The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 21, 2020

PiRate Ratings For NFL Week 16: December 25-28, 2020

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:29 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
New OrleansMinnesota7.87.98.1
DetroitTampa Bay-10.7-11.1-11.7
Las VegasMiami-0.9-1.8-1.8
N.Y. JetsCleveland-11.5-11.1-12.5
ArizonaSan Francisco4.85.25.1
LA ChargersDenver0.20.30.3
Kansas CityAtlanta9.610.810.3
PittsburghIndianapolis-2.3-2.1-2.2
WashingtonCarolina0.51.10.4
JacksonvilleChicago-9.9-9.8-10.2
BaltimoreN.Y. Giants15.514.715.1
HoustonCincinnati8.77.98.1
SeattleLA Rams2.02.21.9
DallasPhiladelphia-1.6-1.4-1.4
Green BayTennessee3.63.53.7
New EnglandBuffalo-6.0-7.2-7.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
New OrleansMinnesota51.5
DetroitTampa Bay59
Las VegasMiami55
N.Y. JetsCleveland43.5
ArizonaSan Francisco55
LA ChargersDenver42.5
Kansas CityAtlanta53.5
PittsburghIndianapolis43.5
WashingtonCarolina48
JacksonvilleChicago41
BaltimoreN.Y. Giants45.5
HoustonCincinnati45.5
SeattleLA Rams52.5
DallasPhiladelphia50
Green BayTennessee53.5
New EnglandBuffalo41

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

December 22, 2020
A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo106.6107.4107.4107.22211-3
Miami101.4102.4101.9101.925.59-5
New England99.799.298.999.3196-8
N. Y. Jets88.388.987.988.4181-13

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore107.9107.8108.0107.9259-5
Pittsburgh101.2101.4101.3101.318.511-3
Cleveland100.7101.0101.4101.125.510-4
Cincinnati90.891.291.191.019.53-10-1

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Indianapolis105.0105.0105.0105.02510-4
Tennessee103.6103.8104.1103.82910-4
Houston98.097.697.797.8264-10
Jacksonville89.889.589.589.621.51-13

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City109.9110.2110.1110.127.513-1
Las Vegas99.199.098.698.929.57-7
Denver97.197.097.197.1205-9
LA Chargers96.296.496.496.322.55-9

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Washington98.298.398.298.2216-8
Philadelphia97.897.797.397.623.54-9-1
Dallas94.794.894.494.626.55-9
N.Y. Giants93.994.694.494.320.55-9

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay105.7105.8106.3105.924.511-3
Chicago100.8100.3100.7100.619.57-7
Minnesota98.497.997.998.025.56-8
Detroit94.193.793.693.8285-9

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay105.8105.7106.2105.9319-5
New Orleans104.7104.3104.5104.52610-4
Atlanta102.3101.4101.8101.8264-10
Carolina98.798.298.798.6274-10

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Seattle103.5103.9103.8103.828.510-4
LA Rams103.6103.7103.9103.7249-5
Arizona103.0102.7102.8102.8298-6
San Francisco99.699.199.199.3265-9

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1Kansas City
2Buffalo
3Cleveland
4Indianapolis
5Pittsburgh
6Tennessee
7Baltimore

NFC Seeding
1New Orleans
2Seattle
3Green Bay
4Washington
5Tampa Bay
6LA Rams
7Chicago

Wildcard Round
Buffalo over Baltimore
Cleveland over Tennessee
Indianapolis over Pittsburgh
Seattle over Chicago
Green Bay over LA Rams
Tampa Bay over Washington

Divisional Round
Kansas City over Indianapolis
Cleveland over Buffalo
Tampa Bay over New Orleans
Green Bay over Seattle

Conference Championship
Kansas City over Cleveland
Green Bay over Tampa Bay

Super Bowl
Kansas City over Green Bay

October 15, 2020

PiRate Picks for October 15-19, 2020

That Virus Changes Everything–Injuries Not So Much!

We had a nice variety of games ready to feature here this week, but then that little tiny virus cancelled two of the games we were ready to play and greatly altered a third, making it unplayable. You can obviously determine the three college games we refer to in the above sentence.

A crucial injury in the NFL might have made you think we would avoid a certain team like the plague, yet we are not only making a selection involving said team, we are making a selection in that team’s favor.

You will also notice that we are playing opposite sides of the same college game this week, going with the underdog against a spread that our ratings indicate is too high, while picking the favorite to win in a money line parlay. It is not a mistake; this was a deliberate choice to hopefully hit an unorthodox middle.

Before you get all gung ho about these selections, remember that we do this only for mathematical (nerdy) fun. We never actually wager real money on these selections, and we highly advise you to refrain from using these selections as advice. This statement is repeated every week, but like people that still text while driving, a group of you will immediately place wagers on these selections to try to receive the same parlay odds.

Before revealing today’s selections, let’s do a little review of last week’s selections and how we are performing year to date with our imaginary bank roll that never runs out of fresh imaginary $100 bills.

Last week, we issued 12 selections and won half of them. It was a profitable week, because we were 3-0 on money line parlays with payouts of +295, +141, and +166.60. At $100 imaginary per wager, we invested $1,200 in nonexistent currency and received $1,470.01 for a proftiable return on investment of 22.5%.

For the year, we are now up 7.94% in the profit column. But, this by no means indicates that we are going to stay in the black for the remainder of the season.

Additionally, the way our selections won last week was 180° different from the way we won in prior weeks. It was straight wagering that was unusually accurate heading into last week’s selections, while the exotic wagers were in the toilet.

