PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 8: October 25-29, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Total
Houston	Miami	5.8	6.3	5.8	46
Jacksonville (n)	Philadelphia	-2.0	-2.4	-1.7	41
Pittsburgh	Cleveland	12.8	12.7	11.8	46
Kansas City	Denver	11.9	12.5	12.9	48.5
Chicago	N.Y. Jets	7.8	7.8	8.3	47.5
N.Y. Giants	Washington	-1.2	-0.7	-1.7	44
Detroit	Seattle	1.6	1.9	1.6	49.5
Cincinnati	Tampa Bay	6.1	6.6	5.4	47.5
Carolina	Baltimore	-0.3	-1.6	-0.7	43.5
Oakland	Indianapolis	-0.6	0.9	-0.7	46
Arizona	San Francisco	4.1	2.8	3.8	43.5
L.A. Rams	Green Bay	11.7	11.8	12.4	51
Minnesota	New Orleans	-2.8	-2.6	-3.1	48.5
Buffalo	New England	-15.2	-15.7	-15.7	38.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	105.3	105.7	105.5	105.5	23	5-2
N. Y. Jets	97.6	97.2	97.6	97.5	24.5	3-4
Miami	96.7	96.2	96.6	96.5	22	4-3
Buffalo	92.1	92.1	91.8	92.0	15.5	2-5
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Pittsburgh	105.9	106.0	105.6	105.8	23	3-2-1
Baltimore	104.7	105.3	105.0	105.0	21	4-3
Cincinnati	98.4	98.8	98.4	98.5	23	4-3
Cleveland	95.0	95.3	95.8	95.4	23	2-4-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Jacksonville	100.0	99.8	100.0	99.9	19	3-4
Houston	99.5	99.5	99.4	99.4	24	4-3
Tennessee	97.1	97.2	96.6	97.0	19	3-4
Indianapolis	97.1	95.7	96.8	96.5	25	2-5
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	107.8	108.2	108.2	108.1	27	6-1
LA Chargers	102.2	102.9	102.4	102.5	23.5	5-2
Denver	98.9	98.6	98.3	98.6	21.5	3-4
Oakland	93.4	93.6	93.2	93.4	21	1-5
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Philadelphia	102.0	102.1	101.7	101.9	22	3-4
Dallas	100.5	100.4	99.9	100.3	19.5	3-4
Washington	99.3	98.5	99.6	99.1	22.5	4-2
N.Y. Giants	95.5	95.3	95.4	95.4	21.5	1-6
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Chicago	102.4	102.0	102.9	102.4	23	3-3
Minnesota	102.0	102.2	101.9	102.0	22	4-2-1
Detroit	100.7	100.9	100.9	100.8	27	3-3
Green Bay	99.4	100.1	99.0	99.5	24.5	3-2-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	107.8	107.8	108.0	107.9	26.5	5-1
Carolina	101.9	101.2	101.8	101.6	22.5	4-2
Atlanta	101.3	101.1	101.0	101.1	25.5	3-4
Tampa Bay	95.3	95.2	96.0	95.5	24.5	3-3
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	108.1	108.9	108.4	108.5	26.5	7-0
Seattle	102.1	102.0	102.4	102.2	22.5	3-3
Arizona	95.8	95.0	95.5	95.4	19.5	1-6
San Francisco	94.7	95.1	94.7	94.8	24	1-6

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1	Kansas City
2	New England
3	Pittsburgh
4	Houston
5	L.A. Chargers
6	Baltimore

 

NFC Seeding
1	L.A. Rams
2	New Orleans
3	Minnesota
4	Washington
5	Carolina
6	Detroit

 

Wildcard Round

Pittsburgh over Baltimore

L.A. Chargers over Houston

Minnesota over Detroit

Carolina over Washington

 

Divisional Round

Kansas City over L.A. Chargers

Pittsburgh over New England

L.A. Rams over Carolina

New Orleans over Minnesota

 

Conference Championship

Kansas City over Pittsburgh

L.A. Rams over New Orleans

 

Super Bowl 53

L.A. Rams over Kansas City

 

 

 

