The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 11, 2021

A Quick Look At The Bubble

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:39 am

Thursday, March 11 Prior To Start of Today’s Games

It’s just a little more than 80 hours until the Selection Sunday bids are announced. We will have our final bracketology Sunday around 4 PM EST, unless there is a final tournament game that would affect the seeding.

As of this morning, here is our look at the teams in the gray area, on the bubble.

Let’s start with the teams that we believe are currently in the field if the bids were awarded today, but that are vulnerable to being bumped if other teams play their way into the field.

Louisville: The Cardinals lost in their first ACC Tournament game to fellow bubbler Duke. The Cardinals took a 6-spot dive in the Net Ratings after the loss, and they are in jeopardy of falling out of the tournament if a host of teams play their way in. At 13-7, they finished the season 4-6. UL won just one Quad 1 game, but they were 6-1 in Quad 2 games. Their chances of making the field are still about 85-90%, but they could find themselves playing that extra at-large play-in game.

Xavier: The Musketeers are in a much more precarious position following their immediate Big East Tournament ouster. Xavier fell to 62 in the Net, and they too finished 4-6 after starting 9-2. If a couple of teams still playing advance a couple rounds in their tournaments, it could be lights out for the Musketeers. Their chances of making the field are close to 50-50 today.

Drake: The Bulldogs lost to Loyola in the Arch Madness Championship Game to finish 23-4 with two losses to the Ramblers. A #45 Net with a 6-2 record against Quad 1 and Quad 2 opponents, including one win over Loyola should be enough to keep Drake in a safe spot in this field. Their chances of making the field are about 95%.

Wichita St.: The Selection Committee does not compare teams within the same conference in theory, but when looking at each team’s resumes, they are basically forced to look at who they beat and didn’t beat, and obviously more games are played in-conference, especially this season. Wichita St. is rated behind Memphis in the Net, and their 13-4 record includes a 9-0 mark against Quad 3 & 4 teams. On the plus side, the Shockers finished 9-1 with a win over Houston. The Shockers need to make it to at least the semifinals of the AAC Tournament; a loss to the USF-Temple winner would really jeopardize their tournament hopes. On the good side, Wichita looks to have an express seeding to the AAC Championship Game, so we give them a better than 50-50 chance to Dance.

Syracuse: Yesterday’s pasting of potential Bubble team North Carolina St. has given the Orangemen a legitimate shot to make the field with an upset of Virginia today. SU is now at 39 in the Net. A 1-6 Quad 1 record is poor, but the 5-1 Quad 2 has the Orangemen in position to move into the at-large positive category with a win today. A loss to the Cavs would not totally eliminate SU, depending on what happens in other tournaments. We give SU a 55% chance of making the field. If they stay in the top 40 of the Net, they should get in.

Boise St.: The Mountain West Conference has four teams competing for bids. There might be three awarded. Boise State has 2 Quad 1 wins, and their Net is currently 43. A win over Nevada today is mandatory. If they get that win, then a decent showing against San Diego State tomorrow should be satisfactory. We give BSU a 55-60% chance of making the field.

Colorado St.: Wins at San Diego St. and at Utah St. had the Rams at the top of the MWC in January, but CSU has swooned since and is in danger of playing themselves out of the field. With a Net of 50, a quarterfinal round loss to Fresno St. today would be a dagger in their hearts or dancing shoes. The Rams must win today, and then they might have to beat the Utah St.-UNLV winner tomorrow. If they play USU, it could be an eliminator game.

UCLA: The Bruins are March Madness royalty. The humans on the Selection Committee will find a way to justify placing them in the Dance. A quarterfinal win in the Pac-12 Tournament would more than suffice along with their moving into the top 40 in the Net. UCLA has a 75-80% chance to make the field.

Michigan St.: The Spartans will be hurt if the Net Ratings prove to be as important as the first 16-team pre-selection made by the Committee a month ago. MSU is a low 67 in the Net, but they are coming off a win over 1-seed line Michigan and have 5 Quad 1 wins. The Big Ten schedule, along with a win at Duke, should be enough for Sparty to celebrate with a Dance ticket on Sunday. A win over Maryland in the Big Ten Tournament sets it in stone.

Ole Miss: The Rebels have work to do. They would not be in the field if the Selections were made today, but Ole Miss has a path to get in. They absolutely must defeat South Carolina today and then will have to upset LSU tomorrow to raise their Net of 53 up to the low 40’s at worst. Two wins over Missouri and one over Tennessee are not enough to warrant their selection. Their chances of making the Dance are around 30%.

Utah St.: The Aggies are just outside the Field today, but they swept San Diego State and have a resume ready to move them into the field with a win over UNLV today and then a win over Colorado State in a knockout game tomorrow. If they don’t win two games, they lose out.

SMU: The Mustangs need a lot of help to get in. Teams above them on this list have to play their way out of the field, and SMU needs to do damage in the AAC Tournament, maybe make it to the Championship Game against Houston (not Memphis). A 55 Net is too low to warrant a bid. Their chance to get in is about 20%.

Memphis: It’s awful that the only a desperation heave at the basket by an out of control Houston player could keep the Tigers out of the field. Memphis had a chance to move up into the 40’s in the Net and now sits at 52, which is not good enough. Memphis will have to make it to the Championship Game of the AAC Tournament and face Wichita State in that game to still have an at-large shot. More realistically, the Tigers may need to qualify automatically at this point.

Seton Hall & St. John’s: These two teams face off today in the Big East Tournament. The winner stays alive, while the loser can only think about NIT Selection. The winner still has work to do, maybe needing another tournament win, especially over top-seed Villanova. If Georgetown beats the Hoyas today, then the winner of the SH-SJ game must beat GU tomorrow. St. John’s might still need one more win after that.

