The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 27, 2022

PiRate Ratings NFL Football–Week 4: Sept. 29-Oct. 3

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
CincinnatiMiami6.04.65.1
New Orleans Minnesota0.5-0.20.1
AtlantaCleveland-8.5-6.7-7.1
BaltimoreBuffalo-4.1-4.4-4.3
DallasWashington11.010.511.5
DetroitSeattle5.56.75.3
HoustonLA Chargers-7.2-6.0-6.0
IndianapolisTennessee5.44.65.6
N.Y. GiantsChicago4.44.64.5
PhiladelphiaJacksonville12.210.311.4
PittsburghN.Y. Jets7.77.08.4
CarolinaArizona0.70.40.5
Green BayNew England12.210.711.3
Las VegasDenver5.84.55.4
Tampa BayKansas City5.65.35.4
San FranciscoLA Rams2.02.12.4

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
CincinnatiMiami43.5
New Orleans Minnesota42.5
AtlantaCleveland48
BaltimoreBuffalo46.5
DallasWashington45.5
DetroitSeattle45
HoustonLA Chargers47
IndianapolisTennessee44.5
N.Y. GiantsChicago37
PhiladelphiaJacksonville45
PittsburghN.Y. Jets46.5
CarolinaArizona45
Green BayNew England42
Las VegasDenver42.5
Tampa BayKansas City50.5
San FranciscoLA Rams43

New Orleans vs. Minnesota Game played in London

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo111.9112.0112.1112.023.52-1
Miami102.2102.8102.7102.620.53-0
New England98.798.699.298.8211-2
N.Y. Jets93.694.193.093.624.51-2

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Cincinnati105.1104.4104.8104.8231-2
Baltimore104.8104.5104.8104.7232-1
Cleveland102.5101.5101.9102.022.52-1
Pittsburgh98.398.098.498.2221-2

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Indianapolis99.999.599.999.8221-1-1
Tennessee97.697.997.497.622.51-2
Jacksonville97.098.397.597.6222-1
Houston88.190.189.089.020.50-2-1

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City107.6107.1107.6107.4272-1
Las Vegas103.5103.3102.5103.1250-3
Denver100.6101.8100.1100.817.52-1
LA Chargers98.399.197.998.526.51-2

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Philadelphia106.2105.6105.9105.9233-0
Dallas104.3103.2104.2103.923.52-1
Washington95.895.195.295.4221-2
N.Y. Giants93.394.593.993.9192-1

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay107.9106.3107.5107.2212-1
Minnesota99.899.199.699.522.52-1
Detroit95.295.995.895.625.51-2
Chicago91.392.491.991.9182-1

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay110.2109.4110.0109.923.52-1
New Orleans100.398.999.799.6201-2
Carolina95.595.995.695.7211-2
Atlanta91.592.492.392.025.51-2

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
LA Rams104.6104.4104.3104.423.52-1
San Francisco103.6103.5103.8103.619.51-2
Arizona97.898.598.198.1241-2
Seattle92.792.193.592.819.51-2

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

Playoff Projection Seeds
AFC Seeding
1Buffalo
2Kansas City
3Cleveland
4Jacksonville
5Miami
6Baltimore
7Denver
NFC Seeding
1Philadelphia
2Green Bay
3LA Rams
4Tampa Bay
5Dallas
6Minnesota
7San Francisco

Wildcard Round
Kansas City over Denver
Baltimore over Cleveland
Miami over Jacksonville
Green Bay over San Francisco
Dallas over Minnesota
Tampa Bay over Dallas


Divisional Round
Buffalo over Baltimore
Miami over Kansas City
Philadelphia over Dallas
Tampa Bay over Green Bay


