The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 10, 2022

PiRate Ratings NFL Playoffs–Wildcard Round

Saturday, January 15, 2022

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
BuffaloNew England1.61.41.5
CincinnatiLas Vegas10.710.810.1

HomeVisitorTotal
BuffaloNew England45.5
CincinnatiLas Vegas51

Sunday, January 16, 2022

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
DallasSan Francisco6.87.36.7
Kansas CityPittsburgh12.413.112.8
Tampa BayPhiladelphia10.09.78.9

HomeVisitorTotal
DallasSan Francisco54.5
Kansas CityPittsburgh47
Tampa BayPhiladelphia52

Monday, January 17, 2022

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
LA RamsArizona6.66.96.9

HomeVisitorTotal
LA RamsArizona53

December 27, 2021

PiRate Ratings–NFL for Week 17, January 2-3, 2022

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
IndianapolisLas Vegas17.216.917.3
ChicagoN.Y. Giants3.33.63.7
N.Y. JetsTampa Bay-17.3-16.9-16.9
BuffaloAtlanta16.716.716.4
DallasArizona5.46.05.6
New OrleansCarolina13.713.114.0
WashingtonPhiladelphia-5.4-5.8-7.1
CincinnatiKansas City-2.2-2.2-2.7
New EnglandJacksonville25.224.626.0
TennesseeMiami5.04.54.1
LA ChargersDenver2.82.72.9
San FranciscoHouston16.016.616.1
SeattleDetroit12.311.611.4
BaltimoreLA Rams-2.2-3.1-3.6
Green BayMinnesota7.77.68.1
PittsburghCleveland0.1-0.30.2

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
IndianapolisLas Vegas50
ChicagoN.Y. Giants35
N.Y. JetsTampa Bay53.5
BuffaloAtlanta49
DallasArizona55
New OrleansCarolina41.5
WashingtonPhiladelphia41.5
CincinnatiKansas City53.5
New EnglandJacksonville38.5
TennesseeMiami44
LA ChargersDenver43.5
San FranciscoHouston47
SeattleDetroit46.5
BaltimoreLA Rams50.5
Green BayMinnesota52
PittsburghCleveland42

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
New England108.9108.7109.1108.9199-6
Buffalo108.2108.1108.4108.224.59-6
Miami99.299.6100.299.718.58-7
N. Y. Jets87.687.887.887.824.54-11

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Cincinnati102.7103.2102.6102.8269-6
Baltimore101.9101.4100.9101.423.58-7
Cleveland99.399.198.699.022.57-8
Pittsburgh97.496.896.897.019.57-7-1

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Indianapolis107.7107.7108.0107.8259-6
Tennessee101.1101.1101.3101.225.510-5
Houston90.790.390.990.722.54-11
Jacksonville86.787.186.086.619.52-13

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City107.9108.3108.4108.227.511-4
Denver99.899.899.699.715.57-8
LA Chargers99.699.599.599.5288-7
Las Vegas93.593.893.793.7258-7

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas106.5107.3106.8106.929.511-4
Philadelphia101.9102.2103.1102.4228-7
N.Y. Giants95.194.894.594.817.54-11
Washington94.594.494.094.319.56-9

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay106.2106.2106.3106.22812-3
Minnesota100.9101.1100.8100.9247-8
Chicago95.995.995.795.817.55-10
Detroit92.392.692.792.524.52-12-1

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay107.4107.2107.2107.32911-4
New Orleans103.3102.3103.2102.920.57-8
Atlanta94.594.394.994.624.57-8
Carolina92.692.292.292.4215-10

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
LA Rams107.1107.6107.5107.42711-4
Arizona104.1104.3104.2104.225.510-5
San Francisco103.7104.0104.0103.924.58-7
Seattle101.6101.3101.1101.3225-10

This Week’s Playoff Projections

If Season Ended Today
AFC
1Kansas City
2Tennessee
3Cincinnati
4Buffalo
5Indianapolis
6New England
7Baltimore

NFC
1Green Bay
2Dallas
3LA Rams
4Tampa Bay
5Arizona
6San Francisco
7Philadelphia
Playoff Projection Seeds
AFC Seeding
1Kansas City
2Tennessee
3Buffalo
4Cincinnati
5Indianapolis
6New England
7LA Chargers

NFC Seeding
1Green Bay
2LA Rams
3Tampa Bay
4Dallas
5Arizona
6Philadelphia
7San Francisco
Wildcard Round
Tennessee over LA Chargers
Buffalo over New England
Indianapolis over Cincinnati
LA Rams over San Francisco
Tampa Bay over Philadelphia
Dallas over Arizona

Divisional Round
Kansas City over Indianapolis
Buffalo over Tennessee
Green Bay over Dallas
LA Rams over Tampa Bay

