The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 16, 2017

Red, White, and Blue Ratings for Friday’s NCAA Tournament Games

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:39 am

NCAA Tournament–Friday, March 17, 2017

Team Team Red White Blue
Michigan Oklahoma St. -1 3 1
Baylor New Mexico St. 11 12 13
Arkansas Seton Hall 2 1 -1
Oregon Iona 11 12 10
Louisville Jacksonville St. 18 18 17
SMU USC 8 8 4
North Carolina Texas Southern 22 20 19
Creighton Rhode Island 4 1 2
Kansas UC-Davis 22 19 18
Dayton Wichita St. -7 -5 -1
Duke Troy 15 16 14
Cincinnati Kansas St. 2 5 2
Miami (Fla.) Michigan St. 1 2 -2
Kentucky Northern Kentucky 19 18 13
South Carolina Marquette 1 -1 1
UCLA Kent St. 16 14 10

 

TV Schedule

Time (EDT) Network Team vs. Team
12:15 PM CBS Michigan vs. Oklahoma St.
12:40 PM truTV Baylor vs. New Mexico St.
1:30 PM TNT Arkansas vs. Seton Hall
2:00 PM TBS Oregon vs. Iona
2:45 PM CBS Louisville vs. Jacksonville St.
3:10 PM truTV SMU vs. USC
4:00 PM TNT North Carolina vs. Texas Southern
4:30 PM TBS Creighton vs. Rhode Island
6:50 PM TNT Kansas vs. UC-Davis
7:10 PM CBS Dayton vs. Wichita St.
7:20 PM TBS Duke vs. Troy
7:27 PM truTV Cincinnati vs. Kansas St.
9:20 PM TNT Miami (Fla.) vs. Michigan St.
9:40 PM CBS Kentucky vs. Northern Kentucky
9:50 PM TBS South Carolina vs. Marquette
9:57 PM truTV UCLA vs. Kent St.

 

 

 

September 28, 2016

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–September 29-October 3, 2016

First Big Payday (even if it wasn’t real)

After failing miserably in the opening two weeks, and then failing minimally in week three, the PiRates reaped quite an imaginary booty of riches last week when our money line parlays returned 75% on investment. Thanks to winning big on the NFL Parlay of Indianapolis, Oakland, and Dallas, and to the nice college parlay of Arizona State, Cincinnati, Minnesota, and Memphis, our imaginary $400 wagered returned us $699 for a profit of $299 and ROI of 75%.
For the season, we are still in the hole to the tune of $193 on $1,600 wagered and an ROI of -12%. Let’s hope that like last year, once we began to win, we won consistently every week. On the other hand, one winning week out of four, even if it was big, is not enough to convince us that we are on to something again this year.

In fact, this week’s games do not excite us very much. We had to peruse the odds carefully multiple times just to come up with three parlays. At least, these parlays go off at such odds that winning just one of any of these three would make our week profitable. The glass half-empty types, which represents 95% of the players, might say that the odds on these three games are so stacked against us that there is no way any of them could win. Since our wagers are imaginary, we can see that our glass is half-full with liquids about to be poured to fill it up. In other words, we don’t feel any stress going with these three parlays this week.

1. College Parlay at +218
Ohio U over Miami of Ohio
Louisiana-Lafayette over New Mexico State
Iowa over Northwestern

You may notice that a high percentage of our college plays is made in games involving teams outside the Power Five. It is our opinion that the odds can be off more in these Group of Five games than in games where the nations’ sports eyes are more focused. Whereas games like Michigan and Wisconsin are perused carefully by the betting public, games from the MAC or Sun Belt don’t see the same amount of action, and thus we feel like the odds are a little bit off. UL-Lafayette is properly favored over New Mexico State, but we think they should be favored by more than what the line says. We feel the same way about Ohio over Miami. The Iowa-Northwestern line is about where we feel it should be, but in this case, we think the Hawkeyes have a strong chance of winning and completing the triplet parlay for a $318 return on $100 invested.

2. College Parlay at +273
Tennessee over Georgia
Akron over Kent St.
Old Dominion over Charlotte
Florida over Vanderbilt

This parlay presents us with three separate psychologies, as well as the belief that the favorites are just plain better than the underdogs and should win without any added psychologies. The public expects Tennessee to venture between the hedges and come out flat, while Georgia rebounds in a big way after losing to Ole Miss by more than 30. We feel that Georgia is just much weaker than normal this year, and the loss in Oxford was not an anamoly. The talent in Athens is just not what it normally has been in typical years. Thus, we believe that the Volunteers will win by up to two touchdowns in this game.

The Akron and Old Dominion games are further examples of Group of Five game odds being off. We believe the two favorites should be more heavily favored and choose to take advantage of the odds being favored in our direction for higher potential payouts.

The Florida-Vanderbilt game is the polar opposite of the Tennessee-Georgia game in one way, and the exact same thing in the other way. Florida had the Tennessee game secured by halftime and then saw an orange tornado vanquish their Gator bite in the second half. They can ill afford to lose two games in a row in the Volunteer State. Vanderbilt won a hard-fought overtime game at Western Kentucky last week after the Hilltoppers squandered opportunities to put the game away.

Last year, a shanked punt allowed Florida to kick a field goal and win a sloppy game 9-7 in the Swamp. The public is looking at this game and believes this one could be similar with a possible upset. However, this Vanderbilt team lacks the defense that last year’s team had. In fact, it is one of the weakest among the Power Five teams, and Florida should play four quarters similar to how they played the first two in Knoxville last week.

3. NFL Parlay at +331
Cincinnati over Miami
Houston over Tennessee
Baltimore over Oakland
Pittsburgh over Kansas City

The Dolphins had to go to overtime to beat a lowly Browns’ team using a third string quarterback. Now, they must face Cincinnati on Thursday night on national television after the Bengals dropped back-to-back games against two tough teams. Cinti should win by 10 or more.

