The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 12, 2022

PiRate Ratings NFL Week 2, September 15-19, 2022

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:50 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
Kansas CityLA Chargers10.08.911.2
BaltimoreMiami8.37.48.0
ClevelandN.Y. Jets14.312.314.3
DetroitWashington-0.40.70.0
JacksonvilleIndianapolis-8.6-6.5-8.3
New OrleansTampa Bay-6.2-7.1-6.3
N.Y. GiantsCarolina1.12.11.8
PittsburghNew England2.32.01.9
LA RamsAtlanta18.617.718.2
San FranciscoSeattle11.712.010.4
DallasCincinnati2.31.93.0
DenverHouston15.214.514.2
Las VegasArizona9.79.08.7
Green BayChicago18.014.916.5
BuffaloTennessee14.414.114.7
PhiladelphiaMinnesota6.15.55.0

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
Kansas CityLA Chargers54
BaltimoreMiami39.5
ClevelandN.Y. Jets45.5
DetroitWashington46.5
JacksonvilleIndianapolis47
New OrleansTampa Bay46.5
N.Y. GiantsCarolina41
PittsburghNew England44
LA RamsAtlanta47.5
San FranciscoSeattle41.5
DallasCincinnati49
DenverHouston42
Las VegasArizona50
Green BayChicago40.5
BuffaloTennessee46
PhiladelphiaMinnesota48.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo110.8110.9111.0110.923.51-0
New England99.799.7100.499.9210-1
Miami99.299.799.399.4191-0
N.Y. Jets92.693.492.092.7240-1

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore104.5104.1104.4104.320.51-0
Cincinnati104.8103.9104.2104.324.50-1
Cleveland103.8102.7103.3103.321.51-0
Pittsburgh99.098.799.399.0231-0

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Indianapolis102.4101.7102.3102.1240-0-1
Tennessee99.499.899.399.522.50-1
Jacksonville90.892.291.191.4230-1
Houston88.290.288.889.021.50-0-1

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City108.3108.0108.9108.427.51-0
Las Vegas104.8104.7104.1104.5250-1
LA Chargers101.3102.1100.6101.426.51-0
Denver100.9102.2100.5101.220.50-1

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas104.1102.9104.1103.724.50-1
Philadelphia104.1103.1103.3103.5251-0
Washington97.496.997.297.2221-0
N.Y. Giants93.094.493.693.719.51-0

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay106.9105.0106.2106.0220-1
Minnesota101.1100.6101.4101.023.51-0
Detroit94.094.794.294.324.50-1
Chicago91.492.692.292.118.51-0

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay110.7110.1110.6110.525.51-0
New Orleans101.5100.0101.3100.9211-0
Carolina94.995.394.895.021.50-1
Atlanta89.990.890.390.3240-1

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
LA Rams105.6105.4105.4105.523.50-1
San Francisco102.9102.6102.8102.721.50-1
Arizona97.698.297.897.9250-1
Seattle94.193.695.494.4201-0

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1Buffalo
2Kansas City
3Pittsburgh
4Indianapolis
5LA Chargers
6Miami
7Cincinnati

NFC Seeding
1Tampa Bay
2LA Rams
3Minnesota
4Philadelphia
5New Orleans
6Green Bay
7Washington

Wildcard Round
Kansas City over Cincinnati
Miami over Pittsburgh
LA Chargers over Indianapolis
LA Rams over Washington
Minnesota over Green Bay
Philadelphia over New Orleans

Divisional Round
Buffalo over Miami
Kansas City over LA Chargers
Tampa Bay over Philadelphia
Minnesota over LA Rams

Conference Championship
Buffalo over Kansas City
Tampa Bay over Minnesota

Super Bowl 57 (Glendale, AZ)
Buffalo over Tampa Bay

September 1, 2022

PiRate Picks–September 1-5, 2022

You know what they say about a broken clock being accurate twice a day? The PiRate Ratings happened to hit the right time on our broken clock in week one. We began the season with three totals’ plays in Week 0, and by luck, all three won. So, we start the season 3-0 against the spread, but are our picks a broken clock that happened to get lucky and be broken on the right time, or did we legitimately begin the season on a winning note?

In most years, our picks begin seasons on a somewhat mediocre beginning and then hit a hot spot in October and early November. What are we to make of a 3-0 start, where if we had begun with an imaginary bank account of $1,000 and wagered $100 on each of the three picks, we would have $1,300 in our account today? Maybe, if we were smart enough, we’d cash in our winning 30% profit and go away for the season. Not many people can make a 30% profit on an investment in one year.

Ah, but here’s the rub. In actuality a 30% profit on $0 is still $0. We could lose every pick we make the rest of the season, and we will have the same amount of real money we would have if we won every wager the rest of the year, because out real investment in this is $0. We never wager real money on these picks, and please don’t do so either.

Some of you do wager for real. We hope this site is merely an addendum to your process.

We have chosen three more selections in Week 1 of the College Football Season, and the three selections involve three different types of wagers. We are going with one side, one total, and one Money Line Parlay with a potential payoff of 141.77%.

Selection #1: Florida + 2 1/2 vs. Utah

Utah probably has three key games this year, where if the Utes go 3-0, they might be 13-0 when the College Football Playoff Committee chooses the four big teams. This is one of those three. I’d really like to see this game move to 3 1/2 points, because about 1 of every 11 college football games end with a 3-point spread. However, this one is a game where we believe the wrong team might be favored. Florida was much better than their record last year. The Gators basically mailed it in the second half of the year, and Dan Mullen was shown the door. New coach Billy Napier has restored the faith at the Swamp. While this Gator team has some vulnerable areas, maybe on the offensive side of the ball, the thought here is that the defense will be fired up and play above their heads in Napier’s first game. While the average of the three PiRate Ratings show Utah to be more than a 6-point favorite in this game, the thought here is that the Gators will be a touchdown better than their real worth, and that makes Florida a slight favorite. Getting 2 1/2 points when the underdog looks like a 55% outright winner is enough to work and make this a pick.

