The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 16, 2017

Red, White, and Blue Ratings for Friday’s NCAA Tournament Games

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:39 am

NCAA Tournament–Friday, March 17, 2017

Team Team Red White Blue
Michigan Oklahoma St. -1 3 1
Baylor New Mexico St. 11 12 13
Arkansas Seton Hall 2 1 -1
Oregon Iona 11 12 10
Louisville Jacksonville St. 18 18 17
SMU USC 8 8 4
North Carolina Texas Southern 22 20 19
Creighton Rhode Island 4 1 2
Kansas UC-Davis 22 19 18
Dayton Wichita St. -7 -5 -1
Duke Troy 15 16 14
Cincinnati Kansas St. 2 5 2
Miami (Fla.) Michigan St. 1 2 -2
Kentucky Northern Kentucky 19 18 13
South Carolina Marquette 1 -1 1
UCLA Kent St. 16 14 10

 

TV Schedule

Time (EDT) Network Team vs. Team
12:15 PM CBS Michigan vs. Oklahoma St.
12:40 PM truTV Baylor vs. New Mexico St.
1:30 PM TNT Arkansas vs. Seton Hall
2:00 PM TBS Oregon vs. Iona
2:45 PM CBS Louisville vs. Jacksonville St.
3:10 PM truTV SMU vs. USC
4:00 PM TNT North Carolina vs. Texas Southern
4:30 PM TBS Creighton vs. Rhode Island
6:50 PM TNT Kansas vs. UC-Davis
7:10 PM CBS Dayton vs. Wichita St.
7:20 PM TBS Duke vs. Troy
7:27 PM truTV Cincinnati vs. Kansas St.
9:20 PM TNT Miami (Fla.) vs. Michigan St.
9:40 PM CBS Kentucky vs. Northern Kentucky
9:50 PM TBS South Carolina vs. Marquette
9:57 PM truTV UCLA vs. Kent St.

 

 

 

March 12, 2017

Sunday March Madness Update

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:48 am

Rhode Island won an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament by topping VCU in the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament.  The Rams now must be moved into first round bye status, so now a new team must be lowered into the First Four in Dayton.

Our Gurus will not have time to send us those teams, so we will go with the lowest team that received a bye prior to URI being moved up.

Thus, Vanderbilt moves down to the First Four as an 11-seed to face USC and Wake Forest moves to a 12-seed to Kansas State in the other First Four game.

Selection Sunday Ayem–March 12, 2017

Like Xmas Day For A Basketball Junkie

5:30 PM Eastern DAYLIGHT Time cannot come quickly enough.  Today is the day fans of 68 teams get to open their March Madness presents.  Most of the teams that will be dancing know they are in, be it with an automatic bid or a for sure at-large bid.  The Bubble has shrunk to just a few teams, and our Bracketology Gurus believe they have the 68 teams this morning before any games are played today.  Only the seeding may be altered by today’s games, but they agree in 100% unison that the teams we will list are the 68 teams that will continue to pursue their National Championship dreams.

THE FINAL BUBBLE

California

Illinois St.

Iowa

Kansas St.

Rhode Island

Syracuse

USC

Vanderbilt

Wake Forest

Xavier

Room at the Inn for six of these 10 teams, so which six make it, and which 4 are number one seeds in the NIT?

The six we have in are (alphabetically): Kansas State, Rhode Island, USC, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, and Xavier.

The four that will need tissues to wipe their tears are: California, Illinois State, Iowa, and Syracuse

The one that the Gurus believe should be in over one that should be out is Illinois State rather than USC.  However, the Gurus are selecting based on how they predict the Selection Committee will select, and even through the rules state that teams are not chosen within a conference by conference basis, subconsciously the members will look and see that they cannot exclude both Cal and the Trojans.  USC’s win over SMU is the reason the men of Troy get in over the men of Berkeley.

 

There are six games left to be played, and the seed lines could change based on who wins, but the Committee does not change their final seedings within the last two hours, so the final scores of some of the games will be official after the final seeding has been done.  Thus, the AAC and Big Ten Championship Games will still be underway when the final seeds are completed.  Only the name of the Sun Belt Conference Champion will have to be added late, and the Committee can already put the first letter of that champion on the board–a “T” (Texas State or Troy).

 

Here is today’s schedule.

American Athletic Conference Championship
Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 SMU 29-4 vs. 2 Cincinnati 29-4 3:15 PM ESPN
                 
Atlantic 10 Conference Championship
Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
4 Rhode Island 23-9 vs. 2 VCU 26-7 12:30 PM CBS
                 
Big Ten Conference Championship
Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
8 Michigan 23-11 vs. 2 Wisconsin 25-8 3:00 PM CBS
                 
Ivy League Conference Championship
Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 Princeton 22-6 vs. 3 Yale 18-10 12:00 PM ESPN2
                 
Southeastern Conference Championship
Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 Kentucky 28-5 vs. 3 Arkansas 25-8 1:00 PM ESPN
                 
Sun Belt Conference Championship
Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
4 Texas St. 20-12 vs. 6 Troy 21-14 2:00 PM ESPN2
                 
Selection Sunday
5:30 PM EDT on CBS
 
NCAA Tournament
First Four: March 14-15
                 
Second Round: March 16-17
                 
Third Round: March 18-19
                 
Sweet 16: March 23-24
                 
Elite Eight: March 25-26
                 
Final Four: April 1
                 
National Championship: April 3

The Bracketology Gurus Field of 68

  1. Villanova, Gonzaga, Kansas, North Carolina
  2. Duke, Arizona, Kentucky, Oregon
  3. Baylor, Louisville, Florida St., UCLA
  4. West Virginia, Butler, Notre Dame, Cincinnati
  5. Florida, Iowa St., Virginia, Purdue
  6. Wisconsin, SMU, Minnesota, Michigan
  7. Creighton, Arkansas, Saint Mary’s, Wichita St.
  8. Maryland, Miami (Fla.), VCU, Virginia Tech
  9. Northwestern, Oklahoma St., Dayton, Seton Hall
  10. Michigan St., South Carolina, Marquette, Providence
  11. Middle Tennessee, Xavier, Vanderbilt, USC, Wake Forest
  12. UNC-Wilmington, Nevada, Vermont, Rhode Island, Kansas St.
  13. Bucknell, Princeton, Winthrop, East Tennessee St.
  14. Florida Gulf Coast, New Mexico St., Iona, Northern Kentucky
  15. Texas Southern, Kent State, Jacksonville St., North Dakota
  16. Texas St., UNC-Central, New Orleans, South Dakota St., UC-Davis, Mount St. Mary’s

Last Four Byes: Marquette, Providence, Vanderbilt, Xavier

Last Four In (Dayton Bound): USC vs. Wake Forest, Rhode Island vs. Kansas St.

First Four Out (#1 Seeds in NIT): California, Illinois St., Iowa, and Syracuse

 

Coming Next:  We go dark for 48 hours.  Tuesday morning, we will premier PiRate Bracketnomics for 2017 with a total primer on how we handle our bracket picking and outright winners of games for you that failed to heed our warnings and chose to wager your hard-earned dollars in Vegas or offshore.  FWIW, we have heard from a half-dozen of you that you have found something in our Blue Ratings that have made you handsome profits this year.  We hope that continues for you, but please do not rely on just our ratings to wager money with books in Vegas.  We don’t want the guilt trip when you cannot pay your April Mortgage or car payment.

In addition to Bracketnomics, we will also give you all the raw data to use for yourself.  We will have a spreadsheet of all 68 teams with their Four Factors, their PiRate Specific Ratings, and then follow that up with how the teams fit in our Final Four footprint.  We have backtested the data we use as far back as each statistic allows us to do, and we will include that in our preview.

Tell all your friends to check us out.  The Tuesday preview is our most visited entry of the year, even more than our Super Bowl and College Playoff National Championship football editions.

 

But remember our axiom: We are just a bunch of math nerds doing this for fun.  Please wager responsibly, or like us just wager a lunch with your friend.  Also, remember that you have a better chance of being abducted by aliens from space while being struck by lightning, as you hold the winning Power Ball and Mega Millions lottery tickets while getting a kiss from a supermodel (all at the same time) than you do of picking a perfect bracket.

Note: Special Congrats go to Renato Nunez on his impressive home run at Hohokam Park yesterday against the Rangers.

December 29, 2016

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview For December 29, 2016

Welcome to the PiRate Ratings’ return to college basketball coverage.  There are changes in the numbers this season, and we are excited to debut our annual Red-White-and-Blue Ratings for the 2016-17 college basketball season.

First, we have tweaked our Blue formula algorithm this year by giving a little more emphasis to true shooting percentage and the complimentary defensive metric in limiting shooting percentage.  In recent seasons, turnover margin has begun to mean a little bit less than it did a decade ago, and there are fewer truly dominant rebounding teams out there.  So, the college game for the time being is all about making shots and preventing the other team from making shots.  It sounds silly, as that should be all that matters (hitting baskets and stopping the other team from making them), but turnovers and rebounds gives teams more opportunities to take shots and make shots, while reducing the number of opportunities teams give to their opponents.  Rebounding and turnover rates are still vital, as we merely reduced the percentage of the total contribution by a couple basis points.

Next up, we plan on totally revising our NCAA  Tournament Bracketology data this season.  Our old formula has been performing with mediocre results in recent years, and we have decided to go 80% Four Factors and 20% PiRate Criteria this season and see what happens.  The R+T factor will still be part of our presentation, as it is still very effective at weeding out pretenders from contenders.

Until the Big Dance, we will concentrate our efforts on conference games and big non-conference games between teams from the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, and SEC.  Because we have to input the stats for every team for every game, it is not possible to do this for every Division I game.  But, because all we need for our ratings are the current updated stats, we can always rate any game, thus, if we want to rate a Missouri Valley Conference big game, we can add it to the slate.

Additionally, following the New Year’s, expect our chosen selections to run just one day a week, most likely Friday, and it will include that weekend’s games.  We will also provide commentary on the entire division, as we tend to receive a lot of readership when we report on the low-major and mid-major conferences.

