PiRate Ratings NFL For Week 9–November 3-7, 2022

This Week’s Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Houston	Philadelphia	-15.5	-13.4	-15.0
Atlanta	LA Chargers	1.1	0.9	1.8
Chicago	Miami	-2.2	-1.9	-1.7
Cincinnati	Carolina	12.2	11.5	11.8
Detroit	Green Bay	-6.6	-5.5	-6.0
Jacksonville	Las Vegas	-3.6	-2.6	-2.8
New England	Indianapolis	5.6	6.2	6.7
N.Y. Jets	Buffalo	-12.3	-11.7	-12.3
Washington	Minnesota	-1.9	-2.5	-2.4
Arizona	Seattle	2.3	2.5	1.1
Tampa Bay	LA Rams	6.3	5.8	6.0
Kansas City	Tennessee	14.6	13.8	14.3
New Orleans	Baltimore	1.2	0.4	0.7

This Week’s Totals

Home	Visitor	Total
Houston	Philadelphia	42
Atlanta	LA Chargers	55
Chicago	Miami	39.5
Cincinnati	Carolina	44.5
Detroit	Green Bay	47
Jacksonville	Las Vegas	47.5
New England	Indianapolis	41.5
N.Y. Jets	Buffalo	46
Washington	Minnesota	44
Arizona	Seattle	47.5
Tampa Bay	LA Rams	43
Kansas City	Tennessee	49.5
New Orleans	Baltimore	45

Teams With Bye Weeks

Cleveland

Pittsburgh

Denver

Dallas

N.Y. Giants

San Francisco

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Buffalo	114.1	114.0	114.1	114.0	23	6-1
New England	101.3	101.4	102.0	101.6	21	4-4
N.Y. Jets	99.8	100.3	99.8	100.0	23	5-3
Miami	98.7	98.9	98.6	98.7	20.5	5-3
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Cincinnati	103.9	103.4	103.7	103.7	23	4-4
Baltimore	103.6	103.3	103.6	103.5	22	5-3
Cleveland	100.8	100.0	100.2	100.3	23.5	3-5
Pittsburgh	95.7	95.4	95.5	95.5	20.5	2-6
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Tennessee	99.5	99.9	99.8	99.7	20	5-2
Indianapolis	98.6	98.3	98.2	98.4	20.5	3-4-1
Jacksonville	95.2	96.2	95.5	95.6	22.5	2-6
Houston	89.4	91.1	90.0	90.1	19.5	1-5-1
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	111.1	110.7	111.1	111.0	29.5	5-2
Las Vegas	101.8	101.8	101.3	101.6	25	2-5
Denver	99.5	100.2	98.7	99.5	15.5	3-5
LA Chargers	97.1	97.8	96.9	97.3	28.5	4-3
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Philadelphia	107.4	107.0	107.4	107.3	22.5	7-0
Dallas	106.2	105.8	106.6	106.2	22	6-2
N.Y. Giants	95.6	96.6	96.5	96.2	19	6-2
Washington	96.0	95.3	95.7	95.7	19	4-4
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Green Bay	102.0	100.9	101.3	101.4	21.5	3-5
Minnesota	101.0	100.8	101.2	101.0	25	6-1
Chicago	93.4	94.0	93.9	93.8	19	3-5
Detroit	92.9	93.0	92.8	92.9	25.5	1-6
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Tampa Bay	103.8	102.9	102.9	103.2	22	3-5
New Orleans	101.8	100.8	101.3	101.3	23	3-5
Atlanta	95.2	95.7	95.8	95.5	26.5	4-4
Carolina	94.2	94.5	94.4	94.4	21.5	3-5
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
San Francisco	103.9	104.1	104.4	104.1	20.5	4-4
LA Rams	100.6	100.0	99.8	100.1	21	3-4
Seattle	98.1	98.3	99.6	98.7	23	5-3
Arizona	97.5	97.8	97.7	97.7	24.5	3-5

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1	Buffalo
2	Kansas City
3	Baltimore
4	Tennessee
5	Miami
6	N.Y. Jets
7	New England
NFC Seeding
1	Philadelphia
2	Minnesota
3	Seattle
4	Atlanta
5	Dallas
6	N.Y. Giants
7	San Francisco

Wildcard Round
Kansas City over New England
Baltimore over N.Y. Jets
Miami over Tennessee
Minnesota over San Francisco
Seattle over N.Y. Giants
Dallas over Atlanta
Divisional Round
Buffalo over Miami
Kansas City over Baltimore
Philadelphia over Dallas
Seattle over Minnesota
Conference Championship
Buffalo over Kansas City
Philadelphia over Seattle
Super Bowl 57 (Glendale, AZ)
Philadelphia over Buffalo

PiRate Picks for December 4-7, 2020

A Day Late — Hopefully Not A Dollar Short

We are publishing our most popular weekly feature at the PiRate Ratings a day later than normal. Four weeks of issuing some interesting parlays that we had a lot of faith in as winners only to see the games cancel the day that we published them forced us to take an extra 24 hours to try to eliminate the chances that we would see five parlays become void just after putting them out on this forum. Additionally, we tried to avoid games that involved teams that have forewarned that even as late as Friday afternoon, they could decide not to play. Also, there is the case of one team that is in danger of not having enough scholarship players remaining. Their choices would be to fold up operations for the year or play under the 53-man (or in this case 53-man and woman) limit.

Last week, we broke even, which is no fun. Our winning week was just a minute from being guaranteed, until the Baltimore Ravens scored at the end to make that game a push. It happens.

