The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 23, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 8: October 25-29, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Houston Miami 5.8 6.3 5.8 46
Jacksonville (n) Philadelphia -2.0 -2.4 -1.7 41
Pittsburgh Cleveland 12.8 12.7 11.8 46
Kansas City Denver 11.9 12.5 12.9 48.5
Chicago N.Y. Jets 7.8 7.8 8.3 47.5
N.Y. Giants Washington -1.2 -0.7 -1.7 44
Detroit Seattle 1.6 1.9 1.6 49.5
Cincinnati Tampa Bay 6.1 6.6 5.4 47.5
Carolina Baltimore -0.3 -1.6 -0.7 43.5
Oakland Indianapolis -0.6 0.9 -0.7 46
Arizona San Francisco 4.1 2.8 3.8 43.5
L.A. Rams Green Bay 11.7 11.8 12.4 51
Minnesota New Orleans -2.8 -2.6 -3.1 48.5
Buffalo New England -15.2 -15.7 -15.7 38.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 105.3 105.7 105.5 105.5 23 5-2
N. Y. Jets 97.6 97.2 97.6 97.5 24.5 3-4
Miami 96.7 96.2 96.6 96.5 22 4-3
Buffalo 92.1 92.1 91.8 92.0 15.5 2-5
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 105.9 106.0 105.6 105.8 23 3-2-1
Baltimore 104.7 105.3 105.0 105.0 21 4-3
Cincinnati 98.4 98.8 98.4 98.5 23 4-3
Cleveland 95.0 95.3 95.8 95.4 23 2-4-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 100.0 99.8 100.0 99.9 19 3-4
Houston 99.5 99.5 99.4 99.4 24 4-3
Tennessee 97.1 97.2 96.6 97.0 19 3-4
Indianapolis 97.1 95.7 96.8 96.5 25 2-5
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 107.8 108.2 108.2 108.1 27 6-1
LA Chargers 102.2 102.9 102.4 102.5 23.5 5-2
Denver 98.9 98.6 98.3 98.6 21.5 3-4
Oakland 93.4 93.6 93.2 93.4 21 1-5
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 102.0 102.1 101.7 101.9 22 3-4
Dallas 100.5 100.4 99.9 100.3 19.5 3-4
Washington 99.3 98.5 99.6 99.1 22.5 4-2
N.Y. Giants 95.5 95.3 95.4 95.4 21.5 1-6
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Chicago 102.4 102.0 102.9 102.4 23 3-3
Minnesota 102.0 102.2 101.9 102.0 22 4-2-1
Detroit 100.7 100.9 100.9 100.8 27 3-3
Green Bay 99.4 100.1 99.0 99.5 24.5 3-2-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 107.8 107.8 108.0 107.9 26.5 5-1
Carolina 101.9 101.2 101.8 101.6 22.5 4-2
Atlanta 101.3 101.1 101.0 101.1 25.5 3-4
Tampa Bay 95.3 95.2 96.0 95.5 24.5 3-3
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 108.1 108.9 108.4 108.5 26.5 7-0
Seattle 102.1 102.0 102.4 102.2 22.5 3-3
Arizona 95.8 95.0 95.5 95.4 19.5 1-6
San Francisco 94.7 95.1 94.7 94.8 24 1-6

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Kansas City
2 New England
3 Pittsburgh
4 Houston
5 L.A. Chargers
6 Baltimore

 

NFC Seeding
1 L.A. Rams
2 New Orleans
3 Minnesota
4 Washington
5 Carolina
6 Detroit

 

Wildcard Round
Pittsburgh over Baltimore
L.A. Chargers over Houston
Minnesota over Detroit
Carolina over Washington

 

Divisional Round
Kansas City over L.A. Chargers
Pittsburgh over New England
L.A. Rams over Carolina
New Orleans over Minnesota

 

Conference Championship
Kansas City over Pittsburgh
L.A. Rams over New Orleans

 

Super Bowl 53
L.A. Rams over Kansas City

 

 

 

