The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 28, 2011

PiRate Ratings: College Football for December 1-10, 2011

It’s Open Season On Coaching Jobs

It started early this year.  New Mexico was forced to dismiss Mike Locksley early, and the Lobos were quick to name former Notre Dame coach Bob Davie as their new coach.  Ohio State’s job was available as soon as the Buckeyes lost their second game.  To say the brass in Columbus did not know who they wanted from the start was an “Urban” myth.

 

Ole Miss terminated Houston Nutt.  Arizona and Mike Stoops parted ways.  Joe Paterno lost his job over off the field issues.  Then, Bob Toledo was sent on his way from Tulane.

 

The floodgates soon opened, and by Sunday, the list of coaching vacancies had swelled.  At its worst, Akron fired Rob Ianello over the phone while he was driving to his mother’s funeral.  What a tasteless act!  A pox on the program, the Zips should be punished with 30 losing seasons in a row and a bankrupt athletic department.  How would any honest, hard-working coach ever want to sign on with the Zips?

 

If you ever wanted to find a living example of the Peter Principle, then look at Champaign-Urbana, Illinois.  Ron Zook proved for the second time that he is not up to the task of handling a major college football program.  The Illini dismissed Zook Sunday following their sixth consecutive loss after beginning the season 6-0 with talent strong enough to contend for the Leaders Division title.  Zook should be a recruiter and an assistant coach.  He admitted earlier this season that he did not know the score of more than one game when he made decisions to go for two points following a touchdown.

 

More vacancies are sure to come.  Rick Neuheisel is expected to be fired as soon as his UCLA Bruins lose at Oregon this week.  He could even lose his job if the Bruins upset the Ducks and earn a Rose Bowl bid.  With Meyer filling the Ohio State vacancy and former Michigan and West Virginia coach Rich Rodriguez filling the Arizona vacancy, the vacancy in Westwood becomes the cream of the crop if it indeed becomes a vacancy.  You have to believe the Penn State job will not be as enticing.

 

As The Leach Turns

Mike Leach, an honorary member of the PiRate Ratings, will be considered for many of the coaching vacancies this year.  Fans at Kansas, Ole Miss, Washington State, Arizona State, Tulane, Florida Atlantic, and UAB have already begun to talk about Leach being at or near the top of their wish list.  As soon as Neuheisel is let go at UCLA, Leach fever will break out in Westwood.

 

Leach does not understand the principle of tactfulness.  Like Howard Cosell, he tells it like it is, and the “good ole boys network” does not like 100% honesty coming forth from their employees.  It’s the company line or the unemployment line, and Leach is doing quite well as a sports talk show host.  Throw in a wrongful termination suit against Texas Tech (which appears to be justified) and a lawsuit against ESPN, and Ron Zook may have a better chance getting hired for one of these coaching vacancies. 

 

Gary Barnett took a Northwestern program that had been 0-11 or 1-10 over 50% of the time in the 20 years prior to his coming to Evanston.  He guided the Wildcats to the Rose Bowl.  He went to Boulder and guided Colorado to a Big 12 Championship, yet he found himself unemployed following an incident in which he used tactics to encourage a female placekicker to quit the team.  No school ever approached him following his termination, and Leach could very well be in the same boat.

 

The Big East Isn’t As Messy Now

After a wild week of games on the Eastern Seaboard, the race for the automatic bid to a BCS Bowl comes down to three teams in the Big East’s final weekend.  Louisville defeated South Florida to become one of the three finalists.  The Cardinals do not control their own destiny, and they will be on the sidelines anxiously awaiting the results of games to be played Thursday and Saturday.

 

West Virginia ventures to Tampa Thursday night to take on South Florida.  If the Mountaineers win, then Cincinnati is eliminated from the race.  If West Virginia loses, then Cincinnati would then control their own destiny.  The Bearcats host Connecticut Saturday.

 

If West Virginia and Cincinnati both win, then West Virginia is the Big East Champion in a three-way tiebreaker.  If West Virginia wins and Cincinnati loses to Connecticut, then Louisville is the winner in a two-way tiebreaker.  If West Virginia loses and Cincinnati wins, then Cincinnati bests Louisville in a two-way tiebreaker.  Of course, if both West Virginia and Cincinnati both lose, Louisville wins the conference outright.

 

According to game theory, Louisville has two options to win the conference championship, while WVU and Cinti have just one.  So, Louisville is the favorite to get the BCS bowl bid.  Regardless of which team wins, that team will be the 10th and final BCS bowl selection, and they will play the ACC Champion in the Orange Bowl, which has the final pick this year.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

1

L S U

137.8

2

Alabama

135.1

3

Southern Cal

130.9

4

Oregon

129.5

5

Stanford

127.2

6

Wisconsin

127.1

7

Oklahoma

126.8

8

Oklahoma St.

126.3

9

Arkansas

123.6

10

Florida St.

120.3

11

Houston

119.9

12

Boise St.

119.9

13

Michigan

119.2

14

Georgia 

118.6

15

Michigan St.

118.6

16

Texas A&M

118.5

17

Virginia Tech

116.8

18

Texas

116.8

19

Notre Dame

116.7

20

S. Carolina

115.9

21

Kansas St.

114.2

22

T C U

114.1

23

California

113.9

24

Missouri

113.6

25

Baylor

113.1

26

Nebraska

112.0

27

Vanderbilt

111.3

28

Florida 

110.6

29

B Y U

109.9

30

Louisiana Tech

109.3

31

Utah

109.0

32

Arizona St.

108.9

33

Miami (FL)

108.8

34

Mississippi St.

108.7

35

Washington

108.5

36

Clemson

108.3

37

Ohio St.

