PiRate Ratings College Football–Championship Week

Championship Week Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Liberty	New Mexico St.	9.4	9.2	10.0
Washington	Oregon	-10.4	-10.0	-9.7
Texas	Oklahoma St.	20.8	19.8	20.8
Toledo	Miami (O)	3.7	3.4	3.8
UNLV	Boise St.	-2.5	-2.1	-2.4
Georgia	Alabama	5.1	3.9	3.9
Tulane	SMU	-1.6	-2.8	-1.5
Troy	Appalachian St.	8.7	7.4	8.5
Michigan	Iowa	24.7	24.2	25.7
Florida St.	Louisville	9.3	9.1	8.6

Championship Week Schedule

Friday, December 1
Home	Visitor	Time (EST)	Network
Liberty	New Mexico St.	7:00 PM	CBSSN
Washington (Las Vegas)	Oregon	8:00 PM	ABC
Saturday, December 2
Home	Visitor	Time (EST)	Network
Texas (Arlington, TX)	Oklahoma St.	12:00 PM	ABC
Toledo (Detroit)	Miami (O)	12:00 PM	ESPN
UNLV	Boise St.	3:00 PM	FOX
Georgia (Atlanta)	Alabama	4:00 PM	CBS
Tulane	SMU	4:00 PM	ABC
Troy	Appalachian St.	4:00 PM	ESPN
Michigan (Indianapolis)	Iowa	8:00 PM	FOX
Florida St. (Charlotte)	Louisville	8:00 PM	ABC

PiRate Ratings–November 26, 2023

#	Team	Rating
1	Michigan	133.5
2	Georgia	132.4
3	Oregon	131.5
4	Ohio St.	129.8
5	Alabama	128.1
6	Penn St.	127.4
7	Texas	126.7
8	L S U	125.4
9	Florida St.	124.9
10	Notre Dame	124.3
11	Washington	121.4
12	Oklahoma	119.8
13	Kansas St.	119.5
14	Texas A&M	119.0
15	Missouri	118.8
16	Ole Miss	117.2
17	Arizona	116.8
18	Clemson	116.8
19	Oregon St.	116.6
20	Utah	116.1
21	Louisville	115.9
22	Tennessee	115.5
23	Kansas	113.3
24	NC State	113.0
25	U S C	112.2
26	Auburn	112.0
27	North Carolina	111.0
28	Iowa St.	110.8
29	Kentucky	110.7
30	Florida	109.7
31	Miami (Fla.)	109.5
32	Maryland	109.3
33	T C U	109.3
34	SMU	109.2
35	Duke	109.0
36	U C L A	108.7
37	Iowa	108.6
38	Wisconsin	108.4
39	South Carolina	108.2
40	Texas Tech	107.5
41	West Virginia	107.3
42	California	106.9
43	Central Florida	106.8
44	Oklahoma St.	106.7
45	Washington St.	106.6
46	James Madison	105.5
47	Virginia Tech	105.5
48	Illinois	105.3
49	Troy	105.0
50	Tulane	104.7
51	Georgia Tech	104.3
52	Arkansas	104.1
53	Mississippi St.	103.4
54	Nebraska	103.0
55	Purdue	103.0
56	Boise St.	102.4
57	Minnesota	102.2
58	Northwestern	102.1
59	BYU	102.1
60	UTSA	101.5
61	Rutgers	100.8
62	Syracuse	100.6
63	Liberty	100.5
64	Toledo	99.6
65	Appalachian St.	99.3
66	Memphis	99.3
67	South Alabama	99.2
68	Pittsburgh	99.2
69	Baylor	99.1
70	San Jose St.	99.0
71	Wake Forest	98.5
72	Wyoming	97.8
73	Air Force	97.8
74	Indiana	97.8
75	U N L V	97.6
76	Colorado	97.3
77	Virginia	96.7
78	Houston	96.7
79	Michigan St.	96.6
80	Arizona St.	96.3
81	Miami (Ohio)	96.0
82	Ohio	94.7
83	Cincinnati	94.6
84	Boston College	94.1
85	Fresno St.	94.0
86	New Mexico St.	93.5
87	Louisiana	93.5
88	Bowling Green	92.6
89	Stanford	92.2
90	Jacksonville St.	92.0
91	Vanderbilt	91.9
92	Rice	91.1
93	N. Illinois	90.6
94	Florida Atlantic	90.4
95	W. Kentucky	90.2
96	Army	90.2
97	Navy	89.9
98	Coastal Carolina	89.8
99	North Texas	89.7
100	South Florida	89.1
101	East Carolina	88.3
102	Marshall	88.3
103	San Diego St.	88.2
104	Georgia St.	88.2
105	Ga. Southern	87.3
106	Texas St.	87.2
107	Colorado St.	87.1
108	Old Dominion	87.0
109	Arkansas St.	86.8
110	Utah St.	85.9
111	UAB	85.8
112	Connecticut	85.5
113	Western Mich.	85.4
114	Middle Tennessee	85.2
115	Ball St.	85.2
116	Central Mich.	84.7
117	Buffalo	84.7
118	Eastern Mich.	83.8
119	Southern Miss.	83.5
120	Tulsa	82.6
121	Sam Houston	81.0
122	U T E P	80.9
123	Hawaii	80.0
124	New Mexico	79.9
125	Akron	77.8
126	Temple	77.6
127	Louisiana Tech	76.8
128	UL-Monroe	76.6
129	Nevada	76.2
130	Massachusetts	76.0
131	Charlotte	74.8
132	Florida Int’l.	73.6
133	Kent St.	73.3

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
SMU	109.4	109.0	109.2	109.2
Tulane	105.3	103.6	105.2	104.7
UTSA	101.4	101.6	101.6	101.5
Memphis	99.7	99.1	99.1	99.3
Rice	91.2	90.8	91.2	91.1
Florida Atlantic	90.7	90.4	90.3	90.4
Navy	90.4	89.1	90.3	89.9
North Texas	89.7	89.4	90.1	89.7
South Florida	89.2	88.7	89.3	89.1
East Carolina	88.9	88.2	87.9	88.3
UAB	85.5	86.2	85.7	85.8
Tulsa	82.6	82.8	82.5	82.6
Temple	78.1	77.4	77.3	77.6
Charlotte	75.1	75.1	74.3	74.8
AAC	91.2	90.8	91.0	91.0
Atlantic Coast Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Florida St.	125.4	124.5	124.7	124.9
Clemson	116.8	116.3	117.2	116.8
Louisville	116.1	115.4	116.1	115.9
NC State	112.8	112.8	113.3	113.0
North Carolina	111.4	110.6	111.1	111.0
Miami (Fla.)	109.4	109.5	109.7	109.5
Duke	108.8	109.0	109.2	109.0
Virginia Tech	105.0	106.0	105.4	105.5
Georgia Tech	104.6	104.1	104.3	104.3
Syracuse	101.6	100.2	99.8	100.6
Pittsburgh	99.4	99.3	98.8	99.2
Wake Forest	98.9	98.5	98.0	98.5
Virginia	96.8	96.8	96.5	96.7
Boston College	94.5	94.1	93.6	94.1
ACC	107.3	106.9	107.0	107.1
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Texas	127.1	126.0	127.0	126.7
Oklahoma	119.9	119.5	120.0	119.8
Kansas St.	119.9	119.1	119.4	119.5
Kansas	113.6	112.8	113.4	113.3
Iowa St.	110.9	110.5	110.9	110.8
T C U	109.8	108.7	109.3	109.3
Texas Tech	108.1	106.7	107.6	107.5
West Virginia	107.7	106.6	107.8	107.3
Central Florida	107.2	106.7	106.5	106.8
Oklahoma St.	106.8	106.7	106.7	106.7
BYU	102.1	101.6	102.5	102.1
Baylor	99.6	98.6	99.2	99.1
Houston	97.0	96.6	96.4	96.7
Cincinnati	94.7	94.7	94.2	94.6
Big 12	108.9	108.2	108.6	108.6
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Michigan	133.0	133.0	134.4	133.5
Ohio St.	129.3	129.1	130.9	129.8
Penn St.	127.1	127.0	127.9	127.4
Maryland	109.2	108.8	110.1	109.3
Rutgers	100.5	101.0	100.8	100.8
Indiana	98.0	98.2	97.1	97.8
Michigan St.	96.8	96.5	96.4	96.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Iowa	108.3	108.8	108.7	108.6
Wisconsin	108.5	107.9	108.9	108.4
Illinois	105.3	104.9	105.7	105.3
Nebraska	102.7	103.0	103.3	103.0
Purdue	103.2	102.7	103.0	103.0
Minnesota	102.2	102.1	102.4	102.2
Northwestern	101.9	101.7	102.6	102.1
Big Ten	109.0	108.9	109.4	109.1
Conference USA
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Liberty	99.7	101.2	100.6	100.5
New Mexico St.	92.8	94.5	93.1	93.5
Jacksonville St.	91.8	92.9	91.4	92.0
W. Kentucky	90.0	90.7	90.0	90.2
Middle Tennessee	84.8	86.4	84.6	85.2
Sam Houston	79.4	82.0	81.5	81.0
U T E P	79.9	82.2	80.5	80.9
Louisiana Tech	76.8	78.0	75.8	76.8
Florida Int’l.	73.2	74.7	72.8	73.6
CUSA	85.4	87.0	85.6	86.0
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	123.9	124.1	124.7	124.3
Army	90.1	90.2	90.3	90.2
Connecticut	85.4	85.4	85.8	85.5
Massachusetts	76.0	76.4	75.7	76.0
Independents	93.8	94.0	94.1	94.0
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Ohio)	95.0	96.5	96.5	96.0
Ohio	94.0	95.2	94.7	94.7
Bowling Green	91.8	93.0	92.8	92.6
Buffalo	84.2	85.3	84.5	84.7
Akron	77.0	78.6	77.8	77.8
Kent St.	73.4	74.2	72.3	73.3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Toledo	98.6	99.9	100.4	99.6
N. Illinois	89.7	91.1	91.1	90.6
Western Mich.	84.5	86.2	85.4	85.4
Ball St.	84.3	85.7	85.5	85.2
Central Mich.	84.2	85.5	84.5	84.7
Eastern Mich.	83.0	84.5	83.9	83.8
MAC	86.6	88.0	87.5	87.4
Mountain West Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	101.9	102.5	102.8	102.4
San Jose St.	98.1	99.6	99.2	99.0
Wyoming	97.5	98.0	98.0	97.8
Air Force	96.9	98.2	98.3	97.8
U N L V	96.9	97.9	97.9	97.6
Fresno St.	94.1	94.1	93.8	94.0
San Diego St.	87.6	88.8	88.2	88.2
Colorado St.	86.7	87.8	86.8	87.1
Utah St.	85.4	87.0	85.3	85.9
Hawaii	79.7	81.1	79.4	80.0
New Mexico	80.1	80.4	79.2	79.9
Nevada	75.9	77.3	75.4	76.2
MWC	90.1	91.1	90.4	90.5
Pac-12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oregon	131.8	130.4	132.2	131.5
Washington	121.4	120.5	122.4	121.4
Arizona	116.8	116.6	117.0	116.8
Oregon St.	116.5	116.4	117.1	116.6
Utah	116.8	114.8	116.7	116.1
U S C	113.1	111.6	111.9	112.2
U C L A	109.1	108.3	108.7	108.7
California	107.4	106.3	107.0	106.9
Washington St.	106.7	106.2	106.8	106.6
Colorado	98.1	97.4	96.5	97.3
Arizona St.	96.8	95.8	96.4	96.3
Stanford	93.1	92.2	91.3	92.2
Pac-12	110.6	109.7	110.3	110.2
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	132.8	131.6	132.9	132.4
Missouri	119.2	118.0	119.2	118.8
Tennessee	116.0	115.4	115.1	115.5
Kentucky	110.9	110.3	110.8	110.7
Florida	110.3	108.8	110.0	109.7
South Carolina	108.7	108.1	107.6	108.2
Vanderbilt	93.1	91.2	91.4	91.9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	127.7	127.7	129.0	128.1
L S U	125.6	124.5	126.1	125.4
Texas A&M	118.6	119.0	119.5	119.0
Ole Miss	118.1	116.2	117.2	117.2
Auburn	112.4	111.2	112.3	112.0
Arkansas	104.5	103.7	104.1	104.1
Mississippi St.	104.0	103.2	102.9	103.4
SEC	114.4	113.5	114.2	114.0
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
James Madison	105.1	105.9	105.6	105.5
Appalachian St.	99.1	99.8	99.1	99.3
Coastal Carolina	90.0	90.1	89.3	89.8
Marshall	88.5	88.3	87.9	88.3
Georgia St.	87.9	88.4	88.2	88.2
Ga. Southern	87.4	88.0	86.4	87.3
Old Dominion	86.5	87.8	86.8	87.0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Troy	105.3	104.7	105.2	105.0
South Alabama	99.5	98.8	99.3	99.2
Louisiana	93.2	93.8	93.4	93.5
Texas St.	87.0	88.2	86.5	87.2
Arkansas St.	87.2	87.1	86.2	86.8
Southern Miss.	83.6	83.4	83.5	83.5
UL-Monroe	77.0	76.7	76.0	76.6
Sun Belt	91.2	91.5	91.0	91.2

Conference Ratings

#	Conference	Rating
1	SEC	114.0
2	P12	110.2
3	BTN	109.1
4	B12	108.6
5	ACC	107.1
6	IND	94.0
7	SUN	91.2
8	AAC	91.0
9	MWC	90.5
10	MAC	87.4
11	CUS	86.0

Playoff & Bowl Projections

We now know what 82 teams will be in the bowls, and it is a major disservice to a Service Academy. Navy will be 6-6 if they defeat Army on December 9. Yet, even if the Midshipmen win 42-0, they will be left out of a bowl, while a 5-7 Minnesota team gets in. Because CBS demands this game be televised after all other games have played, it is scheduled for six days after the bowl bids are handed out. In 2009, the Eagle Bank Bowl waited for the Army in the Army-Navy game, with a provisional bid going to UCLA if Navy beat Army. When Navy won, UCLA got the bowl bid.

It’s different this time around. The bowl season commences just one Saturday after the Army-Navy game, and travel arrangements and other logistics need the exra week to ready the bowl games. Thus, Navy will not be bowl eligible a week from today. They will be 5-6.

With that out of the way, officially second year transition teams James Madison and Jacksonville State are guaranteed bowl bids now. That’s just the tip of the iceberg in the normal state of things. The Southeastern Conference is quite unbalanced this year. Georgia, Alabama, Missouri, and Ole Miss may all end up in the final Top 12 of the Playoff Rankings. Technically, they need to be in the top 11, because the 12th spot in the New Year’s Six Bowls goes to the top Group of 5 team. If all four SEC schools finish in the top 11, they will go to NY6 Bowls. LSU would then be the top-rated team remaining, and the Bayou Bengals would automatically fill the Citrus Bowl spot as the SEC by-laws state. But, at that point, there would only be four remaining bowl-eligible teams for the remaining eight SEC bowl tie-ins. The Birmingham and Gasparilla Bowls already know they must find substitute teams, but at least one if not two other bowls from a list that includes the Reliaquest, Gator, Texas, Duke’s Mayo, Liberty, and Music City Bowls will also have to find at-large teams.

At the same time, the Sun Belt Conference has 12 bowl-eligible teams, and the whole dozen will get bids. In order to avoid repeat games with two SBC teams playing each other, the folks at ESPN, who control over a dozen bowl games, are going to have to spread SBC teams all over the place. And, seven of the 12 will go with 6-6 records. Those bowls that would normally have an SEC school will now have to look at a small 6-6 SBC team. Next year, with the 12-team playoff gobbling up eight more teams, either multiple bowls will have to find 5-7 teams, or some may become defunct.

Now, for the even harder part. What about the four teams that really matter? Can any conference send multiple teams to the Playoffs? Let’s take a look.

ACC

Louisville can do no better than get to the Orange Bowl after Kentucky won the Bluegrass battle. If the Cardinals beat a limping Florida State team in the ACC Championship Game, no ACC team has a chance to make the Playoffs. If Florida State wins in a very lackluster manner like they did against a mediocre Florida team, the Seminoles are still not guaranteed a spot in the playoffs, but it would be really hard to keep a 13-0 team out in favor of a 12-1 team.

Big 12

If Texas handily defeats Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship Game, the Longhorns should still take preference over a 12-1 Alabama team, but that’s not a guarantee. An 11-1 Alabama team that lost to a USC team that finished 11-1 once won a national championship over the Trojans. Alabama also won another title at 9-1-1, when there were multiple 10-1 teams. There are separate rules for Alabama, just like there are for Kentucky in basketball. If Oklahoma State beats the Longhorns, then the Big 12 gets shut out.

Big Ten

Dare we even discuss Iowa beating Michigan at Lucas Oil Stadium this week? Jim Harbaugh returns to the sidelines, and Iowa has no offense against a top-rated Wolverine defense. Michigan has a 95%+ chance of winning, and they will be either the #1 or #2 seed, depending on what happens in Atlanta.

Ohio State still has a chance to slip in at #4, but the Buckeyes need some help. Georgia must beat Alabama, and Oklahoma State might need to beat Texas. It might also help if Washington beats Oregon.

Pac-12

We can see no scenario where the winner of this week’s Washington-Oregon game fails to make the Playoffs. A 13-0 UW team has a 100% chance to get in. A 12-1 Oregon team that split with a 12-1 UW team has close to a 100% chance to get in (maybe only if Michigan and Georgia both lose, while Texas wins by 35 or more points over Okie State or Florida State beats Louisville).

If Oregon beats Washington in overtime, and Florida State, Texas, and Alabama all lose, their is an infinitesimal chance that the Ducks and Huskies both make the Playoffs if they both jump over Ohio State in this week’s poll.

