The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 25, 2021

PiRate Ratings–NFL for Week 8: October 28-November 1, 2021

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
ArizonaGreen Bay7.48.78.0
AtlantaCarolina1.11.11.9
BuffaloMiami17.416.717.2
ChicagoSan Francisco-1.8-1.4-1.8
ClevelandPittsburgh2.93.72.4
DenverWashington7.77.57.9
DetroitPhiladelphia-2.1-2.0-3.2
HoustonLA Rams-16.2-18.1-16.3
IndianapolisTennessee4.33.63.6
LA ChargersNew England3.95.25.0
MinnesotaDallas0.8-0.10.5
N.Y. JetsCincinnati-5.1-5.2-4.3
New OrleansTampa Bay1.80.52.9
SeattleJacksonville16.014.215.8
Kansas CityN.Y. Giants13.914.014.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
ArizonaGreen Bay53
AtlantaCarolina51
BuffaloMiami45.5
ChicagoSan Francisco38.5
ClevelandPittsburgh43.5
DenverWashington37
DetroitPhiladelphia47
HoustonLA Rams51.5
IndianapolisTennessee51.5
LA ChargersNew England43
MinnesotaDallas53
N.Y. JetsCincinnati47
New OrleansTampa Bay50
SeattleJacksonville47.5
Kansas CityN.Y. Giants50.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo110.1109.9110.5110.1254-2
New England101.8101.1101.4101.4193-4
Miami95.295.595.795.520.51-6
N. Y. Jets88.088.588.488.3221-5

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore105.2104.8105.1105.0255-2
Cincinnati102.6103.4102.7102.9255-2
Cleveland101.6101.7100.8101.425.54-3
Pittsburgh101.6100.9101.3101.3183-3

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Indianapolis104.0103.5103.8103.8243-4
Tennessee103.0103.2103.5103.227.55-2
Jacksonville90.091.589.990.5231-5
Houston88.787.488.888.3241-6

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City102.3102.2102.0102.230.53-4
LA Chargers100.9101.2101.2101.1244-2
Las Vegas97.998.298.498.2275-2
Denver98.398.197.998.1173-4


N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas102.8103.9102.4103.030.55-1
Philadelphia95.895.796.596.0212-5
N.Y. Giants95.795.695.195.5202-5
Washington93.593.693.093.4202-5

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay103.8103.6104.0103.826.56-1
Minnesota100.6100.8100.0100.522.53-3
Chicago95.395.494.995.215.53-4
Detroit91.891.991.991.9260-7

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay110.2110.1109.8110.028.56-1
New Orleans107.8106.2108.2107.421.54-2
Atlanta96.396.297.496.628.53-3
Carolina95.194.995.195.122.53-4

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Arizona108.3109.3109.3109.026.57-0
LA Rams108.0108.5108.1108.227.56-1
Seattle103.2103.0102.9103.024.52-5
San Francisco100.4100.2100.0100.2232-4

This Week’s Playoff Projections

If Season Ended Today
AFC
1Cincinnati
2Las Vegas
3Tennessee
4Buffalo
5Baltimore
6LA Chargers
7Cleveland

NFC
1Arizona
2Tampa Bay
3Green Bay
4Dallas
5LA Rams
6New Orleans
7Minnesota
Playoff Projection Seeds
AFC Seeding
1LA Chargers
2Buffalo
3Baltimore
4Tennessee
5Cincinnati
6Las Vegas
7Cleveland

NFC Seeding
1Arizona
2Tampa Bay
3Green Bay
4Dallas
5LA Rams
6Minnesota
7New Orleans
Wildcard Round
Buffalo over Cleveland
Las Vegas over Baltimore
Cincinnati over Tennessee
Tampa Bay over New Orleans
Green Bay over Minnesota
LA Rams over Dallas

Divisional Round
LA Chargers over Las Vegas
Buffalo over Cincinnati
LA Rams over Arizona
Tampa Bay over Green Bay

Conference Championship
LA Chargers over Buffalo
LA Rams over Tampa Bay

Super Bowl 56 (LA)
LA Rams over LA Chargers

October 11, 2021

PiRate Ratings–NFL for Week 6, October 14-18, 2021

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
PhiladelphiaTampa Bay-9.6-9.5-8.1
Jacksonville (N)Miami-7.3-6.2-8.6
IndianapolisHouston13.013.512.2
ChicagoGreen Bay-3.8-3.0-4.0
WashingtonKansas City-5.8-5.4-5.8
CarolinaMinnesota0.1-0.21.5
BaltimoreLA Chargers5.64.55.0
DetroitCincinnati-1.2-1.8-0.7
N.Y. GiantsLA Rams-8.2-8.8-9.0
ClevelandArizona0.90.2-0.6
DenverLas Vegas6.56.56.4
New EnglandDallas0.1-1.9-0.2
PittsburghSeattle1.00.31.0
TennesseeBuffalo-7.1-6.9-7.8

