PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 9: October 31-November 4, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Margins

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Arizona	San Francisco	-9.7	-10.9	-11.1
Jacksonville (n)	Houston	-4.1	-3.9	-3.0
Buffalo	Washington	9.8	9.6	9.5
Carolina	Tennessee	5.5	5.3	6.3
Philadelphia	Chicago	4.3	5.7	5.2
Kansas City	Minnesota	-4.2	-2.2	-3.1
Miami	N.Y. Jets	-3.6	-4.1	-3.2
Pittsburgh	Indianapolis	1.5	1.1	1.8
Oakland	Detroit	0.4	1.6	1.3
Seattle	Tampa Bay	9.6	7.2	6.9
Denver	Cleveland	2.1	1.8	1.5
LA Chargers	Green Bay	-2.8	-3.1	-4.2
Baltimore	New England	-6.0	-7.6	-6.2
N.Y. Giants	Dallas	-7.3	-7.3	-6.2

 

Totals

Home	Visitor	Total
Arizona	San Francisco	47
Jacksonville (n)	Houston	42.5
Buffalo	Washington	35
Carolina	Tennessee	41
Philadelphia	Chicago	44.5
Kansas City	Minnesota	52.5
Miami	N.Y. Jets	46.5
Pittsburgh	Indianapolis	43.5
Oakland	Detroit	49
Seattle	Tampa Bay	54.5
Denver	Cleveland	41.5
LA Chargers	Green Bay	48
Baltimore	New England	44
N.Y. Giants	Dallas	45.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	111.0	112.2	111.8	111.7	21	8-0
Buffalo	98.2	99.1	98.5	98.6	17.5	5-2
N. Y. Jets	92.3	93.2	91.9	92.5	20.5	1-6
Miami	86.8	87.0	86.6	86.8	26	0-7
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	102.0	101.6	102.6	102.1	23	5-2
Cleveland	99.8	100.1	100.2	100.0	23.5	2-5
Pittsburgh	98.6	99.1	99.4	99.0	21.5	3-4
Cincinnati	93.6	93.3	93.6	93.5	23.5	0-8
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Houston	103.4	103.6	103.2	103.4	23.5	5-3
Indianapolis	100.1	101.0	100.6	100.6	22	5-2
Jacksonville	99.3	99.8	100.2	99.8	19	4-4
Tennessee	98.0	98.4	98.0	98.1	16	4-4
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	99.9	100.3	99.7	100.0	30.5	5-3
LA Chargers	100.0	99.8	99.1	99.6	22	3-5
Denver	98.9	99.0	98.7	98.9	18	2-6
Oakland	96.8	96.9	97.4	97.0	24.5	3-4
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	104.4	105.0	104.4	104.6	20.5	4-3
Philadelphia	105.1	103.4	103.1	103.8	25.5	4-4
N.Y. Giants	94.2	94.6	95.2	94.7	25	2-6
Washington	91.5	92.4	92.0	92.0	17.5	1-7
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	107.1	105.5	105.8	106.2	22	6-2
Green Bay	104.8	104.9	105.3	105.0	26	7-1
Chicago	103.8	100.7	100.8	101.8	19	3-4
Detroit	99.4	98.3	99.0	98.9	24.5	3-3-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	109.1	106.5	107.0	107.5	24.5	7-1
Carolina	100.5	100.7	101.3	100.8	25	4-3
Tampa Bay	96.0	98.2	98.6	97.6	29	2-5
Atlanta	94.7	94.9	94.1	94.5	26.5	1-7
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
San Francisco	106.8	108.1	108.7	107.9	24	7-0
LA Rams	107.2	105.8	106.1	106.4	27	5-3
Seattle	102.6	102.4	102.5	102.5	25.5	7-1
Arizona	94.1	94.1	94.6	94.3	23	3-4-1

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1	New England
2	Indianapolis
3	Baltimore
4	Kansas City
5	Houston
6	Jacksonville
NFC Seeding
1	New Orleans
2	San Francisco
3	Green Bay
4	Dallas
5	Minnesota
6	LA Rams

 

Wildcard Round

Jacksonville over Baltimore

Houston over Kansas City

Green Bay over LA Rams

Minnesota over Dallas

Divisional Round

New England over Jacksonville

Indianapolis over Houston

New Orleans over Minnesota

San Francisco over Green Bay

Conference Championship

New England over Indianapolis

New Orleans over San Francisco

Super Bowl 54

New England over New Orleans

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 7: October 17-21, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Denver	Kansas City	-0.8	-0.9	-0.4
N.Y. Giants	Arizona	4.0	4.2	4.3
Indianapolis	Houston	-2.3	-1.7	-2.1
Buffalo	Miami	16.6	18.0	18.1
Detroit	Minnesota	-4.1	-3.1	-2.4
Green Bay	Oakland	9.7	9.5	9.2
Cincinnati	Jacksonville	-1.2	-1.8	-1.4
Atlanta	LA Rams	-5.8	-3.6	-3.7
Washington	San Francisco	-10.2	-10.5	-11.5
Tennessee	LA Chargers	1.4	1.5	2.2
Seattle	Baltimore	5.5	5.8	5.0
Chicago	New Orleans	2.3	2.0	2.1
Dallas	Philadelphia	-0.1	2.7	2.3
N.Y. Jets	New England	-13.0	-13.0	-13.7

