PiRate Ratings College Basketball For February 26, 2020

Wednesday’s Games

 

Home	Visitor	Spread
Abilene Christian	Sam Houston St.	3.8
Air Force	New Mexico	-1.4
American	Lafayette	2.6
Arkansas	Tennessee	5.5
Army	Holy Cross	11.7
Boston College	Notre Dame	-5.1
Bucknell	Colgate	-4.8
California Baptist	Utah Valley	7.7
Citadel	Mercer	-6.0
Connecticut	Central Florida	8.3
Florida	LSU	3.4
Fordham	Rhode Island	-12.8
George Washington	Richmond	-8.7
Houston Baptist	Nicholls	-8.9
Illinois St.	Bradley	-3.8
Lamar	Incarnate Word	12.9
Lehigh	Boston U	-6.0
Long Beach St.	Cal St. Northridge	0.7
Louisiana	Arkansas St.	2.0
Maine	New Hampshire	-2.8
Manhattan	Marist	6.3
Marquette	Georgetown	7.2
Massachusetts	VCU	-6.8
McNeese	Southeast Louisiana	10.0
Minnesota	Maryland	-0.2
Navy	Loyola (MD)	3.4
New Orleans	Texas A&M-CC	2.0
Northern Iowa	Evansville	18.4
Omaha	North Dakota	4.6
Penn St.	Rutgers	6.3
Pittsburgh	Syracuse	0.4
Purdue Fort Wayne	Denver	6.2
Quinnipiac	Siena	-2.8
Saint Louis	Saint Joseph’s	14.3
South Carolina	Georgia	5.8
South Florida	East Carolina	8.6
Southern Illinois	Indiana St.	0.4
St. Bonaventure	Duquesne	1.4
Stanford	Utah	9.6
Stephen F. Austin	Northwestern St.	15.6
Stony Brook	Hartford	9.7
UMass Lowell	Albany	1.9
UMBC	Binghamton	10.0
UNC Greensboro	Furman	4.0
UNLV	Boise St.	0.5
Vanderbilt	Missouri	-1.5
Villanova	St. John’s	10.4
Virginia Tech	Virginia	-0.3
VMI	Chattanooga	-2.9
Western Carolina	Samford	11.4
Wofford	East Tennessee St.	-4.0

 

Key TV Games on Wednesday Night

 

Time (EST)	Network	Home	Visitor
7:00 PM	BTN	Penn St.	Rutgers
7:00 PM	ESPN+	UNC Greensboro	Furman
8:30 PM	FS1	Marquette	Georgetown
8:30 PM	SECN	Arkansas	Tennessee
9:00 PM	BTN	Minnesota	Maryland
9:00 PM	ESPN2	Florida	LSU
10:00 PM	Pac12	Stanford	Utah

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For February 16, 2020

Sunday’s Games

 

Home	Visitor	Spread
Boise St.	San Diego St.	-6.8
Boston College	North Carolina St.	-5.0
California	Arizona St.	-5.8
Connecticut	Memphis	1.9
Drake	Evansville	9.9
East Carolina	Cincinnati	-10.6
Fordham	Duquesne	-8.2
Indiana St.	Missouri St.	5.2
Iona	Marist	7.1
Loyola (MD)	Colgate	-6.9
Maine	Albany	-3.7
Michigan	Indiana	6.3
Minnesota	Iowa	2.0
Niagara	Monmouth	-2.4
Northern Kentucky	Illinois Chicago	9.9
Omaha	Denver	9.4
Oregon	Utah	12.3
Rider	Quinnipiac	6.5
Saint Peter’s	Fairfield	6.6
Siena	Manhattan	6.4
South Dakota St.	Purdue Fort Wayne	12.4
Temple	Villanova	-6.0
Wichita St.	Tulane	15.9
Wright St.	IUPUI	17.8

 

Sunday’s Key Games *

 

Time (EST)	Network	Home	Visitor
1:00 PM	FS1	Minnesota	Iowa
1:00 PM	CBS	Michigan	Indiana
2:00 PM	ESPN3	Siena	Manhattan
4:00 PM	CBSSN	Boise St.	San Diego St.

* When we refer to these as key games, this is when both teams are fighting for a conference championship or contending for an at-large NCAA Tournament bid.

 

Coming Monday–Updated Ratings, Monday’s Games, and New Bracketology.

