PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 23, 2020

Games Being Played Thursday

Home	Visitor	Spread
UNC Asheville	Radford	-4.4
Ohio St.	Minnesota	7.7
Hofstra	Delaware	6.7
Stetson	NJIT	-0.1
Kennesaw St.	North Alabama	-6.1
William & Mary	James Madison	10.2
Cleveland St.	Green Bay	-3.1
Detroit	IUPUI	7.0
Winthrop	USC Upstate	16.3
Northeastern	Drexel	7.4
Oakland	Illinois Chicago	5.7
Youngstown St	Milwaukee	3.6
Murray St.	Belmont	-1.1
High Point	Gardner-Webb	-6.5
Old Dominion	Florida Intl.	3.0
Central Connecticut	Sacred Heart	-13.4
Merrimack	Fairleigh Dickinson	7.4
Long Island	St. Francis (PA)	0.6
St. Francis (NY)	Robert Morris	-3.2
North Florida	Liberty	-4.9
Charlotte	Florida Atlantic	4.9
Bryant	Wagner	8.7
Hampton	Campbell	-2.3
Elon	Towson	-5.8
Lipscomb	Jacksonville	2.2
Charleston Southern	Presbyterian	5.9
Middle Tennessee	Louisiana Tech	-12.0
North Texas	UTSA	10.1
Rice	UTEP	-2.0
Arkansas St.	South Alabama	0.2
Omaha	Western Illinois	11.6
South Dakota	Purdue Fort Wayne	7.1
Utah	Washington	-3.4
North Dakota	Denver	9.3
UAB	Southern Miss	8.7
Indiana	Michigan St.	-3.4
Austin Peay	Tennessee St.	7.5
Missouri St.	Valparaiso	3.4
SIU-Edwardsville	SEMO	0.8
Tennessee Tech	Morehead St.	-3.2
Eastern Illinois	UT-Martin	8.9
Jacksonville St.	Eastern Kentucky	8.8
Grand Canyon	Seattle	1.6
Idaho St.	Montana	-1.8
Weber St.	Montana St.	0.2
Houston	UConn	9.1
Colorado	Washington St.	12.8
Loyola Marymount	Portland	5.6
Santa Clara	Pepperdine	3.8
Cal St. Bakersfield	Utah Valley	6.2

 

Interesting Analytics

Every year at this time, the PiRates begin looking at some of the advanced analytics that we have used to gauge potential NCAA Tournament success.

Our R+T Rating ™, is our personal creation that attempts to predict how many more opportunities to score a team might have in a game as compared to an average team.  It relies on rebounding margin and turnover margin with an added emphasis on steals and protecting the ball from being stolen by the other team.  It attempts to estimate the potential extra points available to the team due to the “hustle stats.”

In the past, when a team has an R+T of 15.0 or better, that team has the ability to score on enough extra opportunities to go on a big spurt and put another team away.  When UCLA was the dominant basketball team during John Wooden’s runs, their R+T stats were always at the top of the nation.  When they had the 1964 small lineup that went 30-0, the 2-2-1 zone press created turnover after turnover by the opponent with a lot of steals.  These extra opportunities prevented the other team from scoring, but they also led to easy fast break points, and the Bruins had incredible scoring spurts in every game, the most famous being the incredible 16-0 run in just over two minutes before halftime that put NCAA Championship Game with Duke out of reach.

The Lew Alcindor (Kareem Abdul Jabbar) and Bill Walton years saw the Bruins totally dominating on the glass while still getting a nice number of steals and forcing turnovers.  These UCLA teams frequently had 20 extra scoring opportunities a game, and with Jabbar and Walton both hitting better than 60% from the field, the Bruins were unstoppable.

Long after UCLA won those 10 titles, the ability to get extra scoring opportunities has remained consistently and vitally important in NCAA Tournament games.  To get to the Big Dance, teams must display an ability to play very tough defense, and teams with good offenses and little else become pretenders when every opponent they face will play much better defense than the average opponent in the regular season.  Thus, the ability to create extra scoring opportunities and the ability to prevent extra scoring opportunities take precedence over just being able to shoot the ball more accurately than the opponent.

Obviously, we do not throw the baby out with the bath water.  Shooting is still quite important.  After all, the object of the game is to put the ball in the basket more than the other team.  If a team gets 10 more chances to put the ball in the basket, but they shoot like our Captain trying to putt at Pebble Beach, 30 more chances might not be enough to overcome the inaccurate marksmanship.  Obviously, shooting ability and ability to prevent made shots remain important.

Then, there is the third key factor.  If State only plays Southeast Northwest Community College and similar teams, they will inevitably end up with impressive stats.  If Tech plays Kansas, Duke, Maryland, Oregon, and Kentucky out of conference, it is going to be difficult, make that impossible, to end up with stats as impressive at State.  Thus strength of schedule must play as important a roll as the other two stats.  Think of schedule strength in the same vein as class in thoroughbred horse racing, where a winner of a claiming race is not going to compete well against the fifth place winner from a Grade 1 Classic race, even if in the last two races, their times for 1 1/8 miles were about the same.

Let’s put all three key stats together and look at a sampling of teams that are producing quality numbers across the board.

 

Team	R+T	TS%	SOS
Baylor	19.1	5.8	55.1
Butler	15.2	8.8	57.2
UC-Irvine	20.2	5.6	50.4
Duke	21.5	8.4	55.7
Gonzaga	27.7	10.1	49.0
Houston	25.5	4.2	54.4
Illinois	22.2	6.2	55.4
Indiana	20.6	3.2	54.7
Kansas	18.5	10.9	62.7
Kentucky	16.2	8.3	52.2
Liberty	15.9	12.6	43.4
Louisiana State	16.9	6.6	54.4
Maryland	16.7	5.2	58.4
Michigan State	21.6	10.2	57.7
New Mexico State	18.3	4.3	49.3
Oral Roberts	16.3	2.1	53.6
Rutgers	19.7	6.2	55.7
San Diego State	18.4	9.9	49.6
Southern Utah	15.7	8	48.2
Stephen F. Austin	22.5	2.9	42.7
Utah State	20.8	6.5	52.3
West Virginia	21.7	5.9	58.8

What you see above are the R+T ratings for 22 teams in column 1.  The formula for R+T is:  (R * 2) + (S * .5) + (6 – Opp S) + T, where R is rebounding margin per game, S is steals per game, Opp S is opponents’ steals per game, and T is turnover margin (Opponents Turnovers minus Teams’  Turnovers divided by games played).

Another excellent formula that estimates extra scoring chances per game is the formula by the brilliant Jordan Sperber, creator of Hoop Vision.  Jordan’s formula is: (Team’s OEff)-((100.9/49.0)*(Team’s eFG%)),  where OEff is offensive efficiency, the number 100.9 represents the average Division 1 team’s offensive efficiency, the number 49.0 represents the average Division 1 team’s effective FG%, and eFG% is effective FG%.  The result represents the extra chances to utilize effective FG%, and like everything else Jordan does, it is a great tool.  By the way, Jordan has worked for my number one rated Mid-Major coach of last year (Eric Musselman), and my number one rated Mid-Major coach of this year (Chris Jans).  His analytics have helped both coaches strategize the way they coach.  Check out Jordan’s website at: https://hoopvision.substack.com

In column 2 above, you see TS%.  This stands for true shooting percentage, which in this case actually stands for the difference in the team’s offensive TS% and the defensive TS%.  To calculate TS%, the formula is: (100 * points scored) /  (2 * [FG Attempts + {.475 * FT Attempts}]) 

The final column represents strength of schedule.  50 is considered an average schedule strength.  55 is considered a strong schedule strength.  60 is considered a tough schedule strength.  Below 45 is considered too weak to consider a team a legitimate contender in the Big Dance.

Gonzaga has the top R+T rating in the nation at the present time.  Their TS% difference is in the top 10, so the Bulldogs should be considered a key contender to run the table in the NCAA Tournament this year, correct?  No, that is not correct.  Gonzaga’s strength of schedule (SOS) is too low.  At 49.0, the other two stats must be discounted.  Gonzaga’s remaining schedule will not give the Bulldogs enough increase in SOS to take their R+T and TS% stats seriously.  This does not mean they will lose to a 16-seed in the first game.  What it means is that when they get to the Sweet 16 and face an opponent with a better SOS and strong R+T and TS%, they will be ripe for the upset.

Baylor, Butler, Duke, Illinois, Kansas, Maryland, Michigan State, Rutgers, and West Virginia have the best resumes today.  They have excellent R+T, TS%, and SOS numbers.  It should be no surprise that the Big 12 and Big Ten are the two best conferences so far this season.  

Kentucky and LSU fall just short of the elites in this test.  Neither team has the important 55 or better SOS mark, although both teams could eventually get over that key number.

Among the mid-major teams to keep an eye on, there are four teams in the West that could be sleepers for the Sweet 16 if they make the dance.  UC-Irvine, New Mexico State, Southern Utah, and Utah State all have strong R+T and TS% numbers with SOS that isn’t totally weak.  Contrast that to Liberty and Stephen F. Austin, two teams where the schedule strength doesn’t cut it.

Then, there are two teams high in the rankings from the lower tier of major conferences.  Houston and San Diego State have excellent numbers, but their schedule strengths make them both on the outside looking in when compared to the power conference teams.  Frequently, teams like these two can make a run to the second weekend of the tournament, and once or twice a decade, they will sneak into the Final Four.  However, when it comes to cut the nets and hear “One Shining Moment,” the happy team is one that comes from one of the top 5 power conferences.

As of today, the top 5 power conferences are: The Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, Atlantic Coast, and Southeastern Conferences.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 19, 2020

Division 1 Basketball Games on Sunday

 

Home	Visitor	Spread
Canisius	Rider	-0.8
Chicago State	Cal St. Bakersfield	-15.8
Cincinnati	East Carolina	16.9
Fordham	Davidson	-7.4
Illinois State	Loyola (Chi.)	-4.9
Maine	Binghamton	1.8
Marist	Iona	-4.5
Niagara	Siena	-2.2
North Dakota State	North Dakota	7.4
Rutgers	Minnesota	3.9
South Dakota	South Dakota State	-1.3
Southern Illinois	Drake	0.1
UCLA	California	6.5
UMKC	Grand Canyon	3.3
Wake Forest	Boston College	6.7

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 9, 2020

Power Conference Games & Top 25 Teams Playing Thursday

 

Home	Visitor	Spread
Michigan	Purdue	5.1
Wichita St.	Memphis	2.5
Michigan St.	Minnesota	12.1
Oregon	Arizona	1.2
Stanford	Washington	1.7
California	Washington St.	-0.1
Oregon St.	Arizona St.	4.7
Saint Mary’s	BYU	2.3

 

Coming Tomorrow–Updated Ratings and Bracketology

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 2, 2020

Power Conference & Top 25 Teams Playing Thursday

 

Home	Visitor	Spread
Purdue	Minnesota	5.7
Michigan St.	Illinois	11.2
La Salle	Dayton	-11.3
Utah	Oregon St.	-0.1
Colorado	Oregon	-0.7
Portland	Gonzaga	-22.3
Washington	UCLA	10.3
Washington St.	USC	-2.8
Stanford	California	11.2
San Francisco	Saint Mary’s	-3.5

 

Note 1–We have been asked to explain the spread and when it is positive or negative.  When the spread is positive, the home team is favored by the amount shown.  When the spread is negative, the visiting team is favored by the amount shown.

Note 2–While we basically just issue spreads for games involving opponents from the power conferences or teams in the top 25 of the rankings, our ratings are easily usable for all Division 1 teams and all Division 1 games.  Simply subtract the visiting team power rating from the home team, and add 2 to 6 points for home court advantage.  For a typical mid-major or low-major team, the home court advantage will be 2.5 to 3.5 points. 

For a typical power conference team, the home court advantage will be 3 to 5 points.  For a team with an incredible home court advantage like Gonzaga, Kentucky, and Kansas, use 5 to 6 points.  These numbers can fluctuate based on the opponent.  For instance, if Kansas State visits Kansas, the home court advantage is reduced, because the trip is not taxing to the Wildcats.  To the contrary, if a school like Vermont hosts a team from the West Coast, their regular 3.5 point advantage might be moved to 4.5 or even 5 points.

Updated Ratings will be published Friday around Noon in the Eastern Time Zone.

Also, a new Bracketology list will be published Friday afternoon.

