The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 20, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 12: November 23-27, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Detroit Minnesota 2.1 2.6 1.5 44
Dallas LA Chargers 1.1 1.2 0.8 47
Washington N. Y. Giants 6.9 6.7 7.3 45
Cincinnati Cleveland 9.5 9.5 9.5 36
Philadelphia Chicago 17.3 15.5 18.5 44
New England Miami 19.5 19.3 20.2 44
Kansas City Buffalo 12.1 12.1 12.0 45
Atlanta Tampa Bay 9.5 9.4 9.6 51
N. Y. Jets Carolina -4.0 -3.9 -4.4 44
Indianapolis Tennessee -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 46
San Francisco Seattle -7.5 -8.0 -7.2 45
LA Rams New Orleans -1.1 -0.8 -1.3 53
Arizona Jacksonville -3.7 -3.5 -4.1 42
Oakland Denver 4.8 5.3 4.4 45
Pittsburgh Green Bay 11.8 11.4 12.5 41
Baltimore Houston 10.4 10.8 10.5 41

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 108.8 108.8 109.0 108.8 23 8-2
N. Y. Jets 95.8 95.3 96.0 95.7 19 4-6
Buffalo 94.9 95.2 95.0 95.0 23 5-5
Miami 92.3 92.5 91.7 92.2 21 4-6
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 106.3 106.4 106.5 106.4 21 8-2
Baltimore 104.3 104.8 104.2 104.4 19 5-5
Cincinnati 98.3 98.9 98.1 98.5 17 4-6
Cleveland 90.8 91.5 90.7 91.0 19 0-10
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 101.9 101.9 101.9 101.9 20 7-3
Tennessee 97.4 97.5 96.9 97.3 23 6-4
Houston 96.9 96.9 96.7 96.8 22 4-6
Indianapolis 94.0 94.1 93.7 93.9 23 3-7
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 103.9 104.4 104.0 104.1 22 6-4
LA Chargers 103.2 102.8 103.3 103.1 23 4-6
Oakland 97.9 98.5 97.1 97.8 23 4-6
Denver 96.1 96.1 95.8 96.0 22 3-7
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 109.7 108.1 111.0 109.6 25 9-1
Dallas 101.3 101.0 101.1 101.2 24 5-5
Washington 99.3 99.3 99.4 99.3 27 4-6
N.Y. Giants 94.9 95.1 94.6 94.9 18 2-8
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Minnesota 103.5 103.2 104.1 103.6 18 8-2
Detroit 102.6 102.8 102.6 102.7 26 6-4
Green Bay 97.6 98.0 97.0 97.5 20 5-5
Chicago 95.4 95.6 95.5 95.5 19 3-7
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 107.9 107.1 108.5 107.8 30 8-2
Atlanta 104.1 103.9 104.4 104.1 29 6-4
Carolina 102.9 102.2 103.4 102.8 25 7-3
Tampa Bay 97.7 97.5 97.8 97.7 22 4-6
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 103.7 103.3 104.2 103.7 23 7-3
Seattle 102.7 103.0 102.2 102.6 21 6-4
Arizona 95.2 95.4 94.8 95.1 22 4-6
San Francisco 92.1 92.0 92.0 92.0 24 1-9

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 New England
2 Pittsburgh
3 Jacksonville
4 LA Chargers
5 Kansas City
6 Baltimore
NFC Seeding
1 Philadelphia
2 New Orleans
3 LA Rams
4 Minnesota
5 Carolina
6 Seattle
Wildcard Round
Baltimore over Jacksonville
LA Chargers over Kansas City
LA Rams over Seattle
Carolina over Minnesota
Divisional Round
New England over Baltimore
Pittsburgh over LA Chargers
Philadelphia over Carolina
New Orleans over LA Rams
Conference Championship
Pittsburgh over New England
Philadelphia over New Orleans
Super Bowl 52
Philadelphia over Pittsburgh








October 24, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 8: October 25-29, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Baltimore Miami 5.5 6.1 5.7 39
Cleveland (London) Minnesota -9.2 -9.0 -9.2 35
New Orleans Chicago 11.6 10.9 12.2 50
N. Y. Jets Atlanta -6.4 -6.9 -6.1 47
Tampa Bay Carolina 2.7 2.6 2.5 50
Philadelphia San Francisco 16.9 15.9 17.9 49
Buffalo Oakland 3.3 3.0 4.2 45
Cincinnati Indianapolis 11.4 11.4 12.0 39
New England LA Chargers 6.7 7.5 6.5 45
Seattle Houston 6.3 5.9 6.5 44
Washington Dallas -1.1 -0.8 -0.9 53
Detroit Philadelphia -0.4 1.4 -1.5 49
Kansas City Denver 7.7 8.3 7.8 40

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 105.1 105.6 104.9 105.2 22 5-2-0
Buffalo 100.5 100.6 100.9 100.7 22 4-2-0
Miami 97.1 97.0 96.7 96.9 20 4-2-0
N. Y. Jets 93.6 93.2 93.8 93.6 19 3-4-0
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 105.3 105.4 105.4 105.4 20 5-2-0
Baltimore 100.1 100.6 100.0 100.2 19 3-4-0
Cincinnati 99.7 100.2 99.7 99.9 16 2-4-0
Cleveland 91.2 91.7 91.3 91.4 18 0-7-0
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Houston 101.3 101.5 101.0 101.3 25 3-3-0
Jacksonville 100.4 100.6 100.2 100.4 22 4-3-0
Tennessee 98.2 98.2 97.8 98.1 23 4-3-0
Indianapolis 90.9 91.3 90.2 90.8 23 2-5-0
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 104.8 105.2 105.1 105.0 22 5-2-0
LA Chargers 101.9 101.5 101.9 101.8 23 3-4-0
Oakland 100.7 101.2 100.1 100.7 23 3-4-0
Denver 100.2 99.8 100.3 100.1 18 3-3-0
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 105.0 103.8 106.0 104.9 24 6-1-0
Dallas 104.0 103.4 103.9 103.8 26 3-3-0
Washington 99.8 99.7 100.0 99.8 27 3-3-0
N.Y. Giants 99.2 99.3 98.9 99.2 15 1-6-0
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Detroit 101.6 102.1 101.5 101.8 25 3-3-0
Minnesota 100.4 100.6 100.5 100.5 17 5-2-0
Green Bay 100.5 100.8 100.1 100.5 22 4-3-0
Chicago 95.6 95.7 95.7 95.7 19 3-4-0
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 104.3 103.5 105.0 104.3 31 4-2-0
Atlanta 102.5 102.6 102.5 102.5 28 3-3-0
Carolina 99.9 99.5 100.1 99.8 25 4-3-0
Tampa Bay 99.6 99.1 99.7 99.5 25 2-4-0
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Seattle 104.6 104.5 104.4 104.5 19 4-2-0
LA Rams 98.7 98.3 99.2 98.7 22 5-2-0
Arizona 94.7 94.8 94.4 94.6 23 3-4-0
San Francisco 91.6 91.4 91.6 91.5 25 0-7-0