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For February 14, 2020

Date	2/14/2020
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Baylor	Gonzaga	Kansas	San Diego St.
2	Duke	Dayton	Louisville	Maryland
3	Seton Hall	Florida St.	West Virginia	Auburn
4	Villanova	Butler	Penn St.	Oregon
5	Kentucky	Creighton	Michigan St.	Colorado
6	Marquette	Iowa	Arizona	LSU
7	Arizona	Rutgers	Wisconsin	Michigan
8	Ohio St.	Texas Tech	Illinois	Houston
9	USC	Purdue	Rhode Island	Saint Mary’s
10	Oklahoma	Florida	Xavier	Wichita St.
11	Stanford	Indiana	Northern Iowa	Arkansas	Virginia
12	East Tennessee St.	Yale	Stephen F. Austin	Cincinnati	Arizona St.
13	Liberty	Vermont	New Mexico St.	North Texas
14	Colgate	Wright St.	Akron	Winthrop
15	Hofstra	Little Rock	Murray St.	UC-Irvine
16	South Dakota St.	Montana	Prairie View	Rider	Robert Morris	Norfolk St.

 

Bubble Contenders

 

69	VCU
70	N. Carolina St.
71	Mississippi St.
72	Utah St.
73	Georgetown
74	Richmond
75	Minnesota
76	Memphis
77	Furman
78	Notre Dame
79	Alabama
80	Tennessee

 

First Four Games

11–seeds: Arkansas vs. Virginia

12–seeds: Cincinnati vs. Arizona St.

16-seeds: Prairie View vs. Robert Morris

16-seeds: Rider vs. Norfolk St.

 

Best PiRate Rating Criteria To Win National Championship

Duke

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For February 7, 2020

Date	2/7/2020
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Baylor	Gonzaga	Kansas	San Diego St.
2	Duke	Dayton	Louisville	West Virginia
3	Seton Hall	Florida St.	Maryland	Villanova
4	Butler	Auburn	Oregon	Michigan St.
5	Penn St.	Creighton	Kentucky	Iowa
6	LSU	Colorado	Arizona	Marquette
7	Illinois	Ohio St.	Rutgers	Houston
8	Texas Tech	Wisconsin	Michigan	Wichita St.
9	BYU	Arkansas	USC	Saint Mary’s
10	Indiana	Rhode Island	Florida	Stanford
11	Xavier	Memphis	Northern Iowa	Virginia	Purdue
12	East Tennessee St.	Yale	Liberty	VCU	Cincinnati
13	Stephen F. Austin	North Texas	Vermont	New Mexico St.
14	Wright St.	Colgate	Bowling Green	Little Rock
15	Hofstra	Winthrop	Murray St.	UC-Irvine
16	South Dakota St.	Northern Colorado	Prairie View	Monmouth	Robert Morris	North Carolina A&T
The Bubble Contenders
69	Oklahoma
70	Mississippi St.
71	Arizona St.
72	Minnesota
73	Georgetown
74	Tulsa
75	Utah St.
76	Richmond
77	North Carolina St.
78	Providence

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For February 3, 2020

Date	2/3/2020
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Baylor	Gonzaga	Kansas	San Diego St.
2	Duke	Dayton	Louisville	West Virginia
3	Seton Hall	Florida St.	Maryland	Villanova
4	Michigan St.	Butler	Auburn	Oregon
5	Iowa	LSU	Creighton	Penn St.
6	Kentucky	Colorado	Illinois	Arizona
7	Marquette	Rutgers	Ohio St.	Houston
8	Wisconsin	Arkansas	Michigan	Wichita St.
9	Stanford	BYU	USC	Saint Mary’s
10	Indiana	Florida	Rhode Island	Oklahoma
11	Texas Tech	Memphis	Northern Iowa	VCU	Mississippi St.
12	East Tennessee St.	Yale	Liberty	Virginia	Xavier
13	Stephen F. Austin	Louisiana Tech	Vermont	New Mexico St.
14	Wright St.	UC-Irvine	Colgate	Bowling Green
15	Winthrop	Little Rock	Hofstra	Murray St.
16	South Dakota St.	Eastern Washington	Texas Southern	Monmouth	Robert Morris	North Carolina A&T

 

First Four Out
Purdue	Georgetown	Arizona St.	Tulsa

Next Four Out
Cincinnati	Utah St.	Minnesota	Alabama

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For January 31, 2020

 

