The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 12, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for December 15-21 Bowls and NFL Week 15

The Return of the Land Sharps

After taking a week off to regroup, our five Land Sharps are ready to return to their hopefully winning ways after ending the season on a sour note.  As bowl season begins, Cal Gal Tiffany has opened a commanding lead in return on investment, maintaining a healthy double digit percentage profit that has been rather consistent for the last several weeks.  Tiffany admits that she knows more about numbers than football strategy, so maybe we can learn something from her.  She likes underdogs, and she likes numbers that are a half-point higher than typical game outcomes.  In other words, she has played a lot of 3 1/2, 7 1/2, 10 1/2, 14 1/2, and 17 1/2 point underdogs this year.  Tiffy believes the books know what they are doing in setting the lines, and there is no way she can outsmart them by trying to figure out which team is better or worse than the line.  She goes simply by the numbers, and it has helped her take a large lead in our little contest.

Stewed Meat is in second place, but Stewed has been playing the B-team of selections this year, because Stewed plays other picks for real and does well enough to make it a full-time profession in Nevada.

Buckeye Michelle is very unhappy.  She believes Ohio State is the only team that can beat Alabama, and her Buckeyes will not get that chance.  She also is unhappy, because she was in first place at the start of November and now has a record just above .500 with no profit.  Michelle and Tiffany are friendly rivals who have known each other for 10 years, and Tiffy has given Michie the business in recent weeks.  Now to make you more unhappy–these two ladies are what you would call “smokin’ hot” and unfortunately,  for all but two of the male gender, are taken.  The funny thing is their guys are not really into football, as they follow the Cleveland Indians and Oakland Athletics and nothing else.  It’s the two ladies that occupy their woman caves to watch their games.

Dean615 was in the lead for a few weeks, but Dean says that a heavy November schedule made it hard to find time to study.  Dean says that he has had ample time to study the bowls.  Dean is the ex-football player who played in three bowl games and knows what it is like and believes he knows which teams are there to play and which just want to collect their bling packages and start their off seasons.

Friday Dog 13 is the renegade of our Land Sharps.  He has played a lot more favorites than underdogs, and it worked until No Fave November.  The Autumn winds raided his bank account, and sent him into the red at the wrong time of the year.  Friday Dog has had extracurricular issues this Autumn and also has not had a ton of time to devote to the lines as of late, but he should be able to study the bowls with more time.  You will see his theme in his first set of picks.  He is a fan of Mid-America.

And what about the PiRates themselves?  We have been contrarians to the Land Sharps.  When the Land Sharps began the season hot and profitable, the PiRates were sinking like rocks.  Then, after we noticed that our NFL teaser picks kept winning consistently, we began to add more teaser selections, and the last 5 weeks have been somewhat profitable.  Hopefully, this isn’t the kiss of death talking about it and including more of these selections.

Let’s start with the Land Sharps and their picks for the first week of bowl games.  All five made three selections.  Four of the five took the same team, and three of the five took another team, so take this for what you believe it is worth.  Also, a majority of the picks were on the underdogs.

#1) Cal Gal Tiffany

Season: 40-30-0 57.1%

Return on Investment: 10.0%

Georgia Southern -1 1/2 vs. Eastern Michigan

Western Michigan +12 1/2 vs. BYU

Tulane -3 1/2 vs. Louisiana

 

#2) Stewed Meat

Season: 38-32-3  54.3%

Return on Investment: 3.8%

North Texas +8 vs. Utah St.

Middle Tennessee +7 1/2 vs. Appalachian St.

Western Michigan +12 1/2 vs. BYU

 

#3) Buckeye Michelle

Season: 33-30-1  52.4%

Return on Investment: 0.0%

San Diego St. +3 vs. Ohio U

Tulane -3 1/2 vs. Louisiana

Western Michigan +12 1/2 vs. BYU

 

#4) Dean615

Season: 31-29-2  51.7%

Return on Investment: -1.5%

South Florida +2 1/2 vs. Marshall

Tulane -3 1/2 vs. Louisiana

Western Michigan +12 1/2 vs. BYU

 

#5) Friday Dog 13

Season: 36-35-1  50.7%

Return on Investment: -3.5%

Northern Illinois +2 1/2 vs. UAB

Toledo -5 1/2 vs. Florida International

Ohio U -2 1/2 vs. San Diego St.

 

The PiRate Rating Picks

For the bowl season, we have been experimenting with playing the underdogs with money line selections.  It is our hypothesis that if one plays the same amount on every bowl game by taking the underdog and the best money line odds you can get, that it could be very profitable.  Since we play with imaginary currency in an imaginary bank account, it does not hurt to play $100 on every bowl game by taking the underdog and finding the best odds.  If we lose every game, we are out $0, and if it wins, and returns a profit, then maybe the public will have knowledge for the future.  Therefore, you will see us picking the underdog to win every bowl game (not playoffs) this year and shopping for the best odds.

Here are the selections for the first week of games.

Favorite Underdog Moneyline Pick
Tulane Louisiana +155 Louisiana
Utah St. North Texas +275 North Texas
Fresno St. Arizona St. +167 Arizona St.
Georgia Southern Eastern Michigan +120 Eastern Michigan
Appalachian St. Middle Tennessee +235 Middle Tennessee
UAB Northern Illinois +125 Northern Illinois
Ohio U San Diego St. +135 San Diego St.
Marshall South Florida +125 South Florida
Toledo Florida Int’l. +195 Florida Int’l.
BYU Western Michigan +400 Western Michigan

NFL Teaser Picks to date:  26-12  68.4%

NFL 
10-point Teasers
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Chicago Green Bay 17 Green Bay
Minnesota Miami 17.5 Miami
Baltimore Tampa Bay 19.5 Tampa Bay
 

 

Team Team Total Pick
Kansas City L.A. Chargers 43 Over
Chicago Green Bay 35 Over
Minnesota Miami 34.5 Over

 

NFL 
13-point Teasers
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Detroit Buffalo 15.5 Buffalo
Tampa Bay Baltimore 5 Baltimore
Atlanta Arizona 23 Arizona
Cincinnati Oakland 16 Oakland
 

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
San Francisco Seattle 8.5 Seattle
New England Pittsburgh 14.5 Pittsburgh
Philadelphia L.A. Rams 4 L.A. Rams
Tennessee N.Y. Giants 15.5 N.Y. Giants
 

 

Team Team Total Pick
Houston N.Y. Jets 28 Over
Cleveland Denver 32.5 Over
Buffalo Detroit 25 Over
Baltimore Tampa Bay 60 Under
 

 

Team Team Total Pick
Oakland Cincinnati 33 Over
N.Y. Giants Tennessee 30.5 Over
Washington Jacksonville 49 Under
Indianapolis Dallas 34 Over
 

 

Team Team Total Pick
Seattle San Francisco 57.5 Under
L.A. Rams Philadelphia 40.5 Over
Arizona Atlanta 31 Over
New Orleans Carolina 65 Under

Remember that all of our selections on this site are strictly for entertainment purposes only.  We do not wager actual currency or coinage on these games.  We are purely a group of math statistics lovers that also love and played sports.  Please do not wager real money based only on what we publish here.

