.9

8.5

55.87

Maryland

3.0

0.5

-1.6

3.2

7.7

4.3

58.11

Memphis

17.2

8.1

6.2

3.3

8.8

13.2

55.82

Michigan

4.1

-1.1

-3.1

2.4

6.5

0.6

58.74

Michigan St.

9.0

4.1

9.9

-0.2

6.4

9.6

59.48

Minnesota

5.4

4.4

2.4

0.6

8.4

3.6

56.65

Mississippi St.

6.0

4.3

-0.7

-0.8

7.0

-2.0

55.62

Missouri

14.6

5.7

0.4

6.5

10.6

16.9

56.31

Morehead St.

3.1

2.3

8.0

-2.5

6.7

4.0

48.59

Morgan St.

5.3

2.2

3.9

2.0

6.6

7.1

44.96

North Carolina

17.4

6.5

7.3

3.2

8.5

13.8

58.00

North Dakota St.

12.2

4.0

4.5

2.2

7.1

8.2

45.05

Northern Iowa

4.2

3.6

3.1

-0.9

4.2

2.2

53.53

Ohio St.

5.1

7.5

-1.0

0.1

5.9

-0.9

57.80

Oklahoma

11.4

9.1

5.6

-1.1

6.9

3.8

57.78

Oklahoma St.

6.9

1.4

-1.1

2.8

7.7

4.1

59.57

Pittsburgh

13.3

7.3

9.8

1.1

7.1

11.7

59.27

Portland St.

5.5

0.3

0.9

0.7

7.5

2.2

45.45

Purdue

10.3

5.8

-0.3

3.5

7.2

5.7

57.48

Radford

5.1

7.2

6.9

-2.8

6.8

2.3

47.63

Robert Morris

5.7

5.1

1.7

0.7

8.6

3.1

46.18

Siena

7.6

3.7

-0.5

3.8

8.8

7.5

54.68

USC

4.9

6.8

5.5

-1.1

6.3

3.8

58.04

Stephen F Austin

10.3

7.2

1.4

2.8

6.1

5.5

46.99

Syracuse

8.8

7.5

2.2

-0.6

8.0

1.0

59.39

Temple

5.6

4.2

3.1

-0.8

5.6

2.0

56.16

Tennessee

6.1

1.5

4.6

1.8

6.7

7.5

60.50

Texas

6.8

3.6

4.7

1.3

6.2

6.6

56.58

Texas A&M

5.4

1.5

5.3

-0.3

5.0

4.9

55.77

U C L A

12.7

4.9

3.8

3.6

8.4

11.1

55.06

Utah

7.2

7.5

4.9

-3.2

5.0

1.1

57.90

Utah St.

10.8

7.8

7.0

-0.7

4.9

6.2

51.00

Villanova

9.5

5.3

4.1

2.1

8.0

8.1

57.30

Virginia Common.

8.6

6.6

-0.6

1.9

7.6

2.9

51.94

Wake Forest

11.1

9.3

6.0

0.2

8.5

6.4

55.29

Washington

9.3

3.8

8.4

0.1

7.6

8.6

58.08

West Virginia

10.8

1.1

5.9

3.6

6.8

11.8

58.84

Western Kentucky

5.4

1.5

4.8

0.1

5.7

4.9

51.41

Wisconsin

5.4

0.1

3.0

1.4

5.0

4.7

58.28

Xavier

10.0

7.4

8.4

-2.2

5.4

5.5

55.89

 

Round One Games

(numbers in parentheses are PiRate Criteria scores)

 

East Region

 

#1 Pittsburgh (14) vs. #16 East Tennessee (6) [Pitt has a schedule 13 points per game stronger]:  This game will be over quickly.  Pitt will dominate inside and put this one away in the first 10 minutes.  It could be a 20-point margin before halftime. 

 

Prediction: Pittsburgh 78 East Tennessee 56

 

#8 Oklahoma State (0) vs. #9 Tennessee (6) [Tennessee has a schedule 1 point per game stronger]:  These teams are similar, but Tennessee has just a little more talent than the Cowboys.  The Volunteers should win the battle of the boards by five or more, and the two or three extra offensive put-backs should decide this game.

