The Pi-Rate Ratings

February 6, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Conference Tournament Sneak Peak

The calendar seems to be accelerating these days, as conference tournament action just crept up on our PiRate Ship.  Three weeks from today, teams will begin playing for an automatic bid to the Big Dance.

The PiRate Ratings have created a guide for you to follow along online to see what’s what and who’s in and out.  As each tournament bracket becomes set, we will show you each team’s path to punching a Dance ticket, which teams are in line for at-large bids, and which teams can take out the Kleenex and shed some tears, maybe even necessitating the use of pink-shaded paper when delivering a message to the head coach.

There are 32 Division 1 basketball conferences, and in a 68-team tournament, 36 at-large teams will be selected.  Here is a preliminary breakdown on how each conference looks as of today.

American Athletic

Houston (10-1/22-2) has a strong chance to get a #1 bid, if the Cougars continue winning.  They are the only lock at the present time, because former near sure thing Memphis (7-3/17-6) keeps losing games they shouldn’t lose.  Three other teams are on the radar where a hot finish could get them into the discussion on Selection Sunday.  Cincinnati (7-4/16-8), Tulane (8-3/15-7), and Temple (8-3/14-10) most likely would have to get at least to the semifinals of the AAC Tournament and maybe make the Championship Game.

Atlantic Coast

Every year, some pundit or metric says the ACC is down.  If you think that 10 ACC teams should always make the Field, then yes it is down.  Because North Carolina and Duke aren’t the top two teams in the standings, the ACC is being dismissed as a potential championship league this year, but we wouldn’t be surprised if an ACC team makes the Final Four and if more than one make the Elite Eight.

As of today, it looks like seven teams could get into the tournament.  Surprising Clemson (10-3/18-6) has a half-game lead over Virginia (9-3/17-4) and surprising Pittsburgh (9-3/16-7).  Of the three, we think a hot finish by Virginia could make them a Final Four contender, because the Cavaliers are close to having the perfect resume for a Final Four team.

The other four teams that would be in the Field today are: North Carolina State (9-4/19-5), Miami (9-4/18-5), Duke (8-4/17-6), and North Carolina (7-5/15-8).

Three more teams, Wake Forest (7-6/15-9), Syracuse (7-6/14-10), and Virginia Tech (4-8/14-9) are in contention for bids but have a lot of work yet to do.

America East

This is a one bid league, and the perpetual top AEC team has slowly and deliberately climbed to the top again.  Vermont (7-2/13-10) has a 5-game winning streak and has a full game lead over the team that was hot at the start of the season, UMass Lowell (7-4/19-6).  The AEC Tournament is played on the home courts of the better seed, so getting home court advantage for the tournament might make it quite difficult to knock off the Catamounts.

Atlantic 10

In past years, three and four teams made the field from the A-10, but this year, it looks like a one-bid league.  The A-10 Tournament is in Brooklyn, and it will be a wide-open affair.  Current leader VCU (9-2/18-6) is not a clear-cut favorite, because this league tends to have more close games than blowouts.  The Rams need their defense to create offense, and in the postseason, offense becomes more important than defense by a little.

Saint Louis (7-3/15-8) has more offense than VCU, but the Billikens have vulnerabilities that can be exploited by other A-10 teams.  Dayton (7-4/15-9) may have the best talent in the league, but the Flyers have made numerous mistakes in games, where defensive lapses or lack of ball control has hurt them.  Saint Bonaventure (7-4/13-11) has improved by several points per game in the last three weeks, and the Bonnies have crept up the standings.  Coach Mark Schmidt has A-10 Tournament title success in recent years, so this is a team to keep an eye on.  Fordham (6-4/18-5) plays excellent pressure defense but has size limitations and can be exploited inside.  Duquesne (5-5/15-8) is a dark horse, but the Dukes haven’t been in the NCAA Tournament since 1977.

Atlantic Sun

This is definitely a one-bid league, and recent ASUN dynasty team Liberty (10-2/19-6) shares the lead with Kennesaw St. (10-2/18-7).  Neither team is a slam-dunk sure thing to make the Championship Game in this balanced league.  Keep an eye on Eastern Kentucky (9-3/16-9), where Coach A.W. Hamilton has the Colonels playing their typical disruptive defense and up-tempo offense.  His teams don’t start games tight like teams that play more patient basketball.  In the postseason, this style frequently pulls off upsets, but it is also vulnerable to laying an egg.  Lipscomb (7-5/15-10) just beat Liberty, and has a favorable schedule down the stretch to sneak into the 3-hole in the seeding.

Big 12

This is the best conference in college basketball this year, and a team with a losing conference record could very well make the Big Dance.  It’s been a year full of anxiety down in Austin with a mid-season coaching change necessitated by off-court actions, but Texas (8-2/19-4) has made it back to the top of the standings.  Iowa State (7-3/16-6) easily handled Kansas (6-4/18-5) over the weekend to move into second place.  These three are locks for the Dance.

Baylor (6-4/17-6), Kansas State (6-4/17-5), and TCU (6-4/17-6) are close to locks and need just to keep playing on their current paces.  Oklahoma State (5-5/14-9) is in good shape and short of a meltdown should be in the discussion on Selection Sunday.  West Virginia (3-7/14-9) may have the best chance of any team currently 4 games under .500 in their league to still make the field as an at-large team.  Oklahoma (2-8/12-11) is on the outside, looking in, even with a 24-point win over Alabama.  

Big East

The conference tournament at Madison Square Garden will be one of the most exciting of all this year, as it is in most seasons, because there are six teams with legitimate designs on the trophy.  Five of the six are at-large worthy today.  Marquette (11-2/19-5) has a 5-game winning streak, and Shaka Smart knows how to win in the postseason.  Xavier (11-2/19-5) has four victories over ranked opponents and Archie Miller knows how to win in the postseason.  Creighton (9-3/15-8) and Providence (9-3/17-6) will hear their names called on Selection Sunday, as will Connecticut (7-6/18-6).  Seton Hall (8-5/15-9) is in contention for an at-large spot, and Coach Shaheen Holloway has had recent tournament success at Saint Peter’s.

Big Sky

This is a one-bid league, and Eastern Washington (12-0/18-7) has lapped the field with 14 consecutive wins.  Montana State (10-2/17-8) is the top contender.  Any other team that wins the conference tournament could be looking at a First Four game in Dayton.

Big South

This is a one-bid league and probably #16-seed bid at that.  Longwood (8-4/16-9) led the race throughout most of January, but the Lancers fell behind UNC Asheville (10-2/18-7) and the red-hot Radford Highlanders (10-2/16-9), who have now won nine games in a row.  UNCA does not have the typical resume for postseason success, as they get beat in the hustle stats that become much more important in March.  Longwood won the automatic bid last year but quickly lost in the Round of 64 by more than 30 points.

Big Ten

The Big Ten figures to get at least seven teams into the Field, but this conference has disappointed year after year for the last 20 seasons.  Heavily favored teams have been upset early, as mid-major champions with more quickness have defeated more physical Big Ten teams.  Chief among the disappointing is Purdue (11-2/22-2).  Is this the year that Zach Edey leads the Boilermakers back to the Final Four for the first time since Joe Barry Carroll led PU there in 1980?  Since the Gene Keady era began in West Lafayette in 1981 and through his protege Matt Painter’s now 17th year, the Boilermakers have made 30 of the 41 NCAA Tournament fields, frequently with a top 4 seed.  PU has made just two Elite 8’s and eight Sweet 16’s in those 30 seasons, and there is a valid reason why even as a #1-seed three times, they have not had a lot of tournament success.  

Purdue has been an excellent half-court possession team in the regular seasons for the last 30 years, but the Boilermakers have not been up to snuff in the hustle points, especially in forcing turnovers and steals, where the elite teams usually perform quite well.  Just like Billy Beane stated in Moneyball that his methods did not work in the Playoffs, Boilerball doesn’t work in the NCAA Tournament.  Could this finally be the year where PU crosses the rubicon and makes it to the third weekend?  They have a dominating presence on the glass unlike most years in the past, but once again, they do not force turnovers and pick up steals that lead to cheap baskets.  Winning the title with a negative turnover margin isn’t something that has been done often since 1939.

Other Big Ten teams that figure to receive invitations are: Rutgers (8-4/16-7), Indiana (7-5/16-7), Illinois (7-5/16-7), Maryland (7-5/16-7), Northwestern (7-5/16-7), Iowa (7-5/15-8), and Michigan State (6-6/14-9).  Michigan (7-5/13-10) needs to close the season on a big winning streak to get onto the bubble.  The last time the Big Ten produced a national champion was 23 years ago, when Michigan State cut down the nets.  That’s a long time for a league that is supposed to be one of the top three.

Big West

This is a one-bid league in a very interesting conference race.  UC Santa Barbara (9-2/18-4) and UC-Irvine (8-3/15-8) have dominated the league in recent years, but Long Beach State (8-4/14-10) pulled of the upset last year to get the bid.  LBSU has a 6-game winning streak. LBSU relies more on inside play than hitting threes from the perimeter, and they are most likely to play more consistently in the Big West Tournament.

Hawaii (8-4/17-7) and UC Riverside (8-4/15-9) are forces to be reckoned with.  They are capable of beating any of the top three, making this a 5-team race for the bid.

Colonial Athletic

Until last week, Charleston (10-2/22-3) looked like a runaway choice to win the one bid from this league and maybe even earn a #11 or #12 seed.  From out of nowhere came the Hofstra Pride (10-2/17-8) with a 5-game winning streak that included beating C of C in Charleston.  Coach Speedy Claxton has done a bang-up job since taking over for legendary coach Joe Mihalich two years ago.  Claxton is a big hero in Hempstead, NY, where he donated a lot of money to help build the arena in which his jersey is retired.  He played for Jay Wright, and Wright proteges do quite well on the Eastern Seaboard.

Conference USA

This may become a two-bid league if somebody upsets Florida Atlantic (12-1/22-2) in the CUSA Tournament in Frisco, Texas.  Hometown favorite North Texas (10-3/19-5) has a pair of four-point losses to the Owls, and those four points can easily be made up when a Dance Ticket is on the line.  

UAB (8-5/17-8) beat FAU last week, and the Blazers have the talent to win this tournament.  An improving dark horse is Middle Tennessee (8-5/15-9).

If you want to see two college basketball games live at the same time, this tournament allows you to do so, from a large distance.  CUSA has two basketball courts set up at the Dallas Cowboys practice facility, separated by a thick curtain behind the bleachers.  By sitting deep in the end zone at curtain level extended, you can view both courts simultaneously.

