The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 4, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 14: December 6-10, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Tennessee Jacksonville 0.6 0.9 0.3 39
Kansas City Baltimore 8.0 8.0 8.1 51
Houston Indianapolis 5.0 6.3 5.7 49.5
Cleveland Carolina -2.1 -1.4 -1.4 49
Green Bay Atlanta 2.6 3.3 2.6 49.5
Tampa Bay New Orleans -13.5 -13.5 -13.1 53.5
Buffalo N.Y. Jets 0.2 0.7 0.6 41
Miami New England -8.2 -9.2 -9.0 44.5
Chicago L.A. Rams -0.6 -1.3 0.0 52.5
Washington N.Y. Giants 1.8 0.9 1.4 44
San Francisco Denver -6.1 -6.1 -6.4 43
L.A. Chargers Cincinnati 13.3 13.9 14.2 47.5
Arizona Detroit -1.3 -1.5 -1.0 43
Dallas Philadelphia 4.1 4.3 4.4 41
Oakland Pittsburgh -12.8 -12.7 -12.6 46
Seattle Minnesota 4.8 4.9 5.8 44

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings 

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 105.9 106.4 106.4 106.2 22.5 9-3
Miami 94.7 94.3 94.4 94.4 22 6-6
N. Y. Jets 94.6 94.1 94.1 94.3 23.5 3-9
Buffalo 92.9 92.8 92.7 92.8 17.5 4-8
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 106.5 106.5 106.2 106.4 24.5 7-4-1
Baltimore 102.9 103.2 102.9 103.0 21 7-5
Cleveland 96.6 96.9 97.3 96.9 24.5 4-7-1
Cincinnati 94.3 94.4 93.9 94.2 23.5 5-7
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Houston 102.8 103.1 103.6 103.1 24 9-3
Indianapolis 100.3 99.3 100.3 100.0 25.5 6-6
Jacksonville 98.8 98.5 98.6 98.6 19 4-8
Tennessee 96.9 96.8 96.4 96.7 20 6-6
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 107.9 108.2 108.0 108.0 30 10-2
LA Chargers 104.5 105.3 105.1 105.0 24 9-3
Denver 101.8 101.7 101.7 101.7 20.5 6-6
Oakland 90.7 90.8 90.6 90.7 21.5 2-10
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Dallas 101.9 102.0 101.7 101.9 19 7-5
Philadelphia 100.7 100.7 100.4 100.6 22 6-6
N.Y. Giants 96.3 96.5 96.6 96.5 22 4-8
Washington 96.2 95.4 96.0 95.9 22 6-6
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Chicago 104.2 104.2 105.0 104.5 23.5 8-4
Minnesota 102.4 102.4 102.1 102.3 21 6-5-1
Green Bay 99.1 99.5 98.7 99.1 24 4-7-1
Detroit 98.4 98.2 97.8 98.1 24.5 4-8
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 112.5 112.6 112.8 112.6 27.5 10-2
Carolina 101.3 100.8 101.1 101.1 24.5 6-6
Atlanta 99.5 99.2 99.1 99.2 25.5 4-8
Tampa Bay 96.0 96.1 96.7 96.3 26 5-7
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 107.9 108.4 108.1 108.1 29 11-1
Seattle 104.2 104.3 104.9 104.5 23 7-5
Arizona 94.6 94.2 94.3 94.4 18.5 3-9
San Francisco 93.2 93.1 92.8 93.0 22.5 2-10

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Kansas City
2 New England
3 Houston
4 Pittsburgh
5 L.A. Chargers
6 Baltimore
NFC Seeding
1 L.A. Rams
2 New Orleans
3 Chicago
4 Philadelphia
5 Seattle
6 Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round
Houston over Baltimore
L.A. Chargers over Pittsburgh
Chicago over Minnesota
Philadelphia over Seattle

 

Divisional Round
L.A. Chargers over Kansas City
New England over Houston
New Orleans over Chicago
L.A. Rams over Philadelphia

 

Conference Championship
L.A. Chargers over New England
L.A. Rams over New Orleans

 

Super Bowl 53
L.A. Rams over L.A. Chargers

 

 

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November 13, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 11: November 15-19, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Seattle Green Bay 5.3 4.7 6.1 46.5
Detroit Carolina -1.3 -1.1 -1.8 51
Atlanta Dallas 3.7 3.5 4.1 45
Baltimore Cincinnati 9.3 9.3 9.2 45
Chicago Minnesota 4.2 3.7 5.0 45
New Orleans Philadelphia 13.0 13.1 14.0 50
Indianapolis Tennessee 1.6 0.3 2.0 45.5
Washington Houston 0.2 -0.6 0.2 45.5
N.Y. Giants Tampa Bay 3.4 3.6 3.2 47
L.A. Chargers Denver 6.7 7.8 7.7 44
Arizona Oakland 9.0 8.3 9.5 38.5
Jacksonville Pittsburgh -5.1 -5.8 -5.6 43.5
L.A. Rams * Kansas City -0.6 -0.2 -1.2 56.5
L. A. Rams Kansas City 2.4 2.8 1.8 56.5
* This is a neutral site game to be played in Mexico City

This game has now been moved back to LA due to unplayable field conditions in Mexico City.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 104.5 104.9 104.6 104.7 23 7-3
N. Y. Jets 94.6 94.0 94.3 94.3 23 3-7
Miami 94.5 94.1 94.2 94.2 22 5-5
Buffalo 92.3 92.2 91.9 92.1 17 3-7
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 107.5 107.7 107.6 107.6 24 6-2-1
Baltimore 103.0 103.3 102.9 103.1 21 4-5
Cincinnati 96.7 97.0 96.7 96.8 24 5-4
Cleveland 95.8 96.1 96.5 96.1 24 3-6-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Houston 101.0 101.1 101.2 101.1 24 6-3
Tennessee 100.2 100.5 100.1 100.3 19 5-4
Jacksonville 99.4 99.0 99.1 99.1 19.5 3-6
Indianapolis 98.9 97.8 99.0 98.6 26.5 4-5
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 107.7 108.0 108.1 107.9 28.5 9-1
LA Chargers 103.3 104.1 103.7 103.7 23 7-2
Denver 99.2 98.8 98.5 98.8 21 3-6
Oakland 89.8 89.8 89.3 89.6 20 1-8
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 101.4 101.5 101.0 101.3 22 4-5
Dallas 99.9 99.8 99.3 99.7 19.5 4-5
Washington 98.7 97.9 98.9 98.5 21.5 6-3
N.Y. Giants 95.5 95.5 95.6 95.5 20.5 2-7
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Chicago 104.2 104.1 105.0 104.4 23.5 6-3
Minnesota 102.6 102.8 102.5 102.6 21.5 5-3-1
Green Bay 100.2 100.8 99.9 100.3 24.5 4-4-1
Detroit 98.9 98.8 98.6 98.8 26 3-6
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 111.4 111.6 112.0 111.7 28 8-1
Carolina 102.7 102.3 102.9 102.6 25 6-3
Atlanta 101.1 100.9 100.9 100.9 25.5 4-5
Tampa Bay 94.6 94.4 94.9 94.6 26.5 3-6
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 107.1 107.7 107.0 107.3 28 9-1
Seattle 102.5 102.5 103.0 102.7 22 4-5
Arizona 96.3 95.7 96.2 96.1 18.5 2-7
San Francisco 95.0 95.2 94.9 95.0 22.5 2-8

 

This Week’s NFL Playoff Projections

As we enter week 11, we add a look at current playoff standings if the season ended today.

Current Playoff Standings

AFC
1 Kansas City
2 Pittsburgh
3 New England
4 Houston
5 L.A. Chargers
6 Cincinnati

 

NFC
1 L.A. Rams
2 New Orleans
3 Chicago
4 Washington
5 Carolina
6 Minnesota

 

Our Projections 

AFC Seeding
1 L.A. Chargers
2 Pittsburgh
3 New England
4 Houston
5 Kansas City
6 Tennessee

 

NFC Seeding
1 New Orleans
2 L.A. Rams
3 Chicago
4 Washington
5 Carolina
6 Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round
New England over Tennessee
Houston over Kansas City
Chicago over Minnesota
Carolina over Washington

 

Divisional Round
L.A. Chargers over Houston
Pittsburgh over New England
New Orleans over Carolina
L.A. Rams over Chicago

 

Conference Championships
Pittsburgh over L.A. Chargers
New Orleans over L.A. Rams

 

Super Bowl 53
New Orleans over Pittsburgh

 

Can the New York Giants Pull Off The Nearly Impossible?

Prior to week 10, members of the New York Giants claimed to the media that they could win their final eight games and finish 9-7 and make the playoffs.  With a 1-7 record at the time of this statement, the chances of winning eight consecutive games and moving from last place to first place was so infinitesimal that the odds of winning the lottery were not much worse.

Yet, if the Giants were to win just one game in the first half of the schedule and then go undefeated in the second half of the schedule to win the division and make the playoffs, it would have precedent.  Yes, this has been done one time before in the post-merger era.

In fact, it was the first year of the merger between the NFL and former AFL.  In the AFC Central, the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers had moved from the former NFL Century Division along with Houston and Cincinnati.  Entering the season, Cleveland was the heavy favorite to breeze to the division title and the second pick to the Baltimore Colts (Which had moved from the NFL Coastal Division to the AFC East Division, as it was ridiculous for the Colts and Rams to be in the same division).  The Browns had advanced to the NFL Championship Game in 1969 and returned the bulk of their roster.

Pittsburgh had been the worst team in the NFL in 1969, going 1-13.  Still, the Steelers were expected to contend with a mediocre Houston Oilers team for second place in the division, but nobody expected either team to contend with Cleveland or for the newly created single Wildcard spot for the AFC.

And, then there was Cincinnati.  The Bengals had been in existence for just two seasons.  They were a dismal 3-11 in 1968, but in 1969, they had one fantastic rookie quarterback.  Greg Cook, a local hero who had been a star quarterback at Chillicothe High School and the University of Cincinnati, had been the Bengals’ first round pick in the  1969 draft.  Cook immediately won the starting quarterback job in training camp.  He was a gunslinger type passer, typical of the type of quarterback that made the AFL more exciting than the conservative NFL.  The Bengals, led by legendary coach Paul Brown, rarely threw short passes.  Their strategy was to stretch the field vertically to open up running lanes for their two starting running backs, halfback Paul Robinson fullback Jess Phillips.

Cook’s debut was similar to Pat Mahomes this year with the Chiefs.  In his very first game, the Bengals beat Miami thanks to two long touchdown passes from Cook to receiver Eric Crabtree.  Nobody thought too much of the game, since the Dolphins were also an expansion team that had yet to build up a decent roster.  In week two, Cincinnati hosted a San Diego Chargers team that was a contender for the AFL West title.  The Chargers were big favorites, and Cook once again hooked up for two long touchdown passes, one to Bob Trumpy and one to future head coach Bruce Coslet.

At 2-0, the Bengals picked up a little notice, but week three was going to obviously be their week for comeuppance.  The powerful Kansas City Chiefs with the best defense in AFL history were coming to the Queen City.  Cook would have no chance against the best defensive line in all of football, the line that would lead KC to the Super Bowl title in a few months.  Because of the great start, NBC made this their nationally televised AFL Game in the early time slot, and yours truly was perched in front of the big Zenith TV watching this game in all hopes that the new phenom could become another Joe Namath and Daryle Lamonica for the much “funner” AFL.

Cook once again opened this game with brilliant passing plays to set up his running backs.  After spotting the Chiefs a couple of field goals, Cook led the Bengals on a scoring drive that ended with a scoring pass to Crabtree.  The Bengals led 7-6, but their history was about to be changed forever.  In the second quarter, Cook dropped back to pass and faced a Chiefs’ blitz by the outside linebackers.  Chiefs’ outside linebacker Jim Lynch knocked Cook to the ground, forcing all his weight on Cook’s throwing shoulder.  Cook would later say he heard his shoulder pop, and he exited the game with intense pain.

The Bengals hung on to win behind back up QB and future head coach Sam Wyche.  They were an incredible 3-0 and led the AFL West over the Chiefs and Raiders.  However, their gunslinger was out of bullets for the next three weeks.  Had doctors been able to diagnose a torn rotator cuff, they would have held Cook out for the rest of the year, but 1969 was a different time.  Cook was expected to come back and play in four weeks, maybe even less if he felt strong enough to throw.

He came back two weeks later, because the Bengals could not move the ball without him in the lineup.  They failed at San Diego and fell to 3-1.  Cook wasn’t ready to face the second best defense in the league in the New York Jets.  He could not get any strength behind his passes, and the Jets’ pass rush forced him to throw quickly in fear of further hurting his shoulder.  He didn’t last a half.  He had to leave the game in the second quarter, and the Bengals lost to the Jets by 14.  It was a mistake for him to try to play, and his shoulder hurt worse than it had after the initial injury.

Cook was held out of play the next two weeks, and the Bengals looked more like the expansion team they were.  A weak Denver team pummeled them, and then the Chiefs punished them in a revenge match at Municipal Stadium in Kansas City.  The loss dropped the Bengals to 3-4 at the halfway mark.  Cincinnati would have to win out to have any chance of making the playoffs, and they had yet to play the powerhouse team of the league, the Oakland Raiders.

Oakland had yet to lose a game in 1969.  This Raiders’ team looked as strong if not stronger than the two previous teams that went 13-1 and 12-2.  At 6-0-1, Oakland led Kansas City by a half-game.  Once again, this was the nationally televised AFL game on NBC that week, and yours truly sat in front of the ole Zenith ready to route the silver and black to an easy victory.

Cook made his last hurrah in this game.  Brown showed his genius in this game.  He used his wideouts as decoys, sending them deep, while placing his tight ends to run intermediate routes over the middle.  Cook hit Trumpy over and over across the middle, setting up third receiver Chip Myers as a surprise.  The strategy worked, and thanks to the Bengals’ defense picking off a trio of Lamonica passes in the first half, Cinti led 24-0 at the half on way to an easy 31-17 victory.  It would be Oakland’s only loss of the season, and it would be the Bengals’ last win of the season.

Cook limped through the rest of the year unable to put any zip on the ball, and the Bengals finished 4-9-1 and in last place in the AFL West.  Prospects were still high for the Bengals, because after an off-season of rest Cook would be ready to return to form in 1970.

However, things did not go according to plan.  Cook never again regained his arm strength as his rotator cuff injury did not heal itself on its own.  He would never again start a game for the Bengals or anybody else.  He appeared briefly in one game four years later, but it was obvious that he would never again be an NFL quarterback.

The Bengals entered 1970 picked to finish in last place, because Sam Wyche was not the quarterback to lead a team to victory in the new AFC.  He didn’t have the arm accuracy of Cook, and he lacked the finesse to hit shorter passes with much success.  The Bengals would have to try to win by pounding the ball with Phillips, Robinson, and new addition Essex Johnson.

In week one, the Bengals pulled off their miracle for the season, or at least that’s what most sports fans believed.  The three running backs combined for 200 rushing yards, and Wyche even contributed with his legs, scoring a rushing touchdown.  Cincinnati upset Oakland once again.

Over the next six weeks, the Bengals performed exactly like they were expected to perform–miserably.  In their first interconference game in their history, Detroit ran over them like a fleet of automobiles leaving the plant.  The passing stats were plain awful–64 yards!  Losses piled up against Houston, Cleveland, Kansas City, Washington, and Pittsburgh.

At the halfway point of the season, Cleveland led the AFC Central with a disappointing 4-3 record.  As expected, Pittsburgh and Houston fought for second place.  The Steelers were 3-4, while the Oilers were 2-4-1.  The Bengals were 1-6, and it looked like a similar second half would give Cincinnati the chance to draft at the top of the 1970 Draft, where Jim Plunkett and Archie Manning were there for the taking.

The Bengals players refused to give up.  A smart future NFL legend was on the Brown’s staff, and he came to Brown with an idea.  Insert backup Virgil Carter at quarterback for Wyche.  Carter had flamed out in Chicago, where he was best when he turned and handed the ball to Gayle Sayers.  Carter had an accurate arm and rather quick ability to read defenses, but his arm strength limited the types of passes he could throw.  Anything longer than 20 yards downfield looked like a beach ball floating to defensive backs.

This intelligent assistant was Bill Walsh.  His idea was what we know today as the West Coast Offense, but it should have been called the Ohio River offense.  Walsh went to Brown with ideas to spread the field horizontally and use all 53 plus yards from sideline to sideline, which would also create holes for the backs to run through, and better yet, more defensive players would be out of position to make tackles if they were spread wide.

Carter had actually become the starting quarterback a few weeks earlier, but it wasn’t until the Bengals went to War Memorial Stadium in Buffalo that the new strategy was implemented.  At 3-4, the Bills were going nowhere, but they had a rookie running back that had to be stopped in O.J. Simpson.  The Bengals figured the best way to stop Simpson was to keep the ball out of Simpson’s hands.  They tried their new ball-control short passing strategy.  It had only mediocre success, but the Bengals’ defense and special teams scored three touchdowns and set up another, as Cincinnati rolled to a 43-14 victory to improve to 2-6.  Cleveland lost to Oakland to fall into a first place tie with Pittsburgh at 4-4, while Houston fell to 2-5-1.  The Bengals were still in last place, but there was a glimmer of hope just two games behind the co-leaders.

In week 9, Cleveland came to Riverfront Stadium in the most important game in the Bengals’ early franchise history.  With Pittsburgh having to play the Chiefs, there was a chance that Cincinnati could finish the day just one game behind the two co-leaders.

Of course, this meant that Cincinnati had to win against their bitter enemy, the team named for their own coach.  It was a cold and windy day, and long passes were not easy to attempt.  Cleveland QB Mike Phipps saw some early success, but he could do nothing else once the winds picked up.  The Bengals shut down Leroy Kelly, and after trailing 10-0, they slowly came back with their short passing game.  The biggest threat this day came off the passing game, but it did not necessarily come from the passes themselves.  Carter noticed that the Browns’ linebackers were dropping wide into the flat zones, as Cleveland tried to take away the short hook and out patterns.  It left a gaping hole in the middle of the field, and when the Browns rushed from the outside-in, it looked to Carter like he could have driven his car in the opening.  Carter actually topped 100 yards rushing for the only time in his career, and Cincinnati upset the Browns.

Pittsburgh lost to the Chiefs, while Houston lost again.  Now, the Browns and Steelers were tied at 4-5, while Cincnnati was 3-6 and Houston was 2-6-1.  The Bengals could see their opportunity.  They were all of a sudden the only hot team in the division.  They truly believed that they would keep winning.  Better yet, the schedule got easier from this point on.

Pittsburgh came to Riverfront the next week, and the Bengals were now a short favorite to win the game.  While Cleveland put Houston out of their misery to square their record at 5-5, Cincinnati blew the Steelers off the astroturf.  Terry Bradshaw lasted long enough to toss three interceptions before getting yanked in favor of Terry Hanratty, but by then, the outcome had been decided.  Pinpoint passing by Carter, solid running by Robinson, and a solid effort by the defense led the Bengals to another blowout win.  Now, after 10 weeks, Cleveland could hear the roar of the Bengals.  The Browns still led the division at 5-5, but Cincinnati was 4-6, while Pittsburgh was also 4-6, making this an exciting race down the stretch

In week 11, Cincinnati benefited from having the worst team in the NFC come to town, and the Bengals clawed New Orleans for an easy victory.  Meanwhile, the Steelers knocked off the Browns, roughing up Phipps and forcing old veteran Bill Nelsen to finish the game.  The three teams were now tied at 5-6, and the media were starting to get on the Bengals’ bandwagon.

Week 12 was the big one.  Cincinnati’s only really tough remaining game took them across the continent to San Diego to face a Chargers team fighting in a three-way race in the AFC West.  It was a must-win game for both teams.  San Diego would be all but eliminated with a loss, while a win and losses by the Raiders and Chiefs would give them a chance to sneak in at the end.

The game was a tough defensive struggle, and for the only time since the implementation of the short passing game, Cincinnati could not move the ball with short passes.  San Diego begged Carter to throw long, and when he did, he was off target.  The Bengals would finish with zero net passing yards this Sunday, and the running game would manage 136 yards.  Few teams win NFL games with 136 total yards, but when you have the best punt returner in football in Lemar Parrish, sometimes you win games on 83-yard punt returns, which is what Cincinnati did when they edged the Chargers by three.

