The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 12, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 15: December 14-18, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Indianapolis Denver 0.5 0.8 0.3 41
Detroit Chicago 6.2 6.5 5.7 45
Kansas City LA Chargers -1.7 -0.8 -2.0 46
N. Y. Giants Philadelphia -12.6 -10.6 -14.6 43
Carolina Green Bay 7.1 5.8 8.3 48
Minnesota Cincinnati 12.9 11.7 14.0 35
Buffalo Miami 2.4 2.8 2.7 41
Jacksonville Houston 11.1 10.8 11.8 44
New Orleans N. Y. Jets 16.2 16.0 16.6 47
Washington Arizona 5.4 5.5 5.3 47
Cleveland Baltimore -12.0 -11.7 -12.2 39
Seattle LA Rams 2.4 3.0 1.4 46
Pittsburgh New England 1.1 1.0 1.1 45
San Francisco Tennessee 0.2 0.0 0.7 45
Oakland Dallas -1.9 -0.9 -2.7 47
Tampa Bay Atlanta -4.5 -4.2 -4.4 48

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 107.8 107.9 107.9 107.8 22 10-3
Miami 96.5 96.5 96.1 96.4 21 6-7
Buffalo 95.9 96.3 95.9 96.0 20 7-6
N. Y. Jets 94.1 93.8 94.2 94.1 18 5-8
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 105.8 105.9 106.0 105.9 23 11-2
Baltimore 105.7 106.0 105.8 105.8 22 7-6
Cincinnati 95.6 96.4 95.2 95.8 17 5-8
Cleveland 91.2 91.8 91.1 91.3 17 0-13
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 102.7 102.6 102.8 102.7 22 9-4
Tennessee 97.7 97.8 97.3 97.6 22 8-5
Houston 94.6 94.7 94.1 94.5 22 4-9
Indianapolis 93.0 93.3 92.5 92.9 22 3-10
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Chargers 105.8 105.1 106.2 105.7 23 7-6
Kansas City 101.0 101.4 101.2 101.2 23 7-6
Oakland 97.5 98.1 96.7 97.4 23 6-7
Denver 95.0 94.9 94.8 94.9 19 4-9
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 107.4 106.0 108.8 107.4 25 11-2
Dallas 102.4 101.9 102.4 102.3 24 7-6
Washington 97.5 97.7 97.3 97.5 25 5-8
N.Y. Giants 92.8 93.4 92.2 92.8 18 2-11
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Minnesota 105.5 105.1 106.2 105.6 18 10-3
Detroit 100.3 100.6 100.0 100.3 27 7-6
Green Bay 99.4 99.9 98.7 99.3 21 7-6
Chicago 96.6 96.7 96.8 96.7 18 4-9
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 107.4 106.8 107.9 107.4 29 9-4
Atlanta 104.1 103.9 104.3 104.1 26 8-5
Carolina 103.5 102.7 104.0 103.4 27 9-4
Tampa Bay 97.2 97.2 97.4 97.3 22 4-9
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 104.9 104.4 105.5 104.9 25 9-4
Seattle 104.4 104.4 103.9 104.2 21 8-5
Arizona 95.7 95.6 95.5 95.6 22 6-7
San Francisco 94.4 94.3 94.5 94.4 23 3-10

NFL Playoff Projections

Beginning this week, we look forward predicting the outcomes of every game and then use the NFL tiebreaker system to forecast seeds.  Prior to week 15, we use only the PiRate Ratings themselves to estimate won-loss record.

This week, we have Seattle winning a tiebreaker over the Rams for the NFC West, with the Rams getting a wildcard, and we have the Saints winning a tiebreaker over the Panthers in the NFC South, with the Panthers getting the other wildcard.

In the AFC, we still show New England getting the top seed by virtue of a road win against the Steelers.  We have the Chargers edging the Chiefs in the AFC West, but we show KC getting the last playoff spot due to a possible 4-game collapse by Tennessee.

This is rather sketchy and only one possible outcome for the season.  Obviously, by this time next week, the probabilities will be drastically reduced with many key games.

AFC Seeding
1 New England
2 Pittsburgh
3 Jacksonville
4 LA Chargers
5 Baltimore
6 Kansas City
   
NFC Seeding
1 Philadelphia
2 Minnesota
3 New Orleans
4 Seattle
5 LA Rams
6 Carolina
Wildcard Round
Jacksonville over Kansas City
LA Chargers over Baltimore
New Orleans over Carolina
Seattle over LA Rams
 
Divisional Round
New England over LA Chargers
Jacksonville over Pittsburgh
Seattle over Philadelphia
Minnesota over New Orleans
 
Conference Championship
New England over Jacksonville
Minnesota over Seattle
 
Super Bowl 52
New England over Minnesota

 

 

 

 

 

 

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October 17, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 7: October 18-22, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Oakland Kansas City -1.6 -1.2 -2.4 42
Cleveland Tennessee -4.3 -3.9 -3.8 44
Indianapolis Jacksonville -2.2 -2.0 -2.7 49
Pittsburgh Cincinnati 7.2 7.0 7.0 36
Minnesota Baltimore 2.7 2.5 2.6 36
Miami N. Y. Jets 6.7 7.0 6.1 36
Buffalo Tampa Bay 3.9 4.5 4.4 45
Chicago Carolina -3.3 -2.6 -3.9 47
Green Bay New Orleans 2.3 3.6 1.7 56
LA Rams (London) Arizona -1.7 -2.1 -1.2 47
San Franciso Dallas -6.5 -6.4 -6.2 51
N. Y. Giants Seattle 1.9 1.6 2.1 34
LA Chargers Denver -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 43
New England Atlanta 3.9 4.6 3.6 53
Philadelphia Washington 6.7 5.9 7.4 49