Selection #2: Michigan and Colorado St. UNDER 61 1/2

The question here to us is, “Can Michigan score over 50 points in this game?” The reason we ask this is that Colorado State is likely to score 10 points or less trying to break in a new offense with a new coach and without the necessary players to make it work? Michigan figures to win this game by more than 4 touchdowns, more likely 5 touchdowns. A score of 45-10 looks about right here, and that’s 6 1/2 points less than the total for this game.

Selection #3: Money Line Parlay–3 games at +141.77

Pittsburgh over West Virginia

TCU over Colorado

Houston over UTSA

The Backyard Brawl to start the season is an incredible first game rivalry. Pittsburgh lost a lot of talent off last year’s team, but the Panthers had a good bit of depth. Meanwhile, West Virginia is slowly building up their talent level, but the Mountaineers have a long way to go. In fact, this could be the year where the game with Kansas determines which team finishes last in the Big 12. Pittsburgh looks 10-13 points better to start the season.

TCU starts a new era in Fort Worth for the first time since 2000. Sonny Dykes tries to give the Horned Frogs a little more offense and brings more of a passing game, air-raid style. After surprising some people in the 2020 Covid year and guiding the Buffs to four consecutive wins to start his tenure in Boulder, Colorado has since gone 4-10. This game looks like a 10-14 point win for TCU.

Houston figures to contend along with Central Florida as Cincinnati’s top competitors in the American Athletic Conference. While UTSA is a top of the food chain team in CUSA, they are not ready to stake a claim to second best team in the Lonestar State after Texas A&M. Even playing in San Antonio, the Cougars are at least a touchdown better than the Roadrunners.

Season to Date

Beginning Bankroll (not real): $1,000

Imaginary Investment Last Week: $300

Outcome 3-0

Imaginary return $600

New Bank Account: $1,300

August 16, 2022

Atlantic Coast Conference Preview

With all the rumored movement of teams from one conference to another, for now the Atlantic Coast Conference appears to be on solid ground. The league’s Grant of Rights deal with its members make it quite difficult, if not impossible for teams to exit the league. Under this deal, any team would have to forfeit all media revenue earned in another conference back to the ACC. An exit fee of $100 million or more would make leaving the ACC for the SEC or Big Ten financially unwise.

Of course, there are always loopholes that can be discovered by crafty legal departments, so impossible is not in the college football vocabulary. Impossible was a word associated with the words “beating Clemson” until last year. The Tigers failed to win the Atlantic Division for the first time 2014. Wake Forest was the surprise winner in the Atlantic, while Pittsburgh won the Coastal Division title. Wake Forest figured to be a contender for the division title again this year until last week, their starting quarterback, Sam Hartman, was ruled out indefinitely due to a non-football issue that required a surgical procedure. Hartman might return late in the season, but his loss will hit the Demon Deacons hard enough to take them out of the conference championship picture.

2022 will be the final year of divisional play in this league. Here are the preseason PiRate Ratings for the league.

ACC Preseason PiRate Ratings

Atlantic Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Clemson119.7119.5120.5119.9
NC State118.3117.3118.5118.0
Wake Forest113.9113.2113.2113.4
Florida St.111.7111.0110.9111.2
Louisville111.7110.5110.7110.9
Syracuse106.4104.8104.7105.3
Boston College100.5102.5100.2101.1
Coastal Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Pittsburgh115.9114.6114.2114.9
Miami (Fla.)115.1113.7114.9114.6
North Carolina108.0108.2107.5107.9
Virginia104.0104.2102.3103.5
Virginia Tech100.9101.398.4100.2
Georgia Tech95.695.593.694.9
Duke84.286.781.184.0
ACC107.6107.3106.5107.1

Preseason Official ACC Media Poll

Votes
#Atlantic1st PlaceOverall
1Clemson1111080
2North Carolina St.44959
3Wake Forest6783
4Louisville0591
5Florida St.2509
6Boston College1469
7Syracuse0201
#Coastal1st PlaceOverall
1Miami981036
2Pittsburgh38911
3North Carolina18823
4Virginia6667
5Virginia Tech3592
6Georgia Tech1343
7Duke0220
ChampionshipOverall
Clemson103
North Carolina St.38
Miami8
Wake Forest4
Pittsburgh3
Virginia3
Florida St.2
North Carolina2
Boston College1
Poll Taken Prior To Hartman’s Non-Football Medical Condition

The PiRate Ratings are designed to look at just the next week’s schedule of games and not to use to look forward. Nevertheless, here are the predicted won-loss records for the league.

Predicted Won-Loss Records

AtlanticConf.Overall
Clemson8-012-1
North Carolina St.7-111-1
Louisville5-38-4
Wake Forest4-48-4
Florida St.4-47-5
Syracuse2-64-8
Boston College1-74-8
CoastalConf.Overall
Miami7-110-3
Pittsburgh7-111-1
Virginia Tech4-48-4
North Carolina4-47-5
Virginia2-65-7
Georgia Tech1-72-10
Duke0-82-10

Clemson picked to win ACC Championship Game

July 31, 2022

2022 NFL Draft Grades

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:37 am

The first part of the PiRate Ratings NFL updates every year is to grade the NFL Draft. Years ago, I reverse engineered the system I have used ever since to assign each team a score between 0.0 and 5.0.

