PiRate Ratings College Football–November 6, 2022

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Akron	Eastern Michigan	-9.1	-9.3	-9.9
Miami (O)	Ohio	0.8	0.4	0.0
Toledo	Ball St.	13.7	13.6	14.4
Western Michigan	Northern Illinois	-2.5	-2.0	-2.2
Central Michigan	Buffalo	2.3	1.8	2.6
Bowling Green	Kent St.	1.1	-0.7	1.2
Memphis	Tulsa	6.7	7.7	6.8
Louisiana	Georgia Southern	2.1	2.3	2.3
Cincinnati	East Carolina	8.6	8.3	8.5
USC	Colorado	28.0	29.9	29.8
UNLV	Fresno St.	-10.1	-11.1	-10.6
Wake Forest	North Carolina	1.6	1.2	1.8
Syracuse	Florida St.	-5.2	-5.8	-5.9
Connecticut	Liberty	-16.5	-16.3	-19.3
Duke	Virginia Tech	5.2	7.1	5.7
Navy (Bal)	Notre Dame	-22.7	-21.9	-23.8
West Virginia	Oklahoma	-6.8	-6.6	-7.4
Virginia	Pittsburgh	-7.6	-6.6	-7.5
Ohio St.	Indiana	37.7	37.4	40.2
Tennessee	Missouri	23.1	22.9	24.6
Penn St.	Maryland	12.1	12.1	12.9
North Carolina St.	Boston College	22.3	20.8	23.2
Florida	South Carolina	3.8	5.4	4.2
Kentucky	Vanderbilt	19.7	19.5	21.6
Michigan	Nebraska	28.8	28.5	30.3
Georgia Tech	Miami (Fla.)	-5.0	-4.2	-5.3
Clemson	Louisville	7.3	7.1	7.4
Texas Tech	Kansas	5.7	5.7	7.7
South Florida	SMU	-12.8	-13.2	-14.4
Coastal Carolina	Southern Miss.	9.2	9.7	9.9
Georgia St.	Louisiana-Monroe	18.1	17.9	20.1
Marshall	Appalachian St.	0.1	-0.2	-1.2
Old Dominion	James Madison	-2.6	-4.0	-6.0
Tulane	Central Florida	-0.5	-1.3	-0.8
Minnesota	Northwestern	22.4	20.8	23.1
Illinois	Purdue	2.3	3.9	3.4
South Alabama	Texas St.	14.3	13.6	14.8
Michigan St.	Rutgers	16.1	16.1	17.4
Houston	Temple	23.8	21.7	25.2
Baylor	Kansas St.	3.7	3.9	4.1
Arkansas St.	Massachusetts	14.1	14.6	16.6
Western Kentucky	Rice	18.3	18.2	19.9
Utah	Stanford	20.4	21.6	22.9
Washington St.	Arizona St.	8.0	8.9	8.6
Oregon St.	California	14.1	13.2	13.6
Oregon	Washington	12.4	11.6	11.9
UCLA	Arizona	19.4	19.5	20.6
San Diego St.	San Jose St.	-0.2	-1.2	-0.9
Texas	TCU	4.2	4.5	3.4
Auburn	Texas A&M	1.0	-0.9	-0.8
Troy	Army	3.5	4.1	5.4
Ole Miss	Alabama	-11.6	-12.4	-13.9
Oklahoma St.	Iowa St.	4.7	3.4	4.1
Iowa	Wisconsin	1.1	0.2	0.0
Arkansas	LSU	-1.8	-2.6	-1.5
Mississippi St.	Georgia	-14.2	-14.6	-16.1
Air Force	New Mexico	26.7	26.5	28.6
Middle Tennessee	Charlotte	12.1	11.8	12.6
UAB	North Texas	5.4	5.2	4.9
UTSA	Louisiana Tech	18.3	16.5	19.4
Colorado St.	Wyoming	-5.4	-6.3	-6.3
Florida Int’l.	Florida Atlantic	-19.9	-18.8	-20.3
Nevada	Boise St.	-20.0	-18.0	-21.0
Hawaii	Utah St.	-13.8	-12.7	-13.4

FBS vs. FCS Game

FBS	FCS	PiRate
New Mexico St.	Lamar	18.2

Teams With Byes

BYU

UTEP

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Note: Our ratings are not reward based on what the teams have done so far. They are predictive in nature, meant to be used for the following week to predict the outcome of games. Thus, a two-loss team is ranked number three over a one-loss team that beat them. Do not confuse power ratings for rankings like the AP, COaches, and Playoff Polls.

