August 16, 2020
December 23, 2019
PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 17: December 29, 2019
This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads
Home |
Visitor |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Baltimore |
Pittsburgh |
13.8 |
13.6 |
14.0 |
Buffalo |
N.Y. Jets |
8.3 |
8.6 |
9.4 |
Carolina |
New Orleans |
-14.7 |
-13.4 |
-13.7 |
Cincinnati |
Cleveland |
-4.1 |
-4.5 |
-4.3 |
Dallas |
Washington |
16.0 |
15.4 |
15.5 |
Detroit |
Green Bay |
-7.2 |
-8.7 |
-9.2 |
Houston |
Tennessee |
1.4 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
Jacksonville |
Indianapolis |
-7.8 |
-8.5 |
-8.0 |
Kansas City |
LA Chargers |
9.2 |
10.2 |
10.9 |
Minnesota |
Chicago |
6.7 |
7.8 |
8.0 |
New England |
Miami |
21.7 |
22.0 |
21.6 |
N. Y. Giants |
Philadelphia |
-7.2 |
-5.7 |
-5.0 |
Tampa Bay |
Atlanta |
1.5 |
2.5 |
2.9 |
Denver |
Oakland |
7.1 |
7.6 |
7.3 |
LA Rams |
Arizona |
9.4 |
8.3 |
8.1 |
Seattle |
San Francisco |
-3.0 |
-3.9 |
-3.9 |
This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals
Home |
Visitor |
Total |
Baltimore |
Pittsburgh |
44 |
Buffalo |
N.Y. Jets |
38 |
Carolina |
New Orleans |
53 |
Cincinnati |
Cleveland |
47.5 |
Dallas |
Washington |
41.5 |
Detroit |
Green Bay |
47.5 |
Houston |
Tennessee |
45 |
Jacksonville |
Indianapolis |
41 |
Kansas City |
LA Chargers |
51.5 |
Minnesota |
Chicago |
38.5 |
New England |
Miami |
48 |
N. Y. Giants |
Philadelphia |
49 |
Tampa Bay |
Atlanta |
55.5 |
Denver |
Oakland |
44.5 |
LA Rams |
Arizona |
51 |
Seattle |
San Francisco |
49.5 |
This Week’s PiRate Ratings
Current NFL PiRate Ratings |
||||||
A F C |
||||||
East |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Avg |
Totals |
W-L |
New England |
108.0 |
108.7 |
108.2 |
108.3 |
19.5 |
12-3 |
Buffalo |
102.0 |
103.0 |
103.0 |
102.7 |
17 |
10-5 |
N. Y. Jets |
94.7 |
95.4 |
94.6 |
94.9 |
21 |
6-9 |
Miami |
89.4 |
89.7 |
89.6 |
89.6 |
28.5 |
4-11 |
North |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Avg |
Totals |
W-L |
Baltimore |
111.7 |
111.9 |
112.7 |
112.1 |
25 |
13-2 |
Pittsburgh |
98.9 |
99.4 |
99.7 |
99.3 |
19 |
8-7 |
Cleveland |
97.8 |
97.9 |
97.8 |
97.8 |
24 |
6-9 |
Cincinnati |
92.7 |
92.4 |
92.5 |
92.5 |
23.5 |
1-14 |
South |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Avg |
Totals |
W-L |
Houston |
102.2 |
102.7 |
102.7 |
102.6 |
23.5 |
10-5 |
Tennessee |
101.8 |
102.0 |
102.0 |
101.9 |
21.5 |
8-7 |
Indianapolis |
100.1 |
100.9 |
100.3 |
100.4 |
23 |
7-8 |
Jacksonville |
91.3 |
91.4 |
91.3 |
91.3 |
18 |
5-10 |
West |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Avg |
Totals |
W-L |
Kansas City |
107.0 |
107.7 |
107.7 |
107.5 |
29.5 |
11-4 |
LA Chargers |
100.4 |
100.0 |
99.3 |
99.9 |
22 |
5-10 |
Denver |
99.0 |
99.3 |
99.1 |
99.1 |
19 |
6-9 |
Oakland |
92.8 |
92.7 |
92.8 |
92.8 |
25.5 |
7-8 |
N F C |
||||||
East |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Avg |
Totals |
W-L |
Dallas |
104.2 |
104.3 |
103.9 |
104.1 |
22 |
7-8 |
Philadelphia |
101.9 |
100.7 |
100.5 |
101.0 |
23.5 |
8-7 |
N.Y. Giants |
93.7 |
94.0 |
94.4 |
94.0 |
25.5 |
4-11 |
Washington |
91.3 |
91.9 |
91.4 |
91.5 |
19.5 |
3-12 |
North |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Avg |
Totals |
W-L |
Minnesota |
106.8 |
105.7 |
105.8 |
106.1 |
21.5 |
10-5 |
Green Bay |
103.8 |
103.8 |
104.2 |
103.9 |
24 |
12-3 |
Chicago |
101.1 |
98.9 |
98.8 |
99.6 |
17 |
7-8 |
Detroit |
95.0 |
93.6 |
93.5 |
94.1 |
23.5 |
3-11-1 |
South |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Avg |
Totals |
W-L |
New Orleans |
108.7 |
107.2 |
107.7 |
107.9 |
27 |
12-3 |
Tampa Bay |
101.1 |
102.3 |
102.6 |
102.0 |
29.5 |
7-8 |
Atlanta |
100.6 |
100.8 |
100.7 |
100.7 |
26 |
6-9 |
Carolina |
93.0 |
92.8 |
93.0 |
92.9 |
26 |
5-10 |
West |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Avg |
Totals |
W-L |
San Francisco |
107.2 |
107.9 |
108.1 |
107.7 |
26 |
12-3 |
LA Rams |
104.5 |
103.6 |
104.0 |
104.0 |
26.5 |
8-7 |
Seattle |
101.2 |
101.0 |
101.2 |
101.1 |
23.5 |
11-4 |
Arizona |
96.1 |
96.3 |
96.9 |
96.4 |
24.5 |
5-9-1 |
Week 17 Playoff Scenarios
NFC
If San Francisco, New Orleans, and Green Bay all win, San Francisco is the #1 seed, Green Bay the #2 seed, and New Orleans the #3 seed.
If Seattle beats San Francisco, then Green Bay will get #1 seed with win over Detroit.
If Seattle beats San Francisco, and Detroit beats Green Bay, then New Orleans gets #1 seed with a win over Carolina.
If Seatlle beats San Francisco, and Green Bay and New Orleans lose, Seattle gets the #1 seed.
Philadelphia wins the NFC East with a win over the Giants or a Dallas loss to Washington. Any ties in the standings would go to Dallas.
Minnesota is #6 seed regardless of week 17 results.
AFC
Houston has clinched the #1 seed in the AFC
New England clinches the #2 seed with a win over Miami or a Kansas City loss to the Chargers.
Houston can pass Kansas City for the #3 seed with a win over Tennessee and a loss by Kansas City.
Buffalo is the #5 seed regardless of week 17 results.
Tennessee wins the #6 seed if they beat Houston, or with a loss with Pittsburgh losing to Baltimore while both Oakland and Indianapolis do not win.
Pittsburgh wins the #6 seed only if they win and the Titans lose.
Oakland can clinch the #6 seed with a win over Denver, plus losses by Tennessee and Pittsburgh and Indianapolis beating Jacksonville.
PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections
What are the chances that the Oakland Raiders, in their last season playing in Oakland, could sneak into the NFL Playoffs? It ranges from + or – 10-15% depending on which advanced metric expert you listen to. We’re sabermetric experts that do not perform these type of metrics on pro football.
The way we look at things, Baltimore has nothing to gain this week against Pittsburgh in their season finale. Their key players should play little or not at all. Can the Steelers with poor quarterback play rise up and beat the Ravens’ reserves if they couldn’t beat the Jets last week?
Tennessee has now dropped two games in a row to playoff teams in Houston and New Orleans, both at home. Houston may have a chance to move up to a #3 seed if Kansas City is upset earlier in the day.
Oakland closes out regular season play at Denver, where the Broncos have nothing to play for in Week 17.
Indianapolis is playing solely to get to 8-8, while Jacksonville has nothing to play for in Week 17.
We think Oakland’s chances to sneak in as the final playoff team is considerably better than 15%. In fact, just because it would make such a great story, we are going to select the Raiders as our 6th seed to set up a probably Oakland finale against their most hated rivals.
AFC Seeding |
|
1 |
Baltimore |
2 |
New England |
3 |
Kansas City |
4 |
Houston |
5 |
Buffalo |
6 |
Oakland |
|
|
NFC Seeding |
|
1 |
Green Bay |
2 |
New Orleans |
3 |
Seattle |
4 |
Philadelphia |
5 |
San Francisco |
6 |
Minnesota |
Wildcard Round |
|||
Kansas City over Oakland |
|||
Buffalo over Houston |
|||
Minnesota over Seattle |
|||
San Francisco over Philadelphia |
|||
|
|||
Divisional Round |
|||
Buffalo over Baltimore |
|||
Kansas City over New England |
|||
Green Bay over Minnesota |
|||
New Orleans over San Francisco |
|||
|
|||
Conference Championship |
|||
Kansas City over Buffalo |
|||
New Orleans over Green Bay |
|||
|
|||
Super Bowl 54 |
|||
New Orleans over Kansas City |
December 14, 2019
PiRate College Football Ratings: Final Regular Season
PiRate Ratings Spreads For 2019-2020 Bowls & Playoffs
Including TV & Start Times
All Times Given Are Eastern Standard Time
Favorite |
Underdog |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Dec. 20 |
Bahamas |
ESPN |
2:00 PM |
|
Buffalo |
Charlotte |
6.9 |
7.1 |
7.6 |
|
||||
Dec. 20 |
Frisco |
ESPN2 |
7:30 PM |
|
Utah St. |
Kent St. |
7.8 |
7.4 |
7.3 |
|
||||
Dec. 21 |
New Mexico |
ESPN |
2:00 PM |
|
San Diego St. |
Central Michigan |
5.3 |
6.1 |
4.1 |
|
||||
Dec. 21 |
Cure |
CBSSN |
2:30 PM |
|
Georgia Southern |
Liberty |
9.5 |
8.3 |
8.9 |
|
||||
Dec. 21 |
Boca Raton |
ABC |
3:30 PM |
|
SMU |
Florida Atlantic |
3.5 |
3.2 |
2.8 |
|
||||
Dec.21 |
Camellia |
ESPN |
5:30 PM |
|
Arkansas St. |
Florida Int’l. |
0.9 |
1.4 |
0.4 |
|
||||
Dec. 21 |
Las Vegas |
ABC |
7:30 PM |
|
Washington |
Boise St. |
5.0 |
4.3 |
5.6 |
|
||||
Dec. 21 |
New Orleans |
ESPN |
9:00 PM |
|
Appalachian St. |
UAB |
23.1 |
20.9 |
21.7 |
|
||||
Dec. 23 |
Gasparilla |
ESPN |
2:30 PM |
|
Central Florida |
Marshall |
19.6 |
19.4 |
19.6 |
|
||||
Dec. 24 |
Hawaii |
ESPN |
8:00 PM |
|
BYU |
Hawaii |
1.3 |
0.2 |
1.6 |
|
||||
Dec. 26 |
Independence |
ESPN |
4:00 PM |
|
Miami (Fla.) |
Louisiana Tech |
10.6 |
9.9 |
11.4 |
|
||||
Dec. 26 |
Quick Lane |
ESPN |
8:00 PM |
|
Pittsburgh |
Eastern Michigan |
13.1 |
12.3 |
12.6 |
|
||||
Dec. 27 |
Military |
ESPN |
12:00 PM |
|
North Carolina |
Temple |
8.3 |
8.3 |
7.9 |
|
||||
Dec. 27 |
Pinstripe |
ESPN |
3:20 PM |
|
Michigan St. |
Wake Forest |
4.6 |
4.4 |
3.4 |
|
||||
Dec. 27 |
Texas |
ESPN |
6:45 PM |
|
Texas A&M |
Oklahoma St. |
6.3 |
3.2 |
5.1 |
|
||||
Dec. 27 |
Holiday |
FS1 |
8:00 PM |
|
Iowa |
USC |
7.4 |
5.3 |
6.2 |
|
||||
Dec. 27 |
Cheez-It |
ESPN |
10:15 PM |
|
Washington St. |
Air Force |
5.4 |
2.8 |
4.4 |
|
||||
Dec. 28 |
Camping World |
ABC |
12:00 PM |
|
Notre Dame |
Iowa St. |
7.9 |
6.7 |
8.3 |
|
||||
Dec. 28 |
Cotton |
ESPN |
12:00 PM |
|
Penn St. |
Memphis |
11.3 |
10.1 |
10.3 |
|
||||
Dec. 28 |
Peach |
ESPN |
4:00 PM |
|
LSU |
Oklahoma |
14.5 |
13.0 |
15.1 |
|
||||
Dec. 28 |
Fiesta |
ESPN |
8:00 PM |
|
Ohio St. |
Clemson |
1.6 |
2.3 |
1.0 |
|
||||
Dec. 30 |
First Responder |
ESPN |
12:30 PM |
|
Western Michigan |
Western Kentucky |
2.3 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
|
||||
Dec. 30 |
Music City |
ESPN |
4:00 PM |
|
Mississippi St. |
Louisville |
9.6 |
6.8 |
13.4 |
|
||||
Dec. 30 |
Redbox |
Fox |
4:00 PM |
|
California |
Illinois |
4.0 |
3.2 |
4.9 |
|
||||
Dec. 30 |
Orange |
ESPN |
8:00 PM |
|
Florida |
Virginia |
21.1 |
18.8 |
20.7 |
|
||||
Dec. 31 |
Belk |
ESPN |
12:00 PM |
|
Kentucky |
Virginia Tech |
1.9 |
0.8 |
0.4 |
|
||||
Dec. 31 |
Sun |
CBS |
2:00 PM |
|
Arizona St. |
Florida St. |
3.1 |
2.7 |
3.2 |
|
||||
Dec. 31 |
Liberty |
ESPN |
3:45 PM |
|
Kansas St. |
Navy |
10.8 |
8.4 |
9.3 |
|
||||
Dec. 31 |
Arizona |
CBSSN |
4:30 PM |
|
Wyoming |
Georgia St. |
9.3 |
10.2 |
10.5 |
|
||||
Dec. 31 |
Alamo |
ESPN |
7:30 PM |
|
Utah |
Texas |
10.2 |
9.0 |
10.9 |
|
||||
Jan. 1 |
Citrus |
ABC |
1:00 PM |
|
Alabama |
Michigan |
3.2 |
1.4 |
3.2 |
|
||||
Jan. 1 |
Outback |
ESPN |
1:00 PM |
|
Auburn |
Minnesota |
5.7 |
4.3 |
6.2 |
|
||||
Jan. 1 |
Rose |
ESPN |
5:00 PM |
|
Wisconsin |
Oregon |
0.7 |
0.7 |
0.3 |
|
||||
Jan. 1 |
Sugar |
ESPN |
8:45 PM |
|
Georgia |
Baylor |
8.8 |
7.0 |
9.7 |
|
||||
Jan. 2 |
Birmingham |
ESPN |
3:00 PM |
|
Cincinnati |
Boston College |
4.0 |
4.1 |
4.1 |
|
||||
Jan. 2 |
Gator |
ESPN |
7:00 PM |
|
Tennessee |
Indiana |
0.8 |
1.5 |
0.6 |
|
||||
Jan. 3 |
Potato |
ESPN |
3:30 PM |
|
Ohio U |
Nevada |
8.6 |
6.3 |
9.8 |
|
||||
Jan. 4 |
Armed Forces |
ESPN |
11:30 AM |
|
Tulane |
Southern Miss. |
5.9 |
9.6 |
6.1 |
|
||||
Jan. 6 |
Lending Tree |
ESPN |
7:30 PM |
|
Louisiana |
Miami (O) |
12.6 |
13.8 |
12.0 |
|
||||
Jan. 13 |
Championship |
ESPN |
8:00 PM |
|
Fiesta Bowl |
Peach Bowl |
December 9, 2019
NFL Schedule Recommendation
The NFL has discussed contracting the number of games in the preseason, while possibly adding extra games to the regular season schedule and increasing the number of teams in the Playoffs. Us PiRates here on the SS Buckaroo believe we can solve all the problems and make it a win-win for owners, players, and fans alike. Here is our PiRate Principles for the NFL’s future.
-
Reduce the number of preseason games from 4 to 2
-
Make training camp 6 weeks long with preseason games during week 3 and week 4. Then, teams can practice for another week after their second preseason game before making final cuts.
-
Expand Rosters to 60 players with 3 active quarterbacks in that group of 60
-
A practice or taxi squad of 7 players would be allowed.
-
Expand the regular season to 17 games, with the extra game played at neutral sites. This would allow teams to play in London, Toronto, and Mexico City without losing home games. Other incredible venues where there is no pro football team could be Lincoln, NE, San Antonio, Iowa City, IA, Louisville, KY, Birmingham, AL, Knoxville, TN, State College, PA, Ann Arbor, MI, Columbus, OH, South Bend, IN, basically any 80,000 seat plus venue. The Falcons and Titans could probably fill up Legion Field in Birmingham. The Bears and Colts could definitely fill up Notre Dame’s stadium.
-
This 17th game would be an inter-conference game.
-
Make the playoffs a full 16 teams with the 4 division winners hosting the next 4 teams with winning records. This could still be played out in four games like the wildcard and two division winners must play in both conferences.
Look for updated NFL Ratings Tuesday morning, including a plethora of what if playoff situations.
Our PiRate Bowl Coverage will publish Saturday, December 14, after the Army-Navy game has concluded.
November 24, 2019
PiRate College Football Ratings: November 24, 2019
This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads
Tuesday |
November 26 |
|||
Home |
Visitors |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Akron |
Ohio |
-27.7 |
-27.1 |
-29.3 |
Northern Illinois |
Western Michigan |
-9.4 |
-9.2 |
-9.0 |
|
||||
Thursday |
November 28 |
|||
Home |
Visitors |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Mississippi St. |
Ole Miss |
3.7 |
1.2 |
7.5 |
|
||||
Friday |
November 29 |
|||
Home |
Visitors |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Arkansas |
Missouri |
-20.0 |
-17.5 |
-19.7 |
Ball St. |
Miami (O) |
1.4 |
2.0 |
1.1 |
Buffalo |
Bowling Green |
27.4 |
28.6 |
29.1 |
Central Florida |
South Florida |
24.1 |
22.7 |
24.1 |
Central Michigan |
Toledo |
5.0 |
5.7 |
5.7 |
Colorado St. |
Boise St. |
-18.1 |
-15.0 |
-18.0 |
Eastern Michigan |
Kent St. |
3.3 |
3.6 |
3.3 |
Memphis |
Cincinnati |
7.2 |
7.9 |
8.2 |
Nebraska |
Iowa |
-9.5 |
-7.8 |
-10.2 |
South Alabama |
Arkansas St. |
-13.9 |
-11.7 |
-14.0 |
TCU |
West Virginia |
10.3 |
12.6 |
11.2 |
Texas |
Texas Tech |
6.6 |
6.5 |
7.0 |
Troy |
Appalachian St. |
-13.8 |
-12.7 |
-14.5 |
Virginia |
Virginia Tech |
-1.7 |
-1.8 |
-2.5 |
Washington |
Washington St. |
2.2 |
2.4 |
2.6 |
|
||||
Saturday |
November 30 |
|||
Home |
Visitors |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Air Force |
Wyoming |
7.8 |
7.7 |
8.3 |
Arizona St. |
Arizona |
12.6 |
12.5 |
13.6 |
Auburn |
Alabama |
-5.0 |
-3.7 |
-5.9 |
Coastal Carolina |
Texas St. |
10.9 |
11.6 |
11.3 |
Duke |
Miami (Fla.) |
-4.6 |
-5.0 |
-6.1 |
East Carolina |
Tulsa |
-6.6 |
-5.9 |
-7.9 |
Florida |
Florida St. |
22.5 |
20.0 |
22.1 |
Florida Atlantic |
Southern Miss. |
6.6 |
7.7 |
7.3 |
Georgia Southern |
Georgia St. |
7.3 |
6.2 |
7.5 |
Georgia Tech |
Georgia |
-34.6 |
-34.0 |
-34.5 |
Hawaii |
Army |
4.6 |
5.7 |
4.3 |
Houston |
Navy |
0.9 |
-0.5 |
1.8 |
Illinois |
Northwestern |
4.6 |
6.4 |
6.1 |
Kansas |
Baylor |
-14.0 |
-13.1 |
-13.3 |
Kansas St. |
Iowa St. |
-0.4 |
-1.2 |
-0.7 |
Kentucky |
Louisville |
9.2 |
8.1 |
8.1 |
Liberty |
New Mexico St. |
16.5 |
15.7 |
16.8 |
Louisiana |
UL-Monroe |
19.5 |
19.3 |
19.7 |
Louisiana Tech |
Texas-San Antonio |
20.7 |
19.1 |
20.5 |
LSU |
Texas A&M |
16.0 |
15.2 |
16.6 |
Marshall |
Florida Int’l. |
6.3 |
6.3 |
7.2 |
Michigan |
Ohio St. |
-9.6 |
-9.9 |
-10.1 |
Michigan St. |
Maryland |
18.6 |
18.8 |
19.7 |
Minnesota |
Wisconsin |
1.3 |
1.3 |
0.9 |
Nevada |
UNLV |
8.8 |
8.8 |
8.7 |
New Mexico |
Utah St. |
-14.8 |
-12.0 |
-16.7 |
North Carolina St. |
North Carolina |
-10.4 |
-11.2 |
-11.6 |
North Texas |
UAB |
0.3 |
-2.1 |
-0.4 |
Oklahoma St. |
Oklahoma |
-10.2 |
-8.8 |
-10.0 |
Old Dominion |
Charlotte |
-12.0 |
-12.2 |
-12.6 |
Oregon |
Oregon St. |
20.2 |
19.2 |
21.2 |
Penn St. |
Rutgers |
42.0 |
41.6 |
43.5 |
Pittsburgh |
Boston College |
5.9 |
6.0 |
6.1 |
Purdue |
Indiana |
-4.7 |
-3.9 |
-5.1 |
San Diego St. |
BYU |
-2.5 |
-1.0 |
-2.4 |
San Jose St. |
Fresno St. |
-3.4 |
-2.6 |
-3.4 |
SMU |
Tulane |
6.7 |
5.9 |
6.5 |
South Carolina |
Clemson |
-27.0 |
-26.9 |
-29.2 |
Stanford |
Notre Dame |
-15.5 |
-15.4 |
-16.3 |
Syracuse |
Wake Forest |
-0.6 |
-0.7 |
-1.8 |
Temple |
Connecticut |
30.4 |
27.2 |
32.2 |
Tennessee |
Vanderbilt |
19.4 |
20.7 |
20.4 |
UCLA |
California |
-1.9 |
-1.9 |
-2.7 |
Utah |
Colorado |
31.2 |
30.4 |
31.8 |
UTEP |
Rice |
-12.2 |
-9.6 |
-11.5 |
Western Kentucky |
Middle Tennessee |
8.1 |
9.5 |
9.6 |
This Week’s PiRate Ratings
# |
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average
|
1 |
Ohio St. |
139.8 |
138.9 |
140.7 |
139.8 |
2 |
Clemson |
138.0 |
136.1 |
139.2 |
137.8 |
3 |
L S U |
131.3 |
129.1 |
131.3 |
130.6 |
4 |
Alabama |
129.1 |
126.0 |
129.6 |
128.2 |
5 |
Michigan |
127.2 |
126.0 |
127.7 |
127.0 |
6 |
Utah |
126.8 |
125.9 |
127.5 |
126.7 |
7 |
Georgia |
127.2 |
125.4 |
127.3 |
126.6 |
8 |
Florida |
125.9 |
123.3 |
125.7 |
124.9 |
9 |
Penn St. |
123.5 |
122.6 |
123.5 |
123.2 |
10 |
Oklahoma |
122.3 |
121.6 |
121.7 |
121.9 |
11 |
Auburn |
122.6 |
120.8 |
122.2 |
121.9 |
12 |
Wisconsin |
120.7 |
120.4 |
120.6 |
120.6 |
13 |
Oregon |
119.7 |
119.6 |
120.7 |
120.0 |
14 |
Notre Dame |
120.3 |
119.3 |
120.4 |
120.0 |
15 |
Minnesota |
119.0 |
118.7 |
118.5 |
118.7 |
16 |
Iowa |
118.6 |
117.1 |
118.4 |
118.0 |
17 |
Texas A&M |
118.3 |
116.9 |
117.7 |
117.7 |
18 |
Iowa St. |
114.2 |
114.7 |
114.2 |
114.3 |
19 |
Baylor |
113.7 |
113.8 |
113.1 |
113.5 |
20 |
Washington |
112.0 |
111.6 |
112.7 |
112.1 |
21 |
Virginia Tech |
111.3 |
111.4 |
112.3 |
111.7 |
22 |
U S C |
111.0 |
111.6 |
111.8 |
111.5 |
23 |
Central Florida |
111.5 |
110.8 |
111.8 |
111.4 |
24 |
Washington St. |
111.4 |
110.7 |
111.6 |
111.2 |
25 |
Oklahoma St. |
110.6 |
111.3 |
110.2 |
110.7 |
26 |
Kansas St. |
110.8 |
110.5 |
110.5 |
110.6 |
27 |
Memphis |
110.1 |
110.4 |
111.2 |
110.6 |
28 |
Tennessee |
110.7 |
110.4 |
110.1 |
110.4 |
29 |
Mississippi St. |
109.9 |
106.6 |
113.7 |
110.1 |
30 |
Texas |
109.9 |
110.1 |
109.6 |
109.9 |
31 |
Indiana |
110.1 |
109.1 |
109.9 |
109.7 |
32 |
T C U |
108.8 |
111.0 |
109.2 |
109.7 |
33 |
Kentucky |
110.0 |
108.7 |
108.9 |
109.2 |
34 |
Missouri |
110.2 |
107.7 |
109.0 |
109.0 |
35 |
Boise St. |
108.5 |
108.7 |
108.8 |
108.7 |
36 |
South Carolina |
109.5 |
107.7 |
108.5 |
108.6 |
37 |
Michigan St. |
108.9 |
108.1 |
108.2 |
108.4 |
38 |
Virginia |
108.1 |
108.1 |
108.3 |
108.2 |
39 |
Arizona St. |
108.0 |
107.5 |
108.5 |
108.0 |
40 |
Ole Miss |
107.7 |
106.9 |
107.7 |
107.4 |
41 |
Appalachian St. |
107.5 |
106.8 |
106.8 |
107.0 |
42 |
North Carolina |
106.1 |
106.0 |
106.7 |
106.3 |
43 |
Miami (Fla.) |
106.0 |
105.6 |
106.9 |
106.2 |
44 |
Nebraska |
106.1 |
106.3 |
105.2 |
105.9 |
45 |
Cincinnati |
105.9 |
105.5 |
106.0 |
105.8 |
46 |
Texas Tech |
105.8 |
106.2 |
105.1 |
105.7 |
47 |
Air Force |
104.1 |
105.8 |
105.0 |
105.0 |
48 |
Florida St. |
104.8 |
104.8 |
105.0 |
104.9 |
49 |
Illinois |
104.6 |
105.4 |
104.5 |
104.8 |
50 |
SMU |
104.3 |
104.1 |
104.7 |
104.4 |
51 |
Louisiana |
103.8 |
104.2 |
103.5 |
103.8 |
52 |
Purdue |
103.9 |
103.7 |
103.3 |
103.6 |
53 |
Pittsburgh |
103.6 |
103.1 |
103.7 |
103.5 |
54 |
California |
103.4 |
103.1 |
103.8 |
103.4 |
55 |
Wake Forest |
103.2 |
102.5 |
103.5 |
103.1 |
56 |
BYU |
102.6 |
102.8 |
102.3 |
102.6 |
57 |
Louisville |
102.3 |
102.1 |
102.3 |
102.2 |
58 |
West Virginia |
101.6 |
101.4 |
101.0 |
101.3 |
59 |
Oregon St. |
101.0 |
101.9 |
101.0 |
101.3 |
60 |
Stanford |
101.8 |
100.9 |
101.1 |
101.3 |
61 |
Northwestern |
101.5 |
100.5 |
99.9 |
100.7 |
62 |
Tulane |
100.1 |
100.8 |
100.7 |
100.5 |
63 |
Boston College |
100.7 |
100.1 |
100.6 |
100.5 |
64 |
Navy |
98.6 |
100.9 |
99.6 |
99.7 |
65 |
Temple |
99.3 |
99.0 |
100.5 |
99.6 |
66 |
Wyoming |
98.8 |
100.6 |
99.2 |
99.5 |
67 |
Syracuse |
99.6 |
98.8 |
98.7 |
99.0 |
68 |
U C L A |
99.0 |
98.7 |
98.6 |
98.8 |
69 |
Colorado |
98.6 |
98.5 |
98.7 |
98.6 |
70 |
Florida Atlantic |
97.9 |
97.9 |
98.9 |
98.2 |
71 |
Western Michigan |
98.5 |
97.6 |
98.2 |
98.1 |
72 |
Duke |
98.4 |
97.5 |
97.8 |
97.9 |
73 |
San Diego St. |
97.1 |
98.7 |
96.9 |
97.6 |
74 |
Houston |
96.5 |
97.4 |
98.4 |
97.4 |
75 |
Kansas |
96.7 |
97.7 |
96.8 |
97.1 |
76 |
Utah St. |
96.9 |
96.4 |
97.5 |
96.9 |
77 |
Arizona |
96.9 |
96.6 |
96.4 |
96.6 |
78 |
Georgia Southern |
96.7 |
96.6 |
96.2 |
96.5 |
79 |
Western Kentucky |
95.4 |
96.2 |
96.9 |
96.2 |
80 |
Ohio |
95.9 |
95.1 |
96.4 |
95.8 |
81 |
Hawaii |
95.6 |
97.0 |
94.8 |
95.8 |
82 |
Army |
95.5 |
95.7 |
95.0 |
95.4 |
83 |
Buffalo |
93.7 |
94.3 |
95.1 |
94.3 |
84 |
Louisiana Tech |
94.1 |
94.3 |
94.1 |
94.1 |
85 |
Southern Miss. |
94.3 |
93.2 |
94.6 |
94.0 |
86 |
North Carolina St. |
94.2 |
93.3 |
93.6 |
93.7 |
87 |
Tulsa |
92.8 |
93.6 |
94.0 |
93.5 |
88 |
Fresno St. |
92.6 |
93.6 |
92.6 |
92.9 |
89 |
Marshall |
92.2 |
92.0 |
93.0 |
92.4 |
90 |
Maryland |
93.3 |
92.3 |
91.5 |
92.4 |
91 |
Arkansas St. |
91.7 |
92.1 |
91.6 |
91.8 |
92 |
Vanderbilt |
92.8 |
91.2 |
91.2 |
91.7 |
93 |
Georgia St. |
90.9 |
91.9 |
90.2 |
91.0 |
94 |
Miami (Ohio) |
91.2 |
90.2 |
91.5 |
91.0 |
95 |
Troy |
91.2 |
91.6 |
89.8 |
