College Football Update

Welcome back to the PiRate Ship.  We hope we have now plugged all the leaks onboard, and our vessel is seaworthy for the potential 9-month long, two-part football season.

As of this morning, 76 FBS football teams plan to play football in the Fall, and 54 FBS football teams hope to play in the Spring.

After working many hours more than in a typical season, the Bucs onboard our PiRate Ship have finally calculated the ratings for all 130 teams.

There is a fly in the ointment here.  Our annual ratings are based on a par score of 100.0.  In other words, if you total the ratings for the 130 teams, the PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings should each total to 13,000.  How can the ratings adjust to par if 54 teams play no games every week until at least February, while 76 teams do play?  Should we then adjust our ratings so that the 76 teams playing total to 7,600?  Doing so, would require changing all the ratings, so that one group totaled 7,600 and another group totaled 5,400.

Ah, but there’s more to this than meets the eyes.  Most of these teams will play a conference only schedule.  How can a computer algorithm properly compare a team in the Atlantic Coast Conference with a team in the Southeastern Conference if there are no inter-conference games?

For many years, Major League Baseball had no inter-league play.  The best team in the American League and the best team in the National League had no common opponents.  The 1954 New York Giants won 13 fewer games than the 1954 Cleveland Indians.  The baseball media believed this World Series could be over in the minimum four games.  They were 100% correct that it took just four games to decide the Series, but the wrong team won the four games.  Other than the Yankees and White Sox, the rest of the AL was about as weak as it has ever been in a non-World War season.   The NL was six-deep in quality that year, and the 6th place St. Louis Cardinals were talented enough to be a first division team in the AL.

With 16 total teams, it may be somewhat possible to compare any eight with any other eight when the two pairs of  eight never play.  That is not possible with 130 or 76 or 54 teams.  Our ratings may need to be adjusted so that each conference averages 100.0.  But, then where would that leave Brigham Young, Army, and Liberty?  These three Independents plan to play some number of games.  How can we possibly make these three teams total 300.0 and then play games against other teams in leagues that average 100.0?

That is where we are at the present time.  Our conclusion today, thanks to the evil Covid-19, Corona, is that we will release separate preseason ratings, three different ways.

Our first set of PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings will show you all 130 teams rated just like Covid never existed.

Our second set of PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings will show you the 76 teams playing this Fall.  If any of the remaining 54 teams actually play in the Spring, we will be here to rate those teams the best way we know how.

Our third set of PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings will show you the rating of teams within their own conference sampling.

Here’s an example, using a rating for State U.

Their normal preseason ratings might be

PiRate: 109.7

Mean: 108.9

Bias: 110.1

Let’s say State U plays in one of the 76 teams that plan to play this Fall.  After removing the ratings of the 54 teams not playing this fall, State U’s preseason ratings will no doubt change, because the exact average of those 54 teams will not be 100.0.  Let’s say that the 54 teams opting out due to Corona average 97.4.  The average of the remaining 76 teams is now 101.8.  Reducing that average to 100.0 might now adjust State U’s ratings to:

PiRate: 107.7

Mean:  106.9

Bias: 108.1

Let’s say that State U plays in the ACC, which will now have Notre Dame playing a full conference schedule this year.  The 15-team league will need to sum up to 1500.0 in all three ratings.  Normally, the ACC might have begun the preseason with a conference average of 110.0, or basically 10-points stronger than an average team.  Now State U’s ratings against a closed league of 15 ACC teams would have to be adjusted to:

PiRate: 99.7

Mean: 99.0

Bias: 100.1

So what ratings would we go with in this unique scenario?  We can submit the regular ratings before the first game is ever played, because nothing would be different in this regard.  Nobody has played a game, so the preseason ratings would be the same.  Definitely, we realize that with limited or no Spring Practice and with assumed 2-deep Depth Charts considerably less accurate than in past years, these ratings cannot be as accurate as past seasons.

If we wait until all 76 teams’ schedules are in place and then adjust the ratings so that every team will be rated on the same scale, then what happens when on Tuesday of a game week, one team has to quarantine and schedule somebody not rated on the same scale?  For instance, let’s say Florida State is scheduled to play North Carolina State, and the Wolf Pack has to cancel due to 20 positive cases.  What if at the same time Florida’s scheduled game with Vanderbilt is also postponed, because the Commodores must cancel.  Might a Florida State versus Florida game be scheduled on the quick?

Our final conclusion is to go with a 76-team ratings’ release that sum as close to 7600 for each rating and then to go with a different 54-team ratings’ release in the Spring, assuming the Spring actually does feature those 54 teams.

Monday afternoon Eastern Time, we will reveal our raw preseason ratings for the entire 130 teams and then separate ratings for the 76-team field, as well as ratings for teams by each conference.  We will then go with the 76-team format for the Fall season.

There will be no conference previews.  We will release ratings and pointspreads for weekly games, hoping that we can keep up with whatever alterations are made to the schedule.  We are sailing into the Corona Triangle this year.  Let’s hope we can get through it to the other side.

Note: In our few hours of spare time, we have been working on a tabletop football game with NFL teams and with college teams.  If you remember the old Avalon Hill/Sports Illustrated games that once existed, our games will be similar but different.  If we ever determine them to be marketable, you will not need the specialized 10-39 dice used by AH/SI.  Regular, 6-sided dice will work.  Hopefully, we will have the first set available to be purchased at a ridiculously cheap price with the chance to purchase future sets at additionally ridiculously cheap prices.  By sending out the charts in PDF form for you to print, we can sell the game for less than $10.  That is if we ever get any of the sets finished.  We have been working on three different sets–a 32-team Best of NFL by franchise from 2000 to 2019; the same best of for each SEC team between 2000 & 2019; and the best of for each Big Ten team between 2000 & 2019.  In the works in the future will be best of teams from each Major Conference between 2000 & 2019, as well as the best of NFL (and AFL) from 1960 to 1979, and from 1940 to 1959.

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 17: December 29, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

 

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Baltimore	Pittsburgh	13.8	13.6	14.0
Buffalo	N.Y. Jets	8.3	8.6	9.4
Carolina	New Orleans	-14.7	-13.4	-13.7
Cincinnati	Cleveland	-4.1	-4.5	-4.3
Dallas	Washington	16.0	15.4	15.5
Detroit	Green Bay	-7.2	-8.7	-9.2
Houston	Tennessee	1.4	1.7	1.7
Jacksonville	Indianapolis	-7.8	-8.5	-8.0
Kansas City	LA Chargers	9.2	10.2	10.9
Minnesota	Chicago	6.7	7.8	8.0
New England	Miami	21.7	22.0	21.6
N. Y. Giants	Philadelphia	-7.2	-5.7	-5.0
Tampa Bay	Atlanta	1.5	2.5	2.9
Denver	Oakland	7.1	7.6	7.3
LA Rams	Arizona	9.4	8.3	8.1
Seattle	San Francisco	-3.0	-3.9	-3.9

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

 

Home	Visitor	Total
Baltimore	Pittsburgh	44
Buffalo	N.Y. Jets	38
Carolina	New Orleans	53
Cincinnati	Cleveland	47.5
Dallas	Washington	41.5
Detroit	Green Bay	47.5
Houston	Tennessee	45
Jacksonville	Indianapolis	41
Kansas City	LA Chargers	51.5
Minnesota	Chicago	38.5
New England	Miami	48
N. Y. Giants	Philadelphia	49
Tampa Bay	Atlanta	55.5
Denver	Oakland	44.5
LA Rams	Arizona	51
Seattle	San Francisco	49.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	108.0	108.7	108.2	108.3	19.5	12-3
Buffalo	102.0	103.0	103.0	102.7	17	10-5
N. Y. Jets	94.7	95.4	94.6	94.9	21	6-9
Miami	89.4	89.7	89.6	89.6	28.5	4-11
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	111.7	111.9	112.7	112.1	25	13-2
Pittsburgh	98.9	99.4	99.7	99.3	19	8-7
Cleveland	97.8	97.9	97.8	97.8	24	6-9
Cincinnati	92.7	92.4	92.5	92.5	23.5	1-14
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Houston	102.2	102.7	102.7	102.6	23.5	10-5
Tennessee	101.8	102.0	102.0	101.9	21.5	8-7
Indianapolis	100.1	100.9	100.3	100.4	23	7-8
Jacksonville	91.3	91.4	91.3	91.3	18	5-10
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	107.0	107.7	107.7	107.5	29.5	11-4
LA Chargers	100.4	100.0	99.3	99.9	22	5-10
Denver	99.0	99.3	99.1	99.1	19	6-9
Oakland	92.8	92.7	92.8	92.8	25.5	7-8
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	104.2	104.3	103.9	104.1	22	7-8
Philadelphia	101.9	100.7	100.5	101.0	23.5	8-7
N.Y. Giants	93.7	94.0	94.4	94.0	25.5	4-11
Washington	91.3	91.9	91.4	91.5	19.5	3-12
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	106.8	105.7	105.8	106.1	21.5	10-5
Green Bay	103.8	103.8	104.2	103.9	24	12-3
Chicago	101.1	98.9	98.8	99.6	17	7-8
Detroit	95.0	93.6	93.5	94.1	23.5	3-11-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	108.7	107.2	107.7	107.9	27	12-3
Tampa Bay	101.1	102.3	102.6	102.0	29.5	7-8
Atlanta	100.6	100.8	100.7	100.7	26	6-9
Carolina	93.0	92.8	93.0	92.9	26	5-10
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
San Francisco	107.2	107.9	108.1	107.7	26	12-3
LA Rams	104.5	103.6	104.0	104.0	26.5	8-7
Seattle	101.2	101.0	101.2	101.1	23.5	11-4
Arizona	96.1	96.3	96.9	96.4	24.5	5-9-1

 

 

 

Week 17 Playoff Scenarios

 

NFC

If San Francisco, New Orleans, and Green Bay all win, San Francisco is  the #1 seed, Green Bay the #2 seed, and New Orleans the #3 seed.

If Seattle beats San Francisco, then Green Bay will get #1 seed with win over Detroit.

If Seattle beats San Francisco, and Detroit beats Green Bay, then New Orleans gets #1 seed with a win over Carolina.

If Seatlle beats San Francisco, and Green Bay and New Orleans lose, Seattle gets the #1 seed.

Philadelphia wins the NFC East with a win over the Giants or a Dallas loss to Washington. Any ties in the standings would go to Dallas.

Minnesota is #6 seed regardless of week 17 results.

 

AFC

Houston has clinched the #1 seed in the AFC

New England clinches the #2 seed with a win over Miami or a Kansas City loss to the Chargers.

Houston can pass Kansas City for the #3 seed with a win over Tennessee and a loss by Kansas City.

Buffalo is the #5 seed regardless of week 17 results.

Tennessee wins the #6 seed if they beat Houston, or with a loss with Pittsburgh losing to Baltimore while both Oakland and Indianapolis do not win.

Pittsburgh wins the #6 seed only if they win and the Titans lose.

Oakland can clinch the #6 seed with a win over Denver, plus losses by Tennessee and Pittsburgh and Indianapolis beating Jacksonville.

 

PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

 

What are the chances that the Oakland Raiders, in their last season playing in Oakland, could sneak into the NFL Playoffs?  It ranges from + or – 10-15% depending on which advanced metric expert you listen to.  We’re sabermetric experts that do not perform these type of metrics on pro football.

The way we look at things, Baltimore has nothing to gain this week against Pittsburgh in their season finale.  Their key players should play little or not at all.  Can the Steelers with poor quarterback play rise up and beat the Ravens’ reserves if they couldn’t beat the Jets last week?

Tennessee has now dropped two games in a row to playoff teams in Houston and New Orleans, both at home.  Houston may have a chance to move up to a #3 seed if Kansas City is upset earlier in the day.  

Oakland closes out regular season play at Denver, where the Broncos have nothing to play for in Week 17.

Indianapolis is playing solely to get to 8-8, while Jacksonville has nothing to play for in Week 17.

We think Oakland’s chances to sneak in as the final playoff team is considerably better than 15%.  In fact, just because it would make such a great story, we are going to select the Raiders as our 6th seed to set up a probably Oakland finale against their most hated rivals.

 

AFC Seeding
1	Baltimore
2	New England
3	Kansas City
4	Houston
5	Buffalo
6	Oakland
NFC Seeding
1	Green Bay
2	New Orleans
3	Seattle
4	Philadelphia
5	San Francisco
6	Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round

Kansas City over Oakland

Buffalo over Houston

Minnesota over Seattle

San Francisco over Philadelphia

Divisional Round

Buffalo over Baltimore

Kansas City over New England

Green Bay over Minnesota

New Orleans over San Francisco

Conference Championship

Kansas City over Buffalo

New Orleans over Green Bay

Super Bowl 54

New Orleans over Kansas City

 

 

PiRate College Football Ratings: Final Regular Season

PiRate Ratings Spreads For 2019-2020 Bowls & Playoffs

Including TV & Start Times 

All Times Given Are Eastern Standard Time

 

Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Dec. 20	Bahamas	ESPN	2:00 PM
Buffalo	Charlotte	6.9	7.1	7.6
Dec. 20	Frisco	ESPN2	7:30 PM
Utah St.	Kent St.	7.8	7.4	7.3
Dec. 21	New Mexico	ESPN	2:00 PM
San Diego St.	Central Michigan	5.3	6.1	4.1
Dec. 21	Cure	CBSSN	2:30 PM
Georgia Southern	Liberty	9.5	8.3	8.9
Dec. 21	Boca Raton	ABC	3:30 PM
SMU	Florida Atlantic	3.5	3.2	2.8
Dec.21	Camellia	ESPN	5:30 PM
Arkansas St.	Florida Int’l.	0.9	1.4	0.4
Dec. 21	Las Vegas	ABC	7:30 PM
Washington	Boise St.	5.0	4.3	5.6
Dec. 21	New Orleans	ESPN	9:00 PM
Appalachian St.	UAB	23.1	20.9	21.7
Dec. 23	Gasparilla	ESPN	2:30 PM
Central Florida	Marshall	19.6	19.4	19.6
Dec. 24	Hawaii	ESPN	8:00 PM
BYU	Hawaii	1.3	0.2	1.6
Dec. 26	Independence	ESPN	4:00 PM
Miami (Fla.)	Louisiana Tech	10.6	9.9	11.4
Dec. 26	Quick Lane	ESPN	8:00 PM
Pittsburgh	Eastern Michigan	13.1	12.3	12.6
Dec. 27	Military	ESPN	12:00 PM
North Carolina	Temple	8.3	8.3	7.9
Dec. 27	Pinstripe	ESPN	3:20 PM
Michigan St.	Wake Forest	4.6	4.4	3.4
Dec. 27	Texas	ESPN	6:45 PM
Texas A&M	Oklahoma St.	6.3	3.2	5.1
Dec. 27	Holiday	FS1	8:00 PM
Iowa	USC	7.4	5.3	6.2
Dec. 27	Cheez-It	ESPN	10:15 PM
Washington St.	Air Force	5.4	2.8	4.4
Dec. 28	Camping World	ABC	12:00 PM
Notre Dame	Iowa St.	7.9	6.7	8.3
Dec. 28	Cotton	ESPN	12:00 PM
Penn St.	Memphis	11.3	10.1	10.3
Dec. 28	Peach	ESPN	4:00 PM
LSU	Oklahoma	14.5	13.0	15.1
Dec. 28	Fiesta	ESPN	8:00 PM
Ohio St.	Clemson	1.6	2.3	1.0
Dec. 30	First Responder	ESPN	12:30 PM
Western Michigan	Western Kentucky	2.3	0.7	0.6
Dec. 30	Music City	ESPN	4:00 PM
Mississippi St.	Louisville	9.6	6.8	13.4
Dec. 30	Redbox	Fox	4:00 PM
California	Illinois	4.0	3.2	4.9
Dec. 30	Orange	ESPN	8:00 PM
Florida	Virginia	21.1	18.8	20.7
Dec. 31	Belk	ESPN	12:00 PM
Kentucky	Virginia Tech	1.9	0.8	0.4
Dec. 31	Sun	CBS	2:00 PM
Arizona St.	Florida St.	3.1	2.7	3.2
Dec. 31	Liberty	ESPN	3:45 PM
Kansas St.	Navy	10.8	8.4	9.3
Dec. 31	Arizona	CBSSN	4:30 PM
Wyoming	Georgia St.	9.3	10.2	10.5
Dec. 31	Alamo	ESPN	7:30 PM
Utah	Texas	10.2	9.0	10.9
Jan. 1	Citrus	ABC	1:00 PM
Alabama	Michigan	3.2	1.4	3.2
Jan. 1	Outback	ESPN	1:00 PM
Auburn	Minnesota	5.7	4.3	6.2
Jan. 1	Rose	ESPN	5:00 PM
Wisconsin	Oregon	0.7	0.7	0.3
Jan. 1	Sugar	ESPN	8:45 PM
Georgia	Baylor	8.8	7.0	9.7
Jan. 2	Birmingham	ESPN	3:00 PM
Cincinnati	Boston College	4.0	4.1	4.1
Jan. 2	Gator	ESPN	7:00 PM
Tennessee	Indiana	0.8	1.5	0.6
Jan. 3	Potato	ESPN	3:30 PM
Ohio U	Nevada	8.6	6.3	9.8
Jan. 4	Armed Forces	ESPN	11:30 AM
Tulane	Southern Miss.	5.9	9.6	6.1
Jan. 6	Lending Tree	ESPN	7:30 PM
Louisiana	Miami (O)	12.6	13.8	12.0
Jan. 13	Championship	ESPN	8:00 PM
Fiesta Bowl	Peach Bowl

 

 

 

 

NFL Schedule Recommendation

The NFL has discussed contracting the number of games in the preseason, while possibly adding extra games to the regular season schedule and increasing the number of teams in the Playoffs.  Us PiRates here on the SS Buckaroo believe we can solve all the problems and make it a win-win for owners, players, and fans alike.  Here is our PiRate Principles for the NFL’s future.

1. Reduce the number of preseason games from 4 to 2

2. Make training camp 6 weeks long with preseason games during week 3 and week 4.  Then, teams can practice for another week after their second preseason game before making final cuts.

3. Expand Rosters to 60 players with 3 active quarterbacks in that group of 60

4. A practice or taxi squad of 7 players would be allowed.

5. Expand the regular season to 17 games, with the extra game played at neutral sites.  This would allow teams to play in London, Toronto, and Mexico City without losing home games.  Other incredible venues where there is no pro football team could be Lincoln, NE, San Antonio, Iowa City, IA, Louisville, KY, Birmingham, AL, Knoxville, TN, State College, PA, Ann Arbor, MI, Columbus, OH, South Bend, IN, basically any 80,000 seat plus venue.  The Falcons and Titans could probably fill up Legion Field in Birmingham.  The Bears and Colts could definitely fill up Notre Dame’s stadium.

6. This 17th game would be an inter-conference game.

7. Make the playoffs a full 16 teams with the 4 division winners hosting the next 4 teams with winning records.  This could still be played out in four games like the wildcard and two division winners must play in both conferences.

Look for updated NFL Ratings Tuesday morning, including a plethora of what if playoff situations.

Our PiRate Bowl Coverage will publish Saturday, December 14, after the Army-Navy game has concluded.

