PiRate Ratings Bracketology For Monday, February 18, 2019

February 18, 2019

Seed	School	Conf.
1	Gonzaga	West Coast
1	Duke	ACC
1	Virginia	ACC
1	Tennessee	SEC
2	Kentucky	SEC
2	Michigan St.	Big Ten
2	Michigan	Big Ten
2	North Carolina	ACC
3	Purdue	Big Ten
3	Houston	American Athletic
3	Kansas	Big 12
3	Nevada	Mountain West
4	LSU	SEC
4	Marquette	Big East
4	Iowa St.	Big 12
4	Virginia Tech	ACC
5	Louisville	ACC
5	Iowa	Big Ten
5	Texas Tech	Big 12
5	Wisconsin	Big Ten
6	Villanova	Big East
6	Maryland	Big Ten
6	Florida St.	ACC
6	Kansas St.	Big 12
7	Cincinnati	American Athletic
7	Buffalo	Mid-American
7	Auburn	SEC
7	Mississippi St.	SEC
8	Wofford	Southern
8	Washington	Pac-12
8	Baylor	Big 12
8	Ole Miss	SEC
9	TCU	Big 12
9	Texas	Big 12
9	North Carolina St.	ACC
9	Utah St.	Mountain West
10	St. John’s	Big East
10	Syracuse	ACC
10	Minnesota	Big Ten
10	Central Florida	American Athletic
11	Temple	American Athletic
11	Oklahoma	Big 12
11	Clemson	ACC
11	Ohio St.	Big Ten
11	Seton Hall	Big East
12	Alabama	SEC
12	Butler	Big East
12	Hofstra	Colonial
12	Lipscomb	Atlantic Sun
12	Virginia Commonwealth	Atlantic 10
13	New Mexico St.	WAC
13	Belmont	Ohio Valley
13	Vermont	America East
13	Yale	Ivy League
14	Old Dominion	CUSA
14	South Dakota St.	Summit
14	UC Irvine	Big West
14	Northern Kentucky	Horizon
15	Texas St.	Sun Belt
15	Montana	Big Sky
15	Missouri St.	Missouri Valley
15	Radford	Big South
16	Bucknell	Patriot
16	Sam Houston St.	Southland
16	Rider	Metro Atlantic
16	Texas Southern	SWAC
16	St. Francis (PA)	Northeast
16	Norfolk St.	MEAC

 

First Four OUT

Indiana

Florida

Arizona St.

Furman

 

Next Four Out

Nebraska

Creighton

Davidson

Murray St.

 

Last Four IN

Ohio St.

Seton Hall

Alabama

Butler

 

Last Four BYES

Central Florida

Temple

Oklahoma

Clemson

 

First Four

For the first time this year, we have staggered the seed lines for the First Four games involving the final four at-large bids.  We have one game pitting 11-seeds and another game pitting 12-seeds.  This could change before Selection Sunday.

For your information, the First Four games have mostly  been with 11-seeds, but there have been 12-seeds, and even 13-seeds and 14-seeds earlier in this decade.

Because of the rule that no teams from the same conference can face off in the First Four games, we had to move two teams in the seed line to prevent a conference matchup in Dayton.

11-Seed Line: Ohio State vs. Seton Hall

12-Seed Line: Alabama vs. Butler

16-Seed Line: Rider vs. Norfolk St.

16-Seed Line: Texas Southern vs. Fairleigh Dickinson

 

There are four teams that if they lose in their conference tournament, they will still be an at-large entry, and their conference will improve from one to two bids.

Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference

Washington in the Pac-12 Conference

Wofford in the Southern Conference

Buffalo in the Mid-American Conference

 

There are four other Mid-Major teams that need to be in the discussion by the Selection Committee (in addition to the Mid-Majors already on our Bubble above).

Murray State (or Belmont) in the Ohio Valley Conference

Liberty (or Lipscomb) in the Atlantic Sun Conference

Saint Mary’s in the West Coast Conference

Toledo in the Mid-American Conference

 

 

 

Advertisements

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For Friday, February 15, 2019

February 15, 2019

Seed	SCHOOL	Conf.
1	Duke	ACC
1	Virginia	ACC
1	Tennessee	SEC
1	Gonzaga	WCC
2	Kentucky	SEC
2	Michigan St.	Big Ten
2	Michigan	Big Ten
2	North Carolina	ACC
3	Houston	AAC
3	Texas Tech	Big 12
3	Purdue	Big Ten
3	Nevada	MWC
4	Kansas	Big 12
4	LSU	SEC
4	Marquette	Big East
4	Louisville	ACC
5	Iowa St.	Big 12
5	Wisconsin	Big Ten
5	Villanova	Big East
5	Virginia Tech	ACC
6	Maryland	Big Ten
6	Cincinnati	AAC
6	Buffalo	MAC
6	Iowa	Big Ten
7	Florida St.	ACC
7	Kansas St.	Big 12
7	Mississippi St.	SEC
7	Auburn	SEC
8	Washington	Pac-12
8	Ole Miss	SEC
8	Baylor	Big 12
8	TCU	Big 12
9	Texas	Big 12
9	North Carolina St.	ACC
9	Utah St.	MWC
9	Central Florida	AAC
10	Florida	SEC
10	Oklahoma	Big 12
10	Clemson	ACC
10	Alabama	SEC
11	St. John’s	Big East
11	Ohio St.	Big Ten
11	Syracuse	ACC
11	Butler	Big East
11	Seton Hall	Big East
11	Minnesota	Big Ten
12	Wofford	SoCon
12	Lipscomb	ASUN
12	VCU	Atlantic 10
12	Hofstra	CAA
13	New Mexico St.	WAC
13	Yale	Ivy League
13	Belmont	OVC
13	Vermont	America East
14	Old Dominion	C-USA
14	South Dakota St.	Summit League
14	Northern Kentucky	Horizon
14	UC Irvine	Big West
15	Texas St.	Sun Belt
15	Montana	Big Sky
15	Loyola (Chi)	MVC
15	Radford	Big South
16	Bucknell	Patriot
16	Abilene Christian	Southland
16	Quinnipiac	MAAC
16	Texas Southern	SWAC
16	St. Francis (PA)	NEC
16	Norfolk St.	MEAC

