The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 23, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 23, 2020

Games Being Played Thursday

Home

Visitor

Spread

UNC Asheville

Radford

-4.4

Ohio St.

Minnesota

7.7

Hofstra

Delaware

6.7

Stetson

NJIT

-0.1

Kennesaw St.

North Alabama

-6.1

William & Mary

James Madison

10.2

Cleveland St.

Green Bay

-3.1

Detroit

IUPUI

7.0

Winthrop

USC Upstate

16.3

Northeastern

Drexel

7.4

Oakland

Illinois Chicago

5.7

Youngstown St

Milwaukee

3.6

Murray St.

Belmont

-1.1

High Point

Gardner-Webb

-6.5

Old Dominion

Florida Intl.

3.0

Central Connecticut

Sacred Heart

-13.4

Merrimack

Fairleigh Dickinson

7.4

Long Island

St. Francis (PA)

0.6

St. Francis (NY)

Robert Morris

-3.2

North Florida

Liberty

-4.9

Charlotte

Florida Atlantic

4.9

Bryant

Wagner

8.7

Hampton

Campbell

-2.3

Elon

Towson

-5.8

Lipscomb

Jacksonville

2.2

Charleston Southern

Presbyterian

5.9

Middle Tennessee

Louisiana Tech

-12.0

North Texas

UTSA

10.1

Rice

UTEP

-2.0

Arkansas St.

South Alabama

0.2

Omaha

Western Illinois

11.6

South Dakota

Purdue Fort Wayne

7.1

Utah

Washington

-3.4

North Dakota

Denver

9.3

UAB

Southern Miss

8.7

Indiana

Michigan St.

-3.4

Austin Peay

Tennessee St.

7.5

Missouri St.

Valparaiso

3.4

SIU-Edwardsville

SEMO

0.8

Tennessee Tech

Morehead St.

-3.2

Eastern Illinois

UT-Martin

8.9

Jacksonville St.

Eastern Kentucky

8.8

Grand Canyon

Seattle

1.6

Idaho St.

Montana

-1.8

Weber St.

Montana St.

0.2

Houston

UConn

9.1

Colorado

Washington St.

12.8

Loyola Marymount

Portland

5.6

Santa Clara

Pepperdine

3.8

Cal St. Bakersfield

Utah Valley

6.2

 

Interesting Analytics

Every year at this time, the PiRates begin looking at some of the advanced analytics that we have used to gauge potential NCAA Tournament success.

Our R+T Rating ™, is our personal creation that attempts to predict how many more opportunities to score a team might have in a game as compared to an average team.  It relies on rebounding margin and turnover margin with an added emphasis on steals and protecting the ball from being stolen by the other team.  It attempts to estimate the potential extra points available to the team due to the “hustle stats.”

In the past, when a team has an R+T of 15.0 or better, that team has the ability to score on enough extra opportunities to go on a big spurt and put another team away.  When UCLA was the dominant basketball team during John Wooden’s runs, their R+T stats were always at the top of the nation.  When they had the 1964 small lineup that went 30-0, the 2-2-1 zone press created turnover after turnover by the opponent with a lot of steals.  These extra opportunities prevented the other team from scoring, but they also led to easy fast break points, and the Bruins had incredible scoring spurts in every game, the most famous being the incredible 16-0 run in just over two minutes before halftime that put NCAA Championship Game with Duke out of reach.

The Lew Alcindor (Kareem Abdul Jabbar) and Bill Walton years saw the Bruins totally dominating on the glass while still getting a nice number of steals and forcing turnovers.  These UCLA teams frequently had 20 extra scoring opportunities a game, and with Jabbar and Walton both hitting better than 60% from the field, the Bruins were unstoppable.

Long after UCLA won those 10 titles, the ability to get extra scoring opportunities has remained consistently and vitally important in NCAA Tournament games.  To get to the Big Dance, teams must display an ability to play very tough defense, and teams with good offenses and little else become pretenders when every opponent they face will play much better defense than the average opponent in the regular season.  Thus, the ability to create extra scoring opportunities and the ability to prevent extra scoring opportunities take precedence over just being able to shoot the ball more accurately than the opponent.

Obviously, we do not throw the baby out with the bath water.  Shooting is still quite important.  After all, the object of the game is to put the ball in the basket more than the other team.  If a team gets 10 more chances to put the ball in the basket, but they shoot like our Captain trying to putt at Pebble Beach, 30 more chances might not be enough to overcome the inaccurate marksmanship.  Obviously, shooting ability and ability to prevent made shots remain important.

Then, there is the third key factor.  If State only plays Southeast Northwest Community College and similar teams, they will inevitably end up with impressive stats.  If Tech plays Kansas, Duke, Maryland, Oregon, and Kentucky out of conference, it is going to be difficult, make that impossible, to end up with stats as impressive at State.  Thus strength of schedule must play as important a roll as the other two stats.  Think of schedule strength in the same vein as class in thoroughbred horse racing, where a winner of a claiming race is not going to compete well against the fifth place winner from a Grade 1 Classic race, even if in the last two races, their times for 1 1/8 miles were about the same.

Let’s put all three key stats together and look at a sampling of teams that are producing quality numbers across the board.

 

Team

R+T

TS%

SOS

Baylor

19.1

5.8

55.1

Butler

15.2

8.8

57.2

UC-Irvine

20.2

5.6

50.4

Duke

21.5

8.4

55.7

Gonzaga

27.7

10.1

49.0

Houston

25.5

4.2

54.4

Illinois

22.2

6.2

55.4

Indiana

20.6

3.2

54.7

Kansas

18.5

10.9

62.7

Kentucky

16.2

8.3

52.2

Liberty

15.9

12.6

43.4

Louisiana State

16.9

6.6

54.4

Maryland

16.7

5.2

58.4

Michigan State

21.6

10.2

57.7

New Mexico State

18.3

4.3

49.3

Oral Roberts

16.3

2.1

53.6

Rutgers

19.7

6.2

55.7

San Diego State

18.4

9.9

49.6

Southern Utah

15.7

8

48.2

Stephen F. Austin

22.5

2.9

42.7

Utah State

20.8

6.5

52.3

West Virginia

21.7

5.9

58.8

What you see above are the R+T ratings for 22 teams in column 1.  The formula for R+T is:  (R * 2) + (S * .5) + (6 – Opp S) + T, where R is rebounding margin per game, S is steals per game, Opp S is opponents’ steals per game, and T is turnover margin (Opponents Turnovers minus Teams’  Turnovers divided by games played).

Another excellent formula that estimates extra scoring chances per game is the formula by the brilliant Jordan Sperber, creator of Hoop Vision.  Jordan’s formula is: (Team’s OEff)-((100.9/49.0)*(Team’s eFG%)),  where OEff is offensive efficiency, the number 100.9 represents the average Division 1 team’s offensive efficiency, the number 49.0 represents the average Division 1 team’s effective FG%, and eFG% is effective FG%.  The result represents the extra chances to utilize effective FG%, and like everything else Jordan does, it is a great tool.  By the way, Jordan has worked for my number one rated Mid-Major coach of last year (Eric Musselman), and my number one rated Mid-Major coach of this year (Chris Jans).  His analytics have helped both coaches strategize the way they coach.  Check out Jordan’s website at: https://hoopvision.substack.com

In column 2 above, you see TS%.  This stands for true shooting percentage, which in this case actually stands for the difference in the team’s offensive TS% and the defensive TS%.  To calculate TS%, the formula is: (100 * points scored) /  (2 * [FG Attempts + {.475 * FT Attempts}]) 

The final column represents strength of schedule.  50 is considered an average schedule strength.  55 is considered a strong schedule strength.  60 is considered a tough schedule strength.  Below 45 is considered too weak to consider a team a legitimate contender in the Big Dance.

