The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 29, 2022

PiRate Picks–September 29-October 1, 2022

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:38 am

If you follow this weekly feature, then you must realize at this point in the season that the picks made here have put us in an untenable position. Through four full weeks and one partial fifth week in the college football season, we have issued 21 selections. 16 of them have won, and five of them have been at odds exceeding even money. Our imaginary $1,000 starting account has ballooned to $1,906.19 after going 3-0 last week with two of those three wins bringing better than +130 parlay payouts. That 16-5 record is even more ridiculous when you consider that we had one week where we were 1-4. In all the other weeks, our pretend wagering selections are 15-1! Meanwhile, we made comments in two of those weeks that we did not particularly like the slate of games available for those weeks. All this should tell you that if a situation is obviously untenable, don’t make any large gambles on the situation continuing to be as successful or even successful at all in the future. If 76.2% winners were the norm, and the wagers were real, we would be banned from wagering at most of the books and definitely greatly limited in the amount we could wager at those that did not ban us. Only a small minority of the big-time players ever get limited or banned. That’s why in all honesty, the selections going forward are almost sure to disappoint until the percentages normalize. Think of our selections being like the Cleveland Indians beginning the 1966 baseball season at 14-1 and then 27-10 near the completion of the first quarter of the season. The Indians held a substantial lead over Baltimore, but Leon Wagner was not Frank Robinson. Robby would go on to win the Triple Crown, and the Orioles would pass Cleveland with ease and go on to win the AL pennant in a breeze. The PiRate Ratings are Cleveland. Maybe, our 1954 is out there some day, but there is no reason to believe that it is this year.

Now, that we have a clear conscience, here are our picks for this week. Remember: we never wager real money on these selections, and we suggest you follow this lead. If you are a professional wagering maven, then we know you only read this weekly feature as supplemental information for your other research.

Selection #1: Iowa +10 1/2 vs. Michigan

This play is all about the number. At 9 1/2, we wouldn’t play it. We probably wouldn’t play it at 13 1/2 either. Michigan is clearly better than Iowa, but can they win by double digits in Iowa City when the Hawkeyes’ offense is starting to show signs of respectability? Iowa might be able to control the ball for 32 or more minutes in this game, and Michigan has played one above average team at home with no road games. At 10 1/2, we get 39% of the spreads most likely for a game to have, including nine of the top 15 spreads in college football. Our internal (not the PiRate Ratings) quick compare system shows this game to be a maximum of 8 points in Michigan’s favor and only about a 65% chance that the Maize and Blue will win the game by any amount. We see this being a 27-20 game for the Wolverines, and it wouldn’t be a big shock if Iowa pulled off the upset.

Selection #2: Penn State & Northwestern Under 52 1/2

James Franklin has this team believing in itself, and we have little doubt that the Nittany Lions will win this game with relative ease, but we also believe the first quarter and some of the second quarter of this game will be played conservatively as Penn State tries some new wrinkles. Northwestern’s history of being good in even-numbered years and rebuilding in odd-numbered years may have come to an end, as the Wildcats look no better than they were last year, and their win over Nebraska isn’t worth much. The NU offense isn’t likely to keep the scoreboard operator busy. We think this could be a 34-10 game, maybe a 38-7 game.

Selection #3: UNLV and New Mexico Over 42 1/2

This was a late addition to our selections this week, as the total dropped by a full point on Wednesday, and we think it has been moved too much. There are some middling plays going on with this game. At 43 1/2, it was too close to our projection of 28-17 and 45 points. Usually, we like a game to differ by three points or more in the total, but when it’s this low, 2 1/2 points are enough to make a play. The only concern is that the Lobos are scoring points of fewer than normal total yards gained. However, UNLV’s offense is better than New Mexico’s defense, and we also think there is a chance that the Rebels could score more then 28 points in this game.

Selection #4: Minnesota & Purdue Over 51 1/2

If you follow this weekly feature for any amount of time, you will probably see a trend toward playing the Under on more totals than the Over, but this week, it is an even split. We respect Minnesota’s excellent start to the season, but their defense has yet to be tested by a Power 5 competent offense, as it will this week. This isn’t Drew Brees bringing the Spoilermakers to The Cities, but this also isn’t the Bobby Bell Gophers of 1960 and 1961. Our internal rating shows PU will top 24 points in this game, but their lack of a power running game might prevent the Boilermakers from scoring the one extra TD needed to win this game. Minnesota probably will top 30 points. At 34-27, that’s 9 1/2 more points than needed to satisfy this play.