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	109.3	110.4	109.9	109.9	21.5	6-0
Buffalo	99.8	101.2	100.8	100.6	18	4-1
N. Y. Jets	93.8	94.9	93.7	94.1	21.5	1-4
Miami	86.2	86.2	85.7	86.0	26	0-5
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	100.7	100.2	101.1	100.7	23	4-2
Cleveland	99.5	99.8	99.9	99.7	23.5	2-4
Pittsburgh	98.5	99.0	99.3	98.9	21.5	2-4
Cincinnati	94.4	94.2	94.8	94.5	24	0-6
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Houston	104.5	104.8	104.6	104.7	23	4-2
Indianapolis	99.2	100.1	99.5	99.6	22	3-2
Jacksonville	98.1	98.5	98.7	98.4	19	2-4
Tennessee	97.9	98.2	97.9	98.0	15	2-4
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	104.2	104.6	103.9	104.2	31	4-2
Denver	100.5	100.7	100.5	100.6	19.5	2-4
LA Chargers	99.5	99.7	98.7	99.3	21.5	2-4
Oakland	97.1	97.2	97.8	97.4	23.5	3-2
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Philadelphia	105.3	103.2	102.9	103.8	25.5	3-3
Dallas	102.2	102.9	102.2	102.4	20.5	3-3
N.Y. Giants	94.7	95.2	95.8	95.2	24.5	2-4
Washington	91.1	92.1	91.5	91.6	19	1-5
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	106.6	104.7	105.0	105.5	21.5	4-2
Green Bay	103.8	103.7	104.0	103.8	25	5-1
Chicago	105.9	102.5	102.9	103.8	19	3-2
Detroit	100.0	99.1	100.1	99.8	23	2-2-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	106.6	103.5	103.8	104.6	23.5	5-1
Carolina	102.0	102.2	103.0	102.4	24.5	4-2
Tampa Bay	95.6	97.9	98.3	97.3	28.5	2-4
Atlanta	96.5	97.0	96.4	96.6	27.5	1-5
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
San Francisco	104.3	105.6	106.0	105.3	23.5	5-0
LA Rams	105.3	103.6	103.7	104.2	28	3-3
Seattle	103.2	103.0	103.1	103.1	25.5	5-1
Arizona	93.7	94.0	94.5	94.1	23.5	2-3-1

 

Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1	New England
2	Houston
3	Kansas City
4	Baltimore
5	Buffalo
6	Indianapolis
NFC Seeding
1	San Francisco
2	New Orleans
3	Green Bay
4	Philadelphia
5	Seattle
6	Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round

Kansas City over Indianapolis

Buffalo over Baltimore

Green Bay over Minnesota

Seattle over Philadelphia

Divisional Round

New England over Buffalo

Houston over Kansas City

San Francisco over Seattle

New Orleans over Green Bay

Conference Championship

New England over Houston

San Francisco over New Orleans

Super Bowl 54

San Francisco over New England

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 6: October 10-14, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
New England	N. Y. Giants	17.1	17.6	16.1
Tampa Bay	Carolina	-3.1	-0.4	-0.6
Baltimore	Cincinnati	9.9	9.7	10.2
Cleveland	Seattle	-0.5	0.0	0.0
Kansas City	Houston	4.2	4.5	4.2
Jacksonville	New Orleans	-6.0	-2.1	-2.0
Minnesota	Philadelphia	2.1	2.1	2.6
Miami	Washington	-3.1	-4.5	-4.5
LA Rams	San Francisco	7.4	4.0	3.9
Arizona	Atlanta	0.2	0.0	1.2
N. Y. Jets	Dallas	-6.4	-6.2	-7.1
Denver	Tennessee	3.2	3.0	2.9
LA Chargers	Pittsburgh	5.7	5.7	4.4
Green Bay	Detroit	5.9	7.2	6.3

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

Home	Visitor	Total
New England	N. Y. Giants	46
Tampa Bay	Carolina	52
Baltimore	Cincinnati	47.5
Cleveland	Seattle	48
Kansas City	Houston	54
Jacksonville	New Orleans	44
Minnesota	Philadelphia	45
Miami	Washington	46.5
LA Rams	San Francisco	53
Arizona	Atlanta	48
N. Y. Jets	Dallas	42
Denver	Tennessee	36.5
LA Chargers	Pittsburgh	43
Green Bay	Detroit	48

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	109.0	110.1	109.4	109.5	21.5	5-0
Buffalo	99.5	100.9	100.5	100.3	18	4-1
N. Y. Jets	93.3	94.3	92.9	93.5	21.5	0-4
Miami	86.1	85.9	85.3	85.8	26.5	0-4
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	101.1	100.7	101.7	101.2	23	3-2
Cleveland	99.6	99.9	100.0	99.8	23	2-3
Pittsburgh	97.6	98.0	98.3	97.9	21.5	1-4
Cincinnati	94.3	94.0	94.5	94.3	24.5	0-5
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Houston	103.9	104.1	103.8	104.0	23	3-2
Tennessee	99.3	99.7	99.5	99.5	16.5	2-3
Indianapolis	98.9	99.8	99.2	99.3	22	3-2
Jacksonville	98.1	98.7	99.0	98.6	20	2-3
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	105.1	105.6	105.0	105.2	31	4-1
LA Chargers	100.9	101.2	100.2	100.7	21.5	2-3
Denver	99.6	99.7	99.4	99.6	20	1-4
Oakland	96.8	96.9	97.5	97.1	23.5	3-2
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Philadelphia	106.1	104.1	103.9	104.7	24.5	3-2
Dallas	102.7	103.5	103.0	103.1	20.5	3-2
N.Y. Giants	95.0	95.5	96.3	95.6	24.5	2-3
Washington	91.7	92.9	92.4	92.3	20	0-5
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	105.2	103.2	103.4	104.0	20.5	3-2
Green Bay	103.5	103.6	103.8	103.6	25	4-1
Chicago	105.6	102.2	102.6	103.5	19	3-2
Detroit	100.0	98.9	100.0	99.7	23	2-1-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	106.6	103.3	103.5	104.5	24	4-1
Carolina	101.6	101.5	102.2	101.8	24	3-2
Tampa Bay	96.0	98.6	99.1	97.9	28	2-3
Atlanta	96.5	97.0	96.4	96.6	26	1-4
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	107.0	105.1	105.3	105.8	29	3-2
San Francisco	102.6	104.1	104.4	103.7	24	4-0
Seattle	103.1	102.9	103.0	103.0	25	4-1
Arizona	93.7	94.0	94.5	94.1	22	1-3-1

