The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 22, 2023

PiRate Ratings NFL Conference Championships–Sunday, January 29, 2023

Margins

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
Kansas CityCincinnati5.44.73.6
PhiladelphiaSan Francisco3.22.21.7

Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
Kansas CityCincinnati57.0
PhiladelphiaSan Francisco46.5

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, January 22, 2023

HomeVisitorSpread
CaliforniaOregon St.3.6
CincinnatiMemphis0.6
ColoradoWashington St.4.6
ConnecticutButler14.4
Fairleigh DickinsonStonehill5.0
HoustonTemple21.3
IndianaMichigan St.5.5
Long IslandCentral Connecticut St.-6.8
MaineBinghamton2.3
MichiganMinnesota13.4
Mount St. Mary’sMarist4.1
PurdueMaryland9.1
QuinnipiacCanisius10.3
RiderManhattan9.6
Saint Peter’sNiagara0.0
SienaFairfield6.9
SMUWichita St.0.1
St. Francis (NY)Merrimack0.5
UMass LowellBryant3.4
VermontNJIT12.0
WagnerSacred Heart4.7
WoffordFurman-3.3

Coming Soon: “The 2023 list of coaches ready for the big time.”

In the past, our list has included Eric Musselman, Nate Oats, Matt McMahon, Todd Golden, Chris Jans, T.J. Otzelberger, Wes Miller, Steve Forbes, Mike Young, and top assistants like Jon Scheyer and Tommy Lloyd. All of these guys are coaching at a big time program in 2023, and some have already developed their school into a major power. Who makes this year’s list? We’ll give you 20 guys that can turn your moribund Major College program around in short time.

January 16, 2023

PiRate Ratings NFL Divisional Playoff Round–January 21-22, 2023

Margins

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
Kansas CityJacksonville11.19.79.3
PhiladelphiaN.Y. Giants10.18.58.1
BuffaloCincinnati5.54.94.1
San FranciscoDallas2.22.83.1

Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
Kansas CityJacksonville51
PhiladelphiaN.Y. Giants45
BuffaloCincinnati49.5
San FranciscoDallas47.5

January 8, 2023

PiRate Ratings NFL–Wildcard Round, January 14-16, 2023

Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
BuffaloMiami11.711.411.6
CincinnatiBaltimore7.07.78.4
JacksonvilleLA Chargers3.63.73.6
MinnesotaN.Y. Giants5.44.34.1
San FranciscoSeattle9.59.89.7
Tampa BayDallas-2.9-3.3-3.7

Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
BuffaloMiami46
CincinnatiBaltimore42.5
JacksonvilleLA Chargers48
MinnesotaN.Y. Giants47.5
San FranciscoSeattle42.5
Tampa BayDallas47.5

Final Regular Season PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo109.0108.7108.5108.723.513-3
New England103.1102.9103.1103.0208-9
Miami100.3100.399.9100.222.59-8
N.Y. Jets98.799.198.798.816.57-10
NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Cincinnati106.2106.4106.9106.525.512-4
Baltimore102.3101.7101.5101.81710-7
Pittsburgh100.4100.7101.2100.818.59-8
Cleveland99.498.999.199.1217-10
SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Jacksonville101.7102.6102.5102.3239-8
Tennessee95.395.595.495.418.57-10
Indianapolis92.492.291.992.2214-12-1
Houston89.991.090.690.520.53-13-1
WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City109.7109.2108.7109.228.514-3
LA Chargers101.1101.9101.8101.62510-7
Las Vegas98.898.898.698.725.56-11
Denver97.598.197.097.5175-12
N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas105.9105.6105.9105.82612-5
Philadelphia106.0105.3105.3105.52514-3
N.Y. Giants97.598.498.798.2209-7-1
Washington96.996.496.796.717.58-8-1
NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay102.9102.4102.8102.722.58-9
Detroit100.0100.7101.1100.6269-8
Minnesota99.999.799.999.827.513-4
Chicago90.590.790.390.5213-14
SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
New Orleans101.1100.2100.6100.617.57-10
Tampa Bay100.099.399.399.521.58-9
Carolina98.198.498.698.421.57-10
Atlanta95.495.795.695.5237-10
WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
San Francisco105.9106.2106.7106.22113-4
Seattle99.399.4100.099.621.59-8
LA Rams99.398.898.598.9205-12
Arizona95.295.094.795.0244-13

