The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 11, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Football–Playoffs & Bowls

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:22 am

Post-Season Games

Team 1Team 2PiRateMeanBias
Miami (O)UAB-8.6-6.7-8.2
UTSATroy3.82.52.6
CincinnatiLouisville-4.8-5.5-4.7
SMUBYU-2.5-2.0-2.3
Washington St.Fresno St.1.61.91.6
RiceSouthern Miss.-9.3-10.1-10.9
FloridaOregon St.-6.3-5.0-6.9
North TexasBoise St.-10.3-10.2-9.6
MarshallConnecticut10.610.413.0
Eastern MichiganSan Jose St.-4.4-3.6-3.9
LibertyToledo1.11.00.8
Western KentuckySouth Alabama3.62.82.9
BaylorAir Force12.811.711.4
LouisianaHouston-8.0-6.7-6.1
Wake ForestMissouri3.73.23.6
Middle TennesseeSan Diego St.-9.1-8.1-9.3
Bowling GreenNew Mexico St.5.33.45.7
Georgia SouthernBuffalo1.70.41.8
MemphisUtah St.9.69.79.0
East CarolinaCoastal Carolina9.17.98.5
WisconsinOklahoma St.2.63.62.3
Central FloridaDuke-0.1-1.50.5
KansasArkansas-8.7-8.9-10.6
OregonNorth Carolina9.89.711.2
Ole MissTexas Tech3.42.91.9
MinnesotaSyracuse10.410.611.3
Florida St.Oklahoma10.911.611.2
TexasWashington6.85.64.7
MarylandNorth Carolina St.-1.6-2.1-1.7
PittsburghUCLA-2.3-3.0-5.1
OhioWyoming6.06.76.8
TennesseeClemson0.71.11.5
IowaKentucky4.33.12.0
AlabamaKansas St.6.56.67.3
Notre DameSouth Carolina3.82.93.7
GeorgiaOhio St.3.94.34.9
MichiganTCU7.68.38.0
Mississippi St.Illinois0.4-1.40.0
LSUPurdue3.43.85.2
USCTulane4.24.44.4
UtahPenn St.-3.6-4.0-2.3

Bowl Schedule

DayDateBowlTime ETNetworkTeamTeam
FriD 16Bahamas11:30 AMESPNMiami (O)UAB
Cure3:00 PMESPNUTSATroy
SatD 17Fenway11:00 AMESPNCincinnatiLouisville
New Mexico2:15 PMESPNSMUBYU
L.A.3:30 PMABCWashington St.Fresno St.
Lending Tree5:45 PMESPNRiceSouthern Miss.
Las Vegas7:30 PMABCFloridaOregon St.
Frisco9:15 PMESPNNorth TexasBoise St.
MonD 19Myrtle Beach2:30 PMESPNMarshallConnecticut
TueD 20Famous Idaho Potato3:30 PMESPNEastern MichiganSan Jose St.
Boca Raton7:30 PMESPNLibertyToledo
WedD 21New Orleans9:00 PMESPNWestern KentuckySouth Alabama
ThuD 22Armed Forces7:30 PMESPNBaylorAir Force
FriD 23Independence3:00 PMESPNLouisianaHouston
Gasparilla6:30 PMESPNWake ForestMissouri
SatD 24Hawaii8:00 PMESPNMiddle TennesseeSan Diego St.
MonD 26Quick Lane2:30 PMESPNBowling GreenNew Mexico St.
TueD 27Camellia12:00 PMESPNGeorgia SouthernBuffalo
First Responder3:15 PMESPNMemphisUtah St.
Birmingham6:45 PMESPNEast CarolinaCoastal Carolina
Guaranteed Rate10:15 PMESPNWisconsinOklahoma St.
WedD 28Military2:00 PMESPNCentral FloridaDuke
Liberty5:30 PMESPNKansasArkansas
Holiday8:00 PMFoxOregonNorth Carolina
Texas9:00 PMESPNOle MissTexas Tech
ThuD 29Pinstripe2:00 PMESPNMinnesotaSyracuse
Cheez-It5:30 PMESPNFlorida St.Oklahoma
Alamo9:00 PMESPNTexasWashington
FriD 30Duke’s Mayo12:00 PMESPNMarylandNorth Carolina St.
Tony the Tiger2:00 PMCBSPittsburghUCLA
Arizona4:30 PMBarstoolOhioWyoming
Orange8:00 PMESPNTennesseeClemson
SatD 31Music City12:00 PMABCIowaKentucky
Sugar12:00 PMESPNAlabamaKansas St.
TaxSlayer3:30 PMESPNNotre DameSouth Carolina
Fiesta4:00 PMESPNMichiganTCU
Peach8:00 PMESPNGeorgiaOhio St.
MonJ 2Reliaquest12:00 PMESPN2Mississippi St.Illinois
Citrus1:00 PMABCLSUPurdue
Cotton1:00 PMESPNUSCTulane
Rose5:00 PMESPNUtahPenn St.

December 3, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Football–December 4, 2022

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:29 pm

This Week’s Game

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
ArmyNavy0.31.11.1

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#TeamRating
1Georgia132.4
2Michigan130.2
3Ohio St.129.5
4Alabama128.6
5Penn St.124.1
6Tennessee123.1
7T C U121.7
8Utah120.8
9Kansas St.119.8
10Clemson119.5
11Texas119.3
12Florida St.119.0
13L S U116.1
14Oregon115.8
15Minnesota115.5
16Notre Dame115.0
17Illinois114.5
18Mississippi St.114.1
19Oregon St.113.7
20Washington113.6
21Baylor113.4
22Iowa113.0
23U S C112.7
24Arkansas112.7
25Wisconsin112.5
26Ole Miss112.4
27Oklahoma112.2
28Louisville112.1
29Purdue111.9
30Maryland111.2
31Pittsburgh111.0
32U C L A111.0
33Florida110.1
34Kentucky109.9
35Texas Tech109.6
36South Carolina109.1
37NC State108.9
38Texas A&M108.8
39Tulane108.4
40Michigan St.108.4
41Wake Forest107.7
42Cincinnati107.3
43Oklahoma St.107.2
44Auburn106.9
45Washington St.106.0
46North Carolina105.5
47Iowa St.104.6
48West Virginia104.4
49Fresno St.104.3
50Missouri104.3
51UCF103.9
52Syracuse103.8
53Boise St.103.7
54Nebraska103.6
55BYU103.5
56Air Force102.4
57Houston102.0
58James Madison101.8
59Duke101.8
60Kansas101.8
61U T S A101.7
62SMU101.2
63Arizona St.99.8
64Memphis99.6
65East Carolina99.2
66W. Kentucky98.7
67Troy98.7
68Arizona98.5
69Miami (Fla.)98.4
70Indiana98.4
71Appalachian St.97.9
72California97.8
73U A B97.5
74Army96.9
75Marshall96.7
76Stanford96.7
77Liberty96.3
78Georgia St.96.1
79Navy96.1
80South Alabama95.6
81Louisiana95.6
82Toledo95.3
83Georgia Tech95.3
84Virginia95.2
85San Diego St.94.8
86Ohio94.7
87Virginia Tech94.7
88Northwestern94.5
89Tulsa94.5
90Rutgers93.8
91Vanderbilt93.4
92San Jose St.93.1
93Boston College92.8
94North Texas92.1
95Ga. Southern90.8
96Coastal Carolina90.7
97Utah St.90.2
98Kent St.90.1
99Miami (Ohio)89.7
100Buffalo89.5
101Florida Atlantic89.3
102Eastern Mich.89.1
103Western Mich.88.9
104Southern Miss.88.9
105Central Mich.88.8
106Wyoming88.3
107USF88.0
108U T E P87.3
109Old Dominion87.1
110Ball St.86.5
111N. Illinois86.2
112Middle Tennessee85.9
113U N L V85.8
114Connecticut85.4
115Bowling Green84.5
116Colorado St.83.1
117UL-Monroe82.8
118Temple82.7
119Colorado81.6
120Texas St.81.3
121Akron80.7
122Nevada79.7
123New Mexico St.79.7
124Arkansas St.79.7
125Louisiana Tech79.0
126Rice78.8
127Hawaii76.3
128Charlotte75.7
129New Mexico75.5
130Massachusetts71.1
131Florida Int’l.65.1

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Tulane108.2108.1108.9108.4
Cincinnati107.6106.7107.5107.3
UCF103.8104.2103.8103.9
Houston102.4101.6102.0102.0
SMU101.4100.7101.4101.2
Memphis99.699.899.499.6
East Carolina99.198.899.699.2
Navy96.296.096.196.1
Tulsa94.994.294.394.5
USF88.687.787.788.0
Temple82.483.682.082.7

AAC98.698.398.498.4

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Clemson119.5119.3119.7119.5
Florida St.119.0118.8119.1119.0
Louisville112.3112.0112.0112.1
NC State109.4108.8108.4108.9
Wake Forest108.0107.7107.5107.7
Syracuse104.6103.6103.1103.8
Boston College93.293.491.892.8

Coastal Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Pittsburgh111.8111.0110.3111.0
North Carolina106.1105.7104.8105.5
Duke101.4103.1100.8101.8
Miami (Fla.)99.298.397.798.4
Georgia Tech95.895.694.595.3
Virginia95.895.994.095.2
Virginia Tech95.195.393.794.7

ACC105.1104.9104.1104.7

Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
T C U122.3121.1121.8121.7
Kansas St.120.2119.2119.9119.8
Texas119.9119.1118.8119.3
Baylor114.1112.8113.2113.4
Oklahoma112.6111.7112.4112.2
Texas Tech109.8108.9110.2109.6
Oklahoma St.108.0106.5107.0107.2
Iowa St.105.1104.4104.4104.6
West Virginia104.8104.2104.2104.4
Kansas102.9101.5101.0101.8

Big 12112.0110.9111.3111.4

Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Michigan130.4129.9130.3130.2
Ohio St.130.1128.9129.6129.5
Penn St.124.2124.1124.1124.1
Maryland111.6111.3110.7111.2
Michigan St.109.5108.2107.4108.4
Indiana99.398.597.498.4
Rutgers95.093.992.493.8

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Minnesota115.9115.2115.4115.5
Illinois114.6115.0113.9114.5
Iowa113.8112.9112.3113.0
Wisconsin113.1112.6111.8112.5
Purdue112.9112.0110.9111.9
Nebraska104.1103.9103.0103.6
Northwestern94.895.293.594.5

Big Ten112.1111.5110.9111.5

Conference USA
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
U T S A101.5101.2102.2101.7
W. Kentucky98.498.399.498.7
U A B97.497.297.997.5
North Texas91.891.693.092.1
Florida Atlantic89.190.088.989.3
U T E P87.287.387.287.3
Middle Tennessee85.786.385.785.9
Louisiana Tech78.979.778.479.0
Rice79.078.978.578.8
Charlotte75.476.275.575.7
Florida Int’l.64.966.564.065.1

CUSA86.386.786.486.5

FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Notre Dame115.4114.3115.4115.0
BYU103.9102.7103.8103.5
Army96.597.197.296.9
Liberty95.996.796.296.3
Connecticut85.386.584.485.4
New Mexico St.79.181.079.079.7
Massachusetts71.272.169.971.1

Independents92.592.992.392.5

Mid-American Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio93.595.595.294.7
Buffalo88.690.389.789.5
Kent St.89.591.189.890.1
Miami (Ohio)88.890.589.889.7
Bowling Green84.484.584.784.5
Akron80.481.480.480.7

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Toledo94.895.695.495.3
Eastern Mich.88.589.589.289.1
Western Mich.88.289.389.288.9
Central Mich.87.889.289.488.8
Ball St.85.887.286.786.5
N. Illinois86.086.586.186.2

MAC88.089.288.888.7

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Boise St.103.7103.3104.1103.7
Air Force102.2102.2102.9102.4
Utah St.90.090.190.490.2
Wyoming87.488.988.588.3
Colorado St.82.683.583.383.1
New Mexico76.175.874.675.5

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Fresno St.104.0104.0105.0104.3
San Diego St.94.894.495.094.8
San Jose St.92.993.193.293.1
U N L V86.185.086.185.8
Nevada79.580.579.279.7
Hawaii75.576.676.876.3

MWC89.689.889.989.8

Pac-12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Utah120.6120.1121.8120.8
Oregon115.9115.4116.0115.8
Oregon St.113.4113.1114.5113.7
Washington113.1113.4114.2113.6
U S C112.4112.5113.3112.7
U C L A110.6110.5111.8111.0
Washington St.105.6105.9106.5106.0
Arizona St.100.099.4100.199.8
Arizona98.398.498.998.5
California97.597.598.397.8
Stanford97.895.996.496.7
Colorado82.481.081.581.6

Pac-12105.6105.3106.1105.7

Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Georgia132.5131.7133.0132.4
Tennessee122.7122.9123.7123.1
Florida109.6110.7110.1110.1
Kentucky109.5109.8110.3109.9
South Carolina109.1108.9109.2109.1
Missouri104.3104.5103.9104.3
Vanderbilt93.394.092.793.4

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Alabama128.7127.8129.2128.6
L S U116.3115.8116.1116.1
Mississippi St.115.0113.6113.9114.1
Arkansas113.1111.9113.1112.7
Ole Miss113.2111.8112.1112.4
Texas A&M108.7108.9108.9108.8
Auburn107.5106.3106.8106.9

SEC113.1112.8113.1113.0

Sunbelt Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
James Madison100.2101.6103.7101.8
Appalachian St.97.198.098.597.9
Marshall95.996.997.396.7
Georgia St.95.695.797.196.1
Ga. Southern90.490.691.590.8
Coastal Carolina90.190.991.190.7
Old Dominion86.987.087.387.1

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Troy97.798.799.798.7
South Alabama94.895.596.595.6
Louisiana94.995.496.495.6
Southern Miss.88.388.989.488.9
UL-Monroe82.682.982.882.8
Texas St.80.781.781.681.3
Arkansas St.79.280.279.679.7

Sun Belt91.091.792.391.7

Conference Ratings

#ConferenceRating
1Southeastern113.0
2Big Ten111.5
3Big 12111.4
4Pac-12105.7
5Atlantic Coast104.7
6American Athletic98.4
7Independents92.5
8Sun Belt91.7
9Mountain West89.8
10Mid-American88.7
11Conference USA86.5

Playoff & Bowl Projections

BowlTeamTeam
BahamasMiami (O)UAB
CureMarshallCentral Florida
FenwayCincinnatiLouisville
New MexicoRiceUtah St.
L.A.Washington St.Fresno St.
Lending TreeBuffaloSouthern Miss.
Las VegasUCLAMississippi St.
FriscoLouisianaAir Force
Myrtle BeachGeorgia SouthernConnecticut
Famous Idaho PotatoOhioBoise St.
Boca RatonCoastal CarolinaBYU
New OrleansWestern KentuckySouth Alabama
Armed ForcesSMUUTSA
IndependenceHoustonNew Mexico St.
GasparillaMissouriSyracuse
HawaiiSan Diego St.Middle Tennessee
Quick LaneEastern MichiganLiberty
CamelliaToledoTroy
First ResponderSan Jose St.North Texas
BirminghamMemphisKansas
Guaranteed RateBaylorWisconsin
MilitaryWake ForestEast Carolina
LibertyArkansasOklahoma
HolidayFlorida St.Oregon
TexasOklahoma St.Florida
PinstripeIowaPittsburgh
Cheez-ItNorth CarolinaTexas Tech
AlamoWashingtonTexas
Duke’s MayoMarylandNorth Carolina St.
Tony the Tiger SunOregon St.Duke
ArizonaWyomingBowling Green
OrangeClemsonTennessee
Music CityKentuckyMinnesota
SugarAlabamaKansas St.
TaxSlayerNotre DameSouth Carolina
PeachGeorgiaOhio St.
FiestaMichiganTCU
Reliaquest (Outback)Ole MissIllinois
CitrusLSUPurdue
CottonTulaneUSC
RoseUtahPenn St.
National ChampionshipGeorgiaMichigan

