PiRate College Football Ratings: September 16, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Thursday	September 19
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Tulane	Houston	7.1	6.3	4.7

 

Friday	September 20
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
La. Tech	Florida Int’l.	3.9	3.8	3.6
USC	Utah	-6.3	-3.8	-6.1
Boise St.	Air Force	10.8	9.0	10.4

 

Saturday	September 21
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Florida	Tennessee	16.0	13.6	16.9
Indiana	Connecticut	35.9	29.9	35.8
Rutgers	Boston College	-5.2	-5.0	-6.0
Syracuse	Western Mich.	6.2	6.6	5.8
Alabama	Southern Miss.	43.5	42.0	44.3
Iowa St.	UL-Monroe	22.3	21.8	21.9
Northwestern	Michigan St.	-3.7	-4.1	-5.0
Ole Miss	California	-2.4	-3.0	-4.6
Vanderbilt	LSU	-21.1	-19.5	-21.0
Wisconsin	Michigan	0.5	2.3	0.1
Massachusetts	Coastal Car.	-13.5	-12.2	-13.4
Ohio	Louisiana	3.7	2.4	5.6
Akron	Troy	-14.3	-14.3	-13.6
Buffalo	Temple	-15.1	-13.4	-15.5
Florida St.	Louisville	9.4	10.1	9.9
North Carolina	Appy St.	-0.4	2.1	1.6
Ohio St.	Miami (O)	40.6	40.8	40.9
Pittsburgh	Central Fla.	-3.1	-2.6	-4.9
TCU	SMU	4.3	8.2	3.9
Texas A&M	Auburn	5.0	5.3	4.6
Tulsa	Wyoming	0.0	-1.8	0.1
UAB	S. Alabama	12.0	10.4	13.6
BYU	Washington	-8.3	-7.7	-9.2
Kent St.	Bowling Green	11.4	11.5	11.7
Miami (Fla.)	Central Mich.	35.7	33.8	36.6
Mississippi St.	Kentucky	10.0	6.9	10.7
Missouri	South Carolina	5.7	4.7	6.0
Kansas	West Virginia	-5.7	-4.3	-5.5
New Mexico	New Mexico St.	6.4	7.5	6.1
N. Carolina St.	Ball St.	18.8	19.3	19.7
Virginia	Old Dominion	32.6	32.7	32.5
Rice	Baylor	-31.7	-30.5	-32.3
Stanford	Oregon	-8.2	-9.2	-9.5
Texas St.	Georgia St.	-0.5	-0.9	0.4
Clemson	Charlotte	48.5	44.4	48.8
Arkansas	San Jose St.	18.6	17.4	18.9
North Texas	UTSA	18.1	15.0	19.3
Texas	Oklahoma St.	5.1	4.5	5.3
Georgia	Notre Dame	9.3	9.6	9.7
Illinois	Nebraska	-6.4	-6.9	-7.0
UTEP	Nevada	-21.9	-18.1	-21.3
Arizona St.	Colorado	10.6	9.8	11.1
Colorado St.	Toledo	-9.1	-5.3	-10.4
San Diego St.	Utah St.	-5.4	-2.2	-6.9
Washington St.	UCLA	16.8	16.4	18.3

 

FBS vs. FCS
Home	Visitor		PiRate
Army	Morgan St.		41
Wake Forest	Elon		30
Eastern Michigan	Central Conn.		31
Florida Atlantic	Wagner		35
Liberty	Hampton		29
East Carolina	William & Mary		16
Arkansas St.	Southern Illinois		22
Fresno St.	Sacramento St.		30
Hawaii	Central Arkansas		20

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	135.9	132.3	137.0	135.0
2	Clemson	134.5	131.2	135.4	133.7
3	Ohio St.	128.7	127.1	129.2	128.3
4	Georgia	127.5	125.8	128.1	127.1
5	L S U	126.0	123.3	124.8	124.7
6	Oklahoma	122.3	121.4	122.2	122.0
7	Notre Dame	121.2	119.2	121.4	120.6
8	Michigan	119.6	117.5	119.9	119.0
9	Florida	119.9	117.1	119.1	118.7
10	Texas A&M	119.4	117.8	118.3	118.5
11	Wisconsin	117.1	116.8	117.0	117.0
12	Oregon	116.2	116.2	117.3	116.6
13	Auburn	117.4	115.5	116.8	116.6
14	Utah	116.5	114.8	116.7	116.0
15	Michigan St.	116.1	115.6	116.3	116.0
16	Penn St.	116.4	115.3	116.0	115.9
17	Iowa	115.7	113.7	115.8	115.0
18	Missouri	114.9	112.3	115.0	114.1
19	Washington	113.6	113.1	114.7	113.8
20	Mississippi St.	115.0	110.7	114.4	113.4
21	Washington St.	112.8	112.0	113.1	112.6
22	Central Florida	112.1	111.3	113.5	112.3
23	Texas	112.3	112.3	112.2	112.3
24	Baylor	111.9	112.1	111.6	111.9
25	Kansas St.	111.8	111.5	111.8	111.7
26	South Carolina	112.2	110.6	112.0	111.6
27	Miami (Fla.)	110.4	109.5	111.5	110.5
28	Oklahoma St.	110.2	110.9	109.9	110.3
29	Iowa St.	110.2	110.4	109.9	110.2
30	Northwestern	109.9	109.0	108.8	109.2
31	Virginia	108.9	109.4	109.1	109.1
32	Minnesota	109.4	108.7	108.0	108.7
33	Maryland	109.1	108.5	108.3	108.6
34	California	107.6	107.5	108.9	108.0
35	U S C	107.1	108.1	107.6	107.6
36	Kentucky	108.0	106.8	106.7	107.2
37	Nebraska	106.7	108.0	106.3	107.0
38	Arizona St.	107.0	106.2	107.6	107.0
39	T C U	105.2	108.8	105.7	106.6
40	Utah St.	106.3	105.1	107.7	106.3
41	Indiana	107.3	105.4	106.0	106.2
42	Tennessee	106.8	106.5	105.2	106.2
43	Boise St.	106.1	105.4	106.4	106.0
44	Pittsburgh	106.0	105.6	105.6	105.7
45	Purdue	105.5	105.5	105.0	105.3
46	Texas Tech	105.6	105.8	104.6	105.3
47	Memphis	105.0	104.8	106.1	105.3
48	Duke	105.2	104.7	105.1	105.0
49	Syracuse	105.2	104.6	105.0	104.9
50	Cincinnati	105.1	103.5	105.2	104.6
51	Stanford	105.0	104.0	104.8	104.6
52	West Virginia	104.6	104.2	104.2	104.3
53	Appalachian St.	105.2	103.3	104.4	104.3
54	Wake Forest	103.9	103.4	104.5	103.9
55	Virginia Tech	103.4	103.6	103.7	103.6
56	North Carolina	102.8	103.4	104.0	103.4
57	Temple	103.3	102.3	104.5	103.4
58	Arizona	102.5	102.7	102.8	102.7
59	Vanderbilt	103.4	102.2	102.3	102.6
60	North Carolina St.	102.4	102.3	102.9	102.5
61	Florida St.	102.4	102.7	102.2	102.5
62	BYU	102.3	102.4	102.5	102.4
63	SMU	102.0	101.5	102.8	102.1
64	Western Michigan	102.0	100.9	102.2	101.7
65	Ole Miss	102.3	101.5	101.3	101.7
66	Army	101.5	101.6	101.1	101.4
67	Boston College	100.5	100.3	100.9	100.6
68	Tulane	100.2	100.6	100.6	100.5
69	Fresno St.	100.0	100.6	100.7	100.4
70	Colorado	99.5	99.4	99.6	99.5
71	Air Force	98.2	99.4	99.1	98.9
72	San Diego St.	97.9	99.8	97.8	98.5
73	Arkansas	98.3	99.2	97.7	98.4
74	U C L A	98.9	98.5	97.8	98.4
75	Houston	96.1	97.3	98.9	97.4
76	Illinois	97.2	98.1	96.2	97.2
77	Ohio	96.6	95.6	97.9	96.7
78	Wyoming	95.4	97.6	96.0	96.3
79	Kansas	95.9	96.9	95.7	96.2
80	Georgia Southern	96.4	95.7	95.8	96.0
81	Hawaii	95.7	97.3	94.9	96.0
82	Louisiana	95.9	96.2	95.3	95.8
83	Louisville	96.1	95.7	95.3	95.7
84	Oregon St.	95.5	96.8	94.3	95.5
85	Georgia Tech	95.7	93.8	96.2	95.2
86	Southern Miss.	95.4	93.2	95.7	94.8
87	Troy	94.5	94.7	93.4	94.2
88	Marshall	93.4	92.9	94.6	93.6
89	Northern Illinois	93.7	92.6	93.8	93.4
90	North Texas	92.8	92.1	93.7	92.9
91	Tulsa	92.4	92.9	93.1	92.8
92	Toledo	92.1	92.3	93.2	92.5
93	Rutgers	92.3	92.3	91.9	92.2
94	Nevada	91.3	93.0	91.1	91.8
95	South Florida	91.0	92.0	91.3	91.4
96	Arkansas St.	91.3	91.4	91.0	91.2
97	Louisiana-Monroe	90.8	91.6	91.0	91.1
98	Eastern Michigan	90.7	91.1	91.4	91.1
99	Louisiana Tech	91.0	90.7	91.0	90.9
100	Navy	89.8	92.8	89.6	90.8
101	Florida Atlantic	90.4	89.7	91.1	90.4
102	Middle Tennessee	90.4	89.5	90.5	90.1
103	Florida Int’l.	89.6	89.3	89.9	89.6
104	Miami (Ohio)	90.1	88.3	90.4	89.6
105	Liberty	88.5	89.7	88.9	89.0
106	Charlotte	88.1	88.8	88.6	88.5
107	Western Kentucky	86.3	87.0	87.6	86.9
108	U A B	85.7	87.4	86.3	86.5
109	Ball St.	86.6	86.0	86.1	86.2
110	Buffalo	85.8	86.4	86.5	86.2
111	Georgia St.	85.9	87.2	84.9	86.0
112	U N L V	84.9	87.0	84.9	85.6
113	Kent St.	85.3	85.2	85.6	85.4
114	Coastal Carolina	84.1	85.3	83.2	84.2
115	Texas St.	82.9	83.8	82.8	83.2
116	San Jose St.	82.8	84.8	81.9	83.2
117	New Mexico	82.2	85.5	81.4	83.1
118	East Carolina	82.2	84.3	81.7	82.7
119	Colorado St.	79.9	84.0	79.8	81.2
120	Rice	78.7	80.1	77.8	78.9
121	Central Michigan	77.8	78.7	77.9	78.1
122	Old Dominion	77.8	78.2	78.0	78.0
123	Akron	77.7	78.0	77.3	77.6
124	Texas-San Antonio	76.7	79.2	76.4	77.4
125	New Mexico St.	76.8	79.0	76.4	77.4
126	South Alabama	75.2	78.5	74.2	76.0
127	Bowling Green	75.9	75.7	75.9	75.9
128	Connecticut	74.4	78.5	73.2	75.4
129	U T E P	66.9	72.4	67.3	68.8
130	Massachusetts	68.1	70.6	67.3	68.7

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	112.1	111.3	113.5	112.3	0-0	3-0
Cincinnati	105.1	103.5	105.2	104.6	0-0	2-1
Temple	103.3	102.3	104.5	103.4	0-0	2-0
South Florida	91.0	92.0	91.3	91.4	0-0	1-2
East Carolina	82.2	84.3	81.7	82.7	0-1	1-2
Connecticut	74.4	78.5	73.2	75.4	0-0	1-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	105.0	104.8	106.1	105.3	0-0	3-0
SMU	102.0	101.5	102.8	102.1	0-0	3-0
Tulane	100.2	100.6	100.6	100.5	0-0	2-1
Houston	96.1	97.3	98.9	97.4	0-0	1-2
Tulsa	92.4	92.9	93.1	92.8	0-0	1-2
Navy	89.8	92.8	89.6	90.8	1-0	2-0
AAC Averages	96.1	96.8	96.7	96.6
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	134.5	131.2	135.4	133.7	2-0	3-0
Syracuse	105.2	104.6	105.0	104.9	0-1	1-2
Wake Forest	103.9	103.4	104.5	103.9	0-0	3-0
North Carolina St.	102.4	102.3	102.9	102.5	0-0	2-1
Florida St.	102.4	102.7	102.2	102.5	0-1	1-2
Boston College	100.5	100.3	100.9	100.6	1-0	2-1
Louisville	96.1	95.7	95.3	95.7	0-0	2-1
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami (Fla.)	110.4	109.5	111.5	110.5	0-1	1-2
Virginia	108.9	109.4	109.1	109.1	2-0	3-0
Pittsburgh	106.0	105.6	105.6	105.7	0-1	1-2
Duke	105.2	104.7	105.1	105.0	0-0	2-1
Virginia Tech	103.4	103.6	103.7	103.6	0-1	2-1
North Carolina	102.8	103.4	104.0	103.4	1-0	2-1
Georgia Tech	95.7	93.8	96.2	95.2	0-1	1-2
ACC Averages	105.5	105.0	105.8	105.5
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	122.3	121.4	122.2	122.0	0-0	3-0
Texas	112.3	112.3	112.2	112.3	0-0	2-1
Baylor	111.9	112.1	111.6	111.9	0-0	2-0
Kansas St.	111.8	111.5	111.8	111.7	0-0	3-0
Oklahoma St.	110.2	110.9	109.9	110.3	0-0	3-0
Iowa St.	110.2	110.4	109.9	110.2	0-0	1-1
T C U	105.2	108.8	105.7	106.6	0-0	2-0
Texas Tech	105.6	105.8	104.6	105.3	0-0	2-1
West Virginia	104.6	104.2	104.2	104.3	0-0	2-1
Kansas	95.9	96.9	95.7	96.2	0-0	2-1
Big 12 Averages	109.0	109.4	108.8	109.1
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	128.7	127.1	129.2	128.3	1-0	3-0
Michigan	119.6	117.5	119.9	119.0	0-0	2-0
Michigan St.	116.1	115.6	116.3	116.0	0-0	2-1
Penn St.	116.4	115.3	116.0	115.9	0-0	3-0
Maryland	109.1	108.5	108.3	108.6	0-0	2-1
Indiana	107.3	105.4	106.0	106.2	0-1	2-1
Rutgers	92.3	92.3	91.9	92.2	0-1	1-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	117.1	116.8	117.0	117.0	0-0	2-0
Iowa	115.7	113.7	115.8	115.0	1-0	3-0
Northwestern	109.9	109.0	108.8	109.2	0-0	1-1
Minnesota	109.4	108.7	108.0	108.7	0-0	3-0
Nebraska	106.7	108.0	106.3	107.0	0-0	2-1
Purdue	105.5	105.5	105.0	105.3	0-0	1-2
Illinois	97.2	98.1	96.2	97.2	0-0	2-1
Big Ten Averages	110.8	110.1	110.3	110.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Marshall	93.4	92.9	94.6	93.6	0-0	2-1
Florida Atlantic	90.4	89.7	91.1	90.4	0-0	1-2
Middle Tennessee	90.4	89.5	90.5	90.1	0-0	1-2
Florida Int’l.	89.6	89.3	89.9	89.6	0-1	1-2
Charlotte	88.1	88.8	88.6	88.5	0-0	2-1
Western Kentucky	86.3	87.0	87.6	86.9	1-0	1-2
Old Dominion	77.8	78.2	78.0	78.0	0-0	1-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Southern Miss.	95.4	93.2	95.7	94.8	0-0	2-1
North Texas	92.8	92.1	93.7	92.9	0-0	1-2
Louisiana Tech	91.0	90.7	91.0	90.9	0-0	2-1
U A B	85.7	87.4	86.3	86.5	0-0	2-0
Rice	78.7	80.1	77.8	78.9	0-0	0-3
Texas-San Antonio	76.7	79.2	76.4	77.4	0-0	1-2
U T E P	66.9	72.4	67.3	68.8	0-0	1-1
CUSA Averages	85.9	86.5	86.3	86.2
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	121.2	119.2	121.4	120.6	x	2-0
BYU	102.3	102.4	102.5	102.4	x	2-1
Army	101.5	101.6	101.1	101.4	x	2-1
Liberty	88.5	89.7	88.9	89.0	x	1-2
New Mexico St.	76.8	79.0	76.4	77.4	x	0-3
Massachusetts	68.1	70.6	67.3	68.7	x	0-3
Indep. Averages	93.1	93.7	92.9	93.2
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio	96.6	95.6	97.9	96.7	0-0	1-2
Miami (Ohio)	90.1	88.3	90.4	89.6	0-0	1-2
Buffalo	85.8	86.4	86.5	86.2	0-0	1-2
Kent St.	85.3	85.2	85.6	85.4	0-0	1-2
Akron	77.7	78.0	77.3	77.6	0-1	0-3
Bowling Green	75.9	75.7	75.9	75.9	0-0	1-2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Western Michigan	102.0	100.9	102.2	101.7	0-0	2-1
Northern Illinois	93.7	92.6	93.8	93.4	0-0	1-2
Toledo	92.1	92.3	93.2	92.5	0-0	1-1
Eastern Michigan	90.7	91.1	91.4	91.1	0-0	2-1
Ball St.	86.6	86.0	86.1	86.2	0-0	1-2
Central Michigan	77.8	78.7	77.9	78.1	1-0	2-1
MAC Averages	87.9	87.6	88.2	87.9
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Utah St.	106.3	105.1	107.7	106.3	0-0	1-1
Boise St.	106.1	105.4	106.4	106.0	0-0	3-0
Air Force	98.2	99.4	99.1	98.9	0-0	2-0
Wyoming	95.4	97.6	96.0	96.3	0-0	3-0
New Mexico	82.2	85.5	81.4	83.1	0-0	1-1
Colorado St.	79.9	84.0	79.8	81.2	0-0	1-2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	100.0	100.6	100.7	100.4	0-0	0-2
San Diego St.	97.9	99.8	97.8	98.5	0-0	3-0
Hawaii	95.7	97.3	94.9	96.0	0-0	2-1
Nevada	91.3	93.0	91.1	91.8	0-0	2-1
U N L V	84.9	87.0	84.9	85.6	0-0	1-2
San Jose St.	82.8	84.8	81.9	83.2	0-0	1-1
MWC Averages	93.4	95.0	93.5	93.9
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Oregon	116.2	116.2	117.3	116.6	0-0	2-1
Washington	113.6	113.1	114.7	113.8	0-1	2-1
Washington St.	112.8	112.0	113.1	112.6	0-0	3-0
California	107.6	107.5	108.9	108.0	1-0	3-0
Stanford	105.0	104.0	104.8	104.6	0-1	1-2
Oregon St.	95.5	96.8	94.3	95.5	0-0	1-2
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	116.5	114.8	116.7	116.0	0-0	3-0
U S C	107.1	108.1	107.6	107.6	1-0	2-1
Arizona St.	107.0	106.2	107.6	107.0	0-0	3-0
Arizona	102.5	102.7	102.8	102.7	0-0	2-1
Colorado	99.5	99.4	99.6	99.5	0-0	2-1
U C L A	98.9	98.5	97.8	98.4	0-0	0-3
Pac-12 Averages	106.8	106.6	107.1	106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	127.5	125.8	128.1	127.1	1-0	3-0
Florida	119.9	117.1	119.1	118.7	1-0	3-0
Missouri	114.9	112.3	115.0	114.1	0-0	2-1
South Carolina	112.2	110.6	112.0	111.6	0-1	1-2
Kentucky	108.0	106.8	106.7	107.2	0-1	2-1
Tennessee	106.8	106.5	105.2	106.2	0-0	1-2
Vanderbilt	103.4	102.2	102.3	102.6	0-1	0-2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	135.9	132.3	137.0	135.0	1-0	3-0
L S U	126.0	123.3	124.8	124.7	0-0	3-0
Texas A&M	119.4	117.8	118.3	118.5	0-0	2-1
Auburn	117.4	115.5	116.8	116.6	0-0	3-0
Mississippi St.	115.0	110.7	114.4	113.4	0-0	2-1
Ole Miss	102.3	101.5	101.3	101.7	1-0	2-1
Arkansas	98.3	99.2	97.7	98.4	0-1	2-1
SEC Averages	114.8	113.0	114.2	114.0
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	105.2	103.3	104.4	104.3	0-0	2-0
Georgia Southern	96.4	95.7	95.8	96.0	0-0	1-2
Troy	94.5	94.7	93.4	94.2	0-0	1-1
Georgia St.	85.9	87.2	84.9	86.0	0-0	2-1
Coastal Carolina	84.1	85.3	83.2	84.2	0-0	2-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	95.9	96.2	95.3	95.8	0-0	2-1
Arkansas St.	91.3	91.4	91.0	91.2	0-0	1-2
Louisiana-Monroe	90.8	91.6	91.0	91.1	0-0	1-1
Texas St.	82.9	83.8	82.8	83.2	0-0	0-3
South Alabama	75.2	78.5	74.2	76.0	0-0	1-2
SBC Averages	90.2	90.8	89.6	90.2

 

Bowl & Playoff Projections

Once again this week, our fearless bowl projections show a lot of at-large teams needed to fill spots.  This week, the number is eight teams.  The Southeastern Conference is looking like an eight-bid league this year, and the league will most likely have 12 spots to fill.  With Alabama, Georgia, and LSU looking like teams that will play in New Year’s Six Bowls or Playoffs, and with Missouri not eligible for a bowl this year, there will probably be just five other bowl eligible teams in the premiere league in FBS Football.  Texas A&M, Florida, Mississippi State, Auburn, and Kentucky should become bowl eligible, but Ole Miss, Arkansas, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt don’t look like they have the strength to reach six wins.

