PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, February 13, 2022

Home	Visitors	Spread
St. John’s	Connecticut	-3.7
Youngstown St.	Robert Morris	7.4
Wright St.	Northern Kentucky	5.2
Purdue	Maryland	14.8
Maine	Stony Brook	-8.0
Oakland	Detroit	6.4
Iona	Monmouth	7.5
Rider	Siena	2.3
Illinois	Northwestern	9.8
Old Dominion	UAB	-10.4
Milwaukee	Green Bay	3.7
Quinnipiac	Manhattan	4.8
Iowa	Nebraska	16.9
UTEP	Marshall	6.8
Middle Tennessee	Charlotte	5.9
UNC Greensboro	Mercer	5.1
Boise St.	Colorado St.	3.8
Loyola (Chi.)	Northern Iowa	8.2

Coming Tomorrow: Updated ratings in the morning and updated Bracketology in the afternoon.

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 17: December 29, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

 

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Baltimore	Pittsburgh	13.8	13.6	14.0
Buffalo	N.Y. Jets	8.3	8.6	9.4
Carolina	New Orleans	-14.7	-13.4	-13.7
Cincinnati	Cleveland	-4.1	-4.5	-4.3
Dallas	Washington	16.0	15.4	15.5
Detroit	Green Bay	-7.2	-8.7	-9.2
Houston	Tennessee	1.4	1.7	1.7
Jacksonville	Indianapolis	-7.8	-8.5	-8.0
Kansas City	LA Chargers	9.2	10.2	10.9
Minnesota	Chicago	6.7	7.8	8.0
New England	Miami	21.7	22.0	21.6
N. Y. Giants	Philadelphia	-7.2	-5.7	-5.0
Tampa Bay	Atlanta	1.5	2.5	2.9
Denver	Oakland	7.1	7.6	7.3
LA Rams	Arizona	9.4	8.3	8.1
Seattle	San Francisco	-3.0	-3.9	-3.9

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

 

Home	Visitor	Total
Baltimore	Pittsburgh	44
Buffalo	N.Y. Jets	38
Carolina	New Orleans	53
Cincinnati	Cleveland	47.5
Dallas	Washington	41.5
Detroit	Green Bay	47.5
Houston	Tennessee	45
Jacksonville	Indianapolis	41
Kansas City	LA Chargers	51.5
Minnesota	Chicago	38.5
New England	Miami	48
N. Y. Giants	Philadelphia	49
Tampa Bay	Atlanta	55.5
Denver	Oakland	44.5
LA Rams	Arizona	51
Seattle	San Francisco	49.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	108.0	108.7	108.2	108.3	19.5	12-3
Buffalo	102.0	103.0	103.0	102.7	17	10-5
N. Y. Jets	94.7	95.4	94.6	94.9	21	6-9
Miami	89.4	89.7	89.6	89.6	28.5	4-11
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	111.7	111.9	112.7	112.1	25	13-2
Pittsburgh	98.9	99.4	99.7	99.3	19	8-7
Cleveland	97.8	97.9	97.8	97.8	24	6-9
Cincinnati	92.7	92.4	92.5	92.5	23.5	1-14
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Houston	102.2	102.7	102.7	102.6	23.5	10-5
Tennessee	101.8	102.0	102.0	101.9	21.5	8-7
Indianapolis	100.1	100.9	100.3	100.4	23	7-8
Jacksonville	91.3	91.4	91.3	91.3	18	5-10
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	107.0	107.7	107.7	107.5	29.5	11-4
LA Chargers	100.4	100.0	99.3	99.9	22	5-10
Denver	99.0	99.3	99.1	99.1	19	6-9
Oakland	92.8	92.7	92.8	92.8	25.5	7-8
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	104.2	104.3	103.9	104.1	22	7-8
Philadelphia	101.9	100.7	100.5	101.0	23.5	8-7
N.Y. Giants	93.7	94.0	94.4	94.0	25.5	4-11
Washington	91.3	91.9	91.4	91.5	19.5	3-12
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	106.8	105.7	105.8	106.1	21.5	10-5
Green Bay	103.8	103.8	104.2	103.9	24	12-3
Chicago	101.1	98.9	98.8	99.6	17	7-8
Detroit	95.0	93.6	93.5	94.1	23.5	3-11-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	108.7	107.2	107.7	107.9	27	12-3
Tampa Bay	101.1	102.3	102.6	102.0	29.5	7-8
Atlanta	100.6	100.8	100.7	100.7	26	6-9
Carolina	93.0	92.8	93.0	92.9	26	5-10
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
San Francisco	107.2	107.9	108.1	107.7	26	12-3
LA Rams	104.5	103.6	104.0	104.0	26.5	8-7
Seattle	101.2	101.0	101.2	101.1	23.5	11-4
Arizona	96.1	96.3	96.9	96.4	24.5	5-9-1

 

 

 

Week 17 Playoff Scenarios

 

NFC

If San Francisco, New Orleans, and Green Bay all win, San Francisco is  the #1 seed, Green Bay the #2 seed, and New Orleans the #3 seed.

If Seattle beats San Francisco, then Green Bay will get #1 seed with win over Detroit.

If Seattle beats San Francisco, and Detroit beats Green Bay, then New Orleans gets #1 seed with a win over Carolina.

If Seatlle beats San Francisco, and Green Bay and New Orleans lose, Seattle gets the #1 seed.

Philadelphia wins the NFC East with a win over the Giants or a Dallas loss to Washington. Any ties in the standings would go to Dallas.

Minnesota is #6 seed regardless of week 17 results.

 

AFC

Houston has clinched the #1 seed in the AFC

New England clinches the #2 seed with a win over Miami or a Kansas City loss to the Chargers.

Houston can pass Kansas City for the #3 seed with a win over Tennessee and a loss by Kansas City.

Buffalo is the #5 seed regardless of week 17 results.

Tennessee wins the #6 seed if they beat Houston, or with a loss with Pittsburgh losing to Baltimore while both Oakland and Indianapolis do not win.

Pittsburgh wins the #6 seed only if they win and the Titans lose.

Oakland can clinch the #6 seed with a win over Denver, plus losses by Tennessee and Pittsburgh and Indianapolis beating Jacksonville.

 

PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

 

What are the chances that the Oakland Raiders, in their last season playing in Oakland, could sneak into the NFL Playoffs?  It ranges from + or – 10-15% depending on which advanced metric expert you listen to.  We’re sabermetric experts that do not perform these type of metrics on pro football.

The way we look at things, Baltimore has nothing to gain this week against Pittsburgh in their season finale.  Their key players should play little or not at all.  Can the Steelers with poor quarterback play rise up and beat the Ravens’ reserves if they couldn’t beat the Jets last week?

Tennessee has now dropped two games in a row to playoff teams in Houston and New Orleans, both at home.  Houston may have a chance to move up to a #3 seed if Kansas City is upset earlier in the day.  

Oakland closes out regular season play at Denver, where the Broncos have nothing to play for in Week 17.

Indianapolis is playing solely to get to 8-8, while Jacksonville has nothing to play for in Week 17.

We think Oakland’s chances to sneak in as the final playoff team is considerably better than 15%.  In fact, just because it would make such a great story, we are going to select the Raiders as our 6th seed to set up a probably Oakland finale against their most hated rivals.