Duke: The Eastern equivalent of UCLA, the Blue Devils are March Madness royalty. Like a heavyweight champion in a boxing match, if it goes 15 rounds, the champion will at the least win on a split decision. Duke will qualify for that split decision today if they beat Florida St. The Committee will invent the reason to leapfrog the Blue Devils over eight teams to get them in the Field. A loss today would make them 13-12 with a Net in the 50’s, so they need that win today.

Saint Louis: The Billikens were greatly harmed by a multiple-game cancellation in the regular season. Wins over LSU and St. Bonaventure in the regular season are not going to be enough, and SLU lost to the Bonnies in the A-10 Tournament. It’s not going to be a happy Sunday in the Gateway to the West.

March 3, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:40 am

Wednesday, March 3, 2021

HomeVisitorSpread
La SalleSaint Joseph’s0.6
George WashingtonFordham4.3
TulaneWichita St.-4.5
SyracuseClemson0.8
Notre DameNC St.2.4
Florida St.Boston College14.9
Seton HallConnecticut0.2
St. John’sProvidence2.6
VillanovaCreighton1.6
Eastern WashingtonIdaho St.13.7
Penn St.Minnesota3.1
NorthwesternMaryland-2.6
North Carolina A&TSouth Carolina St.12.0
North Carolina CentralFlorida A&M0.4
Colorado St.New Mexico18.8
UNLVSan Diego St.-12.3
WagnerMerrimack6.1
BelmontSIU Edwardsville16.4
Morehead St.Southeast Missouri St.8.7
UtahOregon St.3.8
OregonUCLA2.4
USCStanford7.7
Boston ULehigh7.2
FloridaMissouri4.9
Texas A&MMississippi St.-3.7
Sam Houston St.Texas A&M-CC14.7
New OrleansNorthwestern St.3.0
Houston BaptistIncarnate Word0.4
Central ArkansasSoutheast Louisiana1.5
Stephen F. AustinAbilene Christian-3.1

March 1, 2021

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:10 pm
Date3/1/2021
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaMichiganBaylorIllinois
2IowaOhio St.AlabamaWest Virginia
3KansasHoustonVillanovaFlorida St.
4ArkansasVirginiaTexasCreighton
5USCOklahomaTexas TechTennessee
6PurdueOklahoma St.WisconsinClemson
7ColoradoFloridaMissouriBYU
8Virginia TechRutgersSan Diego St.LSU
9UCLAOregonMarylandLoyola (Chi.)
10North CarolinaLouisvilleConnecticutBoise St.
11VCUSt. BonaventureGeorgia TechColorado St.Xavier
12Western Ky.ColgateDrakeSeton HallWichita St.
13ToledoBelmontUCSBWinthrop
14Wright St.LibertyUNCGAbilene Christian
15Grand CanyonE. WashingtonSienaVermont
16S. Dakota St.James MadisonTexas St.WagnerPrairie ViewNorfolk St.

Play-In Games: 11-Seed: Colorado St. vs. Xavier / 12-Seed: Seton Hall vs. Wichita St.

16-Seed: Texas St. vs. Norfolk St. / 16-Seed: Wagner vs. Prairie View

First 8 Out

69Michigan St.
70Richmond
71Duke
72Saint Louis
73Indiana
74Stanford
75Utah St.
76SMU

February 26, 2021

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

2/26/2021

SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaBaylorMichiganOhio St.
2IllinoisAlabamaVillanovaIowa
3West VirginiaHoustonFlorida St.Oklahoma
4KansasCreightonTexasUSC
5VirginiaTennesseeWisconsinArkansas
6Texas TechPurdueColoradoClemson
7Oklahoma St.FloridaMissouriBYU
8RutgersVirginia TechLSULoyola (Chi.)
9UCLASan Diego St.OregonMaryland
10North CarolinaBoise St.LouisvilleDrake
11VCUSt. BonaventureColorado St.Connecticut
12ToledoWestern Ky.Seton HallXavierIndianaGeorgia Tech
13BelmontColgateWinthropUCSB
14Wright St.LibertyFurmanAbilene Christian
15IonaVermontE. WashingtonGrand Canyon
16James MadisonS. Dakota St.Texas St.Prairie ViewWagnerN.C. A&T

First 8 Out

69Michigan St.
70Wichita St.
71Stanford
72Duke
73Richmond
74Utah St.
75Minnesota
76Ole Miss

Conference Tournaments underway!

With March getting ready to come in like a lion, here’s a look at each of the conferences heading into conference tournament play.

One-Bid Leagues

America East: Maryland-Baltimore Co. & Vermont are tied at 10-4 in the league. The teams split a weekend series in Maryland. Vermont is the team more likely to contend in a #15 vs. #2 seed game in the NCAA Tournament.

Atlantic Sun: Liberty is 10-2 in the league but not as strong as last year’s team. Bellarmine is not eligible for the NCAA Tournament but will play in the A-Sun tournament. If they win, then Liberty gets the automatic bid. Lipscomb is 9-5 in the league and the hottest team of the contenders.

Big Sky: There will be many mid-major and low-major tournaments this year that should be wide open. This is one. Eastern Washington at 11-2 in conference play currently leads for the top seed, with Southern Utah (9-2) and Weber St. (10-3) vying for second place. Weber St. is probably the best of the three, but we wouldn’t be shocked if Montana (just 6-9 in the league) sneaks into the semifinals with a chance to win it from well back in the field.

Big South: Winthrop ran way with the league title and has lapped the field. At 17-1/20-1, the Eagles are contending for a #12 seed. If anybody else wins, it’s 16-seed almost for sure. Winthrop will be the biggest favorite to win their conference tournament, even more than Gonzaga.

