The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 28, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 9: October 31-November 4, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Margins

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Arizona

San Francisco

-9.7

-10.9

-11.1

Jacksonville (n)

Houston

-4.1

-3.9

-3.0

Buffalo

Washington

9.8

9.6

9.5

Carolina

Tennessee

5.5

5.3

6.3

Philadelphia

Chicago

4.3

5.7

5.2

Kansas City

Minnesota

-4.2

-2.2

-3.1

Miami

N.Y. Jets

-3.6

-4.1

-3.2

Pittsburgh

Indianapolis

1.5

1.1

1.8

Oakland

Detroit

0.4

1.6

1.3

Seattle

Tampa Bay

9.6

7.2

6.9

Denver

Cleveland

2.1

1.8

1.5

LA Chargers

Green Bay

-2.8

-3.1

-4.2

Baltimore

New England

-6.0

-7.6

-6.2

N.Y. Giants

Dallas

-7.3

-7.3

-6.2

 

Totals

Home

Visitor

Total

Arizona

San Francisco

47

Jacksonville (n)

Houston

42.5

Buffalo

Washington

35

Carolina

Tennessee

41

Philadelphia

Chicago

44.5

Kansas City

Minnesota

52.5

Miami

N.Y. Jets

46.5

Pittsburgh

Indianapolis

43.5

Oakland

Detroit

49

Seattle

Tampa Bay

54.5

Denver

Cleveland

41.5

LA Chargers

Green Bay

48

Baltimore

New England

44

N.Y. Giants

Dallas

45.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New England

111.0

112.2

111.8

111.7

21

8-0

Buffalo

98.2

99.1

98.5

98.6

17.5

5-2

N. Y. Jets

92.3

93.2

91.9

92.5

20.5

1-6

Miami

86.8

87.0

86.6

86.8

26

0-7

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Baltimore

102.0

101.6

102.6

102.1

23

5-2

Cleveland

99.8

100.1

100.2

100.0

23.5

2-5

Pittsburgh

98.6

99.1

99.4

99.0

21.5

3-4

Cincinnati

93.6

93.3

93.6

93.5

23.5

0-8

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Houston

103.4

103.6

103.2

103.4

23.5

5-3

Indianapolis

100.1

101.0

100.6

100.6

22

5-2

Jacksonville

99.3

99.8

100.2

99.8

19

4-4

Tennessee

98.0

98.4

98.0

98.1

16

4-4

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Kansas City

99.9

100.3

99.7

100.0

30.5

5-3

LA Chargers

100.0

99.8

99.1

99.6

22

3-5

Denver

98.9

99.0

98.7

98.9

18

2-6

Oakland

96.8

96.9

97.4

97.0

24.5

3-4

 

 

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Dallas

104.4

105.0

104.4

104.6

20.5

4-3

Philadelphia

105.1

103.4

103.1

103.8

25.5

4-4

N.Y. Giants

94.2

94.6

95.2

94.7

25

2-6

Washington

91.5

92.4

92.0

92.0

17.5

1-7

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Minnesota

107.1

105.5

105.8

106.2

22

6-2

Green Bay

104.8

104.9

105.3

105.0

26

7-1

Chicago

103.8

100.7

100.8

101.8

19

3-4

Detroit

99.4

98.3

99.0

98.9

24.5

3-3-1

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New Orleans

109.1

106.5

107.0

107.5

24.5

7-1

Carolina

100.5

100.7

101.3

100.8

25

4-3

Tampa Bay

96.0

98.2

98.6

97.6

29

2-5

Atlanta

94.7

94.9

94.1

94.5

26.5

1-7

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

San Francisco

106.8

108.1

108.7

107.9

24

7-0

LA Rams

107.2

105.8

106.1

106.4

27

5-3

Seattle

102.6

102.4

102.5

102.5

25.5

7-1

Arizona

94.1

94.1

94.6

94.3

23

3-4-1

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding

1

New England

2

Indianapolis

3

Baltimore

4

Kansas City

5

Houston

6

Jacksonville

 

 

NFC Seeding

1

New Orleans

2

San Francisco

3

Green Bay

4

Dallas

5

Minnesota

6

LA Rams

 

Wildcard Round

Jacksonville over Baltimore

Houston over Kansas City

Green Bay over LA Rams

Minnesota over Dallas

 

Divisional Round

New England over Jacksonville

Indianapolis over Houston

New Orleans over Minnesota

San Francisco over Green Bay

 

Conference Championship

New England over Indianapolis

New Orleans over San Francisco

 

Super Bowl 54

New England over New Orleans

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

October 14, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 7: October 17-21, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Denver

