The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 18, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 3: September 20-24, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Cleveland N.Y. Jets 0.1 0.3 0.6 45
Philadelphia Indianapolis 12.3 14.4 11.9 45
Carolina Cincinnati 5.2 4.1 5.2 43
Jacksonville Tennessee 10.4 10.1 11.2 42.5
Atlanta New Orleans 3.5 3.5 3.7 45
Baltimore Denver 5.9 6.9 6.6 44.5
Houston N.Y. Giants 5.4 5.4 5.1 43
Miami Oakland 7.8 6.8 8.2 42.5
Washington Green Bay 2.1 -0.2 2.2 45
Minnesota Buffalo 16.0 16.3 16.2 38
Kansas City San Francisco 9.5 9.4 9.9 49
L.A. Rams L.A. Chargers 6.7 7.3 7.3 47
Arizona Chicago -1.6 -2.3 -2.8 37.5
Seattle Dallas 3.7 3.2 3.7 41.5
Detroit New England -3.3 -4.3 -3.2 47
Tampa Bay Pittsburgh -5.2 -5.3 -3.9 45.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 104.4 105.1 104.2 104.6 21 1-1
Miami 99.2 98.6 99.6 99.1 21.5 2-0
N. Y. Jets 98.7 98.5 98.9 98.7 23 1-1
Buffalo 91.4 91.3 91.0 91.2 18 0-2
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 105.1 105.0 104.3 104.8 22.5 0-1-1
Baltimore 101.2 101.9 101.3 101.5 23 1-1
Cincinnati 99.7 100.3 99.9 100.0 21.5 2-0
Cleveland 95.8 95.8 96.5 96.0 22 0-1-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 104.3 104.2 104.7 104.4 21.5 2-0
Houston 99.2 99.2 98.9 99.1 24 0-2
Tennessee 96.9 97.0 96.5 96.8 21 1-1
Indianapolis 95.0 93.1 94.8 94.3 22 1-1
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 105.3 105.7 105.7 105.6 25.5 2-0
LA Chargers 101.1 101.9 101.4 101.5 22 1-1
Denver 98.3 98.0 97.7 98.0 21.5 2-0
Oakland 94.8 95.3 94.9 95.0 21 0-2
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 102.2 102.5 101.8 102.2 23 1-1
Dallas 99.6 99.6 99.3 99.5 19.5 1-1
Washington 99.6 98.4 99.4 99.1 21.5 1-1
N.Y. Giants 96.8 96.7 96.8 96.8 19 0-2
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Minnesota 104.4 104.5 104.2 104.4 20 1-0-1
Green Bay 100.5 101.6 100.2 100.7 23.5 1-0-1
Chicago 99.3 99.0 100.0 99.4 18.5 1-1
Detroit 98.1 97.9 98.0 98.0 26 0-2
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Atlanta 104.4 104.3 104.6 104.4 21.5 1-1
New Orleans 103.4 103.3 103.4 103.4 23.5 1-1
Carolina 101.9 101.4 102.1 101.8 21.5 1-1
Tampa Bay 97.9 97.7 98.4 98.0 23 2-0
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 107.9 109.2 108.7 108.6 25 2-0
Seattle 100.3 99.8 100.0 100.0 22 0-2
San Francisco 98.8 99.3 98.8 99.0 23.5 1-1
Arizona 94.7 93.7 94.2 94.2 19 0-2

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Kansas City
2 Jacksonville
3 New England
4 Cincinnati
5 Miami
6 L.A. Chargers

 

NFC Seeding
1 L.A. Rams
2 Minnesota
3 Philadelphia
4 Tampa Bay
5 Green Bay
6 Atlanta

 

Wildcard Round
L.A. Chargers over New England
Miami over Cincinnati
Philadelphia over Atlanta
Green Bay over Tampa Bay

 

Divisional Round
L.A. Chargers over Kansas City
Jacksonville over Miami
L.A. Rams over Green Bay
Minnesota over Philadelphia

 

Conference Championship
Jacksonville over L.A. Chargers
L.A. Rams over Minnesota

 

