The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 15, 2020

PiRate Picks for October 15-19, 2020

That Virus Changes Everything–Injuries Not So Much!

We had a nice variety of games ready to feature here this week, but then that little tiny virus cancelled two of the games we were ready to play and greatly altered a third, making it unplayable. You can obviously determine the three college games we refer to in the above sentence.

A crucial injury in the NFL might have made you think we would avoid a certain team like the plague, yet we are not only making a selection involving said team, we are making a selection in that team’s favor.

You will also notice that we are playing opposite sides of the same college game this week, going with the underdog against a spread that our ratings indicate is too high, while picking the favorite to win in a money line parlay. It is not a mistake; this was a deliberate choice to hopefully hit an unorthodox middle.

Before you get all gung ho about these selections, remember that we do this only for mathematical (nerdy) fun. We never actually wager real money on these selections, and we highly advise you to refrain from using these selections as advice. This statement is repeated every week, but like people that still text while driving, a group of you will immediately place wagers on these selections to try to receive the same parlay odds.

Before revealing today’s selections, let’s do a little review of last week’s selections and how we are performing year to date with our imaginary bank roll that never runs out of fresh imaginary $100 bills.

Last week, we issued 12 selections and won half of them. It was a profitable week, because we were 3-0 on money line parlays with payouts of +295, +141, and +166.60. At $100 imaginary per wager, we invested $1,200 in nonexistent currency and received $1,470.01 for a proftiable return on investment of 22.5%.

For the year, we are now up 7.94% in the profit column. But, this by no means indicates that we are going to stay in the black for the remainder of the season.

Additionally, the way our selections won last week was 180° different from the way we won in prior weeks. It was straight wagering that was unusually accurate heading into last week’s selections, while the exotic wagers were in the toilet.

Last week, the straight wagers lost a little, while the exotics won big. So, we cannot guess which style of wagers will do better in any one week. Thus, if you choose to pick just one or two of our selections, you are really taking a double gamble with your investment.

Just as this edition was about to publish, word has come out on the Twitterverse that the Atlanta Falcons have just reported a rash of new positives, and their facilities have been closed. We have a selection involving the Falcons, so by the time you see this, the Vegas lines may have changed.

And, we offer our condolences to the family of former NFL player Fred Dean, who passed away as a result of the virus. Let’s hope the biggest loser is the virus, as it is beaten like Georgia Tech over Cumberland.

Here are our selections for this week. Stay well!

Date:10/15-10/19
College Wagers
SelectionOpponentLine
1. HoustonBYU+5.5
2. KentuckyTennessee+6
3. Florida Intl.CharlotteCancelled


4. Money Line +143.55
Must WinOpponentOdds
SMUTulane
TennesseeKentucky+143.55
Notre DameLouisville


5. Money Line +152.83
Must WinOpponentOdds
Texas A&MMiss. St.
Middle Tenn.North Texas+152.83
N. CarolinaFlorida St.


NFL Wagers
SelectionOpponentLine
6. DenverNew England+10
7. DallasArizona+2


8. 10-point Teaser Parlay
TeamTeamOdds
N.Y. GiantsWashingtonO32.5
PhiladelphiaBaltimoreO37.5
MiamiN.Y. JetsO37


9. Money Line Parlay +142.97
Must WinOpponentOdds
MinnesotaAtlanta
PittsburghCleveland+142.97


10. Money Line Parlay +110.23
Must WinOpponentOdds
BaltimorePhiladelphia
IndianapolisCincinnati+110.23
MiamiN.Y. Jets

September 28, 2020

PiRate Ratings–NFL Football For Week 4: October 1-4, 2020

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:56 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
N.Y. JetsDenver-4.4-3.2-5.2
ChicagoIndianapolis-1.0-1.5-0.8
CincinnatiJacksonville2.22.82.2
DallasCleveland4.95.24.6
DetroitNew Orleans-8.6-8.0-8.5
TennesseePittsburgh-0.2-0.70.2
MiamiSeattle-6.2-5.5-6.5
Tampa BayLA Chargers8.88.88.6
WashingtonBaltimore-13.1-13.0-14.0
CarolinaArizona-1.4-1.5-1.6
HoustonMinnesota2.52.02.4
LA RamsN.Y. Giants12.011.713.5
Kansas CityNew England9.510.39.7
Las VegasBuffalo-0.7-1.4-0.9
San FranciscoPhiladelphia13.613.214.7
Green BayAtlanta7.99.08.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
N.Y. JetsDenver34.5
ChicagoIndianapolis38.5
CincinnatiJacksonville43.5
DallasCleveland49
DetroitNew Orleans53
TennesseePittsburgh41.5
MiamiSeattle55
Tampa BayLA Chargers50.5
WashingtonBaltimore47
CarolinaArizona55
HoustonMinnesota48.5
LA RamsN.Y. Giants50
Kansas CityNew England45
Las VegasBuffalo41.5
San FranciscoPhiladelphia48
Green BayAtlanta51.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
New England102.0101.8102.2102.020.52-1
Buffalo101.4102.3101.5101.817.53-0
Miami95.997.295.896.3261-2
N. Y. Jets91.392.390.391.3190-3