Conference Championship
Kansas City over Buffalo
LA Rams over Green Bay

Super Bowl 56 (LA)
Kansas City over LA Rams

December 21, 2021

PiRate Ratings NFL Football–Week 16, Dec. 23-27, 2021

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
TennesseeSan Francisco0.2-0.2-0.2
Green BayCleveland10.310.711.7
ArizonaIndianapolis-0.20.40.0
CarolinaTampa Bay-10.7-10.7-10.5
PhiladelphiaN.Y. Giants7.57.79.0
HoustonLA Chargers-10.5-11.3-10.6
AtlantaDetroit5.24.75.3
CincinnatiBaltimore2.02.72.5
MinnesotaLA Rams-2.7-2.9-3.2
N.Y. JetsJacksonville3.73.54.8
New EnglandBuffalo5.35.55.7
SeattleChicago10.310.210.5
Kansas CityPittsburgh12.112.913.0
Las VegasDenver-4.2-4.3-4.3
DallasWashington10.611.311.0
New OrleansMiami8.16.97.4

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
TennesseeSan Francisco51
Green BayCleveland50.5
ArizonaIndianapolis51.5
CarolinaTampa Bay51
PhiladelphiaN.Y. Giants39.5
HoustonLA Chargers48.5
AtlantaDetroit50
CincinnatiBaltimore48.5
MinnesotaLA Rams51
N.Y. JetsJacksonville44
New EnglandBuffalo42.5
SeattleChicago38.5
Kansas CityPittsburgh47
Las VegasDenver41.5
DallasWashington47
New OrleansMiami40.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
New England109.7109.6110.1109.818.59-5
Buffalo107.4107.2107.4107.3248-6
Miami98.799.099.599.119.57-7
N. Y. Jets87.587.787.887.724.53-11

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore102.8102.4102.0102.4238-6
Cincinnati101.8102.2101.5101.825.58-6
Cleveland99.198.898.198.722.57-7
Pittsburgh98.197.697.697.819.57-6-1

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Indianapolis107.5107.3107.6107.525.58-6
Tennessee101.0100.9101.1101.0269-5
Houston88.688.088.688.421.53-11
Jacksonville86.887.286.086.719.52-12

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City107.2107.5107.6107.427.510-4
LA Chargers101.7101.8101.8101.7278-6
Denver100.3100.4100.3100.3167-7
Las Vegas93.093.293.093.125.57-7

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas104.3105.0104.4104.628.510-4
Philadelphia101.2101.4102.3101.6227-7
Washington96.796.796.496.618.56-8
N.Y. Giants95.895.695.395.617.54-10

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay106.4106.5106.8106.62811-3
Minnesota101.1101.4101.1101.2247-7
Chicago95.195.094.794.9174-10
Detroit92.392.692.792.5252-11-1

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay106.6106.3106.2106.429.510-4
New Orleans103.8102.9103.9103.5217-7
Atlanta94.594.394.994.6256-8
Carolina93.493.193.293.321.55-9

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
LA Rams106.9107.3107.2107.12710-4
Arizona104.3104.7104.6104.52610-4
San Francisco103.8104.2104.2104.1258-6
Seattle102.4102.2102.1102.221.55-9

Playoff Projections

If Season Ended Today
AFC
1Kansas City
2New England
3Tennessee
4Cincinnati
5Indianapolis
6LA Chargers
7Buffalo

NFC
1Green Bay
2Dallas
3Tampa Bay
4Arizona
5LA Rams
6San Francisco
7Minnesota
Playoff Projection Seeds
AFC Seeding
1Kansas City
2New England
3Indianapolis
4Pittsburgh
5LA Chargers
6Buffalo
7Tennessee

NFC Seeding
1Green Bay
2Tampa Bay
3Dallas
4LA Rams
5Arizona
6San Francisco
7Philadelphia
Wildcard Round
New England over Tennessee
Indianapolis over Buffalo
LA Chargers over Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay over Philadelphia
San Francisco over Dallas
LA Rams over Arizona

Divisional Round
Kansas City over LA Chargers
New England over Indianapolis
Green Bay over San Francisco
LA Rams over Tampa Bay

Conference Championship
Kansas City over New England
Green Bay over LA Rams

Super Bowl 56 (LA)
Kansas City over Green Bay

December 1, 2021

PiRate Picks–December 3-4, 2021

A November To Remember!

The last three weeks of PiRate Picks have seen an incredible winning streak only seen twice before at this site. In that time, we wagered on 11 different Money Line parlays and single games, all at odds of +150 or more. At 100 imaginary dollars per imaginary wager, we have seen an imaginary return of $2,770.35, for an imaginary profit of $1,670.35. That comes to an imaginary return on investment of 152% !

Last week, we placed a governor on our wagering engine informing you that we had guaranteed ourselves a winning season in imaginary funds, and we had no plans to give the imaginary windfall profits back to the books. We selected two high odds parlays at +201.37 and +150.77. Both of them won for us, although we had to sweat out Alabama’s beating Auburn.

This week being Championship Week, there are few options to choose from with just a tad over a dozen games. We did not have a parlay jump off the sheet. We had to go looking for value and really found very little. If this were for real, we would pocket our profits and withdraw it from the books. But, to not play any parlays would mean you have no reason to read this week’s publication. So, we painstakingly compared odds trying to shop for an extra 5% benefit, and we came up with two parlays that have the odds we want.