#	Team	Rating
1	Ohio St.	132.8
2	Georgia	132.7
3	Alabama	129.2
4	Michigan	127.6
5	Tennessee	125.3
6	Penn St.	119.8
7	L S U	117.5
8	Texas	117.3
9	Clemson	117.2
10	Utah	117.1
11	Oregon	117.1
12	Baylor	116.5
13	T C U	116.2
14	Florida St.	116.0
15	Kansas St.	115.6
16	Notre Dame	115.6
17	Minnesota	115.4
18	Mississippi St.	114.7
19	Wisconsin	114.5
20	Ole Miss	113.5
21	U C L A	113.1
22	Louisville	113.0
23	NC State	112.7
24	Arkansas	112.5
25	U S C	112.3
26	Oklahoma	112.2
27	Iowa	112.0
28	Illinois	111.8
29	Purdue	111.6
30	Michigan St.	110.7
31	Maryland	110.4
32	Oklahoma St.	109.7
33	Kentucky	109.7
34	North Carolina	109.6
35	Oregon St.	109.5
36	Wake Forest	109.2
37	Florida	109.0
38	Cincinnati	108.8
39	Texas Tech	108.7
40	Texas A&M	108.7
41	Iowa St.	108.6
42	Pittsburgh	108.4
43	Washington	108.1
44	South Carolina	107.6
45	Washington St.	107.5
46	UCF	107.4
47	Syracuse	107.3
48	Auburn	105.5
49	Kansas	105.4
50	Missouri	104.7
51	Boise St.	104.2
52	Tulane	104.0
53	SMU	103.8
54	East Carolina	103.3
55	BYU	103.2
56	Liberty	103.1
57	Air Force	102.4
58	West Virginia	102.3
59	Arizona St.	102.0
60	Houston	101.5
61	Nebraska	101.4
62	Miami (Fla.)	101.2
63	Fresno St.	100.6
64	California	98.9
65	Appalachian St.	98.7
66	Duke	98.7
67	W. Kentucky	98.6
68	Stanford	98.5
69	Toledo	98.3
70	Georgia St.	98.1
71	Virginia	98.1
72	Memphis	97.7
73	U T S A	97.5
74	Indiana	97.4
75	Rutgers	97.2
76	U A B	96.6
77	Northwestern	96.3
78	Arizona	96.3
79	Troy	96.3
80	James Madison	95.9
81	Virginia Tech	95.7
82	South Alabama	95.4
83	San Jose St.	95.4
84	Marshall	95.3
85	Army	94.9
86	Coastal Carolina	94.8
87	North Texas	94.0
88	Boston College	93.6
89	Georgia Tech	93.3
90	Tulsa	93.1
91	Ga. Southern	92.6
92	Vanderbilt	92.5
93	Louisiana	92.3
94	Navy	92.2
95	San Diego St.	92.1
96	Ohio	92.1
97	N. Illinois	91.8
98	Buffalo	91.0
99	Central Mich.	90.8
100	Miami (Ohio)	90.5
101	Utah St.	90.2
102	Old Dominion	89.7
103	Wyoming	89.3
104	Florida Atlantic	89.2
105	Southern Miss.	88.2
106	Kent St.	88.0
107	USF	87.8
108	U N L V	87.5
109	Western Mich.	87.1
110	Ball St.	86.9
111	Bowling Green	86.6
112	Eastern Mich.	86.3
113	Colorado	86.0
114	Middle Tennessee	84.5
115	U T E P	84.3
116	Texas St.	83.7
117	Connecticut	83.2
118	Rice	82.3
119	Arkansas St.	82.3
120	Nevada	82.1
121	UL-Monroe	81.9
122	Louisiana Tech	81.9
123	Colorado St.	81.3
124	Temple	80.9
125	New Mexico	78.1
126	Charlotte	74.9
127	Akron	74.9
128	New Mexico St.	74.8
129	Hawaii	73.8
130	Massachusetts	69.7
131	Florida Int’l.	68.1