Gonzaga has the top R+T rating in the nation at the present time.  Their TS% difference is in the top 10, so the Bulldogs should be considered a key contender to run the table in the NCAA Tournament this year, correct?  No, that is not correct.  Gonzaga’s strength of schedule (SOS) is too low.  At 49.0, the other two stats must be discounted.  Gonzaga’s remaining schedule will not give the Bulldogs enough increase in SOS to take their R+T and TS% stats seriously.  This does not mean they will lose to a 16-seed in the first game.  What it means is that when they get to the Sweet 16 and face an opponent with a better SOS and strong R+T and TS%, they will be ripe for the upset.

Baylor, Butler, Duke, Illinois, Kansas, Maryland, Michigan State, Rutgers, and West Virginia have the best resumes today.  They have excellent R+T, TS%, and SOS numbers.  It should be no surprise that the Big 12 and Big Ten are the two best conferences so far this season.  

Kentucky and LSU fall just short of the elites in this test.  Neither team has the important 55 or better SOS mark, although both teams could eventually get over that key number.

Among the mid-major teams to keep an eye on, there are four teams in the West that could be sleepers for the Sweet 16 if they make the dance.  UC-Irvine, New Mexico State, Southern Utah, and Utah State all have strong R+T and TS% numbers with SOS that isn’t totally weak.  Contrast that to Liberty and Stephen F. Austin, two teams where the schedule strength doesn’t cut it.

Then, there are two teams high in the rankings from the lower tier of major conferences.  Houston and San Diego State have excellent numbers, but their schedule strengths make them both on the outside looking in when compared to the power conference teams.  Frequently, teams like these two can make a run to the second weekend of the tournament, and once or twice a decade, they will sneak into the Final Four.  However, when it comes to cut the nets and hear “One Shining Moment,” the happy team is one that comes from one of the top 5 power conferences.

As of today, the top 5 power conferences are: The Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, Atlantic Coast, and Southeastern Conferences.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

January 19, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 19, 2020

Division 1 Basketball Games on Sunday

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Canisius

Rider

-0.8

Chicago State

Cal St. Bakersfield

-15.8

Cincinnati

East Carolina

16.9

Fordham

Davidson

-7.4

Illinois State

Loyola (Chi.)

-4.9

Maine

Binghamton

1.8

Marist

Iona

-4.5

Niagara

Siena

-2.2

North Dakota State

North Dakota

7.4

Rutgers

Minnesota

3.9

South Dakota

South Dakota State

-1.3

Southern Illinois

Drake

0.1

UCLA

California

6.5

UMKC

Grand Canyon

3.3

Wake Forest

Boston College

6.7

January 9, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 9, 2020

Power Conference Games & Top 25 Teams Playing Thursday

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Michigan

Purdue

5.1

Wichita St.

Memphis

2.5

Michigan St.

Minnesota

12.1

Oregon

Arizona

1.2

Stanford

Washington

1.7

California

Washington St.

-0.1

Oregon St.

Arizona St.

4.7

Saint Mary’s

BYU

2.3

 

Coming Tomorrow–Updated Ratings and Bracketology

January 2, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 2, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:45 am

Power Conference & Top 25 Teams Playing Thursday

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Purdue

Minnesota

5.7

Michigan St.

Illinois

11.2

La Salle

Dayton

-11.3

Utah

Oregon St.

-0.1

Colorado

Oregon

-0.7

Portland

Gonzaga

-22.3

Washington

UCLA

10.3

Washington St.

USC

-2.8

Stanford

California

11.2

San Francisco

Saint Mary’s

-3.5

 

Note 1–We have been asked to explain the spread and when it is positive or negative.  When the spread is positive, the home team is favored by the amount shown.  When the spread is negative, the visiting team is favored by the amount shown.

Note 2–While we basically just issue spreads for games involving opponents from the power conferences or teams in the top 25 of the rankings, our ratings are easily usable for all Division 1 teams and all Division 1 games.  Simply subtract the visiting team power rating from the home team, and add 2 to 6 points for home court advantage.  For a typical mid-major or low-major team, the home court advantage will be 2.5 to 3.5 points. 

For a typical power conference team, the home court advantage will be 3 to 5 points.  For a team with an incredible home court advantage like Gonzaga, Kentucky, and Kansas, use 5 to 6 points.  These numbers can fluctuate based on the opponent.  For instance, if Kansas State visits Kansas, the home court advantage is reduced, because the trip is not taxing to the Wildcats.  To the contrary, if a school like Vermont hosts a team from the West Coast, their regular 3.5 point advantage might be moved to 4.5 or even 5 points.

Updated Ratings will be published Friday around Noon in the Eastern Time Zone.

Also, a new Bracketology list will be published Friday afternoon.

December 9, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 15: December 12-16, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Margins

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Baltimore

N. Y. Jets

19.3

18.9

20.6

Detroit

Tampa Bay

1.2

-1.8

-2.0

Washington

Philadelphia

-6.6

-4.1

-4.0

Green Bay

Chicago

1.0

3.5

3.6

Cincinnati

New England

-12.2

-12.8

-11.9

Tennessee

Houston

4.0

4.3

4.7

Carolina

Seattle

-5.0

-5.0

-5.0

Kansas City

Denver

7.8

8.0

8.0

N. Y. Giants

Miami

5.7

5.5

5.8

Buffalo

Pittsburgh

5.3

5.7

5.2

Oakland

Jacksonville

4.1

4.0

4.3

Arizona

Cleveland

-3.9

-4.1

-3.6

San Francisco

Atlanta

13.7

14.5

15.3

Dallas

LA Rams

-1.5

-0.2

-1.2

LA Chargers

Minnesota

0.1

1.3

0.4

New Orleans

Indianapolis

11.2

8.3

9.2

 

Totals

Home

Visitor

Total

Baltimore

N. Y. Jets

45.5

Detroit

Tampa Bay

53.5

Washington

Philadelphia

42

Green Bay

Chicago

42.5

Cincinnati

New England

42

Tennessee

Houston

44.5

Carolina

Seattle

50

Kansas City

Denver

50

N. Y. Giants

Miami

52

Buffalo

Pittsburgh

37.5

Oakland

Jacksonville

43.5

Arizona

Cleveland

47

San Francisco

Atlanta

51.5

Dallas

LA Rams

47

LA Chargers

Minnesota

44

New Orleans

Indianapolis

50

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New England

107.8

108.4

107.8

108.0

19.5

10-3

Buffalo

101.8

102.8

102.8

102.5

17.5

9-4

N. Y. Jets

94.5

95.1

94.1

94.6

21

5-8

Miami

89.7

90.0

89.9

89.9

27.5

3-10

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Baltimore

111.3

111.4

112.2

111.7

24.5

11-2

Pittsburgh

99.5

100.1

100.6

100.0

20

8-5

Cleveland

99.2

99.5

99.5

99.4

23

6-7

Cincinnati

93.2

93.1

93.4

93.2

22.5

1-12

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Tennessee

102.5

103.0

103.1

102.9

20.5

8-5

Houston

101.5

101.7

101.4

101.6

24

8-5

Indianapolis

99.1

100.1

99.6

99.6

23.5

6-7

Jacksonville

90.7

90.7

90.5

90.6

18

4-9

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Kansas City

104.4

105.1

104.9

104.8

30.5

9-4

LA Chargers

104.1

104.0

103.4

103.8

22

5-8

Denver

99.7

100.1

99.9

99.9

19.5

5-8

Oakland

91.8

91.7

91.8

91.8

25.5

6-7

 