The Big Ten might benefit by an extra bid if Indiana and Northwestern can get to 6-6.  Illinois, Rutgers, and Purdue look like they could supply a little fodder for the other 11 teams to pick up conference wins and allow 11 to become bowl eligible, when only 10 teams will have guaranteed bowl spots.  It figures that if any Big Ten team remains with at-large bowl bids available, the Big Ten will be at the top of the at-large lists.

The Mid-American, Mountain West, and Sun Belt Conferences look like they will have extra bowl eligible teams this year, but at this point of the season, some of these teams may be bowl eligible but not get an invitations.

Here’s our look at the Bowls and Playoffs this week.

 

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Miami (O)	Marshall
Frisco	AAC	At-large	Houston	[UAB]
Cure	AAC	SBC	[Western Michigan]	Troy
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	Southern Miss.	Fresno St.
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Memphis	Toledo
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	Arkansas St.
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Pac-12	Boise St.	Arizona
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	North Texas	Appalachian St.
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Navy	Charlotte
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC	BYU	SMU
Independence	ACC	SEC	Virginia Tech	[Army]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	North Carolina St.	Northwestern
Military	ACC	AAC	Pittsburgh	Temple
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	North Carolina	Maryland
Texas	Big 12	SEC	TCU	Mississippi St.
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	Arizona St.	Michigan
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	Iowa St.	[Hawaii]
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Virginia	Kansas St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Central Florida	California
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	Louisiana Tech	[Nevada]
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	Washington St.	Minnesota
Music City	SEC	ACC	[Indiana]	Syracuse
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Notre Dame	LSU
Belk	ACC	SEC	Wake Forest	Kentucky
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Miami (Fla.)	Oregon
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	[Wyoming]
Arizona	SBC	MWC	Louisiana	San Diego St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma St.	Washington
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Florida	Iowa
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	Texas A&M
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Wisconsin	Utah
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Georgia
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Cincinnati	[Duke]
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	Auburn	Michigan St.
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Eastern Michigan	Utah St.
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	Nebraska	Air Force
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Ohio	Georgia Southern
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	Alabama	Clemson
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	Ohio St.	Oklahoma
Champsionship	Fiesta	Peach	Alabama	Ohio St.
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 14: December 6-10, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Totals
Tennessee	Jacksonville	0.6	0.9	0.3	39
Kansas City	Baltimore	8.0	8.0	8.1	51
Houston	Indianapolis	5.0	6.3	5.7	49.5
Cleveland	Carolina	-2.1	-1.4	-1.4	49
Green Bay	Atlanta	2.6	3.3	2.6	49.5
Tampa Bay	New Orleans	-13.5	-13.5	-13.1	53.5
Buffalo	N.Y. Jets	0.2	0.7	0.6	41
Miami	New England	-8.2	-9.2	-9.0	44.5
Chicago	L.A. Rams	-0.6	-1.3	0.0	52.5
Washington	N.Y. Giants	1.8	0.9	1.4	44
San Francisco	Denver	-6.1	-6.1	-6.4	43
L.A. Chargers	Cincinnati	13.3	13.9	14.2	47.5
Arizona	Detroit	-1.3	-1.5	-1.0	43
Dallas	Philadelphia	4.1	4.3	4.4	41
Oakland	Pittsburgh	-12.8	-12.7	-12.6	46
Seattle	Minnesota	4.8	4.9	5.8	44

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings 

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	105.9	106.4	106.4	106.2	22.5	9-3
Miami	94.7	94.3	94.4	94.4	22	6-6
N. Y. Jets	94.6	94.1	94.1	94.3	23.5	3-9
Buffalo	92.9	92.8	92.7	92.8	17.5	4-8
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Pittsburgh	106.5	106.5	106.2	106.4	24.5	7-4-1
Baltimore	102.9	103.2	102.9	103.0	21	7-5
Cleveland	96.6	96.9	97.3	96.9	24.5	4-7-1
Cincinnati	94.3	94.4	93.9	94.2	23.5	5-7
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Houston	102.8	103.1	103.6	103.1	24	9-3
Indianapolis	100.3	99.3	100.3	100.0	25.5	6-6
Jacksonville	98.8	98.5	98.6	98.6	19	4-8
Tennessee	96.9	96.8	96.4	96.7	20	6-6
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	107.9	108.2	108.0	108.0	30	10-2
LA Chargers	104.5	105.3	105.1	105.0	24	9-3
Denver	101.8	101.7	101.7	101.7	20.5	6-6
Oakland	90.7	90.8	90.6	90.7	21.5	2-10
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	101.9	102.0	101.7	101.9	19	7-5
Philadelphia	100.7	100.7	100.4	100.6	22	6-6
N.Y. Giants	96.3	96.5	96.6	96.5	22	4-8
Washington	96.2	95.4	96.0	95.9	22	6-6
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Chicago	104.2	104.2	105.0	104.5	23.5	8-4
Minnesota	102.4	102.4	102.1	102.3	21	6-5-1
Green Bay	99.1	99.5	98.7	99.1	24	4-7-1
Detroit	98.4	98.2	97.8	98.1	24.5	4-8
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	112.5	112.6	112.8	112.6	27.5	10-2
Carolina	101.3	100.8	101.1	101.1	24.5	6-6
Atlanta	99.5	99.2	99.1	99.2	25.5	4-8
Tampa Bay	96.0	96.1	96.7	96.3	26	5-7
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	107.9	108.4	108.1	108.1	29	11-1
Seattle	104.2	104.3	104.9	104.5	23	7-5
Arizona	94.6	94.2	94.3	94.4	18.5	3-9
San Francisco	93.2	93.1	92.8	93.0	22.5	2-10

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1	Kansas City
2	New England
3	Houston
4	Pittsburgh
5	L.A. Chargers
6	Baltimore
NFC Seeding
1	L.A. Rams
2	New Orleans
3	Chicago
4	Philadelphia
5	Seattle
6	Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round

Houston over Baltimore

L.A. Chargers over Pittsburgh

Chicago over Minnesota

Philadelphia over Seattle

 

Divisional Round

L.A. Chargers over Kansas City

New England over Houston

New Orleans over Chicago

L.A. Rams over Philadelphia

 

Conference Championship

L.A. Chargers over New England

L.A. Rams over New Orleans

 

Super Bowl 53

L.A. Rams over L.A. Chargers

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 11: November 15-19, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Totals
Seattle	Green Bay	5.3	4.7	6.1	46.5
Detroit	Carolina	-1.3	-1.1	-1.8	51
Atlanta	Dallas	3.7	3.5	4.1	45
Baltimore	Cincinnati	9.3	9.3	9.2	45
Chicago	Minnesota	4.2	3.7	5.0	45
New Orleans	Philadelphia	13.0	13.1	14.0	50
Indianapolis	Tennessee	1.6	0.3	2.0	45.5
Washington	Houston	0.2	-0.6	0.2	45.5
N.Y. Giants	Tampa Bay	3.4	3.6	3.2	47
L.A. Chargers	Denver	6.7	7.8	7.7	44
Arizona	Oakland	9.0	8.3	9.5	38.5
Jacksonville	Pittsburgh	-5.1	-5.8	-5.6	43.5
L.A. Rams *	Kansas City	-0.6	-0.2	-1.2	56.5
L. A. Rams	Kansas City	2.4	2.8	1.8	56.5
* This is a neutral site game to be played in Mexico City This game has now been moved back to LA due to unplayable field conditions in Mexico City.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	104.5	104.9	104.6	104.7	23	7-3
N. Y. Jets	94.6	94.0	94.3	94.3	23	3-7
Miami	94.5	94.1	94.2	94.2	22	5-5
Buffalo	92.3	92.2	91.9	92.1	17	3-7
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Pittsburgh	107.5	107.7	107.6	107.6	24	6-2-1
Baltimore	103.0	103.3	102.9	103.1	21	4-5
Cincinnati	96.7	97.0	96.7	96.8	24	5-4
Cleveland	95.8	96.1	96.5	96.1	24	3-6-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Houston	101.0	101.1	101.2	101.1	24	6-3
Tennessee	100.2	100.5	100.1	100.3	19	5-4
Jacksonville	99.4	99.0	99.1	99.1	19.5	3-6
Indianapolis	98.9	97.8	99.0	98.6	26.5	4-5
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	107.7	108.0	108.1	107.9	28.5	9-1
LA Chargers	103.3	104.1	103.7	103.7	23	7-2
Denver	99.2	98.8	98.5	98.8	21	3-6
Oakland	89.8	89.8	89.3	89.6	20	1-8
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Philadelphia	101.4	101.5	101.0	101.3	22	4-5
Dallas	99.9	99.8	99.3	99.7	19.5	4-5
Washington	98.7	97.9	98.9	98.5	21.5	6-3
N.Y. Giants	95.5	95.5	95.6	95.5	20.5	2-7
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Chicago	104.2	104.1	105.0	104.4	23.5	6-3
Minnesota	102.6	102.8	102.5	102.6	21.5	5-3-1
Green Bay	100.2	100.8	99.9	100.3	24.5	4-4-1
Detroit	98.9	98.8	98.6	98.8	26	3-6
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	111.4	111.6	112.0	111.7	28	8-1
Carolina	102.7	102.3	102.9	102.6	25	6-3
Atlanta	101.1	100.9	100.9	100.9	25.5	4-5
Tampa Bay	94.6	94.4	94.9	94.6	26.5	3-6
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	107.1	107.7	107.0	107.3	28	9-1
Seattle	102.5	102.5	103.0	102.7	22	4-5
Arizona	96.3	95.7	96.2	96.1	18.5	2-7
San Francisco	95.0	95.2	94.9	95.0	22.5	2-8

 

This Week’s NFL Playoff Projections

As we enter week 11, we add a look at current playoff standings if the season ended today.

Current Playoff Standings

AFC
1	Kansas City
2	Pittsburgh
3	New England
4	Houston
5	L.A. Chargers
6	Cincinnati

 

NFC
1	L.A. Rams
2	New Orleans
3	Chicago
4	Washington
5	Carolina
6	Minnesota

 

Our Projections 

AFC Seeding
1	L.A. Chargers
2	Pittsburgh
3	New England
4	Houston
5	Kansas City
6	Tennessee

 

NFC Seeding
1	New Orleans
2	L.A. Rams
3	Chicago
4	Washington
5	Carolina
6	Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round

New England over Tennessee

Houston over Kansas City

Chicago over Minnesota

Carolina over Washington

 

Divisional Round

L.A. Chargers over Houston

Pittsburgh over New England

New Orleans over Carolina

L.A. Rams over Chicago

 

Conference Championships

Pittsburgh over L.A. Chargers

New Orleans over L.A. Rams

 

Super Bowl 53

New Orleans over Pittsburgh

 

Can the New York Giants Pull Off The Nearly Impossible?

Prior to week 10, members of the New York Giants claimed to the media that they could win their final eight games and finish 9-7 and make the playoffs.  With a 1-7 record at the time of this statement, the chances of winning eight consecutive games and moving from last place to first place was so infinitesimal that the odds of winning the lottery were not much worse.

Yet, if the Giants were to win just one game in the first half of the schedule and then go undefeated in the second half of the schedule to win the division and make the playoffs, it would have precedent.  Yes, this has been done one time before in the post-merger era.

In fact, it was the first year of the merger between the NFL and former AFL.  In the AFC Central, the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers had moved from the former NFL Century Division along with Houston and Cincinnati.  Entering the season, Cleveland was the heavy favorite to breeze to the division title and the second pick to the Baltimore Colts (Which had moved from the NFL Coastal Division to the AFC East Division, as it was ridiculous for the Colts and Rams to be in the same division).  The Browns had advanced to the NFL Championship Game in 1969 and returned the bulk of their roster.

Pittsburgh had been the worst team in the NFL in 1969, going 1-13.  Still, the Steelers were expected to contend with a mediocre Houston Oilers team for second place in the division, but nobody expected either team to contend with Cleveland or for the newly created single Wildcard spot for the AFC.

And, then there was Cincinnati.  The Bengals had been in existence for just two seasons.  They were a dismal 3-11 in 1968, but in 1969, they had one fantastic rookie quarterback.  Greg Cook, a local hero who had been a star quarterback at Chillicothe High School and the University of Cincinnati, had been the Bengals’ first round pick in the  1969 draft.  Cook immediately won the starting quarterback job in training camp.  He was a gunslinger type passer, typical of the type of quarterback that made the AFL more exciting than the conservative NFL.  The Bengals, led by legendary coach Paul Brown, rarely threw short passes.  Their strategy was to stretch the field vertically to open up running lanes for their two starting running backs, halfback Paul Robinson fullback Jess Phillips.

Cook’s debut was similar to Pat Mahomes this year with the Chiefs.  In his very first game, the Bengals beat Miami thanks to two long touchdown passes from Cook to receiver Eric Crabtree.  Nobody thought too much of the game, since the Dolphins were also an expansion team that had yet to build up a decent roster.  In week two, Cincinnati hosted a San Diego Chargers team that was a contender for the AFL West title.  The Chargers were big favorites, and Cook once again hooked up for two long touchdown passes, one to Bob Trumpy and one to future head coach Bruce Coslet.

At 2-0, the Bengals picked up a little notice, but week three was going to obviously be their week for comeuppance.  The powerful Kansas City Chiefs with the best defense in AFL history were coming to the Queen City.  Cook would have no chance against the best defensive line in all of football, the line that would lead KC to the Super Bowl title in a few months.  Because of the great start, NBC made this their nationally televised AFL Game in the early time slot, and yours truly was perched in front of the big Zenith TV watching this game in all hopes that the new phenom could become another Joe Namath and Daryle Lamonica for the much “funner” AFL.

Cook once again opened this game with brilliant passing plays to set up his running backs.  After spotting the Chiefs a couple of field goals, Cook led the Bengals on a scoring drive that ended with a scoring pass to Crabtree.  The Bengals led 7-6, but their history was about to be changed forever.  In the second quarter, Cook dropped back to pass and faced a Chiefs’ blitz by the outside linebackers.  Chiefs’ outside linebacker Jim Lynch knocked Cook to the ground, forcing all his weight on Cook’s throwing shoulder.  Cook would later say he heard his shoulder pop, and he exited the game with intense pain.

The Bengals hung on to win behind back up QB and future head coach Sam Wyche.  They were an incredible 3-0 and led the AFL West over the Chiefs and Raiders.  However, their gunslinger was out of bullets for the next three weeks.  Had doctors been able to diagnose a torn rotator cuff, they would have held Cook out for the rest of the year, but 1969 was a different time.  Cook was expected to come back and play in four weeks, maybe even less if he felt strong enough to throw.

He came back two weeks later, because the Bengals could not move the ball without him in the lineup.  They failed at San Diego and fell to 3-1.  Cook wasn’t ready to face the second best defense in the league in the New York Jets.  He could not get any strength behind his passes, and the Jets’ pass rush forced him to throw quickly in fear of further hurting his shoulder.  He didn’t last a half.  He had to leave the game in the second quarter, and the Bengals lost to the Jets by 14.  It was a mistake for him to try to play, and his shoulder hurt worse than it had after the initial injury.

Cook was held out of play the next two weeks, and the Bengals looked more like the expansion team they were.  A weak Denver team pummeled them, and then the Chiefs punished them in a revenge match at Municipal Stadium in Kansas City.  The loss dropped the Bengals to 3-4 at the halfway mark.  Cincinnati would have to win out to have any chance of making the playoffs, and they had yet to play the powerhouse team of the league, the Oakland Raiders.

Oakland had yet to lose a game in 1969.  This Raiders’ team looked as strong if not stronger than the two previous teams that went 13-1 and 12-2.  At 6-0-1, Oakland led Kansas City by a half-game.  Once again, this was the nationally televised AFL game on NBC that week, and yours truly sat in front of the ole Zenith ready to route the silver and black to an easy victory.

Cook made his last hurrah in this game.  Brown showed his genius in this game.  He used his wideouts as decoys, sending them deep, while placing his tight ends to run intermediate routes over the middle.  Cook hit Trumpy over and over across the middle, setting up third receiver Chip Myers as a surprise.  The strategy worked, and thanks to the Bengals’ defense picking off a trio of Lamonica passes in the first half, Cinti led 24-0 at the half on way to an easy 31-17 victory.  It would be Oakland’s only loss of the season, and it would be the Bengals’ last win of the season.

