The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 12, 2018

Selection Committee Got It Right–Only Because The Criteria Was Wrong

The NCAA Men’s Basketball Selection Committee is under fire today for how teams like Oklahoma, Arizona State,  and Syracuse made the tournament, while teams like Saint Mary’s, Middle Tennessee State, and USC did not.

Don’t blame this Committee.  They did not create the criteria that they use to select the teams.  You wouldn’t blame a jury if the judge orders them not to consider the most convincing evidence in a trial, and it produces the opposite verdict.

We are hearing interesting rumors that Louisville and USC received punitive treatment due to the impending FBI probe, but we do not buy into this rumor.

The reality is that Oklahoma, Arizona State, and Syracuse are in the field, and USC, Saint Mary’s, and Middle Tennessee are not.

The PiRate Bracket Gurus correctly picked 67 of the 68 teams, missing on USC versus Syracuse.  They don’t want to make this sound like sour grapes here, and they are not responsible in the least for our comments, but we find it a laughing joke that the Trojans did not make the tournament, while Arizona State did make the tournament.

Again, it is not the Committee’s fault that the most convincing evidence that would show the superior team was not admissible in this case.  USC finished in 2nd place in the Pac-12, while Arizona State finished tied for 8th place, with only three teams below the Sun Devils in the standings.  USC bested ASU by four games in the conference standings!

How can a team finish 22.2% better in the majority part of an identical schedule than another team and see the weaker team make the tournament, while they did not?  This is why March Madness is more mad due to inferior selection criteria.

We repeat a comparison we made earlier this season.  Take the NFL Playoffs.  Let’s say that during the first month of the season, The New York Giants beat Philadelphia, Dallas, Atlanta, and Pittsburgh and lead the NFC East at 4-0, while The Eagles are 2-2, with victories over Washington and Tampa Bay.

At this point in the season, the Giants are the best team in the NFL, while Philly is in the bottom half.  Now, from this point on, the Giants finish 5-7 for a 9-7 record.  The Eagles go 9-3 for an 11-5 record.

So, in the playoffs, the Giants are selected by the NFL Selection Committee due to their Quadrant 1 NFL wins in September, while the Eagles have to go to the Bert Bell Playoff Bowl in Miami (Google It–There really was a bowl game in the NFL).

If the NFL stages its playoffs this way, the league would be the laughingstock of sports.  The playoffs would be a big joke.  Yet, in college basketball, the public is brainwashed into believing that this giant tournament of mostly mediocrity is can’t miss entertainment.

The PiRates can easily miss seeing almost all these games where one or more of the combatants fared so poorly in the regular season that in decades past, their coaches might have been fired or put on a hot seat.

Allowing the 8th best team in a rather weak conference to have a chance to play for the national championship is par for the course in this everybody gets a trophy society.  When it comes down to it, neither USC nor Arizona State should have been invited to the NCAA Tournament.  Likewise, no team that did not win a conference championship should have been invited.  There are 32 conferences.  There should be 32 teams invited to the tournament, the 32 champions.

Before you say, “Hey Bucakroo, you cannot be serious about including Radford but not Duke,” let us preface that we favor just the 32 conference champions, but we also would favor handicapping the tournament so that the top 10 conference champions would receive byes to the Sweet 16, while the other 22 conference champions would have to compete in a play-in tournament to narrow from 22 to 12 to 6.  The 6 play-in winners would fill out the Sweet 16.

This is exactly how the NCAA Tournament used to be conducted.  Back in the 1960’s and early 1970’s, six to eight conference champions received automatic byes to the Sweet 16, while 14 to 18 other conference champions (and top Independents) were forced to play-in to the Sweet 16.  The bye conferences were determined by the past 5 years results in prior NCAA Tournaments.

Four plus decades ago, over half of the division 1 teams in the East were independents, playing in a loosely-knit organization called the ECAC (Eastern College Athletic Conference).  Prior to 1975, the ECAC was guaranteed two spots in the NCAA Tournament, while other Independents from the South, Midwest, and West could only be selected as at-large entries if and when the NCAA determined they were worthy.

Usually, 24 teams were selected for the NCAA Tournament.  There were eight teams that received byes and 16 teams that played into the Sweet 16.  On the third Saturday of March, the play-in games were played on neutral sites.  Then, on the following Thursday night (Friday night until 1968), the Sweet 16 Round was played, and the Elite 8 Round was played on Saturday.  There were regional consolation games to give each region four total games.

Then, the Final Four was played the following Thursday night with a consolation game and National Championship Game played on Saturday afternoon.  Starting in 1973, the Final Four moved to its present Saturday afternoon-Monday night format.

The explanation that the tournament became huge when it moved to 64 and then 68 teams is not actual fact.  The tournament was already big before it began to expand.  It would have continued to gain fan support if it had stayed exactly the same, and it is our opinion that it would be even bigger than it is today had it remained a tournament of conference champions.

With today’s format, a lot of really fantastic marquee games never happen.  The so-called media darling long shots that pull off a first round upset or sneak into the Sweet 16 eventually get blown out by a power conference team, giving the power conference team somewhat of a breather to the next round.  With 32 first round games, there are going to be a handful of upsets when a power team either overlooks the smaller school or comes out flat, while the other team plays the game of its lives.

The 1927 New York Yankees occasionally had an off day and lost to the Washington Senators (8 times that year).  They even lost a game to the St. Louis Browns.  There is always that odd day or night where things just don’t go the way they should 99% of the time.  It actually hurts the tournament when a #2 seed loses to a #15 seed, because the #15 seed isn’t going anywhere, while the #2 seed could have given the public a really incredible Elite 8 game against a #1 seed.

With that in mind, the PiRates have two separate ideas that would make the NCAA Basketball Tournament much better than it is now.  It would still give the Radford’s a real chance to compete for the title, and it would eliminate the ridiculous, human-error-laced, Selection Committee trying to create a reason why the 12-6 number two team from a power conference stays home, while the 8-10 number eight place (tied for 8th) team from that same conference makes the field.

Option A: Split Division 1 into D1 Large and D1 Small.  D1 Large would be the top 16 conferences, while D1 Small would be the bottom 16 conferences.

Conduct separate 16-team playoffs in the same manner that the NBA now uses.  4 rounds of best of 7 playoffs with the higher-ranked team getting home court advantage.  This option allows the home town fans a chance to see their team play on its home court, whereas only a handful of fans can afford to travel all over the map to watch them play in far away outposts.  How many Buffalo Bulls fans will make the trip to Boise, Idaho?

You could add a twist to the playoff formats and incorporate the relegation and promotion rules from soccer, where the conference of the Small Champion is promoted to Large, and the conference with the weakest-rated Large Champion being relegated to Small.

Imagine a Final Four with Arizona playing Kansas in a best of 7, and Virginia playing Michigan State in a best of 7.  What would the TV ratings be on these series rather than seeing a Sweet 16 game between one of these powers and a long shot low-major team that will lose by 20+ in the Sweet 16?  The two series would dwarf the ratings of today’s earlier rounds where teams are forced to play in the mornings and afternoons of weekdays.

Option B would be to revert back to how the tournament was conducted in the 1960’s and early 1970’s.  Take the 22 weakest conferences and send their champions to a 22 to 12 to 6 play-in.  Send the other 10 top conference champions expressly to the Sweet 16.

Sure, teams like North Carolina, Villanova, and Michigan would not be in the tournament, but then neither would be 8-10 Arizona State or 8-10 Syracuse.  Villanova, Michigan, Purdue, Duke, North Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee, Texas Tech, West Virginia, and USC among others would give the 16-team (like it was when it was great) NIT a great group of teams, so great that they could return to playing all 15 games at Madison Square Garden.

Most of you reading this today are wondering what our schedule will be for the NCAA Tournament.  Usually, today is the day we release our annual Bracketnomics report showing what back-tested data has been successful in isolating past NCAA Tournament winners.

The PiRates have made some sweeping changes this year, as advanced metrics have made our past bracket-picking criteria somewhat obsolete.  We still have our exceptional R+T weighted rating, and it still represents a huge chunk of what works for us, but we have dropped a lot of the other former data.  With advanced metrics like true shooting% and a better way to compare teams based on strength of schedule, we will be releasing an all-inclusive, somewhat explanatory reveal Tuesday afternoon.

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March 10, 2018

PiRate Ratings Conference Tournament Update–March 10 , 2018

Today’s PiRate Rating Spreads For Conference Tournament Games

Higher Seed Lower Seed Spread
Vermont UMBC 12.4
Cincinnati Memphis 17.5
Wichita St. Houston 0.1
Rhode Island St. Joseph’s 6.7
St. Bonaventure Davidson -0.9
Virginia North Carolina 1.0
Kansas West Virginia 0.1
Villanova Providence 13.7
Montana Eastern Washington 4.2
UC-Irvine Cal. St. Fullerton 2.0
Western Kentucky Marshall 5.1
Harvard Cornell 6.6
Penn Yale 6.9
Buffalo Toledo 3.9
Hampton UNC-Central 3.8
New Mexico San Diego St. -4.9
Arizona USC 1.9
Kentucky Alabama 3.0
Tennessee Arkansas 3.0
SE Louisiana Stephen F. Austin -5.6
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Texas Southern -5.2
UL-Lafayette Texas-Arlington 5.8
Georgia St. Georgia Southern 3.1
New Mexico St. Grand Canyon 4.9

Games in Blue are Semifinal Contests

Games in Red are Championship Games

Today’s Schedules With Approximate Tip Times and TV

All Times are Eastern Standard (Remember Daylight Savings Time Begins Sunday at 2 AM)

America East Conference Tournament
Championship–March 10
Time Home Visitors TV
11:00 AM #1 Vermont #2 UMBC ESPN2

Vermont is the home team in this tournament played on campus sites.  Because the rounds are spaced out, both teams had ample time to prepare for this game.  The Catamounts won handily in the two regularly-scheduled games.

UMBC’s only hope is to try to contain Vermont’s dominating power forward Payton Henson and be able to hit a lot of contested shots.  In the two previous games, Vermont held the Retrievers to well under 40% from the field.

Henson, the former Tulane bench warmer who became a star when he transferred to Vermont, controlled the boards in both games and led Vermont in scoring both times.

 

American Athletic Conference Tournament
Semifinals–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
1:00 PM #1 Cincinnati #5 Memphis CBS
3:30 PM #2 Wichita St. #3 Houston CBS
       
Championship–March 11
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
3:00 PM Cinti or Memphis Wichita or Houston CBS

Tubby Smith lives to see another day as head coach of Memphis.  Two nail-biting wins into the tournament, Memphis finds itself taking on the top seed for a chance to play for an automatic bid and steal a bid for the AAC.

Memphis failed to tally 50 points in either meeting with the Bearcats, and neither game was close.  If Cincinnati does not come out flat, and it is hard to imagine a team that hustles like the Bearcats coming out flat, there is little chance the Tigers will pull the upset.

The other semifinal game should be very interesting, and there is a possibility that this game could come down to the 40th, or maybe the 45th minute before a winner is assured.  Houston’s defense has been improving all year long, while Wichita State’s defense is still somewhat of a work in progress.  The Cougars have not been this good in 25 years, and they look poised to make another step forward, maybe even to the Sweet 16.

 

Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament
Semifinals–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
1:00 PM #1 Rhode Island #4 St. Joseph’s CBSSN
3:30 PM #2 St. Bonaventure #3 Davidson CBSSN
       
Championship–March 11
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
1:00 PM Rhode Island or St. Joe’s St. Bona. or Davidson CBS

The two lower seeded teams move into serious bid-stealer territory.  Of the two, we believe Davidson has a rather good chance of pulling off back-to-back upsets of the top two seeds and steal a bid from a Louisville, Oklahoma, or Arizona St.

When Davidson ventured up to Olean, NY, to face St.  Bonaventure less than two weeks ago, it produced one of the most exciting games of the NCAA season.  The Bonnies eventually won in triple overtime 117-113, and the stat sheet was a masterpiece.  Three St. Bonaventure players topped 30 points, combining for 14 made three-pointers, while Davidson’s Peyton Aldridge had 45 points, and Kellian Grady had 39.  Today’s game may be decided by the three-point shot.  Both teams are strong defensively inside the paint.

Rhode Island is the class of this league, but the Rams are beatable, and St. Joe’s knows how to beat them.  How about a 30-point pasting by the Hawks over the Rams in Kingstown?  If they could win at URI, then St. Joe’s should surely be able to win on a neutral court in the nation’s capital.  Something tells us that Rhode Island will play with multiple chips on multiple shoulders today and get revenge.

 

Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
8:30 PM #1 Virginia #6 North Carolina ESPN

There seldom is need to give a lot of PR to the ACC Tournament.  The ACC Tournament is like football’s Rose Bowl.  It is the grandaddy of conference tournaments (aplogies to the Southern Conference Tournament, but the ACC is a bit more prestigious).

This should be a fantastic game tonight.  North Carolina didn’t fare all that well against the top-seeded and nationally top-ranked team this year.  The Tar Heels thought they had the Cavaliers Pack-line defense figured out in the first half, and it looked like this game would go down to the buzzer.  Then, a couple of fine-tuning adjustments totally stopped North Carolina for about 10 minutes, while Virginia’s offense slowly extended the lead out to double-digits.  The Tar Heels missed all of their shots in the second half of the second half.  UVa won by a dozen points, holding UNC under 50.

The mandatory statement that North Carolina is a much better team since that loss is required to be inserted here.  However, equal time forces us to state additionally that Virginia’s offense has improved almost as much in that time frame.

In other words, this game has the potential to be rivoting entertainment for you.  We expect the score to be around 60-60 with three minutes to play.  Then, who knows what might happen.  Past ACC Tournament history could help us predict something well worth watching.  We are excited about this game just writing these words!

 

Big 12 Conference Tournament
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM #1 Kansas #3 West Virginia ESPN

Do we even need to hype this game?  In our opinion, the rivalry between KU and WVU is approaching that of the Yankees and Red Sox.  The contrast in styles between two A-1 coaches, and the talent level on the floor tonight will make this a game full of movement and spurts.  Kansas handled the Mountaineers press rather easily in both games, and WVU did not get many transition points.  In a half-court game, the Jayhawks are about 10 points better than the Mountaineers, so the question is, can Coach Bob Huggins find a new wrinkle that will force Kansas to commit an extra five turnovers tonight?  If so, then this game is a toss-up.  If not, then the Jayhawks cut down the nets yet again.

 

Big East Conference Tournament
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:30 PM #2 Villanova #5 Providence Fox

Usually, there is a tendency for the average generic sports fan to develop a temporary rooting interest for one generic team against another generic team–a game in which he or she has no ties to either team.  When a fan in Florida watches Oregon play USC, he or she might temporarily become a fan of one of the schools.  For instance, a typical guy in Orlando might cheer for USC solely because Trojan coach Andy Enfield married a former supermodel.

If you are one of the generic superfans, like all of us here on the PiRate ship, you are in a quandary tonight with these two teams.  Why is that?  It is because Villanova coach Jay Wright and Providence coach Ed Cooley are two of the best gentlemen in the game.  They are more than coaches to their players; they are second fathers, the type that dote over their children.

As for the game tonight, Villanova better not feel any overconfidence, because Providence has put all of its pieces together and has seen the finished puzzle of success.  The Friars are possibly still sitting on their best game of the season, and for that reason, we believe that at the least, Providence will cover in this game, and quite possibly win outright.  However, and this is a big however, the Friars have had to go to overtime the last two nights to get to this point.  Their legs may be a tad fatigued in the second half, while Villanova has won by comfortable margins and has rested their starters.  So, for that reason, the rest of the PiRates say the Wildcats are going to come out and be a bit too much for the underdog Friars.

What does this tell you?  Lay off this game if you like to invest in college basketball and just watch it for fun.

 

Big Sky Conference Tournament
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
8:00 PM #1 Montana #3 Eastern Washington ESPNU

This is one of those tricky games.  Montana would appear to be the favorite, but in our opinion, the Grizzlies will have to play at the top of their talent level tonight to have a chance to win this game.  EWU lost a game at Idaho in early February that they should have won.  Since then, they have played like the king of the league, reeling off eight victories in a row by an average margin of more than 10 points per game.  The Eagles roster is a United Nations of basketball with players from Australia, Serbia, Lithuania, The Ukraine, and the Dominican Republic on the roster.

Montana has the best guard duo in the league, and in tournament play, strong guards lead to championships as long as there is adequate support in the front-court players, just enough to force defenses to stay honest.  Montana’s hopes for the NCAA Tournament rest on the shoulders of Ahmaad Rorie and Michael Oguine.  They were a combined 8 of 21 in the regular season loss to EWU.  Expect a 70-75 possession game tonight, and we believe Eastern Washington will send Montana to an automatic NIT berth.

 

Big West Conference Tournament
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
11:59 PM #3 UC-Irvine #4 Cal St. Fullerton ESPN2

What did we tell you about this league?  The top four seeds were basically dead even in talent, and we believed that any of the four could advance and win the dancing invitation.  So, what happened late last night?  The two lower seeds advanced to the championship game.

If you live on the East Coast, you better get the coffee pot brewing after supper tonight if you want to see the last automatic bid of the day be handed out.  Tonight’s game is a great contrast in playing styles.  UC-Irvine wins by playing tough defense and controlling the boards, while Fullerton has a great passing offense that leads to taking open shots and not rushing the offense.

The two teams split the season series with both winning on the other team’s home floor.  This looks like a game where one team will jump for joy in the final few seconds of a closely contested game.  You may have to stay awake until after 2 AM on the East Coast if you want to know who got the bid.

 

Conference USA Tournament
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
8:30 PM #3 Western Kentucky #4 Marshall CBSSN

If you don’t have a dog left in the fight today, and you just want to watch a potentially incredible game in the evening, you might want to tune into this one.  All we have to say about Marshall is mention the coach’s name.  He is Dan D’Antoni, the brother of Houston Rocket coach Mike D’Antoni.  Houston is 51-14 in the NBA using the same type of playing style that Marshall uses.  The D’Antoni brothers are the Billy Beane’s of basketball.  They are high on analytics, and they believe that the offense has the best chance of scoring quickly before the defense can force a bad shot as the clock winds down.  It’s all about three-pointers and high percentage two-point shots, and the belief is that if your guards get the ball up the floor quickly, an open opportunity will develop in one of those two locations.

Of course, this works a lot better when one of your guards is James Harden.  Marshall has two guards that play at the collegiate level like Harden does in the NBA.  Jon Elmore and C.J. Burks can fill it up, and they both average in excess of 20 points per game.  Keeping defenses honest, the Thundering Herd have Ajdin Penava inside, but the offense itself creates close open shots for a host of average players, and any average player at this level can hit from three feet away.

What about Western Kentucky?  The Hilltoppers are notorious for playing their best ball in March.  This goes back for decades and decades through a who’ who of great coaches and players.  WKU is much like their big brother up in Lexington.  They go into tournament championship games with the prestige of the New York Yankees.  They expect to win, but they do not consider it a foregone conclusion, and the red uniform makes them put out an effort like every player is Enos Slaughter.  Both the good news and the not-so-good news about WKU is that they are a very balanced team with any of the five starters capable of scoring 20-25 points in a game.  However, sometimes, none of the five will take over and will the team to a victory.

Western swept the season series with Marshall, but we do not particularly love the Hilltoppers chance to get a three-peat in today’s championship game.  Marshall will come out loose and ready to play 75-possession basketball.  Western better be ready and not only come expecting to play 65-possession basketball.

 

Ivy League Tournament
Philadelphia (Ivy Madness)
Top 4 Teams Qualify
Semifinals EST Championship Game EDT
       
Semifinals–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:30 PM #1 Harvard #4 Cornell ESPNU
3:00 PM #2 Penn #3 Yale ESPN2
       
Championship–March 11
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
9:00 PM  Harvard or Cornell Penn or Yale  ESPN2

The final conference tournament begins play today.  The Ivy League only sends its top four to the Palestra, so in theory the winner should usually be able to avoid a trip to Dayton.  If Penn or Harvard win Ivy Madness, they should be 16-seeds but avoid Dayton.  If Cornell wins, they are almost assuredly headed to Dayton, and if Yale wins, it would be a 50-50 guess.

Penn has the advantage of playing on their home floor, and the Quakers went 7-0 at home in Ivy League play.  Their two conference losses came at Harvard and at Yale, so the championship game should provide a bit of excitement.  Of course, Penn has to get past a Cornell team that gave the Quakers two close games in the regular season.

 

Mid-American Conference Tournament
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM #1 Buffalo #2 Toledo ESPN2

The top two seeds found their way to the championship game, and we are returning to becoming confident in the Bulls.  Buffalo has the talent that if they can play with confidence and not become deer in the headlights, they could sneak past an opening round favorite in the NCAA Tournament.  We do not believe Toledo can do the same, but in the conference tournament, the Rockets could easily blast their way to victory.

These two teams played only once in the regular season, and it seems like it was a year ago.  Buffalo won on their home floor in an offensive shootout 104-94.  The difference in the game was the Buffalo ball-hawking defense.  The Bulls gave up a few easy baskets when their gambling defense did not force a turnover, but they forced Toledo into numerous turnovers that led to easy Buffalo scores.

This won’ be an 81-possession game like the first time, and if Toledo can take care of the basketball, they have the backcourt advantage with a couple of tall, sharp-shooting perimeter players in Tre’Shaun Fletcher and Jaelen Sanford.

If Buffalo is to hold serve and claim both the regular season and conference tournament titles, we believe that forward Nick Perkins needs to have a 20-point, 8-rebound game, and the Bulls need to force the tempo and not let Toledo slow the game down.

 

Mideastern Athletic Conference Tournament
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
1:00 PM #1 Hampton #6 UNC-Central ESPN2

Two teams with recent success in the MEAC will face off for the automatic bid.  Hampton has won the tournament title three of the last seven seasons under Coach Edward Joyner, while UNC-Central has claimed two of the last four under Coach LeVelle Moton.

Once again, this game presents an excellent study in different styles of play.  Hampton is more of a finesse team with better shooters, while UNC-Central has the superior power game and can control the action inside.  Finesse won out in the lone regular season game between the two teams, as Hampton shot lights out in a blowout win.

 

Mountain West Conference Tournament
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM #3 New Mexico #5 San Diego St. CBS

The two defensive behemoths easily advanced to the championship game, giving the Mountain West a second bid that came at the expense of a Louisville, Notre Dame, or Arizona St.

Either of these two teams will become a fierce, pesty opponent to a favored team in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament.  New Mexico faced a major transition this year.  They raided in-state rival New Mexico State to hire Coach Paul Weir away from las Cruces.  Weir brought his tenacious, full-court press defense to Albuquerque, and the Lobos had growing pains for the first half of the season.

Since a rough start at 8-11, the Lobos improved by going 11-3 since mid-January.  The press began to pay dividends as the players obtained the needed live experience to see it work.  A much-improved up-tempo offense took off about the same time, as the Lobos gained confidence and went from a passive to a very aggressive team.