Super Bowl 53
L.A. Rams over Jacksonville

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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September 11, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 2: September 13-17, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Week Number: 2
Date of Games: September 13-17
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Cincinnati Baltimore -0.7 -1.0 -1.0 43.5
Washington Indianapolis 10.9 12.3 11.5 44.5
Atlanta Carolina 4.7 4.9 4.5 42
Green Bay Minnesota -1.1 0.1 -1.4 42
Buffalo L.A. Chargers -5.5 -6.3 -5.7 39
Tennessee Houston 0.2 0.4 0.1 46
Pittsburgh Kansas City 4.4 4.2 3.4 46.5
N.Y. Jets Miami 5.1 5.8 5.2 45
Tampa Bay Philadelphia -2.3 -3.4 -1.3 46
New Orleans Cleveland 12.7 12.8 12.4 46.5
L.A. Rams Arizona 11.9 13.9 12.9 45
San Francisco Detroit 3.7 4.4 3.8 49
Jacksonville New England 0.8 -0.3 1.0 41.5
Denver Oakland 6.8 6.0 6.1 42.5
Dallas N.Y. Giants 5.3 5.4 5.0 39.5
Chicago Seattle 1.2 1.1 1.9 40.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 105.3 106.1 105.3 105.6 20 1-0
N. Y. Jets 99.8 99.8 100.2 99.9 23.5 1-0
Miami 97.8 97.0 98.0 97.6 21.5 1-0
Buffalo 92.2 92.1 92.0 92.1 18 0-1
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 105.4 105.4 104.7 105.2 22 0-0-1
Baltimore 102.3 103.1 102.6 102.7 23 1-0
Cincinnati 98.6 99.1 98.6 98.8 20.5 1-0
Cleveland 95.0 94.9 95.5 95.1 22 0-0-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 103.1 102.9 103.3 103.1 21.5 1-0
Houston 99.2 99.2 98.9 99.1 24.5 0-1
Tennessee 96.9 97.0 96.5 96.8 21.5 0-1
Indianapolis 93.6 91.4 93.1 92.7 22.5 0-1
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 104.0 104.3 104.3 104.2 24.5 1-0
LA Chargers 100.6 101.4 100.7 100.9 21 0-1
Denver 98.6 98.3 98.0 98.3 21.5 1-0
Oakland 94.8 95.3 94.9 95.0 21 0-1
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 102.7 103.3 102.3 102.8 23 1-0
Washington 101.5 100.6 101.6 101.2 22 1-0
Dallas 99.5 99.5 99.2 99.4 20 0-1
N.Y. Giants 97.2 97.1 97.2 97.2 19.5 0-1
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Minnesota 104.5 104.5 104.4 104.5 19.5 1-0
Green Bay 100.4 101.6 100.0 100.6 22.5 1-0
Chicago 99.0 98.6 99.6 99.1 18.5 0-1
Detroit 98.1 97.9 98.0 98.0 25.5 0-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 104.7 104.7 104.9 104.8 24.5 0-1
Atlanta 104.2 104.1 104.4 104.2 21 0-1
Carolina 102.1 101.6 102.3 102.0 21 1-0
Tampa Bay 97.4 96.9 97.9 97.4 23 1-0
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 105.7 106.8 106.4 106.3 25.5 1-0
Seattle 100.9 100.5 100.7 100.7 22 0-1
San Francisco 98.8 99.3 98.8 99.0 23.5 0-1
Arizona 96.3 95.5 95.9 95.9 19.5 0-1

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 New England
2 Kansas City
3 Jacksonville
4 Baltimore
5 Pittsburgh
6 New York Jets
NFC Seeding
1 L.A. Rams
2 Minnesota
3 Philadelphia
4 Carolina
5 Green Bay
6 Washington
Wildcard Round
N.Y. Jets over Jacksonville
Baltimore over Pittsburgh
Philadelphia over Washington
Green Bay over Carolina
Divisional Round
New England over N.Y. Jets
Baltimore over Kansas City
L.A. Rams over Green Bay
Minnesota over Philadelphia
Conference Championship
New England over Baltimore
L.A. Rams over Minnesota
Super Bowl 53
L.A. Rams over New England

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

January 1, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Wildcard Playoff Round: January 6-7, 2018

All times given are Eastern Standard Time

Saturday, January 6, 2018

4:20 PM on ESPN

Tennessee Titans (9-7-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (10-6-0)

PiRate: Kansas City by 8.1

Mean: Kansas City by 8.0

Bias: Kansas City by 8.7

Total: 45

Estimated Realistic Score: Kansas City 27  Tennessee 17

 

8:15 PM on NBC

Atlanta Falcons (10-6-0) at Los Angeles Rams (11-5-0)

PiRate: Los Angeles by 5.4

Mean: Los Angeles by 5.0

Bias: Los Angeles by 5.7

Total: 48

Estimated Realistic Score: Los Angeles 27  Atlanta 21

 

Sunday, January 7, 2018

1:05 PM on CBS

Buffalo Bills (9-7-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6-0)

PiRate: Jacksonville by 9.4

Mean: Jacksonville by 8.9

Bias: Jacksonville by 9.5

Total: 42

Estimated Realistic Score: Jacksonville 26  Buffalo 16

 

4:40 PM on Fox

Carolina Panthers (11-5-0) at New Orleans Saints (11-5-0)

PiRate: New Orleans by 5.8

Mean: New Orleans by 5.9

Bias: New Orleans by 6.0

Total: 53

Estimated Realistic Score: New Orleans 28  Carolina 24

 

 

December 19, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 16: December 23-25, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Baltimore Indianapolis 16.5 16.3 17.2 44
Green Bay Minnesota -6.3 -5.3 -7.6 39
Cincinnati Detroit -3.7 -3.3 -4.0 43
N. Y. Jets LA Chargers -6.6 -6.6 -6.8 41
Tennessee LA Rams -6.9 -6.0 -8.1 47
Chicago Cleveland 7.9 7.3 11.0 34
Carolina Tampa Bay 8.8 8.0 9.2 49
New Orleans Atlanta 6.0 5.7 6.4 55
Washington Denver 4.5 4.7 4.3 43
Kansas City Miami 9.8 9.7 10.5 44
New England Buffalo 14.2 13.9 14.2 42
San Francisco Jacksonville -7.3 -7.4 -7.5 45
Arizona N. Y. Giants 5.6 5.1 5.8 41
Dallas Seattle 4.1 3.5 4.8 45
Houston Pittsburgh -10.2 -10.1 -11.0 45
Philadelphia Oakland 12.9 11.0 14.8 47