 

Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1	New England
2	Kansas City
3	Houston
4	Baltimore
5	Indianapolis
6	Buffalo

NFC Seeding
1	San Francisco
2	New Orleans
3	Green Bay
4	Philadelphia
5	Seattle
6	Minnesota

Wildcard Round

Buffalo over Houston

Indianapolis over Baltimore

Green Bay over Minnesota

Philadelphia over Seattle

Divisional Round

New England over Buffalo

Kansas City over Indianapolis

Philadelphia over San Francisco

New Orleans over Green Bay

Conference Championship

New England over Kansas City

New Orleans over Philadelphia

Super Bowl 54

New England over New Orleans

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 5: October 3-7, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

 

Margins

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Seattle	LA Rams	-1.1	0.8	0.7
Pittsburgh	Baltimore	-1.0	-0.3	-0.9
Oakland (n)	Chicago	-10.6	-7.1	-6.8
Cincinnati	Arizona	5.3	4.7	4.9
Carolina	Jacksonville	6.5	5.7	6.2
N.Y. Giants	Minnesota	-5.1	-2.0	-1.0
Washington	New England	-12.7	-12.3	-11.9
Philadelphia	N.Y. Jets	12.2	8.7	9.9
New Orleans	Tampa Bay	14.2	7.7	7.4
Houston	Atlanta	7.5	6.7	6.8
Tennessee	Buffalo	5.5	4.6	5.1
LA Chargers	Denver	6.6	7.0	6.5
Dallas	Green Bay	5.2	6.0	5.5
Kansas City	Indianapolis	12.5	12.3	12.5
San Francisco	Cleveland	1.5	2.6	2.7

 

Totals

Home	Visitor	Total
Seattle	LA Rams	53
Pittsburgh	Baltimore	44.5
Oakland (n)	Chicago	42.5
Cincinnati	Arizona	46.5
Carolina	Jacksonville	42
N.Y. Giants	Minnesota	45.5
Washington	New England	41.5
Philadelphia	N.Y. Jets	47
New Orleans	Tampa Bay	52
Houston	Atlanta	46
Tennessee	Buffalo	36
LA Chargers	Denver	42.5
Dallas	Green Bay	44.5
Kansas City	Indianapolis	54.5
San Francisco	Cleveland	48

 

(n)–Oakland vs. Chicago game played in London

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	108.1	109.1	108.3	108.5	21.5	4-0
Buffalo	97.9	99.3	98.7	98.6	18.5	3-1
N. Y. Jets	94.7	96.0	94.6	95.1	22.5	0-3
Miami	85.8	85.6	85.0	85.5	26.5	0-4
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Cleveland	101.7	102.0	102.2	102.0	23.5	2-2
Baltimore	101.1	100.7	101.7	101.2	23	2-2
Pittsburgh	97.6	98.0	98.3	97.9	21.5	1-3
Cincinnati	95.4	95.1	95.7	95.4	24.5	0-4
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Houston	102.7	102.7	102.3	102.6	21.5	2-2
Tennessee	100.4	100.8	100.8	100.7	17.5	2-2
Jacksonville	98.1	98.8	99.0	98.6	19	2-2
Indianapolis	97.1	97.9	97.2	97.4	23	2-2
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	106.6	107.2	106.7	106.8	31.5	4-0
LA Chargers	102.5	102.9	102.0	102.4	22	2-2
Denver	98.4	98.4	98.0	98.3	20.5	0-4
Oakland	95.7	95.9	96.5	96.0	23.5	2-2
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	103.9	104.8	104.4	104.4	20	3-1
Philadelphia	105.0	102.7	102.5	103.4	24.5	2-2
N.Y. Giants	96.2	97.0	98.0	97.1	24.5	2-2
Washington	93.0	94.3	93.9	93.7	20	0-4
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Chicago	106.4	102.9	103.3	104.2	19	3-1
Minnesota	104.3	102.0	102.0	102.8	21	2-2
Green Bay	101.8	101.8	101.9	101.8	24.5	3-1
Detroit	99.7	98.6	99.7	99.4	23	2-1-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	106.9	103.3	103.5	104.6	24	3-1
Carolina	101.6	101.4	102.2	101.7	23	2-2
Atlanta	98.3	99.0	98.5	98.6	24.5	1-3
Tampa Bay	95.7	98.6	99.1	97.8	28	2-2
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	107.1	105.1	105.3	105.8	28.5	3-1
Seattle	103.0	102.9	103.0	103.0	24.5	3-1
San Francisco	100.2	101.7	101.9	101.3	24.5	3-0
Arizona	93.1	93.4	93.8	93.4	22	0-3-1

