The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 15, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 7, October 18-22, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Arizona Denver 1.4 0.8 1.7 40
L.A. Chargers [London] Tennessee 5.5 6.3 6.6 42.5
Indianapolis Buffalo 4.3 2.9 4.3 40.5
Philadelphia Carolina 2.7 3.4 2.3 45.5
Kansas City Cincinnati 9.9 9.8 10.3 50
Tampa Bay Cleveland 2.8 2.4 2.8 47.5
Miami Detroit -1.0 -1.6 -1.1 48.5
Jacksonville Houston 5.2 5.2 5.7 44
N.Y. Jets Minnesota -0.4 -1.0 -0.2 45.5
Chicago New England 0.0 -1.0 0.3 44
Baltimore New Orleans -0.1 0.5 0.0 47.5
Washington Dallas 1.3 0.6 2.2 42.5
San Francisco L.A. Rams -10.4 -10.8 -10.7 50.5
Atlanta N.Y. Giants 8.3 8.2 8.1 47

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 105.0 105.4 105.1 105.2 22.5 4-2
N. Y. Jets 98.5 98.2 98.7 98.5 24 3-3
Miami 97.2 96.8 97.3 97.1 22 4-2
Buffalo 93.8 93.8 93.5 93.7 15.5 2-4
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 105.6 105.7 105.3 105.5 23 3-2-1
Baltimore 104.7 105.3 105.0 105.0 21 4-2
Cincinnati 99.9 100.3 99.9 100.0 23 4-2
Cleveland 95.0 95.3 95.7 95.3 23 2-3-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 101.1 101.0 101.3 101.1 20 3-3
Houston 98.4 98.3 98.1 98.2 24 3-3
Tennessee 96.9 96.9 96.2 96.7 19 3-3
Indianapolis 95.6 94.2 95.3 95.0 25 1-5
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 106.8 107.2 107.2 107.1 27 5-1
LA Chargers 102.4 103.2 102.8 102.8 23.5 4-2
Denver 97.4 97.1 96.8 97.1 21.5 2-4
Oakland 93.1 93.3 92.9 93.1 21 1-5
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 102.0 102.1 101.7 101.9 22.5 3-3
Dallas 100.5 100.4 99.9 100.3 20 3-3
Washington 99.3 98.5 99.6 99.1 22.5 3-2
N.Y. Giants 95.5 95.3 95.4 95.4 21.5 1-5
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Chicago 102.4 102.0 102.9 102.4 21.5 3-2
Minnesota 102.0 102.2 101.9 102.0 21.5 3-2-1
Detroit 100.7 100.9 100.9 100.8 26.5 2-3
Green Bay 99.4 100.1 99.0 99.5 24.5 3-2-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 107.8 107.8 108.0 107.9 26.5 4-1
Carolina 101.9 101.2 101.8 101.6 23 3-2
Atlanta 101.3 101.1 101.0 101.1 25.5 2-4
Tampa Bay 95.3 95.2 96.0 95.5 24.5 2-3
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 108.1 108.9 108.4 108.5 26.5 6-0
Seattle 102.1 102.0 102.4 102.2 22.5 3-3
Arizona 95.8 95.0 95.5 95.4 18.5 1-5
San Francisco 94.7 95.1 94.7 94.8 24 1-5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Kansas City
2 New England
3 Baltimore
4 Houston
5 L.A. Chargers
6 Pittsburgh

 

NFC Seeding
1 L.A. Rams
2 New Orleans
3 Philadelphia
4 Chicago
5 Carolina
6 Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round
Baltimore over Pittsburgh
L.A. Chargers over Houston
Philadelphia over Minnesota
Carolina over Chicago

 

Divisional Round
L.A. Chargers over Kansas City
Baltimore over New England
L.A. Rams over Carolina
Philadelphia over New Orleans

 

Conference Championship
Baltimore over L.A. Chargers
L.A. Rams over Philadelphia

 

Super Bowl 53
L.A. Rams over Baltimore

 

 

 

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October 8, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 6, October 11-15, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
N.Y. Giants Philadelphia -2.6 -2.7 -1.8 44.0
Atlanta Tampa Bay 8.7 8.8 8.1 49.0
Washington Carolina -0.9 -1.4 -1.2 45.5
Oakland [London] Seattle -6.8 -6.3 -6.9 44.0
N.Y. Jets Indianapolis 5.8 6.8 5.7 47.0
Minnesota Arizona 9.2 10.3 9.4 40.0
Cincinnati Pittsburgh -2.3 -1.8 -1.4 46.0
Cleveland L.A. Chargers -1.4 -1.9 -0.7 46.5
Houston Buffalo 8.0 7.7 7.8 40.5
Miami Chicago -2.5 -2.6 -3.2 42.0
Denver L.A. Rams -8.1 -9.4 -9.4 48.0
Tennessee Baltimore -2.0 -2.5 -2.7 42.0
Dallas Jacksonville -1.3 -1.2 -2.1 40.0
New England Kansas City 1.0 1.1 0.5 48.0
Green Bay San Francisco 8.1 8.4 7.7 47.5

