The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 14, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For November 14-18, 2019

Your 1962 New York Mets of Selections

The lovable 1962 New York Mets won 40 games in their initial season in Major League Baseball.  There were a couple of star players, and the rest of the roster belonged in the International League.  

That’s how our selections have fared this year.  A couple of times, we came up with some incredible wins on some long shot picks, but the rest of the time, our picks belonged in the bush leagues.

The good thing about the Mets was that eventually 1969 came, and they performed miracles in winning the World Series.  Of course, having player development that brought them Tom Seaver, Jerry Koosman, Nolan Ryan, Cleon Jones, Jerry Grote, and Bud Harrelson, as well as some nice acquisitions in Tommie Agee and Donn Clendenon, made their roster quite strong.  The PiRate Ratings have not developed any young talent in the last few weeks with hopes that a wagering week like 1969 will create a second miracle.

On the other hand, this has historically been the week that our ratings have enjoyed the most over the last 10 years.  The third week of November has brought us our highest return on imaginary investment (our picks are for entertainment purposes and never actually wagered on by us) of the season.

Three years ago, we hit on some outrageous parlays and outright picks against the spread, making a slight ROI on the year into a windfall profit margin.  Two years ago, we turned a slight deficit on the year into a nice profit that when combined with the bowl season gave us another year in the black.  Last year, we went from large deficit to almost break even after this week.

You can see the trend.  Every year, this week turned the momentum in our direction, but each year, this week reversed more malaise than the previous season.  In 2019, we find ourselves so deep in the whole that even the best ever finish on this week will still leave us well in the red.

So, remember, even though  this week has been rather successful for us in the past, please DO NOT WAGER your money on what you will read below.  If we have not faith in these picks, why should you?

Disclaimer: This does not apply to those handful of Smarts that somehow take our spreads and other data and make money off them somehow in Nevada and in the Caribbean.  How you do it, we do not know.  But, we do know that a group of Smarts uses our ratings and consistently beats the books.  

This week, we are going to issue a few less choices overall, but this is because we feel the heat on us.  This has been a winning week so many times for us that we spent an extra 10 minutes or so per selection looking them over.  We found a couple of special teasers that cross over the important spread numbers.  We isolated on some money line parlays that we feel strong about.

As for our experimental Davey19 system, the biggest difference in the line and its predicted score just so happened to pop up this week.  There is a reason for this.  The oddsmakers definitely consider psychological factors when making the line.  Davey19 has no personality.  Davey is a computer program with no emotion.  

What game are we talking about?  The Iowa-Minnesota game in Iowa City has the Gophers playing on the road in a tough environment coming off their monumental home win over Penn State.  The oddsmakers have Iowa favored in this game as a trap for Minnesota.  Davey19 strictly picks games when its experimental spread differs from the line by more than 3.5 points.  Davey19 says Minnesota is a touchdown better than Iowa at Kinnick Stadium.  That’s a full 10 points different.  Minnesota might indeed suffer a letdown, but 10 points of letdown is a lot.  And, the Gophers aren’t just playing a game following an upset win.  They have a lot more to play for now.  They have the Playoffs in their sites, and for now, every game is the biggest game in school history since Sandy Stephens, Roger Hagberg, and Bobby Bell played for the #3 Gophers against #1 Iowa in 1960.  Yes, this is the biggest game in Minnesota history since they played Iowas 59 years ago and basically secured the national championship with a convincing win over the #1 team.

Without further adieu, here are our picks for the week.

 

PiRate Picks

College Money Line Parlays

 

#1–3 Games at +142

Winner

Loser

Virginia Tech

Georgia Tech

Georgia Southern

UL-Monroe

Middle Tennessee

Rice

 

#2–3 Games at +148

Winner

Loser

Marshall

Louisiana Tech

Florida

Missouri

Kansas St.

West Virginia

 

#3–4 Games at +133

Winner

Loser

Michigan

Michigan St.

Kentucky

Vanderbilt

Duke

Syracuse

Texas A&M

South Carolina

 

#4–2 Games at +134

Winner

Loser

Notre Dame

Navy

Georgia

Auburn

 

#5–3 Games at +151

Winner

Loser

Memphis

Houston

Air Force

Colorado St.

Louisville

N. Carolina St.

 

NFL 10-Point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Minnesota

Denver

0.5

Minnesota

Oakland

Cincinnati

0.5

Oakland

Chicago

LA Rams

3.5

LA Rams

 

NFL 13-Point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Cleveland

Pittsburgh

16

Pittsburgh

Tampa Bay

New Orleans

7.5

New Orleans

Atlanta

Carolina

7.5

Carolina

Washington

N.Y. Jets

14.5

N.Y. Jets

 

Davey19

An Experimental College Football Selection System

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Fresno St.

San Diego St.

1

San Diego St.

Ball St.

Central Michigan

2.5

Ball St.

USC

California

6.5

USC

TCU

Texas Tech

3.5

Texas Tech

Southern Miss.

UTSA

17

UTSA

LSU

Ole Miss

21

Ole Miss

Iowa

Minnesota

3

Minnesota

 

 

 

November 7, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For November 7-11, 2019

Welcome to Thursday Comedy Relief.  It’s official now: this is the worst season in the 21st Century for PiRate Picks.  As we always tell you, these picks are free and maybe not worth what you pay for them.  In past years, we have had better access to information that has been unavailable to us, and so these picks are not going to be as reliable as when we were actually winning consistently.

We know that some of you reading this have discovered the little “secret” system in our regular weekly ratings that through super computer programming, you can come up with a half-dozen or so picks that are rewarding you with better than 62% wins.  It’s so secret, that we do not know the real particulars, and we unwisely recommended that you not tell us how you are doing it, because it might be too tempting to try it ourselves and then lose our mortgage payments (figuratively, since we burned our mortgage some time ago).

This is the absolute best week for college football to date.  This week’s games between Alabama and LSU, preceded by Minnesota and Penn State, and including Baylor-TCU, Iowa State-Oklahoma, and even including the best FCS game of the year and the celebration of the 150th anniversary of college football–undefeated Princeton versus undefeated Dartmouth at Yankee Stadium, we know that a lot of you love to add a little excitement when watching these top games.

Please, please, please, disregard our selections when considering whether or not you will wager on these games.  We are hitting 48% in our selections this year.  That’s total crappy status.  You cannot win at 48%, because even if you wager the exact opposite, at 52% you still lose.  None of your reading this feature are one of those folks with the supercomputer winning on 63+% of the wagers that our ratings somehow pop up 6-10 games per week, and our selections below are not part of that system.

 

This Week’s PiRate Picks

College Games

10-point Teasers

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Florida St.

Boston College

11

Boston College

Ohio St.

Maryland

32

Ohio St.

Michigan St.

Illinois

24.5

Illinois

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Florida

Vanderbilt

16.5

Florida

Ole Miss

N. Mexico St.

38.5

N. Mexico St.

Kentucky

Tennessee

11

Tennessee

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Georgia

Ole Miss

6.5

Georgia

Virginia

Georgia Tech

26

Georgia Tech

BYU

Liberty

27

Liberty

 

13-Point Teasers

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Texas Tech

West Virginia

15.5

West Virginia

Miami (Fla.)

Louisville

19.5

Louisville

Wake Forest

Virginia Tech

15.5

Virginia Tech

Penn St.

Minnesota

20

Minnesota

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Northwestern

Purdue

15.5

Purdue

Charlotte

UTEP

Pk

Charlotte

Baylor

TCU

10.5

TCU

Oklahoma

Iowa St.

1.5

Oklahoma

 

College Money Line Parlay –4 games at +268

 

Winner

Loser

Louisiana Tech

North Texas

Fresno St.

Utah St.

Notre Dame

Duke

Washington

Oregon St.

 

NFL Games

13-Point Teasers

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

LA Chargers

Oakland

14.5

Oakland

New Orleans

Atlanta

Pk

New Orleans

Cincinnati

Baltimore

3

Baltimore

Carolina

Green Bay

8

Green Bay

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Chicago

Detroit

15.5

Detroit

Miami

Indianapolis

2.5

Indianapolis

N.Y. Jets

N.Y. Giants

10.5

N.Y. Giants

Tampa Bay

Arizona

17.5

Arizona

 

Money Line Parlay –2 Games at +149

 

Winner

Loser

N.Y. Giants

N.Y. Jets

Green Bay

Carolina

 

 

Davey19 Experimental Picks

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Louisiana

Coastal Carolina

14.5

Coastal Carolina

Michigan St.

Illinois

15

Illinois

Boise St.

Wyoming

13.5

Wyoming

Alabama

LSU

5.5

Alabama

Troy

Georgia Southern

3

Georgia Southern

Kentucky

Tennessee

1

Tennessee

Louisiana Tech

North Texas

5

Louisiana Tech

 

 

November 3, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: November 3, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:46 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday

November 5

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Toledo

Kent St.

2.8

3.2

3.2

Western Michigan

Ball St.

10.9

10.5

10.8

 

 

Wednesday

November 6

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Ohio U

Miami (O)

7.4

7.8

7.5

 

 

Thursday

November 7

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Coastal Carolina

Louisiana

-11.7

-10.7

-12.1

South Florida

Temple

-3.9

-1.8

-4.3

 

 

Friday

November 8

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Oregon St.

Washington

-11.6

-10.2

-12.9

Tulsa

Central Florida

-18.6

-17.1

-18.3

 

 

Saturday

November 9

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Alabama

LSU

9.2

8.4

9.9

Arizona St.

USC

2.9

1.8

3.1

Arkansas

Western Kentucky

5.8

5.1

3.9

Army

Massachusetts

38.5

36.9

39.1

Boise St.

Wyoming

9.9

7.7

9.6

Boston College

Florida St.

2.6

2.4

3.0

BYU

Liberty

17.2

15.9

17.4

California

Washington St.

-7.1

-6.7

-7.3

Cincinnati

Connecticut

38.8

34.5

40.2

Colorado

Stanford

-5.5

-5.1

-5.6

Duke

Notre Dame

-7.7

-6.5

-7.3

Florida

Vanderbilt

28.5

26.9

29.3

Florida Atlantic

Florida Int’l.

9.4

9.5

10.9

Fresno St.

Utah St.

-1.0

0.9

-1.2

Georgia

Missouri

18.1

18.6

18.6

Hawaii

San Jose St.

12.0

11.5

11.1

Kentucky

Tennessee

2.2

1.0

2.0

Louisiana Tech

North Texas

6.4

7.1

6.2

Miami (Fla.)

Louisville

10.7

10.4

11.8

Michigan St.

Illinois

14.0

12.1

13.9

Minnesota

Penn St.

-3.9

-3.1

-4.5

New Mexico

Air Force

-21.4

-20.3

-23.4

North Carolina St.

Clemson

-35.7

-33.8

-36.9

Northwestern

Purdue

1.5

0.5

0.7

Ohio St.

Maryland

42.4

42.6

44.9

Oklahoma

Iowa St.

11.8

10.3

11.2

Old Dominion

UTSA

0.7

-1.1

0.9

Ole Miss

New Mexico St.

33.0

30.0

32.9

San Diego St.

Nevada

14.7

14.9

15.2

SMU

East Carolina

26.3

24.6

27.0

South Carolina

Appalachian St.

8.1

7.4

8.1

Southern Miss.

UAB

7.0

4.0

6.5

TCU

Baylor

-4.1

-1.7

-3.2

Texas

Kansas St.

0.7

1.0

0.6

Texas St.

South Alabama

9.8

7.8

9.8

Troy

Georgia Southern

-2.9

-2.1

-3.5

UL-Monroe

Georgia St.

-4.1

-5.0

-4.3

UTEP

Charlotte

-15.1

-11.5

-14.9

Virginia

Georgia Tech

15.8

17.6

15.9

Virginia Tech

Wake Forest

-1.5

-1.0

-1.5

West Virginia

Texas Tech

1.2

0.7

1.6

Wisconsin

Iowa

4.3

5.7

4.3

 

Special Game–150th Anniversary of College Football

Dartmouth and Princeton will play Saturday at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx at 3:30 PM EST.  The game is available on ESPNU, and both teams sport perfect 7-0 records in the FCS Division.  It will mark the 150th anniversary of college football.  Princeton (known then as the College of New Jersey until 1896) and Rutgers met for the first college game in November 6, 1869, and Rutgers won that game 6 goals to 4.

This might be the most important Ivy League game since 8-0-0 Harvard and 8-0-0 Yale battled to an unbelievable 29-29 tie to conclude the 1968 season.  Yale led 29-13 with less than a minute to play, and Harvard scored twice with successful two-point conversions to tie the game and claim part of the Ivy League Championship.

Dartmouth and Princeton have been the top two programs in recent Ivy League history.  Both teams have enjoyed some incredible seasons in the distant past as well.  The 1970 Darmouth team was the best in Ivy League history, as they won the Lambert Trophy for best overall team from the East and finished ranked in the top 20 in the nation after  finishing 9-0.  That Dartmouth team surrendered just 42 points all season, but they didn’t give up a point in their final four games.

Princeton was one of the final teams in major college football to use the old Single Wing offense.  The Tigers went 9-0 and won the Ivy League in 1964, but their 1950 and 1951 teams that went undefeated finished number six in the AP Poll, and star back Dick Kazmaier won the 1951 Heisman Trophy.

The Ivy League isn’t Division 1 any more, and the champion doesn’t even get to go to the FCS Playoffs, but this is still an incredible game worth watching if you have a second monitor to watch in addition to that other 3:30 PM game in Tuscaloosa, AL.

The PiRate Ratings do not rate FCS teams the same way as we rate FBS teams.  We can estimate a power rating based on a former PiRate Formula, which we used from 1980 to 1996.

The estimate for this game is: 

Dartmouth 19

Princeton 16

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Ohio St.

139.0

138.1

140.1

139.1

2

Clemson

135.3

133.0

136.3

134.9

3

Alabama

135.6

132.5

136.3

134.8

4

L S U

129.4

127.1

129.3

128.6

5

Georgia

126.7

124.8

126.7

126.1

6

Penn St.

124.9

124.1

125.2

124.8

7

Utah

123.7

122.6

124.5

123.6

8

Oklahoma

123.5

122.7

123.2

123.1

9

Michigan

123.0

121.6

123.3

122.6

10

Auburn

122.5

120.8

122.3

121.9

11

Oregon

121.2

121.3

122.5

121.7

12

Florida

122.8

119.9

122.3

121.6

13

Wisconsin

120.4

120.0

120.3

120.2

14

Iowa

119.1

117.3

119.0

118.4

15

Minnesota

118.1

117.9

117.8

117.9

16

Notre Dame

116.4

114.7

116.0

115.7

17

Texas A&M

116.2

114.6

115.1

115.3

18

Iowa St.

114.8

115.4

115.0

115.1

19

Washington

114.3

114.0

115.3

114.5

20

Central Florida

113.5

112.8

114.2

113.5

21

Baylor

113.5

113.5

112.8

113.3

22

Washington St.

113.0

112.2

113.5

112.9

23

Kansas St.

112.3

112.2

112.3

112.3

24

Michigan St.

112.7

111.8

112.2

112.2

25

Mississippi St.

110.8

107.5

114.7

111.0

26

South Carolina

111.7

110.0

111.1

110.9

27

Missouri

111.6

109.2

111.1

110.6

28

Indiana

110.6

109.6

110.3

110.2

29

Oklahoma St.

110.0

110.7

109.7

110.1

30

Texas

109.9

110.2

109.9

110.0

31

Tennessee

109.5

109.3

108.6

109.1

32

T C U

107.3

109.8

107.6

108.2

33

Kentucky

108.7

107.3

107.6

107.9

34

Virginia

107.7

107.8

107.9

107.8

35

U S C

107.3

107.8

107.6

107.6

36

Miami (Fla.)

107.2

106.8

108.3

107.4

37

Arizona St.

107.2

106.5

107.7

107.2

38

Cincinnati

107.0

106.0

107.4

106.8

39

Wake Forest

106.5

106.0

107.0

106.5

40

SMU

106.2

105.9

107.1

106.4

41

Memphis

105.9

105.9

106.7

106.2

42

Appalachian St.

106.6

105.6

106.0

106.1

43

Ole Miss

106.4

105.4

106.3

106.0

44

Boise St.

106.0

105.9

106.1

106.0

45

Pittsburgh

105.7

105.3

106.0

105.7

46

North Carolina

105.4

105.2

106.1

105.6

47

Duke

105.7

105.1

105.6

105.5

48

Air Force

103.7

105.0

104.5

104.4

49

Texas Tech

104.4

104.6

103.5

104.2

50

Stanford

104.0

103.3

103.7

103.7

51

Florida St.

103.6

103.5

103.6

103.6

52

Purdue

103.6

103.4

102.9

103.3

53

BYU

103.2

103.2

103.4

103.3

54

Boston College

103.2

102.9

103.6

103.2

55

Nebraska

103.1

103.6

102.3

103.0

56

California

102.8

102.4

103.3

102.8

57

West Virginia

102.7

102.3

102.1

102.3

58

Virginia Tech

102.0

102.0

102.5

102.2

59

Illinois

101.7

102.6

101.3

101.9

60

Northwestern

102.5

101.4

101.2

101.7

61

U C L A

101.7

101.6

101.5

101.6

62

Louisiana

101.3

101.6

101.4

101.4

63

Tulane

99.7

100.5

100.2

100.1

64

Oregon St.

99.8

100.8

99.5

100.0

65

Wyoming

99.0

101.2

99.6

99.9

66

Louisville

99.6

99.4

99.5

99.5

67

Navy

97.9

100.5

98.9

99.1

68

Utah St.

99.2

98.4

99.8

99.1

69

Maryland

99.6

98.5

98.2

98.8

70

Western Michigan

98.8

97.9

98.7

98.5

71

San Diego St.

97.9

99.6

97.7

98.4

72

Temple

98.3

97.5

99.1

98.3

73

Syracuse

98.5

97.7

97.8

98.0

74

Houston

97.0

97.9

99.1

98.0

75

Georgia Southern

96.9

96.7

96.4

96.7

76

Arizona

96.7

96.5

96.2

96.5

77

North Carolina St.

96.6

96.2

96.5

96.4

78

Vanderbilt

97.3

96.0

96.0

96.4

79

Florida Atlantic

95.6

95.5

96.9

96.0

80

Kansas

95.5

96.5

95.4

95.8

81

Fresno St.

95.2

96.2

95.6

95.7

82

Hawaii

95.2

96.6

94.3

95.4

83

Colorado

95.5

95.2

95.1

95.2

84

Georgia Tech

94.8

93.2

95.0

94.3

85

Ohio

94.4

93.5

94.9

94.3

86

Southern Miss.

94.6

93.3

94.8

94.2

87

Louisiana Tech

94.0

94.4

94.3

94.2

88

Army

94.1

94.2

93.4

93.9

89

Buffalo

92.9

93.6

94.4

93.6

90

Georgia St.

92.5

93.8

92.2

92.8

91

Tulsa

91.8

92.7

92.9

92.5

92

Arkansas

92.2

92.2

91.6

92.0

93

South Florida

91.4

92.6

91.8

91.9

94

Troy

91.6

92.1

90.5

91.4

95

Arkansas St.

91.3

91.6

91.2

91.4

96

Marshall

90.8

90.4

91.6

90.9

97

U A B

90.1

91.8

90.7

90.9

98

North Texas

90.6

90.2

91.1

90.6

99

Ball St.

90.4

89.9

90.4

90.2

100

Western Kentucky

89.4

90.2

90.8

90.1

101

Liberty

89.5

90.8

89.6

89.9

102

Middle Tennessee

89.8

89.0

89.9

89.6

103

Northern Illinois

89.5

88.7

89.6

89.3

104

Miami (Ohio)

89.5

88.2

89.9

89.2

105

Toledo

88.4

88.7

89.1

88.7

106

Central Michigan

88.2

88.8

89.1

88.7

107

Colorado St.