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 108.0 108.1 108.1 108.0 22 11-3
Buffalo 96.3 96.6 96.4 96.4 20 8-6
Miami 96.1 96.2 95.6 96.0 21 6-8
N. Y. Jets 94.3 94.0 94.4 94.3 18 5-9
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Baltimore 105.9 106.1 106.1 106.0 22 8-6
Pittsburgh 105.6 105.7 105.8 105.7 23 11-3
Cincinnati 94.2 95.0 93.8 94.4 16 5-9
Cleveland 91.0 91.7 88.1 90.2 17 0-14
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 104.9 104.7 105.1 104.9 22 10-4
Tennessee 97.6 97.8 97.2 97.5 22 8-6
Houston 92.4 92.6 91.8 92.3 22 4-10
Indianapolis 91.9 92.3 91.3 91.8 22 3-11
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Chargers 104.5 104.1 104.7 104.4 23 7-7
Kansas City 102.8 102.9 103.2 103.0 23 8-6
Oakland 97.5 98.1 96.7 97.4 22 6-8
Denver 96.1 95.9 96.0 96.0 19 5-9
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 106.9 105.6 108.0 106.8 25 12-2
Dallas 102.9 102.4 102.9 102.8 24 8-6
Washington 97.5 97.7 97.3 97.5 24 6-8
N.Y. Giants 93.0 93.5 92.7 93.1 20 2-12
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Minnesota 106.9 106.5 107.6 107.0 18 11-3
Detroit 100.5 100.8 100.3 100.6 27 8-6
Green Bay 98.7 99.2 98.0 98.6 21 7-7
Chicago 96.4 96.5 96.5 96.5 17 4-10
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 107.2 106.6 107.7 107.2 29 10-4
Atlanta 104.1 103.9 104.3 104.1 26 9-5
Carolina 103.5 102.7 104.0 103.4 27 10-4
Tampa Bay 97.2 97.2 97.4 97.3 22 4-10
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 107.5 106.8 108.3 107.5 25 10-4
Seattle 101.8 102.0 101.1 101.6 21 8-6
Arizona 95.7 95.6 95.5 95.6 21 6-8
San Francisco 94.5 94.3 94.6 94.5 23 4-10

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 New England
2 Pittsburgh
3 Jacksonville
4 Kansas City
5 Baltimore
6 LA Chargers
   
NFC Seeding
1 Philadelphia
2 Minnesota
3 LA Rams
4 New Orleans
5 Carolina
6 Atlanta
Wildcard Round
Jacksonville over LA Chargers
Baltimore over Kansas City
LA Rams over Atlanta
New Orleans over Carolina
 
Divisional Round
New England over Baltimore
Pittsburgh over Jacksonville
New Orleans over Philadelphia
Minnesota over LA Rams
 
Conference Championship
Pittsburgh over New England
Minnesota over New Orleans
 
Super Bowl 52
Pittsburgh over Minnesota

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

December 12, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 15: December 14-18, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Indianapolis Denver 0.5 0.8 0.3 41
Detroit Chicago 6.2 6.5 5.7 45
Kansas City LA Chargers -1.7 -0.8 -2.0 46
N. Y. Giants Philadelphia -12.6 -10.6 -14.6 43
Carolina Green Bay 7.1 5.8 8.3 48
Minnesota Cincinnati 12.9 11.7 14.0 35
Buffalo Miami 2.4 2.8 2.7 41
Jacksonville Houston 11.1 10.8 11.8 44
New Orleans N. Y. Jets 16.2 16.0 16.6 47
Washington Arizona 5.4 5.5 5.3 47
Cleveland Baltimore -12.0 -11.7 -12.2 39
Seattle LA Rams 2.4 3.0 1.4 46
Pittsburgh New England 1.1 1.0 1.1 45
San Francisco Tennessee 0.2 0.0 0.7 45
Oakland Dallas -1.9 -0.9 -2.7 47
Tampa Bay Atlanta -4.5 -4.2 -4.4 48

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 107.8 107.9 107.9 107.8 22 10-3
Miami 96.5 96.5 96.1 96.4 21 6-7
Buffalo 95.9 96.3 95.9 96.0 20 7-6
N. Y. Jets 94.1 93.8 94.2 94.1 18 5-8
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 105.8 105.9 106.0 105.9 23 11-2
Baltimore 105.7 106.0 105.8 105.8 22 7-6
Cincinnati 95.6 96.4 95.2 95.8 17 5-8
Cleveland 91.2 91.8 91.1 91.3 17 0-13
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 102.7 102.6 102.8 102.7 22 9-4
Tennessee 97.7 97.8 97.3 97.6 22 8-5
Houston 94.6 94.7 94.1 94.5 22 4-9
Indianapolis 93.0 93.3 92.5 92.9 22 3-10
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Chargers 105.8 105.1 106.2 105.7 23 7-6
Kansas City 101.0 101.4 101.2 101.2 23 7-6
Oakland 97.5 98.1 96.7 97.4 23 6-7
Denver 95.0 94.9 94.8 94.9 19 4-9
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 107.4 106.0 108.8 107.4 25 11-2
Dallas 102.4 101.9 102.4 102.3 24 7-6
Washington 97.5 97.7 97.3 97.5 25 5-8
N.Y. Giants 92.8 93.4 92.2 92.8 18 2-11
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Minnesota 105.5 105.1 106.2 105.6 18 10-3
Detroit 100.3 100.6 100.0 100.3 27 7-6
Green Bay 99.4 99.9 98.7 99.3 21 7-6
Chicago 96.6 96.7 96.8 96.7 18 4-9
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 107.4 106.8 107.9 107.4 29 9-4
Atlanta 104.1 103.9 104.3 104.1 26 8-5
Carolina 103.5 102.7 104.0 103.4 27 9-4
Tampa Bay 97.2 97.2 97.4 97.3 22 4-9
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 104.9 104.4 105.5 104.9 25 9-4
Seattle 104.4 104.4 103.9 104.2 21 8-5
Arizona 95.7 95.6 95.5 95.6 22 6-7
San Francisco 94.4 94.3 94.5 94.4 23 3-10