Last week, the straight wagers lost a little, while the exotics won big. So, we cannot guess which style of wagers will do better in any one week. Thus, if you choose to pick just one or two of our selections, you are really taking a double gamble with your investment.

Just as this edition was about to publish, word has come out on the Twitterverse that the Atlanta Falcons have just reported a rash of new positives, and their facilities have been closed. We have a selection involving the Falcons, so by the time you see this, the Vegas lines may have changed.

And, we offer our condolences to the family of former NFL player Fred Dean, who passed away as a result of the virus. Let’s hope the biggest loser is the virus, as it is beaten like Georgia Tech over Cumberland.

Here are our selections for this week. Stay well!

Date:10/15-10/19
College Wagers
SelectionOpponentLine
1. HoustonBYU+5.5
2. KentuckyTennessee+6
3. Florida Intl.CharlotteCancelled


4. Money Line +143.55
Must WinOpponentOdds
SMUTulane
TennesseeKentucky+143.55
Notre DameLouisville


5. Money Line +152.83
Must WinOpponentOdds
Texas A&MMiss. St.
Middle Tenn.North Texas+152.83
N. CarolinaFlorida St.


NFL Wagers
SelectionOpponentLine
6. DenverNew England+10
7. DallasArizona+2


8. 10-point Teaser Parlay
TeamTeamOdds
N.Y. GiantsWashingtonO32.5
PhiladelphiaBaltimoreO37.5
MiamiN.Y. JetsO37


9. Money Line Parlay +142.97
Must WinOpponentOdds
MinnesotaAtlanta
PittsburghCleveland+142.97


10. Money Line Parlay +110.23
Must WinOpponentOdds
BaltimorePhiladelphia
IndianapolisCincinnati+110.23
MiamiN.Y. Jets

October 5, 2020

PiRate Ratings–NFL Football For Week 5: October 8-11, 2020

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:36 pm

This Week’s NFL Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBiasTotal
ChicagoTampa Bay-2.5-3.1-2.849.5
AtlantaCarolina2.11.41.754
TennesseeBuffalo-1.2-2.0-1.041.5
Kansas CityLas Vegas13.914.414.948.5
New EnglandDenver6.06.16.036.5
N.Y. JetsArizona-6.2-4.4-7.148.5
PittsburghPhiladelphia6.37.16.941
WashingtonLA Rams-5.1-5.1-6.147
BaltimoreCincinnati16.415.816.749.5
HoustonJacksonville7.26.66.746
San FranciscoMiami13.011.113.251.5
ClevelandIndianapolis-2.5-2.6-2.245.5
DallasN.Y. Giants8.98.69.149.5
SeattleMinnesota7.18.07.554
New OrleansLA Chargers10.39.79.549

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

10/6/2020
A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo102.4103.3102.7102.8184-0
New England101.4101.2101.4101.3202-2
Miami95.896.995.596.126.51-3
N. Y. Jets90.891.989.690.8200-4
NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore109.3109.2109.8109.425.53-1
Pittsburgh102.2102.8102.3102.4183-0
Cleveland99.499.499.999.624.53-1
Cincinnati94.995.495.195.1241-2-1
SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Indianapolis103.4103.5103.6103.5213-1
Tennessee99.799.8100.299.923.53-0
Houston99.098.298.498.5250-4
Jacksonville93.393.193.293.2211-3
WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City109.9110.5110.5110.3244-0
Las Vegas98.098.197.697.924.52-2
Denver97.997.697.997.816.51-3
LA Chargers97.497.598.097.620.51-3
N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas99.799.899.599.7271-3
Philadelphia97.497.296.997.1231-2-1
Washington94.594.594.194.421.51-3
N.Y. Giants92.893.292.492.822.50-4
NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay105.7105.7106.2105.9244-0
Chicago100.399.7100.3100.117.53-1
Minnesota99.999.699.999.8251-3
Detroit95.195.295.095.126.51-3
SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
New Orleans105.7105.2105.5105.528.52-2
Tampa Bay104.3104.2104.5104.4323-1
Atlanta99.197.998.698.527.50-4
Carolina98.597.998.498.326.52-2
WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
San Francisco106.3105.5106.2106.0252-2
Seattle104.9105.6105.3105.3294-0
LA Rams102.1102.1102.7102.325.53-1
Arizona99.098.398.898.728.52-2

September 22, 2020

PiRate Ratings–NFL for Week 3

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:50 am

PiRate Rating Spreads For Week 3

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBiasTotal
JacksonvilleMiami3.82.44.646.5
AtlantaChicago1.71.01.643
BuffaloLA Rams1.92.90.741.5
ClevelandWashington3.93.64.244
MinnesotaTennessee1.30.90.845.5
New EnglandLas Vegas4.33.64.342.5
N.Y. GiantsSan Francisco-8.5-7.4-8.949.5
PhiladelphiaCincinnati4.74.14.245.5
PittsburghHouston4.25.64.341.5
IndianapolisN.Y. Jets9.98.510.440.5
LA ChargersCarolina5.46.26.747
DenverTampa Bay-1.1-1.0-1.248
ArizonaDetroit10.49.710.954.5
SeattleDallas6.36.46.152.5
New OrleansGreen Bay4.33.83.949
BaltimoreKansas City7.16.47.650

