PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 10: November 7-11, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

 

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Oakland	LA Chargers	-1.2	-1.1	0.0
Tennessee	Kansas City	-0.2	-0.3	-0.2
Cleveland	Buffalo	3.7	3.0	3.4
Tampa Bay	Arizona	5.1	7.1	7.0
N.Y. Jets	N.Y. Giants	-2.1	-1.8	-3.5
New Orleans	Atlanta	17.4	14.6	15.9
Cincinnati	Baltimore	-7.5	-7.5	-8.2
Green Bay	Carolina	5.4	5.2	4.8
Chicago	Detroit	6.6	4.7	4.1
Indianapolis	Miami	15.6	16.0	16.0
Pittsburgh	LA Rams	-5.9	-4.0	-4.0
Dallas	Minnesota	0.4	2.7	2.1
San Francisco	Seattle	7.4	8.7	9.2

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

 

Home	Visitor	Total
Oakland	LA Chargers	46.5
Tennessee	Kansas City	47
Cleveland	Buffalo	41
Tampa Bay	Arizona	53
N.Y. Jets	N.Y. Giants	46
New Orleans	Atlanta	51
Cincinnati	Baltimore	47.5
Green Bay	Carolina	51
Chicago	Detroit	43.5
Indianapolis	Miami	48.5
Pittsburgh	LA Rams	49
Dallas	Minnesota	43
San Francisco	Seattle	50

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	109.2	110.2	109.8	109.7	21.5	8-1
Buffalo	98.4	99.4	98.9	98.9	17.5	6-2
N. Y. Jets	91.2	92.0	90.6	91.3	20.5	1-7
Miami	87.6	87.9	87.6	87.7	26	1-7
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	103.8	103.6	104.6	104.0	24	6-2
Cleveland	99.6	99.8	99.8	99.7	23.5	2-6
Pittsburgh	98.6	99.1	99.4	99.0	22	4-4
Cincinnati	93.9	93.6	93.9	93.8	23.5	0-8
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Houston	104.5	104.8	104.6	104.7	23	6-3
Indianapolis	100.1	101.0	100.6	100.6	22.5	5-3
Jacksonville	97.9	98.3	98.5	98.2	18.5	4-5
Tennessee	97.5	97.8	97.4	97.6	16.5	4-5
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Chargers	101.6	101.5	101.0	101.3	21.5	4-5
Kansas City	100.2	100.6	100.1	100.3	30.5	6-3
Denver	99.1	99.3	99.1	99.2	18	3-6
Oakland	97.3	97.4	98.0	97.6	25	4-4
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	105.2	105.9	105.5	105.5	21	5-3
Philadelphia	105.3	103.6	103.4	104.1	25	5-4
N.Y. Giants	93.4	93.7	94.1	93.7	25.5	2-7
Washington	91.0	91.8	91.3	91.4	17.5	1-8
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	106.8	105.2	105.4	105.8	22	6-3
Green Bay	103.2	103.2	103.4	103.3	25.5	7-2
Chicago	103.6	100.5	100.5	101.5	18.5	3-5
Detroit	98.9	97.8	98.4	98.4	25	3-4-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	109.4	106.8	107.3	107.8	24.5	7-1
Carolina	100.7	101.0	101.6	101.1	25.5	5-3
Tampa Bay	96.5	98.7	99.2	98.1	29.5	2-6
Atlanta	95.0	95.2	94.4	94.8	26.5	1-7
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
San Francisco	106.5	107.6	108.1	107.4	24	8-0
LA Rams	107.5	106.1	106.4	106.7	27	5-3
Seattle	102.1	101.9	101.9	102.0	26	7-2
Arizona	94.4	94.6	95.2	94.7	23.5	3-5-1

 

NFL Playoff Projections

 

AFC Seeding
1	New England
2	Baltimore
3	Houston
4	Kansas City
5	Buffalo
6	Pittsburgh

 

NFC Seeding
1	San Francisco
2	New Orleans
3	Green Bay
4	Philadelphia
5	Seattle
6	LA Rams

 

Wildcard Round

Houston over Pittsburgh

Kansas City over Buffalo

Green Bay over LA Rams

Seattle over Philadelphia

Divisional Round

New England over Kansas City

Baltimore over Houston

San Francisco over Seattle

New Orleans over Green Bay

Conference Championship

New England over Baltimore

New Orleans over San Francisco

Super Bowl 54

New Orleans over New England

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 7: October 17-21, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Denver	Kansas City	-0.8	-0.9	-0.4
N.Y. Giants	Arizona	4.0	4.2	4.3
Indianapolis	Houston	-2.3	-1.7	-2.1
Buffalo	Miami	16.6	18.0	18.1
Detroit	Minnesota	-4.1	-3.1	-2.4
Green Bay	Oakland	9.7	9.5	9.2
Cincinnati	Jacksonville	-1.2	-1.8	-1.4
Atlanta	LA Rams	-5.8	-3.6	-3.7
Washington	San Francisco	-10.2	-10.5	-11.5
Tennessee	LA Chargers	1.4	1.5	2.2
Seattle	Baltimore	5.5	5.8	5.0
Chicago	New Orleans	2.3	2.0	2.1
Dallas	Philadelphia	-0.1	2.7	2.3
N.Y. Jets	New England	-13.0	-13.0	-13.7