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore109.2109.1109.7109.325.52-1
Pittsburgh102.2102.8102.3102.4183-0
Cleveland97.997.898.298.023.52-1
Cincinnati94.695.094.694.7230-2-1

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Indianapolis103.1103.1103.1103.121.52-1
Tennessee100.0100.1100.5100.223.53-0
Houston100.199.399.799.7240-3
Jacksonville93.893.793.993.820.51-2

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City109.5110.1109.9109.824.53-0
Las Vegas98.398.498.198.3242-1
LA Chargers97.697.798.297.819.51-2
Denver97.797.597.597.615.50-3

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas100.8101.0100.8100.925.51-2
Philadelphia96.396.095.595.923.00-2-1
Washington94.694.694.294.521.51-2
N.Y. Giants92.893.292.292.823.50-3

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay105.3105.3105.7105.4243-0
Chicago100.6100.1100.8100.5173-0
Minnesota99.198.898.998.924.50-3
Detroit95.195.295.095.125.51-2

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
New Orleans105.7105.2105.5105.527.51-2
Tampa Bay104.0103.9104.2104.1312-1
Atlanta99.598.399.199.027.50-3
Carolina96.796.096.496.426.51-2

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
San Francisco107.4106.7107.6107.3252-1
Seattle104.6105.1104.8104.9293-0
LA Rams102.4102.4103.2102.726.52-1
Arizona100.6100.0100.6100.428.52-1

September 24, 2020

PiRate Picks for September 24-28

Even a Broken Clock Is Right Twice a Day

Last Week’s picks turned a 33% profit winning 10 of 15 selections including the nice NFL 3-team Money Line Parlay that returned $227.46 on a $100 ticket. Remember this: our picks are mostly mathematical based on numbers and historic data, and we highly advise you to consider them mathematics experiments and not investment advice. Yes, we do know that there are a handful of Sharps in Nevada and offshore that, for some totally crazy reason, anxiously wait for our selections to publish on Thursday morning. We don’t have a clue how you are using these picks. We postulated that you simply played the opposite of our selections, so if that is the case—sorry boys and girls for accidentally being accurate last week!

This week’s picks were considerably more difficult to isolate. So many of our own power ratings and the lines were too close for comfort. We like to get a few extra points in our direction to overcome the vig, and there just weren’t many options this week. Our college strength in year’s past has been opening games and opening conference games, so we tried to take advantage of that somewhat.

Our NFL paradigm is to cross certain totals in playing teasers, as we really like the lower standard deviation of NFL totals in recent years. As for NFL Money Line Parlays, we tried to find extra data to corroborate our pointspread differentials. We hope we found some angles this week, but remember, this weekly feature is totally for amusement purposed only. We do not ever wager money on the outcomes of sporting events. If you do, please do not rely on this data to lose your mortgage payment.

Date:9/24-9/28
College Straight Wagers
SelectionOpponentLine
1. SyracuseGeorgia Tech+8.5
2. Kansas St.Oklahoma+28
3. East CarolinaUCF+27.5
4. UL MonroeUTEP-9.5
5. ArkansasGeorgia+26
6. Florida St.Miami (Fla.)+11
7. Virginia TechNC St.-6.5


College Money Line Parlays
8. 3 teams @ +100.77
Must WinOpponentPayout Odds
UTSAMiddle Tenn
BYUTroy+100.77
FloridaOle Miss

9. 3 Teams @ +104
Must WinOpponentPayout Odds
UABS. Alabama
UL-MonroeUTEP+104
LSUMississippi St.



NFL 6-point Teaser Parlays
10. NFL 6-point Teaser Parlay @ -110
TeamTeamTotal
MinnesotaTennesseeU55
AtlantaChicagoO41

11. NFL 6-point Teaser Parlay @ -110
TeamTeamTotal
BuffaloLA RamsU53
LA ChargersCarolinaO37.5

12. NFL 6-point Teaser Parlay @ -110
TeamTeamTotal
IndianapolisN.Y. JetU50
DenverTampa BayO37



NFL Money Line Parlays
13. NFL Money Line Parlay @ +126.60
Must WinOpponentPayout Odds
JacksonvilleMiami
New EnglandLas Vegas+126.60

14. NFL Money Line Parlay @ +107.56
Must WinOpponentPayout Odds
ArizonaDetroit
SeattleDallas+107.56

September 10, 2020

PiRate Picks for September 10-14

Today marks the official beginning of our PiRate Ratings Just for Fun Selections against the spreads. For those of you new to this feature, we do not claim expertise in any of our pretend selections, and all selections are made with an imaginary bankroll of limitless wads of $100 bills.

