The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 12, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For March 12, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:01 am

Thursday’s Games

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Massachusetts

VCU

-8.1

St. Bonaventure

George Mason

2.6

Davidson

La Salle

8.4

Duquesne

Fordham

10.5

Central Florida

South Florida

0.1

Connecticut

Tulane

9.7

SMU

Temple

1.5

Memphis

East Carolina

12.4

Florida St.

Clemson

7.1

Duke

North Carolina St.

9.5

Virginia

Notre Dame

1.2

Louisville

Syracuse

6.7

Texas

Texas Tech

-5.5

Kansas

Oklahoma St.

12.0

Baylor

Kansas St.

11.1

Oklahoma

West Virginia

-3.6

Creighton

St. John’s

5.3

Providence

Butler

-1.8

Villanova

DePaul

8.9

Seton Hall

Marquette

1.4

Eastern Washington

Sacramento St.

4.3

Portland St.

Montana St.

2.9

Northern Colorado

Southern Utah

5.3

Montana

Idaho St.

8.9

Rutgers

Michigan

-2.1

Iowa

Minnesota

1.1

Ohio St.

Purdue

2.8

Penn St.

Indiana

1.1

Cal St. Northridge

Cal St. Fullerton

1.2

UC Santa Barbara

UC Riverside

3.0

UC Irvine

Long Beach St.

12.1

Hawaii

UC Davis

1.2

North Texas

Florida Atlantic

7.9

Charlotte

Florida Intl.

-0.6

Western Kentucky

UAB

5.2

Louisiana Tech

Marshall

5.6

Rider

Niagara

7.4

Monmouth

Quinnipiac

3.3

Akron

Ohio

6.6

Northern Illinois

Miami (O)

3.1

Bowling Green

Toledo

-1.4

Ball St.

Kent St.

0.8

Bethune-Cookman

Morgan St.

2.4

Norfolk St.

Coppin St.

6.3

Oregon

Oregon St.

7.3

USC

Arizona

-5.8

UCLA

California

6.8

Arizona St.

Washington St.

6.4

Tennessee

Alabama

-1.1

Florida

Georgia

6.8

Texas A&M

Missouri

-2.7

South Carolina

Arkansas

-2.4

Sam Houston St.

Northwestern St.

5.4

Nicholls St.

Lamar

3.9

New Mexico St.

Chicago St.

29.3

Grand Canyon

UMKC

-1.9

UT Rio Grande Valley

Cal St. Bakersfield

0.3

Seattle

Utah Valley

3.1

 

Today’s TV Schedule

 

Time (EST)

Network

Team

Team

12:00 PM

FS1

Creighton

St. John’s

12:00 PM

NBCSN

Massachusetts

VCU

12:00 PM

BTN

Rutgers

Michigan

12:00 PM

ESPN+

Akron

Ohio

12:30 PM

ESPN

Florida St.

Clemson

12:30 PM

ESPN2

Texas

Texas Tech

1:00 PM

ESPNU

Central Florida

South Florida

1:00 PM

SECN

Tennessee

Alabama

2:00 PM

watchbigsky.com

Eastern Washington

Sacramento State

2:25 PM

BTN

Iowa

Minnesota

2:30 PM

ESPN2

Kansas

Oklahoma State

2:30 PM

ESPN

Duke

NC State

2:30 PM

FS1

Providence

Butler

2:30 PM

NBCSN

St. Bonaventure

George Mason

2:30 PM

ESPN+

Northern Illinois

Miami (O)

3:00 PM

PAC12

Oregon

Oregon St.

3:00 PM

ESPNU

Connecticut

Tulane

3:00 PM

ESPN+

New Mexico St.

Chicago St.

3:00 PM

ESPN3

Cal St. Northridge

Cal St. Fullerton

3:00 PM

SECN

Florida

Georgia

4:30 PM

watchbigsky.com

Portland St.

Montana St.

5:30 PM

ESPN3

UC Santa Barbara

UC Riverside

5:30 PM

ESPN+

Grand Canyon

UMKC

5:30 PM

PAC12

USC

Arizona

6:00 PM

ESPN+

Sam Houston St.

Northwestern St.

6:00 PM

Flohoops pay

Bethune-Cookman

Morgan St.

6:00 PM

NBCSN

Davidson

La Salle

6:30 PM

BTN

Ohio St.

Purdue

6:30 PM

ESPN+

Bowling Green

Toledo

7:00 PM

ESPN2

Baylor

Kansas St.

7:00 PM

FS1

Villanova

DePaul

7:00 PM

ESPN

Virginia

Notre Dame

7:00 PM

SECN

Texas A&M

Missouri

7:00 PM

ESPN3

Rider

Niagara

7:00 PM

Stadium

North Texas

Florida Atlantic

7:30 PM

Facebook

Charlotte

Florida Intl.

7:30 PM

watchbigsky.com

Northern Colorado

Southern Utah

8:00 PM

ESPNU

SMU

Temple

8:30 PM

ESPN+

Nicholls

Lamar

8:30 PM

NBCSN

Duquesne

Fordham

8:30 PM

Flohoops pay

Norfolk St.

Coppin St.

8:55 PM

BTN

Penn St.

Indiana

9:00 PM

ESPN

Louisville

Syracuse

9:00 PM

ESPN2

Oklahoma

West Virginia

9:00 PM

ESPN+

UT Rio Grande Valley

Cal St. Bakersfield

9:00 PM

ESPN3

UC Irvine

Long Beach St.

9:00 PM

SECN

South Carolina

Arkansas

9:00 PM

ESPN+

Ball St.

Kent St.

9:00 PM

PAC12

UCLA

California

9:30 PM

FS1

Seton Hall

Marquette

9:30 PM

ESPN3

Monmouth

Quinnipiac

9:30 PM

Stadium

Western Kentucky

UAB

10:00 PM

watchbigsky.com

Montana

Idaho St.

10:00 PM

Facebook

Louisiana Tech

Marshall

10:00 PM

ESPNU

Memphis

East Carolina

11:30 PM

FS1

Arizona St.

Washington St.

11:30 PM

ESPN3

Hawaii

UC Davis

11:30 PM

ESPN+

Seattle

Utah Valley

 

CONFERENCE TOURNAMENTS UPDATE

 

Yesterday’s Championship Game

 

Patriot League Tournament

Championship

Winner

Score

Loser

Score

Boston U

64

Colgate

61

 

Yesterday’s Other Results

 

Atlantic 10 Tournament

1st Round

Winner

Score

Loser

Score

George Mason

77

Saint Joseph’s

70

Fordham

72

George Washington

52

 

 

Atlantic Coast Tournament

2nd Round

Winner

Score

Loser

Score

Clemson

69

Miami (Fla.)

64

North Carolina St.

73

Pittsburgh

58

Notre Dame

80

Boston College

58

Syracuse

81

North Carolina

53

 

 

Big 12 Tournament

1st Round

Winner

Score

Loser

Score

Oklahoma St.

72

Iowa St.

71

Kansas St.

53

TCU

49

 

 

Big East Tournament

1st Round

Winner

Score

Loser

Score

St. John’s

75

Georgetown

62

DePaul

71

Xavier

67

 

 

Big Sky Tournament

1st Round

Winner

Score

Loser

Score

Sacramento St.

62

Weber St.

54

Southern Utah

75

Idaho

69

Idaho St.

64

Northern Arizona

62

 

 

Big Ten Tournament

1st Round

Winner

Score

Loser

Score

Minnesota

74

Northwestern

57

Indiana

89

Nebraska

64

 

 

Conference USA Tournament

1st Round

Winner

Score

Loser

Score

Florida Atlantic

66

Old Dominion

56

Florida Intl.

85

Rice

76

UAB

74

UTSA

69

Marshall

86

UTEP

78

 

 

Metro Atlantic Athletic Tournament

Quarterfinals

Winner

Score

Loser

Score

Siena

63

Manhattan

49

St. Peter’s

56

Iona

54

 

 

Mid-Eastern Athletic Tournament

Quarterfinals

Winner

Score

Loser

Score

North Carolina Central

92

Delaware St.

75

North Carolina A&T

86

Howard

77

 

 

Pac-12 Tournament

1st Round

Winner

Score

Loser

Score

Oregon St.

71

Utah

69

Arizona

77

Washington

70

California

63

Stanford

51

Washington St.

82

Colorado

68

 

 

Southeastern Tournament

1st Round

Winner

Score

Loser

Score

Georgia

81

Ole Miss

63

Arkansas

86

Vanderbilt

73

 

 

Southland Tournament

1st Round

Winner

Score

Loser

Score

Northwestern St.

79

Texas A&M-CC

62

Lamar

80

McNeese St.

59

 

 

Sun Belt Tournament

Quarterfinals

Winner

Score

Loser

Score

Georgia Southern

81

Georgia St.

62

Texas St.

85

Appalachian St.