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	109.3	110.4	109.9	109.9	21.5	6-0
Buffalo	99.8	101.2	100.8	100.6	18	4-1
N. Y. Jets	93.8	94.9	93.7	94.1	21.5	1-4
Miami	86.2	86.2	85.7	86.0	26	0-5
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	100.7	100.2	101.1	100.7	23	4-2
Cleveland	99.5	99.8	99.9	99.7	23.5	2-4
Pittsburgh	98.5	99.0	99.3	98.9	21.5	2-4
Cincinnati	94.4	94.2	94.8	94.5	24	0-6
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Houston	104.5	104.8	104.6	104.7	23	4-2
Indianapolis	99.2	100.1	99.5	99.6	22	3-2
Jacksonville	98.1	98.5	98.7	98.4	19	2-4
Tennessee	97.9	98.2	97.9	98.0	15	2-4
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	104.2	104.6	103.9	104.2	31	4-2
Denver	100.5	100.7	100.5	100.6	19.5	2-4
LA Chargers	99.5	99.7	98.7	99.3	21.5	2-4
Oakland	97.1	97.2	97.8	97.4	23.5	3-2
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Philadelphia	105.3	103.2	102.9	103.8	25.5	3-3
Dallas	102.2	102.9	102.2	102.4	20.5	3-3
N.Y. Giants	94.7	95.2	95.8	95.2	24.5	2-4
Washington	91.1	92.1	91.5	91.6	19	1-5
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	106.6	104.7	105.0	105.5	21.5	4-2
Green Bay	103.8	103.7	104.0	103.8	25	5-1
Chicago	105.9	102.5	102.9	103.8	19	3-2
Detroit	100.0	99.1	100.1	99.8	23	2-2-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	106.6	103.5	103.8	104.6	23.5	5-1
Carolina	102.0	102.2	103.0	102.4	24.5	4-2
Tampa Bay	95.6	97.9	98.3	97.3	28.5	2-4
Atlanta	96.5	97.0	96.4	96.6	27.5	1-5
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
San Francisco	104.3	105.6	106.0	105.3	23.5	5-0
LA Rams	105.3	103.6	103.7	104.2	28	3-3
Seattle	103.2	103.0	103.1	103.1	25.5	5-1
Arizona	93.7	94.0	94.5	94.1	23.5	2-3-1

 

Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1	New England
2	Houston
3	Kansas City
4	Baltimore
5	Buffalo
6	Indianapolis
NFC Seeding
1	San Francisco
2	New Orleans
3	Green Bay
4	Philadelphia
5	Seattle
6	Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round

Kansas City over Indianapolis

Buffalo over Baltimore

Green Bay over Minnesota

Seattle over Philadelphia

Divisional Round

New England over Buffalo

Houston over Kansas City

San Francisco over Seattle

New Orleans over Green Bay

Conference Championship

New England over Houston

San Francisco over New Orleans

Super Bowl 54

San Francisco over New England

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Picks For October 3-7, 2019

Yet another week went by with mixed results here on the PiRate ship.  Our original picks began the weekend on a high note, as we hit on outright Money Line upsets by Duke and by Baylor.  Indiana even looked promising for awhile, before Michigan State proved too much for the Hoosiers.  Then, what we gained on Saturday, we gave back on Sunday.

The Davey19 experimental system had another successful week, bringing the total for the year back into the black.  When we use this formula, many times we look at the plays and feel apprehensive about publishing them, but they have proven to be winners so far this year.

Today, our concentration is more on the number and less on the teams involved.  Certainly, the teams involve matter, as getting 7 1/2 points for a winless team wouldn’t be worth a hoot against a top 5 team.  But, when it comes to games that are not considered blowout games, we are going to go heavy on the ones that cross multiple frequent numbers most prevalent in football outcomes.

By the way, do you know which numbers we speak of?  There are separate sets of numbers for college and for NFL games.  Let’s look at college first.

About 35% of all FBS football games end with the winner beating the loser by 3, 4, 7, 10, 14, 17, or 21 points.  Those 7 margins make up better than 1/3 of all game outcomes.  When we refer to crossing numbers, this means we can play a teaser of 6, 6 1/2, 7, 10, or 13 points and cross multiple frequent margins.

For example, let’s say that Team A is listed as a 2 1/2 point underdog to Team B.  If we were to play Team A in a 10-point teaser as part of a 3-game parlay, we’d be allowed to move that spread from 2 1/2 to 12 1/2.  Doing so crosses 3, 4, 7, and 10, four of the most frequent margins in football games.  Crossing four numbers is quite nice.  

If Team B is a favorite over Team A by 2 1/2 and you play Team A in a 6-point, 2-game teaser, you can make Team A go from a 2 1/2 point to an 8 1/2 point underdog, crossing 3, 4, and 7.  In this instance crossing three frequent margins is wonderful when only having to win two games on a parlay.

When it comes to NFL games, the frequency of margins has changed quite a bit since 2015, when the extra point attempt was moved back to the 18 yard line and more teams began going for two-point conversions.

Today’s NFL sees a lot of games decided by 5 or 6 points.  Prior to 2015, more games ended by 10 and 4 points than today.  The advantage is now more in the smart bettor’s favor than it used to be.  42% of all NFL games end with a margin of 3, 4, 5. 6, or 7 points.  So, being able to cross these five margins in a teaser is an incredible opportunity if you can find a tossup game and tease it past that magical number 7.  Or, if you think you have a team that is a sure outright winner and is favored by more than 7 points, if you can tease that number to 2 1/2 or less, you are gaining a large advantage.  Professional gambling author John Ferguson, known by the nom deplum of Stanford Wong made the Teaser play that moves through 3 and 7 point margins quite famous, and today, this is called a Wong Teaser.  Wong’s favorite teaser play was a 6-point tease of favorites of 7 1/2, 8, or 8 1/2 points down to 1 1/2, 2, or 2 1/2 points, and a 6-point tease of underdogs of 1 1/2, 2, or 2 1/2 points to 7 1/2, 8, or 8 1/2 points.

When Ferguson made big money betting these types of teasers, the books offered much fairer odds on them, until more people picked up on this and began to win too much.  Now, you can get -110 odds on 2-game, 6-point teasers.  You have to put up $11 for every $10 the books put up.  We are not in the business of advertising for any company, so we won’t tell you the name, but if you do your research, you can still find a place where a 2-game, 6-point teaser has +100 odds, which means they put up dollar for dollar what you put up.

We have heard from a few of you that anxiously await these picks to come out every Thursday morning in the Central US.  Hopefully, you heed our advice and never wager real money on our published suggestions (And if you do, maybe it is to convince you not to play the games we picked!).

Even though our Davey19 experimental program is showing a profit for the year, the number of weeks it has been tried is still too small to mean much.  Our regular system had a multi-year run of success, but this year, it stinks.  So, just because Davey19 has a multi-week run of success, it could just as easily stink this week.  

Let’s get on with it.  Here are our selections for the week.  Once again–we never wager real money on these picks.  We are math geeks, and numbers are our friends.  We will make a statement that some people have taught their children how to love math by using applications like this and others using money to teach them how important math is.