 

AFC Seeding
1	Baltimore
2	New England
3	Kansas City
4	Houston
5	Buffalo
6	Oakland
NFC Seeding
1	Green Bay
2	New Orleans
3	Seattle
4	Philadelphia
5	San Francisco
6	Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round

Kansas City over Oakland

Buffalo over Houston

Minnesota over Seattle

San Francisco over Philadelphia

Divisional Round

Buffalo over Baltimore

Kansas City over New England

Green Bay over Minnesota

New Orleans over San Francisco

Conference Championship

Kansas City over Buffalo

New Orleans over Green Bay

Super Bowl 54

New Orleans over Kansas City

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 12: November 21-25, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Margins

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Houston	Indianapolis	4.5	3.9	3.9
Cleveland	Miami	15.1	15.1	15.5
Buffalo	Denver	2.5	3.4	3.2
Cincinnati	Pittsburgh	-5.0	-5.6	-5.7
Chicago	N.Y. Giants	12.9	9.6	9.4
N.Y. Jets	Oakland	-1.0	-0.1	-1.8
New Orleans	Carolina	13.1	10.8	10.9
Atlanta	Tampa Bay	6.5	5.0	4.3
Washington	Detroit	-6.3	-4.3	-5.3
Tennessee	Jacksonville	4.0	4.1	3.5
New England	Dallas	7.1	7.5	7.5
San Francisco	Green Bay	5.4	6.2	6.2
Philadelphia	Seattle	5.5	3.9	3.4
LA Rams	Baltimore	1.4	0.1	-0.7

 

Totals

Home	Visitor	Total
Houston	Indianapolis	45
Cleveland	Miami	48.5
Buffalo	Denver	36
Cincinnati	Pittsburgh	44
Chicago	N.Y. Giants	43.5
N.Y. Jets	Oakland	46.5
New Orleans	Carolina	48.5
Atlanta	Tampa Bay	55
Washington	Detroit	43.5
Tennessee	Jacksonville	36
New England	Dallas	43
San Francisco	Green Bay	49.5
Philadelphia	Seattle	50.5
LA Rams	Baltimore	50.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	109.6	110.5	110.2	110.1	21	9-1
Buffalo	98.9	100.0	99.6	99.5	17.5	7-3
N. Y. Jets	93.3	94.2	93.1	93.5	21.5	3-7
Miami	87.5	87.8	87.5	87.6	26	2-8
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	108.1	108.1	109.2	108.5	25	8-2
Cleveland	99.6	99.9	100.0	99.8	22.5	4-6
Pittsburgh	99.2	99.6	99.9	99.5	20.5	5-5
Cincinnati	91.7	91.4	91.7	91.6	23.5	0-10
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Houston	102.4	102.6	102.3	102.5	23	6-4
Indianapolis	100.9	101.8	101.4	101.4	22	6-4
Tennessee	98.0	98.3	97.9	98.1	17.5	5-5
Jacksonville	97.0	97.3	97.4	97.2	18.5	4-6
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	100.4	100.9	100.5	100.6	31	7-4
LA Chargers	100.8	100.6	100.0	100.4	21	4-7
Denver	99.4	99.6	99.4	99.5	18.5	3-7
Oakland	97.3	97.3	97.9	97.5	25	6-4
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	105.5	106.0	105.7	105.7	22	6-4
Philadelphia	105.2	103.6	103.3	104.0	24.5	5-5
N.Y. Giants	92.8	93.1	93.3	93.1	26	2-8
Washington	89.5	90.2	89.6	89.8	18	1-9
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	106.6	105.2	105.5	105.8	23	8-3
Green Bay	103.6	103.7	104.0	103.8	25	8-2
Chicago	103.2	100.2	100.2	101.2	17.5	4-6
Detroit	98.7	97.5	97.8	98.0	25.5	3-6-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	107.9	105.7	106.1	106.6	24	8-2
Atlanta	99.3	99.5	99.1	99.3	25.5	3-7
Carolina	97.8	97.9	98.2	98.0	24.5	5-5
Tampa Bay	95.8	97.5	97.8	97.0	29.5	3-7
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
San Francisco	106.0	106.9	107.2	106.7	24.5	9-1
LA Rams	106.6	105.2	105.5	105.8	25.5	6-4
Seattle	102.7	102.7	102.9	102.8	26	8-2
Arizona	94.7	95.1	95.8	95.2	24	3-7-1

 

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1	Baltimore
2	New England
3	Indianapolis
4	Oakland
5	Buffalo
6	Kansas City
NFC Seeding
1	San Francisco
2	Green Bay
3	New Orleans
4	Dallas
5	Seattle
6	Minnesota

Wildcard Round

Kansas City over Indianapolis

Oakland over Buffalo

New Orleans over Minnesota

Seattle over Dallas

Divisional Round

Kansas City over Baltimore

Oakland over New England

Seattle over San Francisco

Green Bay over New Orleans

Conference Championship

Oakland over Kansas City

Green Bay over Seattle

Super Bowl 54

Oakland over Green Bay

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 11: November 14-18, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

 

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Cleveland	Pittsburgh	2.9	2.7	2.2
Carolina	Atlanta	7.2	7.2	8.3
Detroit	Dallas	-3.7	-5.4	-4.4
Indianapolis	Jacksonville	4.2	4.6	3.9
Miami	Buffalo	-8.0	-8.4	-8.2
Baltimore	Houston	3.3	2.9	4.1
Minnesota	Denver	10.5	8.9	9.4
Washington	N.Y. Jets	1.9	2.1	2.7
Tampa Bay	New Orleans	-8.2	-3.7	-3.6
San Francisco	Arizona	14.2	14.6	14.3
Oakland	Cincinnati	8.9	9.2	9.6
Philadelphia	New England	-1.0	-3.6	-3.4
LA Rams	Chicago	5.9	7.5	7.6
LA Chargers (n)	Kansas City	1.4	1.0	1.0

Chargers – Chiefs game will be played in Mexico City

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	109.5	110.5	110.1	110.0	21.5	8-1
Buffalo	98.4	99.4	98.9	98.9	17	6-3
N. Y. Jets	91.8	92.6	91.4	91.9	21	2-7
Miami	88.0	88.4	88.2	88.2	25.5	2-7
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	105.1	105.0	106.0	105.4	25	7-2
Pittsburgh	99.7	100.2	100.6	100.1	21	5-4
Cleveland	99.6	99.8	99.8	99.7	23	3-6
Cincinnati	91.6	91.2	91.5	91.4	24	0-9
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Houston	104.8	105.1	104.9	105.0	23	6-3
Indianapolis	99.4	100.2	99.7	99.8	22	5-4
Jacksonville	98.2	98.6	98.8	98.5	18.5	4-5
Tennessee	97.7	98.0	97.6	97.8	17.5	5-5
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Chargers	101.5	101.4	100.9	101.2	21.5	4-6
Kansas City	100.0	100.4	99.9	100.1	31.5	6-4
Denver	99.4	99.6	99.4	99.5	18	3-6
Oakland	97.4	97.5	98.1	97.7	25.5	5-4
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	105.1	105.6	105.1	105.3	21.5	5-4
Philadelphia	105.6	103.9	103.7	104.4	25	5-4
N.Y. Giants	92.5	92.8	93.0	92.8	26	2-8
Washington	91.3	92.1	91.6	91.7	17.5	1-8
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	106.9	105.5	105.8	106.1	22.5	7-3
Green Bay	103.3	103.4	103.7	103.5	25	8-2
Chicago	103.6	100.6	100.7	101.6	18	4-5
Detroit	98.9	97.7	98.2	98.3	25	3-5-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	107.6	105.1	105.4	106.0	24	7-2
Carolina	100.6	100.8	101.3	100.9	25	5-4
Tampa Bay	96.4	98.4	98.8	97.9	29.5	3-6
Atlanta	96.5	96.6	96.0	96.3	26	2-7
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
San Francisco	106.2	107.1	107.4	106.9	24	8-1
LA Rams	106.5	105.1	105.3	105.6	26	5-4
Seattle	102.4	102.4	102.6	102.5	26	8-2
Arizona	94.5	94.9	95.6	95.0	23.5	3-6-1