Cleveland topped a breathless Oilers team, but Pittsburgh lost to Green Bay.  The Bengals and Browns stayed tied at 6-6, while Pittsburgh was still in the race at 5-7, but obviously on the verge of elimination.

Week 13 saw the NFL experts picking the obvious.  Cincinnati played at the breathless Oilers, while Cleveland was forced to play the other hot team in the league in Dallas.  The Bengals had no trouble quickly topping the Oilers, rushing for close to 200 yards, while Carter got some rest in the second half.  At the same time, Cleveland could not move the ball at all against the surging Cowboys.  They lost a defensive struggle where they could only muster a safety.  Now, with one week to play, Cincinnati led the division at 7-6, while Cleveland was 6-7.  Pittsburgh lost to Atlanta and was eliminated at 5-8.

All Cincinnati had to do to complete the miraculous turnaround from 1-6 to 8-6 was to top a weak 2-11 Boston Patriots team at Riverfront Stadium.  Cleveland had to beat Denver, as they held the tiebreaker over the Bengals should both teams finish 7-7.

It was never in doubt.  Boston was now in star franchise quarterback mode.  A loss to the Bengals would give the Patriots their choice of Plunkett or Manning.  They wanted Plunkett, and they were sure to get him.  The Patriots looked worse than the 1976 Tampa Bay Bucs would look in six years.  Cincinnati looked like the 1962 Green Bay Packers this day, as they rolled to a 45-7 victory.  Carter’s day was over early, after he went 3 for 3 for 96 yards and a TD.  Cincinnati had done the almost impossible–going from last place and 1-6 in the first half to first place and 7-0 in the second half.  The Bengals were inept against eventual Super Bowl Champion Baltimore in the first round of the playoffs when the Colts used the same tactics as the Chargers to stop the Cincinnati short passing game.  It was still an incredible year to remember in the Queen City, as a third year team won its division.

Now, can the 2018 New York Giants go from 1-7 to 9-7 and win the division?  Chances are less than the chances Cincinnati faced for multiple reasons.

First, the team at the top of the standings, Washington, is 6-3.  The Browns were never three games over .500 in 1970.  It’s possible that the Redskins could go 2-5 the rest of the way, but chances are less than 50-50 that will happen.

Second, Dallas and Philadelphia are not Pittsburgh and Houston.  You have the reigning World Champions that have yet to find their way in 2018, but they are not likely to fold.  Dallas may be an 8-8 team at best, but just one upset in the final weeks could move the Cowboys to 9-7.

Lastly, this Giants team just isn’t good enough to win eight consecutive games.  All they have done so far is beat a lowly 49ers team on Monday Night Football.  Unlike the Bengals in 1970, the 2018 Giants have a tough, almost brutal, closing schedule.  They are one-point favorites over Tampa Bay this week, but they will be underdogs in the rest of their games against the Eagles, Bears, Redskins, Titans, Colts, and Cowboys.  The more likely scenario is a 4-12 finish and not a 9-7 finish.

 

 

November 4, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 11

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday November 6
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Buffalo Kent St. 22.1 23.1 23.3

 

Wednesday November 7
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Miami (O) Ohio U -3.7 -3.3 -2.3
Northern Illinois Toledo 0.2 -0.1 0.5

 

Thursday November 8
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
North Carolina St. Wake Forest 11.7 13.2 13.5

 

Friday November 9
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Syracuse Louisville 22.9 22.1 23.2
Boise St. Fresno St. -2.0 -2.3 -2.9

 

Saturday November 10
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Houston Temple 1.8 2.5 1.5
Rutgers Michigan -40.1 -39.9 -42.5
Pittsburgh Virginia Tech -1.4 -0.6 -0.8
Boston College Clemson -19.6 -19.4 -20.6
Texas A&M Ole Miss 13.3 12.4 13.2
Tennessee Kentucky -13.0 -11.2 -13.3
Massachusetts BYU -16.5 -15.3 -16.5
Virginia Liberty 26.1 26.9 25.1
Georgia Southern Troy 1.2 1.6 0.3
Iowa St. Baylor 15.8 16.1 16.0
Central Florida Navy 30.0 28.3 30.8
West Virginia TCU 10.6 11.0 11.6
Georgia Tech Miami (Fla.) 4.3 5.0 5.0
Kansas St. Kansas 7.3 7.4 8.1
Eastern Michigan Akron 7.4 7.7 7.8
Indiana Maryland -1.4 -1.1 -0.7
Connecticut SMU -18.9 -18.4 -19.5
Duke North Carolina 13.9 12.9 13.7
Oklahoma Oklahoma St. 16.1 16.7 16.7
Iowa Northwestern 9.0 9.0 8.9
Cincinnati South Florida 12.9 13.2 13.9
Coastal Carolina Arkansas St. -6.5 -5.4 -7.2
Tulane East Carolina 15.3 16.1 15.9
Utah Oregon 9.7 8.1 9.5
Colorado Washington St. -9.1 -7.5 -8.2
Marshall Charlotte 18.1 18.4 18.4
Old Dominion North Texas -15.6 -14.6 -16.5
Central Michigan Bowling Green 8.0 10.0 8.5
Nevada Colorado St. 12.8 12.2 13.3
Stanford Oregon St. 32.1 31.9 33.6
UTEP Middle Tennessee -17.5 -16.1 -18.8
Georgia Auburn 15.9 14.6 15.6
Penn St. Wisconsin 8.8 8.8 9.5
Alabama Mississippi St. 24.1 24.3 24.7
Air Force New Mexico 14.2 13.7 14.9
Missouri Vanderbilt 19.1 17.4 20.0
Nebraska Illinois 12.8 12.0 12.8
Minnesota Purdue -14.2 -13.9 -14.7
Memphis Tulsa 12.6 14.5 13.2
Florida South Carolina 3.1 2.4 4.3
USC California 3.9 4.5 3.1
Texas Tech Texas 1.2 1.5 1.0
Arkansas LSU -16.4 -18.2 -18.7
Utah St. San Jose St. 35.3 35.7 38.0
Texas St. Appalachian St. -21.4 -20.3 -22.5
Louisiana Georgia St. 9.0 9.2 10.1
Florida Atlantic Western Kentucky 20.9 19.3 20.9
South Alabama UL-Monroe -7.7 -6.4 -8.0
Louisiana Tech Rice 28.6 27.9 30.9
UTSA Florida Int’l. -10.3 -9.9 -10.4
Notre Dame Florida St. 21.8 20.2 21.6
UAB Southern Miss. 17.2 16.8 17.8
Michigan St. Ohio St. -0.2 -0.3 -0.4
Arizona St. UCLA 16.3 15.5 18.6
San Diego St. UNLV 22.7 21.7 23.1

 

FBS FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
Army Lafayette 47.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 142.0 140.3 143.6 142.0
2 Clemson 139.2 136.9 140.1 138.7
3 Michigan 130.2 129.0 131.0 130.0
4 Georgia 128.9 126.3 130.0 128.4
5 Notre Dame 124.2 121.5 123.1 122.9
6 Oklahoma 123.0 121.8 123.3 122.7
7 Ohio St. 121.7 119.7 121.5 121.0
8 Washington 121.0 118.9 121.6 120.5
9 Mississippi St. 120.4 118.5 121.4 120.1
10 L S U 119.1 118.4 120.2 119.2
11 Missouri 119.0 117.5 120.1 118.8
12 Michigan St. 118.4 116.4 118.1 117.7
13 Penn St. 118.1 115.5 117.9 117.2
14 Iowa 116.6 114.8 116.4 115.9
15 Boston College 116.6 114.4 116.4 115.8
16 Auburn 115.5 114.3 116.9 115.6
17 Utah 115.7 114.0 116.1 115.3
18 West Virginia 115.6 114.6 114.9 115.0
19 Central Florida 114.4 114.6 114.7 114.6
20 Fresno St. 114.3 113.9 115.0 114.4
21 Iowa State 114.7 113.3 114.6 114.2
22 Kentucky 114.5 113.2 114.4 114.0
23 Stanford 114.6 112.3 114.8 113.9
24 Georgia Tech 114.2 113.2 114.0 113.8
25 Texas A&M 113.9 112.5 114.1 113.5
26 Purdue 113.8 112.2 113.6 113.2
27 Washington St. 113.0 111.8 112.6 112.5
28 Texas 113.1 111.5 112.4 112.3
29 Miami 112.9 111.2 112.0 112.1
30 Utah St. 111.1 112.5 112.5 112.0
31 N. Carolina St. 112.2 111.6 111.9 111.9
32 Duke 112.4 110.5 111.8 111.6
33 Florida 111.7 109.9 112.3 111.3
34 Wisconsin 112.3 109.7 111.4 111.1
35 S. Carolina 111.6 110.5 111.0 111.0
36 Syracuse 111.6 110.4 110.9 111.0
37 Arizona St. 111.3 110.0 111.2 110.8
38 Texas Tech 111.2 109.9 110.4 110.5
39 Northwestern 110.6 108.9 110.4 110.0
40 Oregon 109.0 108.9 109.6 109.2
41 Boise St. 109.3 108.7 109.1 109.0
42 Virginia Tech 109.7 108.4 108.9 109.0
43 Oklahoma St. 108.9 107.1 108.6 108.2
44 U S C 108.5 106.9 107.7 107.7
45 T C U 108.0 106.6 106.3 106.9
46 California 107.6 105.5 107.6 106.9
47 Virginia 105.9 106.1 105.2 105.7
48 Pittsburgh 105.3 104.8 105.1 105.1
49 Florida St. 105.3 104.3 104.5 104.7
50 Army 104.3 105.0 104.5 104.6
51 Maryland 104.3 102.9 103.4 103.5
52 Ole Miss 103.6 103.1 103.9 103.5
53 Arizona 103.8 102.4 104.1 103.4
54 Vanderbilt 102.9 103.0 103.1 103.0
55 Temple 102.6 102.6 103.3 102.8
56 Kansas St. 103.0 101.6 102.0 102.2
57 Cincinnati 101.2 102.9 101.7 101.9
58 Memphis 101.2 102.6 101.9 101.9
59 Houston 101.4 102.1 101.8 101.8
60 Nebraska 102.2 100.9 101.1 101.4
61 Baylor 101.9 100.2 101.6 101.2
62 Colorado 100.9 101.3 101.4 101.2
63 Wake Forest 102.5 100.4 100.4 101.1
64 BYU 100.3 100.7 100.8 100.6
65 U A B 99.3 102.0 100.3 100.6
66 Ohio U 99.8 101.1 100.7 100.5
67 Buffalo 99.3 101.3 100.5 100.4
68 Toledo 99.2 100.6 99.2 99.7
69 N. Carolina 100.0 99.1 99.6 99.6
70 San Diego St. 99.4 99.4 99.9 99.5
71 N. Texas 98.6 100.9 99.1 99.5
72 Indiana 99.9 98.8 99.7 99.5
73 Appalachian St. 97.7 99.4 99.2 98.7
74 Tennessee 98.5 98.9 98.1 98.5
75 Arkansas 99.7 97.2 98.5 98.5
76 Florida Atlantic 97.0 98.2 97.5 97.6
77 U C L A 98.0 97.5 95.7 97.0
78 Northern Illinois 96.5 97.4 96.7 96.9
79 Air Force 96.1 96.8 96.6 96.5
80 Tulane 96.2 96.8 96.3 96.4
81 Kansas 97.2 95.7 95.5 96.1
82 Minnesota 96.6 95.3 95.9 95.9
83 Marshall 94.2 96.8 95.3 95.5
84 Miami (O) 94.1 95.8 96.3 95.4
85 SMU 95.3 95.0 94.8 95.0
86 Eastern Michigan 94.0 95.4 94.3 94.6
87 Wyoming 94.7 94.8 94.3 94.6
88 Middle Tennessee 93.5 95.3 94.6 94.5
89 Nevada 94.2 94.3 94.4 94.3
90 Louisiana Tech 92.6 94.6 93.6 93.6
91 Troy 91.2 92.5 92.7 92.1
92 Illinois 92.4 91.9 91.3 91.9
93 South Florida 91.3 92.7 90.8 91.6
94 Louisville 91.7 91.2 90.7 91.2
95 Tulsa 91.1 90.6 91.2 91.0
96 Georgia Southern 89.9 91.6 90.5 90.7
97 Akron 89.1 90.2 89.0 89.5
98 Western Michigan 88.5 90.1 89.5 89.4
99 Florida Int’l. 87.6 91.2 88.1 89.0
100 Arkansas St. 87.8 89.3 89.2 88.8
101 Navy 87.4 89.3 86.9 87.9
102 Rutgers 87.5 86.5 86.0 86.7
103 Southern Miss. 84.6 87.7 85.0 85.8
104 UL-Monroe 85.2 85.7 85.8 85.6
105 New Mexico 84.9 86.1 84.6 85.2
106 Colorado St. 84.4 85.1 84.1 84.5
107 Oregon St. 85.5 83.4 84.2 84.4
108 Central Michigan 83.2 85.5 83.6 84.1
109 Louisiana 82.5 84.7 83.9 83.7
110 East Carolina 83.4 83.2 82.9 83.2
111 Liberty 81.8 81.2 82.1 81.7
112 Old Dominion 80.5 83.7 80.1 81.5
113 Massachusetts 80.3 81.9 80.8 81.0
114 Kent St. 80.1 81.2 80.2 80.5
115 W. Kentucky 79.1 81.9 79.5 80.2
116 Charlotte 79.1 81.5 79.9 80.2
117 Ball St. 79.7 81.7 79.1 80.2
118 Hawaii 79.9 81.5 78.8 80.1
119 U N L V 79.7 80.6 79.7 80.0
120 Coastal Carolina 78.8 81.3 79.6 79.9
121 San Jose St. 78.8 79.8 77.5 78.7
122 Bowling Green 77.7 78.1 77.5 77.8
123 Georgia St. 76.6 78.5 76.8 77.3
124 U T S A 74.8 78.7 75.2 76.3
125 South Alabama 75.0 76.8 75.3 75.7
126 Texas State 73.8 76.6 74.1 74.8
127 U T E P 73.0 76.2 72.9 74.0
128 Connecticut 73.8 74.2 72.8 73.6
129 N. Mexico St. 72.0 73.8 71.9 72.6
130 Rice 66.5 69.2 65.2 67.0

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 114.4 114.6 114.7 114.6 5-0 8-0
Temple 102.6 102.6 103.3 102.8 4-1 5-4
Cincinnati 101.2 102.9 101.7 101.9 4-1 8-1
South Florida 91.3 92.7 90.8 91.6 3-2 7-2
East Carolina 83.4 83.2 82.9 83.2 0-5 2-6
Connecticut 73.8 74.2 72.8 73.6 0-5 1-8
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Memphis 101.2 102.6 101.9 101.9 2-3 5-4
Houston 101.4 102.1 101.8 101.8 4-1 7-2
Tulane 96.2 96.8 96.3 96.4 3-2 4-5
SMU 95.3 95.0 94.8 95.0 3-2 4-5
Tulsa 91.1 90.6 91.2 91.0 1-4 2-7
Navy 87.4 89.3 86.9 87.9 1-4 2-7
AAC Averages 94.9 95.5 94.9 95.1
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 139.2 136.9 140.1 138.7 6-0 9-0
Boston College 116.6 114.4 116.4 115.8 4-1 7-2
N. Carolina St. 112.2 111.6 111.9 111.9 2-2 6-2
Syracuse 111.6 110.4 110.9 111.0 4-2 7-2
Florida St. 105.3 104.3 104.5 104.7 2-5 4-5
Wake Forest 102.5 100.4 100.4 101.1 1-4 4-5
Louisville 91.7 91.2 90.7 91.2 0-6 2-7
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Georgia Tech 114.2 113.2 114.0 113.8 3-3 5-4
Miami 112.9 111.2 112.0 112.1 2-3 5-4
Duke 112.4 110.5 111.8 111.6 2-3 6-3
Virginia Tech 109.7 108.4 108.9 109.0 3-2 4-4
Virginia 105.9 106.1 105.2 105.7 4-2 6-3
Pittsburgh 105.3 104.8 105.1 105.1 4-1 5-4
N. Carolina 100.0 99.1 99.6 99.6 1-5 1-7
ACC Averages 110.0 108.8 109.4 109.4
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 123.0 121.8 123.3 122.7 5-1 8-1
West Virginia 115.6 114.6 114.9 115.0 5-1 7-1
Iowa State 114.7 113.3 114.6 114.2 4-2 5-3
Texas 113.1 111.5 112.4 112.3 4-2 6-3
Texas Tech 111.2 109.9 110.4 110.5 3-3 5-4
Oklahoma St. 108.9 107.1 108.6 108.2 2-4 5-4
T C U 108.0 106.6 106.3 106.9 2-4 4-5
Kansas St. 103.0 101.6 102.0 102.2 1-5 3-6
Baylor 101.9 100.2 101.6 101.2 3-3 5-4
Kansas 97.2 95.7 95.5 96.1 1-5 3-6
Big 12 Averages 109.6 108.2 109.0 108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Michigan 130.2 129.0 131.0 130.0 6-0 8-1
Ohio St. 121.7 119.7 121.5 121.0 5-1 8-1
Michigan St. 118.4 116.4 118.1 117.7 5-2 6-3
Penn St. 118.1 115.5 117.9 117.2 3-3 6-3
Maryland 104.3 102.9 103.4 103.5 3-3 5-4
Indiana 99.9 98.8 99.7 99.5 1-5 4-5
Rutgers 87.5 86.5 86.0 86.7 0-6 1-8
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Iowa 116.6 114.8 116.4 115.9 3-3 6-3
Purdue 113.8 112.2 113.6 113.2 4-2 5-4
Wisconsin 112.3 109.7 111.4 111.1 4-2 6-3
Northwestern 110.6 108.9 110.4 110.0 5-1 5-4
Nebraska 102.2 100.9 101.1 101.4 1-5 2-7
Minnesota 96.6 95.3 95.9 95.9 1-5 4-5
Illinois 92.4 91.9 91.3 91.9 2-4 4-5
Big Ten Averages 108.9 107.3 108.4 108.2
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Atlantic 97.0 98.2 97.5 97.6 2-3 4-5
Marshall 94.2 96.8 95.3 95.5 3-2 5-3
Middle Tennessee 93.5 95.3 94.6 94.5 5-1 6-3
Florida Int’l. 87.6 91.2 88.1 89.0 4-1 6-3
Old Dominion 80.5 83.7 80.1 81.5 1-5 2-7
W. Kentucky 79.1 81.9 79.5 80.2 0-5 1-8
Charlotte 79.1 81.5 79.9 80.2 3-2 4-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
U A B 99.3 102.0 100.3 100.6 6-0 8-1
N. Texas 98.6 100.9 99.1 99.5 3-2 7-2
Louisiana Tech 92.6 94.6 93.6 93.6 4-1 6-3
Southern Miss. 84.6 87.7 85.0 85.8 2-3 3-5
U T S A 74.8 78.7 75.2 76.3 2-3 3-6
U T E P 73.0 76.2 72.9 74.0 1-4 1-8
Rice 66.5 69.2 65.2 67.0 0-6 1-9
CUSA Averages 85.7 88.4 86.2 86.8
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 124.2 121.5 123.1 122.9 x 9-0
Army 104.3 105.0 104.5 104.6 x 7-2
BYU 100.3 100.7 100.8 100.6 x 4-5
Liberty 81.8 81.2 82.1 81.7 x 4-4
Massachusetts 80.3 81.9 80.8 81.0 x 4-6
N. Mexico St. 72.0 73.8 71.9 72.6 x 3-7
Indep. Averages 93.8 94.0 93.9 93.9
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Ohio U 99.8 101.1 100.7 100.5 4-1 6-3
Buffalo 99.3 101.3 100.5 100.4 5-0 8-1
Miami (O) 94.1 95.8 96.3 95.4 3-2 3-6
Akron 89.1 90.2 89.0 89.5 2-3 4-4
Kent St. 80.1 81.2 80.2 80.5 1-4 2-7
Bowling Green 77.7 78.1 77.5 77.8 0-5 1-8
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 99.2 100.6 99.2 99.7 3-2 5-4
Northern Illinois 96.5 97.4 96.7 96.9 5-0 6-3
Eastern Michigan 94.0 95.4 94.3 94.6 3-3 5-5
Western Michigan 88.5 90.1 89.5 89.4 4-2 6-4
Central Michigan 83.2 85.5 83.6 84.1 0-6 1-9
Ball St. 79.7 81.7 79.1 80.2 2-4 3-7
MAC Averages 90.1 91.5 90.6 90.7
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Utah St. 111.1 112.5 112.5 112.0 5-0 8-1
Boise St. 109.3 108.7 109.1 109.0 4-1 7-2
Air Force 96.1 96.8 96.6 96.5 1-4 3-6
Wyoming 94.7 94.8 94.3 94.6 2-4 4-6
New Mexico 84.9 86.1 84.6 85.2 1-4 3-6
Colorado St. 84.4 85.1 84.1 84.5 2-3 3-6
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 114.3 113.9 115.0 114.4 5-0 8-1
San Diego St. 99.4 99.4 99.9 99.5 4-1 7-2
Nevada 94.2 94.3 94.4 94.3 3-2 5-4
Hawaii 79.9 81.5 78.8 80.1 3-3 6-5
U N L V 79.7 80.6 79.7 80.0 0-5 2-7
San Jose St. 78.8 79.8 77.5 78.7 1-4 1-8
MWC Averages 93.9 94.5 93.9 94.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 121.0 118.9 121.6 120.5 5-2 7-3
Stanford 114.6 112.3 114.8 113.9 3-3 5-4
Washington St. 113.0 111.8 112.6 112.5 5-1 8-1
Oregon 109.0 108.9 109.6 109.2 3-3 6-3
California 107.6 105.5 107.6 106.9 2-4 5-4
Oregon St. 85.5 83.4 84.2 84.4 1-5 2-7
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 115.7 114.0 116.1 115.3 4-3 6-3
Arizona St. 111.3 110.0 111.2 110.8 3-3 5-4
U S C 108.5 106.9 107.7 107.7 4-3 5-4
Arizona 103.8 102.4 104.1 103.4 4-3 5-5
Colorado 100.9 101.3 101.4 101.2 2-4 5-4
U C L A 98.0 97.5 95.7 97.0 2-4 2-7
Pac-12 Averages 107.4 106.1 107.2 106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 128.9 126.3 130.0 128.4 6-1 8-1
Missouri 119.0 117.5 120.1 118.8 1-4 5-4
Kentucky 114.5 113.2 114.4 114.0 5-2 7-2
Florida 111.7 109.9 112.3 111.3 4-3 6-3
S. Carolina 111.6 110.5 111.0 111.0 4-3 5-3
Vanderbilt 102.9 103.0 103.1 103.0 1-4 4-5
Tennessee 98.5 98.9 98.1 98.5 1-4 4-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 142.0 140.3 143.6 142.0 6-0 9-0
Mississippi St. 120.4 118.5 121.4 120.1 2-3 6-3
L S U 119.1 118.4 120.2 119.2 4-2 7-2
Auburn 115.5 114.3 116.9 115.6 3-3 6-3
Texas A&M 113.9 112.5 114.1 113.5 3-3 5-4
Ole Miss 103.6 103.1 103.9 103.5 1-4 5-4
Arkansas 99.7 97.2 98.5 98.5 0-5 2-7
SEC Averages 114.4 113.1 114.8 114.1
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 97.7 99.4 99.2 98.7 4-1 6-2
Troy 91.2 92.5 92.7 92.1 5-0 7-2
Georgia Southern 89.9 91.6 90.5 90.7 4-1 7-2
Coastal Carolina 78.8 81.3 79.6 79.9 2-3 5-4
Georgia St. 76.6 78.5 76.8 77.3 1-4 2-7
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 87.8 89.3 89.2 88.8 2-3 5-4
UL-Monroe 85.2 85.7 85.8 85.6 3-2 5-4
Louisiana 82.5 84.7 83.9 83.7 2-3 4-5
South Alabama 75.0 76.8 75.3 75.7 1-4 2-7
Texas State 73.8 76.6 74.1 74.8 1-4 3-6
Sun Belt Averages 83.8 85.6 84.7 84.7