108.1

38

W. Virginia

106.8

39

Tulsa

106.4

40

Cincinnati

106.4

41

Georgia Tech

105.8

42

N. Carolina St.

105.7

43

Penn St.

105.4

44

Boston Coll.

105.1

45

N. Carolina

105.0

46

Pittsburgh

104.8

47

Oregon St.

104.4

48

Iowa

104.3

49

U C L A

104.2

50

Nevada

103.8

51

Louisville

103.7

52

Iowa St.

103.6

53

Auburn

103.5

54

Southern Miss.

103.3

55

Northwestern

103.3

56

Virginia

102.8

57

Arizona

102.8

58

Washington St.

102.1

59

Tennessee

101.7

60

S. Florida

100.7

61

Air Force

100.4

62

Wake Forest

100.3

63

Toledo

99.9

64

Temple

99.4

65

Utah St.

98.9

66

Rutgers

98.8

67

Purdue

98.3

68

Illinois

98.0

69

San Diego St.

97.2

70

Connecticut

97.2

71

Minnesota

97.2

72

Texas Tech

96.9

73

Wyoming

95.6

74

Navy

95.4

75

Colorado

95.4

76

Western Michigan

95.3

77

Duke

95.3

78

Central Florida

95.2

79

Northern Illinois

95.0

80

Kentucky

94.9

81

Arkansas St.

94.5

82

San Jose St.

93.6

83

S M U

91.9

84

Hawaii

91.7

85

Maryland

91.6

86

East Carolina

91.4

87

Fresno St.

91.2

88

Syracuse

91.0

89

Miami (O)

90.2

90

Western Ky.

89.6

91

Florida Int’l

89.2

92

Ohio U

89.1

93

Kansas

89.1

94

Ole Miss

88.7

95

UL-Lafayette

86.8

96

U T E P

85.5

97

Idaho

85.3

98

Marshall

84.9

99

UL-Monroe

84.8

100

Bowling Green

84.2

101

Rice

83.9

102

Colorado St.

83.6

103

Army

83.0

104

Ball St.

82.9

105

Eastern Michigan

82.0

106

Indiana

82.0

107

Kent St.

81.9

108

New Mexico St.

80.2

109

North Texas

79.3

110

U A B

78.8

111

U N L V

77.3

112

Central Michigan

76.5

113

Buffalo

76.0

114

Troy

75.9

115

Middle Tennessee

72.7

116

New Mexico

71.1

117

Tulane

70.5

118

Memphis

68.0

119

Florida Atlantic

65.2

120

Akron

57.4

 

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

* = team has clinched conference or division title

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

FloridaState

5-3

8-4

120.3

Clemson

6-2 *

9-3

108.3

North CarolinaState

4-4

7-5

105.7

BostonCollege

3-5

4-8

105.1

WakeForest

5-3

6-6

100.3

Maryland

1-7

2-10

91.6

       
Coastal Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Virginia Tech

7-1 *

11-1

116.8

Miami-FL

3-5

6-6

108.8

Georgia Tech

5-3

8-4

105.8

North Carolina

3-5

7-5

105.0

Virginia

5-3

8-4

102.8

Duke

1-7

3-9

95.3

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

West Virginia

4-2

8-3

106.8

Cincinnati

4-2

8-3

106.4

Pittsburgh

3-3

5-6

104.8

Louisville

5-2

7-5

103.7

South Florida

1-5

5-6

100.7

Rutgers

4-3

8-4

98.8

Connecticut

3-3

5-6

97.2

Syracuse

1-5

5-6

91.0

 

Big Ten

       
Leaders Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Wisconsin

6-2 *

10-2

127.1

Penn State

6-2

9-3

105.4

Ohio State

3-5

6-6

108.1

Illinois

2-6

6-6

98.0

Purdue

4-4

6-6

98.3

Indiana

0-8

1-11

82.0

       
Legends Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Michigan

6-2

10-2

119.2

Michigan State

7-1 *

10-2

118.6

Nebraska

5-3

9-3

112.0

Iowa

4-4

7-5

104.3

Northwestern

3-5

6-6

103.3

Minnesota

2-6

3-9

97.2

 

Big 12

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Oklahoma

6-2

9-2

126.8

Oklahoma State

7-1

10-1

126.3

Texas A&M

4-5

6-6

118.5

Texas

4-4

7-4

116.8

Kansas State

6-2

9-2

114.2

Missouri

5-4

7-5

113.6

Baylor

5-3

8-3

113.1

Iowa State

3-5

6-5

103.6

Texas Tech

2-7

5-7

96.9

Kansas

0-9

2-10

89.1

 

Conference USA

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Southern Mississippi

6-2 *

10-2

103.3

Central Florida

3-5

5-7

95.2

East Carolina

4-4

5-7

91.4

Marshall

5-3

6-6

84.9

U A B

3-5

3-9

78.8

Memphis

1-7

2-10

68.0

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Houston

8-0 *

12-0

119.9

Tulsa

7-1

8-4

106.4

S M U

5-3

7-5

91.9

U T E P

2-6

5-7

85.5

Rice

3-5

4-8

83.9

Tulane

1-7

2-11

70.5

 

Independents

       
Team

 

Overall

Rating

Notre Dame  

8-4

116.7

B Y U  

8-3

109.9

Navy  

4-7

95.4

Army  

3-8

83.0

 

Mid American Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Temple

5-3

8-4

99.4

Miami (O)

3-5

4-8

90.2

Ohio U

6-2 *

9-3

89.1

Bowling Green

3-5

5-7

84.2

Kent St.