Playoff Projections (not using PiRate Ratings)

Wildcard Round
Buffalo over Miami
Cincinnati over Baltimore
LA Chargers over Jacksonville
San Francisco over Seattle
N.Y. Giants over Minnesota
Dallas over Tampa Bay

Divisional Round
Kansas City over LA Chargers
Buffalo over Cincinnati
N.Y. Giants over Philadelphia
San Francisco over Dallas

Conference Championship
Kansas City over Buffalo
San Francisco over N.Y. Giants

Super Bowl 57 (Glendale, AZ)
Kansas City over San Francisco

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, January 8, 2023

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 4:00 am
HomeVisitorSpread
AlbanyUMass Lowell-10.7
AmericanBoston5.3
Arizona St.Washington8.6
BryantUMBC5.9
Central FloridaSMU12.1
CincinnatiHouston-10.2
Eastern KentuckyLiberty-9.1
Holy CrossLoyola (MD)2.0
IndianaNorthwestern7.7
LafayetteBucknell1.1
MaineNJIT5.8
ManhattanNiagara-3.3
MaristMount St. Mary’s-2.0
MarylandOhio St.-1.2
NavyLehigh9.0
New HampshireVermont-6.5
Northern KentuckyDetroit2.9
Penn St.Purdue-5.3
QuinnipiacIona-6.6
RutgersIowa6.7
Saint Peter’sCanisius2.2
SienaRider4.2
South FloridaWichita St.-0.2
Wright St.Oakland6.2

PiRates Take On NCAA Tournament Expansion

There has been talk of expanding the NCAA Tournament from the current 68 teams up to potentially 90. We do not think that is a great option, but we do believe that expanding by four to 72 would be worthwhile. Enough new schools have been added to the ranks of Division I since the tournament expanded from 64 to 65 to 68.

We would alter how the tournament is seeded in a 72-team field. Because the new Division I teams are among the bottom of the now 363 teams in power ratings, the four new seeds should be bottom seeds. How about making the #15 and #16 seeds the bottom 16 automatic qualifiers in the Dance? That means there woud be eight, 15-seeds and eight, 16-seeds. All 15’s and 16’s would begin the tournament in a First 16 Round. The tournament could keep the Dayton site for half the games and maybe use Denver for the other half.

This would eliminate the First Four games for the bottom at-large teams, but there would now be more spots for the at-large.

This would also suffice in placing a power conference team that pulls off a bunch of upsets to win their conference tournament. A team that goes 10-21 in the regular season and then wins four games in four days to earn an automatic bid at 14-21 could now be placed in one of those 15-seeds as one of the weakest automatic qualifiers.

January 5, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Thursday, January 5, 2023