 

Playoff Projections

 

AFC Seeding
1	New England
2	Kansas City
3	Cleveland
4	Jacksonville
5	Buffalo
6	LA Chargers
NFC Seeding
1	Seattle
2	New Orleans
3	Chicago
4	Philadelphia
5	LA Rams
6	Green Bay

 

Wildcard Round

LA Chargers over Cleveland

Buffalo over Jacksonville

Chicago over Green Bay

LA Rams over Philadelphia

Divisional Round

New England over LA Chargers

Kansas City over Buffalo

LA Rams over Seattle

Chicago over New Orleans

Conference Championship

Kansas City over New England

Chicago over LA Rams

Super Bowl 53

Kansas City over Chicago

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 4: September 26-30, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

 

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Total
Green Bay	Philadelphia	0.7	3.6	4.1	47
Houston	Carolina	5.5	5.9	4.7	45.5
Baltimore	Cleveland	4.6	3.8	5.0	45
N.Y. Giants	Washington	2.4	1.9	2.9	46.5
Miami	LA Chargers	-13.0	-13.4	-12.8	49.5
Indianapolis	Oakland	6.1	6.9	5.8	45
Detroit	Kansas City	-4.2	-6.3	-4.6	52.5
Buffalo	New England	-8.2	-8.0	-8.0	41
Atlanta	Tennessee	3.9	4.7	4.2	44
LA Rams	Tampa Bay	18.3	13.0	12.9	53.5
Arizona	Seattle	-5.1	-4.4	-3.8	48
Chicago	Minnesota	4.4	2.8	3.0	42
Denver	Jacksonville	4.3	3.6	3.0	38
New Orleans	Dallas	5.9	1.0	1.6	45.5
Pittsburgh	Cincinnati	1.5	1.9	1.5	47.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	108.5	109.6	108.9	109.0	22	3-0
Buffalo	97.8	99.1	98.4	98.4	19	3-0
N. Y. Jets	94.4	95.7	94.3	94.8	22.5	0-3
Miami	86.3	86.2	85.7	86.1	27	0-3
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	102.3	101.9	103.1	102.5	22.5	2-1
Cleveland	100.8	101.1	101.1	101.0	22.5	1-2
Cincinnati	97.0	96.8	97.5	97.1	25.5	0-3
Pittsburgh	96.0	96.3	96.5	96.2	22	0-3
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Houston	103.4	103.5	103.1	103.4	22	2-1
Tennessee	99.0	99.2	99.2	99.1	18	1-2
Indianapolis	98.1	99.0	98.4	98.5	22.5	2-1
Jacksonville	97.6	98.3	98.5	98.1	18	1-2
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	106.6	107.4	106.9	107.0	31	3-0
LA Chargers	102.3	102.6	101.6	102.1	22.5	1-2
Denver	98.9	98.9	98.5	98.8	20	0-3
Oakland	95.0	95.1	95.6	95.2	22.5	1-2
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	103.7	104.8	104.4	104.3	20.5	3-0
Philadelphia	104.4	101.8	101.5	102.5	23.5	1-2
Washington	94.7	96.0	95.8	95.5	21.5	0-3
N.Y. Giants	94.6	95.4	96.2	95.4	25	1-2
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Chicago	106.2	102.5	102.8	103.8	20.5	2-1
Minnesota	104.8	102.7	102.8	103.5	21.5	2-1
Green Bay	102.1	102.4	102.6	102.4	23.5	3-0
Detroit	99.4	98.1	99.2	98.9	21.5	2-0-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	107.1	103.3	103.5	104.6	25	2-1
Carolina	100.9	100.6	101.4	101.0	23.5	1-2
Atlanta	100.0	100.9	100.4	100.4	26	1-2
Tampa Bay	93.4	96.5	96.9	95.6	27	1-2
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	108.7	106.5	106.8	107.3	26.5	3-0
Seattle	102.1	101.9	101.8	101.9	25	2-1
San Francisco	99.9	101.4	101.6	101.0	24.5	3-0
Arizona	94.0	94.4	95.0	94.5	23	0-2-1

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

 

AFC Seeding
1	New England
2	Kansas City
3	Baltimore
4	Indianapolis
5	Buffalo
6	Houston

 

NFC Seeding
1	LA Rams
2	Dallas
3	Green Bay
4	New Orleans
5	Minnesota
6	San Francisco

 

Wildcard Round

Houston over Baltimore

Indianapolis over Buffalo

Green Bay over San Francisco

New Orleans over Minnesota

Divisional Round

New England over Houston

Kansas City over Indianapolis

LA Rams over New Orleans

Green Bay over Dallas

Conference Championship

New England over Kansas City

LA Rams over Green Bay

Super Bowl 53

New England over LA Rams

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–October 13-17, 2016

Replayicide

A third consecutive winning week was practically in the bag thanks to a great Sunday comeback. Yes, a terrific 84.7% return on our investment was ours, as Joe Flacco guided the Baltimore Ravens on a fourth quarter comeback to defeat the Washington Redskins, allowing the PiRates to cash in on a really nice +199 parlay.

As Lee Corso says, “Not so fast my friends.” All scoring plays are reviewed. Breshad Perriman appeared to have both feet inbounds in real time with his heel of his second foot hitting green turf, but the instant replay told a different story, and by the distance of a few blades of grass, a big payoff turned into a 15% loss on our investment. Oh well, at least they are imaginary dollars, so we didn’t really lose anything but a little self-pride.

