2019 American Athletic Conference Football Preview

Today, we wrap up the Group of 5 Conference previews with the American Athletic Conference.  The AAC has seen its champion represent the Group of 5 conferences in a New Year’s 6 Bowl Game three times in the five years of the current rules set in place.  While this league is the strongest Group of 5 league to start 2019, we selected Army to be our predicted G5 team to make an NY6 Bowl bid this year.

This is a league about to undergo some transition.  Connecticut will return to the Big East after in 2020, and there will be an opening for another school to join the AAC.  It could be U Mass, Army, or Liberty, but it could also be somebody like Buffalo from the Mid-American Conference or possibly a new FCS school deciding to jump to FBS, like Villanova.

As for this season, the AAC should be a little more competitive than in the recent past.  Central Florida has dominated the league for two consecutive years, and the Golden Knights will be an excellent team once again this year.  However, teams like Cincinnati, Temple, Memphis, and maybe one or two dark horses will make UCF’s path to a “threepeat” quite difficult.

Here is how the American Athletic Conference Media voted in their preseason poll.

American Athletic Conference Media Poll
East Division
Pos.	Team	1st Place Votes	Overall Votes
1	Central Florida	19	169
2	Cincinnati	11	157
3	South Florida	0	107
4	Temple	0	101
5	East Carolina	0	66
6	Connecticut	0	30
West Division
Pos.	Team	1st Place Votes	Overall Votes
1	Memphis	15	165
2	Houston	14	162
3	Tulane	0	108
4	SMU	1	87
5	Navy	0	70
6	Tulsa	0	38
	Championship Game Winner		Overall Votes
	Central Florida		12
	Cincinnati		8
	Memphis		6
	Houston		4

 

Here are our preseason PiRate Ratings.

Preseason PiRate Ratings–American Athletic
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Central Florida	107.7	107.1	108.8	107.9
Cincinnati	106.6	105.0	106.8	106.1
Temple	101.9	101.0	103.2	102.0
South Florida	94.4	95.9	94.9	95.1
East Carolina	85.0	87.6	84.9	85.8
Connecticut	75.9	77.9	74.4	76.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Memphis	104.0	103.3	105.2	104.2
SMU	98.7	98.4	98.9	98.7
Houston	95.0	96.7	97.8	96.5
Tulane	95.4	96.6	95.5	95.8
Tulsa	91.3	91.9	92.3	91.8
Navy	86.3	89.2	85.9	87.2
AAC Averages	95.2	95.9	95.7	95.6

Note:  These preseason ratings are accurate as of August 1, 2019, and subject to change before the first week of the season due to personnel changes prior to the first week of the season.

 

Predicted Won-Loss Records

The PiRate Ratings were not created to forecast won-loss records like other ratings might attempt.  Our ratings are valid for just the next game on the teams’ schedules, and we have pre-set adjustments built into our ratings on many teams.  For instance, if a team has exceptional starting talent but little depth, their rating has a pre-set reduction per week of the season, so that even if they win or lose a game by the exact expected margin, they will lose some of their power rating due to their depth issues.

If a team has exceptional, but inexperienced talent, their rating will have a pre-set addition per week of the season, and even if their performance may be exactly what was expected, their power rating will rise.

What you see in these predicted won-loss records are our opinion and not calculated from the ratings.  These are the estimated records based on a vote, with the Captain having 50% of the vote and the crew having the other 50%.  The Captain then rounded up or down those teams picked to have an average wins that were not whole numbers.

 

PiRate Members Predicted Won-Loss
East Division
Pos	Team	Conference	Overall
1	Cincinnati	6-2	9-4
2	Central Florida	6-2	9-3
3	Temple	5-3	9-3
4	South Florida	5-3	6-6
5	East Carolina	2-6	5-7
6	Connecticut	0-8	1-11
West Division
Pos	Team	Conference	Overall
1	Memphis	6-2	10-3*
2	SMU	5-3	8-4
3	Houston	5-3	7-5
4	Tulane	4-4	6-6
5	Navy	3-5	4-8
6	Tulsa	1-7	3-9
*	Memphis Picked To Win AAC Championship Game

 

Bowl Predictions
Birmingham	SMU
Boca Raton	Central Florida
Cure	Temple
Frisco	Houston
Gasparilla	Cincinnati
Hawaii	Memphis
Military	South Florida

Also Bowl Eligible

Tulane

 

Coaches That Could Move To Power 5 Conferences

Luke Fickell, Cincinnati

Josh Heupel, Central Florida

Mike Norvell, Memphis

Willie Fritz, Tulane

 

Coaches On The Hot Seat

Randy Edsall, Connecticut

Phillip Montgomery, Tulsa

 

Top Quarterbacks

D’Eriq King, Houston

Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati

Brady White, Memphis

 

Top Offense

Central Florida

Memphis

Houston

 

Top Defense

Temple

Memphis

Cincinnati

 

Coming Tomorrow: We start previewing Power 5 Conferences with the ACC

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PiRate Ratings NCAA Tournament For Friday, March 22, 2019

Home	Rating	HCA	Visitor	Rating	Spread
Cincinnati	110.8	1.5	Iowa	111.1	1.2
Ole Miss	110.3	0.0	Oklahoma	110.7	-0.4
Texas Tech	117.8	0.0	Northern Kentucky	104.5	13.3
Kansas St.	112.7	0.0	UC-Irvine	106.2	6.5
Tennessee	118.3	0.0	Colgate	102.8	15.5
Gardner-Webb	99.5	1.0	Virginia	121.1	-20.6
Buffalo	115.0	0.0	Arizona St.	107.9	7.1
Wisconsin	115.1	0.0	Oregon	109.7	5.4
Utah St.	111.3	0.0	Washington	108.8	2.5
Duke	123.1	0.0	North Dakota St.	97.9	25.2
Houston	114.8	0.0	Georgia St.	103.9	10.9
Mississippi St.	113.9	0.0	Liberty	106.7	7.2
North Carolina	121.7	0.0	Iona	97.8	23.9
Virginia Commonwealth	110.7	0.0	Central Florida	109.4	1.3
Iowa St.	114.8	0.0	Ohio St.	109.9	4.9
Virginia Tech	115.5	0.0	Saint Louis	104.1	11.4

 

Today’s Schedule

All Times EDT

TIME	MATCHUP	NETWORK	SITE
12:15 PM	(10) Iowa vs. (7) Cincinnati	CBS	Columbus
12:40 PM	(9) Oklahoma vs. (8) Ole Miss	truTV	Columbia
1:30 PM	(14) Northern Kentucky vs. (3) Texas Tech	TNT	Tulsa
2 PM	(13) UC Irvine vs. (4) Kansas State	TBS	San Jose
Approx. 3 PM	(15) Colgate vs. (2) Tennessee	CBS	Columbus
Approx. 3:25 PM	(16) Gardner-Webb vs. (1) Virginia	truTV	Columbia
Approx. 4:15 PM	(11) St. John’s / Arizona State vs. (6) Buffalo	TNT	Tulsa
Approx. 4:45 PM	(12) Oregon vs. (5) Wisconsin	TBS	San Jose
6:50 PM	(9) Washington vs. (8) Utah State	TNT	Columbus
7:10 PM	(16) NC Central / North Dakota St. vs. (1) Duke	CBS	Columbia
7:20 PM	(14) Georgia State vs. (3) Houston	TBS	Tulsa
7:27 PM	(12) Liberty vs. (5) Mississippi State	truTV	San Jose
Approx. 9:35 PM	(16) Iona vs. (1) North Carolina	TNT	Columbus
Approx. 9:55 PM	(9) UCF vs. (8) VCU	CBS	Columbia
Approx. 10:05 PM	(11) Ohio State vs. (6) Iowa State	TBS	Tulsa
Approx. 10:12 PM	(13) Saint Louis vs. (4) Virginia Tech	truTV	San Jose

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Sunday, March 17, 2019

Today’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home

Rating

HCA

Visitor

Rating

Spread

Houston	114.9	0.0	Cincinnati	111.1	3.8
Saint Louis	102.6	0.0	St. Bonaventure	102.2	0.4
Michigan St.	120.9	0.0	Michigan	118.5	2.4
Yale	106.0	2.5	Harvard	103.0	5.5
Tennessee	119.0	1.0	Auburn	115.8	4.2
Georgia St.	103.2	0.0	UT-Arlington	99.3	3.9

