The Pi-Rate Ratings

February 18, 2019

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For Monday, February 18, 2019

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:11 pm

February 18, 2019

Seed

School

Conf.

1

Gonzaga

West Coast

1

Duke

ACC

1

Virginia

ACC

1

Tennessee

SEC

2

Kentucky

SEC

2

Michigan St.

Big Ten

2

Michigan

Big Ten

2

North Carolina

ACC

3

Purdue

Big Ten

3

Houston

American Athletic

3

Kansas

Big 12

3

Nevada

Mountain West

4

LSU

SEC

4

Marquette

Big East

4

Iowa St.

Big 12

4

Virginia Tech

ACC

5

Louisville

ACC

5

Iowa

Big Ten

5

Texas Tech

Big 12

5

Wisconsin

Big Ten

6

Villanova

Big East

6

Maryland

Big Ten

6

Florida St.

ACC

6

Kansas St.

Big 12

7

Cincinnati

American Athletic

7

Buffalo

Mid-American

7

Auburn

SEC

7

Mississippi St.

SEC

8

Wofford

Southern

8

Washington

Pac-12

8

Baylor

Big 12

8

Ole Miss

SEC

9

TCU

Big 12

9

Texas

Big 12

9

North Carolina St.

ACC

9

Utah St.

Mountain West

10

St. John’s 

Big East

10

Syracuse

ACC

10

Minnesota

Big Ten

10

Central Florida

American Athletic

11

Temple

American Athletic

11

Oklahoma

Big 12

11

Clemson

ACC

11

Ohio St.

Big Ten

11

Seton Hall

Big East

12

Alabama

SEC

12

Butler

Big East

12

Hofstra

Colonial

12

Lipscomb

Atlantic Sun

12

Virginia Commonwealth

Atlantic 10

13

New Mexico St.

WAC

13

Belmont

Ohio Valley

13

Vermont

America East

13

Yale

Ivy League

14

Old Dominion

CUSA

14

South Dakota St.

Summit

14

UC Irvine

Big West

14

Northern Kentucky

Horizon

15

Texas St.

Sun Belt

15

Montana

Big Sky

15

Missouri St.

Missouri Valley

15

Radford

Big South

16

Bucknell

Patriot

16

Sam Houston St.

Southland

16

Rider

Metro Atlantic

16

Texas Southern

SWAC

16

St. Francis (PA)

Northeast

16

Norfolk St.

MEAC

 

First Four OUT

Indiana

Florida

Arizona St.

Furman

 

Next Four Out

Nebraska

Creighton

Davidson

Murray St.

 

Last Four IN

Ohio St.

Seton Hall

Alabama

Butler

 

Last Four BYES

Central Florida

Temple

Oklahoma

Clemson

 

First Four

For the first time this year, we have staggered the seed lines for the First Four games involving the final four at-large bids.  We have one game pitting 11-seeds and another game pitting 12-seeds.  This could change before Selection Sunday.

For your information, the First Four games have mostly  been with 11-seeds, but there have been 12-seeds, and even 13-seeds and 14-seeds earlier in this decade.

Because of the rule that no teams from the same conference can face off in the First Four games, we had to move two teams in the seed line to prevent a conference matchup in Dayton.

11-Seed Line: Ohio State vs. Seton Hall

12-Seed Line: Alabama vs. Butler

16-Seed Line: Rider vs. Norfolk St.

16-Seed Line: Texas Southern vs. Fairleigh Dickinson

 

There are four teams that if they lose in their conference tournament, they will still be an at-large entry, and their conference will improve from one to two bids.

Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference

Washington in the Pac-12 Conference

Wofford in the Southern Conference

Buffalo in the Mid-American Conference

 

There are four other Mid-Major teams that need to be in the discussion by the Selection Committee (in addition to the Mid-Majors already on our Bubble above).

Murray State (or Belmont) in the Ohio Valley Conference

Liberty (or Lipscomb) in the Atlantic Sun Conference

Saint Mary’s in the West Coast Conference

Toledo in the Mid-American Conference

 

 

 

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February 15, 2019

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For Friday, February 15, 2019

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 1:28 pm

February 15, 2019

Seed

SCHOOL

Conf.

1

Duke

ACC

1

Virginia

ACC

1

Tennessee

SEC

1

Gonzaga

WCC

2

Kentucky

SEC

2

Michigan St.

Big Ten

2

Michigan

Big Ten

2

North Carolina

ACC

3

Houston

AAC

3

Texas Tech

Big 12

3

Purdue

Big Ten

3

Nevada

MWC

4

Kansas

Big 12

4

LSU

SEC

4

Marquette

Big East

4

Louisville

ACC

5

Iowa St.

Big 12

5

Wisconsin

Big Ten

5

Villanova

Big East

5

Virginia Tech

ACC

6

Maryland

Big Ten

6

Cincinnati

AAC

6

Buffalo

MAC

6

Iowa

Big Ten

7

Florida St.

ACC

7

Kansas St.

Big 12

7

Mississippi St.

SEC

7

Auburn

SEC

8

Washington

Pac-12

8

Ole Miss

SEC

8

Baylor

Big 12

8

TCU

Big 12

9

Texas

Big 12

9

North Carolina St.

ACC

9

Utah St.