Last 4 Byes

Clemson

Alabama

St. John’s (NY)

Ohio St.

Last 4 In

Syracuse

Butler

Seton Hall

Minnesota

First 4 Out

Indiana

Temple

Seton Hall

UNC Greensboro

Next 4 Out

Florida

Nebraska

Creighton

Davidson

First Four Pairings

Syracuse vs. Seton Hall

Butler vs. Minnesota

Quinnipiac vs. Norfolk St.

Texas Southern vs. St. Francis (PA)

Beginning today, we are using all the same criteria being used by the Selection Committee to pick the bracket the way we believe the Committee will select.  Based on the Committee’s 16-team preview last weekend, we adjusted our bracket to try to mimic their actions.  The major adjustment was increasing the clout of strength of schedules.  Thus, we greatly downgraded all the Mid-Major and Low-Major contenders.

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For Monday, February 11, 2019

February 11, 2019

Seed	SCHOOL	Conf.
1	Duke	ACC
1	Gonzaga	West Coast
1	Tennessee	SEC
1	Virginia	ACC
2	Kentucky	SEC
2	Michigan	Big Ten
2	Michigan St.	Big Ten
2	North Carolina	ACC
3	Houston	American
3	Purdue	Big Ten
3	Marquette	Big East
3	Kansas	Big 12
4	Texas Tech	Big 12
4	Nevada	Mtn West
4	LSU	SEC
4	Louisville	ACC
5	Wisconsin	Big Ten
5	Iowa St.	Big 12
5	Iowa	Big Ten
5	Villanova	Big East
6	Kansas St.	Big 12
6	Virginia Tech	ACC
6	Buffalo	Mid-American
6	Maryland	Big Ten
7	Cincinnati	American
7	Florida St.	ACC
7	Mississippi St.	SEC
7	Ohio St.	Big Ten
8	Washington	Pac-12
8	Auburn	SEC
8	TCU	Big 12
8	Texas	Big 12
9	Baylor	Big 12
9	North Carolina St.	ACC
9	Ole Miss	SEC
9	St. John’s	Big East
10	Alabama	SEC
10	Syracuse	ACC
10	Nebraska	Big Ten
10	Florida	SEC
11	Oklahoma	Big 12
11	UNC Greensboro	SoCon
11	Clemson	ACC
11	Indiana	Big Ten
11	Central Florida	American
11	Utah St.	Mtn West
12	Wofford	SoCon
12	Lipscomb	Atlantic Sun
12	Virginia Commonwealth	Atlantic 10
12	Hofstra	Colonial
13	New Mexico St.	WAC
13	Belmont	Ohio Valley
13	Yale	Ivy
13	Vermont	America East
14	Old Dominion	CUSA
14	South Dakota St.	Summit
14	Northern Kentucky	Horizon
14	UC Irvine	Big West
15	Montana	Big Sky
15	Texas St.	Sun Belt
15	Loyola (Chi)	Missouri Valley
15	Radford	Big South
16	Colgate	Patriot
16	Sam Houston St.	Southland
16	Rider	Metro Atlantic
16	Fairleigh Dickinson	Northeast
16	Texas Southern	Southwestern
16	Norfolk St.	Mideastern

First 4 Out

Butler

Temple

Creighton

Minnesota

Next 4 Out

Saint Mary’s

Toledo

San Francisco

Furman

Last 4 In

Clemson

Indiana

Central Florida

Utah St.

Last 4 Byes

Nebraska

Florida

Oklahoma

UNC Greensboro

 

First Four Games in Dayton

Clemson vs. Utah St.

Indiana vs. Central Florida

Rider vs. Norfolk St.

Fairleigh-Dickinson vs. Texas Southern

 

Adjustments Based on Selection Committee’s Reveal

Beginning today, some of our bracketology seedings have been affected by our reaction to the NCAA Selection Committee’s interpretation of the same data we look at.  As the season continues and we have time to look at each resume, we will begin to analyze the teams more based on what we believe the Selection Committee thinks rather than determining which teams deserve to be in the field based on the NCAA’s selection criteria.

When all is said and done, the Committee members vote on the teams in the dance, and human bias obviously comes into play.  Like the best political spin doctors, the committee can always spin the data in favor of teams they prefer to be in the field and then spin the data in opposition to teams they excluded.