Horizon

This is another one-bid league, and this is not a big year in the HL.  No team is powerful enough to pose as a legitimate surprise Sweet 16 team or even a Round of 32 team.  Youngstown State (11-3/19-6) has a fun offense to watch play, but the Penguins are probably another year away from being good enough to win a tournament game.  Keep an eye on Coach Jerrod Calhoun.  He won big at Division 2 Fairmont State, and he’s slowly built the Penguins into the top HL program. 

Milwaukee (10-3/16-7) and Northern Kentucky (10-4/15-10) figure to be the top contenders to YSU.

Ivy

The top four in the league make the conference tournament, which will be played at Jadwin Gymnasium at Princeton.  The home team Tigers (7-2/16-6) have raced past Cornell (5-4/15-7) and lead Yale (6-3/16-6) by a game.  Penn (5-4/13-11) and Brown (5-4/12-10) are tied with Cornell for third, and there is room for two of the three in the conference tournament.  Yale is the hot team, and the Bulldogs may give the Ivy its best chance for an upset win.

Metro Atlantic

It looked like Iona (9-3/16-7) with Rick Pitino coaching was the class of the league, but the Gaels hit a rough patch in January.  Siena (9-4/15-9) briefly took command of the conference lead but hit a rough patch in February.  The hot team de jour is Rider (10-3/13-9), with a 7-game winning streak.  

The one-bid for this league is up for grabs, and if there is a team from back in the pack with a slim chance to sneak up and win the automatic bid, it is Niagara (8-5/13-9).

Mid-American

Kent State (8-2/18-5) led the MAC by two games through January, as the Golden Flashes’ stingy pressure man-to-man defense devastated opponents.  They ceded their conference lead and fell into a second place tie due to two red hot teams.  Akron (9-1/17-6) has won eight games in a row, and Toledo (8-2/18-6) has won their last seven.  One of these three should win the one automatic bid, but there are others that could go on a run.

Mideastern Athletic

If you are old enough to have watched college basketball in the mid-1970’s, you might remember the 1974 NIT.  Maryland Eastern Shore was 26-1 and a logical top seed in the NAIA Tournament.  However, some African American leaders, led by the Reverend Jesse Jackson, lobbied the NIT to invite the Hawks, and he pressured the tournament enough to submit a bid to the NAIA program, the first and only time this happened.

UMES proved worthy by winning its first NIT game over Manhattan before falling by a deuce to Jacksonville in the second round.

That is the only real postseason success UMES (6-1/14-8) has had in the NCAA.  The Hawks are one of the most entertaining teams in college basketball.  This team is nothing like that great 1974 team that featured a fantastic inside game; they are more like the 1964 UCLA Bruins.  No starter is over 6 foot 5.  They are basically a 5-guard lineup, and they are defensive pests.  The Hawks created instant offense by stealing the ball and forcing turnovers, and then they limit three-point shooting on defense.  Plus, this team is loaded with experienced players, the type that can play above its expectations in March.  Should UMES get into the Tournament, they will still likely be placed in the First Four round in Dayton, but they will be really fun to watch play.

Of course, the MEAC is a one-bid league, and UMES must hold off Norfolk State (5-2/16-7), Howard (6-1/14-10 & 6 in a row), and Morgan State (4-3/12-11).

Missouri Valley

Arch Madness is going to be the most interesting in years this season, because the Valley is a lot better than most people realize, even if it remains a one-bid league.  This is a conference to look at in a potential double-digit NCAA Tournament team upsetting a single digit tournament team.

The race is currently tied with four teams, and if these four make the conference tournament semifinals, it may make Arch Madness the very best final two rounds of any conference tournament!

Drake (10-4/19-6) may have the best shot at winning a game in the Dance.  The Bulldogs are a 5-tool team, better than average shooting threes, getting inside baskets, playing defense, winning the rebound war, and having positive turnover margin.  The Bulldogs also have this league’s lone win over a ranked team.

The other three contenders are Bradley (10-4/17-8), Southern Illinois (10-4/18-7), and Belmont (10-4/17-8).  

Mountain West

Here is a conundrum.  The MWC has more tournament worthy teams than the Pac-12 at the moment.  Five teams deserve to be seriously considered, and even though the Selection Committee claims that they pay no attention to the number of teams from a conference that receive a bid, they definitely do but do it subtly.  If the Pac-12 only has three worthy teams with a fourth team on the Bubble, while this league has five tournament worthy teams, it is almost a metaphysical certitude that the fourth Pac-12 team will get in at the expense of the fight MWC team, and the Committee Chair will have statistical reasons to vindicate that selection.  Remember that there are three types of lies, and number three on the list is statistics.  No matter what the liability, the Committee will choose that one, whichever it is, to show that the other nine factors showing the MWC team to be better are not valid.

Editorial over.  The five teams that deserve to be in the Big Dance today are San Diego State (9-2/18-5), Nevada (8-3/18-6), Boise State (8-3/18-6), New Mexico (6-4/19-4), and Utah State (8-3/19-5).  We expect one of these five to get the shaft on Selection Sunday.

Northeast

This figures at the moment to be the weakest conference, and almost a sure bet to send its one-bid champion to the First Four in Dayton.  Unfortunately for the NEC, its current best team is not eligible for the NCAA Tournament due to its transition phase to Division 1 (a rule we find ridiculous).  Stonehill (8-3/12-14) can’t play in the NCAA or NIT this year.  Third place Merrimack (7-4/9-16) is also ineligible for the same reason.  That leaves Fairleigh-Dickinson (7-3/14-11) as the best bet, with Sacred Heart (6-5/13-13) and Wagner (5-5/12-9) the top contenders.  Last year’s Conference Tournament Champion Bryant is no longer in the league.

Ohio Valley

Thisone-bid league has been ravaged by team defections to other leagues, namely its former top four programs.  Only two of the original eight teams still remain in the league.  One of those two is Morehead State (9-3/16-9) leads the league with six other teams within striking distance of getting a #1 or #2 seed, which in this league gives them a bye to the semifinals.  One of those teams contending for a triple bye is Southern Indiana (6-6/13-12), but the Screaming Eagles are not eligible for the NCAA Tournament.  SIU Edwardsville (7-5/16-9) may be the best road team in the league this year, and the Cougars are riding high following a 55-foot game-winning buzzer beater on Saturday.

Pac-12

The Conference of Champions hasn’t had a basketball champion since 1997!  The league might even be only the third best in the West!  When you think about how far this league has fallen, if you eliminate UCLA in the John Wooden years, not much has changed in 60 years.

Not much else has changed that UCLA (10-2/19-4) is the premiere team in the league.  Coach Mick Cronin is a Rick Pitino protege, and he knows how to win in tournament action.  Cronin’s team has to be considered a strong Final Four contender this year, because the Bruins have all the necessary criteria to get there–a very experienced roster and coach, excellent defensive efficiency, almost great offensive efficiency, and outright dominance in the hustle stats.  The offensive efficiency is a tad lower than National Championship standards, but a hot finish could put them there.  If the Bruins run the table from here, they are getting a #1 seed.

Of the rest of the field, Arizona (10-3/21-3) is a lock and still has a chance to move up to the 1-seed line.  USC (9-3/17-6) isn’t a lock yet, but if the season ended today, the Trojans would be in the Field.  

Three others still have a chance to get to the good side of the Bubble.  Utah (9-5/16-9), Oregon (8-5/14-10), and Arizona State (7-6/16-8) must go on substantial winning streaks to break through.

Patriot

This is a one-bid league with no clear-cut slam dunk favorite.  Colgate (11-1/17-8) is close to securing the top seed in the conference tournament, and the Raiders have a highly efficient offense.  Their defense is not scary enough to pull off a big upset as a #15 seed in the Dance.  

Top contenders for the bid include: Lehigh (9-3/14-9), American (7-5/15-8), who just beat Colgate, and Army (7-5/13-12).

Southeastern

The SEC is always considered down when Kentucky (7-3/16-7) isn’t running away with the conference championship and staying in the top 5 nationally.  The Cats aren’t out of the picture for winning the SEC Tournament, where Nashville will become Lexington South in March.

Alabama (10-0/20-3) has to be considered a national title contender.  Coach Nate Oats has perhaps the nation’s top player in Brandon Miller, the closest thing to a college Lebron James.

Tennessee (8-2/19-4), Arkansas (5-5/16-7), and Auburn (7-3/17-6) will get bids, but none of this trio have a Final Four resume.  Missouri (5-5/17-6) might have the numbers to sneak into the Sweet 16 in year one under Dennis Gates.

Texas A&M (8-2/16-7)  is tied for second in the league, but the Aggies played a weak non-conference slate and have more work to do before being considered a definite Tourney team.  Florida (6-4/13-10) and Mississippi State (3-7/15-8) are within shouting distance with hot finishes, but as of today are NIT teams.

Southern

This is a one-bid league this year, as there are multiple fairly good teams but no teams that merit discussion for at-large bids.  Furman (10-2/19-6) is competent in every aspect but defending the perimeter.  The Paladins have the best chance at winning as a #13 or #14 seed in the Dance, but it’s still a slim chance.  Others in contention are Samford (10-2/16-9) and  UNC Greensboro (10-2/16-9).  

Southland

This one-bid league is another in danger of sending its champion to the First Four in Dayton.  No team has shone above the others this year, so the conference tournament should be wide open.  Northwestern State (8-3/16-8), Texas A&M Corpus Christi (8-3/15-9), and Southeast Louisiana (8-3/14-10) figure to provide the championship game combatants.  NW State has a ranked victory over TCU.

Southwestern Athletic

This league rarely has a Big Dance participant with an outstanding won-loss record, and that’s a result of the members in this league being forced to play a lot of road games against power conference opponents, just so they can cash a check and pay the bills.  The SWAC usually competes for bottom team in the NCAA field and almost always sends its one-bid champion to the First Four in Dayton.

This year, three teams may be good enough to at least win that First Four game.  Southern (8-2/12-11) is led by a Pitino protege.  Coach Sean Woods was one of Kentucky’s famed “Unforgettables,” and his team plays the same way UK played back then–press hard and take a lot of three-point shots.  The Jaguars’ top competitors are Alcorn State (7-2/10-11) and Grambling (7-3/14-8).  Grambling has two Power Conference wins this year, against Colorado and Vanderbilt.

Summit

This race was over in mid-January, as Oral Roberts (12-0/21-4) ran away from the field like the 1927 Yankees did to the rest of the American League.  All four of the Titans losses have come to teams that woud be in the NCAA Tournament if it began today.  ORU has profited through the Transfer Portal, where Coach Paul Mills added two SEC transfers to an experienced roster.  Multiple starters from the NCAA Tournament team that beat Ohio State and Florida to make the Sweet 16 and almost beat Arkansas for a chance at the Elite 8 are on this team.  They could be scary if they are in your favorite Power Conference team’s bracket.  