90.9 |
96 |
Georgia Tech |
91.1 |
89.9 |
91.3 |
90.8 |
97 |
Nevada |
90.4 |
92.0 |
89.9 |
90.8 |
98 |
Ball St. |
90.1 |
89.7 |
90.1 |
90.0 |
99 |
Central Michigan |
89.2 |
89.9 |
90.2 |
89.7 |
100 |
U A B |
88.8 |
90.8 |
89.5 |
89.7 |
101 |
Liberty |
89.3 |
90.4 |
89.4 |
89.7 |
102 |
South Florida |
88.9 |
89.6 |
89.2 |
89.2 |
103 |
Eastern Michigan |
88.8 |
89.1 |
89.4 |
89.1 |
104 |
Florida Int’l. |
88.9 |
88.7 |
88.8 |
88.8 |
105 |
Colorado St. |
87.4 |
90.7 |
87.9 |
88.7 |
106 |
Middle Tennessee |
88.8 |
88.2 |
88.8 |
88.6 |
107 |
San Jose St. |
87.7 |
89.5 |
87.7 |
88.3 |
108 |
Kent St. |
88.0 |
88.0 |
88.6 |
88.2 |
109 |
Charlotte |
87.7 |
88.0 |
88.2 |
88.0 |
110 |
Coastal Carolina |
87.3 |
88.4 |
87.0 |
87.6 |
111 |
Arkansas |
87.7 |
87.6 |
86.8 |
87.4 |
112 |
Toledo |
86.7 |
86.7 |
87.0 |
86.8 |
113 |
North Texas |
86.6 |
86.2 |
86.6 |
86.5 |
114 |
Northern Illinois |
86.6 |
85.9 |
86.7 |
86.4 |
115 |
Louisiana-Monroe |
85.8 |
86.4 |
85.3 |
85.9 |
116 |
East Carolina |
83.7 |
85.1 |
83.7 |
84.2 |
117 |
Rutgers |
84.5 |
84.0 |
83.0 |
83.8 |
118 |
U N L V |
83.1 |
84.7 |
82.7 |
83.5 |
119 |
Rice |
82.3 |
83.3 |
82.0 |
82.5 |
120 |
New Mexico |
79.6 |
81.8 |
78.2 |
79.9 |
121 |
Texas St. |
78.8 |
79.3 |
78.2 |
78.8 |
122 |
Texas-San Antonio |
75.9 |
77.7 |
76.1 |
76.5 |
123 |
New Mexico St. |
75.8 |
77.7 |
75.6 |
76.3 |
124 |
South Alabama |
75.3 |
77.8 |
75.1 |
76.1 |
125 |
Old Dominion |
73.7 |
73.8 |
73.6 |
73.7 |
126 |
Connecticut |
71.4 |
74.2 |
70.8 |
72.1 |
127 |
U T E P |
68.6 |
72.2 |
69.0 |
69.9 |
128 |
Bowling Green |
69.2 |
68.6 |
68.9 |
68.9 |
129 |
Akron |
66.8 |
66.5 |
65.7 |
66.3 |
130 |
Massachusetts |
56.7 |
58.2 |
55.7 |
56.9 |
PiRate Ratings By Conference
American Athletic Conference |
||||
East Division |
||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
Central Florida |
111.5 |
110.8 |
111.8 |
111.4 |
Cincinnati |
105.9 |
105.5 |
106.0 |
105.8 |
Temple |
99.3 |
99.0 |
100.5 |
99.6 |
South Florida |
88.9 |
89.6 |
89.2 |
89.2 |
East Carolina |
83.7 |
85.1 |
83.7 |
84.2 |
Connecticut |
71.4 |
74.2 |
70.8 |
72.1 |
|
||||
West Division |
||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
Memphis |
110.1 |
110.4 |
111.2 |
110.6 |
SMU |
104.3 |
104.1 |
104.7 |
104.4 |
Tulane |
100.1 |
100.8 |
100.7 |
100.5 |
Navy |
98.6 |
100.9 |
99.6 |
99.7 |
Houston |
96.5 |
97.4 |
98.4 |
97.4 |
Tulsa |
92.8 |
93.6 |
94.0 |
93.5 |
AAC Averages |
96.9 |
97.6 |
97.6 |
97.4 |
|
||||
Atlantic Coast Conference |
||||
Atlantic Division |
||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
Clemson |
138.0 |
136.1 |
139.2 |
137.8 |
Florida St. |
104.8 |
104.8 |
105.0 |
104.9 |
Wake Forest |
103.2 |
102.5 |
103.5 |
103.1 |
Louisville |
102.3 |
102.1 |
102.3 |
102.2 |
Boston College |
100.7 |
100.1 |
100.6 |
100.5 |
Syracuse |
99.6 |
98.8 |
98.7 |
99.0 |
North Carolina St. |
94.2 |
93.3 |
93.6 |
93.7 |
|
||||
Coastal Division |
||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
Virginia Tech |
111.3 |
111.4 |
112.3 |
111.7 |
Virginia |
108.1 |
108.1 |
108.3 |
108.2 |
North Carolina |
106.1 |
106.0 |
106.7 |
106.3 |
Miami (Fla.) |
106.0 |
105.6 |
106.9 |
106.2 |
Pittsburgh |
103.6 |
103.1 |
103.7 |
103.5 |
Duke |
98.4 |
97.5 |
97.8 |
97.9 |
Georgia Tech |
91.1 |
89.9 |
91.3 |
90.8 |
ACC Averages |
104.8 |
104.2 |
105.0 |
104.7 |
|
||||
Big 12 Conference |
||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
Oklahoma |
122.3 |
121.6 |
121.7 |
121.9 |
Iowa St. |
114.2 |
114.7 |
114.2 |
114.3 |
Baylor |
113.7 |
113.8 |
113.1 |
113.5 |
Oklahoma St. |
110.6 |
111.3 |
110.2 |
110.7 |
Kansas St. |
110.8 |
110.5 |
110.5 |
110.6 |
Texas |
109.9 |
110.1 |
109.6 |
109.9 |
T C U |
108.8 |
111.0 |
109.2 |
109.7 |
Texas Tech |
105.8 |
106.2 |
105.1 |
105.7 |
West Virginia |
101.6 |
101.4 |
101.0 |
101.3 |
Kansas |
96.7 |
97.7 |
96.8 |
97.1 |
Big 12 Averages |
109.4 |
109.8 |
109.1 |
109.5 |
|
||||
Big Ten Conference |
||||
East Division |
||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
Ohio St. |
139.8 |
138.9 |
140.7 |
139.8 |
Michigan |
127.2 |
126.0 |
127.7 |
127.0 |
Penn St. |
123.5 |
122.6 |
123.5 |
123.2 |
Indiana |
110.1 |
109.1 |
109.9 |
109.7 |
Michigan St. |
108.9 |
108.1 |
108.2 |
108.4 |
Maryland |
93.3 |
92.3 |
91.5 |
92.4 |
Rutgers |
84.5 |
84.0 |
83.0 |
83.8 |
|
||||
West Division |
||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
Wisconsin |
120.7 |
120.4 |
120.6 |
120.6 |
Minnesota |
119.0 |
118.7 |
118.5 |
118.7 |
Iowa |
118.6 |
117.1 |
118.4 |
118.0 |
Nebraska |
106.1 |
106.3 |
105.2 |
105.9 |
Illinois |
104.6 |
105.4 |
104.5 |
104.8 |
Purdue |
103.9 |
103.7 |
103.3 |
103.6 |
Northwestern |
101.5 |
100.5 |
99.9 |
100.7 |
Big Ten Averages |
111.6 |
110.9 |
111.1 |
111.2 |
|
||||
Conference USA |
||||
East Division |
||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
Florida Atlantic |
97.9 |
97.9 |
98.9 |
98.2 |
Western Kentucky |
95.4 |
96.2 |
96.9 |
96.2 |
Marshall |
92.2 |
92.0 |
93.0 |
92.4 |
Florida Int’l. |
88.9 |
88.7 |
88.8 |
88.8 |
Middle Tennessee |
88.8 |
88.2 |
88.8 |
88.6 |
Charlotte |
87.7 |
88.0 |
88.2 |
88.0 |
Old Dominion |
73.7 |
73.8 |
73.6 |
73.7 |
|
||||
West Division |
||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
Louisiana Tech |
94.1 |
94.3 |
94.1 |
94.1 |
Southern Miss. |
94.3 |
93.2 |
94.6 |
94.0 |
U A B |
88.8 |
90.8 |
89.5 |
89.7 |
North Texas |
86.6 |
86.2 |
86.6 |
86.5 |
Rice |
82.3 |
83.3 |
82.0 |
82.5 |
Texas-San Antonio |
75.9 |
77.7 |
76.1 |
76.5 |
U T E P |
68.6 |
72.2 |
69.0 |
69.9 |
CUSA Averages |
86.8 |
87.3 |
87.2 |
87.1 |
|
||||
FBS Independents |
||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
Notre Dame |
120.3 |
119.3 |
120.4 |
120.0 |
BYU |
102.6 |
102.8 |
102.3 |
102.6 |
Army |
95.5 |
95.7 |
95.0 |
95.4 |
Liberty |
89.3 |
90.4 |
89.4 |
89.7 |
New Mexico St. |
75.8 |
77.7 |
75.6 |
76.3 |
Massachusetts |
56.7 |
58.2 |
55.7 |
56.9 |
Indep. Averages |
90.0 |
90.7 |
89.7 |
90.1 |
|
||||
Mid-American Conference |
||||
East Division |
||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
Ohio |
95.9 |
95.1 |
96.4 |
95.8 |
Buffalo |
93.7 |
94.3 |
95.1 |
94.3 |
Miami (Ohio) |
91.2 |
90.2 |
91.5 |
91.0 |
Kent St. |
88.0 |
88.0 |
88.6 |
88.2 |
Bowling Green |
69.2 |
68.6 |
68.9 |
68.9 |
Akron |
66.8 |
66.5 |
65.7 |
66.3 |
|
||||
West Division |
||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
Western Michigan |
98.5 |
97.6 |
98.2 |
98.1 |
Ball St. |
90.1 |
89.7 |
90.1 |
90.0 |
Central Michigan |
89.2 |
89.9 |
90.2 |
89.7 |
Eastern Michigan |
88.8 |
89.1 |
89.4 |
89.1 |
Toledo |
86.7 |
86.7 |
87.0 |
86.8 |
Northern Illinois |
86.6 |
85.9 |
86.7 |
86.4 |
MAC Averages |
87.1 |
86.8 |
87.3 |
87.1 |
|
||||
Mountain West Conference |
||||
Mountain Division |
||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
Boise St. |
108.5 |
108.7 |
108.8 |
108.7 |
Air Force |
104.1 |
105.8 |
105.0 |
105.0 |
Wyoming |
98.8 |
100.6 |
99.2 |
99.5 |
Utah St. |
96.9 |
96.4 |
97.5 |
96.9 |
Colorado St. |
87.4 |
90.7 |
87.9 |
88.7 |
New Mexico |
79.6 |
81.8 |
78.2 |
79.9 |
|
||||
West Division |
||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
San Diego St. |
97.1 |
98.7 |
96.9 |
97.6 |
Hawaii |
95.6 |
97.0 |
94.8 |
95.8 |
Fresno St. |
92.6 |
93.6 |
92.6 |
92.9 |
Nevada |
90.4 |
92.0 |
89.9 |
90.8 |
San Jose St. |
87.7 |
89.5 |
87.7 |
88.3 |
U N L V |
83.1 |
84.7 |
82.7 |
83.5 |
MWC Averages |
93.5 |
95.0 |
93.4 |
94.0 |
|
||||
Pac-12 Conference |
||||
North Division |
||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
Oregon |
119.7 |
119.6 |
120.7 |
120.0 |
Washington |
112.0 |
111.6 |
112.7 |
112.1 |
Washington St. |
111.4 |
110.7 |
111.6 |
111.2 |
California |
103.4 |
103.1 |
103.8 |
103.4 |
Oregon St. |
101.0 |
101.9 |
101.0 |
101.3 |
Stanford |
101.8 |
100.9 |
101.1 |
101.3 |
|
||||
South Division |
||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
Utah |
126.8 |
125.9 |
127.5 |
126.7 |
U S C |
111.0 |
111.6 |
111.8 |
111.5 |
Arizona St. |
108.0 |
107.5 |
108.5 |
108.0 |
U C L A |
99.0 |
98.7 |
98.6 |
98.8 |
Colorado |
98.6 |
98.5 |
98.7 |
98.6 |
Arizona |
96.9 |
96.6 |
96.4 |
96.6 |
Pac-12 Averages |
107.5 |
107.2 |
107.7 |
107.5 |
|
||||
Southeastern Conference |
||||
East Division |
||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
Georgia |
127.2 |
125.4 |
127.3 |
126.6 |
Florida |
125.9 |
123.3 |
125.7 |
124.9 |
Tennessee |
110.7 |
110.4 |
110.1 |
110.4 |
Kentucky |
110.0 |
108.7 |
108.9 |
109.2 |
Missouri |
110.2 |
107.7 |
109.0 |
109.0 |
South Carolina |
109.5 |
107.7 |
108.5 |
108.6 |
Vanderbilt |
92.8 |
91.2 |
91.2 |
91.7 |
|
||||
West Division |
||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
L S U |
131.3 |
129.1 |
131.3 |
130.6 |
Alabama |
129.1 |
126.0 |
129.6 |
128.2 |
Auburn |
122.6 |
120.8 |
122.2 |
121.9 |
Texas A&M |
118.3 |
116.9 |
117.7 |
117.7 |
Mississippi St. |
109.9 |
106.6 |
113.7 |
110.1 |
Ole Miss |
107.7 |
106.9 |
107.7 |
107.4 |
Arkansas |
87.7 |
87.6 |
86.8 |
87.4 |
SEC Averages |
113.8 |
112.0 |
113.5 |
113.1 |
|
||||
Sunbelt Conference |
||||
East Division |
||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
Appalachian St. |
107.5 |
106.8 |
106.8 |
107.0 |
Georgia Southern |
96.7 |
96.6 |
96.2 |
96.5 |
Georgia St. |
90.9 |
91.9 |
90.2 |
91.0 |
Troy |
91.2 |
91.6 |
89.8 |
90.9 |
Coastal Carolina |
87.3 |
88.4 |
87.0 |
87.6 |
|
||||
West Division |
||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
Louisiana |
103.8 |
104.2 |
103.5 |
103.8 |
Arkansas St. |
91.7 |
92.1 |
91.6 |
91.8 |
Louisiana-Monroe |
85.8 |
86.4 |
85.3 |
85.9 |
Texas St. |
78.8 |
79.3 |
78.2 |
78.8 |
South Alabama |
75.3 |
77.8 |
75.1 |
76.1 |
SBC Averages |
90.9 |
91.5 |
90.4 |
90.9 |
Conference Power Ratings |
||
# |
League |
Average
|
1 |
Southeastern |
113.1 |
2 |
Big Ten |
111.2 |
3 |
Big 12 |
109.5 |
4 |
Pac-12 |
107.5 |
5 |
Atlantic Coast |
104.7 |
6 |
American |
97.4 |
7 |
Mountain West |
94.0 |
8 |
Sun Belt |
90.9 |
9 |
Independents |
90.1 |
10 |
Conf. USA |
87.1 |
11 |
Mid-American |
87.1 |
PiRate Guess at Top 6 |
||
1 |
Ohio St. |
|
2 |
LSU |
|
3 |
Clemson |
|
4 |
Georgia |
|
5 |
Utah |
|
6 |
Alabama |
Top 5 Group of 5 |
||
1 |
Memphis |
|
2 |
Cincinnati |
|
3 |
Boise St. |
|
4 |
Appalachian St. |
|
5 |
Navy |
The Conference Races
With one week to go before conference championship week, there are still some conference division races yet to be clinched. Here at PiRate Central, we will make it easy for you.
American Athletic Conference
Cincinnati has clinched the East Division, no matter what they do at Memphis.
Memphis clinches the West Division, if they beat Cincinnati, or Navy loses to Houston.
The winner of this week’s Cincinnati – Memphis game will host the AAC Championship Game.
Atlantic Coast
Clemson has clinched the Atlantic Division.
The winner of this week’s Virginia – Virginia Tech game wins the Coastal Division.
If Clemson beats Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship Game, Virginia Tech has about a 95% chance of getting the Orange Bowl bid.
If Clemson beats Virginia in the ACC Championship Game, Virginia has about an 80% chance of getting the Orange Bowl bid.
Should Clemson be upset in the ACC Championship Game, either Virginia or Virginia Tech would get the Orange Bowl bid, and Clemson would likely knock out a team from the Southwest or West for the Cotton Bowl bid.
Big 12
Oklahoma and Baylor have already clinched the top two spots and will play in the Big 12 Championship Game.
If Baylor beats Kansas, and Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, then BU will be the top seed. Under any other scenario, Oklahoma will be the top seed.
If Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State and Baylor, the Sooners have a 30% chance of making it to the Playoffs, and at worst would be the Sugar Bowl representative for the league.
If Baylor beats Kansas and Oklahoma, there is only a 5% chance that BU would make the playoffs.
If the loser of the Big 12 Championship Game has two losses, that team has a 70% chance to earn the Cotton Bowl bid.
Big Ten
Ohio State has already clinched the East Division title even if Michigan upsets them in the Big House like they did in the big upset 50 years ago.
The winner of the Minnesota-Wisconsin game wins the West Division and has a better than 50-50 chance to earn the Rose Bowl bid if they lose to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game.
If Minnesota beats a 12-0 Ohio State team in the Big Ten Championship, the Gophers have a 30% chance to earn a Playoff bid.
Conference USA
This is the most difficult tie-breaker with one week to go, as both divisions are still up for grabs.
In the East, Florida Atlantic has a one-game lead over Marshall and Western Kentucky, but WKU has been eliminated from the race.
If FAU beats Southern Miss, or Marshall loses to Florida International, then FAU wins the division and hosts the CUSA Championship Game.
If FAU loses to Southern Miss, and Marshall beats FIU, then Marshall wins the East and has a chance to host the CUSA Championship Game.
In the West, there is currently a three-way tie with multiple possible outcomes.
Southern Miss plays Florida Atlantic in the key game. Louisiana Tech plays UTSA, and UAB plays North Texas.
If all three West co-leaders win or they all lose, Southern Miss will win the tiebreaker.
If Southern Miss loses and UAB wins, then UAB wins the West.
If Louisiana Tech wins and Southern Miss loses, then Louisiana Tech wins the division even if Southern Miss beats FAU.
If Southern Miss beats FAU and Louisiana Tech loses to UTSA, then Southern Miss wins the West even if UAB beats North Texas.
All five teams still alive can host the CUSA Championship Game based on a myriad of tiebreakers between multiple teams with 6-2 league records.
Independents (Not Including Notre Dame)
BYU has clinched the Hawaii Bowl Bid.
Liberty is bowl eligible
Mid-American
Miami of Ohio has already clinched the East Division.
Western Michigan will clinch the West Division with a win over Northern Illinois OR a loss by Central Michigan to Toledo.
Central Michigan will clinch the West Division with a win over Toledo AND a loss by Western Michigan.
Mountain West
Boise State has already clinched the Mountain Division Championship and has clinched the home field for the Championship Game.
Hawaii has already clinched the West Division Championship and will play at Boise State in the Championship Game.
Boise State still has a chance to make the Cotton Bowl by winning out, while the AAC champion has two overall losses.
Pac-12
Even after a disappointing upset loss to Arizona State, Oregon has already clinched the North Division Championship and still has a chance to go to the Rose Bowl with a slight chance to go to the Cotton Bowl.
Utah will win the South by beating a Colorado team that will be playing for bowl eligibility when the Buffs visit Salt Lake City. Should Utah lose this game, USC will win the South Division Championship.
Utah still has a less than 50-50 chance to make the Playoffs by beating Colorado and Oregon, but the Utes are most likely looking at a Rose Bowl bid. Should they lose to Oregon, Utah still has a 50-50 shot at the Cotton Bowl.
Southeastern
The SEC Championship Game is set between LSU and Georgia. See the feature below on sleuthing the SEC Bowl Tie-Ins and all the open spots.
Sun Belt
Appalachian State will play Louisiana in the Sun Belt Championship Game.
If both teams win this week or both teams lose, Appy State will be the host team based on their regular season win over the Ragin’ Cajuns. UL can only host if Appy State loses to Troy, while Louisiana beats UL-Monroe.
Appalachian State still has a minute chance to earn the Cotton Bowl bid. The Mountaineers must win out; Boise State must lose to Hawaii; and the AAC Champion must have two losses.
————————————–
The SEC Bowl Issue
With the possibility that two SEC teams will make the Playoffs, and then two more will earn New Year’s Six Bowl Games (Sugar and Orange), there is a chance that as many as five SEC tie-in bowls will not have bowl eligible SEC teams and will have to look elsewhere for at-large teams.
Two issues will affect the final week of the regular season. Currently, there are just eight bowl eligible teams–Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, and Kentucky in the East and LSU, Alabama, Auburn, and Texas A&M in the West.
Mississippi State and Missouri can become bowl eligible with wins this week. Missouri has a much easier final regular season game against 0-7 Arkansas, while Mississippi State must beat rival Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl. Missouri can also be eliminated if the NCAA rules negatively on an appeal between tomorrow and December 8.
The PiRates are old buckaroos, so we know that politics play a part in decisions. The SEC has no doubt twisted the NCAA’s arm to not decide on Missouri’s appeal until after the bowls have been played. The SEC needs as many bowl eligible teams as possible.
We wouldn’t be totally surprised if all the close calls in the Egg Bowl go in favor of Mississippi State. If the game is called without any bias, we actually believe Ole Miss is playing better football at this point of the season.
Being that the law of averages tends to side on the side of a split with two 5-6 teams playing to get to 6-6, we will say that one team makes it. For argument purposes, we will award Missouri the 6-6 record and Ole Miss the Egg Bowl Trophy.
At this point, there would be nine SEC Bowl Eligible teams.
Let’s say that LSU wins out and takes one Playoff spot, while Alabama beats Auburn and gets Playoff spot number two–once again politics playing a large part as the Committee can always come up with a reason to include a one-loss Tide team even if the entire first team is out with injuries.
Now, let’s slot Georgia into the Sugar Bowl and Florida into the Orange Bowl. That’s four teams with just five bowl eligible teams left.
The Citrus Bowl gets the next best team, and Auburn would be the logical choice here.
The Independence and Birmingham Bowls can already start looking for at-large teams at this point, as they are the bottom two in the contractual agreement.
That leaves the Outback, Gator, Texas, Belk, Music City, and Liberty Bowls hoping to get Tennessee, Kentucky, Missouri, and Texas A&M. Six bowls and four teams mean that two will be left at the conference altar.
The Outback and Gator Bowls are New Year’s Day Bowls. The SEC isn’t about to allow a 7-5 or 6-6 at-large team from 1,000-2,000 miles away take one of these prized spots. Put Tennessee in the Outback and Kentucky in the Gator.
With Texas A&M still available, it is obvious which bowl would be best for all. The Aggies would head to Houston to play in the Texas Bowl, which sort of has a gentleman’s agreement to get a better draw this year after taking Vanderbilt last year. A Texas A&M-Texas game could be arranged for the Texas Bowl, and it would be a sellout with tickets getting scalped.
That leaves Missouri as the last bowl team. Missouri played in the Liberty Bowl last year, so they would not return to Memphis. The Tigers already played in Nashville against Vanderbilt, and even though Nashville is the hottest destination in the South if not the entire nation, I don’t see the Music City Bowl getting an opportunity to invite the Tigers for their second trip of the season. Put Missouri in the Belk Bowl.
This would leave the Music City and Liberty Bowls out in the cold as the two bowls that would have to find at-large opponents. There will be extra Mountain West, Conference USA, and Mid-American teams that are bowl eligible. The ACC could send Virginia, Wake Forest, or Louisville to Nashville, while the Big 12 could send Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas, or TCU to the Liberty Bowl. We believe that Kansas State or Iowa State is the most likely team to go to Memphis.
If the Mountain West has extra teams, there is a chance that the league would arrange for one of their better teams to come Southeast to one of the two Volunteer State bowls. Air Force, San Diego State, or Utah State might be where the Liberty Bowl can look.
The Music City Bowl will then likely need a Mid-American Conference team, and likewise, a deal could be struck with the MAC to send a 6-6 team to a regular contracted bowl, while bringing the MAC Champion to Nashville. The organizers of the Music City Bowl would probably like to pay Tom Brady to suit up for Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl.
This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections
Note: This Section Has Been Edited Late Sunday Night. It was brought to our attention that the Hawaii Bowl slightly changes their tie-ins. We originally had this bowl featuring BYU if they were bowl eligible or a Mountain West team or basically a Bowl Eligible Hawaii team versus a team from the American Athletic Conference. The bowl changed to BYU if bowl eligible versus either an AAC or Mountain West team, but if Hawaii is bowl eligible and not the MWC Champion, then Hawaii gets this bid.
Thus, it started a chain reaction where we had to move about 20 teams from one bowl to another. Here is the latest version of our Bowl Projections.