Kansas City

-0.8

-0.9

-0.4

N.Y. Giants

Arizona

4.0

4.2

4.3

Indianapolis

Houston

-2.3

-1.7

-2.1

Buffalo

Miami

16.6

18.0

18.1

Detroit

Minnesota

-4.1

-3.1

-2.4

Green Bay

Oakland

9.7

9.5

9.2

Cincinnati

Jacksonville

-1.2

-1.8

-1.4

Atlanta

LA Rams

-5.8

-3.6

-3.7

Washington

San Francisco

-10.2

-10.5

-11.5

Tennessee

LA Chargers

1.4

1.5

2.2

Seattle

Baltimore

5.5

5.8

5.0

Chicago

New Orleans

2.3

2.0

2.1

Dallas

Philadelphia

-0.1

2.7

2.3

N.Y. Jets

New England

-13.0

-13.0

-13.7

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New England

109.3

110.4

109.9

109.9

21.5

6-0

Buffalo

99.8

101.2

100.8

100.6

18

4-1

N. Y. Jets

93.8

94.9

93.7

94.1

21.5

1-4

Miami

86.2

86.2

85.7

86.0

26

0-5

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Baltimore

100.7

100.2

101.1

100.7

23

4-2

Cleveland

99.5

99.8

99.9

99.7

23.5

2-4

Pittsburgh

98.5

99.0

99.3

98.9

21.5

2-4

Cincinnati

94.4

94.2

94.8

94.5

24

0-6

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Houston

104.5

104.8

104.6

104.7

23

4-2

Indianapolis

99.2

100.1

99.5

99.6

22

3-2

Jacksonville

98.1

98.5

98.7

98.4

19

2-4

Tennessee

97.9

98.2

97.9

98.0

15

2-4

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Kansas City

104.2

104.6

103.9

104.2

31

4-2

Denver

100.5

100.7

100.5

100.6

19.5

2-4

LA Chargers

99.5

99.7

98.7

99.3

21.5

2-4

Oakland

97.1

97.2

97.8

97.4

23.5

3-2

 

 

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Philadelphia

105.3

103.2

102.9

103.8

25.5

3-3

Dallas

102.2

102.9

102.2

102.4

20.5

3-3

N.Y. Giants

94.7

95.2

95.8

95.2

24.5

2-4

Washington

91.1

92.1

91.5

91.6

19

1-5

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Minnesota

106.6

104.7

105.0

105.5

21.5

4-2

Green Bay

103.8

103.7

104.0

103.8

25

5-1

Chicago

105.9

102.5

102.9

103.8

19

3-2

Detroit

100.0

99.1

100.1

99.8

23

2-2-1

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New Orleans

106.6

103.5

103.8

104.6

23.5

5-1

Carolina

102.0

102.2

103.0

102.4

24.5

4-2

Tampa Bay

95.6

97.9

98.3

97.3

28.5

2-4

Atlanta

96.5

97.0

96.4

96.6

27.5

1-5

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

San Francisco

104.3

105.6

106.0

105.3

23.5

5-0

LA Rams

105.3

103.6

103.7

104.2

28

3-3

Seattle

103.2

103.0

103.1

103.1

25.5

5-1

Arizona

93.7

94.0

94.5

94.1

23.5

2-3-1

 

Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding

1

New England

2

Houston

3

Kansas City

4

Baltimore

5

Buffalo

6

Indianapolis

 

 

NFC Seeding

1

San Francisco

2

New Orleans

3

Green Bay

4

Philadelphia

5

Seattle

6

Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round

Kansas City over Indianapolis

Buffalo over Baltimore

Green Bay over Minnesota

Seattle over Philadelphia

 

 

Divisional Round

New England over Buffalo

Houston over Kansas City

San Francisco over Seattle

New Orleans over Green Bay

 

 

Conference Championship

New England over Houston

San Francisco over New Orleans

 

 

Super Bowl 54

San Francisco over New England

 

 

 

October 7, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 6: October 10-14, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