Among the rivals trying to steal this league’s bid are South Dakota State (9-4/14-11), Western Illinois (8-5/15-9), and UMKC (6-6/10-15).  If anybody other than ORU gets this bid, it will be shocking.

Sun Belt

Is it possible that this league deserves two bids?  Louisiana (10-2/20-4) and Southern Miss. (10-2/21-4) are solid teams but haven’t played a hard enough schedule to merit discussion.  Neither is guaranteed a spot in the conference tournament title game, because James Madison (8-4/17-8) and Marshall (8-4/19-6) are both talented enough to win three games in three days.  Any one of these four teams have enough talent to scare a Power Conference opponent in the Round of 64.

West Coast

This is a definite two-bid league with the chance for a third team getting in by winning the automatic bid.

Saint Mary’s (10-0/21-4) just staged a great second half comeback to beat Gonzaga (8-2/19-5) in overtime, likely giving the Gaels enough cushion to win the conference championship and earning the #1 seed.

Loyola Marymount (6-5/16-9) beat Gonzaga in January, and the Lions may have their best team since Bo Kimble shot his one-handed free throws in a memorable Big Dance.

BYU (6-5/16-10) is having an off year for Coach Mark Pope, but Pope has the coaching knowledge to prepare a gameplan on the quick and win in conference tournament play.

Santa Clara (5-5/17-8) gives the WCC five good teams.  The Broncos played SMC and Gonzaga close in January.

Western Athletic

This is a one-bid league with one team that could be a dark horse Sweet 16 candidate, if they can win the conference tournament.  Sam Houston State (7-4/17-6) is currently in a three-way tie for third in the league.  The Bearkats are quite difficult to prepare to play by a team that hasn’t seen them before.  Teams that play against their pressure defense come away thinking they have played against 6 defenders, because they always seem to have a double team on the ball with no open players for the ball handler to pass the ball.  SHSU limits shot opportunities, makes those opportunities tend to be poor percentage shots, and if a team tries to hold onto the ball too long, the Bearkats can take it away.

Utah Valley (9-2/18-6) is the current league leader.  The Wolverines solved SHSU’s defense and beat them by 16 points in January.  UVU is led by former Stanford standout and NBA banger Mark “Mad Dog” Madsen.

Here are the different styles of regular bracket seeding schedules for a 4, 8, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, and 15 team conference tournament.  There are no 9-team tournaments this year.

4-Team Conference Tournament Bracket
Semifinals
#1 Seed vs. # 4 Seed
#2 Seed vs. #3 Seed
8-Team Conference Tournament Bracket
Quarterfinals
#1 Seed vs. #8 Seed
#4 Seed vs. #5 Seed
#2 Seed vs. #7 Seed
#3 Seed vs. #6 Seed
Semifinals
1-8 winner vs. 4-5 winner
2-7 winner vs. 3-6 winner
10-Team Conference Tournament Bracket
1st Round
#7 Seed vs. #10 Seed
#8 Seed vs. #9 Seed
Quarterfinals
#1 Seed vs. 8-9 winner
#4 Seed vs. #5 Seed
#2 Seed vs. 7-10 winner
#3 Seed vs. #6 Seed
Semifinals
1-8-9 winner vs. 4-5 winner
2-7-10 winner vs. 3-6 winner
11-Team Conference Tournament Bracket
1st Round
#6 Seed vs. #11 Seed
#7 Seed vs. #10 Seed
#8 Seed vs. #9 Seed
Quarterfinals
#1 Seed vs. 8-9 winner
#4 Seed vs. #5 Seed
#2 Seed vs. 7-10 winner
#3 Seed vs. 6-11 winner
Semifinals
1-8-9 winner vs. 4-5 winner
2-7-10 winner vs. 3-6-11 winner
12-Team Conference Tournament Bracket
1st Round
#5 Seed vs. #12 Seed
#6 Seed vs. #11 Seed
#7 Seed vs. #10 Seed
#8 Seed vs. #9 Seed
Quarterfinals
#1 Seed vs. 8-9 winner
#4 Seed vs. 5-12 winner
#2 Seed vs. 7-10 winner
#3 Seed vs. 6-11 winner
Semifinals
1-8-9 winner vs. 4-5-12 winner
2-7-10 winner vs. 3-6-11 winner
13-Team Conference Tournament Bracket
1st Round
#12 Seed vs. #13 Seed
2nd Round
#5 Seed vs. 12-13 winner
#6 Seed vs. #11 Seed
#7 Seed vs. #10 Seed
#8 Seed vs. #9 Seed
Quarterfinals
#1 Seed vs. 8-9 winner
#4 Seed vs. 5-12-13 winner
#2 Seed vs. 7-10 winner
#3 Seed vs. 6-11 winner
Semifinals
1-8-9 winner vs. 4-5-12-13 winner
2-7-10 winner vs. 3-6-11 winner
14-Team Tournament Bracket
1st Round
#11 Seed vs, #14 Seed
#12 Seed vs. #13 Seed
2nd Round
#5 Seed vs. 12-13 winner
#6 Seed vs. 11-14 winner
#7 Seed vs. #10 Seed
#8 Seed vs. #9 Seed
Quarterfinals
#1 Seed vs. 8-9 winner
#4 Seed vs. 5-12-13 winner
#2 Seed vs. 7-10 winner
#3 Seed vs. 6-11-14 winner
Semifinals
1-8-9 winner vs. 4-5-12-13 winner
2-7-10 winner vs. 3-6-11-14 winner
15-Team Tournament Bracket
1st Round
#10 Seed vs. #15 Seed
#11 Seed vs. #14 Seed
#12 Seed vs. #13 Seed
2nd Round
#5 Seed vs. 12-13 winner
#6 Seed vs. 11-14 winner
#7 Seed vs. 10-15 winner
#8 Seed vs. #9 Seed
Quarterfinals
#1 Seed vs. 8-9 winner
#4 Seed vs. 5-12-13 winner
#2 Seed vs. 7-10-15 winner
#3 Seed vs. 6-11-14 winner

Here is a look at the conference tournament schedules, sites, and formats.  If there is no footnote, then the conference uses the standard format shown in the above brackets.

1 = 1st Round; 2 = 2nd Round; Q = Quarterfinals; S = Semifinals; C = Championship

Conference Tournaments 2023Teams inFebruaryM A R C H
ConferenceSiteBracket2728123456789101112
America EastBetter Seed Home8 of 9QSC
American AthleticFort Worth, TXAll 111QSC
Atlantic 10Brooklyn1512QSC
Atlantic CoastGreensboro, NC1512QSC
Atlantic Sun (a)Better Seed Home10 of 141QSC
Big 12Kansas City101QSC
Big EastNew York (MSG)111QSC
Big Sky (b)Boise, ID101Q1Q2SC
Big SouthCharlotte101QSC
Big TenChicago1412QSC
Big West (c)Henderson, NV10 of 111QSC
Colonial AthleticWashington, D.C.1312QSC
Conference USAFrisco, TX111QSC
Horizon (d)Campus, Indianapolis111QSC
Ivy LeaguePrinceton, NJ4 of 8SC
Metro Atlantic (e)Atlantic City, NJ111Q1Q2SC
Mid-AmericanCleveland8 of 12QSC
Mideastern Athletic (f)Norfolk, VA8Q1Q2SC
Missouri ValleySaint Louis121QSC
Mountain WestLas Vegas111QSC
Northeast (g)Better Seed Home8 of 9QSC
Ohio Valley (h)Evansville, IN8 of 101QSC
Pac-12Las Vegas121QSC
PatriotBetter Seed Home101QSC
SoutheasternNashville1412QSC
SouthernAsheville, NC101QSC
Southland (i)Lake Charles, LA8 of 101QSC
Southwestern Athletic (j)Birmingham, AL8 of 12Q1Q2SC
Summit (k)Sioux Falls, SD101Q1Q2SC
Sun BeltPensacola, FL1412QSC
West Coast (l)Las Vegas1012QSC
Western Athletic (m)Las Vegas12 of 131QSC
(a) Atlantic Sun: Opening round 10 vs. 9 at 1 & 8 vs. 7 at 2. Teams reseeded for Semifinals
(b) Big Sky: Opening round 10 vs. 9 & 8 vs. 7. Q1: 9-10 winner vs. 1 & 7-8 winner vs. 2. Q2 3-6 & 4-5
(c) Big West: UC San Diego non participating–ineligible while transitioning to D1
(d) Horizon League: 1st round and quarterfinals on better seed home floor; semis and championship at Indianapolis
(e) Metro Atlantic: #1 and #2 seeds play on M8 and #3 and #4 seeds play on M9 in quarterfinals
(f) Mideastern Athletic: #1 and #2 seeds play on M8 and #3 and #4 seeds play on M9 in quarterfinals
(g) Northeast: Merrimack, is allowed in NEC Tournament but ineligible for NCAA. Stonehill is not eligible for either tournament due to transition to D1
(h) Ohio Valley: Top 8 qualify, but Southern Indiana and Lindenwood not eligible for NCAA Tournament
(h) Ohio Valley: 5-8 & 6-7 in Rd 1; 5-8 winner vs. 4 & 6-7 winner vs. 3 in Q; 4-5-8 winner vs. 1 & 3-6-7 winner vs. 2 in S
(i) Southland: Top 8 teams qualify for conference tournament, but Texas A&M Commerce not eligible for NCAA tournament
(i) Southland: 5-8 & 6-7 in Rd 1; 5-8 winner vs. 4 & 6-7 winner vs. 3 in Q; 4-5-8 winner vs. 1 & 3-6-7 winner vs. 2 in S
(j) Southwestern Athletic: #1 and #2 seeds play on M8; #3 and #4 seeds play on M9
(k) Summit: #1 and #2 seeds play on M4; #3 and #4 seeds play on M5
(l) West Coast: 8-9 & 7-10 in Rd 1; 8-9 winner vs. 5 & 7-10 winner vs. 6 in Rd 2; 5-8-9 vs. 4 & 6-7-10 vs. 3 in Q; 4-5-8-9 vs. 1 & 3-6-7-10 vs. 2 in S
(m) Western Athletic: Top 12 teams qualify; Utah Tech and Tarleton State not eligible for the NCAA Tournament

March 13, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Saturday, March 13, 2021

Team 1Team 2Spread
HartfordU Mass-Lowell3.4
Wichita St.Cincinnati3.9
HoustonMemphis6.4
Florida St.Georgia Tech3.7
Saint BonaventureVCU1.7
CreightonGeorgetown7.9
Eastern WashingtonMontana St.7.9
MichiganOhio St.4.0
IllinoisIowa0.2
TexasOklahoma St.1.1
UCSBUC-Irvine3.0
Western KentuckyNorth Texas-1.3
IonaFairfield7.4
BuffaloOhio3.5
Norfolk St.Morgan St.2.6
San Diego St.Utah St.2.3
ColoradoOregon St.9.1
ColgateLoyola (MD)12.2
AlabamaTennessee3.9
ArkansasLSU2.5
NichollsAbilene Christian-7.6
Prairie View A&MTexas Southern0.6
Grand CanyonNew Mexico St.1.7

Conference Tournaments Update

Saturday, March 13

Bids Awarded Today

America East: UMass-Lowell vs. Hartford

Atlantic 10: Saint Bonaventure vs/ VCU

Big East: Creighton vs. Georgetown (Hoyas would pop a bubble for the at-large field if they win)

Big Sky: Eastern Washington vs. Montana St.