Let’s get started with this week’s pre-New Year’s report.

PiRate Top 10

thru games of 12/28/16

  1. Villanova
  2. Virginia
  3. Duke
  4. West Virginia
  5. Kansas
  6. Baylor
  7. North Carolina
  8. Louisville
  9. Wisconsin
  10. Kentucky

ACC

  1. Virginia
  2. Duke
  3. North Carolina
  4. Louisville
  5. Florida St.
  6. Clemson
  7. Notre Dame
  8. Miami
  9. Virginia Tech
  10. Syracuse
  11. Wake Forest
  12. Pittsburgh
  13. North Carolina St.
  14. Georgia Tech
  15. Boston College

This league is so loaded this year that #13 North Carolina State is strong enough to compete for the SEC Championship.  Only the bottom two are considered out of the running for an NCAA  Tournament bid.

Big East

  1. Villanova
  2. Butler
  3. Xavier
  4. Creighton
  5. Marquette
  6. Seton Hall
  7. Georgetown
  8. Providence
  9. St. John’s
  10. DePaul

Until they lose, reigning national champion Villanova rules the roost in the league and nationally.  The Wildcats had a close one last night against the cellar dweller, but one game does not knock them off their perch, as long as it is a win.  As of today, it looks like five teams would make the Dance.

Big Ten

  1. Wisconsin
  2. Purdue
  3. Michigan
  4. Indiana
  5. Northwestern
  6. Ohio St.
  7. Maryland
  8. Minnesota
  9. Michigan St.
  10. Iowa
  11. Illinois
  12. Nebraska
  13. Penn St.
  14. Rutgers

It looks like Northwestern is in line to finally make it to the Big Dance.  A strong 12-2 start for the Wildcats needs only a winning conference record and one conference tournament win to get that elusive bid.

Big 12

  1. West Virginia
  2. Kansas
  3. Baylor
  4. Texas Tech
  5. Kansas St.
  6. Iowa St.
  7. TCU
  8. Oklahoma St.
  9. Oklahoma
  10. Texas

Yes, the Longhorns and Sooners bring up the rear as conference play is set to begin.  The other 8 teams look to be NCAA Tournament bound as of today with the top 3 teams the equal of the top three in the ACC.

Pac-12

  1. UCLA
  2. Arizona
  3. Oregon
  4. USC
  5. Colorado
  6. California
  7. Utah
  8. Stanford
  9. Washington
  10. Arizona St.
  11. Oregon St.
  12. Washington St.

Even with UCLA’s last second loss at Oregon, the Bruins stay atop the Pac-12 standings.  This league looks like a 4 or 5-bid league as of now.

SEC

  1. Kentucky
  2. Florida
  3. South Carolina
  4. Texas A&M
  5. Arkansas
  6. Georgia
  7. Ole Miss
  8. Alabama
  9. Tennessee
  10. Vanderbilt
  11. Auburn
  12. LSU
  13. Mississippi St.
  14. Missouri

Kentucky and Florida rank well ahead of the other dozen in this league this year.  South Carolina, Texas A&M, Arkansas, and Georgia sit on a separate shelf above the remaining eight teams.  This could be as little as a two-bid league but no more than a four-bid league as of now.

Low and Mid-Major Teams in the mix for at-large bids

It is getting more difficult to label Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s as Mid-Major teams.  The two WCC powers are both in our top 25 teams this week.

Cincinnati out of the American Conference is really a power team, even though the AAC has lost some prestige.  SMU is in the same boat, but the Mustangs need to do a little more work to be a for sure at-large team this year.

Wichita State has earned the same privilege as Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s.  The Shockers belong in the list of at-large possibles.

The only real low-major team in consideration for a possible at-large bid would be UNC-Wilmington from the Colonial Athletic Association.  UNCW has the talent to get to the Sweet 16, and they scared the daylights out of Duke in the NCAA Tournament last year.

This Week’s Selections

Normally, this would be a list for Saturday/Sunday games, but due to the New Year’s Holiday, we are beginning with a list of Thursday games.  Once again, we will concentrate only on the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, and SEC conference games, as well as any games among highly ranked teams.

Each Rating is derived from the Four Factors with separate algorithmic equations.  An explanation of the Four Factors follows below.

Games Scheduled for: Thursday, December 29, 2016
Home Visitor Red White Blue
Texas A&M Tennessee 8 11 9
Auburn Georgia 1 2 -3
Ole Miss Kentucky -12 -7 -8
LSU Vanderbilt 2 5 -3
Arkansas Florida -1 -4 -7
St. John’s Butler -6 -8 -11
Gonzaga Pepperdine 25 24 28
Loyola Marymount Saint Mary’s -10 -11 -14

The Four Factors in basketball are:

  1. Effective Field Goal Percentage
  2. Turnover Rate
  3. Offensive Rebounding Rate
  4. Free Throw Rate

These factors apply to both offense and defense, so in effect each team has Eight Factors.

Effective Field Goal Percentage

[FG +(0.5*3pt)]/FGA (expressed as a percentage)

Where FG is field goals made, 3pt is 3-point shots made, and FGA is field goal attempts

If a team makes 25 of 55 field goals and sinks 6 three-pointers, their EFG% is:

[25+(0.5*6)]/55 = 50.9% or 50.9

Turnover Rate

TOV/[FGA+(0.475*FTA)+TOV] (expressed as a percentage)

Where TOV is turnovers, FGA is Field Goal Attempts, and FTA is Free Throw Attempts

If a team commits 12 turnovers, takes 55 field goal attempts and 23 free throw attempts, their turnover rate is:

12/[55+(.475*23)+12]=15.4%

Offensive Rebounding %

OR/(OR+Opponents DR) (expressed as a percentage)

Where OR is offensive rebounds and DR is defensive rebounds

If a team gets 8 offensive rebounds, and their opponents get 26 defensive rebounds, their Offensive Rebounding % is:

8/(8+26) = 23.5%

Free Throw Rate

Basketball analytics gurus differ on how to rate this stat.  We align with those that favor free throws made per 100 possessions.

FT/[FGA+(0.475*FTA)+TOV-OR] (expressed as a percentage)

Where FT is Free throws made, FGA is field goal attempts, TOV is turnovers, and OR is offensive rebounds

If a team made 17 out of 23 free throw attempts with 55 field goal attempts, 12 turnovers, and 8 offensive rebounds, their FT Rate is:

17/[55+(0.475*23)+12-8] = 24.3%

The Red, White, and Blue Ratings use these statistics (both offensively and defensively) for the first 8 parts of the equation.  Part Number 9 is Strength of Schedule, and each rating adjusts a little differently for this.  Part Number 10 is Home Court Advantage (as well as occasional away from home disadvantage for teams that play much worse away from home than at home).

These 10 parts are then put through three separate algorithms to come up with three different ratings.  The difference in the ratings is the spread for the game.

 

November 20, 2016

College Football Ratings & Spreads For November 22-26, 2016

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:06 pm

And Down The Stretch They Come
If your favorite team is in a conference with a conference championship game, then this is your team’s final regular season week. If not, then your team may have two more regular season games left. Let’s take a look at each conference to see where the races stand.

American
East: Temple controls its own destiny. If the Owls beat East Carolina in Philly this week, they are the division champs. If Temple loses, then South Florida can become division champs with a win over Central Florida. UCF is bowl eligible.

West: Navy has already clinched the division title regardless of what the Midshipmen do at SMU this week. Oddly, they will play the AAC Championship Game on December 3 and then face Army the week after. Navy is still technically alive for a Cotton Bowl bid should Western Michigan lose, so they cannot accept the Armed Forces Bowl bid just yet.
Houston, Memphis, and Tulsa are bowl eligible, and SMU needs to upset Navy to get to 6-6.

ACC
Atlantic: Clemson has secured the division flag and will advance to the conference championship game. Louisville and Florida State are still alive for an Orange Bowl berth, while Wake Forest is bowl eligible. North Carolina State must upset North Carolina in Chapel Hill on Friday to become bowl eligible, while Boston College stands at 5-6 and would earn bowl eligibility with a win at Wake Forest. However, the Eagles might still receive a bid at 5-7 due to their high position in APR score. Syracuse has a very slim chance of getting to a bowl at 5-7 if they win at Pitt in the season finale.

Coastal: Virginia Tech will clinch the division title with a win over Virginia. Should the Hokies fall, then North Carolina can win the title by topping North Carolina St. If both Virginia Tech and UNC lose, even though there could be a three or four-way tie including Pitt and Miami, the Hokies would win the tiebreaker and face Clemson in the ACC Championship Game.
Duke is 4-7 and needs to win at Miami to become the top 5-7 team for an alternate bowl bid.

Big 12
The winner of the Oklahoma-Oklahoma State game two Saturdays from now takes the Big 12 title. If it is Oklahoma, the Sooners are still alive for a Playoff berth. If it is Okie State, the Cowboys would secure the Sugar Bowl spot. West Virginia, Baylor, and Kansas State are also bowl eligible. Texas at 5-6 must beat TCU this week to become bowl eligible, while TCU must beat either Texas this week or Kansas State the following week to become bowl eligible.

Big Ten
East: If Michigan beats Ohio State, the Wolverines are division champs. If Ohio State wins, then Penn State would be the division champion if they beat Michigan State. If Ohio State wins and Penn State loses, the Buckeyes would be the division champs. Indiana must beat Purdue, and Maryland must take out Rutgers for the Hoosiers and Terrapins to become bowl eligible.

West: Although Iowa and Minnesota can still finish in a multiple-way tie, only Wisconsin or Nebraska can win the division. If UW beat Minnesota, the Badgers are in the conference championship game. If UW loses, and Nebraska wins at Iowa, the Cornhuskers earn the division flag. In addition to Iowa and Minnesota, Northwestern can become bowl eligible if the Wildcats beat Illinois. If the Illini win, the Wildcats still have an excellent chance of getting to a bowl at 5-7, since NU is second to Duke in APR score.