Cook limped through the rest of the year unable to put any zip on the ball, and the Bengals finished 4-9-1 and in last place in the AFL West.  Prospects were still high for the Bengals, because after an off-season of rest Cook would be ready to return to form in 1970.

However, things did not go according to plan.  Cook never again regained his arm strength as his rotator cuff injury did not heal itself on its own.  He would never again start a game for the Bengals or anybody else.  He appeared briefly in one game four years later, but it was obvious that he would never again be an NFL quarterback.

The Bengals entered 1970 picked to finish in last place, because Sam Wyche was not the quarterback to lead a team to victory in the new AFC.  He didn’t have the arm accuracy of Cook, and he lacked the finesse to hit shorter passes with much success.  The Bengals would have to try to win by pounding the ball with Phillips, Robinson, and new addition Essex Johnson.

In week one, the Bengals pulled off their miracle for the season, or at least that’s what most sports fans believed.  The three running backs combined for 200 rushing yards, and Wyche even contributed with his legs, scoring a rushing touchdown.  Cincinnati upset Oakland once again.

Over the next six weeks, the Bengals performed exactly like they were expected to perform–miserably.  In their first interconference game in their history, Detroit ran over them like a fleet of automobiles leaving the plant.  The passing stats were plain awful–64 yards!  Losses piled up against Houston, Cleveland, Kansas City, Washington, and Pittsburgh.

At the halfway point of the season, Cleveland led the AFC Central with a disappointing 4-3 record.  As expected, Pittsburgh and Houston fought for second place.  The Steelers were 3-4, while the Oilers were 2-4-1.  The Bengals were 1-6, and it looked like a similar second half would give Cincinnati the chance to draft at the top of the 1970 Draft, where Jim Plunkett and Archie Manning were there for the taking.

The Bengals players refused to give up.  A smart future NFL legend was on the Brown’s staff, and he came to Brown with an idea.  Insert backup Virgil Carter at quarterback for Wyche.  Carter had flamed out in Chicago, where he was best when he turned and handed the ball to Gayle Sayers.  Carter had an accurate arm and rather quick ability to read defenses, but his arm strength limited the types of passes he could throw.  Anything longer than 20 yards downfield looked like a beach ball floating to defensive backs.

This intelligent assistant was Bill Walsh.  His idea was what we know today as the West Coast Offense, but it should have been called the Ohio River offense.  Walsh went to Brown with ideas to spread the field horizontally and use all 53 plus yards from sideline to sideline, which would also create holes for the backs to run through, and better yet, more defensive players would be out of position to make tackles if they were spread wide.

Carter had actually become the starting quarterback a few weeks earlier, but it wasn’t until the Bengals went to War Memorial Stadium in Buffalo that the new strategy was implemented.  At 3-4, the Bills were going nowhere, but they had a rookie running back that had to be stopped in O.J. Simpson.  The Bengals figured the best way to stop Simpson was to keep the ball out of Simpson’s hands.  They tried their new ball-control short passing strategy.  It had only mediocre success, but the Bengals’ defense and special teams scored three touchdowns and set up another, as Cincinnati rolled to a 43-14 victory to improve to 2-6.  Cleveland lost to Oakland to fall into a first place tie with Pittsburgh at 4-4, while Houston fell to 2-5-1.  The Bengals were still in last place, but there was a glimmer of hope just two games behind the co-leaders.

In week 9, Cleveland came to Riverfront Stadium in the most important game in the Bengals’ early franchise history.  With Pittsburgh having to play the Chiefs, there was a chance that Cincinnati could finish the day just one game behind the two co-leaders.

Of course, this meant that Cincinnati had to win against their bitter enemy, the team named for their own coach.  It was a cold and windy day, and long passes were not easy to attempt.  Cleveland QB Mike Phipps saw some early success, but he could do nothing else once the winds picked up.  The Bengals shut down Leroy Kelly, and after trailing 10-0, they slowly came back with their short passing game.  The biggest threat this day came off the passing game, but it did not necessarily come from the passes themselves.  Carter noticed that the Browns’ linebackers were dropping wide into the flat zones, as Cleveland tried to take away the short hook and out patterns.  It left a gaping hole in the middle of the field, and when the Browns rushed from the outside-in, it looked to Carter like he could have driven his car in the opening.  Carter actually topped 100 yards rushing for the only time in his career, and Cincinnati upset the Browns.

Pittsburgh lost to the Chiefs, while Houston lost again.  Now, the Browns and Steelers were tied at 4-5, while Cincnnati was 3-6 and Houston was 2-6-1.  The Bengals could see their opportunity.  They were all of a sudden the only hot team in the division.  They truly believed that they would keep winning.  Better yet, the schedule got easier from this point on.

Pittsburgh came to Riverfront the next week, and the Bengals were now a short favorite to win the game.  While Cleveland put Houston out of their misery to square their record at 5-5, Cincinnati blew the Steelers off the astroturf.  Terry Bradshaw lasted long enough to toss three interceptions before getting yanked in favor of Terry Hanratty, but by then, the outcome had been decided.  Pinpoint passing by Carter, solid running by Robinson, and a solid effort by the defense led the Bengals to another blowout win.  Now, after 10 weeks, Cleveland could hear the roar of the Bengals.  The Browns still led the division at 5-5, but Cincinnati was 4-6, while Pittsburgh was also 4-6, making this an exciting race down the stretch

In week 11, Cincinnati benefited from having the worst team in the NFC come to town, and the Bengals clawed New Orleans for an easy victory.  Meanwhile, the Steelers knocked off the Browns, roughing up Phipps and forcing old veteran Bill Nelsen to finish the game.  The three teams were now tied at 5-6, and the media were starting to get on the Bengals’ bandwagon.

Week 12 was the big one.  Cincinnati’s only really tough remaining game took them across the continent to San Diego to face a Chargers team fighting in a three-way race in the AFC West.  It was a must-win game for both teams.  San Diego would be all but eliminated with a loss, while a win and losses by the Raiders and Chiefs would give them a chance to sneak in at the end.

The game was a tough defensive struggle, and for the only time since the implementation of the short passing game, Cincinnati could not move the ball with short passes.  San Diego begged Carter to throw long, and when he did, he was off target.  The Bengals would finish with zero net passing yards this Sunday, and the running game would manage 136 yards.  Few teams win NFL games with 136 total yards, but when you have the best punt returner in football in Lemar Parrish, sometimes you win games on 83-yard punt returns, which is what Cincinnati did when they edged the Chargers by three.

Cleveland topped a breathless Oilers team, but Pittsburgh lost to Green Bay.  The Bengals and Browns stayed tied at 6-6, while Pittsburgh was still in the race at 5-7, but obviously on the verge of elimination.

Week 13 saw the NFL experts picking the obvious.  Cincinnati played at the breathless Oilers, while Cleveland was forced to play the other hot team in the league in Dallas.  The Bengals had no trouble quickly topping the Oilers, rushing for close to 200 yards, while Carter got some rest in the second half.  At the same time, Cleveland could not move the ball at all against the surging Cowboys.  They lost a defensive struggle where they could only muster a safety.  Now, with one week to play, Cincinnati led the division at 7-6, while Cleveland was 6-7.  Pittsburgh lost to Atlanta and was eliminated at 5-8.

All Cincinnati had to do to complete the miraculous turnaround from 1-6 to 8-6 was to top a weak 2-11 Boston Patriots team at Riverfront Stadium.  Cleveland had to beat Denver, as they held the tiebreaker over the Bengals should both teams finish 7-7.

It was never in doubt.  Boston was now in star franchise quarterback mode.  A loss to the Bengals would give the Patriots their choice of Plunkett or Manning.  They wanted Plunkett, and they were sure to get him.  The Patriots looked worse than the 1976 Tampa Bay Bucs would look in six years.  Cincinnati looked like the 1962 Green Bay Packers this day, as they rolled to a 45-7 victory.  Carter’s day was over early, after he went 3 for 3 for 96 yards and a TD.  Cincinnati had done the almost impossible–going from last place and 1-6 in the first half to first place and 7-0 in the second half.  The Bengals were inept against eventual Super Bowl Champion Baltimore in the first round of the playoffs when the Colts used the same tactics as the Chargers to stop the Cincinnati short passing game.  It was still an incredible year to remember in the Queen City, as a third year team won its division.

Now, can the 2018 New York Giants go from 1-7 to 9-7 and win the division?  Chances are less than the chances Cincinnati faced for multiple reasons.

First, the team at the top of the standings, Washington, is 6-3.  The Browns were never three games over .500 in 1970.  It’s possible that the Redskins could go 2-5 the rest of the way, but chances are less than 50-50 that will happen.

Second, Dallas and Philadelphia are not Pittsburgh and Houston.  You have the reigning World Champions that have yet to find their way in 2018, but they are not likely to fold.  Dallas may be an 8-8 team at best, but just one upset in the final weeks could move the Cowboys to 9-7.

Lastly, this Giants team just isn’t good enough to win eight consecutive games.  All they have done so far is beat a lowly 49ers team on Monday Night Football.  Unlike the Bengals in 1970, the 2018 Giants have a tough, almost brutal, closing schedule.  They are one-point favorites over Tampa Bay this week, but they will be underdogs in the rest of their games against the Eagles, Bears, Redskins, Titans, Colts, and Cowboys.  The more likely scenario is a 4-12 finish and not a 9-7 finish.

 

 

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 11

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday	November 6
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Buffalo	Kent St.	22.1	23.1	23.3

 

Wednesday	November 7
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Miami (O)	Ohio U	-3.7	-3.3	-2.3
Northern Illinois	Toledo	0.2	-0.1	0.5

 

Thursday	November 8
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
North Carolina St.	Wake Forest	11.7	13.2	13.5

 

Friday	November 9
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Syracuse	Louisville	22.9	22.1	23.2
Boise St.	Fresno St.	-2.0	-2.3	-2.9

 

Saturday	November 10
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Houston	Temple	1.8	2.5	1.5
Rutgers	Michigan	-40.1	-39.9	-42.5
Pittsburgh	Virginia Tech	-1.4	-0.6	-0.8
Boston College	Clemson	-19.6	-19.4	-20.6
Texas A&M	Ole Miss	13.3	12.4	13.2
Tennessee	Kentucky	-13.0	-11.2	-13.3
Massachusetts	BYU	-16.5	-15.3	-16.5
Virginia	Liberty	26.1	26.9	25.1
Georgia Southern	Troy	1.2	1.6	0.3
Iowa St.	Baylor	15.8	16.1	16.0
Central Florida	Navy	30.0	28.3	30.8
West Virginia	TCU	10.6	11.0	11.6
Georgia Tech	Miami (Fla.)	4.3	5.0	5.0
Kansas St.	Kansas	7.3	7.4	8.1
Eastern Michigan	Akron	7.4	7.7	7.8
Indiana	Maryland	-1.4	-1.1	-0.7
Connecticut	SMU	-18.9	-18.4	-19.5
Duke	North Carolina	13.9	12.9	13.7
Oklahoma	Oklahoma St.	16.1	16.7	16.7
Iowa	Northwestern	9.0	9.0	8.9
Cincinnati	South Florida	12.9	13.2	13.9
Coastal Carolina	Arkansas St.	-6.5	-5.4	-7.2
Tulane	East Carolina	15.3	16.1	15.9
Utah	Oregon	9.7	8.1	9.5
Colorado	Washington St.	-9.1	-7.5	-8.2
Marshall	Charlotte	18.1	18.4	18.4
Old Dominion	North Texas	-15.6	-14.6	-16.5
Central Michigan	Bowling Green	8.0	10.0	8.5
Nevada	Colorado St.	12.8	12.2	13.3
Stanford	Oregon St.	32.1	31.9	33.6
UTEP	Middle Tennessee	-17.5	-16.1	-18.8
Georgia	Auburn	15.9	14.6	15.6
Penn St.	Wisconsin	8.8	8.8	9.5
Alabama	Mississippi St.	24.1	24.3	24.7
Air Force	New Mexico	14.2	13.7	14.9
Missouri	Vanderbilt	19.1	17.4	20.0
Nebraska	Illinois	12.8	12.0	12.8
Minnesota	Purdue	-14.2	-13.9	-14.7
Memphis	Tulsa	12.6	14.5	13.2
Florida	South Carolina	3.1	2.4	4.3
USC	California	3.9	4.5	3.1
Texas Tech	Texas	1.2	1.5	1.0
Arkansas	LSU	-16.4	-18.2	-18.7
Utah St.	San Jose St.	35.3	35.7	38.0
Texas St.	Appalachian St.	-21.4	-20.3	-22.5
Louisiana	Georgia St.	9.0	9.2	10.1
Florida Atlantic	Western Kentucky	20.9	19.3	20.9
South Alabama	UL-Monroe	-7.7	-6.4	-8.0
Louisiana Tech	Rice	28.6	27.9	30.9
UTSA	Florida Int’l.	-10.3	-9.9	-10.4
Notre Dame	Florida St.	21.8	20.2	21.6
UAB	Southern Miss.	17.2	16.8	17.8
Michigan St.	Ohio St.	-0.2	-0.3	-0.4
Arizona St.	UCLA	16.3	15.5	18.6
San Diego St.	UNLV	22.7	21.7	23.1

 

FBS	FCS
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Army	Lafayette	47.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	142.0	140.3	143.6	142.0
2	Clemson	139.2	136.9	140.1	138.7
3	Michigan	130.2	129.0	131.0	130.0
4	Georgia	128.9	126.3	130.0	128.4
5	Notre Dame	124.2	121.5	123.1	122.9
6	Oklahoma	123.0	121.8	123.3	122.7
7	Ohio St.	121.7	119.7	121.5	121.0
8	Washington	121.0	118.9	121.6	120.5
9	Mississippi St.	120.4	118.5	121.4	120.1
10	L S U	119.1	118.4	120.2	119.2
11	Missouri	119.0	117.5	120.1	118.8
12	Michigan St.	118.4	116.4	118.1	117.7
13	Penn St.	118.1	115.5	117.9	117.2
14	Iowa	116.6	114.8	116.4	115.9
15	Boston College	116.6	114.4	116.4	115.8
16	Auburn	115.5	114.3	116.9	115.6
17	Utah	115.7	114.0	116.1	115.3
18	West Virginia	115.6	114.6	114.9	115.0
19	Central Florida	114.4	114.6	114.7	114.6
20	Fresno St.	114.3	113.9	115.0	114.4
21	Iowa State	114.7	113.3	114.6	114.2
22	Kentucky	114.5	113.2	114.4	114.0
23	Stanford	114.6	112.3	114.8	113.9
24	Georgia Tech	114.2	113.2	114.0	113.8
25	Texas A&M	113.9	112.5	114.1	113.5
26	Purdue	113.8	112.2	113.6	113.2
27	Washington St.	113.0	111.8	112.6	112.5
28	Texas	113.1	111.5	112.4	112.3
29	Miami	112.9	111.2	112.0	112.1
30	Utah St.	111.1	112.5	112.5	112.0
31	N. Carolina St.	112.2	111.6	111.9	111.9
32	Duke	112.4	110.5	111.8	111.6
33	Florida	111.7	109.9	112.3	111.3
34	Wisconsin	112.3	109.7	111.4	111.1
35	S. Carolina	111.6	110.5	111.0	111.0
36	Syracuse	111.6	110.4	110.9	111.0
37	Arizona St.	111.3	110.0	111.2	110.8
38	Texas Tech	111.2	109.9	110.4	110.5
39	Northwestern	110.6	108.9	110.4	110.0
40	Oregon	109.0	108.9	109.6	109.2
41	Boise St.	109.3	108.7	109.1	109.0
42	Virginia Tech	109.7	108.4	108.9	109.0
43	Oklahoma St.	108.9	107.1	108.6	108.2
44	U S C	108.5	106.9	107.7	107.7
45	T C U	108.0	106.6	106.3	106.9
46	California	107.6	105.5	107.6	106.9
47	Virginia	105.9	106.1	105.2	105.7
48	Pittsburgh	105.3	104.8	105.1	105.1
49	Florida St.	105.3	104.3	104.5	104.7
50	Army	104.3	105.0	104.5	104.6
51	Maryland	104.3	102.9	103.4	103.5
52	Ole Miss	103.6	103.1	103.9	103.5
53	Arizona	103.8	102.4	104.1	103.4
54	Vanderbilt	102.9	103.0	103.1	103.0
55	Temple	102.6	102.6	103.3	102.8
56	Kansas St.	103.0	101.6	102.0	102.2
57	Cincinnati	101.2	102.9	101.7	101.9
58	Memphis	101.2	102.6	101.9	101.9
59	Houston	101.4	102.1	101.8	101.8
60	Nebraska	102.2	100.9	101.1	101.4
61	Baylor	101.9	100.2	101.6	101.2
62	Colorado	100.9	101.3	101.4	101.2
63	Wake Forest	102.5	100.4	100.4	101.1
64	BYU	100.3	100.7	100.8	100.6
65	U A B	99.3	102.0	100.3	100.6
66	Ohio U	99.8	101.1	100.7	100.5
67	Buffalo	99.3	101.3	100.5	100.4
68	Toledo	99.2	100.6	99.2	99.7
69	N. Carolina	100.0	99.1	99.6	99.6
70	San Diego St.	99.4	99.4	99.9	99.5
71	N. Texas	98.6	100.9	99.1	99.5
72	Indiana	99.9	98.8	99.7	99.5
73	Appalachian St.	97.7	99.4	99.2	98.7
74	Tennessee	98.5	98.9	98.1	98.5
75	Arkansas	99.7	97.2	98.5	98.5
76	Florida Atlantic	97.0	98.2	97.5	97.6
77	U C L A	98.0	97.5	95.7	97.0
78	Northern Illinois	96.5	97.4	96.7	96.9
79	Air Force	96.1	96.8	96.6	96.5
80	Tulane	96.2	96.8	96.3	96.4
81	Kansas	97.2	95.7	95.5	96.1
82	Minnesota	96.6	95.3	95.9	95.9
83	Marshall	94.2	96.8	95.3	95.5
84	Miami (O)	94.1	95.8	96.3	95.4
85	SMU	95.3	95.0	94.8	95.0
86	Eastern Michigan	94.0	95.4	94.3	94.6
87	Wyoming	94.7	94.8	94.3	94.6
88	Middle Tennessee	93.5	95.3	94.6	94.5
89	Nevada	94.2	94.3	94.4	94.3
90	Louisiana Tech	92.6	94.6	93.6	93.6
91	Troy	91.2	92.5	92.7	92.1
92	Illinois	92.4	91.9	91.3	91.9
93	South Florida	91.3	92.7	90.8	91.6
94	Louisville	91.7	91.2	90.7	91.2
95	Tulsa	91.1	90.6	91.2	91.0
96	Georgia Southern	89.9	91.6	90.5	90.7
97	Akron	89.1	90.2	89.0	89.5
98	Western Michigan	88.5	90.1	89.5	89.4
99	Florida Int’l.	87.6	91.2	88.1	89.0
100	Arkansas St.	87.8	89.3	89.2	88.8
101	Navy	87.4	89.3	86.9	87.9
102	Rutgers	87.5	86.5	86.0	86.7
103	Southern Miss.	84.6	87.7	85.0	85.8
104	UL-Monroe	85.2	85.7	85.8	85.6
105	New Mexico	84.9	86.1	84.6	85.2
106	Colorado St.	84.4	85.1	84.1	84.5
107	Oregon St.	85.5	83.4	84.2	84.4
108	Central Michigan	83.2	85.5	83.6	84.1
109	Louisiana	82.5	84.7	83.9	83.7
110	East Carolina	83.4	83.2	82.9	83.2
111	Liberty	81.8	81.2	82.1	81.7
112	Old Dominion	80.5	83.7	80.1	81.5
113	Massachusetts	80.3	81.9	80.8	81.0
114	Kent St.	80.1	81.2	80.2	80.5
115	W. Kentucky	79.1	81.9	79.5	80.2
116	Charlotte	79.1	81.5	79.9	80.2
117	Ball St.	79.7	81.7	79.1	80.2
118	Hawaii	79.9	81.5	78.8	80.1
119	U N L V	79.7	80.6	79.7	80.0
120	Coastal Carolina	78.8	81.3	79.6	79.9
121	San Jose St.	78.8	79.8	77.5	78.7
122	Bowling Green	77.7	78.1	77.5	77.8
123	Georgia St.	76.6	78.5	76.8	77.3
124	U T S A	74.8	78.7	75.2	76.3
125	South Alabama	75.0	76.8	75.3	75.7
126	Texas State	73.8	76.6	74.1	74.8
127	U T E P	73.0	76.2	72.9	74.0
128	Connecticut	73.8	74.2	72.8	73.6
129	N. Mexico St.	72.0	73.8	71.9	72.6
130	Rice	66.5	69.2	65.2	67.0

