Red, White, and Blue Ratings for Friday’s NCAA Tournament Games

NCAA Tournament–Friday, March 17, 2017

Team	Team	Red	White	Blue
Michigan	Oklahoma St.	-1	3	1
Baylor	New Mexico St.	11	12	13
Arkansas	Seton Hall	2	1	-1
Oregon	Iona	11	12	10
Louisville	Jacksonville St.	18	18	17
SMU	USC	8	8	4
North Carolina	Texas Southern	22	20	19
Creighton	Rhode Island	4	1	2
Kansas	UC-Davis	22	19	18
Dayton	Wichita St.	-7	-5	-1
Duke	Troy	15	16	14
Cincinnati	Kansas St.	2	5	2
Miami (Fla.)	Michigan St.	1	2	-2
Kentucky	Northern Kentucky	19	18	13
South Carolina	Marquette	1	-1	1
UCLA	Kent St.	16	14	10

 

TV Schedule

Time (EDT)	Network	Team	vs.	Team
12:15 PM	CBS	Michigan	vs.	Oklahoma St.
12:40 PM	truTV	Baylor	vs.	New Mexico St.
1:30 PM	TNT	Arkansas	vs.	Seton Hall
2:00 PM	TBS	Oregon	vs.	Iona
2:45 PM	CBS	Louisville	vs.	Jacksonville St.
3:10 PM	truTV	SMU	vs.	USC
4:00 PM	TNT	North Carolina	vs.	Texas Southern
4:30 PM	TBS	Creighton	vs.	Rhode Island
6:50 PM	TNT	Kansas	vs.	UC-Davis
7:10 PM	CBS	Dayton	vs.	Wichita St.
7:20 PM	TBS	Duke	vs.	Troy
7:27 PM	truTV	Cincinnati	vs.	Kansas St.
9:20 PM	TNT	Miami (Fla.)	vs.	Michigan St.
9:40 PM	CBS	Kentucky	vs.	Northern Kentucky
9:50 PM	TBS	South Carolina	vs.	Marquette
9:57 PM	truTV	UCLA	vs.	Kent St.

 

 

 

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PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–September 29-October 3, 2016

First Big Payday (even if it wasn’t real)

After failing miserably in the opening two weeks, and then failing minimally in week three, the PiRates reaped quite an imaginary booty of riches last week when our money line parlays returned 75% on investment. Thanks to winning big on the NFL Parlay of Indianapolis, Oakland, and Dallas, and to the nice college parlay of Arizona State, Cincinnati, Minnesota, and Memphis, our imaginary $400 wagered returned us $699 for a profit of $299 and ROI of 75%.
For the season, we are still in the hole to the tune of $193 on $1,600 wagered and an ROI of -12%. Let’s hope that like last year, once we began to win, we won consistently every week. On the other hand, one winning week out of four, even if it was big, is not enough to convince us that we are on to something again this year.

In fact, this week’s games do not excite us very much. We had to peruse the odds carefully multiple times just to come up with three parlays. At least, these parlays go off at such odds that winning just one of any of these three would make our week profitable. The glass half-empty types, which represents 95% of the players, might say that the odds on these three games are so stacked against us that there is no way any of them could win. Since our wagers are imaginary, we can see that our glass is half-full with liquids about to be poured to fill it up. In other words, we don’t feel any stress going with these three parlays this week.

1. College Parlay at +218
Ohio U over Miami of Ohio
Louisiana-Lafayette over New Mexico State
Iowa over Northwestern

You may notice that a high percentage of our college plays is made in games involving teams outside the Power Five. It is our opinion that the odds can be off more in these Group of Five games than in games where the nations’ sports eyes are more focused. Whereas games like Michigan and Wisconsin are perused carefully by the betting public, games from the MAC or Sun Belt don’t see the same amount of action, and thus we feel like the odds are a little bit off. UL-Lafayette is properly favored over New Mexico State, but we think they should be favored by more than what the line says. We feel the same way about Ohio over Miami. The Iowa-Northwestern line is about where we feel it should be, but in this case, we think the Hawkeyes have a strong chance of winning and completing the triplet parlay for a $318 return on $100 invested.

2. College Parlay at +273
Tennessee over Georgia
Akron over Kent St.
Old Dominion over Charlotte
Florida over Vanderbilt

This parlay presents us with three separate psychologies, as well as the belief that the favorites are just plain better than the underdogs and should win without any added psychologies. The public expects Tennessee to venture between the hedges and come out flat, while Georgia rebounds in a big way after losing to Ole Miss by more than 30. We feel that Georgia is just much weaker than normal this year, and the loss in Oxford was not an anamoly. The talent in Athens is just not what it normally has been in typical years. Thus, we believe that the Volunteers will win by up to two touchdowns in this game.

The Akron and Old Dominion games are further examples of Group of Five game odds being off. We believe the two favorites should be more heavily favored and choose to take advantage of the odds being favored in our direction for higher potential payouts.

The Florida-Vanderbilt game is the polar opposite of the Tennessee-Georgia game in one way, and the exact same thing in the other way. Florida had the Tennessee game secured by halftime and then saw an orange tornado vanquish their Gator bite in the second half. They can ill afford to lose two games in a row in the Volunteer State. Vanderbilt won a hard-fought overtime game at Western Kentucky last week after the Hilltoppers squandered opportunities to put the game away.

Last year, a shanked punt allowed Florida to kick a field goal and win a sloppy game 9-7 in the Swamp. The public is looking at this game and believes this one could be similar with a possible upset. However, this Vanderbilt team lacks the defense that last year’s team had. In fact, it is one of the weakest among the Power Five teams, and Florida should play four quarters similar to how they played the first two in Knoxville last week.