 

 

 

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December 10, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 15: December 13-17, 2018

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:07 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Kansas City L.A. Chargers 6.3 5.8 5.7 54
N.Y. Jets Houston -4.7 -5.2 -5.7 48
Denver Cleveland 6.0 5.7 5.2 44.5
Chicago Green Bay 7.8 7.5 8.9 47.5
Minnesota Miami 9.5 9.7 9.1 43.5
Buffalo Detroit -4.2 -4.2 -4.1 42
Baltimore Tampa Bay 10.5 10.9 10.1 46.5
Atlanta Arizona 7.7 7.9 7.6 43.5
Cincinnati Oakland 5.2 5.2 4.9 45
N.Y. Giants Tennessee 4.2 4.3 4.9 43
Jacksonville Washington 6.2 6.3 6.0 41.5
Indianapolis Dallas 2.4 1.5 3.0 45.5
San Francisco Seattle -7.1 -7.4 -8.3 44.5
Pittsburgh New England 4.0 3.8 3.7 47.5
L.A. Rams Philadelphia 9.5 9.8 9.7 51
Carolina New Orleans -9.9 -10.5 -10.4 51.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 105.6 105.9 105.8 105.8 23 9-4
Miami 95.3 95.1 95.3 95.2 23 7-6
N. Y. Jets 95.0 94.5 94.6 94.7 24 4-9
Buffalo 92.5 92.4 92.2 92.3 18 4-9
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 106.6 106.7 106.5 106.6 24.5 7-5-1
Baltimore 103.5 103.9 103.7 103.7 21 7-6
Cleveland 97.2 97.5 98.0 97.6 24.5 5-7-1
Cincinnati 94.6 94.7 94.2 94.5 23.5 5-8
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Houston 102.2 102.3 102.8 102.4 24 9-4
Indianapolis 101.2 100.4 101.4 101.0 25.5 7-6
Tennessee 97.4 97.4 97.1 97.3 20 7-6
Jacksonville 97.5 97.1 97.1 97.2 19 4-9
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 107.6 107.8 107.5 107.6 30 11-2
LA Chargers 104.2 105.0 104.8 104.7 24 10-3
Denver 100.3 100.2 100.2 100.2 20 6-7
Oakland 91.8 92.0 91.9 91.9 21.5 3-10
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Dallas 101.8 101.8 101.4 101.7 20 8-5
Philadelphia 100.8 100.9 100.7 100.8 22.5 6-7
N.Y. Giants 98.6 98.7 99.0 98.8 23 5-8
Washington 93.9 93.2 93.6 93.6 22.5 6-7
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Chicago 105.0 105.2 106.0 105.4 23 9-4
Minnesota 101.8 101.7 101.4 101.6 20.5 6-6-1
Green Bay 99.8 100.2 99.6 99.8 24.5 5-7-1
Detroit 99.2 99.1 98.8 99.0 24 5-8
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 112.8 112.9 113.1 112.9 27 11-2
Carolina 100.4 99.9 100.1 100.1 24.5 6-7
Atlanta 98.5 98.2 97.9 98.2 25.5 4-9
Tampa Bay 95.9 96.0 96.6 96.2 25.5 5-8
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 107.4 107.7 107.4 107.5 28.5 11-2
Seattle 104.8 105.0 105.6 105.1 22.5 8-5
San Francisco 94.7 94.6 94.3 94.5 22 3-10
Arizona 93.8 93.3 93.3 93.5 18 2-11

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Kansas City
2 Houston
3 New England
4 Pittsburgh
5 L.A. Chargers
6 Miami

 

NFC Seeding
1 New Orleans
2 L.A. Rams
3 Chicago
4 Dallas
5 Seattle
6 Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round
New England over Miami
L.A. Chargers over Pittsburgh
Chicago over Minnesota
Dallas over Seattle

 

Divisional Round
Kansas City over L.A. Chargers
Houston over New England
New Orleans over Dallas
L.A. Rams over Chicago

 

Conference Championship
Kansas City over Houston
L.A. Rams over New Orleans

 

Super Bowl 53
Kansas City over L.A. Rams

 

 

 

 

 

 

December 6, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for December 6-10, 2018

The Land Sharps are taking a week off this week, since they play only college games, and there is just one game.  They will return for the bowls and playoffs.

In the meantime, the PiRate Ratings will go it alone and select our teaser choices for you to look at but not touch.  In other words, please do not wager real currency on what we issue here, as this is for entertainment purposes only.  While, our NFL picks have been on fire now for about a month, this does not mean they won’t stink it up so bad that they need to be sprayed with poopouri.

COLLEGE
13-Point Teaser 4-Game Parlays @12-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Army Navy 20 Navy
Navy Army 6 Army
Army Navy 27 OVER
Army Navy 53 UNDER

 

N F L

10-Point Teasers 3-Game Parlays @11-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Tennessee Jacksonville 15.5 Jacksonville
Baltimore Kansas City 3.5 Kansas City
Indianapolis Houston 5 Houston
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Green Bay Atlanta 15 Atlanta
New England Miami 17.5 Miami
Cleveland Carolina 9 Carolina
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Oakland Pittsburgh Pk Pittsburgh
Chicago L.A. Rams 7 L.A. Rams
Minnesota Seattle 7 Seattle
Team Team Total Pick
Kansas City Baltimore 41 OVER
Houston Indianapolis 59.5 UNDER
N.Y. Giants Washington 31 OVER
Team Team Total Pick
New Orleans Tampa Bay 45.5 OVER
Carolina Cleveland 37 OVER
Arizona Detroit 30.5 OVER
13-Point Teaser 4 Game parlay @12-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Washington N.Y. Giants 9.5 N.Y. Giants
San Francisco Denver 9.5 Denver
L.A. Chargers Cincinnati 1 L.A. Chargers
Detroit Arizona 16 Arizona

 

 

 

December 4, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 14: December 6-10, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Tennessee Jacksonville 0.6 0.9 0.3 39
Kansas City Baltimore 8.0 8.0 8.1 51
Houston Indianapolis 5.0 6.3 5.7 49.5
Cleveland Carolina -2.1 -1.4 -1.4 49
Green Bay Atlanta 2.6 3.3 2.6 49.5
Tampa Bay New Orleans -13.5 -13.5 -13.1 53.5
Buffalo N.Y. Jets 0.2 0.7 0.6 41
Miami New England -8.2 -9.2 -9.0 44.5
Chicago L.A. Rams -0.6 -1.3 0.0 52.5
Washington N.Y. Giants 1.8 0.9 1.4 44
San Francisco Denver -6.1 -6.1 -6.4 43
L.A. Chargers Cincinnati 13.3 13.9 14.2 47.5
Arizona Detroit -1.3 -1.5 -1.0 43
Dallas Philadelphia 4.1 4.3 4.4 41
Oakland Pittsburgh -12.8 -12.7 -12.6 46
Seattle Minnesota 4.8 4.9 5.8 44