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PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 3: September 20-24, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Total
Cleveland	N.Y. Jets	0.1	0.3	0.6	45
Philadelphia	Indianapolis	12.3	14.4	11.9	45
Carolina	Cincinnati	5.2	4.1	5.2	43
Jacksonville	Tennessee	10.4	10.1	11.2	42.5
Atlanta	New Orleans	3.5	3.5	3.7	45
Baltimore	Denver	5.9	6.9	6.6	44.5
Houston	N.Y. Giants	5.4	5.4	5.1	43
Miami	Oakland	7.8	6.8	8.2	42.5
Washington	Green Bay	2.1	-0.2	2.2	45
Minnesota	Buffalo	16.0	16.3	16.2	38
Kansas City	San Francisco	9.5	9.4	9.9	49
L.A. Rams	L.A. Chargers	6.7	7.3	7.3	47
Arizona	Chicago	-1.6	-2.3	-2.8	37.5
Seattle	Dallas	3.7	3.2	3.7	41.5
Detroit	New England	-3.3	-4.3	-3.2	47
Tampa Bay	Pittsburgh	-5.2	-5.3	-3.9	45.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	104.4	105.1	104.2	104.6	21	1-1
Miami	99.2	98.6	99.6	99.1	21.5	2-0
N. Y. Jets	98.7	98.5	98.9	98.7	23	1-1
Buffalo	91.4	91.3	91.0	91.2	18	0-2
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Pittsburgh	105.1	105.0	104.3	104.8	22.5	0-1-1
Baltimore	101.2	101.9	101.3	101.5	23	1-1
Cincinnati	99.7	100.3	99.9	100.0	21.5	2-0
Cleveland	95.8	95.8	96.5	96.0	22	0-1-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Jacksonville	104.3	104.2	104.7	104.4	21.5	2-0
Houston	99.2	99.2	98.9	99.1	24	0-2
Tennessee	96.9	97.0	96.5	96.8	21	1-1
Indianapolis	95.0	93.1	94.8	94.3	22	1-1
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	105.3	105.7	105.7	105.6	25.5	2-0
LA Chargers	101.1	101.9	101.4	101.5	22	1-1
Denver	98.3	98.0	97.7	98.0	21.5	2-0
Oakland	94.8	95.3	94.9	95.0	21	0-2
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Philadelphia	102.2	102.5	101.8	102.2	23	1-1
Dallas	99.6	99.6	99.3	99.5	19.5	1-1
Washington	99.6	98.4	99.4	99.1	21.5	1-1
N.Y. Giants	96.8	96.7	96.8	96.8	19	0-2
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	104.4	104.5	104.2	104.4	20	1-0-1
Green Bay	100.5	101.6	100.2	100.7	23.5	1-0-1
Chicago	99.3	99.0	100.0	99.4	18.5	1-1
Detroit	98.1	97.9	98.0	98.0	26	0-2
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Atlanta	104.4	104.3	104.6	104.4	21.5	1-1
New Orleans	103.4	103.3	103.4	103.4	23.5	1-1
Carolina	101.9	101.4	102.1	101.8	21.5	1-1
Tampa Bay	97.9	97.7	98.4	98.0	23	2-0
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	107.9	109.2	108.7	108.6	25	2-0
Seattle	100.3	99.8	100.0	100.0	22	0-2
San Francisco	98.8	99.3	98.8	99.0	23.5	1-1
Arizona	94.7	93.7	94.2	94.2	19	0-2

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1	Kansas City
2	Jacksonville
3	New England
4	Cincinnati
5	Miami
6	L.A. Chargers

 

NFC Seeding
1	L.A. Rams
2	Minnesota
3	Philadelphia
4	Tampa Bay
5	Green Bay
6	Atlanta

 

Wildcard Round

L.A. Chargers over New England

Miami over Cincinnati

Philadelphia over Atlanta

Green Bay over Tampa Bay

 

Divisional Round

L.A. Chargers over Kansas City

Jacksonville over Miami

L.A. Rams over Green Bay

Minnesota over Philadelphia

 

Conference Championship

Jacksonville over L.A. Chargers

L.A. Rams over Minnesota

 

