The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 21, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 8: October 24-28, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Margins

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Minnesota

Washington

19.2

16.5

17.7

Detroit

N.Y. Giants

8.5

6.8

7.2

Tennessee

Tampa Bay

4.8

2.7

1.9

Chicago

LA Chargers

8.3

4.6

5.8

Atlanta

Seattle

-4.7

-4.1

-4.8

Jacksonville

N.Y. Jets

9.6

9.0

10.7

Buffalo

Philadelphia

-2.0

1.2

1.1

LA Rams

Cincinnati

13.6

12.3

12.1

New Orleans

Arizona

16.8

13.3

13.1

Houston

Oakland

10.3

10.7

9.7

San Francisco

Carolina

5.0

6.1

5.7

Indianapolis

Denver

4.0

4.7

4.6

New England

Cleveland

14.2

15.1

14.6

Kansas City

Green Bay

-0.7

-0.3

-1.3

Pittsburgh

Miami

15.1

15.2

15.9

 

Totals

Home

Visitor

Total

Minnesota

Washington

41

Detroit

N.Y. Giants

48.5

Tennessee

Tampa Bay

44

Chicago

LA Chargers

41.5

Atlanta

Seattle

52

Jacksonville

N.Y. Jets

39.5

Buffalo

Philadelphia

43

LA Rams

Cincinnati

52

New Orleans

Arizona

48

Houston

Oakland

48

San Francisco

Carolina

47.5

Indianapolis

Denver

41

New England

Cleveland

44.5

Kansas City

Green Bay

56.5

Pittsburgh

Miami

48

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New England

111.0

112.2

111.8

111.7

21

7-0

Buffalo

99.4

100.6

100.1

100.0

17.5

5-1

N. Y. Jets

92.5

93.5

92.2

92.7

20.5

1-5

Miami

86.8

87.0

86.6

86.8

26.5

0-6

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Baltimore

101.7

101.3

102.3

101.8

23

5-2

Cleveland

99.8

100.1

100.2

100.0

23.5

2-4

Pittsburgh

98.8

99.3

99.6

99.2

21.5

2-4

Cincinnati

93.6

93.4

93.8

93.6

24

0-7

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Houston

103.9

104.2

103.8

104.0

23.5

4-3

Indianapolis

100.1

101.0

100.6

100.6

22.5

4-2

Jacksonville

99.1

99.5

99.9

99.5

19

3-4

Tennessee

98.1

98.4

98.0

98.2

15.5

3-4

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Kansas City

100.7

101.2

100.6

100.8

30.5

5-2

LA Chargers

99.5

99.7

98.8

99.3

22

2-5

Denver

99.2

99.3

99.0

99.2

18.5

2-5

Oakland

96.6

96.6

97.1

96.8

24.5

3-3

 

 

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Dallas

104.1

104.7

104.1

104.3

20.5

4-3

Philadelphia

103.9

101.9

101.5

102.4

25.5

3-4

N.Y. Giants

94.1

94.5

95.0

94.5

24.5

2-5

Washington

91.2

92.2

91.6

91.7

18.5

1-6

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Minnesota

107.4

105.7

106.2

106.5

22.5

5-2

Green Bay

104.5

104.5

104.9

104.6

26

6-1

Chicago

104.8

101.3

101.6

102.6

19.5

3-3

Detroit

99.5

98.4

99.2

99.1

24

2-3-1

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New Orleans

108.2

105.2

105.6

106.3

24.5

6-1

Carolina

102.3

102.5

103.3

102.7

24.5

4-2

Tampa Bay

95.9

98.2

98.6

97.6

28.5

2-4

Atlanta

94.8

95.1

94.4

94.7

26.5

1-6

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

LA Rams

107.2

105.7

105.9

106.3

28

4-3

San Francisco

104.3

105.6

106.0

105.3

23

6-0

Seattle

102.5

102.2

102.2

102.3

25.5

6-1

Arizona

94.5

94.9

95.5

95.0

23.5

3-3-1

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

 

AFC Seeding

1

New England

2

Indianapolis

3

Kansas City

4

Baltimore

5

Buffalo

6

Houston

NFC Seeding

1

Green Bay

2

New Orleans

3

San Francisco

4

Dallas

5

Minnesota

6

LA Rams

Wildcard Round

Kansas City over Houston

Buffalo over Baltimore

LA Rams over San Francisco

Minnesota over Dallas

Divisional Round

New England over Buffalo

Kansas City over Indianapolis

Green Bay over LA Rams

New Orleans over Minnesota

Conference Championship

New England over Kansas City

Green Bay over New Orleans

Super Bowl 54

New England over Green Bay

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 23, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 4: September 26-30, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

 

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Total

Green Bay

Philadelphia

0.7

3.6

4.1

47

Houston

Carolina

5.5

5.9

4.7

45.5

Baltimore

Cleveland

4.6

3.8

5.0

45

N.Y. Giants

Washington

2.4

1.9

2.9

46.5

Miami

LA Chargers

-13.0

-13.4

-12.8

49.5

Indianapolis

Oakland

6.1

6.9

5.8

45

Detroit

Kansas City

-4.2

-6.3

-4.6

52.5

Buffalo

New England

-8.2

-8.0

-8.0

41

Atlanta

Tennessee

3.9

4.7

4.2

44

LA Rams

Tampa Bay

18.3

13.0

12.9

53.5

Arizona

Seattle

-5.1

-4.4

-3.8

48

Chicago

Minnesota

4.4

2.8

3.0

42

Denver

Jacksonville

4.3

3.6

3.0

38

New Orleans

Dallas

5.9

1.0

1.6

45.5

Pittsburgh

Cincinnati

1.5

1.9

1.5

47.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

A F C

 