In past years, our picks have returned imaginary profits with unreal returns on investment in excess of 50%. In other years, including last year, we have suffered unreal losses. Because no real money is transacted, we can be a little liberal with our numbers of selections, because winning or losing 5 games are no different than winning or losing 1 or 0 games when the money doesn’t really exist. No jokes about it being the same as reality.

Our two favorite types of plays are teasers and money line parlays. At the start of this crazy wagering season, we don’t have a lot of faith in money line parlays. We have no inside access to know how many “Navy” situations there are, where the Midshipmen obviously were not ready to play against BYU Monday night, and their head coach took the blame for not having any live hitting drills all through preseason practice.

The NFL may be the more logical way to go at the start of the season, and with the schedules so inconsistent in college football, the teams may prepare for the wrong opponent thanks to that nasty little virus. The NFL schedules look to be more consistent for now.

Without further adieu, here are our picks for College Week 2 and NFL Week 1.

Date:9/10-914
7-point Teaser+140
SelectionOpponentLine
Texas StateUTSA-2.5
TulaneSouth Alabama-1.5
SyracuseNorth Carolina+30

6-point Teaser-110
SelectionOpponentLine
Green BayMinnesota+8.5
New EnglandMiami-0.5

6-point Teaser-110
SelectionOpponentLine
AtlantaSeattle+8
IndianapolisJacksonville-2

6-point Teaser-110
SelectionOpponentLine
BaltimoreCleveland-2
BuffaloNY Jets-0.5

6-point Teaser-110
SelectionOpponentLine
San FranciscoArizona-1
PittsburghNY GiantsPk

Remember: The PiRates never wager real money on these picks, and we highly advise you to refrain as well. If you wager real money, please rely on a reliable service. You pay nothing for these picks, and they are still overpriced.

September 7, 2020

PiRate Ratings–NFL Week 1

Margins

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
Kansas CityHouston7.99.78.0
AtlantaSeattle0.4-1.00.8
BaltimoreCleveland11.311.111.5
BuffaloN.Y. Jets8.58.08.7
CarolinaLas Vegas1.70.61.9
DetroitChicago-2.7-1.6-3.1
JacksonvilleIndianapolis-4.6-4.8-4.5
MinnesotaGreen Bay1.92.22.6
New EnglandMiami10.08.310.7
WashingtonPhiladelphia-5.0-4.8-4.8
CincinnatiLA Chargers-0.7-0.1-1.1
New OrleansTampa Bay8.17.37.8
San FranciscoArizona9.09.29.2
LA RamsDallas2.01.22.5
N.Y. GiantsPittsburgh-4.9-5.0-5.2
DenverTennessee1.71.61.3

Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
Kansas CityHouston47.0
AtlantaSeattle51.0
BaltimoreCleveland47.5
BuffaloN.Y. Jets33.0
CarolinaLas Vegas48.5
DetroitChicago39.5
JacksonvilleIndianapolis40.0
MinnesotaGreen Bay43.0
New EnglandMiami45.0
WashingtonPhiladelphia44.0
CincinnatiLA Chargers43.0
New OrleansTampa Bay57.5
San FranciscoArizona55.0
LA RamsDallas49.5
N.Y. GiantsPittsburgh42.0
DenverTennessee38.0

December 31, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For December 31-January 5, 2019

Happy New Year to all our readers

 

This should be the year where we all see clearly.  2020 isn’t 2010 or 2005 when we could all be quite far-sighted, but after this year, we all become nearsighted.  We will be blind in another 70 years!

If that looks like nonsense to you, then you should consider that what follows makes the above look like rocket science.

Once again, we are issuing picks against the spread as entertainment purposes only.  These are not our more scientific Davey19 picks that enjoyed an experimental winning season.  So, please do not wager real money based on what you see below.

Because games are now down to a minimum, we do not have any great teaser or money line parlays through Sunday’s playoff games.  We are going with straight margin selections.  Enjoy, but in order to enjoy, you should keep your wallet in your pockets.

 

 

College Bowl Games

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Virginia Tech

Kentucky

2.5

Va. Tech

Arizona St.

Florida St.

4

Florida St.

Wyoming

Georgia St.

7.5

Georgia St.

Utah

Texas

7.5

Texas

Wisconsin

Oregon

3

Oregon

Tennessee

Indiana

2

Tennessee

 

NFL Wildcard Playoffs

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Houston

Buffalo

3

Buffalo

New England

Tennessee

4.5

New England

Seattle

Philadelphia

2.5

Philadelphia

December 23, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 17: December 29, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

 

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Baltimore

Pittsburgh

13.8

13.6

14.0

Buffalo

N.Y. Jets

8.3

8.6

9.4

Carolina

New Orleans

-14.7

-13.4

-13.7

Cincinnati

Cleveland

-4.1

-4.5

-4.3

Dallas

Washington

16.0

15.4

15.5

Detroit

Green Bay

-7.2

-8.7

-9.2

Houston

Tennessee

1.4

1.7

1.7

Jacksonville

Indianapolis

-7.8

-8.5

-8.0

Kansas City

LA Chargers

9.2

10.2

10.9

Minnesota

Chicago

6.7

7.8

8.0

New England

Miami

21.7

22.0

21.6

N. Y. Giants

Philadelphia

-7.2

-5.7

-5.0

Tampa Bay

Atlanta

1.5

2.5

2.9

Denver

Oakland

7.1

7.6

7.3

LA Rams

Arizona

9.4

8.3

8.1

Seattle

San Francisco

-3.0

-3.9

-3.9

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

 