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	114.4	114.6	114.7	114.6	5-0	8-0
Temple	102.6	102.6	103.3	102.8	4-1	5-4
Cincinnati	101.2	102.9	101.7	101.9	4-1	8-1
South Florida	91.3	92.7	90.8	91.6	3-2	7-2
East Carolina	83.4	83.2	82.9	83.2	0-5	2-6
Connecticut	73.8	74.2	72.8	73.6	0-5	1-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	101.2	102.6	101.9	101.9	2-3	5-4
Houston	101.4	102.1	101.8	101.8	4-1	7-2
Tulane	96.2	96.8	96.3	96.4	3-2	4-5
SMU	95.3	95.0	94.8	95.0	3-2	4-5
Tulsa	91.1	90.6	91.2	91.0	1-4	2-7
Navy	87.4	89.3	86.9	87.9	1-4	2-7
AAC Averages	94.9	95.5	94.9	95.1
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	139.2	136.9	140.1	138.7	6-0	9-0
Boston College	116.6	114.4	116.4	115.8	4-1	7-2
N. Carolina St.	112.2	111.6	111.9	111.9	2-2	6-2
Syracuse	111.6	110.4	110.9	111.0	4-2	7-2
Florida St.	105.3	104.3	104.5	104.7	2-5	4-5
Wake Forest	102.5	100.4	100.4	101.1	1-4	4-5
Louisville	91.7	91.2	90.7	91.2	0-6	2-7
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Georgia Tech	114.2	113.2	114.0	113.8	3-3	5-4
Miami	112.9	111.2	112.0	112.1	2-3	5-4
Duke	112.4	110.5	111.8	111.6	2-3	6-3
Virginia Tech	109.7	108.4	108.9	109.0	3-2	4-4
Virginia	105.9	106.1	105.2	105.7	4-2	6-3
Pittsburgh	105.3	104.8	105.1	105.1	4-1	5-4
N. Carolina	100.0	99.1	99.6	99.6	1-5	1-7
ACC Averages	110.0	108.8	109.4	109.4
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	123.0	121.8	123.3	122.7	5-1	8-1
West Virginia	115.6	114.6	114.9	115.0	5-1	7-1
Iowa State	114.7	113.3	114.6	114.2	4-2	5-3
Texas	113.1	111.5	112.4	112.3	4-2	6-3
Texas Tech	111.2	109.9	110.4	110.5	3-3	5-4
Oklahoma St.	108.9	107.1	108.6	108.2	2-4	5-4
T C U	108.0	106.6	106.3	106.9	2-4	4-5
Kansas St.	103.0	101.6	102.0	102.2	1-5	3-6
Baylor	101.9	100.2	101.6	101.2	3-3	5-4
Kansas	97.2	95.7	95.5	96.1	1-5	3-6
Big 12 Averages	109.6	108.2	109.0	108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Michigan	130.2	129.0	131.0	130.0	6-0	8-1
Ohio St.	121.7	119.7	121.5	121.0	5-1	8-1
Michigan St.	118.4	116.4	118.1	117.7	5-2	6-3
Penn St.	118.1	115.5	117.9	117.2	3-3	6-3
Maryland	104.3	102.9	103.4	103.5	3-3	5-4
Indiana	99.9	98.8	99.7	99.5	1-5	4-5
Rutgers	87.5	86.5	86.0	86.7	0-6	1-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	116.6	114.8	116.4	115.9	3-3	6-3
Purdue	113.8	112.2	113.6	113.2	4-2	5-4
Wisconsin	112.3	109.7	111.4	111.1	4-2	6-3
Northwestern	110.6	108.9	110.4	110.0	5-1	5-4
Nebraska	102.2	100.9	101.1	101.4	1-5	2-7
Minnesota	96.6	95.3	95.9	95.9	1-5	4-5
Illinois	92.4	91.9	91.3	91.9	2-4	4-5
Big Ten Averages	108.9	107.3	108.4	108.2
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	97.0	98.2	97.5	97.6	2-3	4-5
Marshall	94.2	96.8	95.3	95.5	3-2	5-3
Middle Tennessee	93.5	95.3	94.6	94.5	5-1	6-3
Florida Int’l.	87.6	91.2	88.1	89.0	4-1	6-3
Old Dominion	80.5	83.7	80.1	81.5	1-5	2-7
W. Kentucky	79.1	81.9	79.5	80.2	0-5	1-8
Charlotte	79.1	81.5	79.9	80.2	3-2	4-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
U A B	99.3	102.0	100.3	100.6	6-0	8-1
N. Texas	98.6	100.9	99.1	99.5	3-2	7-2
Louisiana Tech	92.6	94.6	93.6	93.6	4-1	6-3
Southern Miss.	84.6	87.7	85.0	85.8	2-3	3-5
U T S A	74.8	78.7	75.2	76.3	2-3	3-6
U T E P	73.0	76.2	72.9	74.0	1-4	1-8
Rice	66.5	69.2	65.2	67.0	0-6	1-9
CUSA Averages	85.7	88.4	86.2	86.8
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	124.2	121.5	123.1	122.9	x	9-0
Army	104.3	105.0	104.5	104.6	x	7-2
BYU	100.3	100.7	100.8	100.6	x	4-5
Liberty	81.8	81.2	82.1	81.7	x	4-4
Massachusetts	80.3	81.9	80.8	81.0	x	4-6
N. Mexico St.	72.0	73.8	71.9	72.6	x	3-7
Indep. Averages	93.8	94.0	93.9	93.9
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio U	99.8	101.1	100.7	100.5	4-1	6-3
Buffalo	99.3	101.3	100.5	100.4	5-0	8-1
Miami (O)	94.1	95.8	96.3	95.4	3-2	3-6
Akron	89.1	90.2	89.0	89.5	2-3	4-4
Kent St.	80.1	81.2	80.2	80.5	1-4	2-7
Bowling Green	77.7	78.1	77.5	77.8	0-5	1-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	99.2	100.6	99.2	99.7	3-2	5-4
Northern Illinois	96.5	97.4	96.7	96.9	5-0	6-3
Eastern Michigan	94.0	95.4	94.3	94.6	3-3	5-5
Western Michigan	88.5	90.1	89.5	89.4	4-2	6-4
Central Michigan	83.2	85.5	83.6	84.1	0-6	1-9
Ball St.	79.7	81.7	79.1	80.2	2-4	3-7
MAC Averages	90.1	91.5	90.6	90.7
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Utah St.	111.1	112.5	112.5	112.0	5-0	8-1
Boise St.	109.3	108.7	109.1	109.0	4-1	7-2
Air Force	96.1	96.8	96.6	96.5	1-4	3-6
Wyoming	94.7	94.8	94.3	94.6	2-4	4-6
New Mexico	84.9	86.1	84.6	85.2	1-4	3-6
Colorado St.	84.4	85.1	84.1	84.5	2-3	3-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	114.3	113.9	115.0	114.4	5-0	8-1
San Diego St.	99.4	99.4	99.9	99.5	4-1	7-2
Nevada	94.2	94.3	94.4	94.3	3-2	5-4
Hawaii	79.9	81.5	78.8	80.1	3-3	6-5
U N L V	79.7	80.6	79.7	80.0	0-5	2-7
San Jose St.	78.8	79.8	77.5	78.7	1-4	1-8
MWC Averages	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	121.0	118.9	121.6	120.5	5-2	7-3
Stanford	114.6	112.3	114.8	113.9	3-3	5-4
Washington St.	113.0	111.8	112.6	112.5	5-1	8-1
Oregon	109.0	108.9	109.6	109.2	3-3	6-3
California	107.6	105.5	107.6	106.9	2-4	5-4
Oregon St.	85.5	83.4	84.2	84.4	1-5	2-7
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	115.7	114.0	116.1	115.3	4-3	6-3
Arizona St.	111.3	110.0	111.2	110.8	3-3	5-4
U S C	108.5	106.9	107.7	107.7	4-3	5-4
Arizona	103.8	102.4	104.1	103.4	4-3	5-5
Colorado	100.9	101.3	101.4	101.2	2-4	5-4
U C L A	98.0	97.5	95.7	97.0	2-4	2-7
Pac-12 Averages	107.4	106.1	107.2	106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	128.9	126.3	130.0	128.4	6-1	8-1
Missouri	119.0	117.5	120.1	118.8	1-4	5-4
Kentucky	114.5	113.2	114.4	114.0	5-2	7-2
Florida	111.7	109.9	112.3	111.3	4-3	6-3
S. Carolina	111.6	110.5	111.0	111.0	4-3	5-3
Vanderbilt	102.9	103.0	103.1	103.0	1-4	4-5
Tennessee	98.5	98.9	98.1	98.5	1-4	4-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	142.0	140.3	143.6	142.0	6-0	9-0
Mississippi St.	120.4	118.5	121.4	120.1	2-3	6-3
L S U	119.1	118.4	120.2	119.2	4-2	7-2
Auburn	115.5	114.3	116.9	115.6	3-3	6-3
Texas A&M	113.9	112.5	114.1	113.5	3-3	5-4
Ole Miss	103.6	103.1	103.9	103.5	1-4	5-4
Arkansas	99.7	97.2	98.5	98.5	0-5	2-7
SEC Averages	114.4	113.1	114.8	114.1
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	97.7	99.4	99.2	98.7	4-1	6-2
Troy	91.2	92.5	92.7	92.1	5-0	7-2
Georgia Southern	89.9	91.6	90.5	90.7	4-1	7-2
Coastal Carolina	78.8	81.3	79.6	79.9	2-3	5-4
Georgia St.	76.6	78.5	76.8	77.3	1-4	2-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	87.8	89.3	89.2	88.8	2-3	5-4
UL-Monroe	85.2	85.7	85.8	85.6	3-2	5-4
Louisiana	82.5	84.7	83.9	83.7	2-3	4-5
South Alabama	75.0	76.8	75.3	75.7	1-4	2-7
Texas State	73.8	76.6	74.1	74.8	1-4	3-6
Sun Belt Averages	83.8	85.6	84.7	84.7

 

Ranking of Conferences

#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	114.4	113.1	114.8	114.1
2	ACC	110.0	108.8	109.4	109.4
3	B12	109.6	108.2	109.0	108.9
4	BTEN	108.9	107.3	108.4	108.2
5	PAC12	107.4	106.1	107.2	106.9
6	AAC	94.9	95.5	94.9	95.1
7	MWC	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
8	IND	93.8	94.0	93.9	93.9
9	MAC	90.1	91.5	90.6	90.7
10	CUSA	85.7	88.4	86.2	86.8
11	SUN	83.8	85.6	84.7	84.7

Top 5 Group of 5

1. Central Florida
2. Fresno St.
3. Utah St.
4. Cincinnati
5. UAB

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	Utah St.	North Texas
Cure	AAC	SBC	South Florida	Appalachian St.
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Fresno St.	Stanford
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Ohio U	Troy
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Louisiana Tech	Louisiana
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	Cincinnati	Florida Atlantic
Frisco	AAC	At-Large	Houston	[BYU]
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Memphis	Marshall
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Toledo	Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Eastern Michigan	Boise St.
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulane	Vanderbilt
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	SMU	[Army]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	Georgia Southern
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	UAB	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	[California]	Middle Tennessee
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Virginia	[Buffalo]
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma St.	Arizona St.
Independence	ACC	SEC	Miami (Fla.)	[Arizona]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	Purdue
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	Texas A&M
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Boston College	Auburn
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Syracuse	Iowa St.
Arizona	MWC	SBC	San Diego St.	UL-Monroe
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas	Utah
Belk	ACC	SEC	Duke	South Carolina
Peach	At-large	At-large	Central Florida	Kentucky
Military	AAC	ACC	Temple	Virginia Tech
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Georgia Tech	USC
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Wisconsin	Oregon
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Texas Tech	Mississippi St.
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Penn St.	Washington
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Northwestern	Missouri
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Michigan St.	LSU
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	North Carolina St.	West Virginia
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Iowa	Florida
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	Washington St.
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	Georgia
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton			Alabama	Michigan
Orange			Clemson	Notre Dame
Championship Game			Alabama	Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Our Predictions on the Selection Committee Top 4

1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Notre Dame
4. Michigan

 

Looking Like Many More Bowl Eligible Teams Than Bowls This Year

In recent seasons, teams with 5-7 or 6-7 records qualified for bowl games because there were not enough teams to fill all the bowls.  Thanks to the Poinsettia Bowl folding, this losing record bowl team issue ceased last year.

This year, it looks like the Poinsettia and other bowls could have been created with more than enough bowl eligible teams for as many as 42 bowls.

As we look at the field heading into week 11, we believe that as many as 84 teams will reach bowl eligibility, and there is room for just 78.  When this happens, it hurts the Group of 5 conferences, and that is what we are expecting this year.

Here’s a look at some possible scenarios by each conference.

American Athletic

The AAC has tie-ins with seven bowls, but after this past weekend’s events with Houston and South Florida losing, the path now looks clear for Central Florida to run the table and for the second consecutive year, winning the precious New Year’s 6 Bowl bid.  That would create an eighth spot for the league, and we forecast eight teams to be bowl eligible.

Tulane and SMU now look like legitimate threats to get to 6-6 after the Green Wave blew USF to sea, and the Mustangs ended Houston’s hopes to make the Fiesta or Peach Bowl.

 

Atlantic Coast

Let’s include Notre Dame in this grouping, since the Fighting Irish are eligible for the ACC bowls.  What this means is that two teams from this group should make the NCAA Playoffs, with Clemson joining Notre Dame.

North Carolina State is 6-2 with four very winnable games remaining on their schedule.  Since the Wolf Pack will not be in the ACC Championship Game, and East Carolina will not be in the AAC Championship Game, their contingency late-scheduled game for December will take place, giving NC St. a great shot at 10-2 and possibly a NY6 Bowl.

Counting Notre Dame, we forecast 11 ACC teams to become bowl eligible, and with three going to either the playoffs or NY6, there will be eight remaining bowl eligible teams for eight remaining bowl bids.

 

Big 12

We believe that Oklahoma and West Virginia will face each other in back-to-back weeks, the first game in Morgantown, and the second in the Big 12 Championship Game.  We also believe there is a strong chance these two teams will split these games, and thus no Big 12 team will earn a spot in the Playoffs.

That throws the Big 12 Champion into the Sugar Bowl, while the runner-up is likely headed to the Fiesta Bowl.  That takes care of two bowl eligible teams.  We forecast seven Big 12 teams to make bowl eligibility, so there will be five additional teams but there will be six remaining bowls.  This will leave the Armed Forces Bowl without a Big 12 opponent.  This is fine, because there will be a perfect at-large team for this bowl.

 

Big Ten

This has become a quite interesting race, if only in the competitive West Division.  In the East, the winner of the Ohio State-Michigan game will be in line for the Playoffs if they can win the Big Ten Championship Game the next week.  That is, of course, it Ohio State can win at Michigan State this week, and that will be a tough task.

We forecast Michigan to win out and make the Playoffs, with Ohio State getting the Rose Bowl bid (even if they lose to the Spartans and finish 9-3).  The rest of the bowl order in this league will be almost cut and dry, because the Big Ten has rules not to send repeat teams to bowls when there are other options.  The repeat extends out to four years.

We forecast the Big Ten to have just eight bowl eligible teams due to tough closing schedules for the four remaining teams in competition for six wins.  Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, and Minnesota look like seven loss teams as of this week.

Thus, the league will come up two teams short in supplying bowl eligible schools, and the Quick Lane and Heart of Dallas Bowl (First Responder Bowl) will not have Big Ten teams this year.

Conference USA

Last year, CUSA had 10 bowl eligible teams, and nine of them earned bowl bids.  UTSA missed out.  This year, it looks like seven teams will get to six wins, and the league has seven bowl bids.  The champion  gets to choose its bowl destination from any of the league tie-ins.  It’s a good bet the champion will choose either the Hawaii or Bahamas Bowl.

Independents

Not counting Notre Dame, three other teams should become bowl eligible.  However, one of those teams is Liberty, and the Flames will not be eligible for a bowl game unless they are not enough bowl eligible teams.  As we mentioned already, there will be a glut and not a dearth this year.

Army is on mark for a 10-2 record, and the aforementioned Armed Forces Bowl would be the ideal location for the Black Knights, even though they played in this bowl last year.  Still, it’s the Armed Forces Bowl!

BYU may only finish 6-6, and the Cougars may be weaker than a half-dozen other bowl eligible schools that do not receive bowl bids.  However, they have a guarantee with ESPN to be placed in a bowl game if they are 6-6.  Thus, they will beat out a team that might be 8-4.  The Frisco Bowl has only one conference tie-in this year, and this is an ESPN-sponsored bowl, so it would be the logical place to send the Cougars.

Mid-American

This is a league almost assured of having more bowl eligible teams than bowl spots, even if the league gets an extra bowl game as the alternate for the Quick Lane Bowl.  In the East, Ohio U and Buffalo are already bowl eligible.  Northern Illinois and Western Michigan are bowl eligible out of the West, and Toledo and Eastern Michigan will soon join them to make it six bowl eligible teams for five bowl games.  Buffalo and Western Michigan were bowl eligible and left out last year, and it would be terrible for one of these two schools to get left out again.  Buffalo could be 10-2 or 11-2 and not the MAC Champion, so it figures that the Bulls have to get a bowl this year, or else they might consider looking elsewhere for a league.