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 15: December 12-16, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Margins

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Baltimore	N. Y. Jets	19.3	18.9	20.6
Detroit	Tampa Bay	1.2	-1.8	-2.0
Washington	Philadelphia	-6.6	-4.1	-4.0
Green Bay	Chicago	1.0	3.5	3.6
Cincinnati	New England	-12.2	-12.8	-11.9
Tennessee	Houston	4.0	4.3	4.7
Carolina	Seattle	-5.0	-5.0	-5.0
Kansas City	Denver	7.8	8.0	8.0
N. Y. Giants	Miami	5.7	5.5	5.8
Buffalo	Pittsburgh	5.3	5.7	5.2
Oakland	Jacksonville	4.1	4.0	4.3
Arizona	Cleveland	-3.9	-4.1	-3.6
San Francisco	Atlanta	13.7	14.5	15.3
Dallas	LA Rams	-1.5	-0.2	-1.2
LA Chargers	Minnesota	0.1	1.3	0.4
New Orleans	Indianapolis	11.2	8.3	9.2

 

Totals

Home	Visitor	Total
Baltimore	N. Y. Jets	45.5
Detroit	Tampa Bay	53.5
Washington	Philadelphia	42
Green Bay	Chicago	42.5
Cincinnati	New England	42
Tennessee	Houston	44.5
Carolina	Seattle	50
Kansas City	Denver	50
N. Y. Giants	Miami	52
Buffalo	Pittsburgh	37.5
Oakland	Jacksonville	43.5
Arizona	Cleveland	47
San Francisco	Atlanta	51.5
Dallas	LA Rams	47
LA Chargers	Minnesota	44
New Orleans	Indianapolis	50

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	107.8	108.4	107.8	108.0	19.5	10-3
Buffalo	101.8	102.8	102.8	102.5	17.5	9-4
N. Y. Jets	94.5	95.1	94.1	94.6	21	5-8
Miami	89.7	90.0	89.9	89.9	27.5	3-10
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	111.3	111.4	112.2	111.7	24.5	11-2
Pittsburgh	99.5	100.1	100.6	100.0	20	8-5
Cleveland	99.2	99.5	99.5	99.4	23	6-7
Cincinnati	93.2	93.1	93.4	93.2	22.5	1-12
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Tennessee	102.5	103.0	103.1	102.9	20.5	8-5
Houston	101.5	101.7	101.4	101.6	24	8-5
Indianapolis	99.1	100.1	99.6	99.6	23.5	6-7
Jacksonville	90.7	90.7	90.5	90.6	18	4-9
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	104.4	105.1	104.9	104.8	30.5	9-4
LA Chargers	104.1	104.0	103.4	103.8	22	5-8
Denver	99.7	100.1	99.9	99.9	19.5	5-8
Oakland	91.8	91.7	91.8	91.8	25.5	6-7
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	102.6	102.9	102.4	102.6	22	6-7
Philadelphia	101.0	99.4	99.0	99.8	24	6-7
N.Y. Giants	92.9	93.0	93.2	93.0	24.5	2-11
Washington	91.9	92.8	92.5	92.4	18	3-10
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	106.5	105.2	105.4	105.7	22	9-4
Green Bay	101.7	101.8	102.0	101.8	24.5	10-3
Chicago	103.2	100.8	100.9	101.6	18	7-6
Detroit	97.3	95.8	95.9	96.4	23.5	3-9-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	107.3	105.4	105.8	106.2	26.5	10-3
Tampa Bay	99.1	100.6	101.0	100.2	30	6-7
Atlanta	98.6	98.7	98.4	98.5	26	4-9
Carolina	95.2	95.0	95.2	95.1	26	5-8
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
San Francisco	109.3	110.2	110.7	110.1	25.5	11-2
LA Rams	106.6	105.6	106.1	106.1	25	8-5
Seattle	103.2	103.0	103.2	103.1	24	10-3
Arizona	92.8	92.9	93.4	93.0	24	3-9-1

 

The NFL Playoff Scenarios

There are numerous Playoff scenarios that can still greatly affect the remaining teams in the Playoff hunt.  After the end of Week 15, the scenarios will be easier to describe, and of course after Week 16, it will be cut and dry.  For now, here are the basics–just who wins in each scenario without going into explanations about which tiebreaker causes it.

 

Division Championships

 

AFC

If Buffalo wins at New England, and the teams finish tied for first, New England is AFC East Champs.

If Pittsburgh wins out and Baltimore loses out to finish tied at 11-5, Pittsburgh wins the AFC North Division.

If Houston and Tennessee finished tied at 10-6 or 9-7, Houston wins the AFC South Division.

Should Houston and Tennessee both finish 9-7, and Indianapolis wins their remaining three games to finish 9-7, Indianapolis would win the AFC South in a three-way tie.  Houston and Tennessee must split their two games and then lose the other game to both finish 9-7.

Kansas City has already clinched the AFC West Division.

 

NFC

If Dallas and Philadelphia finished tied at 8-8 or 7-9, Dallas wins the NFC East.

If Green Bay and Minnesota finish tied at 12-4 with Minnesota winning versus the Packers in Week 16, Green Bay wins the NFC North Division. If they both finish tied at 11-5, with Green Bay losing to either Chicago or Detroit plus Minnesota, then Minnesota wins the division.

If Chicago, Minnesota, and Green Bay finish in a three-way tie at 10-6, then Chicago wins the NFC North.

New Orleans has already clinched the NFC South.

If Seattle beats San Francisco in Week 17, and the two teams finish in a tie for first at 12-4, Seattle wins the NFC West Division. Seattle also wins a three-way tie with the 49ers and LA Rams for first at 11-5.

There is no scenario where the LA Rams can win the division, because if they win out to finish 11-5, then if San Francisco loses out to finish 11-5, that means Seattle will have had to win their Week 17 game with San Francisco to make then also 11-5, where they hold the tiebreaker.

Wildcards

 

AFC

The Wildcard tiebreaker would come into play with three non-division winners ending with 10-6 or 9-7 records.

At 10-6, Pittsburgh and Buffalo would earn the Wildcards, while Tennessee would be eliminated at 10-6. If the three teams were 9-7, then Pittsburgh and Tennessee would earn the Wildcards, while Buffalo would be eliminated.

If New England were to lose out finishing tied at 10-6 with Tennessee and Pittsburgh,  while Buffalo wins the AFC East, then The Patriots miss the Playoffs while the Titans and Steelers are the Wildcards.

NFC

There is only a minor chance that the San Francisco 49ers or Seattle Seahawks would miss the Playoffs altogether. The 49ers would have to lose all three remaining games to have a very remote chance of missing the Playoffs, and the Seahawks would have to finish behind the Rams in the standings while finishing tied with the Bears at 10-6 to miss the Playoffs. For the 49ers to miss the Playoffs at 10-6, Minnesota and Los Angeles would have to finish 11-5 and Green Bay would have to finish 12-4 or 13-3. For the sake of making this a lot easier, let’s put both Seattle and San Francisco in the Playoffs, one as division champion and one as a wildcard, since the chance for both teams making the Playoffs is better than 97%.

The final wildcard spot would be up for grabs between Minnesota, Los Angeles, and Chicago. Since the Bears can only improve to 10-6 by winning out, let’s show the tiebreakers at 10-6. If Minnesota, Chicago, and Los Angeles all finish 10-6, then the Rams make it a trio from the NFC West in the Playoffs. Los Angeles also wins a tiebreaker at 11-5 with Minnesota.

The Rams also win the tiebreaker with Green Bay if Minnesota wins the North, and the Packers and Rams both finish 10-6.

The Bears can earn the Wildcard if they win out to finish 10-6 and LA finishes 9-7 or 8-8, while either Minnesota or Green Bay also finishes 10-6.

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Picks For November 14-18, 2019

Your 1962 New York Mets of Selections

The lovable 1962 New York Mets won 40 games in their initial season in Major League Baseball.  There were a couple of star players, and the rest of the roster belonged in the International League.  

That’s how our selections have fared this year.  A couple of times, we came up with some incredible wins on some long shot picks, but the rest of the time, our picks belonged in the bush leagues.

The good thing about the Mets was that eventually 1969 came, and they performed miracles in winning the World Series.  Of course, having player development that brought them Tom Seaver, Jerry Koosman, Nolan Ryan, Cleon Jones, Jerry Grote, and Bud Harrelson, as well as some nice acquisitions in Tommie Agee and Donn Clendenon, made their roster quite strong.  The PiRate Ratings have not developed any young talent in the last few weeks with hopes that a wagering week like 1969 will create a second miracle.

On the other hand, this has historically been the week that our ratings have enjoyed the most over the last 10 years.  The third week of November has brought us our highest return on imaginary investment (our picks are for entertainment purposes and never actually wagered on by us) of the season.

Three years ago, we hit on some outrageous parlays and outright picks against the spread, making a slight ROI on the year into a windfall profit margin.  Two years ago, we turned a slight deficit on the year into a nice profit that when combined with the bowl season gave us another year in the black.  Last year, we went from large deficit to almost break even after this week.

You can see the trend.  Every year, this week turned the momentum in our direction, but each year, this week reversed more malaise than the previous season.  In 2019, we find ourselves so deep in the whole that even the best ever finish on this week will still leave us well in the red.

So, remember, even though  this week has been rather successful for us in the past, please DO NOT WAGER your money on what you will read below.  If we have not faith in these picks, why should you?

Disclaimer: This does not apply to those handful of Smarts that somehow take our spreads and other data and make money off them somehow in Nevada and in the Caribbean.  How you do it, we do not know.  But, we do know that a group of Smarts uses our ratings and consistently beats the books.  

This week, we are going to issue a few less choices overall, but this is because we feel the heat on us.  This has been a winning week so many times for us that we spent an extra 10 minutes or so per selection looking them over.  We found a couple of special teasers that cross over the important spread numbers.  We isolated on some money line parlays that we feel strong about.

As for our experimental Davey19 system, the biggest difference in the line and its predicted score just so happened to pop up this week.  There is a reason for this.  The oddsmakers definitely consider psychological factors when making the line.  Davey19 has no personality.  Davey is a computer program with no emotion.  

What game are we talking about?  The Iowa-Minnesota game in Iowa City has the Gophers playing on the road in a tough environment coming off their monumental home win over Penn State.  The oddsmakers have Iowa favored in this game as a trap for Minnesota.  Davey19 strictly picks games when its experimental spread differs from the line by more than 3.5 points.  Davey19 says Minnesota is a touchdown better than Iowa at Kinnick Stadium.  That’s a full 10 points different.  Minnesota might indeed suffer a letdown, but 10 points of letdown is a lot.  And, the Gophers aren’t just playing a game following an upset win.  They have a lot more to play for now.  They have the Playoffs in their sites, and for now, every game is the biggest game in school history since Sandy Stephens, Roger Hagberg, and Bobby Bell played for the #3 Gophers against #1 Iowa in 1960.  Yes, this is the biggest game in Minnesota history since they played Iowas 59 years ago and basically secured the national championship with a convincing win over the #1 team.

Without further adieu, here are our picks for the week.

 

PiRate Picks

College Money Line Parlays

 

#1–3 Games at +142

Winner	Loser
Virginia Tech	Georgia Tech
Georgia Southern	UL-Monroe
Middle Tennessee	Rice

 

#2–3 Games at +148

Winner	Loser
Marshall	Louisiana Tech
Florida	Missouri
Kansas St.	West Virginia

 

#3–4 Games at +133

Winner	Loser
Michigan	Michigan St.
Kentucky	Vanderbilt
Duke	Syracuse
Texas A&M	South Carolina

 

#4–2 Games at +134

Winner	Loser
Notre Dame	Navy
Georgia	Auburn

 

#5–3 Games at +151

Winner	Loser
Memphis	Houston
Air Force	Colorado St.
Louisville	N. Carolina St.

 

NFL 10-Point Teaser

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Minnesota	Denver	0.5	Minnesota
Oakland	Cincinnati	0.5	Oakland
Chicago	LA Rams	3.5	LA Rams

 

NFL 13-Point Teaser

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Cleveland	Pittsburgh	16	Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay	New Orleans	7.5	New Orleans
Atlanta	Carolina	7.5	Carolina
Washington	N.Y. Jets	14.5	N.Y. Jets

 

Davey19

An Experimental College Football Selection System

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Fresno St.	San Diego St.	1	San Diego St.
Ball St.	Central Michigan	2.5	Ball St.
USC	California	6.5	USC
TCU	Texas Tech	3.5	Texas Tech
Southern Miss.	UTSA	17	UTSA
LSU	Ole Miss	21	Ole Miss
Iowa	Minnesota	3	Minnesota

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Picks For November 7-11, 2019

Welcome to Thursday Comedy Relief.  It’s official now: this is the worst season in the 21st Century for PiRate Picks.  As we always tell you, these picks are free and maybe not worth what you pay for them.  In past years, we have had better access to information that has been unavailable to us, and so these picks are not going to be as reliable as when we were actually winning consistently.