PiRate Ratings For Week 3

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo101.3102.3101.2101.6162-0
New England100.8100.4100.8100.719.51-1
Miami93.795.093.394.0260-2
N. Y. Jets93.494.692.693.5190-2
NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore111.5111.4112.2111.725.52-0
Pittsburgh102.0102.6101.9102.2182-0
Cleveland97.297.097.397.2231-1
Cincinnati94.394.694.194.3230-2
SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Indianapolis101.3101.1101.1101.121.51-1
Tennessee99.9100.0100.3100.122.52-0
Houston100.399.5100.1100.023.50-2
Jacksonville96.095.996.496.120.51-1
WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City106.9107.5107.1107.224.52-0
Las Vegas99.599.899.599.6232-0
Denver98.998.898.998.916.50-2
LA Chargers98.398.599.298.7201-1
N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas100.8101.1101.0101.024.51-1
Philadelphia96.996.796.396.622.50-2
Washington95.395.495.195.3211-1
N.Y. Giants94.594.994.194.524.50-2
NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay104.2104.2104.5104.3232-0
Chicago100.299.7100.2100.0162-0
Minnesota99.298.999.199.0230-2
Detroit93.994.093.693.8260-2
SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
New Orleans106.5106.0106.4106.3261-1
Tampa Bay102.5102.3102.5102.531.51-1
Atlanta99.998.799.799.4270-2
Carolina96.095.295.495.6270-2
WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
San Francisco106.0105.3106.0105.8251-1
Seattle104.6105.0104.6104.8282-0
LA Rams102.5102.4103.5102.825.52-0
Arizona101.8101.2102.0101.728.52-0

December 31, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For December 31-January 5, 2019

Happy New Year to all our readers

 

This should be the year where we all see clearly.  2020 isn’t 2010 or 2005 when we could all be quite far-sighted, but after this year, we all become nearsighted.  We will be blind in another 70 years!

If that looks like nonsense to you, then you should consider that what follows makes the above look like rocket science.

Once again, we are issuing picks against the spread as entertainment purposes only.  These are not our more scientific Davey19 picks that enjoyed an experimental winning season.  So, please do not wager real money based on what you see below.

Because games are now down to a minimum, we do not have any great teaser or money line parlays through Sunday’s playoff games.  We are going with straight margin selections.  Enjoy, but in order to enjoy, you should keep your wallet in your pockets.

 

 

College Bowl Games

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Virginia Tech

Kentucky

2.5

Va. Tech

Arizona St.

Florida St.

4

Florida St.

Wyoming

Georgia St.

7.5

Georgia St.

Utah

Texas

7.5

Texas

Wisconsin

Oregon

3

Oregon

Tennessee

Indiana

2

Tennessee

 

NFL Wildcard Playoffs

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Houston

Buffalo

3

Buffalo

New England

Tennessee

4.5

New England

Seattle

Philadelphia

2.5

Philadelphia

December 16, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 16: December 21-23, 2019

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:33 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Tampa Bay

Houston

2.2

3.4

4.1

New England

Buffalo

9.2

8.9

8.4

San Francisco

LA Rams

5.9

7.7

7.7

Atlanta

Jacksonville

11.8

11.9

11.9

Tennessee

New Orleans

-4.0

-1.9

-2.4

Washington

N. Y. Giants

0.7

1.2

0.5

N. Y. Jets

Pittsburgh

-2.7

-2.7

-4.2

Miami

Cincinnati

-1.2

-0.8

-1.2

Indianapolis

Carolina

5.7

6.7

5.9

Cleveland

Baltimore

-10.8

-10.6

-11.5

LA Chargers

Oakland

12.7

12.7

12.1

Denver

Detroit

6.7

8.5

8.2

Seattle

Arizona

12.1

11.6

11.3

Philadelphia

Dallas

-0.6

-2.2

-2.3

Chicago

Kansas City

0.1

-2.9

-2.8

Minnesota

Green Bay

9.6

8.5

8.4

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

Home

Visitor

Total

Tampa Bay

Houston

54

New England

Buffalo

36.5

San Francisco

LA Rams

51.5

Atlanta

Jacksonville

44

Tennessee

New Orleans

46.5

Washington

N. Y. Giants

43

N. Y. Jets

Pittsburgh

41

Miami

Cincinnati

50

Indianapolis

Carolina

49

Cleveland

Baltimore

49

LA Chargers

Oakland

47.5

Denver

Detroit

42.5

Seattle

Arizona

49

Philadelphia

Dallas

47.5

Chicago

Kansas City

47.5

Minnesota

Green Bay

46.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New England

108.1

108.8

108.3

108.4

19.5

11-3

Buffalo

101.9

102.9

102.9

102.6

17

10-4

N. Y. Jets

94.2

94.8

93.8

94.3

21.5

5-9

Miami

89.2

89.4

89.2

89.3

27.5

3-11

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Baltimore

111.6

111.7

112.5

112.0

25

12-2

Pittsburgh

99.4

100.0

100.5

99.9

19.5

8-6

Cleveland

97.9

98.1

98.0

98.0

24

6-8

Cincinnati

92.9

92.7

92.9

92.8

22.5

1-13

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Tennessee

102.0

102.4

102.4

102.3

20.5

8-6

Houston

102.0

102.3

102.1

102.2

24

9-5

Indianapolis

97.9

98.7

98.1

98.2

23

6-8

Jacksonville

91.3

91.4

91.3

91.3

18

5-9

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Kansas City

105.2

106.0

105.9

105.7

30

10-4

LA Chargers

102.0

101.7

101.1

101.6

22

5-9

Denver

98.9

99.2

98.9

99.0

19

5-9

Oakland

91.2

91.0

91.0

91.1

25.5

6-8

 

 