San Diego State basketball is all about outstanding pressure man-to-man defense and an inside power offense.  It’s much like the same offense that Aztec coach Steve Fisher used with the Fabulous Five at Michigan in the 1990’s.  Like New Mexico, SDSU had a slow start to the season, but they closed in a rush with eight consecutive wins by an average score of 78-64.  What they did to regular season champ Nevada last night should put a scare into any potential four or five seed team from a power conference.  The Aztecs looked like the UCLA team of 1970 in the semifinal trouncing of Nevada.  They controlled the boards like they had Sydney Wicks, Steve Patterson, and Curtis Rowe pounding the glass, as the former top team in the league trailed by 30 points in the first half!

Don’t expect New Mexico to be intimidated.  This game is going to be rough and tumble for 40 minutes, and if we had to pick one game where the referees may have to step in and separate the combatants in this war, this would be the game.

 

Pacific 12 Conference Tournament
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
10:00 PM #1 Arizona #2 USC FS1

Usually, the Pac-12 Tournament Championship Game is the key college basketball game on the West Coast, but it won’t even be the best game in the host city.  It won’t even be the second best game in that city.  Las Vegas hosts both the Mountain West and Western Athletic championships tonight, and unfortunately for the “League of Champions,” this will be the third best game in sin city tonight.

The outcome of the game will matter very little, as both teams have now secured spots in the field of 68, and neither will move much by winning or losing.  We do not particularly feel like either the Wildcats or Trojans will make much of a dent in the NCAA Tournament, as the Pac-12 needs a transfusion, with an infusion of better talent.  Sorry Pac-12 fans, but your league is suffering somewhat of a malaise.

 

Southeastern Conference Tournament
Semifinals–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
1:00 PM #4 Kentucky #9 Alabama ESPN
3:30 PM #2 Tennessee #6 Arkansas ESPN
       
Championship–March 4
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
1:00 PM Kentucky or Alabama Tennessee or Arkansas ESPN

Once Missouri fell, we called this tournament the Kentucky Invitational, as that is what we knew it would look like once the Blue Mist fans bought up all the Mizzou fans tickets.

Arkansas bested Florida, and that made Kentucky’s path to the title all that easier.  Today the Wildcats basically need to put an extra half-body on Colin Sexton and then control the boards like they should to advance to the title game tomorrow for the umpteenth time in their history.

The other game should be much more interesting, as Arkansas and Tennessee match up evenly well.  Arkansas won the regular season game in Fayetteville 95-93 in overtime in a game before New Year’s Day.  The Razorbacks then went 9-8 the rest of the regular season, while the Vols went on to share the conference title with Auburn.

This tournament is screaming for a game between bitter rivals in blue and orange.  Tennessee has always been the principle rival for Kentucky in all sports, while Tennessee considers Kentucky its chief basketball rival.

 

Southland Conference Tournament
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
10:00 PM #1 SE Louisiana #3 Stephen F. Austin ESPN2

We hope you read our preview of this conference tournament the last two days.  If not, we referred to #3 Stephen F. Austin as the champion thoroughbred horse that stumbled and lost the 2017 race but still figured to be the great champion of the past, while Southeast Louisiana and Nicholls State were the two currently sexy horses vying for the finish line.

The crowd at the race track watches the two new hot contenders sharing a four furlong lead over the champion horse, and all in attendance feverishly focus their eyes on the champion waiting for him to make that patented closing move to win the race from three-wide.

Last night, Stephen F. Austin began to move, and when they did, they looked like Whirlaway at the Kentucky Derby.  The Lumberjacks just ran past Nicholls State, putting the game away handily in the first half.  Now, they have Southeast Louisiana in their sights, and the Lions better be ready to roar in the Championship Game, because SFA doesn’t look to be losing any speed at the finish line.

 

Southwestern Athletic Conference Tournament
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
4:00 PM #1 Arkansas-Pine Bluff #3 Texas Southern ESPN2

Our heart says Texas Southern tonight, because our leader has a past friendly relationship with TSU coach Mike Davis, but our brain says that Arkansas-Pine Bluff will become the first team ever to begin a season 0-14 and make the NCAA Tournament.

These two teams could play 100 times, and we would pick UAPB to win about 55-60 of those games.  The Golden Lions won two very close games over the Tigers in the regular season, and they seem to have their number.

The winner of this game is already put in the First Four in Dayton in permanent marker.  There is no need to pencil the winner this year.  Either a 19-loss or 20-loss team will earn an automatic bid.

 

Sun Belt Conference Tournament
Semifinals–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:30 PM #1 UL-Lafayette #4 UT-Arlington ESPN3
3:00 PM #2 Georgia St. #3 Georgia Southern ESPN3
       
Championship–March 11
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
2:00 PM ULL or UTA Ga St. or Ga. Sou. ESPN2

Louisiana-Lafayette may be the overwhelming favorite to win the tournament with a coach (Bob Marlin) that has taken the Ragin’ Cajuns and formerly Sam Houston to the NCAA Tournament, but Georgia State also has the tournament experience coach on their sideline, as Ron Hunter has taken GSU and IUPUI to the Dance in the past.

What does this mean for UT-Arlington and Georgia Southern?    Ten years ago, Scott Cross guided UTA to a conference tournament title, while Georgia Southern coach Mark Byington has been slowly upgrading the program at Hanner Fieldhouse.

Don’t expect the two favorite to easily coast to the finals tomorrow, but the chances are better than 50-50 that both teams win tonight.

 

Western Athletic Conference Tournament
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
10:00 PM #1 New Mexico St. #3 Grand Canyon ESPNU

There’s nothing more to say about this tournament than what we previously stated.  This just might be the best Championship Game of the entire lot this weekend.  New Mexico State has been tournament savvy since November, when the Aggies beat Davidson and Miami (Fla.) in Hawaii and almost knocked off USC for the championship.  After NMSU completed the regular season sweep of GCU, their record stood at 22-3, and the Aggies were on the verge of cracking the top 25.  But, playing an overly physical team like GCU can take its toll, and NMSU suffered by losing consecutive road games against the other top two teams of the four in this league.  The team recovered and since then has won five games in a row by an average of 16.8 points per game.

Grand Canyon has made great strides moving into Division 1.  The only for-profit university playing Division 1 basketball, the Antelopes have a student base from all over the country, as they have both a real campus and an online presence.  Of course, John Doe, a GCU online-only student in Augusta, Maine, is not eligible to play on the team, but his tuition might help the school fund the athletic program a little bit.  This could be the start of something big if the Antelopes make the Dance.  Imagine the University of Phoenix or Devry University trying this out.   And, what happens when Penn State or Alabama discover that they must begin to have an online university in addition to a real campus?  The NCAA might have to eventually establish some ground rules, when Dunkin’ Bill Duncan and Henry Hoopshot decide to attend classes at home but play on the basketball team, because they both live just 10 miles away.  Who will really be doing the homework???

 

 

 

February 23, 2018

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview for February 23-25, 2018

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:36 am

Note: In case you haven’t heard, Yahoo Sports has released information concerning the FBI’s probe of college basketball, naming names and teams.  Go to Yahoo Sports to read the article.

The article casts a shadow over the impending March Madness and whether players and even teams may be declared ineligible or run the risk of having the entire Final Four vacated if four implicated teams make the semifinals.

Until there is definite news on who will and will not be allowed to participate in the NCAA Tournament, the PiRate Ratings will continue to rate the teams as if nothing has affected the tournament.  Our Bracket Gurus report that runs on Monday afternoons will continue to include all teams that are eligible of this moment.  Our ratings will remain the same until players are removed from rosters.

 

In the PiRate Rating’s world, we have made a bit of a change this week.  The Mountain West Conference has reverted back to a one bid league for now as Boise State has fallen back in the Bubble race.  At the same time, St. Bonaventure has now moved into the projected field, giving the Atlantic 10 Conference multiple projected bids.  Thus, we have added the A-10 to our ratings list of power conferences and removed the MWC and returned it to mid-major.

We have retained Nevada and Boise State in the ratings of top mid-majors.

Also note that the first postseason conference tournament bracket has been decided.  The Atlantic Sun Conference begins tournament action Monday night, and you can see the bracket for this game at the conclusion of the spreads and ratings.

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads for Power Conferences and top Mid-Majors

Friday’s Games    
Home Team Visitor Spread
Rhode Island Dayton 13.8
Indiana Ohio St. 3.0
Saturday’s Games    
Home Team Visitor Spread
South Florida Tulane -6.5
SMU Wichita St. -3.7
VCU St. Bonaventure -2.6
Duquesne Davidson -7.1
Fordham LaSalle -3.8
George Mason Massachusetts 2.0
Richmond St. Joseph’s -0.3
St. Louis George Washington 6.8
Virginia Tech Louisville 3.8
Miami (Fla.) Boston College 8.8
Clemson Georgia Tech 14.2
Wake Forest Notre Dame -2.8
Pittsburgh Virginia -21.1
Duke Syracuse 15.8
TCU Baylor 4.8
Texas Oklahoma St. 6.3
Texas Tech Kansas 2.1
West Virginia Iowa St. 14.9
Oklahoma Kansas St. 4.9
DePaul Marquette -3.2
Georgetown Providence 1.2
St. John’s Seton Hall -1.4
Creighton Villanova -6.0
Maryland Michigan 1.7
Utah USC 1.9
California Washington -5.2
Stanford Washington St. 10.6
Oregon St. Arizona St. -4.2
Oregon Arizona -1.5
Ole Miss Tennessee -5.8
Georgia LSU 2.2
Mississippi St. South Carolina 6.4
Vanderbilt Texas A&M -1.9
Alabama Arkansas 2.4
Kentucky Missouri 5.3
Florida Auburn 0.1
Loyola Marymount Pacific -1.4
Saint Mary’s Santa Clara 21.6
BYU Gonzaga -5.0
Pepperdine Portland 1.1
San Francisco San Diego 2.3
Austin Peay Murray St. -6.0
Buffalo Ohio 11.3
East Tennessee St. Wofford 9.3
Loyola (Chi.) Illinois St. 11.7
Middle Tennessee UAB 9.6
New Mexico St. UMKC 17.0
South Alabama Louisiana-Lafayette -9.6
Stony Brook Vermont -9.5
Sunday’s Games    
Home Team Visitor Spread
Cincinnati Tulsa 19.1
Temple Central Florida 4.7
Houston East Carolina 23.8
Connecticut Memphis 2.0
North Carolina St. Florida St. 0.5
Wisconsin Michigan St. -9.5
Rutgers Illinois -0.1
Purdue Minnesota 18.5
Nebraska Penn St. -0.2
Iowa Northwestern 1.6
Nevada Colorado St. 20.6
Colorado UCLA -3.2

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Top 25

Rank Team PiRate Conf.
1 Villanova 121.7 BIGE
2 Duke 120.5 ACC
3 Purdue 119.6 BTEN
4 Virginia 119.4 ACC
5 Michigan St. 119.4 BTEN
6 Cincinnati 118.0 AAC
7 North Carolina 116.7 ACC
8 Kansas 116.7 B12
9 West Virginia 115.8 B12
10 Gonzaga 115.4 WCC
11 Texas Tech 115.3 B12
12 Xavier 115.1 BIGE
13 Auburn 115.1 SEC
14 Wichita St. 114.7 AAC
15 Tennessee 113.6 SEC
16 Ohio St. 113.5 BTEN
17 TCU 112.9 B12
18 Clemson 112.9 ACC
19 Butler 112.8 BIGE
20 Arizona 112.8 PAC12
21 Michigan 112.7 BTEN
22 Creighton 112.2 BIGE
23 Kentucky 112.2 SEC
24 Nevada 112.1 MWC
25 Florida St. 112.0 ACC

PiRate Ratings By Power Conference

Team PiRate Conf.
Rhode Island 111.1 A10
Davidson 108.6 A10
St. Bonaventure 107.4 A10
VCU 101.3 A10
St. Louis 100.8 A10
Dayton 100.8 A10
St. Joseph’s 100.5 A10
LaSalle 99.8 A10
Duquesne 98.0 A10
George Washington 97.5 A10
Massachusetts 97.3 A10
Richmond 97.2 A10
George Mason 96.3 A10
Fordham 93.0 A10
Cincinnati 118.0 AAC
Wichita St. 114.7 AAC
Houston 111.8 AAC
SMU 107.5 AAC
Temple 105.4 AAC
UCF 104.2 AAC
Tulsa 102.4 AAC
Memphis 100.3 AAC
Tulane 99.5 AAC
Connecticut 99.3 AAC
East Carolina 91.5 AAC
South Florida 90.0 AAC
Duke 120.5 ACC
Virginia 119.4 ACC
North Carolina 116.7 ACC
Clemson 112.9 ACC
Florida St. 112.0 ACC
Virginia Tech 111.4 ACC
Notre Dame 111.1 ACC
Louisville 111.1 ACC
Miami FL 110.8 ACC
North Carolina St. 109.0 ACC
Syracuse 108.7 ACC
Boston College 105.5 ACC
Wake Forest 105.3 ACC
Georgia Tech 102.2 ACC
Pittsburgh 95.3 ACC
Kansas 116.7 B12
West Virginia 115.8 B12
Texas Tech 115.3 B12
TCU 112.9 B12
Baylor 111.1 B12
Oklahoma 111.0 B12
Texas 110.3 B12
Kansas St. 109.6 B12
Oklahoma St. 107.5 B12
Iowa St. 104.9 B12
Villanova 121.7 BIGE
Xavier 115.1 BIGE
Butler 112.8 BIGE
Creighton 112.2 BIGE
Seton Hall 111.3 BIGE
Marquette 109.6 BIGE
Providence 106.9 BIGE
St. John’s 106.9 BIGE
Georgetown 104.6 BIGE
DePaul 103.4 BIGE
Purdue 119.6 BTEN
Michigan St. 119.4 BTEN
Ohio St. 113.5 BTEN
Michigan 112.7 BTEN
Penn St. 111.5 BTEN
Maryland 110.9 BTEN
Nebraska 107.8 BTEN
Indiana 107.0 BTEN
Wisconsin 106.4 BTEN
Northwestern 106.4 BTEN
Iowa 105.0 BTEN
Minnesota 104.6 BTEN
Illinois 104.4 BTEN
Rutgers 101.3 BTEN
Arizona 112.8 PAC12
Arizona St. 110.7 PAC12
USC 109.4 PAC12
UCLA 108.7 PAC12
Oregon 107.8 PAC12
Utah 107.8 PAC12
Stanford 104.4 PAC12
Washington 103.5 PAC12
Oregon St. 103.0 PAC12
Colorado 102.0 PAC12
Washington St. 97.3 PAC12
California 94.8 PAC12
Auburn 115.1 SEC
Tennessee 113.6 SEC
Kentucky 112.2 SEC
Florida 111.7 SEC
Texas A&M 111.2 SEC
Arkansas 111.0 SEC
Missouri 110.4 SEC
Alabama 109.9 SEC
Mississippi St. 108.8 SEC
LSU 107.8 SEC
Georgia 106.5 SEC
South Carolina 105.9 SEC
Vanderbilt 105.8 SEC
Mississippi 104.8 SEC
Gonzaga 115.4 WCC
Saint Mary’s 111.5 WCC
BYU 106.4 WCC
San Diego 101.0 WCC
San Francisco 100.3 WCC
Pacific 98.6 WCC
Loyola Marymount 94.2 WCC
Santa Clara 92.9 WCC
Portland 92.9 WCC
Pepperdine 91.0 WCC

PiRate Ratings For Key Mid-Majors

Nevada 112.1 MWC
Boise St. 108.8 MWC
Middle Tennessee 108.6 CUSA
Louisiana Lafayette 108.5 SBC
Loyola (Chi.) 108.3 MVC
Western Kentucky 107.3 CUSA
New Mexico St. 107.2 WAC
Murray St. 106.4 OVC

Conference Tournament Bracket

Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament
All Games Played at Higher Seed
All Times EST
       
Quarterfinals–February 26
Time Home Visitors TV
7:00 PM #1 Florida Gulf Coast #8 USC Upstate ESPN3
7:30 PM #4 NJIT #5 North Florida ESPN3
8:00 PM #2 Lipscomb #7 Stetson ESPN3
7:00 PM #3 Jacksonville #6 Kennesaw St. ESPN3
       
Semifinals–March 1
Time Home Visitors TV
TBA FGCU/USCU NJIT/N.Fla. ESPN3
TBA Lipsc./Stetson Jville/Kenn ESPN3
       
Championship–March 4
Time Home Visitors TV
3:00 PM Higher Remaining Seed Lower Remaining Seed ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 30, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for December 1-2, 2017 (with 10-point teasers)

For those of you still following this weekly feature, we’ll buy and read your book you will write dealing with masochism.  This has been a lousy year for the PiRate Picks.  This week, there are not enough college games to put together many Money Line parlays, so we are dusting off and bringing out of mothballs our former claim to fame to give us 4 plays–10-point teasers.

For those of you who are not wise to a 10-point teaser, this type of play allows the player to move the point spread or totals number by 10 points in either direction and then play a parlay at certain odds.  We like to combine either 3 teams at -110 or 4 teams at +136 odds, and this week, we have two 4-game parlays at +136.

Thus, a winning week can be had with a 2-2 record, and at 3-1, it can be a very profitable week.  At 4-0, we get out of the red and into the black.  At 1-3 or 0-4, we take more Maalox.

Remember this most important aspect to this weekly feature–all our picks are just for fun, and we never wager real coin or currency or Bitcoins on these picks. We suggest you do the same as well.

#1 @ +273  
Must Win Must Lose
USC Stanford
New Mexico St. South Alabama
Clemson Miami
Oklahoma TCU

 

#2 @ +230  
Must Win Must Lose
Wisconsin Ohio St.

 

#3 10-point teaser +136  
Clemson Miami Under 57
Wisconsin Ohio St. Under 62
Florida St. UL-Monroe Under 75
Oklahoma TCU Under 73.5

 

#4 10-point teaser +136  
Stanford USC Under 69
Florida Atlantic North Texas Under 84
Central Florida Memphis Under 92
Auburn Georgia Under 58

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 19, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for November 21-25, 2017

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 1:54 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Akron Kent St. 16.2 16.9 16.6
Eastern Michigan Bowling Green 17.7 16.8 17.7
Ball St. Miami (O) -20.5 -20.5 -21.0
Mississippi St. Ole Miss 11.6 12.9 12.7
TCU Baylor 24.2 21.2 24.4
Toledo Western Michigan 7.5 8.1 8.3
Virginia Virginia Tech -13.7 -14.2 -13.2
Central Michigan Northern Illinois 1.1 1.8 0.8
Buffalo Ohio U -9.4 -8.6 -8.4
Arkansas Missouri -7.9 -6.6 -7.6
San Diego St. New Mexico 20.5 20.7 21.2
Houston Navy 4.2 3.6 3.9
Pittsburgh Miami (Fla.) -16.3 -14.9 -15.8
Nebraska Iowa -9.3 -9.1 -9.0
Troy Texas St. 24.9 23.0 25.2
Central Florida South Florida 6.8 8.8 7.8
Florida Int’l. Western Kentucky -2.7 -2.2 -2.7
Texas Texas Tech 12.5 12.7 13.8
UCLA California 1.6 3.1 2.6
Cincinnati Connecticut 2.6 2.6 3.2
Syracuse Boston College -1.6 -3.0 -2.2
Rutgers Michigan St. -8.2 -9.5 -9.5
Purdue Indiana -0.2 -0.2 -0.3
Michigan Ohio St. -13.6 -11.4 -14.8
North Carolina St. North Carolina 14.0 14.1 14.7
Wake Forest Duke 5.9 4.8 7.1
Georgia St. Appalachian St. -6.8 -5.8 -6.5
Tennessee Vanderbilt 4.4 3.6 3.9
Kansas St. Iowa St. 2.3 2.1 1.3
Kentucky Louisville -6.0 -5.9 -7.1
Georgia Tech Georgia -13.3 -15.3 -15.0
Maryland Penn St. -24.0 -21.5 -24.8
Illinois Northwestern -21.9 -20.0 -23.1
Rice North Texas -12.7 -12.6 -13.2
Charlotte Florida Atlantic -27.1 -26.5 -28.5
Air Force Utah St. -0.3 0.9 -0.3
Marshall Southern Miss. 8.0 8.3 9.2
Nevada UNLV 3.8 4.0 4.7
Washington Washington St. 11.8 11.8 12.1
San Jose St. Wyoming -26.8 -25.4 -27.0
Utah Colorado 2.7 4.6 4.7
Louisiana-Monroe Arkansas St. -8.3 -8.7 -10.3
Middle Tennessee Old Dominion 6.9 5.8 7.7
Minnesota Wisconsin -19.4 -16.0 -19.2
Stanford Notre Dame 5.3 4.8 4.3
South Carolina Clemson -18.2 -16.7 -18.4
LSU Texas A&M 11.2 11.1 12.2
Fresno St. Boise St. -8.2 -7.7 -8.0
SMU Tulane 6.9 7.1 6.8
Oklahoma St. Kansas 41.7 37.8 43.5
Arizona St. Arizona 0.6 1.2 1.3
Oklahoma West Virginia 18.4 16.8 19.0
Oregon Oregon St. 16.6 14.9 17.3
New Mexico St. Idaho 9.9 7.5 9.1
Louisiana-Lafayette Georgia Southern 8.3 7.9 9.0
Tulsa Temple 5.1 3.9 4.7
Louisiana Tech UTSA -0.2 -0.5 -0.5
Memphis East Carolina 27.0 24.9 27.7
UAB UTEP 16.1 13.1 17.8
Auburn Alabama -7.3 -5.9 -6.0
Florida Florida St. -8.9 -8.4 -7.9
Hawaii BYU -3.4 -2.2 -3.6

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Retro Rankings

Based on what the teams have done for the entire season and not forward looking

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Miami (Fla)
3 Clemson
4 Wisconsin
5 Oklahoma
6 Georgia
7 Ohio St.
8 Central Florida
9 Notre Dame
10 Penn St.
11 Auburn
12 USC
13 TCU
14 Washington
15 Mississippi St.
16 Virginia Tech
17 Washington St.
18 Michigan
19 Oklahoma St.
20 Memphis
21 Michigan St.
22 Stanford
23 Northwestern
24 North Carolina St.
25 Boise St.
26 LSU
27 Wake Forest
28 Iowa St.
29 Iowa
30 South Florida
31 South Carolina
32 Boston College
33 Texas A&M
34 Louisville
35 Toledo
36 San Diego St.
37 Texas
38 Florida Atlantic
39 Oregon
40 Georgia Tech
41 West Virginia
42 Arizona
43 Navy
44 Florida St.
45 Arizona St.
46 Purdue
47 Kentucky
48 Northern Illinois
49 Missouri
50 Fresno St.
51 Kansas St.
52 Indiana
53 UCLA
54 Troy
55 Houston
56 Army
57 Ohio
58 Texas Tech
59 Virginia
60 SMU
61 Utah
62 California
63 North Texas
64 Duke
65 Florida
66 Wyoming
67 Syracuse
68 Maryland
69 Minnesota
70 Marshall
71 Ole Miss
72 Colorado
73 Western Michigan
74 Nebraska
75 Colorado St.
76 Central Michigan
77 Tulane
78 Pittsburgh
79 Utah St.
80 Arkansas St.
81 Temple
82 Tennessee
83 Akron
84 Arkansas
85 Southern Miss.
86 Florida Int’l.
87 Appalachian St.
88 North Carolina
89 Rutgers
90 UAB
91 Vanderbilt
92 UTSA
93 Georgia St.
94 Eastern Michigan
95 Buffalo
96 Air Force
97 Western Kentucky
98 Louisiana Tech
99 Middle Tennessee
100 Miami (O)
101 UNLV
102 Tulsa
103 Cincinnati
104 Connecticut
105 East Carolina
106 Massachusetts
107 Old Dominion
108 UL-Monroe
109 UL-Lafayette
110 New Mexico St.
111 Baylor
112 South Alabama
113 Illinois
114 BYU
115 Nevada
116 New Mexico
117 Idaho
118 Oregon St.
119 Bowling Green
120 Hawaii
121 Kent St.
122 Kansas
123 Coastal Carolina
124 Georgia Southern
125 Ball St.
126 Rice
127 Charlotte
128 Texas St.
129 San Jose St.
130 UTEP