 

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For Friday, February 8, 2019

February 8, 2019

Seed	SCHOOL	Conf.
1	Virginia	ACC
1	Gonzaga	West Coast
1	Duke	ACC
1	Tennessee	SEC
2	Kentucky	SEC
2	Michigan	Big Ten
2	North Carolina	ACC
2	Michigan St.	Big Ten
3	Virginia Tech	ACC
3	Purdue	Big Ten
3	Houston	American Athletic
3	Wisconsin	Big Ten
4	Iowa St.	Big 12
4	Louisville	ACC
4	Nevada	Mtn West
4	Texas Tech	Big 12
5	LSU	SEC
5	Kansas	Big 12
5	Villanova	Big East
5	Auburn	SEC
6	Marquette	Big East
6	Maryland	Big Ten
6	Iowa	Big Ten
6	Cincinnati	American Athletic
7	Washington	Pac-12
7	Mississippi St.	SEC
7	Florida St.	ACC
7	Kansas St.	Big 12
8	Baylor	Big 12
8	Utah St.	Mtn West
8	North Carolina St.	ACC
8	Oklahoma	Big 12
9	Nebraska	Big Ten
9	Ohio St.	Big Ten
9	Texas	Big 12
9	St. John’s	Big East
10	TCU	Big 12
10	Ole Miss	SEC
10	Florida	SEC
10	Clemson	ACC
11	Alabama	SEC
11	Central Florida	American Athletic
11	Indiana	Big Ten
11	VCU	Atlantic 10
11	Syracuse	ACC
11	Temple	American Athletic
12	Buffalo	MAC
12	Wofford	SoCon
12	Lipscomb	Atl Sun
12	Hofstra	Colonial
13	New Mexico St.	WAC
13	Belmont	Ohio Valley
13	Vermont	America East
13	Yale	Ivy League
14	Old Dominion	C-USA
14	South Dakota St.	Summit League
14	Montana	Big Sky
14	Northern Kentucky	Horizon
15	Texas St.	Sun Belt
15	UC Irvine	Big West
15	Radford	Big South
15	Loyola (Chi)	MVC
16	Bucknell	Patriot
16	Sam Houston	Southland
16	Rider	Metro Atlantic
16	Robert Morris	Northeast
16	Prairie View	SWAC
16	Norfolk St.	MEAC

First 4 Out

Minnesota

Creighton

Butler

Saint Mary’s

Next 4 Out

Davidson

UNC Greensboro

San Francisco

Toledo

Last 4 Byes

Florida

Clemson

Alabama

Central Florida

Last 4 In

Indiana

VCU

Syracuse

Temple

In Dayton

Indiana vs. Temple

Virginia Commonwealth vs. Syracuse

Rider vs. Norfolk St.

Prairie View vs. Robert Morris

 

Note: The Selection Committee will issue its original report for the top 4 seeds in each region on Saturday.  Based on what they reveal, the PiRates may or may not adjust their Bracketology report beginning Monday.

 

Note 2: Buffalo, Wofford, and Lipscomb  project as much higher seeds than #12, but in order to place no at-large team lower than #11, the three had to be lowered to #12.

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For Friday, February 1, 2019

February 1

Seed	SCHOOL	Conf.
1	Virginia	ACC
1	Gonzaga	WCC
1	Duke	ACC
1	Michigan	Big Ten
2	Tennessee	SEC
2	Michigan St.	Big Ten
2	Kentucky	SEC
2	Houston	AAC
3	North Carolina	ACC
3	Virginia Tech	ACC
3	Purdue	Big Ten
3	Louisville	ACC
4	Wisconsin	Big Ten
4	Iowa St.	Big 12
4	Texas Tech	Big 12
4	LSU	SEC
5	Nevada	MWC
5	Marquette	Big East
5	Buffalo	MAC
5	Kansas	Big 12
6	Villanova	Big East
6	Maryland	Big Ten
6	Cincinnati	AAC
6	Auburn	SEC
7	North Carolina St.	ACC
7	Mississippi St.	SEC
7	Iowa	Big Ten
7	Nebraska	Big Ten
8	Washington	Pac-12
8	TCU	Big 12
8	Wofford	SoCon
8	Oklahoma	Big 12
9	Florida St.	ACC
9	Baylor	Big 12
9	Kansas St.	Big 12
9	Lipscomb	ASUN
10	Ole Miss	SEC
10	Ohio St.	Big Ten
10	Florida	SEC
10	Utah St.	MWC
11	Texas	Big 12
11	Central Florida	AAC
11	Alabama	SEC
11	St. John’s	Big East
11	Syracuse	ACC
11	San Francisco	WCC
12	Hofstra	CAA
12	Indiana	Big Ten
12	Murray St.	OVC
12	Minnesota	Big Ten
13	Virginia Commonwealth	Atlantic 10
13	Yale	Ivy League
13	Vermont	America East
13	New Mexico St.	WAC
14	Northern Kentucky	Horizon
14	Texas St.	Sun Belt
14	South Dakota St.	Summit League
14	North Texas	C-USA
15	Montana	Big Sky
15	Radford	Big South
15	UC Irvine	Big West
15	Loyola (Chi.)	MVC
16	Lehigh	Patriot
16	Abilene Christian	Southland
16	Rider	MAAC
16	Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC
16	Prairie View	SWAC
16	Norfolk St.	MEAC

 

First 4 Out

UNC Greensboro

Saint Mary’s

Clemson

Butler

Next 4 Out

Northwestern

Temple

Memphis

Arizona St.

