PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 16: December 23-25, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Total
Baltimore	Indianapolis	16.5	16.3	17.2	44
Green Bay	Minnesota	-6.3	-5.3	-7.6	39
Cincinnati	Detroit	-3.7	-3.3	-4.0	43
N. Y. Jets	LA Chargers	-6.6	-6.6	-6.8	41
Tennessee	LA Rams	-6.9	-6.0	-8.1	47
Chicago	Cleveland	7.9	7.3	11.0	34
Carolina	Tampa Bay	8.8	8.0	9.2	49
New Orleans	Atlanta	6.0	5.7	6.4	55
Washington	Denver	4.5	4.7	4.3	43
Kansas City	Miami	9.8	9.7	10.5	44
New England	Buffalo	14.2	13.9	14.2	42
San Francisco	Jacksonville	-7.3	-7.4	-7.5	45
Arizona	N. Y. Giants	5.6	5.1	5.8	41
Dallas	Seattle	4.1	3.5	4.8	45
Houston	Pittsburgh	-10.2	-10.1	-11.0	45
Philadelphia	Oakland	12.9	11.0	14.8	47

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	108.0	108.1	108.1	108.0	22	11-3
Buffalo	96.3	96.6	96.4	96.4	20	8-6
Miami	96.1	96.2	95.6	96.0	21	6-8
N. Y. Jets	94.3	94.0	94.4	94.3	18	5-9
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	105.9	106.1	106.1	106.0	22	8-6
Pittsburgh	105.6	105.7	105.8	105.7	23	11-3
Cincinnati	94.2	95.0	93.8	94.4	16	5-9
Cleveland	91.0	91.7	88.1	90.2	17	0-14
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Jacksonville	104.9	104.7	105.1	104.9	22	10-4
Tennessee	97.6	97.8	97.2	97.5	22	8-6
Houston	92.4	92.6	91.8	92.3	22	4-10
Indianapolis	91.9	92.3	91.3	91.8	22	3-11
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Chargers	104.5	104.1	104.7	104.4	23	7-7
Kansas City	102.8	102.9	103.2	103.0	23	8-6
Oakland	97.5	98.1	96.7	97.4	22	6-8
Denver	96.1	95.9	96.0	96.0	19	5-9
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Philadelphia	106.9	105.6	108.0	106.8	25	12-2
Dallas	102.9	102.4	102.9	102.8	24	8-6
Washington	97.5	97.7	97.3	97.5	24	6-8
N.Y. Giants	93.0	93.5	92.7	93.1	20	2-12
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	106.9	106.5	107.6	107.0	18	11-3
Detroit	100.5	100.8	100.3	100.6	27	8-6
Green Bay	98.7	99.2	98.0	98.6	21	7-7
Chicago	96.4	96.5	96.5	96.5	17	4-10
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	107.2	106.6	107.7	107.2	29	10-4
Atlanta	104.1	103.9	104.3	104.1	26	9-5
Carolina	103.5	102.7	104.0	103.4	27	10-4
Tampa Bay	97.2	97.2	97.4	97.3	22	4-10
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	107.5	106.8	108.3	107.5	25	10-4
Seattle	101.8	102.0	101.1	101.6	21	8-6
Arizona	95.7	95.6	95.5	95.6	21	6-8
San Francisco	94.5	94.3	94.6	94.5	23	4-10

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1	New England
2	Pittsburgh
3	Jacksonville
4	Kansas City
5	Baltimore
6	LA Chargers
NFC Seeding
1	Philadelphia
2	Minnesota
3	LA Rams
4	New Orleans
5	Carolina
6	Atlanta