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 104.3 104.9 104.0 104.4 23 4-2-0
Buffalo 100.5 100.6 101.0 100.7 21 3-2-0
Miami 97.3 97.2 96.9 97.1 18 3-2-0
N. Y. Jets 93.6 93.2 93.8 93.6 18 3-3-0
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 104.8 105.0 104.8 104.9 20 4-2-0
Baltimore 100.4 100.8 100.4 100.5 19 3-3-0
Cincinnati 100.1 100.5 100.2 100.3 16 2-3-0
Cleveland 91.1 91.6 91.2 91.3 19 0-6-0
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Houston 100.9 101.1 100.6 100.9 25 3-3-0
Jacksonville 98.4 98.6 98.2 98.4 24 3-3-0
Tennessee 98.4 98.4 98.0 98.3 25 3-3-0
Indianapolis 93.2 93.6 92.5 93.1 25 2-4-0
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 105.0 105.3 105.3 105.2 21 5-1-0
Denver 102.0 101.6 102.1 101.9 19 3-2-0
Oakland 100.5 101.1 99.9 100.5 21 2-4-0
LA Chargers 99.6 99.2 99.6 99.5 24 2-4-0
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 104.8 103.7 105.7 104.7 23 5-1-0
Dallas 102.3 101.8 102.1 102.1 26 2-3-0
N.Y. Giants 101.2 101.1 101.1 101.2 15 1-5-0
Washington 100.0 99.8 100.3 100.0 26 3-2-0
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Green Bay 102.3 102.7 102.1 102.4 25 4-2-0
Detroit 101.2 101.7 101.1 101.4 25 3-3-0
Minnesota 100.0 100.3 100.0 100.1 17 4-2-0
Chicago 94.7 95.0 94.6 94.8 21 2-4-0
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Atlanta 103.3 103.3 103.4 103.3 30 3-2-0
New Orleans 103.0 102.1 103.5 102.9 31 3-2-0
Carolina 101.1 100.5 101.5 101.0 26 4-2-0
Tampa Bay 99.6 99.1 99.6 99.4 24 2-3-0
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Seattle 102.9 103.0 102.5 102.8 19 3-2-0
Arizona 97.5 97.5 97.3 97.4 25 3-3-0
LA Rams 95.7 95.4 96.1 95.7 22 4-2-0
San Francisco 93.3 93.0 93.4 93.2 25 0-6-0

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Kansas City
2 New England
3 Pittsburgh
4 Houston
5 Denver
6 Miami
   
NFC Seeding
1 Philadelphia
2 Carolina
3 Los Angeles
4 Minnesota
5 Atlanta
6 Washington
Wildcard Round
Pittsburgh over Miami
Houston over Denver
Los Angeles over Washington
Atlanta over Minnesota
 
Divisional Round
Kansas City over Houston
Pittsburgh over New England
Philadelphia over Atlanta
Los Angeles over Carolina
 
Conference Championship
Kansas City over Pittsburgh
Philadelphia over Los Angeles
 
Super Bowl 52
Philadelphia over Kansas City

 

 

October 10, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 6: October 11-15, 2017

This Week’s NFL PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Carolina Philadelphia 0.2 0.5 -0.3 49
Houston Cleveland 12.4 12.4 11.8 43
N. Y. Jets New England -8.6 -9.7 -8.2 41
Atlanta Miami 10.9 10.8 11.7 49
New Orleans Detroit 2.4 0.8 2.6 54
Minnesota Green Bay -2.1 -2.3 -2.0 45
Baltimore Chicago 11.5 11.2 11.9 38
Washington San Francisco 11.2 11.1 11.6 51
Jacksonville LA Rams 10.2 10.4 10.1 46
Arizona Tampa Bay -0.3 0.6 -1.0 46
Kansas City Pittsburgh 5.7 5.4 6.4 43
Oakland LA Chargers 3.7 4.6 3.1 48
Denver N. Y. Giants 7.8 6.9 8.6 34
Tennessee Indianapolis 7.0 6.7 6.9 49

This Week’s NFL PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Buffalo 100.3 100.4 100.8 100.5 21
Miami 96.5 96.5 95.9 96.3 18
New England 104.7 105.3 104.4 104.8 23
N. Y. Jets 93.5 93.1 93.7 93.5 18
           
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Baltimore 101.8 102.0 102.0 101.9 18
Cincinnati 99.9 100.3 100.0 100.1 16
Cleveland 91.3 91.7 91.5 91.5 19
Pittsburgh 103.4 103.8 103.2 103.5 21
           
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Houston 100.7 101.0 100.3 100.7 24
Indianapolis 93.6 93.9 93.0 93.5 24
Jacksonville 100.2 100.2 100.2 100.2 24
Tennessee 98.0 98.1 97.5 97.9 25
           
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Denver 104.0 103.3 104.4 103.9 19
Kansas City 106.1 106.2 106.6 106.3 22
LA Chargers 99.2 98.8 99.2 99.1 25
Oakland 100.9 101.5 100.3 100.9 23
           
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Dallas 102.1 101.6 101.9 101.9 26
N.Y. Giants 99.2 99.4 98.8 99.2 15
Philadelphia 104.2 103.2 105.1 104.2 23
Washington 100.5 100.2 100.9 100.5 26
           
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Chicago 93.3 93.8 93.0 93.4 20
Detroit 102.4 103.0 102.5 102.7 24
Green Bay 103.9 104.3 103.7 104.0 28
Minnesota 99.7 100.0 99.7 99.8 17
           