East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 108.5 109.6 108.9 109.0 22 3-0
Buffalo 97.8 99.1 98.4 98.4 19 3-0
N. Y. Jets 94.4 95.7 94.3 94.8 22.5 0-3
Miami 86.3 86.2 85.7 86.1 27 0-3
 

 

North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Baltimore 102.3 101.9 103.1 102.5 22.5 2-1
Cleveland 100.8 101.1 101.1 101.0 22.5 1-2
Cincinnati 97.0 96.8 97.5 97.1 25.5 0-3
Pittsburgh 96.0 96.3 96.5 96.2 22 0-3
 

 

South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Houston 103.4 103.5 103.1 103.4 22 2-1
Tennessee 99.0 99.2 99.2 99.1 18 1-2
Indianapolis 98.1 99.0 98.4 98.5 22.5 2-1
Jacksonville 97.6 98.3 98.5 98.1 18 1-2
 

 

West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 106.6 107.4 106.9 107.0 31 3-0
LA Chargers 102.3 102.6 101.6 102.1 22.5 1-2
Denver 98.9 98.9 98.5 98.8 20 0-3
Oakland 95.0 95.1 95.6 95.2 22.5 1-2
 

 

N F C

 

East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Dallas 103.7 104.8 104.4 104.3 20.5 3-0
Philadelphia 104.4 101.8 101.5 102.5 23.5 1-2
Washington 94.7 96.0 95.8 95.5 21.5 0-3
N.Y. Giants 94.6 95.4 96.2 95.4 25 1-2
 

 

North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Chicago 106.2 102.5 102.8 103.8 20.5 2-1
Minnesota 104.8 102.7 102.8 103.5 21.5 2-1
Green Bay 102.1 102.4 102.6 102.4 23.5 3-0
Detroit 99.4 98.1 99.2 98.9 21.5 2-0-1
 

 

South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 107.1 103.3 103.5 104.6 25 2-1
Carolina 100.9 100.6 101.4 101.0 23.5 1-2
Atlanta 100.0 100.9 100.4 100.4 26 1-2
Tampa Bay 93.4 96.5 96.9 95.6 27 1-2
 

 

West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 108.7 106.5 106.8 107.3 26.5 3-0
Seattle 102.1 101.9 101.8 101.9 25 2-1
San Francisco 99.9 101.4 101.6 101.0 24.5 3-0
Arizona 94.0 94.4 95.0 94.5 23 0-2-1

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

 

AFC Seeding
1 New England
2 Kansas City
3 Baltimore
4 Indianapolis
5 Buffalo
6 Houston

 

NFC Seeding
1 LA Rams
2 Dallas
3 Green Bay
4 New Orleans
5 Minnesota
6 San Francisco

 

Wildcard Round
Houston over Baltimore
Indianapolis over Buffalo
Green Bay over San Francisco
New Orleans over Minnesota
 

 

Divisional Round
New England over Houston
Kansas City over Indianapolis
LA Rams over New Orleans
Green Bay over Dallas
 

 

Conference Championship
New England over Kansas City
LA Rams over Green Bay
 

 

Super Bowl 53
New England over LA Rams

 

 

 

September 18, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For September 19-23, 2019

Well, hello there.  Welcome to the worst sports picks on the Internet in 2019.  These last two weeks have been so monumentally terrible, that one must go back to 1982 to find a worse two weeks for our selections.  Why have we gone from so good in 2018 to so rotten this year?  If we only knew the answer to that question.

One thing we noticed is that our parlays have been 67% correct, or in other words, we are hitting on all but one game in each parlay.  Or, in other words, if we had re-arranged our picks, we could have in theory won well over half of these selections.  There’s the rub.  When you pick parlays, you have to be 100% right to win your parlay.

We have decided to stick with what has worked for us in the past and hope to improve enough to get back into the black before the end of the year.  It’s going to be a tough hill to climb, but we issue our selections without any stress.

Why is this stress free?  We NEVER wager real money on our selections.  We are in this for fun, and we have always advised you to do the same.  Even in years where our picks would have in theory returned you more than 40% on your investment, we never took ourselves seriously enough to have faith in these choices.

You have had your weekly forewarning.  DO NOT WAGER REAL MONEY ON THESE PICKS!

Odds as of 2:00 PM EDT on Wednesday, September 18

 

Selection #1: 10-point Teaser, 3 teams at 10-12

 

Houston + 15 1/2 vs. Tulane

Boston College +3 vs. Rutgers

Louisiana-Monroe +29 vs. Iowa St.

 

Selection #2: 10-point Teaser, 3 teams at 10-12

 

Northwestern +19 1/2 vs. Michigan St.