Wildcard Round

Jacksonville over LA Chargers

Baltimore over Kansas City

LA Rams over Atlanta

New Orleans over Carolina

Divisional Round

New England over Baltimore

Pittsburgh over Jacksonville

New Orleans over Philadelphia

Minnesota over LA Rams

Conference Championship

Pittsburgh over New England

Minnesota over New Orleans

Super Bowl 52

Pittsburgh over Minnesota

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 14: December 7-11, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Total
Atlanta	New Orleans	-1.0	-0.5	-1.4	57
Buffalo	Indianapolis	6.3	6.5	6.7	42
Carolina	Minnesota	0.1	0.0	-0.2	43
Cincinnati	Chicago	7.5	7.9	7.3	35
Cleveland	Green Bay	-4.4	-4.3	-4.0	38
Houston	San Francisco	6.9	7.2	6.7	45
Kansas City	Oakland	5.6	5.5	6.3	46
Tampa Bay	Detroit	0.4	-0.3	0.8	49
N. Y. Giants	Dallas	-3.5	-2.8	-3.7	42
Arizona	Tennessee	-0.1	0.2	0.0	46
Denver	N. Y. Jets	0.0	0.4	-0.6	40
LA Chargers	Washington	9.7	9.2	10.2	50
Jacksonville	Seattle	0.9	1.0	1.3	41
LA Rams	Philadelphia	-1.1	-0.4	-1.7	47
Pittsburgh	Baltimore	2.4	2.1	2.4	43
Miami	New England	-11.9	-11.6	-12.7	43

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	109.6	109.5	109.9	109.6	22	10-2
Buffalo	96.1	96.5	96.1	96.2	20	6-6
N. Y. Jets	96.2	95.8	96.4	96.2	20	5-7
Miami	94.7	94.9	94.1	94.6	21	5-7
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	105.7	106.0	105.8	105.8	21	7-5
Pittsburgh	105.5	105.6	105.7	105.6	22	10-2
Cincinnati	98.8	99.4	98.6	99.0	17	5-7
Cleveland	91.0	91.7	90.9	91.2	17	0-12
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Jacksonville	102.1	102.1	102.1	102.1	21	8-4
Tennessee	98.1	98.0	97.8	98.0	23	8-4
Houston	96.6	96.7	96.3	96.5	22	4-8
Indianapolis	92.8	93.1	92.3	92.7	22	3-9
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Chargers	104.8	104.2	105.1	104.7	23	6-6
Kansas City	100.5	101.0	100.6	100.7	23	6-6
Oakland	98.0	98.5	97.3	97.9	23	6-6
Denver	93.2	93.2	92.9	93.1	20	3-9
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Philadelphia	109.2	107.9	110.5	109.2	24	10-2
Dallas	100.6	100.3	100.4	100.5	24	6-6
Washington	98.0	98.1	97.9	98.0	27	5-7
N.Y. Giants	94.6	95.0	94.2	94.6	18	2-10
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	105.8	105.3	106.6	105.9	17	10-2
Detroit	100.2	100.7	99.9	100.3	27	6-6
Green Bay	98.0	98.4	97.3	97.9	21	6-6
Chicago	93.8	94.1	93.8	93.9	18	3-9
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	107.7	107.0	108.2	107.6	30	9-3
Atlanta	103.6	103.5	103.8	103.6	27	7-5
Carolina	103.0	102.3	103.4	102.9	26	8-4
Tampa Bay	97.6	97.4	97.8	97.6	22	4-8
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	105.1	104.5	105.8	105.1	23	9-3
Seattle	104.7	104.6	104.3	104.5	20	8-4
Arizona	95.1	95.2	94.8	95.0	23	5-7
San Francisco	92.7	92.6	92.6	92.6	23	2-10

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1	New England
2	Pittsburgh
3	Jacksonville
4	LA Chargers
5	Tennessee
6	Baltimore
NFC Seeding
1	Minnesota
2	Philadelphia
3	Los Angeles
4	New Orleans
5	Seattle
6	Carolina

Wildcard Round

Baltimore over Jacksonville

LA Chargers over Tennessee

LA Rams over Carolina

New Orleans over Seattle

Divisional Round

New England over Baltimore

LA Chargers over Pittsburgh

Minnesota over New Orleans

Philadelphia over LA Rams

Conference Championship

New England over LA Chargers

Minnesota over Philadelphia

Super Bowl 52

New England over Minnesota

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 13: November 30-December 4, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Total
Dallas	Washington	2.8	3.0	2.4	51
Baltimore	Detroit	5.3	5.4	5.3	45
Chicago	San Francisco	6.2	6.4	6.5	43
Atlanta	Minnesota	2.5	2.7	2.1	47
Buffalo	New England	-8.9	-8.5	-9.0	45
Miami	Denver	-0.4	-0.2	-0.6	41
Tennessee	Houston	3.5	3.5	3.3	45
Jacksonville	Indianapolis	10.5	10.4	10.8	43
Green Bay	Tampa Bay	3.6	4.2	3.0	43
N. Y. Jets	Kansas City	-3.0	-3.9	-2.8	41
New Orleans	Carolina	7.0	7.2	6.8	56
LA Chargers	Cleveland	17.3	16.1	17.7	42
Arizona	LA Rams	-5.7	-4.9	-6.6	46
Oakland	N. Y. Giants	6.1	6.5	5.7	41
Seattle	Philadelphia	-5.1	-3.3	-6.8	46
Cincinnati	Pittsburgh	-4.8	-4.3	-5.1	39