This Week’s NFL Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Pittsburgh  
2 New England  
3 Kansas City  
4 Houston  
5 Buffalo  
6 Miami  
NFC Seeding
1 Philadelphia  
2 LA Rams  
3 New Orleans  
4 Minnesota  
5 Seattle  
6 Carolina  
Wildcard Round
Miami over Kansas City
Houston over Buffalo
New Orleans over Carolina
Minnesota over Seattle
Divisional Round
Pittsburgh over Miami
New England over Houston
Philadelphia over Minnesota
LA Rams over New Orleans
Conference Championship
Pittsburgh over New England
Philadelphia over LA Rams
Super Bowl 52
Philadelphia over Pittsburgh

The big news in the NFL continues to hover around the fans boycotting the games, be it in person or on TV.  The protests are just one of multiple reasons for this, but the result is that the NFL has taken a huge financial hit, and the networks have been forced to award free advertising to sponsors in which they could not deliver to them certain minimum ratings.

We at the PiRate Ratings have never published a guest’s email, but because said guest gave us his permission, and because this particular guest is a verified football fanatic, this email, if ever read by NFL officials, should have them quaking in their boots.

We have slightly edited the email, only to remove proper names that could identify certain people.

The email follows in blue:

Hello PiRate Captain and Lasses.
Some of you know me. I went to high school and college with [PiRate Lass Name Deleted]. I have owned a personal seat license and season tickets to [Team deleted] since they have existed in their current city of residence. Until this season, I missed only two home games between 1998 and 2016, and I have seen them on the road eight times.
I took my vacation days at work to go on road trips, and to go to the NFL Draft multiple times. I paid over Two Grand to get a couple of Super Bowl Tickets to see [Teams deleted]. I foolishly purchased every new jersey every time the [Team deleted] .

As [PiRate Lass Name Deleted] probably knows, I have always opposed both the Democrats and Republicans. I worked for the Perot campaign in 1992, and I supported Pat Buchanan and Ralph Nader at different times. I saw my managerial position with [Company Deleted] leave when the company moved overseas to [Country Deleted] to receive cheap foreign labor.

I did not support President Trump when he ran in the primaries, namely because I am not registered to vote in my state’s primary, as I am independent. I thought he was a joke running for a publicity stunt so that he could return to TV with a bigger audience.
However, once he was elected, and I began witnessing the incredibly negative bias, it became obvious that the elite in our media were looking out only for their own financial gain and their retaining of power as the fifth estate.

When the NFL protesting of the flag and national anthem began, I didn’t really think much of it. But then, when I began reading blogs of people I respect and hearing my local radio host talking about the incorrect information being put out, followed by evidence that totally contradicted what the elite mainstream media put out, I did the following things.

1. I cut the cord in my house. We dropped our cable television service and turned in the equipment to [Company deleted].

2. Rather than sell or give away the tickets to the remaining [Team deleted] games, I tore them up and threw them in the garbage. I additionally informed the [Team Deleted] that I would not renew my tickets next year and forfeit my PSL. They did nothing, because until I fail to renew my tickets, the PSL stays in place. I can say with 100% certainty that I will not renew next year.

3. I donated all my [Team Deleted] apparel to the Goodwill drop-off near where I live.

4. I planned with my wife alternate activities for Sundays.

5. We ultimately stopped watching all regular network TV, and with our regular antenna, we now only watch ME TV, Antenna TV, Cozi, Comet, Buzzr, and Get TV. Most of what we watch is in black and white and was produced before 1965.

Even if the NFL bends over backward to make things right again, they have lost me as a patron. I never realized how much better a Sunday can be when I didn’t sit on a couch from 11 AM until 11 PM watching NFL Pre-game shows and three games. First of all, the games had become quite boring. There is no imagination. The [Team Deleted] seems to have 4 basic plays–run the ball between the tackles on a dive, throw short, throw medium-short, and throw medium.
It’s not like the 1960’s AFL when you had the most fun football ever. It isn’t even like the 1990’s when you had some gunslingers, some finesse running, and multiple different types of offenses and defenses.
What have I been doing this year on Sundays rather than sit on a couch with my lunch spread and casual supper? On most weeks, I have discovered the joy of hiking on trails in wooded areas, either with my wife or with my wife and a group of new friends I found through the Meetup Group we discovered online. We even joined a local hiking club that goes on out of town hikes and has monthly meetings at one of our local parks.
On one weekend, we visited the botanical garden we had never been to, even though it is just 2 miles from our home. We loved it so much, we purchased a membership. We have also been to the zoo twice, and like the garden, we just purchased a membership there as well.

On four Sunday nights, we have joined friends for group dinners, and we talked about almost anything but football. We came to a group conclusion that sums up our new paradigm shift: It is much more entertaining and enriching to be a participant in something than to be part of the audience while others do something.

Last weekend, I didn’t even watch college football. The weather was just perfect to take a canoe trip on the river, and we joined friends canoeing 14 miles down the [River Deleted]. It took all day, and we stopped a few times, enjoying a picnic lunch at one of the pullout spots. We arrived at the end point just as the sun was setting behind the hills, and then we stopped at a family-owned restaurant off the beaten path for some of the finest comfort food I have ever eaten that wasn’t prepared by my wife, mother, or mother-in-law.