Home

Visitor

Total

Baltimore

Pittsburgh

44

Buffalo

N.Y. Jets

38

Carolina

New Orleans

53

Cincinnati

Cleveland

47.5

Dallas

Washington

41.5

Detroit

Green Bay

47.5

Houston

Tennessee

45

Jacksonville

Indianapolis

41

Kansas City

LA Chargers

51.5

Minnesota

Chicago

38.5

New England

Miami

48

N. Y. Giants

Philadelphia

49

Tampa Bay

Atlanta

55.5

Denver

Oakland

44.5

LA Rams

Arizona

51

Seattle

San Francisco

49.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New England

108.0

108.7

108.2

108.3

19.5

12-3

Buffalo

102.0

103.0

103.0

102.7

17

10-5

N. Y. Jets

94.7

95.4

94.6

94.9

21

6-9

Miami

89.4

89.7

89.6

89.6

28.5

4-11

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Baltimore

111.7

111.9

112.7

112.1

25

13-2

Pittsburgh

98.9

99.4

99.7

99.3

19

8-7

Cleveland

97.8

97.9

97.8

97.8

24

6-9

Cincinnati

92.7

92.4

92.5

92.5

23.5

1-14

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Houston

102.2

102.7

102.7

102.6

23.5

10-5

Tennessee

101.8

102.0

102.0

101.9

21.5

8-7

Indianapolis

100.1

100.9

100.3

100.4

23

7-8

Jacksonville

91.3

91.4

91.3

91.3

18

5-10

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Kansas City

107.0

107.7

107.7

107.5

29.5

11-4

LA Chargers

100.4

100.0

99.3

99.9

22

5-10

Denver

99.0

99.3

99.1

99.1

19

6-9

Oakland

92.8

92.7

92.8

92.8

25.5

7-8

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Dallas

104.2

104.3

103.9

104.1

22

7-8

Philadelphia

101.9

100.7

100.5

101.0

23.5

8-7

N.Y. Giants

93.7

94.0

94.4

94.0

25.5

4-11

Washington

91.3

91.9

91.4

91.5

19.5

3-12

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Minnesota

106.8

105.7

105.8

106.1

21.5

10-5

Green Bay

103.8

103.8

104.2

103.9

24

12-3

Chicago

101.1

98.9

98.8

99.6

17

7-8

Detroit

95.0

93.6

93.5

94.1

23.5

3-11-1

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New Orleans

108.7

107.2

107.7

107.9

27

12-3

Tampa Bay

101.1

102.3

102.6

102.0

29.5

7-8

Atlanta

100.6

100.8

100.7

100.7

26

6-9

Carolina

93.0

92.8

93.0

92.9

26

5-10

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

San Francisco

107.2

107.9

108.1

107.7

26

12-3

LA Rams

104.5

103.6

104.0

104.0

26.5

8-7

Seattle

101.2

101.0

101.2

101.1

23.5

11-4

Arizona

96.1

96.3

96.9

96.4

24.5

5-9-1

 

 

 

Week 17 Playoff Scenarios

 

NFC

If San Francisco, New Orleans, and Green Bay all win, San Francisco is  the #1 seed, Green Bay the #2 seed, and New Orleans the #3 seed.

If Seattle beats San Francisco, then Green Bay will get #1 seed with win over Detroit.

If Seattle beats San Francisco, and Detroit beats Green Bay, then New Orleans gets #1 seed with a win over Carolina.

If Seatlle beats San Francisco, and Green Bay and New Orleans lose, Seattle gets the #1 seed.

Philadelphia wins the NFC East with a win over the Giants or a Dallas loss to Washington. Any ties in the standings would go to Dallas.

Minnesota is #6 seed regardless of week 17 results.

 

AFC

Houston has clinched the #1 seed in the AFC

New England clinches the #2 seed with a win over Miami or a Kansas City loss to the Chargers.

Houston can pass Kansas City for the #3 seed with a win over Tennessee and a loss by Kansas City.

Buffalo is the #5 seed regardless of week 17 results.

Tennessee wins the #6 seed if they beat Houston, or with a loss with Pittsburgh losing to Baltimore while both Oakland and Indianapolis do not win.

Pittsburgh wins the #6 seed only if they win and the Titans lose.

Oakland can clinch the #6 seed with a win over Denver, plus losses by Tennessee and Pittsburgh and Indianapolis beating Jacksonville.