MWC

9

Central Florida

AAC

10

Florida

SEC

10

Oklahoma

Big 12

10

Clemson

ACC

10

Alabama

SEC

11

St. John’s

Big East

11

Ohio St.

Big Ten

11

Syracuse

ACC

11

Butler

Big East

11

Seton Hall

Big East

11

Minnesota

Big Ten

12

Wofford

SoCon

12

Lipscomb

ASUN

12

VCU

Atlantic 10

12

Hofstra

CAA

13

New Mexico St.

WAC

13

Yale

Ivy League

13

Belmont

OVC

13

Vermont

America East

14

Old Dominion

C-USA

14

South Dakota St.

Summit League

14

Northern Kentucky

Horizon

14

UC Irvine

Big West

15

Texas St.

Sun Belt

15

Montana

Big Sky

15

Loyola (Chi)

MVC

15

Radford

Big South

16

Bucknell

Patriot

16

Abilene Christian

Southland

16

Quinnipiac

MAAC

16

Texas Southern

SWAC

16

St. Francis (PA)

NEC

16

Norfolk St.

MEAC

Last 4 Byes

Clemson

Alabama

St. John’s (NY)

Ohio St.

Last 4 In

Syracuse

Butler

Seton Hall

Minnesota

First 4 Out

Indiana

Temple

Seton Hall

UNC Greensboro

Next 4 Out

Florida

Nebraska

Creighton

Davidson

First Four Pairings

Syracuse vs. Seton Hall

Butler vs. Minnesota

Quinnipiac vs. Norfolk St.

Texas Southern vs. St. Francis (PA)

Beginning today, we are using all the same criteria being used by the Selection Committee to pick the bracket the way we believe the Committee will select.  Based on the Committee’s 16-team preview last weekend, we adjusted our bracket to try to mimic their actions.  The major adjustment was increasing the clout of strength of schedules.  Thus, we greatly downgraded all the Mid-Major and Low-Major contenders.

 

 

 

 

 

 

February 11, 2019

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For Monday, February 11, 2019

February 11, 2019

Seed

SCHOOL

Conf.

1

Duke

ACC

1

Gonzaga

West Coast

1

Tennessee

SEC

1

Virginia

ACC

2

Kentucky

SEC

2

Michigan

Big Ten

2

Michigan St.

Big Ten

2

North Carolina

ACC

3

Houston

American

3

Purdue

Big Ten

3

Marquette

Big East

3

Kansas

Big 12

4

Texas Tech

Big 12

4

Nevada

Mtn West

4

LSU

SEC

4

Louisville

ACC

5

Wisconsin

Big Ten

5

Iowa St.

Big 12

5

Iowa

Big Ten

5

Villanova

Big East

6

Kansas St.

Big 12

6

Virginia Tech

ACC

6

Buffalo

Mid-American

6

Maryland

Big Ten

7

Cincinnati

American

7

Florida St.

ACC

7

Mississippi St.

SEC

7

Ohio St.

Big Ten

8

Washington

Pac-12

8

Auburn

SEC

8

TCU

Big 12

8

Texas

Big 12

9

Baylor

Big 12

9

North Carolina St.

ACC

9

Ole Miss

SEC

9

St. John’s

Big East

10

Alabama

SEC

10

Syracuse

ACC

10

Nebraska

Big Ten

10

Florida

SEC

11

Oklahoma

Big 12

11

UNC Greensboro

SoCon

11

Clemson

ACC

11

Indiana

Big Ten

11

Central Florida

American

11

Utah St.

Mtn West

12

Wofford

SoCon

12

Lipscomb

Atlantic Sun

12

Virginia Commonwealth

Atlantic 10

12

Hofstra

Colonial

13

New Mexico St.

WAC

13

Belmont

Ohio Valley

13

Yale

Ivy

13

Vermont

America East

14

Old Dominion

CUSA

14

South Dakota St.

Summit

14

Northern Kentucky

Horizon

14

UC Irvine

Big West

15

Montana

Big Sky

15

Texas St.

Sun Belt

15

Loyola (Chi)

Missouri Valley

15

Radford

Big South

16

Colgate

Patriot

16

Sam Houston St.

Southland

16

Rider

Metro Atlantic

16

Fairleigh Dickinson

Northeast

16

Texas Southern

Southwestern

16

Norfolk St.

Mideastern

First 4 Out

Butler

Temple

Creighton

Minnesota

Next 4 Out

Saint Mary’s

Toledo

San Francisco

Furman

Last 4 In

Clemson

Indiana

Central Florida

Utah St.

Last 4 Byes

Nebraska

Florida

Oklahoma

UNC Greensboro

 

First Four Games in Dayton

Clemson vs. Utah St.

Indiana vs. Central Florida

Rider vs. Norfolk St.

Fairleigh-Dickinson vs. Texas Southern

 

Adjustments Based on Selection Committee’s Reveal

Beginning today, some of our bracketology seedings have been affected by our reaction to the NCAA Selection Committee’s interpretation of the same data we look at.  As the season continues and we have time to look at each resume, we will begin to analyze the teams more based on what we believe the Selection Committee thinks rather than determining which teams deserve to be in the field based on the NCAA’s selection criteria.