Conference Championship
Buffalo over Miami
Philadelphia over Tampa Bay


Super Bowl 57 (Glendale, AZ)
Phialdelphia over Buffalo

September 1, 2022

PiRate Ratings–NFL for Week 1, September 8-12, 2022

This Week’s Margins

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
LA RamsBuffalo3.02.83.0
N.Y. JetsBaltimore-8.8-7.6-8.9
AtlantaNew Orleans-9.7-7.1-9.5
MiamiNew England0.50.7-0.7
CarolinaCleveland-6.9-5.5-6.9
CincinnatiPittsburgh10.410.09.9
ChicagoSan Francisco-11.7-10.1-11.2
DetroitPhiladelphia-7.9-6.2-7.3
HoustonIndianapolis-14.3-11.4-14.1
WashingtonJacksonville9.37.49.1
ArizonaKansas City-4.8-3.9-4.7
LA ChargersLas Vegas-1.8-0.9-2.3
MinnesotaGreen Bay-7.2-5.6-6.5
TennesseeN.Y. Giants11.510.511.2
DallasTampa Bay-0.8-1.4-0.2
SeattleDenver-4.2-6.4-2.5

This Week’s Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
LA RamsBuffalo48
N.Y. JetsBaltimore46.5
AtlantaNew Orleans44
MiamiNew England42.5
CarolinaCleveland42
CincinnatiPittsburgh48.5
ChicagoSan Francisco41.5
DetroitPhiladelphia47.5
HoustonIndianapolis45.5
WashingtonJacksonville44
ArizonaKansas City51.5
LA ChargersLas Vegas51.5
MinnesotaGreen Bay47.5
TennesseeN.Y. Giants42
DallasTampa Bay52.5
SeattleDenver42.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo108.3108.4108.3108.3240-0
New England100.7100.8101.7101.122.50-0
Miami98.298.698.098.3200-0
N.Y. Jets92.993.792.593.0250-0

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Cincinnati105.6104.8105.2105.2250-0
Baltimore104.2103.8103.9104.021.50-0
Cleveland104.2103.1103.9103.7210-0
Pittsburgh98.297.898.398.123.50-0

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Indianapolis103.7102.9103.8103.5240-0
Tennessee100.7101.1100.8100.822.50-0
Jacksonville90.792.190.991.222.50-0
Houston86.989.087.387.721.50-0

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City106.6106.3107.0106.626.50-0
Las Vegas105.2105.1104.8105.025.50-0
Denver101.1102.6100.7101.521.50-0
LA Chargers100.9101.799.9100.9260-0

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas105.5104.3105.7105.2260-0
Philadelphia104.1103.1103.5103.6240-0
Washington97.597.097.497.321.50-0
N.Y. Giants91.793.192.192.319.50-0

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay109.0107.0108.4108.1230-0
Minnesota99.398.999.599.224.50-0
Detroit93.794.493.793.923.50-0
Chicago90.091.390.690.7190-0

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay109.3108.7109.0109.026.50-0
New Orleans101.8100.2101.8101.320.50-0
Carolina94.895.294.594.8210-0
Atlanta89.690.689.890.023.50-0

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
LA Rams107.8107.6107.8107.7240-0
San Francisco104.8104.4104.9104.722.50-0
Arizona98.899.499.299.1250-0
Seattle93.993.295.294.1210-0

Playoff Projections

AFC 1: Buffalo

AFC 2: Kansas City

AFC 3: Cincinnati

AFC 4: Indianapolis

AFC 5: LA Chargers

AFC 6: Las Vegas

AFC 7: Miami

NFC 1: Dallas

NFC 2: LA Rams

NFC 3: Tampa Bay

NFC 4: Green Bay

NFC 5: New Orleans

NFC 6: Minnesota

NFC 7: Arizona

Wildcard Round
Kansas City over Miami
Las Vegas over Cincinnati
LA Chargers over Indianapolis
LA Rams over Arizona
Minnesota over Tampa Bay
Green Bay over New Orleans

Divisional Round
Buffalo over Las Vegas
Kansas City over LA Chargers
Minnesota over Dallas
LA Rams over Green Bay

Conference Championship
Buffalo over Kansas City
LA Rams over Buffalo

Super Bowl 57 (Glendale, AZ)
Buffalo over LA Rams

July 31, 2022

2022 NFL Draft Grades

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:37 am

The first part of the PiRate Ratings NFL updates every year is to grade the NFL Draft. Years ago, I reverse engineered the system I have used ever since to assign each team a score between 0.0 and 5.0.