Conference USA
East: Western Kentucky will win the division title with a win at Marshall. If the Hilltoppers lose this game, then Old Dominion would win the flag with a win over Florida International. If both WKU and ODU lose, then WKU would back into the title. Middle Tennessee is also bowl eligible.

West: Louisiana Tech has already clinched the division title. UTSA is bowl eligible and will earn its first ever bowl game. Southern Miss must beat La. Tech to become bowl eligible, while North Texas needs to beat UTEP to become bowl eligible, although the Mean Green could sneak into a bowl at 5-7 due to their high APR score (better than Boston College, Indiana, Maryland, Syracuse).

FBS Independents
Notre Dame is 4-7, and if the Irish upset USC in LA, at 5-7, it is not sure whether the Irish would accept a bowl bid. They would not be guaranteed to get in, as they have the #30 APR score.
BYU has accepted the Poinsettia Bowl bid that was theirs if they became bowl eligible.
Army is 6-5, but the Black Knights are not yet bowl eligible, as two of those wins are against FCS schools. The Cadets must beat Navy to become bowl eligible, but a loss to drop them to 6-6 would almost assuredly still allow the West Pointers to earn an alternate bowl bid, as 6-6 with two FCS wins trumps any 5-7.

Mid-American
East: Ohio U wins the division with a victory over Akron this week. If the Bobcats lose this game, then Miami of Ohio can win the division with a victory over Ball St. If the Redhawks win, they will become the first team to ever go to a bowl after starting a season 0-6. If Ohio wins, Miami will still get a bowl with a win. Akron must beat Ohio to become bowl eligible.
West: Western Michigan is a win over Toledo and over Ohio or Miami from getting to the Cotton Bowl. If the Rockets upset the Broncos, then it will be Toledo heading to the MAC Championship Game. Central Michigan and Eastern Michigan are also bowl eligible.

Mountain West
Mountain: Wyoming was picked to finish last in the division, but a Cowboy win over New Mexico will give them the division title. If the Lobos win, then Boise State can earn the flag again with a win at Air Force. If New Mexico, Wyoming, and Boise State end up in a tie, the Cowboys take the flag in the tiebreaker. Air Force and Colorado State are also bowl eligible.

West: San Diego State clinched the division title some time ago. They could be looking at a rematch with Wyoming. Hawaii can get to 6-7 with a win over UMass this week, and the Rainbow Warriors would rank ahead of all 5-7 teams in the alternate bowl pecking order.

Pac-12
North: The division title will be decided in the Palouse this week in the Apple Cup Game, as Washington State hosts Washington. Stanford is the only other division team that is bowl eligible. Oregon can sneak into a bowl at 5-7 with a win over Oregon State, while California would have a miniscule chance of getting to a bowl at 5-7 with a win over UCLA.

South: If Colorado beats Utah, the Buffs win the division. If Utah wins, then USC takes the flag. Besides these three, Arizona State needs to beat Arizona to become bowl eligible, while UCLA can get into the 5-7 sweepstakes with a win at Cal. The Bruins are rather far back in APR score and would need a lot of 5-6 and 4-7 teams to lose.

Southeastern
East: Florida clinched the division with their win at LSU. Tennessee is still alive for a NY 6 bowl if they beat Vanderbilt, and Florida loses to Florida State. Georgia, Kentucky, and South Carolina are bowl eligible. Vanderbilt is 5-6, and if the Commodores do not upset Tennessee this week, they can still get into a bowl due to an APR score that ranks just behind Duke and Northwestern and ahead of everybody else in contention.

West: Alabama has already clinched the division regardless of what happens against Auburn. Auburn is already bowl eligible, as is LSU, Texas A&M, and Arkansas. Ole Miss must beat Mississippi State to become bowl eligible.

Sun Belt
Arkansas State lost its first four games, including one to FCS Central Arkansas. Since then, ASU has won six games in a row and has remaining road games against UL-Lafayette and Texas State. The Red Wolves will most likely win both to finish 8-0 in league play, but if ULL upsets ASU, Appalachian State can tie for the league title with a win over New Mexico State this week. Since the two contenders did not play, the conference race would end in a tie. Troy and Idaho are also bowl eligible. South Alabama is 5-5 with games left against Idaho and New Mexico State. The Jaguars must win both to become bowl eligible at 7-5, as they have two FCS wins, but there is a chance the NCAA could grant them leniency for beating Presbyterian after having to relinquish a game against LSU. Still, at 6-6, USA would be headed to a bowl because there will not be enough bowl eligible teams to fill 80 spots. UL-Lafayette must beat Arkansas State and UL-Monroe to become bowl eligible.

Number of Bowl Eligible Teams at Present: 66
Number of Bowl Eligible Teams Projected by PiRate Ratings: 74
Number of non Bowl Eligible Teams Projected to earn bowl bids: 6

Our bowl projections follow at the end of this submission.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 137.5 130.9 137.6 135.3
2 Ohio St. 127.4 127.0 127.7 127.4
3 Michigan 127.5 125.6 127.3 126.8
4 Washington 127.9 121.2 127.2 125.4
5 Clemson 127.4 121.0 126.4 124.9
6 Louisville 125.1 121.1 125.1 123.8
7 Oklahoma 124.0 122.4 123.8 123.4
8 LSU 123.9 119.3 123.3 122.2
9 USC 124.0 119.1 122.5 121.9
10 Auburn 120.3 118.5 120.1 119.6
11 Florida St. 121.8 115.8 121.1 119.6
12 Wisconsin 119.5 117.0 120.2 118.9
13 Colorado 119.3 114.9 119.4 117.9
14 Oklahoma St. 117.2 118.2 116.7 117.4
15 Penn St. 116.5 117.1 116.4 116.7
16 Miami 118.4 112.9 118.3 116.5
17 Pittsburgh 118.1 114.0 117.5 116.5
18 North Carolina 118.4 112.7 118.3 116.5
19 Washington St. 117.3 114.1 116.9 116.1
20 Virginia Tech 116.1 114.7 116.1 115.6
21 Tennessee 116.0 113.6 115.2 114.9
22 Florida 114.6 115.6 113.1 114.4
23 Stanford 115.9 109.6 115.4 113.6
24 Western Michigan 112.7 112.6 114.3 113.2
25 Texas A&M 113.4 112.0 112.8 112.7
26 Iowa 113.1 110.5 112.9 112.2
27 Houston 111.7 110.5 113.1 111.8
28 Notre Dame 112.6 109.8 111.7 111.4
29 Arkansas 112.5 108.2 111.0 110.6
30 Utah 112.5 107.6 111.0 110.4
31 Kansas St. 109.3 111.3 109.4 110.0
32 BYU 111.0 106.5 111.1 109.5
33 West Virginia 109.7 109.2 109.2 109.4
34 South Florida 109.8 107.9 110.3 109.3
35 San Diego St. 108.5 107.2 110.4 108.7
36 Temple 108.7 108.0 109.4 108.7
37 Georgia Tech 110.1 106.2 109.2 108.5
38 Nebraska 109.3 106.9 109.0 108.4
39 TCU 107.9 109.4 106.9 108.1
40 UCLA 108.9 107.1 108.0 108.0
41 Georgia 108.4 107.9 107.7 108.0
42 Ole Miss 109.3 105.6 108.0 107.6
43 Northwestern 108.6 105.2 107.5 107.1
44 Texas 106.8 108.3 105.8 107.0
45 Michigan St. 107.7 106.6 106.4 106.9
46 Minnesota 107.4 105.8 107.1 106.8
47 Western Kentucky 107.0 104.8 108.3 106.7
48 Boise St. 105.8 106.8 106.6 106.4
49 Tulsa 105.6 106.8 106.4 106.3
50 Baylor 105.5 106.3 105.6 105.8
51 Navy 106.2 104.7 106.3 105.8
52 Mississippi St. 106.2 104.3 105.0 105.2
53 North Carolina St. 106.3 103.1 105.9 105.1
54 Indiana 104.5 105.7 104.1 104.8
55 Memphis 105.6 103.4 104.7 104.6
56 Oregon 105.0 103.1 104.0 104.0
57 Toledo 103.0 103.6 104.0 103.5
58 Vanderbilt 104.8 101.6 103.6 103.4
59 Iowa St. 103.4 103.2 102.6 103.1
60 Wake Forest 102.2 100.3 102.5 101.7
61 Arizona St. 102.5 100.9 101.0 101.5
62 Kentucky 101.4 102.0 100.9 101.4
63 Virginia 102.6 99.8 101.7 101.4
64 Duke 101.3 100.5 100.7 100.8
65 Louisiana Tech 99.0 101.0 101.0 100.3
66 Appalachian St. 99.1 100.3 100.7 100.0
67 South Carolina 100.1 99.8 99.8 99.9
68 Texas Tech 100.2 99.5 99.1 99.6
69 Central Florida 97.9 99.1 98.7 98.6
70 Missouri 98.4 97.5 97.7 97.9
71 California 100.8 94.5 98.4 97.9
72 Boston College 98.2 96.8 97.4 97.5
73 Oregon St. 99.3 94.8 98.1 97.4
74 Syracuse 98.6 95.4 96.8 97.0
75 Air Force 96.0 97.8 96.1 96.6
76 Arkansas St. 95.1 97.4 97.0 96.5
77 Wyoming 95.6 95.7 96.6 96.0
78 SMU 95.2 94.7 97.3 95.8
79 Maryland 95.4 97.7 93.6 95.6
80 Northern Illinois 94.5 95.8 95.4 95.2
81 Colorado St. 94.3 95.9 95.4 95.2
82 Central Michigan 93.2 95.2 93.6 94.0
83 New Mexico 92.9 95.2 93.6 93.9
84 Ohio 91.8 97.4 92.5 93.9
85 Troy 91.3 95.4 93.2 93.3
86 Army 89.1 95.5 90.3 91.6
87 Arizona 92.5 90.2 90.8 91.2
88 Cincinnati 90.9 91.7 90.3 91.0
89 Miami (O) 89.9 91.4 91.4 90.9
90 Old Dominion 89.2 92.2 90.4 90.6
91 Illinois 91.8 89.0 90.7 90.5
92 UTSA 86.8 92.6 89.1 89.5
93 Purdue 90.4 88.9 89.0 89.4
94 Utah St. 88.5 91.2 88.2 89.3
95 Middle Tennessee 88.3 89.9 88.5 88.9
96 East Carolina 87.8 89.3 87.8 88.3
97 Eastern Michigan 86.9 89.0 87.6 87.8
98 Connecticut 88.2 87.3 87.6 87.7
99 UNLV 86.1 88.8 86.6 87.2
100 Kansas 86.4 90.5 84.3 87.1
101 Bowling Green 86.6 87.4 86.9 87.0
102 Georgia Southern 85.4 86.4 86.9 86.3
103 Rutgers 87.2 85.4 85.7 86.1
104 Idaho 83.6 88.6 85.6 85.9
105 Southern Mississippi 85.5 86.1 85.5 85.7
106 Nevada 84.6 86.8 85.2 85.6
107 Ball St. 84.2 86.4 85.0 85.2
108 Tulane 83.5 87.2 84.1 84.9
109 Kent St. 84.1 85.6 85.0 84.9
110 South Alabama 82.1 88.4 82.9 84.5
111 San Jose St. 84.2 84.2 84.1 84.2
112 Akron 81.4 86.6 82.2 83.4
113 UL-Lafayette 81.2 85.6 82.8 83.2
114 Florida International 81.4 85.6 82.0 83.0
115 Marshall 81.1 84.7 81.7 82.5
116 North Texas 81.0 83.8 81.5 82.1
117 Massachusetts 79.8 85.3 80.7 81.9
118 Georgia St. 79.2 83.4 81.2 81.3
119 Hawaii 80.9 80.5 80.6 80.7
120 Rice 76.8 83.0 77.3 79.0
121 Charlotte 76.7 82.2 77.4 78.8
122 Fresno St. 77.2 80.6 76.9 78.2
123 Buffalo 75.8 81.9 76.3 78.0
124 Florida Atlantic 75.2 79.9 77.6 77.6
125 New Mexico St. 74.7 77.6 75.7 76.0
126 UTEP 70.9 75.8 72.1 73.0
127 UL-Monroe 70.4 75.4 71.3 72.4
128 Texas St. 62.5 65.0 63.4 63.6