Selection #5: Oklahoma & TCU Under 68 1/2

This was actually the one total that jumped off the page when we first saw it. Oklahoma is coming off an upset loss to Kansas State where they gave up more than 40 points. TCU is averaging 46.3 points per game but hasn’t played a real defense yet. We suspect that defensive-oriented Sooner coach Brent Venables will concentrate his efforts this week on giving his defense more confidence by playing this game a little more conservatively. Meanwhile, TCU will experience some difficulty trying to consistently move the ball with short passing plays. We think the total for this game will be 60 or less. A final score of 34-21 is expected.

Selection #6: Money Line Parlay @ +176.22

Kent State over Ohio U

Wyoming over San Jose St.

The key game for us this week is the Wyoming-San Jose State game in Laramie. We believe the wrong team is favored. The Cowboys have been a different team at home in altitude as opposed to the road, and San Jose State is coming into a weather situation they have not had a chance to prepare for in the Bay Area. This game could be played in a windy rainstorm, possibly a thunderstorm, with a chance that it could be delayed one or more times. Wyoming has an advantage if the running game must be used more in the quarters where the wind is in the face of the offense. We are looking for Wyoming to win this one outright by 5 to 10 points.

We didn’t want to play Wyoming straight up for 11-10 odds, so we looked to a coupling game that would ramp it up to better than +130, and we found it in the Kent State-Ohio game. The Golden Flashes are at least 10 points better than the Bobcats, but the Money Line was only -450, and combining it with the underdog selection, it makes this parlay an attractive +176.22.

Selection #7: Money Line Parlay @ +157.22

Kansas State over Texas Tech

North Carolina over Virginia Tech

Western Kentucky over Troy

Both teams won big games last week in the Kansas State-Texas Tech match-up. But, the Red Raiders beat their most hated rival. TTU rarely gets the respect in the Lone Star State by the fans of the Longhorns. At the same time, Kansas State has used a big win over a ranked opponent to propel themselves to bigger and better things. Add in the factor that our internal rating shows the Wildcats to be nine points better, and this is an attractive part of a parlay for us.

Neither North Carolina nor Virginia Tech are going to go on big runs to finish with fat won-loss records this year. In fact, we think the Hokies are looking at 5-7 or even 4-8, while the Tar Heels are maybe looking at 7-5 and a minor bowl game. We are looking at a 35-28 win for Mack Brown’s squad.

In Bowling Green, Kentucky, the Hilltoppers have been known as a basketball school with a neat mascot, but their football team should not be overlooked this year. Following a 73-0 win over possibly the worst FBS team in Florida International, they step up to play another under-the-radar team in Troy. This used to be a fierce rivlary game when both were Sun Belt Conference members, and we expect a close, hard-fought game with a lot of offensive action. Our selection of WKU here comes about due to an old theorem of ours from the 1970s that states that when a team easily slaughters a weaker team in a home game one week and then plays at home again the following week, they tend to continue to play near the best of their abilities. We think WKU wins this close game, maybe by just a field goal to five points.

September 27, 2022

PiRate Ratings NFL Football–Week 4: Sept. 29-Oct. 3

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
CincinnatiMiami6.04.65.1
New Orleans Minnesota0.5-0.20.1
AtlantaCleveland-8.5-6.7-7.1
BaltimoreBuffalo-4.1-4.4-4.3
DallasWashington11.010.511.5
DetroitSeattle5.56.75.3
HoustonLA Chargers-7.2-6.0-6.0
IndianapolisTennessee5.44.65.6
N.Y. GiantsChicago4.44.64.5
PhiladelphiaJacksonville12.210.311.4
PittsburghN.Y. Jets7.77.08.4
CarolinaArizona0.70.40.5
Green BayNew England12.210.711.3
Las VegasDenver5.84.55.4
Tampa BayKansas City5.65.35.4
San FranciscoLA Rams2.02.12.4

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
CincinnatiMiami43.5
New Orleans Minnesota42.5
AtlantaCleveland48
BaltimoreBuffalo46.5
DallasWashington45.5
DetroitSeattle45
HoustonLA Chargers47
IndianapolisTennessee44.5
N.Y. GiantsChicago37
PhiladelphiaJacksonville45
PittsburghN.Y. Jets46.5
CarolinaArizona45
Green BayNew England42
Las VegasDenver42.5
Tampa BayKansas City50.5
San FranciscoLA Rams43

New Orleans vs. Minnesota Game played in London

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo111.9112.0112.1112.023.52-1
Miami102.2102.8102.7102.620.53-0
New England98.798.699.298.8211-2
N.Y. Jets93.694.193.093.624.51-2

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Cincinnati105.1104.4104.8104.8231-2
Baltimore104.8104.5104.8104.7232-1
Cleveland102.5101.5101.9102.022.52-1
Pittsburgh98.398.098.498.2221-2