I don’t know how many others have done the same as me, but according to [Radio Host Name Deleted], the NFL Stadiums look almost half-empty these days. The TV ratings are so down that the networks are having to award free ads to some of the sponsors.
I think the actual number one change that has come this year is that most of the educated nation now realizes that our elitist media is a complete joke not to be trusted as a legitimate news source. Once you break free from their propaganda, you realize so many truths that you didn’t know before.

I am sure that my life has been enhanced. I want to thank those football players for protesting and driving me away from watching them play at the expense of my having real recreational fun. I have lost 12 pounds since Labor Day, and I feel really healthy for the first time in 20 years. Best of all, my Mondays are no longer the terrible return to the working world like they once were. I am alive, fresh, peppy, and ready to do my work on Mondays, because I have had my fill of exercise and fresh air for 48 hours. I have new friends, and I have a happier outlook.
I hope this has not bored you. I also hope that you and all the PiRates will consider joining me in my newfound experiences and get out and enjoy nature. A couple of deep breaths atop a mountain overlooking a lake and valley is worth more than 50-yard line seats at every Super Bowl ever played or to be played.

Thank You
[Name Deleted & City Deleted]




October 17, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 7: October 18-22, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Oakland Kansas City -1.6 -1.2 -2.4 42
Cleveland Tennessee -4.3 -3.9 -3.8 44
Indianapolis Jacksonville -2.2 -2.0 -2.7 49
Pittsburgh Cincinnati 7.2 7.0 7.0 36
Minnesota Baltimore 2.7 2.5 2.6 36
Miami N. Y. Jets 6.7 7.0 6.1 36
Buffalo Tampa Bay 3.9 4.5 4.4 45
Chicago Carolina -3.3 -2.6 -3.9 47
Green Bay New Orleans 2.3 3.6 1.7 56
LA Rams (London) Arizona -1.7 -2.1 -1.2 47
San Franciso Dallas -6.5 -6.4 -6.2 51
N. Y. Giants Seattle 1.9 1.6 2.1 34
LA Chargers Denver -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 43
New England Atlanta 3.9 4.6 3.6 53
Philadelphia Washington 6.7 5.9 7.4 49

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 104.3 104.9 104.0 104.4 23 4-2-0
Buffalo 100.5 100.6 101.0 100.7 21 3-2-0
Miami 97.3 97.2 96.9 97.1 18 3-2-0
N. Y. Jets 93.6 93.2 93.8 93.6 18 3-3-0
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 104.8 105.0 104.8 104.9 20 4-2-0
Baltimore 100.4 100.8 100.4 100.5 19 3-3-0
Cincinnati 100.1 100.5 100.2 100.3 16 2-3-0
Cleveland 91.1 91.6 91.2 91.3 19 0-6-0
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Houston 100.9 101.1 100.6 100.9 25 3-3-0
Jacksonville 98.4 98.6 98.2 98.4 24 3-3-0
Tennessee 98.4 98.4 98.0 98.3 25 3-3-0
Indianapolis 93.2 93.6 92.5 93.1 25 2-4-0
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 105.0 105.3 105.3 105.2 21 5-1-0
Denver 102.0 101.6 102.1 101.9 19 3-2-0
Oakland 100.5 101.1 99.9 100.5 21 2-4-0
LA Chargers 99.6 99.2 99.6 99.5 24 2-4-0
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 104.8 103.7 105.7 104.7 23 5-1-0
Dallas 102.3 101.8 102.1 102.1 26 2-3-0
N.Y. Giants 101.2 101.1 101.1 101.2 15 1-5-0
Washington 100.0 99.8 100.3 100.0 26 3-2-0
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Green Bay 102.3 102.7 102.1 102.4 25 4-2-0
Detroit 101.2 101.7 101.1 101.4 25 3-3-0
Minnesota 100.0 100.3 100.0 100.1 17 4-2-0
Chicago 94.7 95.0 94.6 94.8 21 2-4-0
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Atlanta 103.3 103.3 103.4 103.3 30 3-2-0
New Orleans 103.0 102.1 103.5 102.9 31 3-2-0
Carolina 101.1 100.5 101.5 101.0 26 4-2-0
Tampa Bay 99.6 99.1 99.6 99.4 24 2-3-0
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Seattle 102.9 103.0 102.5 102.8 19 3-2-0
Arizona 97.5 97.5 97.3 97.4 25 3-3-0
LA Rams 95.7 95.4 96.1 95.7 22 4-2-0
San Francisco 93.3 93.0 93.4 93.2 25 0-6-0

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Kansas City
2 New England
3 Pittsburgh
4 Houston
5 Denver
6 Miami
NFC Seeding
1 Philadelphia
2 Carolina
3 Los Angeles
4 Minnesota
5 Atlanta
6 Washington
Wildcard Round
Pittsburgh over Miami
Houston over Denver
Los Angeles over Washington
Atlanta over Minnesota
Divisional Round
Kansas City over Houston
Pittsburgh over New England
Philadelphia over Atlanta
Los Angeles over Carolina
Conference Championship
Kansas City over Pittsburgh
Philadelphia over Los Angeles
Super Bowl 52
Philadelphia over Kansas City



October 3, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 4: October 4-8, 2017

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:48 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Tampa Bay New England -1.1 -2.5 -0.3 47
N. Y. Giants LA Chargers 3.6 4.1 3.3 40
Cincinnati Buffalo 2.5 2.7 1.9 37
Cleveland N. Y. Jets 1.7 2.4 1.8 40
Pittsburgh Jacksonville 11.6 11.5 11.7 45
Miami Tennessee 1.1 1.0 1.1 44
Indianapolis San Francisco 4.4 5.0 3.9 51
Philadelphia Arizona 6.5 5.1 7.7 46
Detroit Carolina 5.0 6.3 4.9 50
LA Rams Seattle -7.2 -7.5 -6.7 42
Oakland Baltimore 6.8 7.0 6.4 41
Dallas Green Bay 1.8 0.7 2.0 51
Houston Kansas City -1.7 -1.3 -2.5 42
Chicago Minnesota -3.9 -3.8 -4.4 37