If this is your first visit to this site or this weekly feature, here is an important disclaimer: We never play these selections for real. It is strictly an exercise in mathematical fun. We strongly urge you not to play these picks, unless they simply verify the selections you have already considered. We know that about 25-30 of you reading this feature would be considered professional handicappers/players in Nevada and offshore. We don’t worry about your profit/loss from wagering, because that’s your profession and you look at dozens of references. But, if you are reading this and have a legal account with one of the big handicapping corporations, you most likely won’t be able to play these selections at the odds we issue, because we shop around until we find the best odds. In order to replicate our odds, you would have to open accounts with six different books that we have found the best odds this year. Next year, it could be different books entirely.

Here are our two parlays for this week.

December 3-4

Odds:+185.49
Must WinOpponent
Kent St.Northern Illinois
PittsburghWake Forest


Odds:+205.60
Must WinOpponent
Oklahoma St.Baylor
San Diego St.Utah St.
GeorgiaAlabama

November 1, 2021

PiRate Ratings–NFL for Week 9: November 4-8, 2021

Our Annual First Week In November Tribute to Steve Sabol of NFL Films–The Autumn Wind

The Autumn Wind is a pirate.

Blustering in from sea,

With a rollicking song, he sweeps along,

Swaggering boisterously.

His face is weather beaten.

He wears a hooded sash,

With a silver hat about his head,

And a bristling black mustache.

He growls as he storms the country,

A villain big and bold.

And the trees all shake and quiver and quake,

As he robs them of their gold.

The Autumn Wind is a Raider,

Pillaging just for fun.

He’ll knock you ’round and upside down,

And laugh when he’s conquered and won.”

Steve Sabol–NFL Films

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
IndianapolisN.Y. Jets17.816.717.0
MiamiHouston9.010.59.6
DallasDenver8.59.78.5
BaltimoreMinnesota8.27.79.1
CarolinaNew England-3.8-3.4-3.3
JacksonvilleBuffalo-18.1-16.2-18.5
CincinnatiCleveland3.54.34.5
N.Y. GiantsLas Vegas0.80.70.0
New OrleansAtlanta13.011.812.7
PhiladelphiaLA Chargers0.2-0.11.1
Kansas CityGreen Bay-0.1-0.4-1.2
San FranciscoArizona-3.4-4.3-4.3
LA RamsTennessee7.17.46.7
PittsburghChicago10.710.211.2

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
IndianapolisN.Y. Jets47.5
MiamiHouston44.5
DallasDenver46.5
BaltimoreMinnesota46.5
CarolinaNew England41
JacksonvilleBuffalo47
CincinnatiCleveland50
N.Y. GiantsLas Vegas46.5
New OrleansAtlanta49.5
PhiladelphiaLA Chargers45.5
Kansas CityGreen Bay56.5
San FranciscoArizona50
LA RamsTennessee56
PittsburghChicago34

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo109.8109.6110.0109.824.55-2
New England102.6102.1102.5102.419.54-4
Miami95.295.595.995.5201-7
N. Y. Jets88.489.088.988.8232-5

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore105.6105.2105.5105.4255-2
Cincinnati102.2102.9102.2102.425.55-3
Pittsburgh102.3101.8102.2102.117.54-3
Cleveland100.7100.699.7100.324.54-4

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tennessee103.8104.0104.4104.1286-2
Indianapolis103.2102.7102.9102.924.53-5
Jacksonville89.290.888.989.722.51-6
Houston88.787.588.888.424.51-7

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City101.8101.6101.3101.6304-4
LA Chargers100.5100.6100.5100.524.54-3
Las Vegas98.398.698.898.6275-2
Denver98.398.298.198.216.54-4

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas103.8104.9103.6104.1306-1
Philadelphia97.697.698.597.9213-5
N.Y. Giants96.296.295.896.119.52-6
Washington93.293.292.593.019.52-6

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay105.0105.0105.4105.126.57-1
Minnesota100.3100.599.5100.121.53-4
Chicago94.694.694.094.416.53-5
Detroit89.589.589.489.5260-8

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay109.7109.4109.2109.429.56-2
New Orleans107.6106.2108.1107.3225-2
Carolina95.895.796.195.921.54-4
Atlanta95.695.496.495.827.53-4

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
LA Rams108.0108.4108.1108.2287-1
Arizona107.5108.3108.3108.0267-1
Seattle103.7103.4103.6103.6243-5
San Francisco101.1101.0100.9101.0243-4

Playoff Projections

If Playoffs Started Today

AFC
1Tennessee
2Las Vegas
3Baltimore
4Buffalo
5Cincinnati
6Pittsburgh
7LA Chargers

NFC
1Green Bay
2Arizona
3Dallas
4Tampa Bay
5LA Rams
6New Orleans
7Carolina

Projected Seedings

AFC Seeding
1Baltimore
2Las Vegas
3Tennessee
4Buffalo
5Pittsburgh
6New England
7Cincinnati

NFC Seeding
1Green Bay
2LA Rams
3Dallas
4Tampa Bay
5Arizona
6Carolina
7San Francisco
Wildcard Round
Las Vegas over Cincinnati
New England over Tennessee
Buffalo over Pittsburgh
LA Rams over San Francisco
Dallas over Carolina
Arizona over Tampa Bay