Mountain West

This could be the most unlucky conference of all, where a team with eight wins does not earn a bid.  If a couple of Power 5 conference teams lingering at .500 or just below get to 6-6, and there are many in the running, they will steal bowl spots from the MWC.

We forecast seven MWC teams to make bowl eligibility, which means we believe Wyoming will win their final two games.  Because their last game will be at New Mexico, we think that will keep the Cowboys out of the running for the New Mexico Bowl, and that will keep them out of the bowls altogether.

Nevada is in line to be 8-4 and not make a bowl game if there are enough Power 5 league teams to gobble up all the at-large bids after Army and BYU get their bowl bids.  The Wolfpack are clearly better than Hawaii, but the Rainbows will clinch their hometown bid with a win over lowly UNLV on November 17.

Pac-12

This is the most interesting conference of all this year due to parity.  With three weeks remaining in the conference race, 10 of the 12 teams can still earn the Rose Bowl bid!  There could even be a six-way tie for first place in the six-team South Division!  As the late Dick Enberg would have no doubt said, “Oh my!”

Being a bit more realistic, even when this league tends to shy away from realism, let’s for now say that Washington State continues to win and finish the regular season at 11-1.  The Cougars would then advance to the Pac-12 Championship Game and be a healthy favorite to win and earn the Rose Bowl bid, assuming that they cannot slip into the Playoffs.

In the West, Utah still has a slim advantage over the remaining teams for the division flag, and because it would take another 5,000 words to explain all the possible scenarios, we will forecast the Utes to win the South.

Still, that is going to most likely leave this league with nine bowl eligible teams for seven bowl bids.  The last two in the priority list will likely be California and Arizona, two teams that would no doubt be number one and number two in the at-large pool.

Southeastern

Our forecast for the top league has been undergoing weekly changes, as we forecast 10 bowl eligible teams one week and 11 the next.  This is an 11-team forecast week, as team number 11 is Vanderbilt.  The Commodores are 4-5.  A loss at Missouri this week and then wins at home over Ole Miss and Tennessee would put Vandy at 6-6.  Tennessee is also 4-5, and should the Vols upset Kentucky or Missouri, the season-ending rivalry game in Nashville between the Vols and Commodores could be for the last bowl bid.  If one of these two Volunteer State rivals gets to 6-6, it makes live very bad for Nevada and a team from the MAC.

Sun Belt

This is another league likely to have a glut of bowl eligible teams for their contracted bowl tie-ins.

Troy, Appalachian State, and Georgia Southern are already bowl eligible.  Coastal Carolina, Arkansas State, and Louisiana-Monroe need one more win each to get to bowl eligibility, and they should all make it.  Louisiana needs two more wins, and we believe the Ragin’ Cajuns will get those two wins.  This adds up to seven bowl eligible teams for five bowl bids.  Coastal Carolina and one other team will be jilted.  While it should be Louisiana, the boys from Lafayette will get the New Orleans Bowl bid with six wins, as they have many times before.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 7, October 18-22, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Total
Arizona	Denver	1.4	0.8	1.7	40
L.A. Chargers [London]	Tennessee	5.5	6.3	6.6	42.5
Indianapolis	Buffalo	4.3	2.9	4.3	40.5
Philadelphia	Carolina	2.7	3.4	2.3	45.5
Kansas City	Cincinnati	9.9	9.8	10.3	50
Tampa Bay	Cleveland	2.8	2.4	2.8	47.5
Miami	Detroit	-1.0	-1.6	-1.1	48.5
Jacksonville	Houston	5.2	5.2	5.7	44
N.Y. Jets	Minnesota	-0.4	-1.0	-0.2	45.5
Chicago	New England	0.0	-1.0	0.3	44
Baltimore	New Orleans	-0.1	0.5	0.0	47.5
Washington	Dallas	1.3	0.6	2.2	42.5
San Francisco	L.A. Rams	-10.4	-10.8	-10.7	50.5
Atlanta	N.Y. Giants	8.3	8.2	8.1	47

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	105.0	105.4	105.1	105.2	22.5	4-2
N. Y. Jets	98.5	98.2	98.7	98.5	24	3-3
Miami	97.2	96.8	97.3	97.1	22	4-2
Buffalo	93.8	93.8	93.5	93.7	15.5	2-4
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Pittsburgh	105.6	105.7	105.3	105.5	23	3-2-1
Baltimore	104.7	105.3	105.0	105.0	21	4-2
Cincinnati	99.9	100.3	99.9	100.0	23	4-2
Cleveland	95.0	95.3	95.7	95.3	23	2-3-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Jacksonville	101.1	101.0	101.3	101.1	20	3-3
Houston	98.4	98.3	98.1	98.2	24	3-3
Tennessee	96.9	96.9	96.2	96.7	19	3-3
Indianapolis	95.6	94.2	95.3	95.0	25	1-5
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	106.8	107.2	107.2	107.1	27	5-1
LA Chargers	102.4	103.2	102.8	102.8	23.5	4-2
Denver	97.4	97.1	96.8	97.1	21.5	2-4
Oakland	93.1	93.3	92.9	93.1	21	1-5
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Philadelphia	102.0	102.1	101.7	101.9	22.5	3-3
Dallas	100.5	100.4	99.9	100.3	20	3-3
Washington	99.3	98.5	99.6	99.1	22.5	3-2
N.Y. Giants	95.5	95.3	95.4	95.4	21.5	1-5
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Chicago	102.4	102.0	102.9	102.4	21.5	3-2
Minnesota	102.0	102.2	101.9	102.0	21.5	3-2-1
Detroit	100.7	100.9	100.9	100.8	26.5	2-3
Green Bay	99.4	100.1	99.0	99.5	24.5	3-2-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	107.8	107.8	108.0	107.9	26.5	4-1
Carolina	101.9	101.2	101.8	101.6	23	3-2
Atlanta	101.3	101.1	101.0	101.1	25.5	2-4
Tampa Bay	95.3	95.2	96.0	95.5	24.5	2-3
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	108.1	108.9	108.4	108.5	26.5	6-0
Seattle	102.1	102.0	102.4	102.2	22.5	3-3
Arizona	95.8	95.0	95.5	95.4	18.5	1-5
San Francisco	94.7	95.1	94.7	94.8	24	1-5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1	Kansas City
2	New England
3	Baltimore
4	Houston
5	L.A. Chargers
6	Pittsburgh

 

NFC Seeding
1	L.A. Rams
2	New Orleans
3	Philadelphia
4	Chicago
5	Carolina
6	Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round

Baltimore over Pittsburgh

L.A. Chargers over Houston

Philadelphia over Minnesota

Carolina over Chicago

 

Divisional Round

L.A. Chargers over Kansas City

Baltimore over New England

L.A. Rams over Carolina

Philadelphia over New Orleans

 

Conference Championship

Baltimore over L.A. Chargers

L.A. Rams over Philadelphia

 

Super Bowl 53

L.A. Rams over Baltimore

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 8

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Thursday	October 18
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Arizona St.	Stanford	-4.2	-2.8	-4.6
Arkansas St.	Georgia St.	10.0	9.2	10.6

 

Friday	October 19
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Boise St.	Colorado St.	28.2	26.5	28.4
UNLV	Air Force	-9.6	-8.8	-9.4

 

Saturday	October 20
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Temple	Cincinnati	6.7	5.1	7.0
Arkansas	Tulsa	12.3	10.7	10.6
Navy	Houston	-8.6	-7.0	-9.4
Tulane	SMU	5.0	5.8	5.7
Missouri	Memphis	15.5	12.1	15.5
East Carolina	Central Florida	-29.1	-29.6	-30.0
South Florida	Connecticut	27.9	29.6	29.4
Syracuse	North Carolina	13.5	13.0	13.3
Duke	Virginia	12.6	10.1	12.9
Clemson	North Carolina St.	22.4	20.3	23.0
Florida St.	Wake Forest	6.7	8.3	8.6
TCU	Oklahoma	-4.6	-4.3	-6.3
Texas Tech	Kansas	13.3	13.4	13.9
Michigan St.	Michigan	-6.2	-7.0	-7.1
Wisconsin	Illinois	26.9	24.6	27.3
Iowa	Maryland	13.7	13.1	14.2
Rutgers	Northwestern	-23.4	-22.7	-25.4
Indiana	Penn St.	-20.4	-18.7	-21.2
Nebraska	Minnesota	-2.8	-3.4	-4.5
Purdue	Ohio St.	-14.2	-13.6	-14.7
Marshall	Florida Atlantic	-0.6	1.4	-0.2
Middle Tenneesee	Charlotte	17.3	16.3	18.3
Louisiana Tech	UTEP	25.8	25.2	27.9
Southern Miss.	UTSA	9.8	8.5	9.7
Florida Int’l.	Rice	26.4	27.8	29.1
UAB	North Texas	-2.2	-2.2	-2.6
Western Kentucky	Old Dominion	1.1	0.8	2.6
Army	Miami (O)	15.1	14.2	13.0
Massachusetts	Coastal Carolina	10.2	9.6	10.7
New Mexico St.	Georgia Southern	-13.3	-13.1	-13.7
Toledo	Buffalo	2.5	1.4	1.1
Ohio U	Bowling Green	14.6	15.5	14.8
Ball St.	Eastern Michigan	-6.8	-5.7	-7.4
Central Michigan	Western Michigan	-4.8	-4.0	-5.4
Kent St.	Akron	-10.3	-10.6	-11.0
Wyoming	Utah St.	-10.6	-12.1	-12.7
New Mexico	Fresno St.	-19.5	-16.9	-19.7
San Diego St.	San Jose St.	30.5	30.0	33.1
Hawaii	Nevada	-5.9	-3.8	-6.7
Washington	Colorado	22.3	19.3	22.8
Oregon St.	California	-13.9	-13.8	-15.1
Washington St.	Oregon	-1.1	-2.0	-2.7
Utah	USC	9.2	8.9	10.6
UCLA	Arizona	1.9	3.5	-0.6
Ole Miss	Auburn	-7.9	-7.0	-9.2
Tennessee	Alabama	-38.1	-35.6	-40.2
LSU	Mississippi St.	1.6	4.0	2.2
Kentucky	Vanderbilt	17.3	15.9	17.3
Appalachian St.	Louisiana	22.0	21.7	22.7
Louisina-Monroe	Texas St.	13.6	10.9	14.2

 

FBS	FCS
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Liberty	Idaho St.	4.8

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	140.2	138.2	141.8	140.1
2	Clemson	133.9	131.3	134.4	133.2
3	Georgia	127.8	124.7	128.6	127.0
4	Ohio St.	127.5	125.5	127.8	126.9
5	Michigan	125.5	124.2	125.9	125.2
6	Notre Dame	124.5	121.7	123.5	123.2
7	Washington	123.4	121.4	124.7	123.1
8	Penn St.	122.3	119.6	122.6	121.5
9	Oklahoma	119.7	118.3	120.0	119.3
10	Mississippi St.	119.9	117.4	120.6	119.3
11	L S U	118.6	118.4	119.8	118.9
12	Michigan St.	117.7	115.6	117.2	116.9
13	Utah	116.0	114.3	116.9	115.8
14	Miami	115.9	114.5	115.4	115.3
15	Iowa	116.0	114.0	115.7	115.2
16	Auburn	114.7	113.4	116.3	114.8
17	Wisconsin	115.8	113.1	115.2	114.7
18	Central Florida	114.5	114.7	114.8	114.7
19	Duke	115.3	113.2	114.9	114.5
20	Kentucky	114.9	113.8	114.8	114.5
21	Missouri	114.7	113.0	115.7	114.4
22	Florida	114.6	113.0	115.5	114.3
23	N. Carolina St.	114.5	113.9	114.4	114.3
24	Stanford	115.1	112.4	115.1	114.2
25	Oregon	113.7	113.6	114.6	114.0
26	Texas A&M	114.2	112.9	114.4	113.8
27	Boston College	114.4	111.8	113.8	113.4
28	Texas	113.5	112.1	113.0	112.8
29	Iowa State	112.8	111.2	112.6	112.2
30	Virginia Tech	112.2	111.2	111.8	111.7
31	West Virginia	112.4	111.4	111.5	111.7
32	S. Carolina	112.2	111.0	111.8	111.7
33	T C U	112.1	111.0	110.7	111.2
34	Georgia Tech	111.2	110.1	110.8	110.7
35	Fresno St.	110.9	109.9	111.2	110.7
36	Northwestern	110.7	109.0	110.6	110.1
37	Purdue	110.3	108.9	110.1	109.8
38	Boise St.	109.7	109.0	109.8	109.5
39	U S C	109.8	108.4	109.3	109.2
40	Syracuse	109.9	108.5	109.1	109.2
41	Washington St.	109.6	108.6	108.9	109.0
42	Utah St.	107.8	109.2	109.3	108.8
43	Texas Tech	109.5	108.2	108.4	108.7
44	Oklahoma St.	109.4	107.5	109.1	108.6
45	Arizona St.	107.9	106.6	107.5	107.3
46	Florida St.	107.4	106.8	107.1	107.1
47	Army	104.9	105.6	105.1	105.2
48	Virginia	105.2	105.7	104.5	105.1
49	Colorado	104.0	105.1	104.9	104.7
50	Maryland	105.3	104.0	104.5	104.6
51	Ole Miss	103.8	103.4	104.1	103.7
52	Kansas St.	104.3	102.9	103.4	103.5
53	Houston	103.0	103.7	103.4	103.4
54	Minnesota	103.7	102.8	103.6	103.4
55	Memphis	102.2	103.9	103.2	103.1
56	California	103.8	101.3	103.2	102.8
57	San Diego St.	102.4	102.6	103.2	102.7
58	Temple	102.4	102.4	103.1	102.6
59	Baylor	103.0	101.2	102.7	102.3
60	Wake Forest	103.8	101.4	101.5	102.2
61	Appalachian St.	100.8	102.6	102.5	101.9
62	N. Texas	99.9	102.4	100.9	101.0
63	Pittsburgh	101.4	100.7	100.8	101.0
64	Vanderbilt	100.5	100.8	100.5	100.6
65	BYU	100.1	100.6	100.7	100.4
66	Arizona	100.6	98.8	100.7	100.0
67	Arkansas	100.3	97.8	99.2	99.1
68	Tennessee	99.2	99.6	98.5	99.1
69	South Florida	98.4	100.4	98.5	99.1
70	N. Carolina	99.4	98.4	98.8	98.9
71	Cincinnati	98.2	99.8	98.6	98.8
72	Buffalo	97.7	99.8	98.8	98.8
73	U C L A	99.5	99.3	97.1	98.6
74	Indiana	98.9	97.9	98.4	98.4
75	Kansas	99.2	97.8	97.5	98.2
76	Florida Atlantic	97.2	97.9	97.8	97.6
77	Toledo	97.1	98.2	96.9	97.4
78	Nebraska	97.9	96.4	96.1	96.8
79	Louisiana Tech	94.6	97.1	96.1	95.9
80	U A B	94.6	97.1	95.3	95.7
81	Air Force	95.3	95.9	95.4	95.5
82	Northern Illinois	94.9	95.6	94.7	95.1
83	Louisville	95.2	95.2	94.4	94.9
84	Marshall	93.6	96.3	94.5	94.8
85	Tulane	94.4	94.8	94.2	94.5
86	Miami (O)	92.8	94.5	95.1	94.1
87	Eastern Michigan	93.5	94.8	94.0	94.1
88	Wyoming	94.3	94.1	93.6	94.0
89	Ohio U	92.7	93.9	93.2	93.3
90	Middle Tennessee	91.8	93.2	93.0	92.7
91	Western Michigan	91.8	93.4	92.7	92.7
92	Navy	91.4	93.6	91.0	92.0
93	Nevada	92.1	91.9	92.0	92.0
94	Troy	90.6	91.9	91.9	91.5
95	SMU	92.0	91.4	91.0	91.5
96	Akron	90.8	92.1	91.2	91.4
97	Florida Int’l.	89.6	93.6	90.4	91.2
98	Illinois	91.4	91.0	90.4	90.9
99	Tulsa	91.0	90.2	91.5	90.9
100	Georgia Southern	88.9	90.6	89.5	89.7
101	New Mexico	88.4	90.0	88.5	89.0
102	Arkansas St.	86.7	88.0	88.1	87.6
103	Central Michigan	85.0	87.4	85.3	85.9
104	Southern Miss.	84.4	87.4	85.0	85.6
105	Oregon St.	86.9	84.5	85.1	85.5
106	Ball St.	84.2	86.6	84.1	85.0
107	Colorado St.	84.5	85.4	84.4	84.8
108	Massachusetts	83.4	85.3	84.3	84.3
109	U N L V	83.2	84.6	83.5	83.8
110	Rutgers	84.8	83.7	82.8	83.8
111	Old Dominion	82.0	85.4	81.5	83.0
112	Louisiana	81.7	83.9	82.8	82.8
113	East Carolina	82.9	82.6	82.3	82.6
114	UL-Monroe	82.3	82.5	82.8	82.6
115	Hawaii	82.2	84.1	81.3	82.5
116	W. Kentucky	80.7	83.7	81.6	82.0
117	Liberty	81.3	80.5	81.5	81.1
118	Bowling Green	80.6	80.9	80.8	80.8
119	Georgia St.	79.2	81.2	80.0	80.1
120	U T S A	77.2	81.4	77.8	78.8
121	Kent St.	78.0	79.1	77.7	78.3
122	Charlotte	77.0	79.4	77.2	77.9
123	South Alabama	76.4	78.3	77.0	77.2
124	Coastal Carolina	75.7	78.2	76.1	76.7
125	San Jose St.	74.9	75.6	73.1	74.5
126	N. Mexico St.	73.1	75.0	73.3	73.8
127	Connecticut	73.5	73.8	72.1	73.1
128	Texas State	71.3	74.2	71.1	72.2
129	U T E P	71.3	74.4	70.7	72.1
130	Rice	66.2	68.7	64.3	66.4

 

