PiRate Ratings For Conference Championship Round January 19, 2020

Margins

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Kansas City	Tennessee	5.5	6.0	7.0
San Francisco	Green Bay	7.3	7.8	7.5

Totals

Home	Visitor	Total
Kansas City	Tennessee	51
San Francisco	Green Bay	49.5

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 17: December 29, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

 

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Baltimore	Pittsburgh	13.8	13.6	14.0
Buffalo	N.Y. Jets	8.3	8.6	9.4
Carolina	New Orleans	-14.7	-13.4	-13.7
Cincinnati	Cleveland	-4.1	-4.5	-4.3
Dallas	Washington	16.0	15.4	15.5
Detroit	Green Bay	-7.2	-8.7	-9.2
Houston	Tennessee	1.4	1.7	1.7
Jacksonville	Indianapolis	-7.8	-8.5	-8.0
Kansas City	LA Chargers	9.2	10.2	10.9
Minnesota	Chicago	6.7	7.8	8.0
New England	Miami	21.7	22.0	21.6
N. Y. Giants	Philadelphia	-7.2	-5.7	-5.0
Tampa Bay	Atlanta	1.5	2.5	2.9
Denver	Oakland	7.1	7.6	7.3
LA Rams	Arizona	9.4	8.3	8.1
Seattle	San Francisco	-3.0	-3.9	-3.9

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

 

Home	Visitor	Total
Baltimore	Pittsburgh	44
Buffalo	N.Y. Jets	38
Carolina	New Orleans	53
Cincinnati	Cleveland	47.5
Dallas	Washington	41.5
Detroit	Green Bay	47.5
Houston	Tennessee	45
Jacksonville	Indianapolis	41
Kansas City	LA Chargers	51.5
Minnesota	Chicago	38.5
New England	Miami	48
N. Y. Giants	Philadelphia	49
Tampa Bay	Atlanta	55.5
Denver	Oakland	44.5
LA Rams	Arizona	51
Seattle	San Francisco	49.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	108.0	108.7	108.2	108.3	19.5	12-3
Buffalo	102.0	103.0	103.0	102.7	17	10-5
N. Y. Jets	94.7	95.4	94.6	94.9	21	6-9
Miami	89.4	89.7	89.6	89.6	28.5	4-11
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	111.7	111.9	112.7	112.1	25	13-2
Pittsburgh	98.9	99.4	99.7	99.3	19	8-7
Cleveland	97.8	97.9	97.8	97.8	24	6-9
Cincinnati	92.7	92.4	92.5	92.5	23.5	1-14
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Houston	102.2	102.7	102.7	102.6	23.5	10-5
Tennessee	101.8	102.0	102.0	101.9	21.5	8-7
Indianapolis	100.1	100.9	100.3	100.4	23	7-8
Jacksonville	91.3	91.4	91.3	91.3	18	5-10
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	107.0	107.7	107.7	107.5	29.5	11-4
LA Chargers	100.4	100.0	99.3	99.9	22	5-10
Denver	99.0	99.3	99.1	99.1	19	6-9
Oakland	92.8	92.7	92.8	92.8	25.5	7-8
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	104.2	104.3	103.9	104.1	22	7-8
Philadelphia	101.9	100.7	100.5	101.0	23.5	8-7
N.Y. Giants	93.7	94.0	94.4	94.0	25.5	4-11
Washington	91.3	91.9	91.4	91.5	19.5	3-12
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	106.8	105.7	105.8	106.1	21.5	10-5
Green Bay	103.8	103.8	104.2	103.9	24	12-3
Chicago	101.1	98.9	98.8	99.6	17	7-8
Detroit	95.0	93.6	93.5	94.1	23.5	3-11-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	108.7	107.2	107.7	107.9	27	12-3
Tampa Bay	101.1	102.3	102.6	102.0	29.5	7-8
Atlanta	100.6	100.8	100.7	100.7	26	6-9
Carolina	93.0	92.8	93.0	92.9	26	5-10
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
San Francisco	107.2	107.9	108.1	107.7	26	12-3
LA Rams	104.5	103.6	104.0	104.0	26.5	8-7
Seattle	101.2	101.0	101.2	101.1	23.5	11-4
Arizona	96.1	96.3	96.9	96.4	24.5	5-9-1

 

 

 

Week 17 Playoff Scenarios

 

NFC

If San Francisco, New Orleans, and Green Bay all win, San Francisco is  the #1 seed, Green Bay the #2 seed, and New Orleans the #3 seed.

If Seattle beats San Francisco, then Green Bay will get #1 seed with win over Detroit.

If Seattle beats San Francisco, and Detroit beats Green Bay, then New Orleans gets #1 seed with a win over Carolina.

If Seatlle beats San Francisco, and Green Bay and New Orleans lose, Seattle gets the #1 seed.

Philadelphia wins the NFC East with a win over the Giants or a Dallas loss to Washington. Any ties in the standings would go to Dallas.

Minnesota is #6 seed regardless of week 17 results.

 

AFC

Houston has clinched the #1 seed in the AFC

New England clinches the #2 seed with a win over Miami or a Kansas City loss to the Chargers.

Houston can pass Kansas City for the #3 seed with a win over Tennessee and a loss by Kansas City.