 

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Dallas

102.6

102.9

102.4

102.6

22

6-7

Philadelphia

101.0

99.4

99.0

99.8

24

6-7

N.Y. Giants

92.9

93.0

93.2

93.0

24.5

2-11

Washington

91.9

92.8

92.5

92.4

18

3-10

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Minnesota

106.5

105.2

105.4

105.7

22

9-4

Green Bay

101.7

101.8

102.0

101.8

24.5

10-3

Chicago

103.2

100.8

100.9

101.6

18

7-6

Detroit

97.3

95.8

95.9

96.4

23.5

3-9-1

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New Orleans

107.3

105.4

105.8

106.2

26.5

10-3

Tampa Bay

99.1

100.6

101.0

100.2

30

6-7

Atlanta

98.6

98.7

98.4

98.5

26

4-9

Carolina

95.2

95.0

95.2

95.1

26

5-8

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

San Francisco

109.3

110.2

110.7

110.1

25.5

11-2

LA Rams

106.6

105.6

106.1

106.1

25

8-5

Seattle

103.2

103.0

103.2

103.1

24

10-3

Arizona

92.8

92.9

93.4

93.0

24

3-9-1

 

The NFL Playoff Scenarios

There are numerous Playoff scenarios that can still greatly affect the remaining teams in the Playoff hunt.  After the end of Week 15, the scenarios will be easier to describe, and of course after Week 16, it will be cut and dry.  For now, here are the basics–just who wins in each scenario without going into explanations about which tiebreaker causes it.

 

Division Championships

 

AFC

If Buffalo wins at New England, and the teams finish tied for first, New England is AFC East Champs.

If Pittsburgh wins out and Baltimore loses out to finish tied at 11-5, Pittsburgh wins the AFC North Division.

If Houston and Tennessee finished tied at 10-6 or 9-7, Houston wins the AFC South Division.

Should Houston and Tennessee both finish 9-7, and Indianapolis wins their remaining three games to finish 9-7, Indianapolis would win the AFC South in a three-way tie.  Houston and Tennessee must split their two games and then lose the other game to both finish 9-7.

Kansas City has already clinched the AFC West Division.

 

NFC

If Dallas and Philadelphia finished tied at 8-8 or 7-9, Dallas wins the NFC East.

If Green Bay and Minnesota finish tied at 12-4 with Minnesota winning versus the Packers in Week 16, Green Bay wins the NFC North Division. If they both finish tied at 11-5, with Green Bay losing to either Chicago or Detroit plus Minnesota, then Minnesota wins the division.

If Chicago, Minnesota, and Green Bay finish in a three-way tie at 10-6, then Chicago wins the NFC North.

New Orleans has already clinched the NFC South.

If Seattle beats San Francisco in Week 17, and the two teams finish in a tie for first at 12-4, Seattle wins the NFC West Division. Seattle also wins a three-way tie with the 49ers and LA Rams for first at 11-5.

There is no scenario where the LA Rams can win the division, because if they win out to finish 11-5, then if San Francisco loses out to finish 11-5, that means Seattle will have had to win their Week 17 game with San Francisco to make then also 11-5, where they hold the tiebreaker.

Wildcards

 

AFC

The Wildcard tiebreaker would come into play with three non-division winners ending with 10-6 or 9-7 records.

At 10-6, Pittsburgh and Buffalo would earn the Wildcards, while Tennessee would be eliminated at 10-6. If the three teams were 9-7, then Pittsburgh and Tennessee would earn the Wildcards, while Buffalo would be eliminated.

If New England were to lose out finishing tied at 10-6 with Tennessee and Pittsburgh,  while Buffalo wins the AFC East, then The Patriots miss the Playoffs while the Titans and Steelers are the Wildcards.

NFC

There is only a minor chance that the San Francisco 49ers or Seattle Seahawks would miss the Playoffs altogether. The 49ers would have to lose all three remaining games to have a very remote chance of missing the Playoffs, and the Seahawks would have to finish behind the Rams in the standings while finishing tied with the Bears at 10-6 to miss the Playoffs. For the 49ers to miss the Playoffs at 10-6, Minnesota and Los Angeles would have to finish 11-5 and Green Bay would have to finish 12-4 or 13-3. For the sake of making this a lot easier, let’s put both Seattle and San Francisco in the Playoffs, one as division champion and one as a wildcard, since the chance for both teams making the Playoffs is better than 97%.

The final wildcard spot would be up for grabs between Minnesota, Los Angeles, and Chicago. Since the Bears can only improve to 10-6 by winning out, let’s show the tiebreakers at 10-6. If Minnesota, Chicago, and Los Angeles all finish 10-6, then the Rams make it a trio from the NFC West in the Playoffs. Los Angeles also wins a tiebreaker at 11-5 with Minnesota.

The Rams also win the tiebreaker with Green Bay if Minnesota wins the North, and the Packers and Rams both finish 10-6.

The Bears can earn the Wildcard if they win out to finish 10-6 and LA finishes 9-7 or 8-8, while either Minnesota or Green Bay also finishes 10-6.

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 14, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For November 14-18, 2019

Your 1962 New York Mets of Selections

The lovable 1962 New York Mets won 40 games in their initial season in Major League Baseball.  There were a couple of star players, and the rest of the roster belonged in the International League.  

That’s how our selections have fared this year.  A couple of times, we came up with some incredible wins on some long shot picks, but the rest of the time, our picks belonged in the bush leagues.

The good thing about the Mets was that eventually 1969 came, and they performed miracles in winning the World Series.  Of course, having player development that brought them Tom Seaver, Jerry Koosman, Nolan Ryan, Cleon Jones, Jerry Grote, and Bud Harrelson, as well as some nice acquisitions in Tommie Agee and Donn Clendenon, made their roster quite strong.  The PiRate Ratings have not developed any young talent in the last few weeks with hopes that a wagering week like 1969 will create a second miracle.

On the other hand, this has historically been the week that our ratings have enjoyed the most over the last 10 years.  The third week of November has brought us our highest return on imaginary investment (our picks are for entertainment purposes and never actually wagered on by us) of the season.

Three years ago, we hit on some outrageous parlays and outright picks against the spread, making a slight ROI on the year into a windfall profit margin.  Two years ago, we turned a slight deficit on the year into a nice profit that when combined with the bowl season gave us another year in the black.  Last year, we went from large deficit to almost break even after this week.

You can see the trend.  Every year, this week turned the momentum in our direction, but each year, this week reversed more malaise than the previous season.  In 2019, we find ourselves so deep in the whole that even the best ever finish on this week will still leave us well in the red.

So, remember, even though  this week has been rather successful for us in the past, please DO NOT WAGER your money on what you will read below.  If we have not faith in these picks, why should you?

Disclaimer: This does not apply to those handful of Smarts that somehow take our spreads and other data and make money off them somehow in Nevada and in the Caribbean.  How you do it, we do not know.  But, we do know that a group of Smarts uses our ratings and consistently beats the books.  

This week, we are going to issue a few less choices overall, but this is because we feel the heat on us.  This has been a winning week so many times for us that we spent an extra 10 minutes or so per selection looking them over.  We found a couple of special teasers that cross over the important spread numbers.  We isolated on some money line parlays that we feel strong about.

As for our experimental Davey19 system, the biggest difference in the line and its predicted score just so happened to pop up this week.  There is a reason for this.  The oddsmakers definitely consider psychological factors when making the line.  Davey19 has no personality.  Davey is a computer program with no emotion.  