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	108.7	108.7	108.9	108.7	23	9-2
Buffalo	96.8	97.1	96.9	96.9	22	6-5
N. Y. Jets	95.5	95.1	95.7	95.5	20	4-7
Miami	92.4	92.6	91.8	92.3	21	4-7
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Pittsburgh	105.8	105.9	106.0	105.9	22	9-2
Baltimore	104.1	104.6	104.0	104.2	19	6-5
Cincinnati	98.5	99.1	98.3	98.7	17	5-6
Cleveland	90.6	91.3	90.5	90.8	19	0-11
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Jacksonville	101.3	101.4	101.2	101.3	21	7-4
Tennessee	97.6	97.6	97.2	97.5	23	7-4
Houston	97.1	97.1	96.9	97.0	22	4-7
Indianapolis	93.8	94.0	93.4	93.7	22	3-8
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Chargers	104.9	104.3	105.2	104.8	23	5-6
Kansas City	101.5	102.0	101.6	101.7	21	6-5
Oakland	97.9	98.5	97.1	97.8	23	5-6
Denver	95.8	95.8	95.5	95.7	20	3-8
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Philadelphia	111.0	109.4	112.3	110.9	25	10-1
Washington	99.5	99.4	99.6	99.5	27	5-6
Dallas	99.4	99.3	99.0	99.3	24	5-6
N.Y. Giants	94.7	95.0	94.4	94.7	18	2-9
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	104.8	104.4	105.5	104.9	18	9-2
Detroit	101.8	102.1	101.7	101.9	26	6-5
Green Bay	98.1	98.5	97.5	98.0	21	5-6
Chicago	94.6	94.8	94.7	94.7	19	3-8
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	107.2	106.6	107.6	107.1	30	8-3
Atlanta	104.3	104.1	104.6	104.3	29	7-4
Carolina	103.2	102.4	103.7	103.1	26	8-3
Tampa Bay	97.5	97.3	97.6	97.5	22	4-7
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	104.4	103.8	105.1	104.4	23	8-3
Seattle	102.9	103.1	102.5	102.8	21	7-4
Arizona	95.8	95.9	95.5	95.7	23	5-6
San Francisco	91.9	91.9	91.7	91.8	24	1-10

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding		AFC
1	New England	1
2	Pittsburgh	2
3	Jacksonville	3
4	LA Chargers	4
5	Baltimore	5
6	Tennessee	6
NFC Seeding		NFC
1	Philadelphia	1
2	Minnesota	2
3	LA Rams	3
4	New Orleans	4
5	Carolina	5
6	Seattle	6

Wildcard Round

Jacksonville over Tennessee

LA Chargers over Baltimore

LA Rams over Seattle

Carolina over New Orleans

Divisional Round

New England over LA Chargers

Pittsburgh over Jacksonville

Philadelphia over Carolina

LA Rams over Minnesota

Conference Championship

Pittsburgh over New England

Philadelphia over LA Rams

Super Bowl 52

Philadelphia over Pittsburgh

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 12: November 23-27, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Total
Detroit	Minnesota	2.1	2.6	1.5	44
Dallas	LA Chargers	1.1	1.2	0.8	47
Washington	N. Y. Giants	6.9	6.7	7.3	45
Cincinnati	Cleveland	9.5	9.5	9.5	36
Philadelphia	Chicago	17.3	15.5	18.5	44
New England	Miami	19.5	19.3	20.2	44
Kansas City	Buffalo	12.1	12.1	12.0	45
Atlanta	Tampa Bay	9.5	9.4	9.6	51
N. Y. Jets	Carolina	-4.0	-3.9	-4.4	44
Indianapolis	Tennessee	-0.5	-0.4	-0.1	46
San Francisco	Seattle	-7.5	-8.0	-7.2	45
LA Rams	New Orleans	-1.1	-0.8	-1.3	53
Arizona	Jacksonville	-3.7	-3.5	-4.1	42
Oakland	Denver	4.8	5.3	4.4	45
Pittsburgh	Green Bay	11.8	11.4	12.5	41
Baltimore	Houston	10.4	10.8	10.5	41