Houston can take a commanding lead in the AFC South this week by winning this game and hoping Jacksonville can dispense of Indianapolis. The Texans had an extra three days to prepare for a team they have owned in recent years. Tennessee has a potentially potent offense hiding behind an ineffective smashmouth offense. When Marcus Mariota is forced into a quick score situation, he guides the Titans like he did at Oregon. But, the Titans refuse to use this gameplan until all hope is lost or close to lost. Expect Houston to shoot out to a double-digit lead, and then when the Titans have to play catch-up, they will make the game closer but not close enough.

Baltimore looks to begin the season at 4-0 as they host Oakland. The Raiders are having to make a 2,000-mile trip for the second week in a row, and the Raiders may show signs of fatigue after having to play last week in the oppressive heat with temperatures in the 90’s. We believe the Raiders will be just a tad slow to react on defense and not quite as explosive on offense, leading to a Ravens’ win.

The Steelers are in the same boat as the Texans this week. Following an embarrassing loss in which they were manhandled by Philly, look for Pittsburgh to bounce back with their best performance of the season.

September 21, 2016

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–September 22-26, 2016

After improving a bit last week and losing only $23 of our imaginary bank roll, we have decided to expand our plays to include a couple of underdogs we believe can win outright. Thus, two of our four chosen plays this week will return big payoffs of imaginary cash should they come through with winners.
First, we must take care of official business. Last week, we played five parlays, winning $277 and losing $300. For the year, we have now wagered $1,200 in imaginary money, and have a loss of $442 to date, meaning still no return on our unreal investment. We warned you that Money Line Parlays can be really tough, but we love to play them, especially since it costs us nothing.
Here are our picks for this week. Remember, don’t actually wager on these. This is just for fun, and we would never put a dime of real money on these plays, even if it returned over 40% on investment last year. It’s doing squat so far this year.

1. College Parlay at +450
Army over Buffalo
Tulane over Louisiana-Lafayette
Arkansas over Texas A&M

Arkansas is the underdog in this parlay and the reason it offers a return of 4.5 times the amount invested. The Razorbacks have been slowly developing a balanced offense with an improving defense. Winning at TCU is enough to show us that the Hogs are on the way back to great things. Texas A&M has struggled in their two wins over quality opposition, and we believe the Aggies are due for continued struggles.

Army is off to a great start, and the Black Knights now face a Buffalo team that has already lost to a FCS opponent. This could be the type of game that allows the Cadets to play their plebes. Coach Jeff Monken learned well from his mentor Paul Johnson, and the Army rushing attack looks like it could move the ball on most FBS teams this year. They should light up the scoreboard against Buffalo.

Tulane is also running the option under first year coach Willie Fritz. Fritz does not have all the pieces in place yet in New Orleans, but with his Texas ties, it is only a matter of time until the Green Wave are winning once again. For now, TU has an exceptional defense with a clock-consuming offense that allows that defense to stay fresh and strong enough to hold ULL to 10 points, which is few enough that we see the olive green and blue winning this week.

2. College Parlay at +126
Arizona St. over California
Cincinnati over Miami (O)
Minnesota over Colorado St.
Memphis over Bowling Green

Arizona State had to rally in the fourth quarter to win at UTSA, while Cal pulled off a nice home upset of Texas. With the Golden Bears playing in the heat in Tempe, and with ASU’s players more focused, we believe Todd Graham’s Sun Devils will play their best game of the season to date, while Cal has trouble with the heat and the speed of the ASU receivers.

Cincinnati should beat Miami of Ohio by 3 touchdowns, but even if the in-state rival underdogs play their best possible and the Bearcats stink up the joint, Cinti should win by at least 10.

Minnesota is a team flying under the radar. They win, but they don’t win convincingly and don’t win with flashy play. The offense is better than most think, and the defense is not shabby. This Gophers team is not yet the equivalent of the Sandy Stephens’ teams of the early 1960’s, but it could be as good as any in Minneapolis since Laurence Maroney and Bryan Capito were moving the pigskin.

This year’s Memphis team has not really been challenged yet, and Bowling Green is not the team to bring that challenge. The Tigers should have little problem disposing of the Falcons, as this is a different BGU team without Dino Babers at the controls.

3. NFL Parlay at +373
Indianapolis over San Diego
Oakland over Tennessee
Dallas over Chicago

Oakland is the second underdog we will use in our parlays this week. The Raiders’ starting offensive and defensive lines manhandled the Titans starting offensive and defensive lines in the preseason game. Preseason games don’t reveal a lot, but when you see one front consistently moving the opposing front in the same direction, it is a good bet that they will do so no matter the importance of the game. We believe the Raiders will score more points than the Titans are capable of scoring, and thus we go with the underdog.

Indianapolis faces a must-win scenario at home. Even with a sore Andrew Luck, we believe the Colts will find a way to eke out a small win. If not, then the AFC West is going to be one incredible 4-team race.

Dallas should handle the Bears with relative ease. Without Jay Cutler, Chicago will have to play conservatively and hope they can rattle Dak Prescott. We believe that the nifty rookie will continue to play brilliantly week after week and could be the odds-on favorite to win the Rookie of the Year Award.

4. NFL Parlay at +143
Miami over Cleveland
New York Giants over Washington
Carolina over Minnesota

If Cleveland couldn’t win with RGIII and John McCown at quarterback, then how can they win with Cody Kessler, who wasn’t good enough to make the active roster when all the QBs were healthy. Miami is not playoff worthy at this point, but Adam Gase can design a game plan that will make Kessler’s debut a nightmare.

