PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Sunday, March 19, 2023

Home	Visitor	Spread
Baylor	Creighton	-0.3
Colorado	Utah Valley	4.7
Connecticut	Saint Mary’s	4.2
Duquesne	Rice	5.5
Eastern Kentucky	Cleveland St.	0.8
Florida Atlantic	Fairleigh Dickinson	18.7
Gonzaga	TCU	4.4
Indiana	Miami (Fla)	1.8
Kansas St.	Kentucky	-0.2
Marquette	Michigan St.	3.2
North Texas	Sam Houston St.	3.4
Oklahoma St.	Eastern Washington	11.5
Oregon	Central Florida	4.6
Stetson	Milwaukee	2.7
Tarleton St.	Radford	1.1
UAB	Morehead St.	16.0
Wisconsin	Liberty	2.9
Xavier	Pittsburgh	5.4

PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Tuesday, March 14, 2023

Home	Visitor	Spread
Texas A&M-CC	SE Missouri St.	4.3
Michigan	Toledo	7.2
Rutgers	Hofstra	9.1
UAB	Southern Miss.	7.9
Liberty	Villanova	1.8
Vanderbilt	Yale	2.9
Mississippi St.	Pittsburgh	1.8
Wisconsin	Bradley	4.5
Colorado	Seton Hall	3.3
Washington St.	Eastern Washington	9.7

PiRate Ratings Bracketology — Final Before Selection Show

Date	Final
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Alabama	Houston	Kansas	Purdue
2	Texas	Arizona	UCLA	Marquette
3	Baylor	Kansas St.	Gonzaga	Connecticut
4	Tennessee	Xavier	Indiana	Virginia
5	Iowa St.	San Diego St.	TCU	Duke
6	Miami (Fla)	Saint Mary’s	Texas A&M	Creighton
7	Kentucky	Missouri	Michigan St.	Northwestern
8	Maryland	Florida Atlantic	Arkansas	Memphis
9	Illinois	Iowa	West Virginia	Boise St.
10	Auburn	Penn St.	USC	Utah St.
11	Providence	N. Carolina St.	Mississippi St.	Rutgers	Pittsburgh	Arizona St.
12	Charleston	Oral Roberts	Drake	VCU
13	Kent St.	Iona	Louisiana	Furman
14	UC Santa Barbara	Kennesaw St.	Grand Canyon	Colgate
15	Princeton	Vermont	Montana St.	UNC Asheville
16	N. Kentucky	Texas A&M-CC	SE Missouri St.	Howard	Fairleigh Dickinson	Texas Southern

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Last 4 Byes: USC, Utah St., Providence, North Carolina St.

Last 4 In (DAYTON FIRST FOUR): Rutgers vs. Arizona St. & Mississippi St. vs. Pittsburgh

#16 First Four: SE Missouri St. vs. Texas Southern & Howard vs. Fairleigh Dickinson

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First Four Out (#1 NIT Seeds): Nevada, Oklahoma St., Clemson, Vanderbilt

Next 4 Out (#2 NIT Seeds): North Carolina, Wisconsin, Oregon, Michigan

PiRate Ratings Bracketology Special

With just one day to go before the real bracket reveal on Selection Sunday, I am not posting an update to my bracketology. Instead, I am listing the teams on the Bubble along with some of their accolades. Most of today and tomorrow will be spent doing more in-depth analysis and calculations than a typical day’s bracketology-analysis so the final prediction tomorrow afternoon can be as accurate as possible. In the past nine years, PiRate Ratings’ Bracketology has correctly picked all 68 teams five times, 67 teams three times, and 66 teams one time.

Let’s look at the raw data for each of the Bubble Teams.