 

PiRate Ratings Picks

 

10-point Teasers

 

#1

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Duke	Pittsburgh	15	Pittsburgh
Toledo	Western Michigan	12	Western Michigan
Ole Miss	Vanderbilt	17 1/2	Vanderbilt

Our feeling on this one is that Pittsburgh is vastly underrated with close losses to Penn State and Virginia.  Their listless win over Delaware can be excused as a sandwich game between the big upset of Central Florida and the conference game with Duke.

We believe that Western Michigan has about a 55-60% chance of winning this game outright, so making Toledo a double-digit favorite entices us to take the Broncos in this one.

An admission: we typically never play either way on a game involving Vanderbilt.  Our captain has inside connections with the program, and he feels that it wouldn’t be right to issue picks either way on the Commodores.  However, this week, this game becomes a prime pick, and the Captain has no inside information here.  This is purely a comparison of personnel, as well as production so far.  The Captain says that Vanderbilt’s opening troika of games with Northern Illinois in Game 4 basically made it a certainty that they would open 1-3 and become devalued.  Ole Miss’s defense is going to suffer a letdown against the Vanderbilt offense.  The Rebels have reached that point where the players pretty much know that the season is going to head south in October and November.  Meanwhile, Vanderbilt has a gimme game next week with UNLV and will not be looking forward past the next play in this game.  Ole Miss must play at Missouri, against Texas A&M, and at Auburn the next three weeks.  With LSU and Mississippi State coming at the end of the year, the chances of making it to bowl eligibility are about 1-2%.  Vanderbilt must win this game so that the UNLV game next week really matters.  A win Saturday virtually guarantees getting back to .500 the next week and with three definitely winnable games left on the schedule.  The SEC needs one of the bottom five teams to step up and gain bowl eligibility, and unless Missouri wins their challenge to ineligibility before December, the Commodores have the most favorable path to 6-6.

 

#2

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Florida	Auburn	7 1/2	Auburn
Miami (Fla.)	Virginia Tech	4	Miami
Oklahoma St.	Texas Tech	Pk	Oklahoma St.

 

We have been looking at the Florida-Auburn game since last Saturday night.  Our statistics and schedule strength show Auburn to be a legitimate touchdown or more favorite in this game, so getting more than that magical 7 points is quite appealing.

Teasing Miami from two touchdowns to 4 points brings us through the numbers 14, 10, and 7, and until Virginia Tech looks like a team with players that care, we will always look at teasing in their opponents’ favor.

Oklahoma State should beat Texas Tech 8 out of 10 times, so we are hoping that getting the Cowboys as a Pick’em will work, and this won’t be one of those two other times.

 

#3

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Penn St.	Purdue	18	Penn St.
Iowa	Michigan	6 1/2	Michigan
Washington	Stanford	6 1/2	Washington

 

We are not the type of player that plays a 4-touchdown favorite over a conference opponent, but with Purdue’s injury issues, we almost went with Penn State in a straight play at -28 over the Boilermakers.  However, we went the safer route and teased this under 21 points.  James Franklin may call off the dogs and allow PU a backdoor cover, but 18 points feels safe.

The Iowa-Michigan game was one of those really tough calls.  We hoped Iowa would pick up a little more Sharp support being undefeated, while Michigan has not won any big games under Jim Harbaugh.  Alas,  not enough Sharp money came in on Iowa, and the margin didn’t move to the 2 1/2 points we wanted.  We still like this number giving Michigan 6 1/2 points to play with, which does move the margin through two crucial numbers.  The fact that our ratings show that Michigan has about a 60% chance of winning the game, we’ll take the 6 1/2 points like it is bonus points for the true spread.

We get to move through 14, 10, and 7 in the Washington-Stanford game, and in our analysis, we believe the Huskies can blow the Cardinal off the field.  As a matter of fact, the Davey19 formula could be used to take UW outright at -16 1/2, but it was so close that we did not include it in this week’s Davey19 picks.

 

#4

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Tulane	Army	13	Army
Kansas St.	Baylor	12	Baylor
Nebraska	Northwestern	17 1/2	Northwestern

 

Tulane has become the sexy new Group of 5 favorite among the media, especially the ladies and gentlemen at ESPN and Fox Sports.  Army has yet to fire on all cylinders this year, but we don’t see the Green Wave going to West Point and winning by two touchdowns.

The Kansas State-Baylor game is strictly a numbers’ play.  Moving 2 to 12 goes through 3, 4, 7, and 10.  We don’t particularly love Baylor’s chances of winning after the emotional home upset of Iowa State, but 12 points from 2 are too much to turn down.

The same thing applies to Nebraska and Northwestern.  Neither team looks strong enough to blow out the other.  17 1/2 moves the spread through 10, 14, and 17, and in addition, we think the Cornhuskers should be favored by about 4 points.  So, this becomes more like a 13-point tease at a 10-point price.

 

#5

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Ohio	Buffalo	13	Buffalo
Iowa St.	TCU	13	TCU
Western Kentucky	Old Dominion	13 1/2	Old Dominion

 

These three plays are 100% about the numbers and not the teams after you factor in that these games are fairly evenly matched.  Ohio has been a disappointment so far, but their schedule has been a bit more than the Bobcats could handle to this point.  Additionally, this is a major revenge game for Buffalo, and it is a must-win game if the Bulls are to remain alive in the MAC-East.  Moving the line through 4, 7, and 10 is just gravy.

Iowa State and TCU might split 10 games, so getting the Horned Frogs and 13 is another great numbers’ play.

Western Kentucky has moved up from near the bottom to near the top in the CUSA East Division race, and the big upset over UAB last week means the Hilltoppers are now a contender in the division race.  However, teams that pull off big home upsets in conference games that go on the road the next week as a road favorite in a conference game have poor records covering the spread.  WKU may win this game, but not by two touchdowns.  

 

#6

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
UTSA	UTEP	11 1/2	UTEP
North Carolina	Georgia Tech	1/2	North Carolina
Rice	UAB	1	UAB

 

UTSA and UTEP could combine their rosters and still struggle to finish 3-9, so when one of these weak teams can be forced into a double-digit situation that crosses all the lower key numbers (3, 4, 7, and 10), we jump on this one.

Teasing the Tar Heels is the only way to go in this game.  North Carolina will bounce some after falling short against Clemson, but Georgia Tech is likely to go 0-8 in ACC play this year trying to move from the triple option philosophy to the standard style of play.  That’s usually a three-year transition process.  We’ll put enough faith in Mack Brown to get his Carolina team ready enough to win this game, even if just by a couple points.