November 27, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Football–Championship Week

This Week’s Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
BuffaloAkron12.313.413.9
UTSANorth Texas11.511.210.4
UtahUSC4.13.14.0
TCUKansas St.4.24.24.4
OhioToledo0.72.32.4
TroyCoastal Carolina8.78.89.4
GeorgiaLSU17.517.018.0
TulaneCentral Florida4.74.05.0
Boise St.Fresno St.5.95.75.8
MichiganPurdue15.615.817.3
ClemsonNorth Carolina10.210.211.5

Conference Championship Schedule

DayDateLocationConferenceTeam 1Team 2NetworkTime (EST)
FRI12/2San AntonioC-USAUTSANorth TexasCBSSN7:30 PM
FRI12/2Las VegasPac-12USCUtahFox8:00 PM
SAT12/3Arlington, TXBig 12TCUKansas St.ABC12:00 PM
SAT12/3DetroitMid-AmericanOhioToledoESPN12:00 PM
SAT12/3Troy, ALSun BeltTroyCoastal CarolinaESPN3:30 PM
SAT12/3AtlantaSECGeorgiaLSUCBS4:00 PM
SAT12/3New OrleansAmericanTulaneCentral FloridaABC4:00 PM
SAT12/3Boise, IDMountain WestBoise St.Fresno St.Fox4:00 PM
SAT12/3IndianapolisBig TenMichiganPurdueFox8:00 PM
SAT12/3CharlotteACCClemsonNorth CarolinaABC8:00 PM

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#TeamRating
1Georgia132.2
2Michigan129.9
3Ohio St.129.5
4Alabama128.6
5Penn St.124.1
6Tennessee123.1
7T C U122.1
8Kansas St.119.4
9Texas119.3
10Florida St.119.0
11Utah118.9
12Clemson117.8
13L S U116.2
14Oregon115.8
15Minnesota115.5
16U S C115.2
17Notre Dame115.0
18Illinois114.5
19Mississippi St.114.1
20Oregon St.113.7
21Washington113.6
22Baylor113.4
23Iowa113.0
24Arkansas112.7
25Wisconsin112.5
26Ole Miss112.4
27Oklahoma112.2
28Purdue112.2
29Louisville112.1
30Maryland111.2
31Pittsburgh111.0
32U C L A111.0
33Florida110.1
34Kentucky109.9
35Texas Tech109.6
36South Carolina109.1
37NC State108.9
38Texas A&M108.8
39Michigan St.108.4
40Wake Forest107.7
41Cincinnati107.3
42Tulane107.2
43Oklahoma St.107.2
44North Carolina107.2
45Auburn106.9
46Washington St.106.0
47Boise St.105.4
48UCF105.1
49Iowa St.104.6
50West Virginia104.4
51Missouri104.3
52Syracuse103.8
53Nebraska103.6
54BYU103.5
55Fresno St.102.6
56Air Force102.4
57Houston102.0
58James Madison101.8
59Duke101.8
60Kansas101.8
61SMU101.2
62U T S A100.9
63Arizona St.99.8
64Memphis99.6
65East Carolina99.2
66W. Kentucky98.7
67Arizona98.5
68Miami (Fla.)98.4
69Indiana98.4
70Troy97.9
71Appalachian St.97.9
72California97.8
73U A B97.5
74Army96.9
75Marshall96.7
76Stanford96.7
77Liberty96.3
78Georgia St.96.1
79Navy96.1
80Ohio95.9
81South Alabama95.6
82Louisiana95.6
83Georgia Tech95.3
84Virginia95.2
85San Diego St.94.8
86Virginia Tech94.7
87Northwestern94.5
88Tulsa94.5
89Toledo94.1
90Rutgers93.8
91Vanderbilt93.4
92San Jose St.93.1
93North Texas92.9
94Boston College92.8
95Coastal Carolina91.5
96Ga. Southern90.8
97Buffalo90.5
98Utah St.90.2
99Kent St.90.1
100Miami (Ohio)89.7
101Florida Atlantic89.3
102Eastern Mich.89.1
103Western Mich.88.9
104Southern Miss.88.9
105Central Mich.88.8
106Wyoming88.3
107USF88.0
108U T E P87.3
109Old Dominion87.1
110Ball St.86.5
111N. Illinois86.2
112Middle Tennessee85.9
113U N L V85.8
114Connecticut85.4
115Bowling Green84.5
116Colorado St.83.1
117UL-Monroe82.8
118Temple82.7
119Colorado81.6
120Texas St.81.3
121Akron79.8
122Nevada79.7
123Arkansas St.79.7
124New Mexico St.79.2
125Louisiana Tech79.0
126Rice78.8
127Hawaii76.3
128Charlotte75.7
129New Mexico75.5
130Massachusetts71.1
131Florida Int’l.65.1

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average
Cincinnati107.6106.7107.5107.3
Tulane107.1106.9107.6107.2
UCF104.9105.4105.1105.1
Houston102.4101.6102.0102.0
SMU101.4100.7101.4101.2
Memphis99.699.899.499.6
East Carolina99.198.899.699.2
Navy96.296.096.196.1
Tulsa94.994.294.394.5
USF88.687.787.788.0
Temple82.483.682.082.7

AAC98.698.398.498.4

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average
Florida St.119.0118.8119.1119.0
Clemson117.9117.6118.0117.8
Louisville112.3112.0112.0112.1
NC State109.4108.8108.4108.9
Wake Forest108.0107.7107.5107.7
Syracuse104.6103.6103.1103.8
Boston College93.293.491.892.8

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average
Pittsburgh111.8111.0110.3111.0
North Carolina107.7107.4106.5107.2
Duke101.4103.1100.8101.8
Miami (Fla.)99.298.397.798.4
Georgia Tech95.895.694.595.3
Virginia95.895.994.095.2
Virginia Tech95.195.393.794.7

ACC105.1104.9104.1104.7

Big 12 Conference
Team
PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average
T C U122.6121.5122.3122.1
Kansas St.119.9118.8119.4119.4
Texas119.9119.1118.8119.3
Baylor114.1112.8113.2113.4
Oklahoma112.6111.7112.4112.2
Texas Tech109.8108.9110.2109.6
Oklahoma St.108.0106.5107.0107.2
Iowa St.105.1104.4104.4104.6
West Virginia104.8104.2104.2104.4
Kansas102.9101.5101.0101.8

Big 12112.0110.9111.3111.4

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average
Michigan130.2129.6130.0129.9
Ohio St.130.1128.9129.6129.5
Penn St.124.2124.1124.1124.1
Maryland111.6111.3110.7111.2
Michigan St.109.5108.2107.4108.4
Indiana99.398.597.498.4
Rutgers95.093.992.493.8

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average
Minnesota115.9115.2115.4115.5
Illinois114.6115.0113.9114.5
Iowa113.8112.9112.3113.0
Wisconsin113.1112.6111.8112.5
Purdue113.1112.3111.2112.2
Nebraska104.1103.9103.0103.6
Northwestern94.895.293.594.5

Big Ten112.1111.5110.9111.5

Conference USA

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average
U T S A100.9100.5101.3100.9
W. Kentucky98.498.399.498.7
U A B97.497.297.997.5
North Texas92.492.393.992.9
Florida Atlantic89.190.088.989.3
U T E P87.287.387.287.3
Middle Tennessee85.786.385.785.9
Louisiana Tech78.979.778.479.0
Rice79.078.978.578.8
Charlotte75.476.275.575.7
Florida Int’l.64.966.564.065.1

CUSA86.386.786.486.5

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average
Notre Dame115.4114.3115.4115.0
BYU103.9102.7103.8103.5
Army96.597.197.296.9
Liberty95.996.796.296.3
Connecticut85.386.584.485.4
New Mexico St.78.680.578.579.2
Massachusetts71.272.169.971.1

Independents92.492.892.292.5

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average
Ohio94.596.796.595.9
Buffalo89.491.390.890.5
Kent St.89.591.189.890.1
Miami (Ohio)88.890.589.889.7
Bowling Green84.484.584.784.5
Akron79.680.479.379.8

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Toledo93.894.494.194.1
Eastern Mich.88.589.589.289.1
Western Mich.88.289.389.288.9
Central Mich.87.889.289.488.8
Ball St.85.887.286.786.5
N. Illinois86.086.586.186.2

MAC88.089.288.888.7

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average
Boise St.105.3105.0105.9105.4
Air Force102.2102.2102.9102.4
Utah St.90.090.190.490.2
Wyoming87.488.988.588.3
Colorado St.82.683.583.383.1
New Mexico76.175.874.675.5

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Fresno St.102.4102.3103.2102.6
San Diego St.94.894.495.094.8
San Jose St.92.993.193.293.1
U N L V86.185.086.185.8
Nevada79.580.579.279.7
Hawaii75.576.676.876.3

MWC89.689.889.989.8

Pac-12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average
Utah118.8118.1119.8118.9
Oregon115.9115.4116.0115.8
U S C114.7115.0115.8115.2
Oregon St.113.4113.1114.5113.7
Washington113.1113.4114.2113.6
U C L A110.6110.5111.8111.0
Washington St.105.6105.9106.5106.0
Arizona St.100.099.4100.199.8
Arizona98.398.498.998.5
California97.597.598.397.8
Stanford97.895.996.496.7
Colorado82.481.081.581.6

Pac-12105.7105.3106.1105.7

Southeastern Conference
East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average
Georgia132.4131.5132.8132.2
Tennessee122.7122.9123.7123.1
Florida109.6110.7110.1110.1
Kentucky109.5109.8110.3109.9
South Carolina109.1108.9109.2109.1
Missouri104.3104.5103.9104.3
Vanderbilt93.394.092.793.4

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average
Alabama128.7127.8129.2128.6
L S U116.4116.0116.3116.2
Mississippi St.115.0113.6113.9114.1
Arkansas113.1111.9113.1112.7
Ole Miss113.2111.8112.1112.4
Texas A&M108.7108.9108.9108.8
Auburn107.5106.3106.8106.9

SEC113.1112.8113.1113.0

Sunbelt Conference
East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average
James Madison100.2101.6103.7101.8
Appalachian St.97.198.098.597.9
Marshall95.996.997.396.7
Georgia St.95.695.797.196.1
Coastal Carolina90.891.791.991.5
Ga. Southern90.490.691.590.8
Old Dominion86.987.087.387.1

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average
Troy97.097.998.997.9
South Alabama94.895.596.595.6
Louisiana94.995.496.495.6
Southern Miss.88.388.989.488.9
UL-Monroe82.682.982.882.8
Texas St.80.781.781.681.3
Arkansas St.79.280.279.679.7

Sun Belt91.091.792.391.7

Conference Ratings

#ConferenceRating
1Southeastern113.0
2Big Ten111.5
3Big 12111.4
4Pac-12105.7
5Atlantic Coast104.7
6American Athletic98.4
7Independents92.5
8Sun Belt91.7
9Mountain West89.8
10Mid-American88.7
11Conference USA86.5

Bowl Projections

As of this morning, Sunday, November 27, 2022, there are 80 Bowl Eligible teams for 82 slots in bowls. There are three teams that can still become bowl eligible. Buffalo is 5-6. They host Akron in the makeup game that was postponed when Buffalo was blanketed with feet of snow. Army is 5-6, and a win over Navy would make the Black Knights bowl eligible. New Mexico State is 5-6, and it is not yet determined if the Aggies will get the opportunity to makeup their postponed game with San Jose State. In a wild and crazy world, NMSU has two other options that could work to supply them a replacement game. Virginia Tech had their game with Virginia cancelled and could get an extra game. Vanderbilt had the opportunity to play a 13th game having played in Hawaii, and the Commodores could get an extra game. It’s about 99% certain that neither team would play in Las Cruces on Saturday. Only San Jose State might still agree to playing the game.

Appalachian State has six wins, but two came against FCS teams. The rules state that only one FCS win can be counted toward bowl eligibility, but when there are not enough bowl eligible teams, a team may receive a waiver.

If one or two 5-7 teams need to be added to the bowl schedule, the Academic Progress Rate score determines which team(s) can go. This year, if one additional 5-win team is needed, it will be Rice. If a second 5-7 team is needed, it will be UNLV. For now, we will predict Army and Buffalo to get their sixth wins, and Appy State will get their waiver with two FCS wins.