87.1

90.7

87.7

88.5

108

San Jose St.

87.7

89.5

87.7

88.3

109

Kent St.

87.6

87.4

87.9

87.6

110

Florida Int’l.

87.7

87.5

87.5

87.6

111

Coastal Carolina

87.2

88.4

86.8

87.5

112

Nevada

86.2

87.7

85.5

86.5

113

Charlotte

86.1

86.4

86.5

86.3

114

Louisiana-Monroe

85.8

86.4

85.4

85.9

115

Eastern Michigan

84.2

84.3

84.5

84.4

116

Rutgers

84.1

83.8

82.9

83.6

117

U N L V

83.1

84.7

82.7

83.5

118

East Carolina

82.9

84.3

83.1

83.4

119

Texas St.

81.8

82.3

81.0

81.7

120

New Mexico

79.8

82.2

78.5

80.2

121

Rice

79.5

80.4

78.7

79.6

122

New Mexico St.

76.4

78.5

76.4

77.1

123

Texas-San Antonio

75.6

77.7

75.5

76.2

124

South Alabama

74.5

77.0

73.7

75.1

125

Bowling Green

74.1

73.9

74.1

74.1

126

Old Dominion

73.8

74.0

73.9

73.9

127

Connecticut

71.2

74.5

70.2

72.0

128

U T E P

68.5

72.5

69.1

70.0

129

Akron

66.9

66.7

65.6

66.4

130

Massachusetts

58.6

60.3

57.3

58.7

 

PiRate Ratings For Conference

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

113.5

112.8

114.2

113.5

4-1

7-2

Cincinnati

107.0

106.0

107.4

106.8

4-0

7-1

Temple

98.3

97.5

99.1

98.3

2-2

5-3

South Florida

91.4

92.6

91.8

91.9

2-2

4-4

East Carolina

82.9

84.3

83.1

83.4

0-5

3-6

Connecticut

71.2

74.5

70.2

72.0

0-5

2-7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

SMU

106.2

105.9

107.1

106.4

4-1

8-1

Memphis

105.9

105.9

106.7

106.2

4-1

8-1

Tulane

99.7

100.5

100.2

100.1

3-2

6-3

Navy

97.9

100.5

98.9

99.1

5-1

7-1

Houston

97.0

97.9

99.1

98.0

1-4

3-6

Tulsa

91.8

92.7

92.9

92.5

0-5

2-7

AAC Averages

96.9

97.6

97.6

97.3

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

135.3

133.0

136.3

134.9

6-0

9-0

Wake Forest

106.5

106.0

107.0

106.5

3-1

7-1

Florida St.

103.6

103.5

103.6

103.6

3-4

4-5

Boston College

103.2

102.9

103.6

103.2

3-3

5-4

Louisville

99.6

99.4

99.5

99.5

3-2

5-3

Syracuse

98.5

97.7

97.8

98.0

0-5

3-6

North Carolina St.

96.6

96.2

96.5

96.4

1-3

4-4

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Virginia

107.7

107.8

107.9

107.8

4-2

6-3

Miami (Fla.)

107.2

106.8

108.3

107.4

3-3

5-4

Pittsburgh

105.7

105.3

106.0

105.7

3-2

6-3

North Carolina

105.4

105.2

106.1

105.6

3-3

4-5

Duke

105.7

105.1

105.6

105.5

2-3

4-4

Virginia Tech

102.0

102.0

102.5

102.2

3-2

5-3

Georgia Tech

94.8

93.2

95.0

94.3

1-4

2-6

ACC Averages

105.1

104.6

105.4

105.0

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

123.5

122.7

123.2

123.1

4-1

7-1

Iowa St.

114.8

115.4

115.0

115.1

3-2

5-3

Baylor

113.5

113.5

112.8

113.3

5-0

8-0

Kansas St.

112.3

112.2

112.3

112.3

3-2

6-2

Oklahoma St.

110.0

110.7

109.7

110.1

3-3

6-3

Texas

109.9

110.2

109.9

110.0

3-2

5-3

T C U

107.3

109.8

107.6

108.2

2-3

4-4

Texas Tech

104.4

104.6

103.5

104.2

1-4

3-5

West Virginia

102.7

102.3

102.1

102.3

1-4

3-5

Kansas

95.5

96.5

95.4

95.8

1-5

3-6

Big 12 Averages

109.4

109.8

109.1

109.4

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

139.0

138.1

140.1

139.1

5-0

8-0

Penn St.

124.9

124.1

125.2

124.8

5-0

8-0

Michigan

123.0

121.6

123.3

122.6

4-2

7-2

Michigan St.

112.7

111.8

112.2

112.2

2-3

4-4

Indiana

110.6

109.6

110.3

110.2

4-2

7-2

Maryland

99.6

98.5

98.2

98.8

1-5

3-6

Rutgers

84.1

83.8

82.9

83.6

0-6

2-7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

120.4

120.0

120.3

120.2

3-2

6-2

Iowa

119.1

117.3

119.0

118.4

3-2

6-2

Minnesota

118.1

117.9

117.8

117.9

5-0

8-0

Purdue

103.6

103.4

102.9

103.3

2-4

3-6

Nebraska

103.1

103.6

102.3

103.0

2-4

4-5

Illinois

101.7

102.6

101.3

101.9

3-3

5-4

Northwestern

102.5

101.4

101.2

101.7

0-6

1-7

Big Ten Averages

111.6

111.0

111.2

111.3

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Florida Atlantic

95.6

95.5

96.9

96.0

4-1

6-3

Marshall

90.8

90.4

91.6

90.9

4-1

6-3

Western Kentucky

89.4

90.2

90.8

90.1

4-2

5-4

Middle Tennessee

89.8

89.0

89.9

89.6

2-3

3-6

Florida Int’l.

87.7

87.5

87.5

87.6

3-3

5-4

Charlotte

86.1

86.4

86.5

86.3

2-3

4-5

Old Dominion

73.8

74.0

73.9

73.9

0-5

1-8

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Southern Miss.

94.6

93.3

94.8

94.2

3-1

5-3

Louisiana Tech

94.0

94.4

94.3

94.2

4-0

7-1

U A B

90.1

91.8

90.7

90.9

3-1

6-2

North Texas

90.6

90.2

91.1

90.6

3-2

4-5

Rice

79.5

80.4

78.7

79.6

0-5

0-9

Texas-San Antonio

75.6

77.7

75.5

76.2

2-2

3-5

U T E P

68.5

72.5

69.1

70.0

0-5

1-7

CUSA Averages

86.1

86.7

86.5

86.4

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

116.4

114.7

116.0

115.7

x

6-2

BYU

103.2

103.2

103.4

103.3

x

4-4

Army

94.1

94.2

93.4

93.9

x

3-6

Liberty

89.5

90.8

89.6

89.9

x

6-3

New Mexico St.

76.4

78.5

76.4

77.1

x

0-8

Massachusetts

58.6

60.3

57.3

58.7

x

1-8

Indep. Averages

89.7

90.3

89.3

89.8

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Ohio

94.4

93.5

94.9

94.3

3-1

4-4

Buffalo

92.9

93.6

94.4

93.6

3-2

5-4

Miami (Ohio)

89.5

88.2

89.9

89.2

3-1

4-4

Kent St.

87.6

87.4

87.9

87.6

2-2

3-5

Bowling Green

74.1

73.9

74.1

74.1

2-3

3-6

Akron

66.9

66.7

65.6

66.4

0-5

0-9

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

98.8

97.9

98.7

98.5

3-2

5-4

Ball St.

90.4

89.9

90.4

90.2

3-1

4-4

Northern Illinois

89.5

88.7

89.6

89.3

2-3

3-6

Toledo

88.4

88.7

89.1

88.7

2-2

5-3

Central Michigan

88.2

88.8

89.1

88.7

4-2

6-4

Eastern Michigan

84.2

84.3

84.5

84.4

1-4

4-5

MAC Averages

87.1

86.8

87.4

87.1

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Boise St.

106.0

105.9

106.1

106.0

4-0

7-1

Air Force

103.7

105.0

104.5

104.4

4-1

7-2

Wyoming

99.0

101.2

99.6

99.9

3-1

6-2

Utah St.

99.2

98.4

99.8

99.1

3-1

4-4

Colorado St.

87.1

90.7

87.7

88.5

3-2

4-5

New Mexico

79.8

82.2

78.5

80.2

0-5

2-7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

San Diego St.

97.9

99.6

97.7

98.4

4-1

7-1

Fresno St.

95.2

96.2

95.6

95.7

2-2

4-4

Hawaii

95.2

96.6

94.3

95.4

2-3

5-4

San Jose St.

87.7

89.5

87.7

88.3

1-4

4-5

Nevada

86.2

87.7

85.5

86.5

2-3

5-4

U N L V

83.1

84.7

82.7

83.5

1-5

2-7

MWC Averages

93.3

94.8

93.3

93.8

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

121.2

121.3

122.5

121.7

6-0

8-1

Washington

114.3

114.0

115.3

114.5

2-4

5-4

Washington St.

113.0

112.2

113.5

112.9

1-4

4-4

Stanford

104.0

103.3

103.7

103.7

3-3

4-4

California

102.8

102.4

103.3

102.8

1-4

4-4

Oregon St.

99.8

100.8

99.5

100.0

3-2

4-4

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

123.7

122.6

124.5

123.6

5-1

8-1

U S C

107.3

107.8

107.6

107.6

4-2

5-4

Arizona St.

107.2

106.5

107.7

107.2

2-3

5-3

U C L A

101.7

101.6

101.5

101.6

4-2

4-5

Arizona

96.7

96.5

96.2

96.5

2-4

4-5

Colorado

95.5

95.2

95.1

95.2

1-5

3-6

Pac-12 Averages

107.3

107.0

107.5

107.3

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

126.7

124.8

126.7

126.1

4-1

7-1

Florida

122.8

119.9

122.3

121.6

5-2

7-2

South Carolina

111.7

110.0

111.1

110.9

3-4

4-5

Missouri

111.6

109.2

111.1

110.6

2-2

5-3

Tennessee

109.5

109.3

108.6

109.1

2-3

4-5

Kentucky

108.7

107.3

107.6

107.9

2-4

4-4

Vanderbilt

97.3

96.0

96.0

96.4

1-4

2-6

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Alabama

135.6

132.5

136.3

134.8

5-0

8-0

L S U

129.4

127.1

129.3

128.6

4-0

8-0

Auburn

122.5

120.8

122.3

121.9

4-2

7-2

Texas A&M

116.2

114.6

115.1

115.3

3-2

6-3

Mississippi St.

110.8

107.5

114.7

111.0

2-4

4-5

Ole Miss

106.4

105.4

106.3

106.0

2-4

3-6

Arkansas

92.2

92.2

91.6

92.0

0-6

2-7

SEC Averages

114.4

112.6

114.2

113.7

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

106.6

105.6

106.0

106.1

4-1

7-1

Georgia Southern

96.9

96.7

96.4

96.7

3-1

5-3

Georgia St.

92.5

93.8

92.2

92.8

3-1

6-2

Troy

91.6

92.1

90.5

91.4

1-3

3-5

Coastal Carolina

87.2

88.4

86.8

87.5

1-3

4-4

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

101.3

101.6

101.4

101.4

3-1

6-2

Arkansas St.

91.3

91.6

91.2

91.4

3-2

5-4

Louisiana-Monroe

85.8

86.4

85.4

85.9

2-2

3-5

Texas St.

81.8

82.3

81.0

81.7

1-3

2-6

South Alabama

74.5

77.0

73.7

75.1

0-4

1-7

SBC Averages

91.0

91.6

90.5

91.0

 

Rating The Conferences

#

League

Average

1

Southeastern

113.7

2

Big Ten

111.3

3

Big 12

109.4

4

Pac-12

107.3

5

Atlantic Coast

105.0

6

American

97.3

7

Mountain West

93.8

8

Sun Belt

91.0

9

Independents

89.8

10

Mid-American

87.1

11

Conference USA

86.4

 

PiRate Rating Guess On Initial Top 4

Prediction on Selection Committee Choices on Tuesday

1

LSU

2

Ohio St.

3

Alabama

4

Penn St.

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1

Memphis

2

Cincinnati

3

Boise St.

4

Navy

5

SMU

Playoffs and Bowl Projections

 

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Buffalo

Marshall

Frisco

AAC

At-large

SMU

[Boise St.]

Cure

AAC

SBC

[Liberty]

Arkansas St.

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

UAB

Hawaii

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Tulane

Ohio

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Central Michigan

Georgia St.

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

San Diego St.

Oregon St.

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

Louisiana Tech

Louisiana

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Cincinnati

Florida Atlantic

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC

BYU

Navy

Independence

ACC

SEC

Miami (Fla.)

[Southern Miss.]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

North Carolina

Michigan St.

Military

ACC

AAC

Boston College

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

Virginia

Michigan

Texas

Big 12

SEC

Texas

Texas A&M

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

USC

Iowa

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

Iowa St.

Arizona St.

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Notre Dame

Oklahoma St.

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Memphis

Baylor

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

Western Kentucky

[Fresno St.]

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington

Illinois

Music City

SEC

ACC

[Ball St.]

Pittsburgh

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Wake Forest

Florida

Belk

ACC

SEC

Virginia Tech

Mississippi St.

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

Louisville

Washington St.

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

TCU

[Stanford]

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Appalachian St.

Air Force

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Kansas St.

Utah

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Auburn

Wisconsin

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Penn St.

Tennessee

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Minnesota

Oregon

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Oklahoma

Georgia

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Central Florida

[Duke]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Kentucky

Indiana

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Toledo

Utah St.

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

Nebraska

Wyoming

Dollar General

MAC

SBC

Western Michigan

Georgia Southern

 

 

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

Ohio St.

Clemson

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Alabama

LSU

 

 

Championship

Fiesta

Peach

Ohio St.

Alabama

 

 

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

This Is The Weekend

We don’t really need to say anything.  If you are reading this publication, you already know how incredible this weekend will be in college football.  On a typical November 9 in prior years, the incredible Princeton-Dartmouth game at Yankee Stadium might be the marquee game of the weekend.  Unfortunately, it starts at the same time as the biggie at Bryant-Denny.  Let’s take a brief look at the games that may make you want to stay home on Saturday, throw some logs on the fireplace, enjoy your favorite snacks and beverages, and watch two to three games at the same time.

 

12 Noon EST

 

 

Penn St. (8-0) at Minnesota (8-0)–ABC

The winner stays in the hunt for a Playoff spot, while the loser probably falls out of the Rose Bowl race.  Minnesota hasn’t played in a November game that had this type of importance since they played at Purdue in November of 1967 with a Rose Bowl bid on the line.  Purdue clobbered the Gophers that day, and even though Minnesota beat undefeated Indiana the following week, when the season ended in a three-way tie for first, Indiana received the Rose Bowl bid because Minnesota and Purdue had been in the Rose Bowl more recently (It was the Hoosiers’ only Rose Bowl invitation).

Penn State has been in the Rose Bowl more recently, but the Nittany Lions would consider a trip to Pasadena this year to be a failure.  James Franklin has his team in line for the Playoffs if they could upset Ohio State on the November 23 and then win the Big Ten Championship.  Of course, the same holds true for the Gophers.  Wins over Penn State, Iowa, Wisconsin, and then Ohio State would definitely put Minnesota in the Playoffs.  Consider this game the equivalent of a Sweet 16 game in the NCAA Basketball Tournament.

 

Baylor (8-0) at TCU (4-4)–FS1

This is a 100% definite trap game for the undefeated Bears.  Baylor hosts Oklahoma on November 16, and no matter how hard Coach Matt Rhule tries to convince his squad that TCU is good enough to beat them, the players are already counting down the days until the Sooners come to Waco.

TCU is on the verge of having to worry about where two more victories will come, so bowl eligibility is not yet a given in Forth Worth.  The Horned Frogs have to win two of their final four and have games at Texas Tech and Oklahoma, as well as a home finale with West Virginia.  They will be underdogs in three of their final four and must upset somebody to get to a bowl.

 

 

3:30 PM EST

 

LSU (8-0) at Alabama (8-0)–CBS

The knock against LSU in recent years was that the Tigers were too conservative on the offensive attack, and defense and running couldn’t beat Alabama and other behemoths.  This year, LSU’s offense can light it up against anybody, including Alabama’s defense.

The rub is that with the increased offensive efficiency and quick scoring passing attack, the Tigers’ defense has been forced to play up to 20 additional snaps per game, and opponents are finding ways to move the ball on the former tough defense.

All that’s changed is that LSU wins games 42-27 instead of 27-12.  A 15-point victory is a 15-point victory.  In the SEC, talent at each of the two-deep offenses and defenses just mean more than whether a team can pass the ball for 300 yards and score 30 points or hold the opponents to 250 total yards and 14 points.

Alabama still has the superior overall talent in the two-deeps on both sides of the ball.  In the past, Alabama might have won this game 24-14.  We believe they will continue to dominate this series and win it 45-35.  A 10-point superior team is still 10 points better than the other team.

 

Dartmouth (7-0) vs. Princeton (7-0) @ Yankee Stadium in the Bronx–ESPNU

This is the 150th Anniversary of College Football, so it is worth tuning in to watch when and if the big game is not as exciting.  It isn’t the original Yankee Stadium, but Yankee Stadium has been the site of many great college football games including the incredible Army-Notre Dame game of 1946, which ended 0-0.

 

Kansas St. (6-2) at Texas (5-3)–ESPN

Both teams are 3-2 in the Big 12, and they are still mathematically in the race for the number two spot in the Conference Championship Game.  Kansas State holds the tiebreaker over Oklahoma, so if the Wildcats can win out, and Oklahoma loses to Baylor or Oklahoma State, the Wildcats will play for a chance to go to the Sugar Bowl.

This has been a down year for Texas, and the Longhorns could be falling far enough to be placed in a bowl game in Houston against those Aggies.  The Texas Bowl would love that, but the Longhorns wouldn’t.

 

Illinois (5-4) at Michigan St. (4-4)–FS1

Why do we consider this game so important?  Illinois was given up for dead in early October, as the Illini appeared to be headed to a 6th or 7th place finish in the Big Ten West, and Coach Lovie Smith was probably on the way out.  Illinois had defeated Akron and Connecticut, two of the bottom 10 teams in the nation, and they had lost to Eastern Michigan.  At 2-4, Illinois then upset Wisconsin and followed that up with an impressive win at Purdue and a four-touchdown trouncing of Rutgers.  The Illini need one more victory to go bowling.  They are likely to get it against Northwestern to close out the season, but if Illinois can win at Michigan State, they will move up a couple of places in the bowl pecking order.

Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio is going to have to learn how to change or else he could be on his way toward retirement.  Dantonio is one of the lone holdovers to horse and buggy football.  Michigan State plays like it is still 1975, and the team that rushes for 200 yards and holds the other to less than 100 yards is going to win with relative ease.  That’s not how teams win these days.  If Sparty loses this game, there is a better than 50-50 chance that they will not get six wins or go to a bowl.  Even if they win this game, they may only be able to garner the lowly Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit.

 

Louisville (5-3) at Miami (Fla.) (5-4)–FS1

Louisville coach Scott Satterfield should receive some votes for ACC Coach of the Year, as the Cardinals were picked to finish last in the Atlantic Division, and they are most likely going to be bowl eligible.

Miami still has a small chance to win the Coastal Division, but a lot of things have to happen to make that a reality.  First and foremost is that the Hurricanes win their last three games.