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Dallas

104.8

105.1

104.8

104.9

23

7-7

Philadelphia

101.3

99.9

99.6

100.2

24.5

7-7

N.Y. Giants

93.4

93.6

93.9

93.6

24.5

3-11

Washington

91.6

92.3

91.9

91.9

18.5

3-11

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Minnesota

108.6

107.5

107.7

108.0

22

10-4

Green Bay

102.0

102.0

102.3

102.1

24.5

11-3

Chicago

102.9

100.6

100.6

101.4

17.5

7-7

Detroit

95.1

93.7

93.7

94.2

23.5

3-10-1

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New Orleans

108.5

106.8

107.3

107.5

26

11-3

Tampa Bay

101.3

102.7

103.2

102.4

30

7-7

Atlanta

100.6

100.8

100.7

100.7

26

5-9

Carolina

95.2

95.0

95.2

95.1

26

5-9

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

San Francisco

107.3

108.1

108.4

107.9

25.5

11-3

LA Rams

104.4

103.4

103.7

103.8

26

8-6

Seattle

103.2

103.0

103.2

103.1

24

11-3

Arizona

94.1

94.3

94.9

94.4

25

4-9-1

 

Playoff Projections

 

AFC Seeding

1

Baltimore

2

New England

3

Kansas City

4

Houston

5

Buffalo

6

Pittsburgh

NFC Seeding

1

New Orleans

2

Seattle

3

Green Bay

4

Philadelphia

5

San Francisco

6

Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round

Kansas City over Pittsburgh

Buffalo over Houston

Green Bay over Minnesota

San Francisco over Philadelphia

 

 

Divisional Round

Baltimore over Buffalo

New England over Kansas City

New Orleans over San Francisco

Seattle over Green Bay

 

 

Conference Championship

Baltimore over New England

Seattle over New Orleans

 

 

Super Bowl 54

Seattle over Baltimore

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 25, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 13: November 28-December 2, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Margins

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Detroit

Chicago

-2.8

-1.2

-0.9

Dallas

Buffalo

8.4

7.9

8.0

Atlanta

New Orleans

-7.4

-5.1

-5.8

Cincinnati

N.Y. Jets

-2.5

-3.5

-2.4

Indianapolis

Tennessee

4.8

5.2

5.1

Miami

Philadelphia

-14.2

-12.4

-12.3

N.Y. Giants

Green Bay

-5.2

-5.0

-5.0

Pittsburgh

Cleveland

2.6

2.5

2.8

Carolina

Washington

10.9

10.1

11.0

Jacksonville

Tampa Bay

0.7

-0.9

-1.2

Baltimore

San Francisco

6.3

5.4

6.1

Arizona

LA Rams

-5.5

-3.7

-3.3

Denver

LA Chargers

-0.1

0.3

0.6

Kansas City

Oakland

8.1

8.6

7.8

Houston

New England

-4.1

-4.7

-4.6

Seattle

Minnesota

-0.1

1.3

1.2

 

Totals

Home

Visitor

Total

Detroit

Chicago

41.5

Dallas

Buffalo

38.5

Atlanta

New Orleans

50.5

Cincinnati

N.Y. Jets

44.5

Indianapolis

Tennessee

41

Miami

Philadelphia

50

N.Y. Giants

Green Bay

50.5

Pittsburgh

Cleveland

44

Carolina

Washington

43.5

Jacksonville

Tampa Bay

48.5

Baltimore

San Francisco

49.5

Arizona

LA Rams

49.5

Denver

LA Chargers

39

Kansas City

Oakland

55.5

Houston

New England

43.5

Seattle

Minnesota

48

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New England

109.4

110.2

109.8

109.8

20.5

10-1

Buffalo

100.0

101.1

100.8

100.6

17.5

8-3

N. Y. Jets

96.5

97.4

96.5

96.8

21.5

4-7

Miami

87.4

87.6

87.3

87.4

26.5

2-9

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Baltimore

111.3

111.3

112.4

111.7

25

9-2

Cleveland

99.7

100.1

100.2

100.0

23.5

5-6

Pittsburgh

99.3

99.7

100.0

99.6

20.5

6-5

Cincinnati

91.6

91.3

91.6

91.5

23

0-11

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Houston

102.3

102.5

102.2

102.4

23

7-4

Indianapolis

101.0

101.9

101.5

101.5

22

6-5

Tennessee

99.2

99.6

99.4

99.4

19

6-5

Jacksonville

95.5

95.7

95.6

95.6

19

4-7

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Kansas City

100.7

101.2

100.8

100.9

31

7-4

LA Chargers

101.1

100.9

100.3

100.7

21

4-7

Denver

98.0

98.2

97.9

98.0

18

3-8

Oakland

95.6

95.6

96.0

95.7

24.5

6-5

 

 

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Dallas

105.4

106.0

105.8

105.7

21

6-5

Philadelphia

104.1

102.5

102.2

102.9

23.5

5-6

N.Y. Giants

93.1

93.3

93.6

93.3

25.5

2-9

Washington

89.7

90.4

89.9

90.0

18

2-9

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Minnesota

106.9

105.5

105.8

106.1

23

8-3

Chicago

102.9

100.0

99.9

100.9

17

5-6

Green Bay

100.8

100.9

101.1

100.9

25

8-3

Detroit

97.5

96.3

96.5

96.8

24.5

3-7-1

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New Orleans

107.4

105.3

105.6

106.1

25

9-2

Tampa Bay

97.3

99.0

99.3

98.5

29.5

4-7

Carolina

98.0

98.0

98.4

98.1

25.5

5-6

Atlanta

97.5

97.7

97.3

97.5

25.5

3-8

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

San Francisco

108.5

109.4

109.8

109.2

24.5

10-1

Seattle

103.8

103.8

104.0

103.9

25

9-2

LA Rams

103.5

102.1

102.4

102.7

25.5

6-5

Arizona

95.0

95.4

96.1

95.5

24

3-7-1

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding

1

Baltimore

2

New England

3

Houston

4

Kansas City

5

Buffalo

6

Pittsburgh

 