When all is said and done, the Committee members vote on the teams in the dance, and human bias obviously comes into play.  Like the best political spin doctors, the committee can always spin the data in favor of teams they prefer to be in the field and then spin the data in opposition to teams they excluded.

 

February 8, 2019

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For Friday, February 8, 2019

February 8, 2019

Seed

SCHOOL

Conf.

1

Virginia

ACC

1

Gonzaga

West Coast

1

Duke

ACC

1

Tennessee

SEC

2

Kentucky

SEC

2

Michigan

Big Ten

2

North Carolina

ACC

2

Michigan St.

Big Ten

3

Virginia Tech

ACC

3

Purdue

Big Ten

3

Houston

American Athletic

3

Wisconsin

Big Ten

4

Iowa St.

Big 12

4

Louisville

ACC

4

Nevada

Mtn West

4

Texas Tech

Big 12

5

LSU

SEC

5

Kansas

Big 12

5

Villanova

Big East

5

Auburn

SEC

6

Marquette

Big East

6

Maryland

Big Ten

6

Iowa

Big Ten

6

Cincinnati

American Athletic

7

Washington

Pac-12

7

Mississippi St.

SEC

7

Florida St.

ACC

7

Kansas St.

Big 12

8

Baylor

Big 12

8

Utah St.

Mtn West

8

North Carolina St.

ACC

8

Oklahoma

Big 12

9

Nebraska

Big Ten

9

Ohio St.

Big Ten

9

Texas

Big 12

9

St. John’s

Big East

10

TCU

Big 12

10

Ole Miss

SEC

10

Florida

SEC

10

Clemson

ACC

11

Alabama

SEC

11

Central Florida

American Athletic

11

Indiana

Big Ten

11

VCU

Atlantic 10

11

Syracuse

ACC

11

Temple

American Athletic

12

Buffalo

MAC

12

Wofford

SoCon

12

Lipscomb

Atl Sun

12

Hofstra

Colonial

13

New Mexico St.

WAC

13

Belmont

Ohio Valley

13

Vermont

America East

13

Yale

Ivy League

14

Old Dominion

C-USA

14

South Dakota St.

Summit League

14

Montana

Big Sky

14

Northern Kentucky

Horizon

15

Texas St.

Sun Belt

15

UC Irvine

Big West

15

Radford

Big South

15

Loyola (Chi)

MVC

16

Bucknell

Patriot

16

Sam Houston

Southland

16

Rider

Metro Atlantic

16

Robert Morris

Northeast

16

Prairie View

SWAC

16

Norfolk St.

MEAC

First 4 Out

Minnesota

Creighton

Butler

Saint Mary’s

Next 4 Out

Davidson

UNC Greensboro

San Francisco

Toledo

Last 4 Byes

Florida

Clemson

Alabama

Central Florida

Last 4 In

Indiana

VCU

Syracuse

Temple

In Dayton

Indiana vs. Temple

Virginia Commonwealth vs. Syracuse

Rider vs. Norfolk St.

Prairie View vs. Robert Morris

 

Note: The Selection Committee will issue its original report for the top 4 seeds in each region on Saturday.  Based on what they reveal, the PiRates may or may not adjust their Bracketology report beginning Monday.

 

Note 2: Buffalo, Wofford, and Lipscomb  project as much higher seeds than #12, but in order to place no at-large team lower than #11, the three had to be lowered to #12.

February 1, 2019

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For Friday, February 1, 2019

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:23 am

February 1

Seed

SCHOOL

Conf.

1

Virginia

ACC

1

Gonzaga

WCC

1

Duke

ACC

1

Michigan

Big Ten

2

Tennessee

SEC

2

Michigan St.

Big Ten

2

Kentucky

SEC

2

Houston

AAC

3

North Carolina

ACC

3

Virginia Tech

ACC

3

Purdue

Big Ten

3

Louisville

ACC

4

Wisconsin

Big Ten

4

Iowa St.

Big 12

4

Texas Tech

Big 12

4

LSU

SEC

5

Nevada

MWC

5

Marquette

Big East

5

Buffalo

MAC

5

Kansas

Big 12

6

Villanova

Big East

6

Maryland

Big Ten

6

Cincinnati

AAC

6

Auburn

SEC

7

North Carolina St.

ACC

7

Mississippi St.

SEC

7

Iowa

Big Ten

7

Nebraska

Big Ten

8

Washington

Pac-12

8

TCU

Big 12

8

Wofford

SoCon

8

Oklahoma

Big 12

9

Florida St.

ACC

9

Baylor

Big 12

9

Kansas St.

Big 12

9

Lipscomb

ASUN

10

Ole Miss

SEC

10

Ohio St.

Big Ten

10

Florida

SEC

10

Utah St.

MWC

11

Texas

Big 12

11

Central Florida

AAC

11

Alabama

SEC

11

St. John’s

Big East

11

Syracuse

ACC

11

San Francisco

WCC

12

Hofstra

CAA

12

Indiana

Big Ten

12

Murray St.

OVC

12

Minnesota

Big Ten

13

Virginia Commonwealth

Atlantic 10

13

Yale

Ivy League

13

Vermont

America East

13

New Mexico St.

WAC

14

Northern Kentucky

Horizon

14

Texas St.

Sun Belt

14

South Dakota St.