One good thing about doing this exercise just for fun is that you don’t become gun shy when you miss on a big payoff like this, and you don’t have to worry about trying to catch up after a loss or sustain any success; you just select the next week’s games as if the new week is in a vacuum.
We have chosen four new selections this week, three from college and one NFL. This is a strange season for the NFL, so we are lessening our amount of pro plays.

Enjoy these selections, but remember, we highly encourage you not to use them to wager real coin, currency, or plastic on them.

October 13-17, 2016

1. College Parlay @ +157
Idaho over New Mexico St.
Marshall over Florida Atlantic
Florida over Missouri
Georgia over Vanderbilt

We like the job Paul Petrino has done at Idaho and expect the Vandals to win in the Palouse this week; considering that this program has announced that they will leave FBS football to return to FCS and the Big Sky Conference in 2018, Petrino could be on the radar screen of other FBS schools should Idaho make it to 6-6 or better this year. Maybe, this year is their last-gasp effort to sneak into a bowl for the first and possibly last time since 2009 and only the third time ever. Here’s a bit of trivia for you: Idaho was once a member of what is the Pac-12 Conference today. From1922 to 1959, the Vandals were in the same league as USC, UCLA, Cal, Oregon, and Stanford. The Idaho-Washington St. rivalry remains strong since the two schools are within walking distance of each other.

Marshall is off to its weakest start in the Doc Holliday tenure, but the Herd should begin to thunder this week against FAU. The Owls lost at Charlotte last week, and Coach Charlie Partridge will be doing his cooing from another pear tree next year.

Florida and Missouri both had last Saturday off, with the Gators’ bye week coming unexpectedly. The good news for Florida was that by watching the most recent game film of the team they were supposed to play last week (LSU), they just happened to watch this week’s opponent. We think the Gators win a rather dull, low-scoring affair in the 14-10 range.

Georgia has not looked brilliant for 60 minutes in any game this year, but even playing 20 minutes brilliantly this week should be enough to win over a Vanderbilt team that is “0 for” on the road in the SEC under Coach Derek Mason and has no passing game.

2. College Parlay @ +192
Arkansas St. over South Alabama
Ohio St. over Wisconsin
Ball St. over Buffalo
Memphis over Tulane

Arkansas State might replicate what Texas A&M did in 1967. The Red Wolves began the season 0-4 and could run the table after that start. South Alabama is a team that gets up for big-time opponents and seems to not show up against opponents not considered big-time.

Wisconsin’s incredibly difficult schedule is about to come down hard in Badgerland. After losing at Michigan, we expect Ohio State to make the home team fans a bit sad as they exit Camp Randall Stadium Saturday. There is an issue of team speed in this game, and UW will eventually succumb to it.

Ball State is on the cusp of being a rather decent team in MAC football, but they are not there yet. However, this Buffalo team is at the bottom of the league, and they lost at home to Kent State last week. The Cardinals look to pick up their biggest point differential win of the season.

Memphis will have a tough time in New Orleans on Saturday, as Tulane is one of those pesky teams that opponents do not enjoy playing. First-year Green Wave coach Willie Fritz is known for his unique style of multiple option running and play-action passing plays, and his offense is eating up the clock with a true freshman quarterback guiding it, but it is the TU defense that is really getting the job done. It just goes to show that the best defense in football is a good time-consuming offense. Still, it is asking a bit too much to expect a green Green Wave squad to upset a team that thinks they can now win the West Division of the AAC.

3. College Parlay @ +172
Florida Int’l. over Charlotte
Ohio U over Eastern Michigan
BYU over Mississippi St.

Ron Turner has been in this boat before. When he coached at Illinois, Turner endured some lean seasons with just two wins, before surprising the nation with a trip to the Rose Bowl and upset of top-ranked Ohio State. Turner has slowly improved FIU from one to four to five wins in his three years in Miami, and the Panthers now could contend for a minor bowl. In order to do so, they have to beat a Charlotte team that just gained a little confidence with their first ever CUSA win last week. We expect FIU to win by at least 10-14 points.

Frank Solich has the Ohio Bobcats in the driver’s seat to win the MAC East this year, as his chief competition, Akron, has a tougher conference schedule, and the season finale between the two is in Athens. The Bobcats respect this EMU team, because this Eagles’ team is 4-2 and thinks it is going to win two more games this year. It was a tough choice, but we sided with OU in this game.

Mississippi State appears to be the 13th best team in the SEC this year, and the Bulldogs already have a home out-of-conference loss to South Alabama. Having to travel to Utah to face a BYU team that is about two touchdowns better today than they were at the start of the season means another loss for the SEC school.

4. NFL Parlay @ +220
New England over Cincinnati
Buffalo over San Francisco
Oakland over Kansas City

Do you expect Tom Brady to lose to anybody in his home debut? We’d go with the Pats to beat the NFC Pro Bowl team this week. Cincinnati could be out of the playoff race after this week, and Marvin Lewis could be in jeopardy of losing his job if the Bengals fall to third in the AFC North.

San Francisco must travel almost 3,000 to the Ontario border to face a mean Buffalo team that has turned things around since their Monday Night debacle against the Jets. Colin Kaepernick will get his first start, and we would not be surprised if subconsciously, the officials see an extra penalty here or there that costs the 49ers a crucial first down. Rex Ryan can sniff playoffs with this Bills’ team. It’s been a very long dry spell for Buffalo, even longer than the Raiders’ dry spell, and a win Sunday puts Buffalo at 4-2.