TCU + 1/2 vs. SMU

Wyoming +13 1/2 vs. Tulsa

 

Selection #3: 10-point Teaser, 3 teams at 10-12

 

New Mexico St. +15 vs. New Mexico

Oklahoma St. +15 1/2 vs. Texas

Nevada -4 1/2 vs. UTEP

 

Selection #4: 10-point Teaser, 3 teams at 10-12

 

Jacksonville + 11 1/2 vs. Tennessee

Green Bay +2 vs. Denver

Cincinnati +16 vs. Buffalo

 

Selection #5: 10-point Teaser, 3 teams at 10-12

 

Carolina +7 1/2 vs. Arizona

Seattle +6 vs. New Orleans

San Francisco +3 1/2 vs. Pittsburgh

 

Selection #6: 10-point Teaser, 3 teams at 10-12

 

Tennessee & Jacksonville OVER 29

New England & NY Jets OVER 33 1/2

Dallas & Miami UNDER 57 1/2

 

Selection #7: Money Line Parlay, 2 teams at +152

 

Syracuse over Western Michigan

North Carolina over Appalachian St.

 

Selection #8: Money Line Parlay, 3 teams at +137

 

Louisiana Tech over Florida Int’l.

TCU over SMU

Arizona St. over Colorado

 

Selection #9: Money Line Parlay, 3 teams at +180

 

Boston College over Rutgers

Texas A&M over Auburn

UAB over South Alabama

 

Davey19

The experimental Davey19 model took it on the chin as well last week, and it went into the red for the season.  This week, we double-checked the information to make sure we interpreted the statistical data correctly, and it looks like we made no mistakes in the calculations last week.  The picks just plain stunk.

 

Here are Davey19’s selections as we play it a little more conservatively.

 

  1. Stanford & Oregon UNDER 58 1/2

  2. Air Force & Boise St. UNDER 55

  3. Northwestern +9 1/2 vs. Michigan St.

  4. Illinois +13 1/2 vs. Nebraska

  5. Ole Miss -2 vs. California

September 16, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 3: September 19-23, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Jacksonville

Tennessee

-0.8

-0.5

-0.5

Green Bay

Denver

4.4

4.5

4.9

Philadelphia

Detroit

9.4

7.9

6.5

Kansas City

Baltimore

7.0

8.6

6.9

Buffalo

Cincinnati

3.1

4.8

3.2

Indianapolis

Atlanta

0.4

0.4

0.3

Minnesota

Oakland

11.1

8.9

8.3

New England

N.Y. Jets

15.3

14.9

15.4

Dallas

Miami

19.1

20.1

20.0

Tampa Bay

N.Y. Giants

1.8

4.7

4.5

Arizona

Carolina

-1.1

-0.2

0.0

Seattle

New Orleans

-1.6

2.6

2.5

LA Chargers

Houston

3.1

3.5

3.1

San Francisco

Pittsburgh

7.1

8.7

8.7

Cleveland

LA Rams

-4.7

-1.8

-1.9

Washington

Chicago

-8.0

-1.6

-1.9

Totals

Home

Visitor

Total

Jacksonville

Tennessee

38

Green Bay

Denver

43.5

Philadelphia

Detroit

44

Kansas City

Baltimore

52.5

Buffalo

Cincinnati

46

Indianapolis

Atlanta

48.5

Minnesota

Oakland

44

New England

N.Y. Jets

44.5

Dallas

Miami

49.5

Tampa Bay

N.Y. Giants

51

Arizona

Carolina

45

Seattle

New Orleans

48

LA Chargers

Houston

44.5

San Francisco

Pittsburgh

46.5

Cleveland

LA Rams

50.5

Washington

Chicago

42

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New England

108.0

109.0

108.2

108.4

22

2-0

Buffalo

97.7

99.1

98.3

98.4

19.5

2-0

N. Y. Jets

95.2

96.6

95.3

95.7

22.5

0-2

Miami

86.7

86.7

86.3

86.6

28

0-2

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Baltimore

102.2

101.6

102.8

102.2

22

2-0

Cleveland

100.9

101.4

101.5

101.3

23.5

1-1

Cincinnati

97.1

96.8

97.6

97.2

26.5

0-2

Pittsburgh

95.9

96.0

96.2

96.0

22

0-2

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Houston

102.4

102.4

101.9

102.3

22

1-1

Tennessee

100.1

100.4

100.5

100.3

19

1-1

Indianapolis

98.0

98.9

98.3

98.4

22.5

1-1

Jacksonville

96.8

97.4

97.5

97.2

19

0-2

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Kansas City

106.7

107.7

107.2

107.2

30.5

2-0

LA Chargers

103.0

103.4

102.5

102.9

22.5

1-1

Denver

99.4

99.5

99.2

99.4

20

0-2

Oakland

95.6

95.7

96.3

95.9

22.5

1-1

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Dallas

103.3

104.3

103.8

103.8

21.5

2-0

Philadelphia

105.5

102.8

102.5

103.6

23

1-1

Washington

95.2

97.2

97.1

96.5

21.5

0-2

N.Y. Giants

94.2

94.7

95.4

94.8

24.5

0-2

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Chicago

105.7

101.3

101.5

102.8

20.5

1-1

Minnesota

104.2

102.1

102.1

102.8

21.5

1-1

Green Bay

101.3

101.5

101.6

101.5

23.5

2-0

Detroit

98.6

97.4

98.5

98.2

21

1-0-1

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New Orleans

106.9

102.8

102.9

104.2

24

1-1

Atlanta

100.1

101.0

100.5

100.5

26

1-1

Carolina

99.5

99.1

99.7

99.4

23

0-2

Tampa Bay

93.5

96.9

97.4

95.9

26.5

1-1

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

LA Rams

108.6

106.2

106.4

107.1

27

2-0

Seattle

102.3

102.4

102.4

102.4

24

2-0

San Francisco

100.0

101.7

101.9

101.2

24.5

2-0

Arizona

95.4

95.9

96.7

96.0

22

0-1-1

 

Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding

1

New England

2

Kansas City

3

Baltimore

4

Indianapolis

5

Buffalo

6

Cleveland

 

 

NFC Seeding

1

LA Rams

2

Dallas

3

Green Bay

4

Atlanta

5

Philadelphia

6

Seattle

Wildcard Round

Baltimore over Cleveland

Buffalo over Indianapolis

Green Bay over Seattle

Philadelphia over Atlanta

 

 

Divisional Round

New England over Buffalo

Kansas City over Baltimore

LA Rams over Philadelphia

Green Bay over Dallas

 

 

Conference Championship

New England over Kansas City

LA Rams over Green Bay

 

 

Super Bowl 53

New England over LA Rams

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 9, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 2: September 12-16, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Carolina

Tampa Bay

11.3

7.1

7.4

Atlanta

Philadelphia

-4.5

-0.7

-1.1

Baltimore

Arizona

10.9

9.9

10.5

Cincinnati

San Francisco

5.0

2.7

3.6

Denver

Chicago

-3.1

1.8

1.5

Detroit

LA Chargers

-2.5

-4.8

-2.5

Green Bay

Minnesota

-1.9

0.8

0.7

Houston

Jacksonville

9.0

8.7

8.2

LA Rams

New Orleans

-0.4

1.7

1.6

Miami

New England

-13.2

-14.3

-13.3

N.Y. Giants

Buffalo

1.4

0.6

2.6

Oakland

Kansas City

-5.4

-6.1

-4.8

Pittsburgh

Seattle

0.4

0.6

1.2

Tennessee

Indianapolis

7.3

7.0

8.0

Washington

Dallas

-4.0

-2.5

-1.7

N.Y. Jets

Cleveland

1.5

2.6

1.3

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

Home

Visitors

Totals

Carolina

Tampa Bay

51

Atlanta

Philadelphia

49

Baltimore

Arizona

44

Cincinnati

San Francisco

50

Denver

Chicago

42

Detroit

LA Chargers

45

Green Bay

Minnesota

46

Houston

Jacksonville

43

LA Rams

New Orleans

54

Miami

New England

49

N.Y. Giants

Buffalo

44

Oakland

Kansas City

54.5

Pittsburgh

Seattle

48

Tennessee

Indianapolis

42.5

Washington

Dallas

41

N.Y. Jets

Cleveland

47.5

 

This Week’s NFL PiRate Ratings

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New England

105.5

106.6

105.5

105.9

23

1-0

N. Y. Jets

96.8

98.4

97.1

97.4

23.5

0-1

Buffalo

95.9

97.3

96.2

96.5

19.5

1-0

Miami

89.9

89.8

89.7

89.8

26

0-1

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Baltimore

102.2

101.7

103.0

102.3

22

1-0

Cincinnati

99.3

98.8

99.8

99.3

25.5

0-1

Pittsburgh

98.7

98.9

99.3

98.9

24

0-1

Cleveland

98.4

98.7

98.8

98.6

24

0-1

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Houston

102.6

102.7

102.3

102.6

23

0-1

Tennessee

101.1

101.5

101.8

101.5

19.5

1-0

Indianapolis

96.8

97.6

96.8

97.1

23

0-1

Jacksonville

96.1

96.6

96.6

96.4

20

0-1

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Kansas City

105.1

106.0

105.4

105.5

31

1-0

LA Chargers

103.7

104.4

103.4

103.8

23.5

1-0

Denver

99.4

99.7

99.5

99.5

21

0-1

Oakland

96.7

96.9

97.6

97.1

23.5

1-0

 

 

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Philadelphia

106.3

103.5

103.3

104.3

23

1-0

Dallas

102.3

103.1

102.4

102.6

20.5

1-0

Washington

95.4

97.6

97.7

96.9

20.5

0-1

N.Y. Giants

95.3

95.8

96.8

96.0

24.5

0-1

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Minnesota

104.8

102.5

102.6

103.3

22

1-0

Chicago

105.5

100.9

101.0

102.5

21

0-1

Green Bay

100.4

100.8

100.8

100.7

24

1-0

Detroit

98.1

96.6

97.8

97.5

21.5

0-0-1

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New Orleans

110.5

106.2

106.4

107.7

27

1-0

Carolina

100.8

100.2

100.9

100.6

24

0-1

Atlanta

98.8

99.8

99.2

99.2

26

0-1

Tampa Bay

92.0

95.6

96.0

94.5

27

0-1

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

LA Rams

107.1

104.9

105.0

105.7

27

1-0

Seattle

101.8

101.8

101.6

101.7

24

1-0

San Francisco

97.8

99.7

99.7

99.1

24.5

1-0

Arizona

94.9

95.3

96.0

95.4

22

0-0-1

 

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

 

AFC Seeding

1

New England

2

Kansas City

3

Baltimore

4

Tennessee

5

LA Chargers

6

Houston

 

 

NFC Seeding

1

LA Rams

2

Dallas

3

Minnesota

4

New Orleans

5

Philadelphia

6

Green Bay

 

Wildcard Round

Houston over Baltimore

LA Chargers over Tennessee

Minnesota over Green Bay

Philadelphia over New Orleans

 

 

Divisional Round

New England over Houston

LA Chargers over Kansas City

LA Rams over Philadelphia

Dallas over Minnesota

 