BowlTeamTeam
BahamasMiami (O)UAB
CureTroyAir Force
FenwayPittsburghCincinnati
New MexicoWyomingNorth Texas
L.A.OregonBoise St.
Lending TreeToledoSouthern Miss.
Las VegasUCLASouth Carolina
FriscoFresno St.Houston
Myrtle BeachMarshallConecticut
Famous Idaho PotatoUtah St.Bowling Green
Boca RatonCoastal CarolinaLiberty
New OrleansSouth AlabamaWestern Kentucky
Armed ForcesCentral FloridaUTSA
IndependenceSMUArmy
GasparillaWake ForestArkansas
HawaiiSan Diego St.Middle Tennessee
Quick LaneBuffaloLouisiana
CamelliaOhioGeorgia Southern
First ResponderBYUKansas
BirminghamMemphisAppalachian St.
Guaranteed RateWisconsinBaylor
MilitarySyracsueEast Carolina
LibertyOklahomaMissouri
HolidayUtahNotre Dame
TexasTexas TechOle Miss
PinstripeIowaNorth Carolina St.
Cheez-ItNorth CarolinaOklahoma St.
AlamoTexasOregon St.
Duke’s MayoDukeMinnesota
Tony the Tiger SunFlorida St.Washington St.
ArizonaSan Jose St.Eastern Michigan
OrangeClemsonTennessee
Music CityMarylandKentucky
SugarAlabamaKansas St.
TaxSlayerFloridaLouisville
PeachGeorgiaUSC
FiestaMichiganTCU
Reliaquest (Outback)Mississippi St.Illinois
CitrusLSUPurdue
CottonPenn St.Tulane
RoseOhio St.Washington
National ChampionshipGeorgiaMichigan

November 13, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Football — November 13, 2022

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:50 am

This Week’s Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
ToledoBowling Green15.716.816.6
Ball St.Ohio-3.7-4.8-5.2
Kent St.Eastern Michigan7.17.97.2
Central MichiganWestern Michigan4.95.96.9
Northern IllinoisMiami (O)6.34.85.4
TulaneSMU2.12.31.9
TulsaSouth Florida7.67.98.0
New MexicoSan Diego St.-12.4-12.3-14.1
Iowa St.Texas Tech2.12.61.4
West VirginiaKansas St.-12.6-11.9-12.6
Florida St.Louisiana28.828.027.0
RutgersPenn St.-20.2-21.1-22.6
South CarolinaTennessee-18.5-19.0-19.6
LouisvilleNorth Carolina St.5.05.45.6
Wake ForestSyracuse7.07.87.8
PittsburghDuke13.710.913.2
Michigan St.Indiana15.815.516.2
LibertyVirginia Tech7.28.110.3
ClemsonMiami (Fla)17.718.118.9
MarylandOhio St.-20.8-20.2-22.3
MichiganIllinois19.818.720.9
PurdueNorthwestern20.218.919.8
VirginiaCoastal Carolina6.65.73.4
KentuckyGeorgia-23.9-22.8-24.4
ArmyConnecticut11.911.013.4
East CarolinaHouston5.86.16.8
TempleCincinnati-24.1-22.0-25.4
Central FloridaNavy16.818.018.0
Appalachian St.Old Dominion12.914.014.5
James MadisonGeorgia St.3.95.25.6
KansasTexas-7.8-8.1-8.1
AuburnWestern Kentucky9.78.26.9
MinnesotaIowa4.95.16.1
North CarolinaGeorgia Tech20.420.821.6
Texas A&MMassachusetts40.339.842.1
LSUUAB23.122.921.9
RiceUTSA-16.9-16.4-17.6
ArizonaWashington St.-5.8-6.2-6.2
Air ForceColorado St.23.422.323.4
Arizona St.Oregon St.-6.0-6.1-6.4
Utah St.San Jose St.-0.7-0.8-1.0
Notre DameBoston College21.419.722.8
CaliforniaStanford0.52.42.3
WashingtonColorado26.328.028.0
UCLAUSC-0.6-0.9-0.3
OregonUtah0.60.7-0.8
VanderbiltFlorida-13.6-14.0-15.1
BaylorTCU-2.2-2.2-2.2
ArkansasOle Miss1.21.22.4
Southern Miss.South Alabama-4.3-4.4-5.1
OklahomaOklahoma St.2.93.33.1
NebraskaWisconsin-8.7-8.8-9.4
MissouriNew Mexico St.31.329.530.9
TroyLouisiana-Monroe14.214.415.4
BuffaloAkron17.218.419.1
CharlotteLouisiana Tech-2.1-2.3-1.4
Middle TennesseeFlorida Atlantic-4.8-5.5-4.4
UTEPFlorida Int’l.21.819.922.5
Texas St.Arkansas St.4.44.35.2
Georgia SouthernMarshall-1.8-2.7-1.7
WyomingBoise St.-14.7-12.6-14.4
NevadaFresno St.-17.5-15.7-18.3
HawaiiUNLV-11.7-9.3-11.0

FBS vs. FCS Games

FBSFCSPiRate
AlabamaAustin Peay46.9
BYUUtah Tech37.7
Mississippi St.East Tennessee35.7
MemphisNorth Alabama32.0

Bye Week

North Texas

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#TeamRating
1Georgia134.0
2Ohio St.133.0
3Alabama128.8
4Michigan127.8
5Tennessee126.9
6Penn St.121.7
7Florida St.118.8
8Kansas St.118.7
9Utah118.4
10T C U118.1
11L S U117.8
12Clemson117.7
13Minnesota115.7
14Texas115.7
15Oregon115.6
16Ole Miss113.9
17Notre Dame113.8
18Mississippi St.113.4
19Wisconsin113.4
20Baylor113.4
21Iowa113.4
22U S C113.2
23Purdue112.7
24Arkansas112.5
25Louisville112.5
26Florida111.6
27U C L A111.2
28Illinois111.1
29Oklahoma111.0
30Oregon St.111.0
31NC State110.1
32Michigan St.110.0
33Oklahoma St.109.9
34North Carolina109.9
35Washington109.5
36Pittsburgh109.4
37Texas Tech109.4
38Wake Forest108.9
39Maryland108.8
40Iowa St.108.4
41Texas A&M108.3
42Cincinnati108.3
43UCF108.1
44Washington St.107.6
45Kentucky107.3
46Boise St.106.0
47Auburn105.6
48South Carolina104.9
49Kansas104.7
50SMU104.0
51Syracuse103.8
52Tulane103.6
53BYU103.5
54East Carolina103.5
55West Virginia103.3
56Missouri103.1
57Air Force102.6
58Miami (Fla.)102.5
59Arizona St.101.9
60Nebraska101.4
61Liberty100.6
62Fresno St.100.4
63W. Kentucky100.3
64Houston100.2
65U T S A100.2
66Duke99.8
67James Madison98.7
68Arizona98.5
69Memphis98.4
70Appalachian St.98.3
71U A B98.1
72Toledo98.0
73Rutgers97.9
74California97.4
75Stanford97.2
76Indiana97.2
77Virginia96.7
78Georgia St.96.2
79Northwestern96.0
80Troy96.0
81Marshall95.7
82South Alabama95.6
83Boston College95.5
84Army95.2
85Vanderbilt94.9
86Coastal Carolina94.5
87Virginia Tech94.1
88Louisiana93.8
89San Diego St.93.8
90Ohio93.8
91San Jose St.93.7
92Navy93.5
93North Texas92.5
94Tulsa92.5
95Georgia Tech92.0
96N. Illinois91.8
97Florida Atlantic91.8
98Ga. Southern91.1
99Central Mich.91.0
100Kent St.91.0
101Buffalo90.8
102Utah St.89.9
103Wyoming89.1
104Miami (Ohio)88.8
105Southern Miss.88.5
106U N L V87.8
107USF87.6
108Ball St.87.2
109Western Mich.87.1
110Old Dominion86.9
111Eastern Mich.86.1
112Connecticut85.6
113Colorado85.1
114U T E P84.5
115Middle Tennessee84.4
116UL-Monroe83.8
117Bowling Green83.6
118Texas St.83.5
119Temple81.9
120Colorado St.81.5
121Arkansas St.81.3
122Rice80.7
123Nevada80.3
124Louisiana Tech79.5
125New Mexico77.9
126New Mexico St.75.5
127Akron75.1
128Charlotte75.0
129Hawaii74.1
130Massachusetts70.6
131Florida Int’l.65.5

PiRate Ratings By Conference



American Athletic
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Cincinnati108.4107.6108.8108.3
UCF107.6108.4108.4108.1
SMU104.1103.5104.4104.0
Tulane103.7103.3103.8103.6
East Carolina103.3103.0104.1103.5
Houston100.599.8100.3100.2
Memphis98.498.698.198.4
Navy93.893.493.493.5
Tulsa93.092.292.292.5
USF88.487.487.287.6
Temple81.883.080.881.9
AAC98.598.298.398.3


Atlantic Coast
Atlantic Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Florida St.118.9118.6118.8118.8
Clemson117.8117.5117.9117.7
Louisville112.8112.4112.3112.5
NC State110.7110.0109.7110.1
Wake Forest109.1108.8108.7108.9
Syracuse104.7103.5103.3103.8
Boston College95.796.394.495.5
Coastal Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
North Carolina110.2110.2109.5109.9
Pittsburgh110.3109.3108.8109.4
Miami (Fla.)103.1102.4102.0102.5
Duke99.5101.398.599.8
Virginia97.397.495.596.7
Virginia Tech94.794.792.894.1
Georgia Tech92.892.490.992.0
ACC105.5105.3104.5105.1


Big 12
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Kansas St.119.3118.1118.7118.7
T C U118.7117.5118.2118.1
Texas116.6115.6115.0115.7
Baylor114.0112.8113.4113.4
Oklahoma111.5110.5111.1111.0
Oklahoma St.110.6109.2110.0109.9
Texas Tech109.6108.6109.9109.4
Iowa St.108.7108.2108.3108.4
Kansas105.8104.5104.0104.7
West Virginia103.7103.2103.1103.3
Big 12111.8110.8111.2111.3


Big Ten
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.133.3132.3133.4133.0
Michigan128.1127.4128.0127.8
Penn St.121.8121.7121.7121.7
Michigan St.111.0109.8109.2110.0
Maryland109.5109.0108.1108.8
Rutgers99.198.196.697.9
Indiana98.297.396.097.2
West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Minnesota116.1115.4115.7115.7
Wisconsin113.8113.5112.9113.4
Iowa114.2113.3112.6113.4
Purdue113.5112.7111.8112.7
Illinois111.4111.7110.2111.1
Nebraska102.1101.7100.6101.4
Northwestern96.396.895.096.0
Big Ten112.0111.5110.8111.4


Conference USA
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
W. Kentucky99.799.8101.4100.3
U T S A100.199.6100.7100.2
U A B97.897.798.998.1
North Texas92.192.093.392.5
Florida Atlantic91.592.691.291.8
U T E P84.684.584.284.5
Middle Tennessee84.284.684.384.4
Rice80.780.780.680.7
Louisiana Tech79.480.378.779.5
Charlotte74.875.574.875.0
Florida Int’l.65.367.164.265.5
CUSA86.486.886.686.6


Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Notre Dame114.2112.9114.2113.8
BYU104.0102.7103.8103.5
Liberty99.9100.9101.0100.6
Army94.995.395.595.2
Connecticut85.586.884.685.6
New Mexico St.75.076.974.675.5
Massachusetts70.871.769.370.6
Independents92.092.591.992.1


Mid-American
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio92.394.694.493.8
Kent St.90.492.090.691.0
Buffalo89.691.691.390.8
Miami (Ohio)87.889.788.988.8
Bowling Green83.783.583.683.6
Akron74.975.774.675.1
West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Toledo97.498.398.298.0
N. Illinois91.692.091.891.8
Central Mich.89.691.492.091.0
Ball St.86.687.987.387.2
Western Mich.86.787.587.187.1
Eastern Mich.85.886.585.986.1
MAC88.089.288.888.7


Mountain West
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Boise St.105.9105.5106.7106.0
Air Force102.4102.3103.1102.6
Utah St.89.889.990.089.9
Wyoming88.289.989.389.1
Colorado St.81.182.081.681.5
New Mexico78.478.277.077.9
West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Fresno St.100.499.9100.9100.4
San Diego St.93.893.494.193.8
San Jose St.93.493.794.093.7
U N L V88.086.888.487.8
Nevada80.081.279.680.3
Hawaii73.474.674.474.1
MWC89.689.889.989.8


Pac-12
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Utah118.2117.6119.5118.4
Oregon115.8115.3115.7115.6
U S C112.8113.1113.8113.2
U C L A110.8110.7112.0111.2
Oregon St.110.9110.4111.7111.0
Washington109.2109.4110.0109.5
Washington St.107.1107.5108.1107.6
Arizona St.101.9101.4102.3101.9
Arizona98.398.398.998.5
California97.297.297.997.4
Stanford98.296.497.097.2
Colorado85.884.485.085.1
Pac-12105.5105.1106.0105.5


Southeastern
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Georgia133.9133.1134.9134.0
Tennessee126.6126.7127.5126.9
Florida111.0112.2111.7111.6
Kentucky107.0107.3107.5107.3
South Carolina105.1104.8104.9104.9
Missouri103.2103.4102.5103.1
Vanderbilt94.995.694.194.9
West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Alabama128.9128.0129.4128.8
L S U118.0117.5117.8117.8
Ole Miss114.7113.4113.7113.9
Mississippi St.114.3112.9113.2113.4
Arkansas112.9111.6113.1112.5
Texas A&M108.1108.4108.4108.3
Auburn106.4105.0105.3105.6
SEC113.2112.9113.1113.1


Sunbelt
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
James Madison97.198.5100.498.7
Appalachian St.97.398.499.098.3
Georgia St.95.795.797.396.2
Marshall95.096.096.095.7
Coastal Carolina93.794.795.194.5
Ga. Southern90.890.891.891.1
Old Dominion86.986.987.086.9
West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Troy95.295.896.996.0
South Alabama94.795.496.695.6
Louisiana93.193.694.793.8
Southern Miss.87.988.589.088.5
UL-Monroe83.584.083.983.8
Texas St.82.783.883.983.5
Arkansas St.80.882.081.281.3
Sun Belt91.091.792.491.7

Conference Ratings

#ConferenceRating
1Southeastern113.1
2Big Ten111.4
3Big 12111.3
4Pac-12105.5
5Atlantic Coast105.1
6American Athletic98.3
7Independents92.1
8Sun Belt91.7
9Mountain West89.8
10Mid-American88.7
11Conference USA86.6

Bowl Projections

BowlTeamTeam
BahamasWestern KentuckyOhio
CureTroyTulane
FenwaySyracuseCincinnati
New MexicoNorth TexasWyoming
L.A.WashingtonFresno St.
Lending TreeMiddle TennesseeLouisiana
Las VegasOregonMississippi St.
FriscoSouth AlabamaSan Jose St.
Myrtle BeachCoastal CarolinaLiberty
Famous Idaho PotatoBall St.Utah St.
Boca RatonMarshallConnecticut
New OrleansFlorida AtlanticAppalachian St.
Armed ForcesHoustonUAB
IndependenceSMUUNLV
GasparillaMiami (Fla.)Maryland
HawaiiUTSABoise St.
Quick LaneWisconsinEastern Michigan
CamelliaBuffaloGeorgia Southern
First ResponderArizonaSan Diego St.
BirminghamLouisvilleMemphis
Guaranteed RateKansasMichigan St.
MilitaryWake ForestEast Carolina
LibertyBaylorKentucky
HolidayNotre DameUCLA
TexasTexas TechMissouri
PinstripePittsburghMinnesota
Cheez-ItNorth CarolinaTexas
AlamoOklahoma St.Washington St.
Duke’s MayoDukeIowa
Tony the Tiger SunNorth Carolina St.Oregon St.
ArizonaToledoAir Force
OrangeClemsonAlabama
Music CityIllinoisBYU
SugarLSUKansas St.
TaxSlayerFlorida St.South Carolina
PeachGeorgiaTennessee
FiestaOhio St.TCU
Reliaquest (Outback)PurdueFlorida
CitrusPenn St.Ole Miss
CottonUtahCentral Florida
RoseUSCMichigan
National ChampionshipGeorgiaOhio St.

