The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 19, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 16: December 23-25, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Baltimore Indianapolis 16.5 16.3 17.2 44
Green Bay Minnesota -6.3 -5.3 -7.6 39
Cincinnati Detroit -3.7 -3.3 -4.0 43
N. Y. Jets LA Chargers -6.6 -6.6 -6.8 41
Tennessee LA Rams -6.9 -6.0 -8.1 47
Chicago Cleveland 7.9 7.3 11.0 34
Carolina Tampa Bay 8.8 8.0 9.2 49
New Orleans Atlanta 6.0 5.7 6.4 55
Washington Denver 4.5 4.7 4.3 43
Kansas City Miami 9.8 9.7 10.5 44
New England Buffalo 14.2 13.9 14.2 42
San Francisco Jacksonville -7.3 -7.4 -7.5 45
Arizona N. Y. Giants 5.6 5.1 5.8 41
Dallas Seattle 4.1 3.5 4.8 45
Houston Pittsburgh -10.2 -10.1 -11.0 45
Philadelphia Oakland 12.9 11.0 14.8 47

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 108.0 108.1 108.1 108.0 22 11-3
Buffalo 96.3 96.6 96.4 96.4 20 8-6
Miami 96.1 96.2 95.6 96.0 21 6-8
N. Y. Jets 94.3 94.0 94.4 94.3 18 5-9
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Baltimore 105.9 106.1 106.1 106.0 22 8-6
Pittsburgh 105.6 105.7 105.8 105.7 23 11-3
Cincinnati 94.2 95.0 93.8 94.4 16 5-9
Cleveland 91.0 91.7 88.1 90.2 17 0-14
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 104.9 104.7 105.1 104.9 22 10-4
Tennessee 97.6 97.8 97.2 97.5 22 8-6
Houston 92.4 92.6 91.8 92.3 22 4-10
Indianapolis 91.9 92.3 91.3 91.8 22 3-11
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Chargers 104.5 104.1 104.7 104.4 23 7-7
Kansas City 102.8 102.9 103.2 103.0 23 8-6
Oakland 97.5 98.1 96.7 97.4 22 6-8
Denver 96.1 95.9 96.0 96.0 19 5-9
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 106.9 105.6 108.0 106.8 25 12-2
Dallas 102.9 102.4 102.9 102.8 24 8-6
Washington 97.5 97.7 97.3 97.5 24 6-8
N.Y. Giants 93.0 93.5 92.7 93.1 20 2-12
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Minnesota 106.9 106.5 107.6 107.0 18 11-3
Detroit 100.5 100.8 100.3 100.6 27 8-6
Green Bay 98.7 99.2 98.0 98.6 21 7-7
Chicago 96.4 96.5 96.5 96.5 17 4-10
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 107.2 106.6 107.7 107.2 29 10-4
Atlanta 104.1 103.9 104.3 104.1 26 9-5
Carolina 103.5 102.7 104.0 103.4 27 10-4
Tampa Bay 97.2 97.2 97.4 97.3 22 4-10
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 107.5 106.8 108.3 107.5 25 10-4
Seattle 101.8 102.0 101.1 101.6 21 8-6
Arizona 95.7 95.6 95.5 95.6 21 6-8
San Francisco 94.5 94.3 94.6 94.5 23 4-10

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 New England
2 Pittsburgh
3 Jacksonville
4 Kansas City
5 Baltimore
6 LA Chargers
   
NFC Seeding
1 Philadelphia
2 Minnesota
3 LA Rams
4 New Orleans
5 Carolina
6 Atlanta
Wildcard Round
Jacksonville over LA Chargers
Baltimore over Kansas City
LA Rams over Atlanta
New Orleans over Carolina
 
Divisional Round
New England over Baltimore
Pittsburgh over Jacksonville
New Orleans over Philadelphia
Minnesota over LA Rams
 