The Giants look like the Giants of old when Eli Manning had multiple quality receivers to throw to, and the defense came up with big stops. Well, Manning has multiple quality receivers again, and the defense is coming up with big stops. NY could be looking at a season where they are playing at home in January.

The Carolina-Minnesota match worried us for hours today. The Vikings will have to go without Adrian Peterson, but their defense looks as strong as it has looked since the days of Eller, Page, and company. Meanwhile, there is unrest in Charlotte, and it could carry over to the team. We decided that in the end, we would go with the home team to capitalize on the weakened running game and thus to slow down Sam Bradford.

August 19, 2016

2016 American Athletic Conference Football Preview

Today, we conclude with our previews of the Group of 5 conferences and throw in the four independents to boot. The American Athletic Conference produced the Group of 5 at-large representative to the New Year’s 6 Bowls last year. Houston represented the little brothers well last year, when the Cougars bested Florida State in the Peach Bowl last year.

Houston should be right in the thick of the AAC and NY6 Bowl race this year, but we believe that another league member is talented enough to take this year’s automatic NY6 Bowl bid, and if they can pull off one upset, maybe even challenge for the #4 seed in the playoffs.

Coach Willie Taggart has his South Florida team ready to make a run toward an undefeated season this year. The Bulls must pull off the upset against Florida State, but USF gets to host the Seminoles in that game a week after FSU must face Louisville on the road.

USF returns an exceptional dual threat quarterback in Quinton Flowers. Flowers topped 1,000 yards rushing (not counting QB sacks, or if NFL statistic rules were used) last year, while averaging more than 8 yards per passing attempt. Seven of his top eight targets from last year return to give the Bulls an improved passing attack. That should allow multi-talented running back Marlon Mack to see less eight-man defensive fronts and give him a chance to improve on his 1,381 rushing yards from a year ago.

Defensively, USF 10 of their top dozen tacklers from a year ago, including potential All-American Deatrick Nichols as a cover cornerback. USF should trim about 5 points and 30-50 total yards off what the defense allowed last year, and that should give the Bulls a fighting chance to conquer that one great matador in their path to a perfect season.

Houston is still the class of the West Division. The Cougars came within an upset loss against Connecticut in November last year of possibly getting into the Playoff picture. Second year head coach Tom Herman proved to be a talented protege of his mentor Urban Meyer, as he guided the Cougars to a 13-1 season. Only a few questions on the defensive side keep us from making UH our clear-cut favorite for the NY6 Bowl, but they only trail USF by a tiny margin as the season begins. What hurts the Cougars is an opening game against Oklahoma at NRG Stadium, and we cannot see the Cougars’ defense being ready to stop the Sooners’ offense. Starting 0-1, Houston will be behind the eight-ball all season. Road games against Cincinnati, Navy, and Memphis may be more than UH can handle, so the Cougars could be a two-loss team heading into the AAC Championship Game.

Here is how the Media picked this year’s AAC race.

American Athletic Conference–East Division
# Team 1st Pl. Total Champ.
1 South Florida 15 164 2
2 Temple 9 144 1
3 Cincinnati 6 130  
4 Connecticut 0 89  
5 East Carolina 0 55  
6 Central Florida 0 48  
         
American Athletic Conference–West Division
# Team 1st Pl. Total Champ.
1 Houston 30 180 27
2 Navy 0 128  
3 Memphis 0 124  
4 Tulsa 0 92  
5 SMU 0 65  
6 Tulane 0 41  

And, here are how our PiRates rate the teams to begin the 2016 season.

American Athletic Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 108.3 105.7 109.5 107.8
Cincinnati 101.5 102.7 102.5 102.3
Temple 102.2 101.2 103.1 102.2
Connecticut 98.3 96.1 98.6 97.7
East Carolina 91.6 94.6 91.7 92.6
Central Florida 85.9 88.6 85.9 86.8
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 110.1 108.3 111.9 110.1
Tulsa 99.7 102.2 100.4 100.8
Memphis 102.7 97.8 100.8 100.5
Navy 99.2 99.0 98.6 99.0
SMU 93.7 92.1 93.2 93.0
Tulane 82.2 86.1 82.0 83.4
         
AAC Averages 98.0 97.9 98.2 98.0

The PiRate Ratings are meant to be used only to predict the outcomes of the next week of games, and are not best used to predict beyond that point.  Because we use algorithms that include automatic adjustments by each team based on depth and experience, two different teams can win by the exact score we predict, and their new ratings might change differently.

 

Thus, using our ratings to predict won-loss records and bowl projections is a bit comical, but then we all need some laughs every now and then.  So, laugh away at our projected standings and bowls.

American Athletic Conference Projected Standings
Team Conference Overall Bowl
East Division      
South Florida 8-0 12-1 * Cotton–NY6
Temple 6-2 9-3 Military
Cincinnati 4-4 6-6 Birmingham
Connecticut 3-5 4-8  
East Carolina 2-6 3-9  
Central Florida 1-7 2-10  
       
Team Conference Overall Bowl
West Division      
Houston 8-0 10-3 St. Petersburg
Navy 6-2 8-4 Armed Forces
Tulsa 5-3 8-4 Miami Beach
Memphis 4-4 7-5 Bahamas
SMU 1-7 3-9  
Tulane 0-8 3-9  
       
* South Florida to win AAC Title and automatic NY 6 Bowl Bid

Coming Later Today–A look at the four independents.

 

 

 

January 8, 2016

Computer Simulations: 2016 NFL Playoffs–Wildcard Round

Earlier today, we placed all the pertinent statistics, the weather forecasts, and the home field advantages into the good old computer simulator, and it spit out 100 simulations of each NFL game for the Wildcard Weekend.  When we saw the results, we had to make sure we had not made any mistakes in the input, because the output for the four games was very close to identical.

