The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 8, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for The Divisional Playoff Round: January 12-13, 2019

NFL Divisional Playoff Round Ratings and Information

 

Saturday, January 12, 2019

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs

Time: 4:35 PM Eastern Standard

TV: NBC

Pirate Ratings Spreads

PiRate: Kansas City by 6.4 

Mean: Kansas City by 7.2

Bias: Kansas City by 5.7

Total: 55

Expected Score: Kansas City 31  Indianapolis 24

———————————————————————————-

Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams

Time: 8:15 PM Eastern Standard

TV: Fox 

Pirate Ratings Spreads

PiRate:  Los Angeles by 8.5

Mean: Los Angeles by 8.8

Bias: Los Angeles by 8.8

Total: 49.5

Expected Score: Los Angeles 30  Dallas 21

—————————————————————————-

Sunday, January 13, 2019

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots

Time: 1:05 PM Eastern Standard

TV: CBS

PiRate Ratings Spreads

PiRate: New England by 3.5

Mean: New England by 2.8

Bias: New England by 2.7

Total: 45.5

Expected Score: New England 24  Los Angeles 21

———————————————————————————-

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints

Time: 4:40 PM Eastern Standard

TV: Fox

PiRate Ratings Spreads

PiRate: New Orleans by 12.8 

Mean: New Orleans by 12.5

Bias: New Orleans by 12.4

Total: 49

Expected Score: New Orleans 31  Philadelphia 17

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January 4, 2019

PiRate Ratings Selections for The College Football National Championship Game & The NFL Wildcard Playoff Round

Final Land Sharp Selections

The Land Sharps are limping home to the finish, as the Bowl season did not go so well for our five friends.  Let’s give them all some props for faring so well during the regular season.  It isn’t easy to stay above the magic 52.4% success rate that a sports investor needs to return a profit, and all five did so throughout the regular season.

Now, here’s something else you should know.  If you are a regular reader here, you may recall just after the bowls and playoffs were announced, that we told you about our experiment in playing the Money Line on every bowl game and by investing the identical amount on the underdog to win outright.  We tested this out last year with a healthy profit.

If last year was a healthy profit, this year was a giant windfall!  Friends, this method drained the imaginary money from the imaginary sports book like it was Jesse and Frank James robbing it.  The return on investment was over 61%, as 16 of the 38 underdogs won outright, returning an average of $289 per upset.  If you had the funds and could afford to put down $10,000 on the Underdog on the 39 games (which became 38 after the postponement of the former Heart of Dallas Bowl), these money line wagers would have returned just under a quarter million dollars.  WOW!

Now, to make it even better.  Had you only played the 36 bowl games and not the two playoff games, you would have gone 16-20 and your return on investment would have been 76.5%!  Where else can you get a 76.5% return on your investment in 17 days?

Here are the final Land Sharp Picks for the National Championship Game.  Our Land Sharps made these selections earlier in the week when the going odds were:

Alabama – 5.5

Clemson +7

Over 59.5

Under 60 

 

Three of the Land Sharps selected Clemson and took the points

Cal Gal Tiffany, Dean615, and Stewed Meat

Two of the Land Sharps selected Alabama and gave the points

Buckeye Michelle and Friday Dog 13

 

Four of the Land Sharps took the OVER

Cal Gal Tiffany, Dean615, Buckeye Michelle, and Friday Dog 13

One Land Sharp took the UNDER

Stewed Meat

 

As for the PiRates, we issued our ratings earlier this week, and they showed that Alabama is favored by 1 to 2 points, so if you go by our ratings, the play would be Clemson but without a lot of confidence.  As for the Total, our estimate is basically right on the line, so we would lay off the total unless you tease it.

 

The PiRate Ratings NFL Wildcard Playoff Teasers

Once playoff season begins, there are fewer and fewer chances to play our successful teasers, but 2018 was a very good one for us, as our NFL Teasers returned a neat little imaginary profit.  We hope you understand that our wagering is only hypothetical, as no real currency ever changes hands, and we highly encourage you not to lose your mortgage payment by relying on our selections.

We have two 13-point teaser selections for this week’s Wildcard Round.  One is a four-team parlay on sides, and one is a four-team parlay on totals.  These parlays both have 12-10 odds.

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Indianapolis Houston 12 Houston
Dallas Seattle 15 Seattle
Baltimore L.A. Chargers 16 L.A. Chargers
Chicago Philadelphia 19.5 Philadelphia

 

Team Team Total Pick
Houston Indianapolis 61.5 UNDER
Dallas Seattle 30 OVER
Baltimore L.A. Chargers 28.5 OVER
Chicago Philadelphia 28 OVER

 

December 31, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for The Wildcard Playoff Round: January 5-6, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Houston Indianapolis 2.0 2.7 2.1 49.5
Dallas Seattle -1.6 -1.9 -2.8 44.5
Baltimore L.A. Chargers 2.6 2.4 2.4 43
Chicago Philadelphia 5.5 5.5 6.4 44.5

The Wildcard Playoff Schedule

Saturday,  January 5, 2019

4:35 PM Eastern Standard Time

TV: ESPN

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

 

8:15 PM Eastern Standard Time

TV: Fox Network

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys

 

Sunday, January 6, 2109

1:05 PM Eastern Standard Time

TV: CBS

Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens

 

4:40 PM Eastern Standard Time

TV: NBC

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears

 

For the Divisional Playoff Round

The lower remaining seed in the AFC will play at Kansas City on Saturday, January 12, on NBC at 4:35 PM EST

 