68

 

 

Today’s Schedule

 

American Athletic Tournament

1st Round

March 12

Forth Worth, TX (Dickies Arena)

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

8 Central Florida (16-14)

9 South Florida (14-17)

1:00 PM

ESPNU

5 Connecticut (19-12)

12 Tulane (12-18)

3:00 PM

ESPNU

7 SMU (19-11)

10 Temple (14-17)

8:00 PM

ESPNU

6 Memphis (21-10)

11 East Carolina (11-20)

10:00 PM

ESPNU

 

 

Atlantic 10 Tournament

2nd Round

March 12

Brooklyn (Barclays Center)

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

8 Massachusetts (14-17)

9 VCU (18-13)

12:00 PM

NBCSN

5 St. Bonaventure (19-12)

12 George Mason (17-15)

2:30 PM

NBCSN

7 Davidson (16-14)

10 La Salle (15-15)

6:00 PM

NBCSN

6 Duquesne (21-9)

14 Fordham (9-22)

8:30 PM

NBCSN

 

 

Atlantic Coast Tournament

Quarterfinals

March 12

Greensboro, NC (Greensboro Coliseum)

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

1 Florida St. (26-5)

8 Clemson (16-15)

12:30 PM

ESPN

4 Duke (25-6)

5 North Carolina St. (20-12)

2:30 PM

ESPN

2 Virginia (23-7)

7 Notre Dame (20-12)

7:00 PM

ESPN

3 Louisville (24-7)

6 Syracuse (18-14)

9:00 PM

ESPN

 

 

Big 12 Tournament

Quarterfinals

March 12

Kansas City (Sprint Center)

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

4 Texas (19-12)

5 Texas Tech (18-13)

12:30 PM

ESPN2

1 Kansas (28-3)

8 Oklahoma St. (18-14)

2:30 PM

ESPN2

2 Baylor (26-4)

10 Kansas St. (11-21)

7:00 PM

ESPN2

3 Oklahoma (19-12)

6 West Virginia (21-10)

9:00 PM

ESPN2

 

 

Big East Tournament

Quarterfinals

March 12

New York (Madison Square Garden)

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

1 Creighton (24-7)

9 St. John’s (17-15)

12:00 PM

FS1

4 Providence (19-12)

5 Butler (22-9)

2:30 PM

FS1

2 Villanova (24-7)

10 DePaul (16-16)

7:00 PM

FS1

3 Seton Hall (21-9)

6 Marquette (18-12)

9:00 PM

FS1

 

Big Sky Tournament

Quarterfinals

March 12

Boise, ID (Century Link Arena)

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

1 Eastern Washington (23-8)

9 Sacramento St. (16-14)

2:00 PM

watchbigsky.com

4 Portland St. (18-14)

5 Montana St. (16-15)

4:30 PM

watchbigsky.com

2 Northern Colorado (22-9)

7 Southern Utah (17-15)

7:30 PM

watchbigsky.com

3 Montana (18-13)

11 Idaho St. (8-22)

10:00 PM

watchbigsky.com

 

 

Big Ten Tournament

2nd Round

March 12

Indianapolis (Bankers Life Fieldhouse)

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

8 Rutgers (20-11)

9 Michigan (19-12)

12:00 PM

Big Ten Network

5 Iowa (20-11)

12 Minnesota (15-16)

2:30 PM

Big Ten Network

7 Ohio St. (21-10)

10 Purdue (16-15)

6:30 PM

Big Ten Network

6 Penn St. (21-10)

11 Indiana (20-12)

9:00 PM

Big Ten Network

 

 

Big West Tournament

Quarterfinals

March 12

Anaheim, CA (Honda Center)

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

2 Cal St. Northridge (15-17)

7 Cal St. Fullerton (11-20)

3:00 PM

ESPN3

3 UC Santa Barbara (21-10)

6 UC Riverside (17-15)

5:30 PM

ESPN3

1 UC Irvine (21-11)

8 Long Beach St. (11-21)

9:00 PM

ESPN3

4 Hawaii (17-13)

5 UC Davis (14-18)

11:30 PM

ESPN3

 

Conference USA Tournament

Quarterfinals

March 12

Frisco, TX (Ford Center)

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

1 North Texas (20-11)

9 Florida Atlantic (17-15)

7:00 PM Court A

Stadium

4 Charlotte (16-13)

5 Florida Intl. (19-13)

7:30 PM Court B

Facebook

2 Western Kentucky (20-10)

7 UAB (19-13)

9:30 PM Court A

Stadium

3 Louisiana Tech (22-8)

6 Marshall (17-15)

10:00 PM Court B

Facebook

 

 

Metro Atlantic Athletic Tournament

Quarterfinals

March 12

Atlantic City, NJ (Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall)

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

3 Rider (18-12)

6 Niagara (12-20)

7:00 PM 

ESPN3

4 Monmouth (18-13)

5 Quinnipiac (15-15)

9:30 PM 

ESPN3

 

 

Mid-American Tournament (MACtion)

Quarterfinals

March 12

Cleveland (Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse)

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

1 Akron (24-7)

8 Ohio U (17-15)

12:00 PM

ESPN+

4 Northern Illinois (18-13)

12 Miami (O) (13-19)

2:30 PM

ESPN+

2 Bowling Green (21-10)

7 Toledo (17-15)

6:30 PM

ESPN+

3 Ball St. (18-13)

6 Kent St. (20-12)

9:00 PM

ESPN+

 

 

Mid-Eastern Athletic Tournament

Quarterfinals

March 12

Norfolk, VA (Scope Arena)

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

4 Bethune-Cookman (16-14)

5 Morgan St. (15-16)

6:00 PM 

Flohoops (pay)

3 Norfolk St. (16-15)

6 Coppin St. (11-20)

8:00 PM 

Flohoops (pay)

 

 

Pac-12 Tournament

Quarterfinals

March 12

Las Vegas (T-Mobile Arena)

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

1 Oregon (24-7)

8 Oregon St. (18-13)

3:00 PM

Pac-12 Network

4 USC (22-9)

5 Arizona (21-11)

5:30 PM

Pac-12 Network

2 UCLA (19-12)

10 California (14-18)

9:00 PM

Pac-12 Network

3 Arizona St. (20-11)

11 Washington St. (16-16)

11:30 PM

FS1

 

 

Southeastern Tournament

2nd Round

March 12

Nashville (Bridgestone Arena)

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

8 Tennessee (17-14)

9 Alabama (16-15)

1:00 PM

SEC Network

5 Florida (19-12)

13 Georgia (16-16)

3:30 PM

SEC Network

7 Texas A&M (16-14)

10 Missouri (15-16)

7:00 PM

SEC Network

6 South Carolina (18-13)

11 Arkansas (20-12)

9:30 PM

SEC Network

 

 

Southland Tournament

2nd Round

March 12

Katy, TX (Leonard E. Merrell Center)

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

4 Sam Houston St. (18-13)

5 Northwestern St. (15-15)

6:00 PM

ESPN+

3 Nicholls St. (21-10)

6 Lamar (17-15)

8:30 PM

ESPN+

 

 

Western Athletic Tournament

Quarterfinals

March 12

Las Vegas (Orleans Arena)

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

1 New Mexico St. (25-6)

8 Chicago St. (4-25)

3:00 PM

ESPN+

4 Grand Canyon (12-17)

5 Seattle (14-15)

5:30 PM

ESPN+

2 UT Rio Grande Valley (14-16)

7 Utah Valley (11-19)

9:00 PM

ESPN+

3 Kansas City (16-14)

6 Cal St. Bakersfield (12-18)

11:30 PM

ESPN+

 

 

 

March 4, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For March 4, 2020

Wednesday’s Games

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Arkansas

LSU

2.8

Auburn

Texas A&M

12.7

Butler

St. John’s

7.6

Central Florida

SMU

-0.2

Charlotte

North Texas

-3.9

Colorado St.

Wyoming

14.3

Creighton

Georgetown

8.9

Eastern Illinois

Jacksonville St.

4.8

Fresno St.

Air Force

4.0

George Mason

Saint Louis

-2.8

George Washington

Fordham

5.7

Georgia

Florida

-2.2

Georgia Tech

Pittsburgh

6.7

Incarnate Word

Houston Baptist

2.8

Indiana

Minnesota

2.9

Iona

Quinnipiac

5.5

Kansas

TCU

18.2

La Salle

Massachusetts

3.3

Long Island

Fairleigh Dickinson

4.8

Louisiana Tech

Florida Intl.

9.2

Marist

Canisius

0.2

Marshall

Florida Atlantic

5.6

Miami (Fla.)

Virginia

-1.4

Middle Tennessee

UTEP

-2.4

Monmouth

Fairfield

8.0

New Mexico

San Jose St.

10.5

Nicholls

McNeese

5.9

Northwestern St.

New Orleans

3.4

Notre Dame

Florida St.

-2.7

Oklahoma St.

Kansas St.

6.2

Old Dominion

UTSA

4.6

Ole Miss

Missouri

4.3

Providence

Xavier

3.1

Rhode Island

Dayton

-4.1

Rider

Manhattan

7.6

Robert Morris

St. Francis (NY)

8.6

Sacred Heart

Mount St. Mary’s

8.6

Seton Hall

Villanova

4.3

Siena

Niagara

10.7

Southeast Louisiana

Central Arkansas

-3.4

Southern Miss

Rice

-0.5

St. Bonaventure

Saint Joseph’s

11.8

St. Francis (PA)

Bryant

6.5

Temple

Tulsa

2.0

Tennessee St.

Morehead St.

6.1

Texas A&M-CC

Sam Houston St.

-2.8

UC Irvine

Cal St. Northridge

12.8

Virginia Tech

Clemson

0.9

Wisconsin

Northwestern

13.5

 

Key TV Games on Wednesday

 

Time (EST)

Network

Home

Visitor

6:30 PM

FS1

Providence

Xavier

7:00 PM

SECN

Arkansas

LSU

8:00 PM

ESPN+

Kansas

TCU

8:30 PM

FS1

Seton Hall

Villanova

9:00 PM

CBSSN

Rhode Island

Dayton

 

Conference Tournament Section

 

Tuesday’s Results

 

Atlantic Sun Tournament 

Quarterfinals

Winner

Score

Loser

Score

Liberty

55

NJIT

49

Stetson

82

North Alabama

72

Lipscomb

68

Florida Gulf Coast

63

North Florida

91

Jacksonville

88

 

Semifinals

March 5

at Higher Seed’s Home Court

Home

Visitor

Time (ET)

TV

1 Liberty (28-4)

4 Stetson (16-16)

7:00 PM

ESPN+

2 North Florida (21-11)

3 Lipscomb (15-15)

7:00 PM

ESPN+

 

 

Big South Tournament

1st Round

Winner

Score

Loser

Score

USC Upstate

69

High Point

59

UNC-Asheville

72

Campbell

68

Charleston Southern

81

Presbyterian

64

 

Quarterfinals

March 5

at #1 Seed Radford

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

2 Winthrop (21-10)

7 USC Upstate (13-19)

12:00 PM

ESPN3

3 Gardner-Webb (15-15)

6 UNC-Asheville (15-15)

2:00 PM

ESPN3

1 Radford (20-10)

8 Charleston Southern (14-17)

6:00 PM

ESPN3

4 Longwood (14-17)

5 Hampton (13-18)

8:00 PM

ESPN3

 

 

Horizon League Tournament

1st Round

Winner

Score

Loser

Score

Illinois Chicago

93

IUPUI

59

Youngstown St.