Team	NET	COM	SOS	NSOS	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Away	Today
Arizona St.	66	66	62	123	5-6	4-5	5-0	8-1	12-7
Clemson	57	63	123	312	4-4	3-2	7-2	9-2	8-9
Mississippi St.	49	50	43	204	4-8	4-3	5-1	8-0	9-8
Nevada	37	42	24	70	4-5	4-3	10-2	3-0	8-9
North Carolina	46	44	12	18	2-9	5-4	7-0	6-0	8-10
North Texas	38	46	83	112	1-3	3-2	11-1	9-1	14-5
Oklahoma St.	43	38	11	158	6-12	4-2	3-1	5-0	7-10
Oregon	47	40	28	7	2-9	7-4	5-1	5-0	6-9
Pittsburgh	67	77	86	122	4-4	3-5	5-1	10-1	8-8
Rutgers	40	35	48	219	5-7	5-3	2-4	7-0	5-9
UAB	52	54	119	293	2-3	1-3	9-1	12-1	10-6	FAU
Utah St.	18	18	20	29	2-4	9-1	13-0	1-2	12-5	SDSU
Vanderbilt	79	79	6	12	5-9	5-1	5-2	5-1	8-8	TXAM
Wisconsin	82	75	36	118	6-8	5-5	1-1	5-0	8-8

These are not all the factors, but they are a lot of the factors that will lead to the final selections by the NCAA Selection Committee, and me. There is a wildcard factor called “The Eye Test,” which is the Committee’s one non-mathematical part of the puzzle. Nobody will ever admit this, but this is their “good ole boy” method of selecting the big name program over the “little guy” when the data is close enough to justify their selection. Every year, CBS announcers will question the head of the Committee about why a big team got the final bid when a 30-4 Mid-major team was left out. One year, the excuse will be that Goliath had a better Net Rating than Mouse Tech. The next year, when Mouse Tech has the better Net, the excuse will be that Goliath had a better non-conference strength of schedule. The next year, when Mouse Tech has a better Net and Strength of Schedule, the excuse will be that Goliath had a 5-9 record against Q1 opponents, while Mouse Tech was 3-2. You get the picture. There is but one real reason why, if it is close enough, Goliath always gets the nod over Mouse Tech. The reasons can come after the fact.

Our final bracket reveal will publish here on Selection Sunday, as soon as the last game that can affect the bracket goes final. There are some potential bid-stealers still playing.

In the American Athletic Conference, Houston and Memphis are locks. So, if Cincinnati or Tulane wins the automatic bid, one Bubble will burst.

Red hot Ohio State has advanced to the Big Ten semifinals. If the Buckeyes beat Purdue today and then either Indiana or Penn State tomorrow, they are in with the automatic bid.

If UAB beats Florida Atlantic today in the CUSA Championship Game, FAU is close to a sure thing to receive an at-large bid.

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date	3/10/2023
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Alabama	Houston	Kansas	Purdue
2	UCLA	Texas	Baylor	Arizona
3	Kansas St.	Gonzaga	Marquette	Tennessee
4	Connecticut	Xavier	Virginia	Indiana
5	Iowa St.	Miami (Fla)	San Diego St.	TCU
6	Saint Mary’s	Creighton	Kentucky	Duke
7	Texas A&M	Michigan St.	Northwestern	Missouri
8	Maryland	Illinois	Arkansas	Iowa
9	Florida Atlantic	Memphis	Auburn	Boise St.
10	West Virginia	Providence	North Carolina St.	USC
11	Utah St.	Rutgers	Pittsburgh	Mississippi St.	Penn St.	Arizona St.
12	Oral Roberts	Drake	Charleston	VCU
13	Toledo	Utah Valley	Iona	Yale
14	Louisiana	Furman	UC Santa Barbara	Colgate
15	Kennesaw St.	Vermont	UNC Asheville	Montana St.
16	N. Kentucky	Texas A&M-CC	SE Missouri St.	Grambling	Howard	Fairleigh Dickinson

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Starting Today, First Four Out and Next Four Out give way to the teams that can still work their way into the Field of 68 if they keep winning. There are six teams on the Bubble but not currently in the Bracket Prediction above. Additionally, there is a definite potential bid-stealer.

Teams (In Order) that can still play their way into the Field:

Oklahoma St.

Clemson

Oregon

North Texas

Vanderbilt

UAB

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Potential Bid-Stealer: Ohio St.