Divisional Round
Baltimore over New England
Las Vegas over Buffalo
Green Bay over Arizona
LA Rams over Dallas

Conference Championship
Las Vegas over Baltimore
Green Bay over LA Rams

Super Bowl 56 (LA)
Green Bay over Las Vegas

October 17, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Football–October 20-23, 2021

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
Appalachian St.Coastal Carolina-8.0-6.7-6.7
SMUTulane9.811.89.9
Arkansas St.Louisiana-23.5-21.5-24.5
CharlotteFlorida Atlantic-7.3-7.5-6.3
UNLVSan Jose St.-6.3-7.2-5.1
ConnecticutMiddle Tennessee-12.7-11.9-15.9
Central FloridaMemphis8.66.98.9
Utah St.Colorado St.-1.6-1.0-2.2
ArizonaWashington-15.5-17.4-17.5
ToledoWestern Michigan3.12.02.4
Florida St.Massachusetts32.233.035.6
Georgia St.Texas St.12.213.313.4
IndianaOhio St.-15.9-16.0-17.0
AkronBuffalo-12.8-13.4-14.3
Penn St.Illinois25.426.127.6
VirginiaGeorgia Tech9.610.910.1
LouisvilleBoston College2.62.03.7
Virginia TechSyracuse9.88.68.7
PittsburghClemson-4.2-3.5-5.5
MinnesotaMaryland4.56.88.6
MichiganNorthwestern18.519.219.8
Central MichiganNorthern Illinois9.69.910.3
Ohio UKent St.-2.2-2.6-0.8
NavyCincinnati-33.3-33.5-35.5
Miami (Fla.)North Carolina St.1.91.42.1
ArmyWake Forest-5.8-5.0-6.1
South FloridaTemple10.88.89.9
Bowling GreenEastern Michigan-16.5-14.5-15.1
HoustonEast Carolina9.89.49.1
KansasOklahoma-41.4-41.8-45.2
Ball St.Miami (O)1.33.32.4
WyomingNew Mexico18.719.220.9
CaliforniaColorado-2.02.31.5
Oregon St.Utah-1.5-1.6-1.3
Washington St.BYU-3.3-1.5-2.8
UCLAOregon1.71.30.9
Texas TechKansas St.-1.2-0.7-1.2
TCUWest Virginia5.35.87.4
Iowa St.Oklahoma St.11.19.911.6
UABRice22.022.422.7
AlabamaTennessee25.425.026.0
Texas A&MSouth Carolina21.522.623.0
VanderbiltMississippi St.-22.2-22.8-22.9
PurdueWisconsin1.81.62.4
Ole MissLSU10.08.89.1
Louisiana-MonroeSouth Alabama-13.2-12.9-13.9
North TexasLiberty-20.8-21.7-22.4
Louisiana TechUTSA-8.4-8.5-9.8
Florida Int’l.Western Kentucky-8.5-9.5-8.8
Air ForceSan Diego St.2.23.24.1
Notre DameUSC3.64.34.1
Fresno St.Nevada3.33.34.9
HawaiiNew Mexico St.26.125.127.7

FBS vs. FCS Game

FBSFCSPiRate
ArkansasArkansas-Pine Bluff39.5

Teams Not Playing This Week

Arizona St.
Auburn
Baylor
Boise St.
Duke
Florida
Georgia
Georgia Southern
Iowa
Kentucky
Marshall
Michigan St.
Missouri
Nebraska
North Carolina
Old Dominion
Rutgers
Southern Miss.
Stanford
Texas
Troy
Tulsa
UTEP