The higher remaining seed in the NFC will play at the Los Angeles Rams on Saturday, January 12, on Fox Network at 8:15 PM EST

 

The higher remaining seed in the AFC will play at New England on Sunday, January 13, on CBS at 1:05 PM EST

 

The lower remaining seed in the NFC will play at New Orleans on Sunday, January 13, on Fox Network at 4:40 PM EST

Ratings of the Playoff Teams

Playoff Team PiRate Mean Bias Avg. Total W-L
New Orleans 112.3 112.3 112.3 112.3 27 13-3
Kansas City 106.8 107.0 106.6 106.8 30.5 12-4
LA Rams 106.5 106.7 106.3 106.5 29 13-3
Chicago 104.9 105.1 105.8 105.3 21.5 12-4
New England 105.0 105.1 104.9 105.0 22.5 11-5
Seattle 104.6 104.7 105.2 104.8 24 10-6
LA Chargers 104.3 105.0 104.8 104.7 23 12-4
Baltimore 104.5 104.9 104.7 104.7 20 10-6
Indianapolis 102.9 102.3 103.3 102.8 25.5 10-6
Houston 102.4 102.5 103.0 102.6 24 11-5
Philadelphia 102.4 102.6 102.5 102.5 23 9-7
Dallas 100.5 100.3 99.9 100.2 20.5 10-6

 

Note: The College Basketball Bracket Gurus will debut next week.  Most of the gurus are enjoying vacations this week and did not submit their data to us.

December 28, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for December 29- January 1 Bowls and NFL Week 17

This is a very busy day here on the PiRate ship, as we will debut our 2018-19 version of PiRate Ratings Basketball later today.

The Land Sharps have been coming down to Earth since their blistering hot November, as December has not been kind to our five friends.  At the same time, the PiRate Ratings picks have continued to win in December, especially the Bowl game Money Lines, where we have experimented with playing the underdog in every game and finding the most favorable underdog Money Line odds.  With underdogs winning all three games on Thursday, the Return on Investment for this system to date is now 64.16%!  This includes a push in the Boston College and Boise State game that was cancelled due to severe lightning.

This Week’s Land Sharp Picks

Cal Gal Tiffany

Nevada -1 vs. Arkansas St.

Central Florida +8 vs. LSU

Texas +14 vs. Georgia

 

Stewed Meat

Mississippi St. -7 vs. Auburn

Penn St. -6 vs. Kentucky

Texas +14 vs. Georgia

 

Dean 615

Florida +6 vs. Michigan

Notre Dame +12.5 vs. Clemson

Oklahoma +15 vs. Alabama

 

Buckeye Michelle

Oklahoma St. +9 vs. Missouri

Ohio State – 6.5 vs. Washington

Texas +14 vs. Georgia

 

Friday Dog 13

Auburn -3 vs. Purdue

Michigan -5.5 vs. Florida

Clemson -12 vs. Notre Dame

 

The PiRate Ratings Picks

10-point Teasers
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Houston Jacksonville 17 Jacksonville
Green Bay Detroit 19 Detroit
New England N.Y. Jets 24.5 N.Y. Jets
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Minnesota Chicago 14.5 Chicago
Kansas City Oakland 24.5 Oakland
Philadelphia Washington 17.5 Washington
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
L.A. Rams San Francisco 0.5 L.A.Rams
L.A. Chargers Denver 17 Denver
Tennessee Indianapolis 7 Indianapolis
Team Team Total Pick
Houston Jacksonville 50 UNDER
Green Bay Detroit 34.5 OVER
Atlanta Tampa Bay 61.5 UNDER
Team Team Total Pick
New England N.Y. Jets 35 OVER
Chicago Minnesota 30 OVER
Oakland Kansas City 42.5 OVER
Team Team Total Pick
Philadelphia Washington 32 OVER
L.A.Rams San Francisco 38.5 OVER
L.A. Chargers Denver 31.5 OVER
13-point Teasers
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
New Orleans Carolina 21.5 Carolina
Miami Buffalo 8 Buffalo
Pittsburgh Cincinnati 3 Pittsburgh
Baltimore Cleveland 18.5 Cleveland
Team Team Total Pick
Pittsburgh Cincinnati 58.5 UNDER
Cleveland Baltimore 27.5 OVER
Arizona Seattle 25.5 OVER
Indianapolis Tennessee 30.5 OVER
Favorite Underdog Moneyline Pick
Michigan Florida +210 Florida
South Carolina Virginia +185 Virginia
Nevada Arkansas St. +105 Arkansas St.
Clemson Notre Dame +380 Notre Dame
Alabama Oklahoma +490 Oklahoma
Cincinnati Virginia Tech +195 Virginia Tech
Stanford Pittsburgh +195 Pittsburgh
Oregon Michigan St. +120 Michigan St.
Missouri Oklahoma St. +315 Oklahoma St.
Utah Northwestern +255 Northwestern
Texas A&M North Carolina St. +248 North Carolina St.
Mississippi St. Iowa +245 Iowa
LSU Central Florida +260 Central Florida
Penn St. Kentucky +220 Kentucky
Ohio St. Washington +220 Washington
Georgia Texas +410 Texas

 

Remember: Neither the Land Sharps or the PiRates wager real money on the selections presented here at this site.  We recommend you do the same.  This is for entertainment purposes only.

Check back at this site Friday afternoon for our first college basketball report of the season, featuring our top 25, picks of games involving teams in power conferences, and a little something else.