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 109.8 107.9 110.3 109.3
Temple 108.7 108.0 109.4 108.7
Central Florida 97.9 99.1 98.7 98.6
Cincinnati 90.9 91.7 90.3 91.0
East Carolina 87.8 89.3 87.8 88.3
Connecticut 88.2 87.3 87.6 87.7
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 111.7 110.5 113.1 111.8
Tulsa 105.6 106.8 106.4 106.3
Navy 106.2 104.7 106.3 105.8
Memphis 105.6 103.4 104.7 104.6
SMU 95.2 94.7 97.3 95.8
Tulane 83.5 87.2 84.1 84.9
         
AAC Averages 99.3 99.3 99.7 99.4
         
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 127.4 121.0 126.4 124.9
Louisville 125.1 121.1 125.1 123.8
Florida St. 121.8 115.8 121.1 119.6
North Carolina St. 106.3 103.1 105.9 105.1
Wake Forest 102.2 100.3 102.5 101.7
Boston College 98.2 96.8 97.4 97.5
Syracuse 98.6 95.4 96.8 97.0
         
Coastal Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 118.4 112.9 118.3 116.5
Pittsburgh 118.1 114.0 117.5 116.5
North Carolina 118.4 112.7 118.3 116.5
Virginia Tech 116.1 114.7 116.1 115.6
Georgia Tech 110.1 106.2 109.2 108.5
Virginia 102.6 99.8 101.7 101.4
Duke 101.3 100.5 100.7 100.8
         
ACC Averages 111.7 108.2 111.2 110.4
         
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 124.0 122.4 123.8 123.4
Oklahoma St. 117.2 118.2 116.7 117.4
Kansas St. 109.3 111.3 109.4 110.0
West Virginia 109.7 109.2 109.2 109.4
TCU 107.9 109.4 106.9 108.1
Texas 106.8 108.3 105.8 107.0
Baylor 105.5 106.3 105.6 105.8
Iowa St. 103.4 103.2 102.6 103.1
Texas Tech 100.2 99.5 99.1 99.6
Kansas 86.4 90.5 84.3 87.1
         
Big 12 Averages 107.0 107.9 106.3 107.1
         
Big Ten Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 127.4 127.0 127.7 127.4
Michigan 127.5 125.6 127.3 126.8
Penn St. 116.5 117.1 116.4 116.7
Michigan St. 107.7 106.6 106.4 106.9
Indiana 104.5 105.7 104.1 104.8
Maryland 95.4 97.7 93.6 95.6
Rutgers 87.2 85.4 85.7 86.1
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 119.5 117.0 120.2 118.9
Iowa 113.1 110.5 112.9 112.2
Nebraska 109.3 106.9 109.0 108.4
Northwestern 108.6 105.2 107.5 107.1
Minnesota 107.4 105.8 107.1 106.8
Illinois 91.8 89.0 90.7 90.5
Purdue 90.4 88.9 89.0 89.4
         
Big Ten Averages 107.6 106.3 107.0 107.0
         
Conference USA
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 107.0 104.8 108.3 106.7
Old Dominion 89.2 92.2 90.4 90.6
Middle Tennessee 88.3 89.9 88.5 88.9
Florida International 81.4 85.6 82.0 83.0
Marshall 81.1 84.7 81.7 82.5
Charlotte 76.7 82.2 77.4 78.8
Florida Atlantic 75.2 79.9 77.6 77.6
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 99.0 101.0 101.0 100.3
UTSA 86.8 92.6 89.1 89.5
Southern Mississippi 85.5 86.1 85.5 85.7
North Texas 81.0 83.8 81.5 82.1
Rice 76.8 83.0 77.3 79.0
UTEP 70.9 75.8 72.1 73.0
         
CUSA Averages 84.5 87.8 85.6 86.0
         
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame 112.6 109.8 111.7 111.4
BYU 111.0 106.5 111.1 109.5
Army 89.1 95.5 90.3 91.6
Massachusetts 79.8 85.3 80.7 81.9
         
Independents Averages 98.1 99.3 98.5 98.6
         
Mid-American Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio 91.8 97.4 92.5 93.9
Miami (O) 89.9 91.4 91.4 90.9
Bowling Green 86.6 87.4 86.9 87.0
Kent St. 84.1 85.6 85.0 84.9
Akron 81.4 86.6 82.2 83.4
Buffalo 75.8 81.9 76.3 78.0
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 112.7 112.6 114.3 113.2
Toledo 103.0 103.6 104.0 103.5
Northern Illinois 94.5 95.8 95.4 95.2
Central Michigan 93.2 95.2 93.6 94.0
Eastern Michigan 86.9 89.0 87.6 87.8
Ball St. 84.2 86.4 85.0 85.2
         
MAC Averages 90.3 92.8 91.2 91.4
         
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 105.8 106.8 106.6 106.4
Air Force 96.0 97.8 96.1 96.6
Wyoming 95.6 95.7 96.6 96.0
Colorado St. 94.3 95.9 95.4 95.2
New Mexico 92.9 95.2 93.6 93.9
Utah St. 88.5 91.2 88.2 89.3
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 108.5 107.2 110.4 108.7
UNLV 86.1 88.8 86.6 87.2
Nevada 84.6 86.8 85.2 85.6
San Jose St. 84.2 84.2 84.1 84.2
Hawaii 80.9 80.5 80.6 80.7
Fresno St. 77.2 80.6 76.9 78.2
         
MWC Averages 91.2 92.6 91.7 91.8
         
Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 127.9 121.2 127.2 125.4
Washington St. 117.3 114.1 116.9 116.1
Stanford 115.9 109.6 115.4 113.6
Oregon 105.0 103.1 104.0 104.0
California 100.8 94.5 98.4 97.9
Oregon St. 99.3 94.8 98.1 97.4
         
South Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 124.0 119.1 122.5 121.9
Colorado 119.3 114.9 119.4 117.9
Utah 112.5 107.6 111.0 110.4
UCLA 108.9 107.1 108.0 108.0
Arizona St. 102.5 100.9 101.0 101.5
Arizona 92.5 90.2 90.8 91.2
         
Pac-12 Averages 110.5 106.5 109.4 108.8
         
Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Tennessee 116.0 113.6 115.2 114.9
Florida 114.6 115.6 113.1 114.4
Georgia 108.4 107.9 107.7 108.0
Vanderbilt 104.8 101.6 103.6 103.4
Kentucky 101.4 102.0 100.9 101.4
South Carolina 100.1 99.8 99.8 99.9
Missouri 98.4 97.5 97.7 97.9
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 137.5 130.9 137.6 135.3
LSU 123.9 119.3 123.3 122.2
Auburn 120.3 118.5 120.1 119.6
Texas A&M 113.4 112.0 112.8 112.7
Arkansas 112.5 108.2 111.0 110.6
Ole Miss 109.3 105.6 108.0 107.6
Mississippi St. 106.2 104.3 105.0 105.2
         
SEC Averages 111.9 109.8 111.1 110.9
         
Sunbelt Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 99.1 100.3 100.7 100.0
Arkansas St. 95.1 97.4 97.0 96.5
Troy 91.3 95.4 93.2 93.3
Georgia Southern 85.4 86.4 86.9 86.3
Idaho 83.6 88.6 85.6 85.9
South Alabama 82.1 88.4 82.9 84.5
UL-Lafayette 81.2 85.6 82.8 83.2
Georgia St. 79.2 83.4 81.2 81.3
New Mexico St. 74.7 77.6 75.7 76.0
UL-Monroe 70.4 75.4 71.3 72.4
Texas St. 62.5 65.0 63.4 63.6
         