Conference Championship
Pittsburgh over New England
Minnesota over New Orleans
 
Super Bowl 52
Pittsburgh over Minnesota

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

December 5, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 14: December 7-11, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Atlanta New Orleans -1.0 -0.5 -1.4 57
Buffalo Indianapolis 6.3 6.5 6.7 42
Carolina Minnesota 0.1 0.0 -0.2 43
Cincinnati Chicago 7.5 7.9 7.3 35
Cleveland Green Bay -4.4 -4.3 -4.0 38
Houston San Francisco 6.9 7.2 6.7 45
Kansas City Oakland 5.6 5.5 6.3 46
Tampa Bay Detroit 0.4 -0.3 0.8 49
N. Y. Giants Dallas -3.5 -2.8 -3.7 42
Arizona Tennessee -0.1 0.2 0.0 46
Denver N. Y. Jets 0.0 0.4 -0.6 40
LA Chargers Washington 9.7 9.2 10.2 50
Jacksonville Seattle 0.9 1.0 1.3 41
LA Rams Philadelphia -1.1 -0.4 -1.7 47
Pittsburgh Baltimore 2.4 2.1 2.4 43
Miami New England -11.9 -11.6 -12.7 43

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 109.6 109.5 109.9 109.6 22 10-2
Buffalo 96.1 96.5 96.1 96.2 20 6-6
N. Y. Jets 96.2 95.8 96.4 96.2 20 5-7
Miami 94.7 94.9 94.1 94.6 21 5-7
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Baltimore 105.7 106.0 105.8 105.8 21 7-5
Pittsburgh 105.5 105.6 105.7 105.6 22 10-2
Cincinnati 98.8 99.4 98.6 99.0 17 5-7
Cleveland 91.0 91.7 90.9 91.2 17 0-12
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 102.1 102.1 102.1 102.1 21 8-4
Tennessee 98.1 98.0 97.8 98.0 23 8-4
Houston 96.6 96.7 96.3 96.5 22 4-8
Indianapolis 92.8 93.1 92.3 92.7 22 3-9
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Chargers 104.8 104.2 105.1 104.7 23 6-6
Kansas City 100.5 101.0 100.6 100.7 23 6-6
Oakland 98.0 98.5 97.3 97.9 23 6-6
Denver 93.2 93.2 92.9 93.1 20 3-9
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 109.2 107.9 110.5 109.2 24 10-2
Dallas 100.6 100.3 100.4 100.5 24 6-6
Washington 98.0 98.1 97.9 98.0 27 5-7
N.Y. Giants 94.6 95.0 94.2 94.6 18 2-10
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Minnesota 105.8 105.3 106.6 105.9 17 10-2
Detroit 100.2 100.7 99.9 100.3 27 6-6
Green Bay 98.0 98.4 97.3 97.9 21 6-6
Chicago 93.8 94.1 93.8 93.9 18 3-9
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 107.7 107.0 108.2 107.6 30 9-3
Atlanta 103.6 103.5 103.8 103.6 27 7-5
Carolina 103.0 102.3 103.4 102.9 26 8-4
Tampa Bay 97.6 97.4 97.8 97.6 22 4-8
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 105.1 104.5 105.8 105.1 23 9-3
Seattle 104.7 104.6 104.3 104.5 20 8-4
Arizona 95.1 95.2 94.8 95.0 23 5-7
San Francisco 92.7 92.6 92.6 92.6 23 2-10

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 New England
2 Pittsburgh
3 Jacksonville
4 LA Chargers
5 Tennessee
6 Baltimore
   
NFC Seeding
1 Minnesota
2 Philadelphia
3 Los Angeles
4 New Orleans
5 Seattle
6 Carolina
Wildcard Round
Baltimore over Jacksonville
LA Chargers over Tennessee
LA Rams over Carolina
New Orleans over Seattle
 
Divisional Round
New England over Baltimore
LA Chargers over Pittsburgh
Minnesota over New Orleans
Philadelphia over LA Rams
 
Conference Championship
New England over LA Chargers
Minnesota over Philadelphia
 
Super Bowl 52
New England over Minnesota

 

November 28, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 13: November 30-December 4, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Dallas Washington 2.8 3.0 2.4 51
Baltimore Detroit 5.3 5.4 5.3 45
Chicago San Francisco 6.2 6.4 6.5 43
Atlanta Minnesota 2.5 2.7 2.1 47
Buffalo New England -8.9 -8.5 -9.0 45
Miami Denver -0.4 -0.2 -0.6 41
Tennessee Houston 3.5 3.5 3.3 45
Jacksonville Indianapolis 10.5 10.4 10.8 43
Green Bay Tampa Bay 3.6 4.2 3.0 43
N. Y. Jets Kansas City -3.0 -3.9 -2.8 41
New Orleans Carolina 7.0 7.2 6.8 56
LA Chargers Cleveland 17.3 16.1 17.7 42
Arizona LA Rams -5.7 -4.9 -6.6 46
Oakland N. Y. Giants 6.1 6.5 5.7 41
Seattle Philadelphia -5.1 -3.3 -6.8 46
Cincinnati Pittsburgh -4.8 -4.3 -5.1 39