 

After we realized there had been no mistakes, we were left with the thought that all four games are about equal in competitive value.  There were four clear favorites, but the average scores and standard deviations of the four games tells us that these games should all be exciting.  Weather could play a factor in Minneapolis and in Cincinnati.

All Games will be broadcast on the radio over the Westwood One Radio Network.  To find your local affiliate, follow the link below:

http://westwoodonesports.com/stations/

Saturday, January 9, 2016

Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) at Houston Texans (9-7)

Kickoff: 4:35 PM EST

TV: ESPN

Las Vegas Line: Kansas City by 3 to 3 1/2

Totals: 40 to 41

Money Line Avg: Kansas City -170  Houston +150

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Kansas City by 1.7

Mean: Kansas City by 0.9

Bias: Kansas City by 0.5

 

100 Simulations

Kansas City Wins: 60

Houston Wins: 40

Avg. Score: Kansas City 21.0  Houston 17.3

St Deviation: 8.3

Outlier KC win: 34-10

Outlier Hou win: 27-6

 

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (12-4)

Kickoff: 8:15 PM EST

TV: CBS

Las Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 2 1/2 to 3

Totals: 45 1/2 to 46 1/2

Money Line Avg. Pittsburgh -150  Cincinnati +130

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Cincinnati by 2.0

Mean: Cincinnati by 2.3

Bias: Cincinnati by 2.6

 

100 Simulations

Pittsburgh wins: 59

Cincinnati wins: 41

Avg. Score: Pittsburgh 24.5  Cincinnati 22.6

St. Deviation: 8.7

Outlier Pit win: 37-14

Outlier Cin win: 28-9

 

Sunday, January 10, 2016

Seattle Seahawks (10-6) at Minnesota Vikings (11-5)

Kickoff: 1:05 PM EST

TV: NBC

Las Vegas Line: Seattle by 4 1/2 to 5 1/2

Totals: 39 1/2 to 40

Money Line Avg.: Seattle -230  Minnesota +190

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Seattle by 3.0

Mean: Seattle by 2.5

Bias: Seattle by 0.4

 

100 Simulations

Seattle wins 61

Minnesota wins 39

Avg. Score: Seattle 24.7  Minnesota 21.7

St. Deviation: 8.8

Outlier Sea win: 41-14

Outlier Min win: 28-12

 

Green Bay Packers (10-6) at Washington Redskins (9-7)

Kickoff: 4:40 PM EST

TV: Fox

Las Vegas Line: Pick to Washington by 1

Totals: 45 to 45 1/2

Money Line Avg.: Washington -110  Green Bay -110

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Green Bay by 1.1

Mean: Washington by 0.2

Bias: Washington by 1.2

 

100 Simulations

Green Bay wins: 61

Washington wins: 39

Avg. Score: Green Bay 25.9  Washington 22.9

St Deviation: 7.3

Outlier GB win: 34-17

Outlier Was win: 27-16

January 5, 2016

PiRate Ratings NFL Wildcard Round

The 2016 NFL Playoffs on paper look like the most competitive in many years.  In the AFC, there is no clear cut winner, and it would not shock us at all if almost every game on this side was close.

 

The NFC appeared to have been top heavy with the top two seeds clearly better than the rest, but in the final two weeks, Carolina and Arizona appeared to be having some issues, while Minnesota and Seattle looked to be hitting their peaks.  The Washington Redskins closed on a nice streak as well, and only the Green Bay Packers really limped into the playoffs.

 

Final Regular Season NFL PiRate Ratings
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Washington 99.7 100.4 101.6 100.6 9-7-0 388 379
Philadelphia 98.0 97.8 98.3 98.0 7-9-0 377 430
N.Y. Giants 98.4 97.8 97.4 97.9 6-10-0 420 442
Dallas 97.8 96.3 96.0 96.7 4-12-0 275 374
               
North PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Minnesota 105.4 105.5 108.2 106.4 11-5-0 365 302
Green Bay 103.8 103.2 103.4 103.5 10-6-0 368 323
Detroit 100.1 99.4 100.1 99.9 7-9-0 358 400
Chicago 97.0 96.5 96.6 96.7 6-10-0 335 397
               
South PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Carolina 108.7 109.1 110.5 109.4 15-1-0 500 308
Atlanta 97.1 96.9 96.4 96.8 8-8-0 339 345
New Orleans 95.7 94.9 96.4 95.7 7-9-0 408 476
Tampa Bay 93.2 92.5 91.6 92.4 6-10-0 342 417
               
West PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Seattle 111.4 111.0 111.6 111.3 10-6-0 423 277
Arizona 109.8 109.7 111.0 110.2 13-3-0 489 313
St. Louis 96.8 97.5 97.5 97.3 7-9-0 280 330
San Francisco 94.2 93.0 93.9 93.7 5-11-0 238 387
               
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
New England 107.0 106.4 105.5 106.3 12-4-0 465 315
N. Y. Jets 102.4 103.1 102.8 102.8 10-6-0 387 314
Buffalo 101.2 101.8 101.4 101.5 8-8-0 379 359
Miami 96.5 96.3 95.4 96.1 6-10-0 310 389
               
North PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Pittsburgh 107.3 107.5 107.2 107.3 10-6-0 423 319
Cincinnati 106.8 107.3 107.3 107.1 12-4-0 419 279
Baltimore 98.3 97.6 97.3 97.7 5-11-0 328 401
Cleveland 92.5 92.0 92.5 92.3 3-13-0 278 432
               
South PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Houston 100.9 102.5 102.3 101.9 9-7-0 339 313
Indianapolis 95.6 95.8 95.3 95.6 8-8-0 333 408
Jacksonville 92.2 93.2 90.8 92.1 5-11-0 376 448
Tennessee 89.3 89.4 88.6 89.1 3-13-0 299 423
               
West PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Kansas City 105.6 106.4 105.8 105.9 11-5-0 405 287
Denver 103.9 103.6 103.8 103.8 12-4-0 355 296
San Diego 96.9 97.5 97.2 97.2 4-12-0 320 398
Oakland 96.5 98.1 96.5 97.0 7-9-0 359 399

 

The Playoff Teams Ratings

Current NFL Playoffs PiRate Ratings
NFC PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Seattle 111.4 111.0 111.6 111.3 10-6-0 423 277
Arizona 109.8 109.7 111.0 110.2 13-3-0 489 313
Carolina 108.7 109.1 110.5 109.4 15-1-0 500 308
Minnesota 105.4 105.5 108.2 106.4 11-5-0 365 302
Green Bay 103.8 103.2 103.4 103.5 10-6-0 368 323
Washington 99.7 100.4 101.6 100.6 9-7-0 388 379
               
AFC PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Pittsburgh 107.3 107.5 107.2 107.3 10-6-0 423 319
Cincinnati 106.8 107.3 107.3 107.1 12-4-0 419 279
New England 107.0 106.4 105.5 106.3 12-4-0 465 315
Kansas City 105.6 106.4 105.8 105.9 11-5-0 405 287
Denver 103.9 103.6 103.8 103.8 12-4-0 355 296
Houston 100.9 102.5 102.3 101.9 9-7-0 339 313

Note: Computer Simulations of the Wildcard Playoff Round will be published on Friday, January 8

This Week’s Games
         
Week Number: Wildcard Round      
Date of Games: January 9-10      
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Houston Kansas City -1.7 -0.9 -0.5
Cincinnati Pittsburgh 2.0 2.3 2.6
Minnesota Seattle -3.0 -2.5 -0.4
Washington Green Bay -1.1 0.2 1.2

December 29, 2015

NFL Preview For Week 17: January 3, 2016

Playoffs Simplified

If you have been to some of the big box sports sites, they have not made it easy to decipher their playoff possibilities.  If X wins and Y loses, but Z wins, then who gets the bye, or who is the wildcard?  We are going to simplify it for you and tell you the scenarios that are likely to happen and not give you this X must win, and then needs help from Y, Z, A, B, and 6 other teams junk.

 

A F C

5 teams have already qualified for the playoffs, well actually just 4, but we are going to eliminate the Indianapolis Colts from the discussion, because it is not going to happen–Indy is out of luck.  10 games have to go exactly right for the Colts to win, and a good amount would have to be upsets.  Houston has a 99.9% chance of being the AFC South Champion.  New England, Cincinnati, Denver, and Kansas City are also in the playoffs.

 

The one playoff spot left will go to the New York Jets if they win at Buffalo or the Pittsburgh Steelers lose at Cleveland.  Pittsburgh will be the last team in if they beat Cleveland, while the Bills also beat the Jets.

 

The Patriots will be the #1 seed with a win or Bronco loss.  A loss and Bronco win makes Denver #1.  Both teams have easily winnable games, with New England playing Miami and Denver playing San Diego.

 

The Cincinnati Bengals can clinch the #2 seed only if they beat Baltimore and Denver loses to San Diego, or if they lose to Baltimore, Denver loses to San Diego, and Kansas City beats Oakland.

 

Kansas City can still pass the Broncos if Denver loses to San Diego, while the Chiefs beat Oakland.   If Kansas City is the wildcard at 11-5, the Chiefs will be the #5 seed over an 11-5 Jets team, but if the Broncos become the wildcard at 11-5, an 11-5 Jets team would be the #5 seed.

 

N F C

The 6 playoff teams are set.  Carolina, Arizona, Green Bay, Washington, Minnesota, and Seattle are the playoff teams, but there are still some seedings to be determined.

 

At the top, if Carolina loses to Tampa Bay at home, and Arizona beats Seattle, the Cardinals jump ahead of the Panthers for the #1 seed.  It isn’t likely to happen, so figure Carolina at #1 and Arizona at #2.

 

Minnesota plays at Green Bay, and the winner will be the #3 seed, while the loser becomes the #5 seed.

 

Here is how we see the playoffs as of today:

NFL Playoff Projections
AFC SEED TEAM
1 New England
2 Denver
3 Cincinnati
4 Houston
5 Kansas City
6 New York Jets
     
NFC SEED TEAM
1 Carolina
2 Arizona
3 Green Bay
4 Washington
5 Minnesota
6 Seattle
     
Wildcard Playoff Round
New York Jets over Cincinnati
Kansas City over Houston
Seattle over Green Bay
Minnesota over Washington
 
Divisional Playoff Round
New York Jets over New England
Kansas City over Denver
Carolina over Seattle
Arizona over Minnesota
 
Conference Championship Round
Kansas City over New York Jets
Arizona over Carolina
 
Super Bowl 50
Arizona over Kansas City

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Washington 98.6 99.1 100.1 99.3 8-7-0 354 356
N.Y. Giants 99.0 98.7 98.6 98.8 6-9-0 390 407
Dallas 98.9 97.6 97.5 98.0 4-11-0 252 340
Philadelphia 97.4 96.9 97.1 97.1 6-9-0 342 400
               
North PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Minnesota 104.4 104.3 106.8 105.2 10-5-0 345 289
Green Bay 104.8 104.4 104.8 104.7 10-5-0 355 303
Detroit 99.9 99.0 99.5 99.5 6-9-0 334 380
Chicago 97.2 96.9 97.2 97.1 6-9-0 315 373
               
South PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Carolina 107.7 107.9 109.4 108.3 14-1-0 462 298
Atlanta 97.7 97.8 97.4 97.6 8-7-0 322 325
New Orleans 95.1 94.0 95.4 94.8 6-9-0 388 459
Tampa Bay 94.2 93.7 92.7 93.5 6-9-0 332 379
               
West PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Arizona 112.2 112.3 113.9 112.8 13-2-0 483 277
Seattle 109.0 108.4 108.7 108.7 9-6-0 387 271
St. Louis 96.8 97.6 97.5 97.3 7-8-0 264 311
San Francisco 94.2 92.9 93.9 93.7 4-11-0 219 371
               
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
New England 108.8 108.5 107.9 108.4 12-3-0 455 295
N. Y. Jets 102.6 103.4 103.2 103.1 10-5-0 370 292
Buffalo 101.0 101.5 101.0 101.2 7-8-0 357 342
Miami 94.7 94.2 93.0 94.0 5-10-0 290 379
               
North PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Cincinnati 106.9 107.6 107.8 107.4 11-4-0 395 263
Pittsburgh 107.2 107.2 106.9 107.1 9-6-0 395 307
Baltimore 98.2 97.3 96.8 97.4 5-10-0 312 377
Cleveland 92.6 92.3 92.8 92.6 3-12-0 266 404
               
South PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Houston 100.0 101.4 101.0 100.8 8-7-0 309 307
Indianapolis 95.8 96.1 95.7 95.9 7-8-0 303 384
Jacksonville 93.1 94.3 92.1 93.2 5-10-0 370 418
Tennessee 89.1 89.1 88.2 88.8 3-12-0 275 393
               
West PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Kansas City 105.9 106.8 106.4 106.4 10-5-0 382 270
Denver 104.0 103.8 104.0 103.9 11-4-0 328 276
San Diego 96.8 97.3 97.0 97.0 4-11-0 300 371
Oakland 96.2 97.7 95.9 96.6 7-8-0 342 376

 

This Week’s Games
         
Week Number: 17      
Date of Games: January 3      
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Buffalo NY Jets 0.9 0.6 0.3
Miami New England -11.1 -11.3 -11.9
Carolina Tampa Bay 16.0 16.7 19.2
Atlanta New Orleans 5.1 6.3 4.5
Cincinnati Baltimore 10.7 12.3 13.0
Cleveland Pittsburgh -12.6 -12.9 -12.1
Houston Jacksonville 9.9 10.1 11.9
Indianapolis Tennessee 9.7 10.0 10.5
Kansas City Oakland 12.7 12.1 13.5
Dallas Washington 3.3 1.5 0.4
NY Giants Philadelphia 3.6 3.8 3.5
Chicago Detroit -0.2 0.4 0.2
Green Bay Minnesota 2.9 2.6 0.5
Denver San Diego 10.2 9.5 10.0
Arizona Seattle 6.2 6.9 8.2
San Francisco St. Louis 0.4 -1.7 -0.6

December 8, 2015

NFL Preview For Week 14: December 10-14, 2015

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
N.Y. Giants 100.7 100.6 100.9 100.7 5-7-0 307 296
Philadelphia 100.1 99.8 100.5 100.1 5-7-0 278 302
Dallas 100.7 99.6 100.1 100.1 4-8-0 223 277
Washington 95.9 95.6 95.8 95.8 5-7-0 257 286
               
North PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Green Bay 105.2 104.3 104.5 104.7 8-4-0 289 238
Minnesota 100.2 99.4 101.4 100.3 8-4-0 238 232
Chicago 99.1 99.1 99.7 99.3 5-7-0 251 290
Detroit 99.7 98.6 98.7 99.0 4-8-0 253 315
               
South PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Carolina 107.6 107.6 108.6 107.9 12-0-0 373 243
Atlanta 97.0 96.5 96.2 96.6 6-6-0 279 257
Tampa Bay 96.0 96.5 95.9 96.1 6-6-0 271 298
New Orleans 93.6 91.8 93.4 92.9 4-8-0 299 380
               
West PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Arizona 109.3 109.1 110.4 109.6 10-2-0 382 232
Seattle 109.0 108.5 109.0 108.8 7-5-0 305 229
San Francisco 96.0 95.2 96.7 96.0 4-8-0 178 291
St. Louis 93.9 94.1 93.2 93.7 4-8-0 189 257
               
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
New England 108.6 108.2 107.6 108.1 10-2-0 375 247
Buffalo 101.8 102.9 102.5 102.4 6-6-0 296 278
N. Y. Jets 100.6 101.1 100.4 100.7 7-5-0 295 248
Miami 97.3 97.4 96.6 97.1 5-7-0 240 300
               
North PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Cincinnati 108.7 109.9 110.3 109.6 10-2-0 334 196
Pittsburgh 106.9 106.7 106.2 106.6 7-5-0 311 240
Baltimore 100.1 99.4 99.2 99.6 4-8-0 272 291
Cleveland 90.3 89.3 89.3 89.6 2-10-0 216 347
               
South PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Houston 98.6 99.9 99.2 99.2 6-6-0 253 264
Indianapolis 98.2 98.8 98.8 98.6 6-6-0 259 305
Jacksonville 91.9 93.9 91.6 92.5 4-8-0 275 341
Tennessee 91.8 92.1 91.6 91.8 3-9-0 245 296
               
West PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Kansas City 105.7 106.9 106.7 106.4 7-5-0 321 240
Denver 105.3 105.1 105.8 105.4 10-2-0 269 210
Oakland 95.2 97.1 94.8 95.7 5-7-0 284 314
San Diego 95.0 95.0 94.4 94.8 3-9-0 247 324

 