We know that some of you reading this have discovered the little “secret” system in our regular weekly ratings that through super computer programming, you can come up with a half-dozen or so picks that are rewarding you with better than 62% wins.  It’s so secret, that we do not know the real particulars, and we unwisely recommended that you not tell us how you are doing it, because it might be too tempting to try it ourselves and then lose our mortgage payments (figuratively, since we burned our mortgage some time ago).

This is the absolute best week for college football to date.  This week’s games between Alabama and LSU, preceded by Minnesota and Penn State, and including Baylor-TCU, Iowa State-Oklahoma, and even including the best FCS game of the year and the celebration of the 150th anniversary of college football–undefeated Princeton versus undefeated Dartmouth at Yankee Stadium, we know that a lot of you love to add a little excitement when watching these top games.

Please, please, please, disregard our selections when considering whether or not you will wager on these games.  We are hitting 48% in our selections this year.  That’s total crappy status.  You cannot win at 48%, because even if you wager the exact opposite, at 52% you still lose.  None of your reading this feature are one of those folks with the supercomputer winning on 63+% of the wagers that our ratings somehow pop up 6-10 games per week, and our selections below are not part of that system.

 

This Week’s PiRate Picks

College Games

10-point Teasers

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Florida St.	Boston College	11	Boston College
Ohio St.	Maryland	32	Ohio St.
Michigan St.	Illinois	24.5	Illinois
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Florida	Vanderbilt	16.5	Florida
Ole Miss	N. Mexico St.	38.5	N. Mexico St.
Kentucky	Tennessee	11	Tennessee
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Georgia	Ole Miss	6.5	Georgia
Virginia	Georgia Tech	26	Georgia Tech
BYU	Liberty	27	Liberty

 

13-Point Teasers

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Texas Tech	West Virginia	15.5	West Virginia
Miami (Fla.)	Louisville	19.5	Louisville
Wake Forest	Virginia Tech	15.5	Virginia Tech
Penn St.	Minnesota	20	Minnesota
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Northwestern	Purdue	15.5	Purdue
Charlotte	UTEP	Pk	Charlotte
Baylor	TCU	10.5	TCU
Oklahoma	Iowa St.	1.5	Oklahoma

 

College Money Line Parlay –4 games at +268

 

Winner	Loser
Louisiana Tech	North Texas
Fresno St.	Utah St.
Notre Dame	Duke
Washington	Oregon St.

 

NFL Games

13-Point Teasers

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
LA Chargers	Oakland	14.5	Oakland
New Orleans	Atlanta	Pk	New Orleans
Cincinnati	Baltimore	3	Baltimore
Carolina	Green Bay	8	Green Bay
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Chicago	Detroit	15.5	Detroit
Miami	Indianapolis	2.5	Indianapolis
N.Y. Jets	N.Y. Giants	10.5	N.Y. Giants
Tampa Bay	Arizona	17.5	Arizona

 

Money Line Parlay –2 Games at +149

 

Winner	Loser
N.Y. Giants	N.Y. Jets
Green Bay	Carolina

 

 

Davey19 Experimental Picks

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Louisiana	Coastal Carolina	14.5	Coastal Carolina
Michigan St.	Illinois	15	Illinois
Boise St.	Wyoming	13.5	Wyoming
Alabama	LSU	5.5	Alabama
Troy	Georgia Southern	3	Georgia Southern
Kentucky	Tennessee	1	Tennessee
Louisiana Tech	North Texas	5	Louisiana Tech

 

 

PiRate College Football Ratings: November 3, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday	November 5
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Toledo	Kent St.	2.8	3.2	3.2
Western Michigan	Ball St.	10.9	10.5	10.8
Wednesday	November 6
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Ohio U	Miami (O)	7.4	7.8	7.5
Thursday	November 7
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Coastal Carolina	Louisiana	-11.7	-10.7	-12.1
South Florida	Temple	-3.9	-1.8	-4.3
Friday	November 8
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Oregon St.	Washington	-11.6	-10.2	-12.9
Tulsa	Central Florida	-18.6	-17.1	-18.3
Saturday	November 9
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Alabama	LSU	9.2	8.4	9.9
Arizona St.	USC	2.9	1.8	3.1
Arkansas	Western Kentucky	5.8	5.1	3.9
Army	Massachusetts	38.5	36.9	39.1
Boise St.	Wyoming	9.9	7.7	9.6
Boston College	Florida St.	2.6	2.4	3.0
BYU	Liberty	17.2	15.9	17.4
California	Washington St.	-7.1	-6.7	-7.3
Cincinnati	Connecticut	38.8	34.5	40.2
Colorado	Stanford	-5.5	-5.1	-5.6
Duke	Notre Dame	-7.7	-6.5	-7.3
Florida	Vanderbilt	28.5	26.9	29.3
Florida Atlantic	Florida Int’l.	9.4	9.5	10.9
Fresno St.	Utah St.	-1.0	0.9	-1.2
Georgia	Missouri	18.1	18.6	18.6
Hawaii	San Jose St.	12.0	11.5	11.1
Kentucky	Tennessee	2.2	1.0	2.0
Louisiana Tech	North Texas	6.4	7.1	6.2
Miami (Fla.)	Louisville	10.7	10.4	11.8
Michigan St.	Illinois	14.0	12.1	13.9
Minnesota	Penn St.	-3.9	-3.1	-4.5
New Mexico	Air Force	-21.4	-20.3	-23.4
North Carolina St.	Clemson	-35.7	-33.8	-36.9
Northwestern	Purdue	1.5	0.5	0.7
Ohio St.	Maryland	42.4	42.6	44.9
Oklahoma	Iowa St.	11.8	10.3	11.2
Old Dominion	UTSA	0.7	-1.1	0.9
Ole Miss	New Mexico St.	33.0	30.0	32.9
San Diego St.	Nevada	14.7	14.9	15.2
SMU	East Carolina	26.3	24.6	27.0
South Carolina	Appalachian St.	8.1	7.4	8.1
Southern Miss.	UAB	7.0	4.0	6.5
TCU	Baylor	-4.1	-1.7	-3.2
Texas	Kansas St.	0.7	1.0	0.6
Texas St.	South Alabama	9.8	7.8	9.8
Troy	Georgia Southern	-2.9	-2.1	-3.5
UL-Monroe	Georgia St.	-4.1	-5.0	-4.3
UTEP	Charlotte	-15.1	-11.5	-14.9
Virginia	Georgia Tech	15.8	17.6	15.9
Virginia Tech	Wake Forest	-1.5	-1.0	-1.5
West Virginia	Texas Tech	1.2	0.7	1.6
Wisconsin	Iowa	4.3	5.7	4.3

 

Special Game–150th Anniversary of College Football

Dartmouth and Princeton will play Saturday at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx at 3:30 PM EST.  The game is available on ESPNU, and both teams sport perfect 7-0 records in the FCS Division.  It will mark the 150th anniversary of college football.  Princeton (known then as the College of New Jersey until 1896) and Rutgers met for the first college game in November 6, 1869, and Rutgers won that game 6 goals to 4.

This might be the most important Ivy League game since 8-0-0 Harvard and 8-0-0 Yale battled to an unbelievable 29-29 tie to conclude the 1968 season.  Yale led 29-13 with less than a minute to play, and Harvard scored twice with successful two-point conversions to tie the game and claim part of the Ivy League Championship.

Dartmouth and Princeton have been the top two programs in recent Ivy League history.  Both teams have enjoyed some incredible seasons in the distant past as well.  The 1970 Darmouth team was the best in Ivy League history, as they won the Lambert Trophy for best overall team from the East and finished ranked in the top 20 in the nation after  finishing 9-0.  That Dartmouth team surrendered just 42 points all season, but they didn’t give up a point in their final four games.

Princeton was one of the final teams in major college football to use the old Single Wing offense.  The Tigers went 9-0 and won the Ivy League in 1964, but their 1950 and 1951 teams that went undefeated finished number six in the AP Poll, and star back Dick Kazmaier won the 1951 Heisman Trophy.

The Ivy League isn’t Division 1 any more, and the champion doesn’t even get to go to the FCS Playoffs, but this is still an incredible game worth watching if you have a second monitor to watch in addition to that other 3:30 PM game in Tuscaloosa, AL.

The PiRate Ratings do not rate FCS teams the same way as we rate FBS teams.  We can estimate a power rating based on a former PiRate Formula, which we used from 1980 to 1996.

The estimate for this game is: 

Dartmouth 19

Princeton 16

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Ohio St.	139.0	138.1	140.1	139.1
2	Clemson	135.3	133.0	136.3	134.9
3	Alabama	135.6	132.5	136.3	134.8
4	L S U	129.4	127.1	129.3	128.6
5	Georgia	126.7	124.8	126.7	126.1
6	Penn St.	124.9	124.1	125.2	124.8
7	Utah	123.7	122.6	124.5	123.6
8	Oklahoma	123.5	122.7	123.2	123.1
9	Michigan	123.0	121.6	123.3	122.6
10	Auburn	122.5	120.8	122.3	121.9
11	Oregon	121.2	121.3	122.5	121.7
12	Florida	122.8	119.9	122.3	121.6
13	Wisconsin	120.4	120.0	120.3	120.2
14	Iowa	119.1	117.3	119.0	118.4
15	Minnesota	118.1	117.9	117.8	117.9
16	Notre Dame	116.4	114.7	116.0	115.7
17	Texas A&M	116.2	114.6	115.1	115.3
18	Iowa St.	114.8	115.4	115.0	115.1
19	Washington	114.3	114.0	115.3	114.5
20	Central Florida	113.5	112.8	114.2	113.5
21	Baylor	113.5	113.5	112.8	113.3
22	Washington St.	113.0	112.2	113.5	112.9
23	Kansas St.	112.3	112.2	112.3	112.3
24	Michigan St.	112.7	111.8	112.2	112.2
25	Mississippi St.	110.8	107.5	114.7	111.0
26	South Carolina	111.7	110.0	111.1	110.9
27	Missouri	111.6	109.2	111.1	110.6
28	Indiana	110.6	109.6	110.3	110.2
29	Oklahoma St.	110.0	110.7	109.7	110.1
30	Texas	109.9	110.2	109.9	110.0
31	Tennessee	109.5	109.3	108.6	109.1
32	T C U	107.3	109.8	107.6	108.2
33	Kentucky	108.7	107.3	107.6	107.9
34	Virginia	107.7	107.8	107.9	107.8
35	U S C	107.3	107.8	107.6	107.6
36	Miami (Fla.)	107.2	106.8	108.3	107.4
37	Arizona St.	107.2	106.5	107.7	107.2
38	Cincinnati	107.0	106.0	107.4	106.8
39	Wake Forest	106.5	106.0	107.0	106.5
40	SMU	106.2	105.9	107.1	106.4
41	Memphis	105.9	105.9	106.7	106.2
42	Appalachian St.	106.6	105.6	106.0	106.1
43	Ole Miss	106.4	105.4	106.3	106.0
44	Boise St.	106.0	105.9	106.1	106.0
45	Pittsburgh	105.7	105.3	106.0	105.7
46	North Carolina	105.4	105.2	106.1	105.6
47	Duke	105.7	105.1	105.6	105.5
48	Air Force	103.7	105.0	104.5	104.4
49	Texas Tech	104.4	104.6	103.5	104.2
50	Stanford	104.0	103.3	103.7	103.7
51	Florida St.	103.6	103.5	103.6	103.6
52	Purdue	103.6	103.4	102.9	103.3
53	BYU	103.2	103.2	103.4	103.3
54	Boston College	103.2	102.9	103.6	103.2
55	Nebraska	103.1	103.6	102.3	103.0
56	California	102.8	102.4	103.3	102.8
57	West Virginia	102.7	102.3	102.1	102.3
58	Virginia Tech	102.0	102.0	102.5	102.2
59	Illinois	101.7	102.6	101.3	101.9
60	Northwestern	102.5	101.4	101.2	101.7
61	U C L A	101.7	101.6	101.5	101.6
62	Louisiana	101.3	101.6	101.4	101.4
63	Tulane	99.7	100.5	100.2	100.1
64	Oregon St.	99.8	100.8	99.5	100.0
65	Wyoming	99.0	101.2	99.6	99.9
66	Louisville	99.6	99.4	99.5	99.5
67	Navy	97.9	100.5	98.9	99.1
68	Utah St.	99.2	98.4	99.8	99.1
69	Maryland	99.6	98.5	98.2	98.8
70	Western Michigan	98.8	97.9	98.7	98.5
71	San Diego St.	97.9	99.6	97.7	98.4
72	Temple	98.3	97.5	99.1	98.3
73	Syracuse	98.5	97.7	97.8	98.0
74	Houston	97.0	97.9	99.1	98.0
75	Georgia Southern	96.9	96.7	96.4	96.7
76	Arizona	96.7	96.5	96.2	96.5
77	North Carolina St.	96.6	96.2	96.5	96.4
78	Vanderbilt	97.3	96.0	96.0	96.4
79	Florida Atlantic	95.6	95.5	96.9	96.0
80	Kansas	95.5	96.5	95.4	95.8
81	Fresno St.	95.2	96.2	95.6	95.7
82	Hawaii	95.2	96.6	94.3	95.4
83	Colorado	95.5	95.2	95.1	95.2
84	Georgia Tech	94.8	93.2	95.0	94.3
85	Ohio	94.4	93.5	94.9	94.3
86	Southern Miss.	94.6	93.3	94.8	94.2
87	Louisiana Tech	94.0	94.4	94.3	94.2
88	Army	94.1	94.2	93.4	93.9
89	Buffalo	92.9	93.6	94.4	93.6
90	Georgia St.	92.5	93.8	92.2	92.8
91	Tulsa	91.8	92.7	92.9	92.5
92	Arkansas	92.2	92.2	91.6	92.0
93	South Florida	91.4	92.6	91.8	91.9
94	Troy	91.6	92.1	90.5	91.4
95	Arkansas St.	91.3	91.6	91.2	91.4
96	Marshall	90.8	90.4	91.6	90.9
97	U A B	90.1	91.8	90.7	90.9
98	North Texas	90.6	90.2	91.1	90.6
99	Ball St.	90.4	89.9	90.4	90.2
100	Western Kentucky	89.4	90.2	90.8	90.1
101	Liberty	89.5	90.8	89.6	89.9
102	Middle Tennessee	89.8	89.0	89.9	89.6
103	Northern Illinois	89.5	88.7	89.6	89.3
104	Miami (Ohio)	89.5	88.2	89.9	89.2
105	Toledo	88.4	88.7	89.1	88.7
106	Central Michigan	88.2	88.8	89.1	88.7
107	Colorado St.	87.1	90.7	87.7	88.5
108	San Jose St.	87.7	89.5	87.7	88.3
109	Kent St.	87.6	87.4	87.9	87.6
110	Florida Int’l.	87.7	87.5	87.5	87.6
111	Coastal Carolina	87.2	88.4	86.8	87.5
112	Nevada	86.2	87.7	85.5	86.5
113	Charlotte	86.1	86.4	86.5	86.3
114	Louisiana-Monroe	85.8	86.4	85.4	85.9
115	Eastern Michigan	84.2	84.3	84.5	84.4
116	Rutgers	84.1	83.8	82.9	83.6
117	U N L V	83.1	84.7	82.7	83.5
118	East Carolina	82.9	84.3	83.1	83.4
119	Texas St.	81.8	82.3	81.0	81.7
120	New Mexico	79.8	82.2	78.5	80.2
121	Rice	79.5	80.4	78.7	79.6
122	New Mexico St.	76.4	78.5	76.4	77.1
123	Texas-San Antonio	75.6	77.7	75.5	76.2
124	South Alabama	74.5	77.0	73.7	75.1
125	Bowling Green	74.1	73.9	74.1	74.1
126	Old Dominion	73.8	74.0	73.9	73.9
127	Connecticut	71.2	74.5	70.2	72.0
128	U T E P	68.5	72.5	69.1	70.0
129	Akron	66.9	66.7	65.6	66.4
130	Massachusetts	58.6	60.3	57.3	58.7

