The first part of the PiRate Ratings NFL updates every year is to grade the NFL Draft. Years ago, I reverse engineered the system I have used ever since to assign each team a score between 0.0 and 5.0.
Without boring everybody with a lengthy explanation for how I come to a draft score for each team, the basics are:
1. I use 8 different pre-season Draft experts’ grading of every player that was drafted along with any unrestricted free agents that signed and carry a grade high enough to matter.
2. In each round, there is a different top score, with the higher the round, the more potential score is available. If a team drafts a top player in the first round, it counts more than if a team drafts the best possible remaining player in the 4th round, but if a team drafts a 1st round talent that falls to the 2nd round, they can score a bonus.
3. If a team doesn’t have a pick in a round, they are not really penalized, but if a team trades down in the draft for more picks than they had, they get a bonus. The reason for this is that 1/3 of all picks in the higher rounds never pan out. The best draft option is to pile up total picks. In other words, the Mike Ditka trade of his entire draft class to Washington for the rights to draft Ricky Williams counts as the worst grade in the history of the NFL Draft. The San Francisco 49ers had the best ever draft in 1986, and they traded down 6 times, eventually drafting eight starters on their Super Bowl Championship teams in 1988 and 1989.
4. The hand-picked draft gurus were selected by looking at what they had predicted in prior years and how accurate their picks turned out to be. If, for example, they gave a 4th round selection glaring grades and panned a 1st round pick as a mistake, and they were shown in later years to be correct, they made my grade to trust as a guru (a lot more in-depth than this one example).
The top grade, 5.0, is not necessarily a perfect draft, just one that has the best chance to pay off in the first year. A grade of 0.0 is the least chance to pay off in the first year. Down the road, these draft classes may be great or terrible, but since the ratings are only constructed to begin the current season, future potential is of no consequence.
Here, in order of best to worst, are the draft grades for each team.
That Virus Changes Everything–Injuries Not So Much!
We had a nice variety of games ready to feature here this week, but then that little tiny virus cancelled two of the games we were ready to play and greatly altered a third, making it unplayable. You can obviously determine the three college games we refer to in the above sentence.
A crucial injury in the NFL might have made you think we would avoid a certain team like the plague, yet we are not only making a selection involving said team, we are making a selection in that team’s favor.
You will also notice that we are playing opposite sides of the same college game this week, going with the underdog against a spread that our ratings indicate is too high, while picking the favorite to win in a money line parlay. It is not a mistake; this was a deliberate choice to hopefully hit an unorthodox middle.
Before you get all gung ho about these selections, remember that we do this only for mathematical (nerdy) fun. We never actually wager real money on these selections, and we highly advise you to refrain from using these selections as advice. This statement is repeated every week, but like people that still text while driving, a group of you will immediately place wagers on these selections to try to receive the same parlay odds.
Before revealing today’s selections, let’s do a little review of last week’s selections and how we are performing year to date with our imaginary bank roll that never runs out of fresh imaginary $100 bills.
Last week, we issued 12 selections and won half of them. It was a profitable week, because we were 3-0 on money line parlays with payouts of +295, +141, and +166.60. At $100 imaginary per wager, we invested $1,200 in nonexistent currency and received $1,470.01 for a proftiable return on investment of 22.5%.
For the year, we are now up 7.94% in the profit column. But, this by no means indicates that we are going to stay in the black for the remainder of the season.
Additionally, the way our selections won last week was 180° different from the way we won in prior weeks. It was straight wagering that was unusually accurate heading into last week’s selections, while the exotic wagers were in the toilet.
Last week, the straight wagers lost a little, while the exotics won big. So, we cannot guess which style of wagers will do better in any one week. Thus, if you choose to pick just one or two of our selections, you are really taking a double gamble with your investment.
Just as this edition was about to publish, word has come out on the Twitterverse that the Atlanta Falcons have just reported a rash of new positives, and their facilities have been closed. We have a selection involving the Falcons, so by the time you see this, the Vegas lines may have changed.
And, we offer our condolences to the family of former NFL player Fred Dean, who passed away as a result of the virus. Let’s hope the biggest loser is the virus, as it is beaten like Georgia Tech over Cumberland.
Here are our selections for this week. Stay well!
Date:
10/15-10/19
College Wagers
Selection
Opponent
Line
1. Houston
BYU
+5.5
2. Kentucky
Tennessee
+6
3. Florida Intl.
Charlotte
Cancelled
4. Money Line +143.55
Must Win
Opponent
Odds
SMU
Tulane
Tennessee
Kentucky
+143.55
Notre Dame
Louisville
5. Money Line +152.83
Must Win
Opponent
Odds
Texas A&M
Miss. St.
Middle Tenn.
North Texas
+152.83
N. Carolina
Florida St.
NFL Wagers
Selection
Opponent
Line
6. Denver
New England
+10
7. Dallas
Arizona
+2
8. 10-point Teaser Parlay
Team
Team
Odds
N.Y. Giants
Washington
O32.5
Philadelphia
Baltimore
O37.5
Miami
N.Y. Jets
O37
9. Money Line Parlay +142.97
Must Win
Opponent
Odds
Minnesota
Atlanta
Pittsburgh
Cleveland
+142.97
10. Money Line Parlay +110.23
Must Win
Opponent
Odds
Baltimore
Philadelphia
Indianapolis
Cincinnati
+110.23
Miami
N.Y. Jets
Comments Off on PiRate Picks for October 15-19, 2020
This should be the year where we all see clearly. 2020 isn’t 2010 or 2005 when we could all be quite far-sighted, but after this year, we all become nearsighted. We will be blind in another 70 years!
If that looks like nonsense to you, then you should consider that what follows makes the above look like rocket science.
Once again, we are issuing picks against the spread as entertainment purposes only. These are not our more scientific Davey19 picks that enjoyed an experimental winning season. So, please do not wager real money based on what you see below.
Because games are now down to a minimum, we do not have any great teaser or money line parlays through Sunday’s playoff games. We are going with straight margin selections. Enjoy, but in order to enjoy, you should keep your wallet in your pockets.
College Bowl Games
Favorite
Underdog
Spread
Pick
Virginia Tech
Kentucky
2.5
Va. Tech
Arizona St.
Florida St.
4
Florida St.
Wyoming
Georgia St.
7.5
Georgia St.
Utah
Texas
7.5
Texas
Wisconsin
Oregon
3
Oregon
Tennessee
Indiana
2
Tennessee
NFL Wildcard Playoffs
Favorite
Underdog
Spread
Pick
Houston
Buffalo
3
Buffalo
New England
Tennessee
4.5
New England
Seattle
Philadelphia
2.5
Philadelphia
Comments Off on PiRate Ratings Picks For December 31-January 5, 2019
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