Date	1/31/2020
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Baylor	Gonzaga	San Diego St.	Kansas
2	Seton Hall	Duke	Dayton	Louisville
3	Villanova	West Virginia	Oregon	Florida St.
4	Michigan St.	Maryland	Butler	Kentucky
5	Auburn	Penn St.	Iowa	LSU
6	Creighton	Colorado	Illinois	Rutgers
7	Marquette	Arizona	USC	Houston
8	Wichita St.	Arkansas	Ohio St.	Indiana
9	Saint Mary’s	Michigan	Texas Tech	Wisconsin
10	Oklahoma	Florida	BYU	Stanford
11	Memphis	VCU	Northern Iowa	Rhode Island	North Carolina St.
12	Liberty	East Tennessee St.	North Texas	Purdue	Virginia
13	Stephen F. Austin	Harvard	Vermont	Wright St.
14	UC-Irvine	New Mexico St.	Winthrop	Bowling Green
15	Colgate	William & Mary	Little Rock	Murray St.
16	South Dakota St.	Eastern Washington	Monmouth	Prairie View	Robert Morris	Norfolk St.

 

First Four Out
Mississippi St.	Minnesota	Alabama	Texas Tech

Next Four Out
Arizona St.	Texas	Syracuse	Utah St.

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 30, 2020

Thursday’s Games

 

Home	Visitor	Spread
Arkansas St.	Appalachian St.	1.2
Austin Peay	SIU-Edwardsville	16.4
BYU	Pepperdine	15.3
Cal Poly	Cal St. Fullerton	-1.5
Cal St. Northridge	UC Santa Barbara	-2.2
California	Oregon	-10.9
Campbell	High Point	11.7
Charleston Southern	Winthrop	-7.4
Cleveland St.	IUPUI	4.5
Denver	South Dakota	-6.0
Eastern Kentucky	UT Martin	2.9
Elon	Hofstra	-7.2
Florida Atlantic	Western Kentucky	-3.8
Florida International	Marshall	2.1
Georgia Southern	Troy	10.5
Georgia St.	South Alabama	9.0
Illinois	Minnesota	5.2
Jacksonville	Florida Gulf Coast	8.2
Jacksonville St.	Tennessee St.	4.1
James Madison	Charleston	-5.2
Liberty	Kennesaw St.	27.3
Little Rock	Coastal Carolina	5.9
Longwood	Radford	-6.7
Louisiana Tech	Charlotte	10.2
Maryland	Iowa	4.9
Merrimack	St. Francis (NY)	6.1
Morehead St.	Southeast Missouri	5.7
Murray St.	Eastern Illinois	9.8
New Mexico St.	Cal St. Bakersfield	12.3
NJIT	North Alabama	3.4
North Florida	Stetson	10.6
Northern Colorado	Idaho St.	15.2
Pacific	Loyola Marymount	6.4
Portland St.	Montana	0.8
Presbyterian	South Carolina Upstate	1.9
Purdue Fort Wayne	North Dakota	0.9
Robert Morris	Bryant	2.6
Sacred Heart	Mount St. Mary’s	6.3
Saint Mary’s	Portland	20.3
San Diego	San Francisco	-5.2
Santa Clara	Gonzaga	-15.2
Southern Miss	Old Dominion	-2.1
Southern Utah	Weber St.	11.1
St. Francis (PA)	Central Connecticut	19.8
Stanford	Oregon St.	8.1
Tennessee Tech	Belmont	-15.6
Texas St.	Louisiana Monroe	12.5
Towson	UNC Wilmington	12.4
UC Davis	UC Irvine	-3.9
UC Riverside	Long Beach St.	8.2
UCLA	Colorado	-6.5
UNC Asheville	Gardner-Webb	2.4
USC	Utah	8.9
UT Arlington	Louisiana	12.2
UT Rio Grande Valley	Grand Canyon	2.3
UTEP	Middle Tennessee	11.3
UTSA	UAB	3.6
Wagner	Fairleigh Dickinson	1.6
Washington	Arizona	-3.0
Western Illinois	North Dakota St.	-8.7
William & Mary	Northeastern	0.9
Youngstown St	Illinois Chicago	2.8

 

The 10 Best Games On TV Tonight

 