NFL Playoff Projections

Beginning this week, we look forward predicting the outcomes of every game and then use the NFL tiebreaker system to forecast seeds.  Prior to week 15, we use only the PiRate Ratings themselves to estimate won-loss record.

This week, we have Seattle winning a tiebreaker over the Rams for the NFC West, with the Rams getting a wildcard, and we have the Saints winning a tiebreaker over the Panthers in the NFC South, with the Panthers getting the other wildcard.

In the AFC, we still show New England getting the top seed by virtue of a road win against the Steelers.  We have the Chargers edging the Chiefs in the AFC West, but we show KC getting the last playoff spot due to a possible 4-game collapse by Tennessee.

This is rather sketchy and only one possible outcome for the season.  Obviously, by this time next week, the probabilities will be drastically reduced with many key games.

AFC Seeding
1 New England
2 Pittsburgh
3 Jacksonville
4 LA Chargers
5 Baltimore
6 Kansas City
   
NFC Seeding
1 Philadelphia
2 Minnesota
3 New Orleans
4 Seattle
5 LA Rams
6 Carolina
Wildcard Round
Jacksonville over Kansas City
LA Chargers over Baltimore
New Orleans over Carolina
Seattle over LA Rams
 
Divisional Round
New England over LA Chargers
Jacksonville over Pittsburgh
Seattle over Philadelphia
Minnesota over New Orleans
 
Conference Championship
New England over Jacksonville
Minnesota over Seattle
 
Super Bowl 52
New England over Minnesota

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 14, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 11: November 16-20, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Pittsburgh Tennessee 9.5 9.9 9.8 42
Chicago Detroit -4.5 -4.6 -4.4 45
N.Y. Giants Kansas City -7.5 -7.6 -8.3 42
Miami Tampa Bay -2.0 -1.8 -2.4 43
Green Bay Baltimore -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 41
Minnesota LA Rams 0.4 0.7 0.3 43
Houston Arizona 3.9 4.1 3.6 44
Cleveland Jacksonville -7.7 -7.0 -7.9 38
New Orleans Washington 12.7 11.9 13.5 57
LA Chargers Buffalo 9.1 8.6 8.9 44
Denver Cincinnati 1.6 0.6 1.6 39
Oakland New England -4.4 -4.2 -5.0 46
Dallas Philadelphia -0.9 -0.1 -2.2 49
Seattle Atlanta 2.1 2.5 1.7 48

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 107.2 107.4 107.2 107.2 23 7-2
Buffalo 96.4 96.6 96.6 96.5 22 5-4
N. Y. Jets 95.5 95.0 95.7 95.4 19 4-6
Miami 93.0 93.1 92.5 92.9 21 4-5
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 105.2 105.5 105.2 105.3 19 7-2
Baltimore 102.6 103.2 102.4 102.7 19 4-5
Cincinnati 97.9 98.7 97.6 98.1 17 3-6
Cleveland 91.0 91.7 90.9 91.2 20 0-9
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 101.7 101.7 101.7 101.7 21 6-3
Tennessee 98.7 98.6 98.4 98.6 23 6-3
Houston 96.5 96.7 96.1 96.4 22 3-6
Indianapolis 93.7 93.8 93.4 93.6 23 3-7
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 104.5 104.9 104.8 104.7 23 6-3
LA Chargers 102.0 101.7 102.0 101.9 22 3-6
Oakland 99.3 99.7 98.7 99.2 23 4-5
Denver 96.5 96.3 96.3 96.4 22 3-6
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 107.6 106.2 108.8 107.5 25 8-1
Dallas 103.7 103.2 103.6 103.5 24 5-4
Washington 98.8 98.9 98.8 98.8 27 4-5
N.Y. Giants 94.5 94.8 94.0 94.5 19 1-8
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Detroit 102.5 102.7 102.5 102.6 26 5-4
Minnesota 102.2 102.0 102.7 102.3 19 7-2
Green Bay 99.5 99.8 99.0 99.4 22 5-4
Chicago 95.5 95.7 95.6 95.6 19 3-6
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 108.6 107.7 109.3 108.5 30 7-2
Atlanta 103.9 103.8 104.1 103.9 28 5-4
Carolina 102.6 101.9 103.1 102.5 25 7-3
Tampa Bay 97.0 96.9 97.0 97.0 22 3-6
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 104.8 104.3 105.4 104.8 24 7-2
Seattle 103.1 103.3 102.7 103.0 20 6-3
Arizona 95.6 95.6 95.4 95.5 22 4-5
San Francisco 91.8 91.7 91.7 91.7 24 1-9

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Pittsburgh
2 New England
3 Kansas City
4 Jacksonville
5 Tennessee
6 Baltimore
NFC Seeding
1 Philadelphia
2 LA Rams
3 New Orleans
4 Minnesota
5 Carolina
6 Seattle
Wildcard Round
Kansas City over Baltimore
Jacksonville over Tennessee
New Orleans over Seattle
Carolina over Minnesota
 