Late Saturday Night Bracketology Update

Includes Oregon’s Championship Win in the Pac-12

March 17, 2019 (AM Edition)
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Duke	Virginia	Gonzaga	North Carolina
2	Michigan St.	Tennessee	Michigan	Kentucky
3	Houston	Purdue	Texas Tech	LSU
4	Florida St.	Kansas St.	Wisconsin	Kansas
5	Auburn	Villanova	Virginia Tech	Mississippi St.
6	Buffalo	Marquette	Cincinnati	Iowa St.
7	Wofford	Maryland	Louisville	Nevada
8	Iowa	Seton Hall	Minnesota	Washington
9	Ole Miss	Syracuse	Baylor	Central Florida
10	Virginia Commonwealth	Utah St.	Ohio St.	Oklahoma
11	Oregon	TCU	Temple/North Carolina St.	St. John’s/Florida
12	Saint Mary’s	Murray St.	New Mexico St.	Vermont
13	Liberty	UC-Irvine	Old Dominion	Montana
14	St. Louis	Northeastern	Northern Kentucky	Georgia St.
15	Yale	Bradley	Colgate	Abilene Christian
16	Gardner-Webb	Prairie View A&M	Iona/Fairleigh-Dickinson	N. Dakota St./UNC Central

 

Last 4 Bye	Virginina Commonwealth	Ohio St.	Oklahoma	TCU
Last 4 In	Temple	Florida	St. John’s	North Carolina St.

 

First 4 Out	Arizona St.	Belmont	UNC Greensboro	Furman
Next 4 Out	Indiana	Alabama	Clemson	Texas

 

The Bracket Gurus Take Over The Bracketology Seeding Sunday

Next Bracketology Update–Sunday Early Afternoon

Final Bracketology Update–Once Big Ten Championship Game Winner is Known

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Sunday, March 10, 2019

Today’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Rating	HCA	Visitor	Rating	Spread
Lipscomb	109.0	3.0	Liberty	105.9	6.1
Radford	102.7	2.5	Gardner-Webb	99.3	5.9
Hofstra	106.5	0.0	James Madison	93.8	12.7
William & Mary	97.6	0.0	Delaware	94.7	2.9
Northeastern	105.6	0.0	UNC Wilmington	94.7	10.9
Charleston	103.4	1.0	Drexel	95.2	9.2
Siena	95.4	2.5	Iona	97.7	0.2
Canisius	95.1	0.0	Monmouth	93.3	1.8
Northern Iowa	99.1	0.0	Bradley	99.5	-0.4
Colgate	102.1	2.5	Navy	92.8	11.8
Bucknell	101.4	2.5	Lehigh	100.3	3.6
Wofford	112.9	0.0	East Tennessee St.	106.6	6.3
UNC Greensboro	105.5	0.0	Furman	107.9	-2.4
North Dakota St.	97.5	0.0	Oral Roberts	92.8	4.7
South Dakota	97.4	1.0	Purdue Fort Wayne	98.7	-0.3
Cincinnati	111.8	3.0	Houston	114.5	0.3
Penn St.	109.9	2.5	Illinois	106.5	5.9
Indiana	110.4	3.0	Rutgers	106.3	7.1
East Carolina	93.7	2.5	Connecticut	105.2	-9.0
Nebraska	110.5	3.0	Iowa	110.8	2.7
South Florida	103.5	3.0	SMU	103.8	2.7
Ohio St.	110.3	3.0	Wisconsin	115.5	-2.2

Conference Tournaments Update

America East Conference
All games at home floor of higher seeds
Quarterfinals–Saturday, March 9
Md.-Baltimore Co.	62	Albany	54
Vermont	73	Maine	57
Binghamton	73	Stony Brook	71
Hartford	78	UMass Lowell	70

 

Semifinals–Tuesday, March 12
Seed	Home	Seed	Visitor
1	Vermont (25-6)	7	Binghamton (10-22)
3	Maryland-Baltimore Co. (20-12)	4	Hartford (18-14)

 

 

Atlantic Sun Conference

*** Championship Game–Sunday, March 10 ***
Seed	Home	Seed	Visitor
1	Lipscomb (25-6)	2	Liberty (27-6)

 

 

Big South Conference

*** Championship Game–Sunday, March 10 (at Radford) ***
Seed	Home Team	Seed	Visitors
2	Radford (22-10)	4	Gardner-Webb (22-11)

 

 

Colonial Athletic Association
Site: North Charleston Coliseum, North Charleston, SC
First Round–Saturday, March 9
James Madison	74	Towson	73
UNC Wilmington	93	Elon	86

Quarterfinals–Sunday, March 10
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Hofstra (25-6)	8	James Madison (14-18)
4	William & Mary (14-16)	5	Delaware (16-15)
2	Northeastern (20-10)	10	UNC Wilmington (10-22)
3	Charleston (23-8)	6	Drexel (13-18)

 

 

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

Site: Times Union Center, Albany, NY (Siena)

Quarterfinals–Saturday, March 9
Monmouth	98	Quinnipiac	92
Siena	87	Rider	81

 

Semifinals–Sunday, March 10
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Iona (15-15)	5	Siena (17-15)
2	Canisius (15-16)	6	Monmouth (13-20)

 

 

Missouri Valley Conference (Arch Madness)
Site: Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO
Semifinals–Saturday, March 9
Bradley	53	Loyola (Chi)	51
Northern Iowa	60	Drake	58

*** Championship Game–Sunday, March 10 ***
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
6	Northern Iowa (16-17)	5	Bradley (19-14)

 

Northeast Conference
All games at home floor of higher seeds
Semifinals–Saturday, March 9
St. Francis (PA)	72	Long Island	64
Fairleigh-Dickinson	66	Robert Morris	62

 

Championship Game–Tuesday, March 12
Seed	Home	Seed	Visitor
1	St. Francis (PA) (18-13)	2	Fairleigh-Dickinson (19-13)

 

 

Ohio Valley Conference
*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 9 ***
Murray St.	77	Belmont	65

Champion:  Murray St.  27-4

 

 

 

Patriot League

All games at home floor of higher seeds

Semifinals–Sunday, March 10
Seed	Home	Seed	Visitor
1	Colgate (22-10)	5	Navy (12-18)
2	Bucknell (20-10)	3	Lehigh (20-10)

 

 

Southern Conference
Site: US Cellular Center, Asheville, NC
Quarterfinals–Saturday, March 9
Wofford	99	VMI	72
East Tennessee St.	68	Chattanooga	64
UNC Greensboro	77	Samford	70
Furman	85	Mercer	74

 

Semifinals–Sunday, March 10
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Wofford (27-4)	4/5	East Tennessee St. (24-8)
2	UNC Greensboro (27-5)	3	Furman (25-6)

 

 

Summit League
Site: Denny Sanford Premier Center, Sioux Falls, SD
Quarterfinals–Saturday, March 9
Western Illinois	79	South Dakota St.	76
Omaha	81	North Dakota	76

 

Quarterfinals–Sunday, March 10
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
4	Purdue Fort Wayne (17-14)	5	South Dakota (13-16)
3	North Dakota St. (15-15)	6	Oral Roberts (11-20)

 

 

West Coast Conference
Site: Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Quarterfinals–Saturday, March 9
San Diego	80	BYU	57
Pepperdine	89	San Francisco	72

 

Semifinals–Monday, March 11
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
2	Saint Mary’s (20-11)	6	San Diego (21-13)
1	Gonzaga (29-2)	8	Pepperdine (16-17)

 

Teams In The Big Dance

Murray St.  (OVC)  27-4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Spreads For NCAA Tournament Games of Sunday, March 18

Sunday’s PiRate Rating Spreads For NCAA Tournament Games

Higher Seed	Lower Seed	Spread
Purdue	Butler	5.4
Michigan St.	Syracuse	8.5
North Carolina	Texas A&M	5.9
Cincinnati	Nevada	4.9
Auburn	Clemson	1.4
Kansas St.	MD-Baltimore Co.	9.8
Xavier	Florida St.	3.7
West Virginia	Marshall	10.2

Sunday’s TV Schedule

All times Eastern Daylight

Sunday, Mar 18, 2018
TIME	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	City	TV
12:10 PM	2 Purdue	10 Butler	Detroit	CBS
2:40 PM	3 Michigan St.	11 Syracuse	Detroit	CBS
5:15 PM	2 North Carolina	7 Texas A&M	Charlotte	CBS
6:10 PM	2 Cincinnati	7 Nevada	Nashville	TNT
7:10 PM	4 Auburn	5 Clemson	San Diego	TBS
7:45 PM	9 Kansas St.	16 MD-Baltimore Co.	Charlotte	TruTV
8:40 PM	1 Xavier	9 Florida St.	Nashville	TNT
9:40 PM	5 West Virginia	13 Marshall	San Diego	TBS

Bracket-Picking Criteria Results

Of the eight teams in the Sweet 16 as of Saturday night, we still have six teams alive.  Our picks went 6-2 and were within a half-second of going 8-0, as our two losses came on last-second shots in the Loyola-Tennessee and Michigan-Houston games.