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Potential At-large addition if they lose in their tournament: Florida Atlantic

PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Wednesday, March 8, 2023

Home	Visitor	Spread
Alcorn St.	Texas Southern	2.9
Arizona St.	Oregon St.	11.3
Colgate	Lafayette	9.4
Colorado St.	Fresno St.	2.2
Davidson	St. Bonaventure	2.7
Duquesne	La Salle	6.6
Florida Intl.	Louisiana Tech	-3.7
George Mason	Richmond	1.6
George Washington	Saint Joseph’s	-0.8
Georgia	LSU	-0.7
Grambling	Bethune Cookman	11.2
Howard	South Carolina St.	8.2
Iona	Mount St. Mary’s	13.8
Montana St.	Northern Arizona	6.7
Nebraska	Minnesota	7.3
New Mexico	Wyoming	8.1
North Carolina	Boston College	10.9
North Carolina Central	Delaware St.	12.9
North Carolina St.	Virginia Tech	1.8
Oklahoma St.	Oklahoma	1.3
Pittsburgh	Georgia Tech	7.5
Rice	UTSA	5.6
Rider	Marist	6.5
Seton Hall	DePaul	7.5
South Carolina	Mississippi	-6.4
St. John’s	Butler	3.2
Syracuse	Wake Forest	-2.4
Texas A&M-CC	Northwestern St.	1.3
UNLV	Air Force	5.3
Utah	Stanford	1.8
Villanova	Georgetown	10.7
Washington	Colorado	-4.7
Washington St.	California	13.6
West Virginia	Texas Tech	2.9
Western Kentucky	UTEP	1.0
Wisconsin	Ohio St.	-1.4

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Coming Later Today: Conference Tournament Schedules with TV & Updated Bracketology

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date	3/5/2023
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Alabama	Houston	Kansas	UCLA
2	Purdue	Texas	Baylor	Arizona
3	Marquette	Kansas St.	Tennessee	Gonzaga
4	Connecticut	Xavier	Indiana	Virginia
5	San Diego St.	Saint Mary’s	Iowa St.	Miami (Fla)
6	TCU	Creighton	Kentucky	Duke
7	Texas A&M	Michigan St.	Iowa	Northwestern
8	Maryland	Missouri	Illinois	Arkansas
9	Florida Atlantic	Boise St.	Auburn	Providence
10	West Virginia	Memphis	USC	Rutgers
11	North Carolina St.	Pittsburgh	Mississippi St.	Nevada	Utah St.	Arizona St.
12	Oral Roberts	Hofstra	VCU	Bradley
13	Kennesaw St.	Utah Valley	Toledo	Iona
14	Louisiana	Yale	UC Santa Barbara	Furman
15	Colgate	E. Washington	Vermont	Youngstown St.
16	UNC Asheville	Grambling	Howard	Texas A&M-CC	SE Missouri St.	Fairleigh-Dickinson

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Last 4 Byes: USC, Rutgers, North Carolina St., Pittsburgh

Last 4 In: Mississippi St., Nevada, Utah St., Arizona St.

First 4 Out: Wisconsin, Oklahoma St., Penn St., North Carolina

Next 4 Out: Clemson, Michigan, Oregon, Vanderbilt

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Wednesday, March 1, 2023

Wednesday’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	Spread
Alabama	Auburn	11.0
Cal Baptist	UT-Rio Grande Valley	7.9
Campbell	Presbyterian	7.2
Connecticut	DePaul	18.3
Creighton	Georgetown	19.0
Davidson	George Washington	7.1
Duquesne	Massachusetts	7.3
East Carolina	Tulane	-5.8
Fairleigh Dickinson	St. Francis (NY)	6.9
George Mason	Fordham	3.3
Gonzaga	Chicago St.	26.3
High Point	Charleston Southern	0.1
Houston Christian	Southeastern Louisiana	-4.7
Kansas St.	Oklahoma	6.8
Kentucky	Vanderbilt	9.4
Loyola (Chi)	Rhode Island	2.0
LSU	Missouri	-4.3
McNeese St.	New Orleans	3.8
Merrimack	Long Island	14.7
Nicholls St.	Lamar	12.5
Northwestern	Penn St.	3.7
Northwestern St.	Incarnate Word	11.5
Notre Dame	Pittsburgh	-4.7
Ohio St.	Maryland	-1.1
Providence	Xavier	0.7
Sacred Heart	Wagner	0.0
Saint Joseph’s	Richmond	-0.2
SIU Edwardsville	Southern Indiana	0.9
South Florida	Tulsa	12.4
Southeast Missouri St.	Lindenwood	4.9
Southern Utah	Grand Canyon	3.9
St. Francis (PA)	Central Connecticut St.	2.6
Stephen F. Austin	Sam Houston St.	-1.8
TCU	Texas	0.3
Texas A&M-Commerce	Texas A&M-CC	2.5
UNLV	Utah St.	-1.9
Utah Tech	Seattle	-0.6
Utah Valley	UT Arlington	12.1