The winner of this game becomes bowl eligible, and you should get the best from both teams, which will make this exciting enough to put an auxiliary monitor on this game.

 

4:00 PM EST

 

 

Iowa (6-2) at Wisconsin (6-2)–Fox

Minnesota has not clinched the West Division in the Big Ten, so the winner of this game remains in contention for the flag, since both must still play the Gophers.  If Penn State wins the 12:00 game, then whoever wins this one will get a chance to play Minnesota for first place later in November.

Expect a hard-fought, defensive struggle in this one, and the weather is expected to be cold and windy.  If you like the old blood and guts games of the 1950’s (yes, we know we have some gray-haired readers), then this is the game for you.  It could be one of those 12-10 games.

 

 

7:30 PM EST

 

 

Tennessee (4-5) at Kentucky (4-4)–SEC Network

How about a career saving resurrection?  Tennessee head coach Jeremy Pruitt was one step out the door in Knoxville a month ago.  At 1-4 with losses at home to Georgia State and BYU, the Vols looked like a potentially 2-10 or possible 1-11 team.

Tennessee was reborn after a blowout loss to Georgia.  Wins over Mississippi State, South Carolina, and UAB, and a loss to Alabama that was still in doubt into the fourth quarter has the Vols on the verge of becoming bowl eligible.

Kentucky began the season strong enough to contend for a New Year’s 6 Bowl.  Losing quarterback Terry Wilson probably cost the Wildcats two, possibly three wins to date, and Kentucky’s defense is not strong enough to hold Tennessee below 20 points in Lexington.  Can the Wildcats find some offense that they have not been able to find without Wilson under center?  A loss here will put the K-Cats under .500, but with Vanderbilt and UT-Martin following this game, the blue and white can still get to 6-6.

 

8:00 PM EST

 

 

Iowa State (5-3) at Oklahoma (7-1)–Fox

The last time Iowa State came to Norman, the Cyclones pulled off a major upset.  If they want to make the Big 12 Championship Game, they will have to do it again.  Of course, Oklahoma is coming off a bye week following their upset loss to Kansas State, so the Sooners are likely to play their best game of the season.

The question is, can Oklahoma’s defense stop Iowa State’s offense, and can the Sooners score at least 38 points in this game?

There’s another little issue in this game.  Oklahoma has a date at Baylor next week.  Even coming off a loss and a bye week, some of the Sooners may have a hard time thinking about Iowa State with the undefeated Bears coming up next week.  This should be an exciting game, especially under the lights at Owen Field.

 

 

10:15 PM EST

 

 

Wyoming (6-2) at Boise St. (7-1)–ESPN

Boise State has been a bit off in October and November.  The Broncos are not likely to earn the Group of 5 bid to a NY6 bowl, and they are now playing for their lives in the Mountain Division of the Mountain West.

Wyoming is a no-nonsense hard-hitting team that can wear teams down in the second half.  The Cowboys have enough talent to go to the Field of Blue and move into first place in the division.  If you are a night owl and stay up late on Saturday night watching games from the Rockies and West Coast, this is definitely one you should plan to watch.  Wyoming is coming into this game looking like they are sitting on their best production in the next few weeks.  We have this sneaky suspicion that the Cowboys will be in the lead in the fourth quarter in this game.

 

 

10:30 PM EST

 

 

Nevada (5-4) at San Diego St. (7-1)–ESPN2

San Diego State is in first place in the West Division of the Mountain West, but the Aztecs must play Nevada, Fresno State, and Hawaii in successive weeks, so even though Nevada is just 2-3 in conference play, the Wolf Pack are still alive in the division race.  This should be a relatively close game, and it could be decided on a late turnover or big play.  If you can stay up until 1:45 on the East Coast, you may be rewarded with some excitement to end your college football fix.

October 27, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: October 28, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:25 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Thursday

October 31

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Appalachian St.

Georgia Southern

16.9

16.3

17.3

Baylor

West Virginia

14.9

15.7

15.4

 

 

Friday

November 1

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Connecticut

Navy

-20.7

-19.8

-22.6

 

 

Saturday

November 2

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Wake Forest

North Carolina St.

6.2

5.9

6.4

Massachusetts

Liberty

-24.7

-23.9

-26.1

Florida Int’l.

Old Dominion

17.4

16.9

17.3

Coastal Carolina

Troy

-2.6

-2.1

-2.3

Georgia Tech

Pittsburgh

-7.6

-9.1

-7.4

Purdue

Nebraska

3.5

2.6

3.7

Central Florida

Houston

19.9

18.3

18.7

Maryland

Michigan

-17.1

-16.4

-18.7

Indiana

Northwestern

7.1

7.1

8.0

Bowling Green

Akron

5.9

5.7

7.0

Illinois

Rutgers

19.3

20.6

19.8

East Carolina

Cincinnati

-24.6

-21.8

-25.2

Syracuse

Boston College

6.6

6.3

5.7

Eastern Michigan

Buffalo

-0.6

-1.1

-1.5

North Carolina

Virginia

1.8

1.6

2.8

Utah St.

BYU

4.4

3.6

5.2

Notre Dame

Virginia Tech

19.2

17.4

18.5

USC

Oregon

-5.7

-5.2

-6.6

UCLA

Colorado

7.9

7.8

7.6

Kansas

Kansas St.

-12.0

-10.9

-11.7

Louisiana

Texas St.

22.1

21.5

22.6

South Carolina

Vanderbilt

17.4

16.9

18.1

Central Michigan

Northern Illinois

-7.2

-5.5

-6.5

Rice

Marshall

-8.4

-6.7

-10.0

Colorado St.

UNLV

4.3

6.5

5.1

Memphis

SMU

2.0

2.1

1.3

Texas A&M

UTSA

44.8

40.6

43.9

Air Force

Army

13.5

14.9

15.5

Arizona

Oregon St.

4.3

3.1

4.6

Tennessee

UAB

22.4

20.0

20.2

Auburn

Ole Miss

21.3

20.4

21.5

Florida (n)

Georgia

-3.5

-4.5

-3.8

Oklahoma St.

TCU

5.7

3.5

4.7

North Texas

UTEP

24.4

19.5

23.9

Tulane

Tulsa

10.9

10.8

10.1

Arkansas

Mississippi St.

-11.2

-7.3

-15.8

Charlotte

Middle Tennessee

-5.2

-4.0

-5.2

Western Kentucky

Florida Atlantic

-1.5

-0.3

-0.8

UL-Monroe

Arkansas St.

-2.6

-2.1

-2.4

Florida St.

Miami (Fla.)

2.1

2.9

1.5

Nevada

New Mexico

8.7

7.4

8.8

Washington

Utah

-6.3

-5.7

-6.2

San Jose St.

Boise St.

-16.1

-13.8

-16.7

Hawaii

Fresno St.

5.4

6.0

4.3

 

 

FBS vs.

FCS

Clemson

Wofford

48

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Ohio St.

138.7

137.8

139.8

138.8

2

Clemson

135.0

132.7

136.0

134.6

3

Alabama

135.3

132.2

136.0

134.5

4

L S U

129.1

126.8

129.0

128.3

5

Georgia

126.5

124.6

126.4

125.8

6

Penn St.

124.6

123.8

124.9

124.5

7

Utah

123.7

122.6

124.5

123.6

8

Auburn

123.7

122.0

123.7

123.1

9

Oklahoma

123.2

122.4

122.9

122.8

10

Florida

123.0

120.1

122.6

121.9

11

Michigan

121.5

119.9

121.8

121.1

12

Wisconsin

120.1

119.7

120.0

119.9

13

Oregon

118.4

118.4

119.6

118.8

14

Iowa

118.8

117.0

118.7

118.1

15

Minnesota

117.8

117.6

117.5

117.6

16

Notre Dame

117.6

115.8

117.3

116.9

17

Texas A&M

117.4

115.6

116.4

116.5

18

Iowa St.

114.5

115.1

114.7

114.8

19

Washington

114.3

114.0

115.3

114.5

20

Baylor

114.3

114.5

113.9

114.2

21

Central Florida

113.7

113.0

114.5

113.7

22

Washington St.

112.7

111.9

113.2

112.6

23

Michigan St.

112.4

111.5

111.9

111.9

24

South Carolina

111.7

110.0

111.1

110.9

25

Missouri

111.3

108.9

110.8

110.3

26

Kansas St.

110.4

110.3

110.2

110.3

27

Oklahoma St.

110.0

110.5

109.5

110.0

28

U S C

109.6

110.2

110.0

110.0

29

Texas

109.6

109.9

109.6

109.7

30

Mississippi St.

109.1

105.5

113.1

109.2

31

Tennessee

109.5

109.1

108.3

109.0

32

Cincinnati

108.6

107.4

109.2

108.4

33

T C U

107.3

110.0

107.8

108.4

34

Indiana

108.8

107.7

108.4

108.3

35

Appalachian St.

108.7

107.8

108.4

108.3

36

Kentucky

108.4

107.0

107.3

107.6

37

Virginia

107.2

107.2

107.1

107.2

38

SMU

106.7

106.5

107.9

107.0

39

Arizona St.

106.9

106.2

107.4

106.9

40

Boise St.

106.4

106.1

106.7

106.4

41

North Carolina

105.9

105.8

106.9

106.2

42

Memphis

105.7

105.6

106.2

105.8

43

Florida St.

105.6

105.7

105.8

105.7

44

Miami (Fla.)

105.5

104.9

106.4

105.6

45

Pittsburgh

105.6

105.3

105.7

105.5

46

Duke

105.4

104.8

105.3

105.2

47

Air Force

104.3

105.7

105.4

105.1

48

Ole Miss

105.5

104.5

105.2

105.1

49

Northwestern

104.6

103.6

103.4

103.9

50

Texas Tech

104.1

104.3

103.2

103.9

51

Wake Forest

103.8

103.2

104.1

103.7

52

Stanford

103.7

103.0

103.4

103.4

53

Purdue

103.6

103.3

102.9

103.3

54

Nebraska

103.1

103.7

102.3

103.0

55

Syracuse

103.4

102.7

102.8

103.0

56

California

102.5

102.1

103.0

102.5

57

Utah St.

102.5

101.7

103.3

102.5

58

West Virginia

102.4

101.8

101.5

101.9

59

Virginia Tech

101.3

101.4

101.7

101.5

60

Illinois

101.2

102.1

100.6

101.3

61

Louisiana

101.1

101.2

101.0

101.1

62

U C L A

101.0

100.8

100.6

100.8

63

Maryland

101.4

100.5

100.0

100.6

64

Tulane

99.7

100.5

100.1

100.1

65

Boston College

99.8

99.4

100.1

99.8

66

Wyoming

98.7

100.9

99.3

99.6

67

BYU

99.6

99.6

99.6

99.6

68

North Carolina St.

99.6

99.3

99.7

99.5

69

Louisville

99.3

99.1

99.2

99.2

70

Arizona

98.9

98.7

98.6

98.7

71

Western Michigan

98.6

97.7

98.5

98.3

72

San Diego St.

97.6

99.3

97.4

98.1

73

Temple

98.0

97.2

98.8

98.0

74

Oregon St.

97.6

98.6

97.1

97.8

75

Houston

96.8

97.7

98.8

97.7

76

Kansas

96.9

97.9

97.0

97.3

77

Navy

95.9

98.4

96.8

97.1

78

Vanderbilt

97.3

96.0

96.0

96.4

79

Colorado

96.2

96.0

96.0

96.0

80

Hawaii

95.8

97.3

95.0

96.0

81

Fresno St.

94.9

95.8

95.2

95.3

82

Arkansas

94.9

95.2

94.2

94.8

83

Florida Atlantic

94.5

94.2

95.5

94.7

84

Georgia Tech

94.9

93.2

95.3

94.5

85

Georgia Southern

94.8

94.5

94.0

94.5

86

Ohio

94.2

93.3

94.7

94.1

87

Northern Illinois

94.3

93.4

94.5

94.1

88

Southern Miss.

94.4

93.1

94.6

94.0

89

Louisiana Tech

93.8

94.2

94.1

94.0

90

Army

93.8

93.8

92.8

93.5

91

Georgia St.

92.3

93.6

92.0

92.6

92

Tulsa

91.8

92.7

93.0

92.5

93

Troy

92.1

92.7

91.2

92.0

94

Middle Tennessee

91.9

91.1

92.2

91.7

95

South Florida

91.1

92.3

91.5

91.6

96

Western Kentucky

90.5

91.5

92.2

91.4

97

Buffalo

90.5

91.1

91.8

91.1

98

U A B

90.1

92.0

91.0

91.1

99

Arkansas St.

91.1

91.3

90.8

91.1

100

Marshall

90.6

90.0

91.4

90.7

101

North Texas

90.5

89.8

90.8

90.4

102

Ball St.

90.2

89.7

90.2

90.0

103

Miami (Ohio)

89.3

88.0

89.7

89.0

104

Toledo

88.2

88.5

88.9

88.5

105

Liberty

87.9

89.0

88.0

88.3

106

Florida Int’l.

88.3

88.1

88.3

88.2

107

San Jose St.

87.3

89.3

87.1

87.9

108

Eastern Michigan

87.3

87.5

87.8

87.6

109

Kent St.

87.4

87.2

87.7

87.4

110

Colorado St.

85.9

89.6

86.4

87.3

111

Coastal Carolina

87.0

88.1

86.4

87.2

112

Nevada

86.1

87.4

85.2

86.2

113

Louisiana-Monroe

86.0

86.7

85.8

86.2

114

Central Michigan

84.7

85.4

85.5

85.2

115

U N L V

84.6

86.1

84.3

85.0

116

Charlotte

84.3

84.6

84.5

84.5

117

Rutgers

84.9

84.6

83.9

84.5

118

Texas St.

82.0

82.7

81.4

82.0

119

East Carolina

81.0

82.6

81.0

81.5

120

New Mexico

79.9

82.5

78.8

80.4

121

Rice

79.7

80.8

78.9

79.8

122

New Mexico St.

76.2

78.3

76.2

76.9

123

Texas-San Antonio

74.7

77.0

74.5

75.4

124

South Alabama

74.3

76.8

73.5

74.9

125

Connecticut

73.2

76.6

72.3

74.0

126

Old Dominion

73.5

73.7

73.4

73.5

127

Bowling Green

72.7

72.4

72.6

72.6

128

U T E P

68.6

72.9

69.4

70.3

129

Akron

69.4

69.3

68.2

68.9

130

Massachusetts

60.7

62.6

59.4

60.9

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

113.7

113.0

114.5

113.7

3-1

6-2

Cincinnati

108.6

107.4

109.2

108.4

3-0

6-1

Temple

98.0

97.2

98.8

98.0

2-2

5-3

South Florida

91.1

92.3

91.5

91.6

2-2

4-4

East Carolina

81.0

82.6

81.0

81.5

0-4

3-5

Connecticut

73.2

76.6

72.3

74.0

0-4

2-6

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

SMU

106.7

106.5

107.9

107.0

4-0

8-0

Memphis

105.7

105.6

106.2

105.8

3-1

7-1

Tulane

99.7

100.5

100.1

100.1

2-2

5-3

Houston

96.8

97.7

98.8

97.7

1-3

3-5

Navy

95.9

98.4

96.8

97.1

4-1

6-1

Tulsa

91.8

92.7

93.0

92.5

0-4

2-6

AAC Averages

96.8

97.5

97.5

97.3

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

135.0

132.7

136.0

134.6

6-0

8-0

Florida St.

105.6

105.7

105.8

105.7

3-3

4-4

Wake Forest

103.8

103.2

104.1

103.7

2-1

6-1

Syracuse

103.4

102.7

102.8

103.0

0-4

3-5

Boston College

99.8

99.4

100.1

99.8

2-3

4-4

North Carolina St.

99.6

99.3

99.7

99.5

1-2

4-3

Louisville

99.3

99.1

99.2

99.2

3-2

5-3

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Virginia

107.2

107.2

107.1

107.2

3-2

5-3

North Carolina

105.9

105.8

106.9

106.2

3-2

4-4

Miami (Fla.)

105.5

104.9

106.4

105.6

2-3

4-4

Pittsburgh

105.6

105.3

105.7

105.5

2-2

5-3

Duke

105.4

104.8

105.3

105.2

2-3

4-4

Virginia Tech

101.3

101.4

101.7

101.5

3-2

5-2

Georgia Tech

94.9

93.2

95.3

94.5

1-3

2-5

ACC Averages

105.2

104.6

105.4

105.1

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

123.2

122.4

122.9

122.8

4-1

7-1

Iowa St.

114.5

115.1

114.7

114.8

3-2

5-3

Baylor

114.3

114.5

113.9

114.2

4-0

7-0

Kansas St.

110.4

110.3

110.2

110.3

2-2

5-2

Oklahoma St.

110.0

110.5

109.5

110.0

2-3

5-3

Texas

109.6

109.9

109.6

109.7

3-2

5-3

T C U

107.3

110.0

107.8

108.4

2-2

4-3

Texas Tech

104.1

104.3

103.2

103.9

1-4

3-5

West Virginia

102.4

101.8

101.5

101.9

1-3

3-4

Kansas

96.9

97.9

97.0

97.3

1-4

3-5

Big 12 Averages

109.3

109.7

109.0

109.3

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

138.7

137.8

139.8

138.8

5-0

8-0

Penn St.

124.6

123.8

124.9

124.5

5-0

8-0

Michigan

121.5

119.9

121.8

121.1

3-2

6-2

Michigan St.

112.4

111.5

111.9

111.9

2-3

4-4

Indiana

108.8

107.7

108.4

108.3

3-2

6-2

Maryland

101.4

100.5

100.0

100.6

1-4

3-5

Rutgers

84.9

84.6

83.9

84.5

0-5

2-6

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

120.1

119.7

120.0

119.9

3-2

6-2

Iowa

118.8

117.0

118.7

118.1

3-2

6-2

Minnesota

117.8

117.6

117.5

117.6

5-0

8-0

Northwestern

104.6

103.6

103.4

103.9

0-5

1-6

Purdue

103.6

103.3

102.9

103.3

1-4

2-6

Nebraska

103.1

103.7

102.3

103.0

2-3

4-4

Illinois

101.2

102.1

100.6

101.3

2-3

4-4

Big Ten Averages

111.5

110.9

111.1

111.2

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Florida Atlantic

94.5

94.2

95.5

94.7

3-1

5-3

Middle Tennessee

91.9

91.1

92.2

91.7

2-2

3-5

Western Kentucky

90.5

91.5

92.2

91.4

4-1

5-3

Marshall

90.6

90.0

91.4

90.7

3-1

5-3

Florida Int’l.

88.3

88.1

88.3

88.2

2-3

4-4

Charlotte

84.3

84.6

84.5

84.5

1-3

3-5

Old Dominion

73.5

73.7

73.4

73.5

0-4

1-7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Southern Miss.

94.4

93.1

94.6

94.0

3-1

5-3

Louisiana Tech

93.8

94.2

94.1

94.0

4-0

7-1

U A B

90.1

92.0

91.0

91.1

3-1

6-1

North Texas

90.5

89.8

90.8

90.4

2-2

3-5

Rice

79.7

80.8

78.9

79.8

0-4

0-8

Texas-San Antonio

74.7

77.0

74.5

75.4

2-2

3-4

U T E P

68.6

72.9

69.4

70.3

0-4

1-6

CUSA Averages

86.1

86.7

86.5

86.4

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

117.6

115.8

117.3

116.9

x

5-2

BYU

99.6

99.6

99.6

99.6

x

3-4

Army

93.8

93.8

92.8

93.5

x

3-5

Liberty

87.9

89.0

88.0

88.3

x

5-3

New Mexico St.