Big 12: Texas vs. Oklahoma St.

Big West: UCSB vs. UC-Irvine

Conference USA: Western Kentucky vs. North Texas

Metro Atlantic: Fairfield vs. Iona

Mid-American: Buffalo vs. Ohio U

Mideastern Athletic: Norfolk St. vs. Morgan St.

Mountain West: San Diego St. vs. Utah St.

Pac-12: Colorado vs. Oregon St. (Beavers win would pop a bubble in the at-large field)

Southland: Nicholls vs. Abilene Christian

Southwestern Athletic: Prairie View A&M vs. Texas Southern

Western Athletic: Grand Canyon vs. New Mexico St.

America East Conference

Championship Game– 11 AM EST, ESPN2

6 U Mass-Lowell at 4 Hartford

American Athletic Conference

Semifinals @ Fort Worth, TX

1 Wichita St. vs. 5 Cincinnati 

2 Houston vs. 3 Memphis 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Championship Game, 8:30 PM EST. ESPN

2 Florida St. vs. 4 Georgia Tech

Atlantic 10 Conference

Championship Game–Tomorrow, 1PM EDT, CBS @ Dayton, OH

1 Saint Bonaventure vs. 2 Virginia Commonwealth

Big East Conference

Championship Game, 6:30 PM EST FOX

2 Creighton vs. 8 Georgetown 

Big Sky Conference

Championship Game, 8 PM EST, ESPNU

2 Eastern Washington vs. 5 Montana St.

 

Big Ten Conference

Semfinals @ Indianapolis, IN

1 Michigan vs. 5 Ohio St.

2 Illinois vs. 3 Iowa 

Big 12 Conference

Championship Game, 6PM EST, ESPN

3 Texas vs. 5 Oklahoma St.

Big West Conference

Championship Game, 11:30 PM EST, ESPN2

1 UCSB vs. 2 UC-Irvine

Conference USA

Championship Game, 9PM EST, CBSSN

1E Western Kentucky vs. 3W North Texas

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

Championship Game, 4 PM EST, ESPNU

7 Fairfield vs. 9 Iona

Mid-American Conference

Championship Game, 7:30 PM EST, ESPN2

2 Buffalo vs. 5 Ohio U

Mideastern Athletic Conference

Championship Game, 1PM EST, ESPN2

2N Norfolk St. vs. 3N Morgan St. 

Mountain West Conference

Championship Game, 6PM EST, CBS

1 San Diego St. vs. 2 Utah St.

Pac-12 Conference

Championship Game, 10:30 PM EST, ESPN

3 Colorado vs. 5 Oregon St.

Patriot League

Championship Game, Tomorrow, 12 PM EDT, CBSSN

9 Loyola (MD) at 2 Colgate

Southeastern Conference

Semifinals @ Nashville, TN

1 Alabama vs. 4 Tennessee

2 Arkansas vs. 3 LSU 

Southland Conference

Championship Game, 9:30 PM EST, ESPN2

1 Nicholls vs.2 Abilene Christian 

Southwestern Athletic Conference

Championship Game, 6PM EST, ESPNU

1 Prairie View A&M vs. 3 Texas Southern 

Western Athletic Conference

Championship Game, 10PM, ESPNU

1 Grand Canyon vs. 3 New Mexico St.

Automatic Qualifiers

Liberty 23-5

Winthrop 23-1

Loyola (Chi.) 24-4

Morehead St. 23-7

UNC-Greensboro 21-8

Appalachian St. 17-11

Drexel 12-7

Cleveland St. 19-7

Mount St. Mary’s 12-10

Oral Roberts 16-10

Gonzaga 26-0

November 25, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 14

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Friday November 30
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Mid-American Conference Championship Game @ Buffalo
Buffalo Northern Illinois 5.9 6.9 7.0
 

 

Pac-12 Conference Championship Game @ Santa Clara, CA
Washington Utah 5.4 4.5 5.4

 

Saturday November 24
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Big 12 Conference Championship Game @ Arlington, TX
Oklahoma Texas 7.2 7.4 7.6
 

 

Sun Belt Conference Championship Game @ Appy St.
Appalachian St. Louisiana 17.8 17.6 18.0
 

 

Conference USA Championship Game @ Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee UAB 2.3 2.0 2.8
 

 

American Athletic Conference Championship Game @ Central FL
Central Florida Memphis 11.3 10.4 10.8
 

 

Southeastern Conference Championship Game @ Atlanta
Alabama Georgia 12.8 13.4 13.3
 

 

Mountain West Conference Championship Game @ Boise St.
Boise St. Fresno St. 2.7 3.0 3.2
 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game @ Charlotte, NC
Clemson Pittsburgh 30.3 28.7 31.4
 

 

Big Ten Conference Championship Game @ Indianapolis, IN
Ohio St. Northwestern 15.5 15.4 16.0

Other Saturday Games

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Virginia Tech Marshall 12.6 8.6 10.7
North Carolina St. East Carolina 30.9 29.9 30.5
South Carolina Akron 30.2 28.2 30.4
California Stanford -5.2 -5.0 -5.2

 

FBS FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
Iowa St. Drake 42.7
Liberty Norfolk St. 26.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 141.3 139.7 143.1 141.4
2 Clemson 138.8 136.5 139.5 138.3
3 Georgia 128.6 126.3 129.8 128.2
4 Ohio St. 126.3 124.5 126.4 125.7
5 Michigan 125.9 124.5 126.3 125.5
6 Notre Dame 126.3 123.9 125.4 125.2
7 Mississippi St. 124.2 122.6 125.4 124.1
8 Washington 122.0 119.9 122.4 121.4
9 Oklahoma 121.5 120.2 121.3 121.0
10 Missouri 121.1 119.6 122.1 120.9
11 Penn St. 119.3 117.0 119.0 118.4
12 L S U 117.6 116.7 118.4 117.6
13 Auburn 116.8 115.6 118.1 116.8
14 West Virginia 117.3 116.1 116.5 116.6
15 Iowa 117.2 115.3 116.6 116.4
16 Utah 116.6 115.3 117.0 116.3
17 Washington St. 115.8 114.7 115.5 115.3
18 Miami 115.8 114.4 115.4 115.2
19 Florida 115.2 113.6 115.7 114.8
20 Texas A&M 114.6 113.6 115.1 114.4
21 Central Florida 114.0 114.4 114.5 114.3
22 Stanford 114.5 112.3 114.5 113.8
23 Texas 114.3 112.8 113.7 113.6
24 Iowa State 113.5 111.8 112.9 112.7
25 Georgia Tech 113.1 111.9 112.7 112.6
26 S. Carolina 112.9 111.7 112.6 112.4
27 Kentucky 112.7 111.4 112.5 112.2
28 Syracuse 112.7 111.4 112.2 112.1
29 N. Carolina St. 112.5 111.6 111.7 111.9
30 Fresno St. 111.8 111.3 111.8 111.7
31 Boise St. 111.5 111.4 112.0 111.6
32 Oregon 111.2 110.9 111.8 111.3
33 Michigan St. 112.0 109.9 111.3 111.1
34 Boston College 111.6 109.4 111.1 110.7
35 Utah St. 109.7 110.9 110.6 110.4
36 Northwestern 110.7 109.2 110.4 110.1
37 Arizona St. 110.2 108.9 109.8 109.6
38 Purdue 110.0 108.3 109.7 109.3
39 Pittsburgh 109.5 108.7 109.0 109.1
40 Oklahoma St. 109.6 108.0 109.5 109.0
41 Duke 109.4 107.4 108.6 108.5
42 Wisconsin 109.3 106.9 108.4 108.2
43 California 108.3 106.3 108.3 107.6
44 U S C 107.1 105.6 106.2 106.3
45 Texas Tech 107.0 105.4 105.7 106.0
46 Virginia 106.2 106.1 105.4 105.9
47 Vanderbilt 105.7 105.7 106.1 105.9
48 Temple 105.5 105.8 106.1 105.8
49 Wake Forest 106.8 105.0 105.0 105.6
50 T C U 106.5 105.2 105.1 105.6
51 Memphis 104.7 106.0 105.7 105.5
52 Nebraska 105.4 104.2 104.9 104.8
53 Kansas St. 104.8 103.6 104.1 104.2
54 Ohio U 103.3 104.5 104.2 104.0
55 Virginia Tech 104.3 103.1 103.5 103.6
56 Army 103.1 103.8 103.3 103.4
57 Cincinnati 102.7 104.1 103.2 103.3
58 Baylor 103.8 102.2 103.4 103.1
59 Florida St. 103.7 102.4 102.8 102.9
60 Ole Miss 102.5 101.8 102.7 102.3
61 Minnesota 102.8 101.4 102.3 102.2
62 Arizona 102.1 100.7 102.4 101.7
63 Maryland 102.4 100.9 101.5 101.6
64 BYU 100.9 101.5 101.9 101.4
65 Houston 101.1 101.6 101.2 101.3
66 Indiana 101.4 100.2 101.1 100.9
67 Buffalo 99.6 101.6 100.9 100.7
68 N. Carolina 100.7 100.0 100.7 100.5
69 Toledo 99.4 100.9 99.6 100.0
70 U C L A 100.7 100.1 99.2 100.0
71 Appalachian St. 98.7 100.6 100.3 99.8
72 Tennessee 98.6 99.0 98.0 98.5
73 Colorado 98.4 98.5 98.5 98.5
74 Kansas 98.4 97.1 97.5 97.7
75 Wyoming 97.2 97.7 97.2 97.3
76 Middle Tennessee 96.2 98.2 97.4 97.3
77 Miami (O) 95.7 97.6 97.8 97.0
78 U A B 95.9 98.2 96.6 96.9
79 Northern Illinois 96.2 97.1 96.4 96.6
80 N. Texas 95.7 98.2 95.7 96.5
81 Air Force 95.6 96.2 95.9 95.9
82 Eastern Michigan 95.2 96.6 95.5 95.8
83 Arkansas 96.7 94.3 95.7 95.6
84 Marshall 94.2 97.0 95.3 95.5
85 Florida Atlantic 94.4 95.6 94.8 94.9
86 Nevada 94.8 94.9 94.6 94.8
87 San Diego St. 94.6 94.7 94.8 94.7
88 SMU 94.2 93.7 93.2 93.7
89 Tulane 93.0 93.5 92.7 93.1
90 Troy 91.4 93.0 92.9 92.4
91 Arkansas St. 91.2 92.8 92.9 92.3
92 Georgia Southern 90.5 92.4 91.2 91.4
93 Florida Int’l. 89.6 93.0 90.3 91.0
94 South Florida 90.5 91.9 90.1 90.8
95 Western Michigan 89.8 91.4 90.7 90.7
96 Tulsa 90.0 89.8 90.0 89.9
97 Louisiana Tech 89.0 90.9 89.3 89.7
98 Southern Miss. 88.2 91.4 89.0 89.6
99 Rutgers 90.2 89.1 89.1 89.5
100 Navy 88.7 90.5 88.8 89.4
101 Illinois 89.6 89.0 88.6 89.1
102 UL-Monroe 85.9 86.7 86.5 86.4
103 Akron 85.6 86.5 85.1 85.8
104 W. Kentucky 84.1 87.0 84.7 85.3
105 Louisiana 83.3 85.5 84.8 84.5
106 Colorado St. 83.5 84.2 83.3 83.7
107 U N L V 83.2 84.1 83.3 83.5
108 Oregon St. 84.4 82.5 83.4 83.4
109 Louisville 83.9 83.3 82.7 83.3
110 East Carolina 83.1 83.2 82.7 83.0
111 Charlotte 81.8 84.4 82.7 83.0
112 New Mexico 82.6 83.3 81.8 82.6
113 Hawaii 82.2 83.8 81.7 82.6
114 Massachusetts 80.9 82.3 81.2 81.5
115 Bowling Green 80.5 81.4 80.9 80.9
116 Old Dominion 79.7 82.9 79.6 80.8
117 San Jose St. 80.4 81.3 79.8 80.5
118 Ball St. 79.9 81.9 79.7 80.5
119 Liberty 80.4 79.9 80.4 80.3
120 Central Michigan 79.0 81.0 79.0 79.7
121 Kent St. 78.9 80.0 78.9 79.3
122 Coastal Carolina 76.0 78.1 76.3 76.8
123 Georgia St. 75.6 77.2 75.6 76.1
124 U T S A 73.6 77.2 74.0 75.0
125 South Alabama 73.4 75.2 73.8 74.1
126 Texas State 72.8 75.2 73.1 73.7
127 N. Mexico St. 72.3 73.8 72.3 72.8
128 Rice 70.0 72.7 69.0 70.6
129 Connecticut 70.2 70.5 69.3 70.0
130 U T E P 68.8 71.8 68.6 69.7