Buffalo is the #5 seed regardless of week 17 results.

Tennessee wins the #6 seed if they beat Houston, or with a loss with Pittsburgh losing to Baltimore while both Oakland and Indianapolis do not win.

Pittsburgh wins the #6 seed only if they win and the Titans lose.

Oakland can clinch the #6 seed with a win over Denver, plus losses by Tennessee and Pittsburgh and Indianapolis beating Jacksonville.

 

PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

 

What are the chances that the Oakland Raiders, in their last season playing in Oakland, could sneak into the NFL Playoffs?  It ranges from + or – 10-15% depending on which advanced metric expert you listen to.  We’re sabermetric experts that do not perform these type of metrics on pro football.

The way we look at things, Baltimore has nothing to gain this week against Pittsburgh in their season finale.  Their key players should play little or not at all.  Can the Steelers with poor quarterback play rise up and beat the Ravens’ reserves if they couldn’t beat the Jets last week?

Tennessee has now dropped two games in a row to playoff teams in Houston and New Orleans, both at home.  Houston may have a chance to move up to a #3 seed if Kansas City is upset earlier in the day.  

Oakland closes out regular season play at Denver, where the Broncos have nothing to play for in Week 17.

Indianapolis is playing solely to get to 8-8, while Jacksonville has nothing to play for in Week 17.

We think Oakland’s chances to sneak in as the final playoff team is considerably better than 15%.  In fact, just because it would make such a great story, we are going to select the Raiders as our 6th seed to set up a probably Oakland finale against their most hated rivals.

 

AFC Seeding
1	Baltimore
2	New England
3	Kansas City
4	Houston
5	Buffalo
6	Oakland
NFC Seeding
1	Green Bay
2	New Orleans
3	Seattle
4	Philadelphia
5	San Francisco
6	Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round

Kansas City over Oakland

Buffalo over Houston

Minnesota over Seattle

San Francisco over Philadelphia

Divisional Round

Buffalo over Baltimore

Kansas City over New England

Green Bay over Minnesota

New Orleans over San Francisco

Conference Championship

Kansas City over Buffalo

New Orleans over Green Bay

Super Bowl 54

New Orleans over Kansas City

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 13: November 28-December 2, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Margins

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Detroit	Chicago	-2.8	-1.2	-0.9
Dallas	Buffalo	8.4	7.9	8.0
Atlanta	New Orleans	-7.4	-5.1	-5.8
Cincinnati	N.Y. Jets	-2.5	-3.5	-2.4
Indianapolis	Tennessee	4.8	5.2	5.1
Miami	Philadelphia	-14.2	-12.4	-12.3
N.Y. Giants	Green Bay	-5.2	-5.0	-5.0
Pittsburgh	Cleveland	2.6	2.5	2.8
Carolina	Washington	10.9	10.1	11.0
Jacksonville	Tampa Bay	0.7	-0.9	-1.2
Baltimore	San Francisco	6.3	5.4	6.1
Arizona	LA Rams	-5.5	-3.7	-3.3
Denver	LA Chargers	-0.1	0.3	0.6
Kansas City	Oakland	8.1	8.6	7.8
Houston	New England	-4.1	-4.7	-4.6
Seattle	Minnesota	-0.1	1.3	1.2

 

Totals

Home	Visitor	Total
Detroit	Chicago	41.5
Dallas	Buffalo	38.5
Atlanta	New Orleans	50.5
Cincinnati	N.Y. Jets	44.5
Indianapolis	Tennessee	41
Miami	Philadelphia	50
N.Y. Giants	Green Bay	50.5
Pittsburgh	Cleveland	44
Carolina	Washington	43.5
Jacksonville	Tampa Bay	48.5
Baltimore	San Francisco	49.5
Arizona	LA Rams	49.5
Denver	LA Chargers	39
Kansas City	Oakland	55.5
Houston	New England	43.5
Seattle	Minnesota	48

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	109.4	110.2	109.8	109.8	20.5	10-1
Buffalo	100.0	101.1	100.8	100.6	17.5	8-3
N. Y. Jets	96.5	97.4	96.5	96.8	21.5	4-7
Miami	87.4	87.6	87.3	87.4	26.5	2-9
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	111.3	111.3	112.4	111.7	25	9-2
Cleveland	99.7	100.1	100.2	100.0	23.5	5-6
Pittsburgh	99.3	99.7	100.0	99.6	20.5	6-5
Cincinnati	91.6	91.3	91.6	91.5	23	0-11
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Houston	102.3	102.5	102.2	102.4	23	7-4
Indianapolis	101.0	101.9	101.5	101.5	22	6-5
Tennessee	99.2	99.6	99.4	99.4	19	6-5
Jacksonville	95.5	95.7	95.6	95.6	19	4-7
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	100.7	101.2	100.8	100.9	31	7-4
LA Chargers	101.1	100.9	100.3	100.7	21	4-7
Denver	98.0	98.2	97.9	98.0	18	3-8
Oakland	95.6	95.6	96.0	95.7	24.5	6-5
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	105.4	106.0	105.8	105.7	21	6-5
Philadelphia	104.1	102.5	102.2	102.9	23.5	5-6
N.Y. Giants	93.1	93.3	93.6	93.3	25.5	2-9
Washington	89.7	90.4	89.9	90.0	18	2-9
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	106.9	105.5	105.8	106.1	23	8-3
Chicago	102.9	100.0	99.9	100.9	17	5-6
Green Bay	100.8	100.9	101.1	100.9	25	8-3
Detroit	97.5	96.3	96.5	96.8	24.5	3-7-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	107.4	105.3	105.6	106.1	25	9-2
Tampa Bay	97.3	99.0	99.3	98.5	29.5	4-7
Carolina	98.0	98.0	98.4	98.1	25.5	5-6
Atlanta	97.5	97.7	97.3	97.5	25.5	3-8
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
San Francisco	108.5	109.4	109.8	109.2	24.5	10-1
Seattle	103.8	103.8	104.0	103.9	25	9-2
LA Rams	103.5	102.1	102.4	102.7	25.5	6-5
Arizona	95.0	95.4	96.1	95.5	24	3-7-1