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September 18, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 3: September 20-24, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Cleveland N.Y. Jets 0.1 0.3 0.6 45
Philadelphia Indianapolis 12.3 14.4 11.9 45
Carolina Cincinnati 5.2 4.1 5.2 43
Jacksonville Tennessee 10.4 10.1 11.2 42.5
Atlanta New Orleans 3.5 3.5 3.7 45
Baltimore Denver 5.9 6.9 6.6 44.5
Houston N.Y. Giants 5.4 5.4 5.1 43
Miami Oakland 7.8 6.8 8.2 42.5
Washington Green Bay 2.1 -0.2 2.2 45
Minnesota Buffalo 16.0 16.3 16.2 38
Kansas City San Francisco 9.5 9.4 9.9 49
L.A. Rams L.A. Chargers 6.7 7.3 7.3 47
Arizona Chicago -1.6 -2.3 -2.8 37.5
Seattle Dallas 3.7 3.2 3.7 41.5
Detroit New England -3.3 -4.3 -3.2 47
Tampa Bay Pittsburgh -5.2 -5.3 -3.9 45.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 104.4 105.1 104.2 104.6 21 1-1
Miami 99.2 98.6 99.6 99.1 21.5 2-0
N. Y. Jets 98.7 98.5 98.9 98.7 23 1-1
Buffalo 91.4 91.3 91.0 91.2 18 0-2
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 105.1 105.0 104.3 104.8 22.5 0-1-1
Baltimore 101.2 101.9 101.3 101.5 23 1-1
Cincinnati 99.7 100.3 99.9 100.0 21.5 2-0
Cleveland 95.8 95.8 96.5 96.0 22 0-1-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 104.3 104.2 104.7 104.4 21.5 2-0
Houston 99.2 99.2 98.9 99.1 24 0-2
Tennessee 96.9 97.0 96.5 96.8 21 1-1
Indianapolis 95.0 93.1 94.8 94.3 22 1-1
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 105.3 105.7 105.7 105.6 25.5 2-0
LA Chargers 101.1 101.9 101.4 101.5 22 1-1
Denver 98.3 98.0 97.7 98.0 21.5 2-0
Oakland 94.8 95.3 94.9 95.0 21 0-2
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 102.2 102.5 101.8 102.2 23 1-1
Dallas 99.6 99.6 99.3 99.5 19.5 1-1
Washington 99.6 98.4 99.4 99.1 21.5 1-1
N.Y. Giants 96.8 96.7 96.8 96.8 19 0-2
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Minnesota 104.4 104.5 104.2 104.4 20 1-0-1
Green Bay 100.5 101.6 100.2 100.7 23.5 1-0-1
Chicago 99.3 99.0 100.0 99.4 18.5 1-1
Detroit 98.1 97.9 98.0 98.0 26 0-2
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Atlanta 104.4 104.3 104.6 104.4 21.5 1-1
New Orleans 103.4 103.3 103.4 103.4 23.5 1-1
Carolina 101.9 101.4 102.1 101.8 21.5 1-1
Tampa Bay 97.9 97.7 98.4 98.0 23 2-0
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 107.9 109.2 108.7 108.6 25 2-0
Seattle 100.3 99.8 100.0 100.0 22 0-2
San Francisco 98.8 99.3 98.8 99.0 23.5 1-1
Arizona 94.7 93.7 94.2 94.2 19 0-2

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Kansas City
2 Jacksonville
3 New England
4 Cincinnati
5 Miami
6 L.A. Chargers

 

NFC Seeding
1 L.A. Rams
2 Minnesota
3 Philadelphia
4 Tampa Bay
5 Green Bay
6 Atlanta

 

Wildcard Round
L.A. Chargers over New England
Miami over Cincinnati
Philadelphia over Atlanta
Green Bay over Tampa Bay

 

Divisional Round
L.A. Chargers over Kansas City
Jacksonville over Miami
L.A. Rams over Green Bay
Minnesota over Philadelphia

 

Conference Championship
Jacksonville over L.A. Chargers
L.A. Rams over Minnesota

 