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 108.7 108.7 108.9 108.7 23 9-2
Buffalo 96.8 97.1 96.9 96.9 22 6-5
N. Y. Jets 95.5 95.1 95.7 95.5 20 4-7
Miami 92.4 92.6 91.8 92.3 21 4-7
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 105.8 105.9 106.0 105.9 22 9-2
Baltimore 104.1 104.6 104.0 104.2 19 6-5
Cincinnati 98.5 99.1 98.3 98.7 17 5-6
Cleveland 90.6 91.3 90.5 90.8 19 0-11
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 101.3 101.4 101.2 101.3 21 7-4
Tennessee 97.6 97.6 97.2 97.5 23 7-4
Houston 97.1 97.1 96.9 97.0 22 4-7
Indianapolis 93.8 94.0 93.4 93.7 22 3-8
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Chargers 104.9 104.3 105.2 104.8 23 5-6
Kansas City 101.5 102.0 101.6 101.7 21 6-5
Oakland 97.9 98.5 97.1 97.8 23 5-6
Denver 95.8 95.8 95.5 95.7 20 3-8
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 111.0 109.4 112.3 110.9 25 10-1
Washington 99.5 99.4 99.6 99.5 27 5-6
Dallas 99.4 99.3 99.0 99.3 24 5-6
N.Y. Giants 94.7 95.0 94.4 94.7 18 2-9
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Minnesota 104.8 104.4 105.5 104.9 18 9-2
Detroit 101.8 102.1 101.7 101.9 26 6-5
Green Bay 98.1 98.5 97.5 98.0 21 5-6
Chicago 94.6 94.8 94.7 94.7 19 3-8
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 107.2 106.6 107.6 107.1 30 8-3
Atlanta 104.3 104.1 104.6 104.3 29 7-4
Carolina 103.2 102.4 103.7 103.1 26 8-3
Tampa Bay 97.5 97.3 97.6 97.5 22 4-7
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 104.4 103.8 105.1 104.4 23 8-3
Seattle 102.9 103.1 102.5 102.8 21 7-4
Arizona 95.8 95.9 95.5 95.7 23 5-6
San Francisco 91.9 91.9 91.7 91.8 24 1-10

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding AFC
1 New England 1  
2 Pittsburgh 2  
3 Jacksonville 3  
4 LA Chargers 4  
5 Baltimore 5  
6 Tennessee 6  
       
NFC Seeding NFC
1 Philadelphia 1  
2 Minnesota 2  
3 LA Rams 3  
4 New Orleans 4  
5 Carolina 5  
6 Seattle 6  
Wildcard Round
Jacksonville over Tennessee
LA Chargers over Baltimore
LA Rams over Seattle
Carolina over New Orleans
 
Divisional Round
New England over LA Chargers
Pittsburgh over Jacksonville
Philadelphia over Carolina
LA Rams over Minnesota
 
Conference Championship
Pittsburgh over New England
Philadelphia over LA Rams
 
Super Bowl 52
Philadelphia over Pittsburgh

 

 

November 20, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 12: November 23-27, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Detroit Minnesota 2.1 2.6 1.5 44
Dallas LA Chargers 1.1 1.2 0.8 47
Washington N. Y. Giants 6.9 6.7 7.3 45
Cincinnati Cleveland 9.5 9.5 9.5 36
Philadelphia Chicago 17.3 15.5 18.5 44
New England Miami 19.5 19.3 20.2 44
Kansas City Buffalo 12.1 12.1 12.0 45
Atlanta Tampa Bay 9.5 9.4 9.6 51
N. Y. Jets Carolina -4.0 -3.9 -4.4 44
Indianapolis Tennessee -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 46
San Francisco Seattle -7.5 -8.0 -7.2 45
LA Rams New Orleans -1.1 -0.8 -1.3 53
Arizona Jacksonville -3.7 -3.5 -4.1 42
Oakland Denver 4.8 5.3 4.4 45
Pittsburgh Green Bay 11.8 11.4 12.5 41
Baltimore Houston 10.4 10.8 10.5 41