The Rice-UAB spread should probably be larger than it is, and we were enticed to look twice at playing UAB straight up.  Teasing the Blazers into an underdog is too good to pass up in this one.

 

13-point Teaser

#7

Team	Team	Total	Pick
Arizona	Cincinnati	34	Over
Minnesota	N.Y. Giants	30 1/2	Over
Tennessee	Buffalo	25 1/2	Over
San Francisco	Cleveland	33 1/2	Over

 

We had to choose one 13-point teaser and go with NFL Totals.  It can be hard to find action in a 13-point teaser of totals, but it is possible, so we are going with one.

The reasoning behind this play is that NFL games have smaller standard deviations of point totals in games.  The books have to be careful with totals that are too low in an environment where offenses have the advantage over defenses.  Thus, moving them by 13 points back in the direction where they probably need to be makes these games enticing.  Other than that, we don’t have a lot else to go on in these plays.  We chose these four games because our own internal ratings show that all four games should be played in the 38-45 point total range.

Davey19

Davey19 is a mechanical system using multiple rules that would take much too long to explain.  And, if it proves to be successful, we aren’t about to explain it to the rest of the world.

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Kansas St.	Baylor	1	Kansas St.
Eastern Michigan	Central Michigan	5 1/2	Eastern Michigan
SMU	Tulsa	13 1/2	Tulsa
Auburn	Florida	2 1/2	Auburn
LSU	Utah St.	28	Utah St.
Carolina	Jacksonville	3 1/2	Jacksonville
Kansas City	Indianapolis	11 1/2	Indianapolis
New England	Washington	15 1/2	Washington
Philadelphia	N. Y. Jets	14 1/2	N.Y. Jets

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 5: October 3-7, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

 

Margins

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Seattle	LA Rams	-1.1	0.8	0.7
Pittsburgh	Baltimore	-1.0	-0.3	-0.9
Oakland (n)	Chicago	-10.6	-7.1	-6.8
Cincinnati	Arizona	5.3	4.7	4.9
Carolina	Jacksonville	6.5	5.7	6.2
N.Y. Giants	Minnesota	-5.1	-2.0	-1.0
Washington	New England	-12.7	-12.3	-11.9
Philadelphia	N.Y. Jets	12.2	8.7	9.9
New Orleans	Tampa Bay	14.2	7.7	7.4
Houston	Atlanta	7.5	6.7	6.8
Tennessee	Buffalo	5.5	4.6	5.1
LA Chargers	Denver	6.6	7.0	6.5
Dallas	Green Bay	5.2	6.0	5.5
Kansas City	Indianapolis	12.5	12.3	12.5
San Francisco	Cleveland	1.5	2.6	2.7

 

Totals

Home	Visitor	Total
Seattle	LA Rams	53
Pittsburgh	Baltimore	44.5
Oakland (n)	Chicago	42.5
Cincinnati	Arizona	46.5
Carolina	Jacksonville	42
N.Y. Giants	Minnesota	45.5
Washington	New England	41.5
Philadelphia	N.Y. Jets	47
New Orleans	Tampa Bay	52
Houston	Atlanta	46
Tennessee	Buffalo	36
LA Chargers	Denver	42.5
Dallas	Green Bay	44.5
Kansas City	Indianapolis	54.5
San Francisco	Cleveland	48

 

(n)–Oakland vs. Chicago game played in London

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	108.1	109.1	108.3	108.5	21.5	4-0
Buffalo	97.9	99.3	98.7	98.6	18.5	3-1
N. Y. Jets	94.7	96.0	94.6	95.1	22.5	0-3
Miami	85.8	85.6	85.0	85.5	26.5	0-4
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Cleveland	101.7	102.0	102.2	102.0	23.5	2-2
Baltimore	101.1	100.7	101.7	101.2	23	2-2
Pittsburgh	97.6	98.0	98.3	97.9	21.5	1-3
Cincinnati	95.4	95.1	95.7	95.4	24.5	0-4
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Houston	102.7	102.7	102.3	102.6	21.5	2-2
Tennessee	100.4	100.8	100.8	100.7	17.5	2-2
Jacksonville	98.1	98.8	99.0	98.6	19	2-2
Indianapolis	97.1	97.9	97.2	97.4	23	2-2
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	106.6	107.2	106.7	106.8	31.5	4-0
LA Chargers	102.5	102.9	102.0	102.4	22	2-2
Denver	98.4	98.4	98.0	98.3	20.5	0-4
Oakland	95.7	95.9	96.5	96.0	23.5	2-2
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	103.9	104.8	104.4	104.4	20	3-1
Philadelphia	105.0	102.7	102.5	103.4	24.5	2-2
N.Y. Giants	96.2	97.0	98.0	97.1	24.5	2-2
Washington	93.0	94.3	93.9	93.7	20	0-4
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Chicago	106.4	102.9	103.3	104.2	19	3-1
Minnesota	104.3	102.0	102.0	102.8	21	2-2
Green Bay	101.8	101.8	101.9	101.8	24.5	3-1
Detroit	99.7	98.6	99.7	99.4	23	2-1-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	106.9	103.3	103.5	104.6	24	3-1
Carolina	101.6	101.4	102.2	101.7	23	2-2
Atlanta	98.3	99.0	98.5	98.6	24.5	1-3
Tampa Bay	95.7	98.6	99.1	97.8	28	2-2
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	107.1	105.1	105.3	105.8	28.5	3-1
Seattle	103.0	102.9	103.0	103.0	24.5	3-1
San Francisco	100.2	101.7	101.9	101.3	24.5	3-0
Arizona	93.1	93.4	93.8	93.4	22	0-3-1

 

Playoff Projections

 

AFC Seeding
1	New England
2	Kansas City
3	Cleveland
4	Jacksonville
5	Buffalo
6	LA Chargers
NFC Seeding
1	Seattle
2	New Orleans
3	Chicago
4	Philadelphia
5	LA Rams
6	Green Bay

 