Last 4 In

Alabama

St. John’s

Syracuse

San Francisco

Last 4 Byes

Florida

Utah St.

Texas

Central Florida

First 4 #16 Seeds

Rider

Fairleigh Dickinson

Prairie View

Norfolk St.

 

First Four Games If Season Ended Today

Alabama vs. San Francisco

St. John’s vs. Syracuse

Rider vs. Nofolk St.

Fairleigh-Dickinson vs. Prairie View

 

Bids By Conference

Conference	Bids
Big Ten	10
ACC	8
SEC	8
Big 12	8
Big East	3
AAC	3
MWC	2
West Coast	2
One Bid Leagues	24

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For Monday, January 28, 2019

January 28, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Seed Line

Seed	SCHOOL	Conf.
1	Virginia	ACC
1	Gonzaga	WCC
1	Duke	ACC
1	Michigan	Big Ten
2	Tennessee	SEC
2	Michigan St.	Big Ten
2	Houston	AAC
2	Kentucky	SEC
3	North Carolina	ACC
3	Virginia Tech	ACC
3	Purdue	Big Ten
3	Louisville	ACC
4	Wisconsin	Big Ten
4	Iowa St.	Big 12
4	LSU	SEC
4	Kansas	Big 12
5	Nevada	MWC
5	Texas Tech	Big 12
5	Marquette	Big East
5	Buffalo	MAC
6	Villanova	Big East
6	Maryland	Big Ten
6	Cincinnati	AAC
6	Oklahoma	Big 12
7	Nebraska	Big Ten
7	Auburn	SEC
7	Mississippi St.	SEC
7	TCU	Big 12
8	NC State	ACC
8	Iowa	Big Ten
8	Washington	Pac-12
8	Florida St.	ACC
9	Kansas St.	Big 12
9	Ole Miss	SEC
9	Florida	SEC
9	Ohio St.	Big Ten
10	Utah St.	MWC
10	UCF	AAC
10	Indiana	Big Ten
10	Baylor	Big 12
11	Texas	Big 12
11	Alabama	SEC
11	San Francisco	WCC
11	Syracuse	ACC
11	St. John’s	Big East
11	Butler	Big East
12	Wofford	SoCon
12	Lipscomb	ASUN
12	Hofstra	CAA
12	Murray St.	OVC
13	VCU	Atlantic 10
13	Yale	Ivy League
13	New Mexico St.	WAC
13	Vermont	America East
14	Northern Ky.	Horizon
14	Texas St.	Sun Belt
14	North Texas	C-USA
14	South Dakota St.	Summit League
15	Radford	Big South
15	Montana	Big Sky
15	Drake	MVC
15	UC Irvine	Big West
16	Lehigh	Patriot
16	Rider	MAAC
16	Abilene Christian	Southland
16	St. Francis (NY)	NEC
16	Texas Southern	SWAC
16	Norfolk St.	MEAC

 

Last Four IN

San Francisco

Syracuse

St. John’s

Butler

USF vs. Butler and Syracuse vs. St. John’s in Dayton First Four

 

Last Four BYES

Indiana

Baylor

Texas

Alabama

 

First Four OUT

Minnesota

UNC-Greensboro

Memphis

Saint Mary’s

 

Next Four OUT

Northwestern

Creighton

Clemson

Temple

 

#16 Seeds Headed to Dayton

Abilene Christian vs. Norfolk St.

St. Francis (NY) vs. Texas Southern

 

Bids By Conference

Conference	Bids
Big Ten	9
ACC	8
SEC	8
Big 12	8
Big East	4
AAC	3
MWC	2
West Coast	2
One Bid Leagues	24

 

The Top Mid-Majors

We include the West Coast and Mountain West Conferences to be Major Conferences.

Top Mid-Majors
5	Buffalo	MAC
12	Wofford	SoCon
12	Lipscomb	ASUN
12	Hofstra	CAA

 

Changes to This Week’s Bracketology Report 

Beginning this week, we move the last four at-large seeds to the 11-seed line, because in almost every year in the past, the last four in the tournament were seeded #11.  Personally, we feel like this is a disservice to some of the #12 mid-major seeds.  Hofstra, Lipscomb, and Wofford are more deserving of higher seeds that where we have placed them on the 12-line, but moving any of the three upward would force us to move one of the last four at-large teams below the 11-seed line.

At this point in the season, we are still almost entirely basing our seedings on the NCAA Net Ratings.  Once the season progresses into Mid-February and then March, we will begin to add “politics” into our selections as we believe the Selection Committee will do.  It is our opinion that eventually, a second Pac-12 team will be added to the field even if it is not deserving.  The Committee will find a way to explain why they artificially added one of the Arizona’s or Oregon, using the exact opposite logic they will use to explain why a more deserving team from a Mid-Major conference did not get in.

At this point in the season, there are teams with nice NET ratings that are buried deep in their own conference standings.

In the ACC, Florida State is currently tied for 8th place in the league with a 3-4 record, while Pittsburgh is in 11th place at 2-5.  Could the Committee chose an ACC team that goes 7-11 in league play?  Syracuse made the field last year at 8-10.