November 6, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Football–November 6, 2022

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:45 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
AkronEastern Michigan-9.1-9.3-9.9
Miami (O)Ohio0.80.40.0
ToledoBall St.13.713.614.4
Western MichiganNorthern Illinois-2.5-2.0-2.2
Central MichiganBuffalo2.31.82.6
Bowling GreenKent St.1.1-0.71.2
MemphisTulsa6.77.76.8
LouisianaGeorgia Southern2.12.32.3
CincinnatiEast Carolina8.68.38.5
USCColorado28.029.929.8
UNLVFresno St.-10.1-11.1-10.6
Wake ForestNorth Carolina1.61.21.8
SyracuseFlorida St.-5.2-5.8-5.9
ConnecticutLiberty-16.5-16.3-19.3
DukeVirginia Tech5.27.15.7
Navy (Bal)Notre Dame-22.7-21.9-23.8
West VirginiaOklahoma-6.8-6.6-7.4
VirginiaPittsburgh-7.6-6.6-7.5
Ohio St.Indiana37.737.440.2
TennesseeMissouri23.122.924.6
Penn St.Maryland12.112.112.9
North Carolina St.Boston College22.320.823.2
FloridaSouth Carolina3.85.44.2
KentuckyVanderbilt19.719.521.6
MichiganNebraska28.828.530.3
Georgia TechMiami (Fla.)-5.0-4.2-5.3
ClemsonLouisville7.37.17.4
Texas TechKansas5.75.77.7
South FloridaSMU-12.8-13.2-14.4
Coastal CarolinaSouthern Miss.9.29.79.9
Georgia St.Louisiana-Monroe18.117.920.1
MarshallAppalachian St.0.1-0.2-1.2
Old DominionJames Madison-2.6-4.0-6.0
TulaneCentral Florida-0.5-1.3-0.8
MinnesotaNorthwestern22.420.823.1
IllinoisPurdue2.33.93.4
South AlabamaTexas St.14.313.614.8
Michigan St.Rutgers16.116.117.4
HoustonTemple23.821.725.2
BaylorKansas St.3.73.94.1
Arkansas St.Massachusetts14.114.616.6
Western KentuckyRice18.318.219.9
UtahStanford20.421.622.9
Washington St.Arizona St.8.08.98.6
Oregon St.California14.113.213.6
OregonWashington12.411.611.9
UCLAArizona19.419.520.6
San Diego St.San Jose St.-0.2-1.2-0.9
TexasTCU4.24.53.4
AuburnTexas A&M1.0-0.9-0.8
TroyArmy3.54.15.4
Ole MissAlabama-11.6-12.4-13.9
Oklahoma St.Iowa St.4.73.44.1
IowaWisconsin1.10.20.0
ArkansasLSU-1.8-2.6-1.5
Mississippi St.Georgia-14.2-14.6-16.1
Air ForceNew Mexico26.726.528.6
Middle TennesseeCharlotte12.111.812.6
UABNorth Texas5.45.24.9
UTSALouisiana Tech18.316.519.4
Colorado St.Wyoming-5.4-6.3-6.3
Florida Int’l.Florida Atlantic-19.9-18.8-20.3
NevadaBoise St.-20.0-18.0-21.0
HawaiiUtah St.-13.8-12.7-13.4

FBS vs. FCS Game

FBSFCSPiRate
New Mexico St.Lamar18.2

Teams With Byes

BYU
UTEP

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Note: Our ratings are not reward based on what the teams have done so far. They are predictive in nature, meant to be used for the following week to predict the outcome of games. Thus, a two-loss team is ranked number three over a one-loss team that beat them. Do not confuse power ratings for rankings like the AP, COaches, and Playoff Polls.

#TeamRating
1Ohio St.132.8
2Georgia132.7
3Alabama129.2
4Michigan127.6
5Tennessee125.3
6Penn St.119.8
7L S U117.5
8Texas117.3
9Clemson117.2
10Utah117.1
11Oregon117.1
12Baylor116.5
13T C U116.2
14Florida St.116.0
15Kansas St.115.6
16Notre Dame115.6
17Minnesota115.4
18Mississippi St.114.7
19Wisconsin114.5
20Ole Miss113.5
21U C L A113.1
22Louisville113.0
23NC State112.7
24Arkansas112.5
25U S C112.3
26Oklahoma112.2
27Iowa112.0
28Illinois111.8
29Purdue111.6
30Michigan St.110.7
31Maryland110.4
32Oklahoma St.109.7
33Kentucky109.7
34North Carolina109.6
35Oregon St.109.5
36Wake Forest109.2
37Florida109.0
38Cincinnati108.8
39Texas Tech108.7
40Texas A&M108.7
41Iowa St.108.6
42Pittsburgh108.4
43Washington108.1
44South Carolina107.6
45Washington St.107.5
46UCF107.4
47Syracuse107.3
48Auburn105.5
49Kansas105.4
50Missouri104.7
51Boise St.104.2
52Tulane104.0
53SMU103.8
54East Carolina103.3
55BYU103.2
56Liberty103.1
57Air Force102.4
58West Virginia102.3
59Arizona St.102.0
60Houston101.5
61Nebraska101.4
62Miami (Fla.)101.2
63Fresno St.100.6
64California98.9
65Appalachian St.98.7
66Duke98.7
67W. Kentucky98.6
68Stanford98.5
69Toledo98.3
70Georgia St.98.1
71Virginia98.1
72Memphis97.7
73U T S A97.5
74Indiana97.4
75Rutgers97.2
76U A B96.6
77Northwestern96.3
78Arizona96.3
79Troy96.3
80James Madison95.9
81Virginia Tech95.7
82South Alabama95.4
83San Jose St.95.4
84Marshall95.3
85Army94.9
86Coastal Carolina94.8
87North Texas94.0
88Boston College93.6
89Georgia Tech93.3
90Tulsa93.1
91Ga. Southern92.6
92Vanderbilt92.5
93Louisiana92.3
94Navy92.2
95San Diego St.92.1
96Ohio92.1
97N. Illinois91.8
98Buffalo91.0
99Central Mich.90.8
100Miami (Ohio)90.5
101Utah St.90.2
102Old Dominion89.7
103Wyoming89.3
104Florida Atlantic89.2
105Southern Miss.88.2
106Kent St.88.0
107USF87.8
108U N L V87.5
109Western Mich.87.1
110Ball St.86.9
111Bowling Green86.6
112Eastern Mich.86.3
113Colorado86.0
114Middle Tennessee84.5
115U T E P84.3
116Texas St.83.7
117Connecticut83.2
118Rice82.3
119Arkansas St.82.3
120Nevada82.1
121UL-Monroe81.9
122Louisiana Tech81.9
123Colorado St.81.3
124Temple80.9
125New Mexico78.1
126Charlotte74.9
127Akron74.9
128New Mexico St.74.8
129Hawaii73.8
130Massachusetts69.7
131Florida Int’l.68.1

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Cincinnati108.8108.1109.4108.8
UCF107.0107.6107.6107.4
Tulane104.0103.8104.3104.0
SMU103.9103.3104.2103.8
East Carolina103.2102.8103.8103.3
Houston101.7100.9101.8101.5
Memphis97.898.097.397.7
Tulsa93.692.893.093.1
Navy92.692.291.992.2
USF88.687.687.487.8
Temple80.982.279.680.9

AAC98.498.198.298.2

Atlantic Coast
Atlantic Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Clemson117.4117.0117.3117.2
Florida St.116.2115.8115.9116.0
Louisville113.2112.9112.9113.0
NC State113.2112.4112.5112.7
Wake Forest109.4109.1109.0109.2
Syracuse108.1107.0106.9107.3
Boston College93.994.692.393.6

Coastal Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
North Carolina109.9109.9109.2109.6
Pittsburgh109.3108.3107.6108.4
Miami (Fla.)101.9101.0100.6101.2
Duke98.4100.397.298.7
Virginia98.698.797.098.1
Virginia Tech96.396.294.695.7
Georgia Tech94.093.892.393.3

ACC105.7105.5104.7105.3

Big 12
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Texas118.1117.2116.6117.3
Baylor117.0115.9116.6116.5
T C U116.9115.6116.3116.2
Kansas St.116.3115.0115.5115.6
Oklahoma112.6111.7112.4112.2
Oklahoma St.110.5108.9109.7109.7
Texas Tech109.0107.9109.3108.7
Iowa St.108.8108.5108.6108.6
Kansas106.4105.2104.6105.4
West Virginia102.8102.2102.0102.3

Big 12111.8110.8111.2111.3

Big Ten
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.133.1132.0133.3132.8
Michigan127.9127.2127.8127.6
Penn St.120.0119.8119.7119.8
Michigan St.111.6110.5110.1110.7
Maryland111.0110.6109.8110.4
Indiana98.497.696.197.4
Rutgers98.597.495.797.2

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Minnesota115.9115.0115.4115.4
Wisconsin114.8114.6114.1114.5
Iowa112.9111.9111.1112.0
Illinois112.0112.5111.1111.8
Purdue112.6111.6110.6111.6
Nebraska102.1101.7100.6101.4
Northwestern96.597.295.396.3

Big Ten112.0111.4110.8111.4

Conference USA
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
W. Kentucky98.198.199.798.6
U T S A97.596.898.097.5
U A B96.496.297.396.6
North Texas93.593.594.994.0
Florida Atlantic89.190.088.689.2
Middle Tennessee84.384.784.684.5
U T E P84.484.384.084.3
Rice82.382.482.382.3
Louisiana Tech81.782.881.181.9
Charlotte74.775.474.574.9
Florida Int’l.67.769.766.868.1

CUSA86.386.786.586.5

Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Notre Dame115.9114.6116.2115.6
BYU103.7102.4103.5103.2
Liberty102.2103.3103.7103.1
Army94.895.095.094.9
Connecticut83.284.481.983.2
New Mexico St.74.376.273.974.8
Massachusetts70.070.868.269.7

Independents92.092.491.892.1

Mid-American
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio90.792.992.692.1
Buffalo89.791.991.691.0
Miami (Ohio)89.491.490.790.5
Kent St.87.589.187.588.0
Bowling Green86.686.486.786.6
Akron74.875.574.374.9

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Toledo97.698.698.798.3
N. Illinois91.692.091.891.8
Central Mich.89.591.191.790.8
Western Mich.86.787.587.187.1
Ball St.86.487.686.886.9
Eastern Mich.85.986.786.286.3

MAC88.089.288.888.7

Mountain West
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Boise St.104.2103.6104.9104.2
Air Force102.2102.0102.9102.4
Utah St.90.090.190.490.2
Wyoming88.390.189.689.3
Colorado St.81.081.881.381.3
New Mexico78.678.577.278.1

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Fresno St.100.5100.2101.2100.6
San Jose St.94.995.495.895.4
San Diego St.92.391.792.392.1
U N L V87.986.588.187.5
Nevada81.783.181.482.1
Hawaii73.274.474.073.8

MWC89.689.889.989.8

Pac-12
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Utah116.9116.3118.2117.1
Oregon117.2116.7117.3117.1
U C L A112.6112.6114.1113.1
U S C111.8112.2112.8112.3
Oregon St.109.6108.9110.1109.5
Washington107.8108.0108.4108.1
Washington St.107.0107.4108.0107.5
Arizona St.102.0101.5102.4102.0
California98.598.799.598.9
Stanford99.597.798.398.5
Arizona96.296.196.596.3
Colorado86.885.386.086.0

Pac-12105.5105.1106.0105.5

Southeastern
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Georgia132.7131.8133.6132.7
Tennessee125.0125.0125.8125.3
Kentucky109.3109.7110.1109.7
Florida108.4109.7108.9109.0
South Carolina107.7107.3107.7107.6
Missouri104.8105.1104.2104.7
Vanderbilt92.693.291.592.5

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Alabama129.1128.4130.0129.2
L S U117.7117.2117.5117.5
Mississippi St.115.5114.2114.5114.7
Ole Miss114.5113.0113.1113.5
Arkansas112.9111.6113.1112.5
Texas A&M108.4108.8108.9108.7
Auburn106.4104.9105.1105.5

SEC113.2112.9113.1113.1

Sunbelt
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Appalachian St.97.698.899.698.7
Georgia St.97.497.599.498.1
James Madison94.395.797.795.9
Marshall94.795.695.495.3
Coastal Carolina93.995.095.594.8
Ga. Southern92.292.393.492.6
Old Dominion89.789.789.789.7

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Troy95.396.197.496.3
South Alabama94.695.196.495.4
Louisiana91.792.193.192.3
Southern Miss.87.788.288.688.2
Texas St.82.884.184.183.7
Arkansas St.81.682.982.382.3
UL-Monroe81.882.281.881.9

Sun Belt91.191.892.591.8

Conference Ratings

#ConferenceRating
1Southeastern113.1
2Big Ten111.4
3Big 12111.3
4Pac-12105.5
5Atlantic Coast105.3
6American Athletic98.2
7Independents92.1
8Sun Belt91.8
9Mountain West89.8
10Mid-American88.7
11Conference USA86.5

Playoff & Bowl Projections

Four weeks from today, the College Football Playoffs and Postseason Bowl Game participants will be revealed to the public.  With less than a month to go, it’s time to take a more in-depth look at where things stand and where they might go.

The Playoff Race

After yesterday’s Georgia-Tennessee, Alabama-LSU, and Notre Dame-Clemson games played, it left three teams in the clear-cut lead to be in the top four this week.  Georgia has now penned the lone losses on Oregon and Tennessee, and the Bulldogs will ascend to number one.  Ohio State won ugly at Northwestern yesterday, but they played in severe weather.  Michigan once again spotted an opponent an early lead and then steamrolled Rutgers by four touchdowns.  Those three teams will be in the Big Four on Tuesday.  Who will be number four?  We believe it will be Tennessee, as losing at the new number one team by two touchdowns definitely tops Oregon’s blowout loss in Atlanta to the same team.  Should TCU be in the mix?  They most definitely should, but as so many media experts explain, their name drops them a couple spots in the rankings, just like Cincinnati last year at this time.  If the Horned Frogs win out with three tough games to go, they almost assuredly would move into the top four, but that’s a big if, and at the present time, having watched TCU play most of their games, we don’t see this team sitting at 13-0 on December 4.

If we have to make a wild guess, we will say that Georgia will easily win out in the regular season, even if their game in Starkville this week may be a trap game.  We cannot see any of Tennessee’s final three opponents competing against the Vols.  Georgia stopped their offense, because the Bulldogs have a defense not that much weaker than the Detroit Lions (probably more future Pro Bowl players than the Lions).  Neither Ohio State nor Michigan have much in their way prior to the big game at the Giant Horseshoe.  It won’t be popular, but a Big Ten-SEC Challenge in the Playoffs could be in the offing.  As of today, we have Georgia playing Michigan in the Peach Bowl, and Ohio State playing Tennessee in the Fiesta Bowl.  Oregon might win out and finish 12-1 and have to settle for the Rose Bowl.  We can see TCU actually losing twice in the next month, and maybe having to settle for the Cotton Bowl or even the Alamo Bowl, depending on what UCLA or USC does out West.

The New Year’s Six

One thing that happened this weekend was the elimination of Alabama and most likely Clemson from the Playoff picture.  With LSU’s win, the Tigers have a tough rebound game at Arkansas, and if Brian Kelly can lead the Bayou Bengals into Fayetteville and win, they almost have the SEC West clinched.  At 10-2 and a loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, we believe the Sugar Bowl will take them in a heartbeat.  Where would that leave a 10-2 Alabama?  We think they would still get an Orange Bowl bid, where they might face their former nemesis Clemson.  The Rose Bowl would get the Pac-12 champion that would not be Playoff bound, so we’ll slot Oregon in there for now but not rule out the winner of the USC-UCLA game.  That leaves the Cotton Bowl.  The Group of Five team that finishes the highest in the ratings will automatically get a bid here.  If that bid was extended today, the Tulane Green Wave would receive it, but TU must beat Central Florida, Cincinnati, and then one of those two again in the AAC Championship Game to get to 12-1 and secure the bid.  Should TU falter, and we think that’s a very high possibility, the next team in line, one that strengthened their resume with a road win against an SEC team, would be Liberty, if the Flames win out (a much higher probability than Tulane).  The last at-large team in the field would most likely be Penn State at 10-2, but the number two team in the Pac-12 could beat the Nittany Lions out.  With losses to just two teams that we pick to be in the Playoffs, we’d go with Penn State to edge out any two-loss Pac-12 team.