SEC

Obviously, the winner of the Championship Game in Atlanta is in, no matter what else happens in the other games. The SEC has dominated the Playoffs since their creation, and a 12-1 Alabama team has a 99% chance of getting into the field. A 12-1 Georgia team might have a 75% chance of getting into the field, even over a 13-0 Florida State or 13-0 Washington team.

If Georgia beats Alabama, then the Tide are likely headed to the Cotton, Orange, or Peach Bowl.

PiRate Ratings Guess

This folllowing guess is not related to the actual PiRate Ratings. This is a personal belief as to how all of the games turn out this week. We believe that Louisville has a slightly better than 50-50 chance of beating a wounded Florida State team that is limping home, and thus the Seminoles will get knocked out. We believe that Georgia will win a hard-fought game over Alabama, and thus the Tide is reduced to a NY6 Bowl. We believe Michigan trounces Iowa, to lock up a bid, and we believe that Oregon will get revenge over Washington to earn a bid. That leaves spot #4 up for grabs between Texas, Washington, and Ohio State. Texas has a somewhat easier go of it, as Oklahoma State is not a great team. We think the Longhorns can win this game by 17 to 24 points, and it will allow them to sneak in and claim the last spot.

Take a look at the pairings.

Bowl	Team	Team
Myrtle Beach	South Florida	Georgia Southern
New Orleans	Jacksonville St.	Troy
Cure	Air Force	Appalachian St.
New Mexico	New Mexico St.	Fresno St.
Los Angeles	Utah	Boise St.
Independence	West Virginia	California
Bahamas	Western Kentucky	Bowling Green
Frisco	Utah St.	Arkansas St.
Boca Raton	Memphis	Coastal Carolina
Gasparilla	Syracuse	Georgia St.
Camellia	Toledo	James Madison
Birmingham	Miami (Fla.)	South Alabama
Idaho Potato	Miami (O)	Wyoming
Armed Forces	UTSA	Texas St.
68 Ventures (Mobile)	Ohio	Louisiana
Las Vegas	Northwestern	UCLA
Hawaii	Tulane	UNLV
Quick Lane	Northern Illinois	[Marshall]
First Responder	Georgia Tech	Old Dominion
Guaranteed Rate	Central Florida	Minnesota (5-7)
Military	Virginia Tech	SMU
Duke’s Mayo	Duke	Tennessee
Holiday	Notre Dame	Oregon St.
Texas	Kansas	Texas A&M
Fenway	Boston College	Rice
Pinstripe	Clemson	Wisconsin
Pop-Tarts	Louisville	Kansas St.
Alamo	Oklahoma St.	Arizona
Gator	North Carolina	Auburn
Tony the Tiger (Sun)	North Carolina St.	USC
Cotton	Oklahoma	Alabama
Liberty	Iowa St.	Kentucky
Peach	Penn St.	Missouri
Music City	Rutgers	[Texas Tech]
Arizona	Eastern Michigan	San Jose St.
Orange	Florida St.	Ohio St.
Reliaquest	Iowa	LSU
Fiesta	Washington	Liberty
Citrus	Maryland	Ole Miss
Rose	Michigan	Oregon
Sugar	Georgia	Texas
National Championship	Michigan	Georgia

Teams in [Brackets] are fill-ins for conferences that didn’t produce enough bowl teams

PiRate Ratings College Football–November 7-11, 2023

This Week’s Spreads

FBS vs. FBS

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Northern Illinois	Ball St.	11.7	11.8	12.9
Western Michigan	Central Michigan	5.4	6.1	6.1
Buffalo	Ohio	-4.8	-4.7	-5.0
Miami (O)	Akron	20.5	20.8	22.5
Kent St.	Bowling Green	-8.4	-8.4	-10.5
Toledo	Eastern Michigan	20.2	19.6	21.0
Louisville	Virginia	24.8	24.2	26.2
Louisiana	Southern Miss.	12.5	13.6	13.4
SMU	North Texas	17.6	17.4	16.0
UNLV	Wyoming	2.1	3.2	2.5
Georgia	Ole Miss	11.9	12.3	12.0
Florida St.	Miami (Fla.)	23.1	22.2	22.5
Washington	Utah	4.7	5.8	5.0
Oregon	USC	17.5	17.4	19.1
TCU	Texas	-12.9	-13.1	-13.8
Oklahoma	West Virginia	10.5	11.7	10.6
Missouri	Tennessee	-4.4	-5.6	-4.2
LSU	Florida	18.3	18.6	19.2
Oregon St.	Stanford	22.0	22.7	24.4
UCLA	Arizona St.	18.1	18.4	18.1
Kansas	Texas Tech	4.0	4.4	3.7
Illinois	Indiana	11.2	10.1	13.0
Iowa	Rutgers	7.6	7.5	7.5
Purdue	Minnesota	0.2	-0.9	-0.8
Wisconsin	Northwestern	15.0	14.7	15.3
Colorado	Arizona	-8.8	-9.1	-10.6
Wake Forest	North Carolina St.	-6.1	-6.0	-6.7
Houston	Cincinnati	5.8	5.2	5.8
Marshall	Georgia Southern	0.7	-0.2	0.5
Penn St.	Michigan	-4.8	-4.9	-5.1
Kentucky	Alabama	-10.9	-11.4	-12.2
Tulane	Tulsa	29.5	26.5	29.4
Nebraska	Maryland	-1.6	-0.4	-1.5
South Carolina	Vanderbilt	14.0	15.4	14.3
Boston College	Virginia Tech	1.6	0.3	1.0
Clemson	Georgia Tech	15.6	15.3	15.9
South Florida	Temple	13.9	14.0	15.3
Liberty	Old Dominion	14.0	14.0	14.9
James Madison	Connecticut	16.5	17.6	17.0
Charlotte	Memphis	-21.2	-20.1	-21.3
Georgia St.	Appalachian St.	-0.1	0.3	1.4
Louisiana-Monroe	Troy	-24.8	-24.2	-26.4
Kansas St.	Baylor	22.2	22.2	21.7
Louisiana Tech	Sam Houston St.	7.9	6.6	5.1
Utah St.	Nevada	12.8	13.0	13.5
Central Florida	Oklahoma St.	-4.3	-5.3	-6.0
Middle Tennessee	Florida Int’l.	11.3	10.9	11.8
Western Kentucky	New Mexico St.	8.2	6.9	8.5
Syracuse	Pittsburgh	2.4	0.9	1.4
Navy	UAB	6.7	4.0	6.6
Coastal Carolina	Texas St.	9.0	7.8	9.3
Arkansas	Auburn	0.7	1.3	0.9
California	Washington St.	3.6	2.9	3.0
Florida Atlantic	East Carolina	6.9	7.8	8.5
South Alabama	Arkansas St.	18.4	17.4	19.7
Colorado St.	San Diego St.	4.7	5.0	5.3
Ohio St.	Michigan St.	33.7	33.6	35.6
Texas A&M	Mississippi St.	13.0	14.6	15.6
UTSA	Rice	10.2	11.3	10.3
North Carolina	Duke	5.6	4.6	5.0
Boise St.	New Mexico	25.5	25.6	27.9
BYU	Iowa St.	0.8	0.7	1.4
San Jose St.	Fresno St.	-4.6	-3.1	-3.6
Hawaii	Air Force	-19.9	-19.9	-23.0

FBS vs. FCS

FBS	FCS		Margin
Army	Holy Cross		14.5

Teams Not Playing

Jacksonville St.

Massachusetts

Notre Dame

UTEP

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#	Team	Rating
1	Michigan	134.2
2	Oregon	129.8
3	Georgia	129.3
4	Ohio St.	129.2
5	Florida St.	126.5
6	Penn St.	126.2
7	Alabama	125.5
8	L S U	124.9
9	Texas	123.9
10	Notre Dame	122.6
11	Washington	122.3
12	Kansas St.	120.7
13	Tennessee	120.6
14	Ole Miss	120.2
15	Utah	120.1
16	Louisville	118.9
17	Texas A&M	117.2
18	Oklahoma	117.1
19	Clemson	115.8
20	Oregon St.	114.9
21	U S C	114.8
22	North Carolina	113.7
23	Auburn	113.1
24	Missouri	112.9
25	U C L A	112.2
26	Arizona	111.7
27	Kansas	111.6
28	Arkansas	111.1
29	Kentucky	111.0
30	Oklahoma St.	110.7
31	Texas Tech	110.6
32	Wisconsin	110.5
33	Duke	110.1
34	NC State	109.3
35	Florida	109.2
36	West Virginia	109.1
37	T C U	108.7
38	Iowa	107.6
39	Maryland	106.9
40	Miami (Fla.)	106.9
41	Illinois	106.0
42	South Carolina	106.0
43	SMU	105.9
44	Mississippi St.	105.9
45	Minnesota	105.8
46	Tulane	105.7
47	Iowa St.	105.6
48	Troy	105.6
49	BYU	103.6
50	California	103.4
51	Washington St.	103.2
52	Georgia Tech	103.2
53	Rutgers	103.1
54	Nebraska	102.8
55	Central Florida	102.5
56	Purdue	102.3
57	Fresno St.	102.1
58	James Madison	101.8
59	Air Force	101.8
60	Baylor	101.6
61	Wake Forest	101.0
62	Pittsburgh	100.4
63	South Alabama	100.4
64	Memphis	100.3
65	Virginia Tech	100.0
66	Boise St.	99.9
67	Liberty	99.6
68	Syracuse	99.5
69	UTSA	99.5
70	Toledo	99.4
71	Colorado	99.1
72	Boston College	98.5
73	Houston	98.4
74	Michigan St.	97.9
75	Indiana	97.6
76	Northwestern	97.5
77	Arizona St.	97.1
78	Virginia	96.8
79	Miami (Ohio)	96.4
80	Cincinnati	95.9
81	San Jose St.	95.9
82	U N L V	95.7
83	Wyoming	95.6
84	Stanford	94.9
85	Ohio	94.6
86	Vanderbilt	94.4
87	Coastal Carolina	93.9
88	Appalachian St.	93.1
89	Florida Atlantic	93.0
90	W. Kentucky	92.5
91	Louisiana	92.5
92	Georgia St.	91.2
93	Rice	90.9
94	N. Illinois	90.7
95	Navy	90.7
96	North Texas	90.3
97	Ga. Southern	90.2
98	Army	89.6
99	Jacksonville St.	89.3
100	Western Mich.	89.2
101	South Florida	89.2
102	Utah St.	88.3
103	Texas St.	88.2
104	Marshall	88.1
105	Bowling Green	87.9
106	East Carolina	87.8
107	Colorado St.	87.8
108	UAB	87.4
109	Old Dominion	87.3
110	Buffalo	87.3
111	Connecticut	87.2
112	New Mexico St.	87.2
113	San Diego St.	85.8
114	Central Mich.	85.3
115	Arkansas St.	84.4
116	Middle Tennessee	83.8
117	Eastern Mich.	82.1
118	Louisiana Tech	81.9
119	Southern Miss.	81.8
120	Ball St.	81.6
121	U T E P	80.3
122	Tulsa	79.7
123	Nevada	78.2
124	UL-Monroe	78.0
125	Sam Houston	77.9
126	Hawaii	77.9
127	Temple	77.3
128	Akron	77.1
129	Charlotte	76.9
130	Kent St.	76.7
131	New Mexico	76.6
132	Massachusetts	76.1
133	Florida Int’l.	75.0

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
SMU	106.3	105.8	105.6	105.9
Tulane	106.7	104.2	106.2	105.7
Memphis	100.7	100.0	100.1	100.3
UTSA	99.3	99.8	99.4	99.5
Florida Atlantic	92.9	93.1	93.2	93.0
Rice	91.1	90.5	91.1	90.9
Navy	91.3	89.6	91.2	90.7
North Texas	90.1	89.8	91.1	90.3
South Florida	89.2	88.6	89.7	89.2
East Carolina	88.5	87.7	87.2	87.8
UAB	87.0	88.0	87.1	87.4
Tulsa	79.7	80.2	79.3	79.7
Temple	77.8	77.1	76.9	77.3
Charlotte	77.0	77.4	76.3	76.9
AAC	91.3	90.8	91.0	91.0
Atlantic Coast Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Florida St.	126.9	126.1	126.4	126.5
Louisville	118.8	118.2	119.5	118.9
Clemson	116.0	115.3	116.0	115.8
North Carolina	113.9	113.2	114.1	113.7
Duke	109.8	110.1	110.5	110.1
NC State	109.4	109.1	109.3	109.3
Miami (Fla.)	106.8	106.9	106.9	106.9
Georgia Tech	103.5	103.0	103.1	103.2
Wake Forest	101.3	101.0	100.5	101.0
Pittsburgh	100.6	100.7	100.0	100.4
Virginia Tech	99.6	100.7	99.8	100.0
Syracuse	100.6	99.1	98.8	99.5
Boston College	98.8	98.5	98.3	98.5
Virginia	97.1	97.0	96.3	96.8
ACC	107.4	107.1	107.1	107.2
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Texas	124.3	123.2	124.3	123.9
Kansas St.	121.0	120.3	120.7	120.7
Oklahoma	117.1	116.9	117.2	117.1
Kansas	112.1	111.1	111.6	111.6
Oklahoma St.	110.5	110.7	110.9	110.7
Texas Tech	111.1	109.7	110.9	110.6
West Virginia	109.6	108.2	109.7	109.1
T C U	109.4	108.1	108.5	108.7
Iowa St.	106.0	105.4	105.5	105.6
BYU	103.8	103.1	104.0	103.6
Central Florida	103.2	102.4	101.9	102.5
Baylor	101.9	101.1	101.9	101.6
Houston	98.6	98.4	98.3	98.4
Cincinnati	95.8	96.2	95.5	95.9
Big 12	108.9	108.2	108.6	108.6
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Michigan	133.6	133.7	135.2	134.2
Ohio St.	128.8	128.4	130.3	129.2
Penn St.	125.8	125.8	127.0	126.2
Maryland	107.1	106.2	107.4	106.9
Rutgers	102.7	103.4	103.1	103.1
Michigan St.	98.1	97.8	97.7	97.9
Indiana	97.9	98.2	96.6	97.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	110.5	109.8	111.1	110.5
Iowa	107.3	107.9	107.7	107.6
Illinois	106.0	105.4	106.6	106.0
Minnesota	105.4	105.9	106.2	105.8
Nebraska	102.5	102.9	102.9	102.8
Purdue	102.6	102.0	102.4	102.3
Northwestern	97.5	97.1	97.8	97.5
Big Ten	109.0	108.9	109.4	109.1
Conference USA
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Liberty	98.7	100.2	100.0	99.6
W. Kentucky	92.2	92.7	92.6	92.5
Jacksonville St.	89.2	90.1	88.5	89.3
New Mexico St.	86.5	88.3	86.7	87.2
Middle Tennessee	83.4	84.9	83.2	83.8
Louisiana Tech	81.8	83.1	81.0	81.9
U T E P	79.4	81.7	79.7	80.3
Sam Houston	76.3	79.0	78.4	77.9
Florida Int’l.	74.6	76.4	73.9	75.0
CUSA	84.7	86.3	84.9	85.3
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	122.2	122.4	123.0	122.6
Army	89.5	89.5	89.6	89.6
Connecticut	87.2	87.1	87.5	87.2
Massachusetts	76.1	76.5	75.7	76.1
Independents	93.7	93.9	94.0	93.9
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Ohio)	95.2	96.9	97.2	96.4
Ohio	93.9	95.1	94.7	94.6
Bowling Green	87.4	88.2	87.9	87.9
Buffalo	86.7	87.9	87.2	87.3
Akron	76.6	78.0	76.7	77.1
Kent St.	77.1	77.8	75.4	76.7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Toledo	98.4	99.5	100.3	99.4
N. Illinois	89.5	91.0	91.5	90.7
Western Mich.	88.1	90.2	89.3	89.2
Central Mich.	84.7	86.1	85.2	85.3
Eastern Mich.	81.2	82.9	82.3	82.1
Ball St.	80.9	82.1	81.7	81.6
MAC	86.6	88.0	87.5	87.4
Mountain West Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Fresno St.	102.0	102.1	102.3	102.1
Air Force	100.6	102.1	102.7	101.8
Boise St.	99.5	99.8	100.4	99.9
San Jose St.	94.9	96.5	96.1	95.9
U N L V	95.1	96.1	95.9	95.7
Wyoming	95.6	95.5	95.9	95.6
Utah St.	87.6	89.5	87.8	88.3
Colorado St.	87.2	88.4	87.8	87.8
San Diego St.	85.5	86.5	85.5	85.8
Nevada	77.8	79.5	77.3	78.2
Hawaii	77.7	79.2	76.8	77.9
New Mexico	77.0	77.2	75.5	76.6
MWC	90.0	91.0	90.3	90.5
Pac-12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oregon	130.3	128.6	130.5	129.8
Washington	122.2	121.4	123.3	122.3
Utah	120.6	118.6	121.3	120.1
Oregon St.	114.7	114.7	115.4	114.9
U S C	115.8	114.2	114.4	114.8
U C L A	112.4	111.9	112.4	112.2
Arizona	111.8	111.6	111.6	111.7
California	104.1	102.7	103.4	103.4
Washington St.	103.5	102.8	103.3	103.2
Colorado	100.0	99.4	98.0	99.1
Arizona St.	97.4	96.5	97.3	97.1
Stanford	95.7	95.0	94.0	94.9
Pac-12	110.7	109.8	110.4	110.3
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	129.8	128.3	129.8	129.3
Tennessee	120.8	120.7	120.4	120.6
Missouri	113.4	112.1	113.3	112.9
Kentucky	111.3	110.6	111.0	111.0
Florida	110.0	108.2	109.3	109.2
South Carolina	106.6	106.0	105.2	106.0
Vanderbilt	95.6	93.6	93.9	94.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	125.2	125.0	126.2	125.5
L S U	125.3	123.8	125.5	124.9
Ole Miss	120.9	119.0	120.8	120.2
Texas A&M	116.6	117.3	117.8	117.2
Auburn	113.5	112.3	113.5	113.1
Arkansas	111.2	110.6	111.4	111.1
Mississippi St.	106.6	105.7	105.2	105.9
SEC	114.8	113.8	114.5	114.4
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
James Madison	101.2	102.2	102.0	101.8
Coastal Carolina	94.1	94.2	93.5	93.9
Appalachian St.	93.3	93.6	92.5	93.1
Georgia St.	90.7	91.4	91.4	91.2
Ga. Southern	90.2	91.0	89.5	90.2
Marshall	88.4	88.2	87.6	88.1
Old Dominion	86.7	88.2	87.1	87.3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Troy	105.7	105.1	106.1	105.6
South Alabama	100.7	99.7	100.9	100.4
Louisiana	92.2	92.9	92.4	92.5
Texas St.	88.0	89.4	87.2	88.2
Arkansas St.	84.8	84.8	83.7	84.4
Southern Miss.	82.3	81.8	81.5	81.8
UL-Monroe	78.4	78.4	77.2	78.0
Sun Belt	91.2	91.5	90.9	91.2

Ratings of Conferences

#	Conference	Rating
1	SEC	114.4
2	P12	110.3
3	BTN	109.1
4	B12	108.6
5	ACC	107.2
6	IND	93.9
7	SUN	91.2
8	AAC	91.0
9	MWC	90.5
10	MAC	87.4
11	CUS	85.3

Playoff & Bowl Projections

From the ridiculous not to the sublime but to the utterly ridiculous. After this past weekends games saw more than a dozen probable bowl eligible teams lose, our internal ratings now show that there will need to be seven 5-7 teams to fill slots in the bowls. The record for 5-7 teams in bowls is three. Our calculations show that just 75 teams will be bowl eligible, and this includes the second year transitioning teams, James Madison and Jacksonville State. We count 22 teams that we believe are headed to 5-7 seasons. The seven 5-7 teams that will receive these bowl bids will be determined based on their most recent Academic Progress Rates. Here are the seven teams from among the 22 predicted to have 5-7 records with the highest APR scores (in order).