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
PhiladelphiaTampa Bay49
Jacksonville (N)Miami44
IndianapolisHouston50
ChicagoGreen Bay43
WashingtonKansas City54
CarolinaMinnesota43.5
BaltimoreLA Chargers49.5
DetroitCincinnati50.5
N.Y. GiantsLA Rams48
ClevelandArizona53
DenverLas Vegas42
New EnglandDallas47.5
PittsburghSeattle44.5
TennesseeBuffalo52.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo110.6110.5111.3110.824.54-1
New England99.698.798.999.117.52-3
Miami96.496.897.396.8211-4
N. Y. Jets90.991.691.691.420.51-4

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore105.7105.1105.6105.5254-1
Cleveland103.7103.9103.0103.5263-2
Pittsburgh101.3100.6101.0101.0182-3
Cincinnati97.197.996.897.3243-2

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Indianapolis101.5100.8101.0101.124.51-4
Tennessee100.5100.5100.5100.5283-2
Houston91.089.891.390.725.51-4
Jacksonville89.190.688.789.5230-5

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City103.6103.5103.3103.532.52-3
LA Chargers102.6103.1103.1102.924.54-1
Denver99.899.799.699.716.53-2
Las Vegas96.296.396.296.225.53-2

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas102.5103.6102.1102.7304-1
Philadelphia96.095.996.996.320.52-3
N.Y. Giants95.795.695.095.420.51-4
Washington94.895.194.594.821.52-3

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay103.5103.1103.6103.4274-1
Minnesota100.3100.599.5100.121.52-3
Chicago97.297.697.297.3163-2
Detroit93.593.593.693.526.50-5

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay108.6108.4108.0108.328.54-1
New Orleans107.4105.6107.8106.922.53-2
Carolina97.497.397.997.6223-2
Atlanta95.895.696.896.1292-3

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
LA Rams106.9107.4107.0107.127.54-1
Arizona105.8106.7106.6106.4275-0
Seattle103.3103.3103.0103.226.52-3
San Francisco101.5101.4101.3101.4232-3

This Week’s Playoff Projections

If the Playoffs Began Today

AFC
1LA Chargers
2Baltimore
3Buffalo
4Tennessee
5Cincinnati
6Las Vegas
7Denver

NFC
1Arizona
2Dallas
3Tampa Bay
4Green Bay
5LA Rams
6Chicago
7Carolina

Projected Playoff Positions

AFC Seeding
1Buffalo
2LA Chargers
3Cleveland
4Tennessee
5Baltimore
6Cincinnati
7Denver

NFC Seeding
1Tampa Bay
2Arizona
3Green Bay
4Dallas
5LA Rams
6Chicago
7Carolina

Projected Playoff Rounds

Wildcard Round
LA Chargers over Denver
Cleveland over Cincinnsti
Baltimore over Tennessee
Arizona over Carolina
Green Bay over Chicago
LA Rams over Dallas

Divisional Round
Buffalo over Baltimore
LA Chargers over Cleveland
Tampa Bay over LA Rams
Arizona over Green Bay

Conference Championship
Buffalo over LA Chargers
Tampa Bay over Arizona

Super Bowl 56 (LA)
Tampa Bay over Buffalo

September 27, 2021

PiRate Ratings NFL For September 30-October 4, 2021

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:27 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
CincinnatiJacksonville9.79.010.0
AtlantaWashington4.03.76.0
ChicagoDetroit4.75.04.0
N.Y. JetsTennessee-5.4-4.9-4.6
MinnesotaCleveland1.01.31.5
MiamiIndianapolis2.64.24.8
DallasCarolina5.36.33.2
New OrleansN.Y. Giants16.814.618.2
PhiladelphiaKansas City-6.6-6.8-5.1
BuffaloHouston16.417.316.1
LA RamsArizona7.47.16.8
San FranciscoSeattle1.21.21.4
DenverBaltimore0.61.40.8
Green BayPittsburgh4.95.45.3
New EnglandTampa Bay-4.0-4.7-4.1
LA ChargersLas Vegas6.76.96.7

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
CincinnatiJacksonville46.5
AtlantaWashington48
ChicagoDetroit45.5
N.Y. JetsTennessee48.5
MinnesotaCleveland49.5
MiamiIndianapolis44.5
DallasCarolina49
New OrleansN.Y. Giants41.5
PhiladelphiaKansas City50.5
BuffaloHouston51.5
LA RamsArizona56
San FranciscoSeattle52
DenverBaltimore42.5
Green BayPittsburgh44
New EnglandTampa Bay46.5
LA ChargersLas Vegas50.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

September 28, 2021
A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L
Buffalo106.9106.7107.2106.9252-1
Miami99.6100.2100.8100.2201-2
New England99.598.698.899.018.51-2
N. Y. Jets90.991.591.691.420.50-3