This week, we are stressing money line parlays paying off at better than even money odds. November was very kind to us in these plays, as we made a big fat profit on these better than +100 odds games. We are only going with one NFL selection, but in our statistical minds, it is our best parlay of the entire season–kiss of death!

Before looking at our selections for the week, please remember, that we have lost no money this year or any past year when issuing these selections, because we NEVER wager a penny on them. All of our picks are made with imaginary money at an imaginary book. We do know from your feedback that many of you actually use this site for wagering advice, but we don’t understand why. If you want to throw away hard-earned money because of something you read here, why not just donate that amount to a worthy charity. Our favorite charity with the five lasses that help me here on the PiRate ship is “Save A Fox” in Faribault, Minnesota: https://www.saveafox.org/.

Enjoy the selections, and the way to enjoy them is by keeping your money in your wallet.

College Money Line Parlays
1. 2-teams at +107.96
Must Win	Opponent	Odds
Miami (Fla.)	Duke	+107.96
Missouri	Arkansas
2. 3-teams at +145.28
Must Win	Opponent	Odds
Western Mich.	Eastern Mich.
Washington	Stanford	;+145.28
Cincinnati	Tulsa
3. 2-teams at +173.41
Must Win	Opponent	Odds
Texas A&M	Auburn	+173.41
Central Mich.	Ball St.
4. 3-teams at +124.20 CANCELLED!
Must Win	Opponent	Odds
Kentucky	S. Carolina
Buffalo (BU was en route to Ohio)	Ohio	+124.20
Iowa St.	West Va.
5. 3-teams at +153.92
Must Win	Opponent	Odds
Toledo	N. Illinois
San Diego St.	Colorado St.	+153.92
NC St.	Georgia Tech
6. College 10-point Teaser at -110
Selection	Opponent	Spread
TCU	Oklahoma St.	+11
Nebraska	Purdue	+11
Memphis	Tulane	+11.5
7. College 10-point Teaser at -110
Selection	Opponent	Spread
Fla. Atlantic	Ga. Southern	+12.5
San Jose St.	Hawaii	+11
Oklahoma	Baylor	-11.5
8. College 10-point Teaser at -110
Selection	Opponent	Spread
Nevada	Fresno St.	+3.5
Oregon St.	Utah	+21.5
USC	Washington St.	-2.5
9. NFL 10-point Teaser at -110
Selection	Opponent	Spread
Minnesota	Jacksonville	Pk
Miami	Cincinnati	-1.5
Seattle	N.Y. Giants	-0.5

PiRate Ratings–NFL Football For Week 7: October 22-26, 2020

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Philadelphia	N.Y. Giants	6.2	5.5	5.8
Arizona	Seattle	-0.9	-1.6	-1.0
Atlanta	Detroit	5.2	4.1	4.9
Cincinnati	Cleveland	-3.4	-3.0	-3.6
Denver	Kansas City	-7.2	-7.9	-7.5
Houston	Green Bay	-2.0	-2.3	-2.2
LA Chargers	Jacksonville	9.7	10.2	10.9
Las Vegas	Tampa Bay	-3.5	-3.0	-3.9
N.Y. Jets	Buffalo	-10.9	-10.7	-12.1
New England	San Francisco	-0.5	-0.1	-0.7
New Orleans	Carolina	7.6	7.8	7.4
Tennessee	Pittsburgh	-1.3	-1.8	-1.4
Washington	Dallas	-0.9	-0.9	-0.7
LA Rams	Chicago	3.4	3.7	3.4

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

Home	Visitor	Total
Philadelphia	N.Y. Giants	48
Arizona	Seattle	57
Atlanta	Detroit	55.5
Cincinnati	Cleveland	49
Denver	Kansas City	41
Houston	Green Bay	50
LA Chargers	Jacksonville	41.5
Las Vegas	Tampa Bay	57.5
N.Y. Jets	Buffalo	37
New England	San Francisco	44.5
New Orleans	Carolina	54.5
Tennessee	Pittsburgh	45
Washington	Dallas	48
LA Rams	Chicago	42

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	100.6	100.3	100.4	100.4	19.5	2-3
Buffalo	100.2	100.8	100.1	100.4	18.5	4-2
Miami	99.8	100.9	99.7	100.1	27	3-3
N. Y. Jets	87.4	88.1	86.0	87.2	18.5	0-6
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	109.6	109.6	110.0	109.7	25.5	5-1
Pittsburgh	104.6	105.2	105.1	105.0	19	5-0
Cleveland	99.2	99.3	99.7	99.4	25	4-2
Cincinnati	94.4	94.8	94.6	94.6	24	1-4-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Indianapolis	102.3	102.2	102.1	102.2	22	4-2
Tennessee	101.8	101.9	102.2	102.0	26	5-0
Houston	100.1	99.7	100.1	100.0	26.5	1-5
Jacksonville	90.9	90.5	90.4	90.6	21	1-5
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	108.5	109.0	109.0	108.8	25	5-1
Las Vegas	100.5	100.8	100.4	100.6	26	3-2
Denver	99.3	99.1	99.5	99.3	16	2-3
LA Chargers	98.1	98.2	98.8	98.4	20.5	1-4
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Philadelphia	97.7	97.6	97.3	97.5	24.5	1-4-1
Dallas	95.4	95.3	94.7	95.1	27	2-4
N.Y. Giants	93.0	93.5	92.9	93.2	23.5	1-5
Washington	92.5	92.4	92.0	92.3	21	1-5
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Green Bay	103.6	103.5	103.9	103.7	23.5	4-1
Chicago	101.4	101.1	101.8	101.4	17	5-1
Minnesota	98.0	97.7	97.9	97.8	25.5	1-5
Detroit	96.7	96.8	96.7	96.7	26.5	2-3
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Tampa Bay	106.5	106.3	106.7	106.5	31.5	4-2
New Orleans	105.3	104.8	105.0	105.0	28.5	3-2
Carolina	99.7	99.0	99.6	99.5	26	3-3
Atlanta	99.9	98.9	99.5	99.4	29	1-5
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Seattle	104.8	105.3	105.0	105.1	29	5-0
LA Rams	102.8	102.7	103.2	102.9	25	4-2
San Francisco	103.0	102.5	103.1	102.9	25	3-3
Arizona	102.5	102.2	102.6	102.4	28	4-2