Super Bowl 53

L.A. Rams over Jacksonville

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 2: September 13-17, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Week Number:	2
Date of Games:	September 13-17
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Total
Cincinnati	Baltimore	-0.7	-1.0	-1.0	43.5
Washington	Indianapolis	10.9	12.3	11.5	44.5
Atlanta	Carolina	4.7	4.9	4.5	42
Green Bay	Minnesota	-1.1	0.1	-1.4	42
Buffalo	L.A. Chargers	-5.5	-6.3	-5.7	39
Tennessee	Houston	0.2	0.4	0.1	46
Pittsburgh	Kansas City	4.4	4.2	3.4	46.5
N.Y. Jets	Miami	5.1	5.8	5.2	45
Tampa Bay	Philadelphia	-2.3	-3.4	-1.3	46
New Orleans	Cleveland	12.7	12.8	12.4	46.5
L.A. Rams	Arizona	11.9	13.9	12.9	45
San Francisco	Detroit	3.7	4.4	3.8	49
Jacksonville	New England	0.8	-0.3	1.0	41.5
Denver	Oakland	6.8	6.0	6.1	42.5
Dallas	N.Y. Giants	5.3	5.4	5.0	39.5
Chicago	Seattle	1.2	1.1	1.9	40.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	105.3	106.1	105.3	105.6	20	1-0
N. Y. Jets	99.8	99.8	100.2	99.9	23.5	1-0
Miami	97.8	97.0	98.0	97.6	21.5	1-0
Buffalo	92.2	92.1	92.0	92.1	18	0-1
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Pittsburgh	105.4	105.4	104.7	105.2	22	0-0-1
Baltimore	102.3	103.1	102.6	102.7	23	1-0
Cincinnati	98.6	99.1	98.6	98.8	20.5	1-0
Cleveland	95.0	94.9	95.5	95.1	22	0-0-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Jacksonville	103.1	102.9	103.3	103.1	21.5	1-0
Houston	99.2	99.2	98.9	99.1	24.5	0-1
Tennessee	96.9	97.0	96.5	96.8	21.5	0-1
Indianapolis	93.6	91.4	93.1	92.7	22.5	0-1
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	104.0	104.3	104.3	104.2	24.5	1-0
LA Chargers	100.6	101.4	100.7	100.9	21	0-1
Denver	98.6	98.3	98.0	98.3	21.5	1-0
Oakland	94.8	95.3	94.9	95.0	21	0-1
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Philadelphia	102.7	103.3	102.3	102.8	23	1-0
Washington	101.5	100.6	101.6	101.2	22	1-0
Dallas	99.5	99.5	99.2	99.4	20	0-1
N.Y. Giants	97.2	97.1	97.2	97.2	19.5	0-1
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	104.5	104.5	104.4	104.5	19.5	1-0
Green Bay	100.4	101.6	100.0	100.6	22.5	1-0
Chicago	99.0	98.6	99.6	99.1	18.5	0-1
Detroit	98.1	97.9	98.0	98.0	25.5	0-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	104.7	104.7	104.9	104.8	24.5	0-1
Atlanta	104.2	104.1	104.4	104.2	21	0-1
Carolina	102.1	101.6	102.3	102.0	21	1-0
Tampa Bay	97.4	96.9	97.9	97.4	23	1-0
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	105.7	106.8	106.4	106.3	25.5	1-0
Seattle	100.9	100.5	100.7	100.7	22	0-1
San Francisco	98.8	99.3	98.8	99.0	23.5	0-1
Arizona	96.3	95.5	95.9	95.9	19.5	0-1

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1	New England
2	Kansas City
3	Jacksonville
4	Baltimore
5	Pittsburgh
6	New York Jets
NFC Seeding
1	L.A. Rams
2	Minnesota
3	Philadelphia
4	Carolina
5	Green Bay
6	Washington

Wildcard Round

N.Y. Jets over Jacksonville

Baltimore over Pittsburgh

Philadelphia over Washington

Green Bay over Carolina

Divisional Round

New England over N.Y. Jets

Baltimore over Kansas City

L.A. Rams over Green Bay

Minnesota over Philadelphia

Conference Championship

New England over Baltimore

L.A. Rams over Minnesota

Super Bowl 53

L.A. Rams over New England

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Conference Tournament Update–February 28, 2018

Conference Tournament Results From Last Night

Big South Conference Tournament
First Round–February 27
Longwood   68	High Point   55
Charleston Southern   68	Presbyterian   51

Big South Bracket Update

Quarterfinals–March 1
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
1:00 PM	#2 Radford	#10 Longwood	ESPN3
3:30 PM	#3 Winthrop	#6 Gardner-Webb	ESPN3
7:00 PM	#1 UNC-Asheville	#8 Charleston Southern	ESPN3
9:30 PM	#4 Campbell	#5 Liberty	ESPN3
Semifinals–March 2
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:00 PM	Radford or Longwood	Winthrop/G-Webb	ESPN3
8:30 PM	UNCA/Chas. Southern	Campbell or Liberty	ESPN3
Championship–March 4
Time	Home	Visitors	TV
1:00 PM	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	ESPN

 

Patriot League Tournament
First Round–February 27
Lafayette   93	American   86
Loyola (MD)   82	Army   79

Patriot League Bracket Update

Quarterfinals–March 1
Time	Home	Visitors	TV
7:00 PM	#1 Bucknell	#8 Loyola (MD)	Stadium
7:00 PM	#4 Lehigh	#5 Boston U	Stadium
7:00 PM	#2 Colgate	#7 Lafayette	Stadium
7:00 PM	#3 Navy	#6 Holy Cross	Stadium
Semifinals–March 4
Time	Home	Visitors	TV
12/2	Bucknell or Loyola	Lehigh or Boston U	CBSSN
12/2	Colgate or Lafayette	Navy or Holy Cross	CBSSN
Championship–March 7
Time	Home	Visitors	TV
7:30 PM			CBSSN