63

Milwaukee

57

Oakland

80

Cleveland St.

59

 

Quarterfinals

March 5

at Higher Seed’s Home Court

Home

Visitor

Time (ET)

TV

3 Green Bay (16-15)

6 Oakland (14-18)

8:00 PM

ESPN+

4 Illinois Chicago (15-17)

5 Youngstown (18-14)

8:00 PM

ESPN+

 

Patriot League Tournament

1st Round

Winner

Score

Loser

Score

Bucknell

65

Holy Cross

62

Lehigh

78

Loyola (MD)

75

 

Quarterfinals

March 5

at Higher Seed’s Home Court

Home

Visitor

Time (ET)

TV

2 American (16-13)

7 Bucknell (13-19)

7:00 PM

Pat League Network

3 Boston U (18-13)

6 Navy (14-15)

7:00 PM

Pat League Network

4 Army (15-14)

5 Lafayette (18-11)

7:00 PM

Pat League Network

1 Colgate (23-8)

8 Lehigh (11-20)

7:00 PM

Pat League Network

 

 

Tournaments Beginning Wednesday

 

Mountain West Tournament

1st Round

March 4

Las Vegas (Thomas & Mack Center)

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

8 Fresno St. (11-18)

9 Air Force (11-19)

3:00 PM

Mountain West Net.

7 New Mexico (18-13)

10 San Jose St. (7-23)

5:30 PM

Mountain West Net.

6 Colorado St. (20-11)

11 Wyoming (7-23)

8:00 PM

Mountain West Net.

 

 

Northeast Tournament

Quarterfinals

March 4

at Higher Seed’s Home Court

Home

Visitor

Time (ET)

TV

1 Robert Morris (17-14)

8 St. Francis (NY) (13-17)

7:00 PM

http://necfrontrow.com/

2 St. Francis (PA) (20-9)

7 Bryant (15-16)

7:00 PM

http://necfrontrow.com/

3 Sacred Heart (19-12)

6 Mount St. Mary’s (11-20)

7:00 PM

http://necfrontrow.com/

4 Long Island (14-17)

5 Fairleigh-Dickinson (11-18)

7:00 PM

http://necfrontrow.com/

 

 

Ohio Valley Tournament

1st Round

March 4

Evansville, IN (Ford Center)

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

5 Tennessee St. (17-14)

8 Morehead St. (13-18)

7:30 PM

ESPN+

6 Eastern Illinois (16-14)

7 Jacksonville St. (13-18)

9:30 PM

ESPN+

 

 

 

February 23, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For February 23, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:47 am

Sunday’s Games

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Boise St.

New Mexico

7.8

Boston University

American

6.9

Bryant

Sacred Heart

0.1

Cincinnati

Wichita St.

2.8

Colgate

Holy Cross

19.5

Connecticut

South Florida

8.0

Creighton

Butler

5.4

Detroit

Milwaukee

0.8

East Carolina

Temple

-4.5

Evansville

Indiana St.

-6.6

Fairfield

Siena

-3.3

Fairleigh Dickinson

Robert Morris

-1.3

Indiana

Penn St.

-0.4

Lafayette

Loyola (MD)

14.5

Lehigh

Bucknell

-1.1

Manhattan

Canisius

3.4

Marist

Niagara

1.8

Monmouth

Quinnipiac

6.4

Mount St. Mary’s

Merrimack

-0.5

Northern Iowa

Southern Illinois

11.6

Northwestern

Minnesota

-4.8

Notre Dame

Miami (Fla.)

6.9

Oakland

Green Bay

2.7

Ohio St.

Maryland

2.9

Saint Peter’s

Rider

1.7

Seton Hall

St. John’s

10.2

South Dakota St.

South Dakota

6.4

St. Francis (NY)

Wagner

6.7

St. Francis (PA)

Long Island

7.9

Utah

USC

-2.1

Washington St.

Stanford

-4.1

Wisconsin

Rutgers

3.7

 

Sunday’s Key TV Games

 

Time (EST)

Network

Home

Visitor

12:00 PM

FS1

Indiana

Penn St.

1:00 PM

ESPN

Cincinnati

Wichita St.

1:00 PM

BTN

Wisconsin

Rutgers

2:00 PM

ESPN3

Saint Peter’s

Rider

2:00 PM

ESPNU

Northern Iowa

Southern Illinois

3:00 PM

ESPN+

South Dakota St.

South Dakota

4:00 PM

CBS

Ohio St.

Maryland

4:00 PM

FS1

Creighton

Butler

 

 

 

 

February 12, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For February 12, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:28 am

Wednesday’s Games

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Abilene Christian

Houston Baptist

16.6

American

Loyola (MD)

6.2

Army

Lafayette

-1.8

Auburn

Alabama

5.6

Binghamton

Stony Brook

-10.6

Bradley

Indiana St.

2.9

Butler

Xavier

6.3

Central Arkansas

New Orleans

4.7

Chattanooga

VMI

9.1

East Tennessee St.

Citadel

21.9

Evansville

Loyola (Chi)

-8.6

Georgia

South Carolina

2.6

Georgia Tech

Louisville

-5.6

Hartford

Albany

1.5

Hawaii

Long Beach St.

11.8

La Salle

Richmond

-4.7

Lehigh

Holy Cross

7.4

Miami (Fla.)

Boston College

5.4

Missouri St.

Drake

2.2

Navy

Bucknell

4.3

Niagara

Canisius

-0.8

Nicholls

Lamar

8.2

Northern Iowa

Illinois St.

16.1

Northwestern

Michigan

-6.3

Northwestern St.

Incarnate Word

9.5

Ohio St.

Rutgers

6.5

Oklahoma

Iowa St.

5.6

Oral Roberts

Omaha

7.4

Pittsburgh

Clemson

4.4

Samford

Furman

-12.4

San Jose St.

Fresno St.

-6.5

Seton Hall

Creighton

6.0

SMU

Connecticut

2.5

South Dakota

Western Illinois

14.2

South Florida

Houston

-6.6

Southeast Louisiana

Sam Houston St.

-9.8

St. John’s

Providence

1.8

Texas A&M

Florida

-5.6

Texas A&M-CC

Stephen F. Austin

-7.8

Tulane

Temple

-3.8

Tulsa

East Carolina

12.3

UAB

Middle Tennessee

8.2

UC Riverside

UC Irvine

-3.9

UMass Lowell

Maine

6.8

UNC Greensboro

Western Carolina

10.3

UNLV

Nevada

-1.3

Valparaiso

Southern Illinois

2.7

VCU

George Mason

14.4

Vermont

New Hampshire

15.7

Villanova

Marquette

2.8

West Virginia

Kansas

-0.9

Wofford

Mercer

8.3

 

Wednesday’s Top TV Games

Time (EST)

Network

Home

Visitor

6:30 PM

FS1

Seton Hall

Creighton

6:30 PM

CBSSN

Butler

Xavier

7:00 PM

ESPN+

West Virginia

Kansas

7:00 PM

BTN

Ohio St.

Rutgers

8:30 PM

FS1

Villanova

Marquette

 

The 25-Teams Could Win The NCAA Championship Myth

 

If you view a national basketball telecast this year, the so-called experts announcing the games repeatedly say that this season is different because there are no overly dominating teams in college basketball.  These scribes say that 25 different teams could be good enough to win the national championship.  Some even say that 40 different teams are talented enough to make the Final Four.

We at the PiRate Ratings tend to be contrarian in nature.  We just don’t buy these theories of parity.  Certainly, none of the teams in this year’s Top 10 appear to be as talented and dominant as any of the Top 10 teams of the past decade.  However, none of the teams outside of the Top 10 appear to be as talented as their counterparts of the past decade.

We do not see the parity that others see, and the analytics when compared on a one season basis, actually tell us that fewer than 10 teams this season have statistical resumes worthy of contending for a national championship.

If you have been reading our chicken scratch long enough, you obviously know that we value certain data when predicting the outcomes of college basketball games past the Ides of March.  We have looked at reams and reams of data dating back to the years where statistics were kept on these games and have identified consistencies in the champions that other teams could not match.

Namely, the ability to rebound the basketball on the offensive end and get extra shooting chances appears to be much more valuable in the Big Dance than it is in the regular season, because so many of the tournament teams are in the top group of defensive teams.  Additionally, being able to protect the ball and limit turnovers has become more and more important in the 21st Century, because the age of pressing full court for 40 minutes and then relying on fast breaks off these turnovers just doesn’t happen like it used to work when UCLA ran its incredible 2-2-1 press and Rick Pitino used his matchup press defense at Kentucky.  So many of the top teams have little to no problem defeating the press defense and exploiting it for points that this strategy has become a non-factor most of the time.

Teams with excellent offensive efficiency, very good defensive efficiency, an ability to hold onto the ball, and a highly-ranked offensive rebounding rate rise above the rest when there are just 68 teams remaining in contention for the title.  Additionally, teams that lack this ability to rebound on the offensive end or limit turnovers have been vulnerable to early round upsets, as was seen multiple times with teams like Georgetown and Vanderbilt in the past decade, two notorious teams that were excellent offensive efficiency teams, very good defensive efficiency teams, but lousy offensive rebounding teams with no turnover margin advantage.

When you combine the teams that possess excellent offensive efficiency, very good defensive efficiency, strong rebounding ability with decent turnover prevention, and then said team has played a schedule that ranks in the top 35% of college basketball (basically a Power Conference), these are the teams that have National Championship Resumes.

By now, we hope you are wondering how many teams currently fit this National Championship footprint?  How many have excellent offensive efficiency, very good defensive efficiency, highly-ranked offensive rebounding ability, and a good rate of taking care of the rock?

The answer is far from the 25 to 40 teams that the hardwood pundits claim.  As of Wednesday, February 12, there are only 3 teams that possess these national championship worthy resumes.

Those three teams are: Duke, Gonzaga, and San Diego State.  Gonzaga and San Diego State just barely qualify on the basis of schedule strength, and unfortunately for the Aztecs in the Mountain West Conference, their remaining schedule might lower their overall schedule strength to remove SDSU from this list.

