PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 3: September 19-23, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Jacksonville	Tennessee	-0.8	-0.5	-0.5
Green Bay	Denver	4.4	4.5	4.9
Philadelphia	Detroit	9.4	7.9	6.5
Kansas City	Baltimore	7.0	8.6	6.9
Buffalo	Cincinnati	3.1	4.8	3.2
Indianapolis	Atlanta	0.4	0.4	0.3
Minnesota	Oakland	11.1	8.9	8.3
New England	N.Y. Jets	15.3	14.9	15.4
Dallas	Miami	19.1	20.1	20.0
Tampa Bay	N.Y. Giants	1.8	4.7	4.5
Arizona	Carolina	-1.1	-0.2	0.0
Seattle	New Orleans	-1.6	2.6	2.5
LA Chargers	Houston	3.1	3.5	3.1
San Francisco	Pittsburgh	7.1	8.7	8.7
Cleveland	LA Rams	-4.7	-1.8	-1.9
Washington	Chicago	-8.0	-1.6	-1.9

Totals

Home	Visitor	Total
Jacksonville	Tennessee	38
Green Bay	Denver	43.5
Philadelphia	Detroit	44
Kansas City	Baltimore	52.5
Buffalo	Cincinnati	46
Indianapolis	Atlanta	48.5
Minnesota	Oakland	44
New England	N.Y. Jets	44.5
Dallas	Miami	49.5
Tampa Bay	N.Y. Giants	51
Arizona	Carolina	45
Seattle	New Orleans	48
LA Chargers	Houston	44.5
San Francisco	Pittsburgh	46.5
Cleveland	LA Rams	50.5
Washington	Chicago	42

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	108.0	109.0	108.2	108.4	22	2-0
Buffalo	97.7	99.1	98.3	98.4	19.5	2-0
N. Y. Jets	95.2	96.6	95.3	95.7	22.5	0-2
Miami	86.7	86.7	86.3	86.6	28	0-2
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	102.2	101.6	102.8	102.2	22	2-0
Cleveland	100.9	101.4	101.5	101.3	23.5	1-1
Cincinnati	97.1	96.8	97.6	97.2	26.5	0-2
Pittsburgh	95.9	96.0	96.2	96.0	22	0-2
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Houston	102.4	102.4	101.9	102.3	22	1-1
Tennessee	100.1	100.4	100.5	100.3	19	1-1
Indianapolis	98.0	98.9	98.3	98.4	22.5	1-1
Jacksonville	96.8	97.4	97.5	97.2	19	0-2
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	106.7	107.7	107.2	107.2	30.5	2-0
LA Chargers	103.0	103.4	102.5	102.9	22.5	1-1
Denver	99.4	99.5	99.2	99.4	20	0-2
Oakland	95.6	95.7	96.3	95.9	22.5	1-1
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	103.3	104.3	103.8	103.8	21.5	2-0
Philadelphia	105.5	102.8	102.5	103.6	23	1-1
Washington	95.2	97.2	97.1	96.5	21.5	0-2
N.Y. Giants	94.2	94.7	95.4	94.8	24.5	0-2
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Chicago	105.7	101.3	101.5	102.8	20.5	1-1
Minnesota	104.2	102.1	102.1	102.8	21.5	1-1
Green Bay	101.3	101.5	101.6	101.5	23.5	2-0
Detroit	98.6	97.4	98.5	98.2	21	1-0-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	106.9	102.8	102.9	104.2	24	1-1
Atlanta	100.1	101.0	100.5	100.5	26	1-1
Carolina	99.5	99.1	99.7	99.4	23	0-2
Tampa Bay	93.5	96.9	97.4	95.9	26.5	1-1
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	108.6	106.2	106.4	107.1	27	2-0
Seattle	102.3	102.4	102.4	102.4	24	2-0
San Francisco	100.0	101.7	101.9	101.2	24.5	2-0
Arizona	95.4	95.9	96.7	96.0	22	0-1-1

 

Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1	New England
2	Kansas City
3	Baltimore
4	Indianapolis
5	Buffalo
6	Cleveland
NFC Seeding
1	LA Rams
2	Dallas
3	Green Bay
4	Atlanta
5	Philadelphia
6	Seattle

Wildcard Round

Baltimore over Cleveland

Buffalo over Indianapolis

Green Bay over Seattle

Philadelphia over Atlanta

Divisional Round

New England over Buffalo

Kansas City over Baltimore

LA Rams over Philadelphia

Green Bay over Dallas

Conference Championship

New England over Kansas City

LA Rams over Green Bay

Super Bowl 53

New England over LA Rams

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for The Divisional Playoff Round: January 12-13, 2019

NFL Divisional Playoff Round Ratings and Information

 

Saturday, January 12, 2019

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs

Time: 4:35 PM Eastern Standard

TV: NBC

Pirate Ratings Spreads

PiRate: Kansas City by 6.4 

Mean: Kansas City by 7.2

Bias: Kansas City by 5.7

Total: 55

Expected Score: Kansas City 31  Indianapolis 24

———————————————————————————-

Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams

Time: 8:15 PM Eastern Standard

TV: Fox 

Pirate Ratings Spreads

PiRate:  Los Angeles by 8.5

Mean: Los Angeles by 8.8

Bias: Los Angeles by 8.8

Total: 49.5

Expected Score: Los Angeles 30  Dallas 21

—————————————————————————-

Sunday, January 13, 2019

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots

Time: 1:05 PM Eastern Standard

TV: CBS

PiRate Ratings Spreads

PiRate: New England by 3.5

Mean: New England by 2.8

Bias: New England by 2.7

Total: 45.5

Expected Score: New England 24  Los Angeles 21

———————————————————————————-

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints

Time: 4:40 PM Eastern Standard

TV: Fox

PiRate Ratings Spreads

PiRate: New Orleans by 12.8 

Mean: New Orleans by 12.5

Bias: New Orleans by 12.4

Total: 49

Expected Score: New Orleans 31  Philadelphia 17

PiRate Ratings Selections for The College Football National Championship Game & The NFL Wildcard Playoff Round

Final Land Sharp Selections

The Land Sharps are limping home to the finish, as the Bowl season did not go so well for our five friends.  Let’s give them all some props for faring so well during the regular season.  It isn’t easy to stay above the magic 52.4% success rate that a sports investor needs to return a profit, and all five did so throughout the regular season.