What game are we talking about?  The Iowa-Minnesota game in Iowa City has the Gophers playing on the road in a tough environment coming off their monumental home win over Penn State.  The oddsmakers have Iowa favored in this game as a trap for Minnesota.  Davey19 strictly picks games when its experimental spread differs from the line by more than 3.5 points.  Davey19 says Minnesota is a touchdown better than Iowa at Kinnick Stadium.  That’s a full 10 points different.  Minnesota might indeed suffer a letdown, but 10 points of letdown is a lot.  And, the Gophers aren’t just playing a game following an upset win.  They have a lot more to play for now.  They have the Playoffs in their sites, and for now, every game is the biggest game in school history since Sandy Stephens, Roger Hagberg, and Bobby Bell played for the #3 Gophers against #1 Iowa in 1960.  Yes, this is the biggest game in Minnesota history since they played Iowas 59 years ago and basically secured the national championship with a convincing win over the #1 team.

Without further adieu, here are our picks for the week.

 

PiRate Picks

College Money Line Parlays

 

#1–3 Games at +142

Winner

Loser

Virginia Tech

Georgia Tech

Georgia Southern

UL-Monroe

Middle Tennessee

Rice

 

#2–3 Games at +148

Winner

Loser

Marshall

Louisiana Tech

Florida

Missouri

Kansas St.

West Virginia

 

#3–4 Games at +133

Winner

Loser

Michigan

Michigan St.

Kentucky

Vanderbilt

Duke

Syracuse

Texas A&M

South Carolina

 

#4–2 Games at +134

Winner

Loser

Notre Dame

Navy

Georgia

Auburn

 

#5–3 Games at +151

Winner

Loser

Memphis

Houston

Air Force

Colorado St.

Louisville

N. Carolina St.

 

NFL 10-Point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Minnesota

Denver

0.5

Minnesota

Oakland

Cincinnati

0.5

Oakland

Chicago

LA Rams

3.5

LA Rams

 

NFL 13-Point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Cleveland

Pittsburgh

16

Pittsburgh

Tampa Bay

New Orleans

7.5

New Orleans

Atlanta

Carolina

7.5

Carolina

Washington

N.Y. Jets

14.5

N.Y. Jets

 

Davey19

An Experimental College Football Selection System

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Fresno St.

San Diego St.

1

San Diego St.

Ball St.

Central Michigan

2.5

Ball St.

USC

California

6.5

USC

TCU

Texas Tech

3.5

Texas Tech

Southern Miss.

UTSA

17

UTSA

LSU

Ole Miss

21

Ole Miss

Iowa

Minnesota

3

Minnesota

 

 

 

November 7, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For November 7-11, 2019

Welcome to Thursday Comedy Relief.  It’s official now: this is the worst season in the 21st Century for PiRate Picks.  As we always tell you, these picks are free and maybe not worth what you pay for them.  In past years, we have had better access to information that has been unavailable to us, and so these picks are not going to be as reliable as when we were actually winning consistently.

We know that some of you reading this have discovered the little “secret” system in our regular weekly ratings that through super computer programming, you can come up with a half-dozen or so picks that are rewarding you with better than 62% wins.  It’s so secret, that we do not know the real particulars, and we unwisely recommended that you not tell us how you are doing it, because it might be too tempting to try it ourselves and then lose our mortgage payments (figuratively, since we burned our mortgage some time ago).

This is the absolute best week for college football to date.  This week’s games between Alabama and LSU, preceded by Minnesota and Penn State, and including Baylor-TCU, Iowa State-Oklahoma, and even including the best FCS game of the year and the celebration of the 150th anniversary of college football–undefeated Princeton versus undefeated Dartmouth at Yankee Stadium, we know that a lot of you love to add a little excitement when watching these top games.

Please, please, please, disregard our selections when considering whether or not you will wager on these games.  We are hitting 48% in our selections this year.  That’s total crappy status.  You cannot win at 48%, because even if you wager the exact opposite, at 52% you still lose.  None of your reading this feature are one of those folks with the supercomputer winning on 63+% of the wagers that our ratings somehow pop up 6-10 games per week, and our selections below are not part of that system.

 

This Week’s PiRate Picks

College Games

10-point Teasers

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Florida St.

Boston College

11

Boston College

Ohio St.

Maryland

32

Ohio St.

Michigan St.

Illinois

24.5

Illinois

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Florida

Vanderbilt

16.5

Florida

Ole Miss

N. Mexico St.

38.5

N. Mexico St.

Kentucky

Tennessee

11

Tennessee

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Georgia

Ole Miss

6.5

Georgia

Virginia

Georgia Tech

26

Georgia Tech

BYU

Liberty

27

Liberty

 

13-Point Teasers

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Texas Tech

West Virginia

15.5

West Virginia

Miami (Fla.)

Louisville

19.5

Louisville

Wake Forest

Virginia Tech

15.5

Virginia Tech

Penn St.

Minnesota

20

Minnesota

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Northwestern

Purdue

15.5

Purdue

Charlotte

UTEP

Pk

Charlotte

Baylor

TCU

10.5

TCU

Oklahoma

Iowa St.

1.5

Oklahoma

 

College Money Line Parlay –4 games at +268

 

Winner

Loser

Louisiana Tech

North Texas

Fresno St.

Utah St.

Notre Dame

Duke

Washington

Oregon St.

 

NFL Games

13-Point Teasers

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

LA Chargers

Oakland

14.5

Oakland

New Orleans

Atlanta

Pk

New Orleans

Cincinnati

Baltimore

3

Baltimore

Carolina

Green Bay

8

Green Bay

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Chicago

Detroit

15.5

Detroit

Miami

Indianapolis

2.5

Indianapolis

N.Y. Jets

N.Y. Giants

10.5

N.Y. Giants

Tampa Bay

Arizona

17.5

Arizona

 

Money Line Parlay –2 Games at +149

 

Winner

Loser

N.Y. Giants

N.Y. Jets

Green Bay

Carolina

 

 

Davey19 Experimental Picks

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Louisiana

Coastal Carolina

14.5

Coastal Carolina

Michigan St.

Illinois

15

Illinois

Boise St.

Wyoming

13.5

Wyoming

Alabama

LSU

5.5

Alabama

Troy

Georgia Southern

3

Georgia Southern

Kentucky

Tennessee

1

Tennessee

Louisiana Tech

North Texas

5

Louisiana Tech

 

 

November 3, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: November 3, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:46 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday

November 5

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Toledo

Kent St.

2.8

3.2

3.2

Western Michigan

Ball St.

10.9

10.5

10.8

 

 

Wednesday

November 6

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Ohio U

Miami (O)

7.4

7.8

7.5

 

 

Thursday

November 7

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Coastal Carolina

Louisiana

-11.7

-10.7

-12.1

South Florida

Temple

-3.9

-1.8

-4.3

 

 

Friday

November 8

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Oregon St.

Washington

-11.6

-10.2

-12.9

Tulsa

Central Florida

-18.6

-17.1

-18.3

 

 

Saturday

November 9

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Alabama

LSU

9.2

8.4

9.9

Arizona St.

USC

2.9

1.8

3.1

Arkansas

Western Kentucky

5.8

5.1

3.9

Army

Massachusetts

38.5

36.9

39.1

Boise St.

Wyoming

9.9

7.7

9.6

Boston College

Florida St.

2.6

2.4

3.0

BYU

Liberty

17.2

15.9

17.4

California

Washington St.

-7.1

-6.7

-7.3

Cincinnati

Connecticut

38.8

34.5

40.2

Colorado

Stanford

-5.5

-5.1

-5.6

Duke

Notre Dame

-7.7

-6.5

-7.3

Florida

Vanderbilt

28.5

26.9

29.3

Florida Atlantic

Florida Int’l.