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	108.8	108.1	109.4	108.8
UCF	107.0	107.6	107.6	107.4
Tulane	104.0	103.8	104.3	104.0
SMU	103.9	103.3	104.2	103.8
East Carolina	103.2	102.8	103.8	103.3
Houston	101.7	100.9	101.8	101.5
Memphis	97.8	98.0	97.3	97.7
Tulsa	93.6	92.8	93.0	93.1
Navy	92.6	92.2	91.9	92.2
USF	88.6	87.6	87.4	87.8
Temple	80.9	82.2	79.6	80.9
AAC	98.4	98.1	98.2	98.2
Atlantic Coast
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	117.4	117.0	117.3	117.2
Florida St.	116.2	115.8	115.9	116.0
Louisville	113.2	112.9	112.9	113.0
NC State	113.2	112.4	112.5	112.7
Wake Forest	109.4	109.1	109.0	109.2
Syracuse	108.1	107.0	106.9	107.3
Boston College	93.9	94.6	92.3	93.6
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
North Carolina	109.9	109.9	109.2	109.6
Pittsburgh	109.3	108.3	107.6	108.4
Miami (Fla.)	101.9	101.0	100.6	101.2
Duke	98.4	100.3	97.2	98.7
Virginia	98.6	98.7	97.0	98.1
Virginia Tech	96.3	96.2	94.6	95.7
Georgia Tech	94.0	93.8	92.3	93.3
ACC	105.7	105.5	104.7	105.3
Big 12
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Texas	118.1	117.2	116.6	117.3
Baylor	117.0	115.9	116.6	116.5
T C U	116.9	115.6	116.3	116.2
Kansas St.	116.3	115.0	115.5	115.6
Oklahoma	112.6	111.7	112.4	112.2
Oklahoma St.	110.5	108.9	109.7	109.7
Texas Tech	109.0	107.9	109.3	108.7
Iowa St.	108.8	108.5	108.6	108.6
Kansas	106.4	105.2	104.6	105.4
West Virginia	102.8	102.2	102.0	102.3
Big 12	111.8	110.8	111.2	111.3
Big Ten
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	133.1	132.0	133.3	132.8
Michigan	127.9	127.2	127.8	127.6
Penn St.	120.0	119.8	119.7	119.8
Michigan St.	111.6	110.5	110.1	110.7
Maryland	111.0	110.6	109.8	110.4
Indiana	98.4	97.6	96.1	97.4
Rutgers	98.5	97.4	95.7	97.2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Minnesota	115.9	115.0	115.4	115.4
Wisconsin	114.8	114.6	114.1	114.5
Iowa	112.9	111.9	111.1	112.0
Illinois	112.0	112.5	111.1	111.8
Purdue	112.6	111.6	110.6	111.6
Nebraska	102.1	101.7	100.6	101.4
Northwestern	96.5	97.2	95.3	96.3
Big Ten	112.0	111.4	110.8	111.4
Conference USA
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
W. Kentucky	98.1	98.1	99.7	98.6
U T S A	97.5	96.8	98.0	97.5
U A B	96.4	96.2	97.3	96.6
North Texas	93.5	93.5	94.9	94.0
Florida Atlantic	89.1	90.0	88.6	89.2
Middle Tennessee	84.3	84.7	84.6	84.5
U T E P	84.4	84.3	84.0	84.3
Rice	82.3	82.4	82.3	82.3
Louisiana Tech	81.7	82.8	81.1	81.9
Charlotte	74.7	75.4	74.5	74.9
Florida Int’l.	67.7	69.7	66.8	68.1
CUSA	86.3	86.7	86.5	86.5
Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	115.9	114.6	116.2	115.6
BYU	103.7	102.4	103.5	103.2
Liberty	102.2	103.3	103.7	103.1
Army	94.8	95.0	95.0	94.9
Connecticut	83.2	84.4	81.9	83.2
New Mexico St.	74.3	76.2	73.9	74.8
Massachusetts	70.0	70.8	68.2	69.7