 

December 25, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 17: December 30, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
New Orleans Carolina 10.5 11.0 10.7 50
Houston Jacksonville 7.6 8.1 8.6 42
Green Bay Detroit 5.2 5.9 5.8 48
Tampa Bay Atlanta -2.1 -1.8 -1.0 50.5
N.Y. Giants Dallas 0.5 0.7 1.3 42.5
New England N.Y. Jets 12.4 13.0 12.7 47.5
Buffalo Miami 1.4 1.9 1.8 40
Minnesota Chicago 0.8 0.9 0.0 42.5
Kansas City Oakland 17.0 17.1 16.9 52.5
Pittsburgh Cincinnati 15.1 15.2 15.5 48
Baltimore Cleveland 9.7 9.8 9.2 44
Washington Philadelphia -8.2 -8.9 -8.4 45.5
Seattle Arizona 15.2 15.9 16.4 41
L.A. Rams San Francisco 13.5 13.7 13.5 49
Denver L.A. Chargers -4.7 -5.5 -5.4 43
Tennessee Indianapolis -2.0 -1.4 -2.6 45

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 105.0 105.1 104.9 105.0 22.5 10-5
N. Y. Jets 95.1 94.6 94.7 94.8 25 4-11
Miami 94.0 93.6 93.6 93.7 23 7-8
Buffalo 92.9 93.0 92.9 92.9 17 5-10
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 107.2 107.4 107.4 107.3 24.5 8-6-1
Baltimore 104.5 104.9 104.7 104.7 20 9-6
Cleveland 97.7 98.1 98.5 98.1 24 7-7-1
Cincinnati 95.1 95.2 94.9 95.1 23.5 6-9
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Indianapolis 102.9 102.3 103.3 102.8 25.5 9-6
Houston 102.4 102.5 103.0 102.6 24.5 10-5
Tennessee 98.8 98.9 98.8 98.8 19.5 9-6
Jacksonville 97.3 96.9 96.9 97.0 17.5 5-10
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 106.8 107.0 106.6 106.8 31 11-4
LA Chargers 104.3 105.0 104.8 104.7 23.5 11-4
Denver 98.7 98.5 98.4 98.5 19.5 6-9
Oakland 92.2 92.4 92.3 92.3 21.5 4-11
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 102.4 102.6 102.5 102.5 23.5 8-7
Dallas 100.5 100.3 99.9 100.2 19.5 9-6
N.Y. Giants 97.5 97.5 97.7 97.6 23 5-10
Washington 94.3 93.7 94.1 94.0 22 7-8
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Chicago 104.9 105.1 105.8 105.3 22 11-4
Minnesota 103.3 103.4 103.3 103.3 20.5 8-6-1
Green Bay 99.8 100.2 99.7 99.9 25 6-8-1
Detroit 97.6 97.3 96.8 97.2 23 5-10
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 112.3 112.3 112.3 112.3 27 13-2
Atlanta 100.0 99.9 99.8 99.9 25.5 6-9
Carolina 99.8 99.3 99.5 99.5 23 6-9
Tampa Bay 95.9 96.1 96.8 96.3 25 5-10
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 106.5 106.7 106.3 106.5 28 12-3
Seattle 104.6 104.7 105.2 104.8 23.5 9-6
San Francisco 95.5 95.5 95.3 95.4 21 4-11
Arizona 91.9 91.3 91.2 91.5 17.5 3-12

 

The Playoff Scenarios

AFC

1.) Kansas City Chiefs

If the Chiefs beat Oakland, they win the #1 seed in the AFC and will have homefield advantage throughout the playoffs to the Super Bowl.

If the Chiefs lose to Oakland, then they can fall to the #5 seed if the Chargers beat Denver.  If the Chargers also lose, then the Chiefs will still win the AFC West, but they could fall to the #2 seed if New England or Houston wins, and the #3 seed if both New England and Houston win.

 

2.) New England Patriots

If the Patriots beat the New York Jets, they can be no worse than the #2 seed no matter what Houston does.  If the Pats beat the Jets and Kansas City loses to Oakland, New England will grab the #1 seed and get homefield advantage throughout the AFC Playoffs.

If the Patriots lose to the Jets, and Baltimore beats Cleveland, then the Patriots lose a first round bye and will be the #3 seed if Indianapolis beats Tennessee and the #4 seed if Tennessee beats Indianapolis.

If the Patriots lose and Baltimore also loses, New England retains the #2 seed if Indianapolis beats Tennessee, but they fall to the #3 seed if Baltimore loses but Tennessee beats Indianapolis.

 

3.) Houston Texas

Houston can still earn the #1 seed, if the Texans beat Jacksonville, while Kansas City and New England both lose.  If Houston wins but either Kansas City or New England win their games, the Texans would be the #2 seed.  If Houston wins but Kansas City and New England both win, then Houston gets the #3 seed.

If Houston loses to Jacksonville, then the Texans fall into a wildcard spot, as the winner of the Tennessee-Indianapolis game would win the AFC South.  Houston would fall to a #6 seed with a loss.

 

4. ) Baltimore Ravens or Pittsburgh Steelers

If the Ravens beat Cleveland, they are the AFC North Champion.  They can earn the #2 seed if Houston and New England both lose.  They will earn the #3 seed if they win and either New England or Houston loses.  They will earn the #4 seed if both New England and Houston win.

If the Ravens lose, but Pittsburgh also loses, they will be the #4 seed, but if the Ravens lose and Pittsburgh wins, the Steelers will win the AFC North, and the Ravens will be eliminated.  In the rare event that Pittsburgh wins and Baltimore ties Cleveland, then Pittsburgh will win the tiebreaker and become the AFC North champions and #4 Seed.

If Pittsburgh and Baltimore both win, then the Steelers could only squeak in as a Wildcard team if Indianapolis and Tennessee were to tie.