9.4

9.5

10.9

Fresno St.

Utah St.

-1.0

0.9

-1.2

Georgia

Missouri

18.1

18.6

18.6

Hawaii

San Jose St.

12.0

11.5

11.1

Kentucky

Tennessee

2.2

1.0

2.0

Louisiana Tech

North Texas

6.4

7.1

6.2

Miami (Fla.)

Louisville

10.7

10.4

11.8

Michigan St.

Illinois

14.0

12.1

13.9

Minnesota

Penn St.

-3.9

-3.1

-4.5

New Mexico

Air Force

-21.4

-20.3

-23.4

North Carolina St.

Clemson

-35.7

-33.8

-36.9

Northwestern

Purdue

1.5

0.5

0.7

Ohio St.

Maryland

42.4

42.6

44.9

Oklahoma

Iowa St.

11.8

10.3

11.2

Old Dominion

UTSA

0.7

-1.1

0.9

Ole Miss

New Mexico St.

33.0

30.0

32.9

San Diego St.

Nevada

14.7

14.9

15.2

SMU

East Carolina

26.3

24.6

27.0

South Carolina

Appalachian St.

8.1

7.4

8.1

Southern Miss.

UAB

7.0

4.0

6.5

TCU

Baylor

-4.1

-1.7

-3.2

Texas

Kansas St.

0.7

1.0

0.6

Texas St.

South Alabama

9.8

7.8

9.8

Troy

Georgia Southern

-2.9

-2.1

-3.5

UL-Monroe

Georgia St.

-4.1

-5.0

-4.3

UTEP

Charlotte

-15.1

-11.5

-14.9

Virginia

Georgia Tech

15.8

17.6

15.9

Virginia Tech

Wake Forest

-1.5

-1.0

-1.5

West Virginia

Texas Tech

1.2

0.7

1.6

Wisconsin

Iowa

4.3

5.7

4.3

 

Special Game–150th Anniversary of College Football

Dartmouth and Princeton will play Saturday at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx at 3:30 PM EST.  The game is available on ESPNU, and both teams sport perfect 7-0 records in the FCS Division.  It will mark the 150th anniversary of college football.  Princeton (known then as the College of New Jersey until 1896) and Rutgers met for the first college game in November 6, 1869, and Rutgers won that game 6 goals to 4.

This might be the most important Ivy League game since 8-0-0 Harvard and 8-0-0 Yale battled to an unbelievable 29-29 tie to conclude the 1968 season.  Yale led 29-13 with less than a minute to play, and Harvard scored twice with successful two-point conversions to tie the game and claim part of the Ivy League Championship.

Dartmouth and Princeton have been the top two programs in recent Ivy League history.  Both teams have enjoyed some incredible seasons in the distant past as well.  The 1970 Darmouth team was the best in Ivy League history, as they won the Lambert Trophy for best overall team from the East and finished ranked in the top 20 in the nation after  finishing 9-0.  That Dartmouth team surrendered just 42 points all season, but they didn’t give up a point in their final four games.

Princeton was one of the final teams in major college football to use the old Single Wing offense.  The Tigers went 9-0 and won the Ivy League in 1964, but their 1950 and 1951 teams that went undefeated finished number six in the AP Poll, and star back Dick Kazmaier won the 1951 Heisman Trophy.

The Ivy League isn’t Division 1 any more, and the champion doesn’t even get to go to the FCS Playoffs, but this is still an incredible game worth watching if you have a second monitor to watch in addition to that other 3:30 PM game in Tuscaloosa, AL.

The PiRate Ratings do not rate FCS teams the same way as we rate FBS teams.  We can estimate a power rating based on a former PiRate Formula, which we used from 1980 to 1996.

The estimate for this game is: 

Dartmouth 19

Princeton 16

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Ohio St.

139.0

138.1

140.1

139.1

2

Clemson

135.3

133.0

136.3

134.9

3

Alabama

135.6

132.5

136.3

134.8

4

L S U

129.4

127.1

129.3

128.6

5

Georgia

126.7

124.8

126.7

126.1

6

Penn St.

124.9

124.1

125.2

124.8

7

Utah

123.7

122.6

124.5

123.6

8

Oklahoma

123.5

122.7

123.2

123.1

9

Michigan

123.0

121.6

123.3

122.6

10

Auburn

122.5

120.8

122.3

121.9

11

Oregon

121.2

121.3

122.5

121.7

12

Florida

122.8

119.9

122.3

121.6

13

Wisconsin

120.4

120.0

120.3

120.2

14

Iowa

119.1

117.3

119.0

118.4

15

Minnesota

118.1

117.9

117.8

117.9

16

Notre Dame

116.4

114.7

116.0

115.7

17

Texas A&M

116.2

114.6

115.1

115.3

18

Iowa St.

114.8

115.4

115.0

115.1

19

Washington

114.3

114.0

115.3

114.5

20

Central Florida

113.5

112.8

114.2

113.5

21

Baylor

113.5

113.5

112.8

113.3

22

Washington St.

113.0

112.2

113.5

112.9

23

Kansas St.

112.3

112.2

112.3

112.3

24

Michigan St.

112.7

111.8

112.2

112.2

25

Mississippi St.

110.8

107.5

114.7

111.0

26

South Carolina

111.7

110.0

111.1

110.9

27

Missouri

111.6

109.2

111.1

110.6

28

Indiana

110.6

109.6

110.3

110.2

29

Oklahoma St.

110.0

110.7

109.7

110.1

30

Texas

109.9

110.2

109.9

110.0

31

Tennessee

109.5

109.3

108.6

109.1

32

T C U

107.3

109.8

107.6

108.2

33

Kentucky

108.7

107.3

107.6

107.9

34

Virginia

107.7

107.8

107.9

107.8

35

U S C

107.3

107.8

107.6

107.6

36

Miami (Fla.)

107.2

106.8

108.3

107.4

37

Arizona St.

107.2

106.5

107.7

107.2

38

Cincinnati

107.0

106.0

107.4

106.8

39

Wake Forest

106.5

106.0

107.0

106.5

40

SMU

106.2

105.9

107.1

106.4

41

Memphis

105.9

105.9

106.7

106.2

42

Appalachian St.

106.6

105.6

106.0

106.1

43

Ole Miss

106.4

105.4

106.3

106.0

44

Boise St.

106.0

105.9

106.1

106.0

45

Pittsburgh

105.7

105.3

106.0

105.7

46

North Carolina

105.4

105.2

106.1

105.6

47

Duke

105.7

105.1

105.6

105.5

48

Air Force

103.7

105.0

104.5

104.4

49

Texas Tech

104.4

104.6

103.5

104.2

50

Stanford

104.0

103.3

103.7

103.7

51

Florida St.

103.6

103.5

103.6

103.6

52

Purdue

103.6

103.4

102.9

103.3

53

BYU

103.2

103.2

103.4

103.3

54

Boston College

103.2

102.9

103.6

103.2

55

Nebraska

103.1

103.6

102.3

103.0

56

California

102.8

102.4

103.3

102.8

57

West Virginia

102.7

102.3

102.1

102.3

58

Virginia Tech

102.0

102.0

102.5

102.2

59

Illinois

101.7

102.6

101.3

101.9

60

Northwestern

102.5

101.4

101.2

101.7

61

U C L A

101.7

101.6

101.5

101.6

62

Louisiana

101.3

101.6

101.4

101.4

63

Tulane

99.7

100.5

100.2

100.1

64

Oregon St.

99.8

100.8

99.5

100.0

65

Wyoming

99.0

101.2

99.6

99.9

66

Louisville

99.6

99.4

99.5

99.5

67

Navy

97.9

100.5

98.9

99.1

68

Utah St.