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Indianapolis99.999.599.999.8221-1-1
Tennessee97.697.997.497.622.51-2
Jacksonville97.098.397.597.6222-1
Houston88.190.189.089.020.50-2-1

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City107.6107.1107.6107.4272-1
Las Vegas103.5103.3102.5103.1250-3
Denver100.6101.8100.1100.817.52-1
LA Chargers98.399.197.998.526.51-2

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Philadelphia106.2105.6105.9105.9233-0
Dallas104.3103.2104.2103.923.52-1
Washington95.895.195.295.4221-2
N.Y. Giants93.394.593.993.9192-1

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay107.9106.3107.5107.2212-1
Minnesota99.899.199.699.522.52-1
Detroit95.295.995.895.625.51-2
Chicago91.392.491.991.9182-1

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay110.2109.4110.0109.923.52-1
New Orleans100.398.999.799.6201-2
Carolina95.595.995.695.7211-2
Atlanta91.592.492.392.025.51-2

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
LA Rams104.6104.4104.3104.423.52-1
San Francisco103.6103.5103.8103.619.51-2
Arizona97.898.598.198.1241-2
Seattle92.792.193.592.819.51-2

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

Playoff Projection Seeds
AFC Seeding
1Buffalo
2Kansas City
3Cleveland
4Jacksonville
5Miami
6Baltimore
7Denver
NFC Seeding
1Philadelphia
2Green Bay
3LA Rams
4Tampa Bay
5Dallas
6Minnesota
7San Francisco

Wildcard Round
Kansas City over Denver
Baltimore over Cleveland
Miami over Jacksonville
Green Bay over San Francisco
Dallas over Minnesota
Tampa Bay over Dallas


Divisional Round
Buffalo over Baltimore
Miami over Kansas City
Philadelphia over Dallas
Tampa Bay over Green Bay


Conference Championship
Buffalo over Miami
Philadelphia over Tampa Bay


Super Bowl 57 (Glendale, AZ)
Phialdelphia over Buffalo

September 25, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Football–September 29-October 1

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:25 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
BYUUtah St.23.221.622.5
HoustonTulane3.12.84.0
Middle TennesseeUTSA-7.3-4.7-5.9
Boise St.San Diego St.7.36.67.5
UCLAWashington2.81.72.9
UNLVNew Mexico10.78.511.9
WisconsinIllinois11.310.112.1
Penn St.Northwestern25.123.926.9
Boston CollegeLouisville-10.6-8.3-10.9
Coastal CarolinaGeorgia Southern7.79.59.5
Florida St.Wake Forest10.410.410.5
ArmyGeorgia St.6.87.85.1
ClemsonNorth Carolina St.4.55.35.0
PittsburghGeorgia Tech25.825.126.4
MarylandMichigan St.1.32.53.0
DukeVirginia-8.9-6.5-9.5
North CarolinaVirginia Tech11.611.313.6
Old DominionLiberty-3.1-4.6-5.1
South FloridaEast Carolina-4.6-5.5-6.4
Central FloridaSMU4.96.35.4
Ball St.Northern Illinois-10.9-10.5-11.2
MinnesotaPurdue10.711.313.2
James MadisonTexas St.16.217.120.4
Air ForceNavy16.217.319.0
BaylorOklahoma St.1.01.50.8
KansasIowa St.-2.7-4.2-5.4
LouisianaSouth Alabama1.91.41.8
MemphisTemple20.218.322.0
TulsaCincinnati-12.1-12.1-13.4
Eastern MichiganMassachusetts16.616.819.3
UtahOregon St.10.39.911.4
New Mexico St.Florida Int’l.15.614.916.9
Washington St.California6.46.96.1
ArizonaColorado7.89.58.8
USCArizona St.13.914.914.5
OregonStanford14.516.415.9
Ole MissKentucky7.24.84.6
Kansas St.Texas Tech7.57.66.3
Ohio St.Rutgers33.032.437.0
Mississippi St.Texas A&M6.33.83.6
TCUOklahoma-3.8-4.1-4.6
IowaMichigan-7.4-7.3-9.0
TexasWest Virginia8.87.99.1
AuburnLSU-6.0-6.8-7.1
ArkansasAlabama-12.9-13.7-13.9
MissouriGeorgia-28.2-26.3-30.6
ToledoCentral Michigan3.42.62.2
BuffaloMiami (O)-4.3-4.5-4.8
ConnecticutFresno St.-20.6-19.0-24.0
AkronBowling Green-9.0-7.2-8.8
Kent St.Ohio9.29.28.3
Arkansas St.Louisiana-Monroe3.14.44.4
North TexasFlorida Atlantic-3.1-5.3-2.2
CharlotteUTEP-4.4-3.3-4.9
NebraskaIndiana3.54.04.8
Western KentuckyTroy11.611.112.3
RiceUAB-11.9-12.4-13.9
WyomingSan Jose St.-0.90.7-0.8