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	114.5	114.7	114.8	114.7	3-0	6-0
Temple	102.4	102.4	103.1	102.6	3-0	4-3
South Florida	98.4	100.4	98.5	99.1	2-0	6-0
Cincinnati	98.2	99.8	98.6	98.8	2-0	6-0
East Carolina	82.9	82.6	82.3	82.6	0-3	2-4
Connecticut	73.5	73.8	72.1	73.1	0-3	1-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Houston	103.0	103.7	103.4	103.4	2-0	5-1
Memphis	102.2	103.9	103.2	103.1	1-3	4-3
Tulane	94.4	94.8	94.2	94.5	1-1	2-4
Navy	91.4	93.6	91.0	92.0	1-2	2-4
SMU	92.0	91.4	91.0	91.5	1-1	2-4
Tulsa	91.0	90.2	91.5	90.9	0-3	1-5
AAC Averages	95.3	95.9	95.3	95.5
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	133.9	131.3	134.4	133.2	3-0	6-0
N. Carolina St.	114.5	113.9	114.4	114.3	1-0	5-0
Boston College	114.4	111.8	113.8	113.4	2-1	5-2
Syracuse	109.9	108.5	109.1	109.2	1-2	4-2
Florida St.	107.4	106.8	107.1	107.1	1-3	3-3
Wake Forest	103.8	101.4	101.5	102.2	0-2	3-3
Louisville	95.2	95.2	94.4	94.9	0-4	2-5
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami	115.9	114.5	115.4	115.3	2-1	5-2
Duke	115.3	113.2	114.9	114.5	1-1	5-1
Virginia Tech	112.2	111.2	111.8	111.7	3-0	4-2
Georgia Tech	111.2	110.1	110.8	110.7	1-3	3-4
Virginia	105.2	105.7	104.5	105.1	2-1	4-2
Pittsburgh	101.4	100.7	100.8	101.0	2-1	3-4
N. Carolina	99.4	98.4	98.8	98.9	1-2	1-4
ACC Averages	110.0	108.8	109.4	109.4
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	119.7	118.3	120.0	119.3	2-1	5-1
Texas	113.5	112.1	113.0	112.8	4-0	6-1
Iowa State	112.8	111.2	112.6	112.2	2-2	3-3
West Virginia	112.4	111.4	111.5	111.7	3-1	5-1
T C U	112.1	111.0	110.7	111.2	1-2	3-3
Texas Tech	109.5	108.2	108.4	108.7	2-1	4-2
Oklahoma St.	109.4	107.5	109.1	108.6	1-3	4-3
Kansas St.	104.3	102.9	103.4	103.5	1-3	3-4
Baylor	103.0	101.2	102.7	102.3	2-2	4-3
Kansas	99.2	97.8	97.5	98.2	0-3	2-4
Big 12 Averages	109.6	108.2	108.9	108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	127.5	125.5	127.8	126.9	4-0	7-0
Michigan	125.5	124.2	125.9	125.2	4-0	6-1
Penn St.	122.3	119.6	122.6	121.5	1-2	4-2
Michigan St.	117.7	115.6	117.2	116.9	3-1	4-2
Maryland	105.3	104.0	104.5	104.6	2-1	4-2
Indiana	98.9	97.9	98.4	98.4	1-3	4-3
Rutgers	84.8	83.7	82.8	83.8	0-4	1-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	116.0	114.0	115.7	115.2	2-1	5-1
Wisconsin	115.8	113.1	115.2	114.7	2-1	4-2
Northwestern	110.7	109.0	110.6	110.1	3-1	3-3
Purdue	110.3	108.9	110.1	109.8	2-1	3-3
Minnesota	103.7	102.8	103.6	103.4	0-3	3-3
Nebraska	97.9	96.4	96.1	96.8	0-4	0-6
Illinois	91.4	91.0	90.4	90.9	1-2	3-3
Big Ten Averages	109.1	107.6	108.6	108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	97.2	97.9	97.8	97.6	1-1	3-3
Marshall	93.6	96.3	94.5	94.8	2-1	4-2
Middle Tennessee	91.8	93.2	93.0	92.7	2-1	3-3
Florida Int’l.	89.6	93.6	90.4	91.2	2-0	4-2
Old Dominion	82.0	85.4	81.5	83.0	0-4	1-6
W. Kentucky	80.7	83.7	81.6	82.0	0-2	1-5
Charlotte	77.0	79.4	77.2	77.9	2-1	3-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
N. Texas	99.9	102.4	100.9	101.0	2-1	6-1
Louisiana Tech	94.6	97.1	96.1	95.9	2-1	4-2
U A B	94.6	97.1	95.3	95.7	3-0	5-1
Southern Miss.	84.4	87.4	85.0	85.6	1-1	2-3
U T S A	77.2	81.4	77.8	78.8	2-1	3-4
U T E P	71.3	74.4	70.7	72.1	0-2	0-6
Rice	66.2	68.7	64.3	66.4	0-3	1-6
CUSA Averages	85.7	88.4	86.2	86.8
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	124.5	121.7	123.5	123.2	x	7-0
Army	104.9	105.6	105.1	105.2	x	4-2
BYU	100.1	100.6	100.7	100.4	x	4-3
Massachusetts	83.4	85.3	84.3	84.3	x	2-5
Liberty	81.3	80.5	81.5	81.1	x	3-3
N. Mexico St.	73.1	75.0	73.3	73.8	x	2-5
Indep. Averages	94.5	94.8	94.7	94.7
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Buffalo	97.7	99.8	98.8	98.8	3-0	6-1
Miami (O)	92.8	94.5	95.1	94.1	3-1	3-4
Ohio U	92.7	93.9	93.2	93.3	1-1	3-3
Akron	90.8	92.1	91.2	91.4	0-2	2-3
Bowling Green	80.6	80.9	80.8	80.8	0-3	1-6
Kent St.	78.0	79.1	77.7	78.3	0-3	1-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	97.1	98.2	96.9	97.4	1-1	3-3
Northern Illinois	94.9	95.6	94.7	95.1	4-0	4-3
Eastern Michigan	93.5	94.8	94.0	94.1	1-3	3-4
Western Michigan	91.8	93.4	92.7	92.7	3-0	5-2
Central Michigan	85.0	87.4	85.3	85.9	0-3	1-6
Ball St.	84.2	86.6	84.1	85.0	2-1	3-4
MAC Averages	89.9	91.3	90.4	90.6
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	109.7	109.0	109.8	109.5	2-1	4-2
Utah St.	107.8	109.2	109.3	108.8	2-0	5-1
Air Force	95.3	95.9	95.4	95.5	0-3	2-4
Wyoming	94.3	94.1	93.6	94.0	0-3	2-5
New Mexico	88.4	90.0	88.5	89.0	1-1	3-3
Colorado St.	84.5	85.4	84.4	84.8	2-1	3-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	110.9	109.9	111.2	110.7	2-0	5-1
San Diego St.	102.4	102.6	103.2	102.7	2-0	5-1
Nevada	92.1	91.9	92.0	92.0	1-2	3-4
U N L V	83.2	84.6	83.5	83.8	0-2	2-4
Hawaii	82.2	84.1	81.3	82.5	3-1	6-2
San Jose St.	74.9	75.6	73.1	74.5	0-3	0-6
MWC Averages	93.8	94.4	93.8	94.0
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	123.4	121.4	124.7	123.1	3-1	5-2
Stanford	115.1	112.4	115.1	114.2	2-1	4-2
Oregon	113.7	113.6	114.6	114.0	2-1	5-1
Washington St.	109.6	108.6	108.9	109.0	2-1	5-1
California	103.8	101.3	103.2	102.8	0-3	3-3
Oregon St.	86.9	84.5	85.1	85.5	0-3	1-5
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	116.0	114.3	116.9	115.8	2-2	4-2
U S C	109.8	108.4	109.3	109.2	3-1	4-2
Arizona St.	107.9	106.6	107.5	107.3	1-2	3-3
Colorado	104.0	105.1	104.9	104.7	2-1	5-1
Arizona	100.6	98.8	100.7	100.0	2-2	3-4
U C L A	99.5	99.3	97.1	98.6	1-2	1-5
Pac-12 Averages	107.5	106.2	107.3	107.0
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	127.8	124.7	128.6	127.0	4-1	6-1
Kentucky	114.9	113.8	114.8	114.5	3-1	5-1
Missouri	114.7	113.0	115.7	114.4	0-3	3-3
Florida	114.6	113.0	115.5	114.3	4-1	6-1
S. Carolina	112.2	111.0	111.8	111.7	2-3	3-3
Vanderbilt	100.5	100.8	100.5	100.6	0-3	3-4
Tennessee	99.2	99.6	98.5	99.1	1-2	3-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	140.2	138.2	141.8	140.1	4-0	7-0
Mississippi St.	119.9	117.4	120.6	119.3	1-2	4-2
L S U	118.6	118.4	119.8	118.9	3-1	6-1
Auburn	114.7	113.4	116.3	114.8	1-3	4-3
Texas A&M	114.2	112.9	114.4	113.8	3-1	5-2
Ole Miss	103.8	103.4	104.1	103.7	1-2	5-2
Arkansas	100.3	97.8	99.2	99.1	0-4	1-6
SEC Averages	114.0	112.7	114.4	113.7
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	100.8	102.6	102.5	101.9	2-0	4-1
Troy	90.6	91.9	91.9	91.5	3-1	5-2
Georgia Southern	88.9	90.6	89.5	89.7	3-0	5-1
Georgia St.	79.2	81.2	80.0	80.1	1-1	2-4
Coastal Carolina	75.7	78.2	76.1	76.7	1-2	3-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	86.7	88.0	88.1	87.6	0-2	3-3
Louisiana	81.7	83.9	82.8	82.8	2-1	3-3
UL-Monroe	82.3	82.5	82.8	82.6	1-2	3-4
South Alabama	76.4	78.3	77.0	77.2	2-2	2-5
Texas State	71.3	74.2	71.1	72.2	0-3	1-5
Sun Belt Averages	83.4	85.1	84.2	84.2

 

The Conferences Rated

#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	114.0	112.7	114.4	113.7
2	ACC	110.0	108.8	109.4	109.4
3	B12	109.6	108.2	108.9	108.9
4	BTEN	109.1	107.6	108.6	108.4
5	P-12	107.5	106.2	107.3	107.0
6	AAC	95.3	95.9	95.3	95.5
7	IND	94.5	94.8	94.7	94.7
8	MWC	93.8	94.4	93.8	94.0
9	MAC	89.9	91.3	90.4	90.6
10	CUSA	85.7	88.4	86.2	86.8
11	SUN	83.4	85.1	84.2	84.2

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Note: We revised these early Monday morning.  Multiple sites have listed different bowl tie-ins.  We visited each bowl’s home page to verify the correct alignments and made the appropriate changes.

Additionally, our bowl projections differ from most others because we make assumptions on future games.  For instance, all other major bowl projections have Ohio State in the Playoff today.  We believe the Buckeyes are going to lose a game before the end of the regular season and fall to 5th or 6th in the final poll.  Central Florida is listed as the top Group of 5 team and placed in a New Year’s 6 Bowl, but we believe they will lose and fall behind others.  Currently, we forecast Fresno State to end up in this spot.

Here are the revised bowl & playoff projections.

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	Utah St.	North Texas
Cure	AAC	SBC	Central Florida	Georgia Southern
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	San Diego St.	Utah
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Western Michigan	Appalachian St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Louisiana Tech	Louisiana-Monroe
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	Tulane	Florida Atlantic
Frisco	AAC	At-Large	Cincinnati	[BYU]
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	South Florida	Marshall
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Buffalo	Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Eastern Michigan	Boise St.
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Memphis	[Southern Miss.]
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	Houston	[Army]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	Troy
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	UAB	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	Minnesota	Middle Tennessee
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	[Toledo]	Michigan St.
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas Tech	Arizona St.
Independence	ACC	SEC	Virginia	[Louisiana]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Syracuse	Maryland
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	Texas A&M
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Wisconsin	Mississippi St.
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Virginia Tech	Iowa St.
Arizona	MWC	SBC	Nevada	Arkansas St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	West Virginia	Washington
Belk	ACC	SEC	Duke	South Carolina
Peach	At-large	At-large	Florida	North Carolina St.
Military	AAC	ACC	Temple	[Colorado]
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Boston College	Stanford
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Northwestern	USC
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	TCU	Auburn
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Purdue	Oregon
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Miami (Fla.)	Missouri
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	LSU
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	Michigan	Fresno St.
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Iowa	Kentucky
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	Washington St.
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	Georgia
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton			Clemson	Notre Dame
Orange			Alabama	Texas
Championship Game			Alabama	Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

There Is Really Only One Team That Can Beat Alabama

The Alabama Crimson Tide currently sits almost one touchdown ahead of the number two Clemson Tigers, but can this Clemson team defeat Alabama?  The answer to that question is probably not, with a qualification.  If Tua Tagovailoa’s knee injury issues were to force him to miss games, then maybe Clemson or Ohio State could make a close game of it.  However, when Tua is healthy, there is only one team that can beat the top-ranked Tide.  That team is: Alabama.

Unless Alabama has a total meltdown, the Tide should win every game by double digits.  Let’s take a look at the moment at Alabama through seven games compared to some great teams from the PiRate Ratings era (1969-Present) that ran the table and won the national championship.

Team	Year	PPG	Opp	Rush	Opp	Pass	Opp	Yds	Opp
Alabama	2018	54	15	217	127	350	190	567	317
Alabama	2009	32	12	215	78	188	166	403	244
Texas	2005	50	16	275	131	237	172	512	303
USC	2004	38	13	177	79	272	200	449	279
Miami (Fla.)	2001	43	10	205	133	250	138	455	271
Oklahoma	2000	37	15	135	108	295	171	430	279
Florida St.	1999	38	17	124	99	303	206	427	305
Nebraska	1997	47	17	393	73	121	184	514	257
Nebraska	1995	53	15	400	78	157	216	557	294
Alabama	1992	28	9	209	55	154	139	363	194
Miami (Fla.)	1991	32	8	146	132	295	157	441	289
Washington	1991	41	10	232	67	240	170	472	237
Alabama	1979	32	6	345	102	84	78	429	180
Notre Dame	1973	35	8	350	82	111	119	461	201
USC	1972	39	11	247	110	185	132	432	242
Nebraska	1971	39	8	253	98	178	112	431	210
Texas	1969	40	11	363	90	109	136	472	226
Mystery	Team	46	9	319	77	189	185	508	262

I’ll mention that mystery team in a moment.  Let’s look at Alabama’s stats so far.  The Crimson Tide is averaging 54 points per game and giving up 15.  For the most part, the starters have rarely played in the fourth quarter of any game and some have not played in the second half.

This Tide team is unstoppable on offense, as they can still ram through defenses and break through for large rushing gains, but now they have the best quarterback in the nation.  Tagovailoa is drawing comparisons to Steve Young, Aaron Rodgers, and Russell Wilson.  For older folks, he’s like a combination of Daryle Lamonica and Tobin Rote.  In a day when few teams average more than 10-11 yards per completion, Tagovailoa is averaging more than 14 yards per attempt!

The only knock against Alabama so far this year is that they have played a rather weak schedule.  However, the Tide quickly dismissed the good teams they have faced.  They beat Texas A&M by more than three touchdowns, while Clemson had to sneak by the Aggies.  They beat Ole Miss by 55 and Missouri by 29.

The Crimson Tide still has games to play against LSU, Mississippi State, and Auburn, but we don’t expect any of the three to beat ‘Bama.  LSU will be the toughest test prior to the SEC Championship Game.  With Georgia losing to LSU, and with Florida and Kentucky still on the Bulldogs’ schedule, there is no guarantee that Georgia will even make the SEC Championship Game.

If Alabama runs the table, they will play the #4 seed in the Semifinal Game of the Playoffs.  As of today, it looks like the #4 seed will be a one-loss team, from Among Texas, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Michigan, and remotely Washington St. or Oregon.  None of these teams will challenge the Tide.

The Championship Game might pit Clemson against ‘Bama again.  It could be Alabama and Ohio State, but we have a suspicion that the Buckeyes will lose one game this year, either to Purdue this weekend, Michigan State, or Michigan.  There really isn’t a team other than maybe Clemson that can compete with Alabama this year.  For the Crimson Tide to lose, they will have to beat themselves.

Now to the Mystery Team  

The Mystery Team had drawn comparisons to the great Army teams with Glenn Davis and Felix Blanchard.  They had been compared to the great Oklahoma team that won 47 games in a row.  In fact, the Mystery Team had won 22 games in a row

What you are looking at is an undefeated team with the closest win being 27 points.  This Mystery Team beat the #10 team by four touchdowns and the #19 team by 33 points.

But, there’s a catch.  This team was undefeated with these gaudy stats with one game left to play.  They only needed to win their final game of the year against a team they had defeated by more than five touchdowns the year before.

This team was called by its coach, a Hall of Famer with prior national titles as his best ever.  Did this team beat itself?  No, not exactly.  The prior year’s team cost this Mystery Team its for sure national championship.

This team is Ohio State in 1969.  Through eight games, the Buckeyes did what Alabama is doing this year.  They never trailed for even one second of the season going into the final game against Michigan.  A 41-14 win over Washington in Seattle was their closest game to date, and they entered this game as a 17-point favorite over the 7-2 and 12th-ranked Wolverines at the Big House.

The year before Ohio State beat Michigan 50-14.  The Buckeyes had tried for two when they were up 43-14 and missed, and then they added another touchdown late to hit the half-century mark.  For the next season, first year Michigan coach Bo Schembechler made sure his returning players remembered that game.  The number 50 was plastered everywhere a Wolverine football player could find himself in the athletic facility.  Practice uniforms had the number 50.

Ohio State began the 1969 game like they had the previous eight games.  They returned the opening kick past the 40 yard line, and then on the first scrimmage play, quarterback Rex Kern scrambled for 25 yards to put the Buckeyes close to the Michigan 30.  Bruising fullback Jim Otis carried wide on a sweep, then off-tackle, then up the middle twice in a row to give Ohio State a first down at the Michigan 20.  Otis appeared to make it a first and goal a few plays later, but OSU was called for a false start.  On 4th and short, Michigan made the first big play of the drive stopping the Scarlet and Gray inches short of a first down.

Michigan could not do anything with the ball and punted after three plays.  Ohio State roared right back.  Michigan punted, and Ohio State punt returner Larry Zelina returned it almost back to where Michigan had punted.  It was a quick and easy five play drive for a touchdown, and the Buckeyes led 6-0.  PATs were not automatic in those days, and the OSU extra point was missed.

At this point, it looked like the blowout was on.  However, the Michigan players were not about to let Ohio State do to them in Ann Arbor what had happened a year earlier in Columbus.  Michigan drove the ball on a 10-play drive for a touchdown, and when behemoth kicker Frank Titas hit the PAT, Ohio State trailed for the first time all season, even if it was just 7-6.

Ohio State did what Woody Hayes’ teams did best.  On the next possession, they drove almost 75 yards in 10 plays to retake the lead on a pass from Kern to end Jan White.  On a 2-point try, Kern was sacked before he could pass the ball, and Ohio State led 12-7.  The Buckeyes would not score another point in 1969.

Michigan came alive and quickly drove for the go-ahead score to take a 14-12 lead.  Before the half was done, the Wolverines would put the game away.  After Ohio State was forced to punt, Barry Pierson almost returned it to the house, being knocked down just short of the goal.  Michigan scored a couple of plays later and led 21-12 near the middle of the quarter.  Following a nice Ohio State drive that stalled, Coach Hayes elected to try to make a 53-yard field goal, as in those days, a missed field goal that did not get returned was a touchback.  The kick was way short, and Michigan had the ball once again.  A nice drive could consume the clock, but Schembechler was interested in more.