Sun Belt Averages 82.2 85.8 83.7 83.9

Conference Ratings

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 111.9 109.8 111.1 110.9
2 ACC 111.7 108.2 111.2 110.4
3 Pac-12 110.5 106.5 109.4 108.8
4 Big 12 107.0 107.9 106.3 107.1
5 Big Ten 107.6 106.3 107.0 107.0
6 AAC 99.3 99.3 99.7 99.4
7 Independents 98.1 99.3 98.5 98.6
8 MWC 91.2 92.6 91.7 91.8
9 MAC 90.3 92.8 91.2 91.4
10 CUSA 84.5 87.8 85.6 86.0
11 Sun Belt 82.2 85.8 83.7 83.9

PiRate Retrodictive Rankings

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Ohio St.
3 Clemson
4 Michigan
5 Wisconsin
6 Washington
7 Penn St.
8 USC
9 Colorado
10 Western Michigan
11 Oklahoma
12 Louisville
13 Florida St.
14 Auburn
15 Boise St.
16 Florida
17 Nebraska
18 Washington St.
19 Stanford
20 Oklahoma St.
21 Texas A&M
22 Tennessee
23 Houston
24 South Florida
25 LSU
26 West Virginia
27 North Carolina
28 Virginia Tech
29 Pittsburgh
30 Miami (Fla)
31 Navy
32 Utah
33 Iowa
34 Temple
35 San Diego St.
36 Tulsa
37 Arkansas
38 Toledo
39 BYU
40 Minnesota
41 Kansas St.
42 Georgia
43 Western Kentucky
44 Appalachian St.
45 Georgia Tech
46 Ole Miss
47 Troy
48 Wyoming
49 Memphis
50 Louisiana Tech
51 Northwestern
52 Baylor
53 TCU
54 Air Force
55 UCLA
56 Indiana
57 Oregon
58 Colorado St.
59 Kentucky
60 Central Florida
61 Arizona St.
62 Vanderbilt
63 Texas
64 Arkansas St.
65 North Carolina St.
66 Wake Forest
67 South Carolina
68 Old Dominion
69 Notre Dame
70 California
71 New Mexico
72 Mississippi St.
73 Maryland
74 Ohio
75 SMU
76 Idaho
77 Boston College
78 Duke
79 Eastern Michigan
80 Middle Tennessee
81 Oregon St.
82 Texas Tech
83 Michigan St.
84 Syracuse
85 Central Michigan
86 Iowa St.
87 Missouri
88 Army
89 UTSA
90 Miami (O)
91 Northern Illinois
92 South Alabama
93 Illinois
94 Cincinnati
95 Georgia Southern
96 Arizona
97 Akron
98 Utah St.
99 Southern Miss.
100 Hawaii
101 UNLV
102 Virginia
103 North Texas
104 UL-Lafayette
105 East Carolina
106 Tulane
107 Purdue
108 Ball St.
109 Rutgers
110 Bowling Green
111 San Jose St.
112 UL-Monroe
113 Kent St.
114 Georgia St.
115 Connecticut
116 Nevada
117 Kansas
118 Charlotte
119 New Mexico St.
120 Florida Int’l.
121 Marshall
122 Rice
123 Massachusetts
124 Florida Atlantic
125 UTEP
126 Texas St.
127 Fresno St.
128 Buffalo

This Week’s Spreads

November 22-26
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Tuesday, November 22
Ohio U Akron 12.4 12.8 12.3
Miami (O) Ball St. 8.2 7.5 8.9
Eastern Michigan Central Michigan -3.8 -3.7 -3.5
         
Thanksgiving Day, November 24
Texas A&M LSU -7.5 -4.3 -7.5
         
Black Friday, November 25
Kent St. Northern Illinois -7.9 -7.7 -8.9
North Carolina North Carolina St. 13.6 11.1 13.9
Memphis Houston -3.1 -4.1 -5.4
Bowling Green Buffalo 13.8 8.5 13.6
Missouri Arkansas -11.1 -7.7 -3.3
Washington St. Washington -8.1 -4.6 -7.8
Air Force Boise St. -6.8 -6.0 -7.5
Texas TCU 0.9 0.9 0.9
Iowa Nebraska 6.8 6.6 6.9
Southern Miss. Louisiana Tech -13.5 -11.9 -15.5
Western Michigan Toledo 12.7 12.0 13.3
Texas Tech Baylor -2.3 -3.8 -3.5
Tulsa Cincinnati 17.7 18.1 19.1
Arizona Arizona St. -8.0 -8.7 -8.2
         
Saturday, November 26
Georgia Georgia Tech 0.3 3.7 0.5
Louisville Kentucky 25.2 20.6 25.7
Kansas St. Kansas 24.4 22.3 26.6
Maryland Rutgers 11.2 15.3 10.9
Ohio St. Michigan 2.9 4.4 3.4
Indiana Purdue 16.1 18.8 17.1
Northwestern Illinois 18.3 17.7 18.3
South Florida Central Florida 13.9 10.8 13.6
Virginia Tech Virginia 15.0 16.4 15.9
UL-Lafayette Arkansas St. -11.4 -9.3 -11.9
Pittsburgh Syracuse 22.5 21.6 23.7
Wake Forest Boston College 7.0 6.5 8.1
Miami (Fla.) Duke 20.1 15.4 20.6
Old Dominion Florida Int’l. 10.3 9.1 10.9
Fresno St. San Jose St. -4.5 -1.1 -4.7
Ole Miss Mississippi St. 5.1 3.3 5.0
Alabama Auburn 19.2 14.4 19.5
USC Notre Dame 14.4 12.3 13.8
SMU Navy -8.0 -7.0 -7.0
Iowa St. West Virginia -3.3 -3.0 -3.6
Penn St. Michigan St. 11.8 13.5 13.0
Wisconsin Minnesota 14.6 13.7 15.6
Idaho South Alabama 4.5 3.2 5.7
Texas St. Troy -26.3 -27.9 -27.3
New Mexico St. Appalachian St. -21.4 -19.7 -22.0
Connecticut Tulane 7.7 3.1 6.5
Oregon St. Oregon -3.2 -5.8 -3.4
UNLV Nevada 3.5 4.0 1.4
UTEP North Texas -8.1 -6.0 -7.4
Middle Tennessee Florida Atlantic 16.1 13.0 13.9
Marshall Western Kentucky -22.9 -17.1 -23.6
UTSA Charlotte 13.1 13.4 14.7
California UCLA -5.1 -9.6 -6.6
Colorado Utah 9.8 10.3 11.4
Clemson South Carolina 29.3 23.2 29.6
Vanderbilt Tennessee -10.2 -11.0 -10.6
Temple East Carolina 23.9 21.7 24.6
Stanford Rice 42.1 29.6 41.1
Florida St. Florida 9.2 2.2 10.0
San Diego St. Colorado St. 17.2 16.3 18.0
New Mexico Wyoming 0.3 2.5 0.1
BYU Utah St. 24.5 17.3 24.9
Hawaii Massachusetts 5.1 -0.8 3.9

Bowl Projections

This week, we project just 74 teams becoming bowl eligible, which means six teams would need to be picked as non bowl-eligible alternates.  Three of those teams could be 6-6 Army, 6-6 South Alabama, and 6-7 Hawaii.  That would leave room for three 5-7 teams.

We have a unique thought this week.  The Armed Forces Bowl could very well need to fill one of its spots with one of these alternates.  Why not take Army, since it is the Armed Forces Bowl?  The opponent would be Navy.  It is out of the ordinary for bowls to have rematch games, but in this case, if Army and Navy play a close game in Baltimore on December 10, why not have a rematch in a bowl?  In the past, LSU and Ole Miss hooked up in the Sugar Bowl after playing a close game in the regular season, as did Nebraska and Oklahoma, when they met again in the Orange Bowl.  The Rose Bowls from past years have seen multiple rematch games.

Here are our projections for this week.  Note that BYU’s bid is already secured.

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
New Mexico MWC CUSA New Mexico vs. UTSA
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC Arizona St. vs. San Diego St.
Cure AAC SBC Tulsa vs. Appy St.
Camellia MAC SBC Miami (O) vs. Troy
New Orleans CUSA SBC Old Dominion vs. Arkansas St.
Miami Beach AAC MAC South Florida vs. Toledo
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Houston vs. W. Kentucky
Poinsettia MWC BYU Wyoming vs. * BYU *
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Eastern Mich. vs. Boise St.
Bahamas AAC/CUSA MAC/CUSA Temple vs. Ohio U
Armed Forces Navy Big 12 Navy vs. {Army}
Dollar General MAC SBC Central Mich. vs. Idaho
Hawaii CUSA MWC Louisiana Tech vs. Air Force
St. Petersburg AAC ACC/ND Central Florida vs. {Vanderbilt}
Quick Lane ACC/ND Big Ten {Boston College} vs. Northwestern
Independence SEC ACC/ND Ole Miss vs. {Oregon}
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA Maryland vs. Middle Tenn.
Military ACC/ND AAC Wake Forest vs. Memphis
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa vs. Washington St.
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 TCU vs. {Hawaii}
Pinstripe ACC/ND Big Ten Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota
Russell Athletic ACC/ND Big 12 North Carolina vs. Kansas St.
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Indiana vs. Stanford
Texas Big 12 SEC Baylor vs. Auburn
Birmingham AAC SEC {South Alabama} vs. Kentucky
Belk ACC/ND SEC Virginia Tech vs. South Carolina
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 West Virginia vs. USC
Liberty Big 12 SEC Texas vs. Arkansas
Sun ACC/ND Pac-12 Miami (Fla.) vs. Utah
Arizona CUSA/SBC MWC/SBC North Texas vs. Colorado St.
Music City ACC/ND/B10 SEC Nebraska vs. Georgia
Orange ACC/ND B10/SEC Louisville vs. Michigan
Citrus ACC/ND/B10 SEC Florida St. vs. Texas A&M
TaxSlayer ACC/ND/B10 SEC Georgia Tech vs. LSU
Peach Semifinal Semifinal Alabama vs. Oklahoma
Fiesta Semifinal Semifinal Clemson vs. Ohio St.
Outback Big Ten SEC Penn St. vs. Florida
Cotton At-Large At-Large Western Mich. vs. Washington
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Wisconsin vs. Colorado
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma St. vs. Tennessee
Championship Semifinal Winners Alabama vs. Clemson
           
           
* Team * This Team Has Officially Accepted This Bid
{Team} Alternate Selection of non-bowl eligible team
[Team] At-Large Selection

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 17, 2016

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–November 17-21, 2016

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:00 am

Abbreviated Post today due to time concerns.

