PiRate Ratings NFL Conference Championships–Sunday, January 29, 2023

Margins

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Kansas City	Cincinnati	5.4	4.7	3.6
Philadelphia	San Francisco	3.2	2.2	1.7

Totals

Home	Visitor	Total
Kansas City	Cincinnati	57.0
Philadelphia	San Francisco	46.5

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, January 22, 2023

Home	Visitor	Spread
California	Oregon St.	3.6
Cincinnati	Memphis	0.6
Colorado	Washington St.	4.6
Connecticut	Butler	14.4
Fairleigh Dickinson	Stonehill	5.0
Houston	Temple	21.3
Indiana	Michigan St.	5.5
Long Island	Central Connecticut St.	-6.8
Maine	Binghamton	2.3
Michigan	Minnesota	13.4
Mount St. Mary’s	Marist	4.1
Purdue	Maryland	9.1
Quinnipiac	Canisius	10.3
Rider	Manhattan	9.6
Saint Peter’s	Niagara	0.0
Siena	Fairfield	6.9
SMU	Wichita St.	0.1
St. Francis (NY)	Merrimack	0.5
UMass Lowell	Bryant	3.4
Vermont	NJIT	12.0
Wagner	Sacred Heart	4.7
Wofford	Furman	-3.3

Coming Soon: “The 2023 list of coaches ready for the big time.”

In the past, our list has included Eric Musselman, Nate Oats, Matt McMahon, Todd Golden, Chris Jans, T.J. Otzelberger, Wes Miller, Steve Forbes, Mike Young, and top assistants like Jon Scheyer and Tommy Lloyd. All of these guys are coaching at a big time program in 2023, and some have already developed their school into a major power. Who makes this year’s list? We’ll give you 20 guys that can turn your moribund Major College program around in short time.

PiRate Ratings NFL Divisional Playoff Round–January 21-22, 2023

Margins

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Kansas City	Jacksonville	11.1	9.7	9.3
Philadelphia	N.Y. Giants	10.1	8.5	8.1
Buffalo	Cincinnati	5.5	4.9	4.1
San Francisco	Dallas	2.2	2.8	3.1

Totals

Home	Visitor	Total
Kansas City	Jacksonville	51
Philadelphia	N.Y. Giants	45
Buffalo	Cincinnati	49.5
San Francisco	Dallas	47.5

PiRate Ratings NFL–Wildcard Round, January 14-16, 2023

Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Buffalo	Miami	11.7	11.4	11.6
Cincinnati	Baltimore	7.0	7.7	8.4
Jacksonville	LA Chargers	3.6	3.7	3.6
Minnesota	N.Y. Giants	5.4	4.3	4.1
San Francisco	Seattle	9.5	9.8	9.7
Tampa Bay	Dallas	-2.9	-3.3	-3.7

Totals

Home	Visitor	Total
Buffalo	Miami	46
Cincinnati	Baltimore	42.5
Jacksonville	LA Chargers	48
Minnesota	N.Y. Giants	47.5
San Francisco	Seattle	42.5
Tampa Bay	Dallas	47.5