PiRate College Football Ratings: November 24, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday	November 26
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Akron	Ohio	-27.7	-27.1	-29.3
Northern Illinois	Western Michigan	-9.4	-9.2	-9.0
Thursday	November 28
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Mississippi St.	Ole Miss	3.7	1.2	7.5
Friday	November 29
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Arkansas	Missouri	-20.0	-17.5	-19.7
Ball St.	Miami (O)	1.4	2.0	1.1
Buffalo	Bowling Green	27.4	28.6	29.1
Central Florida	South Florida	24.1	22.7	24.1
Central Michigan	Toledo	5.0	5.7	5.7
Colorado St.	Boise St.	-18.1	-15.0	-18.0
Eastern Michigan	Kent St.	3.3	3.6	3.3
Memphis	Cincinnati	7.2	7.9	8.2
Nebraska	Iowa	-9.5	-7.8	-10.2
South Alabama	Arkansas St.	-13.9	-11.7	-14.0
TCU	West Virginia	10.3	12.6	11.2
Texas	Texas Tech	6.6	6.5	7.0
Troy	Appalachian St.	-13.8	-12.7	-14.5
Virginia	Virginia Tech	-1.7	-1.8	-2.5
Washington	Washington St.	2.2	2.4	2.6
Saturday	November 30
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Air Force	Wyoming	7.8	7.7	8.3
Arizona St.	Arizona	12.6	12.5	13.6
Auburn	Alabama	-5.0	-3.7	-5.9
Coastal Carolina	Texas St.	10.9	11.6	11.3
Duke	Miami (Fla.)	-4.6	-5.0	-6.1
East Carolina	Tulsa	-6.6	-5.9	-7.9
Florida	Florida St.	22.5	20.0	22.1
Florida Atlantic	Southern Miss.	6.6	7.7	7.3
Georgia Southern	Georgia St.	7.3	6.2	7.5
Georgia Tech	Georgia	-34.6	-34.0	-34.5
Hawaii	Army	4.6	5.7	4.3
Houston	Navy	0.9	-0.5	1.8
Illinois	Northwestern	4.6	6.4	6.1
Kansas	Baylor	-14.0	-13.1	-13.3
Kansas St.	Iowa St.	-0.4	-1.2	-0.7
Kentucky	Louisville	9.2	8.1	8.1
Liberty	New Mexico St.	16.5	15.7	16.8
Louisiana	UL-Monroe	19.5	19.3	19.7
Louisiana Tech	Texas-San Antonio	20.7	19.1	20.5
LSU	Texas A&M	16.0	15.2	16.6
Marshall	Florida Int’l.	6.3	6.3	7.2
Michigan	Ohio St.	-9.6	-9.9	-10.1
Michigan St.	Maryland	18.6	18.8	19.7
Minnesota	Wisconsin	1.3	1.3	0.9
Nevada	UNLV	8.8	8.8	8.7
New Mexico	Utah St.	-14.8	-12.0	-16.7
North Carolina St.	North Carolina	-10.4	-11.2	-11.6
North Texas	UAB	0.3	-2.1	-0.4
Oklahoma St.	Oklahoma	-10.2	-8.8	-10.0
Old Dominion	Charlotte	-12.0	-12.2	-12.6
Oregon	Oregon St.	20.2	19.2	21.2
Penn St.	Rutgers	42.0	41.6	43.5
Pittsburgh	Boston College	5.9	6.0	6.1
Purdue	Indiana	-4.7	-3.9	-5.1
San Diego St.	BYU	-2.5	-1.0	-2.4
San Jose St.	Fresno St.	-3.4	-2.6	-3.4
SMU	Tulane	6.7	5.9	6.5
South Carolina	Clemson	-27.0	-26.9	-29.2
Stanford	Notre Dame	-15.5	-15.4	-16.3
Syracuse	Wake Forest	-0.6	-0.7	-1.8
Temple	Connecticut	30.4	27.2	32.2
Tennessee	Vanderbilt	19.4	20.7	20.4
UCLA	California	-1.9	-1.9	-2.7
Utah	Colorado	31.2	30.4	31.8
UTEP	Rice	-12.2	-9.6	-11.5
Western Kentucky	Middle Tennessee	8.1	9.5	9.6

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Ohio St.	139.8	138.9	140.7	139.8
2	Clemson	138.0	136.1	139.2	137.8
3	L S U	131.3	129.1	131.3	130.6
4	Alabama	129.1	126.0	129.6	128.2
5	Michigan	127.2	126.0	127.7	127.0
6	Utah	126.8	125.9	127.5	126.7
7	Georgia	127.2	125.4	127.3	126.6
8	Florida	125.9	123.3	125.7	124.9
9	Penn St.	123.5	122.6	123.5	123.2
10	Oklahoma	122.3	121.6	121.7	121.9
11	Auburn	122.6	120.8	122.2	121.9
12	Wisconsin	120.7	120.4	120.6	120.6
13	Oregon	119.7	119.6	120.7	120.0
14	Notre Dame	120.3	119.3	120.4	120.0
15	Minnesota	119.0	118.7	118.5	118.7
16	Iowa	118.6	117.1	118.4	118.0
17	Texas A&M	118.3	116.9	117.7	117.7
18	Iowa St.	114.2	114.7	114.2	114.3
19	Baylor	113.7	113.8	113.1	113.5
20	Washington	112.0	111.6	112.7	112.1
21	Virginia Tech	111.3	111.4	112.3	111.7
22	U S C	111.0	111.6	111.8	111.5
23	Central Florida	111.5	110.8	111.8	111.4
24	Washington St.	111.4	110.7	111.6	111.2
25	Oklahoma St.	110.6	111.3	110.2	110.7
26	Kansas St.	110.8	110.5	110.5	110.6
27	Memphis	110.1	110.4	111.2	110.6
28	Tennessee	110.7	110.4	110.1	110.4
29	Mississippi St.	109.9	106.6	113.7	110.1
30	Texas	109.9	110.1	109.6	109.9
31	Indiana	110.1	109.1	109.9	109.7
32	T C U	108.8	111.0	109.2	109.7
33	Kentucky	110.0	108.7	108.9	109.2
34	Missouri	110.2	107.7	109.0	109.0
35	Boise St.	108.5	108.7	108.8	108.7
36	South Carolina	109.5	107.7	108.5	108.6
37	Michigan St.	108.9	108.1	108.2	108.4
38	Virginia	108.1	108.1	108.3	108.2
39	Arizona St.	108.0	107.5	108.5	108.0
40	Ole Miss	107.7	106.9	107.7	107.4
41	Appalachian St.	107.5	106.8	106.8	107.0
42	North Carolina	106.1	106.0	106.7	106.3
43	Miami (Fla.)	106.0	105.6	106.9	106.2
44	Nebraska	106.1	106.3	105.2	105.9
45	Cincinnati	105.9	105.5	106.0	105.8
46	Texas Tech	105.8	106.2	105.1	105.7
47	Air Force	104.1	105.8	105.0	105.0
48	Florida St.	104.8	104.8	105.0	104.9
49	Illinois	104.6	105.4	104.5	104.8
50	SMU	104.3	104.1	104.7	104.4
51	Louisiana	103.8	104.2	103.5	103.8
52	Purdue	103.9	103.7	103.3	103.6
53	Pittsburgh	103.6	103.1	103.7	103.5
54	California	103.4	103.1	103.8	103.4
55	Wake Forest	103.2	102.5	103.5	103.1
56	BYU	102.6	102.8	102.3	102.6
57	Louisville	102.3	102.1	102.3	102.2
58	West Virginia	101.6	101.4	101.0	101.3
59	Oregon St.	101.0	101.9	101.0	101.3
60	Stanford	101.8	100.9	101.1	101.3
61	Northwestern	101.5	100.5	99.9	100.7
62	Tulane	100.1	100.8	100.7	100.5
63	Boston College	100.7	100.1	100.6	100.5
64	Navy	98.6	100.9	99.6	99.7
65	Temple	99.3	99.0	100.5	99.6
66	Wyoming	98.8	100.6	99.2	99.5
67	Syracuse	99.6	98.8	98.7	99.0
68	U C L A	99.0	98.7	98.6	98.8
69	Colorado	98.6	98.5	98.7	98.6
70	Florida Atlantic	97.9	97.9	98.9	98.2
71	Western Michigan	98.5	97.6	98.2	98.1
72	Duke	98.4	97.5	97.8	97.9
73	San Diego St.	97.1	98.7	96.9	97.6
74	Houston	96.5	97.4	98.4	97.4
75	Kansas	96.7	97.7	96.8	97.1
76	Utah St.	96.9	96.4	97.5	96.9
77	Arizona	96.9	96.6	96.4	96.6
78	Georgia Southern	96.7	96.6	96.2	96.5
79	Western Kentucky	95.4	96.2	96.9	96.2
80	Ohio	95.9	95.1	96.4	95.8
81	Hawaii	95.6	97.0	94.8	95.8
82	Army	95.5	95.7	95.0	95.4
83	Buffalo	93.7	94.3	95.1	94.3
84	Louisiana Tech	94.1	94.3	94.1	94.1
85	Southern Miss.	94.3	93.2	94.6	94.0
86	North Carolina St.	94.2	93.3	93.6	93.7
87	Tulsa	92.8	93.6	94.0	93.5
88	Fresno St.	92.6	93.6	92.6	92.9
89	Marshall	92.2	92.0	93.0	92.4
90	Maryland	93.3	92.3	91.5	92.4
91	Arkansas St.	91.7	92.1	91.6	91.8
92	Vanderbilt	92.8	91.2	91.2	91.7
93	Georgia St.	90.9	91.9	90.2	91.0
94	Miami (Ohio)	91.2	90.2	91.5	91.0
95	Troy	91.2	91.6	89.8	90.9
96	Georgia Tech	91.1	89.9	91.3	90.8
97	Nevada	90.4	92.0	89.9	90.8
98	Ball St.	90.1	89.7	90.1	90.0
99	Central Michigan	89.2	89.9	90.2	89.7
100	U A B	88.8	90.8	89.5	89.7
101	Liberty	89.3	90.4	89.4	89.7
102	South Florida	88.9	89.6	89.2	89.2
103	Eastern Michigan	88.8	89.1	89.4	89.1
104	Florida Int’l.	88.9	88.7	88.8	88.8
105	Colorado St.	87.4	90.7	87.9	88.7
106	Middle Tennessee	88.8	88.2	88.8	88.6
107	San Jose St.	87.7	89.5	87.7	88.3
108	Kent St.	88.0	88.0	88.6	88.2
109	Charlotte	87.7	88.0	88.2	88.0
110	Coastal Carolina	87.3	88.4	87.0	87.6
111	Arkansas	87.7	87.6	86.8	87.4
112	Toledo	86.7	86.7	87.0	86.8
113	North Texas	86.6	86.2	86.6	86.5
114	Northern Illinois	86.6	85.9	86.7	86.4
115	Louisiana-Monroe	85.8	86.4	85.3	85.9
116	East Carolina	83.7	85.1	83.7	84.2
117	Rutgers	84.5	84.0	83.0	83.8
118	U N L V	83.1	84.7	82.7	83.5
119	Rice	82.3	83.3	82.0	82.5
120	New Mexico	79.6	81.8	78.2	79.9
121	Texas St.	78.8	79.3	78.2	78.8
122	Texas-San Antonio	75.9	77.7	76.1	76.5
123	New Mexico St.	75.8	77.7	75.6	76.3
124	South Alabama	75.3	77.8	75.1	76.1
125	Old Dominion	73.7	73.8	73.6	73.7
126	Connecticut	71.4	74.2	70.8	72.1
127	U T E P	68.6	72.2	69.0	69.9
128	Bowling Green	69.2	68.6	68.9	68.9
129	Akron	66.8	66.5	65.7	66.3
130	Massachusetts	56.7	58.2	55.7	56.9

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Central Florida	111.5	110.8	111.8	111.4
Cincinnati	105.9	105.5	106.0	105.8
Temple	99.3	99.0	100.5	99.6
South Florida	88.9	89.6	89.2	89.2
East Carolina	83.7	85.1	83.7	84.2
Connecticut	71.4	74.2	70.8	72.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Memphis	110.1	110.4	111.2	110.6
SMU	104.3	104.1	104.7	104.4
Tulane	100.1	100.8	100.7	100.5
Navy	98.6	100.9	99.6	99.7
Houston	96.5	97.4	98.4	97.4
Tulsa	92.8	93.6	94.0	93.5
AAC Averages	96.9	97.6	97.6	97.4
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	138.0	136.1	139.2	137.8
Florida St.	104.8	104.8	105.0	104.9
Wake Forest	103.2	102.5	103.5	103.1
Louisville	102.3	102.1	102.3	102.2
Boston College	100.7	100.1	100.6	100.5
Syracuse	99.6	98.8	98.7	99.0
North Carolina St.	94.2	93.3	93.6	93.7
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Virginia Tech	111.3	111.4	112.3	111.7
Virginia	108.1	108.1	108.3	108.2
North Carolina	106.1	106.0	106.7	106.3
Miami (Fla.)	106.0	105.6	106.9	106.2
Pittsburgh	103.6	103.1	103.7	103.5
Duke	98.4	97.5	97.8	97.9
Georgia Tech	91.1	89.9	91.3	90.8
ACC Averages	104.8	104.2	105.0	104.7
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	122.3	121.6	121.7	121.9
Iowa St.	114.2	114.7	114.2	114.3
Baylor	113.7	113.8	113.1	113.5
Oklahoma St.	110.6	111.3	110.2	110.7
Kansas St.	110.8	110.5	110.5	110.6
Texas	109.9	110.1	109.6	109.9
T C U	108.8	111.0	109.2	109.7
Texas Tech	105.8	106.2	105.1	105.7
West Virginia	101.6	101.4	101.0	101.3
Kansas	96.7	97.7	96.8	97.1
Big 12 Averages	109.4	109.8	109.1	109.5
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	139.8	138.9	140.7	139.8
Michigan	127.2	126.0	127.7	127.0
Penn St.	123.5	122.6	123.5	123.2
Indiana	110.1	109.1	109.9	109.7
Michigan St.	108.9	108.1	108.2	108.4
Maryland	93.3	92.3	91.5	92.4
Rutgers	84.5	84.0	83.0	83.8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	120.7	120.4	120.6	120.6
Minnesota	119.0	118.7	118.5	118.7
Iowa	118.6	117.1	118.4	118.0
Nebraska	106.1	106.3	105.2	105.9
Illinois	104.6	105.4	104.5	104.8
Purdue	103.9	103.7	103.3	103.6
Northwestern	101.5	100.5	99.9	100.7
Big Ten Averages	111.6	110.9	111.1	111.2
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Florida Atlantic	97.9	97.9	98.9	98.2
Western Kentucky	95.4	96.2	96.9	96.2
Marshall	92.2	92.0	93.0	92.4
Florida Int’l.	88.9	88.7	88.8	88.8
Middle Tennessee	88.8	88.2	88.8	88.6
Charlotte	87.7	88.0	88.2	88.0
Old Dominion	73.7	73.8	73.6	73.7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana Tech	94.1	94.3	94.1	94.1
Southern Miss.	94.3	93.2	94.6	94.0
U A B	88.8	90.8	89.5	89.7
North Texas	86.6	86.2	86.6	86.5
Rice	82.3	83.3	82.0	82.5
Texas-San Antonio	75.9	77.7	76.1	76.5
U T E P	68.6	72.2	69.0	69.9
CUSA Averages	86.8	87.3	87.2	87.1
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	120.3	119.3	120.4	120.0
BYU	102.6	102.8	102.3	102.6
Army	95.5	95.7	95.0	95.4
Liberty	89.3	90.4	89.4	89.7
New Mexico St.	75.8	77.7	75.6	76.3
Massachusetts	56.7	58.2	55.7	56.9
Indep. Averages	90.0	90.7	89.7	90.1
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio	95.9	95.1	96.4	95.8
Buffalo	93.7	94.3	95.1	94.3
Miami (Ohio)	91.2	90.2	91.5	91.0
Kent St.	88.0	88.0	88.6	88.2
Bowling Green	69.2	68.6	68.9	68.9
Akron	66.8	66.5	65.7	66.3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Michigan	98.5	97.6	98.2	98.1
Ball St.	90.1	89.7	90.1	90.0
Central Michigan	89.2	89.9	90.2	89.7
Eastern Michigan	88.8	89.1	89.4	89.1
Toledo	86.7	86.7	87.0	86.8
Northern Illinois	86.6	85.9	86.7	86.4
MAC Averages	87.1	86.8	87.3	87.1
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	108.5	108.7	108.8	108.7
Air Force	104.1	105.8	105.0	105.0
Wyoming	98.8	100.6	99.2	99.5
Utah St.	96.9	96.4	97.5	96.9
Colorado St.	87.4	90.7	87.9	88.7
New Mexico	79.6	81.8	78.2	79.9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	97.1	98.7	96.9	97.6
Hawaii	95.6	97.0	94.8	95.8
Fresno St.	92.6	93.6	92.6	92.9
Nevada	90.4	92.0	89.9	90.8
San Jose St.	87.7	89.5	87.7	88.3
U N L V	83.1	84.7	82.7	83.5
MWC Averages	93.5	95.0	93.4	94.0
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oregon	119.7	119.6	120.7	120.0
Washington	112.0	111.6	112.7	112.1
Washington St.	111.4	110.7	111.6	111.2
California	103.4	103.1	103.8	103.4
Oregon St.	101.0	101.9	101.0	101.3
Stanford	101.8	100.9	101.1	101.3
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Utah	126.8	125.9	127.5	126.7
U S C	111.0	111.6	111.8	111.5
Arizona St.	108.0	107.5	108.5	108.0
U C L A	99.0	98.7	98.6	98.8
Colorado	98.6	98.5	98.7	98.6
Arizona	96.9	96.6	96.4	96.6
Pac-12 Averages	107.5	107.2	107.7	107.5
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	127.2	125.4	127.3	126.6
Florida	125.9	123.3	125.7	124.9
Tennessee	110.7	110.4	110.1	110.4
Kentucky	110.0	108.7	108.9	109.2
Missouri	110.2	107.7	109.0	109.0
South Carolina	109.5	107.7	108.5	108.6
Vanderbilt	92.8	91.2	91.2	91.7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
L S U	131.3	129.1	131.3	130.6
Alabama	129.1	126.0	129.6	128.2
Auburn	122.6	120.8	122.2	121.9
Texas A&M	118.3	116.9	117.7	117.7
Mississippi St.	109.9	106.6	113.7	110.1
Ole Miss	107.7	106.9	107.7	107.4
Arkansas	87.7	87.6	86.8	87.4
SEC Averages	113.8	112.0	113.5	113.1
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	107.5	106.8	106.8	107.0
Georgia Southern	96.7	96.6	96.2	96.5
Georgia St.	90.9	91.9	90.2	91.0
Troy	91.2	91.6	89.8	90.9
Coastal Carolina	87.3	88.4	87.0	87.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana	103.8	104.2	103.5	103.8
Arkansas St.	91.7	92.1	91.6	91.8
Louisiana-Monroe	85.8	86.4	85.3	85.9
Texas St.	78.8	79.3	78.2	78.8
South Alabama	75.3	77.8	75.1	76.1
SBC Averages	90.9	91.5	90.4	90.9

 

Conference Power Ratings
#	League	Average
1	Southeastern	113.1
2	Big Ten	111.2
3	Big 12	109.5
4	Pac-12	107.5
5	Atlantic Coast	104.7
6	American	97.4
7	Mountain West	94.0
8	Sun Belt	90.9
9	Independents	90.1
10	Conf. USA	87.1
11	Mid-American	87.1

 

 

PiRate Guess at Top 6
1	Ohio St.
2	LSU
3	Clemson
4	Georgia
5	Utah
6	Alabama

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1	Memphis
2	Cincinnati
3	Boise St.
4	Appalachian St.
5	Navy

 

The Conference Races

With one week to go before conference championship week, there are still some conference division races yet to be clinched. Here at PiRate Central, we will make it easy for you.

American Athletic Conference

Cincinnati has clinched the East Division, no matter what they do at Memphis.

Memphis clinches the West Division, if they beat Cincinnati, or Navy loses to Houston.

The winner of this week’s Cincinnati – Memphis game will host the AAC Championship Game.

Atlantic Coast

Clemson has clinched the Atlantic Division.

The winner of this week’s Virginia – Virginia Tech game wins the Coastal Division. 

If Clemson beats Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship Game, Virginia Tech has about a 95% chance of getting the Orange Bowl bid.

If Clemson beats Virginia in the ACC Championship Game, Virginia has about an 80% chance of getting the Orange Bowl bid.

Should Clemson be upset in the ACC Championship Game, either Virginia or Virginia Tech would get the Orange Bowl bid, and Clemson would likely knock out a team from the Southwest or West for the Cotton Bowl bid.

Big 12

Oklahoma and Baylor have already clinched the top two spots and will play in the Big 12 Championship Game.

If Baylor beats Kansas, and Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, then BU will be the top seed. Under any other scenario, Oklahoma will be the top seed.

If Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State and Baylor, the Sooners have a 30% chance of making it to the Playoffs, and at worst would be the Sugar Bowl representative for the league.

If Baylor beats Kansas and Oklahoma, there is only a 5% chance that BU would make the playoffs.

If the loser of the Big 12 Championship Game has two losses, that team has a 70% chance to earn the Cotton Bowl bid.

Big Ten

Ohio State has already clinched the East Division title even if Michigan upsets them in the Big House like they did in the big upset 50 years ago.

The winner of the Minnesota-Wisconsin game wins the West Division and has a better than 50-50 chance to earn the Rose Bowl bid if they lose to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game.

If Minnesota beats a 12-0 Ohio State team in the Big Ten Championship, the Gophers have a 30% chance to earn a Playoff bid.

Conference USA

This is the most difficult tie-breaker with one week to go, as both divisions are still up for grabs.

In the East, Florida Atlantic has a one-game lead over Marshall and Western Kentucky, but WKU has been eliminated from the race.

If FAU beats Southern Miss, or Marshall loses to Florida International, then FAU wins the division and hosts the CUSA Championship Game.

If FAU loses to Southern Miss, and Marshall beats FIU, then Marshall wins the East and has a chance to host the CUSA Championship Game.

In the West, there is currently a three-way tie with multiple possible outcomes.
Southern Miss plays Florida Atlantic in the key game. Louisiana Tech plays UTSA, and UAB plays North Texas.

If all three West co-leaders win or they all lose, Southern Miss will win the tiebreaker.

If Southern Miss loses and UAB wins, then UAB wins the West.

If Louisiana Tech wins and Southern Miss loses, then Louisiana Tech wins the division even if Southern Miss beats FAU.

If Southern Miss beats FAU and Louisiana Tech loses to UTSA, then Southern Miss wins the West even if UAB beats North Texas.

All five teams still alive can host the CUSA Championship Game based on a myriad of tiebreakers between multiple teams with 6-2 league records.

Independents (Not Including Notre Dame)

BYU has clinched the Hawaii Bowl Bid.

Liberty is bowl eligible

 

Mid-American

Miami of Ohio has already clinched the East Division.

Western Michigan will clinch the West Division with a win over Northern Illinois OR a loss by Central Michigan to Toledo.

Central Michigan will clinch the West Division with a win over Toledo AND a loss by Western Michigan.

Mountain West

Boise State has already clinched the Mountain Division Championship and has clinched the home field for the Championship Game.

Hawaii has already clinched the West Division Championship and will play at Boise State in the Championship Game.

Boise State still has a chance to make the Cotton Bowl by winning out, while the AAC champion has two overall losses.

Pac-12

Even after a disappointing upset loss to Arizona State, Oregon has already clinched the North Division Championship and still has a chance to go to the Rose Bowl with a slight chance to go to the Cotton Bowl.

Utah will win the South by beating a Colorado team that will be playing for bowl eligibility when the Buffs visit Salt Lake City. Should Utah lose this game, USC will win the South Division Championship.

Utah still has a less than 50-50 chance to make the Playoffs by beating Colorado and Oregon, but the Utes are most likely looking at a Rose Bowl bid. Should they lose to Oregon, Utah still has a 50-50 shot at the Cotton Bowl.

Southeastern

The SEC Championship Game is set between LSU and Georgia. See the feature below on sleuthing the SEC Bowl Tie-Ins and all the open spots.

Sun Belt

Appalachian State will play Louisiana in the Sun Belt Championship Game.

If both teams win this week or both teams lose, Appy State will be the host team based on their regular season win over the Ragin’ Cajuns. UL can only host if Appy State loses to Troy, while Louisiana beats UL-Monroe.

Appalachian State still has a minute chance to earn the Cotton Bowl bid. The Mountaineers must win out; Boise State must lose to Hawaii; and the AAC Champion must have two losses.

————————————–

The SEC Bowl Issue

With the possibility that two SEC teams will make the Playoffs, and then two more will earn New Year’s Six Bowl Games (Sugar and Orange), there is a chance that as many as five SEC tie-in bowls will not have bowl eligible SEC teams and will have to look elsewhere for at-large teams.