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

RankTeamRating
1Georgia134.5
2Alabama131.4
3Ohio St.126.6
4Oklahoma124.7
5Cincinnati123.2
6Iowa St.121.0
7Texas A&M117.4
8Penn St.117.2
9Auburn117.1
10Ole Miss116.9
11Florida116.8
12Clemson116.2
13Iowa115.9
14Texas115.8
15Utah114.7
16Michigan114.4
17Arizona St.113.7
18Notre Dame113.7
19Oklahoma St.113.1
20Arkansas112.8
21U S C112.7
22Kentucky112.6
23T C U112.5
24Coastal Carolina112.5
25Oregon112.0
26Baylor111.8
27NC State111.0
28L S U110.6
29U C L A110.3
30Oregon St.110.2
31Michigan St.110.0
32North Carolina110.0
33Miami (Fla.)109.8
34Nebraska109.7
35West Virginia109.3
36Wake Forest109.3
37Wisconsin109.3
38Tennessee109.0
39Louisiana108.9
40Pittsburgh108.7
41Washington108.3
42Purdue108.2
43BYU107.5
44Indiana107.3
45Virginia107.3
46Kansas St.107.1
47Minnesota106.9
48Mississippi St.106.4
49Stanford104.6
50Houston104.5
51Virginia Tech104.3
52Liberty103.4
53Boise St.103.4
54Boston College103.3
55Maryland103.3
56Louisville103.1
57Texas Tech103.1
58Appalachian St.102.8
59SMU102.5
60Fresno St.102.4
61Washington St.101.9
62Air Force101.8
63Florida St.101.8
64San Diego St.101.7
65Colorado101.6
66Nevada101.5
67Army100.7
68Georgia Tech100.1
69Missouri100.1
70U T S A99.3
71California99.2
72U A B99.1
73UCF98.9
74Northwestern98.3
75Syracuse98.2
76East Carolina98.1
77South Carolina98.0
78Miami (Ohio)97.1
79Ball St.97.0
80Western Michigan96.2
81Rutgers95.9
82Toledo95.7
83Central Michigan95.6
84Wyoming95.5
85Tulsa95.3
86Colorado St.95.1
87Tulane95.0
88San Jose St.93.9
89Marshall93.9
90Georgia St.93.8
91Memphis93.8
92Illinois93.8
93Hawaii93.6
94South Alabama93.3
95Eastern Michigan93.0
96Buffalo93.0
97Florida Atlantic92.8
98Troy91.5
99Kent St.90.8
100Utah St.90.5
101Western Kentucky89.3
102USF88.5
103Arizona88.5
104Northern Illinois88.2
105Louisiana Tech87.4
106Duke87.2
107Ohio86.9
108Middle Tennessee86.7
109Navy86.1
110Georgia Southern86.0
111U N L V85.2
112Arkansas St.83.7
113Texas St.83.4
114U T E P83.3
115Charlotte83.3
116Vanderbilt81.7
117Temple81.7
118Rice79.3
119North Texas79.2
120Kansas78.9
121New Mexico78.9
122Southern Miss.78.0
123Florida Int’l.77.9
124UL-Monroe77.5
125Akron77.0
126Bowling Green75.2
127Old Dominion75.0
128New Mexico St.71.2
129UMass71.2
130Connecticut70.2

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Cincinnati122.6122.3124.9123.2
Houston104.7103.7105.2104.5
SMU102.1102.6102.8102.5
UCF98.997.7100.398.9
East Carolina97.997.399.098.1
Tulsa95.495.495.295.3
Tulane95.393.895.995.0
Memphis93.393.894.493.8
USF88.888.188.788.5
Navy86.385.886.486.1
Temple81.082.381.881.7

AAC Averages96.996.697.797.1


Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Clemson115.6115.6117.2116.2
NC State111.2110.8111.1111.0
Wake Forest109.5108.8109.7109.3
Boston College103.1103.4103.4103.3
Louisville102.7102.4104.1103.1
Florida St.101.6101.8102.0101.8
Syracuse98.298.498.298.2

Coastal Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
North Carolina109.4109.5111.0110.0
Miami (Fla.)110.2109.2110.2109.8
Pittsburgh108.4109.2108.7108.7
Virginia106.7108.0107.1107.3
Virginia Tech105.0103.9103.9104.3
Georgia Tech100.1100.2100.0100.1
Duke87.288.186.387.2

ACC Averages104.9104.9105.2105.0


Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oklahoma125.7123.8124.6124.7
Iowa St.121.5120.1121.4121.0
Texas116.7115.0115.7115.8
Oklahoma St.113.4113.2112.8113.1
T C U113.2111.9112.5112.5
Baylor112.3111.8111.3111.8
West Virginia110.9109.1108.1109.3
Kansas St.107.5107.2106.6107.1
Texas Tech103.3103.5102.4103.1
Kansas81.379.076.478.9

Big 12 Averages110.6109.5109.2109.7


Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.126.1126.0127.7126.6
Penn St.116.0116.8118.7117.2
Michigan113.7114.7114.9114.4
Michigan St.110.0110.0110.1110.0
Indiana107.2107.0107.7107.3
Maryland104.4103.0102.3103.3
Rutgers95.196.995.595.9

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Iowa115.6115.2116.9115.9
Nebraska109.3109.7110.0109.7
Wisconsin108.9108.8110.2109.3
Purdue107.7107.4109.6108.2
Minnesota105.9106.8108.0106.9
Northwestern98.298.598.198.3
Illinois93.693.794.193.8

Big Ten Averages108.0108.2108.8108.3


Conference USA
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Marshall93.893.794.393.9
Florida Atlantic92.193.493.092.8
Western Kentucky88.389.989.889.3
Middle Tennessee86.486.387.486.7
Charlotte82.383.484.183.3
Florida Int’l.77.377.978.577.9
Old Dominion74.675.375.275.0

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
U T S A99.099.699.499.3
U A B98.999.299.399.1
Louisiana Tech87.788.186.587.4
U T E P83.284.282.483.3
Rice79.479.379.279.3
North Texas79.579.378.979.2
Southern Miss.77.778.477.778.0

CUSA Averages85.786.386.186.0


FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Notre Dame113.0113.6114.4113.7
BYU107.7107.0107.7107.5
Liberty102.8103.5103.8103.4
Army100.7100.8100.6100.7
New Mexico St.71.672.369.871.2
UMass72.471.869.571.2
Connecticut70.771.468.570.2

