PiRate Ratings Bracketology For March 11, 2020

Date	3/11/2020
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Kansas	Gonzaga	Dayton	Baylor
2	San Diego St.	Florida St.	Villanova	Creighton
3	Duke	Kentucky	Seton Hall	Michigan St.
4	Maryland	Louisville	Oregon	Wisconsin
5	Ohio St.	Auburn	Butler	BYU
6	West Virginia	Iowa	Penn St.	Virginia
7	Illinois	Colorado	Michigan	Arizona
8	Houston	Providence	LSU	Saint Mary’s
9	USC	Marquette	Oklahoma	Rutgers
10	Arizona St.	Florida	Indiana	Utah St.
11	E. Tennessee St.	Stanford	Xavier	Wichita St.	Texas Tech
12	Yale	Liberty	S. F. Austin	Richmond	UCLA
13	Vermont	Akron	North Texas	New Mexico St.
14	Bradley	Belmont	Hofstra	Colgate
15	UC-Irvine	N. Dakota St.	Little Rock	E. Washington
16	N. Kentucky	Winthrop	Siena	Prairie View	Robert Morris	N. C.  A&T

 

Last Four Byes:  Florida, Indiana, Stanford, and Xavier

Last Four IN: Wichita St., Texas Tech, Richmond, and UCLA

First Four OUT: North Carolina St., Cincinnati, Texas, and Mississippi St.

Next Four Out: Memphis, Northern Iowa, Purdue, and Saint Louis

 

Note:  Starting with today’s Bracketology and continuing for our final two Bracketology predictions (Friday and Sunday), our seed lines now reflect our beliefs that the NCAA Selection Committee will have some political beliefs that alter seed lines.  For instance, we moved Virginia up one seed strictly because they are the defending champions, and we believe some members on the Selection Committee will lobby on their behalf to be moved higher up.  

We are closely monitoring Dayton in the Atlantic 10 Conference.  Any blip that comes DU’s way might move the Flyers down to the 2-seed line if an elite team like Duke, Michigan St., or Kentucky romps through their conference tournament.

 

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For March 9, 2020

Date	3/9/2020
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Kansas	Gonzaga	Dayton	Baylor
2	San Diego St.	Florida St.	Villanova	Creighton
3	Duke	Kentucky	Seton Hall	Maryland
4	Michigan St.	Louisville	Oregon	Wisconsin
5	Ohio St.	Auburn	Butler	BYU
6	West Virginia	Iowa	Penn St.	Illinois
7	Virginia	Colorado	Michigan	Arizona
8	Houston	Providence	LSU	Florida
9	Saint Mary’s	USC	Marquette	Oklahoma
10	Arizona St.	Rutgers	Texas Tech	UTAH ST.
11	East Tennessee St.	Indiana	Stanford	Xavier	Cincinnati
12	Yale	Stephen F. Austin	LIBERTY	Richmond	Wichita St.
13	Vermont	Akron	North Texas	New Mexico St.
14	BRADLEY	BELMONT	Hofstra	Colgate
15	UC-Irvine	Wright St.	Little Rock	E.  Washington
16	North Dakota St.	WINTHROP	Siena	Prairie View	St. Francis (PA)	N. Carolina A&T

Teams in all CAPS have earned automatic bids

 

The Bubble

 

Last Four BYES: Rutgers, Texas Tech, Indiana, and Stanford

Last Four IN: Xavier, Cincinnati, Richmond, and Wichita St.

 

First Four OUT: UCLA, Texas, North Carolina St., and Mississippi St.

Next Four OUT: Rhode Island, Northern Iowa, Arkansas, and Memphis

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For March 6, 2020

Date	3/6/2020
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Kansas	Gonzaga	Baylor	San Diego St.
2	Dayton	Florida St.	Villanova	Seton Hall
3	Duke	Maryland	Louisville	Michigan St.
4	Kentucky	Creighton	Oregon	Ohio St.
5	Penn St.	Auburn	Iowa	Butler
6	Wisconsin	BYU	Colorado	Michigan
7	West Virginia	Arizona	Illinois	Marquette
8	Houston	Virginia	Saint Mary’s	LSU
9	USC	Florida	Arizona St.	Providence
10	Texas Tech	Indiana	Oklahoma	Xavier
11	Rutgers	Stanford	E. Tennessee St.	Texas	UCLA
12	Yale	S. F. Austin	Liberty	Cincinnati	Utah St.
13	Vermont	Akron	North Texas	Loyola (Chi.)
14	New Mexico St.	Hofstra	Belmont	Colgate
15	Little Rock	Wright St.	UC-Irvine	S. Dakota St.
16	Montana	Radford	Prairie View	Siena	St. Francis (PA)	UNC Central

The Bubble

 

Last 4 IN: Texas, UCLA, Cincinnati, Utah St.

First 4 Out: North Carolina St., Wichita St., Richmond, Arkansas

Next 4 Out: Rhode Island, Memphis, Purdue, Saint Louis

 

Needing a miracle but probably headed to the NIT: Northern Iowa, which lost by 21 to Drake in the Missouri Valley Conference Quarterfinal Round today.