For the tournament, our picks are now 32-12.

The New PiRate Ratings Bracketology Criteria have performed on par with the traditional criteria that we used for over 20 years.  We will wait until the championship before deciding if the new criteria was worth discarding the old method.

Here is a look at today’s games as the criteria applies to each of the eight contests.

Purdue vs. Butler
The big question is, “Will Isaac Haas play?” The next biggest question is, “If he plays, can he be anywhere near 100%?”

If Haas is able to give anything close to his regular contribution, Purdue is too strong for Butler. But, as we have already seen in this tournament, Virginia not having its best defender, and Tennessee not having one of its key big men available were contributing factors in losses. If Haas is not able to play, then Butler gains a major advantage in this game. The Boilermakers rely on Haas more for his offense than his defense, and it is true shooting percentage margin where Purdue is so superior in this contest. Remove Haas and his 66% TS%, and this advantage melts away somewhat.

PiRate Pick: Purdue

Michigan St. vs. Syracuse
This will be an interesting contest. The schedule strengths are identical, so we can look at the stats as if the two teams have played the same exact schedules. Michigan State has a clear true shooting percentage margin advantage and the Spartans also enjoy a modest R+T rating advantage.
The interest in this game comes from Michigan State’s issue against zone defenses. The Syracuse 2-3 matchup zone is tough to face the first time, and the Spartans had all of a day to study it and then implement a strategy against it.
It’s a different zone entirely, but Michigan State fared poorly twice against Michigan’s 1-3-1 trapping zone. Syracuse will trap out of their matchup zone as well.
On paper, Miles Bridges and Cassius Winston should thrive against zone defenses, but they did not hit from outside in one of the two games, and they turned the ball over against the traps the other. Maybe, the third time’s the charm? Or then maybe Syracuse is primed to make another surprise run to the Final Four? We’ll stick with Sparty.

PiRate Pick: Michigan St.

North Carolina vs. Texas A&M
North Carolina is almost playing at home, but Kansas just showed that having an in-state regional doesn’t guarantee two easy victories. However, the Jayhawks advanced, so the Tar Heels should get a little extra help with maybe a point or point and a half for playing so close to home as the state school where the tournament will be played.
The Tar Heels don’t need all that much extra oomph in the Big Dance. They are the defending champions, and they appear to be nearing peak performance at the right time.
Texas A&M is not going to be the weak victim. The Aggies will have the power to keep the inside game honest. A&M actually has a slightly better true shooting percentage margin than the Tar Heels, but North Carolina enjoys the R+T advantage. Down the road, North Carolina might struggle against a team that can force turnovers, but A&M isn’t one of those teams.

PiRate Pick: North Carolina

Cincinnati vs. Nevada
This game could be interesting for awhile, but Cincinnati is a bit too physical for the underdog Wolf Pack. The Bearcats’ R+T rating advantage is considerable here, and they enjoy a small true shooting percentage advantage as well. Eventually, Cinti will dominate on the glass, and this should lead to a run of several points, where the Bearcats send the Wolf Pack back to Reno, and that’s no gamble saying so.

PiRate Pick: Cincinnati

Auburn vs. Clemson
This is another one of those games where one key injury makes a huge difference in one team’s statistics. Auburn just narrowly escaped a first round upset bid by Charleston, and without a dominating or even contributing big man, the Tigers just aren’t the same team they were before Anfernee McLemore was lost for the season.

Clemson is not going to just show up and win this game, and they may not win even if they produce an A+ effort. Auburn still has a tough pressure defense on the perimeter, and Clemson has a negative turnover margin, so the War Eagles should get a couple extra scoring opportunities with steals.

However, when it comes down to it, Clemson has a decidedly better true shooting percentage margin and should be able to score inside enough times to win this battle again. CU enjoys a slightly better stength of schedule, and this should be the final nail in the coffin in this game.

PiRate Pick: Clemson

Kansas St. vs. MD-Baltimore Co.
Can they do it again? Is there any way a Number 16 seed can be one of the last 16 in the field? Here’s the funny thing about this game: Kansas State is precariously on the minimum R+T margin line to be picked against anybody in the tournament. Teams that rebound as poorly as Kansas State seldom make it very far in the NCAA Tournament. There are just a handful of teams in the last 50 years that won twice in one NCAA Tournament when their rebounding margin was worse than -3.
Maryland-Baltimore County would have been our pick in this game if the Terriers had a positive rebounding margin of 1.5 or better, but UMBC also has a negative rebounding margin. The Terriers might have been our pick if they held the true shooting percentage margin advantage in this game, but Kansas State has the better numbers here as well. Throw in the fact that the Wildcats’ schedule strength is about 15 points stronger than that of UMBC, and we just cannot pull the trigger on this one and take the most incredible long shot to ever make the Sweet 16.

PiRate Pick: Kansas St.

Xavier vs. Florida St.
This game should be the second most exciting game of the day. The Seminoles match up well with the top-seeded Musketeers, and this game should remain close for at least all of the first half and a good bit of the second half. Xavier has a slightly stronger schedule strength which makes their true shooting percentage margin and R+T rating advantages enough to matter. The margin of safety in this game is rather small, almost nonexistent, so a cold shooting day by Xavier could be enough to turn this game the other way.

PiRate Pick: Xavier

West Virginia vs.Marshall
We saved the best for last. In case you didn’t know, there is more than just a Round of 32 game here. These two in-state rivals don’t get along, and it’s almost as hated as Xavier and Cincinnati. It carries over to the two coaches, as they don’t really like each other.
When there is a game like this, the smaller school almost always benefits in some way.

Marshall is a woman scorned as these teams prepare to face off in a foreign land known as San Diego. West Virginia refuses to play Marshall in basketball (and football), unless the Mountaineers get two home games for every Thundering Herd home game.
What about the game itself? This will be the most interesting game of the day. Press Virginia’s defense may not exploit much in the way Marshall attacks it. The Herd had no difficulty facing Middle Tennessee’s trapping defense, as they pasted the CUSA regular season champions both times they faced them.

Alas, there is one important rule that we always follow at the PiRate Ratings. Whenever a team in the NCAA Tournament had a negative R+T Rating, we select the other team as long as that team has a positive R+T Rating. Marshall’s R+T Rating is -4.8, while the Mountaineers have a 16.6 R+T, and that is enough to give WVU about 18 more scoring opportunities. Marshall would have to hit about 18 three-pointers to neutralize that advantage.

PiRate Pick: West Virginia

Original PiRate Ratings Bracketology Sunday Teams Picked for Sweet 16
All 8 of our original picks are still alive today.
Cincinnati
Xavier
North Carolina
West Virginia
Texas Tech
Purdue
Clemson
Michigan St.