 

PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

 

What are the chances that the Oakland Raiders, in their last season playing in Oakland, could sneak into the NFL Playoffs?  It ranges from + or – 10-15% depending on which advanced metric expert you listen to.  We’re sabermetric experts that do not perform these type of metrics on pro football.

The way we look at things, Baltimore has nothing to gain this week against Pittsburgh in their season finale.  Their key players should play little or not at all.  Can the Steelers with poor quarterback play rise up and beat the Ravens’ reserves if they couldn’t beat the Jets last week?

Tennessee has now dropped two games in a row to playoff teams in Houston and New Orleans, both at home.  Houston may have a chance to move up to a #3 seed if Kansas City is upset earlier in the day.  

Oakland closes out regular season play at Denver, where the Broncos have nothing to play for in Week 17.

Indianapolis is playing solely to get to 8-8, while Jacksonville has nothing to play for in Week 17.

We think Oakland’s chances to sneak in as the final playoff team is considerably better than 15%.  In fact, just because it would make such a great story, we are going to select the Raiders as our 6th seed to set up a probably Oakland finale against their most hated rivals.

 

AFC Seeding

1

Baltimore

2

New England

3

Kansas City

4

Houston

5

Buffalo

6

Oakland

 

 

NFC Seeding

1

Green Bay

2

New Orleans

3

Seattle

4

Philadelphia

5

San Francisco

6

Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round

Kansas City over Oakland

Buffalo over Houston

Minnesota over Seattle

San Francisco over Philadelphia

 

 

Divisional Round

Buffalo over Baltimore

Kansas City over New England

Green Bay over Minnesota

New Orleans over San Francisco

 

 

Conference Championship

Kansas City over Buffalo

New Orleans over Green Bay

 

 

Super Bowl 54

New Orleans over Kansas City

 

 

December 16, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 16: December 21-23, 2019

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:33 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Tampa Bay

Houston

2.2

3.4

4.1

New England

Buffalo

9.2

8.9

8.4

San Francisco

LA Rams

5.9

7.7

7.7

Atlanta

Jacksonville

11.8

11.9

11.9

Tennessee

New Orleans

-4.0

-1.9

-2.4

Washington

N. Y. Giants

0.7

1.2

0.5

N. Y. Jets

Pittsburgh

-2.7

-2.7

-4.2

Miami

Cincinnati

-1.2

-0.8

-1.2

Indianapolis

Carolina

5.7

6.7

5.9

Cleveland

Baltimore

-10.8

-10.6

-11.5

LA Chargers

Oakland

12.7

12.7

12.1

Denver

Detroit

6.7

8.5

8.2

Seattle

Arizona

12.1

11.6

11.3

Philadelphia

Dallas

-0.6

-2.2

-2.3

Chicago

Kansas City

0.1

-2.9

-2.8

Minnesota

Green Bay

9.6

8.5

8.4

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

Home

Visitor

Total

Tampa Bay

Houston

54

New England

Buffalo

36.5

San Francisco

LA Rams

51.5

Atlanta

Jacksonville

44

Tennessee

New Orleans

46.5

Washington

N. Y. Giants

43

N. Y. Jets

Pittsburgh

41

Miami

Cincinnati

50

Indianapolis

Carolina

49

Cleveland

Baltimore

49

LA Chargers

Oakland

47.5

Denver

Detroit

42.5

Seattle

Arizona

49

Philadelphia

Dallas

47.5

Chicago

Kansas City

47.5

Minnesota

Green Bay

46.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New England

108.1

108.8

108.3

108.4

19.5

11-3

Buffalo

101.9

102.9

102.9

102.6

17

10-4

N. Y. Jets

94.2

94.8

93.8

94.3

21.5

5-9

Miami

89.2

89.4

89.2

89.3

27.5

3-11

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Baltimore

111.6

111.7

112.5

112.0

25

12-2

Pittsburgh

99.4

100.0

100.5

99.9

19.5

8-6

Cleveland

97.9

98.1

98.0

98.0

24

6-8

Cincinnati

92.9

92.7

92.9

92.8

22.5

1-13

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Tennessee

102.0

102.4

102.4

102.3

20.5

8-6

Houston

102.0

102.3

102.1

102.2

24

9-5

Indianapolis

97.9

98.7

98.1

98.2

23

6-8

Jacksonville

91.3

91.4

91.3

91.3

18

5-9

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Kansas City

105.2

106.0

105.9

105.7

30

10-4

LA Chargers

102.0

101.7

101.1

101.6

22

5-9

Denver

98.9

99.2

98.9

99.0

19

5-9

Oakland

91.2

91.0

91.0

91.1

25.5

6-8

 

 