Now, here’s something else you should know.  If you are a regular reader here, you may recall just after the bowls and playoffs were announced, that we told you about our experiment in playing the Money Line on every bowl game and by investing the identical amount on the underdog to win outright.  We tested this out last year with a healthy profit.

If last year was a healthy profit, this year was a giant windfall!  Friends, this method drained the imaginary money from the imaginary sports book like it was Jesse and Frank James robbing it.  The return on investment was over 61%, as 16 of the 38 underdogs won outright, returning an average of $289 per upset.  If you had the funds and could afford to put down $10,000 on the Underdog on the 39 games (which became 38 after the postponement of the former Heart of Dallas Bowl), these money line wagers would have returned just under a quarter million dollars.  WOW!

Now, to make it even better.  Had you only played the 36 bowl games and not the two playoff games, you would have gone 16-20 and your return on investment would have been 76.5%!  Where else can you get a 76.5% return on your investment in 17 days?

Here are the final Land Sharp Picks for the National Championship Game.  Our Land Sharps made these selections earlier in the week when the going odds were:

Alabama – 5.5

Clemson +7

Over 59.5

Under 60 

 

Three of the Land Sharps selected Clemson and took the points

Cal Gal Tiffany, Dean615, and Stewed Meat

Two of the Land Sharps selected Alabama and gave the points

Buckeye Michelle and Friday Dog 13

 

Four of the Land Sharps took the OVER

Cal Gal Tiffany, Dean615, Buckeye Michelle, and Friday Dog 13

One Land Sharp took the UNDER

Stewed Meat

 

As for the PiRates, we issued our ratings earlier this week, and they showed that Alabama is favored by 1 to 2 points, so if you go by our ratings, the play would be Clemson but without a lot of confidence.  As for the Total, our estimate is basically right on the line, so we would lay off the total unless you tease it.

 

The PiRate Ratings NFL Wildcard Playoff Teasers

Once playoff season begins, there are fewer and fewer chances to play our successful teasers, but 2018 was a very good one for us, as our NFL Teasers returned a neat little imaginary profit.  We hope you understand that our wagering is only hypothetical, as no real currency ever changes hands, and we highly encourage you not to lose your mortgage payment by relying on our selections.

We have two 13-point teaser selections for this week’s Wildcard Round.  One is a four-team parlay on sides, and one is a four-team parlay on totals.  These parlays both have 12-10 odds.

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Indianapolis	Houston	12	Houston
Dallas	Seattle	15	Seattle
Baltimore	L.A. Chargers	16	L.A. Chargers
Chicago	Philadelphia	19.5	Philadelphia

 

Team	Team	Total	Pick
Houston	Indianapolis	61.5	UNDER
Dallas	Seattle	30	OVER
Baltimore	L.A. Chargers	28.5	OVER
Chicago	Philadelphia	28	OVER

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for The Wildcard Playoff Round: January 5-6, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Total
Houston	Indianapolis	2.0	2.7	2.1	49.5
Dallas	Seattle	-1.6	-1.9	-2.8	44.5
Baltimore	L.A. Chargers	2.6	2.4	2.4	43
Chicago	Philadelphia	5.5	5.5	6.4	44.5

The Wildcard Playoff Schedule

Saturday,  January 5, 2019

4:35 PM Eastern Standard Time

TV: ESPN

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

 

8:15 PM Eastern Standard Time

TV: Fox Network

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys

 

Sunday, January 6, 2109

1:05 PM Eastern Standard Time

TV: CBS

Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens

 

4:40 PM Eastern Standard Time

TV: NBC

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears

 

For the Divisional Playoff Round

The lower remaining seed in the AFC will play at Kansas City on Saturday, January 12, on NBC at 4:35 PM EST

 

The higher remaining seed in the NFC will play at the Los Angeles Rams on Saturday, January 12, on Fox Network at 8:15 PM EST

 

The higher remaining seed in the AFC will play at New England on Sunday, January 13, on CBS at 1:05 PM EST

 

The lower remaining seed in the NFC will play at New Orleans on Sunday, January 13, on Fox Network at 4:40 PM EST

Ratings of the Playoff Teams

Playoff Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg.	Total	W-L
New Orleans	112.3	112.3	112.3	112.3	27	13-3
Kansas City	106.8	107.0	106.6	106.8	30.5	12-4
LA Rams	106.5	106.7	106.3	106.5	29	13-3
Chicago	104.9	105.1	105.8	105.3	21.5	12-4
New England	105.0	105.1	104.9	105.0	22.5	11-5
Seattle	104.6	104.7	105.2	104.8	24	10-6
LA Chargers	104.3	105.0	104.8	104.7	23	12-4
Baltimore	104.5	104.9	104.7	104.7	20	10-6
Indianapolis	102.9	102.3	103.3	102.8	25.5	10-6
Houston	102.4	102.5	103.0	102.6	24	11-5
Philadelphia	102.4	102.6	102.5	102.5	23	9-7
Dallas	100.5	100.3	99.9	100.2	20.5	10-6

 

Note: The College Basketball Bracket Gurus will debut next week.  Most of the gurus are enjoying vacations this week and did not submit their data to us.