Super Bowl 53
L.A. Rams over Jacksonville

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 11, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 2: September 13-17, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Week Number: 2
Date of Games: September 13-17
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Cincinnati Baltimore -0.7 -1.0 -1.0 43.5
Washington Indianapolis 10.9 12.3 11.5 44.5
Atlanta Carolina 4.7 4.9 4.5 42
Green Bay Minnesota -1.1 0.1 -1.4 42
Buffalo L.A. Chargers -5.5 -6.3 -5.7 39
Tennessee Houston 0.2 0.4 0.1 46
Pittsburgh Kansas City 4.4 4.2 3.4 46.5
N.Y. Jets Miami 5.1 5.8 5.2 45
Tampa Bay Philadelphia -2.3 -3.4 -1.3 46
New Orleans Cleveland 12.7 12.8 12.4 46.5
L.A. Rams Arizona 11.9 13.9 12.9 45
San Francisco Detroit 3.7 4.4 3.8 49
Jacksonville New England 0.8 -0.3 1.0 41.5
Denver Oakland 6.8 6.0 6.1 42.5
Dallas N.Y. Giants 5.3 5.4 5.0 39.5
Chicago Seattle 1.2 1.1 1.9 40.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 105.3 106.1 105.3 105.6 20 1-0
N. Y. Jets 99.8 99.8 100.2 99.9 23.5 1-0
Miami 97.8 97.0 98.0 97.6 21.5 1-0
Buffalo 92.2 92.1 92.0 92.1 18 0-1
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 105.4 105.4 104.7 105.2 22 0-0-1
Baltimore 102.3 103.1 102.6 102.7 23 1-0
Cincinnati 98.6 99.1 98.6 98.8 20.5 1-0
Cleveland 95.0 94.9 95.5 95.1 22 0-0-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 103.1 102.9 103.3 103.1 21.5 1-0
Houston 99.2 99.2 98.9 99.1 24.5 0-1
Tennessee 96.9 97.0 96.5 96.8 21.5 0-1
Indianapolis 93.6 91.4 93.1 92.7 22.5 0-1
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 104.0 104.3 104.3 104.2 24.5 1-0
LA Chargers 100.6 101.4 100.7 100.9 21 0-1
Denver 98.6 98.3 98.0 98.3 21.5 1-0
Oakland 94.8 95.3 94.9 95.0 21 0-1
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 102.7 103.3 102.3 102.8 23 1-0
Washington 101.5 100.6 101.6 101.2 22 1-0
Dallas 99.5 99.5 99.2 99.4 20 0-1
N.Y. Giants 97.2 97.1 97.2 97.2 19.5 0-1
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Minnesota 104.5 104.5 104.4 104.5 19.5 1-0
Green Bay 100.4 101.6 100.0 100.6 22.5 1-0
Chicago 99.0 98.6 99.6 99.1 18.5 0-1
Detroit 98.1 97.9 98.0 98.0 25.5 0-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 104.7 104.7 104.9 104.8 24.5 0-1
Atlanta 104.2 104.1 104.4 104.2 21 0-1
Carolina 102.1 101.6 102.3 102.0 21 1-0
Tampa Bay 97.4 96.9 97.9 97.4 23 1-0
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 105.7 106.8 106.4 106.3 25.5 1-0
Seattle 100.9 100.5 100.7 100.7 22 0-1
San Francisco 98.8 99.3 98.8 99.0 23.5 0-1
Arizona 96.3 95.5 95.9 95.9 19.5 0-1

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 New England
2 Kansas City
3 Jacksonville
4 Baltimore
5 Pittsburgh
6 New York Jets
NFC Seeding
1 L.A. Rams
2 Minnesota
3 Philadelphia
4 Carolina
5 Green Bay
6 Washington
Wildcard Round
N.Y. Jets over Jacksonville
Baltimore over Pittsburgh
Philadelphia over Washington
Green Bay over Carolina
Divisional Round
New England over N.Y. Jets
Baltimore over Kansas City
L.A. Rams over Green Bay
Minnesota over Philadelphia
Conference Championship
New England over Baltimore
L.A. Rams over Minnesota
Super Bowl 53
L.A. Rams over New England

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

February 28, 2018

PiRate Ratings Conference Tournament Update–February 28, 2018

Conference Tournament Results From Last Night

Big South Conference Tournament
First Round–February 27
   
Longwood   68 High Point   55
Charleston Southern   68 Presbyterian   51

Big South Bracket Update

Quarterfinals–March 1
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
1:00 PM #2 Radford #10 Longwood ESPN3
3:30 PM #3 Winthrop #6 Gardner-Webb ESPN3
7:00 PM #1 UNC-Asheville #8 Charleston Southern ESPN3
9:30 PM #4 Campbell #5 Liberty ESPN3
       
Semifinals–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM Radford or Longwood Winthrop/G-Webb ESPN3
8:30 PM UNCA/Chas. Southern Campbell or Liberty ESPN3
       
Championship–March 4
Time Home Visitors TV
1:00 PM Higher Seed Lower Seed ESPN

 

Patriot League Tournament
First Round–February 27
   
Lafayette   93 American   86
Loyola (MD)   82 Army   79

Patriot League Bracket Update

Quarterfinals–March 1
Time Home Visitors TV
7:00 PM #1 Bucknell #8 Loyola (MD) Stadium
7:00 PM #4 Lehigh #5 Boston U Stadium
7:00 PM #2 Colgate #7 Lafayette Stadium
7:00 PM #3 Navy #6 Holy Cross Stadium
       
Semifinals–March 4
Time Home Visitors TV
12/2 Bucknell or Loyola Lehigh or Boston U CBSSN
12/2 Colgate or Lafayette Navy or Holy Cross CBSSN
       
Championship–March 7
Time Home Visitors TV
7:30 PM     CBSSN

Conference Tournaments in Action Today

Big Ten Conference Tournament
New York City
All Times EST
       
First Round–February 28
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
5:30 PM #12 Iowa #13 Illinois Big Ten
7:45 PM #11 Minnesota #14 Rutgers Big Ten
       
Second Round–March 1
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #8 Maryland #9 Wisconsin Big Ten
2:15 PM #5 Michigan Iowa or Illinois Big Ten
6:30 PM #7 Penn St. #10 Northwestern Big Ten
8:45 PM #6 Indiana Minn. or Rutgers Big Ten
       