FBS vs. FCS Spreads

FBSFCSPiRate
Appalachian St.The Citadel32.4
FloridaEastern Washington27.4
MarshallGardner-Webb27.7
Western MichiganNew Hampshire20.4
South CarolinaSouth Carolina St.32.5
SyracuseWagner51.0

Teams With A Bye This Week

Colorado St.
Hawaii
Louisiana Tech
Miami (Fla.)
Nevada
Notre Dame
Southern Miss.
Tennessee
Vanderbilt

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

RankTeamRating
1Georgia132.8
2Alabama131.3
3Ohio St.130.9
4Michigan123.9
5Minnesota121.3
6Clemson118.5
7Oklahoma118.3
8Tennessee117.7
9Penn St.117.6
10Utah117.0
11Oklahoma St.116.8
12NC State116.6
13L S U115.3
14Ole Miss115.1
15Wisconsin115.0
16Baylor114.9
17Arkansas114.8
18Pittsburgh114.0
19Florida St.113.9
20Mississippi St.113.8
21Iowa113.0
22Oregon113.0
23Purdue112.6
24Cincinnati112.6
25Kentucky112.5
26U S C112.5
27Notre Dame112.5
28Texas A&M112.2
29Texas112.2
30Kansas St.112.0
31Michigan St.111.9
32T C U111.6
33Maryland111.1
34Miami (Fla.)110.3
35BYU110.2
36Louisville109.9
37Washington109.6
38Oregon St.109.5
39Iowa St.109.4
40U C L A109.1
41Syracuse107.9
42Texas Tech107.8
43South Carolina107.4
44West Virginia106.6
45UCF106.5
46Wake Forest106.5
47Florida106.4
48North Carolina106.2
49Illinois105.9
50Auburn105.6
51SMU104.0
52Washington St.103.6
53Air Force103.4
54Kansas102.3
55W. Kentucky102.1
56Fresno St.101.9
57Houston101.5
58Missouri101.4
59Virginia101.4
60Arizona St.101.1
61Tulane100.7
62Nebraska100.6
63Stanford100.4
64California100.1
65East Carolina100.0
66Rutgers99.8
67Indiana99.5
68Boise St.99.3
69U A B99.1
70Army98.6
71Appalachian St.98.6
72Memphis98.0
73Boston College97.4
74Virginia Tech97.1
75Tulsa97.0
76Coastal Carolina96.9
77U T S A96.8
78Liberty96.8
79James Madison96.6
80N. Illinois96.4
81Northwestern95.3
82San Diego St.95.2
83Arizona95.2
84Marshall94.8
85Georgia St.94.5
86Toledo94.5
87Central Mich.94.3
88Miami (Ohio)93.8
89Vanderbilt93.7
90Troy93.0
91South Alabama92.9
92Louisiana92.7
93U N L V92.1
94USF92.0
95Kent St.91.5
96San Jose St.91.3
97Georgia Tech91.2
98Duke90.6
99Old Dominion90.5
100Ga. Southern90.5
101Western Mich.90.3
102Florida Atlantic90.2
103Southern Miss.90.1
104Colorado89.5
105Utah St.89.3
106Navy88.9
107Middle Tennessee88.3
108Wyoming87.9
109Buffalo86.7
110U T E P86.6
111Bowling Green86.4
112Eastern Mich.85.6
113Nevada85.4
114Arkansas St.85.1
115Ohio85.1
116New Mexico84.2
117North Texas84.2
118Rice83.9
119UL-Monroe83.6
120Ball St.83.6
121Colorado St.81.6
122Texas St.81.2
123Louisiana Tech81.0
124Temple80.9
125Charlotte79.8
126Connecticut77.7
127Akron76.0
128New Mexico St.75.2
129Hawaii71.2
130Massachusetts70.6
131Florida Int’l.61.9

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Cincinnati112.2111.7113.8112.6
UCF106.1106.8106.7106.5
SMU104.3103.4104.3104.0
Houston101.7100.8102.0101.5
Tulane101.1100.5100.5100.7
East Carolina99.999.5100.6100.0
Memphis98.098.397.798.0
Tulsa97.296.697.397.0
USF92.891.591.792.0
Navy89.788.888.288.9
Temple80.883.078.780.9

AAC98.598.298.398.4

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Clemson118.5118.3118.8118.5
NC State117.0116.0116.8116.6
Florida St.114.1113.8113.9113.9
Louisville110.6109.5109.6109.9
Syracuse108.7107.6107.3107.9
Wake Forest106.7106.4106.4106.5
Boston College97.498.796.297.4

