PiRate Ratings Spreads For NCAA Tournament Games of Wed., March 14

Higher Seed	Lower Seed	Spread
UNC-Central	Texas Southern	-2.8
Arizona St.	Syracuse	1.9

Tournament Schedule

All Times Eastern Daylight

Wednesday, Mar 14, 2018
TIME	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	City	TV
6:40 PM	16 UNC-Central	16 Texas Southern	Dayton, OH	truTV
9:10 PM	11 Arizona St.	11 Syracuse	Dayton, OH	truTV

 

Thursday, Mar 15, 2018
TIME	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	City	TV
12:15 PM	7 Rhode Island	10 Oklahoma	Pittsburgh	CBS
12:40 PM	3 Tennessee	14 Wright St.	Dallas	truTV
1:30 PM	4 Gonzaga	13 UNC-Greensboro	Boise, ID	TNT
2:00 PM	1 Kansas	16 Penn	Wichita, KS	TBS
2:45 PM	2 Duke	15 Iona	Pittsburgh	CBS
3:10 PM	6 Miami (Fla.)	11 Loyola (Chi.)	Dallas	truTV
4:00 PM	5 Ohio St.	12 South Dakota St.	Boise, ID	TNT
4:30 PM	8 Seton Hall	9 North Carolina St.	Wichita, KS	TBS
6:50 PM	1 Villanova	16 Radford	Pittsburgh	TNT
7:10 PM	5 Kentucky	12 Davidson	Boise, ID	CBS
7:20 PM	6 Houston	11 San Diego St	Wichita, KS	TBS
7:27 PM	3 Texas Tech	14 Stephen F. Austin	Dallas	truTV
9:20 PM	8 Virginia Tech	9 Alabama	Pittsburgh	TNT
9:40 PM	4 Arizona	13 Buffalo	Boise, ID	CBS
9:50 PM	3 Michigan	14 Montana	Wichita, KS	TBS
9:57 PM	6 Florida	11 St. Bonaventure	Dallas	truTV

 

Friday, Mar 16, 2018
TIME	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	City	TV
12:15 PM	7 Texas A&M	10 Providence	Charlotte	CBS
12:40 PM	2 Purdue	15 Cal St. Fullerton	Detroit	truTV
1:30 PM	4 Wichita St.	13 Marshall	San Diego	TNT
2:00 PM	2 Cincinnati	15 Georgia St.	Nashville	TBS
2:45 PM	2 North Carolina	15 Lipscomb	Charlotte	CBS
3:10 PM	7 Arkansas	10 Butler	Detroit	truTV
4:00 PM	5 West Virginia	12 Murray St.	San Diego	TNT
4:30 PM	7 Nevada	10 Texas	Nashville	TBS
6:50 PM	8 Creighton	9 Kansas St.	Charlotte	TNT
7:10 PM	3 Michigan St.	14 Bucknell	Detroit	CBS
7:20 PM	1 Xavier	16 UNCC/Tex Sou.	Nashville	TBS
7:27 PM	4 Auburn	13 Charleston	San Diego	truTV
9:20 PM	1 Virginia	16 MD-Baltimore Co.	Charlotte	TNT
9:40 PM	6 TCU	11 Ariz.St./Syracuse	Detroit	CBS
9:50 PM	8 Missouri	9 Florida St.	Nashville	TBS
9:57 PM	5 Clemson	12 New Mexico St.	San Diego	truTV

 

Note: Virginia’s outstanding 6th Man De’Andre Hunter is out for the season, and this will knock the Cavaliers down a few notches in our criteria.  If you have not submitted your brackets yet, you might take this into consideration, as the Cavaliers have lost a potent weapon that could play anywhere on the floor.  He was to Virginia what John Havlicek was to the Boston Celtics in the 1960’s, the 6th man that was the secret sauce of Red Auerbach’s extended success.  Without Hunter, Virginia reverts back to a great defensive team that lacks enough offensive power to beat an athletic opponent the likes of Arizona or Cincinnati.  Hunter was instrumental in helping the Cavs secure two wins over Syracuse, and road wins against Miami and Virginia Tech.

 

The PiRates New Criteria Shows Beginner’s Luck

Did you read our lengthy piece yesterday pertaining to our brand new paradigm?  The PiRates scrapped our old, archaic system of picking brackets and debuted our new mostly statistical metric based criteria.

We were not sure how successful it might be in the first year of its existence, and we are sure we will need to tweak it some in the ensuing years, but we started out with a bang last night.

We hit both games and basically called how St. Bonaventure would send the Sons of Westwood home to SoCal.  We wrote that we believed the Bonnies would force turnovers on the Bruins, which would be the deciding factor in the game, and it was spot on.

We are reminded that a broken watch is also correct twice a day.

 

 

 

 

 

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PiRate Ratings’ Bracket Gurus’ Final Predictions For the Field of 68

That Darn Davidson
Call it the Steph Curry Effect. It would happen that the one bid-stealing team in the Conference Tournament part of March Madness would be a team from a conference that played its championship game on Selection Sunday afternoon.

 
At least the Selection Committee had to deal with this contingency as well. If our Bracket Gurus know their stuff, they believe that bubble burst popping sound you just heard emanated from Moraga, California, and Saint Mary’s just became a number one seed in the NIT.

What about the other near miss teams?  Our gurus believe (but not unanimously) the bubbles had already burst on Louisville, Middle Tennessee State, Syracuse, Marquette, Baylor, Notre Dame, and Oklahoma St.

Now, with Davidson getting in with the automatic bid, some non-guru bracketologists might simple place the Wildcats in the NCAA Tournament and remove A-10 member St. Bonaventure. It doesn’t work like that. All of our Gurus already locked the Bonnies into the field. Saint Mary’s had the bottom score of the 68 teams, and with the Gaels sulking as they prepare to host an NIT game (or if our Gurus miss), now the #68 team is Arizona St. The Sun Devils are not really affected by the upset in D.C., if our Gurus have it right. They were already headed to Dayton as one of the Last Four in.