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Atlanta 104.4 104.3 104.7 104.5 31
Carolina 101.4 100.7 101.8 101.3 26
New Orleans 101.8 100.8 102.1 101.6 30
Tampa Bay 100.2 99.5 100.5 100.1 23
           
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Arizona 96.9 97.1 96.4 96.8 23
LA Rams 93.4 93.3 93.6 93.4 22
San Francisco 92.8 92.6 92.8 92.7 25
Seattle 102.7 102.8 102.3 102.6 19

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Kansas City
2 New England
3 Jacksonville
4 Cincinnati
5 Denver
6 Baltimore
NFC Seeding
1 Philadelphia
2 Green Bay
3 Atlanta
4 Seattle
5 Carolina
6 Detroit
Wildcard Round
Baltimore over Jacksonville
Denver over Cincinnati
Atlanta over Detroit
Seattle over Carolina
 
Divisional Round
Kansas City over Baltimore
Denver over New England
Philadelphia over Seattle
Atlanta over Green Bay
 
Conference Championship
Kansas City over Denver
Philadelphia over Atlanta
 
Super Bowl 52
Kansas City over Philadelphia

 

October 3, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 4: October 4-8, 2017

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:48 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Tampa Bay New England -1.1 -2.5 -0.3 47
N. Y. Giants LA Chargers 3.6 4.1 3.3 40
Cincinnati Buffalo 2.5 2.7 1.9 37
Cleveland N. Y. Jets 1.7 2.4 1.8 40
Pittsburgh Jacksonville 11.6 11.5 11.7 45
Miami Tennessee 1.1 1.0 1.1 44
Indianapolis San Francisco 4.4 5.0 3.9 51
Philadelphia Arizona 6.5 5.1 7.7 46
Detroit Carolina 5.0 6.3 4.9 50
LA Rams Seattle -7.2 -7.5 -6.7 42
Oakland Baltimore 6.8 7.0 6.4 41
Dallas Green Bay 1.8 0.7 2.0 51
Houston Kansas City -1.7 -1.3 -2.5 42
Chicago Minnesota -3.9 -3.8 -4.4 37

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
New England 104.5 105.2 104.1 104.6 24
Buffalo 100.4 100.5 101.0 100.6 21
Miami 96.3 96.3 95.7 96.1 19
N. Y. Jets 93.2 92.8 93.3 93.1 19
           
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Pittsburgh 106.2 106.4 106.2 106.3 21
Cincinnati 99.8 100.2 99.8 100.0 16
Baltimore 99.7 100.0 99.7 99.8 18
Cleveland 91.9 92.3 92.2 92.1 21
           
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Houston 101.1 101.4 100.7 101.1 21
Tennessee 98.2 98.3 97.7 98.1 25
Jacksonville 97.7 97.9 97.5 97.7 24
Indianapolis 93.7 94.0 93.1 93.6 26
           
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Kansas City 105.7 105.8 106.2 105.9 21
Denver 103.8 103.1 104.2 103.7 19
Oakland 103.5 104.0 103.1 103.5 23
LA Chargers 99.2 98.8 99.1 99.0 25
           
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Dallas 102.4 101.8 102.3 102.2 25
Philadelphia 101.9 100.8 102.7 101.8 23
Washington 100.3 100.0 100.7 100.3 26
N.Y. Giants 99.2 99.4 98.9 99.2 15
           
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Green Bay 103.6 104.1 103.3 103.7 26
Detroit 102.9 103.5 103.1 103.2 24
Minnesota 99.7 100.0 99.8 99.8 17
Chicago 93.3 93.8 92.9 93.3 20
           
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Atlanta 104.2 104.1 104.5 104.3 31
New Orleans 101.6 100.6 101.9 101.4 30
Carolina 100.9 100.2 101.2 100.8 26
Tampa Bay 100.4 99.6 100.8 100.3 23
           
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Seattle 102.7 102.8 102.3 102.6 20
Arizona 98.9 99.2 98.5 98.9 23
LA Rams 93.4 93.3 93.6 93.4 22
San Francisco 92.7 92.5 92.7 92.6 25

PiRate Ratings Projected Playoffs

AFC

  1. Kansas City
  2. Pittsburgh
  3. New England
  4. Houston
  5. Denver
  6. Buffalo

NFC

  1. Atlanta
  2. Philadelphia
  3. Green Bay
  4. Seattle
  5. Carolina
  6. Los Angeles

Wildcard Round

New England over Buffalo

Houston over Denver

Green Bay over Los Angeles

Carolina over Seattle

 

Divisional Round

Kansas City over Houston

Pittsburgh over New England

Carolina over Atlanta

Philadelphia over Green Bay

 

Conference Championships

Kansas City over Pittsburgh

Philadelphia over Carolina

 

Super Bowl

Kansas City over Philadelphia

September 26, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 4: September 28-October 2, 2017

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:20 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Green Bay Chicago 10.8 11.4 10.6 46
Miami (London) New Orleans -3.0 -1.8 -3.6 52
New England Carolina 9.5 10.8 9.1 49
Dallas LA Rams 15.7 14.6 15.8 44
Minnesota Detroit 1.1 0.4 1.4 43
Houston Tennessee -0.1 0.1 -0.1 41
N. Y. Jets Jacksonville -2.5 -3.2 -2.5 43
Cleveland Cincinnati -1.2 -1.3 -1.0 37
Baltimore Pittsburgh -1.5 -1.7 -0.8 41
Atlanta Buffalo 10.3 9.5 10.4 53
Tampa Bay N. Y. Giants 3.7 2.8 4.5 38
LA Chargers Philadelphia 1.8 2.5 0.9 48
Arizona San Francisco 10.1 10.6 10.0 49
Denver Oakland 2.2 1.1 2.7 46
Seattle Indianapolis 9.1 8.9 8.7 44
Kansas City Washington 8.1 8.5 8.2 47