Indep. Averages91.391.590.691.1


Mid-American Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Miami (Ohio)98.896.895.897.1
Buffalo93.792.892.693.0
Kent St.90.691.889.990.8
Ohio86.387.387.186.9
Akron78.476.975.977.0
Bowling Green75.576.074.075.2

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ball St.97.697.695.797.0
Western Michigan96.296.895.696.2
Toledo96.495.895.095.7
Central Michigan96.695.395.095.6
Eastern Michigan94.692.991.693.0
Northern Illinois89.487.987.288.2

MAC Averages91.290.789.690.5


Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Boise St.103.2103.0103.8103.4
Air Force101.3101.7102.5101.8
Wyoming95.195.595.995.5
Colorado St.94.895.095.495.1
Utah St.90.291.090.290.5
New Mexico79.379.477.978.9

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Fresno St.101.2102.6103.4102.4
San Diego St.102.1101.5101.4101.7
Nevada100.9102.3101.4101.5
San Jose St.94.494.492.993.9
Hawaii93.793.493.593.6
U N L V85.684.885.385.2

MWC Averages95.195.495.395.3


Pac-12 Conference
North Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oregon111.1112.1112.9112.0
Oregon St.110.1110.1110.4110.2
Washington107.4108.7108.8108.3
Stanford104.3105.1104.3104.6
Washington St.101.4102.5101.9101.9
California97.1100.999.899.2

South Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Utah114.6114.7114.7114.7
Arizona St.113.3113.9114.0113.7
U S C112.4112.3113.3112.7
U C L A109.8110.4110.7110.3
Colorado102.0101.6101.2101.6
Arizona88.988.388.288.5

Pac-12 Averages106.0106.7106.7106.5


Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Georgia134.0134.2135.3134.5
Florida116.2117.5116.8116.8
Kentucky111.7113.4112.8112.6
Tennessee109.0108.7109.2109.0
Missouri100.2100.599.5100.1
South Carolina98.598.197.598.0
Vanderbilt82.381.781.281.7

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Alabama131.4130.7132.2131.4
Texas A&M117.0117.7117.4117.4
Auburn117.2116.5117.5117.1
Ole Miss116.9116.7117.0116.9
Arkansas113.0112.9112.5112.8
L S U109.9110.9110.9110.6
Mississippi St.106.5106.5106.1106.4

SEC Averages111.7111.9111.9111.8


Sunbelt Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Coastal Carolina113.0111.2113.1112.5
Appalachian St.102.5102.0104.0102.8
Georgia St.94.293.593.893.8
Troy91.491.691.591.5
Georgia Southern86.186.485.786.0

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Louisiana109.4107.8109.5108.9
South Alabama93.693.592.993.3
Arkansas St.83.984.383.083.7
Texas St.84.582.783.083.4
UL-Monroe77.978.176.577.5

Sun Averages93.693.193.393.4

Conference Ratings

RankConferenceRating
1Southeastern111.8
2Big 12109.7
3Big Ten108.3
4Pac-12106.5
5Atlantic Coast105.0
6American Athletic97.1
7Mountain West95.3
8Sun Belt93.4
9Independents91.1
10Mid-American90.5
11Conference USA86.0

This Week’s Bowl Projections

BowlTeamTeam
BahamasUTSANorthern Illinois
CureMemphisAppalachian St.
BocaFlorida AtlanticLiberty
New MexicoUTEPAir Force
IndependenceBYUUAB
Lending TreeCentral MichiganCoastal Carolina
L. A.San Diego St.Washington St.
New OrleansCharlotteLouisiana
Myrtle BeachTulsaTroy
Famous Idaho PotatoToledoUtah St.
FriscoWestern KentuckyMiami (O)
Armed ForcesArmyMarshall
GasparillaBoston CollegeMiddle Tennessee
HawaiiCentral FloridaNevada
CamelliaEastern MichiganUL-Monroe
Quick LaneBall St.Northwestern
MilitaryMarylandEast Carolina
BirminghamKent St.Washington
First ResponderSMUWyoming
LibertyTCUArkansas
HolidayVirginia TechOregon St.
Guaranteed RatePurdueTexas Tech
FenwayHoustonClemson
PinstripeVirginiaMinnesota
Cheez-ItNotre DameBaylor
AlamoIowa St.UCLA
Duke’s MayoNorth Carolina St.Tennessee
Music CityWisconsinKansas St.
Las VegasPenn St.Oregon
Tax Slayer GatorWake ForestLSU
Tony The Tiger SunNorth CarolinaUSC
ArizonaWestern MichiganFresno St.
CitrusMichiganFlorida
OutbackIowaAuburn
TexasTexasTexas A&M
PeachOle MissPittsburgh
FiestaArizona St.Kentucky
RoseMichigan St.Utah
SugarAlabamaOklahoma St.
CottonOklahomaCincinnati
OrangeGeorgiaOhio St.
ChampionshipGeorgiaOklahoma

October 13, 2021

PiRate Picks–October 16-17, 2021

If you are like us here on the aging PiRate ship, you probably grew up in the 1950’s, 1960’s, or 1970’s watching Wile E. Coyote chase the Roadrunner every Saturday morning. He always had a great plan, and of course, he was Acme Products’ best customer. Every plan came “this close” to working. But, in the end, he fell hundreds of feet to the canyon floor and made a splat.