Without boring everybody with a lengthy explanation for how I come to a draft score for each team, the basics are:

1. I use 8 different pre-season Draft experts’ grading of every player that was drafted along with any unrestricted free agents that signed and carry a grade high enough to matter.

2. In each round, there is a different top score, with the higher the round, the more potential score is available. If a team drafts a top player in the first round, it counts more than if a team drafts the best possible remaining player in the 4th round, but if a team drafts a 1st round talent that falls to the 2nd round, they can score a bonus.

3. If a team doesn’t have a pick in a round, they are not really penalized, but if a team trades down in the draft for more picks than they had, they get a bonus. The reason for this is that 1/3 of all picks in the higher rounds never pan out. The best draft option is to pile up total picks. In other words, the Mike Ditka trade of his entire draft class to Washington for the rights to draft Ricky Williams counts as the worst grade in the history of the NFL Draft. The San Francisco 49ers had the best ever draft in 1986, and they traded down 6 times, eventually drafting eight starters on their Super Bowl Championship teams in 1988 and 1989.

4. The hand-picked draft gurus were selected by looking at what they had predicted in prior years and how accurate their picks turned out to be. If, for example, they gave a 4th round selection glaring grades and panned a 1st round pick as a mistake, and they were shown in later years to be correct, they made my grade to trust as a guru (a lot more in-depth than this one example).

The top grade, 5.0, is not necessarily a perfect draft, just one that has the best chance to pay off in the first year. A grade of 0.0 is the least chance to pay off in the first year. Down the road, these draft classes may be great or terrible, but since the ratings are only constructed to begin the current season, future potential is of no consequence.

Here, in order of best to worst, are the draft grades for each team.

#TeamScore
1Baltimore Ravens5.0
1New York Jets5.0
3Philadelphia Eagles4.8
4Kansas City Chiefs4.4
5Detroit Lions4.2
6New York Giants4.1
7Denver Broncos3.8
7Houston Texans3.8
7Pittsburgh Steelers3.8
10Buffalo Bills3.6
10Tennessee Titans3.6
12Atlanta Falcons3.5
12Green Bay Packers3.5
14Cincinnati Bengals3.4
14Indianapolis Colts3.4
16Las Vegas Raiders3.3
16Los Angeles Chargers3.3
16Seattle Seahawks3.3
19Cleveland Browns3.1
19Jacksonville Jaguars3.1
19Tampa Bay Bucaneers3.1
22Carolina Panthers3.0
22Los Angeles Rams3.0
22Minnesota Vikings3.0
25New Orleans Saints2.9
25Washington Commanders2.9
27Miami Dolphins2.7
28Chicago Bears2.6
28San Francisco 49ers2.6
30Dallas Cowboys2.5
31Arizona Cardinals2.3
32New England Patriots1.9

January 10, 2022

PiRate Ratings NFL Playoffs–Wildcard Round

Saturday, January 15, 2022

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
BuffaloNew England1.61.41.5
CincinnatiLas Vegas10.710.810.1

HomeVisitorTotal
BuffaloNew England45.5
CincinnatiLas Vegas51

Sunday, January 16, 2022

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
DallasSan Francisco6.87.36.7
Kansas CityPittsburgh12.413.112.8
Tampa BayPhiladelphia10.09.78.9

HomeVisitorTotal
DallasSan Francisco54.5
Kansas CityPittsburgh47
Tampa BayPhiladelphia52

Monday, January 17, 2022

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
LA RamsArizona6.66.96.9

HomeVisitorTotal
LA RamsArizona53

December 27, 2021

PiRate Ratings–NFL for Week 17, January 2-3, 2022

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
IndianapolisLas Vegas17.216.917.3
ChicagoN.Y. Giants3.33.63.7
N.Y. JetsTampa Bay-17.3-16.9-16.9
BuffaloAtlanta16.716.716.4
DallasArizona5.46.05.6
New OrleansCarolina13.713.114.0
WashingtonPhiladelphia-5.4-5.8-7.1
CincinnatiKansas City-2.2-2.2-2.7
New EnglandJacksonville25.224.626.0
TennesseeMiami5.04.54.1
LA ChargersDenver2.82.72.9
San FranciscoHouston16.016.616.1
SeattleDetroit12.311.611.4
BaltimoreLA Rams-2.2-3.1-3.6
Green BayMinnesota7.77.68.1
PittsburghCleveland0.1-0.30.2

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
IndianapolisLas Vegas50
ChicagoN.Y. Giants35
N.Y. JetsTampa Bay53.5
BuffaloAtlanta49
DallasArizona55
New OrleansCarolina41.5
WashingtonPhiladelphia41.5
CincinnatiKansas City53.5
New EnglandJacksonville38.5
TennesseeMiami44
LA ChargersDenver43.5
San FranciscoHouston47
SeattleDetroit46.5
BaltimoreLA Rams50.5
Green BayMinnesota52
PittsburghCleveland42

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
New England108.9108.7109.1108.9199-6
Buffalo108.2108.1108.4108.224.59-6
Miami99.299.6100.299.718.58-7
N. Y. Jets87.687.887.887.824.54-11

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Cincinnati102.7103.2102.6102.8269-6
Baltimore101.9101.4100.9101.423.58-7
Cleveland99.399.198.699.022.57-8
Pittsburgh97.496.896.897.019.57-7-1