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1	Baltimore
2	New England
3	Houston
4	Kansas City
5	Buffalo
6	Pittsburgh
NFC Seeding
1	San Francisco
2	New Orleans
3	Green Bay
4	Dallas
5	Seattle
6	Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round

Houston over Pittsburgh

Buffalo over Kansas City

Minnesota over Green Bay

Seattle over Dallas

Divisional Round

Baltimore over Buffalo

Houston over New England

San Francisco over Minnesota

Seattle over New Orleans

Conference Championship

Baltimore over Houston

San Francisco over Seattle

Super Bowl 54

Baltimore over San Francisco

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 9: October 31-November 4, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Margins

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Arizona	San Francisco	-9.7	-10.9	-11.1
Jacksonville (n)	Houston	-4.1	-3.9	-3.0
Buffalo	Washington	9.8	9.6	9.5
Carolina	Tennessee	5.5	5.3	6.3
Philadelphia	Chicago	4.3	5.7	5.2
Kansas City	Minnesota	-4.2	-2.2	-3.1
Miami	N.Y. Jets	-3.6	-4.1	-3.2
Pittsburgh	Indianapolis	1.5	1.1	1.8
Oakland	Detroit	0.4	1.6	1.3
Seattle	Tampa Bay	9.6	7.2	6.9
Denver	Cleveland	2.1	1.8	1.5
LA Chargers	Green Bay	-2.8	-3.1	-4.2
Baltimore	New England	-6.0	-7.6	-6.2
N.Y. Giants	Dallas	-7.3	-7.3	-6.2

 

Totals

Home	Visitor	Total
Arizona	San Francisco	47
Jacksonville (n)	Houston	42.5
Buffalo	Washington	35
Carolina	Tennessee	41
Philadelphia	Chicago	44.5
Kansas City	Minnesota	52.5
Miami	N.Y. Jets	46.5
Pittsburgh	Indianapolis	43.5
Oakland	Detroit	49
Seattle	Tampa Bay	54.5
Denver	Cleveland	41.5
LA Chargers	Green Bay	48
Baltimore	New England	44
N.Y. Giants	Dallas	45.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	111.0	112.2	111.8	111.7	21	8-0
Buffalo	98.2	99.1	98.5	98.6	17.5	5-2
N. Y. Jets	92.3	93.2	91.9	92.5	20.5	1-6
Miami	86.8	87.0	86.6	86.8	26	0-7
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	102.0	101.6	102.6	102.1	23	5-2
Cleveland	99.8	100.1	100.2	100.0	23.5	2-5
Pittsburgh	98.6	99.1	99.4	99.0	21.5	3-4
Cincinnati	93.6	93.3	93.6	93.5	23.5	0-8
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Houston	103.4	103.6	103.2	103.4	23.5	5-3
Indianapolis	100.1	101.0	100.6	100.6	22	5-2
Jacksonville	99.3	99.8	100.2	99.8	19	4-4
Tennessee	98.0	98.4	98.0	98.1	16	4-4
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	99.9	100.3	99.7	100.0	30.5	5-3
LA Chargers	100.0	99.8	99.1	99.6	22	3-5
Denver	98.9	99.0	98.7	98.9	18	2-6
Oakland	96.8	96.9	97.4	97.0	24.5	3-4
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	104.4	105.0	104.4	104.6	20.5	4-3
Philadelphia	105.1	103.4	103.1	103.8	25.5	4-4
N.Y. Giants	94.2	94.6	95.2	94.7	25	2-6
Washington	91.5	92.4	92.0	92.0	17.5	1-7
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	107.1	105.5	105.8	106.2	22	6-2
Green Bay	104.8	104.9	105.3	105.0	26	7-1
Chicago	103.8	100.7	100.8	101.8	19	3-4
Detroit	99.4	98.3	99.0	98.9	24.5	3-3-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	109.1	106.5	107.0	107.5	24.5	7-1
Carolina	100.5	100.7	101.3	100.8	25	4-3
Tampa Bay	96.0	98.2	98.6	97.6	29	2-5
Atlanta	94.7	94.9	94.1	94.5	26.5	1-7
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
San Francisco	106.8	108.1	108.7	107.9	24	7-0
LA Rams	107.2	105.8	106.1	106.4	27	5-3
Seattle	102.6	102.4	102.5	102.5	25.5	7-1
Arizona	94.1	94.1	94.6	94.3	23	3-4-1