New England

N. Y. Giants

17.1

17.6

16.1

Tampa Bay

Carolina

-3.1

-0.4

-0.6

Baltimore

Cincinnati

9.9

9.7

10.2

Cleveland

Seattle

-0.5

0.0

0.0

Kansas City

Houston

4.2

4.5

4.2

Jacksonville

New Orleans

-6.0

-2.1

-2.0

Minnesota

Philadelphia

2.1

2.1

2.6

Miami

Washington

-3.1

-4.5

-4.5

LA Rams

San Francisco

7.4

4.0

3.9

Arizona

Atlanta

0.2

0.0

1.2

N. Y. Jets

Dallas

-6.4

-6.2

-7.1

Denver

Tennessee

3.2

3.0

2.9

LA Chargers

Pittsburgh

5.7

5.7

4.4

Green Bay

Detroit

5.9

7.2

6.3

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

Home

Visitor

Total

New England

N. Y. Giants

46

Tampa Bay

Carolina

52

Baltimore

Cincinnati

47.5

Cleveland

Seattle

48

Kansas City

Houston

54

Jacksonville

New Orleans

44

Minnesota

Philadelphia

45

Miami

Washington

46.5

LA Rams

San Francisco

53

Arizona

Atlanta

48

N. Y. Jets

Dallas

42

Denver

Tennessee

36.5

LA Chargers

Pittsburgh

43

Green Bay

Detroit

48

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New England

109.0

110.1

109.4

109.5

21.5

5-0

Buffalo

99.5

100.9

100.5

100.3

18

4-1

N. Y. Jets

93.3

94.3

92.9

93.5

21.5

0-4

Miami

86.1

85.9

85.3

85.8

26.5

0-4

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Baltimore

101.1

100.7

101.7

101.2

23

3-2

Cleveland

99.6

99.9

100.0

99.8

23

2-3

Pittsburgh

97.6

98.0

98.3

97.9

21.5

1-4

Cincinnati

94.3

94.0

94.5

94.3

24.5

0-5

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Houston

103.9

104.1

103.8

104.0

23

3-2

Tennessee

99.3

99.7

99.5

99.5

16.5

2-3

Indianapolis

98.9

99.8

99.2

99.3

22

3-2

Jacksonville

98.1

98.7

99.0

98.6

20

2-3

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Kansas City

105.1

105.6

105.0

105.2

31

4-1

LA Chargers

100.9

101.2

100.2

100.7

21.5

2-3

Denver

99.6

99.7

99.4

99.6

20

1-4

Oakland

96.8

96.9

97.5

97.1

23.5

3-2

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Philadelphia

106.1

104.1

103.9

104.7

24.5

3-2

Dallas

102.7

103.5

103.0

103.1

20.5

3-2

N.Y. Giants

95.0

95.5

96.3

95.6

24.5

2-3

Washington

91.7

92.9

92.4

92.3

20

0-5

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Minnesota

105.2

103.2

103.4

104.0

20.5

3-2

Green Bay

103.5

103.6

103.8

103.6

25

4-1

Chicago

105.6

102.2

102.6

103.5

19

3-2

Detroit

100.0

98.9

100.0

99.7

23

2-1-1

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New Orleans

106.6

103.3

103.5

104.5

24

4-1

Carolina

101.6

101.5

102.2

101.8

24

3-2

Tampa Bay

96.0

98.6

99.1

97.9

28

2-3

Atlanta

96.5

97.0

96.4

96.6

26

1-4

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

LA Rams

107.0

105.1

105.3

105.8

29

3-2

San Francisco

102.6

104.1

104.4

103.7

24

4-0

Seattle

103.1

102.9

103.0

103.0

25

4-1

Arizona

93.7

94.0

94.5

94.1

22

1-3-1

 

Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding

1

New England

2

Kansas City

3

Houston

4

Baltimore

5

Indianapolis

6

Buffalo

NFC Seeding

1

San Francisco

2

New Orleans

3

Green Bay

4

Philadelphia

5

Seattle

6

Minnesota

Wildcard Round

Buffalo over Houston

Indianapolis over Baltimore

Green Bay over Minnesota

Philadelphia over Seattle

 

 

Divisional Round

New England over Buffalo

Kansas City over Indianapolis

Philadelphia over San Francisco

New Orleans over Green Bay

 

 

Conference Championship

New England over Kansas City

New Orleans over Philadelphia

 

 

Super Bowl 54

New England over New Orleans

 

 

 

 

 

September 30, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 5: October 3-7, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

 

Margins

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Seattle

LA Rams

-1.1

0.8

0.7

Pittsburgh

Baltimore

-1.0

-0.3

-0.9

Oakland (n)

Chicago

-10.6

-7.1

-6.8

Cincinnati

Arizona

5.3

4.7

4.9

Carolina

Jacksonville

6.5

5.7

6.2

N.Y. Giants

Minnesota

-5.1

-2.0

-1.0

Washington

New England

-12.7

-12.3

-11.9

Philadelphia

N.Y. Jets

12.2

8.7

9.9

New Orleans

Tampa Bay

14.2

7.7

7.4

Houston

Atlanta

7.5

6.7

6.8

Tennessee

Buffalo

5.5

4.6

5.1

LA Chargers

Denver

6.6

7.0

6.5

Dallas

Green Bay

5.2

6.0

5.5

Kansas City

Indianapolis

12.5

12.3

12.5

San Francisco

Cleveland

1.5

2.6

2.7

 

Totals

Home

Visitor

Total

Seattle

LA Rams

53

Pittsburgh

Baltimore

44.5

Oakland (n)

Chicago

42.5

Cincinnati

Arizona

46.5

Carolina

Jacksonville

42

N.Y. Giants

Minnesota

45.5

Washington

New England

41.5

Philadelphia

N.Y. Jets

47

New Orleans

Tampa Bay

52

Houston

Atlanta

46

Tennessee

Buffalo

36

LA Chargers

Denver

42.5

Dallas

Green Bay

44.5

Kansas City

Indianapolis

54.5

San Francisco

Cleveland

48

 

(n)–Oakland vs. Chicago game played in London

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New England

108.1

109.1

108.3

108.5

21.5

4-0

Buffalo

97.9

99.3

98.7

98.6

18.5

3-1

N. Y. Jets

94.7

96.0

94.6

95.1

22.5

0-3

Miami

85.8

85.6

85.0

85.5

26.5

0-4

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Cleveland

101.7

102.0

102.2

102.0

23.5

2-2

Baltimore

101.1

100.7

101.7

101.2

23

2-2

Pittsburgh

97.6

98.0

98.3

97.9

21.5

1-3

Cincinnati

95.4

95.1

95.7

95.4

24.5

0-4

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Houston

102.7

102.7

102.3

102.6

21.5

2-2

Tennessee

100.4

100.8

100.8

100.7

17.5

2-2

Jacksonville

98.1

98.8

99.0

98.6

19

2-2

Indianapolis

97.1

97.9

97.2

97.4

23

2-2

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Kansas City

106.6

107.2

106.7

106.8

31.5

4-0

LA Chargers

102.5

102.9

102.0

102.4

22

2-2

Denver

98.4

98.4

98.0

98.3

20.5

0-4

Oakland

95.7

95.9

96.5

96.0

23.5

2-2

 

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Dallas

103.9

104.8

104.4

104.4

20

3-1

Philadelphia

105.0

102.7

102.5

103.4

24.5

2-2

N.Y. Giants

96.2

97.0

98.0

97.1

24.5

2-2

Washington

93.0

94.3

93.9

93.7

20

0-4

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Chicago

106.4

102.9

103.3

104.2

19

3-1

Minnesota

104.3

102.0

102.0

102.8

21

2-2

Green Bay

101.8

101.8

101.9

101.8

24.5

3-1

Detroit

99.7

98.6

99.7

99.4

23

2-1-1

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New Orleans

106.9

103.3

103.5

104.6

24

3-1

Carolina

101.6

101.4

102.2

101.7

23

2-2

Atlanta

98.3

99.0

98.5

98.6

24.5

1-3

Tampa Bay

95.7

98.6

99.1

97.8

28

2-2

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

LA Rams

107.1

105.1

105.3

105.8

28.5

3-1

Seattle

103.0

102.9

103.0

103.0

24.5

3-1

San Francisco

100.2

101.7

101.9

101.3

24.5

3-0

Arizona

93.1

93.4

93.8

93.4

22

0-3-1

 