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Indianapolis107.7107.7108.0107.8259-6
Tennessee101.1101.1101.3101.225.510-5
Houston90.790.390.990.722.54-11
Jacksonville86.787.186.086.619.52-13

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City107.9108.3108.4108.227.511-4
Denver99.899.899.699.715.57-8
LA Chargers99.699.599.599.5288-7
Las Vegas93.593.893.793.7258-7

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas106.5107.3106.8106.929.511-4
Philadelphia101.9102.2103.1102.4228-7
N.Y. Giants95.194.894.594.817.54-11
Washington94.594.494.094.319.56-9

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay106.2106.2106.3106.22812-3
Minnesota100.9101.1100.8100.9247-8
Chicago95.995.995.795.817.55-10
Detroit92.392.692.792.524.52-12-1

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay107.4107.2107.2107.32911-4
New Orleans103.3102.3103.2102.920.57-8
Atlanta94.594.394.994.624.57-8
Carolina92.692.292.292.4215-10

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
LA Rams107.1107.6107.5107.42711-4
Arizona104.1104.3104.2104.225.510-5
San Francisco103.7104.0104.0103.924.58-7
Seattle101.6101.3101.1101.3225-10

This Week’s Playoff Projections

If Season Ended Today
AFC
1Kansas City
2Tennessee
3Cincinnati
4Buffalo
5Indianapolis
6New England
7Baltimore

NFC
1Green Bay
2Dallas
3LA Rams
4Tampa Bay
5Arizona
6San Francisco
7Philadelphia
Playoff Projection Seeds
AFC Seeding
1Kansas City
2Tennessee
3Buffalo
4Cincinnati
5Indianapolis
6New England
7LA Chargers

NFC Seeding
1Green Bay
2LA Rams
3Tampa Bay
4Dallas
5Arizona
6Philadelphia
7San Francisco
Wildcard Round
Tennessee over LA Chargers
Buffalo over New England
Indianapolis over Cincinnati
LA Rams over San Francisco
Tampa Bay over Philadelphia
Dallas over Arizona

Divisional Round
Kansas City over Indianapolis
Buffalo over Tennessee
Green Bay over Dallas
LA Rams over Tampa Bay

Conference Championship
Kansas City over Buffalo
LA Rams over Green Bay

Super Bowl 56 (LA)
Kansas City over LA Rams

December 21, 2021

PiRate Ratings NFL Football–Week 16, Dec. 23-27, 2021

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
TennesseeSan Francisco0.2-0.2-0.2
Green BayCleveland10.310.711.7
ArizonaIndianapolis-0.20.40.0
CarolinaTampa Bay-10.7-10.7-10.5
PhiladelphiaN.Y. Giants7.57.79.0
HoustonLA Chargers-10.5-11.3-10.6
AtlantaDetroit5.24.75.3
CincinnatiBaltimore2.02.72.5
MinnesotaLA Rams-2.7-2.9-3.2
N.Y. JetsJacksonville3.73.54.8
New EnglandBuffalo5.35.55.7
SeattleChicago10.310.210.5
Kansas CityPittsburgh12.112.913.0
Las VegasDenver-4.2-4.3-4.3
DallasWashington10.611.311.0
New OrleansMiami8.16.97.4

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
TennesseeSan Francisco51
Green BayCleveland50.5
ArizonaIndianapolis51.5
CarolinaTampa Bay51
PhiladelphiaN.Y. Giants39.5
HoustonLA Chargers48.5
AtlantaDetroit50
CincinnatiBaltimore48.5
MinnesotaLA Rams51
N.Y. JetsJacksonville44
New EnglandBuffalo42.5
SeattleChicago38.5
Kansas CityPittsburgh47
Las VegasDenver41.5
DallasWashington47
New OrleansMiami40.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
New England109.7109.6110.1109.818.59-5
Buffalo107.4107.2107.4107.3248-6
Miami98.799.099.599.119.57-7
N. Y. Jets87.587.787.887.724.53-11

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore102.8102.4102.0102.4238-6
Cincinnati101.8102.2101.5101.825.58-6
Cleveland99.198.898.198.722.57-7
Pittsburgh98.197.697.697.819.57-6-1

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Indianapolis107.5107.3107.6107.525.58-6
Tennessee101.0100.9101.1101.0269-5
Houston88.688.088.688.421.53-11
Jacksonville86.887.286.086.719.52-12

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City107.2107.5107.6107.427.510-4
LA Chargers101.7101.8101.8101.7278-6
Denver100.3100.4100.3100.3167-7
Las Vegas93.093.293.093.125.57-7

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas104.3105.0104.4104.628.510-4
Philadelphia101.2101.4102.3101.6227-7
Washington96.796.796.496.618.56-8
N.Y. Giants95.895.695.395.617.54-10

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay106.4106.5106.8106.62811-3
Minnesota101.1101.4101.1101.2247-7
Chicago95.195.094.794.9174-10
Detroit92.392.692.792.5252-11-1

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay106.6106.3106.2106.429.510-4
New Orleans103.8102.9103.9103.5217-7
Atlanta94.594.394.994.6256-8
Carolina93.493.193.293.321.55-9

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
LA Rams106.9107.3107.2107.12710-4
Arizona104.3104.7104.6104.52610-4
San Francisco103.8104.2104.2104.1258-6
Seattle102.4102.2102.1102.221.55-9

Playoff Projections

If Season Ended Today
AFC
1Kansas City
2New England
3Tennessee
4Cincinnati
5Indianapolis
6LA Chargers
7Buffalo