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings 

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 105.9 106.4 106.4 106.2 22.5 9-3
Miami 94.7 94.3 94.4 94.4 22 6-6
N. Y. Jets 94.6 94.1 94.1 94.3 23.5 3-9
Buffalo 92.9 92.8 92.7 92.8 17.5 4-8
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 106.5 106.5 106.2 106.4 24.5 7-4-1
Baltimore 102.9 103.2 102.9 103.0 21 7-5
Cleveland 96.6 96.9 97.3 96.9 24.5 4-7-1
Cincinnati 94.3 94.4 93.9 94.2 23.5 5-7
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Houston 102.8 103.1 103.6 103.1 24 9-3
Indianapolis 100.3 99.3 100.3 100.0 25.5 6-6
Jacksonville 98.8 98.5 98.6 98.6 19 4-8
Tennessee 96.9 96.8 96.4 96.7 20 6-6
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 107.9 108.2 108.0 108.0 30 10-2
LA Chargers 104.5 105.3 105.1 105.0 24 9-3
Denver 101.8 101.7 101.7 101.7 20.5 6-6
Oakland 90.7 90.8 90.6 90.7 21.5 2-10
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Dallas 101.9 102.0 101.7 101.9 19 7-5
Philadelphia 100.7 100.7 100.4 100.6 22 6-6
N.Y. Giants 96.3 96.5 96.6 96.5 22 4-8
Washington 96.2 95.4 96.0 95.9 22 6-6
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Chicago 104.2 104.2 105.0 104.5 23.5 8-4
Minnesota 102.4 102.4 102.1 102.3 21 6-5-1
Green Bay 99.1 99.5 98.7 99.1 24 4-7-1
Detroit 98.4 98.2 97.8 98.1 24.5 4-8
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 112.5 112.6 112.8 112.6 27.5 10-2
Carolina 101.3 100.8 101.1 101.1 24.5 6-6
Atlanta 99.5 99.2 99.1 99.2 25.5 4-8
Tampa Bay 96.0 96.1 96.7 96.3 26 5-7
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 107.9 108.4 108.1 108.1 29 11-1
Seattle 104.2 104.3 104.9 104.5 23 7-5
Arizona 94.6 94.2 94.3 94.4 18.5 3-9
San Francisco 93.2 93.1 92.8 93.0 22.5 2-10

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Kansas City
2 New England
3 Houston
4 Pittsburgh
5 L.A. Chargers
6 Baltimore
NFC Seeding
1 L.A. Rams
2 New Orleans
3 Chicago
4 Philadelphia
5 Seattle
6 Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round
Houston over Baltimore
L.A. Chargers over Pittsburgh
Chicago over Minnesota
Philadelphia over Seattle

 

Divisional Round
L.A. Chargers over Kansas City
New England over Houston
New Orleans over Chicago
L.A. Rams over Philadelphia

 

Conference Championship
L.A. Chargers over New England
L.A. Rams over New Orleans

 

Super Bowl 53
L.A. Rams over L.A. Chargers

 

 

November 26, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 13: November 29-December 3, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Dallas New Orleans -10.8 -11.0 -11.7 48
Jacksonville Indianapolis 0.7 1.1 -0.3 46
Pittsburgh L.A. Chargers 5.9 5.4 5.5 47.5
Tampa Bay Carolina -4.5 -4.1 -4.0 51.5
Atlanta Baltimore 1.0 0.2 0.7 46.5
Houston Cleveland 7.5 7.2 7.2 49.5
Miami Buffalo 4.6 4.3 4.5 39.5
N.Y. Giants Chicago -6.3 -6.3 -7.0 44.5
Cincinnati Denver -2.6 -2.2 -2.4 45.5
Detroit L.A. Rams -6.2 -7.0 -6.5 54
Green Bay Arizona 9.2 10.4 9.4 43.5
Oakland Kansas City -14.4 -14.9 -15.2 50
Tennessee N.Y. Jets 4.8 5.4 4.8 42.5
New England Minnesota 5.4 5.7 5.8 44.5
Seattle San Francisco 11.7 11.7 12.6 44.5
Philadelphia Washington 5.1 5.8 4.5 44

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 105.1 105.5 105.4 105.3 23 8-3
Miami 95.0 94.6 94.7 94.7 22 5-6
N. Y. Jets 94.6 94.0 94.1 94.2 23 3-8
Buffalo 92.9 92.8 92.7 92.8 17.5 4-7
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 107.0 107.1 106.9 107.0 24 7-3-1
Baltimore 102.3 102.6 102.2 102.4 21 6-5
Cleveland 97.2 97.6 98.1 97.6 25 4-6-1
Cincinnati 95.5 95.7 95.3 95.5 24.5 5-6
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Houston 102.2 102.4 102.8 102.4 24.5 8-3
Indianapolis 100.5 99.6 100.8 100.3 26.5 6-5
Jacksonville 98.6 98.2 98.1 98.3 19.5 3-8
Tennessee 96.9 96.9 96.4 96.7 19.5 5-6
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 107.9 108.3 108.2 108.1 29.5 9-2
LA Chargers 104.0 104.7 104.4 104.4 23.5 8-3
Denver 100.6 100.4 100.3 100.4 21 5-6
Oakland 90.4 90.4 90.1 90.3 20.5 2-9
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Dallas 100.4 100.4 100.0 100.3 20 6-5
Philadelphia 99.7 99.7 99.2 99.5 22 5-6
Washington 97.2 96.4 97.2 96.9 22 6-5
N.Y. Giants 95.6 95.7 95.8 95.7 21.5 3-8
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Chicago 104.4 104.5 105.3 104.7 23 8-3
Minnesota 102.7 102.8 102.6 102.7 21.5 6-4-1
Green Bay 100.2 100.8 100.0 100.3 24.5 4-6-1
Detroit 98.8 98.6 98.4 98.6 25 4-7
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 113.7 113.9 114.2 113.9 28 10-1
Carolina 102.4 102.0 102.4 102.3 25 6-5
Atlanta 100.7 100.4 100.4 100.5 25.5 4-7
Tampa Bay 95.4 95.4 95.9 95.6 26.5 4-7
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 107.5 108.0 107.5 107.7 29 10-1
Seattle 102.9 102.9 103.5 103.1 22.5 6-5
San Francisco 94.2 94.2 93.9 94.1 22 2-9
Arizona 94.0 93.4 93.5 93.6 19 2-9

 

If The Playoffs Began Today

AFC Seedings

  1. Kansas City
  2. New England
  3. Houston
  4. Pittsburgh
  5. L.A. Chargers
  6. Baltimore

NFC Seedings

  1. New Orleans
  2. L.A. Rams
  3. Chicago
  4. Dallas
  5. Minnesota
  6. Washington

 

 

Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Kansas City
2 New England
3 Houston
4 Pittsburgh
5 L.A. Chargers
6 Indianapolis

 

NFC Seeding
1 New Orleans
2 L.A. Rams
3 Chicago
4 Dallas
5 Seattle
6 Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round
Houston over Indianapolis
L.A. Chargers over Pittsburgh
Chicago over Minnesota
Seattle over Dallas

 

Divisional Round
L.A. Chargers over Kansas City
New England over Houston
New Orleans over Seattle
L.A. Rams over Chicago

 

Conference Championship
New England over L.A. Chargers
New Orleans over L.A. Rams

 

Super Bowl 53
New Orleans over New England

 

 

 

November 21, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for November 21-26, 2018

Oh woe to us!  After so many really nice winning weeks by our Land Sharps, they took a beating last week.  One went into the red in his account, while the other four all slipped dangerously close to joining in the red ink ledgers.

Our own PiRate Ratings have had almost a -1 correlation with the Land Sharps this year.  While the Sharps were losing, our own picks had their second best results of the season, finishing 9-3 against the spread including winning that incredible 15-game parlay.  We promise 5 Dimes not to give them any further heart attacks this year, so we will not issue any more of them.

This is rivalry week, and it is historically one of the hardest weeks for investors to show a profit by late Monday night.  However, we tend to focus on other implications besides rivalry bragging rights.  There are other, even more important factors to consider this week.  If a team is 5-6, or if a team’s coach has been told to get a cardboard box and clean out his office after Saturday, the players on that team are going to play their A-games.  A 2-9 team may play like they are 7-4, and a 4-7 team may play like they are 9-2.  On the other hand, there might be teams that saw their chance for glory go by the wayside in the last couple of weeks.  Teams that were 4-5 and are now 4-7 have little to play for.  They know this is their last game of the year, and they can look forward to spending Christmas at home.  Their mind is on Grandma’s pie and Mom’s prized winning ham.  Then, there are the teams that have suffered through dissension in the last half of the schedule.  Many of their players have basically quit on their coach, because they hope he isn’t back the next season.  There are a lot of factors to consider when playing Week 13 games.