 

PiRate Ratings Spreads For NCAA Tournament Games of Friday, March 16

Friday’s PiRate Rating Spreads For NCAA Tournament Games

Higher Seed	Lower Seed	Spread
Texas A&M	Providence	3.8
Purdue	Cal St. Fullerton	17.0
Wichita St.	Marshall	9.4
Cincinnati	Georgia St.	12.7
North Carolina	Lipscomb	17.4
Arkansas	Butler	-1.2
West Virginia	Murray St.	6.3
Nevada	Texas	2.5
Creighton	Kansas St.	2.5
Michigan St.	Bucknell	12.8
Xavier	Texas Southern	20.0
Auburn	Charleston	11.9
Virginia	MD-Baltimore Co.	20.6
TCU	Syracuse	4.3
Missouri	Florida St.	-1.1
Clemson	New Mexico St.	4.1

Today’s NCAA Tournament Schedule

Friday, Mar 16, 2018
TIME	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	City	TV
12:15 PM	7 Texas A&M	10 Providence	Charlotte	CBS
12:40 PM	2 Purdue	15 Cal St. Fullerton	Detroit	truTV
1:30 PM	4 Wichita St.	13 Marshall	San Diego	TNT
2:00 PM	2 Cincinnati	15 Georgia St.	Nashville	TBS
2:45 PM	2 North Carolina	15 Lipscomb	Charlotte	CBS
3:10 PM	7 Arkansas	10 Butler	Detroit	truTV
4:00 PM	5 West Virginia	12 Murray St.	San Diego	TNT
4:30 PM	7 Nevada	10 Texas	Nashville	TBS
6:50 PM	8 Creighton	9 Kansas St.	Charlotte	TNT
7:10 PM	3 Michigan St.	14 Bucknell	Detroit	CBS
7:20 PM	1 Xavier	16 Texas Southern	Nashville	TBS
7:27 PM	4 Auburn	13 Charleston	San Diego	truTV
9:20 PM	1 Virginia	16 MD-Baltimore Co.	Charlotte	TNT
9:40 PM	6 TCU	11 Syracuse	Detroit	CBS
9:50 PM	8 Missouri	9 Florida St.	Nashville	TBS
9:57 PM	5 Clemson	12 New Mexico St.	San Diego	truTV

Saturday’s Schedule

Saturday, Mar 17, 2018
TIME	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	City	TV
12:10 PM	1 Villanova	9 Alabama	Pittsburgh	CBS
2:40 PM	2 Duke	7 Rhode Island	Pittsburgh	CBS
5:15 PM	5 Kentucky	13 Buffalo	Boise, ID	CBS
6:10 PM	3 Tennessee	11 Loyola (Chi.)	Dallas	TNT
7:10 PM	1 Kansas	8 Seton Hall	Wichita, KS	TBS
7:45 PM	4 Gonzaga	5 Ohio St.	Boise, ID	CBS
8:40 PM	3 North Texas	6 Florida	Dallas	TNT
9:40 PM	3 Michigan	6 Houston	Wichita, KS	TBS

Bracket Results To Date: 15-5

Today’s Criteria Bracket Picks

Virginia over Maryland-Baltimore Co.

Creighton over Kansas St.

Texas over Nevada

Cincinnati over Georgia St.

Xavier over Texas Southern

Missouri over Florida St.

Texas A&M over Providence

North Carolina over Lipscomb

West Virginia over Murray St.

Wichita St. over Marshall

Butler over Arkansas

Purdue over Cal. St. Fullerton

Clemson over New Mexico St.

Auburn over College of Charleston

Syracuse over TCU

Michigan St. over Bucknell

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Conference Tournament Update–March 11 , 2018

Sunday’s PiRate Ratings Spreads for Conference Tournament Championships

Higher Seed	Lower Seed	Spread
Harvard	Penn	-1.4
Rhode Island	Davidson	2.8
Tennessee	Kentucky	1.1
Georgia St.	Texas-Arlington	0.9
Cincinnati	Houston	4.8

 

Sunday’s Conference Championship Schedule

All Times EDT

Time	Conference	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	Ivy League	Harvard	Penn	ESPN2
1:00 PM	Atlantic 10	Rhode Island	Davidson	CBS
1:00 PM	Southeastern	Tennessee	Kentucky	ESPN
2:00 PM	Sun Belt	Georgia St.	Texas-Arlington	ESPN2
3:30 PM	American	Cincinnati	Houston	CBS

Note:  Our Final Bracket Gurus Bracketology prediction will appear on this site roughly 30 minutes after the conclusion of the Atlantic 10 Championship Game.  Davidson is a potential bid-stealer, and until our gurus know whether they have earned an automatic bid or have been eliminated, they cannot fix the Bubble.  There are about a half-dozen teams that will sweat it out during today’s Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament Championship.

Teams That Have Earned Automatic Bids Through Sunday, 6:00 AM EDT

Team	Bid	Conf.	W-L	Avg Score
Arizona	AUTO	P12	27-7	81-71
Bucknell	AUTO	Patriot	25-9	81-73
Buffalo	AUTO	MAC	26-8	85-77
Cal St. Fullerton	AUTO	BWest	20-11	73-72
Charleston	AUTO	CAA	26-7	75-69
Gonzaga	AUTO	WCC	30-4	85-67
Iona	AUTO	MAAC	20-13	80-76
Kansas	AUTO	B12	27-7	82-71
Lipscomb	AUTO	A-SUN	23-9	83-78
Long Island	AUTO	NEC	18-16	78-77
Loyola (Chi.)	AUTO	MVC	28-5	72-62
Marshall	AUTO	CUSA	24-10	84-79
MD-Baltimore Co.	AUTO	AE	24-10	73-71
Michigan	AUTO	BTen	28-7	75-64
Montana	AUTO	BSky	26-7	78-69
Murray St.	AUTO	OVC	26-5	77-66
New Mexico St.	AUTO	WAC	28-5	76-65
Radford	AUTO	B-South	22-12	67-64
San Diego St.	AUTO	MWC	22-10	77-68
South Dakota St.	AUTO	Summit	28-6	85-74
Stephen F. Austin	AUTO	SLC	28-6	78-68
Texas Southern	AUTO	SWAC	15-19	78-80
UNC-Central	AUTO	MEAC	19-15	70-71
UNC-Greensboro	AUTO	SoCon	27-7	74-62
Villanova	AUTO	BE	30-4	87-71
Virginia	AUTO	ACC	31-2	68-53
Wright St.	AUTO	Horizon	25-9	72-66

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Conference Tournament Update–March 8 , 2018

Thursday’s PiRate Ratings NCAA Tournament Spreads

Higher Seed	Lower Seed	Spread
Connecticut	SMU	-5.7
Memphis	South Florida	7.4
Temple	Tulane	5.7
Central Florida	East Carolina	13.2
VCU	Dayton	1.3
George Mason	Massachusetts	-0.8
Richmond	Duquesne	0.9
St. Louis	George Washington	3.3
Virginia	Louisville	6.9
Clemson	Boston College	5.6
Duke	Notre Dame	9.3
Miami (Fla.)	North Carolina	-6.4
Kansas St.	TCU	-3.4
Kansas	Oklahoma St.	5.4
Texas Tech	Texas	4.7
West Virginia	Baylor	4.0
Xavier	St. John’s	7.4
Creighton	Providence	5.2
Villanova	Marquette	11.1
Seton Hall	Butler	-0.4
Montana	North Dakota	11.5
Weber St.	Northern Colorado	-2.0
Idaho	Southern Utah	9.4
Eastern Washington	Portland St.	1.6
UC-Davis	UC-Riverside	9.0
Cal St. Fullerton	Long Beach St.	1.6
UC-Irvine	Hawaii	4.5
UCSB	Cal Poly	12.4
Middle Tennessee	Southern Miss.	13.5
Marshall	UTSA	3.2
Old Dominion	Louisiana Tech	7.0
Western Kentucky	UAB	3.5
Buffalo	Central Michigan	7.1
Ball St.	Kent St.	3.2
Toledo	Miami (O)	5.6
Eastern Michigan	Akron	6.8
Savannah St.	UNC-Central	-1.8
North Carolina A&T	Norfolk St.	-0.1
Nevada	UNLV	8.8
Fresno St.	San Diego St.	-1.4
Boise St.	Utah St.	7.4
New Mexico	Wyoming	0.1
Arizona	Colorado	8.3
UCLA	Stanford	3.9
USC	Oregon St.	4.7
Utah	Oregon	0.4
Texas A&M	Alabama	2.3
Missouri	Georgia	2.4
Mississippi St.	LSU	-0.5
Arkansas	South Carolina	4.2
Sam Houston St.	New Orleans	2.0
Stephen F. Austin	Central Arkansas	5.3
Grand Canyon	UMKC	11.1
Utah Valley	Cal St. Bakersfield	10.2
New Mexico St.	Chicago St.	25.4
Seattle	Texas-Rio Grande Valley	3.4