Coastal Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Pittsburgh114.9113.8113.4114.0
Miami (Fla.)110.8109.6110.4110.3
North Carolina106.3106.4106.1106.2
Virginia102.0102.0100.2101.4
Virginia Tech97.798.095.597.1
Georgia Tech92.191.790.091.2
Duke90.693.088.290.6

ACC106.2106.0105.2105.8

Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oklahoma118.7117.7118.6118.3
Oklahoma St.117.4115.9117.2116.8
Baylor115.4114.4115.0114.9
Texas112.9111.8111.8112.2
Kansas St.112.7111.4111.9112.0
T C U112.4111.1111.5111.6
Iowa St.109.3109.3109.5109.4
Texas Tech108.1106.8108.6107.8
West Virginia107.1106.9105.7106.6
Kansas103.7102.1101.1102.3

Big 12111.7110.7111.1111.2

Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.131.2129.7132.0130.9
Michigan124.4123.2124.2123.9
Penn St.117.7117.7117.6117.6
Michigan St.112.9111.7111.1111.9
Maryland111.2111.2111.1111.1
Rutgers101.1100.398.099.8
Indiana100.799.998.099.5

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Minnesota121.3120.8121.7121.3
Wisconsin115.5114.9114.6115.0
Iowa114.0112.9112.2113.0
Purdue113.6112.5111.5112.6
Illinois106.3106.9104.6105.9
Nebraska101.2100.999.8100.6
Northwestern95.696.793.795.3

Big Ten111.9111.4110.7111.3

Conference USA
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
W. Kentucky101.3101.4103.7102.1
U A B98.598.7100.199.1
U T S A97.395.997.296.8
Florida Atlantic89.891.189.890.2
Middle Tennessee87.588.788.888.3
U T E P86.786.386.686.6
North Texas84.283.385.184.2
Rice84.183.883.783.9
Louisiana Tech80.982.279.781.0
Charlotte79.780.579.379.8
Florida Int’l.61.664.259.961.9

CUSA86.586.986.786.7

FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Notre Dame112.9111.3113.2112.5
BYU110.8109.2110.6110.2
Army98.498.898.798.6
Liberty95.697.297.596.8
Connecticut78.279.175.877.7
New Mexico St.74.776.674.375.2
Massachusetts71.371.868.670.6

Independents91.792.091.291.6

Mid-American Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Miami (Ohio)92.194.794.593.8
Kent St.90.692.891.191.5
Buffalo85.387.787.286.7
Bowling Green87.085.986.286.4
Ohio83.986.085.385.1
Akron76.076.775.476.0

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
N. Illinois96.296.696.596.4
Toledo93.794.795.294.5
Central Mich.92.894.695.594.3
Western Mich.89.890.690.590.3
Eastern Mich.85.486.085.485.6
Ball St.83.384.283.383.6

MAC88.089.288.888.7

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Air Force102.9103.1104.3103.4
Boise St.99.598.599.999.3
Utah St.89.189.189.689.3
Wyoming86.788.988.287.9
New Mexico84.584.883.484.2
Colorado St.81.482.281.481.6

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Fresno St.101.8101.1102.8101.9
San Diego St.95.294.995.495.2
U N L V92.690.792.992.1
San Jose St.90.691.292.091.3
Nevada84.986.684.885.4
Hawaii70.771.971.171.2

MWC90.090.290.590.2

Pac-12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Utah116.8115.9118.5117.0
Oregon113.4112.8112.8113.0
U S C111.9112.5113.1112.5
Washington108.9109.8110.2109.6
Oregon St.109.4108.9110.1109.5
U C L A108.7108.6110.1109.1
Washington St.103.0103.7104.0103.6
Arizona St.101.0100.6101.6101.1
Stanford101.999.499.9100.4
California99.699.8101.0100.1
Arizona95.395.195.195.2
Colorado90.588.689.389.5

Pac-12105.0104.6105.5105.0

Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Georgia132.8131.4134.2132.8
Tennessee117.5117.6117.9117.7
Kentucky111.9112.6113.1112.5
South Carolina107.7106.9107.5107.4
Florida105.8107.3106.2106.4
Missouri101.6102.0100.6101.4
Vanderbilt93.994.792.493.7

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Alabama131.1130.3132.4131.3
L S U115.7115.0115.1115.3
Ole Miss116.2114.4114.7115.1
Arkansas115.2113.6115.5114.8
Mississippi St.114.7113.2113.5113.8
Texas A&M111.4112.3112.9112.2
Auburn106.7105.2105.0105.6

SEC113.0112.6112.9112.9

Sunbelt Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Appalachian St.97.298.899.698.6
Coastal Carolina95.697.197.996.9
James Madison94.396.399.296.6
Marshall94.495.394.794.8
Georgia St.94.193.496.194.5
Old Dominion90.590.690.490.5
Ga. Southern90.490.190.990.5