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 108.8 108.8 109.0 108.8 23 8-2
N. Y. Jets 95.8 95.3 96.0 95.7 19 4-6
Buffalo 94.9 95.2 95.0 95.0 23 5-5
Miami 92.3 92.5 91.7 92.2 21 4-6
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 106.3 106.4 106.5 106.4 21 8-2
Baltimore 104.3 104.8 104.2 104.4 19 5-5
Cincinnati 98.3 98.9 98.1 98.5 17 4-6
Cleveland 90.8 91.5 90.7 91.0 19 0-10
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 101.9 101.9 101.9 101.9 20 7-3
Tennessee 97.4 97.5 96.9 97.3 23 6-4
Houston 96.9 96.9 96.7 96.8 22 4-6
Indianapolis 94.0 94.1 93.7 93.9 23 3-7
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 103.9 104.4 104.0 104.1 22 6-4
LA Chargers 103.2 102.8 103.3 103.1 23 4-6
Oakland 97.9 98.5 97.1 97.8 23 4-6
Denver 96.1 96.1 95.8 96.0 22 3-7
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 109.7 108.1 111.0 109.6 25 9-1
Dallas 101.3 101.0 101.1 101.2 24 5-5
Washington 99.3 99.3 99.4 99.3 27 4-6
N.Y. Giants 94.9 95.1 94.6 94.9 18 2-8
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Minnesota 103.5 103.2 104.1 103.6 18 8-2
Detroit 102.6 102.8 102.6 102.7 26 6-4
Green Bay 97.6 98.0 97.0 97.5 20 5-5
Chicago 95.4 95.6 95.5 95.5 19 3-7
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 107.9 107.1 108.5 107.8 30 8-2
Atlanta 104.1 103.9 104.4 104.1 29 6-4
Carolina 102.9 102.2 103.4 102.8 25 7-3
Tampa Bay 97.7 97.5 97.8 97.7 22 4-6
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 103.7 103.3 104.2 103.7 23 7-3
Seattle 102.7 103.0 102.2 102.6 21 6-4
Arizona 95.2 95.4 94.8 95.1 22 4-6
San Francisco 92.1 92.0 92.0 92.0 24 1-9

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 New England
2 Pittsburgh
3 Jacksonville
4 LA Chargers
5 Kansas City
6 Baltimore
   
NFC Seeding
1 Philadelphia
2 New Orleans
3 LA Rams
4 Minnesota
5 Carolina
6 Seattle
Wildcard Round
Baltimore over Jacksonville
LA Chargers over Kansas City
LA Rams over Seattle
Carolina over Minnesota
 
Divisional Round
New England over Baltimore
Pittsburgh over LA Chargers
Philadelphia over Carolina
New Orleans over LA Rams
 
Conference Championship
Pittsburgh over New England
Philadelphia over New Orleans
 
Super Bowl 52
Philadelphia over Pittsburgh

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 14, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 11: November 16-20, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Pittsburgh Tennessee 9.5 9.9 9.8 42
Chicago Detroit -4.5 -4.6 -4.4 45
N.Y. Giants Kansas City -7.5 -7.6 -8.3 42
Miami Tampa Bay -2.0 -1.8 -2.4 43
Green Bay Baltimore -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 41
Minnesota LA Rams 0.4 0.7 0.3 43
Houston Arizona 3.9 4.1 3.6 44
Cleveland Jacksonville -7.7 -7.0 -7.9 38
New Orleans Washington 12.7 11.9 13.5 57
LA Chargers Buffalo 9.1 8.6 8.9 44
Denver Cincinnati 1.6 0.6 1.6 39
Oakland New England -4.4 -4.2 -5.0 46
Dallas Philadelphia -0.9 -0.1 -2.2 49
Seattle Atlanta 2.1 2.5 1.7 48