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Dallas

104.8

105.1

104.8

104.9

23

7-7

Philadelphia

101.3

99.9

99.6

100.2

24.5

7-7

N.Y. Giants

93.4

93.6

93.9

93.6

24.5

3-11

Washington

91.6

92.3

91.9

91.9

18.5

3-11

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Minnesota

108.6

107.5

107.7

108.0

22

10-4

Green Bay

102.0

102.0

102.3

102.1

24.5

11-3

Chicago

102.9

100.6

100.6

101.4

17.5

7-7

Detroit

95.1

93.7

93.7

94.2

23.5

3-10-1

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New Orleans

108.5

106.8

107.3

107.5

26

11-3

Tampa Bay

101.3

102.7

103.2

102.4

30

7-7

Atlanta

100.6

100.8

100.7

100.7

26

5-9

Carolina

95.2

95.0

95.2

95.1

26

5-9

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

San Francisco

107.3

108.1

108.4

107.9

25.5

11-3

LA Rams

104.4

103.4

103.7

103.8

26

8-6

Seattle

103.2

103.0

103.2

103.1

24

11-3

Arizona

94.1

94.3

94.9

94.4

25

4-9-1

 

Playoff Projections

 

AFC Seeding

1

Baltimore

2

New England

3

Kansas City

4

Houston

5

Buffalo

6

Pittsburgh

NFC Seeding

1

New Orleans

2

Seattle

3

Green Bay

4

Philadelphia

5

San Francisco

6

Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round

Kansas City over Pittsburgh

Buffalo over Houston

Green Bay over Minnesota

San Francisco over Philadelphia

 

 

Divisional Round

Baltimore over Buffalo

New England over Kansas City

New Orleans over San Francisco

Seattle over Green Bay

 

 

Conference Championship

Baltimore over New England

Seattle over New Orleans

 

 

Super Bowl 54

Seattle over Baltimore

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

December 12, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For December 12-16, 2019

Davey19 Concludes College Football Regular Season With Second Perfect Slate In 3 Weeks!

Our experimental Davey19 forecast model went 3-0 last week during Conference Championship Week, correctly picking against the spread the AAC, Big 12, and Sun Belt Conference Championship Games.  This led to a final four weeks record of 22-8-1 or 73.3% against the spread, which is smashingly excellent.  It left the Davey19 system well in the black for the season.

We discovered quite early in the year that this system apparently works best on conference games in college football.  It was so-so with non-conference football and totally useless with NFL games.  So, because of that, Davey19 is being shut down for the college bowl season and the remainder of the NFL season.  We will continue to experiment with this system next year when the college teams play conference games, and then if we have another successful year, especially wiping up in November as the sample size increases, we may remove the “experimental” tag from the system name.

 

What you will get for the rest of the season are the regular PiRate Ratings selections, or in other words, the most useless but entertaining picks against the spread and the money line.  We are throwing caution to the wind coming up with picks so out in left field, that they are on top of the roof across the street from old Griffith Stadium in Washington.  For those of you under the age of 85 or not an architectural fan of old demolished baseball parks, it was over 400 feet to left field at Washington’s Griffith Stadium for most of its existence, until players like Harmon Killebrew, Roy Sievers, and Jim Lemon wore Washington Senators jerseys.  Therefore, the roof on top of the building over the left field wall was only reachable by visiting players like Jimmy Foxx and, of course, Mickey Mantle.

FYI: Mantle’s  565 foot blast over the bleachers at Griffith was hit to left-center and landed on Oakdale Street three houses down from the ballpark.  The Yankees’ radio announcer said something to the effect that somebody should get out a tape measure to see how far the blast carried.  Thus, the term “Tape Measure Home Run” was coined.  Additionally, the ball might have traveled several feet more had it not grazed the edge of the football scoreboard.  I would cite the source for this, but this is from aged memory without actually looking it up.

Okay, now that we’ve diverted your attention away from our crazy, goofy, insane, but free picks, here is how we are progressing the rest of the way.  You will receive our expertly “It seemed like a good idea at the time” selections.  Don’t you dare use them to wager real money on games unless you also like to touch live electricity while swimming in a pool.  None of the PiRates have ever wagered a dollar on any of the selections that appear on this site.  While we do know that there are pros, even two Sharps, that use our site for information, they are using our regular weekly ratings and have different algorithms and rules to apply to them to make profits.  These different Sharps are using data completely different from each other, and from one of them (actually somebody in the public eye as a pro), this person plugged numbers into a computer for weeks before discovering this anomaly that led to about 65.2% success against the spread over the last 6 years.  We take great pain to never issue these picks on this site for two reasons.  First, this person told us this in confidence and revealing it publicly means the odds might change and ruin this person’s very hard work.  Second, the minute we recommend these picks, luck will turn the other way and make them stop working.

Therefore, we seldom if ever make straight selections against the spread or the totals that might second what the successful system also chooses.  We have fun devising teaser and money line parlays, looking for the big odds payout.  Davey19 is totally different, as it is a mechanical system for picking conference games in college with occasional non-conference games selected.  While there have been times where Davey19 and the Sharp have selected the same games, we have tried to censor those games from Davey19 when there are enough other games the system chooses.  For instance, one week Davey19 flagged 10 games, but we only issued 7, because the other three were games that the Sharp also keyed.