PiRate Ratings For This Week

Forward Looking Predictive Ratings totally unrelated to rankings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 137.9 134.3 136.7 136.3
2 Ohio St. 132.2 129.9 132.6 131.6
3 Auburn 128.5 126.4 128.8 127.9
4 Clemson 128.6 126.1 128.1 127.6
5 Georgia 126.2 126.1 126.5 126.3
6 Oklahoma 125.1 123.9 125.9 125.0
7 Penn St. 125.2 124.1 125.5 124.9
8 Miami 125.4 123.7 124.6 124.6
9 Washington 125.0 122.9 124.9 124.3
10 Wisconsin 124.2 121.7 123.1 123.0
11 Oklahoma St. 120.6 119.9 121.0 120.5
12 T C U 119.8 118.1 120.1 119.3
13 U S C 119.4 118.6 119.0 119.0
14 Stanford 119.6 118.0 118.8 118.8
15 Virginia Tech 118.8 118.2 118.6 118.5
16 L S U 117.7 115.5 118.0 117.1
17 Notre Dame 117.3 116.2 117.6 117.0
18 Florida St. 116.7 115.8 115.2 115.9
19 N. Carolina St. 115.9 115.1 115.7 115.6
20 Louisville 115.8 114.9 115.6 115.4
21 Michigan 115.6 115.5 114.8 115.3
22 Central Florida 113.8 115.0 115.1 114.6
23 Washington St. 115.2 113.0 114.8 114.3
24 Mississippi St. 114.3 114.3 114.2 114.3
25 Texas 113.9 114.0 114.6 114.2
26 Northwestern 114.0 112.9 114.0 113.6
27 Wake Forest 113.5 111.6 113.7 112.9
28 Iowa State 112.5 112.6 113.5 112.9
29 Kansas St. 111.8 111.8 111.8 111.8
30 Iowa 110.9 111.2 110.1 110.8
31 Georgia Tech 111.9 109.8 110.5 110.7
32 Memphis 110.0 109.2 110.8 110.0
33 West Virginia 109.6 110.1 109.9 109.9
34 Boston College 109.7 109.6 109.6 109.6
35 Missouri 109.7 107.8 109.1 108.9
36 South Florida 109.0 108.2 109.3 108.8
37 Texas A&M 109.5 107.4 108.8 108.6
38 Duke 109.1 108.3 108.1 108.5
39 S. Carolina 108.9 107.9 108.1 108.3
40 Oregon 108.7 106.7 108.0 107.8
41 Kentucky 108.3 107.5 107.0 107.6
42 Boise St. 107.9 106.4 108.3 107.5
43 Arizona 107.3 105.9 106.3 106.5
44 Indiana 106.3 106.3 106.8 106.5
45 Utah 106.2 106.6 106.2 106.3
46 Arizona St. 106.5 105.5 106.1 106.0
47 Florida 106.3 105.9 105.8 106.0
48 Pittsburgh 106.1 105.8 105.8 105.9
49 Michigan St. 104.9 105.8 105.9 105.5
50 Colorado 106.5 105.1 104.5 105.3
51 Purdue 104.6 104.6 105.0 104.7
52 Syracuse 105.1 103.6 104.4 104.4
53 California 105.4 103.2 103.8 104.1
54 Ole Miss 104.7 103.4 103.5 103.9
55 U C L A 104.0 103.3 103.5 103.6
56 Texas Tech 103.4 103.3 102.9 103.2
57 Virginia 103.0 102.0 103.3 102.8
58 San Diego St. 102.2 102.2 103.3 102.6
59 Toledo 101.9 101.9 103.7 102.5
60 N. Carolina 102.9 102.0 102.0 102.3
61 Houston 101.9 101.7 101.9 101.8
62 Minnesota 101.8 102.7 100.9 101.8
63 Navy 100.7 101.2 101.0 100.9
64 Colo. State 101.3 100.3 101.1 100.9
65 Florida Atlantic 99.3 101.0 101.0 100.4
66 Army 99.5 99.5 99.8 99.6
67 Tennessee 99.9 98.3 98.1 98.8
68 Ohio U 98.0 99.4 98.9 98.8
69 Wyoming 99.3 98.2 98.6 98.7
70 Nebraska 98.6 99.1 98.1 98.6
71 Baylor 98.1 99.4 98.2 98.6
72 Maryland 98.3 99.6 97.7 98.5
73 Arkansas 98.8 98.1 98.5 98.5
74 SMU 97.8 98.3 98.1 98.1
75 Vanderbilt 98.5 97.7 97.2 97.8
76 Western Michigan 97.5 96.7 98.4 97.5
77 Fresno St. 96.7 95.7 97.3 96.6
78 Northern Illinois 96.1 95.9 97.2 96.4
79 Eastern Michigan 95.7 95.8 96.1 95.9
80 Tulsa 95.9 95.4 95.7 95.7
81 Troy 95.5 95.7 95.1 95.4
82 Central Michigan 94.7 95.1 95.5 95.1
83 Arkansas St. 94.3 95.5 95.5 95.1
84 Utah St. 95.3 94.4 95.1 94.9
85 Tulane 93.9 94.1 94.3 94.1
86 Temple 93.8 94.5 94.0 94.1
87 Oregon St. 94.1 93.9 92.6 93.5
88 Rutgers 93.7 93.4 93.4 93.5
89 Appalachian St. 93.6 92.4 93.4 93.1
90 Marshall 91.7 93.0 93.3 92.7
91 Air Force 91.9 92.4 91.8 92.0
92 W. Kentucky 90.4 90.6 91.1 90.7
93 Massachusetts 90.5 89.7 90.8 90.3
94 U T S A 89.2 91.4 90.2 90.2
95 Miami (O) 88.7 90.7 89.9 89.8
96 Nevada 88.7 90.4 89.8 89.6
97 Illinois 89.5 90.5 88.5 89.5
98 BYU 89.6 89.5 89.3 89.4
99 Akron 87.9 90.0 88.6 88.8
100 N. Texas 87.5 88.8 88.4 88.2
101 Middle Tennessee 86.6 87.7 87.6 87.3
102 Southern Miss. 86.7 87.8 87.2 87.2
103 Buffalo 85.6 87.8 87.5 87.0
104 U N L V 86.4 87.8 86.5 86.9
105 Louisiana Tech 86.0 87.8 86.6 86.8
106 East Carolina 86.0 87.3 86.1 86.5
107 N. Mexico St. 85.9 84.7 86.0 85.5
108 Florida Int’l. 84.7 85.4 85.3 85.2
109 Connecticut 84.4 86.2 84.6 85.1
110 Cincinnati 84.0 85.8 84.8 84.9
111 New Mexico 84.6 84.5 85.1 84.7
112 UL-Lafayette 84.0 84.9 84.0 84.3
113 Georgia St. 84.3 84.1 84.3 84.3
114 Old Dominion 82.6 85.0 82.9 83.5
115 UL-Monroe 83.0 83.8 82.2 83.0
116 Kansas 81.8 85.1 80.5 82.5
117 Hawaii 82.2 83.3 81.7 82.4
118 UAB 81.3 81.2 83.1 81.9
119 S. Alabama 80.7 82.7 80.9 81.4
120 Bowling Green 80.5 81.6 80.8 81.0
121 Idaho 79.1 80.2 79.9 79.7
122 Georgia Southern 78.6 80.0 78.0 78.9
123 Kent St. 73.7 75.2 74.0 74.3
124 Texas St. 73.6 75.7 72.9 74.1
125 Rice 72.8 74.2 73.2 73.4
126 Coastal Carolina 72.4 73.8 73.1 73.1
127 Charlotte 69.2 71.5 69.4 70.0
128 San Jose St. 69.5 69.8 68.6 69.3
129 U T E P 68.2 71.1 68.3 69.2
130 Ball St. 65.7 67.7 66.4 66.6

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Central Florida 7-0 10-0 113.8 115.0 115.1 114.6
South Florida 6-1 9-1 109.0 108.2 109.3 108.8
Temple 3-4 5-6 93.8 94.5 94.0 94.1
East Carolina 2-5 3-8 86.0 87.3 86.1 86.5
Connecticut 2-5 3-8 84.4 86.2 84.6 85.1
Cincinnati 1-6 3-8 84.0 85.8 84.8 84.9
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 6-1 9-1 110.0 109.2 110.8 110.0
Houston 4-3 6-4 101.9 101.7 101.9 101.8
Navy 4-3 6-4 100.7 101.2 101.0 100.9
SMU 3-4 6-5 97.8 98.3 98.1 98.1
Tulsa 1-6 2-9 95.9 95.4 95.7 95.7
Tulane 3-4 5-6 93.9 94.1 94.3 94.1
             
AAC Averages     97.6 98.1 98.0 97.9
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 7-1 10-1 128.6 126.1 128.1 127.6
Florida St. 3-5 4-6 116.7 115.8 115.2 115.9
N. Carolina St. 5-2 7-4 115.9 115.1 115.7 115.6
Louisville 4-4 7-4 115.8 114.9 115.6 115.4
Wake Forest 4-3 7-4 113.5 111.6 113.7 112.9
Boston College 3-4 6-5 109.7 109.6 109.6 109.6
Syracuse 2-5 4-7 105.1 103.6 104.4 104.4
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 7-0 10-0 125.4 123.7 124.6 124.6
Virginia Tech 4-3 8-3 118.8 118.2 118.6 118.5
Georgia Tech 4-4 5-5 111.9 109.8 110.5 110.7
Duke 2-5 5-6 109.1 108.3 108.1 108.5
Pittsburgh 2-5 4-7 106.1 105.8 105.8 105.9
Virginia 3-4 6-5 103.0 102.0 103.3 102.8
N. Carolina 1-6 3-8 102.9 102.0 102.0 102.3
             
ACC Averages     113.0 111.9 112.5 112.5
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 7-1 10-1 125.1 123.9 125.9 125.0
Oklahoma St. 5-3 8-3 120.6 119.9 121.0 120.5
T C U 6-2 9-2 119.8 118.1 120.1 119.3
Texas 5-3 6-5 113.9 114.0 114.6 114.2
Iowa State 5-3 7-4 112.5 112.6 113.5 112.9
Kansas St. 4-4 6-5 111.8 111.8 111.8 111.8
West Virginia 5-3 7-4 109.6 110.1 109.9 109.9
Texas Tech 2-6 5-6 103.4 103.3 102.9 103.2
Baylor 1-7 1-10 98.1 99.4 98.2 98.6
Kansas 0-8 1-10 81.8 85.1 80.5 82.5
             
Big 12 Averages     109.7 109.8 109.9 109.8
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 7-1 9-2 132.2 129.9 132.6 131.6
Penn St. 6-2 9-2 125.2 124.1 125.5 124.9
Michigan 5-3 8-3 115.6 115.5 114.8 115.3
Indiana 2-6 5-6 106.3 106.3 106.8 106.5
Michigan St. 6-2 8-3 104.9 105.8 105.9 105.5
Maryland 2-6 4-7 98.3 99.6 97.7 98.5
Rutgers 3-5 4-7 93.7 93.4 93.4 93.5
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 8-0 11-0 124.2 121.7 123.1 123.0
Northwestern 6-2 8-3 114.0 112.9 114.0 113.6
Iowa 3-5 6-5 110.9 111.2 110.1 110.8
Purdue 3-5 5-6 104.6 104.6 105.0 104.7
Minnesota 2-6 5-6 101.8 102.7 100.9 101.8
Nebraska 3-5 4-7 98.6 99.1 98.1 98.6
Illinois 0-8 2-9 89.5 90.5 88.5 89.5
             
Big Ten Averages     108.6 108.4 108.3 108.4
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida Atlantic 7-0 8-3 99.3 101.0 101.0 100.4
Marshall 4-3 7-4 91.7 93.0 93.3 92.7
W. Kentucky 4-3 6-5 90.4 90.6 91.1 90.7
Middle Tennessee 3-4 5-6 86.6 87.7 87.6 87.3
Florida Int’l. 4-3 6-4 84.7 85.4 85.3 85.2
Old Dominion 3-4 5-6 82.6 85.0 82.9 83.5
Charlotte 1-6 1-10 69.2 71.5 69.4 70.0
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 3-4 6-4 89.2 91.4 90.2 90.2
N. Texas 6-1 8-3 87.5 88.8 88.4 88.2
Southern Miss. 5-2 7-4 86.7 87.8 87.2 87.2
Louisiana Tech 3-4 5-6 86.0 87.8 86.6 86.8
UAB 5-2 7-4 81.3 81.2 83.1 81.9
Rice 1-6 1-10 72.8 74.2 73.2 73.4
U T E P 0-7 0-11 68.2 71.1 68.3 69.2
             
CUSA Averages     84.0 85.5 84.8 84.8
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   9-2 117.3 116.2 117.6 117.0
Army   8-3 99.5 99.5 99.8 99.6
Massachusetts   4-7 90.5 89.7 90.8 90.3
BYU   3-9 89.6 89.5 89.3 89.4
             
Indep. Averages     99.2 98.7 99.4 99.1
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio U 5-2 8-3 98.0 99.4 98.9 98.8
Miami (O) 3-4 4-7 88.7 90.7 89.9 89.8
Akron 5-2 6-5 87.9 90.0 88.6 88.8
Buffalo 3-4 5-6 85.6 87.8 87.5 87.0
Bowling Green 2-5 2-9 80.5 81.6 80.8 81.0
Kent St. 1-6 2-9 73.7 75.2 74.0 74.3
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 6-1 9-2 101.9 101.9 103.7 102.5
Western Michigan 4-3 6-5 97.5 96.7 98.4 97.5
Northern Illinois 6-1 8-3 96.1 95.9 97.2 96.4
Eastern Michigan 2-5 4-7 95.7 95.8 96.1 95.9
Central Michigan 5-2 7-4 94.7 95.1 95.5 95.1
Ball St. 0-7 2-9 65.7 67.7 66.4 66.6
             
MAC Averages     88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 7-0 9-2 107.9 106.4 108.3 107.5
Colo. State 5-3 7-5 101.3 100.3 101.1 100.9
Wyoming 5-2 7-4 99.3 98.2 98.6 98.7
Utah St. 4-3 6-5 95.3 94.4 95.1 94.9
Air Force 3-4 4-7 91.9 92.4 91.8 92.0
New Mexico 1-6 3-8 84.6 84.5 85.1 84.7
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 5-2 9-2 102.2 102.2 103.3 102.6
Fresno St. 6-1 8-3 96.7 95.7 97.3 96.6
Nevada 2-5 2-9 88.7 90.4 89.8 89.6
U N L V 4-3 5-6 86.4 87.8 86.5 86.9
Hawaii 1-7 3-8 82.2 83.3 81.7 82.4
San Jose St. 0-7 1-11 69.5 69.8 68.6 69.3
             
MWC Averages     92.2 92.1 92.3 92.2
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 6-2 9-2 125.0 122.9 124.9 124.3
Stanford 7-2 8-3 119.6 118.0 118.8 118.8
Washington St. 6-2 9-2 115.2 113.0 114.8 114.3
Oregon 3-5 6-5 108.7 106.7 108.0 107.8
California 2-6 5-6 105.4 103.2 103.8 104.1
Oregon St. 0-8 1-10 94.1 93.9 92.6 93.5
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 8-1 10-2 119.4 118.6 119.0 119.0
Arizona 5-3 7-4 107.3 105.9 106.3 106.5
Utah 2-6 5-6 106.2 106.6 106.2 106.3
Arizona St. 5-3 6-5 106.5 105.5 106.1 106.0
Colorado 2-6 5-6 106.5 105.1 104.5 105.3
U C L A 3-5 5-6 104.0 103.3 103.5 103.6
             
Pac-12 Averages     109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 7-1 10-1 126.2 126.1 126.5 126.3
Missouri 3-4 6-5 109.7 107.8 109.1 108.9
S. Carolina 5-3 8-3 108.9 107.9 108.1 108.3
Kentucky 4-4 7-4 108.3 107.5 107.0 107.6
Florida 3-5 4-6 106.3 105.9 105.8 106.0
Tennessee 0-7 4-7 99.9 98.3 98.1 98.8
Vanderbilt 0-7 4-7 98.5 97.7 97.2 97.8
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 7-0 11-0 137.9 134.3 136.7 136.3
Auburn 6-1 9-2 128.5 126.4 128.8 127.9
L S U 5-2 8-3 117.7 115.5 118.0 117.1
Mississippi St. 4-3 8-3 114.3 114.3 114.2 114.3
Texas A&M 4-3 7-4 109.5 107.4 108.8 108.6
Ole Miss 2-5 5-6 104.7 103.4 103.5 103.9
Arkansas 1-6 4-7 98.8 98.1 98.5 98.5
             
SEC Averages     112.1 110.8 111.5 111.4
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Troy 5-1 8-2 95.5 95.7 95.1 95.4
Arkansas St. 5-1 6-3 94.3 95.5 95.5 95.1
Appalachian St. 5-1 6-4 93.6 92.4 93.4 93.1
N. Mexico St. 2-4 4-6 85.9 84.7 86.0 85.5
UL-Lafayette 4-2 5-5 84.0 84.9 84.0 84.3
Georgia St. 5-1 6-3 84.3 84.1 84.3 84.3
UL-Monroe 4-3 4-6 83.0 83.8 82.2 83.0
S. Alabama 3-4 4-7 80.7 82.7 80.9 81.4
Idaho 2-4 3-7 79.1 80.2 79.9 79.7
Georgia Southern 1-5 1-9 78.6 80.0 78.0 78.9
Texas St. 1-6 2-9 73.6 75.7 72.9 74.1
Coastal Carolina 1-6 2-9 72.4 73.8 73.1 73.1
             
Sun Belt Averages     83.8 84.5 83.8 84.0

Conference Ratings

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 113.0 111.9 112.5 112.5
2 SEC 112.1 110.8 111.5 111.4
3 BIG 12 109.7 109.8 109.9 109.8
4 PAC-12 109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
5 BIG TEN 108.6 108.4 108.3 108.4
6 INDEP. 99.2 98.7 99.4 99.1
7 AAC 97.6 98.1 98.0 97.9
8 MWC 92.2 92.1 92.3 92.2
9 MAC 88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
10 CUSA 84.0 85.5 84.8 84.8
11 Sun Belt 83.8 84.5 83.8 84.0

Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Orleans CUSA SBC La. Tech UL-Lafayette
Cure AAC SBC Houston Troy
Las Vegas MWC 1 PAC-12 5 Boise St. Stanford
New Mexico CUSA MWC North Texas Colorado St.
Camellia MAC SBC Northern Illinois Georgia St.
Boca Raton AAC CUSA South Florida Florida Atlantic
Frisco AAC MAC SMU Ohio U
Gasparilla AAC CUSA [Utah St.] Marshall
Bahamas CUSA 1 MAC Florida Int’l. Toledo
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Central Mich. Wyoming
Birmingham AAC SEC 8-9 [UAB] [UNLV]
Armed Forces Army BIG TEN 8 ARMY [Middle Tenn.]
Dollar General MAC SBC Akron Appalachian St.
Hawaii AAC MWC Central Florida San Diego St.
Heart of Dallas BIG 12 6 CUSA [UCLA] UTSA
Quick Lane ACC 7-9 BIG TEN 7 [Utah] [Western Mich.]
Cactus BIG 12 5 PAC-12 6 Kansas St. Arizona
Independence ACC 7-9 SEC 8-9 Florida St. [Western Ky.]
Pinstripe ACC 3-6 BIG TEN 5 Boston College Iowa
Foster Farms BIG TEN 6 PAC-12 8 [Southern Miss.] Oregon
Texas BIG 12 3 SEC 2-7 Texas Missouri
Military AAC 7-9 ACC 7-9 Navy Virginia
Camping World ACC 2 BIG 12 2 Virginia Tech Iowa St.
Holiday BIG TEN 3 PAC-12 2 Michigan Washington
Alamo BIG 12 1 PAC-12 1 Oklahoma St. Washington St.
Belk ACC 3-6 SEC 2-7 Wake Forest South Carolina
Sun ACC 3-6 Pac-12 Louisville Arizona St.
Music City ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Indiana Kentucky
Arizona MWC SBC Fresno St. Arkansas St.
Cotton At-large At-large Georgia Ohio St.
Taxslayer ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 NC St. Miss. St.
Liberty BIG 12 4 SEC 2-7 West Virginia Texas A&M
Fiesta At-large At-large Penn St. USC
Orange ACC 1 SEC 1/B10 1 Clemson Notre Dame
Outback BIG TEN 2 SEC 2-7 Michigan St. LSU
Peach At-large At-large Memphis TCU
Citrus B10 1/ACC 2 SEC 1 Northwestern Auburn
Rose Playoff Semi-final Miami (Fla.) Oklahoma
Sugar Playoff Semi-final Alabama Wisconsin
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Alabama Oklahoma
         
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Championship Games and Bowl Eligibles By Conference

If you are a fan of a team that will finish 5-6 or 5-7, you can forget your team playing in a bowl with a losing record this season.  In fact, we project two bowl eligible teams to miss out on all the fun this year, as we project 80 teams to be bowl eligible this season.

American Athletic

The UCF-USF winner this week will face Memphis for the conference championship.  It looks like UCF and Memphis will meet in Orlando in a rematch game.  UCF won the first one convincingly, but Memphis is several points better now than then.  The winner of this game almost assuredly plays in the New Year’s Six Bowl as the Group of 5 Representative, and it will more than likely be at the Peach Bowl.

Bowl Eligible: 6 (UCF, USF, Memphis, Navy, Houston, SMU)

5-Wins: Temple and Tulane

Temple must win at Tulsa, which is doable but less than 50-50.

Tulane must win at SMU, which is also doable but less than 50-50 and less then Temple’s chances.

Atlantic Coast 

Clemson will play Miami (Fla.) in Charlotte.  The winner has about a 92% chance of gaining a Playoff spot, while the loser will most likely get an Orange Bowl bid.

Bowl Eligible: 8 (Clemson, Wake Forest, Louisville, NC St., Boston College, Miami, Va. Tech, Virginia

5-Wins: Georgia Tech and Duke

Georgia Tech would have to pull off the monumental upset of Georgia, which they may have about a 3-5% chance of doing.

Duke must win at Wake Forest, and the Demon Deacons are playing like a top 20 team.  The Blue Devils beat Georgia Tech, so they could be peaking at the right time.

4-Wins: Florida St.