PiRate Ratings Selections for December 29- January 1 Bowls and NFL Week 17

This is a very busy day here on the PiRate ship, as we will debut our 2018-19 version of PiRate Ratings Basketball later today.

The Land Sharps have been coming down to Earth since their blistering hot November, as December has not been kind to our five friends.  At the same time, the PiRate Ratings picks have continued to win in December, especially the Bowl game Money Lines, where we have experimented with playing the underdog in every game and finding the most favorable underdog Money Line odds.  With underdogs winning all three games on Thursday, the Return on Investment for this system to date is now 64.16%!  This includes a push in the Boston College and Boise State game that was cancelled due to severe lightning.

This Week’s Land Sharp Picks

Cal Gal Tiffany

Nevada -1 vs. Arkansas St.

Central Florida +8 vs. LSU

Texas +14 vs. Georgia

 

Stewed Meat

Mississippi St. -7 vs. Auburn

Penn St. -6 vs. Kentucky

Texas +14 vs. Georgia

 

Dean 615

Florida +6 vs. Michigan

Notre Dame +12.5 vs. Clemson

Oklahoma +15 vs. Alabama

 

Buckeye Michelle

Oklahoma St. +9 vs. Missouri

Ohio State – 6.5 vs. Washington

Texas +14 vs. Georgia

 

Friday Dog 13

Auburn -3 vs. Purdue

Michigan -5.5 vs. Florida

Clemson -12 vs. Notre Dame

 

The PiRate Ratings Picks

10-point Teasers
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Houston	Jacksonville	17	Jacksonville
Green Bay	Detroit	19	Detroit
New England	N.Y. Jets	24.5	N.Y. Jets
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Minnesota	Chicago	14.5	Chicago
Kansas City	Oakland	24.5	Oakland
Philadelphia	Washington	17.5	Washington
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
L.A. Rams	San Francisco	0.5	L.A.Rams
L.A. Chargers	Denver	17	Denver
Tennessee	Indianapolis	7	Indianapolis
Team	Team	Total	Pick
Houston	Jacksonville	50	UNDER
Green Bay	Detroit	34.5	OVER
Atlanta	Tampa Bay	61.5	UNDER
Team	Team	Total	Pick
New England	N.Y. Jets	35	OVER
Chicago	Minnesota	30	OVER
Oakland	Kansas City	42.5	OVER
Team	Team	Total	Pick
Philadelphia	Washington	32	OVER
L.A.Rams	San Francisco	38.5	OVER
L.A. Chargers	Denver	31.5	OVER
13-point Teasers
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
New Orleans	Carolina	21.5	Carolina
Miami	Buffalo	8	Buffalo
Pittsburgh	Cincinnati	3	Pittsburgh
Baltimore	Cleveland	18.5	Cleveland
Team	Team	Total	Pick
Pittsburgh	Cincinnati	58.5	UNDER
Cleveland	Baltimore	27.5	OVER
Arizona	Seattle	25.5	OVER
Indianapolis	Tennessee	30.5	OVER
Favorite	Underdog	Moneyline	Pick
Michigan	Florida	+210	Florida
South Carolina	Virginia	+185	Virginia
Nevada	Arkansas St.	+105	Arkansas St.
Clemson	Notre Dame	+380	Notre Dame
Alabama	Oklahoma	+490	Oklahoma
Cincinnati	Virginia Tech	+195	Virginia Tech
Stanford	Pittsburgh	+195	Pittsburgh
Oregon	Michigan St.	+120	Michigan St.
Missouri	Oklahoma St.	+315	Oklahoma St.
Utah	Northwestern	+255	Northwestern
Texas A&M	North Carolina St.	+248	North Carolina St.
Mississippi St.	Iowa	+245	Iowa
LSU	Central Florida	+260	Central Florida
Penn St.	Kentucky	+220	Kentucky
Ohio St.	Washington	+220	Washington
Georgia	Texas	+410	Texas

 

Remember: Neither the Land Sharps or the PiRates wager real money on the selections presented here at this site.  We recommend you do the same.  This is for entertainment purposes only.

Check back at this site Friday afternoon for our first college basketball report of the season, featuring our top 25, picks of games involving teams in power conferences, and a little something else.

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 17: December 30, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Total
New Orleans	Carolina	10.5	11.0	10.7	50
Houston	Jacksonville	7.6	8.1	8.6	42
Green Bay	Detroit	5.2	5.9	5.8	48
Tampa Bay	Atlanta	-2.1	-1.8	-1.0	50.5
N.Y. Giants	Dallas	0.5	0.7	1.3	42.5
New England	N.Y. Jets	12.4	13.0	12.7	47.5
Buffalo	Miami	1.4	1.9	1.8	40
Minnesota	Chicago	0.8	0.9	0.0	42.5
Kansas City	Oakland	17.0	17.1	16.9	52.5
Pittsburgh	Cincinnati	15.1	15.2	15.5	48
Baltimore	Cleveland	9.7	9.8	9.2	44
Washington	Philadelphia	-8.2	-8.9	-8.4	45.5
Seattle	Arizona	15.2	15.9	16.4	41
L.A. Rams	San Francisco	13.5	13.7	13.5	49
Denver	L.A. Chargers	-4.7	-5.5	-5.4	43
Tennessee	Indianapolis	-2.0	-1.4	-2.6	45