1. Northwestern
2. Wake Forest
3. Iowa St.
4. Rice
5. Mississippi St.
6. Central Florida
7. Army

Bowls

Bowl	Team	Team
Bahamas	Western Kentucky	Northern Illinois
New Orleans	Jacksonville St.	Louisiana
Cure	Rice (5-win)	Arkansas St.
New Mexico	New Mexico St.	Wyoming
Los Angeles	Utah	Air Force
Independence	Iowa St. (5-win)	Arizona
Myrtle Beach	Georgia St.	Boise St.
Frisco	Army (5-win)	Texas St.
Boca Raton	Coastal Carolina	Colorado St.
Gasparilla	Syracuse	Appalachian St.
Camellia	Toledo	Troy
Birmingham	Wake Forest (5-win)	South Alabama
Idaho Potato	Bowling Green	Utah St.
Armed Forces	UTSA	Liberty
68 Ventures (Mobile)	Ohio	Georgia Southern
Las Vegas	Minnesota	UCLA
Hawaii	Fresno St.	James Madison
Quick Lane	Northwestern (5-win)	Buffalo
First Responder	Georgia Tech	Central Florida (5-win)
Guaranteed Rate	BYU	Illinois
Military	Boston College	Memphis
Duke’s Mayo	Clemson	LSU
Holiday	North Carolina St.	Washington
Texas	Oklahoma	Texas A&M
Fenway	Notre Dame	SMU
Pinstripe	Duke	Rutgers
Pop-Tarts	North Carolina	Kansas St.
Alamo	Oklahoma St.	Oregon St.
Gator	Miami (Fla.)	Auburn
Tony the Tiger (Sun)	Virginia Tech	USC
Cotton	Texas	Oregon
Liberty	West Virginia	Kentucky
Peach	Ole Miss	Penn St.
Music City	Nebraska	Mississippi St. (5-win)
Arizona	Miami (O)	UNLV
Orange	Louisville	Alabama
Reliaquest	Iowa	Tennessee
Fiesta	Kansas	Tulane
Citrus	Wisconsin	Missouri
Rose	Michigan	Florida St.
Sugar	Georgia	Ohio St.
National Championship	Florida St.	Georgia

PiRate Ratings College Football–Playoffs & Bowls

Post-Season Games

Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Miami (O)	UAB	-8.6	-6.7	-8.2
UTSA	Troy	3.8	2.5	2.6
Cincinnati	Louisville	-4.8	-5.5	-4.7
SMU	BYU	-2.5	-2.0	-2.3
Washington St.	Fresno St.	1.6	1.9	1.6
Rice	Southern Miss.	-9.3	-10.1	-10.9
Florida	Oregon St.	-6.3	-5.0	-6.9
North Texas	Boise St.	-10.3	-10.2	-9.6
Marshall	Connecticut	10.6	10.4	13.0
Eastern Michigan	San Jose St.	-4.4	-3.6	-3.9
Liberty	Toledo	1.1	1.0	0.8
Western Kentucky	South Alabama	3.6	2.8	2.9
Baylor	Air Force	12.8	11.7	11.4
Louisiana	Houston	-8.0	-6.7	-6.1
Wake Forest	Missouri	3.7	3.2	3.6
Middle Tennessee	San Diego St.	-9.1	-8.1	-9.3
Bowling Green	New Mexico St.	5.3	3.4	5.7
Georgia Southern	Buffalo	1.7	0.4	1.8
Memphis	Utah St.	9.6	9.7	9.0
East Carolina	Coastal Carolina	9.1	7.9	8.5
Wisconsin	Oklahoma St.	2.6	3.6	2.3
Central Florida	Duke	-0.1	-1.5	0.5
Kansas	Arkansas	-8.7	-8.9	-10.6
Oregon	North Carolina	9.8	9.7	11.2
Ole Miss	Texas Tech	3.4	2.9	1.9
Minnesota	Syracuse	10.4	10.6	11.3
Florida St.	Oklahoma	10.9	11.6	11.2
Texas	Washington	6.8	5.6	4.7
Maryland	North Carolina St.	-1.6	-2.1	-1.7
Pittsburgh	UCLA	-2.3	-3.0	-5.1
Ohio	Wyoming	6.0	6.7	6.8
Tennessee	Clemson	0.7	1.1	1.5
Iowa	Kentucky	4.3	3.1	2.0
Alabama	Kansas St.	6.5	6.6	7.3
Notre Dame	South Carolina	3.8	2.9	3.7
Georgia	Ohio St.	3.9	4.3	4.9
Michigan	TCU	7.6	8.3	8.0
Mississippi St.	Illinois	0.4	-1.4	0.0
LSU	Purdue	3.4	3.8	5.2
USC	Tulane	4.2	4.4	4.4
Utah	Penn St.	-3.6	-4.0	-2.3

Bowl Schedule

Day	Date	Bowl	Time ET	Network	Team	Team
Fri	D 16	Bahamas	11:30 AM	ESPN	Miami (O)	UAB
		Cure	3:00 PM	ESPN	UTSA	Troy
Sat	D 17	Fenway	11:00 AM	ESPN	Cincinnati	Louisville
		New Mexico	2:15 PM	ESPN	SMU	BYU
		L.A.	3:30 PM	ABC	Washington St.	Fresno St.
		Lending Tree	5:45 PM	ESPN	Rice	Southern Miss.
		Las Vegas	7:30 PM	ABC	Florida	Oregon St.
		Frisco	9:15 PM	ESPN	North Texas	Boise St.
Mon	D 19	Myrtle Beach	2:30 PM	ESPN	Marshall	Connecticut
Tue	D 20	Famous Idaho Potato	3:30 PM	ESPN	Eastern Michigan	San Jose St.
		Boca Raton	7:30 PM	ESPN	Liberty	Toledo
Wed	D 21	New Orleans	9:00 PM	ESPN	Western Kentucky	South Alabama
Thu	D 22	Armed Forces	7:30 PM	ESPN	Baylor	Air Force
Fri	D 23	Independence	3:00 PM	ESPN	Louisiana	Houston
		Gasparilla	6:30 PM	ESPN	Wake Forest	Missouri
Sat	D 24	Hawaii	8:00 PM	ESPN	Middle Tennessee	San Diego St.
Mon	D 26	Quick Lane	2:30 PM	ESPN	Bowling Green	New Mexico St.
Tue	D 27	Camellia	12:00 PM	ESPN	Georgia Southern	Buffalo
		First Responder	3:15 PM	ESPN	Memphis	Utah St.
		Birmingham	6:45 PM	ESPN	East Carolina	Coastal Carolina
		Guaranteed Rate	10:15 PM	ESPN	Wisconsin	Oklahoma St.
Wed	D 28	Military	2:00 PM	ESPN	Central Florida	Duke
		Liberty	5:30 PM	ESPN	Kansas	Arkansas
		Holiday	8:00 PM	Fox	Oregon	North Carolina
		Texas	9:00 PM	ESPN	Ole Miss	Texas Tech
Thu	D 29	Pinstripe	2:00 PM	ESPN	Minnesota	Syracuse
		Cheez-It	5:30 PM	ESPN	Florida St.	Oklahoma
		Alamo	9:00 PM	ESPN	Texas	Washington
Fri	D 30	Duke’s Mayo	12:00 PM	ESPN	Maryland	North Carolina St.
		Tony the Tiger	2:00 PM	CBS	Pittsburgh	UCLA
		Arizona	4:30 PM	Barstool	Ohio	Wyoming
		Orange	8:00 PM	ESPN	Tennessee	Clemson
Sat	D 31	Music City	12:00 PM	ABC	Iowa	Kentucky
		Sugar	12:00 PM	ESPN	Alabama	Kansas St.
		TaxSlayer	3:30 PM	ESPN	Notre Dame	South Carolina
		Fiesta	4:00 PM	ESPN	Michigan	TCU
		Peach	8:00 PM	ESPN	Georgia	Ohio St.
Mon	J 2	Reliaquest	12:00 PM	ESPN2	Mississippi St.	Illinois
		Citrus	1:00 PM	ABC	LSU	Purdue
		Cotton	1:00 PM	ESPN	USC	Tulane
		Rose	5:00 PM	ESPN	Utah	Penn St.

PiRate Ratings College Football–December 4, 2022

This Week’s Game

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Army	Navy	0.3	1.1	1.1

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#	Team	Rating
1	Georgia	132.4
2	Michigan	130.2
3	Ohio St.	129.5
4	Alabama	128.6
5	Penn St.	124.1
6	Tennessee	123.1
7	T C U	121.7
8	Utah	120.8
9	Kansas St.	119.8
10	Clemson	119.5
11	Texas	119.3
12	Florida St.	119.0
13	L S U	116.1
14	Oregon	115.8
15	Minnesota	115.5
16	Notre Dame	115.0
17	Illinois	114.5
18	Mississippi St.	114.1
19	Oregon St.	113.7
20	Washington	113.6
21	Baylor	113.4
22	Iowa	113.0
23	U S C	112.7
24	Arkansas	112.7
25	Wisconsin	112.5
26	Ole Miss	112.4
27	Oklahoma	112.2
28	Louisville	112.1
29	Purdue	111.9
30	Maryland	111.2
31	Pittsburgh	111.0
32	U C L A	111.0
33	Florida	110.1
34	Kentucky	109.9
35	Texas Tech	109.6
36	South Carolina	109.1
37	NC State	108.9
38	Texas A&M	108.8
39	Tulane	108.4
40	Michigan St.	108.4
41	Wake Forest	107.7
42	Cincinnati	107.3
43	Oklahoma St.	107.2
44	Auburn	106.9
45	Washington St.	106.0
46	North Carolina	105.5
47	Iowa St.	104.6
48	West Virginia	104.4
49	Fresno St.	104.3
50	Missouri	104.3
51	UCF	103.9
52	Syracuse	103.8
53	Boise St.	103.7
54	Nebraska	103.6
55	BYU	103.5
56	Air Force	102.4
57	Houston	102.0
58	James Madison	101.8
59	Duke	101.8
60	Kansas	101.8
61	U T S A	101.7
62	SMU	101.2
63	Arizona St.	99.8
64	Memphis	99.6
65	East Carolina	99.2
66	W. Kentucky	98.7
67	Troy	98.7
68	Arizona	98.5
69	Miami (Fla.)	98.4
70	Indiana	98.4
71	Appalachian St.	97.9
72	California	97.8
73	U A B	97.5
74	Army	96.9
75	Marshall	96.7
76	Stanford	96.7
77	Liberty	96.3
78	Georgia St.	96.1
79	Navy	96.1
80	South Alabama	95.6
81	Louisiana	95.6
82	Toledo	95.3
83	Georgia Tech	95.3
84	Virginia	95.2
85	San Diego St.	94.8
86	Ohio	94.7
87	Virginia Tech	94.7
88	Northwestern	94.5
89	Tulsa	94.5
90	Rutgers	93.8
91	Vanderbilt	93.4
92	San Jose St.	93.1
93	Boston College	92.8
94	North Texas	92.1
95	Ga. Southern	90.8
96	Coastal Carolina	90.7
97	Utah St.	90.2
98	Kent St.	90.1
99	Miami (Ohio)	89.7
100	Buffalo	89.5
101	Florida Atlantic	89.3
102	Eastern Mich.	89.1
103	Western Mich.	88.9
104	Southern Miss.	88.9
105	Central Mich.	88.8
106	Wyoming	88.3
107	USF	88.0
108	U T E P	87.3
109	Old Dominion	87.1
110	Ball St.	86.5
111	N. Illinois	86.2
112	Middle Tennessee	85.9
113	U N L V	85.8
114	Connecticut	85.4
115	Bowling Green	84.5
116	Colorado St.	83.1
117	UL-Monroe	82.8
118	Temple	82.7
119	Colorado	81.6
120	Texas St.	81.3
121	Akron	80.7
122	Nevada	79.7
123	New Mexico St.	79.7
124	Arkansas St.	79.7
125	Louisiana Tech	79.0
126	Rice	78.8
127	Hawaii	76.3
128	Charlotte	75.7
129	New Mexico	75.5
130	Massachusetts	71.1
131	Florida Int’l.	65.1