Bowl |
Conf |
Conf |
Team |
Team |
Bahamas |
MAC |
CUSA |
Buffalo |
Charlotte |
Frisco |
AAC |
At-large |
SMU |
[UAB] |
Cure |
AAC |
SBC |
Navy |
Georgia St. |
New Mexico |
CUSA |
MWC |
Southern Miss. |
San Diego St. |
Boca Raton |
AAC |
MAC |
Central Florida |
Miami (O) |
Camellia |
MAC |
SBC |
Western Michigan |
Arkansas St. |
Las Vegas |
MWC #1 |
Pac-12 |
Boise St. |
Washington St. |
New Orleans |
CUSA |
SBC #1 |
Louisiana Tech |
Appalachian St. |
Gasparilla |
AAC |
CUSA |
Cincinnati |
Florida Atlantic |
Hawaii |
BYU/MWC |
AAC/MWC |
BYU |
Hawaii |
Independence |
ACC |
SEC |
Florida St. |
[Marshall] |
Quick Lane |
ACC |
Big Ten |
Miami (Fla.) |
Michigan St. |
Military |
ACC |
AAC |
North Carolina |
Temple |
Pinstripe |
ACC |
Big Ten |
Pittsburgh |
Illinois |
Texas |
Big 12 |
SEC |
Texas |
Texas A&M |
Holiday |
Pac-12 |
Big Ten |
Washington |
Michigan |
Cheez-It |
Big 12 |
Pac-12 |
Kansas St. |
[Nevada] |
Camping World |
ACC |
Big 12 |
Notre Dame |
Oklahoma St. |
Cotton |
At-large |
At-large |
Memphis |
Utah |
First Responder |
CUSA |
Big 12 |
Western Ky. |
TCU |
Redbox |
Pac-12 |
Big Ten |
Arizona St. |
Iowa |
Music City |
SEC |
ACC |
[Central Michigan] |
Louisville |
Orange |
ACC |
BTen/SEC |
Virginia Tech |
Florida |
Belk |
ACC |
SEC |
Wake Forest |
Missouri |
Sun |
ACC |
Pac-12 |
Virginia |
California |
Liberty |
Big 12 |
SEC |
Iowa St. |
[Liberty] |
Arizona |
SBC |
MWC |
Louisiana |
Air Force |
Alamo |
Big 12 |
Pac-12 |
Baylor |
USC |
Citrus |
SEC |
BTen/ACC |
Auburn |
Wisconsin |
Outback |
Big Ten |
SEC |
Penn St. |
Tennessee |
Rose |
Big Ten |
Pac-12 |
Minnesota |
Oregon |
Sugar |
Big 12 |
SEC |
Oklahoma |
Georgia |
Birmingham |
AAC |
SEC |
Tulane |
[Florida Int’l.] |
Taxslayer/Gator |
SEC |
Big Ten |
Kentucky |
Indiana |
Idaho Potato |
MAC |
MWC |
Toledo |
Wyoming |
Armed Forces |
Big Ten |
MWC |
Nebraska |
Utah St. |
Mobile Alabama |
MAC |
SBC |
Eastern Michigan |
Georgia Southern |
|
||||
FBS PLAYOFFS |
||||
Fiesta |
Top 4 |
Top 4 |
Georgia |
Ohio St. |
Peach |
Top 4 |
Top 4 |
Clemson |
LSU |
|
||||
Championship |
Fiesta |
Peach |
Georgia |
Clemson |
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections |
November 10, 2019
PiRate College Football Ratings: November 10, 2019
This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads
Tuesday |
November 12 |
|||
Home |
Visitors |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Ohio |
Western Mich. |
-2.6 |
-2.6 |
-2.0 |
Akron |
Eastern Mich. |
-14.9 |
-15.1 |
-16.4 |
|
||||
Wednesday |
November 13 |
|||
Home |
Visitors |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Miami (O) |
Bowling Green |
17.8 |
16.7 |
18.3 |
Toledo |
Northern Illinois |
1.1 |
2.3 |
1.8 |
|
||||
Thursday |
November 14 |
|||
Home |
Visitors |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Kent St. |
Buffalo |
-3.2 |
-4.0 |
-4.4 |
Pittsburgh |
North Carolina |
3.3 |
3.2 |
2.9 |
|
||||
Friday |
November 15 |
|||
Home |
Visitors |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Marshall |
Louisiana Tech |
-3.0 |
-3.9 |
-2.8 |
San Diego St. |
Fresno St. |
4.7 |
5.3 |
3.9 |
|
||||
Saturday |
November 16 |
|||
Home |
Visitors |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Rutgers |
Ohio St. |
-53.2 |
-52.7 |
-55.8 |
Auburn |
Georgia |
-1.2 |
-1.2 |
-1.7 |
Utah |
UCLA |
24.9 |
24.0 |
26.0 |
Nebraska |
Wisconsin |
-14.0 |
-13.1 |
-14.7 |
Michigan |
Michigan St. |
14.5 |
14.1 |
15.5 |
Iowa |
Minnesota |
2.9 |
1.1 |
2.9 |
Oklahoma St. |
Kansas |
17.6 |
17.1 |
17.3 |
California |
USC |
-0.6 |
-1.3 |
-0.5 |
Washington St. |
Stanford |
10.3 |
10.2 |
11.1 |
Oregon St. |
Arizona St. |
-3.9 |
-2.1 |
-4.5 |
Northwestern |
Massachusetts |
48.4 |
45.6 |
48.4 |
Mississippi St. |
Alabama |
-20.2 |
-20.3 |
-16.8 |
Penn St. |
Indiana |
15.8 |
15.7 |
16.1 |
Missouri |
Florida |
-11.4 |
-11.2 |
-11.7 |
Texas Tech |
TCU |
1.3 |
-1.0 |
0.3 |
Temple |
Tulane |
1.7 |
0.3 |
2.0 |
UAB |
UTEP |
22.0 |
19.9 |
21.8 |
Notre Dame |
Navy |
23.0 |
19.0 |
21.8 |
Arkansas St. |
Coastal Carolina |
7.2 |
6.2 |
7.4 |
Georgia Southern |
UL-Monroe |
14.1 |
13.4 |
14.0 |
Texas St. |
Troy |
-7.2 |
-7.3 |
-7.0 |
Clemson |
Wake Forest |
34.5 |
33.0 |
35.4 |
Kansas St. |
West Virginia |
15.1 |
15.4 |
15.9 |
Houston |
Memphis |
-5.9 |
-5.1 |
-4.6 |
Ball St. |
Central Mich. |
4.8 |
3.7 |
4.1 |
Iowa St. |
Texas |
8.3 |
8.5 |
8.8 |
Georgia Tech |
Virginia Tech |
-6.3 |
-7.8 |
-6.6 |
Vanderbilt |
Kentucky |
-12.3 |
-12.4 |
-12.4 |
Duke |
Syracuse |
7.7 |
7.8 |
8.1 |
UNLV |
Hawaii |
-7.5 |
-7.2 |
-6.8 |
Utah St. |
Wyoming |
2.8 |
-0.1 |
2.8 |
Middle Tennessee |
Rice |
12.8 |
11.1 |
13.6 |
South Alabama |
Louisiana |
-24.3 |
-22.1 |
-25.2 |
UTSA |
Southern Miss. |
-18.5 |
-15.2 |
-19.0 |
Ole Miss |
LSU |
-21.7 |
-20.1 |
-21.7 |
South Florida |
Cincinnati |
-13.2 |
-11.8 |
-13.4 |
Colorado St. |
Air Force |
-15.1 |
-12.8 |
-15.3 |
Baylor |
Oklahoma |
-6.3 |
-5.4 |
-6.4 |
Texas A&M |
South Carolina |
8.9 |
9.0 |
8.6 |
North Carolina St. |
Louisville |
0.5 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
Georgia St. |
Appalachian St. |
-11.6 |
-9.3 |
-11.3 |
Boise St. |
New Mexico |
28.6 |
26.2 |
29.9 |
Oregon |
Arizona |
27.5 |
27.9 |
29.2 |
FBS vs. |
FCS |
PiRate |
Florida St. |
Alabama St. |
39 |
Army |
VMI |
31 |
BYU |
Idaho St. |
31 |
New Mexico St. |
Incarnate Word |
10 |
This Week’s PiRate Ratings
PiRate Ratings |
|||||
# |
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
1 |
Ohio St. |
140.6 |
139.8 |
141.9 |
140.8 |
2 |
Clemson |
135.9 |
133.8 |
137.0 |
135.6 |
3 |
Alabama |
134.3 |
131.1 |
134.8 |
133.4 |
4 |
L S U |
131.5 |
129.3 |
131.6 |
130.8 |
5 |
Georgia |
127.1 |
125.3 |
127.3 |
126.6 |
6 |
Florida |
125.3 |
122.6 |
124.9 |
124.2 |
7 |
Utah |
124.0 |
122.9 |
124.8 |
123.9 |
8 |
Penn St. |
123.6 |
122.7 |
123.7 |
123.4 |
9 |
Michigan |
123.3 |
121.9 |
123.6 |
122.9 |
10 |
Auburn |
122.8 |
121.1 |
122.6 |
122.2 |
11 |
Oklahoma |
122.4 |
121.6 |
121.9 |
122.0 |
12 |
Oregon |
121.5 |
121.6 |
122.8 |
122.0 |
13 |
Wisconsin |
120.4 |
120.0 |
120.3 |
120.2 |
14 |
Minnesota |
118.9 |
118.8 |
118.8 |
118.8 |
15 |
Iowa |
118.8 |
117.0 |
118.7 |
118.1 |
16 |
Notre Dame |
118.3 |
116.8 |
118.1 |
117.7 |
17 |
Iowa St. |
115.6 |
116.2 |
116.0 |
115.9 |
18 |
Texas A&M |
116.5 |
114.9 |
115.4 |
115.6 |
19 |
Washington |
113.8 |
113.5 |
114.8 |
114.0 |
20 |
Baylor |
113.2 |
113.2 |
112.5 |
113.0 |
21 |
Kansas St. |
112.2 |
112.1 |
112.2 |
112.2 |
22 |
Central Florida |
111.5 |
110.8 |
112.0 |
111.4 |
23 |
Mississippi St. |
111.1 |
107.8 |
115.0 |
111.3 |
24 |
Indiana |
110.9 |
109.9 |
110.6 |
110.5 |
25 |
Oklahoma St. |
110.3 |
111.0 |
110.0 |
110.4 |
26 |
Texas |
110.3 |
110.6 |
110.3 |
110.4 |
27 |
Washington St. |
110.6 |
109.7 |
110.9 |
110.4 |
28 |
Missouri |
110.9 |
108.4 |
110.2 |
109.8 |
29 |
Michigan St. |
110.3 |
109.4 |
109.6 |
109.8 |
30 |
South Carolina |
110.6 |
108.9 |
109.8 |
109.8 |
31 |
Tennessee |
109.9 |
109.7 |
109.2 |
109.6 |
32 |
Miami (Fla.) |
108.3 |
108.0 |
109.5 |
108.6 |
33 |
U S C |
108.2 |
108.7 |
108.7 |
108.6 |
34 |
T C U |
107.4 |
109.9 |
107.7 |
108.3 |
35 |
Kentucky |
108.3 |
106.9 |
107.0 |
107.4 |
36 |
Cincinnati |
107.3 |
106.8 |
107.7 |
107.3 |
37 |
Virginia |
107.1 |
107.0 |
107.1 |
107.1 |
38 |
Ole Miss |
106.8 |
106.1 |
106.9 |
106.6 |
39 |
Arizona St. |
106.6 |
105.9 |
106.9 |
106.5 |
40 |
Memphis |
106.2 |
106.2 |
107.0 |
106.5 |
41 |
Appalachian St. |
106.6 |
105.6 |
106.0 |
106.1 |
42 |
Texas Tech |
106.2 |
106.4 |
105.5 |
106.0 |
43 |
Pittsburgh |
106.0 |
105.6 |
106.3 |
106.0 |
44 |
North Carolina |
105.7 |
105.5 |
106.4 |
105.9 |
45 |
Boise St. |
105.7 |
105.7 |
105.7 |
105.7 |
46 |
SMU |
105.2 |
104.9 |
105.9 |
105.3 |
47 |
California |
104.6 |
104.3 |
105.3 |
104.7 |
48 |
Air Force |
104.0 |
105.3 |
104.8 |
104.7 |
49 |
Virginia Tech |
104.4 |
104.5 |
105.1 |
104.7 |
50 |
Florida St. |
104.4 |
104.4 |
104.6 |
104.5 |
51 |
Wake Forest |
104.4 |
103.8 |
104.7 |
104.3 |
52 |
Illinois |
103.8 |
104.7 |
103.6 |
104.1 |
53 |
Purdue |
103.7 |
103.5 |
103.1 |
103.4 |
54 |
Nebraska |
103.4 |
103.9 |
102.6 |
103.3 |
55 |
Duke |
103.5 |
102.7 |
103.2 |
103.1 |
56 |
Stanford |
103.3 |
102.5 |
102.8 |
102.9 |
57 |
BYU |
102.6 |
102.8 |
102.6 |
102.7 |
58 |
Boston College |
102.1 |
101.7 |
102.3 |
102.0 |
59 |
U C L A |
102.0 |
101.9 |
101.8 |
101.9 |
60 |
Louisiana |
101.3 |
101.6 |
101.4 |
101.4 |
61 |
Northwestern |
102.1 |
101.0 |
100.7 |
101.3 |
62 |
Tulane |
100.0 |
100.8 |
100.5 |
100.4 |
63 |
Wyoming |
99.3 |
101.4 |
100.0 |
100.2 |
64 |
Oregon St. |
99.8 |
100.8 |
99.5 |
100.0 |
65 |
West Virginia |
100.1 |
99.7 |
99.3 |
99.7 |
66 |
Navy |
98.2 |
100.8 |
99.2 |
99.4 |
67 |
Utah St. |
99.2 |
98.4 |
99.8 |
99.1 |
68 |
Temple |
98.6 |
98.1 |
99.6 |
98.8 |
69 |
Louisville |
98.8 |
98.5 |
98.6 |
98.6 |
70 |
Syracuse |
98.8 |
98.0 |
98.1 |
98.3 |
71 |
Florida Atlantic |
97.8 |
97.8 |
99.2 |
98.3 |
72 |
Houston |
97.3 |
98.2 |
99.4 |
98.3 |
73 |
Western Michigan |
98.4 |
97.4 |
98.1 |
98.0 |
74 |
Louisiana Tech |
97.1 |
97.5 |
97.6 |
97.4 |
75 |
San Diego St. |
96.6 |
98.2 |
96.2 |
97.0 |
76 |
Arizona |
97.0 |
96.8 |
96.5 |
96.8 |
77 |
Georgia Southern |
96.9 |
96.7 |
96.4 |
96.7 |
78 |
Southern Miss. |
96.7 |
95.3 |
97.1 |
96.4 |
79 |
Maryland |
97.2 |
96.0 |
95.6 |
96.3 |
80 |
Kansas |
95.8 |
96.8 |
95.7 |
96.1 |
81 |
Colorado |
96.2 |
96.0 |
96.0 |
96.0 |
82 |
North Carolina St. |
96.2 |
95.6 |
96.0 |
95.9 |
83 |
Fresno St. |
94.9 |
95.9 |
95.3 |
95.4 |
84 |
Hawaii |
94.9 |
96.2 |
93.8 |
95.0 |
85 |
Army |
94.9 |
95.1 |
94.4 |
94.8 |
86 |
Georgia Tech |
95.1 |
93.7 |
95.5 |
94.8 |
87 |
Tulsa |
93.3 |
94.2 |
94.6 |
94.0 |
88 |
Buffalo |
93.1 |
93.8 |
94.6 |
93.8 |
89 |
Vanderbilt |
94.5 |
93.0 |
93.1 |
93.5 |
90 |
Western Kentucky |
92.7 |
93.6 |
94.3 |
93.5 |
91 |
Ohio |
93.3 |
92.3 |
93.6 |
93.1 |
92 |
Georgia St. |
92.5 |
93.8 |
92.2 |
92.8 |
93 |
South Florida |
91.1 |
92.0 |
91.3 |
91.5 |
94 |
Troy |
91.6 |
92.1 |
90.5 |
91.4 |
95 |
Arkansas St. |
91.3 |
91.6 |
91.2 |
91.4 |
96 |
Marshall |
91.0 |
90.6 |
91.8 |
91.1 |
97 |
Liberty |
90.1 |
91.2 |
90.4 |
90.5 |
98 |
Ball St. |
90.6 |
90.2 |
90.8 |
90.5 |
99 |
Miami (Ohio) |
90.1 |
88.9 |
90.7 |
89.9 |
100 |
Middle Tennessee |
90.0 |
89.2 |
90.1 |
89.8 |
101 |
Northern Illinois |
89.7 |
88.9 |
89.8 |
89.5 |
102 |
Central Michigan |
88.4 |
89.0 |
89.3 |
88.9 |
103 |
Colorado St. |
87.4 |
91.0 |
88.0 |
88.8 |
104 |
Toledo |
88.4 |
88.7 |
89.1 |
88.7 |
105 |
San Jose St. |
88.0 |
89.9 |
88.2 |
88.7 |
106 |
U A B |
87.7 |
89.5 |
88.1 |
88.5 |
107 |
Nevada |
87.8 |
89.4 |
87.3 |
88.2 |
108 |
North Texas |
87.8 |
87.4 |
88.1 |
87.8 |
109 |
Coastal Carolina |
87.2 |
88.4 |
86.8 |
87.5 |
110 |
Kent St. |
87.4 |
87.2 |
87.7 |
87.4 |
111 |
Arkansas |
87.1 |
87.0 |
86.3 |
86.8 |
112 |
Charlotte |
85.8 |
86.2 |
86.2 |
86.1 |
113 |
Louisiana-Monroe |
85.8 |
86.4 |
85.4 |
85.9 |
114 |
Florida Int’l. |
85.5 |
85.2 |
85.2 |
85.3 |
115 |
Eastern Michigan |
84.4 |
84.5 |
84.7 |
84.6 |
116 |
East Carolina |
83.6 |
85.0 |
84.0 |
84.2 |
117 |
Rutgers |
84.4 |
84.1 |
83.2 |
83.9 |
118 |
U N L V |
83.4 |
85.0 |
83.0 |
83.8 |
119 |
Texas St. |
81.8 |
82.3 |
81.0 |
81.7 |
120 |
New Mexico |
80.1 |
82.5 |
78.8 |
80.5 |
121 |
Rice |
79.7 |
80.6 |
78.9 |
79.8 |
122 |
Texas-San Antonio |
75.7 |
77.7 |
75.6 |
76.3 |
123 |
New Mexico St. |
75.7 |
77.5 |
75.5 |
76.2 |
124 |
South Alabama |
74.5 |
77.0 |
73.7 |
75.1 |
125 |
Bowling Green |
74.3 |
74.1 |
74.3 |
74.3 |
126 |
Old Dominion |
73.7 |
74.0 |
73.8 |
73.8 |
127 |
Connecticut |
70.9 |
73.7 |
69.9 |
71.5 |
128 |
U T E P |
68.8 |
72.7 |
69.4 |
70.3 |
129 |
Akron |
67.1 |
66.9 |
65.8 |
66.6 |
130 |
Massachusetts |
56.3 |
57.9 |
54.8 |
56.3 |
Conference Power Ratings |
||
# |
League |
Average |
1 |
SEC |
113.4 |
2 |
BTen |
111.2 |
3 |
B12 |
109.4 |
4 |
P12 |
107.3 |
5 |
ACC |
105.0 |
6 |
AAC |
97.4 |
7 |
MWC |
93.9 |
8 |
SUN |
91.0 |
9 |
Ind |
89.7 |
10 |
MAC |
87.1 |
11 |
CUSA |
86.7 |
Our Guess at Top 6 |
|
1 |
LSU |
2 |
Ohio St. |
3 |
Clemson |
4 |
Alabama |
5 |
Georgia |
6 |
Oregon |
Top 5 Group of 5 |
|
1 |
Cincinnati |
2 |
Memphis |
3 |
Boise St. |
4 |
Navy |
5 |
SMU |
PiRate Ratings By Conference
American Athletic Conference |
||||||
East Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
AAC |
Overall |
Central Florida |
111.5 |
110.8 |
112.0 |
111.4 |
4-2 |
7-3 |
Cincinnati |
107.3 |
106.8 |
107.7 |
107.3 |
5-0 |
8-1 |
Temple |
98.6 |
98.1 |
99.6 |
98.8 |
3-2 |
6-3 |
South Florida |
91.1 |
92.0 |
91.3 |
91.5 |
2-3 |
4-5 |
East Carolina |
83.6 |
85.0 |
84.0 |
84.2 |
0-6 |
3-7 |
Connecticut |
70.9 |
73.7 |
69.9 |
71.5 |
0-6 |
2-8 |
|
||||||
West Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
AAC |
Overall |
Memphis |
106.2 |
106.2 |
107.0 |
106.5 |
4-1 |
8-1 |
SMU |
105.2 |
104.9 |
105.9 |
105.3 |
5-1 |
9-1 |
Tulane |
100.0 |
100.8 |
100.5 |
100.4 |
3-2 |
6-3 |
Navy |
98.2 |
100.8 |
99.2 |
99.4 |
5-1 |
7-1 |
Houston |
97.3 |
98.2 |
99.4 |
98.3 |
1-4 |
3-6 |
Tulsa |
93.3 |
94.2 |
94.6 |
94.0 |
1-5 |
3-7 |
AAC Averages |
96.9 |
97.6 |
97.6 |
97.4 |
||
|
||||||
Atlantic Coast Conference |
||||||
Atlantic Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
ACC |
Overall |
Clemson |
135.9 |
133.8 |
137.0 |
135.6 |
7-0 |
10-0 |
Florida St. |
104.4 |
104.4 |
104.6 |
104.5 |
4-4 |
5-5 |
Wake Forest |
104.4 |
103.8 |
104.7 |
104.3 |
3-2 |
7-2 |
Boston College |
102.1 |
101.7 |
102.3 |
102.0 |
3-4 |
5-5 |
Louisville |
98.8 |
98.5 |
98.6 |
98.6 |
3-3 |
5-4 |
Syracuse |
98.8 |
98.0 |
98.1 |
98.3 |
0-5 |
3-6 |
North Carolina St. |
96.2 |
95.6 |
96.0 |
95.9 |
1-4 |
4-5 |
|
||||||
Coastal Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
ACC |
Overall |
Miami (Fla.) |
108.3 |
108.0 |
109.5 |
108.6 |
4-3 |
6-4 |
Virginia |
107.1 |
107.0 |
107.1 |
107.1 |
5-2 |
7-3 |
Pittsburgh |
106.0 |
105.6 |
106.3 |
106.0 |
3-2 |
6-3 |
North Carolina |
105.7 |
105.5 |
106.4 |
105.9 |
3-3 |
4-5 |
Virginia Tech |
104.4 |
104.5 |
105.1 |
104.7 |
4-2 |
6-3 |
Duke |
103.5 |
102.7 |
103.2 |
103.1 |
2-4 |
4-5 |
Georgia Tech |
95.1 |
93.7 |
95.5 |
94.8 |
1-5 |
2-7 |
ACC Averages |
105.1 |
104.5 |
105.3 |
105.0 |
||
|
||||||
Big 12 Conference |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
B12 |
Overall |
Oklahoma |
122.4 |
121.6 |
121.9 |
122.0 |
5-1 |
8-1 |
Iowa St. |
115.6 |
116.2 |
116.0 |
115.9 |
3-3 |
5-4 |
Baylor |
113.2 |
113.2 |
112.5 |
113.0 |
6-0 |
9-0 |
Kansas St. |
112.2 |
112.1 |
112.2 |
112.2 |
3-3 |
6-3 |
Oklahoma St. |
110.3 |
111.0 |
110.0 |
110.4 |
3-3 |
6-3 |
Texas |
110.3 |
110.6 |
110.3 |
110.4 |
4-2 |
6-3 |
T C U |
107.4 |
109.9 |
107.7 |
108.3 |
2-4 |
4-5 |
Texas Tech |
106.2 |
106.4 |
105.5 |
106.0 |
2-4 |
4-5 |
West Virginia |
100.1 |
99.7 |
99.3 |
99.7 |
1-5 |
3-6 |
Kansas |
95.8 |
96.8 |
95.7 |
96.1 |
1-5 |
3-6 |
Big 12 Averages |
109.3 |
109.7 |
109.1 |
109.4 |
||
|
||||||
Big Ten Conference |
||||||
East Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
BTen |
Overall |
Ohio St. |
140.6 |
139.8 |
141.9 |
140.8 |
6-0 |
9-0 |
Penn St. |
123.6 |
122.7 |
123.7 |
123.4 |
5-1 |
8-1 |
Michigan |
123.3 |
121.9 |
123.6 |
122.9 |
4-2 |
7-2 |
Indiana |
110.9 |
109.9 |
110.6 |
110.5 |
4-2 |
7-2 |
Michigan St. |
110.3 |
109.4 |
109.6 |
109.8 |
2-4 |
4-5 |
Maryland |
97.2 |
96.0 |
95.6 |
96.3 |
1-6 |
3-7 |
Rutgers |
84.4 |
84.1 |
83.2 |
83.9 |
0-6 |
2-7 |
|
||||||
West Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
BTen |
Overall |
Wisconsin |
120.4 |
120.0 |
120.3 |
120.2 |
4-2 |
7-2 |
Minnesota |
118.9 |
118.8 |
118.8 |
118.8 |
6-0 |
9-0 |
Iowa |
118.8 |
117.0 |
118.7 |
118.1 |
3-3 |
6-3 |
Illinois |
103.8 |
104.7 |
103.6 |
104.1 |
4-3 |
6-4 |
Purdue |
103.7 |
103.5 |
103.1 |
103.4 |
3-4 |
4-6 |
Nebraska |
103.4 |
103.9 |
102.6 |
103.3 |
2-4 |
4-5 |
Northwestern |
102.1 |
101.0 |
100.7 |
101.3 |
0-7 |
1-8 |
Big Ten Averages |
111.5 |
110.9 |
111.1 |
111.2 |
||
|
||||||
Conference USA |
||||||
East Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
CUSA |
Overall |
Florida Atlantic |
97.8 |
97.8 |
99.2 |
98.3 |
5-1 |
7-3 |
Western Kentucky |
92.7 |
93.6 |
94.3 |
93.5 |
4-2 |
6-4 |
Marshall |
91.0 |
90.6 |
91.8 |
91.1 |
4-1 |
6-3 |
Middle Tennessee |
90.0 |
89.2 |
90.1 |
89.8 |
2-3 |
3-6 |
Charlotte |
85.8 |
86.2 |
86.2 |
86.1 |
3-3 |
5-5 |
Florida Int’l. |
85.5 |
85.2 |
85.2 |
85.3 |
3-4 |
5-5 |
Old Dominion |
73.7 |
74.0 |
73.8 |
73.8 |
0-6 |
1-9 |
|
||||||
West Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
CUSA |
Overall |
Louisiana Tech |
97.1 |
97.5 |
97.6 |
97.4 |
5-0 |
8-1 |
Southern Miss. |
96.7 |
95.3 |
97.1 |
96.4 |
4-1 |
6-3 |
U A B |
87.7 |
89.5 |
88.1 |
88.5 |
3-2 |
6-3 |
North Texas |
87.8 |
87.4 |
88.1 |
87.8 |
3-3 |
4-6 |
Rice |
79.7 |
80.6 |
78.9 |
79.8 |
0-5 |
0-9 |
Texas-San Antonio |
75.7 |
77.7 |
75.6 |
76.3 |
3-2 |
4-5 |
U T E P |
68.8 |
72.7 |
69.4 |
70.3 |
0-6 |
1-8 |
CUSA Averages |
86.4 |
87.0 |
86.8 |
86.7 |
||
|
||||||
FBS Independents |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
Conf. |
Overall |
Notre Dame |
118.3 |
116.8 |
118.1 |
117.7 |
x |
7-2 |
BYU |
102.6 |
102.8 |
102.6 |
102.7 |
x |
5-4 |
Army |
94.9 |
95.1 |
94.4 |
94.8 |
x |
4-6 |
Liberty |
90.1 |
91.2 |
90.4 |
90.5 |
x |
6-4 |
New Mexico St. |
75.7 |
77.5 |
75.5 |
76.2 |
x |
0-9 |
Massachusetts |
56.3 |
57.9 |
54.8 |
56.3 |
x |
1-9 |
Indep. Averages |
89.6 |
90.2 |
89.3 |
89.7 |
||
|
||||||
Mid-American Conference |
||||||
East Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
MAC |
Overall |
Buffalo |
93.1 |
93.8 |
94.6 |
93.8 |
3-2 |
5-4 |
Ohio |
93.3 |
92.3 |
93.6 |
93.1 |
3-2 |
4-5 |
Miami (Ohio) |
90.1 |
88.9 |
90.7 |
89.9 |
4-1 |
5-4 |
Kent St. |
87.4 |
87.2 |
87.7 |
87.4 |
2-3 |
3-6 |
Bowling Green |
74.3 |
74.1 |
74.3 |
74.3 |
2-3 |
3-6 |
Akron |
67.1 |
66.9 |
65.8 |
66.6 |
0-5 |
0-9 |
|
||||||
West Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
MAC |
Overall |
Western Michigan |
98.4 |
97.4 |
98.1 |
98.0 |
4-2 |
6-4 |
Ball St. |
90.6 |
90.2 |
90.8 |
90.5 |
3-2 |
4-5 |
Northern Illinois |
89.7 |
88.9 |
89.8 |
89.5 |
2-3 |
3-6 |
Central Michigan |
88.4 |
89.0 |
89.3 |
88.9 |
4-2 |
6-4 |
Toledo |
88.4 |
88.7 |
89.1 |
88.7 |
3-2 |
6-3 |
Eastern Michigan |
84.4 |
84.5 |
84.7 |
84.6 |
1-4 |
4-5 |
MAC Averages |
87.1 |
86.8 |
87.4 |
87.1 |
||
|
||||||
Mountain West Conference |
||||||
Mountain Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
MWC |
Overall |
Boise St. |
105.7 |
105.7 |
105.7 |
105.7 |
5-0 |
8-1 |
Air Force |
104.0 |
105.3 |
104.8 |
104.7 |
4-1 |
7-2 |
Wyoming |
99.3 |
101.4 |
100.0 |
100.2 |
3-2 |
6-3 |
Utah St. |
99.2 |
98.4 |
99.8 |
99.1 |
4-1 |
5-4 |
Colorado St. |
87.4 |
91.0 |
88.0 |
88.8 |
3-2 |
4-5 |
New Mexico |
80.1 |
82.5 |
78.8 |
80.5 |
0-5 |
2-7 |
|
||||||
West Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
MWC |
Overall |
San Diego St. |
96.6 |
98.2 |
96.2 |
97.0 |
4-2 |
7-2 |
Fresno St. |
94.9 |
95.9 |
95.3 |
95.4 |
2-3 |
4-5 |
Hawaii |
94.9 |
96.2 |
93.8 |
95.0 |
3-3 |
6-4 |
San Jose St. |
88.0 |
89.9 |
88.2 |
88.7 |
1-5 |
4-6 |
Nevada |
87.8 |
89.4 |
87.3 |
88.2 |
3-3 |
6-4 |
U N L V |
83.4 |
85.0 |
83.0 |
83.8 |
1-5 |
2-7 |
MWC Averages |
93.4 |
94.9 |
93.4 |
93.9 |
||
|
||||||
Pac-12 Conference |
||||||
North Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
P12 |
Overall |
Oregon |
121.5 |
121.6 |
122.8 |
122.0 |
6-0 |
8-1 |
Washington |
113.8 |
113.5 |
114.8 |
114.0 |
3-4 |
6-4 |
Washington St. |
110.6 |
109.7 |
110.9 |
110.4 |
1-5 |
4-5 |
California |
104.6 |
104.3 |
105.3 |
104.7 |
2-4 |
5-4 |
Stanford |
103.3 |
102.5 |
102.8 |
102.9 |
3-4 |
4-5 |
Oregon St. |
99.8 |
100.8 |
99.5 |
100.0 |
3-3 |
4-5 |
|
||||||
South Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
P12 |
Overall |
Utah |
124.0 |
122.9 |
124.8 |
123.9 |
5-1 |
8-1 |
U S C |
108.2 |
108.7 |
108.7 |
108.6 |
5-2 |
6-4 |
Arizona St. |
106.6 |
105.9 |
106.9 |
106.5 |
2-4 |
5-4 |
U C L A |
102.0 |
101.9 |
101.8 |
101.9 |
4-2 |
4-5 |
Arizona |
97.0 |
96.8 |
96.5 |
96.8 |
2-4 |
4-5 |
Colorado |
96.2 |
96.0 |
96.0 |
96.0 |
2-5 |
4-6 |
Pac-12 Averages |
107.3 |
107.1 |
107.6 |
107.3 |
||
|
||||||
Southeastern Conference |
||||||
East Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
SEC |
Overall |
Georgia |
127.1 |
125.3 |
127.3 |
126.6 |
5-1 |
8-1 |
Florida |
125.3 |
122.6 |
124.9 |
124.2 |
6-2 |
8-2 |
Missouri |
110.9 |
108.4 |
110.2 |
109.8 |
2-3 |
5-4 |
South Carolina |
110.6 |
108.9 |
109.8 |
109.8 |
3-4 |
4-6 |
Tennessee |
109.9 |
109.7 |
109.2 |
109.6 |
3-3 |
5-5 |
Kentucky |
108.3 |
106.9 |
107.0 |
107.4 |
2-5 |
4-5 |
Vanderbilt |
94.5 |
93.0 |
93.1 |
93.5 |
1-5 |
2-7 |
|
||||||
West Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
SEC |
Overall |
Alabama |
134.3 |
131.1 |
134.8 |
133.4 |
5-1 |
8-1 |
L S U |
131.5 |
129.3 |
131.6 |
130.8 |
5-0 |
9-0 |
Auburn |
122.8 |
121.1 |
122.6 |
122.2 |
4-2 |
7-2 |
Texas A&M |
116.5 |
114.9 |
115.4 |
115.6 |
3-2 |
6-3 |
Mississippi St. |
111.1 |
107.8 |
115.0 |
111.3 |
2-4 |
4-5 |
Ole Miss |
106.8 |
106.1 |
106.9 |
106.6 |
2-4 |
4-6 |
Arkansas |
87.1 |
87.0 |
86.3 |
86.8 |
0-6 |
2-8 |
SEC Averages |
114.1 |
112.3 |
113.9 |
113.4 |
||
|
||||||
Sunbelt Conference |
||||||
East Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
SBC |
Overall |
Appalachian St. |
106.6 |
105.6 |
106.0 |
106.1 |
4-1 |
8-1 |
Georgia Southern |
96.9 |
96.7 |
96.4 |
96.7 |
3-2 |
5-4 |
Georgia St. |
92.5 |
93.8 |
92.2 |
92.8 |
3-2 |
6-3 |
Troy |
91.6 |
92.1 |
90.5 |
91.4 |
2-3 |
4-5 |
Coastal Carolina |
87.2 |
88.4 |
86.8 |
87.5 |
1-4 |
4-5 |
|
||||||
West Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
SBC |
Overall |
Louisiana |
101.3 |
101.6 |
101.4 |
101.4 |
4-1 |
7-2 |
Arkansas St. |
91.3 |
91.6 |
91.2 |
91.4 |
3-2 |
5-4 |
Louisiana-Monroe |
85.8 |
86.4 |
85.4 |
85.9 |
3-2 |
4-5 |
Texas St. |
81.8 |
82.3 |
81.0 |
81.7 |
2-3 |
3-6 |
South Alabama |
74.5 |
77.0 |
73.7 |
75.1 |
0-5 |
1-8 |
SBC Averages |
91.0 |
91.6 |
90.5 |
91.0 |
This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections
Bowl |
Conf |
Conf |
Team |
Team |
Bahamas |
MAC |
CUSA |
Miami (O) |
Florida Atlantic |
Frisco |
AAC |
At-large |
SMU |
[Air Force] |
Cure |
AAC |
SBC |
Memphis |
Georgia Southern |
New Mexico |
CUSA |
MWC |
Southern Miss. |
Wyoming |
Boca Raton |
AAC |
MAC |
Cincinnati |
Western Michigan |
Camellia |
MAC |
SBC |
Buffalo |
Georgia St. |
Las Vegas |
MWC #1 |
Pac-12 |
Hawaii |
[Toledo] |
New Orleans |
CUSA |
SBC #1 |
Louisiana Tech |
Louisiana |
Gasparilla |
AAC |
CUSA |
Navy |
Western Kentucky |
Hawaii |
BYU/MWC |
AAC |
BYU |
Central Florida |
Independence |
ACC |
SEC |
Florida St. |
[UAB] |
Quick Lane |
ACC |
Big Ten |
North Carolina |
Michigan St. |
Military |
ACC |
AAC |
Virginia |
Temple |
Pinstripe |
ACC |
Big Ten |
Pittsburgh |
Illinois |
Texas |
Big 12 |
SEC |
Texas |
Texas A&M |
Holiday |
Pac-12 |
Big Ten |
Washington |
Michigan |
Cheez-It |
Big 12 |
Pac-12 |
Texas Tech |
[San Jose St.] |
Camping World |
ACC |
Big 12 |
Notre Dame |
Kansas St. |
Cotton |
At-large |
At-large |
Baylor |
Boise St. |
First Responder |
CUSA |
Big 12 |
Marshall |
[Eastern Michigan] |
Redbox |
Pac-12 |
Big Ten |
Washington St. |
Iowa |
Music City |
SEC |
ACC |
[Liberty] |
Louisville |
Orange |
ACC |
BTen/SEC |
Virginia Tech |
Georgia |
Belk |
ACC |
SEC |
Wake Forest |
Missouri * |
Sun |
ACC |
Pac-12 |
Miami (Fla.) |
Arizona St. |
Liberty |
Big 12 |
SEC |
Iowa St. |
Kentucky |
Arizona |
SBC |
MWC |
Appalachian St. |
San Diego St. |
Alamo |
Big 12 |
Pac-12 |
Oklahoma St. |
USC |
Citrus |
SEC |
BTen/ACC |
Florida |
Wisconsin |
Outback |
Big Ten |
SEC |
Penn St. |
Auburn |
Rose |
Big Ten |
Pac-12 |
Minnesota |
Utah |
Sugar |
Big 12 |
SEC |
Oklahoma |
Alabama |
Birmingham |
AAC |
SEC |
Tulane |
[Charlotte] |
Taxslayer/Gator |
SEC |
Big Ten |
Tennessee |
Indiana |
Idaho Potato |
MAC |
MWC |
Ball St. |
Utah St. |
Armed Forces |
Big Ten |
MWC |
Nebraska |
[Nevada] |
Mobile Alabama |
MAC |
SBC |
Central Michigan |
Arkansas St. |
FBS PLAYOFFS |
||||
Fiesta |
Top 4 |
Top 4 |
LSU |
Clemson |
Peach |
Top 4 |
Top 4 |
Ohio St. |
Oregon |
Championship |
Fiesta |
Peach |
Clemson |
Ohio St. |
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections* Missouri is on probation and technically not eligible for a bowl, but the Tigers have filed an appeal that has yet to be judged by the NCAA Infractions Committee. If they do not issue a decision before December, then Missouri can accept a bowl bid even though they have a bowl ban in place. |
Questions and Answers
Every year, we receive numerous questions from you the reader. When we get enough, we try to answer them in one post. The number one question we receive from people that know us is: “How do you ask a question on your site?”