 

NFC Seeding

1

San Francisco

2

New Orleans

3

Green Bay

4

Dallas

5

Seattle

6

Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round

Houston over Pittsburgh

Buffalo over Kansas City

Minnesota over Green Bay

Seattle over Dallas

 

 

Divisional Round

Baltimore over Buffalo

Houston over New England

San Francisco over Minnesota

Seattle over New Orleans

 

 

Conference Championship

Baltimore over Houston

San Francisco over Seattle

 

 

Super Bowl 54

Baltimore over San Francisco

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 4, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 10: November 7-11, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

 

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Oakland

LA Chargers

-1.2

-1.1

0.0

Tennessee

Kansas City

-0.2

-0.3

-0.2

Cleveland

Buffalo

3.7

3.0

3.4

Tampa Bay

Arizona

5.1

7.1

7.0

N.Y. Jets

N.Y. Giants

-2.1

-1.8

-3.5

New Orleans

Atlanta

17.4

14.6

15.9

Cincinnati

Baltimore

-7.5

-7.5

-8.2

Green Bay

Carolina

5.4

5.2

4.8

Chicago

Detroit

6.6

4.7

4.1

Indianapolis

Miami

15.6

16.0

16.0

Pittsburgh

LA Rams

-5.9

-4.0

-4.0

Dallas

Minnesota

0.4

2.7

2.1

San Francisco

Seattle

7.4

8.7

9.2

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

 

Home

Visitor

Total

Oakland

LA Chargers

46.5

Tennessee

Kansas City

47

Cleveland

Buffalo

41

Tampa Bay

Arizona

53

N.Y. Jets

N.Y. Giants

46

New Orleans

Atlanta

51

Cincinnati

Baltimore

47.5

Green Bay

Carolina

51

Chicago

Detroit

43.5

Indianapolis

Miami

48.5

Pittsburgh

LA Rams

49

Dallas

Minnesota

43

San Francisco

Seattle

50

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New England

109.2

110.2

109.8

109.7

21.5

8-1

Buffalo

98.4

99.4

98.9

98.9

17.5

6-2

N. Y. Jets

91.2

92.0

90.6

91.3

20.5

1-7

Miami

87.6

87.9

87.6

87.7

26

1-7

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Baltimore

103.8

103.6

104.6

104.0

24

6-2

Cleveland

99.6

99.8

99.8

99.7

23.5

2-6

Pittsburgh

98.6

99.1

99.4

99.0

22

4-4

Cincinnati

93.9

93.6

93.9

93.8

23.5

0-8

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Houston

104.5

104.8

104.6

104.7

23

6-3

Indianapolis

100.1

101.0

100.6

100.6

22.5

5-3

Jacksonville

97.9

98.3

98.5

98.2

18.5

4-5

Tennessee

97.5

97.8

97.4

97.6

16.5

4-5

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

LA Chargers

101.6

101.5

101.0

101.3

21.5

4-5

Kansas City

100.2

100.6

100.1

100.3

30.5

6-3

Denver

99.1

99.3

99.1

99.2

18

3-6

Oakland

97.3

97.4

98.0

97.6

25

4-4

 

 

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Dallas

105.2

105.9

105.5

105.5

21

5-3

Philadelphia

105.3

103.6

103.4

104.1

25

5-4

N.Y. Giants

93.4

93.7

94.1

93.7

25.5

2-7

Washington

91.0

91.8

91.3

91.4

17.5

1-8

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Minnesota

106.8

105.2

105.4

105.8

22

6-3

Green Bay

103.2

103.2

103.4

103.3

25.5

7-2

Chicago

103.6

100.5

100.5

101.5

18.5

3-5

Detroit

98.9

97.8

98.4

98.4

25

3-4-1

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New Orleans

109.4

106.8

107.3

107.8

24.5

7-1

Carolina

100.7

101.0

101.6

101.1

25.5

5-3

Tampa Bay

96.5

98.7

99.2

98.1

29.5

2-6

Atlanta

95.0

95.2

94.4

94.8

26.5

1-7

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

San Francisco

106.5

107.6

108.1

107.4

24

8-0

LA Rams

107.5

106.1

106.4

106.7

27

5-3

Seattle

102.1

101.9

101.9

102.0

26

7-2

Arizona

94.4

94.6

95.2

94.7

23.5

3-5-1

 

NFL Playoff Projections

 

AFC Seeding

1

New England

2

Baltimore

3

Houston

4

Kansas City

5

Buffalo

6

Pittsburgh

 

NFC Seeding

1

San Francisco

2

New Orleans

3

Green Bay

4

Philadelphia

5

Seattle

6

LA Rams

 

Wildcard Round

Houston over Pittsburgh

Kansas City over Buffalo

Green Bay over LA Rams

Seattle over Philadelphia

 

 

Divisional Round

New England over Kansas City

Baltimore over Houston

San Francisco over Seattle

New Orleans over Green Bay

 

 

Conference Championship

New England over Baltimore

New Orleans over San Francisco

 