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore104.3103.6104.2104.0252-1
Cleveland103.3103.5102.4103.125.52-1
Pittsburgh101.3100.6101.0101.0171-2
Cincinnati97.498.297.397.6242-1

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tennessee99.399.499.399.3282-1
Indianapolis100.099.099.099.324.50-3
Houston93.592.394.093.326.51-2
Jacksonville90.792.290.391.122.50-3

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City104.7104.6104.3104.5311-2
Denver101.9102.0102.0102.017.53-0
LA Chargers101.7102.0102.0101.923.52-1
Las Vegas97.998.298.398.1273-0

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L
Dallas101.2102.3100.2101.2282-1
Philadelphia95.695.496.695.919.51-2
N.Y. Giants95.395.394.595.019.50-3
Washington94.494.893.794.3201-2

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay103.3102.9103.3103.2272-1
Minnesota101.3101.8100.9101.3241-2
Chicago95.996.195.495.817.51-2
Detroit93.293.193.493.2280-3

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
New Orleans109.0106.9109.7108.5222-1
Tampa Bay106.5106.3105.9106.2282-1
Carolina98.498.599.598.8213-0
Atlanta96.095.997.296.4281-2

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
LA Rams107.6108.2107.7107.8283-0
Seattle103.9103.8103.6103.827.51-2
Arizona103.2104.1103.9103.7283-0
San Francisco102.1102.0102.0102.024.52-1

September 20, 2021

PiRate Ratings NFL For September 23-27, 2021

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
HoustonCarolina1.40.11.2
JacksonvilleArizona-9.0-8.0-9.8
TennesseeIndianapolis-0.60.4-0.1
DetroitBaltimore-9.5-9.1-9.8
BuffaloWashington13.112.513.7
New EnglandNew Orleans-3.6-1.8-4.9
Kansas CityLA Chargers9.28.98.8
N.Y. GiantsAtlanta3.74.01.7
ClevelandChicago7.16.96.3
PittsburghCincinnati11.510.011.7
Las VegasMiami1.51.31.1
DenverN.Y. Jets10.99.99.8
LA RamsTampa Bay2.33.22.9
MinnesotaSeattle-2.3-1.6-3.1
San FranciscoGreen Bay2.63.23.1
DallasPhiladelphia5.16.03.1

This Week’s PiRate Rating Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
HoustonCarolina49.5
JacksonvilleArizona50.5
TennesseeIndianapolis53.5
DetroitBaltimore55
BuffaloWashington42
New EnglandNew Orleans40.5
Kansas CityLA Chargers54.5
N.Y. GiantsAtlanta50.5
ClevelandChicago45
PittsburghCincinnati41.5
Las VegasMiami45.5
DenverN.Y. Jets39.5
LA RamsTampa Bay56
MinnesotaSeattle51.5
San FranciscoGreen Bay50.5
DallasPhiladelphia44.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo105.8105.6105.9105.723.51-1
New England100.9100.3100.3100.518.51-1
Miami99.299.7100.299.719.51-1
N. Y. Jets92.593.693.593.221.50-2

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore104.7104.1104.9104.6261-1
Pittsburgh103.7103.0103.6103.417.51-1
Cleveland102.1102.2101.0101.8261-1
Cincinnati95.296.094.995.4241-1

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Indianapolis101.1100.2100.4100.6250-2
Tennessee98.098.197.898.028.51-1
Houston95.694.496.395.527.51-1
Jacksonville90.992.690.691.422.50-2

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City106.2106.2106.0106.1311-1
Denver100.5100.4100.3100.4182-0
LA Chargers100.1100.3100.2100.223.51-1
Las Vegas97.798.198.398.0262-0


N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas99.6100.598.699.626.51-1
Philadelphia97.597.598.597.8181-1
N.Y. Giants96.196.295.395.921.50-2
Washington95.796.195.295.718.51-1

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay102.7102.1102.4102.426.51-1
Minnesota99.9100.499.299.8240-2
Chicago98.098.397.798.0191-1
Detroit92.792.592.692.6290-2

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
New Orleans107.5105.1108.1106.9221-1
Tampa Bay107.1106.9106.6106.9282-0
Carolina96.796.897.697.1222-0
Atlanta95.495.296.695.7290-2

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
LA Rams106.5107.1106.5106.7282-0
Seattle105.2105.1105.2105.227.51-1
Arizona102.9103.6103.5103.3282-0
San Francisco102.3102.4102.5102.4242-0