One Team Earned An Automatic NCAA Tournament Bid on Wednesday

Patriot League Tournament
Bucknell 83	Colgate 54

No Automatic NCAA Tournament Bids Will Be Issued on Thursday

Teams That Have Earned An Automatic NCAA Tournament Bid

Team	Bid	Conf.	W-L
Bucknell	AUTO	Patriot	25-9
Charleston	AUTO	CAA	26-7
Gonzaga	AUTO	WCC	30-4
Iona	AUTO	MAAC	20-13
Lipscomb	AUTO	A-SUN	23-9
Long Island	AUTO	NEC	18-16
Loyola (Chi.)	AUTO	MVC	28-5
Michigan	AUTO	BTen	28-7
Murray St.	AUTO	OVC	26-5
Radford	AUTO	B-South	22-12
South Dakota St.	AUTO	Summit	28-6
UNC-Greensboro	AUTO	SoCon	27-7
Wright St.	AUTO	Horizon	25-9

Conference Tournaments Beginning Today

American Athletic Conference Tournament
Orlando, FL
First 3 Rounds EST/Championship EDT
First Round–March 8
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	#8 Connecticut	#9 SMU	ESPNU
2:30 PM	#5 Memphis	#12 South Florida	ESPNU
6:00 PM	#7 Temple	#10 Tulane	ESPNU
8:30 PM	#6 Central Florida	#11 East Carolina	ESPNU
Quarterfinals–March 9
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	#1 Cincinnati	UConn or SMU	ESPN2
2:30 PM	#4 Tulsa	Memphis or USF	ESPN2
6:00 PM	#2 Wichita St.	Temple or Tulane	ESPNU
8:30 PM	#3 Houston	UCF or ECU	ESPNU
Semifinals–March 10
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
1:00 PM	Cin/UConn/SMU	Tulsa/Mem/USF	CBS
3:30 PM	2, 7, or 10	Hou/UCF/ECU	CBS
Championship–March 11
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
3:00 PM			CBS

The top three seeds have NCAA bids guaranteed at this point, so it will take a 4-seed or lower for a bid to be stolen from this league.  Tulsa has promise.  On a given day, they can compete with the top three.  However, in order to win the conference tournament, Tulsa will have to have three solid given days and wins most likely over Memphis, Cincinnati, and Wichita St.  It isn’t very likely to happen.

On a neutral floor, Cincinnati’s great defense and Wichita State’s great offense should be adequate in stopping the rest of the league, and a rubber game between the top two teams is highly likely.

 

 

Big West Conference Tournament
Anaheim, CA
Top 8 Teams Qualify & Tournament Re-seeds for Semifinals
All Times PST
Quarterfinals–March 8
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	#1 UC-Davis	#8 UC-Riverside	FSWest
2:30 PM	#4 Cal St. Fullerton	#5 Long Beach St.	FSWest
6:00 PM	#3 UC-Irvine	#6 Hawaii	FSWest
8:30 PM	#2 UCSB	#7 Cal Poly	FSWest
Semifinals–March 9
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:30 PM	Highest Remaining	Lowest Remaining	ESPN3
9:00 PM	2nd Highest	3rd Highest	ESPN3
Championship–March 10
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
9:00 PM			ESPN2

In a one-bid league, the action is always exciting, as one slip up means curtains for any team.  In the Big West this year, no team has stepped up to become dominant over the rest of the league, and that should mean this tournament will be extremely exciting.

UC-Davis won its final five games of the regular season, but the Aggies won two of those games in overtime and another by just a point.  They were swept by 4th-seed Cal State Fullerton, a team that UCD would probably face again in the semifinals.

UCSB may have the best overall talent.  The Gauchos handle the ball better than any other team in the league, but they seldom force their opponents into mistakes.  They would need to be hot from the field to win the tournament.

 

Western Athletic Conference Tournament
Las Vegas
All Times PST
Quarterfinals–March 8
Time	Home	Visitors	TV
12:00 PM	#3 Grand Canyon	#6 UMKC	ESPN3
2:30 PM	#2 Utah Valley	#7 Cal St. Bakersfield	ESPN3
6:00 PM	#1 New Mexico St.	#8 Chicago St.	ESPN3
8:30 PM	#4 Seattle	#5 Texas-Rio Grande Valley	ESPN3
Semifinals–March 9
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:00 PM	GCU or UMKC	UVU or CSUB	ESPN3
8:30 PM	NMSU or CSU	Seattle or TRGV	ESPN3
Championship–March 10
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
7:00 PM			ESPNU

Sometimes, it’s the little known conference tournaments that provide both the most intrigue and excitement.  We here on the PiRate ship may be a little loopy from recent rough waters, but in our opinion, this might be the best conference tournament of all!

Start with New Mexico St.  The Aggies looked unbeatable in conference action earlier in the season.  Easy double digit wins over the top three contenders made the WAC race look insignificant after January.  Then, something changed.  Seattle, Grand Canyon, and Utah Valley started to hit their stride.  The race tightened in February, and NMSU lost back-to-back games against Utah Valley and Seattle, after narrowly beating Grand Canyon at home.

NMSU beat Miami and almost beat USC in Hawaii in November.  They still enter this tournament as the team to beat with exceptional offensive and defensive competence.  However, one cold shooting streak or maybe a hot perimeter streak by an opponent could be enough to turn one game around.

Grand Canyon is the hot team entering the conference tournament.  The Antelopes are an extension of Coach Dan Majerle.  Thunder Dan saved his best for the NBA Playoffs, and GCU will most likely be ready to play from the get-go.

If you are looking for a league tourney other than your favorite team’s league tourney, or just want to have some great late night entertainment, tune into the WAC Tournament.

Conference Tournaments Continuing Today

Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament
Second Round–March 8–Times EST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	#8 VCU	#9 Dayton	NBCSN
2:30 PM	#5 George Mason	#13 Massachusetts	NBCSN
6:00 PM	#7 Richmond	#10 Duquesne	NBCSN
8:30 PM	#6 St. Louis	#11 George Washington	NBCSN
Quarterfinals–March 9 EST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	#1 Rhode Island	VCU or Dayton	NBCSN
2:30 PM	#4 St. Joseph’s	GMU/UMass	NBCSN
6:00 PM	#2 St. Bonaventure	Richmond or Duquesne	NBCSN
8:30 PM	#3 Davidson	St. Louis or GWU	NBCSN
Semifinals–March 10 EST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
1:00 PM	URI/VCU/Dayton	StJo/GMU/LaSalle/UMass	CBSSN
3:30 PM	StBon/Rich/Duq	Dav/Stl/GWU/Fordham	CBSSN
Championship–March 11  EDT
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
1:00 PM			CBS

 

Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament
Quarterfinals–March 8  EST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	#1 Virginia	#9 Louisville	ESPN
2:00 PM	#4 Clemson	#12 Boston College	ESPN
7:00 PM	#2 Duke	#10 Notre Dame	ESPN
9:00 PM	#3 Miami (Fla.)	#6 North Carolina	ESPN
Semifinals–March 9   EST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
7:00 PM	Virginia or Louisville	Clemson or Boston Coll.	TBA
9:00 PM	Duke or Notre Dame	Miami or North Carolina	TBA
Championship–March 10   EST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
8:30 PM			ESPN

 

Big 12 Conference Tournament
Quarterfinals–March 8  CST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
11:30 AM	#4 Kansas St.	#5 TCU	ESPN2
1:30 PM	#1 Kansas	#8 Oklahoma St.	ESPN2
6:00 PM	#2 Texas Tech	#7 Texas	ESPNU
8:00 PM	#3 West Virginia	#6 Baylor	ESPNU
Semifinals–March 9  CST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:00 PM	Kansas or Okla. St.	Kan St. or TCU	ESPN2
8:00 PM	Texas Tech or Texas	WVU or Baylor	ESPN2
Championship–March 10  CST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
5:00 PM			ESPN

 

Big East Conference Tournament
Quarterfinals–March 8  EST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	#1 Xavier	#9 St. John’s	FS1
2:30 PM	#4 Creighton	#5 Providence	FS1
7:00 PM	#2 Villanova	#7 Marquette	FS1
9:30 PM	#3 Seton Hall	#6 Butler	FS1
Semifinals–March 9   EST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:30 PM	Xavier or St. John’s	Creighton or Providence	FS1
9:00 PM	Villanova or Marquette	S. Hall or Butler	FS1
Championship–March 10  EST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:30 PM			Fox