PiRate Ratings Picks For December 31-January 5, 2019

Happy New Year to all our readers

 

This should be the year where we all see clearly.  2020 isn’t 2010 or 2005 when we could all be quite far-sighted, but after this year, we all become nearsighted.  We will be blind in another 70 years!

If that looks like nonsense to you, then you should consider that what follows makes the above look like rocket science.

Once again, we are issuing picks against the spread as entertainment purposes only.  These are not our more scientific Davey19 picks that enjoyed an experimental winning season.  So, please do not wager real money based on what you see below.

Because games are now down to a minimum, we do not have any great teaser or money line parlays through Sunday’s playoff games.  We are going with straight margin selections.  Enjoy, but in order to enjoy, you should keep your wallet in your pockets.

 

 

College Bowl Games

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Virginia Tech	Kentucky	2.5	Va. Tech
Arizona St.	Florida St.	4	Florida St.
Wyoming	Georgia St.	7.5	Georgia St.
Utah	Texas	7.5	Texas
Wisconsin	Oregon	3	Oregon
Tennessee	Indiana	2	Tennessee

 

NFL Wildcard Playoffs

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Houston	Buffalo	3	Buffalo
New England	Tennessee	4.5	New England
Seattle	Philadelphia	2.5	Philadelphia

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 17: December 29, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

 

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Baltimore	Pittsburgh	13.8	13.6	14.0
Buffalo	N.Y. Jets	8.3	8.6	9.4
Carolina	New Orleans	-14.7	-13.4	-13.7
Cincinnati	Cleveland	-4.1	-4.5	-4.3
Dallas	Washington	16.0	15.4	15.5
Detroit	Green Bay	-7.2	-8.7	-9.2
Houston	Tennessee	1.4	1.7	1.7
Jacksonville	Indianapolis	-7.8	-8.5	-8.0
Kansas City	LA Chargers	9.2	10.2	10.9
Minnesota	Chicago	6.7	7.8	8.0
New England	Miami	21.7	22.0	21.6
N. Y. Giants	Philadelphia	-7.2	-5.7	-5.0
Tampa Bay	Atlanta	1.5	2.5	2.9
Denver	Oakland	7.1	7.6	7.3
LA Rams	Arizona	9.4	8.3	8.1
Seattle	San Francisco	-3.0	-3.9	-3.9

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

 

Home	Visitor	Total
Baltimore	Pittsburgh	44
Buffalo	N.Y. Jets	38
Carolina	New Orleans	53
Cincinnati	Cleveland	47.5
Dallas	Washington	41.5
Detroit	Green Bay	47.5
Houston	Tennessee	45
Jacksonville	Indianapolis	41
Kansas City	LA Chargers	51.5
Minnesota	Chicago	38.5
New England	Miami	48
N. Y. Giants	Philadelphia	49
Tampa Bay	Atlanta	55.5
Denver	Oakland	44.5
LA Rams	Arizona	51
Seattle	San Francisco	49.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	108.0	108.7	108.2	108.3	19.5	12-3
Buffalo	102.0	103.0	103.0	102.7	17	10-5
N. Y. Jets	94.7	95.4	94.6	94.9	21	6-9
Miami	89.4	89.7	89.6	89.6	28.5	4-11
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	111.7	111.9	112.7	112.1	25	13-2
Pittsburgh	98.9	99.4	99.7	99.3	19	8-7
Cleveland	97.8	97.9	97.8	97.8	24	6-9
Cincinnati	92.7	92.4	92.5	92.5	23.5	1-14
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Houston	102.2	102.7	102.7	102.6	23.5	10-5
Tennessee	101.8	102.0	102.0	101.9	21.5	8-7
Indianapolis	100.1	100.9	100.3	100.4	23	7-8
Jacksonville	91.3	91.4	91.3	91.3	18	5-10
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	107.0	107.7	107.7	107.5	29.5	11-4
LA Chargers	100.4	100.0	99.3	99.9	22	5-10
Denver	99.0	99.3	99.1	99.1	19	6-9
Oakland	92.8	92.7	92.8	92.8	25.5	7-8
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	104.2	104.3	103.9	104.1	22	7-8
Philadelphia	101.9	100.7	100.5	101.0	23.5	8-7
N.Y. Giants	93.7	94.0	94.4	94.0	25.5	4-11
Washington	91.3	91.9	91.4	91.5	19.5	3-12
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	106.8	105.7	105.8	106.1	21.5	10-5
Green Bay	103.8	103.8	104.2	103.9	24	12-3
Chicago	101.1	98.9	98.8	99.6	17	7-8
Detroit	95.0	93.6	93.5	94.1	23.5	3-11-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	108.7	107.2	107.7	107.9	27	12-3
Tampa Bay	101.1	102.3	102.6	102.0	29.5	7-8
Atlanta	100.6	100.8	100.7	100.7	26	6-9
Carolina	93.0	92.8	93.0	92.9	26	5-10
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
San Francisco	107.2	107.9	108.1	107.7	26	12-3
LA Rams	104.5	103.6	104.0	104.0	26.5	8-7
Seattle	101.2	101.0	101.2	101.1	23.5	11-4
Arizona	96.1	96.3	96.9	96.4	24.5	5-9-1

 

 

 

Week 17 Playoff Scenarios

 

NFC

If San Francisco, New Orleans, and Green Bay all win, San Francisco is  the #1 seed, Green Bay the #2 seed, and New Orleans the #3 seed.