4-4

5-7

81.9

Buffalo

2-6

3-9

76.0

Akron

0-8

1-11

57.4

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Toledo

7-1

8-4

99.9

Western Michigan

5-3

7-5

95.3

Northern Illinois

7-1 *

9-3

95.0

Ball State

4-4

6-6

82.9

Eastern Michigan

4-4

6-6

82.0

Central Michigan

2-6

3-9

76.5

 

Mountain West Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Boise State

5-1

10-1

119.9

T C U

6-0 *

9-2

114.1

Air Force

3-4

7-5

100.4

San Diego State

4-3

7-4

97.2

Wyoming

4-2

7-4

95.6

Colorado State

1-5

3-8

83.6

UNLV

1-5

2-9

77.3

New Mexico

1-5

1-10

71.1

 

Pac-12 Conference

       
North Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Oregon

8-1 *

10-2

129.5

Stanford

8-1

11-1

127.2

California

4-5

7-5

113.9

Washington

5-4

7-5

108.5

Oregon State

3-6

3-9

104.4

Washington State

2-7

4-8

102.1

       
South Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

U S C

7-2

10-2

130.9

Utah

4-5

7-5

109.0

Arizona State

4-5

6-6

108.9

U C L A

5-4 *

6-6

104.2

Arizona

2-7

4-8

102.8

Colorado

2-7

3-10

95.4

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Georgia

7-1 *

10-2

118.6

South Carolina

6-2

10-2

115.9

Vanderbilt

2-6

6-6

111.3

Florida

3-5

6-6

110.6

Tennessee

1-7

5-7

101.7

Kentucky

2-6

5-7

94.9

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

L S U

8-0 *

12-0

137.8

Alabama

7-1

11-1

135.1

Arkansas

6-2

10-2

123.6

Mississippi State

2-6

6-6

108.7

Auburn

4-4

7-5

103.5

Ole Miss

0-8

2-10

88.7

 

Sunbelt Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Arkansas State

7-0 *

9-2

94.5

Western Kentucky

7-1

7-5

89.6

Florida International

5-3

8-4

89.2

U. of Louisiana

6-2

8-4

86.8

Louisiana-Monroe

2-5

3-8

84.8

North Texas

3-4

4-7

79.3

Troy

2-5

3-8

75.9

Middle Tennessee

1-6

2-9

72.7

Florida Atlantic

0-7

1-10

65.2

 

Western Athletic Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

LouisianaTech

6-1 *

8-4

109.3

Nevada

4-2

6-5

103.8

Utah State

4-2

6-5

98.9

San Jose State

3-4

5-7

93.6

Hawaii

3-4

6-6

91.7

Fresno State

3-4

4-8

91.2

Idaho

1-5

2-9

85.3

New Mexico State

2-4

4-8

80.2

 

 

Final Regular Season Games (12/1 to 12/10)

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings

   

 

 

 

Thursday, December 1  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

West Virginia SOUTH FLORIDA

3.1

27-24

1   

   

 

 

 

Friday, December 2  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

Northern Illinois   (n) Ohio U

5.9

30-24

3   

OREGON U c l a

28.3

38-10

30 1/2

   

 

 

 

Saturday, December 3  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

CINCINNATI Connecticut

12.2

32-20

9 1/2

PITTSBURGH Syracuse

16.8

27-10

13   

KANSAS ST. Iowa St.

13.6

31-17

12   

Wyoming COLORADO ST.

9.5

24-14

5   

T C U U n l v

39.8

47-7

40 1/2

OKLAHOMA ST. Oklahoma

2.0

35-33

3   

Texas BAYLOR

1.2

29-28

-2 1/2

NEVADA Idaho

21.0

42-21

19   

BOISE ST. New Mexico

51.8

52-0

52   

B y u HAWAII

14.2

35-21

8   

Utah St. NEW MEXICO ST.

16.2

37-21

14   

SAN DIEGO ST. Fresno St.

8.5

33-24

6 1/2

ARKANSAS ST. Troy

21.1

34-13

13   

NORTH TEXAS Middle Tennessee

9.6

27-17

7   

Louisiana-Monroe FLORIDA ATLANTIC

17.1

34-17

11 1/2

HOUSTON Southern Miss.

19.6

41-21

16 1/2

L s u    (n) Georgia

17.7

35-17

10   

Virginia Tech    (n) Clemson

8.5

28-19

4 1/2

Wisconsin     (n) Michigan St.

8.5

35-26

7 1/2

   

 

 

 

Saturday, December 10  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

Navy     (n) Army

12.4

24-12

NL

 

Bowl Predictions

At this point of the season, we are no longer making predictions on bowl games.  Instead, we are perusing the media for incites into which way the bowls are leaning.  For instance, from sport talk radio this morning, we have heard the rumor that the Gator Bowl is going to go after Florida and Ohio State due to the Urban Meyer factor.  Thus, when we predict this matchup, it is no longer our true prediction, but our repetition of the rumor.  We do not rely on any online bowl speculations; we are looking for legitimate media reports.  If there are no specific reports concerning a particular bowl, then we do the speculating based on an educated guess.

 

Teams in Italics have already accepted the bowl bid

* = At-large Team

 

As of today, we are projecting 71 teams to be bowl eligible after this weekend.  The 70th spot will come down to a choice between Ball State and Illinois, unless something occurs with Penn State.  There is a move afoot for the bowls not to invite the Nittany Lions, but as of this writing, there is no legal means to do so.

 

Bowl

Conference

Conference

Team

Team

New Mexico

MWC #4

Pac12 #7 / WAC

San Diego St.

Temple *

Famous Idaho Potato

MAC #3

WAC

Toledo

Utah St.