76.2

78.3

76.2

76.9

x

0-8

Massachusetts

60.7

62.6

59.4

60.9

x

1-7

Indep. Averages

89.3

89.8

88.9

89.3

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Ohio

94.2

93.3

94.7

94.1

3-1

4-4

Buffalo

90.5

91.1

91.8

91.1

2-2

4-4

Miami (Ohio)

89.3

88.0

89.7

89.0

3-1

4-4

Kent St.

87.4

87.2

87.7

87.4

2-2

3-5

Bowling Green

72.7

72.4

72.6

72.6

1-3

2-6

Akron

69.4

69.3

68.2

68.9

0-4

0-8

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

98.6

97.7

98.5

98.3

3-2

5-4

Northern Illinois

94.3

93.4

94.5

94.1

2-2

3-5

Ball St.

90.2

89.7

90.2

90.0

3-1

4-4

Toledo

88.2

88.5

88.9

88.5

2-2

5-3

Eastern Michigan

87.3

87.5

87.8

87.6

1-3

4-4

Central Michigan

84.7

85.4

85.5

85.2

3-2

5-4

MAC Averages

87.2

87.0

87.5

87.2

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Boise St.

106.4

106.1

106.7

106.4

3-0

6-1

Air Force

104.3

105.7

105.4

105.1

4-1

6-2

Utah St.

102.5

101.7

103.3

102.5

3-1

4-3

Wyoming

98.7

100.9

99.3

99.6

3-1

6-2

Colorado St.

85.9

89.6

86.4

87.3

2-2

3-5

New Mexico

79.9

82.5

78.8

80.4

0-4

2-6

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

San Diego St.

97.6

99.3

97.4

98.1

4-1

7-1

Hawaii

95.8

97.3

95.0

96.0

2-2

5-3

Fresno St.

94.9

95.8

95.2

95.3

1-2

3-4

San Jose St.

87.3

89.3

87.1

87.9

1-3

4-4

Nevada

86.1

87.4

85.2

86.2

1-3

4-4

U N L V

84.6

86.1

84.3

85.0

1-4

2-6

MWC Averages

93.7

95.1

93.7

94.2

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

118.4

118.4

119.6

118.8

5-0

7-1

Washington

114.3

114.0

115.3

114.5

2-3

5-3

Washington St.

112.7

111.9

113.2

112.6

1-4

4-4

Stanford

103.7

103.0

103.4

103.4

3-3

4-4

California

102.5

102.1

103.0

102.5

1-4

4-4

Oregon St.

97.6

98.6

97.1

97.8

2-2

3-4

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

123.7

122.6

124.5

123.6

4-1

7-1

U S C

109.6

110.2

110.0

110.0

4-1

5-3

Arizona St.

106.9

106.2

107.4

106.9

2-3

5-3

U C L A

101.0

100.8

100.6

100.8

3-2

3-5

Arizona

98.9

98.7

98.6

98.7

2-3

4-4

Colorado

96.2

96.0

96.0

96.0

1-4

3-5

Pac-12 Averages

107.1

106.9

107.4

107.1

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

126.5

124.6

126.4

125.8

3-1

6-1

Florida

123.0

120.1

122.6

121.9

5-1

7-1

South Carolina

111.7

110.0

111.1

110.9

2-4

3-5

Missouri

111.3

108.9

110.8

110.3

2-2

5-3

Tennessee

109.5

109.1

108.3

109.0

2-3

3-5

Kentucky

108.4

107.0

107.3

107.6

2-4

4-4

Vanderbilt

97.3

96.0

96.0

96.4

1-3

2-5

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Alabama

135.3

132.2

136.0

134.5

5-0

8-0

L S U

129.1

126.8

129.0

128.3

4-0

8-0

Auburn

123.7

122.0

123.7

123.1

3-2

6-2

Texas A&M

117.4

115.6

116.4

116.5

3-2

5-3

Mississippi St.

109.1

105.5

113.1

109.2

1-4

3-5

Ole Miss

105.5

104.5

105.2

105.1

2-3

3-5

Arkansas

94.9

95.2

94.2

94.8

0-5

2-6

SEC Averages

114.5

112.7

114.3

113.8

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

108.7

107.8

108.4

108.3

4-0

7-0

Georgia Southern

94.8

94.5

94.0

94.5

2-1

4-3

Georgia St.

92.3

93.6

92.0

92.6

3-1

6-2

Troy

92.1

92.7

91.2

92.0

1-2

3-4

Coastal Carolina

87.0

88.1

86.4

87.2

0-3

3-4

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

101.1

101.2

101.0

101.1

2-1

5-2

Arkansas St.

91.1

91.3

90.8

91.1

2-2

4-4

Louisiana-Monroe

86.0

86.7

85.8

86.2

2-1

3-4

Texas St.

82.0

82.7

81.4

82.0

1-2

2-5

South Alabama

74.3

76.8

73.5

74.9

0-4

1-7

SBC Averages

90.9

91.5

90.5

91.0

 

Conference Power Ratings

#

League

Average

1

Southeastern

113.8

2

Big Ten

111.2

3

Big 12

109.3

4

Pac-12

107.1

5

Atlantic Coast

105.1

6

American

97.3

7

Mountain West

94.2

8

Sun Belt

91.0

9

Independents

89.3

10

Mid-American

87.2

11

Conference USA

86.4

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1

SMU

2

Appalachian St.

3

Cincinnati

4

Navy

5

Boise St.

 

This Week’s Look At Some Key Contenders Not Getting Enough Publicity

What a difference a strange weekend of football makes!  With Kansas State beating Oklahoma, and LSU taking care of business against Auburn, the playoff picture began to swing toward the SEC getting two teams into the Playoffs.  At the moment, the Big Ten still has three undefeated teams, so there is a chance that the Big Ten could get two teams into the Playoffs if the regular season ends with a 13-0 team and a 12-1 or 11-1 team.

Minnesota will get its chance to prove whether they truly are Golden Gophers or just pests digging a hole in the ground.  If  Minny can beat Penn State, and then the Gophers follow it up with wins at Iowa and at home against Wisconsin, then the least Minnesota could get for a postseason reward would be their first trip to the Rose Bowl since January of 1962.

Having closely watched and diagnosed every scrimmage play in Minnesota’s last two games, this team looks to be legitimate.  The Gophers have an excellent inside-outside running attack.  Their running backs hit the perimeter quickly with speed.  The Gophers can get yards between the tackles as well.  Of all the teams we have seen so far this year, Minnesota’s rushing attack is the most consistent among teams that do not use the option.

The Gopher passing attack is one of the best in the nation with Tanner Morgan just a fraction behind Ohio State’s Justin Fields in league passer efficiency.

The Gophers aren’t all offense.  The Minnesota defense is surrendering just 284 yards (13th best in the nation) and 20 points per game. But, the defense is on a roll.  After giving up 119 points in their first four games, UM has given up just 41 in the last four.

Penn State and Minnesota both have the week off to prepare for this big game.  Unfortunately, this is the same day as the Alabama-LSU game, so it will be second banana to the first of many “game of the years.”

 

Baylor is still undefeated, the final team from the Big 12 that can say that now that Oklahoma has fallen.  In order for Baylor to get to the playoffs, the Bears must run the table, and that means almost assuredly having to beat Oklahoma twice.  A split puts Baylor in either the Sugar Bowl or Cotton Bowl, if that it their only loss.

 

Out in the Pac-12, Utah and Oregon face key games this week.  Utah plays at Washington, while Oregon  plays at USC.  If both division leaders win, then they must be put in contention for a playoff spot if the Conference Championship Game winner is 12-1, while the runner-up is 11-2.

 

In the Group of 5 this week, SMU plays at Memphis, and the winner will be a co-leader with Cincinnati for the Cotton Bowl bid.  Appalachian State is still undefeated, but the Mountaineers will have to win out (including winning at South Carolina), while SMU will have to lose a game, before Appy has a chance to get to the Cotton Bowl. 

 

This Week’s Playoffs and Bowl Projections

American Athletic

SMU held on to a narrow road win against Houston, so the Mustangs are the current top Group of 5 team in line to play at home in the Cotton Bowl.  Memphis is still alive only by a fluke missed chip-shot field goal by Tulsa.  Cincinnati and Navy still have shots at that Cotton Bowl bid, while Central Florida is still around with two losses should a bunch of teams lose in November.

East Carolina, Houston, and South Florida still have minute chances to get bowl eligible, but our ratings are calling for all three to miss out.  Tulane needs one more win to become bowl eligible, and they must beat Tulsa this weekend, or the Green Wave could miss out.  Their final three games are tough.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 7

 

Atlantic Coast

Clemson should be able to coast home with a 13-0 record and Playoff bid.  The Tigers should win their final four regular season games by margins of 20 or more every week.  The Coastal Division will probably send a 5-3 team to the ACC Championship Game, and other than North Carolina looking for revenge, we don’t see any of the other contenders making the title game close.

Notre Dame caucuses with the ACC for bowl bids, and with no viable ACC team looking formidable, the Irish will most likely take the next bowl in the ACC pecking order.  This week, we are going with a Big Ten team in the Orange Bowl, so for now it looks like the Citrus Bowl for the number two team in this group.

Including Notre Dame, there is a good chance that the ACC will have 12 bowl eligible teams, meaning there will be room for two additional at-large bowl bids.  The ACC has secondary agreements with the Birmingham and Gasparilla Bowls.  The Birmingham Bowl will most definitely need an at-large team, so ACC #11 will get that bid.  The Gasparilla Bowl most likely will not need an at-large team, but that ACC #12 will still receive an at-large bid.  With the SEC obviously falling well short this year, that #12 ACC team could end up in Memphis in the Liberty Bowl.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 12 (includes Notre Dame)

 

Big 12

With Oklahoma losing, for now, we are keeping the Big 12 out of the Playoffs.  There is still a 20% chance that either Baylor or Oklahoma run the table to stay in contention at the end.  One team will have to sweep the other to pull it off.

TCU’s upset of Texas (wasn’t really an upset) puts the Horned Frogs back into position to become bowl eligible, while Texas Tech’s loss to Kansas knocks the Red Raiders out of contention for now.  We’re not ready to put Les Miles and his Jayhawks into contention, but if KU knocks off Kansas State this weekend, then we might be forced to give them some consideration.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 7

 

Big Ten

Ohio State has an excellent chance to make the Playoffs as the top seed.  On the other hand, they might have to get there by beating an undefeated Penn State or Minnesota team, and they have to play at Michigan.  Could history from repeat itself from 50 years ago?  In 1969, the best ever Ohio State team coming off a really embarrassing blowout of Michigan the year before, went to Ann Arbor to face a two-loss Michigan team.  Michigan’s defense did the near-impossible, stopping the greatest Buckeye offense in school history.  We can hardly wait.

Indiana’s win at Nebraska virtually guarantees that the Hoosiers will become bowl eligible.  Illinois’s win over Purdue puts Lovie Smith’s Illini in strong contention for a bowl bid, while Purdue played itself out of contention.

Michigan State is struggling, but the Spartans should win six or seven games to become bowl eligible, while Nebraska is hoping the return of Adrian Martinez and games with Purdue and Maryland will get the Cornhuskers to 6-6.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 10

 

Conference USA

This is a down year for CUSA, as no team is in contention for the Group of 5 NY6 Bowl bid.  In the East, Marshall is now in control of their destiny thanks to a last-play 53-yard field goal against Western Kentucky.  Florida Atlantic and WKU are the other teams still in contention, but all three of these teams will get bowl bids.

In the West, it is looking like there could be a three-way tie between Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, and UAB.  North Texas is suffering a disappointing year, and the Mean Green have been removed from bowl contention by our ratings.

We expect CUSA to have on more bowl eligible team than it has bowl contracts, and that sixth team might be headed to Shreveport, Louisiana in late December.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 6

 

Independents

(not including Notre Dame, which counts with the ACC)

This has turned into a disappointing season for Army, and we now have the Black Knights finishing under .500.  Brigham Young has an automatic bowl bid to Hawaii if the Cougars go 6-6 or better.  6-6 is the most likely record for BYU.

Liberty has not been to a bowl in its short history in FBS football, but the Flames have a secondary agreement with the Cure Bowl should the Cure Bowl need an at-large team.  This week, for the first time, we have the Cure Bowl needing an at-large team, so Hugh Freeze might be staying quite warm in Florida in December.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 2

 

Mid-American

This is a down year in the MAC, but the parity is going to lead to many more bowl eligible teams than the MAC has bowls to place them.  The MAC has five guaranteed bowl bids plus secondary agreements with two others.  One of those other secondary agreements is the Quick Lane Bowl which will not need an at-large team.  The Frisco Bowl always needs an at-large team, since there is only one tie-in, so the MAC can expect a second consecutive bowl bid there.  This year, the MAC is likely to see at least one additional team go to a bowl that has no MACtion secondary agreement.  Because our ratings this week forecast 79 bowl eligible teams, the odd team out is likely to be a 6-6 MAC team.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 8 (But only 7 will receive bids)

 

Mountain West

The Mountain West will most likely lose its secondary chance at the Hawaii and Cheez-it Bowls, which means that the league will only have five guaranteed bowl bids.  This league will most likely have seven bowl eligible teams, so two members will be headed East and South in December.

Boise State still remains in contention for the Group of 5 NY6 bid to the Cotton Bowl, but the Broncos still have three tough tests remaining.  They must beat Utah State and Wyoming and then the West Division representative in the MWC Championship Game.  For now, we have Boise winning the championship but not getting the Cotton Bowl bid.

Air Force has a chance to finish 10-2, and the Falcons could be moved out of the MWC’s bowl tie-ins in order to fly east to a more prestigious bowl, maybe replacing the SEC in a Southern bowl game.  Air Force can fill up most stadiums with Cadets, and they don’t have problems with airline reservations.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 7

 

Pac-12

Oregon and Utah still have minor chances to sneak into the Playoffs, but until teams like Clemson, Ohio State, Alabama, LSU, and Penn State start losing games, we will put the league champion in Pasadena.

This week, we remove California from bowl contention and put rival Stanford back in.  We also remove Arizona for now, so there will not be extra bowl eligible teams if our scenario plays itself out.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 7

 

Southeastern

It may be the strongest league in college football, but the SEC is going to be the league that causes multiple bowls to look elsewhere for at-large teams.  The Independence and Birmingham Bowls must already be looking at potential at-large teams.  The Belk, Liberty, and Music City Bowls might also wish to start looking around for potential at-large teams.

If both Alabama and LSU make the playoffs, and then Florida and Georgia (or Auburn) then receive Sugar and Orange Bowl bids, four teams are already removed before the meat of the bowls look for what’s left.

Because Missouri is ineligible for a bowl, and Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, and South Carolina look to be out of bowl contention, an Ole Miss Egg Bowl win over Mississippi State will likely leave the SEC with just 8 Bowl Eligible teams.  Only four teams will remain for the nine SEC spots needed to fulfill the SEC’s bowl contracts.

The Citrus, Outback, Gator, and Texas Bowls are the bowls that the SEC will need to fill.  That leaves the Belk, Music City, Liberty, Birmingham, and Independence Bowls without SEC teams.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 8

 

Sun Belt

Congratulations go out to Georgia State for joining Appy State as teams already eligible for bowls this year.  Appy State is hoping for a miracle.  If the Mountaineers win at South Carolina and finish the regular season 13-0, there is a chance they  could get the Cotton Bowl bid.  For now, we see them coming up one game short.

Louisiana is one win away from becoming bowl eligible, while Arkansas State and Georgia Southern have legitimate paths to bowl eligibility, and UL-Monroe has a path, just not as legitimate as the other two.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 5

 

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Western Michigan

Marshall

Frisco

AAC

At-large

SMU

[Miami (O)]

Cure

AAC

SBC

[Liberty]

Arkansas St.

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

Louisiana Tech

San Diego St.

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Memphis

Eastern Michigan

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Central Michigan

Louisiana

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

Boise St.

Washington St.

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

Southern Miss.

Appalachian St.

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Central Florida

Florida Atlantic

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC

BYU

Navy

Independence

ACC

SEC

Florida St.

[Western Kentucky]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

North Carolina St.

Illiois

Military

ACC

AAC

Pittsburgh

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

North Carolina

Michigan St.

Texas

Big 12

SEC

Texas

Texas A&M

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

USC

Michigan

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

TCU

Stanford

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Virginia Tech

Oklahoma St.

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Cincinnati

Baylor

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

UAB

[Utah St.]

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington

Iowa

Music City

SEC

ACC

[Air Force]

Louisville

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Georgia

Penn St.

Belk

ACC

SEC

Wake Forest

[Buffalo]

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

Virginia

Arizona St.

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

Iowa St.

[Duke]

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Georgia Southern

San Jose St.

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Kansas St.

Oregon

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Auburn

Notre Dame

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Indiana

Tennessee

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Minnesota

Utah

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Oklahoma

Florida

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Tulane

[Miami (Fla.)]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Kentucky

Wisconsin

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Toledo

Wyoming

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

Nebraska

Hawaii

Dollar General

MAC

SBC

Ohio U

Georgia St.

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

Ohio St.

LSU

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Alabama

Clemson

 

 

Championship

Fiesta

Peach

Ohio St.

Alabama

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

October 24, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For October 24-28, 2019

It couldn’t last.  Our winning streak ended soon after it began, and both the PiRate Picks and Experimental Davey19 picks fell to the losing side last week.  We’re back at it again hoping that maybe if you see a game you have thought about wagering real money on the outcome, you will see that we agree with you, and you will quickly forget playing that game.

Remember, the PiRates do not wager real money on football games, and we encourage you not to use our picks as handicapping aids if you happen to play for real.  These picks are free and are priced exactly where they need to be.

PiRate Picks

This week, we add a new twist that hasn’t been shown here in several years.  We are going to make a few 6-point teaser picks (2-game parlays @ 10-11 odds)

College 6-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Connecticut

Massachusetts

4

UConn

Memphis

Tulsa

4.5

Memphis

 

College 6-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Texas A&M

Mississippi St.

4.5

Texas A&M

Iowa

Northwestern

4

Iowa

 

College 6-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Miami (Fla.)

Pittsburgh

0.5

Pittsburgh

Arkansas St.

Texas St.

5.5

Arkansas St.

 

College 10-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

SMU

Houston

4

SMU

Central Michigan

Buffalo

7.5

Buffalo

Purdue

Illinois

20

Illinois

 

College 10-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Liberty

Rutgers

17

Rutgers

Rice

Southern Miss.

0.5

Southern Miss

Wyoming

Nevada

4

Wyoming

 

College 10-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Fresno St.

Colorado St.

4.5

Fresno St

Georgia Southern

N. Mexico St.

4.5

Ga. Southern

Iowa St.

Oklahoma St.

0.5

Iowa St.

 

College 10-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Ohio

Ball St.

7.5

Ball St.

Oklahoma

Kansas St.

13.5

Oklahoma

Minnesota

Maryland

6.5

Minnesota

 

College 10-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Texas

TCU

11.5

TCU

Ohio St.

Wisconsin

4.5

Ohio St.

LSU

Auburn

0.5

LSU

 

College 13-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Troy

Georgia St.

12

Georgia St.

Penn St.

Michigan St.

19.5

Michigan St.

Middle Tennessee

Florida Int’l.