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
New England 104.5 105.2 104.1 104.6 24
Buffalo 100.4 100.5 101.0 100.6 21
Miami 96.3 96.3 95.7 96.1 19
N. Y. Jets 93.2 92.8 93.3 93.1 19
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Pittsburgh 106.2 106.4 106.2 106.3 21
Cincinnati 99.8 100.2 99.8 100.0 16
Baltimore 99.7 100.0 99.7 99.8 18
Cleveland 91.9 92.3 92.2 92.1 21
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Houston 101.1 101.4 100.7 101.1 21
Tennessee 98.2 98.3 97.7 98.1 25
Jacksonville 97.7 97.9 97.5 97.7 24
Indianapolis 93.7 94.0 93.1 93.6 26
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Kansas City 105.7 105.8 106.2 105.9 21
Denver 103.8 103.1 104.2 103.7 19
Oakland 103.5 104.0 103.1 103.5 23
LA Chargers 99.2 98.8 99.1 99.0 25
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Dallas 102.4 101.8 102.3 102.2 25
Philadelphia 101.9 100.8 102.7 101.8 23
Washington 100.3 100.0 100.7 100.3 26
N.Y. Giants 99.2 99.4 98.9 99.2 15
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Green Bay 103.6 104.1 103.3 103.7 26
Detroit 102.9 103.5 103.1 103.2 24
Minnesota 99.7 100.0 99.8 99.8 17
Chicago 93.3 93.8 92.9 93.3 20
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Atlanta 104.2 104.1 104.5 104.3 31
New Orleans 101.6 100.6 101.9 101.4 30
Carolina 100.9 100.2 101.2 100.8 26
Tampa Bay 100.4 99.6 100.8 100.3 23
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Seattle 102.7 102.8 102.3 102.6 20
Arizona 98.9 99.2 98.5 98.9 23
LA Rams 93.4 93.3 93.6 93.4 22
San Francisco 92.7 92.5 92.7 92.6 25

PiRate Ratings Projected Playoffs


  1. Kansas City
  2. Pittsburgh
  3. New England
  4. Houston
  5. Denver
  6. Buffalo


  1. Atlanta
  2. Philadelphia
  3. Green Bay
  4. Seattle
  5. Carolina
  6. Los Angeles

Wildcard Round

New England over Buffalo

Houston over Denver

Green Bay over Los Angeles

Carolina over Seattle


Divisional Round

Kansas City over Houston

Pittsburgh over New England

Carolina over Atlanta

Philadelphia over Green Bay


Conference Championships

Kansas City over Pittsburgh

Philadelphia over Carolina


Super Bowl

Kansas City over Philadelphia

September 26, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 4: September 28-October 2, 2017

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:20 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Green Bay Chicago 10.8 11.4 10.6 46
Miami (London) New Orleans -3.0 -1.8 -3.6 52
New England Carolina 9.5 10.8 9.1 49
Dallas LA Rams 15.7 14.6 15.8 44
Minnesota Detroit 1.1 0.4 1.4 43
Houston Tennessee -0.1 0.1 -0.1 41
N. Y. Jets Jacksonville -2.5 -3.2 -2.5 43
Cleveland Cincinnati -1.2 -1.3 -1.0 37
Baltimore Pittsburgh -1.5 -1.7 -0.8 41
Atlanta Buffalo 10.3 9.5 10.4 53
Tampa Bay N. Y. Giants 3.7 2.8 4.5 38
LA Chargers Philadelphia 1.8 2.5 0.9 48
Arizona San Francisco 10.1 10.6 10.0 49
Denver Oakland 2.2 1.1 2.7 46
Seattle Indianapolis 9.1 8.9 8.7 44
Kansas City Washington 8.1 8.5 8.2 47

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
New England 105.7 106.4 105.5 105.8 24
Buffalo 98.6 99.0 99.0 98.9 22
Miami 97.6 97.7 97.1 97.5 21
N. Y. Jets 92.9 92.5 92.9 92.8 19
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Pittsburgh 104.6 105.0 104.3 104.7 22
Baltimore 101.2 101.3 101.5 101.3 19
Cincinnati 97.6 98.0 97.6 97.8 16
Cleveland 94.4 94.8 94.7 94.6 21
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Tennessee 101.2 101.3 100.7 101.1 25
Houston 98.1 98.4 97.7 98.1 16
Jacksonville 98.0 98.2 97.9 98.0 24
Indianapolis 95.4 95.7 95.1 95.4 25
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Kansas City 105.5 105.6 106.0 105.7 21
Oakland 104.3 104.8 104.0 104.4 26
Denver 103.5 102.8 103.8 103.4 20
LA Chargers 99.5 99.1 99.4 99.3 25
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Dallas 104.2 103.3 104.3 104.0 24
Philadelphia 101.2 100.1 102.0 101.1 23
Washington 100.4 100.1 100.8 100.4 26
N.Y. Giants 99.4 99.6 99.1 99.4 15
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Detroit 102.4 103.2 102.4 102.7 24
Green Bay 102.6 103.3 102.1 102.7 26
Minnesota 100.5 100.6 100.8 100.6 19
Chicago 94.2 94.5 94.0 94.2 20
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Atlanta 105.9 105.5 106.4 105.9 31
New Orleans 100.6 99.5 100.8 100.3 31
Tampa Bay 100.2 99.4 100.6 100.1 23
Carolina 99.2 98.5 99.3 99.0 25
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Seattle 101.0 101.1 100.3 100.8 19
Arizona 99.4 99.6 99.1 99.4 24
San Francisco 92.2 92.1 92.1 92.1 25
LA Rams 91.5 91.7 91.5 91.6 20

Our Official Statement on the Current Situation in the NFL

Neither side is right and neither side is wrong.  There is too much black and white in this world, and this is no different.  Life should not be an either or situation on everything that exists, but the human race has not evolved enough to get past this fact.

The problem is that neither side understands tactfulness, maturity, diplomacy, and statesmanship.  Maybe, consultants have advised the two factions to reduce the problem to childlike fighting, and that is sad if the populace can only understand issues when reduced to a childlike mentality.