Without boring everybody with a lengthy explanation for how I come to a draft score for each team, the basics are:

1. I use 8 different pre-season Draft experts’ grading of every player that was drafted along with any unrestricted free agents that signed and carry a grade high enough to matter.

2. In each round, there is a different top score, with the higher the round, the more potential score is available. If a team drafts a top player in the first round, it counts more than if a team drafts the best possible remaining player in the 4th round, but if a team drafts a 1st round talent that falls to the 2nd round, they can score a bonus.

3. If a team doesn’t have a pick in a round, they are not really penalized, but if a team trades down in the draft for more picks than they had, they get a bonus. The reason for this is that 1/3 of all picks in the higher rounds never pan out. The best draft option is to pile up total picks. In other words, the Mike Ditka trade of his entire draft class to Washington for the rights to draft Ricky Williams counts as the worst grade in the history of the NFL Draft. The San Francisco 49ers had the best ever draft in 1986, and they traded down 6 times, eventually drafting eight starters on their Super Bowl Championship teams in 1988 and 1989.

4. The hand-picked draft gurus were selected by looking at what they had predicted in prior years and how accurate their picks turned out to be. If, for example, they gave a 4th round selection glaring grades and panned a 1st round pick as a mistake, and they were shown in later years to be correct, they made my grade to trust as a guru (a lot more in-depth than this one example).

The top grade, 5.0, is not necessarily a perfect draft, just one that has the best chance to pay off in the first year. A grade of 0.0 is the least chance to pay off in the first year. Down the road, these draft classes may be great or terrible, but since the ratings are only constructed to begin the current season, future potential is of no consequence.

Here, in order of best to worst, are the draft grades for each team.

#TeamScore
1Baltimore Ravens5.0
1New York Jets5.0
3Philadelphia Eagles4.8
4Kansas City Chiefs4.4
5Detroit Lions4.2
6New York Giants4.1
7Denver Broncos3.8
7Houston Texans3.8
7Pittsburgh Steelers3.8
10Buffalo Bills3.6
10Tennessee Titans3.6
12Atlanta Falcons3.5
12Green Bay Packers3.5
14Cincinnati Bengals3.4
14Indianapolis Colts3.4
16Las Vegas Raiders3.3
16Los Angeles Chargers3.3
16Seattle Seahawks3.3
19Cleveland Browns3.1
19Jacksonville Jaguars3.1
19Tampa Bay Bucaneers3.1
22Carolina Panthers3.0
22Los Angeles Rams3.0
22Minnesota Vikings3.0
25New Orleans Saints2.9
25Washington Commanders2.9
27Miami Dolphins2.7
28Chicago Bears2.6
28San Francisco 49ers2.6
30Dallas Cowboys2.5
31Arizona Cardinals2.3
32New England Patriots1.9

December 27, 2021

PiRate Ratings–NFL for Week 17, January 2-3, 2022

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
IndianapolisLas Vegas17.216.917.3
ChicagoN.Y. Giants3.33.63.7
N.Y. JetsTampa Bay-17.3-16.9-16.9
BuffaloAtlanta16.716.716.4
DallasArizona5.46.05.6
New OrleansCarolina13.713.114.0
WashingtonPhiladelphia-5.4-5.8-7.1
CincinnatiKansas City-2.2-2.2-2.7
New EnglandJacksonville25.224.626.0
TennesseeMiami5.04.54.1
LA ChargersDenver2.82.72.9
San FranciscoHouston16.016.616.1
SeattleDetroit12.311.611.4
BaltimoreLA Rams-2.2-3.1-3.6
Green BayMinnesota7.77.68.1
PittsburghCleveland0.1-0.30.2

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
IndianapolisLas Vegas50
ChicagoN.Y. Giants35
N.Y. JetsTampa Bay53.5
BuffaloAtlanta49
DallasArizona55
New OrleansCarolina41.5
WashingtonPhiladelphia41.5
CincinnatiKansas City53.5
New EnglandJacksonville38.5
TennesseeMiami44
LA ChargersDenver43.5
San FranciscoHouston47
SeattleDetroit46.5
BaltimoreLA Rams50.5
Green BayMinnesota52
PittsburghCleveland42