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For March 1, 2020

Sunday’s Games

 

Home	Visitor	Spread
Charlotte	Florida Intl.	3.7
Fairfield	Rider	-2.0
Georgetown	Xavier	1.9
Houston	Cincinnati	6.9
Illinois	Indiana	4.6
Louisville	Virginia Tech	13.4
Monmouth	Manhattan	5.8
Nebraska	Northwestern	2.8
North Texas	Western Kentucky	5.5
Northeastern	Towson	4.2
Ohio St.	Michigan	4.4
Old Dominion	Florida Atlantic	4.8
Quinnipiac	Marist	5.1
Rhode Island	Saint Louis	7.0
Rice	Middle Tennessee	7.2
SMU	Wichita St.	-0.9
St. John’s	Creighton	-4.0
Stanford	Colorado	1.3
Temple	South Florida	5.1
UTEP	Southern Miss	6.6
UTSA	UAB	2.2
Wisconsin	Minnesota	4.4

 

Sunday’s Key TV Games

 

Time (EST)	Network	Home	Visitor
1:00 PM	ESPN	Houston	Cincinnati
2:00 PM	CBS	Georgetown	Xavier
2:00 PM	BTN	Illinois	Indiana
2:00 PM	ESPNU	Rhode Island	Saint Louis
4:00 PM	CBS	Ohio St.	Michigan
4:00 PM	ESPNU	SMU	Wichita St.
6:00 PM	ESPNU	Stanford	Colorado
6:30 PM	BTN	Wisconsin	Minnesota

 

Conference Tournaments Start Tuesday Night

Coming Tuesday, we begin our daily conference tournament coverage all the way to Selection Sunday. 

The Atlantic Sun, Big South, Horizon, and Patriot Leagues will get started on Tuesday. 

On Wednesday, the Mountain West, Northeast, and Ohio Valley Conferences commence post-season play. 

On Thursday, the Missouri Valley (Arch Madness) and The West Coast Conference start tournament play.

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For February 28, 2020

Date	2/28/2020
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Kansas	Gonzaga	Baylor	San Diego St.
2	Dayton	Maryland	Florida St.	Duke
3	Creighton	Villanova	Seton Hall	Kentucky
4	Oregon	Louisville	Penn St.	Auburn
5	Michigan St.	Ohio St.	Colorado	Iowa
6	Michigan	West Virginia	Butler	BYU
7	Wisconsin	Arizona	Marquette	Illinois
8	LSU	Houston	Arizona St.	Florida
9	Texas Tech	Saint Mary’s	Indiana	Virginia
10	Xavier	Utah St.	Oklahoma	USC
11	Rhode Island	Wichita St.	East Tennessee St.	Northern Iowa
12	Liberty	Stephen F. Austin	Rutgers	Cincinnati	N. C. State	Providence
13	Yale	Vermont	North Texas	New Mexico St.
14	Bowling Green	Hofstra	Colgate	South Dakota St.
15	Wright St.	UC-Irvine	Little Rock	Belmont
16	Montana	Radford	St. Francis (PA)	Prairie View	Siena	N. C. A&T

First Four Out

 

69	Richmond
70	UCLA
71	Stanford
72	Arkansas

 

Next Four Out

 

73	Mississippi St.
74	Memphis
75	South Carolina
76	Texas

 

 

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For February 24, 2020

Date	2/21/2020
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Kansas	Baylor	Gonzaga	San Diego St.
2	Dayton	Duke	Maryland	Florida St.
3	Creighton	Seton Hall	Louisville	Villanova
4	Kentucky	Oregon	Penn St.	West Virginia
5	Colorado	Auburn	Michigan St.	Butler
6	Iowa	Ohio St.	Michigan	Arizona
7	BYU	Marquette	Wisconsin	LSU
8	Houston	Illinois	Texas Tech	Arizona St.
9	Saint Mary’s	Florida	Virginia	Indiana
10	Rutgers	Xavier	Rhode Island	USC
11	Wichita St.	Utah St.	East Tennessee St.	Northern Iowa
12	Yale	Liberty	North Carolina St.	Oklahoma	Cincinnati	Providence
13	Stephen F. Austin	Vermont	North Texas	Akron
14	New Mexico St.	Colgate	Wright St.	Hofstra
15	Belmont	UC-Irvine	Little Rock	South Dakota St.
16	Radford	Montana	Saint Peter’s	Prairie View	St. Francis (PA)	N. C. A&T

Bubble Teams Outside The Field (in order)

 

69	Richmond
70	Stanford
71	Georgetown
72	Arkansas
73	Alabama
74	Purdue
75	Memphis
76	UCLA
77	Mississippi St.
78	Minnesota
79	UNC Greensboro
80	Furman

 

Teams on the Rise

Akron

Arizona St.

Belmont

BYU

Creighton

Dayton

East Tennessee St.

Hofstra

Kansas

Kentucky

Michigan

Montana

New Mexico St.

Prairie View

Radford

St. Francis (PA)

Saint Peter’s

South Dakota St.

Stephen F. Austin

UCLA

UNC Greensboro

Utah St.

Villanova

Virginia

Wisconsin

 

Teams on the Decline

Butler

Marquette

Oklahoma

Penn St.

Purdue

Rider

Rutgers

South Carolina

USC

West Virginia

Winthrop

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For February 19, 2020

Wednesday’s Games

 

Home	Visitor	Spread
Alabama	Texas A&M	13.1
American	Navy	4.9
Arkansas St.	UL Monroe	7.0
Bradley	Missouri St.	4.9
Cincinnati	Central Florida	11.2
Citadel	Chattanooga	-8.4
Colgate	Lehigh	15.3
DePaul	Villanova	-3.4
Drake	Valparaiso	2.4
Duquesne	George Washington	11.4
East Tennessee St.	Furman	4.6
Fresno St.	Air Force	6.2
Georgetown	Providence	4.8
Georgia	Auburn	-3.4
Houston	Tulsa	10.0
Houston Baptist	Abilene Christian	-10.7
Incarnate Word	McNeese	-7.3
La Salle	Fordham	7.6
Lafayette	Boston U	-0.3
Louisville	Syracuse	10.0
Loyola (Chi.)	Illinois St.	11.4
Loyola (MD)	Army	2.6
Memphis	East Carolina	15.8
Mercer	Samford	7.5
Minnesota	Indiana	4.9
Mississippi St.	South Carolina	5.5
North Carolina St.	Duke	-8.4
North Dakota	South Dakota St.	-4.1
Northwestern St.	Nicholls St.	-4.3
Richmond	George Mason	11.8
Rutgers	Michigan	1.2
Sam Houston St.	Lamar	8.8
San Jose St.	Boise St.	-11.5
Seton Hall	Butler	5.7
Siena	Iona	7.0
South Dakota	North Dakota St.	0.3
Stephen F. Austin	Central Arkansas	14.0
Texas	TCU	4.1
Texas Tech	Kansas St.	12.0
Tulane	SMU	-6.1
UC Irvine	Long Beach St.	15.7
UMKC	California Baptist	-0.2
UNC Greensboro	Wofford	10.1
Utah St.	Wyoming	21.1
Virginia	Boston College	11.6
Virginia Tech	Miami	4.9
Wake Forest	Georgia Tech	1.3
Washington St.	California	6.6
Western Carolina	VMI	9.5