 

Ranking of Conferences

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 114.4 113.1 114.8 114.1
2 ACC 110.0 108.8 109.4 109.4
3 B12 109.6 108.2 109.0 108.9
4 BTEN 108.9 107.3 108.4 108.2
5 PAC12 107.4 106.1 107.2 106.9
6 AAC 94.9 95.5 94.9 95.1
7 MWC 93.9 94.5 93.9 94.1
8 IND 93.8 94.0 93.9 93.9
9 MAC 90.1 91.5 90.6 90.7
10 CUSA 85.7 88.4 86.2 86.8
11 SUN 83.8 85.6 84.7 84.7

Top 5 Group of 5

  1. Central Florida
  2. Fresno St.
  3. Utah St.
  4. Cincinnati
  5. UAB

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA Utah St. North Texas
Cure AAC SBC South Florida Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Fresno St. Stanford
Camellia MAC SBC Ohio U Troy
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech Louisiana
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Cincinnati Florida Atlantic
Frisco AAC At-Large Houston [BYU]
Gasparilla AAC CUSA Memphis Marshall
Bahamas MAC CUSA Toledo Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Eastern Michigan Boise St.
Birmingham AAC SEC Tulane Vanderbilt
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 SMU [Army]
Dollar General MAC SBC Northern Illinois Georgia Southern
Hawaii CUSA MWC UAB Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA [California] Middle Tennessee
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Virginia [Buffalo]
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma St. Arizona St.
Independence ACC SEC Miami (Fla.) [Arizona]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Pittsburgh Purdue
Texas Big 12 SEC Baylor Texas A&M
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Boston College Auburn
Camping World ACC Big 12 Syracuse Iowa St.
Arizona MWC SBC San Diego St. UL-Monroe
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Texas Utah
Belk ACC SEC Duke South Carolina
Peach At-large At-large Central Florida Kentucky
Military AAC ACC Temple Virginia Tech
Sun ACC Pac-12 Georgia Tech USC
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Wisconsin Oregon
Liberty Big 12 SEC Texas Tech Mississippi St.
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Penn St. Washington
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Northwestern Missouri
Outback Big Ten SEC Michigan St. LSU
Fiesta At-large At-large North Carolina St. West Virginia
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Iowa Florida
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. Washington St.
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma Georgia
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton Alabama Michigan
Orange Clemson Notre Dame
Championship Game Alabama Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Our Predictions on the Selection Committee Top 4

  1. Alabama
  2. Clemson
  3. Notre Dame
  4. Michigan

 

Looking Like Many More Bowl Eligible Teams Than Bowls This Year

In recent seasons, teams with 5-7 or 6-7 records qualified for bowl games because there were not enough teams to fill all the bowls.  Thanks to the Poinsettia Bowl folding, this losing record bowl team issue ceased last year.

This year, it looks like the Poinsettia and other bowls could have been created with more than enough bowl eligible teams for as many as 42 bowls.

As we look at the field heading into week 11, we believe that as many as 84 teams will reach bowl eligibility, and there is room for just 78.  When this happens, it hurts the Group of 5 conferences, and that is what we are expecting this year.

Here’s a look at some possible scenarios by each conference.

American Athletic

The AAC has tie-ins with seven bowls, but after this past weekend’s events with Houston and South Florida losing, the path now looks clear for Central Florida to run the table and for the second consecutive year, winning the precious New Year’s 6 Bowl bid.  That would create an eighth spot for the league, and we forecast eight teams to be bowl eligible.

Tulane and SMU now look like legitimate threats to get to 6-6 after the Green Wave blew USF to sea, and the Mustangs ended Houston’s hopes to make the Fiesta or Peach Bowl.

 

Atlantic Coast

Let’s include Notre Dame in this grouping, since the Fighting Irish are eligible for the ACC bowls.  What this means is that two teams from this group should make the NCAA Playoffs, with Clemson joining Notre Dame.

North Carolina State is 6-2 with four very winnable games remaining on their schedule.  Since the Wolf Pack will not be in the ACC Championship Game, and East Carolina will not be in the AAC Championship Game, their contingency late-scheduled game for December will take place, giving NC St. a great shot at 10-2 and possibly a NY6 Bowl.

Counting Notre Dame, we forecast 11 ACC teams to become bowl eligible, and with three going to either the playoffs or NY6, there will be eight remaining bowl eligible teams for eight remaining bowl bids.

 

Big 12

We believe that Oklahoma and West Virginia will face each other in back-to-back weeks, the first game in Morgantown, and the second in the Big 12 Championship Game.  We also believe there is a strong chance these two teams will split these games, and thus no Big 12 team will earn a spot in the Playoffs.

That throws the Big 12 Champion into the Sugar Bowl, while the runner-up is likely headed to the Fiesta Bowl.  That takes care of two bowl eligible teams.  We forecast seven Big 12 teams to make bowl eligibility, so there will be five additional teams but there will be six remaining bowls.  This will leave the Armed Forces Bowl without a Big 12 opponent.  This is fine, because there will be a perfect at-large team for this bowl.

 

Big Ten

This has become a quite interesting race, if only in the competitive West Division.  In the East, the winner of the Ohio State-Michigan game will be in line for the Playoffs if they can win the Big Ten Championship Game the next week.  That is, of course, it Ohio State can win at Michigan State this week, and that will be a tough task.

We forecast Michigan to win out and make the Playoffs, with Ohio State getting the Rose Bowl bid (even if they lose to the Spartans and finish 9-3).  The rest of the bowl order in this league will be almost cut and dry, because the Big Ten has rules not to send repeat teams to bowls when there are other options.  The repeat extends out to four years.

We forecast the Big Ten to have just eight bowl eligible teams due to tough closing schedules for the four remaining teams in competition for six wins.  Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, and Minnesota look like seven loss teams as of this week.

Thus, the league will come up two teams short in supplying bowl eligible schools, and the Quick Lane and Heart of Dallas Bowl (First Responder Bowl) will not have Big Ten teams this year.

Conference USA

Last year, CUSA had 10 bowl eligible teams, and nine of them earned bowl bids.  UTSA missed out.  This year, it looks like seven teams will get to six wins, and the league has seven bowl bids.  The champion  gets to choose its bowl destination from any of the league tie-ins.  It’s a good bet the champion will choose either the Hawaii or Bahamas Bowl.

Independents

Not counting Notre Dame, three other teams should become bowl eligible.  However, one of those teams is Liberty, and the Flames will not be eligible for a bowl game unless they are not enough bowl eligible teams.  As we mentioned already, there will be a glut and not a dearth this year.

Army is on mark for a 10-2 record, and the aforementioned Armed Forces Bowl would be the ideal location for the Black Knights, even though they played in this bowl last year.  Still, it’s the Armed Forces Bowl!

BYU may only finish 6-6, and the Cougars may be weaker than a half-dozen other bowl eligible schools that do not receive bowl bids.  However, they have a guarantee with ESPN to be placed in a bowl game if they are 6-6.  Thus, they will beat out a team that might be 8-4.  The Frisco Bowl has only one conference tie-in this year, and this is an ESPN-sponsored bowl, so it would be the logical place to send the Cougars.

Mid-American

This is a league almost assured of having more bowl eligible teams than bowl spots, even if the league gets an extra bowl game as the alternate for the Quick Lane Bowl.  In the East, Ohio U and Buffalo are already bowl eligible.  Northern Illinois and Western Michigan are bowl eligible out of the West, and Toledo and Eastern Michigan will soon join them to make it six bowl eligible teams for five bowl games.  Buffalo and Western Michigan were bowl eligible and left out last year, and it would be terrible for one of these two schools to get left out again.  Buffalo could be 10-2 or 11-2 and not the MAC Champion, so it figures that the Bulls have to get a bowl this year, or else they might consider looking elsewhere for a league.

Mountain West

This could be the most unlucky conference of all, where a team with eight wins does not earn a bid.  If a couple of Power 5 conference teams lingering at .500 or just below get to 6-6, and there are many in the running, they will steal bowl spots from the MWC.

We forecast seven MWC teams to make bowl eligibility, which means we believe Wyoming will win their final two games.  Because their last game will be at New Mexico, we think that will keep the Cowboys out of the running for the New Mexico Bowl, and that will keep them out of the bowls altogether.

Nevada is in line to be 8-4 and not make a bowl game if there are enough Power 5 league teams to gobble up all the at-large bids after Army and BYU get their bowl bids.  The Wolfpack are clearly better than Hawaii, but the Rainbows will clinch their hometown bid with a win over lowly UNLV on November 17.

Pac-12

This is the most interesting conference of all this year due to parity.  With three weeks remaining in the conference race, 10 of the 12 teams can still earn the Rose Bowl bid!  There could even be a six-way tie for first place in the six-team South Division!  As the late Dick Enberg would have no doubt said, “Oh my!”

Being a bit more realistic, even when this league tends to shy away from realism, let’s for now say that Washington State continues to win and finish the regular season at 11-1.  The Cougars would then advance to the Pac-12 Championship Game and be a healthy favorite to win and earn the Rose Bowl bid, assuming that they cannot slip into the Playoffs.

In the West, Utah still has a slim advantage over the remaining teams for the division flag, and because it would take another 5,000 words to explain all the possible scenarios, we will forecast the Utes to win the South.

Still, that is going to most likely leave this league with nine bowl eligible teams for seven bowl bids.  The last two in the priority list will likely be California and Arizona, two teams that would no doubt be number one and number two in the at-large pool.

Southeastern

Our forecast for the top league has been undergoing weekly changes, as we forecast 10 bowl eligible teams one week and 11 the next.  This is an 11-team forecast week, as team number 11 is Vanderbilt.  The Commodores are 4-5.  A loss at Missouri this week and then wins at home over Ole Miss and Tennessee would put Vandy at 6-6.  Tennessee is also 4-5, and should the Vols upset Kentucky or Missouri, the season-ending rivalry game in Nashville between the Vols and Commodores could be for the last bowl bid.  If one of these two Volunteer State rivals gets to 6-6, it makes live very bad for Nevada and a team from the MAC.

Sun Belt

This is another league likely to have a glut of bowl eligible teams for their contracted bowl tie-ins.

Troy, Appalachian State, and Georgia Southern are already bowl eligible.  Coastal Carolina, Arkansas State, and Louisiana-Monroe need one more win each to get to bowl eligibility, and they should all make it.  Louisiana needs two more wins, and we believe the Ragin’ Cajuns will get those two wins.  This adds up to seven bowl eligible teams for five bowl bids.  Coastal Carolina and one other team will be jilted.  While it should be Louisiana, the boys from Lafayette will get the New Orleans Bowl bid with six wins, as they have many times before.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

October 15, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 7, October 18-22, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Arizona Denver 1.4 0.8 1.7 40
L.A. Chargers [London] Tennessee 5.5 6.3 6.6 42.5
Indianapolis Buffalo 4.3 2.9 4.3 40.5
Philadelphia Carolina 2.7 3.4 2.3 45.5
Kansas City Cincinnati 9.9 9.8 10.3 50
Tampa Bay Cleveland 2.8 2.4 2.8 47.5
Miami Detroit -1.0 -1.6 -1.1 48.5
Jacksonville Houston 5.2 5.2 5.7 44
N.Y. Jets Minnesota -0.4 -1.0 -0.2 45.5
Chicago New England 0.0 -1.0 0.3 44
Baltimore New Orleans -0.1 0.5 0.0 47.5
Washington Dallas 1.3 0.6 2.2 42.5
San Francisco L.A. Rams -10.4 -10.8 -10.7 50.5
Atlanta N.Y. Giants 8.3 8.2 8.1 47

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 105.0 105.4 105.1 105.2 22.5 4-2
N. Y. Jets 98.5 98.2 98.7 98.5 24 3-3
Miami 97.2 96.8 97.3 97.1 22 4-2
Buffalo 93.8 93.8 93.5 93.7 15.5 2-4
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 105.6 105.7 105.3 105.5 23 3-2-1
Baltimore 104.7 105.3 105.0 105.0 21 4-2
Cincinnati 99.9 100.3 99.9 100.0 23 4-2
Cleveland 95.0 95.3 95.7 95.3 23 2-3-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 101.1 101.0 101.3 101.1 20 3-3
Houston 98.4 98.3 98.1 98.2 24 3-3
Tennessee 96.9 96.9 96.2 96.7 19 3-3
Indianapolis 95.6 94.2 95.3 95.0 25 1-5
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 106.8 107.2 107.2 107.1 27 5-1
LA Chargers 102.4 103.2 102.8 102.8 23.5 4-2
Denver 97.4 97.1 96.8 97.1 21.5 2-4
Oakland 93.1 93.3 92.9 93.1 21 1-5
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 102.0 102.1 101.7 101.9 22.5 3-3
Dallas 100.5 100.4 99.9 100.3 20 3-3
Washington 99.3 98.5 99.6 99.1 22.5 3-2
N.Y. Giants 95.5 95.3 95.4 95.4 21.5 1-5
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Chicago 102.4 102.0 102.9 102.4 21.5 3-2
Minnesota 102.0 102.2 101.9 102.0 21.5 3-2-1
Detroit 100.7 100.9 100.9 100.8 26.5 2-3
Green Bay 99.4 100.1 99.0 99.5 24.5 3-2-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 107.8 107.8 108.0 107.9 26.5 4-1
Carolina 101.9 101.2 101.8 101.6 23 3-2
Atlanta 101.3 101.1 101.0 101.1 25.5 2-4
Tampa Bay 95.3 95.2 96.0 95.5 24.5 2-3
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 108.1 108.9 108.4 108.5 26.5 6-0
Seattle 102.1 102.0 102.4 102.2 22.5 3-3
Arizona 95.8 95.0 95.5 95.4 18.5 1-5
San Francisco 94.7 95.1 94.7 94.8 24 1-5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Kansas City
2 New England
3 Baltimore
4 Houston
5 L.A. Chargers
6 Pittsburgh

 

NFC Seeding
1 L.A. Rams
2 New Orleans
3 Philadelphia
4 Chicago
5 Carolina
6 Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round
Baltimore over Pittsburgh
L.A. Chargers over Houston
Philadelphia over Minnesota
Carolina over Chicago

 

Divisional Round
L.A. Chargers over Kansas City
Baltimore over New England
L.A. Rams over Carolina
Philadelphia over New Orleans

 

Conference Championship
Baltimore over L.A. Chargers
L.A. Rams over Philadelphia

 

Super Bowl 53
L.A. Rams over Baltimore

 

 

 

October 14, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 8

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Thursday October 18
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Arizona St. Stanford -4.2 -2.8 -4.6
Arkansas St. Georgia St. 10.0 9.2 10.6

 

Friday October 19
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Boise St. Colorado St. 28.2 26.5 28.4
UNLV Air Force -9.6 -8.8 -9.4

 

Saturday October 20
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Temple Cincinnati 6.7 5.1 7.0
Arkansas Tulsa 12.3 10.7 10.6
Navy Houston -8.6 -7.0 -9.4
Tulane SMU 5.0 5.8 5.7
Missouri Memphis 15.5 12.1 15.5
East Carolina Central Florida -29.1 -29.6 -30.0
South Florida Connecticut 27.9 29.6 29.4
Syracuse North Carolina 13.5 13.0 13.3
Duke Virginia 12.6 10.1 12.9
Clemson North Carolina St. 22.4 20.3 23.0
Florida St. Wake Forest 6.7 8.3 8.6
TCU Oklahoma -4.6 -4.3 -6.3
Texas Tech Kansas 13.3 13.4 13.9
Michigan St. Michigan -6.2 -7.0 -7.1
Wisconsin Illinois 26.9 24.6 27.3
Iowa Maryland 13.7 13.1 14.2
Rutgers Northwestern -23.4 -22.7 -25.4
Indiana Penn St. -20.4 -18.7 -21.2
Nebraska Minnesota -2.8 -3.4 -4.5
Purdue Ohio St. -14.2 -13.6 -14.7
Marshall Florida Atlantic -0.6 1.4 -0.2
Middle Tenneesee Charlotte 17.3 16.3 18.3
Louisiana Tech UTEP 25.8 25.2 27.9
Southern Miss. UTSA 9.8 8.5 9.7
Florida Int’l. Rice 26.4 27.8 29.1
UAB North Texas -2.2 -2.2 -2.6
Western Kentucky Old Dominion 1.1 0.8 2.6
Army Miami (O) 15.1 14.2 13.0
Massachusetts Coastal Carolina 10.2 9.6 10.7
New Mexico St. Georgia Southern -13.3 -13.1 -13.7
Toledo Buffalo 2.5 1.4 1.1
Ohio U Bowling Green 14.6 15.5 14.8
Ball St. Eastern Michigan -6.8 -5.7 -7.4
Central Michigan Western Michigan -4.8 -4.0 -5.4
Kent St. Akron -10.3 -10.6 -11.0
Wyoming Utah St. -10.6 -12.1 -12.7
New Mexico Fresno St. -19.5 -16.9 -19.7
San Diego St. San Jose St. 30.5 30.0 33.1
Hawaii Nevada -5.9 -3.8 -6.7
Washington Colorado 22.3 19.3 22.8
Oregon St. California -13.9 -13.8 -15.1
Washington St. Oregon -1.1 -2.0 -2.7
Utah USC 9.2 8.9 10.6
UCLA Arizona 1.9 3.5 -0.6
Ole Miss Auburn -7.9 -7.0 -9.2
Tennessee Alabama -38.1 -35.6 -40.2
LSU Mississippi St. 1.6 4.0 2.2
Kentucky Vanderbilt 17.3 15.9 17.3
Appalachian St. Louisiana 22.0 21.7 22.7
Louisina-Monroe Texas St. 13.6 10.9 14.2

