The Pi-Rate Ratings

February 5, 2022

PiRate Ratings For Super Bowl 56

PiRate Ratings Margins

PiRate Rating: Rams by 7.6

Mean Rating: Rams by 7.7

Bias Rating: Rams by 8.0

Total: 51 points

PiRate Ratings Special: Super Bowl Simulated Via PiRate Pro Football Game

PiRate Pro Football is a football game with 26 offensive and 15 defensive plays, the most in any tabletop game on the market. Each team is graded for each play, and we include the most diverse solitaire system for one person to play against a tough solitaire opponent. You can buy the 1960’s-1970’s best of the American Football League and the best of the National Football League team sets at the link below.

We made special team sets for the 2021-22 Rams and Bengals and then played a game using the AI solitaire system for both teams. Here is the result of that game.

Final Score: Rams 27 Bengals 17

Score By Quarters

Box Score

Total FD2418
FD by Rush44
FD by Pass1812
FD by Penalty22
3rd down eff.9-166-17
4th down eff.0-01-2
Total Net Yards377298
Off. Plays6759
Rushing Yds7195
Passing Yds306215
Passes Att3936
Passes Comp2422
Sack Yds Lost012
Avg. Punt43.744.6
Punt Returns01
Avg. Punt Ret.012
Intercept. Ret.1-00-0
Fum Ret.00
Return Yds.012
Kick Ret.1-172-36
Pen Yds.4030
Field Goal Att.21
Field Goal Made21
Time of Poss.32:4527:15

June 4, 2020

PiRate Ratings Going Ahead As Planned

Hello to all of our patrons and occasional readers.  The PiRate Ratings are currently going under the preseason compilation for both College and Pro football as if nothing has changed from the past.

Should the season be postponed or other major changes are made, we will do our best to adjust the ratings based on whatever presents itself.

Additionally, we will not participate in any political commentary or make any comments other than mathematical and historical counts.  That means that even though 2020 is an election year, we have chosen to stay out entirely from issuing any electoral vote count predictions and all the House and Senate forecasts.

We want this to be an escape for you to visit to get away from all other outside forces.  We are strongly considering adding a potential tabletop football game like we did several years ago with a “best of” tournament between some of the greatest college football teams of all time, similar to how we did this as a replacement to the NCAA Basketball Tournament, won by the 1968 UCLA Bruins.

Additionally, we are also considering putting a package together where people can send a small payment here, and we will send you the PDF files to print the “best of franchise” NFL and AFL teams between 1960 and 1979 with instructions on how you can cheaply print and have your own tabletop football strategy game to play.  We currently do not have a zip file creator on the PiRate ship.

One more heads up.  WordPress has begun to phase out the original editor, and they may force a new editor to be used, one that is not friendly to pasting tables from our spreadsheet.  If for any reason we find it impossible to paste our spreadsheet tables into this site, we will create a new site and leave the link to that site as the final posting here. Let’s hope we can get through the season without having to make that change.

If all goes according to the norm, expect to see the preseason PiRate College Football Ratings around August 20 and the NFL Football Ratings within hours after the teams make their final cuts the first Saturday in September.


The Captain

January 23, 2019

PiRate Ratings Super Bowl LIII Preview

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:27 am

Super Bowl 53 Preview

NFC Champion: Los Angeles Rams 15-3-0

AFC Champion: New England Patriots 13-5-0

Date: Sunday, February 3, 2019

Kickoff Time: Approximately 6:30 PM Eastern Standard Time



Phone: CBS Sports App

TV Announcing Crew

Jim Nantz–Play-by-play

Tony Romo–Booth Analysis

Sideline Reporter–Tracy Wolfson

Sideline Reporter–Evan Washburn


This is the best Super Bowl TV talent in this generation, and the equal of Curt Gowdy, Al DeRogatis, and Kyle Rote in Super Bowl III on NBC in January of 1969 50 years ago.