 

PiRate Ratings For Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	113.5	112.8	114.2	113.5	4-1	7-2
Cincinnati	107.0	106.0	107.4	106.8	4-0	7-1
Temple	98.3	97.5	99.1	98.3	2-2	5-3
South Florida	91.4	92.6	91.8	91.9	2-2	4-4
East Carolina	82.9	84.3	83.1	83.4	0-5	3-6
Connecticut	71.2	74.5	70.2	72.0	0-5	2-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
SMU	106.2	105.9	107.1	106.4	4-1	8-1
Memphis	105.9	105.9	106.7	106.2	4-1	8-1
Tulane	99.7	100.5	100.2	100.1	3-2	6-3
Navy	97.9	100.5	98.9	99.1	5-1	7-1
Houston	97.0	97.9	99.1	98.0	1-4	3-6
Tulsa	91.8	92.7	92.9	92.5	0-5	2-7
AAC Averages	96.9	97.6	97.6	97.3
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	135.3	133.0	136.3	134.9	6-0	9-0
Wake Forest	106.5	106.0	107.0	106.5	3-1	7-1
Florida St.	103.6	103.5	103.6	103.6	3-4	4-5
Boston College	103.2	102.9	103.6	103.2	3-3	5-4
Louisville	99.6	99.4	99.5	99.5	3-2	5-3
Syracuse	98.5	97.7	97.8	98.0	0-5	3-6
North Carolina St.	96.6	96.2	96.5	96.4	1-3	4-4
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Virginia	107.7	107.8	107.9	107.8	4-2	6-3
Miami (Fla.)	107.2	106.8	108.3	107.4	3-3	5-4
Pittsburgh	105.7	105.3	106.0	105.7	3-2	6-3
North Carolina	105.4	105.2	106.1	105.6	3-3	4-5
Duke	105.7	105.1	105.6	105.5	2-3	4-4
Virginia Tech	102.0	102.0	102.5	102.2	3-2	5-3
Georgia Tech	94.8	93.2	95.0	94.3	1-4	2-6
ACC Averages	105.1	104.6	105.4	105.0
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	123.5	122.7	123.2	123.1	4-1	7-1
Iowa St.	114.8	115.4	115.0	115.1	3-2	5-3
Baylor	113.5	113.5	112.8	113.3	5-0	8-0
Kansas St.	112.3	112.2	112.3	112.3	3-2	6-2
Oklahoma St.	110.0	110.7	109.7	110.1	3-3	6-3
Texas	109.9	110.2	109.9	110.0	3-2	5-3
T C U	107.3	109.8	107.6	108.2	2-3	4-4
Texas Tech	104.4	104.6	103.5	104.2	1-4	3-5
West Virginia	102.7	102.3	102.1	102.3	1-4	3-5
Kansas	95.5	96.5	95.4	95.8	1-5	3-6
Big 12 Averages	109.4	109.8	109.1	109.4
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	139.0	138.1	140.1	139.1	5-0	8-0
Penn St.	124.9	124.1	125.2	124.8	5-0	8-0
Michigan	123.0	121.6	123.3	122.6	4-2	7-2
Michigan St.	112.7	111.8	112.2	112.2	2-3	4-4
Indiana	110.6	109.6	110.3	110.2	4-2	7-2
Maryland	99.6	98.5	98.2	98.8	1-5	3-6
Rutgers	84.1	83.8	82.9	83.6	0-6	2-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	120.4	120.0	120.3	120.2	3-2	6-2
Iowa	119.1	117.3	119.0	118.4	3-2	6-2
Minnesota	118.1	117.9	117.8	117.9	5-0	8-0
Purdue	103.6	103.4	102.9	103.3	2-4	3-6
Nebraska	103.1	103.6	102.3	103.0	2-4	4-5
Illinois	101.7	102.6	101.3	101.9	3-3	5-4
Northwestern	102.5	101.4	101.2	101.7	0-6	1-7
Big Ten Averages	111.6	111.0	111.2	111.3
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	95.6	95.5	96.9	96.0	4-1	6-3
Marshall	90.8	90.4	91.6	90.9	4-1	6-3
Western Kentucky	89.4	90.2	90.8	90.1	4-2	5-4
Middle Tennessee	89.8	89.0	89.9	89.6	2-3	3-6
Florida Int’l.	87.7	87.5	87.5	87.6	3-3	5-4
Charlotte	86.1	86.4	86.5	86.3	2-3	4-5
Old Dominion	73.8	74.0	73.9	73.9	0-5	1-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Southern Miss.	94.6	93.3	94.8	94.2	3-1	5-3
Louisiana Tech	94.0	94.4	94.3	94.2	4-0	7-1
U A B	90.1	91.8	90.7	90.9	3-1	6-2
North Texas	90.6	90.2	91.1	90.6	3-2	4-5
Rice	79.5	80.4	78.7	79.6	0-5	0-9
Texas-San Antonio	75.6	77.7	75.5	76.2	2-2	3-5
U T E P	68.5	72.5	69.1	70.0	0-5	1-7
CUSA Averages	86.1	86.7	86.5	86.4
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	116.4	114.7	116.0	115.7	x	6-2
BYU	103.2	103.2	103.4	103.3	x	4-4
Army	94.1	94.2	93.4	93.9	x	3-6
Liberty	89.5	90.8	89.6	89.9	x	6-3
New Mexico St.	76.4	78.5	76.4	77.1	x	0-8
Massachusetts	58.6	60.3	57.3	58.7	x	1-8
Indep. Averages	89.7	90.3	89.3	89.8
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio	94.4	93.5	94.9	94.3	3-1	4-4
Buffalo	92.9	93.6	94.4	93.6	3-2	5-4
Miami (Ohio)	89.5	88.2	89.9	89.2	3-1	4-4
Kent St.	87.6	87.4	87.9	87.6	2-2	3-5
Bowling Green	74.1	73.9	74.1	74.1	2-3	3-6
Akron	66.9	66.7	65.6	66.4	0-5	0-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Western Michigan	98.8	97.9	98.7	98.5	3-2	5-4
Ball St.	90.4	89.9	90.4	90.2	3-1	4-4
Northern Illinois	89.5	88.7	89.6	89.3	2-3	3-6
Toledo	88.4	88.7	89.1	88.7	2-2	5-3
Central Michigan	88.2	88.8	89.1	88.7	4-2	6-4
Eastern Michigan	84.2	84.3	84.5	84.4	1-4	4-5
MAC Averages	87.1	86.8	87.4	87.1
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	106.0	105.9	106.1	106.0	4-0	7-1
Air Force	103.7	105.0	104.5	104.4	4-1	7-2
Wyoming	99.0	101.2	99.6	99.9	3-1	6-2
Utah St.	99.2	98.4	99.8	99.1	3-1	4-4
Colorado St.	87.1	90.7	87.7	88.5	3-2	4-5
New Mexico	79.8	82.2	78.5	80.2	0-5	2-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
San Diego St.	97.9	99.6	97.7	98.4	4-1	7-1
Fresno St.	95.2	96.2	95.6	95.7	2-2	4-4
Hawaii	95.2	96.6	94.3	95.4	2-3	5-4
San Jose St.	87.7	89.5	87.7	88.3	1-4	4-5
Nevada	86.2	87.7	85.5	86.5	2-3	5-4
U N L V	83.1	84.7	82.7	83.5	1-5	2-7
MWC Averages	93.3	94.8	93.3	93.8
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Oregon	121.2	121.3	122.5	121.7	6-0	8-1
Washington	114.3	114.0	115.3	114.5	2-4	5-4
Washington St.	113.0	112.2	113.5	112.9	1-4	4-4
Stanford	104.0	103.3	103.7	103.7	3-3	4-4
California	102.8	102.4	103.3	102.8	1-4	4-4
Oregon St.	99.8	100.8	99.5	100.0	3-2	4-4
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	123.7	122.6	124.5	123.6	5-1	8-1
U S C	107.3	107.8	107.6	107.6	4-2	5-4
Arizona St.	107.2	106.5	107.7	107.2	2-3	5-3
U C L A	101.7	101.6	101.5	101.6	4-2	4-5
Arizona	96.7	96.5	96.2	96.5	2-4	4-5
Colorado	95.5	95.2	95.1	95.2	1-5	3-6
Pac-12 Averages	107.3	107.0	107.5	107.3
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	126.7	124.8	126.7	126.1	4-1	7-1
Florida	122.8	119.9	122.3	121.6	5-2	7-2
South Carolina	111.7	110.0	111.1	110.9	3-4	4-5
Missouri	111.6	109.2	111.1	110.6	2-2	5-3
Tennessee	109.5	109.3	108.6	109.1	2-3	4-5
Kentucky	108.7	107.3	107.6	107.9	2-4	4-4
Vanderbilt	97.3	96.0	96.0	96.4	1-4	2-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	135.6	132.5	136.3	134.8	5-0	8-0
L S U	129.4	127.1	129.3	128.6	4-0	8-0
Auburn	122.5	120.8	122.3	121.9	4-2	7-2
Texas A&M	116.2	114.6	115.1	115.3	3-2	6-3
Mississippi St.	110.8	107.5	114.7	111.0	2-4	4-5
Ole Miss	106.4	105.4	106.3	106.0	2-4	3-6
Arkansas	92.2	92.2	91.6	92.0	0-6	2-7
SEC Averages	114.4	112.6	114.2	113.7
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	106.6	105.6	106.0	106.1	4-1	7-1
Georgia Southern	96.9	96.7	96.4	96.7	3-1	5-3
Georgia St.	92.5	93.8	92.2	92.8	3-1	6-2
Troy	91.6	92.1	90.5	91.4	1-3	3-5
Coastal Carolina	87.2	88.4	86.8	87.5	1-3	4-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	101.3	101.6	101.4	101.4	3-1	6-2
Arkansas St.	91.3	91.6	91.2	91.4	3-2	5-4
Louisiana-Monroe	85.8	86.4	85.4	85.9	2-2	3-5
Texas St.	81.8	82.3	81.0	81.7	1-3	2-6
South Alabama	74.5	77.0	73.7	75.1	0-4	1-7
SBC Averages	91.0	91.6	90.5	91.0

 

Rating The Conferences

#	League	Average
1	Southeastern	113.7
2	Big Ten	111.3
3	Big 12	109.4
4	Pac-12	107.3
5	Atlantic Coast	105.0
6	American	97.3
7	Mountain West	93.8
8	Sun Belt	91.0
9	Independents	89.8
10	Mid-American	87.1
11	Conference USA	86.4

 

PiRate Rating Guess On Initial Top 4

Prediction on Selection Committee Choices on Tuesday
1	LSU
2	Ohio St.
3	Alabama
4	Penn St.