99.2

98.4

99.8

99.1

69

Maryland

99.6

98.5

98.2

98.8

70

Western Michigan

98.8

97.9

98.7

98.5

71

San Diego St.

97.9

99.6

97.7

98.4

72

Temple

98.3

97.5

99.1

98.3

73

Syracuse

98.5

97.7

97.8

98.0

74

Houston

97.0

97.9

99.1

98.0

75

Georgia Southern

96.9

96.7

96.4

96.7

76

Arizona

96.7

96.5

96.2

96.5

77

North Carolina St.

96.6

96.2

96.5

96.4

78

Vanderbilt

97.3

96.0

96.0

96.4

79

Florida Atlantic

95.6

95.5

96.9

96.0

80

Kansas

95.5

96.5

95.4

95.8

81

Fresno St.

95.2

96.2

95.6

95.7

82

Hawaii

95.2

96.6

94.3

95.4

83

Colorado

95.5

95.2

95.1

95.2

84

Georgia Tech

94.8

93.2

95.0

94.3

85

Ohio

94.4

93.5

94.9

94.3

86

Southern Miss.

94.6

93.3

94.8

94.2

87

Louisiana Tech

94.0

94.4

94.3

94.2

88

Army

94.1

94.2

93.4

93.9

89

Buffalo

92.9

93.6

94.4

93.6

90

Georgia St.

92.5

93.8

92.2

92.8

91

Tulsa

91.8

92.7

92.9

92.5

92

Arkansas

92.2

92.2

91.6

92.0

93

South Florida

91.4

92.6

91.8

91.9

94

Troy

91.6

92.1

90.5

91.4

95

Arkansas St.

91.3

91.6

91.2

91.4

96

Marshall

90.8

90.4

91.6

90.9

97

U A B

90.1

91.8

90.7

90.9

98

North Texas

90.6

90.2

91.1

90.6

99

Ball St.

90.4

89.9

90.4

90.2

100

Western Kentucky

89.4

90.2

90.8

90.1

101

Liberty

89.5

90.8

89.6

89.9

102

Middle Tennessee

89.8

89.0

89.9

89.6

103

Northern Illinois

89.5

88.7

89.6

89.3

104

Miami (Ohio)

89.5

88.2

89.9

89.2

105

Toledo

88.4

88.7

89.1

88.7

106

Central Michigan

88.2

88.8

89.1

88.7

107

Colorado St.

87.1

90.7

87.7

88.5

108

San Jose St.

87.7

89.5

87.7

88.3

109

Kent St.

87.6

87.4

87.9

87.6

110

Florida Int’l.

87.7

87.5

87.5

87.6

111

Coastal Carolina

87.2

88.4

86.8

87.5

112

Nevada

86.2

87.7

85.5

86.5

113

Charlotte

86.1

86.4

86.5

86.3

114

Louisiana-Monroe

85.8

86.4

85.4

85.9

115

Eastern Michigan

84.2

84.3

84.5

84.4

116

Rutgers

84.1

83.8

82.9

83.6

117

U N L V

83.1

84.7

82.7

83.5

118

East Carolina

82.9

84.3

83.1

83.4

119

Texas St.

81.8

82.3

81.0

81.7

120

New Mexico

79.8

82.2

78.5

80.2

121

Rice

79.5

80.4

78.7

79.6

122

New Mexico St.

76.4

78.5

76.4

77.1

123

Texas-San Antonio

75.6

77.7

75.5

76.2

124

South Alabama

74.5

77.0

73.7

75.1

125

Bowling Green

74.1

73.9

74.1

74.1

126

Old Dominion

73.8

74.0

73.9

73.9

127

Connecticut

71.2

74.5

70.2

72.0

128

U T E P

68.5

72.5

69.1

70.0

129

Akron

66.9

66.7

65.6

66.4

130

Massachusetts

58.6

60.3

57.3

58.7

 

PiRate Ratings For Conference

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

113.5

112.8

114.2

113.5

4-1

7-2

Cincinnati

107.0

106.0

107.4

106.8

4-0

7-1

Temple

98.3

97.5

99.1

98.3

2-2

5-3

South Florida

91.4

92.6

91.8

91.9

2-2

4-4

East Carolina

82.9

84.3

83.1

83.4

0-5

3-6

Connecticut

71.2

74.5

70.2

72.0

0-5

2-7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

SMU

106.2

105.9

107.1

106.4

4-1

8-1

Memphis

105.9

105.9

106.7

106.2

4-1

8-1

Tulane

99.7

100.5

100.2

100.1

3-2

6-3

Navy

97.9

100.5

98.9

99.1

5-1

7-1

Houston

97.0

97.9

99.1

98.0

1-4

3-6

Tulsa

91.8

92.7

92.9

92.5

0-5

2-7

AAC Averages

96.9

97.6

97.6

97.3

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

135.3

133.0

136.3

134.9

6-0

9-0

Wake Forest

106.5

106.0

107.0

106.5

3-1

7-1

Florida St.

103.6

103.5

103.6

103.6

3-4

4-5

Boston College

103.2

102.9

103.6

103.2

3-3

5-4

Louisville

99.6

99.4

99.5

99.5

3-2

5-3

Syracuse

98.5

97.7

97.8

98.0

0-5

3-6

North Carolina St.

96.6

96.2

96.5

96.4

1-3

4-4

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Virginia

107.7

107.8

107.9

107.8

4-2

6-3

Miami (Fla.)

107.2

106.8

108.3

107.4

3-3

5-4

Pittsburgh

105.7

105.3

106.0

105.7

3-2

6-3

North Carolina

105.4

105.2

106.1

105.6

3-3

4-5

Duke

105.7

105.1

105.6

105.5

2-3

4-4

Virginia Tech

102.0

102.0

102.5

102.2

3-2

5-3

Georgia Tech

94.8

93.2

95.0

94.3

1-4

2-6

ACC Averages

105.1

104.6

105.4

105.0

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

123.5

122.7

123.2

123.1

4-1

7-1

Iowa St.

114.8

115.4

115.0

115.1

3-2

5-3

Baylor

113.5

113.5

112.8

113.3

5-0

8-0

Kansas St.

112.3

112.2

112.3

112.3

3-2

6-2

Oklahoma St.

110.0

110.7

109.7

110.1

3-3

6-3

Texas

109.9

110.2

109.9

110.0

3-2

5-3

T C U

107.3

109.8

107.6

108.2

2-3

4-4

Texas Tech

104.4

104.6

103.5

104.2

1-4

3-5

West Virginia

102.7

102.3

102.1

102.3

1-4

3-5

Kansas

95.5

96.5

95.4

95.8

1-5

3-6

Big 12 Averages

109.4

109.8

109.1

109.4

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

139.0

138.1

140.1

139.1

5-0

8-0

Penn St.

124.9

124.1

125.2

124.8

5-0

8-0

Michigan

123.0

121.6

123.3

122.6

4-2

7-2

Michigan St.