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Tulane	108.2	108.1	108.9	108.4
Cincinnati	107.6	106.7	107.5	107.3
UCF	103.8	104.2	103.8	103.9
Houston	102.4	101.6	102.0	102.0
SMU	101.4	100.7	101.4	101.2
Memphis	99.6	99.8	99.4	99.6
East Carolina	99.1	98.8	99.6	99.2
Navy	96.2	96.0	96.1	96.1
Tulsa	94.9	94.2	94.3	94.5
USF	88.6	87.7	87.7	88.0
Temple	82.4	83.6	82.0	82.7
AAC	98.6	98.3	98.4	98.4
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	119.5	119.3	119.7	119.5
Florida St.	119.0	118.8	119.1	119.0
Louisville	112.3	112.0	112.0	112.1
NC State	109.4	108.8	108.4	108.9
Wake Forest	108.0	107.7	107.5	107.7
Syracuse	104.6	103.6	103.1	103.8
Boston College	93.2	93.4	91.8	92.8
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Pittsburgh	111.8	111.0	110.3	111.0
North Carolina	106.1	105.7	104.8	105.5
Duke	101.4	103.1	100.8	101.8
Miami (Fla.)	99.2	98.3	97.7	98.4
Georgia Tech	95.8	95.6	94.5	95.3
Virginia	95.8	95.9	94.0	95.2
Virginia Tech	95.1	95.3	93.7	94.7
ACC	105.1	104.9	104.1	104.7
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
T C U	122.3	121.1	121.8	121.7
Kansas St.	120.2	119.2	119.9	119.8
Texas	119.9	119.1	118.8	119.3
Baylor	114.1	112.8	113.2	113.4
Oklahoma	112.6	111.7	112.4	112.2
Texas Tech	109.8	108.9	110.2	109.6
Oklahoma St.	108.0	106.5	107.0	107.2
Iowa St.	105.1	104.4	104.4	104.6
West Virginia	104.8	104.2	104.2	104.4
Kansas	102.9	101.5	101.0	101.8
Big 12	112.0	110.9	111.3	111.4
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Michigan	130.4	129.9	130.3	130.2
Ohio St.	130.1	128.9	129.6	129.5
Penn St.	124.2	124.1	124.1	124.1
Maryland	111.6	111.3	110.7	111.2
Michigan St.	109.5	108.2	107.4	108.4
Indiana	99.3	98.5	97.4	98.4
Rutgers	95.0	93.9	92.4	93.8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Minnesota	115.9	115.2	115.4	115.5
Illinois	114.6	115.0	113.9	114.5
Iowa	113.8	112.9	112.3	113.0
Wisconsin	113.1	112.6	111.8	112.5
Purdue	112.9	112.0	110.9	111.9
Nebraska	104.1	103.9	103.0	103.6
Northwestern	94.8	95.2	93.5	94.5
Big Ten	112.1	111.5	110.9	111.5
Conference USA
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U T S A	101.5	101.2	102.2	101.7
W. Kentucky	98.4	98.3	99.4	98.7
U A B	97.4	97.2	97.9	97.5
North Texas	91.8	91.6	93.0	92.1
Florida Atlantic	89.1	90.0	88.9	89.3
U T E P	87.2	87.3	87.2	87.3
Middle Tennessee	85.7	86.3	85.7	85.9
Louisiana Tech	78.9	79.7	78.4	79.0
Rice	79.0	78.9	78.5	78.8
Charlotte	75.4	76.2	75.5	75.7
Florida Int’l.	64.9	66.5	64.0	65.1
CUSA	86.3	86.7	86.4	86.5
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	115.4	114.3	115.4	115.0
BYU	103.9	102.7	103.8	103.5
Army	96.5	97.1	97.2	96.9
Liberty	95.9	96.7	96.2	96.3
Connecticut	85.3	86.5	84.4	85.4
New Mexico St.	79.1	81.0	79.0	79.7
Massachusetts	71.2	72.1	69.9	71.1
Independents	92.5	92.9	92.3	92.5
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio	93.5	95.5	95.2	94.7
Buffalo	88.6	90.3	89.7	89.5
Kent St.	89.5	91.1	89.8	90.1
Miami (Ohio)	88.8	90.5	89.8	89.7
Bowling Green	84.4	84.5	84.7	84.5
Akron	80.4	81.4	80.4	80.7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Toledo	94.8	95.6	95.4	95.3
Eastern Mich.	88.5	89.5	89.2	89.1
Western Mich.	88.2	89.3	89.2	88.9
Central Mich.	87.8	89.2	89.4	88.8
Ball St.	85.8	87.2	86.7	86.5
N. Illinois	86.0	86.5	86.1	86.2
MAC	88.0	89.2	88.8	88.7
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	103.7	103.3	104.1	103.7
Air Force	102.2	102.2	102.9	102.4
Utah St.	90.0	90.1	90.4	90.2
Wyoming	87.4	88.9	88.5	88.3
Colorado St.	82.6	83.5	83.3	83.1
New Mexico	76.1	75.8	74.6	75.5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Fresno St.	104.0	104.0	105.0	104.3
San Diego St.	94.8	94.4	95.0	94.8
San Jose St.	92.9	93.1	93.2	93.1
U N L V	86.1	85.0	86.1	85.8
Nevada	79.5	80.5	79.2	79.7
Hawaii	75.5	76.6	76.8	76.3
MWC	89.6	89.8	89.9	89.8
Pac-12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Utah	120.6	120.1	121.8	120.8
Oregon	115.9	115.4	116.0	115.8
Oregon St.	113.4	113.1	114.5	113.7
Washington	113.1	113.4	114.2	113.6
U S C	112.4	112.5	113.3	112.7
U C L A	110.6	110.5	111.8	111.0
Washington St.	105.6	105.9	106.5	106.0
Arizona St.	100.0	99.4	100.1	99.8
Arizona	98.3	98.4	98.9	98.5
California	97.5	97.5	98.3	97.8
Stanford	97.8	95.9	96.4	96.7
Colorado	82.4	81.0	81.5	81.6
Pac-12	105.6	105.3	106.1	105.7
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	132.5	131.7	133.0	132.4
Tennessee	122.7	122.9	123.7	123.1
Florida	109.6	110.7	110.1	110.1
Kentucky	109.5	109.8	110.3	109.9
South Carolina	109.1	108.9	109.2	109.1
Missouri	104.3	104.5	103.9	104.3
Vanderbilt	93.3	94.0	92.7	93.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	128.7	127.8	129.2	128.6
L S U	116.3	115.8	116.1	116.1
Mississippi St.	115.0	113.6	113.9	114.1
Arkansas	113.1	111.9	113.1	112.7
Ole Miss	113.2	111.8	112.1	112.4
Texas A&M	108.7	108.9	108.9	108.8
Auburn	107.5	106.3	106.8	106.9
SEC	113.1	112.8	113.1	113.0
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
James Madison	100.2	101.6	103.7	101.8
Appalachian St.	97.1	98.0	98.5	97.9
Marshall	95.9	96.9	97.3	96.7
Georgia St.	95.6	95.7	97.1	96.1
Ga. Southern	90.4	90.6	91.5	90.8
Coastal Carolina	90.1	90.9	91.1	90.7
Old Dominion	86.9	87.0	87.3	87.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Troy	97.7	98.7	99.7	98.7
South Alabama	94.8	95.5	96.5	95.6
Louisiana	94.9	95.4	96.4	95.6
Southern Miss.	88.3	88.9	89.4	88.9
UL-Monroe	82.6	82.9	82.8	82.8
Texas St.	80.7	81.7	81.6	81.3
Arkansas St.	79.2	80.2	79.6	79.7
Sun Belt	91.0	91.7	92.3	91.7

Conference Ratings

#	Conference	Rating
1	Southeastern	113.0
2	Big Ten	111.5
3	Big 12	111.4
4	Pac-12	105.7
5	Atlantic Coast	104.7
6	American Athletic	98.4
7	Independents	92.5
8	Sun Belt	91.7
9	Mountain West	89.8
10	Mid-American	88.7
11	Conference USA	86.5

Playoff & Bowl Projections

Bowl	Team	Team
Bahamas	Miami (O)	UAB
Cure	Marshall	Central Florida
Fenway	Cincinnati	Louisville
New Mexico	Rice	Utah St.
L.A.	Washington St.	Fresno St.
Lending Tree	Buffalo	Southern Miss.
Las Vegas	UCLA	Mississippi St.
Frisco	Louisiana	Air Force
Myrtle Beach	Georgia Southern	Connecticut
Famous Idaho Potato	Ohio	Boise St.
Boca Raton	Coastal Carolina	BYU
New Orleans	Western Kentucky	South Alabama
Armed Forces	SMU	UTSA
Independence	Houston	New Mexico St.
Gasparilla	Missouri	Syracuse
Hawaii	San Diego St.	Middle Tennessee
Quick Lane	Eastern Michigan	Liberty
Camellia	Toledo	Troy
First Responder	San Jose St.	North Texas
Birmingham	Memphis	Kansas
Guaranteed Rate	Baylor	Wisconsin
Military	Wake Forest	East Carolina
Liberty	Arkansas	Oklahoma
Holiday	Florida St.	Oregon
Texas	Oklahoma St.	Florida
Pinstripe	Iowa	Pittsburgh
Cheez-It	North Carolina	Texas Tech
Alamo	Washington	Texas
Duke’s Mayo	Maryland	North Carolina St.
Tony the Tiger Sun	Oregon St.	Duke
Arizona	Wyoming	Bowling Green
Orange	Clemson	Tennessee
Music City	Kentucky	Minnesota
Sugar	Alabama	Kansas St.
TaxSlayer	Notre Dame	South Carolina
Peach	Georgia	Ohio St.
Fiesta	Michigan	TCU
Reliaquest (Outback)	Ole Miss	Illinois
Citrus	LSU	Purdue
Cotton	Tulane	USC
Rose	Utah	Penn St.
National Championship	Georgia	Michigan

PiRate Ratings College Football–Championship Week

This Week’s Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Buffalo	Akron	12.3	13.4	13.9
UTSA	North Texas	11.5	11.2	10.4
Utah	USC	4.1	3.1	4.0
TCU	Kansas St.	4.2	4.2	4.4
Ohio	Toledo	0.7	2.3	2.4
Troy	Coastal Carolina	8.7	8.8	9.4
Georgia	LSU	17.5	17.0	18.0
Tulane	Central Florida	4.7	4.0	5.0
Boise St.	Fresno St.	5.9	5.7	5.8
Michigan	Purdue	15.6	15.8	17.3
Clemson	North Carolina	10.2	10.2	11.5

Conference Championship Schedule

Day	Date	Location	Conference	Team 1	Team 2	Network	Time (EST)
FRI	12/2	San Antonio	C-USA	UTSA	North Texas	CBSSN	7:30 PM
FRI	12/2	Las Vegas	Pac-12	USC	Utah	Fox	8:00 PM
SAT	12/3	Arlington, TX	Big 12	TCU	Kansas St.	ABC	12:00 PM
SAT	12/3	Detroit	Mid-American	Ohio	Toledo	ESPN	12:00 PM
SAT	12/3	Troy, AL	Sun Belt	Troy	Coastal Carolina	ESPN	3:30 PM
SAT	12/3	Atlanta	SEC	Georgia	LSU	CBS	4:00 PM
SAT	12/3	New Orleans	American	Tulane	Central Florida	ABC	4:00 PM
SAT	12/3	Boise, ID	Mountain West	Boise St.	Fresno St.	Fox	4:00 PM
SAT	12/3	Indianapolis	Big Ten	Michigan	Purdue	Fox	8:00 PM
SAT	12/3	Charlotte	ACC	Clemson	North Carolina	ABC	8:00 PM

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#	Team	Rating
1	Georgia	132.2
2	Michigan	129.9
3	Ohio St.	129.5
4	Alabama	128.6
5	Penn St.	124.1
6	Tennessee	123.1
7	T C U	122.1
8	Kansas St.	119.4
9	Texas	119.3
10	Florida St.	119.0
11	Utah	118.9
12	Clemson	117.8
13	L S U	116.2
14	Oregon	115.8
15	Minnesota	115.5
16	U S C	115.2
17	Notre Dame	115.0
18	Illinois	114.5
19	Mississippi St.	114.1
20	Oregon St.	113.7
21	Washington	113.6
22	Baylor	113.4
23	Iowa	113.0
24	Arkansas	112.7
25	Wisconsin	112.5
26	Ole Miss	112.4
27	Oklahoma	112.2
28	Purdue	112.2
29	Louisville	112.1
30	Maryland	111.2
31	Pittsburgh	111.0
32	U C L A	111.0
33	Florida	110.1
34	Kentucky	109.9
35	Texas Tech	109.6
36	South Carolina	109.1
37	NC State	108.9
38	Texas A&M	108.8
39	Michigan St.	108.4
40	Wake Forest	107.7
41	Cincinnati	107.3
42	Tulane	107.2
43	Oklahoma St.	107.2
44	North Carolina	107.2
45	Auburn	106.9
46	Washington St.	106.0
47	Boise St.	105.4
48	UCF	105.1
49	Iowa St.	104.6
50	West Virginia	104.4
51	Missouri	104.3
52	Syracuse	103.8
53	Nebraska	103.6
54	BYU	103.5
55	Fresno St.	102.6
56	Air Force	102.4
57	Houston	102.0
58	James Madison	101.8
59	Duke	101.8
60	Kansas	101.8
61	SMU	101.2
62	U T S A	100.9
63	Arizona St.	99.8
64	Memphis	99.6
65	East Carolina	99.2
66	W. Kentucky	98.7
67	Arizona	98.5
68	Miami (Fla.)	98.4
69	Indiana	98.4
70	Troy	97.9
71	Appalachian St.	97.9
72	California	97.8
73	U A B	97.5
74	Army	96.9
75	Marshall	96.7
76	Stanford	96.7
77	Liberty	96.3
78	Georgia St.	96.1
79	Navy	96.1
80	Ohio	95.9
81	South Alabama	95.6
82	Louisiana	95.6
83	Georgia Tech	95.3
84	Virginia	95.2
85	San Diego St.	94.8
86	Virginia Tech	94.7
87	Northwestern	94.5
88	Tulsa	94.5
89	Toledo	94.1
90	Rutgers	93.8
91	Vanderbilt	93.4
92	San Jose St.	93.1
93	North Texas	92.9
94	Boston College	92.8
95	Coastal Carolina	91.5
96	Ga. Southern	90.8
97	Buffalo	90.5
98	Utah St.	90.2
99	Kent St.	90.1
100	Miami (Ohio)	89.7
101	Florida Atlantic	89.3
102	Eastern Mich.	89.1
103	Western Mich.	88.9
104	Southern Miss.	88.9
105	Central Mich.	88.8
106	Wyoming	88.3
107	USF	88.0
108	U T E P	87.3
109	Old Dominion	87.1
110	Ball St.	86.5
111	N. Illinois	86.2
112	Middle Tennessee	85.9
113	U N L V	85.8
114	Connecticut	85.4
115	Bowling Green	84.5
116	Colorado St.	83.1
117	UL-Monroe	82.8
118	Temple	82.7
119	Colorado	81.6
120	Texas St.	81.3
121	Akron	79.8
122	Nevada	79.7
123	Arkansas St.	79.7
124	New Mexico St.	79.2
125	Louisiana Tech	79.0
126	Rice	78.8
127	Hawaii	76.3
128	Charlotte	75.7
129	New Mexico	75.5
130	Massachusetts	71.1
131	Florida Int’l.	65.1

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	107.6	106.7	107.5	107.3
Tulane	107.1	106.9	107.6	107.2
UCF	104.9	105.4	105.1	105.1
Houston	102.4	101.6	102.0	102.0
SMU	101.4	100.7	101.4	101.2
Memphis	99.6	99.8	99.4	99.6
East Carolina	99.1	98.8	99.6	99.2
Navy	96.2	96.0	96.1	96.1
Tulsa	94.9	94.2	94.3	94.5
USF	88.6	87.7	87.7	88.0
Temple	82.4	83.6	82.0	82.7
AAC	98.6	98.3	98.4	98.4
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Florida St.	119.0	118.8	119.1	119.0
Clemson	117.9	117.6	118.0	117.8
Louisville	112.3	112.0	112.0	112.1
NC State	109.4	108.8	108.4	108.9
Wake Forest	108.0	107.7	107.5	107.7
Syracuse	104.6	103.6	103.1	103.8
Boston College	93.2	93.4	91.8	92.8
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Pittsburgh	111.8	111.0	110.3	111.0
North Carolina	107.7	107.4	106.5	107.2
Duke	101.4	103.1	100.8	101.8
Miami (Fla.)	99.2	98.3	97.7	98.4
Georgia Tech	95.8	95.6	94.5	95.3
Virginia	95.8	95.9	94.0	95.2
Virginia Tech	95.1	95.3	93.7	94.7
ACC	105.1	104.9	104.1	104.7
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
T C U	122.6	121.5	122.3	122.1
Kansas St.	119.9	118.8	119.4	119.4
Texas	119.9	119.1	118.8	119.3
Baylor	114.1	112.8	113.2	113.4
Oklahoma	112.6	111.7	112.4	112.2
Texas Tech	109.8	108.9	110.2	109.6
Oklahoma St.	108.0	106.5	107.0	107.2
Iowa St.	105.1	104.4	104.4	104.6
West Virginia	104.8	104.2	104.2	104.4
Kansas	102.9	101.5	101.0	101.8
Big 12	112.0	110.9	111.3	111.4
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Michigan	130.2	129.6	130.0	129.9
Ohio St.	130.1	128.9	129.6	129.5
Penn St.	124.2	124.1	124.1	124.1
Maryland	111.6	111.3	110.7	111.2
Michigan St.	109.5	108.2	107.4	108.4
Indiana	99.3	98.5	97.4	98.4
Rutgers	95.0	93.9	92.4	93.8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Minnesota	115.9	115.2	115.4	115.5
Illinois	114.6	115.0	113.9	114.5
Iowa	113.8	112.9	112.3	113.0
Wisconsin	113.1	112.6	111.8	112.5
Purdue	113.1	112.3	111.2	112.2
Nebraska	104.1	103.9	103.0	103.6
Northwestern	94.8	95.2	93.5	94.5
Big Ten	112.1	111.5	110.9	111.5
Conference USA
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U T S A	100.9	100.5	101.3	100.9
W. Kentucky	98.4	98.3	99.4	98.7
U A B	97.4	97.2	97.9	97.5
North Texas	92.4	92.3	93.9	92.9
Florida Atlantic	89.1	90.0	88.9	89.3
U T E P	87.2	87.3	87.2	87.3
Middle Tennessee	85.7	86.3	85.7	85.9
Louisiana Tech	78.9	79.7	78.4	79.0
Rice	79.0	78.9	78.5	78.8
Charlotte	75.4	76.2	75.5	75.7
Florida Int’l.	64.9	66.5	64.0	65.1
CUSA	86.3	86.7	86.4	86.5
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	115.4	114.3	115.4	115.0
BYU	103.9	102.7	103.8	103.5
Army	96.5	97.1	97.2	96.9
Liberty	95.9	96.7	96.2	96.3
Connecticut	85.3	86.5	84.4	85.4
New Mexico St.	78.6	80.5	78.5	79.2
Massachusetts	71.2	72.1	69.9	71.1
Independents	92.4	92.8	92.2	92.5
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio	94.5	96.7	96.5	95.9
Buffalo	89.4	91.3	90.8	90.5
Kent St.	89.5	91.1	89.8	90.1
Miami (Ohio)	88.8	90.5	89.8	89.7
Bowling Green	84.4	84.5	84.7	84.5
Akron	79.6	80.4	79.3	79.8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Toledo	93.8	94.4	94.1	94.1
Eastern Mich.	88.5	89.5	89.2	89.1
Western Mich.	88.2	89.3	89.2	88.9
Central Mich.	87.8	89.2	89.4	88.8
Ball St.	85.8	87.2	86.7	86.5
N. Illinois	86.0	86.5	86.1	86.2
MAC	88.0	89.2	88.8	88.7
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	105.3	105.0	105.9	105.4
Air Force	102.2	102.2	102.9	102.4
Utah St.	90.0	90.1	90.4	90.2
Wyoming	87.4	88.9	88.5	88.3
Colorado St.	82.6	83.5	83.3	83.1
New Mexico	76.1	75.8	74.6	75.5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Fresno St.	102.4	102.3	103.2	102.6
San Diego St.	94.8	94.4	95.0	94.8
San Jose St.	92.9	93.1	93.2	93.1
U N L V	86.1	85.0	86.1	85.8
Nevada	79.5	80.5	79.2	79.7
Hawaii	75.5	76.6	76.8	76.3
MWC	89.6	89.8	89.9	89.8
Pac-12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Utah	118.8	118.1	119.8	118.9
Oregon	115.9	115.4	116.0	115.8
U S C	114.7	115.0	115.8	115.2
Oregon St.	113.4	113.1	114.5	113.7
Washington	113.1	113.4	114.2	113.6
U C L A	110.6	110.5	111.8	111.0
Washington St.	105.6	105.9	106.5	106.0
Arizona St.	100.0	99.4	100.1	99.8
Arizona	98.3	98.4	98.9	98.5
California	97.5	97.5	98.3	97.8
Stanford	97.8	95.9	96.4	96.7
Colorado	82.4	81.0	81.5	81.6
Pac-12	105.7	105.3	106.1	105.7
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	132.4	131.5	132.8	132.2
Tennessee	122.7	122.9	123.7	123.1
Florida	109.6	110.7	110.1	110.1
Kentucky	109.5	109.8	110.3	109.9
South Carolina	109.1	108.9	109.2	109.1
Missouri	104.3	104.5	103.9	104.3
Vanderbilt	93.3	94.0	92.7	93.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	128.7	127.8	129.2	128.6
L S U	116.4	116.0	116.3	116.2
Mississippi St.	115.0	113.6	113.9	114.1
Arkansas	113.1	111.9	113.1	112.7
Ole Miss	113.2	111.8	112.1	112.4
Texas A&M	108.7	108.9	108.9	108.8
Auburn	107.5	106.3	106.8	106.9
SEC	113.1	112.8	113.1	113.0
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
James Madison	100.2	101.6	103.7	101.8
Appalachian St.	97.1	98.0	98.5	97.9
Marshall	95.9	96.9	97.3	96.7
Georgia St.	95.6	95.7	97.1	96.1
Coastal Carolina	90.8	91.7	91.9	91.5
Ga. Southern	90.4	90.6	91.5	90.8
Old Dominion	86.9	87.0	87.3	87.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Troy	97.0	97.9	98.9	97.9
South Alabama	94.8	95.5	96.5	95.6
Louisiana	94.9	95.4	96.4	95.6
Southern Miss.	88.3	88.9	89.4	88.9
UL-Monroe	82.6	82.9	82.8	82.8
Texas St.	80.7	81.7	81.6	81.3
Arkansas St.	79.2	80.2	79.6	79.7
Sun Belt	91.0	91.7	92.3	91.7