 

Super Bowl 54

New Orleans over New England

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

October 14, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 7: October 17-21, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Denver

Kansas City

-0.8

-0.9

-0.4

N.Y. Giants

Arizona

4.0

4.2

4.3

Indianapolis

Houston

-2.3

-1.7

-2.1

Buffalo

Miami

16.6

18.0

18.1

Detroit

Minnesota

-4.1

-3.1

-2.4

Green Bay

Oakland

9.7

9.5

9.2

Cincinnati

Jacksonville

-1.2

-1.8

-1.4

Atlanta

LA Rams

-5.8

-3.6

-3.7

Washington

San Francisco

-10.2

-10.5

-11.5

Tennessee

LA Chargers

1.4

1.5

2.2

Seattle

Baltimore

5.5

5.8

5.0

Chicago

New Orleans

2.3

2.0

2.1

Dallas

Philadelphia

-0.1

2.7

2.3

N.Y. Jets

New England

-13.0

-13.0

-13.7

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New England

109.3

110.4

109.9

109.9

21.5

6-0

Buffalo

99.8

101.2

100.8

100.6

18

4-1

N. Y. Jets

93.8

94.9

93.7

94.1

21.5

1-4

Miami

86.2

86.2

85.7

86.0

26

0-5

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Baltimore

100.7

100.2

101.1

100.7

23

4-2

Cleveland

99.5

99.8

99.9

99.7

23.5

2-4

Pittsburgh

98.5

99.0

99.3

98.9

21.5

2-4

Cincinnati

94.4

94.2

94.8

94.5

24

0-6

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Houston

104.5

104.8

104.6

104.7

23

4-2

Indianapolis

99.2

100.1

99.5

99.6

22

3-2

Jacksonville

98.1

98.5

98.7

98.4

19

2-4

Tennessee

97.9

98.2

97.9

98.0

15

2-4

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Kansas City

104.2

104.6

103.9

104.2

31

4-2

Denver

100.5

100.7

100.5

100.6

19.5

2-4

LA Chargers

99.5

99.7

98.7

99.3

21.5

2-4

Oakland

97.1

97.2

97.8

97.4

23.5

3-2

 

 

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Philadelphia

105.3

103.2

102.9

103.8

25.5

3-3

Dallas

102.2

102.9

102.2

102.4

20.5

3-3

N.Y. Giants

94.7

95.2

95.8

95.2

24.5

2-4

Washington

91.1

92.1

91.5

91.6

19

1-5

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Minnesota

106.6

104.7

105.0

105.5

21.5

4-2

Green Bay

103.8

103.7

104.0

103.8

25

5-1

Chicago

105.9

102.5

102.9

103.8

19

3-2

Detroit

100.0

99.1

100.1

99.8

23

2-2-1

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New Orleans

106.6

103.5

103.8

104.6

23.5

5-1

Carolina

102.0

102.2

103.0

102.4

24.5

4-2

Tampa Bay

95.6

97.9

98.3

97.3

28.5

2-4

Atlanta

96.5

97.0

96.4

96.6

27.5

1-5

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

San Francisco

104.3

105.6

106.0

105.3

23.5

5-0

LA Rams

105.3

103.6

103.7

104.2

28

3-3

Seattle

103.2

103.0

103.1

103.1

25.5

5-1

Arizona

93.7

94.0

94.5

94.1

23.5

2-3-1

 

Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding

1

New England

2

Houston

3

Kansas City

4

Baltimore

5

Buffalo

6

Indianapolis

 

 

NFC Seeding

1

San Francisco

2

New Orleans

3

Green Bay

4

Philadelphia

5

Seattle

6

Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round

Kansas City over Indianapolis

Buffalo over Baltimore

Green Bay over Minnesota

Seattle over Philadelphia

 

 

Divisional Round

New England over Buffalo

Houston over Kansas City

San Francisco over Seattle

New Orleans over Green Bay

 

 

Conference Championship

New England over Houston

San Francisco over New Orleans

 

 

Super Bowl 54

San Francisco over New England

 

 

 

October 3, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For October 3-7, 2019

Yet another week went by with mixed results here on the PiRate ship.  Our original picks began the weekend on a high note, as we hit on outright Money Line upsets by Duke and by Baylor.  Indiana even looked promising for awhile, before Michigan State proved too much for the Hoosiers.  Then, what we gained on Saturday, we gave back on Sunday.

The Davey19 experimental system had another successful week, bringing the total for the year back into the black.  When we use this formula, many times we look at the plays and feel apprehensive about publishing them, but they have proven to be winners so far this year.

Today, our concentration is more on the number and less on the teams involved.  Certainly, the teams involve matter, as getting 7 1/2 points for a winless team wouldn’t be worth a hoot against a top 5 team.  But, when it comes to games that are not considered blowout games, we are going to go heavy on the ones that cross multiple frequent numbers most prevalent in football outcomes.

By the way, do you know which numbers we speak of?  There are separate sets of numbers for college and for NFL games.  Let’s look at college first.

About 35% of all FBS football games end with the winner beating the loser by 3, 4, 7, 10, 14, 17, or 21 points.  Those 7 margins make up better than 1/3 of all game outcomes.  When we refer to crossing numbers, this means we can play a teaser of 6, 6 1/2, 7, 10, or 13 points and cross multiple frequent margins.

For example, let’s say that Team A is listed as a 2 1/2 point underdog to Team B.  If we were to play Team A in a 10-point teaser as part of a 3-game parlay, we’d be allowed to move that spread from 2 1/2 to 12 1/2.  Doing so crosses 3, 4, 7, and 10, four of the most frequent margins in football games.  Crossing four numbers is quite nice.  