Wildcard Round

LA Chargers over Cleveland

Buffalo over Jacksonville

Chicago over Green Bay

LA Rams over Philadelphia

Divisional Round

New England over LA Chargers

Kansas City over Buffalo

LA Rams over Seattle

Chicago over New Orleans

Conference Championship

Kansas City over New England

Chicago over LA Rams

Super Bowl 53

Kansas City over Chicago

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 3: September 19-23, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Jacksonville	Tennessee	-0.8	-0.5	-0.5
Green Bay	Denver	4.4	4.5	4.9
Philadelphia	Detroit	9.4	7.9	6.5
Kansas City	Baltimore	7.0	8.6	6.9
Buffalo	Cincinnati	3.1	4.8	3.2
Indianapolis	Atlanta	0.4	0.4	0.3
Minnesota	Oakland	11.1	8.9	8.3
New England	N.Y. Jets	15.3	14.9	15.4
Dallas	Miami	19.1	20.1	20.0
Tampa Bay	N.Y. Giants	1.8	4.7	4.5
Arizona	Carolina	-1.1	-0.2	0.0
Seattle	New Orleans	-1.6	2.6	2.5
LA Chargers	Houston	3.1	3.5	3.1
San Francisco	Pittsburgh	7.1	8.7	8.7
Cleveland	LA Rams	-4.7	-1.8	-1.9
Washington	Chicago	-8.0	-1.6	-1.9

Totals

Home	Visitor	Total
Jacksonville	Tennessee	38
Green Bay	Denver	43.5
Philadelphia	Detroit	44
Kansas City	Baltimore	52.5
Buffalo	Cincinnati	46
Indianapolis	Atlanta	48.5
Minnesota	Oakland	44
New England	N.Y. Jets	44.5
Dallas	Miami	49.5
Tampa Bay	N.Y. Giants	51
Arizona	Carolina	45
Seattle	New Orleans	48
LA Chargers	Houston	44.5
San Francisco	Pittsburgh	46.5
Cleveland	LA Rams	50.5
Washington	Chicago	42

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	108.0	109.0	108.2	108.4	22	2-0
Buffalo	97.7	99.1	98.3	98.4	19.5	2-0
N. Y. Jets	95.2	96.6	95.3	95.7	22.5	0-2
Miami	86.7	86.7	86.3	86.6	28	0-2
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	102.2	101.6	102.8	102.2	22	2-0
Cleveland	100.9	101.4	101.5	101.3	23.5	1-1
Cincinnati	97.1	96.8	97.6	97.2	26.5	0-2
Pittsburgh	95.9	96.0	96.2	96.0	22	0-2
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Houston	102.4	102.4	101.9	102.3	22	1-1
Tennessee	100.1	100.4	100.5	100.3	19	1-1
Indianapolis	98.0	98.9	98.3	98.4	22.5	1-1
Jacksonville	96.8	97.4	97.5	97.2	19	0-2
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	106.7	107.7	107.2	107.2	30.5	2-0
LA Chargers	103.0	103.4	102.5	102.9	22.5	1-1
Denver	99.4	99.5	99.2	99.4	20	0-2
Oakland	95.6	95.7	96.3	95.9	22.5	1-1
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	103.3	104.3	103.8	103.8	21.5	2-0
Philadelphia	105.5	102.8	102.5	103.6	23	1-1
Washington	95.2	97.2	97.1	96.5	21.5	0-2
N.Y. Giants	94.2	94.7	95.4	94.8	24.5	0-2
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Chicago	105.7	101.3	101.5	102.8	20.5	1-1
Minnesota	104.2	102.1	102.1	102.8	21.5	1-1
Green Bay	101.3	101.5	101.6	101.5	23.5	2-0
Detroit	98.6	97.4	98.5	98.2	21	1-0-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	106.9	102.8	102.9	104.2	24	1-1
Atlanta	100.1	101.0	100.5	100.5	26	1-1
Carolina	99.5	99.1	99.7	99.4	23	0-2
Tampa Bay	93.5	96.9	97.4	95.9	26.5	1-1
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	108.6	106.2	106.4	107.1	27	2-0
Seattle	102.3	102.4	102.4	102.4	24	2-0
San Francisco	100.0	101.7	101.9	101.2	24.5	2-0
Arizona	95.4	95.9	96.7	96.0	22	0-1-1

 

Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1	New England
2	Kansas City
3	Baltimore
4	Indianapolis
5	Buffalo
6	Cleveland
NFC Seeding
1	LA Rams
2	Dallas
3	Green Bay
4	Atlanta
5	Philadelphia
6	Seattle

Wildcard Round

Baltimore over Cleveland

Buffalo over Indianapolis

Green Bay over Seattle

Philadelphia over Atlanta

Divisional Round

New England over Buffalo

Kansas City over Baltimore

LA Rams over Philadelphia

Green Bay over Dallas

Conference Championship

New England over Kansas City

LA Rams over Green Bay

Super Bowl 53

New England over LA Rams

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for The Divisional Playoff Round: January 12-13, 2019

NFL Divisional Playoff Round Ratings and Information

 

Saturday, January 12, 2019

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs

Time: 4:35 PM Eastern Standard

TV: NBC

Pirate Ratings Spreads

PiRate: Kansas City by 6.4 

Mean: Kansas City by 7.2

Bias: Kansas City by 5.7

Total: 55

Expected Score: Kansas City 31  Indianapolis 24

———————————————————————————-

Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams

Time: 8:15 PM Eastern Standard

TV: Fox 

Pirate Ratings Spreads

PiRate:  Los Angeles by 8.5

Mean: Los Angeles by 8.8

Bias: Los Angeles by 8.8

Total: 49.5

Expected Score: Los Angeles 30  Dallas 21

—————————————————————————-

Sunday, January 13, 2019

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots

Time: 1:05 PM Eastern Standard

TV: CBS

PiRate Ratings Spreads

PiRate: New England by 3.5

Mean: New England by 2.8

Bias: New England by 2.7

Total: 45.5

Expected Score: New England 24  Los Angeles 21

———————————————————————————-

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints

Time: 4:40 PM Eastern Standard

TV: Fox

PiRate Ratings Spreads

PiRate: New Orleans by 12.8 

Mean: New Orleans by 12.5

Bias: New Orleans by 12.4

Total: 49

Expected Score: New Orleans 31  Philadelphia 17

PiRate Ratings Selections for The College Football National Championship Game & The NFL Wildcard Playoff Round

Final Land Sharp Selections

The Land Sharps are limping home to the finish, as the Bowl season did not go so well for our five friends.  Let’s give them all some props for faring so well during the regular season.  It isn’t easy to stay above the magic 52.4% success rate that a sports investor needs to return a profit, and all five did so throughout the regular season.