Quarterfinals–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #1 Michigan St. Mary or Wisc Big Ten
2:15 PM #4 Nebraska Mich/Iowa/Ill Big Ten
6:30 PM #2 Ohio St. PSU or N’Western Big Ten
8:45 PM #3 Purdue Ind/Minn/Rutg Big Ten
       
Semifinals–March 3
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
2:00 PM MSU/Mary/Wisc Neb/Mich/Iowa/Ill CBS
4:30 PM OSU/Purd/NW Purd/Ind/Minn/Rutg CBS
       
Championship–March 4
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
4:30 PM     CBS

The Big Ten Tournament was moved up a week so that it could be held at Madison Square Garden in New York.  The Big East has dibs on next week.  You won’t find one Big Ten coach happy with this decision, and Commissioner Jim Delany has stated that the Big Ten will not squeeze its schedule again to hold its tournament a week earlier than normal.

Two of the four coaches participating tonight have been reported to be on hot seats with their schools, but we tend to believe they will both be back next year despite poor seasons this year.  Minnesota’s Richard Pitino has had to deal with a suspension of his top player and injuries to multiple contributing players, so that the Gophers have not been able to practice 5 on 5 during conference tournament action. UM lost nine games in a row before winning on senior night over Iowa, and the Gophers enter tournament play below .500 at 15-16 after being ranked as high as 12th in the AP poll in November.

Speaking of Iowa, some media outlets report that Hawkeye coach Fran McCaffery is on the hot seat and could lose his job once Iowa has been eliminated from this tournament.  McCaffery received a lucrative extension last year, and we do not think the university would ante up such a large buyout.

As for this tournament, two teams are desperate to win multiple games to get into the NCAA Tournament.  Nebraska (13-5/22-9) is not even on the list of first 6 teams out.  The Cornhuskers must get to the Semifinals of this tournament just to get into the conversation, and they probably need to make it to the Championship Game to have any chance to make the field.

Penn State (9-9/19-12) has no chance other than to win the tournament.  In some years, a .500 record in the Big Ten would have been enough to get a team in the field, but with the new quadrant system in place and the fact that conference won-loss records no longer factor into the selection process, the Nittany Lions have no chance other than to win the automatic bid.

Michigan State has won 12 games in a row and looks like the clear favorite, but the top seed has not been all that successful in this tournament.  With the schedule bunched together, the four teams with double byes (MSU, Ohio St., Purdue, and Nebraska) have huge advantages.  A Nebraska-Michigan State semifinal game would be can’t miss for sure, with the Spartans vying for a #1 seed, and the Cornhuskers faced with a must-win to get in dilemma.  Michigan is the defending tournament champions.  The Wolverines won from back in the pack last year.

Northeast Conference Tournament
All Games at Higher Seed
Top 8 Teams Qualify and Tournament Re-seeds after Quarterfinals
All Times EST
       
Quarterfinals–February 28
Time Home Team Visitors TV
7:00 PM #1 Wagner #8 Central Connecticut NEC *
7:00 PM #2 Mount St. Mary’s #7 Robert Morris NEC *
7:00 PM #3 St. Francis (PA) #6 Fairleigh-Dickinson NEC *
7:00 PM #4 Long Island #5 St. Francis (Bkn) NEC *
* NEC Front Row at http://necfrontrow.com/
       
Semifinals–March 3
Time Home Team Visitors TV
12:00 PM Highest Remaining Lowest Remaining ESPN3
2:00 PM 2nd Highest 3rd Highest ESPN3
       
Championship–March 6
Time Home Team Visitors TV
7:00 PM Higher Seed Lower Seed ESPN2

This tournament is a toss-up with seven teams capable of winning it all.  The fact that the higher seeds host the games, and the tournament re-seeds after the quarterfinals really helps the top two seeds, but the next five teams are strong enough to win on the road.

Third-seeded St. Francis (Pa.) enters the tournament riding a five-game winning streak, but the Red Flash were wiped off the floor by top-seed Wagner twice this year.  Fourth-seed Long Island and Sixth-seed Fairleigh Dickinson match up quite well with Wagner and both beat the Seahawks on their home floors, while losing close games at Wagner.

 

Ohio Valley Conference Tournament
Evansville, IN
Top 8 Teams Qualify, Southeast Missouri ineligible due to low APR Scores
All Times CST
       
First Round–February 28
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:30 PM #5 Tennessee Tech #8 SIU-Edwardsville OVC
9:00 PM #6 Tennessee St. #7 Eastern Illinois OVC
OVC Network at http://www.ovcdigitalnetwork.com/watch
       
Quarterfinals–March 1
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:30 PM #4 Jacksonville St. Tenn Tech or SIU-E OVC
9:00 PM #3 Austin Peay TSU or EIU OVC
       
Semifinals–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM #1 Murray St. JSU/TTU/SIU-E ESPNU
9:30 PM #2 Belmont APSU/TSU/EIU ESPNU
       
Championship–March 3
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM     ESPN2

The OVC Tournament moves away from Nashville this year to Evansville, and with it goes Belmont’s home town advantage (the tournament was played downtown at the old Municpal Auditorium and not on Belmont’s campus).