Because the West Coast Conference is abnormally stronger this season, Gonzaga still has enough games against opponents that will maintain the Bulldogs’ schedule strength above the line needed to qualify.

So, the next time you hear that this could be the year that somebody like Penn State or Rutgers makes an unexpected run to the national title, or that this is the year the Pac-12 returns to prominence with Oregon or Arizona winning it all, refer them to this data that says this is not so.  For now, we would tend to believe that Duke and Gonzaga are runaway top contenders.  We aren’t saying that somebody else might get hot and move into the field of legitimate contenders, since there is a month to go until Selection Sunday, but when somebody says that 25 teams today are good enough to win the title, laugh at the statement and educate them in the analytics of long historical importance.

Let’s take a look at the supposed biggest dark horse national champion in the last 60 years.  The infamous 1966 Texas Western Miners (UTEP today) pulled off the monumental upset over the mighty Kentucky Wildcats.  Was Texas Western a use anomaly that year?  Did they come from out of nowhere to upset the trends and blow this theory apart?

Quite the opposite.  The issue that year wasn’t the mathematics; it was the publicity.  Texas Western was no dark horse.  Let’s take a look at the stats available to us.

First, let’s start with the obvious.  What was the Miners strength of schedule?  They were an independent in 1966, which in those days was the largest group of all.  There were close to 50 Division I Independents then, and they included some of the top teams in the nation like former National Champion Loyola of Chicago, future National Runner-up Dayton, Providence, Houston, and Syracuse.

Texas Western finished the regular season with a 23-1 record and were ranked #3 in the polls.  When has the #3-ranked team ever been considered a dark horse or surprise team?  Just because the Nabobs of the Eastern Elite Media didn’t dub the Miners with their accolades, it did not make the Miners a dark horse.

The Miners played one Top 10 team in the regular season.  They slaughtered Iowa by 18 points.  They beat a host of above average teams by well above average margins and blew out the rest of the teams on their schedule until the final game.   They lost by two at Seattle, when the Chieftains were still a strong program and just seven years removed from appearing in the National Championship Game.

The issue with the established press is that all these TW wins came against teams west of the Mississippi River.  The media didn’t realize that the Miners had outrebounded their opponents by an average of 51.5 to 36.2 in their 24 regular season games.  They didn’t know that the Miners had one of the toughest defenses in the nation, limiting opponents to an estimated 79 points per 100 possessions (not exact because offensive rebounds and turnovers were not official stats then),  They didn’t see that the Miners were quite efficient for the day with an estimated 99 points per 100 possessions.  Remember that there was no three-point line then, and anything over 85 points per 100 possessions was above average.  That Texas Western team also took good care of the ball.  They had exceptional ball handlers in Bobby Joe Hill, Willie Worsley, and Orsten Artis.

Texas Western began tournament play with an easy 15-point victory over Oklahoma City, holding the Chiefs 25 points under their average of nearly 100 points per game.  The Miners dominated on the glass and proved to be much too quick for the Chiefs, fouling out four of OKC’s starters.

In the second round, TW had to go to overtime to beat the favored Cincinnati Bearcats.  Cincinnati actually controlled the boards, but the Miners won with steals and not turning the ball over.  It was the only game where the other team won the rebounding war, but the difference in turnovers was huge.

In the Midwest Regional Final, Texas Western faced a favored Kansas team that featured all-American center Walt Wesley and 1st team all-Big 8 guard Jo Jo White.  The press basically advanced the Jayhawks to the Final Four before this game began, but the Miners proved to be too quick for the slower KU team.  TW won the rebounding and turnover battle, and Kansas’s two stars were matched by the Miners’ balance.  On to the Final Four in College Park, Maryland, went the Miners, finally playing games in the East.

The Final Four was nothing like it is today.  The University of Maryland’s gymnasium was no 70,000-seat dome stadium. Cole Field House seated about 12,000.  However, the press made a big deal out of half of this field.  The Eastern Region Champion Duke Blue Devils, the number two team in the nation placed the Mideast Region Champion Kentucky Wildcats, the number one team in the nation.  The winner of this game would then win the National Championship Game the next night against the winner of the other semifinal game.  Texas Western and Utah were there too.

The semifinal games were both close.  Kentucky came from behind to nip Duke, while Texas Western stayed ahead of Utah most of the game but never ran away from the Utes, thanks to superstar forward Jerry Chambers keeping the Utes in the game.

The Championship Game was considered an afterthought.  The mighty Wildcats of Kentucky were basketball royalty with their Baron, Adolph Rupp.  Texas Western was this tiny school from El Paso with a coach that had learned the game from the great Hank Iba, but they were almost as much a patsy for Kentucky’s soon to be fifth national title as the Washington Generals were for the Harlem Globetrotters.

There were some astute professional gamblers that knew what was really about to happen.  Kentucky’s players were quite talented.  They could shoot the ball about as competently as any team in the history of the game, and with Louie Dampier and Pat Riley on the perimeter, they could quickly shoot a weaker opponent out of the gym.  Kentucky’s devastating 1-3-1 zone trap defense had forced numerous opponents out of their normal offense, where they either turned the ball over or took a hurried shot.  It had worked like a charm 27 times out of 28.  Ironically, just like Texas Western, Kentucky only lost their regular season finale at Tennessee, a team that would win the SEC the following year.

The “Sharp” gamblers knew something that most of the rest of the nation and just about all of the Eastern Establishment media did not know.  Texas Western was much quicker than Kentucky.  Their man to man defense was stronger than Kentucky’s 1-3-1 zone trap, and it did not surrender a handful of easy buckets like the gambling press.

In the opening minutes of the game, neither team could find the range, but Kentucky’s fast break led to a couple of baskets.  Additionally in the first part of the game Kentucky enjoyed a huge rebounding edge, as the Wildcats missed multiple offensive tips.  Texas Western scored on some lob passes over the zone for easy layups, and even though they were a tad sloppy with the ball, they limited turnovers, being called for a couple of travelling violations but not giving UK easy breakaway baskets off steals.

The key sequence of the game was when Kentucky’s Tommy Kron dribbled the ball up the floor guarded man to man and then from the blind-side, Bobby Joe Hill came in and stole the ball, driving for an easy layup.  The play tightened the screws on the favored Wildcats.  On the very next possession, star guard Louie Dampier brought the ball up the middle of the floor, and Hill pressured him to the left.  As Dampier attempted to cross over, Hill stole the ball again and drove for another easy basket.

Texas Western never relinquished the lead the rest of the night.  As the game continued, Kentucky only had one shooting opportunity per possession, while Texas Western had second and third chances.  Thunderous dunks by power player David Latin allowed the patient Miners to keep the lead.  Kentucky had chances to tie or take the lead, but every time, the Texas Western defense held and secured the rebound.

Can San Diego State be this year’s Texas Western?  Can Gonzaga finally get over the hump and win the National Championship?  Will Coach Mike Krzyzewski win another national championship?  If we had to predict the champion today, we believe these are the only three possible teams that could go from 68 to 1.  Duke has the perfect resume this year.  We’ll see if anybody else joins the group of championship-worthy teams in the final four weeks before Selection Sunday.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

February 5, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For February 5, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 1:35 am

Wednesday’s Games

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Albany

Binghamton

10.5

Army

Boston University

-3.3

Butler

Villanova

3.7

Cal Poly

Long Beach St.

1.8

Cal St. Fullerton

UC Riverside

-0.7

Chattanooga

East Tennessee St.

-5.1

Drake

Bradley

-0.8

Evansville

Southern Illinois

-4.6

Florida

Georgia

8.8

Florida Intl.

Florida Atlantic

3.4

Furman

Mercer

12.9

Georgetown

Seton Hall

-1.4

Holy Cross

Loyola (MD)

-2.9

Incarnate Word

Sam Houston St.

-14.2

Indiana St.

Loyola (Chi)

0.1

Lamar

Central Arkansas

5.4

Lehigh

Colgate

-7.7

Louisville

Wake Forest

15.6

Memphis

Temple

8.1

Miami

North Carolina St.

-0.6

Minnesota

Wisconsin

2.7

Missouri St.

Illinois St.

6.2

Navy

American

3.1

Northwestern St.

Abilene Christian

-5.1

Notre Dame

Pittsburgh

5.7

Oklahoma St.

TCU

2.8

Ole Miss

South Carolina

0.4

Omaha

North Dakota St.

-1.8

Providence

Creighton

-1.5

Purdue

Iowa

1.2

Purdue Fort Wayne

Western Illinois

7.6

Saint Louis

Duquesne

2.9

Samford

Western Carolina

-5.1

Southeast Louisiana

Houston Baptist

5.4

St. Bonaventure

George Washington

8.3

Stephen F. Austin

Nicholls St.

8.5

Stony Brook

UMass Lowell

12.2

Texas A&M-CC

McNeese St.

-0.9

UMBC

Hartford

0.9

UNC Greensboro

Citadel

20.0

Utah St.

UNLV

10.9

Valparaiso

Northern Iowa

-6.4

Vanderbilt

LSU

-10.0

Vermont

Maine

21.9

Virginia

Clemson

6.3

VMI

Wofford

-5.6

West Virginia

Iowa St

12.5

 

Top Eight Basketball Games on TV Wednesday

 

Time (EST)

Network

Home

Visitor

6:00 PM

CBSSN

Indiana St.

Loyola (Chi)

6:30 PM

FS1

Butler

Villanova

7:00 PM

BTN

Purdue

Iowa

7:00 PM

ESPN+

Saint Louis

Duquesne

7:00 PM

ESPNU

Florida

Georgia

7:30 PM

ESPN+

Stephen F. Austin

Nicholls St.

8:30 PM

FS1

Georgetown

Seton Hall

9:00 PM

BTN

Minnesota

Wisconsin

 

 

January 22, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 22, 2020

Spreads For Games Being Played Wednesday

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Xavier

Georgetown

2.6

Auburn

South Carolina

10.9

Louisville

Georgia Tech

13.6

Dayton

St. Bonaventure

16.9

Michigan

Penn St.

4.0

Mississippi St.