The team other than Saint Mary’s that suffered from Davidson’s win is the former last team in with a bye. USC was the number 64 team on the seed line, but after Davidson removed Saint Mary’s from the 11-seed line, it knocked the Trojans down to the fourth weakest Guru score. Thus, the Trojans are picked to join Arizona State, St. Bonaventure, and Texas in First Four games in Dayton.

Our Gurus had a difficult time narrowing the field of 68 from a field of 71. Word leaked out of the Selection Committee early Sunday morning, that all but one at-large spot had been determined prior to any games this afternoon. Our Gurus took that as a slap across 14 faces. If the Committee had it down to 69, then they could too. Between 8AM and Noon Eastern Time today, the Gurus agreed to vote Louisville, Middle Tennessee St., Marquette, and Syracuse off the Madness Island. Pending the outcome of the Davidson-Rhode Island game, the Gurus had the teams selected. A couple of late games might have affected a couple of seeds, as Cincinnati and Tennessee could swap with a Volunteer win and Bearcat loss. Tennessee lost to Kentucky in the SEC Championship, so Cincinnati should stay where they are, win or lose in the AAC Championship Game, which is about to tip off.
Since we are going to press before the American Athletic Conference Tournament ends, we told our Gurus to assume that Cincinnati wins the game and keeps their high seed.  There is a chance a Cinti loss could elevate another team from three to two seed, but we believe the Committee doesn’t want to mess with this contingency this late in the game.  We figured that time was more of the essence than waiting for the last game to finish.
So, with that in mind, here is the PiRate Ratings Bracket Gurus’ Final Prediction. If we get 68 out of 68 again this year, it will be a minor miracle. It wasn’t easy for the Gurus to come close to a consensus. Middle Tennessee, Louisville, Syracuse, Marquette, and Baylor all received at least one vote out of 14 Guru lists. Saint Mary’s, Arizona St., and Texas were left off at least 3 of the 14 ballots.

 

Seed	Team	Conference
1	Virginia	ACC
1	Villanova	B-EAST
1	Xavier	B-EAST
1	Kansas	B12
2	Duke	ACC
2	Purdue	B-TEN
2	North Carolina	ACC
2	Cincinnati	AAC
3	Michigan St.	B-TEN
3	Tennessee	SEC
3	Michigan	B-TEN
3	Auburn	SEC
4	West Virginia	B12
4	Arizona	PAC-12
4	Texas Tech	B12
4	Wichita St.	AAC
5	Clemson	ACC
5	Gonzaga	WCC
5	Kentucky	SEC
5	Ohio St.	B-TEN
6	Houston	AAC
6	Florida	SEC
6	Miami (Fla.)	ACC
6	Arkansas	SEC
7	Texas A&M	SEC
7	TCU	B12
7	Rhode Island	A-10
7	Seton Hall	B-EAST
8	Nevada	MWC
8	Virginia Tech	ACC
8	Missouri	SEC
8	Providence	B-EAST
9	Alabama	SEC
9	Butler	B-EAST
9	Florida St.	ACC
9	Creighton	B-EAST
10	North Carolina St.	ACC
10	Kansas St.	B12
10	UCLA	PAC-12
10	Oklahoma	B12
11	USC	PAC-12
11	Texas	B12
11	St. Bonaventure	A-10
11	Arizona St.	PAC-12
11	Loyola (Chi.)	MVC
11	San Diego St.	MWC
12	New Mexico St.	WAC
12	South Dakota St.	SUMMIT
12	Buffalo	MAC
12	Davidson	A-10
13	Murray St.	OVC
13	UNC-Greensboro	SOCON
13	Marshall	CUSA
13	Charleston	CAA
14	Bucknell	PATRIOT
14	Montana	B-SKY
14	Wright St.	HORIZON
14	Georgia St./UT-Arlington	SBC
15	Stephen F. Austin	SLC
15	Lipscomb	A-SUN
15	Iona	MAAC
15	Penn	IVY
16	MD-Baltimore Co.	A-EAST
16	Cal St. Fullerton	B-WEST
16	Long Island	NEC
16	Radford	B-SOUTH
16	UNC-Central	MEAC
16	Texas Southern	SWAC

Our Gurus’ Additional Picks

First Four Round in Dayton

11-seed line: Texas vs. Arizona St.

11-seed line: USC vs. St. Bonaventure

16-seed line: Long Island vs. Texas Southern

16-seed line: Radford vs. UNC-Central

 

Last 4 Byes

61. North Carolina St.

62. Kansas St.

63. UCLA

64. Oklahoma

 

First Four Out

69. Saint Mary’s

70. Middle Tennessee St.

71. Louisville

72. Syracuse

PiRate Ratings Conference Tournament Update–March 11 , 2018

Sunday’s PiRate Ratings Spreads for Conference Tournament Championships

Higher Seed	Lower Seed	Spread
Harvard	Penn	-1.4
Rhode Island	Davidson	2.8
Tennessee	Kentucky	1.1
Georgia St.	Texas-Arlington	0.9
Cincinnati	Houston	4.8

 

Sunday’s Conference Championship Schedule

All Times EDT

Time	Conference	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	Ivy League	Harvard	Penn	ESPN2
1:00 PM	Atlantic 10	Rhode Island	Davidson	CBS
1:00 PM	Southeastern	Tennessee	Kentucky	ESPN
2:00 PM	Sun Belt	Georgia St.	Texas-Arlington	ESPN2
3:30 PM	American	Cincinnati	Houston	CBS

Note:  Our Final Bracket Gurus Bracketology prediction will appear on this site roughly 30 minutes after the conclusion of the Atlantic 10 Championship Game.  Davidson is a potential bid-stealer, and until our gurus know whether they have earned an automatic bid or have been eliminated, they cannot fix the Bubble.  There are about a half-dozen teams that will sweat it out during today’s Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament Championship.