 

Prediction: Tennessee 82 Oklahoma State 77

 

#5 Florida State (0) vs. #12 Wisconsin (2) [Schedule strengths are equal]: 12-Seeds are the ones that tend to draw the most attention at first round upsets.  Part of the reason is because 12-seeds are usually the last bubble teams to make the tournament.  Frequently, they are quite a bit better than their seeding.  This doesn’t apply in this game.  Wisconsin is lucky to be an invitee.  The reason the Badgers have a 50-50 chance of winning this one is the fact that Florida State isn’t a dominating ACC team.  They rely on one big scorer, and they win games by one to six points.  The winner of this game will be going home after the next one, and we’ll go with the Badgers to win a close one.

 

Prediction: Wisconsin 68 Florida State 66

 

#4 Xavier (8) vs. #13 Portland State (1) [Xavier has a schedule 10 points per game stronger]: Xavier would have qualified among the big dozen if they had a positive turnover margin.  The Musketeers don’t have the tools to advance to the Elite 8 and will only crack the Sweet 16 due to a weak second round opponent.  This Portland State team is nowhere near as talented as last year’s team.  That team had a chance to compete, while this years Vikings will know they are done by halftime of this game.

 

Prediction: Xavier 79 Portland State 62

 

#6 U C L A (14) vs. #11 Virginia Commonwealth (3) [UCLA has a schedule 3 points per game stronger]: VCU is one of those pesky teams that can throw an opponent off its game.  Coach Anthony Grant may be on his way to a big time job after this game.  UCLA will be able to sneak up on opponents in this tournament.  The Bruins didn’t win the Pac-10 title this year, but they have the talent to still be playing in April.  After a beginning that could be ugly, look for the boys from Westwood to get their balance and cruise to a double digit win.

 

Prediction: UCLA 75 VCU 65

 

#3 Villanova (9) vs. #14 American (2) [Villanova has a schedule 10 points per game stronger]: Villanova just barely missed out on being included in the top 12.  The Wildcats are not far behind Louisville, Connecticut, and Pittsburgh in the Big East.  VU has no weaknesses, but they are not as strong across the board as Louisville.  American won both the Patriot League regular season and tournament titles.  This is their second consecutive trip to the tournament, and they enter riding a 13-game winning streak.  They are better than average in every important aspect, but the Eagles’ strength of schedule is not strong enough for that to matter.  They played three good teams this year and lost to all by an average of 23 points.

 

Prediction: Villanova 74 American 55

 

#7 Texas (3) vs. #10 Minnesota (1) [Schedule strengths are equal]: Neither of these teams is going to advance past the opening weekend.  Texas is above average but not great in every aspect.  There are a dozen NIT teams that could beat the Longhorns.  Minnesota isn’t much better.  The Gophers pick up more steals, but they don’t capitalize on them with quick scoring bursts.  We’ll take Texas in a close game, but the Longhorns will not advance farther than one round.

 

Prediction: Texas 72 Minnesota 66

 

#2 Duke (14) vs. #15 Binghamton (-1) [Duke has a schedule 14 points per game stronger]: This won’t be like Duke’s first round game in 2008, when they had to sweat out a last second shot attempt by tiny Belmont.  Binghamton has little inside game, and that’s what it will take to beat Duke.  The Blue Devils will wear down the Bearcats and pull away to a lopsided victory.  They could lead by 35 to 40 points before emptying the bench.

 

Prediction: Duke 91 Binghamton 63

 

South Region

 

#1 North Carolina (17) vs. #16 Radford (3) [North Carolina has a schedule 10 points per game stronger]: Radford can score a lot of points.  They don’t have much depth, and we can see them keeping this game close maybe until midway through the first half.  After that, we look for the Tar Heels to go on a big run and put the game away before halftime.  Don’t be alarmed if UNC doesn’t win by 30 or more points.  Remember, they barely beat James Madison in the opening round one year when they advanced to the title game.