The move up the road 125 miles should help top-seed Murray State, and in this league the top two seeds receive staggering advantages, getting byes to the semifinal round.

We’d be surprised if Belmont and Murray didn’t meet in the championship, but Austin Peay and Jacksonville State will have a lot to say about that.  We do not see any of the other four teams having much chance to make it all the way to the championship.  The OVC will be the first team to place a team into the field of 68.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

January 15, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Conference Championship Games: January 21, 2018

All times given are Eastern Standard

Sunday, January 21, 2018

3:05 PM on CBS

Jacksonville Jaguars (11-6-0) at New England Patriots (14-3-0)

PiRate: New England by 7.6

Mean: New England by 8.0

Bias: New England by 7.4

Total: 44

Estimated Realistic Score: New England 27  Jacksonville 17 

 

6:40 PM on Fox

Minnesota Vikings (14-3-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (14-3-0)

PiRate: Minnesota by 2.0

Mean: Minnesota by 1.2

Bias:  Minnesota by 2.1

Total: 37

Estimated Realistic Score: Minnesota 20  Philadelphia 17

January 8, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Divisional Playoff Round: January 13-14, 2018

All times given are Eastern Standard

Saturday, January 13, 2018

4:35 PM on NBC

Atlanta Falcons (11-6-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (13-3-0)

PiRate: Philadelphia by 5.2

Mean: Philadelphia by 5.6

Bias: Philadelphia by 5.1

Total: 46

Estimated Realistic Score: Philadelphia 26  Atlanta 20

 

8:15 PM on CBS

Tennessee Titans (10-7-0) at New England Patriots (13-3-0)

PiRate: New England by 11.5

Mean: New England by  11.5

Bias: New England by 11.7

Total: 44

Estimated Realistic Score: New England 28  Tennessee 16

 

Sunday, January 14, 2018

1:05 PM on CBS

Jacksonville Jaguars (11-6-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3-0)

PiRate: Pittsburgh by 6.1

Mean: Pittsburgh by 6.4

Bias: Pittsburgh by 5.9

Total: 43

Estimated Realistic Score: Pittsburgh 24 Jacksonville 17

 

4:40 PM on Fox Sports

New Orleans Saints (12-5-0) at Minnesota Vikings (13-3-0)

PiRate: Minnesota by 4.7

Mean: Minnesota by 4.8

Bias: Minnesota by 4.8

Total: 46

Estimated Realistic Score: Minnesota 24  New Orleans 20

December 19, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 16: December 23-25, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Baltimore Indianapolis 16.5 16.3 17.2 44
Green Bay Minnesota -6.3 -5.3 -7.6 39
Cincinnati Detroit -3.7 -3.3 -4.0 43
N. Y. Jets LA Chargers -6.6 -6.6 -6.8 41
Tennessee LA Rams -6.9 -6.0 -8.1 47
Chicago Cleveland 7.9 7.3 11.0 34
Carolina Tampa Bay 8.8 8.0 9.2 49
New Orleans Atlanta 6.0 5.7 6.4 55
Washington Denver 4.5 4.7 4.3 43
Kansas City Miami 9.8 9.7 10.5 44
New England Buffalo 14.2 13.9 14.2 42
San Francisco Jacksonville -7.3 -7.4 -7.5 45
Arizona N. Y. Giants 5.6 5.1 5.8 41
Dallas Seattle 4.1 3.5 4.8 45
Houston Pittsburgh -10.2 -10.1 -11.0 45
Philadelphia Oakland 12.9 11.0 14.8 47

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 108.0 108.1 108.1 108.0 22 11-3
Buffalo 96.3 96.6 96.4 96.4 20 8-6
Miami 96.1 96.2 95.6 96.0 21 6-8
N. Y. Jets 94.3 94.0 94.4 94.3 18 5-9
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Baltimore 105.9 106.1 106.1 106.0 22 8-6
Pittsburgh 105.6 105.7 105.8 105.7 23 11-3
Cincinnati 94.2 95.0 93.8 94.4 16 5-9
Cleveland 91.0 91.7 88.1 90.2 17 0-14
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 104.9 104.7 105.1 104.9 22 10-4
Tennessee 97.6 97.8 97.2 97.5 22 8-6
Houston 92.4 92.6 91.8 92.3 22 4-10
Indianapolis 91.9 92.3 91.3 91.8 22 3-11
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Chargers 104.5 104.1 104.7 104.4 23 7-7
Kansas City 102.8 102.9 103.2 103.0 23 8-6
Oakland 97.5 98.1 96.7 97.4 22 6-8
Denver 96.1 95.9 96.0 96.0 19 5-9
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 106.9 105.6 108.0 106.8 25 12-2
Dallas 102.9 102.4 102.9 102.8 24 8-6
Washington 97.5 97.7 97.3 97.5 24 6-8
N.Y. Giants 93.0 93.5 92.7 93.1 20 2-12
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Minnesota 106.9 106.5 107.6 107.0 18 11-3
Detroit 100.5 100.8 100.3 100.6 27 8-6
Green Bay 98.7 99.2 98.0 98.6 21 7-7
Chicago 96.4 96.5 96.5 96.5 17 4-10
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 107.2 106.6 107.7 107.2 29 10-4
Atlanta 104.1 103.9 104.3 104.1 26 9-5
Carolina 103.5 102.7 104.0 103.4 27 10-4
Tampa Bay 97.2 97.2 97.4 97.3 22 4-10
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 107.5 106.8 108.3 107.5 25 10-4
Seattle 101.8 102.0 101.1 101.6 21 8-6
Arizona 95.7 95.6 95.5 95.6 21 6-8
San Francisco 94.5 94.3 94.6 94.5 23 4-10