New Orleans

Sunbelt #1

C-USA

U. of Louisiana

Marshall

Beef O’Brady’s

Big East #6

C-USA

South Florida

Florida Int’l *

Poinsettia

MWC #2

WAC

T C U

Louisiana Tech

MAACO

MWC #1

Pac 12 #5

Boise St.

Arizona St.

Hawaii

WAC

C-USA

Nevada

S M U

Independence

ACC #7

MWC #3

North Carolina

Wyoming

Little Caesar’s Pizza

Big 10 #8

MAC #2

Northwestern

Western Mich.

Belk

ACC #5

Big East #3

North Carolina St.

West Virginia

Military

ACC #8

Navy

Wake Forest

Air Force *

Holiday

Pac 12 #3

Big 12 #5

California

Baylor

Champs Sports

Big East #2

ACC #3

Notre Dame

Florida St.

Alamo

Big 12 #3

Pac 10 #2

Texas

Washington

Armed Forces

C-USA #3

B Y U

Tulsa

B Y U

Pinstripe

Big East #4

Big 12 #7

Rutgers

Iowa St.

Music City

SEC # 7

ACC #6

Mississippi St.

Virginia

Insight

Big 12 #4

Big 10 #4 or 5

Kansas St.

Iowa

Meineke Car Care of Texas

Big 12 #6

Big 10 #6

Texas A&M

Penn St.

Sun

ACC #4

Pac 12 #4

Georgia Tech

Utah

Kraft Fight Hunger

Pac 10 #6

Army/ACC

Ohio U *

Illinois *

Liberty

SEC#8-9/BigEast

C-USA #1

Vanderbilt

Southern Miss.

Chick-fil-A

SEC #5

ACC #2

Auburn

Clemson

TicketCity

Big 10 #7

C-USA

Purdue

Pittsburgh *

Capital One

Big 10 #2

SEC #2

Michigan St.

Arkansas

Gator

Big 10 #4 or 5

SEC #6

Ohio St.

Florida

Outback

SEC #3 or 4

Big 10 #3

South Carolina

Nebraska

Rose

BCS Pac12

BCS Big 10

Oregon

Wisconsin

Fiesta

BCS Big 12

BCS At-Large

Oklahoma St.

Stanford

Sugar

BCS SEC

BCS At-Large

Houston *

Michigan

Orange

BCS ACC

BCS At-Large

Virginia Tech

Cincinnati

Cotton

Big 12 #2

SEC #3 or 4

Oklahoma

Georgia

BBVA Compass

Big East#5/CUSA

SEC #8 or 9

Louisville

Western Ky. *

GoDaddy.com

Sunbelt # 2

MAC #1

Arkansas St.

Northern Illinois

National Championship

*** BCS #1 ***

*** BCS #2 ***

L S U

Alabama

 

 

*** Returning next week: Our computer simulated college football playoffs.  We will use the same formula we have used in past years—a 12-team college football playoff. 

November 21, 2011

PiRate Ratings: College Football for November 22-26, 2011

65 Bowl Eligible Teams—Need 70

Some of the lower-tier bowl committee members will have some very short fingernails this week.  There should be 67 bowl eligible teams this week.  However, Southern Cal is ineligible for postseason bowls, and Miami of Florida announced they will not accept any bowl bids this season.  That leaves a need for five more bowl-eligible teams. 

 

We here at the PiRate Cove believe there is nothing to worry about.  There are 10 teams that need one more win and five have a patsy left of their schedule.  All five of these one-more-win-needed teams should defeat their patsy.  Those five, with their patsy opponent in parentheses are: North Carolina State (Maryland), Purdue (Indiana), Air Force (Colorado St.), Tennessee (Kentucky), Mississippi State (Ole Miss).

 

Two definite additions will be the winner of the Syracuse-Pittsburgh game next week and the winner of this week’s Marshall-East Carolina game.  The Syracuse-Pitt loser can still get a sixth win; Pitt would have to win their Backyard Brawl against West Virginia, or Syracuse would have to beat Cincinnati.

 

Conference by Conference Analysis

ACC

The big news here isn’t which team is going to win the title; it is that Miami pulled itself from consideration for a bowl game.  The Hurricanes have issued a self-imposed bowl ban.  Might coach Al Golden take advantage of not having to worry about leaving his team in the lurch in December and bolt to the first place that wants him?  We wouldn’t be surprised if Penn State comes calling.  Ole Miss is a possibility as well.

 

Clemson is limping into the ACC Championship Game.  The Tigers may actually be the fourth or fifth best team in the league at the present time.

 

The Coastal Division championship will be decided in Charlottesville this week, as Virginia hosts Virginia Tech.  The winner of this game will have all the momentum, and we feel they will be the host team in the Orange Bowl.

 

North Carolina State is 6-5, but they own two wins over FCS teams.  Expect the Wolf Pack to become eligible with a win over Maryland.

 

1. Orange—Virginia Tech vs. Rutgers

2. Chick-fil-A—Clemson vs. Florida

3. Champs Sports—Florida State vs. Notre Dame

4. Sun—Georgia Tech vs. Arizona State

5. Belk—North Carolina vs. West Virginia

6. Music City—Virginia vs. Mississippi State

7. Independence—North Carolina State vs. Air Force

8. Military—Wake Forest vs. Western Michigan

 

Big East

Like this league or hate it (or just believe it should not have an automatic BCS bid), you have to laugh at the fact that all eight teams can still become bowl eligible.  We believe seven of the eight will be successful. Add Notre Dame to the mix here, as they will not finish high enough to earn a BCS bid, even if they upset Stanford.

 

The race for what will be the last BCS selection is up for grabs, with five teams still in contention.  West Virginia controls its own destiny.  If the Mountaineers defeat Pittsburgh and South Florida, they win all tiebreakers.  We do not believe they will win both games.