Conference Tournaments in Action Today

Big Ten Conference Tournament
New York City
All Times EST
First Round–February 28
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
5:30 PM	#12 Iowa	#13 Illinois	Big Ten
7:45 PM	#11 Minnesota	#14 Rutgers	Big Ten
Second Round–March 1
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	#8 Maryland	#9 Wisconsin	Big Ten
2:15 PM	#5 Michigan	Iowa or Illinois	Big Ten
6:30 PM	#7 Penn St.	#10 Northwestern	Big Ten
8:45 PM	#6 Indiana	Minn. or Rutgers	Big Ten
Quarterfinals–March 2
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	#1 Michigan St.	Mary or Wisc	Big Ten
2:15 PM	#4 Nebraska	Mich/Iowa/Ill	Big Ten
6:30 PM	#2 Ohio St.	PSU or N’Western	Big Ten
8:45 PM	#3 Purdue	Ind/Minn/Rutg	Big Ten
Semifinals–March 3
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
2:00 PM	MSU/Mary/Wisc	Neb/Mich/Iowa/Ill	CBS
4:30 PM	OSU/Purd/NW	Purd/Ind/Minn/Rutg	CBS
Championship–March 4
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
4:30 PM			CBS

The Big Ten Tournament was moved up a week so that it could be held at Madison Square Garden in New York.  The Big East has dibs on next week.  You won’t find one Big Ten coach happy with this decision, and Commissioner Jim Delany has stated that the Big Ten will not squeeze its schedule again to hold its tournament a week earlier than normal.

Two of the four coaches participating tonight have been reported to be on hot seats with their schools, but we tend to believe they will both be back next year despite poor seasons this year.  Minnesota’s Richard Pitino has had to deal with a suspension of his top player and injuries to multiple contributing players, so that the Gophers have not been able to practice 5 on 5 during conference tournament action. UM lost nine games in a row before winning on senior night over Iowa, and the Gophers enter tournament play below .500 at 15-16 after being ranked as high as 12th in the AP poll in November.

Speaking of Iowa, some media outlets report that Hawkeye coach Fran McCaffery is on the hot seat and could lose his job once Iowa has been eliminated from this tournament.  McCaffery received a lucrative extension last year, and we do not think the university would ante up such a large buyout.

As for this tournament, two teams are desperate to win multiple games to get into the NCAA Tournament.  Nebraska (13-5/22-9) is not even on the list of first 6 teams out.  The Cornhuskers must get to the Semifinals of this tournament just to get into the conversation, and they probably need to make it to the Championship Game to have any chance to make the field.

Penn State (9-9/19-12) has no chance other than to win the tournament.  In some years, a .500 record in the Big Ten would have been enough to get a team in the field, but with the new quadrant system in place and the fact that conference won-loss records no longer factor into the selection process, the Nittany Lions have no chance other than to win the automatic bid.

Michigan State has won 12 games in a row and looks like the clear favorite, but the top seed has not been all that successful in this tournament.  With the schedule bunched together, the four teams with double byes (MSU, Ohio St., Purdue, and Nebraska) have huge advantages.  A Nebraska-Michigan State semifinal game would be can’t miss for sure, with the Spartans vying for a #1 seed, and the Cornhuskers faced with a must-win to get in dilemma.  Michigan is the defending tournament champions.  The Wolverines won from back in the pack last year.

Northeast Conference Tournament
All Games at Higher Seed
Top 8 Teams Qualify and Tournament Re-seeds after Quarterfinals
All Times EST
Quarterfinals–February 28
Time	Home Team	Visitors	TV
7:00 PM	#1 Wagner	#8 Central Connecticut	NEC *
7:00 PM	#2 Mount St. Mary’s	#7 Robert Morris	NEC *
7:00 PM	#3 St. Francis (PA)	#6 Fairleigh-Dickinson	NEC *
7:00 PM	#4 Long Island	#5 St. Francis (Bkn)	NEC *
* NEC Front Row at http://necfrontrow.com/
Semifinals–March 3
Time	Home Team	Visitors	TV
12:00 PM	Highest Remaining	Lowest Remaining	ESPN3
2:00 PM	2nd Highest	3rd Highest	ESPN3
Championship–March 6
Time	Home Team	Visitors	TV
7:00 PM	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	ESPN2

This tournament is a toss-up with seven teams capable of winning it all.  The fact that the higher seeds host the games, and the tournament re-seeds after the quarterfinals really helps the top two seeds, but the next five teams are strong enough to win on the road.

Third-seeded St. Francis (Pa.) enters the tournament riding a five-game winning streak, but the Red Flash were wiped off the floor by top-seed Wagner twice this year.  Fourth-seed Long Island and Sixth-seed Fairleigh Dickinson match up quite well with Wagner and both beat the Seahawks on their home floors, while losing close games at Wagner.

 

Ohio Valley Conference Tournament
Evansville, IN
Top 8 Teams Qualify, Southeast Missouri ineligible due to low APR Scores
All Times CST
First Round–February 28
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:30 PM	#5 Tennessee Tech	#8 SIU-Edwardsville	OVC
9:00 PM	#6 Tennessee St.	#7 Eastern Illinois	OVC
OVC Network at http://www.ovcdigitalnetwork.com/watch
Quarterfinals–March 1
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:30 PM	#4 Jacksonville St.	Tenn Tech or SIU-E	OVC
9:00 PM	#3 Austin Peay	TSU or EIU	OVC
Semifinals–March 2
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
7:00 PM	#1 Murray St.	JSU/TTU/SIU-E	ESPNU
9:30 PM	#2 Belmont	APSU/TSU/EIU	ESPNU
Championship–March 3
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
7:00 PM			ESPN2

The OVC Tournament moves away from Nashville this year to Evansville, and with it goes Belmont’s home town advantage (the tournament was played downtown at the old Municpal Auditorium and not on Belmont’s campus).