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1	New England
2	Indianapolis
3	Baltimore
4	Kansas City
5	Houston
6	Jacksonville
NFC Seeding
1	New Orleans
2	San Francisco
3	Green Bay
4	Dallas
5	Minnesota
6	LA Rams

 

Wildcard Round

Jacksonville over Baltimore

Houston over Kansas City

Green Bay over LA Rams

Minnesota over Dallas

Divisional Round

New England over Jacksonville

Indianapolis over Houston

New Orleans over Minnesota

San Francisco over Green Bay

Conference Championship

New England over Indianapolis

New Orleans over San Francisco

Super Bowl 54

New England over New Orleans

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 7: October 17-21, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Denver	Kansas City	-0.8	-0.9	-0.4
N.Y. Giants	Arizona	4.0	4.2	4.3
Indianapolis	Houston	-2.3	-1.7	-2.1
Buffalo	Miami	16.6	18.0	18.1
Detroit	Minnesota	-4.1	-3.1	-2.4
Green Bay	Oakland	9.7	9.5	9.2
Cincinnati	Jacksonville	-1.2	-1.8	-1.4
Atlanta	LA Rams	-5.8	-3.6	-3.7
Washington	San Francisco	-10.2	-10.5	-11.5
Tennessee	LA Chargers	1.4	1.5	2.2
Seattle	Baltimore	5.5	5.8	5.0
Chicago	New Orleans	2.3	2.0	2.1
Dallas	Philadelphia	-0.1	2.7	2.3
N.Y. Jets	New England	-13.0	-13.0	-13.7

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	109.3	110.4	109.9	109.9	21.5	6-0
Buffalo	99.8	101.2	100.8	100.6	18	4-1
N. Y. Jets	93.8	94.9	93.7	94.1	21.5	1-4
Miami	86.2	86.2	85.7	86.0	26	0-5
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	100.7	100.2	101.1	100.7	23	4-2
Cleveland	99.5	99.8	99.9	99.7	23.5	2-4
Pittsburgh	98.5	99.0	99.3	98.9	21.5	2-4
Cincinnati	94.4	94.2	94.8	94.5	24	0-6
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Houston	104.5	104.8	104.6	104.7	23	4-2
Indianapolis	99.2	100.1	99.5	99.6	22	3-2
Jacksonville	98.1	98.5	98.7	98.4	19	2-4
Tennessee	97.9	98.2	97.9	98.0	15	2-4
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	104.2	104.6	103.9	104.2	31	4-2
Denver	100.5	100.7	100.5	100.6	19.5	2-4
LA Chargers	99.5	99.7	98.7	99.3	21.5	2-4
Oakland	97.1	97.2	97.8	97.4	23.5	3-2
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Philadelphia	105.3	103.2	102.9	103.8	25.5	3-3
Dallas	102.2	102.9	102.2	102.4	20.5	3-3
N.Y. Giants	94.7	95.2	95.8	95.2	24.5	2-4
Washington	91.1	92.1	91.5	91.6	19	1-5
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	106.6	104.7	105.0	105.5	21.5	4-2
Green Bay	103.8	103.7	104.0	103.8	25	5-1
Chicago	105.9	102.5	102.9	103.8	19	3-2
Detroit	100.0	99.1	100.1	99.8	23	2-2-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	106.6	103.5	103.8	104.6	23.5	5-1
Carolina	102.0	102.2	103.0	102.4	24.5	4-2
Tampa Bay	95.6	97.9	98.3	97.3	28.5	2-4
Atlanta	96.5	97.0	96.4	96.6	27.5	1-5
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
San Francisco	104.3	105.6	106.0	105.3	23.5	5-0
LA Rams	105.3	103.6	103.7	104.2	28	3-3
Seattle	103.2	103.0	103.1	103.1	25.5	5-1
Arizona	93.7	94.0	94.5	94.1	23.5	2-3-1

 

Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1	New England
2	Houston
3	Kansas City
4	Baltimore
5	Buffalo
6	Indianapolis
NFC Seeding
1	San Francisco
2	New Orleans
3	Green Bay
4	Philadelphia
5	Seattle
6	Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round

Kansas City over Indianapolis

Buffalo over Baltimore

Green Bay over Minnesota

Seattle over Philadelphia

Divisional Round

New England over Buffalo

Houston over Kansas City

San Francisco over Seattle

New Orleans over Green Bay

Conference Championship

New England over Houston

San Francisco over New Orleans

Super Bowl 54

San Francisco over New England

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 6: October 10-14, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
New England	N. Y. Giants	17.1	17.6	16.1
Tampa Bay	Carolina	-3.1	-0.4	-0.6
Baltimore	Cincinnati	9.9	9.7	10.2
Cleveland	Seattle	-0.5	0.0	0.0
Kansas City	Houston	4.2	4.5	4.2
Jacksonville	New Orleans	-6.0	-2.1	-2.0
Minnesota	Philadelphia	2.1	2.1	2.6
Miami	Washington	-3.1	-4.5	-4.5
LA Rams	San Francisco	7.4	4.0	3.9
Arizona	Atlanta	0.2	0.0	1.2
N. Y. Jets	Dallas	-6.4	-6.2	-7.1
Denver	Tennessee	3.2	3.0	2.9
LA Chargers	Pittsburgh	5.7	5.7	4.4
Green Bay	Detroit	5.9	7.2	6.3