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1	Memphis
2	Cincinnati
3	Boise St.
4	Navy
5	SMU

Playoffs and Bowl Projections

 

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Buffalo	Marshall
Frisco	AAC	At-large	SMU	[Boise St.]
Cure	AAC	SBC	[Liberty]	Arkansas St.
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	UAB	Hawaii
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Tulane	Ohio
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Central Michigan	Georgia St.
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Pac-12	San Diego St.	Oregon St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	Louisiana Tech	Louisiana
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Cincinnati	Florida Atlantic
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC	BYU	Navy
Independence	ACC	SEC	Miami (Fla.)	[Southern Miss.]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	North Carolina	Michigan St.
Military	ACC	AAC	Boston College	Temple
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Virginia	Michigan
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Texas A&M
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	USC	Iowa
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	Iowa St.	Arizona St.
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Notre Dame	Oklahoma St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Memphis	Baylor
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	Western Kentucky	[Fresno St.]
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	Washington	Illinois
Music City	SEC	ACC	[Ball St.]	Pittsburgh
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Wake Forest	Florida
Belk	ACC	SEC	Virginia Tech	Mississippi St.
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Louisville	Washington St.
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	TCU	[Stanford]
Arizona	SBC	MWC	Appalachian St.	Air Force
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Kansas St.	Utah
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Auburn	Wisconsin
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	Tennessee
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Minnesota	Oregon
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	Georgia
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Central Florida	[Duke]
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	Kentucky	Indiana
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Toledo	Utah St.
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	Nebraska	Wyoming
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Western Michigan	Georgia Southern
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	Ohio St.	Clemson
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	Alabama	LSU
Championship	Fiesta	Peach	Ohio St.	Alabama
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

This Is The Weekend

We don’t really need to say anything.  If you are reading this publication, you already know how incredible this weekend will be in college football.  On a typical November 9 in prior years, the incredible Princeton-Dartmouth game at Yankee Stadium might be the marquee game of the weekend.  Unfortunately, it starts at the same time as the biggie at Bryant-Denny.  Let’s take a brief look at the games that may make you want to stay home on Saturday, throw some logs on the fireplace, enjoy your favorite snacks and beverages, and watch two to three games at the same time.

 

12 Noon EST

 

 

Penn St. (8-0) at Minnesota (8-0)–ABC

The winner stays in the hunt for a Playoff spot, while the loser probably falls out of the Rose Bowl race.  Minnesota hasn’t played in a November game that had this type of importance since they played at Purdue in November of 1967 with a Rose Bowl bid on the line.  Purdue clobbered the Gophers that day, and even though Minnesota beat undefeated Indiana the following week, when the season ended in a three-way tie for first, Indiana received the Rose Bowl bid because Minnesota and Purdue had been in the Rose Bowl more recently (It was the Hoosiers’ only Rose Bowl invitation).

Penn State has been in the Rose Bowl more recently, but the Nittany Lions would consider a trip to Pasadena this year to be a failure.  James Franklin has his team in line for the Playoffs if they could upset Ohio State on the November 23 and then win the Big Ten Championship.  Of course, the same holds true for the Gophers.  Wins over Penn State, Iowa, Wisconsin, and then Ohio State would definitely put Minnesota in the Playoffs.  Consider this game the equivalent of a Sweet 16 game in the NCAA Basketball Tournament.

 

Baylor (8-0) at TCU (4-4)–FS1

This is a 100% definite trap game for the undefeated Bears.  Baylor hosts Oklahoma on November 16, and no matter how hard Coach Matt Rhule tries to convince his squad that TCU is good enough to beat them, the players are already counting down the days until the Sooners come to Waco.

TCU is on the verge of having to worry about where two more victories will come, so bowl eligibility is not yet a given in Forth Worth.  The Horned Frogs have to win two of their final four and have games at Texas Tech and Oklahoma, as well as a home finale with West Virginia.  They will be underdogs in three of their final four and must upset somebody to get to a bowl.

 

 

3:30 PM EST

 

LSU (8-0) at Alabama (8-0)–CBS

The knock against LSU in recent years was that the Tigers were too conservative on the offensive attack, and defense and running couldn’t beat Alabama and other behemoths.  This year, LSU’s offense can light it up against anybody, including Alabama’s defense.

The rub is that with the increased offensive efficiency and quick scoring passing attack, the Tigers’ defense has been forced to play up to 20 additional snaps per game, and opponents are finding ways to move the ball on the former tough defense.

All that’s changed is that LSU wins games 42-27 instead of 27-12.  A 15-point victory is a 15-point victory.  In the SEC, talent at each of the two-deep offenses and defenses just mean more than whether a team can pass the ball for 300 yards and score 30 points or hold the opponents to 250 total yards and 14 points.

Alabama still has the superior overall talent in the two-deeps on both sides of the ball.  In the past, Alabama might have won this game 24-14.  We believe they will continue to dominate this series and win it 45-35.  A 10-point superior team is still 10 points better than the other team.

 

Dartmouth (7-0) vs. Princeton (7-0) @ Yankee Stadium in the Bronx–ESPNU

This is the 150th Anniversary of College Football, so it is worth tuning in to watch when and if the big game is not as exciting.  It isn’t the original Yankee Stadium, but Yankee Stadium has been the site of many great college football games including the incredible Army-Notre Dame game of 1946, which ended 0-0.

 

Kansas St. (6-2) at Texas (5-3)–ESPN

Both teams are 3-2 in the Big 12, and they are still mathematically in the race for the number two spot in the Conference Championship Game.  Kansas State holds the tiebreaker over Oklahoma, so if the Wildcats can win out, and Oklahoma loses to Baylor or Oklahoma State, the Wildcats will play for a chance to go to the Sugar Bowl.

This has been a down year for Texas, and the Longhorns could be falling far enough to be placed in a bowl game in Houston against those Aggies.  The Texas Bowl would love that, but the Longhorns wouldn’t.

 

Illinois (5-4) at Michigan St. (4-4)–FS1

Why do we consider this game so important?  Illinois was given up for dead in early October, as the Illini appeared to be headed to a 6th or 7th place finish in the Big Ten West, and Coach Lovie Smith was probably on the way out.  Illinois had defeated Akron and Connecticut, two of the bottom 10 teams in the nation, and they had lost to Eastern Michigan.  At 2-4, Illinois then upset Wisconsin and followed that up with an impressive win at Purdue and a four-touchdown trouncing of Rutgers.  The Illini need one more victory to go bowling.  They are likely to get it against Northwestern to close out the season, but if Illinois can win at Michigan State, they will move up a couple of places in the bowl pecking order.

Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio is going to have to learn how to change or else he could be on his way toward retirement.  Dantonio is one of the lone holdovers to horse and buggy football.  Michigan State plays like it is still 1975, and the team that rushes for 200 yards and holds the other to less than 100 yards is going to win with relative ease.  That’s not how teams win these days.  If Sparty loses this game, there is a better than 50-50 chance that they will not get six wins or go to a bowl.  Even if they win this game, they may only be able to garner the lowly Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit.

 

Louisville (5-3) at Miami (Fla.) (5-4)–FS1

Louisville coach Scott Satterfield should receive some votes for ACC Coach of the Year, as the Cardinals were picked to finish last in the Atlantic Division, and they are most likely going to be bowl eligible.

Miami still has a small chance to win the Coastal Division, but a lot of things have to happen to make that a reality.  First and foremost is that the Hurricanes win their last three games.

The winner of this game becomes bowl eligible, and you should get the best from both teams, which will make this exciting enough to put an auxiliary monitor on this game.

 

4:00 PM EST

 

 

Iowa (6-2) at Wisconsin (6-2)–Fox

Minnesota has not clinched the West Division in the Big Ten, so the winner of this game remains in contention for the flag, since both must still play the Gophers.  If Penn State wins the 12:00 game, then whoever wins this one will get a chance to play Minnesota for first place later in November.

Expect a hard-fought, defensive struggle in this one, and the weather is expected to be cold and windy.  If you like the old blood and guts games of the 1950’s (yes, we know we have some gray-haired readers), then this is the game for you.  It could be one of those 12-10 games.

 

 

7:30 PM EST

 

 

Tennessee (4-5) at Kentucky (4-4)–SEC Network

How about a career saving resurrection?  Tennessee head coach Jeremy Pruitt was one step out the door in Knoxville a month ago.  At 1-4 with losses at home to Georgia State and BYU, the Vols looked like a potentially 2-10 or possible 1-11 team.

Tennessee was reborn after a blowout loss to Georgia.  Wins over Mississippi State, South Carolina, and UAB, and a loss to Alabama that was still in doubt into the fourth quarter has the Vols on the verge of becoming bowl eligible.

Kentucky began the season strong enough to contend for a New Year’s 6 Bowl.  Losing quarterback Terry Wilson probably cost the Wildcats two, possibly three wins to date, and Kentucky’s defense is not strong enough to hold Tennessee below 20 points in Lexington.  Can the Wildcats find some offense that they have not been able to find without Wilson under center?  A loss here will put the K-Cats under .500, but with Vanderbilt and UT-Martin following this game, the blue and white can still get to 6-6.

 

8:00 PM EST

 

 

Iowa State (5-3) at Oklahoma (7-1)–Fox

The last time Iowa State came to Norman, the Cyclones pulled off a major upset.  If they want to make the Big 12 Championship Game, they will have to do it again.  Of course, Oklahoma is coming off a bye week following their upset loss to Kansas State, so the Sooners are likely to play their best game of the season.

The question is, can Oklahoma’s defense stop Iowa State’s offense, and can the Sooners score at least 38 points in this game?

There’s another little issue in this game.  Oklahoma has a date at Baylor next week.  Even coming off a loss and a bye week, some of the Sooners may have a hard time thinking about Iowa State with the undefeated Bears coming up next week.  This should be an exciting game, especially under the lights at Owen Field.

 

 

10:15 PM EST

 

 

Wyoming (6-2) at Boise St. (7-1)–ESPN

Boise State has been a bit off in October and November.  The Broncos are not likely to earn the Group of 5 bid to a NY6 bowl, and they are now playing for their lives in the Mountain Division of the Mountain West.

Wyoming is a no-nonsense hard-hitting team that can wear teams down in the second half.  The Cowboys have enough talent to go to the Field of Blue and move into first place in the division.  If you are a night owl and stay up late on Saturday night watching games from the Rockies and West Coast, this is definitely one you should plan to watch.  Wyoming is coming into this game looking like they are sitting on their best production in the next few weeks.  We have this sneaky suspicion that the Cowboys will be in the lead in the fourth quarter in this game.

 

 

10:30 PM EST

 

 

Nevada (5-4) at San Diego St. (7-1)–ESPN2

San Diego State is in first place in the West Division of the Mountain West, but the Aztecs must play Nevada, Fresno State, and Hawaii in successive weeks, so even though Nevada is just 2-3 in conference play, the Wolf Pack are still alive in the division race.  This should be a relatively close game, and it could be decided on a late turnover or big play.  If you can stay up until 1:45 on the East Coast, you may be rewarded with some excitement to end your college football fix.