Independents	92.0	92.4	91.8	92.1
Mid-American
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio	90.7	92.9	92.6	92.1
Buffalo	89.7	91.9	91.6	91.0
Miami (Ohio)	89.4	91.4	90.7	90.5
Kent St.	87.5	89.1	87.5	88.0
Bowling Green	86.6	86.4	86.7	86.6
Akron	74.8	75.5	74.3	74.9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Toledo	97.6	98.6	98.7	98.3
N. Illinois	91.6	92.0	91.8	91.8
Central Mich.	89.5	91.1	91.7	90.8
Western Mich.	86.7	87.5	87.1	87.1
Ball St.	86.4	87.6	86.8	86.9
Eastern Mich.	85.9	86.7	86.2	86.3
MAC	88.0	89.2	88.8	88.7
Mountain West
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	104.2	103.6	104.9	104.2
Air Force	102.2	102.0	102.9	102.4
Utah St.	90.0	90.1	90.4	90.2
Wyoming	88.3	90.1	89.6	89.3
Colorado St.	81.0	81.8	81.3	81.3
New Mexico	78.6	78.5	77.2	78.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Fresno St.	100.5	100.2	101.2	100.6
San Jose St.	94.9	95.4	95.8	95.4
San Diego St.	92.3	91.7	92.3	92.1
U N L V	87.9	86.5	88.1	87.5
Nevada	81.7	83.1	81.4	82.1
Hawaii	73.2	74.4	74.0	73.8
MWC	89.6	89.8	89.9	89.8
Pac-12
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Utah	116.9	116.3	118.2	117.1
Oregon	117.2	116.7	117.3	117.1
U C L A	112.6	112.6	114.1	113.1
U S C	111.8	112.2	112.8	112.3
Oregon St.	109.6	108.9	110.1	109.5
Washington	107.8	108.0	108.4	108.1
Washington St.	107.0	107.4	108.0	107.5
Arizona St.	102.0	101.5	102.4	102.0
California	98.5	98.7	99.5	98.9
Stanford	99.5	97.7	98.3	98.5
Arizona	96.2	96.1	96.5	96.3
Colorado	86.8	85.3	86.0	86.0
Pac-12	105.5	105.1	106.0	105.5
Southeastern
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	132.7	131.8	133.6	132.7
Tennessee	125.0	125.0	125.8	125.3
Kentucky	109.3	109.7	110.1	109.7
Florida	108.4	109.7	108.9	109.0
South Carolina	107.7	107.3	107.7	107.6
Missouri	104.8	105.1	104.2	104.7
Vanderbilt	92.6	93.2	91.5	92.5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	129.1	128.4	130.0	129.2
L S U	117.7	117.2	117.5	117.5
Mississippi St.	115.5	114.2	114.5	114.7
Ole Miss	114.5	113.0	113.1	113.5
Arkansas	112.9	111.6	113.1	112.5
Texas A&M	108.4	108.8	108.9	108.7
Auburn	106.4	104.9	105.1	105.5
SEC	113.2	112.9	113.1	113.1
Sunbelt
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	97.6	98.8	99.6	98.7
Georgia St.	97.4	97.5	99.4	98.1
James Madison	94.3	95.7	97.7	95.9
Marshall	94.7	95.6	95.4	95.3
Coastal Carolina	93.9	95.0	95.5	94.8
Ga. Southern	92.2	92.3	93.4	92.6
Old Dominion	89.7	89.7	89.7	89.7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Troy	95.3	96.1	97.4	96.3
South Alabama	94.6	95.1	96.4	95.4
Louisiana	91.7	92.1	93.1	92.3
Southern Miss.	87.7	88.2	88.6	88.2
Texas St.	82.8	84.1	84.1	83.7
Arkansas St.	81.6	82.9	82.3	82.3
UL-Monroe	81.8	82.2	81.8	81.9
Sun Belt	91.1	91.8	92.5	91.8