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Troy92.292.893.993.0
South Alabama92.192.893.992.9
Louisiana92.092.293.792.7
Southern Miss.89.790.390.390.1
Arkansas St.84.385.885.285.1
UL-Monroe83.783.983.383.6
Texas St.80.681.781.381.2

Sun Belt90.891.592.291.5

Conference Ratings

RankConferenceRating
1Southeastern112.9
2Big Ten111.3
3Big 12111.2
4Atlantic Coast105.8
5Pac-12105.0
6American Athletic98.4
7Independents91.6
8Sun Belt91.5
9Mountain West90.2
10Mid-American88.7
11Conference USA86.7

Coming In October

As October leads the College Football worlds into mostly conference play, it’s time to start looking ahead at the Playoffs and Bowl Projections. The PiRates do it a bit differently from others. We don’t make our projections based on what each team has done to the present time, like most others. We first forecast the rest of the season and then make our projections based on what we believe the standings will be. Additionally, we plan to do our best to explain the inexact rules for where teams can go. No longer can you look and see who will finish 3rd in a conference and then know where the 3rd place team is automatically slotted to go bowling. It’s more like the 1960’s, where the bowls can choose which teams they want with the help of the conferences that have the tie-ins. In the case of many bowls, multiple conferences can be in the mix, and ESPN can steer the teams into the bowls they want them to appear so as to attempt to get their maximum TV ratings.

This Week’s Playoff Projections

1.) Alabama

2.) Ohio State

3.) Georgia

4.) USC

Top Group of 5 (For The Cotton Bowl Bid)

1.) Cincinnati

2.) Central Florida

3.) Coastal Carolina

4.) Air Force

5.) Middle Tennessee

September 12, 2022

PiRate Ratings NFL Week 2, September 15-19, 2022

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:50 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
Kansas CityLA Chargers10.08.911.2
BaltimoreMiami8.37.48.0
ClevelandN.Y. Jets14.312.314.3
DetroitWashington-0.40.70.0
JacksonvilleIndianapolis-8.6-6.5-8.3
New OrleansTampa Bay-6.2-7.1-6.3
N.Y. GiantsCarolina1.12.11.8
PittsburghNew England2.32.01.9
LA RamsAtlanta18.617.718.2
San FranciscoSeattle11.712.010.4
DallasCincinnati2.31.93.0
DenverHouston15.214.514.2
Las VegasArizona9.79.08.7
Green BayChicago18.014.916.5
BuffaloTennessee14.414.114.7
PhiladelphiaMinnesota6.15.55.0

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
Kansas CityLA Chargers54
BaltimoreMiami39.5
ClevelandN.Y. Jets45.5
DetroitWashington46.5
JacksonvilleIndianapolis47
New OrleansTampa Bay46.5
N.Y. GiantsCarolina41
PittsburghNew England44
LA RamsAtlanta47.5
San FranciscoSeattle41.5
DallasCincinnati49
DenverHouston42
Las VegasArizona50
Green BayChicago40.5
BuffaloTennessee46
PhiladelphiaMinnesota48.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo110.8110.9111.0110.923.51-0
New England99.799.7100.499.9210-1
Miami99.299.799.399.4191-0
N.Y. Jets92.693.492.092.7240-1

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore104.5104.1104.4104.320.51-0
Cincinnati104.8103.9104.2104.324.50-1
Cleveland103.8102.7103.3103.321.51-0
Pittsburgh99.098.799.399.0231-0

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Indianapolis102.4101.7102.3102.1240-0-1
Tennessee99.499.899.399.522.50-1
Jacksonville90.892.291.191.4230-1
Houston88.290.288.889.021.50-0-1

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City108.3108.0108.9108.427.51-0
Las Vegas104.8104.7104.1104.5250-1
LA Chargers101.3102.1100.6101.426.51-0
Denver100.9102.2100.5101.220.50-1

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas104.1102.9104.1103.724.50-1
Philadelphia104.1103.1103.3103.5251-0
Washington97.496.997.297.2221-0
N.Y. Giants93.094.493.693.719.51-0

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay106.9105.0106.2106.0220-1
Minnesota101.1100.6101.4101.023.51-0
Detroit94.094.794.294.324.50-1
Chicago91.492.692.292.118.51-0

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay110.7110.1110.6110.525.51-0
New Orleans101.5100.0101.3100.9211-0
Carolina94.995.394.895.021.50-1
Atlanta89.990.890.390.3240-1

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
LA Rams105.6105.4105.4105.523.50-1
San Francisco102.9102.6102.8102.721.50-1
Arizona97.698.297.897.9250-1
Seattle94.193.695.494.4201-0