Detroit and New Orleans have Byes

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 104.9 105.3 104.9 105.0 21.5 3-2
N. Y. Jets 98.4 98.1 98.4 98.3 23 2-3
Miami 97.1 96.6 97.0 96.9 21.5 3-2
Buffalo 93.6 93.7 93.4 93.5 16 2-3
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 105.0 105.0 104.4 104.8 23 2-2-1
Baltimore 103.5 104.0 103.6 103.7 22 3-2
Cincinnati 100.2 100.7 100.5 100.5 23 4-1
Cleveland 96.5 96.8 97.4 96.9 23 2-2-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 103.1 103.0 103.3 103.1 21 3-2
Houston 98.6 98.4 98.2 98.4 24.5 2-3
Tennessee 98.4 98.5 97.9 98.3 20 3-2
Indianapolis 95.7 94.3 95.6 95.2 24 1-4
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 106.9 107.3 107.4 107.2 26.5 5-0
LA Chargers 100.9 101.7 101.1 101.3 23.5 3-2
Denver 97.2 96.8 96.4 96.8 21.5 2-3
Oakland 94.2 94.5 94.2 94.3 21.5 1-4
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 101.2 101.2 100.6 101.0 22.5 2-3
Dallas 98.8 98.7 98.2 98.6 19 2-3
Washington 98.9 97.9 98.9 98.6 22.5 2-2
N.Y. Giants 96.6 96.5 96.8 96.6 21.5 1-4
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Chicago 102.5 102.2 103.2 102.6 20.5 3-1
Minnesota 102.0 102.2 101.9 102.0 21.5 2-2-1
Detroit 100.4 100.6 100.6 100.5 26.5 2-3
Green Bay 99.6 100.3 99.2 99.7 24 2-2-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 107.5 107.5 107.7 107.6 26.5 4-1
Carolina 102.3 101.8 102.5 102.2 23 3-1
Atlanta 101.4 101.3 101.3 101.3 25 1-4
Tampa Bay 95.2 95.0 95.7 95.3 24 2-2
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 108.3 109.2 108.8 108.8 26.5 5-0
Seattle 101.0 100.8 101.1 101.0 22.5 2-3
Arizona 95.8 95.0 95.5 95.4 18.5 1-4
San Francisco 94.5 94.9 94.5 94.6 23.5 1-4

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Kansas City
2 New England
3 Cincinnati
4 Jacksonville
5 L.A. Chargers
6 Baltimore

 

NFC Seeding
1 L.A. Rams
2 New Orleans
3 Chicago
4 Philadelphia
5 Carolina
6 Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round
Cincinnati over Baltimore
L.A. Chargers over Jacksonville
Chicago over Minnesota
Carolina over Philadelphia

 

Divisional Round
Kansas City over L.A. Chargers
New England over Cincinnati
L.A. Rams over Carolina
New Orleans over Chicago

 

Conference Championship
Kansas City over New England
L.A. Rams over New Orleans

 

Super Bowl 53
Kansas City over L.A. Rams

 

 

 

 

 

September 25, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 4: September 27-October 1, 2018

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:31 am

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
L.A. Rams Minnesota 9.8 11.1 11.1 45
Jacksonville N.Y. Jets 6.8 6.8 7.0 44
New England Miami 6.2 7.3 5.4 42
Tennessee Philadelphia -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 43
Indianapolis Houston -0.1 -1.6 0.5 46
Green Bay Buffalo 7.8 8.7 7.5 41.5
Dallas Detroit 2.1 2.1 1.5 45
Chicago Tampa Bay 4.1 4.0 4.3 41.5
Atlanta Cincinnati 7.4 6.5 7.4 44.5
Arizona Seattle -3.2 -3.8 -3.5 40.5
Oakland Cleveland 1.2 1.5 0.4 43
N.Y. Giants New Orleans -3.6 -3.5 -3.4 43.5
L.A. Chargers San Francisco 8.2 8.4 8.3 45
Pittsburgh Baltimore 6.4 5.6 5.4 46
Denver Kansas City -5.2 -5.8 -6.3 48

Bye Week: Carolina & Washington

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 102.6 103.1 102.2 102.6 20.5 1-2
Miami 99.4 98.9 99.8 99.3 21.5 3-0
N. Y. Jets 98.6 98.3 98.6 98.5 23 1-2
Buffalo 94.4 94.4 94.2 94.3 18 1-2
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 105.2 105.1 104.4 104.9 23 1-1-1
Baltimore 101.8 102.5 102.0 102.1 23 2-1
Cincinnati 99.4 100.0 99.4 99.6 22 2-1
Cleveland 96.1 96.2 97.0 96.4 22 1-1-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 102.9 102.7 103.1 102.9 21 2-1
Tennessee 98.5 98.7 98.3 98.5 20.5 2-1
Houston 98.4 98.3 97.9 98.2 24 0-3
Indianapolis 95.8 94.2 95.8 95.3 22 1-2
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 105.6 106.0 106.0 105.9 26.5 3-0
LA Chargers 100.8 101.6 101.0 101.2 22.5 1-2
Denver 97.9 97.6 97.2 97.6 21.5 2-1
Oakland 94.8 95.2 94.9 95.0 21 0-3
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 101.6 101.6 101.0 101.4 22.5 2-1
Washington 101.1 100.1 101.1 100.8 21.5 2-1
Dallas 99.2 99.1 98.7 99.0 19.5 1-2
N.Y. Giants 97.7 97.7 97.9 97.8 19 1-2
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Minnesota 101.6 101.6 101.2 101.5 20 1-1-1
Detroit 100.1 100.1 100.2 100.1 25.5 1-2
Chicago 99.5 99.2 100.2 99.6 18 2-1
Green Bay 99.2 100.1 98.7 99.3 23.5 1-1-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Atlanta 104.2 104.1 104.4 104.2 22.5 1-2
New Orleans 103.8 103.7 103.8 103.8 24.5 2-1
Carolina 102.4 101.9 102.8 102.4 22 2-1
Tampa Bay 97.9 97.7 98.4 98.0 23.5 2-1
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 108.4 109.7 109.3 109.1 25 3-0
Seattle 100.9 100.5 100.8 100.7 22 1-2
San Francisco 95.7 96.2 95.7 95.9 22.5 1-2
Arizona 94.7 93.7 94.2 94.2 18.5 0-3