American Athletic

As we previously mentioned, we do not see Tulane winning out, and should the Green Wave lose to both Central Florida and Cincinnati, they won’t even make the AAC Championship Game.  If they beat UCF in New Orleans, they would have to beat Cinti in consecutive weeks to get there, once in the Queen City and then once in the Crescent City.  If the Bearcats win out, and Tulane beats UCF, then Cinti would host Tulane in consecutive weeks.  If UCF wins out, and Cincinnati tops Tulane, then the Bearcats would have to go to Orlando in the conference championship game.

Elsewhere in the AAC, with SMU’s record-setting basketball score win over Houston, the Mustangs are almost a lock to get a bowl bid.  East Carolina is already bowl eligible.  Houston and Memphis have work to do, but the schedule is favorable for both.  As for the Cougars, Dana Holgersen may not be coaching the team by bowl season.

Atlantic Coast & Notre Dame

A half-dozen teams will have to lose games before Clemson has a remote chance to sneak into the playoffs, assuming the Tigers can win out.  If they play like they have the last few weeks, beating North Carolina in the ACC Championship Game would be 50-50 at best, and they might even be vulnerable against South Carolina in the regular season finale.  At best, CU can hope for another ACC title and a trip to the Orange Bowl.  North Carolina may be the weakest 1-loss team from a Power 5 Conference since the 20th Century.  The Tar Heels keep coming up with fourth quarter heroics to be mediocre teams.  We don’t believe Mack Brown’s Heels can make it to a New Year’s Bowl Game, and they need to finish better than one game ahead of Notre Dame just to get the Cheez-it Bowl bid.

Notre Dame can receive any of the ACC’s allotted bowl bids after the Orange Bowl as long as their won-loss record is within one game of the next highest ACC team.  If the Irish lose to USC and finish 9-3, they will be able to jump over a 10-2 team, but not an 11-2 team.  What better bowl to send the Irish to in December than one in Boston?  They’d sell out Fenway Park like a Yankees-Red Sox game in October.

With Notre Dame, this league figures to have 10 bowl eligible teams, which means all the first tier bowl bids will be taken, and one second tier bowl bid will be used.  We believe the Gasparilla Bowl will get the final ACC team.

Big 12

Had Texas been able to edge Alabama in September and not lose their star QB for a few games, the Longhorns might be in the Playoff mix.  The best the Longhorns can do now is to play spoiler and knock TCU out of the Playoff mix.  If Quinn Ewers can remain healthy and not have another three interception day like he did against Oklahoma State, the Longhorns might win out and become Big 12 Champions, getting a Sugar Bowl bid.

TCU must beat Texas and Baylor and then whoever makes the Big 12 Championship Game in order to get to the necessary 13-0 they will need to make the Playoffs, and it looks like too much of a longshot.  It is going to be rough just getting to the Sugar Bowl, and two losses most likely banishes the Frogs to the Alamo Bowl.

Elsewhere in the league, Kansas has now assured themselves of their first bowl bid in 14 years.  Texas Tech and Iowa State are now fighting it out for the last bowl bid in this league, and we believe there will be eight teams playing in the postseason.  If no Big 12 team gets to the Playoffs, there will be one extra team to fill in as an at-large bowl participant, and it is our belief that they will replace a spot that the SEC cannot fill.

Big Ten

We show three of the bowl eligible teams playing in either the Playoffs or New Year’s Six, so Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State being taken off the table means the other New Year’s Day games against SEC teams will have lesser teams.  The Citrus Bowl is likely to go to the West Division Champion that will then get clobbered in the Big Ten Championship Game.  At the moment, even with a loss this weekend, Illinois has the upper hand.  The Reliaquest (Outback) bowl bid would then probably go to the West Division runner-up. 

There should be 10 Bowl Eligible teams with many of the also-rans beating up on each other, so the Big Ten will be able to fill its allotment all the way down to the Quick Lane Bowl.  That requires Michigan State to win two more games, but we think Sparty does that.

Conference USA

It is the weakest overall conference in FBS football, but geography is on CUSA’s side.  This year, the two best teams are in the Lone Star State as UTSA and North Texas have moved to the top of the standings and figure to play in the title game.  Western Kentucky, Rice, Florida Atlantic, and Middle Tennessee are quite mediocre, but all four could end up with six losses and become bowl eligible.  The last bowl bid available figures to come down to the number six CUSA team and the number eight Mountain West team.  Because that final bowl spot is likely to be from a game east of the Mississippi River, a 6-6 CUSA team should get in over a 6-6 MWC team.

Independents

Notre Dame is not counted as an independent since they can receive an ACC bid.  Army and BYU are guaranteed bowl bids if they are bowl eligible.  BYU should sneak in, but Army is looking at a potential 5-7 or 4-8 season.

Liberty will get a bowl bid, and if the Flames win out, they could be feeling some soft Cotton in Texas.  The big surprise team that few people have taken notice to since September is Connecticut.  The Huskies could very well become bowl eligible in Jim Mora Jr.’s first season in Storrs.

Mid-American

Toledo frequently appears to be the most talented team in the MAC, but the Rockets always stub their toes and fail to win the conference championship.  They will have to look hard for something to bang their feet on this year.  Losing another game would be a major Rocket malfunction.  The rest of this league has a lot of parity, but there should be seven bowl eligible teams the first Sunday in December.  All seven will get bowl bids.  The question is, “who will be forced to spend December in Boise?”

Mountain West

This has been another down year in the MWC, and with rumors swirling that more than one team could be moving to the Pac-12 or even Big 12, this league has lost some prestige.  Having Boise State no longer be great has hurt it even more.  The Broncos lost to a so-so BYU team Saturday, and their upcoming game at Wyoming may determine the Mountain Division champion.  Air Force and Utah State should also receive bowl bids on this side of the Rockies.

On the West side, Fresno State started slowly but is 10 to 14 points better than they were in early September.  San Jose State can still win the division, but the Bulldogs look like they have this race under control.  San Diego State also figures to be bowl eligible on this side.  Once considered a contender for the division title, UNLV is looking at a 6-6 record and quite possibly becoming the lone bowl eligible team that does not receive an invitation.

Pac-12

Too much parity has been the bane of this league for several years.  This year, there is a big division of haves and have-nots, and it likely means that the league will do no better than place a team in the Rose Bowl.  Oregon’s 40+ point loss to Georgia cannot be overlooked, and if the Ducks win out and finish 12-1, two or three teams ahead of the Ducks today will have to lose.  It won’t be easy for Oregon to win out.

UCLA, USC, and Utah are still in the mix for the Pac-12 title, and all three are talented enough to beat Oregon in December.  If UCLA or USC wins out and Oregon wins out, the loser of the Pac-12 Championship Game would still have a fair chance at receiving the Cotton Bowl bid as the last NY6 team.

Oregon State, Washington, and Washington State will also be bowl eligible and will satisfy the rest of the league allotment with no extra teams.  Oregon State could play spoiler in the Civil War game with the Ducks.

SEC

The overwhelming power of this league is most likely to leave the conference one team short of filling its bowl spots.  We see Georgia and Tennessee both making the playoff, and we see LSU and Alabama both getting NY6 bids.  We also see just 10 SEC teams becoming bowl eligible now that Texas A&M has collapsed and Arkansas tripped up at home against Liberty.  The Arkansas-Missouri winner on the final weekend should get the final bowl bid.  As of today, we have the Music City Bowl being the odd bowl out needing an at-large team, and the Big 12 is full of teams with fans that would love some country music during the holidays.

Sun Belt

The SBC pecking order is unique, and it is difficult to place teams in bowls because of it.  ESPN gets the first choice of teams to place in one of the bowl games they sponsor.  It doesn’t have to be the number one team in the league, just the number one choice.  Next, the New Orleans Bowl gets to choose its team after ESPN has taken its first choice.  The 3rd and 4th teams once again are chosen by ESPN for their bowls, and then the 5th team is chosen by the Lending Tree Bowl.  There figures to be seven bowl eligible teams from this league, which is fast becoming the second best G5 conference.  All seven will receive bids.

BowlTeamTeam
BahamasFlorida AtlanticBowling Green
CureSouth AlabamaAir Force
FenwayNotre DameCincinnati
New MexicoRiceSan Jose St.
L.A.Washington St.Fresno St.
Lending TreeBuffaloGeorgia Southern
Las VegasUSCKentucky
FriscoBYUSan Diego St.
Myrtle BeachBall St.Appalachian St.
Famous Idaho PotatoEastern MichiganUtah St.
Boca RatonMarshallConnecticut
New OrleansWestern KentuckyCoastal Carolina
Armed ForcesTulaneUTSA
IndependenceEast CarolinaSouthern Miss.
GasparillaLouisvilleHouston
HawaiiNorth TexasBoise St.
Quick LaneMichigan St.Miami (O)
CamelliaToledoTroy
First ResponderKansasSMU
BirminghamMemphisMiddle Tennessee
Guaranteed RateOklahoma St.Purdue
MilitaryWake ForestCentral Florida
LibertyBaylorSouth Carolina
HolidayDukeWashington
TexasOklahomaMissouri
PinstripePittsburghWisconsin
Cheez-ItNorth CarolinaKansas St.
AlamoTCUUtah
Duke’s MayoNorth Carolina St.Maryland
Tony the Tiger SunSyracuseOregon St.
ArizonaOhio UWyoming
OrangeClemsonAlabama
Music CityIowaTexas Tech
SugarLSUTexas
TaxSlayerFlorida St.Mississippi St.
PeachGeorgiaMichigan
FiestaOhio St.Tennessee
Reliaquest (Outback)MinnesotaFlorida
CitrusIllinoisOle Miss
CottonUCLALiberty
RoseOregonPenn St.
National ChampionshipGeorgiaOhio St.

August 16, 2020

College Football Update

Welcome back to the PiRate Ship.  We hope we have now plugged all the leaks onboard, and our vessel is seaworthy for the potential 9-month long, two-part football season.

As of this morning, 76 FBS football teams plan to play football in the Fall, and 54 FBS football teams hope to play in the Spring.

After working many hours more than in a typical season, the Bucs onboard our PiRate Ship have finally calculated the ratings for all 130 teams.

There is a fly in the ointment here.  Our annual ratings are based on a par score of 100.0.  In other words, if you total the ratings for the 130 teams, the PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings should each total to 13,000.  How can the ratings adjust to par if 54 teams play no games every week until at least February, while 76 teams do play?  Should we then adjust our ratings so that the 76 teams playing total to 7,600?  Doing so, would require changing all the ratings, so that one group totaled 7,600 and another group totaled 5,400.

Ah, but there’s more to this than meets the eyes.  Most of these teams will play a conference only schedule.  How can a computer algorithm properly compare a team in the Atlantic Coast Conference with a team in the Southeastern Conference if there are no inter-conference games?

For many years, Major League Baseball had no inter-league play.  The best team in the American League and the best team in the National League had no common opponents.  The 1954 New York Giants won 13 fewer games than the 1954 Cleveland Indians.  The baseball media believed this World Series could be over in the minimum four games.  They were 100% correct that it took just four games to decide the Series, but the wrong team won the four games.  Other than the Yankees and White Sox, the rest of the AL was about as weak as it has ever been in a non-World War season.   The NL was six-deep in quality that year, and the 6th place St. Louis Cardinals were talented enough to be a first division team in the AL.

With 16 total teams, it may be somewhat possible to compare any eight with any other eight when the two pairs of  eight never play.  That is not possible with 130 or 76 or 54 teams.  Our ratings may need to be adjusted so that each conference averages 100.0.  But, then where would that leave Brigham Young, Army, and Liberty?  These three Independents plan to play some number of games.  How can we possibly make these three teams total 300.0 and then play games against other teams in leagues that average 100.0?

That is where we are at the present time.  Our conclusion today, thanks to the evil Covid-19, Corona, is that we will release separate preseason ratings, three different ways.

Our first set of PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings will show you all 130 teams rated just like Covid never existed.

Our second set of PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings will show you the 76 teams playing this Fall.  If any of the remaining 54 teams actually play in the Spring, we will be here to rate those teams the best way we know how.

Our third set of PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings will show you the rating of teams within their own conference sampling.

Here’s an example, using a rating for State U.

Their normal preseason ratings might be

PiRate: 109.7

Mean: 108.9

Bias: 110.1

Let’s say State U plays in one of the 76 teams that plan to play this Fall.  After removing the ratings of the 54 teams not playing this fall, State U’s preseason ratings will no doubt change, because the exact average of those 54 teams will not be 100.0.  Let’s say that the 54 teams opting out due to Corona average 97.4.  The average of the remaining 76 teams is now 101.8.  Reducing that average to 100.0 might now adjust State U’s ratings to:

PiRate: 107.7

Mean:  106.9

Bias: 108.1

Let’s say that State U plays in the ACC, which will now have Notre Dame playing a full conference schedule this year.  The 15-team league will need to sum up to 1500.0 in all three ratings.  Normally, the ACC might have begun the preseason with a conference average of 110.0, or basically 10-points stronger than an average team.  Now State U’s ratings against a closed league of 15 ACC teams would have to be adjusted to:

PiRate: 99.7

Mean: 99.0

Bias: 100.1

So what ratings would we go with in this unique scenario?  We can submit the regular ratings before the first game is ever played, because nothing would be different in this regard.  Nobody has played a game, so the preseason ratings would be the same.  Definitely, we realize that with limited or no Spring Practice and with assumed 2-deep Depth Charts considerably less accurate than in past years, these ratings cannot be as accurate as past seasons.

If we wait until all 76 teams’ schedules are in place and then adjust the ratings so that every team will be rated on the same scale, then what happens when on Tuesday of a game week, one team has to quarantine and schedule somebody not rated on the same scale?  For instance, let’s say Florida State is scheduled to play North Carolina State, and the Wolf Pack has to cancel due to 20 positive cases.  What if at the same time Florida’s scheduled game with Vanderbilt is also postponed, because the Commodores must cancel.  Might a Florida State versus Florida game be scheduled on the quick?

Our final conclusion is to go with a 76-team ratings’ release that sum as close to 7600 for each rating and then to go with a different 54-team ratings’ release in the Spring, assuming the Spring actually does feature those 54 teams.

Monday afternoon Eastern Time, we will reveal our raw preseason ratings for the entire 130 teams and then separate ratings for the 76-team field, as well as ratings for teams by each conference.  We will then go with the 76-team format for the Fall season.

There will be no conference previews.  We will release ratings and pointspreads for weekly games, hoping that we can keep up with whatever alterations are made to the schedule.  We are sailing into the Corona Triangle this year.  Let’s hope we can get through it to the other side.

Note: In our few hours of spare time, we have been working on a tabletop football game with NFL teams and with college teams.  If you remember the old Avalon Hill/Sports Illustrated games that once existed, our games will be similar but different.  If we ever determine them to be marketable, you will not need the specialized 10-39 dice used by AH/SI.  Regular, 6-sided dice will work.  Hopefully, we will have the first set available to be purchased at a ridiculously cheap price with the chance to purchase future sets at additionally ridiculously cheap prices.  By sending out the charts in PDF form for you to print, we can sell the game for less than $10.  That is if we ever get any of the sets finished.  We have been working on three different sets–a 32-team Best of NFL by franchise from 2000 to 2019; the same best of for each SEC team between 2000 & 2019; and the best of for each Big Ten team between 2000 & 2019.  In the works in the future will be best of teams from each Major Conference between 2000 & 2019, as well as the best of NFL (and AFL) from 1960 to 1979, and from 1940 to 1959.