 

Wednesday’s Key TV Games

 

Time (EST)	Network	Home	Visitor
6:30 PM	FS1	Seton Hall	Butler
7:00 PM	ESPN	Louisville	Syracuse
7:00 PM	BTN	Rutgers	Michigan
7:00 PM	ESPN+	East Tennessee St.	Furman
8:00 PM	ESPN3	South Dakota	North Dakota St.
8:30 PM	FS1	Georgetown	Providence
9:00 PM	ESPN	North Carolina St.	Duke
9:00 PM	ESPNU	Houston	Tulsa
9:00 PM	BTN	Minnesota	Indiana
9:00 PM	SECN	Mississippi St.	South Carolina

In Order To Perform A More Perfect Metric

 

If you follow this website on a semi-regular basis, you know that our R+T Rating has been the one unique metric used by us when predicting NCAA Tournament favorites.

For those of you that are new to this site, our R+T Rating was created two decades ago to estimate the extra scoring opportunities (by points) each team might be better than average in the NCAA Tournament.  We realized long ago that just like the “Money Ball” type of baseball strategies did not work well in the Major League Playoffs, the NCAA Tournament presented its own unique differences and required more than the Four Factors to determine winners when only the good to great teams remain.

The current formula for R+T consists of counting stats, but we have realized for some time that rate stats are much more accurate.  Using baseball as an example, a counting stat would be Johnny Horsehide hitting 43 home runs and driving in 118 runs.  These two stats might lead the Majors, but these stats may not reveal what we want them to reveal.  Gary Goodeye might hit just 34 home runs and drive in 95 runs, but Good Ole Gary might be a better home run hitter than Johnny.  How many times did Horsehide come to the plate?  What if Horsehide walked 34 times in 702 plate appearances while playing for a team that had three all-stars hitting in front of him, all of whom have on-base percentages of .400 or better?

What if Goodeye had 650 plate appearances playing on a team that was quite weak offensively?  Let’s say his teammates that batted in front of him had one-base percentages between .320 and .335.  Let’s say that Goodeye didn’t always get good pitches when he appeared in the batter’s box, and he walked 125 times.

Now, if we look at the number of home runs hit per at bat or plate appearances that did not end in a walk (or hit by pitch or sacrifice), we will see that Goodeye actually hit home runs at a slightly better rate than Horsehide.  As for runs batted in, that statistic is close to meaningless, because in order to drive runs in, runners must be on base.  So, the RBI stat is more reliant on the other players on the team.  It could be that Goodeye drove in runners better than Horsehide, because when we look at how many runners were on base and what base they were on, Goodeye might have had a better percentage at driving those runners in.

Back to basketball.  A team with a rebounding advantage of 43-37 has a +6 margin.  A team with a rebounding advantage of 35-30 has a +5 margin.  Using counting stats, the 43-37 team is one better than the 35-30 team.  But, the 35-30 team rebounded 53.85% of the missed shots, while the 43-37 team only rebounded 53.75% of the shots.  So, the 35-30 team is a little better than the 43-37 team on the surface.

However, it is harder to get offensive rebounds than it is to get defensive rebounds.  In fact, data throughout the calculated history of college basketball shows that an offensive rebound is worth better than 2 1/2 defensive rebounds.  The Four Factors breaks rebounding rate down into offensive and defensive rates.  

Let’s say that in a game,  Team A shot 25 of 60 for 41.7% while shooting 16-22 at the foul line for 72.7%.  Team B shot 28 of 58 for 48.3% while shooting 10-17 at the foul line for 58.8%.  Team A hit one more three point basket than Team B and one by a point.  

Now, let’s look at the rebounding for this game.  First, there were five dead ball rebounds, which we do not count as actual rebounds.  The statistical rules in basketball is that for every missed shot, there must be a rebound.  When a player is at the foul line for two shots, and he misses the first shot, there is not a real rebound.  The foul shooting team gets credited with a dead ball rebound.

To the contrary, team rebounds do count, because these are rebounds in which possession is determined.  When a missed shot ends up out of bounds before possession can be guaranteed, the team that gets possession out of bounds receives an offensive rebound.

In this game after removing the five dead ball rebounds, there were 73 rebounds to be had.  When Team A shot, there were 39 potential rebounds following misses, while when Team B shot, there were 34 potential rebounds following misses.

Looking at the stats, Team A finished with 13 offensive rebounds and 23 defensive rebounds for 36 total rebounds.  Team B finished with 11 offensive rebounds and 26 defensive rebounds for 37 total rebounds.

Team B had a counting rebounding margin of +1, while Team A had a margin of -1.  However, let’s now look at the percentage of offensive rebounds each team enjoyed.  Team A had 13 offensive rebounds out of 39 missed shots, which is 33.3% of the missed shots at their offensive end.  Team B had 11 offensive rebounds out of 34 missed shots for 32.4% of the missed shots at their offensive end. 