10.5

Fla. Intl

South Carolina

Tennessee

17.5

Tennessee

 

NFL 10-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Minnesota

Washington

6.5

Minnesota

N.Y. Giants

Detroit

3

Detroit

Tampa Bay

Tennessee

7.5

Tennessee

 

NFL 10-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

LA Chargers

Chicago

6

Chicago

N.Y. Jets

Jacksonville

4

Jacksonville

Philadelphia

Buffalo

8.5

Buffalo

 

NFL 10-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

LA Rams

Cincinnati

3

LA Rams

New Orleans

Arizona

0.5

New Orleans

Oakland

Houston

3

Houston

 

NFL 10-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Denver

Indianapolis

4.5

Indianapolis

New England

Cleveland

3

New England

Miami

Pittsburgh

4.5

Pittsburgh

 

Davey19 Selections

College Picks Against The Spread

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Connecticut

Massachusetts

10

UMass

Purdue

Illinois

10

Illinois

Central Florida

Temple

11

Temple

Buffalo

Central Michigan

2.5

Buffalo

Liberty

Rutgers

7.5

Rutgers

Marshall

Western Kentucky

5

Western Kentucky

Iowa St.

Oklahoma St.

10.5

Oklahoma St.

Ball St.

Ohio

2.5

Ball St.

North Texas

Charlotte

4.5

Charlotte

 

Note: For those of you that play for real, please be aware that in both college and pro football this weekend, Miami is playing Pittsburgh at Heinz Stadium.  Don’t confuse the games on the card.

The Pitt Panthers and Miami of Florida Hurricanes face off Saturday at Noon Eastern Daylight Time.  The Steelers host the Dolphins on Monday Night at 8:20 PM Eastern Daylight Time.

 

And, as a reminder, next Sunday’s NFL games will kick off in Standard Time.  Daylight Savings Time goes to bed Sunday morning at 2 AM, November 3.  It never ceases to amaze us as to how many 9 to 5 workers fail to notice that one of their car’s headlights, taillights, brake lights, or signal lights is not working, until after the clocks are set back in the Fall, and they drive home from work in the dark. 

Please check all your lights before you turn your clock back an hour.  Darkness at 4:30 PM always leads to increased traffic accidents in large cities, so play it safe and prepare by becoming a better defensive driver.  The life you save, may be mine.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

October 21, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 8: October 24-28, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Margins

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Minnesota

Washington

19.2

16.5

17.7

Detroit

N.Y. Giants

8.5

6.8

7.2

Tennessee

Tampa Bay

4.8

2.7

1.9

Chicago

LA Chargers

8.3

4.6

5.8

Atlanta

Seattle

-4.7

-4.1

-4.8

Jacksonville

N.Y. Jets

9.6

9.0

10.7

Buffalo

Philadelphia

-2.0

1.2

1.1

LA Rams

Cincinnati

13.6

12.3

12.1

New Orleans

Arizona

16.8

13.3

13.1

Houston

Oakland

10.3

10.7

9.7

San Francisco

Carolina

5.0

6.1

5.7

Indianapolis

Denver

4.0

4.7

4.6

New England

Cleveland

14.2

15.1

14.6

Kansas City

Green Bay

-0.7

-0.3

-1.3

Pittsburgh

Miami

15.1

15.2

15.9

 

Totals

Home

Visitor

Total

Minnesota

Washington

41

Detroit

N.Y. Giants

48.5

Tennessee

Tampa Bay

44

Chicago

LA Chargers

41.5

Atlanta

Seattle

52

Jacksonville

N.Y. Jets

39.5

Buffalo

Philadelphia

43

LA Rams

Cincinnati

52

New Orleans

Arizona

48

Houston

Oakland

48

San Francisco

Carolina

47.5

Indianapolis

Denver

41

New England

Cleveland

44.5

Kansas City

Green Bay

56.5

Pittsburgh

Miami

48

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New England

111.0

112.2

111.8

111.7

21

7-0

Buffalo

99.4

100.6

100.1

100.0

17.5

5-1

N. Y. Jets

92.5

93.5

92.2

92.7

20.5

1-5

Miami

86.8

87.0

86.6

86.8

26.5

0-6

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Baltimore

101.7

101.3

102.3

101.8

23

5-2

Cleveland

99.8

100.1

100.2

100.0

23.5

2-4

Pittsburgh

98.8

99.3

99.6

99.2

21.5

2-4

Cincinnati

93.6

93.4

93.8

93.6

24

0-7

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Houston

103.9

104.2

103.8

104.0

23.5

4-3

Indianapolis

100.1

101.0

100.6

100.6

22.5

4-2

Jacksonville

99.1

99.5

99.9

99.5

19

3-4

Tennessee

98.1

98.4

98.0

98.2

15.5

3-4

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Kansas City

100.7

101.2

100.6

100.8

30.5

5-2

LA Chargers

99.5

99.7

98.8

99.3

22

2-5

Denver

99.2

99.3

99.0

99.2

18.5

2-5

Oakland

96.6

96.6

97.1

96.8

24.5

3-3

 

 

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Dallas

104.1

104.7

104.1

104.3

20.5

4-3

Philadelphia

103.9

101.9

101.5

102.4

25.5

3-4

N.Y. Giants

94.1

94.5

95.0

94.5

24.5

2-5

Washington

91.2

92.2

91.6

91.7

18.5

1-6

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Minnesota

107.4

105.7

106.2

106.5

22.5

5-2

Green Bay

104.5

104.5

104.9

104.6

26

6-1

Chicago

104.8

101.3

101.6

102.6

19.5

3-3

Detroit

99.5

98.4

99.2

99.1

24

2-3-1

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New Orleans

108.2

105.2

105.6

106.3

24.5

6-1

Carolina

102.3

102.5

103.3

102.7

24.5

4-2

Tampa Bay

95.9

98.2

98.6

97.6

28.5

2-4

Atlanta

94.8

95.1

94.4

94.7

26.5

1-6

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

LA Rams

107.2

105.7

105.9

106.3

28

4-3

San Francisco

104.3

105.6

106.0

105.3

23

6-0

Seattle

102.5

102.2

102.2

102.3

25.5

6-1

Arizona

94.5

94.9

95.5

95.0

23.5

3-3-1

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

 

AFC Seeding

1

New England

2

Indianapolis

3

Kansas City

4

Baltimore

5

Buffalo

6

Houston

NFC Seeding

1

Green Bay

2

New Orleans

3

San Francisco

4

Dallas

5

Minnesota

6

LA Rams

Wildcard Round

Kansas City over Houston

Buffalo over Baltimore

LA Rams over San Francisco

Minnesota over Dallas

Divisional Round

New England over Buffalo

Kansas City over Indianapolis

Green Bay over LA Rams

New Orleans over Minnesota

Conference Championship

New England over Kansas City

Green Bay over New Orleans

Super Bowl 54

New England over Green Bay

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

October 20, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: October 21, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:43 am

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

 

Thursday

October 24

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Houston

SMU

-8.1

-7.1

-7.5

Friday

October 25

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Colorado

USC

-11.1

-12.2

-12.3

Saturday

October 26

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Massachusetts

Connecticut

-7.6

-9.3

-7.6

Purdue

Illinois

11.4

10.5

11.8

Army

San Jose St.

13.6

11.4

13.3

Georgia St.

Troy

-2.2

-1.3

-1.6

Clemson

Boston College

33.5

30.9

33.7

Tulsa

Memphis

-12.8

-12.0

-12.5

Toledo

Eastern Michigan

3.5

3.7

3.8

Texas A&M

Mississippi St.

9.6

11.6

3.9

Temple

Central Florida

-7.0

-7.0

-6.7

Western Michigan

Bowling Green

25.8

24.9

25.5

Nebraska

Indiana

-2.1

0.0

-2.1

Buffalo

Central Michigan

5.9

5.6

6.0

Northwestern

Iowa

-9.7

-8.8

-10.7

East Carolina

South Florida

-2.0

-1.2

-2.0

Florida St.

Syracuse

3.0

3.9

3.4

Rutgers

Liberty

-2.4

-4.2

-3.9

Rice

Southern Miss.

-11.8

-8.8

-12.5

Utah

California

20.2

19.4

20.2

Wyoming

Nevada

12.9

13.5

13.7

Air Force

Utah St.

0.0

2.5

-0.1

New Mexico

Hawaii

-12.2

-10.6

-12.4

Marshall

Western Kentucky

2.8

1.2

2.1

Stanford

Arizona

7.6

6.7

7.1

Oregon

Washington St.

10.1

11.2

11.2

Fresno St.

Colorado St.

19.2

16.3

19.4

Kentucky

Missouri

-5.0

-4.0

-6.2

North Carolina

Duke

1.7

2.2

3.0

Michigan St.

Penn St.

-5.4

-5.3

-5.8

Kent St.

Miami (O)

2.2

3.7

2.5

South Alabama

Appalachian St.

-32.1

-28.5

-32.7

Georgia Southern

New Mexico St.

18.2

15.2

16.8

Iowa St.

Oklahoma St.

10.3

10.6

11.2

Middle Tennessee

Florida Int’l.

0.2

-0.8

0.1

Old Dominion

Florida Atlantic

-13.0

-12.1

-13.9

Ball St.

Ohio U

1.1

1.7

0.8

Alabama

Arkansas

43.1

39.2

44.5

Tennessee

South Carolina

-3.3

-2.0

-4.7

Kansas St.

Oklahoma

-14.6

-14.0

-14.8

Minnesota

Maryland

12.7

13.2

13.3

Navy

Tulane

-1.3

0.6

-1.2

TCU

Texas

-4.5

-2.0

-4.4

Pittsburgh

Miami (Fla.)

4.8

5.4

4.4

Louisville

Virginia

-8.1

-8.7

-8.5

Northern Illinois

Akron

22.3

21.0

23.4

Kansas

Texas Tech

-7.7

-6.7

-6.8

Charlotte

North Texas

-5.1

-4.1

-5.6

Ohio St.

Wisconsin

18.7

18.0

19.8

Arkansas St.

Texas St.

8.8

8.0

8.7

LSU

Auburn

9.0

8.4

9.4

UTEP

Louisiana Tech

-23.1

-18.4

-22.6

Michigan

Notre Dame

1.5

1.4

1.6

UCLA

Arizona St.

-6.2

-5.7

-7.7

UNLV

San Diego St.

-11.6

-12.1

-12.1

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Ohio St.

137.4

136.4

138.4

137.4

2

Alabama

135.3

132.0

136.0

134.4

3

Clemson

132.6

130.0

133.4

132.0

4

L S U

129.4

127.1

129.5

128.7

5

Oklahoma

125.8

125.1

125.7

125.5

6

Georgia

126.2

124.3

126.1

125.5

7

Auburn

123.4

121.7

123.2

122.8

8

Penn St.

122.7

121.8

122.8

122.5

9

Wisconsin

121.7

121.4

121.7

121.6

10

Florida

122.7

119.8

122.3

121.6

11

Utah

121.6

120.4

122.2

121.4

12

Notre Dame

120.5

118.8

120.4

119.9

13

Oregon

119.1

119.2

120.5

119.6

14

Michigan

118.9

117.2

119.0

118.4

15

Iowa

117.7

115.8

117.5

117.0

16

Iowa St.

115.9

116.6

116.2

116.2

17

Texas A&M

116.7

115.0

115.3

115.7

18

Washington

114.0

113.7

115.0

114.2

19

Minnesota

114.2

113.9

113.7

113.9

20

Baylor

114.0

114.2

113.6

113.9

21

Michigan St.

114.3

113.5

114.0

113.9

22

Missouri

114.2

111.8

114.0

113.3

23

South Carolina

113.6

111.9

113.4

113.0

24

Texas

111.7

111.9

111.9

111.8

25

Washington St.

112.0

111.1

112.3

111.8

26

U S C

109.9

110.7

110.6

110.4

27

Central Florida

110.4

109.6

111.0

110.3

28

Mississippi St.

110.1

106.4

114.5

110.3

29

Virginia

108.8

109.0

108.9

108.9

30

Oklahoma St.

108.6

109.0

108.0

108.5

31

Arizona St.

108.4

107.7

109.2

108.5

32

Appalachian St.

108.8

107.8

108.6

108.4

33

Cincinnati

108.3

107.1

108.9

108.1

34

Kansas St.

108.3

108.1

107.9

108.1

35

Indiana

108.5

107.2

107.9

107.9

36

SMU

107.2

107.0

108.5

107.6

37

Memphis

106.8

106.8

107.5

107.0

38

Pittsburgh

106.6

106.4

106.9

106.6

39

Tennessee

107.3

106.9

105.7

106.6

40

Purdue

106.8

106.6

106.3

106.6

41

T C U

105.2

108.0

105.5

106.2

42

Boise St.

106.1

105.8

106.4

106.1

43

North Carolina

105.7

105.7

106.9

106.1

44

Texas Tech

105.8

106.0

105.0

105.6

45

Duke

105.6

104.9

105.3

105.3

46

Kentucky

106.2

104.8

104.8

105.3

47

Utah St.

104.9

104.0

105.9

104.9

48

Miami (Fla.)

104.8

104.1

105.5

104.8

49

Ole Miss

105.2

104.2

104.9

104.8

50

Northwestern

105.4

104.5

104.3

104.7

51

Florida St.

104.5

104.6

104.5

104.6

52

California

104.3

104.0

105.0

104.4

53

Syracuse

104.5

103.8

104.1

104.1

54

Maryland

104.5

103.7

103.3

103.8

55

Nebraska

103.4

104.2

102.8

103.5

56

Wake Forest

103.5

102.9

103.8

103.4

57

Stanford

103.6

102.7

103.1

103.1

58

Air Force

101.9

103.4

102.8

102.7

59

Boston College

102.2

102.1

102.7

102.3

60

West Virginia

102.1

101.5

101.2

101.6

61

Virginia Tech

101.0

101.1

101.4

101.2

62

Temple

100.8

100.1

101.8

100.9

63

Louisiana

100.9

101.0

100.8

100.9

64

Tulane

99.8

100.5

100.4

100.2

65

Fresno St.

99.0

99.8

99.5

99.4

66

BYU

99.3

99.3

99.3

99.3

67

North Carolina St.

99.3

99.0

99.4

99.2

68

Arizona

99.0

99.0

98.9

99.0

69

U C L A

99.2

99.0

98.5

98.9

70

San Diego St.

98.3

100.1

98.3

98.9

71

Illinois

98.3

99.1

97.5

98.3

72

Wyoming

97.3

99.4

97.6

98.1

73

Houston

96.6

97.5

98.5

97.5

74

Oregon St.

97.3

98.3

96.8

97.5

75

Louisville

97.7

97.3

97.4

97.4

76

Western Michigan

97.5

96.4

97.2

97.0

77

Navy

95.5

98.1

96.2

96.6

78

Vanderbilt

97.0

95.7

95.7

96.1

79

Hawaii

95.7

97.0

94.9

95.9

80

Army

96.0

95.9

95.2

95.7

81

Colorado

95.9

95.5

95.4

95.6

82

Kansas

95.2

96.2

95.2

95.5

83

Arkansas

95.2

95.7

94.5

95.2

84

Georgia Tech

94.6

92.9

95.0

94.2

85

Troy

94.3

94.8

93.4

94.2

86

Louisiana Tech

94.0

94.0

94.3

94.1

87

Southern Miss.

94.2

92.6

94.3

93.7

88

Georgia Southern

93.3

92.7

92.2

92.8

89

Ohio

92.9

91.9

93.3

92.7

90

Florida Atlantic

91.9

91.4

92.8

92.0

91

Northern Illinois

92.2

91.1

92.3

91.9

92

Tulsa

91.0

91.8

92.0

91.6

93

Western Kentucky

90.6

91.8

92.4

91.6

94

Florida Int’l.

91.4

91.4

91.6

91.5

95

Ball St.

91.5

91.1

91.6

91.4

96

North Texas

91.2

90.5

91.7

91.1

97

U A B

89.9

91.8

90.8

90.9

98

Marshall

90.4

90.0

91.5

90.6

99

Georgia St.

89.6

91.0

89.3

90.0

100

Buffalo

89.3

89.8

90.4

89.8

101

Arkansas St.

89.7

89.8

89.2

89.6

102

Liberty

89.0

90.3

89.3

89.5

103

Middle Tennessee

89.1

88.1

89.2

88.8

104

South Florida

88.3

89.3

88.5

88.7

105

Toledo

88.3

88.6

89.0

88.6

106

Kent St.

88.2

88.2

88.7

88.4

107

Miami (Ohio)

88.5

87.0

88.7

88.1

108

Nevada

87.5

88.9

86.9

87.8

109

Eastern Michigan

87.2

87.4

87.7

87.5

110

Coastal Carolina

86.8

87.9

86.2

87.0

111

Central Michigan

85.9

86.7

86.9

86.5

112

Louisiana-Monroe

85.8

86.5

85.6

86.0

113

San Jose St.

85.4

87.5

85.0

86.0

114

U N L V

84.2

85.6

83.7

84.5

115

East Carolina

83.8

85.6

84.0

84.5

116

Colorado St.

82.8

86.6

83.1

84.2

117

Charlotte

83.6

83.9

83.6

83.7

118

Texas St.

83.4

84.2

83.0

83.5

119

Rutgers

84.1

83.6

82.9

83.5

120

New Mexico

80.0

82.8

79.0

80.6

121

Rice

79.9

81.3

79.2

80.2

122

New Mexico St.

78.2

80.6

78.5

79.1

123

Old Dominion

76.4

76.8

76.4

76.5

124

Texas-San Antonio

74.5

76.8

74.3

75.2

125

South Alabama

74.2

76.8

73.3

74.8

126

Bowling Green

74.1

74.0

74.2

74.1

127

Connecticut

71.9

75.4

70.8

72.7

128

Akron

72.5

72.6

71.4

72.1

129

U T E P

68.4

73.1

69.2

70.2

130

Massachusetts

62.3

64.1

61.2

62.5

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

110.4

109.6

111.0

110.3

2-1

5-2

Cincinnati

108.3

107.1

108.9

108.1

3-0

6-1

Temple

100.8

100.1

101.8

100.9

2-1

5-2

South Florida

88.3

89.3

88.5

88.7

1-2

3-4

East Carolina

83.8

85.6

84.0

84.5

0-3

3-4

Connecticut

71.9

75.4

70.8

72.7

0-4

1-6

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

SMU

107.2

107.0

108.5

107.6

3-0

7-0

Memphis

106.8

106.8

107.5

107.0

2-1

6-1

Tulane

99.8

100.5

100.4

100.2

2-1

5-2

Houston

96.6

97.5

98.5

97.5

1-2

3-4

Navy

95.5

98.1

96.2

96.6

3-1

5-1

Tulsa

91.0

91.8

92.0

91.6

0-3

2-5

AAC Averages

96.7

97.4

97.3

97.1

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

132.6

130.0

133.4

132.0

5-0

7-0

Florida St.

104.5

104.6

104.5

104.6

2-3

3-4

Syracuse

104.5

103.8

104.1

104.1

0-3

3-4

Wake Forest

103.5

102.9

103.8

103.4

2-1

6-1

Boston College

102.2

102.1

102.7

102.3

2-2

4-3

North Carolina St.

99.3

99.0

99.4

99.2

1-2

4-3

Louisville

97.7

97.3

97.4

97.4

2-2

4-3

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Virginia

108.8

109.0

108.9

108.9

3-1

5-2

Pittsburgh

106.6

106.4

106.9

106.6

2-1

5-2

North Carolina

105.7

105.7

106.9

106.1

2-2

3-4

Duke

105.6

104.9

105.3

105.3

2-2

4-3

Miami (Fla.)

104.8

104.1

105.5

104.8

1-3

3-4

Virginia Tech

101.0

101.1

101.4

101.2

3-2

5-2

Georgia Tech

94.6

92.9

95.0

94.2

1-3

2-5

ACC Averages

105.1

104.6

105.4

105.0

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

125.8

125.1

125.7

125.5

4-0

7-0

Iowa St.