Teams That Have Earned Automatic Bids Through Sunday, 6:00 AM EDT

Team	Bid	Conf.	W-L	Avg Score
Arizona	AUTO	P12	27-7	81-71
Bucknell	AUTO	Patriot	25-9	81-73
Buffalo	AUTO	MAC	26-8	85-77
Cal St. Fullerton	AUTO	BWest	20-11	73-72
Charleston	AUTO	CAA	26-7	75-69
Gonzaga	AUTO	WCC	30-4	85-67
Iona	AUTO	MAAC	20-13	80-76
Kansas	AUTO	B12	27-7	82-71
Lipscomb	AUTO	A-SUN	23-9	83-78
Long Island	AUTO	NEC	18-16	78-77
Loyola (Chi.)	AUTO	MVC	28-5	72-62
Marshall	AUTO	CUSA	24-10	84-79
MD-Baltimore Co.	AUTO	AE	24-10	73-71
Michigan	AUTO	BTen	28-7	75-64
Montana	AUTO	BSky	26-7	78-69
Murray St.	AUTO	OVC	26-5	77-66
New Mexico St.	AUTO	WAC	28-5	76-65
Radford	AUTO	B-South	22-12	67-64
San Diego St.	AUTO	MWC	22-10	77-68
South Dakota St.	AUTO	Summit	28-6	85-74
Stephen F. Austin	AUTO	SLC	28-6	78-68
Texas Southern	AUTO	SWAC	15-19	78-80
UNC-Central	AUTO	MEAC	19-15	70-71
UNC-Greensboro	AUTO	SoCon	27-7	74-62
Villanova	AUTO	BE	30-4	87-71
Virginia	AUTO	ACC	31-2	68-53
Wright St.	AUTO	Horizon	25-9	72-66

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Bracketology Late Night Update–March 10-11 , 2018

The Bracket Gurus are burning the midnight oil and pouring more coffee as they try to determine who the NCAA Men’s Basketball Selection Committee will invite into the Dance, and who will not hear the phone ring on Sunday.

At this point last year, most of the gurus were 100% in agreement on about 66 teams with only three teams really fighting for the final two spots.

There is a bit more dissension this season.  There are six teams seriously in the final discussion for three spots, but this will all change is Davidson beats Rhode Island on Sunday.  The Gurus are 100% in agreement in their belief that St. Bonaventure is in, so the Atlantic 10 could move from two to three teams if the Wildcats upset the Rams.

The teams that need to be worried about Davidson winning include Oklahoma State, Arizona State, Saint Mary’s, Louisville, and Middle Tennessee State.  The Gurus are close to eliminating Marquette, Baylor, and Syracuse, but these teams still appear on exactly one Guru list (three different Gurus have one each of the three).

Check back tomorrow after the conclusion of the Atlantic 10 Championship Game.  Within about 30 minutes of the outcome, we will publish our final Bracket Gurus report in full.  The pressure is on our Gurus.  Last year, they correctly picked all 68 teams in the field, and also correctly picked 61 teams on the correct seed line or just one seed off.

Teams In The Field as of Saturday Night, 11:59 PM EST

Team	Bid	Conf.	W-L
Bucknell	AUTO	Patriot	25-9
Buffalo	AUTO	MAC	26-8
Charleston	AUTO	CAA	26-7
Gonzaga	AUTO	WCC	30-4
Iona	AUTO	MAAC	20-13
Kansas	AUTO	B12	27-7
Lipscomb	AUTO	A-SUN	23-9
Long Island	AUTO	NEC	18-16
Loyola (Chi.)	AUTO	MVC	28-5
Marshall	AUTO	CUSA	24-10
MD-Baltimore Co.	AUTO	AE	24-10
Michigan	AUTO	BTen	28-7
Montana	AUTO	BSky	26-7
Murray St.	AUTO	OVC	26-5
New Mexico St.	AUTO	WAC	28-5
Radford	AUTO	B-South	22-12
San Diego St.	AUTO	MWC	22-10
South Dakota St.	AUTO	Summit	28-6
Stephen F. Austin	AUTO	SLC	28-6
Texas Southern	AUTO	SWAC	15-19
UNC-Central	AUTO	MEAC	19-15
UNC-Greensboro	AUTO	SoCon	27-7
Villanova	AUTO	BE	30-4
Virginia	AUTO	ACC	31-2
Wright St.	AUTO	Horizon	25-9

PiRate Ratings Bracket Gurus Report for February 26, 2018 & Conference Tourneys

A lot has changed in the week since the Gurus released their bracketology seedings.  However, as of this moment, the Gurus are sticking with normalcy.  Whereas some teams might eventually be declared ineligible for the NCAA Tournament, until it happens, the Gurus are going to keep seeding the teams where their resumes show they should be seeded.  To be more precise, the Gurus are not actually seeding the teams where THEY think they should be seed, but instead they are seeding the teams where they believe THE SELECTION COMMITTEE will seed the teams.  Please make a note of this:  The Gurus are not to blame if your favorite team (hear that Nebraska fans) is not included in the field.  It is plain and simple–The Committee has a set of criteria to select its teams and place them in proper seed lines.  Where a team finishes in its conference and conference record is not even in the criteria.  So, a Cornhusker team that is 13-5 in the Big Ten and tied for fourth with Michigan is not even among the last six teams in the Dance.  Nebraska only scheduled two non-conference opponents this year that could have helped their resume.  Losing at Creighton and losing at home to Kansas is not enough to put the Cornhuskers on the Bubble.  The KU loss was by a single point, but a miss is as good as a mile.  The only win that really helps them is the home win over Michigan.  Thus, if you are a Cornhusker fan, you better hope your team is still playing this Sunday, which would be the Big Ten Championship Game.  It will take wins over Michigan and Michigan State to even put Nebraska on the Bubble, and if Nebraska makes it to the title game without facing both Michigan teams, then they must win the automatic bid with no chance to make the field any other way.  So, Nebraska fans must cheer for Michigan to win Thursday and Michigan State to win Friday, just so your team can have a chance to pick up two Quadrant One wins.