December 23, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 17: December 29, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

 

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Baltimore

Pittsburgh

13.8

13.6

14.0

Buffalo

N.Y. Jets

8.3

8.6

9.4

Carolina

New Orleans

-14.7

-13.4

-13.7

Cincinnati

Cleveland

-4.1

-4.5

-4.3

Dallas

Washington

16.0

15.4

15.5

Detroit

Green Bay

-7.2

-8.7

-9.2

Houston

Tennessee

1.4

1.7

1.7

Jacksonville

Indianapolis

-7.8

-8.5

-8.0

Kansas City

LA Chargers

9.2

10.2

10.9

Minnesota

Chicago

6.7

7.8

8.0

New England

Miami

21.7

22.0

21.6

N. Y. Giants

Philadelphia

-7.2

-5.7

-5.0

Tampa Bay

Atlanta

1.5

2.5

2.9

Denver

Oakland

7.1

7.6

7.3

LA Rams

Arizona

9.4

8.3

8.1

Seattle

San Francisco

-3.0

-3.9

-3.9

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

 

Home

Visitor

Total

Baltimore

Pittsburgh

44

Buffalo

N.Y. Jets

38

Carolina

New Orleans

53

Cincinnati

Cleveland

47.5

Dallas

Washington

41.5

Detroit

Green Bay

47.5

Houston

Tennessee

45

Jacksonville

Indianapolis

41

Kansas City

LA Chargers

51.5

Minnesota

Chicago

38.5

New England

Miami

48

N. Y. Giants

Philadelphia

49

Tampa Bay

Atlanta

55.5

Denver

Oakland

44.5

LA Rams

Arizona

51

Seattle

San Francisco

49.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New England

108.0

108.7

108.2

108.3

19.5

12-3

Buffalo

102.0

103.0

103.0

102.7

17

10-5

N. Y. Jets

94.7

95.4

94.6

94.9

21

6-9

Miami

89.4

89.7

89.6

89.6

28.5

4-11

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Baltimore

111.7

111.9

112.7

112.1

25

13-2

Pittsburgh

98.9

99.4

99.7

99.3

19

8-7

Cleveland

97.8

97.9

97.8

97.8

24

6-9

Cincinnati

92.7

92.4

92.5

92.5

23.5

1-14

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Houston

102.2

102.7

102.7

102.6

23.5

10-5

Tennessee

101.8

102.0

102.0

101.9

21.5

8-7

Indianapolis

100.1

100.9

100.3

100.4

23

7-8

Jacksonville

91.3

91.4

91.3

91.3

18

5-10

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Kansas City

107.0

107.7

107.7

107.5

29.5

11-4

LA Chargers

100.4

100.0

99.3

99.9

22

5-10

Denver

99.0

99.3

99.1

99.1

19

6-9

Oakland

92.8

92.7

92.8

92.8

25.5

7-8

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Dallas

104.2

104.3

103.9

104.1

22

7-8

Philadelphia

101.9

100.7

100.5

101.0

23.5

8-7

N.Y. Giants

93.7

94.0

94.4

94.0

25.5

4-11

Washington

91.3

91.9

91.4

91.5

19.5

3-12

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Minnesota

106.8

105.7

105.8

106.1

21.5

10-5

Green Bay

103.8

103.8

104.2

103.9

24

12-3

Chicago

101.1

98.9

98.8

99.6

17

7-8

Detroit

95.0

93.6

93.5

94.1

23.5

3-11-1

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New Orleans

108.7

107.2

107.7

107.9

27

12-3

Tampa Bay

101.1

102.3

102.6

102.0

29.5

7-8

Atlanta

100.6

100.8

100.7

100.7

26

6-9

Carolina

93.0

92.8

93.0

92.9

26

5-10

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

San Francisco

107.2

107.9

108.1

107.7

26

12-3

LA Rams

104.5

103.6

104.0

104.0

26.5

8-7

Seattle

101.2

101.0

101.2

101.1

23.5

11-4

Arizona

96.1

96.3

96.9

96.4

24.5

5-9-1

 

 

 

Week 17 Playoff Scenarios

 

NFC

If San Francisco, New Orleans, and Green Bay all win, San Francisco is  the #1 seed, Green Bay the #2 seed, and New Orleans the #3 seed.

If Seattle beats San Francisco, then Green Bay will get #1 seed with win over Detroit.

If Seattle beats San Francisco, and Detroit beats Green Bay, then New Orleans gets #1 seed with a win over Carolina.

If Seatlle beats San Francisco, and Green Bay and New Orleans lose, Seattle gets the #1 seed.

Philadelphia wins the NFC East with a win over the Giants or a Dallas loss to Washington. Any ties in the standings would go to Dallas.

Minnesota is #6 seed regardless of week 17 results.

 

AFC

Houston has clinched the #1 seed in the AFC

New England clinches the #2 seed with a win over Miami or a Kansas City loss to the Chargers.

Houston can pass Kansas City for the #3 seed with a win over Tennessee and a loss by Kansas City.

Buffalo is the #5 seed regardless of week 17 results.

Tennessee wins the #6 seed if they beat Houston, or with a loss with Pittsburgh losing to Baltimore while both Oakland and Indianapolis do not win.

Pittsburgh wins the #6 seed only if they win and the Titans lose.

Oakland can clinch the #6 seed with a win over Denver, plus losses by Tennessee and Pittsburgh and Indianapolis beating Jacksonville.

 

PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

 

What are the chances that the Oakland Raiders, in their last season playing in Oakland, could sneak into the NFL Playoffs?  It ranges from + or – 10-15% depending on which advanced metric expert you listen to.  We’re sabermetric experts that do not perform these type of metrics on pro football.

The way we look at things, Baltimore has nothing to gain this week against Pittsburgh in their season finale.  Their key players should play little or not at all.  Can the Steelers with poor quarterback play rise up and beat the Ravens’ reserves if they couldn’t beat the Jets last week?

Tennessee has now dropped two games in a row to playoff teams in Houston and New Orleans, both at home.  Houston may have a chance to move up to a #3 seed if Kansas City is upset earlier in the day.  

Oakland closes out regular season play at Denver, where the Broncos have nothing to play for in Week 17.

Indianapolis is playing solely to get to 8-8, while Jacksonville has nothing to play for in Week 17.

We think Oakland’s chances to sneak in as the final playoff team is considerably better than 15%.  In fact, just because it would make such a great story, we are going to select the Raiders as our 6th seed to set up a probably Oakland finale against their most hated rivals.

 

AFC Seeding

1

Baltimore

2

New England

3

Kansas City

4

Houston

5

Buffalo

6

Oakland

 

 

NFC Seeding

1

Green Bay

2

New Orleans

3

Seattle

4

Philadelphia

5

San Francisco

6

Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round

Kansas City over Oakland

Buffalo over Houston

Minnesota over Seattle

San Francisco over Philadelphia

 

 

Divisional Round

Buffalo over Baltimore

Kansas City over New England

Green Bay over Minnesota

New Orleans over San Francisco

 

 

Conference Championship

Kansas City over Buffalo

New Orleans over Green Bay

 

 

Super Bowl 54

New Orleans over Kansas City

 

 

December 14, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: Final Regular Season

PiRate Ratings Spreads For 2019-2020 Bowls & Playoffs

Including TV & Start Times 

All Times Given Are Eastern Standard Time

 

Favorite

Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Dec. 20

Bahamas

ESPN

2:00 PM

Buffalo

Charlotte

6.9

7.1

7.6

 

 

Dec. 20

Frisco

ESPN2

7:30 PM

Utah St.

Kent St.

7.8

7.4

7.3

 

 

Dec. 21

New Mexico

ESPN

2:00 PM

San Diego St.

Central Michigan

5.3

6.1

4.1

 

 

Dec. 21

Cure

CBSSN

2:30 PM

Georgia Southern

Liberty

9.5

8.3

8.9

 

 

Dec. 21

Boca Raton

ABC

3:30 PM

SMU

Florida Atlantic

3.5

3.2

2.8

 

 

Dec.21

Camellia

ESPN

5:30 PM

Arkansas St.

Florida Int’l.

0.9

1.4

0.4

 

 

Dec. 21

Las Vegas

ABC

7:30 PM

Washington

Boise St.

5.0

4.3

5.6

 

 

Dec. 21

New Orleans

ESPN

9:00 PM

Appalachian St.

UAB

23.1

20.9

21.7

 

 

Dec. 23

Gasparilla

ESPN

2:30 PM

Central Florida

Marshall

19.6

19.4

19.6

 

 

Dec. 24

Hawaii

ESPN

8:00 PM

BYU

Hawaii

1.3

0.2

1.6

 

 

Dec. 26

Independence

ESPN

4:00 PM

Miami (Fla.)

Louisiana Tech

10.6

9.9

11.4

 

 

Dec. 26

Quick Lane

ESPN

8:00 PM

Pittsburgh

Eastern Michigan

13.1

12.3

12.6

 

 

Dec. 27

Military

ESPN

12:00 PM

North Carolina

Temple

8.3

8.3

7.9

 

 

Dec. 27

Pinstripe

ESPN

3:20 PM

Michigan St.

Wake Forest

4.6

4.4

3.4

 

 

Dec. 27

Texas

ESPN

6:45 PM

Texas A&M

Oklahoma St.

6.3

3.2

5.1

 

 

Dec. 27

Holiday

FS1

8:00 PM

Iowa

USC

7.4

5.3

6.2

 

 

Dec. 27

Cheez-It

ESPN

10:15 PM

Washington St.

Air Force

5.4

2.8

4.4

 

 

Dec. 28

Camping World

ABC

12:00 PM

Notre Dame

Iowa St.

7.9

6.7

8.3

 

 

Dec. 28

Cotton

ESPN

12:00 PM

Penn St.

Memphis

11.3

10.1

10.3

 

 

Dec. 28

Peach

ESPN

4:00 PM

LSU

Oklahoma

14.5

13.0

15.1

 

 

Dec. 28

Fiesta

ESPN

8:00 PM

Ohio St.

Clemson

1.6

2.3

1.0

 

 

Dec. 30

First Responder

ESPN

12:30 PM

Western Michigan

Western Kentucky

2.3

0.7

0.6

 

 

Dec. 30

Music City

ESPN

4:00 PM

Mississippi St.

Louisville

9.6

6.8

13.4

 

 

Dec. 30

Redbox

Fox

4:00 PM

California

Illinois

4.0

3.2

4.9

 

 

Dec. 30

Orange

ESPN

8:00 PM

Florida

Virginia

21.1

18.8

20.7

 

 

Dec. 31

Belk

ESPN

12:00 PM

Kentucky

Virginia Tech

1.9

0.8

0.4

 

 

Dec. 31

Sun

CBS

2:00 PM

Arizona St.

Florida St.

3.1

2.7

3.2

 

 

Dec. 31

Liberty

ESPN

3:45 PM

Kansas St.

Navy

10.8

8.4

9.3

 

 

Dec. 31

Arizona

CBSSN

4:30 PM

Wyoming

Georgia St.

9.3

10.2

10.5

 

 

Dec. 31

Alamo

ESPN

7:30 PM

Utah

Texas

10.2

9.0

10.9

 

 

Jan. 1

Citrus

ABC

1:00 PM

Alabama

Michigan

3.2

1.4

3.2

 

 

Jan. 1

Outback

ESPN

1:00 PM

Auburn

Minnesota

5.7

4.3

6.2

 

 

Jan. 1

Rose

ESPN

5:00 PM

Wisconsin

Oregon

0.7

0.7

0.3

 

 

Jan. 1

Sugar

ESPN

8:45 PM

Georgia

Baylor

8.8

7.0

9.7

 

 

Jan. 2

Birmingham

ESPN

3:00 PM

Cincinnati

Boston College

4.0

4.1

4.1

 

 

Jan. 2

Gator

ESPN

7:00 PM

Tennessee

Indiana

0.8

1.5

0.6

 

 

Jan. 3

Potato

ESPN

3:30 PM

Ohio U

Nevada

8.6

6.3

9.8

 

 

Jan. 4

Armed Forces

ESPN

11:30 AM

Tulane

Southern Miss.

5.9

9.6

6.1

 

 

Jan. 6

Lending Tree

ESPN

7:30 PM

Louisiana

Miami (O)

12.6

13.8

12.0

 

 

Jan. 13

Championship

ESPN

8:00 PM

Fiesta Bowl

Peach Bowl

 

 

 

 

December 9, 2019

NFL Schedule Recommendation

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , — piratings @ 3:37 pm

The NFL has discussed contracting the number of games in the preseason, while possibly adding extra games to the regular season schedule and increasing the number of teams in the Playoffs.  Us PiRates here on the SS Buckaroo believe we can solve all the problems and make it a win-win for owners, players, and fans alike.  Here is our PiRate Principles for the NFL’s future.

  1. Reduce the number of preseason games from 4 to 2

  2. Make training camp 6 weeks long with preseason games during week 3 and week 4.  Then, teams can practice for another week after their second preseason game before making final cuts.

  3. Expand Rosters to 60 players with 3 active quarterbacks in that group of 60

  4. A practice or taxi squad of 7 players would be allowed.

  5. Expand the regular season to 17 games, with the extra game played at neutral sites.  This would allow teams to play in London, Toronto, and Mexico City without losing home games.  Other incredible venues where there is no pro football team could be Lincoln, NE, San Antonio, Iowa City, IA, Louisville, KY, Birmingham, AL, Knoxville, TN, State College, PA, Ann Arbor, MI, Columbus, OH, South Bend, IN, basically any 80,000 seat plus venue.  The Falcons and Titans could probably fill up Legion Field in Birmingham.  The Bears and Colts could definitely fill up Notre Dame’s stadium.

  6. This 17th game would be an inter-conference game.

  7. Make the playoffs a full 16 teams with the 4 division winners hosting the next 4 teams with winning records.  This could still be played out in four games like the wildcard and two division winners must play in both conferences.

Look for updated NFL Ratings Tuesday morning, including a plethora of what if playoff situations.

Our PiRate Bowl Coverage will publish Saturday, December 14, after the Army-Navy game has concluded.

November 24, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: November 24, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:48 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday

November 26

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Akron

Ohio

-27.7

-27.1

-29.3

Northern Illinois

Western Michigan

-9.4

-9.2

-9.0

 

 

Thursday

November 28

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Mississippi St.

Ole Miss

3.7

1.2

7.5

 

 

Friday

November 29

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Arkansas

Missouri

-20.0

-17.5

-19.7

Ball St.

Miami (O)

1.4

2.0

1.1

Buffalo

Bowling Green

27.4

28.6

29.1

Central Florida

South Florida

24.1

22.7

24.1

Central Michigan

Toledo

5.0

5.7

5.7

Colorado St.

Boise St.

-18.1

-15.0

-18.0

Eastern Michigan

Kent St.

3.3

3.6

3.3

Memphis

Cincinnati

7.2

7.9

8.2

Nebraska

Iowa

-9.5

-7.8

-10.2

South Alabama

Arkansas St.