Looking at the rate stats, Team A may have retrieved fewer total rebounds than Team B, but they were actually the better rebounding team in this game by almost 1%.

The rate data is obviously more telling than counting data, but how can we determine a point value to substitute rate data for counting data in our R+T Rating, which in the past has picked a lot of surprise NCAA Tournament winners?

We’ve been back-testing values daily for two months.  We had to include a constant in our formulas to smooth out the results to make the numbers mean something.  Without the constant, the results were too far apart to mean something.  Tiny differences led to major spreads, and that did not tell us what we wanted.  

After about 150 to 175 different attempts, we believe (HOPE) that we have finally had a breakthrough.  The following formula will be explained after we reveal it:

((R*8)+(S*2+((5-Opp S)*2)+(T*4)))/2.75

 

This formula now refers to Rate Stats.  The “R” in the formula now stands for Rebounding Rate.  This is a combination of both offensive and defensive rebounding rate and it is a deviation from the norm and not just a percentage.  The norm in our experiment is 28.1%.  If a team has an offensive rebounding rate above this number, it is above average, and if it is below this number, it is below average.  Thus, the norm for defensive rebounding rate is the opposite of the above number, or 71.9%.  We then calculate our R part of the formula by taking each team’s offensive rate minus 28.1 plus their defensive rate minus 71.9 and then add the two results and divide by 2.

Example: Today, Houston has an offensive rebounding rate of 38.5%, which is 10.4% higher than average (we experimented with using the actual percentage better which would have been 37% better than average, but we never arrived at a usable final number doing so.)  Houston’s defensive rebounding rate is 74.5%, which is 2.6% better than average. 

We then take both numbers (+10.4 & +2.6), sum the numbers, and divide by 2 to get +6.5.  That would be the R number for Houston in the new formula.

Let’s now update our formula:

((6.5*8)+(S*2+((5-Opp S)*2)+(T*4)))/2.75

 

The rest of this formula uses the same system as above.  The norm for steals (S) is 9.2% for both offense and defense.

Houston has a 7.4% steal rate, which is 1.8% below average.  Houston’s opponents have a 7.5% steal rate against them, which is 1.7% above average for Houston.  Once again, we update the formula.

 

((6.5*8)+(-1.8*2+((5- [-1.7])*2)+(T*4)))/2.75

 

Now, we need Turnover rates, both offensive and defensive.  The norm for turnover rate is 16.9%.  Obviously, the lower the offensive turnover rate is, the better, and the higher the defensive turnover rate is, the better.  Houston’s offensive turnover rate is 14.9%, which is 2.0% better than average.  The Cougars’ defensive turnover rate is 15.8%, which is 1.1% below average.  We sum the two numbers and divide by 2:  2.0 + (-1.1) = 0.9 and divided by 2 = 0.45.  The 0.45 is now our T in the equation and we are ready to solve the equation.  The 2.75 by the way is our constant that when used brings the results into what we hope is a usable formula.

 

((6.5*8)+(-1.8*2+((5- [-1.7])*2)+(.45*4)))/2.75

 

We will simplify the formula in case you have math anxiety like one of our PiRate lasses.

 

((52)+(-3.6+(6.7*2)+(1.8)))/2.75

 

(52+9.8+1.8)/2.75

 

63.6/2.75 = 23.13

 

We will have some growing pains with this new formula, and there’s a good chance that the numbers will be tweaked in the future, but this is the Rate Version of the R+T Rating that we will use in the NCAA Tournament.  Because it is an experiment, we will also use the original R+T formula when we issue our Bracketnomics 2020 edition.

 

Here are the two formulas together for you to compare.

 

Original R+T using actual counting margins and averages

 

(R * 2) + (S * .5) + (6 – Opp S) + T

R = Rebounding Margin
S = Average Steals Per Game
T = Turnover Margin

 

New Experimental R+T using rate the percentage number difference from the norm

 

((R*8)+(S*2+((5-Opp S)*2)+(T*4)))/2.75

The 2020 Norms

Offensive Rebounding:        28.1%

Defensive Rebounding:       71.9%

Steals (O&D):                         9.2%

Turnovers (O&D)                16.9%

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Bracketology for February 17, 2020

Date	2/17/2020
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Baylor	Gonzaga	Kansas	San Diego St.
2	Duke	Dayton	Maryland	Florida St.
3	Seton Hall	Penn St.	Louisville	Villanova
4	Auburn	Oregon	Creighton	West Virginia
5	Kentucky	Colorado	Butler	Michigan St.
6	Iowa	Ohio St.	Marquette	Arizona
7	LSU	Michigan	BYU	Texas Tech
8	Houston	Wisconsin	Illinois	Rutgers
9	Oklahoma	USC	Saint Mary’s	Xavier
10	Rhode Island	Florida	Arizona St.	Virginia
11	Wichita St.	Indiana	Northern Iowa	East Tennessee St.
12	Stephen F. Austin	Yale	Georgetown	Cincinnati	Purdue	Utah St.
13	Vermont	Liberty	North Texas	New Mexico St.
14	Akron	Colgate	Wright St.	Hofstra
15	Little Rock	Winthrop	UC-Irvine	Murray St.
16	South Dakota St.	Montana	Prairie View	St. Peter’s	Robert Morris	Norfolk St.