The move up the road 125 miles should help top-seed Murray State, and in this league the top two seeds receive staggering advantages, getting byes to the semifinal round.

We’d be surprised if Belmont and Murray didn’t meet in the championship, but Austin Peay and Jacksonville State will have a lot to say about that.  We do not see any of the other four teams having much chance to make it all the way to the championship.  The OVC will be the first team to place a team into the field of 68.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Conference Championship Games: January 21, 2018

All times given are Eastern Standard

Sunday, January 21, 2018

3:05 PM on CBS

Jacksonville Jaguars (11-6-0) at New England Patriots (14-3-0)

PiRate: New England by 7.6

Mean: New England by 8.0

Bias: New England by 7.4

Total: 44

Estimated Realistic Score: New England 27  Jacksonville 17 

 

6:40 PM on Fox

Minnesota Vikings (14-3-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (14-3-0)

PiRate: Minnesota by 2.0

Mean: Minnesota by 1.2

Bias:  Minnesota by 2.1

Total: 37

Estimated Realistic Score: Minnesota 20  Philadelphia 17

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Divisional Playoff Round: January 13-14, 2018

All times given are Eastern Standard

Saturday, January 13, 2018

4:35 PM on NBC

Atlanta Falcons (11-6-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (13-3-0)

PiRate: Philadelphia by 5.2

Mean: Philadelphia by 5.6

Bias: Philadelphia by 5.1

Total: 46

Estimated Realistic Score: Philadelphia 26  Atlanta 20

 

8:15 PM on CBS

Tennessee Titans (10-7-0) at New England Patriots (13-3-0)

PiRate: New England by 11.5

Mean: New England by  11.5

Bias: New England by 11.7

Total: 44

Estimated Realistic Score: New England 28  Tennessee 16

 

Sunday, January 14, 2018

1:05 PM on CBS

Jacksonville Jaguars (11-6-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3-0)

PiRate: Pittsburgh by 6.1

Mean: Pittsburgh by 6.4

Bias: Pittsburgh by 5.9

Total: 43

Estimated Realistic Score: Pittsburgh 24 Jacksonville 17

 

4:40 PM on Fox Sports

New Orleans Saints (12-5-0) at Minnesota Vikings (13-3-0)

PiRate: Minnesota by 4.7

Mean: Minnesota by 4.8

Bias: Minnesota by 4.8

Total: 46

Estimated Realistic Score: Minnesota 24  New Orleans 20

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 16: December 23-25, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Total
Baltimore	Indianapolis	16.5	16.3	17.2	44
Green Bay	Minnesota	-6.3	-5.3	-7.6	39
Cincinnati	Detroit	-3.7	-3.3	-4.0	43
N. Y. Jets	LA Chargers	-6.6	-6.6	-6.8	41
Tennessee	LA Rams	-6.9	-6.0	-8.1	47
Chicago	Cleveland	7.9	7.3	11.0	34
Carolina	Tampa Bay	8.8	8.0	9.2	49
New Orleans	Atlanta	6.0	5.7	6.4	55
Washington	Denver	4.5	4.7	4.3	43
Kansas City	Miami	9.8	9.7	10.5	44
New England	Buffalo	14.2	13.9	14.2	42
San Francisco	Jacksonville	-7.3	-7.4	-7.5	45
Arizona	N. Y. Giants	5.6	5.1	5.8	41
Dallas	Seattle	4.1	3.5	4.8	45
Houston	Pittsburgh	-10.2	-10.1	-11.0	45
Philadelphia	Oakland	12.9	11.0	14.8	47