A couple of teams made major moves forward in the Bracketology Gurus seed line this week.  Tennessee moved up to the 3-line with a win over Florida and another at Ole Miss.  The Volunteers now have a chance to win the SEC regular season championship if Auburn falters and loses its final two games (at Arkansas and vs. South Carolina), while the Vols win at Mississippi State and at home against Georgia.  Auburn has lost three of its last six games and has been moderately affected by the injury loss of Anfernee McLemore, who was one of the Tigers’ few talented big men.

Mississippi State is in a similar boat as Nebraska, but the Bulldogs are in better shape.  The Bulldogs are in a third place tie in the SEC and have won 21 games overall, but unless they upset Tennessee in Starkville and then close with a win at LSU, they will have to make it to the Championship Game of the SEC Tournament to have a chance.  Even if MSU finishes with two wins, at 11-7/23-8, they will still need to do some damage in the SEC Tournament.

In the Pac-12, UCLA has collapsed, and the Bruins are now on the outside, looking in.  Utah failed to win a crucial home game against USC after knocking UCLA to the Bubble.  Washington split on the road in the Bay Area, losing at Stanford and winning at Cal, but the Huskies have that win over Kansas at Phog Allen, plus wins against Arizona, Arizona State, and USC, so they are in contention for a bid.  USC made a slight upward move with road wins over Colorado and Utah, giving the Trojans four consecutive victories.  Arizona, most likely with Lorenzo Romar as interim head coach, closes at home with Stanford and Cal, so the Wildcats are likely to edge the Trojans for the top seed in the Pac-12 Tournament, but this is a team that has been wounded and may falter early.

In the ACC, North Carolina State has now won four consecutive games to move to 10-6 in the league.  The Wolf Pack have two winnable games to close out the season, and they could sneak up to the third seed in the ACC Tournament if they get to 12-6.  First year coach Kevin Keatts, who worked the same magic at UNC-Wilmington may be the best overall coach in college basketball, and he should compete with Tony Bennett for ACC COY and National COY.

In the Big East, Butler moved up thanks to home wins over Providence and Creighton, while Seton Hall won twice to earn a three-game winning streak after suffering a four-game losing streak prior.  After a 1-4 slide in conference play, Creighton rebounded with a big win over Villanova.

Middle Tennesse State and Western Kentucky continued winning big in CUSA play, and the two mid-major powers and arch-rivals could be headed to a momentous CUSA Tournament Championship Game where only the winner will be safely in the Dance.  Old Dominion and Marshall cannot be overlooked, but it would be ashamed if neither Middle or Western get in the tournament.  Both have Sweet 16 talent.

Out West, Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, Nevada, and New Mexico State continued to win, and the first three on this list are locks for the NCAA Tournament.  NMSU might still have an outside chance to get in if they lost in the WAC Tournament, but the Aggies most likely must win the WAC automatic bid.  Grand Canyon, Utah Valley, and Seattle all have enough talent to pull off an upset.

Here is this week’s Bracket Gurus Bracketology Report

Seed	Team	Conference
1	Villanova	B-East
1	Virginia	ACC
1	Xavier	B-East
1	Kansas	B12
2	Duke	ACC
2	Auburn	SEC
2	North Carolina	ACC
2	Michigan St.	BTen
3	Purdue	BTen
3	Cincinnati	AAC
3	Tennessee	SEC
3	Texas Tech	B12
4	Wichita St.	AAC
4	Clemson	ACC
4	West Virginia	B12
4	Arizona	Pac12
5	Ohio St.	BTen
5	Kentucky	SEC
5	Gonzaga	WCC
5	Rhode Island	A-10
6	Michigan	BTen
6	Houston	AAC
6	Seton Hall	B-East
6	TCU	B12
7	Nevada	MWC
7	Texas A&M	SEC
7	Arkansas	SEC
7	Florida	SEC
8	Oklahoma	B12
8	Arizona St.	Pac12
8	Butler	B-East
8	Creighton	B-East
9	Florida St.	ACC
9	Alabama	SEC
9	Missouri	SEC
9	Miami (Fla.)	ACC
10	North Carolina St.	ACC
10	Providence	B-East
10	Virginia Tech	ACC
10	Saint Mary’s	WCC
11	St. Bonaventure	A-10
11	Texas	B12
11	Middle Tennessee	CUSA
11	New Mexico St.	WAC
12	Kansas St.	B12
12	USC	Pac12
12	Washington	Pac12
12	Louisville	ACC
12	Loyola (Chi.)	MVC
12	UL-Lafayette	SBC
13	Buffalo	MAC
13	South Dakota St.	Summ
13	Vermont	A-East
13	Murray St.	OVC
14	UNC-Greensboro	Socon
14	College of Charleston	CAA
14	Rider	MAAC
14	Bucknell	Pat
15	Montana	B-Sky
15	UC-Davis	B-West
15	Northern Kentucky	Horiz
15	Wagner	NEC
16	Penn	Ivy
16	UNC-Asheville	B-Sth
16	Nicholls St.	SLC
16	Florida Gulf Coast	A-Sun
16	Bethune-Cookman	MEAC
16	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	SWAC

 

Top 6 Out	Conf.
Baylor	B12
UCLA	Pac12
Syracuse	ACC
Utah	Pac12
Mississippi St.	SEC
Marquette	B-East

 

Last 10 Byes (highest to lowest)

Florida St.

Alabama

Missouri

Miami (Fla.)

North Carolina St.