115.9

116.6

116.2

116.2

3-1

5-2

Baylor

114.0

114.2

113.6

113.9

4-0

7-0

Texas

111.7

111.9

111.9

111.8

3-1

5-2

Oklahoma St.

108.6

109.0

108.0

108.5

1-3

4-3

Kansas St.

108.3

108.1

107.9

108.1

1-2

4-2

T C U

105.2

108.0

105.5

106.2

1-2

3-3

Texas Tech

105.8

106.0

105.0

105.6

1-3

3-4

West Virginia

102.1

101.5

101.2

101.6

1-3

3-4

Kansas

95.2

96.2

95.2

95.5

0-4

2-5

Big 12 Averages

109.3

109.7

109.0

109.3

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

137.4

136.4

138.4

137.4

4-0

7-0

Penn St.

122.7

121.8

122.8

122.5

4-0

7-0

Michigan

118.9

117.2

119.0

118.4

3-2

5-2

Michigan St.

114.3

113.5

114.0

113.9

2-2

4-3

Indiana

108.5

107.2

107.9

107.9

2-2

5-2

Maryland

104.5

103.7

103.3

103.8

1-3

3-4

Rutgers

84.1

83.6

82.9

83.5

0-5

1-6

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

121.7

121.4

121.7

121.6

3-1

6-1

Iowa

117.7

115.8

117.5

117.0

2-2

5-2

Minnesota

114.2

113.9

113.7

113.9

4-0

7-0

Purdue

106.8

106.6

106.3

106.6

1-3

2-5

Northwestern

105.4

104.5

104.3

104.7

0-4

1-5

Nebraska

103.4

104.2

102.8

103.5

2-2

4-3

Illinois

98.3

99.1

97.5

98.3

1-3

3-4

Big Ten Averages

111.3

110.6

110.9

110.9

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Florida Atlantic

91.9

91.4

92.8

92.0

2-1

4-3

Western Kentucky

90.6

91.8

92.4

91.6

4-0

5-2

Florida Int’l.

91.4

91.4

91.6

91.5

2-2

4-3

Marshall

90.4

90.0

91.5

90.6

2-1

4-3

Middle Tennessee

89.1

88.1

89.2

88.8

1-2

2-5

Charlotte

83.6

83.9

83.6

83.7

0-3

2-5

Old Dominion

76.4

76.8

76.4

76.5

0-3

1-6

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Louisiana Tech

94.0

94.0

94.3

94.1

3-0

6-1

Southern Miss.

94.2

92.6

94.3

93.7

2-1

4-3

North Texas

91.2

90.5

91.7

91.1

2-1

3-4

U A B

89.9

91.8

90.8

90.9

3-1

6-1

Rice

79.9

81.3

79.2

80.2

0-3

0-7

Texas-San Antonio

74.5

76.8

74.3

75.2

2-2

3-4

U T E P

68.4

73.1

69.2

70.2

0-3

1-5

CUSA Averages

86.1

86.7

86.5

86.4

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

120.5

118.8

120.4

119.9

x

5-1

BYU

99.3

99.3

99.3

99.3

x

3-4

Army

96.0

95.9

95.2

95.7

x

3-4

Liberty

89.0

90.3

89.3

89.5

x

5-2

New Mexico St.

78.2

80.6

78.5

79.1

x

0-7

Massachusetts

62.3

64.1

61.2

62.5

x

1-6

Indep. Averages

90.9

91.5

90.6

91.0

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Ohio

92.9

91.9

93.3

92.7

2-1

3-4

Buffalo

89.3

89.8

90.4

89.8

1-2

3-4

Kent St.

88.2

88.2

88.7

88.4

2-1

3-4

Miami (Ohio)

88.5

87.0

88.7

88.1

2-1

3-4

Bowling Green

74.1

74.0

74.2

74.1

1-2

2-5

Akron

72.5

72.6

71.4

72.1

0-3

0-7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

97.5

96.4

97.2

97.0

2-2

4-4

Northern Illinois

92.2

91.1

92.3

91.9

1-2

2-5

Ball St.

91.5

91.1

91.6

91.4

3-0

4-3

Toledo

88.3

88.6

89.0

88.6

1-2

4-3

Eastern Michigan

87.2

87.4

87.7

87.5

1-2

4-3

Central Michigan

85.9

86.7

86.9

86.5

3-1

5-3

MAC Averages

87.3

87.1

87.6

87.3

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Boise St.

106.1

105.8

106.4

106.1

3-0

6-1

Utah St.

104.9

104.0

105.9

104.9

3-0

4-2

Air Force

101.9

103.4

102.8

102.7

3-1

5-2

Wyoming

97.3

99.4

97.6

98.1

2-1

5-2

Colorado St.

82.8

86.6

83.1

84.2

1-2

2-5

New Mexico

80.0

82.8

79.0

80.6

0-3

2-5

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Fresno St.

99.0

99.8

99.5

99.4

1-1

3-3

San Diego St.

98.3

100.1

98.3

98.9

3-1

6-1

Hawaii

95.7

97.0

94.9

95.9

1-2

4-3

Nevada

87.5

88.9

86.9

87.8

1-2

4-3

San Jose St.

85.4

87.5

85.0

86.0

1-3

3-4

U N L V

84.2

85.6

83.7

84.5

1-3

2-5

MWC Averages

93.6

95.1

93.6

94.1

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

119.1

119.2

120.5

119.6

4-0

6-1

Washington

114.0

113.7

115.0

114.2

2-3

5-3

Washington St.

112.0

111.1

112.3

111.8

1-3

4-3

California

104.3

104.0

105.0

104.4

1-3

4-3

Stanford

103.6

102.7

103.1

103.1

2-3

3-4

Oregon St.

97.3

98.3

96.8

97.5

2-2

3-4

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

121.6

120.4

122.2

121.4

3-1

6-1

U S C

109.9

110.7

110.6

110.4

3-1

4-3

Arizona St.

108.4

107.7

109.2

108.5

2-2

5-2

Arizona

99.0

99.0

98.9

99.0

2-2

4-3

U C L A

99.2

99.0

98.5

98.9

2-2

2-5

Colorado

95.9

95.5

95.4

95.6

1-3

3-4

Pac-12 Averages

107.0

106.8

107.3

107.0

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

126.2

124.3

126.1

125.5

3-1

6-1

Florida

122.7

119.8

122.3

121.6

5-1

7-1

Missouri

114.2

111.8

114.0

113.3

2-1

5-2

South Carolina

113.6

111.9

113.4

113.0

2-3

3-4

Tennessee

107.3

106.9

105.7

106.6

1-3

2-5

Kentucky

106.2

104.8

104.8

105.3

1-4

3-4

Vanderbilt

97.0

95.7

95.7

96.1

1-3

2-5

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Alabama

135.3

132.0

136.0

134.4

4-0

7-0

L S U

129.4

127.1

129.5

128.7

3-0

7-0

Auburn

123.4

121.7

123.2

122.8

3-1

6-1

Texas A&M

116.7

115.0

115.3

115.7

2-2

4-3

Mississippi St.

110.1

106.4

114.5

110.3

1-3

3-4

Ole Miss

105.2

104.2

104.9

104.8

2-3

3-5

Arkansas

95.2

95.7

94.5

95.2

0-4

2-5

SEC Averages

114.5

112.7

114.3

113.8

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

108.8

107.8

108.6

108.4

3-0

6-0

Troy

94.3

94.8

93.4

94.2

1-1

3-3

Georgia Southern

93.3

92.7

92.2

92.8

2-1

3-3

Georgia St.

89.6

91.0

89.3

90.0

2-1

5-2

Coastal Carolina

86.8

87.9

86.2

87.0

0-3

3-4

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

100.9

101.0

100.8

100.9

2-1

5-2

Arkansas St.

89.7

89.8

89.2

89.6

1-2

3-4

Louisiana-Monroe

85.8

86.5

85.6

86.0

2-1

3-4

Texas St.

83.4

84.2

83.0

83.5

1-1

2-4

South Alabama

74.2

76.8

73.3

74.8

0-3

1-6

SBC Averages

90.7

91.3

90.2

90.7

 

 

Conference Ratings

 

#

League

Average

1

Southeastern

113.8

2

Big Ten

110.9

3

Big 12

109.3

4

Pac-12

107.0

5

Atlantic Coast

105.0

6

American

97.1

7

Mountain West

94.1

8

Independents

91.0

9

Sun Belt

90.7

10

Mid-American

87.3

11

Conference USA

86.4

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1

SMU

2

Appalachian St.

3

Cincinnati

4

Navy

5

Boise St.

 

 

This Week’s Bowl and Playoff Projections

 

There was considerable shuffling of the bowl projections this week, with these teams being affected the most (by alphabetical conference).

AAC: With Boise St. losing, the likelihood of the AAC Champion making it to the Cotton Bowl went way up.  SMU is the leader at the moment, but the Mustangs will have to win at Memphis more than likely if they are to stay home for a NY6 Bowl.  Memphis has the most favorable schedule, while Cincinnati and Navy are still in the race.

ACC: Clemson cannot afford to lose a game, and most every so-called college football expert believes this is so.  There is no strong number two in this league, but Notre Dame caucuses here for bowl invitation, so the Irish look like a sure thing to garner one of the NY6 Bowl bids.  Boston College, Louisville,  and Syracuse appear to be on the outside looking in from the Atlantic Division, while Miami now drops into our predicted 5-7 teams and falls out of the bowl picture for now.  The Coastal is still a wide open race, but we think Pittsburgh has the best chance to become fodder for Clemson in the Title Game.

Big 12: Baylor keeps surprising a lot of folks, as even the folks in Nevada were a bit surprised at how they handles Oklahoma State in Stillwater.  Can the Bears beat Oklahoma, or to put it more accurately beat them once in two tries?  If Oklahoma runs the table, the Sooners are in the Playoffs.  If Baylor runs the table, they will most likely make the playoffs.  If they split two games, then the LSU-Alabama loser at 11-1 will be in the Playoffs.  Texas and Iowa State appear to be jostling for third place as of now.  Meanwhile, a group that included Oklahoma State, Kansas State, TCU, and Texas Tech all have shots a bowl eligibility, and we believe three of the four will make it.

Big Ten: Wisconsin’s loss to Illinois, makes the Penn State-Ohio State game in Columbus a Playoff Qualifier.  The winner of that game has a great shot at being 13-0 and Playoff bound.  Michigan and Michigan State are now fighting it out for third in the East, while Indiana virtually locked up a fifth bowl eligible spot in the division.  Minnesota still gets no respect, and the Gophers will host Penn State in two weeks with a chance to get that respect.  If they upset the Nittany Lions, Roses could be in Minnesota’s future for the first time since January 1, 1962.  With the Big Ten having the most specific bowl rules, it appears that in order to keep teams out of making repeat bowl appearances, some teams with two fewer wins may jump over others for more prestigious bowls.

Conference USA: This league has no chance to earn the NY6 Bowl bid as too many teams would have to lose before a Louisiana Tech or UAB would even enter the contention picture.  Marshall will host Western Kentucky this weekend, and the winner will just about wrap up the East Division flag.  The West is still a four-team mess, but Louisiana Tech has the upper hand.  UAB hosts the Bulldogs in November, and the winner of that game will most likely take the West Division crown.

Independents: Since Notre Dame figures in the ACC bowl, we don’t include them here.  The big change here was removing Army from bowl contention and placing BYU back into bowl contention.  If BYU goes 6-6 or better, they are guaranteed the Hawaii Bowl bid.  Keep an eye on Liberty.  If Liberty can win at Rutgers this Saturday, the Flames are looking at an eight-win season.  Liberty has a secondary bowl agreement with the Cure, but we see that bowl being filled by the regular tie-ins.  Still, this school could make its first bowl appearance, because a lot of Southern bowls are going to need at-large teams.

MAC: This conference uses the work “MACtion” to describe its excitement, but Wacky MAC might be a more accurate theme in the Midwest.  Almost all the craziness is in the West Division, where Ball State has come from out of nowhere to take a commanding lead in the division.  The Cardinals were picked to finish last or second to last by most preseason predictions.  The other team picked to finish last or second to last may be chief competition.  Central Michigan plays Ball State in Muncie in November, and the winner is probably the Division champion.  In the East, Ohio won a big game over Kent State this past Saturday, and the Bobcats need only beat Buffalo to guarantee another East Division crown.  Mainstays at the top, Western Michigan and Toledo, are hurting right now, and Toledo must get quarterback Mitchell Guadagni back from injury, as they have no offense without him.

Mountain West: Boise State is now on the outside looking in for the Cotton Bowl.  The Broncos have two or three more games where the opponent could be talented enough to pin another loss on them.  Utah State hosts BSU in November, and if quarterback Jordan Love is 100% healthy, the Aggies might be the better team.  With Hawaii losing at home to Air Force, the San Diego State-Fresno State winner is going to take the West Division title.  This league will have one or two extra teams to fill at-large bowls, and we believe one of the two will get in.  Wyoming did not get an invitation last year, so the Cowboys could be heading Southeast of Laramie.

Pac-12: Oregon is one play away from being squarely in the Playoff picture, but then the Donner Party was just one mountain away from getting to the Pacific Coast safely.  The Ducks may have seen their hopes dashed by an Auburn snowstorm.  Utah’s loss to USC prevents the Utes from having a chance to make it to the Playoffs.  The only unsure thing in this conference is if California can get to 6-6 without Chase Garbers at QB.

SEC: Georgia looks quite vulnerable all of a sudden.  If the Bulldogs couldn’t pass or score versus South Carolina and Kentucky, how will they do so against Florida and Auburn.  Short of a major quick fix, it would not be shocking if Georgia lost twice more, giving Florida the East title.  With Missouri ineligible, that leaves South Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt fighting for two bowl bids.  USC and Vandy have too much to conquer to get to six wins, while Kentucky may have to beat rival Louisville to make it to bowl eligibility.  Tennessee has four winnable games left on their schedule, so for now, we are picking the Vols to sneak in at 6-6.  In the West, we believe Mississippi State is in big trouble and likely headed to 5-7 with Ole Miss.  Arkansas is the #14 team in the league and may finish 0-8.  The SEC is going to come up four to six bowl spots short.

Sunbelt: Appalachian State probably has the best overall shot of going 13-0 from a Group of 5 Conference, but can the Mountaineers jump over a 12-1 AAC champion?  Aside from that, the other news is that this league will have extra bowl eligible teams and should see at least one at-large bid come to the league.

 

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Central Michigan

Marshall

Frisco

AAC

At-large

SMU

[Toledo]

Cure

AAC

SBC

East Carolina

Arkansas St.

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

Louisiana Tech

Fresno St.

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Central Florida

Ball St.

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Western Michigan

Georgia St.

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

Boise St.

Washington St.

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

Southern Miss.

Appalachian St.

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Cincinnati

Florida Atlantic

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC

BYU

Navy

Independence

ACC

SEC

Florida St.

[UAB]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

North Carolina

Indiana

Military

ACC

AAC

Duke

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

North Carolina St.

Purdue

Texas

Big 12

SEC

Oklahoma St.

Texas A&M

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington

Iowa

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

Texas Tech

Arizona

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Pittsburgh

Iowa St.

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Memphis

Penn St.

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

North Texas

[Hawaii]

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Arizona St.

Michigan

Music City

SEC

ACC

[Wyoming]

Wake Forest

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Notre Dame

Florida

Belk

ACC

SEC

Virginia Tech

Kentucky

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

Virginia

USC

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

Kansas St.

[Liberty]

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Louisiana

San Diego St.

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Texas

Utah

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Georgia

Wisconsin

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Michigan St.

Auburn

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Minnesota

Oregon

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Baylor

LSU

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Tulane

[Troy]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Tennessee

Nebraska

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Eastern Michigan

Utah St.

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

[Western Ky.]

Air Force

Dollar General

MAC

SBC

Ohio U

Georgia Southern

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

Ohio St.

Oklahoma

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Alabama

Clemson

Championship

Fiesta

Peach

Ohio St.

Alabama

 

 

 

 

 

October 13, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: October 14, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Wednesday

October 16

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Troy

South Alabama

22.4

19.7

21.9

Thursday

October 17

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Arkansas St.

Louisiana

-6.5

-6.3

-6.5

Stanford

UCLA

12.6

12.2

13.5

Friday

October 18

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Florida Atlantic

Marshall

6.7

6.8

6.9

Syracuse

Pittsburgh

2.8

2.4

2.5

Northwestern

Ohio St.

-24.8

-24.4

-26.8

Fresno St.

UNLV

15.2

14.2

15.8

Saturday

October 19

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Virginia

Duke

2.0

2.7

2.0

Miami (Fla.)

Georgia Tech

15.9

16.8

16.4

Louisville

Clemson

-31.4

-28.6

-32.2

Georgia St.

Army

-6.7

-5.2

-6.6

Akron

Buffalo

-13.5

-13.7

-15.5

Maryland

Indiana

-0.6

0.3

-0.8

Connecticut

Houston

-24.5

-21.6

-28.3

Wake Forest

Florida St.

1.5

0.8

1.7

Georgia Southern

Coastal Carolina

10.7

8.9

10.5

Bowling Green

Central Michigan

-7.3

-8.2

-8.0

Central Florida

East Carolina

31.5

28.7

32.5

Cincinnati

Tulsa

21.7

19.8

21.7

Boston College

North Carolina St.

2.1

2.2

2.2

Iowa

Purdue

14.5

12.8

15.1

Ohio

Kent St.

7.2

6.2

7.1

Eastern Michigan

Western Michigan

-10.3

-9.1

-10.0

Texas

Kansas

22.5

21.6

23.0

Illinois

Wisconsin

-25.1

-23.9

-26.2

Utah St.

Nevada

19.8

16.8

21.4

BYU

Boise St.

-6.1

-6.0

-7.0

Wyoming

New Mexico

21.2

20.4

22.7

Utah

Arizona St.

16.0

15.3

15.6

Ball St.

Toledo

0.2

-0.5

-0.3

Miami (O)

Northern Illinois

-1.8

-2.6

-2.1

California

Oregon St.

13.6

12.2

15.3

Washington

Oregon

-1.4

-2.0

-1.7

USC

Arizona

10.3

10.9

10.7

Washington St.

Colorado

16.1

15.4

16.5

South Carolina

Florida

-5.4

-4.1

-4.9

Georgia

Kentucky

23.6

23.4

25.6

Kansas St.

TCU

5.8

2.5

5.2

Mississippi St.

LSU

-14.3

-15.7

-9.1

Alabama

Tennessee

32.0

29.1

34.3

Louisiana Tech

Southern Miss.

-0.9

0.6

-1.1

UAB

Old Dominion

12.9

14.3

13.5

Oklahoma

West Virginia

24.3

23.9

24.6

Oklahoma St.

Baylor

0.9

1.3

1.1

Arkansas

Auburn

-20.7

-18.1

-20.7

Ole Miss

Texas A&M

-8.8

-7.7

-7.4

Memphis

Tulane

5.3

4.2

5.0

Virginia Tech

North Carolina

-2.3

-2.2

-3.1

Rutgers

Minnesota

-25.0

-25.1

-25.3

Texas Tech

Iowa St.

-6.7

-7.0

-7.7

Navy

South Florida

5.2

6.8

5.3

Appalachian St.

Louisiana-Monroe

20.2

18.1

19.8

Vanderbilt

Missouri

-18.8

-17.6

-20.5

San Jose St.

San Diego St.

-10.4

-10.1

-10.8

Western Kentucky

Charlotte

8.0

8.5

9.5

North Texas

Middle Tennessee

4.8

5.3

5.7

UTSA

Rice

-3.9

-2.9

-3.5

SMU

Temple

5.6

6.3

5.6

Florida Int’l.