Arkansas

1.4

Richmond

La Salle

11.7

Rhode Island

Duquesne

4.3

Fordham

George Washington

0.3

Stony Brook

Binghamton

17.9

Hartford

UMBC

4.6

Albany

UMass Lowell

4.7

Notre Dame

Syracuse

3.2

Temple

Cincinnati

0.1

Marist

Manhattan

-4.2

Loyola (MD)

American

0.4

Lafayette

Army

9.7

Boston U

Navy

5.8

Evansville

Drake

-6.1

Chattanooga

Citadel

10.2

Mercer

Western Carolina

-2.0

Furman

Samford

16.3

Maine

Vermont

-15.9

Davidson

Saint Louis

3.3

George Mason

Massachusetts

5.9

Marshall

Western Kentucky

-0.2

Wofford

VMI

11.8

Holy Cross

Lehigh

-3.5

Northwestern St.

Stephen F. Austin

-10.5

Little Rock

Troy

10.0

Incarnate Word

Lamar

-7.1

Nicholls St.

Houston Baptist

16.4

Loyola (Chi)

Indiana St.

5.1

Texas A&M-CC

New Orleans

4.6

SMU

East Carolina

15.3

Bradley

Illinois St.

11.2

SE Louisiana

McNeese St.

-3.5

South Dakota St.

North Dakota St.

3.6

Virginia Tech

North Carolina

5.4

Seton Hall

Providence

11.4

Sam Houston St.

Abilene Christian

5.3

Tulsa

Memphis

-4.5

DePaul

Creighton

0.5

Pittsburgh

Boston College

10.9

Iowa

Rutgers

5.6

Vanderbilt

Alabama

-8.3

Southern Illinois

Northern Iowa

-6.6

Colorado St.

Fresno St.

4.4

California Baptist

Chicago St.

25.3

UC Davis

Cal St. Fullerton

5.1

Long Beach St.

UC Irvine

-9.6

UCSB

Cal St. Northridge

9.9

Nevada

UNLV

5.1

 

 

 

 

 

March 1, 2019

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For Friday, March 1, 2019

March 1, 2019

Seed Team Team Team Team
1 Gonzaga Virginia Kentucky Duke
2 Michigan St. North Carolina Tennessee Michigan
3 Houston Purdue LSU Texas Tech
4 Kansas Virginia Tech Marquette Nevada
5 Kansas St. Iowa St. Florida St. Mississippi St.
6 Maryland Wisconsin Baylor Villanova
7 Wofford Cincinnati Louisville Buffalo
8 Ohio St. Florida Syracuse Iowa
9 St. John’s Washington Auburn Oklahoma
10 Ole Miss TCU North Carolina St. Virginia Commonwealth
11 Central Florida Texas Utah St. Temple
12 Alabama/Seton Hall Clemson/Minnesota Belmont Lipscomb
13 New Mexico St. Hofstra Yale Vermont
14 Old Dominion South Dakota St. UC-Irvine Montana
15 Texas St. Radford Drake Wright St.
16 Colgate Sam Houston Texas Sou./St. Francis (PA) Siena/Norfolk St.

 

Last 4 In Alabama Clemson Minnesota Seton Hall
Last 4 Bye Central Florida Texas Utah St. Temple
First 4 Out Arizona St. Butler Georgetown Furman
Next 4 Out UNC Greensboro Dayton Murray St. Memphis

 

Bids By Conference Bids
ACC 9
Big Ten 8
Big 12 8
SEC 8
AAC 4
Big East 4
MWC 2
One-Bid Leagues 25

 

Note: We expect a school other than Washington will win the Pac-12 Conference Tournament and thus allow two Pac-12 teams to go to the NCAA Tournament.  For now, Arizona State has played itself outside the at-large pool after a short stay in the last four in.

We also believe there is a decent chance that a school other than Buffalo might win the MAC Championship.  If this happens, then the MAC will get two teams in the field.

Wofford is most likely going to get in the field whether or not they earn the automatic bid from the Southern Conference.  Should UNC-Greensboro, Furman, or East Tennessee State win the SoCon Tournament over Wofford, then we believe the Terriers will get an at-large bid, giving this league its first ever multi-bid season.

The Ohio Valley Conference could get consideration for two teams if Belmont and Murray State keep winning and meet in the Championship Game of the OVC Tournament.

Should the nearly impossible happen, and Gonzaga loses in the West Coast Conference Tournament, then the WCC will get two bids.  Saint Mary’s could strengthen its at-large hopes if they upset Gonzaga Saturday night.

 

 

 

 

February 18, 2019

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For Monday, February 18, 2019

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:11 pm

February 18, 2019

Seed

School

Conf.

1

Gonzaga

West Coast

1

Duke

ACC

1

Virginia

ACC

1

Tennessee

SEC

2

Kentucky

SEC

2

Michigan St.

Big Ten

2

Michigan

Big Ten

2

North Carolina

ACC

3

Purdue

Big Ten

3

Houston

American Athletic

3

Kansas

Big 12

3

Nevada

Mountain West

4

LSU

SEC

4

Marquette

Big East

4

Iowa St.

Big 12

4

Virginia Tech

ACC

5

Louisville

ACC

5

Iowa

Big Ten

5

Texas Tech

Big 12

5

Wisconsin

Big Ten

6

Villanova

Big East

6

Maryland

Big Ten

6

Florida St.

ACC

6

Kansas St.

Big 12

7

Cincinnati

American Athletic

7

Buffalo

Mid-American

7

Auburn

SEC

7

Mississippi St.

SEC

8

Wofford

Southern

8

Washington

Pac-12

8

Baylor

Big 12

8

Ole Miss

SEC

9

TCU

Big 12

9

Texas

Big 12

9

North Carolina St.

ACC

9

Utah St.

Mountain West

10

St. John’s 

Big East

10

Syracuse

ACC

10

Minnesota

Big Ten

10

Central Florida

American Athletic

11

Temple

American Athletic

11

Oklahoma

Big 12

11

Clemson

ACC

11

Ohio St.

Big Ten

11

Seton Hall

Big East

12

Alabama

SEC

12

Butler

Big East

12

Hofstra

Colonial

12

Lipscomb

Atlantic Sun

12

Virginia Commonwealth

Atlantic 10

13

New Mexico St.

WAC

13

Belmont

Ohio Valley

13

Vermont

America East

13

Yale

Ivy League

14

Old Dominion

CUSA

14

South Dakota St.

Summit

14

UC Irvine

Big West

14

Northern Kentucky

Horizon

15

Texas St.

Sun Belt

15

Montana

Big Sky

15

Missouri St.

Missouri Valley

15

Radford

Big South

16

Bucknell

Patriot

16

Sam Houston St.

Southland

16

Rider

Metro Atlantic

16

Texas Southern

SWAC

16

St. Francis (PA)

Northeast

16

Norfolk St.

MEAC

 

First Four OUT

Indiana

Florida

Arizona St.

Furman

 

Next Four Out

Nebraska

Creighton

Davidson

Murray St.

 

Last Four IN

Ohio St.

Seton Hall

Alabama

Butler

 

Last Four BYES

Central Florida

Temple

Oklahoma

Clemson

 

First Four

For the first time this year, we have staggered the seed lines for the First Four games involving the final four at-large bids.  We have one game pitting 11-seeds and another game pitting 12-seeds.  This could change before Selection Sunday.

For your information, the First Four games have mostly  been with 11-seeds, but there have been 12-seeds, and even 13-seeds and 14-seeds earlier in this decade.

Because of the rule that no teams from the same conference can face off in the First Four games, we had to move two teams in the seed line to prevent a conference matchup in Dayton.

11-Seed Line: Ohio State vs. Seton Hall

12-Seed Line: Alabama vs. Butler

16-Seed Line: Rider vs. Norfolk St.

16-Seed Line: Texas Southern vs. Fairleigh Dickinson

 

There are four teams that if they lose in their conference tournament, they will still be an at-large entry, and their conference will improve from one to two bids.

Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference

Washington in the Pac-12 Conference

Wofford in the Southern Conference

Buffalo in the Mid-American Conference

 

There are four other Mid-Major teams that need to be in the discussion by the Selection Committee (in addition to the Mid-Majors already on our Bubble above).

Murray State (or Belmont) in the Ohio Valley Conference

Liberty (or Lipscomb) in the Atlantic Sun Conference

Saint Mary’s in the West Coast Conference

Toledo in the Mid-American Conference

 

 

 

February 15, 2019

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For Friday, February 15, 2019

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 1:28 pm

February 15, 2019

Seed

SCHOOL

Conf.

1

Duke

ACC

1

Virginia

ACC

1

Tennessee

SEC

1

Gonzaga

WCC

2

Kentucky

SEC

2

Michigan St.

Big Ten

2

Michigan

Big Ten

2

North Carolina

ACC

3

Houston

AAC

3

Texas Tech

Big 12

3

Purdue

Big Ten

3

Nevada

MWC

4

Kansas

Big 12

4

LSU

SEC

4

Marquette

Big East

4

Louisville

ACC

5

Iowa St.

Big 12

5

Wisconsin

Big Ten

5

Villanova

Big East

5

Virginia Tech

ACC

6

Maryland

Big Ten

6

Cincinnati

AAC

6

Buffalo

MAC

6

Iowa

Big Ten

7

Florida St.

ACC

7

Kansas St.

Big 12

7

Mississippi St.

SEC

7

Auburn

SEC

8

Washington

Pac-12

8

Ole Miss

SEC

8

Baylor

Big 12

8

TCU

Big 12

9

Texas

Big 12

9

North Carolina St.

ACC

9

Utah St.

MWC

9

Central Florida

AAC

10

Florida

SEC

10

Oklahoma

Big 12

10

Clemson

ACC

10

Alabama

SEC

11

St. John’s

Big East

11

Ohio St.

Big Ten

11

Syracuse

ACC

11

Butler

Big East

11

Seton Hall

Big East

11

Minnesota

Big Ten

12

Wofford

SoCon

12

Lipscomb

ASUN

12

VCU

Atlantic 10

12

Hofstra

CAA

13

New Mexico St.

WAC

13

Yale

Ivy League

13

Belmont

OVC

13

Vermont

America East

14

Old Dominion

C-USA

14

South Dakota St.

Summit League

14

Northern Kentucky

Horizon

14

UC Irvine

Big West

15

Texas St.