 

FBS FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
Liberty Idaho St. 4.8

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 140.2 138.2 141.8 140.1
2 Clemson 133.9 131.3 134.4 133.2
3 Georgia 127.8 124.7 128.6 127.0
4 Ohio St. 127.5 125.5 127.8 126.9
5 Michigan 125.5 124.2 125.9 125.2
6 Notre Dame 124.5 121.7 123.5 123.2
7 Washington 123.4 121.4 124.7 123.1
8 Penn St. 122.3 119.6 122.6 121.5
9 Oklahoma 119.7 118.3 120.0 119.3
10 Mississippi St. 119.9 117.4 120.6 119.3
11 L S U 118.6 118.4 119.8 118.9
12 Michigan St. 117.7 115.6 117.2 116.9
13 Utah 116.0 114.3 116.9 115.8
14 Miami 115.9 114.5 115.4 115.3
15 Iowa 116.0 114.0 115.7 115.2
16 Auburn 114.7 113.4 116.3 114.8
17 Wisconsin 115.8 113.1 115.2 114.7
18 Central Florida 114.5 114.7 114.8 114.7
19 Duke 115.3 113.2 114.9 114.5
20 Kentucky 114.9 113.8 114.8 114.5
21 Missouri 114.7 113.0 115.7 114.4
22 Florida 114.6 113.0 115.5 114.3
23 N. Carolina St. 114.5 113.9 114.4 114.3
24 Stanford 115.1 112.4 115.1 114.2
25 Oregon 113.7 113.6 114.6 114.0
26 Texas A&M 114.2 112.9 114.4 113.8
27 Boston College 114.4 111.8 113.8 113.4
28 Texas 113.5 112.1 113.0 112.8
29 Iowa State 112.8 111.2 112.6 112.2
30 Virginia Tech 112.2 111.2 111.8 111.7
31 West Virginia 112.4 111.4 111.5 111.7
32 S. Carolina 112.2 111.0 111.8 111.7
33 T C U 112.1 111.0 110.7 111.2
34 Georgia Tech 111.2 110.1 110.8 110.7
35 Fresno St. 110.9 109.9 111.2 110.7
36 Northwestern 110.7 109.0 110.6 110.1
37 Purdue 110.3 108.9 110.1 109.8
38 Boise St. 109.7 109.0 109.8 109.5
39 U S C 109.8 108.4 109.3 109.2
40 Syracuse 109.9 108.5 109.1 109.2
41 Washington St. 109.6 108.6 108.9 109.0
42 Utah St. 107.8 109.2 109.3 108.8
43 Texas Tech 109.5 108.2 108.4 108.7
44 Oklahoma St. 109.4 107.5 109.1 108.6
45 Arizona St. 107.9 106.6 107.5 107.3
46 Florida St. 107.4 106.8 107.1 107.1
47 Army 104.9 105.6 105.1 105.2
48 Virginia 105.2 105.7 104.5 105.1
49 Colorado 104.0 105.1 104.9 104.7
50 Maryland 105.3 104.0 104.5 104.6
51 Ole Miss 103.8 103.4 104.1 103.7
52 Kansas St. 104.3 102.9 103.4 103.5
53 Houston 103.0 103.7 103.4 103.4
54 Minnesota 103.7 102.8 103.6 103.4
55 Memphis 102.2 103.9 103.2 103.1
56 California 103.8 101.3 103.2 102.8
57 San Diego St. 102.4 102.6 103.2 102.7
58 Temple 102.4 102.4 103.1 102.6
59 Baylor 103.0 101.2 102.7 102.3
60 Wake Forest 103.8 101.4 101.5 102.2
61 Appalachian St. 100.8 102.6 102.5 101.9
62 N. Texas 99.9 102.4 100.9 101.0
63 Pittsburgh 101.4 100.7 100.8 101.0
64 Vanderbilt 100.5 100.8 100.5 100.6
65 BYU 100.1 100.6 100.7 100.4
66 Arizona 100.6 98.8 100.7 100.0
67 Arkansas 100.3 97.8 99.2 99.1
68 Tennessee 99.2 99.6 98.5 99.1
69 South Florida 98.4 100.4 98.5 99.1
70 N. Carolina 99.4 98.4 98.8 98.9
71 Cincinnati 98.2 99.8 98.6 98.8
72 Buffalo 97.7 99.8 98.8 98.8
73 U C L A 99.5 99.3 97.1 98.6
74 Indiana 98.9 97.9 98.4 98.4
75 Kansas 99.2 97.8 97.5 98.2
76 Florida Atlantic 97.2 97.9 97.8 97.6
77 Toledo 97.1 98.2 96.9 97.4
78 Nebraska 97.9 96.4 96.1 96.8
79 Louisiana Tech 94.6 97.1 96.1 95.9
80 U A B 94.6 97.1 95.3 95.7
81 Air Force 95.3 95.9 95.4 95.5
82 Northern Illinois 94.9 95.6 94.7 95.1
83 Louisville 95.2 95.2 94.4 94.9
84 Marshall 93.6 96.3 94.5 94.8
85 Tulane 94.4 94.8 94.2 94.5
86 Miami (O) 92.8 94.5 95.1 94.1
87 Eastern Michigan 93.5 94.8 94.0 94.1
88 Wyoming 94.3 94.1 93.6 94.0
89 Ohio U 92.7 93.9 93.2 93.3
90 Middle Tennessee 91.8 93.2 93.0 92.7
91 Western Michigan 91.8 93.4 92.7 92.7
92 Navy 91.4 93.6 91.0 92.0
93 Nevada 92.1 91.9 92.0 92.0
94 Troy 90.6 91.9 91.9 91.5
95 SMU 92.0 91.4 91.0 91.5
96 Akron 90.8 92.1 91.2 91.4
97 Florida Int’l. 89.6 93.6 90.4 91.2
98 Illinois 91.4 91.0 90.4 90.9
99 Tulsa 91.0 90.2 91.5 90.9
100 Georgia Southern 88.9 90.6 89.5 89.7
101 New Mexico 88.4 90.0 88.5 89.0
102 Arkansas St. 86.7 88.0 88.1 87.6
103 Central Michigan 85.0 87.4 85.3 85.9
104 Southern Miss. 84.4 87.4 85.0 85.6
105 Oregon St. 86.9 84.5 85.1 85.5
106 Ball St. 84.2 86.6 84.1 85.0
107 Colorado St. 84.5 85.4 84.4 84.8
108 Massachusetts 83.4 85.3 84.3 84.3
109 U N L V 83.2 84.6 83.5 83.8
110 Rutgers 84.8 83.7 82.8 83.8
111 Old Dominion 82.0 85.4 81.5 83.0
112 Louisiana 81.7 83.9 82.8 82.8
113 East Carolina 82.9 82.6 82.3 82.6
114 UL-Monroe 82.3 82.5 82.8 82.6
115 Hawaii 82.2 84.1 81.3 82.5
116 W. Kentucky 80.7 83.7 81.6 82.0
117 Liberty 81.3 80.5 81.5 81.1
118 Bowling Green 80.6 80.9 80.8 80.8
119 Georgia St. 79.2 81.2 80.0 80.1
120 U T S A 77.2 81.4 77.8 78.8
121 Kent St. 78.0 79.1 77.7 78.3
122 Charlotte 77.0 79.4 77.2 77.9
123 South Alabama 76.4 78.3 77.0 77.2
124 Coastal Carolina 75.7 78.2 76.1 76.7
125 San Jose St. 74.9 75.6 73.1 74.5
126 N. Mexico St. 73.1 75.0 73.3 73.8
127 Connecticut 73.5 73.8 72.1 73.1
128 Texas State 71.3 74.2 71.1 72.2
129 U T E P 71.3 74.4 70.7 72.1
130 Rice 66.2 68.7 64.3 66.4

 

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 114.5 114.7 114.8 114.7 3-0 6-0
Temple 102.4 102.4 103.1 102.6 3-0 4-3
South Florida 98.4 100.4 98.5 99.1 2-0 6-0
Cincinnati 98.2 99.8 98.6 98.8 2-0 6-0
East Carolina 82.9 82.6 82.3 82.6 0-3 2-4
Connecticut 73.5 73.8 72.1 73.1 0-3 1-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Houston 103.0 103.7 103.4 103.4 2-0 5-1
Memphis 102.2 103.9 103.2 103.1 1-3 4-3
Tulane 94.4 94.8 94.2 94.5 1-1 2-4
Navy 91.4 93.6 91.0 92.0 1-2 2-4
SMU 92.0 91.4 91.0 91.5 1-1 2-4
Tulsa 91.0 90.2 91.5 90.9 0-3 1-5
AAC Averages 95.3 95.9 95.3 95.5
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 133.9 131.3 134.4 133.2 3-0 6-0
N. Carolina St. 114.5 113.9 114.4 114.3 1-0 5-0
Boston College 114.4 111.8 113.8 113.4 2-1 5-2
Syracuse 109.9 108.5 109.1 109.2 1-2 4-2
Florida St. 107.4 106.8 107.1 107.1 1-3 3-3
Wake Forest 103.8 101.4 101.5 102.2 0-2 3-3
Louisville 95.2 95.2 94.4 94.9 0-4 2-5
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami 115.9 114.5 115.4 115.3 2-1 5-2
Duke 115.3 113.2 114.9 114.5 1-1 5-1
Virginia Tech 112.2 111.2 111.8 111.7 3-0 4-2
Georgia Tech 111.2 110.1 110.8 110.7 1-3 3-4
Virginia 105.2 105.7 104.5 105.1 2-1 4-2
Pittsburgh 101.4 100.7 100.8 101.0 2-1 3-4
N. Carolina 99.4 98.4 98.8 98.9 1-2 1-4
ACC Averages 110.0 108.8 109.4 109.4
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 119.7 118.3 120.0 119.3 2-1 5-1
Texas 113.5 112.1 113.0 112.8 4-0 6-1
Iowa State 112.8 111.2 112.6 112.2 2-2 3-3
West Virginia 112.4 111.4 111.5 111.7 3-1 5-1
T C U 112.1 111.0 110.7 111.2 1-2 3-3
Texas Tech 109.5 108.2 108.4 108.7 2-1 4-2
Oklahoma St. 109.4 107.5 109.1 108.6 1-3 4-3
Kansas St. 104.3 102.9 103.4 103.5 1-3 3-4
Baylor 103.0 101.2 102.7 102.3 2-2 4-3
Kansas 99.2 97.8 97.5 98.2 0-3 2-4
Big 12 Averages 109.6 108.2 108.9 108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Ohio St. 127.5 125.5 127.8 126.9 4-0 7-0
Michigan 125.5 124.2 125.9 125.2 4-0 6-1
Penn St. 122.3 119.6 122.6 121.5 1-2 4-2
Michigan St. 117.7 115.6 117.2 116.9 3-1 4-2
Maryland 105.3 104.0 104.5 104.6 2-1 4-2
Indiana 98.9 97.9 98.4 98.4 1-3 4-3
Rutgers 84.8 83.7 82.8 83.8 0-4 1-6
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Iowa 116.0 114.0 115.7 115.2 2-1 5-1
Wisconsin 115.8 113.1 115.2 114.7 2-1 4-2
Northwestern 110.7 109.0 110.6 110.1 3-1 3-3
Purdue 110.3 108.9 110.1 109.8 2-1 3-3
Minnesota 103.7 102.8 103.6 103.4 0-3 3-3
Nebraska 97.9 96.4 96.1 96.8 0-4 0-6
Illinois 91.4 91.0 90.4 90.9 1-2 3-3
Big Ten Averages 109.1 107.6 108.6 108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Atlantic 97.2 97.9 97.8 97.6 1-1 3-3
Marshall 93.6 96.3 94.5 94.8 2-1 4-2
Middle Tennessee 91.8 93.2 93.0 92.7 2-1 3-3
Florida Int’l. 89.6 93.6 90.4 91.2 2-0 4-2
Old Dominion 82.0 85.4 81.5 83.0 0-4 1-6
W. Kentucky 80.7 83.7 81.6 82.0 0-2 1-5
Charlotte 77.0 79.4 77.2 77.9 2-1 3-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
N. Texas 99.9 102.4 100.9 101.0 2-1 6-1
Louisiana Tech 94.6 97.1 96.1 95.9 2-1 4-2
U A B 94.6 97.1 95.3 95.7 3-0 5-1
Southern Miss. 84.4 87.4 85.0 85.6 1-1 2-3
U T S A 77.2 81.4 77.8 78.8 2-1 3-4
U T E P 71.3 74.4 70.7 72.1 0-2 0-6
Rice 66.2 68.7 64.3 66.4 0-3 1-6
CUSA Averages 85.7 88.4 86.2 86.8
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 124.5 121.7 123.5 123.2 x 7-0
Army 104.9 105.6 105.1 105.2 x 4-2
BYU 100.1 100.6 100.7 100.4 x 4-3
Massachusetts 83.4 85.3 84.3 84.3 x 2-5
Liberty 81.3 80.5 81.5 81.1 x 3-3
N. Mexico St. 73.1 75.0 73.3 73.8 x 2-5
Indep. Averages 94.5 94.8 94.7 94.7
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Buffalo 97.7 99.8 98.8 98.8 3-0 6-1
Miami (O) 92.8 94.5 95.1 94.1 3-1 3-4
Ohio U 92.7 93.9 93.2 93.3 1-1 3-3
Akron 90.8 92.1 91.2 91.4 0-2 2-3
Bowling Green 80.6 80.9 80.8 80.8 0-3 1-6
Kent St. 78.0 79.1 77.7 78.3 0-3 1-6
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 97.1 98.2 96.9 97.4 1-1 3-3
Northern Illinois 94.9 95.6 94.7 95.1 4-0 4-3
Eastern Michigan 93.5 94.8 94.0 94.1 1-3 3-4
Western Michigan 91.8 93.4 92.7 92.7 3-0 5-2
Central Michigan 85.0 87.4 85.3 85.9 0-3 1-6
Ball St. 84.2 86.6 84.1 85.0 2-1 3-4
MAC Averages 89.9 91.3 90.4 90.6
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Boise St. 109.7 109.0 109.8 109.5 2-1 4-2
Utah St. 107.8 109.2 109.3 108.8 2-0 5-1
Air Force 95.3 95.9 95.4 95.5 0-3 2-4
Wyoming 94.3 94.1 93.6 94.0 0-3 2-5
New Mexico 88.4 90.0 88.5 89.0 1-1 3-3
Colorado St. 84.5 85.4 84.4 84.8 2-1 3-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 110.9 109.9 111.2 110.7 2-0 5-1
San Diego St. 102.4 102.6 103.2 102.7 2-0 5-1
Nevada 92.1 91.9 92.0 92.0 1-2 3-4
U N L V 83.2 84.6 83.5 83.8 0-2 2-4
Hawaii 82.2 84.1 81.3 82.5 3-1 6-2
San Jose St. 74.9 75.6 73.1 74.5 0-3 0-6
MWC Averages 93.8 94.4 93.8 94.0
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 123.4 121.4 124.7 123.1 3-1 5-2
Stanford 115.1 112.4 115.1 114.2 2-1 4-2
Oregon 113.7 113.6 114.6 114.0 2-1 5-1
Washington St. 109.6 108.6 108.9 109.0 2-1 5-1
California 103.8 101.3 103.2 102.8 0-3 3-3
Oregon St. 86.9 84.5 85.1 85.5 0-3 1-5
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 116.0 114.3 116.9 115.8 2-2 4-2
U S C 109.8 108.4 109.3 109.2 3-1 4-2
Arizona St. 107.9 106.6 107.5 107.3 1-2 3-3
Colorado 104.0 105.1 104.9 104.7 2-1 5-1
Arizona 100.6 98.8 100.7 100.0 2-2 3-4
U C L A 99.5 99.3 97.1 98.6 1-2 1-5
Pac-12 Averages 107.5 106.2 107.3 107.0
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 127.8 124.7 128.6 127.0 4-1 6-1
Kentucky 114.9 113.8 114.8 114.5 3-1 5-1
Missouri 114.7 113.0 115.7 114.4 0-3 3-3
Florida 114.6 113.0 115.5 114.3 4-1 6-1
S. Carolina 112.2 111.0 111.8 111.7 2-3 3-3
Vanderbilt 100.5 100.8 100.5 100.6 0-3 3-4
Tennessee 99.2 99.6 98.5 99.1 1-2 3-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 140.2 138.2 141.8 140.1 4-0 7-0
Mississippi St. 119.9 117.4 120.6 119.3 1-2 4-2
L S U 118.6 118.4 119.8 118.9 3-1 6-1
Auburn 114.7 113.4 116.3 114.8 1-3 4-3
Texas A&M 114.2 112.9 114.4 113.8 3-1 5-2
Ole Miss 103.8 103.4 104.1 103.7 1-2 5-2
Arkansas 100.3 97.8 99.2 99.1 0-4 1-6
SEC Averages 114.0 112.7 114.4 113.7
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 100.8 102.6 102.5 101.9 2-0 4-1
Troy 90.6 91.9 91.9 91.5 3-1 5-2
Georgia Southern 88.9 90.6 89.5 89.7 3-0 5-1
Georgia St. 79.2 81.2 80.0 80.1 1-1 2-4
Coastal Carolina 75.7 78.2 76.1 76.7 1-2 3-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 86.7 88.0 88.1 87.6 0-2 3-3
Louisiana 81.7 83.9 82.8 82.8 2-1 3-3
UL-Monroe 82.3 82.5 82.8 82.6 1-2 3-4
South Alabama 76.4 78.3 77.0 77.2 2-2 2-5
Texas State 71.3 74.2 71.1 72.2 0-3 1-5
Sun Belt Averages 83.4 85.1 84.2 84.2

 

The Conferences Rated

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 114.0 112.7 114.4 113.7
2 ACC 110.0 108.8 109.4 109.4
3 B12 109.6 108.2 108.9 108.9
4 BTEN 109.1 107.6 108.6 108.4
5 P-12 107.5 106.2 107.3 107.0
6 AAC 95.3 95.9 95.3 95.5
7 IND 94.5 94.8 94.7 94.7
8 MWC 93.8 94.4 93.8 94.0
9 MAC 89.9 91.3 90.4 90.6
10 CUSA 85.7 88.4 86.2 86.8
11 SUN 83.4 85.1 84.2 84.2

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Note: We revised these early Monday morning.  Multiple sites have listed different bowl tie-ins.  We visited each bowl’s home page to verify the correct alignments and made the appropriate changes.

Additionally, our bowl projections differ from most others because we make assumptions on future games.  For instance, all other major bowl projections have Ohio State in the Playoff today.  We believe the Buckeyes are going to lose a game before the end of the regular season and fall to 5th or 6th in the final poll.  Central Florida is listed as the top Group of 5 team and placed in a New Year’s 6 Bowl, but we believe they will lose and fall behind others.  Currently, we forecast Fresno State to end up in this spot.

Here are the revised bowl & playoff projections.