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
New England108.9108.7109.1108.9199-6
Buffalo108.2108.1108.4108.224.59-6
Miami99.299.6100.299.718.58-7
N. Y. Jets87.687.887.887.824.54-11

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Cincinnati102.7103.2102.6102.8269-6
Baltimore101.9101.4100.9101.423.58-7
Cleveland99.399.198.699.022.57-8
Pittsburgh97.496.896.897.019.57-7-1

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Indianapolis107.7107.7108.0107.8259-6
Tennessee101.1101.1101.3101.225.510-5
Houston90.790.390.990.722.54-11
Jacksonville86.787.186.086.619.52-13

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City107.9108.3108.4108.227.511-4
Denver99.899.899.699.715.57-8
LA Chargers99.699.599.599.5288-7
Las Vegas93.593.893.793.7258-7

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas106.5107.3106.8106.929.511-4
Philadelphia101.9102.2103.1102.4228-7
N.Y. Giants95.194.894.594.817.54-11
Washington94.594.494.094.319.56-9

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay106.2106.2106.3106.22812-3
Minnesota100.9101.1100.8100.9247-8
Chicago95.995.995.795.817.55-10
Detroit92.392.692.792.524.52-12-1

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay107.4107.2107.2107.32911-4
New Orleans103.3102.3103.2102.920.57-8
Atlanta94.594.394.994.624.57-8
Carolina92.692.292.292.4215-10

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
LA Rams107.1107.6107.5107.42711-4
Arizona104.1104.3104.2104.225.510-5
San Francisco103.7104.0104.0103.924.58-7
Seattle101.6101.3101.1101.3225-10

This Week’s Playoff Projections

If Season Ended Today
AFC
1Kansas City
2Tennessee
3Cincinnati
4Buffalo
5Indianapolis
6New England
7Baltimore

NFC
1Green Bay
2Dallas
3LA Rams
4Tampa Bay
5Arizona
6San Francisco
7Philadelphia
Playoff Projection Seeds
AFC Seeding
1Kansas City
2Tennessee
3Buffalo
4Cincinnati
5Indianapolis
6New England
7LA Chargers

NFC Seeding
1Green Bay
2LA Rams
3Tampa Bay
4Dallas
5Arizona
6Philadelphia
7San Francisco
Wildcard Round
Tennessee over LA Chargers
Buffalo over New England
Indianapolis over Cincinnati
LA Rams over San Francisco
Tampa Bay over Philadelphia
Dallas over Arizona

Divisional Round
Kansas City over Indianapolis
Buffalo over Tennessee
Green Bay over Dallas
LA Rams over Tampa Bay

Conference Championship
Kansas City over Buffalo
LA Rams over Green Bay

Super Bowl 56 (LA)
Kansas City over LA Rams

November 15, 2021

PiRate Ratings NFL–Week 11, November 18-22, 2021

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
AtlantaNew England-8.7-8.6-8.1
ClevelandDetroit12.812.611.8
JacksonvilleSan Francisco-8.0-6.5-7.8
BuffaloIndianapolis8.89.29.6
N.Y. JetsMiami-6.5-6.2-6.8
CarolinaWashington3.83.74.7
ChicagoBaltimore-5.3-4.8-5.2
PhiladelphiaNew Orleans-3.7-2.3-3.1
TennesseeHouston18.820.019.2
MinnesotaGreen Bay-1.6-1.4-2.6
Las VegasCincinnati-1.5-1.9-1.2
SeattleArizona0.0-0.9-0.7
Kansas CityDallas2.51.52.3
LA ChargersPittsburgh1.92.82.5
Tampa BayN.Y. Giants13.813.113.1

PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
AtlantaNew England46.5
ClevelandDetroit50.5
JacksonvilleSan Francisco45
BuffaloIndianapolis49.5
N.Y. JetsMiami43.5
CarolinaWashington40.5
ChicagoBaltimore42
PhiladelphiaNew Orleans43.5
TennesseeHouston51
MinnesotaGreen Bay47
Las VegasCincinnati52.5
SeattleArizona49
Kansas CityDallas58.5
LA ChargersPittsburgh42.5
Tampa BayN.Y. Giants49