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

 

AFC Seeding
1	New England
2	Baltimore
3	Houston
4	Oakland
5	Pittsburgh
6	Kansas City
NFC Seeding
1	Seattle
2	Green Bay
3	New Orleans
4	Philadelphia
5	San Francisco
6	Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round

Houston over Kansas City

Pittsburgh over Oakland

New Orleans over Minnesota

San Francisco over Philadelphia

Divisional Round

New England over Pittsburgh

Baltimore over Houston

Seattle over San Francisco

Green Bay over New Orleans

Conference Championship

New England over Baltimore

Seattle over Green Bay

Super Bowl 54

Seattle over New England

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Picks For October 17-21, 2019

Hooray, Hooray!  Maybe our little ditty we recited at the beginning of last week’s picks really worked!  That ditty went this way, “Yuck, Yuck, Yuck, I want more luck!”  It has to do with a childhood saying, and it worked then and apparently worked last week.

Both our PiRate Picks and Experimental Davey19 picks won.  The PiRate Picks enjoyed a windfall weekend with big wins.  Another 6 or 7 weeks in a row just like this, and we might even get back to level in our imaginary bank accounts.

While we have been trying to issue our money line parlay picks on Friday, we have a Thursday night game that is included in our selections, we have to issue those picks today as well.

Remember, the PiRates never wager real money on the outcomes of these games, and we also remind you that you frequently get what you pay for, and this is totally free.

 

PiRate Ratings Picks

 

10-point Teasers, 3 Game Parlays

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Louisiana	Arkansas St.	17	Arkansas St.
Ohio	Kent St.	17.5	Kent St.
Utah St.	Nevada	31	Nevada

 

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
California	Oregon St.	21	Oregon St.
Washington	Oregon	7	Oregon
South Carolina	Florida	15.5	Florida

 

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Louisiana Tech	Southern Miss.	9	Southern Miss.
Auburn	Arkansas	29	Arkansas
Virginia Tech	North Carolina	13.5	North Carolina

 

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Iowa St.	Texas Tech	17	Texas Tech
Rice	UTSA	14.5	UTSA
SMU	Temple	17.5	Temple

 

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Denver	Kansas City	7	Kansas City
N.Y. Giants	Arizona	13	Arizona
Houston	Indianapolis	10	Indianapolis

 

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Minnesota	Detroit	11	Detroit
Green Bay	Oakland	15.5	Oakland
LA Rams	Atlanta	13	Atlanta

 

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Seattle	Baltimore	13	Baltimore
Philadelphia	Dallas	7	Dallas
New England	N.Y. Jets	20.5	N.Y. Jets

 

 

Money Line Parlays

 

All 3-game parlays 

 

WIN	LOSE	Spread
Oregon	Washington
Penn St.	Michigan	+188
Western Ky.	Charlotte

 

 

WIN	LOSE	Spread
North Carolina	Virginia Tech
Western Mich.	Eastern Mich.	+193
Boise St.	BYU

 

 

WIN	LOSE	Spread
Stanford	UCLA
Florida	South Carolina	+224
Georgia Southern	Coastal Carolina

 

Davey19 Experimental Picks

 

Margins Plays

Pick	Opponent	Spread
Kent St.	Ohio	+7.5
Boise St.	BYU	-6.5
Oregon	Washington	-2.5
Florida	South Carolina	-4.5
North Carolina	Va Tech	-3
Hawaii	AFA	+3
Houston	Indianapolis	+1
Oakland	Green Bay	+5.5
Washington	San Francisco	+10.5
LA Chargers	Tennessee	+2.5

 

Totals Plays

 

Team	Team	Total	Pick
UCLA	Stanford	52.5	Under
Georgia Tech	Miami (Fla.)	46	Under
Florida St.	Wake Forest	69	Under
North Carolina	Virginia Tech	57	Under
Tennessee	LA Chargers	40	Under

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 3: September 21-25, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Score
San Francisco	LA Rams	3.8	3.3	3.9	41
Jacksonville (London)	Baltimore	-7.9	-7.8	-8.2	41
Indianapolis	Cleveland	3.0	2.9	2.3	46
Chicago	Pittsburgh	-10.5	-10.3	-10.8	43
N. Y. Jets	Miami	-5.4	-6.1	-5.3	44
Buffalo	Denver	-4.1	-2.4	-4.4	41
New England	Houston	12.0	12.1	12.4	38
Carolina	New Orleans	6.0	6.0	6.4	58
Minnesota	Tampa Bay	-0.5	0.7	-1.1	41
Detroit	Atlanta	-0.7	0.5	-1.1	56
Philadelphia	N. Y. Giants	4.0	2.5	5.3	36
Tennessee	Seattle	2.9	2.8	3.0	43
LA Chargers	Kansas City	-3.5	-4.0	-3.8	48
Green Bay	Cincinnati	9.1	9.5	8.7	44
Washington	Oakland	-2.5	-3.6	-1.9	53
Arizona	Dallas	-0.2	1.1	-0.2	48

 

The AFC West Could Have The Three Best Teams In The NFL
How could it be that the three best teams in the NFL might all play in the same division? Is it possible that Oakland, Kansas City, and Denver are the top three teams? You’d get a good argument from fans in New England, Atlanta, and maybe Pittsburgh and Baltimore, but through two weeks of the season, it is hard to say that any of the other teams outside of the AFC West are better than the top three.

Oakland owns a win at Tennessee, the team picked to win the AFC South by a majority of prognosticators. Kansas City won at New England, a team that many thought could go 16-0 this year. Denver blew Dallas off the field Sunday. All three teams are 2-0, and it is possible that all three teams will win double digit games this year.