Summit League

14

North Texas

C-USA

15

Montana

Big Sky

15

Radford

Big South

15

UC Irvine

Big West

15

Loyola (Chi.)

MVC

16

Lehigh

Patriot

16

Abilene Christian

Southland

16

Rider

MAAC

16

Fairleigh Dickinson

NEC

16

Prairie View

SWAC

16

Norfolk St.

MEAC

 

First 4 Out

UNC Greensboro

Saint Mary’s

Clemson

Butler

Next 4 Out

Northwestern

Temple

Memphis

Arizona St.

Last 4 In

Alabama

St. John’s

Syracuse

San Francisco

Last 4 Byes

Florida

Utah St.

Texas

Central Florida

First 4 #16 Seeds

Rider

Fairleigh Dickinson

Prairie View

Norfolk St.

 

First Four Games If Season Ended Today

Alabama vs. San Francisco

St. John’s vs. Syracuse

Rider vs. Nofolk St.

Fairleigh-Dickinson vs. Prairie View

 

Bids By Conference

Conference

Bids

Big Ten

10

ACC

8

SEC

8

Big 12

8

Big East

3

AAC

3

MWC

2

West Coast

2

One Bid Leagues

24

January 28, 2019

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For Monday, January 28, 2019

January 28, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Seed Line

Seed

SCHOOL

Conf.

1

Virginia

ACC

1

Gonzaga

WCC

1

Duke

ACC

1

Michigan

Big Ten

2

Tennessee

SEC

2

Michigan St.

Big Ten

2

Houston

AAC

2

Kentucky

SEC

3

North Carolina

ACC

3

Virginia Tech

ACC

3

Purdue

Big Ten

3

Louisville

ACC

4

Wisconsin

Big Ten

4

Iowa St.

Big 12

4

LSU

SEC

4

Kansas

Big 12

5

Nevada

MWC

5

Texas Tech

Big 12

5

Marquette

Big East

5

Buffalo

MAC

6

Villanova

Big East

6

Maryland

Big Ten

6

Cincinnati

AAC

6

Oklahoma

Big 12

7

Nebraska

Big Ten

7

Auburn

SEC

7

Mississippi St.

SEC

7

TCU

Big 12

8

NC State

ACC

8

Iowa

Big Ten

8

Washington

Pac-12

8

Florida St.

ACC

9

Kansas St.

Big 12

9

Ole Miss

SEC

9

Florida

SEC

9

Ohio St.

Big Ten

10

Utah St.

MWC

10

UCF

AAC

10

Indiana

Big Ten

10

Baylor

Big 12

11

Texas

Big 12

11

Alabama

SEC

11

San Francisco

WCC

11

Syracuse

ACC

11

St. John’s 

Big East

11

Butler

Big East

12

Wofford

SoCon

12

Lipscomb

ASUN

12

Hofstra

CAA

12

Murray St.

OVC

13

VCU

Atlantic 10

13

Yale

Ivy League

13

New Mexico St.

WAC

13

Vermont

America East

14

Northern Ky.

Horizon

14

Texas St.

Sun Belt

14

North Texas

C-USA

14

South Dakota St.

Summit League

15

Radford

Big South

15

Montana

Big Sky

15

Drake

MVC

15

UC Irvine

Big West

16

Lehigh

Patriot

16

Rider

MAAC

16

Abilene Christian

Southland

16

St. Francis (NY)

NEC

16

Texas Southern

SWAC

16

Norfolk St.

MEAC

 

Last Four IN

San Francisco

Syracuse

St. John’s

Butler

USF vs. Butler and Syracuse vs. St. John’s in Dayton First Four

 

Last Four BYES

Indiana

Baylor

Texas

Alabama

 

First Four OUT

Minnesota

UNC-Greensboro

Memphis

Saint Mary’s

 

Next Four OUT

Northwestern

Creighton

Clemson

Temple

 

#16 Seeds Headed to Dayton

Abilene Christian vs. Norfolk St.

St. Francis (NY) vs. Texas Southern

 

Bids By Conference

Conference Bids
Big Ten 9
ACC 8
SEC 8
Big 12 8
Big East 4
AAC 3
MWC 2
West Coast 2
One Bid Leagues 24

 

The Top Mid-Majors

We include the West Coast and Mountain West Conferences to be Major Conferences.

Top Mid-Majors
5 Buffalo MAC
12 Wofford SoCon
12 Lipscomb ASUN
12 Hofstra CAA

 

Changes to This Week’s Bracketology Report 

Beginning this week, we move the last four at-large seeds to the 11-seed line, because in almost every year in the past, the last four in the tournament were seeded #11.  Personally, we feel like this is a disservice to some of the #12 mid-major seeds.  Hofstra, Lipscomb, and Wofford are more deserving of higher seeds that where we have placed them on the 12-line, but moving any of the three upward would force us to move one of the last four at-large teams below the 11-seed line.

At this point in the season, we are still almost entirely basing our seedings on the NCAA Net Ratings.  Once the season progresses into Mid-February and then March, we will begin to add “politics” into our selections as we believe the Selection Committee will do.  It is our opinion that eventually, a second Pac-12 team will be added to the field even if it is not deserving.  The Committee will find a way to explain why they artificially added one of the Arizona’s or Oregon, using the exact opposite logic they will use to explain why a more deserving team from a Mid-Major conference did not get in.