Two issues will affect the final week of the regular season. Currently, there are just eight bowl eligible teams–Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, and Kentucky in the East and LSU, Alabama, Auburn, and Texas A&M in the West.

Mississippi State and Missouri can become bowl eligible with wins this week. Missouri has a much easier final regular season game against 0-7 Arkansas, while Mississippi State must beat rival Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl. Missouri can also be eliminated if the NCAA rules negatively on an appeal between tomorrow and December 8.

The PiRates are old buckaroos, so we know that politics play a part in decisions. The SEC has no doubt twisted the NCAA’s arm to not decide on Missouri’s appeal until after the bowls have been played. The SEC needs as many bowl eligible teams as possible.

We wouldn’t be totally surprised if all the close calls in the Egg Bowl go in favor of Mississippi State. If the game is called without any bias, we actually believe Ole Miss is playing better football at this point of the season.

Being that the law of averages tends to side on the side of a split with two 5-6 teams playing to get to 6-6, we will say that one team makes it. For argument purposes, we will award Missouri the 6-6 record and Ole Miss the Egg Bowl Trophy.

At this point, there would be nine SEC Bowl Eligible teams.

Let’s say that LSU wins out and takes one Playoff spot, while Alabama beats Auburn and gets Playoff spot number two–once again politics playing a large part as the Committee can always come up with a reason to include a one-loss Tide team even if the entire first team is out with injuries.

Now, let’s slot Georgia into the Sugar Bowl and Florida into the Orange Bowl. That’s four teams with just five bowl eligible teams left.

The Citrus Bowl gets the next best team, and Auburn would be the logical choice here.

The Independence and Birmingham Bowls can already start looking for at-large teams at this point, as they are the bottom two in the contractual agreement.

That leaves the Outback, Gator, Texas, Belk, Music City, and Liberty Bowls hoping to get Tennessee, Kentucky, Missouri, and Texas A&M. Six bowls and four teams mean that two will be left at the conference altar.

The Outback and Gator Bowls are New Year’s Day Bowls. The SEC isn’t about to allow a 7-5 or 6-6 at-large team from 1,000-2,000 miles away take one of these prized spots. Put Tennessee in the Outback and Kentucky in the Gator.

With Texas A&M still available, it is obvious which bowl would be best for all. The Aggies would head to Houston to play in the Texas Bowl, which sort of has a gentleman’s agreement to get a better draw this year after taking Vanderbilt last year. A Texas A&M-Texas game could be arranged for the Texas Bowl, and it would be a sellout with tickets getting scalped.

That leaves Missouri as the last bowl team. Missouri played in the Liberty Bowl last year, so they would not return to Memphis. The Tigers already played in Nashville against Vanderbilt, and even though Nashville is the hottest destination in the South if not the entire nation, I don’t see the Music City Bowl getting an opportunity to invite the Tigers for their second trip of the season. Put Missouri in the Belk Bowl.

This would leave the Music City and Liberty Bowls out in the cold as the two bowls that would have to find at-large opponents. There will be extra Mountain West, Conference USA, and Mid-American teams that are bowl eligible. The ACC could send Virginia, Wake Forest, or Louisville to Nashville, while the Big 12 could send Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas, or TCU to the Liberty Bowl. We believe that Kansas State or Iowa State is the most likely team to go to Memphis.

If the Mountain West has extra teams, there is a chance that the league would arrange for one of their better teams to come Southeast to one of the two Volunteer State bowls. Air Force, San Diego State, or Utah State might be where the Liberty Bowl can look.

The Music City Bowl will then likely need a Mid-American Conference team, and likewise, a deal could be struck with the MAC to send a 6-6 team to a regular contracted bowl, while bringing the MAC Champion to Nashville. The organizers of the Music City Bowl would probably like to pay Tom Brady to suit up for Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl.

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Note:  This Section Has Been Edited Late Sunday Night.  It was brought to our attention that the Hawaii Bowl slightly changes their tie-ins.  We originally had this bowl featuring BYU if they were bowl eligible or a Mountain West team or basically a Bowl Eligible Hawaii team versus a team from the American Athletic Conference.  The bowl changed to BYU if bowl eligible versus either an AAC or Mountain West team, but if Hawaii is bowl eligible and not the MWC Champion, then Hawaii gets this bid.

Thus, it started a chain reaction where we had to move about 20 teams from one bowl to another.  Here is the latest version of our Bowl Projections.

 

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Buffalo	Charlotte
Frisco	AAC	At-large	SMU	[UAB]
Cure	AAC	SBC	Navy	Georgia St.
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	Southern Miss.	San Diego St.
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Central Florida	Miami (O)
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Western Michigan	Arkansas St.
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Pac-12	Boise St.	Washington St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	Louisiana Tech	Appalachian St.
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Cincinnati	Florida Atlantic
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC/MWC	BYU	Hawaii
Independence	ACC	SEC	Florida St.	[Marshall]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Miami (Fla.)	Michigan St.
Military	ACC	AAC	North Carolina	Temple
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	Illinois
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Texas A&M
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	Washington	Michigan
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	Kansas St.	[Nevada]
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Notre Dame	Oklahoma St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Memphis	Utah
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	Western Ky.	TCU
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	Arizona St.	Iowa
Music City	SEC	ACC	[Central Michigan]	Louisville
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Virginia Tech	Florida
Belk	ACC	SEC	Wake Forest	Missouri
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Virginia	California
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Iowa St.	[Liberty]
Arizona	SBC	MWC	Louisiana	Air Force
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Baylor	USC
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Auburn	Wisconsin
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	Tennessee
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Minnesota	Oregon
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	Georgia
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulane	[Florida Int’l.]
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	Kentucky	Indiana
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Toledo	Wyoming
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	Nebraska	Utah St.
Mobile Alabama	MAC	SBC	Eastern Michigan	Georgia Southern
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	Georgia	Ohio St.
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	Clemson	LSU
Championship	Fiesta	Peach	Georgia	Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate College Football Ratings: November 10, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday	November 12
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Ohio	Western Mich.	-2.6	-2.6	-2.0
Akron	Eastern Mich.	-14.9	-15.1	-16.4
Wednesday	November 13
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Miami (O)	Bowling Green	17.8	16.7	18.3
Toledo	Northern Illinois	1.1	2.3	1.8
Thursday	November 14
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Kent St.	Buffalo	-3.2	-4.0	-4.4
Pittsburgh	North Carolina	3.3	3.2	2.9
Friday	November 15
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Marshall	Louisiana Tech	-3.0	-3.9	-2.8
San Diego St.	Fresno St.	4.7	5.3	3.9
Saturday	November 16
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Rutgers	Ohio St.	-53.2	-52.7	-55.8
Auburn	Georgia	-1.2	-1.2	-1.7
Utah	UCLA	24.9	24.0	26.0
Nebraska	Wisconsin	-14.0	-13.1	-14.7
Michigan	Michigan St.	14.5	14.1	15.5
Iowa	Minnesota	2.9	1.1	2.9
Oklahoma St.	Kansas	17.6	17.1	17.3
California	USC	-0.6	-1.3	-0.5
Washington St.	Stanford	10.3	10.2	11.1
Oregon St.	Arizona St.	-3.9	-2.1	-4.5
Northwestern	Massachusetts	48.4	45.6	48.4
Mississippi St.	Alabama	-20.2	-20.3	-16.8
Penn St.	Indiana	15.8	15.7	16.1
Missouri	Florida	-11.4	-11.2	-11.7
Texas Tech	TCU	1.3	-1.0	0.3
Temple	Tulane	1.7	0.3	2.0
UAB	UTEP	22.0	19.9	21.8
Notre Dame	Navy	23.0	19.0	21.8
Arkansas St.	Coastal Carolina	7.2	6.2	7.4
Georgia Southern	UL-Monroe	14.1	13.4	14.0
Texas St.	Troy	-7.2	-7.3	-7.0
Clemson	Wake Forest	34.5	33.0	35.4
Kansas St.	West Virginia	15.1	15.4	15.9
Houston	Memphis	-5.9	-5.1	-4.6
Ball St.	Central Mich.	4.8	3.7	4.1
Iowa St.	Texas	8.3	8.5	8.8
Georgia Tech	Virginia Tech	-6.3	-7.8	-6.6
Vanderbilt	Kentucky	-12.3	-12.4	-12.4
Duke	Syracuse	7.7	7.8	8.1
UNLV	Hawaii	-7.5	-7.2	-6.8
Utah St.	Wyoming	2.8	-0.1	2.8
Middle Tennessee	Rice	12.8	11.1	13.6
South Alabama	Louisiana	-24.3	-22.1	-25.2
UTSA	Southern Miss.	-18.5	-15.2	-19.0
Ole Miss	LSU	-21.7	-20.1	-21.7
South Florida	Cincinnati	-13.2	-11.8	-13.4
Colorado St.	Air Force	-15.1	-12.8	-15.3
Baylor	Oklahoma	-6.3	-5.4	-6.4
Texas A&M	South Carolina	8.9	9.0	8.6
North Carolina St.	Louisville	0.5	0.1	0.4
Georgia St.	Appalachian St.	-11.6	-9.3	-11.3
Boise St.	New Mexico	28.6	26.2	29.9
Oregon	Arizona	27.5	27.9	29.2

 

FBS vs.	FCS	PiRate
Florida St.	Alabama St.	39
Army	VMI	31
BYU	Idaho St.	31
New Mexico St.	Incarnate Word	10

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Ohio St.	140.6	139.8	141.9	140.8
2	Clemson	135.9	133.8	137.0	135.6
3	Alabama	134.3	131.1	134.8	133.4
4	L S U	131.5	129.3	131.6	130.8
5	Georgia	127.1	125.3	127.3	126.6
6	Florida	125.3	122.6	124.9	124.2
7	Utah	124.0	122.9	124.8	123.9
8	Penn St.	123.6	122.7	123.7	123.4
9	Michigan	123.3	121.9	123.6	122.9
10	Auburn	122.8	121.1	122.6	122.2
11	Oklahoma	122.4	121.6	121.9	122.0
12	Oregon	121.5	121.6	122.8	122.0
13	Wisconsin	120.4	120.0	120.3	120.2
14	Minnesota	118.9	118.8	118.8	118.8
15	Iowa	118.8	117.0	118.7	118.1
16	Notre Dame	118.3	116.8	118.1	117.7
17	Iowa St.	115.6	116.2	116.0	115.9
18	Texas A&M	116.5	114.9	115.4	115.6
19	Washington	113.8	113.5	114.8	114.0
20	Baylor	113.2	113.2	112.5	113.0
21	Kansas St.	112.2	112.1	112.2	112.2
22	Central Florida	111.5	110.8	112.0	111.4
23	Mississippi St.	111.1	107.8	115.0	111.3
24	Indiana	110.9	109.9	110.6	110.5
25	Oklahoma St.	110.3	111.0	110.0	110.4
26	Texas	110.3	110.6	110.3	110.4
27	Washington St.	110.6	109.7	110.9	110.4
28	Missouri	110.9	108.4	110.2	109.8
29	Michigan St.	110.3	109.4	109.6	109.8
30	South Carolina	110.6	108.9	109.8	109.8
31	Tennessee	109.9	109.7	109.2	109.6
32	Miami (Fla.)	108.3	108.0	109.5	108.6
33	U S C	108.2	108.7	108.7	108.6
34	T C U	107.4	109.9	107.7	108.3
35	Kentucky	108.3	106.9	107.0	107.4
36	Cincinnati	107.3	106.8	107.7	107.3
37	Virginia	107.1	107.0	107.1	107.1
38	Ole Miss	106.8	106.1	106.9	106.6
39	Arizona St.	106.6	105.9	106.9	106.5
40	Memphis	106.2	106.2	107.0	106.5
41	Appalachian St.	106.6	105.6	106.0	106.1
42	Texas Tech	106.2	106.4	105.5	106.0
43	Pittsburgh	106.0	105.6	106.3	106.0
44	North Carolina	105.7	105.5	106.4	105.9
45	Boise St.	105.7	105.7	105.7	105.7
46	SMU	105.2	104.9	105.9	105.3
47	California	104.6	104.3	105.3	104.7
48	Air Force	104.0	105.3	104.8	104.7
49	Virginia Tech	104.4	104.5	105.1	104.7
50	Florida St.	104.4	104.4	104.6	104.5
51	Wake Forest	104.4	103.8	104.7	104.3
52	Illinois	103.8	104.7	103.6	104.1
53	Purdue	103.7	103.5	103.1	103.4
54	Nebraska	103.4	103.9	102.6	103.3
55	Duke	103.5	102.7	103.2	103.1
56	Stanford	103.3	102.5	102.8	102.9
57	BYU	102.6	102.8	102.6	102.7
58	Boston College	102.1	101.7	102.3	102.0
59	U C L A	102.0	101.9	101.8	101.9
60	Louisiana	101.3	101.6	101.4	101.4
61	Northwestern	102.1	101.0	100.7	101.3
62	Tulane	100.0	100.8	100.5	100.4
63	Wyoming	99.3	101.4	100.0	100.2
64	Oregon St.	99.8	100.8	99.5	100.0
65	West Virginia	100.1	99.7	99.3	99.7
66	Navy	98.2	100.8	99.2	99.4
67	Utah St.	99.2	98.4	99.8	99.1
68	Temple	98.6	98.1	99.6	98.8
69	Louisville	98.8	98.5	98.6	98.6
70	Syracuse	98.8	98.0	98.1	98.3
71	Florida Atlantic	97.8	97.8	99.2	98.3
72	Houston	97.3	98.2	99.4	98.3
73	Western Michigan	98.4	97.4	98.1	98.0
74	Louisiana Tech	97.1	97.5	97.6	97.4
75	San Diego St.	96.6	98.2	96.2	97.0
76	Arizona	97.0	96.8	96.5	96.8
77	Georgia Southern	96.9	96.7	96.4	96.7
78	Southern Miss.	96.7	95.3	97.1	96.4
79	Maryland	97.2	96.0	95.6	96.3
80	Kansas	95.8	96.8	95.7	96.1
81	Colorado	96.2	96.0	96.0	96.0
82	North Carolina St.	96.2	95.6	96.0	95.9
83	Fresno St.	94.9	95.9	95.3	95.4
84	Hawaii	94.9	96.2	93.8	95.0
85	Army	94.9	95.1	94.4	94.8
86	Georgia Tech	95.1	93.7	95.5	94.8
87	Tulsa	93.3	94.2	94.6	94.0
88	Buffalo	93.1	93.8	94.6	93.8
89	Vanderbilt	94.5	93.0	93.1	93.5
90	Western Kentucky	92.7	93.6	94.3	93.5
91	Ohio	93.3	92.3	93.6	93.1
92	Georgia St.	92.5	93.8	92.2	92.8
93	South Florida	91.1	92.0	91.3	91.5
94	Troy	91.6	92.1	90.5	91.4
95	Arkansas St.	91.3	91.6	91.2	91.4
96	Marshall	91.0	90.6	91.8	91.1
97	Liberty	90.1	91.2	90.4	90.5
98	Ball St.	90.6	90.2	90.8	90.5
99	Miami (Ohio)	90.1	88.9	90.7	89.9
100	Middle Tennessee	90.0	89.2	90.1	89.8
101	Northern Illinois	89.7	88.9	89.8	89.5
102	Central Michigan	88.4	89.0	89.3	88.9
103	Colorado St.	87.4	91.0	88.0	88.8
104	Toledo	88.4	88.7	89.1	88.7
105	San Jose St.	88.0	89.9	88.2	88.7
106	U A B	87.7	89.5	88.1	88.5
107	Nevada	87.8	89.4	87.3	88.2
108	North Texas	87.8	87.4	88.1	87.8
109	Coastal Carolina	87.2	88.4	86.8	87.5
110	Kent St.	87.4	87.2	87.7	87.4
111	Arkansas	87.1	87.0	86.3	86.8
112	Charlotte	85.8	86.2	86.2	86.1
113	Louisiana-Monroe	85.8	86.4	85.4	85.9
114	Florida Int’l.	85.5	85.2	85.2	85.3
115	Eastern Michigan	84.4	84.5	84.7	84.6
116	East Carolina	83.6	85.0	84.0	84.2
117	Rutgers	84.4	84.1	83.2	83.9
118	U N L V	83.4	85.0	83.0	83.8
119	Texas St.	81.8	82.3	81.0	81.7
120	New Mexico	80.1	82.5	78.8	80.5
121	Rice	79.7	80.6	78.9	79.8
122	Texas-San Antonio	75.7	77.7	75.6	76.3
123	New Mexico St.	75.7	77.5	75.5	76.2
124	South Alabama	74.5	77.0	73.7	75.1
125	Bowling Green	74.3	74.1	74.3	74.3
126	Old Dominion	73.7	74.0	73.8	73.8
127	Connecticut	70.9	73.7	69.9	71.5
128	U T E P	68.8	72.7	69.4	70.3
129	Akron	67.1	66.9	65.8	66.6
130	Massachusetts	56.3	57.9	54.8	56.3

 

Conference Power Ratings
#	League	Average
1	SEC	113.4
2	BTen	111.2
3	B12	109.4
4	P12	107.3
5	ACC	105.0
6	AAC	97.4
7	MWC	93.9
8	SUN	91.0
9	Ind	89.7
10	MAC	87.1
11	CUSA	86.7

 

Our Guess at Top 6
1	LSU
2	Ohio St.
3	Clemson
4	Alabama
5	Georgia
6	Oregon

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1	Cincinnati
2	Memphis
3	Boise St.
4	Navy
5	SMU