Conference Ratings

#	Conference	Rating
1	Southeastern	113.0
2	Big Ten	111.5
3	Big 12	111.4
4	Pac-12	105.7
5	Atlantic Coast	104.7
6	American Athletic	98.4
7	Independents	92.5
8	Sun Belt	91.7
9	Mountain West	89.8
10	Mid-American	88.7
11	Conference USA	86.5

Bowl Projections

As of this morning, Sunday, November 27, 2022, there are 80 Bowl Eligible teams for 82 slots in bowls. There are three teams that can still become bowl eligible. Buffalo is 5-6. They host Akron in the makeup game that was postponed when Buffalo was blanketed with feet of snow. Army is 5-6, and a win over Navy would make the Black Knights bowl eligible. New Mexico State is 5-6, and it is not yet determined if the Aggies will get the opportunity to makeup their postponed game with San Jose State. In a wild and crazy world, NMSU has two other options that could work to supply them a replacement game. Virginia Tech had their game with Virginia cancelled and could get an extra game. Vanderbilt had the opportunity to play a 13th game having played in Hawaii, and the Commodores could get an extra game. It’s about 99% certain that neither team would play in Las Cruces on Saturday. Only San Jose State might still agree to playing the game.

Appalachian State has six wins, but two came against FCS teams. The rules state that only one FCS win can be counted toward bowl eligibility, but when there are not enough bowl eligible teams, a team may receive a waiver.

If one or two 5-7 teams need to be added to the bowl schedule, the Academic Progress Rate score determines which team(s) can go. This year, if one additional 5-win team is needed, it will be Rice. If a second 5-7 team is needed, it will be UNLV. For now, we will predict Army and Buffalo to get their sixth wins, and Appy State will get their waiver with two FCS wins.

Bowl	Team	Team
Bahamas	Miami (O)	UAB
Cure	Troy	Air Force
Fenway	Pittsburgh	Cincinnati
New Mexico	Wyoming	North Texas
L.A.	Oregon	Boise St.
Lending Tree	Toledo	Southern Miss.
Las Vegas	UCLA	South Carolina
Frisco	Fresno St.	Houston
Myrtle Beach	Marshall	Conecticut
Famous Idaho Potato	Utah St.	Bowling Green
Boca Raton	Coastal Carolina	Liberty
New Orleans	South Alabama	Western Kentucky
Armed Forces	Central Florida	UTSA
Independence	SMU	Army
Gasparilla	Wake Forest	Arkansas
Hawaii	San Diego St.	Middle Tennessee
Quick Lane	Buffalo	Louisiana
Camellia	Ohio	Georgia Southern
First Responder	BYU	Kansas
Birmingham	Memphis	Appalachian St.
Guaranteed Rate	Wisconsin	Baylor
Military	Syracsue	East Carolina
Liberty	Oklahoma	Missouri
Holiday	Utah	Notre Dame
Texas	Texas Tech	Ole Miss
Pinstripe	Iowa	North Carolina St.
Cheez-It	North Carolina	Oklahoma St.
Alamo	Texas	Oregon St.
Duke’s Mayo	Duke	Minnesota
Tony the Tiger Sun	Florida St.	Washington St.
Arizona	San Jose St.	Eastern Michigan
Orange	Clemson	Tennessee
Music City	Maryland	Kentucky
Sugar	Alabama	Kansas St.
TaxSlayer	Florida	Louisville
Peach	Georgia	USC
Fiesta	Michigan	TCU
Reliaquest (Outback)	Mississippi St.	Illinois
Citrus	LSU	Purdue
Cotton	Penn St.	Tulane
Rose	Ohio St.	Washington
National Championship	Georgia	Michigan

PiRate Ratings College Football — November 13, 2022

This Week’s Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Toledo	Bowling Green	15.7	16.8	16.6
Ball St.	Ohio	-3.7	-4.8	-5.2
Kent St.	Eastern Michigan	7.1	7.9	7.2
Central Michigan	Western Michigan	4.9	5.9	6.9
Northern Illinois	Miami (O)	6.3	4.8	5.4
Tulane	SMU	2.1	2.3	1.9
Tulsa	South Florida	7.6	7.9	8.0
New Mexico	San Diego St.	-12.4	-12.3	-14.1
Iowa St.	Texas Tech	2.1	2.6	1.4
West Virginia	Kansas St.	-12.6	-11.9	-12.6
Florida St.	Louisiana	28.8	28.0	27.0
Rutgers	Penn St.	-20.2	-21.1	-22.6
South Carolina	Tennessee	-18.5	-19.0	-19.6
Louisville	North Carolina St.	5.0	5.4	5.6
Wake Forest	Syracuse	7.0	7.8	7.8
Pittsburgh	Duke	13.7	10.9	13.2
Michigan St.	Indiana	15.8	15.5	16.2
Liberty	Virginia Tech	7.2	8.1	10.3
Clemson	Miami (Fla)	17.7	18.1	18.9
Maryland	Ohio St.	-20.8	-20.2	-22.3
Michigan	Illinois	19.8	18.7	20.9
Purdue	Northwestern	20.2	18.9	19.8
Virginia	Coastal Carolina	6.6	5.7	3.4
Kentucky	Georgia	-23.9	-22.8	-24.4
Army	Connecticut	11.9	11.0	13.4
East Carolina	Houston	5.8	6.1	6.8
Temple	Cincinnati	-24.1	-22.0	-25.4
Central Florida	Navy	16.8	18.0	18.0
Appalachian St.	Old Dominion	12.9	14.0	14.5
James Madison	Georgia St.	3.9	5.2	5.6
Kansas	Texas	-7.8	-8.1	-8.1
Auburn	Western Kentucky	9.7	8.2	6.9
Minnesota	Iowa	4.9	5.1	6.1
North Carolina	Georgia Tech	20.4	20.8	21.6
Texas A&M	Massachusetts	40.3	39.8	42.1
LSU	UAB	23.1	22.9	21.9
Rice	UTSA	-16.9	-16.4	-17.6
Arizona	Washington St.	-5.8	-6.2	-6.2
Air Force	Colorado St.	23.4	22.3	23.4
Arizona St.	Oregon St.	-6.0	-6.1	-6.4
Utah St.	San Jose St.	-0.7	-0.8	-1.0
Notre Dame	Boston College	21.4	19.7	22.8
California	Stanford	0.5	2.4	2.3
Washington	Colorado	26.3	28.0	28.0
UCLA	USC	-0.6	-0.9	-0.3
Oregon	Utah	0.6	0.7	-0.8
Vanderbilt	Florida	-13.6	-14.0	-15.1
Baylor	TCU	-2.2	-2.2	-2.2
Arkansas	Ole Miss	1.2	1.2	2.4
Southern Miss.	South Alabama	-4.3	-4.4	-5.1
Oklahoma	Oklahoma St.	2.9	3.3	3.1
Nebraska	Wisconsin	-8.7	-8.8	-9.4
Missouri	New Mexico St.	31.3	29.5	30.9
Troy	Louisiana-Monroe	14.2	14.4	15.4
Buffalo	Akron	17.2	18.4	19.1
Charlotte	Louisiana Tech	-2.1	-2.3	-1.4
Middle Tennessee	Florida Atlantic	-4.8	-5.5	-4.4
UTEP	Florida Int’l.	21.8	19.9	22.5
Texas St.	Arkansas St.	4.4	4.3	5.2
Georgia Southern	Marshall	-1.8	-2.7	-1.7
Wyoming	Boise St.	-14.7	-12.6	-14.4
Nevada	Fresno St.	-17.5	-15.7	-18.3
Hawaii	UNLV	-11.7	-9.3	-11.0

FBS vs. FCS Games

FBS	FCS	PiRate
Alabama	Austin Peay	46.9
BYU	Utah Tech	37.7
Mississippi St.	East Tennessee	35.7
Memphis	North Alabama	32.0

Bye Week

North Texas

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#	Team	Rating
1	Georgia	134.0
2	Ohio St.	133.0
3	Alabama	128.8
4	Michigan	127.8
5	Tennessee	126.9
6	Penn St.	121.7
7	Florida St.	118.8
8	Kansas St.	118.7
9	Utah	118.4
10	T C U	118.1
11	L S U	117.8
12	Clemson	117.7
13	Minnesota	115.7
14	Texas	115.7
15	Oregon	115.6
16	Ole Miss	113.9
17	Notre Dame	113.8
18	Mississippi St.	113.4
19	Wisconsin	113.4
20	Baylor	113.4
21	Iowa	113.4
22	U S C	113.2
23	Purdue	112.7
24	Arkansas	112.5
25	Louisville	112.5
26	Florida	111.6
27	U C L A	111.2
28	Illinois	111.1
29	Oklahoma	111.0
30	Oregon St.	111.0
31	NC State	110.1
32	Michigan St.	110.0
33	Oklahoma St.	109.9
34	North Carolina	109.9
35	Washington	109.5
36	Pittsburgh	109.4
37	Texas Tech	109.4
38	Wake Forest	108.9
39	Maryland	108.8
40	Iowa St.	108.4
41	Texas A&M	108.3
42	Cincinnati	108.3
43	UCF	108.1
44	Washington St.	107.6
45	Kentucky	107.3
46	Boise St.	106.0
47	Auburn	105.6
48	South Carolina	104.9
49	Kansas	104.7
50	SMU	104.0
51	Syracuse	103.8
52	Tulane	103.6
53	BYU	103.5
54	East Carolina	103.5
55	West Virginia	103.3
56	Missouri	103.1
57	Air Force	102.6
58	Miami (Fla.)	102.5
59	Arizona St.	101.9
60	Nebraska	101.4
61	Liberty	100.6
62	Fresno St.	100.4
63	W. Kentucky	100.3
64	Houston	100.2
65	U T S A	100.2
66	Duke	99.8
67	James Madison	98.7
68	Arizona	98.5
69	Memphis	98.4
70	Appalachian St.	98.3
71	U A B	98.1
72	Toledo	98.0
73	Rutgers	97.9
74	California	97.4
75	Stanford	97.2
76	Indiana	97.2
77	Virginia	96.7
78	Georgia St.	96.2
79	Northwestern	96.0
80	Troy	96.0
81	Marshall	95.7
82	South Alabama	95.6
83	Boston College	95.5
84	Army	95.2
85	Vanderbilt	94.9
86	Coastal Carolina	94.5
87	Virginia Tech	94.1
88	Louisiana	93.8
89	San Diego St.	93.8
90	Ohio	93.8
91	San Jose St.	93.7
92	Navy	93.5
93	North Texas	92.5
94	Tulsa	92.5
95	Georgia Tech	92.0
96	N. Illinois	91.8
97	Florida Atlantic	91.8
98	Ga. Southern	91.1
99	Central Mich.	91.0
100	Kent St.	91.0
101	Buffalo	90.8
102	Utah St.	89.9
103	Wyoming	89.1
104	Miami (Ohio)	88.8
105	Southern Miss.	88.5
106	U N L V	87.8
107	USF	87.6
108	Ball St.	87.2
109	Western Mich.	87.1
110	Old Dominion	86.9
111	Eastern Mich.	86.1
112	Connecticut	85.6
113	Colorado	85.1
114	U T E P	84.5
115	Middle Tennessee	84.4
116	UL-Monroe	83.8
117	Bowling Green	83.6
118	Texas St.	83.5
119	Temple	81.9
120	Colorado St.	81.5
121	Arkansas St.	81.3
122	Rice	80.7
123	Nevada	80.3
124	Louisiana Tech	79.5
125	New Mexico	77.9
126	New Mexico St.	75.5
127	Akron	75.1
128	Charlotte	75.0
129	Hawaii	74.1
130	Massachusetts	70.6
131	Florida Int’l.	65.5

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	108.4	107.6	108.8	108.3
UCF	107.6	108.4	108.4	108.1
SMU	104.1	103.5	104.4	104.0
Tulane	103.7	103.3	103.8	103.6
East Carolina	103.3	103.0	104.1	103.5
Houston	100.5	99.8	100.3	100.2
Memphis	98.4	98.6	98.1	98.4
Navy	93.8	93.4	93.4	93.5
Tulsa	93.0	92.2	92.2	92.5
USF	88.4	87.4	87.2	87.6
Temple	81.8	83.0	80.8	81.9
AAC	98.5	98.2	98.3	98.3
Atlantic Coast
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Florida St.	118.9	118.6	118.8	118.8
Clemson	117.8	117.5	117.9	117.7
Louisville	112.8	112.4	112.3	112.5
NC State	110.7	110.0	109.7	110.1
Wake Forest	109.1	108.8	108.7	108.9
Syracuse	104.7	103.5	103.3	103.8
Boston College	95.7	96.3	94.4	95.5
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
North Carolina	110.2	110.2	109.5	109.9
Pittsburgh	110.3	109.3	108.8	109.4
Miami (Fla.)	103.1	102.4	102.0	102.5
Duke	99.5	101.3	98.5	99.8
Virginia	97.3	97.4	95.5	96.7
Virginia Tech	94.7	94.7	92.8	94.1
Georgia Tech	92.8	92.4	90.9	92.0
ACC	105.5	105.3	104.5	105.1
Big 12
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Kansas St.	119.3	118.1	118.7	118.7
T C U	118.7	117.5	118.2	118.1
Texas	116.6	115.6	115.0	115.7
Baylor	114.0	112.8	113.4	113.4
Oklahoma	111.5	110.5	111.1	111.0
Oklahoma St.	110.6	109.2	110.0	109.9
Texas Tech	109.6	108.6	109.9	109.4
Iowa St.	108.7	108.2	108.3	108.4
Kansas	105.8	104.5	104.0	104.7
West Virginia	103.7	103.2	103.1	103.3
Big 12	111.8	110.8	111.2	111.3
Big Ten
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	133.3	132.3	133.4	133.0
Michigan	128.1	127.4	128.0	127.8
Penn St.	121.8	121.7	121.7	121.7
Michigan St.	111.0	109.8	109.2	110.0
Maryland	109.5	109.0	108.1	108.8
Rutgers	99.1	98.1	96.6	97.9
Indiana	98.2	97.3	96.0	97.2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Minnesota	116.1	115.4	115.7	115.7
Wisconsin	113.8	113.5	112.9	113.4
Iowa	114.2	113.3	112.6	113.4
Purdue	113.5	112.7	111.8	112.7
Illinois	111.4	111.7	110.2	111.1
Nebraska	102.1	101.7	100.6	101.4
Northwestern	96.3	96.8	95.0	96.0
Big Ten	112.0	111.5	110.8	111.4
Conference USA
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
W. Kentucky	99.7	99.8	101.4	100.3
U T S A	100.1	99.6	100.7	100.2
U A B	97.8	97.7	98.9	98.1
North Texas	92.1	92.0	93.3	92.5
Florida Atlantic	91.5	92.6	91.2	91.8
U T E P	84.6	84.5	84.2	84.5
Middle Tennessee	84.2	84.6	84.3	84.4
Rice	80.7	80.7	80.6	80.7
Louisiana Tech	79.4	80.3	78.7	79.5
Charlotte	74.8	75.5	74.8	75.0
Florida Int’l.	65.3	67.1	64.2	65.5
CUSA	86.4	86.8	86.6	86.6
Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	114.2	112.9	114.2	113.8
BYU	104.0	102.7	103.8	103.5
Liberty	99.9	100.9	101.0	100.6
Army	94.9	95.3	95.5	95.2
Connecticut	85.5	86.8	84.6	85.6
New Mexico St.	75.0	76.9	74.6	75.5
Massachusetts	70.8	71.7	69.3	70.6
Independents	92.0	92.5	91.9	92.1
Mid-American
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio	92.3	94.6	94.4	93.8
Kent St.	90.4	92.0	90.6	91.0
Buffalo	89.6	91.6	91.3	90.8
Miami (Ohio)	87.8	89.7	88.9	88.8
Bowling Green	83.7	83.5	83.6	83.6
Akron	74.9	75.7	74.6	75.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Toledo	97.4	98.3	98.2	98.0
N. Illinois	91.6	92.0	91.8	91.8
Central Mich.	89.6	91.4	92.0	91.0
Ball St.	86.6	87.9	87.3	87.2
Western Mich.	86.7	87.5	87.1	87.1
Eastern Mich.	85.8	86.5	85.9	86.1
MAC	88.0	89.2	88.8	88.7
Mountain West
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	105.9	105.5	106.7	106.0
Air Force	102.4	102.3	103.1	102.6
Utah St.	89.8	89.9	90.0	89.9
Wyoming	88.2	89.9	89.3	89.1
Colorado St.	81.1	82.0	81.6	81.5
New Mexico	78.4	78.2	77.0	77.9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Fresno St.	100.4	99.9	100.9	100.4
San Diego St.	93.8	93.4	94.1	93.8
San Jose St.	93.4	93.7	94.0	93.7
U N L V	88.0	86.8	88.4	87.8
Nevada	80.0	81.2	79.6	80.3
Hawaii	73.4	74.6	74.4	74.1
MWC	89.6	89.8	89.9	89.8
Pac-12
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Utah	118.2	117.6	119.5	118.4
Oregon	115.8	115.3	115.7	115.6
U S C	112.8	113.1	113.8	113.2
U C L A	110.8	110.7	112.0	111.2
Oregon St.	110.9	110.4	111.7	111.0
Washington	109.2	109.4	110.0	109.5
Washington St.	107.1	107.5	108.1	107.6
Arizona St.	101.9	101.4	102.3	101.9
Arizona	98.3	98.3	98.9	98.5
California	97.2	97.2	97.9	97.4
Stanford	98.2	96.4	97.0	97.2
Colorado	85.8	84.4	85.0	85.1
Pac-12	105.5	105.1	106.0	105.5
Southeastern
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	133.9	133.1	134.9	134.0
Tennessee	126.6	126.7	127.5	126.9
Florida	111.0	112.2	111.7	111.6
Kentucky	107.0	107.3	107.5	107.3
South Carolina	105.1	104.8	104.9	104.9
Missouri	103.2	103.4	102.5	103.1
Vanderbilt	94.9	95.6	94.1	94.9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	128.9	128.0	129.4	128.8
L S U	118.0	117.5	117.8	117.8
Ole Miss	114.7	113.4	113.7	113.9
Mississippi St.	114.3	112.9	113.2	113.4
Arkansas	112.9	111.6	113.1	112.5
Texas A&M	108.1	108.4	108.4	108.3
Auburn	106.4	105.0	105.3	105.6
SEC	113.2	112.9	113.1	113.1
Sunbelt
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
James Madison	97.1	98.5	100.4	98.7
Appalachian St.	97.3	98.4	99.0	98.3
Georgia St.	95.7	95.7	97.3	96.2
Marshall	95.0	96.0	96.0	95.7
Coastal Carolina	93.7	94.7	95.1	94.5
Ga. Southern	90.8	90.8	91.8	91.1
Old Dominion	86.9	86.9	87.0	86.9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Troy	95.2	95.8	96.9	96.0
South Alabama	94.7	95.4	96.6	95.6
Louisiana	93.1	93.6	94.7	93.8
Southern Miss.	87.9	88.5	89.0	88.5
UL-Monroe	83.5	84.0	83.9	83.8
Texas St.	82.7	83.8	83.9	83.5
Arkansas St.	80.8	82.0	81.2	81.3
Sun Belt	91.0	91.7	92.4	91.7