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:30 am
HomeVisitorSpread
UMBCAlbany9.4
Holy CrossAmerican-8.1
South AlabamaArkansas St.9.6
Loyola (MD)Army0.7
VermontBryant3.7
Loyola MarymountBYU-0.1
Cal St. BakersfieldCal Poly1.6
UC RiversideCal St. Fullerton6.4
Florida Int’l.Charlotte-8.0
Wichita St.Cincinnati-1.3
Appalachian St.Coastal Carolina3.5
St. ThomasDenver6.4
TowsonDrexel5.2
Tennessee TechEastern Illinois3.4
Central ArkansasEastern Kentucky-4.4
St. Francis (NY)Fairleigh Dickinson1.2
Austin PeayFlorida Gulf Coast-5.2
Louisiana MonroeGeorgia St.-1.9
San FranciscoGonzaga-10.0
Sam Houston St.Grand Canyon6.1
Purdue Ft. WayneGreen Bay20.0
UC San DiegoHawaii-6.5
HamptonHofstra-10.6
Southeastern LouisianaHouston Christian9.8
IowaIndiana0.1
StetsonJacksonville-0.6
LibertyJacksonville St.12.8
North FloridaKennesaw St.0.5
Boston U.Lafayette4.1
New OrleansLamar6.1
BucknellLehigh7.5
Cal St. NorthridgeLong Beach St.-4.3
Central Connecticut St.Long Island8.9
RiceLouisiana Tech1.0
UMass LowellMaine12.6
Georgia SouthernMarshall-7.4
RutgersMaryland5.8
UTSAMiddle Tennessee-9.3
Cleveland St.Milwaukee4.8
Northern ArizonaMontana-3.0
Northern ColoradoMontana St.-2.6
ColgateNavy6.7
BinghamtonNew Hampshire-0.8
Texas A&M CommerceNicholls St.-2.2
LipscombNorth Alabama6.3
Western KentuckyNorth Texas-4.2
William & MaryNortheastern0.4
McNeese St.Northwestern St.-3.4
TroyOld Dominion4.3
Western IllinoisOmaha4.1
ColoradoOregon2.2
UtahOregon St.16.4
San DiegoPacific7.3
Eastern WashingtonPortland St.5.4
Ohio St.Purdue2.2
BellarmineQueens-0.7
Youngstown St.Robert Morris8.1
IdahoSacramento St.-1.8
MerrimackSacred Heart0.3
PepperdineSanta Clara-1.2
UT Rio Grande ValleySeattle-7.1
HoustonSMU22.4
North DakotaSouth Dakota-1.7
North Dakota St.South Dakota St.-2.2
UT MartinSoutheast Missouri St.1.5
Morehead St.Southern Indiana1.5
LouisianaSouthern Miss.1.2
Tarleton St.Southern Utah0.3
MonmouthStony Brook-2.6
SIU EdwardsvilleTennessee St.7.5
James MadisonTexas St.14.8
Florida AtlanticUAB2.6
UC DavisUC Irvine-3.7
UCLAUSC14.1
Cal BaptistUtah Tech3.4
UT ArlingtonUtah Valley-7.4
StonehillWagner-0.3
ArizonaWashington17.7
Arizona St.Washington St.5.1

January 3, 2023

PiRate Ratings NFL For Week 18–January 7-8, 2023

Margins

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
AtlantaTampa Bay-3.5-2.5-2.6
BuffaloNew England8.58.38.0
ChicagoMinnesota-6.1-5.8-6.3
CincinnatiBaltimore5.46.16.8
Green BayDetroit7.36.26.3
IndianapolisHouston4.63.33.7
JacksonvilleTennessee9.810.911.3
MiamiN.Y. Jets4.64.24.3
New OrleansCarolina6.65.45.8
PhiladelphiaN.Y. Giants9.88.17.8
PittsburghCleveland1.92.72.8
WashingtonDallas-8.5-8.8-9.1
DenverLA Chargers-2.0-2.2-3.2
Las VegasKansas City-7.5-7.0-6.7
San FranciscoArizona11.311.812.5
SeattleLA Rams3.13.64.5

Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
AtlantaTampa Bay44.5
BuffaloNew England42.5
ChicagoMinnesota49
CincinnatiBaltimore42.5
Green BayDetroit49.5
IndianapolisHouston39.5
JacksonvilleTennessee41.5
MiamiN.Y. Jets41
New OrleansCarolina41
PhiladelphiaN.Y. Giants46
PittsburghCleveland39.5
WashingtonDallas44.5
DenverLA Chargers41
Las VegasKansas City55
San FranciscoArizona44
SeattleLA Rams42.5