3. NFL Parlay at +331
Cincinnati over Miami
Houston over Tennessee
Baltimore over Oakland
Pittsburgh over Kansas City

The Dolphins had to go to overtime to beat a lowly Browns’ team using a third string quarterback. Now, they must face Cincinnati on Thursday night on national television after the Bengals dropped back-to-back games against two tough teams. Cinti should win by 10 or more.

Houston can take a commanding lead in the AFC South this week by winning this game and hoping Jacksonville can dispense of Indianapolis. The Texans had an extra three days to prepare for a team they have owned in recent years. Tennessee has a potentially potent offense hiding behind an ineffective smashmouth offense. When Marcus Mariota is forced into a quick score situation, he guides the Titans like he did at Oregon. But, the Titans refuse to use this gameplan until all hope is lost or close to lost. Expect Houston to shoot out to a double-digit lead, and then when the Titans have to play catch-up, they will make the game closer but not close enough.

Baltimore looks to begin the season at 4-0 as they host Oakland. The Raiders are having to make a 2,000-mile trip for the second week in a row, and the Raiders may show signs of fatigue after having to play last week in the oppressive heat with temperatures in the 90’s. We believe the Raiders will be just a tad slow to react on defense and not quite as explosive on offense, leading to a Ravens’ win.

The Steelers are in the same boat as the Texans this week. Following an embarrassing loss in which they were manhandled by Philly, look for Pittsburgh to bounce back with their best performance of the season.

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–September 22-26, 2016

After improving a bit last week and losing only $23 of our imaginary bank roll, we have decided to expand our plays to include a couple of underdogs we believe can win outright. Thus, two of our four chosen plays this week will return big payoffs of imaginary cash should they come through with winners.
First, we must take care of official business. Last week, we played five parlays, winning $277 and losing $300. For the year, we have now wagered $1,200 in imaginary money, and have a loss of $442 to date, meaning still no return on our unreal investment. We warned you that Money Line Parlays can be really tough, but we love to play them, especially since it costs us nothing.
Here are our picks for this week. Remember, don’t actually wager on these. This is just for fun, and we would never put a dime of real money on these plays, even if it returned over 40% on investment last year. It’s doing squat so far this year.

1. College Parlay at +450
Army over Buffalo
Tulane over Louisiana-Lafayette
Arkansas over Texas A&M

Arkansas is the underdog in this parlay and the reason it offers a return of 4.5 times the amount invested. The Razorbacks have been slowly developing a balanced offense with an improving defense. Winning at TCU is enough to show us that the Hogs are on the way back to great things. Texas A&M has struggled in their two wins over quality opposition, and we believe the Aggies are due for continued struggles.

Army is off to a great start, and the Black Knights now face a Buffalo team that has already lost to a FCS opponent. This could be the type of game that allows the Cadets to play their plebes. Coach Jeff Monken learned well from his mentor Paul Johnson, and the Army rushing attack looks like it could move the ball on most FBS teams this year. They should light up the scoreboard against Buffalo.

Tulane is also running the option under first year coach Willie Fritz. Fritz does not have all the pieces in place yet in New Orleans, but with his Texas ties, it is only a matter of time until the Green Wave are winning once again. For now, TU has an exceptional defense with a clock-consuming offense that allows that defense to stay fresh and strong enough to hold ULL to 10 points, which is few enough that we see the olive green and blue winning this week.

2. College Parlay at +126
Arizona St. over California
Cincinnati over Miami (O)
Minnesota over Colorado St.
Memphis over Bowling Green

Arizona State had to rally in the fourth quarter to win at UTSA, while Cal pulled off a nice home upset of Texas. With the Golden Bears playing in the heat in Tempe, and with ASU’s players more focused, we believe Todd Graham’s Sun Devils will play their best game of the season to date, while Cal has trouble with the heat and the speed of the ASU receivers.

Cincinnati should beat Miami of Ohio by 3 touchdowns, but even if the in-state rival underdogs play their best possible and the Bearcats stink up the joint, Cinti should win by at least 10.

Minnesota is a team flying under the radar. They win, but they don’t win convincingly and don’t win with flashy play. The offense is better than most think, and the defense is not shabby. This Gophers team is not yet the equivalent of the Sandy Stephens’ teams of the early 1960’s, but it could be as good as any in Minneapolis since Laurence Maroney and Bryan Capito were moving the pigskin.

This year’s Memphis team has not really been challenged yet, and Bowling Green is not the team to bring that challenge. The Tigers should have little problem disposing of the Falcons, as this is a different BGU team without Dino Babers at the controls.

3. NFL Parlay at +373
Indianapolis over San Diego
Oakland over Tennessee
Dallas over Chicago

Oakland is the second underdog we will use in our parlays this week. The Raiders’ starting offensive and defensive lines manhandled the Titans starting offensive and defensive lines in the preseason game. Preseason games don’t reveal a lot, but when you see one front consistently moving the opposing front in the same direction, it is a good bet that they will do so no matter the importance of the game. We believe the Raiders will score more points than the Titans are capable of scoring, and thus we go with the underdog.

Indianapolis faces a must-win scenario at home. Even with a sore Andrew Luck, we believe the Colts will find a way to eke out a small win. If not, then the AFC West is going to be one incredible 4-team race.

Dallas should handle the Bears with relative ease. Without Jay Cutler, Chicago will have to play conservatively and hope they can rattle Dak Prescott. We believe that the nifty rookie will continue to play brilliantly week after week and could be the odds-on favorite to win the Rookie of the Year Award.