 

Big Sky Conference Tournament
Quarterfinals–March 8  PST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	#1 Montana	#8 North Dakota	Pluto tv
2:30 PM	#4 Weber St.	#5 Northern Colorado	Pluto tv
5:30 PM	#2 Idaho	#10 Southern Utah	Pluto tv
8:00 PM	#3 Eastern Washington	#6 Portland St.	Pluto tv
Semifinals–March 9   PST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
5:30 PM	Mont/UND	Weber/N. Colorado	Pluto tv
8:00 PM	Idaho/S.Utah	E.Washington/Portland St.	Pluto tv
Championship–March 10   PST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
5:00 PM			ESPNU

 

Conference USA Tournament
Quarterfinals–March 8   CST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:00 PM	#1 Middle Tennessee	#9 Southern Miss.	Stadium
6:30 PM	#4 Marshall	#5 UTSA	Stadium
8:30 PM	#2 Old Dominion	#10 Louisiana Tech	Stadium
9:00 PM	#3 Western Kentucky	#6 UAB	Stadium
Semifinals–March 9   CST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:30 PM	MTSU or Southern Miss	Marshall or UTSA	CBSSN
3:00 PM	ODU or La. Tech	Western Ky. or UAB	CBSSN
Championship–March 10   CST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
7:30 PM			CBSSN

 

Mid-American Conference Tournament
Quarterfinals–March 8   EST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	#1 Buffalo	#8 Central Michigan	ESPN3
2:30 PM	#4 Ball St.	#5 Kent St.	ESPN3
6:30 PM	#2 Toledo	#7 Miami (O)	ESPN3
9:00 PM	#3 Eastern Michigan	#11 Akron	ESPN3
Semifinals–March 9   EST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:30 PM	Buff/CMU	Ball/Kent	CBSSN
9:00 PM	Tol/Mia	EMU/Akron	See *
* This game will be available at cbssports.com
Championship–March 10   EST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
7:00 PM			ESPN2

 

Mideastern Athletic Conference Tournament
Quarterfinals–March 8
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:00 PM	#3 Savannah St.	#6 UNC-Central	ESPN3
8:00 PM	#4 North Carolina A&T	#5 Norfolk St.	ESPN3
Semifinals–March 9
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:00 PM	#1 Hampton	NCAT/Norfolk St	ESPN3
8:00 PM	#7 Morgan St.	Sav/UNCC	ESPN3
Championship–March 10
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
1:00 PM			ESPN2

 

Mountain West Conference Tournament
Quarterfinals–March 8   PST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	#1 Nevada	#8 UNLV	CBSSN
2:30 PM	#4 Fresno St.	#5 San Diego St.	CBSSN
6:00 PM	#2 Boise St.	#7 Utah St.	CBSSN
8:30 PM	#3 New Mexico	#6 Wyoming	CBSSN
Semifinals–March 9   PST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:00 PM	Nevada or UNLV	FSU or SDSU	CBSSN
8:30 PM	Boise St. or Utah St.	New Mexico or Wyoming	CBSSN
Championship–March 10   PST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
3:00 PM			CBS

 

Pacific 12 Conference Tournament
Quarterfinals–March 8   PST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	#1 Arizona	#8 Colorado	Pac12
2:30 PM	#4 UCLA	#5 Stanford	Pac12
6:00 PM	#2 USC	#10 Oregon St.	Pac12
8:30 PM	#3 Utah	#6 Oregon	FS1
Semifinals–March 9   PST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:00 PM	Arizona or Colorado	UCLA or Stanford	Pac12
8:30 PM	USC or Oregon St.	Utah or Oregon	FS1
Championship–March 10  PST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
7:00 PM			FS1

 

Southeastern Conference Tournament
Second Round–March 8  CST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	#8 Texas A&M	#9 Alabama	SECTV
2:30 PM	#5 Missouri	#12 Georgia	SECTV
6:00 PM	#7 Mississippi St.	#10 LSU	SECTV
8:30 PM	#6 Arkansas	#11 South Carolina	SECTV
Quarterfinals–March 9   CST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	#1 Auburn	A&M or Alabama	ESPN
2:30 PM	#4 Kentucky	Missouri or Georgia	ESPN
6:00 PM	#2 Tennessee	Miss St. or LSU	SECTV
8:30 PM	#3 Florida	Arkansas or S. Carolina	SECTV
Semifinals–March 10   CST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	Aub/A&M/Alabama	UK/MO/GA	ESPN
2:30 PM	UT/MSU/LSU	Fla/Ark/USC/OM	ESPN
Championship–March 4   CDT
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM			ESPN

 

Southland Conference Tournament
Quarterfinals–March 8   CST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
5:00 PM	#4 Sam Houston St.	#5 New Orleans	ESPN3
7:30 PM	#3 Stephen F. Austin	#7 Central Arkansas	ESPN3
Semifinals–March 9   CST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
5:00 PM	#1 SE Louisiana	Sam Houston or UNO	ESPN3
7:30 PM	#2 Nicholls St.	SF Austin or Cent. Ark.	ESPN3
Championship–March 10   CST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
8:00 PM			ESPN2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Conference Tournament Update–March 4, 2018

Spreads For Sunday’s Games

Home Team	Visitor	Spread
Wichita St.	Cincinnati	-0.9
South Florida	SMU	-11.0
Tulsa	Temple	1.0
Memphis	East Carolina	11.0
Houston	Connecticut	15.2
Central Florida	Tulane	8.3
Florida Gulf Coast	Lipscomb	6.5
Radford	Liberty	3.8
Purdue	Michigan	3.9
Charleston	Drexel	9.8
William & Mary	Towson	-1.6
Northeastern	Delaware	8.9
Hofstra	UNC-Wilmington	6.4
Illinois-Chicago	Milwaukee	0.1
Oakland	IUPUI	7.3
Iona	St. Peter’s	5.1
Fairfield	Quinnipiac	3.7
Loyola (Chi.)	Illinois St.	7.9
Colgate	Holy Cross	4.8
Bucknell	Boston U	9.2
UNC-Greensboro	Wofford	4.9
East Tennessee St.	Furman	-0.3
Fort Wayne	North Dakota St.	0.9
Denver	Oral Roberts	1.5
Gonzaga	San Francisco	14.5
Saint Mary’s	BYU	4.5

Note:  Games in Bright Red are for Automatic NCAA Tournament Bids

Automatic NCAA Tournament Bids Awarded to Date

Murray State (26-5) 

Ohio Valley Conference Tournament
Murray St. 68	Belmont 51

Conference Tournaments Scores From Saturday with Updated Brackets

America East Conference Tournament
Quarterfinals–March 3
UMBC 89	UMass-Lowell 77
Hartford 71	New Hampshire 60
Vermont 75	Maine 60
Stony Brook 69	Albany 60

Semifinals–March 6
Time	Home	Visitors	TV
7:00 PM	#1 Vermont	#5 Stony Brook	ESPN3
7:30 PM	#2 UMBC	#3 Hartford	ESPN3
Championship–March 10
Time	Home	Visitors	TV
11:00 AM	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	ESPN2

 

Big Ten Conference Tournament
Michigan 75	Michigan St. 64
Purdue 78	Penn St. 70

Championship–March 4
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
4:30 PM	#3 Purdue	#5 Michigan	CBS

 

Colonial Athletic Association Tournament
First Round–March 3
Drexel 70	James Madison 62
Delaware 86	Elon 79

Quarterfinals–March 4
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	#1 College of Charleston	#8 Drexel	CAA TV
2:30 PM	#4 William & Mary	#5 Towson	CAA TV
6:00 PM	#2 Northeastern	#7 Delaware	CAA TV
8:30 PM	#3 Hofstra	#6 UNC-Wilmington	CAA TV
Semifinals–March 5
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:00 PM	CofC/Drex/JMU	W&M or Towson	CBSSN
8:30 PM	NE/Del/Elon	Hofstra or UNCW	CBSSN
Championship–March 6
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
7:00 PM			CBSSN

Horizon League Tournament
Wright St. 87	Green Bay 72
Cleveland St. 89	Northern Kentucky 80