Our Land Sharps threw caution to the wind this week.  We expected one or more to play the minimum three games trying to stall out the season and guarantee a winning record.  But, like Ted Williams in 1941, they are not going to sit out the final.  They are going to play both games of the double header.  Let’s hope they all can raise their batting average up to .407 by the end of the weekend.

1.) Cal Gal Tiffany  Season: 36-26-0  Return on Investment: 11.9%

Memphis -7 vs. Houston

Washington St.  -2 1/2 vs. Washington

Pittsburgh +4 1/2 vs. Miami (Fla.)

South Carolina +26 1/2 vs. Clemson

Texas A&M -3 vs. LSU

 

2.) Stewed Meat  Season 35-27-1  Return on Investment: 8.4%

Ole Miss +12 vs. Mississippi St.

Coastal Carolina Pk. vs. South Alabama

Florida Int’l. +3 vs. Marshall

Troy +11 vs. Appalachian St.

SMU -2 1/2 vs. Tulsa

Colorado +12 1/2 vs. California

Texas A&M -3 vs. LSU

 

3.) Dean615  Season: 27-22-2  Return on Investment: 5.5%

Notre Dame -10 1/2 vs. USC

Houston +7 1/2 vs. Memphis

Michigan – 4 1/2 vs. Ohio St.

Middle Tennessee +3 vs. UAB

Maryland +13 1/2 vs. Penn St.

Minnesota + 10 1/2 vs. Wisconsin

Tennessee +3 1/2 vs. Vanderbilt

 

4.) Buckeye Michelle  Season: 28-23-1  Return on Investment: 5.2%

Virginia -4 vs. Virginia Tech

Indiana +4 vs. Purdue

Wake Forest +12 vs. Duke

Wyoming -6 1/2 vs. New Mexico

Kansas St. +13 1/2 vs. Iowa St.

Ohio St. +4 1/2 vs. Michigan

Washington St. -2 1/2 vs. Washington

 

5.) Friday Dog 13: Season 30-28-1  Return on Investment: -1.4%

Buffalo – 14 1/2 vs. Bowling Green

Florida -6 vs. Florida St.

Michigan -4 1/2 vs. Ohio St.

North Carolina St. -7 vs. North Carolina

Central Florida -14 vs. South Florida

Stanford -6 1/2 vs. UCLA

UAB -2 1/2 vs. Middle Tennessee

Notre Dame – 10 1/2 vs. USC

Nevada -13 vs. UNLV

 

The PiRate Ratings Selections

COLLEGE
10-Point Teasers 3-Game Parlays @11-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Air Force Colorado St. 24.5 Colorado St.
Texas Kansas 5 Texas
Navy Tulane 3 Tulane
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Marshall Florida Int’l. 13 Florida Int’l.
Rice Old Dominion 2.5 Old Dominion
Central Florida South Florida 4 Central Florida
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
New Mexico Wyoming 3 Wyoming
Arizona St. Arizona 12 Arizona
Miami (Fla.) Pittsburgh 14.5 Pittsburgh
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Tulsa SMU 7.5 SMU
California Colorado 2.5 California
Notre Dame USC 0.5 Notre Dame
13-point Teasers 4 Game Parlays @12-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Middle Tennessee UAB 10.5 UAB
Duke Wake Forest 25 Wake Forest
West Virginia Oklahoma 10.5 Oklahoma
Washington Washington St. 10.5 Washington St.
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Missouri Arkansas 10 Missouri
Michigan Ohio St. 17.5 Ohio St.
LSU Texas A&M 10 Texas A&M
Utah St. Boise St. 10.5 Boise St.
Money Line Parlay @ +175
Must Win Must Lose
Florida Int’l. Marshall
Texas Kansas
Money Line Parlay @ +153
Must Win Must Lose
SMU Tulsa
Georgia Southern Georgia St.
Central Florida South Florida
Money Line Parlay @ +222
Must Win Must Lose
Oklahoma West Virginia
Wyoming New Mexico
Tulane Navy
Money Line Parlay @ +295
Must Win Must Lose
Washington St. Washington
UL-Monroe Louisiana
Florida Florida St.
NFL
10-Point Teaser 3-Game Parlay @11-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Chicago Detroit 13.5 Detroit
Washington Dallas 3 Dallas
New Orleans Atlanta 3 New Orleans
13-Point Teasers 4-Game Parlays @12-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Philadelphia N.Y. Giants 19 N.Y. Giants
N.Y. Jets New England 2.5 New England
Arizona L.A. Chargers 0.5 L.A. Chargers
Miami Indianapolis 5.5 Indianapolis
Team Team Total Pick
Chicago Detroit 31.5 Over
Dallas Washington 27.5 Over
San Francisco Tampa Bay 67.5 Under
Philadelphia N.Y. Giants 33 Over

Remember This Important Fact: All of the selections you see here are posted for entertainment purposes only.  None of the Pirates or guest Land Sharps actually play their selections for real.  While Stewed Meat is a professional, Stewed never posts the actual picks played in Nevada.  These are Stewed’s runner up picks that are not played.  We strongly encourage you not to wager real money on any selections you see here.

November 20, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 12: November 22-26, 2018

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:49 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Detroit Chicago -2.3 -2.3 -3.3 49
Dallas Washington 5.8 6.6 5.4 41
New Orleans Atlanta 16.2 16.7 17.2 53.5
Buffalo Jacksonville -4.1 -3.8 -4.2 36
Baltimore Oakland 15.0 15.4 15.3 41.5
Tampa Bay San Francisco 2.4 1.9 2.7 49.5
Philadelphia N.Y. Giants 6.3 6.4 5.8 43.5
Cincinnati Cleveland 2.5 2.6 2.0 48
N.Y. Jets New England -7.4 -8.4 -7.8 46
Carolina Seattle 3.2 2.8 3.1 46.5
Indianapolis Miami 8.9 8.4 9.6 48.5
L.A. Chargers Arizona 10.2 11.6 10.7 41.5
Denver Pittsburgh -4.9 -5.4 -5.5 45
Minnesota Green Bay 4.8 4.3 4.9 46
Houston Tennessee 6.0 5.9 6.7 43