NFC
1Green Bay
2Dallas
3Tampa Bay
4Arizona
5LA Rams
6San Francisco
7Minnesota
Playoff Projection Seeds
AFC Seeding
1Kansas City
2New England
3Indianapolis
4Pittsburgh
5LA Chargers
6Buffalo
7Tennessee

NFC Seeding
1Green Bay
2Tampa Bay
3Dallas
4LA Rams
5Arizona
6San Francisco
7Philadelphia
Wildcard Round
New England over Tennessee
Indianapolis over Buffalo
LA Chargers over Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay over Philadelphia
San Francisco over Dallas
LA Rams over Arizona

Divisional Round
Kansas City over LA Chargers
New England over Indianapolis
Green Bay over San Francisco
LA Rams over Tampa Bay

Conference Championship
Kansas City over New England
Green Bay over LA Rams

Super Bowl 56 (LA)
Kansas City over Green Bay

December 1, 2021

PiRate Picks–December 3-4, 2021

A November To Remember!

The last three weeks of PiRate Picks have seen an incredible winning streak only seen twice before at this site. In that time, we wagered on 11 different Money Line parlays and single games, all at odds of +150 or more. At 100 imaginary dollars per imaginary wager, we have seen an imaginary return of $2,770.35, for an imaginary profit of $1,670.35. That comes to an imaginary return on investment of 152% !

Last week, we placed a governor on our wagering engine informing you that we had guaranteed ourselves a winning season in imaginary funds, and we had no plans to give the imaginary windfall profits back to the books. We selected two high odds parlays at +201.37 and +150.77. Both of them won for us, although we had to sweat out Alabama’s beating Auburn.

This week being Championship Week, there are few options to choose from with just a tad over a dozen games. We did not have a parlay jump off the sheet. We had to go looking for value and really found very little. If this were for real, we would pocket our profits and withdraw it from the books. But, to not play any parlays would mean you have no reason to read this week’s publication. So, we painstakingly compared odds trying to shop for an extra 5% benefit, and we came up with two parlays that have the odds we want.

If this is your first visit to this site or this weekly feature, here is an important disclaimer: We never play these selections for real. It is strictly an exercise in mathematical fun. We strongly urge you not to play these picks, unless they simply verify the selections you have already considered. We know that about 25-30 of you reading this feature would be considered professional handicappers/players in Nevada and offshore. We don’t worry about your profit/loss from wagering, because that’s your profession and you look at dozens of references. But, if you are reading this and have a legal account with one of the big handicapping corporations, you most likely won’t be able to play these selections at the odds we issue, because we shop around until we find the best odds. In order to replicate our odds, you would have to open accounts with six different books that we have found the best odds this year. Next year, it could be different books entirely.

Here are our two parlays for this week.

December 3-4

Odds:+185.49
Must WinOpponent
Kent St.Northern Illinois
PittsburghWake Forest


Odds:+205.60
Must WinOpponent
Oklahoma St.Baylor
San Diego St.Utah St.
GeorgiaAlabama

November 1, 2021

PiRate Ratings–NFL for Week 9: November 4-8, 2021

Our Annual First Week In November Tribute to Steve Sabol of NFL Films–The Autumn Wind

The Autumn Wind is a pirate.

Blustering in from sea,

With a rollicking song, he sweeps along,

Swaggering boisterously.

His face is weather beaten.

He wears a hooded sash,

With a silver hat about his head,

And a bristling black mustache.

He growls as he storms the country,

A villain big and bold.

And the trees all shake and quiver and quake,

As he robs them of their gold.

The Autumn Wind is a Raider,

Pillaging just for fun.

He’ll knock you ’round and upside down,

And laugh when he’s conquered and won.”

Steve Sabol–NFL Films

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
IndianapolisN.Y. Jets17.816.717.0
MiamiHouston9.010.59.6
DallasDenver8.59.78.5
BaltimoreMinnesota8.27.79.1
CarolinaNew England-3.8-3.4-3.3
JacksonvilleBuffalo-18.1-16.2-18.5
CincinnatiCleveland3.54.34.5
N.Y. GiantsLas Vegas0.80.70.0
New OrleansAtlanta13.011.812.7
PhiladelphiaLA Chargers0.2-0.11.1
Kansas CityGreen Bay-0.1-0.4-1.2
San FranciscoArizona-3.4-4.3-4.3
LA RamsTennessee7.17.46.7
PittsburghChicago10.710.211.2

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
IndianapolisN.Y. Jets47.5
MiamiHouston44.5
DallasDenver46.5
BaltimoreMinnesota46.5
CarolinaNew England41
JacksonvilleBuffalo47
CincinnatiCleveland50
N.Y. GiantsLas Vegas46.5
New OrleansAtlanta49.5
PhiladelphiaLA Chargers45.5
Kansas CityGreen Bay56.5
San FranciscoArizona50
LA RamsTennessee56
PittsburghChicago34

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo109.8109.6110.0109.824.55-2
New England102.6102.1102.5102.419.54-4
Miami95.295.595.995.5201-7
N. Y. Jets88.489.088.988.8232-5

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore105.6105.2105.5105.4255-2
Cincinnati102.2102.9102.2102.425.55-3
Pittsburgh102.3101.8102.2102.117.54-3
Cleveland100.7100.699.7100.324.54-4

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tennessee103.8104.0104.4104.1286-2
Indianapolis103.2102.7102.9102.924.53-5
Jacksonville89.290.888.989.722.51-6
Houston88.787.588.888.424.51-7