Conference Ratings

#	Conference	Rating
1	Southeastern	113.1
2	Big Ten	111.4
3	Big 12	111.3
4	Pac-12	105.5
5	Atlantic Coast	105.3
6	American Athletic	98.2
7	Independents	92.1
8	Sun Belt	91.8
9	Mountain West	89.8
10	Mid-American	88.7
11	Conference USA	86.5

Playoff & Bowl Projections

Four weeks from today, the College Football Playoffs and Postseason Bowl Game participants will be revealed to the public.  With less than a month to go, it’s time to take a more in-depth look at where things stand and where they might go.

The Playoff Race

After yesterday’s Georgia-Tennessee, Alabama-LSU, and Notre Dame-Clemson games played, it left three teams in the clear-cut lead to be in the top four this week.  Georgia has now penned the lone losses on Oregon and Tennessee, and the Bulldogs will ascend to number one.  Ohio State won ugly at Northwestern yesterday, but they played in severe weather.  Michigan once again spotted an opponent an early lead and then steamrolled Rutgers by four touchdowns.  Those three teams will be in the Big Four on Tuesday.  Who will be number four?  We believe it will be Tennessee, as losing at the new number one team by two touchdowns definitely tops Oregon’s blowout loss in Atlanta to the same team.  Should TCU be in the mix?  They most definitely should, but as so many media experts explain, their name drops them a couple spots in the rankings, just like Cincinnati last year at this time.  If the Horned Frogs win out with three tough games to go, they almost assuredly would move into the top four, but that’s a big if, and at the present time, having watched TCU play most of their games, we don’t see this team sitting at 13-0 on December 4.

If we have to make a wild guess, we will say that Georgia will easily win out in the regular season, even if their game in Starkville this week may be a trap game.  We cannot see any of Tennessee’s final three opponents competing against the Vols.  Georgia stopped their offense, because the Bulldogs have a defense not that much weaker than the Detroit Lions (probably more future Pro Bowl players than the Lions).  Neither Ohio State nor Michigan have much in their way prior to the big game at the Giant Horseshoe.  It won’t be popular, but a Big Ten-SEC Challenge in the Playoffs could be in the offing.  As of today, we have Georgia playing Michigan in the Peach Bowl, and Ohio State playing Tennessee in the Fiesta Bowl.  Oregon might win out and finish 12-1 and have to settle for the Rose Bowl.  We can see TCU actually losing twice in the next month, and maybe having to settle for the Cotton Bowl or even the Alamo Bowl, depending on what UCLA or USC does out West.

The New Year’s Six

One thing that happened this weekend was the elimination of Alabama and most likely Clemson from the Playoff picture.  With LSU’s win, the Tigers have a tough rebound game at Arkansas, and if Brian Kelly can lead the Bayou Bengals into Fayetteville and win, they almost have the SEC West clinched.  At 10-2 and a loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, we believe the Sugar Bowl will take them in a heartbeat.  Where would that leave a 10-2 Alabama?  We think they would still get an Orange Bowl bid, where they might face their former nemesis Clemson.  The Rose Bowl would get the Pac-12 champion that would not be Playoff bound, so we’ll slot Oregon in there for now but not rule out the winner of the USC-UCLA game.  That leaves the Cotton Bowl.  The Group of Five team that finishes the highest in the ratings will automatically get a bid here.  If that bid was extended today, the Tulane Green Wave would receive it, but TU must beat Central Florida, Cincinnati, and then one of those two again in the AAC Championship Game to get to 12-1 and secure the bid.  Should TU falter, and we think that’s a very high possibility, the next team in line, one that strengthened their resume with a road win against an SEC team, would be Liberty, if the Flames win out (a much higher probability than Tulane).  The last at-large team in the field would most likely be Penn State at 10-2, but the number two team in the Pac-12 could beat the Nittany Lions out.  With losses to just two teams that we pick to be in the Playoffs, we’d go with Penn State to edge out any two-loss Pac-12 team.

American Athletic

As we previously mentioned, we do not see Tulane winning out, and should the Green Wave lose to both Central Florida and Cincinnati, they won’t even make the AAC Championship Game.  If they beat UCF in New Orleans, they would have to beat Cinti in consecutive weeks to get there, once in the Queen City and then once in the Crescent City.  If the Bearcats win out, and Tulane beats UCF, then Cinti would host Tulane in consecutive weeks.  If UCF wins out, and Cincinnati tops Tulane, then the Bearcats would have to go to Orlando in the conference championship game.

Elsewhere in the AAC, with SMU’s record-setting basketball score win over Houston, the Mustangs are almost a lock to get a bowl bid.  East Carolina is already bowl eligible.  Houston and Memphis have work to do, but the schedule is favorable for both.  As for the Cougars, Dana Holgersen may not be coaching the team by bowl season.

Atlantic Coast & Notre Dame

A half-dozen teams will have to lose games before Clemson has a remote chance to sneak into the playoffs, assuming the Tigers can win out.  If they play like they have the last few weeks, beating North Carolina in the ACC Championship Game would be 50-50 at best, and they might even be vulnerable against South Carolina in the regular season finale.  At best, CU can hope for another ACC title and a trip to the Orange Bowl.  North Carolina may be the weakest 1-loss team from a Power 5 Conference since the 20th Century.  The Tar Heels keep coming up with fourth quarter heroics to be mediocre teams.  We don’t believe Mack Brown’s Heels can make it to a New Year’s Bowl Game, and they need to finish better than one game ahead of Notre Dame just to get the Cheez-it Bowl bid.