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
New England 105.7 106.4 105.5 105.8 24
Buffalo 98.6 99.0 99.0 98.9 22
Miami 97.6 97.7 97.1 97.5 21
N. Y. Jets 92.9 92.5 92.9 92.8 19
           
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Pittsburgh 104.6 105.0 104.3 104.7 22
Baltimore 101.2 101.3 101.5 101.3 19
Cincinnati 97.6 98.0 97.6 97.8 16
Cleveland 94.4 94.8 94.7 94.6 21
           
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Tennessee 101.2 101.3 100.7 101.1 25
Houston 98.1 98.4 97.7 98.1 16
Jacksonville 98.0 98.2 97.9 98.0 24
Indianapolis 95.4 95.7 95.1 95.4 25
           
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Kansas City 105.5 105.6 106.0 105.7 21
Oakland 104.3 104.8 104.0 104.4 26
Denver 103.5 102.8 103.8 103.4 20
LA Chargers 99.5 99.1 99.4 99.3 25
           
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Dallas 104.2 103.3 104.3 104.0 24
Philadelphia 101.2 100.1 102.0 101.1 23
Washington 100.4 100.1 100.8 100.4 26
N.Y. Giants 99.4 99.6 99.1 99.4 15
           
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Detroit 102.4 103.2 102.4 102.7 24
Green Bay 102.6 103.3 102.1 102.7 26
Minnesota 100.5 100.6 100.8 100.6 19
Chicago 94.2 94.5 94.0 94.2 20
           
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Atlanta 105.9 105.5 106.4 105.9 31
New Orleans 100.6 99.5 100.8 100.3 31
Tampa Bay 100.2 99.4 100.6 100.1 23
Carolina 99.2 98.5 99.3 99.0 25
           
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Seattle 101.0 101.1 100.3 100.8 19
Arizona 99.4 99.6 99.1 99.4 24
San Francisco 92.2 92.1 92.1 92.1 25
LA Rams 91.5 91.7 91.5 91.6 20

Our Official Statement on the Current Situation in the NFL

Neither side is right and neither side is wrong.  There is too much black and white in this world, and this is no different.  Life should not be an either or situation on everything that exists, but the human race has not evolved enough to get past this fact.

The problem is that neither side understands tactfulness, maturity, diplomacy, and statesmanship.  Maybe, consultants have advised the two factions to reduce the problem to childlike fighting, and that is sad if the populace can only understand issues when reduced to a childlike mentality.

Nevertheless, the problem is that an entertaining three-hour escape from the stress of the real world has now been altered into just another stressful afternoon.  The 6 members of the PiRate Ratings have decided that the situation has eliminated the needed escape that  NFL Football provided us–up to 56 years for our oldest contributor.  Thus, on Sunday, none of us attended or viewed a game.  Tickets went unused at Lambeau Field, LP Field, and U.S. Bank Stadium.  A fouth stadium, Firstenergy in Cleveland, will join this list this week.  As best as we can estimate, this is the first time since sometime in 1963 that at least once of us has failed to watch an NFL game.

We have received more emails than we can respond to this week, and we will refrain from giving out the email address for now, because it will take a couple weeks to reply to all of them.  But, it is obvious that you our reader are more than likely to stop watching and attending than to watch or attend.  Actually, we have yet to receive an email in support of the players, and we can only surmise that some of you that did not send us a message are still watching.

Feel free to comment in the comment section of this entry.  If you refrain from profanity and comment in a civil and intelligent manner, your comment will be accepted.  We will censor any profanity or below-the-belt comments.  We are a scientific/mathematic website more interested in the numbers than the individuals on either side of this issue.

For those that have not seen this unaltered, here are the exact words of the 1st Amendment of the Bill of Rights.

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances.

Why The Ratings Drop Does Matter

We have heard  many apologists proclaim that the drastic TV ratings drop had little or nothing to do with the current situation between the two opposing sides.  We have seen excuses such as “The Emmy Awards aired opposite SNF,” and “It was Oprah’s Debut on 60 Minutes.”

There is one telltale sign that tends to make us believe these apologies are off the mark.  While the ratings for the football games have dropped off the table, the ratings for the pre-game shows are actually up.  People are tuning in to the pre-game in greater numbers and then switching channels or turning the TV off before the kickoff.  This is a definite sign that the league has alienated a large number of fans, or maybe we should say former fans.  Turning the channel or turning off the TV in the middle of a time slot is considered a bigger deal than doing so at the top or bottom of the hour when programs change.  As a former journalist in radio and television, our founder understands the implications in local news when the ratings change during the weather segment or sports segment.

 

September 12, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 2: September 14-18, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Spreads & Totals

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Cincinnati Houston 3.5 2.9 4.5 31
Jacksonville Tennessee 2.2 1.4 3.1 47
Baltimore Cleveland 11.6 11.5 11.5 40
Carolina Buffalo 7.1 5.1 7.3 50
New Orleans New England -2.6 -4.6 -2.3 55
Indianapolis Arizona -1.5 -1.8 -1.8 53
Kansas City Philadelphia 6.7 8.2 6.1 43
Pittsburgh Minnesota 7.2 7.7 6.4 41
Tampa Bay Chicago 9.3 8.0 9.9 42
LA Chargers Miami 5.4 3.7 6.3 52
Oakland N. Y. Jets 16.0 17.6 15.6 46
LA Rams Washington -4.2 -3.5 -4.7 43
Denver Dallas -1.1 -0.1 -1.0 39
Seattle San Francisco 13.8 14.2 13.6 42
Atlanta Green Bay 4.3 2.5 5.1 62
N. Y. Giants Detroit 3.9 3.0 3.9 35