At this point in the season, there are teams with nice NET ratings that are buried deep in their own conference standings.

In the ACC, Florida State is currently tied for 8th place in the league with a 3-4 record, while Pittsburgh is in 11th place at 2-5.  Could the Committee chose an ACC team that goes 7-11 in league play?  Syracuse made the field last year at 8-10.

Oklahoma and Texas are currently tied for 7th in the Big 12 with 3-4 conference records.  They both got in the field last year at 8-10, and this year’s league race is tight.  12-6 could earn a piece of the league title, and we could see the top 8 teams finishing within 4 games of each other, maybe even just 3 games.

The Big East is in a bit of trouble, even with the reigning NCAA Champion residing in this league.  Villanova (7-0) and Marquette (7-1) have lapped the field.  No other team has a break-even conference record.  Georgetown, Providence, and Creighton are each 3-4.  St. John’s, Seton Hall, and Butler are all 3-5.  This league has sent teams with .500 conference records in recent years, but not an 8-10 team.

The Big Ten ranks at the top of the food chain this year, so it should be a given that a 9-9 conference record will get in the Dance.  This is quite a change from last year, where Nebraska did not get in after going 13-5 in the league.  Take note that the last Big Ten team to get into the NCAA Tournament with an 8-10 conference record was Minnesota in 2013.

The Mountain West has been a multiple-bid league for all but one year in recent history, and the league has sent as many as five teams in a season in this past decade.  With Nevada contending for a top 10 finish, and with Utah State staying in good graces with the NET Ratings, this looks like a two-bid league with an outside chance for a third team to get in if somebody other than Nevada or Utah State wins the automatic bid.  Fresno State, UNLV, and Boise State have the talent to win the conference tournament, and you can never rule out San Diego State with their defense from winning three games in three days.

About the Pac-12: Washington has taken command of the conference race by starting 7-0 in the league.  Mike Hopkins is doing his best Jim Boeheim impersonation in Seattle.  However, it is not like the rest of the league is chopped liver.  Down years from Oregon and UCLA have hurt the league, but USC and Arizona State are good enough to make the tournament, and Arizona has talent that needs to gel.  We cannot see any scenario where only one team makes the Big Dance from the “League of Champions.”  Expect at least two and maybe three Pac-12 teams to get into the field.

Auburn was ranked #7 in the nation earlier this year, but the Tigers are fading into the bottom half of the SEC standings.  At 2-4 in the league, Auburn is tied for 9th in the league. We see no more than 8 SEC teams making the field, and it could be just 7, so the Tigers have a lot of work to do to secure a spot in the field.  Their next three games are at home, so they could be 5-4 in the league when they go to LSU on February 9.

A stranger team in the SEC is South Carolina.  The Gamecocks are 5-1 in the league, but 5-8 outside of league play.  At 10-9, they do not show up favorably in the NET ratings, but this team could easily go 12-6 or better in the SEC.  USC already has wins over Auburn, Mississippi State, and Florida, the last coming in Gainesville.  A win tomorrow night over #1 Tennessee would make it awfully tough on the Selection Committee to ignore a team that would be 6-1 in the SEC with four wins over ranked opponents.  If USC wins tomorrow night, they have a path to 14-4 in the SEC, and 19-12 overall before the conference tournament begins.  Frank Martin can squeeze wins out of lesser talent, and with a roster stacked with 3-star players, he must be given credit for beating teams on the road that had 4-star and 5-star players on their roster.

We treat the West Coast Conference as a major conference because Gonzaga has been a 1-seed multiple times, and Saint Mary’s has been in the Elite 8.  We won’t include San Francisco’s past national championships and additional Final Four seasons, because that was another era.  However, the Dons may be on the precipice of earning an at-large bid this year.  Saint Mary’s is a bit down this year, but don’t count the Gaels out yet.  And, with BYU and San Diego looking tough this year, five strong teams, with the cream of the crop being a top 5 squad, means the WCC should be a multiple bid league again in 2019.

 

Coming tomorrow: We take an in-depth look at the top Mid-Major teams and conference races.  We hope if you are a basketball fanatic that you have taken time to watch some outstanding and exciting games.  There are multiple Mid-Major conferences with must-see competition.

 

 

 

January 25, 2019

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For Friday, January 25, 2019