4. NFL Parlay at +143
Miami over Cleveland
New York Giants over Washington
Carolina over Minnesota

If Cleveland couldn’t win with RGIII and John McCown at quarterback, then how can they win with Cody Kessler, who wasn’t good enough to make the active roster when all the QBs were healthy. Miami is not playoff worthy at this point, but Adam Gase can design a game plan that will make Kessler’s debut a nightmare.

The Giants look like the Giants of old when Eli Manning had multiple quality receivers to throw to, and the defense came up with big stops. Well, Manning has multiple quality receivers again, and the defense is coming up with big stops. NY could be looking at a season where they are playing at home in January.

The Carolina-Minnesota match worried us for hours today. The Vikings will have to go without Adrian Peterson, but their defense looks as strong as it has looked since the days of Eller, Page, and company. Meanwhile, there is unrest in Charlotte, and it could carry over to the team. We decided that in the end, we would go with the home team to capitalize on the weakened running game and thus to slow down Sam Bradford.

2016 American Athletic Conference Football Preview

Today, we conclude with our previews of the Group of 5 conferences and throw in the four independents to boot. The American Athletic Conference produced the Group of 5 at-large representative to the New Year’s 6 Bowls last year. Houston represented the little brothers well last year, when the Cougars bested Florida State in the Peach Bowl last year.

Houston should be right in the thick of the AAC and NY6 Bowl race this year, but we believe that another league member is talented enough to take this year’s automatic NY6 Bowl bid, and if they can pull off one upset, maybe even challenge for the #4 seed in the playoffs.

Coach Willie Taggart has his South Florida team ready to make a run toward an undefeated season this year. The Bulls must pull off the upset against Florida State, but USF gets to host the Seminoles in that game a week after FSU must face Louisville on the road.

USF returns an exceptional dual threat quarterback in Quinton Flowers. Flowers topped 1,000 yards rushing (not counting QB sacks, or if NFL statistic rules were used) last year, while averaging more than 8 yards per passing attempt. Seven of his top eight targets from last year return to give the Bulls an improved passing attack. That should allow multi-talented running back Marlon Mack to see less eight-man defensive fronts and give him a chance to improve on his 1,381 rushing yards from a year ago.

Defensively, USF 10 of their top dozen tacklers from a year ago, including potential All-American Deatrick Nichols as a cover cornerback. USF should trim about 5 points and 30-50 total yards off what the defense allowed last year, and that should give the Bulls a fighting chance to conquer that one great matador in their path to a perfect season.

Houston is still the class of the West Division. The Cougars came within an upset loss against Connecticut in November last year of possibly getting into the Playoff picture. Second year head coach Tom Herman proved to be a talented protege of his mentor Urban Meyer, as he guided the Cougars to a 13-1 season. Only a few questions on the defensive side keep us from making UH our clear-cut favorite for the NY6 Bowl, but they only trail USF by a tiny margin as the season begins. What hurts the Cougars is an opening game against Oklahoma at NRG Stadium, and we cannot see the Cougars’ defense being ready to stop the Sooners’ offense. Starting 0-1, Houston will be behind the eight-ball all season. Road games against Cincinnati, Navy, and Memphis may be more than UH can handle, so the Cougars could be a two-loss team heading into the AAC Championship Game.

Here is how the Media picked this year’s AAC race.

American Athletic Conference–East Division
#	Team	1st Pl.	Total	Champ.
1	South Florida	15	164	2
2	Temple	9	144	1
3	Cincinnati	6	130
4	Connecticut	0	89
5	East Carolina	0	55
6	Central Florida	0	48
American Athletic Conference–West Division
#	Team	1st Pl.	Total	Champ.
1	Houston	30	180	27
2	Navy	0	128
3	Memphis	0	124
4	Tulsa	0	92
5	SMU	0	65
6	Tulane	0	41

And, here are how our PiRates rate the teams to begin the 2016 season.

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
South Florida	108.3	105.7	109.5	107.8
Cincinnati	101.5	102.7	102.5	102.3
Temple	102.2	101.2	103.1	102.2
Connecticut	98.3	96.1	98.6	97.7
East Carolina	91.6	94.6	91.7	92.6
Central Florida	85.9	88.6	85.9	86.8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Houston	110.1	108.3	111.9	110.1
Tulsa	99.7	102.2	100.4	100.8
Memphis	102.7	97.8	100.8	100.5
Navy	99.2	99.0	98.6	99.0
SMU	93.7	92.1	93.2	93.0
Tulane	82.2	86.1	82.0	83.4
AAC Averages	98.0	97.9	98.2	98.0

The PiRate Ratings are meant to be used only to predict the outcomes of the next week of games, and are not best used to predict beyond that point.  Because we use algorithms that include automatic adjustments by each team based on depth and experience, two different teams can win by the exact score we predict, and their new ratings might change differently.

 

Thus, using our ratings to predict won-loss records and bowl projections is a bit comical, but then we all need some laughs every now and then.  So, laugh away at our projected standings and bowls.

American Athletic Conference Projected Standings
Team	Conference	Overall	Bowl
East Division
South Florida	8-0	12-1 *	Cotton–NY6
Temple	6-2	9-3	Military
Cincinnati	4-4	6-6	Birmingham
Connecticut	3-5	4-8
East Carolina	2-6	3-9
Central Florida	1-7	2-10
Team	Conference	Overall	Bowl
West Division
Houston	8-0	10-3	St. Petersburg
Navy	6-2	8-4	Armed Forces
Tulsa	5-3	8-4	Miami Beach
Memphis	4-4	7-5	Bahamas
SMU	1-7	3-9
Tulane	0-8	3-9
* South Florida to win AAC Title and automatic NY 6 Bowl Bid

Coming Later Today–A look at the four independents.