September 13, 2021

PiRate Ratings NFL Football Week 2: Sep 16-20, 2021

PiRate Ratings Week 2 NFL Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
WashingtonN.Y. Giants2.22.32.4
CarolinaNew Orleans-7.8-5.3-7.5
ClevelandHouston9.510.87.6
ChicagoCincinnati5.55.15.7
PittsburghLas Vegas9.58.48.8
MiamiBuffalo-3.6-2.8-2.7
IndianapolisLA Rams-2.3-3.9-3.1
PhiladelphiaSan Francisco-1.8-1.9-1.0
JacksonvilleDenver-6.5-4.8-6.7
N.Y. JetsNew England-5.9-4.2-4.2
ArizonaMinnesota6.26.57.8
Tampa BayAtlanta14.814.613.0
SeattleTennessee10.29.910.5
LA ChargersDallas3.42.84.6
BaltimoreKansas City1.00.41.5
Green BayDetroit11.911.311.4

PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
WashingtonN.Y. Giants38
CarolinaNew Orleans46
ClevelandHouston53.5
ChicagoCincinnati43
PittsburghLas Vegas43.5
MiamiBuffalo44
IndianapolisLA Rams53
PhiladelphiaSan Francisco44
JacksonvilleDenver40.5
N.Y. JetsNew England41
ArizonaMinnesota50
Tampa BayAtlanta54
SeattleTennessee56
LA ChargersDallas52
BaltimoreKansas City55
Green BayDetroit55.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Week 2
A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo105.8105.6105.9105.7240-1
New England100.9100.3100.3100.5190-1
Miami99.299.7100.299.7201-0
N. Y. Jets92.593.693.593.2220-1

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore104.7104.1104.9104.6250-1
Pittsburgh103.7103.0103.6103.417.51-0
Cleveland102.1102.2101.0101.8260-1
Cincinnati95.296.094.995.4241-0

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Indianapolis101.1100.2100.4100.6250-1
Tennessee98.098.197.898.028.50-1
Houston95.694.496.395.527.51-0
Jacksonville90.992.690.691.422.50-1

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City106.2106.2106.0106.1301-0
LA Chargers100.1100.3100.2100.224.51-0
Denver100.5100.4100.3100.4181-0
Las Vegas97.798.198.398.0261-0

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas99.6100.598.699.627.50-1
Philadelphia97.597.598.597.8191-0
N.Y. Giants96.196.295.395.920.50-1
Washington95.796.195.295.717.50-1

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay102.4101.7101.9102.026.50-1
Minnesota99.7100.198.799.5230-1
Chicago98.298.698.198.3190-1
Detroit93.092.993.193.0290-1

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
New Orleans107.5105.1108.1106.9231-0
Tampa Bay107.1106.9106.6106.926.51-0
Carolina96.796.897.697.1231-0
Atlanta95.495.296.695.727.50-1

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
LA Rams106.5107.1106.5106.7281-0
Seattle105.2105.1105.2105.227.51-0
Arizona102.9103.6103.5103.3271-0
San Francisco102.3102.4102.5102.4251-0

June 30, 2021

PiRate Ratings 2021 NFL Draft Grades

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:04 am

In recent years, we have heard from you that you would like to see our NFL Draft Grades with an explanation of why our grades are different from the mainstream. We started this service last year mostly to fill space at a time where it looked like there might not be a season. Looking back at the stats for the post, apparently it was about as popular as our March Madness Bracketology reveal, so definitely we are repeating the process this year.

First, to explain the uniqueness of our draft coverage. We do not look at the players drafted trying to predict what type of career they might have. If a team drafts a quarterback in the first round but has no plans to start this player for at least a few years, the selection might be worthy of an A+ selection by other services, and we would agree using their parameters.

However, our draft grades have a different purpose. We are an integrative computerized/human input rating service. The only reason we have to assign a grade to the draft is by calculating how it alters the teams’ ratings between week 17 and the playoffs the previous season and week 1 of the approaching season. That quarterback, for instance Jordan Love, might eventually be the best one in his draft class around 2023. However, when Love was drafted, it was almost a wasted pick as it failed to affect the Packers’ ratings any more than trading a tested backup for an untested backup. In other words, it was an ultra slight negative.

How does each drafted player appear to affect the team that drafted him in week 1 of the coming season? If he figures to see considerable playing time, that means something. If he figures to start, that means something more. If he figures to be an immediate impact player, that really means something. If he was the teams’ first round pick, whether or not he contributes in the coming year is no different than if he is the 7th round pick. Once, the season starts, teams get no bonus or punishment for playing the 7th round pick over the 1st round pick.

Next, say a team only drafted a couple of players due to trades, but the few they have all figure to contribute immediately. At the same time another team might have piled up picks and took 10 to 12 players, only half that may figure to contribute immediately. We don’t reward the few picks team over the several picks team. Having more picks brings a bonus, because the potential is there for many more players to potentially contribute. So, when Mike Ditka traded his entire draft to get the pick that brought New Orleans Ricky Williams, we figured that Williams would immediately start as the featured back, but the Saints’ overall grade that year was a D-. They had numerous holes to fill on that roster and failed to fill any of them. The bump forward from 3.5 yards per rush to 3.7 yards per rush did nothing to make a 6-10 team better, and when they went 3-13 with three different starting quarterbacks finishing with a QB rating under 60, Williams would have needed to average more yards per game than Jim Brown in his prime to make much of a difference.