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:56 am

January 25, 2019

Seed Line

Seed SCHOOL Conf.
1 Virginia ACC
1 Duke ACC
1 Michigan St. Big Ten
1 Gonzaga West Coast
2 Tennessee SEC
2 Michigan Big Ten
2 Houston American
2 Kentucky SEC
3 North Carolina ACC
3 Purdue Big Ten
3 Virginia Tech ACC
3 LSU SEC
4 Louisville ACC
4 Kansas Big 12
4 Wisconsin Big Ten
4 Iowa St. Big 12
5 Texas Tech Big 12
5 Nevada Mountain West
5 Maryland Big Ten
5 Marquette Big East
6 Nebraska Big Ten
6 Iowa Big Ten
6 Buffalo MAC
6 Villanova Big East
7 Auburn SEC
7 Wofford Southern
7 NC State ACC
7 TCU Big 12
8 Oklahoma Big 12
8 Kansas St. Big 12
8 Mississippi St. SEC
8 Ole Miss SEC
9 Cincinnati American
9 Florida St. ACC
9 UCF American
9 Indiana Big Ten
10 Florida SEC
10 Utah St. Mountain West
10 Washington Pac-12
10 St. John’s (NY) Big East
11 Alabama SEC
11 San Francisco West Coast
11 Texas Big 12
11 Murray St. Ohio Valley
12 Lipscomb ASUN
12 Ohio St. Big Ten
12 Butler Big East
12 Syracuse ACC
12 Arizona Pac-12
12 Hofstra Colonial
13 VCU Atlantic 10
13 Yale Ivy
13 New Mexico St. WAC
13 North Texas CUSA
14 Radford Big South
14 Vermont America East
14 Texas St. Sun Belt
14 Northern Ky. Horizon
15 Montana Big Sky
15 South Dakota St. Summit
15 Loyola Chicago Missouri Valley
15 UC Irvine Big West
16 Colgate Patriot
16 Rider Metro Atlantic
16 Abilene Christian Southland
16 Texas Southern SWAC
16 St. Francis Brooklyn Northeast
16 N.C. A&T MEAC

 

First 4 Out
Baylor
Northwestern
Seton Hall
Pittsburgh
Next 4 Out
Clemson
Creighton
Temple
UNC Greensboro
Last 4 In
Ohio St.
Butler
Syracuse
Arizona
Last 4 Byes
St. John’s (NY)
Alabama
San Francisco
Texas
First 4 #16 Seeds
Abilene Christian
Texas Southern
St. Francis Brooklyn
N.C. A&T
5 Potential At-large Mid-Majors
UNC-Greensboro
Liberty
Saint Mary’s
Furman

 

Multiple Bid Leagues

Conference Bids
Big Ten 9
ACC 8
SEC 8
Big 12 7
Big East 4
AAC 3
MWC 2
Pac-12 2
West Coast 2

 

Coming Next Week

Monday: New Ratings and Bracketology

Tuesday: A closer look at the one-bid leagues and their top competitors

Friday: New Ratings and Bracketology

 

January 21, 2019

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For Monday, January 21, 2019

January 21, 2019

Seed SCHOOL Conf.
1 Virginia ACC
1 Duke ACC
1 Gonzaga West Coast
1 Tennessee SEC
2 Michigan St. Big Ten
2 Michigan Big Ten
2 Houston AAC
2 Kentucky SEC
3 Virginia Tech ACC
3 Buffalo MAC
3 Texas Tech Big 12
3 North Carolina ACC
4 Nebraska Big Ten
4 LSU SEC
4 Purdue Big Ten
4 Louisville ACC
5 Wisconsin Big Ten
5 Iowa St. Big 12
5 Kansas Big 12
5 Maryland Big Ten
6 Marquette Big East
6 Nevada MWC
6 Auburn SEC
6 Iowa Big Ten
7 Ole Miss SEC
7 NC State ACC
7 Mississippi St. SEC
7 Villanova Big East
8 Wofford Southern
8 Oklahoma Big 12
8 TCU Big 12
8 Cincinnati AAC
9 Indiana Big Ten
9 Kansas St. Big 12
9 Florida SEC
9 Washington Pac-12
10 UCF AAC
10 San Francisco West Coast
10 Ohio St. Big Ten
10 Florida St. ACC
11 Utah St. MWC
11 St. John’s (NY) Big East
11 Butler Big East
11 Murray St. OVC
12 Texas Big 12
12 Lipscomb ASUN
12 Syracuse ACC
12 Alabama SEC
12 VCU Atlantic 10
12 Arizona Pac-12
13 Hofstra Colonial
13 Vermont America East
13 Yale Ivy
13 New Mexico St. WAC
14 North Texas C-USA
14 Radford Big South
14 Loyola Chicago MVC
14 Texas St. Sun Belt
15 Northern Ky. Horizon
15 Montana Big Sky
15 South Dakota St. Summit
15 UC Irvine Big West
16 Colgate Patriot
16 Rider Metro Atlantic
16 Abilene Christian Southland
16 Texas Southern SWAC
16 Fairleigh Dickinson Northeast
16 N.C. A&T MEAC

First Four Out

Saint Mary’s 
Baylor
Pittsburgh
Seton Hall

 

Next Four Out

Clemson
Northwestern
Temple
Creighton

 

Last 4 In

Texas
Syracuse
Alabama
Arizona

Dayton Matchups

Texas vs. Arizona

Syracuse vs. Alabama

 

Last 4 Byes

Ohio St.
Florida St.
St. John’s
Butler

 

Last 4 #16 Seeds (Dayton Bound)

Abilene Christian
Texas Southern
Fairleigh Dickinson
N.C. A&T

 

Dayton Matchups

Abilene Christian vs. North Carolina A&T

Texas Southern vs. Fairleigh Dickinson

 

5 Mid-Major Teams That Should Be On The Bubble (but probably would be excluded)

Liberty
UNC Greensboro
Toledo
Furman
Fresno St.