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

Home	Visitor	Total
New England	N. Y. Giants	46
Tampa Bay	Carolina	52
Baltimore	Cincinnati	47.5
Cleveland	Seattle	48
Kansas City	Houston	54
Jacksonville	New Orleans	44
Minnesota	Philadelphia	45
Miami	Washington	46.5
LA Rams	San Francisco	53
Arizona	Atlanta	48
N. Y. Jets	Dallas	42
Denver	Tennessee	36.5
LA Chargers	Pittsburgh	43
Green Bay	Detroit	48

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	109.0	110.1	109.4	109.5	21.5	5-0
Buffalo	99.5	100.9	100.5	100.3	18	4-1
N. Y. Jets	93.3	94.3	92.9	93.5	21.5	0-4
Miami	86.1	85.9	85.3	85.8	26.5	0-4
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	101.1	100.7	101.7	101.2	23	3-2
Cleveland	99.6	99.9	100.0	99.8	23	2-3
Pittsburgh	97.6	98.0	98.3	97.9	21.5	1-4
Cincinnati	94.3	94.0	94.5	94.3	24.5	0-5
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Houston	103.9	104.1	103.8	104.0	23	3-2
Tennessee	99.3	99.7	99.5	99.5	16.5	2-3
Indianapolis	98.9	99.8	99.2	99.3	22	3-2
Jacksonville	98.1	98.7	99.0	98.6	20	2-3
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	105.1	105.6	105.0	105.2	31	4-1
LA Chargers	100.9	101.2	100.2	100.7	21.5	2-3
Denver	99.6	99.7	99.4	99.6	20	1-4
Oakland	96.8	96.9	97.5	97.1	23.5	3-2
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Philadelphia	106.1	104.1	103.9	104.7	24.5	3-2
Dallas	102.7	103.5	103.0	103.1	20.5	3-2
N.Y. Giants	95.0	95.5	96.3	95.6	24.5	2-3
Washington	91.7	92.9	92.4	92.3	20	0-5
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	105.2	103.2	103.4	104.0	20.5	3-2
Green Bay	103.5	103.6	103.8	103.6	25	4-1
Chicago	105.6	102.2	102.6	103.5	19	3-2
Detroit	100.0	98.9	100.0	99.7	23	2-1-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	106.6	103.3	103.5	104.5	24	4-1
Carolina	101.6	101.5	102.2	101.8	24	3-2
Tampa Bay	96.0	98.6	99.1	97.9	28	2-3
Atlanta	96.5	97.0	96.4	96.6	26	1-4
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	107.0	105.1	105.3	105.8	29	3-2
San Francisco	102.6	104.1	104.4	103.7	24	4-0
Seattle	103.1	102.9	103.0	103.0	25	4-1
Arizona	93.7	94.0	94.5	94.1	22	1-3-1

 

Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1	New England
2	Kansas City
3	Houston
4	Baltimore
5	Indianapolis
6	Buffalo

NFC Seeding
1	San Francisco
2	New Orleans
3	Green Bay
4	Philadelphia
5	Seattle
6	Minnesota

Wildcard Round

Buffalo over Houston

Indianapolis over Baltimore

Green Bay over Minnesota

Philadelphia over Seattle

Divisional Round

New England over Buffalo

Kansas City over Indianapolis

Philadelphia over San Francisco

New Orleans over Green Bay

Conference Championship

New England over Kansas City

New Orleans over Philadelphia

Super Bowl 54

New England over New Orleans

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 5: October 3-7, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

 

Margins

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Seattle	LA Rams	-1.1	0.8	0.7
Pittsburgh	Baltimore	-1.0	-0.3	-0.9
Oakland (n)	Chicago	-10.6	-7.1	-6.8
Cincinnati	Arizona	5.3	4.7	4.9
Carolina	Jacksonville	6.5	5.7	6.2
N.Y. Giants	Minnesota	-5.1	-2.0	-1.0
Washington	New England	-12.7	-12.3	-11.9
Philadelphia	N.Y. Jets	12.2	8.7	9.9
New Orleans	Tampa Bay	14.2	7.7	7.4
Houston	Atlanta	7.5	6.7	6.8
Tennessee	Buffalo	5.5	4.6	5.1
LA Chargers	Denver	6.6	7.0	6.5
Dallas	Green Bay	5.2	6.0	5.5
Kansas City	Indianapolis	12.5	12.3	12.5
San Francisco	Cleveland	1.5	2.6	2.7

 

Totals

Home	Visitor	Total
Seattle	LA Rams	53
Pittsburgh	Baltimore	44.5
Oakland (n)	Chicago	42.5
Cincinnati	Arizona	46.5
Carolina	Jacksonville	42
N.Y. Giants	Minnesota	45.5
Washington	New England	41.5
Philadelphia	N.Y. Jets	47
New Orleans	Tampa Bay	52
Houston	Atlanta	46
Tennessee	Buffalo	36
LA Chargers	Denver	42.5
Dallas	Green Bay	44.5
Kansas City	Indianapolis	54.5
San Francisco	Cleveland	48