Oklahoma and Texas are currently tied for 7th in the Big 12 with 3-4 conference records.  They both got in the field last year at 8-10, and this year’s league race is tight.  12-6 could earn a piece of the league title, and we could see the top 8 teams finishing within 4 games of each other, maybe even just 3 games.

The Big East is in a bit of trouble, even with the reigning NCAA Champion residing in this league.  Villanova (7-0) and Marquette (7-1) have lapped the field.  No other team has a break-even conference record.  Georgetown, Providence, and Creighton are each 3-4.  St. John’s, Seton Hall, and Butler are all 3-5.  This league has sent teams with .500 conference records in recent years, but not an 8-10 team.

The Big Ten ranks at the top of the food chain this year, so it should be a given that a 9-9 conference record will get in the Dance.  This is quite a change from last year, where Nebraska did not get in after going 13-5 in the league.  Take note that the last Big Ten team to get into the NCAA Tournament with an 8-10 conference record was Minnesota in 2013.

The Mountain West has been a multiple-bid league for all but one year in recent history, and the league has sent as many as five teams in a season in this past decade.  With Nevada contending for a top 10 finish, and with Utah State staying in good graces with the NET Ratings, this looks like a two-bid league with an outside chance for a third team to get in if somebody other than Nevada or Utah State wins the automatic bid.  Fresno State, UNLV, and Boise State have the talent to win the conference tournament, and you can never rule out San Diego State with their defense from winning three games in three days.

About the Pac-12: Washington has taken command of the conference race by starting 7-0 in the league.  Mike Hopkins is doing his best Jim Boeheim impersonation in Seattle.  However, it is not like the rest of the league is chopped liver.  Down years from Oregon and UCLA have hurt the league, but USC and Arizona State are good enough to make the tournament, and Arizona has talent that needs to gel.  We cannot see any scenario where only one team makes the Big Dance from the “League of Champions.”  Expect at least two and maybe three Pac-12 teams to get into the field.

Auburn was ranked #7 in the nation earlier this year, but the Tigers are fading into the bottom half of the SEC standings.  At 2-4 in the league, Auburn is tied for 9th in the league. We see no more than 8 SEC teams making the field, and it could be just 7, so the Tigers have a lot of work to do to secure a spot in the field.  Their next three games are at home, so they could be 5-4 in the league when they go to LSU on February 9.

A stranger team in the SEC is South Carolina.  The Gamecocks are 5-1 in the league, but 5-8 outside of league play.  At 10-9, they do not show up favorably in the NET ratings, but this team could easily go 12-6 or better in the SEC.  USC already has wins over Auburn, Mississippi State, and Florida, the last coming in Gainesville.  A win tomorrow night over #1 Tennessee would make it awfully tough on the Selection Committee to ignore a team that would be 6-1 in the SEC with four wins over ranked opponents.  If USC wins tomorrow night, they have a path to 14-4 in the SEC, and 19-12 overall before the conference tournament begins.  Frank Martin can squeeze wins out of lesser talent, and with a roster stacked with 3-star players, he must be given credit for beating teams on the road that had 4-star and 5-star players on their roster.

We treat the West Coast Conference as a major conference because Gonzaga has been a 1-seed multiple times, and Saint Mary’s has been in the Elite 8.  We won’t include San Francisco’s past national championships and additional Final Four seasons, because that was another era.  However, the Dons may be on the precipice of earning an at-large bid this year.  Saint Mary’s is a bit down this year, but don’t count the Gaels out yet.  And, with BYU and San Diego looking tough this year, five strong teams, with the cream of the crop being a top 5 squad, means the WCC should be a multiple bid league again in 2019.

 

Coming tomorrow: We take an in-depth look at the top Mid-Major teams and conference races.  We hope if you are a basketball fanatic that you have taken time to watch some outstanding and exciting games.  There are multiple Mid-Major conferences with must-see competition.

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For Friday, January 25, 2019

January 25, 2019

Seed Line

Seed	SCHOOL	Conf.
1	Virginia	ACC
1	Duke	ACC
1	Michigan St.	Big Ten
1	Gonzaga	West Coast
2	Tennessee	SEC
2	Michigan	Big Ten
2	Houston	American
2	Kentucky	SEC
3	North Carolina	ACC
3	Purdue	Big Ten
3	Virginia Tech	ACC
3	LSU	SEC
4	Louisville	ACC
4	Kansas	Big 12
4	Wisconsin	Big Ten
4	Iowa St.	Big 12
5	Texas Tech	Big 12
5	Nevada	Mountain West
5	Maryland	Big Ten
5	Marquette	Big East
6	Nebraska	Big Ten
6	Iowa	Big Ten
6	Buffalo	MAC
6	Villanova	Big East
7	Auburn	SEC
7	Wofford	Southern
7	NC State	ACC
7	TCU	Big 12
8	Oklahoma	Big 12
8	Kansas St.	Big 12
8	Mississippi St.	SEC
8	Ole Miss	SEC
9	Cincinnati	American
9	Florida St.	ACC
9	UCF	American
9	Indiana	Big Ten
10	Florida	SEC
10	Utah St.	Mountain West
10	Washington	Pac-12
10	St. John’s (NY)	Big East
11	Alabama	SEC
11	San Francisco	West Coast
11	Texas	Big 12
11	Murray St.	Ohio Valley
12	Lipscomb	ASUN
12	Ohio St.	Big Ten
12	Butler	Big East
12	Syracuse	ACC
12	Arizona	Pac-12
12	Hofstra	Colonial
13	VCU	Atlantic 10
13	Yale	Ivy
13	New Mexico St.	WAC
13	North Texas	CUSA
14	Radford	Big South
14	Vermont	America East
14	Texas St.	Sun Belt
14	Northern Ky.	Horizon
15	Montana	Big Sky
15	South Dakota St.	Summit
15	Loyola Chicago	Missouri Valley
15	UC Irvine	Big West
16	Colgate	Patriot
16	Rider	Metro Atlantic
16	Abilene Christian	Southland
16	Texas Southern	SWAC
16	St. Francis Brooklyn	Northeast
16	N.C. A&T	MEAC