Here are our 5 parlay picks for this week

 

November 15-21, 2016
1. College Parlay at +120
Memphis over Cincinnati
Pittsburgh over Duke
South Florida over SMU
 
2. College Parlay at +318
Virginia Tech over Notre Dame
Central Florida over Tulsa
 
3. College Parlay at +163
Ole Miss over Vanderbilt
USC over UCLA
Nebraska over Maryland
LSU over Florida
Utah over Oregon
 
4. NFL Parlay at +132
Indianapolis over Tennessee
Detroit over Jacksonville
 
5. NFL Parlay at +139
Kansas City over Tampa Bay
Seattle over Philadelphia
N.Y. Giants over Chicago

 

November 10, 2016

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–November 10-14, 2016

Emulating Ted Williams
The members of the PiRate Ratings include a couple of baseball analytic specialists that work during the Major League baseball season as “Moneyball” scouts. You know the type we talk about–when you see a baseball defense shift on a pull hitter, and the hitter hits a sharp liner that bounces into the short outfield, but instead of this becoming a base hit, it is a simple ground out, and the fans all boo because they believe this ruins the game, you can thank some of us for giving the baseball team the data that tells the manager where to place that infielder in the short outfield.

There is a lot more to it. How likely is the player to hit a ground ball on a 2-strike pitch as opposed to when he has no strikes or one strike? How much does it hurt or possibly help the starting pitcher the second and third time through a lineup of opposing batters? Our metric specialists can tell you. Of course, the famous batters’ heat maps are part of the services provided. The opposing pitcher, catcher, and coaching staff know that Joe Lefty hits .150 on sliders on the outside corner at the knees and when he does hit the ball, 95.6% of the time it is a ground ball in the 56 hole (the area halfway between where the third baseman and shortstop normally align.

So, when we tell you we know for a fact how often a .299 hitter will play in game 162 as opposed to a .300 hitter, and how much that .299 hitter will be swinging away on the final game of the season, we know that the .299 hitter in Game 162 will only take a walk if it is intentional, and the .300 hitter will do just about anything to stay out of game 162. Even the .301 or .302 hitter will want to be taken out after a hitless at bat that drops his average to anything above .2995.

Ted Williams was an exception to this rule, and for that reason, we admire greatly the “Greatest Hitter That Ever Lived.” In 1941, with his average just a fraction above .400, he did not have to play on the final day of the season. His manager told him he would sit him to protect the .400 average. After a few expletives delivered to the manager, Teddy Ball Game played not just one game but both games of a meaningless doubleheader.

Williams was not one to sit out a game just to pad his stats. The fact that his average only rounded up to .400 from .39955 also motivated him to play. So, what happened that Sunday afternoon? He got a hit in his first at bat of game one, and that brought his average over .400, with no rounding needed. Manager Joe Cronin told him to sit, and Willliams cussed and said he was playing both games from start to finish. Williams continued to hit and hit the rest of the afternoon and finished the season at .407.

What does this have to do with picking football games in parlays, you may ask? It is very simple. Last week, we selected six parlays all at better than 12-10 odds, and we won all six games! The mythical payout for this 6-0 week was a return on investment of 151%. For the season, that brought our batting average into positive territory, and we now show a 12% return on investment for the season.

We could easily ask the manager to take us out of the lineup and be safe knowing that we beat Las Vegas for the year. A 12% ROI is 5% better than the Dow Jones Industrial Average year-to-date return, and we would feel safe in saying that the DJIA is not going to return 12% this year.

Call us the Ted Williams of parlay pickers. We have no intention of sitting out and guaranteeing a winning season. First and foremost, if we go 6-0 every week for the rest of the year or the rest of our existence, it won’t be any different from going 0-6 forever, because as we hope by now you can recite in your sleep, “We NEVER really place monetary bets on anything.” Okay, if you say options in the options market are bets, then maybe you can say this, but the options market is different because it is a legitimate profession that supplies an essential function to the workings of the American Corporate economy.

Second, what fun would it be if we did not issue our wacky picks every week. So, you get picks again today, and you will get them next week and every week there is a full schedule of games. We hope to stay on the plus side of 0, but the important thing is to just enjoy the picks and give our reasons for why we believe out math might help us earn an extra few percentage points.

Therefore, here are our selections for this week.

1. College Parlay at +140
Georgia Southern over Louisiana-Lafayette
Virginia Tech over Georgia Tech
Notre Dame over Army
Miami (Fla.) over Virginia

The key selection here is the Notre Dame game. In our opinion, the Irish should be about -900 against Army, but the numbers are heavily skewed in Army’s favor. Ponder this. Notre Dame played Navy last week and got to experience the multiple option schemes of the Midshipmen in live game action. You cannot ask for better defensive preparation to face this offense than getting to face it two weeks in a row. We are old enough to remember when one third of all college teams ran either the wishbone or split veer offense. There were many times where a defense faced this offense in consecutive weeks, and the second time around, the results were much better for the defense, especially when the second opponent was not as good as the first. The percentage chance of performing much better against the second option team was something like 85 to 90%.

As a case in point, let’s look at our hometown team in Nashville, Vanderbilt. The year was 1974, and Coach Steve Sloan was about to guide the Commodores to a 7-3-1 regular season, the best in 19 years. In September of that year, Vanderbilt faced number one Alabama, who ran the wishbone under Bear Bryant and would be on the way to their second consecutive 11-0 regular season.

Vanderbilt gave Alabama its toughest game of the regular season, actually stopping their wishbone attack in the second half, losing 23-10. The following week, the Commodores hosted a ranked Florida team that used the same wishbone offense under Coach Doug Dickey. The Gators were running over opponents, but on this day, they met a Vanderbilt defense that had stopped Alabama’s offense in the second half the week before. Florida tried running the fullback inside, and Vanderbilt stuffed the run. They tried the outside veer and regular option, and Vanderbilt repeatedly threw Gator backs for losses. Only a couple of costly turnovers prevented the Commodores from slaughtering the Gators that day, and the 24-10 Vandy win was not indicative with how well the Commodore defense controlled the game.

For this reason, we were almost ready to take Notre Dame -510 and put up all of our profit to date and call this our only pick for the week. We believe the Irish have a 97% chance of winning this game and that Army will struggle to top 15 points.

2. College Parlay at +149
Wyoming over UNLV
North Carolina over Duke
Charlotte over Rice
Colorado over Arizona

3. Colege Parlay at +141
Washington over USC
Miami (Ohio) over Buffalo
Central Florida over Cincinnati
Washington St. over California

4. NFL Parlay at +147
Baltimore over Cleveland
Washington over Minnesota
Arizona over San Francisco

August 28, 2016

College Football Spreads for September 1-5 ,2016

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:32 am

After a sample taste of Bloomin’ Football Down Under, the college football season begins in earnest this week, kicking off with a host of games on Thursday night and finishing with the annual lone Monday Night Football Game during the regular college season.

 

There are a few things we failed to mention in our college conference previews this year, namely that our preseason ratings failed to produce a clear-cut dominant team or even a small group of dominant teams.  It is our opinions that this will be more of a balanced season with 20-25 teams capable of competing for their conference championships, and as many as 8-12 teams with reasonable beliefs they can earn a playoff spot.

 

There is reason for this parity.  The most recent dominant teams–Alabama, Oregon, Ohio State, Baylor, and even Clemson, figure to be a little less powerful than in recent years.  These teams can still win the national title, but they are not likely to go 12-0 in the regular season and outscore their opponents by an average of 40-10.

 

As a whole, the Pac-12 and Big Ten figure to be a couple points weaker this year than in recent seasons, while the Big 12 is about on par with last seasons, but with a minor changing of the guard, as we believe Texas will replace Baylor as one of the championship contenders.  The ACC appears to be on a slight rise, while the SEC remains the SEC.  While Alabama and Florida may be down a bit, LSU and Tennessee are moving up a bit, which should make the top league’s championship race one where the powers beat up on themselves and leaves every team with a league loss.

 

Because only one game involving FBS teams has been played, we will update the 128 teams after this weekend’s games.  Cal dropped a tiny bit while Hawaii rose a tiny bit, so it really does very little to the ratings, and we have already altered the Hawaii-Michigan game this weekend based on Hawaii’s result in Australia.

 

Here are this week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads.