Guess what? This isn’t the first time this division has been so strong. Let’s return to the golden age of yesteryear. Set the time travel clock back to 1967 and 1968. The old American Football League’s West Division had the same four teams as today’s AFC West–Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs, and Raiders (The Cincinnati Bengals would join in 1968).
Oakland had the incredible mad bomber Daryle Lamonica throwing lasers to Warren Wells and Fred Biletnikoff with bruising running backs Hewritt Dixon, Clem Daniels, and Pete Banaszak, and the Raiders’ offense was maybe one of the best of all time during that era. The Silver and Black attack topped 32 points per game in consecutive seasons. The Raider defense featured stars in all three units. Tom Keating and the inimitable Ben Davidson kept the FTD Florist company in business, as relatives of injured NFL quarterbacks frequently ordered get-well bouquets for their injured heroes. Dan Conners was one of the top middle linebackers in the game in an era where this position usually was the most important of all. The secondary was tough with stars Willie Brown and Kent McCloughan at the corners.

Kansas City played a more ball-controlled offense than Oakland, but their defense was just as dominating as the Raiders, and it made for the best rivalry in the history of organized football. The Chiefs offense was led by Len Dawson, the most accurate passer in the AFL. Dawson did not throw as many deep balls, but he had the arm and accuracy. With incredible run support from Mike Garrett, Robert Holmes, and Wendell Hayes, the Chiefs ran the ball more than the rest of the AFL during this time, and it allowed their great defense to stay on the sidelines for longer stretches. When KC’s defense took the field, it was a red storm. Tackle Buck Buchanan was the biggest defender in the league. Teams usually ran away from him, which funneled the ball carrier toward another star, end Jerry Mays.

The linebacker corps may have been the best trio of all time. Willie Lanier was the cream of the crop of middle linebackers. Bobby Bell and Jim Lynch manned the outside spots, and this group was responsible for stopping opponents from converting first downs on third and short. On the back line, Johnny Robinson was one of the top two or three safeties in the 10-year history of the AFL, if not the best. Emmitt Thomas was the equal of Oakland’s Brown on the outside.

San Diego had been the dominant AFL West team during the first half of the decade. The Chargers won the AFL West Five of the first six years. Beginning with the Chiefs-Raiders dominance in 1966 and carrying through the 1970’s, the Chargers continued to be a very good team, just not quite up to the standards of the big two. San Diego was known to get off to great starts and then fade in the last four weeks of the season. In 1966, San Diego was just a half-game behind Kansas City after eight weeks, but they finished 7-6-1 losing four of their last six. In 1967, the Chargers were 8-1-1 through 10 games, just a half-game behind Oakland at 9-1. The two teams squared off in the AFL Game of the Year in San Diego. The Chargers briefly looked like they had what it took to win that day, before Oakland wore them down and Lamonica tore the Chargers’ secondary to shreds. Oakland finished 13-1, while the Chargers lost all the rest of their games to fall to 8-5-1, good for third place. In 1968, through 10 games, the Chargers stood at 8-2, tied with Oakland and a half-game behind Kansas City, who had played 11 games and was 9-2. Once again, the Chargers crashed in December, falling to 9-5, while Oakland and Kansas City won out to finish tied at 12-2 (Oakland won in a playoff).

If we look at history in this division, two of the three current dominating teams should continue to dominate week after week, while the third team will eventually fall back. Having to play four games against the other two powers will take its toll on all three teams, and it figures that one team will have a tough time recovering from the beatings. Statistically, we could be looking at one team finishing 12-4, one team finishing 11-5, and the third team falling to 9-7. Of course, this could be totally off base, and all three teams could be on their way to finishing between 12-4 and 10-6. All three teams could easily make the playoffs, as it looks unlikely that the AFC East or AFC South will produce a wild card team this year.

Only Thrice in 62 Years!
Can you name the NFL team that has won its division only three times in the last 62 years? Obviously, 62 years back means this team has to be an original NFL team. That should make it easy for you. In the last 62 seasons, The Detroit Lions won their three Black and Blue Division titles in 1983, 1991, and 1993. They have been the bridesmaid more times than any other team during that period, finishing second 16 times through the years.

With Minnesota and Green Bay showing numerous liabilities through two weeks of the season, could this finally be the year that Matthew Stafford guides the Lions to the top of the NFC North? Might there be a playoff victory coming to Ford Field? The last time the Lions won a playoff game, it happened at the old Pontiac Silverdome. Detroit slaughtered Dallas that day in 1991 by a score of 38-6. It wasn’t the great Barry Sanders that did all the damage. Quarterback Erik Kramer had a career day against the Cowboys, throwing for 341 yards and three touchdowns, while the Lions’ defense picked off two passes and sacked Cowboy quarterback Troy Aikman three times.

The Offense Continues to Rest
Through two weeks of play, the median NFL score is just 19 points, down four points from last year’s total. You have to go back to 1993 to find less scoring for an entire season. The NFL total TV ratings are down by a huge amount this year through the first two weeks of the season. While many in the political world believe it has to do with players refusing to stand for the National Anthem, we tend to believe that the average fan doesn’t really pay attention to that factor. The game has become boring. Teams no longer pass the ball down the field vertically. Quarterbacks rarely throw the ball more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. When it’s 3rd and 12, they throw a five-yard pass, hoping the receiver can run for another seven. Running games have come down to three basic types–a line plunge, a stretch, and a draw. All 32 teams look identical, like they must share one playbook.

Why do we believe that the ratings are down simply due to boring games and not due to political issues? There is a very simple explanation for our beliefs. Throughout the nation, there is unrest on the university campuses from coast to coast. Riots, vandalism, assaults, and the like are on the rise, and civil unrest is more the norm than the deviant behavior. Some colleges are redefining what is free speech. The same people that would theoretically have issues with this change of sociology and would be likely to turn off college football games just like they would turn off NFL games due to similar unrest have yet to turn away. In fact, college football ratings are on the rise, gaining about as much as the NFL is losing.

Therefore, it is our belief that total football TV ratings are about on par with their historical averages. The change is that more people are now watching on Saturday than ever before, while Sunday viewing is sinking. It is obvious why this is so. College football is quite a bit more entertaining.

In the college game, you have multiple offensive philosophies. Even when multiple teams run the identical spread offense, there are many variations. Arizona’s and New Mexico’s spread offenses are basically 21st Century wishbone offenses that have evolved. Ohio State’s and Auburn’s spread offenses resemble the old single wing offenses of way back. Oklahoma’s and Clemson’s spread offenses look more like the old NFL Shotgun offenses and the really old TCU Spread of the 1950s. You also have smash-mouth T offenses with Michigan and others. You still have standard triple option offenses at Army, Navy, Air Force, Tulane, and Georgia Tech. There is variety, and on top of the varying offenses, there are numerous philosophies on how to implement these offenses.

It also doesn’t hurt the college game that the average fan can choose between four or five games at 12 PM, 3:30 PM, and 7 PM Eastern time, while the NFL does not give that option to the fans. If you live in an NFL city, you get your team’s game, and if they are at home, you get only your team’s game. CBS and Fox have to take turns getting double header games, so if your team is at home when its regular network (CBS for AFC and Fox for NFC) doesn’t have a double header, you get just one Sunday afternoon game.

The NFL has to understand that just because somebody lives in Atlanta, Charlotte, Nashville, or Jacksonville, it does not mean they have lived there their entire lives. Actually, in the rapidly expanding metropolis cities of the Sunny South, more fans have moved into this area from colder and less financially lucrative cities. Take Nashville for instance. The city gains 100 new residents every day. In the last three football seasons, 109,500 new residents have added to the Music City’s metro population. Of that 100K plus, a large number moved from New York City, Chicago, Los Angeles, Atlanta, Tampa-St. Pete, Detroit, Cincinnati, Washington DC, and Dallas. Of the football fans, many remain fans of their former city and have no ties with the Titans. Go to a local sports-themed eatery on Sunday afternoon, and you will find as many fans of other teams watching their former city’s team play than there are fans at LP Field watching the Titans.