 

5.) Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers can still win the AFC West and wrap up the top seed in the AFC if they beat Denver and Oakland beats Kansas City.  If Kansas City and the Chargers both win, then the Chargers are the #5 seed.

If the Chargers lose to Denver, then they are the #5 seed regardless of the outcomes of any other games.

 

6.) Tennessee Titans or Indianapolis Colts

Since this is the Sunday Night Game, both teams will know their fate when this game kicks off.

First, the winner of this game will be in the playoffs, while the loser will not be in the playoffs.  If the game ties, then either Indianapolis will be in the playoffs and Tennessee will be out, or both teams will be eliminated if Pittsburgh and Baltimore both win.

If Houston loses earlier in the day, then the winner of this game will win the AFC South.

If Tennessee beats Indianapolis:

The Titans can move up as high as the #2 seed if they beat the Colts, while New England, Houston, and Baltimore all lose.  The Titans can earn the #3 seed, if they beat the Colts, while New England and Houston lose but Baltimore wins or While Houston loses and Baltimore loses.  The Titans can earn the #4 seed if they beat the Colts, while Houston loses, and New England and Baltimore win.

If Tennessee beats Indianapolis, while Baltimore, New England, and Houston win, the Titans are the #6 seed.

If Indianapolis beats Tennessee:

The Colts can move no higher than a #3 seed if Houston loses to Jacksonville and Baltimore loses to Cleveland, no matter what happens in the other games.  If Indianapolis wins, Houston loses, and Baltimore wins, then the Colts are the #4 seed.

If Indianapolis wins and Houston wins, then the Colts are the #6 seed

 

NFC

1.) New Orleans Saints

The Saints have clinched the #1 overall seed in the NFC and have homefield advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.  Thus, they can rest Drew Brees and other key players this week in a meaningless game against Carolina.

 

2.) Los Angeles Rams

If the Rams beat San Francisco or Chicago loses to Minnesota, the Rams are the #2 seed.

If the Rams lose to the 49ers, while Chicago beats Minnesota, the Rams fall to a #3 seed and lose a first round bye.

 

3.) Chicago Bears

If Chicago wins and the Rams lose, the Bears get a bye and the #2 seed.

If Chicago wins and the Rams win, or if the Bears lose, they will be the #3 seed.

 

4.) Dallas Cowboys

Dallas is the automatic #4 seed, win or lose against the Giants.  The Cowboys will rest their starters in a meaningless game that could be Eli Manning’s last in a Giants’ uniform.

 

5.) Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks have clinched a Wildcard berth in the NFC Playoffs.  If Seattle wins, or Minnesota loses, then the Seahawks are the #5 seed.  If Seattle loses and Minnesota wins, the Seahawks fall to the #6 seed.

 

6.) Minnesota Vikings or Philadelphia Eagles

If Minnesota beats Chicago, the Vikings earn a Wildcard Bid, and would be the #5 seed if Seattle loses and the #6 seed if Seattle wins.

If Minnesota loses, then if Philadelphia beats Washington, the Eagles will earn the Wildcard bid and #6 seed, and the Vikings would be eliminated.

If both Minnesota and Philadelphia lose, then the Vikings sneak in as the #6 seed.

In the rare event that Minnesota ties Chicago, the Vikings would still be the #6 seed at 8-6-2, even if Philadelphia wins to get to 9-7.

 

 

 

 

December 21, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for December 22-28 Bowls and NFL Week 16

The Land Sharps’ results from last week cannot be published yet, because all five have action on games being played today.

We will note that to date, the favorite has won every bowl game, something that is totally opposite of last year’s bowl season.  Not that it will continue, but if you are a money line player, you should maybe see this as a trend that maybe this year the Line originators in Nevada did a better job than last year, when over half of the games were won outright by the underdog.

Here are this week’s Land Sharp Picks for bowl games beginning, Saturday, December 22 through Friday, December 28.

 

1.) Cal Gal Tiffany

Hawaii  Pk vs.  Louisiana Tech
Washington St. -3 vs.  Iowa State
Georgia Tech  -5 vs.  Minnesota

 

2.) Stewed Meat

Troy +2 vs. Buffalo
Boise State  -2 vs. Boston College
Army -5 vs.  Houston

 

3.) Buckeye Michelle

California -1 vs. TCU
Houston +5 vs. Army
Miami (Fla.)  -3 vs.  Wisconsin

 

4.) Dean615

TCU +1 vs California
Miami (Fla.)  -3 vs.  Wisconsin
Duke +4.5 vs. Temple

 

5.) Friday Dog 13

Duke +4.5 vs. Temple
Vanderbilt -3.5 vs. Baylor
Washington St.  -3 vs. Iowa St.

 

The PiRate Ratings Picks

Our teaser plays moderated back to mediocre last week.  Let’s hope it is a bump in the road and not a new trend, because we are sticking with our teaser plays.