If Seattle beats San Francisco, then Green Bay will get #1 seed with win over Detroit.

If Seattle beats San Francisco, and Detroit beats Green Bay, then New Orleans gets #1 seed with a win over Carolina.

If Seatlle beats San Francisco, and Green Bay and New Orleans lose, Seattle gets the #1 seed.

Philadelphia wins the NFC East with a win over the Giants or a Dallas loss to Washington. Any ties in the standings would go to Dallas.

Minnesota is #6 seed regardless of week 17 results.

 

AFC

Houston has clinched the #1 seed in the AFC

New England clinches the #2 seed with a win over Miami or a Kansas City loss to the Chargers.

Houston can pass Kansas City for the #3 seed with a win over Tennessee and a loss by Kansas City.

Buffalo is the #5 seed regardless of week 17 results.

Tennessee wins the #6 seed if they beat Houston, or with a loss with Pittsburgh losing to Baltimore while both Oakland and Indianapolis do not win.

Pittsburgh wins the #6 seed only if they win and the Titans lose.

Oakland can clinch the #6 seed with a win over Denver, plus losses by Tennessee and Pittsburgh and Indianapolis beating Jacksonville.

 

PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

 

What are the chances that the Oakland Raiders, in their last season playing in Oakland, could sneak into the NFL Playoffs?  It ranges from + or – 10-15% depending on which advanced metric expert you listen to.  We’re sabermetric experts that do not perform these type of metrics on pro football.

The way we look at things, Baltimore has nothing to gain this week against Pittsburgh in their season finale.  Their key players should play little or not at all.  Can the Steelers with poor quarterback play rise up and beat the Ravens’ reserves if they couldn’t beat the Jets last week?

Tennessee has now dropped two games in a row to playoff teams in Houston and New Orleans, both at home.  Houston may have a chance to move up to a #3 seed if Kansas City is upset earlier in the day.  

Oakland closes out regular season play at Denver, where the Broncos have nothing to play for in Week 17.

Indianapolis is playing solely to get to 8-8, while Jacksonville has nothing to play for in Week 17.

We think Oakland’s chances to sneak in as the final playoff team is considerably better than 15%.  In fact, just because it would make such a great story, we are going to select the Raiders as our 6th seed to set up a probably Oakland finale against their most hated rivals.

 

AFC Seeding
1	Baltimore
2	New England
3	Kansas City
4	Houston
5	Buffalo
6	Oakland
NFC Seeding
1	Green Bay
2	New Orleans
3	Seattle
4	Philadelphia
5	San Francisco
6	Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round

Kansas City over Oakland

Buffalo over Houston

Minnesota over Seattle

San Francisco over Philadelphia

Divisional Round

Buffalo over Baltimore

Kansas City over New England

Green Bay over Minnesota

New Orleans over San Francisco

Conference Championship

Kansas City over Buffalo

New Orleans over Green Bay

Super Bowl 54

New Orleans over Kansas City

 

 

PiRate Ratings Picks For December 21-24, 2019

Not Much, You?

As bowl season commences in college football, in most years, we would be gung ho to issue a multitude of picks against the spread and via the money line.  This is not the case this year.

 

In past years, public momentum has swung wildly to the favored teams enough to move the spreads well past what the favorites could consistently cover.  Both the spreads and money lines moved enough points to make betting the underdog late in the week or nearest the day of the game so much more advantageous.

It is only a hypothesis, but maybe since gambling has basically been legalized in the entire country, and because globally more people are seriously interested in trying to make a quick buck, the public no longer wagers  throws away money to the Sharps like they did in past years.

Normally, we would have quickly seen patterns where Team A opened as a 4 1/2 point favorite and after four or five days, the spread was up to 7 1/2 points.  Money Line favorites opened at -205 and inflated to -325.  At the same time, we rated the games close to a toss-up, so taking the points and wagering on the underdog at inflated money line odds made the outcome over the course of bowl season very profitable.

That just isn’t the case this year.  Almost all the games have been wagered on by the public in a much more reasonable manner.  It’s obvious that people are more apt to do their homework these days, and with the Internet offering volume after volume of information, the smart amateurs have wagered using intelligent strategies.  Thus, there just isn’t a lot of value in the first week of college bowl games.  We have only selected two bowl games out of the first week (through Christmas Eve).  On one of those two bowls, we are playing it two ways, but there is not a heavy dose of confidence in either bowl.

The NFL can be tricky in Week 17.  The teams that have little to play for may begin substituting more freely or even changing their lineups.  Teams near the bottom of the standings needing Joe Burrow in 2020 might see their personnel decisions change just enough to “tank” and lose.  Personally, our motto applies to the 2021 Draft, where some NFL team will “Be clever and tank for Trevor,” because Trevor Lawrence is a once in a generation superstar.  The team that can go 1-15 in 2020 might become a future New England Patriots if they can draft and acquire free agent quality offensive linemen in 2020 and then take Lawrence with the first pick in 2021, while stocking up on receivers to complement him.