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
New England 104.7 105.6 104.5 104.9 22
Miami 98.6 99.3 98.0 98.6 24
Buffalo 97.5 98.4 97.7 97.9 24
N. Y. Jets 92.0 91.3 92.0 91.8 19
           
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Pittsburgh 104.4 104.9 104.0 104.5 23
Baltimore 103.2 103.4 103.5 103.3 18
Cincinnati 97.7 97.8 97.9 97.8 16
Cleveland 94.6 94.9 95.0 94.8 22
           
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Tennessee 98.6 99.2 97.9 98.6 25
Jacksonville 97.9 97.6 98.0 97.8 22
Houston 97.2 97.9 96.5 97.2 15
Indianapolis 95.6 95.8 95.2 95.5 27
           
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Kansas City 105.0 105.3 105.4 105.2 22
Oakland 104.6 105.4 104.1 104.7 27
Denver 101.8 101.3 102.1 101.7 17
LA Chargers 100.5 99.5 100.8 100.3 28
           
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Dallas 105.9 104.4 106.0 105.5 22
N.Y. Giants 101.3 101.4 101.1 101.3 14
Philadelphia 101.4 100.1 102.3 101.3 21
Washington 99.1 98.7 99.5 99.1 25
           
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Green Bay 103.8 104.8 103.3 104.0 28
Detroit 100.4 101.4 100.2 100.7 21
Minnesota 100.2 100.2 100.6 100.3 18
Chicago 94.5 95.0 94.3 94.6 20
           
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Atlanta 105.0 104.3 105.5 104.9 34
Carolina 101.6 100.5 101.9 101.3 26
Tampa Bay 100.9 99.9 101.3 100.7 22
New Orleans 99.6 98.4 99.7 99.2 33
           
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Seattle 102.4 102.5 101.9 102.3 18
Arizona 100.1 100.5 100.0 100.2 26
LA Rams 91.4 91.7 91.3 91.5 18
San Francisco 91.5 91.3 91.3 91.4 24

The Offense Rests
Okay, it has only been one week of the NFL season, and two teams didn’t even play, so we are looking at just 15 games to date. And, after 15 games, the worry going around the NFL is that there is a giant lack of offense. Let’s look into this potential problem to see where the answer(s) might be.

The Average Points Per Game for Week 1 was 20.2 points, which is down a little from the recent trend of about 22.5 to 23.0 points per game. The Average in total yards was 305, which is off by a little more than the recent historical norm of 325 yards.

Have defenses simply just gotten better, and is this trend real? Or, could there be other factors? The professional athlete continues to evolve into a more fit, stronger, quicker, and smarter specimen. This evolution has changed all sports, as NBA basketball has a handful of superstars, and you must have at least one and preferably two to compete for the title. Major League Baseball is all about how hard one can hit the ball and how difficult one can prevent one from hitting the ball. Small Ball is almost extinct, as it is all about OPS and preventing such.

Could it be that football has changed as well, and that the superior athletes of today can close up all the gaps on the field and make it much more difficult to gain yards?

We think not. Let’s look back to the 1960’s, a time when the professional athlete was evolving from a time 10 years earlier when linemen might be 210 pounds and backs 180. In the 1960’s, the trend of 270-pound tackles and 220-pound linebackers led to the fear that the field might become too small. However, the NFL featured all types of scoring. You had teams that scored a lot of points and gave up a goodly amount as well. You had teams that featured defenses that held teams under 10 points per game for an entire season. You had quarterbacks that you knew would lead their teams to the playoffs, while others would not be up to the challenge.

The philosophy of the game was much different. Today, almost every NFL team relies on the short passing game to move the ball, complimented with the power running game. A team is likely to feature 15 to 20 line plunges and 15-20 passes of less than 5 yards through the air. Defenses basically must defend horizontally, and they can get by with 2-deep coverage or man-to-man with a free safety for most of the game. They can bring 7 men into the box on more downs than ever, because today 2nd and 10 is more likely to see the QB throw a short pass of less than 5 yards with the hope that the receiver can run for another 5 after the catch.

Even on 3rd & 10, there is a great chance that the QB will throw a short pass, hoping that the receiver can gain the necessary yards to convert. Defenses can play 2-deep with a nickel or dime package and appear to have all the zones covered in the 10-yard range.

This bunching horizontally has led to an appearance that the running gaps are covered across the field. It is much easier to squeeze in and stuff the inside run, and since there are defenders spread out, the wide runs don’t always work any more, as the art of pulling two guards to lead interference has gone away like the drop kick.

Statistically, quarterbacks today look much better than quarterbacks of 50 years ago, but it is most likely not the case. And, here’s why. Today’s quarterbacks might go 20 of 30 for 185 yards with a TD. A passer from 50 years ago might go 14 of 30 for 185 yards with a TD. The 2017 QB has a higher QB rating (94.5 to 77.8), but how did he perform any better? The 2017 QB most likely threw passes that gained little yardage or even lost yardage. The 1967 QB rarely completed a pass for less than 5 yards. It was unheard of back then, and when it happened, it was almost always from a botched screen pass. In essence, if you look at the 2017 QB, he might have 40% of his completions going for less than 8 yards. The 1967 QB was more likely to have 10% of his completions going for less than 8 yards, and for the most part coming on 3rd and 5, not 3rd and 10.