So we can reduce Spam and not give a link, this is how you do it. Go to our sister site that you can see to the side on our Blogroll under “The PiRate Ratings, ” which is the 6th one down the page. This will take you to our sister website. Once at this other website, click on the Contact Us link, and you can ask your question after you fill out your information.
Here are the questions we have received since the start of football season. Some of these have been asked every year for the last five or six seasons.
Q1. What does PiRate, Mean, and Bias mean in your ratings?
A1. We have one basic power rating that we compile based on game statistics and strength of schedule. We have three ways of calculating this data. The PiRate Rating is our old formula that we have used for many years with little change in calculation. We can also estimate FCS team power ratings with this formula. The Mean formula takes all the data and weighs each item identically. There are seven basic grade scores that are then divided by seven to get this rating. The Bias formula does apply weighted grades to the parts of the game that we believe are more important than others, thus the grading is biased in favor of four of the seven grading scores.
Q2. What is your home field advantage for football?
A2. The PiRate Ratings use differing home field advantages for every game. If Miami of Florida is hosting Florida International, the home field advantage is going to be much different than if they were to host Hawaii, Buffalo, or Washington. Some of the time, a road team might actually receive some advantage over the home team. Let’s say a 2-7 team with little fan support is hosting a team from an adjacent state in a conference game, when the other team is trying to get bowl eligible, and there are fans of this other team just 45 minutes away from the visiting team’s stadium. Let’s say that about 75% of the fans at the game will be fans of the visiting team, and the home team will have to use visual signals to snap the ball. It happens.
Q3. How come you have a 5-2 team rated ahead of a 7-0 team in the same conference, and the 5-2 team lost to the 7-0 team in September?
A3. The PiRate Ratings aren’t about what happened three, four, five, or six weeks ago. The goal of these ratings is to try to predict the outcomes of this week’s games. For instance, you might notice that Alabama is still rated ahead of LSU in our ratings. We believe if the two teams were to play again this week on a neutral field, Alabama would win the game. It might be a lot easier to see this like baseball. The Padres might beat the Dodgers on Thursday and Friday, but the Dodgers will still be favored to beat them on Saturday and Sunday. These ratings are meant to be used to predict the future and not rate the past.
Q4. Why do you like Ohio State so much and always move them up to number one every year?
A4. These are mechanical power ratings. We could teach somebody else how to calculate the ratings with maybe 3 to 4 hours of teaching. There is no real human factor where we can say that Ohio State is our favorite team, so let’s make them number one. Ohio State is number one because the statistical numbers make them number one. We like Ohio State no more or less than Illinois or Michigan or Rice or San Jose St. What we love is to be accurate. Thus, the real thing we root to be number one is our ratings.
Q5. What does your power rating number mean for each team?
A5. Our ratings are calculated so that the average FBS team is rated 100.00. If a team has a power rating of 106.8, this means they are 6.8 points better than the average FBS team. If they have a rating of 87.4, this means they are 12.6 points weaker than the average team.
Q6. Why do you only issue one spread for FBS vs. FCS games?
A6. The Mean and Bias ratings require more statistical analysis using a lot more data than the regular PiRate Rating. We cannot calculate these ratings for FCS teams. The regular PiRate Rating consists of data calculation that takes about 3 minutes per FCS team. And, the PiRate Rating for FCS teams is only an approximation rating. We do not use the same adjustment to the ratings of FBS teams that play FCS teams.
Q7. I noticed that Nebraska did not play this weekend, yet your rating for Nebraska went up a little. Why is this?
A7. There are two factors at play here. Nebraska’s opponents played to date did play this past weekend, and their ratings adjusted, which adjusted Nebraska’s rating. Also, the week off usually helps teams. Thus, Nebraska’s three ratings rose by about 0.6 points each.
Q8. How do you calculate your Bowl and Playoff Projections? It does not look like you use the “if the season ended today” method.
A8. We do not use the “if the season ended today” method. We estimate each team’s final won-loss record and then try to do the bowl committees’ work by extending invitations to the bowl teams based on the criteria set in advance. When all of our competitors agreed 100% that Penn State was their choice for the Rose Bowl, we had Minnesota projected there. Expect a bunch more sites to now place Minnesota in the Rose Bowl in their projections.
For what it’s worth, in this week’s projections, we only had 79 bowl eligible teams, which means just one bowl eligible team would be excluded in our mind. Because Missouri could easily lose their appeal before December, then team #79 could become #78. That team this week is Ohio.
Q9. What do you think about the 4-team Playoff?
A9. While we believe that in most years only four teams might be championship quality, we don’t believe that Power 5 conference champions should be left out. At the minimum, the NCAA Playoffs should be a 6-team tournament with all Power 5 conference champions making the playoffs along with the top remaining team. We support the 8-team or even 12-team playoff. In a perfect world, we would support a 12- team playoff with the reduction of bowls to 30. The opening round from 12 to 8 with the top 4 getting byes would be played on the better seeded teams’ home field. The Quarterfinal Round would then be held at four existing bowls, one in each region. For instance, the Pinstripe, Music City, Alamo, and Holiday Bowls could host this round.
Q10. Who is the best team of all time?
A10. We can only offer our choice from teams that we have seen in our lifetime, and then only offer up who we believe was the most dominant team in the year they played. Our answer is the 1971 Nebraska Cornhuskers. They beat teams that finished second, third, and fourth by a combined 105-44, including destroying 11-0 Alabama in the Orange Bowl 38-6. They also beat 8-win Utah State and Iowa State and 7-win Hawaii by a combined 124-9. This team had 8 All-Americans and 19 players that made the All Big 8 teams. 22 players on this team were taken in an NFL Draft after their senior years, including multiple reserves.
Q11. If computers are so incredible, why can’t any beat the spread more than 60% of the time?
A11. That is probably the best question we receive. Computers may or may not be able to beat the spread 60% of the time, but when they do, none of us ever discover this, because it is never made available to the public.
At the Prediction Tracker, where the PiRate Ratings have finished number one against the spread and in picking winners multiple times, in a typical year, the top computer program beats the spread about 56% of the time. The top geniuses in Las Vegas, the ones that are severely restricted in how much they can wager at each book (and frequently hire others to pretend to be innocent bettors with a system to place their bets for them), beat the spread 60-65% of the time.
Before you say that the computers aren’t up to snuff when compared to the Vegas brains, you must understand something. These brainy geniuses don’t pick every game on the board. At the Prediction Tracker, we pick every game against the spread. Some of the multi-millionaires winning in Vegas cannot pick every game and beat 56%. On a typical week, the top bettors might pick as few as three games and seldom more than nine. They tend to go with an odd number of games to avoid a .500 outcome which guarantees a loss. Picking three games and going 2-1 or picking 9 games and going 6-3 on a semi-consistent basis will cause the books to restrict or prohibit these smarts from wagering.
Q12. Why do you withhold basketball ratings until after New Year’s Day?
A12. This isn’t a football question, but six of you have asked this of us. Our college basketball ratings are based on weighted four factors statistics and strength of schedule. Until teams have played about 10 games, the statistics don’t mean enough to be viable. The variance in these stats is much too wide until every team has had 10 games to reduce it. For instance, if we issued ratings today, Utah would be 10 points ahead of Kentucky as the best team. When you win by 94 points over a team rated in the bottom 5, it is like beating Michigan State by 10. Therefore, the ratings need a lot more games to be played before they are worth anything. Starting in January is the perfect fit, since we have minimal football games remaining.
November 3, 2019
PiRate College Football Ratings: November 3, 2019
This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads
Tuesday |
November 5 |
|||
Home |
Visitors |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Toledo |
Kent St. |
2.8 |
3.2 |
3.2 |
Western Michigan |
Ball St. |
10.9 |
10.5 |
10.8 |
|
||||
Wednesday |
November 6 |
|||
Home |
Visitors |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Ohio U |
Miami (O) |
7.4 |
7.8 |
7.5 |
|
||||
Thursday |
November 7 |
|||
Home |
Visitors |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Coastal Carolina |
Louisiana |
-11.7 |
-10.7 |
-12.1 |
South Florida |
Temple |
-3.9 |
-1.8 |
-4.3 |
|
||||
Friday |
November 8 |
|||
Home |
Visitors |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Oregon St. |
Washington |
-11.6 |
-10.2 |
-12.9 |
Tulsa |
Central Florida |
-18.6 |
-17.1 |
-18.3 |
|
||||
Saturday |
November 9 |
|||
Home |
Visitors |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Alabama |
LSU |
9.2 |
8.4 |
9.9 |
Arizona St. |
USC |
2.9 |
1.8 |
3.1 |
Arkansas |
Western Kentucky |
5.8 |
5.1 |
3.9 |
Army |
Massachusetts |
38.5 |
36.9 |
39.1 |
Boise St. |
Wyoming |
9.9 |
7.7 |
9.6 |
Boston College |
Florida St. |
2.6 |
2.4 |
3.0 |
BYU |
Liberty |
17.2 |
15.9 |
17.4 |
California |
Washington St. |
-7.1 |
-6.7 |
-7.3 |
Cincinnati |
Connecticut |
38.8 |
34.5 |
40.2 |
Colorado |
Stanford |
-5.5 |
-5.1 |
-5.6 |
Duke |
Notre Dame |
-7.7 |
-6.5 |
-7.3 |
Florida |
Vanderbilt |
28.5 |
26.9 |
29.3 |
Florida Atlantic |
Florida Int’l. |
9.4 |
9.5 |
10.9 |
Fresno St. |
Utah St. |
-1.0 |
0.9 |
-1.2 |
Georgia |
Missouri |
18.1 |
18.6 |
18.6 |
Hawaii |
San Jose St. |
12.0 |
11.5 |
11.1 |
Kentucky |
Tennessee |
2.2 |
1.0 |
2.0 |
Louisiana Tech |
North Texas |
6.4 |
7.1 |
6.2 |
Miami (Fla.) |
Louisville |
10.7 |
10.4 |
11.8 |
Michigan St. |
Illinois |
14.0 |
12.1 |
13.9 |
Minnesota |
Penn St. |
-3.9 |
-3.1 |
-4.5 |
New Mexico |
Air Force |
-21.4 |
-20.3 |
-23.4 |
North Carolina St. |
Clemson |
-35.7 |
-33.8 |
-36.9 |
Northwestern |
Purdue |
1.5 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
Ohio St. |
Maryland |
42.4 |
42.6 |
44.9 |
Oklahoma |
Iowa St. |
11.8 |
10.3 |
11.2 |
Old Dominion |
UTSA |
0.7 |
-1.1 |
0.9 |
Ole Miss |
New Mexico St. |
33.0 |
30.0 |
32.9 |
San Diego St. |
Nevada |
14.7 |
14.9 |
15.2 |
SMU |
East Carolina |
26.3 |
24.6 |
27.0 |
South Carolina |
Appalachian St. |
8.1 |
7.4 |
8.1 |
Southern Miss. |
UAB |
7.0 |
4.0 |
6.5 |
TCU |
Baylor |
-4.1 |
-1.7 |
-3.2 |
Texas |
Kansas St. |
0.7 |
1.0 |
0.6 |
Texas St. |
South Alabama |
9.8 |
7.8 |
9.8 |
Troy |
Georgia Southern |
-2.9 |
-2.1 |
-3.5 |
UL-Monroe |
Georgia St. |
-4.1 |
-5.0 |
-4.3 |
UTEP |
Charlotte |
-15.1 |
-11.5 |
-14.9 |
Virginia |
Georgia Tech |
15.8 |
17.6 |
15.9 |
Virginia Tech |
Wake Forest |
-1.5 |
-1.0 |
-1.5 |
West Virginia |
Texas Tech |
1.2 |
0.7 |
1.6 |
Wisconsin |
Iowa |
4.3 |
5.7 |
4.3 |
Special Game–150th Anniversary of College Football
Dartmouth and Princeton will play Saturday at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx at 3:30 PM EST. The game is available on ESPNU, and both teams sport perfect 7-0 records in the FCS Division. It will mark the 150th anniversary of college football. Princeton (known then as the College of New Jersey until 1896) and Rutgers met for the first college game in November 6, 1869, and Rutgers won that game 6 goals to 4.
This might be the most important Ivy League game since 8-0-0 Harvard and 8-0-0 Yale battled to an unbelievable 29-29 tie to conclude the 1968 season. Yale led 29-13 with less than a minute to play, and Harvard scored twice with successful two-point conversions to tie the game and claim part of the Ivy League Championship.
Dartmouth and Princeton have been the top two programs in recent Ivy League history. Both teams have enjoyed some incredible seasons in the distant past as well. The 1970 Darmouth team was the best in Ivy League history, as they won the Lambert Trophy for best overall team from the East and finished ranked in the top 20 in the nation after finishing 9-0. That Dartmouth team surrendered just 42 points all season, but they didn’t give up a point in their final four games.
Princeton was one of the final teams in major college football to use the old Single Wing offense. The Tigers went 9-0 and won the Ivy League in 1964, but their 1950 and 1951 teams that went undefeated finished number six in the AP Poll, and star back Dick Kazmaier won the 1951 Heisman Trophy.
The Ivy League isn’t Division 1 any more, and the champion doesn’t even get to go to the FCS Playoffs, but this is still an incredible game worth watching if you have a second monitor to watch in addition to that other 3:30 PM game in Tuscaloosa, AL.
The PiRate Ratings do not rate FCS teams the same way as we rate FBS teams. We can estimate a power rating based on a former PiRate Formula, which we used from 1980 to 1996.