Big West: UCSB will end UC-Irvine’s reign as regular season champions. The Gauchos (12-2/16-3) will still likely have to face either UCI (9-4/12-8) or UC Riverside (7-4/10-6) in the Big West Championship Game.

Colonial: It’s a down year in the CAA. In past years, four or five teams had the talent to do damage in a Round of 64 game. This year, we don’t see a win in the cards for this league. James Madison (8-1/13-5) and Northeastern (8-2/9-8) are the leading contenders for the automatic bid.

Conference USA: This is a conference with at least five teams talented enough to upset a higher seeded team in the Big Dance. Western Kentucky (8-2/15-5) has been at the top of the league all year. North Texas (8-2/12-6) and UAB (10-4/18-5) have been right there with the Hilltoppers. Louisiana Tech (10-4/17-6) and Marshall (6-4/12-5) are the hot contenders late in the season. Marshall may be the best of the bunch.

Horizon: This has been a two-team race like Easy Goer and Sunday Silence in past Triple Crown horse racing. Wright St. and Cleveland St. share the conference lead at 16-4. The only other team in the picture is Detroit at 10-6. WSU or CSU could win an opening round game in the Dance.

Metro Atlantic: This looks like a three-team race for the MAAC automatic bid. Siena (9-3) has led the league most of the season, with Monmouth (10-6) trailing. But, Iona (6-3) has started playing again after a long Covid layoff. They have an experienced tournament coach in New Rochelle; if you didn’t know, Rick Pitino is in charge, and the Gaels are the team to beat in our opinion. For declaration purposes, Monmouth coach King Rice is a friend of the PiRate Captain, and he’s rooting for the Hawks to fly high.

Mid-American: Of all the conference tournaments, this one historically has been the most exciting, because rarely has there been a clear-cut favorite. More teams from back in the pack have won this tourney in our memories than any other league. Toledo (13-3/18-6) has led the West all year with no competition, but the East looks like the 1967 American League pennant race. Akron (12-4/14-5) leads Ohio (9-3/13-6) only because of more games played. Kent St. (11-5/14-6) and Buffalo (9-5/11-7) are right there. Any of these five could win the lone bid, and then again, someone from back in the pack could do it again. Toledo could be a #12 seed if they win out.

Mideastern: This league has been really hit by Covid issues, with two teams choosing not to play and a third opting out in mid-season. North Carolina A&T (6-1) has been in first place all year. Norfolk St. (8-4) may be a little better come March. But, Morgan St. (6-4) is coming on strong and might be the true favorite to take the MEAC Tournament. The winner is looking squarely at a 16-seed play-in game.

Northeast: The NEC usually places their automatic qualifier in the Dayton play-in game for a 16-seed. The only difference this year, is the game will be played in the Hoosier State. Wagner (11-4) leads Bryant (9-4) with the rest of the field out of the race. Bryant might be the better team.

Ohio Valley: Belmont looked unbeatable in this league, until the Bruins went up to Eastern Kentucky and found out how tough the Colonels are on their home, even with no fans. Belmont (18-1/24-2) now must face an even tougher Morehead St. team (16-3 in the OViC) tomorrow. This league tournament is no longer just a rubber stamp for Belmont. The Morehead/EKU winner in a likely semifinal game will have a 40% chance of knocking out the Bruins.

Patriot: Colgate is in the top 20 of the NET ratings, the one data point that the NCAA Selection Committee places as the primary seeding factor. At 11-1 overall, all their games were played in the league. Four of those games came against Army, where the Raiders won three but lost once at home to the Black Knights. Colgate is an enigma. We don’t understand why they are rated so highly with no non-conference games, because the Patriot League is not highly-rated. Navy at 10-1/13-2 looks like a better team, and Army 6-6/10-7 already knows they can beat the heavy favorite. Colgate could be a 12-seed if they win out, and in this case, their 5-seed opponent will not be on upset alert.

Southern: This league has produced multiple bids in the past, but it won’t happen this year. There are five good but not great teams in contention, and the eventual winner will not be highly regarded as an upset special possibility. Furman (10-4/16-7) is methodically better than average but not flashy. They stay on an even keel with talent not quite as deep as the other contenders, but with more consistency. UNCG (12-5/17-8) plays a style of play that opponents don’t like to face, but when a team is solid handling the ball, the Spartans are not that hard to beat. Wofford (11-5/14-8) has been a snake in the tall grass, sneaking into the top of the league. East Tennessee St. (8-6/12-10) is a mere shell of its former self left by Steve Forbes, while Chattanooga (9-7/18-7) has been a major underperformer since New Year’s Day.

Southland: The potential seeding of this league took a big turn last week, when Stephen F. Austin decided to become ineligible this year rather than next year. What would have been an incredible 4-team scramble has lost one of its scramblers. Abilene Christian (11-1/19-3) is a team no Power Conference opponent wants to see in their bracket. The Wildcats are really tough on the defensive side of the ball, and a poor passing team can turn ACU into an efficient offensive puncher, because the Wildcats can intercept passes like the 1963 Chicago Bears! Sam Houston (11-2/17-7) and Nicholls (11-2/14-6) are the top contenders without SFA.

Summit: This should be another wide open conference tournament with four co-favorites. South Dakota (10-3/12-9), North Dakota St. (10-4/12-10), South Dakota St. (7-3/13-6) and Oral Roberts (8-5/11-10) are on close to equal terms at the end of February. We think SDSU is the favorite to win the tournament.