Now, here’s something else you should know.  If you are a regular reader here, you may recall just after the bowls and playoffs were announced, that we told you about our experiment in playing the Money Line on every bowl game and by investing the identical amount on the underdog to win outright.  We tested this out last year with a healthy profit.

If last year was a healthy profit, this year was a giant windfall!  Friends, this method drained the imaginary money from the imaginary sports book like it was Jesse and Frank James robbing it.  The return on investment was over 61%, as 16 of the 38 underdogs won outright, returning an average of $289 per upset.  If you had the funds and could afford to put down $10,000 on the Underdog on the 39 games (which became 38 after the postponement of the former Heart of Dallas Bowl), these money line wagers would have returned just under a quarter million dollars.  WOW!

Now, to make it even better.  Had you only played the 36 bowl games and not the two playoff games, you would have gone 16-20 and your return on investment would have been 76.5%!  Where else can you get a 76.5% return on your investment in 17 days?

Here are the final Land Sharp Picks for the National Championship Game.  Our Land Sharps made these selections earlier in the week when the going odds were:

Alabama – 5.5

Clemson +7

Over 59.5

Under 60 

 

Three of the Land Sharps selected Clemson and took the points

Cal Gal Tiffany, Dean615, and Stewed Meat

Two of the Land Sharps selected Alabama and gave the points

Buckeye Michelle and Friday Dog 13

 

Four of the Land Sharps took the OVER

Cal Gal Tiffany, Dean615, Buckeye Michelle, and Friday Dog 13

One Land Sharp took the UNDER

Stewed Meat

 

As for the PiRates, we issued our ratings earlier this week, and they showed that Alabama is favored by 1 to 2 points, so if you go by our ratings, the play would be Clemson but without a lot of confidence.  As for the Total, our estimate is basically right on the line, so we would lay off the total unless you tease it.

 

The PiRate Ratings NFL Wildcard Playoff Teasers

Once playoff season begins, there are fewer and fewer chances to play our successful teasers, but 2018 was a very good one for us, as our NFL Teasers returned a neat little imaginary profit.  We hope you understand that our wagering is only hypothetical, as no real currency ever changes hands, and we highly encourage you not to lose your mortgage payment by relying on our selections.

We have two 13-point teaser selections for this week’s Wildcard Round.  One is a four-team parlay on sides, and one is a four-team parlay on totals.  These parlays both have 12-10 odds.

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Indianapolis	Houston	12	Houston
Dallas	Seattle	15	Seattle
Baltimore	L.A. Chargers	16	L.A. Chargers
Chicago	Philadelphia	19.5	Philadelphia

 

Team	Team	Total	Pick
Houston	Indianapolis	61.5	UNDER
Dallas	Seattle	30	OVER
Baltimore	L.A. Chargers	28.5	OVER
Chicago	Philadelphia	28	OVER

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for The Wildcard Playoff Round: January 5-6, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Total
Houston	Indianapolis	2.0	2.7	2.1	49.5
Dallas	Seattle	-1.6	-1.9	-2.8	44.5
Baltimore	L.A. Chargers	2.6	2.4	2.4	43
Chicago	Philadelphia	5.5	5.5	6.4	44.5

The Wildcard Playoff Schedule

Saturday,  January 5, 2019

4:35 PM Eastern Standard Time

TV: ESPN

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

 

8:15 PM Eastern Standard Time

TV: Fox Network

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys

 

Sunday, January 6, 2109

1:05 PM Eastern Standard Time

TV: CBS

Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens

 

4:40 PM Eastern Standard Time

TV: NBC

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears

 

For the Divisional Playoff Round

The lower remaining seed in the AFC will play at Kansas City on Saturday, January 12, on NBC at 4:35 PM EST

 

The higher remaining seed in the NFC will play at the Los Angeles Rams on Saturday, January 12, on Fox Network at 8:15 PM EST

 

The higher remaining seed in the AFC will play at New England on Sunday, January 13, on CBS at 1:05 PM EST

 

The lower remaining seed in the NFC will play at New Orleans on Sunday, January 13, on Fox Network at 4:40 PM EST

Ratings of the Playoff Teams

Playoff Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg.	Total	W-L
New Orleans	112.3	112.3	112.3	112.3	27	13-3
Kansas City	106.8	107.0	106.6	106.8	30.5	12-4
LA Rams	106.5	106.7	106.3	106.5	29	13-3
Chicago	104.9	105.1	105.8	105.3	21.5	12-4
New England	105.0	105.1	104.9	105.0	22.5	11-5
Seattle	104.6	104.7	105.2	104.8	24	10-6
LA Chargers	104.3	105.0	104.8	104.7	23	12-4
Baltimore	104.5	104.9	104.7	104.7	20	10-6
Indianapolis	102.9	102.3	103.3	102.8	25.5	10-6
Houston	102.4	102.5	103.0	102.6	24	11-5
Philadelphia	102.4	102.6	102.5	102.5	23	9-7
Dallas	100.5	100.3	99.9	100.2	20.5	10-6

 

Note: The College Basketball Bracket Gurus will debut next week.  Most of the gurus are enjoying vacations this week and did not submit their data to us.

PiRate Ratings Selections for December 29- January 1 Bowls and NFL Week 17

This is a very busy day here on the PiRate ship, as we will debut our 2018-19 version of PiRate Ratings Basketball later today.

The Land Sharps have been coming down to Earth since their blistering hot November, as December has not been kind to our five friends.  At the same time, the PiRate Ratings picks have continued to win in December, especially the Bowl game Money Lines, where we have experimented with playing the underdog in every game and finding the most favorable underdog Money Line odds.  With underdogs winning all three games on Thursday, the Return on Investment for this system to date is now 64.16%!  This includes a push in the Boston College and Boise State game that was cancelled due to severe lightning.

This Week’s Land Sharp Picks

Cal Gal Tiffany

Nevada -1 vs. Arkansas St.