That’s how last week’s episode of the PiRate Picks turned out to be. We chose the best games we saw at Acme Handicapping. We came “this close” to having an incredibly successful week. Two of the long shot parlays won and returned big payouts. With less than five minutes to go in three other selections, we were on the winning side. Alas, at the last second the Roadrunners of the gridiron made their Beep Beep sounds and ran off to safety, leaving our three selections to make a splat at the bottom of the canyon.

Ah, but here’s the rub. Just like Wile E. Coyote, who has endless funds to continue obtaining more great Acme products, our imaginary bank account is just as endless with funds. Just like Wile E., we can go splat on the canyon floor and get right back up and go at it again, because any financial losses are just as fake as the images drawn on a cartoon.

Thus, we have six more Money Line picks this week after suffering a minute net loss last week. For the year, our return on imaginary investment is -1%. It’s not a big negative, but comically, this feature usually returns a small profit every year. However, we would never play these picks, because we prefer to sleep at night. We encourage you to follow our lead. Read it for a laugh, just like you make when you see Wile E. falling off the cliff yet again.

Date:

October 14-18

Odds:+309.14
Must WinOpponent
South AlabamaGeorgia Southern
Northern IllinoisBowling Green
UtahArizona St.


Odds:+218.93
Must WinOpponent
Utah St.UNLV
Boston CollegeNorth Carolina St.


Odds:+185
Must WinOpponent
Virginia TechPittsburgh


Odds:+248
Must WinOpponent
Kent St.Western Michigan


Odds:+187
Must WinOpponent
Central MichiganToledo


Odds:+152.44
Must WinOpponent
MiamiJacksonville
DenverLas Vegas

September 5, 2021

PiRate Ratings NFL For Week 1

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:41 am

Week 1 PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
Tampa BayDallas11.310.212.4
BuffaloPittsburgh7.78.68.5
CarolinaN.Y. Jets7.46.47.5
HoustonJacksonville5.01.55.6
TennesseeArizona3.83.43.4
WashingtonLA Chargers2.02.21.5
AtlantaPhiladelphia6.36.47.1
IndianapolisSeattle1.50.81.2
CincinnatiMinnesota-2.8-2.7-2.4
DetroitSan Francisco-5.8-5.9-6.0
Kansas CityCleveland7.37.48.8
New EnglandMiami5.34.23.6
N.Y. GiantsDenver1.31.91.1
New OrleansGreen Bay-0.8-3.1-0.1
LA RamsChicago8.08.07.7
Las VegasBaltimore-4.7-3.9-4.8

Week 1 PiRate Rating Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
Tampa BayDallas54
BuffaloPittsburgh41.5
CarolinaN.Y. Jets46
HoustonJacksonville49
TennesseeArizona56.5
WashingtonLA Chargers43
AtlantaPhiladelphia48.5
IndianapolisSeattle53.5
CincinnatiMinnesota46
DetroitSan Francisco52
Kansas City
Cleveland55
New EnglandMiami40
N.Y. GiantsDenver38.5
New OrleansGreen Bay50.5
LA RamsChicago47
Las VegasBaltimore51

Week 1 PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo107.1107.1107.5107.2240-0
New England101.2100.6100.6100.819.50-0
Miami98.999.499.999.420.50-0
N. Y. Jets92.493.593.393.122.50-0

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore105.1104.5105.5105.0250-0
Pittsburgh102.4101.5102.0102.017.50-0
Cleveland102.0102.0100.6101.525.50-0
Cincinnati94.795.494.294.823.50-0

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Indianapolis102.3101.4101.8101.925.50-0
Tennessee100.6100.8100.6100.7290-0
Houston94.593.095.094.2270-0
Jacksonville92.094.091.992.7220-0

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City106.3106.4106.4106.429.50-0
LA Chargers99.799.899.799.724.50-0
Denver99.098.798.698.8180-0
Las Vegas97.397.797.797.6260-0

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas99.2100.197.999.1280-0
Washington98.699.198.298.618.50-0
N.Y. Giants97.397.696.797.220.50-0
Philadelphia94.894.795.595.0200-0

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay105.2104.8104.9105.0270-0
Minnesota100.0100.599.299.922.50-0
Chicago99.5100.099.699.7190-0
Detroit93.193.093.293.1280-0

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay107.5107.3107.3107.4260-0
New Orleans104.4101.7104.8103.623.50-0
Atlanta98.198.099.698.628.50-0
Carolina96.896.997.897.223.50-0

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
LA Rams104.5105.0104.3104.6280-0
Seattle103.8103.7103.6103.7280-0
San Francisco101.9102.0102.1102.0240-0
Arizona99.8100.4100.2100.127.50-0

June 30, 2021

PiRate Ratings 2021 NFL Draft Grades

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:04 am

In recent years, we have heard from you that you would like to see our NFL Draft Grades with an explanation of why our grades are different from the mainstream. We started this service last year mostly to fill space at a time where it looked like there might not be a season. Looking back at the stats for the post, apparently it was about as popular as our March Madness Bracketology reveal, so definitely we are repeating the process this year.