 

(n)–Oakland vs. Chicago game played in London

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	108.1	109.1	108.3	108.5	21.5	4-0
Buffalo	97.9	99.3	98.7	98.6	18.5	3-1
N. Y. Jets	94.7	96.0	94.6	95.1	22.5	0-3
Miami	85.8	85.6	85.0	85.5	26.5	0-4
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Cleveland	101.7	102.0	102.2	102.0	23.5	2-2
Baltimore	101.1	100.7	101.7	101.2	23	2-2
Pittsburgh	97.6	98.0	98.3	97.9	21.5	1-3
Cincinnati	95.4	95.1	95.7	95.4	24.5	0-4
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Houston	102.7	102.7	102.3	102.6	21.5	2-2
Tennessee	100.4	100.8	100.8	100.7	17.5	2-2
Jacksonville	98.1	98.8	99.0	98.6	19	2-2
Indianapolis	97.1	97.9	97.2	97.4	23	2-2
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	106.6	107.2	106.7	106.8	31.5	4-0
LA Chargers	102.5	102.9	102.0	102.4	22	2-2
Denver	98.4	98.4	98.0	98.3	20.5	0-4
Oakland	95.7	95.9	96.5	96.0	23.5	2-2
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	103.9	104.8	104.4	104.4	20	3-1
Philadelphia	105.0	102.7	102.5	103.4	24.5	2-2
N.Y. Giants	96.2	97.0	98.0	97.1	24.5	2-2
Washington	93.0	94.3	93.9	93.7	20	0-4
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Chicago	106.4	102.9	103.3	104.2	19	3-1
Minnesota	104.3	102.0	102.0	102.8	21	2-2
Green Bay	101.8	101.8	101.9	101.8	24.5	3-1
Detroit	99.7	98.6	99.7	99.4	23	2-1-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	106.9	103.3	103.5	104.6	24	3-1
Carolina	101.6	101.4	102.2	101.7	23	2-2
Atlanta	98.3	99.0	98.5	98.6	24.5	1-3
Tampa Bay	95.7	98.6	99.1	97.8	28	2-2
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	107.1	105.1	105.3	105.8	28.5	3-1
Seattle	103.0	102.9	103.0	103.0	24.5	3-1
San Francisco	100.2	101.7	101.9	101.3	24.5	3-0
Arizona	93.1	93.4	93.8	93.4	22	0-3-1

 

Playoff Projections

 

AFC Seeding
1	New England
2	Kansas City
3	Cleveland
4	Jacksonville
5	Buffalo
6	LA Chargers
NFC Seeding
1	Seattle
2	New Orleans
3	Chicago
4	Philadelphia
5	LA Rams
6	Green Bay

 

Wildcard Round

LA Chargers over Cleveland

Buffalo over Jacksonville

Chicago over Green Bay

LA Rams over Philadelphia

Divisional Round

New England over LA Chargers

Kansas City over Buffalo

LA Rams over Seattle

Chicago over New Orleans

Conference Championship

Kansas City over New England

Chicago over LA Rams

Super Bowl 53

Kansas City over Chicago

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 4: September 26-30, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

 

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Total
Green Bay	Philadelphia	0.7	3.6	4.1	47
Houston	Carolina	5.5	5.9	4.7	45.5
Baltimore	Cleveland	4.6	3.8	5.0	45
N.Y. Giants	Washington	2.4	1.9	2.9	46.5
Miami	LA Chargers	-13.0	-13.4	-12.8	49.5
Indianapolis	Oakland	6.1	6.9	5.8	45
Detroit	Kansas City	-4.2	-6.3	-4.6	52.5
Buffalo	New England	-8.2	-8.0	-8.0	41
Atlanta	Tennessee	3.9	4.7	4.2	44
LA Rams	Tampa Bay	18.3	13.0	12.9	53.5
Arizona	Seattle	-5.1	-4.4	-3.8	48
Chicago	Minnesota	4.4	2.8	3.0	42
Denver	Jacksonville	4.3	3.6	3.0	38
New Orleans	Dallas	5.9	1.0	1.6	45.5
Pittsburgh	Cincinnati	1.5	1.9	1.5	47.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	108.5	109.6	108.9	109.0	22	3-0
Buffalo	97.8	99.1	98.4	98.4	19	3-0
N. Y. Jets	94.4	95.7	94.3	94.8	22.5	0-3
Miami	86.3	86.2	85.7	86.1	27	0-3
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	102.3	101.9	103.1	102.5	22.5	2-1
Cleveland	100.8	101.1	101.1	101.0	22.5	1-2
Cincinnati	97.0	96.8	97.5	97.1	25.5	0-3
Pittsburgh	96.0	96.3	96.5	96.2	22	0-3
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Houston	103.4	103.5	103.1	103.4	22	2-1
Tennessee	99.0	99.2	99.2	99.1	18	1-2
Indianapolis	98.1	99.0	98.4	98.5	22.5	2-1
Jacksonville	97.6	98.3	98.5	98.1	18	1-2
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	106.6	107.4	106.9	107.0	31	3-0
LA Chargers	102.3	102.6	101.6	102.1	22.5	1-2
Denver	98.9	98.9	98.5	98.8	20	0-3
Oakland	95.0	95.1	95.6	95.2	22.5	1-2
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	103.7	104.8	104.4	104.3	20.5	3-0
Philadelphia	104.4	101.8	101.5	102.5	23.5	1-2
Washington	94.7	96.0	95.8	95.5	21.5	0-3
N.Y. Giants	94.6	95.4	96.2	95.4	25	1-2
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Chicago	106.2	102.5	102.8	103.8	20.5	2-1
Minnesota	104.8	102.7	102.8	103.5	21.5	2-1
Green Bay	102.1	102.4	102.6	102.4	23.5	3-0
Detroit	99.4	98.1	99.2	98.9	21.5	2-0-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	107.1	103.3	103.5	104.6	25	2-1
Carolina	100.9	100.6	101.4	101.0	23.5	1-2
Atlanta	100.0	100.9	100.4	100.4	26	1-2
Tampa Bay	93.4	96.5	96.9	95.6	27	1-2
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	108.7	106.5	106.8	107.3	26.5	3-0
Seattle	102.1	101.9	101.8	101.9	25	2-1
San Francisco	99.9	101.4	101.6	101.0	24.5	3-0
Arizona	94.0	94.4	95.0	94.5	23	0-2-1