Notre Dame can receive any of the ACC’s allotted bowl bids after the Orange Bowl as long as their won-loss record is within one game of the next highest ACC team.  If the Irish lose to USC and finish 9-3, they will be able to jump over a 10-2 team, but not an 11-2 team.  What better bowl to send the Irish to in December than one in Boston?  They’d sell out Fenway Park like a Yankees-Red Sox game in October.

With Notre Dame, this league figures to have 10 bowl eligible teams, which means all the first tier bowl bids will be taken, and one second tier bowl bid will be used.  We believe the Gasparilla Bowl will get the final ACC team.

Big 12

Had Texas been able to edge Alabama in September and not lose their star QB for a few games, the Longhorns might be in the Playoff mix.  The best the Longhorns can do now is to play spoiler and knock TCU out of the Playoff mix.  If Quinn Ewers can remain healthy and not have another three interception day like he did against Oklahoma State, the Longhorns might win out and become Big 12 Champions, getting a Sugar Bowl bid.

TCU must beat Texas and Baylor and then whoever makes the Big 12 Championship Game in order to get to the necessary 13-0 they will need to make the Playoffs, and it looks like too much of a longshot.  It is going to be rough just getting to the Sugar Bowl, and two losses most likely banishes the Frogs to the Alamo Bowl.

Elsewhere in the league, Kansas has now assured themselves of their first bowl bid in 14 years.  Texas Tech and Iowa State are now fighting it out for the last bowl bid in this league, and we believe there will be eight teams playing in the postseason.  If no Big 12 team gets to the Playoffs, there will be one extra team to fill in as an at-large bowl participant, and it is our belief that they will replace a spot that the SEC cannot fill.

Big Ten

We show three of the bowl eligible teams playing in either the Playoffs or New Year’s Six, so Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State being taken off the table means the other New Year’s Day games against SEC teams will have lesser teams.  The Citrus Bowl is likely to go to the West Division Champion that will then get clobbered in the Big Ten Championship Game.  At the moment, even with a loss this weekend, Illinois has the upper hand.  The Reliaquest (Outback) bowl bid would then probably go to the West Division runner-up. 

There should be 10 Bowl Eligible teams with many of the also-rans beating up on each other, so the Big Ten will be able to fill its allotment all the way down to the Quick Lane Bowl.  That requires Michigan State to win two more games, but we think Sparty does that.

Conference USA

It is the weakest overall conference in FBS football, but geography is on CUSA’s side.  This year, the two best teams are in the Lone Star State as UTSA and North Texas have moved to the top of the standings and figure to play in the title game.  Western Kentucky, Rice, Florida Atlantic, and Middle Tennessee are quite mediocre, but all four could end up with six losses and become bowl eligible.  The last bowl bid available figures to come down to the number six CUSA team and the number eight Mountain West team.  Because that final bowl spot is likely to be from a game east of the Mississippi River, a 6-6 CUSA team should get in over a 6-6 MWC team.

Independents

Notre Dame is not counted as an independent since they can receive an ACC bid.  Army and BYU are guaranteed bowl bids if they are bowl eligible.  BYU should sneak in, but Army is looking at a potential 5-7 or 4-8 season.

Liberty will get a bowl bid, and if the Flames win out, they could be feeling some soft Cotton in Texas.  The big surprise team that few people have taken notice to since September is Connecticut.  The Huskies could very well become bowl eligible in Jim Mora Jr.’s first season in Storrs.

Mid-American

Toledo frequently appears to be the most talented team in the MAC, but the Rockets always stub their toes and fail to win the conference championship.  They will have to look hard for something to bang their feet on this year.  Losing another game would be a major Rocket malfunction.  The rest of this league has a lot of parity, but there should be seven bowl eligible teams the first Sunday in December.  All seven will get bowl bids.  The question is, “who will be forced to spend December in Boise?”

Mountain West

This has been another down year in the MWC, and with rumors swirling that more than one team could be moving to the Pac-12 or even Big 12, this league has lost some prestige.  Having Boise State no longer be great has hurt it even more.  The Broncos lost to a so-so BYU team Saturday, and their upcoming game at Wyoming may determine the Mountain Division champion.  Air Force and Utah State should also receive bowl bids on this side of the Rockies.