It is not an exact science, but neither is a any computer power rating update. However, teams must be adjusted from the end of one season to the start of the next. There has to be some criteria used that approximates improvement or decline in the best method available to the update process. Anybody could have guessed that Tom Brady going from New England to Tampa Bay would totally alter the week 1 power rating of the two teams. As a matter of fact, quarterback is by far the most important factor in the update process. Blind-side tackle is the next most important, and the defensive rush ends are next most important. Each position down to long-snapper on special teams has its own handicapped factor that can influence the ratings update.

Now that you know our process, take a look at our grading scale. We don’t actually use a letter grade as you will see here today, as that means nothing to the rating. There is an internal number that becomes part of an algorithmic equation that adds value to a team’s power rating (occasionally deducts from a power rating if a team has a fire sale and starts a major rebuild.

Our grading scale starts at 0 and maxes out at 10, but only in theory. No team has ever come close to either extreme. Realistically, our draft scores range from a low of 3.0 to a high of 9.0 Anything above 8.0 means a team’s draft class should help them immediately in week 1. Of course, the draft is but one of many factors that go into this, and the overall great draft can be reversed by the loss of many regulars from the previous year.

A score of 6.0 is about par. Teams might become Super Bowl contenders with a par draft just because one key player contributed to the cause. A score under 4.0 means the team will see little to no immediate benefit from their draft.

Here are the scores from first to worst for the 2021 NFL Draft.

TeamDraft Rating
Chicago Bears8.38
Cleveland Browns8.13
Los Angeles Chargers8.13
New York Giants7.88
Miami Dolphins7.63
New York Jets7.63
New England Patriots7.25
Denver Broncos7.00
Atlanta Falcons6.88
Jacksonville Jaguars6.88
Detroit Lions6.75
Philadelphia Eagles6.50
Tennessee Titans6.50
Baltimore Ravens6.13
Minnesota Vikings6.13
Buffalo Bills6.00
Washington Football Team6.00
Kansas City Chiefs5.88
San Francisco 49ers5.88
Carolina Panthers5.75
Cincinnati Bengals5.50
Tampa Bay Bucaneers5.38
Dallas Cowboys5.00
Pittsburgh Steelers5.00
Los Angeles Rams4.88
Arizona Cardinals4.63
Indianapolis Colts4.63
Green Bay Packers4.25
New Orleans Saints3.63
Houston Texans3.38
Las Vegas Raiders3.13
Seattle Seahawks3.13

December 24, 2020

PiRate Picks for December 24-28, 2020

All NFL This Week

A minor profit last week led us to a conclusion. In December, our NFL picks have been somewhat more successful than our college picks. The Virus has added an intangible to game outcomes at the college level, while only mildly affecting NFL games. Additionally, once students left schools and finished their semesters virtually at home, the college football players were left isolated on little islands. Rather than desire to play meaningless bowl games for a little compensation of bowl bling, many desired to spend the Holidays at home with family and friends. Other than the Fiesta Bowl, where all players will receive PS5’s, maybe a better prize in their eyes than anything the FBS Playoffs can offer.

The NFL is a totally different story. Week 16 is usually the most crucial week of the regular season. The best teams usually need one more win to secure the playoff spot they will secure or make the playoffs. The eliminated teams begin to experiment with roster changes. The worst teams may sabotage their chances to win meaningless games at the end of the season, especially when there is a generational superstar ready to become the next John Elway.

Before you read this and say, “this will be an easy week!” realize something else. Those clever folks in Nevada with all the positive revenue streams know this bit of information and have adequately padded the spreads to reflect this information.

So, in the end, the spreads are about as accurate in Week 16 as they are in Week 6. And, for our purposes, understanding that the numbers themselves are more important than the names attached to those numbers, we are issuing selections based on trying to “steal” an extra couple of percentage points in our favor. That small gain basically removes the vigorish that the books have. It still boils down to a 50-50 wager, so it is still highly speculative.

Our Christmas gift to you is knowledge. That knowledge is in our case an expert knowledge. Our expertise is knowing that we don’t know enough for you to take these selections and wager real money on the picks. This is an experiment in mathematics to be read for enjoyment and maybe to understand that without real inside information, none of us non-sharps can consistently pick winning selections.