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Kansas City
2 Miami
3 Baltimore
4 Tennessee
5 New England
6 Jacksonville

 

NFC Seeding
1 L.A. Rams
2 Carolina
3 Philadelphia
4 Chicago
5 New Orleans
6 Washington

 

Wildcard Round
Jacksonville over Baltimore
New England over Tennessee
Philadelphia over Washington
New Orleans over Chicago
Divisional Round
Kansas City over Jacksonville
Miami over New England
L.A. Rams over New Orleans
Philadelphia over Carolina
Conference Championship
Kansas City over Miami
L.A. Rams over Philadelphia
Super Bowl 53
L.A. Rams over Kansas City

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 18, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 3: September 20-24, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Cleveland N.Y. Jets 0.1 0.3 0.6 45
Philadelphia Indianapolis 12.3 14.4 11.9 45
Carolina Cincinnati 5.2 4.1 5.2 43
Jacksonville Tennessee 10.4 10.1 11.2 42.5
Atlanta New Orleans 3.5 3.5 3.7 45
Baltimore Denver 5.9 6.9 6.6 44.5
Houston N.Y. Giants 5.4 5.4 5.1 43
Miami Oakland 7.8 6.8 8.2 42.5
Washington Green Bay 2.1 -0.2 2.2 45
Minnesota Buffalo 16.0 16.3 16.2 38
Kansas City San Francisco 9.5 9.4 9.9 49
L.A. Rams L.A. Chargers 6.7 7.3 7.3 47
Arizona Chicago -1.6 -2.3 -2.8 37.5
Seattle Dallas 3.7 3.2 3.7 41.5
Detroit New England -3.3 -4.3 -3.2 47
Tampa Bay Pittsburgh -5.2 -5.3 -3.9 45.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 104.4 105.1 104.2 104.6 21 1-1
Miami 99.2 98.6 99.6 99.1 21.5 2-0
N. Y. Jets 98.7 98.5 98.9 98.7 23 1-1
Buffalo 91.4 91.3 91.0 91.2 18 0-2
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 105.1 105.0 104.3 104.8 22.5 0-1-1
Baltimore 101.2 101.9 101.3 101.5 23 1-1
Cincinnati 99.7 100.3 99.9 100.0 21.5 2-0
Cleveland 95.8 95.8 96.5 96.0 22 0-1-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 104.3 104.2 104.7 104.4 21.5 2-0
Houston 99.2 99.2 98.9 99.1 24 0-2
Tennessee 96.9 97.0 96.5 96.8 21 1-1
Indianapolis 95.0 93.1 94.8 94.3 22 1-1
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 105.3 105.7 105.7 105.6 25.5 2-0
LA Chargers 101.1 101.9 101.4 101.5 22 1-1
Denver 98.3 98.0 97.7 98.0 21.5 2-0
Oakland 94.8 95.3 94.9 95.0 21 0-2
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 102.2 102.5 101.8 102.2 23 1-1
Dallas 99.6 99.6 99.3 99.5 19.5 1-1
Washington 99.6 98.4 99.4 99.1 21.5 1-1
N.Y. Giants 96.8 96.7 96.8 96.8 19 0-2
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Minnesota 104.4 104.5 104.2 104.4 20 1-0-1
Green Bay 100.5 101.6 100.2 100.7 23.5 1-0-1
Chicago 99.3 99.0 100.0 99.4 18.5 1-1
Detroit 98.1 97.9 98.0 98.0 26 0-2
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Atlanta 104.4 104.3 104.6 104.4 21.5 1-1
New Orleans 103.4 103.3 103.4 103.4 23.5 1-1
Carolina 101.9 101.4 102.1 101.8 21.5 1-1
Tampa Bay 97.9 97.7 98.4 98.0 23 2-0
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 107.9 109.2 108.7 108.6 25 2-0
Seattle 100.3 99.8 100.0 100.0 22 0-2
San Francisco 98.8 99.3 98.8 99.0 23.5 1-1
Arizona 94.7 93.7 94.2 94.2 19 0-2

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Kansas City
2 Jacksonville
3 New England
4 Cincinnati
5 Miami
6 L.A. Chargers

 

NFC Seeding
1 L.A. Rams
2 Minnesota
3 Philadelphia
4 Tampa Bay
5 Green Bay
6 Atlanta

 

Wildcard Round
L.A. Chargers over New England
Miami over Cincinnati
Philadelphia over Atlanta
Green Bay over Tampa Bay

 

Divisional Round
L.A. Chargers over Kansas City
Jacksonville over Miami
L.A. Rams over Green Bay
Minnesota over Philadelphia

 

Conference Championship
Jacksonville over L.A. Chargers
L.A. Rams over Minnesota

 