On the West side, Fresno State started slowly but is 10 to 14 points better than they were in early September.  San Jose State can still win the division, but the Bulldogs look like they have this race under control.  San Diego State also figures to be bowl eligible on this side.  Once considered a contender for the division title, UNLV is looking at a 6-6 record and quite possibly becoming the lone bowl eligible team that does not receive an invitation.

Pac-12

Too much parity has been the bane of this league for several years.  This year, there is a big division of haves and have-nots, and it likely means that the league will do no better than place a team in the Rose Bowl.  Oregon’s 40+ point loss to Georgia cannot be overlooked, and if the Ducks win out and finish 12-1, two or three teams ahead of the Ducks today will have to lose.  It won’t be easy for Oregon to win out.

UCLA, USC, and Utah are still in the mix for the Pac-12 title, and all three are talented enough to beat Oregon in December.  If UCLA or USC wins out and Oregon wins out, the loser of the Pac-12 Championship Game would still have a fair chance at receiving the Cotton Bowl bid as the last NY6 team.

Oregon State, Washington, and Washington State will also be bowl eligible and will satisfy the rest of the league allotment with no extra teams.  Oregon State could play spoiler in the Civil War game with the Ducks.

SEC

The overwhelming power of this league is most likely to leave the conference one team short of filling its bowl spots.  We see Georgia and Tennessee both making the playoff, and we see LSU and Alabama both getting NY6 bids.  We also see just 10 SEC teams becoming bowl eligible now that Texas A&M has collapsed and Arkansas tripped up at home against Liberty.  The Arkansas-Missouri winner on the final weekend should get the final bowl bid.  As of today, we have the Music City Bowl being the odd bowl out needing an at-large team, and the Big 12 is full of teams with fans that would love some country music during the holidays.

Sun Belt

The SBC pecking order is unique, and it is difficult to place teams in bowls because of it.  ESPN gets the first choice of teams to place in one of the bowl games they sponsor.  It doesn’t have to be the number one team in the league, just the number one choice.  Next, the New Orleans Bowl gets to choose its team after ESPN has taken its first choice.  The 3rd and 4th teams once again are chosen by ESPN for their bowls, and then the 5th team is chosen by the Lending Tree Bowl.  There figures to be seven bowl eligible teams from this league, which is fast becoming the second best G5 conference.  All seven will receive bids.

Bowl	Team	Team
Bahamas	Florida Atlantic	Bowling Green
Cure	South Alabama	Air Force
Fenway	Notre Dame	Cincinnati
New Mexico	Rice	San Jose St.
L.A.	Washington St.	Fresno St.
Lending Tree	Buffalo	Georgia Southern
Las Vegas	USC	Kentucky
Frisco	BYU	San Diego St.
Myrtle Beach	Ball St.	Appalachian St.
Famous Idaho Potato	Eastern Michigan	Utah St.
Boca Raton	Marshall	Connecticut
New Orleans	Western Kentucky	Coastal Carolina
Armed Forces	Tulane	UTSA
Independence	East Carolina	Southern Miss.
Gasparilla	Louisville	Houston
Hawaii	North Texas	Boise St.
Quick Lane	Michigan St.	Miami (O)
Camellia	Toledo	Troy
First Responder	Kansas	SMU
Birmingham	Memphis	Middle Tennessee
Guaranteed Rate	Oklahoma St.	Purdue
Military	Wake Forest	Central Florida
Liberty	Baylor	South Carolina
Holiday	Duke	Washington
Texas	Oklahoma	Missouri
Pinstripe	Pittsburgh	Wisconsin
Cheez-It	North Carolina	Kansas St.
Alamo	TCU	Utah
Duke’s Mayo	North Carolina St.	Maryland
Tony the Tiger Sun	Syracuse	Oregon St.
Arizona	Ohio U	Wyoming
Orange	Clemson	Alabama
Music City	Iowa	Texas Tech
Sugar	LSU	Texas
TaxSlayer	Florida St.	Mississippi St.
Peach	Georgia	Michigan
Fiesta	Ohio St.	Tennessee
Reliaquest (Outback)	Minnesota	Florida
Citrus	Illinois	Ole Miss
Cotton	UCLA	Liberty
Rose	Oregon	Penn St.
National Championship	Georgia	Ohio St.

Advertisement