As an FYI, the State of Tennessee legalized sports betting on November 1 of this year. According to Legal Sports Report, in the first 30 days, the citizens of the Volunteer State volunteered a record $131.4 million to the state’s four authorized sports books. Four more sports books, including the giant William Hill, will commence operations in Tennessee in 2021. These companies vacuum up money quickly, as a large majority of their customers get poor slowly. The state is very conservative, and the overwhelming majority disapprove of any tax, yet they willingly agree to pay the state exorbitant taxes in the way of gambling. Try showing this to an average sports bettor, and he or she will laugh at you, telling you that they can win money unlike when they pay taxes. Yet, if you look at their accounts, very few show a profit. We found one person willing to “experiment” for one calendar year. He usually allots himself $2,000 to play during the football season, and in most years, that two grand is gone by Thanksgiving. At the end of 2019, we convinced him to open an account with a broker and deposit the $2,000 and not bet for the 2020-2021 football season. When the Virus outbreak apparently doomed all sports for the year in March, he was able to stick to his convictions, thinking there would be no games to bet that money and lose. Simply reading a few periodicals on value investing, he quickly discovered an equal love for “wagering” on corporations in a sport where the bettor investor has the advantage.

He didn’t lose all his money by Thanksgiving. In fact, by the time he sat down to enjoy his moist and juicy turkey, his investment had already returned close to 18%. As 2020 limps to the finish line, his original $2,000 investment is now pushing $2,400. He doesn’t plan on withdrawing the money or placing the next $2,000 in one of the sports books. If you learn anything from this site, let it be this: If you have a couple decades or more remaining in your pre-retirement lives, or even if you have reached retirement age and figure on sticking around for another score or so, a buy and hold strategy in high-quality value stocks with a long history of positive earnings and dividends is going to make you a lot wealthier than betting on State to beat Tech by 7 1/2 points.

Merry Christmas to all, and to all a good night. Here are our selections for the week.

1. NFL 6 1/2 Point Teaser+160
SelectionOpponentSpread
MiamiLas Vegas+6.5
BuffaloNew England-0.5
New OrleansMinnesota-0.5


2. NFL 7 Point Teaser-130
SelectionOpponentSpread
Tampa BayDetroit-2.5
ClevelandN.Y. Jets-2.5


3. 7 Point Teaser-130
SelectionOpponentSpread
HoustonCincinnati-0.5
ChicagoJacksonville-0.5


4. 10 Point Teaser-110
SelectionOpponentSpread
Kansas CityAtlanta-0.5
IndianapolisPittsburgh+8
BaltimoreN.Y. Giants-1


5. 10- Point Teaser-110
SelectionOpponentSpread
CarolinaWashington+12
LA RamsSeattle+11
DallasPhiladelphia+12.5

December 21, 2020

PiRate Ratings For NFL Week 16: December 25-28, 2020

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:29 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
New OrleansMinnesota7.87.98.1
DetroitTampa Bay-10.7-11.1-11.7
Las VegasMiami-0.9-1.8-1.8
N.Y. JetsCleveland-11.5-11.1-12.5
ArizonaSan Francisco4.85.25.1
LA ChargersDenver0.20.30.3
Kansas CityAtlanta9.610.810.3
PittsburghIndianapolis-2.3-2.1-2.2
WashingtonCarolina0.51.10.4
JacksonvilleChicago-9.9-9.8-10.2
BaltimoreN.Y. Giants15.514.715.1
HoustonCincinnati8.77.98.1
SeattleLA Rams2.02.21.9
DallasPhiladelphia-1.6-1.4-1.4
Green BayTennessee3.63.53.7
New EnglandBuffalo-6.0-7.2-7.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
New OrleansMinnesota51.5
DetroitTampa Bay59
Las VegasMiami55
N.Y. JetsCleveland43.5
ArizonaSan Francisco55
LA ChargersDenver42.5
Kansas CityAtlanta53.5
PittsburghIndianapolis43.5
WashingtonCarolina48
JacksonvilleChicago41
BaltimoreN.Y. Giants45.5
HoustonCincinnati45.5
SeattleLA Rams52.5
DallasPhiladelphia50
Green BayTennessee53.5
New EnglandBuffalo41

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

December 22, 2020
A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo106.6107.4107.4107.22211-3
Miami101.4102.4101.9101.925.59-5
New England99.799.298.999.3196-8
N. Y. Jets88.388.987.988.4181-13

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore107.9107.8108.0107.9259-5
Pittsburgh101.2101.4101.3101.318.511-3
Cleveland100.7101.0101.4101.125.510-4
Cincinnati90.891.291.191.019.53-10-1

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Indianapolis105.0105.0105.0105.02510-4
Tennessee103.6103.8104.1103.82910-4
Houston98.097.697.797.8264-10
Jacksonville89.889.589.589.621.51-13

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City109.9110.2110.1110.127.513-1
Las Vegas99.199.098.698.929.57-7
Denver97.197.097.197.1205-9
LA Chargers96.296.496.496.322.55-9

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Washington98.298.398.298.2216-8
Philadelphia97.897.797.397.623.54-9-1
Dallas94.794.894.494.626.55-9
N.Y. Giants93.994.694.494.320.55-9

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay105.7105.8106.3105.924.511-3
Chicago100.8100.3100.7100.619.57-7
Minnesota98.497.997.998.025.56-8
Detroit94.193.793.693.8285-9