So, here are our strictly for fun parlays for week 15 of the NFL system.  There have been some highly successful weeks with these picks, but there have been even more losing weeks, so once again, please look at these just for fun and do not wager these selections based on reading them here.

 

10-Point Teasers @ 10-12

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Denver

Kansas City

0.5

Kansas City

Carolina

Seattle

4

Seattle

Jacksonville

Oakland

3.5

Oakland

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Arizona

Cleveland

7.5

Cleveland

Dallas

LA Rams

8.5

LA Rams

Indianapolis

New Orleans

1.5

New Orleans

 

 

13-Point Teasers @ 10-13

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Baltimore

N.Y. Jets

29.5

N.Y. Jets

Green Bay

Chicago

17.5

Chicago

Chicago

Green Bay

8.5

Green Bay

Minnesota

LA Chargers

15.5

LA Chargers

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

LA Chargers

Minnesota

10.5

Minnesota

San Francisco

Atlanta

24

Atlanta

Pittsburgh

Buffalo

15

Buffalo

Buffalo

Pittsburgh

11

Pittsburgh

 

7-Point Teaser @ 10-13

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

New England

Cincinnati

2

New England

Detroit

Tampa Bay

3.5

Tampa Bay

 

 

Money Line Parlays

#1–1 Game at +435

In other words, this is a major upset pick that we just have a feeling about due to the favorite having played three tough games in a row and an underdog that can score points and plays better on the road than at home.

Winner

Loser

Atlanta

San Francisco

 

#2–2 Games at +156

Winner

Loser

Tennessee

Houston

Philadelphia

Washington

 

#3–2 Games at +198

Winner

Loser

Cleveland

Arizona

Minnesota

LA Chargers

 

#4–3 Games at +224

Winner

Loser

Kansas City

Denver

New England

Cincinnati

Buffalo

Pittsburgh

 

#5–3 Games at +241

Winner

Loser

Green Bay

Chicago

LA Rams

Dallas

New Orleans

Indianapolis

 

 

 

 

 

 

December 9, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 15: December 12-16, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Margins

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Baltimore

N. Y. Jets

19.3

18.9

20.6

Detroit

Tampa Bay

1.2

-1.8

-2.0

Washington

Philadelphia

-6.6

-4.1

-4.0

Green Bay

Chicago

1.0

3.5

3.6

Cincinnati

New England

-12.2

-12.8

-11.9

Tennessee

Houston

4.0

4.3

4.7

Carolina

Seattle

-5.0

-5.0

-5.0

Kansas City

Denver

7.8

8.0

8.0

N. Y. Giants

Miami

5.7

5.5

5.8

Buffalo

Pittsburgh

5.3

5.7

5.2

Oakland

Jacksonville

4.1

4.0

4.3

Arizona

Cleveland

-3.9

-4.1

-3.6

San Francisco

Atlanta

13.7

14.5

15.3

Dallas

LA Rams

-1.5

-0.2

-1.2

LA Chargers

Minnesota

0.1

1.3

0.4

New Orleans

Indianapolis

11.2

8.3

9.2

 

Totals

Home

Visitor

Total

Baltimore

N. Y. Jets

45.5

Detroit

Tampa Bay

53.5

Washington

Philadelphia

42

Green Bay

Chicago

42.5

Cincinnati

New England

42

Tennessee

Houston

44.5

Carolina

Seattle

50

Kansas City

Denver

50

N. Y. Giants

Miami

52

Buffalo

Pittsburgh

37.5

Oakland

Jacksonville

43.5

Arizona

Cleveland

47

San Francisco

Atlanta

51.5

Dallas

LA Rams

47

LA Chargers

Minnesota

44

New Orleans

Indianapolis

50

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New England

107.8

108.4

107.8

108.0

19.5

10-3

Buffalo

101.8

102.8

102.8

102.5

17.5

9-4

N. Y. Jets

94.5

95.1

94.1

94.6

21

5-8

Miami

89.7

90.0

89.9

89.9

27.5

3-10

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Baltimore

111.3

111.4

112.2

111.7

24.5

11-2

Pittsburgh

99.5

100.1

100.6

100.0

20

8-5

Cleveland

99.2

99.5

99.5

99.4

23

6-7

Cincinnati

93.2

93.1

93.4

93.2

22.5

1-12

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Tennessee

102.5

103.0

103.1

102.9

20.5

8-5

Houston

101.5

101.7

101.4

101.6

24

8-5

Indianapolis

99.1

100.1

99.6

99.6

23.5

6-7

Jacksonville

90.7

90.7

90.5

90.6

18

4-9

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Kansas City

104.4

105.1

104.9

104.8

30.5

9-4

LA Chargers

104.1

104.0

103.4

103.8

22

5-8

Denver

99.7

100.1

99.9

99.9

19.5

5-8

Oakland

91.8

91.7

91.8

91.8

25.5

6-7

 

 