If Team B is a favorite over Team A by 2 1/2 and you play Team A in a 6-point, 2-game teaser, you can make Team A go from a 2 1/2 point to an 8 1/2 point underdog, crossing 3, 4, and 7.  In this instance crossing three frequent margins is wonderful when only having to win two games on a parlay.

When it comes to NFL games, the frequency of margins has changed quite a bit since 2015, when the extra point attempt was moved back to the 18 yard line and more teams began going for two-point conversions.

Today’s NFL sees a lot of games decided by 5 or 6 points.  Prior to 2015, more games ended by 10 and 4 points than today.  The advantage is now more in the smart bettor’s favor than it used to be.  42% of all NFL games end with a margin of 3, 4, 5. 6, or 7 points.  So, being able to cross these five margins in a teaser is an incredible opportunity if you can find a tossup game and tease it past that magical number 7.  Or, if you think you have a team that is a sure outright winner and is favored by more than 7 points, if you can tease that number to 2 1/2 or less, you are gaining a large advantage.  Professional gambling author John Ferguson, known by the nom deplum of Stanford Wong made the Teaser play that moves through 3 and 7 point margins quite famous, and today, this is called a Wong Teaser.  Wong’s favorite teaser play was a 6-point tease of favorites of 7 1/2, 8, or 8 1/2 points down to 1 1/2, 2, or 2 1/2 points, and a 6-point tease of underdogs of 1 1/2, 2, or 2 1/2 points to 7 1/2, 8, or 8 1/2 points.

When Ferguson made big money betting these types of teasers, the books offered much fairer odds on them, until more people picked up on this and began to win too much.  Now, you can get -110 odds on 2-game, 6-point teasers.  You have to put up $11 for every $10 the books put up.  We are not in the business of advertising for any company, so we won’t tell you the name, but if you do your research, you can still find a place where a 2-game, 6-point teaser has +100 odds, which means they put up dollar for dollar what you put up.

We have heard from a few of you that anxiously await these picks to come out every Thursday morning in the Central US.  Hopefully, you heed our advice and never wager real money on our published suggestions (And if you do, maybe it is to convince you not to play the games we picked!).

Even though our Davey19 experimental program is showing a profit for the year, the number of weeks it has been tried is still too small to mean much.  Our regular system had a multi-year run of success, but this year, it stinks.  So, just because Davey19 has a multi-week run of success, it could just as easily stink this week.  

Let’s get on with it.  Here are our selections for the week.  Once again–we never wager real money on these picks.  We are math geeks, and numbers are our friends.  We will make a statement that some people have taught their children how to love math by using applications like this and others using money to teach them how important math is.

 

PiRate Ratings Picks

 

10-point Teasers

 

#1

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Duke

Pittsburgh

15

Pittsburgh

Toledo

Western Michigan

12

Western Michigan

Ole Miss

Vanderbilt

17 1/2

Vanderbilt

Our feeling on this one is that Pittsburgh is vastly underrated with close losses to Penn State and Virginia.  Their listless win over Delaware can be excused as a sandwich game between the big upset of Central Florida and the conference game with Duke.

We believe that Western Michigan has about a 55-60% chance of winning this game outright, so making Toledo a double-digit favorite entices us to take the Broncos in this one.

An admission: we typically never play either way on a game involving Vanderbilt.  Our captain has inside connections with the program, and he feels that it wouldn’t be right to issue picks either way on the Commodores.  However, this week, this game becomes a prime pick, and the Captain has no inside information here.  This is purely a comparison of personnel, as well as production so far.  The Captain says that Vanderbilt’s opening troika of games with Northern Illinois in Game 4 basically made it a certainty that they would open 1-3 and become devalued.  Ole Miss’s defense is going to suffer a letdown against the Vanderbilt offense.  The Rebels have reached that point where the players pretty much know that the season is going to head south in October and November.  Meanwhile, Vanderbilt has a gimme game next week with UNLV and will not be looking forward past the next play in this game.  Ole Miss must play at Missouri, against Texas A&M, and at Auburn the next three weeks.  With LSU and Mississippi State coming at the end of the year, the chances of making it to bowl eligibility are about 1-2%.  Vanderbilt must win this game so that the UNLV game next week really matters.  A win Saturday virtually guarantees getting back to .500 the next week and with three definitely winnable games left on the schedule.  The SEC needs one of the bottom five teams to step up and gain bowl eligibility, and unless Missouri wins their challenge to ineligibility before December, the Commodores have the most favorable path to 6-6.

 

#2

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Florida

Auburn

7 1/2

Auburn

Miami (Fla.)

Virginia Tech

4

Miami

Oklahoma St.

Texas Tech

Pk

Oklahoma St.

 

We have been looking at the Florida-Auburn game since last Saturday night.  Our statistics and schedule strength show Auburn to be a legitimate touchdown or more favorite in this game, so getting more than that magical 7 points is quite appealing.

Teasing Miami from two touchdowns to 4 points brings us through the numbers 14, 10, and 7, and until Virginia Tech looks like a team with players that care, we will always look at teasing in their opponents’ favor.

Oklahoma State should beat Texas Tech 8 out of 10 times, so we are hoping that getting the Cowboys as a Pick’em will work, and this won’t be one of those two other times.

 

#3

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Penn St.

Purdue

18

Penn St.