Providence

Virginia Tech

Saint Mary’s

St. Bonaventure

Texas

 

First Four Round

Kansas St. vs. Washington

USC vs. Louisville

Florida Gulf Coast vs. Bethune-Cookman

Nicholls St. vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff

 

Conference Tournament Action Tips Off Tonight

Championship Fortnight begins tonight, as the Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament begins on campus sites.  The A-Sun holds its tournament on the home floors of the higher seeds, so tonight’s quarterfinal round finds four games playing simultaneously.  ESPN3 will carry all four games.

Here is the bracket and schedule for the A-Sun.

Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament
All Games Played at Higher Seed
All Times EST
Quarterfinals–February 26
Time	Home	Visitors	TV
7:00 PM	#1 Florida Gulf Coast	#8 USC Upstate	ESPN3
7:30 PM	#4 NJIT	#5 North Florida	ESPN3
8:00 PM	#2 Lipscomb	#7 Stetson	ESPN3
7:00 PM	#3 Jacksonville	#6 Kennesaw St.	ESPN3
Semifinals–March 1
Time	Home	Visitors	TV
TBA	FGCU/USCU	NJIT/N.Fla.	ESPN3
TBA	Lipsc./Stetson	Jville/Kenn	ESPN3
Championship–March 4
Time	Home	Visitors	TV
3:00 PM	Higher Remaining Seed	Lower Remaining Seed	ESPN

Florida Gulf Coast (12-2/21-10) is the sexy team in this league, but the Lipscomb Bisons (10-4/20-9) are the hot team.  Lipscomb closed out the regular season on a five-game winning streak, which included a win at FGCU.  Lipscomb’s non-conference schedule was considerably stronger than FGCU, so the Bisons might be able to move up to a 15-seed if they win the automatic bid, while the Eagles and anybody else in the league would be a 16-seed.  If somebody other than the top two wins the tournament, they can book reservations in Dayton for a First Four game.

Eight other leagues begin their conference tournaments between today and Friday.  Here is a look at the brackets and schedules for these conferences.

Big South Conference Tournament
1st Round & Championship Game at Higher Seeds
Quarterfinals and Semfinals at #1 Seed
All Times EST
First Round–February 27
Time	Home	Visitors	TV
7:00 PM	#7 High Point	#10 Longwood	BSN
7:00 PM	#8 Charleston Southern	#9 Presbyterian	BSN
BSN TV	at http://bigsouthsports.com
Quarterfinals–March 1
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
1:00 PM	#2 Radford	High Point or Longwood	ESPN3
3:30 PM	#3 Winthrop	#6 Gardner-Webb	ESPN3
7:00 PM	#1 UNC-Asheville	Presbyterian or Chas Sou.	ESPN3
9:30 PM	#4 Campbell	#5 Liberty	ESPN3
Semifinals–March 2
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:00 PM	Rad/HP/Longwood	Winthrop/G-Webb	ESPN3
8:30 PM	UNCA/Presby/Chas Sou	Campbell or Liberty	ESPN3
Championship–March 4
Time	Home	Visitors	TV
1:00 PM	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	ESPN

 

Big Ten Conference Tournament
New York City
All Times EST
First Round–February 28
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
5:30 PM	#12 Iowa	#13 Illinois	Big Ten
7:45 PM	#11 Minnesota	#14 Rutgers	Big Ten
Second Round–March 1
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	#8 Maryland	#9 Wisconsin	Big Ten
2:15 PM	#5 Michigan	Iowa or Illinois	Big Ten
6:30 PM	#7 Penn St.	#10 Northwestern	Big Ten
8:45 PM	#6 Indiana	Minn. or Rutgers	Big Ten
Quarterfinals–March 2
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	#1 Michigan St.	Mary or Wisc	Big Ten
2:15 PM	#4 Nebraska	Mich/Iowa/Ill	Big Ten
6:30 PM	#2 Ohio St.	PSU or N’Western	Big Ten
8:45 PM	#3 Purdue	Ind/Minn/Rutg	Big Ten
Semifinals–March 3
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
2:00 PM	MSU/Mary/Wisc	Neb/Mich/Iowa/Ill	CBS
4:30 PM	OSU/Purd/NW	Purd/Ind/Minn/Rutg	CBS
Championship–March 4
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
4:30 PM			CBS

 

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament
Albany, NY
All Times EST
First Round–March 1
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
5:00 PM	#8 Monmouth	#9 St. Peter’s	ESPN3
7:30 PM	#7 Quinnipiac	#10 Siena	ESPN3
10:00 PM	#6 Fairfield	#11 Marist	ESPN3
Quarterfinals–March 2
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
7:00 PM	#1 Rider	Monmouth or St. Peter’s	ESPN3
9:30 PM	#2 Canisius	Quinn. or Siena	ESPN3
Quarterfinals–March 3
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
7:00 PM	#3 Niagara	Fair. or Marist	ESPN3
9:30 PM	#4 Iona	#5 Manhattan	ESPN3
Semifinals–March 4
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
7:00 PM	Rider/Monm/St. P	Iona or Manhattan	ESPN3
9:30 PM	Can/Quinn/Siena	Niag/Fair/Marist	ESPN3
Championship–March 5
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
7:00 PM			TBA

 

Missouri Valley Conference Tournament
St. Louis (Arch Madness)
All Times CST
First Round–March 1
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:00 PM	#8 Evansville	#9 Northern Iowa	ESPN3
8:30 PM	#7 Missouri St.	#10 Valparaiso	ESPN3
Quarterfinals–March 2
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	#1 Loyola (Chi.)	Evansville or UNI	ESPN3
2:30 PM	#4 Drake	#5 Bradley	ESPN3
6:00 PM	#2 Southern Illinois	MSU or Valpo	ESPN3
8:30 PM	#3 Illinois St.	#6 Indiana St.	ESPN3
Semifinals–March 3
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
2:30 PM	Loyola/Evans/UNI	Drake or Bradley	CBSSN
5:00 PM	SIU/MSU/Valpo	Ill St. or Ind St.	CBSSN
Championship–March 4
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
1:00 PM			CBS