 

First 4 Out
Baylor
Northwestern
Seton Hall
Pittsburgh
Next 4 Out
Clemson
Creighton
Temple
UNC Greensboro
Last 4 In
Ohio St.
Butler
Syracuse
Arizona
Last 4 Byes
St. John’s (NY)
Alabama
San Francisco
Texas
First 4 #16 Seeds
Abilene Christian
Texas Southern
St. Francis Brooklyn
N.C. A&T
5 Potential At-large Mid-Majors
UNC-Greensboro
Liberty
Saint Mary’s
Furman

 

Multiple Bid Leagues

Conference	Bids
Big Ten	9
ACC	8
SEC	8
Big 12	7
Big East	4
AAC	3
MWC	2
Pac-12	2
West Coast	2

 

Coming Next Week

Monday: New Ratings and Bracketology

Tuesday: A closer look at the one-bid leagues and their top competitors

Friday: New Ratings and Bracketology

 

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For Monday, January 21, 2019

January 21, 2019

Seed	SCHOOL	Conf.
1	Virginia	ACC
1	Duke	ACC
1	Gonzaga	West Coast
1	Tennessee	SEC
2	Michigan St.	Big Ten
2	Michigan	Big Ten
2	Houston	AAC
2	Kentucky	SEC
3	Virginia Tech	ACC
3	Buffalo	MAC
3	Texas Tech	Big 12
3	North Carolina	ACC
4	Nebraska	Big Ten
4	LSU	SEC
4	Purdue	Big Ten
4	Louisville	ACC
5	Wisconsin	Big Ten
5	Iowa St.	Big 12
5	Kansas	Big 12
5	Maryland	Big Ten
6	Marquette	Big East
6	Nevada	MWC
6	Auburn	SEC
6	Iowa	Big Ten
7	Ole Miss	SEC
7	NC State	ACC
7	Mississippi St.	SEC
7	Villanova	Big East
8	Wofford	Southern
8	Oklahoma	Big 12
8	TCU	Big 12
8	Cincinnati	AAC
9	Indiana	Big Ten
9	Kansas St.	Big 12
9	Florida	SEC
9	Washington	Pac-12
10	UCF	AAC
10	San Francisco	West Coast
10	Ohio St.	Big Ten
10	Florida St.	ACC
11	Utah St.	MWC
11	St. John’s (NY)	Big East
11	Butler	Big East
11	Murray St.	OVC
12	Texas	Big 12
12	Lipscomb	ASUN
12	Syracuse	ACC
12	Alabama	SEC
12	VCU	Atlantic 10
12	Arizona	Pac-12
13	Hofstra	Colonial
13	Vermont	America East
13	Yale	Ivy
13	New Mexico St.	WAC
14	North Texas	C-USA
14	Radford	Big South
14	Loyola Chicago	MVC
14	Texas St.	Sun Belt
15	Northern Ky.	Horizon
15	Montana	Big Sky
15	South Dakota St.	Summit
15	UC Irvine	Big West
16	Colgate	Patriot
16	Rider	Metro Atlantic
16	Abilene Christian	Southland
16	Texas Southern	SWAC
16	Fairleigh Dickinson	Northeast
16	N.C. A&T	MEAC

First Four Out

Saint Mary’s

Baylor

Pittsburgh

Seton Hall

 

Next Four Out

Clemson

Northwestern

Temple

Creighton

 

Last 4 In

Texas

Syracuse

Alabama

Arizona

Dayton Matchups

Texas vs. Arizona

Syracuse vs. Alabama

 

Last 4 Byes

Ohio St.

Florida St.

St. John’s

Butler

 

Last 4 #16 Seeds (Dayton Bound)

Abilene Christian

Texas Southern

Fairleigh Dickinson

N.C. A&T

 

Dayton Matchups

Abilene Christian vs. North Carolina A&T

Texas Southern vs. Fairleigh Dickinson

 

5 Mid-Major Teams That Should Be On The Bubble (but probably would be excluded)

Liberty

UNC Greensboro

Toledo

Furman

Fresno St.