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City101.8101.6101.3101.6304-4
LA Chargers100.5100.6100.5100.524.54-3
Las Vegas98.398.698.898.6275-2
Denver98.398.298.198.216.54-4

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas103.8104.9103.6104.1306-1
Philadelphia97.697.698.597.9213-5
N.Y. Giants96.296.295.896.119.52-6
Washington93.293.292.593.019.52-6

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay105.0105.0105.4105.126.57-1
Minnesota100.3100.599.5100.121.53-4
Chicago94.694.694.094.416.53-5
Detroit89.589.589.489.5260-8

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay109.7109.4109.2109.429.56-2
New Orleans107.6106.2108.1107.3225-2
Carolina95.895.796.195.921.54-4
Atlanta95.695.496.495.827.53-4

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
LA Rams108.0108.4108.1108.2287-1
Arizona107.5108.3108.3108.0267-1
Seattle103.7103.4103.6103.6243-5
San Francisco101.1101.0100.9101.0243-4

Playoff Projections

If Playoffs Started Today

AFC
1Tennessee
2Las Vegas
3Baltimore
4Buffalo
5Cincinnati
6Pittsburgh
7LA Chargers

NFC
1Green Bay
2Arizona
3Dallas
4Tampa Bay
5LA Rams
6New Orleans
7Carolina

Projected Seedings

AFC Seeding
1Baltimore
2Las Vegas
3Tennessee
4Buffalo
5Pittsburgh
6New England
7Cincinnati

NFC Seeding
1Green Bay
2LA Rams
3Dallas
4Tampa Bay
5Arizona
6Carolina
7San Francisco
Wildcard Round
Las Vegas over Cincinnati
New England over Tennessee
Buffalo over Pittsburgh
LA Rams over San Francisco
Dallas over Carolina
Arizona over Tampa Bay

Divisional Round
Baltimore over New England
Las Vegas over Buffalo
Green Bay over Arizona
LA Rams over Dallas

Conference Championship
Las Vegas over Baltimore
Green Bay over LA Rams

Super Bowl 56 (LA)
Green Bay over Las Vegas

October 17, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Football–October 20-23, 2021

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
Appalachian St.Coastal Carolina-8.0-6.7-6.7
SMUTulane9.811.89.9
Arkansas St.Louisiana-23.5-21.5-24.5
CharlotteFlorida Atlantic-7.3-7.5-6.3
UNLVSan Jose St.-6.3-7.2-5.1
ConnecticutMiddle Tennessee-12.7-11.9-15.9
Central FloridaMemphis8.66.98.9
Utah St.Colorado St.-1.6-1.0-2.2
ArizonaWashington-15.5-17.4-17.5
ToledoWestern Michigan3.12.02.4
Florida St.Massachusetts32.233.035.6
Georgia St.Texas St.12.213.313.4
IndianaOhio St.-15.9-16.0-17.0
AkronBuffalo-12.8-13.4-14.3
Penn St.Illinois25.426.127.6
VirginiaGeorgia Tech9.610.910.1
LouisvilleBoston College2.62.03.7
Virginia TechSyracuse9.88.68.7
PittsburghClemson-4.2-3.5-5.5
MinnesotaMaryland4.56.88.6
MichiganNorthwestern18.519.219.8
Central MichiganNorthern Illinois9.69.910.3
Ohio UKent St.-2.2-2.6-0.8
NavyCincinnati-33.3-33.5-35.5
Miami (Fla.)North Carolina St.1.91.42.1
ArmyWake Forest-5.8-5.0-6.1
South FloridaTemple10.88.89.9
Bowling GreenEastern Michigan-16.5-14.5-15.1
HoustonEast Carolina9.89.49.1
KansasOklahoma-41.4-41.8-45.2
Ball St.Miami (O)1.33.32.4
WyomingNew Mexico18.719.220.9
CaliforniaColorado-2.02.31.5
Oregon St.Utah-1.5-1.6-1.3
Washington St.BYU-3.3-1.5-2.8
UCLAOregon1.71.30.9
Texas TechKansas St.-1.2-0.7-1.2
TCUWest Virginia5.35.87.4
Iowa St.Oklahoma St.11.19.911.6
UABRice22.022.422.7
AlabamaTennessee25.425.026.0
Texas A&MSouth Carolina21.522.623.0
VanderbiltMississippi St.-22.2-22.8-22.9
PurdueWisconsin1.81.62.4
Ole MissLSU10.08.89.1
Louisiana-MonroeSouth Alabama-13.2-12.9-13.9
North TexasLiberty-20.8-21.7-22.4
Louisiana TechUTSA-8.4-8.5-9.8
Florida Int’l.Western Kentucky-8.5-9.5-8.8
Air ForceSan Diego St.2.23.24.1
Notre DameUSC3.64.34.1
Fresno St.Nevada3.33.34.9
HawaiiNew Mexico St.26.125.127.7

FBS vs. FCS Game

FBSFCSPiRate
ArkansasArkansas-Pine Bluff39.5

Teams Not Playing This Week

Arizona St.
Auburn
Baylor
Boise St.
Duke
Florida
Georgia
Georgia Southern
Iowa
Kentucky
Marshall
Michigan St.
Missouri
Nebraska
North Carolina
Old Dominion
Rutgers
Southern Miss.
Stanford
Texas
Troy
Tulsa
UTEP