10-point teasers
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Tennessee Washington 13.5 Washington
Tampa Bay Dallas 3 Dallas
N.Y. Giants Indianapolis 1 Indianapolis
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Philadelphia Houston 11.5 Houston
Miami Jacksonville 14 Jacksonville
Green Bay N.Y. Jets 13 N.Y. Jets
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Cleveland Cincinnati 20 Cincinnati
Detroit Minnesota 4 Minnesota
New England Buffalo 3.5 New England
Team Team Total Pick
Tennessee Washington 27 OVER
L.A. Chargers Baltimore 33 OVER
Indianapolis N.Y. Giants 36.5 OVER
Team Team Total Pick
Miami Jacksonville 48.5 UNDER
N.Y. Jets Green Bay 36.5 OVER
Cincinnati Cleveland 34 OVER
Team Team Total Pick
Minnesota Detroit 32 OVER
New England Buffalo 54.5 UNDER
Atlanta Carolina 33.5 OVER
Team Team Total Pick
Chicago San Francisco 33 OVER
L.A. Rams Arizona 34 OVER
Pittsburgh New Orleans 63 UNDER
13-point teaser
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Baltimore L.A. Chargers 9 L.A. Chargers
Atlanta Carolina 16 Carolina
L.A. Rams Arizona 1.5 L.A. Rams
Kansas City Seattle 16 Seattle

Notice:  The Land Sharps and the PiRate Ratings publish this information for entertainment purposes only.  None of this group actually wagers real money on their picks, and we encourage you not to do so either.

 

 

 

December 18, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 16: December 20-24, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Tennessee Washington 6.9 7.5 6.8 41.5
L.A. Chargers Baltimore 4.8 5.2 5.4 44.5
Dallas Tampa Bay 7.2 6.8 5.7 44.5
Indianapolis N.Y. Giants 9.0 8.5 9.4 47.5
Philadelphia Houston 3.2 3.4 2.7 46.5
Miami Jacksonville -0.2 0.1 0.3 42
N.Y. Jets Green Bay -2.4 -3.3 -2.7 48
Cleveland Cincinnati 4.8 4.8 5.6 47.5
Detroit Minnesota -1.2 -1.5 -1.6 44.5
New England Buffalo 15.5 15.8 15.6 39.5
Carolina Atlanta 3.5 3.5 4.0 50
San Francisco Chicago -6.7 -6.7 -7.7 45
Arizona L.A. Rams -10.5 -11.4 -10.9 47
New Orleans Pittsburgh 8.0 7.8 8.0 50.5
Seattle Kansas City -0.2 -0.3 0.5 52.5
Oakland Denver -6.2 -6.0 -6.2 41

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 105.2 105.4 105.2 105.3 22.5 9-5
N. Y. Jets 94.9 94.4 94.5 94.6 24 4-10
Miami 94.6 94.3 94.4 94.4 23.5 7-7
Buffalo 92.7 92.7 92.6 92.6 17 5-9
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 107.0 107.2 107.1 107.1 24 8-5-1
Baltimore 103.3 103.6 103.3 103.4 20.5 8-6
Cleveland 97.5 97.8 98.3 97.9 24 6-7-1
Cincinnati 95.3 95.5 95.1 95.3 23.5 6-8
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Indianapolis 103.1 102.5 103.5 103.0 25 8-6
Houston 102.3 102.4 102.9 102.5 24 10-4
Tennessee 98.7 98.8 98.6 98.7 19.5 8-6
Jacksonville 96.7 96.2 96.1 96.3 18.5 4-10
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 107.3 107.5 107.1 107.3 30 11-3
LA Chargers 105.0 105.8 105.7 105.5 24 11-3
Denver 99.8 99.7 99.7 99.7 19.5 6-8
Oakland 91.1 91.2 91.0 91.1 21.5 3-11
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 102.5 102.7 102.6 102.6 22.5 7-7
Dallas 100.6 100.4 100.0 100.3 19.5 8-6
N.Y. Giants 97.0 97.0 97.2 97.1 22.5 5-9
Washington 94.4 93.8 94.3 94.2 22 7-7
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Chicago 105.0 105.2 105.9 105.4 23 10-4
Minnesota 102.5 102.5 102.3 102.4 21 7-6-1
Green Bay 99.8 100.2 99.7 99.9 24 5-8-1
Detroit 98.8 98.6 98.2 98.5 23.5 5-9
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 112.5 112.5 112.6 112.5 26.5 12-2
Carolina 100.7 100.3 100.6 100.5 24 6-8
Atlanta 99.6 99.4 99.2 99.4 26 5-9
Tampa Bay 95.9 96.1 96.8 96.3 25 5-9
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 105.7 105.9 105.5 105.7 28.5 11-3
Seattle 104.1 104.2 104.7 104.3 22.5 8-6
San Francisco 95.4 95.4 95.2 95.3 22 4-10
Arizona 92.7 92.1 92.0 92.3 18.5 3-11

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

These projections are not to be confused with how the seedings would be if the playoffs started today.  They forecast the final two weeks of games.

AFC Seeding
1 L.A. Chargers
2 New England
3 Houston
4 Pittsburgh
5 Kansas City
6 Tennessee

 

NFC Seeding
1 New Orleans
2 L.A. Rams
3 Chicago
4 Dallas
5 Seattle
6 Minnesota

 

Playoff Projections

Wildcard Round
Houston over Tennessee
Pittsburgh over Kansas City
Chicago over Minnesota
Seattle over Dallas

 

Divisional Round
L.A. Chargers over Houston
New England over Pittsburgh
New Orleans over Seattle
Chicago over L.A. Rams

 

Conference Championships
L.A. Chargers over New England
New Orleans over Chicago

 

Super Bowl LIII
L.A. Chargers over New Orleans

 

What Would Happen If…

There is a chance that both the Los Angeles Rams and the Los Angeles Chargers could host their conference championship games.  There has always been a chance that the New York Jets and New York Giants could one year host their conference championship games.  In the future, once they occupy the same new colossus mega stadium, the Rams and Chargers could host their conference championship games in the same year.