If the NFL was smart, it would drop their holier than thou elite beliefs and realize that it might be today’s Walmart having to face the new reality that there is now a better option called Amazon, and the fans have discovered this option.

 

This Week’s NFL PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
New England	106.4	107.0	106.3	106.5	24
Miami	99.6	99.8	99.3	99.6	23
Buffalo	97.5	98.2	97.7	97.8	22
N. Y. Jets	91.2	90.7	91.0	91.0	21
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Pittsburgh	105.9	106.1	105.8	106.0	22
Baltimore	103.4	103.5	103.7	103.5	18
Cincinnati	97.0	97.4	97.0	97.2	16
Cleveland	94.4	94.8	94.8	94.6	21
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Tennessee	101.0	101.1	100.5	100.9	25
Houston	97.4	97.8	96.9	97.4	14
Jacksonville	95.5	95.7	95.4	95.5	23
Indianapolis	95.4	95.7	95.0	95.4	25
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Oakland	105.4	106.0	105.1	105.5	28
Kansas City	105.2	105.4	105.6	105.4	22
Denver	104.6	103.6	105.1	104.4	19
LA Chargers	99.8	99.3	99.8	99.6	26
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Dallas	103.4	102.4	103.3	103.1	23
Philadelphia	101.3	100.1	102.2	101.2	22
Washington	99.3	98.9	99.7	99.3	25
N.Y. Giants	99.3	99.6	98.9	99.3	14
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Green Bay	103.2	103.9	102.7	103.3	28
Detroit	102.4	103.2	102.4	102.7	23
Minnesota	98.7	99.0	98.8	98.8	18
Chicago	92.9	93.4	92.5	92.9	21
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Atlanta	105.6	105.2	106.1	105.6	33
Tampa Bay	102.3	101.3	102.9	102.2	23
Carolina	101.4	100.5	101.7	101.2	25
New Orleans	98.4	97.5	98.4	98.1	33
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Seattle	101.2	101.3	100.5	101.0	18
Arizona	100.2	100.5	100.1	100.3	25
San Francisco	92.5	92.3	92.5	92.4	23
LA Rams	91.2	91.5	91.1	91.3	18

To estimate a game’s total points scored, add both teams’ totals.

 

 

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for September 14-18, 2017

Yuck!  You could say that about the weather in recent weeks.  You could say that about there not being enough “United” in the United States in recent months.  You could say that about being a Dodgers’ fan during the last fortnight or being a fan of a team that has a 4-game set with the Cleveland Indians.  You could say that about prime-time TV for the last 40+ years.  But, most of all, you can sum up our money line parlay selections through two weeks of the football season with that one word.

We usually start each season off a bit weak and then begin to succeed around the first week of October, culminating in a big couple of weeks in the second half that brings us a positive return on investment for the season.  We have to admit that so far this year, there seems to be just enough added parity in college football along with the usual uncertainty at the start of the NFL season to make this downright difficult to find parlays that return the type of odds we look for.  Sure, we could take Alabama at minus one zillion and win a dollar, and we could even put together a parlay of 10 favorites like Penn State over Georgia State and maybe get a parlay at -500, where for every 500 we put up we can win another 100.  But, that isn’t our style.  We are on the lookout only for parlays that give us +120 or higher odds.

We selected 5 parlays last week.  Each had excellent payout odds, and we were still alive in some of the really good ones with just one game left.  We selected Oklahoma to win at Ohio State and could have returned a nice chunk of cash playing that game as a singleton.  No, we had to add Stanford to that game to get +1010 odds, and when Stanford began the game looking like they could possibly win, we were pumped with the possibility that we could get far ahead on the plus side for the season.  Alas, USC started to look like the prognosticators believed they would look, and the Cardinal went back to Palo Alto with a huge loss on their slate.

So, for the week, we invested $500 of imaginary bankroll and received back $278 for a loss of $222 or -44% Return on Investment.  For the season, the numbers worsen to $600 invested and $278 returned for a -55.6% ROI.

As bad as the above sounds, it will sound even worse when we tell you that we didn’t really like 90% of the possible money lines this week.  We couldn’t find much value in this week’s college schedule, and the NFL still looks mysterious.  At this point of the season, and with two teams not even playing a game in week one, the NFL wars leave us trapped in a giant minefield.  Is there a new Dallas Cowboys team out there destined to go from last place in 2016 to the best record in the league?  What do we make of the LA Rams looking like the New England Patriots in week one, or the Patriots’ defense looking more like the 49ers defense?  What about the anemic offenses in Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Houston, and New York (pick your poison with the Giants or Jets)?  What about the AFC West?  Could it be that four of the top 10 teams or at least three of the top five teams in the AFC come from that division?  The Chiefs and Raiders dominated in week one like it was 1966 through 1969 in the old AFL.

What we are trying to say is that we are only risking $200 of imaginary bankroll this week.  We are selecting one college and one NFL parlay, and we admit up front, we do not particularly like either selection, because they both required too many games to get the odds we like.  If we win one of the two, it will be a profitable week, but we are telling you before you see the two picks that we have little faith in either one this week.  As we said before, if you want a guaranteed winner to about 96% possibility, then you can come up with a parlay of about 10 sure things and still have to play them at ridiculous odds so that one upset would empty your account.

For instance, you could make a parlay of Penn State over Georgia State, Virginia Tech over East Carolina, Oklahoma over Tulane, Ohio State over Army, Alabama over Colorado State, Utah over San Jose State, Washington over Fresno State, and Michigan over Air Force.  All eight teams are prohibitive favorites, and it is an almost certain possibility that all eight favorites will win, making this almost a sure thing.  The problem is that for every $100 you put into a parlay like this, you can win a whopping $18.37 profit on your investment.  It is actually a sucker bet, because out of those eight sure things, at this point in the season, one of those games is not the sure thing it looks to be, and we don’t really know which one it is, but rest assured one of these sure thing games will turn out not to be that way.

With that in mind, here are our two official selections for the week.

#1 @ +179
Must Win	Must Lose
Temple	U Mass
South Carolina	Kentucky
Duke	Baylor
Wake Forest	Utah St.
Oregon	Wyoming

Having to go five games deep to get a decent potential ROI, we would expect to get better favorites than this quintet.  We went with Temple mainly because this is a selection against U Mass.  South Carolina and Kentucky look like it should be close to a tossup, but in Columbia, we believe the Gamecocks are a touchdown better, and they are coming off a semi-impressive win over Missouri, while the Wildcats have been close to clawless through two lackluster wins.  We are taking Duke over Baylor for the same reason we took Temple; Baylor has looked anemic in two games under Matt Rhule, and the transition to his style of play could be really tough.  Wake Forest looks to have something going this year under Dave Clawson,  The Demon Deacons took Boston College to the woodshed last week, and at home against a so-so Utah State team, they “appear” to be ready to start the season at 3-0.  Oregon looks like one of those sure things against Wyoming, but you never know what might happen in Laramie.  That is a subtle home field advantage for the Cowboys, and an improving Duck team may be walking into an ambush.