 

Northeast Conference Tournament
All Games at Higher Seed
Top 8 Teams Qualify and Tournament Re-seeds after Quarterfinals
All Times EST
Quarterfinals–February 28
Time	Home Team	Visitors	TV
7:00 PM	#1 Wagner	#8 Central Connecticut	NEC *
7:00 PM	#2 Mount St. Mary’s	#7 Robert Morris	NEC *
7:00 PM	#3 St. Francis (PA)	#6 Fairleigh-Dickinson	NEC *
7:00 PM	#4 Long Island	#5 St. Francis (Bkn)	NEC *
* NEC Front Row at http://necfrontrow.com/
Semifinals–March 3
Time	Home Team	Visitors	TV
12:00 PM	Highest Remaining	Lowest Remaining	ESPN3
2:00 PM	2nd Highest	3rd Highest	ESPN3
Championship–March 6
Time	Home Team	Visitors	TV
7:00 PM	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	ESPN2

 

Ohio Valley Conference Tournament
Evansville, IN
Top 8 Teams Qualify, Southeast Missouri ineligible due to low APR Scores
All Times CST
First Round–February 28
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:30 PM	#5 Tennessee Tech	#8 SIU-Edwardsville	OVC
9:00 PM	#6 Tennessee St.	#7 Eastern Illinois	OVC
OVC Network at http://www.ovcdigitalnetwork.com/watch
Quarterfinals–March 1
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:30 PM	#4 Jacksonville St.	Tenn Tech or SIU-E	OVC
9:00 PM	#3 Austin Peay	TSU or EIU	OVC
Semifinals–March 2
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
7:00 PM	#1 Murray St.	JSU/TTU/SIU-E	ESPNU
9:30 PM	#2 Belmont	APSU/TSU/EIU	ESPNU
Championship–March 3
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
7:00 PM			ESPN2

 

Patriot League Tournament
All Games Played at Higher Seed
All Times EST
First Round–February 27
Time	Home	Visitors	TV
7:00 PM	#7 Lafayette	#10 American	Stadium
7:00 PM	#8 Loyola (MD)	#9 Army	Stadium
Quarterfinals–March 1
Time	Home	Visitors	TV
7:00 PM	#1 Bucknell	Loyola or Army	Stadium
7:00 PM	#4 Lehigh	#5 Boston U	Stadium
7:00 PM	#2 Colgate	Lafayette or American	Stadium
7:00 PM	#3 Navy	#6 Holy Cross	Stadium
Semifinals–March 1
Time	Home	Visitors	TV
12/2	Bucknell/Loyola/Army	Lehigh or Boston U	CBSSN
12/2	Colgate/Lafayette/American	Navy or Holy Cross	CBSSN
Championship–March 4
Time	Home	Visitors	TV
7:30 PM			CBSSN

 

Southern Conference Tournament
Asheville, NC
All Times EST
First Round–March 2
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
5:00 PM	#8 The Citadel	#9 VMI	ESPN3
7:30 PM	#7 Samford	#10 Chattanooga	ESPN3
Quarterfinals–March 3
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	#1 UNC-Greensboro	Citadel or VMI	ESPN3
2:30 PM	#4 Mercer	#5 Wofford	ESPN3
6:00 PM	#2 East Tennessee St.	Samford or Chatt.	ESPN3
8:30 PM	#3 Furman	#6 Western Carolina	ESPN3
Semifinals–March 4
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
4:00 PM	UNCG/Cit/VMI	Mercer or Wofford	ESPN3
6:30 PM	ETSU/Sam/Chatt	Furman or WCU	ESPN3
Championship–March 5
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
9:00 PM			ESPN2

 

West Coast Conference Tournament
Las Vegas
All Times PST
First Round–March 2
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:00 PM	#8 Loyola Marymount	#9 Portland	NBCSN
8:00 PM	#7 Santa Clara	#10 Pepperdine	NBCSN
Quarterfinals–March 3
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
1:00 PM	#3 BYU	#6 San Diego	NBCSN
3:00 PM	#4 San Francisco	#5 Pacific	NBCSN
7:00 PM	#1 Gonzaga	LMU or Portland	ESPN2
9:00 PM	#2 Saint Mary’s	Santa Clara or Pepperdine	ESPN2
Semifinals–March 4
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:00 PM	Gonz/LMU/Portland	USF or Pacific	ESPN
8:00 PM	SMU/SCU/Pepperdine	BYU or USD	ESPN2
Championship–March 6
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:00 PM			ESPN

All conference tournament brackets will be updated the morning after any conference games have been played. Check back here for up-to-date schedules and tip times.

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Bracket Gurus Report for February 5, 2018

Seed	Team	Conf.
1	Villanova	BE
1	Virginia	ACC
1	Purdue	BTen
1	Xavier	BE
2	Auburn	SEC
2	Kansas	B12
2	Duke	ACC
2	Clemson	ACC
3	Michigan St.	BTen
3	Texas Tech	B12
3	Cincinnati	AAC
3	Tennessee	SEC
4	Oklahoma	B12
4	North Carolina	ACC
4	Arizona	P12
4	Kentucky	SEC
5	Ohio St.	BTen
5	West Virginia	B12
5	Rhode Island	A10
5	Seton Hall	BE
6	Gonzaga	WCC
6	Saint Mary’s	WCC
6	Miami (Fla.)	ACC
6	Creighton	BE
7	Wichita St.	AAC
7	Butler	BE
7	Florida St.	ACC
7	Nevada	MWC
8	Florida	SEC
8	Texas	B12
8	Michigan	BTen
8	Alabama	SEC
9	TCU	B12
9	Arizona St.	P12
9	Louisville	ACC
9	Texas A&M	SEC
10	Missouri	SEC
10	Washington	P12
10	Providence	BE
10	USC	P12
11	Houston	AAC
11	Arkansas	SEC
11	Middle Tennessee	CUSA
11	New Mexico St.	WAC
12	N. C. St.	ACC
12	Virginia Tech	ACC
12	Boise St.	MWC
12	Kansas St.	B12
12	Buffalo	MAC
12	Loyola (Chi.)	MVC
13	UL-Lafayette	SBC
13	Vermont	AE
13	East Tennessee St.	Sou
13	South Dakota St.	Sum
14	Belmont	OVC
14	Montana	BSky
14	Northern Kentucky	Hor
14	Charleston	CAA
15	UCSB	BWest
15	Rider	MAAC
15	Bucknell	Pat
15	Fla. Gulf Coast	ASun
16	Wagner	NEC
16	Penn	Ivy
16	Nicholls St.	SLC
16	UNC-Asheville	BSth
16	N.C. A&T	MEAC
16	Ark.-Pine Bluff	SWAC