 

Prediction: North Carolina 94 Radford 77

 

#8 L S U (14) vs. #9 Butler (7) [LSU has a schedule 1 point per game stronger]: As 8-9 games are supposed to go, this game should be close with numerous lead changes.  Earlier in the year, Butler won at Xavier, while LSU lost at home to Xavier.  The Tigers know they are facing a team that could easily beat them.  They just barely missed qualifying for a spot on the 12 best teams.  Butler was better last year, but the Bulldogs are no pushover.  LSU will be extended to the end, and the Tigers will be fortunate to escape with a victory.

 

Prediction: LSU 73 Butler 69

 

#5 Illinois (4) vs. #12 Western Kentucky (2) [Illinois has a schedule 6 points per game stronger]: This Western Kentucky team is about 10 points weaker than last season’s Sweet 16 team.  However, the Hilltoppers couldn’t have asked for a better #5 seed to face in the first game.  This one has the look of another 12-seed upset, but we will select the Illini to hold off a tough rally.

 

Prediction: Illinois 61 Western Kentucky 58

 

#4 Gonzaga (19) vs. #13 Akron (3) [Gonzaga has a schedule 4 points per game stronger]: If Gonzaga were in the Pac-10 and had the identical stats they have this year, we would place them in the Final Four.  This is probably a better team than the Adam Morrison team a few years back.  The ‘Zags finished the season marching through the opposition like Sherman marched through Georgia.  In their final seven games, Gonzaga won all seven by an average score of 84-56!  Akron isn’t a bad team.  The MAC conference tournament champs might be favored in a first round game in other years, but they are going up against the North Carolina of the mid-majors.  Better luck next time Zips.

 

Prediction: Gonzaga 80 Akron 67

 

#6 Arizona State (4) vs. #11 Temple (0) [Schedule strengths are equal]: Arizona State lost four of its final seven games, while Temple won 10 of its last 12 including the Atlantic 10 Tournament title.  Even though the Sun Devils own a better criteria score, we believe Temple should be a slight favorite in this game.  Temple should control the boards in this game, and we expect a game with many missed shots.  Offensive rebounding should decide this one.

 

Prediction: Temple 64 Arizona State 58

 

#3 Syracuse (4) vs. #14 Stephen F. Austin (8) [Syracuse has a schedule 12 points per game stronger]: Be warned! This game could be a nail-biter.  Syracuse will not be fully recovered from the Big East Tournament.  They may never fully recover the rest of this season.  SFA is not a pushover, as judged by their criteria score.  Their strength of schedule does not merit making them an upset favorite.  They could keep this one close.  However, being their first tourney appearance, the players will be tight at the beginning of the game.  Syracuse may not bring their A-game, but it will be enough to win.  Don’t expect the Orangemen to score 80 points in this game, but then again, don’t expect the Lumberjacks to get many second-chance scoring opportunities. 

 

Prediction: Syracuse 69 Stephen F. Austin 59

 

#7 Clemson (9) vs. #10 Michigan (-4) [Michigan has a schedule 3 points per game stronger]: John Beilein’s West Virginia team is the only Elite 8 team to fall through the PiRate cracks in recent years.  This Michigan team plays much like that one, but the Wolverines are not yet as good.  Michigan tries to limit possessions and win by hitting a lot more three-pointers than they give up.  It is a good gimmick when you don’t have superior talent.  We just don’t see it working in the Big Dance.  Their criteria score is -4, which is the worst of the 63 teams that have a positive R+T rating.  Clemson was a better team in 2008, and that Tiger team fell to Villanova in the first round.  We expect the Tigers to get over the hump and win their opening round game this year.

 

Prediction: Clemson 77 Michigan 66

 

#2 Oklahoma (9) vs. #15 Morgan State (4) [Oklahoma has a schedule 13 points per game stronger]: Oklahoma would have qualified for a spot in the top 12 if they had a positive turnover margin.  When they face a team that forced turnovers, the Sooners are going to have a rough time.  Missouri and Oklahoma State beat the Sooners in the last two weeks, and both of those teams are ball-hawking squads.  Morgan State is not capable of forcing Oklahoma into a bevy of turnovers, so OU is safe in the opening round.  Sooner fans should root like crazy for Michigan to beat Clemson, because the Tigers are a lot like Missouri and Oklahoma State.