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA Utah St. North Texas
Cure AAC SBC Central Florida Georgia Southern
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 San Diego St. Utah
Camellia MAC SBC Western Michigan Appalachian St.
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech Louisiana-Monroe
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Tulane Florida Atlantic
Frisco AAC At-Large Cincinnati [BYU]
Gasparilla AAC CUSA South Florida Marshall
Bahamas MAC CUSA Buffalo Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Eastern Michigan Boise St.
Birmingham AAC SEC Memphis [Southern Miss.]
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 Houston [Army]
Dollar General MAC SBC Northern Illinois Troy
Hawaii CUSA MWC UAB Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA Minnesota Middle Tennessee
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten [Toledo] Michigan St.
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Texas Tech Arizona St.
Independence ACC SEC Virginia [Louisiana]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Syracuse Maryland
Texas Big 12 SEC Baylor Texas A&M
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Wisconsin Mississippi St.
Camping World ACC Big 12 Virginia Tech Iowa St.
Arizona MWC SBC Nevada Arkansas St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 West Virginia Washington
Belk ACC SEC Duke South Carolina
Peach At-large At-large Florida North Carolina St.
Military AAC ACC Temple [Colorado]
Sun ACC Pac-12 Boston College Stanford
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Northwestern USC
Liberty Big 12 SEC TCU Auburn
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Purdue Oregon
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Miami (Fla.) Missouri
Outback Big Ten SEC Penn St. LSU
Fiesta At-large At-large Michigan Fresno St.
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Iowa Kentucky
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. Washington St.
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma Georgia
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton Clemson Notre Dame
Orange Alabama Texas
Championship Game Alabama Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

There Is Really Only One Team That Can Beat Alabama

The Alabama Crimson Tide currently sits almost one touchdown ahead of the number two Clemson Tigers, but can this Clemson team defeat Alabama?  The answer to that question is probably not, with a qualification.  If Tua Tagovailoa’s knee injury issues were to force him to miss games, then maybe Clemson or Ohio State could make a close game of it.  However, when Tua is healthy, there is only one team that can beat the top-ranked Tide.  That team is: Alabama.

Unless Alabama has a total meltdown, the Tide should win every game by double digits.  Let’s take a look at the moment at Alabama through seven games compared to some great teams from the PiRate Ratings era (1969-Present) that ran the table and won the national championship.

Team Year PPG Opp Rush Opp Pass Opp Yds Opp
Alabama 2018 54 15 217 127 350 190 567 317
Alabama 2009 32 12 215 78 188 166 403 244
Texas 2005 50 16 275 131 237 172 512 303
USC 2004 38 13 177 79 272 200 449 279
Miami (Fla.) 2001 43 10 205 133 250 138 455 271
Oklahoma 2000 37 15 135 108 295 171 430 279
Florida St. 1999 38 17 124 99 303 206 427 305
Nebraska 1997 47 17 393 73 121 184 514 257
Nebraska 1995 53 15 400 78 157 216 557 294
Alabama 1992 28 9 209 55 154 139 363 194
Miami (Fla.) 1991 32 8 146 132 295 157 441 289
Washington 1991 41 10 232 67 240 170 472 237
Alabama 1979 32 6 345 102 84 78 429 180
Notre Dame 1973 35 8 350 82 111 119 461 201
USC 1972 39 11 247 110 185 132 432 242
Nebraska 1971 39 8 253 98 178 112 431 210
Texas 1969 40 11 363 90 109 136 472 226
Mystery Team 46 9 319 77 189 185 508 262

I’ll mention that mystery team in a moment.  Let’s look at Alabama’s stats so far.  The Crimson Tide is averaging 54 points per game and giving up 15.  For the most part, the starters have rarely played in the fourth quarter of any game and some have not played in the second half.

This Tide team is unstoppable on offense, as they can still ram through defenses and break through for large rushing gains, but now they have the best quarterback in the nation.  Tagovailoa is drawing comparisons to Steve Young, Aaron Rodgers, and Russell Wilson.  For older folks, he’s like a combination of Daryle Lamonica and Tobin Rote.  In a day when few teams average more than 10-11 yards per completion, Tagovailoa is averaging more than 14 yards per attempt!

The only knock against Alabama so far this year is that they have played a rather weak schedule.  However, the Tide quickly dismissed the good teams they have faced.  They beat Texas A&M by more than three touchdowns, while Clemson had to sneak by the Aggies.  They beat Ole Miss by 55 and Missouri by 29.

The Crimson Tide still has games to play against LSU, Mississippi State, and Auburn, but we don’t expect any of the three to beat ‘Bama.  LSU will be the toughest test prior to the SEC Championship Game.  With Georgia losing to LSU, and with Florida and Kentucky still on the Bulldogs’ schedule, there is no guarantee that Georgia will even make the SEC Championship Game.

If Alabama runs the table, they will play the #4 seed in the Semifinal Game of the Playoffs.  As of today, it looks like the #4 seed will be a one-loss team, from Among Texas, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Michigan, and remotely Washington St. or Oregon.  None of these teams will challenge the Tide.

The Championship Game might pit Clemson against ‘Bama again.  It could be Alabama and Ohio State, but we have a suspicion that the Buckeyes will lose one game this year, either to Purdue this weekend, Michigan State, or Michigan.  There really isn’t a team other than maybe Clemson that can compete with Alabama this year.  For the Crimson Tide to lose, they will have to beat themselves.

Now to the Mystery Team  

The Mystery Team had drawn comparisons to the great Army teams with Glenn Davis and Felix Blanchard.  They had been compared to the great Oklahoma team that won 47 games in a row.  In fact, the Mystery Team had won 22 games in a row

What you are looking at is an undefeated team with the closest win being 27 points.  This Mystery Team beat the #10 team by four touchdowns and the #19 team by 33 points.

But, there’s a catch.  This team was undefeated with these gaudy stats with one game left to play.  They only needed to win their final game of the year against a team they had defeated by more than five touchdowns the year before.

This team was called by its coach, a Hall of Famer with prior national titles as his best ever.  Did this team beat itself?  No, not exactly.  The prior year’s team cost this Mystery Team its for sure national championship.

This team is Ohio State in 1969.  Through eight games, the Buckeyes did what Alabama is doing this year.  They never trailed for even one second of the season going into the final game against Michigan.  A 41-14 win over Washington in Seattle was their closest game to date, and they entered this game as a 17-point favorite over the 7-2 and 12th-ranked Wolverines at the Big House.

The year before Ohio State beat Michigan 50-14.  The Buckeyes had tried for two when they were up 43-14 and missed, and then they added another touchdown late to hit the half-century mark.  For the next season, first year Michigan coach Bo Schembechler made sure his returning players remembered that game.  The number 50 was plastered everywhere a Wolverine football player could find himself in the athletic facility.  Practice uniforms had the number 50.

Ohio State began the 1969 game like they had the previous eight games.  They returned the opening kick past the 40 yard line, and then on the first scrimmage play, quarterback Rex Kern scrambled for 25 yards to put the Buckeyes close to the Michigan 30.  Bruising fullback Jim Otis carried wide on a sweep, then off-tackle, then up the middle twice in a row to give Ohio State a first down at the Michigan 20.  Otis appeared to make it a first and goal a few plays later, but OSU was called for a false start.  On 4th and short, Michigan made the first big play of the drive stopping the Scarlet and Gray inches short of a first down.

Michigan could not do anything with the ball and punted after three plays.  Ohio State roared right back.  Michigan punted, and Ohio State punt returner Larry Zelina returned it almost back to where Michigan had punted.  It was a quick and easy five play drive for a touchdown, and the Buckeyes led 6-0.  PATs were not automatic in those days, and the OSU extra point was missed.

At this point, it looked like the blowout was on.  However, the Michigan players were not about to let Ohio State do to them in Ann Arbor what had happened a year earlier in Columbus.  Michigan drove the ball on a 10-play drive for a touchdown, and when behemoth kicker Frank Titas hit the PAT, Ohio State trailed for the first time all season, even if it was just 7-6.

Ohio State did what Woody Hayes’ teams did best.  On the next possession, they drove almost 75 yards in 10 plays to retake the lead on a pass from Kern to end Jan White.  On a 2-point try, Kern was sacked before he could pass the ball, and Ohio State led 12-7.  The Buckeyes would not score another point in 1969.

Michigan came alive and quickly drove for the go-ahead score to take a 14-12 lead.  Before the half was done, the Wolverines would put the game away.  After Ohio State was forced to punt, Barry Pierson almost returned it to the house, being knocked down just short of the goal.  Michigan scored a couple of plays later and led 21-12 near the middle of the quarter.  Following a nice Ohio State drive that stalled, Coach Hayes elected to try to make a 53-yard field goal, as in those days, a missed field goal that did not get returned was a touchback.  The kick was way short, and Michigan had the ball once again.  A nice drive could consume the clock, but Schembechler was interested in more.

Michigan calmly killed the clock, but they did so by driving 80 yard for the apparent killing touchdown.  The score was overturned by a penalty.  A short field goal made it 24-12 Wolverines, and that’s how the score stayed the rest of the day.

In the second half, Pierson, the punt returner that set up the go ahead touchdown was the leading receiver for Ohio State.  He intercepted three Buckeye passes, as quarterbacks Kern and Ron Maciejowski threw a combined six picks.  Ohio State didn’t threaten to score any more touchdowns, missing a couple of long field goals.  Michigan played conservatively letting the Buckeyes make mistakes, and the greatest Ohio State team in modern history finished the season 8-1.

Here’s the thing.  In this era, the Big Ten was not bowl friendly.  The champion of the league earned a Rose Bowl bid, but there was a rule that a team could not make consecutive trips to the Rose Bowl.  Had Ohio State beaten Michigan, they would have been 9-0 with no bowl game.  Michigan, at 7-3, would have been picked to go in their place.  However, Schembechler had told his team that if they lost to the Buckeyes, he would decline the Rose Bowl bid.  Third place Purdue would have faced USC instead.

Michigan did win, and the Wolverines headed to Pasadena to play a 9-0-1 USC team that had tied Notre Dame.  On the night before the game, Schembechler suffered a heart attack and did not coach in the game.  Assistant Jim Young became acting head coach, and Michigan played lethargically, losing to USC 10-3.  It was the first time Michigan had ever lost a bowl game.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 30, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 6

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Thursday October 4
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Houston Tulsa 15.2 17.1 15.0
Troy Georgia St. 16.2 15.3 16.8

 

Friday October 5
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Marshall Middle Tennesee 7.2 8.8 7.2
Louisville Georgia Tech -9.5 -8.4 -10.0
BYU Utah St. 0.1 -0.9 -0.5

 

Saturday October 6
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Georgia Southern South Alabama 11.5 11.0 11.3
Massachusetts South Florida -11.7 -11.8 -10.5
Wake Forest Clemson -19.6 -19.1 -22.5
Temple East Carolina 15.0 15.0 15.9
Ball St. Northern Illinois -8.3 -6.7 -8.5
Pittsburgh Syracuse -7.4 -6.3 -7.6
Central Florida SMU 26.2 26.8 27.6
Florida Atlantic Old Dominion 16.2 12.7 16.7
Ohio St. Indiana 33.1 31.6 34.2
North Carolina St. Boston College 2.0 4.4 1.9
Florida LSU 1.8 -0.4 1.4
South Carolina Missouri 0.6 1.1 -1.0
Michigan Maryland 21.9 22.1 23.2
Cincinnati Tulane 3.6 4.9 4.1
Kent St. Ohio U -13.5 -13.8 -14.7
Western Michigan Eastern Michigan 1.1 1.7 1.4
Central Michigan Buffalo -8.7 -8.3 -9.3
Akron Miami (O) 9.3 8.8 7.0
Virginia Tech Notre Dame -6.7 -4.1 -5.4
Rutgers Illinois -1.1 -1.7 -1.8
Boise St. San Diego St. 17.5 16.4 17.2
Colorado Arizona St. -2.3 0.6 -1.1
New Mexico St. Liberty -3.2 0.2 -3.3
UTEP North Texas -32.0 -31.3 -33.5
UCLA Washington -27.8 -25.9 -32.5
Stanford Utah 10.5 9.5 10.2
Nevada Fresno St. -16.5 -15.3 -16.8
Oregon St. Washington St. -20.0 -21.4 -21.0
Arizona California -3.1 -2.0 -2.3
UNLV New Mexico 8.2 8.1 8.5
Michigan St. Northwestern 13.3 13.2 12.8
West Virginia Kansas 18.7 19.3 20.3
Arkansas Alabama -37.0 -37.3 -40.1
Louisiana Tech UAB 8.6 8.8 9.7
Texas A&M Kentucky 2.1 1.8 2.2
Oklahoma St. Iowa St. 6.4 6.4 7.1
Georgia Vanderbilt 33.8 29.8 35.0
Minnesota Iowa -6.5 -4.6 -5.8
Toledo Bowling Green 19.9 21.3 20.0
Mississippi St. Auburn 2.0 0.5 0.5
Air Force Navy -0.7 -3.0 -0.7
Ole Miss UL-Monroe 22.0 21.7 22.0
Texas (n) Oklahoma -8.3 -8.4 -9.5
Memphis Connecticut 28.9 30.4 30.9
Texas St. Louisiana -4.0 -2.7 -5.3
Rice UTSA -6.3 -7.7 -8.1
Baylor Kansas St. 2.3 1.7 3.0
Miami (Fla.) Florida St. 14.7 14.2 15.2
Wisconsin Nebraska 26.8 25.8 29.0
San Jose St. Colorado St. -1.2 -1.2 -3.0
Hawaii Wyoming -11.6 -9.2 -12.3

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Note: The PiRate Ratings are predictive ratings.  While past results are a major factor, these are not rankings based on what the teams have done so far.  Some teams will be ranked ahead of teams that beat them.  We are only trying to rate the teams based on what they should do in their next game.  Thus, our goal is to beat the spread and pick winners rather than be a report card for each team.

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 140.0 137.9 141.9 139.9
2 Georgia 131.1 127.6 132.1 130.2
3 Ohio St. 129.5 127.3 130.2 129.0
4 Clemson 129.2 126.5 129.8 128.5
5 Washington 125.6 123.5 127.5 125.5
6 Michigan 123.8 122.5 124.1 123.4
7 Penn St. 123.5 120.8 124.0 122.8
8 Notre Dame 124.1 120.9 123.0 122.6
9 Oklahoma 120.8 119.5 121.4 120.6
10 Auburn 119.4 118.3 121.3 119.7
11 Michigan St. 120.3 118.3 119.8 119.5
12 Miami 118.3 117.0 118.2 117.9
13 Mississippi St. 118.4 115.7 118.8 117.7
14 Wisconsin 118.4 115.8 118.2 117.5
15 Stanford 118.2 115.5 118.4 117.4
16 L S U 115.4 115.6 116.6 115.9
17 Central Florida 115.0 115.1 115.5 115.2
18 Missouri 114.8 113.2 116.0 114.6
19 Boise St. 114.3 113.6 114.9 114.3
20 Virginia Tech 114.4 113.8 114.5 114.2
21 Kentucky 114.6 113.5 114.5 114.2
22 West Virginia 114.5 113.7 114.1 114.1
23 Boston College 114.8 112.0 114.6 113.8
24 Florida 114.2 112.3 115.0 113.8
25 N. Carolina St. 113.8 113.4 113.5 113.6
26 Texas A&M 113.7 112.3 113.7 113.2
27 Oregon 112.9 112.9 113.6 113.1
28 Duke 113.8 111.5 113.2 112.9
29 Oklahoma St. 113.2 111.5 113.4 112.7
30 T C U 112.9 111.9 111.7 112.1
31 Iowa 113.2 110.7 112.4 112.1
32 S. Carolina 112.4 111.3 112.0 111.9
33 Texas 112.5 111.1 111.9 111.8
34 Utah 110.7 108.9 111.2 110.3
35 Fresno St. 110.5 109.2 110.6 110.1
36 Georgia Tech 110.0 108.9 109.6 109.5
37 Syracuse 110.2 108.7 109.5 109.5
38 Northwestern 110.0 108.2 110.0 109.4
39 Iowa State 109.8 108.0 109.2 109.0
40 Washington St. 109.3 108.3 108.6 108.7
41 U S C 109.4 107.6 108.6 108.5
42 Arizona St. 108.5 107.1 108.2 107.9
43 Texas Tech 108.4 107.0 107.1 107.5
44 California 107.9 105.3 107.4 106.9
45 Purdue 107.5 105.9 107.1 106.8
46 Florida St. 106.1 105.4 105.6 105.7
47 Wake Forest 107.2 104.9 104.8 105.6
48 Utah St. 103.7 105.0 105.0 104.6
49 N. Texas 103.1 105.5 103.9 104.1
50 Maryland 104.8 103.4 103.9 104.0
51 Colorado 103.1 104.7 104.2 104.0
52 Virginia 103.8 104.3 102.9 103.7
53 Minnesota 103.7 103.2 103.6 103.5
54 Houston 102.9 103.7 103.1 103.2
55 BYU 102.3 102.6 103.0 102.6
56 Army 102.3 102.9 102.5 102.6
57 Kansas St. 103.3 101.9 102.1 102.4
58 Baylor 102.6 100.6 102.1 101.8
59 Memphis 100.8 102.6 101.5 101.6
60 Ole Miss 101.7 101.3 101.9 101.6
61 Arizona 101.9 100.3 102.1 101.4
62 Vanderbilt 100.2 100.8 100.1 100.4
63 San Diego St. 99.8 100.2 100.7 100.2
64 Pittsburgh 99.8 99.3 98.9 99.4
65 Appalachian St. 98.1 99.8 99.6 99.1
66 Indiana 99.4 98.7 99.0 99.0
67 South Florida 98.2 100.3 98.2 98.9
68 Temple 98.7 98.6 99.4 98.9
69 Arkansas 100.1 97.6 98.8 98.8
70 N. Carolina 98.7 97.6 97.9 98.1
71 Toledo 97.6 98.9 97.5 98.0
72 Louisville 98.0 98.0 97.2 97.7
73 Buffalo 96.7 98.8 97.7 97.7
74 Kansas 98.8 97.3 96.8 97.6
75 Cincinnati 96.6 98.2 96.9 97.2
76 Florida Atlantic 96.8 97.2 97.2 97.1
77 Louisiana Tech 95.5 97.9 97.0 96.8
78 Tennessee 96.4 96.8 95.7 96.3
79 Navy 95.5 98.0 95.1 96.2
80 Wyoming 96.3 96.1 95.9 96.1
81 Marshall 94.3 97.0 95.3 95.6
82 Tulane 95.4 95.8 95.3 95.5
83 Akron 94.9 96.1 95.2 95.4
84 Northern Illinois 95.0 95.6 94.8 95.1
85 Ohio U 93.9 95.2 94.6 94.6
86 Eastern Michigan 93.3 94.6 94.0 94.0
87 U C L A 94.8 94.6 92.0 93.8
88 Nebraska 94.6 93.0 92.2 93.2
89 Troy 92.1 93.5 93.6 93.1
90 Western Michigan 91.9 93.7 92.9 92.9
91 Air Force 91.8 92.0 91.4 91.7
92 Illinois 91.8 91.5 90.8 91.4
93 SMU 91.9 91.3 90.9 91.4
94 Florida Int’l. 89.3 93.4 90.1 90.9
95 Nevada 91.0 90.9 90.8 90.9
96 Middle Tennessee 90.1 91.2 91.1 90.8
97 U N L V 89.9 91.4 90.3 90.5
98 Tulsa 90.8 89.6 91.1 90.5
99 U A B 89.3 91.6 89.7 90.2
100 Arkansas St. 88.9 90.3 90.5 89.9
101 Miami (O) 88.1 89.9 90.7 89.6
102 Georgia Southern 87.5 89.0 88.1 88.2
103 Rutgers 87.7 86.8 86.0 86.8
104 Central Michigan 85.5 88.0 86.0 86.5
105 East Carolina 86.2 86.1 86.0 86.1
106 Southern Miss. 84.5 87.6 85.3 85.8
107 W. Kentucky 83.9 87.1 85.1 85.4
108 New Mexico 84.7 86.3 84.8 85.3
109 Oregon St. 86.3 83.9 84.5 84.9
110 Old Dominion 83.6 87.5 83.4 84.9
111 Ball St. 84.1 86.5 83.8 84.8
112 Massachusetts 83.5 85.5 84.7 84.6
113 Colo. State 82.9 83.7 82.8 83.1
114 UL-Monroe 82.1 82.0 82.4 82.2
115 Hawaii 80.7 82.9 79.5 81.0
116 Liberty 81.1 79.9 81.3 80.8
117 U T S A 78.7 82.9 79.1 80.3
118 Bowling Green 80.2 80.1 80.0 80.1
119 Georgia St. 79.0 81.1 79.8 80.0
120 South Alabama 79.0 81.0 79.8 79.9
121 Coastal Carolina 78.7 81.5 79.3 79.8
122 Louisiana 77.8 79.7 78.8 78.8
123 San Jose St. 78.6 79.5 76.8 78.3
124 Kent St. 77.9 78.9 77.3 78.0
125 N. Mexico St. 74.9 77.1 75.0 75.7
126 Charlotte 74.4 76.6 74.3 75.1
127 Connecticut 74.9 75.2 73.6 74.6
128 Texas State 71.3 74.5 70.9 72.2
129 Rice 69.9 72.7 68.5 70.4
130 U T E P 68.6 71.7 68.0 69.4