Playoff Projections

 

AFC Seeding

1

New England

2

Kansas City

3

Cleveland

4

Jacksonville

5

Buffalo

6

LA Chargers

 

 

NFC Seeding

1

Seattle

2

New Orleans

3

Chicago

4

Philadelphia

5

LA Rams

6

Green Bay

 

Wildcard Round

LA Chargers over Cleveland

Buffalo over Jacksonville

Chicago over Green Bay

LA Rams over Philadelphia

 

 

Divisional Round

New England over LA Chargers

Kansas City over Buffalo

LA Rams over Seattle

Chicago over New Orleans

 

 

Conference Championship

Kansas City over New England

Chicago over LA Rams

 

 

Super Bowl 53

Kansas City over Chicago

 

 

 

 

 

September 23, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 4: September 26-30, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

 

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Total

Green Bay

Philadelphia

0.7

3.6

4.1

47

Houston

Carolina

5.5

5.9

4.7

45.5

Baltimore

Cleveland

4.6

3.8

5.0

45

N.Y. Giants

Washington

2.4

1.9

2.9

46.5

Miami

LA Chargers

-13.0

-13.4

-12.8

49.5

Indianapolis

Oakland

6.1

6.9

5.8

45

Detroit

Kansas City

-4.2

-6.3

-4.6

52.5

Buffalo

New England

-8.2

-8.0

-8.0

41

Atlanta

Tennessee

3.9

4.7

4.2

44

LA Rams

Tampa Bay

18.3

13.0

12.9

53.5

Arizona

Seattle

-5.1

-4.4

-3.8

48

Chicago

Minnesota

4.4

2.8

3.0

42

Denver

Jacksonville

4.3

3.6

3.0

38

New Orleans

Dallas

5.9

1.0

1.6

45.5

Pittsburgh

Cincinnati

1.5

1.9

1.5

47.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

A F C

 

East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 108.5 109.6 108.9 109.0 22 3-0
Buffalo 97.8 99.1 98.4 98.4 19 3-0
N. Y. Jets 94.4 95.7 94.3 94.8 22.5 0-3
Miami 86.3 86.2 85.7 86.1 27 0-3
 

 

North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Baltimore 102.3 101.9 103.1 102.5 22.5 2-1
Cleveland 100.8 101.1 101.1 101.0 22.5 1-2
Cincinnati 97.0 96.8 97.5 97.1 25.5 0-3
Pittsburgh 96.0 96.3 96.5 96.2 22 0-3
 

 

South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Houston 103.4 103.5 103.1 103.4 22 2-1
Tennessee 99.0 99.2 99.2 99.1 18 1-2
Indianapolis 98.1 99.0 98.4 98.5 22.5 2-1
Jacksonville 97.6 98.3 98.5 98.1 18 1-2
 

 

West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 106.6 107.4 106.9 107.0 31 3-0
LA Chargers 102.3 102.6 101.6 102.1 22.5 1-2
Denver 98.9 98.9 98.5 98.8 20 0-3
Oakland 95.0 95.1 95.6 95.2 22.5 1-2
 

 

N F C

 

East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Dallas 103.7 104.8 104.4 104.3 20.5 3-0
Philadelphia 104.4 101.8 101.5 102.5 23.5 1-2
Washington 94.7 96.0 95.8 95.5 21.5 0-3
N.Y. Giants 94.6 95.4 96.2 95.4 25 1-2
 

 

North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Chicago 106.2 102.5 102.8 103.8 20.5 2-1
Minnesota 104.8 102.7 102.8 103.5 21.5 2-1
Green Bay 102.1 102.4 102.6 102.4 23.5 3-0
Detroit 99.4 98.1 99.2 98.9 21.5 2-0-1
 

 

South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 107.1 103.3 103.5 104.6 25 2-1
Carolina 100.9 100.6 101.4 101.0 23.5 1-2
Atlanta 100.0 100.9 100.4 100.4 26 1-2
Tampa Bay 93.4 96.5 96.9 95.6 27 1-2
 

 

West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 108.7 106.5 106.8 107.3 26.5 3-0
Seattle 102.1 101.9 101.8 101.9 25 2-1
San Francisco 99.9 101.4 101.6 101.0 24.5 3-0
Arizona 94.0 94.4 95.0 94.5 23 0-2-1

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

 

AFC Seeding
1 New England
2 Kansas City
3 Baltimore
4 Indianapolis
5 Buffalo
6 Houston

 

NFC Seeding
1 LA Rams
2 Dallas
3 Green Bay
4 New Orleans
5 Minnesota
6 San Francisco

 

Wildcard Round
Houston over Baltimore
Indianapolis over Buffalo
Green Bay over San Francisco
New Orleans over Minnesota
 

 

Divisional Round
New England over Houston
Kansas City over Indianapolis
LA Rams over New Orleans
Green Bay over Dallas
 

 

Conference Championship
New England over Kansas City
LA Rams over Green Bay
 

 

Super Bowl 53
New England over LA Rams

 

 

 

October 12, 2016

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–October 13-17, 2016

Replayicide

A third consecutive winning week was practically in the bag thanks to a great Sunday comeback. Yes, a terrific 84.7% return on our investment was ours, as Joe Flacco guided the Baltimore Ravens on a fourth quarter comeback to defeat the Washington Redskins, allowing the PiRates to cash in on a really nice +199 parlay.