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 107.2 107.4 107.2 107.2 23 7-2
Buffalo 96.4 96.6 96.6 96.5 22 5-4
N. Y. Jets 95.5 95.0 95.7 95.4 19 4-6
Miami 93.0 93.1 92.5 92.9 21 4-5
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 105.2 105.5 105.2 105.3 19 7-2
Baltimore 102.6 103.2 102.4 102.7 19 4-5
Cincinnati 97.9 98.7 97.6 98.1 17 3-6
Cleveland 91.0 91.7 90.9 91.2 20 0-9
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 101.7 101.7 101.7 101.7 21 6-3
Tennessee 98.7 98.6 98.4 98.6 23 6-3
Houston 96.5 96.7 96.1 96.4 22 3-6
Indianapolis 93.7 93.8 93.4 93.6 23 3-7
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 104.5 104.9 104.8 104.7 23 6-3
LA Chargers 102.0 101.7 102.0 101.9 22 3-6
Oakland 99.3 99.7 98.7 99.2 23 4-5
Denver 96.5 96.3 96.3 96.4 22 3-6
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 107.6 106.2 108.8 107.5 25 8-1
Dallas 103.7 103.2 103.6 103.5 24 5-4
Washington 98.8 98.9 98.8 98.8 27 4-5
N.Y. Giants 94.5 94.8 94.0 94.5 19 1-8
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Detroit 102.5 102.7 102.5 102.6 26 5-4
Minnesota 102.2 102.0 102.7 102.3 19 7-2
Green Bay 99.5 99.8 99.0 99.4 22 5-4
Chicago 95.5 95.7 95.6 95.6 19 3-6
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 108.6 107.7 109.3 108.5 30 7-2
Atlanta 103.9 103.8 104.1 103.9 28 5-4
Carolina 102.6 101.9 103.1 102.5 25 7-3
Tampa Bay 97.0 96.9 97.0 97.0 22 3-6
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 104.8 104.3 105.4 104.8 24 7-2
Seattle 103.1 103.3 102.7 103.0 20 6-3
Arizona 95.6 95.6 95.4 95.5 22 4-5
San Francisco 91.8 91.7 91.7 91.7 24 1-9

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Pittsburgh
2 New England
3 Kansas City
4 Jacksonville
5 Tennessee
6 Baltimore
NFC Seeding
1 Philadelphia
2 LA Rams
3 New Orleans
4 Minnesota
5 Carolina
6 Seattle
Wildcard Round
Kansas City over Baltimore
Jacksonville over Tennessee
New Orleans over Seattle
Carolina over Minnesota
 
Divisional Round
Pittsburgh over Jacksonville
New England over Kansas City
Philadelphia over Carolina
New Orleans over LA Rams
 
Conference Championship
New England over Pittsburgh
Philadelphia over New Orleans
 
Super Bowl 52
New England over Philadelphia

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 7, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 10: November 9-13, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Arizona Seattle -4.3 -4.5 -4.1 42
Washington Minnesota 1.7 1.6 1.6 44
Chicago Green Bay -0.7 -1.4 0.0 41
Indianapolis Pittsburgh -9.8 -9.7 -10.3 42
Jacksonville LA Chargers 3.4 3.6 3.4 44
Tampa Bay N. Y. Jets 4.4 4.9 3.8 43
Tennessee Cincinnati 3.8 2.9 3.7 40
Buffalo New Orleans -2.2 -1.1 -2.7 52
Detroit Cleveland 14.3 13.9 14.4 42
LA Rams Houston 6.2 5.7 7.0 48
Atlanta Dallas -0.7 0.1 -0.9 54
San Francisco N. Y. Giants -2.5 -2.6 -2.5 41
Denver New England -4.1 -4.8 -3.9 43
Carolina Miami 9.8 9.2 10.6 43