Let’s look at the breakdown of some of the passing philosophies of today and 50 years ago. First, let us categorize passing plays into screens, short passes thrown no more than 5 yards downfield with some coming behind the line, medium passes in the 6-12 yard range, intermediate passes in the 13-20 yard range, deep passes in the 21-30 yard range, and long passes in the 31+ yard range.
The passer of today might throw 2 screens, 16 short passes, 8 medium passes, 2 intermediate passes, 1 deep pass, and 1 long pass per game. He might complete both screens, 12 of the short passes, 4 of the medium passes, 1 intermediate pass, and 1 of the two deeper throws for 20 completions. This gives him 185 passing yards.

The passer of 50 years ago might have thrown 4 screens (this play was used a lot more then), 3 short passes, 10 medium passes, 5 interemediate passes, 3 deep passes, and 5 long passes for his 30 attempts. He might complete 3 of the 4 screens, 2 of the 3 short passes, 5 of the 10 medium passes, 2 of the 5 intermediate passes, 1 of the 3 deep passes, and 1 of the 5 long passes for 14 completions but also for 185 yards.

So, which is better? We believe the 1967 stats are better, because they are more likely to produce points. It has always been difficult to drive down the field 80 yards in 15 plays for a touchdown. It takes long-gaining plays to win in the NFL, and it always has been the case. There have been teams like the 1960’s Green Bay Packers, and the 1970’s Miami Dolphins that could sustain drive after drive, but these teams also had great defenses, and they could afford to grind it out with 40 running plays and 20 passing plays in a game. Still, when you looked at Bart Starr, his passing feats were usually right there at the top. Starr would set up the longer passes by forcing the defense to stop the Packer running game. The Packers spread the field both horizontally and vertically.

Other quarterbacks like Johnny Unitas, Norm Van Brocklin, Sonny Jurgensen, Roman Gabriel, Don Meredith, George Blanda, Daryle Lamonica, Len Dawson, John Hadl, Joe Namath, Norm Snead, and Frank Ryan rarely threw a short pass. Lamonica is the quintessential passer from the 1960’s. Known as the “Mad Bomber,” he led the Oakland Raiders to a 37-4-1 record from 1967 to 1969. Lamonica threw the ball more than 40 yards downfield about 7 or 8 times a game, usually completing 2 or 3, and usually passing for 2 to 3 touchdowns every week. Having Warren Wells and Fred Biletnikoff running deep routes and having hands like glue meant that defenses had to play 3 and 4 deep on many downs. 2 Deep coverage was rare, because the QBs of the 1960’s would burn it.

The running games had more room in the 1960’s, and with a two-back alignment, the running game was more consistent. Defenses had to play looser against the deep pass and had to worry about which of the two backs would carry the ball. Defenses could not cover all the running gaps, because at least 3 defensive backs had to play off the line of scrimmage far enough back to cover the deep passing routes, and the linebackers had to worry about the intermediate zones of which there was more width than today, as today’s underneath zones usually have 5 defenders, whereas 50 years ago, there were just 4.

There are a few teams that showed us a vertical game this past weekend. Oakland, Minnesota, and Atlanta, showed a vertical passing offense this week, and the three teams combined for 78 points (26.0 ppg). All three won their games.

So, we believe the issue of less offense has more to do with game-planning than with evolution of athletes. Athletes have been evolving continually for years with consistency. Philosophies have changed through the years. As soon as one team succeeds in playing a certain way, 80% of the league tries to copy it. Maybe, when a vertical passing team wins a Super Bowl, within a couple years, the vertical passing game will be the norm once again, like it was in the 1960’s when the NFL and AFL were more exciting than the NFL today. It could also be a factor in the decline of television viewership and the less frequent sellouts in the stadiums.

September 6, 2017

PiRate Ratings–NFL For Week 1

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:18 am

Week 1 NFL Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
New England Kansas City 7.4 7.7 6.9
Buffalo N. Y. Jets 7.7 9.6 7.9
Chicago Atlanta -7.7 -6.4 -8.5
Cincinnati Baltimore 2.6 2.0 2.9
Cleveland Pittsburgh -7.9 -8.0 -7.3
Dallas N. Y. Giants 5.0 3.2 4.9
Detroit Arizona 1.1 2.3 0.8
Green Bay Seattle 3.8 5.1 3.6
Houston Jacksonville 7.7 8.4 7.2
LA Rams Indianapolis -1.1 -1.1 -0.9
Miami (Postponed) Tampa Bay x x x
San Francisco Carolina -3.7 -3.4 -3.9
Tennessee Oakland -1.3 -2.2 -1.2
Washington Philadelphia 2.5 3.5 1.9
Denver LA Chargers 4.5 5.0 4.7
Minnesota New Orleans 1.9 4.2 1.7

Week 1 NFL Totals

Home Visitor Total
New England Kansas City 41
Buffalo N. Y. Jets 46
Chicago Atlanta 56
Cincinnati Baltimore 36
Cleveland Pittsburgh 45
Dallas N. Y. Giants 37
Detroit Arizona 47
Green Bay Seattle 47
Houston Jacksonville 37
LA Rams Indianapolis 43
Miami (postponed) Tampa Bay x
San Francisco Carolina 52
Tennessee Oakland 52
Washington Philadelphia 47
Denver LA Chargers 46
Minnesota New Orleans 52

The PiRate Ratings were ready for publication Monday, but our captain, with loads of “oceanic” experience in search of robbing Las Vegans of their gold, gave the orders to hold off a couple days.  Our captain knew that the schedule for week 1 would more than likely change due to Ms. Irma of the Atlantic.

How ironic that this hurricane be named Irma.  Irma is an old name seldom seen these days and maybe after next week, joining Jedidiah, Japath, and other names not used any more.