 

Multiple Bids By Conference

Conference Bids
Big Ten 9
ACC 8
SEC 8
Big 12 7
Big East 4
AAC 3
MWC 2
Pac-12 2
West Coast 2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

March 14, 2018

PiRate Ratings Spreads For NCAA Tournament Games of Wed., March 14

Higher Seed Lower Seed Spread
UNC-Central Texas Southern -2.8
Arizona St. Syracuse 1.9

Tournament Schedule

All Times Eastern Daylight

Wednesday, Mar 14, 2018
TIME Higher Seed Lower Seed City TV
6:40 PM 16 UNC-Central 16 Texas Southern Dayton, OH truTV
9:10 PM 11 Arizona St. 11 Syracuse Dayton, OH truTV

 

Thursday, Mar 15, 2018
TIME Higher Seed Lower Seed City TV
12:15 PM 7 Rhode Island 10 Oklahoma Pittsburgh CBS
12:40 PM 3 Tennessee 14 Wright St. Dallas truTV
1:30 PM 4 Gonzaga 13 UNC-Greensboro Boise, ID TNT
2:00 PM 1 Kansas 16 Penn Wichita, KS TBS
2:45 PM 2 Duke 15 Iona Pittsburgh CBS
3:10 PM 6 Miami (Fla.) 11 Loyola (Chi.) Dallas truTV
4:00 PM 5 Ohio St. 12 South Dakota St. Boise, ID TNT
4:30 PM 8 Seton Hall 9 North Carolina St. Wichita, KS TBS
6:50 PM 1 Villanova 16 Radford Pittsburgh TNT
7:10 PM 5 Kentucky 12 Davidson Boise, ID CBS
7:20 PM 6 Houston 11 San Diego St Wichita, KS TBS
7:27 PM 3 Texas Tech 14 Stephen F. Austin Dallas truTV
9:20 PM 8 Virginia Tech 9 Alabama Pittsburgh TNT
9:40 PM 4 Arizona 13 Buffalo Boise, ID CBS
9:50 PM 3 Michigan 14 Montana Wichita, KS TBS
9:57 PM 6 Florida 11 St. Bonaventure Dallas truTV

 

Friday, Mar 16, 2018
TIME Higher Seed Lower Seed City TV
12:15 PM 7 Texas A&M 10 Providence Charlotte CBS
12:40 PM 2 Purdue 15 Cal St. Fullerton Detroit truTV
1:30 PM 4 Wichita St. 13 Marshall San Diego TNT
2:00 PM 2 Cincinnati 15 Georgia St. Nashville TBS
2:45 PM 2 North Carolina 15 Lipscomb Charlotte CBS
3:10 PM 7 Arkansas 10 Butler Detroit truTV
4:00 PM 5 West Virginia 12 Murray St. San Diego TNT
4:30 PM 7 Nevada 10 Texas Nashville TBS
6:50 PM 8 Creighton 9 Kansas St. Charlotte TNT
7:10 PM 3 Michigan St. 14 Bucknell Detroit CBS
7:20 PM 1 Xavier 16 UNCC/Tex Sou. Nashville TBS
7:27 PM 4 Auburn 13 Charleston San Diego truTV
9:20 PM 1 Virginia 16 MD-Baltimore Co. Charlotte TNT
9:40 PM 6 TCU 11 Ariz.St./Syracuse Detroit CBS
9:50 PM 8 Missouri 9 Florida St. Nashville TBS
9:57 PM 5 Clemson 12 New Mexico St. San Diego truTV

 

Note: Virginia’s outstanding 6th Man De’Andre Hunter is out for the season, and this will knock the Cavaliers down a few notches in our criteria.  If you have not submitted your brackets yet, you might take this into consideration, as the Cavaliers have lost a potent weapon that could play anywhere on the floor.  He was to Virginia what John Havlicek was to the Boston Celtics in the 1960’s, the 6th man that was the secret sauce of Red Auerbach’s extended success.  Without Hunter, Virginia reverts back to a great defensive team that lacks enough offensive power to beat an athletic opponent the likes of Arizona or Cincinnati.  Hunter was instrumental in helping the Cavs secure two wins over Syracuse, and road wins against Miami and Virginia Tech.

 

The PiRates New Criteria Shows Beginner’s Luck

Did you read our lengthy piece yesterday pertaining to our brand new paradigm?  The PiRates scrapped our old, archaic system of picking brackets and debuted our new mostly statistical metric based criteria.

We were not sure how successful it might be in the first year of its existence, and we are sure we will need to tweak it some in the ensuing years, but we started out with a bang last night.

We hit both games and basically called how St. Bonaventure would send the Sons of Westwood home to SoCal.  We wrote that we believed the Bonnies would force turnovers on the Bruins, which would be the deciding factor in the game, and it was spot on.

We are reminded that a broken watch is also correct twice a day.

 

 

 

 

 

March 11, 2018

PiRate Ratings’ Bracket Gurus’ Final Predictions For the Field of 68

That Darn Davidson
Call it the Steph Curry Effect. It would happen that the one bid-stealing team in the Conference Tournament part of March Madness would be a team from a conference that played its championship game on Selection Sunday afternoon.

 
At least the Selection Committee had to deal with this contingency as well. If our Bracket Gurus know their stuff, they believe that bubble burst popping sound you just heard emanated from Moraga, California, and Saint Mary’s just became a number one seed in the NIT.