If you haven’t read our NFL preview from Tuesday, you should read what we had to write about the Oakland – Kansas City rivalry.

Link: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2016/10/11/nfl-ratings-and-spreads-for-week-5-october-13-17-2016/

This game promises to be one of the best between these two franchises since the old Daryle Lamonica vs. Len Dawson days. The game even shapes up to play like it was from 1968–Oakland has the wide-open high-octane offense and some big play defensive stars, while Kansas City has the better ball-control offense to go with a top-flight defense. All that will be missing is the odd characters like Ben Davidson, Buck Buchanan, Fred Williamson, and Fred Biletnikoff, who wore shoulder pads about as thick as tissue paper and used enough Stickem that he could catch a pass without using his fingers.

PiRate Ratings NFL Conference Champion Game Previews–January 19, 2014

NFL Conference Championship Playoff TV Schedule

Day	Time (ET)	Game	TV	Radio
Sunday, January 19	3:00 PM	New England @ Denver	CBS	Westwood 1
Sunday, January 19	6:30 PM	San Francisco @ Seattle	Fox	Westwood 1
To find a local Westwood 1 radio affiliate, check this link:
http://westwoodonesports.com/stations/

Weather Forecasts For Kickoff and Next 3-4 hours

Seattle—Mostly cloudy with virtually no wind.  Temperatures falling from the upper to the lower 40’s during the game.

 

 

Denver—Incredibly beautiful, Spring-like afternoon.  Temperatures starting in the upper 50’s with plentiful sunshine.  Light winds, and temperatures will fall to around 50 by the end of the game.

 

 

PiRate Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Seattle	San Francisco	1.9	1.9	1.9
Denver	New England	4.8	6.6	5.2

 

Computer Simulations (100x)

San Francisco at Seattle

San Francisco wins: 54

Seattle wins: 46

Average Margin: San Francisco 22.1  Seattle 20.7 

SF Outlier Win: 31-10

Sea Outlier Win: 24-3

 

New England at Denver

NE Wins: 53

Denver Wins: 47

Average Margin: New England 27.9  Denver 27.6

NE Outlier Win: 41-24

Den Outlier Win: 34-16

 

This is potentially the best pair of conference championship games since 2001-02.

PiRate Ratings: NFL Divisional Playoff Round–January 11-12, 2014

Wildcard Playoff TV Schedule

Day	Time (ET)	Game	TV	Radio
Saturday, January 11	4:35 PM	New Orleans @ Seattle	Fox	Westwood 1
Saturday, January 11	8:15 PM	Indianapolis @ New England	CBS	Westwood 1
Sunday, January 12	1:05 PM	San Francisco @ Carolina	Fox	Westwood 1
Sunday, January 12	4:40 PM	San Diego @ Denver	CBS	Westwood 1
To find a local Westwood 1 radio affiliate, check this link:
http://westwoodonesports.com/stations/

Weather Forecasts For Kickoff and Next 3-4 hours

Seattle—100% chance of rain, potentially heavy, and windy with a game time temperature in the mid to upper 40’s and falling slowly through the duration of the game

 

New England—60% chance of rain and gusty winds with temperatures holding steady near 50 throughout the game.

 

Carolina—Partly cloudy with a small rain chance and light winds with temperatures in the mid to upper 50’s during the course of the game.

 

Denver—Partly cloudy with a small rain chance and moderate wind gusts with temperatures at kickoff in the mid-40’s and falling into the 30’s during the game.

 

 

PiRate Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Seattle	New Orleans	7.3	6.9	6.9
New England	Indianapolis	7.0	5.4	6.7
Carolina	San Francisco	-1.5	-2.0	-1.7
Denver	San Diego	7.3	7.4	7.7

 

Computer Simulations (100x)

New Orleans at Seattle

New Orleans wins: 14

Seattle wins: 86

Average Margin: Seattle 32.3  New Orleans 22.6

NO Outlier Win: 36-24

Sea Outlier Win: 44-13

 

Indianapolis at New England

Indianapolis Wins: 33

New England Wins: 67

Average Margin: New England 29.4  Indianapolis 23.1

Ind Outlier Win: 34-19

NE Outlier Win: 31-6

 

San Francisco at Carolina

San Francisco Wins: 64

Carolina Wins: 36

Average Margin: San Francisco 22.8  Carolina 18.6

SF Outlier Win: 30-10

Car Outlier Win: 21-6

 

San Diego at Denver

San Diego Wins: 49

Denver Wins: 51

Average Margin: San Diego 29.8  Denver 29.6

SD Outlier Win: 49-27

Den Outlier Win: 52-31

This one surprised us, but then again San Diego already won at Denver once before this season.