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 104.8 105.2 104.9 105.0 23 7-3
N. Y. Jets 94.9 94.3 94.6 94.6 23 3-7
Miami 94.8 94.4 94.5 94.5 22 5-5
Buffalo 92.6 92.5 92.2 92.4 17 3-7
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 107.5 107.7 107.6 107.6 24 7-2-1
Baltimore 102.2 102.5 102.1 102.3 21 5-5
Cincinnati 96.7 97.0 96.7 96.8 24 5-5
Cleveland 96.1 96.4 96.8 96.4 24 3-6-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Houston 101.1 101.2 101.5 101.2 24 7-3
Indianapolis 100.7 99.8 101.0 100.5 26.5 5-5
Jacksonville 99.2 98.8 98.9 98.9 19 3-7
Tennessee 98.1 98.2 97.8 98.0 19 5-5
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 107.6 108.0 107.9 107.8 29.5 9-2
LA Chargers 102.9 103.6 103.1 103.2 23 7-3
Denver 99.6 99.3 99.1 99.3 21 4-6
Oakland 90.6 90.6 90.3 90.5 20.5 2-8
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Dallas 100.4 100.4 100.0 100.3 19.5 5-5
Philadelphia 99.8 99.9 99.4 99.7 22 4-6
Washington 97.6 96.8 97.6 97.3 21.5 6-4
N.Y. Giants 95.5 95.5 95.6 95.5 21.5 3-7
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Chicago 104.2 104.2 105.0 104.5 23.5 7-3
Minnesota 102.6 102.7 102.5 102.6 21.5 5-4-1
Green Bay 100.3 100.9 100.1 100.4 24.5 4-5-1
Detroit 99.0 98.9 98.7 98.9 25.5 4-6
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 113.8 114.0 114.4 114.1 28 9-1
Carolina 102.6 102.2 102.8 102.5 24.5 6-4
Atlanta 100.6 100.3 100.2 100.3 25.5 4-6
Tampa Bay 94.6 94.4 94.9 94.6 27 3-7
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 107.2 107.7 107.2 107.4 29 10-1
Seattle 102.4 102.4 102.8 102.5 22 5-5
San Francisco 95.3 95.5 95.2 95.3 22.5 2-8
Arizona 95.2 94.6 94.9 94.9 18.5 2-8

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

If Playoffs Began Today

AFC
1 Kansas City
2 Pittsburgh
3 New England
4 Houston
5 L.A. Chargers
6 Baltimore

 

NFC
1 L.A. Rams
2 New Orleans
3 Chicago
4 Washington
5 Carolina
6 Minnesota

 

Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Pittsburgh
2 Kansas City
3 New England
4 Houston
5 L.A. Chargers
6 Indianapolis

 

NFC Seeding
1 New Orleans
2 L.A. Rams
3 Chicago
4 Dallas
5 Carolina
6 Seattle

 

Wildcard Round
Indianapolis over New England
Houston over L.A. Chargers
Chicago over Seattle
Carolina over Dallas

 

Divisional Round
Pittsburgh over Indianapolis
Kansas City over Houston
New Orleans over Carolina
L.A. Rams over Chicago

 

Conference Championship
PIttsburgh over Kansas City
New Orleans over L.A. Rams

 

Super Bowl 53
New Orleans over Pittsburgh

 

Last Night’s Rams-Chiefs Game Made A Lot of History, BUT…

Last night’s Rams-Chiefs game at the Coliseum in Los Angeles was historic.  The 105 points scored, however, was not an all-time regular season high total.  Yours truly remembers the one game that tallied 113 total points.

The year was 1966.  The Green Bay Packers were trying to win the Western Conference Championship with the Baltimore Colts hot on their heels.  In the Eastern Conference, upstart Dallas, a seventh year franchise yet to have experienced a winning record was about to surprise the two-time defending Eastern Conference Champion Cleveland.

It was the Sunday after Thanksgiving.  The football world was still talking about the Michigan State-Notre Dame game the week before and the fact that Notre Dame had secured the national title by their 51-0 pasting of USC the day before.

The Washington Redskins were just 5-6 on the dawn of this Sunday.  For Redskin fans, this was a high water mark for their franchise in recent years, as the club became known as the “Deadskins” during these years.  Legendary quarterback Otto Graham, the Tom Brady of the late 1940’s and 1950’s, had taken over the running of the team, and in his first year as head coach, Washington’s offense was much improved.  Quarterback Sonny Jurgensen flourished in the new offense, and the defense was still a work in progress with a couple of aging stars, led by the once best defender in the league in Sam Huff.

The New York Giants were headed in the opposite direction.  Just a few years earlier, the Giants rode the arm of Y.A. Tittle to three consecutive Eastern Conference Championships.  From the late 1940’s through the early 1960’s, the Giants were the most consistently good team in the NFL, much like the Pittsburgh Steelers have been since the 1970’s.  However, by 1966, the Giants had fallen on hard times.  This was their worst team in history up to that time and arguably their worst team ever.  Coach Allie Sherman’s offense was too inconsistent and conservative, and after half of a season, Sherman benched veteran starter Earl Morrall, when the Giants fell to 1-5-1.  The lone win came over the Redskins at Yankee Stadium.  At the halfway point, Sherman decided to go with what he believed was the future quarterback, Ivy Leaguer Gary Wood.  Wood was in his third season in New York, and he had played sparingly and inefficiently.  The Giants lost their next game, and they headed to District of Columbia Stadium (would be renamed Robert F. Kennedy Stadium after his assassination) to face the Redskins in a hope to sweep the one team the players believed they could beat.  They entered the game at 1-8-1.

Sherman decided to make another quarterback change for this game.  He inserted Rookie Tom Kennedy, a stretch prospect from a small college.  This would be Kennedy’s only start of his brief one year career and only real playing experience of the season.

On the other side of the field, the aging Huff prepared for this game like it was Super Bowl I.  He hated Sherman, enough to punch him in the jaw if he got the chance.  Sherman had dismissed Huff from the Giants following the 1963 season after the Giants lost to the Bears in the NFL Championship.  He wanted to punish Sherman, and when the Redskins lost to New York a few weeks earlier, it made Huff even more violent than was portrayed in the spectacular documentary, “The Violent World of Sam Huff.”

Huff fired up his teammates for this game.  The Redskins put in a game plan to blitz the daylights out of the raw rookie.  They would rush him and force him to get rid of the ball quickly or prepare to accept a lot of floral bouquets in his upcoming hospital room.

On the other side of the ball, the Redskins understood that with an erratic quarterback most likely unable to sustain many drives, that they would get many opportunities to exploit the worst defense in the NFL.  The Redskins’ players felt confident that they could top 30 points in this game and win by double digits.

The Giants won the toss that day.  It would be their only win of the day.  Kennedy was thrown into the fray quickly, and on his first pass attempt, Washington blitzed and forced him to pass quickly.  The ball was well off target and was intercepted and returned deep into Giants’ territory.  A short Redskin drive led to an immediate touchdown.  The PAT was blocked, and the score was 6-0 Redskins.

Kennedy improved somewhat the rest of the first quarter.  He improved from intercepted passes to incomplete passes.  At least, punter Ernie Koy pinned the Redskins back inside their own 25 yard line.

The Giants figured that they would have to stop Jurgensen’s pinpoint deep passes to all-pro end Charley Taylor.  This opened up running lanes, and halfback A.D. Whitfield broke free for the longest run in his career, over 60 yards for the second touchdown.  The PAT was good this time, and the Redskins led 13-0 after the end of the first quarter.  Nobody could guess what would happen next.

In the second quarter, Kennedy began to complete some passes and drove the Giants into Washington territory.  A pass play was called with an option to throw the ball to the end zone.  Facing a linebacker blitz, Chris Hanburger clobbered Kennedy into the ground, and he coughed up the ball going down.  Rookie defensive back Brig Owens would be a star one day, but on this day, he would have his best ever game.  He already had an interception in this game, and he scooped up the fumble and went all the way to the house for a Redskins’ touchdown.  Now, the score was 20-0, and the Giants could see the writing on the wall.

On the next possession, Kennedy had his career moment.  He drove the Giants 70+ yards for a touchdown to cut the lead to 20-7.  Kennedy felt confident on the sideline that he could lead the Giants back into this game.  After the defense forced Washington to punt, Kennedy began to move the Giants toward midfield, when he threw his second interception of the half.  A few plays later, Washington scored on a line plunge to make it 27-7 with time left to completely put the game away before halftime.