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	105.0	105.1	104.9	105.0	22.5	10-5
N. Y. Jets	95.1	94.6	94.7	94.8	25	4-11
Miami	94.0	93.6	93.6	93.7	23	7-8
Buffalo	92.9	93.0	92.9	92.9	17	5-10
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Pittsburgh	107.2	107.4	107.4	107.3	24.5	8-6-1
Baltimore	104.5	104.9	104.7	104.7	20	9-6
Cleveland	97.7	98.1	98.5	98.1	24	7-7-1
Cincinnati	95.1	95.2	94.9	95.1	23.5	6-9
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Indianapolis	102.9	102.3	103.3	102.8	25.5	9-6
Houston	102.4	102.5	103.0	102.6	24.5	10-5
Tennessee	98.8	98.9	98.8	98.8	19.5	9-6
Jacksonville	97.3	96.9	96.9	97.0	17.5	5-10
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	106.8	107.0	106.6	106.8	31	11-4
LA Chargers	104.3	105.0	104.8	104.7	23.5	11-4
Denver	98.7	98.5	98.4	98.5	19.5	6-9
Oakland	92.2	92.4	92.3	92.3	21.5	4-11
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Philadelphia	102.4	102.6	102.5	102.5	23.5	8-7
Dallas	100.5	100.3	99.9	100.2	19.5	9-6
N.Y. Giants	97.5	97.5	97.7	97.6	23	5-10
Washington	94.3	93.7	94.1	94.0	22	7-8
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Chicago	104.9	105.1	105.8	105.3	22	11-4
Minnesota	103.3	103.4	103.3	103.3	20.5	8-6-1
Green Bay	99.8	100.2	99.7	99.9	25	6-8-1
Detroit	97.6	97.3	96.8	97.2	23	5-10
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	112.3	112.3	112.3	112.3	27	13-2
Atlanta	100.0	99.9	99.8	99.9	25.5	6-9
Carolina	99.8	99.3	99.5	99.5	23	6-9
Tampa Bay	95.9	96.1	96.8	96.3	25	5-10
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	106.5	106.7	106.3	106.5	28	12-3
Seattle	104.6	104.7	105.2	104.8	23.5	9-6
San Francisco	95.5	95.5	95.3	95.4	21	4-11
Arizona	91.9	91.3	91.2	91.5	17.5	3-12

 

The Playoff Scenarios

AFC

1.) Kansas City Chiefs

If the Chiefs beat Oakland, they win the #1 seed in the AFC and will have homefield advantage throughout the playoffs to the Super Bowl.

If the Chiefs lose to Oakland, then they can fall to the #5 seed if the Chargers beat Denver.  If the Chargers also lose, then the Chiefs will still win the AFC West, but they could fall to the #2 seed if New England or Houston wins, and the #3 seed if both New England and Houston win.

 

2.) New England Patriots

If the Patriots beat the New York Jets, they can be no worse than the #2 seed no matter what Houston does.  If the Pats beat the Jets and Kansas City loses to Oakland, New England will grab the #1 seed and get homefield advantage throughout the AFC Playoffs.

If the Patriots lose to the Jets, and Baltimore beats Cleveland, then the Patriots lose a first round bye and will be the #3 seed if Indianapolis beats Tennessee and the #4 seed if Tennessee beats Indianapolis.

If the Patriots lose and Baltimore also loses, New England retains the #2 seed if Indianapolis beats Tennessee, but they fall to the #3 seed if Baltimore loses but Tennessee beats Indianapolis.

 

3.) Houston Texas

Houston can still earn the #1 seed, if the Texans beat Jacksonville, while Kansas City and New England both lose.  If Houston wins but either Kansas City or New England win their games, the Texans would be the #2 seed.  If Houston wins but Kansas City and New England both win, then Houston gets the #3 seed.

If Houston loses to Jacksonville, then the Texans fall into a wildcard spot, as the winner of the Tennessee-Indianapolis game would win the AFC South.  Houston would fall to a #6 seed with a loss.

 

4. ) Baltimore Ravens or Pittsburgh Steelers

If the Ravens beat Cleveland, they are the AFC North Champion.  They can earn the #2 seed if Houston and New England both lose.  They will earn the #3 seed if they win and either New England or Houston loses.  They will earn the #4 seed if both New England and Houston win.

If the Ravens lose, but Pittsburgh also loses, they will be the #4 seed, but if the Ravens lose and Pittsburgh wins, the Steelers will win the AFC North, and the Ravens will be eliminated.  In the rare event that Pittsburgh wins and Baltimore ties Cleveland, then Pittsburgh will win the tiebreaker and become the AFC North champions and #4 Seed.

If Pittsburgh and Baltimore both win, then the Steelers could only squeak in as a Wildcard team if Indianapolis and Tennessee were to tie.

 

5.) Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers can still win the AFC West and wrap up the top seed in the AFC if they beat Denver and Oakland beats Kansas City.  If Kansas City and the Chargers both win, then the Chargers are the #5 seed.

If the Chargers lose to Denver, then they are the #5 seed regardless of the outcomes of any other games.

 

6.) Tennessee Titans or Indianapolis Colts

Since this is the Sunday Night Game, both teams will know their fate when this game kicks off.

First, the winner of this game will be in the playoffs, while the loser will not be in the playoffs.  If the game ties, then either Indianapolis will be in the playoffs and Tennessee will be out, or both teams will be eliminated if Pittsburgh and Baltimore both win.

If Houston loses earlier in the day, then the winner of this game will win the AFC South.

If Tennessee beats Indianapolis:

The Titans can move up as high as the #2 seed if they beat the Colts, while New England, Houston, and Baltimore all lose.  The Titans can earn the #3 seed, if they beat the Colts, while New England and Houston lose but Baltimore wins or While Houston loses and Baltimore loses.  The Titans can earn the #4 seed if they beat the Colts, while Houston loses, and New England and Baltimore win.

If Tennessee beats Indianapolis, while Baltimore, New England, and Houston win, the Titans are the #6 seed.