PiRate College Football Ratings: October 28, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Thursday	October 31
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Appalachian St.	Georgia Southern	16.9	16.3	17.3
Baylor	West Virginia	14.9	15.7	15.4
Friday	November 1
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Connecticut	Navy	-20.7	-19.8	-22.6
Saturday	November 2
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Wake Forest	North Carolina St.	6.2	5.9	6.4
Massachusetts	Liberty	-24.7	-23.9	-26.1
Florida Int’l.	Old Dominion	17.4	16.9	17.3
Coastal Carolina	Troy	-2.6	-2.1	-2.3
Georgia Tech	Pittsburgh	-7.6	-9.1	-7.4
Purdue	Nebraska	3.5	2.6	3.7
Central Florida	Houston	19.9	18.3	18.7
Maryland	Michigan	-17.1	-16.4	-18.7
Indiana	Northwestern	7.1	7.1	8.0
Bowling Green	Akron	5.9	5.7	7.0
Illinois	Rutgers	19.3	20.6	19.8
East Carolina	Cincinnati	-24.6	-21.8	-25.2
Syracuse	Boston College	6.6	6.3	5.7
Eastern Michigan	Buffalo	-0.6	-1.1	-1.5
North Carolina	Virginia	1.8	1.6	2.8
Utah St.	BYU	4.4	3.6	5.2
Notre Dame	Virginia Tech	19.2	17.4	18.5
USC	Oregon	-5.7	-5.2	-6.6
UCLA	Colorado	7.9	7.8	7.6
Kansas	Kansas St.	-12.0	-10.9	-11.7
Louisiana	Texas St.	22.1	21.5	22.6
South Carolina	Vanderbilt	17.4	16.9	18.1
Central Michigan	Northern Illinois	-7.2	-5.5	-6.5
Rice	Marshall	-8.4	-6.7	-10.0
Colorado St.	UNLV	4.3	6.5	5.1
Memphis	SMU	2.0	2.1	1.3
Texas A&M	UTSA	44.8	40.6	43.9
Air Force	Army	13.5	14.9	15.5
Arizona	Oregon St.	4.3	3.1	4.6
Tennessee	UAB	22.4	20.0	20.2
Auburn	Ole Miss	21.3	20.4	21.5
Florida (n)	Georgia	-3.5	-4.5	-3.8
Oklahoma St.	TCU	5.7	3.5	4.7
North Texas	UTEP	24.4	19.5	23.9
Tulane	Tulsa	10.9	10.8	10.1
Arkansas	Mississippi St.	-11.2	-7.3	-15.8
Charlotte	Middle Tennessee	-5.2	-4.0	-5.2
Western Kentucky	Florida Atlantic	-1.5	-0.3	-0.8
UL-Monroe	Arkansas St.	-2.6	-2.1	-2.4
Florida St.	Miami (Fla.)	2.1	2.9	1.5
Nevada	New Mexico	8.7	7.4	8.8
Washington	Utah	-6.3	-5.7	-6.2
San Jose St.	Boise St.	-16.1	-13.8	-16.7
Hawaii	Fresno St.	5.4	6.0	4.3
FBS vs.	FCS
Clemson	Wofford	48

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Ohio St.	138.7	137.8	139.8	138.8
2	Clemson	135.0	132.7	136.0	134.6
3	Alabama	135.3	132.2	136.0	134.5
4	L S U	129.1	126.8	129.0	128.3
5	Georgia	126.5	124.6	126.4	125.8
6	Penn St.	124.6	123.8	124.9	124.5
7	Utah	123.7	122.6	124.5	123.6
8	Auburn	123.7	122.0	123.7	123.1
9	Oklahoma	123.2	122.4	122.9	122.8
10	Florida	123.0	120.1	122.6	121.9
11	Michigan	121.5	119.9	121.8	121.1
12	Wisconsin	120.1	119.7	120.0	119.9
13	Oregon	118.4	118.4	119.6	118.8
14	Iowa	118.8	117.0	118.7	118.1
15	Minnesota	117.8	117.6	117.5	117.6
16	Notre Dame	117.6	115.8	117.3	116.9
17	Texas A&M	117.4	115.6	116.4	116.5
18	Iowa St.	114.5	115.1	114.7	114.8
19	Washington	114.3	114.0	115.3	114.5
20	Baylor	114.3	114.5	113.9	114.2
21	Central Florida	113.7	113.0	114.5	113.7
22	Washington St.	112.7	111.9	113.2	112.6
23	Michigan St.	112.4	111.5	111.9	111.9
24	South Carolina	111.7	110.0	111.1	110.9
25	Missouri	111.3	108.9	110.8	110.3
26	Kansas St.	110.4	110.3	110.2	110.3
27	Oklahoma St.	110.0	110.5	109.5	110.0
28	U S C	109.6	110.2	110.0	110.0
29	Texas	109.6	109.9	109.6	109.7
30	Mississippi St.	109.1	105.5	113.1	109.2
31	Tennessee	109.5	109.1	108.3	109.0
32	Cincinnati	108.6	107.4	109.2	108.4
33	T C U	107.3	110.0	107.8	108.4
34	Indiana	108.8	107.7	108.4	108.3
35	Appalachian St.	108.7	107.8	108.4	108.3
36	Kentucky	108.4	107.0	107.3	107.6
37	Virginia	107.2	107.2	107.1	107.2
38	SMU	106.7	106.5	107.9	107.0
39	Arizona St.	106.9	106.2	107.4	106.9
40	Boise St.	106.4	106.1	106.7	106.4
41	North Carolina	105.9	105.8	106.9	106.2
42	Memphis	105.7	105.6	106.2	105.8
43	Florida St.	105.6	105.7	105.8	105.7
44	Miami (Fla.)	105.5	104.9	106.4	105.6
45	Pittsburgh	105.6	105.3	105.7	105.5
46	Duke	105.4	104.8	105.3	105.2
47	Air Force	104.3	105.7	105.4	105.1
48	Ole Miss	105.5	104.5	105.2	105.1
49	Northwestern	104.6	103.6	103.4	103.9
50	Texas Tech	104.1	104.3	103.2	103.9
51	Wake Forest	103.8	103.2	104.1	103.7
52	Stanford	103.7	103.0	103.4	103.4
53	Purdue	103.6	103.3	102.9	103.3
54	Nebraska	103.1	103.7	102.3	103.0
55	Syracuse	103.4	102.7	102.8	103.0
56	California	102.5	102.1	103.0	102.5
57	Utah St.	102.5	101.7	103.3	102.5
58	West Virginia	102.4	101.8	101.5	101.9
59	Virginia Tech	101.3	101.4	101.7	101.5
60	Illinois	101.2	102.1	100.6	101.3
61	Louisiana	101.1	101.2	101.0	101.1
62	U C L A	101.0	100.8	100.6	100.8
63	Maryland	101.4	100.5	100.0	100.6
64	Tulane	99.7	100.5	100.1	100.1
65	Boston College	99.8	99.4	100.1	99.8
66	Wyoming	98.7	100.9	99.3	99.6
67	BYU	99.6	99.6	99.6	99.6
68	North Carolina St.	99.6	99.3	99.7	99.5
69	Louisville	99.3	99.1	99.2	99.2
70	Arizona	98.9	98.7	98.6	98.7
71	Western Michigan	98.6	97.7	98.5	98.3
72	San Diego St.	97.6	99.3	97.4	98.1
73	Temple	98.0	97.2	98.8	98.0
74	Oregon St.	97.6	98.6	97.1	97.8
75	Houston	96.8	97.7	98.8	97.7
76	Kansas	96.9	97.9	97.0	97.3
77	Navy	95.9	98.4	96.8	97.1
78	Vanderbilt	97.3	96.0	96.0	96.4
79	Colorado	96.2	96.0	96.0	96.0
80	Hawaii	95.8	97.3	95.0	96.0
81	Fresno St.	94.9	95.8	95.2	95.3
82	Arkansas	94.9	95.2	94.2	94.8
83	Florida Atlantic	94.5	94.2	95.5	94.7
84	Georgia Tech	94.9	93.2	95.3	94.5
85	Georgia Southern	94.8	94.5	94.0	94.5
86	Ohio	94.2	93.3	94.7	94.1
87	Northern Illinois	94.3	93.4	94.5	94.1
88	Southern Miss.	94.4	93.1	94.6	94.0
89	Louisiana Tech	93.8	94.2	94.1	94.0
90	Army	93.8	93.8	92.8	93.5
91	Georgia St.	92.3	93.6	92.0	92.6
92	Tulsa	91.8	92.7	93.0	92.5
93	Troy	92.1	92.7	91.2	92.0
94	Middle Tennessee	91.9	91.1	92.2	91.7
95	South Florida	91.1	92.3	91.5	91.6
96	Western Kentucky	90.5	91.5	92.2	91.4
97	Buffalo	90.5	91.1	91.8	91.1
98	U A B	90.1	92.0	91.0	91.1
99	Arkansas St.	91.1	91.3	90.8	91.1
100	Marshall	90.6	90.0	91.4	90.7
101	North Texas	90.5	89.8	90.8	90.4
102	Ball St.	90.2	89.7	90.2	90.0
103	Miami (Ohio)	89.3	88.0	89.7	89.0
104	Toledo	88.2	88.5	88.9	88.5
105	Liberty	87.9	89.0	88.0	88.3
106	Florida Int’l.	88.3	88.1	88.3	88.2
107	San Jose St.	87.3	89.3	87.1	87.9
108	Eastern Michigan	87.3	87.5	87.8	87.6
109	Kent St.	87.4	87.2	87.7	87.4
110	Colorado St.	85.9	89.6	86.4	87.3
111	Coastal Carolina	87.0	88.1	86.4	87.2
112	Nevada	86.1	87.4	85.2	86.2
113	Louisiana-Monroe	86.0	86.7	85.8	86.2
114	Central Michigan	84.7	85.4	85.5	85.2
115	U N L V	84.6	86.1	84.3	85.0
116	Charlotte	84.3	84.6	84.5	84.5
117	Rutgers	84.9	84.6	83.9	84.5
118	Texas St.	82.0	82.7	81.4	82.0
119	East Carolina	81.0	82.6	81.0	81.5
120	New Mexico	79.9	82.5	78.8	80.4
121	Rice	79.7	80.8	78.9	79.8
122	New Mexico St.	76.2	78.3	76.2	76.9
123	Texas-San Antonio	74.7	77.0	74.5	75.4
124	South Alabama	74.3	76.8	73.5	74.9
125	Connecticut	73.2	76.6	72.3	74.0
126	Old Dominion	73.5	73.7	73.4	73.5
127	Bowling Green	72.7	72.4	72.6	72.6
128	U T E P	68.6	72.9	69.4	70.3
129	Akron	69.4	69.3	68.2	68.9
130	Massachusetts	60.7	62.6	59.4	60.9