Once again, the key weapon for the Redskins just before the half was their defensive backfield.  Kennedy threw his third interception into the hands of future Minnesota Vikings’ Hall of Famer Paul Krause.  Jurgensen quickly led the Redskins to paydirt, and Washington led 34-7 with less than two minutes remaining in the half.  At this point, Sherman had seen enough of Kennedy.  He inserted Wood into the game, and Wood directed the Giants on a quick touchdown drive to cut the lead to 34-14 at the half.

In the locker room, Huff told his teammates not to let up and to pour it on New York.  He wanted to top 50 points, maybe even get to 60.  He knew the Giants’ defense would totally fold in the second half.  In the other locker room, Sherman decided to stick with Wood at quarterback to start the third quarter.  Wood would face the same blitz packages as Kennedy, but Wood was just as interception prone as Kennedy.  He was just as likely to complete passes to the wrong colored jersey as his own, and he would not disappoint Huff and his Redskins’ teammates.

However, on the Giants’ first possession of the third quarter, Wood directed the Giants on a scoring march.  The Giants might have been inept on defense, but they still had some weapons.  Receivers Homer Jones and Aaron Thomas were threats to score any time they caught the ball in the open field.  Old-timer Joe Morrison still had the ability to find an overdrive gear and bust open a long play.  Wood connected with Morrison, and the veteran took the ball the distance to cut the lead to 34-21.  The Giants were still alive with more than a quarter to go.

I know what you are thinking.  At this point, the game was midway through the third quarter, and the score was only 34-21.  How in the world could the teams combine for 58 more points in the next quarter and a half?  From this point on, it looked like an Arena Football game.  It started with a quick touchdown drive led by Jurgensen to put the Redskins up 41-21.  He finally connected with Taylor on a long scoring pass.

A few plays into the next drive, Wood threw a long bomb for a touchdown to Jones to cut the lead to 41-28.  Not to be outdone, Jurgensen threw long to Taylor, and Taylor took it all the way for a 74-yard score to make it 48-28, as the third quarter came to a close.

The fourth quarter was just plain crazy.  It started with New York having to punt from well inside their own territory.  Rickie Harris, who led the NFL in punt returns as a rookie in 1965 was experiencing a sophomore slump, but he broke free for a touchdown on the return, as Washington stretched the lead to 55-28.

Rather quickly, Wood tossed a touchdown pass, but this time it was to the opposite colored jerseys.  Owens intercepted his third pass of the day, and he scored on his second 60+ yard return to make it 62-28.

At this point, Sherman put Kennedy back in to face the relentless pressure.  In what would be his one big highlight of the day, he quickly responded with a touchdown pass to Thomas to make it 62-34 when the PAT sailed wide.

At this point, Graham relieved Jurgensen for the rest of the day, placing backup Dick Shiner into the game.  Shiner attempted one pass on the day, and it was intercepted, which led to the Giants scoring for the last time on this day to cut the lead to 62-41.  Time was running out on this classic game, but there would be two more scores yet.

Down by three touchdowns, Sherman called for an onside kick, which failed.  A couple of plays later, back Charlie Mitchell broke through the line on a quick trap and ran 45 yards for a touchdown.  The score was now 69-41 in favor of the Redskins, the second highest amount ever scored in an NFL game.

The last score should not have happened.  Kennedy tried to move the Giants quickly and was out of time outs.  He thought he was clocking the ball on 3rd down to set up a 4th down pass for a first down, but instead, it was 4th down.  When he threw the ball out of bounds (spiking was not legal then), the Redskins took over possession deep in Giants’ territory with less than 10 seconds remaining.

All Washington had to do was take a knee, and the game would be over.  But, Sam Huff had other ideas this Sunday afternoon.  He wasn’t pleased with just a 28-point when and 69 points.  He hated Sherman so much that he called a timeout.  He convinced Coach Graham to let kicker Charlie Gogolak try a field goal to put Washington over the 70-point mark, something that had only been done once before in regular season play and would be second most ever to when Chicago beat the Redskins 73-0 in the NFL Championship Game of 1945.

During the timeout, Huff was observed telling Sherman about his family heritage among other expletives.  He wanted to goad the Giants into starting a fight, so he could go deck Sherman.  Instead, Gogolak finished the game with a field goal to make the final score 72-41.  Coach Graham stood up for Huff by stating that he wanted to give Gogolak some extra field goal practice, but Charlie had made nine PATs in this game and didn’t need any more practice.

The win moved Washington to 6-6 in the standings, and the Redskins would split their final two games to finish the season at 7-7, their only non-losing record in a 12-year span.  Washington would not enjoy a winning season until 1969 when Vince Lombardi coached his last team prior to his death.

As for the Giants, the next week, they scored 40 points again, and for the only time in history a team lost consecutive games when they scored 40 or more points, as the Browns came from 20 points down to win 49-40.  New York would finish the season 1-12-1, giving up 35.8 points per game and turning the ball over an amazing 44 times in 14 games.  They would finally have a star quarterback the following year, when they traded for Fran Tarkenton from Minnesota, but the best Sherman could do with Tarkenton were consecutive 7-7 seasons in 1967 and 1968.  It would take until 1981 for the Giants to make the playoffs again.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 7, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for November 7-12, 2018

How many times have you watched a college basketball game where a team gets a big lead  early and appears to be in control?  Then, the coach orders the players to become more patient on offense and look for high percentage shots rather than run the offense that got them the lead.  Subconsciously, the players become passive and slow down a bit, as they try to avoid turnovers.

As sure as the sun rises, this team loses its lead, sometimes all the way.  The other team exploits the passive play and goes on a run.  Then, the coach of the team that lost the lead, calls time out and yells at his team for doing basically what he told them to do.

Ladies and gentlemen–some of our Land Sharps may have been afflicted with this malady in recent weeks.  All five of our guest prognosticators got out to big leads in the land of picking winners against the spread.  Then, in recent weeks, they slowed down the pace and played it safe, only to see their great returns reduced by several percentage points.  The infamous books have reclaimed some of the investment as we round the turn and head down the backstretch of the 2018 season.

Today, three of our Land Sharps are going with just three games.  The game has tightened up, and they are running Four Corners, maybe a little too early in the game.  One Land Sharp is going with five selections, while the most liberal of the group is going with seven.

As for the PiRates, hey, we stink this year in our selections.  We are so far under water, we’d get the bends if we tried to re-surface quickly enough not to drown this season.  Our picks have not worked for us this year.  We have nothing to lose by going with more than a dozen selections, including a recommendation from one of our followers.

However, we have a saving grace here.  We never wager actual currency on any of the games we select, and if you have an ounce of brains, you will follow our lead.  Unless, of course, you are Stewed Meat, because Stewed is a professional in Vegas, although in recent days, we aren’t so sure about Stewed, after Stewed apparently went on the airwaves three sheets to the wind.  But, then what happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas.

Unfortunately for us, what is invested in Vegas stayed in Vegas last week, if only in a pretend manner.

Still, all five of our Land Sharps are in the black for the season.  We have a new leader overall, as Dean615 has moved from last place to first place in one month.

Here are our wonderful Land Sharp selections for this week.

1. Dean615–Season: 24-17-2  Return on Investment: 12.3%

Vanderbilt +17 vs. Missouri

Kentucky -5.5 vs. Tennessee

Northwestern +11 vs. Iowa

 

2. Cal Gal Tiffany–Season: 29-22-0  Return on Investment: 9.4%

Boise St. +3 vs. Fresno St.