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 114.0 114.4 114.5 114.3 8-0 11-0
Temple 105.5 105.8 106.1 105.8 7-1 8-4
Cincinnati 102.7 104.1 103.2 103.3 6-2 10-2
South Florida 90.5 91.9 90.1 90.8 3-5 7-5
East Carolina 83.1 83.2 82.7 83.0 1-7 3-8
Connecticut 70.2 70.5 69.3 70.0 0-8 1-11
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Memphis 104.7 106.0 105.7 105.5 5-3 8-4
Houston 101.1 101.6 101.2 101.3 5-3 8-4
SMU 94.2 93.7 93.2 93.7 4-4 5-7
Tulane 93.0 93.5 92.7 93.1 5-3 6-6
Tulsa 90.0 89.8 90.0 89.9 2-6 3-9
Navy 88.7 90.5 88.8 89.4 2-6 3-9
AAC Averages 94.8 95.4 94.8 95.0
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 138.8 136.5 139.5 138.3 8-0 12-0
Syracuse 112.7 111.4 112.2 112.1 6-2 9-3
N. Carolina St. 112.5 111.6 111.7 111.9 5-3 8-3
Boston College 111.6 109.4 111.1 110.7 4-4 7-5
Wake Forest 106.8 105.0 105.0 105.6 3-5 6-6
Florida St. 103.7 102.4 102.8 102.9 3-5 5-7
Louisville 83.9 83.3 82.7 83.3 0-8 2-10
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami 115.8 114.4 115.4 115.2 4-4 7-5
Georgia Tech 113.1 111.9 112.7 112.6 5-3 7-5
Pittsburgh 109.5 108.7 109.0 109.1 6-2 7-5
Duke 109.4 107.4 108.6 108.5 3-5 7-5
Virginia 106.2 106.1 105.4 105.9 4-4 7-5
Virginia Tech 104.3 103.1 103.5 103.6 4-4 5-6
N. Carolina 100.7 100.0 100.7 100.5 1-7 2-9
ACC Averages 109.2 108.0 108.6 108.6
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 121.5 120.2 121.3 121.0 8-1 11-1
West Virginia 117.3 116.1 116.5 116.6 6-3 8-3
Texas 114.3 112.8 113.7 113.6 7-2 9-3
Iowa State 113.5 111.8 112.9 112.7 6-3 7-4
Oklahoma St. 109.6 108.0 109.5 109.0 3-6 6-6
Texas Tech 107.0 105.4 105.7 106.0 3-6 5-7
T C U 106.5 105.2 105.1 105.6 4-5 6-6
Kansas St. 104.8 103.6 104.1 104.2 3-6 5-7
Baylor 103.8 102.2 103.4 103.1 4-5 6-6
Kansas 98.4 97.1 97.5 97.7 1-8 3-9
Big 12 Averages 109.7 108.2 109.0 109.0
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Ohio St. 126.3 124.5 126.4 125.7 8-1 11-1
Michigan 125.9 124.5 126.3 125.5 8-1 10-2
Penn St. 119.3 117.0 119.0 118.4 6-3 9-3
Michigan St. 112.0 109.9 111.3 111.1 5-4 7-5
Maryland 102.4 100.9 101.5 101.6 3-6 5-7
Indiana 101.4 100.2 101.1 100.9 2-7 5-7
Rutgers 90.2 89.1 89.1 89.5 0-9 1-11
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Iowa 117.2 115.3 116.6 116.4 5-4 8-4
Northwestern 110.7 109.2 110.4 110.1 8-1 8-4
Purdue 110.0 108.3 109.7 109.3 5-4 6-6
Wisconsin 109.3 106.9 108.4 108.2 5-4 7-5
Nebraska 105.4 104.2 104.9 104.8 3-6 4-8
Minnesota 102.8 101.4 102.3 102.2 3-6 6-6
Illinois 89.6 89.0 88.6 89.1 2-7 4-8
Big Ten Averages 108.8 107.2 108.2 108.1
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Middle Tennessee 96.2 98.2 97.4 97.3 7-1 8-4
Marshall 94.2 97.0 95.3 95.5 6-2 8-3
Florida Atlantic 94.4 95.6 94.8 94.9 3-5 5-7
Florida Int’l. 89.6 93.0 90.3 91.0 6-2 8-4
W. Kentucky 84.1 87.0 84.7 85.3 2-6 3-9
Charlotte 81.8 84.4 82.7 83.0 4-4 5-7
Old Dominion 79.7 82.9 79.6 80.8 2-6 4-8
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
U A B 95.9 98.2 96.6 96.9 7-1 9-3
N. Texas 95.7 98.2 95.7 96.5 5-3 9-3
Louisiana Tech 89.0 90.9 89.3 89.7 5-3 7-5
Southern Miss. 88.2 91.4 89.0 89.6 4-4 6-5
U T S A 73.6 77.2 74.0 75.0 2-6 3-9
Rice 70.0 72.7 69.0 70.6 1-7 2-11
U T E P 68.8 71.8 68.6 69.7 1-7 1-11
CUSA Averages 85.8 88.5 86.2 86.8
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 126.3 123.9 125.4 125.2 x 12-0
Army 103.1 103.8 103.3 103.4 x 9-2
BYU 100.9 101.5 101.9 101.4 x 6-6
Massachusetts 80.9 82.3 81.2 81.5 x 4-8
Liberty 80.4 79.9 80.4 80.3 x 5-6
N. Mexico St. 72.3 73.8 72.3 72.8 x 3-9
Indep. Averages 94.0 94.2 94.1 94.1
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Ohio U 103.3 104.5 104.2 104.0 6-2 8-4
Buffalo 99.6 101.6 100.9 100.7 7-1 10-2
Miami (O) 95.7 97.6 97.8 97.0 6-2 6-6
Akron 85.6 86.5 85.1 85.8 2-6 4-7
Bowling Green 80.5 81.4 80.9 80.9 2-6 3-9
Kent St. 78.9 80.0 78.9 79.3 1-7 2-10
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 99.4 100.9 99.6 100.0 5-3 7-5
Northern Illinois 96.2 97.1 96.4 96.6 6-2 7-5
Eastern Michigan 95.2 96.6 95.5 95.8 5-3 7-5
Western Michigan 89.8 91.4 90.7 90.7 5-3 7-5
Ball St. 79.9 81.9 79.7 80.5 3-5 4-8
Central Michigan 79.0 81.0 79.0 79.7 0-8 1-11
MAC Averages 90.3 91.7 90.7 90.9
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Boise St. 111.5 111.4 112.0 111.6 7-1 10-2
Utah St. 109.7 110.9 110.6 110.4 7-1 10-2
Wyoming 97.2 97.7 97.2 97.3 4-4 6-6
Air Force 95.6 96.2 95.9 95.9 3-5 5-7
Colorado St. 83.5 84.2 83.3 83.7 2-6 3-9
New Mexico 82.6 83.3 81.8 82.6 1-7 3-9
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 111.8 111.3 111.8 111.7 7-1 10-2
Nevada 94.8 94.9 94.6 94.8 5-3 7-5
San Diego St. 94.6 94.7 94.8 94.7 4-4 7-5
U N L V 83.2 84.1 83.3 83.5 2-6 4-8
Hawaii 82.2 83.8 81.7 82.6 5-3 8-5
San Jose St. 80.4 81.3 79.8 80.5 1-7 1-11
MWC Averages 93.9 94.5 93.9 94.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 122.0 119.9 122.4 121.4 7-2 9-3
Washington St. 115.8 114.7 115.5 115.3 7-2 10-2
Stanford 114.5 112.3 114.5 113.8 5-3 7-4
Oregon 111.2 110.9 111.8 111.3 5-4 8-4
California 108.3 106.3 108.3 107.6 4-4 7-4
Oregon St. 84.4 82.5 83.4 83.4 1-8 2-10
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 116.6 115.3 117.0 116.3 6-3 9-3
Arizona St. 110.2 108.9 109.8 109.6 5-4 7-5
U S C 107.1 105.6 106.2 106.3 4-5 5-7
Arizona 102.1 100.7 102.4 101.7 4-5 5-7
U C L A 100.7 100.1 99.2 100.0 3-6 3-9
Colorado 98.4 98.5 98.5 98.5 2-7 5-7
Pac-12 Averages 107.6 106.3 107.4 107.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 128.6 126.3 129.8 128.2 7-1 11-1
Missouri 121.1 119.6 122.1 120.9 4-4 8-4
Florida 115.2 113.6 115.7 114.8 5-3 9-3
S. Carolina 112.9 111.7 112.6 112.4 4-4 6-5
Kentucky 112.7 111.4 112.5 112.2 5-3 9-3
Vanderbilt 105.7 105.7 106.1 105.9 3-5 6-6
Tennessee 98.6 99.0 98.0 98.5 2-6 5-7
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 141.3 139.7 143.1 141.4 8-0 12-0
Mississippi St. 124.2 122.6 125.4 124.1 4-4 8-4
L S U 117.6 116.7 118.4 117.6 5-3 9-3
Auburn 116.8 115.6 118.1 116.8 3-5 7-5
Texas A&M 114.6 113.6 115.1 114.4 5-3 8-4
Ole Miss 102.5 101.8 102.7 102.3 1-7 5-7
Arkansas 96.7 94.3 95.7 95.6 0-8 2-10
SEC Averages 114.9 113.7 115.4 114.6
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 98.7 100.6 100.3 99.8 7-1 9-2
Troy 91.4 93.0 92.9 92.4 7-1 9-3
Georgia Southern 90.5 92.4 91.2 91.4 6-2 9-3
Coastal Carolina 76.0 78.1 76.3 76.8 2-6 5-7
Georgia St. 75.6 77.2 75.6 76.1 1-7 2-10
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 91.2 92.8 92.9 92.3 5-3 8-4
UL-Monroe 85.9 86.7 86.5 86.4 4-4 6-6
Louisiana 83.3 85.5 84.8 84.5 5-3 7-5
South Alabama 73.4 75.2 73.8 74.1 2-6 3-9
Texas State 72.8 75.2 73.1 73.7 1-7 3-9
Sun Belt Averages 83.9 85.7 84.7 84.8