112.7

111.8

112.2

112.2

2-3

4-4

Indiana

110.6

109.6

110.3

110.2

4-2

7-2

Maryland

99.6

98.5

98.2

98.8

1-5

3-6

Rutgers

84.1

83.8

82.9

83.6

0-6

2-7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

120.4

120.0

120.3

120.2

3-2

6-2

Iowa

119.1

117.3

119.0

118.4

3-2

6-2

Minnesota

118.1

117.9

117.8

117.9

5-0

8-0

Purdue

103.6

103.4

102.9

103.3

2-4

3-6

Nebraska

103.1

103.6

102.3

103.0

2-4

4-5

Illinois

101.7

102.6

101.3

101.9

3-3

5-4

Northwestern

102.5

101.4

101.2

101.7

0-6

1-7

Big Ten Averages

111.6

111.0

111.2

111.3

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Florida Atlantic

95.6

95.5

96.9

96.0

4-1

6-3

Marshall

90.8

90.4

91.6

90.9

4-1

6-3

Western Kentucky

89.4

90.2

90.8

90.1

4-2

5-4

Middle Tennessee

89.8

89.0

89.9

89.6

2-3

3-6

Florida Int’l.

87.7

87.5

87.5

87.6

3-3

5-4

Charlotte

86.1

86.4

86.5

86.3

2-3

4-5

Old Dominion

73.8

74.0

73.9

73.9

0-5

1-8

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Southern Miss.

94.6

93.3

94.8

94.2

3-1

5-3

Louisiana Tech

94.0

94.4

94.3

94.2

4-0

7-1

U A B

90.1

91.8

90.7

90.9

3-1

6-2

North Texas

90.6

90.2

91.1

90.6

3-2

4-5

Rice

79.5

80.4

78.7

79.6

0-5

0-9

Texas-San Antonio

75.6

77.7

75.5

76.2

2-2

3-5

U T E P

68.5

72.5

69.1

70.0

0-5

1-7

CUSA Averages

86.1

86.7

86.5

86.4

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

116.4

114.7

116.0

115.7

x

6-2

BYU

103.2

103.2

103.4

103.3

x

4-4

Army

94.1

94.2

93.4

93.9

x

3-6

Liberty

89.5

90.8

89.6

89.9

x

6-3

New Mexico St.

76.4

78.5

76.4

77.1

x

0-8

Massachusetts

58.6

60.3

57.3

58.7

x

1-8

Indep. Averages

89.7

90.3

89.3

89.8

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Ohio

94.4

93.5

94.9

94.3

3-1

4-4

Buffalo

92.9

93.6

94.4

93.6

3-2

5-4

Miami (Ohio)

89.5

88.2

89.9

89.2

3-1

4-4

Kent St.

87.6

87.4

87.9

87.6

2-2

3-5

Bowling Green

74.1

73.9

74.1

74.1

2-3

3-6

Akron

66.9

66.7

65.6

66.4

0-5

0-9

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

98.8

97.9

98.7

98.5

3-2

5-4

Ball St.

90.4

89.9

90.4

90.2

3-1

4-4

Northern Illinois

89.5

88.7

89.6

89.3

2-3

3-6

Toledo

88.4

88.7

89.1

88.7

2-2

5-3

Central Michigan

88.2

88.8

89.1

88.7

4-2

6-4

Eastern Michigan

84.2

84.3

84.5

84.4

1-4

4-5

MAC Averages

87.1

86.8

87.4

87.1

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Boise St.

106.0

105.9

106.1

106.0

4-0

7-1

Air Force

103.7

105.0

104.5

104.4

4-1

7-2

Wyoming

99.0

101.2

99.6

99.9

3-1

6-2

Utah St.

99.2

98.4

99.8

99.1

3-1

4-4

Colorado St.

87.1

90.7

87.7

88.5

3-2

4-5

New Mexico

79.8

82.2

78.5

80.2

0-5

2-7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

San Diego St.

97.9

99.6

97.7

98.4

4-1

7-1

Fresno St.

95.2

96.2

95.6

95.7

2-2

4-4

Hawaii

95.2

96.6

94.3

95.4

2-3

5-4

San Jose St.

87.7

89.5

87.7

88.3

1-4

4-5

Nevada

86.2

87.7

85.5

86.5

2-3

5-4

U N L V

83.1

84.7

82.7

83.5

1-5

2-7

MWC Averages

93.3

94.8

93.3

93.8

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

121.2

121.3

122.5

121.7

6-0

8-1

Washington

114.3

114.0

115.3

114.5

2-4

5-4

Washington St.

113.0

112.2

113.5

112.9

1-4

4-4

Stanford

104.0

103.3

103.7

103.7

3-3

4-4

California

102.8

102.4

103.3

102.8

1-4

4-4

Oregon St.

99.8

100.8

99.5

100.0

3-2

4-4

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

123.7

122.6

124.5

123.6

5-1

8-1

U S C

107.3

107.8

107.6

107.6

4-2

5-4

Arizona St.

107.2

106.5

107.7

107.2

2-3

5-3

U C L A

101.7

101.6

101.5

101.6

4-2

4-5

Arizona

96.7

96.5

96.2

96.5

2-4

4-5

Colorado

95.5

95.2

95.1

95.2

1-5

3-6

Pac-12 Averages

107.3

107.0

107.5

107.3

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

126.7

124.8

126.7

126.1

4-1

7-1

Florida

122.8

119.9

122.3

121.6

5-2

7-2

South Carolina

111.7

110.0

111.1

110.9

3-4

4-5

Missouri

111.6

109.2

111.1

110.6

2-2

5-3

Tennessee

109.5

109.3

108.6

109.1

2-3

4-5

Kentucky

108.7

107.3

107.6

107.9

2-4

4-4

Vanderbilt

97.3

96.0

96.0

96.4

1-4

2-6

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Alabama

135.6

132.5

136.3

134.8

5-0

8-0

L S U

129.4

127.1

129.3

128.6

4-0

8-0

Auburn

122.5

120.8

122.3

121.9

4-2

7-2

Texas A&M

116.2

114.6

115.1

115.3

3-2

6-3

Mississippi St.

110.8

107.5

114.7

111.0

2-4

4-5

Ole Miss

106.4

105.4

106.3

106.0

2-4

3-6

Arkansas

92.2

92.2

91.6

92.0

0-6

2-7

SEC Averages

114.4

112.6

114.2

113.7

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

106.6

105.6

106.0

106.1

4-1

7-1

Georgia Southern

96.9

96.7

96.4

96.7

3-1

5-3

Georgia St.

92.5

93.8

92.2

92.8

3-1

6-2

Troy

91.6

92.1

90.5

91.4

1-3

3-5

Coastal Carolina

87.2

88.4

86.8

87.5

1-3

4-4

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

101.3

101.6

101.4

101.4

3-1

6-2

Arkansas St.

91.3

91.6

91.2

91.4

3-2

5-4

Louisiana-Monroe

85.8

86.4

85.4

85.9

2-2

3-5

Texas St.

81.8

82.3

81.0

81.7

1-3

2-6

South Alabama

74.5

77.0

73.7

75.1

0-4

1-7

SBC Averages

91.0

91.6

90.5

91.0

 

Rating The Conferences

#

League

Average

1

Southeastern

113.7

2

Big Ten

111.3

3

Big 12

109.4

4

Pac-12

107.3

5

Atlantic Coast

105.0

6

American

97.3

7

Mountain West

93.8

8

Sun Belt

91.0

9

Independents

89.8

10

Mid-American

87.1

11

Conference USA

86.4

 

PiRate Rating Guess On Initial Top 4

Prediction on Selection Committee Choices on Tuesday

1

LSU

2

Ohio St.

3

Alabama

4

Penn St.

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1

Memphis

2

Cincinnati

3

Boise St.

4

Navy

5

SMU

Playoffs and Bowl Projections

 

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Buffalo

Marshall

Frisco

AAC

At-large

SMU

[Boise St.]

Cure

AAC

SBC

[Liberty]

Arkansas St.

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

UAB

Hawaii

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Tulane

Ohio

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Central Michigan

Georgia St.

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

San Diego St.

Oregon St.