Auburn +14.5 vs. Georgia

Texas -1 vs. Texas Tech

Oregon St. +24 vs. Stanford

Georgia Tech -3 vs. Georgia

Washington St. -6 vs. Colorado

Kansas +12 vs. Kansas St.

 

3. Stewed Meat–Season: 31-24-0  Return on Investment: 8.4%

South Carolina +7 vs. Florida

Kansas +12 vs. Kansas St.

North Carolina +10.5 vs. Duke

 

4. Friday Dog 13–Season: 27-21-1  Return on Investment: 8.0%

Ohio U -4 vs. Miami (O)

Ohio U & Miami (O)  OVER 61.5

Middle Tennessee -13 vs. UTEP

North Carolina St. -17 vs. Wake Forest

Notre Dame -17.5 vs. Florida St.

 

5. Buckeye Michelle–Season: 23-20-1  Return on Investment: 1.8%

Indiana -1.5 vs. Maryland

Washington St. -6 vs. Colorado

Boston College +20.5 vs. Clemson

 

The PiRate Ratings Selections for This Week

COLLEGE

10-point Teasers  (3 game parlays at 11-10)

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Syracuse Louisville 10.5 Syracuse
Texas A&M Ole Miss 1.5 Texas A&M
Kansas St. Kansas 22 Kansas

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
West Virginia TCU 1.5 WVU
Eastern Michigan Akron 3 EMU
Duke North Carolina Pk Duke

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Arizona St. UCLA 2.5 Arizona St.
Oklahoma Oklahoma St. 9.5 Oklahoma
Purdue Minnesota 2.5 Purdue

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Tulane East Carolina 3.5 Tulane
Florida Atlantic Western Kentucky 10 Florida Atlantic
Georgia Auburn 24.5 Auburn

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Cinciannati East Carolina 2.5 Cincinnati
Texas Tech Texas 8.5 Texas
UAB Southern Miss. 2.5 UAB

 

13-point Teasers (4 game parlays at 13-10)

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
North Carolina St. Wake Forest 4 NC St.
Florida South Carolina 20 S. Car.
BYU Massachusetts 27 UMass
Troy Georgia Southern 14.5 Ga. Southern

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Tennessee Kentucky 7 Kentucky
Colorado Washington St. 7 Washington St.
Louisiana Georgia St. 1 Louisiana
South Alabama UL-Monroe 7.5 UL-Monroe

 

Money Line Parlay (@ +152)

Must Win Must Lose
Ohio U Miami (O)
Northern Illinois Toledo

 

Recommended Parlay from our Subscriber JuJu 85 from Santa Clarita, CA

This parlay features two underdogs and plays at +1355, which is good enough for us to approve.

Must Win Must Lose
South Carolina Florida
Kansas Kansas St.

 

N F L

13-point Teasers (4 game parlays at 13-10)

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Detroit Chicago 6.5 Chicago
Kansas City Arizona 3.5 Kansas City
Tennessee New England 6.5 New England
Jacksonville Indianapolis 10 Indianapolis

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Oakland L.A. Chargers 3 L.A. Chargers
Miami Green Bay 3 Green Bay
Seattle L.A. Rams 3 L.A. Rams
Dallas Philadelphia 6.5 Philadelphia

 

Team Team Total Pick
Chicago Detroit 31.5 Over
Cincinnati New Orleans 41 Over
Cleveland Atlanta 37.5 Over
Buffalo N.Y. Jets 24 Over

Remember this: We issue these picks strictly for entertainment purposes only and do not wager real money on our selections.  We advise you to do the same.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 5, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 10: November 8-12, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Pittsburgh Carolina 5.5 6.1 5.2
Chicago Detroit 7.3 7.0 8.1
Cincinnati New Orleans -7.6 -7.5 -8.1
Cleveland Atlanta -5.5 -5.1 -5.0
Green Bay Miami 7.2 8.2 6.8
Indianapolis Jacksonville 1.6 0.8 1.8
Kansas City Arizona 14.8 16.1 15.7
L.A. Rams Seattle 7.8 8.6 7.6
N.Y. Jets Buffalo 8.9 8.3 8.9
Oakland L.A. Chargers -11.0 -11.8 -11.9
Philadelphia Dallas 5.9 6.2 6.3
Tampa Bay Washington -0.4 0.4 0.1
Tennessee New England -4.3 -4.7 -5.0
San Francisco N.Y. Giants 3.3 4.0 3.6

 

Home Visitor Total
Pittsburgh Carolina 47
Chicago Detroit 48.5
Cincinnati New Orleans 51
Cleveland Atlanta 49.5
Green Bay Miami 46.5
Indianapolis Jacksonville 45
Kansas City Arizona 47
L.A. Rams Seattle 49
N.Y. Jets Buffalo 38.5
Oakland L.A. Chargers 44.5
Philadelphia Dallas 41.5
Tampa Bay Washington 49
Tennessee New England 42
San Francisco N.Y. Giants 43

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings 

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 105.8 106.3 106.1 106.1 23 7-2
N. Y. Jets 97.1 96.5 96.8 96.8 22.5 3-6
Miami 95.4 95.0 95.3 95.2 22 5-4
Buffalo 90.3 90.2 89.9 90.1 16 2-7
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 106.2 106.4 106.2 106.3 23 5-2-1
Baltimore 102.7 103.0 102.6 102.8 21 4-5
Cincinnati 98.5 98.8 98.5 98.6 23.5 5-3
Cleveland 94.3 94.5 94.8 94.5 24 2-6-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Houston 100.7 100.8 100.9 100.8 24 6-3
Jacksonville 99.8 99.5 99.7 99.6 19 3-5
Tennessee 98.4 98.6 98.1 98.4 19 4-4
Indianapolis 98.5 97.3 98.4 98.1 26 3-5
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 107.9 108.4 108.5 108.3 28 8-1
LA Chargers 103.3 104.1 103.7 103.7 23.5 6-2
Denver 98.9 98.5 98.2 98.5 21 3-6
Oakland 90.3 90.3 89.8 90.1 21 1-7
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 102.3 102.5 102.1 102.3 22 4-4
Dallas 99.5 99.3 98.7 99.2 19.5 3-5
Washington 98.1 97.2 98.1 97.8 22 5-3
N.Y. Giants 95.2 95.0 95.1 95.1 20.5 1-7
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Chicago 103.9 103.7 104.6 104.1 23 5-3
Minnesota 102.3 102.5 102.2 102.3 21.5 5-3-1
Green Bay 99.6 100.2 99.1 99.6 24.5 3-4-1
Detroit 99.2 99.2 99.0 99.1 25.5 3-5
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 109.1 109.3 109.7 109.4 27.5 7-1
Carolina 103.7 103.3 104.0 103.7 24 6-2
Atlanta 102.8 102.7 102.8 102.7 25.5 4-4
Tampa Bay 95.2 95.1 95.7 95.3 27 3-5
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 107.3 108.0 107.4 107.6 27.5 8-1
Seattle 102.5 102.4 102.8 102.6 21.5 4-4
San Francisco 95.6 96.0 95.7 95.8 22.5 2-7
Arizona 96.1 95.3 95.8 95.7 19 2-6

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Kansas City
2 New England
3 Pittsburgh
4 Houston
5 L.A. Chargers
6 Cincinnati

 

NFC Seeding
1 New Orleans
2 L.A. Rams
3 Chicago
4 Philadelphia
5 Carolina
6 Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round
Pittsburgh over Cincinnati
L.A. Chargers over Houston
Chicago over Minnesota
Carolina over Philadelphia

 

Divisional Round
L.A. Chargers over Kansas City
Pittsburgh over New England
New Orleans over Carolina
L.A. Rams over Chicago

 

Conference Championship
L.A. Chargers over Pittsburgh
L.A. Rams over New Orleans

 

Super Bowl 53
L.A. Rams over L.A. Chargers

 

October 31, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for November 1-5, 2018

We have received numerous emails from our regular subscribers over the last fortnight.  So many of you want to become part of the Land Sharps.  We are flattered that you want to contribute here.  The five Land Sharps chosen to be  special guests on the PiRate Ship all have long-time personal relationships with the Captain.