 

Conference Ratings

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 114.9 113.7 115.4 114.6
2 B12 109.7 108.2 109.0 109.0
3 ACC 109.2 108.0 108.6 108.6
4 BTEN 108.8 107.2 108.2 108.1
5 PAC12 107.6 106.3 107.4 107.1
6 AAC 94.8 95.4 94.8 95.0
7 MWC 93.9 94.5 93.9 94.1
8 IND 94.0 94.2 94.1 94.1
9 MAC 90.3 91.7 90.7 90.9
10 CUSA 85.8 88.5 86.2 86.8
11 SUN 83.9 85.7 84.7 84.8

 

Top Group of 5

Central Florida will get the New Year’s 6 Bowl Bid with a win over Memphis this week in the CUSA Championship Game.  If Memphis pulls off the upset, then UCF could still sneak in depending on how the loss looks.

Should UCF fall by a considerable margin because Mackenzie Milton is out for the season, then Boise State could move above the Golden Knights should the Broncos defeat Fresno State for the second time.

Should Fresno State beat Boise State, and Memphis beat Central Florida, then there could be some issues with the awarding of Bowl Bids.  Because Army doesn’t play Navy until December 8, and the announcement of the bowl bids is December 3, then Army could be excluded even if they blowout Navy by 50 points.  In this instance, Central Florida would probably still get the bid at 11-1.  Had Army defeated Duke at the beginning of the season, then at 11-1 with a loss only to Oklahoma (a game they came close to winning), then the Bowl Committee would have been in a heap of trouble, having to make alternate announcements pending what Army did versus Navy.

At 10-2, Army may still get a chance to play a Power 5 opponent in a bowl game.  Coach Jeff Monken would be a cinch to be offered a Power 5 job if he was not in the Paul Johnson mode.  Monken’s triple option offense is stronger than Georgia Tech’s this year, and his defense is considerably better.

 

Playoff and Bowl Projections

This week, you will see many of the bowl projection sites beginning to come to agreement on the top bowl games.  No doubt, almost every projection will have Alabama in the Cotton Bowl against either Oklahoma or Ohio State, while Clemson and Notre Dame will be in the Orange Bowl.

We thought about this for a long time Saturday night as Clemson and Alabama continued to dominate.  It looked so much like the Playoffs could be narrowed to two teams.  However, we thought about something.  Georgia is not going to lay over and die for the Crimson Tide to roll over.  The Bulldogs have a bad taste in their mouth from last year, where they could smell the National Championship Trophy in the second half of the title game, before some freshman named Tua came off the bench in the second half and looked like a combination of Joe Montana, Brett Favre, John Elway, and Doug Flutie.

We have noticed the teams that have given Alabama the most trouble through the Nick Saban years.  These teams have physical defenses and offenses with dual-threat quarterbacks that can act as another running back while still passing like stars.  Think about Cam Newton, Johnny Manziel, or DeShaun Watson.  Even Chad Kelly had legs and could take off and run.  These are the teams that gave the Crimson Tide the most trouble in the last decade.

In the last few weeks, Alabama’s defense has been exposed by this read and react style of offense.  The Citadel’s triple option basically embarrassed Alabama in the first half.  Auburn’s spread option offense did some damage, but Jarrett Stidham does not have the legs to motor on the keeper like the QBs that have outscored Alabama to victory.

Here’s the thing.  Just like Alabama last year, Georgia has their not-so-secret weapon sitting on the bench waiting to be this year’s Tua Tagovailoa.  Freshman sensation Justin Fields possesses the same skills as Newton, Manziel, and Watson.  He has the potential to lead Georgia to an upset victory and totally throw the FBS Playoffs into disarray.

What if Georgia beat Alabama?  Assuming Clemson easily dismisses Pittsburgh, then Clemson would be number one, Georgia and Notre Dame would be number two and three in either order, and Alabama would fall to number four.  Ohio State and Oklahoma would be left out.  Forget Central Florida.  Even if Bama beats Georgia, Northwestern beats Ohio State, and Texas beats Oklahoma, a Georgia team at 11-2 would get into the playoffs before UCF.

If Georgia were to upset Alabama, then four SEC teams would most likely make the NY6 bowls.  The Bulldogs and Tide would make the playoffs.  Florida would most likely make the Peach Bowl, and LSU would probably edge out Penn State and others for the Sugar Bowl.

There are 81 bowl eligible teams as of today.  Virginia Tech is a win over Marshall this weekend from becoming bowl eligible and making it  82.  Liberty can get to 6-6 with a win over Norfolk State, but they have already been eliminated from bowl eligibility as a transition team to FBS once 78 teams became bowl eligible.

If you are a fan of a Mountain West, Mid-American, or Sun Belt Conference team that is 6-6 today, you better cheer hard for Marshall to knock off Virginia Tech.  There are already three teams too many for the bowls, and if the Hokies win, they will jump over any of the Group of 5 teams hoping to land in a bowl.  Teams like Eastern Michigan, Miami of Ohio, Wyoming, and Louisiana-Monroe are holding out for a miracle.  At most one of these teams will make it to a bowl, and if Virginia Tech wins this weekend, all four are likely to have empty envelopes.  Eastern Michigan could still top Western Michigan, but the Broncos have a larger fan base than the Eagles.

What you see below is our look at the bowls should Georgia beat Alabama.  You can look at all the others on the Internet to see what it would look like if the status quo remains, but we believe you will want to read this alternative look.

 

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA Utah St. Louisiana Tech
Cure AAC SBC Memphis Troy
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Boise St. Arizona St.
Camellia MAC SBC Northern Illinois Appalachian St.
New Orleans CUSA SBC Southern Miss. Louisiana
Boca Raton AAC CUSA South Florida Florida Int’l.
Frisco AAC At-Large Tulane [Army]
Gasparilla AAC CUSA [Duke] UAB
Bahamas MAC CUSA Toledo North Texas
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Ohio U Nevada
Birmingham AAC SEC Cincinnati [Wake Forest]
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 Houston TCU
Dollar General MAC SBC Buffalo Georgia Southern
Hawaii CUSA MWC Middle Tennessee Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA [Western Michigan] Marshall
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Boston College Purdue
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Baylor [San Diego St.]
Independence ACC SEC Virginia [BYU]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Pittsburgh Wisconsin
Texas Big 12 SEC Iowa St. Mississippi St.
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Georgia Tech Missouri
Camping World ACC Big 12 Syracuse West Virginia
Arizona MWC SBC Fresno St. Arkansas St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Texas Utah
Belk ACC SEC North Carolina St. South Carolina
Peach At-large At-large Michigan Florida
Military AAC ACC Temple Virginia Tech
Sun ACC Pac-12 Miami (Fla.) California
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Minnesota Stanford
Liberty Big 12 SEC Oklahoma St. Vanderbilt
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa Oregon
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Northwestern Auburn
Outback Big Ten SEC Michigan St. Texas A&M
Fiesta At-large At-large Central Florida Washington St.
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Penn St. Kentucky
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. Washington
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma LSU
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton Notre Dame Georgia
Orange Clemson Alabama
Championship Game Georgia Alabama
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

April 1, 2012

NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship Preview

Welcome back to the PiRate Ratings’ Bracketnomics.  A quick tutorial about Bracketnomics:  We have studied numerous statistical factors of all Final Four Teams from the 1950’s until 2011.  We isolated the statistical similarities of those teams and found certain shared statistical characteristics.  For the last eight years, we have been applying it to the NCAA teams trying to discover which ones shared these same statistics as the Final Four teams of yesteryear.  In five of the last seven years, we were pretty spot on with our selections.  For instance, in 2009, whenKentucky,Kansas, andOhioStatewere listed as the heavy tri-favorites, our system showed Duke to be the top-rated team.  We went with Duke even though the Blue Devils were not being highly considered.  Now admittedly, we did not seeButlercoming through to the Finals that year, or last year either, but we did rateButleras one to watch to get to the Elite 8.