Sun Belt: This league is slowly falling in overall strength, and it is in danger of joining the NEC, MEAC, and SWAC in the annual play-in round for a 16-seed. Texas St. (10-3/16-6) has held the SBC lead for several weeks, but South Alabama (10-5/16-8), Louisiana (9-6/15-7), and Georgia St. (6-4/12-5) are lurking close behind. We like GSU from this group to win the conference tournament.

Southwestern: Covid may have helped this league a tad. The co-leaders, Prairie View (9-0/10-4) and Jackson St. (7-0/7-5) don’t play each other in the regular season. It could lead to a SWAC title game between two undefeated teams in conference play, making it one of the most exciting of the postseason. Texas Southern (6-3/9-8) is the dark horse.

Western: After the MEAC, the WAC has been next most affected by Covid issues. Technically, UT Rio Grande Valley leads the league today at 2-0 in the WAC and 9-4 overall. But, Grand Canyon (7-1/13-4) is two games ahead in the won-loss, even if UTRGV is 1.000 in percentage. Utah Valley is third at 6-3 in the WAC, but we wouldn’t rule out New Mexico St. (3-5/6-6). The Aggies not only couldn’t play home games, they couldn’t even return home during the shutdown of the Land of Enchantment. Chris Jans is the type of coach that can motivate and use the right strategy to win this tournament.

Multi-Bid Leagues

American: Houston is a lock, but the Cougars are in second place in the AAC to a Wichita St. team that beat them. WSU is likely to earn the top seed in the AAC Tournament, and the Shockers are on the Bubble and need a little more to add to their resume. Memphis has more than enough talent to win the tournament, but the Tigers don’t play cohesively.

Atlantic Coast: In the past, any team with a winning record in conference play was close to assured of earning a bid. Syracuse went 10-8 in 2017 and didn’t get a bid. This year, Florida St., Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Louisville, and Clemson are Dancing. Duke, Georgia Tech, and North Carolina St., in that order, are still in contention. We think the Seminoles are strong enough to advance past the Sweet 16.

Atlantic 10: St. Bonaventure and VCU share the lead at 10-3, and the Bonnies and Rams are close to becoming locks for the Big Dance. Richmond, at 6-3, has been on the Bubble for most of the season. Saint Louis (4-4) has suffered the same fate as New Mexico State, missing weeks of scheduled games. The Billikens may be the best team in the league if they have completely dusted off the cobwebs in March.

Big 12: Undefeated Baylor probably won’t enter the Big 12 Tournament without a blemish. The Bears could even have two league losses. BU is still rusty from a long layoff, and they must play at Kansas, at West Virginia, and at home against Oklahoma St. and Texas Tech. This league is probably set in tournament teams. Baylor, Kansas, West Virginia, Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma St. should be in the field. TCU is too far back to sneak into the field without earning the automatic bid.

Big East: Villanova and Creighton are locks, while Seton Hall, Connecticut, and Xavier still have work to do before they are safely in the field. Xavier faces a must-win game at home against Creighton tomorrow.

Big Ten: This league is still in a state of flux. The teams that were close to being safe at the back of the field have done everything they could to play themselves out, while Michigan St., once given up for dead, has done everything to play themselves in.

As of today, Michigan, Illinois, Ohio St., Iowa, Wisconsin, and Purdue are locks. The Big Ten will probably get nine teams in the field. Rutgers, Maryland, Michigan St., Indiana, and Minnesota are competing for three bids. If Indiana or Minnesota fall short, there could be a coaching availability or two in the Big Ten in March.

Missouri Valley: With Wichita State relocated to the AAC, one would think the days of the venerable Valley earning multiple bids was over. Guess again. Drake and Loyola are close to sure things before Arch Madness starts in Saint Louis. There is even a scenario where if one of the two co-leaders loses in the semifinals of the conference tournament, and the other loses in the finals, that three teams could earn spots in the Field of 68.

Mountain West: How about four MWC teams in the Big Dance? San Diego St. is one of the hottest teams in the nation at the end of February. They’ve made a move like Whirlaway, swatting their long tail at the rest of the field as the Aztecs head to the finish line gaining distance from the place and show teams.

Boise St. and Colorado St. have tournament-worthy resumes, while Utah St. is now well back on the bad side of the Bubble. The Aggies need to win the conference tournament. Watch out for Steve Alford’s Nevada Wolfpack! Nevada has won four consecutive ga,es to move into fifth place.

Pac-12: What looked like a five-bid league has lessened to four bids and a prayer. USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Colorado have done enough to win bids. Stanford has lost five of nine games, including two in a row to teams they needed to beat. The Cardinal need to win at USC next Wednesday, or they may be forced to win the Pac-12 Tournament to get in.

Southeastern: Don’t count out Kentucky just yet! The Wildcats (7-7/8-13) look like the team they were supposed to be. UK cannot earn an at-large bid with just three regular season games remaining, but once they get to Nashville, The Music City turns into the Bluegrass City. Calipari’s Cats can win four games in four days.

Alabama, Arkansas, LSU, Florida, and Tennessee are in the field. Missouri was in for sure, but losses in four of their last five has created a shadow of doubt. Ole Miss has moved a half-game ahead of Mizzou in the league. The Tigers must close with Florida and LSU, while Ole Miss gets two games against last place Vanderbilt and a home game with Kentucky.

If there is a dark horse possibility in the SEC, then Georgia and Mississippi St. can stake claims to it. If Ole Miss and Missouri falter at the finish, the two Bulldogs can get into contention by winning out headed to Nashville.