The Seminoles were able to reschedule their cancelled hurricane game with UL-Monroe, and now they can become bowl eligible by beating Florida and ULM.  We believe their chances to get to 6-6 are about 70-75% in their favor.

Big 12

Oklahoma has clinched the top seed in the renewal of the Big 12 Championship Game.  TCU needs to beat Baylor this week to get the number two seed.  If the Horn Frogs croak against the Bears, then Oklahoma St. will get the bid with a win over hapless Kansas.  There is a very remote chance that Iowa St. could still get in, but it would require too many things to take place.

Bowl Eligible: 7 (Oklahoma, TCU, Okla. St., Iowa St., Texas, West Virginia, Kansas St.)

5-Wins: Texas Tech

Texas Tech closes the season at Texas, and we believe the Longhorns will handle the Red Raiders and most likely end the Kliff Kingsbury era in Lubbock.

Big Ten

Wisconsin and Ohio State have clinched their divisions and will face off in the Big Ten Championship Game.  The Badgers’ defense may be up to the task to handle an inconsistent Buckeye offense.  If so, UW is Playoff-bound.  A Buckeye win opens the door for a one-loss Miami or one-loss Alabama team to get this bid, or if Miami and Alabama are unbeaten, there will be a big controversy over the #4 seed between a 2-loss Ohio State, Georgia, USC, and Notre Dame, and maybe even an undefeated UCF if they win their last two games.

Bowl Eligible: 7 (but guaranteed to have 8) (Ohio St., Penn St., Michigan St., Michigan, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Iowa)

5-Wins: Indiana, Purdue, Minnesota.

Indiana and Purdue play for the Old Oaken Bucket and a bowl bid, as the winner will be 6-6.

Minnesota must beat undefeated Wisconsin to finish 6-6.  With the Gophers’ offense struggling, and the Badgers defense peaking, UW could win this won in an ugly fashion in the neighborhood of 20-6.

Conference USA

This conference is going to strike it rich this bowl season with a possible 10 teams playing in December.

First, Florida Atlantic and North Texas will square off in one of the potentially best championship games in this league’s history.  Win or lose, we are hearing from sources that the Boca Raton Bowl would love to invite hometown team FAU.

Bowl Eligible: 8 (guaranteed to have 9) (Florida Atlantic, Florida Int’l., Marshall, Western Kentucky, North Texas, UAB, Southern Miss, UTSA)

5-Wins: Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion, Louisiana Tech

Middle Tennessee and Old Dominion play each other in Murfreesboro this week, so the winner will become bowl eligible.

Louisiana Tech hosts UTSA with a slumping offense, and we give the Bulldogs a 70% chance of winning this game and becoming the 10th bowl eligible CUSA team.  There will be slots available possibly for all 10 teams, and it is possible that two CUSA could face off in a bowl.

Independents

Army is 8-3 with the Navy game remaining.  The Black Knights are Armed Forces Bowl bound.

Notre Dame actually counts with the ACC teams, so they are part of the ACC package, and we believe the Irish will  be enjoying Oranges this year, but only if they get by Stanford this week,.

Mid-American

Akron beat Ohio to win the Eastern Division title.  The Zips will play Toledo or Northern Illinois.  TU can clinch the Western Division title with a win at home against Western Michigan or a Northern Illinois loss at Central Michigan.  NIU can win if they beat CMU and WMU beats Toledo.

This league will receive an extra bid and possibly two extra bids.  See Below

Bowl Eligible: 6 (Akron, Ohio, Toledo, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan, Central Michigan)

5-Wins: Buffalo

Buffalo hosts Ohio U this week, and a Bulls win will give them a 6-6 record.  There is a catch.  Buffalo most likely needs Louisiana Tech or Florida State to lose this week to guarantee a decent shot at a bowl.  We have the Bulls as team #79 in a 78-team bowl field.  There is another little possibility that could help Buffalo get over the top ahead of another bowl eligible team.  The MAC has two secondary bowl agreements, with the Quick Lane and the Foster Farms bowls.

Toledo at 10-2 might be attractive enough for the Foster Farms Bowl to invite the Rockets west to face Oregon, Stanford, Washington, or California.  The Quick Lane is most likely going to need a MAC team as well, so Buffalo could sneak in to a bowl through this back door ahead of a 10th CUSA team.

Mountain West

Here is where a conference championship game will not be as exciting as it should be, unless something really interesting takes place this week.  Boise State and Fresno State have clinched berths in the MWC Championship Game, but the two teams close out the regular season facing each other, so it will be an immediate rematch.  The Las Vegas Bowl bid goes to the winner of the second game.  Even if the Conference Champion loses by 50 points this week and wins by 1 next week, that team gets the Las Vegas Bowl bid.

Bowl Eligible: 6 (Boise St., Colorado St., Wyoming, Utah St., Fresno St., San Diego St.)

5-Wins: UNLV

The Runnin’ Rebels must win their rivalry game against Nevada, and they must do it in Reno.  UNLV has about a 50-50 shot at pulling it off, giving the MWC 7 bowl teams for 5 bowls.  Two at-large slots will be waiting for the 6th and 7th teams.

Pac-12

USC has clinched the South Division, and the Trojans hold a very minute chance of sneaking into the Playoffs.  More than likely, they are playing in the Pac-12 Championship Game for a berth in the Fiesta Bowl.

The North Division is still up for grabs between Washington State and Stanford.  If Washington State wins the Apple Cup, then the Pirate Mike Leach will have his team in the Championship Game.  If Washington wins, then Stanford takes the treasure away from the Pirate.

The bigger news in the Pac-12 is the firing of UCLA coach Jim Mora, Jr.  The Bruins still have a game to go at home against California, and the winner will be bowl eligible.  UCLA is actually hoping it can win the Chip Kelly Bowl.  Kelly is rumored to be headed to Westwood, but it is not confirmed.

Bowl Eligible: 7 (but guaranteed to have 9) (Washington St., Stanford, Washington, Oregon, USC, Arizona St., Arizona)

5-Win Teams: California, UCLA, Utah, Colorado

Cal plays at UCLA, and the Bears hope they can swim with the Fisch’s.  Jedd Fisch will be UCLA coach for one or two games.

Colorado visits Utah, so the winner of that game will also be bowl eligible.

Look for the Pac-12 to place 2 at-large teams in bowls back east, most likely the two winners this week.

Southeastern

Normally a league with double digit bowl participants, the SEC is only going to have 9 teams playing in the postseason.

Georgia is waiting for the winner of the Iron Bowl to face off in the SEC Championship Game.  Auburn has become the sexy choice to knock off the number one Crimson Tide, but us old Buccaneers believe this just won’t happen.  We have Alabama set to be the top seed in the Playoffs, hosting team number four in the Sugar Bowl.

Bowl Eligible: 9 (Georgia, Kentucky, Missouri, South Carolina, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi St., Texas A&M)

5-Wins: None

Sun Belt

They have 12 teams in this league, but there is no championship game in the SBC.  The Sun Belt is most likely to have extra teams, including team number 80, or the second bowl eligible team left out of all the fun.

There are two weeks left in the SBC regular season, so there are some 4-6 teams still alive in the bowl hunt.

Bowl Eligible: 4 (Troy, Georgia St., Arkansas St., Appalachian St.)

5-Wins: UL-Lafayette

The Ragin’ Cajuns have two games left and need to win just one to most likely get their New Orleans Bowl bid that they always seem to get whenever they are bowl eligible.  ULL hosts 1-9 Georgia Southern this week and should secure their sixth win.  They finish at Appy State, where they are most likely to lose.

4-Wins: UL-Monroe and New Mexico St.

UL-Monroe has less than 0.5% chance of beating Arkansas St. at home this week and then winning at Florida St. the week after.  So, the Warhawks are basically out of the picture.

New Mexico St. has at least a 50-50 chance of finishing the season with wins over Idaho and South Alabama, both games in Las Cruces.  However, the Aggies do not have a great shot at getting into their first bowl since the 1960 Sun Bowl.  NMSU is leaving the Sun Belt and will become an independent next year.  The SBC has a history of being a tad bush league by shunning teams leaving their conference.  The Aggies have already told the league they can only accept bids to bowls close to home, and we believe they will get to spend the holidays very close to home, because they will not be invited to a bowl if they finish 6-6.  Of course, if two from Louisiana Tech, Buffalo, and Florida State lose, and if Duke loses to Wake Forest and Minnesota loses to Wisconsin, then the Aggies will get an invitation at 6-6.  Whether or not they accept it, we cannot predict.

We here at the PiRate Ratings hope you have a festive Thanksgiving holiday.  Don’t let your tummy be the biggest loser this week.  Pace yourself and try to get some exercise.

Our schedule will be a little different this week.  We are putting out our Monday edition today on Sunday.  We will have both the NFL ratings and Money Line picks on Tuesday, and then we will return next Sunday night or Monday morning.

Thank You to all our followers.  You have made 2017 a record year for PiRate Rating readership.  A lot of you came on board back during March Madness, because we were very lucky to successfully pick all 68 teams in the NCAA Tournament.  Our basketball coverage will return just after New Year’s, as our ratings need all the teams to play 8 games before they make any sense.

 

November 13, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for November 14-18, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Akron Ohio -10.3 -9.0 -10.9
Kent St. Central Michigan -18.5 -17.4 -19.0
Bowling Green Toledo -17.1 -16.1 -18.2
Miami (O) Eastern Michigan -4.6 -2.7 -3.9
Northern Illinois Western Michigan 1.2 1.9 1.4
Ball St. Buffalo -16.9 -17.1 -18.3
South Florida Tulsa 18.3 17.4 19.4
Western Kentucky Middle Tennessee 7.0 5.8 6.8
New Mexico UNLV 1.8 0.1 2.4
Indiana Rutgers 8.3 9.0 8.7
Georgia Kentucky 19.6 20.5 20.7
East Carolina Cincinnati -3.0 -3.2 -4.3
Duke Georgia Tech -7.3 -5.2 -7.3
Virginia Tech Pittsburgh 17.3 16.8 17.6
Temple Central Florida -15.1 -16.0 -15.9
Wake Forest North Carolina St. -2.4 -3.5 -2.5
Louisville Syracuse 6.2 6.8 6.7
Northwestern Minnesota 7.8 5.8 8.5
Michigan St. Maryland 9.6 9.2 11.4
West Virginia Texas 2.3 2.3 2.3
Kansas Oklahoma -40.0 -35.4 -42.2
Wyoming Fresno St. 8.6 8.2 7.4
Boise St. Air Force 17.1 15.2 17.3
Utah St. Hawaii 12.0 10.2 11.9
Old Dominion Rice 14.6 15.6 14.7
Southern Miss. Charlotte 15.0 13.8 15.2
BYU Massachusetts 3.3 4.0 2.7
UTEP Louisiana Tech -14.5 -13.4 -15.0
Georgia Southern South Alabama -9.1 -9.7 -9.9
Texas Tech TCU -11.5 -9.8 -12.3
Iowa Purdue 13.0 12.9 12.2
Oregon Arizona 0.6 0.5 0.4
Ohio St. Illinois 46.7 43.4 48.1
Florida UAB 27.3 23.8 24.4
Oregon St. Arizona St. -7.9 -7.5 -9.1
Memphis SMU 13.2 12.2 13.4
Miami (Fla.) Virginia 27.4 26.4 26.8
Baylor Iowa St. -11.6 -10.3 -12.7
Arkansas Mississippi St. -12.9 -13.5 -13.5
Vanderbilt Missouri -6.6 -5.4 -7.2
Washington Utah 25.1 21.7 25.4
Auburn UL-Monroe 49.5 46.6 50.5
Oklahoma St. Kansas St. 16.5 15.4 17.3
Colorado St. San Jose St. 35.2 33.9 35.9
Penn St. Nebraska 32.1 29.9 33.3
Tennessee LSU -14.4 -13.8 -16.5
Notre Dame Navy 20.9 18.7 21.3
Tulane Houston -7.7 -6.9 -7.7
UL-Lafayatte New Mexico St. -2.4 0.6 -2.7
Idaho Coastal Carolina 13.8 13.6 13.9
North Texas Army -12.1 -10.2 -11.8
Arkansas St. Texas St. 24.2 23.1 26.0
Florida Atlantic Florida Int’l. 13.4 15.1 14.2
Boston College (n) Connecticut 26.7 24.4 26.5
UTSA Marshall 0.3 1.3 -0.5
Ole Miss Texas A&M -1.0 -0.4 -1.3
Wisconsin Michigan 11.1 8.6 10.6
USC UCLA 17.8 17.5 18.3
Stanford California 16.9 17.3 18.3
San Diego St. Nevada 16.1 14.2 15.8

FBS vs. FCS Games

Home Visitor PiRate
Clemson Citadel 50.0
Alabama Mercer 49.0
Florida St. Delaware St. 50.0
North Carolina Western Carolina 24.0
South Carolina Wofford 27.0

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Retrodictive Rankings
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Miami (Fla)
3 Clemson
4 Wisconsin
5 Oklahoma
6 Georgia
7 Ohio St.
8 Central Florida
9 Notre Dame
10 Penn St.
11 Auburn
12 USC
13 Oklahoma St.
14 Michigan
15 TCU
16 Washington
17 Washington St.
18 Mississippi St.
19 North Carolina St.
20 Memphis
21 Virginia Tech
22 Michigan St.
23 Stanford
24 Iowa
25 Boise St.
26 LSU
27 Northwestern
28 Wake Forest
29 Iowa St.
30 South Florida
31 Arizona
32 South Carolina
33 West Virginia
34 Georgia Tech
35 Boston College
36 San Diego St.
37 Toledo
38 Houston
39 Louisville
40 Texas A&M
41 Texas
42 Navy
43 Florida Atlantic
44 Kentucky
45 Army
46 Arizona St.
47 Ohio
48 Oregon
49 Florida St.
50 Northern Illinois
51 SMU
52 UCLA
53 Texas Tech
54 Troy
55 Missouri
56 Utah
57 California
58 Syracuse
59 Fresno St.
60 Wyoming
61 Marshall
62 Purdue
63 Virginia
64 Minnesota
65 Ole Miss
66 Kansas St.
67 Indiana
68 North Texas
69 Maryland
70 Western Michigan
71 Florida
72 Colorado
73 Nebraska
74 Colorado St.
75 Duke
76 Central Michigan
77 Pittsburgh
78 Temple
79 Tennessee
80 Arkansas St.
81 Rutgers
82 Utah St.
83 Arkansas
84 Florida Int’l.
85 UAB
86 Vanderbilt
87 Tulane
88 Akron
89 Southern Miss.
90 Appalachian St.
91 North Carolina
92 Georgia St.
93 Air Force
94 Middle Tennessee
95 Eastern Michigan
96 Buffalo
97 Miami (O)
98 UTSA
99 Cincinnati
100 Louisiana Tech
101 Western Kentucky
102 Tulsa
103 UNLV
104 New Mexico St.
105 South Alabama
106 Connecticut
107 Old Dominion
108 BYU
109 UL-Monroe
110 Baylor
111 Massachusetts
112 Illinois
113 Nevada
114 UL-Lafayette
115 New Mexico
116 Idaho
117 Oregon St.
118 East Carolina
119 Bowling Green
120 Hawaii
121 Kent St.
122 Kansas
123 Ball St.
124 Rice
125 Charlotte
126 Texas St.
127 Coastal Carolina
128 Georgia Southern
129 San Jose St.
130 UTEP

 

 

PiRate Predictive Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 137.6 134.0 136.4 136.0
2 Ohio St. 132.7 130.4 133.1 132.1
3 Auburn 129.0 126.9 129.3 128.4
4 Clemson 128.1 125.6 127.6 127.1
5 Penn St. 126.6 125.2 127.1 126.3
6 Washington 126.8 124.3 126.9 126.0
7 Georgia 125.5 125.6 125.6 125.6
8 Miami 126.3 124.4 125.7 125.5
9 Oklahoma 125.0 123.7 125.8 124.8
10 Oklahoma St. 123.1 122.2 123.7 123.0
11 Wisconsin 123.8 121.2 122.6 122.6
12 Stanford 120.2 118.5 119.7 119.5
13 U S C 119.7 118.8 119.5 119.3
14 Virginia Tech 119.6 118.9 119.5 119.3
15 T C U 118.6 116.9 118.9 118.1
16 Notre Dame 118.2 116.8 118.7 117.9
17 L S U 117.5 115.3 117.8 116.9
18 N. Carolina St. 116.9 116.1 116.9 116.6
19 Michigan 115.7 115.7 115.0 115.5
20 Florida St. 116.2 115.3 114.7 115.4
21 Mississippi St. 114.5 114.5 114.6 114.5
22 Georgia Tech 115.5 113.0 114.3 114.3
23 Washington St. 114.9 112.7 114.5 114.0
24 Central Florida 112.7 114.1 113.8 113.6
25 Iowa State 112.6 112.6 113.7 113.0
26 Iowa 112.9 113.0 112.3 112.8
27 Texas 112.1 112.4 112.6 112.4
28 Louisville 112.3 111.4 112.1 111.9
29 Wake Forest 112.5 110.6 112.5 111.8
30 West Virginia 111.4 111.7 111.9 111.7
31 Northwestern 110.4 109.3 110.3 110.0
32 South Florida 110.1 109.0 110.7 109.9
33 Boston College 109.9 109.6 109.9 109.8
34 Kansas St. 109.6 109.8 109.4 109.6
35 Memphis 108.8 108.1 109.4 108.7
36 S. Carolina 109.1 108.1 108.3 108.5
37 Arizona 109.2 107.6 108.4 108.4
38 Syracuse 109.1 107.6 108.4 108.4
39 Kentucky 109.0 108.0 107.9 108.3
40 Texas A&M 109.1 107.1 108.3 108.2
41 Missouri 108.5 106.6 107.8 107.6
42 Boise St. 107.0 105.5 107.2 106.6
43 Oregon 106.8 105.0 105.9 105.9
44 Florida 106.2 105.6 105.4 105.7
45 Minnesota 105.6 106.5 104.8 105.6
46 Michigan St. 104.9 105.8 106.0 105.6
47 Arizona St. 105.8 104.9 105.4 105.4
48 Duke 105.7 105.3 104.5 105.2
49 Pittsburgh 105.3 105.1 104.9 105.1
50 Colorado 106.2 104.8 104.2 105.0
51 Utah 104.7 105.5 104.5 104.9
52 Texas Tech 104.6 104.5 104.1 104.4
53 Ole Miss 105.1 103.7 104.0 104.3
54 California 104.8 102.7 102.9 103.5
55 Houston 103.4 103.0 103.6 103.3
56 Indiana 102.9 103.1 103.2 103.1
57 Purdue 102.9 103.1 103.1 103.0
58 U C L A 103.4 102.8 102.7 103.0
59 San Diego St. 102.0 101.9 102.9 102.3
60 Virginia 101.8 101.0 101.9 101.6
61 N. Carolina 102.1 101.2 101.2 101.5
62 Toledo 100.7 100.8 102.4 101.3
63 Colo. State 101.5 100.5 101.3 101.1
64 Army 100.9 100.6 101.4 101.0
65 Navy 100.3 101.1 100.4 100.6
66 Wyoming 100.7 99.4 100.0 100.0
67 Ohio U 99.1 100.2 100.2 99.8
68 Vanderbilt 99.9 99.1 98.7 99.2
69 Florida Atlantic 98.0 100.0 99.5 99.2
70 Tennessee 100.1 98.5 98.3 99.0
71 SMU 98.5 98.9 99.0 98.8
72 Maryland 98.3 99.6 97.6 98.5
73 Baylor 98.0 99.4 98.0 98.5
74 Arkansas 98.6 97.9 98.1 98.2
75 Western Michigan 97.7 96.8 98.6 97.7
76 Nebraska 97.5 98.3 96.8 97.5
77 Rutgers 97.6 97.1 97.5 97.4
78 Northern Illinois 95.9 95.8 97.0 96.2
79 Eastern Michigan 95.8 95.8 96.2 95.9
80 Arkansas St. 94.5 95.7 95.7 95.3
81 Troy 95.2 95.4 94.8 95.1
82 Central Michigan 94.7 95.1 95.5 95.1
83 Fresno St. 95.0 94.2 95.6 95.0
84 Temple 94.6 95.1 95.0 94.9
85 Tulsa 94.8 94.6 94.3 94.6
86 Oregon St. 94.8 94.5 93.3 94.2
87 Air Force 92.8 93.3 92.9 93.0
88 Tulane 92.7 93.1 92.9 92.9
89 Appalachian St. 93.3 92.1 93.1 92.8
90 Marshall 91.8 93.0 93.5 92.8
91 Utah St. 92.6 91.8 92.2 92.2
92 W. Kentucky 90.7 90.8 91.5 91.0
93 U T S A 89.1 91.4 90.0 90.1
94 Massachusetts 90.3 89.5 90.6 90.1
95 BYU 90.1 90.0 89.8 89.9
96 Nevada 88.9 90.7 90.2 89.9
97 Miami (O) 88.6 90.7 89.8 89.7
98 Illinois 89.0 90.0 88.0 89.0
99 Cincinnati 87.9 89.5 89.0 88.8
100 Akron 86.8 89.2 87.3 87.8
101 N. Mexico St. 87.6 86.0 87.9 87.2
102 Buffalo 85.6 87.8 87.6 87.0
103 Middle Tennessee 86.3 87.5 87.2 87.0
104 U N L V 86.1 87.6 86.1 86.6
105 N. Texas 85.8 87.4 86.5 86.6
106 S. Alabama 85.7 87.7 85.9 86.4
107 Louisiana Tech 85.6 87.4 86.2 86.4
108 Florida Int’l. 86.0 86.4 86.8 86.4
109 New Mexico 84.9 84.7 85.5 85.0
110 Connecticut 84.2 86.2 84.3 84.9
111 Hawaii 84.6 85.6 84.3 84.8
112 Southern Miss. 84.2 85.3 84.7 84.7
113 Old Dominion 83.5 85.9 83.9 84.4
114 Georgia St. 84.0 83.8 84.0 84.0
115 UAB 81.4 84.2 83.5 83.0
116 East Carolina 82.4 83.9 82.2 82.8
117 UL-Lafayette 82.3 83.6 82.1 82.7
118 Kansas 81.9 85.3 80.6 82.6
119 UL-Monroe 82.5 83.3 81.7 82.5
120 Bowling Green 81.7 82.7 82.1 82.2
121 Idaho 81.1 82.2 81.9 81.7
122 Georgia Southern 74.6 76.0 74.0 74.9
123 Kent St. 73.7 75.2 74.0 74.3
124 Texas St. 73.4 75.5 72.7 73.9
125 Charlotte 72.2 74.5 72.4 73.0
126 Rice 71.9 73.3 72.2 72.5
127 Coastal Carolina 70.7 72.1 71.4 71.4
128 U T E P 68.6 71.5 68.7 69.6
129 San Jose St. 69.3 69.6 68.4 69.1
130 Ball St. 65.7 67.7 66.3 66.6