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo108.5108.5108.7108.524.56-3
New England106.4106.2106.7106.419.56-4
Miami96.596.697.196.7193-7
N. Y. Jets87.487.987.887.724.52-7

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore103.5103.1103.1103.224.56-3
Cincinnati100.2100.799.9100.3265-4
Pittsburgh100.7100.0100.1100.3185-3-1
Cleveland100.4100.399.5100.1255-5

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tennessee104.9105.1105.6105.227.58-2
Indianapolis102.7102.3102.1102.4255-5
Jacksonville91.292.691.391.721.52-7
Houston89.188.189.388.923.51-8

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City103.8103.7103.5103.7296-4
LA Chargers99.799.799.699.624.55-4
Denver98.198.198.098.116.55-5
Las Vegas95.795.895.795.726.55-4

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas104.3105.2104.2104.629.57-2
Philadelphia99.699.7100.599.921.54-6
N.Y. Giants96.896.996.796.819.53-6
Washington95.795.895.295.619.53-6

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay106.2106.2106.7106.4258-2
Minnesota101.5101.8101.2101.5224-5
Chicago95.295.394.995.117.53-5
Detroit90.690.790.790.725.50-8-1

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay107.5107.1106.8107.129.56-3
New Orleans106.3105.0106.6106.0225-4
Carolina97.097.097.497.2215-5
Atlanta94.894.695.595.0274-5

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Arizona105.8106.4106.4106.2268-2
LA Rams104.7104.9104.5104.7277-3
Seattle102.8102.5102.6102.6233-6
San Francisco102.2102.2102.1102.223.54-5

This Week’s Playoff Projections

If Season Ended Today
AFC
1Tennessee
2Buffalo
3Baltimore
4Kansas City
5Pittsburgh
6New England
7LA Chargers

NFC
1Green Bay
2Arizona
3Dallas
4Tampa Bay
5LA Rams
6New Orleans
7Carolina
Playoff Projection Seeds
AFC Seeding
1Tennessee
2Baltimore
3New England
4Kansas City
5Buffalo
6Pittsburgh
7Indianapolis

NFC Seeding
1Green Bay
2Dallas
3Arizona
4Tampa Bay
5LA Rams
6New Orleans
7Minnesota
Wildcard Round
Baltimore over Indianapolis
New England over Pittsburgh
Kansas City over Buffalo
Dallas over Minnesota
New Orleans over Arizona
Tampa Bay over LA Rams

Divisional Round
Tennessee over Kansas City
New England over Baltimore
Green Bay over New Orleans
Tampa Bay over Dallas

Conference Championship
New England over Tennessee
Tampa Bay over Green Bay

Super Bowl 56 (LA)
Tampa Bay over New England

December 21, 2020

PiRate Ratings For NFL Week 16: December 25-28, 2020

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:29 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
New OrleansMinnesota7.87.98.1
DetroitTampa Bay-10.7-11.1-11.7
Las VegasMiami-0.9-1.8-1.8
N.Y. JetsCleveland-11.5-11.1-12.5
ArizonaSan Francisco4.85.25.1
LA ChargersDenver0.20.30.3
Kansas CityAtlanta9.610.810.3
PittsburghIndianapolis-2.3-2.1-2.2
WashingtonCarolina0.51.10.4
JacksonvilleChicago-9.9-9.8-10.2
BaltimoreN.Y. Giants15.514.715.1
HoustonCincinnati8.77.98.1
SeattleLA Rams2.02.21.9
DallasPhiladelphia-1.6-1.4-1.4
Green BayTennessee3.63.53.7
New EnglandBuffalo-6.0-7.2-7.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
New OrleansMinnesota51.5
DetroitTampa Bay59
Las VegasMiami55
N.Y. JetsCleveland43.5
ArizonaSan Francisco55
LA ChargersDenver42.5
Kansas CityAtlanta53.5
PittsburghIndianapolis43.5
WashingtonCarolina48
JacksonvilleChicago41
BaltimoreN.Y. Giants45.5
HoustonCincinnati45.5
SeattleLA Rams52.5
DallasPhiladelphia50
Green BayTennessee53.5
New EnglandBuffalo41