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Dallas

102.6

102.9

102.4

102.6

22

6-7

Philadelphia

101.0

99.4

99.0

99.8

24

6-7

N.Y. Giants

92.9

93.0

93.2

93.0

24.5

2-11

Washington

91.9

92.8

92.5

92.4

18

3-10

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Minnesota

106.5

105.2

105.4

105.7

22

9-4

Green Bay

101.7

101.8

102.0

101.8

24.5

10-3

Chicago

103.2

100.8

100.9

101.6

18

7-6

Detroit

97.3

95.8

95.9

96.4

23.5

3-9-1

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New Orleans

107.3

105.4

105.8

106.2

26.5

10-3

Tampa Bay

99.1

100.6

101.0

100.2

30

6-7

Atlanta

98.6

98.7

98.4

98.5

26

4-9

Carolina

95.2

95.0

95.2

95.1

26

5-8

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

San Francisco

109.3

110.2

110.7

110.1

25.5

11-2

LA Rams

106.6

105.6

106.1

106.1

25

8-5

Seattle

103.2

103.0

103.2

103.1

24

10-3

Arizona

92.8

92.9

93.4

93.0

24

3-9-1

 

The NFL Playoff Scenarios

There are numerous Playoff scenarios that can still greatly affect the remaining teams in the Playoff hunt.  After the end of Week 15, the scenarios will be easier to describe, and of course after Week 16, it will be cut and dry.  For now, here are the basics–just who wins in each scenario without going into explanations about which tiebreaker causes it.

 

Division Championships

 

AFC

If Buffalo wins at New England, and the teams finish tied for first, New England is AFC East Champs.

If Pittsburgh wins out and Baltimore loses out to finish tied at 11-5, Pittsburgh wins the AFC North Division.

If Houston and Tennessee finished tied at 10-6 or 9-7, Houston wins the AFC South Division.

Should Houston and Tennessee both finish 9-7, and Indianapolis wins their remaining three games to finish 9-7, Indianapolis would win the AFC South in a three-way tie.  Houston and Tennessee must split their two games and then lose the other game to both finish 9-7.

Kansas City has already clinched the AFC West Division.

 

NFC

If Dallas and Philadelphia finished tied at 8-8 or 7-9, Dallas wins the NFC East.

If Green Bay and Minnesota finish tied at 12-4 with Minnesota winning versus the Packers in Week 16, Green Bay wins the NFC North Division. If they both finish tied at 11-5, with Green Bay losing to either Chicago or Detroit plus Minnesota, then Minnesota wins the division.

If Chicago, Minnesota, and Green Bay finish in a three-way tie at 10-6, then Chicago wins the NFC North.

New Orleans has already clinched the NFC South.

If Seattle beats San Francisco in Week 17, and the two teams finish in a tie for first at 12-4, Seattle wins the NFC West Division. Seattle also wins a three-way tie with the 49ers and LA Rams for first at 11-5.

There is no scenario where the LA Rams can win the division, because if they win out to finish 11-5, then if San Francisco loses out to finish 11-5, that means Seattle will have had to win their Week 17 game with San Francisco to make then also 11-5, where they hold the tiebreaker.

Wildcards

 

AFC

The Wildcard tiebreaker would come into play with three non-division winners ending with 10-6 or 9-7 records.

At 10-6, Pittsburgh and Buffalo would earn the Wildcards, while Tennessee would be eliminated at 10-6. If the three teams were 9-7, then Pittsburgh and Tennessee would earn the Wildcards, while Buffalo would be eliminated.

If New England were to lose out finishing tied at 10-6 with Tennessee and Pittsburgh,  while Buffalo wins the AFC East, then The Patriots miss the Playoffs while the Titans and Steelers are the Wildcards.

NFC

There is only a minor chance that the San Francisco 49ers or Seattle Seahawks would miss the Playoffs altogether. The 49ers would have to lose all three remaining games to have a very remote chance of missing the Playoffs, and the Seahawks would have to finish behind the Rams in the standings while finishing tied with the Bears at 10-6 to miss the Playoffs. For the 49ers to miss the Playoffs at 10-6, Minnesota and Los Angeles would have to finish 11-5 and Green Bay would have to finish 12-4 or 13-3. For the sake of making this a lot easier, let’s put both Seattle and San Francisco in the Playoffs, one as division champion and one as a wildcard, since the chance for both teams making the Playoffs is better than 97%.

The final wildcard spot would be up for grabs between Minnesota, Los Angeles, and Chicago. Since the Bears can only improve to 10-6 by winning out, let’s show the tiebreakers at 10-6. If Minnesota, Chicago, and Los Angeles all finish 10-6, then the Rams make it a trio from the NFC West in the Playoffs. Los Angeles also wins a tiebreaker at 11-5 with Minnesota.

The Rams also win the tiebreaker with Green Bay if Minnesota wins the North, and the Packers and Rams both finish 10-6.

The Bears can earn the Wildcard if they win out to finish 10-6 and LA finishes 9-7 or 8-8, while either Minnesota or Green Bay also finishes 10-6.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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