 

 

 

Computer Simulations: 2016 NFL Playoffs–Wildcard Round

Earlier today, we placed all the pertinent statistics, the weather forecasts, and the home field advantages into the good old computer simulator, and it spit out 100 simulations of each NFL game for the Wildcard Weekend.  When we saw the results, we had to make sure we had not made any mistakes in the input, because the output for the four games was very close to identical.

 

After we realized there had been no mistakes, we were left with the thought that all four games are about equal in competitive value.  There were four clear favorites, but the average scores and standard deviations of the four games tells us that these games should all be exciting.  Weather could play a factor in Minneapolis and in Cincinnati.

All Games will be broadcast on the radio over the Westwood One Radio Network.  To find your local affiliate, follow the link below:

http://westwoodonesports.com/stations/

Saturday, January 9, 2016

Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) at Houston Texans (9-7)

Kickoff: 4:35 PM EST

TV: ESPN

Las Vegas Line: Kansas City by 3 to 3 1/2

Totals: 40 to 41

Money Line Avg: Kansas City -170  Houston +150

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Kansas City by 1.7

Mean: Kansas City by 0.9

Bias: Kansas City by 0.5

 

100 Simulations

Kansas City Wins: 60

Houston Wins: 40

Avg. Score: Kansas City 21.0  Houston 17.3

St Deviation: 8.3

Outlier KC win: 34-10

Outlier Hou win: 27-6

 

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (12-4)

Kickoff: 8:15 PM EST

TV: CBS

Las Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 2 1/2 to 3

Totals: 45 1/2 to 46 1/2

Money Line Avg. Pittsburgh -150  Cincinnati +130

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Cincinnati by 2.0

Mean: Cincinnati by 2.3

Bias: Cincinnati by 2.6

 

100 Simulations

Pittsburgh wins: 59

Cincinnati wins: 41

Avg. Score: Pittsburgh 24.5  Cincinnati 22.6

St. Deviation: 8.7

Outlier Pit win: 37-14

Outlier Cin win: 28-9

 

Sunday, January 10, 2016

Seattle Seahawks (10-6) at Minnesota Vikings (11-5)

Kickoff: 1:05 PM EST

TV: NBC

Las Vegas Line: Seattle by 4 1/2 to 5 1/2

Totals: 39 1/2 to 40

Money Line Avg.: Seattle -230  Minnesota +190

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Seattle by 3.0

Mean: Seattle by 2.5

Bias: Seattle by 0.4

 

100 Simulations

Seattle wins 61

Minnesota wins 39

Avg. Score: Seattle 24.7  Minnesota 21.7

St. Deviation: 8.8

Outlier Sea win: 41-14

Outlier Min win: 28-12

 

Green Bay Packers (10-6) at Washington Redskins (9-7)

Kickoff: 4:40 PM EST

TV: Fox

Las Vegas Line: Pick to Washington by 1

Totals: 45 to 45 1/2

Money Line Avg.: Washington -110  Green Bay -110

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Green Bay by 1.1

Mean: Washington by 0.2

Bias: Washington by 1.2

 

100 Simulations

Green Bay wins: 61

Washington wins: 39

Avg. Score: Green Bay 25.9  Washington 22.9

St Deviation: 7.3

Outlier GB win: 34-17

Outlier Was win: 27-16

PiRate Ratings NFL Wildcard Round

The 2016 NFL Playoffs on paper look like the most competitive in many years.  In the AFC, there is no clear cut winner, and it would not shock us at all if almost every game on this side was close.

 

The NFC appeared to have been top heavy with the top two seeds clearly better than the rest, but in the final two weeks, Carolina and Arizona appeared to be having some issues, while Minnesota and Seattle looked to be hitting their peaks.  The Washington Redskins closed on a nice streak as well, and only the Green Bay Packers really limped into the playoffs.

 

Final Regular Season NFL PiRate Ratings
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Washington	99.7	100.4	101.6	100.6	9-7-0	388	379
Philadelphia	98.0	97.8	98.3	98.0	7-9-0	377	430
N.Y. Giants	98.4	97.8	97.4	97.9	6-10-0	420	442
Dallas	97.8	96.3	96.0	96.7	4-12-0	275	374
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Minnesota	105.4	105.5	108.2	106.4	11-5-0	365	302
Green Bay	103.8	103.2	103.4	103.5	10-6-0	368	323
Detroit	100.1	99.4	100.1	99.9	7-9-0	358	400
Chicago	97.0	96.5	96.6	96.7	6-10-0	335	397
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Carolina	108.7	109.1	110.5	109.4	15-1-0	500	308
Atlanta	97.1	96.9	96.4	96.8	8-8-0	339	345
New Orleans	95.7	94.9	96.4	95.7	7-9-0	408	476
Tampa Bay	93.2	92.5	91.6	92.4	6-10-0	342	417
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Seattle	111.4	111.0	111.6	111.3	10-6-0	423	277
Arizona	109.8	109.7	111.0	110.2	13-3-0	489	313
St. Louis	96.8	97.5	97.5	97.3	7-9-0	280	330
San Francisco	94.2	93.0	93.9	93.7	5-11-0	238	387
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New England	107.0	106.4	105.5	106.3	12-4-0	465	315
N. Y. Jets	102.4	103.1	102.8	102.8	10-6-0	387	314
Buffalo	101.2	101.8	101.4	101.5	8-8-0	379	359
Miami	96.5	96.3	95.4	96.1	6-10-0	310	389
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Pittsburgh	107.3	107.5	107.2	107.3	10-6-0	423	319
Cincinnati	106.8	107.3	107.3	107.1	12-4-0	419	279
Baltimore	98.3	97.6	97.3	97.7	5-11-0	328	401
Cleveland	92.5	92.0	92.5	92.3	3-13-0	278	432
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Houston	100.9	102.5	102.3	101.9	9-7-0	339	313
Indianapolis	95.6	95.8	95.3	95.6	8-8-0	333	408
Jacksonville	92.2	93.2	90.8	92.1	5-11-0	376	448
Tennessee	89.3	89.4	88.6	89.1	3-13-0	299	423
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Kansas City	105.6	106.4	105.8	105.9	11-5-0	405	287
Denver	103.9	103.6	103.8	103.8	12-4-0	355	296
San Diego	96.9	97.5	97.2	97.2	4-12-0	320	398
Oakland	96.5	98.1	96.5	97.0	7-9-0	359	399