If Indianapolis beats Tennessee:

The Colts can move no higher than a #3 seed if Houston loses to Jacksonville and Baltimore loses to Cleveland, no matter what happens in the other games.  If Indianapolis wins, Houston loses, and Baltimore wins, then the Colts are the #4 seed.

If Indianapolis wins and Houston wins, then the Colts are the #6 seed

 

NFC

1.) New Orleans Saints

The Saints have clinched the #1 overall seed in the NFC and have homefield advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.  Thus, they can rest Drew Brees and other key players this week in a meaningless game against Carolina.

 

2.) Los Angeles Rams

If the Rams beat San Francisco or Chicago loses to Minnesota, the Rams are the #2 seed.

If the Rams lose to the 49ers, while Chicago beats Minnesota, the Rams fall to a #3 seed and lose a first round bye.

 

3.) Chicago Bears

If Chicago wins and the Rams lose, the Bears get a bye and the #2 seed.

If Chicago wins and the Rams win, or if the Bears lose, they will be the #3 seed.

 

4.) Dallas Cowboys

Dallas is the automatic #4 seed, win or lose against the Giants.  The Cowboys will rest their starters in a meaningless game that could be Eli Manning’s last in a Giants’ uniform.

 

5.) Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks have clinched a Wildcard berth in the NFC Playoffs.  If Seattle wins, or Minnesota loses, then the Seahawks are the #5 seed.  If Seattle loses and Minnesota wins, the Seahawks fall to the #6 seed.

 

6.) Minnesota Vikings or Philadelphia Eagles

If Minnesota beats Chicago, the Vikings earn a Wildcard Bid, and would be the #5 seed if Seattle loses and the #6 seed if Seattle wins.

If Minnesota loses, then if Philadelphia beats Washington, the Eagles will earn the Wildcard bid and #6 seed, and the Vikings would be eliminated.

If both Minnesota and Philadelphia lose, then the Vikings sneak in as the #6 seed.

In the rare event that Minnesota ties Chicago, the Vikings would still be the #6 seed at 8-6-2, even if Philadelphia wins to get to 9-7.

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Selections for December 22-28 Bowls and NFL Week 16

The Land Sharps’ results from last week cannot be published yet, because all five have action on games being played today.

We will note that to date, the favorite has won every bowl game, something that is totally opposite of last year’s bowl season.  Not that it will continue, but if you are a money line player, you should maybe see this as a trend that maybe this year the Line originators in Nevada did a better job than last year, when over half of the games were won outright by the underdog.

Here are this week’s Land Sharp Picks for bowl games beginning, Saturday, December 22 through Friday, December 28.

 

1.) Cal Gal Tiffany

Hawaii  Pk vs.  Louisiana Tech

Washington St. -3 vs.  Iowa State

Georgia Tech  -5 vs.  Minnesota

 

2.) Stewed Meat

Troy +2 vs. Buffalo

Boise State  -2 vs. Boston College

Army -5 vs.  Houston

 

3.) Buckeye Michelle

California -1 vs. TCU

Houston +5 vs. Army

Miami (Fla.)  -3 vs.  Wisconsin

 

4.) Dean615

TCU +1 vs California

Miami (Fla.)  -3 vs.  Wisconsin

Duke +4.5 vs. Temple

 

5.) Friday Dog 13

Duke +4.5 vs. Temple

Vanderbilt -3.5 vs. Baylor

Washington St.  -3 vs. Iowa St.

 

The PiRate Ratings Picks

Our teaser plays moderated back to mediocre last week.  Let’s hope it is a bump in the road and not a new trend, because we are sticking with our teaser plays.

10-point teasers
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Tennessee	Washington	13.5	Washington
Tampa Bay	Dallas	3	Dallas
N.Y. Giants	Indianapolis	1	Indianapolis
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Philadelphia	Houston	11.5	Houston
Miami	Jacksonville	14	Jacksonville
Green Bay	N.Y. Jets	13	N.Y. Jets
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Cleveland	Cincinnati	20	Cincinnati
Detroit	Minnesota	4	Minnesota
New England	Buffalo	3.5	New England
Team	Team	Total	Pick
Tennessee	Washington	27	OVER
L.A. Chargers	Baltimore	33	OVER
Indianapolis	N.Y. Giants	36.5	OVER
Team	Team	Total	Pick
Miami	Jacksonville	48.5	UNDER
N.Y. Jets	Green Bay	36.5	OVER
Cincinnati	Cleveland	34	OVER
Team	Team	Total	Pick
Minnesota	Detroit	32	OVER
New England	Buffalo	54.5	UNDER
Atlanta	Carolina	33.5	OVER
Team	Team	Total	Pick
Chicago	San Francisco	33	OVER
L.A. Rams	Arizona	34	OVER
Pittsburgh	New Orleans	63	UNDER
13-point teaser
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Baltimore	L.A. Chargers	9	L.A. Chargers
Atlanta	Carolina	16	Carolina
L.A. Rams	Arizona	1.5	L.A. Rams
Kansas City	Seattle	16	Seattle

Notice:  The Land Sharps and the PiRate Ratings publish this information for entertainment purposes only.  None of this group actually wagers real money on their picks, and we encourage you not to do so either.