 

#2 @ +276
Must Win	Must Lose
Baltimore	Cleveland
Carolina	Buffalo
New England	New Orleans
Kansas City	Philadelphia
Oakland	NY Jets

The Ravens looked more like the Baltimore teams of 4 to 5 years ago last week when they punished Andy Dalton and Cincinnati.  The Bengals score after 60 minutes was the same as their score before the game kicked off.  The Ravens now get Cleveland for their home-opener, but the Browns looked like they were a force to be reckoned with against Pittsburgh in week one.  It could be that “Money Ball” is about to start paying off near Lake Erie.  But, we believe the Ravens will be up to the task this Sunday.  Is Carolina going to look more like the 2015 team than the 2016 team?  Did Buffalo really look that bad against the 32nd best team in the NFL and really have to worry about beating the Jets?  If so, then the Panthers should win by double digits this week.  New England playing New Orleans should never be allowed to happen again.  No, we don’t mean the two teams should never be scheduled, but how do you give one team and extra three days off while making the other team have to play on the road on Monday Night?  4 extra days to prepare for a game, coming off the debacle in Foxboro on opening night against the Chiefs?  We’ll take the road team in this one.  In taking Kansas City and Oakland at home against the Eagles and Jets, we are going under the assumption that the two bitter rivals are possibly the two best teams in the NFL.

So, there you have it for this week.  Remember that the PiRates never wager real money on our selections.  It is just a mathematical exercise for fun.  Please do not wager real money on our just-for-fun selections.  That even goes for the five or six of you who are real professionals who claim that you have a unique way of playing our ratings that makes your weekends very profitable.  It reminds us of the football handicapper with a system that consistently won 26% of his single sides wagers and never realized that if he just took the other side every week, he’d be the most successful guy in Vegas.

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 2: September 14-18, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Spreads & Totals

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Total
Cincinnati	Houston	3.5	2.9	4.5	31
Jacksonville	Tennessee	2.2	1.4	3.1	47
Baltimore	Cleveland	11.6	11.5	11.5	40
Carolina	Buffalo	7.1	5.1	7.3	50
New Orleans	New England	-2.6	-4.6	-2.3	55
Indianapolis	Arizona	-1.5	-1.8	-1.8	53
Kansas City	Philadelphia	6.7	8.2	6.1	43
Pittsburgh	Minnesota	7.2	7.7	6.4	41
Tampa Bay	Chicago	9.3	8.0	9.9	42
LA Chargers	Miami	5.4	3.7	6.3	52
Oakland	N. Y. Jets	16.0	17.6	15.6	46
LA Rams	Washington	-4.2	-3.5	-4.7	43
Denver	Dallas	-1.1	-0.1	-1.0	39
Seattle	San Francisco	13.8	14.2	13.6	42
Atlanta	Green Bay	4.3	2.5	5.1	62
N. Y. Giants	Detroit	3.9	3.0	3.9	35

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
New England	104.7	105.6	104.5	104.9	22
Miami	98.6	99.3	98.0	98.6	24
Buffalo	97.5	98.4	97.7	97.9	24
N. Y. Jets	92.0	91.3	92.0	91.8	19
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Pittsburgh	104.4	104.9	104.0	104.5	23
Baltimore	103.2	103.4	103.5	103.3	18
Cincinnati	97.7	97.8	97.9	97.8	16
Cleveland	94.6	94.9	95.0	94.8	22
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Tennessee	98.6	99.2	97.9	98.6	25
Jacksonville	97.9	97.6	98.0	97.8	22
Houston	97.2	97.9	96.5	97.2	15
Indianapolis	95.6	95.8	95.2	95.5	27
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Kansas City	105.0	105.3	105.4	105.2	22
Oakland	104.6	105.4	104.1	104.7	27
Denver	101.8	101.3	102.1	101.7	17
LA Chargers	100.5	99.5	100.8	100.3	28
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Dallas	105.9	104.4	106.0	105.5	22
N.Y. Giants	101.3	101.4	101.1	101.3	14
Philadelphia	101.4	100.1	102.3	101.3	21
Washington	99.1	98.7	99.5	99.1	25
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Green Bay	103.8	104.8	103.3	104.0	28
Detroit	100.4	101.4	100.2	100.7	21
Minnesota	100.2	100.2	100.6	100.3	18
Chicago	94.5	95.0	94.3	94.6	20
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Atlanta	105.0	104.3	105.5	104.9	34
Carolina	101.6	100.5	101.9	101.3	26
Tampa Bay	100.9	99.9	101.3	100.7	22
New Orleans	99.6	98.4	99.7	99.2	33
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Seattle	102.4	102.5	101.9	102.3	18
Arizona	100.1	100.5	100.0	100.2	26
LA Rams	91.4	91.7	91.3	91.5	18
San Francisco	91.5	91.3	91.3	91.4	24

The Offense Rests
Okay, it has only been one week of the NFL season, and two teams didn’t even play, so we are looking at just 15 games to date. And, after 15 games, the worry going around the NFL is that there is a giant lack of offense. Let’s look into this potential problem to see where the answer(s) might be.

The Average Points Per Game for Week 1 was 20.2 points, which is down a little from the recent trend of about 22.5 to 23.0 points per game. The Average in total yards was 305, which is off by a little more than the recent historical norm of 325 yards.

Have defenses simply just gotten better, and is this trend real? Or, could there be other factors? The professional athlete continues to evolve into a more fit, stronger, quicker, and smarter specimen. This evolution has changed all sports, as NBA basketball has a handful of superstars, and you must have at least one and preferably two to compete for the title. Major League Baseball is all about how hard one can hit the ball and how difficult one can prevent one from hitting the ball. Small Ball is almost extinct, as it is all about OPS and preventing such.

Could it be that football has changed as well, and that the superior athletes of today can close up all the gaps on the field and make it much more difficult to gain yards?

We think not. Let’s look back to the 1960’s, a time when the professional athlete was evolving from a time 10 years earlier when linemen might be 210 pounds and backs 180. In the 1960’s, the trend of 270-pound tackles and 220-pound linebackers led to the fear that the field might become too small. However, the NFL featured all types of scoring. You had teams that scored a lot of points and gave up a goodly amount as well. You had teams that featured defenses that held teams under 10 points per game for an entire season. You had quarterbacks that you knew would lead their teams to the playoffs, while others would not be up to the challenge.

The philosophy of the game was much different. Today, almost every NFL team relies on the short passing game to move the ball, complimented with the power running game. A team is likely to feature 15 to 20 line plunges and 15-20 passes of less than 5 yards through the air. Defenses basically must defend horizontally, and they can get by with 2-deep coverage or man-to-man with a free safety for most of the game. They can bring 7 men into the box on more downs than ever, because today 2nd and 10 is more likely to see the QB throw a short pass of less than 5 yards with the hope that the receiver can run for another 5 after the catch.