Time (EST)	Network	Home	Visitor
7:00 PM	ESPN+	North Florida	Stetson
7:30 PM	FS1	Illinois	Minnesota
7:30 PM	ESPN+	Louisiana Tech	Charlotte
7:30 PM	ESPN+	Charleston Southern	Winthrop
8:30 PM	BTN	Maryland	Iowa
8:30 PM	CBSSN	BYU	Pepperdine
9:00 PM	Pac-12	California	Oregon
9:00 PM	ESPN2	Washington	Arizona
10:30 PM	CBSSN	Santa Clara	Gonzaga
11:00 PM	ESPN2	UCLA	Colorado

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For January 26, 2020

Date	1/26/2020
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Baylor	Gonzaga	Kansas	San Diego St.
2	Florida St.	Duke	Seton Hall	West Virginia
3	Louisville	Michigan St.	Dayton	Butler
4	Villanova	Oregon	Maryland	Iowa
5	Kentucky	Auburn	Colorado	LSU
6	Creighton	Penn St.	Arizona	Rutgers
7	Marquette	Illinois	Wichita St.	Arkansas
8	Ohio St.	Stanford	Indiana	Wisconsin
9	Houston	Florida	Saint Mary’s	Oklahoma
10	Memphis	Texas Tech	BYU	USC
11	Michigan	North Carolina St.	East Tennessee St.	Virginia Tech	VCU
12	Akron	North Texas	Liberty	Minnesota	Xavier
13	Stephen F. Austin	New Mexico St.	Vermont	Harvard
14	Loyola (Chi.)	Colgate	William & Mary	Wright St.
15	Little Rock	UC-Irvine	Murray St.	South Dakota St.
16	Montana	Winthrop	Monmouth	Norfolk St.	Robert Morris	Prairie View
	First Four Out
	Georgetown	Purdue	Alabama	Tennessee
	Next Four Out
	Richmond	Rhode Island	DePaul	Northern Iowa

Another Bracketology Will Publish Tomorrow Afternoon.  Many NCAA Tournament Team Contenders Are Playing Sunday.

 

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For January 24 , 2020

Date	1/24/2020
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Baylor	Gonzaga	San Diego St.	Kansas
2	Florida St.	Duke	Michigan St.	Seton Hall
3	West Virginia	Louisville	Oregon	Dayton
4	Villanova	Butler	Maryland	Iowa
5	Kentucky	Arizona	Auburn	Colorado
6	Creighton	Penn St.	Wisconsin	Marquette
7	LSU	Rutgers	Illinois	Wichita St.
8	Ohio St.	Stanford	Indiana	Arkansas
9	Houston	Michigan	USC	Florida
10	Memphis	Texas Tech	BYU	Saint Mary’s
11	Oklahoma	North Carolina St.	East Tennessee St.	Virginia Tech	VCU
12	Liberty	Akron	North Texas	Minnesota	DePaul
13	Stephen F. Austin	New Mexico St.	Vermont	Harvard
14	Loyola (Chi.)	Colgate	William & Mary	Wright St.
15	Little Rock	UC-Irvine	Murray St.	South Dakota St.
16	Montana	Winthrop	Monmouth	Norfolk St.	Long Island	Prairie View

 

First Four Out
Georgetown	Richmond	Purdue	Xavier

 