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Alabama USC 6.8 4.7 7.0
Arizona BYU -1.4 4.3 -2.2
Arkansas Louisiana Tech 34.0 24.7 31.2
Arkansas St. Toledo -5.6 -1.2 -3.9
Auburn Clemson -9.3 0.4 -8.8
Boston College Georgia Tech 0.1 2.4 0.5
Colorado Colorado St. 18.8 11.5 18.0
Florida Massachusetts 42.5 36.3 38.9
Florida Intl. Indiana -16.1 -13.4 -13.6
Florida St. Mississippi 12.3 11.0 12.8
Georgia North Carolina -3.4 6.3 -3.5
Georgia St. Ball St. 0.6 4.0 2.6
Houston Oklahoma -13.5 -11.3 -11.2
Iowa Miami (Ohio) 36.8 31.3 35.7
Kentucky Southern Miss. 10.2 12.7 7.9
Louisiana-Lafayette Boise St. -24.6 -15.4 -24.1
Louisville Charlotte 49.1 34.2 46.9
Michigan Hawaii 45.7 45.1 47.0
Minnesota Oregon St. 10.0 12.8 12.7
Mississippi St. South Alabama 47.0 32.9 45.7
Nebraska Fresno St. 29.8 20.3 30.1
North Texas SMU -18.7 -14.5 -18.5
Northwestern Western Mich. 10.7 5.6 7.2
Ohio Texas St. 22.9 31.7 23.6
Ohio St. Bowling Green 19.6 21.8 19.2
Penn St. Kent 30.7 30.3 29.3
Stanford Kansas St. 21.2 8.3 20.9
Temple Army 19.7 9.7 18.2
Tennessee Appalachian St. 35.7 29.6 34.8
Texas Notre Dame 1.9 10.7 3.3
Texas A&M UCLA 4.2 4.2 4.7
Tulsa San Jose St. 11.7 14.2 11.5
UTEP New Mexico St. 4.3 6.5 4.4
Vanderbilt South Carolina 10.9 4.4 10.0
Wake Forest Tulane 22.6 15.6 22.0
Washington Rutges 24.4 18.2 25.8
West Va. Missouri 7.9 8.6 7.8
Western Kentucky Rice 17.1 1.7 17.4
Wisconsin LSU -17.0 -13.7 -15.8
Wyoming Northern Ill. -11.3 -12.9 -12.3

Every week, we will also reveal what we call estimated spreads for the games involving an FBS team playing an FCS team.  We say this is estimated, because it is simply a score-based formula similar to the original regular PiRate Rating of the 1970’s and 1980’s, before the advent of the Internet making data-mining so easy.  This is a raw estimate based on establishing a crude rating for the FCS team and the regular PiRate Rating for the FBS team.  We update the FBS team very marginally when they play an FCS team because of this.

 

FBS vs. FCS Week 1 Estimated
Home Visitor PiRate
Central Michigan Presbyterian 30.4
Connecticut Maine 26.2
Cincinnati UT-Martin 25.6
North Carolina St. William & Mary 28.1
Utah Southern Utah 32.3
Utah St. Weber St. 24.8
Idaho Montana St. 7.2
New Mexico South Dakota 15.2
UNLV Jackson St. 29.8
Eastern Michigan Mississippi Valley 28.5
Syracuse Colgate 26.2
Buffalo Albany 23.8
Michigan St. Furman 45.1
Baylor Northwestern St. 44.7
Nevada Cal Poly SLO 18.2
Navy Fordham 33.9
Purdue Eastern Kentucky 19.0
Maryland Howard 43.4
Virginia Tech Liberty 32.7
Pittsburgh Villanova 29.0
Air Force Abilene Christian 36.1
Virginia Richmond 18.3
Illinois Murray St. 32.8
Oklahoma St. SE Louisiana 44.1
Oregon UC-Davis 44.3
Duke UNC-Central 35.2
East Carolina Western Carolina 22.0
Florida Atlantic Southern Illinois 6.3
Georgia Southern Savannah St. 53.6
Miami (Fla) Florida A&M 49.0
Troy Austin Peay 32.5
Old Dominion Hampton 17.2
Akron VMI 28.9
South Florida Towson 31.6
Kansas Rhode Island 20.6
UL-Monroe Southern 14.9
UTSA Alabama St. 23.0
Central Florida South Carolina St. 14.8
Middle Tennessee Alabama A&M 43.0
Memphis SE Missouri 32.7
Iowa St. Northern Iowa 9.4
TCU South Dakota St. 31.2
Texas Tech Stephen F. Austin 34.6
Washington St. E. Washington 30.0
San Diego St. New Hampshire 29.9
Arizona St. Northern Arizona 28.6

Coming Wednesday–The PiRate Ratings will issue our initial JUST FOR FUN Moneyline Parlay wagers for week one of the college football season.  Last year, our moneyline parlays caught lightning in a bottle and finished with a hefty 40% return on investment, BUT that does not mean they are usable to throw away your hard earned money.  If you already know what you are doing, then maybe you can look at our selections with an expertise that will allow you to filter out our errors in judgment and find a small silver needle in the Nevada haystack.

 

There will be fewer selections since we normally include the NFL games in this weekly entry, and we do not fool with preseason games.  Beginning the following week, we expect to issue more selections.

 

August 22, 2016

2016 Pac-12 Conference Football Preview

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:45 am

The Pac-12 was the odd league out last season in the NCAA Playoffs, as league champion Stanford saw their chances to earn a bid end before they started last year. An opening week loss at Northwestern in which the Cardinal could not run the ball and could not average even 4.5 yards per pass attempt. After that game, Stanford averaged more than 40 points per game the rest of the season and almost 10 yards per pass attempt. It culminated with a blowout win over Iowa in the Rose Bowl.

This season, Stanford begins the year as our choice to be the fourth seed in the 2017 FBS Playoffs, but their path to the conference championship is cluttered by nine additional teams fully capable of beating anybody else in this league. The Pac-12 will be as competitive as it has ever been, and the PiRate believe that 10 teams will earn bowl elibility this season, including the entire South Division. Yes, even Colorado is improved enough to go 6-6 and earn its first bowl bid in nine years.

The North Division has the two bottom-feeding teams to begin the 2016 season. California must start over with a major rebuild after losing top draft selection Jared Goff and the top six pass receivers on offense and their top three defensive stars. The Golden Bears and Oregon State, which has returned to their familiar position of the 1970’s, 80’s, and 90’s, will fight it out in Corvallis in early October to see which team will avoid a possible 0-9 conference record.

The other four teams in the North Division will make for an excellent race this year. Stanford is the favorite to begin the season, but the Cardinal are not a shoo-in to win their division, much less the overall league championship. A new quarterback must be found to replace Kevin Hogan, but Coach David Shaw has a happy decision to make in replacing him. Both Keller Chryst and Ryan Burns are highly talented and able to put up better overall stats than Hogan.

Of course, whoever wins the starting job, or even if it becomes a platoon, the number one job for the QBs will be handing the ball off to Christian McCaffrey 25 times a game and getting out of the way. McCaffrey begins the season as one of two top candidates for the Heisman Trophy (Clemson’s DeShaun Watson being the other). McCaffrey led the Cardinal with more than 2,000 rushing yards in 2015, and he also led the team in receptions and receiving yards. A reloaded offensive line should allow SU to stay consistently strong all year, and hopefully for fans on The Farm, the team will not lay an egg in September, when most of the difficult games will be played.

Washington is the sexy pick of many pundits to win the North this year, as the Huskies return a lot of talent from a 7-6 team, including two capable quarterbacks and a running back that scored 14 rushing touchdowns and who will be running behind an experienced and talented offensive line.

The Huskies have a chance to be 4-0 when they face Stanford on Friday night, September 30, but they could also be 0-1 in the league and looking at elimination with a loss to SU.

Oregon missed Marcus Mariota enough to lose four games for the first time since 2007. The Ducks look to be in the same boat again this year, lacking enough offensive consistency to win games 52-42 every week, while having a defense that could give up 40 points per game in conference play. Adding a road game in Lincoln against Nebraska plus facing USC and Utah on the road from the other division means the Ducks are likely to lose four games again this year.

The Pirate worked his magic again last year. Coach Mike Leach guided Washington State to its first nine-win season in a dozen years. The Cougars shaved 11 points per game off their 2014 defensive average, while continuing to pass the ball better than any other team in the land. Luke Falk completed nearly 70% of his passes in his first year as a starter in Pullman with a TD/INT ratio of 38 to 8. Most of Falk’s receivers are back, and the pass blockers are talented enough to allow Falk time to find them. The WSU offense should be even better this year, and after averaging around 31 points per game for three years running, this team should top 35 per game this season. Keep an eye on this team: they could be the dark horse to challenge Stanford.

There is no clear-cut favorite in the South Division, and it would not be at all surprising if multiple teams finished tied for first at 6-3 or even 5-4. Home field advantages in Boulder, Salt Lake City, Tempe, Tucson, and Los Angeles are enough to turn underdogs into favorites, and no team in this division has the talent to be a prohibitive favorite over another team.

Somebody has to win a trip to the Conference Championship Game, and our choice from among the six fairly equal teams is USC. The Trojans must replace Cody Kessler at QB, but their offense is deep and talented, albeit not dominating everywhere else. Max Browne is the new starting quarterback. He has played sparingly in two seasons, but the former top QB in the 2012 class has a rifle arm and can throw the ball 50-60 yards with ease.

The Trojan defense will be suspect at the start of the season, especially up front where there will be an entirely new starting defensive line and two new linebackers. If any type of pass rush can be generated, the secondary could lead the league in interceptions, as the Trojans are loaded in the back of the defense.

UCLA has the missing the experienced quarterback in Josh Rosen, but the Bruins have a lot of holes to plug everywhere else on the offense. The Bruins lost their star running back and top two receivers, as well as three star offensive linemen. Rosen might be running for his life a bit too much for the Bruin offense to excel this year.

Defensively, The Sons of Westwood could lead the division in fewest points and yard allowed. 15 of the top 17 tacklers from 2015 are back including the entire front four and six of the front seven.

Arizona State, Arizona, Utah, and Colorado could play each other 100 times each and all win 50 times. There is very little separating these four teams, as each has its own strengths and exploitable weaknesses. Home field advantage should allow the quartet to pick up key conference wins in their paths to bowl eligibility. Other than Colorado’s September 17 game at Michigan, these teams should win all their remaining non-conference games this year. Hosting Oregon State, Arizona State, UCLA, Washington State, and Utah should give the Buffaloes a 50-50 chance at finding four additional wins after securing two against Colorado State and Idaho, so CU has a fighting chance to give 4th year coach Mike MacIntyre his first bowl team in Boulder.

Here is how the Pac-12 Media predicted the standings.