Nevertheless, the problem is that an entertaining three-hour escape from the stress of the real world has now been altered into just another stressful afternoon.  The 6 members of the PiRate Ratings have decided that the situation has eliminated the needed escape that  NFL Football provided us–up to 56 years for our oldest contributor.  Thus, on Sunday, none of us attended or viewed a game.  Tickets went unused at Lambeau Field, LP Field, and U.S. Bank Stadium.  A fouth stadium, Firstenergy in Cleveland, will join this list this week.  As best as we can estimate, this is the first time since sometime in 1963 that at least once of us has failed to watch an NFL game.

We have received more emails than we can respond to this week, and we will refrain from giving out the email address for now, because it will take a couple weeks to reply to all of them.  But, it is obvious that you our reader are more than likely to stop watching and attending than to watch or attend.  Actually, we have yet to receive an email in support of the players, and we can only surmise that some of you that did not send us a message are still watching.

Feel free to comment in the comment section of this entry.  If you refrain from profanity and comment in a civil and intelligent manner, your comment will be accepted.  We will censor any profanity or below-the-belt comments.  We are a scientific/mathematic website more interested in the numbers than the individuals on either side of this issue.

For those that have not seen this unaltered, here are the exact words of the 1st Amendment of the Bill of Rights.

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances.

Why The Ratings Drop Does Matter

We have heard  many apologists proclaim that the drastic TV ratings drop had little or nothing to do with the current situation between the two opposing sides.  We have seen excuses such as “The Emmy Awards aired opposite SNF,” and “It was Oprah’s Debut on 60 Minutes.”

There is one telltale sign that tends to make us believe these apologies are off the mark.  While the ratings for the football games have dropped off the table, the ratings for the pre-game shows are actually up.  People are tuning in to the pre-game in greater numbers and then switching channels or turning the TV off before the kickoff.  This is a definite sign that the league has alienated a large number of fans, or maybe we should say former fans.  Turning the channel or turning off the TV in the middle of a time slot is considered a bigger deal than doing so at the top or bottom of the hour when programs change.  As a former journalist in radio and television, our founder understands the implications in local news when the ratings change during the weather segment or sports segment.


September 19, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 3: September 21-25, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Score
San Francisco LA Rams 3.8 3.3 3.9 41
Jacksonville (London) Baltimore -7.9 -7.8 -8.2 41
Indianapolis Cleveland 3.0 2.9 2.3 46
Chicago Pittsburgh -10.5 -10.3 -10.8 43
N. Y. Jets Miami -5.4 -6.1 -5.3 44
Buffalo Denver -4.1 -2.4 -4.4 41
New England Houston 12.0 12.1 12.4 38
Carolina New Orleans 6.0 6.0 6.4 58
Minnesota Tampa Bay -0.5 0.7 -1.1 41
Detroit Atlanta -0.7 0.5 -1.1 56
Philadelphia N. Y. Giants 4.0 2.5 5.3 36
Tennessee Seattle 2.9 2.8 3.0 43
LA Chargers Kansas City -3.5 -4.0 -3.8 48
Green Bay Cincinnati 9.1 9.5 8.7 44
Washington Oakland -2.5 -3.6 -1.9 53
Arizona Dallas -0.2 1.1 -0.2 48


The AFC West Could Have The Three Best Teams In The NFL
How could it be that the three best teams in the NFL might all play in the same division? Is it possible that Oakland, Kansas City, and Denver are the top three teams? You’d get a good argument from fans in New England, Atlanta, and maybe Pittsburgh and Baltimore, but through two weeks of the season, it is hard to say that any of the other teams outside of the AFC West are better than the top three.

Oakland owns a win at Tennessee, the team picked to win the AFC South by a majority of prognosticators. Kansas City won at New England, a team that many thought could go 16-0 this year. Denver blew Dallas off the field Sunday. All three teams are 2-0, and it is possible that all three teams will win double digit games this year.

Guess what? This isn’t the first time this division has been so strong. Let’s return to the golden age of yesteryear. Set the time travel clock back to 1967 and 1968. The old American Football League’s West Division had the same four teams as today’s AFC West–Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs, and Raiders (The Cincinnati Bengals would join in 1968).
Oakland had the incredible mad bomber Daryle Lamonica throwing lasers to Warren Wells and Fred Biletnikoff with bruising running backs Hewritt Dixon, Clem Daniels, and Pete Banaszak, and the Raiders’ offense was maybe one of the best of all time during that era. The Silver and Black attack topped 32 points per game in consecutive seasons. The Raider defense featured stars in all three units. Tom Keating and the inimitable Ben Davidson kept the FTD Florist company in business, as relatives of injured NFL quarterbacks frequently ordered get-well bouquets for their injured heroes. Dan Conners was one of the top middle linebackers in the game in an era where this position usually was the most important of all. The secondary was tough with stars Willie Brown and Kent McCloughan at the corners.

Kansas City played a more ball-controlled offense than Oakland, but their defense was just as dominating as the Raiders, and it made for the best rivalry in the history of organized football. The Chiefs offense was led by Len Dawson, the most accurate passer in the AFL. Dawson did not throw as many deep balls, but he had the arm and accuracy. With incredible run support from Mike Garrett, Robert Holmes, and Wendell Hayes, the Chiefs ran the ball more than the rest of the AFL during this time, and it allowed their great defense to stay on the sidelines for longer stretches. When KC’s defense took the field, it was a red storm. Tackle Buck Buchanan was the biggest defender in the league. Teams usually ran away from him, which funneled the ball carrier toward another star, end Jerry Mays.

The linebacker corps may have been the best trio of all time. Willie Lanier was the cream of the crop of middle linebackers. Bobby Bell and Jim Lynch manned the outside spots, and this group was responsible for stopping opponents from converting first downs on third and short. On the back line, Johnny Robinson was one of the top two or three safeties in the 10-year history of the AFL, if not the best. Emmitt Thomas was the equal of Oakland’s Brown on the outside.