 

Prediction: Oklahoma 79 Morgan State 65

 

Midwest Region

 

#1 Louisville (10) vs. #16 Morehead State (1) [Louisville has a schedule 10 points per game stronger]: These two teams met in December with UL winning by 38 points.  The Eagles are much better than they were three months ago, but not 38 points better.  Louisville will get a light workout in this game, and that will keep them fresh for round two.

 

Prediction: Louisville 76 Morehead State 49

 

#8 Ohio State (DNQ) vs. #9 Siena (5) [Ohio State has a schedule 3 points per game stronger]: Here is what looks like a mild upset in the making.  Ohio State is one of two teams that fail to qualify due to a negative R+T rating.  What that means is the Buckeyes give up more scoring opportunities than they get.  Think of a major league baseball team that wins 90 games in the regular season to qualify for the playoffs but gives up one more hit per game than themselves while hitting an average amount of home runs.  That team won’t go far in the playoffs.  Siena won an opening round game in last year’s tournament, and this Saints’ team is better this year than last year.  Siena stands a 55-60% chance of winning this game.

 

Prediction: Siena 74 Ohio State 70

 

#5 Utah (3) vs. #12 Arizona (-2) [Utah has a schedule 1 point per game stronger]: The winner of this game won’t be advancing much further.  Arizona really shouldn’t be here.  Almost every major conference team and more than half of the mid-major teams in the NIT could beat Arizona.  Utah won 11 of their final 13 games, and the Utes should make it 12 of 14.  However, don’t expect any deep runs like in the Rick Majerus or Jack Gardner days.

 

Prediction: Utah 68 Arizona 63

 

#4 Wake Forest (12) vs. #13 Cleveland State (7) [Wake Forest has a schedule 3 points per game stronger]: Cleveland State deserves their seeding.  The Vikings defeated Butler and won at Syracuse during the season and played competitive games at Washington and at West Virginia.  Wake Forest qualifies as one of the super 12 teams, and they will have a tougher time with CSU in the opening round than they will have with either Utah or Arizona in round two.

 

Prediction: Wake Forest 69 Cleveland State 62

 

#6 West Virginia (16) vs. #11 Dayton (5) [West Virginia has a schedule 6 points per game stronger]: West Virginia is the top dark horse in our criteria.  We believe they can advance to Detroit.  Dayton is a solid team and can hold their own on the glass against the Mountaineers.  We believe the game will be decided by turnovers.  WVU will force three to five more and capitalize on that differential with five to eight points.  We will add a little more to the difference by believing Dayton will put West Virginia at the line several times in the closing minutes and fail to score quickly at their end.

 

Prediction: West Virginia 74 Dayton 65

 

#3 Kansas (10) vs. #14 North Dakota State (10) [Kansas has a schedule 13 points per game stronger]: North Dakota State is making an appearance in the Big Dance in their first year they are qualified.  Their criteria score is a little misleading, as they have a rather weak strength of schedule.  The Bison may give the Jayhawks a battle through a couple of TV timeouts, but KU will go to the locker at the half up by at least eight and pull away in the second half.

 

Prediction: Kansas 81 North Dakota State 59

 

#7 Boston College (-2) vs. #10 Southern California (2) [Southern Cal has a schedule 3 points per game stronger]: This should be an interesting and entertaining game.  The winner should be out of the tournament one round later.  Trying to pick a winner in this game is a pure crap shoot.  Boston College beat North Carolina and lost to Harvard.  USC started 10-3, then lost 9 of 15, and then won five in a row, including three consecutive Pac-10 Tournament victories over NCAA Tournament teams.

 

Prediction: Southern Cal 73 Boston College 70

 

#2 Michigan State (7) vs. #15 Robert Morris (2) [Michigan State has a schedule 13 points per game stronger]: The Spartans should make it to the Sweet 16, but we just don’t see any Big 10 team winning an Elite 8 game this year.  Robert Morris must rely on one star in Jeremy Chappell.  The Colonials don’t rebound well, and MSU will play volleyball on the offensive glass. 