As Lee Corso says, “Not so fast my friends.” All scoring plays are reviewed. Breshad Perriman appeared to have both feet inbounds in real time with his heel of his second foot hitting green turf, but the instant replay told a different story, and by the distance of a few blades of grass, a big payoff turned into a 15% loss on our investment. Oh well, at least they are imaginary dollars, so we didn’t really lose anything but a little self-pride.

One good thing about doing this exercise just for fun is that you don’t become gun shy when you miss on a big payoff like this, and you don’t have to worry about trying to catch up after a loss or sustain any success; you just select the next week’s games as if the new week is in a vacuum.
We have chosen four new selections this week, three from college and one NFL. This is a strange season for the NFL, so we are lessening our amount of pro plays.

Enjoy these selections, but remember, we highly encourage you not to use them to wager real coin, currency, or plastic on them.

October 13-17, 2016

1. College Parlay @ +157
Idaho over New Mexico St.
Marshall over Florida Atlantic
Florida over Missouri
Georgia over Vanderbilt

We like the job Paul Petrino has done at Idaho and expect the Vandals to win in the Palouse this week; considering that this program has announced that they will leave FBS football to return to FCS and the Big Sky Conference in 2018, Petrino could be on the radar screen of other FBS schools should Idaho make it to 6-6 or better this year. Maybe, this year is their last-gasp effort to sneak into a bowl for the first and possibly last time since 2009 and only the third time ever. Here’s a bit of trivia for you: Idaho was once a member of what is the Pac-12 Conference today. From1922 to 1959, the Vandals were in the same league as USC, UCLA, Cal, Oregon, and Stanford. The Idaho-Washington St. rivalry remains strong since the two schools are within walking distance of each other.

Marshall is off to its weakest start in the Doc Holliday tenure, but the Herd should begin to thunder this week against FAU. The Owls lost at Charlotte last week, and Coach Charlie Partridge will be doing his cooing from another pear tree next year.

Florida and Missouri both had last Saturday off, with the Gators’ bye week coming unexpectedly. The good news for Florida was that by watching the most recent game film of the team they were supposed to play last week (LSU), they just happened to watch this week’s opponent. We think the Gators win a rather dull, low-scoring affair in the 14-10 range.

Georgia has not looked brilliant for 60 minutes in any game this year, but even playing 20 minutes brilliantly this week should be enough to win over a Vanderbilt team that is “0 for” on the road in the SEC under Coach Derek Mason and has no passing game.

2. College Parlay @ +192
Arkansas St. over South Alabama
Ohio St. over Wisconsin
Ball St. over Buffalo
Memphis over Tulane

Arkansas State might replicate what Texas A&M did in 1967. The Red Wolves began the season 0-4 and could run the table after that start. South Alabama is a team that gets up for big-time opponents and seems to not show up against opponents not considered big-time.

Wisconsin’s incredibly difficult schedule is about to come down hard in Badgerland. After losing at Michigan, we expect Ohio State to make the home team fans a bit sad as they exit Camp Randall Stadium Saturday. There is an issue of team speed in this game, and UW will eventually succumb to it.

Ball State is on the cusp of being a rather decent team in MAC football, but they are not there yet. However, this Buffalo team is at the bottom of the league, and they lost at home to Kent State last week. The Cardinals look to pick up their biggest point differential win of the season.

Memphis will have a tough time in New Orleans on Saturday, as Tulane is one of those pesky teams that opponents do not enjoy playing. First-year Green Wave coach Willie Fritz is known for his unique style of multiple option running and play-action passing plays, and his offense is eating up the clock with a true freshman quarterback guiding it, but it is the TU defense that is really getting the job done. It just goes to show that the best defense in football is a good time-consuming offense. Still, it is asking a bit too much to expect a green Green Wave squad to upset a team that thinks they can now win the West Division of the AAC.

3. College Parlay @ +172
Florida Int’l. over Charlotte
Ohio U over Eastern Michigan
BYU over Mississippi St.

Ron Turner has been in this boat before. When he coached at Illinois, Turner endured some lean seasons with just two wins, before surprising the nation with a trip to the Rose Bowl and upset of top-ranked Ohio State. Turner has slowly improved FIU from one to four to five wins in his three years in Miami, and the Panthers now could contend for a minor bowl. In order to do so, they have to beat a Charlotte team that just gained a little confidence with their first ever CUSA win last week. We expect FIU to win by at least 10-14 points.

Frank Solich has the Ohio Bobcats in the driver’s seat to win the MAC East this year, as his chief competition, Akron, has a tougher conference schedule, and the season finale between the two is in Athens. The Bobcats respect this EMU team, because this Eagles’ team is 4-2 and thinks it is going to win two more games this year. It was a tough choice, but we sided with OU in this game.

Mississippi State appears to be the 13th best team in the SEC this year, and the Bulldogs already have a home out-of-conference loss to South Alabama. Having to travel to Utah to face a BYU team that is about two touchdowns better today than they were at the start of the season means another loss for the SEC school.

4. NFL Parlay @ +220
New England over Cincinnati
Buffalo over San Francisco
Oakland over Kansas City

Do you expect Tom Brady to lose to anybody in his home debut? We’d go with the Pats to beat the NFC Pro Bowl team this week. Cincinnati could be out of the playoff race after this week, and Marvin Lewis could be in jeopardy of losing his job if the Bengals fall to third in the AFC North.