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

RankTeamRating
1Georgia134.5
2Alabama131.4
3Ohio St.126.6
4Oklahoma124.7
5Cincinnati123.2
6Iowa St.121.0
7Texas A&M117.4
8Penn St.117.2
9Auburn117.1
10Ole Miss116.9
11Florida116.8
12Clemson116.2
13Iowa115.9
14Texas115.8
15Utah114.7
16Michigan114.4
17Arizona St.113.7
18Notre Dame113.7
19Oklahoma St.113.1
20Arkansas112.8
21U S C112.7
22Kentucky112.6
23T C U112.5
24Coastal Carolina112.5
25Oregon112.0
26Baylor111.8
27NC State111.0
28L S U110.6
29U C L A110.3
30Oregon St.110.2
31Michigan St.110.0
32North Carolina110.0
33Miami (Fla.)109.8
34Nebraska109.7
35West Virginia109.3
36Wake Forest109.3
37Wisconsin109.3
38Tennessee109.0
39Louisiana108.9
40Pittsburgh108.7
41Washington108.3
42Purdue108.2
43BYU107.5
44Indiana107.3
45Virginia107.3
46Kansas St.107.1
47Minnesota106.9
48Mississippi St.106.4
49Stanford104.6
50Houston104.5
51Virginia Tech104.3
52Liberty103.4
53Boise St.103.4
54Boston College103.3
55Maryland103.3
56Louisville103.1
57Texas Tech103.1
58Appalachian St.102.8
59SMU102.5
60Fresno St.102.4
61Washington St.101.9
62Air Force101.8
63Florida St.101.8
64San Diego St.101.7
65Colorado101.6
66Nevada101.5
67Army100.7
68Georgia Tech100.1
69Missouri100.1
70U T S A99.3
71California99.2
72U A B99.1
73UCF98.9
74Northwestern98.3
75Syracuse98.2
76East Carolina98.1
77South Carolina98.0
78Miami (Ohio)97.1
79Ball St.97.0
80Western Michigan96.2
81Rutgers95.9
82Toledo95.7
83Central Michigan95.6
84Wyoming95.5
85Tulsa95.3
86Colorado St.95.1
87Tulane95.0
88San Jose St.93.9
89Marshall93.9
90Georgia St.93.8
91Memphis93.8
92Illinois93.8
93Hawaii93.6
94South Alabama93.3
95Eastern Michigan93.0
96Buffalo93.0
97Florida Atlantic92.8
98Troy91.5
99Kent St.90.8
100Utah St.90.5
101Western Kentucky89.3
102USF88.5
103Arizona88.5
104Northern Illinois88.2
105Louisiana Tech87.4
106Duke87.2
107Ohio86.9
108Middle Tennessee86.7
109Navy86.1
110Georgia Southern86.0
111U N L V85.2
112Arkansas St.83.7
113Texas St.83.4
114U T E P83.3
115Charlotte83.3
116Vanderbilt81.7
117Temple81.7
118Rice79.3
119North Texas79.2
120Kansas78.9
121New Mexico78.9
122Southern Miss.78.0
123Florida Int’l.77.9
124UL-Monroe77.5
125Akron77.0
126Bowling Green75.2
127Old Dominion75.0
128New Mexico St.71.2
129UMass71.2
130Connecticut70.2

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Cincinnati122.6122.3124.9123.2
Houston104.7103.7105.2104.5
SMU102.1102.6102.8102.5
UCF98.997.7100.398.9
East Carolina97.997.399.098.1
Tulsa95.495.495.295.3
Tulane95.393.895.995.0
Memphis93.393.894.493.8
USF88.888.188.788.5
Navy86.385.886.486.1
Temple81.082.381.881.7

AAC Averages96.996.697.797.1


Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Clemson115.6115.6117.2116.2
NC State111.2110.8111.1111.0
Wake Forest109.5108.8109.7109.3
Boston College103.1103.4103.4103.3
Louisville102.7102.4104.1103.1
Florida St.101.6101.8102.0101.8
Syracuse98.298.498.298.2

Coastal Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
North Carolina109.4109.5111.0110.0
Miami (Fla.)110.2109.2110.2109.8
Pittsburgh108.4109.2108.7108.7
Virginia106.7108.0107.1107.3
Virginia Tech105.0103.9103.9104.3
Georgia Tech100.1100.2100.0100.1
Duke87.288.186.387.2

ACC Averages104.9104.9105.2105.0


Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oklahoma125.7123.8124.6124.7
Iowa St.121.5120.1121.4121.0
Texas116.7115.0115.7115.8
Oklahoma St.113.4113.2112.8113.1
T C U113.2111.9112.5112.5
Baylor112.3111.8111.3111.8
West Virginia110.9109.1108.1109.3
Kansas St.107.5107.2106.6107.1
Texas Tech103.3103.5102.4103.1
Kansas81.379.076.478.9

Big 12 Averages110.6109.5109.2109.7


Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.126.1126.0127.7126.6
Penn St.116.0116.8118.7117.2
Michigan113.7114.7114.9114.4
Michigan St.110.0110.0110.1110.0
Indiana107.2107.0107.7107.3
Maryland104.4103.0102.3103.3
Rutgers95.196.995.595.9

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Iowa115.6115.2116.9115.9
Nebraska109.3109.7110.0109.7
Wisconsin108.9108.8110.2109.3
Purdue107.7107.4109.6108.2
Minnesota105.9106.8108.0106.9
Northwestern98.298.598.198.3
Illinois93.693.794.193.8

Big Ten Averages108.0108.2108.8108.3


Conference USA
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Marshall93.893.794.393.9
Florida Atlantic92.193.493.092.8
Western Kentucky88.389.989.889.3
Middle Tennessee86.486.387.486.7
Charlotte82.383.484.183.3
Florida Int’l.77.377.978.577.9
Old Dominion74.675.375.275.0