 

Prediction: Michigan State 76 Robert Morris 54

 

West Regional

 

#1 Connecticut (12) vs. #16 Chattanooga (-1) [Connecticut has a schedule 8 points per game stronger]: We pity the poor Mocs.  They are going to be the victims of one of the two most lopsided opening round game.  UConn will dominate this game from start to finish.  Chattanooga will be lucky to lead this one 2-0 at the start, because it could easily be a game where the Huskies hold the Mocs scoreless to the first TV timeout and lead by double digits by the time Chattanooga scores.

 

Prediction: Connecticut 98 Chattanooga 63

 

#8 B Y U (13) vs. #9 Texas A&M (2) [Texas A&M has a schedule 1 point per game stronger]: This looks like another excellent tossup game, but our criteria show it to be a one-sided affair.  BYU would belong in the top 12 if they had played a stronger schedule.  The Cougars do everything well; they outscore their opposition by 12.7 points per game.  They shoot 8.5% better than their opponents.  They control the boards by more than 4 per game and force 2.5 more turnovers per game than they commit.  The Cougars just haven’t beaten a big time team.  Texas A&M owns victories over four major teams in the Dance.  That makes it the tossup game it is supposed to be.

 

Prediction: BYU 74 Texas A&M 69

 

#5 Purdue (6) vs. #12 Northern Iowa (-1) [Purdue has a schedule 4 points per game stronger]: The Boilermakers split their final 10 regular season games before finding their stride in the Big 10 Tournament.  Northern Iowa is in the Dance because they can edge Illinois State every time they face off.  Illinois State won’t be on the schedule until next season, so NIU can begin looking forward to next season after this game.  Don’t expect Purdue to still be around next week.  This is going to prove to be another weak year for the Big 10.

 

Prediction: Purdue 71 Northern Iowa 60

 

#4 Washington (9) vs. #13 Mississippi State (DNQ) [Washington has a schedule 2 points per game stronger]: The Pac-10 regular season champions take on the surprise winner of the SEC Tournament.  MSU is one of two teams that do not qualify due to a negative R+T number.  It’s hard to imagine that with Jarvis Varnado in the lineup, the Bulldogs still have a slight negative rebounding margin.  They also have a negative turnover margin and didn’t play that tough of a schedule.  Washington won’t have to travel far from Seattle to Portland, and the Huskies should win this one by more points than most people expect.

 

Prediction: Washington 81 Mississippi State 66

 

#6 Marquette (9) vs. #11 Utah State (10) [Marquette has a schedule 5 points per game stronger]: Marquette would definitely be included in the top 12 if Dominic James were not out for the season.  Prior to his foot fracture, MU was a Top 10 team capable of making a run to the Final Four.  Without him, they really should be a double digit seed.  Utah State is one of the handful of mid-majors capable of making a run to the Sweet 16.  The Aggies will have trouble against an aggressive, pressing team, but Marquette isn’t one of those teams.  This game is actually a tossup.  With no partiality to an in-state team, we’re going with Marquette to survive a toughie.

 

Prediction: Marquette 70 Utah State 65

 

#3 Missouri (14) vs. #14 Cornell (5) [Missouri has a schedule 11 points per game stronger]: Missouri has the talent to make a deep run in this tournament.  Any team that has trouble facing pressure defense is going to find itself in a heap of trouble.  The Tigers are the best pressing team in the Big Dance and the only team averaging double figure steals per game.  If Mizzou gets 12 steals in a game, they are going to score 20 or more points off those steals.  That is a mighty stat for an opponent to overcome.  Cornell is not as good this year as they were last year when they won the Ivy League with ease.  This team has no signature wins, and they lost by double digits to all three NCAA Tournament teams on their schedule.

 

Prediction: Missouri 82 Cornell 58

 

#7 California (1) vs. #10 Maryland (1) [Maryland has a schedule 2 points per game stronger]:  On paper, this game looks like an exciting game.  We consider it the most mediocre game of the opening round.  One of these teams will advance to the Round of 32 and become fodder for Memphis.  Cal will win the battle on the boards, but Maryland will not beat themselves with unforced errors.  The Terps beat North Carolina and Wake Forest in the last month, while Cal has been a sub-.500 team since mid-January.