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	108.0	108.1	108.1	108.0	22	11-3
Buffalo	96.3	96.6	96.4	96.4	20	8-6
Miami	96.1	96.2	95.6	96.0	21	6-8
N. Y. Jets	94.3	94.0	94.4	94.3	18	5-9
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	105.9	106.1	106.1	106.0	22	8-6
Pittsburgh	105.6	105.7	105.8	105.7	23	11-3
Cincinnati	94.2	95.0	93.8	94.4	16	5-9
Cleveland	91.0	91.7	88.1	90.2	17	0-14
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Jacksonville	104.9	104.7	105.1	104.9	22	10-4
Tennessee	97.6	97.8	97.2	97.5	22	8-6
Houston	92.4	92.6	91.8	92.3	22	4-10
Indianapolis	91.9	92.3	91.3	91.8	22	3-11
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Chargers	104.5	104.1	104.7	104.4	23	7-7
Kansas City	102.8	102.9	103.2	103.0	23	8-6
Oakland	97.5	98.1	96.7	97.4	22	6-8
Denver	96.1	95.9	96.0	96.0	19	5-9
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Philadelphia	106.9	105.6	108.0	106.8	25	12-2
Dallas	102.9	102.4	102.9	102.8	24	8-6
Washington	97.5	97.7	97.3	97.5	24	6-8
N.Y. Giants	93.0	93.5	92.7	93.1	20	2-12
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	106.9	106.5	107.6	107.0	18	11-3
Detroit	100.5	100.8	100.3	100.6	27	8-6
Green Bay	98.7	99.2	98.0	98.6	21	7-7
Chicago	96.4	96.5	96.5	96.5	17	4-10
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	107.2	106.6	107.7	107.2	29	10-4
Atlanta	104.1	103.9	104.3	104.1	26	9-5
Carolina	103.5	102.7	104.0	103.4	27	10-4
Tampa Bay	97.2	97.2	97.4	97.3	22	4-10
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	107.5	106.8	108.3	107.5	25	10-4
Seattle	101.8	102.0	101.1	101.6	21	8-6
Arizona	95.7	95.6	95.5	95.6	21	6-8
San Francisco	94.5	94.3	94.6	94.5	23	4-10

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1	New England
2	Pittsburgh
3	Jacksonville
4	Kansas City
5	Baltimore
6	LA Chargers
NFC Seeding
1	Philadelphia
2	Minnesota
3	LA Rams
4	New Orleans
5	Carolina
6	Atlanta

Wildcard Round

Jacksonville over LA Chargers

Baltimore over Kansas City

LA Rams over Atlanta

New Orleans over Carolina

Divisional Round

New England over Baltimore

Pittsburgh over Jacksonville

New Orleans over Philadelphia

Minnesota over LA Rams

Conference Championship

Pittsburgh over New England

Minnesota over New Orleans

Super Bowl 52

Pittsburgh over Minnesota

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 15: December 14-18, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Total
Indianapolis	Denver	0.5	0.8	0.3	41
Detroit	Chicago	6.2	6.5	5.7	45
Kansas City	LA Chargers	-1.7	-0.8	-2.0	46
N. Y. Giants	Philadelphia	-12.6	-10.6	-14.6	43
Carolina	Green Bay	7.1	5.8	8.3	48
Minnesota	Cincinnati	12.9	11.7	14.0	35
Buffalo	Miami	2.4	2.8	2.7	41
Jacksonville	Houston	11.1	10.8	11.8	44
New Orleans	N. Y. Jets	16.2	16.0	16.6	47
Washington	Arizona	5.4	5.5	5.3	47
Cleveland	Baltimore	-12.0	-11.7	-12.2	39
Seattle	LA Rams	2.4	3.0	1.4	46
Pittsburgh	New England	1.1	1.0	1.1	45
San Francisco	Tennessee	0.2	0.0	0.7	45
Oakland	Dallas	-1.9	-0.9	-2.7	47
Tampa Bay	Atlanta	-4.5	-4.2	-4.4	48

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	107.8	107.9	107.9	107.8	22	10-3
Miami	96.5	96.5	96.1	96.4	21	6-7
Buffalo	95.9	96.3	95.9	96.0	20	7-6
N. Y. Jets	94.1	93.8	94.2	94.1	18	5-8
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Pittsburgh	105.8	105.9	106.0	105.9	23	11-2
Baltimore	105.7	106.0	105.8	105.8	22	7-6
Cincinnati	95.6	96.4	95.2	95.8	17	5-8
Cleveland	91.2	91.8	91.1	91.3	17	0-13
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Jacksonville	102.7	102.6	102.8	102.7	22	9-4
Tennessee	97.7	97.8	97.3	97.6	22	8-5
Houston	94.6	94.7	94.1	94.5	22	4-9
Indianapolis	93.0	93.3	92.5	92.9	22	3-10
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Chargers	105.8	105.1	106.2	105.7	23	7-6
Kansas City	101.0	101.4	101.2	101.2	23	7-6
Oakland	97.5	98.1	96.7	97.4	23	6-7
Denver	95.0	94.9	94.8	94.9	19	4-9
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Philadelphia	107.4	106.0	108.8	107.4	25	11-2
Dallas	102.4	101.9	102.4	102.3	24	7-6
Washington	97.5	97.7	97.3	97.5	25	5-8
N.Y. Giants	92.8	93.4	92.2	92.8	18	2-11
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	105.5	105.1	106.2	105.6	18	10-3
Detroit	100.3	100.6	100.0	100.3	27	7-6
Green Bay	99.4	99.9	98.7	99.3	21	7-6
Chicago	96.6	96.7	96.8	96.7	18	4-9
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	107.4	106.8	107.9	107.4	29	9-4
Atlanta	104.1	103.9	104.3	104.1	26	8-5
Carolina	103.5	102.7	104.0	103.4	27	9-4
Tampa Bay	97.2	97.2	97.4	97.3	22	4-9
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	104.9	104.4	105.5	104.9	25	9-4
Seattle	104.4	104.4	103.9	104.2	21	8-5
Arizona	95.7	95.6	95.5	95.6	22	6-7
San Francisco	94.4	94.3	94.5	94.4	23	3-10

NFL Playoff Projections

Beginning this week, we look forward predicting the outcomes of every game and then use the NFL tiebreaker system to forecast seeds.  Prior to week 15, we use only the PiRate Ratings themselves to estimate won-loss record.