Super Bowl 53
L.A. Rams over Jacksonville

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 11, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 2: September 13-17, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Week Number: 2
Date of Games: September 13-17
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Cincinnati Baltimore -0.7 -1.0 -1.0 43.5
Washington Indianapolis 10.9 12.3 11.5 44.5
Atlanta Carolina 4.7 4.9 4.5 42
Green Bay Minnesota -1.1 0.1 -1.4 42
Buffalo L.A. Chargers -5.5 -6.3 -5.7 39
Tennessee Houston 0.2 0.4 0.1 46
Pittsburgh Kansas City 4.4 4.2 3.4 46.5
N.Y. Jets Miami 5.1 5.8 5.2 45
Tampa Bay Philadelphia -2.3 -3.4 -1.3 46
New Orleans Cleveland 12.7 12.8 12.4 46.5
L.A. Rams Arizona 11.9 13.9 12.9 45
San Francisco Detroit 3.7 4.4 3.8 49
Jacksonville New England 0.8 -0.3 1.0 41.5
Denver Oakland 6.8 6.0 6.1 42.5
Dallas N.Y. Giants 5.3 5.4 5.0 39.5
Chicago Seattle 1.2 1.1 1.9 40.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 105.3 106.1 105.3 105.6 20 1-0
N. Y. Jets 99.8 99.8 100.2 99.9 23.5 1-0
Miami 97.8 97.0 98.0 97.6 21.5 1-0
Buffalo 92.2 92.1 92.0 92.1 18 0-1
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 105.4 105.4 104.7 105.2 22 0-0-1
Baltimore 102.3 103.1 102.6 102.7 23 1-0
Cincinnati 98.6 99.1 98.6 98.8 20.5 1-0
Cleveland 95.0 94.9 95.5 95.1 22 0-0-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 103.1 102.9 103.3 103.1 21.5 1-0
Houston 99.2 99.2 98.9 99.1 24.5 0-1
Tennessee 96.9 97.0 96.5 96.8 21.5 0-1
Indianapolis 93.6 91.4 93.1 92.7 22.5 0-1
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 104.0 104.3 104.3 104.2 24.5 1-0
LA Chargers 100.6 101.4 100.7 100.9 21 0-1
Denver 98.6 98.3 98.0 98.3 21.5 1-0
Oakland 94.8 95.3 94.9 95.0 21 0-1
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 102.7 103.3 102.3 102.8 23 1-0
Washington 101.5 100.6 101.6 101.2 22 1-0
Dallas 99.5 99.5 99.2 99.4 20 0-1
N.Y. Giants 97.2 97.1 97.2 97.2 19.5 0-1
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Minnesota 104.5 104.5 104.4 104.5 19.5 1-0
Green Bay 100.4 101.6 100.0 100.6 22.5 1-0
Chicago 99.0 98.6 99.6 99.1 18.5 0-1
Detroit 98.1 97.9 98.0 98.0 25.5 0-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 104.7 104.7 104.9 104.8 24.5 0-1
Atlanta 104.2 104.1 104.4 104.2 21 0-1
Carolina 102.1 101.6 102.3 102.0 21 1-0
Tampa Bay 97.4 96.9 97.9 97.4 23 1-0
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 105.7 106.8 106.4 106.3 25.5 1-0
Seattle 100.9 100.5 100.7 100.7 22 0-1
San Francisco 98.8 99.3 98.8 99.0 23.5 0-1
Arizona 96.3 95.5 95.9 95.9 19.5 0-1

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 New England
2 Kansas City
3 Jacksonville
4 Baltimore
5 Pittsburgh
6 New York Jets
NFC Seeding
1 L.A. Rams
2 Minnesota
3 Philadelphia
4 Carolina
5 Green Bay
6 Washington
Wildcard Round
N.Y. Jets over Jacksonville
Baltimore over Pittsburgh
Philadelphia over Washington
Green Bay over Carolina
Divisional Round
New England over N.Y. Jets
Baltimore over Kansas City
L.A. Rams over Green Bay
Minnesota over Philadelphia
Conference Championship
New England over Baltimore
L.A. Rams over Minnesota
Super Bowl 53
L.A. Rams over New England

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 2, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 1: September 6-10, 2018

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:13 am

PiRate Ratings NFL Ratings for Week 1

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
New England 105.4 106.2 105.4 105.7 20
Miami 97.4 96.4 97.4 97.0 21.5
N. Y. Jets 96.8 96.8 97.2 96.9 22.5
Buffalo 95.4 95.3 95.2 95.3 18.5
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Pittsburgh 106.0 106.2 105.6 105.9 22
Baltimore 99.6 100.4 99.9 100.0 23
Cincinnati 97.5 97.6 97.3 97.5 20
Cleveland 94.4 94.1 94.6 94.4 22
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Jacksonville 103.1 102.9 103.3 103.1 21.5
Houston 99.1 99.1 98.8 99.0 24.5
Tennessee 97.3 97.6 97.1 97.3 21.5
Indianapolis 94.7 92.9 94.4 94.0 22
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Kansas City 102.7 102.7 102.8 102.7 23.5
LA Chargers 101.9 103.0 102.2 102.4 20
Denver 98.5 98.1 97.7 98.1 21
Oakland 95.9 96.4 96.2 96.2 21
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Philadelphia 102.5 103.1 101.9 102.5 23.5
Dallas 99.7 99.8 99.5 99.7 21
Washington 98.5 97.6 98.6 98.2 22
N.Y. Giants 97.2 97.1 97.2 97.2 19.5
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Minnesota 104.5 104.5 104.4 104.5 19.5
Detroit 101.1 100.9 101.0 101.0 24.5
Green Bay 100.6 102.1 100.3 101.0 22.5
Chicago 98.8 98.1 99.3 98.7 18.5
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
New Orleans 107.2 107.2 107.4 107.3 23.5
Atlanta 104.4 104.3 104.8 104.5 21.5
Carolina 101.9 101.3 102.0 101.7 22
Tampa Bay 94.4 93.9 94.9 94.4 22
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
LA Rams 104.6 105.7 105.1 105.1 25.5
Seattle 101.0 100.7 101.0 100.9 21.5
San Francisco 98.8 99.3 98.8 99.0 23.5
Arizona 99.3 98.5 98.9 98.9 20.5