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

December 22, 2020
A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo106.6107.4107.4107.22211-3
Miami101.4102.4101.9101.925.59-5
New England99.799.298.999.3196-8
N. Y. Jets88.388.987.988.4181-13

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore107.9107.8108.0107.9259-5
Pittsburgh101.2101.4101.3101.318.511-3
Cleveland100.7101.0101.4101.125.510-4
Cincinnati90.891.291.191.019.53-10-1

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Indianapolis105.0105.0105.0105.02510-4
Tennessee103.6103.8104.1103.82910-4
Houston98.097.697.797.8264-10
Jacksonville89.889.589.589.621.51-13

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City109.9110.2110.1110.127.513-1
Las Vegas99.199.098.698.929.57-7
Denver97.197.097.197.1205-9
LA Chargers96.296.496.496.322.55-9

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Washington98.298.398.298.2216-8
Philadelphia97.897.797.397.623.54-9-1
Dallas94.794.894.494.626.55-9
N.Y. Giants93.994.694.494.320.55-9

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay105.7105.8106.3105.924.511-3
Chicago100.8100.3100.7100.619.57-7
Minnesota98.497.997.998.025.56-8
Detroit94.193.793.693.8285-9

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay105.8105.7106.2105.9319-5
New Orleans104.7104.3104.5104.52610-4
Atlanta102.3101.4101.8101.8264-10
Carolina98.798.298.798.6274-10

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Seattle103.5103.9103.8103.828.510-4
LA Rams103.6103.7103.9103.7249-5
Arizona103.0102.7102.8102.8298-6
San Francisco99.699.199.199.3265-9

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1Kansas City
2Buffalo
3Cleveland
4Indianapolis
5Pittsburgh
6Tennessee
7Baltimore

NFC Seeding
1New Orleans
2Seattle
3Green Bay
4Washington
5Tampa Bay
6LA Rams
7Chicago

Wildcard Round
Buffalo over Baltimore
Cleveland over Tennessee
Indianapolis over Pittsburgh
Seattle over Chicago
Green Bay over LA Rams
Tampa Bay over Washington

Divisional Round
Kansas City over Indianapolis
Cleveland over Buffalo
Tampa Bay over New Orleans
Green Bay over Seattle

Conference Championship
Kansas City over Cleveland
Green Bay over Tampa Bay

Super Bowl
Kansas City over Green Bay

October 15, 2020

PiRate Picks for October 15-19, 2020

That Virus Changes Everything–Injuries Not So Much!

We had a nice variety of games ready to feature here this week, but then that little tiny virus cancelled two of the games we were ready to play and greatly altered a third, making it unplayable. You can obviously determine the three college games we refer to in the above sentence.

A crucial injury in the NFL might have made you think we would avoid a certain team like the plague, yet we are not only making a selection involving said team, we are making a selection in that team’s favor.

You will also notice that we are playing opposite sides of the same college game this week, going with the underdog against a spread that our ratings indicate is too high, while picking the favorite to win in a money line parlay. It is not a mistake; this was a deliberate choice to hopefully hit an unorthodox middle.

Before you get all gung ho about these selections, remember that we do this only for mathematical (nerdy) fun. We never actually wager real money on these selections, and we highly advise you to refrain from using these selections as advice. This statement is repeated every week, but like people that still text while driving, a group of you will immediately place wagers on these selections to try to receive the same parlay odds.

Before revealing today’s selections, let’s do a little review of last week’s selections and how we are performing year to date with our imaginary bank roll that never runs out of fresh imaginary $100 bills.

Last week, we issued 12 selections and won half of them. It was a profitable week, because we were 3-0 on money line parlays with payouts of +295, +141, and +166.60. At $100 imaginary per wager, we invested $1,200 in nonexistent currency and received $1,470.01 for a proftiable return on investment of 22.5%.

For the year, we are now up 7.94% in the profit column. But, this by no means indicates that we are going to stay in the black for the remainder of the season.

Additionally, the way our selections won last week was 180° different from the way we won in prior weeks. It was straight wagering that was unusually accurate heading into last week’s selections, while the exotic wagers were in the toilet.