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	108.8	108.8	109.0	108.8	23	8-2
N. Y. Jets	95.8	95.3	96.0	95.7	19	4-6
Buffalo	94.9	95.2	95.0	95.0	23	5-5
Miami	92.3	92.5	91.7	92.2	21	4-6
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Pittsburgh	106.3	106.4	106.5	106.4	21	8-2
Baltimore	104.3	104.8	104.2	104.4	19	5-5
Cincinnati	98.3	98.9	98.1	98.5	17	4-6
Cleveland	90.8	91.5	90.7	91.0	19	0-10
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Jacksonville	101.9	101.9	101.9	101.9	20	7-3
Tennessee	97.4	97.5	96.9	97.3	23	6-4
Houston	96.9	96.9	96.7	96.8	22	4-6
Indianapolis	94.0	94.1	93.7	93.9	23	3-7
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	103.9	104.4	104.0	104.1	22	6-4
LA Chargers	103.2	102.8	103.3	103.1	23	4-6
Oakland	97.9	98.5	97.1	97.8	23	4-6
Denver	96.1	96.1	95.8	96.0	22	3-7
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Philadelphia	109.7	108.1	111.0	109.6	25	9-1
Dallas	101.3	101.0	101.1	101.2	24	5-5
Washington	99.3	99.3	99.4	99.3	27	4-6
N.Y. Giants	94.9	95.1	94.6	94.9	18	2-8
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	103.5	103.2	104.1	103.6	18	8-2
Detroit	102.6	102.8	102.6	102.7	26	6-4
Green Bay	97.6	98.0	97.0	97.5	20	5-5
Chicago	95.4	95.6	95.5	95.5	19	3-7
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	107.9	107.1	108.5	107.8	30	8-2
Atlanta	104.1	103.9	104.4	104.1	29	6-4
Carolina	102.9	102.2	103.4	102.8	25	7-3
Tampa Bay	97.7	97.5	97.8	97.7	22	4-6
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	103.7	103.3	104.2	103.7	23	7-3
Seattle	102.7	103.0	102.2	102.6	21	6-4
Arizona	95.2	95.4	94.8	95.1	22	4-6
San Francisco	92.1	92.0	92.0	92.0	24	1-9

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1	New England
2	Pittsburgh
3	Jacksonville
4	LA Chargers
5	Kansas City
6	Baltimore
NFC Seeding
1	Philadelphia
2	New Orleans
3	LA Rams
4	Minnesota
5	Carolina
6	Seattle

Wildcard Round

Baltimore over Jacksonville

LA Chargers over Kansas City

LA Rams over Seattle

Carolina over Minnesota

Divisional Round

New England over Baltimore

Pittsburgh over LA Chargers

Philadelphia over Carolina

New Orleans over LA Rams

Conference Championship

Pittsburgh over New England

Philadelphia over New Orleans

Super Bowl 52

Philadelphia over Pittsburgh

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 11: November 16-20, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Total
Pittsburgh	Tennessee	9.5	9.9	9.8	42
Chicago	Detroit	-4.5	-4.6	-4.4	45
N.Y. Giants	Kansas City	-7.5	-7.6	-8.3	42
Miami	Tampa Bay	-2.0	-1.8	-2.4	43
Green Bay	Baltimore	-0.1	-0.4	-0.4	41
Minnesota	LA Rams	0.4	0.7	0.3	43
Houston	Arizona	3.9	4.1	3.6	44
Cleveland	Jacksonville	-7.7	-7.0	-7.9	38
New Orleans	Washington	12.7	11.9	13.5	57
LA Chargers	Buffalo	9.1	8.6	8.9	44
Denver	Cincinnati	1.6	0.6	1.6	39
Oakland	New England	-4.4	-4.2	-5.0	46
Dallas	Philadelphia	-0.9	-0.1	-2.2	49
Seattle	Atlanta	2.1	2.5	1.7	48