Pac-12 North Division
# Team 1st Pl. Total Champ.
1 Stanford 24 186 20
2 Washington 8 163 4
3 Oregon 1 132  
4 Washington St. 0 112  
5 California 0 67  
6 Oregon St. 0 33  
         
Pac-12 South Division
# Team 1st Pl. Total Champ.
1 UCLA 19 180 3
2 USC 12 173 5
3 Utah 2 127 1
4 Arizona 0 87  
5 Arizona St. 0 85  
6 Colorado 0 63  

Here is how the PiRate Ratings show the league at the start of the season.

Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Stanford 121.3 112.8 120.4 118.2
Washington 119.4 110.4 119.1 116.3
Oregon 112.8 111.8 111.7 112.1
Washington St. 112.3 107.6 112.0 110.7
California 104.7 93.3 101.0 99.7
Oregon St. 97.8 93.0 95.0 95.3
         
South Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 119.7 114.3 118.0 117.3
UCLA 110.9 110.2 110.3 110.5
Arizona St. 108.7 109.2 107.7 108.6
Utah 111.4 105.3 108.9 108.5
Arizona 107.2 105.2 106.1 106.2
Colorado 107.0 102.1 107.0 105.4
         
Pac-12 Averages 111.1 106.3 109.8 109.1

 

The PiRate Ratings are meant to be used only to predict the outcomes of the next week of games, and are not best used to predict beyond that point. Because we use algorithms that include automatic adjustments by each team based on depth and experience, two different teams can win by the exact score we predict, and their new ratings might change differently.

Thus, using our ratings to predict won-loss records and bowl projections is a bit comical, but then we all need some laughs every now and then. So, laugh away at our projected standings and bowls.

Pac-12 Conference Projected Standings
North Division
Team Conference Overall Bowl
Stanford 8-1 12-1 * Playoffs–Peach
Washington 7-2 10-2 Rose
Oregon 6-3 8-4 Holiday
Washington St. 5-4 8-4 Foster Farms
California 1-8 2-10  
Oregon St. 0-9 1-11  
       
South Division
Team Conference Overall Bowl
USC 7-2 9-4 Alamo
UCLA 6-3 7-5 Sun
Arizona St. 4-5 7-5 Las Vegas
Colorado 4-5 6-6 [St. Petersburg] *
Arizona 3-6 6-6 [Armed Forces] *
Utah 3-6 6-6 Cactus
       
* Colorado’s and Arizona’s bowl bids are at-large invitations

 

Coming Tomorrow: The Atlantic Coast Conference was once the weakest of the Power 5 leagues and arguably only on par with the old Big East Conference.  Now, the ACC is number two for the first time ever.

December 14, 2015

College Football Preview–Bowls & Playoffs Edition

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:01 pm

If you are looking for the complete bowl and playoff schedule including starting times, TV networks, and power rating spreads, then you have come to the right place.

The PiRate Ratings have suspended the rankings and ratings since only two teams played last week and very minimally changed the ratings.

Here is a complete bowl schedule

Bowl City Day Date Time Network Team Team
Cure Orlando, Fl Sat D19 12:00 PM CBSSN San Jose St. * Georgia St.
New Mexico Albuquerque, NM Sat D19 2:00 PM ESPN New Mexico Arizona *
Las Vegas Las Vegas, NV Sat D19 3:30 PM ABC Utah BYU
Camellia Montgomery, AL Sat D19 5:30 PM ESPN Ohio Appalachian St.
New Orleans New Orleans, LA Sat D19 9:00 PM ESPN Louisiana Tech Arkansas St.
Miami Beach Miami, FL Mon D21 2:30 PM ESPN South Florida W. Kentucky
Idaho Potato Boise, ID Tue D22 3:30 PM ESPN Akron Utah St.
Boca Raton Boca Raton, FL Tue D22 7:00 PM ESPN Temple Toledo
Poinsettia San Diego, CA Wed D23 4:30 PM ESPN Boise St. N. Illinois
GoDaddy Mobile, AL Wed D23 8:00 PM ESPN Bowling Green Ga. Southern
Bahamas Nassau, Bahamas Thu D24 12:00 PM ESPN Middle Tenn. Western Mich.
Hawaii Honolulu, HI Thu D24 8:00 PM ESPN Cincinnati San Diego St.
St. Petersburg St. Petersburg, FL Sat D26 11:00 AM ESPN Connecticut Marshall
Sun El Paso, TX Sat D26 2:00 PM CBS Miami Washington St.
Heart of Dallas Dallas, TX Sat D26 2:20 PM ESPN Washington * Southern Miss.
Pinstripe Bronx, NY Sat D26 3:30 PM ABC Duke Indiana
Independence Shreveport, LA Sat D26 5:45 PM ESPN Tulsa * Virginia Tech
Foster Farms Santa Clara, CA Sat D26 9:15 PM ESPN Nebraska UCLA
Military Annapolis, MD Mon D28 2:30 PM ESPN Pittsburgh Navy
Quick Lane Detroit, MI Mon D28 5:00 PM ESPN2 Central Mich. * Minnesota
Armed Forces Ft. Worth, TX Tue D29 2:00 PM ESPN California * Air Force
Russell Athl. Orlando, Fl Tue D29 5:30 PM ESPN North Carolina Baylor
Arizona Tucson, AZ Tue D29 7:30 PM  ***** Colorado St. * Nevada
Texas Houston, TX Tue D29 9:00 PM ESPN Texas Tech LSU
Birmingham Birmingham, AL Wed D30 12:00 PM ESPN Memphis Auburn
Belk Charlotte, NC Wed D30 3:30 PM ESPN N. Carolina St. Mississippi St.
Music City Nashville, TN Wed D30 7:00 PM ESPN Louisville Texas A&M
Holiday San Diego, CA Wed D30 10:30 PM ESPN Wisconsin USC
Peach Atlanta, GA Thu D31 12:00 PM ESPN Florida St. Houston
Orange Miami, FL Thu D31 4:00 PM ESPN Clemson Oklahoma
Cotton Arlington, TX Thu D31 8:00 PM ESPN Alabama Michigan St.
Ouback Tampa, FL Fri J1 12:00 PM ESPN2 Northwestern Tennessee
Citrus Orlando, Fl Fri J1 1:00 PM ABC Michigan Florida
Fiesta Glendale, AZ Fri J1 1:00 PM ESPN Ohio St. Notre Dame
Rose Pasadena, CA Fri J1 5:00 PM ESPN Iowa Stanford
Sugar New Orleans, LA Fri J1 8:30 PM ESPN Oklahoma St. Ole Miss
TaxSlayer Jacksonville, FL Sat J2 12:00 PM ESPN Penn St. Georgia
Liberty Memphis, TN Sat J2 3:20 PM ESPN Kansas St. Arkansas
Alamo San Antonio, FL Sat J2 6:45 PM ESPN TCU Oregon
Cactus Phoenix, AZ Sat J2 10:15 PM ESPN West Virginia Arizona St.
Nat’l Champ. Glendale, AZ Mon J11 8:30 PM ESPN Cotton Winner Orange Winner

***** Arizona Bowl will be streamed live on the Campus Insider’s website and will air in select markets via the American Sports Network

 
And, here are the PiRate Ratings for each bowl game.

Bowl Team Team PiRate Mean Bias
Cure San Jose St. Georgia St. 4.5 4.8 3.1
New Mexico New Mexico Arizona -12.6 -6.0 -12.0
Las Vegas Utah BYU 10.0 4.0 7.0
Camellia Ohio Appy St. -7.6 -6.3 -7.0
New Orleans La. Tech Ark. St. 4.1 2.6 2.6
Miami Beach South Florida W. Kentucky -5.9 -1.1 -6.3
Idaho Potato Akron Utah St. -12.5 -5.9 -8.6
Boca Raton Temple Toledo 3.2 4.9 3.5
Poinsettia Boise St. Northern Ill. 11.3 5.3 10.3
GoDaddy Bowl. Green Ga Southern 11.3 13.3 12.5
Bahamas Middle Tenn. Western Mich. -6.0 -7.6 -7.3
Hawaii Cincinnati S. Diego St. -3.7 -5.9 -3.6
St. Petersburg U Conn Marshall -6.9 -3.0 -5.3
Sun Miami Wash. St. -2.4 1.6 -2.1
Heart of Dallas Washington Southern Miss. 17.1 11.7 16.2
Pinstripe Duke Indiana 2.0 1.7 1.5
Independence Tulsa Virginia Tech -20.9 -16.5 -19.9
Foster Farms Nebraska UCLA -13.0 -8.9 -12.1
Military Pittsburgh Navy -0.4 -3.8 -1.2
Quick Lane Central Mich. Minnesota -13.3 -7.9 -11.0
Armed Forces California Air Force 16.3 7.6 15.0
Russell Athl. N. Carolina Baylor -1.8 2.6 -2.0
Arizona Colorado St. Nevada 3.1 -0.3 2.3
Texas Texas Tech LSU -11.7 -16.0 -11.1
Birmingham Memphis Auburn -7.9 -3.6 -6.3
Belk NC St. Miss. St. -5.1 -0.7 -6.6
Music City Louisville Texas A&M -8.4 -3.4 -6.5
Holiday Wisconsin USC -9.1 -4.8 -8.9
Peach Florida St. Houston 7.4 3.2 5.1
Orange Clemson Oklahoma -8.4 -3.9 -8.9
Cotton Alabama Michigan St. 11.8 11.9 11.7
Ouback Northwestern Tennessee -13.7 -9.6 -13.6
Citrus Michigan Florida -0.7 -0.4 -1.1
Fiesta Ohio St. Notre Dame 7.8 5.7 8.9
Rose Iowa Stanford -12.8 -8.4 -12.4
Sugar Oklahoma St. Ole Miss -9.6 -8.3 -9.2
TaxSlayer Penn St. Georgia -12.3 -7.9 -12.4
Liberty Kansas St. Arkansas -16.8 -20.4 -16.6
Alamo TCU Oregon 4.5 2.3 5.2
Cactus West Va. Arizona St. -2.5 -3.3 -2.7
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