 

Multiple Bids By Conference

Conference	Bids
Big Ten	9
ACC	8
SEC	8
Big 12	7
Big East	4
AAC	3
MWC	2
Pac-12	2
West Coast	2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Spreads For NCAA Tournament Games of Wed., March 14

Higher Seed	Lower Seed	Spread
UNC-Central	Texas Southern	-2.8
Arizona St.	Syracuse	1.9

Tournament Schedule

All Times Eastern Daylight

Wednesday, Mar 14, 2018
TIME	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	City	TV
6:40 PM	16 UNC-Central	16 Texas Southern	Dayton, OH	truTV
9:10 PM	11 Arizona St.	11 Syracuse	Dayton, OH	truTV

 

Thursday, Mar 15, 2018
TIME	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	City	TV
12:15 PM	7 Rhode Island	10 Oklahoma	Pittsburgh	CBS
12:40 PM	3 Tennessee	14 Wright St.	Dallas	truTV
1:30 PM	4 Gonzaga	13 UNC-Greensboro	Boise, ID	TNT
2:00 PM	1 Kansas	16 Penn	Wichita, KS	TBS
2:45 PM	2 Duke	15 Iona	Pittsburgh	CBS
3:10 PM	6 Miami (Fla.)	11 Loyola (Chi.)	Dallas	truTV
4:00 PM	5 Ohio St.	12 South Dakota St.	Boise, ID	TNT
4:30 PM	8 Seton Hall	9 North Carolina St.	Wichita, KS	TBS
6:50 PM	1 Villanova	16 Radford	Pittsburgh	TNT
7:10 PM	5 Kentucky	12 Davidson	Boise, ID	CBS
7:20 PM	6 Houston	11 San Diego St	Wichita, KS	TBS
7:27 PM	3 Texas Tech	14 Stephen F. Austin	Dallas	truTV
9:20 PM	8 Virginia Tech	9 Alabama	Pittsburgh	TNT
9:40 PM	4 Arizona	13 Buffalo	Boise, ID	CBS
9:50 PM	3 Michigan	14 Montana	Wichita, KS	TBS
9:57 PM	6 Florida	11 St. Bonaventure	Dallas	truTV

 

Friday, Mar 16, 2018
TIME	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	City	TV
12:15 PM	7 Texas A&M	10 Providence	Charlotte	CBS
12:40 PM	2 Purdue	15 Cal St. Fullerton	Detroit	truTV
1:30 PM	4 Wichita St.	13 Marshall	San Diego	TNT
2:00 PM	2 Cincinnati	15 Georgia St.	Nashville	TBS
2:45 PM	2 North Carolina	15 Lipscomb	Charlotte	CBS
3:10 PM	7 Arkansas	10 Butler	Detroit	truTV
4:00 PM	5 West Virginia	12 Murray St.	San Diego	TNT
4:30 PM	7 Nevada	10 Texas	Nashville	TBS
6:50 PM	8 Creighton	9 Kansas St.	Charlotte	TNT
7:10 PM	3 Michigan St.	14 Bucknell	Detroit	CBS
7:20 PM	1 Xavier	16 UNCC/Tex Sou.	Nashville	TBS
7:27 PM	4 Auburn	13 Charleston	San Diego	truTV
9:20 PM	1 Virginia	16 MD-Baltimore Co.	Charlotte	TNT
9:40 PM	6 TCU	11 Ariz.St./Syracuse	Detroit	CBS
9:50 PM	8 Missouri	9 Florida St.	Nashville	TBS
9:57 PM	5 Clemson	12 New Mexico St.	San Diego	truTV

 

Note: Virginia’s outstanding 6th Man De’Andre Hunter is out for the season, and this will knock the Cavaliers down a few notches in our criteria.  If you have not submitted your brackets yet, you might take this into consideration, as the Cavaliers have lost a potent weapon that could play anywhere on the floor.  He was to Virginia what John Havlicek was to the Boston Celtics in the 1960’s, the 6th man that was the secret sauce of Red Auerbach’s extended success.  Without Hunter, Virginia reverts back to a great defensive team that lacks enough offensive power to beat an athletic opponent the likes of Arizona or Cincinnati.  Hunter was instrumental in helping the Cavs secure two wins over Syracuse, and road wins against Miami and Virginia Tech.

 

The PiRates New Criteria Shows Beginner’s Luck

Did you read our lengthy piece yesterday pertaining to our brand new paradigm?  The PiRates scrapped our old, archaic system of picking brackets and debuted our new mostly statistical metric based criteria.

We were not sure how successful it might be in the first year of its existence, and we are sure we will need to tweak it some in the ensuing years, but we started out with a bang last night.

We hit both games and basically called how St. Bonaventure would send the Sons of Westwood home to SoCal.  We wrote that we believed the Bonnies would force turnovers on the Bruins, which would be the deciding factor in the game, and it was spot on.

We are reminded that a broken watch is also correct twice a day.

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings’ Bracket Gurus’ Final Predictions For the Field of 68

That Darn Davidson
Call it the Steph Curry Effect. It would happen that the one bid-stealing team in the Conference Tournament part of March Madness would be a team from a conference that played its championship game on Selection Sunday afternoon.

 
At least the Selection Committee had to deal with this contingency as well. If our Bracket Gurus know their stuff, they believe that bubble burst popping sound you just heard emanated from Moraga, California, and Saint Mary’s just became a number one seed in the NIT.

What about the other near miss teams?  Our gurus believe (but not unanimously) the bubbles had already burst on Louisville, Middle Tennessee State, Syracuse, Marquette, Baylor, Notre Dame, and Oklahoma St.