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Central Florida 6-0 9-0 112.7 114.1 113.8 113.6
South Florida 5-1 8-1 110.1 109.0 110.7 109.9
Temple 3-3 5-5 94.6 95.1 95.0 94.9
Cincinnati 1-5 3-7 87.9 89.5 89.0 88.8
Connecticut 2-5 3-7 84.2 86.2 84.3 84.9
East Carolina 1-5 2-8 82.4 83.9 82.2 82.8
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 5-1 8-1 108.8 108.1 109.4 108.7
Houston 4-2 6-3 103.4 103.0 103.6 103.3
Navy 4-3 6-3 100.3 101.1 100.4 100.6
SMU 3-3 6-4 98.5 98.9 99.0 98.8
Tulsa 1-5 2-8 94.8 94.6 94.3 94.6
Tulane 2-4 4-6 92.7 93.1 92.9 92.9
             
AAC Averages     97.5 98.0 97.9 97.8
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 7-1 9-1 128.1 125.6 127.6 127.1
N. Carolina St. 5-1 7-3 116.9 116.1 116.9 116.6
Florida St. 3-5 3-6 116.2 115.3 114.7 115.4
Louisville 3-4 6-4 112.3 111.4 112.1 111.9
Wake Forest 3-3 6-4 112.5 110.6 112.5 111.8
Boston College 3-4 5-5 109.9 109.6 109.9 109.8
Syracuse 2-4 4-6 109.1 107.6 108.4 108.4
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 6-0 9-0 126.3 124.4 125.7 125.5
Virginia Tech 3-3 7-3 119.6 118.9 119.5 119.3
Georgia Tech 4-3 5-4 115.5 113.0 114.3 114.3
Duke 1-5 4-6 105.7 105.3 104.5 105.2
Pittsburgh 2-4 4-6 105.3 105.1 104.9 105.1
Virginia 3-3 6-4 101.8 101.0 101.9 101.6
N. Carolina 1-6 2-8 102.1 101.2 101.2 101.5
             
ACC Averages     113.0 111.8 112.4 112.4
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 6-1 9-1 125.0 123.7 125.8 124.8
Oklahoma St. 5-2 8-2 123.1 122.2 123.7 123.0
T C U 5-2 8-2 118.6 116.9 118.9 118.1
Iowa State 4-3 5-5 112.6 112.6 113.7 113.0
Texas 4-3 5-5 112.1 112.4 112.6 112.4
West Virginia 5-2 7-3 111.4 111.7 111.9 111.7
Kansas St. 3-4 5-5 109.6 109.8 109.4 109.6
Texas Tech 2-5 5-5 104.6 104.5 104.1 104.4
Baylor 1-6 1-9 98.0 99.4 98.0 98.5
Kansas 0-7 1-9 81.9 85.3 80.6 82.6
             
Big 12 Averages     109.7 109.8 109.9 109.8
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 6-1 8-2 132.7 130.4 133.1 132.1
Penn St. 5-2 8-2 126.6 125.2 127.1 126.3
Michigan 5-2 8-2 115.7 115.7 115.0 115.5
Michigan St. 5-2 7-3 104.9 105.8 106.0 105.6
Indiana 1-6 4-6 102.9 103.1 103.2 103.1
Maryland 2-5 4-6 98.3 99.6 97.6 98.5
Rutgers 3-4 4-6 97.6 97.1 97.5 97.4
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 7-0 10-0 123.8 121.2 122.6 122.6
Iowa 3-4 6-4 112.9 113.0 112.3 112.8
Northwestern 5-2 7-3 110.4 109.3 110.3 110.0
Minnesota 2-5 5-5 105.6 106.5 104.8 105.6
Purdue 2-5 4-6 102.9 103.1 103.1 103.0
Nebraska 3-4 4-6 97.5 98.3 96.8 97.5
Illinois 0-7 2-8 89.0 90.0 88.0 89.0
             
Big Ten Averages     108.6 108.4 108.4 108.5
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida Atlantic 6-0 7-3 98.0 100.0 99.5 99.2
Marshall 4-2 7-3 91.8 93.0 93.5 92.8
W. Kentucky 3-3 5-5 90.7 90.8 91.5 91.0
Middle Tennessee 3-3 5-5 86.3 87.5 87.2 87.0
Florida Int’l. 4-2 6-3 86.0 86.4 86.8 86.4
Old Dominion 2-4 4-6 83.5 85.9 83.9 84.4
Charlotte 1-5 1-9 72.2 74.5 72.4 73.0
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 2-4 5-4 89.1 91.4 90.0 90.1
N. Texas 6-1 7-3 85.8 87.4 86.5 86.6
Louisiana Tech 2-4 4-6 85.6 87.4 86.2 86.4
Southern Miss. 4-2 6-4 84.2 85.3 84.7 84.7
UAB 5-2 7-3 81.4 84.2 83.5 83.0
Rice 1-5 1-9 71.9 73.3 72.2 72.5
U T E P 0-6 0-10 68.6 71.5 68.7 69.6
             
CUSA Averages     83.9 85.6 84.8 84.8
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   8-2 118.2 116.8 118.7 117.9
Army   8-2 100.9 100.6 101.4 101.0
Massachusetts   3-7 90.3 89.5 90.6 90.1
BYU   3-8 90.1 90.0 89.8 89.9
             
Indep. Averages     99.9 99.2 100.1 99.7
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio U 5-1 8-2 99.1 100.2 100.2 99.8
Miami (O) 3-3 4-6 88.6 90.7 89.8 89.7
Akron 4-2 5-5 86.8 89.2 87.3 87.8
Buffalo 2-4 4-6 85.6 87.8 87.6 87.0
Bowling Green 2-4 2-8 81.7 82.7 82.1 82.2
Kent St. 1-5 2-8 73.7 75.2 74.0 74.3
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 5-1 8-2 100.7 100.8 102.4 101.3
Western Michigan 4-2 6-4 97.7 96.8 98.6 97.7
Northern Illinois 5-1 7-3 95.9 95.8 97.0 96.2
Eastern Michigan 1-5 3-7 95.8 95.8 96.2 95.9
Central Michigan 4-2 6-4 94.7 95.1 95.5 95.1
Ball St. 0-6 2-8 65.7 67.7 66.3 66.6
             
MAC Averages     88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 6-0 8-2 107.0 105.5 107.2 106.6
Colo. State 4-3 6-5 101.5 100.5 101.3 101.1
Wyoming 5-1 7-3 100.7 99.4 100.0 100.0
Air Force 3-3 4-6 92.8 93.3 92.9 93.0
Utah St. 3-3 5-5 92.6 91.8 92.2 92.2
New Mexico 1-5 3-7 84.9 84.7 85.5 85.0
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 4-2 8-2 102.0 101.9 102.9 102.3
Fresno St. 5-1 7-3 95.0 94.2 95.6 95.0
Nevada 2-4 2-8 88.9 90.7 90.2 89.9
U N L V 3-3 4-6 86.1 87.6 86.1 86.6
Hawaii 1-6 3-7 84.6 85.6 84.3 84.8
San Jose St. 0-6 1-10 69.3 69.6 68.4 69.1
             
MWC Averages     92.1 92.1 92.2 92.1
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 5-2 8-2 126.8 124.3 126.9 126.0
Stanford 6-2 7-3 120.2 118.5 119.7 119.5
Washington St. 6-2 9-2 114.9 112.7 114.5 114.0
Oregon 2-5 5-5 106.8 105.0 105.9 105.9
California 2-5 5-5 104.8 102.7 102.9 103.5
Oregon St. 0-7 1-9 94.8 94.5 93.3 94.2
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 7-1 9-2 119.7 118.8 119.5 119.3
Arizona 5-2 7-3 109.2 107.6 108.4 108.4
Arizona St. 4-3 5-5 105.8 104.9 105.4 105.4
Colorado 2-6 5-6 106.2 104.8 104.2 105.0
Utah 2-5 5-5 104.7 105.5 104.5 104.9
U C L A 3-4 5-5 103.4 102.8 102.7 103.0
             
Pac-12 Averages     109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 6-1 9-1 125.5 125.6 125.6 125.6
S. Carolina 5-3 7-3 109.1 108.1 108.3 108.5
Kentucky 4-3 7-3 109.0 108.0 107.9 108.3
Missouri 2-4 5-5 108.5 106.6 107.8 107.6
Florida 3-5 3-6 106.2 105.6 105.4 105.7
Vanderbilt 0-6 4-6 99.9 99.1 98.7 99.2
Tennessee 0-6 4-6 100.1 98.5 98.3 99.0
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 7-0 10-0 137.6 134.0 136.4 136.0
Auburn 6-1 8-2 129.0 126.9 129.3 128.4
L S U 4-2 7-3 117.5 115.3 117.8 116.9
Mississippi St. 3-3 7-3 114.5 114.5 114.6 114.5
Texas A&M 3-3 6-4 109.1 107.1 108.3 108.2
Ole Miss 2-4 5-5 105.1 103.7 104.0 104.3
Arkansas 1-5 4-6 98.6 97.9 98.1 98.2
             
SEC Averages     112.1 110.8 111.5 111.5
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Arkansas St. 4-1 5-3 94.5 95.7 95.7 95.3
Troy 5-1 8-2 95.2 95.4 94.8 95.1
Appalachian St. 5-1 6-4 93.3 92.1 93.1 92.8
N. Mexico St. 2-3 4-5 87.6 86.0 87.9 87.2
S. Alabama 3-3 4-6 85.7 87.7 85.9 86.4
Georgia St. 5-1 6-3 84.0 83.8 84.0 84.0
UL-Lafayette 3-2 4-5 82.3 83.6 82.1 82.7
UL-Monroe 4-3 4-5 82.5 83.3 81.7 82.5
Idaho 2-3 3-6 81.1 82.2 81.9 81.7
Georgia Southern 0-5 0-9 74.6 76.0 74.0 74.9
Texas St. 1-5 2-8 73.4 75.5 72.7 73.9
Coastal Carolina 0-6 1-9 70.7 72.1 71.4 71.4
             
Sun Belt Averages     83.7 84.5 83.8 84.0

Conference Ratings

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 113.0 111.8 112.4 112.4
2 SEC 112.1 110.8 111.5 111.5
3 BIG 12 109.7 109.8 109.9 109.8
4 PAC-12 109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
5 BIG TEN 108.6 108.4 108.4 108.5
6 INDEP. 99.9 99.2 100.1 99.7
7 AAC 97.5 98.0 97.9 97.8
8 MWC 92.1 92.1 92.2 92.1
9 MAC 88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
10 CUSA 83.9 85.6 84.8 84.8
11 Sun Belt 83.7 84.5 83.8 84.0

Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Orleans CUSA SBC UAB UL-Lafayette
Cure AAC SBC Navy Georgia St.
Las Vegas MWC 1 PAC-12 5 Boise St. Arizona St.
New Mexico CUSA MWC North Texas Colorado St.
Camellia MAC SBC Ohio U Troy
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Houston Marshall
Frisco AAC MAC SMU Western Mich.
Gasparilla AAC CUSA [Boston College] Southern Miss.
Bahamas CUSA 1 MAC Florida Atlantic Toledo
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Akron Utah St.
Birmingham AAC SEC 8-9 Temple [Florida Int’l.]
Armed Forces Army BIG TEN 8 ARMY [Western Ky.]
Dollar General MAC SBC Miami (O) Appalachian St.
Hawaii AAC MWC Central Florida San Diego St.
Heart of Dallas BIG 12 6 CUSA [Colorado] UTSA
Quick Lane ACC 7-9 BIG TEN 7 Virginia [Central Mich.]
Cactus BIG 12 5 PAC-12 6 [Fresno St.] Oregon
Independence ACC 7-9 SEC 8-9 Wake Forest [Middle Tenn.]
Pinstripe ACC 3-6 BIG TEN 5 Georgia Tech Iowa
Foster Farms BIG TEN 6 PAC-12 8 [Northern Illinois] Arizona
Texas BIG 12 3 SEC 2-7 Texas LSU
Military AAC 7-9 ACC 7-9 South Florida Florida St.
Camping World ACC 2 BIG 12 2 Notre Dame Iowa St.
Holiday BIG TEN 3 PAC-12 2 Michigan St. Stanford
Alamo BIG 12 1 PAC-12 1 West Virginia Washington St.
Belk ACC 3-6 SEC 2-7 Virginia Tech South Carolina
Sun ACC 3-6 Pac-12 Louisville UCLA
Music City ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Northwestern Kentucky
Arizona MWC SBC Wyoming Arkansas St.
Cotton At-large At-large Georgia Washington
Taxslayer ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 North Carolina St. Missouri
Liberty BIG 12 4 SEC 2-7 Kansas St. Texas A&M
Fiesta At-large At-large USC TCU
Orange ACC 1 SEC 1/B10 1 Clemson Penn St.
Outback BIG TEN 2 SEC 2-7 Michigan Mississippi St.
Peach At-large At-large Oklahoma St. Memphis
Citrus B10 1/ACC 2 SEC 1 Ohio St. Auburn
Rose Playoff Semi-final Oklahoma Miami (Fla.)
Sugar Playoff Semi-final Alabama Wisconsin
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Alabama Oklahoma
         
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Who Should Be National Coach of the Year
If Alabama wins the National Championship this year with a perfect 15-0 record, Nick Saban would be the odds-on favorite to win the National Coach of the Year Award. Playing in a very tough SEC Western Division and adding a win over Georgia, plus two in the Playoffs, it would be hard to argue with anybody that voted Saban number one on their ballots.

However, we here at the PiRate Ratings not only do not think Saban should be the National Coach of the Year, he shouldn’t be the State of Alabama Coach of the Year!
This is not a knock against Saban. In our opinion, Saban’s coaching job this year would be the same as Swen Nater as the second best center in the nation in 1972 and 1973 when he was at UCLA (unfortunately, number one was Bill Walton).

If you are over the age of 50 like so many of our readers, you remember SMU receiving the death penalty, not being allowed to play for two years. When the Mustangs returned to college football, they suffered through years and years of very weak football seasons. It was a new century before the Mustangs finally returned to a bowl.

What would you have thought of any coach that not only could have quickly taken SMU to a bowl in its first year back in football? That SMU coach that helped bring SMU back to football was none other than the greatest offensive tackle in NFL history–Forrest Gregg.  The job was too hard, and SMU won just four games in its first three years back in business.

A similar instance has presented the college football nation with another team not playing football for two seasons before returning this year. UAB dropped football for financial reasons after finishing 6-6 in 2014. The Blazers were expected to struggle mightily in their first season back in FBS football, being lucky to win a game this year. Except, nobody told Coach Bill Clark that his team was not supposed to come within one game of the CUSA West Division title and become bowl eligible, but that is exactly where UAB sits through 10 games of the season. The Blazers are 7-3, and Clark deserves serious consideration for NCOY; nobody has done a better job than Clark.
The Conference Races & Bowl Eligibility
Around the first of February every year, college basketball fans start looking in earnest at which teams appear to be in the NCAA Tournament, which are on “the bubble,” and which appear to be headed to a lesser tournament or none at all. In the Playoff era of FBS football, somebody should start something similar. So, here is a list for each conference.

Group of 5 Conferences
American Athletic Conference
Bowl Eligible: 6 — Central Florida, South Florida, Memphis, Houston, Navy, SMU
5-Win Teams: 1 — Temple
4-Win Teams: 1 — Tulane
Bowl Tie-ins: 7
Likely Bowl Eligibles: 7 (but the champion is likely to receive the NY6 Bowl bid, leaving this league one team short in its needs to fill its bowl tie-ins.

Central Florida leads the race for the one New Year’s Six Bowl slot that goes to a Group of 5 team, but Memphis has just one loss (to UCF). Should the Tigers beat UCF in a rematch at the AAC Championship Game, then Memphis could take the NY6 Bowl. USF is still in contention for this spot as well.

Temple needs one more win. The Owls host Central Florida this week in what should be a trap game for the Knights. TU closes the year out with a road game against Tulsa, so Temple has a decent chance to pick up win number six in the finale.

Tulane must upset Houston and SMU to become bowl eligible, and we do not see the Green Wave toppling either team.

Conference USA
Bowl Eligible: 6 — Florida Atlantic, Marshall, Florida Int’l., North Texas, UAB, Southern Miss.
5-Win Teams: 3 — Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee, UTSA
4-Win Teams: 2 — Old Dominion, Louisiana Tech
Bowl Tie-ins: 6
Likely Bowl Eligibles: 9

Florida Atlantic has a two-game lead over Marshall and FIU, and Lane Kiffin has said this is the mosr rewarding season he has experienced as a coach. North Texas has already clinched the Western Division.

The three 5-win teams have excellent chances to get to six wins, and this should give thie league multiple at-large bowl teams. There will be enough open bowls for all nine bowl-eligible teams to receive bids.

Mid-American
Bowl Eligible: 5 — Ohio, Toledo, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan, Central Michigan
5-Win Teams: 1 — Akron
4-Win Teams: 2 — Miami (O), Buffalo
Bowl Tie-ins: 5
Likely Bowl Eligibles: 7 or 8

Akron may or may not beat Ohio this week, but the Zips finish with Kent State, and this should Terry Bowden’s squad to earn their second bowl in three seasons.

Both Miami and Buffalo have okay chances to win their final two games and square their marks at 6-6, but we believe the better prediction would have just one of the pair going 2-0. Miami host Eastern Michigan and closes at Ball State. The Redhawks lost their first six games last year and then won six in a row to earn a bowl bid. They only needed to go 3-0 to repeat the process this year, and they got a good start by upsetting Akron.

Buffalo has to win at Ball State and then upset Ohio in the regular season finale to finish 6-6. If the Bulls and Miami both finish 6-6, it is our opinion that the MAC will fail to place all eight teams in bowls. Seven teams are most likely the maximum that will earn bids from the MAC.

Mountain West
Bowl Eligible: 5 — Boise St., Wyoming, Colorado St., San Diego St., Fresno St.
5-Win Teams: 1 — Utah St.
4-Win Teams: 2 — Air Force, UNLV
Bowl Tie-ins: 5
Likely Bowl Eligibles: 6

It looks like Boise State and San Diego State will face off in the MWC Championship Game, and the winner will be a formidable foe for a Pac-12 team in the Las Vegas Bowl.
Utah State was not expected to compete for a bowl this year, but the Aggies are one win away from bowl eligibility. Hawaii visits Logan this week, and USU should get that sixth win before finishing at Air Force.

As for the four-win teams, it will be a major surprise if either Air Force or UNLV wins out. The Falcons play at Boise State this week, and that should produce loss number seven. UNLV finishes with road games against New Mexico and Nevada.

Sun Belt
Bowl Eligible: 3 — Troy, Appalachian St., Georgia St.
5-Win Teams: 1 — Arkansas St.
4-Win Teams: New Mexico St., South Alabama, UL-Lafayette, UL-Monroe
Bowl Tie-ins: 5
Likely Bowl Eligibles: 6

Arkansas St. is 5-3 with three chances to win one more game. The Red Wolves host lowly Texas State this week and should become bowl eligible, before closing with a road game against UL-Monroe and a home game with Troy.

Two of the four 4-win teams should become bowl eligible, but there is not likely to be six openings for this league with five bowl tie-ins.

UL-Lafayette always seems to find its way to the Superdome in the postseason. The Ragin’ Cajuns have played in five bowls in their history, all of which were New Orleans Bowls. ULL must finish 2-1 against a slate of New Mexico State, Georgia Southern, and at Appalachian State, and their chances are better than 50-50 of winning twice.

UL-Monroe and South Alabama have very tough roads to close out the year. ULM merely must win at Auburn or at Florida State and then take care of Arkansas State at home in order to finish 6-6. USA should win at Georgia Southern this week, but their finale at New Mexico State looks very difficult.

As for New Mexico State, the Aggies need to go 2-1 against UL-Lafayette, Idaho, and South Alabama. We believe NMSU will get those two wins, but then the league will not lobby for the Aggies to get a bowl bid, as they will be leaving the Sun Belt after this season. This league has spurned teams leaving the conference in the past, most recently Middle Tennessee, when the Blue Raiders left for CUSA.

Independents
Note–Notre Dame will not be included in this section, as they count in the ACC bowl section.

Bowl Eligible: 1 — Army
Army is 8-2, and the Black Knights are Armed Forces Bowl.

Power 5 Conferences
Atlantic Coast
Bowl Eligible: 8 — Clemson, North Carolina St., Wake Forest, Louisville, Miami (Fla.), Virginia Tech, Virginia + Notre Dame
5-Win Teams: 2 — Boston College, Georgia Tech
4-Win Teams: 3 — Syracuse, Duke, Pittsburgh
3-Win Team: 1 — Florida St.
Bowl Tie-ins: 9
Likely Bowl Eligible: 10

Miami or Clemson is likely to make the Playoffs.

Clemson and Miami will play in the ACC Championship Game, and the winner stands an excellent chance of making it to the Playoffs. Notre Dame is still alive for a NY6 Bowl, but the slaughter at the hands of Miami has ended the Irish’s chances of making the Playoffs. Notre Dame still has a road game against Stanford, and the home game with Navy is no sure thing, so there is a rather possible chance that the Irish will lose for a third time and be relegated to a non-NY6 Bowl.

Boston College gets a chance to become bowl eligible at the best venue in the Boston area. The Eagles face off against U Conn at Fenway Park. BC finishes with a road game against Syracuse. We believe the Eagles will be bowl bound this year.
5-4 Georgia Tech plays just 11 games thanks to the hurricane. The Yellow Jackets most likely must win at Duke this week, as they finish against Georgia in two weeks.

Syracuse, Duke, and Pittsburgh are all 4-6. We do not believe any of the three will finish 2-0 to become bowl eligible. Syracuse plays at Louisville this week, and the Cardinals should send the Orange to their seventh loss, making the home finale with Boston College inconsequential. Duke has to beat Georgia Tech and Wake Forest to get to 6-6, and even though they would be the top APR team at 5-7, we believe there will be 80 bowl eligible teams for the 78 bowls, meaning no 5-7 teams will get a chance to bowl this season. Pitt is staring at 4-8 with games against Virginia Tech and Miami to close out a forgettable 2017 season.

Florida St. is 3-6, and until they hurried to reschedule their hurricane-cancelling game with UL-Monroe, it looked like they would have no chance to get to six wins. The Seminoles will handle Delaware State with ease this week, and then they must beat rival Florida in Gainesville, before the makeup game with UL-Monroe will mean something. There is a good chance the Seminoles will accomplish the feat.

Big 12
Bowl Eligible: 4 — Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., TCU, West Virginia
5-Win Teams: 4 — Iowa State, Texas, Kansas State, and Texas Tech
4-Win Teams: 0
Bowl Tie-ins: 6
Likely Bowl Eligibles: 7

Oklahoma is heavily favored to win out and earn a Playoff spot. TCU and Oklahoma State could both receive NY6 bowl bids, which would then leave the Big 12 two teams short and allow two at-large teams to fill the last two bowls in the pecking order.

Oklahoma should wrap up a spot in the Big 12 Playoffs with a game against Kansas this week. The other spot is still up for grabs. Oklahoma State, TCU, and West Virginia are tied at 5-2, while Iowa State and Texas are 4-3. Our money is on TCU to win at Texas Tech and at home against Baylor, and the Horned Frogs would hold the tiebreaker over OSU and WVU.

Of the four 5-win teams, one will most definitely fall short, finishing 5-7. Texas Tech and Texas face uphill climbs this week against favored opponents, and the Red Raiders and Longhorns close out in Austin on Black Friday, where the winner will be 6-6.