If you want all the details behind our PiRate Criteria Score, please refer to our Bracketnomics 505, 2012 edition at: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2012/03/10/bracketnomics-505-2012-edition/

 

2012 PiRate Ratings Final Four Preview—Championship Game

Monday, April 2, 2012, 9:23 PM EDT

The Superdome—New Orleans

CBS Television—Announcers: Jim Nantz, Clark Kellogg, and Steve Kerr

 

#1S Kentucky Wildcats (37-2) vs. #2MW Kansas Jayhawks (32-6)

Las Vegas Line: Kentucky by 6 ½

Over/Under: 137

 

In our founder’s lifetime, the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers have met in the World Series four times (1963, 1977, 1978, and 1981), splitting them two titles apiece.  The two greatest franchises have not gone to a seventh game since 1956.

 

This is what the sports public gets to enjoy Monday night.  Kansas and Kentucky are the two most fabled basketball powers in the NCAA.  However, this is the first time the Jayhawks and Wildcats have met in the National Championship.

 

The game’s inventor, James Naismith was Kansas’s first head coach.  He turned the reins over to Phog Allen.  Allen led KU to the voted National Championship in 1922 and 1923.  One of his players on those teams was Adolph Rupp.

 

Kentucky Coach John Calipari and Kansas Coach Bill Self have a history.  Self’s lone National Championship came over Calipari in his lone appearance in the finals when Kansas came from behind to beat Memphis 75-68 in overtime. 

 

We expect this game to rival that one in excitement.  If you are a basketball fan, this game should be one you will definitely watch. 

 

These teams met at Madison Square Garden on November 15, and Kentucky won 75-65.  After battling to a 28-28 tie, Kentucky scored 11 consecutive points on a layup by Jones, a dunk by Davis, a dunk by Jones, a three-pointer by Teague, and a two-point jumper by Teague, in a three-minute stretch.  The Wildcats then pulled away to a 17-point lead and maintained a double-digit spread until the final seconds.

 

The Rosters, Scores, and Statistics

 

Kentucky Wildcats

 

No.

Name

Pos.

Ht.

Wt.

Yr.

Hometown (Last School)

1

Darius Miller

G

6-08

235

SR

Maysville,Ky.(MasonCounty)

3

Terrence Jones

F

6-09

252

SO

Portland,Ore.(Jefferson)

4

Jon Hood

G

6-07

215

JR

Madisonville,Ky.(North Hopkins)

5

Jarrod Polson

G

6-02

185

SO

Nicholasville,Ky.(West Jessamine)

10

Twany Beckham

G

6-05

205

JR

Louisville,Ky.(MississippiState)

12

Ryan Harrow

G

6-02

175

SO

Marietta, Ga. (N.C. State)

13

Sam Malone

G

5-11

190

FR

Scituate,Mass.(Scituate)

14

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

F

6-07

232

FR

Somerdale,N.J.(St. Patrick)

20

Doron Lamb

G

6-04

210

SO

Queens,N.Y.(OakHillAcademy)

23

Anthony Davis

F

6-10

220

FR

Chicago,Ill.(Perspectives Charter)

25

Marquis Teague

G

6-02

189

FR

Indianapolis,Ind.(Pike)

30

Eloy Vargas

F

6-11

244

SR

Moca,Dominican Republic(Miami-Dade CC)

32

Brian Long

G

5-09

150

FR

Dumont,N.J.(River Dell)

33

Kyle Wiltjer

F

6-09

239

FR

Portland,Ore.(Jesuit)
 

Coaches and Staff

 

 
 

John Calipari – Head Coach

 

 

OrlandoAntigua- Assistant Coach

 

Kenny Payne – Assistant Coach

 

John Robic – Assistant Coach

 

 

Results

 

Opponent

UK

Opp

Marist

108

58

(n)Kansas

75

65

(n)PennState

85

47

(n) Old Dominion

62

52

Radford

88

40

Portland

87

63

St. John’s

81

59

North Carolina

73

72

at Indiana

72

73

Chattanooga

87

62

Samford

82

50

Loyola (Md.)

87

63

Lamar

86

64

Louisville

69

62

(n) Arkansas-Little Rock

73

51

South Carolina

79

64

atAuburn

68

53

atTennessee

65

62

Arkansas

86

63

Alabama

77

71

atGeorgia

57

44

at L S U

74

50

Tennessee

69

44

atSouth Carolina

86

52

Florida

78

58

at Vanderbilt

69

63

Ole Miss

77

62

atMississippiState

73

64

Vanderbilt

83

74

Georgia

79

49

atFlorida

74

59

(n) L S U

60

51

(n)Florida

74

71

(n) Vanderbilt

64

71

ncaaWestern Kentucky

81

66

ncaaIowaState

87

71

ncaa Indiana

102

90

ncaa Baylor

82

70

ncaaLouisville

69

61

 

 

Statistics

Player

G-GS

Min

Avg

FG-Att

Fg%

3 FG-Att

3Pt %

Ft-Att

Ft%

Anthony Davis

39-39

1245

31.9

209-327

.639

3-20

.150

140-197

.711

Doron Lamb

39-34

1214

31.1

168-357

.471

73-157

.465

118-143

.825

Terrence Jones

37-33

1085

29.3

173-347

.499

16-48

.333

98-156

.628

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

39-38

1210

31.0

156-319

.489

13-50

.260

140-188

.745

Marquis Teague

39-39

1269

32.5

140-338

.414

24-77

.312

83-116

.716

Darius Miller

39-11

1018

26.1

141-297

.475

55-147

.374

55-69

.797

Kyle Wiltjer

39-0

458

11.7

71-161

.441

35-80

.438

22-27

.815

Sam Malone

6-0

13

2.2

3-6

.500

0-0

.000

0-0

.000

Eloy Vargas

32-1

196

6.1

12-36

.333

0-1

.000

4-13

.308

Brian Long

12-0

17

1.4

0-1

.000

0-0

.000

2-4

.500

Jarrod Polson

11-0

31

2.8

0-2

.000

0-1

.000

1-4

.250

Twany Beckham

16-0

44

2.8

0-1

.000

0-0

.000

0-0

.000

 

 

               
Kentucky

39

7800

200.0

1073-2192

.490

219-581

.377

663-917

.723

Opponents

39

7800

200.0

867-2317

.374

214-678

.316

416-599

.694

 

 

               
Player

Reb O

Reb D

Tot

F-DQ

Ast

TO

Blk

Stl

Pts

Anthony Davis

115

284

399

76-1

45

38

180

51

561

Doron Lamb

14

92

106

70-0

57

43

2

19

527

Terrence Jones

95

170

265

87-3

51

60

66

48

460

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

101

190

291

95-5

74

86

36

39

465

Marquis Teague

16

83

99

89-1

188

107

11

37

387

Darius Miller

35

69

104

85-0

82

56

11

33

392

Kyle Wiltjer

26

44

70

44-0

16

27

17

5

199

Sam Malone

0

2

2

0-0

1

4

0

0

6

Eloy Vargas

20

36

56

25-0

2

6

10

3

28

Brian Long

1

1

2

0-0

0

0

0

0

2

Jarrod Polson

0

4

4

4-0

1

5

0

2

1

Twany Beckham

2

6

8

0-0

2

1

0

1

0

Team

50

57

107

9

         
Kentucky

475

1038

1513

578-10

519

442

333

238

3028

Opponents

476

775

1251

734-x

411

457

128

212

2364

 

 

               
Player

Scoring

Rebounding

         
Anthony Davis

14.4

10.2

         
Doron Lamb

13.5

2.7

         
Terrence Jones

12.4

7.2

         
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

11.9

7.5

         
Marquis Teague

9.9

2.5

         
Darius Miller

10.1

2.7

         
Kyle Wiltjer

5.1

1.8

         
Sam Malone

1.0

0.3

         
Eloy Vargas

0.9

1.8

         
Brian Long

0.2

0.2

         
Jarrod Polson

0.1

0.4

         
Twany Beckham

0.0

0.5

         
Team    

2.8

         
Kentucky

77.6

38.8

         
Opponents

60.6

32.1

         

 

 

 

Kansas Jayhawks

 

No.       Player                           Pos      Ht         Wt        Yr         Home Town (Last Team)

0          Thomas Robinson          F          6-10      237       JR        Washington, D.C./Brewster [N.H.] Academy

1          Naadir Tharpe                G          5-11      170       FR        Worcester, Mass./Brewster [N.H.] Academy

2          Conner Teahan              G          6-06      212       SR       Leawood, Kan./Rockhurst HS

4          Justin Wesley                F          6-09      220       SO       Fort Worth, Texas/North Crowley HS/Lamar

5          Jeff Withey                    C          7-00      235       JR        San Diego, Calif./Horizon HS

10         Tyshawn Taylor             G          6-03      185       SR       Hoboken, N.J./St. Anthony HS

15         Elijah Johnson               G          6-04      195       JR        Las Vegas, Nev./Cheyenne HS

20         Niko Roberts                 G          5-11      175       SO       Huntington, N.Y./Saint Anthony’s HS

21         Christian Garrett            G          6-03      170       FR        Los Angeles, Calif./IMG Academy

22         Merv Lindsay                 G          6-07      195       FR        Moreno Valley, Calif./Canyon Springs High School

23         Ben McLemore              G          6-05      185       FR        St. Louis, Mo./Christian Life Center [Texas]

24         Travis Releford              G          6-06      207       JR        Kansas City, Mo./Bishop Miege HS

25         Jordan Juenemann         G          6-03      195       SR       Hays, Kan./Hays HS

31         Jamari Traylor               F          6-08      215       FR        Chicago, Ill./IMG Academy [Fla.]

40         Kevin Young                  F          6-08      185       JR        Perris, Calif./Perris High School/Loyola Marymount

 

 

Coaches

 

Bill Self – Head Coach

Joe Dooley – Assistant Coach

Kurtis Townsend – Assistant Coach

Danny Manning – Assistant Coach

 

Results

Opponent

KU

Att.

Towson

100

54

(n) Kentucky

65

75

(n)Georgetown

67

63

(n) UCLA

72

56

(n) Duke

61

68

FloridaAtlantic

77

54

South Florifa

70

42

Long Beach St.