Bubble Teams on the Outside, Looking In

69	UCLA	P12
70	Temple	AAC
71	SMU	AAC
72	LSU	SEC
73	Western Kentucky	CUSA
74	Syracuse	ACC
75	St. Bonaventure	A10
76	Georgia	SEC
77	Marquette	BE
78	Mississippi State	SEC
79	Maryland	BTen
80	Utah	P12
81	South Carolina	SEC
82	Oklahoma State	B12
83	Nebraska	BTen

 

Last Four In–Headed To Dayton

North Carolina St. vs. Kansas St.

Virginia Tech vs. Boise St.

Last Four Byes

Arkansas

Houston

USC

Providence

 

PiRate Ratings Bracket Gurus Report for January 29, 2017

Our Bracket Gurus have spoken for the first time this year.  Maybe, you should listen, because in 2017, the Gurus were 100% correct in picking the final 68 teams on Selection Sunday morning, something mighty impressive considering there were about a half-dozen teams competing for the last three spots in the field.

All 12 of last year’s March Gurus have returned, and because we thought we might fall one shy, we added a trio of new Gurus who have credibility with the PiRate Captain.  So, in this report, the number of Gurus reporting is 15.

Let’s get to it.  Here are the 68 teams seeded 1-16.

Seed	Team	League
1	Villanova	BIGE
1	Purdue	BTEN
1	Virginia	ACC
1	Kansas	B12
2	Duke	ACC
2	Xavier	BIGE
2	Auburn	SEC
2	Oklahoma	B12
3	Clemson	ACC
3	Arizona	PAC12
3	Michigan St.	BTEN
3	North Carolina	ACC
4	Texas Tech	B12
4	Cincinnati	AAC
4	Tennessee	SEC
4	West Virginia	B12
5	Kentucky	SEC
5	Florida	SEC
5	Ohio St.	BTEN
5	Seton Hall	BIGE
6	Wichita St.	AAC
6	Rhode Island	A-10
6	Creighton	BIGE
6	Miami (Fla.)	ACC
7	Arizona St.	PAC12
7	Louisville	ACC
7	Florida St.	ACC
7	Gonzaga	WCC
8	TCU	B12
8	Arkansas	SEC
8	Saint Mary’s	WCC
8	Michigan	BTEN
9	Nevada	MWC
9	Alabama	SEC
9	Texas	B12
9	Butler	BIGE
10	USC	PAC12
10	Providence	BIGE
10	Kansas St.	B12
10	Houston	AAC
11	Middle Tennessee	CUSA
11	New Mexico St.	WAC
11	Buffalo	MAC
11	Loyola (Chi.)	MVC
12	Texas A&M	SEC
12	Syracuse	ACC
12	Marquette	BIGE
12	North Carolina St.	ACC
12	Washington	PAC12
12	Boise St.	MWC
13	UL-Lafayette	SBC
13	East Tennessee St.	SOCON
13	Vermont	AMEAST
13	South Dakota St.	Summit
14	Belmont	OVC
14	Wright St.	Horizon
14	William & Mary	CAA
14	Bucknell	Patriot
15	Montana	BSKY
15	UC-Davis	BWEST
15	Canisius	MAAC
15	Stephen F. Austin	SLC
16	Florida Gulf Coast	A-SUN
16	Penn	Ivy
16	Wagner	NEC
16	UNC-Asheville	BIGS
16	Bethune-Cookman	MEAC
16	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	SWAC

Here is the breakdown of Multiple Bid Leagues. There are 23, one-bid leagues in this first report, with the Mountain West Conference just barely sneaking in with two teams and Conference USA just barely missing out on getting a second team in this field.

AAC: 3

ACC: 9

Big 12: 7

Big East: 7

Big Ten: 4

Mountain West: 2

Pac-12: 4

SEC: 7

WCC: 2

 

The Bubble

The Last 4 Teams With a Bye

Kansas St.

Houston

Texas A&M

Syracuse

 

The Last 4 Teams In The Field (First Four Teams in Dayton)

Marquette vs. Boise St.

North Carolina St. vs. Washington

 

The Rest of the Bubble (in order of votes by the Gurus)

SMU

Western Kentucky

Virginia Tech

Missouri

South Carolina

LSU

UCLA

St. Bonaventure

Georgia

Utah

Notre Dame

Old Dominion

Maryland

 

 

PiRate Ratings Bracketology Gurus Pitch a Perfect Game

A shout out to our Bracketology Gurus here at the PiRate Ratings.  The guys (and one gal) successfully/correctly selected all 68 teams this morning in our final Bracketology Report.

Way to go team!  We knew you could do it.

 

68 for 68–100%!!!

Sunday March Madness Update

Rhode Island won an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament by topping VCU in the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament.  The Rams now must be moved into first round bye status, so now a new team must be lowered into the First Four in Dayton.

Our Gurus will not have time to send us those teams, so we will go with the lowest team that received a bye prior to URI being moved up.

Thus, Vanderbilt moves down to the First Four as an 11-seed to face USC and Wake Forest moves to a 12-seed to Kansas State in the other First Four game.