Now, with Davidson getting in with the automatic bid, some non-guru bracketologists might simple place the Wildcats in the NCAA Tournament and remove A-10 member St. Bonaventure. It doesn’t work like that. All of our Gurus already locked the Bonnies into the field. Saint Mary’s had the bottom score of the 68 teams, and with the Gaels sulking as they prepare to host an NIT game (or if our Gurus miss), now the #68 team is Arizona St. The Sun Devils are not really affected by the upset in D.C., if our Gurus have it right. They were already headed to Dayton as one of the Last Four in.

The team other than Saint Mary’s that suffered from Davidson’s win is the former last team in with a bye. USC was the number 64 team on the seed line, but after Davidson removed Saint Mary’s from the 11-seed line, it knocked the Trojans down to the fourth weakest Guru score. Thus, the Trojans are picked to join Arizona State, St. Bonaventure, and Texas in First Four games in Dayton.

Our Gurus had a difficult time narrowing the field of 68 from a field of 71. Word leaked out of the Selection Committee early Sunday morning, that all but one at-large spot had been determined prior to any games this afternoon. Our Gurus took that as a slap across 14 faces. If the Committee had it down to 69, then they could too. Between 8AM and Noon Eastern Time today, the Gurus agreed to vote Louisville, Middle Tennessee St., Marquette, and Syracuse off the Madness Island. Pending the outcome of the Davidson-Rhode Island game, the Gurus had the teams selected. A couple of late games might have affected a couple of seeds, as Cincinnati and Tennessee could swap with a Volunteer win and Bearcat loss. Tennessee lost to Kentucky in the SEC Championship, so Cincinnati should stay where they are, win or lose in the AAC Championship Game, which is about to tip off.
Since we are going to press before the American Athletic Conference Tournament ends, we told our Gurus to assume that Cincinnati wins the game and keeps their high seed.  There is a chance a Cinti loss could elevate another team from three to two seed, but we believe the Committee doesn’t want to mess with this contingency this late in the game.  We figured that time was more of the essence than waiting for the last game to finish.
So, with that in mind, here is the PiRate Ratings Bracket Gurus’ Final Prediction. If we get 68 out of 68 again this year, it will be a minor miracle. It wasn’t easy for the Gurus to come close to a consensus. Middle Tennessee, Louisville, Syracuse, Marquette, and Baylor all received at least one vote out of 14 Guru lists. Saint Mary’s, Arizona St., and Texas were left off at least 3 of the 14 ballots.

 

Seed	Team	Conference
1	Virginia	ACC
1	Villanova	B-EAST
1	Xavier	B-EAST
1	Kansas	B12
2	Duke	ACC
2	Purdue	B-TEN
2	North Carolina	ACC
2	Cincinnati	AAC
3	Michigan St.	B-TEN
3	Tennessee	SEC
3	Michigan	B-TEN
3	Auburn	SEC
4	West Virginia	B12
4	Arizona	PAC-12
4	Texas Tech	B12
4	Wichita St.	AAC
5	Clemson	ACC
5	Gonzaga	WCC
5	Kentucky	SEC
5	Ohio St.	B-TEN
6	Houston	AAC
6	Florida	SEC
6	Miami (Fla.)	ACC
6	Arkansas	SEC
7	Texas A&M	SEC
7	TCU	B12
7	Rhode Island	A-10
7	Seton Hall	B-EAST
8	Nevada	MWC
8	Virginia Tech	ACC
8	Missouri	SEC
8	Providence	B-EAST
9	Alabama	SEC
9	Butler	B-EAST
9	Florida St.	ACC
9	Creighton	B-EAST
10	North Carolina St.	ACC
10	Kansas St.	B12
10	UCLA	PAC-12
10	Oklahoma	B12
11	USC	PAC-12
11	Texas	B12
11	St. Bonaventure	A-10
11	Arizona St.	PAC-12
11	Loyola (Chi.)	MVC
11	San Diego St.	MWC
12	New Mexico St.	WAC
12	South Dakota St.	SUMMIT
12	Buffalo	MAC
12	Davidson	A-10
13	Murray St.	OVC
13	UNC-Greensboro	SOCON
13	Marshall	CUSA
13	Charleston	CAA
14	Bucknell	PATRIOT
14	Montana	B-SKY
14	Wright St.	HORIZON
14	Georgia St./UT-Arlington	SBC
15	Stephen F. Austin	SLC
15	Lipscomb	A-SUN
15	Iona	MAAC
15	Penn	IVY
16	MD-Baltimore Co.	A-EAST
16	Cal St. Fullerton	B-WEST
16	Long Island	NEC
16	Radford	B-SOUTH
16	UNC-Central	MEAC
16	Texas Southern	SWAC

Our Gurus’ Additional Picks

First Four Round in Dayton

11-seed line: Texas vs. Arizona St.

11-seed line: USC vs. St. Bonaventure

16-seed line: Long Island vs. Texas Southern

16-seed line: Radford vs. UNC-Central

 

Last 4 Byes

61. North Carolina St.

62. Kansas St.

63. UCLA

64. Oklahoma

 

First Four Out

69. Saint Mary’s

70. Middle Tennessee St.

71. Louisville

72. Syracuse