PiRate Ratings: NFL for Week 17–December 29, 2013

The Playoff Races In Full

A F C

 

Denver

Clinches #1 Seed with home field advantage throughout the AFC Playoffs with a win or tie vs. Oakland, or

A New England loss or tie against Buffalo

Falls to #2 Seed if they lose to Oakland and New England beats Buffalo

New England

Clinches #1 Seed with home field advantage throughout the AFC Playoffs with a win over Buffalo and a Denver loss to Oakland

Clinches #2 Seed with a win or tie vs. Buffalo, or a Cincinnati loss or tie to Baltimore and an Indianapolis loss or tie against Jacksonville

Cincinnati

Clinches #2 Seed with a win over Baltimore and a loss by New England to Buffalo

 

Wins Tiebreaker over Indianapolis for #3 Seed (Head-to-Head Win)

 

Indianapolis

Clinches #2 Seed with a win over Jacksonville and a New England loss to Buffalo and a Cincinnati loss or tie to Baltimore

 

Clinches #3 Seed with a win over Jacksonville and a Cincinnati loss or tie to Baltimore, or

 

A tie over Jacksonville and a Cincinnati loss to Baltimore

 

Kansas City

Has already clinched #5 Seed

Miami

Clinches #6 Seed with a win over the NY Jets and Baltimore loss or tie to Cincinnati, or

A win over NY Jets and a San Diego win over Kansas City, or

A tie with NY Jets, and a Baltimore loss to Cincinnati, and a San Diego loss or tie vs. Kansas City, or

A tie with NY Jets, and a Baltimore tie vs. Cincinnati, and a San Diego tie vs. Kansas City

Baltimore

Clinches #6 Seed with a win over Cincinnati and a San Diego loss or tie vs. Kansas City, or

A win over Cincinnati, and a Miami loss or tie vs. NY Jets, or

A tie vs. Cincinnati, and a Miami loss to NY Jets, and a San Diego loss or tie with Kansas City, or

A tie vs. Cincinnati, and a Miami tie with NY Jets, and a San Diego loss to Kansas City, or

A Miami loss to NY Jets, and a San Diego loss to Kansas City, and a Pittsburgh loss or tie with Cleveland

San Diego

Clinches #6 Seed with win over Kansas City, and Miami loss or tie with NY Jets, and Baltimore loss or tie with Cincinnati, or

 

A tie with Kansas City, and a Miami loss to NY Jets, and Baltimore loss to Cincinnati

Pittsburgh

Clinches #6 Seed with win over Cleveland, and Miami loss to NY Jets, and Baltimore loss to Cincinnati, and San Diego loss to Kansas City

N F C

 

Seattle

Clinches #1 Seed with home field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs with a win or tie against St. Louis, or

A San Francisco loss or tie against Arizona

Carolina

Clinches #1 Seed with a win over Atlanta and a Seattle loss to St. Louis, and a San Francisco win over Arizona

Clinches #2 Seed with a win or tie with Atlanta, or

A New Orleans loss or tie with Tampa Bay

Philadelphia

Clinches #3 Seed with win or tie with Dallas

Chicago

Clinches the NFC North Division with a win or tie with Green Bay

Clinches #3 Seed with a win over Green Bay and Dallas winning the NFC East (wins tiebreaker based on head-to-head win)

Clinches #4 Seed if Philadelphia wins the NFC East, (or if Bears tie and Dallas wins)

San Francisco

Clinches #1 Seed with home field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs with a win over Arizona, and a Seattle loss to St. Louis, and a Carolina loss or tie with Atlanta

Clinches #2 Seed with a win over Arizona and a Seattle loss to St. Louis

Clinches #5 Seed with win over Arizona, or

A New Orleans loss to Tampa Bay (New Orleans and Carolina both hold tiebreaker based on head-to-head win)

Clinches #6 Seed if tied with either New Orleans or Carolina or both

New Orleans

Clinches #2 Seed with win over Tampa Bay and Carolina Loss to Atlanta

 

Clinches #5 Seed with win over Tampa Bay, or

A tie with Tampa Bay and an Arizona loss or tie with San Francisco, or

An Arizona loss to San Francisco

 

Clinches #6 Seed with a loss to Tampa Bay and a San Francisco win or tie over Arizona, or

A Tie with Tampa Bay and a San Francisco tie with Arizona (holds tiebreaker over Arizona based on head-to-head win)

Arizona

Clinches #6 Seed with a win over San Francisco and a New Orleans loss or tie with Tampa Bay, or

A Tie with San Francisco, and a New Orleans loss to Tampa Bay

Dallas

Clinches #3 Seed with a win over Philadelphia and a Chicago loss or tie with Green Bay

Clinches #4 Seed with a win over Philadelphia and a Chicago win over Green Bay (loses tiebreaker to Chicago based on head-to-head loss)

Green Bay

Clinches #4 Seed with a win over Chicago

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Philadelphia Eagles	101.8	103.0	102.1
Dallas Cowboys	97.7	97.8	96.9
New York Giants	95.6	95.7	95.3
Washington Redskins	92.2	92.2	91.6
North	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Detroit Lions	100.3	100.3	99.9
Chicago Bears	98.8	98.4	98.3
Green Bay Packers	98.1	97.3	97.4
Minnesota Vikings	95.5	95.2	95.1
South	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New Orleans Saints	105.5	106.1	106.2
Carolina Panthers	105.5	105.8	105.8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	96.9	96.6	96.9
Atlanta Falcons	95.2	94.6	94.4
West	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Francisco 49ers	110.0	110.6	110.4
Seattle Seahawks	109.5	109.9	109.8
Arizona Cardinals	103.9	104.9	104.3
St. Louis Rams	100.7	101.7	101.4
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New England Patriots	107.1	105.5	106.9
Miami Dolphins	100.0	99.2	99.9
Buffalo Bills	97.9	97.6	98.3
New York Jets	92.8	92.0	93.0
North	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Cincinnati Bengals	108.1	108.5	108.4
Baltimore Ravens	100.3	100.0	100.3
Pittsburgh Steelers	99.9	99.9	100.2
Cleveland Browns	94.3	93.7	93.8
South	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Indianapolis Colts	102.9	103.3	103.2
Tennessee Titans	97.4	97.5	97.4
Houston Texans	92.6	91.7	92.4
Jacksonville Jaguars	90.8	90.6	90.8
West	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Denver Broncos	110.0	110.5	110.4
San Diego Chargers	103.6	104.0	103.6
Kansas City Chiefs	103.4	104.1	103.7
Oakland Raiders	91.7	91.8	91.9