 

Prediction: Maryland 71 California 67

 

#2 Memphis (19) vs. #15 Cal State Northridge (-1) [Memphis has a schedule 7 points per game stronger]: Not only is Memphis coming into the tournament playing its best ball of the season, the Tigers enter the Dance with a chip on their shoulders.  They deserved a number one seed, and now they will take it out on their next opponent or maybe next six.  The Matadors lost to Cal State Bakersfield as well as some other teams with an RPI well down the list.  Memphis has won 25 games in a row, and the Tigers are the real number one team in our book.  At the point when Coach Cal removes his top eight players from the game, the Tigers may have yielded less than a point per minute in this game.

 

Prediction: Memphis 83 Cal State Northridge 47

 

Coming Friday, a look at Saturday’s games.  Sunday’s game previews will run Saturday.

December 9, 2008

PiRate Ratings For College Football–Week of: December 9, 2008

NCAA Regular Season Summation

 

Congratulations go to Oklahoma and Florida, and my condolences go to Texas, Southern Cal, and Penn State, and Alabama.  Some biased poll voters, a couple of computer geeks, and a couple of sports elitists have determined that the Sooners and Gators are a couple hundredths of a percentage point better than the rest of the pack and deserve to play for the national title.

 

Florida lost their one game at home.  Oklahoma lost their one game on a neutral field to one of the other teams up for consideration.  Alabama’s loss on a neutral field to Florida is the exact same situation.  Texas lost on the road to an undefeated Texas Tech team on the final play of the game.  Southern Cal lost on the road at Oregon State with one late play figuring greatly in the outcome.  Penn State lost on the road at Iowa on the final play of the game.  So, the computers can tell us that Florida and Oklahoma are the two most deserving? 

 

Here are the final regular season PiRate Top 25 and the PiRate Ratings by conference:

 

NCAA Top 25 For 2-Dec-2008

Rank

Team

PiRate

Won

Lost

1

Florida 

140

12

1

2

Oklahoma

139

12

1

3

Southern Cal

131

11

1

4

Texas

128

11

1

5

Ohio St.

127

10

2

6

Alabama

125

12

1

7

Penn St.

125

11

1

8

Ole Miss

121

8

4

9

Texas Tech

120

11

1

10

Boise State

120

12

0

11

T C U

120

10

2

12

Oregon

120

9

3

13

Utah

118

12

0

14

Iowa

117

8

4

15

Rutgers

117

7

5

16

California

116

8

4

17

Georgia 

115

9

3

18

Oklahoma St.

114

9

3

19

Arizona

114

7

5

20

Clemson

113

7

5

21

Oregon State

113

8

4

22

Missouri

113

9

4

23

Florida State

112

8

4

24

Pittsburgh

112

9

3

25

Cincinnati

110

11

2

     

 

 

Note: Ratings rounded to nearest whole number

even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

   
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Clemson

4-4

7-5

113

68

45

Florida State

5-3

8-4

112

70

42

North Carolina State

4-4

6-6

106

70

36

Boston College

5-3*

9-4

104

63

41

Wake Forest

4-4

7-5

104

56

48

Maryland

4-4

7-5

101

62

39

 

 

 

 

   
Coastal Division

 

 

 

   
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Virginia Tech

5-3*+

9-4

109

67

42

Georgia Tech

5-3

9-3

109

68

41

North Carolina

4-4

8-4

105

66

39

Miami

4-4

7-5

102

60

42

Virginia 

3-5

5-7

100

58

42

Duke

1-7

4-8

93

60

33

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

   
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Rutgers

5-2

7-5

117

70

47

Pittsburgh

5-2

9-3

112

66

46

Cincinnati

6-1

11-2

110

64

46

West Virginia

5-2

8-4

110

65

45

South Florida

2-5

7-5

106

68

38

Connecticut

3-4

7-5

102

64

38

Louisville

1-6

5-7

91

57

34

Syracuse

1-6

3-9

89

56

33

 

