The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 27, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Football–Championship Week

This Week’s Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
BuffaloAkron12.313.413.9
UTSANorth Texas11.511.210.4
UtahUSC4.13.14.0
TCUKansas St.4.24.24.4
OhioToledo0.72.32.4
TroyCoastal Carolina8.78.89.4
GeorgiaLSU17.517.018.0
TulaneCentral Florida4.74.05.0
Boise St.Fresno St.5.95.75.8
MichiganPurdue15.615.817.3
ClemsonNorth Carolina10.210.211.5

Conference Championship Schedule

DayDateLocationConferenceTeam 1Team 2NetworkTime (EST)
FRI12/2San AntonioC-USAUTSANorth TexasCBSSN7:30 PM
FRI12/2Las VegasPac-12USCUtahFox8:00 PM
SAT12/3Arlington, TXBig 12TCUKansas St.ABC12:00 PM
SAT12/3DetroitMid-AmericanOhioToledoESPN12:00 PM
SAT12/3Troy, ALSun BeltTroyCoastal CarolinaESPN3:30 PM
SAT12/3AtlantaSECGeorgiaLSUCBS4:00 PM
SAT12/3New OrleansAmericanTulaneCentral FloridaABC4:00 PM
SAT12/3Boise, IDMountain WestBoise St.Fresno St.Fox4:00 PM
SAT12/3IndianapolisBig TenMichiganPurdueFox8:00 PM
SAT12/3CharlotteACCClemsonNorth CarolinaABC8:00 PM

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#TeamRating
1Georgia132.2
2Michigan129.9
3Ohio St.129.5
4Alabama128.6
5Penn St.124.1
6Tennessee123.1
7T C U122.1
8Kansas St.119.4
9Texas119.3
10Florida St.119.0
11Utah118.9
12Clemson117.8
13L S U116.2
14Oregon115.8
15Minnesota115.5
16U S C115.2
17Notre Dame115.0
18Illinois114.5
19Mississippi St.114.1
20Oregon St.113.7
21Washington113.6
22Baylor113.4
23Iowa113.0
24Arkansas112.7
25Wisconsin112.5
26Ole Miss112.4
27Oklahoma112.2
28Purdue112.2
29Louisville112.1
30Maryland111.2
31Pittsburgh111.0
32U C L A111.0
33Florida110.1
34Kentucky109.9
35Texas Tech109.6
36South Carolina109.1
37NC State108.9
38Texas A&M108.8
39Michigan St.108.4
40Wake Forest107.7
41Cincinnati107.3
42Tulane107.2
43Oklahoma St.107.2
44North Carolina107.2
45Auburn106.9
46Washington St.106.0
47Boise St.105.4
48UCF105.1
49Iowa St.104.6
50West Virginia104.4
51Missouri104.3
52Syracuse103.8
53Nebraska103.6
54BYU103.5
55Fresno St.102.6
56Air Force102.4
57Houston102.0
58James Madison101.8
59Duke101.8
60Kansas101.8
61SMU101.2
62U T S A100.9
63Arizona St.99.8
64Memphis99.6
65East Carolina99.2
66W. Kentucky98.7
67Arizona98.5
68Miami (Fla.)98.4
69Indiana98.4
70Troy97.9
71Appalachian St.97.9
72California97.8
73U A B97.5
74Army96.9
75Marshall96.7
76Stanford96.7
77Liberty96.3
78Georgia St.96.1
79Navy96.1
80Ohio95.9
81South Alabama95.6
82Louisiana95.6
83Georgia Tech95.3
84Virginia95.2
85San Diego St.94.8
86Virginia Tech94.7
87Northwestern94.5
88Tulsa94.5
89Toledo94.1
90Rutgers93.8
91Vanderbilt93.4
92San Jose St.93.1
93North Texas92.9
94Boston College92.8
95Coastal Carolina91.5
96Ga. Southern90.8
97Buffalo90.5
98Utah St.90.2
99Kent St.90.1
100Miami (Ohio)89.7
101Florida Atlantic89.3
102Eastern Mich.89.1
103Western Mich.88.9
104Southern Miss.88.9
105Central Mich.88.8
106Wyoming88.3
107USF88.0
108U T E P87.3
109Old Dominion87.1
110Ball St.86.5
111N. Illinois86.2
112Middle Tennessee85.9
113U N L V85.8
114Connecticut85.4
115Bowling Green84.5
116Colorado St.83.1
117UL-Monroe82.8
118Temple82.7
119Colorado81.6
120Texas St.81.3
121Akron79.8
122Nevada79.7
123Arkansas St.79.7
124New Mexico St.79.2
125Louisiana Tech79.0
126Rice78.8
127Hawaii76.3
128Charlotte75.7
129New Mexico75.5
130Massachusetts71.1
131Florida Int’l.65.1