Big Ten
Bowl Eligible: 7 — Ohio St., Penn St., Michigan St., Michigan, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Iowa
5-Win Teams: 1 — Minnesota
4-Win Teams: 5 — Indiana, Maryland, Rutgers, Purdue, Nebraska
Bowl Tie-ins: 8
Likely Bowl Eligibles: 7

Wisconsin has a good chance of making the Playoffs, while one other team should earn a NY6 bowl bid. This would leave three Big Ten bowls without a league team.

Wisconsin has clinched a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game, while Ohio State is the overwhelming favorite to back into the title game. Michigan could beat the Buckeyes at the Big House in the season-ender, but unless the Wolverines knock off Wisconsin at Camp Randall this week, beating OSU will not get them to the Championship Game.

Minnesota closes with Northwestern in Evanston and Wisconsin in Minneapolis, so it looks like the Gophers may fall to 5-7. As for the five, 4-6 teams, we cannot find a path for any of the quintet to finish 2-0.

Pac-12
Bowl Eligible: 5 — Washington, Washington St., Stanford, USC, Arizona
5-Win Teams: 6 — Oregon, California, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah, UCLA
4-Win Teams: 0
Bowl Tie-ins: 6
Likely Bowl Eligibles: 9

Two from among the current Bowl Eligible teams are likely headed to NY6 bowls, so there should be one extra bowl eligible team to be sent elsewhere to an at-large bid.

If Stanford beats Cal this week, then Washington State would win the North Division with a win over Washington, while Stanford would win the division if Washington beat Washington State. If Cal beats Stanford, then the Wash-WSU winner would win the division.

USC has won the South Division title, and the Trojans have improved enough since October, that they should be considered favorites over any of the three North contenders.

Half of the league currently have five wins. We believe that four of the six will get the sixth win. Oregon finishes with Arizona and Oregon State at home, and the Ducks have a great chance to return to a bowl. Either Colorado or Utah is guaranteed to make a bowl, because one will have to win their encounter. The same goes for UCLA and Califirnia. Arizona State plays at Oregon State before hosting Arizona, and the Sun Devils should get win number six.

SEC
Bowl Eligible: 8 — Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi St., Texas A&M, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina
5-Win Teams: 1 — Missouri (Ole Miss is 5-5 but ineligible)
4-Win Teams: 3 — Arkansas, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Bowl Tie-ins: 9
Likely Bowl Eligibles: 9

Alabama is almost certain to make the Playoffs, while Georgia is likely to earn a NY 6 Bowl Bid. That would leave the SEC two teams short in their bowl obligations.

Alabama only needs to show up to beat Mercer this week, and then the Tide has to finish at Auburn. Auburn can win the West Division by pulling off the big upset over Alabama.

LSU and Mississippi State should both get to nine wins, while South Carolina is an upset away over Clemson from becoming the sixth nine-win team from the league.

Missouri gets to play 0-6 Vandy and 1-5 Arkansas, so the Tigers should be 6-6 if not 7-5.
We do not expect any of the three 4-6 teams to win out and become bowl eligible.

 

October 19, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for October 19-21, 2017

The Captain has been shanghaied by the lasses.  After a couple weeks of total failure, the Captain handed over the controls of the PiRate Ship to us ladies, because, as he said, “Hey, you cannot do any worse than me.”

Actually, the Captain is enjoying the fruits of his labors as a baseball analytics specialist, and the thoughts of having the first Yankees-Dodgers World Series in 36 years (and as he stated, first legit season in 39 years) has sent him ahoy to dry land for the weekend.

Every week, the Captain prefaces this edition with the warning that you should not actually wager real money, or what goes for real money, on our parlay selections.  Readers, today, this edition of picks comes 100% from five women.

What can women know about football?  As the Captain says, if playing or coaching football made the men involved total experts, they would have all retired a long time ago and made even more money draining the sports books.  It just doesn’t happen.  Actually, the top experts are usually some professor at Cal Tech or MIT with a long computer program that spits out teams that when wagered on, return profits about 5 out of 8 times.

I am here to tell you that the 5 women contributing to this submission today probably have more actual football experience than the Cal Tech and MIT professors.  It may have been from Powder Puff College Football playing with Tri-Delt or Delta Gamma, but we know the game.

That doesn’t mean we know anything about picking winners, so be forewarned.  We went on intuition and other feminine instincts, and we came up with four parlays.  The only advice we received from the Captain was that we should limit our parlays to a max of 4 games, and the parlay calculator had to return a value better than +120.  We did both.

As for last week, need you ask?  The Captain issued just two parlays, and both lost.  For the season his return is -30%.  If we win this week, we just might mutiny and take over control of our vessel.

#1 @ +142  
Must Win Must Lose
Northwestern Iowa
Minnesota Illinois
#2 @ +169  
Must Win Must Lose
Arkansas St. UL-Lafayette
Notre Dame USC
LSU Ole Miss
#3 @ +127  
Must Win Must Lose
Houston Memphis
Penn St. Michigan
#4 @ +132  
Must Win Must Lose
UAB Charlotte
Purdue Rutgers
Duke Pittsburgh

Good luck.  You’ll need it if you play our parlays.  Shame on you if you wager the paper that they say is real money on these selections.  If you want to gift away $400, you can send it to my Patreon page.

October 16, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for October 19-21, 2017

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:52 am

This week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Arkansas St. Louisiana-Lafayette 9.0 8.7 10.4
Houston Memphis 0.4 0.6 0.1
Old Dominion Western Kentucky -8.3 -5.2 -9.3
Middle Tennessee Marshall -1.8 -2.2 -3.0
Nevada Air Force -2.8 -1.4 -1.4
New Mexico Colorado St. -12.0 -11.0 -11.5
Army Temple 8.3 7.8 9.1
Wisconsin Maryland 24.0 18.8 22.7
Texas Tech Iowa St. 0.7 -0.1 -1.0
Toledo Akron 15.0 12.3 15.4
Missouri Idaho 16.4 12.4 14.6
Northwestern Iowa 4.2 2.4 4.6
Connecticut Tulsa -11.3 -8.5 -10.9
Florida St. Louisville 13.9 13.3 13.1
Rutgers Purdue -6.2 -5.9 -7.4
Duke Pittsburgh 7.3 5.9 6.8
Virginia Boston College 6.3 5.6 7.0
Georgia St. Troy -5.0 -5.9 -4.3
Eastern Michigan Western Michigan -0.7 0.0 -1.6
Ohio U Kent St. 14.1 14.2 14.5
Bowling Green Northern Illinois -5.6 -4.4 -5.4
Miami (O) Buffalo 7.3 6.8 6.2
Ball St. Central Michigan -12.4 -11.0 -11.7
Minnesota Illinois 19.7 19.1 20.7
Virginia Tech North Carolina 18.4 18.7 20.0
Michigan St. Indiana 1.5 3.5 1.6
Alabama Tennessee 37.4 34.7 38.2
Appalachian St. Coastal Carolina 30.8 27.5 29.5
Navy Central Florida -11.4 -12.6 -12.5
Miami (Fla.) Syracuse 13.7 13.3 13.9
Massachusetts Georgia Southern 10.5 8.3 10.9
Utah Arizona St. 4.4 7.0 4.9
Kansas St. Oklahoma -6.6 -5.6 -7.0
TCU Kansas 42.5 37.0 44.1
Texas Oklahoma St. -7.9 -6.1 -8.5
UCLA Oregon 0.1 2.1 0.5
Cincinnati SMU -9.3 -7.2 -8.5
Mississippi St. Kentucky -0.3 1.4 0.6
South Alabama Louisiana-Monroe 8.0 9.8 9.2
Florida Atlantic North Texas 8.7 10.0 9.3
UNLV Utah St. -3.1 0.0 -2.4
Charlotte UAB 1.7 0.5 -0.2
Tulane South Florida -14.1 -12.5 -14.8
UTSA Rice 19.8 20.7 21.2
Louisiana Tech Southern Miss. 3.6 4.0 4.2
East Carolina BYU -9.0 -6.7 -9.0
Ole Miss LSU -6.3 -6.1 -8.6
Arkansas Auburn -18.6 -17.2 -19.1
Georgia Tech Wake Forest 11.7 10.6 10.5
Penn St. Michigan 18.2 15.9 19.9
Notre Dame USC 2.3 1.5 3.2
Baylor West Virginia -8.3 -7.0 -8.7
California Arizona 3.9 2.7 3.3
Boise St. Wyoming 11.3 10.9 12.4
San Diego St. Fresno St. 9.4 11.0 9.7
Washington St. Colorado 10.7 9.8 12.6

This Week’s PiRate Ratings 

Retrodictive Ratings–Ranks the teams based on what they have done to date.  This rating is better to gauge what the teams have done so far rather than how they might fare going forward.

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team Rating
1 Alabama 132.7
2 Penn St. 130.8
3 Georgia 130.6
4 TCU 129.3
5 Clemson 128.7
6 Ohio St. 128.5
7 Wisconsin 127.9
8 Miami (Fla) 127.0
9 Notre Dame 126.7
10 USC 126.4
11 Central Florida 126.2
12 Washington 125.8
13 Oklahoma St. 125.1
14 Oklahoma 124.9
15 Stanford 124.2
16 Michigan St. 123.7
17 Michigan 123.3
18 North Carolina St. 123.0
19 Washington St. 122.2
20 Virginia Tech 121.6
21 South Florida 121.5
22 Texas A&M 121.2
23 Auburn 120.8
24 Iowa 119.9
25 San Diego St. 119.4
26 Mississippi St. 118.9
27 Florida St. 118.8
28 Memphis 118.6
29 Wake Forest 117.3
30 Texas Tech 116.8
31 West Virginia 116.4
32 LSU 116.3
33 Kentucky 116.1
34 Boise St. 115.9
35 Navy 115.2
36 South Carolina 114.7
37 Virginia 113.8
38 Toledo 113.1
39 Iowa St. 112.0
40 Utah 110.9
41 Oregon 110.5
42 California 110.1
43 Texas 110.0
44 Arizona St. 109.8
45 Georgia Tech 109.5
46 Florida 109.2
47 Louisville 108.7
48 Arizona 108.5
49 Purdue 107.7
50 Northwestern 107.4
51 Houston 106.9
52 Duke 106.3
53 Colorado St. 105.8
54 Indiana 104.6
55 Syracuse 103.9
56 UCLA 103.4
57 Marshall 103.2
58 Western Michigan 103.1
59 Fresno St. 103.0
60 Colorado 102.8
61 Minnesota 102.1
62 SMU 101.8
63 Maryland 101.6
64 Northern Illinois 101.5
65 Boston College 100.9
66 Appalachian St. 100.4
67 Troy 100.0
68 Kansas St. 99.7
69 Army 98.6
70 Ole Miss 97.2
71 North Texas 97.1
72 Tennessee 96.7
73 Nebraska 96.4
74 Louisiana Tech 96.3
75 Vanderbilt 95.6
76 Southern Miss. 95.2
77 Florida Atlantic 95.0
78 Tulane 94.8
79 Akron 94.6
80 Wyoming 94.5
81 Arkansas 92.9
82 Ohio 92.8
83 Western Kentucky 92.6
84 Air Force 92.0
85 Arkansas St. 91.8
86 Tulsa 91.7
87 Pittsburgh 91.3
88 New Mexico 91.1
89 UTSA 90.7
90 Temple 90.2
91 Utah St. 89.9
92 North Carolina 89.5
93 Buffalo 89.3
94 Florida Int’l. 88.7
95 UAB 88.1
96 Middle Tennessee 87.0
97 Cincinnati 85.7
98 Rutgers 85.1
99 New Mexico St. 84.2
100 Eastern Michigan 83.9
101 UL-Monroe 83.6
102 Georgia St. 83.4
103 UL-Lafayette 81.9
104 Illinois 81.2
105 UNLV 81.0
106 Central Michigan 80.7
107 Miami (O) 80.5
108 Baylor 80.4
109 Missouri 80.4
110 South Alabama 80.3
111 Oregon St. 79.9
112 Hawaii 79.7
113 BYU 79.6
114 Connecticut 79.5
115 Idaho 79.4
116 Nevada 78.9
117 Kent St. 78.7
118 Old Dominion 78.1
119 East Carolina 77.8
120 Bowling Green 77.5
121 Ball St. 77.0
122 Kansas 76.2
123 Rice 75.7
124 Georgia Southern 75.3
125 Massachusetts 75.1
126 Coastal Carolina 74.6
127 San Jose St. 74.2
128 UTEP 73.5
129 Texas St. 72.6
130 Charlotte 71.9

Predictive Ratings–This rating is a forward-looking rating trying to predict the outcome of future games.  Unlike other predictive ratings, ours are geared toward only each teams’ next game, because we adjust our ratings based on many factors that cannot be reflected just from the score of the games.  A team that is predicted to win by 14 points that wins by exactly 14 points might be expected to retain an identical rating the following week, but we adjust for things like depth, how the score became a 14-point victory, how the teams’ past opponents fared during the week (more weight given to recent games than early games), etc.

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 138.7 134.4 137.5 136.9
2 Ohio St. 135.6 133.0 135.5 134.7
3 Penn St. 128.7 126.6 129.6 128.3
4 Washington 127.0 124.3 127.4 126.2
5 Clemson 127.2 124.6 126.7 126.2
6 Georgia 125.5 125.9 125.9 125.8
7 Oklahoma St. 124.7 123.4 125.7 124.6
8 Auburn 124.7 122.7 124.7 124.0
9 Florida St. 122.8 121.4 121.6 122.0
10 Oklahoma 121.9 120.8 122.3 121.7
11 Miami 121.9 119.8 121.3 121.0
12 Wisconsin 121.9 118.5 120.5 120.3
13 Stanford 120.9 119.5 120.3 120.2
14 T C U 120.8 118.4 121.3 120.1
15 U S C 119.1 118.4 118.9 118.8
16 Virginia Tech 118.9 118.3 119.2 118.8
17 N. Carolina St. 118.1 117.4 118.2 117.9
18 Notre Dame 117.9 116.5 118.6 117.6
19 Washington St. 116.3 113.8 115.9 115.3
20 Georgia Tech 116.4 113.9 115.0 115.1
21 L S U 114.8 113.0 115.4 114.4
22 Texas 113.7 114.3 114.2 114.1
23 Central Florida 112.9 114.3 114.3 113.9
24 Michigan 114.0 114.2 113.2 113.8
25 Florida 113.8 112.9 113.0 113.2
26 South Florida 112.3 111.0 113.5 112.3
27 Kansas St. 112.3 112.2 112.2 112.2
28 Louisville 111.9 111.1 111.6 111.5
29 Northwestern 111.3 109.6 111.4 110.8
30 Kentucky 111.2 110.0 110.5 110.6
31 West Virginia 110.2 110.7 110.5 110.5
32 Syracuse 111.1 109.5 110.4 110.3
33 Iowa 110.0 110.2 109.8 110.0
34 Iowa State 108.9 109.4 109.9 109.4
35 Texas A&M 109.5 107.2 108.8 108.5
36 Mississippi St. 107.9 108.5 108.1 108.2
37 S. Carolina 108.1 107.1 107.2 107.5
38 Utah 106.7 108.3 106.9 107.3
39 Colorado 108.6 107.0 106.3 107.3
40 Duke 108.0 106.9 106.8 107.2
41 Wake Forest 107.7 106.3 107.5 107.1
42 Oregon 107.8 105.4 106.7 106.6
43 Texas Tech 106.6 106.3 105.9 106.3
44 Colo. State 106.1 104.9 106.2 105.7
45 Indiana 105.1 105.0 105.7 105.3
46 Virginia 105.3 104.6 105.8 105.3
47 Arizona St. 105.3 104.3 105.0 104.9
48 Minnesota 104.7 105.5 104.1 104.8
49 U C L A 105.0 104.5 104.2 104.6
50 California 105.8 103.4 104.1 104.4
51 Michigan St. 103.6 105.4 104.3 104.4
52 Ole Miss 105.5 103.9 103.8 104.4
53 Arizona 104.9 103.7 103.8 104.1
54 Memphis 104.3 103.7 104.5 104.1
55 Purdue 103.9 103.7 104.5 104.0
56 Pittsburgh 103.7 104.0 103.0 103.6
57 Boise St. 103.9 102.2 103.8 103.3
58 Tennessee 104.3 102.7 102.3 103.1
59 Arkansas 103.2 102.5 102.5 102.8
60 N. Carolina 103.4 102.6 102.2 102.7
61 Boston College 102.0 102.0 101.9 102.0
62 Vanderbilt 102.3 101.5 101.0 101.6
63 Houston 101.7 101.2 101.6 101.5
64 Maryland 101.0 102.7 100.8 101.5
65 Navy 101.2 101.9 101.3 101.4
66 San Diego St. 101.0 101.1 101.9 101.3
67 Nebraska 100.5 101.6 99.4 100.5
68 Toledo 99.4 99.4 100.6 99.8
69 Baylor 98.9 100.7 98.8 99.5
70 Western Michigan 99.4 98.2 100.5 99.4
71 SMU 98.5 98.7 98.9 98.7
72 Army 98.1 98.1 98.7 98.3
73 Tulsa 98.4 98.2 98.1 98.2
74 Appalachian St. 98.1 96.2 98.2 97.5
75 Eastern Michigan 95.7 95.2 95.9 95.6
76 Missouri 96.6 94.3 95.5 95.5
77 Tulane 95.2 95.4 95.7 95.4
78 Wyoming 95.6 94.3 94.4 94.7
79 Rutgers 94.7 94.8 94.1 94.5
80 Fresno St. 94.5 93.1 95.2 94.3
81 U T S A 92.9 94.9 94.4 94.0
82 Troy 93.3 93.6 92.6 93.2
83 W. Kentucky 92.6 92.1 93.7 92.8
84 Florida Atlantic 91.4 94.1 92.7 92.7
85 Oregon St. 93.0 92.7 91.6 92.4
86 Marshall 91.3 92.7 93.1 92.4
87 Air Force 92.1 92.7 92.3 92.4
88 Temple 92.2 92.8 92.1 92.4
89 BYU 92.1 91.7 91.7 91.8
90 Arkansas St. 90.8 92.1 92.3 91.7
91 Utah St. 92.2 91.3 91.7 91.7
92 Ohio U 90.9 92.3 91.6 91.6
93 New Mexico 91.1 90.9 91.7 91.2
94 Northern Illinois 90.6 90.4 91.3 90.7
95 Miami (O) 89.6 91.6 90.8 90.7
96 Louisiana Tech 88.7 90.3 89.6 89.6
97 Central Michigan 88.9 89.7 89.4 89.3
98 Akron 88.0 90.5 88.7 89.1
99 N. Mexico St. 88.5 86.5 88.8 87.9
100 Illinois 87.9 89.4 86.4 87.9
101 Cincinnati 86.7 88.9 87.9 87.8
102 Southern Miss. 87.1 88.4 87.5 87.6
103 Middle Tennessee 87.0 88.0 87.6 87.5
104 Nevada 86.3 88.3 87.9 87.5
105 S. Alabama 86.5 89.0 86.8 87.4
106 U N L V 86.6 88.8 86.8 87.4
107 Buffalo 85.4 87.7 87.6 86.9
108 N. Texas 85.7 87.1 86.3 86.4
109 Hawaii 86.0 87.0 85.8 86.3
110 Georgia St. 85.8 85.2 85.8 85.6
111 UL-Lafayette 84.9 86.3 84.9 85.4
112 Massachusetts 85.6 84.9 85.5 85.3
113 Connecticut 84.1 86.7 84.2 85.0
114 Idaho 83.2 84.9 84.0 84.0
115 Florida Int’l. 83.5 83.8 84.3 83.9
116 Old Dominion 82.3 85.0 82.3 83.2
117 Bowling Green 82.6 83.5 83.3 83.1
118 Kansas 81.2 84.4 80.2 82.0
119 UL-Monroe 81.0 81.7 80.0 80.9
120 East Carolina 79.6 81.5 79.2 80.1
121 Kent St. 79.2 80.7 79.6 79.8
122 Georgia Southern 77.5 79.1 77.1 77.9
123 San Jose St. 76.7 76.8 76.0 76.5
124 Rice 75.1 76.2 75.2 75.5
125 Ball St. 74.0 76.2 75.2 75.1
126 UAB 72.4 75.8 74.5 74.2
127 Charlotte 72.1 74.3 72.3 72.9
128 U T E P 71.8 74.8 72.0 72.9
129 Texas St. 70.4 72.8 69.2 70.8
130 Coastal Carolina 69.8 71.2 71.1 70.7

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Central Florida 3-0 5-0 112.9 114.3 114.3 113.9
South Florida 3-0 6-0 112.3 111.0 113.5 112.3
Temple 1-3 3-4 92.2 92.8 92.1 92.4
Cincinnati 0-3 2-5 86.7 88.9 87.9 87.8
Connecticut 1-3 2-4 84.1 86.7 84.2 85.0
East Carolina 1-3 1-6 79.6 81.5 79.2 80.1
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 2-1 5-1 104.3 103.7 104.5 104.1
Houston 2-1 4-2 101.7 101.2 101.6 101.5
Navy 3-1 5-1 101.2 101.9 101.3 101.4
SMU 1-1 4-2 98.5 98.7 98.9 98.7
Tulsa 1-2 2-5 98.4 98.2 98.1 98.2
Tulane 1-1 3-3 95.2 95.4 95.7 95.4
             
AAC Averages     97.3 97.8 97.6 97.6
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 4-1 6-1 127.2 124.6 126.7 126.2
Florida St. 2-2 2-3 122.8 121.4 121.6 122.0
N. Carolina St. 4-0 6-1 118.1 117.4 118.2 117.9
Louisville 1-3 4-3 111.9 111.1 111.6 111.5
Syracuse 2-1 4-3 111.1 109.5 110.4 110.3
Wake Forest 1-2 4-2 107.7 106.3 107.5 107.1
Boston College 1-3 3-4 102.0 102.0 101.9 102.0
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 3-0 5-0 121.9 119.8 121.3 121.0
Virginia Tech 1-1 5-1 118.9 118.3 119.2 118.8
Georgia Tech 2-1 3-2 116.4 113.9 115.0 115.1
Duke 1-3 4-3 108.0 106.9 106.8 107.2
Virginia 2-0 5-1 105.3 104.6 105.8 105.3
Pittsburgh 0-3 2-5 103.7 104.0 103.0 103.6
N. Carolina 0-4 1-6 103.4 102.6 102.2 102.7
             
ACC Averages     112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma St. 2-1 5-1 124.7 123.4 125.7 124.6
Oklahoma 2-1 5-1 121.9 120.8 122.3 121.7
T C U 3-0 6-0 120.8 118.4 121.3 120.1
Texas 2-1 3-3 113.7 114.3 114.2 114.1
Kansas St. 1-2 3-3 112.3 112.2 112.2 112.2
West Virginia 2-1 4-2 110.2 110.7 110.5 110.5
Iowa State 2-1 4-2 108.9 109.4 109.9 109.4
Texas Tech 1-2 4-2 106.6 106.3 105.9 106.3
Baylor 0-3 0-6 98.9 100.7 98.8 99.5
Kansas 0-3 1-5 81.2 84.4 80.2 82.0
             