 

Conference Championship

New England over LA Chargers

Dallas over LA Rams

 

 

Super Bowl 53

Dallas over New England

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 3, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 1: September 5-9, 2019

PiRate Ratings Spreads For Week 1

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Total

Chicago

Green Bay

12.1

6.5

6.8

46.5

Minnesota

Atlanta

8.2

4.3

5.1

48

Philadelphia

Washington

14.4

8.8

8.7

42.5

NY Jets

Buffalo

4.2

4.6

4.6

44

Miami

Baltimore

-1.5

-1.0

-2.3

44.5

Tampa Bay

San Francisco

-0.4

1.9

2.7

51.5

Jacksonville

Kansas City

-3.7

-3.9

-3.1

50

Cleveland

Tennessee

4.7

5.1

4.9

42.5

Carolina

LA Rams

-2.7

-0.7

0.4

50

Arizona

Detroit

-0.3

2.0

1.4

43.5

Seattle

Cincinnati

6.2

7.1

5.7

49.5

LA Chargers

Indianapolis

11.7

11.9

11.9

46.5

Dallas

NY Giants

8.9

8.8

6.8

45

New England

Pittsburgh

4.7

5.4

3.5

48

New Orleans

Houston

11.4

6.4

7.2

49

Oakland

Denver

-1.2

-1.6

-0.9

44.5

 

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New England

103.2

104.2

102.9

103.4

23.5

0-0

N. Y. Jets

97.2

98.9

97.7

97.9

24

0-0

Buffalo

95.5

96.8

95.6

96.0

20

0-0

Miami

94.6

94.5

94.4

94.5

23.5

0-0

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Pittsburgh

101.0

101.3

101.9

101.4

24.5

0-0

Cleveland

100.4

100.9

101.0

100.8

23.5

0-0

Baltimore

99.0

98.5

99.8

99.1

21

0-0

Cincinnati

98.8

98.1

99.2

98.7

25.5

0-0

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Houston

102.1

102.5

102.0

102.2

22.5

0-0

Tennessee

98.6

98.8

99.1

98.8

19

0-0

Jacksonville

97.4

98.0

98.1

97.8

19.5

0-0

Indianapolis

95.7

96.4

95.5

95.9

23

0-0

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

LA Chargers

104.5

105.3

104.4

104.7

23.5

0-0

Kansas City

104.1

104.9

104.2

104.4

30.5

0-0

Denver

100.2

100.6

100.5

100.4

21

0-0

Oakland

95.9

96.0

96.6

96.2

23.5

0-0

 

 

 

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Philadelphia

106.8

103.7

103.6

104.7

22.5

0-0

Dallas

101.7

102.4

101.5

101.9

20.5

0-0

N.Y. Giants

95.9

96.5

97.7

96.7

24.5

0-0

Washington

94.9

97.4

97.4

96.6

20

0-0

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Chicago

107.6

102.7

102.9

104.4

22

0-0

Minnesota

104.4

101.8

101.9

102.7

22

0-0

Green Bay

98.0

98.7

98.6

98.4

24.5

0-0

Detroit

98.1

96.5

97.7

97.5

21.5

0-0

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New Orleans

111.0

106.4

106.7

108.0

26.5

0-0

Carolina

100.8

100.4

101.4

100.9

23.5

0-0

Atlanta

99.2

100.5

99.9

99.8

26

0-0

Tampa Bay

92.8

96.7

97.3

95.6

27

0-0

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

LA Rams

107.0

104.6

104.4

105.3

26.5

0-0

Seattle

102.0

102.2

101.9

102.0

24

0-0

San Francisco

96.7

98.3

98.1

97.7

24.5

0-0

Arizona

94.9

95.4

96.1

95.5

22

0-0

 

Playoff Projections

 

AFC Seeding

1

New England

2

LA Chargers

3

Pittsburgh

4

Houston

5

Cleveland

6

Kansas City

 

 

NFC Seeding

1

New Orleans

2

Chicago

3

LA Rams

4

Philadelphia

5

Seattle

6

Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round

Pittsburgh over Kansas City

Cleveland over Houston

LA Rams over Minnesota

Seattle over Philadelphia

Divisional Round

New England over Cleveland

LA Chargers over Pittsburgh

New Orleans over Seattle

LA Rams over Chicago

Conference Championship

New England over LA Chargers

New Orleans over LA Rams

Super Bowl 53

New Orleans over New England

 

 

 

 

 

January 14, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for The Conference Championship Playoff Round: January 20, 2019

Sunday, January 20, 2019

NFC Championship Game

Los Angeles Rams 14-3-0 at New Orleans Saints 14-3-0

Time: 3:05 PM Eastern Standard Time

TV: Fox

Monday Line: New Orleans by 3 1/2

Total Line: 57

PiRate Ratings 

PiRate: New Orleans by 8.1

Mean: New Orleans by 7.8

Bias: New Orleans by 8.1

Total: 55 1/2

Expected Score: New Orleans 31  Los Angeles 24

 

AFC Championship Game

New England Patriots 12-5-0 at Kansas City Chiefs 13-4-0

Time: 6:40 PM Eastern Standard Time

TV: CBS

Monday Line: Kansas City by 3

Total Line: 57

PiRate Ratings 

PiRate: Kansas City by 4.4

Mean: Kansas City by 4.4

Bias: Kansas City by 4.3

Total: 53

Expected Score:  Kansas City 28  New England 24

 

60 Seasons Ago

The NFL as we know it today owes its popularity to 60 years ago at the conclusion of the 1958 regular season.  This would be the first ever live nationally televised NFL Championship Game.  Before you wonder why other games before were not shown from coast to coast, just 10 years before only a handful of cities had television stations.  In some cities, only a test pattern was shown for most or all of the day, and people would turn their sets on to see it!  So, TV was still in its adolescence in 1958.