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 105.3 105.7 105.1 105.3 22 6-2
Buffalo 99.9 100.1 100.1 100.0 22 5-3
N. Y. Jets 95.5 95.0 95.9 95.5 20 4-5
Miami 94.4 94.4 94.0 94.3 20 4-4
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 105.7 105.9 105.9 105.9 19 6-2
Baltimore 102.3 102.9 102.1 102.4 19 4-5
Cincinnati 97.9 98.7 97.6 98.1 17 3-5
Cleveland 91.0 91.7 90.9 91.2 18 0-8
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 101.8 101.8 101.8 101.8 22 5-3
Houston 99.2 99.3 98.9 99.1 24 3-5
Tennessee 98.7 98.6 98.4 98.6 23 5-3
Indianapolis 93.5 93.7 93.0 93.4 23 3-6
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 104.2 104.6 104.5 104.4 23 6-3
LA Chargers 101.9 101.6 101.9 101.8 22 3-5
Oakland 99.0 99.4 98.4 98.9 23 4-5
Denver 98.2 97.8 98.2 98.1 21 3-5
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 107.3 105.9 108.5 107.2 25 8-1
Dallas 105.9 105.2 106.0 105.7 26 5-3
Washington 99.7 99.6 99.9 99.7 26 4-4
N.Y. Giants 95.9 96.0 95.6 95.9 17 1-7
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Detroit 102.8 103.0 102.8 102.9 24 4-4
Minnesota 101.0 101.0 101.3 101.1 18 6-2
Green Bay 99.3 99.8 98.7 99.3 22 4-4
Chicago 96.0 96.0 96.2 96.1 19 3-5
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 105.1 104.2 105.8 105.0 30 6-2
Atlanta 102.2 102.3 102.2 102.2 28 4-4
Carolina 101.2 100.6 101.6 101.1 23 6-3
Tampa Bay 97.0 96.9 96.8 96.9 23 2-6
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Seattle 103.0 103.2 102.6 102.9 20 5-3
LA Rams 102.4 102.0 102.9 102.4 24 6-2
Arizona 95.7 95.7 95.5 95.6 22 4-4
San Francisco 90.4 90.5 90.1 90.3 24 0-9

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Pittsburgh
2 New England
3 Kansas City
4 Jacksonville
5 Buffalo
6 Tennessee
   
NFC Seeding
1 Philadelphia
2 LA Rams
3 New Orleans
4 Minnesota
5 Seattle
6 Dallas
Wildcard Round
Kansas City over Tennessee
Jacksonville over Buffalo
New Orleans over Dallas
Seattle over Minnesota
 
Divisional Round
Pittsburgh over Jacksonville
New England over Kansas City
Philadelphia over Seattle
LA Rams over New Orleans
 
Conference Championship
Pittsburgh over New England
Philadelphia over LA Rams
 
Super Bowl 52
Philadelphia over Pittsburgh

 

 

 

 

 

 

February 1, 2017

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Super Bowl LI: February 1, 2017

We present our Super Bowl LI preview a few days later than originally planned, but we decided that 100 computer simulations were not enough.  Over the last several days, we have visited the big bits and bytes to run numerous simulations on the big game.  We stopped at 10,000, the going rate among other simulators out there.

After running the first 100, we recorded the results to see how much different the results from 10,000 simulations.  What we found was that one metric definitely and consistently came through in both 100 and 10,000 sims that could be used by somebody unconcerned with losing a lot of their investment.  See below for the shocking revelation concerning this game and the Las Vegas Books.

Let’s get on with the data.

Super Bowl LI

Date: Sunday, February 5, 2017

Time: 6:30 PM EST

Place: Houston, TX

TV: Fox Sports

Radio: Westwood One

Find Your Affiliate Here

Online: Foxsports.com

AFC Champion: New England Patriots 16-2-0

NFC Champion: Atlanta Falcons 13-5-0

 

Las Vegas Info

Current Line (2/1/17 @ 10AM EST): New England by 3

Totals Line: 59

Money Line: New England -155, Atlanta +135

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate: New England by 2.4

Mean: New England by 0.6

Bias: New England by 3.2

Average: New England by 2

Total: 60

 

10,000 Simulations

The winner when we simulated 100 times was the same as the winner when we simulated 10,000 times.  The average margin minimally changed between 100 and 10,000 sims.

The standard deviation went down a little with 10,000 sims, but that was to be expected with so many more sims.

What surprised us was the definite deviation between the Total Points and the Vegas Total, and it is so wide that we felt compelled to highlight this even though we BEG you not to bet on this game using our data and cannot stress enough that we bet $0 on sporting events.

 

Wins: New England 53.9%  Atlanta 46.1%

Percentage going to overtime: 0.87%

Average Score: New England 24.3  Atlanta 23.2  ***47.5 points***

St Deviation: 7.3 (almost 2 deviations difference in Vegas Total)

Outlier A: New England 34  Atlanta 7

Outlier B: Atlanta 29  New England 10

Percentage of outcomes under 59 total points: 87.78%

If you haven’t caught on, the computer simulator says that about 7 out of every 8 times these two teams would face off in Houston, the total score would be less than 59 points.

This disagrees with our own PiRate Rating expected total of 60, but our totals have been totally pitiful this year.  I would trust this simulator over our own ratings.

 

So, we would make the UNDER 59 our best advice for this game, but once again we beg, urge, and plead with you not to wager money using the information we supply to you.  We are in this just for fun.