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	111.5	110.8	112.0	111.4	4-2	7-3
Cincinnati	107.3	106.8	107.7	107.3	5-0	8-1
Temple	98.6	98.1	99.6	98.8	3-2	6-3
South Florida	91.1	92.0	91.3	91.5	2-3	4-5
East Carolina	83.6	85.0	84.0	84.2	0-6	3-7
Connecticut	70.9	73.7	69.9	71.5	0-6	2-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	106.2	106.2	107.0	106.5	4-1	8-1
SMU	105.2	104.9	105.9	105.3	5-1	9-1
Tulane	100.0	100.8	100.5	100.4	3-2	6-3
Navy	98.2	100.8	99.2	99.4	5-1	7-1
Houston	97.3	98.2	99.4	98.3	1-4	3-6
Tulsa	93.3	94.2	94.6	94.0	1-5	3-7
AAC Averages	96.9	97.6	97.6	97.4
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	135.9	133.8	137.0	135.6	7-0	10-0
Florida St.	104.4	104.4	104.6	104.5	4-4	5-5
Wake Forest	104.4	103.8	104.7	104.3	3-2	7-2
Boston College	102.1	101.7	102.3	102.0	3-4	5-5
Louisville	98.8	98.5	98.6	98.6	3-3	5-4
Syracuse	98.8	98.0	98.1	98.3	0-5	3-6
North Carolina St.	96.2	95.6	96.0	95.9	1-4	4-5
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami (Fla.)	108.3	108.0	109.5	108.6	4-3	6-4
Virginia	107.1	107.0	107.1	107.1	5-2	7-3
Pittsburgh	106.0	105.6	106.3	106.0	3-2	6-3
North Carolina	105.7	105.5	106.4	105.9	3-3	4-5
Virginia Tech	104.4	104.5	105.1	104.7	4-2	6-3
Duke	103.5	102.7	103.2	103.1	2-4	4-5
Georgia Tech	95.1	93.7	95.5	94.8	1-5	2-7
ACC Averages	105.1	104.5	105.3	105.0
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	122.4	121.6	121.9	122.0	5-1	8-1
Iowa St.	115.6	116.2	116.0	115.9	3-3	5-4
Baylor	113.2	113.2	112.5	113.0	6-0	9-0
Kansas St.	112.2	112.1	112.2	112.2	3-3	6-3
Oklahoma St.	110.3	111.0	110.0	110.4	3-3	6-3
Texas	110.3	110.6	110.3	110.4	4-2	6-3
T C U	107.4	109.9	107.7	108.3	2-4	4-5
Texas Tech	106.2	106.4	105.5	106.0	2-4	4-5
West Virginia	100.1	99.7	99.3	99.7	1-5	3-6
Kansas	95.8	96.8	95.7	96.1	1-5	3-6
Big 12 Averages	109.3	109.7	109.1	109.4
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	140.6	139.8	141.9	140.8	6-0	9-0
Penn St.	123.6	122.7	123.7	123.4	5-1	8-1
Michigan	123.3	121.9	123.6	122.9	4-2	7-2
Indiana	110.9	109.9	110.6	110.5	4-2	7-2
Michigan St.	110.3	109.4	109.6	109.8	2-4	4-5
Maryland	97.2	96.0	95.6	96.3	1-6	3-7
Rutgers	84.4	84.1	83.2	83.9	0-6	2-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	120.4	120.0	120.3	120.2	4-2	7-2
Minnesota	118.9	118.8	118.8	118.8	6-0	9-0
Iowa	118.8	117.0	118.7	118.1	3-3	6-3
Illinois	103.8	104.7	103.6	104.1	4-3	6-4
Purdue	103.7	103.5	103.1	103.4	3-4	4-6
Nebraska	103.4	103.9	102.6	103.3	2-4	4-5
Northwestern	102.1	101.0	100.7	101.3	0-7	1-8
Big Ten Averages	111.5	110.9	111.1	111.2
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	97.8	97.8	99.2	98.3	5-1	7-3
Western Kentucky	92.7	93.6	94.3	93.5	4-2	6-4
Marshall	91.0	90.6	91.8	91.1	4-1	6-3
Middle Tennessee	90.0	89.2	90.1	89.8	2-3	3-6
Charlotte	85.8	86.2	86.2	86.1	3-3	5-5
Florida Int’l.	85.5	85.2	85.2	85.3	3-4	5-5
Old Dominion	73.7	74.0	73.8	73.8	0-6	1-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Louisiana Tech	97.1	97.5	97.6	97.4	5-0	8-1
Southern Miss.	96.7	95.3	97.1	96.4	4-1	6-3
U A B	87.7	89.5	88.1	88.5	3-2	6-3
North Texas	87.8	87.4	88.1	87.8	3-3	4-6
Rice	79.7	80.6	78.9	79.8	0-5	0-9
Texas-San Antonio	75.7	77.7	75.6	76.3	3-2	4-5
U T E P	68.8	72.7	69.4	70.3	0-6	1-8
CUSA Averages	86.4	87.0	86.8	86.7
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	118.3	116.8	118.1	117.7	x	7-2
BYU	102.6	102.8	102.6	102.7	x	5-4
Army	94.9	95.1	94.4	94.8	x	4-6
Liberty	90.1	91.2	90.4	90.5	x	6-4
New Mexico St.	75.7	77.5	75.5	76.2	x	0-9
Massachusetts	56.3	57.9	54.8	56.3	x	1-9
Indep. Averages	89.6	90.2	89.3	89.7
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Buffalo	93.1	93.8	94.6	93.8	3-2	5-4
Ohio	93.3	92.3	93.6	93.1	3-2	4-5
Miami (Ohio)	90.1	88.9	90.7	89.9	4-1	5-4
Kent St.	87.4	87.2	87.7	87.4	2-3	3-6
Bowling Green	74.3	74.1	74.3	74.3	2-3	3-6
Akron	67.1	66.9	65.8	66.6	0-5	0-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Western Michigan	98.4	97.4	98.1	98.0	4-2	6-4
Ball St.	90.6	90.2	90.8	90.5	3-2	4-5
Northern Illinois	89.7	88.9	89.8	89.5	2-3	3-6
Central Michigan	88.4	89.0	89.3	88.9	4-2	6-4
Toledo	88.4	88.7	89.1	88.7	3-2	6-3
Eastern Michigan	84.4	84.5	84.7	84.6	1-4	4-5
MAC Averages	87.1	86.8	87.4	87.1
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	105.7	105.7	105.7	105.7	5-0	8-1
Air Force	104.0	105.3	104.8	104.7	4-1	7-2
Wyoming	99.3	101.4	100.0	100.2	3-2	6-3
Utah St.	99.2	98.4	99.8	99.1	4-1	5-4
Colorado St.	87.4	91.0	88.0	88.8	3-2	4-5
New Mexico	80.1	82.5	78.8	80.5	0-5	2-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
San Diego St.	96.6	98.2	96.2	97.0	4-2	7-2
Fresno St.	94.9	95.9	95.3	95.4	2-3	4-5
Hawaii	94.9	96.2	93.8	95.0	3-3	6-4
San Jose St.	88.0	89.9	88.2	88.7	1-5	4-6
Nevada	87.8	89.4	87.3	88.2	3-3	6-4
U N L V	83.4	85.0	83.0	83.8	1-5	2-7
MWC Averages	93.4	94.9	93.4	93.9
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Oregon	121.5	121.6	122.8	122.0	6-0	8-1
Washington	113.8	113.5	114.8	114.0	3-4	6-4
Washington St.	110.6	109.7	110.9	110.4	1-5	4-5
California	104.6	104.3	105.3	104.7	2-4	5-4
Stanford	103.3	102.5	102.8	102.9	3-4	4-5
Oregon St.	99.8	100.8	99.5	100.0	3-3	4-5
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	124.0	122.9	124.8	123.9	5-1	8-1
U S C	108.2	108.7	108.7	108.6	5-2	6-4
Arizona St.	106.6	105.9	106.9	106.5	2-4	5-4
U C L A	102.0	101.9	101.8	101.9	4-2	4-5
Arizona	97.0	96.8	96.5	96.8	2-4	4-5
Colorado	96.2	96.0	96.0	96.0	2-5	4-6
Pac-12 Averages	107.3	107.1	107.6	107.3
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	127.1	125.3	127.3	126.6	5-1	8-1
Florida	125.3	122.6	124.9	124.2	6-2	8-2
Missouri	110.9	108.4	110.2	109.8	2-3	5-4
South Carolina	110.6	108.9	109.8	109.8	3-4	4-6
Tennessee	109.9	109.7	109.2	109.6	3-3	5-5
Kentucky	108.3	106.9	107.0	107.4	2-5	4-5
Vanderbilt	94.5	93.0	93.1	93.5	1-5	2-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	134.3	131.1	134.8	133.4	5-1	8-1
L S U	131.5	129.3	131.6	130.8	5-0	9-0
Auburn	122.8	121.1	122.6	122.2	4-2	7-2
Texas A&M	116.5	114.9	115.4	115.6	3-2	6-3
Mississippi St.	111.1	107.8	115.0	111.3	2-4	4-5
Ole Miss	106.8	106.1	106.9	106.6	2-4	4-6
Arkansas	87.1	87.0	86.3	86.8	0-6	2-8
SEC Averages	114.1	112.3	113.9	113.4
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	106.6	105.6	106.0	106.1	4-1	8-1
Georgia Southern	96.9	96.7	96.4	96.7	3-2	5-4
Georgia St.	92.5	93.8	92.2	92.8	3-2	6-3
Troy	91.6	92.1	90.5	91.4	2-3	4-5
Coastal Carolina	87.2	88.4	86.8	87.5	1-4	4-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	101.3	101.6	101.4	101.4	4-1	7-2
Arkansas St.	91.3	91.6	91.2	91.4	3-2	5-4
Louisiana-Monroe	85.8	86.4	85.4	85.9	3-2	4-5
Texas St.	81.8	82.3	81.0	81.7	2-3	3-6
South Alabama	74.5	77.0	73.7	75.1	0-5	1-8
SBC Averages	91.0	91.6	90.5	91.0

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

 

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Miami (O)	Florida Atlantic
Frisco	AAC	At-large	SMU	[Air Force]
Cure	AAC	SBC	Memphis	Georgia Southern
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	Southern Miss.	Wyoming
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Cincinnati	Western Michigan
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Buffalo	Georgia St.
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Pac-12	Hawaii	[Toledo]
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	Louisiana Tech	Louisiana
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Navy	Western Kentucky
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC	BYU	Central Florida
Independence	ACC	SEC	Florida St.	[UAB]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	North Carolina	Michigan St.
Military	ACC	AAC	Virginia	Temple
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	Illinois
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Texas A&M
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	Washington	Michigan
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas Tech	[San Jose St.]
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Notre Dame	Kansas St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Baylor	Boise St.
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	Marshall	[Eastern Michigan]
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	Washington St.	Iowa
Music City	SEC	ACC	[Liberty]	Louisville
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Virginia Tech	Georgia
Belk	ACC	SEC	Wake Forest	Missouri *
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Miami (Fla.)	Arizona St.
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Iowa St.	Kentucky
Arizona	SBC	MWC	Appalachian St.	San Diego St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma St.	USC
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Florida	Wisconsin
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	Auburn
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Minnesota	Utah
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	Alabama
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulane	[Charlotte]
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	Tennessee	Indiana
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Ball St.	Utah St.
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	Nebraska	[Nevada]
Mobile Alabama	MAC	SBC	Central Michigan	Arkansas St.
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	LSU	Clemson
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	Ohio St.	Oregon
Championship	Fiesta	Peach	Clemson	Ohio St.
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections * Missouri is on probation and technically not eligible for a bowl, but the Tigers have filed an appeal that has yet to be judged by the NCAA Infractions Committee.  If they do not issue a decision before December, then Missouri can accept a bowl bid even though they have a bowl ban in place.

 

Questions and Answers

 

Every year, we receive numerous questions from you the reader.  When we get enough, we try to answer them in one post.  The number one question we receive from people that know us is: “How do you ask a question on your site?”

So we can reduce Spam and not give a link, this is how you do it.  Go to our sister site that you can see to the side on our Blogroll under “The PiRate Ratings, ” which is the 6th one down the page.  This will take you to our sister website.  Once at this other website, click on the Contact Us link, and you can ask your question after you fill out your information.

Here are the questions we have received since the start of football season.  Some of these have been asked every year for the last five or six seasons.

 

Q1. What does PiRate, Mean, and Bias mean in your ratings?

A1. We have one basic power rating that we compile based on game statistics and strength of schedule.  We have three ways of calculating this data.  The PiRate Rating is our old formula that we have used for many years with little change in calculation.  We can also estimate FCS team power ratings with this formula.  The Mean formula takes all the data and weighs each item identically.  There are seven basic grade scores that are then divided by seven to get this rating.  The Bias formula does apply weighted grades to the parts of the game that we believe are more important than others, thus the grading is biased in favor of four of the seven grading scores.

Q2. What is your home field advantage for football?

A2. The PiRate Ratings use differing home field advantages for every game.  If Miami of Florida is hosting Florida International, the home field advantage is going to be much different than if they were to host Hawaii, Buffalo, or Washington.  Some of the time, a road team might actually receive some advantage over the home team.  Let’s say a 2-7 team with little fan support is hosting a team from an adjacent state in a conference game, when the other team is trying to get bowl eligible, and there are fans of this other team just 45 minutes away from the visiting team’s stadium.  Let’s say that about 75% of the fans at the game will be fans of the visiting team, and the home team will have to use visual signals to snap the ball.  It happens.

Q3. How come you have a 5-2 team rated ahead of a 7-0 team in the same conference, and the 5-2 team lost to the 7-0 team in September?

A3. The PiRate Ratings aren’t about what happened three, four, five, or six weeks ago.  The goal of these ratings is to try to predict the outcomes of this week’s games.  For instance, you might notice that Alabama is still rated ahead of LSU in our ratings.  We believe if the two teams were to play again this week on a neutral field, Alabama would win the game.  It might be a lot easier to see this like baseball.  The Padres might beat the Dodgers on Thursday and Friday, but the Dodgers will still be favored to beat them on Saturday and Sunday.  These ratings are meant to be used to predict the future and not rate the past. 

Q4. Why do you like Ohio State so much and always move them up to number one every year?

A4. These are mechanical power ratings.  We could teach somebody else how to calculate the ratings with maybe 3 to 4 hours of teaching.  There is no real human factor where we can say that Ohio State is our favorite team, so let’s make them number one.  Ohio State is number one because the statistical numbers make them number one.  We like Ohio State no more or less than Illinois or Michigan or Rice or San Jose St.  What we love is to be accurate.  Thus, the real thing we root to be number one is our ratings.

Q5. What does your power rating number mean for each team?

A5. Our ratings are calculated so that the average FBS team is rated 100.00.  If a team has a power rating of 106.8, this means they are 6.8 points better than the average FBS team.  If they have a rating of 87.4, this means they are 12.6 points weaker than the average team.

Q6.  Why do you only issue one spread for FBS vs. FCS games?

A6. The Mean and Bias ratings require more statistical analysis using a lot more data than the regular PiRate Rating.  We cannot calculate these ratings for FCS teams.  The regular PiRate Rating consists of data calculation that takes about 3 minutes per FCS team.  And, the PiRate Rating for FCS teams is only an approximation rating.  We do not use the same adjustment to  the ratings of FBS teams that play FCS teams. 

Q7. I noticed that Nebraska did not play this weekend, yet your rating for Nebraska went up a little.  Why is this?

A7. There are two factors at play here.  Nebraska’s opponents played to date did play this past weekend, and their ratings adjusted, which adjusted Nebraska’s rating.  Also, the week off usually helps teams.  Thus, Nebraska’s three ratings rose by about 0.6 points each.

Q8. How do you calculate your Bowl and Playoff Projections?  It does not look like you use the “if the season ended today” method.

A8. We do not use the “if the season ended today” method.  We estimate each team’s final won-loss record and then try to do the bowl committees’ work by extending invitations to the bowl teams based on the criteria set in advance.  When all of our competitors agreed 100% that Penn State was their choice for the Rose Bowl, we had Minnesota projected there.  Expect a bunch more sites to now place Minnesota in the Rose Bowl in their projections.

For what it’s worth, in this week’s projections, we only had 79 bowl eligible teams, which means just one bowl eligible team would be excluded in our mind.  Because Missouri could easily lose their appeal before December, then team #79 could become #78.  That team this week is Ohio.

Q9. What do you think about the 4-team Playoff?

A9. While we believe that in most years only four teams might be championship quality, we don’t believe that Power 5 conference champions should be left out.  At the minimum, the NCAA Playoffs should be a 6-team tournament with all Power 5 conference champions making the playoffs along with the top remaining team.  We support the 8-team or even 12-team playoff.  In a perfect world, we would support a 12- team playoff with the reduction of bowls to 30.  The opening round from 12 to 8 with the top 4 getting byes would be played on the better seeded teams’ home field.  The Quarterfinal Round would then be held at four existing bowls, one in each region.  For instance, the Pinstripe, Music City, Alamo, and Holiday Bowls could host this round.

Q10. Who is the best team of all time?

A10. We can only offer our choice from teams that we have seen in our lifetime, and then only offer up who we believe was the most dominant team in the year they played.  Our answer is the 1971 Nebraska Cornhuskers.  They beat teams that finished second, third, and fourth by a combined 105-44, including destroying 11-0 Alabama in the Orange Bowl 38-6.  They also beat 8-win Utah State and Iowa State and 7-win Hawaii by a combined 124-9.  This team had 8 All-Americans and 19 players that made the All Big 8 teams.  22 players on this team were taken in an NFL Draft after their senior years, including multiple reserves.

Q11. If computers are so incredible, why can’t any beat the spread more than 60% of the time?

A11. That is probably the best question we receive.  Computers may or may not be able to beat the spread 60% of the time, but when they do, none of us ever discover this, because it is never made available to the public.

At the Prediction Tracker, where the PiRate Ratings have finished number one against the spread and in picking winners multiple times, in a typical year, the top computer program beats the spread about 56% of the time.  The top geniuses in Las Vegas, the ones that are severely restricted in how much they can wager at each book (and frequently hire others to pretend to be innocent bettors with a system to place their bets for them), beat the spread 60-65% of the time.  

Before you say that the computers aren’t up to snuff when compared to the Vegas brains, you must understand something.  These brainy geniuses don’t pick every game on the board.  At the Prediction Tracker, we pick every game against the spread.  Some of the multi-millionaires winning in Vegas cannot pick every game and beat 56%.  On a typical week, the top bettors might pick as few as three games and seldom more than nine.  They tend to go with an odd number of games to avoid a .500 outcome which guarantees a loss.  Picking three games and going 2-1 or picking 9 games and going 6-3 on a semi-consistent basis will cause the books to restrict or prohibit these smarts from wagering.

Q12. Why do you withhold basketball ratings until after New Year’s Day?

A12. This isn’t a football question, but six of you have asked this of us.  Our college basketball ratings are based on weighted four factors statistics and strength of schedule.  Until teams have played about 10 games, the statistics don’t mean enough to be viable.  The variance in these stats is much too wide until every team has had 10 games to reduce it.  For instance, if we issued ratings today, Utah would be 10 points ahead of Kentucky as the best team.  When you win by 94 points over a team rated in the bottom 5, it is like beating Michigan State by 10.  Therefore, the ratings need a lot more games to be played before they are worth anything.  Starting in January is the perfect fit, since we have minimal football games remaining.

 

 

 

PiRate College Football Ratings: November 3, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday	November 5
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Toledo	Kent St.	2.8	3.2	3.2
Western Michigan	Ball St.	10.9	10.5	10.8
Wednesday	November 6
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Ohio U	Miami (O)	7.4	7.8	7.5
Thursday	November 7
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Coastal Carolina	Louisiana	-11.7	-10.7	-12.1
South Florida	Temple	-3.9	-1.8	-4.3
Friday	November 8
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Oregon St.	Washington	-11.6	-10.2	-12.9
Tulsa	Central Florida	-18.6	-17.1	-18.3
Saturday	November 9
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Alabama	LSU	9.2	8.4	9.9
Arizona St.	USC	2.9	1.8	3.1
Arkansas	Western Kentucky	5.8	5.1	3.9
Army	Massachusetts	38.5	36.9	39.1
Boise St.	Wyoming	9.9	7.7	9.6
Boston College	Florida St.	2.6	2.4	3.0
BYU	Liberty	17.2	15.9	17.4
California	Washington St.	-7.1	-6.7	-7.3
Cincinnati	Connecticut	38.8	34.5	40.2
Colorado	Stanford	-5.5	-5.1	-5.6
Duke	Notre Dame	-7.7	-6.5	-7.3
Florida	Vanderbilt	28.5	26.9	29.3
Florida Atlantic	Florida Int’l.	9.4	9.5	10.9
Fresno St.	Utah St.	-1.0	0.9	-1.2
Georgia	Missouri	18.1	18.6	18.6
Hawaii	San Jose St.	12.0	11.5	11.1
Kentucky	Tennessee	2.2	1.0	2.0
Louisiana Tech	North Texas	6.4	7.1	6.2
Miami (Fla.)	Louisville	10.7	10.4	11.8
Michigan St.	Illinois	14.0	12.1	13.9
Minnesota	Penn St.	-3.9	-3.1	-4.5
New Mexico	Air Force	-21.4	-20.3	-23.4
North Carolina St.	Clemson	-35.7	-33.8	-36.9
Northwestern	Purdue	1.5	0.5	0.7
Ohio St.	Maryland	42.4	42.6	44.9
Oklahoma	Iowa St.	11.8	10.3	11.2
Old Dominion	UTSA	0.7	-1.1	0.9
Ole Miss	New Mexico St.	33.0	30.0	32.9
San Diego St.	Nevada	14.7	14.9	15.2
SMU	East Carolina	26.3	24.6	27.0
South Carolina	Appalachian St.	8.1	7.4	8.1
Southern Miss.	UAB	7.0	4.0	6.5
TCU	Baylor	-4.1	-1.7	-3.2
Texas	Kansas St.	0.7	1.0	0.6
Texas St.	South Alabama	9.8	7.8	9.8
Troy	Georgia Southern	-2.9	-2.1	-3.5
UL-Monroe	Georgia St.	-4.1	-5.0	-4.3
UTEP	Charlotte	-15.1	-11.5	-14.9
Virginia	Georgia Tech	15.8	17.6	15.9
Virginia Tech	Wake Forest	-1.5	-1.0	-1.5
West Virginia	Texas Tech	1.2	0.7	1.6
Wisconsin	Iowa	4.3	5.7	4.3

 

Special Game–150th Anniversary of College Football

Dartmouth and Princeton will play Saturday at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx at 3:30 PM EST.  The game is available on ESPNU, and both teams sport perfect 7-0 records in the FCS Division.  It will mark the 150th anniversary of college football.  Princeton (known then as the College of New Jersey until 1896) and Rutgers met for the first college game in November 6, 1869, and Rutgers won that game 6 goals to 4.

This might be the most important Ivy League game since 8-0-0 Harvard and 8-0-0 Yale battled to an unbelievable 29-29 tie to conclude the 1968 season.  Yale led 29-13 with less than a minute to play, and Harvard scored twice with successful two-point conversions to tie the game and claim part of the Ivy League Championship.

Dartmouth and Princeton have been the top two programs in recent Ivy League history.  Both teams have enjoyed some incredible seasons in the distant past as well.  The 1970 Darmouth team was the best in Ivy League history, as they won the Lambert Trophy for best overall team from the East and finished ranked in the top 20 in the nation after  finishing 9-0.  That Dartmouth team surrendered just 42 points all season, but they didn’t give up a point in their final four games.

Princeton was one of the final teams in major college football to use the old Single Wing offense.  The Tigers went 9-0 and won the Ivy League in 1964, but their 1950 and 1951 teams that went undefeated finished number six in the AP Poll, and star back Dick Kazmaier won the 1951 Heisman Trophy.

The Ivy League isn’t Division 1 any more, and the champion doesn’t even get to go to the FCS Playoffs, but this is still an incredible game worth watching if you have a second monitor to watch in addition to that other 3:30 PM game in Tuscaloosa, AL.

The PiRate Ratings do not rate FCS teams the same way as we rate FBS teams.  We can estimate a power rating based on a former PiRate Formula, which we used from 1980 to 1996.