San Diego had been the dominant AFL West team during the first half of the decade. The Chargers won the AFL West Five of the first six years. Beginning with the Chiefs-Raiders dominance in 1966 and carrying through the 1970’s, the Chargers continued to be a very good team, just not quite up to the standards of the big two. San Diego was known to get off to great starts and then fade in the last four weeks of the season. In 1966, San Diego was just a half-game behind Kansas City after eight weeks, but they finished 7-6-1 losing four of their last six. In 1967, the Chargers were 8-1-1 through 10 games, just a half-game behind Oakland at 9-1. The two teams squared off in the AFL Game of the Year in San Diego. The Chargers briefly looked like they had what it took to win that day, before Oakland wore them down and Lamonica tore the Chargers’ secondary to shreds. Oakland finished 13-1, while the Chargers lost all the rest of their games to fall to 8-5-1, good for third place. In 1968, through 10 games, the Chargers stood at 8-2, tied with Oakland and a half-game behind Kansas City, who had played 11 games and was 9-2. Once again, the Chargers crashed in December, falling to 9-5, while Oakland and Kansas City won out to finish tied at 12-2 (Oakland won in a playoff).

If we look at history in this division, two of the three current dominating teams should continue to dominate week after week, while the third team will eventually fall back. Having to play four games against the other two powers will take its toll on all three teams, and it figures that one team will have a tough time recovering from the beatings. Statistically, we could be looking at one team finishing 12-4, one team finishing 11-5, and the third team falling to 9-7. Of course, this could be totally off base, and all three teams could be on their way to finishing between 12-4 and 10-6. All three teams could easily make the playoffs, as it looks unlikely that the AFC East or AFC South will produce a wild card team this year.

Only Thrice in 62 Years!
Can you name the NFL team that has won its division only three times in the last 62 years? Obviously, 62 years back means this team has to be an original NFL team. That should make it easy for you. In the last 62 seasons, The Detroit Lions won their three Black and Blue Division titles in 1983, 1991, and 1993. They have been the bridesmaid more times than any other team during that period, finishing second 16 times through the years.

With Minnesota and Green Bay showing numerous liabilities through two weeks of the season, could this finally be the year that Matthew Stafford guides the Lions to the top of the NFC North? Might there be a playoff victory coming to Ford Field? The last time the Lions won a playoff game, it happened at the old Pontiac Silverdome. Detroit slaughtered Dallas that day in 1991 by a score of 38-6. It wasn’t the great Barry Sanders that did all the damage. Quarterback Erik Kramer had a career day against the Cowboys, throwing for 341 yards and three touchdowns, while the Lions’ defense picked off two passes and sacked Cowboy quarterback Troy Aikman three times.

The Offense Continues to Rest
Through two weeks of play, the median NFL score is just 19 points, down four points from last year’s total. You have to go back to 1993 to find less scoring for an entire season. The NFL total TV ratings are down by a huge amount this year through the first two weeks of the season. While many in the political world believe it has to do with players refusing to stand for the National Anthem, we tend to believe that the average fan doesn’t really pay attention to that factor. The game has become boring. Teams no longer pass the ball down the field vertically. Quarterbacks rarely throw the ball more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. When it’s 3rd and 12, they throw a five-yard pass, hoping the receiver can run for another seven. Running games have come down to three basic types–a line plunge, a stretch, and a draw. All 32 teams look identical, like they must share one playbook.

Why do we believe that the ratings are down simply due to boring games and not due to political issues? There is a very simple explanation for our beliefs. Throughout the nation, there is unrest on the university campuses from coast to coast. Riots, vandalism, assaults, and the like are on the rise, and civil unrest is more the norm than the deviant behavior. Some colleges are redefining what is free speech. The same people that would theoretically have issues with this change of sociology and would be likely to turn off college football games just like they would turn off NFL games due to similar unrest have yet to turn away. In fact, college football ratings are on the rise, gaining about as much as the NFL is losing.

Therefore, it is our belief that total football TV ratings are about on par with their historical averages. The change is that more people are now watching on Saturday than ever before, while Sunday viewing is sinking. It is obvious why this is so. College football is quite a bit more entertaining.

In the college game, you have multiple offensive philosophies. Even when multiple teams run the identical spread offense, there are many variations. Arizona’s and New Mexico’s spread offenses are basically 21st Century wishbone offenses that have evolved. Ohio State’s and Auburn’s spread offenses resemble the old single wing offenses of way back. Oklahoma’s and Clemson’s spread offenses look more like the old NFL Shotgun offenses and the really old TCU Spread of the 1950s. You also have smash-mouth T offenses with Michigan and others. You still have standard triple option offenses at Army, Navy, Air Force, Tulane, and Georgia Tech. There is variety, and on top of the varying offenses, there are numerous philosophies on how to implement these offenses.

It also doesn’t hurt the college game that the average fan can choose between four or five games at 12 PM, 3:30 PM, and 7 PM Eastern time, while the NFL does not give that option to the fans. If you live in an NFL city, you get your team’s game, and if they are at home, you get only your team’s game. CBS and Fox have to take turns getting double header games, so if your team is at home when its regular network (CBS for AFC and Fox for NFC) doesn’t have a double header, you get just one Sunday afternoon game.

The NFL has to understand that just because somebody lives in Atlanta, Charlotte, Nashville, or Jacksonville, it does not mean they have lived there their entire lives. Actually, in the rapidly expanding metropolis cities of the Sunny South, more fans have moved into this area from colder and less financially lucrative cities. Take Nashville for instance. The city gains 100 new residents every day. In the last three football seasons, 109,500 new residents have added to the Music City’s metro population. Of that 100K plus, a large number moved from New York City, Chicago, Los Angeles, Atlanta, Tampa-St. Pete, Detroit, Cincinnati, Washington DC, and Dallas. Of the football fans, many remain fans of their former city and have no ties with the Titans. Go to a local sports-themed eatery on Sunday afternoon, and you will find as many fans of other teams watching their former city’s team play than there are fans at LP Field watching the Titans.

If the NFL was smart, it would drop their holier than thou elite beliefs and realize that it might be today’s Walmart having to face the new reality that there is now a better option called Amazon, and the fans have discovered this option.