 

Cincinnati must defeat Syracuse and Connecticut to have a chance to grab the BCS bid.  Again, we do not see the Bearcats pulling off the feat.

 

Louisville and Pittsburgh are still alive in the race.  The Cardinals would have to defeat Connecticut and South Florida (both on the road) and hope for some help.  The Panthers would have to beat West Virginia and Syracuse. 

 

Rutgers has a home game with Cincinnati and a finale at Connecticut.  We believe the Scarlet Knights will win both to take the crown.

 

1. Orange—Rutgers vs. Virginia Tech

2. Champs Sports—Notre Dame vs. Florida State

3. Belk—West Virginia vs. North Carolina

4. Pinstripe—Pittsburgh vs. Texas

5. BVAA Compass—Cincinnati vs. Western Kentucky

6. Beef O’Brady’s—South Florida vs. Florida International

 

Big Ten

Wisconsin must defeat Penn State to secure the Leaders Division title, and we believe the Badgers will do it.

 

Michigan State has already secured the Legends Division crown, and the Spartans just might knock off UW in a rematch for the BCS bid.

 

Michigan should earn an at-large bid to a BCS bowl if they finally defeat Ohio State.  We believe they will.

 

There has been talk that the bowls should pass up Penn State, but we do not believe that will happen.

 

1. Rose—Michigan State vs. Oregon

2. Sugar—Michigan vs. Houston

3. Capital One—Wisconsin vs. Georgia

4. Outback—Nebraska vs. South Carolina

5. Gator—Penn State vs. Auburn

6. Insight—Iowa vs. Baylor

7. Meineke Car Care—Illinois vs. Missouri

8. TicketCity—Ohio St. vs. Marshall

9. Little Caesar’s—Purdue vs. Ohio U

10. Hawaii (at-large)—Northwestern vs. S M U

 

Big 12

In two days, this league self-destructed.  Gone are all chances for Oklahoma, while Oklahoma State needs two, and maybe three, SEC teams to lose.  Kansas State is still alive for an at-large BCS bowl, but we do not believe the Wildcats will get the invitation.

 

The other big stories this weekend will revolve around Texas and Texas A&M hooking up in College Station and Kansas and Missouri facing off at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City.  This will be the last Big 12 games for the Aggies and Tigers, and it could be the final games in these long series for several years.

 

1. Fiesta—Oklahoma St. vs. Stanford

2. Cotton—Oklahoma vs. Arkansas

3. Alamo—Kansas St. vs. Utah

4. Insight—Baylor vs. Iowa

5. Holiday—Texas A&M vs. Washington

6. Meineke Car Care—Missouri vs. Illinois

7. Pinstripe—Texas vs. Pittsburgh

 

Pac-12

With Oregon losing, the Ducks can only play in the Rose Bowl if they win the Civil War game at home against Oregon State.  Stanford is still very much alive for a BCS Bowl, and a win over Notre Dame will secure one of the four at-large spots.

 

The South Division is the most interesting part of the conference race.  Southern Cal will win the division but will not play in the inaugural conference championship game.  The runner-up will get the nod, and three teams are still alive.

 

UCLA will win the spot with an upset over USC or if Utah loses to Colorado.  We say neither will occur.

 

Utah will win the spot if they defeat Colorado, USC beats UCLA, and Cal beats Arizona State.

 

Arizona State will win the spot if they defeat Cal and USC beats UCLA.

 

Arizona is not bowl eligible, but the Wildcats will announce Rich Rodriguez as their new coach.

 

1. Rose—Oregon vs. Michigan State

2. Fiesta—Stanford vs. Oklahoma State

3. Alamo—Utah vs. Kansas State

4. Holiday—Washington vs. Texas A&M

5. Sun—Arizona St. vs. Georgia Tech

6. MAACO—UCLA vs. T C U

7. Kraft Fight Hunger—California vs. Toledo

 

Southeastern

This is the most interesting of all conferences.  The big talk Sunday was the possibility that three teams could play in BCS Bowls because of a technicality in the rules.

 

If LSU beats Arkansas and then loses to Georgia by a slim margin in the SEC Championship, and if Alabama beats Auburn, Alabama will be number one in the BCS Poll, and LSU could fall only one spot to number two.  Alabama and LSU would then play for the National Championship, but Georgia, as SEC Champion, would be guaranteed a spot in the Sugar Bowl.  It could happen, but we believe LSU will be 13-0.

 

Three teams still need one more win to become bowl eligible.  Tennessee should defeat Kentucky, as they always do to get to 6-6.  Mississippi State should send Houston Nutt out of Oxford on a losing streak as the Bulldogs knock off Ole Miss.  However, we believe Vanderbilt will come up short at Wake Forest.  The Commodores are reeling after giving away bowl eligibility in Knoxville Saturday night.  As they say in Nashville, “Same Old Vandy.”

 

1. National Championship Game—L S U vs. Alabama

2. National Championship Game—Alabama vs. L S U

3. Capital One—Georgia vs. Wisconsin

4. Outback—South Carolina vs. Nebraska

5. Cotton—Arkansas vs. Oklahoma

6. Chick-fil-A—Florida vs. Clemson

7. Gator—Auburn vs. Penn State

8. Music City—Mississippi State vs. Virginia

9. Liberty—Tennessee vs. Southern Mississippi

10. BVAA Compass—XXX

 

Conference USA

Houston currently trails Boise State in the BCS rankings, but the Cougars have two remaining games against decent competition in Tulsa and then Southern Mississippi in the CUSA Championship Game, while Boise State has a home game against one of the five weakest teams (New Mexico) in the land.  Okay, Tulsa could defeat Houston and end this speculation, but we are going to go with the Cougars to improve to 13-0 and pass Boise State in the BCS Rankings.  Case Keenum should be invited to New York for the Heisman Trophy presentation, and Houston should get the conference’s first BCS bowl bid.