UTEP

27.8

22.9

27.5

Penn St.

Michigan

6.4

7.2

6.5

Hawaii

Air Force

4.0

4.0

2.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings 

Note:  We receive a lot of emails at our sister site asking us how X can be rated ahead of Y when Y beat X in September.  These are not rankings; they are ratings.  They are predictive in nature and not mean to rank the teams based on what they have done earlier in the season.  These ratings try to forecast the next week of games only.  

 

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Ohio St.

135.3

134.2

136.2

135.2

2

Alabama

135.8

132.5

136.5

134.9

3

Clemson

132.2

129.3

132.9

131.5

4

L S U

128.4

126.1

128.0

127.5

5

Georgia

126.7

124.9

126.9

126.2

6

Wisconsin

124.2

123.9

124.4

124.2

7

Oklahoma

124.4

123.6

124.1

124.0

8

Penn St.

122.5

121.6

122.6

122.3

9

Utah

121.5

120.2

122.0

121.2

10

Florida

122.4

119.4

121.8

121.2

11

Auburn

121.5

119.6

121.1

120.7

12

Notre Dame

120.2

118.5

120.1

119.6

13

Oregon

118.7

118.8

120.0

119.2

14

Michigan

119.1

117.4

119.2

118.6

15

Iowa

118.0

116.1

118.0

117.3

16

Iowa St.

115.7

116.3

115.9

116.0

17

Texas A&M

116.8

115.0

115.3

115.7

18

Missouri

116.4

114.0

116.5

115.6

19

Washington

114.2

113.9

115.3

114.5

20

Michigan St.

114.0

113.2

113.7

113.6

21

Texas

113.3

113.5

113.7

113.5

22

South Carolina

113.9

112.3

113.9

113.4

23

Minnesota

112.4

112.0

111.7

112.0

24

Baylor

112.1

112.2

111.5

111.9

25

Central Florida

111.5

110.6

112.4

111.5

26

Mississipppi St.

111.1

107.4

116.0

111.5

27

Washington St.

110.5

109.5

110.6

110.2

28

Oklahoma St.

110.0

110.5

109.6

110.0

29

Cincinnati

109.0

107.8

109.8

108.9

30

Arizona St.

108.5

107.9

109.4

108.6

31

U S C

108.1

108.8

108.6

108.5

32

Kansas St.

108.2

107.8

107.8

107.9

33

Boise St.

107.5

107.3

108.1

107.6

34

Indiana

108.3

106.8

107.5

107.5

35

Duke

107.7

107.1

107.6

107.5

36

Northwestern

107.5

106.7

106.5

106.9

37

Virginia

106.7

106.8

106.6

106.7

38

Miami (Fla.)

106.4

105.7

107.2

106.4

39

California

106.2

105.9

107.2

106.4

40

T C U

105.3

108.3

105.6

106.4

41

North Carolina

106.0

106.0

107.2

106.4

42

Purdue

106.5

106.3

105.8

106.2

43

Tennessee

106.8

106.4

105.2

106.1

44

Stanford

106.4

105.6

106.2

106.1

45

Texas Tech

106.0

106.3

105.3

105.9

46

Pittsburgh

105.8

105.5

105.9

105.7

47

SMU

105.1

104.9

106.2

105.4

48

Appalachian St.

105.9

104.7

105.5

105.4

49

Syracuse

105.6

105.0

105.4

105.3

50

Kentucky

106.0

104.5

104.3

104.9

51

Ole Miss

105.1

104.2

104.9

104.7

52

Memphis

104.6

104.4

105.1

104.7

53

Florida St.

104.5

104.6

104.5

104.6

54

Utah St.

104.6

103.4

105.6

104.5

55

Maryland

104.7

104.1

103.7

104.2

56

Wake Forest

103.5

102.9

103.8

103.4

57

Nebraska

103.1

103.9

102.5

103.2

58

Tulane

102.3

103.2

103.1

102.9

59

West Virginia

103.2

102.7

102.5

102.8

60

Temple

102.4

101.7

103.6

102.6

61

North Carolina St.

101.3

101.1

101.6

101.3

62

Arizona

100.8

100.9

100.9

100.9

63

Virginia Tech

100.7

100.8

101.1

100.9

64

Boston College

100.5

100.3

100.8

100.5

65

Louisiana

99.8

99.8

99.5

99.7

66

Air Force

98.9

100.3

99.7

99.6

67

Houston

98.0

98.8

100.3

99.0

68

San Diego St.

98.3

100.1

98.3

98.9

69

Hawaii

98.4

99.8

97.7

98.6

70

Wyoming

97.7

99.8

98.2

98.6

71

Western Michigan

98.8

97.7

98.7

98.4

72

BYU

98.4

98.3

98.1

98.3

73

Fresno St.

97.7

98.3

98.0

98.0

74

Arkansas

97.8

98.5

97.3

97.9

75

Louisville

97.9

97.8

97.7

97.8

76

Army

97.4

97.3

96.8

97.2

77

Colorado

97.4

97.1

97.1

97.2

78

U C L A

96.7

96.4

95.7

96.3

79

Illinois

96.1

96.9

95.1

96.1

80

Oregon St.

95.7

96.7

94.9

95.8

81

Southern Miss.

95.8

94.2

96.1

95.4

82

Kansas

93.9

94.9

93.7

94.2

83

Vanderbilt

95.1

93.8

93.5

94.1

84

Navy

93.0

95.6

93.5

94.1

85

Troy

94.2

94.4

93.1

93.9

86

Georgia Southern

94.1

93.5

93.2

93.6

87

Florida Atlantic

93.0

92.6

94.1

93.2

88

Georgia Tech

93.5

91.8

93.8

93.0

89

Ohio

92.9

91.9

93.3

92.7

90

Florida Int’l.

92.5

92.4

92.9

92.6

91

Louisiana Tech

92.4

92.4

92.5

92.4

92

Northern Illinois

92.5

91.6

92.8

92.3

93

Toledo

91.3

91.6

92.0

91.6

94

North Texas

91.3

90.7

92.0

91.3

95

South Florida

90.8

91.8

91.2

91.3

96

Tulsa

90.3

91.1

91.1

90.8

97

Arkansas St.

90.8

91.0

90.5

90.8

98

Western Kentucky

89.8

90.9

91.5

90.7

99

Marshall

89.3

88.8

90.2

89.4

100

Buffalo

88.9

89.3

89.9

89.3

101

Liberty

88.8

90.1

89.1

89.3

102

U A B

88.3

90.2

89.1

89.2

103

Ball St.

89.0

88.6

89.1

88.9

104

Middle Tennessee

89.0

87.9

88.9

88.6

105

Louisiana-Monroe

88.2

89.1

88.2

88.5

106

Georgia St.

88.2

89.6

87.7

88.5

107

Kent St.

88.2

88.2

88.7

88.4

108

Nevada

87.8

89.5

87.2

88.2

109

Miami (Ohio)

88.2

86.5

88.2

87.6

110

Eastern Michigan

85.9

86.1

86.2

86.1

111

Coastal Carolina

86.0

87.1

85.2

86.1

112

San Jose St.

85.4

87.5

85.0

86.0

113

U N L V

85.5

87.1

85.2

85.9

114

Central Michigan

84.8

85.6

85.7

85.3

115

Charlotte

84.4

84.8

84.5

84.6

116

Rutgers

84.9

84.5

83.9

84.4

117

Colorado St.

82.5

86.3

82.8

83.9

118

East Carolina

83.0

84.9

82.9

83.6

119

Texas St.

83.2

84.0

82.8

83.3

120

Rice

80.5

81.9

79.9

80.8

121

New Mexico

79.6

82.4

78.4

80.2

122

New Mexico St.

78.0

80.4

78.3

78.9

123

Old Dominion

78.0

78.4

78.1

78.2

124

South Alabama

74.3

77.2

73.6

75.1

125

Bowling Green

74.9

74.8

75.1

75.0

126

Texas-San Antonio

74.2

76.5

73.9

74.8

127

Akron

72.9

73.1

71.9

72.6

128

Connecticut

71.0

74.6

69.5

71.7

129

U T E P

67.3

72.1

67.9

69.1

130

Massachusetts

62.1

63.9

61.0

62.3

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

111.5

110.6

112.4

111.5

1-1

4-2

Cincinnati

109.0

107.8

109.8

108.9

2-0

5-1

Temple

102.4

101.7

103.6

102.6

2-0

5-1

South Florida

90.8

91.8

91.2

91.3

1-1

3-3

East Carolina

83.0

84.9

82.9

83.6

0-2

3-3

Connecticut

71.0

74.6

69.5

71.7

0-3

1-5

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

SMU

105.1

104.9

106.2

105.4

2-0

6-0

Memphis

104.6

104.4

105.1

104.7

1-1

5-1

Tulane

102.3

103.2

103.1

102.9

2-0

5-1

Houston

98.0

98.8

100.3

99.0

0-2

2-4

Navy

93.0

95.6

93.5

94.1

2-1

4-1

Tulsa

90.3

91.1

91.1

90.8

0-2

2-4

AAC Averages

96.7

97.5

97.4

97.2

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

132.2

129.3

132.9

131.5

4-0

6-0

Syracuse

105.6

105.0

105.4

105.3

0-2

3-3

Florida St.

104.5

104.6

104.5

104.6

2-2

3-3

Wake Forest

103.5

102.9

103.8

103.4

1-1

5-1

North Carolina St.

101.3

101.1

101.6

101.3

1-1

4-2

Boston College

100.5

100.3

100.8

100.5

1-2

3-3

Louisville

97.9

97.8

97.7

97.8

2-1

4-2

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Duke

107.7

107.1

107.6

107.5

2-1

4-2

Virginia

106.7

106.8

106.6

106.7

2-1

4-2

Miami (Fla.)

106.4

105.7

107.2

106.4

1-2

3-3

North Carolina

106.0

106.0

107.2

106.4

2-1

3-3

Pittsburgh

105.8

105.5

105.9

105.7

1-1

4-2

Virginia Tech

100.7

100.8

101.1

100.9

2-2

4-2

Georgia Tech

93.5

91.8

93.8

93.0

0-3

1-5

ACC Averages

105.2

104.6

105.4

105.1

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

124.4

123.6

124.1

124.0

3-0

6-0

Iowa St.

115.7

116.3

115.9

116.0

2-1

4-2

Texas

113.3

113.5

113.7

113.5

2-1

4-2

Baylor

112.1

112.2

111.5

111.9

3-0

6-0

Oklahoma St.

110.0

110.5

109.6

110.0

1-2

4-2

Kansas St.

108.2

107.8

107.8

107.9

0-2

3-2

T C U

105.3

108.3

105.6

106.4

1-1

3-2

Texas Tech

106.0

106.3

105.3

105.9

1-2

3-3

West Virginia

103.2

102.7

102.5

102.8

1-2

3-3

Kansas

93.9

94.9

93.7

94.2

0-3

2-4

Big 12 Averages

109.2

109.6

109.0

109.3

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

135.3

134.2

136.2

135.2

3-0

6-0

Penn St.

122.5

121.6

122.6

122.3

3-0

6-0

Michigan

119.1

117.4

119.2

118.6

3-1

5-1

Michigan St.

114.0

113.2

113.7

113.6

2-2

4-3

Indiana

108.3

106.8

107.5

107.5

1-2

4-2

Maryland

104.7

104.1

103.7

104.2

1-2

3-3

Rutgers

84.9

84.5

83.9

84.4

0-4

1-5

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

124.2

123.9

124.4

124.2

3-0

6-0

Iowa

118.0

116.1

118.0

117.3

1-2

4-2

Minnesota

112.4

112.0

111.7

112.0

3-0

6-0

Northwestern

107.5

106.7

106.5

106.9

0-3

1-4

Purdue

106.5

106.3

105.8

106.2

1-2

2-4

Nebraska

103.1

103.9

102.5

103.2

2-2

4-3

Illinois

96.1

96.9

95.1

96.1

0-3

2-4

Big Ten Averages

111.2

110.5

110.8

110.8

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Florida Atlantic

93.0

92.6

94.1

93.2

2-0

4-2

Florida Int’l.

92.5

92.4

92.9

92.6

1-2

3-3

Western Kentucky

89.8

90.9

91.5

90.7

3-0

4-2

Marshall

89.3

88.8

90.2

89.4

1-1

3-3

Middle Tennessee

89.0

87.9

88.9

88.6

1-1

2-4

Charlotte

84.4

84.8

84.5

84.6

0-2

2-4

Old Dominion

78.0

78.4

78.1

78.2

0-2

1-5

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Southern Miss.

95.8

94.2

96.1

95.4

2-0

4-2

Louisiana Tech

92.4

92.4

92.5

92.4

2-0

5-1

North Texas

91.3

90.7

92.0

91.3

1-1

2-4

U A B

88.3

90.2

89.1

89.2

2-1

5-1

Rice

80.5

81.9

79.9

80.8

0-2

0-6

Texas-San Antonio

74.2

76.5

73.9

74.8

1-2

2-4

U T E P

67.3

72.1

67.9

69.1

0-2

1-4

CUSA Averages

86.1

86.7

86.5

86.5

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

120.2

118.5

120.1

119.6

x

5-1

BYU

98.4

98.3

98.1

98.3

x

2-4

Army

97.4

97.3

96.8

97.2

x

3-3

Liberty

88.8

90.1

89.1

89.3

x

4-2

New Mexico St.

78.0

80.4

78.3

78.9

x

0-7

Massachusetts

62.1

63.9

61.0

62.3

x

1-6

Indep. Averages

90.8

91.4

90.6

90.9

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Ohio

92.9

91.9

93.3

92.7

1-1

2-4

Buffalo

88.9

89.3

89.9

89.3

0-2

2-4

Kent St.

88.2

88.2

88.7

88.4

2-0

3-3

Miami (Ohio)

88.2

86.5

88.2

87.6

1-1

2-4

Bowling Green

74.9

74.8

75.1

75.0

1-1

2-4

Akron

72.9

73.1

71.9

72.6

0-2

0-6

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

98.8

97.7

98.7

98.4

2-1

4-3

Northern Illinois

92.5

91.6

92.8

92.3

1-1

2-4

Toledo

91.3

91.6

92.0

91.6

1-1

4-2

Ball St.

89.0

88.6

89.1

88.9

2-0

3-3

Eastern Michigan

85.9

86.1

86.2

86.1

0-2

3-3

Central Michigan

84.8

85.6

85.7

85.3

2-1

4-3

MAC Averages

87.4

87.1

87.6

87.4

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Boise St.

107.5

107.3

108.1

107.6

3-0

6-0

Utah St.

104.6

103.4

105.6

104.5

2-0

3-2

Air Force

98.9

100.3

99.7

99.6

2-1

4-2

Wyoming

97.7

99.8

98.2

98.6

1-1

4-2

Colorado St.

82.5

86.3

82.8

83.9

1-2

2-5

New Mexico

79.6

82.4

78.4

80.2

0-2

2-4

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

San Diego St.

98.3

100.1

98.3

98.9

2-1

5-1

Hawaii

98.4

99.8

97.7

98.6

1-1

4-2

Fresno St.

97.7

98.3

98.0

98.0

0-1

2-3

Nevada

87.8

89.5

87.2

88.2

1-1

4-2

San Jose St.

85.4

87.5

85.0

86.0

1-2

3-3

U N L V

85.5

87.1

85.2

85.9

1-2

2-4

MWC Averages

93.7

95.1

93.7

94.2

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

118.7

118.8

120.0

119.2

3-0

5-1

Washington

114.2

113.9

115.3

114.5

2-2

5-2

Washington St.

110.5

109.5

110.6

110.2

0-3

3-3

California

106.2

105.9

107.2

106.4

1-2

4-2

Stanford

106.4

105.6

106.2

106.1

2-2

3-3

Oregon St.

95.7

96.7

94.9

95.8

1-2

2-4

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

121.5

120.2

122.0

121.2

2-1

5-1

Arizona St.

108.5

107.9

109.4

108.6

2-1

5-1

U S C

108.1

108.8

108.6

108.5

2-1

3-3

Arizona

100.8

100.9

100.9

100.9

2-1

4-2

Colorado

97.4

97.1

97.1

97.2

1-2

3-3

U C L A

96.7

96.4

95.7

96.3

1-2

1-5

Pac-12 Averages

107.1

106.8

107.3

107.1

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

126.7

124.9

126.9

126.2

2-1

5-1

Florida

122.4

119.4

121.8

121.2

4-1

6-1

Missouri

116.4

114.0

116.5

115.6

2-0

5-1

South Carolina

113.9

112.3

113.9

113.4

2-2

3-3

Tennessee

106.8

106.4

105.2

106.1

1-2

2-4

Kentucky

106.0

104.5

104.3

104.9

1-3

3-3

Vanderbilt

95.1

93.8

93.5

94.1

0-3

1-5

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Alabama

135.8

132.5

136.5

134.9

3-0

6-0

L S U

128.4

126.1

128.0

127.5

2-0

6-0

Auburn

121.5

119.6

121.1

120.7

2-1

5-1

Texas A&M

116.8

115.0

115.3

115.7

1-2

3-3

Mississippi St.

111.1

107.4

116.0

111.5

1-2

3-3

Ole Miss

105.1

104.2

104.9

104.7

2-2

3-4

Arkansas

97.8

98.5

97.3

97.9

0-3

2-4

SEC Averages

114.6

112.7

114.4

113.9

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

105.9

104.7

105.5

105.4

2-0

5-0

Troy

94.2

94.4

93.1

93.9

0-1

2-3

Georgia Southern

94.1

93.5

93.2

93.6

1-1

2-3

Georgia St.

88.2

89.6

87.7

88.5

2-1

4-2

Coastal Carolina

86.0

87.1

85.2

86.1

0-2

3-3

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

99.8

99.8

99.5

99.7

1-1

4-2

Arkansas St.

90.8

91.0

90.5

90.8

1-1

3-3

Louisiana-Monroe

88.2

89.1

88.2

88.5

2-0

3-3

Texas St.

83.2

84.0

82.8

83.3

1-1

2-4

South Alabama

74.3

77.2

73.6

75.1

0-2

1-5

SBC Averages

90.5

91.0

89.9

90.5

 

 

Conference Power Ratings

#

League

Average

1

SEC

113.9

2

BTen

110.8

3

B12

109.3

4

P12

107.1

5

ACC

105.1

6

AAC

97.2

7

MWC

94.2

8

Ind

90.9

9

SUN

90.5

10

MAC

87.4

11

CUSA

86.5

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1

Boise St.

2

SMU

3

Cincinnati

4

Appalachian St.

5

Temple

 

This Week’s Bowl and Playoff Projections

 

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Ball St.

Florida Atlantic

Frisco

AAC

At-large

Navy

[North Texas]

Cure

AAC

SBC

Central Florida

Arkansas St.

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

Marshall

Fresno St.

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Cincinnati

Western Michigan

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Central Michigan

Troy

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

San Diego St.

Arizona

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

Southern Miss.

Appalachian St.

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Memphis

UAB

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC

Hawaii

SMU

Independence

ACC

SEC

Florida St.

[Western Kentucky]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

Louisville

[Buffalo]

Military

ACC

AAC

North Carolina St.

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

Duke

Michigan St.

Texas

Big 12

SEC

Oklahoma St.

Texas A&M

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

Arizona St.

Michigan

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

Texas Tech

Washington St.

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

North Carolina

Iowa St.

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Minnesota

Boise St.

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

Louisiana Tech

[Nevada]

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington

Purdue

Music City

SEC

ACC

[Georgia Southern]

Wake Forest

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Notre Dame

LSU

Belk

ACC

SEC

Pittsburgh

Mississippi St.