This Week’s NFL PiRate Ratings

East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
New England 106.4 107.0 106.3 106.5 24
Miami 99.6 99.8 99.3 99.6 23
Buffalo 97.5 98.2 97.7 97.8 22
N. Y. Jets 91.2 90.7 91.0 91.0 21
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Pittsburgh 105.9 106.1 105.8 106.0 22
Baltimore 103.4 103.5 103.7 103.5 18
Cincinnati 97.0 97.4 97.0 97.2 16
Cleveland 94.4 94.8 94.8 94.6 21
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Tennessee 101.0 101.1 100.5 100.9 25
Houston 97.4 97.8 96.9 97.4 14
Jacksonville 95.5 95.7 95.4 95.5 23
Indianapolis 95.4 95.7 95.0 95.4 25
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Oakland 105.4 106.0 105.1 105.5 28
Kansas City 105.2 105.4 105.6 105.4 22
Denver 104.6 103.6 105.1 104.4 19
LA Chargers 99.8 99.3 99.8 99.6 26
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Dallas 103.4 102.4 103.3 103.1 23
Philadelphia 101.3 100.1 102.2 101.2 22
Washington 99.3 98.9 99.7 99.3 25
N.Y. Giants 99.3 99.6 98.9 99.3 14
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Green Bay 103.2 103.9 102.7 103.3 28
Detroit 102.4 103.2 102.4 102.7 23
Minnesota 98.7 99.0 98.8 98.8 18
Chicago 92.9 93.4 92.5 92.9 21
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Atlanta 105.6 105.2 106.1 105.6 33
Tampa Bay 102.3 101.3 102.9 102.2 23
Carolina 101.4 100.5 101.7 101.2 25
New Orleans 98.4 97.5 98.4 98.1 33
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Seattle 101.2 101.3 100.5 101.0 18
Arizona 100.2 100.5 100.1 100.3 25
San Francisco 92.5 92.3 92.5 92.4 23
LA Rams 91.2 91.5 91.1 91.3 18

To estimate a game’s total points scored, add both teams’ totals.



December 22, 2016

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–December 23-26, 2016

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:26 pm

Our winning streak continued last week, as we won one of the two parlays.  By only playing parlays at better than EVEN money odds, simply going .500 guarantees a profitable result.

Last week’s 1-1 record returned $286 on our $200 investment for a return on investment of 43%.  For the year now, we have invested $6,300 (63 parlays at $100 each), and we have seen a return of $7,074 for an ROI of 12%.

Once again, we go only with NFL selections this week, and we go with two parlays.  The Thursday night game is not one of the selections, so we are coming out with this a bit later tonight.

Remember this important fact: These are presented to you just for fun.  We do not actually wager real money on these selections, and we urge you to think twice about doing so.  We have nothing to lose in our mythical investment’s, while you could lose your mortgage payment with a couple of bad weeks.

Okay, so here are our two picks for this week.  As you can see, all six teams in these parlays have a lot to play for in week 16.

December 23-26, 2016
1. NFL Parlay at +196
Buffalo over Miami
Tennessee over Jacksonville
Green Bay over Minnesota
2. NFL Parlay at +218
Washington over Chicago
Kansas City over Denver
Seattle over Arizona


December 15, 2016

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–December 16-19, 2016

NFL Hot Streak Continues

It has come to our attention by more than one of our readers that as of late, we are on fire with our NFL Money Line Parlay selections.  Looking back over the last several weeks, we find that we have won eight of the last ten NFL parlays we selected.


For the year, we are now sporting a profitable return of 11% on our investment of all picks, and that damage to the bottom line of the book comes from the NFL side.  To date, we have selected 20 NFL Parlays, all at better than even money odds.  We have won exactly half of these wagers at an average of +187 odds, for a return on investment of 43.55%.


Needless to say, we took a quick look at the college bowls offered up this weekend and chose to pass on selecting a college parlay.  Why take a chance on games between teams that have few common opponents when there appears to be a nice assortment of NFL games that look favorable to us.


Thus, we are selecting two NFL Parlays this week, both at better than +180 odds.  We will have a winning week if one of the pair wins, and we will have an outstanding week if they both win.  Even if they both lose, our yearly profit will still be there.


Once again, remember this important fact: The PiRates only issue these picks for fun and entertainment.  We do not encourage you to take our picks and wager actual money on them, even if it is legal to do so in your jurisdiction.  We only do this for fun, and we never actually wager anything on the picks other than our credibility.  If we thought they had real merit, we would be in Las Vegas trying to get rich quick, and to thaw out from the deep freeze.


So, enjoy these picks, but enjoy them without risking any of your hard-earned money.

December 16-19, 2016
1. NFL Parlay at +181
Kansas City over Tennessee
Atlanta over San Francisco
Oakland over San Diego
2. NFL Parlay at +186
Baltimore over Philadelphia
Green Bay over Chicago
Houston over Jacksonville




October 20, 2016

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–October 20-24, 2016

Not So Good

Last weekend was not a great one for the parlay-pickers at PiRate Headquarters.  We selected four longshot parlays and returned one winner at +192, as upsets by Eastern Michigan and Vanderbilt prevented a potential major windfall.

For the season, this drops our mediocre results to just plain not-so-good.  As usual, our solace is that we are not out a penny, because we never actually invest real currency (or whatever you call those green notes in your wallet).

We’re not all that enthused with this week’s schedule either.  It took an extra afternoon to come up with four picks, and we included two underdogs to win outright in our four plays.  Good luck with that.

It may be a better weekend to hike in the forest with all the changing colors on the trees.

1. College Parlay @ +209
California over Oregon
North Carolina over Virginia
West Virginia over TCU
2.College Parlay @ +234
Colorado over Stanford
Oklahoma over Texas Tech
Alabama over Texas A&M
Tulsa over Tulane
3. College Singleton @ +275
Arizona St. over Washington St.
4. NFL Parlay @ +208
Green Bay over Chicago
Cincinnati over Cleveland
Atlanta over San Diego
Denver over Houston

October 5, 2016

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–October 6-10, 2016

As Mr. Whipple might have said had he worked in our little firm, “Please don’t squeeze the PiRate Picks!”

Okay, so we have enjoyed two very successful weeks in a row with these money line parlay selections.  We followed up a 75% return on investment two weeks ago with a 24% return last week.  It only took one winning parlay to pull off the profit.  BUT, we only one thanks to a Hail Mary, and we didn’t even go to confession.