Big Ten

           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Ohio State

7-1

10-2

127

71

56

Penn State

7-1

11-1

125

76

49

Iowa

5-3

8-4

117

72

45

Wisconsin

3-5

7-5

107

71

36

Northwestern

5-3

9-3

105

64

41

Michigan State

6-2

9-3

104

64

40

Purdue

2-6

4-8

103

67

36

Illinois

3-5

5-7

102

65

37

Michigan

2-6

3-9

96

57

39

Minnesota

3-5

7-5

92

58

34

Indiana

1-7

3-9

79

54

25

 

Big 12

North Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Missouri

5-3*

9-4

113

74

39

Kansas

4-4

7-5

109

67

42

Nebraska

5-3

8-4

108

70

38

Colorado

2-6

5-7

95

57

38

Kansas State

2-6

5-7

92

67

25

Iowa State

0-8

2-10

86

57

29

South Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Oklahoma

7-1+

12-1

139

97

42

Texas

7-1

11-1

128

82

46

Texas Tech

7-1

11-1

120

85

35

Oklahoma State

5-3

9-3

114

71

43

Baylor

2-6

4-8

106

68

38

Texas A&M

2-6

4-8

90

56

34

 

Conference USA

East Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

East Carolina

6-2+

9-4

99

62

37

Southern Miss.

4-4

6-6

97

64

33

Memphis

4-4

6-6

92

61

31

Marshall

3-5

4-8

89

58

31

Central Florida

3-5

4-8

88

46

42

U A B

3-5

4-8

84

51

33

West Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Tulsa

7-1*

10-3

103

72

31

Rice

7-1

9-3

97

66

31

Houston

6-2

7-5

97

67

30

U T E P

4-4

5-7

87

59

28

S M U

0-8

1-11

78

57

21

Tulane

1-7

2-10

69

50

19

 

Independents

           
Team

 

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Navy  

8-4

104

61

43

Notre Dame  

6-6

98

58

40

Army  

3-9

82

46

36

 

Mid American Conference

East Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Bowling Green

4-4

6-6

103

68

35

Buffalo

5-3+

8-5

101

68

33

Temple

4-4

5-7

96

57

39

Ohio U

3-5

4-8

91

51

40

Kent State

3-5

4-8

89

58

31

Akron

3-5

5-7

89

60

29

Miami (O)

1-7

2-10

81

54

27

           
West Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Ball State

8-0

12-1

109

73

36

Western Michigan

6-2

9-3

100

63

37

Northern Illinois

5-3

6-6

98

59

39

Central Michigan

6-2

8-4

97

68

29

Eastern Michigan

2-6

3-9

88

59

29

Toledo

2-6

3-9

85

55

30

 

Mountain West Conference

           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

T C U

7-1

10-2

120

68

52

Utah

8-0

12-0

118

70

48

Brigham Young

6-2

10-2

106

67

39

Air Force

5-3

8-4

95

58

37

Colorado State

4-4

6-6

93

60

33

New Mexico

2-6

4-8

93

56

37

UNLV

2-6

5-7

85

56

29

Wyoming

1-7

4-8

85

51

34

San Diego State

1-7

2-10

76

49

27

 

Pac-10 Conference

           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Southern Cal

7-1

11-1

131

72

59

Oregon

7-2

9-3

120

77

43

California

6-3

8-4

116

73

43

Arizona

5-4

7-5

114

75

39

Oregon State

7-2

8-4

113

74

39

Stanford

4-5

5-7

106

64

42

Arizona State

4-5

5-7

103

63

40

U C L A

3-6

4-8

100

57

43

Washington

0-9

0-12

81

54

27

Washington State

1-8

2-11

74

49

25

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Florida 

7-1+

12-1

140

86

54

Georgia 

6-2

9-3

115

73

42

South Carolina

4-4

7-5

108

63

45

Tennessee

3-5

5-7

107

62

45

Kentucky

2-6

6-6

102

62

40

Vanderbilt

4-4

6-6

100

55

45

West Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Alabama

8-0

12-1

125

69

56

Ole Miss

5-3

8-4

121

74

47

L S U

3-5

7-5

106

68

38

Arkansas

2-6

5-7

102

68

34

Auburn

2-6

5-7

102

56

46

Mississippi State

2-6

4-8

97

55

42

 