Next Four Out
Tennessee	Alabama	Rhode Island	Northern Iowa

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 23, 2020

Games Being Played Thursday

Home	Visitor	Spread
UNC Asheville	Radford	-4.4
Ohio St.	Minnesota	7.7
Hofstra	Delaware	6.7
Stetson	NJIT	-0.1
Kennesaw St.	North Alabama	-6.1
William & Mary	James Madison	10.2
Cleveland St.	Green Bay	-3.1
Detroit	IUPUI	7.0
Winthrop	USC Upstate	16.3
Northeastern	Drexel	7.4
Oakland	Illinois Chicago	5.7
Youngstown St	Milwaukee	3.6
Murray St.	Belmont	-1.1
High Point	Gardner-Webb	-6.5
Old Dominion	Florida Intl.	3.0
Central Connecticut	Sacred Heart	-13.4
Merrimack	Fairleigh Dickinson	7.4
Long Island	St. Francis (PA)	0.6
St. Francis (NY)	Robert Morris	-3.2
North Florida	Liberty	-4.9
Charlotte	Florida Atlantic	4.9
Bryant	Wagner	8.7
Hampton	Campbell	-2.3
Elon	Towson	-5.8
Lipscomb	Jacksonville	2.2
Charleston Southern	Presbyterian	5.9
Middle Tennessee	Louisiana Tech	-12.0
North Texas	UTSA	10.1
Rice	UTEP	-2.0
Arkansas St.	South Alabama	0.2
Omaha	Western Illinois	11.6
South Dakota	Purdue Fort Wayne	7.1
Utah	Washington	-3.4
North Dakota	Denver	9.3
UAB	Southern Miss	8.7
Indiana	Michigan St.	-3.4
Austin Peay	Tennessee St.	7.5
Missouri St.	Valparaiso	3.4
SIU-Edwardsville	SEMO	0.8
Tennessee Tech	Morehead St.	-3.2
Eastern Illinois	UT-Martin	8.9
Jacksonville St.	Eastern Kentucky	8.8
Grand Canyon	Seattle	1.6
Idaho St.	Montana	-1.8
Weber St.	Montana St.	0.2
Houston	UConn	9.1
Colorado	Washington St.	12.8
Loyola Marymount	Portland	5.6
Santa Clara	Pepperdine	3.8
Cal St. Bakersfield	Utah Valley	6.2

 

Interesting Analytics

Every year at this time, the PiRates begin looking at some of the advanced analytics that we have used to gauge potential NCAA Tournament success.

Our R+T Rating ™, is our personal creation that attempts to predict how many more opportunities to score a team might have in a game as compared to an average team.  It relies on rebounding margin and turnover margin with an added emphasis on steals and protecting the ball from being stolen by the other team.  It attempts to estimate the potential extra points available to the team due to the “hustle stats.”

In the past, when a team has an R+T of 15.0 or better, that team has the ability to score on enough extra opportunities to go on a big spurt and put another team away.  When UCLA was the dominant basketball team during John Wooden’s runs, their R+T stats were always at the top of the nation.  When they had the 1964 small lineup that went 30-0, the 2-2-1 zone press created turnover after turnover by the opponent with a lot of steals.  These extra opportunities prevented the other team from scoring, but they also led to easy fast break points, and the Bruins had incredible scoring spurts in every game, the most famous being the incredible 16-0 run in just over two minutes before halftime that put NCAA Championship Game with Duke out of reach.

The Lew Alcindor (Kareem Abdul Jabbar) and Bill Walton years saw the Bruins totally dominating on the glass while still getting a nice number of steals and forcing turnovers.  These UCLA teams frequently had 20 extra scoring opportunities a game, and with Jabbar and Walton both hitting better than 60% from the field, the Bruins were unstoppable.

Long after UCLA won those 10 titles, the ability to get extra scoring opportunities has remained consistently and vitally important in NCAA Tournament games.  To get to the Big Dance, teams must display an ability to play very tough defense, and teams with good offenses and little else become pretenders when every opponent they face will play much better defense than the average opponent in the regular season.  Thus, the ability to create extra scoring opportunities and the ability to prevent extra scoring opportunities take precedence over just being able to shoot the ball more accurately than the opponent.

Obviously, we do not throw the baby out with the bath water.  Shooting is still quite important.  After all, the object of the game is to put the ball in the basket more than the other team.  If a team gets 10 more chances to put the ball in the basket, but they shoot like our Captain trying to putt at Pebble Beach, 30 more chances might not be enough to overcome the inaccurate marksmanship.  Obviously, shooting ability and ability to prevent made shots remain important.

Then, there is the third key factor.  If State only plays Southeast Northwest Community College and similar teams, they will inevitably end up with impressive stats.  If Tech plays Kansas, Duke, Maryland, Oregon, and Kentucky out of conference, it is going to be difficult, make that impossible, to end up with stats as impressive at State.  Thus strength of schedule must play as important a roll as the other two stats.  Think of schedule strength in the same vein as class in thoroughbred horse racing, where a winner of a claiming race is not going to compete well against the fifth place winner from a Grade 1 Classic race, even if in the last two races, their times for 1 1/8 miles were about the same.

Let’s put all three key stats together and look at a sampling of teams that are producing quality numbers across the board.