Conference Championship Games are always on Sundays.  What that means, is there is maybe a 5% chance that the Rams and Chargers could end up hosting on this day.  While it would be okay having both networks in the City of Angels on the same day for separate games, once these teams share a home field (and if the world ever comes to an end and the Jets and Giants host conference championship games), it will not be possible to have doubleheaders on the same field on the same day.

Can you imagine the logistical nightmare it would cause to have the AFC Championship Game at 10 AM Pacific Time, followed by the NFC Championship at 1:30 PM Pacific Time on the same field?  First of all, it would be impossible.  Everybody in the stands would have to be escorted out of the stadium, before ticket holders for the second game could enter.  There would be about 15 to 20 minutes max for this to happen.  Like I said, this is impossible.

Next, the field itself would have to be transformed with new logos, as well as having any field damage repaired.  In the case of a game in East Rutherford, NJ, what if the weather conditions were 35 degrees with rain?  After 60 minutes of action, the next game would inherit very sloppy field conditions.  I did say impossible.

Now, what if the first game ended regulation with the game tied, and this game became a repeat of the 1971 Miami-Kansas City game at the old Municipal Stadium up on the hill in Kansas City.   What if the first game didn’t end until 2:30 PM Pacific Time?  The second game network would have to fill over an hour of time waiting for a game to end, when 99.9% of the football watching public would be tuned to the other game.  Once again, it is impossible.

I haven’t even mentioned that the teams in the second game need time to warm up on the field.  15 to 20 minutes is not enough.  They need at least an hour.  If you have to make a decision a week before to change the start times of the games, the network brass at CBS and Fox get very upset.  They cannot just make impromptu changes to their schedule a week in advance.  Only very important breaking news makes it okay to alter a TV schedule one week in advance.  The networks would say “impossible.”

However impossible it is, there is a chance that it could happen.  So what would happen if it did?  Yes, there is a contingency plan in place to cover this possibility.  If the same stadium is to host both conference championship games, one will be moved to Monday Night.  Yep, there could be a conference championship on Monday Night Football, but it would not be the regular MNF crew or network.  If it was the AFC game, it would be on CBS, and if it was the NFC game, it would be on Fox.

You might ask, has a network other than ABC or ESPN ever televised a Monday Night game?  The answer is “yes.”

It is a misnomer to believe that Monday Night Football on ABC in 1970 was the first time that NFL games were played and televised on Monday night.  Before there was MNF featuring Howard Cosell, CBS televised a handful of NFL games on Monday night during the 1960’s.  The games started at 9:30 PM Eastern Time, but because games concluded in 2 1/2 hours in those days, they were finished at Midnight.  One of the best games in this group was a 1968 game between an unbeaten Dallas team and a Green Bay Packer team coached by Phil Bengston, who was not having a rough time replacing Vince Lombardi, as the Packers were 2-3-1, but still in the race in the weak NFL Central Division.

Dallas led 10-0, and Green Bay looked more like an expansion team in the opening quarter plus.   Then, the great Bart Starr took the aging Packers on his shoulder and guided them back like it was 1966 again.  Starr threw three touchdown passes in the next quarter plus, and Green Bay took a 21-10 lead.  Starr threw another TD pass in the fourth quarter, and the Packers once again owned the Cowboys with a 28-17 win.

The American Football League also played a couple of Monday Night games in the 1960s, televised on NBC.  One notable game involved Broadway Joe Namath and the New York Jets playing host to the Houston Oilers in a game that would put the winner in first place in the AFL East at the midway point of the season.  Namath was victimized with a pick six by Zeke Moore early in the game, and he was somewhat of a disappointment that night with additional interceptions, but he also completed multiple long bomb passes to speedster Don Maynard, and the Jets pulled out the victory thanks to Jim Turner kicking four field goals, a couple from near midfield (goalposts were on the goalline then and not on the end line like today).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

December 12, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for December 15-21 Bowls and NFL Week 15

The Return of the Land Sharps

After taking a week off to regroup, our five Land Sharps are ready to return to their hopefully winning ways after ending the season on a sour note.  As bowl season begins, Cal Gal Tiffany has opened a commanding lead in return on investment, maintaining a healthy double digit percentage profit that has been rather consistent for the last several weeks.  Tiffany admits that she knows more about numbers than football strategy, so maybe we can learn something from her.  She likes underdogs, and she likes numbers that are a half-point higher than typical game outcomes.  In other words, she has played a lot of 3 1/2, 7 1/2, 10 1/2, 14 1/2, and 17 1/2 point underdogs this year.  Tiffy believes the books know what they are doing in setting the lines, and there is no way she can outsmart them by trying to figure out which team is better or worse than the line.  She goes simply by the numbers, and it has helped her take a large lead in our little contest.

Stewed Meat is in second place, but Stewed has been playing the B-team of selections this year, because Stewed plays other picks for real and does well enough to make it a full-time profession in Nevada.

Buckeye Michelle is very unhappy.  She believes Ohio State is the only team that can beat Alabama, and her Buckeyes will not get that chance.  She also is unhappy, because she was in first place at the start of November and now has a record just above .500 with no profit.  Michelle and Tiffany are friendly rivals who have known each other for 10 years, and Tiffy has given Michie the business in recent weeks.  Now to make you more unhappy–these two ladies are what you would call “smokin’ hot” and unfortunately,  for all but two of the male gender, are taken.  The funny thing is their guys are not really into football, as they follow the Cleveland Indians and Oakland Athletics and nothing else.  It’s the two ladies that occupy their woman caves to watch their games.

Dean615 was in the lead for a few weeks, but Dean says that a heavy November schedule made it hard to find time to study.  Dean says that he has had ample time to study the bowls.  Dean is the ex-football player who played in three bowl games and knows what it is like and believes he knows which teams are there to play and which just want to collect their bling packages and start their off seasons.