Sun Belt

15

Montana

Big Sky

15

Loyola (Chi)

MVC

15

Radford

Big South

16

Bucknell

Patriot

16

Abilene Christian

Southland

16

Quinnipiac

MAAC

16

Texas Southern

SWAC

16

St. Francis (PA)

NEC

16

Norfolk St.

MEAC

Last 4 Byes

Clemson

Alabama

St. John’s (NY)

Ohio St.

Last 4 In

Syracuse

Butler

Seton Hall

Minnesota

First 4 Out

Indiana

Temple

Seton Hall

UNC Greensboro

Next 4 Out

Florida

Nebraska

Creighton

Davidson

First Four Pairings

Syracuse vs. Seton Hall

Butler vs. Minnesota

Quinnipiac vs. Norfolk St.

Texas Southern vs. St. Francis (PA)

Beginning today, we are using all the same criteria being used by the Selection Committee to pick the bracket the way we believe the Committee will select.  Based on the Committee’s 16-team preview last weekend, we adjusted our bracket to try to mimic their actions.  The major adjustment was increasing the clout of strength of schedules.  Thus, we greatly downgraded all the Mid-Major and Low-Major contenders.

 

 

 

 

 

 

February 13, 2019

Bubbles Are Boiling

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:16 pm

Five Sundays from today, the NCAA Selection Committee will choose and seed the 68-team field for the NCAA Tournament.  At the present time, the Bubble list has begun to emerge with greater clarity.  There are about three dozen teams still competing for at-large bids, and more than half will not get into the Dance.

Some of the teams under consideration will eventually receive automatic bids when they win their conference tournaments.  On the other hand, there could be a few major upsets in the power conference tournaments forcing a bubble to pierce for one of these teams.

Let’s look at the principle boiling bubbles today.  We will let you decide if their resumes warrant bids or warrant bans to the NIT.

Team

Net

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Alabama

44

2-6

6-1

4-2

3-0

Arizona State

72

3-1

4-3

3-1

6-2

Baylor

32

3-5

7-1

1-0

5-2

Belmont

60

3-1

2-1

2-2

11-0

Butler

53

1-7

6-3

4-1

3-0

Central Florida

45

0-2

4-2

7-0

6-1

Clemson

39

2-6

2-2

5-0

6-0

Creighton

57

2-9

3-2

4-0

3-0

Davidson

68

0-2

3-1

6-3

8-0

Florida

42

1-9

3-1

3-1

5-0

Hofstra

51

0-2

0-1

4-1

16-0

Indiana

49

4-8

2-3

1-0

6-0

Lipscomb

30

2-3

2-1

2-0

12-0

Minnesota

58

3-6

4-2

4-0

5-0

New Mexico St.

59

0-1

2-1

8-2

9-0

North Carolina St

37

1-6

5-0

2-1

9-0

Ohio St.

36

4-5

3-2

4-0

5-0

Oklahoma

41

3-8

5-2

7-0

0-0

Ole Miss

35

3-7

3-0

4-0

6-0

Saint Mary’s

50

1-5

1-2

6-3

7-0

San Francisco

52

0-4

1-1

5-1

11-0

Seton Hall

69

2-6

7-1

2-2

3-0

St. John’s

48

4-4

4-1

2-2

8-0

TCU

33

1-7

5-0

7-0

4-0

Temple

55

1-5

5-1

4-1

7-0

Texas

34

4-6

4-4

3-1

3-0

Toledo

54

0-1

2-0

8-3

9-0

UNC Greensboro

46

1-3

1-0

5-0

13-0

Utah State

38

1-2

2-2

4-2

10-0

VCU

43

1-3

2-2

7-1

7-0

Wofford

28

2-4

3-0

4-0

9-0

Yale

62

0-3

1-0

5-1

8-0

 

Team

EFF.

SOS

Rd/Neut

Con

Ovr

Alabama

48

17

6-7

6-5

15-9

Arizona State

63

66

5-4

7-4

16-7

Baylor

34

50

5-4

7-4

16-8

Belmont

64

160

8-3

10-2

19-4

Butler

53

25

4-8

5-7

14-11

Central Florida

50

89

6-3

7-3

17-5

Clemson

31

36

4-6

5-5

15-8

Creighton

49

12

5-6

4-7

13-11

Davidson

75

106

7-6

9-2

18-6

Florida

38

29

5-7

4-6

12-11

Hofstra

67

225

7-4

11-1

21-4

Indiana

45

37

3-7

4-9

13-11

Lipscomb

33

204

9-3

11-0

20-4

Minnesota

56

51

5-6

6-7

16-8

New Mexico St.

54

134

9-3

9-1

20-4

North Carolina St

40

194

5-4

5-6

17-7

Ohio St.

32

49

6-3

6-6

16-7

Oklahoma

42

7

7-6

3-9

15-10

Ole Miss

39

63

7-4

6-4

16-7

Saint Mary’s

44

47

3-8

6-4

15-10

San Francisco

47

121

5-5

6-4

18-6

Seton Hall

66

40

6-6

5-6

14-9

St. John’s

52

57

7-4

6-6

18-7

TCU

37

20

6-5

5-6

17-7

Temple

76

56

8-5

7-4

17-7

Texas

28

3

4-6

6-6

14-11

Toledo

51

126

9-3

8-3

20-4

UNC Greensboro

80

188

10-2

11-1

22-3

Utah State

43

115

8-5

8-3

18-6

VCU

46

54

6-5

8-2

17-6

Wofford

30

133

8-3

13-0

21-4

Yale

72

123

7-4

5-1

15-4

 

Here’s an explanation of each column

Net: This is their official NCAA NET rating, the new and improved formula that supersedes all other, like the RPI.

Q1-Q4: These are the won-loss records for each quadrant.  The Quadrants are broken up into these groups.

Quadrant #

Home

Neutral

Road

Quadrant 1

1-30

1-50

1-75

Quadrant 2

31-75

51-100

76-135

Quadrant 3

76-160

101-200

136-240

Quadrant 4

161-353

201-353

241-353

If you play the #101 team at home, this is a Quadrant 3 opponent.  If you play the #101 team on their floor, this is a Quadrant 2 opponent.  If you host the #50 team, it counts as Quadrant 2, but if you play that team on a neutral floor or on the road, it is a Quadrant 1 game.

EFF.: This is the ranking in total efficiency, which is offensive efficiency combined with defensive efficiency and adjusted for strength of schedule.

SOS: This is the ranking of strengths of schedule for each team.  Keep in mind that the difference between #1 and #50 may be minimal, while the difference between #51 and #100 may be considerably more.

Rd/Neut: This is the combined road and neutral court won-loss records

Con and Ovr: Although not used by the Committee, this is the conference and overall won-loss records for each team for you to look at and decide for yourself if a certain team belongs in the Dance.  We are not 100% convinced that committee members don’t subconsciously let this stat creep into their decision-making process.  If a team finishes four games under .500 in their league while another finishes four game over .500, that four game swing is going to count for something, even if it isn’t supposed to count.

Trying To Think Like A Committee Member

Let’s look at each school on this list.

Alabama

With wins over Kentucky and Mississippi State, the Committee might overlook losses to Northeastern and Georgia State.  Two of the Tide’s non-conference losses are to probable NCAA Tournament teams Central Florida and Baylor.  The Tide sits at 6-5 in the SEC and projects to a 10-8 or 11-7 final mark.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation with possibility of starting in Dayton.

Arizona St.

The Pac-12 surely cannot be limited to just one bid, can it?  The Committee is not supposed to look at this metric, but this is no different than when the judge tells the jury to disregard a remark from a sustained objection in a court room.  Of course, it is remembered.

Arizona State beat Kansas and Mississippi State.  This past weekend, they handed Washington their first Pac-12 loss.  The Sun Devils lost a close game to Nevada.  They also lost at home to Princeton and recently were blown out at home by Pac-12 cellar dweller Washington State by 21 points.  They also lost at SEC last place Vanderbilt by 16, and they barely beat SEC #13 Georgia.

Does the Kansas win and close loss to Nevada do enough for the Sun Devils?  Their NET rating is 72, and their strength of schedule is 66.  In their favor, Arizona State has a winning record away from Tempe.

Verdict: Sorry, nothing in the inbox but some ads for hotels near Madison Square Garden in late March that you probably won’t need.

Baylor

The Bears lost early in the season to some really weak teams in Texas Southern and Stephen F. Austin, but the TSU loss may turn out to be to a future NCAA Tournament team.  At 7-4 in the Big 12 with wins over Texas Tech, Iowa State, and TCU, plus a sweep of Oklahoma, Baylor is on the inside as of now.  We project Baylor to finish 10-8 in the league, and with this league’s strength, Coach Scott Drew can sleep peacefully when his team is eventually ousted in the Big 12 Tournament.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation and does not have to make travel arrangements to Dayton.

 

Belmont

Every year, Coach Rick Byrd has his Bruins among consideration for an NCAA Tournament bid, and this year is no different.  Belmont won at UCLA and Murray State, and they swept rival Lipscomb, who is in the top 30 and also in discussion for a potential at-large bid.  Among their losses is to Purdue in West Lafayette, but also among the losses are two to Jacksonville State.

We project Belmont to win out in the regular season to enter the OVC Tournament at 16-2 in the conference and 24-4 overall.  The Bruins will be the mild favorite to win the automatic bid, but Murray State, Austin Peay, and Jacksonville State will have shots as well.  If Belmont lost to Murray in the Championship Game and finished 26-5, the Bruins would have to be part of the at-large discussion.

Verdict: The Bruins need to win the automatic bid and then become a very game 12-seed.  Too many Bubble teams have to fold for Belmont to rise up and secure an at-large bid.  We believe as an automatic bid-winner and #12 seed, the Bruins are equipped with the talent and coaching to win their first tournament game after some near misses.

 

Butler

This Bulldogs team is not in the class with some of their recent NCAA Tournament teams.  A lone Quadrant 1 win came in a neutral contest with Florida, a team which they played a second time a month later and lost by close to 40 points.