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	107.2	107.4	107.2	107.2	23	7-2
Buffalo	96.4	96.6	96.6	96.5	22	5-4
N. Y. Jets	95.5	95.0	95.7	95.4	19	4-6
Miami	93.0	93.1	92.5	92.9	21	4-5
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Pittsburgh	105.2	105.5	105.2	105.3	19	7-2
Baltimore	102.6	103.2	102.4	102.7	19	4-5
Cincinnati	97.9	98.7	97.6	98.1	17	3-6
Cleveland	91.0	91.7	90.9	91.2	20	0-9
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Jacksonville	101.7	101.7	101.7	101.7	21	6-3
Tennessee	98.7	98.6	98.4	98.6	23	6-3
Houston	96.5	96.7	96.1	96.4	22	3-6
Indianapolis	93.7	93.8	93.4	93.6	23	3-7
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	104.5	104.9	104.8	104.7	23	6-3
LA Chargers	102.0	101.7	102.0	101.9	22	3-6
Oakland	99.3	99.7	98.7	99.2	23	4-5
Denver	96.5	96.3	96.3	96.4	22	3-6
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Philadelphia	107.6	106.2	108.8	107.5	25	8-1
Dallas	103.7	103.2	103.6	103.5	24	5-4
Washington	98.8	98.9	98.8	98.8	27	4-5
N.Y. Giants	94.5	94.8	94.0	94.5	19	1-8
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Detroit	102.5	102.7	102.5	102.6	26	5-4
Minnesota	102.2	102.0	102.7	102.3	19	7-2
Green Bay	99.5	99.8	99.0	99.4	22	5-4
Chicago	95.5	95.7	95.6	95.6	19	3-6
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	108.6	107.7	109.3	108.5	30	7-2
Atlanta	103.9	103.8	104.1	103.9	28	5-4
Carolina	102.6	101.9	103.1	102.5	25	7-3
Tampa Bay	97.0	96.9	97.0	97.0	22	3-6
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	104.8	104.3	105.4	104.8	24	7-2
Seattle	103.1	103.3	102.7	103.0	20	6-3
Arizona	95.6	95.6	95.4	95.5	22	4-5
San Francisco	91.8	91.7	91.7	91.7	24	1-9

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1	Pittsburgh
2	New England
3	Kansas City
4	Jacksonville
5	Tennessee
6	Baltimore

NFC Seeding
1	Philadelphia
2	LA Rams
3	New Orleans
4	Minnesota
5	Carolina
6	Seattle

Wildcard Round

Kansas City over Baltimore

Jacksonville over Tennessee

New Orleans over Seattle

Carolina over Minnesota

Divisional Round

Pittsburgh over Jacksonville

New England over Kansas City

Philadelphia over Carolina

New Orleans over LA Rams

Conference Championship

New England over Pittsburgh

Philadelphia over New Orleans

Super Bowl 52

New England over Philadelphia

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 10: November 9-13, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Total
Arizona	Seattle	-4.3	-4.5	-4.1	42
Washington	Minnesota	1.7	1.6	1.6	44
Chicago	Green Bay	-0.7	-1.4	0.0	41
Indianapolis	Pittsburgh	-9.8	-9.7	-10.3	42
Jacksonville	LA Chargers	3.4	3.6	3.4	44
Tampa Bay	N. Y. Jets	4.4	4.9	3.8	43
Tennessee	Cincinnati	3.8	2.9	3.7	40
Buffalo	New Orleans	-2.2	-1.1	-2.7	52
Detroit	Cleveland	14.3	13.9	14.4	42
LA Rams	Houston	6.2	5.7	7.0	48
Atlanta	Dallas	-0.7	0.1	-0.9	54
San Francisco	N. Y. Giants	-2.5	-2.6	-2.5	41
Denver	New England	-4.1	-4.8	-3.9	43
Carolina	Miami	9.8	9.2	10.6	43