 

1. Sugar—Houston vs. Michigan

2. Liberty—Southern Mississippi vs. Tennessee

3. Hawaii—S M U vs. Northwestern

4. TicketCity—Marshall vs. Ohio State

5. Armed Forces—Tulsa vs. B Y U

6. Beef O’Brady’s—XXX

7. New Orleans—XXX

 

Independents

Army and Navy have already been eliminated from bowl eligibility, so the Military and Kraft Fight Hunger Bowls will have to find an at-large team to fill these spots.  We predict that the Mid-American Conference will have three extra bowl eligible teams with seven or more wins, and two of those MAC teams will replace Army and Navy.

 

Brigham Young has already accepted a bid to the Armed Forces Bowl, while Notre Dame counts in the Big East bowl allotments.

 

1. Armed Forces—B Y U

2. Military—XXX

3. Kraft Fight Hunger—XXX

 

Mid-American

Although the MAC has just two bowl guarantees, they will have at least four teams going to bowls, and we believe they will get a fifth team in this year.

 

Ohio has already won the East Division title, while Northern Illinois and Toledo are the two contenders in the West.  If NIU defeats Eastern Michigan, the Huskies are in.  If EMU upsets NIU, then Toledo can get in with a win over Ball State.

 

1. GoDaddy—Northern Illinois vs. Arkansas State

2. Little Caesar’s—Ohio U vs. Purdue

3. Kraft Fight Hunger (at-large)—Toledo vs. California

4. Military (at-large)—Western Michigan vs. Wake Forest

5. New Orleans (at-large)—Temple vs. U. of Louisiana

 

Mountain West

Boise State is still alive for a BCS Bowl bid, but the Broncos’ computer rating will suffer when they host New Mexico in the season finale.  They could fall behind a 13-0 Houston team in both the human polls and computer ratings.

 

Air Force has two wins over FCS teams, so the 6-5 Falcons still need to defeat in-state rival Colorado State in Ft. Collins this weekend to earn a bowl bid.  We say it will happen.

 

1. MAACO—T C U vs. U C L A

2. Famous Idaho Potato—Boise State vs. Nevada

3. Poinsettia—San Diego State vs. Utah State

4. Independence—Air Force vs. North Carolina State

5. New Mexico—Wyoming vs. Louisiana Tech

 

Sunbelt

Arkansas State is the best team in the league’s short history.  The Red Wolves can become the first league team to win 10 regular season wins if they defeat Troy next week.

 

Louisiana (Lafayette) has never been to a bowl game, but the Ragin’ Cajuns should get that reward this year.

 

Florida International will get an at-large bid somewhere, because the Golden Panthers will have eight wins.  Western Kentucky should defeat Troy to finish 7-5 after starting 0-4.  Their only loss in the last eight would be to LSU, so the Hilltoppers should also get an at-large bowl bid.  It would be their first bowl as well.

 

1. GoDaddy—Arkansas State (already accepted) vs. Northern Illinois

2. New Orleans—U. of Lousiana vs. Temple

3. Beef O’Brady’s (at-large)—Florida International vs. South Florida

4. BVAA Compass (at-large)—Western Kentucky vs. Cincinnati

 

W A C

Without Boise State, this league has fallen a couple notches this year.  Louisiana Tech will win the conference championship this week when they defeat New Mexico State in Ruston.

 

Hawaii will dismiss Tulane this week, but they must also beat BYU to secure a spot in the Hawaii Bowl.  We smell an at-large invitation being mailed out.

 