Conference Ratings

#	Conference	Rating
1	Southeastern	113.1
2	Big Ten	111.4
3	Big 12	111.3
4	Pac-12	105.5
5	Atlantic Coast	105.1
6	American Athletic	98.3
7	Independents	92.1
8	Sun Belt	91.7
9	Mountain West	89.8
10	Mid-American	88.7
11	Conference USA	86.6

Bowl Projections

Bowl	Team	Team
Bahamas	Western Kentucky	Ohio
Cure	Troy	Tulane
Fenway	Syracuse	Cincinnati
New Mexico	North Texas	Wyoming
L.A.	Washington	Fresno St.
Lending Tree	Middle Tennessee	Louisiana
Las Vegas	Oregon	Mississippi St.
Frisco	South Alabama	San Jose St.
Myrtle Beach	Coastal Carolina	Liberty
Famous Idaho Potato	Ball St.	Utah St.
Boca Raton	Marshall	Connecticut
New Orleans	Florida Atlantic	Appalachian St.
Armed Forces	Houston	UAB
Independence	SMU	UNLV
Gasparilla	Miami (Fla.)	Maryland
Hawaii	UTSA	Boise St.
Quick Lane	Wisconsin	Eastern Michigan
Camellia	Buffalo	Georgia Southern
First Responder	Arizona	San Diego St.
Birmingham	Louisville	Memphis
Guaranteed Rate	Kansas	Michigan St.
Military	Wake Forest	East Carolina
Liberty	Baylor	Kentucky
Holiday	Notre Dame	UCLA
Texas	Texas Tech	Missouri
Pinstripe	Pittsburgh	Minnesota
Cheez-It	North Carolina	Texas
Alamo	Oklahoma St.	Washington St.
Duke’s Mayo	Duke	Iowa
Tony the Tiger Sun	North Carolina St.	Oregon St.
Arizona	Toledo	Air Force
Orange	Clemson	Alabama
Music City	Illinois	BYU
Sugar	LSU	Kansas St.
TaxSlayer	Florida St.	South Carolina
Peach	Georgia	Tennessee
Fiesta	Ohio St.	TCU
Reliaquest (Outback)	Purdue	Florida
Citrus	Penn St.	Ole Miss
Cotton	Utah	Central Florida
Rose	USC	Michigan
National Championship	Georgia	Ohio St.

PiRate Ratings College Football–November 6, 2022

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Akron	Eastern Michigan	-9.1	-9.3	-9.9
Miami (O)	Ohio	0.8	0.4	0.0
Toledo	Ball St.	13.7	13.6	14.4
Western Michigan	Northern Illinois	-2.5	-2.0	-2.2
Central Michigan	Buffalo	2.3	1.8	2.6
Bowling Green	Kent St.	1.1	-0.7	1.2
Memphis	Tulsa	6.7	7.7	6.8
Louisiana	Georgia Southern	2.1	2.3	2.3
Cincinnati	East Carolina	8.6	8.3	8.5
USC	Colorado	28.0	29.9	29.8
UNLV	Fresno St.	-10.1	-11.1	-10.6
Wake Forest	North Carolina	1.6	1.2	1.8
Syracuse	Florida St.	-5.2	-5.8	-5.9
Connecticut	Liberty	-16.5	-16.3	-19.3
Duke	Virginia Tech	5.2	7.1	5.7
Navy (Bal)	Notre Dame	-22.7	-21.9	-23.8
West Virginia	Oklahoma	-6.8	-6.6	-7.4
Virginia	Pittsburgh	-7.6	-6.6	-7.5
Ohio St.	Indiana	37.7	37.4	40.2
Tennessee	Missouri	23.1	22.9	24.6
Penn St.	Maryland	12.1	12.1	12.9
North Carolina St.	Boston College	22.3	20.8	23.2
Florida	South Carolina	3.8	5.4	4.2
Kentucky	Vanderbilt	19.7	19.5	21.6
Michigan	Nebraska	28.8	28.5	30.3
Georgia Tech	Miami (Fla.)	-5.0	-4.2	-5.3
Clemson	Louisville	7.3	7.1	7.4
Texas Tech	Kansas	5.7	5.7	7.7
South Florida	SMU	-12.8	-13.2	-14.4
Coastal Carolina	Southern Miss.	9.2	9.7	9.9
Georgia St.	Louisiana-Monroe	18.1	17.9	20.1
Marshall	Appalachian St.	0.1	-0.2	-1.2
Old Dominion	James Madison	-2.6	-4.0	-6.0
Tulane	Central Florida	-0.5	-1.3	-0.8
Minnesota	Northwestern	22.4	20.8	23.1
Illinois	Purdue	2.3	3.9	3.4
South Alabama	Texas St.	14.3	13.6	14.8
Michigan St.	Rutgers	16.1	16.1	17.4
Houston	Temple	23.8	21.7	25.2
Baylor	Kansas St.	3.7	3.9	4.1
Arkansas St.	Massachusetts	14.1	14.6	16.6
Western Kentucky	Rice	18.3	18.2	19.9
Utah	Stanford	20.4	21.6	22.9
Washington St.	Arizona St.	8.0	8.9	8.6
Oregon St.	California	14.1	13.2	13.6
Oregon	Washington	12.4	11.6	11.9
UCLA	Arizona	19.4	19.5	20.6
San Diego St.	San Jose St.	-0.2	-1.2	-0.9
Texas	TCU	4.2	4.5	3.4
Auburn	Texas A&M	1.0	-0.9	-0.8
Troy	Army	3.5	4.1	5.4
Ole Miss	Alabama	-11.6	-12.4	-13.9
Oklahoma St.	Iowa St.	4.7	3.4	4.1
Iowa	Wisconsin	1.1	0.2	0.0
Arkansas	LSU	-1.8	-2.6	-1.5
Mississippi St.	Georgia	-14.2	-14.6	-16.1
Air Force	New Mexico	26.7	26.5	28.6
Middle Tennessee	Charlotte	12.1	11.8	12.6
UAB	North Texas	5.4	5.2	4.9
UTSA	Louisiana Tech	18.3	16.5	19.4
Colorado St.	Wyoming	-5.4	-6.3	-6.3
Florida Int’l.	Florida Atlantic	-19.9	-18.8	-20.3
Nevada	Boise St.	-20.0	-18.0	-21.0
Hawaii	Utah St.	-13.8	-12.7	-13.4

FBS vs. FCS Game

FBS	FCS	PiRate
New Mexico St.	Lamar	18.2

Teams With Byes

BYU

UTEP

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Note: Our ratings are not reward based on what the teams have done so far. They are predictive in nature, meant to be used for the following week to predict the outcome of games. Thus, a two-loss team is ranked number three over a one-loss team that beat them. Do not confuse power ratings for rankings like the AP, COaches, and Playoff Polls.

#	Team	Rating
1	Ohio St.	132.8
2	Georgia	132.7
3	Alabama	129.2
4	Michigan	127.6
5	Tennessee	125.3
6	Penn St.	119.8
7	L S U	117.5
8	Texas	117.3
9	Clemson	117.2
10	Utah	117.1
11	Oregon	117.1
12	Baylor	116.5
13	T C U	116.2
14	Florida St.	116.0
15	Kansas St.	115.6
16	Notre Dame	115.6
17	Minnesota	115.4
18	Mississippi St.	114.7
19	Wisconsin	114.5
20	Ole Miss	113.5
21	U C L A	113.1
22	Louisville	113.0
23	NC State	112.7
24	Arkansas	112.5
25	U S C	112.3
26	Oklahoma	112.2
27	Iowa	112.0
28	Illinois	111.8
29	Purdue	111.6
30	Michigan St.	110.7
31	Maryland	110.4
32	Oklahoma St.	109.7
33	Kentucky	109.7
34	North Carolina	109.6
35	Oregon St.	109.5
36	Wake Forest	109.2
37	Florida	109.0
38	Cincinnati	108.8
39	Texas Tech	108.7
40	Texas A&M	108.7
41	Iowa St.	108.6
42	Pittsburgh	108.4
43	Washington	108.1
44	South Carolina	107.6
45	Washington St.	107.5
46	UCF	107.4
47	Syracuse	107.3
48	Auburn	105.5
49	Kansas	105.4
50	Missouri	104.7
51	Boise St.	104.2
52	Tulane	104.0
53	SMU	103.8
54	East Carolina	103.3
55	BYU	103.2
56	Liberty	103.1
57	Air Force	102.4
58	West Virginia	102.3
59	Arizona St.	102.0
60	Houston	101.5
61	Nebraska	101.4
62	Miami (Fla.)	101.2
63	Fresno St.	100.6
64	California	98.9
65	Appalachian St.	98.7
66	Duke	98.7
67	W. Kentucky	98.6
68	Stanford	98.5
69	Toledo	98.3
70	Georgia St.	98.1
71	Virginia	98.1
72	Memphis	97.7
73	U T S A	97.5
74	Indiana	97.4
75	Rutgers	97.2
76	U A B	96.6
77	Northwestern	96.3
78	Arizona	96.3
79	Troy	96.3
80	James Madison	95.9
81	Virginia Tech	95.7
82	South Alabama	95.4
83	San Jose St.	95.4
84	Marshall	95.3
85	Army	94.9
86	Coastal Carolina	94.8
87	North Texas	94.0
88	Boston College	93.6
89	Georgia Tech	93.3
90	Tulsa	93.1
91	Ga. Southern	92.6
92	Vanderbilt	92.5
93	Louisiana	92.3
94	Navy	92.2
95	San Diego St.	92.1
96	Ohio	92.1
97	N. Illinois	91.8
98	Buffalo	91.0
99	Central Mich.	90.8
100	Miami (Ohio)	90.5
101	Utah St.	90.2
102	Old Dominion	89.7
103	Wyoming	89.3
104	Florida Atlantic	89.2
105	Southern Miss.	88.2
106	Kent St.	88.0
107	USF	87.8
108	U N L V	87.5
109	Western Mich.	87.1
110	Ball St.	86.9
111	Bowling Green	86.6
112	Eastern Mich.	86.3
113	Colorado	86.0
114	Middle Tennessee	84.5
115	U T E P	84.3
116	Texas St.	83.7
117	Connecticut	83.2
118	Rice	82.3
119	Arkansas St.	82.3
120	Nevada	82.1
121	UL-Monroe	81.9
122	Louisiana Tech	81.9
123	Colorado St.	81.3
124	Temple	80.9
125	New Mexico	78.1
126	Charlotte	74.9
127	Akron	74.9
128	New Mexico St.	74.8
129	Hawaii	73.8
130	Massachusetts	69.7
131	Florida Int’l.	68.1