 

The Playoff Teams Ratings

Current NFL Playoffs PiRate Ratings
NFC	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Seattle	111.4	111.0	111.6	111.3	10-6-0	423	277
Arizona	109.8	109.7	111.0	110.2	13-3-0	489	313
Carolina	108.7	109.1	110.5	109.4	15-1-0	500	308
Minnesota	105.4	105.5	108.2	106.4	11-5-0	365	302
Green Bay	103.8	103.2	103.4	103.5	10-6-0	368	323
Washington	99.7	100.4	101.6	100.6	9-7-0	388	379
AFC	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Pittsburgh	107.3	107.5	107.2	107.3	10-6-0	423	319
Cincinnati	106.8	107.3	107.3	107.1	12-4-0	419	279
New England	107.0	106.4	105.5	106.3	12-4-0	465	315
Kansas City	105.6	106.4	105.8	105.9	11-5-0	405	287
Denver	103.9	103.6	103.8	103.8	12-4-0	355	296
Houston	100.9	102.5	102.3	101.9	9-7-0	339	313

Note: Computer Simulations of the Wildcard Playoff Round will be published on Friday, January 8

This Week’s Games
Week Number:	Wildcard Round
Date of Games:	January 9-10
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Houston	Kansas City	-1.7	-0.9	-0.5
Cincinnati	Pittsburgh	2.0	2.3	2.6
Minnesota	Seattle	-3.0	-2.5	-0.4
Washington	Green Bay	-1.1	0.2	1.2

NFL Preview For Week 17: January 3, 2016

Playoffs Simplified

If you have been to some of the big box sports sites, they have not made it easy to decipher their playoff possibilities.  If X wins and Y loses, but Z wins, then who gets the bye, or who is the wildcard?  We are going to simplify it for you and tell you the scenarios that are likely to happen and not give you this X must win, and then needs help from Y, Z, A, B, and 6 other teams junk.

 

A F C

5 teams have already qualified for the playoffs, well actually just 4, but we are going to eliminate the Indianapolis Colts from the discussion, because it is not going to happen–Indy is out of luck.  10 games have to go exactly right for the Colts to win, and a good amount would have to be upsets.  Houston has a 99.9% chance of being the AFC South Champion.  New England, Cincinnati, Denver, and Kansas City are also in the playoffs.

 

The one playoff spot left will go to the New York Jets if they win at Buffalo or the Pittsburgh Steelers lose at Cleveland.  Pittsburgh will be the last team in if they beat Cleveland, while the Bills also beat the Jets.

 

The Patriots will be the #1 seed with a win or Bronco loss.  A loss and Bronco win makes Denver #1.  Both teams have easily winnable games, with New England playing Miami and Denver playing San Diego.

 

The Cincinnati Bengals can clinch the #2 seed only if they beat Baltimore and Denver loses to San Diego, or if they lose to Baltimore, Denver loses to San Diego, and Kansas City beats Oakland.

 

Kansas City can still pass the Broncos if Denver loses to San Diego, while the Chiefs beat Oakland.   If Kansas City is the wildcard at 11-5, the Chiefs will be the #5 seed over an 11-5 Jets team, but if the Broncos become the wildcard at 11-5, an 11-5 Jets team would be the #5 seed.

 

N F C

The 6 playoff teams are set.  Carolina, Arizona, Green Bay, Washington, Minnesota, and Seattle are the playoff teams, but there are still some seedings to be determined.

 

At the top, if Carolina loses to Tampa Bay at home, and Arizona beats Seattle, the Cardinals jump ahead of the Panthers for the #1 seed.  It isn’t likely to happen, so figure Carolina at #1 and Arizona at #2.

 

Minnesota plays at Green Bay, and the winner will be the #3 seed, while the loser becomes the #5 seed.

 

Here is how we see the playoffs as of today:

NFL Playoff Projections
AFC SEED	TEAM
1	New England
2	Denver
3	Cincinnati
4	Houston
5	Kansas City
6	New York Jets
NFC SEED	TEAM
1	Carolina
2	Arizona
3	Green Bay
4	Washington
5	Minnesota
6	Seattle
Wildcard Playoff Round
New York Jets over Cincinnati
Kansas City over Houston
Seattle over Green Bay
Minnesota over Washington
Divisional Playoff Round
New York Jets over New England
Kansas City over Denver
Carolina over Seattle
Arizona over Minnesota
Conference Championship Round
Kansas City over New York Jets
Arizona over Carolina
Super Bowl 50
Arizona over Kansas City