The estimate for this game is:
Dartmouth 19
Princeton 16
This Week’s PiRate Ratings
# |
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
1 |
Ohio St. |
139.0 |
138.1 |
140.1 |
139.1 |
2 |
Clemson |
135.3 |
133.0 |
136.3 |
134.9 |
3 |
Alabama |
135.6 |
132.5 |
136.3 |
134.8 |
4 |
L S U |
129.4 |
127.1 |
129.3 |
128.6 |
5 |
Georgia |
126.7 |
124.8 |
126.7 |
126.1 |
6 |
Penn St. |
124.9 |
124.1 |
125.2 |
124.8 |
7 |
Utah |
123.7 |
122.6 |
124.5 |
123.6 |
8 |
Oklahoma |
123.5 |
122.7 |
123.2 |
123.1 |
9 |
Michigan |
123.0 |
121.6 |
123.3 |
122.6 |
10 |
Auburn |
122.5 |
120.8 |
122.3 |
121.9 |
11 |
Oregon |
121.2 |
121.3 |
122.5 |
121.7 |
12 |
Florida |
122.8 |
119.9 |
122.3 |
121.6 |
13 |
Wisconsin |
120.4 |
120.0 |
120.3 |
120.2 |
14 |
Iowa |
119.1 |
117.3 |
119.0 |
118.4 |
15 |
Minnesota |
118.1 |
117.9 |
117.8 |
117.9 |
16 |
Notre Dame |
116.4 |
114.7 |
116.0 |
115.7 |
17 |
Texas A&M |
116.2 |
114.6 |
115.1 |
115.3 |
18 |
Iowa St. |
114.8 |
115.4 |
115.0 |
115.1 |
19 |
Washington |
114.3 |
114.0 |
115.3 |
114.5 |
20 |
Central Florida |
113.5 |
112.8 |
114.2 |
113.5 |
21 |
Baylor |
113.5 |
113.5 |
112.8 |
113.3 |
22 |
Washington St. |
113.0 |
112.2 |
113.5 |
112.9 |
23 |
Kansas St. |
112.3 |
112.2 |
112.3 |
112.3 |
24 |
Michigan St. |
112.7 |
111.8 |
112.2 |
112.2 |
25 |
Mississippi St. |
110.8 |
107.5 |
114.7 |
111.0 |
26 |
South Carolina |
111.7 |
110.0 |
111.1 |
110.9 |
27 |
Missouri |
111.6 |
109.2 |
111.1 |
110.6 |
28 |
Indiana |
110.6 |
109.6 |
110.3 |
110.2 |
29 |
Oklahoma St. |
110.0 |
110.7 |
109.7 |
110.1 |
30 |
Texas |
109.9 |
110.2 |
109.9 |
110.0 |
31 |
Tennessee |
109.5 |
109.3 |
108.6 |
109.1 |
32 |
T C U |
107.3 |
109.8 |
107.6 |
108.2 |
33 |
Kentucky |
108.7 |
107.3 |
107.6 |
107.9 |
34 |
Virginia |
107.7 |
107.8 |
107.9 |
107.8 |
35 |
U S C |
107.3 |
107.8 |
107.6 |
107.6 |
36 |
Miami (Fla.) |
107.2 |
106.8 |
108.3 |
107.4 |
37 |
Arizona St. |
107.2 |
106.5 |
107.7 |
107.2 |
38 |
Cincinnati |
107.0 |
106.0 |
107.4 |
106.8 |
39 |
Wake Forest |
106.5 |
106.0 |
107.0 |
106.5 |
40 |
SMU |
106.2 |
105.9 |
107.1 |
106.4 |
41 |
Memphis |
105.9 |
105.9 |
106.7 |
106.2 |
42 |
Appalachian St. |
106.6 |
105.6 |
106.0 |
106.1 |
43 |
Ole Miss |
106.4 |
105.4 |
106.3 |
106.0 |
44 |
Boise St. |
106.0 |
105.9 |
106.1 |
106.0 |
45 |
Pittsburgh |
105.7 |
105.3 |
106.0 |
105.7 |
46 |
North Carolina |
105.4 |
105.2 |
106.1 |
105.6 |
47 |
Duke |
105.7 |
105.1 |
105.6 |
105.5 |
48 |
Air Force |
103.7 |
105.0 |
104.5 |
104.4 |
49 |
Texas Tech |
104.4 |
104.6 |
103.5 |
104.2 |
50 |
Stanford |
104.0 |
103.3 |
103.7 |
103.7 |
51 |
Florida St. |
103.6 |
103.5 |
103.6 |
103.6 |
52 |
Purdue |
103.6 |
103.4 |
102.9 |
103.3 |
53 |
BYU |
103.2 |
103.2 |
103.4 |
103.3 |
54 |
Boston College |
103.2 |
102.9 |
103.6 |
103.2 |
55 |
Nebraska |
103.1 |
103.6 |
102.3 |
103.0 |
56 |
California |
102.8 |
102.4 |
103.3 |
102.8 |
57 |
West Virginia |
102.7 |
102.3 |
102.1 |
102.3 |
58 |
Virginia Tech |
102.0 |
102.0 |
102.5 |
102.2 |
59 |
Illinois |
101.7 |
102.6 |
101.3 |
101.9 |
60 |
Northwestern |
102.5 |
101.4 |
101.2 |
101.7 |
61 |
U C L A |
101.7 |
101.6 |
101.5 |
101.6 |
62 |
Louisiana |
101.3 |
101.6 |
101.4 |
101.4 |
63 |
Tulane |
99.7 |
100.5 |
100.2 |
100.1 |
64 |
Oregon St. |
99.8 |
100.8 |
99.5 |
100.0 |
65 |
Wyoming |
99.0 |
101.2 |
99.6 |
99.9 |
66 |
Louisville |
99.6 |
99.4 |
99.5 |
99.5 |
67 |
Navy |
97.9 |
100.5 |
98.9 |
99.1 |
68 |
Utah St. |
99.2 |
98.4 |
99.8 |
99.1 |
69 |
Maryland |
99.6 |
98.5 |
98.2 |
98.8 |
70 |
Western Michigan |
98.8 |
97.9 |
98.7 |
98.5 |
71 |
San Diego St. |
97.9 |
99.6 |
97.7 |
98.4 |
72 |
Temple |
98.3 |
97.5 |
99.1 |
98.3 |
73 |
Syracuse |
98.5 |
97.7 |
97.8 |
98.0 |
74 |
Houston |
97.0 |
97.9 |
99.1 |
98.0 |
75 |
Georgia Southern |
96.9 |
96.7 |
96.4 |
96.7 |
76 |
Arizona |
96.7 |
96.5 |
96.2 |
96.5 |
77 |
North Carolina St. |
96.6 |
96.2 |
96.5 |
96.4 |
78 |
Vanderbilt |
97.3 |
96.0 |
96.0 |
96.4 |
79 |
Florida Atlantic |
95.6 |
95.5 |
96.9 |
96.0 |
80 |
Kansas |
95.5 |
96.5 |
95.4 |
95.8 |
81 |
Fresno St. |
95.2 |
96.2 |
95.6 |
95.7 |
82 |
Hawaii |
95.2 |
96.6 |
94.3 |
95.4 |
83 |
Colorado |
95.5 |
95.2 |
95.1 |
95.2 |
84 |
Georgia Tech |
94.8 |
93.2 |
95.0 |
94.3 |
85 |
Ohio |
94.4 |
93.5 |
94.9 |
94.3 |
86 |
Southern Miss. |
94.6 |
93.3 |
94.8 |
94.2 |
87 |
Louisiana Tech |
94.0 |
94.4 |
94.3 |
94.2 |
88 |
Army |
94.1 |
94.2 |
93.4 |
93.9 |
89 |
Buffalo |
92.9 |
93.6 |
94.4 |
93.6 |
90 |
Georgia St. |
92.5 |
93.8 |
92.2 |
92.8 |
91 |
Tulsa |
91.8 |
92.7 |
92.9 |
92.5 |
92 |
Arkansas |
92.2 |
92.2 |
91.6 |
92.0 |
93 |
South Florida |
91.4 |
92.6 |
91.8 |
91.9 |
94 |
Troy |
91.6 |
92.1 |
90.5 |
91.4 |
95 |
Arkansas St. |
91.3 |
91.6 |
91.2 |
91.4 |
96 |
Marshall |
90.8 |
90.4 |
91.6 |
90.9 |
97 |
U A B |
90.1 |
91.8 |
90.7 |
90.9 |
98 |
North Texas |
90.6 |
90.2 |
91.1 |
90.6 |
99 |
Ball St. |
90.4 |
89.9 |
90.4 |
90.2 |
100 |
Western Kentucky |
89.4 |
90.2 |
90.8 |
90.1 |
101 |
Liberty |
89.5 |
90.8 |
89.6 |
89.9 |
102 |
Middle Tennessee |
89.8 |
89.0 |
89.9 |
89.6 |
103 |
Northern Illinois |
89.5 |
88.7 |
89.6 |
89.3 |
104 |
Miami (Ohio) |
89.5 |
88.2 |
89.9 |
89.2 |
105 |
Toledo |
88.4 |
88.7 |
89.1 |
88.7 |
106 |
Central Michigan |
88.2 |
88.8 |
89.1 |
88.7 |
107 |
Colorado St. |
87.1 |
90.7 |
87.7 |
88.5 |
108 |
San Jose St. |
87.7 |
89.5 |
87.7 |
88.3 |
109 |
Kent St. |
87.6 |
87.4 |
87.9 |
87.6 |
110 |
Florida Int’l. |
87.7 |
87.5 |
87.5 |
87.6 |
111 |
Coastal Carolina |
87.2 |
88.4 |
86.8 |
87.5 |
112 |
Nevada |
86.2 |
87.7 |
85.5 |
86.5 |
113 |
Charlotte |
86.1 |
86.4 |
86.5 |
86.3 |
114 |
Louisiana-Monroe |
85.8 |
86.4 |
85.4 |
85.9 |
115 |
Eastern Michigan |
84.2 |
84.3 |
84.5 |
84.4 |
116 |
Rutgers |
84.1 |
83.8 |
82.9 |
83.6 |
117 |
U N L V |
83.1 |
84.7 |
82.7 |
83.5 |
118 |
East Carolina |
82.9 |
84.3 |
83.1 |
83.4 |
119 |
Texas St. |
81.8 |
82.3 |
81.0 |
81.7 |
120 |
New Mexico |
79.8 |
82.2 |
78.5 |
80.2 |
121 |
Rice |
79.5 |
80.4 |
78.7 |
79.6 |
122 |
New Mexico St. |
76.4 |
78.5 |
76.4 |
77.1 |
123 |
Texas-San Antonio |
75.6 |
77.7 |
75.5 |
76.2 |
124 |
South Alabama |
74.5 |
77.0 |
73.7 |
75.1 |
125 |
Bowling Green |
74.1 |
73.9 |
74.1 |
74.1 |
126 |
Old Dominion |
73.8 |
74.0 |
73.9 |
73.9 |
127 |
Connecticut |
71.2 |
74.5 |
70.2 |
72.0 |
128 |
U T E P |
68.5 |
72.5 |
69.1 |
70.0 |
129 |
Akron |
66.9 |
66.7 |
65.6 |
66.4 |
130 |
Massachusetts |
58.6 |
60.3 |
57.3 |
58.7 |
PiRate Ratings For Conference
American Athletic Conference |
||||||
East Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
AAC |
Overall |
Central Florida |
113.5 |
112.8 |
114.2 |
113.5 |
4-1 |
7-2 |
Cincinnati |
107.0 |
106.0 |
107.4 |
106.8 |
4-0 |
7-1 |
Temple |
98.3 |
97.5 |
99.1 |
98.3 |
2-2 |
5-3 |
South Florida |
91.4 |
92.6 |
91.8 |
91.9 |
2-2 |
4-4 |
East Carolina |
82.9 |
84.3 |
83.1 |
83.4 |
0-5 |
3-6 |
Connecticut |
71.2 |
74.5 |
70.2 |
72.0 |
0-5 |
2-7 |
|
||||||
West Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
AAC |
Overall |
SMU |
106.2 |
105.9 |
107.1 |
106.4 |
4-1 |
8-1 |
Memphis |
105.9 |
105.9 |
106.7 |
106.2 |
4-1 |
8-1 |
Tulane |
99.7 |
100.5 |
100.2 |
100.1 |
3-2 |
6-3 |
Navy |
97.9 |
100.5 |
98.9 |
99.1 |
5-1 |
7-1 |
Houston |
97.0 |
97.9 |
99.1 |
98.0 |
1-4 |
3-6 |
Tulsa |
91.8 |
92.7 |
92.9 |
92.5 |
0-5 |
2-7 |
AAC Averages |
96.9 |
97.6 |
97.6 |
97.3 |
||
|
||||||
Atlantic Coast Conference |
||||||
Atlantic Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
ACC |
Overall |
Clemson |
135.3 |
133.0 |
136.3 |
134.9 |
6-0 |
9-0 |
Wake Forest |
106.5 |
106.0 |
107.0 |
106.5 |
3-1 |
7-1 |
Florida St. |
103.6 |
103.5 |
103.6 |
103.6 |
3-4 |
4-5 |
Boston College |
103.2 |
102.9 |
103.6 |
103.2 |
3-3 |
5-4 |
Louisville |
99.6 |
99.4 |
99.5 |
99.5 |
3-2 |
5-3 |
Syracuse |
98.5 |
97.7 |
97.8 |
98.0 |
0-5 |
3-6 |
North Carolina St. |
96.6 |
96.2 |
96.5 |
96.4 |
1-3 |
4-4 |
|
||||||
Coastal Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
ACC |
Overall |
Virginia |
107.7 |
107.8 |
107.9 |
107.8 |
4-2 |
6-3 |
Miami (Fla.) |
107.2 |
106.8 |
108.3 |
107.4 |
3-3 |
5-4 |
Pittsburgh |
105.7 |
105.3 |
106.0 |
105.7 |
3-2 |
6-3 |
North Carolina |
105.4 |
105.2 |
106.1 |
105.6 |
3-3 |
4-5 |
Duke |
105.7 |
105.1 |
105.6 |
105.5 |
2-3 |
4-4 |
Virginia Tech |
102.0 |
102.0 |
102.5 |
102.2 |
3-2 |
5-3 |
Georgia Tech |
94.8 |
93.2 |
95.0 |
94.3 |
1-4 |
2-6 |
ACC Averages |
105.1 |
104.6 |
105.4 |
105.0 |
||
|
||||||
Big 12 Conference |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
B12 |
Overall |
Oklahoma |
123.5 |
122.7 |
123.2 |
123.1 |
4-1 |
7-1 |
Iowa St. |
114.8 |
115.4 |
115.0 |
115.1 |
3-2 |
5-3 |
Baylor |
113.5 |
113.5 |
112.8 |
113.3 |
5-0 |
8-0 |
Kansas St. |
112.3 |
112.2 |
112.3 |
112.3 |
3-2 |
6-2 |
Oklahoma St. |
110.0 |
110.7 |
109.7 |
110.1 |
3-3 |
6-3 |
Texas |
109.9 |
110.2 |
109.9 |
110.0 |
3-2 |
5-3 |
T C U |
107.3 |
109.8 |
107.6 |
108.2 |
2-3 |
4-4 |
Texas Tech |
104.4 |
104.6 |
103.5 |
104.2 |
1-4 |
3-5 |
West Virginia |
102.7 |
102.3 |
102.1 |
102.3 |
1-4 |
3-5 |
Kansas |
95.5 |
96.5 |
95.4 |
95.8 |
1-5 |
3-6 |
Big 12 Averages |
109.4 |
109.8 |
109.1 |
109.4 |
||
|
||||||
Big Ten Conference |
||||||
East Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
BTen |
Overall |
Ohio St. |
139.0 |
138.1 |
140.1 |
139.1 |
5-0 |
8-0 |
Penn St. |
124.9 |
124.1 |
125.2 |
124.8 |
5-0 |
8-0 |
Michigan |
123.0 |
121.6 |
123.3 |
122.6 |
4-2 |
7-2 |
Michigan St. |
112.7 |
111.8 |
112.2 |
112.2 |
2-3 |
4-4 |
Indiana |
110.6 |
109.6 |
110.3 |
110.2 |
4-2 |
7-2 |
Maryland |
99.6 |
98.5 |
98.2 |
98.8 |
1-5 |
3-6 |
Rutgers |
84.1 |
83.8 |
82.9 |
83.6 |
0-6 |
2-7 |
|
||||||
West Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
BTen |
Overall |
Wisconsin |
120.4 |
120.0 |
120.3 |
120.2 |
3-2 |
6-2 |
Iowa |
119.1 |
117.3 |
119.0 |
118.4 |
3-2 |
6-2 |
Minnesota |
118.1 |
117.9 |
117.8 |
117.9 |
5-0 |
8-0 |
Purdue |
103.6 |
103.4 |
102.9 |
103.3 |
2-4 |
3-6 |
Nebraska |
103.1 |
103.6 |
102.3 |
103.0 |
2-4 |
4-5 |
Illinois |
101.7 |
102.6 |
101.3 |
101.9 |
3-3 |
5-4 |
Northwestern |
102.5 |
101.4 |
101.2 |
101.7 |
0-6 |
1-7 |
Big Ten Averages |
111.6 |
111.0 |
111.2 |
111.3 |
||
|
||||||
Conference USA |
||||||
East Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
CUSA |
Overall |
Florida Atlantic |
95.6 |
95.5 |
96.9 |
96.0 |
4-1 |
6-3 |
Marshall |
90.8 |
90.4 |
91.6 |
90.9 |
4-1 |
6-3 |
Western Kentucky |
89.4 |
90.2 |
90.8 |
90.1 |
4-2 |
5-4 |
Middle Tennessee |
89.8 |
89.0 |
89.9 |
89.6 |
2-3 |
3-6 |
Florida Int’l. |
87.7 |
87.5 |
87.5 |
87.6 |
3-3 |
5-4 |
Charlotte |
86.1 |
86.4 |
86.5 |
86.3 |
2-3 |
4-5 |
Old Dominion |
73.8 |
74.0 |
73.9 |
73.9 |
0-5 |
1-8 |
|
||||||
West Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
CUSA |
Overall |
Southern Miss. |
94.6 |
93.3 |
94.8 |
94.2 |
3-1 |
5-3 |
Louisiana Tech |
94.0 |
94.4 |
94.3 |
94.2 |
4-0 |
7-1 |
U A B |
90.1 |
91.8 |
90.7 |
90.9 |
3-1 |
6-2 |
North Texas |
90.6 |
90.2 |
91.1 |
90.6 |
3-2 |
4-5 |
Rice |
79.5 |
80.4 |
78.7 |
79.6 |
0-5 |
0-9 |
Texas-San Antonio |
75.6 |
77.7 |
75.5 |
76.2 |
2-2 |
3-5 |
U T E P |
68.5 |
72.5 |
69.1 |
70.0 |
0-5 |
1-7 |
CUSA Averages |
86.1 |
86.7 |
86.5 |
86.4 |
||
|
||||||
FBS Independents |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
Conf. |
Overall |
Notre Dame |
116.4 |
114.7 |
116.0 |
115.7 |
x |
6-2 |
BYU |
103.2 |
103.2 |
103.4 |
103.3 |
x |
4-4 |
Army |
94.1 |
94.2 |
93.4 |
93.9 |
x |
3-6 |
Liberty |
89.5 |
90.8 |
89.6 |
89.9 |
x |
6-3 |
New Mexico St. |
76.4 |
78.5 |
76.4 |
77.1 |
x |
0-8 |
Massachusetts |
58.6 |
60.3 |
57.3 |
58.7 |
x |
1-8 |
Indep. Averages |
89.7 |
90.3 |
89.3 |
89.8 |
||
|
||||||
Mid-American Conference |
||||||
East Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
MAC |
Overall |
Ohio |
94.4 |
93.5 |
94.9 |
94.3 |
3-1 |
4-4 |
Buffalo |
92.9 |
93.6 |
94.4 |
93.6 |
3-2 |
5-4 |
Miami (Ohio) |
89.5 |
88.2 |
89.9 |
89.2 |
3-1 |
4-4 |
Kent St. |
87.6 |
87.4 |
87.9 |
87.6 |
2-2 |
3-5 |
Bowling Green |
74.1 |
73.9 |
74.1 |
74.1 |
2-3 |
3-6 |
Akron |
66.9 |
66.7 |
65.6 |
66.4 |
0-5 |
0-9 |
|
||||||
West Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
MAC |
Overall |
Western Michigan |
98.8 |
97.9 |
98.7 |
98.5 |
3-2 |
5-4 |
Ball St. |
90.4 |
89.9 |
90.4 |
90.2 |
3-1 |
4-4 |
Northern Illinois |
89.5 |
88.7 |
89.6 |
89.3 |
2-3 |
3-6 |
Toledo |
88.4 |
88.7 |
89.1 |
88.7 |
2-2 |
5-3 |
Central Michigan |
88.2 |
88.8 |
89.1 |
88.7 |
4-2 |
6-4 |
Eastern Michigan |
84.2 |
84.3 |
84.5 |
84.4 |
1-4 |
4-5 |
MAC Averages |
87.1 |
86.8 |
87.4 |
87.1 |
||
|
||||||
Mountain West Conference |
||||||
Mountain Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
MWC |
Overall |
Boise St. |
106.0 |
105.9 |
106.1 |
106.0 |
4-0 |
7-1 |
Air Force |
103.7 |
105.0 |
104.5 |
104.4 |
4-1 |
7-2 |
Wyoming |
99.0 |
101.2 |
99.6 |
99.9 |
3-1 |
6-2 |
Utah St. |
99.2 |
98.4 |
99.8 |
99.1 |
3-1 |
4-4 |
Colorado St. |
87.1 |
90.7 |
87.7 |
88.5 |
3-2 |
4-5 |
New Mexico |
79.8 |
82.2 |
78.5 |
80.2 |
0-5 |
2-7 |
|
||||||
West Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
MWC |
Overall |
San Diego St. |
97.9 |
99.6 |
97.7 |
98.4 |
4-1 |
7-1 |
Fresno St. |
95.2 |
96.2 |
95.6 |
95.7 |
2-2 |
4-4 |
Hawaii |
95.2 |
96.6 |
94.3 |
95.4 |
2-3 |
5-4 |
San Jose St. |
87.7 |
89.5 |
87.7 |
88.3 |
1-4 |
4-5 |
Nevada |
86.2 |
87.7 |
85.5 |
86.5 |
2-3 |
5-4 |
U N L V |
83.1 |
84.7 |
82.7 |
83.5 |
1-5 |
2-7 |
MWC Averages |
93.3 |
94.8 |
93.3 |
93.8 |
||
|
||||||
Pac-12 Conference |
||||||
North Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
P12 |
Overall |
Oregon |
121.2 |
121.3 |
122.5 |
121.7 |
6-0 |
8-1 |
Washington |
114.3 |
114.0 |
115.3 |
114.5 |
2-4 |
5-4 |
Washington St. |
113.0 |
112.2 |
113.5 |
112.9 |
1-4 |
4-4 |
Stanford |
104.0 |
103.3 |
103.7 |
103.7 |
3-3 |
4-4 |
California |
102.8 |
102.4 |
103.3 |
102.8 |
1-4 |
4-4 |
Oregon St. |
99.8 |
100.8 |
99.5 |
100.0 |
3-2 |
4-4 |
|
||||||
South Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
P12 |
Overall |
Utah |
123.7 |
122.6 |
124.5 |
123.6 |
5-1 |
8-1 |
U S C |
107.3 |
107.8 |
107.6 |
107.6 |
4-2 |
5-4 |
Arizona St. |
107.2 |
106.5 |
107.7 |
107.2 |
2-3 |
5-3 |
U C L A |
101.7 |
101.6 |
101.5 |
101.6 |
4-2 |
4-5 |
Arizona |
96.7 |
96.5 |
96.2 |
96.5 |
2-4 |
4-5 |
Colorado |
95.5 |
95.2 |
95.1 |
95.2 |
1-5 |
3-6 |
Pac-12 Averages |
107.3 |
107.0 |
107.5 |
107.3 |
||
|
||||||
Southeastern Conference |
||||||
East Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
SEC |
Overall |
Georgia |
126.7 |
124.8 |
126.7 |
126.1 |
4-1 |
7-1 |
Florida |
122.8 |
119.9 |
122.3 |
121.6 |
5-2 |
7-2 |
South Carolina |
111.7 |
110.0 |
111.1 |
110.9 |
3-4 |
4-5 |
Missouri |
111.6 |
109.2 |
111.1 |
110.6 |
2-2 |
5-3 |
Tennessee |
109.5 |
109.3 |
108.6 |
109.1 |
2-3 |
4-5 |
Kentucky |
108.7 |
107.3 |
107.6 |
107.9 |
2-4 |
4-4 |
Vanderbilt |
97.3 |
96.0 |
96.0 |
96.4 |
1-4 |
2-6 |
|
||||||
West Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
SEC |
Overall |
Alabama |
135.6 |
132.5 |
136.3 |
134.8 |
5-0 |
8-0 |
L S U |
129.4 |
127.1 |
129.3 |
128.6 |
4-0 |
8-0 |
Auburn |
122.5 |
120.8 |
122.3 |
121.9 |
4-2 |
7-2 |
Texas A&M |
116.2 |
114.6 |
115.1 |
115.3 |
3-2 |
6-3 |
Mississippi St. |
110.8 |
107.5 |
114.7 |
111.0 |
2-4 |
4-5 |
Ole Miss |
106.4 |
105.4 |
106.3 |
106.0 |
2-4 |
3-6 |
Arkansas |
92.2 |
92.2 |
91.6 |
92.0 |
0-6 |
2-7 |
SEC Averages |
114.4 |
112.6 |
114.2 |
113.7 |
||
|
||||||
Sunbelt Conference |
||||||
East Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
SBC |
Overall |
Appalachian St. |
106.6 |
105.6 |
106.0 |
106.1 |
4-1 |
7-1 |
Georgia Southern |
96.9 |
96.7 |
96.4 |
96.7 |
3-1 |
5-3 |
Georgia St. |
92.5 |
93.8 |
92.2 |
92.8 |
3-1 |
6-2 |
Troy |
91.6 |
92.1 |
90.5 |
91.4 |
1-3 |
3-5 |
Coastal Carolina |
87.2 |
88.4 |
86.8 |
87.5 |
1-3 |
4-4 |
|
||||||
West Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
SBC |
Overall |
Louisiana |
101.3 |
101.6 |
101.4 |
101.4 |
3-1 |
6-2 |
Arkansas St. |
91.3 |
91.6 |
91.2 |
91.4 |
3-2 |
5-4 |
Louisiana-Monroe |
85.8 |
86.4 |
85.4 |
85.9 |
2-2 |
3-5 |
Texas St. |
81.8 |
82.3 |
81.0 |
81.7 |
1-3 |
2-6 |
South Alabama |
74.5 |
77.0 |
73.7 |
75.1 |
0-4 |
1-7 |
SBC Averages |
91.0 |
91.6 |
90.5 |
91.0 |
Rating The Conferences
# |
League |
Average |
1 |
Southeastern |
113.7 |
2 |
Big Ten |
111.3 |
3 |
Big 12 |
109.4 |
4 |
Pac-12 |
107.3 |
5 |
Atlantic Coast |
105.0 |
6 |
American |
97.3 |
7 |
Mountain West |
93.8 |
8 |
Sun Belt |
91.0 |
9 |
Independents |
89.8 |
10 |
Mid-American |
87.1 |
11 |
Conference USA |
86.4 |
PiRate Rating Guess On Initial Top 4
Prediction on Selection Committee Choices on Tuesday |
|
1 |
LSU |
2 |
Ohio St. |
3 |
Alabama |
4 |
Penn St. |
Top 5 Group of 5 |
|
1 |
Memphis |
2 |
Cincinnati |
3 |
Boise St. |
4 |
Navy |
5 |
SMU |
Playoffs and Bowl Projections
Bowl |
Conf |
Conf |
Team |
Team |
Bahamas |
MAC |
CUSA |
Buffalo |
Marshall |
Frisco |
AAC |
At-large |
SMU |
[Boise St.] |
Cure |
AAC |
SBC |
[Liberty] |
Arkansas St. |
New Mexico |
CUSA |
MWC |
UAB |
Hawaii |
Boca Raton |
AAC |
MAC |
Tulane |
Ohio |
Camellia |
MAC |
SBC |
Central Michigan |
Georgia St. |
Las Vegas |
MWC #1 |
Pac-12 |
San Diego St. |
Oregon St. |
New Orleans |
CUSA |
SBC #1 |
Louisiana Tech |
Louisiana |
Gasparilla |
AAC |
CUSA |
Cincinnati |
Florida Atlantic |
Hawaii |
BYU/MWC |
AAC |
BYU |
Navy |
Independence |
ACC |
SEC |
Miami (Fla.) |
[Southern Miss.] |
Quick Lane |
ACC |
Big Ten |
North Carolina |
Michigan St. |
Military |
ACC |
AAC |
Boston College |
Temple |
Pinstripe |
ACC |
Big Ten |
Virginia |
Michigan |
Texas |
Big 12 |
SEC |
Texas |
Texas A&M |
Holiday |
Pac-12 |
Big Ten |
USC |
Iowa |
Cheez-It |
Big 12 |
Pac-12 |
Iowa St. |
Arizona St. |
Camping World |
ACC |
Big 12 |
Notre Dame |
Oklahoma St. |
Cotton |
At-large |
At-large |
Memphis |
Baylor |
First Responder |
CUSA |
Big 12 |
Western Kentucky |
[Fresno St.] |
Redbox |
Pac-12 |
Big Ten |
Washington |
Illinois |
Music City |
SEC |
ACC |
[Ball St.] |
Pittsburgh |
Orange |
ACC |
BTen/SEC |
Wake Forest |
Florida |
Belk |
ACC |
SEC |
Virginia Tech |
Mississippi St. |
Sun |
ACC |
Pac-12 |
Louisville |
Washington St. |
Liberty |
Big 12 |
SEC |
TCU |
[Stanford] |
Arizona |
SBC |
MWC |
Appalachian St. |
Air Force |
Alamo |
Big 12 |
Pac-12 |
Kansas St. |
Utah |
Citrus |
SEC |
BTen/ACC |
Auburn |
Wisconsin |
Outback |
Big Ten |
SEC |
Penn St. |
Tennessee |
Rose |
Big Ten |
Pac-12 |
Minnesota |
Oregon |
Sugar |
Big 12 |
SEC |
Oklahoma |
Georgia |
Birmingham |
AAC |
SEC |
Central Florida |
[Duke] |
Taxslayer/Gator |
SEC |
Big Ten |
Kentucky |
Indiana |
Idaho Potato |
MAC |
MWC |
Toledo |
Utah St. |
Armed Forces |
Big Ten |
MWC |
Nebraska |
Wyoming |
Dollar General |
MAC |
SBC |
Western Michigan |
Georgia Southern |
|
||||
FBS PLAYOFFS |
||||
Fiesta |
Top 4 |
Top 4 |
Ohio St. |
Clemson |
Peach |
Top 4 |
Top 4 |
Alabama |
LSU |
|
||||
Championship |
Fiesta |
Peach |
Ohio St. |
Alabama |
|
||||
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections |
This Is The Weekend
We don’t really need to say anything. If you are reading this publication, you already know how incredible this weekend will be in college football. On a typical November 9 in prior years, the incredible Princeton-Dartmouth game at Yankee Stadium might be the marquee game of the weekend. Unfortunately, it starts at the same time as the biggie at Bryant-Denny. Let’s take a brief look at the games that may make you want to stay home on Saturday, throw some logs on the fireplace, enjoy your favorite snacks and beverages, and watch two to three games at the same time.
12 Noon EST
Penn St. (8-0) at Minnesota (8-0)–ABC
The winner stays in the hunt for a Playoff spot, while the loser probably falls out of the Rose Bowl race. Minnesota hasn’t played in a November game that had this type of importance since they played at Purdue in November of 1967 with a Rose Bowl bid on the line. Purdue clobbered the Gophers that day, and even though Minnesota beat undefeated Indiana the following week, when the season ended in a three-way tie for first, Indiana received the Rose Bowl bid because Minnesota and Purdue had been in the Rose Bowl more recently (It was the Hoosiers’ only Rose Bowl invitation).
Penn State has been in the Rose Bowl more recently, but the Nittany Lions would consider a trip to Pasadena this year to be a failure. James Franklin has his team in line for the Playoffs if they could upset Ohio State on the November 23 and then win the Big Ten Championship. Of course, the same holds true for the Gophers. Wins over Penn State, Iowa, Wisconsin, and then Ohio State would definitely put Minnesota in the Playoffs. Consider this game the equivalent of a Sweet 16 game in the NCAA Basketball Tournament.
Baylor (8-0) at TCU (4-4)–FS1
This is a 100% definite trap game for the undefeated Bears. Baylor hosts Oklahoma on November 16, and no matter how hard Coach Matt Rhule tries to convince his squad that TCU is good enough to beat them, the players are already counting down the days until the Sooners come to Waco.
TCU is on the verge of having to worry about where two more victories will come, so bowl eligibility is not yet a given in Forth Worth. The Horned Frogs have to win two of their final four and have games at Texas Tech and Oklahoma, as well as a home finale with West Virginia. They will be underdogs in three of their final four and must upset somebody to get to a bowl.
3:30 PM EST
LSU (8-0) at Alabama (8-0)–CBS
The knock against LSU in recent years was that the Tigers were too conservative on the offensive attack, and defense and running couldn’t beat Alabama and other behemoths. This year, LSU’s offense can light it up against anybody, including Alabama’s defense.
The rub is that with the increased offensive efficiency and quick scoring passing attack, the Tigers’ defense has been forced to play up to 20 additional snaps per game, and opponents are finding ways to move the ball on the former tough defense.
All that’s changed is that LSU wins games 42-27 instead of 27-12. A 15-point victory is a 15-point victory. In the SEC, talent at each of the two-deep offenses and defenses just mean more than whether a team can pass the ball for 300 yards and score 30 points or hold the opponents to 250 total yards and 14 points.
Alabama still has the superior overall talent in the two-deeps on both sides of the ball. In the past, Alabama might have won this game 24-14. We believe they will continue to dominate this series and win it 45-35. A 10-point superior team is still 10 points better than the other team.
Dartmouth (7-0) vs. Princeton (7-0) @ Yankee Stadium in the Bronx–ESPNU
This is the 150th Anniversary of College Football, so it is worth tuning in to watch when and if the big game is not as exciting. It isn’t the original Yankee Stadium, but Yankee Stadium has been the site of many great college football games including the incredible Army-Notre Dame game of 1946, which ended 0-0.
Kansas St. (6-2) at Texas (5-3)–ESPN
Both teams are 3-2 in the Big 12, and they are still mathematically in the race for the number two spot in the Conference Championship Game. Kansas State holds the tiebreaker over Oklahoma, so if the Wildcats can win out, and Oklahoma loses to Baylor or Oklahoma State, the Wildcats will play for a chance to go to the Sugar Bowl.
This has been a down year for Texas, and the Longhorns could be falling far enough to be placed in a bowl game in Houston against those Aggies. The Texas Bowl would love that, but the Longhorns wouldn’t.
Illinois (5-4) at Michigan St. (4-4)–FS1
Why do we consider this game so important? Illinois was given up for dead in early October, as the Illini appeared to be headed to a 6th or 7th place finish in the Big Ten West, and Coach Lovie Smith was probably on the way out. Illinois had defeated Akron and Connecticut, two of the bottom 10 teams in the nation, and they had lost to Eastern Michigan. At 2-4, Illinois then upset Wisconsin and followed that up with an impressive win at Purdue and a four-touchdown trouncing of Rutgers. The Illini need one more victory to go bowling. They are likely to get it against Northwestern to close out the season, but if Illinois can win at Michigan State, they will move up a couple of places in the bowl pecking order.
Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio is going to have to learn how to change or else he could be on his way toward retirement. Dantonio is one of the lone holdovers to horse and buggy football. Michigan State plays like it is still 1975, and the team that rushes for 200 yards and holds the other to less than 100 yards is going to win with relative ease. That’s not how teams win these days. If Sparty loses this game, there is a better than 50-50 chance that they will not get six wins or go to a bowl. Even if they win this game, they may only be able to garner the lowly Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit.
Louisville (5-3) at Miami (Fla.) (5-4)–FS1
Louisville coach Scott Satterfield should receive some votes for ACC Coach of the Year, as the Cardinals were picked to finish last in the Atlantic Division, and they are most likely going to be bowl eligible.
Miami still has a small chance to win the Coastal Division, but a lot of things have to happen to make that a reality. First and foremost is that the Hurricanes win their last three games.
The winner of this game becomes bowl eligible, and you should get the best from both teams, which will make this exciting enough to put an auxiliary monitor on this game.
4:00 PM EST
Iowa (6-2) at Wisconsin (6-2)–Fox
Minnesota has not clinched the West Division in the Big Ten, so the winner of this game remains in contention for the flag, since both must still play the Gophers. If Penn State wins the 12:00 game, then whoever wins this one will get a chance to play Minnesota for first place later in November.
Expect a hard-fought, defensive struggle in this one, and the weather is expected to be cold and windy. If you like the old blood and guts games of the 1950’s (yes, we know we have some gray-haired readers), then this is the game for you. It could be one of those 12-10 games.
7:30 PM EST
Tennessee (4-5) at Kentucky (4-4)–SEC Network
How about a career saving resurrection? Tennessee head coach Jeremy Pruitt was one step out the door in Knoxville a month ago. At 1-4 with losses at home to Georgia State and BYU, the Vols looked like a potentially 2-10 or possible 1-11 team.
Tennessee was reborn after a blowout loss to Georgia. Wins over Mississippi State, South Carolina, and UAB, and a loss to Alabama that was still in doubt into the fourth quarter has the Vols on the verge of becoming bowl eligible.
Kentucky began the season strong enough to contend for a New Year’s 6 Bowl. Losing quarterback Terry Wilson probably cost the Wildcats two, possibly three wins to date, and Kentucky’s defense is not strong enough to hold Tennessee below 20 points in Lexington. Can the Wildcats find some offense that they have not been able to find without Wilson under center? A loss here will put the K-Cats under .500, but with Vanderbilt and UT-Martin following this game, the blue and white can still get to 6-6.