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Atlanta	Carolina	-8.3	-9.2	-9.4
Chicago	Green Bay	3.7	4.1	3.9
Cincinnati	Baltimore	10.8	11.5	11.1
Dallas	Philadelphia	-1.1	-2.2	-2.2
Tennessee	Houston	6.8	7.8	7.0
Indianapolis	Jacksonville	14.1	14.7	14.4
Pittsburgh	Cleveland	7.6	8.2	8.4
Miami	N Y Jets	10.2	10.2	9.9
Minnesota	Detroit	-2.3	-2.6	-2.3
New England	Buffalo	12.2	10.9	11.6
New Orleans	Tampa Bay	11.6	12.5	12.3
N Y Giants	Washington	5.9	6.0	6.2
Arizona	San Francisco	-3.1	-2.7	-3.1
San Diego	Kansas City	3.2	2.9	2.9
Seattle	St. Louis	11.3	10.7	10.9
Oakland	Denver	-15.3	-15.7	-15.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Playoff Projections

A F C

1. Denver

2. New England

3. Cincinnati

4. Indianapolis

5. Kansas City

6. Miami

 

N F C

1. Seattle

2. Carolina

3. Philadelphia

4. Chicago

5. San Francisco

6. New Orleans

 

Wildcard Round

Cincinnati over Miami

Kansas City over Indianapolis

Philadelphia over New Orleans

San Francisco over Chicago

 

Divisional Round

Denver over Kansas City

New England over Cincinnati

Seattle over San Francisco

Philadelphia over Carolina

 

Conference Championships

New England over Denver

Philadelphia over Seattle

 

Super Bowl

New England over Philadelphia

PiRate Ratings: NFL Football–November 7-11, 2013

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Dallas Cowboys	102.7	104.5	103.2
Washington Redskins	97.1	97.4	97.0
Philadelphia Eagles	96.2	97.3	96.0
New York Giants	94.8	94.4	93.8
North	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Chicago Bears	103.0	102.4	102.4
Green Bay Packers	102.8	102.2	102.6
Detroit Lions	101.8	103.3	101.9
Minnesota Vikings	94.1	93.0	93.2
South	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New Orleans Saints	105.7	107.2	106.2
Carolina Panthers	104.8	104.9	105.1
Atlanta Falcons	97.2	96.3	96.4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	94.4	93.4	93.9
West	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Francisco 49ers	109.7	110.5	110.4
Seattle Seahawks	105.5	105.4	105.1
Arizona Cardinals	97.7	99.2	97.9
St. Louis Rams	96.6	97.1	96.7
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New England Patriots	106.8	104.6	107.0
Miami Dolphins	99.2	98.8	99.4
Buffalo Bills	96.4	96.0	96.7
New York Jets	95.2	93.4	95.5
North	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Cincinnati Bengals	105.8	105.7	106.3
Baltimore Ravens	101.7	100.9	101.1
Cleveland Browns	98.1	98.6	98.1
Pittsburgh Steelers	96.4	95.2	95.6
South	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Indianapolis Colts	105.4	105.7	105.9
Tennessee Titans	100.4	100.8	100.9
Houston Texans	98.4	98.1	99.0
Jacksonville Jaguars	85.2	84.2	84.5
West	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Denver Broncos	110.5	111.0	110.8
Kansas City Chiefs	103.4	105.1	103.9
San Diego Chargers	100.6	101.4	101.2
Oakland Raiders	92.4	92.0	92.3

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Minnesota	Washington	0.0	-1.4	-0.8
Arizona	Houston	2.3	4.1	1.9
Atlanta	Seattle	-4.8	-5.6	-5.2
Baltimore	Cincinnati	-1.1	-1.8	-2.2
Chicago	Detroit	3.7	1.6	3.0
Green Bay	Philadelphia	9.7	8.0	9.7
Indianapolis	St. Louis	11.8	11.6	12.2
N Y Giants	Oakland	6.4	6.4	5.5
New Orleans	Dallas	6.0	5.7	6.0
Pittsburgh	Buffalo	3.0	2.2	1.9
San Diego	Denver	-6.9	-6.6	-6.6
San Francisco	Carolina	8.4	9.1	8.8
Tennessee	Jacksonville	18.2	19.6	19.4
Tampa Bay	Miami	-2.8	-3.4	-3.5
Byes: Cleveland, Kansas City, New England, N Y Jets

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Playoff Projections

A F C

1. Denver

2. New England

3. Indianapolis

4. Cincinnati

5. Kansas City

6. New York Jets

 

N F C

1. Seattle

2. New Orleans

3. Detroit

4. Dallas

5. San Francisco

6. Carolina

 

Wildcard Round

New York Jets over Indianapolis

Kansas City over Cincinnati

Carolina over Detroit

San Francisco over Dallas

 

Divisional Round

Denver over New York Jets

Kansas City over New England

Seattle over Carolina

San Francisco over Dallas

 

Conference Championships

Kansas City over Denver

San Francisco over Seattle

 

Super Bowl

San Francisco over Kansas City