First, to explain the uniqueness of our draft coverage. We do not look at the players drafted trying to predict what type of career they might have. If a team drafts a quarterback in the first round but has no plans to start this player for at least a few years, the selection might be worthy of an A+ selection by other services, and we would agree using their parameters.

However, our draft grades have a different purpose. We are an integrative computerized/human input rating service. The only reason we have to assign a grade to the draft is by calculating how it alters the teams’ ratings between week 17 and the playoffs the previous season and week 1 of the approaching season. That quarterback, for instance Jordan Love, might eventually be the best one in his draft class around 2023. However, when Love was drafted, it was almost a wasted pick as it failed to affect the Packers’ ratings any more than trading a tested backup for an untested backup. In other words, it was an ultra slight negative.

How does each drafted player appear to affect the team that drafted him in week 1 of the coming season? If he figures to see considerable playing time, that means something. If he figures to start, that means something more. If he figures to be an immediate impact player, that really means something. If he was the teams’ first round pick, whether or not he contributes in the coming year is no different than if he is the 7th round pick. Once, the season starts, teams get no bonus or punishment for playing the 7th round pick over the 1st round pick.

Next, say a team only drafted a couple of players due to trades, but the few they have all figure to contribute immediately. At the same time another team might have piled up picks and took 10 to 12 players, only half that may figure to contribute immediately. We don’t reward the few picks team over the several picks team. Having more picks brings a bonus, because the potential is there for many more players to potentially contribute. So, when Mike Ditka traded his entire draft to get the pick that brought New Orleans Ricky Williams, we figured that Williams would immediately start as the featured back, but the Saints’ overall grade that year was a D-. They had numerous holes to fill on that roster and failed to fill any of them. The bump forward from 3.5 yards per rush to 3.7 yards per rush did nothing to make a 6-10 team better, and when they went 3-13 with three different starting quarterbacks finishing with a QB rating under 60, Williams would have needed to average more yards per game than Jim Brown in his prime to make much of a difference.

It is not an exact science, but neither is a any computer power rating update. However, teams must be adjusted from the end of one season to the start of the next. There has to be some criteria used that approximates improvement or decline in the best method available to the update process. Anybody could have guessed that Tom Brady going from New England to Tampa Bay would totally alter the week 1 power rating of the two teams. As a matter of fact, quarterback is by far the most important factor in the update process. Blind-side tackle is the next most important, and the defensive rush ends are next most important. Each position down to long-snapper on special teams has its own handicapped factor that can influence the ratings update.

Now that you know our process, take a look at our grading scale. We don’t actually use a letter grade as you will see here today, as that means nothing to the rating. There is an internal number that becomes part of an algorithmic equation that adds value to a team’s power rating (occasionally deducts from a power rating if a team has a fire sale and starts a major rebuild.

Our grading scale starts at 0 and maxes out at 10, but only in theory. No team has ever come close to either extreme. Realistically, our draft scores range from a low of 3.0 to a high of 9.0 Anything above 8.0 means a team’s draft class should help them immediately in week 1. Of course, the draft is but one of many factors that go into this, and the overall great draft can be reversed by the loss of many regulars from the previous year.

A score of 6.0 is about par. Teams might become Super Bowl contenders with a par draft just because one key player contributed to the cause. A score under 4.0 means the team will see little to no immediate benefit from their draft.

Here are the scores from first to worst for the 2021 NFL Draft.

TeamDraft Rating
Chicago Bears8.38
Cleveland Browns8.13
Los Angeles Chargers8.13
New York Giants7.88
Miami Dolphins7.63
New York Jets7.63
New England Patriots7.25
Denver Broncos7.00
Atlanta Falcons6.88
Jacksonville Jaguars6.88
Detroit Lions6.75
Philadelphia Eagles6.50
Tennessee Titans6.50
Baltimore Ravens6.13
Minnesota Vikings6.13
Buffalo Bills6.00
Washington Football Team6.00
Kansas City Chiefs5.88
San Francisco 49ers5.88
Carolina Panthers5.75
Cincinnati Bengals5.50
Tampa Bay Bucaneers5.38
Dallas Cowboys5.00
Pittsburgh Steelers5.00
Los Angeles Rams4.88
Arizona Cardinals4.63
Indianapolis Colts4.63
Green Bay Packers4.25
New Orleans Saints3.63
Houston Texans3.38
Las Vegas Raiders3.13
Seattle Seahawks3.13

February 17, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

February 17, 2021

HomeVisitorSpread
RichmondVCU-0.1
Central FloridaSouth Florida2.2
PittsburghNC St.2.3
LouisvileSyracuse2.7
North CarolinaNortheastern13.5
Wake ForestDuke-6.8
Kansas St.Kansas-15.4
ButlerMarquette-0.6
Seton HallDePaul10.2
MarylandNebraska8.9
IndianaMinnesota1.9
Loyola (Chi.)Valparaiso20.7
New MexicoWyoming-2.7
Boise St.Utah St.0.1
USCArizona St.10.7
VanderbiltKentucky-3.8
TennesseeSouth Carolina8.6
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