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Washington	98.6	99.1	100.1	99.3	8-7-0	354	356
N.Y. Giants	99.0	98.7	98.6	98.8	6-9-0	390	407
Dallas	98.9	97.6	97.5	98.0	4-11-0	252	340
Philadelphia	97.4	96.9	97.1	97.1	6-9-0	342	400
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Minnesota	104.4	104.3	106.8	105.2	10-5-0	345	289
Green Bay	104.8	104.4	104.8	104.7	10-5-0	355	303
Detroit	99.9	99.0	99.5	99.5	6-9-0	334	380
Chicago	97.2	96.9	97.2	97.1	6-9-0	315	373
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Carolina	107.7	107.9	109.4	108.3	14-1-0	462	298
Atlanta	97.7	97.8	97.4	97.6	8-7-0	322	325
New Orleans	95.1	94.0	95.4	94.8	6-9-0	388	459
Tampa Bay	94.2	93.7	92.7	93.5	6-9-0	332	379
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Arizona	112.2	112.3	113.9	112.8	13-2-0	483	277
Seattle	109.0	108.4	108.7	108.7	9-6-0	387	271
St. Louis	96.8	97.6	97.5	97.3	7-8-0	264	311
San Francisco	94.2	92.9	93.9	93.7	4-11-0	219	371
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New England	108.8	108.5	107.9	108.4	12-3-0	455	295
N. Y. Jets	102.6	103.4	103.2	103.1	10-5-0	370	292
Buffalo	101.0	101.5	101.0	101.2	7-8-0	357	342
Miami	94.7	94.2	93.0	94.0	5-10-0	290	379
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Cincinnati	106.9	107.6	107.8	107.4	11-4-0	395	263
Pittsburgh	107.2	107.2	106.9	107.1	9-6-0	395	307
Baltimore	98.2	97.3	96.8	97.4	5-10-0	312	377
Cleveland	92.6	92.3	92.8	92.6	3-12-0	266	404
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Houston	100.0	101.4	101.0	100.8	8-7-0	309	307
Indianapolis	95.8	96.1	95.7	95.9	7-8-0	303	384
Jacksonville	93.1	94.3	92.1	93.2	5-10-0	370	418
Tennessee	89.1	89.1	88.2	88.8	3-12-0	275	393
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Kansas City	105.9	106.8	106.4	106.4	10-5-0	382	270
Denver	104.0	103.8	104.0	103.9	11-4-0	328	276
San Diego	96.8	97.3	97.0	97.0	4-11-0	300	371
Oakland	96.2	97.7	95.9	96.6	7-8-0	342	376

 

This Week’s Games
Week Number:	17
Date of Games:	January 3
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Buffalo	NY Jets	0.9	0.6	0.3
Miami	New England	-11.1	-11.3	-11.9
Carolina	Tampa Bay	16.0	16.7	19.2
Atlanta	New Orleans	5.1	6.3	4.5
Cincinnati	Baltimore	10.7	12.3	13.0
Cleveland	Pittsburgh	-12.6	-12.9	-12.1
Houston	Jacksonville	9.9	10.1	11.9
Indianapolis	Tennessee	9.7	10.0	10.5
Kansas City	Oakland	12.7	12.1	13.5
Dallas	Washington	3.3	1.5	0.4
NY Giants	Philadelphia	3.6	3.8	3.5
Chicago	Detroit	-0.2	0.4	0.2
Green Bay	Minnesota	2.9	2.6	0.5
Denver	San Diego	10.2	9.5	10.0
Arizona	Seattle	6.2	6.9	8.2
San Francisco	St. Louis	0.4	-1.7	-0.6

NFL Preview For Week 14: December 10-14, 2015

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
N.Y. Giants	100.7	100.6	100.9	100.7	5-7-0	307	296
Philadelphia	100.1	99.8	100.5	100.1	5-7-0	278	302
Dallas	100.7	99.6	100.1	100.1	4-8-0	223	277
Washington	95.9	95.6	95.8	95.8	5-7-0	257	286
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Green Bay	105.2	104.3	104.5	104.7	8-4-0	289	238
Minnesota	100.2	99.4	101.4	100.3	8-4-0	238	232
Chicago	99.1	99.1	99.7	99.3	5-7-0	251	290
Detroit	99.7	98.6	98.7	99.0	4-8-0	253	315
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Carolina	107.6	107.6	108.6	107.9	12-0-0	373	243
Atlanta	97.0	96.5	96.2	96.6	6-6-0	279	257
Tampa Bay	96.0	96.5	95.9	96.1	6-6-0	271	298
New Orleans	93.6	91.8	93.4	92.9	4-8-0	299	380
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Arizona	109.3	109.1	110.4	109.6	10-2-0	382	232
Seattle	109.0	108.5	109.0	108.8	7-5-0	305	229
San Francisco	96.0	95.2	96.7	96.0	4-8-0	178	291
St. Louis	93.9	94.1	93.2	93.7	4-8-0	189	257
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New England	108.6	108.2	107.6	108.1	10-2-0	375	247
Buffalo	101.8	102.9	102.5	102.4	6-6-0	296	278
N. Y. Jets	100.6	101.1	100.4	100.7	7-5-0	295	248
Miami	97.3	97.4	96.6	97.1	5-7-0	240	300
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Cincinnati	108.7	109.9	110.3	109.6	10-2-0	334	196
Pittsburgh	106.9	106.7	106.2	106.6	7-5-0	311	240
Baltimore	100.1	99.4	99.2	99.6	4-8-0	272	291
Cleveland	90.3	89.3	89.3	89.6	2-10-0	216	347
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Houston	98.6	99.9	99.2	99.2	6-6-0	253	264
Indianapolis	98.2	98.8	98.8	98.6	6-6-0	259	305
Jacksonville	91.9	93.9	91.6	92.5	4-8-0	275	341
Tennessee	91.8	92.1	91.6	91.8	3-9-0	245	296
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Kansas City	105.7	106.9	106.7	106.4	7-5-0	321	240
Denver	105.3	105.1	105.8	105.4	10-2-0	269	210
Oakland	95.2	97.1	94.8	95.7	5-7-0	284	314
San Diego	95.0	95.0	94.4	94.8	3-9-0	247	324

 