 

The Rest of the Bubble

69	Richmond
70	Arkansas
71	Stanford
72	Mississippi St.
73	North Carolina St.
74	Alabama
75	South Carolina
76	VCU
77	Syracuse
78	Minnesota
79	Furman
80	Memphis

 

A Look At The One-Bid Leagues & Their Conference Tournaments

 

America East: 8 teams with superior seed hosting every game

Vermont (11-1/21-6) has a 2 1/2 game lead over Stony Brook (8-3/17-9), and it would be a major upset if any team other than the Catamounts won this tournament. The race for third place between Albany (7-4/14-12) and Hartford (7-5/14-13) is important, because the 3rd place finisher would get to avoid Vermont until the Championship Game. Of course, second place is still up for grabs, and in the semifinals, the second place team would host the third place team if they both won their quarterfinal round games.

Atlantic Sun: 8 teams with superior seed hosting every game (North Alabama not eligible)

What looked like a cake walk to the conference championship in December has turned into anything but. Liberty (10-2/24-3) was coming off a season in which the Flames won a game in the NCAA Tournament and returned a ton of talent. But, the Flames are not currently in first place in the A-Sun. North Florida (11-2/18-10) not only has a one half game lead over LU, they beat the Flames earlier this year. The rematch is this Thursday at Liberty.

Don’t rule out the third and fourth teams in this league. Stetson (9-3/15-12) has never been to the Division 1 NCAA Tournament, but the Hatters have been in contention in recent years. Lipscomb (7-6/12-14) is the hottest team in the league, having won five of six including a 12-point victory over UNF. The Bisons still have games remaining with the top two teams before tournament play begins.

 

Big Sky: 11 teams in regular bracket at Boise, ID

There is no dominant team inside the league this year. Defending champion Montana (12-3/16-10) was supposed to have a rebuilding season after losing five of the top seven players from consecutive conference championship teams. Give Travis Decuire a lot of credit for his ability to recruit to Missoula and then teach his players to play as a team. The whole is much better than the sum of the parts, and Decuire rates high on our coaches ready to move on to Power Conference schools list, as he is close to leading the Grizzlies to their fourth conference championship in his six years at the school.

Eastern Washington (10-4/17-8) and Northern Colorado (10-4/17-8) are the next two in line in the Big Sky, but EWU has already been swept by Montana, while UNC is one of the three league teams to pin a loss on the Grizzlies. Keep an eye on 6th place Southern Utah (7-7/14-11). The Thunderbirds have been in a bit of a tailspin in the last month, but if they can pull out of it and play like they did in December, they could be a tough out for any of the top five in the league.

Big South: 11 teams. The first round is played at the home court of the higher-seeded team. The quarterfinal and semifinal rounds are then played at the #1 seed’s home floor. The Championship Game is then played on the higher-seeded team’s home floor.

With first place vital in this conference, Winthrop (13-2/19-9) and Radford (12-2/17-9) have separated themselves from the pack and will most likely share the regular season title with identical 16-2 conference records. Since they split their season series with both teams winning on the road against each other, the #1 seed would be settled in a tiebreaker by looking at how these two co-champs fared against the next team in the standings and so forth until the tie is broken. Winthrop’s other conference loss was to 7-6 Gardner-Webb, while Radford’s loss was to 6-8 UNC Asheville. Radford has the advantage here, but remember that Winthrop won at Radford in the regular season, and the Eagles have the superior inside game, which tends to play more of a factor in March.

Big West: 8 teams in regular bracket. All games in Anaheim

UC-Irvine (9-2/17-10) lost some big-time talent off a team that won a game last year’s Big Dance and took Oregon to the final minutes in the Round of 32, but Coach Russ Turner has his Anteaters in first place again this year, and UCI is running away with the regular season race.

The real race is between the second through eighth place teams. First, the ninth place team does not qualify for the tournament, and at the moment, just two games separate second from ninth. Any of the eight teams other than UCI could miss out, while any of the other eight teams could end up with the number two seed. UCSB (5-5/16-9) matches up well with UCI and has a victory over the Anteaters, but they have been swept by Cal St. Northridge (6-5/11-16) and handily defeated by UC-Davis (6-5/12-15). UC-Riverside (4-7/14-13) is a team to watch if they don’t miss out and finish in ninth place. The Highlanders have a very tall lineup that can control the boards and get inside shots when they can control the pace of their games. They are capable of winning three times in three days at the Honda Center.

Colonial Athletic: 10 teams in regular bracket. All games in Washington, D.C.

This is a somewhat down year for the CAA as there are no teams that look capable of winning a second round NCAA Tournament game. The conference race is an interesting one with seven better than average teams.

Joe Mihalich led Niagara to four conference championships and two NCAA Tournament appearances before coming to Hofstra (11-3/20-7). This is his seventh season in Hempstead, and he’s won two CAA Championships thus far, inlcuding last season. This Gaels team is in line to make it number three, but Hofstra has yet to win the CAA Tournament in this time. This teams isn’t as good as last year’s, so it’s hard to say that the Gaels are big favorites to make it to the Dance for the first time since Jay Wright was coaching there in 2001.

Willliam & Mary (10-5/18-10), Delaware (9-5/19-8), and Towson (9-5/16-11) are next in line, but the potentially more dangerous teams are behind them. Charleston (9-6/15-12) and defending Conference Tournament champion Northeastern (7-7/13-13) are talented enough to steal the bid from Hofstra yet again. Charleston is probably the team to watch in the CAA Tournament.

Conference USA: 12 teams in regular bracket. All games in Frisco, TX.

This is a really unique way to host a conference tournament in the Dallas Cowboys practice facility. The league places two playing floors separated by a curtain, and it is possible to sit in such a way that you can see two games at once.

There is quite an advantage here, as the tournament takes place in the backyard of North Texas (12-2/18-9), the current league leader. The Mean Green are undefeated in conference play on their home floor, and they would have to be considered the prohibitive favorite to claim the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.