January 17, 2017

NFL Ratings And Spreads For NFL Conference Championships: January 22, 2017

SUNDAY, JANUARY 22, 2017

NFC Championship

Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers

Time: 3:05 PM EST

TV: Fox Sports Network

Radio: Westwood One  

Find Your Local Westwoon One Affiliate at: http://westwoodonesports.com/stations/

Line: Atlanta by 4 1/2 or 5 (changing rapidly)

Total: 61

PiRate Ratings Spreads

PiRate: Atlanta by 7.4

Mean: Atlanta by 8.2

Bias: Atlanta by 7.7

PiRate Total: 67

 

100 Simulations

Atlanta wins: 56

Green Bay wins: 44

Average Score: Atlanta 34  Green Bay 32

Outlier A: Atlanta 45  Green Bay 23

Outlier B: Green Bay 48  Atlanta 27

 

AFC Championship

New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Time: 6:40 PM EST

TV: CBS

Radio: Westwood One  

Find Your Local Westwood One Affiliate at: http://westwoodonesports.com/stations/

 

Line: New England by 5 1/2 or 6 (changing rapidly)

Total: 51

 

PiRate Ratings Spreads

PiRate: New England by 9.4

Mean: New England by 8.4

Bias: New England by 9.6

Total: 47

 

100 Simulations

New England wins 48

Pittsburgh wins 52

Average Score: New England 26  Pittsburgh 26

Outlier A: New England 41  Pittsburgh 20

Outlier B: Pittsburgh 24  New England 7

November 15, 2016

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Week 11: November 17-21, 2016

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
New England 109.5 108.1 110.5 109.4 67 42
Buffalo 103.4 103.5 103.9 103.6 64 40
Miami 97.9 98.2 98.0 98.0 60 38
N. Y. Jets 97.7 96.6 98.1 97.5 58 40
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Pittsburgh 102.3 102.3 102.9 102.5 62 41
Cincinnati 101.8 101.5 102.0 101.8 61 41
Baltimore 99.2 100.5 98.9 99.5 61 39
Cleveland 88.2 89.0 87.8 88.3 55 33
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Houston 98.1 99.0 97.9 98.3 61 37
Tennessee 97.8 99.1 97.5 98.1 61 37
Indianapolis 97.8 99.0 97.4 98.1 62 36
Jacksonville 92.9 94.5 92.2 93.2 58 35
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Denver 105.6 104.3 105.3 105.0 63 42
Kansas City 104.3 104.2 104.8 104.4 64 40
Oakland 100.3 100.7 100.7 100.6 66 35
San Diego 99.6 100.4 99.4 99.8 65 35
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Dallas 103.6 102.7 104.2 103.5 63 41
Philadelphia 103.5 101.9 103.3 102.9 63 40
Washington 100.6 100.3 100.7 100.5 62 39
N.Y. Giants 99.4 99.0 99.6 99.3 62 37
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Minnesota 102.6 101.9 102.4 102.3 59 43
Detroit 99.2 98.9 99.1 99.1 61 38
Green Bay 99.1 99.2 98.7 99.0 62 37
Chicago 93.6 92.4 93.2 93.1 56 37
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Atlanta 103.5 104.5 103.5 103.8 69 35
Carolina 103.1 103.0 103.1 103.1 62 41
New Orleans 100.2 101.3 100.3 100.6 67 34
Tampa Bay 97.0 97.5 96.7 97.1 61 36
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Seattle 107.7 105.2 108.4 107.1 63 44
Arizona 104.2 102.7 104.3 103.7 65 39
Los Angeles 98.8 99.5 98.7 99.0 57 42
San Francisco 89.6 90.8 88.9 89.8 54 36

This Week’s Games

November 17-21, 2016
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Carolina New Orleans 5.9 4.7 5.8 55
Cincinnati Buffalo 0.9 0.5 0.6 46
Cleveland Pittsburgh -9.6 -10.8 -12.6 45
Dallas Baltimore 7.4 5.2 8.3 46
Detroit Jacksonville 9.3 7.4 9.9 48
Indianapolis Tennessee 3.0 2.9 2.9 52
Kansas City Tampa Bay 10.3 9.7 10.9 51
Minnesota Arizona 1.4 2.2 1.1 42
New York Giants Chicago 8.8 9.6 9.4 46
Los Angeles Miami 3.9 4.3 3.7 39
San Francisco New England -16.9 -14.3 -18.6 45
Seattle Philadelphia 7.2 6.3 8.1 44
Washington Green Bay 4.5 4.1 5.0 50
Oakland (m) Houston 5.2 1.7 2.8 57
           