San Francisco must travel almost 3,000 to the Ontario border to face a mean Buffalo team that has turned things around since their Monday Night debacle against the Jets. Colin Kaepernick will get his first start, and we would not be surprised if subconsciously, the officials see an extra penalty here or there that costs the 49ers a crucial first down. Rex Ryan can sniff playoffs with this Bills’ team. It’s been a very long dry spell for Buffalo, even longer than the Raiders’ dry spell, and a win Sunday puts Buffalo at 4-2.

If you haven’t read our NFL preview from Tuesday, you should read what we had to write about the Oakland – Kansas City rivalry.

Link: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2016/10/11/nfl-ratings-and-spreads-for-week-5-october-13-17-2016/

This game promises to be one of the best between these two franchises since the old Daryle Lamonica vs. Len Dawson days. The game even shapes up to play like it was from 1968–Oakland has the wide-open high-octane offense and some big play defensive stars, while Kansas City has the better ball-control offense to go with a top-flight defense. All that will be missing is the odd characters like Ben Davidson, Buck Buchanan, Fred Williamson, and Fred Biletnikoff, who wore shoulder pads about as thick as tissue paper and used enough Stickem that he could catch a pass without using his fingers.

January 17, 2014

PiRate Ratings NFL Conference Champion Game Previews–January 19, 2014

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:15 pm

NFL Conference Championship Playoff TV Schedule

Day

Time (ET)

Game

TV

Radio

Sunday, January 19

3:00 PM

New England @ Denver

CBS

Westwood 1

Sunday, January 19

6:30 PM

San Francisco @ Seattle

Fox

Westwood 1

   

To find a local Westwood 1 radio affiliate, check this link:

http://westwoodonesports.com/stations/

Weather Forecasts For Kickoff and Next 3-4 hours

Seattle—Mostly cloudy with virtually no wind.  Temperatures falling from the upper to the lower 40’s during the game.

 

 

Denver—Incredibly beautiful, Spring-like afternoon.  Temperatures starting in the upper 50’s with plentiful sunshine.  Light winds, and temperatures will fall to around 50 by the end of the game.

 

 

PiRate Spreads

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Seattle San Francisco

1.9

1.9

1.9

Denver New England

4.8

6.6

5.2

 

Computer Simulations (100x)

San Francisco at Seattle

San Francisco wins: 54

Seattle wins: 46

Average Margin: San Francisco 22.1  Seattle 20.7 

SF Outlier Win: 31-10

Sea Outlier Win: 24-3

 

New England at Denver

NE Wins: 53

Denver Wins: 47

Average Margin: New England 27.9  Denver 27.6

NE Outlier Win: 41-24

Den Outlier Win: 34-16

 

This is potentially the best pair of conference championship games since 2001-02.

January 8, 2014

PiRate Ratings: NFL Divisional Playoff Round–January 11-12, 2014

Wildcard Playoff TV Schedule

Day

Time (ET)

Game

TV

Radio

Saturday, January 11

4:35 PM

New Orleans @ Seattle

Fox

Westwood 1

Saturday, January 11

8:15 PM

Indianapolis @ New England

CBS

Westwood 1

Sunday, January 12

1:05 PM

San Francisco @ Carolina

Fox

Westwood 1

Sunday, January 12

4:40 PM

San Diego @ Denver

CBS

Westwood 1

   

 

 

 

To find a local Westwood 1 radio affiliate, check this link:

http://westwoodonesports.com/stations/

 

Weather Forecasts For Kickoff and Next 3-4 hours

Seattle—100% chance of rain, potentially heavy, and windy with a game time temperature in the mid to upper 40’s and falling slowly through the duration of the game

 

New England—60% chance of rain and gusty winds with temperatures holding steady near 50 throughout the game.

 

Carolina—Partly cloudy with a small rain chance and light winds with temperatures in the mid to upper 50’s during the course of the game.

 

Denver—Partly cloudy with a small rain chance and moderate wind gusts with temperatures at kickoff in the mid-40’s and falling into the 30’s during the game.

 

 

PiRate Spreads

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Seattle New Orleans

7.3

6.9

6.9

New England Indianapolis

7.0

5.4

6.7

Carolina San Francisco

-1.5

-2.0

-1.7

Denver San Diego

7.3

7.4

7.7

 

Computer Simulations (100x)

New Orleans at Seattle

New Orleans wins: 14

Seattle wins: 86

Average Margin: Seattle 32.3  New Orleans 22.6

NO Outlier Win: 36-24

Sea Outlier Win: 44-13

 

Indianapolis at New England

Indianapolis Wins: 33

New England Wins: 67

Average Margin: New England 29.4  Indianapolis 23.1

Ind Outlier Win: 34-19

NE Outlier Win: 31-6

 

San Francisco at Carolina

San Francisco Wins: 64

Carolina Wins: 36

Average Margin: San Francisco 22.8  Carolina 18.6

SF Outlier Win: 30-10

Car Outlier Win: 21-6

 

San Diego at Denver

San Diego Wins: 49

Denver Wins: 51

Average Margin: San Diego 29.8  Denver 29.6

SD Outlier Win: 49-27

Den Outlier Win: 52-31

This one surprised us, but then again San Diego already won at Denver once before this season.