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 115.0 115.1 115.5 115.2 1-0 4-0
South Florida 98.2 100.3 98.2 98.9 1-0 4-0
Temple 98.7 98.6 99.4 98.9 1-0 2-3
Cincinnati 96.6 98.2 96.9 97.2 1-0 5-0
East Carolina 86.2 86.1 86.0 86.1 0-1 2-2
Connecticut 74.9 75.2 73.6 74.6 0-2 1-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Houston 102.9 103.7 103.1 103.2 0-0 3-1
Memphis 100.8 102.6 101.5 101.6 0-2 3-2
Navy 95.5 98.0 95.1 96.2 1-1 2-2
Tulane 95.4 95.8 95.3 95.5 1-0 2-3
SMU 91.9 91.3 90.9 91.4 1-0 2-3
Tulsa 90.8 89.6 91.1 90.5 0-1 1-3
AAC Averages 95.6 96.2 95.6 95.8
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 129.2 126.5 129.8 128.5 1-0 4-0
Boston College 114.8 112.0 114.6 113.8 1-0 3-1
N. Carolina St. 113.8 113.4 113.5 113.6 0-0 3-0
Syracuse 110.2 108.7 109.5 109.5 1-0 4-0
Florida St. 106.1 105.4 105.6 105.7 0-2 2-2
Wake Forest 107.2 104.9 104.8 105.6 0-1 2-2
Louisville 98.0 98.0 97.2 97.7 0-1 2-2
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami 118.3 117.0 118.2 117.9 0-0 3-1
Virginia Tech 114.4 113.8 114.5 114.2 1-0 2-1
Duke 113.8 111.5 113.2 112.9 0-0 4-0
Georgia Tech 110.0 108.9 109.6 109.5 0-2 1-3
Virginia 103.8 104.3 102.9 103.7 1-0 3-1
Pittsburgh 99.8 99.3 98.9 99.4 1-1 2-2
N. Carolina 98.7 97.6 97.9 98.1 1-0 1-2
ACC Averages 109.9 108.7 109.3 109.3
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 120.8 119.5 121.4 120.6 2-0 5-0
West Virginia 114.5 113.7 114.1 114.1 2-0 4-0
Oklahoma St. 113.2 111.5 113.4 112.7 1-1 4-1
T C U 112.9 111.9 111.7 112.1 1-1 3-2
Texas 112.5 111.1 111.9 111.8 2-0 4-1
Iowa State 109.8 108.0 109.2 109.0 0-2 1-3
Texas Tech 108.4 107.0 107.1 107.5 1-1 3-2
Kansas St. 103.3 101.9 102.1 102.4 0-2 2-3
Baylor 102.6 100.6 102.1 101.8 1-1 3-2
Kansas 98.8 97.3 96.8 97.6 0-2 2-3
Big 12 Averages 109.7 108.2 109.0 109.0
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Ohio St. 129.5 127.3 130.2 129.0 2-0 5-0
Michigan 123.8 122.5 124.1 123.4 2-0 4-1
Penn St. 123.5 120.8 124.0 122.8 1-1 4-1
Michigan St. 120.3 118.3 119.8 119.5 2-0 3-1
Maryland 104.8 103.4 103.9 104.0 1-0 3-1
Indiana 99.4 98.7 99.0 99.0 1-1 4-1
Rutgers 87.7 86.8 86.0 86.8 0-2 1-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Wisconsin 118.4 115.8 118.2 117.5 1-0 3-1
Iowa 113.2 110.7 112.4 112.1 0-1 3-1
Northwestern 110.0 108.2 110.0 109.4 1-1 1-3
Purdue 107.5 105.9 107.1 106.8 1-1 2-3
Minnesota 103.7 103.2 103.6 103.5 0-1 3-1
Nebraska 94.6 93.0 92.2 93.2 0-2 0-4
Illinois 91.8 91.5 90.8 91.4 0-1 2-2
Big Ten Averages 109.2 107.6 108.7 108.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Atlantic 96.8 97.2 97.2 97.1 0-1 2-3
Marshall 94.3 97.0 95.3 95.6 1-0 3-1
Florida Int’l. 89.3 93.4 90.1 90.9 1-0 3-2
Middle Tennessee 90.1 91.2 91.1 90.8 1-0 2-2
W. Kentucky 83.9 87.1 85.1 85.4 0-1 1-4
Old Dominion 83.6 87.5 83.4 84.9 0-2 1-4
Charlotte 74.4 76.6 74.3 75.1 1-1 2-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
N. Texas 103.1 105.5 103.9 104.1 0-1 4-1
Louisiana Tech 95.5 97.9 97.0 96.8 1-0 3-1
U A B 89.3 91.6 89.7 90.2 1-0 3-1
Southern Miss. 84.5 87.6 85.3 85.8 1-0 2-2
U T S A 78.7 82.9 79.1 80.3 1-0 2-3
Rice 69.9 72.7 68.5 70.4 0-1 1-4
U T E P 68.6 71.7 68.0 69.4 0-1 0-5
CUSA Averages 85.9 88.6 86.3 86.9
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 124.1 120.9 123.0 122.6 x 5-0
BYU 102.3 102.6 103.0 102.6 x 3-2
Army 102.3 102.9 102.5 102.6 x 3-2
Massachusetts 83.5 85.5 84.7 84.6 x 2-4
Liberty 81.1 79.9 81.3 80.8 x 2-2
N. Mexico St. 74.9 77.1 75.0 75.7 x 1-4
Independents Averages 94.7 94.8 94.9 94.8
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Buffalo 96.7 98.8 97.7 97.7 1-0 4-1
Akron 94.9 96.1 95.2 95.4 0-0 2-1
Ohio U 93.9 95.2 94.6 94.6 0-0 2-2
Miami (O) 88.1 89.9 90.7 89.6 1-1 1-4
Bowling Green 80.2 80.1 80.0 80.1 0-1 1-4
Kent St. 77.9 78.9 77.3 78.0 0-1 1-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 97.6 98.9 97.5 98.0 0-0 2-2
Northern Illinois 95.0 95.6 94.8 95.1 2-0 2-3
Eastern Michigan 93.3 94.6 94.0 94.0 0-2 2-3
Western Michigan 91.9 93.7 92.9 92.9 1-0 3-2
Central Michigan 85.5 88.0 86.0 86.5 0-1 1-4
Ball St. 84.1 86.5 83.8 84.8 1-0 2-3
MAC Averages 89.9 91.3 90.4 90.6
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Boise St. 114.3 113.6 114.9 114.3 1-0 3-1
Utah St. 103.7 105.0 105.0 104.6 1-0 3-1
Wyoming 96.3 96.1 95.9 96.1 0-1 2-3
Air Force 91.8 92.0 91.4 91.7 0-2 1-3
New Mexico 84.7 86.3 84.8 85.3 0-0 2-2
Colo. State 82.9 83.7 82.8 83.1 0-1 1-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 110.5 109.2 110.6 110.1 0-0 3-1
San Diego St. 99.8 100.2 100.7 100.2 0-0 3-1
Nevada 91.0 90.9 90.8 90.9 1-0 3-2
U N L V 89.9 91.4 90.3 90.5 0-0 2-2
Hawaii 80.7 82.9 79.5 81.0 2-0 5-1
San Jose St. 78.6 79.5 76.8 78.3 0-1 0-4
MWC Averages 93.7 94.2 93.6 93.8
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 125.6 123.5 127.5 125.5 2-0 4-1
Stanford 118.2 115.5 118.4 117.4 2-0 4-1
Oregon 112.9 112.9 113.6 113.1 1-1 4-1
Washington St. 109.3 108.3 108.6 108.7 1-1 4-1
California 107.9 105.3 107.4 106.9 0-1 3-1
Oregon St. 86.3 83.9 84.5 84.9 0-2 1-4
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 110.7 108.9 111.2 110.3 0-2 2-2
U S C 109.4 107.6 108.6 108.5 2-1 3-2
Arizona St. 108.5 107.1 108.2 107.9 1-1 3-2
Colorado 103.1 104.7 104.2 104.0 1-0 4-0
Arizona 101.9 100.3 102.1 101.4 1-1 2-3
U C L A 94.8 94.6 92.0 93.8 0-1 0-4
Pac-12 Averages 107.4 106.0 107.2 106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 131.1 127.6 132.1 130.2 3-0 5-0
Missouri 114.8 113.2 116.0 114.6 0-1 3-1
Kentucky 114.6 113.5 114.5 114.2 3-0 5-0
Florida 114.2 112.3 115.0 113.8 2-1 4-1
S. Carolina 112.4 111.3 112.0 111.9 1-2 2-2
Vanderbilt 100.2 100.8 100.1 100.4 0-1 3-2
Tennessee 96.4 96.8 95.7 96.3 0-2 2-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 140.0 137.9 141.9 139.9 2-0 5-0
Auburn 119.4 118.3 121.3 119.7 1-1 4-1
Mississippi St. 118.4 115.7 118.8 117.7 0-2 3-2
L S U 115.4 115.6 116.6 115.9 2-0 5-0
Texas A&M 113.7 112.3 113.7 113.2 1-1 3-2
Ole Miss 101.7 101.3 101.9 101.6 0-2 3-2
Arkansas 100.1 97.6 98.8 98.8 0-2 1-4
SEC Averages 113.7 112.4 114.2 113.4
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 98.1 99.8 99.6 99.1 1-0 3-1
Troy 92.1 93.5 93.6 93.1 2-0 4-1
Georgia Southern 87.5 89.0 88.1 88.2 1-0 3-1
Georgia St. 79.0 81.1 79.8 80.0 1-0 2-3
Coastal Carolina 78.7 81.5 79.3 79.8 1-1 3-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 88.9 90.3 90.5 89.9 0-1 3-2
UL-Monroe 82.1 82.0 82.4 82.2 0-2 2-3
South Alabama 79.0 81.0 79.8 79.9 1-1 1-4
Louisiana 77.8 79.7 78.8 78.8 0-1 1-3
Texas State 71.3 74.5 70.9 72.2 0-1 1-3
Sun Belt Averages 83.4 85.2 84.3 84.3

The Conferences Rated

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 113.7 112.4 114.2 113.4
2 ACC 109.9 108.7 109.3 109.3
3 B12 109.7 108.2 109.0 109.0
4 BTEN 109.2 107.6 108.7 108.5
5 P-12 107.4 106.0 107.2 106.9
6 AAC 95.6 96.2 95.6 95.8
7 IND 94.7 94.8 94.9 94.8
8 MWC 93.7 94.2 93.6 93.8
9 MAC 89.9 91.3 90.4 90.6
10 CUSA 85.9 88.6 86.3 86.9
11 SUN 83.4 85.2 84.3 84.3

The Top 5 Group of 5 Teams

  1. Central Florida
  2. South Florida
  3. Cincinnati
  4. Boise St.
  5. Fresno St.

 

Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA Utah St. Southern Miss.
Cure AAC SBC [Liberty] Coastal Carolina
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Fresno St. California
Camellia MAC SBC Buffalo Troy
New Orleans CUSA SBC UAB Appalachian St.
Boca Raton MAC CUSA Western Michigan Florida Int’l.
Frisco AAC MAC Memphis Ohio U
Gasparilla AAC CUSA Cincinnati Marshall
Bahamas AAC CUSA South Florida North Texas
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Northern Illinois Boise St.
Birmingham AAC SEC Tulane Vanderbilt 5-7
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 Houston [Army]
Dollar General MAC SBC Akron Georgia Southern
Hawaii CUSA MWC Louisiana Tech Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA [Wyoming] Middle Tennessee
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Toledo Northwestern 5-7
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Iowa St. Arizona St.
Independence ACC SEC [BYU] [UNLV]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Syracuse Michigan St.
Texas Big 12 SEC Oklahoma St. Texas A&M
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Duke Missouri
Camping World ACC Big 12 North Carolina St. Texas
Arizona MWC SBC San Diego St. Arkansas St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 West Virginia USC
Belk ACC SEC Virginia Tech South Carolina
Peach At-large At-large Georgia Central Florida
Military AAC ACC [Utah] Boston College
Sun ACC Pac-12 Virginia Colorado
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Wisconsin Washington St.
Liberty Big 12 SEC TCU Mississippi St.
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa Stanford
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Indiana Auburn
Outback Big Ten SEC Minnesota Florida
Fiesta At-large At-large Penn St. Oregon
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Miami (Fla.) Kentucky
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan Washington
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma LSU
PLAYOFFS
Cotton Alabama Clemson
Orange Ohio St. Notre Dame
Championship Alabama Notre Dame
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections
Teams in Italics are 5-7 that qualify based on top APR scores

FBS Power 5 Schools That May Have New Coaches in 2019

There are sites where they list 10-50 head coaches on the hot seat.  Some of these are ridiculous, as they place secure coaches on their lists just to fill up space.  Some of these lists are not updated frequently, as they continue to list already dismissed coaches as being on a hot seat.

The majority of you reading this care mostly about the Power 5 schools.  We have a list of six coaches legitimately on the hot seat after one month of the football season has been played.  Additionally, we added one other that could be a one year hire.

We present the top 6 in reverse order with number one being the most likely candidate to not be his team’s head coach in 2019.

6. Texas Tech–Kliff Kingsbury

If Texas Tech can get to a bowl this year, Kingsbury will most likely get a one year reprieve.  The Red Raiders have an upset win over Oklahoma State, and this gives TTU a chance to make it to 6-6 and earn a low tier bowl.

5. Rutgers–Chris Ash

Rutgers has done very little in Ash’s first two seasons, and they are headed for a last place finish in the Big Ten East this year.  Losing to Kansas and Buffalo has harmed his job status, but transitioning to the Big Ten has been very difficult.  Ash may get one more year to try to turn the program around.

4. Georgia Tech–Paul Johnson

The fans of the Yellow Jackets have grown a little tired of watching their team rush for 300 yards per game and give up a ton of passing yards, while losing a lot of close games.  The problem with dismissing Johnson is that either Tech will have to go through a rough transition moving from the option offense to a more conventional offense, possibly having a weak offense for the next two (even three) years, or they will have to hire another option style coach, like Army’s Jeff Monken.  Tech is most likely headed to another sub .500 record.

3. Larry Fedora–North Carolina

Unless the Tar Heels make a miraculous turnaround and beat several ACC opponents, including Duke, and then they sneak into a minor bowl game, Fedora is most likely out after this season.  UNC has one ACC Coastal Division title and no conference championships in Fedora’s tenure, and the school has been in the headlines for the wrong reasons too many times in recent years.

2. Lovie Smith–Illinois

Illinois last had a winning season in 2011, and that team went 7-6 by beating a 6-7 UCLA team in a bowl and beating a slate of weak opponents.  The Illini last had a really successful season in 2007 when they snuck into the Rose Bowl.  This isn’t a sexy program, but there is no reason it cannot compete in the weaker of the two Big Ten divisions.  Smith’s teams in Champaign-Urbana have yet to show any intent on competing.  If Illinois loses at Nebraska in November, the announcement could come before they play their next game.

1 D.J. Durkin–Maryland

This one is obvious.  Durkin is holding on to this job strictly on a technicality at the moment, as he is on leave pending a hearing into the death of former player Jordan McNair.  We can see no way that Durkin will keep this job.  Whether interim head coach Matt Canada can win enough games to become the full-time coach is debatable, as the school may choose to clean house and start from scratch like it once did with its basketball program when it rambled out of control.

Could He Be One and Done?

One coach not on the hot seat list above is Arizona coach Kevin Sumlin.  Sumlin has not been the best fit with the talent on hand in Tucson, and the Cardinals are looking like a last place team in the weaker South Division in the Pac-12.

Sumlin inherited the top dual threat quarterback in the nation in Khalil Tate.  Last year under previous coach Rich Rodriguez, Tate rushed for 1,411 yards and 12 touchdowns, averaging more than nine yards per rush.  He threw for 1,591 yards and 14 touchdowns.  He missed two games and part of another, so with 8 offensive starters returning, including their top-rate leader, Arizona was expected to score as many points per game as they did last year, if not more.  How many did they average in 2017?  41.3 points per game ranked among the national leaders.

Arizona returned nearly every player that caught a pass and their top non-QB runner.  The offense under Rich Rod would have expected to top 500 yards per game and 40 points per game for sure.

Sumlin has turned Tate into a drop back passer, and the results have been disastrous.  Through five games this year, Tate averages a measley 14 rushing yards per game.  His passing efficiency is down, mostly due to a much lower completion percentage.  Most importantly, the Wildcats are averaging 24 points per game against FBS opponents.  A 3-9 record is the most likely scenario, but that assumes ‘Zona will beat UCLA.

Sumlin has one saving grace.  The school will basically have to mortgage the football stadium to buy out his contract this year or next year, unless they can find cause to dismiss him.  Cause does not mean going 2-10.  He would have to be culpable in a violation of rules or school policy.

Coaches Likely To Receive Promotions To Better Jobs

There are some obvious names that are likely to be candidates to move up to bigger and better jobs in 2019.  It depends on which jobs come open.  You never know when somebody might retire, take an NFL job, or step down due to health reasons.  What if Nick Saban goes 15-0 and decides he has nothing more to prove at Alabama?  He might decide that he has one more chance at a Lomardi Trophy.  Others that potentially could retire include Bill Snyder at Kansas State, Kirk Ferentz at Iowa, David Cutcliffe at Duke, and even Mark Dantonio at Michigan State.

Who would be the key candidates that some school’s athletic director and board members might look to when they fill these jobs?

Coaches already at Power 5 Schools

1. Matt Campbell–Iowa St.

Campbell has turned Iowa State into a serious player in the Big 12, but this program has so many liabilities trying to compete with Oklahoma and Texas.  It isn’t likely that Campbell can sustain success over the long haul in Ames, so he might look to strike while the iron is hot, as it might start to cool after this season.

2. Bronco Mendenhall–Virginia

Mendenhall won at BYU and was a somewhat surprising choice for the Cavaliers’ job.  After a slow rebuilding process, he has made the Cavs a decent team that should earn a second consecutive bowl appearance.  This has never been a major football power, and Mendenhall maybe has one more job left in his resume.

3. Jeff Brohm–Purdue

Brohm won at Western Kentucky and immediately won at Purdue last year, taking the Boilermakers to their first bowl game in five years.  This is a hard place to win, but it has been done before.  However, Purdue is a basketball school, and other football powers can offer Brohm more than Purdue can match.  If he can get the Boilermakers back to a bowl this year after  an 0-3 start, somebody may come after him.

4. Mike Leach–Washington State

This would be a long shot, but Leach has been offered new job opportunities in the past 12 months.  He chose to stay in Pullman.  If you have never been to this part of the country, Pullman is in one of the most beautiful areas, offering lifelong Westerners like Leach something he could not find in the East or South.  The Palouse can transform an Instagrammer into the next Ansel Adams.  Leach might like to finish his career in this Heaven on Earth.  The contract to lure him away would have to be guaranteed with several million dollars per year offered.

Group  of 5 Head Coaches

Bryan Harsin–Boise St.

Harsin has become the next great Boise State head coach.  Dirk Koetter could not win at Arizona State after leaving Boise.  Dan Hawkins failed at Colorado.  Chris Petersen has become a major success at Washington, so one of the three great Bronco coaches has been able to do the trick away from the field of blue.

Craig Bohl–Wyoming

Bohl helped create the FCS dynasty at North Dakota State, winning three consecutive national titles.  He’s done an admirable job at Wyoming, where even though the state produces few FBS-caliber recruits, this program has a long history of being viable.  Bohl’s biggest liability is the one he can do nothing about–he’s 61 years old.

Scott Satterfield–Appalachian State

It seems like it is just a matter of time before some school comes after him and then offers him what it will take to get him to sign on the dotted line.  The Sun Belt Conference might never produce a New Year’s Six Bowl team, because it generally ranks last among the Group of 5.  Appalachian State might be good enough to play in an upper tier December bowl game if given the chance, but it isn’t likely to happen.  A 12-1 season is quite possible this year, and it will only lead to a bowl like the Camellia, Dollar General, or New Orleans.

Neal Brown–Troy

Brown is exactly like Satterfield.  He has done an incredible job at Troy and should continue to receive attention from other schools looking to fill vacancies.  Beating LSU last year and Nebraska this year will move him onto some school’s short list in December.