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

Virginia

USC

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

Kansas St.

[California]

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Georgia St.

Utah St.

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Baylor

Utah

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Florida

Iowa

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Penn St.

Auburn

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Wisconsin

Oregon

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Texas

Georgia

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Tulane

[Miami (Fla.]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

South Carolina

Indiana

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Kent St.

Wyoming

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

[Florida Int’l.]

Air Force

Dollar General

MAC

SBC

Toledo

Louisiana

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

Clemson

Ohio St.

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Alabama

Oklahoma

Championship

Fiesta

Peach

Ohio St.

Alabama

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

Reverse Engineering the NCAA Playoffs

Here is our best estimate as to which teams would have qualified for the Playoffs in the years before there were playoffs.  This covers the PiRate Ratings era (1969-Present)

 

 

2013: Florida St., Auburn, Alabama, Michigan St.

Auburn and Alabama would have met in a rematch

 

2012: Notre Dame, Alabama, Florida, Oregon

Ohio State was 12-0 but ineligible that year

 

2011: LSU, Alabama, Stanford, Oklahoma St.

Andrew Luck versus the Crimson Tide and Les Myles against his old team

 

2010: Auburn, Oregon, TCU, Wisconsin

3, 12-0 teams and a possible Andy Dalton vs. Cam Newton in the Championship Game

 

2009: Alabama, Texas, TCU, Boise St.

All four teams were 12-0.  Nick Saban’s only undefeated team may have been one of his weaker teams at Alabama.  

 

2008: Florida, Oklahoma, Alabama, Utah

This is a year where an 8-team playoff would have been needed, as there were nine teams that could be considered playoff worthy.  Only Utah was undefeated, and the Utes slaughtered Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.

 

2007: Ohio St., LSU, Kansas, Oklahoma

This would have been a difficult year for a Selection Committee with only three deserving teams.  Number four could have been Missouri, Georgia, or USC.

 

2006: Ohio St., Florida, Michigan, Louisville

Ohio State and Michigan were both 11-0 when they met in Columbus.  The Buckeyes’ home field advantage is historically between 3.5 and 4.5 points, and they only won this game by three.  Might Michigan have been a little better that year?  Florida and Michigan in a semifinal game might have set up a rematch of the bitter rivals.

 

2005: USC, Texas, Penn St., Oregon

This was definitely a year where only two teams were needed for playoffs.  It would have been ashamed if either USC or Texas had been upset in a semifinal game, robbing the nation of one of the best Championship Games ever.

 

2004: USC, Oklahoma, Auburn, Utah

All four of these teams were 12-0 at the end of the regular season.  Auburn and Utah were won impressive bowl games, and this would have been one of the best playoff years ever.

 

2003: USC, LSU, Oklahoma, Michigan

The BCS folks got this one wrong by not taking USC that year, and the AP Poll voted USC the national champion over LSU.

 

2002: Miami, Ohio St., Iowa, Georgia

Ohio State and Iowa did not play each other that year, as this pre-dates the Big Ten Championship Game.

 

2001: Miami, Oregon, Nebraska, Illinois

This was another tough year, and it didn’t need a playoff at all, as Miami was clearly 7-10 points better than anybody else in the nation.  Illinois gets the nod over Maryland and Colorado.

 

2000: Oklahoma, Washington, Miami, Florida St.

This was a year where a 6-team tournament, adding Oregon State and Virginia Tech, would have been needed.  Washington was more deserving than Florida State that year.

 

1999: Florida St., Virginia Tech, Nebraska, Kansas St.

The two teams that played for the title were the only legitimate teams that should have played for a title that year.

 

1998: Tennessee, Ohio St., Florida St., Kansas St.

UCLA might have been the best team headed into the final weeks that year, but the Bruins made a mistake playing at Miami to close out the regular season.  They were not ready for the heat and humidity, or the Miami speed.  Ohio State was more deserving of the Championship Game bid than Florida State.

1997: Nebraska, Michigan, Tennessee, Florida St.

Peyton Manning versus Charles Woodson in a battle of the top two Heisman Trophy candidates.  Then, in all likelihood, it would have been Michigan and Nebraska in one of the best Championship Games never to be played.

1996: Florida St., Arizona St., Florida, Ohio St.

John Cooper had two teams that were probably the best in the land, but his Buckeyes always found a way to lay an egg at some point during the season.  This Buckeyes’ team probably would have beaten Florida St. in a semifinal game.

1995: Nebraska, Florida, Tennessee, Northwestern

Florida, Tennessee, and Northwestern could have combined their rosters and still lost to Nebraska by 14 points.  This was the most dominant team of the last 25 years.

1994: Nebraska, Penn St., Alabama, Miami

A 10-0-1 Texas A&M team was on probation that year.  Nebraska and Penn State would have been an incredible game had they played that year.  In those days, the Big Ten champion went to the Rose Bowl, and there was no guarantee that the top two teams would play each other.

1993: Nebraska, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Florida St.

An 11-0 Auburn team may have been the best in the nation that year, but the Tigers were on probation.  Notre Dame’s upset loss at Boston College kept the Irish out of the National Championship Game, allowing a Florida State team that ND beat to sneak in to the Orange Bowl.  The Irish were probably the best team that year.

1992: Alabama, Miami, Texas A&M, Florida St.

One wide field goal attempt against Miami was all that kept Florida State from going undefeated.  Had the ball been true, there would have been four teams with no losses.  It didn’t matter that year, as ‘Bama was clearly  the best team in the nation with the best defense in modern day football (Wisconsin has a chance to take that moniker away this year if they run the table and stop Ohio State’s offense).

1991: Washington, Miami, Florida, Michigan

Washington and Miami needed to meet for the national championship that year.  The PiRate Ratings had Washington rated about two points ahead of Miami that year.

1990: Georgia Tech, Colorado, Texas, Miami

This was one of the toughest years to pick any of the teams.  At 10-2, Miami was probably the best team that year, as they pasted Texas in the Cotton Bowl 46-3, committing more yards in penalties than Texas had in offense.  Miami’s defense would have shut down Georgia Tech in the semifinals, and none of the triple option teams ever had success against the Hurricane defenses of those times.  Colorado’s I-bone would have been shut down.

 

1989: Colorado, Miami, Notre Dame, Michigan

Colorado was the only undefeated team, but they may have been the weakest of these four teams.  A Notre Dame-Michigan title game would have been a good one that year.

 

1988: Notre Dame, West Virginia, Miami, Auburn

This was another tough year to come up with team number four, as five or six other teams could have slid into this spot.  A third-seeded Miami team would have swept both playoff games by double digit margins.  Miami’s only loss that year was at Notre Dame by one point on one of the worst blown calls ever made in a game with championship implications.  Facing 4th down and 7 at the Notre Dame 11 yard line, Hurricane quarterback Steve Walsh threw a pass to receiver Cleveland Gary inside the five yard line.  Gary caught the ball and stretched forward.  The ball hit the goalline before any other part of Gary’s body touched the ground.  Not only did the referees not award Miami a touchdown, they at first called a fumble that was recovered by Notre Dame, after the ball was dropped just after Gary pounded it on the goalline.  Then to make a second mistake, the referees said it wasn’t a fumble and then gave the ball to Notre Dame on downs, when Miami only needed to get to the four yard line.  Miami would have beaten Notre Dame in a rematch by 14-17 points that year.

I heard a funny quip on sports radio the Monday after that game.  The host said that the referees, O’Brien, O’Malley, O’Sullivan, Kelly, Murphy,  and Ryan, decided that the goalline can cause a fumble.

 

1987: Miami, Oklahoma, Florida St., Syracuse

This was another one of those wide right years for Florida State in a one-point loss to Miami.  These two rivals would have most likely played for the title that year.

 

1986: Miami, Penn St., Oklahoma, Michigan

This would have been an interesting playoff, especially the Miami-Michigan game.  Bo Schembechler’s defense would have given Vinny Testaverde similar fits to the one Penn State gave him in the real Championship Game.  It might have been Penn State and Michigan playing for the title.

 

1985: Penn St., Oklahoma, Iowa, Miami

Florida at 9-1-1 might have been the best team at the end of the year, but the Gators were on probation.  This would have been a fairly even season with three close playoff games.

 

1984: Washington, Oklahoma, South Carolina, BYU

Yes, BYU was the real national champion that year, but they won it only because this was a down year in the major conferences.  Washington would have quickly dismissed BYU in the semifinals, while Oklahoma would have edged South Carolina.  Florida was on probation for the first of two years and went 9-1-1.  The Gators were probably the best team in the nation by the end of November, slaughtering ranked Georgia, Auburn, and Florida State teams by a combined 78-20.

 

1983: Nebraska, Texas, Auburn, Illinois

The actual national champion Miami would not have been invited to the Playoffs that year.  Illinois beat three top 10 teams that year by a combined 66-19 score.  10-1 Auburn only lost to 11-0 Texas.  Nebraska might have had trouble facing Illinois’s passing game since the Cornhuskers did not face a passing offense like this in the Big 8.  Texas beat three top 10 teams during the season and held opponents to less than 10 points per game.  This should have been an interesting Playoff season.

 

1982: Georgia, Penn St., SMU, Nebraska

SMU wasn’t yet on probation, even though this team was the one with all the violations.  The Pony Express would have given Penn State a tough game, while Georgia and Nebraska should have been a close one as well.  Any of the four teams could have won the title.  Nebraska’s lone loss was at Penn State by a field goal.

 

1981: Clemson, Georgia, Pittsburgh, Alabama

The two best teams in the nation that year were Clemson and Pittsburgh.  The Panthers were cruising along as the number one team and had a 10-0 record when they hosted Penn State in the regular season finale.  After scoring two quick touchdowns to take a 14-0 lead on the Nittany Lions.  Pitt outgained Penn State by more than 140 yards in the first quarter, and it looked like this would be a blowout win for the top-rated team.  Then, Penn State woke up and went on a scoring tear like Army in the World War II years, scoring 48 points in the last three quarters on a Pitt team that had given up just 92 points in its first ten games.  Poor Dan Marino–always a bridesmaid and never a bride. 

 

1980: Georgia, Pittsburgh, Florida St., Baylor

Hershel Walker would have rolled over Baylor in the semifinals, setting up an interesting championship game against either Pitt or FSU.  

 

1979: Alabama, Ohio State, USC, Florida St.

All four of these teams went unbeaten (USC had a tie), and this would have been an interesting playoff for sure.  This Alabama team got through the year unscathed against a rather weak schedule.  USC was probably the best team in the nation that year.  The Trojans were stacked with talent.  Both Charles White and Marcus Allen were the featured backs out of the I-formation.  Paul McDonald was one of the best passing quarterbacks the Trojans had up to that time.  Brad Budde was the best offensive lineman in the nation that year.  The USC secondary might have been the best one in college football history with Ronnie Lott, Dennis Smith, Jeff Fisher, Herb Ward, and Joey Browner.

 

1978: USC, Alabama, Oklahoma, Penn St.

Penn State was the only undefeated team that year, but their schedule included a lot of easy wins.  USC won at Alabama and were probably the best team in the nation that year.

 

1977: Texas, Michigan, Alabama, Oklahoma

Actual National Champion Notre Dame would not have made the Playoffs in a year where at least eight if not 12 teams were worthy.  Michigan appeared to be the superior team in the land for the second consecutive year, but the Wolverines came up short for the second year in a row.  Alabama probably had the best team at the end of the regular season, and the Tide won at Number 1 USC earlier in the year.  

 

1976: Pittsburgh, Michigan, USC, Georgia

Johnny Majors had Tony Dorsett as his tailback, and TD was nearly unstoppable.  Throw in a stingy defense that intercepted a lot of passes and recovered a lot of fumbles, and the Panthers would have probably won this Playoffs with ease.  When on their game, Michigan was good enough to play on an even level with Pitt, but up to this point in his career, no Bo Schembechler-coached team had won its final game of the year.

 

1975: Ohio St., Alabama, Oklahoma, Arizona St.

Ohio State was undefeated with Heisman Trophy running back Archie Griffin and bulldozer Pete Johnson both topping 1,000 yards rushing.  Unlike many of Woody Hayes’ teams, this one had a decent passing attack with Cornelius Greene passing to Brian Baschnagel.  The Buckeyes beat four ranked teams in the regular season by a combined 100-29 score.  However, by the end of November, Alabama was clearly the best team in the nation.  An early stumble to open the season at Missouri, a school that pulled off several major upsets during this era, pushed the Tide out to sea.  Bear’s boys were unstoppable after that loss.  Alabama gave up just 46 points after that loss in week one, winning 10 games with ease.  Washington coach Don James after losing to ‘Bama 52-0 said they were the best team he had ever seen as a coach or player.

 

1974: Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, USC

Oklahoma was the clear cut best team in the nation, but the Sooners were on probation this year.  OU would have easily beaten any of these four teams that year.  These four that weren’t on probation would have played three close games with USC likely coming out on top.

 

 

1973: Notre Dame, Alabama, Penn St., Ohio St.

This was one of the most incredible years in college football history.  Left out in this equation is a 10-0-1 Michigan team that tied 9-0-1 Ohio State but lost their quarterback for the season in the Big Game.

This group of four could have played this tournament a dozen times and each team might have won it three times each.  Our PiRate Ratings had Ohio State the number one team after the bowls that year.

 

1972: USC, Oklahoma, Alabama, Ohio St.

This was a time when the “haves” had a lot more than the “have nots,” and thus as many as 10 teams had playoff-worthy resumes.  In the end, it really didn’t matter this season, because USC was the best team in the nation by at least a touchdown over Oklahoma and more than 10 points over anybody else.  This was the best West Coast team ever. It had two future NFL quarterbacks in Mike Rae and Pat Haden.  Fullback Sam “Bam” Cunnigham blocked for Anthony Davis, while a trio of star receivers, Lynn Swann, J.K. McKay, and Charles Young, forced defenses to play three and four deep in the secondary.

 

1971: Nebraska, Oklahoma, Alabama, Michigan

The 1971 Nebraska team ranks as the all-time best team in PiRate Ratings’ history (1969 to present).  The 1971 Oklahoma team ranks as one of the 10 best in PiRate Ratings’ history.  These two teams were so far ahead of the rest of the nation.  Oklahoma would have beaten Alabama by at least three touchdowns, while Nebraska would have likely beaten Michigan by a score like 31-0.  The rematch for the National Championship might have been the best one ever had there been Playoffs back then.

1970: Ohio St., Texas, Nebraska, Arizona St.

Arizona State didn’t get any respect in 1970, but this undefeated team might have been strong enough to knock off Ohio State.  The schedule was suspect, but if you look at the roster, it was stocked with future NFL players.  Notre Dame and Tennessee were equally qualified to make the Playoffs this year, and a Committee might have given the edge to the Fighting Irish with Joe Theismann at quarterback.

 

1969: Penn St., Texas, Arkansas, USC

This is the year that the PiRate Ratings were born (although not named the PiRate Ratings until 2001).  It was because so  many teams were really good this season that I started making ratings.   If ever a season needed a 12-team Playoff, this is the one.  A case could have been made for 16 teams that year.  

If you ask me, Penn State would have won the title had there been Playoffs.  This Nittany Lion defense and special teams were among the best ever, as they scored or set up more points than they allowed.  When your number two and number three running backs are future All-pros Franco Harris and Lydell Mitchell, and when your starting quarterback went undefeated for his entire football career (Youth league to College), how can you deny this 11-0 team that finished the 1969 season riding a 22-game winning streak and 30 game unbeaten streak?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

March 4, 2019

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For Monday, March 4, 2019

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:32 am

March 4, 2019

Seed

Team

Team

Team

Team

1

Duke

Gonzaga

Virginia

Kentucky

2

Tennessee

Michigan

North Carolina

Michigan St.

3

Houston

LSU

Purdue

Texas Tech

4

Kansas

Marquette

Wisconsin

Florida St.

5

Kansas St.

Virginia Tech

Nevada

Iowa St.

6

Maryland

Mississippi St.

Cincinnati

Villanova

7

Buffalo

Louisville

Baylor

Iowa

8

Auburn

Wofford

Syracuse

Washington

9

Ole Miss

Virginia Commonwealth

Florida

St. John’s

10

TCU

Texas

Central Florida

Ohio St.

11

Oklahoma

Alabama

Minnesota

Seton Hall

12

North Carolina St./Temple

Arizona St./Utah St.

Belmont

Lipscomb

13

New Mexico St.

Old Dominion

Vermont

Hofstra

14

UC-irvine

Yale

South Dakota St.

Texas St.

15

Montana

Colgate

Drake

Wright St.

16

Campbell

Sam Houston St.

Norfolk St./St. Francis (PA)

Siena/Texas Southern

 

 

Last 4 In

North Carolina St.

Arizona St.

Utah St.

Temple

Last 4 Bye

Oklahoma

Alabama

Minnesota

Seton Hall

First 4 Out

Clemson

Indiana

Georgetown

Furman

Next 4 Out

Murray St.

Nebraska

Xavier

Saint Mary’s

 

Bids By Conference

Bids

ACC

8

Big Ten

8

Big 12

8

SEC

8

AAC

4

Big East

4

MWC

2

Pac-12

2

One-Bid Leagues

24

 

 

 

 

 

 

March 1, 2019

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For Friday, March 1, 2019

March 1, 2019

Seed Team Team Team Team
1 Gonzaga Virginia Kentucky Duke
2 Michigan St. North Carolina Tennessee Michigan
3 Houston Purdue LSU Texas Tech
4 Kansas Virginia Tech Marquette Nevada
5 Kansas St. Iowa St. Florida St. Mississippi St.
6 Maryland Wisconsin Baylor Villanova
7 Wofford Cincinnati Louisville Buffalo
8 Ohio St. Florida Syracuse Iowa
9 St. John’s Washington Auburn Oklahoma
10 Ole Miss TCU North Carolina St. Virginia Commonwealth
11 Central Florida Texas Utah St. Temple
12 Alabama/Seton Hall Clemson/Minnesota Belmont Lipscomb
13 New Mexico St. Hofstra Yale Vermont
14 Old Dominion South Dakota St. UC-Irvine Montana
15 Texas St. Radford Drake Wright St.
16 Colgate Sam Houston Texas Sou./St. Francis (PA) Siena/Norfolk St.

 

Last 4 In Alabama Clemson Minnesota Seton Hall
Last 4 Bye Central Florida Texas Utah St. Temple
First 4 Out Arizona St. Butler Georgetown Furman
Next 4 Out UNC Greensboro Dayton Murray St. Memphis

 

Bids By Conference Bids
ACC 9
Big Ten 8
Big 12 8
SEC 8
AAC 4
Big East 4
MWC 2
One-Bid Leagues 25

 

Note: We expect a school other than Washington will win the Pac-12 Conference Tournament and thus allow two Pac-12 teams to go to the NCAA Tournament.  For now, Arizona State has played itself outside the at-large pool after a short stay in the last four in.

We also believe there is a decent chance that a school other than Buffalo might win the MAC Championship.  If this happens, then the MAC will get two teams in the field.

Wofford is most likely going to get in the field whether or not they earn the automatic bid from the Southern Conference.  Should UNC-Greensboro, Furman, or East Tennessee State win the SoCon Tournament over Wofford, then we believe the Terriers will get an at-large bid, giving this league its first ever multi-bid season.

The Ohio Valley Conference could get consideration for two teams if Belmont and Murray State keep winning and meet in the Championship Game of the OVC Tournament.

Should the nearly impossible happen, and Gonzaga loses in the West Coast Conference Tournament, then the WCC will get two bids.  Saint Mary’s could strengthen its at-large hopes if they upset Gonzaga Saturday night.

 

 

 

 

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