Western Kentucky (11-3/18-8) defeated UNT in Bowling Green earlier this year, but the Hilltoppers suffered a crippling blow when sure NBA Draft choice big man Charles Bassey’s season ended with a leg injury.

Louisiana Tech (10-4/19-7) plays tough defense, handles the ball well, and they frequently get extra scoring opportunities, so the Bulldogs are a top contender in the conference tournament. If any other team should sneak through and cut the nets at Jerryworld Headquarters, they would most likely be looking at a 16-seed and possible trip to Dayton.

Horizon: 10 teams. The first two rounds are played at the higher-seeded teams’ home courts. Also, after every round, this league re-seeds its remaining teams like the NFL Playoffs. The final two rounds will then be played in Indianapolis, and the top two teams receive byes to the semifinal round, so finishing first or second is extremely important.

Like they have in recent years, this has been a two-team race, and it’s almost a sure thing that Wright St. (13-2/23-5) and Northern Kentucky (11-4/19-8) will be the top two teams. Wright St. is enjoying its best season in their 14-year run as the class of the Horizon League. However, the Raiders did not have a strong out-of-conference schedule, and we would be shocked if they were to win a game in the NCAA Tournament.

Northern Kentucky is transitioning with a new coach, and the Norse are not as strong as they were under former coach John Brannen, who took NKU to two NCAA Tournaments in his final three years.

Ivy: 4 teams in regular bracket. Games will be played at Harvard.

The Ivy League probably has the correct format for a smaller conference. Only the top four teams qualify for the conference tournament, meaning the champion is at least one of the league’s deserving teams.

As of today, the interesting part of this league is that five teams are competing for four spots. All tied for third with 5-3 conference records and six games to go are Harvard (16-7), Penn (13-8), and Brown (12-9).

Yale (6-2/18-6) and Princeton (6-2/11-10) are only a game ahead of the other three, and both teams must finish their regular season playing four road games and two home games. So, one of the co-leaders could easily fall to 8-6 or 7-7 in league play and finish fifth.

Harvard hosts the tournament, and the Crimson have four home games and just two road games remaining. But, those four home games are versus the other four contenders.

Dartmouth (2-6/9-14) is three games behind the contenders, but the Mean Green have the perfect remaining schedule with four home games, while their two road games are against the two weakest teams in the league. It isn’t impossible for Dartmouth to finish 7-7, and then hope that two of those 5-3 teams come back to the pack.

Metro Atlantic: 11 teams in regular bracket. Games will be played in Atlantic City, NJ

What we have here is an almost sure trip to Dayton for the Conference Tournament champion. The MAAC is quite weak this year, and the automatic bid will go to a team that will immediately become an underdog in a first round play-in game unless some 20-loss team pulls off a conference tournament upset.

Saint Peter’s (10-5/13-11) has gone 8-2 in their last ten games. Former Seton Hall star Shaheen Holloway is in his second year with the Peacocks, and his team is the best in the league in defense and rebounding. As hot as the Peacocks have been, there is one team even hotter. Siena (9-5/13-10) has won six of their last seven games, and the six wins were by an average of more than 16 points per game. The Saints have been on a three-point shooting tear in this winning streak, hitting 40 of 103 from behind the arc, while limiting opponents to just 29-106.

Mid-American: 12 teams in regular bracket. First round games at higher-seeded teams. Remaining rounds in Cleveland.

This is not a particularly strong year for some Maction. This is a definite one-bid league, while in past years multiple teams have made the Field.
This is also the only league that continues to divide its teams into divisions. At the present time, the East is a bit stronger than the West, as it has the top four teams in the league. Bowling Green (10-3/19-7) has a slim half-game edge over Akron (9-3/19-6), while Kent St. (7-5/17-8) and defending MAC Champ Buffalo (7-5/15-9) are right behind.

In the West, Northern Illinois (8-5/15-11) leads Ball St. (7-5/14-11) by a half-game with Central Michigan (6-5/13-11) another half-game back, with all three teams tied in the loss column.

Akron and Kent St. have played stronger schedules than the rest of these teams, but neither has pulled off a big win. The Zips probably give this league its best chance to compete as a double-digit seed in the second round of the Dance.

Mideastern Athletic: 10 teams in regular bracket. All games will be played in Norfolk, VA

North Carolina Central (8-2/12-12) and Nofolk St. (8-2/12-13) hold slim leads over North Carolina A&T (8-3/12-14) and Florida A&M (8-4/10-13), but FAMU is not eligible this year. This is a league where past history showing the #1 seed winning the conference tournament over half the time, and teams finishing fourth or fifth tending to win most of the other times.

There are three teams in contention for fifth place where a 9-7 conference mark should be sufficient to qualify as that dark horse contender. They are: Morgan St. (7-5/13-14), Bethune-Cookman (6-5/12-13), and South Carolina St, (6-5/11-12).
Should either of the top three teams run the table in the league and the conference tournament, there is a chance they could avoid a play-in game in Dayton.

Missouri Valley: 10 teams in regular bracket. All games will be played in St. Louis (Arch Madness)

This is one of two leagues where the regular season champion could still get an at-large bid if it loses in the conference tournament. Northern Iowa (11-3/22-4) has worked its way up the ladder where if they win out, the Panthers could earn a single-digit seed in the Field of 68. If UNI were to lose in the Valley Championship Game and finish the regular season at 28-5, they will probably steal an at-large bid away from a big league like the Big Ten, ACC, SEC, or Big 12.

Loyola of Chicago (10-4/18-9) isn’t nearly as strong as they were two years ago when they surprised the nation with a Final Four run, but the Ramblers are good enough to beat UNI in the Conference Tournament if they handle the ball well and play tough defense. Both of their regular season games with the Panthers went to overtime, with the teams splitting the two games.