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

 

AFC Seeding
1	New England
2	Kansas City
3	Baltimore
4	Indianapolis
5	Buffalo
6	Houston

 

NFC Seeding
1	LA Rams
2	Dallas
3	Green Bay
4	New Orleans
5	Minnesota
6	San Francisco

 

Wildcard Round

Houston over Baltimore

Indianapolis over Buffalo

Green Bay over San Francisco

New Orleans over Minnesota

Divisional Round

New England over Houston

Kansas City over Indianapolis

LA Rams over New Orleans

Green Bay over Dallas

Conference Championship

New England over Kansas City

LA Rams over Green Bay

Super Bowl 53

New England over LA Rams

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–October 13-17, 2016

Replayicide

A third consecutive winning week was practically in the bag thanks to a great Sunday comeback. Yes, a terrific 84.7% return on our investment was ours, as Joe Flacco guided the Baltimore Ravens on a fourth quarter comeback to defeat the Washington Redskins, allowing the PiRates to cash in on a really nice +199 parlay.

As Lee Corso says, “Not so fast my friends.” All scoring plays are reviewed. Breshad Perriman appeared to have both feet inbounds in real time with his heel of his second foot hitting green turf, but the instant replay told a different story, and by the distance of a few blades of grass, a big payoff turned into a 15% loss on our investment. Oh well, at least they are imaginary dollars, so we didn’t really lose anything but a little self-pride.

One good thing about doing this exercise just for fun is that you don’t become gun shy when you miss on a big payoff like this, and you don’t have to worry about trying to catch up after a loss or sustain any success; you just select the next week’s games as if the new week is in a vacuum.
We have chosen four new selections this week, three from college and one NFL. This is a strange season for the NFL, so we are lessening our amount of pro plays.

Enjoy these selections, but remember, we highly encourage you not to use them to wager real coin, currency, or plastic on them.

October 13-17, 2016

1. College Parlay @ +157
Idaho over New Mexico St.
Marshall over Florida Atlantic
Florida over Missouri
Georgia over Vanderbilt

We like the job Paul Petrino has done at Idaho and expect the Vandals to win in the Palouse this week; considering that this program has announced that they will leave FBS football to return to FCS and the Big Sky Conference in 2018, Petrino could be on the radar screen of other FBS schools should Idaho make it to 6-6 or better this year. Maybe, this year is their last-gasp effort to sneak into a bowl for the first and possibly last time since 2009 and only the third time ever. Here’s a bit of trivia for you: Idaho was once a member of what is the Pac-12 Conference today. From1922 to 1959, the Vandals were in the same league as USC, UCLA, Cal, Oregon, and Stanford. The Idaho-Washington St. rivalry remains strong since the two schools are within walking distance of each other.

Marshall is off to its weakest start in the Doc Holliday tenure, but the Herd should begin to thunder this week against FAU. The Owls lost at Charlotte last week, and Coach Charlie Partridge will be doing his cooing from another pear tree next year.

Florida and Missouri both had last Saturday off, with the Gators’ bye week coming unexpectedly. The good news for Florida was that by watching the most recent game film of the team they were supposed to play last week (LSU), they just happened to watch this week’s opponent. We think the Gators win a rather dull, low-scoring affair in the 14-10 range.

Georgia has not looked brilliant for 60 minutes in any game this year, but even playing 20 minutes brilliantly this week should be enough to win over a Vanderbilt team that is “0 for” on the road in the SEC under Coach Derek Mason and has no passing game.

2. College Parlay @ +192
Arkansas St. over South Alabama
Ohio St. over Wisconsin
Ball St. over Buffalo
Memphis over Tulane

Arkansas State might replicate what Texas A&M did in 1967. The Red Wolves began the season 0-4 and could run the table after that start. South Alabama is a team that gets up for big-time opponents and seems to not show up against opponents not considered big-time.