West Coast: Gonzaga has yet to face any real competition. The Bulldogs look like the 1991 UNLV team that ran the table to the Final Four without opposition. Then, the Runnin’ Rebels ran into a Duke team that had not forgotten the 30+-point loss dealt to them in 1990’s Championship. The Bulldogs look like a potential run-the-table team, more like John Wooden’s UCLA teams than the 1991 UNLV team. Outside of the WCC, Gonzaga easily dismissed Kansas, West Virginia, Iowa, and Virginia. Normally, this would have been enough to show the nation that the Zags were without a doubt the best team in the nation. Had Baylor not cancelled their scheduled game, Gonzaga might be sitting with the appropriate strength of schedule typical of a national champion in our Bracketnomics criteria.

BYU is the other team with an NCAA Tournament guarantee. The Cougars have been distant number two to Gonzaga, but at 9-3/18-5, BYU has a win at San Diego St.

February 24, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Wednesday, February 24, 2021

HomeVisitorSpread
DavidsonSt. Bonaventure-1.0
George MasonGeorge Washington6.5
Saint Joseph’sDayton-8.8
La SalleDuquesne-4.3
South FloridaTemple3.8
MemphisTulane11.7
TulsaCincinnati1.2
Wake ForestClemson-6.0
VirginiaNC St.8.7
Miami (Fla.)Florida St.-12.5
North CarolinaMarquette8.9
ButlerSeton Hall-6.7
CreightonDePaul13.6
ProvidenceXavier-0.8
Southern UtahNorthern Arizona11.8
LongwoodHampton8.8
RutgersIndiana3.1
Ball St.Kent St.-4.6
UNC CentralNorth Carolina A&T2.8
Norfolk StDelaware St.14.2
Air ForceNew Mexico0.1
UNLVFresno St.5.8
Boston UniversityHoly Cross5.4
Loyola (MD)American3.6
Mississippi St.South Carolina3.5
ArkansasAlabama-2.0
VanderbiltTennessee-6.8
FurmanThe Citadel12.8
MercerChattanooga2.5
UNCGWestern Carolina11.9
Northwestern St.Stephen F. Austin-7.4
SE LouisianaMcNeese4.2
Texas A&M-CCNew Orleans-0.4
NichollsHouston Baptist10.5
Incarnate WordLamar4.5
Abilene ChristianSam Houston St.8.1
SouthernAlabama A&M6.4
Alcorn St.Alabama St.5.7

February 19, 2021

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

2/19/2021

SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaBaylorMichiganOhio St.
2IllinoisAlabamaVillanovaIowa
3OklahomaVirginiaWest VirginiaHouston
4Florida St.USCTexasTexas Tech
5KansasVirginia TechTennesseeCreighton
6PurdueWisconsinArkansasMissouri
7RutgersColoradoBYUOklahoma St.
8ClemsonFloridaLouisvilleLSU
9OregonUCLASan Diego St.Indiana
10Boise St.Loyola (Chi.)North CarolinaSeton Hall
11MinnesotaColorado St.DrakeVCU
12BelmontWestern Ky.StanfordSt. BonaventureConnecticutSaint Louis
13ToledoWinthropColgateUCSB
14Wright St.S.F. AustinLibertyUNCG
15VermontS. Dakota St.SienaGrand Canyon
16James MadisonE. WashingtonTexas St.WagnerPrairie ViewN.C. A&T

Last 4 Byes: Seton Hall, Minnesota, Colorado St., Drake

Last 4 In: Stanford, St. Bonaventure, Connecticut, Saint Louis

First 4 Out: Xavier, Maryland, Wichita St., St. John’s

Next 4 Out: Utah St., Ole Miss, Syracuse, Georgia Tech

Note: After careful perusal of the mock top four seeds released a week ago, we have discovered some new tendencies that the Committee gave more weight to than they usually do when there is a lot more interconference play. Thus, expect our bracketology to change a little next week showing seeds in somewhat different order from what they are this week. For instance, we believe that a team like Colgate may be drastically underrated, while a team like 23-1 Belmont may be overrated a bit even after winning their 20th consecutive game last night.

February 17, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

February 17, 2021

HomeVisitorSpread
RichmondVCU-0.1
Central FloridaSouth Florida2.2
PittsburghNC St.2.3
LouisvileSyracuse2.7
North CarolinaNortheastern13.5
Wake ForestDuke-6.8
Kansas St.Kansas-15.4
ButlerMarquette-0.6
Seton HallDePaul10.2
MarylandNebraska8.9
IndianaMinnesota1.9
Loyola (Chi.)Valparaiso20.7
New MexicoWyoming-2.7
Boise St.Utah St.0.1
USCArizona St.10.7
VanderbiltKentucky-3.8
TennesseeSouth Carolina8.6

February 14, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Sunday, February 14, 2021

HomeVisitorSpread
CincinnatiCentral Florida3.5
South FloridaTulane5.1
SMUWichita St.4.9
Georgia TechPittsburgh3.5
Notre DameMiami (Fla.)8.0
Seton HallMarquette7.3
WisconsinMichigan-2.5
Penn St.Nebraska10.9
MarylandMinnesota0.1
Arizona St.Oregon St.5.1

February 8, 2021

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:30 pm
Date2/8/2021
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1BaylorGonzagaMichiganVillanova
2HoustonOhio St.IllinoisMissouri
3VirginiaOklahomaTexas TechAlabama
4TexasIowaVirginia TechWest Virginia
5WisconsinTennesseeCreightonPurdue
6Florida St.Oklahoma St.FloridaUSC
7LouisvilleUCLAXavierRutgers
8OregonColoradoMinnesotaKansas
9ClemsonBYUNorth CarolinaDrake
10IndianaColorado St.San Diego St.St. Bonaventure
11ArkansasLoyola (Chi.)LSUStanford
12ToledoBelmontBoise St.ConnecticutUtah St.Richmond
13WinthropUNCGUABStephen F. Austin
14Texas St.South DakotaLibertySiena
15UC-IrvineCleveland St.Grand CanyonNavy
16UMBCNortheasternBryantSouthern UtahN. C. A&TPrairie View

Bubble

VCU
Seton Hall
Saint Louis
SMU
Maryland
St. John’s
Syracuse
Western Ky.