Week 1 PiRate Ratings Spread & Totals

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Philadelphia Atlanta 0.6 1.4 -0.4 45
Cleveland Pittsburgh -9.5 -10.1 -9.0 44
Minnesota San Francisco 9.2 8.7 9.1 43
Indianapolis Cincinnati -0.8 -2.8 -0.9 42
Baltimore Buffalo 7.7 8.6 8.2 41.5
N.Y. Giants Jacksonville -3.9 -3.7 -4.1 41
New Orleans Tampa Bay 15.8 16.3 15.5 45.5
New England Houston 8.8 9.7 9.1 44.5
Miami Tennessee 2.0 0.8 2.3 43
L.A. Chargers Kansas City 2.3 3.3 2.4 43.5
Denver Seattle 0.1 -0.1 -0.8 42.5
Carolina Dallas 4.7 4.0 5.0 43
Arizona Washington 4.3 4.3 3.8 42.5
Green Bay Chicago 4.7 7.0 4.0 41
Detroit N.Y. Jets 7.2 7.1 6.8 47
Oakland L.A. Rams -6.7 -7.3 -6.9 46.5

2018-19  Won-Loss Projections & Playoff Projections

AFC
East W L T
New England 12 4 0
Miami 6 10 0
N. Y. Jets 6 10 0
Buffalo 4 12 0
North W L T
Pittsburgh 12 4 0
Baltimore 8 8 0
Cincinnati 6 10 0
Cleveland 4 12 0
South W L T
Jacksonville 10 6 0
Houston 9 7 0
Tennessee 8 8 0
Indianapolis 5 11 0
West W L T
Los Angeles 11 5 0
Kansas City 9 7 0
Denver 7 9 0
Oakland 6 10 0
N F C
East W L T
Philadelphia 10 6 0
Dallas 7 9 0
Washington 5 11 0
N.Y. Giants 4 12 0
North W L T
Minnesota 12 4 0
Green Bay 10 6 0
Detroit 9 7 0
Chicago 7 9 0
South W L T
New Orleans 11 5 0
Atlanta 10 6 0
Carolina 9 7 0
Tampa Bay 6 10 0
West W L T
Los Angeles 12 4 0
Seattle 8 8 0
Arizona 7 9 0
San Francisco 6 10 0

This Week’s NFL Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Pittsburgh
2 New England
3 L.A. Chargers
4 Jacksonville
5 Kansas City
6 Houston
NFC Seeding
1 L.A. Rams
2 Minnesota
3 New Orleans
4 Philadelphia
5 Green Bay
6 Atlanta
Wildcard Round
L.A. Chargers over Houston
Jacksonville over Kansas City
Philadelphia over Green Bay
Atlanta over New Orleans
Divisional Round
Pittsburgh over Jacksonville
New England over L.A. Chargers
L.A. Rams over Atlanta
Philadelphia over Minnesota
Conference Championship
Pittsburgh over New England
L.A. Rams over Philadelphia
Super Bowl 53
Pittsburgh over L.A. Rams

 

January 8, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Divisional Playoff Round: January 13-14, 2018

All times given are Eastern Standard

Saturday, January 13, 2018

4:35 PM on NBC

Atlanta Falcons (11-6-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (13-3-0)

PiRate: Philadelphia by 5.2

Mean: Philadelphia by 5.6

Bias: Philadelphia by 5.1

Total: 46

Estimated Realistic Score: Philadelphia 26  Atlanta 20

 

8:15 PM on CBS

Tennessee Titans (10-7-0) at New England Patriots (13-3-0)

PiRate: New England by 11.5

Mean: New England by  11.5

Bias: New England by 11.7

Total: 44

Estimated Realistic Score: New England 28  Tennessee 16

 

Sunday, January 14, 2018

1:05 PM on CBS

Jacksonville Jaguars (11-6-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3-0)

PiRate: Pittsburgh by 6.1

Mean: Pittsburgh by 6.4

Bias: Pittsburgh by 5.9

Total: 43

Estimated Realistic Score: Pittsburgh 24 Jacksonville 17

 

4:40 PM on Fox Sports

New Orleans Saints (12-5-0) at Minnesota Vikings (13-3-0)

PiRate: Minnesota by 4.7

Mean: Minnesota by 4.8

Bias: Minnesota by 4.8

Total: 46

Estimated Realistic Score: Minnesota 24  New Orleans 20

December 26, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 17: December 31, 2017