Central Florida +8 vs. LSU

Texas +14 vs. Georgia

 

Stewed Meat

Mississippi St. -7 vs. Auburn

Penn St. -6 vs. Kentucky

Texas +14 vs. Georgia

 

Dean 615

Florida +6 vs. Michigan

Notre Dame +12.5 vs. Clemson

Oklahoma +15 vs. Alabama

 

Buckeye Michelle

Oklahoma St. +9 vs. Missouri

Ohio State – 6.5 vs. Washington

Texas +14 vs. Georgia

 

Friday Dog 13

Auburn -3 vs. Purdue

Michigan -5.5 vs. Florida

Clemson -12 vs. Notre Dame

 

The PiRate Ratings Picks

10-point Teasers
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Houston	Jacksonville	17	Jacksonville
Green Bay	Detroit	19	Detroit
New England	N.Y. Jets	24.5	N.Y. Jets
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Minnesota	Chicago	14.5	Chicago
Kansas City	Oakland	24.5	Oakland
Philadelphia	Washington	17.5	Washington
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
L.A. Rams	San Francisco	0.5	L.A.Rams
L.A. Chargers	Denver	17	Denver
Tennessee	Indianapolis	7	Indianapolis
Team	Team	Total	Pick
Houston	Jacksonville	50	UNDER
Green Bay	Detroit	34.5	OVER
Atlanta	Tampa Bay	61.5	UNDER
Team	Team	Total	Pick
New England	N.Y. Jets	35	OVER
Chicago	Minnesota	30	OVER
Oakland	Kansas City	42.5	OVER
Team	Team	Total	Pick
Philadelphia	Washington	32	OVER
L.A.Rams	San Francisco	38.5	OVER
L.A. Chargers	Denver	31.5	OVER
13-point Teasers
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
New Orleans	Carolina	21.5	Carolina
Miami	Buffalo	8	Buffalo
Pittsburgh	Cincinnati	3	Pittsburgh
Baltimore	Cleveland	18.5	Cleveland
Team	Team	Total	Pick
Pittsburgh	Cincinnati	58.5	UNDER
Cleveland	Baltimore	27.5	OVER
Arizona	Seattle	25.5	OVER
Indianapolis	Tennessee	30.5	OVER
Favorite	Underdog	Moneyline	Pick
Michigan	Florida	+210	Florida
South Carolina	Virginia	+185	Virginia
Nevada	Arkansas St.	+105	Arkansas St.
Clemson	Notre Dame	+380	Notre Dame
Alabama	Oklahoma	+490	Oklahoma
Cincinnati	Virginia Tech	+195	Virginia Tech
Stanford	Pittsburgh	+195	Pittsburgh
Oregon	Michigan St.	+120	Michigan St.
Missouri	Oklahoma St.	+315	Oklahoma St.
Utah	Northwestern	+255	Northwestern
Texas A&M	North Carolina St.	+248	North Carolina St.
Mississippi St.	Iowa	+245	Iowa
LSU	Central Florida	+260	Central Florida
Penn St.	Kentucky	+220	Kentucky
Ohio St.	Washington	+220	Washington
Georgia	Texas	+410	Texas

 

Remember: Neither the Land Sharps or the PiRates wager real money on the selections presented here at this site.  We recommend you do the same.  This is for entertainment purposes only.

Check back at this site Friday afternoon for our first college basketball report of the season, featuring our top 25, picks of games involving teams in power conferences, and a little something else.

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 17: December 30, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Total
New Orleans	Carolina	10.5	11.0	10.7	50
Houston	Jacksonville	7.6	8.1	8.6	42
Green Bay	Detroit	5.2	5.9	5.8	48
Tampa Bay	Atlanta	-2.1	-1.8	-1.0	50.5
N.Y. Giants	Dallas	0.5	0.7	1.3	42.5
New England	N.Y. Jets	12.4	13.0	12.7	47.5
Buffalo	Miami	1.4	1.9	1.8	40
Minnesota	Chicago	0.8	0.9	0.0	42.5
Kansas City	Oakland	17.0	17.1	16.9	52.5
Pittsburgh	Cincinnati	15.1	15.2	15.5	48
Baltimore	Cleveland	9.7	9.8	9.2	44
Washington	Philadelphia	-8.2	-8.9	-8.4	45.5
Seattle	Arizona	15.2	15.9	16.4	41
L.A. Rams	San Francisco	13.5	13.7	13.5	49
Denver	L.A. Chargers	-4.7	-5.5	-5.4	43
Tennessee	Indianapolis	-2.0	-1.4	-2.6	45

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	105.0	105.1	104.9	105.0	22.5	10-5
N. Y. Jets	95.1	94.6	94.7	94.8	25	4-11
Miami	94.0	93.6	93.6	93.7	23	7-8
Buffalo	92.9	93.0	92.9	92.9	17	5-10
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Pittsburgh	107.2	107.4	107.4	107.3	24.5	8-6-1
Baltimore	104.5	104.9	104.7	104.7	20	9-6
Cleveland	97.7	98.1	98.5	98.1	24	7-7-1
Cincinnati	95.1	95.2	94.9	95.1	23.5	6-9
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Indianapolis	102.9	102.3	103.3	102.8	25.5	9-6
Houston	102.4	102.5	103.0	102.6	24.5	10-5
Tennessee	98.8	98.9	98.8	98.8	19.5	9-6
Jacksonville	97.3	96.9	96.9	97.0	17.5	5-10
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	106.8	107.0	106.6	106.8	31	11-4
LA Chargers	104.3	105.0	104.8	104.7	23.5	11-4
Denver	98.7	98.5	98.4	98.5	19.5	6-9
Oakland	92.2	92.4	92.3	92.3	21.5	4-11
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Philadelphia	102.4	102.6	102.5	102.5	23.5	8-7
Dallas	100.5	100.3	99.9	100.2	19.5	9-6
N.Y. Giants	97.5	97.5	97.7	97.6	23	5-10
Washington	94.3	93.7	94.1	94.0	22	7-8
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Chicago	104.9	105.1	105.8	105.3	22	11-4
Minnesota	103.3	103.4	103.3	103.3	20.5	8-6-1
Green Bay	99.8	100.2	99.7	99.9	25	6-8-1
Detroit	97.6	97.3	96.8	97.2	23	5-10
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	112.3	112.3	112.3	112.3	27	13-2
Atlanta	100.0	99.9	99.8	99.9	25.5	6-9
Carolina	99.8	99.3	99.5	99.5	23	6-9
Tampa Bay	95.9	96.1	96.8	96.3	25	5-10
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	106.5	106.7	106.3	106.5	28	12-3
Seattle	104.6	104.7	105.2	104.8	23.5	9-6
San Francisco	95.5	95.5	95.3	95.4	21	4-11
Arizona	91.9	91.3	91.2	91.5	17.5	3-12

 

The Playoff Scenarios

AFC

1.) Kansas City Chiefs

If the Chiefs beat Oakland, they win the #1 seed in the AFC and will have homefield advantage throughout the playoffs to the Super Bowl.