Bradley (9-5/18-9) did not match up well with the two teams above the Braves in the MVC standings, while Southern Illinois (9-5/15-12) lacks the offensive firepower to win three games in three days in March.

Keep an eye on a team coming from off the pace to challenge UNI in the MVC Tournament. Drake, Indiana State, Valparaiso, and Missouri State are all tied at 7-7 in the league. It might be advantageous to finish 6th and avoid UNI until a potential championship game. While Arch Madness is usually won by one of the top two seeds, it has been won from the middle of the pack before.

Northeast: 8 teams in regular bracket. All games will be played at higher-seeds’ home courts. Merrimack is ineligible during their transition to D1, while the bottom two teams of the remaining 10 will be eliminated from the tournament.

The rule forcing transitioning teams to be ineligible for the NCAA Tournament is just plain stupid. The NEC has a dominating team in Merrimack (12-2/18-9), who should at least get a chance to prove themselves with an NIT bid. If a team is good enough to win their conference championship and conference tournament, why punish the team and their league? Merrimack doesn’t have an advantage moving up in classification. It’s understandable that a team moving down might should be punished with ineligibility until all of its former Division 1 players have graduated, but this is a team moving up to D1.

The eventual tournament champion is a sure bet for banishment to Dayton and the play-in game. The contenders are all quite weak and none of these teams should be expected to compete against more athletic play-in opponents. The best of the rest include Robert Morris (11-3/15-12), Saint Francis (PA) (10-4/17-8), and Sacred Heart (9-5/16-11). With a five-game winning streak and the best offense in the league, SFPA should be considered the team to beat.

Ohio Valley: 8 teams playing in a special format in Evansville, IN. The OVC brackets their tournament in a method similar to the finals of the Professional Bowlers Association. First, only the top eight of the 12 league teams qualify for the tournament. In the first round, teams 5-8 play, with the two winners advancing to the quarterfinals to play teams 3-4. The two teams that win this round then advance to the semfinals to play teams 1 and 2, so finishing in the top two gets you a two-round bye to the semifinals.

There are four teams in contention for those two double byes, and this league is strong at the top, but not strong enough to sneak a second team into the field like last year.

Murray St. (12-2/19-7) and Austin Peay (12-2/18-9) have been tough rivals for years in the OVC and have enjoyed their share of success in the NCAA Tournament. Belmont (11-3/20-7) beat Temple in the NCAA Tournament last year, but the Bruins have nearly beaten top-rated teams in the NCAA Tournament before, like when a last second shot nearly missed that would have knocked out Duke. Fourth place Eastern Kentucky (10-4/13-14) has averaged 83.5 points per game in their last nine games, using a pressure defense to come up with a lot of steals and fast break points. The Colonels don’t have the same talent as the other three contenders, but they are likely to come with a reckless abandon attitude, while the others might be a bit tight.

If a team from the back of the pack has a chance, it might be Tennessee State (8-6/16-11). The Tigers have the talent to put it together and as a 5-seed, beat the numbers 8, 4, and 1-seed to get to the Championship Game.

Patriot: 8 teams playing in a regular bracket with the higher seeds hosting all games.

Colgate (11-3/20-7) looked like the class of the field until yesterday, when the Raiders fell second division Loyola of Maryland (5-9/13-14). Colgate also lost twice to Lafayette (8-6/16-9). Second place Boston U (10-4/16-11) has won six of seven, but the Terriers lost twice to Colgate. American (9-5/13-12) is in third, while the aforementioned Lafayette rests in fourth place, which probably irritates Colgate, because that would put the Leopards and Raiders on the same side of the Conference Tournament bracket.

Southern: 10 teams playing in a regular bracket with all games played in Asheville, NC.

This is the other league besides the Missouri Valley where a second team could earn an at-large bid. This league is dangerously good at the top of the standings. East Tennessee (12-2/23-4) won at LSU by double digits. Furman (12-2/22-5) lost in overtime at Auburn. UNC Greensboro (11-3/21-6) has road wins against Georgetown and Vermont as well as a close loss at Kansas. Plus, UNCG plays a very unorthodox defense that is difficult to face the first time. Additionally, the fourth through seventh place teams, all with records of 8-6 or 7-7 in league play (Western Carolina, Wofford, Chattanooga, and Mercer) are strong enough to probably win other Mid-Major leagues like the NEC, Patriot, and Big Sky).

If the two championship game participants include ETSU and either Furman or UNCG, the loser of this game deserves an at-large bid, especially if it is at the expense of a power conference team with a losing conference record.

Southland: 8 teams playing in a regular bracket with all games played in Katy, TX, and the bottom five teams in the standings eliminated from the tournament.

Stephen F. Austin (13-1/22-3) will not get an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament if they do not win the automatic bid, even though the Lumberjacks won at Duke. The rest of their schedule has not been strong enough to allow them this pass. Should they lose in the SLC Tournament, SFA will actually be a team capable of winning the NIT,but that’s not what they want.

Who could possibly upset SFA in the Conference Tournament? The team to watch would be Nicholls State (11-4/17-9). The Colonels full court press the entire game, and nobody wants to face that pressure in pressure-packed games. At 10 steals per game out of 73 possessions, it leaves little room for error for the team that commits a few too many additional turnovers. Opponents turn the ball over better than one out of every four possessions.

Southwest Athletic: 8 teams playing in a regular bracket with first round games at the higher seeded teams’ home courts and all the final two rounds in Birmingham, AL.

If you follow this incredible conference steeped in great history, you are in for quite a treat at this year’s SWAC Tournament, because as many as seven teams have the ability to come through and get the automatic bid. This might be the most exciting tournament from game one to the Championship Game!