Five Coordinators at FBS Schools That Should Become Head Coaches One Day

Dave Arranda–LSU Defensive Coordinator

Mike Bloomgren–Stanford Offensive Coordinator

Tee Martin–USC Offensive Coordinator

Todd Orlando–Texas Defensive Coordinator

Brent Venables–Clemson Defensive Coordinator

 

Five FCS Head Coaches That Could Become FBS Head Coaches

Brian Bohannon–Kennesaw State (An option style coach)

John Grass–Jacksonville State

Lance Guidry–McNeese State

Mike Houston–James Madison

Chris Klieman–North Dakota State

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 16, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 4

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Thursday, September 20
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Temple Tulsa 8.4 9.6 8.3

 

Friday September 21
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Central Florida Florida Atlantic 17.3 16.5 16.6
Illinois Penn St. -26.8 -23.9 -28.2
USC Washington St. 2.8 1.8 3.1

 

Saturday September 22
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Iowa St. Akron 18.5 15.2 17.5
Marshall North Carolina St. -16.0 -12.5 -14.4
Massachusetts Charlotte 10.2 9.7 11.0
Indiana Michigan St. -20.5 -18.8 -20.5
Maryland Minnesota -2.4 -3.4 -3.3
Ball St. Western Kentucky 1.6 0.6 -0.2
Purdue Boston College -10.2 -9.0 -11.1
Syracuse Connecticut 33.9 32.3 34.3
Miami (Fla.) Florida Int’l. 32.4 26.6 31.4
North Carolina Pittsburgh 0.8 0.0 0.6
Florida St. Northern Illinois 13.6 11.8 13.0
Bowling Green Miami (O) -3.6 -5.3 -4.1
Ohio St. Tulane 37.3 34.7 38.4
Georgia Tech Clemson -18.0 -15.8 -19.2
Cincinnati Ohio U 1.8 2.2 1.0
South Florida East Carolina 15.4 18.9 17.0
Wake Forest Notre Dame -7.7 -6.4 -8.5
Toledo Nevada 9.0 10.8 9.1
Virginia Louisville 4.8 5.2 4.4
Georgia St. Western Michigan -11.4 -10.3 -11.3
Rutgers Buffalo -2.3 -5.5 -5.7
Oregon St. Arizona -10.1 -10.8 -11.6
Oregon Stanford -5.6 -3.0 -5.5
Tennessee Florida -10.9 -8.8 -12.0
Kentucky Mississippi St. -12.1 -10.6 -12.9
Michigan Nebraska 26.9 27.2 29.8
West Virginia Kansas St. 9.5 10.0 9.8
Ole Miss Kent St. 26.5 25.3 28.1
Southern Miss. Rice 14.9 15.1 16.7
Auburn Arkansas 24.7 26.1 28.6
Oklahoma St. Texas Tech 14.7 14.3 16.3
SMU Navy -1.6 -5.2 -2.3
Louisiana Coastal Carolina 3.7 2.6 4.1
Arkansas St. UNLV 2.6 2.3 3.9
Texas TCU 0.2 -0.4 0.4
Oklahoma Army 29.5 27.8 30.2
LSU Louisiana Tech 23.0 20.4 22.9
Baylor Kansas 4.4 3.3 5.9
Vanderbilt South Carolina -7.1 -5.2 -6.3
Memphis South Alabama 26.8 27.0 27.3
Utah St. Air Force 13.2 14.6 15.3
UTEP New Mexico St. -3.9 -3.1 -4.5
UTSA Texas St. 11.1 12.4 12.5
UL-Monroe Troy -1.2 -2.9 -2.0
Old Dominion Virginia Tech -34.2 -29.7 -34.3
Liberty North Texas -17.1 -21.5 -17.8
Missouri Georgia -14.7 -12.5 -14.9
Alabama Texas A&M 28.9 28.0 30.4
Iowa Wisconsin 0.3 0.6 0.1
Washington Arizona St. 22.5 21.5 25.4
San Diego St. Eastern Michigan 10.9 10.1 11.5

 

FBS vs. FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
Colorado St. Illinois St. 10.5
Central Michigan Maine 5.0
Duke UNC-Central 49.9
Appalachian St. Gardner-Webb 40.9
BYU McNeese St. 19.0
Houston Texas Southern 45.6
Hawaii Duquesne 27.1

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 139.3 137.2 141.2 139.2
2 Georgia 132.2 128.4 133.6 131.4
3 Clemson 129.8 126.7 130.5 129.0
4 Ohio St. 128.7 126.2 129.3 128.1
5 Washington 126.8 124.4 129.1 126.7
6 Mississippi St. 123.8 121.1 124.4 123.1
7 Oklahoma 122.6 121.3 123.2 122.4
8 Michigan 122.3 121.1 122.8 122.0
9 Penn St. 122.7 119.8 123.2 121.9
10 Michigan St. 122.6 120.3 122.3 121.8
11 Auburn 121.4 120.2 123.6 121.7
12 Stanford 120.0 117.6 120.5 119.4
13 Notre Dame 119.4 115.8 117.8 117.6
14 Miami 117.9 116.3 117.7 117.3
15 Boston College 118.2 115.3 118.4 117.3
16 Virginia Tech 116.5 116.0 116.4 116.3
17 Wisconsin 117.0 114.3 116.6 116.0
18 Oklahoma St. 116.4 114.6 116.7 115.9
19 Duke 115.6 113.2 115.2 114.7
20 L S U 114.1 114.0 115.2 114.4
21 Missouri 114.5 113.0 115.7 114.4
22 T C U 114.2 113.3 113.2 113.5
23 Boise St. 113.5 112.7 113.9 113.4
24 Iowa 114.3 111.9 113.7 113.3
25 N. Carolina St. 113.6 113.0 113.2 113.3
26 Texas A&M 113.4 112.2 113.8 113.1
27 Central Florida 113.0 112.8 113.1 113.0
28 S. Carolina 112.3 111.1 111.7 111.7
29 Oregon 111.4 111.5 112.1 111.7
30 West Virginia 112.0 111.2 111.4 111.5
31 Utah 111.1 109.3 112.0 110.8
32 Texas 111.4 109.9 110.6 110.6
33 Florida 110.8 109.1 111.1 110.3
34 Fresno St. 110.0 108.3 109.9 109.4
35 Iowa State 110.0 108.0 109.3 109.1
36 Georgia Tech 109.3 108.3 108.7 108.8
37 Washington St. 109.1 108.2 108.0 108.4
38 Northwestern 109.1 107.2 108.9 108.4
39 California 109.4 106.6 109.0 108.3
40 Kentucky 108.8 107.6 108.5 108.3
41 Syracuse 109.0 107.6 108.1 108.2
42 U S C 108.9 107.0 108.1 108.0
43 Wake Forest 108.7 106.4 106.3 107.1
44 Arizona St. 107.3 105.9 106.6 106.6
45 Minnesota 106.7 106.2 106.6 106.5
46 Memphis 105.0 107.3 106.3 106.2
47 Florida St. 105.8 104.9 105.1 105.2
48 Kansas St. 105.5 104.1 104.5 104.7
49 Utah St. 103.5 105.0 105.1 104.5
50 Purdue 105.0 103.3 104.3 104.2
51 Ole Miss 104.0 103.7 104.8 104.1
52 Texas Tech 104.7 103.2 103.4 103.8
53 Vanderbilt 102.6 103.4 102.9 103.0
54 BYU 102.2 102.8 102.9 102.6
55 N. Texas 101.4 104.1 102.2 102.5
56 Houston 102.1 102.9 102.3 102.4
57 Colorado 101.1 102.7 102.4 102.1
58 Pittsburgh 102.3 102.0 101.7 102.0
59 Virginia 102.2 102.7 101.1 102.0
60 Baylor 102.3 100.1 101.7 101.4
61 San Diego St. 100.2 100.7 101.4 100.7
62 Arizona 101.2 99.5 101.1 100.6
63 Maryland 101.2 99.8 100.3 100.4
64 Louisville 100.4 100.4 99.8 100.2
65 N. Carolina 100.6 99.5 99.8 100.0
66 Kansas 100.9 99.8 98.9 99.9
67 South Florida 98.3 101.0 99.0 99.4
68 Indiana 99.1 98.5 98.8 98.8
69 Florida Atlantic 98.3 98.8 99.0 98.7
70 Arkansas 99.7 97.0 98.0 98.2
71 Temple 97.2 97.2 97.6 97.3
72 Toledo 96.6 98.3 96.5 97.1
73 Nebraska 98.4 96.9 96.0 97.1
74 Tennessee 96.9 97.3 96.1 96.8
75 Buffalo 95.4 97.7 96.7 96.6
76 Wyoming 96.6 96.5 96.4 96.5
77 Navy 95.5 98.3 95.2 96.4
78 Army 96.1 96.5 96.0 96.2
79 Marshall 94.6 97.5 95.8 96.0
80 Northern Illinois 95.3 96.0 95.1 95.5
81 Appalachian St. 94.5 96.0 95.8 95.4
82 U C L A 96.2 96.0 93.2 95.1
83 Akron 94.4 95.8 94.8 95.0
84 Louisiana Tech 93.6 96.1 94.8 94.8
85 Ohio U 93.9 95.1 94.7 94.6
86 Tulane 94.3 94.6 93.9 94.3
87 Cincinnati 93.2 94.8 93.2 93.7
88 Air Force 93.3 93.4 92.8 93.2
89 Eastern Michigan 92.3 93.6 92.9 92.9
90 Illinois 93.0 92.9 92.0 92.6
91 Troy 90.9 92.2 92.3 91.8
92 Western Michigan 90.9 92.5 91.7 91.7
93 Tulsa 91.3 90.1 91.8 91.1
94 Nevada 91.1 90.9 90.9 91.0
95 SMU 91.5 90.6 90.4 90.8
96 U N L V 90.0 91.6 90.5 90.7
97 Arkansas St. 89.6 91.0 91.4 90.7
98 Miami (O) 89.0 90.7 89.7 89.8
99 U A B 88.9 91.1 89.1 89.7
100 Middle Tennessee 89.0 90.2 89.9 89.7
101 Rutgers 90.5 89.6 88.6 89.6
102 Florida Int’l. 87.5 91.8 88.3 89.2
103 New Mexico 86.9 88.8 87.2 87.6
104 Georgia Southern 86.3 87.7 86.6 86.9
105 UL-Monroe 86.7 86.2 87.3 86.8
106 Oregon St. 88.0 85.7 86.5 86.7
107 East Carolina 85.9 85.1 85.0 85.3
108 Central Michigan 84.0 86.7 84.4 85.0
109 W. Kentucky 83.1 86.3 84.2 84.5
110 Massachusetts 83.2 85.2 84.4 84.3
111 Colo. State 84.0 84.8 83.9 84.2
112 Southern Miss. 82.5 85.7 83.0 83.8
113 Bowling Green 83.4 83.4 83.6 83.5
114 Ball St. 82.1 84.5 81.6 82.7
115 South Alabama 81.2 83.3 82.0 82.2
116 U T S A 79.4 83.8 80.2 81.2
117 Old Dominion 79.8 83.8 79.6 81.1
118 Hawaii 80.6 82.9 79.4 81.0
119 Liberty 81.2 79.5 81.4 80.7
120 Kent St. 80.4 81.4 79.6 80.5
121 Louisiana 79.5 81.4 80.5 80.5
122 Coastal Carolina 78.8 81.8 79.4 80.0
123 Georgia St. 77.1 79.7 77.9 78.2
124 San Jose St. 78.5 79.3 76.7 78.2
125 Connecticut 78.1 78.3 76.8 77.7
126 Charlotte 75.0 77.5 75.3 75.9
127 N. Mexico St. 74.7 76.9 74.6 75.4
128 Texas State 70.8 73.9 70.2 71.6
129 Rice 70.6 73.6 69.3 71.2
130 U T E P 68.8 71.8 68.2 69.6

 

PiRate Rating By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 113.0 112.8 113.1 113.0 1-0 2-0
South Florida 98.3 101.0 99.0 99.4 0-0 3-0
Temple 97.2 97.2 97.6 97.3 0-0 1-2
Cincinnati 93.2 94.8 93.2 93.7 0-0 3-0
East Carolina 85.9 85.1 85.0 85.3 0-0 1-1
Connecticut 78.1 78.3 76.8 77.7 0-1 1-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Memphis 105.0 107.3 106.3 106.2 0-1 2-1
Houston 102.1 102.9 102.3 102.4 0-0 2-1
Navy 95.5 98.3 95.2 96.4 1-0 2-1
Tulane 94.3 94.6 93.9 94.3 0-0 1-2
Tulsa 91.3 90.1 91.8 91.1 0-0 1-2
SMU 91.5 90.6 90.4 90.8 0-0 0-3
AAC Averages 95.5 96.1 95.4 95.6
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 129.8 126.7 130.5 129.0 0-0 3-0
Boston College 118.2 115.3 118.4 117.3 1-0 3-0
N. Carolina St. 113.6 113.0 113.2 113.3 0-0 2-0
Syracuse 109.0 107.6 108.1 108.2 1-0 3-0
Wake Forest 108.7 106.4 106.3 107.1 0-1 2-1
Florida St. 105.8 104.9 105.1 105.2 0-2 1-2
Louisville 100.4 100.4 99.8 100.2 0-0 2-1
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami 117.9 116.3 117.7 117.3 0-0 2-1
Virginia Tech 116.5 116.0 116.4 116.3 1-0 2-0
Duke 115.6 113.2 115.2 114.7 0-0 3-0
Georgia Tech 109.3 108.3 108.7 108.8 0-1 1-2
Pittsburgh 102.3 102.0 101.7 102.0 1-0 2-1
Virginia 102.2 102.7 101.1 102.0 0-0 2-1
N. Carolina 100.6 99.5 99.8 100.0 0-0 0-2
ACC Averages 110.7 109.5 110.2 110.1
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 122.6 121.3 123.2 122.4 1-0 3-0
Oklahoma St. 116.4 114.6 116.7 115.9 0-0 3-0
T C U 114.2 113.3 113.2 113.5 0-0 2-1
West Virginia 112.0 111.2 111.4 111.5 0-0 2-0
Texas 111.4 109.9 110.6 110.6 0-0 2-1
Iowa State 110.0 108.0 109.3 109.1 0-1 0-2
Kansas St. 105.5 104.1 104.5 104.7 0-0 2-1
Texas Tech 104.7 103.2 103.4 103.8 0-0 2-1
Baylor 102.3 100.1 101.7 101.4 0-0 2-1
Kansas 100.9 99.8 98.9 99.9 0-0 2-1
Big 12 Averages 110.0 108.5 109.3 109.3
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Ohio St. 128.7 126.2 129.3 128.1 1-0 3-0
Michigan 122.3 121.1 122.8 122.0 0-0 2-1
Penn St. 122.7 119.8 123.2 121.9 0-0 3-0
Michigan St. 122.6 120.3 122.3 121.8 0-0 1-1
Maryland 101.2 99.8 100.3 100.4 0-0 2-1
Indiana 99.1 98.5 98.8 98.8 0-0 3-0
Rutgers 90.5 89.6 88.6 89.6 0-1 1-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Wisconsin 117.0 114.3 116.6 116.0 0-0 2-1
Iowa 114.3 111.9 113.7 113.3 0-0 3-0
Northwestern 109.1 107.2 108.9 108.4 1-0 1-2
Minnesota 106.7 106.2 106.6 106.5 0-0 3-0
Purdue 105.0 103.3 104.3 104.2 0-1 0-3
Nebraska 98.4 96.9 96.0 97.1 0-0 0-2
Illinois 93.0 92.9 92.0 92.6 0-0 2-1
Big Ten Averages 109.3 107.7 108.8 108.6
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Atlantic 98.3 98.8 99.0 98.7 0-0 2-1
Marshall 94.6 97.5 95.8 96.0 0-0 2-0
Middle Tennessee 89.0 90.2 89.9 89.7 0-0 1-2
Florida Int’l. 87.5 91.8 88.3 89.2 1-0 2-1
W. Kentucky 83.1 86.3 84.2 84.5 0-0 0-3
Old Dominion 79.8 83.8 79.6 81.1 0-2 0-3
Charlotte 75.0 77.5 75.3 75.9 1-0 2-1
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
N. Texas 101.4 104.1 102.2 102.5 0-0 3-0
Louisiana Tech 93.6 96.1 94.8 94.8 0-0 2-0
U A B 88.9 91.1 89.1 89.7 0-0 2-1
Southern Miss. 82.5 85.7 83.0 83.8 0-0 1-1
U T S A 79.4 83.8 80.2 81.2 0-0 0-3
Rice 70.6 73.6 69.3 71.2 0-0 1-2
U T E P 68.8 71.8 68.2 69.6 0-0 0-3
CUSA Averages 85.2 88.0 85.7 86.3
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 119.4 115.8 117.8 117.6 x 3-0
BYU 102.2 102.8 102.9 102.6 x 2-1
Army 96.1 96.5 96.0 96.2 x 2-1
Massachusetts 83.2 85.2 84.4 84.3 x 1-3
Liberty 81.2 79.5 81.4 80.7 x 1-1
N. Mexico St. 74.7 76.9 74.6 75.4 x 0-4
Indep. Averages 92.8 92.8 92.9 92.8
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Buffalo 95.4 97.7 96.7 96.6 1-0 3-0
Akron 94.4 95.8 94.8 95.0 0-0 2-0
Ohio U 93.9 95.1 94.7 94.6 0-0 1-1
Miami (O) 89.0 90.7 89.7 89.8 0-0 0-3
Bowling Green 83.4 83.4 83.6 83.5 0-0 1-2
Kent St. 80.4 81.4 79.6 80.5 0-0 1-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 96.6 98.3 96.5 97.1 0-0 1-1
Northern Illinois 95.3 96.0 95.1 95.5 1-0 1-2
Eastern Michigan 92.3 93.6 92.9 92.9 0-1 2-1
Western Michigan 90.9 92.5 91.7 91.7 0-0 1-2
Central Michigan 84.0 86.7 84.4 85.0 0-1 0-3
Ball St. 82.1 84.5 81.6 82.7 0-0 1-2
MAC Averages 89.8 91.3 90.1 90.4
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Boise St. 113.5 112.7 113.9 113.4 0-0 2-1
Utah St. 103.5 105.0 105.1 104.5 0-0 2-1
Wyoming 96.6 96.5 96.4 96.5 0-0 2-2
Air Force 93.3 93.4 92.8 93.2 0-0 1-1
New Mexico 86.9 88.8 87.2 87.6 0-0 2-1
Colo. State 84.0 84.8 83.9 84.2 0-1 1-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 110.0 108.3 109.9 109.4 0-0 2-1
San Diego St. 100.2 100.7 101.4 100.7 0-0 2-1
Nevada 91.1 90.9 90.9 91.0 0-0 2-1
U N L V 90.0 91.6 90.5 90.7 0-0 2-1
Hawaii 80.6 82.9 79.4 81.0 1-0 3-1
San Jose St. 78.5 79.3 76.7 78.2 0-0 0-3
MWC Averages 94.0 94.6 94.0 94.2
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 126.8 124.4 129.1 126.7 1-0 2-1
Stanford 120.0 117.6 120.5 119.4 1-0 3-0
Oregon 111.4 111.5 112.1 111.7 0-0 3-0
Washington St. 109.1 108.2 108.0 108.4 0-0 3-0
California 109.4 106.6 109.0 108.3 0-0 3-0
Oregon St. 88.0 85.7 86.5 86.7 0-0 1-2
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 111.1 109.3 112.0 110.8 0-1 2-1
U S C 108.9 107.0 108.1 108.0 0-1 1-2
Arizona St. 107.3 105.9 106.6 106.6 0-0 2-1
Colorado 101.1 102.7 102.4 102.1 0-0 3-0
Arizona 101.2 99.5 101.1 100.6 0-0 1-2
U C L A 96.2 96.0 93.2 95.1 0-0 0-3
Pac-12 Averages 107.5 106.2 107.4 107.0
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 132.2 128.4 133.6 131.4 1-0 3-0
Missouri 114.5 113.0 115.7 114.4 0-0 3-0
S. Carolina 112.3 111.1 111.7 111.7 0-1 1-1
Florida 110.8 109.1 111.1 110.3 0-1 2-1
Kentucky 108.8 107.6 108.5 108.3 1-0 3-0
Vanderbilt 102.6 103.4 102.9 103.0 0-0 2-1
Tennessee 96.9 97.3 96.1 96.8 0-0 2-1
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 139.3 137.2 141.2 139.2 1-0 3-0
Mississippi St. 123.8 121.1 124.4 123.1 0-0 3-0
Auburn 121.4 120.2 123.6 121.7 0-1 2-1
L S U 114.1 114.0 115.2 114.4 1-0 3-0
Texas A&M 113.4 112.2 113.8 113.1 0-0 2-1
Ole Miss 104.0 103.7 104.8 104.1 0-1 2-1
Arkansas 99.7 97.0 98.0 98.2 0-0 1-2
SEC Averages 113.8 112.5 114.3 113.6
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 94.5 96.0 95.8 95.4 0-0 1-1
Troy 90.9 92.2 92.3 91.8 0-0 2-1
Georgia Southern 86.3 87.7 86.6 86.9 0-0 2-1
Coastal Carolina 78.8 81.8 79.4 80.0 0-0 2-1
Georgia St. 77.1 79.7 77.9 78.2 0-0 1-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 89.6 91.0 91.4 90.7 0-0 2-1
UL-Monroe 86.7 86.2 87.3 86.8 0-0 2-1
South Alabama 81.2 83.3 82.0 82.2 1-0 1-2
Louisiana 79.5 81.4 80.5 80.5 0-0 1-1
Texas State 70.8 73.9 70.2 71.6 0-1 1-2
Sun Belt Averages 83.5 85.3 84.3 84.4