Michigan calmly killed the clock, but they did so by driving 80 yard for the apparent killing touchdown.  The score was overturned by a penalty.  A short field goal made it 24-12 Wolverines, and that’s how the score stayed the rest of the day.

In the second half, Pierson, the punt returner that set up the go ahead touchdown was the leading receiver for Ohio State.  He intercepted three Buckeye passes, as quarterbacks Kern and Ron Maciejowski threw a combined six picks.  Ohio State didn’t threaten to score any more touchdowns, missing a couple of long field goals.  Michigan played conservatively letting the Buckeyes make mistakes, and the greatest Ohio State team in modern history finished the season 8-1.

Here’s the thing.  In this era, the Big Ten was not bowl friendly.  The champion of the league earned a Rose Bowl bid, but there was a rule that a team could not make consecutive trips to the Rose Bowl.  Had Ohio State beaten Michigan, they would have been 9-0 with no bowl game.  Michigan, at 7-3, would have been picked to go in their place.  However, Schembechler had told his team that if they lost to the Buckeyes, he would decline the Rose Bowl bid.  Third place Purdue would have faced USC instead.

Michigan did win, and the Wolverines headed to Pasadena to play a 9-0-1 USC team that had tied Notre Dame.  On the night before the game, Schembechler suffered a heart attack and did not coach in the game.  Assistant Jim Young became acting head coach, and Michigan played lethargically, losing to USC 10-3.  It was the first time Michigan had ever lost a bowl game.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 6

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Thursday	October 4
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Houston	Tulsa	15.2	17.1	15.0
Troy	Georgia St.	16.2	15.3	16.8

 

Friday	October 5
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Marshall	Middle Tennesee	7.2	8.8	7.2
Louisville	Georgia Tech	-9.5	-8.4	-10.0
BYU	Utah St.	0.1	-0.9	-0.5

 

Saturday	October 6
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Georgia Southern	South Alabama	11.5	11.0	11.3
Massachusetts	South Florida	-11.7	-11.8	-10.5
Wake Forest	Clemson	-19.6	-19.1	-22.5
Temple	East Carolina	15.0	15.0	15.9
Ball St.	Northern Illinois	-8.3	-6.7	-8.5
Pittsburgh	Syracuse	-7.4	-6.3	-7.6
Central Florida	SMU	26.2	26.8	27.6
Florida Atlantic	Old Dominion	16.2	12.7	16.7
Ohio St.	Indiana	33.1	31.6	34.2
North Carolina St.	Boston College	2.0	4.4	1.9
Florida	LSU	1.8	-0.4	1.4
South Carolina	Missouri	0.6	1.1	-1.0
Michigan	Maryland	21.9	22.1	23.2
Cincinnati	Tulane	3.6	4.9	4.1
Kent St.	Ohio U	-13.5	-13.8	-14.7
Western Michigan	Eastern Michigan	1.1	1.7	1.4
Central Michigan	Buffalo	-8.7	-8.3	-9.3
Akron	Miami (O)	9.3	8.8	7.0
Virginia Tech	Notre Dame	-6.7	-4.1	-5.4
Rutgers	Illinois	-1.1	-1.7	-1.8
Boise St.	San Diego St.	17.5	16.4	17.2
Colorado	Arizona St.	-2.3	0.6	-1.1
New Mexico St.	Liberty	-3.2	0.2	-3.3
UTEP	North Texas	-32.0	-31.3	-33.5
UCLA	Washington	-27.8	-25.9	-32.5
Stanford	Utah	10.5	9.5	10.2
Nevada	Fresno St.	-16.5	-15.3	-16.8
Oregon St.	Washington St.	-20.0	-21.4	-21.0
Arizona	California	-3.1	-2.0	-2.3
UNLV	New Mexico	8.2	8.1	8.5
Michigan St.	Northwestern	13.3	13.2	12.8
West Virginia	Kansas	18.7	19.3	20.3
Arkansas	Alabama	-37.0	-37.3	-40.1
Louisiana Tech	UAB	8.6	8.8	9.7
Texas A&M	Kentucky	2.1	1.8	2.2
Oklahoma St.	Iowa St.	6.4	6.4	7.1
Georgia	Vanderbilt	33.8	29.8	35.0
Minnesota	Iowa	-6.5	-4.6	-5.8
Toledo	Bowling Green	19.9	21.3	20.0
Mississippi St.	Auburn	2.0	0.5	0.5
Air Force	Navy	-0.7	-3.0	-0.7
Ole Miss	UL-Monroe	22.0	21.7	22.0
Texas (n)	Oklahoma	-8.3	-8.4	-9.5
Memphis	Connecticut	28.9	30.4	30.9
Texas St.	Louisiana	-4.0	-2.7	-5.3
Rice	UTSA	-6.3	-7.7	-8.1
Baylor	Kansas St.	2.3	1.7	3.0
Miami (Fla.)	Florida St.	14.7	14.2	15.2
Wisconsin	Nebraska	26.8	25.8	29.0
San Jose St.	Colorado St.	-1.2	-1.2	-3.0
Hawaii	Wyoming	-11.6	-9.2	-12.3

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Note: The PiRate Ratings are predictive ratings.  While past results are a major factor, these are not rankings based on what the teams have done so far.  Some teams will be ranked ahead of teams that beat them.  We are only trying to rate the teams based on what they should do in their next game.  Thus, our goal is to beat the spread and pick winners rather than be a report card for each team.

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	140.0	137.9	141.9	139.9
2	Georgia	131.1	127.6	132.1	130.2
3	Ohio St.	129.5	127.3	130.2	129.0
4	Clemson	129.2	126.5	129.8	128.5
5	Washington	125.6	123.5	127.5	125.5
6	Michigan	123.8	122.5	124.1	123.4
7	Penn St.	123.5	120.8	124.0	122.8
8	Notre Dame	124.1	120.9	123.0	122.6
9	Oklahoma	120.8	119.5	121.4	120.6
10	Auburn	119.4	118.3	121.3	119.7
11	Michigan St.	120.3	118.3	119.8	119.5
12	Miami	118.3	117.0	118.2	117.9
13	Mississippi St.	118.4	115.7	118.8	117.7
14	Wisconsin	118.4	115.8	118.2	117.5
15	Stanford	118.2	115.5	118.4	117.4
16	L S U	115.4	115.6	116.6	115.9
17	Central Florida	115.0	115.1	115.5	115.2
18	Missouri	114.8	113.2	116.0	114.6
19	Boise St.	114.3	113.6	114.9	114.3
20	Virginia Tech	114.4	113.8	114.5	114.2
21	Kentucky	114.6	113.5	114.5	114.2
22	West Virginia	114.5	113.7	114.1	114.1
23	Boston College	114.8	112.0	114.6	113.8
24	Florida	114.2	112.3	115.0	113.8
25	N. Carolina St.	113.8	113.4	113.5	113.6
26	Texas A&M	113.7	112.3	113.7	113.2
27	Oregon	112.9	112.9	113.6	113.1
28	Duke	113.8	111.5	113.2	112.9
29	Oklahoma St.	113.2	111.5	113.4	112.7
30	T C U	112.9	111.9	111.7	112.1
31	Iowa	113.2	110.7	112.4	112.1
32	S. Carolina	112.4	111.3	112.0	111.9
33	Texas	112.5	111.1	111.9	111.8
34	Utah	110.7	108.9	111.2	110.3
35	Fresno St.	110.5	109.2	110.6	110.1
36	Georgia Tech	110.0	108.9	109.6	109.5
37	Syracuse	110.2	108.7	109.5	109.5
38	Northwestern	110.0	108.2	110.0	109.4
39	Iowa State	109.8	108.0	109.2	109.0
40	Washington St.	109.3	108.3	108.6	108.7
41	U S C	109.4	107.6	108.6	108.5
42	Arizona St.	108.5	107.1	108.2	107.9
43	Texas Tech	108.4	107.0	107.1	107.5
44	California	107.9	105.3	107.4	106.9
45	Purdue	107.5	105.9	107.1	106.8
46	Florida St.	106.1	105.4	105.6	105.7
47	Wake Forest	107.2	104.9	104.8	105.6
48	Utah St.	103.7	105.0	105.0	104.6
49	N. Texas	103.1	105.5	103.9	104.1
50	Maryland	104.8	103.4	103.9	104.0
51	Colorado	103.1	104.7	104.2	104.0
52	Virginia	103.8	104.3	102.9	103.7
53	Minnesota	103.7	103.2	103.6	103.5
54	Houston	102.9	103.7	103.1	103.2
55	BYU	102.3	102.6	103.0	102.6
56	Army	102.3	102.9	102.5	102.6
57	Kansas St.	103.3	101.9	102.1	102.4
58	Baylor	102.6	100.6	102.1	101.8
59	Memphis	100.8	102.6	101.5	101.6
60	Ole Miss	101.7	101.3	101.9	101.6
61	Arizona	101.9	100.3	102.1	101.4
62	Vanderbilt	100.2	100.8	100.1	100.4
63	San Diego St.	99.8	100.2	100.7	100.2
64	Pittsburgh	99.8	99.3	98.9	99.4
65	Appalachian St.	98.1	99.8	99.6	99.1
66	Indiana	99.4	98.7	99.0	99.0
67	South Florida	98.2	100.3	98.2	98.9
68	Temple	98.7	98.6	99.4	98.9
69	Arkansas	100.1	97.6	98.8	98.8
70	N. Carolina	98.7	97.6	97.9	98.1
71	Toledo	97.6	98.9	97.5	98.0
72	Louisville	98.0	98.0	97.2	97.7
73	Buffalo	96.7	98.8	97.7	97.7
74	Kansas	98.8	97.3	96.8	97.6
75	Cincinnati	96.6	98.2	96.9	97.2
76	Florida Atlantic	96.8	97.2	97.2	97.1
77	Louisiana Tech	95.5	97.9	97.0	96.8
78	Tennessee	96.4	96.8	95.7	96.3
79	Navy	95.5	98.0	95.1	96.2
80	Wyoming	96.3	96.1	95.9	96.1
81	Marshall	94.3	97.0	95.3	95.6
82	Tulane	95.4	95.8	95.3	95.5
83	Akron	94.9	96.1	95.2	95.4
84	Northern Illinois	95.0	95.6	94.8	95.1
85	Ohio U	93.9	95.2	94.6	94.6
86	Eastern Michigan	93.3	94.6	94.0	94.0
87	U C L A	94.8	94.6	92.0	93.8
88	Nebraska	94.6	93.0	92.2	93.2
89	Troy	92.1	93.5	93.6	93.1
90	Western Michigan	91.9	93.7	92.9	92.9
91	Air Force	91.8	92.0	91.4	91.7
92	Illinois	91.8	91.5	90.8	91.4
93	SMU	91.9	91.3	90.9	91.4
94	Florida Int’l.	89.3	93.4	90.1	90.9
95	Nevada	91.0	90.9	90.8	90.9
96	Middle Tennessee	90.1	91.2	91.1	90.8
97	U N L V	89.9	91.4	90.3	90.5
98	Tulsa	90.8	89.6	91.1	90.5
99	U A B	89.3	91.6	89.7	90.2
100	Arkansas St.	88.9	90.3	90.5	89.9
101	Miami (O)	88.1	89.9	90.7	89.6
102	Georgia Southern	87.5	89.0	88.1	88.2
103	Rutgers	87.7	86.8	86.0	86.8
104	Central Michigan	85.5	88.0	86.0	86.5
105	East Carolina	86.2	86.1	86.0	86.1
106	Southern Miss.	84.5	87.6	85.3	85.8
107	W. Kentucky	83.9	87.1	85.1	85.4
108	New Mexico	84.7	86.3	84.8	85.3
109	Oregon St.	86.3	83.9	84.5	84.9
110	Old Dominion	83.6	87.5	83.4	84.9
111	Ball St.	84.1	86.5	83.8	84.8
112	Massachusetts	83.5	85.5	84.7	84.6
113	Colo. State	82.9	83.7	82.8	83.1
114	UL-Monroe	82.1	82.0	82.4	82.2
115	Hawaii	80.7	82.9	79.5	81.0
116	Liberty	81.1	79.9	81.3	80.8
117	U T S A	78.7	82.9	79.1	80.3
118	Bowling Green	80.2	80.1	80.0	80.1
119	Georgia St.	79.0	81.1	79.8	80.0
120	South Alabama	79.0	81.0	79.8	79.9
121	Coastal Carolina	78.7	81.5	79.3	79.8
122	Louisiana	77.8	79.7	78.8	78.8
123	San Jose St.	78.6	79.5	76.8	78.3
124	Kent St.	77.9	78.9	77.3	78.0
125	N. Mexico St.	74.9	77.1	75.0	75.7
126	Charlotte	74.4	76.6	74.3	75.1
127	Connecticut	74.9	75.2	73.6	74.6
128	Texas State	71.3	74.5	70.9	72.2
129	Rice	69.9	72.7	68.5	70.4
130	U T E P	68.6	71.7	68.0	69.4

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	115.0	115.1	115.5	115.2	1-0	4-0
South Florida	98.2	100.3	98.2	98.9	1-0	4-0
Temple	98.7	98.6	99.4	98.9	1-0	2-3
Cincinnati	96.6	98.2	96.9	97.2	1-0	5-0
East Carolina	86.2	86.1	86.0	86.1	0-1	2-2
Connecticut	74.9	75.2	73.6	74.6	0-2	1-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Houston	102.9	103.7	103.1	103.2	0-0	3-1
Memphis	100.8	102.6	101.5	101.6	0-2	3-2
Navy	95.5	98.0	95.1	96.2	1-1	2-2
Tulane	95.4	95.8	95.3	95.5	1-0	2-3
SMU	91.9	91.3	90.9	91.4	1-0	2-3
Tulsa	90.8	89.6	91.1	90.5	0-1	1-3
AAC Averages	95.6	96.2	95.6	95.8
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	129.2	126.5	129.8	128.5	1-0	4-0
Boston College	114.8	112.0	114.6	113.8	1-0	3-1
N. Carolina St.	113.8	113.4	113.5	113.6	0-0	3-0
Syracuse	110.2	108.7	109.5	109.5	1-0	4-0
Florida St.	106.1	105.4	105.6	105.7	0-2	2-2
Wake Forest	107.2	104.9	104.8	105.6	0-1	2-2
Louisville	98.0	98.0	97.2	97.7	0-1	2-2
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami	118.3	117.0	118.2	117.9	0-0	3-1
Virginia Tech	114.4	113.8	114.5	114.2	1-0	2-1
Duke	113.8	111.5	113.2	112.9	0-0	4-0
Georgia Tech	110.0	108.9	109.6	109.5	0-2	1-3
Virginia	103.8	104.3	102.9	103.7	1-0	3-1
Pittsburgh	99.8	99.3	98.9	99.4	1-1	2-2
N. Carolina	98.7	97.6	97.9	98.1	1-0	1-2
ACC Averages	109.9	108.7	109.3	109.3
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	120.8	119.5	121.4	120.6	2-0	5-0
West Virginia	114.5	113.7	114.1	114.1	2-0	4-0
Oklahoma St.	113.2	111.5	113.4	112.7	1-1	4-1
T C U	112.9	111.9	111.7	112.1	1-1	3-2
Texas	112.5	111.1	111.9	111.8	2-0	4-1
Iowa State	109.8	108.0	109.2	109.0	0-2	1-3
Texas Tech	108.4	107.0	107.1	107.5	1-1	3-2
Kansas St.	103.3	101.9	102.1	102.4	0-2	2-3
Baylor	102.6	100.6	102.1	101.8	1-1	3-2
Kansas	98.8	97.3	96.8	97.6	0-2	2-3
Big 12 Averages	109.7	108.2	109.0	109.0
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	129.5	127.3	130.2	129.0	2-0	5-0
Michigan	123.8	122.5	124.1	123.4	2-0	4-1
Penn St.	123.5	120.8	124.0	122.8	1-1	4-1
Michigan St.	120.3	118.3	119.8	119.5	2-0	3-1
Maryland	104.8	103.4	103.9	104.0	1-0	3-1
Indiana	99.4	98.7	99.0	99.0	1-1	4-1
Rutgers	87.7	86.8	86.0	86.8	0-2	1-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	118.4	115.8	118.2	117.5	1-0	3-1
Iowa	113.2	110.7	112.4	112.1	0-1	3-1
Northwestern	110.0	108.2	110.0	109.4	1-1	1-3
Purdue	107.5	105.9	107.1	106.8	1-1	2-3
Minnesota	103.7	103.2	103.6	103.5	0-1	3-1
Nebraska	94.6	93.0	92.2	93.2	0-2	0-4
Illinois	91.8	91.5	90.8	91.4	0-1	2-2
Big Ten Averages	109.2	107.6	108.7	108.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	96.8	97.2	97.2	97.1	0-1	2-3
Marshall	94.3	97.0	95.3	95.6	1-0	3-1
Florida Int’l.	89.3	93.4	90.1	90.9	1-0	3-2
Middle Tennessee	90.1	91.2	91.1	90.8	1-0	2-2
W. Kentucky	83.9	87.1	85.1	85.4	0-1	1-4
Old Dominion	83.6	87.5	83.4	84.9	0-2	1-4
Charlotte	74.4	76.6	74.3	75.1	1-1	2-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
N. Texas	103.1	105.5	103.9	104.1	0-1	4-1
Louisiana Tech	95.5	97.9	97.0	96.8	1-0	3-1
U A B	89.3	91.6	89.7	90.2	1-0	3-1
Southern Miss.	84.5	87.6	85.3	85.8	1-0	2-2
U T S A	78.7	82.9	79.1	80.3	1-0	2-3
Rice	69.9	72.7	68.5	70.4	0-1	1-4
U T E P	68.6	71.7	68.0	69.4	0-1	0-5
CUSA Averages	85.9	88.6	86.3	86.9
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	124.1	120.9	123.0	122.6	x	5-0
BYU	102.3	102.6	103.0	102.6	x	3-2
Army	102.3	102.9	102.5	102.6	x	3-2
Massachusetts	83.5	85.5	84.7	84.6	x	2-4
Liberty	81.1	79.9	81.3	80.8	x	2-2
N. Mexico St.	74.9	77.1	75.0	75.7	x	1-4
Independents Averages	94.7	94.8	94.9	94.8
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Buffalo	96.7	98.8	97.7	97.7	1-0	4-1
Akron	94.9	96.1	95.2	95.4	0-0	2-1
Ohio U	93.9	95.2	94.6	94.6	0-0	2-2
Miami (O)	88.1	89.9	90.7	89.6	1-1	1-4
Bowling Green	80.2	80.1	80.0	80.1	0-1	1-4
Kent St.	77.9	78.9	77.3	78.0	0-1	1-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	97.6	98.9	97.5	98.0	0-0	2-2
Northern Illinois	95.0	95.6	94.8	95.1	2-0	2-3
Eastern Michigan	93.3	94.6	94.0	94.0	0-2	2-3
Western Michigan	91.9	93.7	92.9	92.9	1-0	3-2
Central Michigan	85.5	88.0	86.0	86.5	0-1	1-4
Ball St.	84.1	86.5	83.8	84.8	1-0	2-3
MAC Averages	89.9	91.3	90.4	90.6
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	114.3	113.6	114.9	114.3	1-0	3-1
Utah St.	103.7	105.0	105.0	104.6	1-0	3-1
Wyoming	96.3	96.1	95.9	96.1	0-1	2-3
Air Force	91.8	92.0	91.4	91.7	0-2	1-3
New Mexico	84.7	86.3	84.8	85.3	0-0	2-2
Colo. State	82.9	83.7	82.8	83.1	0-1	1-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	110.5	109.2	110.6	110.1	0-0	3-1
San Diego St.	99.8	100.2	100.7	100.2	0-0	3-1
Nevada	91.0	90.9	90.8	90.9	1-0	3-2
U N L V	89.9	91.4	90.3	90.5	0-0	2-2
Hawaii	80.7	82.9	79.5	81.0	2-0	5-1
San Jose St.	78.6	79.5	76.8	78.3	0-1	0-4
MWC Averages	93.7	94.2	93.6	93.8
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	125.6	123.5	127.5	125.5	2-0	4-1
Stanford	118.2	115.5	118.4	117.4	2-0	4-1
Oregon	112.9	112.9	113.6	113.1	1-1	4-1
Washington St.	109.3	108.3	108.6	108.7	1-1	4-1
California	107.9	105.3	107.4	106.9	0-1	3-1
Oregon St.	86.3	83.9	84.5	84.9	0-2	1-4
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	110.7	108.9	111.2	110.3	0-2	2-2
U S C	109.4	107.6	108.6	108.5	2-1	3-2
Arizona St.	108.5	107.1	108.2	107.9	1-1	3-2
Colorado	103.1	104.7	104.2	104.0	1-0	4-0
Arizona	101.9	100.3	102.1	101.4	1-1	2-3
U C L A	94.8	94.6	92.0	93.8	0-1	0-4
Pac-12 Averages	107.4	106.0	107.2	106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	131.1	127.6	132.1	130.2	3-0	5-0
Missouri	114.8	113.2	116.0	114.6	0-1	3-1
Kentucky	114.6	113.5	114.5	114.2	3-0	5-0
Florida	114.2	112.3	115.0	113.8	2-1	4-1
S. Carolina	112.4	111.3	112.0	111.9	1-2	2-2
Vanderbilt	100.2	100.8	100.1	100.4	0-1	3-2
Tennessee	96.4	96.8	95.7	96.3	0-2	2-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	140.0	137.9	141.9	139.9	2-0	5-0
Auburn	119.4	118.3	121.3	119.7	1-1	4-1
Mississippi St.	118.4	115.7	118.8	117.7	0-2	3-2
L S U	115.4	115.6	116.6	115.9	2-0	5-0
Texas A&M	113.7	112.3	113.7	113.2	1-1	3-2
Ole Miss	101.7	101.3	101.9	101.6	0-2	3-2
Arkansas	100.1	97.6	98.8	98.8	0-2	1-4
SEC Averages	113.7	112.4	114.2	113.4
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	98.1	99.8	99.6	99.1	1-0	3-1
Troy	92.1	93.5	93.6	93.1	2-0	4-1
Georgia Southern	87.5	89.0	88.1	88.2	1-0	3-1
Georgia St.	79.0	81.1	79.8	80.0	1-0	2-3
Coastal Carolina	78.7	81.5	79.3	79.8	1-1	3-2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	88.9	90.3	90.5	89.9	0-1	3-2
UL-Monroe	82.1	82.0	82.4	82.2	0-2	2-3
South Alabama	79.0	81.0	79.8	79.9	1-1	1-4
Louisiana	77.8	79.7	78.8	78.8	0-1	1-3
Texas State	71.3	74.5	70.9	72.2	0-1	1-3
Sun Belt Averages	83.4	85.2	84.3	84.3