March 12, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For March 12, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:01 am

Thursday’s Games

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Massachusetts

VCU

-8.1

St. Bonaventure

George Mason

2.6

Davidson

La Salle

8.4

Duquesne

Fordham

10.5

Central Florida

South Florida

0.1

Connecticut

Tulane

9.7

SMU

Temple

1.5

Memphis

East Carolina

12.4

Florida St.

Clemson

7.1

Duke

North Carolina St.

9.5

Virginia

Notre Dame

1.2

Louisville

Syracuse

6.7

Texas

Texas Tech

-5.5

Kansas

Oklahoma St.

12.0

Baylor

Kansas St.

11.1

Oklahoma

West Virginia

-3.6

Creighton

St. John’s

5.3

Providence

Butler

-1.8

Villanova

DePaul

8.9

Seton Hall

Marquette

1.4

Eastern Washington

Sacramento St.

4.3

Portland St.

Montana St.

2.9

Northern Colorado

Southern Utah

5.3

Montana

Idaho St.

8.9

Rutgers

Michigan

-2.1

Iowa

Minnesota

1.1

Ohio St.

Purdue

2.8

Penn St.

Indiana

1.1

Cal St. Northridge

Cal St. Fullerton

1.2

UC Santa Barbara

UC Riverside

3.0

UC Irvine

Long Beach St.

12.1

Hawaii

UC Davis

1.2

North Texas

Florida Atlantic

7.9

Charlotte

Florida Intl.

-0.6

Western Kentucky

UAB

5.2

Louisiana Tech

Marshall

5.6

Rider

Niagara

7.4

Monmouth

Quinnipiac

3.3

Akron

Ohio

6.6

Northern Illinois

Miami (O)

3.1

Bowling Green

Toledo

-1.4

Ball St.

Kent St.

0.8

Bethune-Cookman

Morgan St.

2.4

Norfolk St.

Coppin St.

6.3

Oregon

Oregon St.

7.3

USC

Arizona

-5.8

UCLA

California

6.8

Arizona St.

Washington St.

6.4

Tennessee

Alabama

-1.1

Florida

Georgia

6.8

Texas A&M

Missouri

-2.7

South Carolina

Arkansas

-2.4

Sam Houston St.

Northwestern St.

5.4

Nicholls St.

Lamar

3.9

New Mexico St.

Chicago St.

29.3

Grand Canyon

UMKC

-1.9

UT Rio Grande Valley

Cal St. Bakersfield

0.3

Seattle

Utah Valley

3.1

 

Today’s TV Schedule

 

Time (EST)

Network

Team

Team

12:00 PM

FS1

Creighton

St. John’s

12:00 PM

NBCSN

Massachusetts

VCU

12:00 PM

BTN

Rutgers

Michigan

12:00 PM

ESPN+

Akron

Ohio

12:30 PM

ESPN

Florida St.

Clemson

12:30 PM

ESPN2

Texas

Texas Tech

1:00 PM

ESPNU

Central Florida

South Florida

1:00 PM

SECN

Tennessee

Alabama

2:00 PM

watchbigsky.com

Eastern Washington

Sacramento State

2:25 PM

BTN

Iowa

Minnesota

2:30 PM

ESPN2

Kansas

Oklahoma State

2:30 PM

ESPN

Duke

NC State

2:30 PM

FS1

Providence

Butler

2:30 PM

NBCSN

St. Bonaventure

George Mason

2:30 PM

ESPN+

Northern Illinois

Miami (O)

3:00 PM

PAC12

Oregon

Oregon St.

3:00 PM

ESPNU

Connecticut

Tulane

3:00 PM

ESPN+

New Mexico St.

Chicago St.

3:00 PM

ESPN3

Cal St. Northridge

Cal St. Fullerton

3:00 PM

SECN

Florida

Georgia

4:30 PM

watchbigsky.com

Portland St.

Montana St.

5:30 PM

ESPN3

UC Santa Barbara

UC Riverside

5:30 PM

ESPN+

Grand Canyon

UMKC

5:30 PM

PAC12

USC

Arizona

6:00 PM

ESPN+

Sam Houston St.

Northwestern St.

6:00 PM

Flohoops pay

Bethune-Cookman

Morgan St.

6:00 PM

NBCSN

Davidson

La Salle

6:30 PM

BTN

Ohio St.

Purdue

6:30 PM

ESPN+

Bowling Green

Toledo

7:00 PM

ESPN2

Baylor

Kansas St.

7:00 PM

FS1

Villanova

DePaul

7:00 PM

ESPN

Virginia

Notre Dame

7:00 PM

SECN

Texas A&M

Missouri

7:00 PM

ESPN3

Rider

Niagara

7:00 PM

Stadium

North Texas

Florida Atlantic

7:30 PM

Facebook

Charlotte

Florida Intl.

7:30 PM

watchbigsky.com

Northern Colorado

Southern Utah

8:00 PM

ESPNU

SMU

Temple

8:30 PM

ESPN+

Nicholls

Lamar

8:30 PM

NBCSN

Duquesne

Fordham

8:30 PM

Flohoops pay

Norfolk St.

Coppin St.

8:55 PM

BTN

Penn St.