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	105.3	105.7	105.1	105.3	22	6-2
Buffalo	99.9	100.1	100.1	100.0	22	5-3
N. Y. Jets	95.5	95.0	95.9	95.5	20	4-5
Miami	94.4	94.4	94.0	94.3	20	4-4
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Pittsburgh	105.7	105.9	105.9	105.9	19	6-2
Baltimore	102.3	102.9	102.1	102.4	19	4-5
Cincinnati	97.9	98.7	97.6	98.1	17	3-5
Cleveland	91.0	91.7	90.9	91.2	18	0-8
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Jacksonville	101.8	101.8	101.8	101.8	22	5-3
Houston	99.2	99.3	98.9	99.1	24	3-5
Tennessee	98.7	98.6	98.4	98.6	23	5-3
Indianapolis	93.5	93.7	93.0	93.4	23	3-6
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	104.2	104.6	104.5	104.4	23	6-3
LA Chargers	101.9	101.6	101.9	101.8	22	3-5
Oakland	99.0	99.4	98.4	98.9	23	4-5
Denver	98.2	97.8	98.2	98.1	21	3-5
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Philadelphia	107.3	105.9	108.5	107.2	25	8-1
Dallas	105.9	105.2	106.0	105.7	26	5-3
Washington	99.7	99.6	99.9	99.7	26	4-4
N.Y. Giants	95.9	96.0	95.6	95.9	17	1-7
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Detroit	102.8	103.0	102.8	102.9	24	4-4
Minnesota	101.0	101.0	101.3	101.1	18	6-2
Green Bay	99.3	99.8	98.7	99.3	22	4-4
Chicago	96.0	96.0	96.2	96.1	19	3-5
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	105.1	104.2	105.8	105.0	30	6-2
Atlanta	102.2	102.3	102.2	102.2	28	4-4
Carolina	101.2	100.6	101.6	101.1	23	6-3
Tampa Bay	97.0	96.9	96.8	96.9	23	2-6
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Seattle	103.0	103.2	102.6	102.9	20	5-3
LA Rams	102.4	102.0	102.9	102.4	24	6-2
Arizona	95.7	95.7	95.5	95.6	22	4-4
San Francisco	90.4	90.5	90.1	90.3	24	0-9

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1	Pittsburgh
2	New England
3	Kansas City
4	Jacksonville
5	Buffalo
6	Tennessee
NFC Seeding
1	Philadelphia
2	LA Rams
3	New Orleans
4	Minnesota
5	Seattle
6	Dallas

Wildcard Round

Kansas City over Tennessee

Jacksonville over Buffalo

New Orleans over Dallas

Seattle over Minnesota

Divisional Round

Pittsburgh over Jacksonville

New England over Kansas City

Philadelphia over Seattle

LA Rams over New Orleans

Conference Championship

Pittsburgh over New England

Philadelphia over LA Rams

Super Bowl 52

Philadelphia over Pittsburgh

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Super Bowl LI: February 1, 2017

We present our Super Bowl LI preview a few days later than originally planned, but we decided that 100 computer simulations were not enough.  Over the last several days, we have visited the big bits and bytes to run numerous simulations on the big game.  We stopped at 10,000, the going rate among other simulators out there.

After running the first 100, we recorded the results to see how much different the results from 10,000 simulations.  What we found was that one metric definitely and consistently came through in both 100 and 10,000 sims that could be used by somebody unconcerned with losing a lot of their investment.  See below for the shocking revelation concerning this game and the Las Vegas Books.

Let’s get on with the data.

Super Bowl LI

Date: Sunday, February 5, 2017

Time: 6:30 PM EST

Place: Houston, TX

TV: Fox Sports

Radio: Westwood One

Find Your Affiliate Here

Online: Foxsports.com

AFC Champion: New England Patriots 16-2-0

NFC Champion: Atlanta Falcons 13-5-0

 

Las Vegas Info

Current Line (2/1/17 @ 10AM EST): New England by 3

Totals Line: 59

Money Line: New England -155, Atlanta +135

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate: New England by 2.4

Mean: New England by 0.6

Bias: New England by 3.2

Average: New England by 2

Total: 60

 

10,000 Simulations

The winner when we simulated 100 times was the same as the winner when we simulated 10,000 times.  The average margin minimally changed between 100 and 10,000 sims.

The standard deviation went down a little with 10,000 sims, but that was to be expected with so many more sims.

What surprised us was the definite deviation between the Total Points and the Vegas Total, and it is so wide that we felt compelled to highlight this even though we BEG you not to bet on this game using our data and cannot stress enough that we bet $0 on sporting events.

 

Wins: New England 53.9%  Atlanta 46.1%

Percentage going to overtime: 0.87%

Average Score: New England 24.3  Atlanta 23.2  ***47.5 points***

St Deviation: 7.3 (almost 2 deviations difference in Vegas Total)

Outlier A: New England 34  Atlanta 7

Outlier B: Atlanta 29  New England 10

Percentage of outcomes under 59 total points: 87.78%

If you haven’t caught on, the computer simulator says that about 7 out of every 8 times these two teams would face off in Houston, the total score would be less than 59 points.

This disagrees with our own PiRate Rating expected total of 60, but our totals have been totally pitiful this year.  I would trust this simulator over our own ratings.