(m) Game played in Mexico City

If Playoffs Began Today

AFC
1 New England
2 Kansas City
3 Houston
4 Baltimore
5 Oakland
6 Denver
   
NFC
1 Dallas
2 Seattle
3 Atlanta
4 Detroit
5 N.Y. Giants
6 Washington

PiRate Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 New England
2 Kansas City
3 Indianapolis
4 Baltimore
5 Oakland
6 Denver
   
NFC Seeding
1 Seattle
2 Dallas
3 Atlanta
4 Detroit
5 Washington
6 N.Y. Giants

Projected Playoff Results

Wildcard Round
Denver over Indianapolis
Oakland over Baltimore
N.Y. Giants over Atlanta
Washington over Detroit
 
Divisional Round
New England over Denver
Oakland over Kansas City
Seattle over N.Y. Giants
Dallas over Washington
 
Conference Championship
Oakland over New England
Dallas over Seattle
 
Super Bowl 51
Dallas over Oakland

 

February 6, 2016

PiRate Ratings Super Bowl Preview

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:19 am

We have done something we’ve never done before for Super Bowl 50.  Normally, when we run computer simulations, we run them 100 times.  It take about .1 second to run it 100 times.  Last night, after inputting the statistical data and weather forecast, we ran the simulation 10,000 times.  It took much longer, almost .3 second.  We then ran it again subbing Brock Osweiler for Peyton Manning, simulating a Manning injury or inability to perform as acceptable levels.  To be fair, we then ran it again with Cam Newton leaving the game in the second quarter due to injury, just to see how the game was affected.

What we found out is rather obvious:  Newton is much more valuable to the Panthers than Manning is to the Broncos.  With Manning leaving the game at halftime and Osweiler entering in the second half, Denver’s percentage of winning the game fell by just 2.7%.  With Newton leaving the game and unable to play in the second half, Carolina scored an average of just 4.2 points in 10,000 simulations.  Derek Anderson, in relief, could not lead the Panthers to Paydirt against the Bronco defense.

 

Let’s take a look at the numbers.

SUPER BOWL 50

Date: Sunday, February 7, 2016

Time: 3:30 PM Pacific Standard Time (6:30 PM Eastern)

Location: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California

Santa Clara is about 40 miles Southeast of Downtown San Francisco in the greater San Jose area.

TV Network: CBS

Announce Team: Jim Nantz, Phil Simms, Tracy Wolfson, and Evan Washburn

Also Available: cbssports.com, live streaming for Verizon Wireless customers with Super Bowl app, Xbox One, Apple TV, Amazon Fire TV, Android TV, Chromecast, and Roku).

Canada: CTV

United Kingdom: BBC2  and on radio on BBC Radio 5 Live

Australia: Seven Network and Foxtel

Radio: Westwood One 

Announce Team: Kevin Harlan, Boomer Esiason, Dan Fouts, James Lofton, and Mark Malone.

 

Participants

AFC Champion–Denver Broncos

NFC Champion–Carolina Panthers

 

Las Vegas

Las Vegas Line: Carolina by 5 1/2

Totals: Over or Under 44 1/2

Money Line: Carolina -230, Denver +190

 

Weather Forecast: 69 degrees at kickoff with nominal winds and humidity–near perfect weather!

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Carolina by 7.0

Mean: Carolina by 7.7

Bias: Carolina by 9.0

Average: Carolina by 7.9

Average Score: Carolina 26 Denver 18

 

10,000 Computer Simulations 

Carolina wins 63.47%

Denver wins 36.53%

Average Score: Carolina 24.3  Denver 17.1

Standard Deviation: 9.42

Outlier A: Carolina 41  Denver 13

Outlier B: Denver 30  Carolina 7

 

Simulation 2–Manning out for second half

Carolina wins 65.93%

Denver wins 34.07%

Average Score: Carolina 25.0  Denver 15.9

 

Simulation 3–Newton injured late in Q2

Carolina wins 43.7%

Denver wins 56.3%

Average Score: Denver 20.6  Carolina 16.2

 

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