Week 18 PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo108.8108.5108.3108.52312-3
New England103.3103.1103.3103.219.58-8
Miami100.3100.399.9100.223.58-8
N.Y. Jets98.799.198.798.817.57-9
NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Cincinnati105.9106.1106.6106.225.511-4
Baltimore102.6102.0101.8102.11710-6
Cleveland100.299.7100.0100.0217-9
Pittsburgh99.699.9100.399.918.58-8
SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Jacksonville101.9103.0103.1102.7238-8
Tennessee95.195.194.895.018.57-9
Indianapolis92.792.592.392.5204-11-1
Houston89.690.790.290.119.52-13-1
WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City109.0108.5108.0108.52913-3
LA Chargers101.3102.1102.0101.824.510-6
Las Vegas99.599.599.399.4266-10
Denver97.397.996.897.316.54-12
N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas106.9106.7107.1106.926.512-4
Philadelphia106.1105.4105.4105.625.513-3
N.Y. Giants97.498.398.698.120.59-6-1
Washington95.995.395.595.6187-8-1
NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay103.6103.1103.6103.4238-8
Detroit99.3100.0100.399.926.58-8
Minnesota99.399.199.399.227.512-4
Chicago91.191.390.991.121.53-13
SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
New Orleans101.9101.0101.5101.518.57-9
Tampa Bay100.299.599.599.721.58-8
Carolina97.397.697.797.522.56-10
Atlanta95.295.595.495.3236-10
WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
San Francisco104.7105.0105.5105.020.512-4
Seattle99.399.4100.099.6228-8
LA Rams99.398.898.598.920.55-11
Arizona96.496.295.996.223.54-12

Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1Kansas City
2Cincinnati
3Buffalo
4Jacksonville
5LA Chargers
6Baltimore
7New England
NFC Seeding
1San Francisco
2Dallas
3Minnesota
4Tampa Bay
5Philadelphia
6New York Giants
7Green Bay

Wildcard Round
New England over Cincinnati
Baltimore over Buffalo
Jacksonville over LA Chargers
Green Bay over Dallas
N.Y. Giants over Minnesota
Tampa Bay over Philadelphia
Divisional Round
Kansas City over New England
Jacksonville over Baltimore
San Francisco over Green Bay
Tampa Bay over N.Y. Giants
Conference Championship
Kansas City over Jacksonville
San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Super Bowl 57 (Glendale, AZ)
Kansas City over San Francisco

NFL Notice

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:21 am

The unfortunate event that took place in Cincinnati last night in the Monday Night Football game has affected the PiRate Ratings’ updating procedure. The game has now officially been canceled for this week, meaning the next NFL games will take place Saturday in Week 18.

The PiRate Ratings are formulated before the season with certain constants factored in the algorithms, and altering the schedule with two teams not playing has brought me to change the three ratings. The problem is in order to do so, I have to backdate the ratings to the last week of scheduled byes and recalculate the ratings to include an extra bye for Cincinnati and Buffalo.

During the Covid schedule changes, the games were canceled or the schedule was changed before any games were played, so it was easier to calculate new spreads, because the teams had not played. Having to calculate new spreads based on 30 teams playing and two not playing creates a logistical pile of work, and thus the ratings will not be available until late tonight or early tomorrow.

The PiRates pray for a complete recovery for Damar Hamlin. All of us were watching the game live when it happened, and there were tears in all of our eyes. I, the PiRate Captain, have had a difficult time dealing with the passing of the Great Pirate, Mike Leach. Earlier in the day, seeing the Mississippi State football helmets in the Reliaquest Bowl was quite an emotional event. This also comes on the heels of the unfortunate death of an Iowa Hawkeye linebacker Jack Campbell’s grandfather being killed here in Nashville when he was struck by a van near Vanderbilt University while visiting for the Music City Bowl.

Both the cities of Buffalo and Cincinnati have their share of news-breaking fatalities. In Buffalo, in the past year, there has been a tragic mass killing and multiple weather-related deaths. In Cincinnati, it is from the past, as there was a major catastrophe of ticket-holders being crushed to death trying to get choice general admission seats at a Who concert at Riverfront Coliseum in 1979. And in another event where I was watching live on TV, on the opening day of the 1996 Major League Baseball season at Riverfront Stadium, home plate umpire John McSherry attempted to walk to the backstop trying to signal for help, and then he free fell to the ground similar to the way Hamlin fell last night. Efforts to revive him with conventional CPR were unsuccessful.

The hope is that the AED device that restarted Hamlin’s heart last night was able to do so before his brain was robbed of oxygen too long.

I am trained in CPR and other Civil Defense first aid. It is easy enough to learn the basics, including how to save a choking victim, how to save a drowning victim, and even how to deliver a baby in an emergency situation. If you are reading this, please consider learning these basics. Let’s hope that Mr. Hamlin recovers, and the nation becomes a better place because people took the initiative to learn first aid.