Last week, the straight wagers lost a little, while the exotics won big. So, we cannot guess which style of wagers will do better in any one week. Thus, if you choose to pick just one or two of our selections, you are really taking a double gamble with your investment.

Just as this edition was about to publish, word has come out on the Twitterverse that the Atlanta Falcons have just reported a rash of new positives, and their facilities have been closed. We have a selection involving the Falcons, so by the time you see this, the Vegas lines may have changed.

And, we offer our condolences to the family of former NFL player Fred Dean, who passed away as a result of the virus. Let’s hope the biggest loser is the virus, as it is beaten like Georgia Tech over Cumberland.

Here are our selections for this week. Stay well!

Date:10/15-10/19
College Wagers
SelectionOpponentLine
1. HoustonBYU+5.5
2. KentuckyTennessee+6
3. Florida Intl.CharlotteCancelled


4. Money Line +143.55
Must WinOpponentOdds
SMUTulane
TennesseeKentucky+143.55
Notre DameLouisville


5. Money Line +152.83
Must WinOpponentOdds
Texas A&MMiss. St.
Middle Tenn.North Texas+152.83
N. CarolinaFlorida St.


NFL Wagers
SelectionOpponentLine
6. DenverNew England+10
7. DallasArizona+2


8. 10-point Teaser Parlay
TeamTeamOdds
N.Y. GiantsWashingtonO32.5
PhiladelphiaBaltimoreO37.5
MiamiN.Y. JetsO37


9. Money Line Parlay +142.97
Must WinOpponentOdds
MinnesotaAtlanta
PittsburghCleveland+142.97


10. Money Line Parlay +110.23
Must WinOpponentOdds
BaltimorePhiladelphia
IndianapolisCincinnati+110.23
MiamiN.Y. Jets

October 5, 2020

PiRate Ratings–NFL Football For Week 5: October 8-11, 2020

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:36 pm

This Week’s NFL Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBiasTotal
ChicagoTampa Bay-2.5-3.1-2.849.5
AtlantaCarolina2.11.41.754
TennesseeBuffalo-1.2-2.0-1.041.5
Kansas CityLas Vegas13.914.414.948.5
New EnglandDenver6.06.16.036.5
N.Y. JetsArizona-6.2-4.4-7.148.5
PittsburghPhiladelphia6.37.16.941
WashingtonLA Rams-5.1-5.1-6.147
BaltimoreCincinnati16.415.816.749.5
HoustonJacksonville7.26.66.746
San FranciscoMiami13.011.113.251.5
ClevelandIndianapolis-2.5-2.6-2.245.5
DallasN.Y. Giants8.98.69.149.5
SeattleMinnesota7.18.07.554
New OrleansLA Chargers10.39.79.549

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

10/6/2020
A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo102.4103.3102.7102.8184-0
New England101.4101.2101.4101.3202-2
Miami95.896.995.596.126.51-3
N. Y. Jets90.891.989.690.8200-4
NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore109.3109.2109.8109.425.53-1
Pittsburgh102.2102.8102.3102.4183-0
Cleveland99.499.499.999.624.53-1
Cincinnati94.995.495.195.1241-2-1
SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Indianapolis103.4103.5103.6103.5213-1
Tennessee99.799.8100.299.923.53-0
Houston99.098.298.498.5250-4
Jacksonville93.393.193.293.2211-3
WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City109.9110.5110.5110.3244-0
Las Vegas98.098.197.697.924.52-2
Denver97.997.697.997.816.51-3
LA Chargers97.497.598.097.620.51-3
N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas99.799.899.599.7271-3
Philadelphia97.497.296.997.1231-2-1
Washington94.594.594.194.421.51-3
N.Y. Giants92.893.292.492.822.50-4
NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay105.7105.7106.2105.9244-0
Chicago100.399.7100.3100.117.53-1
Minnesota99.999.699.999.8251-3
Detroit95.195.295.095.126.51-3
SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
New Orleans105.7105.2105.5105.528.52-2
Tampa Bay104.3104.2104.5104.4323-1
Atlanta99.197.998.698.527.50-4
Carolina98.597.998.498.326.52-2
WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
San Francisco106.3105.5106.2106.0252-2
Seattle104.9105.6105.3105.3294-0
LA Rams102.1102.1102.7102.325.53-1
Arizona99.098.398.898.728.52-2