Final Regular Season PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Buffalo	109.0	108.7	108.5	108.7	23.5	13-3
New England	103.1	102.9	103.1	103.0	20	8-9
Miami	100.3	100.3	99.9	100.2	22.5	9-8
N.Y. Jets	98.7	99.1	98.7	98.8	16.5	7-10
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Cincinnati	106.2	106.4	106.9	106.5	25.5	12-4
Baltimore	102.3	101.7	101.5	101.8	17	10-7
Pittsburgh	100.4	100.7	101.2	100.8	18.5	9-8
Cleveland	99.4	98.9	99.1	99.1	21	7-10
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Jacksonville	101.7	102.6	102.5	102.3	23	9-8
Tennessee	95.3	95.5	95.4	95.4	18.5	7-10
Indianapolis	92.4	92.2	91.9	92.2	21	4-12-1
Houston	89.9	91.0	90.6	90.5	20.5	3-13-1
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	109.7	109.2	108.7	109.2	28.5	14-3
LA Chargers	101.1	101.9	101.8	101.6	25	10-7
Las Vegas	98.8	98.8	98.6	98.7	25.5	6-11
Denver	97.5	98.1	97.0	97.5	17	5-12
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	105.9	105.6	105.9	105.8	26	12-5
Philadelphia	106.0	105.3	105.3	105.5	25	14-3
N.Y. Giants	97.5	98.4	98.7	98.2	20	9-7-1
Washington	96.9	96.4	96.7	96.7	17.5	8-8-1
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Green Bay	102.9	102.4	102.8	102.7	22.5	8-9
Detroit	100.0	100.7	101.1	100.6	26	9-8
Minnesota	99.9	99.7	99.9	99.8	27.5	13-4
Chicago	90.5	90.7	90.3	90.5	21	3-14
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	101.1	100.2	100.6	100.6	17.5	7-10
Tampa Bay	100.0	99.3	99.3	99.5	21.5	8-9
Carolina	98.1	98.4	98.6	98.4	21.5	7-10
Atlanta	95.4	95.7	95.6	95.5	23	7-10
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
San Francisco	105.9	106.2	106.7	106.2	21	13-4
Seattle	99.3	99.4	100.0	99.6	21.5	9-8
LA Rams	99.3	98.8	98.5	98.9	20	5-12
Arizona	95.2	95.0	94.7	95.0	24	4-13

Playoff Projections (not using PiRate Ratings)

Wildcard Round
Buffalo over Miami
Cincinnati over Baltimore
LA Chargers over Jacksonville
San Francisco over Seattle
N.Y. Giants over Minnesota
Dallas over Tampa Bay
Divisional Round
Kansas City over LA Chargers
Buffalo over Cincinnati
N.Y. Giants over Philadelphia
San Francisco over Dallas
Conference Championship
Kansas City over Buffalo
San Francisco over N.Y. Giants
Super Bowl 57 (Glendale, AZ)
Kansas City over San Francisco

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, January 8, 2023

Home	Visitor	Spread
Albany	UMass Lowell	-10.7
American	Boston	5.3
Arizona St.	Washington	8.6
Bryant	UMBC	5.9
Central Florida	SMU	12.1
Cincinnati	Houston	-10.2
Eastern Kentucky	Liberty	-9.1
Holy Cross	Loyola (MD)	2.0
Indiana	Northwestern	7.7
Lafayette	Bucknell	1.1
Maine	NJIT	5.8
Manhattan	Niagara	-3.3
Marist	Mount St. Mary’s	-2.0
Maryland	Ohio St.	-1.2
Navy	Lehigh	9.0
New Hampshire	Vermont	-6.5
Northern Kentucky	Detroit	2.9
Penn St.	Purdue	-5.3
Quinnipiac	Iona	-6.6
Rutgers	Iowa	6.7
Saint Peter’s	Canisius	2.2
Siena	Rider	4.2
South Florida	Wichita St.	-0.2
Wright St.	Oakland	6.2

PiRates Take On NCAA Tournament Expansion

There has been talk of expanding the NCAA Tournament from the current 68 teams up to potentially 90. We do not think that is a great option, but we do believe that expanding by four to 72 would be worthwhile. Enough new schools have been added to the ranks of Division I since the tournament expanded from 64 to 65 to 68.

We would alter how the tournament is seeded in a 72-team field. Because the new Division I teams are among the bottom of the now 363 teams in power ratings, the four new seeds should be bottom seeds. How about making the #15 and #16 seeds the bottom 16 automatic qualifiers in the Dance? That means there woud be eight, 15-seeds and eight, 16-seeds. All 15’s and 16’s would begin the tournament in a First 16 Round. The tournament could keep the Dayton site for half the games and maybe use Denver for the other half.

This would eliminate the First Four games for the bottom at-large teams, but there would now be more spots for the at-large.