This Week’s Games
         
Week Number: 14      
Date of Games: December 10-14      
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Arizona Minnesota 12.1 12.7 12.0
Philadelphia Buffalo 0.8 -0.6 0.5
Cleveland San Francisco -2.7 -2.9 -4.4
St. Louis Detroit -3.3 -2.0 -3.0
Tampa Bay New Orleans 4.9 7.2 5.0
NY Jets Tennessee 11.3 11.5 11.3
Cincinnati Pittsburgh 3.8 5.2 6.1
Houston New England -7.0 -5.3 -5.4
Jacksonville Indianapolis -3.8 -2.4 -4.7
Kansas City San Diego 13.7 14.9 15.3
Chicago Washington 5.7 6.0 6.4
Carolina Atlanta 12.6 13.1 14.4
Denver Oakland 12.6 10.5 13.5
Green Bay Dallas 7.0 7.2 6.9
Baltimore Seattle -5.4 -5.6 -6.3
Miami NY Giants -0.9 -0.7 -1.8

 

N F L  Playoffs Roundup

If Season Ended Today
AFC
1 Denver
2 Cincinnati
3 New England
4 Indianapolis
5 Kansas City
6 New York Jets
   
NFC
1 Carolina
2 Arizona
3 Green Bay
4 Washington
5 Minnesota
6 Seattle

 

NFL Playoff Projections
AFC SEED TEAM
1 Denver
2 New England
3 Cincinnati
4 Houston
5 Kansas City
6 New York Jets
     
NFC SEED TEAM
1 Carolina
2 Arizona
3 Green Bay
4 Philadelphia
5 Seattle
6 Minnesota
     
Wildcard Playoff Round
Green Bay over Minnesota
Seattle over Philadelphia
New York Jets over Cincinnati
Kansas City over Houston
 
Divisional Playoff Round
Carolina over Seattle
Arizona over Green Bay
New York Jets over Denver
Kansas City over New England
 
Conference Championship Round
Arizona over Carolina
Kansas City over New York Jets
 
Super Bowl 50
Kansas City over Arizona

December 1, 2015

NFL Preview For Week 13: December 3-7, 2015

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
N.Y. Giants 100.7 100.6 100.9 100.7 5-6-0 287 273
Dallas 100.6 99.3 99.8 99.9 3-8-0 204 261
Philadelphia 97.4 96.8 97.4 97.2 4-7-0 243 274
Washington 96.0 95.9 96.1 96.0 5-6-0 241 267
               
North PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Green Bay 105.1 104.3 104.5 104.6 7-4-0 262 215
Minnesota 103.2 102.4 104.4 103.3 8-3-0 231 194
Chicago 99.6 100.0 100.8 100.1 5-6-0 231 264
Detroit 99.8 98.6 98.7 99.0 4-7-0 230 288
               
South PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Carolina 108.1 108.5 109.7 108.8 11-0-0 332 205
Atlanta 97.2 96.7 96.5 96.8 6-5-0 260 234
Tampa Bay 95.8 96.3 95.6 95.9 5-6-0 248 279
New Orleans 93.1 90.9 92.3 92.1 4-7-0 261 339
               
West PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Arizona 108.1 107.6 108.7 108.1 9-2-0 355 229
Seattle 106.0 105.5 106.0 105.8 6-5-0 267 222
St. Louis 95.1 95.6 94.9 95.2 4-7-0 186 230
San Francisco 95.5 94.3 95.6 95.1 3-8-0 152 271
               
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
New England 111.3 111.2 110.7 111.1 10-1-0 347 212
Buffalo 101.4 102.3 101.7 101.8 5-6-0 266 257
N. Y. Jets 100.6 101.1 100.4 100.7 6-5-0 272 228
Miami 96.9 97.3 96.0 96.7 4-7-0 225 287
               
North PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Cincinnati 106.0 107.1 107.2 106.8 9-2-0 297 193
Pittsburgh 103.6 103.4 102.9 103.3 6-5-0 266 230
Baltimore 100.5 99.5 99.8 99.9 4-7-0 259 276
Cleveland 93.0 92.1 92.4 92.5 2-9-0 213 310
               
South PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 101.5 102.1 102.1 101.9 6-5-0 249 260
Houston 99.0 100.5 100.0 99.8 6-5-0 232 234
Jacksonville 91.9 94.2 91.6 92.6 4-7-0 236 299
Tennessee 91.8 91.8 91.6 91.7 2-9-0 203 257
               
West PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Kansas City 105.3 106.2 105.9 105.8 6-5-0 287 220
Denver 104.6 104.1 104.6 104.4 9-2-0 252 207
Oakland 95.6 97.8 95.6 96.3 5-6-0 264 280
San Diego 95.7 96.0 95.6 95.8 3-8-0 244 307

 

This Week’s Games
         
Week Number: 13      
Date of Games: December 3-7      
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Detroit Green Bay -2.8 -3.2 -3.3
NY Giants NY Jets 0.1 -0.5 0.5
St. Louis Arizona -10.0 -9.0 -10.8
Tampa Bay Atlanta 1.1 2.1 2.6
New Orleans Carolina -12.5 -15.1 -14.9
Minnesota Seattle 0.2 -0.1 1.4
Buffalo Houston 5.4 4.8 4.7
Miami Baltimore -0.6 0.8 -0.8
Cleveland Cincinnati -11.0 -13.0 -12.8
Tennessee Jacksonville 2.4 0.1 2.5
Chicago San Francisco 7.1 8.7 8.2
San Diego Denver -5.9 -5.1 -6.0
Oakland Kansas City -6.7 -5.4 -7.3
New England Philadelphia 16.9 17.4 16.3
Pittsburgh Indianapolis 5.1 4.3 3.8
Washington Dallas -1.6 -0.4 -0.7