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	113.7	113.0	114.5	113.7	3-1	6-2
Cincinnati	108.6	107.4	109.2	108.4	3-0	6-1
Temple	98.0	97.2	98.8	98.0	2-2	5-3
South Florida	91.1	92.3	91.5	91.6	2-2	4-4
East Carolina	81.0	82.6	81.0	81.5	0-4	3-5
Connecticut	73.2	76.6	72.3	74.0	0-4	2-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
SMU	106.7	106.5	107.9	107.0	4-0	8-0
Memphis	105.7	105.6	106.2	105.8	3-1	7-1
Tulane	99.7	100.5	100.1	100.1	2-2	5-3
Houston	96.8	97.7	98.8	97.7	1-3	3-5
Navy	95.9	98.4	96.8	97.1	4-1	6-1
Tulsa	91.8	92.7	93.0	92.5	0-4	2-6
AAC Averages	96.8	97.5	97.5	97.3
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	135.0	132.7	136.0	134.6	6-0	8-0
Florida St.	105.6	105.7	105.8	105.7	3-3	4-4
Wake Forest	103.8	103.2	104.1	103.7	2-1	6-1
Syracuse	103.4	102.7	102.8	103.0	0-4	3-5
Boston College	99.8	99.4	100.1	99.8	2-3	4-4
North Carolina St.	99.6	99.3	99.7	99.5	1-2	4-3
Louisville	99.3	99.1	99.2	99.2	3-2	5-3
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Virginia	107.2	107.2	107.1	107.2	3-2	5-3
North Carolina	105.9	105.8	106.9	106.2	3-2	4-4
Miami (Fla.)	105.5	104.9	106.4	105.6	2-3	4-4
Pittsburgh	105.6	105.3	105.7	105.5	2-2	5-3
Duke	105.4	104.8	105.3	105.2	2-3	4-4
Virginia Tech	101.3	101.4	101.7	101.5	3-2	5-2
Georgia Tech	94.9	93.2	95.3	94.5	1-3	2-5
ACC Averages	105.2	104.6	105.4	105.1
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	123.2	122.4	122.9	122.8	4-1	7-1
Iowa St.	114.5	115.1	114.7	114.8	3-2	5-3
Baylor	114.3	114.5	113.9	114.2	4-0	7-0
Kansas St.	110.4	110.3	110.2	110.3	2-2	5-2
Oklahoma St.	110.0	110.5	109.5	110.0	2-3	5-3
Texas	109.6	109.9	109.6	109.7	3-2	5-3
T C U	107.3	110.0	107.8	108.4	2-2	4-3
Texas Tech	104.1	104.3	103.2	103.9	1-4	3-5
West Virginia	102.4	101.8	101.5	101.9	1-3	3-4
Kansas	96.9	97.9	97.0	97.3	1-4	3-5
Big 12 Averages	109.3	109.7	109.0	109.3
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	138.7	137.8	139.8	138.8	5-0	8-0
Penn St.	124.6	123.8	124.9	124.5	5-0	8-0
Michigan	121.5	119.9	121.8	121.1	3-2	6-2
Michigan St.	112.4	111.5	111.9	111.9	2-3	4-4
Indiana	108.8	107.7	108.4	108.3	3-2	6-2
Maryland	101.4	100.5	100.0	100.6	1-4	3-5
Rutgers	84.9	84.6	83.9	84.5	0-5	2-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	120.1	119.7	120.0	119.9	3-2	6-2
Iowa	118.8	117.0	118.7	118.1	3-2	6-2
Minnesota	117.8	117.6	117.5	117.6	5-0	8-0
Northwestern	104.6	103.6	103.4	103.9	0-5	1-6
Purdue	103.6	103.3	102.9	103.3	1-4	2-6
Nebraska	103.1	103.7	102.3	103.0	2-3	4-4
Illinois	101.2	102.1	100.6	101.3	2-3	4-4
Big Ten Averages	111.5	110.9	111.1	111.2
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	94.5	94.2	95.5	94.7	3-1	5-3
Middle Tennessee	91.9	91.1	92.2	91.7	2-2	3-5
Western Kentucky	90.5	91.5	92.2	91.4	4-1	5-3
Marshall	90.6	90.0	91.4	90.7	3-1	5-3
Florida Int’l.	88.3	88.1	88.3	88.2	2-3	4-4
Charlotte	84.3	84.6	84.5	84.5	1-3	3-5
Old Dominion	73.5	73.7	73.4	73.5	0-4	1-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Southern Miss.	94.4	93.1	94.6	94.0	3-1	5-3
Louisiana Tech	93.8	94.2	94.1	94.0	4-0	7-1
U A B	90.1	92.0	91.0	91.1	3-1	6-1
North Texas	90.5	89.8	90.8	90.4	2-2	3-5
Rice	79.7	80.8	78.9	79.8	0-4	0-8
Texas-San Antonio	74.7	77.0	74.5	75.4	2-2	3-4
U T E P	68.6	72.9	69.4	70.3	0-4	1-6
CUSA Averages	86.1	86.7	86.5	86.4
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	117.6	115.8	117.3	116.9	x	5-2
BYU	99.6	99.6	99.6	99.6	x	3-4
Army	93.8	93.8	92.8	93.5	x	3-5
Liberty	87.9	89.0	88.0	88.3	x	5-3
New Mexico St.	76.2	78.3	76.2	76.9	x	0-8
Massachusetts	60.7	62.6	59.4	60.9	x	1-7
Indep. Averages	89.3	89.8	88.9	89.3
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio	94.2	93.3	94.7	94.1	3-1	4-4
Buffalo	90.5	91.1	91.8	91.1	2-2	4-4
Miami (Ohio)	89.3	88.0	89.7	89.0	3-1	4-4
Kent St.	87.4	87.2	87.7	87.4	2-2	3-5
Bowling Green	72.7	72.4	72.6	72.6	1-3	2-6
Akron	69.4	69.3	68.2	68.9	0-4	0-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Western Michigan	98.6	97.7	98.5	98.3	3-2	5-4
Northern Illinois	94.3	93.4	94.5	94.1	2-2	3-5
Ball St.	90.2	89.7	90.2	90.0	3-1	4-4
Toledo	88.2	88.5	88.9	88.5	2-2	5-3
Eastern Michigan	87.3	87.5	87.8	87.6	1-3	4-4
Central Michigan	84.7	85.4	85.5	85.2	3-2	5-4
MAC Averages	87.2	87.0	87.5	87.2
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	106.4	106.1	106.7	106.4	3-0	6-1
Air Force	104.3	105.7	105.4	105.1	4-1	6-2
Utah St.	102.5	101.7	103.3	102.5	3-1	4-3
Wyoming	98.7	100.9	99.3	99.6	3-1	6-2
Colorado St.	85.9	89.6	86.4	87.3	2-2	3-5
New Mexico	79.9	82.5	78.8	80.4	0-4	2-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
San Diego St.	97.6	99.3	97.4	98.1	4-1	7-1
Hawaii	95.8	97.3	95.0	96.0	2-2	5-3
Fresno St.	94.9	95.8	95.2	95.3	1-2	3-4
San Jose St.	87.3	89.3	87.1	87.9	1-3	4-4
Nevada	86.1	87.4	85.2	86.2	1-3	4-4
U N L V	84.6	86.1	84.3	85.0	1-4	2-6
MWC Averages	93.7	95.1	93.7	94.2
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Oregon	118.4	118.4	119.6	118.8	5-0	7-1
Washington	114.3	114.0	115.3	114.5	2-3	5-3
Washington St.	112.7	111.9	113.2	112.6	1-4	4-4
Stanford	103.7	103.0	103.4	103.4	3-3	4-4
California	102.5	102.1	103.0	102.5	1-4	4-4
Oregon St.	97.6	98.6	97.1	97.8	2-2	3-4
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	123.7	122.6	124.5	123.6	4-1	7-1
U S C	109.6	110.2	110.0	110.0	4-1	5-3
Arizona St.	106.9	106.2	107.4	106.9	2-3	5-3
U C L A	101.0	100.8	100.6	100.8	3-2	3-5
Arizona	98.9	98.7	98.6	98.7	2-3	4-4
Colorado	96.2	96.0	96.0	96.0	1-4	3-5
Pac-12 Averages	107.1	106.9	107.4	107.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	126.5	124.6	126.4	125.8	3-1	6-1
Florida	123.0	120.1	122.6	121.9	5-1	7-1
South Carolina	111.7	110.0	111.1	110.9	2-4	3-5
Missouri	111.3	108.9	110.8	110.3	2-2	5-3
Tennessee	109.5	109.1	108.3	109.0	2-3	3-5
Kentucky	108.4	107.0	107.3	107.6	2-4	4-4
Vanderbilt	97.3	96.0	96.0	96.4	1-3	2-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	135.3	132.2	136.0	134.5	5-0	8-0
L S U	129.1	126.8	129.0	128.3	4-0	8-0
Auburn	123.7	122.0	123.7	123.1	3-2	6-2
Texas A&M	117.4	115.6	116.4	116.5	3-2	5-3
Mississippi St.	109.1	105.5	113.1	109.2	1-4	3-5
Ole Miss	105.5	104.5	105.2	105.1	2-3	3-5
Arkansas	94.9	95.2	94.2	94.8	0-5	2-6
SEC Averages	114.5	112.7	114.3	113.8
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	108.7	107.8	108.4	108.3	4-0	7-0
Georgia Southern	94.8	94.5	94.0	94.5	2-1	4-3
Georgia St.	92.3	93.6	92.0	92.6	3-1	6-2
Troy	92.1	92.7	91.2	92.0	1-2	3-4
Coastal Carolina	87.0	88.1	86.4	87.2	0-3	3-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	101.1	101.2	101.0	101.1	2-1	5-2
Arkansas St.	91.1	91.3	90.8	91.1	2-2	4-4
Louisiana-Monroe	86.0	86.7	85.8	86.2	2-1	3-4
Texas St.	82.0	82.7	81.4	82.0	1-2	2-5
South Alabama	74.3	76.8	73.5	74.9	0-4	1-7
SBC Averages	90.9	91.5	90.5	91.0

 

Conference Power Ratings
#	League	Average
1	Southeastern	113.8
2	Big Ten	111.2
3	Big 12	109.3
4	Pac-12	107.1
5	Atlantic Coast	105.1
6	American	97.3
7	Mountain West	94.2
8	Sun Belt	91.0
9	Independents	89.3
10	Mid-American	87.2
11	Conference USA	86.4

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1	SMU
2	Appalachian St.
3	Cincinnati
4	Navy
5	Boise St.

 

This Week’s Look At Some Key Contenders Not Getting Enough Publicity

What a difference a strange weekend of football makes!  With Kansas State beating Oklahoma, and LSU taking care of business against Auburn, the playoff picture began to swing toward the SEC getting two teams into the Playoffs.  At the moment, the Big Ten still has three undefeated teams, so there is a chance that the Big Ten could get two teams into the Playoffs if the regular season ends with a 13-0 team and a 12-1 or 11-1 team.

Minnesota will get its chance to prove whether they truly are Golden Gophers or just pests digging a hole in the ground.  If  Minny can beat Penn State, and then the Gophers follow it up with wins at Iowa and at home against Wisconsin, then the least Minnesota could get for a postseason reward would be their first trip to the Rose Bowl since January of 1962.

Having closely watched and diagnosed every scrimmage play in Minnesota’s last two games, this team looks to be legitimate.  The Gophers have an excellent inside-outside running attack.  Their running backs hit the perimeter quickly with speed.  The Gophers can get yards between the tackles as well.  Of all the teams we have seen so far this year, Minnesota’s rushing attack is the most consistent among teams that do not use the option.

The Gopher passing attack is one of the best in the nation with Tanner Morgan just a fraction behind Ohio State’s Justin Fields in league passer efficiency.

The Gophers aren’t all offense.  The Minnesota defense is surrendering just 284 yards (13th best in the nation) and 20 points per game. But, the defense is on a roll.  After giving up 119 points in their first four games, UM has given up just 41 in the last four.

Penn State and Minnesota both have the week off to prepare for this big game.  Unfortunately, this is the same day as the Alabama-LSU game, so it will be second banana to the first of many “game of the years.”

 

Baylor is still undefeated, the final team from the Big 12 that can say that now that Oklahoma has fallen.  In order for Baylor to get to the playoffs, the Bears must run the table, and that means almost assuredly having to beat Oklahoma twice.  A split puts Baylor in either the Sugar Bowl or Cotton Bowl, if that it their only loss.

 

Out in the Pac-12, Utah and Oregon face key games this week.  Utah plays at Washington, while Oregon  plays at USC.  If both division leaders win, then they must be put in contention for a playoff spot if the Conference Championship Game winner is 12-1, while the runner-up is 11-2.

 

In the Group of 5 this week, SMU plays at Memphis, and the winner will be a co-leader with Cincinnati for the Cotton Bowl bid.  Appalachian State is still undefeated, but the Mountaineers will have to win out (including winning at South Carolina), while SMU will have to lose a game, before Appy has a chance to get to the Cotton Bowl. 

 

This Week’s Playoffs and Bowl Projections

American Athletic

SMU held on to a narrow road win against Houston, so the Mustangs are the current top Group of 5 team in line to play at home in the Cotton Bowl.  Memphis is still alive only by a fluke missed chip-shot field goal by Tulsa.  Cincinnati and Navy still have shots at that Cotton Bowl bid, while Central Florida is still around with two losses should a bunch of teams lose in November.

East Carolina, Houston, and South Florida still have minute chances to get bowl eligible, but our ratings are calling for all three to miss out.  Tulane needs one more win to become bowl eligible, and they must beat Tulsa this weekend, or the Green Wave could miss out.  Their final three games are tough.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 7

 

Atlantic Coast

Clemson should be able to coast home with a 13-0 record and Playoff bid.  The Tigers should win their final four regular season games by margins of 20 or more every week.  The Coastal Division will probably send a 5-3 team to the ACC Championship Game, and other than North Carolina looking for revenge, we don’t see any of the other contenders making the title game close.

Notre Dame caucuses with the ACC for bowl bids, and with no viable ACC team looking formidable, the Irish will most likely take the next bowl in the ACC pecking order.  This week, we are going with a Big Ten team in the Orange Bowl, so for now it looks like the Citrus Bowl for the number two team in this group.