8:00 PM EST
Iowa State (5-3) at Oklahoma (7-1)–Fox
The last time Iowa State came to Norman, the Cyclones pulled off a major upset. If they want to make the Big 12 Championship Game, they will have to do it again. Of course, Oklahoma is coming off a bye week following their upset loss to Kansas State, so the Sooners are likely to play their best game of the season.
The question is, can Oklahoma’s defense stop Iowa State’s offense, and can the Sooners score at least 38 points in this game?
There’s another little issue in this game. Oklahoma has a date at Baylor next week. Even coming off a loss and a bye week, some of the Sooners may have a hard time thinking about Iowa State with the undefeated Bears coming up next week. This should be an exciting game, especially under the lights at Owen Field.
10:15 PM EST
Wyoming (6-2) at Boise St. (7-1)–ESPN
Boise State has been a bit off in October and November. The Broncos are not likely to earn the Group of 5 bid to a NY6 bowl, and they are now playing for their lives in the Mountain Division of the Mountain West.
Wyoming is a no-nonsense hard-hitting team that can wear teams down in the second half. The Cowboys have enough talent to go to the Field of Blue and move into first place in the division. If you are a night owl and stay up late on Saturday night watching games from the Rockies and West Coast, this is definitely one you should plan to watch. Wyoming is coming into this game looking like they are sitting on their best production in the next few weeks. We have this sneaky suspicion that the Cowboys will be in the lead in the fourth quarter in this game.
10:30 PM EST
Nevada (5-4) at San Diego St. (7-1)–ESPN2
San Diego State is in first place in the West Division of the Mountain West, but the Aztecs must play Nevada, Fresno State, and Hawaii in successive weeks, so even though Nevada is just 2-3 in conference play, the Wolf Pack are still alive in the division race. This should be a relatively close game, and it could be decided on a late turnover or big play. If you can stay up until 1:45 on the East Coast, you may be rewarded with some excitement to end your college football fix.
October 27, 2019
PiRate College Football Ratings: October 28, 2019
This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads
Thursday |
October 31 |
|||
Home |
Visitors |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Appalachian St. |
Georgia Southern |
16.9 |
16.3 |
17.3 |
Baylor |
West Virginia |
14.9 |
15.7 |
15.4 |
|
||||
Friday |
November 1 |
|||
Home |
Visitors |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Connecticut |
Navy |
-20.7 |
-19.8 |
-22.6 |
|
||||
Saturday |
November 2 |
|||
Home |
Visitors |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Wake Forest |
North Carolina St. |
6.2 |
5.9 |
6.4 |
Massachusetts |
Liberty |
-24.7 |
-23.9 |
-26.1 |
Florida Int’l. |
Old Dominion |
17.4 |
16.9 |
17.3 |
Coastal Carolina |
Troy |
-2.6 |
-2.1 |
-2.3 |
Georgia Tech |
Pittsburgh |
-7.6 |
-9.1 |
-7.4 |
Purdue |
Nebraska |
3.5 |
2.6 |
3.7 |
Central Florida |
Houston |
19.9 |
18.3 |
18.7 |
Maryland |
Michigan |
-17.1 |
-16.4 |
-18.7 |
Indiana |
Northwestern |
7.1 |
7.1 |
8.0 |
Bowling Green |
Akron |
5.9 |
5.7 |
7.0 |
Illinois |
Rutgers |
19.3 |
20.6 |
19.8 |
East Carolina |
Cincinnati |
-24.6 |
-21.8 |
-25.2 |
Syracuse |
Boston College |
6.6 |
6.3 |
5.7 |
Eastern Michigan |
Buffalo |
-0.6 |
-1.1 |
-1.5 |
North Carolina |
Virginia |
1.8 |
1.6 |
2.8 |
Utah St. |
BYU |
4.4 |
3.6 |
5.2 |
Notre Dame |
Virginia Tech |
19.2 |
17.4 |
18.5 |
USC |
Oregon |
-5.7 |
-5.2 |
-6.6 |
UCLA |
Colorado |
7.9 |
7.8 |
7.6 |
Kansas |
Kansas St. |
-12.0 |
-10.9 |
-11.7 |
Louisiana |
Texas St. |
22.1 |
21.5 |
22.6 |
South Carolina |
Vanderbilt |
17.4 |
16.9 |
18.1 |
Central Michigan |
Northern Illinois |
-7.2 |
-5.5 |
-6.5 |
Rice |
Marshall |
-8.4 |
-6.7 |
-10.0 |
Colorado St. |
UNLV |
4.3 |
6.5 |
5.1 |
Memphis |
SMU |
2.0 |
2.1 |
1.3 |
Texas A&M |
UTSA |
44.8 |
40.6 |
43.9 |
Air Force |
Army |
13.5 |
14.9 |
15.5 |
Arizona |
Oregon St. |
4.3 |
3.1 |
4.6 |
Tennessee |
UAB |
22.4 |
20.0 |
20.2 |
Auburn |
Ole Miss |
21.3 |
20.4 |
21.5 |
Florida (n) |
Georgia |
-3.5 |
-4.5 |
-3.8 |
Oklahoma St. |
TCU |
5.7 |
3.5 |
4.7 |
North Texas |
UTEP |
24.4 |
19.5 |
23.9 |
Tulane |
Tulsa |
10.9 |
10.8 |
10.1 |
Arkansas |
Mississippi St. |
-11.2 |
-7.3 |
-15.8 |
Charlotte |
Middle Tennessee |
-5.2 |
-4.0 |
-5.2 |
Western Kentucky |
Florida Atlantic |
-1.5 |
-0.3 |
-0.8 |
UL-Monroe |
Arkansas St. |
-2.6 |
-2.1 |
-2.4 |
Florida St. |
Miami (Fla.) |
2.1 |
2.9 |
1.5 |
Nevada |
New Mexico |
8.7 |
7.4 |
8.8 |
Washington |
Utah |
-6.3 |
-5.7 |
-6.2 |
San Jose St. |
Boise St. |
-16.1 |
-13.8 |
-16.7 |
Hawaii |
Fresno St. |
5.4 |
6.0 |
4.3 |
|
||||
FBS vs. |
FCS |
|||
Clemson |
Wofford |
48 |
This Week’s PiRate Ratings
# |
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
1 |
Ohio St. |
138.7 |
137.8 |
139.8 |
138.8 |
2 |
Clemson |
135.0 |
132.7 |
136.0 |
134.6 |
3 |
Alabama |
135.3 |
132.2 |
136.0 |
134.5 |
4 |
L S U |
129.1 |
126.8 |
129.0 |
128.3 |
5 |
Georgia |
126.5 |
124.6 |
126.4 |
125.8 |
6 |
Penn St. |
124.6 |
123.8 |
124.9 |
124.5 |
7 |
Utah |
123.7 |
122.6 |
124.5 |
123.6 |
8 |
Auburn |
123.7 |
122.0 |
123.7 |
123.1 |
9 |
Oklahoma |
123.2 |
122.4 |
122.9 |
122.8 |
10 |
Florida |
123.0 |
120.1 |
122.6 |
121.9 |
11 |
Michigan |
121.5 |
119.9 |
121.8 |
121.1 |
12 |
Wisconsin |
120.1 |
119.7 |
120.0 |
119.9 |
13 |
Oregon |
118.4 |
118.4 |
119.6 |
118.8 |
14 |
Iowa |
118.8 |
117.0 |
118.7 |
118.1 |
15 |
Minnesota |
117.8 |
117.6 |
117.5 |
117.6 |
16 |
Notre Dame |
117.6 |
115.8 |
117.3 |
116.9 |
17 |
Texas A&M |
117.4 |
115.6 |
116.4 |
116.5 |
18 |
Iowa St. |
114.5 |
115.1 |
114.7 |
114.8 |
19 |
Washington |
114.3 |
114.0 |
115.3 |
114.5 |
20 |
Baylor |
114.3 |
114.5 |
113.9 |
114.2 |
21 |
Central Florida |
113.7 |
113.0 |
114.5 |
113.7 |
22 |
Washington St. |
112.7 |
111.9 |
113.2 |
112.6 |
23 |
Michigan St. |
112.4 |
111.5 |
111.9 |
111.9 |
24 |
South Carolina |
111.7 |
110.0 |
111.1 |
110.9 |
25 |
Missouri |
111.3 |
108.9 |
110.8 |
110.3 |
26 |
Kansas St. |
110.4 |
110.3 |
110.2 |
110.3 |
27 |
Oklahoma St. |
110.0 |
110.5 |
109.5 |
110.0 |
28 |
U S C |
109.6 |
110.2 |
110.0 |
110.0 |
29 |
Texas |
109.6 |
109.9 |
109.6 |
109.7 |
30 |
Mississippi St. |
109.1 |
105.5 |
113.1 |
109.2 |
31 |
Tennessee |
109.5 |
109.1 |
108.3 |
109.0 |
32 |
Cincinnati |
108.6 |
107.4 |
109.2 |
108.4 |
33 |
T C U |
107.3 |
110.0 |
107.8 |
108.4 |
34 |
Indiana |
108.8 |
107.7 |
108.4 |
108.3 |
35 |
Appalachian St. |
108.7 |
107.8 |
108.4 |
108.3 |
36 |
Kentucky |
108.4 |
107.0 |
107.3 |
107.6 |
37 |
Virginia |
107.2 |
107.2 |
107.1 |
107.2 |
38 |
SMU |
106.7 |
106.5 |
107.9 |
107.0 |
39 |
Arizona St. |
106.9 |
106.2 |
107.4 |
106.9 |
40 |
Boise St. |
106.4 |
106.1 |
106.7 |
106.4 |
41 |
North Carolina |
105.9 |
105.8 |
106.9 |
106.2 |
42 |
Memphis |
105.7 |
105.6 |
106.2 |
105.8 |
43 |
Florida St. |
105.6 |
105.7 |
105.8 |
105.7 |
44 |
Miami (Fla.) |
105.5 |
104.9 |
106.4 |
105.6 |
45 |
Pittsburgh |
105.6 |
105.3 |
105.7 |
105.5 |
46 |
Duke |
105.4 |
104.8 |
105.3 |
105.2 |
47 |
Air Force |
104.3 |
105.7 |
105.4 |
105.1 |
48 |
Ole Miss |
105.5 |
104.5 |
105.2 |
105.1 |
49 |
Northwestern |
104.6 |
103.6 |
103.4 |
103.9 |
50 |
Texas Tech |
104.1 |
104.3 |
103.2 |
103.9 |
51 |
Wake Forest |
103.8 |
103.2 |
104.1 |
103.7 |
52 |
Stanford |
103.7 |
103.0 |
103.4 |
103.4 |
53 |
Purdue |
103.6 |
103.3 |
102.9 |
103.3 |
54 |
Nebraska |
103.1 |
103.7 |
102.3 |
103.0 |
55 |
Syracuse |
103.4 |
102.7 |
102.8 |
103.0 |
56 |
California |
102.5 |
102.1 |
103.0 |
102.5 |
57 |
Utah St. |
102.5 |
101.7 |
103.3 |
102.5 |
58 |
West Virginia |
102.4 |
101.8 |
101.5 |
101.9 |
59 |
Virginia Tech |
101.3 |
101.4 |
101.7 |
101.5 |
60 |
Illinois |
101.2 |
102.1 |
100.6 |
101.3 |
61 |
Louisiana |
101.1 |
101.2 |
101.0 |
101.1 |
62 |
U C L A |
101.0 |
100.8 |
100.6 |
100.8 |
63 |
Maryland |
101.4 |
100.5 |
100.0 |
100.6 |
64 |
Tulane |
99.7 |
100.5 |
100.1 |
100.1 |
65 |
Boston College |
99.8 |
99.4 |
100.1 |
99.8 |
66 |
Wyoming |
98.7 |
100.9 |
99.3 |
99.6 |
67 |
BYU |
99.6 |
99.6 |
99.6 |
99.6 |
68 |
North Carolina St. |
99.6 |
99.3 |
99.7 |
99.5 |
69 |
Louisville |
99.3 |
99.1 |
99.2 |
99.2 |
70 |
Arizona |
98.9 |
98.7 |
98.6 |
98.7 |
71 |
Western Michigan |
98.6 |
97.7 |
98.5 |
98.3 |
72 |
San Diego St. |
97.6 |
99.3 |
97.4 |
98.1 |
73 |
Temple |
98.0 |
97.2 |
98.8 |
98.0 |
74 |
Oregon St. |
97.6 |
98.6 |
97.1 |
97.8 |
75 |
Houston |
96.8 |
97.7 |
98.8 |
97.7 |
76 |
Kansas |
96.9 |
97.9 |
97.0 |
97.3 |
77 |
Navy |
95.9 |
98.4 |
96.8 |
97.1 |
78 |
Vanderbilt |
97.3 |
96.0 |
96.0 |
96.4 |
79 |
Colorado |
96.2 |
96.0 |
96.0 |
96.0 |
80 |
Hawaii |
95.8 |
97.3 |
95.0 |
96.0 |
81 |
Fresno St. |
94.9 |
95.8 |
95.2 |
95.3 |
82 |
Arkansas |
94.9 |
95.2 |
94.2 |
94.8 |
83 |
Florida Atlantic |
94.5 |
94.2 |
95.5 |
94.7 |
84 |
Georgia Tech |
94.9 |
93.2 |
95.3 |
94.5 |
85 |
Georgia Southern |
94.8 |
94.5 |
94.0 |
94.5 |
86 |
Ohio |
94.2 |
93.3 |
94.7 |
94.1 |
87 |
Northern Illinois |
94.3 |
93.4 |
94.5 |
94.1 |
88 |
Southern Miss. |
94.4 |
93.1 |
94.6 |
94.0 |
89 |
Louisiana Tech |
93.8 |
94.2 |
94.1 |
94.0 |
90 |
Army |
93.8 |
93.8 |
92.8 |
93.5 |
91 |
Georgia St. |
92.3 |
93.6 |
92.0 |
92.6 |
92 |
Tulsa |
91.8 |
92.7 |
93.0 |
92.5 |
93 |
Troy |
92.1 |
92.7 |
91.2 |
92.0 |
94 |
Middle Tennessee |
91.9 |
91.1 |
92.2 |
91.7 |
95 |
South Florida |
91.1 |
92.3 |
91.5 |
91.6 |
96 |
Western Kentucky |
90.5 |
91.5 |
92.2 |
91.4 |
97 |
Buffalo |
90.5 |
91.1 |
91.8 |
91.1 |
98 |
U A B |
90.1 |
92.0 |
91.0 |
91.1 |
99 |
Arkansas St. |
91.1 |
91.3 |
90.8 |
91.1 |
100 |
Marshall |
90.6 |
90.0 |
91.4 |
90.7 |
101 |
North Texas |
90.5 |
89.8 |
90.8 |
90.4 |
102 |
Ball St. |
90.2 |
89.7 |
90.2 |
90.0 |
103 |
Miami (Ohio) |
89.3 |
88.0 |
89.7 |
89.0 |
104 |
Toledo |
88.2 |
88.5 |
88.9 |
88.5 |
105 |
Liberty |
87.9 |
89.0 |
88.0 |
88.3 |
106 |
Florida Int’l. |
88.3 |
88.1 |
88.3 |
88.2 |
107 |
San Jose St. |
87.3 |
89.3 |
87.1 |
87.9 |
108 |
Eastern Michigan |
87.3 |
87.5 |
87.8 |
87.6 |
109 |
Kent St. |
87.4 |
87.2 |
87.7 |
87.4 |
110 |
Colorado St. |
85.9 |
89.6 |
86.4 |
87.3 |
111 |
Coastal Carolina |
87.0 |
88.1 |
86.4 |
87.2 |
112 |
Nevada |
86.1 |
87.4 |
85.2 |
86.2 |
113 |
Louisiana-Monroe |
86.0 |
86.7 |
85.8 |
86.2 |
114 |
Central Michigan |
84.7 |
85.4 |
85.5 |
85.2 |
115 |
U N L V |
84.6 |
86.1 |
84.3 |
85.0 |
116 |
Charlotte |
84.3 |
84.6 |
84.5 |
84.5 |
117 |
Rutgers |
84.9 |
84.6 |
83.9 |
84.5 |
118 |
Texas St. |
82.0 |
82.7 |
81.4 |
82.0 |
119 |
East Carolina |
81.0 |
82.6 |
81.0 |
81.5 |
120 |
New Mexico |
79.9 |
82.5 |
78.8 |
80.4 |
121 |
Rice |
79.7 |
80.8 |
78.9 |
79.8 |
122 |
New Mexico St. |
76.2 |
78.3 |
76.2 |
76.9 |
123 |
Texas-San Antonio |
74.7 |
77.0 |
74.5 |
75.4 |
124 |
South Alabama |
74.3 |
76.8 |
73.5 |
74.9 |
125 |
Connecticut |
73.2 |
76.6 |
72.3 |
74.0 |
126 |
Old Dominion |
73.5 |
73.7 |
73.4 |
73.5 |
127 |
Bowling Green |
72.7 |
72.4 |
72.6 |
72.6 |
128 |
U T E P |
68.6 |
72.9 |
69.4 |
70.3 |
129 |
Akron |
69.4 |
69.3 |
68.2 |
68.9 |
130 |
Massachusetts |
60.7 |
62.6 |
59.4 |
60.9 |
PiRate Ratings By Conference
American Athletic Conference |
||||||
East Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
AAC |
Overall |
Central Florida |
113.7 |
113.0 |
114.5 |
113.7 |
3-1 |
6-2 |
Cincinnati |
108.6 |
107.4 |
109.2 |
108.4 |
3-0 |
6-1 |
Temple |
98.0 |
97.2 |
98.8 |
98.0 |
2-2 |
5-3 |
South Florida |
91.1 |
92.3 |
91.5 |
91.6 |
2-2 |
4-4 |
East Carolina |
81.0 |
82.6 |
81.0 |
81.5 |
0-4 |
3-5 |
Connecticut |
73.2 |
76.6 |
72.3 |
74.0 |
0-4 |
2-6 |
|
||||||
West Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
AAC |
Overall |
SMU |
106.7 |
106.5 |
107.9 |
107.0 |
4-0 |
8-0 |
Memphis |
105.7 |
105.6 |
106.2 |
105.8 |
3-1 |
7-1 |
Tulane |
99.7 |
100.5 |
100.1 |
100.1 |
2-2 |
5-3 |
Houston |
96.8 |
97.7 |
98.8 |
97.7 |
1-3 |
3-5 |
Navy |
95.9 |
98.4 |
96.8 |
97.1 |
4-1 |
6-1 |
Tulsa |
91.8 |
92.7 |
93.0 |
92.5 |
0-4 |
2-6 |
AAC Averages |
96.8 |
97.5 |
97.5 |
97.3 |
||
|
||||||
Atlantic Coast Conference |
||||||
Atlantic Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
ACC |
Overall |
Clemson |
135.0 |
132.7 |
136.0 |
134.6 |
6-0 |
8-0 |
Florida St. |
105.6 |
105.7 |
105.8 |
105.7 |
3-3 |
4-4 |
Wake Forest |
103.8 |
103.2 |
104.1 |
103.7 |
2-1 |
6-1 |
Syracuse |
103.4 |
102.7 |
102.8 |
103.0 |
0-4 |
3-5 |
Boston College |
99.8 |
99.4 |
100.1 |
99.8 |
2-3 |
4-4 |
North Carolina St. |
99.6 |
99.3 |
99.7 |
99.5 |
1-2 |
4-3 |
Louisville |
99.3 |
99.1 |
99.2 |
99.2 |
3-2 |
5-3 |
|
||||||
Coastal Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
ACC |
Overall |
Virginia |
107.2 |
107.2 |
107.1 |
107.2 |
3-2 |
5-3 |
North Carolina |
105.9 |
105.8 |
106.9 |
106.2 |
3-2 |
4-4 |
Miami (Fla.) |
105.5 |
104.9 |
106.4 |
105.6 |
2-3 |
4-4 |
Pittsburgh |
105.6 |
105.3 |
105.7 |
105.5 |
2-2 |
5-3 |
Duke |
105.4 |
104.8 |
105.3 |
105.2 |
2-3 |
4-4 |
Virginia Tech |
101.3 |
101.4 |
101.7 |
101.5 |
3-2 |
5-2 |
Georgia Tech |
94.9 |
93.2 |
95.3 |
94.5 |
1-3 |
2-5 |
ACC Averages |
105.2 |
104.6 |
105.4 |
105.1 |
||
|
||||||
Big 12 Conference |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
B12 |
Overall |
Oklahoma |
123.2 |
122.4 |
122.9 |
122.8 |
4-1 |
7-1 |
Iowa St. |
114.5 |
115.1 |
114.7 |
114.8 |
3-2 |
5-3 |
Baylor |
114.3 |
114.5 |
113.9 |
114.2 |
4-0 |
7-0 |
Kansas St. |
110.4 |
110.3 |
110.2 |
110.3 |
2-2 |
5-2 |
Oklahoma St. |
110.0 |
110.5 |
109.5 |
110.0 |
2-3 |
5-3 |
Texas |
109.6 |
109.9 |
109.6 |
109.7 |
3-2 |
5-3 |
T C U |
107.3 |
110.0 |
107.8 |
108.4 |
2-2 |
4-3 |
Texas Tech |
104.1 |
104.3 |
103.2 |
103.9 |
1-4 |
3-5 |
West Virginia |
102.4 |
101.8 |
101.5 |
101.9 |
1-3 |
3-4 |
Kansas |
96.9 |
97.9 |
97.0 |
97.3 |
1-4 |
3-5 |
Big 12 Averages |
109.3 |
109.7 |
109.0 |
109.3 |
||
|
||||||
Big Ten Conference |
||||||
East Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
BTen |
Overall |
Ohio St. |
138.7 |
137.8 |
139.8 |
138.8 |
5-0 |
8-0 |
Penn St. |
124.6 |
123.8 |
124.9 |
124.5 |
5-0 |
8-0 |
Michigan |
121.5 |
119.9 |
121.8 |
121.1 |
3-2 |
6-2 |
Michigan St. |
112.4 |
111.5 |
111.9 |
111.9 |
2-3 |
4-4 |
Indiana |
108.8 |
107.7 |
108.4 |
108.3 |
3-2 |
6-2 |
Maryland |
101.4 |
100.5 |
100.0 |
100.6 |
1-4 |
3-5 |
Rutgers |
84.9 |
84.6 |
83.9 |
84.5 |
0-5 |
2-6 |
|
||||||
West Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
BTen |
Overall |
Wisconsin |
120.1 |
119.7 |
120.0 |
119.9 |
3-2 |
6-2 |
Iowa |
118.8 |
117.0 |
118.7 |
118.1 |
3-2 |
6-2 |
Minnesota |
117.8 |
117.6 |
117.5 |
117.6 |
5-0 |
8-0 |
Northwestern |
104.6 |
103.6 |
103.4 |
103.9 |
0-5 |
1-6 |
Purdue |
103.6 |
103.3 |
102.9 |
103.3 |
1-4 |
2-6 |
Nebraska |
103.1 |
103.7 |
102.3 |
103.0 |
2-3 |
4-4 |
Illinois |
101.2 |
102.1 |
100.6 |
101.3 |
2-3 |
4-4 |
Big Ten Averages |
111.5 |
110.9 |
111.1 |
111.2 |
||
|
||||||
Conference USA |
||||||
East Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
CUSA |
Overall |
Florida Atlantic |
94.5 |
94.2 |
95.5 |
94.7 |
3-1 |
5-3 |
Middle Tennessee |
91.9 |
91.1 |
92.2 |
91.7 |
2-2 |
3-5 |
Western Kentucky |
90.5 |
91.5 |
92.2 |
91.4 |
4-1 |
5-3 |
Marshall |
90.6 |
90.0 |
91.4 |
90.7 |
3-1 |
5-3 |
Florida Int’l. |
88.3 |
88.1 |
88.3 |
88.2 |
2-3 |
4-4 |
Charlotte |
84.3 |
84.6 |
84.5 |
84.5 |
1-3 |
3-5 |
Old Dominion |
73.5 |
73.7 |
73.4 |
73.5 |
0-4 |
1-7 |
|
||||||
West Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
CUSA |
Overall |
Southern Miss. |
94.4 |
93.1 |
94.6 |
94.0 |
3-1 |
5-3 |
Louisiana Tech |
93.8 |
94.2 |
94.1 |
94.0 |
4-0 |
7-1 |
U A B |
90.1 |
92.0 |
91.0 |
91.1 |
3-1 |
6-1 |
North Texas |
90.5 |
89.8 |
90.8 |
90.4 |
2-2 |
3-5 |
Rice |
79.7 |
80.8 |
78.9 |
79.8 |
0-4 |
0-8 |
Texas-San Antonio |
74.7 |
77.0 |
74.5 |
75.4 |
2-2 |
3-4 |
U T E P |
68.6 |
72.9 |
69.4 |
70.3 |
0-4 |
1-6 |
CUSA Averages |
86.1 |
86.7 |
86.5 |
86.4 |
||
|
||||||
FBS Independents |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
Conf. |
Overall |
Notre Dame |
117.6 |
115.8 |
117.3 |
116.9 |
x |
5-2 |
BYU |
99.6 |
99.6 |
99.6 |
99.6 |
x |
3-4 |
Army |
93.8 |
93.8 |
92.8 |
93.5 |
x |
3-5 |
Liberty |
87.9 |
89.0 |
88.0 |
88.3 |
x |
5-3 |
New Mexico St. |
76.2 |
78.3 |
76.2 |
76.9 |
x |
0-8 |
Massachusetts |
60.7 |
62.6 |
59.4 |
60.9 |
x |
1-7 |
Indep. Averages |
89.3 |
89.8 |
88.9 |
89.3 |
||
|
||||||
Mid-American Conference |
||||||
East Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
MAC |
Overall |
Ohio |
94.2 |
93.3 |
94.7 |
94.1 |
3-1 |
4-4 |
Buffalo |
90.5 |
91.1 |
91.8 |
91.1 |
2-2 |
4-4 |
Miami (Ohio) |
89.3 |
88.0 |
89.7 |
89.0 |
3-1 |
4-4 |
Kent St. |
87.4 |
87.2 |
87.7 |
87.4 |
2-2 |
3-5 |
Bowling Green |
72.7 |
72.4 |
72.6 |
72.6 |
1-3 |
2-6 |
Akron |
69.4 |
69.3 |
68.2 |
68.9 |
0-4 |
0-8 |
|
||||||
West Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
MAC |
Overall |
Western Michigan |
98.6 |
97.7 |
98.5 |
98.3 |
3-2 |
5-4 |
Northern Illinois |
94.3 |
93.4 |
94.5 |
94.1 |
2-2 |
3-5 |
Ball St. |
90.2 |
89.7 |
90.2 |
90.0 |
3-1 |
4-4 |
Toledo |
88.2 |
88.5 |
88.9 |
88.5 |
2-2 |
5-3 |
Eastern Michigan |
87.3 |
87.5 |
87.8 |
87.6 |
1-3 |
4-4 |
Central Michigan |
84.7 |
85.4 |
85.5 |
85.2 |
3-2 |
5-4 |
MAC Averages |
87.2 |
87.0 |
87.5 |
87.2 |
||
|
||||||
Mountain West Conference |
||||||
Mountain Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
MWC |
Overall |
Boise St. |
106.4 |
106.1 |
106.7 |
106.4 |
3-0 |
6-1 |
Air Force |
104.3 |
105.7 |
105.4 |
105.1 |
4-1 |
6-2 |
Utah St. |
102.5 |
101.7 |
103.3 |
102.5 |
3-1 |
4-3 |
Wyoming |
98.7 |
100.9 |
99.3 |
99.6 |
3-1 |
6-2 |
Colorado St. |
85.9 |
89.6 |
86.4 |
87.3 |
2-2 |
3-5 |
New Mexico |
79.9 |
82.5 |
78.8 |
80.4 |
0-4 |
2-6 |
|
||||||
West Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
MWC |
Overall |
San Diego St. |
97.6 |
99.3 |
97.4 |
98.1 |
4-1 |
7-1 |
Hawaii |
95.8 |
97.3 |
95.0 |
96.0 |
2-2 |
5-3 |
Fresno St. |
94.9 |
95.8 |
95.2 |
95.3 |
1-2 |
3-4 |
San Jose St. |
87.3 |
89.3 |
87.1 |
87.9 |
1-3 |
4-4 |
Nevada |
86.1 |
87.4 |
85.2 |
86.2 |
1-3 |
4-4 |
U N L V |
84.6 |
86.1 |
84.3 |
85.0 |
1-4 |
2-6 |
MWC Averages |
93.7 |
95.1 |
93.7 |
94.2 |
||
|
||||||
Pac-12 Conference |
||||||
North Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
P12 |
Overall |
Oregon |
118.4 |
118.4 |
119.6 |
118.8 |
5-0 |
7-1 |
Washington |
114.3 |
114.0 |
115.3 |
114.5 |
2-3 |
5-3 |
Washington St. |
112.7 |
111.9 |
113.2 |
112.6 |
1-4 |
4-4 |
Stanford |
103.7 |
103.0 |
103.4 |
103.4 |
3-3 |
4-4 |
California |
102.5 |
102.1 |
103.0 |
102.5 |
1-4 |
4-4 |
Oregon St. |
97.6 |
98.6 |
97.1 |
97.8 |
2-2 |
3-4 |
|
||||||
South Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
P12 |
Overall |
Utah |
123.7 |
122.6 |
124.5 |
123.6 |
4-1 |
7-1 |
U S C |
109.6 |
110.2 |
110.0 |
110.0 |
4-1 |
5-3 |
Arizona St. |
106.9 |
106.2 |
107.4 |
106.9 |
2-3 |
5-3 |
U C L A |
101.0 |
100.8 |
100.6 |
100.8 |
3-2 |
3-5 |
Arizona |
98.9 |
98.7 |
98.6 |
98.7 |
2-3 |
4-4 |
Colorado |
96.2 |
96.0 |
96.0 |
96.0 |
1-4 |
3-5 |
Pac-12 Averages |
107.1 |
106.9 |
107.4 |
107.1 |
||
|
||||||
Southeastern Conference |
||||||
East Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
SEC |
Overall |
Georgia |
126.5 |
124.6 |
126.4 |
125.8 |
3-1 |
6-1 |
Florida |
123.0 |
120.1 |
122.6 |
121.9 |
5-1 |
7-1 |
South Carolina |
111.7 |
110.0 |
111.1 |
110.9 |
2-4 |
3-5 |
Missouri |
111.3 |
108.9 |
110.8 |
110.3 |
2-2 |
5-3 |
Tennessee |
109.5 |
109.1 |
108.3 |
109.0 |
2-3 |
3-5 |
Kentucky |
108.4 |
107.0 |
107.3 |
107.6 |
2-4 |
4-4 |
Vanderbilt |
97.3 |
96.0 |
96.0 |
96.4 |
1-3 |
2-5 |
|
||||||
West Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
SEC |
Overall |
Alabama |
135.3 |
132.2 |
136.0 |
134.5 |
5-0 |
8-0 |
L S U |
129.1 |
126.8 |
129.0 |
128.3 |
4-0 |
8-0 |
Auburn |
123.7 |
122.0 |
123.7 |
123.1 |
3-2 |
6-2 |
Texas A&M |
117.4 |
115.6 |
116.4 |
116.5 |
3-2 |
5-3 |
Mississippi St. |
109.1 |
105.5 |
113.1 |
109.2 |
1-4 |
3-5 |
Ole Miss |
105.5 |
104.5 |
105.2 |
105.1 |
2-3 |
3-5 |
Arkansas |
94.9 |
95.2 |
94.2 |
94.8 |
0-5 |
2-6 |
SEC Averages |
114.5 |
112.7 |
114.3 |
113.8 |
||
|
||||||
Sunbelt Conference |
||||||
East Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
SBC |
Overall |
Appalachian St. |
108.7 |
107.8 |
108.4 |
108.3 |
4-0 |
7-0 |
Georgia Southern |
94.8 |
94.5 |
94.0 |
94.5 |
2-1 |
4-3 |
Georgia St. |
92.3 |
93.6 |
92.0 |
92.6 |
3-1 |
6-2 |
Troy |
92.1 |
92.7 |
91.2 |
92.0 |
1-2 |
3-4 |
Coastal Carolina |
87.0 |
88.1 |
86.4 |
87.2 |
0-3 |
3-4 |
|
||||||
West Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
SBC |
Overall |
Louisiana |
101.1 |
101.2 |
101.0 |
101.1 |
2-1 |
5-2 |
Arkansas St. |
91.1 |
91.3 |
90.8 |
91.1 |
2-2 |
4-4 |
Louisiana-Monroe |
86.0 |
86.7 |
85.8 |
86.2 |
2-1 |
3-4 |
Texas St. |
82.0 |
82.7 |
81.4 |
82.0 |
1-2 |
2-5 |
South Alabama |
74.3 |
76.8 |
73.5 |
74.9 |
0-4 |
1-7 |
SBC Averages |
90.9 |
91.5 |
90.5 |
91.0 |
Conference Power Ratings |
||
# |
League |
Average |
1 |
Southeastern |
113.8 |
2 |
Big Ten |
111.2 |
3 |
Big 12 |
109.3 |
4 |
Pac-12 |
107.1 |
5 |
Atlantic Coast |
105.1 |
6 |
American |
97.3 |
7 |
Mountain West |
94.2 |
8 |
Sun Belt |
91.0 |
9 |
Independents |
89.3 |
10 |
Mid-American |
87.2 |
11 |
Conference USA |
86.4 |
Top 5 Group of 5 |
|
1 |
SMU |
2 |
Appalachian St. |
3 |
Cincinnati |
4 |
Navy |
5 |
Boise St. |
This Week’s Look At Some Key Contenders Not Getting Enough Publicity
What a difference a strange weekend of football makes! With Kansas State beating Oklahoma, and LSU taking care of business against Auburn, the playoff picture began to swing toward the SEC getting two teams into the Playoffs. At the moment, the Big Ten still has three undefeated teams, so there is a chance that the Big Ten could get two teams into the Playoffs if the regular season ends with a 13-0 team and a 12-1 or 11-1 team.