Selection Sunday Ayem–March 12, 2017

Like Xmas Day For A Basketball Junkie

5:30 PM Eastern DAYLIGHT Time cannot come quickly enough.  Today is the day fans of 68 teams get to open their March Madness presents.  Most of the teams that will be dancing know they are in, be it with an automatic bid or a for sure at-large bid.  The Bubble has shrunk to just a few teams, and our Bracketology Gurus believe they have the 68 teams this morning before any games are played today.  Only the seeding may be altered by today’s games, but they agree in 100% unison that the teams we will list are the 68 teams that will continue to pursue their National Championship dreams.

THE FINAL BUBBLE

California

Illinois St.

Iowa

Kansas St.

Rhode Island

Syracuse

USC

Vanderbilt

Wake Forest

Xavier

Room at the Inn for six of these 10 teams, so which six make it, and which 4 are number one seeds in the NIT?

The six we have in are (alphabetically): Kansas State, Rhode Island, USC, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, and Xavier.

The four that will need tissues to wipe their tears are: California, Illinois State, Iowa, and Syracuse

The one that the Gurus believe should be in over one that should be out is Illinois State rather than USC.  However, the Gurus are selecting based on how they predict the Selection Committee will select, and even through the rules state that teams are not chosen within a conference by conference basis, subconsciously the members will look and see that they cannot exclude both Cal and the Trojans.  USC’s win over SMU is the reason the men of Troy get in over the men of Berkeley.

 

There are six games left to be played, and the seed lines could change based on who wins, but the Committee does not change their final seedings within the last two hours, so the final scores of some of the games will be official after the final seeding has been done.  Thus, the AAC and Big Ten Championship Games will still be underway when the final seeds are completed.  Only the name of the Sun Belt Conference Champion will have to be added late, and the Committee can already put the first letter of that champion on the board–a “T” (Texas State or Troy).

 

Here is today’s schedule.

American Athletic Conference Championship
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	SMU	29-4	vs.	2	Cincinnati	29-4	3:15 PM	ESPN
Atlantic 10 Conference Championship
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
4	Rhode Island	23-9	vs.	2	VCU	26-7	12:30 PM	CBS
Big Ten Conference Championship
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
8	Michigan	23-11	vs.	2	Wisconsin	25-8	3:00 PM	CBS
Ivy League Conference Championship
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	Princeton	22-6	vs.	3	Yale	18-10	12:00 PM	ESPN2
Southeastern Conference Championship
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	Kentucky	28-5	vs.	3	Arkansas	25-8	1:00 PM	ESPN
Sun Belt Conference Championship
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
4	Texas St.	20-12	vs.	6	Troy	21-14	2:00 PM	ESPN2
Selection Sunday
5:30 PM EDT on CBS
NCAA Tournament
First Four: March 14-15
Second Round: March 16-17
Third Round: March 18-19
Sweet 16: March 23-24
Elite Eight: March 25-26
Final Four: April 1
National Championship: April 3

The Bracketology Gurus Field of 68

1. Villanova, Gonzaga, Kansas, North Carolina
2. Duke, Arizona, Kentucky, Oregon
3. Baylor, Louisville, Florida St., UCLA
4. West Virginia, Butler, Notre Dame, Cincinnati
5. Florida, Iowa St., Virginia, Purdue
6. Wisconsin, SMU, Minnesota, Michigan
7. Creighton, Arkansas, Saint Mary’s, Wichita St.
8. Maryland, Miami (Fla.), VCU, Virginia Tech
9. Northwestern, Oklahoma St., Dayton, Seton Hall
10. Michigan St., South Carolina, Marquette, Providence
11. Middle Tennessee, Xavier, Vanderbilt, USC, Wake Forest
12. UNC-Wilmington, Nevada, Vermont, Rhode Island, Kansas St.
13. Bucknell, Princeton, Winthrop, East Tennessee St.
14. Florida Gulf Coast, New Mexico St., Iona, Northern Kentucky
15. Texas Southern, Kent State, Jacksonville St., North Dakota
16. Texas St., UNC-Central, New Orleans, South Dakota St., UC-Davis, Mount St. Mary’s

Last Four Byes: Marquette, Providence, Vanderbilt, Xavier

Last Four In (Dayton Bound): USC vs. Wake Forest, Rhode Island vs. Kansas St.

First Four Out (#1 Seeds in NIT): California, Illinois St., Iowa, and Syracuse

 

Coming Next:  We go dark for 48 hours.  Tuesday morning, we will premier PiRate Bracketnomics for 2017 with a total primer on how we handle our bracket picking and outright winners of games for you that failed to heed our warnings and chose to wager your hard-earned dollars in Vegas or offshore.  FWIW, we have heard from a half-dozen of you that you have found something in our Blue Ratings that have made you handsome profits this year.  We hope that continues for you, but please do not rely on just our ratings to wager money with books in Vegas.  We don’t want the guilt trip when you cannot pay your April Mortgage or car payment.

In addition to Bracketnomics, we will also give you all the raw data to use for yourself.  We will have a spreadsheet of all 68 teams with their Four Factors, their PiRate Specific Ratings, and then follow that up with how the teams fit in our Final Four footprint.  We have backtested the data we use as far back as each statistic allows us to do, and we will include that in our preview.

Tell all your friends to check us out.  The Tuesday preview is our most visited entry of the year, even more than our Super Bowl and College Playoff National Championship football editions.

 

But remember our axiom: We are just a bunch of math nerds doing this for fun.  Please wager responsibly, or like us just wager a lunch with your friend.  Also, remember that you have a better chance of being abducted by aliens from space while being struck by lightning, as you hold the winning Power Ball and Mega Millions lottery tickets while getting a kiss from a supermodel (all at the same time) than you do of picking a perfect bracket.

Note: Special Congrats go to Renato Nunez on his impressive home run at Hohokam Park yesterday against the Rangers.