Yes, the Tennessee game appeared to doom us to total defeat last week, but the incredible finish did as much for us as it did for Butch Jones–it brought us to our knees.  Aside from Tennessee, the rest of the parlay included wins by Akron, Old Dominion, and Florida, giving us a return of $373 on our $100 investment.  Remember this, our bankroll and investments are entirely mere illusion; we do not ever wager any real currency on our selections, and we highly recommend that you do not either.  We know from our site statistics that some of you reading this weekly entry do so from Las Vegas.  We don’t think Billy Walters, or any of his “friends” are reading this, because Mr. Walters is intelligent and knows how to win.  What we fear is that Billy Doe has his rent money at the betting window with his iPhone in hand looking at our picks, while Mrs. Doe and brood cannot find food in their refrigerator back home.

For the season, our total picks now show a minor loss of 6%, which is about where we were this time last year, before we went on a six-week winning streak that took us north of +50%.

There are two reasons why this week’s picks were very difficult for us.  First, the number of NFL teams getting byes moves from two to four teams.  Second, Hurricane Matthew is causing a lot of logistic issues as teams in Florida, South Carolina, and North Carolina scramble to re-schedule games–some to later dates; some moving up a day; and some moving the location of the game.  If we like a home team at a certain line, and then the game moves to another state or does not play at all, it wrecks the selection.  So, we had to greatly limit the pool this week and barely scraped together three selections.  Because we would have to go 2-1 to make a profit, it would not be worth going with three long shot parlays when we can make a profit by going 1-1.  This then presented an additional problem; which parlay would we eliminate?

Four hours later, we realized that our choosing to eliminate what we liked was like playing Tic-Tac-Toe with a computer that always knows the correct response.  Infinite draws lead to a lot of head-banging, and we already have too many concussions between us.  So, we did what we thought best and added a fourth game that will allow us to go 2-2 and make a profit.  However, the fourth game is not a parlay at all; it is a straight wager on the underdog to win outright.

Selection #1: College Parlay at +155

Memphis over Temple

Alabama over Arkansas

Auburn over Mississippi St.

Memphis looked like an SEC team playing at Ole Miss last week.  The Tigers don’t have Paxton Lynch, but the rest of the team looks a little better than last year’s edition.  Temple has regressed a bit this year, and we think the home team from the Bluff City will win the game.

Until somebody actually pins a loss on the defending champs, we are not going to select against Alabama.  To date in 2016, the Crimson Tide have looked like they could score 70 points per game if the offense needed to.  And, the defense is still among the best in the nation.  This team reminds us some of the 1966 Tide team, which went undefeated.

Auburn is slightly favored in Starkville against the Bulldogs.  Mississippi State is 10-14 points weaker this year without Dak Prescott.  Prescott hid some liabilities in last year’s Maroon and White.


Selection #2: College Parlay at +189 

Tulsa over SMU

Oklahoma St. over Iowa St.

Utah over Arizona

Michigan St. over BYU

Ohio U over Bowling Green

Tulsa had an extra week to prepare for their game against SMU, while the Mustangs faced Temple on the road after playing TCU the week before.  Now, SMU has to play at Skelly Stadium, and it has the makings of a 20 or more point win for TU.

Iowa State had a tough and emotional loss at home to Baylor last week and now goes on the road to play an Oklahoma State team that has a little added confidence after shredding Texas.

Utah rarely loses at home, and when the Utes’ do lose in Salt Lake City, it is usually against a powerhouse team.  Arizona is no powerhouse; they are more like a wind-up dynamo for an emergency radio.  In other words, Utah should win by double digits this week.

Michigan State is in a must-win situation this week with non-conference foe BYU coming to East Lansing.  A loss puts the Spartans in danger of finishing under .500 for the season, and we cannot see a Mark Dantonio team go 5-7.  BYU is having a rough re-adjustment under new management, and Bronco Mendenhall’s recent success in his first year at Virginia shows us that he was worth a lot more points as a coach than his average peer.

The Ohio U-Bowling Green line is a bit odd to us.  We feel it should be much more in favor of the Bobcats, but we will gladly take what we feel is some extra juice.  What Coach Mendenhall was to BYU, current Syracuse coach Dino Babers was to BGU.  This brings us to the next contest.


Selection #3: College Money Line Game @ +130

Syracuse over Wake Forest

This is not a parlay; it is a straight pick of the underdog to pull off the upset.  There is a tiny bit of concern here, because weather could be a factor in Winston-Salem.  The Demon Deacons’ athletic department has no plans to change the time or place of this game, but still, it could be wet and windy.  Wet doesn’t bother us, and in fact, we like passing teams playing on wet surfaces.  Wind does bother us.  A gentle breeze is not that much of a factor, but a 25 mile per hour gust can adjust a thrown football by enough to turn a completion into an incomplete or even intercepted pass.

Nevertheless, we like the Orangemen in this game.  Wake Forest is a close-to-the-vest conservative team.  They own a win over a more wide open Indiana team two weeks ago, but the Hoosiers wrapped that game up as a gift to the Deacs.

Meanwhile, Syracuse has looked better and better offensively every week under the Babers version of the spread passing game.  We believe SU will outscore Wake and pull off the upset.


Selection #4: NFL Parlay @ +199

Pittsburgh over N.Y. Jets

Baltimore over Washington

Indianapolis over Chicago

Honestly, we did not love any of the NFL picks this week.  These are the only three games that we could combine into a parlay worth playing.  Our selections were more about the losing team than the predicted winner.

Ryan Fitzpatrick has reverted back to his old Pickpatrick days.  He has thrown nine intereceptions the last two weeks, and the Jets have begun to look like the Browns during that time.  Meanwhile, the Steelers had the look of an AFC Champion contender last week, and they host this game this week.

Baltimore needs to win to keep pace with the Steelers and stay ahead of the Bengals, while the Redskins look to us to be a paper tiger at 2-2.

Indianapolis is now facing a must-win situation at home against the lowly Bears.  Already two games in back of Houston, the Colts cannot afford to lose a home game to a probable double-digit loss team.  With Houston having to face Minnesota, it gives the Colts a chance to get back to within a game of the Texans in a division that is almost assured to produce just one playoff team.

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