Even on 3rd & 10, there is a great chance that the QB will throw a short pass, hoping that the receiver can gain the necessary yards to convert. Defenses can play 2-deep with a nickel or dime package and appear to have all the zones covered in the 10-yard range.

This bunching horizontally has led to an appearance that the running gaps are covered across the field. It is much easier to squeeze in and stuff the inside run, and since there are defenders spread out, the wide runs don’t always work any more, as the art of pulling two guards to lead interference has gone away like the drop kick.

Statistically, quarterbacks today look much better than quarterbacks of 50 years ago, but it is most likely not the case. And, here’s why. Today’s quarterbacks might go 20 of 30 for 185 yards with a TD. A passer from 50 years ago might go 14 of 30 for 185 yards with a TD. The 2017 QB has a higher QB rating (94.5 to 77.8), but how did he perform any better? The 2017 QB most likely threw passes that gained little yardage or even lost yardage. The 1967 QB rarely completed a pass for less than 5 yards. It was unheard of back then, and when it happened, it was almost always from a botched screen pass. In essence, if you look at the 2017 QB, he might have 40% of his completions going for less than 8 yards. The 1967 QB was more likely to have 10% of his completions going for less than 8 yards, and for the most part coming on 3rd and 5, not 3rd and 10.

Let’s look at the breakdown of some of the passing philosophies of today and 50 years ago. First, let us categorize passing plays into screens, short passes thrown no more than 5 yards downfield with some coming behind the line, medium passes in the 6-12 yard range, intermediate passes in the 13-20 yard range, deep passes in the 21-30 yard range, and long passes in the 31+ yard range.
The passer of today might throw 2 screens, 16 short passes, 8 medium passes, 2 intermediate passes, 1 deep pass, and 1 long pass per game. He might complete both screens, 12 of the short passes, 4 of the medium passes, 1 intermediate pass, and 1 of the two deeper throws for 20 completions. This gives him 185 passing yards.

The passer of 50 years ago might have thrown 4 screens (this play was used a lot more then), 3 short passes, 10 medium passes, 5 interemediate passes, 3 deep passes, and 5 long passes for his 30 attempts. He might complete 3 of the 4 screens, 2 of the 3 short passes, 5 of the 10 medium passes, 2 of the 5 intermediate passes, 1 of the 3 deep passes, and 1 of the 5 long passes for 14 completions but also for 185 yards.

So, which is better? We believe the 1967 stats are better, because they are more likely to produce points. It has always been difficult to drive down the field 80 yards in 15 plays for a touchdown. It takes long-gaining plays to win in the NFL, and it always has been the case. There have been teams like the 1960’s Green Bay Packers, and the 1970’s Miami Dolphins that could sustain drive after drive, but these teams also had great defenses, and they could afford to grind it out with 40 running plays and 20 passing plays in a game. Still, when you looked at Bart Starr, his passing feats were usually right there at the top. Starr would set up the longer passes by forcing the defense to stop the Packer running game. The Packers spread the field both horizontally and vertically.

Other quarterbacks like Johnny Unitas, Norm Van Brocklin, Sonny Jurgensen, Roman Gabriel, Don Meredith, George Blanda, Daryle Lamonica, Len Dawson, John Hadl, Joe Namath, Norm Snead, and Frank Ryan rarely threw a short pass. Lamonica is the quintessential passer from the 1960’s. Known as the “Mad Bomber,” he led the Oakland Raiders to a 37-4-1 record from 1967 to 1969. Lamonica threw the ball more than 40 yards downfield about 7 or 8 times a game, usually completing 2 or 3, and usually passing for 2 to 3 touchdowns every week. Having Warren Wells and Fred Biletnikoff running deep routes and having hands like glue meant that defenses had to play 3 and 4 deep on many downs. 2 Deep coverage was rare, because the QBs of the 1960’s would burn it.

The running games had more room in the 1960’s, and with a two-back alignment, the running game was more consistent. Defenses had to play looser against the deep pass and had to worry about which of the two backs would carry the ball. Defenses could not cover all the running gaps, because at least 3 defensive backs had to play off the line of scrimmage far enough back to cover the deep passing routes, and the linebackers had to worry about the intermediate zones of which there was more width than today, as today’s underneath zones usually have 5 defenders, whereas 50 years ago, there were just 4.

There are a few teams that showed us a vertical game this past weekend. Oakland, Minnesota, and Atlanta, showed a vertical passing offense this week, and the three teams combined for 78 points (26.0 ppg). All three won their games.

So, we believe the issue of less offense has more to do with game-planning than with evolution of athletes. Athletes have been evolving continually for years with consistency. Philosophies have changed through the years. As soon as one team succeeds in playing a certain way, 80% of the league tries to copy it. Maybe, when a vertical passing team wins a Super Bowl, within a couple years, the vertical passing game will be the norm once again, like it was in the 1960’s when the NFL and AFL were more exciting than the NFL today. It could also be a factor in the decline of television viewership and the less frequent sellouts in the stadiums.

PiRate Ratings–NFL For Week 1

Week 1 NFL Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
New England	Kansas City	7.4	7.7	6.9
Buffalo	N. Y. Jets	7.7	9.6	7.9
Chicago	Atlanta	-7.7	-6.4	-8.5
Cincinnati	Baltimore	2.6	2.0	2.9
Cleveland	Pittsburgh	-7.9	-8.0	-7.3
Dallas	N. Y. Giants	5.0	3.2	4.9
Detroit	Arizona	1.1	2.3	0.8
Green Bay	Seattle	3.8	5.1	3.6
Houston	Jacksonville	7.7	8.4	7.2
LA Rams	Indianapolis	-1.1	-1.1	-0.9
Miami (Postponed)	Tampa Bay	x	x	x
San Francisco	Carolina	-3.7	-3.4	-3.9
Tennessee	Oakland	-1.3	-2.2	-1.2
Washington	Philadelphia	2.5	3.5	1.9
Denver	LA Chargers	4.5	5.0	4.7
Minnesota	New Orleans	1.9	4.2	1.7

Week 1 NFL Totals

Home	Visitor	Total
New England	Kansas City	41
Buffalo	N. Y. Jets	46
Chicago	Atlanta	56
Cincinnati	Baltimore	36
Cleveland	Pittsburgh	45
Dallas	N. Y. Giants	37
Detroit	Arizona	47
Green Bay	Seattle	47
Houston	Jacksonville	37
LA Rams	Indianapolis	43
Miami (postponed)	Tampa Bay	x
San Francisco	Carolina	52
Tennessee	Oakland	52
Washington	Philadelphia	47
Denver	LA Chargers	46
Minnesota	New Orleans	52

The PiRate Ratings were ready for publication Monday, but our captain, with loads of “oceanic” experience in search of robbing Las Vegans of their gold, gave the orders to hold off a couple days.  Our captain knew that the schedule for week 1 would more than likely change due to Ms. Irma of the Atlantic.

How ironic that this hurricane be named Irma.  Irma is an old name seldom seen these days and maybe after next week, joining Jedidiah, Japath, and other names not used any more.