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay105.8105.7106.2105.9319-5
New Orleans104.7104.3104.5104.52610-4
Atlanta102.3101.4101.8101.8264-10
Carolina98.798.298.798.6274-10

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Seattle103.5103.9103.8103.828.510-4
LA Rams103.6103.7103.9103.7249-5
Arizona103.0102.7102.8102.8298-6
San Francisco99.699.199.199.3265-9

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1Kansas City
2Buffalo
3Cleveland
4Indianapolis
5Pittsburgh
6Tennessee
7Baltimore

NFC Seeding
1New Orleans
2Seattle
3Green Bay
4Washington
5Tampa Bay
6LA Rams
7Chicago

Wildcard Round
Buffalo over Baltimore
Cleveland over Tennessee
Indianapolis over Pittsburgh
Seattle over Chicago
Green Bay over LA Rams
Tampa Bay over Washington

Divisional Round
Kansas City over Indianapolis
Cleveland over Buffalo
Tampa Bay over New Orleans
Green Bay over Seattle

Conference Championship
Kansas City over Cleveland
Green Bay over Tampa Bay

Super Bowl
Kansas City over Green Bay

November 25, 2020

PiRate Picks for November 26-30, 2020

Holiday Version Coming Out Early This Week

Hello PiRate Patrons. Due to the Thanksgiving holiday this week, we are publishing our selections against the imaginary book in Vegas a day earlier than normal. In the past three weeks, many of the selections we have issued have been cancelled due to Covid-19, and we increased the number of selections well into the teens so that at least 10 selections would actually stay active.

As this is printing a day earlier, and because college games are being postponed, cancelled, and scheduled at the last minute, we are going to issue a whopping 21 selections this week. Because all of our selections are for entertainment purposes only, and no real money is on the line, we can issue as many selections as we want. If we go 0-21, there will be no difference than if we go 12-9 or 21-0. That’s why we beg you not to wager real money on these selections. Our process is all about the numbers and has very little to do with the names attached. We believe the Vegas line knows the teams well enough, so we simply look for percentage advantages through certain numbers.

This week, we are going to include the Tuesday morning game between Charlotte and Western Kentucky. Yes, you heard that correct. The game was originally scheduled for Saturday, but virus issues mandated it be moved or cancelled. Charlotte has not played in forever, so they found it necessary to play this game on Tuesday morning. If it had been a Tuesday evening game, we would have considered it part of next week’s schedule, but Tuesday morning counts like Monday night in our book.

Additionally, you will see something we rarely do. We are going to play a 3-team, 7-point teaser which gives us +130 odds. We have only played this type of wager 3 or 4 times in 20 years.

One final note about today’s selections: we are going with a high odds Money Line parlay that pays out at more than +275. It is a long shot, but we liked the three teams, and our percentages indicate a better than one in three chance that it will win, and at +279.60, the implied percentage is just 26.3%, meaning we believe we have a 7% edge in taking this long shot.

Enjoy the monster numbers of selections. Just don’t wager on them.

Date:Nov. 26-30
College Games Straight Up -110
SelectionOpponentSpread
1. PittsburghClemson+24
2. San Jose St.Boise St.+12
3. Oklahoma CANCELLEDWest Va.-11

4. College 6-point Teaser -110
SelectionOpponentSpread
Central Mich.Eastern Mich.-1
BuffaloKent St.-1

5. College 6 1/2 -point Teaser -120 CANCELLED
SelectionOpponentSpread
StanfordCalifornia+8
USCColorado-6 1/2

6. College 6 1/2 -point Teaser -120
SelectionOpponentSpread
FloridaKentucky-16.5
MissouriVanderbilt-9

7. College 7-point Teaser -130
SelectionOpponentSpread
IowaNebraska-6 1/2
SMUEast Carolina-5 1/2

8. College 7-point Teaser +130
SelectionOpponentSpread
UTSANorth Texas+3 1/2
NorthwesternMichigan St.-6 1/2
Ole MissMiss. State-2 1/2

9. College 10-point Teaser -110
SelectionOpponentSpread
Notre DameN. Carolina+5
Oregon St.Oregon+23 1/2
Texas A&MLSU-4 1/2

10. College Money Line Parlay +139.10
Must WinOpponentSpread
Boston CollegeLouisville+139.10
IndianaMaryland

11. College Money Line Parlay +126.23
Must WinOpponentSpread
UTSAN. Texas+126.23
Central Mich.Eastern Mich.

12. College Money Line Parlay +103.24
Must WinOpponentSpread
Notre DameNorth Carolina
Oklahoma St.Texas Tech+103.24
AlabamaAuburn

13. College Money Line Parlay +279.67 CANCELLED
Must WinOpponentSpread
Air ForceColorado St.
BuffaloKent St.+279.67
CharlotteWestern Ky.