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 New England
2 Pittsburgh
3 Jacksonville
4 Kansas City
5 Baltimore
6 LA Chargers
   
NFC Seeding
1 Philadelphia
2 Minnesota
3 LA Rams
4 New Orleans
5 Carolina
6 Atlanta
Wildcard Round
Jacksonville over LA Chargers
Baltimore over Kansas City
LA Rams over Atlanta
New Orleans over Carolina
 
Divisional Round
New England over Baltimore
Pittsburgh over Jacksonville
New Orleans over Philadelphia
Minnesota over LA Rams
 
Conference Championship
Pittsburgh over New England
Minnesota over New Orleans
 
Super Bowl 52
Pittsburgh over Minnesota

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

December 12, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 15: December 14-18, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Indianapolis Denver 0.5 0.8 0.3 41
Detroit Chicago 6.2 6.5 5.7 45
Kansas City LA Chargers -1.7 -0.8 -2.0 46
N. Y. Giants Philadelphia -12.6 -10.6 -14.6 43
Carolina Green Bay 7.1 5.8 8.3 48
Minnesota Cincinnati 12.9 11.7 14.0 35
Buffalo Miami 2.4 2.8 2.7 41
Jacksonville Houston 11.1 10.8 11.8 44
New Orleans N. Y. Jets 16.2 16.0 16.6 47
Washington Arizona 5.4 5.5 5.3 47
Cleveland Baltimore -12.0 -11.7 -12.2 39
Seattle LA Rams 2.4 3.0 1.4 46
Pittsburgh New England 1.1 1.0 1.1 45
San Francisco Tennessee 0.2 0.0 0.7 45
Oakland Dallas -1.9 -0.9 -2.7 47
Tampa Bay Atlanta -4.5 -4.2 -4.4 48

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 107.8 107.9 107.9 107.8 22 10-3
Miami 96.5 96.5 96.1 96.4 21 6-7
Buffalo 95.9 96.3 95.9 96.0 20 7-6
N. Y. Jets 94.1 93.8 94.2 94.1 18 5-8
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 105.8 105.9 106.0 105.9 23 11-2
Baltimore 105.7 106.0 105.8 105.8 22 7-6
Cincinnati 95.6 96.4 95.2 95.8 17 5-8
Cleveland 91.2 91.8 91.1 91.3 17 0-13
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 102.7 102.6 102.8 102.7 22 9-4
Tennessee 97.7 97.8 97.3 97.6 22 8-5
Houston 94.6 94.7 94.1 94.5 22 4-9
Indianapolis 93.0 93.3 92.5 92.9 22 3-10
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Chargers 105.8 105.1 106.2 105.7 23 7-6
Kansas City 101.0 101.4 101.2 101.2 23 7-6
Oakland 97.5 98.1 96.7 97.4 23 6-7
Denver 95.0 94.9 94.8 94.9 19 4-9
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 107.4 106.0 108.8 107.4 25 11-2
Dallas 102.4 101.9 102.4 102.3 24 7-6
Washington 97.5 97.7 97.3 97.5 25 5-8
N.Y. Giants 92.8 93.4 92.2 92.8 18 2-11
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Minnesota 105.5 105.1 106.2 105.6 18 10-3
Detroit 100.3 100.6 100.0 100.3 27 7-6
Green Bay 99.4 99.9 98.7 99.3 21 7-6
Chicago 96.6 96.7 96.8 96.7 18 4-9
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 107.4 106.8 107.9 107.4 29 9-4
Atlanta 104.1 103.9 104.3 104.1 26 8-5
Carolina 103.5 102.7 104.0 103.4 27 9-4
Tampa Bay 97.2 97.2 97.4 97.3 22 4-9
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 104.9 104.4 105.5 104.9 25 9-4
Seattle 104.4 104.4 103.9 104.2 21 8-5
Arizona 95.7 95.6 95.5 95.6 22 6-7
San Francisco 94.4 94.3 94.5 94.4 23 3-10

NFL Playoff Projections

Beginning this week, we look forward predicting the outcomes of every game and then use the NFL tiebreaker system to forecast seeds.  Prior to week 15, we use only the PiRate Ratings themselves to estimate won-loss record.