The estimate for this game is: 

Dartmouth 19

Princeton 16

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Ohio St.	139.0	138.1	140.1	139.1
2	Clemson	135.3	133.0	136.3	134.9
3	Alabama	135.6	132.5	136.3	134.8
4	L S U	129.4	127.1	129.3	128.6
5	Georgia	126.7	124.8	126.7	126.1
6	Penn St.	124.9	124.1	125.2	124.8
7	Utah	123.7	122.6	124.5	123.6
8	Oklahoma	123.5	122.7	123.2	123.1
9	Michigan	123.0	121.6	123.3	122.6
10	Auburn	122.5	120.8	122.3	121.9
11	Oregon	121.2	121.3	122.5	121.7
12	Florida	122.8	119.9	122.3	121.6
13	Wisconsin	120.4	120.0	120.3	120.2
14	Iowa	119.1	117.3	119.0	118.4
15	Minnesota	118.1	117.9	117.8	117.9
16	Notre Dame	116.4	114.7	116.0	115.7
17	Texas A&M	116.2	114.6	115.1	115.3
18	Iowa St.	114.8	115.4	115.0	115.1
19	Washington	114.3	114.0	115.3	114.5
20	Central Florida	113.5	112.8	114.2	113.5
21	Baylor	113.5	113.5	112.8	113.3
22	Washington St.	113.0	112.2	113.5	112.9
23	Kansas St.	112.3	112.2	112.3	112.3
24	Michigan St.	112.7	111.8	112.2	112.2
25	Mississippi St.	110.8	107.5	114.7	111.0
26	South Carolina	111.7	110.0	111.1	110.9
27	Missouri	111.6	109.2	111.1	110.6
28	Indiana	110.6	109.6	110.3	110.2
29	Oklahoma St.	110.0	110.7	109.7	110.1
30	Texas	109.9	110.2	109.9	110.0
31	Tennessee	109.5	109.3	108.6	109.1
32	T C U	107.3	109.8	107.6	108.2
33	Kentucky	108.7	107.3	107.6	107.9
34	Virginia	107.7	107.8	107.9	107.8
35	U S C	107.3	107.8	107.6	107.6
36	Miami (Fla.)	107.2	106.8	108.3	107.4
37	Arizona St.	107.2	106.5	107.7	107.2
38	Cincinnati	107.0	106.0	107.4	106.8
39	Wake Forest	106.5	106.0	107.0	106.5
40	SMU	106.2	105.9	107.1	106.4
41	Memphis	105.9	105.9	106.7	106.2
42	Appalachian St.	106.6	105.6	106.0	106.1
43	Ole Miss	106.4	105.4	106.3	106.0
44	Boise St.	106.0	105.9	106.1	106.0
45	Pittsburgh	105.7	105.3	106.0	105.7
46	North Carolina	105.4	105.2	106.1	105.6
47	Duke	105.7	105.1	105.6	105.5
48	Air Force	103.7	105.0	104.5	104.4
49	Texas Tech	104.4	104.6	103.5	104.2
50	Stanford	104.0	103.3	103.7	103.7
51	Florida St.	103.6	103.5	103.6	103.6
52	Purdue	103.6	103.4	102.9	103.3
53	BYU	103.2	103.2	103.4	103.3
54	Boston College	103.2	102.9	103.6	103.2
55	Nebraska	103.1	103.6	102.3	103.0
56	California	102.8	102.4	103.3	102.8
57	West Virginia	102.7	102.3	102.1	102.3
58	Virginia Tech	102.0	102.0	102.5	102.2
59	Illinois	101.7	102.6	101.3	101.9
60	Northwestern	102.5	101.4	101.2	101.7
61	U C L A	101.7	101.6	101.5	101.6
62	Louisiana	101.3	101.6	101.4	101.4
63	Tulane	99.7	100.5	100.2	100.1
64	Oregon St.	99.8	100.8	99.5	100.0
65	Wyoming	99.0	101.2	99.6	99.9
66	Louisville	99.6	99.4	99.5	99.5
67	Navy	97.9	100.5	98.9	99.1
68	Utah St.	99.2	98.4	99.8	99.1
69	Maryland	99.6	98.5	98.2	98.8
70	Western Michigan	98.8	97.9	98.7	98.5
71	San Diego St.	97.9	99.6	97.7	98.4
72	Temple	98.3	97.5	99.1	98.3
73	Syracuse	98.5	97.7	97.8	98.0
74	Houston	97.0	97.9	99.1	98.0
75	Georgia Southern	96.9	96.7	96.4	96.7
76	Arizona	96.7	96.5	96.2	96.5
77	North Carolina St.	96.6	96.2	96.5	96.4
78	Vanderbilt	97.3	96.0	96.0	96.4
79	Florida Atlantic	95.6	95.5	96.9	96.0
80	Kansas	95.5	96.5	95.4	95.8
81	Fresno St.	95.2	96.2	95.6	95.7
82	Hawaii	95.2	96.6	94.3	95.4
83	Colorado	95.5	95.2	95.1	95.2
84	Georgia Tech	94.8	93.2	95.0	94.3
85	Ohio	94.4	93.5	94.9	94.3
86	Southern Miss.	94.6	93.3	94.8	94.2
87	Louisiana Tech	94.0	94.4	94.3	94.2
88	Army	94.1	94.2	93.4	93.9
89	Buffalo	92.9	93.6	94.4	93.6
90	Georgia St.	92.5	93.8	92.2	92.8
91	Tulsa	91.8	92.7	92.9	92.5
92	Arkansas	92.2	92.2	91.6	92.0
93	South Florida	91.4	92.6	91.8	91.9
94	Troy	91.6	92.1	90.5	91.4
95	Arkansas St.	91.3	91.6	91.2	91.4
96	Marshall	90.8	90.4	91.6	90.9
97	U A B	90.1	91.8	90.7	90.9
98	North Texas	90.6	90.2	91.1	90.6
99	Ball St.	90.4	89.9	90.4	90.2
100	Western Kentucky	89.4	90.2	90.8	90.1
101	Liberty	89.5	90.8	89.6	89.9
102	Middle Tennessee	89.8	89.0	89.9	89.6
103	Northern Illinois	89.5	88.7	89.6	89.3
104	Miami (Ohio)	89.5	88.2	89.9	89.2
105	Toledo	88.4	88.7	89.1	88.7
106	Central Michigan	88.2	88.8	89.1	88.7
107	Colorado St.	87.1	90.7	87.7	88.5
108	San Jose St.	87.7	89.5	87.7	88.3
109	Kent St.	87.6	87.4	87.9	87.6
110	Florida Int’l.	87.7	87.5	87.5	87.6
111	Coastal Carolina	87.2	88.4	86.8	87.5
112	Nevada	86.2	87.7	85.5	86.5
113	Charlotte	86.1	86.4	86.5	86.3
114	Louisiana-Monroe	85.8	86.4	85.4	85.9
115	Eastern Michigan	84.2	84.3	84.5	84.4
116	Rutgers	84.1	83.8	82.9	83.6
117	U N L V	83.1	84.7	82.7	83.5
118	East Carolina	82.9	84.3	83.1	83.4
119	Texas St.	81.8	82.3	81.0	81.7
120	New Mexico	79.8	82.2	78.5	80.2
121	Rice	79.5	80.4	78.7	79.6
122	New Mexico St.	76.4	78.5	76.4	77.1
123	Texas-San Antonio	75.6	77.7	75.5	76.2
124	South Alabama	74.5	77.0	73.7	75.1
125	Bowling Green	74.1	73.9	74.1	74.1
126	Old Dominion	73.8	74.0	73.9	73.9
127	Connecticut	71.2	74.5	70.2	72.0
128	U T E P	68.5	72.5	69.1	70.0
129	Akron	66.9	66.7	65.6	66.4
130	Massachusetts	58.6	60.3	57.3	58.7

 

PiRate Ratings For Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	113.5	112.8	114.2	113.5	4-1	7-2
Cincinnati	107.0	106.0	107.4	106.8	4-0	7-1
Temple	98.3	97.5	99.1	98.3	2-2	5-3
South Florida	91.4	92.6	91.8	91.9	2-2	4-4
East Carolina	82.9	84.3	83.1	83.4	0-5	3-6
Connecticut	71.2	74.5	70.2	72.0	0-5	2-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
SMU	106.2	105.9	107.1	106.4	4-1	8-1
Memphis	105.9	105.9	106.7	106.2	4-1	8-1
Tulane	99.7	100.5	100.2	100.1	3-2	6-3
Navy	97.9	100.5	98.9	99.1	5-1	7-1
Houston	97.0	97.9	99.1	98.0	1-4	3-6
Tulsa	91.8	92.7	92.9	92.5	0-5	2-7
AAC Averages	96.9	97.6	97.6	97.3
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	135.3	133.0	136.3	134.9	6-0	9-0
Wake Forest	106.5	106.0	107.0	106.5	3-1	7-1
Florida St.	103.6	103.5	103.6	103.6	3-4	4-5
Boston College	103.2	102.9	103.6	103.2	3-3	5-4
Louisville	99.6	99.4	99.5	99.5	3-2	5-3
Syracuse	98.5	97.7	97.8	98.0	0-5	3-6
North Carolina St.	96.6	96.2	96.5	96.4	1-3	4-4
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Virginia	107.7	107.8	107.9	107.8	4-2	6-3
Miami (Fla.)	107.2	106.8	108.3	107.4	3-3	5-4
Pittsburgh	105.7	105.3	106.0	105.7	3-2	6-3
North Carolina	105.4	105.2	106.1	105.6	3-3	4-5
Duke	105.7	105.1	105.6	105.5	2-3	4-4
Virginia Tech	102.0	102.0	102.5	102.2	3-2	5-3
Georgia Tech	94.8	93.2	95.0	94.3	1-4	2-6
ACC Averages	105.1	104.6	105.4	105.0
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	123.5	122.7	123.2	123.1	4-1	7-1
Iowa St.	114.8	115.4	115.0	115.1	3-2	5-3
Baylor	113.5	113.5	112.8	113.3	5-0	8-0
Kansas St.	112.3	112.2	112.3	112.3	3-2	6-2
Oklahoma St.	110.0	110.7	109.7	110.1	3-3	6-3
Texas	109.9	110.2	109.9	110.0	3-2	5-3
T C U	107.3	109.8	107.6	108.2	2-3	4-4
Texas Tech	104.4	104.6	103.5	104.2	1-4	3-5
West Virginia	102.7	102.3	102.1	102.3	1-4	3-5
Kansas	95.5	96.5	95.4	95.8	1-5	3-6
Big 12 Averages	109.4	109.8	109.1	109.4
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	139.0	138.1	140.1	139.1	5-0	8-0
Penn St.	124.9	124.1	125.2	124.8	5-0	8-0
Michigan	123.0	121.6	123.3	122.6	4-2	7-2
Michigan St.	112.7	111.8	112.2	112.2	2-3	4-4
Indiana	110.6	109.6	110.3	110.2	4-2	7-2
Maryland	99.6	98.5	98.2	98.8	1-5	3-6
Rutgers	84.1	83.8	82.9	83.6	0-6	2-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	120.4	120.0	120.3	120.2	3-2	6-2
Iowa	119.1	117.3	119.0	118.4	3-2	6-2
Minnesota	118.1	117.9	117.8	117.9	5-0	8-0
Purdue	103.6	103.4	102.9	103.3	2-4	3-6
Nebraska	103.1	103.6	102.3	103.0	2-4	4-5
Illinois	101.7	102.6	101.3	101.9	3-3	5-4
Northwestern	102.5	101.4	101.2	101.7	0-6	1-7
Big Ten Averages	111.6	111.0	111.2	111.3
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	95.6	95.5	96.9	96.0	4-1	6-3
Marshall	90.8	90.4	91.6	90.9	4-1	6-3
Western Kentucky	89.4	90.2	90.8	90.1	4-2	5-4
Middle Tennessee	89.8	89.0	89.9	89.6	2-3	3-6
Florida Int’l.	87.7	87.5	87.5	87.6	3-3	5-4
Charlotte	86.1	86.4	86.5	86.3	2-3	4-5
Old Dominion	73.8	74.0	73.9	73.9	0-5	1-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Southern Miss.	94.6	93.3	94.8	94.2	3-1	5-3
Louisiana Tech	94.0	94.4	94.3	94.2	4-0	7-1
U A B	90.1	91.8	90.7	90.9	3-1	6-2
North Texas	90.6	90.2	91.1	90.6	3-2	4-5
Rice	79.5	80.4	78.7	79.6	0-5	0-9
Texas-San Antonio	75.6	77.7	75.5	76.2	2-2	3-5
U T E P	68.5	72.5	69.1	70.0	0-5	1-7
CUSA Averages	86.1	86.7	86.5	86.4
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	116.4	114.7	116.0	115.7	x	6-2
BYU	103.2	103.2	103.4	103.3	x	4-4
Army	94.1	94.2	93.4	93.9	x	3-6
Liberty	89.5	90.8	89.6	89.9	x	6-3
New Mexico St.	76.4	78.5	76.4	77.1	x	0-8
Massachusetts	58.6	60.3	57.3	58.7	x	1-8
Indep. Averages	89.7	90.3	89.3	89.8
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio	94.4	93.5	94.9	94.3	3-1	4-4
Buffalo	92.9	93.6	94.4	93.6	3-2	5-4
Miami (Ohio)	89.5	88.2	89.9	89.2	3-1	4-4
Kent St.	87.6	87.4	87.9	87.6	2-2	3-5
Bowling Green	74.1	73.9	74.1	74.1	2-3	3-6
Akron	66.9	66.7	65.6	66.4	0-5	0-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Western Michigan	98.8	97.9	98.7	98.5	3-2	5-4
Ball St.	90.4	89.9	90.4	90.2	3-1	4-4
Northern Illinois	89.5	88.7	89.6	89.3	2-3	3-6
Toledo	88.4	88.7	89.1	88.7	2-2	5-3
Central Michigan	88.2	88.8	89.1	88.7	4-2	6-4
Eastern Michigan	84.2	84.3	84.5	84.4	1-4	4-5
MAC Averages	87.1	86.8	87.4	87.1
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	106.0	105.9	106.1	106.0	4-0	7-1
Air Force	103.7	105.0	104.5	104.4	4-1	7-2
Wyoming	99.0	101.2	99.6	99.9	3-1	6-2
Utah St.	99.2	98.4	99.8	99.1	3-1	4-4
Colorado St.	87.1	90.7	87.7	88.5	3-2	4-5
New Mexico	79.8	82.2	78.5	80.2	0-5	2-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
San Diego St.	97.9	99.6	97.7	98.4	4-1	7-1
Fresno St.	95.2	96.2	95.6	95.7	2-2	4-4
Hawaii	95.2	96.6	94.3	95.4	2-3	5-4
San Jose St.	87.7	89.5	87.7	88.3	1-4	4-5
Nevada	86.2	87.7	85.5	86.5	2-3	5-4
U N L V	83.1	84.7	82.7	83.5	1-5	2-7
MWC Averages	93.3	94.8	93.3	93.8
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Oregon	121.2	121.3	122.5	121.7	6-0	8-1
Washington	114.3	114.0	115.3	114.5	2-4	5-4
Washington St.	113.0	112.2	113.5	112.9	1-4	4-4
Stanford	104.0	103.3	103.7	103.7	3-3	4-4
California	102.8	102.4	103.3	102.8	1-4	4-4
Oregon St.	99.8	100.8	99.5	100.0	3-2	4-4
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	123.7	122.6	124.5	123.6	5-1	8-1
U S C	107.3	107.8	107.6	107.6	4-2	5-4
Arizona St.	107.2	106.5	107.7	107.2	2-3	5-3
U C L A	101.7	101.6	101.5	101.6	4-2	4-5
Arizona	96.7	96.5	96.2	96.5	2-4	4-5
Colorado	95.5	95.2	95.1	95.2	1-5	3-6
Pac-12 Averages	107.3	107.0	107.5	107.3
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	126.7	124.8	126.7	126.1	4-1	7-1
Florida	122.8	119.9	122.3	121.6	5-2	7-2
South Carolina	111.7	110.0	111.1	110.9	3-4	4-5
Missouri	111.6	109.2	111.1	110.6	2-2	5-3
Tennessee	109.5	109.3	108.6	109.1	2-3	4-5
Kentucky	108.7	107.3	107.6	107.9	2-4	4-4
Vanderbilt	97.3	96.0	96.0	96.4	1-4	2-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	135.6	132.5	136.3	134.8	5-0	8-0
L S U	129.4	127.1	129.3	128.6	4-0	8-0
Auburn	122.5	120.8	122.3	121.9	4-2	7-2
Texas A&M	116.2	114.6	115.1	115.3	3-2	6-3
Mississippi St.	110.8	107.5	114.7	111.0	2-4	4-5
Ole Miss	106.4	105.4	106.3	106.0	2-4	3-6
Arkansas	92.2	92.2	91.6	92.0	0-6	2-7
SEC Averages	114.4	112.6	114.2	113.7
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	106.6	105.6	106.0	106.1	4-1	7-1
Georgia Southern	96.9	96.7	96.4	96.7	3-1	5-3
Georgia St.	92.5	93.8	92.2	92.8	3-1	6-2
Troy	91.6	92.1	90.5	91.4	1-3	3-5
Coastal Carolina	87.2	88.4	86.8	87.5	1-3	4-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	101.3	101.6	101.4	101.4	3-1	6-2
Arkansas St.	91.3	91.6	91.2	91.4	3-2	5-4
Louisiana-Monroe	85.8	86.4	85.4	85.9	2-2	3-5
Texas St.	81.8	82.3	81.0	81.7	1-3	2-6
South Alabama	74.5	77.0	73.7	75.1	0-4	1-7
SBC Averages	91.0	91.6	90.5	91.0

 

Rating The Conferences

#	League	Average
1	Southeastern	113.7
2	Big Ten	111.3
3	Big 12	109.4
4	Pac-12	107.3
5	Atlantic Coast	105.0
6	American	97.3
7	Mountain West	93.8
8	Sun Belt	91.0
9	Independents	89.8
10	Mid-American	87.1
11	Conference USA	86.4

 

PiRate Rating Guess On Initial Top 4

Prediction on Selection Committee Choices on Tuesday
1	LSU
2	Ohio St.
3	Alabama
4	Penn St.

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1	Memphis
2	Cincinnati
3	Boise St.
4	Navy
5	SMU

Playoffs and Bowl Projections

 

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Buffalo	Marshall
Frisco	AAC	At-large	SMU	[Boise St.]
Cure	AAC	SBC	[Liberty]	Arkansas St.
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	UAB	Hawaii
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Tulane	Ohio
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Central Michigan	Georgia St.
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Pac-12	San Diego St.	Oregon St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	Louisiana Tech	Louisiana
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Cincinnati	Florida Atlantic
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC	BYU	Navy
Independence	ACC	SEC	Miami (Fla.)	[Southern Miss.]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	North Carolina	Michigan St.
Military	ACC	AAC	Boston College	Temple
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Virginia	Michigan
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Texas A&M
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	USC	Iowa
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	Iowa St.	Arizona St.
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Notre Dame	Oklahoma St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Memphis	Baylor
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	Western Kentucky	[Fresno St.]
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	Washington	Illinois
Music City	SEC	ACC	[Ball St.]	Pittsburgh
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Wake Forest	Florida
Belk	ACC	SEC	Virginia Tech	Mississippi St.
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Louisville	Washington St.
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	TCU	[Stanford]
Arizona	SBC	MWC	Appalachian St.	Air Force
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Kansas St.	Utah
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Auburn	Wisconsin
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	Tennessee
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Minnesota	Oregon
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	Georgia
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Central Florida	[Duke]
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	Kentucky	Indiana
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Toledo	Utah St.
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	Nebraska	Wyoming
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Western Michigan	Georgia Southern
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	Ohio St.	Clemson
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	Alabama	LSU
Championship	Fiesta	Peach	Ohio St.	Alabama
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

This Is The Weekend

We don’t really need to say anything.  If you are reading this publication, you already know how incredible this weekend will be in college football.  On a typical November 9 in prior years, the incredible Princeton-Dartmouth game at Yankee Stadium might be the marquee game of the weekend.  Unfortunately, it starts at the same time as the biggie at Bryant-Denny.  Let’s take a brief look at the games that may make you want to stay home on Saturday, throw some logs on the fireplace, enjoy your favorite snacks and beverages, and watch two to three games at the same time.

 

12 Noon EST

 

 

Penn St. (8-0) at Minnesota (8-0)–ABC

The winner stays in the hunt for a Playoff spot, while the loser probably falls out of the Rose Bowl race.  Minnesota hasn’t played in a November game that had this type of importance since they played at Purdue in November of 1967 with a Rose Bowl bid on the line.  Purdue clobbered the Gophers that day, and even though Minnesota beat undefeated Indiana the following week, when the season ended in a three-way tie for first, Indiana received the Rose Bowl bid because Minnesota and Purdue had been in the Rose Bowl more recently (It was the Hoosiers’ only Rose Bowl invitation).

Penn State has been in the Rose Bowl more recently, but the Nittany Lions would consider a trip to Pasadena this year to be a failure.  James Franklin has his team in line for the Playoffs if they could upset Ohio State on the November 23 and then win the Big Ten Championship.  Of course, the same holds true for the Gophers.  Wins over Penn State, Iowa, Wisconsin, and then Ohio State would definitely put Minnesota in the Playoffs.  Consider this game the equivalent of a Sweet 16 game in the NCAA Basketball Tournament.

 

Baylor (8-0) at TCU (4-4)–FS1

This is a 100% definite trap game for the undefeated Bears.  Baylor hosts Oklahoma on November 16, and no matter how hard Coach Matt Rhule tries to convince his squad that TCU is good enough to beat them, the players are already counting down the days until the Sooners come to Waco.

TCU is on the verge of having to worry about where two more victories will come, so bowl eligibility is not yet a given in Forth Worth.  The Horned Frogs have to win two of their final four and have games at Texas Tech and Oklahoma, as well as a home finale with West Virginia.  They will be underdogs in three of their final four and must upset somebody to get to a bowl.

 

 

3:30 PM EST

 

LSU (8-0) at Alabama (8-0)–CBS

The knock against LSU in recent years was that the Tigers were too conservative on the offensive attack, and defense and running couldn’t beat Alabama and other behemoths.  This year, LSU’s offense can light it up against anybody, including Alabama’s defense.

The rub is that with the increased offensive efficiency and quick scoring passing attack, the Tigers’ defense has been forced to play up to 20 additional snaps per game, and opponents are finding ways to move the ball on the former tough defense.

All that’s changed is that LSU wins games 42-27 instead of 27-12.  A 15-point victory is a 15-point victory.  In the SEC, talent at each of the two-deep offenses and defenses just mean more than whether a team can pass the ball for 300 yards and score 30 points or hold the opponents to 250 total yards and 14 points.

Alabama still has the superior overall talent in the two-deeps on both sides of the ball.  In the past, Alabama might have won this game 24-14.  We believe they will continue to dominate this series and win it 45-35.  A 10-point superior team is still 10 points better than the other team.

 

Dartmouth (7-0) vs. Princeton (7-0) @ Yankee Stadium in the Bronx–ESPNU

This is the 150th Anniversary of College Football, so it is worth tuning in to watch when and if the big game is not as exciting.  It isn’t the original Yankee Stadium, but Yankee Stadium has been the site of many great college football games including the incredible Army-Notre Dame game of 1946, which ended 0-0.

 

Kansas St. (6-2) at Texas (5-3)–ESPN

Both teams are 3-2 in the Big 12, and they are still mathematically in the race for the number two spot in the Conference Championship Game.  Kansas State holds the tiebreaker over Oklahoma, so if the Wildcats can win out, and Oklahoma loses to Baylor or Oklahoma State, the Wildcats will play for a chance to go to the Sugar Bowl.

This has been a down year for Texas, and the Longhorns could be falling far enough to be placed in a bowl game in Houston against those Aggies.  The Texas Bowl would love that, but the Longhorns wouldn’t.

 

Illinois (5-4) at Michigan St. (4-4)–FS1

Why do we consider this game so important?  Illinois was given up for dead in early October, as the Illini appeared to be headed to a 6th or 7th place finish in the Big Ten West, and Coach Lovie Smith was probably on the way out.  Illinois had defeated Akron and Connecticut, two of the bottom 10 teams in the nation, and they had lost to Eastern Michigan.  At 2-4, Illinois then upset Wisconsin and followed that up with an impressive win at Purdue and a four-touchdown trouncing of Rutgers.  The Illini need one more victory to go bowling.  They are likely to get it against Northwestern to close out the season, but if Illinois can win at Michigan State, they will move up a couple of places in the bowl pecking order.

Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio is going to have to learn how to change or else he could be on his way toward retirement.  Dantonio is one of the lone holdovers to horse and buggy football.  Michigan State plays like it is still 1975, and the team that rushes for 200 yards and holds the other to less than 100 yards is going to win with relative ease.  That’s not how teams win these days.  If Sparty loses this game, there is a better than 50-50 chance that they will not get six wins or go to a bowl.  Even if they win this game, they may only be able to garner the lowly Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit.

 

Louisville (5-3) at Miami (Fla.) (5-4)–FS1

Louisville coach Scott Satterfield should receive some votes for ACC Coach of the Year, as the Cardinals were picked to finish last in the Atlantic Division, and they are most likely going to be bowl eligible.

Miami still has a small chance to win the Coastal Division, but a lot of things have to happen to make that a reality.  First and foremost is that the Hurricanes win their last three games.

The winner of this game becomes bowl eligible, and you should get the best from both teams, which will make this exciting enough to put an auxiliary monitor on this game.

 

4:00 PM EST

 

 

Iowa (6-2) at Wisconsin (6-2)–Fox

Minnesota has not clinched the West Division in the Big Ten, so the winner of this game remains in contention for the flag, since both must still play the Gophers.  If Penn State wins the 12:00 game, then whoever wins this one will get a chance to play Minnesota for first place later in November.

Expect a hard-fought, defensive struggle in this one, and the weather is expected to be cold and windy.  If you like the old blood and guts games of the 1950’s (yes, we know we have some gray-haired readers), then this is the game for you.  It could be one of those 12-10 games.

 

 

7:30 PM EST

 

 

Tennessee (4-5) at Kentucky (4-4)–SEC Network

How about a career saving resurrection?  Tennessee head coach Jeremy Pruitt was one step out the door in Knoxville a month ago.  At 1-4 with losses at home to Georgia State and BYU, the Vols looked like a potentially 2-10 or possible 1-11 team.

Tennessee was reborn after a blowout loss to Georgia.  Wins over Mississippi State, South Carolina, and UAB, and a loss to Alabama that was still in doubt into the fourth quarter has the Vols on the verge of becoming bowl eligible.

Kentucky began the season strong enough to contend for a New Year’s 6 Bowl.  Losing quarterback Terry Wilson probably cost the Wildcats two, possibly three wins to date, and Kentucky’s defense is not strong enough to hold Tennessee below 20 points in Lexington.  Can the Wildcats find some offense that they have not been able to find without Wilson under center?  A loss here will put the K-Cats under .500, but with Vanderbilt and UT-Martin following this game, the blue and white can still get to 6-6.

 

8:00 PM EST

 

 

Iowa State (5-3) at Oklahoma (7-1)–Fox

The last time Iowa State came to Norman, the Cyclones pulled off a major upset.  If they want to make the Big 12 Championship Game, they will have to do it again.  Of course, Oklahoma is coming off a bye week following their upset loss to Kansas State, so the Sooners are likely to play their best game of the season.

The question is, can Oklahoma’s defense stop Iowa State’s offense, and can the Sooners score at least 38 points in this game?

There’s another little issue in this game.  Oklahoma has a date at Baylor next week.  Even coming off a loss and a bye week, some of the Sooners may have a hard time thinking about Iowa State with the undefeated Bears coming up next week.  This should be an exciting game, especially under the lights at Owen Field.

 

 

10:15 PM EST

 

 

Wyoming (6-2) at Boise St. (7-1)–ESPN

Boise State has been a bit off in October and November.  The Broncos are not likely to earn the Group of 5 bid to a NY6 bowl, and they are now playing for their lives in the Mountain Division of the Mountain West.

Wyoming is a no-nonsense hard-hitting team that can wear teams down in the second half.  The Cowboys have enough talent to go to the Field of Blue and move into first place in the division.  If you are a night owl and stay up late on Saturday night watching games from the Rockies and West Coast, this is definitely one you should plan to watch.  Wyoming is coming into this game looking like they are sitting on their best production in the next few weeks.  We have this sneaky suspicion that the Cowboys will be in the lead in the fourth quarter in this game.

 

 

10:30 PM EST

 

 

Nevada (5-4) at San Diego St. (7-1)–ESPN2

San Diego State is in first place in the West Division of the Mountain West, but the Aztecs must play Nevada, Fresno State, and Hawaii in successive weeks, so even though Nevada is just 2-3 in conference play, the Wolf Pack are still alive in the division race.  This should be a relatively close game, and it could be decided on a late turnover or big play.  If you can stay up until 1:45 on the East Coast, you may be rewarded with some excitement to end your college football fix.

PiRate College Football Ratings: October 28, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Thursday	October 31
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Appalachian St.	Georgia Southern	16.9	16.3	17.3
Baylor	West Virginia	14.9	15.7	15.4
Friday	November 1
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Connecticut	Navy	-20.7	-19.8	-22.6
Saturday	November 2
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Wake Forest	North Carolina St.	6.2	5.9	6.4
Massachusetts	Liberty	-24.7	-23.9	-26.1
Florida Int’l.	Old Dominion	17.4	16.9	17.3
Coastal Carolina	Troy	-2.6	-2.1	-2.3
Georgia Tech	Pittsburgh	-7.6	-9.1	-7.4
Purdue	Nebraska	3.5	2.6	3.7
Central Florida	Houston	19.9	18.3	18.7
Maryland	Michigan	-17.1	-16.4	-18.7
Indiana	Northwestern	7.1	7.1	8.0
Bowling Green	Akron	5.9	5.7	7.0
Illinois	Rutgers	19.3	20.6	19.8
East Carolina	Cincinnati	-24.6	-21.8	-25.2
Syracuse	Boston College	6.6	6.3	5.7
Eastern Michigan	Buffalo	-0.6	-1.1	-1.5
North Carolina	Virginia	1.8	1.6	2.8
Utah St.	BYU	4.4	3.6	5.2
Notre Dame	Virginia Tech	19.2	17.4	18.5
USC	Oregon	-5.7	-5.2	-6.6
UCLA	Colorado	7.9	7.8	7.6
Kansas	Kansas St.	-12.0	-10.9	-11.7
Louisiana	Texas St.	22.1	21.5	22.6
South Carolina	Vanderbilt	17.4	16.9	18.1
Central Michigan	Northern Illinois	-7.2	-5.5	-6.5
Rice	Marshall	-8.4	-6.7	-10.0
Colorado St.	UNLV	4.3	6.5	5.1
Memphis	SMU	2.0	2.1	1.3
Texas A&M	UTSA	44.8	40.6	43.9
Air Force	Army	13.5	14.9	15.5
Arizona	Oregon St.	4.3	3.1	4.6
Tennessee	UAB	22.4	20.0	20.2
Auburn	Ole Miss	21.3	20.4	21.5
Florida (n)	Georgia	-3.5	-4.5	-3.8
Oklahoma St.	TCU	5.7	3.5	4.7
North Texas	UTEP	24.4	19.5	23.9
Tulane	Tulsa	10.9	10.8	10.1
Arkansas	Mississippi St.	-11.2	-7.3	-15.8
Charlotte	Middle Tennessee	-5.2	-4.0	-5.2
Western Kentucky	Florida Atlantic	-1.5	-0.3	-0.8
UL-Monroe	Arkansas St.	-2.6	-2.1	-2.4
Florida St.	Miami (Fla.)	2.1	2.9	1.5
Nevada	New Mexico	8.7	7.4	8.8
Washington	Utah	-6.3	-5.7	-6.2
San Jose St.	Boise St.	-16.1	-13.8	-16.7
Hawaii	Fresno St.	5.4	6.0	4.3
FBS vs.	FCS
Clemson	Wofford	48

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Ohio St.	138.7	137.8	139.8	138.8
2	Clemson	135.0	132.7	136.0	134.6
3	Alabama	135.3	132.2	136.0	134.5
4	L S U	129.1	126.8	129.0	128.3
5	Georgia	126.5	124.6	126.4	125.8
6	Penn St.	124.6	123.8	124.9	124.5
7	Utah	123.7	122.6	124.5	123.6
8	Auburn	123.7	122.0	123.7	123.1
9	Oklahoma	123.2	122.4	122.9	122.8
10	Florida	123.0	120.1	122.6	121.9
11	Michigan	121.5	119.9	121.8	121.1
12	Wisconsin	120.1	119.7	120.0	119.9
13	Oregon	118.4	118.4	119.6	118.8
14	Iowa	118.8	117.0	118.7	118.1
15	Minnesota	117.8	117.6	117.5	117.6
16	Notre Dame	117.6	115.8	117.3	116.9
17	Texas A&M	117.4	115.6	116.4	116.5
18	Iowa St.	114.5	115.1	114.7	114.8
19	Washington	114.3	114.0	115.3	114.5
20	Baylor	114.3	114.5	113.9	114.2
21	Central Florida	113.7	113.0	114.5	113.7
22	Washington St.	112.7	111.9	113.2	112.6
23	Michigan St.	112.4	111.5	111.9	111.9
24	South Carolina	111.7	110.0	111.1	110.9
25	Missouri	111.3	108.9	110.8	110.3
26	Kansas St.	110.4	110.3	110.2	110.3
27	Oklahoma St.	110.0	110.5	109.5	110.0
28	U S C	109.6	110.2	110.0	110.0
29	Texas	109.6	109.9	109.6	109.7
30	Mississippi St.	109.1	105.5	113.1	109.2
31	Tennessee	109.5	109.1	108.3	109.0
32	Cincinnati	108.6	107.4	109.2	108.4
33	T C U	107.3	110.0	107.8	108.4
34	Indiana	108.8	107.7	108.4	108.3
35	Appalachian St.	108.7	107.8	108.4	108.3
36	Kentucky	108.4	107.0	107.3	107.6
37	Virginia	107.2	107.2	107.1	107.2
38	SMU	106.7	106.5	107.9	107.0
39	Arizona St.	106.9	106.2	107.4	106.9
40	Boise St.	106.4	106.1	106.7	106.4
41	North Carolina	105.9	105.8	106.9	106.2
42	Memphis	105.7	105.6	106.2	105.8
43	Florida St.	105.6	105.7	105.8	105.7
44	Miami (Fla.)	105.5	104.9	106.4	105.6
45	Pittsburgh	105.6	105.3	105.7	105.5
46	Duke	105.4	104.8	105.3	105.2
47	Air Force	104.3	105.7	105.4	105.1
48	Ole Miss	105.5	104.5	105.2	105.1
49	Northwestern	104.6	103.6	103.4	103.9
50	Texas Tech	104.1	104.3	103.2	103.9
51	Wake Forest	103.8	103.2	104.1	103.7
52	Stanford	103.7	103.0	103.4	103.4
53	Purdue	103.6	103.3	102.9	103.3
54	Nebraska	103.1	103.7	102.3	103.0
55	Syracuse	103.4	102.7	102.8	103.0
56	California	102.5	102.1	103.0	102.5
57	Utah St.	102.5	101.7	103.3	102.5
58	West Virginia	102.4	101.8	101.5	101.9
59	Virginia Tech	101.3	101.4	101.7	101.5
60	Illinois	101.2	102.1	100.6	101.3
61	Louisiana	101.1	101.2	101.0	101.1
62	U C L A	101.0	100.8	100.6	100.8
63	Maryland	101.4	100.5	100.0	100.6
64	Tulane	99.7	100.5	100.1	100.1
65	Boston College	99.8	99.4	100.1	99.8
66	Wyoming	98.7	100.9	99.3	99.6
67	BYU	99.6	99.6	99.6	99.6
68	North Carolina St.	99.6	99.3	99.7	99.5
69	Louisville	99.3	99.1	99.2	99.2
70	Arizona	98.9	98.7	98.6	98.7
71	Western Michigan	98.6	97.7	98.5	98.3
72	San Diego St.	97.6	99.3	97.4	98.1
73	Temple	98.0	97.2	98.8	98.0
74	Oregon St.	97.6	98.6	97.1	97.8
75	Houston	96.8	97.7	98.8	97.7
76	Kansas	96.9	97.9	97.0	97.3
77	Navy	95.9	98.4	96.8	97.1
78	Vanderbilt	97.3	96.0	96.0	96.4
79	Colorado	96.2	96.0	96.0	96.0
80	Hawaii	95.8	97.3	95.0	96.0
81	Fresno St.	94.9	95.8	95.2	95.3
82	Arkansas	94.9	95.2	94.2	94.8
83	Florida Atlantic	94.5	94.2	95.5	94.7
84	Georgia Tech	94.9	93.2	95.3	94.5
85	Georgia Southern	94.8	94.5	94.0	94.5
86	Ohio	94.2	93.3	94.7	94.1
87	Northern Illinois	94.3	93.4	94.5	94.1
88	Southern Miss.	94.4	93.1	94.6	94.0
89	Louisiana Tech	93.8	94.2	94.1	94.0
90	Army	93.8	93.8	92.8	93.5
91	Georgia St.	92.3	93.6	92.0	92.6
92	Tulsa	91.8	92.7	93.0	92.5
93	Troy	92.1	92.7	91.2	92.0
94	Middle Tennessee	91.9	91.1	92.2	91.7
95	South Florida	91.1	92.3	91.5	91.6
96	Western Kentucky	90.5	91.5	92.2	91.4
97	Buffalo	90.5	91.1	91.8	91.1
98	U A B	90.1	92.0	91.0	91.1
99	Arkansas St.	91.1	91.3	90.8	91.1
100	Marshall	90.6	90.0	91.4	90.7
101	North Texas	90.5	89.8	90.8	90.4
102	Ball St.	90.2	89.7	90.2	90.0
103	Miami (Ohio)	89.3	88.0	89.7	89.0
104	Toledo	88.2	88.5	88.9	88.5
105	Liberty	87.9	89.0	88.0	88.3
106	Florida Int’l.	88.3	88.1	88.3	88.2
107	San Jose St.	87.3	89.3	87.1	87.9
108	Eastern Michigan	87.3	87.5	87.8	87.6
109	Kent St.	87.4	87.2	87.7	87.4
110	Colorado St.	85.9	89.6	86.4	87.3
111	Coastal Carolina	87.0	88.1	86.4	87.2
112	Nevada	86.1	87.4	85.2	86.2
113	Louisiana-Monroe	86.0	86.7	85.8	86.2
114	Central Michigan	84.7	85.4	85.5	85.2
115	U N L V	84.6	86.1	84.3	85.0
116	Charlotte	84.3	84.6	84.5	84.5
117	Rutgers	84.9	84.6	83.9	84.5
118	Texas St.	82.0	82.7	81.4	82.0
119	East Carolina	81.0	82.6	81.0	81.5
120	New Mexico	79.9	82.5	78.8	80.4
121	Rice	79.7	80.8	78.9	79.8
122	New Mexico St.	76.2	78.3	76.2	76.9
123	Texas-San Antonio	74.7	77.0	74.5	75.4
124	South Alabama	74.3	76.8	73.5	74.9
125	Connecticut	73.2	76.6	72.3	74.0
126	Old Dominion	73.5	73.7	73.4	73.5
127	Bowling Green	72.7	72.4	72.6	72.6
128	U T E P	68.6	72.9	69.4	70.3
129	Akron	69.4	69.3	68.2	68.9
130	Massachusetts	60.7	62.6	59.4	60.9

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	113.7	113.0	114.5	113.7	3-1	6-2
Cincinnati	108.6	107.4	109.2	108.4	3-0	6-1
Temple	98.0	97.2	98.8	98.0	2-2	5-3
South Florida	91.1	92.3	91.5	91.6	2-2	4-4
East Carolina	81.0	82.6	81.0	81.5	0-4	3-5
Connecticut	73.2	76.6	72.3	74.0	0-4	2-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
SMU	106.7	106.5	107.9	107.0	4-0	8-0
Memphis	105.7	105.6	106.2	105.8	3-1	7-1
Tulane	99.7	100.5	100.1	100.1	2-2	5-3
Houston	96.8	97.7	98.8	97.7	1-3	3-5
Navy	95.9	98.4	96.8	97.1	4-1	6-1
Tulsa	91.8	92.7	93.0	92.5	0-4	2-6
AAC Averages	96.8	97.5	97.5	97.3
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	135.0	132.7	136.0	134.6	6-0	8-0
Florida St.	105.6	105.7	105.8	105.7	3-3	4-4
Wake Forest	103.8	103.2	104.1	103.7	2-1	6-1
Syracuse	103.4	102.7	102.8	103.0	0-4	3-5
Boston College	99.8	99.4	100.1	99.8	2-3	4-4
North Carolina St.	99.6	99.3	99.7	99.5	1-2	4-3
Louisville	99.3	99.1	99.2	99.2	3-2	5-3
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Virginia	107.2	107.2	107.1	107.2	3-2	5-3
North Carolina	105.9	105.8	106.9	106.2	3-2	4-4
Miami (Fla.)	105.5	104.9	106.4	105.6	2-3	4-4
Pittsburgh	105.6	105.3	105.7	105.5	2-2	5-3
Duke	105.4	104.8	105.3	105.2	2-3	4-4
Virginia Tech	101.3	101.4	101.7	101.5	3-2	5-2
Georgia Tech	94.9	93.2	95.3	94.5	1-3	2-5
ACC Averages	105.2	104.6	105.4	105.1
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	123.2	122.4	122.9	122.8	4-1	7-1
Iowa St.	114.5	115.1	114.7	114.8	3-2	5-3
Baylor	114.3	114.5	113.9	114.2	4-0	7-0
Kansas St.	110.4	110.3	110.2	110.3	2-2	5-2
Oklahoma St.	110.0	110.5	109.5	110.0	2-3	5-3
Texas	109.6	109.9	109.6	109.7	3-2	5-3
T C U	107.3	110.0	107.8	108.4	2-2	4-3
Texas Tech	104.1	104.3	103.2	103.9	1-4	3-5
West Virginia	102.4	101.8	101.5	101.9	1-3	3-4
Kansas	96.9	97.9	97.0	97.3	1-4	3-5
Big 12 Averages	109.3	109.7	109.0	109.3
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	138.7	137.8	139.8	138.8	5-0	8-0
Penn St.	124.6	123.8	124.9	124.5	5-0	8-0
Michigan	121.5	119.9	121.8	121.1	3-2	6-2
Michigan St.	112.4	111.5	111.9	111.9	2-3	4-4
Indiana	108.8	107.7	108.4	108.3	3-2	6-2
Maryland	101.4	100.5	100.0	100.6	1-4	3-5
Rutgers	84.9	84.6	83.9	84.5	0-5	2-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	120.1	119.7	120.0	119.9	3-2	6-2
Iowa	118.8	117.0	118.7	118.1	3-2	6-2
Minnesota	117.8	117.6	117.5	117.6	5-0	8-0
Northwestern	104.6	103.6	103.4	103.9	0-5	1-6
Purdue	103.6	103.3	102.9	103.3	1-4	2-6
Nebraska	103.1	103.7	102.3	103.0	2-3	4-4
Illinois	101.2	102.1	100.6	101.3	2-3	4-4
Big Ten Averages	111.5	110.9	111.1	111.2
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	94.5	94.2	95.5	94.7	3-1	5-3
Middle Tennessee	91.9	91.1	92.2	91.7	2-2	3-5
Western Kentucky	90.5	91.5	92.2	91.4	4-1	5-3
Marshall	90.6	90.0	91.4	90.7	3-1	5-3
Florida Int’l.	88.3	88.1	88.3	88.2	2-3	4-4
Charlotte	84.3	84.6	84.5	84.5	1-3	3-5
Old Dominion	73.5	73.7	73.4	73.5	0-4	1-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Southern Miss.	94.4	93.1	94.6	94.0	3-1	5-3
Louisiana Tech	93.8	94.2	94.1	94.0	4-0	7-1
U A B	90.1	92.0	91.0	91.1	3-1	6-1
North Texas	90.5	89.8	90.8	90.4	2-2	3-5
Rice	79.7	80.8	78.9	79.8	0-4	0-8
Texas-San Antonio	74.7	77.0	74.5	75.4	2-2	3-4
U T E P	68.6	72.9	69.4	70.3	0-4	1-6
CUSA Averages	86.1	86.7	86.5	86.4
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	117.6	115.8	117.3	116.9	x	5-2
BYU	99.6	99.6	99.6	99.6	x	3-4
Army	93.8	93.8	92.8	93.5	x	3-5
Liberty	87.9	89.0	88.0	88.3	x	5-3
New Mexico St.	76.2	78.3	76.2	76.9	x	0-8
Massachusetts	60.7	62.6	59.4	60.9	x	1-7
Indep. Averages	89.3	89.8	88.9	89.3
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio	94.2	93.3	94.7	94.1	3-1	4-4
Buffalo	90.5	91.1	91.8	91.1	2-2	4-4
Miami (Ohio)	89.3	88.0	89.7	89.0	3-1	4-4
Kent St.	87.4	87.2	87.7	87.4	2-2	3-5
Bowling Green	72.7	72.4	72.6	72.6	1-3	2-6
Akron	69.4	69.3	68.2	68.9	0-4	0-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Western Michigan	98.6	97.7	98.5	98.3	3-2	5-4
Northern Illinois	94.3	93.4	94.5	94.1	2-2	3-5
Ball St.	90.2	89.7	90.2	90.0	3-1	4-4
Toledo	88.2	88.5	88.9	88.5	2-2	5-3
Eastern Michigan	87.3	87.5	87.8	87.6	1-3	4-4
Central Michigan	84.7	85.4	85.5	85.2	3-2	5-4
MAC Averages	87.2	87.0	87.5	87.2
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	106.4	106.1	106.7	106.4	3-0	6-1
Air Force	104.3	105.7	105.4	105.1	4-1	6-2
Utah St.	102.5	101.7	103.3	102.5	3-1	4-3
Wyoming	98.7	100.9	99.3	99.6	3-1	6-2
Colorado St.	85.9	89.6	86.4	87.3	2-2	3-5
New Mexico	79.9	82.5	78.8	80.4	0-4	2-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
San Diego St.	97.6	99.3	97.4	98.1	4-1	7-1
Hawaii	95.8	97.3	95.0	96.0	2-2	5-3
Fresno St.	94.9	95.8	95.2	95.3	1-2	3-4
San Jose St.	87.3	89.3	87.1	87.9	1-3	4-4
Nevada	86.1	87.4	85.2	86.2	1-3	4-4
U N L V	84.6	86.1	84.3	85.0	1-4	2-6
MWC Averages	93.7	95.1	93.7	94.2
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Oregon	118.4	118.4	119.6	118.8	5-0	7-1
Washington	114.3	114.0	115.3	114.5	2-3	5-3
Washington St.	112.7	111.9	113.2	112.6	1-4	4-4
Stanford	103.7	103.0	103.4	103.4	3-3	4-4
California	102.5	102.1	103.0	102.5	1-4	4-4
Oregon St.	97.6	98.6	97.1	97.8	2-2	3-4
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	123.7	122.6	124.5	123.6	4-1	7-1
U S C	109.6	110.2	110.0	110.0	4-1	5-3
Arizona St.	106.9	106.2	107.4	106.9	2-3	5-3
U C L A	101.0	100.8	100.6	100.8	3-2	3-5
Arizona	98.9	98.7	98.6	98.7	2-3	4-4
Colorado	96.2	96.0	96.0	96.0	1-4	3-5
Pac-12 Averages	107.1	106.9	107.4	107.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	126.5	124.6	126.4	125.8	3-1	6-1
Florida	123.0	120.1	122.6	121.9	5-1	7-1
South Carolina	111.7	110.0	111.1	110.9	2-4	3-5
Missouri	111.3	108.9	110.8	110.3	2-2	5-3
Tennessee	109.5	109.1	108.3	109.0	2-3	3-5
Kentucky	108.4	107.0	107.3	107.6	2-4	4-4
Vanderbilt	97.3	96.0	96.0	96.4	1-3	2-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	135.3	132.2	136.0	134.5	5-0	8-0
L S U	129.1	126.8	129.0	128.3	4-0	8-0
Auburn	123.7	122.0	123.7	123.1	3-2	6-2
Texas A&M	117.4	115.6	116.4	116.5	3-2	5-3
Mississippi St.	109.1	105.5	113.1	109.2	1-4	3-5
Ole Miss	105.5	104.5	105.2	105.1	2-3	3-5
Arkansas	94.9	95.2	94.2	94.8	0-5	2-6
SEC Averages	114.5	112.7	114.3	113.8
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	108.7	107.8	108.4	108.3	4-0	7-0
Georgia Southern	94.8	94.5	94.0	94.5	2-1	4-3
Georgia St.	92.3	93.6	92.0	92.6	3-1	6-2
Troy	92.1	92.7	91.2	92.0	1-2	3-4
Coastal Carolina	87.0	88.1	86.4	87.2	0-3	3-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	101.1	101.2	101.0	101.1	2-1	5-2
Arkansas St.	91.1	91.3	90.8	91.1	2-2	4-4
Louisiana-Monroe	86.0	86.7	85.8	86.2	2-1	3-4
Texas St.	82.0	82.7	81.4	82.0	1-2	2-5
South Alabama	74.3	76.8	73.5	74.9	0-4	1-7
SBC Averages	90.9	91.5	90.5	91.0

