PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 17: December 29, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

 

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Baltimore	Pittsburgh	13.8	13.6	14.0
Buffalo	N.Y. Jets	8.3	8.6	9.4
Carolina	New Orleans	-14.7	-13.4	-13.7
Cincinnati	Cleveland	-4.1	-4.5	-4.3
Dallas	Washington	16.0	15.4	15.5
Detroit	Green Bay	-7.2	-8.7	-9.2
Houston	Tennessee	1.4	1.7	1.7
Jacksonville	Indianapolis	-7.8	-8.5	-8.0
Kansas City	LA Chargers	9.2	10.2	10.9
Minnesota	Chicago	6.7	7.8	8.0
New England	Miami	21.7	22.0	21.6
N. Y. Giants	Philadelphia	-7.2	-5.7	-5.0
Tampa Bay	Atlanta	1.5	2.5	2.9
Denver	Oakland	7.1	7.6	7.3
LA Rams	Arizona	9.4	8.3	8.1
Seattle	San Francisco	-3.0	-3.9	-3.9

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

 

Home	Visitor	Total
Baltimore	Pittsburgh	44
Buffalo	N.Y. Jets	38
Carolina	New Orleans	53
Cincinnati	Cleveland	47.5
Dallas	Washington	41.5
Detroit	Green Bay	47.5
Houston	Tennessee	45
Jacksonville	Indianapolis	41
Kansas City	LA Chargers	51.5
Minnesota	Chicago	38.5
New England	Miami	48
N. Y. Giants	Philadelphia	49
Tampa Bay	Atlanta	55.5
Denver	Oakland	44.5
LA Rams	Arizona	51
Seattle	San Francisco	49.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	108.0	108.7	108.2	108.3	19.5	12-3
Buffalo	102.0	103.0	103.0	102.7	17	10-5
N. Y. Jets	94.7	95.4	94.6	94.9	21	6-9
Miami	89.4	89.7	89.6	89.6	28.5	4-11
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	111.7	111.9	112.7	112.1	25	13-2
Pittsburgh	98.9	99.4	99.7	99.3	19	8-7
Cleveland	97.8	97.9	97.8	97.8	24	6-9
Cincinnati	92.7	92.4	92.5	92.5	23.5	1-14
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Houston	102.2	102.7	102.7	102.6	23.5	10-5
Tennessee	101.8	102.0	102.0	101.9	21.5	8-7
Indianapolis	100.1	100.9	100.3	100.4	23	7-8
Jacksonville	91.3	91.4	91.3	91.3	18	5-10
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	107.0	107.7	107.7	107.5	29.5	11-4
LA Chargers	100.4	100.0	99.3	99.9	22	5-10
Denver	99.0	99.3	99.1	99.1	19	6-9
Oakland	92.8	92.7	92.8	92.8	25.5	7-8
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	104.2	104.3	103.9	104.1	22	7-8
Philadelphia	101.9	100.7	100.5	101.0	23.5	8-7
N.Y. Giants	93.7	94.0	94.4	94.0	25.5	4-11
Washington	91.3	91.9	91.4	91.5	19.5	3-12
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	106.8	105.7	105.8	106.1	21.5	10-5
Green Bay	103.8	103.8	104.2	103.9	24	12-3
Chicago	101.1	98.9	98.8	99.6	17	7-8
Detroit	95.0	93.6	93.5	94.1	23.5	3-11-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	108.7	107.2	107.7	107.9	27	12-3
Tampa Bay	101.1	102.3	102.6	102.0	29.5	7-8
Atlanta	100.6	100.8	100.7	100.7	26	6-9
Carolina	93.0	92.8	93.0	92.9	26	5-10
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
San Francisco	107.2	107.9	108.1	107.7	26	12-3
LA Rams	104.5	103.6	104.0	104.0	26.5	8-7
Seattle	101.2	101.0	101.2	101.1	23.5	11-4
Arizona	96.1	96.3	96.9	96.4	24.5	5-9-1

 

 

 

Week 17 Playoff Scenarios

 

NFC

If San Francisco, New Orleans, and Green Bay all win, San Francisco is  the #1 seed, Green Bay the #2 seed, and New Orleans the #3 seed.

If Seattle beats San Francisco, then Green Bay will get #1 seed with win over Detroit.

If Seattle beats San Francisco, and Detroit beats Green Bay, then New Orleans gets #1 seed with a win over Carolina.

If Seatlle beats San Francisco, and Green Bay and New Orleans lose, Seattle gets the #1 seed.

Philadelphia wins the NFC East with a win over the Giants or a Dallas loss to Washington. Any ties in the standings would go to Dallas.

Minnesota is #6 seed regardless of week 17 results.

 

AFC

Houston has clinched the #1 seed in the AFC

New England clinches the #2 seed with a win over Miami or a Kansas City loss to the Chargers.

Houston can pass Kansas City for the #3 seed with a win over Tennessee and a loss by Kansas City.

Buffalo is the #5 seed regardless of week 17 results.

Tennessee wins the #6 seed if they beat Houston, or with a loss with Pittsburgh losing to Baltimore while both Oakland and Indianapolis do not win.

Pittsburgh wins the #6 seed only if they win and the Titans lose.

Oakland can clinch the #6 seed with a win over Denver, plus losses by Tennessee and Pittsburgh and Indianapolis beating Jacksonville.

 

PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

 

What are the chances that the Oakland Raiders, in their last season playing in Oakland, could sneak into the NFL Playoffs?  It ranges from + or – 10-15% depending on which advanced metric expert you listen to.  We’re sabermetric experts that do not perform these type of metrics on pro football.

The way we look at things, Baltimore has nothing to gain this week against Pittsburgh in their season finale.  Their key players should play little or not at all.  Can the Steelers with poor quarterback play rise up and beat the Ravens’ reserves if they couldn’t beat the Jets last week?

Tennessee has now dropped two games in a row to playoff teams in Houston and New Orleans, both at home.  Houston may have a chance to move up to a #3 seed if Kansas City is upset earlier in the day.  

Oakland closes out regular season play at Denver, where the Broncos have nothing to play for in Week 17.

Indianapolis is playing solely to get to 8-8, while Jacksonville has nothing to play for in Week 17.

We think Oakland’s chances to sneak in as the final playoff team is considerably better than 15%.  In fact, just because it would make such a great story, we are going to select the Raiders as our 6th seed to set up a probably Oakland finale against their most hated rivals.

 

AFC Seeding
1	Baltimore
2	New England
3	Kansas City
4	Houston
5	Buffalo
6	Oakland
NFC Seeding
1	Green Bay
2	New Orleans
3	Seattle
4	Philadelphia
5	San Francisco
6	Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round

Kansas City over Oakland

Buffalo over Houston

Minnesota over Seattle

San Francisco over Philadelphia

Divisional Round

Buffalo over Baltimore

Kansas City over New England

Green Bay over Minnesota

New Orleans over San Francisco

Conference Championship

Kansas City over Buffalo

New Orleans over Green Bay

Super Bowl 54

New Orleans over Kansas City