Divisional Round
Pittsburgh over Jacksonville
New England over Kansas City
Philadelphia over Carolina
New Orleans over LA Rams
 
Conference Championship
New England over Pittsburgh
Philadelphia over New Orleans
 
Super Bowl 52
New England over Philadelphia

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 7, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 10: November 9-13, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Arizona Seattle -4.3 -4.5 -4.1 42
Washington Minnesota 1.7 1.6 1.6 44
Chicago Green Bay -0.7 -1.4 0.0 41
Indianapolis Pittsburgh -9.8 -9.7 -10.3 42
Jacksonville LA Chargers 3.4 3.6 3.4 44
Tampa Bay N. Y. Jets 4.4 4.9 3.8 43
Tennessee Cincinnati 3.8 2.9 3.7 40
Buffalo New Orleans -2.2 -1.1 -2.7 52
Detroit Cleveland 14.3 13.9 14.4 42
LA Rams Houston 6.2 5.7 7.0 48
Atlanta Dallas -0.7 0.1 -0.9 54
San Francisco N. Y. Giants -2.5 -2.6 -2.5 41
Denver New England -4.1 -4.8 -3.9 43
Carolina Miami 9.8 9.2 10.6 43

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 105.3 105.7 105.1 105.3 22 6-2
Buffalo 99.9 100.1 100.1 100.0 22 5-3
N. Y. Jets 95.5 95.0 95.9 95.5 20 4-5
Miami 94.4 94.4 94.0 94.3 20 4-4
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 105.7 105.9 105.9 105.9 19 6-2
Baltimore 102.3 102.9 102.1 102.4 19 4-5
Cincinnati 97.9 98.7 97.6 98.1 17 3-5
Cleveland 91.0 91.7 90.9 91.2 18 0-8
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 101.8 101.8 101.8 101.8 22 5-3
Houston 99.2 99.3 98.9 99.1 24 3-5
Tennessee 98.7 98.6 98.4 98.6 23 5-3
Indianapolis 93.5 93.7 93.0 93.4 23 3-6
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 104.2 104.6 104.5 104.4 23 6-3
LA Chargers 101.9 101.6 101.9 101.8 22 3-5
Oakland 99.0 99.4 98.4 98.9 23 4-5
Denver 98.2 97.8 98.2 98.1 21 3-5
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 107.3 105.9 108.5 107.2 25 8-1
Dallas 105.9 105.2 106.0 105.7 26 5-3
Washington 99.7 99.6 99.9 99.7 26 4-4
N.Y. Giants 95.9 96.0 95.6 95.9 17 1-7
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Detroit 102.8 103.0 102.8 102.9 24 4-4
Minnesota 101.0 101.0 101.3 101.1 18 6-2
Green Bay 99.3 99.8 98.7 99.3 22 4-4
Chicago 96.0 96.0 96.2 96.1 19 3-5
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 105.1 104.2 105.8 105.0 30 6-2
Atlanta 102.2 102.3 102.2 102.2 28 4-4
Carolina 101.2 100.6 101.6 101.1 23 6-3
Tampa Bay 97.0 96.9 96.8 96.9 23 2-6
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Seattle 103.0 103.2 102.6 102.9 20 5-3
LA Rams 102.4 102.0 102.9 102.4 24 6-2
Arizona 95.7 95.7 95.5 95.6 22 4-4
San Francisco 90.4 90.5 90.1 90.3 24 0-9

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Pittsburgh
2 New England
3 Kansas City
4 Jacksonville
5 Buffalo
6 Tennessee
   
NFC Seeding
1 Philadelphia
2 LA Rams
3 New Orleans
4 Minnesota
5 Seattle
6 Dallas
Wildcard Round
Kansas City over Tennessee
Jacksonville over Buffalo
New Orleans over Dallas
Seattle over Minnesota
 
Divisional Round
Pittsburgh over Jacksonville
New England over Kansas City
Philadelphia over Seattle
LA Rams over New Orleans
 
Conference Championship
Pittsburgh over New England
Philadelphia over LA Rams
 
Super Bowl 52
Philadelphia over Pittsburgh

 

 

 

 

 

 

October 31, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 9: November 2-6, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
N.Y. Jets Buffalo -5.9 -6.5 -6.1 41
Carolina Atlanta 1.2 0.6 1.8 52
New Orleans Tampa Bay 8.9 8.5 9.6 54
Philadelphia Denver 8.3 7.2 9.5 43
Jacksonville Cincinnati 4.4 4.1 4.4 39
Tennessee Baltimore -1.1 -1.7 -1.5 42
Houston Indianapolis 13.1 12.9 13.4 50
N.Y. Giants LA Rams 4.0 4.5 3.2 37
Seattle Washington 8.6 8.8 8.3 48
San Francisco Arizona -1.1 -1.4 -1.1 48
Dallas Kansas City 3.2 2.3 2.9 49
Miami Oakland -1.4 -2.0 -1.2 43
Green Bay Detroit 1.8 1.7 1.6 46

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Buffalo 101.7 101.8 102.1 101.9 22
Miami 94.5 94.4 94.1 94.3 20
New England 105.1 105.5 104.9 105.1 22
N. Y. Jets 93.7 93.3 93.9 93.7 19
           