Assuming there is a 2019 season for the PiRate Ratings, and who knows what one year into the future might bring, we hope to commence with a special forum that will allow you the reader to send us your picks on Mondays and Tuesdays, and we will then issue a composite of the most popular picks.  This gives you the rest of this season to test your systems so you can be ready to participate next year.

Our Land Sharps continue to post a winning spread record for the season.  All five of these experts are above the 52.5% mark that returns a profit on investment.  All five are on pace to beat the annual return of the S&P 500, as in just 9 weeks, they have an annualized return between 26% and 70%, with a congregated return of 54.4%!  The best rate of return for the S&P 500 in any of the last 30 years was 33.4% in 1997.  The highest one year gain ever was 53.99%, so our Land Sharps are currently beating the highest ever one year return of the top investment index in the nation!

Let’s hope this praise isn’t a jinx.  This is November.  In November, the Underdogs have their day.  People around the ship call this “No Fave November.”  2018 has been a year of the Dog, because 23 of the 55 underdogs last week not only covered against the spread, they won outright in upsets.  For the season, 31 double-digit Dogs have won outright.  Four of the 31 were underdogs by 3 or more touchdowns.  Better yet, all of our Land Sharps pick only college games, which means Todd Gurley cannot cost you a lot of lost investment when he takes a dive at the five yard line rather than score and allow his team to cover.

Here are this week’s Land Sharp picks

1–Buckeye Michelle   Season: 21-15-1  ROI: 12.2%

North Carolina +7 vs. Georgia Tech

Virginia Tech +2 vs. Boston College

Florida Int’l. -3 vs. Florida Atlantic

Nebraska +19 vs. Ohio St.

Iowa +3 vs. Purdue

Penn St. +10.5 vs. Michigan

Army -7 vs. Air Force

 

2–Stewed Meat  Season: 29-21-0  ROI: 11.8%

Temple +10.5 vs. Central Florida

South Alabama +16 vs. Arkansas St.

Louisiana-Monroe +7.5 vs. Georgia Southern

UTEP +1 vs. Rice

Florida Int’l. -3 vs. Florida Atlantic

 

3–Dean615  Season: 21-16-1  ROI: 11.6%

Nebraska +19 vs. Ohio St.

Iowa +3 vs. Purdue

Penn St. +10.5 vs. Michigan

Pittsburgh +7.5 vs. Virginia

Texas A&M +4 vs. Auburn

 

4. Friday Dog 13  Season 24-19-1  ROI: 7.0%

South Carolina Pk. vs. Ole Miss

East Carolina +13 vs. Memphis

West Virginia +2 vs. Texas

Iowa +3 vs. Purdue

Northwestern +9.5 vs. Notre Dame

 

5. Cal Gal Tiffany  Season 24-20-0  ROI: 4.5%

Army -7 vs. Air Force

West Virginia +2 vs. Texas

Arizona St. +7.5 vs. Utah

Oregon -7.5 vs. UCLA

Stanford +10 vs. Washington

California +10.5 vs. Washington St.

Hawaii +18.5 vs. Utah St.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Selections

COLLEGE PICKS

10-Point Teasers 3 teams @ 11-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Iowa St. Kansas 4 Iowa St.
Air Force Army 3 Army
Eastern Michigan Central Michigan 3.5 Eastern Michigan
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Wyoming San Jose St. 3.5 Wyoming
Illinois Minnesota 0.5 Minnesota
Cincinnati Navy 3 Cincinnati
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Boston College Virginia Tech 12 Virginia Tech
Michigan Penn St. 20.5 Penn St.
Missouri Florida 4 Florida
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Houston SMU 3.5 Houston
Northwestern Notre Dame 1 Notre Dame
Florida Atlantic Florida Int’l. 7 Florida Int’l.

 

13-Point Teaser 4 @ 13-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Northern Illinois Akron 19.5 Akron
Middle Tennessee Western Kentucky 0.5 Middle Tennessee
Kentucky Georgia 4 Georgia
Rice UTEP 14 UTEP

 

Money Line Parlays
3 Teams @ +172
Must Win Must Lose
Florida Int’l. Florida Atlantic
Georgia Kentucky
Notre Dame Northwestern
3 Teams @ +125
Must Win Must Lose
Florida Missouri
Minnesota Illinois
Middle Tennessee Western Kentucky
4 Teams @+180
Must Win Must Lose
Syracuse Wake Forest
Army Air Force
Eastern Michigan Central Michigan
Wyoming San Jose St.
2 Teams @+800 [Big Payout on 2 Upsets]
Must Win Must Lose
Texas A&M Auburn
Arizona St. Utah

 

NFL PICKS

10-Point Teasers 3 @ 11-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
San Francisco Oakland 13 Oakland
Chicago Buffalo Pk Chicago
Tampa Bay Carolina 3.5 Carolina
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Cleveland Kansas City 1.5 Kansas City
Washington Atlanta 12 Atlanta
Green Bay New England 4.5 New England

 

13-point Teasers 4 @ 13-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Minnesota Detroit 18 Detroit
Baltimore Pittsburgh 16 Pittsburgh
Seattle L.A. Chargers 15 L.A. Chargers
Houston Denver 9 Denver
Team 1 Team 2 Total Pick
San Francisco Oakland 32.5 Over
Minnesota Detroit 35.5 Over
Cleveland Kansas City 38.5 Over
Miami N.Y. Jets 32 Over
Team 1 Team 2 Total Pick
Baltimore Pittsburgh 57.5 Under
Washington Atlanta 33.5 Over
Seattle L.A. Chargers 35 Over
New England Green Bay 66.5 Under

Remember as always: All selections you see here on this site are strictly for entertainment purposes only.  None of the Land Sharps actually wager money on their selections, and the Captain and sailors on the PiRate ship do not wager money on their picks.  We recommend you follow our lead.

Coming Friday: Our final analytical look at how the Mid-term elections look based on our unique mathematical formula used when analyzing other political pollsters.

We handicap each of 10 major pollsters, adjusting their polls by their percentage bias from the most recent elections.  We then apply our own biased formula similar to the PiRate Bias Ratings.  By Bias, we are talking about mathematical bias and not political bias.  Our objective is to be accurate and not to be political.  We make no claims to how accurate these polls will be.  So, please vote and pay no attention to our predictions when it comes to making your own personal decisions.  The objective in voting is to vote for the candidates that best represent your views and beliefs, and not to care what our views and beliefs may be or how accurate our statistical analysis may be.  Just don’t vote for the Easter Bunny, the Man in the Moon, or Lassie, three actual write-ins in local elections in this area in the past.  If you don’t like your candidate choices and wish to write-in a candidate (that will not count if they have not qualified as a write-in), at least write in the name of a famous person that you respect for their opinions and beliefs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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