Radio Coverage: Westwood One Radio Sports

Top Radio Market Affiliates

City Radio # Radio Station
Atlanta 92.9 FM WZGC
Austin 104.9 FM WTXX
Baltimore 105.7 FM WJZ
Boston 850 AM WEEI
Charlotte 610 AM WFNZ
Chicago 670 AM WSCR
Cincinnati 1360 AM WSAI
Cleveland 92.3 FM WKRK
Columbus 1460 AM WBNS
Dallas 105.3 FM KRLD
Denver 1600 AM KEPN
Detroit 1270 AM WXYT
Houston 610 AM KILT
Indianapolis 1260 AM WNDE
Kansas City 810 AM WHB
Las Vegas 1100 AM KWWN
Los Angeles 550 AM KLAC
Miami 790 AM WAXY
Minneapolis 100.3 FM KFXN
Nashville 104.5 FM WGFX
New York 660 AM WFAN
Orlando 580 AM WDBO
Philadelphia 1210 AM WPHT
Phoenix 910 AM KGME
Pittsburgh 93.7 FM KDKA
Portland 750 AM KXTG
Sacramento 1140 AM KHTK
San Antonio 760 AM KTKR
San Bernardino 1350 AM KPWK
San Diego 97.3 FM KWFN
San Francisco Bay Area 95.7 FM WGMZ
Seattle 950 AM KJR
St. Louis 101.1 FM WXOS
Tampa 820 AM WWBA
Virginia Beach 94.1 FM WVSP
Washington, DC 106.7 FM WJFK

 and Sirius XM Channel 88

Radio Broadcast Talent

Kevin Harlan–Play by Play

Kurt Warner–Booth Analysis

Others–Mike Holmgren, Ed Werder, Tony Boselli, Scott Graham, and Jim Gray

Nevada Lines

Line as of 12 Noon EST Wednesday, January 23

New England by 2 1/2

Total 57 1/2

Money Line

New England -135

Los Angeles +115


PiRate Ratings Spreads

Pirate: Los Angeles by 1.4

Mean: Los Angeles by 1.4

Bias: Los Angeles by 1.1

Total: 52


Computer Simulations

Data Used: Advanced Metric Statistics for both teams adjusted to strengths of schedules and then using a random number generator of potential outcomes, 100 simulations were run.  We feel that 10,000 simulations artificially lowers the variance, which was already quite low.

100 Sims

Los Angeles Wins: 56

New England Wins: 44

Average Score (Rounded) Los Angeles 30  New England 27

Simulations going over the total: 52

Simulations going under the total: 48

Standard Deviation on the Margin: 3.34

Standard Deviation on the Total: 5.22

Outlier Win for LA: Rams 41  Patriots 24

Outlier Win for NE: Patriots 31  Rams 16

This marks the final football publication for the PiRate Ratings until sometime in the Summer, when we will be in the process of updating the college football ratings for the 2019 season.  Thank You to all that patronize this site.  If you haven’t checked out our other ratings, we cover college basketball with new publications on Monday and Friday until the end of the regular season and then daily through Selection Sunday.  Our annual “Bracketnomics 505” comes out the Monday evening after Selection Sunday, and it has been our most read feature through the years.  We offer all this free to you, because we are a group of math geeks that were once athletes in the dark ages.

Our goal is to supply you with fun information and not to encourage you to wager money using our data for your research.  None of the contributors here at this site ever wager money on our recommendations.  We understand that there are professionals that come to this site, and more than one of you has told us that there is something we put out that does influence how you wager.  We hope for your sake, it doesn’t send you to the Poor House, because  we don’t have any more room here.


February 1, 2017

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Super Bowl LI: February 1, 2017

We present our Super Bowl LI preview a few days later than originally planned, but we decided that 100 computer simulations were not enough.  Over the last several days, we have visited the big bits and bytes to run numerous simulations on the big game.  We stopped at 10,000, the going rate among other simulators out there.

After running the first 100, we recorded the results to see how much different the results from 10,000 simulations.  What we found was that one metric definitely and consistently came through in both 100 and 10,000 sims that could be used by somebody unconcerned with losing a lot of their investment.  See below for the shocking revelation concerning this game and the Las Vegas Books.