Big 12 Averages     109.9 110.1 110.1 110.0
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 4-0 6-1 135.6 133.0 135.5 134.7
Penn St. 3-0 6-0 128.7 126.6 129.6 128.3
Michigan 2-1 5-1 114.0 114.2 113.2 113.8
Indiana 0-3 3-3 105.1 105.0 105.7 105.3
Michigan St. 3-0 5-1 103.6 105.4 104.3 104.4
Maryland 1-2 3-3 101.0 102.7 100.8 101.5
Rutgers 1-2 2-4 94.7 94.8 94.1 94.5
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 3-0 6-0 121.9 118.5 120.5 120.3
Northwestern 1-2 3-3 111.3 109.6 111.4 110.8
Iowa 1-2 4-2 110.0 110.2 109.8 110.0
Minnesota 0-3 3-3 104.7 105.5 104.1 104.8
Purdue 1-2 3-3 103.9 103.7 104.5 104.0
Nebraska 2-2 3-4 100.5 101.6 99.4 100.5
Illinois 0-3 2-4 87.9 89.4 86.4 87.9
             
Big Ten Averages     108.8 108.6 108.5 108.6
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
W. Kentucky 2-1 4-2 92.6 92.1 93.7 92.8
Florida Atlantic 2-0 3-3 91.4 94.1 92.7 92.7
Marshall 2-0 5-1 91.3 92.7 93.1 92.4
Middle Tennessee 1-2 3-4 87.0 88.0 87.6 87.5
Florida Int’l. 2-1 4-2 83.5 83.8 84.3 83.9
Old Dominion 0-2 2-4 82.3 85.0 82.3 83.2
Charlotte 0-3 0-7 72.1 74.3 72.3 72.9
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 0-2 3-2 92.9 94.9 94.4 94.0
Louisiana Tech 1-1 3-3 88.7 90.3 89.6 89.6
Southern Miss. 2-1 4-2 87.1 88.4 87.5 87.6
N. Texas 3-0 4-2 85.7 87.1 86.3 86.4
Rice 1-1 1-5 75.1 76.2 75.2 75.5
U T E P 0-3 0-7 71.8 74.8 72.0 72.9
UAB 2-1 4-2 72.4 75.8 74.5 74.2
             
CUSA Averages     83.9 85.5 84.7 84.7
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   5-1 117.9 116.5 118.6 117.6
Army   5-2 98.1 98.1 98.7 98.3
BYU   1-6 92.1 91.7 91.7 91.8
Massachusetts   0-6 85.6 84.9 85.5 85.3
             
Indep. Averages     98.4 97.8 98.6 98.3
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio U 2-1 5-2 92.0 93.3 92.8 92.7
Miami (O) 1-2 2-5 88.2 90.3 89.3 89.3
Akron 3-0 4-3 88.0 90.5 88.7 89.1
Buffalo 1-2 3-4 85.4 87.7 87.6 86.9
Bowling Green 1-2 1-6 81.5 82.5 82.1 82.0
Kent St. 1-2 2-5 80.3 81.7 80.8 80.9
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 2-0 5-1 100.6 100.5 101.9 101.0
Western Michigan 2-1 4-3 99.4 98.2 100.5 99.4
Eastern Michigan 0-2 2-4 95.9 95.5 96.3 95.9
Northern Illinois 2-0 4-2 90.9 90.7 91.6 91.0
Central Michigan 1-2 3-4 87.7 88.6 88.1 88.1
Ball St. 0-2 2-4 74.2 76.4 75.4 75.3
             
MAC Averages     88.7 89.7 89.6 89.3
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Colo. State 3-0 5-2 106.1 104.9 106.2 105.7
Boise St. 2-0 4-2 103.9 102.2 103.8 103.3
Wyoming 2-0 4-2 95.6 94.3 94.4 94.7
Air Force 1-2 2-4 92.1 92.7 92.3 92.4
Utah St. 1-2 3-4 92.2 91.3 91.7 91.7
New Mexico 1-2 3-3 91.1 90.9 91.7 91.2
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 2-1 6-1 101.0 101.1 101.9 101.3
Fresno St. 3-0 4-2 94.5 93.1 95.2 94.3
Nevada 1-2 1-6 86.3 88.3 87.9 87.5
U N L V 1-2 2-4 86.6 88.8 86.8 87.4
Hawaii 1-3 3-4 86.0 87.0 85.8 86.3
San Jose St. 0-4 1-7 76.7 76.8 76.0 76.5
             
MWC Averages     92.7 92.6 92.8 92.7
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 3-1 6-1 127.0 124.3 127.4 126.2
Stanford 4-1 5-2 120.9 119.5 120.3 120.2
Washington St. 3-1 6-1 116.3 113.8 115.9 115.3
Oregon 1-3 4-3 107.8 105.4 106.7 106.6
California 1-3 4-3 105.8 103.4 104.1 104.4
Oregon St. 0-4 1-6 93.0 92.7 91.6 92.4
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 4-1 6-1 119.1 118.4 118.9 118.8
Utah 1-2 4-2 106.7 108.3 106.9 107.3
Colorado 1-3 4-3 108.6 107.0 106.3 107.3
Arizona St. 2-1 3-3 105.3 104.3 105.0 104.9
U C L A 1-2 3-3 105.0 104.5 104.2 104.6
Arizona 2-1 4-2 104.9 103.7 103.8 104.1
             
Pac-12 Averages     110.0 108.8 109.3 109.4
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 4-0 7-0 125.5 125.9 125.9 125.8
Florida 3-2 3-3 113.8 112.9 113.0 113.2
Kentucky 2-1 5-1 111.2 110.0 110.5 110.6
S. Carolina 3-2 5-2 108.1 107.1 107.2 107.5
Tennessee 0-3 3-3 104.3 102.7 102.3 103.1
Vanderbilt 0-4 3-4 102.3 101.5 101.0 101.6
Missouri 0-4 1-5 96.6 94.3 95.5 95.5
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 4-0 7-0 138.7 134.4 137.5 136.9
Auburn 3-1 5-2 124.7 122.7 124.7 124.0
L S U 2-1 5-2 114.8 113.0 115.4 114.4
Texas A&M 3-1 5-2 109.5 107.2 108.8 108.5
Mississippi St. 1-2 4-2 107.9 108.5 108.1 108.2
Ole Miss 1-2 3-3 105.5 103.9 103.8 104.4
Arkansas 0-3 2-4 103.2 102.5 102.5 102.8
             
SEC Averages     111.9 110.5 111.2 111.2
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 3-0 4-2 98.1 96.2 98.2 97.5
Troy 1-1 4-2 93.3 93.6 92.6 93.2
Arkansas St. 2-0 3-2 90.8 92.1 92.3 91.7
N. Mexico St. 1-2 3-4 88.5 86.5 88.8 87.9
S. Alabama 1-1 2-4 86.5 89.0 86.8 87.4
Georgia St. 2-0 3-2 85.8 85.2 85.8 85.6
UL-Lafayette 2-1 3-3 84.9 86.3 84.9 85.4
Idaho 1-2 2-4 83.2 84.9 84.0 84.0
UL-Monroe 3-1 3-3 81.0 81.7 80.0 80.9
Georgia Southern 0-2 0-5 77.5 79.1 77.1 77.9
Texas St. 0-3 1-6 70.4 72.8 69.2 70.8
Coastal Carolina 0-3 1-5 69.8 71.2 71.1 70.7
             
Sun Belt Averages     84.2 84.9 84.2 84.4

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
2 SEC 111.9 110.5 111.2 111.2
3 BIG 12 109.9 110.1 110.1 110.0
4 PAC-12 110.0 108.8 109.3 109.4
5 BIG TEN 108.8 108.6 108.5 108.6
6 INDEP. 98.4 97.8 98.6 98.3
7 AAC 97.3 97.8 97.6 97.6
8 MWC 92.7 92.6 92.8 92.7
9 MAC 88.6 89.6 89.5 89.3
10 CUSA 83.9 85.5 84.7 84.7
11 Sun Belt 84.2 84.9 84.2 84.4

Bowl Projections

You probably see bowl projections from many sites, and from what we have learned, many of them just throw teams into the slots based on how they think in their head without really looking at the remaining schedules and then plotting how the committees will allot teams.

The PiRates project the won-loss records of all 130 teams every week, and then look at the bowls as the committees and leagues would look at them.  Thus, ours are always going to be a bit unique and will not follow in lockstep with the big sites where they really do not have a lot of time to devote to this task.  This feature actually takes up more time than anything else we do other than our college basketball March Madness submissions.

Thus, rather than just state the bowl projections this week, how about we explain our selections.  Also, we apologize for all the abbreviations, but apparently many of you that use your phone to access our site cannot read this feature unless we do so.  Tabular data can be difficult at times to display in an aesthetically brilliant manner.

American Athletic Conference

Central Florida and South Florida could be heading to an incredible final regular season game, where the winner not only takes the East Division title, but they enter AAC Championship play undefeated as the odds-on favorite to snag the New Year’s 6 Bowl invitation.  If by some strange possibility that there are less than three one-loss or undefeated Power 5 conference teams, then an undefeated UCF or USF might have an outside shot at making the playoffs.

In the West, Houston, Memphis, and Navy look to vie for the division flag, with SMU also an outside possibility.  We like the Cougars to cop that flag, mostly because they host Memphis this week and should bounce back with their best game of the month.

Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 6

Result: With the AAC Champion predicted to make the NY6 bowl, this league needs 8 bowl eligible teams to fill its contracts, so having just 6 bowl eligible teams will open up two bowls (Birmingham & Gasparilla) to at-large entries.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Clemson’s loss to Syracuse doesn’t end the Tigers’ shot at defending their national title, as this loss was about on par with last year’s loss to Pittsburgh.  However, in order to get there, CU must win out, and that includes having to beat NC State in Raleigh and then the Coastal Division champion in the ACC Championship Game.  At this point, our belief is that it will not happen for the Tigers this season.

Miami has survived close games against Florida State and Georgia Tech the last two weeks.  The Hurricanes have to fend off Virginia Tech and the up and coming Virginia Cavaliers, and we think Mark Richt’s team will be able to make it to the ACC Championship Game.

For the time being, our belief is that North Carolina State will hold off Clemson and then take out Miami to win the ACC Championship, but we also believe the Wolf Pack will lose one conference game, leaving them with a record of 11-2, which will keep them out of the playoffs.

Notre Dame figures in the ACC Bowl Tie-ins, as the Irish can trump any ACC team that has just one more victory than they do.  In other words, if Virginia goes 10-2, and Notre Dame goes 9-3, the Irish can jump over the Cavs in the bowl pecking order.

As of today, we have Notre Dame pegged for a 10-2 finish, which will not give them a good enough slate to make the playoffs, but it will put them in the NY6 Bowl group.

Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 11 (which includes Notre Dame)

Result: Under this scenario, NC State would earn the Orange Bowl bid as the ACC Champion.  Notre Dame and one other team (Miami is our choice this week) would receive NY6 Bowls, while Clemson would fall to the Citrus Bowl.  Under this scenario, the ACC-Notre Dame alliance would actually need 12 bowl eligible teams, while they would have just 11 bowl eligible teams.  This would open up the Quick Lane Bowl for an at-large team.

Big 12

This is going to be highly ironic for this league.  The Big 12 kept losing out in the playoff picture due to a lack of having a conference championship game like the ACC, Big Ten, Pac-12, and SEC.  This year, there will be a Big 12 Championship Game, but unlike the others, it will pit the number one versus the number two team in the standings.  Since the Big 12 teams all play each other, it guarantees a rematch for the title game.  There is just enough parity in this league this year that the number one team can sweep the number two team or vice versa.  Thus, the conference championship game could be the one factor that keeps the Big 12 out of the playoffs.  Yes, ironic indeed.

TCU is the lone unbeaten left in the league, but the Horned Frogs would have to win at Oklahoma and then beat one of the Oklahoma teams a second time in order to make the playoffs.  There are scenarios were TCU could lose to Oklahoma in the regular season and then win the Big 12 Championship Game and squeak into the playoffs, but for now, we believe there might be another scenario.  We currently project Oklahoma State to win out, including beating Oklahoma and then taking TCU in the rematch for the conference title.  At 12-1, we show Oklahoma State to be the #4 team entering the playoffs.

Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 7

Result: With Oklahoma State going to the Playoffs, and with the possibility that both Oklahoma and TCU could have two losses at the end of the season, we project no other conference team to receive a bid to a NY6 bowl.  With 7 projected bowl eligible teams, the league would have exactly the number needed to furnish its bowl obligations.

We came up with 7 bowl eligible teams, because we believe that two teams from among Iowa State, Kansas State, and Texas Tech will get to 6 wins, while one finishes 5-7.  For now, we believe there will be exactly 78 bowl eligible teams to fill the 78 slots, so no 5-7 teams will be needed to fill spots.

Big Ten

This is perhaps the most interesting league this year.  Ohio State lost early at home to Oklahoma, and the Buckeyes were dismissed as a potential title-contender.  Remember that Ohio State lost to Virginia Tech the year they won the national championship in the very first playoff season.  Since losing at home to the Sooners, Urban Meyer’s team has done exactly what his Florida team did in 2008 after losing at home to Ole Miss.

Penn State is the darling team in this league at the present time, and the Nittany Lions should handle Michigan this week.  However, James Franklin’s squad has road dates against Michigan State and Ohio State lurking.  We believe Penn State can win in East Lansing, but Ohio State will be almost impossible to beat in Columbus.  The Buckeyes have been looking forward to getting revenge over last year’s upset loss in Happy Valley, and we believe Ohio State will win convincingly and then run the table.

The end of that table could be the demise of an undefeated season for Wisconsin, much like Iowa falling to Penn State in last year’s Big Ten Championship Game.  If this happens, then both Penn State and Wisconsin will be one loss teams that both lost to a playoff team.  That, along with the huge fan bases, would be enough to propel both one-loss teams into NY6 bowls.

Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 9

Result: Putting Ohio State into the playoffs, and both Penn State and Wisconsin into NY6 bowls, the Big Ten would need 10 bowl eligible teams, while we project just 9 to make it.  Thus, the Armed Forces Bowl would need to find an at-large replacement.

Conference USA

Up to now, you have seen multiple bowls that will need at-large replacements for conferences that will not supply enough bowl-eligible teams, yet you have not seen us list a league with extra teams available.  CUSA is going to strike it rich this year, as this league should have quite an excess of bowl eligible teams after fulfilling the allotted contracts.

There is no overwhelming favorite in the league, even at the halfway point of the season.  Because of this, CUSA should produce double digit teams with at least 6 wins.

In the East, Western Kentucky is nothing like the 2016 Hilltopper team.  They are just starting to play good football, but it may be too late to win the division.  Middle Tennessee’s chances to win the division ended when star quarterback Brent Stockstill went down with an injury.  If he returns in time, the Blue Raiders can still salvage a 6-6 season.  Florida Atlantic and Florida International have shots at taking the division title, and both should become bowl eligible.

The team that the PiRates believe will win the East is Marshall.  Coach Doc Holliday is hands-down the best recruiter in the division and probably about equal with UTSA’s Frank Wilson for tops in the league.  Holliday could be on the radar of bigger schools if the Mountaineers take the conference title this year.

The West race is just as interesting.  North Texas and Louisiana Tech are the top two contenders, and the two teams play in Ruston on November 4.  We give LT the edge due to the home field advantage.

We have to mention possibly the most incredible feat of all, one that is going virtually unnoticed outside of the league.  UAB, a team that did not play for the past two years, returned to FBS football.  This was akin to SMU’s death penalty.  Nobody expected the Blazers to compete for bowl eligibility in their return to college football, with a 3-9 season considered the ceiling.  UAB not only figures to become bowl eligible, they are still in contention for the West Division title.  Coach Bill Clark needs to receive some National Coach of the Year votes for doing the almost impossible.  This is like a pro sports team expansion franchise making the playoffs in their first season.  Did you hear that Las Vegas Golden Knights fans?

Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 10

Result: With no real shot at the NY6 bowl, CUSA will have to make do with its six bowl tie-ins.  However, we show 10 bowl eligible teams.  And, thanks to the fact that we show more than four bowl bids up for grabs that will need at-large teams, we believe all 10 bowl eligible teams will find spots.  It is also very possible that two CUSA teams will have to face each other in a bowl game.

Independents

With Notre Dame included in the ACC bowl picture, this really only leaves Army in this discussion, since BYU and UMass will finish on the wrong side of .500.  This is rather cut and dry.  Army needs a 6-6 record to automatically earn a bid to the Armed Forces Bowl, one of the bowls that will most likely need to find an at-large opponent, most likely from CUSA.

Mid-American Conference

There is still a chance for Toledo to ascend to the top of the Group of 5 hierarchy and earn a NY6 bowl bid.  The Rockets only loss was at undefeated Miami of Florida, and should Jason Candles’ team win out, and USF and UCF both lose, then Toledo could sneak in at the end and grab a Peach Bowl spot.  If this happens, the MAC will still have enough bowl eligible teams left to satisfy its bowl obligations, but the more likely scenario is that Toledo will have to settle for a regular MAC bowl, and the league will have one extra team ready to grab an at-large bid.  The MAC has a secondary bowl agreement with the Quick Lane Bowl, and we project this bowl to need an at-large entry, so everything should work out for the MAC to get six bowl bids instead of 5.

Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 6

Result: Either Buffalo or Central Michigan figures to get to 6-6, and whichever team does will be rewarded with a trip to Detroit during the holidays.

Mountain West Conference

Boise State picked a fine time to look like the Broncos teams of 2006  and 2009.  Their pasting of San Diego State put this league behind the AAC and possibly the MAC in the race for the one NY6 Bowl for Group of 5 leagues.  Boise State has two losses, both to current one-loss teams, and that might be enough to limit the league to its regular five bids.

Because the West Division figures to have just two bowl eligible teams (San Diego State and Fresno State), the Mountain Division will need to supply three bowl eligible teams from among the parity in the division.  At this time, Air Force, Utah State and New Mexico have tough roads to get to 6-6, but Colorado State and Wyoming should join Boise State with enough wins.  In fact, this is still a three-team race for the division flag, and at the moment, we project Wyoming to win.

Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 5

Result: It will be interesting to see how the league will send its teams to the bowls this year, especially if Boise State and San Diego State both miss out on the title.  While the New Mexico and Hawaii Bowls are just fine with always inviting the home team, the Idaho Potato Bowl has been wont to invite somebody other than the Broncos to the field of blue.  We do not project New Mexico or Hawaii to become bowl eligible, so it should be quite interesting indeed to see where each league team goes after the champion gets the automatic bid to the Las Vegas Bowl.

Pac-12 Conference

This league took the biggest hit of all this past weekend when Washington and Washington State bowed out of the playoff race.  USC might still hold a slim chance of making it into the playoffs by winning out, which would include victories over Notre Dame in South Bend, Arizona State in Tempe, and Colorado in Boulder, plus the Conference Championship Game, but we do not forecast the Trojans to win out or even win the Pac-12 Championship.

With the recent turn of events, it could be that Stanford now holds the key to the Pac-12 bowl scramble.  The Cardinal lost at USC and at San Diego State, but since then, David Shaw’s squad looks the most complete.  With a home finale against Notre Dame, the possible Pac-12 champion could be 10-3, but even at 11-2, we do not see a way that Stanford (or any other Pac-12 team could get in the playoff).

The two Arizona schools had coaches on very hot seats before this past weekend, but Arizona State’s smashing of Washington, and Arizona’s trouncing of UCLA most likely gave Todd Graham and Rich Rodriguez stays of execution if not outright commutations.

UCLA looks like the team hurting the most, and for Jim Mora, Jr., the bell might soon toll for him.  Chip Kelly might be the right person for this job.  Forget the eastern schools with openings; if UCLA offers him this job, Kelly will take it before he takes jobs like Ole Miss, Tennessee, Nebraska, or possibly Auburn if there is a move there.

Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 9

Result: It is our belief that with no playoff teams, the league will get two teams in the NY6 bowl block.  The champion will get an automatic berth, and we believe that if Stanford wins out in the league, then either USC or Washington will get a bid to the Fiesta or Cotton Bowl.

For now, we have both UCLA and Colorado just missing out on bowl eligibility, while we move California and the two Arizona teams into bowl eligibility.  There will be one extra team available to take an at-large bowl bid back in the east.  Arizona, you look like the perfect team to spend the holiday season in some rural Southern town.

Southeastern Conference 

There will be a mini-crisis or two coming forth from the SEC race this season.  First, and most obvious, it looks like there is more than a decent chance that both Alabama and Georgia could run the table and square off in the SEC Championship games sporting identical 12-0 records, with Alabama number one and Georgia number two.  We then expect a close game with the loser remaining in the top four, thus giving the SEC two teams in the playoffs.  Since the playoffs began, this has not happened.

The other mini-crisis involves the fact that this league now looks to be short in its bowl eligibility needs.  Missouri and Arkansas are headed to losing records, which will open at least one coaching job if not two.  Ole Miss is ineligible for bowl consideration, and both Tennessee and Vanderbilt appear to be headed to a season finale where both teams could be 5-6, so the loser will be out of the bowl picture.  Throw in the distinct possibility now that Florida could very well fall to 5-6 (had a game cancelled due to Hurricane Irma) and also miss out on a bowl.  That brings the number of bowl-ineligible SEC teams to  five, leaving 9 bowl-eligible teams.

Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 9

Result: Start with two teams making the playoffs.  This will mean that the Orange Bowl will choose to go elsewhere with their opponent to the ACC champion.  It will leave two bowls without an SEC representative, the Birmingham and the Independence.  Unfortunately for the Birmingham Bowl, it looks like it might need two at-large teams to face off at Legion Field on December 23.

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
N.  Orleans CUSA SBC UAB Arkansas St.
Cure AAC SBC SMU Georgia St.
Las Vegas MWC 1 PAC-12 5 Wyoming Washington St.
New Mexico CUSA MWC UTSA Colorado St.
Camellia MAC SBC Northern Illinois Troy
Boca Raton AAC CUSA South Florida Louisiana Tech
Frisco AAC MAC Houston Western Mich.
Gasparilla AAC CUSA [Southern Miss.] Florida Int’l.
Bahamas CUSA 1 MAC Marshall Toledo
Potato MAC MWC Ohio U Boise St.
B’ham AAC SEC 8-9 [Arizona] [Fla. Atlantic]
A.  Forces Army BIG TEN 8 Army [Middle Tenn.]
$ General MAC SBC Akron Appy St.
Hawaii AAC MWC Memphis San Diego St.
Ht. of Dallas BIG 12 6 CUSA Iowa St. North Texas
Quick Lane ACC 7-9 BIG TEN 7 [Central Mich.] Indiana
Cactus BIG 12 5 PAC-12 6 Texas Arizona
Independ. ACC 7-9 SEC 8-9 Duke [Western Ky.]
Pinstripe ACC 3-6 BIG TEN 5 Florida St. Iowa
F. Farms BIG TEN 6 PAC-12 8 Purdue Oregon
Texas BIG 12 3 SEC 2-7 Texas Tech Miss. State
Military AAC 7-9 ACC 7-9 Navy Louisville
Camp.Wrld. ACC 2 BIG 12 2 Virginia Oklahoma
Holiday BIG TEN 3 PAC-12 2 Northwestern Utah
Alamo BIG 12 1 PAC-12 1 TCU USC
Belk ACC 3-6 SEC 2-7 Virginia Tech Kentucky
Sun ACC 3-6 Pac-12 Syracuse California
Music City ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Georgia Tech Auburn
Arizona MWC SBC Fresno St. New Mexico St.
Cotton At-large At-large Notre Dame Washington
Taxslayer ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Michigan South Carolina
Liberty BIG 12 4 SEC 2-7 West Virginia Tennessee
Fiesta At-large At-large Wisconsin Stanford
Orange ACC 1 SEC 1/B10 1 Miami (Fla.) Penn St.
Outback BIG TEN 2 SEC 2-7 Michigan St. LSU
Peach At-large At-large N.C.  St. Central Florida
Citrus B10 1/ACC 2 SEC 1 Clemson Texas A&M
Rose Playoff Semi-final Ohio St. Georgia
Sugar Playoff Semi-final Alabama Oklahoma St.
Champ. Semifinal Winners Alabama Ohio St.
         