Iowa

Michigan

6 1/2

Michigan

Washington

Stanford

6 1/2

Washington

 

We are not the type of player that plays a 4-touchdown favorite over a conference opponent, but with Purdue’s injury issues, we almost went with Penn State in a straight play at -28 over the Boilermakers.  However, we went the safer route and teased this under 21 points.  James Franklin may call off the dogs and allow PU a backdoor cover, but 18 points feels safe.

The Iowa-Michigan game was one of those really tough calls.  We hoped Iowa would pick up a little more Sharp support being undefeated, while Michigan has not won any big games under Jim Harbaugh.  Alas,  not enough Sharp money came in on Iowa, and the margin didn’t move to the 2 1/2 points we wanted.  We still like this number giving Michigan 6 1/2 points to play with, which does move the margin through two crucial numbers.  The fact that our ratings show that Michigan has about a 60% chance of winning the game, we’ll take the 6 1/2 points like it is bonus points for the true spread.

We get to move through 14, 10, and 7 in the Washington-Stanford game, and in our analysis, we believe the Huskies can blow the Cardinal off the field.  As a matter of fact, the Davey19 formula could be used to take UW outright at -16 1/2, but it was so close that we did not include it in this week’s Davey19 picks.

 

#4

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Tulane

Army

13

Army

Kansas St.

Baylor

12

Baylor

Nebraska

Northwestern

17 1/2

Northwestern

 

Tulane has become the sexy new Group of 5 favorite among the media, especially the ladies and gentlemen at ESPN and Fox Sports.  Army has yet to fire on all cylinders this year, but we don’t see the Green Wave going to West Point and winning by two touchdowns.

The Kansas State-Baylor game is strictly a numbers’ play.  Moving 2 to 12 goes through 3, 4, 7, and 10.  We don’t particularly love Baylor’s chances of winning after the emotional home upset of Iowa State, but 12 points from 2 are too much to turn down.

The same thing applies to Nebraska and Northwestern.  Neither team looks strong enough to blow out the other.  17 1/2 moves the spread through 10, 14, and 17, and in addition, we think the Cornhuskers should be favored by about 4 points.  So, this becomes more like a 13-point tease at a 10-point price.

 

#5

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Ohio

Buffalo

13

Buffalo

Iowa St.

TCU

13

TCU

Western Kentucky

Old Dominion

13 1/2

Old Dominion

 

These three plays are 100% about the numbers and not the teams after you factor in that these games are fairly evenly matched.  Ohio has been a disappointment so far, but their schedule has been a bit more than the Bobcats could handle to this point.  Additionally, this is a major revenge game for Buffalo, and it is a must-win game if the Bulls are to remain alive in the MAC-East.  Moving the line through 4, 7, and 10 is just gravy.

Iowa State and TCU might split 10 games, so getting the Horned Frogs and 13 is another great numbers’ play.

Western Kentucky has moved up from near the bottom to near the top in the CUSA East Division race, and the big upset over UAB last week means the Hilltoppers are now a contender in the division race.  However, teams that pull off big home upsets in conference games that go on the road the next week as a road favorite in a conference game have poor records covering the spread.  WKU may win this game, but not by two touchdowns.  

 

#6

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

UTSA

UTEP

11 1/2

UTEP

North Carolina

Georgia Tech

1/2

North Carolina

Rice

UAB

1

UAB

 

UTSA and UTEP could combine their rosters and still struggle to finish 3-9, so when one of these weak teams can be forced into a double-digit situation that crosses all the lower key numbers (3, 4, 7, and 10), we jump on this one.

Teasing the Tar Heels is the only way to go in this game.  North Carolina will bounce some after falling short against Clemson, but Georgia Tech is likely to go 0-8 in ACC play this year trying to move from the triple option philosophy to the standard style of play.  That’s usually a three-year transition process.  We’ll put enough faith in Mack Brown to get his Carolina team ready enough to win this game, even if just by a couple points.

The Rice-UAB spread should probably be larger than it is, and we were enticed to look twice at playing UAB straight up.  Teasing the Blazers into an underdog is too good to pass up in this one.

 

13-point Teaser

#7

Team

Team

Total

Pick

Arizona

Cincinnati

34

Over

Minnesota

N.Y. Giants

30 1/2

Over

Tennessee

Buffalo

25 1/2

Over

San Francisco

Cleveland

33 1/2

Over

 

We had to choose one 13-point teaser and go with NFL Totals.  It can be hard to find action in a 13-point teaser of totals, but it is possible, so we are going with one.

The reasoning behind this play is that NFL games have smaller standard deviations of point totals in games.  The books have to be careful with totals that are too low in an environment where offenses have the advantage over defenses.  Thus, moving them by 13 points back in the direction where they probably need to be makes these games enticing.  Other than that, we don’t have a lot else to go on in these plays.  We chose these four games because our own internal ratings show that all four games should be played in the 38-45 point total range.

Davey19

Davey19 is a mechanical system using multiple rules that would take much too long to explain.  And, if it proves to be successful, we aren’t about to explain it to the rest of the world.

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Kansas St.

Baylor

1

Kansas St.

Eastern Michigan

Central Michigan

5 1/2

Eastern Michigan

SMU

Tulsa

13 1/2

Tulsa

Auburn

Florida

2 1/2

Auburn

LSU

Utah St.

28

Utah St.

Carolina

Jacksonville

3 1/2

Jacksonville

Kansas City

Indianapolis

11 1/2

Indianapolis

New England

Washington

15 1/2

Washington

Philadelphia

N. Y. Jets

14 1/2

N.Y. Jets

 

 

 

 

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