The Conferences Rated

#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	113.7	112.4	114.2	113.4
2	ACC	109.9	108.7	109.3	109.3
3	B12	109.7	108.2	109.0	109.0
4	BTEN	109.2	107.6	108.7	108.5
5	P-12	107.4	106.0	107.2	106.9
6	AAC	95.6	96.2	95.6	95.8
7	IND	94.7	94.8	94.9	94.8
8	MWC	93.7	94.2	93.6	93.8
9	MAC	89.9	91.3	90.4	90.6
10	CUSA	85.9	88.6	86.3	86.9
11	SUN	83.4	85.2	84.3	84.3

The Top 5 Group of 5 Teams

1. Central Florida
2. South Florida
3. Cincinnati
4. Boise St.
5. Fresno St.

 

Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	Utah St.	Southern Miss.
Cure	AAC	SBC	[Liberty]	Coastal Carolina
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Fresno St.	California
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Buffalo	Troy
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	UAB	Appalachian St.
Boca Raton	MAC	CUSA	Western Michigan	Florida Int’l.
Frisco	AAC	MAC	Memphis	Ohio U
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Cincinnati	Marshall
Bahamas	AAC	CUSA	South Florida	North Texas
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Northern Illinois	Boise St.
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulane	Vanderbilt 5-7
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	Houston	[Army]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Akron	Georgia Southern
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	Louisiana Tech	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	[Wyoming]	Middle Tennessee
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Toledo	Northwestern 5-7
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Iowa St.	Arizona St.
Independence	ACC	SEC	[BYU]	[UNLV]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Syracuse	Michigan St.
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	Texas A&M
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Duke	Missouri
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	North Carolina St.	Texas
Arizona	MWC	SBC	San Diego St.	Arkansas St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	West Virginia	USC
Belk	ACC	SEC	Virginia Tech	South Carolina
Peach	At-large	At-large	Georgia	Central Florida
Military	AAC	ACC	[Utah]	Boston College
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Virginia	Colorado
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Wisconsin	Washington St.
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	TCU	Mississippi St.
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Iowa	Stanford
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Indiana	Auburn
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Minnesota	Florida
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	Penn St.	Oregon
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Miami (Fla.)	Kentucky
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Michigan	Washington
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	LSU
PLAYOFFS
Cotton			Alabama	Clemson
Orange			Ohio St.	Notre Dame
Championship			Alabama	Notre Dame
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections
Teams in Italics are 5-7 that qualify based on top APR scores

FBS Power 5 Schools That May Have New Coaches in 2019

There are sites where they list 10-50 head coaches on the hot seat.  Some of these are ridiculous, as they place secure coaches on their lists just to fill up space.  Some of these lists are not updated frequently, as they continue to list already dismissed coaches as being on a hot seat.

The majority of you reading this care mostly about the Power 5 schools.  We have a list of six coaches legitimately on the hot seat after one month of the football season has been played.  Additionally, we added one other that could be a one year hire.

We present the top 6 in reverse order with number one being the most likely candidate to not be his team’s head coach in 2019.

6. Texas Tech–Kliff Kingsbury

If Texas Tech can get to a bowl this year, Kingsbury will most likely get a one year reprieve.  The Red Raiders have an upset win over Oklahoma State, and this gives TTU a chance to make it to 6-6 and earn a low tier bowl.

5. Rutgers–Chris Ash

Rutgers has done very little in Ash’s first two seasons, and they are headed for a last place finish in the Big Ten East this year.  Losing to Kansas and Buffalo has harmed his job status, but transitioning to the Big Ten has been very difficult.  Ash may get one more year to try to turn the program around.

4. Georgia Tech–Paul Johnson

The fans of the Yellow Jackets have grown a little tired of watching their team rush for 300 yards per game and give up a ton of passing yards, while losing a lot of close games.  The problem with dismissing Johnson is that either Tech will have to go through a rough transition moving from the option offense to a more conventional offense, possibly having a weak offense for the next two (even three) years, or they will have to hire another option style coach, like Army’s Jeff Monken.  Tech is most likely headed to another sub .500 record.

3. Larry Fedora–North Carolina

Unless the Tar Heels make a miraculous turnaround and beat several ACC opponents, including Duke, and then they sneak into a minor bowl game, Fedora is most likely out after this season.  UNC has one ACC Coastal Division title and no conference championships in Fedora’s tenure, and the school has been in the headlines for the wrong reasons too many times in recent years.

2. Lovie Smith–Illinois

Illinois last had a winning season in 2011, and that team went 7-6 by beating a 6-7 UCLA team in a bowl and beating a slate of weak opponents.  The Illini last had a really successful season in 2007 when they snuck into the Rose Bowl.  This isn’t a sexy program, but there is no reason it cannot compete in the weaker of the two Big Ten divisions.  Smith’s teams in Champaign-Urbana have yet to show any intent on competing.  If Illinois loses at Nebraska in November, the announcement could come before they play their next game.

1 D.J. Durkin–Maryland

This one is obvious.  Durkin is holding on to this job strictly on a technicality at the moment, as he is on leave pending a hearing into the death of former player Jordan McNair.  We can see no way that Durkin will keep this job.  Whether interim head coach Matt Canada can win enough games to become the full-time coach is debatable, as the school may choose to clean house and start from scratch like it once did with its basketball program when it rambled out of control.

Could He Be One and Done?

One coach not on the hot seat list above is Arizona coach Kevin Sumlin.  Sumlin has not been the best fit with the talent on hand in Tucson, and the Cardinals are looking like a last place team in the weaker South Division in the Pac-12.

Sumlin inherited the top dual threat quarterback in the nation in Khalil Tate.  Last year under previous coach Rich Rodriguez, Tate rushed for 1,411 yards and 12 touchdowns, averaging more than nine yards per rush.  He threw for 1,591 yards and 14 touchdowns.  He missed two games and part of another, so with 8 offensive starters returning, including their top-rate leader, Arizona was expected to score as many points per game as they did last year, if not more.  How many did they average in 2017?  41.3 points per game ranked among the national leaders.

Arizona returned nearly every player that caught a pass and their top non-QB runner.  The offense under Rich Rod would have expected to top 500 yards per game and 40 points per game for sure.

Sumlin has turned Tate into a drop back passer, and the results have been disastrous.  Through five games this year, Tate averages a measley 14 rushing yards per game.  His passing efficiency is down, mostly due to a much lower completion percentage.  Most importantly, the Wildcats are averaging 24 points per game against FBS opponents.  A 3-9 record is the most likely scenario, but that assumes ‘Zona will beat UCLA.

Sumlin has one saving grace.  The school will basically have to mortgage the football stadium to buy out his contract this year or next year, unless they can find cause to dismiss him.  Cause does not mean going 2-10.  He would have to be culpable in a violation of rules or school policy.

Coaches Likely To Receive Promotions To Better Jobs

There are some obvious names that are likely to be candidates to move up to bigger and better jobs in 2019.  It depends on which jobs come open.  You never know when somebody might retire, take an NFL job, or step down due to health reasons.  What if Nick Saban goes 15-0 and decides he has nothing more to prove at Alabama?  He might decide that he has one more chance at a Lomardi Trophy.  Others that potentially could retire include Bill Snyder at Kansas State, Kirk Ferentz at Iowa, David Cutcliffe at Duke, and even Mark Dantonio at Michigan State.

Who would be the key candidates that some school’s athletic director and board members might look to when they fill these jobs?

Coaches already at Power 5 Schools

1. Matt Campbell–Iowa St.

Campbell has turned Iowa State into a serious player in the Big 12, but this program has so many liabilities trying to compete with Oklahoma and Texas.  It isn’t likely that Campbell can sustain success over the long haul in Ames, so he might look to strike while the iron is hot, as it might start to cool after this season.

2. Bronco Mendenhall–Virginia

Mendenhall won at BYU and was a somewhat surprising choice for the Cavaliers’ job.  After a slow rebuilding process, he has made the Cavs a decent team that should earn a second consecutive bowl appearance.  This has never been a major football power, and Mendenhall maybe has one more job left in his resume.

3. Jeff Brohm–Purdue

Brohm won at Western Kentucky and immediately won at Purdue last year, taking the Boilermakers to their first bowl game in five years.  This is a hard place to win, but it has been done before.  However, Purdue is a basketball school, and other football powers can offer Brohm more than Purdue can match.  If he can get the Boilermakers back to a bowl this year after  an 0-3 start, somebody may come after him.

4. Mike Leach–Washington State

This would be a long shot, but Leach has been offered new job opportunities in the past 12 months.  He chose to stay in Pullman.  If you have never been to this part of the country, Pullman is in one of the most beautiful areas, offering lifelong Westerners like Leach something he could not find in the East or South.  The Palouse can transform an Instagrammer into the next Ansel Adams.  Leach might like to finish his career in this Heaven on Earth.  The contract to lure him away would have to be guaranteed with several million dollars per year offered.

Group  of 5 Head Coaches

Bryan Harsin–Boise St.

Harsin has become the next great Boise State head coach.  Dirk Koetter could not win at Arizona State after leaving Boise.  Dan Hawkins failed at Colorado.  Chris Petersen has become a major success at Washington, so one of the three great Bronco coaches has been able to do the trick away from the field of blue.

Craig Bohl–Wyoming

Bohl helped create the FCS dynasty at North Dakota State, winning three consecutive national titles.  He’s done an admirable job at Wyoming, where even though the state produces few FBS-caliber recruits, this program has a long history of being viable.  Bohl’s biggest liability is the one he can do nothing about–he’s 61 years old.

Scott Satterfield–Appalachian State

It seems like it is just a matter of time before some school comes after him and then offers him what it will take to get him to sign on the dotted line.  The Sun Belt Conference might never produce a New Year’s Six Bowl team, because it generally ranks last among the Group of 5.  Appalachian State might be good enough to play in an upper tier December bowl game if given the chance, but it isn’t likely to happen.  A 12-1 season is quite possible this year, and it will only lead to a bowl like the Camellia, Dollar General, or New Orleans.

Neal Brown–Troy

Brown is exactly like Satterfield.  He has done an incredible job at Troy and should continue to receive attention from other schools looking to fill vacancies.  Beating LSU last year and Nebraska this year will move him onto some school’s short list in December.

Five Coordinators at FBS Schools That Should Become Head Coaches One Day

Dave Arranda–LSU Defensive Coordinator

Mike Bloomgren–Stanford Offensive Coordinator

Tee Martin–USC Offensive Coordinator

Todd Orlando–Texas Defensive Coordinator

Brent Venables–Clemson Defensive Coordinator

 

Five FCS Head Coaches That Could Become FBS Head Coaches

Brian Bohannon–Kennesaw State (An option style coach)

John Grass–Jacksonville State

Lance Guidry–McNeese State

Mike Houston–James Madison

Chris Klieman–North Dakota State

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 4

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Thursday,	September 20
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Temple	Tulsa	8.4	9.6	8.3

 

Friday	September 21
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Central Florida	Florida Atlantic	17.3	16.5	16.6
Illinois	Penn St.	-26.8	-23.9	-28.2
USC	Washington St.	2.8	1.8	3.1

 

Saturday	September 22
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Iowa St.	Akron	18.5	15.2	17.5
Marshall	North Carolina St.	-16.0	-12.5	-14.4
Massachusetts	Charlotte	10.2	9.7	11.0
Indiana	Michigan St.	-20.5	-18.8	-20.5
Maryland	Minnesota	-2.4	-3.4	-3.3
Ball St.	Western Kentucky	1.6	0.6	-0.2
Purdue	Boston College	-10.2	-9.0	-11.1
Syracuse	Connecticut	33.9	32.3	34.3
Miami (Fla.)	Florida Int’l.	32.4	26.6	31.4
North Carolina	Pittsburgh	0.8	0.0	0.6
Florida St.	Northern Illinois	13.6	11.8	13.0
Bowling Green	Miami (O)	-3.6	-5.3	-4.1
Ohio St.	Tulane	37.3	34.7	38.4
Georgia Tech	Clemson	-18.0	-15.8	-19.2
Cincinnati	Ohio U	1.8	2.2	1.0
South Florida	East Carolina	15.4	18.9	17.0
Wake Forest	Notre Dame	-7.7	-6.4	-8.5
Toledo	Nevada	9.0	10.8	9.1
Virginia	Louisville	4.8	5.2	4.4
Georgia St.	Western Michigan	-11.4	-10.3	-11.3
Rutgers	Buffalo	-2.3	-5.5	-5.7
Oregon St.	Arizona	-10.1	-10.8	-11.6
Oregon	Stanford	-5.6	-3.0	-5.5
Tennessee	Florida	-10.9	-8.8	-12.0
Kentucky	Mississippi St.	-12.1	-10.6	-12.9
Michigan	Nebraska	26.9	27.2	29.8
West Virginia	Kansas St.	9.5	10.0	9.8
Ole Miss	Kent St.	26.5	25.3	28.1
Southern Miss.	Rice	14.9	15.1	16.7
Auburn	Arkansas	24.7	26.1	28.6
Oklahoma St.	Texas Tech	14.7	14.3	16.3
SMU	Navy	-1.6	-5.2	-2.3
Louisiana	Coastal Carolina	3.7	2.6	4.1
Arkansas St.	UNLV	2.6	2.3	3.9
Texas	TCU	0.2	-0.4	0.4
Oklahoma	Army	29.5	27.8	30.2
LSU	Louisiana Tech	23.0	20.4	22.9
Baylor	Kansas	4.4	3.3	5.9
Vanderbilt	South Carolina	-7.1	-5.2	-6.3
Memphis	South Alabama	26.8	27.0	27.3
Utah St.	Air Force	13.2	14.6	15.3
UTEP	New Mexico St.	-3.9	-3.1	-4.5
UTSA	Texas St.	11.1	12.4	12.5
UL-Monroe	Troy	-1.2	-2.9	-2.0
Old Dominion	Virginia Tech	-34.2	-29.7	-34.3
Liberty	North Texas	-17.1	-21.5	-17.8
Missouri	Georgia	-14.7	-12.5	-14.9
Alabama	Texas A&M	28.9	28.0	30.4
Iowa	Wisconsin	0.3	0.6	0.1
Washington	Arizona St.	22.5	21.5	25.4
San Diego St.	Eastern Michigan	10.9	10.1	11.5

 

FBS vs. FCS
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Colorado St.	Illinois St.	10.5
Central Michigan	Maine	5.0
Duke	UNC-Central	49.9
Appalachian St.	Gardner-Webb	40.9
BYU	McNeese St.	19.0
Houston	Texas Southern	45.6
Hawaii	Duquesne	27.1

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	139.3	137.2	141.2	139.2
2	Georgia	132.2	128.4	133.6	131.4
3	Clemson	129.8	126.7	130.5	129.0
4	Ohio St.	128.7	126.2	129.3	128.1
5	Washington	126.8	124.4	129.1	126.7
6	Mississippi St.	123.8	121.1	124.4	123.1
7	Oklahoma	122.6	121.3	123.2	122.4
8	Michigan	122.3	121.1	122.8	122.0
9	Penn St.	122.7	119.8	123.2	121.9
10	Michigan St.	122.6	120.3	122.3	121.8
11	Auburn	121.4	120.2	123.6	121.7
12	Stanford	120.0	117.6	120.5	119.4
13	Notre Dame	119.4