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1Buffalo
2Kansas City
3Pittsburgh
4Indianapolis
5LA Chargers
6Miami
7Cincinnati

NFC Seeding
1Tampa Bay
2LA Rams
3Minnesota
4Philadelphia
5New Orleans
6Green Bay
7Washington

Wildcard Round
Kansas City over Cincinnati
Miami over Pittsburgh
LA Chargers over Indianapolis
LA Rams over Washington
Minnesota over Green Bay
Philadelphia over New Orleans

Divisional Round
Buffalo over Miami
Kansas City over LA Chargers
Tampa Bay over Philadelphia
Minnesota over LA Rams

Conference Championship
Buffalo over Kansas City
Tampa Bay over Minnesota

Super Bowl 57 (Glendale, AZ)
Buffalo over Tampa Bay

August 18, 2022

Big Ten Conference Preview

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:00 am

Will the Big Ten Conference become the Big Billion? Rumors from multiple sources indicate that this league is on the precipice of signing a TV and media rights package that will be north of a billion dollars. This deal does not include Notre Dame. Should the Irish end up in this league, the Big Ten will dwarf even the SEC in money paid out per school.

USC and UCLA are set to join the league in two years. Whether other teams join as well is anybody’s guess.

Both divisions this year figure to have competitive races. Ohio State is the odds-on favorite to win the East and the league overall, but there are multiple teams capable of upsetting the Buckeyes. Michigan, Penn State, and Michigan State are strong once again, and it isn’t beyond the realm of possibility that at least one of these contenders upsets the Buckeyes.

Maryland has an easy out of conference schedule and has a good chance to gain bowl eligibility. Rutgers and Indiana will bring up the rear.

In the West, five different teams could contend for the division title. Purdue has the benefit of avoiding Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State from the East. Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa are all about equal in talent this year, while Nebraska could finally return to the plus side of .500. Illinois and Northwestern are one or more excellent recruiting classes away from being contenders.

Big Ten Preseason PiRate Ratings

East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.128.6126.6129.5128.2
Michigan123.6121.8123.4122.9
Michigan St.118.9117.3116.7117.6
Penn St.115.0114.5114.0114.5
Maryland110.2110.0109.7109.9
Indiana102.0101.499.0100.8
Rutgers101.3100.498.2100.0

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Wisconsin118.0117.3117.0117.5
Iowa117.4115.9115.4116.2
Purdue116.7115.6114.9115.8
Minnesota113.6113.0114.0113.5
Nebraska110.1110.1109.0109.7
Illinois103.0103.6101.1102.5
Northwestern99.7100.897.799.4

Big Ten112.7112.0111.4112.0

Preseason Official Big Ten Media Poll

Votes
#East1st PlaceOverall
1Ohio St.36252
2Michigan0203
3Penn St.0169
4Michigan St.0162
5Maryland0104
6Rutgers060
7Indiana058

#West1st PlaceOverall
1Wisconsin31246
2Iowa3198
3Minnesota2162
4Purdue0153
5Nebraska0123
6Illinois065
7Northwestern061

ChampionshipOverall
Ohio St.36

The PiRate Ratings are designed to look at just the next week’s schedule of games and not to use to look forward. Nevertheless, here are the predicted won-loss records for the league.

Predicted Won-Loss Records

EastConf.Overall
Ohio St.9-013-0
Michigan8-111-1
Penn St.6-38-4
Michigan St.6-39-3
Maryland3-66-6
Rutgers1-83-9
Indiana1-83-9

WestConf.Overall
Purdue7-210-3
Wisconsin6-39-3
Minnesota6-39-3
Iowa5-48-4
Nebraska4-56-6
Northwestern1-84-8
Illinois0-93-9

July 18, 2022

PiRate College Football Game Debuts

After months of planning and design, the makers of the PiRate Ratings have created a college football game that can be played by one person in solitaire mode or by two people in head-to-head mode. All teams have been designed to perform as they did in real life using the PiRate Ratings’ Strength of Schedule formula to adjust their statistics to account for quality of opposition.

If you played the Sports Illustrated and Avalon Hill games of Bowl Bound and Pay Dirt, you will find this game a little more strategically involved while a little easier to play, as it used standard dice to see the results.

For the low price of $8, we will send you a zip file with all the charts, rules, and a scoreboard and numbers that you can print out to keep track of the action. We also send you a blank statistics sheet so you can record the action for posterity.

All you need are the dice, or to use one of many different free online dice rollers available online.

Go to https://pirate-football.square.site/ to purchase.

Our debut college game is the 1960-1979 Best of the Big Ten Conference. Here are the teams included in this set.