December 24, 2013

PiRate Ratings: NFL for Week 17–December 29, 2013

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:47 am

The Playoff Races In Full

A F C

 

Denver

Clinches #1 Seed with home field advantage throughout the AFC Playoffs with a win or tie vs. Oakland, or

A New England loss or tie against Buffalo

Falls to #2 Seed if they lose to Oakland and New England beats Buffalo

New England

Clinches #1 Seed with home field advantage throughout the AFC Playoffs with a win over Buffalo and a Denver loss to Oakland

Clinches #2 Seed with a win or tie vs. Buffalo, or a Cincinnati loss or tie to Baltimore and an Indianapolis loss or tie against Jacksonville

Cincinnati

Clinches #2 Seed with a win over Baltimore and a loss by New England to Buffalo

 

Wins Tiebreaker over Indianapolis for #3 Seed (Head-to-Head Win)

 

Indianapolis

Clinches #2 Seed with a win over Jacksonville and a New England loss to Buffalo and a Cincinnati loss or tie to Baltimore

 

Clinches #3 Seed with a win over Jacksonville and a Cincinnati loss or tie to Baltimore, or

 

A tie over Jacksonville and a Cincinnati loss to Baltimore

 

Kansas City

Has already clinched #5 Seed

Miami

Clinches #6 Seed with a win over the NY Jets and Baltimore loss or tie to Cincinnati, or

A win over NY Jets and a San Diego win over Kansas City, or

A tie with NY Jets, and a Baltimore loss to Cincinnati, and a San Diego loss or tie vs. Kansas City, or

A tie with NY Jets, and a Baltimore tie vs. Cincinnati, and a San Diego tie vs. Kansas City

Baltimore

Clinches #6 Seed with a win over Cincinnati and a San Diego loss or tie vs. Kansas City, or

A win over Cincinnati, and a Miami loss or tie vs. NY Jets, or

A tie vs. Cincinnati, and a Miami loss to NY Jets, and a San Diego loss or tie with Kansas City, or

A tie vs. Cincinnati, and a Miami tie with NY Jets, and a San Diego loss to Kansas City, or

A Miami loss to NY Jets, and a San Diego loss to Kansas City, and a Pittsburgh loss or tie with Cleveland

San Diego

Clinches #6 Seed with win over Kansas City, and Miami loss or tie with NY Jets, and Baltimore loss or tie with Cincinnati, or

 

A tie with Kansas City, and a Miami loss to NY Jets, and Baltimore loss to Cincinnati

Pittsburgh

Clinches #6 Seed with win over Cleveland, and Miami loss to NY Jets, and Baltimore loss to Cincinnati, and San Diego loss to Kansas City

N F C

 

Seattle

Clinches #1 Seed with home field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs with a win or tie against St. Louis, or

A San Francisco loss or tie against Arizona

Carolina

Clinches #1 Seed with a win over Atlanta and a Seattle loss to St. Louis, and a San Francisco win over Arizona

Clinches #2 Seed with a win or tie with Atlanta, or

A New Orleans loss or tie with Tampa Bay

Philadelphia

Clinches #3 Seed with win or tie with Dallas

Chicago

Clinches the NFC North Division with a win or tie with Green Bay

Clinches #3 Seed with a win over Green Bay and Dallas winning the NFC East (wins tiebreaker based on head-to-head win)

Clinches #4 Seed if Philadelphia wins the NFC East, (or if Bears tie and Dallas wins)

San Francisco

Clinches #1 Seed with home field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs with a win over Arizona, and a Seattle loss to St. Louis, and a Carolina loss or tie with Atlanta

Clinches #2 Seed with a win over Arizona and a Seattle loss to St. Louis

Clinches #5 Seed with win over Arizona, or

A New Orleans loss to Tampa Bay (New Orleans and Carolina both hold tiebreaker based on head-to-head win)

Clinches #6 Seed if tied with either New Orleans or Carolina or both

New Orleans

Clinches #2 Seed with win over Tampa Bay and Carolina Loss to Atlanta

 

Clinches #5 Seed with win over Tampa Bay, or

A tie with Tampa Bay and an Arizona loss or tie with San Francisco, or

An Arizona loss to San Francisco

 

Clinches #6 Seed with a loss to Tampa Bay and a San Francisco win or tie over Arizona, or

A Tie with Tampa Bay and a San Francisco tie with Arizona (holds tiebreaker over Arizona based on head-to-head win)

Arizona

Clinches #6 Seed with a win over San Francisco and a New Orleans loss or tie with Tampa Bay, or

A Tie with San Francisco, and a New Orleans loss to Tampa Bay

Dallas

Clinches #3 Seed with a win over Philadelphia and a Chicago loss or tie with Green Bay

Clinches #4 Seed with a win over Philadelphia and a Chicago win over Green Bay (loses tiebreaker to Chicago based on head-to-head loss)

Green Bay

Clinches #4 Seed with a win over Chicago

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Philadelphia Eagles

101.8

103.0

102.1

Dallas Cowboys

97.7

97.8

96.9

New York Giants

95.6

95.7

95.3

Washington Redskins

92.2

92.2

91.6

       
North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Detroit Lions

100.3

100.3

99.9

Chicago Bears

98.8

98.4

98.3

Green Bay Packers

98.1

97.3

97.4

Minnesota Vikings

95.5

95.2

95.1

       
South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

New Orleans Saints

105.5

106.1

106.2

Carolina Panthers

105.5

105.8

105.8

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

96.9

96.6

96.9

Atlanta Falcons

95.2

94.6

94.4

 

 

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

San Francisco 49ers

110.0

110.6

110.4

Seattle Seahawks

109.5

109.9

109.8

Arizona Cardinals

103.9

104.9

104.3

St. Louis Rams

100.7

101.7

101.4

       