Week 17 PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Baltimore Cincinnati 13.1 12.6 13.6 38
Detroit Green Bay 3.2 3.0 3.7 46
Miami Buffalo 1.8 1.6 1.3 41
Atlanta Carolina 3.3 3.8 3.0 50
Tampa Bay New Orleans -7.9 -7.3 -8.0 49
Tennessee Jacksonville -2.4 -2.2 -2.8 45
New England N.Y. Jets 16.4 16.9 16.5 39
Indianapolis Houston 3.3 3.4 3.5 44
Pittsburgh Cleveland 18.8 18.3 21.8 39
N.Y. Giants Washington -4.9 -4.6 -5.0 42
Minnesota Chicago 12.7 12.3 13.4 34
Philadelphia Dallas 6.9 6.0 8.0 46
LA Chargers Oakland 9.3 8.4 10.2 44
Seattle Arizona 8.7 8.9 8.3 41
Denver Kansas City -6.0 -6.1 -6.4 42
LA Rams San Francisco 13.7 13.3 14.1 50

Current PiRate Ratings–12/26/2017

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 108.3 108.4 108.4 108.3 23 12-3
Buffalo 96.0 96.3 96.1 96.1 20 8-7
Miami 95.8 95.9 95.3 95.7 21 6-9
N. Y. Jets 94.3 94.0 94.4 94.3 16 5-10
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 107.0 107.1 107.2 107.1 23 12-3
Baltimore 105.5 105.7 105.6 105.6 22 9-6
Cincinnati 95.3 96.1 94.9 95.5 16 6-9
Cleveland 90.7 91.4 87.9 90.0 16 0-15
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 103.3 103.2 103.4 103.3 23 10-5
Tennessee 97.8 98.0 97.6 97.8 22 8-7
Indianapolis 92.3 92.7 91.8 92.3 22 4-11
Houston 91.0 91.2 90.4 90.9 22 3-12
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Chargers 104.5 104.1 104.7 104.4 23 8-7
Kansas City 103.1 103.2 103.5 103.3 23 9-6
Oakland 97.7 98.3 97.0 97.7 21 6-9
Denver 95.2 95.0 95.1 95.1 19 5-10
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 106.7 105.4 107.7 106.6 23 13-2
Dallas 101.8 101.4 101.7 101.7 23 8-7
Washington 98.4 98.6 98.2 98.4 24 7-8
N.Y. Giants 91.5 92.0 91.2 91.6 18 2-13
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Minnesota 107.4 107.0 108.1 107.5 18 12-3
Detroit 99.4 99.7 99.2 99.5 27 8-7
Green Bay 98.2 98.7 97.5 98.1 19 7-8
Chicago 96.7 96.8 96.7 96.7 16 5-10
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 107.4 106.8 107.9 107.4 28 11-4
Atlanta 103.9 103.7 104.1 103.9 24 9-6
Carolina 103.2 102.4 103.5 103.0 26 11-4
Tampa Bay 97.5 97.5 97.9 97.6 21 4-11
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 107.3 106.6 107.9 107.3 25 11-4
Seattle 102.9 103.0 102.3 102.7 20 9-6
Arizona 97.2 97.1 97.0 97.1 21 7-8
San Francisco 96.1 95.8 96.3 96.1 25 5-10

Playoff Scenarios

You can go to any sports site online to see the generic playoff scenarios, where you can see what must happen for each potential playoff team to earn their spot.  Let’s take a look at the logical scenarios in the order that they are most likely to occur.

AFC

Baltimore

The Ravens have the overwhelming advantage among the teams vying for the two wildcard spots.  The 4 division championships have been clinched.  Baltimore is the number 5 seed if they win at home over Cincinnati Sunday.  The Ravens have about a 75% chance of winning this game and getting in at #5.  Even if the Ravens lose to the Bengals, if Either Buffalo or Tennessee lose but not both, the Ravens still get in as the number 6 seed.  If Baltimore loses, and both Buffalo and Tennessee lose, then Baltimore stays at number 5.

Baltimore falls out of the playoffs only if they lose to Cincinnati, and both Buffalo and Tennessee win.  The Ravens have about a 95% chance of making the playoffs.

Tennessee

The Titans have the best chance of making the playoffs as the 6-seed (or even 5-seed) of the remaining contenders.  If Tennessee beats Jacksonville on Sunday, the Titans are in as the 6-seed if Baltimore wins, and the 5-seed if Baltimore loses.  What Buffalo does in this instance does not affect the Titans moving up to number 5; only what Baltimore does affects the Titans seeding if they beat a Jacksonville team that has nothing to play for (3-seed win or lose) and will most likely rest their key players.

Tennessee can still make the playoffs at 8-8 if Buffalo and the LA Chargers lose.  They hold all tiebreakers over the Bills and Chargers.

Tennessee misses out on the playoffs if the Titans lose to the Jaguars and either Buffalo or the Chargers win.  The Titans chances for making the playoffs are about 55%.

Los Angeles Chargers

This is where the scenarios get a little tricky.  First, the Chargers can only get in the playoffs if they win and Tennessee loses.  However, they still need some help.  Either Baltimore must also win or Buffalo must lose, or else the Chargers will be eliminated.  If Buffalo and Baltimore win, then the Chargers get in over the Bills, but if Buffalo wins and Baltimore loses, then the Bills take the 6-seed.  Of course, if Tennessee and Buffalo lose, and the Chargers win, then the Chargers make it over both the Titans and Bills.  The Chargers have about a 37.5% chance of making the playoffs under these scenarios.

Buffalo

The Bills are on life support with only a 1 in 10 chance of making the playoffs.  There are at least two different sets of scenarios that will get the Bills in.  If they win at Miami in what will most likely be Jay Cutler’s real swan song, then they can get in if Baltimore loses, which will then eliminate the Chargers.  They would move up to a 5-seed in this scenario if Tennessee loses or gets the 6-seed if Tennessee wins.