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Baltimore 102.6 103.1 102.5 102.7 19
Cincinnati 99.1 99.7 99.0 99.3 17
Cleveland 90.8 91.5 90.7 91.0 18
Pittsburgh 105.5 105.7 105.7 105.7 19
           
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Houston 101.6 101.6 101.4 101.5 27
Indianapolis 91.5 91.8 90.9 91.4 23
Jacksonville 100.6 100.8 100.4 100.6 22
Tennessee 98.4 98.4 98.0 98.3 23
           
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Denver 100.1 99.7 100.1 100.0 19
Kansas City 104.9 105.3 105.3 105.2 23
LA Chargers 101.7 101.4 101.7 101.6 22
Oakland 98.9 99.4 98.3 98.9 23
           
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Dallas 105.2 104.5 105.2 105.0 26
N.Y. Giants 99.4 99.5 99.1 99.4 15
Philadelphia 105.4 104.0 106.6 105.3 24
Washington 98.6 98.6 98.7 98.6 27
           
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Chicago 95.8 95.8 96.0 95.9 19
Detroit 101.4 101.8 101.2 101.5 24
Green Bay 100.7 101.0 100.3 100.7 22
Minnesota 100.8 100.8 101.1 100.9 18
           
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Atlanta 102.3 102.4 102.3 102.3 28
Carolina 101.1 100.5 101.5 101.0 24
New Orleans 104.1 103.4 104.7 104.1 30
Tampa Bay 98.2 97.9 98.1 98.1 24
           
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Arizona 94.9 95.0 94.6 94.8 23
LA Rams 98.9 98.5 99.4 98.9 22
San Francisco 91.2 91.2 91.0 91.1 25
Seattle 104.3 104.4 104.0 104.2 21

Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Kansas City
2 New England
3 Pittsburgh
4 Jacksonville
5 Buffalo
6 Baltimore
   
NFC Seeding
1 Philadelphia
2 New Orleans
3 Seattle
4 Minnesota
5 LA Rams
6 Carolina
Wildcard Round
Pittsburgh over Baltimore
Jacksonville over Buffalo
Carolina over Seattle
LA Rams over Minnesota
 
Divisional Round
Kansas City over Jacksonville
New England over Pittsburgh
Philadelphia over Carolina
LA Rams over New Orleans
 
Conference Championship
Kansas City over New England
Philadelphia over LA Rams
 
Super Bowl 52
Philadelphia over Kansas City

October 24, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 8: October 25-29, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Baltimore Miami 5.5 6.1 5.7 39
Cleveland (London) Minnesota -9.2 -9.0 -9.2 35
New Orleans Chicago 11.6 10.9 12.2 50
N. Y. Jets Atlanta -6.4 -6.9 -6.1 47
Tampa Bay Carolina 2.7 2.6 2.5 50
Philadelphia San Francisco 16.9 15.9 17.9 49
Buffalo Oakland 3.3 3.0 4.2 45
Cincinnati Indianapolis 11.4 11.4 12.0 39
New England LA Chargers 6.7 7.5 6.5 45
Seattle Houston 6.3 5.9 6.5 44
Washington Dallas -1.1 -0.8 -0.9 53
Detroit Philadelphia -0.4 1.4 -1.5 49
Kansas City Denver 7.7 8.3 7.8 40

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 105.1 105.6 104.9 105.2 22 5-2-0
Buffalo 100.5 100.6 100.9 100.7 22 4-2-0
Miami 97.1 97.0 96.7 96.9 20 4-2-0
N. Y. Jets 93.6 93.2 93.8 93.6 19 3-4-0
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 105.3 105.4 105.4 105.4 20 5-2-0
Baltimore 100.1 100.6 100.0 100.2 19 3-4-0
Cincinnati 99.7 100.2 99.7 99.9 16 2-4-0
Cleveland 91.2 91.7 91.3 91.4 18 0-7-0
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Houston 101.3 101.5 101.0 101.3 25 3-3-0
Jacksonville 100.4 100.6 100.2 100.4 22 4-3-0
Tennessee 98.2 98.2 97.8 98.1 23 4-3-0
Indianapolis 90.9 91.3 90.2 90.8 23 2-5-0
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 104.8 105.2 105.1 105.0 22 5-2-0
LA Chargers 101.9 101.5 101.9 101.8 23 3-4-0
Oakland 100.7 101.2 100.1 100.7 23 3-4-0
Denver 100.2 99.8 100.3 100.1 18 3-3-0
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 105.0 103.8 106.0 104.9 24 6-1-0
Dallas 104.0 103.4 103.9 103.8 26 3-3-0
Washington 99.8 99.7 100.0 99.8 27 3-3-0
N.Y. Giants 99.2 99.3 98.9 99.2 15 1-6-0
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Detroit 101.6 102.1 101.5 101.8 25 3-3-0
Minnesota 100.4 100.6 100.5 100.5 17 5-2-0
Green Bay 100.5 100.8 100.1 100.5 22 4-3-0
Chicago 95.6 95.7 95.7 95.7 19 3-4-0
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 104.3 103.5 105.0 104.3 31 4-2-0
Atlanta 102.5 102.6 102.5 102.5 28 3-3-0
Carolina 99.9 99.5 100.1 99.8 25 4-3-0
Tampa Bay 99.6 99.1 99.7 99.5 25 2-4-0
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Seattle 104.6 104.5 104.4 104.5 19 4-2-0
LA Rams 98.7 98.3 99.2 98.7 22 5-2-0
Arizona 94.7 94.8 94.4 94.6 23 3-4-0
San Francisco 91.6 91.4 91.6 91.5 25 0-7-0