 

NFL Playoffs

If Season Ended Today
AFC
1 New England
2 Cincinnati
3 Denver
4 Indianapolis
5 Kansas City
6 Houston
   
NFC
1 Carolina
2 Arizona
3 Minnesota
4 Washington
5 Green Bay
6 Seattle

 

NFL Playoff Projections

NFL Playoff Projections
AFC SEED TEAM
1 New England
2 Denver
3 Cincinnati
4 Indianapolis
5 Kansas City
6 Pittsburgh
     
NFC SEED TEAM
1 Carolina
2 Arizona
3 Minnesota
4 Washington
5 Green Bay
6 Seattle
     
Wildcard Playoff Round
Cincinnati over Pittsburgh
Kansas City over Indianapolis
Seattle over Minnesota
Green Bay over Washington
 
Divisional Playoff Round
New England over Kansas City
Denver over Cincinnati
Carolina over Seattle
Arizona over Green Bay
 
Conference Championship Round
New England over Denver
Arizona over Carolina
 
Super Bowl 50
Arizona over New England

 

November 9, 2015

NFL Preview For Week 10: November 13-17, 2015

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Philadelphia 104.0 103.4 104.5 104.0 4-4-0 193 164
Dallas 102.7 101.1 102.2 102.0 2-6-0 160 204
N.Y. Giants 100.6 100.6 101.1 100.8 5-4-0 247 226
Washington 94.7 94.5 94.5 94.6 3-5-0 158 195
               
North PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Green Bay 105.9 105.1 105.3 105.4 6-2-0 203 167
Minnesota 102.2 100.7 103.1 102.0 6-2-0 168 140
Chicago 95.5 95.6 96.1 95.7 3-5-0 162 221
Detroit 96.2 94.4 94.7 95.1 1-7-0 149 245
               
South PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Carolina 104.9 105.1 105.8 105.3 8-0-0 228 165
Atlanta 98.8 98.6 98.8 98.7 6-3-0 229 190
New Orleans 97.3 95.0 97.1 96.5 4-5-0 241 268
Tampa Bay 91.7 92.4 91.4 91.8 3-5-0 181 231
               
West PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Arizona 107.2 106.8 108.1 107.4 6-2-0 263 153
Seattle 106.5 105.7 106.1 106.1 4-4-0 167 140
St. Louis 98.7 99.7 99.3 99.2 4-4-0 153 146
San Francisco 95.2 93.8 95.0 94.7 3-6-0 126 223
               
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
New England 112.5 113.0 113.0 112.8 8-0-0 276 143
Buffalo 100.6 101.2 100.1 100.6 4-4-0 209 190
N. Y. Jets 100.3 100.8 100.5 100.5 5-3-0 200 162
Miami 97.8 98.6 97.0 97.8 3-5-0 171 206
               
North PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Cincinnati 106.6 107.7 107.7 107.3 8-0-0 229 142
Pittsburgh 102.9 103.1 102.6 102.9 5-4-0 206 182
Baltimore 102.0 100.9 101.7 101.5 2-6-0 190 214
Cleveland 93.8 92.9 93.4 93.4 2-7-0 177 247
                 
South PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 100.7 101.1 100.8 100.9 4-5-0 200 227
Houston 95.2 96.6 94.9 95.6 3-5-0 174 205
Tennessee 93.0 92.8 93.2 93.0 2-6-0 159 187
Jacksonville 90.8 94.0 90.5 91.8 2-6-0 170 235
               
West PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Denver 107.1 106.3 106.6 106.7 7-1-0 192 139
Kansas City 100.5 101.4 100.9 100.9 3-5-0 195 182
Oakland 96.6 99.9 96.8 97.8 4-4-0 213 211
San Diego 97.5 97.2 97.2 97.3 2-7-0 210 249

 

This Week’s Games
         
Week Number: 10      
Date of Games: November 12-16      
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
NY Jets Buffalo 1.7 1.6 2.4
Green Bay Detroit 11.7 12.7 12.6
Tampa Bay Dallas -8.5 -6.2 -8.3
Tennessee Carolina -8.9 -9.3 -9.6
St. Louis Chicago 5.2 6.1 5.2
Washington New Orleans 0.4 2.5 0.4
Philadelphia Miami 9.2 7.8 10.5
Pittsburgh Cleveland 11.6 12.7 11.7
Baltimore Jacksonville 14.2 9.9 14.2
Oakland Minnesota -2.6 2.2 -3.3
NY Giants New England -9.4 -9.9 -9.4
Denver Kansas City 9.6 7.9 8.7
Seattle Arizona 2.3 1.9 1.0
Cincinnati Houston 14.4 14.1 15.8

 

If Season Ended Today
AFC
1 New England
2 Cincinnati
3 Denver
4 Indianapolis
5 N. Y. Jets
6 Pittsburgh
   
NFC
1 Carolina
2 Minnesota
3 Arizona
4 N. Y. Giants
5 Green Bay
6 Atlanta

 

NFL Playoff Projections
AFC SEED TEAM
1 New England
2 Cincinnati
3 Denver
4 Indianapolis
5 N. Y. Jets
6 Pittsburgh
     
NFC SEED TEAM
1 Carolina
2 Arizona
3 Green Bay
4 Philadelphia
5 Minnesota
6 Seattle
     
Wildcard Playoff Round
Denver over Pittsburgh
N. Y. Jets over Indianapolis
Green Bay over Seattle
Minnesota over Philadelphia
 
Divisional Playoff Round
New England over N. Y. Jets
Cincinnati over Denver
Carolina over Minnesota
Arizona over Green Bay
 
Conference Championship Round
New England over Cincinnati
Arizona over Carolina
 
Super Bowl 50
New England over Arizona

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