88

80

OhioState

78

67

(n) Davidson

74

80

atSouthern Cal

63

47

Howard

89

34

North Dakota

84

58

KansasState

67

49

atOklahoma

72

61

atTexasTech

81

46

IowaState

82

73

Baylor

92

74

atTexas

69

66

TexasA&M

64

54

at Iowa State

64

72

Oklahoma

84

62

at Missouri

71

74

at Baylor

68

54

OklahomaState

81

66

atKansasState

59

53

TexasTech

83

50

atTexasA&M

66

58

Missouri

87

86

atOklahomaState

70

58

Texas

73

63

vs.TexasA&M

83

66

vs. Baylor

72

81

ncaaDetroit

65

50

ncaa Purdue

63

60

ncaaNorth CarolinaState

60

57

ncaaNorth Carolina

80

67

ncaaOhioState

64

62

 

Statistics

Player

gp-gs

min

avg

fg-fga

fg%

3fg-fga

3fg%

ft-fta

ft%

Thomas Robinson

38-38

1204

31.7

255-500

.510

7-14

.500

157-232

.677

Tyshawn Taylor

38-37

1267

33.3

218-457

.477

57-151

.377

135-196

.689

Elijah Johnson

38-37

1218

32.1

143-331

.432

66-197

.335

32-46

.696

Jeff Withey

38-38

936

24.6

111-203

.547

0-0

.000

123-155

.794

Travis Releford

38-37

1176

30.9

118-233

.506

25-78

.321

67-102

.657

Conner Teahan

38-2

801

21.1

68-186

.366

51-151

.338

26-31

.839

Kevin Young

37-0

421

11.4

47-98

.480

3-9

.333

33-49

.673

Jordan Juenemann

15-1

47

3.1

8-18

.444

1-6

.167

2-6

.333

Justin Wesley

37-0

324

8.8

17-30

.567

0-0

.000

11-26

.423

Merv Lindsay

12-0

26

2.2

5-9

.556

1-3

.333

0-1

.000

Naadir Tharpe

32-0

175

5.5

11-38

.289

6-22

.273

1-2

.500

Niko Roberts

7-0

14

2.0

0-4

.000

0-1

.000

0-2

.000

Christian Garrett

7-0

15

2.1

0-0

.000

0-0

.000

0-0

.000

Anthony West

1-0

1

1.0

0-0

.000

0-0

.000

0-0

.000

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total……….

38

7625

200.7

1001-2107

.475

217-632

.343

587-848

.692

Opponents……

38

7625

200.7

803-2120

.379

230-680

.338

504-700

.720

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Player

Reb-O

Reb-D

Reb-Tot

Fl-DQ

a

to

blk

stl

pts

Thomas Robinson

108

338

446

105-2

71

103

34

42

674

Tyshawn Taylor

7

80

87

76-0

183

133

6

51

628

Elijah Johnson

15

109

124

91-2

135

69

2

54

384

Jeff Withey

78

160

238

95-1

28

48

136

23

345

Travis Releford

62

101

163

78-0

68

37

7

45

328

Conner Teahan

25

55

80

64-1

40

36

1

27

213

Kevin Young

52

59

111

61-0

24

29

15

20

130

Jordan Juenemann

1

7

8

4-0

2

2

1

1

19

Justin Wesley

26

33

59

69-1

1

11

14

6

45

Merv Lindsay

0

3

3

3-0

1

0

1

1

11

Naadir Tharpe

3

7

10

12-0

21

22

0

7

29

Niko Roberts

0

2

2

4-0

3

2

0

2

0

Christian Garrett

1

1

2

0-0

1

1

0

0

0

Anthony West

0

0

0

0-0

0

0

0

0

0

Team

60

40

100

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total……….

438

995

1433

662-7

578

497

217

279

2808

Opponents……

407

806

1213

703-x

424

522

126

249

2340

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Player

Scoring

Rebounding

 

 

 

 

 

Thomas Robinson

17.7

11.7

 

 

 

 

 

Tyshawn Taylor

16.5

2.3

 

 

 

 

 

Elijah Johnson

10.1

3.3

 

 

 

 

 

Jeff Withey

9.1

6.3

 

 

 

 

 

Travis Releford

8.6

4.3

 

 

 

 

 

Conner Teahan

5.6

2.1

 

 

 

 

 

Kevin Young

3.5

3.0

 

 

 

 

 

Jordan Juenemann

1.3

0.5

 

 

 

 

 

Justin Wesley

1.2

1.6

 

 

 

 

 

Merv Lindsay

0.9

0.3

 

 

 

 

 

Naadir Tharpe

0.9

0.3

 

 

 

 

 

Niko Roberts

0.0

0.3

 

 

 

 

 

Christian Garrett

0.0

0.3

 

 

 

 

 

Anthony West

0.0

0.0

 

 

 

 

 

Team

 

2.6

 

 

 

 

 

Total……….

73.9

37.7

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents……

61.6

31.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Criteria Ratings

Criteria Stat

Kentucky

Pts

Kansas

Pts

Scoring Margin

17.0

8.50

12.30

6.2

FG% Margin

11.6

5.80

9.6

4.8

Rebound Margin

6.7

4.00

5.8

3.5

TO Margin

0.4

0.20

0.6

0.3

R + T *

8.40

3.40

7.98

3.2

Schedule  Strength ^

.5768

2.70

.5898

4.0

Road W-L% #

90.5

4.50

72.7

2.5

TOTAL

UK

29.10

KU

24.5

 

 

* R+T is the PiRate Ratings’ estimate of the margin of extra scoring opportunities per game for each team.  The formula is: (Rebounding Margin) + (0.2 *  Avg. Steals Per Game) + (1.2 * Turnover Margin).  The result shows how many more scoring opportunities the team gets than its opponents.  If the R+T is 10, that means a team averages 10 more scoring opportunities per game over its opponents.

 

^ Strength of Schedule is taken from the RPI ratings from Statsheet.com.

 

# Road W-L% includes true road games and neutral site games.

 

The Position Matchups

Point Guard: UK—Marquis Teague  KU—Tyshawn Taylor

Taylor had the better night at MSG, but Teague was playing in just his second collegiate game back on November 15.  This time around, Teague is the equal of the senior Taylor.  Taylor is a little better offensively, but his advantage will be neutralized to a great extent, because he will not be able to beat Teague to the basket and score with Jones and Davis waiting to send shots into the eighth row in the stands.

 

Advantage: Draw

 

Shooting Guard: UK—Doron Lamb  KU—Elijah Johnson

Lamb is a considerably better shooter with the ability to get open.  Johnson has a tendency to take unwise shots at times, the type that can turn into Kentucky fast breaks.

 

Johnson’s edge comes as a second point guard.  KU can reverse the ball to the opposite side, and Johnson is like a second assist specialist on the floor.

 

This will be one of three big keys in this game. 

 

Advantage: Kentucky, but very slight

 

Small Forward: UK—Michael Kidd-Gilchrist  KU—Travis Releford

Kidd-Gilchrist has a 25-pound weight advantage without giving away much in quickness to Releford.  Releford is a better defensive player than Kidd-Gilchrist, but the Wildcats only need him to stay out of foul trouble and keep the perimeter defenders from ganging up on the other two big men.

 

Advantage: Kentucky, but very slight

 

Power Forward/Center: UK—Terence Jones  KU—Jeff Withey

We had to do some changing here, because Withey will be assigned to Jones and not Davis.  This is an excellent matchup, but Jones is the better player.  Withey is probably the second best shot blocker in the nation, and he could swat away three to five shots in this game, but Jones will outshine him Monday night.

 

Jones did not have a great game against Louisville, while Withey played well against Ohio State.  We believe in the law of averages and think the unknown key in this game is that Jones is sitting on one big college finale.  We’ve seen this before.  Look for Jones to be the special factor in this game.

 

Advantage: Kentucky

 

Power Forward/Center: UK—Anthony Davis  KU—Thomas Robinson

Going back to the Yankees/Dodgers analogy, this is Sandy Koufax against Whitey Ford, Reggie Jackson against Steve Garvey, and Mickey Mantle against Duke Snider.

 

Davis is the best player in the nation, while Robinson is maybe number three if not number two.  Both of them will be pressing at the start, and the other key will be if one gets a couple of quick fouls.  All in all, these two future NBA stars will put on a great show for the audience, but in the end, we do not expect the game to be decided here.  Both will have good but not great games.

 

Advantage: Draw

 

Bench: UK—Darius Miller, Kyle Wiltjer, Eloy Vargas  KU—Connor Teahan, Kevin Young, Justin Wesley

 

Miller and Teahan are almost sixth starters, as they play almost as much as the starting fives on their teams.  Wiltjer and Young play about 10-12 minutes per game, while Wesley and Vargas see minutes only to spell starters that have to come out for a break.  With the longer timeouts in these games, Wesley and Vargas are not going to see much action.  In fact, Wesley did not play for the first time this season Saturday night.

 

Because none of the bench players is going to be asked to do much, there will be no advantage here.

 

Advantage: Draw

 

Coaching: UK—John Calipari  KU—Bill Self

These two successful coaches have ties to the same school, and that school is Kansas.  Calipari was an assistant at Kansas during the Larry Brown era, and when he left to move to the top assistant position at Pitt, Self replaced him in Lawrence.

 

Self also served as an assistant at his alma mater, Oklahoma State under two former Kentucky coaches—Leonard Hamilton (an assistant under Joe B. Hall) and Eddie Sutton.

 

Both coaches know their stuff.  They motivate their players to play tenacious defense and to work the ball into the paint for close-in shots.  This type of play wins in the Big Dance.

 

Advantage: Draw

 

Prediction:  We mentioned three keys in this game.  The first key is at the 2-guard position.  Lamb is the type of player that does not feel pressure.  If he gets a hot hand from outside, it will be lights out for the Jayhwaks.  Johnson has to stick to Lamb and not give him open looks.  He also has to contribute with three or more assists, meaning Kansas will be able to reverse the ball and avoid Davis inside.

 

The second key is the matchup of the two superstars.  If one gets into early foul trouble, the other will break loose and control the game.  Because the officials will know they can affect the outcome by whistling one of the two, we do not foresee this being a problem.

 

It is the third key where we believe this game will be decided.  We do not believe Withey, with help from Robinson, will be able to stop Jones.  Jones is sitting on a great game, and he has one left to prove us.  Calipari asked him to step down as the go-to guy, and he will motivate Jones to go out and prove that he can still carry the ‘Cats.

 

Only one team can beat Kentucky, and that is Kentucky.  The Wildcats will consider this a disappointing season if they lose.  They won’t.  We chose Kentucky at the start to win this tournament, and we were successful in picking three of the final four with Ohio State and Kansas.  We have to stick with the one we predicted three weeks ago.

 

Kentucky 72  Kansas 66

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