Let’s get on with the data.

Super Bowl LI

Date: Sunday, February 5, 2017

Time: 6:30 PM EST

Place: Houston, TX

TV: Fox Sports

Radio: Westwood One

Find Your Affiliate Here


AFC Champion: New England Patriots 16-2-0

NFC Champion: Atlanta Falcons 13-5-0


Las Vegas Info

Current Line (2/1/17 @ 10AM EST): New England by 3

Totals Line: 59

Money Line: New England -155, Atlanta +135


PiRate Ratings

PiRate: New England by 2.4

Mean: New England by 0.6

Bias: New England by 3.2

Average: New England by 2

Total: 60


10,000 Simulations

The winner when we simulated 100 times was the same as the winner when we simulated 10,000 times.  The average margin minimally changed between 100 and 10,000 sims.

The standard deviation went down a little with 10,000 sims, but that was to be expected with so many more sims.

What surprised us was the definite deviation between the Total Points and the Vegas Total, and it is so wide that we felt compelled to highlight this even though we BEG you not to bet on this game using our data and cannot stress enough that we bet $0 on sporting events.


Wins: New England 53.9%  Atlanta 46.1%

Percentage going to overtime: 0.87%

Average Score: New England 24.3  Atlanta 23.2  ***47.5 points***

St Deviation: 7.3 (almost 2 deviations difference in Vegas Total)

Outlier A: New England 34  Atlanta 7

Outlier B: Atlanta 29  New England 10

Percentage of outcomes under 59 total points: 87.78%

If you haven’t caught on, the computer simulator says that about 7 out of every 8 times these two teams would face off in Houston, the total score would be less than 59 points.

This disagrees with our own PiRate Rating expected total of 60, but our totals have been totally pitiful this year.  I would trust this simulator over our own ratings.


So, we would make the UNDER 59 our best advice for this game, but once again we beg, urge, and plead with you not to wager money using the information we supply to you.  We are in this just for fun.

February 6, 2016

PiRate Ratings Super Bowl Preview

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:19 am

We have done something we’ve never done before for Super Bowl 50.  Normally, when we run computer simulations, we run them 100 times.  It take about .1 second to run it 100 times.  Last night, after inputting the statistical data and weather forecast, we ran the simulation 10,000 times.  It took much longer, almost .3 second.  We then ran it again subbing Brock Osweiler for Peyton Manning, simulating a Manning injury or inability to perform as acceptable levels.  To be fair, we then ran it again with Cam Newton leaving the game in the second quarter due to injury, just to see how the game was affected.

What we found out is rather obvious:  Newton is much more valuable to the Panthers than Manning is to the Broncos.  With Manning leaving the game at halftime and Osweiler entering in the second half, Denver’s percentage of winning the game fell by just 2.7%.  With Newton leaving the game and unable to play in the second half, Carolina scored an average of just 4.2 points in 10,000 simulations.  Derek Anderson, in relief, could not lead the Panthers to Paydirt against the Bronco defense.


Let’s take a look at the numbers.


Date: Sunday, February 7, 2016

Time: 3:30 PM Pacific Standard Time (6:30 PM Eastern)

Location: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California

Santa Clara is about 40 miles Southeast of Downtown San Francisco in the greater San Jose area.

TV Network: CBS

Announce Team: Jim Nantz, Phil Simms, Tracy Wolfson, and Evan Washburn

Also Available:, live streaming for Verizon Wireless customers with Super Bowl app, Xbox One, Apple TV, Amazon Fire TV, Android TV, Chromecast, and Roku).

Canada: CTV

United Kingdom: BBC2  and on radio on BBC Radio 5 Live

Australia: Seven Network and Foxtel

Radio: Westwood One 

Announce Team: Kevin Harlan, Boomer Esiason, Dan Fouts, James Lofton, and Mark Malone.



AFC Champion–Denver Broncos

NFC Champion–Carolina Panthers


Las Vegas

Las Vegas Line: Carolina by 5 1/2

Totals: Over or Under 44 1/2

Money Line: Carolina -230, Denver +190


Weather Forecast: 69 degrees at kickoff with nominal winds and humidity–near perfect weather!


PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Carolina by 7.0

Mean: Carolina by 7.7

Bias: Carolina by 9.0

Average: Carolina by 7.9

Average Score: Carolina 26 Denver 18


10,000 Computer Simulations 

Carolina wins 63.47%

Denver wins 36.53%

Average Score: Carolina 24.3  Denver 17.1

Standard Deviation: 9.42

Outlier A: Carolina 41  Denver 13

Outlier B: Denver 30  Carolina 7


Simulation 2–Manning out for second half

Carolina wins 65.93%

Denver wins 34.07%

Average Score: Carolina 25.0  Denver 15.9


Simulation 3–Newton injured late in Q2

Carolina wins 43.7%

Denver wins 56.3%

Average Score: Denver 20.6  Carolina 16.2


January 15, 2016

Computer Simulations: 2016 NFL Playoffs–Divisional Round

Weather will not be as much of a factor this week as it was last week with sub-zero temperatures.  There is a chance for a wet field in the Carolina-Seattle game on Sunday.

The computer simulation was conducted earlier today, and the results are in.


All Games will be broadcast on the radio over the Westwood One Radio Network.  To find your local affiliate, follow the link below:


Saturday, January 16, 2016

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots

Kickoff: 4:35 PM EST


Las Vegas Line: New England by 4 1/2 to 5

Totals: 42 to 42 1/2

Money Line Avg.: New England -230  Kansas City +190


PiRate Ratings

PiRate: New England by 2.2

Mean: New England by 0.6

Bias: New England by 0.1


100 Simulations

New England wins: 50

Kansas City wins: 50

Average score: New England 24.8  Kansas City 24.5

St. Deviation: 11.4

Outlier NE win: 42-14

Outlier KC win: 29-6


Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals

Kickoff: 8:15 PM EST


Las Vegas Line: Arizona by 7

Totals: 49 1/2 to 50

Money Line Avg.: Arizona -320  Green Bay +260


PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Arizona by 7.7

Mean: Arizona by 7.9

Bias: Arizona by 8.7


100 Simulations

Arizona wins: 73

Green Bay wins: 27

Average Score: Arizona 32.1  Green Bay 23.8

St Deviation: 8.4

Outlier Ari win: 45-16

Outlier GB win: 35-23


Sunday, January 17, 2016

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers

Kickoff: 1:05 PM EST

TV: Fox

Las Vegas Line: Carolina by 1 1/2 to 2

Totals: 44

Money Line Avg.: Carolina -125  Seattle +105


PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Carolina by 0.4

Mean: Carolina by 1.2

Bias: Carolina by 1.9


100 Simulations

Carolina wins 43

Seattle wins 57

Average Score: Seattle 19.9  Carolina 18.8

St Deviation: 7.2

Outlier Car win: 26-10

Outlier Sea win: 24-3


Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos

Kickoff: 4:40 PM EST


Las Vegas Line: Denver by 7 to 7 1/2

Totals: 38 1/2 to 39

Money Line Avg.: Denver -340  Pittsburgh +285


PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Pittsburgh by 0.8

Mean: Pittsburgh by 1.5

Bias: Pittsburgh by 1.2


100 Simulations

Denver wins: 55

Pittsburgh wins: 45

Average Score: Denver 20.0  Pittsburgh 18.6

St Deviation: 8.4

Outlier Den win: 31-10

Outlier Pit win: 24-9

January 8, 2016

Computer Simulations: 2016 NFL Playoffs–Wildcard Round

Earlier today, we placed all the pertinent statistics, the weather forecasts, and the home field advantages into the good old computer simulator, and it spit out 100 simulations of each NFL game for the Wildcard Weekend.  When we saw the results, we had to make sure we had not made any mistakes in the input, because the output for the four games was very close to identical.


After we realized there had been no mistakes, we were left with the thought that all four games are about equal in competitive value.  There were four clear favorites, but the average scores and standard deviations of the four games tells us that these games should all be exciting.  Weather could play a factor in Minneapolis and in Cincinnati.