That does little to nothing to help us this week, as Cincinnati can already print “Burrow” with the number “1” on a Bengal jersey.

There are a few serious playoff implication games this week, but for the most part, there are few “extra oomph” reasons to locate a lot of value.

The key playoff games this week include:

Tampa Bay vs. Houston–The Texans can clinch with a win over the Bucs, or a loss by the Titans to New Orleans.  Tampa Bay is a hot team finishing the year and has a chance to end up with a winning record.  Houston is in a sandwich situation having beaten the Titans in Nashville last week and having to face them again in Houston next week.

Tennessee vs. New Orleans–The Titans must win their final two games to clinch the AFC South, but they can still get in the playoffs as a Wildcard at 9-7.  For Tennessee’s situation, this is a must-win game.  New Orleans is playing for home field advantage, as they are locked in a tight race for best record in the NFC.  The Saints played on Monday night and now must play on the road.

New England vs. Buffalo–This game really won’t have much effect on the playoffs.  If Buffalo goes to Foxboro and wins, the two teams will be tied in the standings, but the Patriots hold the tiebreaker.  Only if New England then loses to the lowly Dolphins in Week 17, while Buffalo beats the Jets can the Bills win the AFC East.

Seattle vs. Arizona–The Seahawks are playing for both the NFC West title and a first round bye against a Cardinals team that cannot get the first pick of the draft and has little other to play for.  Of course, the entire world sees this and has moved the line appropriately.

Philadelphia vs. Dallas–This is the key game of the week.  Dallas is all of a sudden the darling of the football world after destroying the Rams last Sunday night.  Philadelphia may be the most overlooked playoff contender.  The winner of this game most likely earns the division title, because they both have relatively easy season finales.

Minnesota vs. Green Bay–The Monday night game will go far in determining the Black and Blue Division champion.  Depending on what happens on Saturday and Sunday, Minnesota could still be playing for their Wildcard life if the Rams beat the 49ers.  Green Bay could be playing for a first round bye and even home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.  Think of the difference in an NFC Championship Game in January being played at Lambeau Field, The Superdome, Levi’s Stadium, or Century Link Field.  There is quite a difference.  Lambeau could be 20 below zero.  Century Link could be deafening with new record decible levels.  The Superdome will be 72 degrees with a Brees but not a breeze.  Yours truly has kicked field goals of more than 50 yards inside the Superdome.  Depending on the outcomes of Saturday and Sunday, this game could have no considerations by Sunday night.

Now that we’ve given you reasons not to wager based on our selections, please read it one more time:  DO NOT wager real money on our selections that are only meant to entertain the reader.  We NEVER wager real money on our selections–we are math nerds and not Nevada Sharps.

 

PiRate Picks

Bowl Games

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Buffalo	Charlotte	7	Charlotte
SMU	Florida Atlantic	3	SMU

 

 

Money Line Upset Pick at +205

Winner	Loser
Charlotte	Buffalo

 

 

NFL Week 17 Selections

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Houston	Tampa Bay	3	Tampa Bay
LA Chargers	Oakland	7	Oakland
Dallas	Philadelphia	2.5	Philadelphia

 

 

Money Line: 2 Legs at +150

Winner	Loser
Miami	Cincinnati
Seattle	Arizona

 

 

Money Line: 3 Legs at +201

Winner	Loser
Pittsburgh	N. Y. Jets
Kansas City	Chicago
Atlanta	Jacksonville

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 16: December 21-23, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Tampa Bay	Houston	2.2	3.4	4.1
New England	Buffalo	9.2	8.9	8.4
San Francisco	LA Rams	5.9	7.7	7.7
Atlanta	Jacksonville	11.8	11.9	11.9
Tennessee	New Orleans	-4.0	-1.9	-2.4
Washington	N. Y. Giants	0.7	1.2	0.5
N. Y. Jets	Pittsburgh	-2.7	-2.7	-4.2
Miami	Cincinnati	-1.2	-0.8	-1.2
Indianapolis	Carolina	5.7	6.7	5.9
Cleveland	Baltimore	-10.8	-10.6	-11.5
LA Chargers	Oakland	12.7	12.7	12.1
Denver	Detroit	6.7	8.5	8.2
Seattle	Arizona	12.1	11.6	11.3
Philadelphia	Dallas	-0.6	-2.2	-2.3
Chicago	Kansas City	0.1	-2.9	-2.8
Minnesota	Green Bay	9.6	8.5	8.4