The Bills will also make it as the 6-seed if they win and both Tennessee and the LA Chargers lose.  They can then earn the 5-seed if Baltimore also loses.

Top Seed

New England holds the tiebreaker over Pittsburgh, so the only way the Steelers can get the top seed is for the Jets to beat the Pats, while the Steelers send Cleveland to 0-16.

 

NFC

Philadelphia has clinched the top seed.  If Minnesota beats Chicago in Minneapolis, the Vikings get the 2-seed.  Minnesota can still get the 2-seed, if they lose to the Bears, and they will still get the 2-seed unless Carolina wins, New Orleans, loses, and the Rams lose. Then, Carolina would get this seed.  Chances are better than 95% that Minnesota gets the 2-seed.

For the 3-seed, the LA Rams hold the tiebreaker over New Orleans and Carolina, while New Orleans holds the tiebreaker over Carolina.

The 5-seed will go to either Carolina or New Orleans, whichever does not win the NFC South (New Orleans has about a 60% chance and Carolina a 40% chance).

The 6-seed is what is up for grabs

Atlanta

The Falcons earn this spot with a win over Carolina or a Seattle loss to Arizona.

Seattle

The Seahawks must win and Atlanta must lose.

Here are our Playoff Projections for this week.

AFC Seeding
1 New England
2 Pittsburgh
3 Jacksonville
4 Kansas City
5 Baltimore
6 Tennessee
NFC Seeding
1 Philadelphia
2 Minnesota
3 LA Rams
4 New Orleans
5 Carolina
6 Atlanta
Wildcard Round
Kansas City over Baltimore
Jacksonville over Tennessee
Carolina over New Orleans
LA Rams over Atlanta
 
Divisional Round
New England over Kansas City
Jacksonville over Pittsburgh
Carolina over Philadelphia
LA Rams over Minnesota
 
Conference Championship
New England over Jacksonville
LA Rams over Carolina
 
Super Bowl 52
LA Rams over New England

 

 

 

December 19, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 16: December 23-25, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Baltimore Indianapolis 16.5 16.3 17.2 44
Green Bay Minnesota -6.3 -5.3 -7.6 39
Cincinnati Detroit -3.7 -3.3 -4.0 43
N. Y. Jets LA Chargers -6.6 -6.6 -6.8 41
Tennessee LA Rams -6.9 -6.0 -8.1 47
Chicago Cleveland 7.9 7.3 11.0 34
Carolina Tampa Bay 8.8 8.0 9.2 49
New Orleans Atlanta 6.0 5.7 6.4 55
Washington Denver 4.5 4.7 4.3 43
Kansas City Miami 9.8 9.7 10.5 44
New England Buffalo 14.2 13.9 14.2 42
San Francisco Jacksonville -7.3 -7.4 -7.5 45
Arizona N. Y. Giants 5.6 5.1 5.8 41
Dallas Seattle 4.1 3.5 4.8 45
Houston Pittsburgh -10.2 -10.1 -11.0 45
Philadelphia Oakland 12.9 11.0 14.8 47

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 108.0 108.1 108.1 108.0 22 11-3
Buffalo 96.3 96.6 96.4 96.4 20 8-6
Miami 96.1 96.2 95.6 96.0 21 6-8
N. Y. Jets 94.3 94.0 94.4 94.3 18 5-9
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Baltimore 105.9 106.1 106.1 106.0 22 8-6
Pittsburgh 105.6 105.7 105.8 105.7 23 11-3
Cincinnati 94.2 95.0 93.8 94.4 16 5-9
Cleveland 91.0 91.7 88.1 90.2 17 0-14
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 104.9 104.7 105.1 104.9 22 10-4
Tennessee 97.6 97.8 97.2 97.5 22 8-6
Houston 92.4 92.6 91.8 92.3 22 4-10
Indianapolis 91.9 92.3 91.3 91.8 22 3-11
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Chargers 104.5 104.1 104.7 104.4 23 7-7
Kansas City 102.8 102.9 103.2 103.0 23 8-6
Oakland 97.5 98.1 96.7 97.4 22 6-8
Denver 96.1 95.9 96.0 96.0 19 5-9
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 106.9 105.6 108.0 106.8 25 12-2
Dallas 102.9 102.4 102.9 102.8 24 8-6
Washington 97.5 97.7 97.3 97.5 24 6-8
N.Y. Giants 93.0 93.5 92.7 93.1 20 2-12
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Minnesota 106.9 106.5 107.6 107.0 18 11-3
Detroit 100.5 100.8 100.3 100.6 27 8-6
Green Bay 98.7 99.2 98.0 98.6 21 7-7
Chicago 96.4 96.5 96.5 96.5 17 4-10
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 107.2 106.6 107.7 107.2 29 10-4
Atlanta 104.1 103.9 104.3 104.1 26 9-5
Carolina 103.5 102.7 104.0 103.4 27 10-4
Tampa Bay 97.2 97.2 97.4 97.3 22 4-10
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 107.5 106.8 108.3 107.5 25 10-4
Seattle 101.8 102.0 101.1 101.6 21 8-6
Arizona 95.7 95.6 95.5 95.6 21 6-8
San Francisco 94.5 94.3 94.6 94.5 23 4-10