What about the other near miss teams?  Our gurus believe (but not unanimously) the bubbles had already burst on Louisville, Middle Tennessee State, Syracuse, Marquette, Baylor, Notre Dame, and Oklahoma St.

Now, with Davidson getting in with the automatic bid, some non-guru bracketologists might simple place the Wildcats in the NCAA Tournament and remove A-10 member St. Bonaventure. It doesn’t work like that. All of our Gurus already locked the Bonnies into the field. Saint Mary’s had the bottom score of the 68 teams, and with the Gaels sulking as they prepare to host an NIT game (or if our Gurus miss), now the #68 team is Arizona St. The Sun Devils are not really affected by the upset in D.C., if our Gurus have it right. They were already headed to Dayton as one of the Last Four in.

The team other than Saint Mary’s that suffered from Davidson’s win is the former last team in with a bye. USC was the number 64 team on the seed line, but after Davidson removed Saint Mary’s from the 11-seed line, it knocked the Trojans down to the fourth weakest Guru score. Thus, the Trojans are picked to join Arizona State, St. Bonaventure, and Texas in First Four games in Dayton.

Our Gurus had a difficult time narrowing the field of 68 from a field of 71. Word leaked out of the Selection Committee early Sunday morning, that all but one at-large spot had been determined prior to any games this afternoon. Our Gurus took that as a slap across 14 faces. If the Committee had it down to 69, then they could too. Between 8AM and Noon Eastern Time today, the Gurus agreed to vote Louisville, Middle Tennessee St., Marquette, and Syracuse off the Madness Island. Pending the outcome of the Davidson-Rhode Island game, the Gurus had the teams selected. A couple of late games might have affected a couple of seeds, as Cincinnati and Tennessee could swap with a Volunteer win and Bearcat loss. Tennessee lost to Kentucky in the SEC Championship, so Cincinnati should stay where they are, win or lose in the AAC Championship Game, which is about to tip off.
Since we are going to press before the American Athletic Conference Tournament ends, we told our Gurus to assume that Cincinnati wins the game and keeps their high seed.  There is a chance a Cinti loss could elevate another team from three to two seed, but we believe the Committee doesn’t want to mess with this contingency this late in the game.  We figured that time was more of the essence than waiting for the last game to finish.
So, with that in mind, here is the PiRate Ratings Bracket Gurus’ Final Prediction. If we get 68 out of 68 again this year, it will be a minor miracle. It wasn’t easy for the Gurus to come close to a consensus. Middle Tennessee, Louisville, Syracuse, Marquette, and Baylor all received at least one vote out of 14 Guru lists. Saint Mary’s, Arizona St., and Texas were left off at least 3 of the 14 ballots.

 

Seed Team Conference
1 Virginia ACC
1 Villanova B-EAST
1 Xavier B-EAST
1 Kansas B12
2 Duke ACC
2 Purdue B-TEN
2 North Carolina ACC
2 Cincinnati AAC
3 Michigan St. B-TEN
3 Tennessee SEC
3 Michigan B-TEN
3 Auburn SEC
4 West Virginia B12
4 Arizona PAC-12
4 Texas Tech B12
4 Wichita St. AAC
5 Clemson ACC
5 Gonzaga WCC
5 Kentucky SEC
5 Ohio St. B-TEN
6 Houston AAC
6 Florida SEC
6 Miami (Fla.) ACC
6 Arkansas SEC
7 Texas A&M SEC
7 TCU B12
7 Rhode Island A-10
7 Seton Hall B-EAST
8 Nevada MWC
8 Virginia Tech ACC
8 Missouri SEC
8 Providence B-EAST
9 Alabama SEC
9 Butler B-EAST
9 Florida St. ACC
9 Creighton B-EAST
10 North Carolina St. ACC
10 Kansas St. B12
10 UCLA PAC-12
10 Oklahoma B12
11 USC PAC-12
11 Texas B12
11 St. Bonaventure A-10
11 Arizona St. PAC-12
11 Loyola (Chi.) MVC
11 San Diego St. MWC
12 New Mexico St. WAC
12 South Dakota St. SUMMIT
12 Buffalo MAC
12 Davidson A-10
13 Murray St. OVC
13 UNC-Greensboro SOCON
13 Marshall CUSA
13 Charleston CAA
14 Bucknell PATRIOT
14 Montana B-SKY
14 Wright St. HORIZON
14 Georgia St./UT-Arlington SBC
15 Stephen F. Austin SLC
15 Lipscomb A-SUN
15 Iona MAAC
15 Penn IVY
16 MD-Baltimore Co. A-EAST
16 Cal St. Fullerton B-WEST
16 Long Island NEC
16 Radford B-SOUTH
16 UNC-Central MEAC
16 Texas Southern SWAC

Our Gurus’ Additional Picks

First Four Round in Dayton

11-seed line: Texas vs. Arizona St.

11-seed line: USC vs. St. Bonaventure

16-seed line: Long Island vs. Texas Southern

16-seed line: Radford vs. UNC-Central

 

Last 4 Byes

61. North Carolina St.

62. Kansas St.

63. UCLA

64. Oklahoma

 

First Four Out

69. Saint Mary’s

70. Middle Tennessee St.

71. Louisville

72. Syracuse

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