This week, we have Seattle winning a tiebreaker over the Rams for the NFC West, with the Rams getting a wildcard, and we have the Saints winning a tiebreaker over the Panthers in the NFC South, with the Panthers getting the other wildcard.

In the AFC, we still show New England getting the top seed by virtue of a road win against the Steelers.  We have the Chargers edging the Chiefs in the AFC West, but we show KC getting the last playoff spot due to a possible 4-game collapse by Tennessee.

This is rather sketchy and only one possible outcome for the season.  Obviously, by this time next week, the probabilities will be drastically reduced with many key games.

AFC Seeding
1	New England
2	Pittsburgh
3	Jacksonville
4	LA Chargers
5	Baltimore
6	Kansas City
NFC Seeding
1	Philadelphia
2	Minnesota
3	New Orleans
4	Seattle
5	LA Rams
6	Carolina

Wildcard Round

Jacksonville over Kansas City

LA Chargers over Baltimore

New Orleans over Carolina

Seattle over LA Rams

Divisional Round

New England over LA Chargers

Jacksonville over Pittsburgh

Seattle over Philadelphia

Minnesota over New Orleans

Conference Championship

New England over Jacksonville

Minnesota over Seattle

Super Bowl 52

New England over Minnesota

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 14: December 7-11, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Total
Atlanta	New Orleans	-1.0	-0.5	-1.4	57
Buffalo	Indianapolis	6.3	6.5	6.7	42
Carolina	Minnesota	0.1	0.0	-0.2	43
Cincinnati	Chicago	7.5	7.9	7.3	35
Cleveland	Green Bay	-4.4	-4.3	-4.0	38
Houston	San Francisco	6.9	7.2	6.7	45
Kansas City	Oakland	5.6	5.5	6.3	46
Tampa Bay	Detroit	0.4	-0.3	0.8	49
N. Y. Giants	Dallas	-3.5	-2.8	-3.7	42
Arizona	Tennessee	-0.1	0.2	0.0	46
Denver	N. Y. Jets	0.0	0.4	-0.6	40
LA Chargers	Washington	9.7	9.2	10.2	50
Jacksonville	Seattle	0.9	1.0	1.3	41
LA Rams	Philadelphia	-1.1	-0.4	-1.7	47
Pittsburgh	Baltimore	2.4	2.1	2.4	43
Miami	New England	-11.9	-11.6	-12.7	43

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	109.6	109.5	109.9	109.6	22	10-2
Buffalo	96.1	96.5	96.1	96.2	20	6-6
N. Y. Jets	96.2	95.8	96.4	96.2	20	5-7
Miami	94.7	94.9	94.1	94.6	21	5-7
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	105.7	106.0	105.8	105.8	21	7-5
Pittsburgh	105.5	105.6	105.7	105.6	22	10-2
Cincinnati	98.8	99.4	98.6	99.0	17	5-7
Cleveland	91.0	91.7	90.9	91.2	17	0-12
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Jacksonville	102.1	102.1	102.1	102.1	21	8-4
Tennessee	98.1	98.0	97.8	98.0	23	8-4
Houston	96.6	96.7	96.3	96.5	22	4-8
Indianapolis	92.8	93.1	92.3	92.7	22	3-9
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Chargers	104.8	104.2	105.1	104.7	23	6-6
Kansas City	100.5	101.0	100.6	100.7	23	6-6
Oakland	98.0	98.5	97.3	97.9	23	6-6
Denver	93.2	93.2	92.9	93.1	20	3-9
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Philadelphia	109.2	107.9	110.5	109.2	24	10-2
Dallas	100.6	100.3	100.4	100.5	24	6-6
Washington	98.0	98.1	97.9	98.0	27	5-7
N.Y. Giants	94.6	95.0	94.2	94.6	18	2-10
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	105.8	105.3	106.6	105.9	17	10-2
Detroit	100.2	100.7	99.9	100.3	27	6-6
Green Bay	98.0	98.4	97.3	97.9	21	6-6
Chicago	93.8	94.1	93.8	93.9	18	3-9
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	107.7	107.0	108.2	107.6	30	9-3
Atlanta	103.6	103.5	103.8	103.6	27	7-5
Carolina	103.0	102.3	103.4	102.9	26	8-4
Tampa Bay	97.6	97.4	97.8	97.6	22	4-8
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	105.1	104.5	105.8	105.1	23	9-3
Seattle	104.7	104.6	104.3	104.5	20	8-4
Arizona	95.1	95.2	94.8	95.0	23	5-7
San Francisco	92.7	92.6	92.6	92.6	23	2-10