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
U T S A99.099.699.499.3
U A B98.999.299.399.1
Louisiana Tech87.788.186.587.4
U T E P83.284.282.483.3
Rice79.479.379.279.3
North Texas79.579.378.979.2
Southern Miss.77.778.477.778.0

CUSA Averages85.786.386.186.0


FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Notre Dame113.0113.6114.4113.7
BYU107.7107.0107.7107.5
Liberty102.8103.5103.8103.4
Army100.7100.8100.6100.7
New Mexico St.71.672.369.871.2
UMass72.471.869.571.2
Connecticut70.771.468.570.2

Indep. Averages91.391.590.691.1


Mid-American Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Miami (Ohio)98.896.895.897.1
Buffalo93.792.892.693.0
Kent St.90.691.889.990.8
Ohio86.387.387.186.9
Akron78.476.975.977.0
Bowling Green75.576.074.075.2

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ball St.97.697.695.797.0
Western Michigan96.296.895.696.2
Toledo96.495.895.095.7
Central Michigan96.695.395.095.6
Eastern Michigan94.692.991.693.0
Northern Illinois89.487.987.288.2

MAC Averages91.290.789.690.5


Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Boise St.103.2103.0103.8103.4
Air Force101.3101.7102.5101.8
Wyoming95.195.595.995.5
Colorado St.94.895.095.495.1
Utah St.90.291.090.290.5
New Mexico79.379.477.978.9

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Fresno St.101.2102.6103.4102.4
San Diego St.102.1101.5101.4101.7
Nevada100.9102.3101.4101.5
San Jose St.94.494.492.993.9
Hawaii93.793.493.593.6
U N L V85.684.885.385.2

MWC Averages95.195.495.395.3


Pac-12 Conference
North Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oregon111.1112.1112.9112.0
Oregon St.110.1110.1110.4110.2
Washington107.4108.7108.8108.3
Stanford104.3105.1104.3104.6
Washington St.101.4102.5101.9101.9
California97.1100.999.899.2

South Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Utah114.6114.7114.7114.7
Arizona St.113.3113.9114.0113.7
U S C112.4112.3113.3112.7
U C L A109.8110.4110.7110.3
Colorado102.0101.6101.2101.6
Arizona88.988.388.288.5

Pac-12 Averages106.0106.7106.7106.5


Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Georgia134.0134.2135.3134.5
Florida116.2117.5116.8116.8
Kentucky111.7113.4112.8112.6
Tennessee109.0108.7109.2109.0
Missouri100.2100.599.5100.1
South Carolina98.598.197.598.0
Vanderbilt82.381.781.281.7

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Alabama131.4130.7132.2131.4
Texas A&M117.0117.7117.4117.4
Auburn117.2116.5117.5117.1
Ole Miss116.9116.7117.0116.9
Arkansas113.0112.9112.5112.8
L S U109.9110.9110.9110.6
Mississippi St.106.5106.5106.1106.4

SEC Averages111.7111.9111.9111.8


Sunbelt Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Coastal Carolina113.0111.2113.1112.5
Appalachian St.102.5102.0104.0102.8
Georgia St.94.293.593.893.8
Troy91.491.691.591.5
Georgia Southern86.186.485.786.0

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Louisiana109.4107.8109.5108.9
South Alabama93.693.592.993.3
Arkansas St.83.984.383.083.7
Texas St.84.582.783.083.4
UL-Monroe77.978.176.577.5

Sun Averages93.693.193.393.4

Conference Ratings

RankConferenceRating
1Southeastern111.8
2Big 12109.7
3Big Ten108.3
4Pac-12106.5
5Atlantic Coast105.0
6American Athletic97.1
7Mountain West95.3
8Sun Belt93.4
9Independents91.1
10Mid-American90.5
11Conference USA86.0

This Week’s Bowl Projections

BowlTeamTeam
BahamasUTSANorthern Illinois
CureMemphisAppalachian St.
BocaFlorida AtlanticLiberty
New MexicoUTEPAir Force
IndependenceBYUUAB
Lending TreeCentral MichiganCoastal Carolina
L. A.San Diego St.Washington St.
New OrleansCharlotteLouisiana
Myrtle BeachTulsaTroy
Famous Idaho PotatoToledoUtah St.
FriscoWestern KentuckyMiami (O)
Armed ForcesArmyMarshall
GasparillaBoston CollegeMiddle Tennessee
HawaiiCentral FloridaNevada
CamelliaEastern MichiganUL-Monroe
Quick LaneBall St.Northwestern
MilitaryMarylandEast Carolina
BirminghamKent St.Washington
First ResponderSMUWyoming
LibertyTCUArkansas
HolidayVirginia TechOregon St.
Guaranteed RatePurdueTexas Tech
FenwayHoustonClemson
PinstripeVirginiaMinnesota
Cheez-ItNotre DameBaylor
AlamoIowa St.UCLA
Duke’s MayoNorth Carolina St.Tennessee
Music CityWisconsinKansas St.
Las VegasPenn St.Oregon
Tax Slayer GatorWake ForestLSU
Tony The Tiger SunNorth CarolinaUSC
ArizonaWestern MichiganFresno St.
CitrusMichiganFlorida
OutbackIowaAuburn
TexasTexasTexas A&M
PeachOle MissPittsburgh
FiestaArizona St.Kentucky
RoseMichigan St.Utah
SugarAlabamaOklahoma St.
CottonOklahomaCincinnati
OrangeGeorgiaOhio St.
ChampionshipGeorgiaOklahoma
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