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average
Cincinnati107.6106.7107.5107.3
Tulane107.1106.9107.6107.2
UCF104.9105.4105.1105.1
Houston102.4101.6102.0102.0
SMU101.4100.7101.4101.2
Memphis99.699.899.499.6
East Carolina99.198.899.699.2
Navy96.296.096.196.1
Tulsa94.994.294.394.5
USF88.687.787.788.0
Temple82.483.682.082.7

AAC98.698.398.498.4

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average
Florida St.119.0118.8119.1119.0
Clemson117.9117.6118.0117.8
Louisville112.3112.0112.0112.1
NC State109.4108.8108.4108.9
Wake Forest108.0107.7107.5107.7
Syracuse104.6103.6103.1103.8
Boston College93.293.491.892.8

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average
Pittsburgh111.8111.0110.3111.0
North Carolina107.7107.4106.5107.2
Duke101.4103.1100.8101.8
Miami (Fla.)99.298.397.798.4
Georgia Tech95.895.694.595.3
Virginia95.895.994.095.2
Virginia Tech95.195.393.794.7

ACC105.1104.9104.1104.7

Big 12 Conference
Team
PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average
T C U122.6121.5122.3122.1
Kansas St.119.9118.8119.4119.4
Texas119.9119.1118.8119.3
Baylor114.1112.8113.2113.4
Oklahoma112.6111.7112.4112.2
Texas Tech109.8108.9110.2109.6
Oklahoma St.108.0106.5107.0107.2
Iowa St.105.1104.4104.4104.6
West Virginia104.8104.2104.2104.4
Kansas102.9101.5101.0101.8

Big 12112.0110.9111.3111.4

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average
Michigan130.2129.6130.0129.9
Ohio St.130.1128.9129.6129.5
Penn St.124.2124.1124.1124.1
Maryland111.6111.3110.7111.2
Michigan St.109.5108.2107.4108.4
Indiana99.398.597.498.4
Rutgers95.093.992.493.8

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average
Minnesota115.9115.2115.4115.5
Illinois114.6115.0113.9114.5
Iowa113.8112.9112.3113.0
Wisconsin113.1112.6111.8112.5
Purdue113.1112.3111.2112.2
Nebraska104.1103.9103.0103.6
Northwestern94.895.293.594.5

Big Ten112.1111.5110.9111.5

Conference USA

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average
U T S A100.9100.5101.3100.9
W. Kentucky98.498.399.498.7
U A B97.497.297.997.5
North Texas92.492.393.992.9
Florida Atlantic89.190.088.989.3
U T E P87.287.387.287.3
Middle Tennessee85.786.385.785.9
Louisiana Tech78.979.778.479.0
Rice79.078.978.578.8
Charlotte75.476.275.575.7
Florida Int’l.64.966.564.065.1

CUSA86.386.786.486.5

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average
Notre Dame115.4114.3115.4115.0
BYU103.9102.7103.8103.5
Army96.597.197.296.9
Liberty95.996.796.296.3
Connecticut85.386.584.485.4
New Mexico St.78.680.578.579.2
Massachusetts71.272.169.971.1

Independents92.492.892.292.5

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average
Ohio94.596.796.595.9
Buffalo89.491.390.890.5
Kent St.89.591.189.890.1
Miami (Ohio)88.890.589.889.7
Bowling Green84.484.584.784.5
Akron79.680.479.379.8

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Toledo93.894.494.194.1
Eastern Mich.88.589.589.289.1
Western Mich.88.289.389.288.9
Central Mich.87.889.289.488.8
Ball St.85.887.286.786.5
N. Illinois86.086.586.186.2

MAC88.089.288.888.7

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average
Boise St.105.3105.0105.9105.4
Air Force102.2102.2102.9102.4
Utah St.90.090.190.490.2
Wyoming87.488.988.588.3
Colorado St.82.683.583.383.1
New Mexico76.175.874.675.5

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Fresno St.102.4102.3103.2102.6
San Diego St.94.894.495.094.8
San Jose St.92.993.193.293.1
U N L V86.185.086.185.8
Nevada79.580.579.279.7
Hawaii75.576.676.876.3

MWC89.689.889.989.8

Pac-12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average
Utah118.8118.1119.8118.9
Oregon115.9115.4116.0115.8
U S C114.7115.0115.8115.2
Oregon St.113.4113.1114.5113.7
Washington113.1113.4114.2113.6
U C L A110.6110.5111.8111.0
Washington St.105.6105.9106.5106.0
Arizona St.100.099.4100.199.8
Arizona98.398.498.998.5
California97.597.598.397.8
Stanford97.895.996.496.7
Colorado82.481.081.581.6