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

New England Patriots

107.1

105.5

106.9

Miami Dolphins

100.0

99.2

99.9

Buffalo Bills

97.9

97.6

98.3

New York Jets

92.8

92.0

93.0

       
North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Cincinnati Bengals

108.1

108.5

108.4

Baltimore Ravens

100.3

100.0

100.3

Pittsburgh Steelers

99.9

99.9

100.2

Cleveland Browns

94.3

93.7

93.8

       
South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Indianapolis Colts

102.9

103.3

103.2

Tennessee Titans

97.4

97.5

97.4

Houston Texans

92.6

91.7

92.4

Jacksonville Jaguars

90.8

90.6

90.8

       
West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Denver Broncos

110.0

110.5

110.4

San Diego Chargers

103.6

104.0

103.6

Kansas City Chiefs

103.4

104.1

103.7

Oakland Raiders

91.7

91.8

91.9

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Atlanta Carolina

-8.3

-9.2

-9.4

Chicago Green Bay

3.7

4.1

3.9

Cincinnati Baltimore

10.8

11.5

11.1

Dallas Philadelphia

-1.1

-2.2

-2.2

Tennessee Houston

6.8

7.8

7.0

Indianapolis Jacksonville

14.1

14.7

14.4

Pittsburgh Cleveland

7.6

8.2

8.4

Miami N Y Jets

10.2

10.2

9.9

Minnesota Detroit

-2.3

-2.6

-2.3

New England Buffalo

12.2

10.9

11.6

New Orleans Tampa Bay

11.6

12.5

12.3

N Y Giants Washington

5.9

6.0

6.2

Arizona San Francisco

-3.1

-2.7

-3.1

San Diego Kansas City

3.2

2.9

2.9

Seattle St. Louis

11.3

10.7

10.9

Oakland Denver

-15.3

-15.7

-15.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Playoff Projections

A F C

1. Denver

2. New England

3. Cincinnati

4. Indianapolis

5. Kansas City

6. Miami

 

N F C

1. Seattle

2. Carolina

3. Philadelphia

4. Chicago

5. San Francisco

6. New Orleans

 

Wildcard Round

Cincinnati over Miami

Kansas City over Indianapolis

Philadelphia over New Orleans

San Francisco over Chicago

 

Divisional Round

Denver over Kansas City

New England over Cincinnati

Seattle over San Francisco

Philadelphia over Carolina

 

Conference Championships

New England over Denver

Philadelphia over Seattle

 

Super Bowl

New England over Philadelphia

November 5, 2013

PiRate Ratings: NFL Football–November 7-11, 2013

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Dallas Cowboys

102.7

104.5

103.2

Washington Redskins

97.1

97.4

97.0

Philadelphia Eagles

96.2

97.3

96.0

New York Giants

94.8

94.4

93.8

       
North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Chicago Bears

103.0

102.4

102.4

Green Bay Packers

102.8

102.2

102.6

Detroit Lions

101.8

103.3

101.9

Minnesota Vikings

94.1

93.0

93.2

       
South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

New Orleans Saints

105.7

107.2

106.2

Carolina Panthers

104.8

104.9

105.1

Atlanta Falcons

97.2

96.3

96.4

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

94.4

93.4

93.9

 

 

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

San Francisco 49ers

109.7

110.5

110.4

Seattle Seahawks

105.5

105.4

105.1

Arizona Cardinals

97.7

99.2

97.9

St. Louis Rams

96.6

97.1

96.7

       

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

New England Patriots

106.8

104.6

107.0

Miami Dolphins

99.2

98.8

99.4

Buffalo Bills

96.4

96.0

96.7

New York Jets

95.2

93.4

95.5

       
North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Cincinnati Bengals

105.8

105.7

106.3

Baltimore Ravens

101.7

100.9

101.1

Cleveland Browns

98.1

98.6

98.1

Pittsburgh Steelers

96.4

95.2

95.6

       
South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Indianapolis Colts

105.4

105.7

105.9

Tennessee Titans

100.4

100.8

100.9

Houston Texans

98.4

98.1

99.0

Jacksonville Jaguars

85.2

84.2

84.5

       
West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Denver Broncos

110.5

111.0

110.8

Kansas City Chiefs

103.4

105.1

103.9

San Diego Chargers

100.6

101.4

101.2

Oakland Raiders

92.4

92.0

92.3

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Minnesota Washington

0.0

-1.4

-0.8

Arizona Houston

2.3

4.1

1.9

Atlanta Seattle

-4.8

-5.6

-5.2

Baltimore Cincinnati

-1.1

-1.8

-2.2

Chicago Detroit

3.7

1.6

3.0

Green Bay Philadelphia

9.7

8.0

9.7

Indianapolis St. Louis

11.8

11.6

12.2

N Y Giants Oakland

6.4

6.4

5.5

New Orleans Dallas

6.0

5.7

6.0

Pittsburgh Buffalo

3.0

2.2

1.9

San Diego Denver

-6.9

-6.6

-6.6

San Francisco Carolina

8.4

9.1

8.8

Tennessee Jacksonville

18.2

19.6

19.4

Tampa Bay Miami

-2.8

-3.4

-3.5

   

 

 

 

Byes: Cleveland, Kansas City, New England, N Y Jets

 

 

 

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Playoff Projections

A F C

1. Denver

2. New England

3. Indianapolis

4. Cincinnati

5. Kansas City

6. New York Jets

 

N F C

1. Seattle

2. New Orleans

3. Detroit

4. Dallas

5. San Francisco

6. Carolina

 

Wildcard Round

New York Jets over Indianapolis

Kansas City over Cincinnati

Carolina over Detroit

San Francisco over Dallas

 

Divisional Round

Denver over New York Jets

Kansas City over New England

Seattle over Carolina

San Francisco over Dallas

 

Conference Championships

Kansas City over Denver

San Francisco over Seattle

 

Super Bowl

San Francisco over Kansas City

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