This would also suffice in placing a power conference team that pulls off a bunch of upsets to win their conference tournament. A team that goes 10-21 in the regular season and then wins four games in four days to earn an automatic bid at 14-21 could now be placed in one of those 15-seeds as one of the weakest automatic qualifiers.

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Thursday, January 5, 2023

Home	Visitor	Spread
UMBC	Albany	9.4
Holy Cross	American	-8.1
South Alabama	Arkansas St.	9.6
Loyola (MD)	Army	0.7
Vermont	Bryant	3.7
Loyola Marymount	BYU	-0.1
Cal St. Bakersfield	Cal Poly	1.6
UC Riverside	Cal St. Fullerton	6.4
Florida Int’l.	Charlotte	-8.0
Wichita St.	Cincinnati	-1.3
Appalachian St.	Coastal Carolina	3.5
St. Thomas	Denver	6.4
Towson	Drexel	5.2
Tennessee Tech	Eastern Illinois	3.4
Central Arkansas	Eastern Kentucky	-4.4
St. Francis (NY)	Fairleigh Dickinson	1.2
Austin Peay	Florida Gulf Coast	-5.2
Louisiana Monroe	Georgia St.	-1.9
San Francisco	Gonzaga	-10.0
Sam Houston St.	Grand Canyon	6.1
Purdue Ft. Wayne	Green Bay	20.0
UC San Diego	Hawaii	-6.5
Hampton	Hofstra	-10.6
Southeastern Louisiana	Houston Christian	9.8
Iowa	Indiana	0.1
Stetson	Jacksonville	-0.6
Liberty	Jacksonville St.	12.8
North Florida	Kennesaw St.	0.5
Boston U.	Lafayette	4.1
New Orleans	Lamar	6.1
Bucknell	Lehigh	7.5
Cal St. Northridge	Long Beach St.	-4.3
Central Connecticut St.	Long Island	8.9
Rice	Louisiana Tech	1.0
UMass Lowell	Maine	12.6
Georgia Southern	Marshall	-7.4
Rutgers	Maryland	5.8
UTSA	Middle Tennessee	-9.3
Cleveland St.	Milwaukee	4.8
Northern Arizona	Montana	-3.0
Northern Colorado	Montana St.	-2.6
Colgate	Navy	6.7
Binghamton	New Hampshire	-0.8
Texas A&M Commerce	Nicholls St.	-2.2
Lipscomb	North Alabama	6.3
Western Kentucky	North Texas	-4.2
William & Mary	Northeastern	0.4
McNeese St.	Northwestern St.	-3.4
Troy	Old Dominion	4.3
Western Illinois	Omaha	4.1
Colorado	Oregon	2.2
Utah	Oregon St.	16.4
San Diego	Pacific	7.3
Eastern Washington	Portland St.	5.4
Ohio St.	Purdue	2.2
Bellarmine	Queens	-0.7
Youngstown St.	Robert Morris	8.1
Idaho	Sacramento St.	-1.8
Merrimack	Sacred Heart	0.3
Pepperdine	Santa Clara	-1.2
UT Rio Grande Valley	Seattle	-7.1
Houston	SMU	22.4
North Dakota	South Dakota	-1.7
North Dakota St.	South Dakota St.	-2.2
UT Martin	Southeast Missouri St.	1.5
Morehead St.	Southern Indiana	1.5
Louisiana	Southern Miss.	1.2
Tarleton St.	Southern Utah	0.3
Monmouth	Stony Brook	-2.6
SIU Edwardsville	Tennessee St.	7.5
James Madison	Texas St.	14.8
Florida Atlantic	UAB	2.6
UC Davis	UC Irvine	-3.7
UCLA	USC	14.1
Cal Baptist	Utah Tech	3.4
UT Arlington	Utah Valley	-7.4
Stonehill	Wagner	-0.3
Arizona	Washington	17.7
Arizona St.	Washington St.	5.1