January 1, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, January 1, 2023

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:08 am
HomeVisitorSpread
CanisiusMount St. Mary’s0.2
DartmouthCornell-7.2
DePaulProvidence-4.3
EvansvilleMurray St.-6.1
FairfieldSiena-2.5
GeorgetownButler-3.0
IonaSaint Peter’s17.3
ManhattanQuinnipiac-5.7
MichiganMaryland-2.0
Missouri St.Drake0.2
NorthwesternOhio St.-1.8
Penn St.Iowa1.5
SMUTulsa6.8
Southern IllinoisBelmont3.5
TempleCincinnati-3.3
TulaneMemphis-5.1
UMBCVermont-0.5
ValparaisoIndiana St.-7.0
WashingtonUCLA-11.4
Washington St.USC1.6

December 29, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Thursday, December 29, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:56 am
Thursday, December 29, 2022
HomeVisitorSpread
BellarmineLiberty-6.5
ButlerProvidence1.8
Coastal CarolinaLouisiana-1.5
Cal PolyCal St. Northridge4.1
CaliforniaUtah-10.6
CharlestonHampton19.0
CharlotteMiddle Tennessee3.7
CincinnatiTulane6.6
CornellBinghamton14.8
Cal St. FullertonUC Santa Barbara-3.6
DelawareHofstra-0.9
DenverUMKC2.9
DePaulGeorgetown5.2
DetroitGreen Bay15.2
DrakeValparaiso15.4
DrexelElon12.4
E. IllinoisLindenwood3.4
Fairleigh DickinsonMerrimack4.1
FurmanVMI15.5
Georgia SouthernSouth Alabama-3.1
Gardner WebbCharleston Southern10.3
Georgia St.James Madison-8.8
Grand CanyonCal Baptist6.5
HowardLa Salle0.2
Idaho St.N. Arizona-0.7
IllinoisBethune Cookman28.6
Indiana St.Evansville13.3
Louisiana TechUTSA12.3
Long Beach St.UC San Diego9.4
Little RockUT Martin-1.4
Long IslandWagner-7.2
LongwoodHigh Point5.8
MarshallAppalachian St.10.3
MarylandUMBC19.4
MemphisSouth Florida16.0
MichiganCentral Michigan20.3
MontanaEastern Washington3.3
Montana St.Idaho10.9
Murray St.Southern Illinois-0.5
Northern KentuckyWright St.1.1
OmahaOral Roberts-11.5
NebraskaIowa-4.1
North TexasFlorida Atlantic0.4
NortheasternNorth Carolina A&T3.9
NorthwesternBrown16.0
OaklandMilwaukee-1.4
Ohio St.Alabama A&M27.4
Old DominionArkansas St.10.6
PacificBYU-7.4
Penn St.Delaware St.30.8
PortlandLoyola Marymount1.6
PresbyterianCampbell-2.8
PurdueFlorida A&M34.1
QueensAustin Peay6.3
Robert MorrisPurdue Ft. Wayne-2.8
South Dakota St.Western Illinois7.2
Sacred HeartStonehill3.8
Saint Mary’sSan Diego16.4
Santa ClaraSan Francisco0.7
USC UpstateWinthrop-1.9
Stephen F. AustinAbilene Christian3.0
SIU-EdwardsvilleTennessee Tech10.0
Southern IndianaSoutheast Missouri St.3.6
Southern Miss.Troy3.3
South DakotaSt. Thomas-2.1
St. Francis PACentral Connecticut2.7
StanfordColorado1.9
Tarleton St.UT Arlington7.5
Tennessee St.Morehead St.2.2
Texas St.Louisiana Monroe9.3
The CitadelChattanooga-6.7
UABUTEP15.8
UC RiversideCal St. Bakersfield10.0
UNC AshevilleRadford2.3
Utah TechUT Rio Grande Valley9.4
Utah ValleySam Houston-1.4
Western CarolinaUNC Greensboro-3.9
Western KentuckyRice5.5
Weber St.Northern Colorado2.9
WoffordETSU8.0
Youngstown St.Cleveland St.7.0
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