The upstart Baltimore Colts, led by the young and talented quarterback Johnny Unitas, fullback Alan Ameche, and two incredible pass catchers in Raymond Berry and Lenny Moore won the West Division Championship with a 9-3 record, 8-1 in the games Unitas started and played.  That one loss was to the New York Giants, a team with the greatest ever combination of offensive and defensive coordinators.  Vince Lombardi directed the Giants’ offense, and Tom Landry led the Giants’ defense.

Before the Giants could host this game in Yankee Stadium, they had to play an extra game to get to the NFL Championship Game.  The Giants finished tied with Cleveland at 9-3, and even though they had swept the Browns in the regular season, in those days if teams finished tied at the top of a division race, they played again for the division title, and the NFL Championship Game was re-scheduled for a week later.

New York stopped Cleveland for a third time that year, holding the great Jim Brown to just eight yards rushing in a 10-0 shutout.  The Giants were the favorites, and Jim Lee Howell and his coaching staff were more than prepared to contain Unitas and move the ball on offense with a conservative smash-mouth style of offense.

Like I said previously, it is because of this game that the NFL became what it is today.  Overnight, sports fans throughout the country stopped talking about the New York Yankees chances of repeating as World Series champions in 1959 (they would not), or whether the great two-year old thoroughbred Sword Dancer would break the 11-year string and win the Triple Crown (2nd in the Derby and Preakness and won the Belmont).

NFL Football was at best the number three sport in America before this game.  Major League baseball was still the number one sport and the real American Pastime.  There were still just 16 teams in the big leagues, even though two had left the number one market for the West Coast.  College football was number two, and the recent champion LSU Tigers with their famous Chinese Bandits had generated a lot of the headlines that Autumn.

If by chance you do not know how the NFL Championship Game turned out and why it “made” NFL Football into the number one spectator sport in the nation, take a look at this video from NFL Films.

 

January 8, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for The Divisional Playoff Round: January 12-13, 2019

NFL Divisional Playoff Round Ratings and Information

 

Saturday, January 12, 2019

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs

Time: 4:35 PM Eastern Standard

TV: NBC

Pirate Ratings Spreads

PiRate: Kansas City by 6.4 

Mean: Kansas City by 7.2

Bias: Kansas City by 5.7

Total: 55

Expected Score: Kansas City 31  Indianapolis 24

———————————————————————————-

Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams

Time: 8:15 PM Eastern Standard

TV: Fox 

Pirate Ratings Spreads

PiRate:  Los Angeles by 8.5

Mean: Los Angeles by 8.8

Bias: Los Angeles by 8.8

Total: 49.5

Expected Score: Los Angeles 30  Dallas 21

—————————————————————————-

Sunday, January 13, 2019

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots

Time: 1:05 PM Eastern Standard

TV: CBS

PiRate Ratings Spreads

PiRate: New England by 3.5

Mean: New England by 2.8

Bias: New England by 2.7

Total: 45.5

Expected Score: New England 24  Los Angeles 21

———————————————————————————-

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints

Time: 4:40 PM Eastern Standard

TV: Fox

PiRate Ratings Spreads

PiRate: New Orleans by 12.8 

Mean: New Orleans by 12.5

Bias: New Orleans by 12.4

Total: 49

Expected Score: New Orleans 31  Philadelphia 17

December 18, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 16: December 20-24, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Tennessee Washington 6.9 7.5 6.8 41.5
L.A. Chargers Baltimore 4.8 5.2 5.4 44.5
Dallas Tampa Bay 7.2 6.8 5.7 44.5
Indianapolis N.Y. Giants 9.0 8.5 9.4 47.5
Philadelphia Houston 3.2 3.4 2.7 46.5
Miami Jacksonville -0.2 0.1 0.3 42
N.Y. Jets Green Bay -2.4 -3.3 -2.7 48
Cleveland Cincinnati 4.8 4.8 5.6 47.5
Detroit Minnesota -1.2 -1.5 -1.6 44.5
New England Buffalo 15.5 15.8 15.6 39.5
Carolina Atlanta 3.5 3.5 4.0 50
San Francisco Chicago -6.7 -6.7 -7.7 45
Arizona L.A. Rams -10.5 -11.4 -10.9 47
New Orleans Pittsburgh 8.0 7.8 8.0 50.5
Seattle Kansas City -0.2 -0.3 0.5 52.5
Oakland Denver -6.2 -6.0 -6.2 41