PiRate Ratings NFL For Week 18–January 7-8, 2023

Margins

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Atlanta	Tampa Bay	-3.5	-2.5	-2.6
Buffalo	New England	8.5	8.3	8.0
Chicago	Minnesota	-6.1	-5.8	-6.3
Cincinnati	Baltimore	5.4	6.1	6.8
Green Bay	Detroit	7.3	6.2	6.3
Indianapolis	Houston	4.6	3.3	3.7
Jacksonville	Tennessee	9.8	10.9	11.3
Miami	N.Y. Jets	4.6	4.2	4.3
New Orleans	Carolina	6.6	5.4	5.8
Philadelphia	N.Y. Giants	9.8	8.1	7.8
Pittsburgh	Cleveland	1.9	2.7	2.8
Washington	Dallas	-8.5	-8.8	-9.1
Denver	LA Chargers	-2.0	-2.2	-3.2
Las Vegas	Kansas City	-7.5	-7.0	-6.7
San Francisco	Arizona	11.3	11.8	12.5
Seattle	LA Rams	3.1	3.6	4.5

Totals

Home	Visitor	Total
Atlanta	Tampa Bay	44.5
Buffalo	New England	42.5
Chicago	Minnesota	49
Cincinnati	Baltimore	42.5
Green Bay	Detroit	49.5
Indianapolis	Houston	39.5
Jacksonville	Tennessee	41.5
Miami	N.Y. Jets	41
New Orleans	Carolina	41
Philadelphia	N.Y. Giants	46
Pittsburgh	Cleveland	39.5
Washington	Dallas	44.5
Denver	LA Chargers	41
Las Vegas	Kansas City	55
San Francisco	Arizona	44
Seattle	LA Rams	42.5

Week 18 PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Buffalo	108.8	108.5	108.3	108.5	23	12-3
New England	103.3	103.1	103.3	103.2	19.5	8-8
Miami	100.3	100.3	99.9	100.2	23.5	8-8
N.Y. Jets	98.7	99.1	98.7	98.8	17.5	7-9
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Cincinnati	105.9	106.1	106.6	106.2	25.5	11-4
Baltimore	102.6	102.0	101.8	102.1	17	10-6
Cleveland	100.2	99.7	100.0	100.0	21	7-9
Pittsburgh	99.6	99.9	100.3	99.9	18.5	8-8
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Jacksonville	101.9	103.0	103.1	102.7	23	8-8
Tennessee	95.1	95.1	94.8	95.0	18.5	7-9
Indianapolis	92.7	92.5	92.3	92.5	20	4-11-1
Houston	89.6	90.7	90.2	90.1	19.5	2-13-1
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	109.0	108.5	108.0	108.5	29	13-3
LA Chargers	101.3	102.1	102.0	101.8	24.5	10-6
Las Vegas	99.5	99.5	99.3	99.4	26	6-10
Denver	97.3	97.9	96.8	97.3	16.5	4-12
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	106.9	106.7	107.1	106.9	26.5	12-4
Philadelphia	106.1	105.4	105.4	105.6	25.5	13-3
N.Y. Giants	97.4	98.3	98.6	98.1	20.5	9-6-1
Washington	95.9	95.3	95.5	95.6	18	7-8-1
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Green Bay	103.6	103.1	103.6	103.4	23	8-8
Detroit	99.3	100.0	100.3	99.9	26.5	8-8
Minnesota	99.3	99.1	99.3	99.2	27.5	12-4
Chicago	91.1	91.3	90.9	91.1	21.5	3-13
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	101.9	101.0	101.5	101.5	18.5	7-9
Tampa Bay	100.2	99.5	99.5	99.7	21.5	8-8
Carolina	97.3	97.6	97.7	97.5	22.5	6-10
Atlanta	95.2	95.5	95.4	95.3	23	6-10
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
San Francisco	104.7	105.0	105.5	105.0	20.5	12-4
Seattle	99.3	99.4	100.0	99.6	22	8-8
LA Rams	99.3	98.8	98.5	98.9	20.5	5-11
Arizona	96.4	96.2	95.9	96.2	23.5	4-12

Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1	Kansas City
2	Cincinnati
3	Buffalo
4	Jacksonville
5	LA Chargers
6	Baltimore
7	New England
NFC Seeding
1	San Francisco
2	Dallas
3	Minnesota
4	Tampa Bay
5	Philadelphia
6	New York Giants
7	Green Bay

Wildcard Round
New England over Cincinnati
Baltimore over Buffalo
Jacksonville over LA Chargers
Green Bay over Dallas
N.Y. Giants over Minnesota
Tampa Bay over Philadelphia
Divisional Round
Kansas City over New England
Jacksonville over Baltimore
San Francisco over Green Bay
Tampa Bay over N.Y. Giants
Conference Championship
Kansas City over Jacksonville
San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Super Bowl 57 (Glendale, AZ)
Kansas City over San Francisco

NFL Notice

The unfortunate event that took place in Cincinnati last night in the Monday Night Football game has affected the PiRate Ratings’ updating procedure. The game has now officially been canceled for this week, meaning the next NFL games will take place Saturday in Week 18.

The PiRate Ratings are formulated before the season with certain constants factored in the algorithms, and altering the schedule with two teams not playing has brought me to change the three ratings. The problem is in order to do so, I have to backdate the ratings to the last week of scheduled byes and recalculate the ratings to include an extra bye for Cincinnati and Buffalo.

During the Covid schedule changes, the games were canceled or the schedule was changed before any games were played, so it was easier to calculate new spreads, because the teams had not played. Having to calculate new spreads based on 30 teams playing and two not playing creates a logistical pile of work, and thus the ratings will not be available until late tonight or early tomorrow.

The PiRates pray for a complete recovery for Damar Hamlin. All of us were watching the game live when it happened, and there were tears in all of our eyes. I, the PiRate Captain, have had a difficult time dealing with the passing of the Great Pirate, Mike Leach. Earlier in the day, seeing the Mississippi State football helmets in the Reliaquest Bowl was quite an emotional event. This also comes on the heels of the unfortunate death of an Iowa Hawkeye linebacker Jack Campbell’s grandfather being killed here in Nashville when he was struck by a van near Vanderbilt University while visiting for the Music City Bowl.

Both the cities of Buffalo and Cincinnati have their share of news-breaking fatalities. In Buffalo, in the past year, there has been a tragic mass killing and multiple weather-related deaths. In Cincinnati, it is from the past, as there was a major catastrophe of ticket-holders being crushed to death trying to get choice general admission seats at a Who concert at Riverfront Coliseum in 1979. And in another event where I was watching live on TV, on the opening day of the 1996 Major League Baseball season at Riverfront Stadium, home plate umpire John McSherry attempted to walk to the backstop trying to signal for help, and then he free fell to the ground similar to the way Hamlin fell last night. Efforts to revive him with conventional CPR were unsuccessful.

The hope is that the AED device that restarted Hamlin’s heart last night was able to do so before his brain was robbed of oxygen too long.

I am trained in CPR and other Civil Defense first aid. It is easy enough to learn the basics, including how to save a choking victim, how to save a drowning victim, and even how to deliver a baby in an emergency situation. If you are reading this, please consider learning these basics. Let’s hope that Mr. Hamlin recovers, and the nation becomes a better place because people took the initiative to learn first aid.