1. New Mexico—Louisiana Tech vs. Wyoming

2. Famous Idaho Potato—Nevada vs. Boise State

3. Poinsettia—Utah State vs. San Diego State

4. Hawaii—XXX

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

# Team PiRate
1 L S U 136.5
2 Alabama 135.0
3 Oregon 129.0
4 Southern Cal 127.1
5 Oklahoma 127.1
6 Stanford 127.1
7 Oklahoma St. 126.3
8 Arkansas 124.9
9 Wisconsin 124.1
10 TexasA&M 121.5
11 Boise St. 120.3
12 Michigan 119.7
13 Florida St. 119.1
14 Michigan St. 118.3
15 Georgia  117.8
16 Notre Dame 116.8
17 Houston 115.8
18 Missouri 114.9
19 Texas 114.6
20 S. Carolina 114.4
21 Kansas St. 114.2
22 T C U 114.1
23 Utah 112.8
24 California 112.8
25 Virginia Tech 112.3
26 Miami(FL) 112.3
27 Florida  111.8
28 Nebraska 111.4
29 Baylor 111.0
30 Tulsa 110.5
31 Arizona St. 110.0
32 B Y U 109.9
33 Clemson 109.6
34 Penn St. 108.4
35 Mississippi St. 108.1
36 U C L A 108.0
37 Ohio St. 107.4
38 Virginia 107.3
39 Vanderbilt 107.1
40 W. Virginia 107.0
41 Washington 107.0
42 Georgia Tech 106.4
43 Cincinnati 106.1
44 N. Carolina St. 105.9
45 Iowa 104.9
46 LouisianaTech 104.9
47 Oregon St. 104.9
48 Pittsburgh 104.6
49 Nevada 104.6
50 WakeForest 104.5
51 N. Carolina 104.2
52 Arizona 103.9
53 Auburn 103.6
54 Washington St. 103.6
55 Northwestern 103.4
56 Iowa St. 103.3
57 Southern Miss. 103.1
58 S. Florida 102.9
59 Tennessee 102.9
60 Illinois 102.0
61 Rutgers 102.0
62 BostonColl. 101.6
63 Louisville 101.5
64 Temple 99.6
65 Toledo 99.4
66 TexasTech 99.0
67 Purdue 98.6
68 Air Force 98.6
69 Utah St. 98.1
70 San Diego St. 97.1
71 Northern Illinois 96.6
72 Duke 96.1
73 Navy 95.4
74 Wyoming 95.2
75 Central Florida 94.6
76 Arkansas St. 94.5
77 Connecticut 94.0
78 Kentucky 93.7
79 Western Michigan 93.6
80 Hawaii 93.5
81 Minnesota 93.2
82 S M U 93.0
83 San Jose St. 92.8
84 Fresno St. 92.0
85 East Carolina 91.9
86 Colorado 91.6
87 Maryland 91.4
88 Syracuse 91.3
89 Miami(O) 90.6
90 Ole Miss 89.3
91 FloridaInt’l 89.1
92 OhioU 88.7
93 WesternKy. 88.6
94 Kansas 87.8
95 U T E P 86.1
96 UL-Lafayette 85.7
97 Colorado St. 85.4
98 Idaho 85.3
99 UL-Monroe 84.8
100 New Mexico St. 84.6
101 Marshall 84.4
102 Ball St. 83.4
103 Army 83.0
104 Rice 82.8
105 Bowling Green 82.7
106 U A B 82.2
107 Kent St. 81.7
108 Indiana 81.7
109 Eastern Michigan 80.4
110 North Texas 79.3
111 Buffalo 77.5
112 U N L V 77.4
113 Troy 76.9
114 Central Michigan 76.5
115 MiddleTennessee 72.8
116 New Mexico 71.1
117 Tulane 68.7
118 Memphis 68.2
119 FloridaAtlantic 61.8
120 Akron 59.1

 

By Conference

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

FloridaState

5-3

7-4

119.1

Clemson

6-2

9-2

109.6

North CarolinaState

3-4

6-5

105.9

WakeForest

5-3

6-5

104.5

BostonCollege

2-5

3-8

101.6

Maryland

1-6

2-9

91.4

       
Coastal Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Virginia Tech

6-1

10-1

112.3

Miami-FL

3-4

6-5

112.3

Virginia

5-2

8-3

107.3

Georgia Tech

5-3

8-3

106.4

North Carolina

2-5

6-5

104.2

Duke

1-6

3-8

96.1

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

West Virginia

3-2

7-3

107.0

Cincinnati

3-2

7-3

106.1

Pittsburgh

3-2

5-5

104.6

South Florida

1-4

5-5

102.9

Rutgers

4-2

8-3

102.0

Louisville

4-2

6-5

101.5

Connecticut

2-3

4-6

94.0

Syracuse

1-4

5-5

91.3

 

Big Ten

       
Leaders Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Wisconsin

5-2

9-2

124.1

PennState

6-1

9-2

108.4

OhioState

3-4

6-5

107.4

Illinois

2-5

6-5

102.0

Purdue

3-4

5-6

98.6

Indiana

0-7

1-10

81.7

       
Legends Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Michigan

5-2

9-2

119.7

MichiganState

6-1

9-2

118.3

Nebraska

4-3

8-3

111.4

Iowa

4-3

7-4

104.9

Northwestern

3-4

6-5

103.4

Minnesota

1-6

2-9

93.2

 

Big 12

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Oklahoma

5-2

8-2

127.1

OklahomaState

7-1

10-1

126.3

TexasA&M

4-4

6-5

121.5

Missouri

4-4

6-5

114.9

Texas

3-4

6-4

114.6

KansasState

6-2

9-2

114.2

Baylor

4-3

7-3

111.0

IowaState

3-4

6-4

103.3

TexasTech

2-6

5-6

99.0

Kansas

0-8

2-9

87.8

 

Conference USA

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Southern Mississippi

5-2

9-2

103.1

Central Florida

2-5

4-7

94.6

East Carolina

4-3

5-6

91.9

Marshall

4-3

5-6

84.4

U A B

3-5

3-8

82.2

Memphis

1-5

2-9

68.2

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Houston

7-0

11-0

115.8

Tulsa

7-0

8-3

110.5

S M U

4-3

6-5

93.0

U T E P

2-5

5-6

86.1

Rice

3-4

4-7

82.8

Tulane

1-7

2-10

68.7

 

Independents

       
Team

 

Overall

Rating

Notre Dame  

8-3

116.8

B Y U  

8-3

109.9

Navy  

4-7

95.4

Army  

3-8

83.0

 

Mid American Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Temple

4-3

7-4

99.6

Miami(O)

3-4

4-7

90.6

OhioU

5-2

8-3

88.7

Bowling Green

2-5

4-7

82.7

Kent St.

4-3

5-6

81.7

Buffalo

2-5

3-8

77.5

Akron

0-7

1-10

59.1

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Toledo

6-1

7-4

99.4

Northern Illinois

6-1

8-3

96.6

Western Michigan

4-3

6-5

93.6

BallState

4-3

6-5

83.4

Eastern Michigan

4-3

6-5

80.4

Central Michigan

2-6

3-9

76.5

 

Mountain West Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

BoiseState

4-1

9-1

120.3

T C U

6-0

9-2

114.1

Air Force

2-4

6-5

98.6

San DiegoState

3-3

6-4

97.1

Wyoming

4-1

7-3

95.2

ColoradoState

1-4

3-7

85.4

UNLV

1-4

2-8

77.4

New Mexico

1-5

1-10

71.1

 