Minnesota will get its chance to prove whether they truly are Golden Gophers or just pests digging a hole in the ground. If Minny can beat Penn State, and then the Gophers follow it up with wins at Iowa and at home against Wisconsin, then the least Minnesota could get for a postseason reward would be their first trip to the Rose Bowl since January of 1962.
Having closely watched and diagnosed every scrimmage play in Minnesota’s last two games, this team looks to be legitimate. The Gophers have an excellent inside-outside running attack. Their running backs hit the perimeter quickly with speed. The Gophers can get yards between the tackles as well. Of all the teams we have seen so far this year, Minnesota’s rushing attack is the most consistent among teams that do not use the option.
The Gopher passing attack is one of the best in the nation with Tanner Morgan just a fraction behind Ohio State’s Justin Fields in league passer efficiency.
The Gophers aren’t all offense. The Minnesota defense is surrendering just 284 yards (13th best in the nation) and 20 points per game. But, the defense is on a roll. After giving up 119 points in their first four games, UM has given up just 41 in the last four.
Penn State and Minnesota both have the week off to prepare for this big game. Unfortunately, this is the same day as the Alabama-LSU game, so it will be second banana to the first of many “game of the years.”
Baylor is still undefeated, the final team from the Big 12 that can say that now that Oklahoma has fallen. In order for Baylor to get to the playoffs, the Bears must run the table, and that means almost assuredly having to beat Oklahoma twice. A split puts Baylor in either the Sugar Bowl or Cotton Bowl, if that it their only loss.
Out in the Pac-12, Utah and Oregon face key games this week. Utah plays at Washington, while Oregon plays at USC. If both division leaders win, then they must be put in contention for a playoff spot if the Conference Championship Game winner is 12-1, while the runner-up is 11-2.
In the Group of 5 this week, SMU plays at Memphis, and the winner will be a co-leader with Cincinnati for the Cotton Bowl bid. Appalachian State is still undefeated, but the Mountaineers will have to win out (including winning at South Carolina), while SMU will have to lose a game, before Appy has a chance to get to the Cotton Bowl.
This Week’s Playoffs and Bowl Projections
American Athletic
SMU held on to a narrow road win against Houston, so the Mustangs are the current top Group of 5 team in line to play at home in the Cotton Bowl. Memphis is still alive only by a fluke missed chip-shot field goal by Tulsa. Cincinnati and Navy still have shots at that Cotton Bowl bid, while Central Florida is still around with two losses should a bunch of teams lose in November.
East Carolina, Houston, and South Florida still have minute chances to get bowl eligible, but our ratings are calling for all three to miss out. Tulane needs one more win to become bowl eligible, and they must beat Tulsa this weekend, or the Green Wave could miss out. Their final three games are tough.
Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 7
Atlantic Coast
Clemson should be able to coast home with a 13-0 record and Playoff bid. The Tigers should win their final four regular season games by margins of 20 or more every week. The Coastal Division will probably send a 5-3 team to the ACC Championship Game, and other than North Carolina looking for revenge, we don’t see any of the other contenders making the title game close.
Notre Dame caucuses with the ACC for bowl bids, and with no viable ACC team looking formidable, the Irish will most likely take the next bowl in the ACC pecking order. This week, we are going with a Big Ten team in the Orange Bowl, so for now it looks like the Citrus Bowl for the number two team in this group.
Including Notre Dame, there is a good chance that the ACC will have 12 bowl eligible teams, meaning there will be room for two additional at-large bowl bids. The ACC has secondary agreements with the Birmingham and Gasparilla Bowls. The Birmingham Bowl will most definitely need an at-large team, so ACC #11 will get that bid. The Gasparilla Bowl most likely will not need an at-large team, but that ACC #12 will still receive an at-large bid. With the SEC obviously falling well short this year, that #12 ACC team could end up in Memphis in the Liberty Bowl.
Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 12 (includes Notre Dame)
Big 12
With Oklahoma losing, for now, we are keeping the Big 12 out of the Playoffs. There is still a 20% chance that either Baylor or Oklahoma run the table to stay in contention at the end. One team will have to sweep the other to pull it off.
TCU’s upset of Texas (wasn’t really an upset) puts the Horned Frogs back into position to become bowl eligible, while Texas Tech’s loss to Kansas knocks the Red Raiders out of contention for now. We’re not ready to put Les Miles and his Jayhawks into contention, but if KU knocks off Kansas State this weekend, then we might be forced to give them some consideration.
Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 7
Big Ten
Ohio State has an excellent chance to make the Playoffs as the top seed. On the other hand, they might have to get there by beating an undefeated Penn State or Minnesota team, and they have to play at Michigan. Could history from repeat itself from 50 years ago? In 1969, the best ever Ohio State team coming off a really embarrassing blowout of Michigan the year before, went to Ann Arbor to face a two-loss Michigan team. Michigan’s defense did the near-impossible, stopping the greatest Buckeye offense in school history. We can hardly wait.
Indiana’s win at Nebraska virtually guarantees that the Hoosiers will become bowl eligible. Illinois’s win over Purdue puts Lovie Smith’s Illini in strong contention for a bowl bid, while Purdue played itself out of contention.
Michigan State is struggling, but the Spartans should win six or seven games to become bowl eligible, while Nebraska is hoping the return of Adrian Martinez and games with Purdue and Maryland will get the Cornhuskers to 6-6.
Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 10
Conference USA
This is a down year for CUSA, as no team is in contention for the Group of 5 NY6 Bowl bid. In the East, Marshall is now in control of their destiny thanks to a last-play 53-yard field goal against Western Kentucky. Florida Atlantic and WKU are the other teams still in contention, but all three of these teams will get bowl bids.
In the West, it is looking like there could be a three-way tie between Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, and UAB. North Texas is suffering a disappointing year, and the Mean Green have been removed from bowl contention by our ratings.
We expect CUSA to have on more bowl eligible team than it has bowl contracts, and that sixth team might be headed to Shreveport, Louisiana in late December.
Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 6
Independents
(not including Notre Dame, which counts with the ACC)
This has turned into a disappointing season for Army, and we now have the Black Knights finishing under .500. Brigham Young has an automatic bowl bid to Hawaii if the Cougars go 6-6 or better. 6-6 is the most likely record for BYU.
Liberty has not been to a bowl in its short history in FBS football, but the Flames have a secondary agreement with the Cure Bowl should the Cure Bowl need an at-large team. This week, for the first time, we have the Cure Bowl needing an at-large team, so Hugh Freeze might be staying quite warm in Florida in December.
Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 2
Mid-American
This is a down year in the MAC, but the parity is going to lead to many more bowl eligible teams than the MAC has bowls to place them. The MAC has five guaranteed bowl bids plus secondary agreements with two others. One of those other secondary agreements is the Quick Lane Bowl which will not need an at-large team. The Frisco Bowl always needs an at-large team, since there is only one tie-in, so the MAC can expect a second consecutive bowl bid there. This year, the MAC is likely to see at least one additional team go to a bowl that has no MACtion secondary agreement. Because our ratings this week forecast 79 bowl eligible teams, the odd team out is likely to be a 6-6 MAC team.
Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 8 (But only 7 will receive bids)
Mountain West
The Mountain West will most likely lose its secondary chance at the Hawaii and Cheez-it Bowls, which means that the league will only have five guaranteed bowl bids. This league will most likely have seven bowl eligible teams, so two members will be headed East and South in December.
Boise State still remains in contention for the Group of 5 NY6 bid to the Cotton Bowl, but the Broncos still have three tough tests remaining. They must beat Utah State and Wyoming and then the West Division representative in the MWC Championship Game. For now, we have Boise winning the championship but not getting the Cotton Bowl bid.
Air Force has a chance to finish 10-2, and the Falcons could be moved out of the MWC’s bowl tie-ins in order to fly east to a more prestigious bowl, maybe replacing the SEC in a Southern bowl game. Air Force can fill up most stadiums with Cadets, and they don’t have problems with airline reservations.
Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 7
Pac-12
Oregon and Utah still have minor chances to sneak into the Playoffs, but until teams like Clemson, Ohio State, Alabama, LSU, and Penn State start losing games, we will put the league champion in Pasadena.
This week, we remove California from bowl contention and put rival Stanford back in. We also remove Arizona for now, so there will not be extra bowl eligible teams if our scenario plays itself out.
Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 7
Southeastern
It may be the strongest league in college football, but the SEC is going to be the league that causes multiple bowls to look elsewhere for at-large teams. The Independence and Birmingham Bowls must already be looking at potential at-large teams. The Belk, Liberty, and Music City Bowls might also wish to start looking around for potential at-large teams.
If both Alabama and LSU make the playoffs, and then Florida and Georgia (or Auburn) then receive Sugar and Orange Bowl bids, four teams are already removed before the meat of the bowls look for what’s left.
Because Missouri is ineligible for a bowl, and Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, and South Carolina look to be out of bowl contention, an Ole Miss Egg Bowl win over Mississippi State will likely leave the SEC with just 8 Bowl Eligible teams. Only four teams will remain for the nine SEC spots needed to fulfill the SEC’s bowl contracts.
The Citrus, Outback, Gator, and Texas Bowls are the bowls that the SEC will need to fill. That leaves the Belk, Music City, Liberty, Birmingham, and Independence Bowls without SEC teams.
Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 8
Sun Belt
Congratulations go out to Georgia State for joining Appy State as teams already eligible for bowls this year. Appy State is hoping for a miracle. If the Mountaineers win at South Carolina and finish the regular season 13-0, there is a chance they could get the Cotton Bowl bid. For now, we see them coming up one game short.
Louisiana is one win away from becoming bowl eligible, while Arkansas State and Georgia Southern have legitimate paths to bowl eligibility, and UL-Monroe has a path, just not as legitimate as the other two.
Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 5
Bowl |
Conf |
Conf |
Team |
Team |
Bahamas |
MAC |
CUSA |
Western Michigan |
Marshall |
Frisco |
AAC |
At-large |
SMU |
[Miami (O)] |
Cure |
AAC |
SBC |
[Liberty] |
Arkansas St. |
New Mexico |
CUSA |
MWC |
Louisiana Tech |
San Diego St. |
Boca Raton |
AAC |
MAC |
Memphis |
Eastern Michigan |
Camellia |
MAC |
SBC |
Central Michigan |
Louisiana |
Las Vegas |
MWC #1 |
Pac-12 |
Boise St. |
Washington St. |
New Orleans |
CUSA |
SBC #1 |
Southern Miss. |
Appalachian St. |
Gasparilla |
AAC |
CUSA |
Central Florida |
Florida Atlantic |
Hawaii |
BYU/MWC |
AAC |
BYU |
Navy |
Independence |
ACC |
SEC |
Florida St. |
[Western Kentucky] |
Quick Lane |
ACC |
Big Ten |
North Carolina St. |
Illiois |
Military |
ACC |
AAC |
Pittsburgh |
Temple |
Pinstripe |
ACC |
Big Ten |
North Carolina |
Michigan St. |
Texas |
Big 12 |
SEC |
Texas |
Texas A&M |
Holiday |
Pac-12 |
Big Ten |
USC |
Michigan |
Cheez-It |
Big 12 |
Pac-12 |
TCU |
Stanford |
Camping World |
ACC |
Big 12 |
Virginia Tech |
Oklahoma St. |
Cotton |
At-large |
At-large |
Cincinnati |
Baylor |
First Responder |
CUSA |
Big 12 |
UAB |
[Utah St.] |
Redbox |
Pac-12 |
Big Ten |
Washington |
Iowa |
Music City |
SEC |
ACC |
[Air Force] |
Louisville |
Orange |
ACC |
BTen/SEC |
Georgia |
Penn St. |
Belk |
ACC |
SEC |
Wake Forest |
[Buffalo] |
Sun |
ACC |
Pac-12 |
Virginia |
Arizona St. |
Liberty |
Big 12 |
SEC |
Iowa St. |
[Duke] |
Arizona |
SBC |
MWC |
Georgia Southern |
San Jose St. |
Alamo |
Big 12 |
Pac-12 |
Kansas St. |
Oregon |
Citrus |
SEC |
BTen/ACC |
Auburn |
Notre Dame |
Outback |
Big Ten |
SEC |
Indiana |
Tennessee |
Rose |
Big Ten |
Pac-12 |
Minnesota |
Utah |
Sugar |
Big 12 |
SEC |
Oklahoma |
Florida |
Birmingham |
AAC |
SEC |
Tulane |
[Miami (Fla.)] |
Taxslayer/Gator |
SEC |
Big Ten |
Kentucky |
Wisconsin |
Idaho Potato |
MAC |
MWC |
Toledo |
Wyoming |
Armed Forces |
Big Ten |
MWC |
Nebraska |
Hawaii |
Dollar General |
MAC |
SBC |
Ohio U |
Georgia St. |
FBS PLAYOFFS |
||||
Fiesta |
Top 4 |
Top 4 |
Ohio St. |
LSU |
Peach |
Top 4 |
Top 4 |
Alabama |
Clemson |
|
||||
Championship |
Fiesta |
Peach |
Ohio St. |
Alabama |
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections |
October 20, 2019
PiRate College Football Ratings: October 21, 2019
This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads
Thursday |
October 24 |
|||
Home |
Visitors |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Houston |
SMU |
-8.1 |
-7.1 |
-7.5 |
Friday |
October 25 |
|||
Home |
Visitors |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Colorado |
USC |
-11.1 |
-12.2 |
-12.3 |
Saturday |
October 26 |
|||
Home |
Visitors |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Massachusetts |
Connecticut |
-7.6 |
-9.3 |
-7.6 |
Purdue |
Illinois |
11.4 |
10.5 |
11.8 |
Army |
San Jose St. |
13.6 |
11.4 |
13.3 |
Georgia St. |
Troy |
-2.2 |
-1.3 |
-1.6 |
Clemson |
Boston College |
33.5 |
30.9 |
33.7 |
Tulsa |
Memphis |
-12.8 |
-12.0 |
-12.5 |
Toledo |
Eastern Michigan |
3.5 |
3.7 |
3.8 |
Texas A&M |
Mississippi St. |
9.6 |
11.6 |
3.9 |
Temple |
Central Florida |
-7.0 |
-7.0 |
-6.7 |
Western Michigan |
Bowling Green |
25.8 |
24.9 |
25.5 |
Nebraska |
Indiana |
-2.1 |
0.0 |
-2.1 |
Buffalo |
Central Michigan |
5.9 |
5.6 |
6.0 |
Northwestern |
Iowa |
-9.7 |
-8.8 |
-10.7 |
East Carolina |
South Florida |
-2.0 |
-1.2 |
-2.0 |
Florida St. |
Syracuse |
3.0 |
3.9 |
3.4 |
Rutgers |
Liberty |
-2.4 |
-4.2 |
-3.9 |
Rice |
Southern Miss. |
-11.8 |
-8.8 |
-12.5 |
Utah |
California |
20.2 |
19.4 |
20.2 |
Wyoming |
Nevada |
12.9 |
13.5 |
13.7 |
Air Force |
Utah St. |
0.0 |
2.5 |
-0.1 |
New Mexico |
Hawaii |
-12.2 |
-10.6 |
-12.4 |
Marshall |
Western Kentucky |
2.8 |
1.2 |
2.1 |
Stanford |
Arizona |
7.6 |
6.7 |
7.1 |
Oregon |
Washington St. |
10.1 |
11.2 |
11.2 |
Fresno St. |
Colorado St. |
19.2 |
16.3 |
19.4 |
Kentucky |
Missouri |
-5.0 |
-4.0 |
-6.2 |
North Carolina |
Duke |
1.7 |
2.2 |
3.0 |
Michigan St. |
Penn St. |
-5.4 |
-5.3 |
-5.8 |
Kent St. |
Miami (O) |
2.2 |
3.7 |
2.5 |
South Alabama |
Appalachian St. |
-32.1 |
-28.5 |
-32.7 |
Georgia Southern |
New Mexico St. |
18.2 |
15.2 |
16.8 |
Iowa St. |
Oklahoma St. |
10.3 |
10.6 |
11.2 |
Middle Tennessee |
Florida Int’l. |
0.2 |
-0.8 |
0.1 |
Old Dominion |
Florida Atlantic |
-13.0 |
-12.1 |
-13.9 |
Ball St. |
Ohio U |
1.1 |
1.7 |
0.8 |
Alabama |
Arkansas |
43.1 |
39.2 |
44.5 |
Tennessee |
South Carolina |
-3.3 |
-2.0 |
-4.7 |
Kansas St. |
Oklahoma |
-14.6 |
-14.0 |
-14.8 |
Minnesota |
Maryland |
12.7 |
13.2 |
13.3 |
Navy |
Tulane |
-1.3 |
0.6 |
-1.2 |
TCU |
Texas |
-4.5 |
-2.0 |
-4.4 |
Pittsburgh |
Miami (Fla.) |
4.8 |
5.4 |
4.4 |
Louisville |
Virginia |
-8.1 |
-8.7 |
-8.5 |
Northern Illinois |
Akron |
22.3 |
21.0 |
23.4 |
Kansas |
Texas Tech |
-7.7 |
-6.7 |
-6.8 |
Charlotte |
North Texas |
-5.1 |
-4.1 |
-5.6 |
Ohio St. |
Wisconsin |
18.7 |
18.0 |
19.8 |
Arkansas St. |
Texas St. |
8.8 |
8.0 |
8.7 |
LSU |
Auburn |
9.0 |
8.4 |
9.4 |
UTEP |
Louisiana Tech |
-23.1 |
-18.4 |
-22.6 |
Michigan |
Notre Dame |
1.5 |
1.4 |
1.6 |
UCLA |
Arizona St. |
-6.2 |
-5.7 |
-7.7 |
UNLV |
San Diego St. |
-11.6 |
-12.1 |
-12.1 |
This Week’s PiRate Ratings
PiRate Ratings |
|||||
# |
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
1 |
Ohio St. |
137.4 |
136.4 |
138.4 |
137.4 |
2 |
Alabama |
135.3 |
132.0 |
136.0 |
134.4 |
3 |
Clemson |
132.6 |
130.0 |
133.4 |
132.0 |
4 |
L S U |
129.4 |
127.1 |
129.5 |
128.7 |
5 |
Oklahoma |
125.8 |
125.1 |
125.7 |
125.5 |
6 |
Georgia |
126.2 |
124.3 |
126.1 |
125.5 |
7 |
Auburn |
123.4 |
121.7 |
123.2 |
122.8 |
8 |
Penn St. |
122.7 |
121.8 |
122.8 |
122.5 |
9 |
Wisconsin |
121.7 |
121.4 |
121.7 |
121.6 |
10 |
Florida |
122.7 |
119.8 |
122.3 |
121.6 |
11 |
Utah |
121.6 |
120.4 |
122.2 |
121.4 |
12 |
Notre Dame |
120.5 |
118.8 |
120.4 |
119.9 |
13 |
Oregon |
119.1 |
119.2 |
120.5 |
119.6 |
14 |
Michigan |
118.9 |
117.2 |
119.0 |
118.4 |
15 |
Iowa |
117.7 |
115.8 |
117.5 |
117.0 |
16 |
Iowa St. |
115.9 |
116.6 |
116.2 |
116.2 |
17 |
Texas A&M |
116.7 |
115.0 |
115.3 |
115.7 |
18 |
Washington |
114.0 |
113.7 |
115.0 |
114.2 |
19 |
Minnesota |
114.2 |
113.9 |
113.7 |
113.9 |
20 |
Baylor |
114.0 |
114.2 |
113.6 |
113.9 |
21 |
Michigan St. |
114.3 |
113.5 |
114.0 |
113.9 |
22 |
Missouri |
114.2 |
111.8 |
114.0 |
113.3 |
23 |
South Carolina |
113.6 |
111.9 |
113.4 |
113.0 |
24 |
Texas |
111.7 |
111.9 |
111.9 |
111.8 |
25 |
Washington St. |
112.0 |
111.1 |
112.3 |
111.8 |
26 |
U S C |
109.9 |
110.7 |
110.6 |
110.4 |
27 |
Central Florida |
110.4 |
109.6 |
111.0 |
110.3 |
28 |
Mississippi St. |
110.1 |
106.4 |
114.5 |
110.3 |
29 |
Virginia |
108.8 |
109.0 |
108.9 |
108.9 |
30 |
Oklahoma St. |
108.6 |
109.0 |
108.0 |
108.5 |
31 |
Arizona St. |
108.4 |
107.7 |
109.2 |
108.5 |
32 |
Appalachian St. |
108.8 |
107.8 |
108.6 |
108.4 |
33 |
Cincinnati |
108.3 |
107.1 |
108.9 |
108.1 |
34 |
Kansas St. |
108.3 |
108.1 |
107.9 |
108.1 |
35 |
Indiana |
108.5 |
107.2 |
107.9 |
107.9 |
36 |
SMU |
107.2 |
107.0 |
108.5 |
107.6 |
37 |
Memphis |
106.8 |
106.8 |
107.5 |
107.0 |
38 |
Pittsburgh |
106.6 |
106.4 |
106.9 |
106.6 |
39 |
Tennessee |
107.3 |
106.9 |
105.7 |
106.6 |
40 |
Purdue |
106.8 |
106.6 |
106.3 |
106.6 |
41 |
T C U |
105.2 |
108.0 |
105.5 |
106.2 |
42 |
Boise St. |
106.1 |
105.8 |
106.4 |
106.1 |
43 |
North Carolina |
105.7 |
105.7 |
106.9 |
106.1 |
44 |
Texas Tech |
105.8 |
106.0 |
105.0 |
105.6 |
45 |
Duke |
105.6 |
104.9 |
105.3 |
105.3 |
46 |
Kentucky |
106.2 |
104.8 |
104.8 |
105.3 |
47 |
Utah St. |
104.9 |
104.0 |
105.9 |
104.9 |
48 |
Miami (Fla.) |
104.8 |
104.1 |
105.5 |
104.8 |
49 |
Ole Miss |
105.2 |
104.2 |
104.9 |
104.8 |
50 |
Northwestern |
105.4 |
104.5 |
104.3 |
104.7 |
51 |
Florida St. |
104.5 |
104.6 |
104.5 |
104.6 |
52 |
California |
104.3 |
104.0 |
105.0 |
104.4 |
53 |
Syracuse |
104.5 |
103.8 |
104.1 |
104.1 |
54 |
Maryland |
104.5 |
103.7 |
103.3 |
103.8 |
55 |
Nebraska |
103.4 |
104.2 |
102.8 |
103.5 |
56 |
Wake Forest |
103.5 |
102.9 |
103.8 |
103.4 |
57 |
Stanford |
103.6 |
102.7 |
103.1 |
103.1 |
58 |
Air Force |
101.9 |
103.4 |
102.8 |
102.7 |
59 |
Boston College |
102.2 |
102.1 |
102.7 |
102.3 |
60 |
West Virginia |
102.1 |
101.5 |
101.2 |
101.6 |
61 |
Virginia Tech |
101.0 |
101.1 |
101.4 |
101.2 |
62 |
Temple |
100.8 |
100.1 |
101.8 |
100.9 |
63 |
Louisiana |
100.9 |
101.0 |
100.8 |
100.9 |
64 |
Tulane |
99.8 |
100.5 |
100.4 |
100.2 |
65 |
Fresno St. |
99.0 |
99.8 |
99.5 |
99.4 |
66 |
BYU |
99.3 |
99.3 |
99.3 |
99.3 |
67 |
North Carolina St. |
99.3 |
99.0 |
99.4 |
99.2 |
68 |
Arizona |
99.0 |
99.0 |
98.9 |
99.0 |
69 |
U C L A |
99.2 |
99.0 |
98.5 |
98.9 |
70 |
San Diego St. |
98.3 |
100.1 |
98.3 |
98.9 |
71 |
Illinois |
98.3 |
99.1 |
97.5 |
98.3 |
72 |
Wyoming |
97.3 |
99.4 |
97.6 |
98.1 |
73 |
Houston |
96.6 |
97.5 |
98.5 |
97.5 |
74 |
Oregon St. |
97.3 |
98.3 |
96.8 |
97.5 |
75 |
Louisville |
97.7 |
97.3 |
97.4 |
97.4 |
76 |
Western Michigan |
97.5 |
96.4 |
97.2 |
97.0 |
77 |
Navy |
95.5 |
98.1 |
96.2 |
96.6 |
78 |
Vanderbilt |
97.0 |
95.7 |
95.7 |
96.1 |
79 |
Hawaii |
95.7 |
97.0 |
94.9 |
95.9 |
80 |
Army |
96.0 |
95.9 |
95.2 |
95.7 |
81 |
Colorado |
95.9 |
95.5 |
95.4 |
95.6 |
82 |
Kansas |
95.2 |
96.2 |
95.2 |
95.5 |
83 |
Arkansas |
95.2 |
95.7 |
94.5 |
95.2 |
84 |
Georgia Tech |
94.6 |
92.9 |
95.0 |
94.2 |
85 |
Troy |
94.3 |
94.8 |
93.4 |
94.2 |
86 |
Louisiana Tech |
94.0 |
94.0 |
94.3 |
94.1 |
87 |
Southern Miss. |
94.2 |
92.6 |
94.3 |
93.7 |
88 |
Georgia Southern |
93.3 |
92.7 |
92.2 |
92.8 |
89 |
Ohio |
92.9 |
91.9 |
93.3 |
92.7 |
90 |