The NFL schedule makers used to consider weather possibilities when creating the annual slate of games.  Not that Vince Lombardi ever needed the help, but Green Bay frequently began seasons with multiple home games early in the season, while Los Angeles played on the road more early in the season.  Then, when the weather turned raw, the Packers had more road games, while the Rams closed the season with more home games.  By this time, Green Bay had a gaudy won-loss record, while the already eliminated Rams played home games in a rather empty Los Angeles Coliseum, and coaches like Harland Svare suffered the consequences.

The Miami Dolphins and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers now face the task of having to play 16 games in 16 weeks, as Hurricane Irma has forced this Sunday’s opener to be postponed to Week 11.  Because the Dolphins already have one home game in London, it was not feasible that the team would move a second home game away from home.  The right thing for the players would have been to move the game to a location as close as possible without putting it in the path of the hurricane.  A large stadium like Legion Field in Birmingham might have been able to host this game, but this is not an NFL venue, and the NFL usually only relocates games to other NFL stadiums, because there are certain quality standards that must be set.

Moving the game to week 11, when by happenstance both teams have their regularly scheduled bye, is means the Dolphins will not play a real home game until October, and having to play 16 games in 16 weeks will most likely hurt both teams’ chances to make the playoffs this season.  With the concussion protocol rules, the chances of having a full roster of skill position players for 16 consecutive weeks is close to nil.  Players need an extra week off at some point in the meat of the schedule just to nurse the bumps and bruises that make every day life uncomfortable.  This is likely to cost both teams a win or two, as they will not be able to field a healthy roster when they most need a week off.

What you will see in our projected standings reflects what we think will happen.  Both teams were originally selected to become Wildcard Playoff participants before this happened.  Now, both teams are moved out of the playoffs.  The Dolphins are sacrificing the possibility of playoffs for the guarantee of a seventh home game.

2017 Opening NFL PiRate Ratings 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Buffalo 97.4 98.4 97.6 97.8 26
Miami 98.6 99.3 98.0 98.6 24
New England 107.1 107.8 106.9 107.2 20
N. Y. Jets 92.1 91.3 92.1 91.9 20
           
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Baltimore 100.7 101.1 100.8 100.8 19
Cincinnati 100.2 100.1 100.6 100.3 17
Cleveland 94.3 94.7 94.6 94.5 22
Pittsburgh 104.7 105.1 104.4 104.8 23
           
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Houston 99.9 100.4 99.4 99.9 15
Indianapolis 99.1 99.3 98.7 99.0 27
Jacksonville 95.2 95.1 95.1 95.1 22
Tennessee 99.4 99.7 98.9 99.3 25
           
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Denver 101.9 101.4 102.3 101.9 17
Kansas City 102.6 103.1 103.0 102.9 21
LA Chargers 100.4 99.4 100.6 100.1 29
Oakland 103.8 104.9 103.1 103.9 27
           
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Dallas 104.6 103.0 104.5 104.1 23
N.Y. Giants 102.6 102.8 102.6 102.7 14
Philadelphia 100.3 98.9 101.2 100.1 21
Washington 100.2 99.9 100.6 100.2 26
           
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Chicago 94.4 95.0 94.1 94.5 20
Detroit 99.3 100.6 99.0 99.7 21
Green Bay 103.5 104.7 102.9 103.7 29
Minnesota 99.3 99.9 99.5 99.6 17
           
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Atlanta 105.1 104.3 105.7 105.0 36
Carolina 100.2 99.3 100.3 99.9 26
New Orleans 100.5 98.7 100.8 100.0 35
Tampa Bay 100.9 99.9 101.3 100.7 22
           
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Arizona 101.2 101.3 101.2 101.2 26
LA Rams 94.9 95.2 94.8 95.0 16
San Francisco 92.9 92.5 92.9 92.8 26
Seattle 102.7 102.6 102.3 102.5 18

To estimate spreads, simply subtract the lower rated teams’ ratings from the higher rated teams’ rating.  Then, add your home field advantage of choice.  The PiRates use game specific advantages for each game.

To estimate the total points scored, simply add the two teams’ Totals numbers.

PiRate Ratings Preseason Playoff Projections 

AFC Seeding

1. New England

2. Oakland

3. Pittsburgh

4. Houston

5. Kansas City

6. Baltimore

 

NFC Seeding

1. Seattle

2. Green Bay

3. NY Giants

4. Atlanta

5. Arizona

6. Dallas

 

Wildcard Playoff Round

Pittsburgh over Baltimore

Kansas City over Houston

NY Giants over Dallas

Arizona over Atlanta

 

Divisional Playoff Round

New England over Kansas City

Oakland over Pittsburgh

Arizona over Seattle

Green Bay over NY Giants

 

Conference Championship Games

Oakland over New England

Green Bay over Arizona

 

Super Bowl 52

Oakland over Green Bay

January 17, 2017

NFL Ratings And Spreads For NFL Conference Championships: January 22, 2017

SUNDAY, JANUARY 22, 2017

NFC Championship

Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers

Time: 3:05 PM EST

TV: Fox Sports Network

Radio: Westwood One  

Find Your Local Westwoon One Affiliate at: http://westwoodonesports.com/stations/

Line: Atlanta by 4 1/2 or 5 (changing rapidly)

Total: 61

PiRate Ratings Spreads

PiRate: Atlanta by 7.4

Mean: Atlanta by 8.2

Bias: Atlanta by 7.7

PiRate Total: 67

 

100 Simulations

Atlanta wins: 56

Green Bay wins: 44

Average Score: Atlanta 34  Green Bay 32

Outlier A: Atlanta 45  Green Bay 23

Outlier B: Green Bay 48  Atlanta 27

 