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 16: December 20-24, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Totals
Tennessee	Washington	6.9	7.5	6.8	41.5
L.A. Chargers	Baltimore	4.8	5.2	5.4	44.5
Dallas	Tampa Bay	7.2	6.8	5.7	44.5
Indianapolis	N.Y. Giants	9.0	8.5	9.4	47.5
Philadelphia	Houston	3.2	3.4	2.7	46.5
Miami	Jacksonville	-0.2	0.1	0.3	42
N.Y. Jets	Green Bay	-2.4	-3.3	-2.7	48
Cleveland	Cincinnati	4.8	4.8	5.6	47.5
Detroit	Minnesota	-1.2	-1.5	-1.6	44.5
New England	Buffalo	15.5	15.8	15.6	39.5
Carolina	Atlanta	3.5	3.5	4.0	50
San Francisco	Chicago	-6.7	-6.7	-7.7	45
Arizona	L.A. Rams	-10.5	-11.4	-10.9	47
New Orleans	Pittsburgh	8.0	7.8	8.0	50.5
Seattle	Kansas City	-0.2	-0.3	0.5	52.5
Oakland	Denver	-6.2	-6.0	-6.2	41

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	105.2	105.4	105.2	105.3	22.5	9-5
N. Y. Jets	94.9	94.4	94.5	94.6	24	4-10
Miami	94.6	94.3	94.4	94.4	23.5	7-7
Buffalo	92.7	92.7	92.6	92.6	17	5-9
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Pittsburgh	107.0	107.2	107.1	107.1	24	8-5-1
Baltimore	103.3	103.6	103.3	103.4	20.5	8-6
Cleveland	97.5	97.8	98.3	97.9	24	6-7-1
Cincinnati	95.3	95.5	95.1	95.3	23.5	6-8
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Indianapolis	103.1	102.5	103.5	103.0	25	8-6
Houston	102.3	102.4	102.9	102.5	24	10-4
Tennessee	98.7	98.8	98.6	98.7	19.5	8-6
Jacksonville	96.7	96.2	96.1	96.3	18.5	4-10
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	107.3	107.5	107.1	107.3	30	11-3
LA Chargers	105.0	105.8	105.7	105.5	24	11-3
Denver	99.8	99.7	99.7	99.7	19.5	6-8
Oakland	91.1	91.2	91.0	91.1	21.5	3-11
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Philadelphia	102.5	102.7	102.6	102.6	22.5	7-7
Dallas	100.6	100.4	100.0	100.3	19.5	8-6
N.Y. Giants	97.0	97.0	97.2	97.1	22.5	5-9
Washington	94.4	93.8	94.3	94.2	22	7-7
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Chicago	105.0	105.2	105.9	105.4	23	10-4
Minnesota	102.5	102.5	102.3	102.4	21	7-6-1
Green Bay	99.8	100.2	99.7	99.9	24	5-8-1
Detroit	98.8	98.6	98.2	98.5	23.5	5-9
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	112.5	112.5	112.6	112.5	26.5	12-2
Carolina	100.7	100.3	100.6	100.5	24	6-8
Atlanta	99.6	99.4	99.2	99.4	26	5-9
Tampa Bay	95.9	96.1	96.8	96.3	25	5-9
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	105.7	105.9	105.5	105.7	28.5	11-3
Seattle	104.1	104.2	104.7	104.3	22.5	8-6
San Francisco	95.4	95.4	95.2	95.3	22	4-10
Arizona	92.7	92.1	92.0	92.3	18.5	3-11

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

These projections are not to be confused with how the seedings would be if the playoffs started today.  They forecast the final two weeks of games.

AFC Seeding
1	L.A. Chargers
2	New England
3	Houston
4	Pittsburgh
5	Kansas City
6	Tennessee

 

NFC Seeding
1	New Orleans
2	L.A. Rams
3	Chicago
4	Dallas
5	Seattle
6	Minnesota

 

Playoff Projections

Wildcard Round

Houston over Tennessee

Pittsburgh over Kansas City

Chicago over Minnesota

Seattle over Dallas

 

Divisional Round

L.A. Chargers over Houston

New England over Pittsburgh

New Orleans over Seattle

Chicago over L.A. Rams

 

Conference Championships

L.A. Chargers over New England

New Orleans over Chicago

 

Super Bowl LIII

L.A. Chargers over New Orleans

 

What Would Happen If…

There is a chance that both the Los Angeles Rams and the Los Angeles Chargers could host their conference championship games.  There has always been a chance that the New York Jets and New York Giants could one year host their conference championship games.  In the future, once they occupy the same new colossus mega stadium, the Rams and Chargers could host their conference championship games in the same year.

Conference Championship Games are always on Sundays.  What that means, is there is maybe a 5% chance that the Rams and Chargers could end up hosting on this day.  While it would be okay having both networks in the City of Angels on the same day for separate games, once these teams share a home field (and if the world ever comes to an end and the Jets and Giants host conference championship games), it will not be possible to have doubleheaders on the same field on the same day.

Can you imagine the logistical nightmare it would cause to have the AFC Championship Game at 10 AM Pacific Time, followed by the NFC Championship at 1:30 PM Pacific Time on the same field?  First of all, it would be impossible.  Everybody in the stands would have to be escorted out of the stadium, before ticket holders for the second game could enter.  There would be about 15 to 20 minutes max for this to happen.  Like I said, this is impossible.

Next, the field itself would have to be transformed with new logos, as well as having any field damage repaired.  In the case of a game in East Rutherford, NJ, what if the weather conditions were 35 degrees with rain?  After 60 minutes of action, the next game would inherit very sloppy field conditions.  I did say impossible.

Now, what if the first game ended regulation with the game tied, and this game became a repeat of the 1971 Miami-Kansas City game at the old Municipal Stadium up on the hill in Kansas City.   What if the first game didn’t end until 2:30 PM Pacific Time?  The second game network would have to fill over an hour of time waiting for a game to end, when 99.9% of the football watching public would be tuned to the other game.  Once again, it is impossible.