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

Home	Visitor	Total
Tampa Bay	Houston	54
New England	Buffalo	36.5
San Francisco	LA Rams	51.5
Atlanta	Jacksonville	44
Tennessee	New Orleans	46.5
Washington	N. Y. Giants	43
N. Y. Jets	Pittsburgh	41
Miami	Cincinnati	50
Indianapolis	Carolina	49
Cleveland	Baltimore	49
LA Chargers	Oakland	47.5
Denver	Detroit	42.5
Seattle	Arizona	49
Philadelphia	Dallas	47.5
Chicago	Kansas City	47.5
Minnesota	Green Bay	46.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	108.1	108.8	108.3	108.4	19.5	11-3
Buffalo	101.9	102.9	102.9	102.6	17	10-4
N. Y. Jets	94.2	94.8	93.8	94.3	21.5	5-9
Miami	89.2	89.4	89.2	89.3	27.5	3-11
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	111.6	111.7	112.5	112.0	25	12-2
Pittsburgh	99.4	100.0	100.5	99.9	19.5	8-6
Cleveland	97.9	98.1	98.0	98.0	24	6-8
Cincinnati	92.9	92.7	92.9	92.8	22.5	1-13
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Tennessee	102.0	102.4	102.4	102.3	20.5	8-6
Houston	102.0	102.3	102.1	102.2	24	9-5
Indianapolis	97.9	98.7	98.1	98.2	23	6-8
Jacksonville	91.3	91.4	91.3	91.3	18	5-9
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	105.2	106.0	105.9	105.7	30	10-4
LA Chargers	102.0	101.7	101.1	101.6	22	5-9
Denver	98.9	99.2	98.9	99.0	19	5-9
Oakland	91.2	91.0	91.0	91.1	25.5	6-8
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	104.8	105.1	104.8	104.9	23	7-7
Philadelphia	101.3	99.9	99.6	100.2	24.5	7-7
N.Y. Giants	93.4	93.6	93.9	93.6	24.5	3-11
Washington	91.6	92.3	91.9	91.9	18.5	3-11
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	108.6	107.5	107.7	108.0	22	10-4
Green Bay	102.0	102.0	102.3	102.1	24.5	11-3
Chicago	102.9	100.6	100.6	101.4	17.5	7-7
Detroit	95.1	93.7	93.7	94.2	23.5	3-10-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	108.5	106.8	107.3	107.5	26	11-3
Tampa Bay	101.3	102.7	103.2	102.4	30	7-7
Atlanta	100.6	100.8	100.7	100.7	26	5-9
Carolina	95.2	95.0	95.2	95.1	26	5-9
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
San Francisco	107.3	108.1	108.4	107.9	25.5	11-3
LA Rams	104.4	103.4	103.7	103.8	26	8-6
Seattle	103.2	103.0	103.2	103.1	24	11-3
Arizona	94.1	94.3	94.9	94.4	25	4-9-1

 

Playoff Projections

 

AFC Seeding
1	Baltimore
2	New England
3	Kansas City
4	Houston
5	Buffalo
6	Pittsburgh

NFC Seeding
1	New Orleans
2	Seattle
3	Green Bay
4	Philadelphia
5	San Francisco
6	Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round

Kansas City over Pittsburgh

Buffalo over Houston

Green Bay over Minnesota

San Francisco over Philadelphia

Divisional Round

Baltimore over Buffalo

New England over Kansas City

New Orleans over San Francisco

Seattle over Green Bay

Conference Championship

Baltimore over New England

Seattle over New Orleans

Super Bowl 54

Seattle over Baltimore

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 14: December 5-9, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

 

Margins

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Chicago	Dallas	2.6	-0.6	-0.2
Atlanta	Carolina	3.3	3.5	2.8
Buffalo	Baltimore	-6.3	-5.3	-6.2
Cleveland	Cincinnati	8.0	8.4	8.1
Green Bay	Washington	13.6	13.0	13.7
Houston	Denver	8.1	8.0	8.1
Minnesota	Detroit	11.5	11.5	11.6
New Orleans	San Francisco	1.4	-1.4	-1.7
N. Y. Jets	Miami	8.5	8.8	8.1
Tampa Bay	Indianapolis	2.6	3.6	4.4
Jacksonville	LA Chargers	-4.3	-3.9	-3.5
Arizona	Pittsburgh	-3.6	-3.7	-3.6
New England	Kansas City	9.0	9.1	8.9
Oakland	Tennessee	-4.5	-5.2	-4.7
LA Rams	Seattle	4.2	3.0	3.1
Philadelphia	N. Y. Giants	12.1	10.4	9.7

 

Totals

 

Home	Visitor	Total
Chicago	Dallas	38
Atlanta	Carolina	51
Buffalo	Baltimore	42
Cleveland	Cincinnati	45.5
Green Bay	Washington	42.5
Houston	Denver	41
Minnesota	Detroit	47.5
New Orleans	San Francisco	49
N. Y. Jets	Miami	48.5
Tampa Bay	Indianapolis	51.5
Jacksonville	LA Chargers	39.5
Arizona	Pittsburgh	44
New England	Kansas City	51.5
Oakland	Tennessee	44
LA Rams	Seattle	50.5
Philadelphia	N. Y. Giants	49.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	108.9	109.6	109.1	109.2	20.5	10-2
Buffalo	101.8	102.9	102.8	102.5	17.5	9-3
N. Y. Jets	94.9	95.6	94.7	95.1	21	4-8
Miami	89.5	89.7	89.5	89.6	27.5	3-9
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	111.1	111.1	112.0	111.4	24.5	10-2
Pittsburgh	99.5	100.0	100.4	99.9	20	7-5
Cleveland	99.2	99.5	99.5	99.4	23	5-7
Cincinnati	93.2	93.1	93.4	93.2	22.5	1-11
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Houston	103.1	103.4	103.2	103.3	23	8-4
Tennessee	100.9	101.4	101.3	101.2	19.5	7-5
Indianapolis	99.3	100.1	99.6	99.7	22.5	6-6
Jacksonville	93.6	93.8	93.6	93.7	18.5	4-8
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	102.9	103.5	103.2	103.2	31	8-4
LA Chargers	101.0	100.7	100.1	100.6	21	4-8
Denver	98.1	98.4	98.1	98.2	18	4-8
Oakland	93.4	93.3	93.6	93.4	24.5	6-6
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	103.3	103.9	103.5	103.6	21	6-6
Philadelphia	102.0	100.4	100.0	100.8	24.5	5-7
N.Y. Giants	91.9	92.0	92.2	92.0	25	2-10
Washington	91.4	92.2	91.8	91.8	18	3-9
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	106.4	105.0	105.2	105.6	23	8-4
Green Bay	102.0	102.2	102.5	102.2	24.5	9-3
Chicago	103.0	100.3	100.3	101.2	17	6-6
Detroit	97.4	96.0	96.1	96.5	24.5	3-8-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	107.4	105.5	105.8	106.2	25	10-2
Tampa Bay	98.9	100.6	101.0	100.2	29	5-7
Atlanta	97.5	97.5	97.1	97.3	25.5	3-9
Carolina	96.6	96.5	96.8	96.6	25.5	5-7
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
San Francisco	109.0	109.9	110.5	109.8	24	10-2
LA Rams	105.5	104.3	104.7	104.8	25.5	7-5
Seattle	104.3	104.3	104.6	104.4	25	10-2
Arizona	93.0	93.2	93.8	93.3	24	3-8-1