Quarterfinals–March 4
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
5:00 PM	#3 UIC	#6 Milwaukee	ESPN3
7:30 PM	#4 Oakland	#5 IUPUI	ESPN3
Semifinals–March 5
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
7:00 PM	Oakland or IUPUI	#8 Cleveland St.	ESPNU
9:30 PM	#2 Wright St.	UIC or Milwaukee	ESPNU
Championship–March 6
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
7:00 PM			ESPN

 

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament
Fairfield 90	Niagara 77
Iona 72	Manhattan 60

Semifinals–March 4
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
7:00 PM	#4 Iona	#9 St. Peter’s	ESPN3
9:30 PM	#6 Fairfield	#7 Quinnipiac	ESPN3
Championship–March 5
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
7:00 PM			ESPN

 

Missouri Valley Conference Tournament
Loyola (Chi.) 62	Bradley 54
Illinois St. 76	Southern Illinois 68

Championship–March 4
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
1:00 PM	#1 Loyola (Chi.)	#3 Illinois St.	CBS

 

Northeast Conference Tournament
Wagner 75	Robert Morris 64
Long Island 78	Fairleigh-Dickinson 77

Championship–March 6
Time	Home Team	Visitors	TV
7:00 PM	#1 Wagner	#4 Long Island	ESPN2

 

Southern Conference Tournament
UNC-Greensboro 72	The Citadel 58
Wofford 73	Mercer 53
East Tennessee St. 77	Chattanooga 59
Furman 97	Western Carolina 73

Semifinals–March 4
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
4:00 PM	#1 UNC-Greensboro	#5 Wofford	ESPN3
6:30 PM	#2 East Tennessee St.	#3 Furman	ESPN3
Championship–March 5
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
9:00 PM			ESPN2

 

Summit League Tournament
Quarterfinals–March 3
South Dakota St. 66	Western Illiois 60
South Dakota 87	Omaha 73

Quarterfinals–March 4
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:00 PM	#4 Fort Wayne	#5 North Dakota St.	ESPN3
8:30 PM	#3 Denver	#6 Oral Roberts	ESPN3
Semifinals–March 5
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:00 PM	#1 South Dakota St.	Ft.Wayne or NDSU	ESPN3
8:30 PM	#2 South Dakota	Denver or ORU	ESPN3
Championship–March 6
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
8:00 PM			ESPN2

 

West Coast Conference Tournament
BYU 85	San Diego 79
San Francisco 71	Pacific 70 ot
Gonzaga 83	Loyola Marymount 69
Saint Mary’s 69	Pepperdine 66

Semifinals–March 4
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:00 PM	#1 Gonzaga	#4 San Francisco	ESPN
8:00 PM	#2 Saint Mary’s	#3 BYU	ESPN2
Championship–March 6
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:00 PM			ESPN

Other Conference Tournaments Resuming Today

Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament
Championship–March 4
Time	Home	Visitors	TV
3:00 PM	#1 Florida Gulf Coast	#2 Lipscomb	ESPN

Big South Conference Tournament
Championship–March 4
Time	Home	Visitors	TV
1:00 PM	#2 Radford	#5 Liberty	ESPN

Semifinals–March 4
Time	Home	Visitors	TV
12:00 PM	#2 Colgate	#6 Holy Cross	CBSSN
2:00 PM	#1 Bucknell	#5 Boston U	CBSSN
Championship–March 7
Time	Home	Visitors	TV
7:30 PM			CBSSN

Bids That Will Be Awarded on Sunday

Big South Conference:  Radford or Liberty   1:00 PM EST on ESPN

Even with 2-seed Radford’s home court advantage, this game should be considered close to a toss-up.   Earlier in the season, these two teams had to play an extra five minutes to determine the outcome, as Radford won by a bucket 59-57.  Of the 20 players that appeared in that game, only one could find the basket consistently that night, as Radford’s Ed Polite, Jr. finished a perfect 7 for 7 from the field in that game.  It was no fluke, as in the return game at Liberty, Polite, Jr. went 7 for 10 from the field with a three-pointer and a perfect 8 for 8 at the line for 23 points, as Radford cruised to an easy win.  Any chance Liberty has of winning will come from limiting Radford’s ability to get second chance baskets and getting to the foul line, where they lead the Big South with a 78.5% accuracy rate.

Missouri Valley Conference:  Loyola (Chi.) or Illinois St.  2:00 PM EST on CBS

Loyola is the top seed, while Illinois State is the 3-seed.  During the regular season, Loyola won by identical 68-61 scores in a season sweep.  The Ramblers have won nine consecutive games and would be a formidable foe as an underdog in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.  They rank third nationally in field goal percentage at 51% per game, and they play competent defense without fouling.

Atlantic Sun Conference:  Florida Gulf Coast or Lipscomb   3:00 PM EST on ESPN

These are the top two seeds, and they split the season series, winning on the other team’s home floor.  This game will be played at FGCU, where Lipscomb beat the Eagles 90-87, despite being forced into 23 turnovers at the hands of 19 FGCU steals.  Lipscomb has won seven games in a row and 11 out of 12, but FGCU is tournament tough and has been there before.  The Eagles have owned this league since Belmont left for the OVC, while Lipscomb has never been to the NCAA Tournament and only appeared in one previous A-Sun Tournament Championship Game.  This game should be exciting.

Big Ten: Purdue or Michigan  4:30 PM EST on CBS

Obviously, both teams are going to the NCAA Tournament, as will be Michigan State and Ohio State.  Nebraska has little or no chance, while Penn State’s chances of getting in are only marginally better.

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview for February 16-18, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Spreads For Multi-Bid Conferences and Top Mid & Low Majors

Friday’s Games
Home Team	Visitor	Spread
St. Bonaventure	Rhode Island	0.6

Saturday’s Games
Home Team	Visitor	Spread
Central Florida	SMU	-0.7
Tulane	Memphis	2.7
Miami (Fla.)	Syracuse	6.2
Georgia Tech	Virginia Tech	-5.1
Boston College	Notre Dame	-0.9
Wake Forest	North Carolina St.	0.3
Louisville	North Carolina	0.0
Oklahoma	Texas	5.7
Kansas St.	Iowa St.	7.5
Kansas	West Virginia	3.9
Baylor	Texas Tech	-1.1
TCU	Oklahoma St.	8.3
Butler	Providence	8.0
Xavier	Villanova	-4.0
Creighton	Marquette	8.0
Northwestern	Michigan St.	-9.4
Iowa	Indiana	0.9
Maryland	Rutgers	12.6
Boise St.	Air Force	17.8
San Diego St.	UNLV	3.9
Wyoming	San Jose St.	15.1
Utah St.	Nevada	-8.1
Fresno St.	Colorado St.	13.9
Washington	Colorado	3.7
Washington St.	Utah	-7.5
UCLA	Oregon	4.9
USC	Oregon St.	9.5
LSU	Missouri	0.4
Kentucky	Alabama	4.4
South Carolina	Auburn	-6.4
Arkansas	Texas A&M	2.7
Vanderbilt	Florida	-3.2
Georgia	Tennessee	-4.4
Mississippi St.	Ole Miss	6.3
San Diego	BYU	-3.4
San Francisco	Loyola Marymount	8.8
Gonzaga	Pepperdine	29.2
Portland	Saint Mary’s	-16.1
Pacific	Santa Clara	10.0
Louisiana Tech	Middle Tennessee	-3.8
Rice	Western Kentucky	-12.2
Murray St.	Tennessee Tech	14.1
Louisiana-Lafayette	Texas-Arlington	10.3
Seattle	New Mexico St.	-8.0

Sunday’s Games
Home Team	Visitor	Spread
East Carolina	Connecticut	-4.7
Tulsa	South Florida	15.9
Cincinnati	Wichita St.	7.3
Temple	Houston	-2.2
Clemson	Duke	-3.1
Florida St.	Pittsburgh	20.7
Seton Hall	DePaul	11.4
Michigan	Ohio St.	2.0
Illinois	Nebraska	-0.7
Purdue	Penn St.	11.9
California	Stanford	-6.4
Evansville	Loyola (Chi.)	-5.9