 

So, we would make the UNDER 59 our best advice for this game, but once again we beg, urge, and plead with you not to wager money using the information we supply to you.  We are in this just for fun.

NFL Ratings And Spreads For NFL Conference Championships: January 22, 2017

SUNDAY, JANUARY 22, 2017

NFC Championship

Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers

Time: 3:05 PM EST

TV: Fox Sports Network

Radio: Westwood One  

Find Your Local Westwoon One Affiliate at: http://westwoodonesports.com/stations/

Line: Atlanta by 4 1/2 or 5 (changing rapidly)

Total: 61

PiRate Ratings Spreads

PiRate: Atlanta by 7.4

Mean: Atlanta by 8.2

Bias: Atlanta by 7.7

PiRate Total: 67

 

100 Simulations

Atlanta wins: 56

Green Bay wins: 44

Average Score: Atlanta 34  Green Bay 32

Outlier A: Atlanta 45  Green Bay 23

Outlier B: Green Bay 48  Atlanta 27

 

AFC Championship

New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Time: 6:40 PM EST

TV: CBS

Radio: Westwood One  

Find Your Local Westwood One Affiliate at: http://westwoodonesports.com/stations/

 

Line: New England by 5 1/2 or 6 (changing rapidly)

Total: 51

 

PiRate Ratings Spreads

PiRate: New England by 9.4

Mean: New England by 8.4

Bias: New England by 9.6

Total: 47

 

100 Simulations

New England wins 48

Pittsburgh wins 52

Average Score: New England 26  Pittsburgh 26

Outlier A: New England 41  Pittsburgh 20

Outlier B: Pittsburgh 24  New England 7

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Week 11: November 17-21, 2016

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
New England	109.5	108.1	110.5	109.4	67	42
Buffalo	103.4	103.5	103.9	103.6	64	40
Miami	97.9	98.2	98.0	98.0	60	38
N. Y. Jets	97.7	96.6	98.1	97.5	58	40
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Pittsburgh	102.3	102.3	102.9	102.5	62	41
Cincinnati	101.8	101.5	102.0	101.8	61	41
Baltimore	99.2	100.5	98.9	99.5	61	39
Cleveland	88.2	89.0	87.8	88.3	55	33
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Houston	98.1	99.0	97.9	98.3	61	37
Tennessee	97.8	99.1	97.5	98.1	61	37
Indianapolis	97.8	99.0	97.4	98.1	62	36
Jacksonville	92.9	94.5	92.2	93.2	58	35
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Denver	105.6	104.3	105.3	105.0	63	42
Kansas City	104.3	104.2	104.8	104.4	64	40
Oakland	100.3	100.7	100.7	100.6	66	35
San Diego	99.6	100.4	99.4	99.8	65	35
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Dallas	103.6	102.7	104.2	103.5	63	41
Philadelphia	103.5	101.9	103.3	102.9	63	40
Washington	100.6	100.3	100.7	100.5	62	39
N.Y. Giants	99.4	99.0	99.6	99.3	62	37
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Minnesota	102.6	101.9	102.4	102.3	59	43
Detroit	99.2	98.9	99.1	99.1	61	38
Green Bay	99.1	99.2	98.7	99.0	62	37
Chicago	93.6	92.4	93.2	93.1	56	37
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Atlanta	103.5	104.5	103.5	103.8	69	35
Carolina	103.1	103.0	103.1	103.1	62	41
New Orleans	100.2	101.3	100.3	100.6	67	34
Tampa Bay	97.0	97.5	96.7	97.1	61	36
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Seattle	107.7	105.2	108.4	107.1	63	44
Arizona	104.2	102.7	104.3	103.7	65	39
Los Angeles	98.8	99.5	98.7	99.0	57	42
San Francisco	89.6	90.8	88.9	89.8	54	36

This Week’s Games

November 17-21, 2016
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Totals
Carolina	New Orleans	5.9	4.7	5.8	55
Cincinnati	Buffalo	0.9	0.5	0.6	46
Cleveland	Pittsburgh	-9.6	-10.8	-12.6	45
Dallas	Baltimore	7.4	5.2	8.3	46
Detroit	Jacksonville	9.3	7.4	9.9	48
Indianapolis	Tennessee	3.0	2.9	2.9	52
Kansas City	Tampa Bay	10.3	9.7	10.9	51
Minnesota	Arizona	1.4	2.2	1.1	42
New York Giants	Chicago	8.8	9.6	9.4	46
Los Angeles	Miami	3.9	4.3	3.7	39
San Francisco	New England	-16.9	-14.3	-18.6	45
Seattle	Philadelphia	7.2	6.3	8.1	44
Washington	Green Bay	4.5	4.1	5.0	50
Oakland (m)	Houston	5.2	1.7	2.8	57
(m) Game played in Mexico City