Prairie View (9-2/13-11) and Texas Southern (8-3/11-13) lead the pack at the present time. Both teams have played some very good games on the road against heavy favorites, and both have won games that prove they could contend and maybe scare a heavily-ranked team if one of these teams could sneak into a 15-seed.

After the top two, there are five teams tied for third at 7-5 (Grambling, Alcorn St., Jackson St., Southern, and Alabama St.). We believe that Texas Southern gives the SWAC its best chance to win a play-in game as a 16-seed, while Prairie View is the only team capable of sneaking up to a 15-seed.

Summit: 9 teams playing in a regular bracket with all games played in Sioux Falls, SD.

When your conference tournament is played inside the state where two of your league’s top three teams play, the odds are stacked in the favor of the two in-state teams. South Dakota St. (11-2/20-8) has basically become the Kentucky of the Summit League. The Championship comes through Brookings and then Sioux Falls becomes Frost Arena II, where the Jackrabbits have won five of the last eight Summit League Tournaments.

North Dakota State (10-2/19-7) finished behind SDSU last year in the Summit League race, but then the Bison won the Summit Championship, then won their play-in game in the NCAA First Round, and then stayed within single digits of Duke for 30 minutes in the Second Round.

Don’t forget South Dakota (9-4/19-9) or Oral Roberts (7-6/14-12). Both teams can score a lot of points, and a hot streak by either team could see them cutting down the nets.

Sun Belt: 10 teams playing in a special bracket. The first three rounds will be played at the higher-seeded teams’ home courts, while the semifinals and finals will be played in New Orleans. Teams 7-10 only will play in the first round. The two winners will then play at seeds 5-6 in the second round, and the two winners in that round will play at seeds 3-4 in the third round. The top two seeds get byes to the semifinals in New Orleans, so the regular season conference race will be a mad dash to the finish.

The SBC plays a 20-game conference schedule, and with four games to go, Little Rock (12-4/18-9) holds a slim lead over (Georgia St. (11-5/18-9). Texas St. (10-6/17-10) and Georgia Southern (10-6/17-11). Two other teams, South Alabama and Appalachian St., are 9-7 in the league and still in the race for second place.

All these teams have had nights where they played a good Power Conference team close in a loss, but none of these teams have a big win this year. The champion of this league is likely looking at a quick second round exit as a 15-seed.

Western Athletic: 8 teams playing in regular bracket with all games played in Las Vegas. California Baptist is ineligible.

New Mexico State (12-0/21-6) is such a heavy favorite that it would be a bigger upset if they lost in the WAC Tournament than if the New York Knicks won this year’s NBA Championship. The Aggies have won this league three years in a row and seven times in the last eight seasons.

With second place Cal Baptist (7-3/18-7) not eligible, the next best team is Grand Canyon (7-4/12-13) with Texas Rio Grande Valley next at (7-5/11-14).

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For February 14, 2020

Date	2/14/2020
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Baylor	Gonzaga	Kansas	San Diego St.
2	Duke	Dayton	Louisville	Maryland
3	Seton Hall	Florida St.	West Virginia	Auburn
4	Villanova	Butler	Penn St.	Oregon
5	Kentucky	Creighton	Michigan St.	Colorado
6	Marquette	Iowa	Arizona	LSU
7	Arizona	Rutgers	Wisconsin	Michigan
8	Ohio St.	Texas Tech	Illinois	Houston
9	USC	Purdue	Rhode Island	Saint Mary’s
10	Oklahoma	Florida	Xavier	Wichita St.
11	Stanford	Indiana	Northern Iowa	Arkansas	Virginia
12	East Tennessee St.	Yale	Stephen F. Austin	Cincinnati	Arizona St.
13	Liberty	Vermont	New Mexico St.	North Texas
14	Colgate	Wright St.	Akron	Winthrop
15	Hofstra	Little Rock	Murray St.	UC-Irvine
16	South Dakota St.	Montana	Prairie View	Rider	Robert Morris	Norfolk St.

 

Bubble Contenders

 

69	VCU
70	N. Carolina St.
71	Mississippi St.
72	Utah St.
73	Georgetown
74	Richmond
75	Minnesota
76	Memphis
77	Furman
78	Notre Dame
79	Alabama
80	Tennessee

 

First Four Games

11–seeds: Arkansas vs. Virginia

12–seeds: Cincinnati vs. Arizona St.

16-seeds: Prairie View vs. Robert Morris

16-seeds: Rider vs. Norfolk St.

 

Best PiRate Rating Criteria To Win National Championship

Duke

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For February 10, 2020

Date	2/10/2020
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Baylor	Gonzaga	Kansas	San Diego St.
2	Duke	Dayton	Louisville	Maryland
3	Seton Hall	Florida St.	West Virginia	Auburn
4	Villanova	Butler	Oregon	Penn St.
5	Kentucky	Michigan St.	Iowa	Creighton
6	LSU	Colorado	Marquette	Illinois
7	Arizona	Rutgers	Wisconsin	Michigan
8	Houston	Texas Tech	BYU	Ohio St.
9	USC	Purdue	Wichita St.	Arkansas
10	Saint Mary’s	Rhode Island	Oklahoma	Florida
11	Xavier	Indiana	Northern Iowa	Stanford	Virginia
12	E. Tennessee St.	Yale	S. F. Austin	Mississippi St.	VCU
13	Liberty	Vermont	New Mexico St.	North Texas
14	Bowling Green	Wright St.	Colgate	Hofstra
15	Winthrop	Little Rock	Murray St.	UC-Irvine
16	South Dakota St.	Montana	Prairie View	Rider	Robert Morris	N. Carolina A&T
The Bubble Contenders
69	Arizona St.
70	Cincinnati
71	Memphis
72	Utah St.
73	Minnesota
74	N. Carolina St.
75	Richmond
76	Syracuse
77	Notre Dame
78	Furman