AFC Championship

New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Time: 6:40 PM EST

TV: CBS

Radio: Westwood One  

Find Your Local Westwood One Affiliate at: http://westwoodonesports.com/stations/

 

Line: New England by 5 1/2 or 6 (changing rapidly)

Total: 51

 

PiRate Ratings Spreads

PiRate: New England by 9.4

Mean: New England by 8.4

Bias: New England by 9.6

Total: 47

 

100 Simulations

New England wins 48

Pittsburgh wins 52

Average Score: New England 26  Pittsburgh 26

Outlier A: New England 41  Pittsburgh 20

Outlier B: Pittsburgh 24  New England 7

January 9, 2017

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Divisional Playoff Round: January 14-15, 2017

Saturday, January 14, 2017

Game 1: Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons

Time: 4:35 PM EST

TV: Fox

Vegas Line: Atlanta by 4 1/2

Total Line: 51

 

PiRate Rating: Atlanta by 6.5

Mean Rating: Atlanta by 9.0

Bias Rating: Atlanta by 6.1

PiRate Total: 56

 

100 Simulations

Atlanta wins 63

Seattle wins 37

Average Score: Atlanta 29  Seattle 24

Outlier A: Atlanta 37  Seattle 16

Outlier B: Seattle 24  Atlanta 9

 

Game 2: Houston Texans at New England Patriots

Time: 8:15 PM EST

TV: CBS

Vegas Line: New England by 16

Total Line: 45

 

PiRate Rating: New England by 17.8

Mean Rating: New England by 15.5

Bias Rating: New England by 19.5

PiRate Total: 45

 

100 Simulations

New England wins 96

Houston wins 4

Average Score: New England 37  Houston 17

Outlier A: New England 56  Houston 7

Outlier B: Houston 24  New England 20

 

Sunday, January 15, 2017

Game 1: Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs

Time: 1:05 PM EST

TV: NBC

Vegas Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2

Total Line: 45 1/2

 

PiRate Rating: Kansas City by 2.9 

Mean Rating: Kansas City by 3.1

Bias Rating: Kansas City by 3.0

Total Line: 46

 

100 Simulations

Kansas City wins 53

Pittsburgh wins 47

Average Score: Kansas City 23  Pittsburgh 23 (KC 23.3 Pit 22.9)

Outlier A: Kansas City 27  Pittsburgh 10

Outlier B: Pittsburgh 34  Kansas City 13

 

Game 2: Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys

Time: 4:40 PM EST

TV: Fox

Vegas Line: Dallas by 4

Total Line: 52

 

PiRate Rating: Dallas by 2.7 

Mean Rating: Dallas by 3.5

Bias Rating: Dallas by 3.2

Total Line: 52

 

100 Simulations

Dallas wins 43

Green Bay wins 57

Average Score: Green Bay 33  Dallas 28

Outlier A: Dallas 34  Green Bay 20

Outlier B: Green Bay 38  Dallas 16

January 4, 2017

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Wildcard Playoff Round: January 7-8, 2017

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:31 am

NFL Playoffs–Wildcard Round

Oakland Raiders (12-4-0) at Houston Texans (9-7-0)

Saturday, January 7, 4:35 PM EST

TV: ESPN

Las Vegas Line: Houston by 3 1/2,

Totals Line: 36 1/2

Note: Raiders’ rookie QB Connor Cook will start

Texans expect to start Brock Osweiler at QB who will play at less than 100%

PiRate Spread: Houston by 2.7

Mean Spread: Houston by 3.0

Bias Spread: Houston by 1.8

Totals Spread: 46 points

100 Simulations

Houston wins 77

Oakland wins 23

Average score: Houston 23  Oakland 18

Outlier A: Houston 41  Oakland 13

Outlier B: Oakland 34  Houston 16

 

Detroit Lions (9-7-0) at Seattle Seahawks (10-5-1)

Saturday, January 7, 8:15 PM EST

TV: NBC

Las Vegas Line: Seattle by 8

Totals Line: 43

PiRate Spread: Seattle by 8.6

Mean Spread: Seattle by 6.9

Bias Spread: Seattle by 9.3

Totals Spread: 43 points

100 Simulations

Seattle wins 86

Detroit wins 14

Average Score: Seattle 26  Detroit 16

Outlier A: Seattle 42  Detroit 13

Outlier B: Detroit 27  Seattle 20

 

Miami Dolphins (10-6-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5-0)

Sunday, January 8, 1:05 PM EST

TV: CBS

Note: Miami QB Ryan Tannehill is out for this game.  Matt Moore will start.

Las Vegas Spread: Pittsburgh by 10

Totals Spread: 47

PiRate Spread: Pittsburgh by 9.9

Mean Spread: Pittsburgh by 9.8

Bias Spread: Pittsburgh by 10.0

Totals Spread: 45 points

100 Simulations

Pittsburgh wins 73

Miami wins 27

Average Score: Pittsburgh 25  Miami 20

Outlier A: Pittsburgh 35  Miami 10

Outlier B: Miami 19  Pittsburgh 10

 

New York Giants (11-5-0) at Green Bay Packers (10-6-0)

Sunday, January 8, 4:40 PM EST

TV: Fox

Las Vegas Line: Green Bay by 5

Totals Line: 44 1/2

PiRate Spread: Green Bay by 5.6

Mean Spread: Green Bay by 6.1

Bias Spread: Green Bay by 5.0

Totals Spread: 57 points

100 simulations

Green Bay wins 59

New York wins 41

Average Score: Green Bay 26  New York 24

Outlier A: Green Bay 31  New York 13

Outlier B: New York 30  Green Bay 17

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