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

 

AFC Seeding
1	Baltimore
2	New England
3	Houston
4	Kansas City
5	Buffalo
6	Pittsburgh
NFC Seeding
1	Seattle
2	New Orleans
3	Green Bay
4	Dallas
5	San Francisco
6	Minnesota

Wildcard Round

Houston over Pittsburgh

Buffalo over Kansas City

Green Bay over Minnesota

San Francisco over Dallas

Divisional Round

Buffalo over Baltimore

Houston over New England

Seattle over San Francisco

New Orleans over Green Bay

Conference Championship

Houston over Buffalo

Seattle over New Orleans

Super Bowl 54

Seattle over Houston

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for The Wildcard Playoff Round: January 5-6, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Total
Houston	Indianapolis	2.0	2.7	2.1	49.5
Dallas	Seattle	-1.6	-1.9	-2.8	44.5
Baltimore	L.A. Chargers	2.6	2.4	2.4	43
Chicago	Philadelphia	5.5	5.5	6.4	44.5

The Wildcard Playoff Schedule

Saturday,  January 5, 2019

4:35 PM Eastern Standard Time

TV: ESPN

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

 

8:15 PM Eastern Standard Time

TV: Fox Network

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys

 

Sunday, January 6, 2109

1:05 PM Eastern Standard Time

TV: CBS

Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens

 

4:40 PM Eastern Standard Time

TV: NBC

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears

 

For the Divisional Playoff Round

The lower remaining seed in the AFC will play at Kansas City on Saturday, January 12, on NBC at 4:35 PM EST

 

The higher remaining seed in the NFC will play at the Los Angeles Rams on Saturday, January 12, on Fox Network at 8:15 PM EST

 

The higher remaining seed in the AFC will play at New England on Sunday, January 13, on CBS at 1:05 PM EST

 

The lower remaining seed in the NFC will play at New Orleans on Sunday, January 13, on Fox Network at 4:40 PM EST

Ratings of the Playoff Teams

Playoff Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg.	Total	W-L
New Orleans	112.3	112.3	112.3	112.3	27	13-3
Kansas City	106.8	107.0	106.6	106.8	30.5	12-4
LA Rams	106.5	106.7	106.3	106.5	29	13-3
Chicago	104.9	105.1	105.8	105.3	21.5	12-4
New England	105.0	105.1	104.9	105.0	22.5	11-5
Seattle	104.6	104.7	105.2	104.8	24	10-6
LA Chargers	104.3	105.0	104.8	104.7	23	12-4
Baltimore	104.5	104.9	104.7	104.7	20	10-6
Indianapolis	102.9	102.3	103.3	102.8	25.5	10-6
Houston	102.4	102.5	103.0	102.6	24	11-5
Philadelphia	102.4	102.6	102.5	102.5	23	9-7
Dallas	100.5	100.3	99.9	100.2	20.5	10-6

 

Note: The College Basketball Bracket Gurus will debut next week.  Most of the gurus are enjoying vacations this week and did not submit their data to us.

PiRate Ratings Selections for December 15-21 Bowls and NFL Week 15

The Return of the Land Sharps

After taking a week off to regroup, our five Land Sharps are ready to return to their hopefully winning ways after ending the season on a sour note.  As bowl season begins, Cal Gal Tiffany has opened a commanding lead in return on investment, maintaining a healthy double digit percentage profit that has been rather consistent for the last several weeks.  Tiffany admits that she knows more about numbers than football strategy, so maybe we can learn something from her.  She likes underdogs, and she likes numbers that are a half-point higher than typical game outcomes.  In other words, she has played a lot of 3 1/2, 7 1/2, 10 1/2, 14 1/2, and 17 1/2 point underdogs this year.  Tiffy believes the books know what they are doing in setting the lines, and there is no way she can outsmart them by trying to figure out which team is better or worse than the line.  She goes simply by the numbers, and it has helped her take a large lead in our little contest.

Stewed Meat is in second place, but Stewed has been playing the B-team of selections this year, because Stewed plays other picks for real and does well enough to make it a full-time profession in Nevada.

Buckeye Michelle is very unhappy.  She believes Ohio State is the only team that can beat Alabama, and her Buckeyes will not get that chance.  She also is unhappy, because she was in first place at the start of November and now has a record just above .500 with no profit.  Michelle and Tiffany are friendly rivals who have known each other for 10 years, and Tiffy has given Michie the business in recent weeks.  Now to make you more unhappy–these two ladies are what you would call “smokin’ hot” and unfortunately,  for all but two of the male gender, are taken.  The funny thing is their guys are not really into football, as they follow the Cleveland Indians and Oakland Athletics and nothing else.  It’s the two ladies that occupy their woman caves to watch their games.