If Playoffs Began Today

AFC
1	New England
2	Kansas City
3	Houston
4	Baltimore
5	Oakland
6	Denver
NFC
1	Dallas
2	Seattle
3	Atlanta
4	Detroit
5	N.Y. Giants
6	Washington

PiRate Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1	New England
2	Kansas City
3	Indianapolis
4	Baltimore
5	Oakland
6	Denver
NFC Seeding
1	Seattle
2	Dallas
3	Atlanta
4	Detroit
5	Washington
6	N.Y. Giants

Projected Playoff Results

Wildcard Round

Denver over Indianapolis

Oakland over Baltimore

N.Y. Giants over Atlanta

Washington over Detroit

Divisional Round

New England over Denver

Oakland over Kansas City

Seattle over N.Y. Giants

Dallas over Washington

Conference Championship

Oakland over New England

Dallas over Seattle

Super Bowl 51

Dallas over Oakland

 

PiRate Ratings Super Bowl Preview

We have done something we’ve never done before for Super Bowl 50.  Normally, when we run computer simulations, we run them 100 times.  It take about .1 second to run it 100 times.  Last night, after inputting the statistical data and weather forecast, we ran the simulation 10,000 times.  It took much longer, almost .3 second.  We then ran it again subbing Brock Osweiler for Peyton Manning, simulating a Manning injury or inability to perform as acceptable levels.  To be fair, we then ran it again with Cam Newton leaving the game in the second quarter due to injury, just to see how the game was affected.

What we found out is rather obvious:  Newton is much more valuable to the Panthers than Manning is to the Broncos.  With Manning leaving the game at halftime and Osweiler entering in the second half, Denver’s percentage of winning the game fell by just 2.7%.  With Newton leaving the game and unable to play in the second half, Carolina scored an average of just 4.2 points in 10,000 simulations.  Derek Anderson, in relief, could not lead the Panthers to Paydirt against the Bronco defense.

 

Let’s take a look at the numbers.

SUPER BOWL 50

Date: Sunday, February 7, 2016

Time: 3:30 PM Pacific Standard Time (6:30 PM Eastern)

Location: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California

Santa Clara is about 40 miles Southeast of Downtown San Francisco in the greater San Jose area.

TV Network: CBS

Announce Team: Jim Nantz, Phil Simms, Tracy Wolfson, and Evan Washburn

Also Available: cbssports.com, live streaming for Verizon Wireless customers with Super Bowl app, Xbox One, Apple TV, Amazon Fire TV, Android TV, Chromecast, and Roku).

Canada: CTV

United Kingdom: BBC2  and on radio on BBC Radio 5 Live

Australia: Seven Network and Foxtel

Radio: Westwood One 

Announce Team: Kevin Harlan, Boomer Esiason, Dan Fouts, James Lofton, and Mark Malone.

 

Participants

AFC Champion–Denver Broncos

NFC Champion–Carolina Panthers

 

Las Vegas

Las Vegas Line: Carolina by 5 1/2

Totals: Over or Under 44 1/2

Money Line: Carolina -230, Denver +190

 

Weather Forecast: 69 degrees at kickoff with nominal winds and humidity–near perfect weather!

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Carolina by 7.0

Mean: Carolina by 7.7

Bias: Carolina by 9.0

Average: Carolina by 7.9

Average Score: Carolina 26 Denver 18

 

10,000 Computer Simulations 

Carolina wins 63.47%

Denver wins 36.53%

Average Score: Carolina 24.3  Denver 17.1

Standard Deviation: 9.42

Outlier A: Carolina 41  Denver 13

Outlier B: Denver 30  Carolina 7

 

Simulation 2–Manning out for second half

Carolina wins 65.93%

Denver wins 34.07%

Average Score: Carolina 25.0  Denver 15.9

 

Simulation 3–Newton injured late in Q2

Carolina wins 43.7%

Denver wins 56.3%

Average Score: Denver 20.6  Carolina 16.2