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 New England
2 Pittsburgh
3 Jacksonville
4 Kansas City
5 Baltimore
6 LA Chargers
   
NFC Seeding
1 Philadelphia
2 Minnesota
3 LA Rams
4 New Orleans
5 Carolina
6 Atlanta
Wildcard Round
Jacksonville over LA Chargers
Baltimore over Kansas City
LA Rams over Atlanta
New Orleans over Carolina
 
Divisional Round
New England over Baltimore
Pittsburgh over Jacksonville
New Orleans over Philadelphia
Minnesota over LA Rams
 
Conference Championship
Pittsburgh over New England
Minnesota over New Orleans
 
Super Bowl 52
Pittsburgh over Minnesota

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

December 12, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 15: December 14-18, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Indianapolis Denver 0.5 0.8 0.3 41
Detroit Chicago 6.2 6.5 5.7 45
Kansas City LA Chargers -1.7 -0.8 -2.0 46
N. Y. Giants Philadelphia -12.6 -10.6 -14.6 43
Carolina Green Bay 7.1 5.8 8.3 48
Minnesota Cincinnati 12.9 11.7 14.0 35
Buffalo Miami 2.4 2.8 2.7 41
Jacksonville Houston 11.1 10.8 11.8 44
New Orleans N. Y. Jets 16.2 16.0 16.6 47
Washington Arizona 5.4 5.5 5.3 47
Cleveland Baltimore -12.0 -11.7 -12.2 39
Seattle LA Rams 2.4 3.0 1.4 46
Pittsburgh New England 1.1 1.0 1.1 45
San Francisco Tennessee 0.2 0.0 0.7 45
Oakland Dallas -1.9 -0.9 -2.7 47
Tampa Bay Atlanta -4.5 -4.2 -4.4 48

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 107.8 107.9 107.9 107.8 22 10-3
Miami 96.5 96.5 96.1 96.4 21 6-7
Buffalo 95.9 96.3 95.9 96.0 20 7-6
N. Y. Jets 94.1 93.8 94.2 94.1 18 5-8
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 105.8 105.9 106.0 105.9 23 11-2
Baltimore 105.7 106.0 105.8 105.8 22 7-6
Cincinnati 95.6 96.4 95.2 95.8 17 5-8
Cleveland 91.2 91.8 91.1 91.3 17 0-13
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 102.7 102.6 102.8 102.7 22 9-4
Tennessee 97.7 97.8 97.3 97.6 22 8-5
Houston 94.6 94.7 94.1 94.5 22 4-9
Indianapolis 93.0 93.3 92.5 92.9 22 3-10
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Chargers 105.8 105.1 106.2 105.7 23 7-6
Kansas City 101.0 101.4 101.2 101.2 23 7-6
Oakland 97.5 98.1 96.7 97.4 23 6-7
Denver 95.0 94.9 94.8 94.9 19 4-9
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 107.4 106.0 108.8 107.4 25 11-2
Dallas 102.4 101.9 102.4 102.3 24 7-6
Washington 97.5 97.7 97.3 97.5 25 5-8
N.Y. Giants 92.8 93.4 92.2 92.8 18 2-11
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Minnesota 105.5 105.1 106.2 105.6 18 10-3
Detroit 100.3 100.6 100.0 100.3 27 7-6
Green Bay 99.4 99.9 98.7 99.3 21 7-6
Chicago 96.6 96.7 96.8 96.7 18 4-9
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 107.4 106.8 107.9 107.4 29 9-4
Atlanta 104.1 103.9 104.3 104.1 26 8-5
Carolina 103.5 102.7 104.0 103.4 27 9-4
Tampa Bay 97.2 97.2 97.4 97.3 22 4-9
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 104.9 104.4 105.5 104.9 25 9-4
Seattle 104.4 104.4 103.9 104.2 21 8-5
Arizona 95.7 95.6 95.5 95.6 22 6-7
San Francisco 94.4 94.3 94.5 94.4 23 3-10

NFL Playoff Projections

Beginning this week, we look forward predicting the outcomes of every game and then use the NFL tiebreaker system to forecast seeds.  Prior to week 15, we use only the PiRate Ratings themselves to estimate won-loss record.

This week, we have Seattle winning a tiebreaker over the Rams for the NFC West, with the Rams getting a wildcard, and we have the Saints winning a tiebreaker over the Panthers in the NFC South, with the Panthers getting the other wildcard.

In the AFC, we still show New England getting the top seed by virtue of a road win against the Steelers.  We have the Chargers edging the Chiefs in the AFC West, but we show KC getting the last playoff spot due to a possible 4-game collapse by Tennessee.

This is rather sketchy and only one possible outcome for the season.  Obviously, by this time next week, the probabilities will be drastically reduced with many key games.

AFC Seeding
1 New England
2 Pittsburgh
3 Jacksonville
4 LA Chargers
5 Baltimore
6 Kansas City
   
NFC Seeding
1 Philadelphia
2 Minnesota
3 New Orleans
4 Seattle
5 LA Rams
6 Carolina
Wildcard Round
Jacksonville over Kansas City
LA Chargers over Baltimore
New Orleans over Carolina
Seattle over LA Rams
 
Divisional Round
New England over LA Chargers
Jacksonville over Pittsburgh
Seattle over Philadelphia
Minnesota over New Orleans
 
Conference Championship
New England over Jacksonville
Minnesota over Seattle
 
Super Bowl 52
New England over Minnesota

 

 

 

 

 

 

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