Friday Dog 13 is the renegade of our Land Sharps.  He has played a lot more favorites than underdogs, and it worked until No Fave November.  The Autumn winds raided his bank account, and sent him into the red at the wrong time of the year.  Friday Dog has had extracurricular issues this Autumn and also has not had a ton of time to devote to the lines as of late, but he should be able to study the bowls with more time.  You will see his theme in his first set of picks.  He is a fan of Mid-America.

And what about the PiRates themselves?  We have been contrarians to the Land Sharps.  When the Land Sharps began the season hot and profitable, the PiRates were sinking like rocks.  Then, after we noticed that our NFL teaser picks kept winning consistently, we began to add more teaser selections, and the last 5 weeks have been somewhat profitable.  Hopefully, this isn’t the kiss of death talking about it and including more of these selections.

Let’s start with the Land Sharps and their picks for the first week of bowl games.  All five made three selections.  Four of the five took the same team, and three of the five took another team, so take this for what you believe it is worth.  Also, a majority of the picks were on the underdogs.

#1) Cal Gal Tiffany

Season: 40-30-0 57.1%

Return on Investment: 10.0%

Georgia Southern -1 1/2 vs. Eastern Michigan

Western Michigan +12 1/2 vs. BYU

Tulane -3 1/2 vs. Louisiana

 

#2) Stewed Meat

Season: 38-32-3  54.3%

Return on Investment: 3.8%

North Texas +8 vs. Utah St.

Middle Tennessee +7 1/2 vs. Appalachian St.

Western Michigan +12 1/2 vs. BYU

 

#3) Buckeye Michelle

Season: 33-30-1  52.4%

Return on Investment: 0.0%

San Diego St. +3 vs. Ohio U

Tulane -3 1/2 vs. Louisiana

Western Michigan +12 1/2 vs. BYU

 

#4) Dean615

Season: 31-29-2  51.7%

Return on Investment: -1.5%

South Florida +2 1/2 vs. Marshall

Tulane -3 1/2 vs. Louisiana

Western Michigan +12 1/2 vs. BYU

 

#5) Friday Dog 13

Season: 36-35-1  50.7%

Return on Investment: -3.5%

Northern Illinois +2 1/2 vs. UAB

Toledo -5 1/2 vs. Florida International

Ohio U -2 1/2 vs. San Diego St.

 

The PiRate Rating Picks

For the bowl season, we have been experimenting with playing the underdogs with money line selections.  It is our hypothesis that if one plays the same amount on every bowl game by taking the underdog and the best money line odds you can get, that it could be very profitable.  Since we play with imaginary currency in an imaginary bank account, it does not hurt to play $100 on every bowl game by taking the underdog and finding the best odds.  If we lose every game, we are out $0, and if it wins, and returns a profit, then maybe the public will have knowledge for the future.  Therefore, you will see us picking the underdog to win every bowl game (not playoffs) this year and shopping for the best odds.

Here are the selections for the first week of games.

Favorite Underdog Moneyline Pick
Tulane Louisiana +155 Louisiana
Utah St. North Texas +275 North Texas
Fresno St. Arizona St. +167 Arizona St.
Georgia Southern Eastern Michigan +120 Eastern Michigan
Appalachian St. Middle Tennessee +235 Middle Tennessee
UAB Northern Illinois +125 Northern Illinois
Ohio U San Diego St. +135 San Diego St.
Marshall South Florida +125 South Florida
Toledo Florida Int’l. +195 Florida Int’l.
BYU Western Michigan +400 Western Michigan

NFL Teaser Picks to date:  26-12  68.4%

NFL 
10-point Teasers
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Chicago Green Bay 17 Green Bay
Minnesota Miami 17.5 Miami
Baltimore Tampa Bay 19.5 Tampa Bay
 

 

Team Team Total Pick
Kansas City L.A. Chargers 43 Over
Chicago Green Bay 35 Over
Minnesota Miami 34.5 Over

 

NFL 
13-point Teasers
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Detroit Buffalo 15.5 Buffalo
Tampa Bay Baltimore 5 Baltimore
Atlanta Arizona 23 Arizona
Cincinnati Oakland 16 Oakland
 

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
San Francisco Seattle 8.5 Seattle
New England Pittsburgh 14.5 Pittsburgh
Philadelphia L.A. Rams 4 L.A. Rams
Tennessee N.Y. Giants 15.5 N.Y. Giants
 

 

Team Team Total Pick
Houston N.Y. Jets 28 Over
Cleveland Denver 32.5 Over
Buffalo Detroit 25 Over
Baltimore Tampa Bay 60 Under
 

 

Team Team Total Pick
Oakland Cincinnati 33 Over
N.Y. Giants Tennessee 30.5 Over
Washington Jacksonville 49 Under
Indianapolis Dallas 34 Over
 

 

Team Team Total Pick
Seattle San Francisco 57.5 Under
L.A. Rams Philadelphia 40.5 Over
Arizona Atlanta 31 Over
New Orleans Carolina 65 Under

Remember that all of our selections on this site are strictly for entertainment purposes only.  We do not wager actual currency or coinage on these games.  We are purely a group of math statistics lovers that also love and played sports.  Please do not wager real money based only on what we publish here.

 

 

 

December 6, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for December 6-10, 2018

The Land Sharps are taking a week off this week, since they play only college games, and there is just one game.  They will return for the bowls and playoffs.