Wisconsin’s incredibly difficult schedule is about to come down hard in Badgerland. After losing at Michigan, we expect Ohio State to make the home team fans a bit sad as they exit Camp Randall Stadium Saturday. There is an issue of team speed in this game, and UW will eventually succumb to it.

Ball State is on the cusp of being a rather decent team in MAC football, but they are not there yet. However, this Buffalo team is at the bottom of the league, and they lost at home to Kent State last week. The Cardinals look to pick up their biggest point differential win of the season.

Memphis will have a tough time in New Orleans on Saturday, as Tulane is one of those pesky teams that opponents do not enjoy playing. First-year Green Wave coach Willie Fritz is known for his unique style of multiple option running and play-action passing plays, and his offense is eating up the clock with a true freshman quarterback guiding it, but it is the TU defense that is really getting the job done. It just goes to show that the best defense in football is a good time-consuming offense. Still, it is asking a bit too much to expect a green Green Wave squad to upset a team that thinks they can now win the West Division of the AAC.

3. College Parlay @ +172
Florida Int’l. over Charlotte
Ohio U over Eastern Michigan
BYU over Mississippi St.

Ron Turner has been in this boat before. When he coached at Illinois, Turner endured some lean seasons with just two wins, before surprising the nation with a trip to the Rose Bowl and upset of top-ranked Ohio State. Turner has slowly improved FIU from one to four to five wins in his three years in Miami, and the Panthers now could contend for a minor bowl. In order to do so, they have to beat a Charlotte team that just gained a little confidence with their first ever CUSA win last week. We expect FIU to win by at least 10-14 points.

Frank Solich has the Ohio Bobcats in the driver’s seat to win the MAC East this year, as his chief competition, Akron, has a tougher conference schedule, and the season finale between the two is in Athens. The Bobcats respect this EMU team, because this Eagles’ team is 4-2 and thinks it is going to win two more games this year. It was a tough choice, but we sided with OU in this game.

Mississippi State appears to be the 13th best team in the SEC this year, and the Bulldogs already have a home out-of-conference loss to South Alabama. Having to travel to Utah to face a BYU team that is about two touchdowns better today than they were at the start of the season means another loss for the SEC school.

4. NFL Parlay @ +220
New England over Cincinnati
Buffalo over San Francisco
Oakland over Kansas City

Do you expect Tom Brady to lose to anybody in his home debut? We’d go with the Pats to beat the NFC Pro Bowl team this week. Cincinnati could be out of the playoff race after this week, and Marvin Lewis could be in jeopardy of losing his job if the Bengals fall to third in the AFC North.

San Francisco must travel almost 3,000 to the Ontario border to face a mean Buffalo team that has turned things around since their Monday Night debacle against the Jets. Colin Kaepernick will get his first start, and we would not be surprised if subconsciously, the officials see an extra penalty here or there that costs the 49ers a crucial first down. Rex Ryan can sniff playoffs with this Bills’ team. It’s been a very long dry spell for Buffalo, even longer than the Raiders’ dry spell, and a win Sunday puts Buffalo at 4-2.

If you haven’t read our NFL preview from Tuesday, you should read what we had to write about the Oakland – Kansas City rivalry.

Link: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2016/10/11/nfl-ratings-and-spreads-for-week-5-october-13-17-2016/

This game promises to be one of the best between these two franchises since the old Daryle Lamonica vs. Len Dawson days. The game even shapes up to play like it was from 1968–Oakland has the wide-open high-octane offense and some big play defensive stars, while Kansas City has the better ball-control offense to go with a top-flight defense. All that will be missing is the odd characters like Ben Davidson, Buck Buchanan, Fred Williamson, and Fred Biletnikoff, who wore shoulder pads about as thick as tissue paper and used enough Stickem that he could catch a pass without using his fingers.

PiRate Ratings NFL Conference Champion Game Previews–January 19, 2014

NFL Conference Championship Playoff TV Schedule

Day	Time (ET)	Game	TV	Radio
Sunday, January 19	3:00 PM	New England @ Denver	CBS	Westwood 1
Sunday, January 19	6:30 PM	San Francisco @ Seattle	Fox	Westwood 1
To find a local Westwood 1 radio affiliate, check this link:
http://westwoodonesports.com/stations/

Weather Forecasts For Kickoff and Next 3-4 hours

Seattle—Mostly cloudy with virtually no wind.  Temperatures falling from the upper to the lower 40’s during the game.

 

 

Denver—Incredibly beautiful, Spring-like afternoon.  Temperatures starting in the upper 50’s with plentiful sunshine.  Light winds, and temperatures will fall to around 50 by the end of the game.

 

 

PiRate Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Seattle	San Francisco	1.9	1.9	1.9
Denver	New England	4.8	6.6	5.2

 

Computer Simulations (100x)

San Francisco at Seattle

San Francisco wins: 54

Seattle wins: 46

Average Margin: San Francisco 22.1  Seattle 20.7 

SF Outlier Win: 31-10

Sea Outlier Win: 24-3

 

New England at Denver

NE Wins: 53

Denver Wins: 47

Average Margin: New England 27.9  Denver 27.6

NE Outlier Win: 41-24

Den Outlier Win: 34-16

 

This is potentially the best pair of conference championship games since 2001-02.