Indiana

9:00 PM

ESPN

Louisville

Syracuse

9:00 PM

ESPN2

Oklahoma

West Virginia

9:00 PM

ESPN+

UT Rio Grande Valley

Cal St. Bakersfield

9:00 PM

ESPN3

UC Irvine

Long Beach St.

9:00 PM

SECN

South Carolina

Arkansas

9:00 PM

ESPN+

Ball St.

Kent St.

9:00 PM

PAC12

UCLA

California

9:30 PM

FS1

Seton Hall

Marquette

9:30 PM

ESPN3

Monmouth

Quinnipiac

9:30 PM

Stadium

Western Kentucky

UAB

10:00 PM

watchbigsky.com

Montana

Idaho St.

10:00 PM

Facebook

Louisiana Tech

Marshall

10:00 PM

ESPNU

Memphis

East Carolina

11:30 PM

FS1

Arizona St.

Washington St.

11:30 PM

ESPN3

Hawaii

UC Davis

11:30 PM

ESPN+

Seattle

Utah Valley

 

CONFERENCE TOURNAMENTS UPDATE

 

Yesterday’s Championship Game

 

Patriot League Tournament

Championship

Winner

Score

Loser

Score

Boston U

64

Colgate

61

 

Yesterday’s Other Results

 

Atlantic 10 Tournament

1st Round

Winner

Score

Loser

Score

George Mason

77

Saint Joseph’s

70

Fordham

72

George Washington

52

 

 

Atlantic Coast Tournament

2nd Round

Winner

Score

Loser

Score

Clemson

69

Miami (Fla.)

64

North Carolina St.

73

Pittsburgh

58

Notre Dame

80

Boston College

58

Syracuse

81

North Carolina

53

 

 

Big 12 Tournament

1st Round

Winner

Score

Loser

Score

Oklahoma St.

72

Iowa St.

71

Kansas St.

53

TCU

49

 

 

Big East Tournament

1st Round

Winner

Score

Loser

Score

St. John’s

75

Georgetown

62

DePaul

71

Xavier

67

 

 

Big Sky Tournament

1st Round

Winner

Score

Loser

Score

Sacramento St.

62

Weber St.

54

Southern Utah

75

Idaho

69

Idaho St.

64

Northern Arizona

62

 

 

Big Ten Tournament

1st Round

Winner

Score

Loser

Score

Minnesota

74

Northwestern

57

Indiana

89

Nebraska

64

 

 

Conference USA Tournament

1st Round

Winner

Score

Loser

Score

Florida Atlantic

66

Old Dominion

56

Florida Intl.

85

Rice

76

UAB

74

UTSA

69

Marshall

86

UTEP

78

 

 

Metro Atlantic Athletic Tournament

Quarterfinals

Winner

Score

Loser

Score

Siena

63

Manhattan

49

St. Peter’s

56

Iona

54

 

 

Mid-Eastern Athletic Tournament

Quarterfinals

Winner

Score

Loser

Score

North Carolina Central

92

Delaware St.

75

North Carolina A&T

86

Howard

77

 

 

Pac-12 Tournament

1st Round

Winner

Score

Loser

Score

Oregon St.

71

Utah

69

Arizona

77

Washington

70

California

63

Stanford

51

Washington St.

82

Colorado

68

 

 

Southeastern Tournament

1st Round

Winner

Score

Loser

Score

Georgia

81

Ole Miss

63

Arkansas

86

Vanderbilt

73

 

 

Southland Tournament

1st Round

Winner

Score

Loser

Score

Northwestern St.

79

Texas A&M-CC

62

Lamar

80

McNeese St.

59

 

 

Sun Belt Tournament

Quarterfinals

Winner

Score

Loser

Score

Georgia Southern

81

Georgia St.

62

Texas St.

85

Appalachian St.

68

 

 

Today’s Schedule

 

American Athletic Tournament

1st Round

March 12

Forth Worth, TX (Dickies Arena)

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

8 Central Florida (16-14)

9 South Florida (14-17)

1:00 PM

ESPNU

5 Connecticut (19-12)

12 Tulane (12-18)

3:00 PM

ESPNU

7 SMU (19-11)

10 Temple (14-17)

8:00 PM

ESPNU

6 Memphis (21-10)

11 East Carolina (11-20)

10:00 PM

ESPNU

 

 

Atlantic 10 Tournament

2nd Round

March 12

Brooklyn (Barclays Center)

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

8 Massachusetts (14-17)

9 VCU (18-13)

12:00 PM

NBCSN

5 St. Bonaventure (19-12)

12 George Mason (17-15)

2:30 PM

NBCSN

7 Davidson (16-14)

10 La Salle (15-15)

6:00 PM

NBCSN

6 Duquesne (21-9)

14 Fordham (9-22)

8:30 PM

NBCSN

 

 

Atlantic Coast Tournament

Quarterfinals

March 12

Greensboro, NC (Greensboro Coliseum)

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

1 Florida St. (26-5)

8 Clemson (16-15)

12:30 PM

ESPN

4 Duke (25-6)

5 North Carolina St. (20-12)

2:30 PM

ESPN

2 Virginia (23-7)

7 Notre Dame (20-12)

7:00 PM

ESPN

3 Louisville (24-7)

6 Syracuse (18-14)

9:00 PM

ESPN

 

 

Big 12 Tournament

Quarterfinals

March 12

Kansas City (Sprint Center)

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

4 Texas (19-12)

5 Texas Tech (18-13)

12:30 PM

ESPN2

1 Kansas (28-3)

8 Oklahoma St. (18-14)

2:30 PM

ESPN2

2 Baylor (26-4)

10 Kansas St. (11-21)

7:00 PM

ESPN2

3 Oklahoma (19-12)

6 West Virginia (21-10)

9:00 PM

ESPN2

 