In the meantime, the PiRate Ratings will go it alone and select our teaser choices for you to look at but not touch.  In other words, please do not wager real currency on what we issue here, as this is for entertainment purposes only.  While, our NFL picks have been on fire now for about a month, this does not mean they won’t stink it up so bad that they need to be sprayed with poopouri.

COLLEGE
13-Point Teaser 4-Game Parlays @12-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Army Navy 20 Navy
Navy Army 6 Army
Army Navy 27 OVER
Army Navy 53 UNDER

 

N F L

10-Point Teasers 3-Game Parlays @11-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Tennessee Jacksonville 15.5 Jacksonville
Baltimore Kansas City 3.5 Kansas City
Indianapolis Houston 5 Houston
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Green Bay Atlanta 15 Atlanta
New England Miami 17.5 Miami
Cleveland Carolina 9 Carolina
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Oakland Pittsburgh Pk Pittsburgh
Chicago L.A. Rams 7 L.A. Rams
Minnesota Seattle 7 Seattle
Team Team Total Pick
Kansas City Baltimore 41 OVER
Houston Indianapolis 59.5 UNDER
N.Y. Giants Washington 31 OVER
Team Team Total Pick
New Orleans Tampa Bay 45.5 OVER
Carolina Cleveland 37 OVER
Arizona Detroit 30.5 OVER
13-Point Teaser 4 Game parlay @12-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Washington N.Y. Giants 9.5 N.Y. Giants
San Francisco Denver 9.5 Denver
L.A. Chargers Cincinnati 1 L.A. Chargers
Detroit Arizona 16 Arizona

 

 

 

December 4, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 14: December 6-10, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Tennessee Jacksonville 0.6 0.9 0.3 39
Kansas City Baltimore 8.0 8.0 8.1 51
Houston Indianapolis 5.0 6.3 5.7 49.5
Cleveland Carolina -2.1 -1.4 -1.4 49
Green Bay Atlanta 2.6 3.3 2.6 49.5
Tampa Bay New Orleans -13.5 -13.5 -13.1 53.5
Buffalo N.Y. Jets 0.2 0.7 0.6 41
Miami New England -8.2 -9.2 -9.0 44.5
Chicago L.A. Rams -0.6 -1.3 0.0 52.5
Washington N.Y. Giants 1.8 0.9 1.4 44
San Francisco Denver -6.1 -6.1 -6.4 43
L.A. Chargers Cincinnati 13.3 13.9 14.2 47.5
Arizona Detroit -1.3 -1.5 -1.0 43
Dallas Philadelphia 4.1 4.3 4.4 41
Oakland Pittsburgh -12.8 -12.7 -12.6 46
Seattle Minnesota 4.8 4.9 5.8 44

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings 

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 105.9 106.4 106.4 106.2 22.5 9-3
Miami 94.7 94.3 94.4 94.4 22 6-6
N. Y. Jets 94.6 94.1 94.1 94.3 23.5 3-9
Buffalo 92.9 92.8 92.7 92.8 17.5 4-8
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 106.5 106.5 106.2 106.4 24.5 7-4-1
Baltimore 102.9 103.2 102.9 103.0 21 7-5
Cleveland 96.6 96.9 97.3 96.9 24.5 4-7-1
Cincinnati 94.3 94.4 93.9 94.2 23.5 5-7
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Houston 102.8 103.1 103.6 103.1 24 9-3
Indianapolis 100.3 99.3 100.3 100.0 25.5 6-6
Jacksonville 98.8 98.5 98.6 98.6 19 4-8
Tennessee 96.9 96.8 96.4 96.7 20 6-6
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 107.9 108.2 108.0 108.0 30 10-2
LA Chargers 104.5 105.3 105.1 105.0 24 9-3
Denver 101.8 101.7 101.7 101.7 20.5 6-6
Oakland 90.7 90.8 90.6 90.7 21.5 2-10
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Dallas 101.9 102.0 101.7 101.9 19 7-5
Philadelphia 100.7 100.7 100.4 100.6 22 6-6
N.Y. Giants 96.3 96.5 96.6 96.5 22 4-8
Washington 96.2 95.4 96.0 95.9 22 6-6
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Chicago 104.2 104.2 105.0 104.5 23.5 8-4
Minnesota 102.4 102.4 102.1 102.3 21 6-5-1
Green Bay 99.1 99.5 98.7 99.1 24 4-7-1
Detroit 98.4 98.2 97.8 98.1 24.5 4-8
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 112.5 112.6 112.8 112.6 27.5 10-2
Carolina 101.3 100.8 101.1 101.1 24.5 6-6
Atlanta 99.5 99.2 99.1 99.2 25.5 4-8
Tampa Bay 96.0 96.1 96.7 96.3 26 5-7
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 107.9 108.4 108.1 108.1 29 11-1
Seattle 104.2 104.3 104.9 104.5 23 7-5
Arizona 94.6 94.2 94.3 94.4 18.5 3-9
San Francisco 93.2 93.1 92.8 93.0 22.5 2-10

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Kansas City
2 New England
3 Houston
4 Pittsburgh
5 L.A. Chargers
6 Baltimore
NFC Seeding
1 L.A. Rams
2 New Orleans
3 Chicago
4 Philadelphia
5 Seattle
6 Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round
Houston over Baltimore
L.A. Chargers over Pittsburgh
Chicago over Minnesota
Philadelphia over Seattle

 

Divisional Round
L.A. Chargers over Kansas City
New England over Houston
New Orleans over Chicago
L.A. Rams over Philadelphia

 

Conference Championship
L.A. Chargers over New England
L.A. Rams over New Orleans

 

Super Bowl 53
L.A. Rams over L.A. Chargers

 

 

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