I haven’t even mentioned that the teams in the second game need time to warm up on the field.  15 to 20 minutes is not enough.  They need at least an hour.  If you have to make a decision a week before to change the start times of the games, the network brass at CBS and Fox get very upset.  They cannot just make impromptu changes to their schedule a week in advance.  Only very important breaking news makes it okay to alter a TV schedule one week in advance.  The networks would say “impossible.”

However impossible it is, there is a chance that it could happen.  So what would happen if it did?  Yes, there is a contingency plan in place to cover this possibility.  If the same stadium is to host both conference championship games, one will be moved to Monday Night.  Yep, there could be a conference championship on Monday Night Football, but it would not be the regular MNF crew or network.  If it was the AFC game, it would be on CBS, and if it was the NFC game, it would be on Fox.

You might ask, has a network other than ABC or ESPN ever televised a Monday Night game?  The answer is “yes.”

It is a misnomer to believe that Monday Night Football on ABC in 1970 was the first time that NFL games were played and televised on Monday night.  Before there was MNF featuring Howard Cosell, CBS televised a handful of NFL games on Monday night during the 1960’s.  The games started at 9:30 PM Eastern Time, but because games concluded in 2 1/2 hours in those days, they were finished at Midnight.  One of the best games in this group was a 1968 game between an unbeaten Dallas team and a Green Bay Packer team coached by Phil Bengston, who was not having a rough time replacing Vince Lombardi, as the Packers were 2-3-1, but still in the race in the weak NFL Central Division.

Dallas led 10-0, and Green Bay looked more like an expansion team in the opening quarter plus.   Then, the great Bart Starr took the aging Packers on his shoulder and guided them back like it was 1966 again.  Starr threw three touchdown passes in the next quarter plus, and Green Bay took a 21-10 lead.  Starr threw another TD pass in the fourth quarter, and the Packers once again owned the Cowboys with a 28-17 win.

The American Football League also played a couple of Monday Night games in the 1960s, televised on NBC.  One notable game involved Broadway Joe Namath and the New York Jets playing host to the Houston Oilers in a game that would put the winner in first place in the AFL East at the midway point of the season.  Namath was victimized with a pick six by Zeke Moore early in the game, and he was somewhat of a disappointment that night with additional interceptions, but he also completed multiple long bomb passes to speedster Don Maynard, and the Jets pulled out the victory thanks to Jim Turner kicking four field goals, a couple from near midfield (goalposts were on the goalline then and not on the end line like today).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Selections for December 15-21 Bowls and NFL Week 15

The Return of the Land Sharps

After taking a week off to regroup, our five Land Sharps are ready to return to their hopefully winning ways after ending the season on a sour note.  As bowl season begins, Cal Gal Tiffany has opened a commanding lead in return on investment, maintaining a healthy double digit percentage profit that has been rather consistent for the last several weeks.  Tiffany admits that she knows more about numbers than football strategy, so maybe we can learn something from her.  She likes underdogs, and she likes numbers that are a half-point higher than typical game outcomes.  In other words, she has played a lot of 3 1/2, 7 1/2, 10 1/2, 14 1/2, and 17 1/2 point underdogs this year.  Tiffy believes the books know what they are doing in setting the lines, and there is no way she can outsmart them by trying to figure out which team is better or worse than the line.  She goes simply by the numbers, and it has helped her take a large lead in our little contest.

Stewed Meat is in second place, but Stewed has been playing the B-team of selections this year, because Stewed plays other picks for real and does well enough to make it a full-time profession in Nevada.

Buckeye Michelle is very unhappy.  She believes Ohio State is the only team that can beat Alabama, and her Buckeyes will not get that chance.  She also is unhappy, because she was in first place at the start of November and now has a record just above .500 with no profit.  Michelle and Tiffany are friendly rivals who have known each other for 10 years, and Tiffy has given Michie the business in recent weeks.  Now to make you more unhappy–these two ladies are what you would call “smokin’ hot” and unfortunately,  for all but two of the male gender, are taken.  The funny thing is their guys are not really into football, as they follow the Cleveland Indians and Oakland Athletics and nothing else.  It’s the two ladies that occupy their woman caves to watch their games.

Dean615 was in the lead for a few weeks, but Dean says that a heavy November schedule made it hard to find time to study.  Dean says that he has had ample time to study the bowls.  Dean is the ex-football player who played in three bowl games and knows what it is like and believes he knows which teams are there to play and which just want to collect their bling packages and start their off seasons.

Friday Dog 13 is the renegade of our Land Sharps.  He has played a lot more favorites than underdogs, and it worked until No Fave November.  The Autumn winds raided his bank account, and sent him into the red at the wrong time of the year.  Friday Dog has had extracurricular issues this Autumn and also has not had a ton of time to devote to the lines as of late, but he should be able to study the bowls with more time.  You will see his theme in his first set of picks.  He is a fan of Mid-America.

And what about the PiRates themselves?  We have been contrarians to the Land Sharps.  When the Land Sharps began the season hot and profitable, the PiRates were sinking like rocks.  Then, after we noticed that our NFL teaser picks kept winning consistently, we began to add more teaser selections, and the last 5 weeks have been somewhat profitable.  Hopefully, this isn’t the kiss of death talking about it and including more of these selections.

Let’s start with the Land Sharps and their picks for the first week of bowl games.  All five made three selections.  Four of the five took the same team, and three of the five took another team, so take this for what you believe it is worth.  Also, a majority of the picks were on the underdogs.

#1) Cal Gal Tiffany

Season: 40-30-0 57.1%

Return on Investment: 10.0%

Georgia Southern -1 1/2 vs. Eastern Michigan

Western Michigan +12 1/2 vs. BYU

Tulane -3 1/2 vs. Louisiana

 

#2) Stewed Meat

Season: 38-32-3  54.3%

Return on Investment: 3.8%

North Texas +8 vs. Utah St.