 

Big East Tournament

Quarterfinals

March 12

New York (Madison Square Garden)

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

1 Creighton (24-7)

9 St. John’s (17-15)

12:00 PM

FS1

4 Providence (19-12)

5 Butler (22-9)

2:30 PM

FS1

2 Villanova (24-7)

10 DePaul (16-16)

7:00 PM

FS1

3 Seton Hall (21-9)

6 Marquette (18-12)

9:00 PM

FS1

 

Big Sky Tournament

Quarterfinals

March 12

Boise, ID (Century Link Arena)

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

1 Eastern Washington (23-8)

9 Sacramento St. (16-14)

2:00 PM

watchbigsky.com

4 Portland St. (18-14)

5 Montana St. (16-15)

4:30 PM

watchbigsky.com

2 Northern Colorado (22-9)

7 Southern Utah (17-15)

7:30 PM

watchbigsky.com

3 Montana (18-13)

11 Idaho St. (8-22)

10:00 PM

watchbigsky.com

 

 

Big Ten Tournament

2nd Round

March 12

Indianapolis (Bankers Life Fieldhouse)

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

8 Rutgers (20-11)

9 Michigan (19-12)

12:00 PM

Big Ten Network

5 Iowa (20-11)

12 Minnesota (15-16)

2:30 PM

Big Ten Network

7 Ohio St. (21-10)

10 Purdue (16-15)

6:30 PM

Big Ten Network

6 Penn St. (21-10)

11 Indiana (20-12)

9:00 PM

Big Ten Network

 

 

Big West Tournament

Quarterfinals

March 12

Anaheim, CA (Honda Center)

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

2 Cal St. Northridge (15-17)

7 Cal St. Fullerton (11-20)

3:00 PM

ESPN3

3 UC Santa Barbara (21-10)

6 UC Riverside (17-15)

5:30 PM

ESPN3

1 UC Irvine (21-11)

8 Long Beach St. (11-21)

9:00 PM

ESPN3

4 Hawaii (17-13)

5 UC Davis (14-18)

11:30 PM

ESPN3

 

Conference USA Tournament

Quarterfinals

March 12

Frisco, TX (Ford Center)

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

1 North Texas (20-11)

9 Florida Atlantic (17-15)

7:00 PM Court A

Stadium

4 Charlotte (16-13)

5 Florida Intl. (19-13)

7:30 PM Court B

Facebook

2 Western Kentucky (20-10)

7 UAB (19-13)

9:30 PM Court A

Stadium

3 Louisiana Tech (22-8)

6 Marshall (17-15)

10:00 PM Court B

Facebook

 

 

Metro Atlantic Athletic Tournament

Quarterfinals

March 12

Atlantic City, NJ (Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall)

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

3 Rider (18-12)

6 Niagara (12-20)

7:00 PM 

ESPN3

4 Monmouth (18-13)

5 Quinnipiac (15-15)

9:30 PM 

ESPN3

 

 

Mid-American Tournament (MACtion)

Quarterfinals

March 12

Cleveland (Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse)

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

1 Akron (24-7)

8 Ohio U (17-15)

12:00 PM

ESPN+

4 Northern Illinois (18-13)

12 Miami (O) (13-19)

2:30 PM

ESPN+

2 Bowling Green (21-10)

7 Toledo (17-15)

6:30 PM

ESPN+

3 Ball St. (18-13)

6 Kent St. (20-12)

9:00 PM

ESPN+

 

 

Mid-Eastern Athletic Tournament

Quarterfinals

March 12

Norfolk, VA (Scope Arena)

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

4 Bethune-Cookman (16-14)

5 Morgan St. (15-16)

6:00 PM 

Flohoops (pay)

3 Norfolk St. (16-15)

6 Coppin St. (11-20)

8:00 PM 

Flohoops (pay)

 

 

Pac-12 Tournament

Quarterfinals

March 12

Las Vegas (T-Mobile Arena)

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

1 Oregon (24-7)

8 Oregon St. (18-13)

3:00 PM

Pac-12 Network

4 USC (22-9)

5 Arizona (21-11)

5:30 PM

Pac-12 Network

2 UCLA (19-12)

10 California (14-18)

9:00 PM

Pac-12 Network

3 Arizona St. (20-11)

11 Washington St. (16-16)

11:30 PM

FS1

 

 

Southeastern Tournament

2nd Round

March 12

Nashville (Bridgestone Arena)

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

8 Tennessee (17-14)

9 Alabama (16-15)

1:00 PM

SEC Network

5 Florida (19-12)

13 Georgia (16-16)

3:30 PM

SEC Network

7 Texas A&M (16-14)

10 Missouri (15-16)

7:00 PM

SEC Network

6 South Carolina (18-13)

11 Arkansas (20-12)

9:30 PM

SEC Network

 

 

Southland Tournament

2nd Round

March 12

Katy, TX (Leonard E. Merrell Center)

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

4 Sam Houston St. (18-13)

5 Northwestern St. (15-15)

6:00 PM

ESPN+

3 Nicholls St. (21-10)

6 Lamar (17-15)

8:30 PM

ESPN+

 

 

Western Athletic Tournament

Quarterfinals

March 12

Las Vegas (Orleans Arena)

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

1 New Mexico St. (25-6)

8 Chicago St. (4-25)

3:00 PM

ESPN+

4 Grand Canyon (12-17)

5 Seattle (14-15)

5:30 PM

ESPN+

2 UT Rio Grande Valley (14-16)

7 Utah Valley (11-19)

9:00 PM

ESPN+

3 Kansas City (16-14)

6 Cal St. Bakersfield (12-18)

11:30 PM

ESPN+

 

 

 

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