Including Notre Dame, there is a good chance that the ACC will have 12 bowl eligible teams, meaning there will be room for two additional at-large bowl bids.  The ACC has secondary agreements with the Birmingham and Gasparilla Bowls.  The Birmingham Bowl will most definitely need an at-large team, so ACC #11 will get that bid.  The Gasparilla Bowl most likely will not need an at-large team, but that ACC #12 will still receive an at-large bid.  With the SEC obviously falling well short this year, that #12 ACC team could end up in Memphis in the Liberty Bowl.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 12 (includes Notre Dame)

 

Big 12

With Oklahoma losing, for now, we are keeping the Big 12 out of the Playoffs.  There is still a 20% chance that either Baylor or Oklahoma run the table to stay in contention at the end.  One team will have to sweep the other to pull it off.

TCU’s upset of Texas (wasn’t really an upset) puts the Horned Frogs back into position to become bowl eligible, while Texas Tech’s loss to Kansas knocks the Red Raiders out of contention for now.  We’re not ready to put Les Miles and his Jayhawks into contention, but if KU knocks off Kansas State this weekend, then we might be forced to give them some consideration.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 7

 

Big Ten

Ohio State has an excellent chance to make the Playoffs as the top seed.  On the other hand, they might have to get there by beating an undefeated Penn State or Minnesota team, and they have to play at Michigan.  Could history from repeat itself from 50 years ago?  In 1969, the best ever Ohio State team coming off a really embarrassing blowout of Michigan the year before, went to Ann Arbor to face a two-loss Michigan team.  Michigan’s defense did the near-impossible, stopping the greatest Buckeye offense in school history.  We can hardly wait.

Indiana’s win at Nebraska virtually guarantees that the Hoosiers will become bowl eligible.  Illinois’s win over Purdue puts Lovie Smith’s Illini in strong contention for a bowl bid, while Purdue played itself out of contention.

Michigan State is struggling, but the Spartans should win six or seven games to become bowl eligible, while Nebraska is hoping the return of Adrian Martinez and games with Purdue and Maryland will get the Cornhuskers to 6-6.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 10

 

Conference USA

This is a down year for CUSA, as no team is in contention for the Group of 5 NY6 Bowl bid.  In the East, Marshall is now in control of their destiny thanks to a last-play 53-yard field goal against Western Kentucky.  Florida Atlantic and WKU are the other teams still in contention, but all three of these teams will get bowl bids.

In the West, it is looking like there could be a three-way tie between Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, and UAB.  North Texas is suffering a disappointing year, and the Mean Green have been removed from bowl contention by our ratings.

We expect CUSA to have on more bowl eligible team than it has bowl contracts, and that sixth team might be headed to Shreveport, Louisiana in late December.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 6

 

Independents

(not including Notre Dame, which counts with the ACC)

This has turned into a disappointing season for Army, and we now have the Black Knights finishing under .500.  Brigham Young has an automatic bowl bid to Hawaii if the Cougars go 6-6 or better.  6-6 is the most likely record for BYU.

Liberty has not been to a bowl in its short history in FBS football, but the Flames have a secondary agreement with the Cure Bowl should the Cure Bowl need an at-large team.  This week, for the first time, we have the Cure Bowl needing an at-large team, so Hugh Freeze might be staying quite warm in Florida in December.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 2

 

Mid-American

This is a down year in the MAC, but the parity is going to lead to many more bowl eligible teams than the MAC has bowls to place them.  The MAC has five guaranteed bowl bids plus secondary agreements with two others.  One of those other secondary agreements is the Quick Lane Bowl which will not need an at-large team.  The Frisco Bowl always needs an at-large team, since there is only one tie-in, so the MAC can expect a second consecutive bowl bid there.  This year, the MAC is likely to see at least one additional team go to a bowl that has no MACtion secondary agreement.  Because our ratings this week forecast 79 bowl eligible teams, the odd team out is likely to be a 6-6 MAC team.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 8 (But only 7 will receive bids)

 

Mountain West

The Mountain West will most likely lose its secondary chance at the Hawaii and Cheez-it Bowls, which means that the league will only have five guaranteed bowl bids.  This league will most likely have seven bowl eligible teams, so two members will be headed East and South in December.

Boise State still remains in contention for the Group of 5 NY6 bid to the Cotton Bowl, but the Broncos still have three tough tests remaining.  They must beat Utah State and Wyoming and then the West Division representative in the MWC Championship Game.  For now, we have Boise winning the championship but not getting the Cotton Bowl bid.

Air Force has a chance to finish 10-2, and the Falcons could be moved out of the MWC’s bowl tie-ins in order to fly east to a more prestigious bowl, maybe replacing the SEC in a Southern bowl game.  Air Force can fill up most stadiums with Cadets, and they don’t have problems with airline reservations.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 7

 

Pac-12

Oregon and Utah still have minor chances to sneak into the Playoffs, but until teams like Clemson, Ohio State, Alabama, LSU, and Penn State start losing games, we will put the league champion in Pasadena.

This week, we remove California from bowl contention and put rival Stanford back in.  We also remove Arizona for now, so there will not be extra bowl eligible teams if our scenario plays itself out.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 7

 

Southeastern

It may be the strongest league in college football, but the SEC is going to be the league that causes multiple bowls to look elsewhere for at-large teams.  The Independence and Birmingham Bowls must already be looking at potential at-large teams.  The Belk, Liberty, and Music City Bowls might also wish to start looking around for potential at-large teams.

If both Alabama and LSU make the playoffs, and then Florida and Georgia (or Auburn) then receive Sugar and Orange Bowl bids, four teams are already removed before the meat of the bowls look for what’s left.

Because Missouri is ineligible for a bowl, and Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, and South Carolina look to be out of bowl contention, an Ole Miss Egg Bowl win over Mississippi State will likely leave the SEC with just 8 Bowl Eligible teams.  Only four teams will remain for the nine SEC spots needed to fulfill the SEC’s bowl contracts.

The Citrus, Outback, Gator, and Texas Bowls are the bowls that the SEC will need to fill.  That leaves the Belk, Music City, Liberty, Birmingham, and Independence Bowls without SEC teams.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 8

 

Sun Belt

Congratulations go out to Georgia State for joining Appy State as teams already eligible for bowls this year.  Appy State is hoping for a miracle.  If the Mountaineers win at South Carolina and finish the regular season 13-0, there is a chance they  could get the Cotton Bowl bid.  For now, we see them coming up one game short.

Louisiana is one win away from becoming bowl eligible, while Arkansas State and Georgia Southern have legitimate paths to bowl eligibility, and UL-Monroe has a path, just not as legitimate as the other two.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 5

 

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Western Michigan	Marshall
Frisco	AAC	At-large	SMU	[Miami (O)]
Cure	AAC	SBC	[Liberty]	Arkansas St.
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	Louisiana Tech	San Diego St.
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Memphis	Eastern Michigan
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Central Michigan	Louisiana
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Pac-12	Boise St.	Washington St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	Southern Miss.	Appalachian St.
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Central Florida	Florida Atlantic
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC	BYU	Navy
Independence	ACC	SEC	Florida St.	[Western Kentucky]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	North Carolina St.	Illiois
Military	ACC	AAC	Pittsburgh	Temple
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	North Carolina	Michigan St.
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Texas A&M
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	USC	Michigan
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	TCU	Stanford
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Virginia Tech	Oklahoma St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Cincinnati	Baylor
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	UAB	[Utah St.]
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	Washington	Iowa
Music City	SEC	ACC	[Air Force]	Louisville
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Georgia	Penn St.
Belk	ACC	SEC	Wake Forest	[Buffalo]
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Virginia	Arizona St.
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Iowa St.	[Duke]
Arizona	SBC	MWC	Georgia Southern	San Jose St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Kansas St.	Oregon
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Auburn	Notre Dame
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Indiana	Tennessee
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Minnesota	Utah
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	Florida
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulane	[Miami (Fla.)]
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	Kentucky	Wisconsin
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Toledo	Wyoming
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	Nebraska	Hawaii
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Ohio U	Georgia St.
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	Ohio St.	LSU
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	Alabama	Clemson
Championship	Fiesta	Peach	Ohio St.	Alabama
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

PiRate Ratings Picks For October 24-28, 2019

It couldn’t last.  Our winning streak ended soon after it began, and both the PiRate Picks and Experimental Davey19 picks fell to the losing side last week.  We’re back at it again hoping that maybe if you see a game you have thought about wagering real money on the outcome, you will see that we agree with you, and you will quickly forget playing that game.

Remember, the PiRates do not wager real money on football games, and we encourage you not to use our picks as handicapping aids if you happen to play for real.  These picks are free and are priced exactly where they need to be.

PiRate Picks

This week, we add a new twist that hasn’t been shown here in several years.  We are going to make a few 6-point teaser picks (2-game parlays @ 10-11 odds)

College 6-point Teaser

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Connecticut	Massachusetts	4	UConn
Memphis	Tulsa	4.5	Memphis

 

College 6-point Teaser

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Texas A&M	Mississippi St.	4.5	Texas A&M
Iowa	Northwestern	4	Iowa

 

College 6-point Teaser

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Miami (Fla.)	Pittsburgh	0.5	Pittsburgh
Arkansas St.	Texas St.	5.5	Arkansas St.

 

College 10-point Teaser

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
SMU	Houston	4	SMU
Central Michigan	Buffalo	7.5	Buffalo
Purdue	Illinois	20	Illinois

 

College 10-point Teaser

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Liberty	Rutgers	17	Rutgers
Rice	Southern Miss.	0.5	Southern Miss
Wyoming	Nevada	4	Wyoming

 

College 10-point Teaser

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Fresno St.	Colorado St.	4.5	Fresno St
Georgia Southern	N. Mexico St.	4.5	Ga. Southern
Iowa St.	Oklahoma St.	0.5	Iowa St.

 

College 10-point Teaser

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Ohio	Ball St.	7.5	Ball St.
Oklahoma	Kansas St.	13.5	Oklahoma
Minnesota	Maryland	6.5	Minnesota

 

College 10-point Teaser

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Texas	TCU	11.5	TCU
Ohio St.	Wisconsin	4.5	Ohio St.
LSU	Auburn	0.5	LSU

 

College 13-point Teaser

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Troy	Georgia St.	12	Georgia St.
Penn St.	Michigan St.	19.5	Michigan St.
Middle Tennessee	Florida Int’l.	10.5	Fla. Intl
South Carolina	Tennessee	17.5	Tennessee

 

NFL 10-point Teaser

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Minnesota	Washington	6.5	Minnesota
N.Y. Giants	Detroit	3	Detroit
Tampa Bay	Tennessee	7.5	Tennessee

 

NFL 10-point Teaser

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
LA Chargers	Chicago	6	Chicago
N.Y. Jets	Jacksonville	4	Jacksonville
Philadelphia	Buffalo	8.5	Buffalo

 

NFL 10-point Teaser

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
LA Rams	Cincinnati	3	LA Rams
New Orleans	Arizona	0.5	New Orleans
Oakland	Houston	3	Houston

 

NFL 10-point Teaser

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Denver	Indianapolis	4.5	Indianapolis
New England	Cleveland	3	New England
Miami	Pittsburgh	4.5	Pittsburgh

 

Davey19 Selections

College Picks Against The Spread

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Connecticut	Massachusetts	10	UMass
Purdue	Illinois	10	Illinois
Central Florida	Temple	11	Temple
Buffalo	Central Michigan	2.5	Buffalo
Liberty	Rutgers	7.5	Rutgers
Marshall	Western Kentucky	5	Western Kentucky
Iowa St.	Oklahoma St.	10.5	Oklahoma St.
Ball St.	Ohio	2.5	Ball St.
North Texas	Charlotte	4.5	Charlotte

 

Note: For those of you that play for real, please be aware that in both college and pro football this weekend, Miami is playing Pittsburgh at Heinz Stadium.  Don’t confuse the games on the card.

The Pitt Panthers and Miami of Florida Hurricanes face off Saturday at Noon Eastern Daylight Time.  The Steelers host the Dolphins on Monday Night at 8:20 PM Eastern Daylight Time.

 

And, as a reminder, next Sunday’s NFL games will kick off in Standard Time.  Daylight Savings Time goes to bed Sunday morning at 2 AM, November 3.  It never ceases to amaze us as to how many 9 to 5 workers fail to notice that one of their car’s headlights, taillights, brake lights, or signal lights is not working, until after the clocks are set back in the Fall, and they drive home from work in the dark. 

Please check all your lights before you turn your clock back an hour.  Darkness at 4:30 PM always leads to increased traffic accidents in large cities, so play it safe and prepare by becoming a better defensive driver.  The life you save, may be mine.