Middle Tennessee +7 1/2 vs. Appalachian St.

Western Michigan +12 1/2 vs. BYU

 

#3) Buckeye Michelle

Season: 33-30-1  52.4%

Return on Investment: 0.0%

San Diego St. +3 vs. Ohio U

Tulane -3 1/2 vs. Louisiana

Western Michigan +12 1/2 vs. BYU

 

#4) Dean615

Season: 31-29-2  51.7%

Return on Investment: -1.5%

South Florida +2 1/2 vs. Marshall

Tulane -3 1/2 vs. Louisiana

Western Michigan +12 1/2 vs. BYU

 

#5) Friday Dog 13

Season: 36-35-1  50.7%

Return on Investment: -3.5%

Northern Illinois +2 1/2 vs. UAB

Toledo -5 1/2 vs. Florida International

Ohio U -2 1/2 vs. San Diego St.

 

The PiRate Rating Picks

For the bowl season, we have been experimenting with playing the underdogs with money line selections.  It is our hypothesis that if one plays the same amount on every bowl game by taking the underdog and the best money line odds you can get, that it could be very profitable.  Since we play with imaginary currency in an imaginary bank account, it does not hurt to play $100 on every bowl game by taking the underdog and finding the best odds.  If we lose every game, we are out $0, and if it wins, and returns a profit, then maybe the public will have knowledge for the future.  Therefore, you will see us picking the underdog to win every bowl game (not playoffs) this year and shopping for the best odds.

Here are the selections for the first week of games.

Favorite	Underdog	Moneyline	Pick
Tulane	Louisiana	+155	Louisiana
Utah St.	North Texas	+275	North Texas
Fresno St.	Arizona St.	+167	Arizona St.
Georgia Southern	Eastern Michigan	+120	Eastern Michigan
Appalachian St.	Middle Tennessee	+235	Middle Tennessee
UAB	Northern Illinois	+125	Northern Illinois
Ohio U	San Diego St.	+135	San Diego St.
Marshall	South Florida	+125	South Florida
Toledo	Florida Int’l.	+195	Florida Int’l.
BYU	Western Michigan	+400	Western Michigan

NFL Teaser Picks to date:  26-12  68.4%

NFL	10-point Teasers
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Chicago	Green Bay	17	Green Bay
Minnesota	Miami	17.5	Miami
Baltimore	Tampa Bay	19.5	Tampa Bay
Team	Team	Total	Pick
Kansas City	L.A. Chargers	43	Over
Chicago	Green Bay	35	Over
Minnesota	Miami	34.5	Over

 

NFL	13-point Teasers
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Detroit	Buffalo	15.5	Buffalo
Tampa Bay	Baltimore	5	Baltimore
Atlanta	Arizona	23	Arizona
Cincinnati	Oakland	16	Oakland
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
San Francisco	Seattle	8.5	Seattle
New England	Pittsburgh	14.5	Pittsburgh
Philadelphia	L.A. Rams	4	L.A. Rams
Tennessee	N.Y. Giants	15.5	N.Y. Giants
Team	Team	Total	Pick
Houston	N.Y. Jets	28	Over
Cleveland	Denver	32.5	Over
Buffalo	Detroit	25	Over
Baltimore	Tampa Bay	60	Under
Team	Team	Total	Pick
Oakland	Cincinnati	33	Over
N.Y. Giants	Tennessee	30.5	Over
Washington	Jacksonville	49	Under
Indianapolis	Dallas	34	Over
Team	Team	Total	Pick
Seattle	San Francisco	57.5	Under
L.A. Rams	Philadelphia	40.5	Over
Arizona	Atlanta	31	Over
New Orleans	Carolina	65	Under

Remember that all of our selections on this site are strictly for entertainment purposes only.  We do not wager actual currency or coinage on these games.  We are purely a group of math statistics lovers that also love and played sports.  Please do not wager real money based only on what we publish here.

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Selections for December 6-10, 2018

The Land Sharps are taking a week off this week, since they play only college games, and there is just one game.  They will return for the bowls and playoffs.

In the meantime, the PiRate Ratings will go it alone and select our teaser choices for you to look at but not touch.  In other words, please do not wager real currency on what we issue here, as this is for entertainment purposes only.  While, our NFL picks have been on fire now for about a month, this does not mean they won’t stink it up so bad that they need to be sprayed with poopouri.

COLLEGE
13-Point Teaser	4-Game Parlays	@12-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Army	Navy	20	Navy
Navy	Army	6	Army
Army	Navy	27	OVER
Army	Navy	53	UNDER

 

N F L

10-Point Teasers	3-Game Parlays	@11-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Tennessee	Jacksonville	15.5	Jacksonville
Baltimore	Kansas City	3.5	Kansas City
Indianapolis	Houston	5	Houston
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Green Bay	Atlanta	15	Atlanta
New England	Miami	17.5	Miami
Cleveland	Carolina	9	Carolina
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Oakland	Pittsburgh	Pk	Pittsburgh
Chicago	L.A. Rams	7	L.A. Rams
Minnesota	Seattle	7	Seattle
Team	Team	Total	Pick
Kansas City	Baltimore	41	OVER
Houston	Indianapolis	59.5	UNDER
N.Y. Giants	Washington	31	OVER
Team	Team	Total	Pick
New Orleans	Tampa Bay	45.5	OVER
Carolina	Cleveland	37	OVER
Arizona	Detroit	30.5	OVER
13-Point Teaser	4 Game parlay	@12-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Washington	N.Y. Giants	9.5	N.Y. Giants
San Francisco	Denver	9.5	Denver
L.A. Chargers	Cincinnati	1	L.A. Chargers
Detroit	Arizona	16	Arizona