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	108.8	108.1	109.4	108.8
UCF	107.0	107.6	107.6	107.4
Tulane	104.0	103.8	104.3	104.0
SMU	103.9	103.3	104.2	103.8
East Carolina	103.2	102.8	103.8	103.3
Houston	101.7	100.9	101.8	101.5
Memphis	97.8	98.0	97.3	97.7
Tulsa	93.6	92.8	93.0	93.1
Navy	92.6	92.2	91.9	92.2
USF	88.6	87.6	87.4	87.8
Temple	80.9	82.2	79.6	80.9
AAC	98.4	98.1	98.2	98.2
Atlantic Coast
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	117.4	117.0	117.3	117.2
Florida St.	116.2	115.8	115.9	116.0
Louisville	113.2	112.9	112.9	113.0
NC State	113.2	112.4	112.5	112.7
Wake Forest	109.4	109.1	109.0	109.2
Syracuse	108.1	107.0	106.9	107.3
Boston College	93.9	94.6	92.3	93.6
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
North Carolina	109.9	109.9	109.2	109.6
Pittsburgh	109.3	108.3	107.6	108.4
Miami (Fla.)	101.9	101.0	100.6	101.2
Duke	98.4	100.3	97.2	98.7
Virginia	98.6	98.7	97.0	98.1
Virginia Tech	96.3	96.2	94.6	95.7
Georgia Tech	94.0	93.8	92.3	93.3
ACC	105.7	105.5	104.7	105.3
Big 12
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Texas	118.1	117.2	116.6	117.3
Baylor	117.0	115.9	116.6	116.5
T C U	116.9	115.6	116.3	116.2
Kansas St.	116.3	115.0	115.5	115.6
Oklahoma	112.6	111.7	112.4	112.2
Oklahoma St.	110.5	108.9	109.7	109.7
Texas Tech	109.0	107.9	109.3	108.7
Iowa St.	108.8	108.5	108.6	108.6
Kansas	106.4	105.2	104.6	105.4
West Virginia	102.8	102.2	102.0	102.3
Big 12	111.8	110.8	111.2	111.3
Big Ten
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	133.1	132.0	133.3	132.8
Michigan	127.9	127.2	127.8	127.6
Penn St.	120.0	119.8	119.7	119.8
Michigan St.	111.6	110.5	110.1	110.7
Maryland	111.0	110.6	109.8	110.4
Indiana	98.4	97.6	96.1	97.4
Rutgers	98.5	97.4	95.7	97.2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Minnesota	115.9	115.0	115.4	115.4
Wisconsin	114.8	114.6	114.1	114.5
Iowa	112.9	111.9	111.1	112.0
Illinois	112.0	112.5	111.1	111.8
Purdue	112.6	111.6	110.6	111.6
Nebraska	102.1	101.7	100.6	101.4
Northwestern	96.5	97.2	95.3	96.3
Big Ten	112.0	111.4	110.8	111.4
Conference USA
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
W. Kentucky	98.1	98.1	99.7	98.6
U T S A	97.5	96.8	98.0	97.5
U A B	96.4	96.2	97.3	96.6
North Texas	93.5	93.5	94.9	94.0
Florida Atlantic	89.1	90.0	88.6	89.2
Middle Tennessee	84.3	84.7	84.6	84.5
U T E P	84.4	84.3	84.0	84.3
Rice	82.3	82.4	82.3	82.3
Louisiana Tech	81.7	82.8	81.1	81.9
Charlotte	74.7	75.4	74.5	74.9
Florida Int’l.	67.7	69.7	66.8	68.1
CUSA	86.3	86.7	86.5	86.5
Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	115.9	114.6	116.2	115.6
BYU	103.7	102.4	103.5	103.2
Liberty	102.2	103.3	103.7	103.1
Army	94.8	95.0	95.0	94.9
Connecticut	83.2	84.4	81.9	83.2
New Mexico St.	74.3	76.2	73.9	74.8
Massachusetts	70.0	70.8	68.2	69.7
Independents	92.0	92.4	91.8	92.1
Mid-American
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio	90.7	92.9	92.6	92.1
Buffalo	89.7	91.9	91.6	91.0
Miami (Ohio)	89.4	91.4	90.7	90.5
Kent St.	87.5	89.1	87.5	88.0
Bowling Green	86.6	86.4	86.7	86.6
Akron	74.8	75.5	74.3	74.9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Toledo	97.6	98.6	98.7	98.3
N. Illinois	91.6	92.0	91.8	91.8
Central Mich.	89.5	91.1	91.7	90.8
Western Mich.	86.7	87.5	87.1	87.1
Ball St.	86.4	87.6	86.8	86.9
Eastern Mich.	85.9	86.7	86.2	86.3
MAC	88.0	89.2	88.8	88.7
Mountain West
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	104.2	103.6	104.9	104.2
Air Force	102.2	102.0	102.9	102.4
Utah St.	90.0	90.1	90.4	90.2
Wyoming	88.3	90.1	89.6	89.3
Colorado St.	81.0	81.8	81.3	81.3
New Mexico	78.6	78.5	77.2	78.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Fresno St.	100.5	100.2	101.2	100.6
San Jose St.	94.9	95.4	95.8	95.4
San Diego St.	92.3	91.7	92.3	92.1
U N L V	87.9	86.5	88.1	87.5
Nevada	81.7	83.1	81.4	82.1
Hawaii	73.2	74.4	74.0	73.8
MWC	89.6	89.8	89.9	89.8
Pac-12
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Utah	116.9	116.3	118.2	117.1
Oregon	117.2	116.7	117.3	117.1
U C L A	112.6	112.6	114.1	113.1
U S C	111.8	112.2	112.8	112.3
Oregon St.	109.6	108.9	110.1	109.5
Washington	107.8	108.0	108.4	108.1
Washington St.	107.0	107.4	108.0	107.5
Arizona St.	102.0	101.5	102.4	102.0
California	98.5	98.7	99.5	98.9
Stanford	99.5	97.7	98.3	98.5
Arizona	96.2	96.1	96.5	96.3
Colorado	86.8	85.3	86.0	86.0
Pac-12	105.5	105.1	106.0	105.5
Southeastern
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	132.7	131.8	133.6	132.7
Tennessee	125.0	125.0	125.8	125.3
Kentucky	109.3	109.7	110.1	109.7
Florida	108.4	109.7	108.9	109.0
South Carolina	107.7	107.3	107.7	107.6
Missouri	104.8	105.1	104.2	104.7
Vanderbilt	92.6	93.2	91.5	92.5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	129.1	128.4	130.0	129.2
L S U	117.7	117.2	117.5	117.5
Mississippi St.	115.5	114.2	114.5	114.7
Ole Miss	114.5	113.0	113.1	113.5
Arkansas	112.9	111.6	113.1	112.5
Texas A&M	108.4	108.8	108.9	108.7
Auburn	106.4	104.9	105.1	105.5
SEC	113.2	112.9	113.1	113.1
Sunbelt
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	97.6	98.8	99.6	98.7
Georgia St.	97.4	97.5	99.4	98.1
James Madison	94.3	95.7	97.7	95.9
Marshall	94.7	95.6	95.4	95.3
Coastal Carolina	93.9	95.0	95.5	94.8
Ga. Southern	92.2	92.3	93.4	92.6
Old Dominion	89.7	89.7	89.7	89.7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Troy	95.3	96.1	97.4	96.3
South Alabama	94.6	95.1	96.4	95.4
Louisiana	91.7	92.1	93.1	92.3
Southern Miss.	87.7	88.2	88.6	88.2
Texas St.	82.8	84.1	84.1	83.7
Arkansas St.	81.6	82.9	82.3	82.3
UL-Monroe	81.8	82.2	81.8	81.9
Sun Belt	91.1	91.8	92.5	91.8

Conference Ratings

#	Conference	Rating
1	Southeastern	113.1
2	Big Ten	111.4
3	Big 12	111.3
4	Pac-12	105.5
5	Atlantic Coast	105.3
6	American Athletic	98.2
7	Independents	92.1
8	Sun Belt	91.8
9	Mountain West	89.8
10	Mid-American	88.7
11	Conference USA	86.5

Playoff & Bowl Projections

Four weeks from today, the College Football Playoffs and Postseason Bowl Game participants will be revealed to the public.  With less than a month to go, it’s time to take a more in-depth look at where things stand and where they might go.

The Playoff Race

After yesterday’s Georgia-Tennessee, Alabama-LSU, and Notre Dame-Clemson games played, it left three teams in the clear-cut lead to be in the top four this week.  Georgia has now penned the lone losses on Oregon and Tennessee, and the Bulldogs will ascend to number one.  Ohio State won ugly at Northwestern yesterday, but they played in severe weather.  Michigan once again spotted an opponent an early lead and then steamrolled Rutgers by four touchdowns.  Those three teams will be in the Big Four on Tuesday.  Who will be number four?  We believe it will be Tennessee, as losing at the new number one team by two touchdowns definitely tops Oregon’s blowout loss in Atlanta to the same team.  Should TCU be in the mix?  They most definitely should, but as so many media experts explain, their name drops them a couple spots in the rankings, just like Cincinnati last year at this time.  If the Horned Frogs win out with three tough games to go, they almost assuredly would move into the top four, but that’s a big if, and at the present time, having watched TCU play most of their games, we don’t see this team sitting at 13-0 on December 4.

If we have to make a wild guess, we will say that Georgia will easily win out in the regular season, even if their game in Starkville this week may be a trap game.  We cannot see any of Tennessee’s final three opponents competing against the Vols.  Georgia stopped their offense, because the Bulldogs have a defense not that much weaker than the Detroit Lions (probably more future Pro Bowl players than the Lions).  Neither Ohio State nor Michigan have much in their way prior to the big game at the Giant Horseshoe.  It won’t be popular, but a Big Ten-SEC Challenge in the Playoffs could be in the offing.  As of today, we have Georgia playing Michigan in the Peach Bowl, and Ohio State playing Tennessee in the Fiesta Bowl.  Oregon might win out and finish 12-1 and have to settle for the Rose Bowl.  We can see TCU actually losing twice in the next month, and maybe having to settle for the Cotton Bowl or even the Alamo Bowl, depending on what UCLA or USC does out West.

The New Year’s Six

One thing that happened this weekend was the elimination of Alabama and most likely Clemson from the Playoff picture.  With LSU’s win, the Tigers have a tough rebound game at Arkansas, and if Brian Kelly can lead the Bayou Bengals into Fayetteville and win, they almost have the SEC West clinched.  At 10-2 and a loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, we believe the Sugar Bowl will take them in a heartbeat.  Where would that leave a 10-2 Alabama?  We think they would still get an Orange Bowl bid, where they might face their former nemesis Clemson.  The Rose Bowl would get the Pac-12 champion that would not be Playoff bound, so we’ll slot Oregon in there for now but not rule out the winner of the USC-UCLA game.  That leaves the Cotton Bowl.  The Group of Five team that finishes the highest in the ratings will automatically get a bid here.  If that bid was extended today, the Tulane Green Wave would receive it, but TU must beat Central Florida, Cincinnati, and then one of those two again in the AAC Championship Game to get to 12-1 and secure the bid.  Should TU falter, and we think that’s a very high possibility, the next team in line, one that strengthened their resume with a road win against an SEC team, would be Liberty, if the Flames win out (a much higher probability than Tulane).  The last at-large team in the field would most likely be Penn State at 10-2, but the number two team in the Pac-12 could beat the Nittany Lions out.  With losses to just two teams that we pick to be in the Playoffs, we’d go with Penn State to edge out any two-loss Pac-12 team.

American Athletic

As we previously mentioned, we do not see Tulane winning out, and should the Green Wave lose to both Central Florida and Cincinnati, they won’t even make the AAC Championship Game.  If they beat UCF in New Orleans, they would have to beat Cinti in consecutive weeks to get there, once in the Queen City and then once in the Crescent City.  If the Bearcats win out, and Tulane beats UCF, then Cinti would host Tulane in consecutive weeks.  If UCF wins out, and Cincinnati tops Tulane, then the Bearcats would have to go to Orlando in the conference championship game.

Elsewhere in the AAC, with SMU’s record-setting basketball score win over Houston, the Mustangs are almost a lock to get a bowl bid.  East Carolina is already bowl eligible.  Houston and Memphis have work to do, but the schedule is favorable for both.  As for the Cougars, Dana Holgersen may not be coaching the team by bowl season.

Atlantic Coast & Notre Dame

A half-dozen teams will have to lose games before Clemson has a remote chance to sneak into the playoffs, assuming the Tigers can win out.  If they play like they have the last few weeks, beating North Carolina in the ACC Championship Game would be 50-50 at best, and they might even be vulnerable against South Carolina in the regular season finale.  At best, CU can hope for another ACC title and a trip to the Orange Bowl.  North Carolina may be the weakest 1-loss team from a Power 5 Conference since the 20th Century.  The Tar Heels keep coming up with fourth quarter heroics to be mediocre teams.  We don’t believe Mack Brown’s Heels can make it to a New Year’s Bowl Game, and they need to finish better than one game ahead of Notre Dame just to get the Cheez-it Bowl bid.

Notre Dame can receive any of the ACC’s allotted bowl bids after the Orange Bowl as long as their won-loss record is within one game of the next highest ACC team.  If the Irish lose to USC and finish 9-3, they will be able to jump over a 10-2 team, but not an 11-2 team.  What better bowl to send the Irish to in December than one in Boston?  They’d sell out Fenway Park like a Yankees-Red Sox game in October.

With Notre Dame, this league figures to have 10 bowl eligible teams, which means all the first tier bowl bids will be taken, and one second tier bowl bid will be used.  We believe the Gasparilla Bowl will get the final ACC team.

Big 12

Had Texas been able to edge Alabama in September and not lose their star QB for a few games, the Longhorns might be in the Playoff mix.  The best the Longhorns can do now is to play spoiler and knock TCU out of the Playoff mix.  If Quinn Ewers can remain healthy and not have another three interception day like he did against Oklahoma State, the Longhorns might win out and become Big 12 Champions, getting a Sugar Bowl bid.

TCU must beat Texas and Baylor and then whoever makes the Big 12 Championship Game in order to get to the necessary 13-0 they will need to make the Playoffs, and it looks like too much of a longshot.  It is going to be rough just getting to the Sugar Bowl, and two losses most likely banishes the Frogs to the Alamo Bowl.

Elsewhere in the league, Kansas has now assured themselves of their first bowl bid in 14 years.  Texas Tech and Iowa State are now fighting it out for the last bowl bid in this league, and we believe there will be eight teams playing in the postseason.  If no Big 12 team gets to the Playoffs, there will be one extra team to fill in as an at-large bowl participant, and it is our belief that they will replace a spot that the SEC cannot fill.

Big Ten

We show three of the bowl eligible teams playing in either the Playoffs or New Year’s Six, so Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State being taken off the table means the other New Year’s Day games against SEC teams will have lesser teams.  The Citrus Bowl is likely to go to the West Division Champion that will then get clobbered in the Big Ten Championship Game.  At the moment, even with a loss this weekend, Illinois has the upper hand.  The Reliaquest (Outback) bowl bid would then probably go to the West Division runner-up. 

There should be 10 Bowl Eligible teams with many of the also-rans beating up on each other, so the Big Ten will be able to fill its allotment all the way down to the Quick Lane Bowl.  That requires Michigan State to win two more games, but we think Sparty does that.

Conference USA

It is the weakest overall conference in FBS football, but geography is on CUSA’s side.  This year, the two best teams are in the Lone Star State as UTSA and North Texas have moved to the top of the standings and figure to play in the title game.  Western Kentucky, Rice, Florida Atlantic, and Middle Tennessee are quite mediocre, but all four could end up with six losses and become bowl eligible.  The last bowl bid available figures to come down to the number six CUSA team and the number eight Mountain West team.  Because that final bowl spot is likely to be from a game east of the Mississippi River, a 6-6 CUSA team should get in over a 6-6 MWC team.

Independents

Notre Dame is not counted as an independent since they can receive an ACC bid.  Army and BYU are guaranteed bowl bids if they are bowl eligible.  BYU should sneak in, but Army is looking at a potential 5-7 or 4-8 season.

Liberty will get a bowl bid, and if the Flames win out, they could be feeling some soft Cotton in Texas.  The big surprise team that few people have taken notice to since September is Connecticut.  The Huskies could very well become bowl eligible in Jim Mora Jr.’s first season in Storrs.

Mid-American

Toledo frequently appears to be the most talented team in the MAC, but the Rockets always stub their toes and fail to win the conference championship.  They will have to look hard for something to bang their feet on this year.  Losing another game would be a major Rocket malfunction.  The rest of this league has a lot of parity, but there should be seven bowl eligible teams the first Sunday in December.  All seven will get bowl bids.  The question is, “who will be forced to spend December in Boise?”

Mountain West

This has been another down year in the MWC, and with rumors swirling that more than one team could be moving to the Pac-12 or even Big 12, this league has lost some prestige.  Having Boise State no longer be great has hurt it even more.  The Broncos lost to a so-so BYU team Saturday, and their upcoming game at Wyoming may determine the Mountain Division champion.  Air Force and Utah State should also receive bowl bids on this side of the Rockies.

On the West side, Fresno State started slowly but is 10 to 14 points better than they were in early September.  San Jose State can still win the division, but the Bulldogs look like they have this race under control.  San Diego State also figures to be bowl eligible on this side.  Once considered a contender for the division title, UNLV is looking at a 6-6 record and quite possibly becoming the lone bowl eligible team that does not receive an invitation.

Pac-12

Too much parity has been the bane of this league for several years.  This year, there is a big division of haves and have-nots, and it likely means that the league will do no better than place a team in the Rose Bowl.  Oregon’s 40+ point loss to Georgia cannot be overlooked, and if the Ducks win out and finish 12-1, two or three teams ahead of the Ducks today will have to lose.  It won’t be easy for Oregon to win out.

UCLA, USC, and Utah are still in the mix for the Pac-12 title, and all three are talented enough to beat Oregon in December.  If UCLA or USC wins out and Oregon wins out, the loser of the Pac-12 Championship Game would still have a fair chance at receiving the Cotton Bowl bid as the last NY6 team.

Oregon State, Washington, and Washington State will also be bowl eligible and will satisfy the rest of the league allotment with no extra teams.  Oregon State could play spoiler in the Civil War game with the Ducks.

SEC

The overwhelming power of this league is most likely to leave the conference one team short of filling its bowl spots.  We see Georgia and Tennessee both making the playoff, and we see LSU and Alabama both getting NY6 bids.  We also see just 10 SEC teams becoming bowl eligible now that Texas A&M has collapsed and Arkansas tripped up at home against Liberty.  The Arkansas-Missouri winner on the final weekend should get the final bowl bid.  As of today, we have the Music City Bowl being the odd bowl out needing an at-large team, and the Big 12 is full of teams with fans that would love some country music during the holidays.

Sun Belt

The SBC pecking order is unique, and it is difficult to place teams in bowls because of it.  ESPN gets the first choice of teams to place in one of the bowl games they sponsor.  It doesn’t have to be the number one team in the league, just the number one choice.  Next, the New Orleans Bowl gets to choose its team after ESPN has taken its first choice.  The 3rd and 4th teams once again are chosen by ESPN for their bowls, and then the 5th team is chosen by the Lending Tree Bowl.  There figures to be seven bowl eligible teams from this league, which is fast becoming the second best G5 conference.  All seven will receive bids.

Bowl	Team	Team
Bahamas	Florida Atlantic	Bowling Green
Cure	South Alabama	Air Force
Fenway	Notre Dame	Cincinnati
New Mexico	Rice	San Jose St.
L.A.	Washington St.	Fresno St.
Lending Tree	Buffalo	Georgia Southern
Las Vegas	USC	Kentucky
Frisco	BYU	San Diego St.
Myrtle Beach	Ball St.	Appalachian St.
Famous Idaho Potato	Eastern Michigan	Utah St.
Boca Raton	Marshall	Connecticut
New Orleans	Western Kentucky	Coastal Carolina
Armed Forces	Tulane	UTSA
Independence	East Carolina	Southern Miss.
Gasparilla	Louisville	Houston
Hawaii	North Texas	Boise St.
Quick Lane	Michigan St.	Miami (O)
Camellia	Toledo	Troy
First Responder	Kansas	SMU
Birmingham	Memphis	Middle Tennessee
Guaranteed Rate	Oklahoma St.	Purdue
Military	Wake Forest	Central Florida
Liberty	Baylor	South Carolina
Holiday	Duke	Washington
Texas	Oklahoma	Missouri
Pinstripe	Pittsburgh	Wisconsin
Cheez-It	North Carolina	Kansas St.
Alamo	TCU	Utah
Duke’s Mayo	North Carolina St.	Maryland
Tony the Tiger Sun	Syracuse	Oregon St.
Arizona	Ohio U	Wyoming
Orange	Clemson	Alabama
Music City	Iowa	Texas Tech
Sugar	LSU	Texas
TaxSlayer	Florida St.	Mississippi St.
Peach	Georgia	Michigan
Fiesta	Ohio St.	Tennessee
Reliaquest (Outback)	Minnesota	Florida
Citrus	Illinois	Ole Miss
Cotton	UCLA	Liberty
Rose	Oregon	Penn St.
National Championship	Georgia	Ohio St.