If the Chiefs lose to Oakland, then they can fall to the #5 seed if the Chargers beat Denver.  If the Chargers also lose, then the Chiefs will still win the AFC West, but they could fall to the #2 seed if New England or Houston wins, and the #3 seed if both New England and Houston win.

 

2.) New England Patriots

If the Patriots beat the New York Jets, they can be no worse than the #2 seed no matter what Houston does.  If the Pats beat the Jets and Kansas City loses to Oakland, New England will grab the #1 seed and get homefield advantage throughout the AFC Playoffs.

If the Patriots lose to the Jets, and Baltimore beats Cleveland, then the Patriots lose a first round bye and will be the #3 seed if Indianapolis beats Tennessee and the #4 seed if Tennessee beats Indianapolis.

If the Patriots lose and Baltimore also loses, New England retains the #2 seed if Indianapolis beats Tennessee, but they fall to the #3 seed if Baltimore loses but Tennessee beats Indianapolis.

 

3.) Houston Texas

Houston can still earn the #1 seed, if the Texans beat Jacksonville, while Kansas City and New England both lose.  If Houston wins but either Kansas City or New England win their games, the Texans would be the #2 seed.  If Houston wins but Kansas City and New England both win, then Houston gets the #3 seed.

If Houston loses to Jacksonville, then the Texans fall into a wildcard spot, as the winner of the Tennessee-Indianapolis game would win the AFC South.  Houston would fall to a #6 seed with a loss.

 

4. ) Baltimore Ravens or Pittsburgh Steelers

If the Ravens beat Cleveland, they are the AFC North Champion.  They can earn the #2 seed if Houston and New England both lose.  They will earn the #3 seed if they win and either New England or Houston loses.  They will earn the #4 seed if both New England and Houston win.

If the Ravens lose, but Pittsburgh also loses, they will be the #4 seed, but if the Ravens lose and Pittsburgh wins, the Steelers will win the AFC North, and the Ravens will be eliminated.  In the rare event that Pittsburgh wins and Baltimore ties Cleveland, then Pittsburgh will win the tiebreaker and become the AFC North champions and #4 Seed.

If Pittsburgh and Baltimore both win, then the Steelers could only squeak in as a Wildcard team if Indianapolis and Tennessee were to tie.

 

5.) Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers can still win the AFC West and wrap up the top seed in the AFC if they beat Denver and Oakland beats Kansas City.  If Kansas City and the Chargers both win, then the Chargers are the #5 seed.

If the Chargers lose to Denver, then they are the #5 seed regardless of the outcomes of any other games.

 

6.) Tennessee Titans or Indianapolis Colts

Since this is the Sunday Night Game, both teams will know their fate when this game kicks off.

First, the winner of this game will be in the playoffs, while the loser will not be in the playoffs.  If the game ties, then either Indianapolis will be in the playoffs and Tennessee will be out, or both teams will be eliminated if Pittsburgh and Baltimore both win.

If Houston loses earlier in the day, then the winner of this game will win the AFC South.

If Tennessee beats Indianapolis:

The Titans can move up as high as the #2 seed if they beat the Colts, while New England, Houston, and Baltimore all lose.  The Titans can earn the #3 seed, if they beat the Colts, while New England and Houston lose but Baltimore wins or While Houston loses and Baltimore loses.  The Titans can earn the #4 seed if they beat the Colts, while Houston loses, and New England and Baltimore win.

If Tennessee beats Indianapolis, while Baltimore, New England, and Houston win, the Titans are the #6 seed.

If Indianapolis beats Tennessee:

The Colts can move no higher than a #3 seed if Houston loses to Jacksonville and Baltimore loses to Cleveland, no matter what happens in the other games.  If Indianapolis wins, Houston loses, and Baltimore wins, then the Colts are the #4 seed.

If Indianapolis wins and Houston wins, then the Colts are the #6 seed

 

NFC

1.) New Orleans Saints

The Saints have clinched the #1 overall seed in the NFC and have homefield advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.  Thus, they can rest Drew Brees and other key players this week in a meaningless game against Carolina.

 

2.) Los Angeles Rams

If the Rams beat San Francisco or Chicago loses to Minnesota, the Rams are the #2 seed.

If the Rams lose to the 49ers, while Chicago beats Minnesota, the Rams fall to a #3 seed and lose a first round bye.

 

3.) Chicago Bears

If Chicago wins and the Rams lose, the Bears get a bye and the #2 seed.

If Chicago wins and the Rams win, or if the Bears lose, they will be the #3 seed.

 

4.) Dallas Cowboys

Dallas is the automatic #4 seed, win or lose against the Giants.  The Cowboys will rest their starters in a meaningless game that could be Eli Manning’s last in a Giants’ uniform.

 

5.) Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks have clinched a Wildcard berth in the NFC Playoffs.  If Seattle wins, or Minnesota loses, then the Seahawks are the #5 seed.  If Seattle loses and Minnesota wins, the Seahawks fall to the #6 seed.

 

6.) Minnesota Vikings or Philadelphia Eagles

If Minnesota beats Chicago, the Vikings earn a Wildcard Bid, and would be the #5 seed if Seattle loses and the #6 seed if Seattle wins.

If Minnesota loses, then if Philadelphia beats Washington, the Eagles will earn the Wildcard bid and #6 seed, and the Vikings would be eliminated.

If both Minnesota and Philadelphia lose, then the Vikings sneak in as the #6 seed.

In the rare event that Minnesota ties Chicago, the Vikings would still be the #6 seed at 8-6-2, even if Philadelphia wins to get to 9-7.