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 105.2 105.4 105.2 105.3 22.5 9-5
N. Y. Jets 94.9 94.4 94.5 94.6 24 4-10
Miami 94.6 94.3 94.4 94.4 23.5 7-7
Buffalo 92.7 92.7 92.6 92.6 17 5-9
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 107.0 107.2 107.1 107.1 24 8-5-1
Baltimore 103.3 103.6 103.3 103.4 20.5 8-6
Cleveland 97.5 97.8 98.3 97.9 24 6-7-1
Cincinnati 95.3 95.5 95.1 95.3 23.5 6-8
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Indianapolis 103.1 102.5 103.5 103.0 25 8-6
Houston 102.3 102.4 102.9 102.5 24 10-4
Tennessee 98.7 98.8 98.6 98.7 19.5 8-6
Jacksonville 96.7 96.2 96.1 96.3 18.5 4-10
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 107.3 107.5 107.1 107.3 30 11-3
LA Chargers 105.0 105.8 105.7 105.5 24 11-3
Denver 99.8 99.7 99.7 99.7 19.5 6-8
Oakland 91.1 91.2 91.0 91.1 21.5 3-11
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 102.5 102.7 102.6 102.6 22.5 7-7
Dallas 100.6 100.4 100.0 100.3 19.5 8-6
N.Y. Giants 97.0 97.0 97.2 97.1 22.5 5-9
Washington 94.4 93.8 94.3 94.2 22 7-7
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Chicago 105.0 105.2 105.9 105.4 23 10-4
Minnesota 102.5 102.5 102.3 102.4 21 7-6-1
Green Bay 99.8 100.2 99.7 99.9 24 5-8-1
Detroit 98.8 98.6 98.2 98.5 23.5 5-9
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 112.5 112.5 112.6 112.5 26.5 12-2
Carolina 100.7 100.3 100.6 100.5 24 6-8
Atlanta 99.6 99.4 99.2 99.4 26 5-9
Tampa Bay 95.9 96.1 96.8 96.3 25 5-9
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 105.7 105.9 105.5 105.7 28.5 11-3
Seattle 104.1 104.2 104.7 104.3 22.5 8-6
San Francisco 95.4 95.4 95.2 95.3 22 4-10
Arizona 92.7 92.1 92.0 92.3 18.5 3-11

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

These projections are not to be confused with how the seedings would be if the playoffs started today.  They forecast the final two weeks of games.

AFC Seeding
1 L.A. Chargers
2 New England
3 Houston
4 Pittsburgh
5 Kansas City
6 Tennessee

 

NFC Seeding
1 New Orleans
2 L.A. Rams
3 Chicago
4 Dallas
5 Seattle
6 Minnesota

 

Playoff Projections

Wildcard Round
Houston over Tennessee
Pittsburgh over Kansas City
Chicago over Minnesota
Seattle over Dallas

 

Divisional Round
L.A. Chargers over Houston
New England over Pittsburgh
New Orleans over Seattle
Chicago over L.A. Rams

 

Conference Championships
L.A. Chargers over New England
New Orleans over Chicago

 

Super Bowl LIII
L.A. Chargers over New Orleans

 

What Would Happen If…

There is a chance that both the Los Angeles Rams and the Los Angeles Chargers could host their conference championship games.  There has always been a chance that the New York Jets and New York Giants could one year host their conference championship games.  In the future, once they occupy the same new colossus mega stadium, the Rams and Chargers could host their conference championship games in the same year.

Conference Championship Games are always on Sundays.  What that means, is there is maybe a 5% chance that the Rams and Chargers could end up hosting on this day.  While it would be okay having both networks in the City of Angels on the same day for separate games, once these teams share a home field (and if the world ever comes to an end and the Jets and Giants host conference championship games), it will not be possible to have doubleheaders on the same field on the same day.

Can you imagine the logistical nightmare it would cause to have the AFC Championship Game at 10 AM Pacific Time, followed by the NFC Championship at 1:30 PM Pacific Time on the same field?  First of all, it would be impossible.  Everybody in the stands would have to be escorted out of the stadium, before ticket holders for the second game could enter.  There would be about 15 to 20 minutes max for this to happen.  Like I said, this is impossible.

Next, the field itself would have to be transformed with new logos, as well as having any field damage repaired.  In the case of a game in East Rutherford, NJ, what if the weather conditions were 35 degrees with rain?  After 60 minutes of action, the next game would inherit very sloppy field conditions.  I did say impossible.

Now, what if the first game ended regulation with the game tied, and this game became a repeat of the 1971 Miami-Kansas City game at the old Municipal Stadium up on the hill in Kansas City.   What if the first game didn’t end until 2:30 PM Pacific Time?  The second game network would have to fill over an hour of time waiting for a game to end, when 99.9% of the football watching public would be tuned to the other game.  Once again, it is impossible.

I haven’t even mentioned that the teams in the second game need time to warm up on the field.  15 to 20 minutes is not enough.  They need at least an hour.  If you have to make a decision a week before to change the start times of the games, the network brass at CBS and Fox get very upset.  They cannot just make impromptu changes to their schedule a week in advance.  Only very important breaking news makes it okay to alter a TV schedule one week in advance.  The networks would say “impossible.”

However impossible it is, there is a chance that it could happen.  So what would happen if it did?  Yes, there is a contingency plan in place to cover this possibility.  If the same stadium is to host both conference championship games, one will be moved to Monday Night.  Yep, there could be a conference championship on Monday Night Football, but it would not be the regular MNF crew or network.  If it was the AFC game, it would be on CBS, and if it was the NFC game, it would be on Fox.

You might ask, has a network other than ABC or ESPN ever televised a Monday Night game?  The answer is “yes.”