All Games will be broadcast on the radio over the Westwood One Radio Network.  To find your local affiliate, follow the link below:

Saturday, January 9, 2016

Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) at Houston Texans (9-7)

Kickoff: 4:35 PM EST


Las Vegas Line: Kansas City by 3 to 3 1/2

Totals: 40 to 41

Money Line Avg: Kansas City -170  Houston +150


PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Kansas City by 1.7

Mean: Kansas City by 0.9

Bias: Kansas City by 0.5


100 Simulations

Kansas City Wins: 60

Houston Wins: 40

Avg. Score: Kansas City 21.0  Houston 17.3

St Deviation: 8.3

Outlier KC win: 34-10

Outlier Hou win: 27-6


Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (12-4)

Kickoff: 8:15 PM EST


Las Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 2 1/2 to 3

Totals: 45 1/2 to 46 1/2

Money Line Avg. Pittsburgh -150  Cincinnati +130


PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Cincinnati by 2.0

Mean: Cincinnati by 2.3

Bias: Cincinnati by 2.6


100 Simulations

Pittsburgh wins: 59

Cincinnati wins: 41

Avg. Score: Pittsburgh 24.5  Cincinnati 22.6

St. Deviation: 8.7

Outlier Pit win: 37-14

Outlier Cin win: 28-9


Sunday, January 10, 2016

Seattle Seahawks (10-6) at Minnesota Vikings (11-5)

Kickoff: 1:05 PM EST


Las Vegas Line: Seattle by 4 1/2 to 5 1/2

Totals: 39 1/2 to 40

Money Line Avg.: Seattle -230  Minnesota +190


PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Seattle by 3.0

Mean: Seattle by 2.5

Bias: Seattle by 0.4


100 Simulations

Seattle wins 61

Minnesota wins 39

Avg. Score: Seattle 24.7  Minnesota 21.7

St. Deviation: 8.8

Outlier Sea win: 41-14

Outlier Min win: 28-12


Green Bay Packers (10-6) at Washington Redskins (9-7)

Kickoff: 4:40 PM EST

TV: Fox

Las Vegas Line: Pick to Washington by 1

Totals: 45 to 45 1/2

Money Line Avg.: Washington -110  Green Bay -110


PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Green Bay by 1.1

Mean: Washington by 0.2

Bias: Washington by 1.2


100 Simulations

Green Bay wins: 61

Washington wins: 39

Avg. Score: Green Bay 25.9  Washington 22.9

St Deviation: 7.3

Outlier GB win: 34-17

Outlier Was win: 27-16

December 31, 2015

Computer Simulations–Simper Bowl IX & Today’s College Playoffs

We are combining our own computer simulation championship game from our annual project with the actual College Football Playoff games today into one entity.


Simper Bowl IX

This year, we decided to expand our own computer college playoff to 24 teams just like in the Football Championship Series.  The prior rounds have been played, and you can search for the results on this site.  The Championship Game today pits #3 seed Oklahoma against #16 seed Ole Miss.

Oklahoma received a first round bye as the #3 seed.  The Sooners defeated Michigan 47-28 in the Sweet 16; Ohio State 26-20 in the Elite 8; and Stanford 31-20 in the Semifinal Round.

Ole Miss had to play in the opening round as the #16 seed.  The Rebels defeated Houston 39-24 in that round to advance to the Sweet 16.  Then, Ole Miss defeated top-ranked Clemson 35-20 in the Sweet 16; North Carolina 27-16 in the Elite 8; and Michigan State 27-17 in the Semifinals.


Here are the championship results.

Simper Bowl IX 1 2 3 4 F FD Rush Pass Total
#3 Oklahoma 10 6 7 7 30 22 166 252 418
#16 Ole Miss 13 7 0 14 34 27 249 302 551

Congratulations to the Ole Miss Rebels, winner of Simper Bowl IX.


The College Football Playoffs 2015-16–The Real Larry Culpepper Playoffs

This is what you have been waiting for.  Yesterday, we input all the stats and schedule strengths for the four teams in today’s playoffs.  We even included the recent suspensions of Clemson players in the loss of talent.