September 22, 2020

PiRate Ratings–NFL for Week 3

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:50 am

PiRate Rating Spreads For Week 3

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBiasTotal
JacksonvilleMiami3.82.44.646.5
AtlantaChicago1.71.01.643
BuffaloLA Rams1.92.90.741.5
ClevelandWashington3.93.64.244
MinnesotaTennessee1.30.90.845.5
New EnglandLas Vegas4.33.64.342.5
N.Y. GiantsSan Francisco-8.5-7.4-8.949.5
PhiladelphiaCincinnati4.74.14.245.5
PittsburghHouston4.25.64.341.5
IndianapolisN.Y. Jets9.98.510.440.5
LA ChargersCarolina5.46.26.747
DenverTampa Bay-1.1-1.0-1.248
ArizonaDetroit10.49.710.954.5
SeattleDallas6.36.46.152.5
New OrleansGreen Bay4.33.83.949
BaltimoreKansas City7.16.47.650

PiRate Ratings For Week 3

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo101.3102.3101.2101.6162-0
New England100.8100.4100.8100.719.51-1
Miami93.795.093.394.0260-2
N. Y. Jets93.494.692.693.5190-2
NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore111.5111.4112.2111.725.52-0
Pittsburgh102.0102.6101.9102.2182-0
Cleveland97.297.097.397.2231-1
Cincinnati94.394.694.194.3230-2
SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Indianapolis101.3101.1101.1101.121.51-1
Tennessee99.9100.0100.3100.122.52-0
Houston100.399.5100.1100.023.50-2
Jacksonville96.095.996.496.120.51-1
WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City106.9107.5107.1107.224.52-0
Las Vegas99.599.899.599.6232-0
Denver98.998.898.998.916.50-2
LA Chargers98.398.599.298.7201-1
N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas100.8101.1101.0101.024.51-1
Philadelphia96.996.796.396.622.50-2
Washington95.395.495.195.3211-1
N.Y. Giants94.594.994.194.524.50-2
NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay104.2104.2104.5104.3232-0
Chicago100.299.7100.2100.0162-0
Minnesota99.298.999.199.0230-2
Detroit93.994.093.693.8260-2
SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
New Orleans106.5106.0106.4106.3261-1
Tampa Bay102.5102.3102.5102.531.51-1
Atlanta99.998.799.799.4270-2
Carolina96.095.295.495.6270-2
WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
San Francisco106.0105.3106.0105.8251-1
Seattle104.6105.0104.6104.8282-0
LA Rams102.5102.4103.5102.825.52-0
Arizona101.8101.2102.0101.728.52-0

December 31, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For December 31-January 5, 2019

Happy New Year to all our readers

 

This should be the year where we all see clearly.  2020 isn’t 2010 or 2005 when we could all be quite far-sighted, but after this year, we all become nearsighted.  We will be blind in another 70 years!

If that looks like nonsense to you, then you should consider that what follows makes the above look like rocket science.

Once again, we are issuing picks against the spread as entertainment purposes only.  These are not our more scientific Davey19 picks that enjoyed an experimental winning season.  So, please do not wager real money based on what you see below.

Because games are now down to a minimum, we do not have any great teaser or money line parlays through Sunday’s playoff games.  We are going with straight margin selections.  Enjoy, but in order to enjoy, you should keep your wallet in your pockets.

 

 

College Bowl Games

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Virginia Tech

Kentucky

2.5

Va. Tech

Arizona St.

Florida St.

4

Florida St.

Wyoming

Georgia St.

7.5

Georgia St.

Utah

Texas

7.5

Texas

Wisconsin

Oregon

3

Oregon

Tennessee

Indiana

2

Tennessee

 

NFL Wildcard Playoffs

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Houston

Buffalo

3

Buffalo

New England

Tennessee

4.5

New England

Seattle

Philadelphia

2.5

Philadelphia

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