Dean615 was in the lead for a few weeks, but Dean says that a heavy November schedule made it hard to find time to study.  Dean says that he has had ample time to study the bowls.  Dean is the ex-football player who played in three bowl games and knows what it is like and believes he knows which teams are there to play and which just want to collect their bling packages and start their off seasons.

Friday Dog 13 is the renegade of our Land Sharps.  He has played a lot more favorites than underdogs, and it worked until No Fave November.  The Autumn winds raided his bank account, and sent him into the red at the wrong time of the year.  Friday Dog has had extracurricular issues this Autumn and also has not had a ton of time to devote to the lines as of late, but he should be able to study the bowls with more time.  You will see his theme in his first set of picks.  He is a fan of Mid-America.

And what about the PiRates themselves?  We have been contrarians to the Land Sharps.  When the Land Sharps began the season hot and profitable, the PiRates were sinking like rocks.  Then, after we noticed that our NFL teaser picks kept winning consistently, we began to add more teaser selections, and the last 5 weeks have been somewhat profitable.  Hopefully, this isn’t the kiss of death talking about it and including more of these selections.

Let’s start with the Land Sharps and their picks for the first week of bowl games.  All five made three selections.  Four of the five took the same team, and three of the five took another team, so take this for what you believe it is worth.  Also, a majority of the picks were on the underdogs.

#1) Cal Gal Tiffany

Season: 40-30-0 57.1%

Return on Investment: 10.0%

Georgia Southern -1 1/2 vs. Eastern Michigan

Western Michigan +12 1/2 vs. BYU

Tulane -3 1/2 vs. Louisiana

 

#2) Stewed Meat

Season: 38-32-3  54.3%

Return on Investment: 3.8%

North Texas +8 vs. Utah St.

Middle Tennessee +7 1/2 vs. Appalachian St.

Western Michigan +12 1/2 vs. BYU

 

#3) Buckeye Michelle

Season: 33-30-1  52.4%

Return on Investment: 0.0%

San Diego St. +3 vs. Ohio U

Tulane -3 1/2 vs. Louisiana

Western Michigan +12 1/2 vs. BYU

 

#4) Dean615

Season: 31-29-2  51.7%

Return on Investment: -1.5%

South Florida +2 1/2 vs. Marshall

Tulane -3 1/2 vs. Louisiana

Western Michigan +12 1/2 vs. BYU

 

#5) Friday Dog 13

Season: 36-35-1  50.7%

Return on Investment: -3.5%

Northern Illinois +2 1/2 vs. UAB

Toledo -5 1/2 vs. Florida International

Ohio U -2 1/2 vs. San Diego St.

 

The PiRate Rating Picks

For the bowl season, we have been experimenting with playing the underdogs with money line selections.  It is our hypothesis that if one plays the same amount on every bowl game by taking the underdog and the best money line odds you can get, that it could be very profitable.  Since we play with imaginary currency in an imaginary bank account, it does not hurt to play $100 on every bowl game by taking the underdog and finding the best odds.  If we lose every game, we are out $0, and if it wins, and returns a profit, then maybe the public will have knowledge for the future.  Therefore, you will see us picking the underdog to win every bowl game (not playoffs) this year and shopping for the best odds.

Here are the selections for the first week of games.

Favorite	Underdog	Moneyline	Pick
Tulane	Louisiana	+155	Louisiana
Utah St.	North Texas	+275	North Texas
Fresno St.	Arizona St.	+167	Arizona St.
Georgia Southern	Eastern Michigan	+120	Eastern Michigan
Appalachian St.	Middle Tennessee	+235	Middle Tennessee
UAB	Northern Illinois	+125	Northern Illinois
Ohio U	San Diego St.	+135	San Diego St.
Marshall	South Florida	+125	South Florida
Toledo	Florida Int’l.	+195	Florida Int’l.
BYU	Western Michigan	+400	Western Michigan

NFL Teaser Picks to date:  26-12  68.4%

NFL	10-point Teasers
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Chicago	Green Bay	17	Green Bay
Minnesota	Miami	17.5	Miami
Baltimore	Tampa Bay	19.5	Tampa Bay
Team	Team	Total	Pick
Kansas City	L.A. Chargers	43	Over
Chicago	Green Bay	35	Over
Minnesota	Miami	34.5	Over

 

NFL	13-point Teasers
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Detroit	Buffalo	15.5	Buffalo
Tampa Bay	Baltimore	5	Baltimore
Atlanta	Arizona	23	Arizona
Cincinnati	Oakland	16	Oakland
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
San Francisco	Seattle	8.5	Seattle
New England	Pittsburgh	14.5	Pittsburgh
Philadelphia	L.A. Rams	4	L.A. Rams
Tennessee	N.Y. Giants	15.5	N.Y. Giants
Team	Team	Total	Pick
Houston	N.Y. Jets	28	Over
Cleveland	Denver	32.5	Over
Buffalo	Detroit	25	Over
Baltimore	Tampa Bay	60	Under
Team	Team	Total	Pick
Oakland	Cincinnati	33	Over
N.Y. Giants	Tennessee	30.5	Over
Washington	Jacksonville	49	Under
Indianapolis	Dallas	34	Over
Team	Team	Total	Pick
Seattle	San Francisco	57.5	Under
L.A. Rams	Philadelphia	40.5	Over
Arizona	Atlanta	31	Over
New Orleans	Carolina	65	Under

Remember that all of our selections on this site are strictly for entertainment purposes only.  We do not wager actual currency or coinage on these games.  We are purely a group of math statistics lovers that also love and played sports.  Please do not wager real money based only on what we publish here.