We present our Super Bowl LI preview a few days later than originally planned, but we decided that 100 computer simulations were not enough. Over the last several days, we have visited the big bits and bytes to run numerous simulations on the big game. We stopped at 10,000, the going rate among other simulators out there.
After running the first 100, we recorded the results to see how much different the results from 10,000 simulations. What we found was that one metric definitely and consistently came through in both 100 and 10,000 sims that could be used by somebody unconcerned with losing a lot of their investment. See below for the shocking revelation concerning this game and the Las Vegas Books.
Let’s get on with the data.
Super Bowl LI
Date: Sunday, February 5, 2017
Time: 6:30 PM EST
Place: Houston, TX
TV: Fox Sports
Radio: Westwood One
AFC Champion: New England Patriots 16-2-0
NFC Champion: Atlanta Falcons 13-5-0
Las Vegas Info
Current Line (2/1/17 @ 10AM EST): New England by 3
Totals Line: 59
Money Line: New England -155, Atlanta +135
PiRate: New England by 2.4
Mean: New England by 0.6
Bias: New England by 3.2
Average: New England by 2
The winner when we simulated 100 times was the same as the winner when we simulated 10,000 times. The average margin minimally changed between 100 and 10,000 sims.
The standard deviation went down a little with 10,000 sims, but that was to be expected with so many more sims.
What surprised us was the definite deviation between the Total Points and the Vegas Total, and it is so wide that we felt compelled to highlight this even though we BEG you not to bet on this game using our data and cannot stress enough that we bet $0 on sporting events.
Wins: New England 53.9% Atlanta 46.1%
Percentage going to overtime: 0.87%
Average Score: New England 24.3 Atlanta 23.2 ***47.5 points***
St Deviation: 7.3 (almost 2 deviations difference in Vegas Total)
Outlier A: New England 34 Atlanta 7
Outlier B: Atlanta 29 New England 10
Percentage of outcomes under 59 total points: 87.78%
If you haven’t caught on, the computer simulator says that about 7 out of every 8 times these two teams would face off in Houston, the total score would be less than 59 points.
This disagrees with our own PiRate Rating expected total of 60, but our totals have been totally pitiful this year. I would trust this simulator over our own ratings.
So, we would make the UNDER 59 our best advice for this game, but once again we beg, urge, and plead with you not to wager money using the information we supply to you. We are in this just for fun.