NFL Straight Wagers -110
SelectionOpponentSpread
14. PittsburghBaltimore-5
15. N.Y. GiantsCincinnati-5 1/2
16. BuffaloLA Chargers-5 1/2

17. NFL 6 1/2 -point Teaser -120
SelectionOpponentSpread
MiamiN.Y. Jets-1/2
LA RamsSan Francisco-1/2

18. NFL 7-point Teaser -130
SelectionOpponentSpread
HoustonDetroit+4
DallasWashington+4

19. NFL 7-point Teaser -130
SelectionOpponentSpread
IndianapolisTennessee+3 1/2
Kansas CityTampa Bay+3 1/2

20. NFL 10-point Teaser -110
SelectionOpponentSpread
MinnesotaCarolina+5 1/2
New EnglandArizona+12 1/2
Green BayChicagoPk

21. NFL 10-point Teaser -110
TeamTeamTotal
DetroitHoustonU 61 1/2
DallasWashingtonO 36
IndianapolisTennesseeO 41

November 23, 2020

PiRate Ratings–NFL For Week 12: November 26-30, 2020

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
DetroitHouston-3.2-2.9-3.5
DallasWashington2.72.82.8
PittsburghBaltimore2.43.23.1
AtlantaLas Vegas-0.1-1.4-0.7
BuffaloLA Chargers7.78.37.7
CincinnatiN.Y. Giants-3.1-3.5-3.5
DenverNew Orleans-7.9-7.7-8.0
Green BayChicago5.65.95.9
IndianapolisTennessee7.17.16.9
JacksonvilleCleveland-5.7-6.1-6.5
LA RamsSan Francisco3.64.64.7
MinnesotaCarolina2.83.12.8
N.Y. JetsMiami-10.2-10.4-11.1
New EnglandArizona0.0-0.2-0.4
Tampa BayKansas City-2.6-3.2-2.8
PhiladelphiaSeattle-3.3-3.7-4.1

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
DetroitHouston51.5
DallasWashington45.5
PittsburghBaltimore44
AtlantaLas Vegas54.5
BuffaloLA Chargers45
CincinnatiN.Y. Giants46.5
DenverNew Orleans44.5
Green BayChicago40
IndianapolisTennessee49
JacksonvilleCleveland44.5
LA RamsSan Francisco49
MinnesotaCarolina52
N.Y. JetsMiami47
New EnglandArizona50
Tampa BayKansas City58
PhiladelphiaSeattle53.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo102.2102.8102.2102.420.57-3
Miami100.3101.2100.6100.7276-4
New England99.599.198.999.220.54-6
N. Y. Jets88.188.887.588.1200-9

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Pittsburgh107.5108.1108.2107.91910-0
Baltimore107.1106.9107.1107.0256-4
Cleveland98.999.099.499.123.57-3
Cincinnati91.691.991.791.7232-7-1

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Indianapolis104.8104.8104.8104.8237-3
Tennessee100.2100.2100.4100.3267-3
Houston99.599.099.299.225.53-7
Jacksonville91.290.990.991.0211-9

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City109.9110.3110.3110.226.59-1
Las Vegas102.9103.3103.2103.1276-4
LA Chargers97.597.597.597.524.53-7
Denver96.996.796.796.8184-6

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Philadelphia96.996.896.396.623.53-6-1
N.Y. Giants96.196.996.796.623.53-7
Dallas94.494.594.194.3253-7
Washington93.793.793.393.620.53-7

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay104.3104.2104.6104.4247-3
Chicago100.399.8100.2100.1165-5
Minnesota99.399.299.599.325.54-6
Detroit94.394.193.894.0264-6

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
New Orleans106.8106.4106.7106.626.58-2
Tampa Bay105.3105.1105.5105.331.57-4
Atlanta100.399.4100.099.927.53-7
Carolina99.098.599.198.926.54-7

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
LA Rams103.9104.1104.6104.2247-3
Seattle102.7102.9102.8102.8307-3
Arizona102.5102.3102.3102.429.56-4
San Francisco102.2101.6101.9101.9254-6

Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding

1. Pittsburgh

2. Kansas City

3. Buffalo

4. Indianapolis

5. Cleveland

6. Las Vegas

7. Tennessee

NFC Seeding

1. Los Angeles

2. Green Bay

3. New Orleans

4. New York

5. Seattle

6. Tampa Bay

7. Arizona

Wildcard Round

Kansas City over Tennessee

Las Vegas over Buffalo

Cleveland over Indianapolis

Green Bay over Arizona

New Orleans over Tampa Bay

Seattle over New York

Division Playoff Round

Pittsburgh over Dallas

Kansas City over Cleveland

Los Angeles over Seattle

Green Bay over Los Angeles

Conference Championship Round

Kansas City over Pittsburgh

Los Angeles over Green Bay

Super Bowl

Kansas City over Los Angeles

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