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1	New England
2	Pittsburgh
3	Jacksonville
4	LA Chargers
5	Tennessee
6	Baltimore
NFC Seeding
1	Minnesota
2	Philadelphia
3	Los Angeles
4	New Orleans
5	Seattle
6	Carolina

Wildcard Round

Baltimore over Jacksonville

LA Chargers over Tennessee

LA Rams over Carolina

New Orleans over Seattle

Divisional Round

New England over Baltimore

LA Chargers over Pittsburgh

Minnesota over New Orleans

Philadelphia over LA Rams

Conference Championship

New England over LA Chargers

Minnesota over Philadelphia

Super Bowl 52

New England over Minnesota

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 13: November 30-December 4, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Total
Dallas	Washington	2.8	3.0	2.4	51
Baltimore	Detroit	5.3	5.4	5.3	45
Chicago	San Francisco	6.2	6.4	6.5	43
Atlanta	Minnesota	2.5	2.7	2.1	47
Buffalo	New England	-8.9	-8.5	-9.0	45
Miami	Denver	-0.4	-0.2	-0.6	41
Tennessee	Houston	3.5	3.5	3.3	45
Jacksonville	Indianapolis	10.5	10.4	10.8	43
Green Bay	Tampa Bay	3.6	4.2	3.0	43
N. Y. Jets	Kansas City	-3.0	-3.9	-2.8	41
New Orleans	Carolina	7.0	7.2	6.8	56
LA Chargers	Cleveland	17.3	16.1	17.7	42
Arizona	LA Rams	-5.7	-4.9	-6.6	46
Oakland	N. Y. Giants	6.1	6.5	5.7	41
Seattle	Philadelphia	-5.1	-3.3	-6.8	46
Cincinnati	Pittsburgh	-4.8	-4.3	-5.1	39

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	108.7	108.7	108.9	108.7	23	9-2
Buffalo	96.8	97.1	96.9	96.9	22	6-5
N. Y. Jets	95.5	95.1	95.7	95.5	20	4-7
Miami	92.4	92.6	91.8	92.3	21	4-7
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Pittsburgh	105.8	105.9	106.0	105.9	22	9-2
Baltimore	104.1	104.6	104.0	104.2	19	6-5
Cincinnati	98.5	99.1	98.3	98.7	17	5-6
Cleveland	90.6	91.3	90.5	90.8	19	0-11
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Jacksonville	101.3	101.4	101.2	101.3	21	7-4
Tennessee	97.6	97.6	97.2	97.5	23	7-4
Houston	97.1	97.1	96.9	97.0	22	4-7
Indianapolis	93.8	94.0	93.4	93.7	22	3-8
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Chargers	104.9	104.3	105.2	104.8	23	5-6
Kansas City	101.5	102.0	101.6	101.7	21	6-5
Oakland	97.9	98.5	97.1	97.8	23	5-6
Denver	95.8	95.8	95.5	95.7	20	3-8
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Philadelphia	111.0	109.4	112.3	110.9	25	10-1
Washington	99.5	99.4	99.6	99.5	27	5-6
Dallas	99.4	99.3	99.0	99.3	24	5-6
N.Y. Giants	94.7	95.0	94.4	94.7	18	2-9
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	104.8	104.4	105.5	104.9	18	9-2
Detroit	101.8	102.1	101.7	101.9	26	6-5
Green Bay	98.1	98.5	97.5	98.0	21	5-6
Chicago	94.6	94.8	94.7	94.7	19	3-8
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	107.2	106.6	107.6	107.1	30	8-3
Atlanta	104.3	104.1	104.6	104.3	29	7-4
Carolina	103.2	102.4	103.7	103.1	26	8-3
Tampa Bay	97.5	97.3	97.6	97.5	22	4-7
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	104.4	103.8	105.1	104.4	23	8-3
Seattle	102.9	103.1	102.5	102.8	21	7-4
Arizona	95.8	95.9	95.5	95.7	23	5-6
San Francisco	91.9	91.9	91.7	91.8	24	1-10

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding		AFC
1	New England	1
2	Pittsburgh	2
3	Jacksonville	3
4	LA Chargers	4
5	Baltimore	5
6	Tennessee	6
NFC Seeding		NFC
1	Philadelphia	1
2	Minnesota	2
3	LA Rams	3
4	New Orleans	4
5	Carolina	5
6	Seattle	6

Wildcard Round

Jacksonville over Tennessee

LA Chargers over Baltimore

LA Rams over Seattle

Carolina over New Orleans

Divisional Round

New England over LA Chargers

Pittsburgh over Jacksonville

Philadelphia over Carolina

LA Rams over Minnesota

Conference Championship

Pittsburgh over New England

Philadelphia over LA Rams

Super Bowl 52

Philadelphia over Pittsburgh