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 113.8 112.5 114.3 113.6
2 ACC 110.7 109.5 110.2 110.1
3 B12 110.0 108.5 109.3 109.3
4 BTEN 109.3 107.7 108.8 108.6
5 P-12 107.5 106.2 107.4 107.0
6 AAC 95.5 96.1 95.4 95.6
7 MWC 94.0 94.6 94.0 94.2
8 IND 92.8 92.8 92.9 92.8
9 MAC 89.8 91.3 90.1 90.4
10 CUSA 85.2 88.0 85.7 86.3
11 SUN 83.5 85.3 84.3 84.4

This Week’s Top 5 Group of 5 Teams

  1. South Florida
  2. Central Florida
  3. North Texas
  4. Cincinnati
  5. Buffalo

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA San Diego St. [Northern Illinois]
Cure AAC SBC Central Florida Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Fresno St. Arizona St.
Camellia MAC SBC Akron Georgia Southern
New Orleans CUSA SBC UAB UL-Monroe
Boca Raton MAC CUSA Marshall Western Michigan
Frisco AAC MAC [Utah] Toledo
Gasparilla AAC CUSA South Florida Florida Atlantic
Bahamas AAC CUSA Houston Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Buffalo Utah St.
Birmingham AAC SEC Memphis Vanderbilt
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 Navy [BYU]
Dollar General MAC SBC Ohio U Troy
Hawaii CUSA MWC Louisiana Tech Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA [Army] Southern Miss.
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Wake Forest Indiana
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Texas Tech California
Independence ACC SEC Virginia [Coastal Carolina]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Boston College Wisconsin
Texas Big 12 SEC Iowa St. South Carolina
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Duke Missouri
Camping World ACC Big 12 Notre Dame West Virginia
Arizona MWC SBC Boise St. Arkansas St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 TCU Washington
Belk ACC SEC North Carolina St. Auburn
Peach At-large At-large Virginia Tech Oklahoma St.
Military AAC ACC Cincinnati Pittsburgh
Sun ACC Pac-12 Syracuse Colorado
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Minnesota USC
Liberty Big 12 SEC Texas Kentucky
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa Stanford
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Michigan Florida
Outback Big Ten SEC Michigan St. LSU
Fiesta At-large At-large Oregon North Texas
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Miami (Fla.) Texas A&M
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. Washington St.
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma Mississippi St.
PLAYOFFS
Cotton FBS PLAYOFF Penn St. Georgia
Orange FBS PLAYOFF Alabama Clemson
Champ. Game Winners Alabama Georgia
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Sweet 16 Games on TV This Week

All times given are Eastern Daylight

Friday Night

Washington State at USC  10:30 PM  on ESPN

USC has dropped consecutive road games, the most previous not being all that close.  With a true freshman quarterback and his top receiver also being a true freshman, can the Trojans score enough points against the Air Raid offense of the Pirate, Mike Leach.

Washington State is 3-0 but has yet to face strong competition, but if the Cougars can win this game, they become a contender for the Pac-12 North Division title.

Saturday
12:00 Noon

Georgia at Missouri  ESPN

Georgia should win this game by playing smashmouth football against a Missouri defense that just gave up a lot of points and yards against Purdue.  However, the Tigers may have overlooked an 0-2 team.  Still, Georgia looks invincible at least until they travel to the Bayou later in the season.

Minnesota at Maryland  BTN

All of a sudden, the Big Ten West looks open for more than one team.  Minnesota is a silent 3-0, and a win in College Park could find the Gophers ranked and in contention for the division flag.

Maryland’s win over Texas would have meant a lot more had they not gotten their Terrapin shell handed to them by lowly Temple.  The Terps must win this game to have any chance at becoming bowl eligible.

Notre Dame at Wake Forest ABC

Notre Dame is a very soft 3-0, and they have played all three games at home.  This will be the Irish’s first road game and first ACC opponent of the season.  They play at a Wake Forest team that made a valiant comeback that came up a bit short against Boston College.  Notre Dame must go 12-0 or 11-1 with a lot of help to have any chance of making the playoffs.

3:30 PM

Clemson at Georgia Tech ABC

We are not going to tell you that this game should be close, but…..

Clemson has not really fired on all cylinders yet.  It can be hard to play two separate offensive game plans every week, and the two quarterback system may prove to be a liability at some point.

The Tigers have been upset both of the last two years in conference play.  We don’t expect this to be one of those games, but we are anxious to see how CU uses their two QBs in conference play.

Georgia Tech’s multiple option offense should be forced into more passing situations against the top defensive front in the nation, but should Clemson’s offense not sustain a good number of drives, the Tigers may give up some points in the second half.

Kansas St. at West Virginia ESPN

West Virginia missed Saturday’s game, and so far teams that had games cancelled have not been all that sharp.  They face a Kansas State team that is going to need to pick up an upset or two to reach bowl eligibility this year.  The Mountaineers need to pick up a statement win in conference play to strike fear in the Oklahoma’s, Oklahoma State’s, and TCU’s.

Texas A&M at Alabama CBS

This week, the Crimson Tide have done something that has not been done in 17 years.  At the end of the 2001 season, National Champion Miami of Florida rated 9.6 points ahead of #2 Oregon.  Alabama is the first team since to be more than a touchdown ahead of the number two team in our ratings.

At this point, we’re not sure the Buffalo Bills could beat Alabama at New Era Field in the snow.  Alabama looked as good if not better than the 1995 Nebraska team that won the national championship with ease.

What makes this game so inviting is that Texas A&M played Clemson a couple weeks ago.  In that game, the Aggies looked like they belonged on the same field with a top 10 team.  If Alabama makes this another laugher, that will tell us all just how far ahead of another potential playoff team they have advanced.

TCU at Texas Fox

These teams don’t particularly care much for each other, and with TCU coming into this game with doubts, while the Longhorns are sky high, it should be quite interesting.  Prior last Saturday, TCU looked like a cinch to win this game according to the ratings.  After the ‘Horns clobbered USC and TCU blew up in a four-minute stretch against Ohio State, this game becomes a toss-up in the ratings.

What’s up for grabs in this game is a chance to become a key contender for the number two spot in the conference standings, which in the Big 12 will get you in the Conference Championship Game.

4 PM

South Carolina at Vanderbilt SEC

South Carolina is another team that had a game cancelled unexpectedly due to the weather.  They have not played since Georgia mutilated them in Columbia.  At this point, the Gamecocks are playing for a Citrus Bowl bid, as Georgia is not going to lose two conference games.

Vanderbilt did everything but outscore Notre Dame in South Bend, Saturday.  The Commodores outgained the Irish by 40 yards, but they suffered a loss of at least 11 points due not being able to hang onto the ball.  If the Commodores can come out with a chip on their shoulders, this can be a close game that could be decided in the final minutes.  However, as long time Commodore fans know, Vanderbilt has been known to come out flat and not show up the week after they experienced a moral victory.

7 PM

Florida at Tennessee ESPN

The winner of this game will earn a bowl bid this year.  That’s more than enough to make a game important, but this is the first chance for two new coaches to get the upper hand over their rival in this big rivalry game.

Tennessee’s defense has looked strong the last two weeks against an FCS team and the #130 FBS team.  How will they look against a better than average SEC offense?  Better yet, if you can only score 24 points at home against UTEP, how are you going to score enough to beat the Gators?

Mississippi St. at Kentucky ESPN2

One of these two teams will be 4-0 after this game, almost assuredly ranked in the top 25, and a serious contender for the Citrus or even Sugar Bowl should Alabama and Georgia both make the playoffs.

The win over Florida in Gainesville is looking mighty good for the Wildcats, while Mississippi State looked a lot like Penn State in their last two games, which shouldn’t surprise many people that know that Coach Joe Moorhead was the offensive coordinator in Happy Valley.

Texas Tech at Oklahoma St. FS1

After getting pasted by Ole Miss in week one, Texas Tech coach Kliff Kingsbury was square in the middle of a hot seat in Lubbock.  The 63-point showing in a win over Houston has cooled the seat a bit, but the Red Raiders have an uphill climb to find four more wins and get bowl eligible.  Anything short of a bowl bid would most likely be the end of the Kingsbury era.

Oklahoma State looked like a playoff contender in their comfortable win over Boise State.  The Cowboys look like the top contender to their rival Sooners in the Big 12, and if they slow down the Red Raiders and hold them to 28 points or less, while winning by double digits, OSU could move on to a 9-0 start when they go to Norman in November.

 

7:30 PM

Michigan St. at Indiana BTN

Michigan State has been a major disappointment to start this season.  The Spartans had the most experience returning in FBS football this year, off a team that won 10 games last year.  A much closer than expected opening win over Utah State was followed by a loss at Arizona State.  After a week off, they now find themselves travelling into a potential ambush in Bloomington.

Indiana is 3-0 for the first time since 2015 and just the second time in the last nine seasons.  The Hoosiers look like a potential bowl eligible squad, and they basically need to pull off one conference upset to get to 3-6 in the league and guarantee six wins.  Their rebuilt defense is looking strong enough to keep them in this game, and if MSU hasn’t snapped out of their funk, the Hoosiers could surprise and move to 4-0.  The last three times IU began 4-0, they made it to a bowl game.

8:00 PM

Stanford at Oregon ABC

This may be the top game of the weekend.  The winner of this game will be the co-contender with Washington and possibly Washington State for the Pac-12 North flag.  Neither team has been exceptionally strong so far, and Stanford’s win over USC lost a lot of its oomph when USC was clobbered by Texas.  The key to this game may be the health of Bryce Love.  Love did not play against UC-Davis after rushing for 136 yards against USC.  Last year, he torched Oregon with 147 yards and two touchdowns.

Oregon’s defense against the run has looked solid this year, while the Ducks’ passing game behind Justin Herbert has been spectacular at times.  The Ducks have had this game circled on their schedule since Spring practice.  The Cardinal have embarrassed the Ducks with consecutive slaughters the last two seasons, and the Ducks will be inspired to shut down Stanford’s running game and force the Cardinal out of their game plan.

8:30 PM

Wisconsin at Iowa Fox

If Wisconsin continues to look lifeless on offense for 20 minutes per game, the Badgers are not going to win the Big Ten West.  They are in a precarious position having to come to Iowa City for a prime time game, where the Hawkeyes enjoy an incredible home field advantage.

Iowa rarely puts up flashy offensive yardage numbers.  But, when you limit opponents to 42 rushing yards and 209 total yards per game, you can win by scoring 24 points and gaining 380 total yards.  They gang tackle and rarely let an opponent get many yards after contact.

10:30 PM

Arizona St. at Washington ESPN

The late game on ESPN is usually exciting, because it involves two teams with wide open offenses from the West Coast.  Also, frequently, these teams cannot play a lot of defense.  This mold was broken Saturday night, when in Washington’s win over Utah in Salt Lake City, the Huskies looked more like their 1959 and 1960 teams that went 10-1.  UW gained just 330 yards and gave up 261 to the Utes.

Arizona State did nothing on the ground against San Diego State, and if the Sun Devils don’t correct this Saturday night, they will get pasted in Seattle.  The ASU passing game cannot pass for 300 yards against the Huskies’ secondary, so if UW can limit ASU’s running game, this could be another one of those 1960-style defensive victories.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 11, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 2: September 13-17, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Week Number: 2
Date of Games: September 13-17
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Cincinnati Baltimore -0.7 -1.0 -1.0 43.5
Washington Indianapolis 10.9 12.3 11.5 44.5
Atlanta Carolina 4.7 4.9 4.5 42
Green Bay Minnesota -1.1 0.1 -1.4 42
Buffalo L.A. Chargers -5.5 -6.3 -5.7 39
Tennessee Houston 0.2 0.4 0.1 46
Pittsburgh Kansas City 4.4 4.2 3.4 46.5
N.Y. Jets Miami 5.1 5.8 5.2 45
Tampa Bay Philadelphia -2.3 -3.4 -1.3 46
New Orleans Cleveland 12.7 12.8 12.4 46.5
L.A. Rams Arizona 11.9 13.9 12.9 45
San Francisco Detroit 3.7 4.4 3.8 49
Jacksonville New England 0.8 -0.3 1.0 41.5
Denver Oakland 6.8 6.0 6.1 42.5
Dallas N.Y. Giants 5.3 5.4 5.0 39.5
Chicago Seattle 1.2 1.1 1.9 40.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 105.3 106.1 105.3 105.6 20 1-0
N. Y. Jets 99.8 99.8 100.2 99.9 23.5 1-0
Miami 97.8 97.0 98.0 97.6 21.5 1-0
Buffalo 92.2 92.1 92.0 92.1 18 0-1
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 105.4 105.4 104.7 105.2 22 0-0-1
Baltimore 102.3 103.1 102.6 102.7 23 1-0
Cincinnati 98.6 99.1 98.6 98.8 20.5 1-0
Cleveland 95.0 94.9 95.5 95.1 22 0-0-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 103.1 102.9 103.3 103.1 21.5 1-0
Houston 99.2 99.2 98.9 99.1 24.5 0-1
Tennessee 96.9 97.0 96.5 96.8 21.5 0-1
Indianapolis 93.6 91.4 93.1 92.7 22.5 0-1
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 104.0 104.3 104.3 104.2 24.5 1-0
LA Chargers 100.6 101.4 100.7 100.9 21 0-1
Denver 98.6 98.3 98.0 98.3 21.5 1-0
Oakland 94.8 95.3 94.9 95.0 21 0-1
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 102.7 103.3 102.3 102.8 23 1-0
Washington 101.5 100.6 101.6 101.2 22 1-0
Dallas 99.5 99.5 99.2 99.4 20 0-1
N.Y. Giants 97.2 97.1 97.2 97.2 19.5 0-1
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Minnesota 104.5 104.5 104.4 104.5 19.5 1-0
Green Bay 100.4 101.6 100.0 100.6 22.5 1-0
Chicago 99.0 98.6 99.6 99.1 18.5 0-1
Detroit 98.1 97.9 98.0 98.0 25.5 0-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 104.7 104.7 104.9 104.8 24.5 0-1
Atlanta 104.2 104.1 104.4 104.2 21 0-1
Carolina 102.1 101.6 102.3 102.0 21 1-0
Tampa Bay 97.4 96.9 97.9 97.4 23 1-0
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 105.7 106.8 106.4 106.3 25.5 1-0
Seattle 100.9 100.5 100.7 100.7 22 0-1
San Francisco 98.8 99.3 98.8 99.0 23.5 0-1
Arizona 96.3 95.5 95.9 95.9 19.5 0-1

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 New England
2 Kansas City
3 Jacksonville
4 Baltimore
5 Pittsburgh
6 New York Jets
NFC Seeding
1 L.A. Rams
2 Minnesota
3 Philadelphia
4 Carolina
5 Green Bay
6 Washington
Wildcard Round
N.Y. Jets over Jacksonville
Baltimore over Pittsburgh
Philadelphia over Washington
Green Bay over Carolina
Divisional Round
New England over N.Y. Jets
Baltimore over Kansas City
L.A. Rams over Green Bay
Minnesota over Philadelphia
Conference Championship
New England over Baltimore
L.A. Rams over Minnesota
Super Bowl 53
L.A. Rams over New England

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 10, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 3

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Thursday, September 13
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Wake Forest Boston College -6.6 -5.7 -9.3

 

Friday September 14
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Memphis Georgia St. 29.4 28.6 29.4

 

Saturday September 15
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Tennessee UTEP 31.7 28.9 31.8
Indiana Ball St. 16.8 13.2 16.6
Maryland Temple 15.9 14.3 14.8
Florida Int’l. Massachusetts -2.0 0.7 -2.7
Toledo Miami (Fla.) -17.1 -13.1 -16.6
Army Hawaii 20.9 19.0 22.6
Penn St. Kent St. 42.6 38.1 43.4
North Carolina Central Florida -9.3 -10.2 -10.2
Charlotte Old Dominion -4.0 -6.0 -3.9
Syracuse Florida St. 0.5 -0.4 -0.3
Iowa St. Oklahoma -9.6 -10.3 -10.9
Nebraska Troy 13.5 10.4 9.3
Kansas Rutgers 3.3 3.1 3.2
Virginia Tech East Carolina 33.5 33.8 34.3
Pittsburgh Georgia Tech -6.6 -5.9 -7.0
Notre Dame Vanderbilt 22.1 17.4 20.3
Virginia Ohio U 9.9 8.8 7.1
Michigan SMU 35.4 35.3 37.8
Appalachian St. Southern Miss. 14.8 13.1 15.6
Oklahoma St. Boise St. 0.4 -1.0 -0.5
Wisconsin BYU 25.2 21.6 24.3
North Carolina St. West Virginia 4.6 4.9 4.8
Minnesota Miami (O) 20.5 17.7 19.3
Auburn LSU 13.4 11.8 15.3
Illinois South Florida -1.7 -5.1 -3.8
Northern Illinois Central Michigan 15.6 13.4 15.4
Clemson Georgia Southern 48.6 44.0 48.9
New Mexico St. New Mexico -8.7 -8.0 -8.3
UAB Tulane -5.5 -3.2 -4.9
Baylor Duke -9.8 -9.6 -9.8
Florida Colorado St. 28.6 25.0 28.6
Texas Tech Houston 3.6 0.6 1.0
Kansas St. UTSA 29.8 23.4 28.0
Arkansas North Texas 12.0 6.3 9.5
Oregon San Jose St. 41.4 40.7 43.9
Buffalo Eastern Michigan 5.3 6.4 5.9
Nevada Oregon St. 6.5 9.3 8.2
Ole Miss Alabama -23.4 -21.5 -24.4
Tulsa Arkansas St. 7.6 4.6 6.5
South Alabama Texas St. 13.7 12.6 15.4
Georgia Middle Tennessee 45.6 39.6 46.0
South Carolina Marshall 20.5 16.5 18.7
Purdue Missouri -7.4 -7.5 -10.0
Northwestern Akron 25.6 21.8 25.4
Mississippi St. Louisiana 46.8 41.6 46.4
Texas A&M UL-Monroe 28.8 27.9 28.3
Louisville Western Kentucky 23.3 19.7 21.5
Texas USC -0.4 -0.2 -0.8
TCU Ohio St. -11.5 -9.4 -13.1
Utah Washington -12.5 -11.6 -14.1
UCLA Fresno St. -6.2 -4.8 -8.3
San Diego St. Arizona St. -7.1 -5.0 -5.3

 

FBS vs. FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
Utah St. Tennessee Tech 38.6
Kentucky Murray St. 36.1
Connecticut Rhode Island 10.2
Stanford UC-Davis 36.9
Navy Lehigh 29.8
Wyoming Wofford 17.5
Bowling Green Eastern Kentucky 13.5
Colorado New Hampshire 30.3
California Idaho St. 32.1
Liberty Norfolk St. 18.5
Florida Atlantic Bethune-Cookman 38.5
Coastal Carolina Campbell 17.7
Cincinnati Alabama A&M 36.0
Western Michigan Delaware St. 39.7
Iowa Northern Iowa 32.2
Washington St. Eastern Wash.