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, January 1, 2023

Home	Visitor	Spread
Canisius	Mount St. Mary’s	0.2
Dartmouth	Cornell	-7.2
DePaul	Providence	-4.3
Evansville	Murray St.	-6.1
Fairfield	Siena	-2.5
Georgetown	Butler	-3.0
Iona	Saint Peter’s	17.3
Manhattan	Quinnipiac	-5.7
Michigan	Maryland	-2.0
Missouri St.	Drake	0.2
Northwestern	Ohio St.	-1.8
Penn St.	Iowa	1.5
SMU	Tulsa	6.8
Southern Illinois	Belmont	3.5
Temple	Cincinnati	-3.3
Tulane	Memphis	-5.1
UMBC	Vermont	-0.5
Valparaiso	Indiana St.	-7.0
Washington	UCLA	-11.4
Washington St.	USC	1.6

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Thursday, December 29, 2022

Thursday, December 29, 2022
Home	Visitor	Spread
Bellarmine	Liberty	-6.5
Butler	Providence	1.8
Coastal Carolina	Louisiana	-1.5
Cal Poly	Cal St. Northridge	4.1
California	Utah	-10.6
Charleston	Hampton	19.0
Charlotte	Middle Tennessee	3.7
Cincinnati	Tulane	6.6
Cornell	Binghamton	14.8
Cal St. Fullerton	UC Santa Barbara	-3.6
Delaware	Hofstra	-0.9
Denver	UMKC	2.9
DePaul	Georgetown	5.2
Detroit	Green Bay	15.2
Drake	Valparaiso	15.4
Drexel	Elon	12.4
E. Illinois	Lindenwood	3.4
Fairleigh Dickinson	Merrimack	4.1
Furman	VMI	15.5
Georgia Southern	South Alabama	-3.1
Gardner Webb	Charleston Southern	10.3
Georgia St.	James Madison	-8.8
Grand Canyon	Cal Baptist	6.5
Howard	La Salle	0.2
Idaho St.	N. Arizona	-0.7
Illinois	Bethune Cookman	28.6
Indiana St.	Evansville	13.3
Louisiana Tech	UTSA	12.3
Long Beach St.	UC San Diego	9.4
Little Rock	UT Martin	-1.4
Long Island	Wagner	-7.2
Longwood	High Point	5.8
Marshall	Appalachian St.	10.3
Maryland	UMBC	19.4
Memphis	South Florida	16.0
Michigan	Central Michigan	20.3
Montana	Eastern Washington	3.3
Montana St.	Idaho	10.9
Murray St.	Southern Illinois	-0.5
Northern Kentucky	Wright St.	1.1
Omaha	Oral Roberts	-11.5
Nebraska	Iowa	-4.1
North Texas	Florida Atlantic	0.4
Northeastern	North Carolina A&T	3.9
Northwestern	Brown	16.0
Oakland	Milwaukee	-1.4
Ohio St.	Alabama A&M	27.4
Old Dominion	Arkansas St.	10.6
Pacific	BYU	-7.4
Penn St.	Delaware St.	30.8
Portland	Loyola Marymount	1.6
Presbyterian	Campbell	-2.8
Purdue	Florida A&M	34.1
Queens	Austin Peay	6.3
Robert Morris	Purdue Ft. Wayne	-2.8
South Dakota St.	Western Illinois	7.2
Sacred Heart	Stonehill	3.8
Saint Mary’s	San Diego	16.4
Santa Clara	San Francisco	0.7
USC Upstate	Winthrop	-1.9
Stephen F. Austin	Abilene Christian	3.0
SIU-Edwardsville	Tennessee Tech	10.0
Southern Indiana	Southeast Missouri St.	3.6
Southern Miss.	Troy	3.3
South Dakota	St. Thomas	-2.1
St. Francis PA	Central Connecticut	2.7
Stanford	Colorado	1.9
Tarleton St.	UT Arlington	7.5
Tennessee St.	Morehead St.	2.2
Texas St.	Louisiana Monroe	9.3
The Citadel	Chattanooga	-6.7
UAB	UTEP	15.8
UC Riverside	Cal St. Bakersfield	10.0
UNC Asheville	Radford	2.3
Utah Tech	UT Rio Grande Valley	9.4
Utah Valley	Sam Houston	-1.4
Western Carolina	UNC Greensboro	-3.9
Western Kentucky	Rice	5.5
Weber St.	Northern Colorado	2.9
Wofford	ETSU	8.0
Youngstown St.	Cleveland St.	7.0