This Week’s NFL Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Pittsburgh  
2 New England  
3 Kansas City  
4 Houston  
5 Buffalo  
6 Miami  
       
NFC Seeding
1 Philadelphia  
2 LA Rams  
3 New Orleans  
4 Minnesota  
5 Seattle  
6 Carolina  
       
Wildcard Round
Miami over Kansas City
Houston over Buffalo
New Orleans over Carolina
Minnesota over Seattle
 
Divisional Round
Pittsburgh over Miami
New England over Houston
Philadelphia over Minnesota
LA Rams over New Orleans
 
Conference Championship
Pittsburgh over New England
Philadelphia over LA Rams
 
Super Bowl 52
Philadelphia over Pittsburgh

The big news in the NFL continues to hover around the fans boycotting the games, be it in person or on TV.  The protests are just one of multiple reasons for this, but the result is that the NFL has taken a huge financial hit, and the networks have been forced to award free advertising to sponsors in which they could not deliver to them certain minimum ratings.

We at the PiRate Ratings have never published a guest’s email, but because said guest gave us his permission, and because this particular guest is a verified football fanatic, this email, if ever read by NFL officials, should have them quaking in their boots.

We have slightly edited the email, only to remove proper names that could identify certain people.

The email follows in blue:

Hello PiRate Captain and Lasses.
Some of you know me. I went to high school and college with [PiRate Lass Name Deleted]. I have owned a personal seat license and season tickets to [Team deleted] since they have existed in their current city of residence. Until this season, I missed only two home games between 1998 and 2016, and I have seen them on the road eight times.
I took my vacation days at work to go on road trips, and to go to the NFL Draft multiple times. I paid over Two Grand to get a couple of Super Bowl Tickets to see [Teams deleted]. I foolishly purchased every new jersey every time the [Team deleted] .

As [PiRate Lass Name Deleted] probably knows, I have always opposed both the Democrats and Republicans. I worked for the Perot campaign in 1992, and I supported Pat Buchanan and Ralph Nader at different times. I saw my managerial position with [Company Deleted] leave when the company moved overseas to [Country Deleted] to receive cheap foreign labor.

I did not support President Trump when he ran in the primaries, namely because I am not registered to vote in my state’s primary, as I am independent. I thought he was a joke running for a publicity stunt so that he could return to TV with a bigger audience.
However, once he was elected, and I began witnessing the incredibly negative bias, it became obvious that the elite in our media were looking out only for their own financial gain and their retaining of power as the fifth estate.

When the NFL protesting of the flag and national anthem began, I didn’t really think much of it. But then, when I began reading blogs of people I respect and hearing my local radio host talking about the incorrect information being put out, followed by evidence that totally contradicted what the elite mainstream media put out, I did the following things.

1. I cut the cord in my house. We dropped our cable television service and turned in the equipment to [Company deleted].

2. Rather than sell or give away the tickets to the remaining [Team deleted] games, I tore them up and threw them in the garbage. I additionally informed the [Team Deleted] that I would not renew my tickets next year and forfeit my PSL. They did nothing, because until I fail to renew my tickets, the PSL stays in place. I can say with 100% certainty that I will not renew next year.

3. I donated all my [Team Deleted] apparel to the Goodwill drop-off near where I live.

4. I planned with my wife alternate activities for Sundays.

5. We ultimately stopped watching all regular network TV, and with our regular antenna, we now only watch ME TV, Antenna TV, Cozi, Comet, Buzzr, and Get TV. Most of what we watch is in black and white and was produced before 1965.

Even if the NFL bends over backward to make things right again, they have lost me as a patron. I never realized how much better a Sunday can be when I didn’t sit on a couch from 11 AM until 11 PM watching NFL Pre-game shows and three games. First of all, the games had become quite boring. There is no imagination. The [Team Deleted] seems to have 4 basic plays–run the ball between the tackles on a dive, throw short, throw medium-short, and throw medium.
It’s not like the 1960’s AFL when you had the most fun football ever. It isn’t even like the 1990’s when you had some gunslingers, some finesse running, and multiple different types of offenses and defenses.
What have I been doing this year on Sundays rather than sit on a couch with my lunch spread and casual supper? On most weeks, I have discovered the joy of hiking on trails in wooded areas, either with my wife or with my wife and a group of new friends I found through the Meetup Group we discovered online. We even joined a local hiking club that goes on out of town hikes and has monthly meetings at one of our local parks.
On one weekend, we visited the botanical garden we had never been to, even though it is just 2 miles from our home. We loved it so much, we purchased a membership. We have also been to the zoo twice, and like the garden, we just purchased a membership there as well.

On four Sunday nights, we have joined friends for group dinners, and we talked about almost anything but football. We came to a group conclusion that sums up our new paradigm shift: It is much more entertaining and enriching to be a participant in something than to be part of the audience while others do something.

Last weekend, I didn’t even watch college football. The weather was just perfect to take a canoe trip on the river, and we joined friends canoeing 14 miles down the [River Deleted]. It took all day, and we stopped a few times, enjoying a picnic lunch at one of the pullout spots. We arrived at the end point just as the sun was setting behind the hills, and then we stopped at a family-owned restaurant off the beaten path for some of the finest comfort food I have ever eaten that wasn’t prepared by my wife, mother, or mother-in-law.