The next most impressive victory is a home win over Ole Miss.  Butler’s NET rating of 53 is on the in-out line, but in their favor is a #25 strength of schedule

Verdict: We hear Dayton is lovely in March.  Even if it snows several inches, you will be very happy you got to visit Southwestern Ohio.  It’s an easy 2 hour drive.

 

Central Florida

The Golden Knights beat Alabama and Temple, and they lost to Houston.  UCF should get to 10 wins in the American Athletic Conference, but the Knights need to pull off one big win to solidify their at-large standing against their peers.  UCF will get that chance with games remaining with Cincinnati and Houston.  A sweep of South Florida might also be impressive enough to push them over the top.

Verdict: Hanging on to a First Four bid for now

 

Clemson

The Tigers don’t have many great wins on their schedule.  Their recent upset of Virginia Tech and an earlier win over Lipscomb are the only Quadrant 1 victories.  In their favor, they are 11-0 against Q3 and Q4 combined, so their losses have been to good or great teams.

We project CU to go 8-10 in ACC play, which in most years gets an ACC team into the field, whether it is deserved or not.  Clemson might need one more upset to complete their resume-building.  They certainly need to hold serve against the teams beneath them in the league.  A win tonight at Miami would be mighty.  We think that a win at home over Florida State, North Carolina, or Syracuse would give them all the juice they need.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation and probably not one to Dayton

 

Creighton

The Big East is top heavy with two superior teams and a half dozen good but not great teams.  At 4-7 in league play, the Blue Jays have a lot of work left to do to get onto the upper half of the Bubble.

The one thing keeping Creighton in the discussion currently is the fact that they have played 12 Quadrant 1 games so far and have a top 15 strength of schedule.  However, they are only 2-10 in those games.

Creighton’s next four games are must-win games.  The Blue Jays have to take care of Xavier tonight in Cincinnati and then beat Seton Hall, DePaul, and Georgetown to improve to 8-7 when they travel to Marquette in March.  A 6-1 finish from here would put CU at 10-8 in the league and 19-12 overall, where an opening round win in the Big East Tournament would give the Blue Jays a strong chance to get in.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation only if they meet the parameters set above.  As of today, we’d say their invitation would be to host a game in the NIT.

 

Davidson

Bob McKillop is one of the most underrated coaches in college basketball.  While Davidson has an exceptional history of greatness thanks to what legendary coach Lefty Driesell did 50 years ago, those were different times.  Driesell recruited four or five players as good as Stephen Curry, and he brought Davidson to the top five of the rankings in 1964, 1965, 1968, and 1969.  McKillop inherited a mess when he took over this program that was coming off a 24-loss season plus the transfer of their one good player.  He’s now led the Wildcats for 30 seasons!

Of course, none of this means anything to the Selection Committee.  Davidson’s resume is iffy at this point, and without an automatic bid, it looks like a slim possibility.  Their only quality win to date is a home game victory over conference co-contender Virginia Commonwealth.  This is their only win against a top 100 team, and it came at home.  Unless they face VCU in the Conference Tournament, they will face just one other top 100 team the rest of the way.  The stars just don’t align for the Wildcats this year.

Verdict: They better win the automatic bid or plan on playing in the NIT, CBI, or CIT

 

Florida

Coach Michael White is underachieving in Gainesville, and, following in the footsteps of Billy Donovan, could find his seat heating up quickly if the Gators miss out on this year’s NCAA Tournament.

Florida’s schedule is the only reason why at 4-6 in the SEC and 12-11 overall that they are still in consideration as an at-large team.  The Gators are looking at 8-10 in the league and 16-15 overall.  With that record, they will have to win at least three SEC Tournament games to even be in the final discussion.

Verdict: One of the biggest disappointments of the season does not receive an NCAA bid and may not receive an NIT bid either

 

Hofstra

Make no bones about it, Hofstra is not a real at-large candidate.  However, we wanted to list the Pride here to show you their resume.  At 21-4, the Pride has no Q1 or Q2 wins.  They are 16-0 against Q4, and their strength of schedule ranks 225.  We wanted to show them to you so you can compare them with the other Mid-major teams on this list.  We could have also shown you UC-Irvine, a team in a similar boat with Hofstra, while Wofford, UNC Greensboro, Belmont, and Lipscomb have some tiny at-large hopes.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation only if it is automatic

 

Indiana

This was supposed to be a much better year in Hoosierland, and like his brother Sean, Archie Miller has come under fire.  IU was supposed to contend with the Michigan schools and Purdue for the Big Ten title.  Instead, the Hoosiers find themselves mired in a tenth place tie in the Big Ten at 4-9/13-11.

Indiana has the bare minimum criteria to squeak in as a fortunate bubble team.  Their NET rating is just under 50, and most power league teams in the top 50 get into the field.  Their strength of schedule is 37, and this is okay for any major conference team on the bubble.  Their efficiency rating is also okay at 45, not great but adequate enough for a Big Ten team.

With 12 Quadrant 1 games and wins in four of those contests, the Hoosiers have proven they can compete at the top of the game.  Of their seven remaining games, five are against tough opponents, and Indiana needs to win two of those five games and four overall to enter the Big Ten Tournament not needing to win three games to feel comfortable about getting an at-large bid.

Verdict: At the present time, we have them as the #68 team in the field, and they would be slotted to go to Dayton, where they might have to play Butler. What a rivalry game played close enough for the fans to make the commute by car!

 

Lipscomb

The Atlantic Sun Conference is mid-major at best and borders on low-major status, but Florida Gulf Coast proved this league has the ability to send teams to the Sweet 16.

Lipscomb made its first NCAA Tournament appearance last year and scared North Carolina for a half.  This Bisons team is better than last year, and the former NAIA superpower might be talented enough to replicate what FGCU did earlier in the decade.

Lipscomb has played five Q1 games, all on the road and won twice, once against TCU.  They have no bad losses, going 14-0 against Q3 & Q4.  Among their losses is a four-pointer at Louisville.

If Lipscomb beats Liberty tonight in Nashville to complete the season sweep, they will almost assuredly win out to finish 16-0/25-4 before hosting all their conference tournament games.  It would take a lot to not be the automatic qualifier, but in the event they lost to Liberty in the finals, they would be 27-5 with a lot of positives on their resume.

Verdict: The Bisons are a very likely automatic qualifier, but if they were 27-5, it would take a lot of statistics-bending to exclude them from the at-large pool.  However, we have faith that the Selection Committee would find ways to ship Lipscomb to the NIT in favor of the ninth place team in the ACC or 10th place team in the Big Ten or even the fifth best Big East team, or even TCU who lost at home to this Lipscomb team.

 

Minnesota

Richard Pitino, Saul Phillips, Murray Bartow, and Bryce Drew know what it is like to have fathers that enjoyed long, successful careers in college basketball.  They also know what it is like to have their team’s fanatics wishing that those great coaches had created daughters rather than sons.  Pitino is on very thin ice in Minneapolis, and the Gophers must make the Big Dance if Pitino is to stay employed in the Cities in 2020.

The Gophers are in 8th place in the Big Ten with a 16-8 record overall.  This is just enough to meet the minimum for a Big Ten team.  Their NET rating is 59, which is right on the line for average lowest rating that gets in.  Three Quad 1 wins and a 5-6 record away from home gives the Gophers a decent shot at making the field.

Minnesota’s closing schedule could cinch their bid or kill their chances.  Their more winnable games are on the road, and the tougher opponents must come to Minneapolis.  Tonight’s game at Nebraska could be a bell-weather contest.  A loss might open the door for another bubble team to step up and pass the Gophers.

Verdict: For now, we believe the Selection Committee would send the Gophers an Invitation and even allow them to avoid the First Four.  However, a 3-4 finish to give UM a 9-11 mark in the league and 19-12 overall might put Minny on the wrong side of the Bubble if they lost their first Big Ten Tournament game.  Pitino loses his job if UM misses the Dance.

 

New Mexico St.

New Mexico State is not getting an at-large bid, even if the Aggies win out until the WAC Championship Game and then lose to Grand Canyon or Cal St. Bakersfield by one point in overtime.

Let’s look at their resume.  They lost at Kansas by three points, and that was their only Q1 game.  Even had they beaten Kansas by three, their resume is too thin with just one Q1 game.

NMSU is just one spot behind Minnesota in the NET Ratings, and the Aggies are 9-3 away from Las Cruces.  However, their strength of schedule rates at number 134, and we learned from the top-16 seed reveal last week just how much this year’s Committee valued strength of schedule.

Verdict: No At-large chance, but we believe this team could be 30-4 when they win the WAC’s automatic bid.  Coach Chris Jans has overcome a lot of adversity to resurrect his career.  NMSU will be a dangerous 12 or 13 seed.

 

North Carolina St.

Kevin Keatts is one of our favorite basketball coaches.  We are in high regard of his ability to evaluate talent and alter his schemes to best exploit opponent weaknesses and utilize his talent.  Even that embarrassing oops loss to Virginia Tech does not alter our opinion.  Keatts is a Final Four coach of the future, be it here or some place else.

This Wolf Pack team is not going to advance very far in the NCAA Tournament, but they will almost definitely receive a bid based on their results so far.

When an ACC team has a top 40 NET rating, they are going dancing.  NCSU is presently #39.  The Wolf Pack currently has a winning record away from Raleigh.

All is not peachy though with their resume.  Their Strength of Schedule is an unheard of for an ACC team #194, because they played six of the bottom 34 teams in Division 1, including the two weakest of all.  State only has one Q1 win all year, a home victory over Auburn which looks less impressive now than it did then.

The Pack can easily finish the regular season on a 5-2 sprint to a 10-8 regular season conference record, which gets an ACC team an at-large bid better than 95% of the time.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation as one of the last teams in that do not play in the First Four

 

Ohio St.

The Buckeyes really should not be in this discussion.  The only reason why we include them here is that they still need to avoid a total collapse.  At 6-6/16-7, if OSU goes 3-5 down the stretch, they will get into the field.

Road wins over Cincinnati, Indiana, and Creighton are impressive enough already, but we see the Buckeyes finishing no worse than 4-4 and possibly 5-3 to make their selection quite easy.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation

 

Oklahoma

Can a team that is 3-9 in their conference really be in the hunt for an at-large bid?  Oklahoma certainly hopes so, and thanks to the Big 12’s overall concentration of power, the Sooners do have a legitimate chance to get into the Field of 68 with a conference mark no better than 7-11.