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Wednesday’s Conference Tournament Schedule

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Big South Conference — Charlotte

1st Round (ESPN+)

#8 High Point (14-16) vs. #9 Charleston Southern (9-20) 6 PM EST

#7 Campbell (13-17) vs. #10 Presbyterian (5-26) 8 PM EST

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Northeast Conference — Higher Seed Hosts All Games

Quarterfinals (necfrontrow.com) (All Games at 7 PM EST)

#8 Long Island (3-25) at #1 Merrimack (15-16) ^

#7 St. Francis (NY) (14-15) at #2 Fairleigh Dickinson (17-14)

#6 Central Connecticut St. (10-21) at #3 St. Francis (PA) (12-17)

#5 Sacred Heart (15-16) at #4 Wagner (15-12)

^ Merrimack is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament. If the Warriors win the NEC Tournament, Fairleigh Dickinson will received the automatic bid.

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Ohio Valley Conference — Evansville, IN

1st Round (ESPN+)

#5 Southeast Missouri St. (15-16) vs. #8 Lindenwood (11-20) 7:30 PM EST

#6 SIU Edwardsville (18-13) vs. #7 Southern Indiana (16-15) 10 PM EST

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date	2/27/2023
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Alabama	Houston	Kansas	Purdue
2	UCLA	Texas	Baylor	Arizona
3	Kansas St.	Tennessee	Marquette	Gonzaga
4	Indiana	Connecticut	Xavier	Iowa St.
5	Virginia	Miami (Fla)	TCU	San Diego St.
6	Saint Mary’s	Creighton	Northwestern	Maryland
7	Kentucky	Illinois	Michigan St.	Duke
8	Providence	Texas A&M	Arkansas	Iowa
9	Rutgers	Missouri	Nevada	North Carolina St.
10	Florida Atlantic	Auburn	Boise St.	USC
11	Mississippi St.	West Virginia	Pittsburgh	Memphis	Wisconsin	Oklahoma St.
12	Oral Roberts	VCU	Bradley	Hofstra
13	Southern Miss.	Utah Valley	Toledo	Iona
14	Kennesaw St.	UC-Irvine	Colgate	Furman
15	E. Washington	Vermont	Penn	Youngstown St.
16	UNC Asheville	Texas A&M-CC	Morehead St.	Grambling	Howard	Fairleigh Dickinson

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Last 4 Byes: Boise St., USC, Mississippi St., West Virginia

Last 4 In: Pittsburgh, Memphis, Wisconsin, Oklahoma St.

First 4 Out: Arizona St., Michigan, North Carolina, Penn St.

Next 4 Out: Clemson, Utah St., New Mexico, Texas Tech

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Tuesday, February 21, 2023

Home	Visitor	Spread
Air Force	Fresno St.	2.5
Arkansas	Georgia	14.2
Ball St.	Kent St.	-4.9
Buffalo	Central Michigan	9.8
Creighton	Marquette	3.6
Eastern Michigan	Western Michigan	1.6
Kansas St.	Baylor	0.3
Miami (O)	Bowling Green	1.4
Michigan St.	Indiana	0.5
Missouri	Mississippi St.	1.7
Missouri St.	Murray St.	5.3
Nevada	San Jose St.	10.0
Ohio	Northern Illinois	9.4
Oklahoma	Texas Tech	2.2
Pittsburgh	Georgia Tech	11.8
Richmond	Saint Louis	-1.5
Robert Morris	Youngstown St.	-5.4
Saint Joseph’s	VCU	-5.1
San Diego St.	Colorado St.	11.8
Texas	Iowa St.	5.7
Texas A&M	Tennessee	-3.2
Toledo	Akron	2.7
Tulsa	East Carolina	-2.1
Virginia Tech	Miami (Fla)	-0.4
Wyoming	Utah St.	-6.7
Xavier	Villanova	8.5