-13.9

-11.7

-14.0

TCU

West Virginia

10.3

12.6

11.2

Texas

Texas Tech

6.6

6.5

7.0

Troy

Appalachian St.

-13.8

-12.7

-14.5

Virginia

Virginia Tech

-1.7

-1.8

-2.5

Washington

Washington St.

2.2

2.4

2.6

 

 

Saturday

November 30

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Air Force

Wyoming

7.8

7.7

8.3

Arizona St.

Arizona

12.6

12.5

13.6

Auburn

Alabama

-5.0

-3.7

-5.9

Coastal Carolina

Texas St.

10.9

11.6

11.3

Duke

Miami (Fla.)

-4.6

-5.0

-6.1

East Carolina

Tulsa

-6.6

-5.9

-7.9

Florida

Florida St.

22.5

20.0

22.1

Florida Atlantic

Southern Miss.

6.6

7.7

7.3

Georgia Southern

Georgia St.

7.3

6.2

7.5

Georgia Tech

Georgia

-34.6

-34.0

-34.5

Hawaii

Army

4.6

5.7

4.3

Houston

Navy

0.9

-0.5

1.8

Illinois

Northwestern

4.6

6.4

6.1

Kansas

Baylor

-14.0

-13.1

-13.3

Kansas St.

Iowa St.

-0.4

-1.2

-0.7

Kentucky

Louisville

9.2

8.1

8.1

Liberty

New Mexico St.

16.5

15.7

16.8

Louisiana

UL-Monroe

19.5

19.3

19.7

Louisiana Tech

Texas-San Antonio

20.7

19.1

20.5

LSU

Texas A&M

16.0

15.2

16.6

Marshall

Florida Int’l.

6.3

6.3

7.2

Michigan

Ohio St.

-9.6

-9.9

-10.1

Michigan St.

Maryland

18.6

18.8

19.7

Minnesota

Wisconsin

1.3

1.3

0.9

Nevada

UNLV

8.8

8.8

8.7

New Mexico

Utah St.

-14.8

-12.0

-16.7

North Carolina St.

North Carolina

-10.4

-11.2

-11.6

North Texas

UAB

0.3

-2.1

-0.4

Oklahoma St.

Oklahoma

-10.2

-8.8

-10.0

Old Dominion

Charlotte

-12.0

-12.2

-12.6

Oregon

Oregon St.

20.2

19.2

21.2

Penn St.

Rutgers

42.0

41.6

43.5

Pittsburgh

Boston College

5.9

6.0

6.1

Purdue

Indiana

-4.7

-3.9

-5.1

San Diego St.

BYU

-2.5

-1.0

-2.4

San Jose St.

Fresno St.

-3.4

-2.6

-3.4

SMU

Tulane

6.7

5.9

6.5

South Carolina

Clemson

-27.0

-26.9

-29.2

Stanford

Notre Dame

-15.5

-15.4

-16.3

Syracuse

Wake Forest

-0.6

-0.7

-1.8

Temple

Connecticut

30.4

27.2

32.2

Tennessee

Vanderbilt

19.4

20.7

20.4

UCLA

California

-1.9

-1.9

-2.7

Utah

Colorado

31.2

30.4

31.8

UTEP

Rice

-12.2

-9.6

-11.5

Western Kentucky

Middle Tennessee

8.1

9.5

9.6

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Ohio St.

139.8

138.9

140.7

139.8

2

Clemson

138.0

136.1

139.2

137.8

3

L S U

131.3

129.1

131.3

130.6

4

Alabama

129.1

126.0

129.6

128.2

5

Michigan

127.2

126.0

127.7

127.0

6

Utah

126.8

125.9

127.5

126.7

7

Georgia

127.2

125.4

127.3

126.6

8

Florida

125.9

123.3

125.7

124.9

9

Penn St.

123.5

122.6

123.5

123.2

10

Oklahoma

122.3

121.6

121.7

121.9

11

Auburn

122.6

120.8

122.2

121.9

12

Wisconsin

120.7

120.4

120.6

120.6

13

Oregon

119.7

119.6

120.7

120.0

14

Notre Dame

120.3

119.3

120.4

120.0

15

Minnesota

119.0

118.7

118.5

118.7

16

Iowa

118.6

117.1

118.4

118.0

17

Texas A&M

118.3

116.9

117.7

117.7

18

Iowa St.

114.2

114.7

114.2

114.3

19

Baylor

113.7

113.8

113.1

113.5

20

Washington

112.0

111.6

112.7

112.1

21

Virginia Tech

111.3

111.4

112.3

111.7

22

U S C

111.0

111.6

111.8

111.5

23

Central Florida

111.5

110.8

111.8

111.4

24

Washington St.

111.4

110.7

111.6

111.2

25

Oklahoma St.

110.6

111.3

110.2

110.7

26

Kansas St.

110.8

110.5

110.5

110.6

27

Memphis

110.1

110.4

111.2

110.6

28

Tennessee

110.7

110.4

110.1

110.4

29

Mississippi St.

109.9

106.6

113.7

110.1

30

Texas

109.9

110.1

109.6

109.9

31

Indiana

110.1

109.1

109.9

109.7

32

T C U

108.8

111.0

109.2

109.7

33

Kentucky

110.0

108.7

108.9

109.2

34

Missouri

110.2

107.7

109.0

109.0

35

Boise St.

108.5

108.7

108.8

108.7

36

South Carolina

109.5

107.7

108.5

108.6

37

Michigan St.

108.9

108.1

108.2

108.4

38

Virginia

108.1

108.1

108.3

108.2

39

Arizona St.

108.0

107.5

108.5

108.0

40

Ole Miss

107.7

106.9

107.7

107.4

41

Appalachian St.

107.5

106.8

106.8

107.0

42

North Carolina

106.1

106.0

106.7

106.3

43

Miami (Fla.)

106.0

105.6

106.9

106.2

44

Nebraska

106.1

106.3

105.2

105.9

45

Cincinnati

105.9

105.5

106.0

105.8

46

Texas Tech

105.8

106.2

105.1

105.7

47

Air Force

104.1

105.8

105.0

105.0

48

Florida St.

104.8

104.8

105.0

104.9

49

Illinois

104.6

105.4

104.5

104.8

50

SMU

104.3

104.1

104.7

104.4

51

Louisiana

103.8

104.2

103.5

103.8

52

Purdue

103.9

103.7

103.3

103.6

53

Pittsburgh

103.6

103.1

103.7

103.5

54

California

103.4

103.1

103.8

103.4

55

Wake Forest

103.2

102.5

103.5

103.1

56

BYU

102.6

102.8

102.3

102.6

57

Louisville

102.3

102.1

102.3

102.2

58

West Virginia

101.6

101.4

101.0

101.3

59

Oregon St.

101.0

101.9

101.0

101.3

60

Stanford

101.8

100.9

101.1

101.3

61

Northwestern

101.5

100.5

99.9

100.7

62

Tulane

100.1

100.8

100.7

100.5

63

Boston College

100.7

100.1

100.6

100.5

64

Navy

98.6

100.9

99.6

99.7

65

Temple

99.3

99.0

100.5

99.6

66

Wyoming

98.8

100.6

99.2

99.5

67

Syracuse

99.6

98.8

98.7

99.0

68

U C L A

99.0

98.7

98.6

98.8

69

Colorado

98.6

98.5

98.7

98.6

70

Florida Atlantic

97.9

97.9

98.9

98.2

71

Western Michigan

98.5

97.6

98.2

98.1

72

Duke

98.4

97.5

97.8

97.9

73

San Diego St.

97.1

98.7

96.9

97.6

74

Houston

96.5

97.4

98.4

97.4

75

Kansas

96.7

97.7

96.8

97.1

76

Utah St.

96.9

96.4

97.5

96.9

77

Arizona

96.9

96.6

96.4

96.6

78

Georgia Southern

96.7

96.6

96.2

96.5

79

Western Kentucky

95.4

96.2

96.9

96.2

80

Ohio

95.9

95.1

96.4

95.8

81

Hawaii

95.6

97.0

94.8

95.8

82

Army

95.5

95.7

95.0

95.4

83

Buffalo

93.7

94.3

95.1

94.3

84

Louisiana Tech

94.1

94.3

94.1

94.1

85

Southern Miss.

94.3

93.2

94.6

94.0

86

North Carolina St.

94.2

93.3

93.6

93.7

87

Tulsa

92.8

93.6

94.0

93.5

88

Fresno St.

92.6

93.6

92.6

92.9

89

Marshall

92.2

92.0

93.0

92.4

90

Maryland

93.3

92.3

91.5

92.4

91

Arkansas St.

91.7

92.1

91.6

91.8

92

Vanderbilt

92.8

91.2

91.2

91.7

93

Georgia St.

90.9

91.9

90.2

91.0

94

Miami (Ohio)

91.2

90.2

91.5

91.0

95

Troy

91.2

91.6

89.8

90.9

96

Georgia Tech

91.1

89.9

91.3

90.8

97

Nevada

90.4

92.0

89.9

90.8

98

Ball St.

90.1

89.7

90.1

90.0

99

Central Michigan

89.2

89.9

90.2

89.7

100

U A B

88.8

90.8

89.5

89.7

101

Liberty

89.3

90.4

89.4

89.7

102

South Florida

88.9

89.6

89.2

89.2

103

Eastern Michigan

88.8

89.1

89.4

89.1

104

Florida Int’l.

88.9

88.7

88.8

88.8

105

Colorado St.

87.4

90.7

87.9

88.7

106

Middle Tennessee

88.8

88.2

88.8

88.6

107

San Jose St.

87.7

89.5

87.7

88.3

108

Kent St.

88.0

88.0

88.6

88.2

109

Charlotte

87.7

88.0

88.2

88.0

110

Coastal Carolina

87.3

88.4

87.0

87.6

111

Arkansas

87.7

87.6

86.8

87.4

112

Toledo

86.7

86.7

87.0

86.8

113

North Texas

86.6

86.2

86.6

86.5

114

Northern Illinois

86.6

85.9

86.7

86.4

115

Louisiana-Monroe

85.8

86.4

85.3

85.9

116

East Carolina

83.7

85.1

83.7

84.2

117

Rutgers

84.5

84.0

83.0

83.8

118

U N L V

83.1

84.7

82.7

83.5

119

Rice

82.3

83.3

82.0

82.5

120

New Mexico

79.6

81.8

78.2

79.9

121

Texas St.

78.8

79.3

78.2

78.8

122

Texas-San Antonio

75.9

77.7

76.1

76.5

123

New Mexico St.

75.8

77.7

75.6

76.3

124

South Alabama

75.3

77.8

75.1

76.1

125

Old Dominion

73.7

73.8

73.6

73.7

126

Connecticut

71.4

74.2

70.8

72.1

127

U T E P

68.6

72.2

69.0

69.9

128

Bowling Green

69.2

68.6

68.9

68.9

129

Akron

66.8

66.5

65.7

66.3

130

Massachusetts

56.7

58.2

55.7

56.9

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Central Florida

111.5

110.8

111.8

111.4

Cincinnati

105.9

105.5

106.0

105.8

Temple

99.3

99.0

100.5

99.6

South Florida

88.9

89.6

89.2

89.2

East Carolina

83.7

85.1

83.7

84.2

Connecticut

71.4

74.2

70.8

72.1

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Memphis

110.1

110.4

111.2

110.6

SMU

104.3

104.1

104.7

104.4

Tulane

100.1

100.8

100.7

100.5

Navy

98.6

100.9

99.6

99.7

Houston

96.5

97.4

98.4

97.4

Tulsa

92.8

93.6

94.0

93.5

AAC Averages

96.9

97.6

97.6

97.4

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Clemson

138.0

136.1

139.2

137.8

Florida St.

104.8

104.8

105.0

104.9

Wake Forest

103.2

102.5

103.5

103.1

Louisville

102.3

102.1

102.3

102.2

Boston College

100.7

100.1

100.6

100.5

Syracuse

99.6

98.8

98.7

99.0

North Carolina St.

94.2

93.3

93.6

93.7

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Virginia Tech

111.3

111.4

112.3

111.7

Virginia

108.1

108.1

108.3

108.2

North Carolina

106.1

106.0

106.7

106.3

Miami (Fla.)

106.0

105.6

106.9

106.2

Pittsburgh

103.6

103.1

103.7

103.5

Duke

98.4

97.5

97.8

97.9

Georgia Tech

91.1

89.9

91.3

90.8

ACC Averages

104.8

104.2

105.0

104.7

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Oklahoma

122.3

121.6

121.7

121.9

Iowa St.

114.2

114.7

114.2

114.3

Baylor

113.7

113.8

113.1

113.5

Oklahoma St.

110.6

111.3

110.2

110.7

Kansas St.

110.8

110.5

110.5

110.6

Texas

109.9

110.1

109.6

109.9

T C U

108.8

111.0

109.2

109.7

Texas Tech

105.8

106.2

105.1

105.7

West Virginia

101.6

101.4

101.0

101.3

Kansas

96.7

97.7

96.8

97.1

Big 12 Averages

109.4

109.8

109.1

109.5

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Ohio St.

139.8

138.9

140.7

139.8

Michigan

127.2

126.0

127.7

127.0

Penn St.

123.5

122.6

123.5

123.2

Indiana

110.1

109.1

109.9

109.7

Michigan St.

108.9

108.1

108.2

108.4

Maryland

93.3

92.3

91.5

92.4

Rutgers

84.5

84.0

83.0

83.8

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Wisconsin

120.7

120.4

120.6

120.6

Minnesota

119.0

118.7

118.5

118.7

Iowa

118.6

117.1

118.4

118.0

Nebraska

106.1

106.3

105.2

105.9

Illinois

104.6

105.4

104.5

104.8

Purdue

103.9

103.7

103.3

103.6

Northwestern

101.5

100.5

99.9

100.7

Big Ten Averages

111.6

110.9

111.1

111.2

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Florida Atlantic

97.9

97.9

98.9

98.2

Western Kentucky

95.4

96.2

96.9

96.2

Marshall

92.2

92.0

93.0

92.4

Florida Int’l.

88.9

88.7

88.8

88.8

Middle Tennessee

88.8

88.2

88.8

88.6

Charlotte

87.7

88.0

88.2

88.0

Old Dominion

73.7

73.8

73.6

73.7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Louisiana Tech

94.1

94.3

94.1

94.1

Southern Miss.

94.3

93.2

94.6

94.0

U A B

88.8

90.8

89.5

89.7

North Texas

86.6

86.2

86.6

86.5

Rice

82.3

83.3

82.0

82.5

Texas-San Antonio

75.9

77.7

76.1

76.5

U T E P

68.6

72.2

69.0

69.9

CUSA Averages

86.8

87.3

87.2

87.1

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Notre Dame

120.3

119.3

120.4

120.0

BYU

102.6

102.8

102.3

102.6

Army

95.5

95.7

95.0

95.4

Liberty

89.3

90.4

89.4

89.7

New Mexico St.

75.8

77.7

75.6

76.3

Massachusetts

56.7

58.2

55.7

56.9

Indep. Averages

90.0

90.7

89.7

90.1

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Ohio

95.9

95.1

96.4

95.8

Buffalo

93.7

94.3

95.1

94.3

Miami (Ohio)

91.2

90.2

91.5

91.0

Kent St.