The NFL schedule makers used to consider weather possibilities when creating the annual slate of games.  Not that Vince Lombardi ever needed the help, but Green Bay frequently began seasons with multiple home games early in the season, while Los Angeles played on the road more early in the season.  Then, when the weather turned raw, the Packers had more road games, while the Rams closed the season with more home games.  By this time, Green Bay had a gaudy won-loss record, while the already eliminated Rams played home games in a rather empty Los Angeles Coliseum, and coaches like Harland Svare suffered the consequences.

The Miami Dolphins and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers now face the task of having to play 16 games in 16 weeks, as Hurricane Irma has forced this Sunday’s opener to be postponed to Week 11.  Because the Dolphins already have one home game in London, it was not feasible that the team would move a second home game away from home.  The right thing for the players would have been to move the game to a location as close as possible without putting it in the path of the hurricane.  A large stadium like Legion Field in Birmingham might have been able to host this game, but this is not an NFL venue, and the NFL usually only relocates games to other NFL stadiums, because there are certain quality standards that must be set.

Moving the game to week 11, when by happenstance both teams have their regularly scheduled bye, is means the Dolphins will not play a real home game until October, and having to play 16 games in 16 weeks will most likely hurt both teams’ chances to make the playoffs this season.  With the concussion protocol rules, the chances of having a full roster of skill position players for 16 consecutive weeks is close to nil.  Players need an extra week off at some point in the meat of the schedule just to nurse the bumps and bruises that make every day life uncomfortable.  This is likely to cost both teams a win or two, as they will not be able to field a healthy roster when they most need a week off.

What you will see in our projected standings reflects what we think will happen.  Both teams were originally selected to become Wildcard Playoff participants before this happened.  Now, both teams are moved out of the playoffs.  The Dolphins are sacrificing the possibility of playoffs for the guarantee of a seventh home game.

2017 Opening NFL PiRate Ratings 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Buffalo	97.4	98.4	97.6	97.8	26
Miami	98.6	99.3	98.0	98.6	24
New England	107.1	107.8	106.9	107.2	20
N. Y. Jets	92.1	91.3	92.1	91.9	20
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Baltimore	100.7	101.1	100.8	100.8	19
Cincinnati	100.2	100.1	100.6	100.3	17
Cleveland	94.3	94.7	94.6	94.5	22
Pittsburgh	104.7	105.1	104.4	104.8	23
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Houston	99.9	100.4	99.4	99.9	15
Indianapolis	99.1	99.3	98.7	99.0	27
Jacksonville	95.2	95.1	95.1	95.1	22
Tennessee	99.4	99.7	98.9	99.3	25
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Denver	101.9	101.4	102.3	101.9	17
Kansas City	102.6	103.1	103.0	102.9	21
LA Chargers	100.4	99.4	100.6	100.1	29
Oakland	103.8	104.9	103.1	103.9	27
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Dallas	104.6	103.0	104.5	104.1	23
N.Y. Giants	102.6	102.8	102.6	102.7	14
Philadelphia	100.3	98.9	101.2	100.1	21
Washington	100.2	99.9	100.6	100.2	26
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Chicago	94.4	95.0	94.1	94.5	20
Detroit	99.3	100.6	99.0	99.7	21
Green Bay	103.5	104.7	102.9	103.7	29
Minnesota	99.3	99.9	99.5	99.6	17
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Atlanta	105.1	104.3	105.7	105.0	36
Carolina	100.2	99.3	100.3	99.9	26
New Orleans	100.5	98.7	100.8	100.0	35
Tampa Bay	100.9	99.9	101.3	100.7	22
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Arizona	101.2	101.3	101.2	101.2	26
LA Rams	94.9	95.2	94.8	95.0	16
San Francisco	92.9	92.5	92.9	92.8	26
Seattle	102.7	102.6	102.3	102.5	18

To estimate spreads, simply subtract the lower rated teams’ ratings from the higher rated teams’ rating.  Then, add your home field advantage of choice.  The PiRates use game specific advantages for each game.

To estimate the total points scored, simply add the two teams’ Totals numbers.

PiRate Ratings Preseason Playoff Projections 

AFC Seeding

1. New England

2. Oakland

3. Pittsburgh

4. Houston

5. Kansas City

6. Baltimore

 

NFC Seeding

1. Seattle

2. Green Bay

3. NY Giants

4. Atlanta

5. Arizona

6. Dallas

 

Wildcard Playoff Round

Pittsburgh over Baltimore

Kansas City over Houston

NY Giants over Dallas

Arizona over Atlanta

 

Divisional Playoff Round

New England over Kansas City

Oakland over Pittsburgh

Arizona over Seattle

Green Bay over NY Giants

 

Conference Championship Games

Oakland over New England

Green Bay over Arizona

 

Super Bowl 52

Oakland over Green Bay

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Wildcard Playoff Round: January 7-8, 2017

NFL Playoffs–Wildcard Round

Oakland Raiders (12-4-0) at Houston Texans (9-7-0)

Saturday, January 7, 4:35 PM EST

TV: ESPN

Las Vegas Line: Houston by 3 1/2,

Totals Line: 36 1/2

Note: Raiders’ rookie QB Connor Cook will start

Texans expect to start Brock Osweiler at QB who will play at less than 100%

PiRate Spread: Houston by 2.7

Mean Spread: Houston by 3.0

Bias Spread: Houston by 1.8

Totals Spread: 46 points

100 Simulations

Houston wins 77

Oakland wins 23

Average score: Houston 23  Oakland 18

Outlier A: Houston 41  Oakland 13

Outlier B: Oakland 34  Houston 16

 

Detroit Lions (9-7-0) at Seattle Seahawks (10-5-1)

Saturday, January 7, 8:15 PM EST

TV: NBC

Las Vegas Line: Seattle by 8

Totals Line: 43

PiRate Spread: Seattle by 8.6

Mean Spread: Seattle by 6.9

Bias Spread: Seattle by 9.3

Totals Spread: 43 points

100 Simulations

Seattle wins 86

Detroit wins 14

Average Score: Seattle 26  Detroit 16

Outlier A: Seattle 42  Detroit 13

Outlier B: Detroit 27  Seattle 20

 

Miami Dolphins (10-6-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5-0)

Sunday, January 8, 1:05 PM EST

TV: CBS

Note: Miami QB Ryan Tannehill is out for this game.  Matt Moore will start.

Las Vegas Spread: Pittsburgh by 10

Totals Spread: 47

PiRate Spread: Pittsburgh by 9.9

Mean Spread: Pittsburgh by 9.8

Bias Spread: Pittsburgh by 10.0

Totals Spread: 45 points

100 Simulations

Pittsburgh wins 73

Miami wins 27

Average Score: Pittsburgh 25  Miami 20

Outlier A: Pittsburgh 35  Miami 10

Outlier B: Miami 19  Pittsburgh 10

 

New York Giants (11-5-0) at Green Bay Packers (10-6-0)

Sunday, January 8, 4:40 PM EST

TV: Fox

Las Vegas Line: Green Bay by 5

Totals Line: 44 1/2

PiRate Spread: Green Bay by 5.6

Mean Spread: Green Bay by 6.1

Bias Spread: Green Bay by 5.0

Totals Spread: 57 points

100 simulations

Green Bay wins 59

New York wins 41

Average Score: Green Bay 26  New York 24

Outlier A: Green Bay 31  New York 13

Outlier B: New York 30  Green Bay 17