This week, we have Seattle winning a tiebreaker over the Rams for the NFC West, with the Rams getting a wildcard, and we have the Saints winning a tiebreaker over the Panthers in the NFC South, with the Panthers getting the other wildcard.

In the AFC, we still show New England getting the top seed by virtue of a road win against the Steelers.  We have the Chargers edging the Chiefs in the AFC West, but we show KC getting the last playoff spot due to a possible 4-game collapse by Tennessee.

This is rather sketchy and only one possible outcome for the season.  Obviously, by this time next week, the probabilities will be drastically reduced with many key games.

AFC Seeding
1 New England
2 Pittsburgh
3 Jacksonville
4 LA Chargers
5 Baltimore
6 Kansas City
   
NFC Seeding
1 Philadelphia
2 Minnesota
3 New Orleans
4 Seattle
5 LA Rams
6 Carolina
Wildcard Round
Jacksonville over Kansas City
LA Chargers over Baltimore
New Orleans over Carolina
Seattle over LA Rams
 
Divisional Round
New England over LA Chargers
Jacksonville over Pittsburgh
Seattle over Philadelphia
Minnesota over New Orleans
 
Conference Championship
New England over Jacksonville
Minnesota over Seattle
 
Super Bowl 52
New England over Minnesota

 

 

 

 

 

 

December 5, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 14: December 7-11, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Atlanta New Orleans -1.0 -0.5 -1.4 57
Buffalo Indianapolis 6.3 6.5 6.7 42
Carolina Minnesota 0.1 0.0 -0.2 43
Cincinnati Chicago 7.5 7.9 7.3 35
Cleveland Green Bay -4.4 -4.3 -4.0 38
Houston San Francisco 6.9 7.2 6.7 45
Kansas City Oakland 5.6 5.5 6.3 46
Tampa Bay Detroit 0.4 -0.3 0.8 49
N. Y. Giants Dallas -3.5 -2.8 -3.7 42
Arizona Tennessee -0.1 0.2 0.0 46
Denver N. Y. Jets 0.0 0.4 -0.6 40
LA Chargers Washington 9.7 9.2 10.2 50
Jacksonville Seattle 0.9 1.0 1.3 41
LA Rams Philadelphia -1.1 -0.4 -1.7 47
Pittsburgh Baltimore 2.4 2.1 2.4 43
Miami New England -11.9 -11.6 -12.7 43

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 109.6 109.5 109.9 109.6 22 10-2
Buffalo 96.1 96.5 96.1 96.2 20 6-6
N. Y. Jets 96.2 95.8 96.4 96.2 20 5-7
Miami 94.7 94.9 94.1 94.6 21 5-7
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Baltimore 105.7 106.0 105.8 105.8 21 7-5
Pittsburgh 105.5 105.6 105.7 105.6 22 10-2
Cincinnati 98.8 99.4 98.6 99.0 17 5-7
Cleveland 91.0 91.7 90.9 91.2 17 0-12
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 102.1 102.1 102.1 102.1 21 8-4
Tennessee 98.1 98.0 97.8 98.0 23 8-4
Houston 96.6 96.7 96.3 96.5 22 4-8
Indianapolis 92.8 93.1 92.3 92.7 22 3-9
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Chargers 104.8 104.2 105.1 104.7 23 6-6
Kansas City 100.5 101.0 100.6 100.7 23 6-6
Oakland 98.0 98.5 97.3 97.9 23 6-6
Denver 93.2 93.2 92.9 93.1 20 3-9
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 109.2 107.9 110.5 109.2 24 10-2
Dallas 100.6 100.3 100.4 100.5 24 6-6
Washington 98.0 98.1 97.9 98.0 27 5-7
N.Y. Giants 94.6 95.0 94.2 94.6 18 2-10
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Minnesota 105.8 105.3 106.6 105.9 17 10-2
Detroit 100.2 100.7 99.9 100.3 27 6-6
Green Bay 98.0 98.4 97.3 97.9 21 6-6
Chicago 93.8 94.1 93.8 93.9 18 3-9
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 107.7 107.0 108.2 107.6 30 9-3
Atlanta 103.6 103.5 103.8 103.6 27 7-5
Carolina 103.0 102.3 103.4 102.9 26 8-4
Tampa Bay 97.6 97.4 97.8 97.6 22 4-8
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 105.1 104.5 105.8 105.1 23 9-3
Seattle 104.7 104.6 104.3 104.5 20 8-4
Arizona 95.1 95.2 94.8 95.0 23 5-7
San Francisco 92.7 92.6 92.6 92.6 23 2-10