 

Team	R+T	TS%	SOS
Baylor	19.1	5.8	55.1
Butler	15.2	8.8	57.2
UC-Irvine	20.2	5.6	50.4
Duke	21.5	8.4	55.7
Gonzaga	27.7	10.1	49.0
Houston	25.5	4.2	54.4
Illinois	22.2	6.2	55.4
Indiana	20.6	3.2	54.7
Kansas	18.5	10.9	62.7
Kentucky	16.2	8.3	52.2
Liberty	15.9	12.6	43.4
Louisiana State	16.9	6.6	54.4
Maryland	16.7	5.2	58.4
Michigan State	21.6	10.2	57.7
New Mexico State	18.3	4.3	49.3
Oral Roberts	16.3	2.1	53.6
Rutgers	19.7	6.2	55.7
San Diego State	18.4	9.9	49.6
Southern Utah	15.7	8	48.2
Stephen F. Austin	22.5	2.9	42.7
Utah State	20.8	6.5	52.3
West Virginia	21.7	5.9	58.8

What you see above are the R+T ratings for 22 teams in column 1.  The formula for R+T is:  (R * 2) + (S * .5) + (6 – Opp S) + T, where R is rebounding margin per game, S is steals per game, Opp S is opponents’ steals per game, and T is turnover margin (Opponents Turnovers minus Teams’  Turnovers divided by games played).

Another excellent formula that estimates extra scoring chances per game is the formula by the brilliant Jordan Sperber, creator of Hoop Vision.  Jordan’s formula is: (Team’s OEff)-((100.9/49.0)*(Team’s eFG%)),  where OEff is offensive efficiency, the number 100.9 represents the average Division 1 team’s offensive efficiency, the number 49.0 represents the average Division 1 team’s effective FG%, and eFG% is effective FG%.  The result represents the extra chances to utilize effective FG%, and like everything else Jordan does, it is a great tool.  By the way, Jordan has worked for my number one rated Mid-Major coach of last year (Eric Musselman), and my number one rated Mid-Major coach of this year (Chris Jans).  His analytics have helped both coaches strategize the way they coach.  Check out Jordan’s website at: https://hoopvision.substack.com

In column 2 above, you see TS%.  This stands for true shooting percentage, which in this case actually stands for the difference in the team’s offensive TS% and the defensive TS%.  To calculate TS%, the formula is: (100 * points scored) /  (2 * [FG Attempts + {.475 * FT Attempts}]) 

The final column represents strength of schedule.  50 is considered an average schedule strength.  55 is considered a strong schedule strength.  60 is considered a tough schedule strength.  Below 45 is considered too weak to consider a team a legitimate contender in the Big Dance.

Gonzaga has the top R+T rating in the nation at the present time.  Their TS% difference is in the top 10, so the Bulldogs should be considered a key contender to run the table in the NCAA Tournament this year, correct?  No, that is not correct.  Gonzaga’s strength of schedule (SOS) is too low.  At 49.0, the other two stats must be discounted.  Gonzaga’s remaining schedule will not give the Bulldogs enough increase in SOS to take their R+T and TS% stats seriously.  This does not mean they will lose to a 16-seed in the first game.  What it means is that when they get to the Sweet 16 and face an opponent with a better SOS and strong R+T and TS%, they will be ripe for the upset.

Baylor, Butler, Duke, Illinois, Kansas, Maryland, Michigan State, Rutgers, and West Virginia have the best resumes today.  They have excellent R+T, TS%, and SOS numbers.  It should be no surprise that the Big 12 and Big Ten are the two best conferences so far this season.  

Kentucky and LSU fall just short of the elites in this test.  Neither team has the important 55 or better SOS mark, although both teams could eventually get over that key number.

Among the mid-major teams to keep an eye on, there are four teams in the West that could be sleepers for the Sweet 16 if they make the dance.  UC-Irvine, New Mexico State, Southern Utah, and Utah State all have strong R+T and TS% numbers with SOS that isn’t totally weak.  Contrast that to Liberty and Stephen F. Austin, two teams where the schedule strength doesn’t cut it.

Then, there are two teams high in the rankings from the lower tier of major conferences.  Houston and San Diego State have excellent numbers, but their schedule strengths make them both on the outside looking in when compared to the power conference teams.  Frequently, teams like these two can make a run to the second weekend of the tournament, and once or twice a decade, they will sneak into the Final Four.  However, when it comes to cut the nets and hear “One Shining Moment,” the happy team is one that comes from one of the top 5 power conferences.

As of today, the top 5 power conferences are: The Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, Atlantic Coast, and Southeastern Conferences.