 

Conference Power Ratings
#	League	Average
1	Southeastern	113.8
2	Big Ten	111.2
3	Big 12	109.3
4	Pac-12	107.1
5	Atlantic Coast	105.1
6	American	97.3
7	Mountain West	94.2
8	Sun Belt	91.0
9	Independents	89.3
10	Mid-American	87.2
11	Conference USA	86.4

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1	SMU
2	Appalachian St.
3	Cincinnati
4	Navy
5	Boise St.

 

This Week’s Look At Some Key Contenders Not Getting Enough Publicity

What a difference a strange weekend of football makes!  With Kansas State beating Oklahoma, and LSU taking care of business against Auburn, the playoff picture began to swing toward the SEC getting two teams into the Playoffs.  At the moment, the Big Ten still has three undefeated teams, so there is a chance that the Big Ten could get two teams into the Playoffs if the regular season ends with a 13-0 team and a 12-1 or 11-1 team.

Minnesota will get its chance to prove whether they truly are Golden Gophers or just pests digging a hole in the ground.  If  Minny can beat Penn State, and then the Gophers follow it up with wins at Iowa and at home against Wisconsin, then the least Minnesota could get for a postseason reward would be their first trip to the Rose Bowl since January of 1962.

Having closely watched and diagnosed every scrimmage play in Minnesota’s last two games, this team looks to be legitimate.  The Gophers have an excellent inside-outside running attack.  Their running backs hit the perimeter quickly with speed.  The Gophers can get yards between the tackles as well.  Of all the teams we have seen so far this year, Minnesota’s rushing attack is the most consistent among teams that do not use the option.

The Gopher passing attack is one of the best in the nation with Tanner Morgan just a fraction behind Ohio State’s Justin Fields in league passer efficiency.

The Gophers aren’t all offense.  The Minnesota defense is surrendering just 284 yards (13th best in the nation) and 20 points per game. But, the defense is on a roll.  After giving up 119 points in their first four games, UM has given up just 41 in the last four.

Penn State and Minnesota both have the week off to prepare for this big game.  Unfortunately, this is the same day as the Alabama-LSU game, so it will be second banana to the first of many “game of the years.”

 

Baylor is still undefeated, the final team from the Big 12 that can say that now that Oklahoma has fallen.  In order for Baylor to get to the playoffs, the Bears must run the table, and that means almost assuredly having to beat Oklahoma twice.  A split puts Baylor in either the Sugar Bowl or Cotton Bowl, if that it their only loss.

 

Out in the Pac-12, Utah and Oregon face key games this week.  Utah plays at Washington, while Oregon  plays at USC.  If both division leaders win, then they must be put in contention for a playoff spot if the Conference Championship Game winner is 12-1, while the runner-up is 11-2.

 

In the Group of 5 this week, SMU plays at Memphis, and the winner will be a co-leader with Cincinnati for the Cotton Bowl bid.  Appalachian State is still undefeated, but the Mountaineers will have to win out (including winning at South Carolina), while SMU will have to lose a game, before Appy has a chance to get to the Cotton Bowl. 

 

This Week’s Playoffs and Bowl Projections

American Athletic

SMU held on to a narrow road win against Houston, so the Mustangs are the current top Group of 5 team in line to play at home in the Cotton Bowl.  Memphis is still alive only by a fluke missed chip-shot field goal by Tulsa.  Cincinnati and Navy still have shots at that Cotton Bowl bid, while Central Florida is still around with two losses should a bunch of teams lose in November.

East Carolina, Houston, and South Florida still have minute chances to get bowl eligible, but our ratings are calling for all three to miss out.  Tulane needs one more win to become bowl eligible, and they must beat Tulsa this weekend, or the Green Wave could miss out.  Their final three games are tough.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 7

 

Atlantic Coast

Clemson should be able to coast home with a 13-0 record and Playoff bid.  The Tigers should win their final four regular season games by margins of 20 or more every week.  The Coastal Division will probably send a 5-3 team to the ACC Championship Game, and other than North Carolina looking for revenge, we don’t see any of the other contenders making the title game close.

Notre Dame caucuses with the ACC for bowl bids, and with no viable ACC team looking formidable, the Irish will most likely take the next bowl in the ACC pecking order.  This week, we are going with a Big Ten team in the Orange Bowl, so for now it looks like the Citrus Bowl for the number two team in this group.

Including Notre Dame, there is a good chance that the ACC will have 12 bowl eligible teams, meaning there will be room for two additional at-large bowl bids.  The ACC has secondary agreements with the Birmingham and Gasparilla Bowls.  The Birmingham Bowl will most definitely need an at-large team, so ACC #11 will get that bid.  The Gasparilla Bowl most likely will not need an at-large team, but that ACC #12 will still receive an at-large bid.  With the SEC obviously falling well short this year, that #12 ACC team could end up in Memphis in the Liberty Bowl.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 12 (includes Notre Dame)

 

Big 12

With Oklahoma losing, for now, we are keeping the Big 12 out of the Playoffs.  There is still a 20% chance that either Baylor or Oklahoma run the table to stay in contention at the end.  One team will have to sweep the other to pull it off.

TCU’s upset of Texas (wasn’t really an upset) puts the Horned Frogs back into position to become bowl eligible, while Texas Tech’s loss to Kansas knocks the Red Raiders out of contention for now.  We’re not ready to put Les Miles and his Jayhawks into contention, but if KU knocks off Kansas State this weekend, then we might be forced to give them some consideration.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 7

 

Big Ten

Ohio State has an excellent chance to make the Playoffs as the top seed.  On the other hand, they might have to get there by beating an undefeated Penn State or Minnesota team, and they have to play at Michigan.  Could history from repeat itself from 50 years ago?  In 1969, the best ever Ohio State team coming off a really embarrassing blowout of Michigan the year before, went to Ann Arbor to face a two-loss Michigan team.  Michigan’s defense did the near-impossible, stopping the greatest Buckeye offense in school history.  We can hardly wait.

Indiana’s win at Nebraska virtually guarantees that the Hoosiers will become bowl eligible.  Illinois’s win over Purdue puts Lovie Smith’s Illini in strong contention for a bowl bid, while Purdue played itself out of contention.

Michigan State is struggling, but the Spartans should win six or seven games to become bowl eligible, while Nebraska is hoping the return of Adrian Martinez and games with Purdue and Maryland will get the Cornhuskers to 6-6.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 10

 

Conference USA

This is a down year for CUSA, as no team is in contention for the Group of 5 NY6 Bowl bid.  In the East, Marshall is now in control of their destiny thanks to a last-play 53-yard field goal against Western Kentucky.  Florida Atlantic and WKU are the other teams still in contention, but all three of these teams will get bowl bids.

In the West, it is looking like there could be a three-way tie between Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, and UAB.  North Texas is suffering a disappointing year, and the Mean Green have been removed from bowl contention by our ratings.

We expect CUSA to have on more bowl eligible team than it has bowl contracts, and that sixth team might be headed to Shreveport, Louisiana in late December.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 6

 

Independents

(not including Notre Dame, which counts with the ACC)

This has turned into a disappointing season for Army, and we now have the Black Knights finishing under .500.  Brigham Young has an automatic bowl bid to Hawaii if the Cougars go 6-6 or better.  6-6 is the most likely record for BYU.

Liberty has not been to a bowl in its short history in FBS football, but the Flames have a secondary agreement with the Cure Bowl should the Cure Bowl need an at-large team.  This week, for the first time, we have the Cure Bowl needing an at-large team, so Hugh Freeze might be staying quite warm in Florida in December.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 2

 

Mid-American

This is a down year in the MAC, but the parity is going to lead to many more bowl eligible teams than the MAC has bowls to place them.  The MAC has five guaranteed bowl bids plus secondary agreements with two others.  One of those other secondary agreements is the Quick Lane Bowl which will not need an at-large team.  The Frisco Bowl always needs an at-large team, since there is only one tie-in, so the MAC can expect a second consecutive bowl bid there.  This year, the MAC is likely to see at least one additional team go to a bowl that has no MACtion secondary agreement.  Because our ratings this week forecast 79 bowl eligible teams, the odd team out is likely to be a 6-6 MAC team.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 8 (But only 7 will receive bids)

 

Mountain West

The Mountain West will most likely lose its secondary chance at the Hawaii and Cheez-it Bowls, which means that the league will only have five guaranteed bowl bids.  This league will most likely have seven bowl eligible teams, so two members will be headed East and South in December.

Boise State still remains in contention for the Group of 5 NY6 bid to the Cotton Bowl, but the Broncos still have three tough tests remaining.  They must beat Utah State and Wyoming and then the West Division representative in the MWC Championship Game.  For now, we have Boise winning the championship but not getting the Cotton Bowl bid.

Air Force has a chance to finish 10-2, and the Falcons could be moved out of the MWC’s bowl tie-ins in order to fly east to a more prestigious bowl, maybe replacing the SEC in a Southern bowl game.  Air Force can fill up most stadiums with Cadets, and they don’t have problems with airline reservations.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 7

 

Pac-12

Oregon and Utah still have minor chances to sneak into the Playoffs, but until teams like Clemson, Ohio State, Alabama, LSU, and Penn State start losing games, we will put the league champion in Pasadena.

This week, we remove California from bowl contention and put rival Stanford back in.  We also remove Arizona for now, so there will not be extra bowl eligible teams if our scenario plays itself out.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 7

 

Southeastern

It may be the strongest league in college football, but the SEC is going to be the league that causes multiple bowls to look elsewhere for at-large teams.  The Independence and Birmingham Bowls must already be looking at potential at-large teams.  The Belk, Liberty, and Music City Bowls might also wish to start looking around for potential at-large teams.

If both Alabama and LSU make the playoffs, and then Florida and Georgia (or Auburn) then receive Sugar and Orange Bowl bids, four teams are already removed before the meat of the bowls look for what’s left.

Because Missouri is ineligible for a bowl, and Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, and South Carolina look to be out of bowl contention, an Ole Miss Egg Bowl win over Mississippi State will likely leave the SEC with just 8 Bowl Eligible teams.  Only four teams will remain for the nine SEC spots needed to fulfill the SEC’s bowl contracts.

The Citrus, Outback, Gator, and Texas Bowls are the bowls that the SEC will need to fill.  That leaves the Belk, Music City, Liberty, Birmingham, and Independence Bowls without SEC teams.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 8

 

Sun Belt

Congratulations go out to Georgia State for joining Appy State as teams already eligible for bowls this year.  Appy State is hoping for a miracle.  If the Mountaineers win at South Carolina and finish the regular season 13-0, there is a chance they  could get the Cotton Bowl bid.  For now, we see them coming up one game short.

Louisiana is one win away from becoming bowl eligible, while Arkansas State and Georgia Southern have legitimate paths to bowl eligibility, and UL-Monroe has a path, just not as legitimate as the other two.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 5

 

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Western Michigan	Marshall
Frisco	AAC	At-large	SMU	[Miami (O)]
Cure	AAC	SBC	[Liberty]	Arkansas St.
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	Louisiana Tech	San Diego St.
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Memphis	Eastern Michigan
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Central Michigan	Louisiana
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Pac-12	Boise St.	Washington St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	Southern Miss.	Appalachian St.
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Central Florida	Florida Atlantic
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC	BYU	Navy
Independence	ACC	SEC	Florida St.	[Western Kentucky]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	North Carolina St.	Illiois
Military	ACC	AAC	Pittsburgh	Temple
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	North Carolina	Michigan St.
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Texas A&M
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	USC	Michigan
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	TCU	Stanford
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Virginia Tech	Oklahoma St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Cincinnati	Baylor
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	UAB	[Utah St.]
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	Washington	Iowa
Music City	SEC	ACC	[Air Force]	Louisville
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Georgia	Penn St.
Belk	ACC	SEC	Wake Forest	[Buffalo]
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Virginia	Arizona St.
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Iowa St.	[Duke]
Arizona	SBC	MWC	Georgia Southern	San Jose St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Kansas St.	Oregon
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Auburn	Notre Dame
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Indiana	Tennessee
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Minnesota	Utah
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	Florida
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulane	[Miami (Fla.)]
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	Kentucky	Wisconsin
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Toledo	Wyoming
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	Nebraska	Hawaii
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Ohio U	Georgia St.
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	Ohio St.	LSU
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	Alabama	Clemson
Championship	Fiesta	Peach	Ohio St.	Alabama
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

PiRate College Football Ratings: October 21, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

 

Thursday	October 24
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Houston	SMU	-8.1	-7.1	-7.5
Friday	October 25
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Colorado	USC	-11.1	-12.2	-12.3
Saturday	October 26
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Massachusetts	Connecticut	-7.6	-9.3	-7.6
Purdue	Illinois	11.4	10.5	11.8
Army	San Jose St.	13.6	11.4	13.3
Georgia St.	Troy	-2.2	-1.3	-1.6
Clemson	Boston College	33.5	30.9	33.7
Tulsa	Memphis	-12.8	-12.0	-12.5
Toledo	Eastern Michigan	3.5	3.7	3.8
Texas A&M	Mississippi St.	9.6	11.6	3.9
Temple	Central Florida	-7.0	-7.0	-6.7
Western Michigan	Bowling Green	25.8	24.9	25.5
Nebraska	Indiana	-2.1	0.0	-2.1
Buffalo	Central Michigan	5.9	5.6	6.0
Northwestern	Iowa	-9.7	-8.8	-10.7
East Carolina	South Florida	-2.0	-1.2	-2.0
Florida St.	Syracuse	3.0	3.9	3.4
Rutgers	Liberty	-2.4	-4.2	-3.9
Rice	Southern Miss.	-11.8	-8.8	-12.5
Utah	California	20.2	19.4	20.2
Wyoming	Nevada	12.9	13.5	13.7
Air Force	Utah St.	0.0	2.5	-0.1
New Mexico	Hawaii	-12.2	-10.6	-12.4
Marshall	Western Kentucky	2.8	1.2	2.1
Stanford	Arizona	7.6	6.7	7.1
Oregon	Washington St.	10.1	11.2	11.2
Fresno St.	Colorado St.	19.2	16.3	19.4
Kentucky	Missouri	-5.0	-4.0	-6.2
North Carolina	Duke	1.7	2.2	3.0
Michigan St.	Penn St.	-5.4	-5.3	-5.8
Kent St.	Miami (O)	2.2	3.7	2.5
South Alabama	Appalachian St.	-32.1	-28.5	-32.7
Georgia Southern	New Mexico St.	18.2	15.2	16.8
Iowa St.	Oklahoma St.	10.3	10.6	11.2
Middle Tennessee	Florida Int’l.	0.2	-0.8	0.1
Old Dominion	Florida Atlantic	-13.0	-12.1	-13.9
Ball St.	Ohio U	1.1	1.7	0.8
Alabama	Arkansas	43.1	39.2	44.5
Tennessee	South Carolina	-3.3	-2.0	-4.7
Kansas St.	Oklahoma	-14.6	-14.0	-14.8
Minnesota	Maryland	12.7	13.2	13.3
Navy	Tulane	-1.3	0.6	-1.2
TCU	Texas	-4.5	-2.0	-4.4
Pittsburgh	Miami (Fla.)	4.8	5.4	4.4
Louisville	Virginia	-8.1	-8.7	-8.5
Northern Illinois	Akron	22.3	21.0	23.4
Kansas	Texas Tech	-7.7	-6.7	-6.8
Charlotte	North Texas	-5.1	-4.1	-5.6
Ohio St.	Wisconsin	18.7	18.0	19.8
Arkansas St.	Texas St.	8.8	8.0	8.7
LSU	Auburn	9.0	8.4	9.4
UTEP	Louisiana Tech	-23.1	-18.4	-22.6
Michigan	Notre Dame	1.5	1.4	1.6
UCLA	Arizona St.	-6.2	-5.7	-7.7
UNLV	San Diego St.	-11.6	-12.1	-12.1