PiRate Ratings Top 25

Rank	Team	PiRate	Conf.
1	Villanova	120.5	BIGE
2	Purdue	119.9	BTEN
3	Duke	119.8	ACC
4	Virginia	119.6	ACC
5	Michigan St.	119.4	BTEN
6	Cincinnati	118.5	AAC
7	North Carolina	116.1	ACC
8	Gonzaga	116.0	WCC
9	Kansas	116.0	B12
10	Texas Tech	116.0	B12
11	West Virginia	115.6	B12
12	Auburn	115.2	SEC
13	Wichita St.	114.7	AAC
14	Tennessee	114.1	SEC
15	Creighton	113.4	BIGE
16	Ohio St.	113.4	BTEN
17	Clemson	113.2	ACC
18	Xavier	113.0	BIGE
19	Arizona	112.8	PAC12
20	Nevada	112.5	MWC
21	TCU	112.4	B12
22	Texas A&M	112.4	SEC
23	Florida St.	112.3	ACC
24	Oklahoma	112.2	B12
25	Louisville	112.1	ACC

PiRate Ratings By Power Conferences

Team	PiRate	Conf.
Cincinnati	118.5	AAC
Wichita St.	114.7	AAC
Houston	111.5	AAC
SMU	107.6	AAC
Temple	105.8	AAC
UCF	103.9	AAC
Tulsa	102.3	AAC
Memphis	99.7	AAC
Tulane	99.4	AAC
Connecticut	99.4	AAC
East Carolina	91.7	AAC
South Florida	89.9	AAC
Duke	119.8	ACC
Virginia	119.6	ACC
North Carolina	116.1	ACC
Clemson	113.2	ACC
Florida St.	112.3	ACC
Louisville	112.1	ACC
Miami FL	111.0	ACC
Notre Dame	110.7	ACC
Virginia Tech	110.6	ACC
North Carolina St.	108.3	ACC
Syracuse	108.3	ACC
Boston College	106.3	ACC
Wake Forest	105.6	ACC
Georgia Tech	102.5	ACC
Pittsburgh	95.1	ACC
Kansas	116.0	B12
Texas Tech	116.0	B12
West Virginia	115.6	B12
TCU	112.4	B12
Oklahoma	112.2	B12
Baylor	111.4	B12
Texas	110.0	B12
Kansas St.	109.1	B12
Oklahoma St.	107.6	B12
Iowa St.	105.1	B12
Villanova	120.5	BIGE
Creighton	113.4	BIGE
Xavier	113.0	BIGE
Butler	112.0	BIGE
Seton Hall	111.3	BIGE
Marquette	108.9	BIGE
Providence	107.5	BIGE
St. John’s	107.1	BIGE
Georgetown	104.9	BIGE
DePaul	103.4	BIGE
Purdue	119.9	BTEN
Michigan St.	119.4	BTEN
Ohio St.	113.4	BTEN
Michigan	111.9	BTEN
Penn St.	111.5	BTEN
Maryland	110.7	BTEN
Nebraska	107.8	BTEN
Indiana	107.1	BTEN
Northwestern	107.0	BTEN
Wisconsin	105.9	BTEN
Iowa	105.0	BTEN
Minnesota	104.8	BTEN
Illinois	104.1	BTEN
Rutgers	101.6	BTEN
Nevada	112.5	MWC
Boise St.	108.0	MWC
San Diego St.	106.8	MWC
Fresno St.	106.5	MWC
UNLV	106.4	MWC
New Mexico	102.1	MWC
Wyoming	101.9	MWC
Utah St.	100.9	MWC
Colorado St.	96.1	MWC
Air Force	93.7	MWC
San Jose St.	90.3	MWC
Arizona	112.8	PAC12
Arizona St.	110.8	PAC12
USC	109.2	PAC12
UCLA	108.7	PAC12
Oregon	107.8	PAC12
Utah	107.7	PAC12
Stanford	104.2	PAC12
Oregon St.	103.2	PAC12
Washington	103.1	PAC12
Colorado	102.9	PAC12
Washington St.	97.2	PAC12
California	94.8	PAC12
Auburn	115.2	SEC
Tennessee	114.1	SEC
Texas A&M	112.4	SEC
Florida	111.8	SEC
Kentucky	111.3	SEC
Arkansas	111.1	SEC
Missouri	110.7	SEC
Alabama	110.4	SEC
Mississippi St.	107.8	SEC
LSU	107.6	SEC
Georgia	106.2	SEC
Vanderbilt	105.6	SEC
South Carolina	105.3	SEC
Mississippi	104.5	SEC
Gonzaga	116.0	WCC
Saint Mary’s	112.0	WCC
BYU	106.9	WCC
San Diego	100.5	WCC
San Francisco	100.0	WCC
Pacific	99.4	WCC
Loyola Marymount	94.2	WCC
Portland	92.9	WCC
Santa Clara	92.4	WCC
Pepperdine	90.3	WCC

Top Mid-Major and Low-Major Teams

Rhode Island	111.5	A10
Middle Tennessee	108.2	CUSA
Western Kentucky	106.7	CUSA
Loyola Chicago	107.4	MVC
Murray St.	106.4	OVC
Louisiana Lafayette	108.3	SB
South Dakota	106.8	Sum
New Mexico St.	108.4	WAC

Great TV Watching Options This Weekend

Once again, another great schedule of games allows college basketball fans some excellent viewing options.  Beginning tonight (Friday) at 7:00 PM Eastern Time, St. Bonaventure hosts Rhode Island.  The game will air on ESPN2.  The Bonnies (9-4/19-6) are tied for second place in the Atlantic 10 still have a remote chance to receive an at-large bid, and any chance would necessitate a win over URI.

Saturday’s great slate of games begins at 12 Noon Eastern Time.  Oklahoma hosts Texas on ESPN; Butler hosts Providence on Fox; and Miami hosts Syracuse on CBS.

At 4 PM EST, one of the best games of the day could be Arkansas hosting Texas A&M on ESPN.  At 4:30 PM EST, the Big East regular season title could be decided when Xavier hosts Villanova on Fox.  The winner should remain a number one seed on Monday.

At 6 PM EST, Kansas hosts West Virginia on ESPN.  The loser of this game will probably be eliminated from the Big 12 regular season race, while the winner will become Texas Tech’s key rival.

At 7 PM EST, Florida Gulf Coast hosts Lipscomb on ESPN3.  FGCU has already clinched the top seed in the Atlantic Sun, while Lipscomb is currently number two.  The significance here is that FGCU will host the A-Sun Tournament, so it will be interesting to see if the second best team in the league can compete with them on the same floor.

At 7:30 PM EST on ESPNU, Baylor hosts Texas Tech.  TTU has a chance to gain a game on one of the two nearest contenders (KU-WVU), but if the Red Raiders lose, then they will lose a game to the winner of that other game.  Baylor is actually the hottest team in the Big 12, and a win here would give the Bears a great upward move in the Bubble.

At 8:15 PM EST, Louisville host North Carolina on ESPN.  The winner has a chance to move up to number two in the ACC by the end of the weekend, while the loser could fall down in the standings as far as ninth place.

At 10:15 PM EST on ESPN, UCLA hosts Oregon.  Both teams are currently Bubble teams, so the winner will start the new week in good shape, while the loser will be facing some must win games.

Sunday presents additional excellent viewing options.  It starts at 1 PM EST, with two excellent Power Conference games.  Rivals Michigan and Ohio State square off in Ann Arbor in a game televised by CBS.  At the same time, Clemson hosts Duke on the ACC Network.

At 2 PM EST on ESPN3, it might not sound like a big game, but the Vermont-Hartford game in Burlington might be one to consider watching.  UVA is 12-0 in the America East Conference and will most likely host the conference tournament.  Hartford is one of three teams with enough talent to pull off an upset.

The top game of the day tips off at 4 PM EST, when Cincinnati hosts Wichita State.  This will be a battle of two aggressive, defense-dominant teams.  Cinti fell at Houston Thursday night, while the Shockers had to come from behind to beat Temple.  Seeding will be on the line in this one.

Finally, at 8 PM EST on the Big Ten Network, Penn State visits Purdue.  The Nittany Lions roared big time in a Thursday night blowout against Ohio State.  If Penn State pulls off the upset Sunday, that will give them two Quadrant 1 wins in a row, and that will certainly place Penn State in the heat of the discussion.  Purdue must win this game to remain in contention for a number one seed.