I don’t know how many others have done the same as me, but according to [Radio Host Name Deleted], the NFL Stadiums look almost half-empty these days. The TV ratings are so down that the networks are having to award free ads to some of the sponsors.
I think the actual number one change that has come this year is that most of the educated nation now realizes that our elitist media is a complete joke not to be trusted as a legitimate news source. Once you break free from their propaganda, you realize so many truths that you didn’t know before.

I am sure that my life has been enhanced. I want to thank those football players for protesting and driving me away from watching them play at the expense of my having real recreational fun. I have lost 12 pounds since Labor Day, and I feel really healthy for the first time in 20 years. Best of all, my Mondays are no longer the terrible return to the working world like they once were. I am alive, fresh, peppy, and ready to do my work on Mondays, because I have had my fill of exercise and fresh air for 48 hours. I have new friends, and I have a happier outlook.
I hope this has not bored you. I also hope that you and all the PiRates will consider joining me in my newfound experiences and get out and enjoy nature. A couple of deep breaths atop a mountain overlooking a lake and valley is worth more than 50-yard line seats at every Super Bowl ever played or to be played.

Thank You
[Name Deleted & City Deleted]

 

 

 

October 17, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 7: October 18-22, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Oakland Kansas City -1.6 -1.2 -2.4 42
Cleveland Tennessee -4.3 -3.9 -3.8 44
Indianapolis Jacksonville -2.2 -2.0 -2.7 49
Pittsburgh Cincinnati 7.2 7.0 7.0 36
Minnesota Baltimore 2.7 2.5 2.6 36
Miami N. Y. Jets 6.7 7.0 6.1 36
Buffalo Tampa Bay 3.9 4.5 4.4 45
Chicago Carolina -3.3 -2.6 -3.9 47
Green Bay New Orleans 2.3 3.6 1.7 56
LA Rams (London) Arizona -1.7 -2.1 -1.2 47
San Franciso Dallas -6.5 -6.4 -6.2 51
N. Y. Giants Seattle 1.9 1.6 2.1 34
LA Chargers Denver -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 43
New England Atlanta 3.9 4.6 3.6 53
Philadelphia Washington 6.7 5.9 7.4 49

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 104.3 104.9 104.0 104.4 23 4-2-0
Buffalo 100.5 100.6 101.0 100.7 21 3-2-0
Miami 97.3 97.2 96.9 97.1 18 3-2-0
N. Y. Jets 93.6 93.2 93.8 93.6 18 3-3-0
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 104.8 105.0 104.8 104.9 20 4-2-0
Baltimore 100.4 100.8 100.4 100.5 19 3-3-0
Cincinnati 100.1 100.5 100.2 100.3 16 2-3-0
Cleveland 91.1 91.6 91.2 91.3 19 0-6-0
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Houston 100.9 101.1 100.6 100.9 25 3-3-0
Jacksonville 98.4 98.6 98.2 98.4 24 3-3-0
Tennessee 98.4 98.4 98.0 98.3 25 3-3-0
Indianapolis 93.2 93.6 92.5 93.1 25 2-4-0
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 105.0 105.3 105.3 105.2 21 5-1-0
Denver 102.0 101.6 102.1 101.9 19 3-2-0
Oakland 100.5 101.1 99.9 100.5 21 2-4-0
LA Chargers 99.6 99.2 99.6 99.5 24 2-4-0
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 104.8 103.7 105.7 104.7 23 5-1-0
Dallas 102.3 101.8 102.1 102.1 26 2-3-0
N.Y. Giants 101.2 101.1 101.1 101.2 15 1-5-0
Washington 100.0 99.8 100.3 100.0 26 3-2-0
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Green Bay 102.3 102.7 102.1 102.4 25 4-2-0
Detroit 101.2 101.7 101.1 101.4 25 3-3-0
Minnesota 100.0 100.3 100.0 100.1 17 4-2-0
Chicago 94.7 95.0 94.6 94.8 21 2-4-0
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Atlanta 103.3 103.3 103.4 103.3 30 3-2-0
New Orleans 103.0 102.1 103.5 102.9 31 3-2-0
Carolina 101.1 100.5 101.5 101.0 26 4-2-0
Tampa Bay 99.6 99.1 99.6 99.4 24 2-3-0
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Seattle 102.9 103.0 102.5 102.8 19 3-2-0
Arizona 97.5 97.5 97.3 97.4 25 3-3-0
LA Rams 95.7 95.4 96.1 95.7 22 4-2-0
San Francisco 93.3 93.0 93.4 93.2 25 0-6-0

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Kansas City
2 New England
3 Pittsburgh
4 Houston
5 Denver
6 Miami
   
NFC Seeding
1 Philadelphia
2 Carolina
3 Los Angeles
4 Minnesota
5 Atlanta
6 Washington
Wildcard Round
Pittsburgh over Miami
Houston over Denver
Los Angeles over Washington
Atlanta over Minnesota
 
Divisional Round
Kansas City over Houston
Pittsburgh over New England
Philadelphia over Atlanta
Los Angeles over Carolina
 
Conference Championship
Kansas City over Pittsburgh
Philadelphia over Los Angeles
 
Super Bowl 52
Philadelphia over Kansas City

 

 

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