This Week’s Games
Week Number:	14
Date of Games:	December 10-14
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Arizona	Minnesota	12.1	12.7	12.0
Philadelphia	Buffalo	0.8	-0.6	0.5
Cleveland	San Francisco	-2.7	-2.9	-4.4
St. Louis	Detroit	-3.3	-2.0	-3.0
Tampa Bay	New Orleans	4.9	7.2	5.0
NY Jets	Tennessee	11.3	11.5	11.3
Cincinnati	Pittsburgh	3.8	5.2	6.1
Houston	New England	-7.0	-5.3	-5.4
Jacksonville	Indianapolis	-3.8	-2.4	-4.7
Kansas City	San Diego	13.7	14.9	15.3
Chicago	Washington	5.7	6.0	6.4
Carolina	Atlanta	12.6	13.1	14.4
Denver	Oakland	12.6	10.5	13.5
Green Bay	Dallas	7.0	7.2	6.9
Baltimore	Seattle	-5.4	-5.6	-6.3
Miami	NY Giants	-0.9	-0.7	-1.8

 

N F L  Playoffs Roundup

If Season Ended Today
AFC
1	Denver
2	Cincinnati
3	New England
4	Indianapolis
5	Kansas City
6	New York Jets
NFC
1	Carolina
2	Arizona
3	Green Bay
4	Washington
5	Minnesota
6	Seattle

 

NFL Playoff Projections
AFC SEED	TEAM
1	Denver
2	New England
3	Cincinnati
4	Houston
5	Kansas City
6	New York Jets
NFC SEED	TEAM
1	Carolina
2	Arizona
3	Green Bay
4	Philadelphia
5	Seattle
6	Minnesota
Wildcard Playoff Round
Green Bay over Minnesota
Seattle over Philadelphia
New York Jets over Cincinnati
Kansas City over Houston
Divisional Playoff Round
Carolina over Seattle
Arizona over Green Bay
New York Jets over Denver
Kansas City over New England
Conference Championship Round
Arizona over Carolina
Kansas City over New York Jets
Super Bowl 50
Kansas City over Arizona

NFL Preview For Week 13: December 3-7, 2015

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
N.Y. Giants	100.7	100.6	100.9	100.7	5-6-0	287	273
Dallas	100.6	99.3	99.8	99.9	3-8-0	204	261
Philadelphia	97.4	96.8	97.4	97.2	4-7-0	243	274
Washington	96.0	95.9	96.1	96.0	5-6-0	241	267
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Green Bay	105.1	104.3	104.5	104.6	7-4-0	262	215
Minnesota	103.2	102.4	104.4	103.3	8-3-0	231	194
Chicago	99.6	100.0	100.8	100.1	5-6-0	231	264
Detroit	99.8	98.6	98.7	99.0	4-7-0	230	288
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Carolina	108.1	108.5	109.7	108.8	11-0-0	332	205
Atlanta	97.2	96.7	96.5	96.8	6-5-0	260	234
Tampa Bay	95.8	96.3	95.6	95.9	5-6-0	248	279
New Orleans	93.1	90.9	92.3	92.1	4-7-0	261	339
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Arizona	108.1	107.6	108.7	108.1	9-2-0	355	229
Seattle	106.0	105.5	106.0	105.8	6-5-0	267	222
St. Louis	95.1	95.6	94.9	95.2	4-7-0	186	230
San Francisco	95.5	94.3	95.6	95.1	3-8-0	152	271
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New England	111.3	111.2	110.7	111.1	10-1-0	347	212
Buffalo	101.4	102.3	101.7	101.8	5-6-0	266	257
N. Y. Jets	100.6	101.1	100.4	100.7	6-5-0	272	228
Miami	96.9	97.3	96.0	96.7	4-7-0	225	287
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Cincinnati	106.0	107.1	107.2	106.8	9-2-0	297	193
Pittsburgh	103.6	103.4	102.9	103.3	6-5-0	266	230
Baltimore	100.5	99.5	99.8	99.9	4-7-0	259	276
Cleveland	93.0	92.1	92.4	92.5	2-9-0	213	310
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis	101.5	102.1	102.1	101.9	6-5-0	249	260
Houston	99.0	100.5	100.0	99.8	6-5-0	232	234
Jacksonville	91.9	94.2	91.6	92.6	4-7-0	236	299
Tennessee	91.8	91.8	91.6	91.7	2-9-0	203	257
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Kansas City	105.3	106.2	105.9	105.8	6-5-0	287	220
Denver	104.6	104.1	104.6	104.4	9-2-0	252	207
Oakland	95.6	97.8	95.6	96.3	5-6-0	264	280
San Diego	95.7	96.0	95.6	95.8	3-8-0	244	307

 

This Week’s Games
Week Number:	13
Date of Games:	December 3-7
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Detroit	Green Bay	-2.8	-3.2	-3.3
NY Giants	NY Jets	0.1	-0.5	0.5
St. Louis	Arizona	-10.0	-9.0	-10.8
Tampa Bay	Atlanta	1.1	2.1	2.6
New Orleans	Carolina	-12.5	-15.1	-14.9
Minnesota	Seattle	0.2	-0.1	1.4
Buffalo	Houston	5.4	4.8	4.7
Miami	Baltimore	-0.6	0.8	-0.8
Cleveland	Cincinnati	-11.0	-13.0	-12.8
Tennessee	Jacksonville	2.4	0.1	2.5
Chicago	San Francisco	7.1	8.7	8.2
San Diego	Denver	-5.9	-5.1	-6.0
Oakland	Kansas City	-6.7	-5.4	-7.3
New England	Philadelphia	16.9	17.4	16.3
Pittsburgh	Indianapolis	5.1	4.3	3.8
Washington	Dallas	-1.6	-0.4	-0.7