Pac-12105.7105.3106.1105.7

Southeastern Conference
East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average
Georgia132.4131.5132.8132.2
Tennessee122.7122.9123.7123.1
Florida109.6110.7110.1110.1
Kentucky109.5109.8110.3109.9
South Carolina109.1108.9109.2109.1
Missouri104.3104.5103.9104.3
Vanderbilt93.394.092.793.4

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average
Alabama128.7127.8129.2128.6
L S U116.4116.0116.3116.2
Mississippi St.115.0113.6113.9114.1
Arkansas113.1111.9113.1112.7
Ole Miss113.2111.8112.1112.4
Texas A&M108.7108.9108.9108.8
Auburn107.5106.3106.8106.9

SEC113.1112.8113.1113.0

Sunbelt Conference
East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average
James Madison100.2101.6103.7101.8
Appalachian St.97.198.098.597.9
Marshall95.996.997.396.7
Georgia St.95.695.797.196.1
Coastal Carolina90.891.791.991.5
Ga. Southern90.490.691.590.8
Old Dominion86.987.087.387.1

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average
Troy97.097.998.997.9
South Alabama94.895.596.595.6
Louisiana94.995.496.495.6
Southern Miss.88.388.989.488.9
UL-Monroe82.682.982.882.8
Texas St.80.781.781.681.3
Arkansas St.79.280.279.679.7

Sun Belt91.091.792.391.7

Conference Ratings

#ConferenceRating
1Southeastern113.0
2Big Ten111.5
3Big 12111.4
4Pac-12105.7
5Atlantic Coast104.7
6American Athletic98.4
7Independents92.5
8Sun Belt91.7
9Mountain West89.8
10Mid-American88.7
11Conference USA86.5

Bowl Projections

As of this morning, Sunday, November 27, 2022, there are 80 Bowl Eligible teams for 82 slots in bowls. There are three teams that can still become bowl eligible. Buffalo is 5-6. They host Akron in the makeup game that was postponed when Buffalo was blanketed with feet of snow. Army is 5-6, and a win over Navy would make the Black Knights bowl eligible. New Mexico State is 5-6, and it is not yet determined if the Aggies will get the opportunity to makeup their postponed game with San Jose State. In a wild and crazy world, NMSU has two other options that could work to supply them a replacement game. Virginia Tech had their game with Virginia cancelled and could get an extra game. Vanderbilt had the opportunity to play a 13th game having played in Hawaii, and the Commodores could get an extra game. It’s about 99% certain that neither team would play in Las Cruces on Saturday. Only San Jose State might still agree to playing the game.

Appalachian State has six wins, but two came against FCS teams. The rules state that only one FCS win can be counted toward bowl eligibility, but when there are not enough bowl eligible teams, a team may receive a waiver.

If one or two 5-7 teams need to be added to the bowl schedule, the Academic Progress Rate score determines which team(s) can go. This year, if one additional 5-win team is needed, it will be Rice. If a second 5-7 team is needed, it will be UNLV. For now, we will predict Army and Buffalo to get their sixth wins, and Appy State will get their waiver with two FCS wins.

BowlTeamTeam
BahamasMiami (O)UAB
CureTroyAir Force
FenwayPittsburghCincinnati
New MexicoWyomingNorth Texas
L.A.OregonBoise St.
Lending TreeToledoSouthern Miss.
Las VegasUCLASouth Carolina
FriscoFresno St.Houston
Myrtle BeachMarshallConecticut
Famous Idaho PotatoUtah St.Bowling Green
Boca RatonCoastal CarolinaLiberty
New OrleansSouth AlabamaWestern Kentucky
Armed ForcesCentral FloridaUTSA
IndependenceSMUArmy
GasparillaWake ForestArkansas
HawaiiSan Diego St.Middle Tennessee
Quick LaneBuffaloLouisiana
CamelliaOhioGeorgia Southern
First ResponderBYUKansas
BirminghamMemphisAppalachian St.
Guaranteed RateWisconsinBaylor
MilitarySyracsueEast Carolina
LibertyOklahomaMissouri
HolidayUtahNotre Dame
TexasTexas TechOle Miss
PinstripeIowaNorth Carolina St.
Cheez-ItNorth CarolinaOklahoma St.
AlamoTexasOregon St.
Duke’s MayoDukeMinnesota
Tony the Tiger SunFlorida St.Washington St.
ArizonaSan Jose St.Eastern Michigan
OrangeClemsonTennessee
Music CityMarylandKentucky
SugarAlabamaKansas St.
TaxSlayerFloridaLouisville
PeachGeorgiaUSC
FiestaMichiganTCU
Reliaquest (Outback)Mississippi St.Illinois
CitrusLSUPurdue
CottonPenn St.Tulane
RoseOhio St.Washington
National ChampionshipGeorgiaMichigan

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