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Ohio St.	137.4	136.4	138.4	137.4
2	Alabama	135.3	132.0	136.0	134.4
3	Clemson	132.6	130.0	133.4	132.0
4	L S U	129.4	127.1	129.5	128.7
5	Oklahoma	125.8	125.1	125.7	125.5
6	Georgia	126.2	124.3	126.1	125.5
7	Auburn	123.4	121.7	123.2	122.8
8	Penn St.	122.7	121.8	122.8	122.5
9	Wisconsin	121.7	121.4	121.7	121.6
10	Florida	122.7	119.8	122.3	121.6
11	Utah	121.6	120.4	122.2	121.4
12	Notre Dame	120.5	118.8	120.4	119.9
13	Oregon	119.1	119.2	120.5	119.6
14	Michigan	118.9	117.2	119.0	118.4
15	Iowa	117.7	115.8	117.5	117.0
16	Iowa St.	115.9	116.6	116.2	116.2
17	Texas A&M	116.7	115.0	115.3	115.7
18	Washington	114.0	113.7	115.0	114.2
19	Minnesota	114.2	113.9	113.7	113.9
20	Baylor	114.0	114.2	113.6	113.9
21	Michigan St.	114.3	113.5	114.0	113.9
22	Missouri	114.2	111.8	114.0	113.3
23	South Carolina	113.6	111.9	113.4	113.0
24	Texas	111.7	111.9	111.9	111.8
25	Washington St.	112.0	111.1	112.3	111.8
26	U S C	109.9	110.7	110.6	110.4
27	Central Florida	110.4	109.6	111.0	110.3
28	Mississippi St.	110.1	106.4	114.5	110.3
29	Virginia	108.8	109.0	108.9	108.9
30	Oklahoma St.	108.6	109.0	108.0	108.5
31	Arizona St.	108.4	107.7	109.2	108.5
32	Appalachian St.	108.8	107.8	108.6	108.4
33	Cincinnati	108.3	107.1	108.9	108.1
34	Kansas St.	108.3	108.1	107.9	108.1
35	Indiana	108.5	107.2	107.9	107.9
36	SMU	107.2	107.0	108.5	107.6
37	Memphis	106.8	106.8	107.5	107.0
38	Pittsburgh	106.6	106.4	106.9	106.6
39	Tennessee	107.3	106.9	105.7	106.6
40	Purdue	106.8	106.6	106.3	106.6
41	T C U	105.2	108.0	105.5	106.2
42	Boise St.	106.1	105.8	106.4	106.1
43	North Carolina	105.7	105.7	106.9	106.1
44	Texas Tech	105.8	106.0	105.0	105.6
45	Duke	105.6	104.9	105.3	105.3
46	Kentucky	106.2	104.8	104.8	105.3
47	Utah St.	104.9	104.0	105.9	104.9
48	Miami (Fla.)	104.8	104.1	105.5	104.8
49	Ole Miss	105.2	104.2	104.9	104.8
50	Northwestern	105.4	104.5	104.3	104.7
51	Florida St.	104.5	104.6	104.5	104.6
52	California	104.3	104.0	105.0	104.4
53	Syracuse	104.5	103.8	104.1	104.1
54	Maryland	104.5	103.7	103.3	103.8
55	Nebraska	103.4	104.2	102.8	103.5
56	Wake Forest	103.5	102.9	103.8	103.4
57	Stanford	103.6	102.7	103.1	103.1
58	Air Force	101.9	103.4	102.8	102.7
59	Boston College	102.2	102.1	102.7	102.3
60	West Virginia	102.1	101.5	101.2	101.6
61	Virginia Tech	101.0	101.1	101.4	101.2
62	Temple	100.8	100.1	101.8	100.9
63	Louisiana	100.9	101.0	100.8	100.9
64	Tulane	99.8	100.5	100.4	100.2
65	Fresno St.	99.0	99.8	99.5	99.4
66	BYU	99.3	99.3	99.3	99.3
67	North Carolina St.	99.3	99.0	99.4	99.2
68	Arizona	99.0	99.0	98.9	99.0
69	U C L A	99.2	99.0	98.5	98.9
70	San Diego St.	98.3	100.1	98.3	98.9
71	Illinois	98.3	99.1	97.5	98.3
72	Wyoming	97.3	99.4	97.6	98.1
73	Houston	96.6	97.5	98.5	97.5
74	Oregon St.	97.3	98.3	96.8	97.5
75	Louisville	97.7	97.3	97.4	97.4
76	Western Michigan	97.5	96.4	97.2	97.0
77	Navy	95.5	98.1	96.2	96.6
78	Vanderbilt	97.0	95.7	95.7	96.1
79	Hawaii	95.7	97.0	94.9	95.9
80	Army	96.0	95.9	95.2	95.7
81	Colorado	95.9	95.5	95.4	95.6
82	Kansas	95.2	96.2	95.2	95.5
83	Arkansas	95.2	95.7	94.5	95.2
84	Georgia Tech	94.6	92.9	95.0	94.2
85	Troy	94.3	94.8	93.4	94.2
86	Louisiana Tech	94.0	94.0	94.3	94.1
87	Southern Miss.	94.2	92.6	94.3	93.7
88	Georgia Southern	93.3	92.7	92.2	92.8
89	Ohio	92.9	91.9	93.3	92.7
90	Florida Atlantic	91.9	91.4	92.8	92.0
91	Northern Illinois	92.2	91.1	92.3	91.9
92	Tulsa	91.0	91.8	92.0	91.6
93	Western Kentucky	90.6	91.8	92.4	91.6
94	Florida Int’l.	91.4	91.4	91.6	91.5
95	Ball St.	91.5	91.1	91.6	91.4
96	North Texas	91.2	90.5	91.7	91.1
97	U A B	89.9	91.8	90.8	90.9
98	Marshall	90.4	90.0	91.5	90.6
99	Georgia St.	89.6	91.0	89.3	90.0
100	Buffalo	89.3	89.8	90.4	89.8
101	Arkansas St.	89.7	89.8	89.2	89.6
102	Liberty	89.0	90.3	89.3	89.5
103	Middle Tennessee	89.1	88.1	89.2	88.8
104	South Florida	88.3	89.3	88.5	88.7
105	Toledo	88.3	88.6	89.0	88.6
106	Kent St.	88.2	88.2	88.7	88.4
107	Miami (Ohio)	88.5	87.0	88.7	88.1
108	Nevada	87.5	88.9	86.9	87.8
109	Eastern Michigan	87.2	87.4	87.7	87.5
110	Coastal Carolina	86.8	87.9	86.2	87.0
111	Central Michigan	85.9	86.7	86.9	86.5
112	Louisiana-Monroe	85.8	86.5	85.6	86.0
113	San Jose St.	85.4	87.5	85.0	86.0
114	U N L V	84.2	85.6	83.7	84.5
115	East Carolina	83.8	85.6	84.0	84.5
116	Colorado St.	82.8	86.6	83.1	84.2
117	Charlotte	83.6	83.9	83.6	83.7
118	Texas St.	83.4	84.2	83.0	83.5
119	Rutgers	84.1	83.6	82.9	83.5
120	New Mexico	80.0	82.8	79.0	80.6
121	Rice	79.9	81.3	79.2	80.2
122	New Mexico St.	78.2	80.6	78.5	79.1
123	Old Dominion	76.4	76.8	76.4	76.5
124	Texas-San Antonio	74.5	76.8	74.3	75.2
125	South Alabama	74.2	76.8	73.3	74.8
126	Bowling Green	74.1	74.0	74.2	74.1
127	Connecticut	71.9	75.4	70.8	72.7
128	Akron	72.5	72.6	71.4	72.1
129	U T E P	68.4	73.1	69.2	70.2
130	Massachusetts	62.3	64.1	61.2	62.5

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	110.4	109.6	111.0	110.3	2-1	5-2
Cincinnati	108.3	107.1	108.9	108.1	3-0	6-1
Temple	100.8	100.1	101.8	100.9	2-1	5-2
South Florida	88.3	89.3	88.5	88.7	1-2	3-4
East Carolina	83.8	85.6	84.0	84.5	0-3	3-4
Connecticut	71.9	75.4	70.8	72.7	0-4	1-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
SMU	107.2	107.0	108.5	107.6	3-0	7-0
Memphis	106.8	106.8	107.5	107.0	2-1	6-1
Tulane	99.8	100.5	100.4	100.2	2-1	5-2
Houston	96.6	97.5	98.5	97.5	1-2	3-4
Navy	95.5	98.1	96.2	96.6	3-1	5-1
Tulsa	91.0	91.8	92.0	91.6	0-3	2-5
AAC Averages	96.7	97.4	97.3	97.1
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	132.6	130.0	133.4	132.0	5-0	7-0
Florida St.	104.5	104.6	104.5	104.6	2-3	3-4
Syracuse	104.5	103.8	104.1	104.1	0-3	3-4
Wake Forest	103.5	102.9	103.8	103.4	2-1	6-1
Boston College	102.2	102.1	102.7	102.3	2-2	4-3
North Carolina St.	99.3	99.0	99.4	99.2	1-2	4-3
Louisville	97.7	97.3	97.4	97.4	2-2	4-3
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Virginia	108.8	109.0	108.9	108.9	3-1	5-2
Pittsburgh	106.6	106.4	106.9	106.6	2-1	5-2
North Carolina	105.7	105.7	106.9	106.1	2-2	3-4
Duke	105.6	104.9	105.3	105.3	2-2	4-3
Miami (Fla.)	104.8	104.1	105.5	104.8	1-3	3-4
Virginia Tech	101.0	101.1	101.4	101.2	3-2	5-2
Georgia Tech	94.6	92.9	95.0	94.2	1-3	2-5
ACC Averages	105.1	104.6	105.4	105.0
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	125.8	125.1	125.7	125.5	4-0	7-0
Iowa St.	115.9	116.6	116.2	116.2	3-1	5-2
Baylor	114.0	114.2	113.6	113.9	4-0	7-0
Texas	111.7	111.9	111.9	111.8	3-1	5-2
Oklahoma St.	108.6	109.0	108.0	108.5	1-3	4-3
Kansas St.	108.3	108.1	107.9	108.1	1-2	4-2
T C U	105.2	108.0	105.5	106.2	1-2	3-3
Texas Tech	105.8	106.0	105.0	105.6	1-3	3-4
West Virginia	102.1	101.5	101.2	101.6	1-3	3-4
Kansas	95.2	96.2	95.2	95.5	0-4	2-5
Big 12 Averages	109.3	109.7	109.0	109.3
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	137.4	136.4	138.4	137.4	4-0	7-0
Penn St.	122.7	121.8	122.8	122.5	4-0	7-0
Michigan	118.9	117.2	119.0	118.4	3-2	5-2
Michigan St.	114.3	113.5	114.0	113.9	2-2	4-3
Indiana	108.5	107.2	107.9	107.9	2-2	5-2
Maryland	104.5	103.7	103.3	103.8	1-3	3-4
Rutgers	84.1	83.6	82.9	83.5	0-5	1-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	121.7	121.4	121.7	121.6	3-1	6-1
Iowa	117.7	115.8	117.5	117.0	2-2	5-2
Minnesota	114.2	113.9	113.7	113.9	4-0	7-0
Purdue	106.8	106.6	106.3	106.6	1-3	2-5
Northwestern	105.4	104.5	104.3	104.7	0-4	1-5
Nebraska	103.4	104.2	102.8	103.5	2-2	4-3
Illinois	98.3	99.1	97.5	98.3	1-3	3-4
Big Ten Averages	111.3	110.6	110.9	110.9
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	91.9	91.4	92.8	92.0	2-1	4-3
Western Kentucky	90.6	91.8	92.4	91.6	4-0	5-2
Florida Int’l.	91.4	91.4	91.6	91.5	2-2	4-3
Marshall	90.4	90.0	91.5	90.6	2-1	4-3
Middle Tennessee	89.1	88.1	89.2	88.8	1-2	2-5
Charlotte	83.6	83.9	83.6	83.7	0-3	2-5
Old Dominion	76.4	76.8	76.4	76.5	0-3	1-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Louisiana Tech	94.0	94.0	94.3	94.1	3-0	6-1
Southern Miss.	94.2	92.6	94.3	93.7	2-1	4-3
North Texas	91.2	90.5	91.7	91.1	2-1	3-4
U A B	89.9	91.8	90.8	90.9	3-1	6-1
Rice	79.9	81.3	79.2	80.2	0-3	0-7
Texas-San Antonio	74.5	76.8	74.3	75.2	2-2	3-4
U T E P	68.4	73.1	69.2	70.2	0-3	1-5
CUSA Averages	86.1	86.7	86.5	86.4
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	120.5	118.8	120.4	119.9	x	5-1
BYU	99.3	99.3	99.3	99.3	x	3-4
Army	96.0	95.9	95.2	95.7	x	3-4
Liberty	89.0	90.3	89.3	89.5	x	5-2
New Mexico St.	78.2	80.6	78.5	79.1	x	0-7
Massachusetts	62.3	64.1	61.2	62.5	x	1-6
Indep. Averages	90.9	91.5	90.6	91.0
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio	92.9	91.9	93.3	92.7	2-1	3-4
Buffalo	89.3	89.8	90.4	89.8	1-2	3-4
Kent St.	88.2	88.2	88.7	88.4	2-1	3-4
Miami (Ohio)	88.5	87.0	88.7	88.1	2-1	3-4
Bowling Green	74.1	74.0	74.2	74.1	1-2	2-5
Akron	72.5	72.6	71.4	72.1	0-3	0-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Western Michigan	97.5	96.4	97.2	97.0	2-2	4-4
Northern Illinois	92.2	91.1	92.3	91.9	1-2	2-5
Ball St.	91.5	91.1	91.6	91.4	3-0	4-3
Toledo	88.3	88.6	89.0	88.6	1-2	4-3
Eastern Michigan	87.2	87.4	87.7	87.5	1-2	4-3
Central Michigan	85.9	86.7	86.9	86.5	3-1	5-3
MAC Averages	87.3	87.1	87.6	87.3
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	106.1	105.8	106.4	106.1	3-0	6-1
Utah St.	104.9	104.0	105.9	104.9	3-0	4-2
Air Force	101.9	103.4	102.8	102.7	3-1	5-2
Wyoming	97.3	99.4	97.6	98.1	2-1	5-2
Colorado St.	82.8	86.6	83.1	84.2	1-2	2-5
New Mexico	80.0	82.8	79.0	80.6	0-3	2-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	99.0	99.8	99.5	99.4	1-1	3-3
San Diego St.	98.3	100.1	98.3	98.9	3-1	6-1
Hawaii	95.7	97.0	94.9	95.9	1-2	4-3
Nevada	87.5	88.9	86.9	87.8	1-2	4-3
San Jose St.	85.4	87.5	85.0	86.0	1-3	3-4
U N L V	84.2	85.6	83.7	84.5	1-3	2-5
MWC Averages	93.6	95.1	93.6	94.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Oregon	119.1	119.2	120.5	119.6	4-0	6-1
Washington	114.0	113.7	115.0	114.2	2-3	5-3
Washington St.	112.0	111.1	112.3	111.8	1-3	4-3
California	104.3	104.0	105.0	104.4	1-3	4-3
Stanford	103.6	102.7	103.1	103.1	2-3	3-4
Oregon St.	97.3	98.3	96.8	97.5	2-2	3-4
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	121.6	120.4	122.2	121.4	3-1	6-1
U S C	109.9	110.7	110.6	110.4	3-1	4-3
Arizona St.	108.4	107.7	109.2	108.5	2-2	5-2
Arizona	99.0	99.0	98.9	99.0	2-2	4-3
U C L A	99.2	99.0	98.5	98.9	2-2	2-5
Colorado	95.9	95.5	95.4	95.6	1-3	3-4
Pac-12 Averages	107.0	106.8	107.3	107.0
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	126.2	124.3	126.1	125.5	3-1	6-1
Florida	122.7	119.8	122.3	121.6	5-1	7-1
Missouri	114.2	111.8	114.0	113.3	2-1	5-2
South Carolina	113.6	111.9	113.4	113.0	2-3	3-4
Tennessee	107.3	106.9	105.7	106.6	1-3	2-5
Kentucky	106.2	104.8	104.8	105.3	1-4	3-4
Vanderbilt	97.0	95.7	95.7	96.1	1-3	2-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	135.3	132.0	136.0	134.4	4-0	7-0
L S U	129.4	127.1	129.5	128.7	3-0	7-0
Auburn	123.4	121.7	123.2	122.8	3-1	6-1
Texas A&M	116.7	115.0	115.3	115.7	2-2	4-3
Mississippi St.	110.1	106.4	114.5	110.3	1-3	3-4
Ole Miss	105.2	104.2	104.9	104.8	2-3	3-5
Arkansas	95.2	95.7	94.5	95.2	0-4	2-5
SEC Averages	114.5	112.7	114.3	113.8
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	108.8	107.8	108.6	108.4	3-0	6-0
Troy	94.3	94.8	93.4	94.2	1-1	3-3
Georgia Southern	93.3	92.7	92.2	92.8	2-1	3-3
Georgia St.	89.6	91.0	89.3	90.0	2-1	5-2
Coastal Carolina	86.8	87.9	86.2	87.0	0-3	3-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	100.9	101.0	100.8	100.9	2-1	5-2
Arkansas St.	89.7	89.8	89.2	89.6	1-2	3-4
Louisiana-Monroe	85.8	86.5	85.6	86.0	2-1	3-4
Texas St.	83.4	84.2	83.0	83.5	1-1	2-4
South Alabama	74.2	76.8	73.3	74.8	0-3	1-6
SBC Averages	90.7	91.3	90.2	90.7

 

 

Conference Ratings

 

#	League	Average
1	Southeastern	113.8
2	Big Ten	110.9
3	Big 12	109.3
4	Pac-12	107.0
5	Atlantic Coast	105.0
6	American	97.1
7	Mountain West	94.1
8	Independents	91.0
9	Sun Belt	90.7
10	Mid-American	87.3
11	Conference USA	86.4

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1	SMU
2	Appalachian St.
3	Cincinnati
4	Navy
5	Boise St.

 

 

This Week’s Bowl and Playoff Projections

 

There was considerable shuffling of the bowl projections this week, with these teams being affected the most (by alphabetical conference).

AAC: With Boise St. losing, the likelihood of the AAC Champion making it to the Cotton Bowl went way up.  SMU is the leader at the moment, but the Mustangs will have to win at Memphis more than likely if they are to stay home for a NY6 Bowl.  Memphis has the most favorable schedule, while Cincinnati and Navy are still in the race.

ACC: Clemson cannot afford to lose a game, and most every so-called college football expert believes this is so.  There is no strong number two in this league, but Notre Dame caucuses here for bowl invitation, so the Irish look like a sure thing to garner one of the NY6 Bowl bids.  Boston College, Louisville,  and Syracuse appear to be on the outside looking in from the Atlantic Division, while Miami now drops into our predicted 5-7 teams and falls out of the bowl picture for now.  The Coastal is still a wide open race, but we think Pittsburgh has the best chance to become fodder for Clemson in the Title Game.

Big 12: Baylor keeps surprising a lot of folks, as even the folks in Nevada were a bit surprised at how they handles Oklahoma State in Stillwater.  Can the Bears beat Oklahoma, or to put it more accurately beat them once in two tries?  If Oklahoma runs the table, the Sooners are in the Playoffs.  If Baylor runs the table, they will most likely make the playoffs.  If they split two games, then the LSU-Alabama loser at 11-1 will be in the Playoffs.  Texas and Iowa State appear to be jostling for third place as of now.  Meanwhile, a group that included Oklahoma State, Kansas State, TCU, and Texas Tech all have shots a bowl eligibility, and we believe three of the four will make it.

Big Ten: Wisconsin’s loss to Illinois, makes the Penn State-Ohio State game in Columbus a Playoff Qualifier.  The winner of that game has a great shot at being 13-0 and Playoff bound.  Michigan and Michigan State are now fighting it out for third in the East, while Indiana virtually locked up a fifth bowl eligible spot in the division.  Minnesota still gets no respect, and the Gophers will host Penn State in two weeks with a chance to get that respect.  If they upset the Nittany Lions, Roses could be in Minnesota’s future for the first time since January 1, 1962.  With the Big Ten having the most specific bowl rules, it appears that in order to keep teams out of making repeat bowl appearances, some teams with two fewer wins may jump over others for more prestigious bowls.

Conference USA: This league has no chance to earn the NY6 Bowl bid as too many teams would have to lose before a Louisiana Tech or UAB would even enter the contention picture.  Marshall will host Western Kentucky this weekend, and the winner will just about wrap up the East Division flag.  The West is still a four-team mess, but Louisiana Tech has the upper hand.  UAB hosts the Bulldogs in November, and the winner of that game will most likely take the West Division crown.

Independents: Since Notre Dame figures in the ACC bowl, we don’t include them here.  The big change here was removing Army from bowl contention and placing BYU back into bowl contention.  If BYU goes 6-6 or better, they are guaranteed the Hawaii Bowl bid.  Keep an eye on Liberty.  If Liberty can win at Rutgers this Saturday, the Flames are looking at an eight-win season.  Liberty has a secondary bowl agreement with the Cure, but we see that bowl being filled by the regular tie-ins.  Still, this school could make its first bowl appearance, because a lot of Southern bowls are going to need at-large teams.

MAC: This conference uses the work “MACtion” to describe its excitement, but Wacky MAC might be a more accurate theme in the Midwest.  Almost all the craziness is in the West Division, where Ball State has come from out of nowhere to take a commanding lead in the division.  The Cardinals were picked to finish last or second to last by most preseason predictions.  The other team picked to finish last or second to last may be chief competition.  Central Michigan plays Ball State in Muncie in November, and the winner is probably the Division champion.  In the East, Ohio won a big game over Kent State this past Saturday, and the Bobcats need only beat Buffalo to guarantee another East Division crown.  Mainstays at the top, Western Michigan and Toledo, are hurting right now, and Toledo must get quarterback Mitchell Guadagni back from injury, as they have no offense without him.

Mountain West: Boise State is now on the outside looking in for the Cotton Bowl.  The Broncos have two or three more games where the opponent could be talented enough to pin another loss on them.  Utah State hosts BSU in November, and if quarterback Jordan Love is 100% healthy, the Aggies might be the better team.  With Hawaii losing at home to Air Force, the San Diego State-Fresno State winner is going to take the West Division title.  This league will have one or two extra teams to fill at-large bowls, and we believe one of the two will get in.  Wyoming did not get an invitation last year, so the Cowboys could be heading Southeast of Laramie.

Pac-12: Oregon is one play away from being squarely in the Playoff picture, but then the Donner Party was just one mountain away from getting to the Pacific Coast safely.  The Ducks may have seen their hopes dashed by an Auburn snowstorm.  Utah’s loss to USC prevents the Utes from having a chance to make it to the Playoffs.  The only unsure thing in this conference is if California can get to 6-6 without Chase Garbers at QB.

SEC: Georgia looks quite vulnerable all of a sudden.  If the Bulldogs couldn’t pass or score versus South Carolina and Kentucky, how will they do so against Florida and Auburn.  Short of a major quick fix, it would not be shocking if Georgia lost twice more, giving Florida the East title.  With Missouri ineligible, that leaves South Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt fighting for two bowl bids.  USC and Vandy have too much to conquer to get to six wins, while Kentucky may have to beat rival Louisville to make it to bowl eligibility.  Tennessee has four winnable games left on their schedule, so for now, we are picking the Vols to sneak in at 6-6.  In the West, we believe Mississippi State is in big trouble and likely headed to 5-7 with Ole Miss.  Arkansas is the #14 team in the league and may finish 0-8.  The SEC is going to come up four to six bowl spots short.

Sunbelt: Appalachian State probably has the best overall shot of going 13-0 from a Group of 5 Conference, but can the Mountaineers jump over a 12-1 AAC champion?  Aside from that, the other news is that this league will have extra bowl eligible teams and should see at least one at-large bid come to the league.

 

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Central Michigan	Marshall
Frisco	AAC	At-large	SMU	[Toledo]
Cure	AAC	SBC	East Carolina	Arkansas St.
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	Louisiana Tech	Fresno St.
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Central Florida	Ball St.
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Western Michigan	Georgia St.
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Pac-12	Boise St.	Washington St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	Southern Miss.	Appalachian St.
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Cincinnati	Florida Atlantic
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC	BYU	Navy
Independence	ACC	SEC	Florida St.	[UAB]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	North Carolina	Indiana
Military	ACC	AAC	Duke	Temple
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	North Carolina St.	Purdue
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	Texas A&M
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	Washington	Iowa
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas Tech	Arizona
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Pittsburgh	Iowa St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Memphis	Penn St.
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	North Texas	[Hawaii]
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	Arizona St.	Michigan
Music City	SEC	ACC	[Wyoming]	Wake Forest
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Notre Dame	Florida
Belk	ACC	SEC	Virginia Tech	Kentucky
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Virginia	USC
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Kansas St.	[Liberty]
Arizona	SBC	MWC	Louisiana	San Diego St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas	Utah
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Georgia	Wisconsin
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Michigan St.	Auburn
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Minnesota	Oregon
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	LSU
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulane	[Troy]
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	Tennessee	Nebraska
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Eastern Michigan	Utah St.
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	[Western Ky.]	Air Force
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Ohio U	Georgia Southern
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	Ohio St.	Oklahoma
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	Alabama	Clemson
Championship	Fiesta	Peach	Ohio St.	Alabama

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate College Football Ratings: October 7, 2019

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