Florida Atlantic |
91.9 |
91.4 |
92.8 |
92.0 |
91 |
Northern Illinois |
92.2 |
91.1 |
92.3 |
91.9 |
92 |
Tulsa |
91.0 |
91.8 |
92.0 |
91.6 |
93 |
Western Kentucky |
90.6 |
91.8 |
92.4 |
91.6 |
94 |
Florida Int’l. |
91.4 |
91.4 |
91.6 |
91.5 |
95 |
Ball St. |
91.5 |
91.1 |
91.6 |
91.4 |
96 |
North Texas |
91.2 |
90.5 |
91.7 |
91.1 |
97 |
U A B |
89.9 |
91.8 |
90.8 |
90.9 |
98 |
Marshall |
90.4 |
90.0 |
91.5 |
90.6 |
99 |
Georgia St. |
89.6 |
91.0 |
89.3 |
90.0 |
100 |
Buffalo |
89.3 |
89.8 |
90.4 |
89.8 |
101 |
Arkansas St. |
89.7 |
89.8 |
89.2 |
89.6 |
102 |
Liberty |
89.0 |
90.3 |
89.3 |
89.5 |
103 |
Middle Tennessee |
89.1 |
88.1 |
89.2 |
88.8 |
104 |
South Florida |
88.3 |
89.3 |
88.5 |
88.7 |
105 |
Toledo |
88.3 |
88.6 |
89.0 |
88.6 |
106 |
Kent St. |
88.2 |
88.2 |
88.7 |
88.4 |
107 |
Miami (Ohio) |
88.5 |
87.0 |
88.7 |
88.1 |
108 |
Nevada |
87.5 |
88.9 |
86.9 |
87.8 |
109 |
Eastern Michigan |
87.2 |
87.4 |
87.7 |
87.5 |
110 |
Coastal Carolina |
86.8 |
87.9 |
86.2 |
87.0 |
111 |
Central Michigan |
85.9 |
86.7 |
86.9 |
86.5 |
112 |
Louisiana-Monroe |
85.8 |
86.5 |
85.6 |
86.0 |
113 |
San Jose St. |
85.4 |
87.5 |
85.0 |
86.0 |
114 |
U N L V |
84.2 |
85.6 |
83.7 |
84.5 |
115 |
East Carolina |
83.8 |
85.6 |
84.0 |
84.5 |
116 |
Colorado St. |
82.8 |
86.6 |
83.1 |
84.2 |
117 |
Charlotte |
83.6 |
83.9 |
83.6 |
83.7 |
118 |
Texas St. |
83.4 |
84.2 |
83.0 |
83.5 |
119 |
Rutgers |
84.1 |
83.6 |
82.9 |
83.5 |
120 |
New Mexico |
80.0 |
82.8 |
79.0 |
80.6 |
121 |
Rice |
79.9 |
81.3 |
79.2 |
80.2 |
122 |
New Mexico St. |
78.2 |
80.6 |
78.5 |
79.1 |
123 |
Old Dominion |
76.4 |
76.8 |
76.4 |
76.5 |
124 |
Texas-San Antonio |
74.5 |
76.8 |
74.3 |
75.2 |
125 |
South Alabama |
74.2 |
76.8 |
73.3 |
74.8 |
126 |
Bowling Green |
74.1 |
74.0 |
74.2 |
74.1 |
127 |
Connecticut |
71.9 |
75.4 |
70.8 |
72.7 |
128 |
Akron |
72.5 |
72.6 |
71.4 |
72.1 |
129 |
U T E P |
68.4 |
73.1 |
69.2 |
70.2 |
130 |
Massachusetts |
62.3 |
64.1 |
61.2 |
62.5 |
PiRate Ratings By Conference
American Athletic Conference |
||||||
East Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
AAC |
Overall |
Central Florida |
110.4 |
109.6 |
111.0 |
110.3 |
2-1 |
5-2 |
Cincinnati |
108.3 |
107.1 |
108.9 |
108.1 |
3-0 |
6-1 |
Temple |
100.8 |
100.1 |
101.8 |
100.9 |
2-1 |
5-2 |
South Florida |
88.3 |
89.3 |
88.5 |
88.7 |
1-2 |
3-4 |
East Carolina |
83.8 |
85.6 |
84.0 |
84.5 |
0-3 |
3-4 |
Connecticut |
71.9 |
75.4 |
70.8 |
72.7 |
0-4 |
1-6 |
|
||||||
West Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
AAC |
Overall |
SMU |
107.2 |
107.0 |
108.5 |
107.6 |
3-0 |
7-0 |
Memphis |
106.8 |
106.8 |
107.5 |
107.0 |
2-1 |
6-1 |
Tulane |
99.8 |
100.5 |
100.4 |
100.2 |
2-1 |
5-2 |
Houston |
96.6 |
97.5 |
98.5 |
97.5 |
1-2 |
3-4 |
Navy |
95.5 |
98.1 |
96.2 |
96.6 |
3-1 |
5-1 |
Tulsa |
91.0 |
91.8 |
92.0 |
91.6 |
0-3 |
2-5 |
AAC Averages |
96.7 |
97.4 |
97.3 |
97.1 |
||
|
||||||
Atlantic Coast Conference |
||||||
Atlantic Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
ACC |
Overall |
Clemson |
132.6 |
130.0 |
133.4 |
132.0 |
5-0 |
7-0 |
Florida St. |
104.5 |
104.6 |
104.5 |
104.6 |
2-3 |
3-4 |
Syracuse |
104.5 |
103.8 |
104.1 |
104.1 |
0-3 |
3-4 |
Wake Forest |
103.5 |
102.9 |
103.8 |
103.4 |
2-1 |
6-1 |
Boston College |
102.2 |
102.1 |
102.7 |
102.3 |
2-2 |
4-3 |
North Carolina St. |
99.3 |
99.0 |
99.4 |
99.2 |
1-2 |
4-3 |
Louisville |
97.7 |
97.3 |
97.4 |
97.4 |
2-2 |
4-3 |
|
||||||
Coastal Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
ACC |
Overall |
Virginia |
108.8 |
109.0 |
108.9 |
108.9 |
3-1 |
5-2 |
Pittsburgh |
106.6 |
106.4 |
106.9 |
106.6 |
2-1 |
5-2 |
North Carolina |
105.7 |
105.7 |
106.9 |
106.1 |
2-2 |
3-4 |
Duke |
105.6 |
104.9 |
105.3 |
105.3 |
2-2 |
4-3 |
Miami (Fla.) |
104.8 |
104.1 |
105.5 |
104.8 |
1-3 |
3-4 |
Virginia Tech |
101.0 |
101.1 |
101.4 |
101.2 |
3-2 |
5-2 |
Georgia Tech |
94.6 |
92.9 |
95.0 |
94.2 |
1-3 |
2-5 |
ACC Averages |
105.1 |
104.6 |
105.4 |
105.0 |
||
|
||||||
Big 12 Conference |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
B12 |
Overall |
Oklahoma |
125.8 |
125.1 |
125.7 |
125.5 |
4-0 |
7-0 |
Iowa St. |
115.9 |
116.6 |
116.2 |
116.2 |
3-1 |
5-2 |
Baylor |
114.0 |
114.2 |
113.6 |
113.9 |
4-0 |
7-0 |
Texas |
111.7 |
111.9 |
111.9 |
111.8 |
3-1 |
5-2 |
Oklahoma St. |
108.6 |
109.0 |
108.0 |
108.5 |
1-3 |
4-3 |
Kansas St. |
108.3 |
108.1 |
107.9 |
108.1 |
1-2 |
4-2 |
T C U |
105.2 |
108.0 |
105.5 |
106.2 |
1-2 |
3-3 |
Texas Tech |
105.8 |
106.0 |
105.0 |
105.6 |
1-3 |
3-4 |
West Virginia |
102.1 |
101.5 |
101.2 |
101.6 |
1-3 |
3-4 |
Kansas |
95.2 |
96.2 |
95.2 |
95.5 |
0-4 |
2-5 |
Big 12 Averages |
109.3 |
109.7 |
109.0 |
109.3 |
||
|
||||||
Big Ten Conference |
||||||
East Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
BTen |
Overall |
Ohio St. |
137.4 |
136.4 |
138.4 |
137.4 |
4-0 |
7-0 |
Penn St. |
122.7 |
121.8 |
122.8 |
122.5 |
4-0 |
7-0 |
Michigan |
118.9 |
117.2 |
119.0 |
118.4 |
3-2 |
5-2 |
Michigan St. |
114.3 |
113.5 |
114.0 |
113.9 |
2-2 |
4-3 |
Indiana |
108.5 |
107.2 |
107.9 |
107.9 |
2-2 |
5-2 |
Maryland |
104.5 |
103.7 |
103.3 |
103.8 |
1-3 |
3-4 |
Rutgers |
84.1 |
83.6 |
82.9 |
83.5 |
0-5 |
1-6 |
|
||||||
West Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
BTen |
Overall |
Wisconsin |
121.7 |
121.4 |
121.7 |
121.6 |
3-1 |
6-1 |
Iowa |
117.7 |
115.8 |
117.5 |
117.0 |
2-2 |
5-2 |
Minnesota |
114.2 |
113.9 |
113.7 |
113.9 |
4-0 |
7-0 |
Purdue |
106.8 |
106.6 |
106.3 |
106.6 |
1-3 |
2-5 |
Northwestern |
105.4 |
104.5 |
104.3 |
104.7 |
0-4 |
1-5 |
Nebraska |
103.4 |
104.2 |
102.8 |
103.5 |
2-2 |
4-3 |
Illinois |
98.3 |
99.1 |
97.5 |
98.3 |
1-3 |
3-4 |
Big Ten Averages |
111.3 |
110.6 |
110.9 |
110.9 |
||
|
||||||
Conference USA |
||||||
East Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
CUSA |
Overall |
Florida Atlantic |
91.9 |
91.4 |
92.8 |
92.0 |
2-1 |
4-3 |
Western Kentucky |
90.6 |
91.8 |
92.4 |
91.6 |
4-0 |
5-2 |
Florida Int’l. |
91.4 |
91.4 |
91.6 |
91.5 |
2-2 |
4-3 |
Marshall |
90.4 |
90.0 |
91.5 |
90.6 |
2-1 |
4-3 |
Middle Tennessee |
89.1 |
88.1 |
89.2 |
88.8 |
1-2 |
2-5 |
Charlotte |
83.6 |
83.9 |
83.6 |
83.7 |
0-3 |
2-5 |
Old Dominion |
76.4 |
76.8 |
76.4 |
76.5 |
0-3 |
1-6 |
|
||||||
West Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
CUSA |
Overall |
Louisiana Tech |
94.0 |
94.0 |
94.3 |
94.1 |
3-0 |
6-1 |
Southern Miss. |
94.2 |
92.6 |
94.3 |
93.7 |
2-1 |
4-3 |
North Texas |
91.2 |
90.5 |
91.7 |
91.1 |
2-1 |
3-4 |
U A B |
89.9 |
91.8 |
90.8 |
90.9 |
3-1 |
6-1 |
Rice |
79.9 |
81.3 |
79.2 |
80.2 |
0-3 |
0-7 |
Texas-San Antonio |
74.5 |
76.8 |
74.3 |
75.2 |
2-2 |
3-4 |
U T E P |
68.4 |
73.1 |
69.2 |
70.2 |
0-3 |
1-5 |
CUSA Averages |
86.1 |
86.7 |
86.5 |
86.4 |
||
|
||||||
FBS Independents |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
Conf. |
Overall |
Notre Dame |
120.5 |
118.8 |
120.4 |
119.9 |
x |
5-1 |
BYU |
99.3 |
99.3 |
99.3 |
99.3 |
x |
3-4 |
Army |
96.0 |
95.9 |
95.2 |
95.7 |
x |
3-4 |
Liberty |
89.0 |
90.3 |
89.3 |
89.5 |
x |
5-2 |
New Mexico St. |
78.2 |
80.6 |
78.5 |
79.1 |
x |
0-7 |
Massachusetts |
62.3 |
64.1 |
61.2 |
62.5 |
x |
1-6 |
Indep. Averages |
90.9 |
91.5 |
90.6 |
91.0 |
||
|
||||||
Mid-American Conference |
||||||
East Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
MAC |
Overall |
Ohio |
92.9 |
91.9 |
93.3 |
92.7 |
2-1 |
3-4 |
Buffalo |
89.3 |
89.8 |
90.4 |
89.8 |
1-2 |
3-4 |
Kent St. |
88.2 |
88.2 |
88.7 |
88.4 |
2-1 |
3-4 |
Miami (Ohio) |
88.5 |
87.0 |
88.7 |
88.1 |
2-1 |
3-4 |
Bowling Green |
74.1 |
74.0 |
74.2 |
74.1 |
1-2 |
2-5 |
Akron |
72.5 |
72.6 |
71.4 |
72.1 |
0-3 |
0-7 |
|
||||||
West Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
MAC |
Overall |
Western Michigan |
97.5 |
96.4 |
97.2 |
97.0 |
2-2 |
4-4 |
Northern Illinois |
92.2 |
91.1 |
92.3 |
91.9 |
1-2 |
2-5 |
Ball St. |
91.5 |
91.1 |
91.6 |
91.4 |
3-0 |
4-3 |
Toledo |
88.3 |
88.6 |
89.0 |
88.6 |
1-2 |
4-3 |
Eastern Michigan |
87.2 |
87.4 |
87.7 |
87.5 |
1-2 |
4-3 |
Central Michigan |
85.9 |
86.7 |
86.9 |
86.5 |
3-1 |
5-3 |
MAC Averages |
87.3 |
87.1 |
87.6 |
87.3 |
||
|
||||||
Mountain West Conference |
||||||
Mountain Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
MWC |
Overall |
Boise St. |
106.1 |
105.8 |
106.4 |
106.1 |
3-0 |
6-1 |
Utah St. |
104.9 |
104.0 |
105.9 |
104.9 |
3-0 |
4-2 |
Air Force |
101.9 |
103.4 |
102.8 |
102.7 |
3-1 |
5-2 |
Wyoming |
97.3 |
99.4 |
97.6 |
98.1 |
2-1 |
5-2 |
Colorado St. |
82.8 |
86.6 |
83.1 |
84.2 |
1-2 |
2-5 |
New Mexico |
80.0 |
82.8 |
79.0 |
80.6 |
0-3 |
2-5 |
|
||||||
West Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
MWC |
Overall |
Fresno St. |
99.0 |
99.8 |
99.5 |
99.4 |
1-1 |
3-3 |
San Diego St. |
98.3 |
100.1 |
98.3 |
98.9 |
3-1 |
6-1 |
Hawaii |
95.7 |
97.0 |
94.9 |
95.9 |
1-2 |
4-3 |
Nevada |
87.5 |
88.9 |
86.9 |
87.8 |
1-2 |
4-3 |
San Jose St. |
85.4 |
87.5 |
85.0 |
86.0 |
1-3 |
3-4 |
U N L V |
84.2 |
85.6 |
83.7 |
84.5 |
1-3 |
2-5 |
MWC Averages |
93.6 |
95.1 |
93.6 |
94.1 |
||
|
||||||
Pac-12 Conference |
||||||
North Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
P12 |
Overall |
Oregon |
119.1 |
119.2 |
120.5 |
119.6 |
4-0 |
6-1 |
Washington |
114.0 |
113.7 |
115.0 |
114.2 |
2-3 |
5-3 |
Washington St. |
112.0 |
111.1 |
112.3 |
111.8 |
1-3 |
4-3 |
California |
104.3 |
104.0 |
105.0 |
104.4 |
1-3 |
4-3 |
Stanford |
103.6 |
102.7 |
103.1 |
103.1 |
2-3 |
3-4 |
Oregon St. |
97.3 |
98.3 |
96.8 |
97.5 |
2-2 |
3-4 |
|
||||||
South Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
P12 |
Overall |
Utah |
121.6 |
120.4 |
122.2 |
121.4 |
3-1 |
6-1 |
U S C |
109.9 |
110.7 |
110.6 |
110.4 |
3-1 |
4-3 |
Arizona St. |
108.4 |
107.7 |
109.2 |
108.5 |
2-2 |
5-2 |
Arizona |
99.0 |
99.0 |
98.9 |
99.0 |
2-2 |
4-3 |
U C L A |
99.2 |
99.0 |
98.5 |
98.9 |
2-2 |
2-5 |
Colorado |
95.9 |
95.5 |
95.4 |
95.6 |
1-3 |
3-4 |
Pac-12 Averages |
107.0 |
106.8 |
107.3 |
107.0 |
||
|
||||||
Southeastern Conference |
||||||
East Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
SEC |
Overall |
Georgia |
126.2 |
124.3 |
126.1 |
125.5 |
3-1 |
6-1 |
Florida |
122.7 |
119.8 |
122.3 |
121.6 |
5-1 |
7-1 |
Missouri |
114.2 |
111.8 |
114.0 |
113.3 |
2-1 |
5-2 |
South Carolina |
113.6 |
111.9 |
113.4 |
113.0 |
2-3 |
3-4 |
Tennessee |
107.3 |
106.9 |
105.7 |
106.6 |
1-3 |
2-5 |
Kentucky |
106.2 |
104.8 |
104.8 |
105.3 |
1-4 |
3-4 |
Vanderbilt |
97.0 |
95.7 |
95.7 |
96.1 |
1-3 |
2-5 |
|
||||||
West Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
SEC |
Overall |
Alabama |
135.3 |
132.0 |
136.0 |
134.4 |
4-0 |
7-0 |
L S U |
129.4 |
127.1 |
129.5 |
128.7 |
3-0 |
7-0 |
Auburn |
123.4 |
121.7 |
123.2 |
122.8 |
3-1 |
6-1 |
Texas A&M |
116.7 |
115.0 |
115.3 |
115.7 |
2-2 |
4-3 |
Mississippi St. |
110.1 |
106.4 |
114.5 |
110.3 |
1-3 |
3-4 |
Ole Miss |
105.2 |
104.2 |
104.9 |
104.8 |
2-3 |
3-5 |
Arkansas |
95.2 |
95.7 |
94.5 |
95.2 |
0-4 |
2-5 |
SEC Averages |
114.5 |
112.7 |
114.3 |
113.8 |
||
|
||||||
Sunbelt Conference |
||||||
East Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
SBC |
Overall |
Appalachian St. |
108.8 |
107.8 |
108.6 |
108.4 |
3-0 |
6-0 |
Troy |
94.3 |
94.8 |
93.4 |
94.2 |
1-1 |
3-3 |
Georgia Southern |
93.3 |
92.7 |
92.2 |
92.8 |
2-1 |
3-3 |
Georgia St. |
89.6 |
91.0 |
89.3 |
90.0 |
2-1 |
5-2 |
Coastal Carolina |
86.8 |
87.9 |
86.2 |
87.0 |
0-3 |
3-4 |
|
||||||
West Division |
||||||
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
SBC |
Overall |
Louisiana |
100.9 |
101.0 |
100.8 |
100.9 |
2-1 |
5-2 |
Arkansas St. |
89.7 |
89.8 |
89.2 |
89.6 |
1-2 |
3-4 |
Louisiana-Monroe |
85.8 |
86.5 |
85.6 |
86.0 |
2-1 |
3-4 |
Texas St. |
83.4 |
84.2 |
83.0 |
83.5 |
1-1 |
2-4 |
South Alabama |
74.2 |
76.8 |
73.3 |
74.8 |
0-3 |
1-6 |
SBC Averages |
90.7 |
91.3 |
90.2 |
90.7 |
Conference Ratings
# |
League |
Average |
1 |
Southeastern |
113.8 |
2 |
Big Ten |
110.9 |
3 |
Big 12 |
109.3 |
4 |
Pac-12 |
107.0 |
5 |
Atlantic Coast |
105.0 |
6 |
American |
97.1 |
7 |
Mountain West |
94.1 |
8 |
Independents |
91.0 |
9 |
Sun Belt |
90.7 |
10 |
Mid-American |
87.3 |
11 |
Conference USA |
86.4 |
Top 5 Group of 5 |
|
1 |
SMU |
2 |
Appalachian St. |
3 |
Cincinnati |
4 |
Navy |
5 |
Boise St. |
This Week’s Bowl and Playoff Projections
There was considerable shuffling of the bowl projections this week, with these teams being affected the most (by alphabetical conference).
AAC: With Boise St. losing, the likelihood of the AAC Champion making it to the Cotton Bowl went way up. SMU is the leader at the moment, but the Mustangs will have to win at Memphis more than likely if they are to stay home for a NY6 Bowl. Memphis has the most favorable schedule, while Cincinnati and Navy are still in the race.
ACC: Clemson cannot afford to lose a game, and most every so-called college football expert believes this is so. There is no strong number two in this league, but Notre Dame caucuses here for bowl invitation, so the Irish look like a sure thing to garner one of the NY6 Bowl bids. Boston College, Louisville, and Syracuse appear to be on the outside looking in from the Atlantic Division, while Miami now drops into our predicted 5-7 teams and falls out of the bowl picture for now. The Coastal is still a wide open race, but we think Pittsburgh has the best chance to become fodder for Clemson in the Title Game.
Big 12: Baylor keeps surprising a lot of folks, as even the folks in Nevada were a bit surprised at how they handles Oklahoma State in Stillwater. Can the Bears beat Oklahoma, or to put it more accurately beat them once in two tries? If Oklahoma runs the table, the Sooners are in the Playoffs. If Baylor runs the table, they will most likely make the playoffs. If they split two games, then the LSU-Alabama loser at 11-1 will be in the Playoffs. Texas and Iowa State appear to be jostling for third place as of now. Meanwhile, a group that included Oklahoma State, Kansas State, TCU, and Texas Tech all have shots a bowl eligibility, and we believe three of the four will make it.
Big Ten: Wisconsin’s loss to Illinois, makes the Penn State-Ohio State game in Columbus a Playoff Qualifier. The winner of that game has a great shot at being 13-0 and Playoff bound. Michigan and Michigan State are now fighting it out for third in the East, while Indiana virtually locked up a fifth bowl eligible spot in the division. Minnesota still gets no respect, and the Gophers will host Penn State in two weeks with a chance to get that respect. If they upset the Nittany Lions, Roses could be in Minnesota’s future for the first time since January 1, 1962. With the Big Ten having the most specific bowl rules, it appears that in order to keep teams out of making repeat bowl appearances, some teams with two fewer wins may jump over others for more prestigious bowls.
Conference USA: This league has no chance to earn the NY6 Bowl bid as too many teams would have to lose before a Louisiana Tech or UAB would even enter the contention picture. Marshall will host Western Kentucky this weekend, and the winner will just about wrap up the East Division flag. The West is still a four-team mess, but Louisiana Tech has the upper hand. UAB hosts the Bulldogs in November, and the winner of that game will most likely take the West Division crown.
Independents: Since Notre Dame figures in the ACC bowl, we don’t include them here. The big change here was removing Army from bowl contention and placing BYU back into bowl contention. If BYU goes 6-6 or better, they are guaranteed the Hawaii Bowl bid. Keep an eye on Liberty. If Liberty can win at Rutgers this Saturday, the Flames are looking at an eight-win season. Liberty has a secondary bowl agreement with the Cure, but we see that bowl being filled by the regular tie-ins. Still, this school could make its first bowl appearance, because a lot of Southern bowls are going to need at-large teams.
MAC: This conference uses the work “MACtion” to describe its excitement, but Wacky MAC might be a more accurate theme in the Midwest. Almost all the craziness is in the West Division, where Ball State has come from out of nowhere to take a commanding lead in the division. The Cardinals were picked to finish last or second to last by most preseason predictions. The other team picked to finish last or second to last may be chief competition. Central Michigan plays Ball State in Muncie in November, and the winner is probably the Division champion. In the East, Ohio won a big game over Kent State this past Saturday, and the Bobcats need only beat Buffalo to guarantee another East Division crown. Mainstays at the top, Western Michigan and Toledo, are hurting right now, and Toledo must get quarterback Mitchell Guadagni back from injury, as they have no offense without him.
Mountain West: Boise State is now on the outside looking in for the Cotton Bowl. The Broncos have two or three more games where the opponent could be talented enough to pin another loss on them. Utah State hosts BSU in November, and if quarterback Jordan Love is 100% healthy, the Aggies might be the better team. With Hawaii losing at home to Air Force, the San Diego State-Fresno State winner is going to take the West Division title. This league will have one or two extra teams to fill at-large bowls, and we believe one of the two will get in. Wyoming did not get an invitation last year, so the Cowboys could be heading Southeast of Laramie.
Pac-12: Oregon is one play away from being squarely in the Playoff picture, but then the Donner Party was just one mountain away from getting to the Pacific Coast safely. The Ducks may have seen their hopes dashed by an Auburn snowstorm. Utah’s loss to USC prevents the Utes from having a chance to make it to the Playoffs. The only unsure thing in this conference is if California can get to 6-6 without Chase Garbers at QB.
SEC: Georgia looks quite vulnerable all of a sudden. If the Bulldogs couldn’t pass or score versus South Carolina and Kentucky, how will they do so against Florida and Auburn. Short of a major quick fix, it would not be shocking if Georgia lost twice more, giving Florida the East title. With Missouri ineligible, that leaves South Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt fighting for two bowl bids. USC and Vandy have too much to conquer to get to six wins, while Kentucky may have to beat rival Louisville to make it to bowl eligibility. Tennessee has four winnable games left on their schedule, so for now, we are picking the Vols to sneak in at 6-6. In the West, we believe Mississippi State is in big trouble and likely headed to 5-7 with Ole Miss. Arkansas is the #14 team in the league and may finish 0-8. The SEC is going to come up four to six bowl spots short.
Sunbelt: Appalachian State probably has the best overall shot of going 13-0 from a Group of 5 Conference, but can the Mountaineers jump over a 12-1 AAC champion? Aside from that, the other news is that this league will have extra bowl eligible teams and should see at least one at-large bid come to the league.
Bowl |
Conf |
Conf |
Team |
Team |
Bahamas |
MAC |
CUSA |
Central Michigan |
Marshall |
Frisco |
AAC |
At-large |
SMU |
[Toledo] |
Cure |
AAC |
SBC |
East Carolina |
Arkansas St. |
New Mexico |
CUSA |
MWC |
Louisiana Tech |
Fresno St. |
Boca Raton |
AAC |
MAC |
Central Florida |
Ball St. |
Camellia |
MAC |
SBC |
Western Michigan |
Georgia St. |
Las Vegas |
MWC #1 |
Pac-12 |
Boise St. |
Washington St. |
New Orleans |
CUSA |
SBC #1 |
Southern Miss. |
Appalachian St. |
Gasparilla |
AAC |
CUSA |
Cincinnati |
Florida Atlantic |
Hawaii |
BYU/MWC |
AAC |
BYU |
Navy |
Independence |
ACC |
SEC |
Florida St. |
[UAB] |
Quick Lane |
ACC |
Big Ten |
North Carolina |
Indiana |
Military |
ACC |
AAC |
Duke |
Temple |
Pinstripe |
ACC |
Big Ten |
North Carolina St. |
Purdue |
Texas |
Big 12 |
SEC |
Oklahoma St. |
Texas A&M |
Holiday |
Pac-12 |
Big Ten |
Washington |
Iowa |
Cheez-It |
Big 12 |
Pac-12 |
Texas Tech |
Arizona |
Camping World |
ACC |
Big 12 |
Pittsburgh |
Iowa St. |
Cotton |
At-large |
At-large |
Memphis |
Penn St. |
First Responder |
CUSA |
Big 12 |
North Texas |
[Hawaii] |
Redbox |
Pac-12 |
Big Ten |
Arizona St. |
Michigan |
Music City |
SEC |
ACC |
[Wyoming] |
Wake Forest |
Orange |
ACC |
BTen/SEC |
Notre Dame |
Florida |
Belk |
ACC |
SEC |
Virginia Tech |
Kentucky |
Sun |
ACC |
Pac-12 |
Virginia |
USC |
Liberty |
Big 12 |
SEC |
Kansas St. |
[Liberty] |
Arizona |
SBC |
MWC |
Louisiana |
San Diego St. |
Alamo |
Big 12 |
Pac-12 |
Texas |
Utah |
Citrus |
SEC |
BTen/ACC |
Georgia |
Wisconsin |
Outback |
Big Ten |
SEC |
Michigan St. |
Auburn |
Rose |
Big Ten |
Pac-12 |
Minnesota |
Oregon |
Sugar |
Big 12 |
SEC |
Baylor |
LSU |
Birmingham |
AAC |
SEC |
Tulane |
[Troy] |
Taxslayer/Gator |
SEC |
Big Ten |
Tennessee |
Nebraska |
Idaho Potato |
MAC |
MWC |
Eastern Michigan |
Utah St. |
Armed Forces |
Big Ten |
MWC |
[Western Ky.] |
Air Force |
Dollar General |
MAC |
SBC |
Ohio U |
Georgia Southern |
FBS PLAYOFFS |
||||
Fiesta |
Top 4 |
Top 4 |
Ohio St. |
Oklahoma |
Peach |
Top 4 |
Top 4 |
Alabama |
Clemson |
Championship |
Fiesta |
Peach |
Ohio St. |
Alabama |
October 6, 2019
PiRate College Football Ratings: October 7, 2019
This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads
October 9 to |
October 12 |
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Wednesday |
October 9 |
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