88.0

88.0

88.6

88.2

Bowling Green

69.2

68.6

68.9

68.9

Akron

66.8

66.5

65.7

66.3

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Western Michigan

98.5

97.6

98.2

98.1

Ball St.

90.1

89.7

90.1

90.0

Central Michigan

89.2

89.9

90.2

89.7

Eastern Michigan

88.8

89.1

89.4

89.1

Toledo

86.7

86.7

87.0

86.8

Northern Illinois

86.6

85.9

86.7

86.4

MAC Averages

87.1

86.8

87.3

87.1

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Boise St.

108.5

108.7

108.8

108.7

Air Force

104.1

105.8

105.0

105.0

Wyoming

98.8

100.6

99.2

99.5

Utah St.

96.9

96.4

97.5

96.9

Colorado St.

87.4

90.7

87.9

88.7

New Mexico

79.6

81.8

78.2

79.9

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

San Diego St.

97.1

98.7

96.9

97.6

Hawaii

95.6

97.0

94.8

95.8

Fresno St.

92.6

93.6

92.6

92.9

Nevada

90.4

92.0

89.9

90.8

San Jose St.

87.7

89.5

87.7

88.3

U N L V

83.1

84.7

82.7

83.5

MWC Averages

93.5

95.0

93.4

94.0

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Oregon

119.7

119.6

120.7

120.0

Washington

112.0

111.6

112.7

112.1

Washington St.

111.4

110.7

111.6

111.2

California

103.4

103.1

103.8

103.4

Oregon St.

101.0

101.9

101.0

101.3

Stanford

101.8

100.9

101.1

101.3

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Utah

126.8

125.9

127.5

126.7

U S C

111.0

111.6

111.8

111.5

Arizona St.

108.0

107.5

108.5

108.0

U C L A

99.0

98.7

98.6

98.8

Colorado

98.6

98.5

98.7

98.6

Arizona

96.9

96.6

96.4

96.6

Pac-12 Averages

107.5

107.2

107.7

107.5

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Georgia

127.2

125.4

127.3

126.6

Florida

125.9

123.3

125.7

124.9

Tennessee

110.7

110.4

110.1

110.4

Kentucky

110.0

108.7

108.9

109.2

Missouri

110.2

107.7

109.0

109.0

South Carolina

109.5

107.7

108.5

108.6

Vanderbilt

92.8

91.2

91.2

91.7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

L S U

131.3

129.1

131.3

130.6

Alabama

129.1

126.0

129.6

128.2

Auburn

122.6

120.8

122.2

121.9

Texas A&M

118.3

116.9

117.7

117.7

Mississippi St.

109.9

106.6

113.7

110.1

Ole Miss

107.7

106.9

107.7

107.4

Arkansas

87.7

87.6

86.8

87.4

SEC Averages

113.8

112.0

113.5

113.1

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Appalachian St.

107.5

106.8

106.8

107.0

Georgia Southern

96.7

96.6

96.2

96.5

Georgia St.

90.9

91.9

90.2

91.0

Troy

91.2

91.6

89.8

90.9

Coastal Carolina

87.3

88.4

87.0

87.6

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Louisiana

103.8

104.2

103.5

103.8

Arkansas St.

91.7

92.1

91.6

91.8

Louisiana-Monroe

85.8

86.4

85.3

85.9

Texas St.

78.8

79.3

78.2

78.8

South Alabama

75.3

77.8

75.1

76.1

SBC Averages

90.9

91.5

90.4

90.9

 

Conference Power Ratings

#

League

Average

1

Southeastern

113.1

2

Big Ten

111.2

3

Big 12

109.5

4

Pac-12

107.5

5

Atlantic Coast

104.7

6

American

97.4

7

Mountain West

94.0

8

Sun Belt

90.9

9

Independents

90.1

10

Conf. USA

87.1

11

Mid-American

87.1

 

 

PiRate Guess at Top 6

1

Ohio St.

2

LSU

3

Clemson

4

Georgia

5

Utah

6

Alabama

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1

Memphis

2

Cincinnati

3

Boise St.

4

Appalachian St.

5

Navy

 

The Conference Races

With one week to go before conference championship week, there are still some conference division races yet to be clinched. Here at PiRate Central, we will make it easy for you.

American Athletic Conference

Cincinnati has clinched the East Division, no matter what they do at Memphis.

Memphis clinches the West Division, if they beat Cincinnati, or Navy loses to Houston.

The winner of this week’s Cincinnati – Memphis game will host the AAC Championship Game.

Atlantic Coast

Clemson has clinched the Atlantic Division.

The winner of this week’s Virginia – Virginia Tech game wins the Coastal Division. 

If Clemson beats Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship Game, Virginia Tech has about a 95% chance of getting the Orange Bowl bid.

If Clemson beats Virginia in the ACC Championship Game, Virginia has about an 80% chance of getting the Orange Bowl bid.

Should Clemson be upset in the ACC Championship Game, either Virginia or Virginia Tech would get the Orange Bowl bid, and Clemson would likely knock out a team from the Southwest or West for the Cotton Bowl bid.

Big 12

Oklahoma and Baylor have already clinched the top two spots and will play in the Big 12 Championship Game.

If Baylor beats Kansas, and Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, then BU will be the top seed. Under any other scenario, Oklahoma will be the top seed.

If Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State and Baylor, the Sooners have a 30% chance of making it to the Playoffs, and at worst would be the Sugar Bowl representative for the league.

If Baylor beats Kansas and Oklahoma, there is only a 5% chance that BU would make the playoffs.

If the loser of the Big 12 Championship Game has two losses, that team has a 70% chance to earn the Cotton Bowl bid.

Big Ten

Ohio State has already clinched the East Division title even if Michigan upsets them in the Big House like they did in the big upset 50 years ago.

The winner of the Minnesota-Wisconsin game wins the West Division and has a better than 50-50 chance to earn the Rose Bowl bid if they lose to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game.

If Minnesota beats a 12-0 Ohio State team in the Big Ten Championship, the Gophers have a 30% chance to earn a Playoff bid.

Conference USA

This is the most difficult tie-breaker with one week to go, as both divisions are still up for grabs.

In the East, Florida Atlantic has a one-game lead over Marshall and Western Kentucky, but WKU has been eliminated from the race.

If FAU beats Southern Miss, or Marshall loses to Florida International, then FAU wins the division and hosts the CUSA Championship Game.

If FAU loses to Southern Miss, and Marshall beats FIU, then Marshall wins the East and has a chance to host the CUSA Championship Game.

In the West, there is currently a three-way tie with multiple possible outcomes.
Southern Miss plays Florida Atlantic in the key game. Louisiana Tech plays UTSA, and UAB plays North Texas.

If all three West co-leaders win or they all lose, Southern Miss will win the tiebreaker.

If Southern Miss loses and UAB wins, then UAB wins the West.

If Louisiana Tech wins and Southern Miss loses, then Louisiana Tech wins the division even if Southern Miss beats FAU.

If Southern Miss beats FAU and Louisiana Tech loses to UTSA, then Southern Miss wins the West even if UAB beats North Texas.

All five teams still alive can host the CUSA Championship Game based on a myriad of tiebreakers between multiple teams with 6-2 league records.

Independents (Not Including Notre Dame)

BYU has clinched the Hawaii Bowl Bid.

Liberty is bowl eligible

 

Mid-American

Miami of Ohio has already clinched the East Division.

Western Michigan will clinch the West Division with a win over Northern Illinois OR a loss by Central Michigan to Toledo.

Central Michigan will clinch the West Division with a win over Toledo AND a loss by Western Michigan.

Mountain West

Boise State has already clinched the Mountain Division Championship and has clinched the home field for the Championship Game.

Hawaii has already clinched the West Division Championship and will play at Boise State in the Championship Game.

Boise State still has a chance to make the Cotton Bowl by winning out, while the AAC champion has two overall losses.

Pac-12

Even after a disappointing upset loss to Arizona State, Oregon has already clinched the North Division Championship and still has a chance to go to the Rose Bowl with a slight chance to go to the Cotton Bowl.

Utah will win the South by beating a Colorado team that will be playing for bowl eligibility when the Buffs visit Salt Lake City. Should Utah lose this game, USC will win the South Division Championship.

Utah still has a less than 50-50 chance to make the Playoffs by beating Colorado and Oregon, but the Utes are most likely looking at a Rose Bowl bid. Should they lose to Oregon, Utah still has a 50-50 shot at the Cotton Bowl.

Southeastern

The SEC Championship Game is set between LSU and Georgia. See the feature below on sleuthing the SEC Bowl Tie-Ins and all the open spots.

Sun Belt

Appalachian State will play Louisiana in the Sun Belt Championship Game.

If both teams win this week or both teams lose, Appy State will be the host team based on their regular season win over the Ragin’ Cajuns. UL can only host if Appy State loses to Troy, while Louisiana beats UL-Monroe.

Appalachian State still has a minute chance to earn the Cotton Bowl bid. The Mountaineers must win out; Boise State must lose to Hawaii; and the AAC Champion must have two losses.

————————————–

The SEC Bowl Issue

With the possibility that two SEC teams will make the Playoffs, and then two more will earn New Year’s Six Bowl Games (Sugar and Orange), there is a chance that as many as five SEC tie-in bowls will not have bowl eligible SEC teams and will have to look elsewhere for at-large teams.

Two issues will affect the final week of the regular season. Currently, there are just eight bowl eligible teams–Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, and Kentucky in the East and LSU, Alabama, Auburn, and Texas A&M in the West.

Mississippi State and Missouri can become bowl eligible with wins this week. Missouri has a much easier final regular season game against 0-7 Arkansas, while Mississippi State must beat rival Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl. Missouri can also be eliminated if the NCAA rules negatively on an appeal between tomorrow and December 8.

The PiRates are old buckaroos, so we know that politics play a part in decisions. The SEC has no doubt twisted the NCAA’s arm to not decide on Missouri’s appeal until after the bowls have been played. The SEC needs as many bowl eligible teams as possible.

We wouldn’t be totally surprised if all the close calls in the Egg Bowl go in favor of Mississippi State. If the game is called without any bias, we actually believe Ole Miss is playing better football at this point of the season.

Being that the law of averages tends to side on the side of a split with two 5-6 teams playing to get to 6-6, we will say that one team makes it. For argument purposes, we will award Missouri the 6-6 record and Ole Miss the Egg Bowl Trophy.

At this point, there would be nine SEC Bowl Eligible teams.

Let’s say that LSU wins out and takes one Playoff spot, while Alabama beats Auburn and gets Playoff spot number two–once again politics playing a large part as the Committee can always come up with a reason to include a one-loss Tide team even if the entire first team is out with injuries.

Now, let’s slot Georgia into the Sugar Bowl and Florida into the Orange Bowl. That’s four teams with just five bowl eligible teams left.

The Citrus Bowl gets the next best team, and Auburn would be the logical choice here.

The Independence and Birmingham Bowls can already start looking for at-large teams at this point, as they are the bottom two in the contractual agreement.

That leaves the Outback, Gator, Texas, Belk, Music City, and Liberty Bowls hoping to get Tennessee, Kentucky, Missouri, and Texas A&M. Six bowls and four teams mean that two will be left at the conference altar.

The Outback and Gator Bowls are New Year’s Day Bowls. The SEC isn’t about to allow a 7-5 or 6-6 at-large team from 1,000-2,000 miles away take one of these prized spots. Put Tennessee in the Outback and Kentucky in the Gator.

With Texas A&M still available, it is obvious which bowl would be best for all. The Aggies would head to Houston to play in the Texas Bowl, which sort of has a gentleman’s agreement to get a better draw this year after taking Vanderbilt last year. A Texas A&M-Texas game could be arranged for the Texas Bowl, and it would be a sellout with tickets getting scalped.

That leaves Missouri as the last bowl team. Missouri played in the Liberty Bowl last year, so they would not return to Memphis. The Tigers already played in Nashville against Vanderbilt, and even though Nashville is the hottest destination in the South if not the entire nation, I don’t see the Music City Bowl getting an opportunity to invite the Tigers for their second trip of the season. Put Missouri in the Belk Bowl.

This would leave the Music City and Liberty Bowls out in the cold as the two bowls that would have to find at-large opponents. There will be extra Mountain West, Conference USA, and Mid-American teams that are bowl eligible. The ACC could send Virginia, Wake Forest, or Louisville to Nashville, while the Big 12 could send Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas, or TCU to the Liberty Bowl. We believe that Kansas State or Iowa State is the most likely team to go to Memphis.

If the Mountain West has extra teams, there is a chance that the league would arrange for one of their better teams to come Southeast to one of the two Volunteer State bowls. Air Force, San Diego State, or Utah State might be where the Liberty Bowl can look.

The Music City Bowl will then likely need a Mid-American Conference team, and likewise, a deal could be struck with the MAC to send a 6-6 team to a regular contracted bowl, while bringing the MAC Champion to Nashville. The organizers of the Music City Bowl would probably like to pay Tom Brady to suit up for Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl.

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Note:  This Section Has Been Edited Late Sunday Night.  It was brought to our attention that the Hawaii Bowl slightly changes their tie-ins.  We originally had this bowl featuring BYU if they were bowl eligible or a Mountain West team or basically a Bowl Eligible Hawaii team versus a team from the American Athletic Conference.  The bowl changed to BYU if bowl eligible versus either an AAC or Mountain West team, but if Hawaii is bowl eligible and not the MWC Champion, then Hawaii gets this bid.

Thus, it started a chain reaction where we had to move about 20 teams from one bowl to another.  Here is the latest version of our Bowl Projections.

 

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Buffalo

Charlotte

Frisco

AAC

At-large

SMU

[UAB]

Cure

AAC

SBC

Navy

Georgia St.

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

Southern Miss.

San Diego St.

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Central Florida

Miami (O)

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Western Michigan

Arkansas St.

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

Boise St.

Washington St.

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

Louisiana Tech

Appalachian St.

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Cincinnati

Florida Atlantic

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC/MWC

BYU

Hawaii

Independence

ACC

SEC

Florida St.

[Marshall]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

Miami (Fla.)

Michigan St.

Military

ACC

AAC

North Carolina

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

Pittsburgh

Illinois

Texas

Big 12

SEC

Texas

Texas A&M

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington

Michigan

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

Kansas St.

[Nevada]

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Notre Dame

Oklahoma St.

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Memphis

Utah

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

Western Ky.

TCU

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Arizona St.

Iowa

Music City

SEC

ACC

[Central Michigan]

Louisville

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Virginia Tech

Florida

Belk

ACC

SEC

Wake Forest

Missouri

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

Virginia

California

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

Iowa St.

[Liberty]

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Louisiana

Air Force

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Baylor

USC

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Auburn

Wisconsin

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Penn St.

Tennessee

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Minnesota

Oregon

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Oklahoma

Georgia

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Tulane

[Florida Int’l.]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Kentucky

Indiana

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Toledo

Wyoming

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

Nebraska

Utah St.

Mobile Alabama

MAC

SBC

Eastern Michigan

Georgia Southern

 

 

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

Georgia

Ohio St.

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Clemson

LSU

 

 

Championship

Fiesta

Peach

Georgia

Clemson

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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