It is a misnomer to believe that Monday Night Football on ABC in 1970 was the first time that NFL games were played and televised on Monday night.  Before there was MNF featuring Howard Cosell, CBS televised a handful of NFL games on Monday night during the 1960’s.  The games started at 9:30 PM Eastern Time, but because games concluded in 2 1/2 hours in those days, they were finished at Midnight.  One of the best games in this group was a 1968 game between an unbeaten Dallas team and a Green Bay Packer team coached by Phil Bengston, who was not having a rough time replacing Vince Lombardi, as the Packers were 2-3-1, but still in the race in the weak NFL Central Division.

Dallas led 10-0, and Green Bay looked more like an expansion team in the opening quarter plus.   Then, the great Bart Starr took the aging Packers on his shoulder and guided them back like it was 1966 again.  Starr threw three touchdown passes in the next quarter plus, and Green Bay took a 21-10 lead.  Starr threw another TD pass in the fourth quarter, and the Packers once again owned the Cowboys with a 28-17 win.

The American Football League also played a couple of Monday Night games in the 1960s, televised on NBC.  One notable game involved Broadway Joe Namath and the New York Jets playing host to the Houston Oilers in a game that would put the winner in first place in the AFL East at the midway point of the season.  Namath was victimized with a pick six by Zeke Moore early in the game, and he was somewhat of a disappointment that night with additional interceptions, but he also completed multiple long bomb passes to speedster Don Maynard, and the Jets pulled out the victory thanks to Jim Turner kicking four field goals, a couple from near midfield (goalposts were on the goalline then and not on the end line like today).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

December 10, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 15: December 13-17, 2018

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:07 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Kansas City L.A. Chargers 6.3 5.8 5.7 54
N.Y. Jets Houston -4.7 -5.2 -5.7 48
Denver Cleveland 6.0 5.7 5.2 44.5
Chicago Green Bay 7.8 7.5 8.9 47.5
Minnesota Miami 9.5 9.7 9.1 43.5
Buffalo Detroit -4.2 -4.2 -4.1 42
Baltimore Tampa Bay 10.5 10.9 10.1 46.5
Atlanta Arizona 7.7 7.9 7.6 43.5
Cincinnati Oakland 5.2 5.2 4.9 45
N.Y. Giants Tennessee 4.2 4.3 4.9 43
Jacksonville Washington 6.2 6.3 6.0 41.5
Indianapolis Dallas 2.4 1.5 3.0 45.5
San Francisco Seattle -7.1 -7.4 -8.3 44.5
Pittsburgh New England 4.0 3.8 3.7 47.5
L.A. Rams Philadelphia 9.5 9.8 9.7 51
Carolina New Orleans -9.9 -10.5 -10.4 51.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 105.6 105.9 105.8 105.8 23 9-4
Miami 95.3 95.1 95.3 95.2 23 7-6
N. Y. Jets 95.0 94.5 94.6 94.7 24 4-9
Buffalo 92.5 92.4 92.2 92.3 18 4-9
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 106.6 106.7 106.5 106.6 24.5 7-5-1
Baltimore 103.5 103.9 103.7 103.7 21 7-6
Cleveland 97.2 97.5 98.0 97.6 24.5 5-7-1
Cincinnati 94.6 94.7 94.2 94.5 23.5 5-8
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Houston 102.2 102.3 102.8 102.4 24 9-4
Indianapolis 101.2 100.4 101.4 101.0 25.5 7-6
Tennessee 97.4 97.4 97.1 97.3 20 7-6
Jacksonville 97.5 97.1 97.1 97.2 19 4-9
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 107.6 107.8 107.5 107.6 30 11-2
LA Chargers 104.2 105.0 104.8 104.7 24 10-3
Denver 100.3 100.2 100.2 100.2 20 6-7
Oakland 91.8 92.0 91.9 91.9 21.5 3-10
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Dallas 101.8 101.8 101.4 101.7 20 8-5
Philadelphia 100.8 100.9 100.7 100.8 22.5 6-7
N.Y. Giants 98.6 98.7 99.0 98.8 23 5-8
Washington 93.9 93.2 93.6 93.6 22.5 6-7
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Chicago 105.0 105.2 106.0 105.4 23 9-4
Minnesota 101.8 101.7 101.4 101.6 20.5 6-6-1
Green Bay 99.8 100.2 99.6 99.8 24.5 5-7-1
Detroit 99.2 99.1 98.8 99.0 24 5-8
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 112.8 112.9 113.1 112.9 27 11-2
Carolina 100.4 99.9 100.1 100.1 24.5 6-7
Atlanta 98.5 98.2 97.9 98.2 25.5 4-9
Tampa Bay 95.9 96.0 96.6 96.2 25.5 5-8
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 107.4 107.7 107.4 107.5 28.5 11-2
Seattle 104.8 105.0 105.6 105.1 22.5 8-5
San Francisco 94.7 94.6 94.3 94.5 22 3-10
Arizona 93.8 93.3 93.3 93.5 18 2-11

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Kansas City
2 Houston
3 New England
4 Pittsburgh
5 L.A. Chargers
6 Miami

 

NFC Seeding
1 New Orleans
2 L.A. Rams
3 Chicago
4 Dallas
5 Seattle
6 Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round
New England over Miami
L.A. Chargers over Pittsburgh
Chicago over Minnesota
Dallas over Seattle

 

Divisional Round
Kansas City over L.A. Chargers
Houston over New England
New Orleans over Dallas
L.A. Rams over Chicago

 

Conference Championship
Kansas City over Houston
L.A. Rams over New Orleans

 

Super Bowl 53
Kansas City over L.A. Rams

 

 

 

 

 

 

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