Sunbelt Conference

           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Troy

6-1

8-4

105

69

36

Florida Atlantic

4-3

6-6

90

61

29

Middle Tennessee

3-4

5-7

90

58

32

Arkansas State

4-3

6-6

89

59

30

Florida International

3-4

5-7

89

58

31

Louisiana-Lafayette

5-2

6-6

88

66

22

Louisiana-Monroe

3-4

4-8

87

56

31

* Western Kentucky

0-0

2-10

79

49

30

North Texas

0-7

1-11

70

55

15

           
* Western Kentucky will become eligible in 2009      
Their games will not count in the SBC Standings in 2008    

 

Western Athletic Conference

           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Boise State

8-0

12-0

120

74

46

Nevada

5-3

7-5

102

73

29

Louisiana Tech

5-3

7-5

94

56

38

Utah State

3-5

3-9

93

57

36

Hawaii

5-3

7-6

93

55

38

Fresno State

4-4

7-5

88

61

27

San Jose State

4-4

6-6

85

53

32

New Mexico State

1-7

3-9

74

48

26

Idaho

1-7

2-10

73

57

16

 

Here is the bowl schedule

 

Date

Time EST

Bowl

City

Team

Team

D. 20

11:00

Eagle Bank

Washington DC

Wake Forest

Navy

D. 20

2:30

New Mexico

Albuquerque

Colorado State

Fresno State

D. 20

4:30

St. Petersburg

St. Petersburg

South Florida

Memphis

D. 20

8:00

Las Vegas

Las Vegas

B Y U

Arizona

D. 21

8:15

New Orleans

New Orleans

Troy

Southern Miss.

D. 23

8:00

Poinsettia

San Diego

Boise State

T C U

D. 24

8:00

Hawaii

Honolulu

Hawaii

Notre Dame

D. 26

8:00

Motor City

Detroit

Central Michigan

Florida Atlantic

D. 27

1:00

Meineke Car Care

Charlotte

North Carolina

West Virginia

D. 27

4:30

Champs Sports

Orlando

Florida State

Wisconsin

D. 27

8:00

Emerald

San Francisco

California

Miami (Fl.)

D. 28

8:15

Independence

Shrevport

Louisiana Tech

Northern Illinois

D. 29

3:00

PapaJohns

Birmingham

N. C. State

Rutgers

D. 29

8:00

Alamo

San Antonio

Northwestern

Missouri

D. 30

4:30

Humanitarian

Boise

Nevada

Maryland

D. 30

8:00

Texas

Houston

Western Michigan

Rice

D. 30

8:00

Holiday

San Diego

Oregon 

Oklahoma State

D. 31

12:00

Armed Forces

Ft. Worth

Air Force

Houston

D. 31

2:00

Sun

El Paso

Oregon State

Pittsburgh

D. 31

3:30

Music City

Nashville

Vanderbilt

Boston College

D. 31

5:30

Insight

Tempe

Kansas

Minnesota

D. 31

7:30

Chick-fil-a

Atlanta

Georgia Tech

L S U

J. 1

11:00

Outback

Tampa

Iowa

South Carolina

J. 1

1:00

Capital One

Orlando

Georgia 

Michigan State

J. 1

1:00

Gator

Jacksonville

Clemson

Nebraska

J. 1

4:30

Rose

Pasadena

Southern Cal

Penn State

J. 1

8:30

Orange

Miami

Virginia Tech

Cincinnati

J. 2

2:00

Cotton

Dallas

Texas Tech

Ole Miss

J. 2

5:00

Liberty

Memphis

East Carolina

Kentucky

J. 2

8:00

Sugar

New Orleans

Alabama

Utah

J. 3

12:00

International

Toronto

Connecticut

Buffalo

J. 5

8:00

Fiesta

Glendale

Texas

Ohio State

J. 6

8:00

G M A C

Mobile

Tulsa

Ball State

J. 8

8:00

Nat’l Championship

Miami

Florida 

Oklahoma

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