In OU’s favor is a schedule that faced no Q4 teams and just seven Q3 teams.  Oklahoma went 7-0 in those games.  Their overall strength of schedule is #7, which means that a winning overall record is going to be enough to give them a chance.

Oklahoma has six games remaining prior to the league tourney, and if they go 3-3 with one of those wins coming against Kansas, and then they win their first Big 12 Tournament game, the Sooners will be in good enough shape to expect great things on March 17.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation if they go 3-3 plus one Big 12 Tournament win

 

Ole Miss

Ole Miss is 16-7, and all seven of their losses came to Q1 teams!  They have three Q1 wins, including one on the road against Mississippi State.

A 35 NET rating and 39 Efficiency rating makes their resume complete.  At this point, Ole Miss is competing for a 7 or 8 seed and not needing to worry about missing out on the Dance, unless they totally collapse.  Coach Kermit Davis has done an incredible job in his first year in Oxford.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation

 

Saint Mary’s

The Gaels have received an at-large bid in the past, but they also beat Gonzaga in the past.  This year, it appears out of reach, and a 11-5/22-12 final record (the best possible without beating Gonzaga, is most likely to fall short of the minimum needed criteria.

Verdict: SMC is going to have to beat Gonzaga to have any chance, and most likely, that win will have to come in the finals of the WCC Tournament, which would then give the Gaels the automatic bid and Gonzaga an at-large bid at the expense of another team on this list.

 

San Francisco

At one time earlier this year, USF looked like a potential at-large team.  A 13-point loss at home to Gonzaga followed by losses at Saint Mary’s and San Diego, basically necessitated winning at Gonzaga to have a real chance.  The Zags ran the Dons off the floor, ending USF’s at-large possibilities.

Verdict: No bid unless USF pulls off the upset and wins the West Coast Tournament Championship.  We cannot see USF beating Gonzaga, but if the Dons earn the #2 or #3 seed in the conference tournament, while BYU earns the #4 seed, then the Dons could hope that the Cougars upset Gonzaga, giving them a chance to knock off BYU for the automatic bid.

 

Seton Hall

Seton Hall is in a similar boat to Butler and Creighton in the up and down Big East race.  The Pirates have some pluses and some minuses in their quest to get a bid.

On the plus side are wins over Kentucky and Maryland, but countering those two great Q1 victories are losses at home to St. Louis and DePaul.  Three of their Q1 losses were by five points or less, and they have only played seven games against Q3 & Q4 teams.

With a 69 NET Rating, the Pirates need to improve their standing in the last five weeks.  The schedule is quite tough with the top two Big East teams (Villanova and Marquette) still on the schedule, and the Hall has road games with Creighton, St. John’s, and Georgetown.  We expect SHU to enter the Big East Tournament at 7-11/16-14, and the Big East is not strong enough for a team with fewer than 10 conference wins or nine with a couple of conference tournament wins to get in.

Verdict: Looks like they will be disappointed on Selection Sunday without an upset of Marquette or Villanova and a 9-9 Big East record

 

St. John’s

St. John’s is only a half-game in front of Seton Hall, but their resume might as well be 20 games ahead.  The Red Storm have played a much tougher schedule this year, and schedule strength appears to be very important, just behind NET Ratings, with the Committee.  Sweeps of Marquette and Creighton with their worst loss coming against DePaul gives SJU a strong shot at making the field.  Add a 7-4 record away from home, and the Red Storm would have to collapse to miss out this year.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation, probably an 8 or 9 seed

 

TCU

Like Ole Miss, all of TCU’s losses have come to Quadrant 1 teams.  They are 16-0 against all others.  A 33 NET rating and 20 Strength of Schedule Rating puts the Horned Frogs well up into the good graces of the Selection Committee.

TCU should be no worse than 9-9 in the Big 12, and when a league is as strong up and down as this one, the 9-9 team always gets into the field.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation

 

Temple

When a top 10 team has just one loss all year, the team that beat them gets added oomph in their resume.  Temple gave Houston their only loss so far this year.  The Owls lost their other five Q1 games to date.

Temple’s NET Rating is 55, which puts them on the Bubble for sure.  Their Strength of Schedule is 56, which is at the bottom of the allowed SOS for an at-large team.  An 8-5 record away from home (7-4 away from the City of Brotherly Love) makes their criteria smack dab in the hunt as one of the final teams in our highest teams out.

Temple can go 5-2 the rest of the regular season to finish at 12-6 in the league.  With a win in the AAC Tournament, that would give the Owls at least 23 wins, and that would leave them exactly where they are now–in the middle of the discussion between teams number 67 and 70.  A win at South Florida this weekend would really help.

 

Texas

The Longhorns have the worst record of teams that appear to be in good shape with the Selection Committee.  At 6-6/14-11, UT still has work to do just to guarantee a plus .500 record.  They have played the third toughest schedule in the nation, and they own wins over North Carolina, Purdue, Kansas, Kansas State, and Baylor.

Add a 34 NET Rating and 28 Efficiency Rating, and Texas only needs to get enough wins down the stretch to guarantee an at-large bid.  A 9-9 Big 12 record does the trick.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation

 

Toledo

The PiRate Ratings are big fans of the Mid-Major conferences that have been around for decades, and the MAC is one of those leagues.  Toledo was really good back in the late 1960’s when Steve Mix played for the Rockets prior to starting in the NBA.  Success has been limited for Toledo on the hardwoods since then.

This Toledo team has no chance of securing an at-large bid, and with a 30-point loss to Buffalo, it is hard to see them getting revenge in the championship game of the MAC Tournament.  Still, we include them in this write-up, because the MAC Tournament is always competitive, and the top-seeded team loses in it more than the average conference.

Toledo is one of three or four teams that could upset Buffalo, although this year’s Buffalo team has all the tools to sweep the regular season and conference tournament.  However, if Buffalo loses, then obviously another team must win the automatic bid, while Buffalo bursts a Bubble for another team as a certain at-large team.

A 9-3 record away from home makes this a dangerous team in Cleveland.  Toledo will waltz into Cleveland as the number one seed from the West Division, so Buffalo will have to beat two others before the Rockets will have to glare at the Bulls in a possible title game.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation only bid winning automatic bid, but Buffalo still gets in if they lose the MAC Tournament

 

UNC Greensboro

This is a team no favorite from a power conference will want to see in a potential Round of 64 NCAA Tournament game.  UNCG is a tough matchup, and the Spartans have a unique style that is hard to prepare for on a couple day’s notice.

With a 46 NET Rating, UNCG is worthy of an at-large bid if they were to win out all the way to the Socon Championship Game and lose a close one to Wofford.  The Spartans are 10-2 away from Greensboro, but their issue is a schedule that is rated 188 (which is still ahead of North Carolina State).

If UNCG is to earn enough respect to be in the at-large pool, the Spartans must win their two big games this week.  They play at Furman tonight, and then meet Wofford in Spartanburg Saturday.  If UNCG wins out but loses in the SoCon Championship Game, they will be 30-4 and in the mix for one of the last four bids.

 

Utah St.

With a 38 NET Rating and 43 Efficiency Rating, Utah State should be in the almost safe range for an at-large bid, but the Aggies are still on the outside looking in thanks to a strength of schedule rated 115.  Utah State has seven regular season games left, and if they win out, they will enter the MWC Tournament at 15-3/25-6.  Most importantly, if they win out, it will mean the Aggies beat Nevada.  The boys from Reno come to Logan on March 2.  USU almost has to win that game to have any serious at-large chances, but they also have a chance to win the automatic bid in the tough Mountain West.  Nevada won the MWC last year and failed to make the tournament title game as the number one seed, so history could repeat.

Verdict: We believe the Aggies deserve an at-large bid as of today, and for now we will give the Selection Committee the benefit of the doubt in realizing that they deserve to be in

 

Virginia Commonwealth

At the current time, we actually have VCU as the likely automatic bid winner from the Atlantic 10, ahead of Davidson, but we included the Rams here to show you how close they are to qualifying as an at-large team.

VCU has a 43 NET Rating, 54 Strength of Schedule, and 46 Efficiency Rating.  This is already better than some of the other teams thought to be among the last four in and first four out.  They have a 6-5 record away from home and won at Texas.  They suffered narrow losses to Virginia and St. John’s.

We project VCU to finish 15-3 in the A-10 and 24-7 overall in the regular season.  If they lose in the conference tournament and finish 26-8, the Rams will be in the mix for an at-large bid.

Verdict: We believe VCU has the best chance of winning the A-10 Tournament and the automatic bid, but if they lose in the Championship Game, the Rams still have a chance depending on how many Power Conferences have major upsets or if teams like Buffalo and Nevada lose in their conference tournaments

Wofford

If we told you that an anonymous team was ranked 28 in the NET Ratings with the number 30 Efficiency Rating, and with a 20-point road win at the number four team in the SEC, and with four losses all year to North Carolina, Kansas, Mississippi State, and Oklahoma, you might reply that Auburn or Texas Tech will obviously make the NCAA Tournament, guessing from the information given that one of these two teams must be that anonymous team.

Mention Wofford to 99% of the general college basketball fandom public, and you are very likely to hear such fanatic tell you that they will be another one of those first round 25-point losers to some Big Ten team.

Wofford and UNC Greensboro both probably belong in the NCAA Tourmament.  Unfortunately, one of these two are likely to be team number 69, 70, 71, or 72.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation if they earn the automatic bid

 

Yale

There has never been an at-large Ivy League team, and there isn’t going to be one this year, even if Yale is probably better than a couple of teams seriously on the Bubble.

The Bulldogs’ best win is a neutral court victory over Miami of Florida.  Their resume won’t get them an at-large bid.  We project the Bulldogs to go 12-2 in the Ivy League to earn the top seed in the four-team tournament.  We also project Yale to win the Tournament to finish 24-5, where they will earn no better than a 13 seed and possible a 14 seed.  At 13, there are multiple potential 4 seeds that could be uspet by this Yale team.

 

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