Pac-12 Conference

       
North Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Oregon

7-1

9-2

129.0

Stanford

8-1

10-1

127.1

California

3-5

6-5

112.8

Washington

4-4

6-5

107.0

OregonState

3-5

3-8

104.9

WashingtonState

2-6

4-7

103.6

       
South Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

U S C

6-2

9-2

127.1

Utah

4-4

7-4

112.8

ArizonaState

4-4

6-5

110.0

U C L A

5-3

6-5

108.0

Arizona

2-6

3-8

103.9

Colorado

1-7

2-10

91.6

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Georgia

7-1

9-2

117.8

South Carolina

6-2

9-2

114.4

Florida

3-5

6-5

111.8

Vanderbilt

2-6

5-6

107.1

Tennessee

1-6

5-6

102.9

Kentucky

1-6

4-7

93.7

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

L S U

7-0

11-0

136.5

Alabama

6-1

10-1

135.0

Arkansas

6-1

10-1

124.9

MississippiState

1-6

5-6

108.1

Auburn

4-3

7-4

103.6

Ole Miss

0-7

2-9

89.3

 

Sunbelt Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

ArkansasState

7-0

9-2

94.5

FloridaInternational

4-3

7-4

89.1

Western Kentucky

6-1

6-5

88.6

U.ofLouisiana

6-2

8-3

85.7

Louisiana-Monroe

2-5

3-8

84.8

North Texas

3-4

4-7

79.3

Troy

2-4

3-7

76.9

MiddleTennessee

1-5

2-8

72.8

FloridaAtlantic

0-7

0-10

61.8

 

Western Athletic Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

LouisianaTech

5-1

7-4

104.9

Nevada

4-1

6-4

104.6

UtahState

3-2

5-5

98.1

Hawaii

3-4

5-6

93.5

San JoseState

2-4

4-7

92.8

FresnoState

3-3

4-7

92.0

Idaho

1-5

2-9

85.3

New MexicoState

2-3

4-7

84.6

 

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings

   

 

 

 

Tuesday, November 22  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

OHIO U Miami (O)

0.6

27-26

8 1/2

   

 

 

 

Thursday, November 24  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

TEXAS A&M Texas

9.9

34-24

8   

   

 

 

 

Friday, November 25  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

Bowling Green BUFFALO

2.7

27-24

-1 1/2

NORTHERN ILLINOIS Eastern Michigan

19.2

40-21

20   

TEMPLE Kent St.

20.4

30-10

17   

WESTERN MICHIGAN Akron

37.5

48-10

28   

Toledo BALL ST.

13.2

37-24

12 1/2

SOUTH FLORIDA Louisville

4.4

24-20

3   

Houston TULSA

2.3

37-35

3   

NEBRASKA Iowa

9.5

24-14

9 1/2

WEST VIRGINIA Pittsburgh

4.9

28-23

7   

L S U Arkansas

14.6

35-20

12 1/2

UTAH Colorado

24.2

38-14

20 1/2

MIAMI (FL) Boston College

14.2

27-13

14 ½

CENTRAL FLORIDA U t e p

11.5

35-23

10   

ARIZONA ST. California

0.2

27-27 to ot

5 ½

   

 

 

 

Saturday, November 26  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

MICHIGAN Ohio St.

15.3

24-9

8   

Missouri   (n) Kansas

27.1

41-14

23 ½

Rutgers CONNECTICUT

5.5

30-24

3   

Cincinnati SYRACUSE

11.8

31-19

3   

Michigan St. NORTHWESTERN

11.9

40-28

6 1/2

Purdue INDIANA

14.4

35-21

7 1/2

Illinois MINNESOTA

5.8

28-22

10 1/2

Georgia GEORGIA TECH

8.9

33-24

6   

WAKE FOREST Vanderbilt

0.4

28-28 to ot

-1 1/2

SOUTH CAROLINA Clemson

7.3

28-21

4   

NORTH CAROLINA ST. Maryland

17.5

35-17

12 1/2

NORTH CAROLINA Duke

10.1

34-24

13   

Tennessee KENTUCKY

6.2

20-14

8   

BOISE ST. Wyoming

28.1

45-17

32   

Nevada UTAH ST.

3.5

31-27

-1 1/2

S M U Rice

13.2

34-21

14   

Alabama AUBURN

28.4

41-13

21   

OREGON Oregon St.

27.1

48-21

28   

Virginia Tech VIRGINIA

2.0

22-20

5   

WISCONSIN Penn St.

18.7

31-12

14 1/2

Baylor     (n) Texas Tech

12.0

40-28

12 1/2

Florida St. FLORIDA

4.3

30-26

2 1/2

East Carolina MARSHALL

4.5

35-30

1   

LOUISIANA TECH New Mexico St.

13.3

31-18

19   

SOUTHERN MISS. Memphis

37.4

40-3

35 1/2

Air Force COLORADO ST.

10.7

31-20

16 1/2

WASHINGTON Washington St.

6.4

27-21

6 1/2

MISSISSIPPI ST. Ole Miss

21.8

35-13

17 1/2

STANFORD Notre Dame

13.3

34-21

6 1/2

FRESNO ST. San Jose St.

2.2

27-25

6 1/2

OKLAHOMA Iowa St.

26.8

45-18

28   

San Diego St. U N L V

17.2

34-17

15   

SOUTHERN CAL U c l a

21.1

38-17

14 1/2

HAWAII Tulane

28.8

42-13

18   

WESTERN KENTUCKY Troy

14.7

27-12

6 1/2

ARIZONA Louisiana-Lafayette

21.2

42-21

14   

Florida Int’l MIDDLE TENNESSEE

13.3

27-14

9   

U a b FLORIDA ATLANTIC

17.4

34-17

6 1/2

 

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