We then simulated both games 100 times coming up with the number of wins, the average score, the standard deviations of the games, and the outlier scores in both directions.


Orange Bowl

Location: Sun Life Stadium, Miami, FL

Time: 4:00 PM Eastern Time

TV: ESPN, Brad Nessler, Todd Blackledge, and Holly Rowe

Radio: ESPN, Bill Rosinksi, David Norrie, Joe Schad

Teams: Clemson (13-0) vs. Oklahoma (11-1)

100 Sims

Clemson wins: 39

Oklahoma wins: 61

Average Score: Oklahoma 30.7  Clemson 22.1

Standard Deviation: 8.6

Outlier A: Oklahoma 51  Clemson  16

Outlier B: Clemson 37  Oklahoma 14


Cotton Bowl

Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX

Time: 8:00 PM Eastern Time

TV: ESPN, Chris Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit, Heather Cox, and Tom Rinaldi

Radio: ESPN, Brad Sham, Danny Kannell, and Ian Fitzsimmons

Teams: Alabama (12-1) vs. Michigan St. (12-1)

100 Sims

Alabama wins: 53

Michigan St. wins: 47

Average Score: Alabama 20.5  Michigan St. 18.8

Standard Deviation: 5.7

Outlier A: Alabama 31  Michigan St. 6

Outlier B: Michigan St. 27  Alabama 16

December 26, 2015

PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated College Playoffs–Semifinal Round

The Semifinal Round of the 2015-16 PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated Playoffs have been played, and the Final Four has now been whittled down to two.


In case you are wondering why Michigan St., Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Stanford are the Final Four teams, this season’s simulation used the Football Championship Series format of 24 teams.  Michigan St. defeated Baylor and Iowa to make it to the semifinals.  Ole Miss defeated Houston, Clemson, and North Carolina, as the Rebels were the #16 seed and had to win a play-in game to make it to the Sweet 16.  Oklahoma defeated Michigan and Ohio St., while Stanford got here by knocking off Florida St. and Alabama.


Here are the Final Four Semifinal Results.

Semifinal Round 1 2 3 4 F FD Rush Pass Total
#16 Ole Miss 3 14 7 3 27 18 129 268 397
#5 Michigan St. 0 7 10 0 17 17 161 158 327
#3 Oklahoma 0 3 21 7 31 22 154 247 401
#7 Stanford 7 6 0 7 20 17 169 158 327

This sets up Simper Bowl IX at Arlington, Texas, next week.  16th-seed Ole Miss will play 3rd-seed Oklahoma.


Fear not ye of computer simulation tremors.  Next week, we will run our annual 100 sims on the playoff games–the real ones where that sugar-addicted dude Larry Culpepper will be lurking around somewhere.



December 19, 2015

PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated College Playoffs–Quarterfinal Round

The first two rounds of the Computer Simulated NCAA Playoffs have been previously posted here.  Today’s Quarterfinal Round featured three teams from the Big Ten, two from the SEC, and one each from the ACC, Big 12, and Pac-12.

If you have not been following our 2015-16 tournament, we are using the same 24-team format currently in use by the Football Championship Division.  Here are the contests for the football version of the Elite 8.

Quarterfinal Round   1 2 3 4 F FD Rush Pass Total
#16 Ole Miss at 10 14 0 3 27 24 163 242 405
#8 North Carolina   7 6 3 0 16 17 145 189 334
#7 Stanford at 7 0 3 7 17 12 130 169 299
#2 Alabama   3 3 7 0 13 17 202 116 318
#6 Ohio St. at 0 3 14 3 20 20 221 106 327
#3 Oklahoma   5 7 14 0 26 22 137 303 440
#5 Michigan St. at 3 3 7 10 23 19 129 222 351
#4 Iowa   0 14 0 7 21 16 172 133 305

The Final Four is now set.  In next week’s semifinal round, it will be:

#16 Ole Miss vs. #5 Michigan St. at the Orange Bowl

#7 Stanford vs. #3 Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl

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