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

October 9, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for October 11-14, 2017

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:14 am

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Troy South Alabama 15.8 13.1 15.4
Louisiana-Lafayette Texas St. 17.0 15.8 18.4
Syracuse Clemson -19.2 -18.2 -19.4
California Washington St. -16.5 -16.4 -17.8
Army Eastern Michigan 5.6 6.2 6.2
Temple Connecticut 14.9 12.3 15.1
Pittsburgh North Carolina St. -9.6 -8.6 -10.5
West Virginia Texas Tech 5.3 6.2 6.1
Tennessee South Carolina 0.0 -0.8 -0.9
Kansas St. TCU -2.2 0.0 -2.5
Illinois Rutgers -2.2 -0.8 -2.7
Iowa St. Kansas 25.1 22.6 26.9
Mississippi St. BYU 17.1 18.5 17.3
Indiana Michigan -6.7 -6.6 -5.7
Louisville Boston College 18.4 17.2 18.6
Air Force UNLV 8.9 7.0 9.1
Marshall Old Dominion 7.0 5.6 8.4
Oklahoma St. Baylor 24.4 21.1 25.2
Maryland Northwestern -4.9 -1.1 -4.9
Kent St. Miami (O) -8.4 -8.9 -9.2
Bowling Green Ohio U -6.3 -6.9 -6.2
Ole Miss Vanderbilt 0.6 0.0 -0.2
Wisconsin Purdue 23.0 17.8 20.8
North Carolina Virginia 4.2 3.7 1.3
Central Michigan Toledo -7.5 -6.7 -8.2
Buffalo Northern Illinois -2.7 -0.1 -1.2
Oklahoma (N) Texas 8.6 6.5 8.7
Western Michigan Akron 19.8 15.3 20.8
Miami (Fla.) Georgia Tech 9.3 9.3 10.7
Duke Florida St. -12.5 -12.3 -12.6
Florida Texas A&M 10.1 11.3 10.4
Alabama Arkansas 39.1 34.8 38.6
LSU Auburn -11.4 -10.7 -10.9
Memphis Navy 6.5 5.0 6.8
Tulsa Houston -8.1 -7.3 -8.7
Oregon St. Colorado -13.6 -12.1 -12.8
Utah St. Wyoming 0.0 0.2 0.7
Western Kentucky Charlotte 22.6 19.6 22.9
Louisiana-Monroe Georgia St. 0.1 1.4 -0.9
Idaho Appalachian St. -12.9 -8.4 -12.5
Georgia Southern New Mexico St. -7.4 -4.0 -7.9
UAB Middle Tennessee -17.5 -14.3 -16.0
Southern Miss. UTEP 17.5 15.5 17.3
North Texas UTSA -8.4 -8.4 -9.7
Central Florida East Carolina 34.1 34.0 35.7
Florida Int’l. Tulane -15.9 -15.5 -16.1
Arkansas St. Coastal Carolina 21.6 21.9 21.3
Georgia Missouri 31.4 34.1 32.9
Nebraska Ohio St. -29.5 -25.6 -30.1
South Florida Cincinnati 28.4 24.6 28.2
Minnesota Michigan St. 5.9 4.4 4.9
USC Utah 15.4 13.1 15.0
Arizona UCLA -3.6 -3.9 -4.3
Fresno St. New Mexico -1.7 -2.7 -2.0
Colorado St. Nevada 25.9 22.1 24.8
San Diego St. Boise St. 6.6 8.6 8.0
Arizona St. Washington -25.4 -22.8 -26.7
Stanford Oregon 9 10.2 9.1
Hawaii San Jose St. 13 14.0 13.6

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Retrodictive Rankings

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Clemson
3 Washington
4 Penn St.
5 Georgia
6 Washington St.
7 TCU
8 Ohio St.
9 Wisconsin
10 Miami (Fla)
11 Notre Dame
12 USC
13 Central Florida
14 San Diego St.
15 Auburn
16 Oklahoma St.
17 Oklahoma
18 Michigan
19 Virginia Tech
20 North Carolina St.
21 South Florida
22 Stanford
23 Texas Tech
24 Navy
25 Michigan St.
26 Iowa
27 Mississippi St.
28 Wake Forest
29 Florida
30 Houston
31 Louisville
32 Kentucky
33 Utah
34 Oregon
35 Georgia Tech
36 Florida St.
37 Texas A&M
38 South Carolina
39 Texas
40 LSU
41 Memphis
42 Iowa St.
43 Maryland
44 Purdue
45 Toledo
46 Tennessee
47 Virginia
48 Duke
49 West Virginia
50 Minnesota
51 UCLA
52 Western Michigan
53 Boise St.
54 Colorado St.
55 Kansas St.
56 Troy
57 Arizona St.
58 Indiana
59 Vanderbilt
60 Colorado
61 Arizona
62 Northwestern
63 California
64 SMU
65 Marshall
66 Army
67 Appalachian St.
68 Nebraska
69 Northern Illinois
70 Tulane
71 Fresno St.
72 Boston College
73 Syracuse
74 Louisiana Tech
75 Southern Miss.
76 Arkansas
77 Florida Atlantic
78 Temple
79 North Texas
80 UTSA
81 Wyoming
82 Pittsburgh
83 Arkansas St.
84 Western Kentucky
85 Ole Miss
86 New Mexico
87 Utah St.
88 Ohio
89 North Carolina
90 Buffalo
91 Akron
92 Air Force
93 Middle Tennessee
94 Cincinnati
95 UL-Monroe
96 Eastern Michigan
97 Illinois
98 UNLV
99 Tulsa
100 New Mexico St.
101 Central Michigan
102 Miami (O)
103 Florida Int’l.
104 Baylor
105 Missouri
106 Oregon St.
107 Rutgers
108 UL-Lafayette
109 UAB
110 Georgia St.
111 Nevada
112 BYU
113 Old Dominion
114 Idaho
115 Hawaii
116 East Carolina
117 Bowling Green
118 Ball St.
119 Kent St.
120 Connecticut
121 South Alabama
122 Kansas
123 Georgia Southern
124 Coastal Carolina
125 Rice
126 Massachusetts
127 San Jose St.
128 UTEP
129 Texas St.
130 Charlotte

Predictive Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 139.0 134.4 137.8 137.1
2 Ohio St. 134.3 131.6 134.0 133.3
3 Washington 130.5 127.4 131.2 129.7
4 Clemson 130.0 127.4 129.5 129.0
5 Penn St. 128.2 126.1 129.1 127.8
6 Auburn 126.9 124.7 127.0 126.2
7 Georgia 125.5 125.9 125.9 125.8
8 Florida St. 123.3 121.9 122.1 122.5
9 Oklahoma St. 122.5 121.1 123.3 122.3
10 Oklahoma 122.1 120.8 122.6 121.8
11 Miami 122.3 120.0 122.0 121.4
12 Wisconsin 122.9 119.1 121.4 121.2
13 Washington St. 120.8 118.3 120.4 119.8
14 U S C 119.6 118.9 119.4 119.3
15 Virginia Tech 118.7 118.1 119.0 118.6
16 T C U 119.2 116.8 119.5 118.5
17 Notre Dame 117.4 116.0 118.1 117.1
18 N. Carolina St. 117.2 116.5 117.3 117.0
19 Stanford 117.3 116.1 116.5 116.6
20 Florida 115.2 114.2 114.6 114.7
21 Georgia Tech 116.0 113.7 114.3 114.7
22 Louisville 114.9 113.9 114.8 114.5
23 Michigan 114.4 114.4 113.8 114.2
24 Texas 113.5 114.3 113.9 113.9
25 Kansas St. 113.9 113.8 114.0 113.9
26 Central Florida 111.8 113.4 113.1 112.8
27 L S U 112.6 111.0 113.1 112.2
28 South Florida 112.2 110.8 113.3 112.1
29 Kentucky 110.9 109.7 110.2 110.3
30 Oregon 111.4 108.8 110.5 110.2
31 West Virginia 109.7 110.3 109.9 110.0
32 Iowa 109.8 110.0 109.6 109.8
33 Northwestern 110.1 108.2 110.0 109.4
34 U C L A 108.5 107.8 107.9 108.1
35 Utah 107.2 108.8 107.4 107.8
36 Colorado 109.1 107.4 106.9 107.8
37 Mississippi St. 107.2 108.0 107.2 107.5
38 Texas Tech 107.4 107.0 106.8 107.1
39 Texas A&M 108.1 105.9 107.2 107.1
40 S. Carolina 107.7 106.8 106.7 107.1
41 Syracuse 107.8 106.2 107.1 107.0
42 Duke 107.8 106.7 106.6 107.0
43 Colo. State 107.4 105.9 107.7 107.0
44 Wake Forest 107.5 106.1 107.3 106.9
45 Iowa State 106.1 106.7 107.0 106.6
46 Minnesota 105.5 106.0 105.0 105.5
47 Houston 105.2 104.4 105.3 105.0
48 San Diego St. 104.5 104.7 105.6 104.9
49 Indiana 104.7 104.8 105.1 104.9
50 Pittsburgh 104.6 104.9 103.9 104.5
51 Vanderbilt 105.1 104.2 104.0 104.4
52 Memphis 104.5 103.8 104.8 104.3
53 N. Carolina 105.1 104.1 103.3 104.2
54 Virginia 103.9 103.4 105.0 104.1
55 Purdue 102.9 104.3 103.6 103.6
56 Tennessee 104.7 103.0 102.8 103.5
57 Michigan St. 102.5 104.6 103.1 103.4
58 Maryland 102.2 104.1 102.2 102.8
59 Arkansas 102.9 102.5 102.2 102.6
60 Western Michigan 102.1 100.5 103.5 102.0
61 Nebraska 101.8 103.0 100.9 101.9
62 Baylor 101.1 103.0 101.2 101.8
63 Arizona St. 102.1 101.5 101.5 101.7
64 Ole Miss 102.7 101.2 100.8 101.6
65 Navy 101.0 101.8 101.0 101.2
66 Arizona 101.9 100.9 100.6 101.1
67 Boise St. 100.9 99.1 100.6 100.2
68 California 101.3 98.9 99.6 99.9
69 Toledo 99.4 99.4 100.6 99.8
70 Boston College 99.5 99.7 99.2 99.5
71 Tulane 98.6 98.6 99.3 98.8
72 Army 98.3 98.4 99.1 98.6
73 SMU 98.3 98.5 98.7 98.5
74 Appalachian St. 98.7 96.4 99.0 98.0
75 Troy 96.6 96.6 96.1 96.4
76 Missouri 97.1 94.8 96.0 96.0
77 Eastern Michigan 95.7 95.2 95.9 95.6
78 U T S A 94.3 96.1 96.1 95.5
79 New Mexico 95.0 94.7 95.8 95.2
80 Temple 94.5 94.8 94.6 94.6
81 Wyoming 95.4 94.2 94.2 94.6
82 Tulsa 94.6 94.7 94.1 94.5
83 Rutgers 93.9 94.0 93.1 93.7
84 BYU 93.1 92.5 92.9 92.8
85 Air Force 92.3 92.8 92.6 92.6
86 Florida Atlantic 91.2 93.9 92.5 92.5
87 W. Kentucky 92.1 91.5 93.0 92.2
88 Oregon St. 92.5 92.3 91.0 91.9
89 Utah St. 92.4 91.4 91.9 91.9
90 Ohio U 90.9 92.3 91.6 91.6
91 Northern Illinois 90.6 90.4 91.3 90.7
92 Miami (O) 89.6 91.6 90.8 90.7
93 Arkansas St. 89.6 91.1 90.9 90.5
94 Middle Tennessee 89.7 90.3 90.3 90.1
95 Fresno St. 90.3 89.0 90.8 90.1
96 Marshall 88.8 90.1 90.4 89.8
97 Louisiana Tech 88.5 90.1 89.4 89.4
98 Central Michigan 88.9 89.7 89.4 89.3
99 Illinois 89.2 90.7 87.9 89.3
100 Cincinnati 86.8 89.1 88.1 88.0
101 N. Mexico St. 88.2 86.3 88.4 87.6
102 U N L V 86.4 88.7 86.5 87.2
103 Southern Miss. 86.7 87.9 86.9 87.1
104 Buffalo 85.4 87.7 87.6 86.9
105 Akron 85.3 88.2 85.7 86.4
106 Hawaii 85.9 86.9 85.7 86.2
107 Old Dominion 84.8 87.6 85.0 85.8
108 Nevada 84.5 86.8 85.9 85.7
109 UL-Lafayette 84.9 86.2 85.0 85.4
110 Massachusetts 85.4 84.7 85.3 85.1
111 Kansas 84.0 87.1 83.1 84.8
112 N. Texas 84.0 85.6 84.3 84.6
113 Georgia St. 84.7 84.1 84.7 84.5
114 S. Alabama 83.2 86.0 83.3 84.2
115 Idaho 82.9 85.0 83.5 83.8
116 Bowling Green 82.6 83.5 83.3 83.1
117 Connecticut 82.1 85.0 82.0 83.0
118 UL-Monroe 81.8 82.5 80.8 81.7
119 East Carolina 80.7 82.4 80.4 81.2
120 Florida Int’l. 80.1 80.6 80.7 80.5
121 Kent St. 79.2 80.7 79.6 79.8
122 Georgia Southern 77.8 79.3 77.5 78.2
123 San Jose St. 76.8 76.9 76.1 76.6
124 Rice 74.9 76.0 75.0 75.3
125 Ball St. 74.0 76.2 75.2 75.1
126 Charlotte 72.6 74.9 73.0 73.5
127 U T E P 72.2 75.3 72.6 73.4
128 Coastal Carolina 71.0 72.2 72.5 71.9
129 UAB 69.7 73.5 71.8 71.7
130 Texas St. 70.4 72.9 69.1 70.8

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Central Florida 2-0 4-0 111.8 113.4 113.1 112.8
South Florida 2-0 5-0 112.2 110.8 113.3 112.1
Temple 1-2 3-3 94.5 94.8 94.6 94.6
Cincinnati 0-2 2-4 86.8 89.1 88.1 88.0
Connecticut 0-3 1-4 82.1 85.0 82.0 83.0
East Carolina 1-2 1-5 80.7 82.4 80.4 81.2
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 2-0 4-1 105.2 104.4 105.3 105.0
Memphis 1-1 4-1 104.5 103.8 104.8 104.3
Navy 3-0 5-0 101.0 101.8 101.0 101.2
Tulane 1-1 3-2 98.6 98.6 99.3 98.8
SMU 1-1 4-2 98.3 98.5 98.7 98.5
Tulsa 0-2 1-5 94.6 94.7 94.1 94.5
             
AAC Averages     97.5 98.1 97.9 97.8
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 4-0 6-0 130.0 127.4 129.5 129.0
Florida St. 1-2 1-3 123.3 121.9 122.1 122.5
N. Carolina St. 3-0 5-1 117.2 116.5 117.3 117.0
Louisville 1-2 4-2 114.9 113.9 114.8 114.5
Syracuse 1-1 3-3 107.8 106.2 107.1 107.0
Wake Forest 1-2 4-2 107.5 106.1 107.3 106.9
Boston College 0-3 2-4 99.5 99.7 99.2 99.5
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 2-0 4-0 122.3 120.0 122.0 121.4
Virginia Tech 1-1 5-1 118.7 118.1 119.0 118.6
Georgia Tech 2-0 3-1 116.0 113.7 114.3 114.7
Duke 1-2 4-2 107.8 106.7 106.6 107.0
Pittsburgh 0-2 2-4 104.6 104.9 103.9 104.5
N. Carolina 0-3 1-5 105.1 104.1 103.3 104.2
Virginia 1-0 4-1 103.9 103.4 105.0 104.1
             
ACC Averages     112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma St. 1-1 4-1 122.5 121.1 123.3 122.3
Oklahoma 1-1 4-1 122.1 120.8 122.6 121.8
T C U 2-0 5-0 119.2 116.8 119.5 118.5
Kansas St. 1-1 3-2 113.9 113.8 114.0 113.9
Texas 2-0 3-2 113.5 114.3 113.9 113.9
West Virginia 1-1 3-2 109.7 110.3 109.9 110.0
Iowa State 1-1 3-2 106.1 106.7 107.0 106.6
Texas Tech 1-1 4-1 107.4 107.0 106.8 107.1
Baylor 0-2 0-5 101.1 103.0 101.2 101.8
Kansas 0-2 1-4 84.0 87.1 83.1 84.8
             
Big 12 Averages     110.0 110.1 110.1 110.1
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 3-0 5-1 134.3 131.6 134.0 133.3
Penn St. 3-0 6-0 128.2 126.1 129.1 127.8
Michigan 1-1 4-1 114.4 114.4 113.8 114.2
Indiana 0-2 3-2 104.7 104.8 105.1 104.9
Michigan St. 2-0 4-1 102.5 104.6 103.1 103.4
Maryland 1-1 3-2 102.2 104.1 102.2 102.8
Rutgers 0-2 1-4 93.9 94.0 93.1 93.7
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 2-0 5-0 122.9 119.1 121.4 121.2
Iowa 1-2 4-2 109.8 110.0 109.6 109.8
Northwestern 0-2 2-3 110.1 108.2 110.0 109.4
Minnesota 0-2 3-2 105.5 106.0 105.0 105.5
Purdue 1-1 3-2 102.9 104.3 103.6 103.6
Nebraska 2-1 3-3 101.8 103.0 100.9 101.9
Illinois 0-2 2-3 89.2 90.7 87.9 89.3
             
Big Ten Averages     108.8 108.6 108.5 108.6
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida Atlantic 2-0 3-3 91.2 93.9 92.5 92.5
W. Kentucky 1-1 3-2 92.1 91.5 93.0 92.2
Middle Tennessee 1-1 3-3 89.7 90.3 90.3 90.1
Marshall 1-0 4-1 88.8 90.1 90.4 89.8
Old Dominion 0-1 2-3 84.8 87.6 85.0 85.8
Florida Int’l. 2-1 3-2 80.1 80.6 80.7 80.5
Charlotte 0-2 0-6 72.6 74.9 73.0 73.5
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 0-1 3-1 94.3 96.1 96.1 95.5
Louisiana Tech 1-1 3-3 88.5 90.1 89.4 89.4
Southern Miss. 1-1 3-2 86.7 87.9 86.9 87.1
N. Texas 2-0 3-2 84.0 85.6 84.3 84.6
Rice 1-1 1-5 74.9 76.0 75.0 75.3
U T E P 0-2 0-6 72.2 75.3 72.6 73.4
UAB 1-1 3-2 69.7 73.5 71.8 71.7
             
CUSA Averages     83.5 85.3 84.4 84.4
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   5-1 117.4 116.0 118.1 117.1
Army   4-2 98.3 98.4 99.1 98.6
BYU   1-5 93.1 92.5 92.9 92.8
Massachusetts   0-6 85.4 84.7 85.3 85.1
             
Independents Averages     98.5 97.9 98.8 98.4
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio U 1-1 4-2 90.9 92.3 91.6 91.6
Miami (O) 1-1 2-4 89.6 91.6 90.8 90.7
Buffalo 1-1 3-3 85.4 87.7 87.6 86.9
Akron 2-0 3-3 85.3 88.2 85.7 86.4
Bowling Green 1-1 1-5 82.6 83.5 83.3 83.1
Kent St. 0-2 1-5 79.2 80.7 79.6 79.8
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 2-0 4-2 102.1 100.5 103.5 102.0
Toledo 0-0 4-1 99.4 99.4 100.6 99.8
Eastern Michigan 0-2 2-3 95.7 95.2 95.9 95.6
Northern Illinois 1-0 3-2 90.6 90.4 91.3 90.7
Central Michigan 1-1 3-3 88.9 89.7 89.4 89.3
Ball St. 0-2 2-4 74.0 76.2 75.2 75.1
             
MAC Averages     88.6 89.6 89.5 89.3
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Colo. State 2-0 4-2 107.4 105.9 107.7 107.0
Boise St. 1-0 3-2 100.9 99.1 100.6 100.2
New Mexico 1-1 3-2 95.0 94.7 95.8 95.2
Wyoming 1-0 3-2 95.4 94.2 94.2 94.6
Air Force 0-2 1-4 92.3 92.8 92.6 92.6
Utah St. 1-1 3-3 92.4 91.4 91.9 91.9
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 2-0 6-0 104.5 104.7 105.6 104.9
Fresno St. 2-0 3-2 90.3 89.0 90.8 90.1
U N L V 1-1 2-3 86.4 88.7 86.5 87.2
Hawaii 0-3 2-4 85.9 86.9 85.7 86.2
Nevada 1-1 1-5 84.5 86.8 85.9 85.7
San Jose St. 0-3 1-6 76.8 76.9 76.1 76.6
             
MWC Averages     92.6 92.6 92.8 92.7
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 3-0 6-0 130.5 127.4 131.2 129.7
Washington St. 3-0 6-0 120.8 118.3 120.4 119.8
Stanford 3-1 4-2 117.3 116.1 116.5 116.6
Oregon 1-2 4-2 111.4 108.8 110.5 110.2
California 0-3 3-3 101.3 98.9 99.6 99.9
Oregon St. 0-3 1-5 92.5 92.3 91.0 91.9
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 3-1 5-1 119.6 118.9 119.4 119.3
U C L A 1-1 3-2 108.5 107.8 107.9 108.1
Utah 1-1 4-1 107.2 108.8 107.4 107.8
Colorado 0-3 3-3 109.1 107.4 106.9 107.8
Arizona St. 1-1 2-3 102.1 101.5 101.5 101.7
Arizona 1-1 3-2 101.9 100.9 100.6 101.1
             
Pac-12 Averages     110.2 108.9 109.4 109.5
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 3-0 6-0 125.5 125.9 125.9 125.8
Florida 3-1 3-2 115.2 114.2 114.6 114.7
Kentucky 2-1 5-1 110.9 109.7 110.2 110.3
S. Carolina 2-2 4-2 107.7 106.8 106.7 107.1
Vanderbilt 0-3 3-3 105.1 104.2 104.0 104.4
Tennessee 0-2 3-2 104.7 103.0 102.8 103.5
Missouri 0-3 1-4 97.1 94.8 96.0 96.0
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 3-0 6-0 139.0