College Football Update

Welcome back to the PiRate Ship.  We hope we have now plugged all the leaks onboard, and our vessel is seaworthy for the potential 9-month long, two-part football season.

As of this morning, 76 FBS football teams plan to play football in the Fall, and 54 FBS football teams hope to play in the Spring.

After working many hours more than in a typical season, the Bucs onboard our PiRate Ship have finally calculated the ratings for all 130 teams.

There is a fly in the ointment here.  Our annual ratings are based on a par score of 100.0.  In other words, if you total the ratings for the 130 teams, the PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings should each total to 13,000.  How can the ratings adjust to par if 54 teams play no games every week until at least February, while 76 teams do play?  Should we then adjust our ratings so that the 76 teams playing total to 7,600?  Doing so, would require changing all the ratings, so that one group totaled 7,600 and another group totaled 5,400.

Ah, but there’s more to this than meets the eyes.  Most of these teams will play a conference only schedule.  How can a computer algorithm properly compare a team in the Atlantic Coast Conference with a team in the Southeastern Conference if there are no inter-conference games?

For many years, Major League Baseball had no inter-league play.  The best team in the American League and the best team in the National League had no common opponents.  The 1954 New York Giants won 13 fewer games than the 1954 Cleveland Indians.  The baseball media believed this World Series could be over in the minimum four games.  They were 100% correct that it took just four games to decide the Series, but the wrong team won the four games.  Other than the Yankees and White Sox, the rest of the AL was about as weak as it has ever been in a non-World War season.   The NL was six-deep in quality that year, and the 6th place St. Louis Cardinals were talented enough to be a first division team in the AL.

With 16 total teams, it may be somewhat possible to compare any eight with any other eight when the two pairs of  eight never play.  That is not possible with 130 or 76 or 54 teams.  Our ratings may need to be adjusted so that each conference averages 100.0.  But, then where would that leave Brigham Young, Army, and Liberty?  These three Independents plan to play some number of games.  How can we possibly make these three teams total 300.0 and then play games against other teams in leagues that average 100.0?

That is where we are at the present time.  Our conclusion today, thanks to the evil Covid-19, Corona, is that we will release separate preseason ratings, three different ways.

Our first set of PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings will show you all 130 teams rated just like Covid never existed.

Our second set of PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings will show you the 76 teams playing this Fall.  If any of the remaining 54 teams actually play in the Spring, we will be here to rate those teams the best way we know how.

Our third set of PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings will show you the rating of teams within their own conference sampling.

Here’s an example, using a rating for State U.

Their normal preseason ratings might be

PiRate: 109.7

Mean: 108.9

Bias: 110.1

Let’s say State U plays in one of the 76 teams that plan to play this Fall.  After removing the ratings of the 54 teams not playing this fall, State U’s preseason ratings will no doubt change, because the exact average of those 54 teams will not be 100.0.  Let’s say that the 54 teams opting out due to Corona average 97.4.  The average of the remaining 76 teams is now 101.8.  Reducing that average to 100.0 might now adjust State U’s ratings to:

PiRate: 107.7

Mean:  106.9

Bias: 108.1

Let’s say that State U plays in the ACC, which will now have Notre Dame playing a full conference schedule this year.  The 15-team league will need to sum up to 1500.0 in all three ratings.  Normally, the ACC might have begun the preseason with a conference average of 110.0, or basically 10-points stronger than an average team.  Now State U’s ratings against a closed league of 15 ACC teams would have to be adjusted to:

PiRate: 99.7

Mean: 99.0

Bias: 100.1

So what ratings would we go with in this unique scenario?  We can submit the regular ratings before the first game is ever played, because nothing would be different in this regard.  Nobody has played a game, so the preseason ratings would be the same.  Definitely, we realize that with limited or no Spring Practice and with assumed 2-deep Depth Charts considerably less accurate than in past years, these ratings cannot be as accurate as past seasons.

If we wait until all 76 teams’ schedules are in place and then adjust the ratings so that every team will be rated on the same scale, then what happens when on Tuesday of a game week, one team has to quarantine and schedule somebody not rated on the same scale?  For instance, let’s say Florida State is scheduled to play North Carolina State, and the Wolf Pack has to cancel due to 20 positive cases.  What if at the same time Florida’s scheduled game with Vanderbilt is also postponed, because the Commodores must cancel.  Might a Florida State versus Florida game be scheduled on the quick?

Our final conclusion is to go with a 76-team ratings’ release that sum as close to 7600 for each rating and then to go with a different 54-team ratings’ release in the Spring, assuming the Spring actually does feature those 54 teams.

Monday afternoon Eastern Time, we will reveal our raw preseason ratings for the entire 130 teams and then separate ratings for the 76-team field, as well as ratings for teams by each conference.  We will then go with the 76-team format for the Fall season.

There will be no conference previews.  We will release ratings and pointspreads for weekly games, hoping that we can keep up with whatever alterations are made to the schedule.  We are sailing into the Corona Triangle this year.  Let’s hope we can get through it to the other side.

Note: In our few hours of spare time, we have been working on a tabletop football game with NFL teams and with college teams.  If you remember the old Avalon Hill/Sports Illustrated games that once existed, our games will be similar but different.  If we ever determine them to be marketable, you will not need the specialized 10-39 dice used by AH/SI.  Regular, 6-sided dice will work.  Hopefully, we will have the first set available to be purchased at a ridiculously cheap price with the chance to purchase future sets at additionally ridiculously cheap prices.  By sending out the charts in PDF form for you to print, we can sell the game for less than $10.  That is if we ever get any of the sets finished.  We have been working on three different sets–a 32-team Best of NFL by franchise from 2000 to 2019; the same best of for each SEC team between 2000 & 2019; and the best of for each Big Ten team between 2000 & 2019.  In the works in the future will be best of teams from each Major Conference between 2000 & 2019, as well as the best of NFL (and AFL) from 1960 to 1979, and from 1940 to 1959.

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 17: December 29, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

 

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Baltimore	Pittsburgh	13.8	13.6	14.0
Buffalo	N.Y. Jets	8.3	8.6	9.4
Carolina	New Orleans	-14.7	-13.4	-13.7
Cincinnati	Cleveland	-4.1	-4.5	-4.3
Dallas	Washington	16.0	15.4	15.5
Detroit	Green Bay	-7.2	-8.7	-9.2
Houston	Tennessee	1.4	1.7	1.7
Jacksonville	Indianapolis	-7.8	-8.5	-8.0
Kansas City	LA Chargers	9.2	10.2	10.9
Minnesota	Chicago	6.7	7.8	8.0
New England	Miami	21.7	22.0	21.6
N. Y. Giants	Philadelphia	-7.2	-5.7	-5.0
Tampa Bay	Atlanta	1.5	2.5	2.9
Denver	Oakland	7.1	7.6	7.3
LA Rams	Arizona	9.4	8.3	8.1
Seattle	San Francisco	-3.0	-3.9	-3.9

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

 

Home	Visitor	Total
Baltimore	Pittsburgh	44
Buffalo	N.Y. Jets	38
Carolina	New Orleans	53
Cincinnati	Cleveland	47.5
Dallas	Washington	41.5
Detroit	Green Bay	47.5
Houston	Tennessee	45
Jacksonville	Indianapolis	41
Kansas City	LA Chargers	51.5
Minnesota	Chicago	38.5
New England	Miami	48
N. Y. Giants	Philadelphia	49
Tampa Bay	Atlanta	55.5
Denver	Oakland	44.5
LA Rams	Arizona	51
Seattle	San Francisco	49.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	108.0	108.7	108.2	108.3	19.5	12-3
Buffalo	102.0	103.0	103.0	102.7	17	10-5
N. Y. Jets	94.7	95.4	94.6	94.9	21	6-9
Miami	89.4	89.7	89.6	89.6	28.5	4-11
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	111.7	111.9	112.7	112.1	25	13-2
Pittsburgh	98.9	99.4	99.7	99.3	19	8-7
Cleveland	97.8	97.9	97.8	97.8	24	6-9
Cincinnati	92.7	92.4	92.5	92.5	23.5	1-14
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Houston	102.2	102.7	102.7	102.6	23.5	10-5
Tennessee	101.8	102.0	102.0	101.9	21.5	8-7
Indianapolis	100.1	100.9	100.3	100.4	23	7-8
Jacksonville	91.3	91.4	91.3	91.3	18	5-10
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	107.0	107.7	107.7	107.5	29.5	11-4
LA Chargers	100.4	100.0	99.3	99.9	22	5-10
Denver	99.0	99.3	99.1	99.1	19	6-9
Oakland	92.8	92.7	92.8	92.8	25.5	7-8
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	104.2	104.3	103.9	104.1	22	7-8
Philadelphia	101.9	100.7	100.5	101.0	23.5	8-7
N.Y. Giants	93.7	94.0	94.4	94.0	25.5	4-11
Washington	91.3	91.9	91.4	91.5	19.5	3-12
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	106.8	105.7	105.8	106.1	21.5	10-5
Green Bay	103.8	103.8	104.2	103.9	24	12-3
Chicago	101.1	98.9	98.8	99.6	17	7-8
Detroit	95.0	93.6	93.5	94.1	23.5	3-11-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	108.7	107.2	107.7	107.9	27	12-3
Tampa Bay	101.1	102.3	102.6	102.0	29.5	7-8
Atlanta	100.6	100.8	100.7	100.7	26	6-9
Carolina	93.0	92.8	93.0	92.9	26	5-10
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
San Francisco	107.2	107.9	108.1	107.7	26	12-3
LA Rams	104.5	103.6	104.0	104.0	26.5	8-7
Seattle	101.2	101.0	101.2	101.1	23.5	11-4
Arizona	96.1	96.3	96.9	96.4	24.5	5-9-1

 

 

 

Week 17 Playoff Scenarios

 

NFC

If San Francisco, New Orleans, and Green Bay all win, San Francisco is  the #1 seed, Green Bay the #2 seed, and New Orleans the #3 seed.

If Seattle beats San Francisco, then Green Bay will get #1 seed with win over Detroit.

If Seattle beats San Francisco, and Detroit beats Green Bay, then New Orleans gets #1 seed with a win over Carolina.

If Seatlle beats San Francisco, and Green Bay and New Orleans lose, Seattle gets the #1 seed.

Philadelphia wins the NFC East with a win over the Giants or a Dallas loss to Washington. Any ties in the standings would go to Dallas.

Minnesota is #6 seed regardless of week 17 results.

 

AFC

Houston has clinched the #1 seed in the AFC

New England clinches the #2 seed with a win over Miami or a Kansas City loss to the Chargers.

Houston can pass Kansas City for the #3 seed with a win over Tennessee and a loss by Kansas City.

Buffalo is the #5 seed regardless of week 17 results.

Tennessee wins the #6 seed if they beat Houston, or with a loss with Pittsburgh losing to Baltimore while both Oakland and Indianapolis do not win.

Pittsburgh wins the #6 seed only if they win and the Titans lose.

Oakland can clinch the #6 seed with a win over Denver, plus losses by Tennessee and Pittsburgh and Indianapolis beating Jacksonville.

 

PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

 

What are the chances that the Oakland Raiders, in their last season playing in Oakland, could sneak into the NFL Playoffs?  It ranges from + or – 10-15% depending on which advanced metric expert you listen to.  We’re sabermetric experts that do not perform these type of metrics on pro football.

The way we look at things, Baltimore has nothing to gain this week against Pittsburgh in their season finale.  Their key players should play little or not at all.  Can the Steelers with poor quarterback play rise up and beat the Ravens’ reserves if they couldn’t beat the Jets last week?

Tennessee has now dropped two games in a row to playoff teams in Houston and New Orleans, both at home.  Houston may have a chance to move up to a #3 seed if Kansas City is upset earlier in the day.  

Oakland closes out regular season play at Denver, where the Broncos have nothing to play for in Week 17.

Indianapolis is playing solely to get to 8-8, while Jacksonville has nothing to play for in Week 17.

We think Oakland’s chances to sneak in as the final playoff team is considerably better than 15%.  In fact, just because it would make such a great story, we are going to select the Raiders as our 6th seed to set up a probably Oakland finale against their most hated rivals.

 

AFC Seeding
1	Baltimore
2	New England
3	Kansas City
4	Houston
5	Buffalo
6	Oakland
NFC Seeding
1	Green Bay
2	New Orleans
3	Seattle
4	Philadelphia
5	San Francisco
6	Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round

Kansas City over Oakland

Buffalo over Houston

Minnesota over Seattle

San Francisco over Philadelphia

Divisional Round

Buffalo over Baltimore

Kansas City over New England

Green Bay over Minnesota

New Orleans over San Francisco

Conference Championship

Kansas City over Buffalo

New Orleans over Green Bay

Super Bowl 54

New Orleans over Kansas City

 

 

PiRate College Football Ratings: Final Regular Season

PiRate Ratings Spreads For 2019-2020 Bowls & Playoffs

Including TV & Start Times 

All Times Given Are Eastern Standard Time

 

Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Dec. 20	Bahamas	ESPN	2:00 PM
Buffalo	Charlotte	6.9	7.1	7.6
Dec. 20	Frisco	ESPN2	7:30 PM
Utah St.	Kent St.	7.8	7.4	7.3
Dec. 21	New Mexico	ESPN	2:00 PM
San Diego St.	Central Michigan	5.3	6.1	4.1
Dec. 21	Cure	CBSSN	2:30 PM
Georgia Southern	Liberty	9.5	8.3	8.9
Dec. 21	Boca Raton	ABC	3:30 PM
SMU	Florida Atlantic	3.5	3.2	2.8
Dec.21	Camellia	ESPN	5:30 PM
Arkansas St.	Florida Int’l.	0.9	1.4	0.4
Dec. 21	Las Vegas	ABC	7:30 PM
Washington	Boise St.	5.0	4.3	5.6
Dec. 21	New Orleans	ESPN	9:00 PM
Appalachian St.	UAB	23.1	20.9	21.7
Dec. 23	Gasparilla	ESPN	2:30 PM
Central Florida	Marshall	19.6	19.4	19.6
Dec. 24	Hawaii	ESPN	8:00 PM
BYU	Hawaii	1.3	0.2	1.6
Dec. 26	Independence	ESPN	4:00 PM
Miami (Fla.)	Louisiana Tech	10.6	9.9	11.4
Dec. 26	Quick Lane	ESPN	8:00 PM
Pittsburgh	Eastern Michigan	13.1	12.3	12.6
Dec. 27	Military	ESPN	12:00 PM
North Carolina	Temple	8.3	8.3	7.9
Dec. 27	Pinstripe	ESPN	3:20 PM
Michigan St.	Wake Forest	4.6	4.4	3.4
Dec. 27	Texas	ESPN	6:45 PM
Texas A&M	Oklahoma St.	6.3	3.2	5.1
Dec. 27	Holiday	FS1	8:00 PM
Iowa	USC	7.4	5.3	6.2
Dec. 27	Cheez-It	ESPN	10:15 PM
Washington St.	Air Force	5.4	2.8	4.4
Dec. 28	Camping World	ABC	12:00 PM
Notre Dame	Iowa St.	7.9	6.7	8.3
Dec. 28	Cotton	ESPN	12:00 PM
Penn St.	Memphis	11.3	10.1	10.3
Dec. 28	Peach	ESPN	4:00 PM
LSU	Oklahoma	14.5	13.0	15.1
Dec. 28	Fiesta	ESPN	8:00 PM
Ohio St.	Clemson	1.6	2.3	1.0
Dec. 30	First Responder	ESPN	12:30 PM
Western Michigan	Western Kentucky	2.3	0.7	0.6
Dec. 30	Music City	ESPN	4:00 PM
Mississippi St.	Louisville	9.6	6.8	13.4
Dec. 30	Redbox	Fox	4:00 PM
California	Illinois	4.0	3.2	4.9
Dec. 30	Orange	ESPN	8:00 PM
Florida	Virginia	21.1	18.8	20.7
Dec. 31	Belk	ESPN	12:00 PM
Kentucky	Virginia Tech	1.9	0.8	0.4
Dec. 31	Sun	CBS	2:00 PM
Arizona St.	Florida St.	3.1	2.7	3.2
Dec. 31	Liberty	ESPN	3:45 PM
Kansas St.	Navy	10.8	8.4	9.3
Dec. 31	Arizona	CBSSN	4:30 PM
Wyoming	Georgia St.	9.3	10.2	10.5
Dec. 31	Alamo	ESPN	7:30 PM
Utah	Texas	10.2	9.0	10.9
Jan. 1	Citrus	ABC	1:00 PM
Alabama	Michigan	3.2	1.4	3.2
Jan. 1	Outback	ESPN	1:00 PM
Auburn	Minnesota	5.7	4.3	6.2
Jan. 1	Rose	ESPN	5:00 PM
Wisconsin	Oregon	0.7	0.7	0.3
Jan. 1	Sugar	ESPN	8:45 PM
Georgia	Baylor	8.8	7.0	9.7
Jan. 2	Birmingham	ESPN	3:00 PM
Cincinnati	Boston College	4.0	4.1	4.1
Jan. 2	Gator	ESPN	7:00 PM
Tennessee	Indiana	0.8	1.5	0.6
Jan. 3	Potato	ESPN	3:30 PM
Ohio U	Nevada	8.6	6.3	9.8
Jan. 4	Armed Forces	ESPN	11:30 AM
Tulane	Southern Miss.	5.9	9.6	6.1
Jan. 6	Lending Tree	ESPN	7:30 PM
Louisiana	Miami (O)	12.6	13.8	12.0
Jan. 13	Championship	ESPN	8:00 PM
Fiesta Bowl	Peach Bowl