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 New England
2 Pittsburgh
3 Jacksonville
4 LA Chargers
5 Tennessee
6 Baltimore
   
NFC Seeding
1 Minnesota
2 Philadelphia
3 Los Angeles
4 New Orleans
5 Seattle
6 Carolina
Wildcard Round
Baltimore over Jacksonville
LA Chargers over Tennessee
LA Rams over Carolina
New Orleans over Seattle
 
Divisional Round
New England over Baltimore
LA Chargers over Pittsburgh
Minnesota over New Orleans
Philadelphia over LA Rams
 
Conference Championship
New England over LA Chargers
Minnesota over Philadelphia
 
Super Bowl 52
New England over Minnesota

 

November 28, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 13: November 30-December 4, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Dallas Washington 2.8 3.0 2.4 51
Baltimore Detroit 5.3 5.4 5.3 45
Chicago San Francisco 6.2 6.4 6.5 43
Atlanta Minnesota 2.5 2.7 2.1 47
Buffalo New England -8.9 -8.5 -9.0 45
Miami Denver -0.4 -0.2 -0.6 41
Tennessee Houston 3.5 3.5 3.3 45
Jacksonville Indianapolis 10.5 10.4 10.8 43
Green Bay Tampa Bay 3.6 4.2 3.0 43
N. Y. Jets Kansas City -3.0 -3.9 -2.8 41
New Orleans Carolina 7.0 7.2 6.8 56
LA Chargers Cleveland 17.3 16.1 17.7 42
Arizona LA Rams -5.7 -4.9 -6.6 46
Oakland N. Y. Giants 6.1 6.5 5.7 41
Seattle Philadelphia -5.1 -3.3 -6.8 46
Cincinnati Pittsburgh -4.8 -4.3 -5.1 39

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 108.7 108.7 108.9 108.7 23 9-2
Buffalo 96.8 97.1 96.9 96.9 22 6-5
N. Y. Jets 95.5 95.1 95.7 95.5 20 4-7
Miami 92.4 92.6 91.8 92.3 21 4-7
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 105.8 105.9 106.0 105.9 22 9-2
Baltimore 104.1 104.6 104.0 104.2 19 6-5
Cincinnati 98.5 99.1 98.3 98.7 17 5-6
Cleveland 90.6 91.3 90.5 90.8 19 0-11
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 101.3 101.4 101.2 101.3 21 7-4
Tennessee 97.6 97.6 97.2 97.5 23 7-4
Houston 97.1 97.1 96.9 97.0 22 4-7
Indianapolis 93.8 94.0 93.4 93.7 22 3-8
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Chargers 104.9 104.3 105.2 104.8 23 5-6
Kansas City 101.5 102.0 101.6 101.7 21 6-5
Oakland 97.9 98.5 97.1 97.8 23 5-6
Denver 95.8 95.8 95.5 95.7 20 3-8
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 111.0 109.4 112.3 110.9 25 10-1
Washington 99.5 99.4 99.6 99.5 27 5-6
Dallas 99.4 99.3 99.0 99.3 24 5-6
N.Y. Giants 94.7 95.0 94.4 94.7 18 2-9
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Minnesota 104.8 104.4 105.5 104.9 18 9-2
Detroit 101.8 102.1 101.7 101.9 26 6-5
Green Bay 98.1 98.5 97.5 98.0 21 5-6
Chicago 94.6 94.8 94.7 94.7 19 3-8
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 107.2 106.6 107.6 107.1 30 8-3
Atlanta 104.3 104.1 104.6 104.3 29 7-4
Carolina 103.2 102.4 103.7 103.1 26 8-3
Tampa Bay 97.5 97.3 97.6 97.5 22 4-7
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 104.4 103.8 105.1 104.4 23 8-3
Seattle 102.9 103.1 102.5 102.8 21 7-4
Arizona 95.8 95.9 95.5 95.7 23 5-6
San Francisco 91.9 91.9 91.7 91.8 24 1-10

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding AFC
1 New England 1  
2 Pittsburgh 2  
3 Jacksonville 3  
4 LA Chargers 4  
5 Baltimore 5  
6 Tennessee 6  
       
NFC Seeding NFC
1 Philadelphia 1  
2 Minnesota 2  
3 LA Rams 3  
4 New Orleans 4  
5 Carolina 5  
6 Seattle 6  
Wildcard Round
Jacksonville over Tennessee
LA Chargers over Baltimore
LA Rams over Seattle
Carolina over New Orleans
 
Divisional Round
New England over LA Chargers
Pittsburgh over Jacksonville
Philadelphia over Carolina
LA Rams over Minnesota
 
Conference Championship
Pittsburgh over New England
Philadelphia over LA Rams
 
Super Bowl 52
Philadelphia over Pittsburgh

 

 

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