1963 Illinois–The greatest linebacker of all time, Dick Butkus, played center as well and made All-American with a powerful team

1967 Indiana–One of the most exciting teams of all time, the “Cardiac Kids” kept pulling out late victories week after week until they won a trip to the Rose Bowl

1960 Iowa–Some computer formulas say the Hawkeyes were the best team in the nation, as they beat 7 ranked teams and finished 8-1

1973 Michigan–Bo Schembechler’s Wolverines went 10-0-1 but had to stay home for the Holidays thanks to the archaic Big Ten rules of the time

1966 Michigan St.–Duffy Daugherty stockpiled some of the best talent ever to appear on a Big Ten campus at the same time. Bubba Smith anchored a stellar defense, while Gene Washington stretched defenses with his quickness and deceptive moves

1960 Minnesota–Coach Murray Warmath played for General Robert Neyland at Tennessee and continued to follow the General’s philosophy of playing conservative football and waiting for the other team to make the mistakes. He had a great squad in 1960, featuring the multi-tooled Sandy Stephens, who was the starting quarterback, a starting defensive back, the team’s punter, and the top punt returner. Future All-Pro Bobby Bell led the defensive charge and also opened up running lanes as an offensive lineman

1962 Northwestern–Before he became a multiple national championship winning coach at Notre Dame, Ara Parseghian took the Wildcat to Number 1 in the polls for a couple weeks in 1962

1973 Ohio State–Woody Hayes had no trouble stockpiling talent, and he had it on both sides of the ball in 1973, as the Buckeyes went 10-0-1 with a 21-point win in the Rose Bowl

1967 Purdue–The Boilermakers split the conference championship, as Leroy Keyes may have deserved the Heisman Trophy with his ability to catch passes out of the backfield, run the sweep and off-tackle as competently as anybody in the game, and to pull up and throw a halfback option pass like a pro. Having future pro quarterback Mike Phipps made the offense click

1962 Wisconsin-The Badgers came within one close incomplete pass of coming back from a 42-14 deficit to win the Rose Bowl

February 6, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, February 6, 2022

HomeVisitorsSpread
GeorgetownProvidence-7.1
Ohio St.Maryland9.3
NiagaraIona-7.5
CanisiusManhattan1.5
Purdue Fort WayneGreen Bay8.1
Missouri St.Loyola Chicago0.5
QuinnipiacMonmouth-4.7
Saint Peter’sMarist4.0
FairfieldSiena7.2
Cleveland St.Milwaukee10.4
San Diego St.Nevada11.2
StanfordWashington5.9
Miami (O)Akron-0.7
IowaMinnesota11.0
CincinnatiHouston-8.1
Fresno St.Wyoming2.0

January 30, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, January 30, 2022

HomeVisitorsSpread
BrownCornell4.5
PurdueOhio St.9.2
East CarolinaCincinnati-5.9
Wright St.Purdue Fort Wayne4.4
Northern KentuckyCleveland St.-1.4
George WashingtonFordham-1.5
ProvidenceMarquette1.1
WisconsinMinnesota9.2
Fairleigh DickinsonCentral Connecticut1.3
BryantLong Island5.1
IonaSaint Peter’s11.1
Morgan St.Delaware St.14.1
St. Francis (NY)Wagner-11.8
DrakeLoyola (Chi.)-3.2
BradleyIndiana St.7.9
MassachusettsGeorge Mason8.7
SienaQuinnipiac0.4
ManhattanMarist-2.0
MonmouthNiagara8.5
RiderCanisius1.9
Boston CollegePittsburgh4.0
Southern IllinoisValparaiso5.8
BucknellLoyola (MD)-3.9
McNeese St.New Orleans0.7
Washington St.Colorado5.8

January 16, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, January 16, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 4:00 am
HomeVisitorsSpread
VillanovaButler16.8
Ohio St.Penn St.8.7
Wichita St.Cincinnati2.5
Boston UNavy-0.8
MaineBinghamton-3.8
IonaNiagara10.4
LafayetteArmy-2.1
AmericanBucknell1.3
MaristMonmouth-3.5
QuinnipiacFairfield-0.7
ManhattanCanisius4.0
RiderSaint Peter’s-2.0
MinnesotaIowa-4.4
Southern Miss.Louisiana Tech-13.5
St. John’sGeorgetown9.1
LehighLoyola (MD)-1.8
Illinois St.Bradley-2.9

January 9, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, January 9, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 4:00 am
HomeVisitorsSpread
IndianaMinnesota9.9
HarvardYale1.1
EvansvilleIllinois St.-0.5
MemphisCincinnati8.3
ColoradoWashington8.2
Ohio St.Northwestern7.6
MarylandWisconsin-0.4
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