 

NFL Playoffs

If Season Ended Today
AFC
1	New England
2	Cincinnati
3	Denver
4	Indianapolis
5	Kansas City
6	Houston
NFC
1	Carolina
2	Arizona
3	Minnesota
4	Washington
5	Green Bay
6	Seattle

 

NFL Playoff Projections

NFL Playoff Projections
AFC SEED	TEAM
1	New England
2	Denver
3	Cincinnati
4	Indianapolis
5	Kansas City
6	Pittsburgh
NFC SEED	TEAM
1	Carolina
2	Arizona
3	Minnesota
4	Washington
5	Green Bay
6	Seattle
Wildcard Playoff Round
Cincinnati over Pittsburgh
Kansas City over Indianapolis
Seattle over Minnesota
Green Bay over Washington
Divisional Playoff Round
New England over Kansas City
Denver over Cincinnati
Carolina over Seattle
Arizona over Green Bay
Conference Championship Round
New England over Denver
Arizona over Carolina
Super Bowl 50
Arizona over New England

 

NFL Preview For Week 10: November 13-17, 2015

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Philadelphia	104.0	103.4	104.5	104.0	4-4-0	193	164
Dallas	102.7	101.1	102.2	102.0	2-6-0	160	204
N.Y. Giants	100.6	100.6	101.1	100.8	5-4-0	247	226
Washington	94.7	94.5	94.5	94.6	3-5-0	158	195
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Green Bay	105.9	105.1	105.3	105.4	6-2-0	203	167
Minnesota	102.2	100.7	103.1	102.0	6-2-0	168	140
Chicago	95.5	95.6	96.1	95.7	3-5-0	162	221
Detroit	96.2	94.4	94.7	95.1	1-7-0	149	245
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Carolina	104.9	105.1	105.8	105.3	8-0-0	228	165
Atlanta	98.8	98.6	98.8	98.7	6-3-0	229	190
New Orleans	97.3	95.0	97.1	96.5	4-5-0	241	268
Tampa Bay	91.7	92.4	91.4	91.8	3-5-0	181	231
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Arizona	107.2	106.8	108.1	107.4	6-2-0	263	153
Seattle	106.5	105.7	106.1	106.1	4-4-0	167	140
St. Louis	98.7	99.7	99.3	99.2	4-4-0	153	146
San Francisco	95.2	93.8	95.0	94.7	3-6-0	126	223
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New England	112.5	113.0	113.0	112.8	8-0-0	276	143
Buffalo	100.6	101.2	100.1	100.6	4-4-0	209	190
N. Y. Jets	100.3	100.8	100.5	100.5	5-3-0	200	162
Miami	97.8	98.6	97.0	97.8	3-5-0	171	206
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Cincinnati	106.6	107.7	107.7	107.3	8-0-0	229	142
Pittsburgh	102.9	103.1	102.6	102.9	5-4-0	206	182
Baltimore	102.0	100.9	101.7	101.5	2-6-0	190	214
Cleveland	93.8	92.9	93.4	93.4	2-7-0	177	247
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis	100.7	101.1	100.8	100.9	4-5-0	200	227
Houston	95.2	96.6	94.9	95.6	3-5-0	174	205
Tennessee	93.0	92.8	93.2	93.0	2-6-0	159	187
Jacksonville	90.8	94.0	90.5	91.8	2-6-0	170	235
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Denver	107.1	106.3	106.6	106.7	7-1-0	192	139
Kansas City	100.5	101.4	100.9	100.9	3-5-0	195	182
Oakland	96.6	99.9	96.8	97.8	4-4-0	213	211
San Diego	97.5	97.2	97.2	97.3	2-7-0	210	249

 

This Week’s Games
Week Number:	10
Date of Games:	November 12-16
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
NY Jets	Buffalo	1.7	1.6	2.4
Green Bay	Detroit	11.7	12.7	12.6
Tampa Bay	Dallas	-8.5	-6.2	-8.3
Tennessee	Carolina	-8.9	-9.3	-9.6
St. Louis	Chicago	5.2	6.1	5.2
Washington	New Orleans	0.4	2.5	0.4
Philadelphia	Miami	9.2	7.8	10.5
Pittsburgh	Cleveland	11.6	12.7	11.7
Baltimore	Jacksonville	14.2	9.9	14.2
Oakland	Minnesota	-2.6	2.2	-3.3
NY Giants	New England	-9.4	-9.9	-9.4
Denver	Kansas City	9.6	7.9	8.7
Seattle	Arizona	2.3	1.9	1.0
Cincinnati	Houston	14.4	14.1	15.8

 

If Season Ended Today
AFC
1	New England
2	Cincinnati
3	Denver
4	Indianapolis
5	N. Y. Jets
6	Pittsburgh
NFC
1	Carolina
2	Minnesota
3	Arizona
4	N. Y. Giants
5	Green Bay
6	Atlanta

 

NFL Playoff Projections
AFC SEED	TEAM
1	New England
2	Cincinnati
3	Denver
4	Indianapolis
5	N. Y. Jets
6	Pittsburgh
NFC SEED	TEAM
1	Carolina
2	Arizona
3	Green Bay
4	Philadelphia
5	Minnesota
6	Seattle
Wildcard Playoff Round
Denver over Pittsburgh
N. Y. Jets over Indianapolis
Green Bay over Seattle
Minnesota over Philadelphia
Divisional Playoff Round
New England over N. Y. Jets
Cincinnati over Denver
Carolina over Minnesota
Arizona over Green Bay
Conference Championship Round
New England over Cincinnati
Arizona over Carolina
Super Bowl 50
New England over Arizona