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

Louisiana Tech

Louisiana

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Cincinnati

Florida Atlantic

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC

BYU

Navy

Independence

ACC

SEC

Miami (Fla.)

[Southern Miss.]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

North Carolina

Michigan St.

Military

ACC

AAC

Boston College

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

Virginia

Michigan

Texas

Big 12

SEC

Texas

Texas A&M

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

USC

Iowa

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

Iowa St.

Arizona St.

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Notre Dame

Oklahoma St.

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Memphis

Baylor

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

Western Kentucky

[Fresno St.]

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington

Illinois

Music City

SEC

ACC

[Ball St.]

Pittsburgh

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Wake Forest

Florida

Belk

ACC

SEC

Virginia Tech

Mississippi St.

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

Louisville

Washington St.

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

TCU

[Stanford]

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Appalachian St.

Air Force

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Kansas St.

Utah

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Auburn

Wisconsin

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Penn St.

Tennessee

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Minnesota

Oregon

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Oklahoma

Georgia

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Central Florida

[Duke]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Kentucky

Indiana

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Toledo

Utah St.

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

Nebraska

Wyoming

Dollar General

MAC

SBC

Western Michigan

Georgia Southern

 

 

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

Ohio St.

Clemson

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Alabama

LSU

 

 

Championship

Fiesta

Peach

Ohio St.

Alabama

 

 

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

This Is The Weekend

We don’t really need to say anything.  If you are reading this publication, you already know how incredible this weekend will be in college football.  On a typical November 9 in prior years, the incredible Princeton-Dartmouth game at Yankee Stadium might be the marquee game of the weekend.  Unfortunately, it starts at the same time as the biggie at Bryant-Denny.  Let’s take a brief look at the games that may make you want to stay home on Saturday, throw some logs on the fireplace, enjoy your favorite snacks and beverages, and watch two to three games at the same time.

 

12 Noon EST

 

 

Penn St. (8-0) at Minnesota (8-0)–ABC

The winner stays in the hunt for a Playoff spot, while the loser probably falls out of the Rose Bowl race.  Minnesota hasn’t played in a November game that had this type of importance since they played at Purdue in November of 1967 with a Rose Bowl bid on the line.  Purdue clobbered the Gophers that day, and even though Minnesota beat undefeated Indiana the following week, when the season ended in a three-way tie for first, Indiana received the Rose Bowl bid because Minnesota and Purdue had been in the Rose Bowl more recently (It was the Hoosiers’ only Rose Bowl invitation).

Penn State has been in the Rose Bowl more recently, but the Nittany Lions would consider a trip to Pasadena this year to be a failure.  James Franklin has his team in line for the Playoffs if they could upset Ohio State on the November 23 and then win the Big Ten Championship.  Of course, the same holds true for the Gophers.  Wins over Penn State, Iowa, Wisconsin, and then Ohio State would definitely put Minnesota in the Playoffs.  Consider this game the equivalent of a Sweet 16 game in the NCAA Basketball Tournament.

 

Baylor (8-0) at TCU (4-4)–FS1

This is a 100% definite trap game for the undefeated Bears.  Baylor hosts Oklahoma on November 16, and no matter how hard Coach Matt Rhule tries to convince his squad that TCU is good enough to beat them, the players are already counting down the days until the Sooners come to Waco.

TCU is on the verge of having to worry about where two more victories will come, so bowl eligibility is not yet a given in Forth Worth.  The Horned Frogs have to win two of their final four and have games at Texas Tech and Oklahoma, as well as a home finale with West Virginia.  They will be underdogs in three of their final four and must upset somebody to get to a bowl.

 

 

3:30 PM EST

 

LSU (8-0) at Alabama (8-0)–CBS

The knock against LSU in recent years was that the Tigers were too conservative on the offensive attack, and defense and running couldn’t beat Alabama and other behemoths.  This year, LSU’s offense can light it up against anybody, including Alabama’s defense.

The rub is that with the increased offensive efficiency and quick scoring passing attack, the Tigers’ defense has been forced to play up to 20 additional snaps per game, and opponents are finding ways to move the ball on the former tough defense.

All that’s changed is that LSU wins games 42-27 instead of 27-12.  A 15-point victory is a 15-point victory.  In the SEC, talent at each of the two-deep offenses and defenses just mean more than whether a team can pass the ball for 300 yards and score 30 points or hold the opponents to 250 total yards and 14 points.

Alabama still has the superior overall talent in the two-deeps on both sides of the ball.  In the past, Alabama might have won this game 24-14.  We believe they will continue to dominate this series and win it 45-35.  A 10-point superior team is still 10 points better than the other team.

 

Dartmouth (7-0) vs. Princeton (7-0) @ Yankee Stadium in the Bronx–ESPNU

This is the 150th Anniversary of College Football, so it is worth tuning in to watch when and if the big game is not as exciting.  It isn’t the original Yankee Stadium, but Yankee Stadium has been the site of many great college football games including the incredible Army-Notre Dame game of 1946, which ended 0-0.

 

Kansas St. (6-2) at Texas (5-3)–ESPN

Both teams are 3-2 in the Big 12, and they are still mathematically in the race for the number two spot in the Conference Championship Game.  Kansas State holds the tiebreaker over Oklahoma, so if the Wildcats can win out, and Oklahoma loses to Baylor or Oklahoma State, the Wildcats will play for a chance to go to the Sugar Bowl.

This has been a down year for Texas, and the Longhorns could be falling far enough to be placed in a bowl game in Houston against those Aggies.  The Texas Bowl would love that, but the Longhorns wouldn’t.

 

Illinois (5-4) at Michigan St. (4-4)–FS1

Why do we consider this game so important?  Illinois was given up for dead in early October, as the Illini appeared to be headed to a 6th or 7th place finish in the Big Ten West, and Coach Lovie Smith was probably on the way out.  Illinois had defeated Akron and Connecticut, two of the bottom 10 teams in the nation, and they had lost to Eastern Michigan.  At 2-4, Illinois then upset Wisconsin and followed that up with an impressive win at Purdue and a four-touchdown trouncing of Rutgers.  The Illini need one more victory to go bowling.  They are likely to get it against Northwestern to close out the season, but if Illinois can win at Michigan State, they will move up a couple of places in the bowl pecking order.

Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio is going to have to learn how to change or else he could be on his way toward retirement.  Dantonio is one of the lone holdovers to horse and buggy football.  Michigan State plays like it is still 1975, and the team that rushes for 200 yards and holds the other to less than 100 yards is going to win with relative ease.  That’s not how teams win these days.  If Sparty loses this game, there is a better than 50-50 chance that they will not get six wins or go to a bowl.  Even if they win this game, they may only be able to garner the lowly Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit.

 

Louisville (5-3) at Miami (Fla.) (5-4)–FS1

Louisville coach Scott Satterfield should receive some votes for ACC Coach of the Year, as the Cardinals were picked to finish last in the Atlantic Division, and they are most likely going to be bowl eligible.

Miami still has a small chance to win the Coastal Division, but a lot of things have to happen to make that a reality.  First and foremost is that the Hurricanes win their last three games.

The winner of this game becomes bowl eligible, and you should get the best from both teams, which will make this exciting enough to put an auxiliary monitor on this game.

 

4:00 PM EST

 

 

Iowa (6-2) at Wisconsin (6-2)–Fox

Minnesota has not clinched the West Division in the Big Ten, so the winner of this game remains in contention for the flag, since both must still play the Gophers.  If Penn State wins the 12:00 game, then whoever wins this one will get a chance to play Minnesota for first place later in November.

Expect a hard-fought, defensive struggle in this one, and the weather is expected to be cold and windy.  If you like the old blood and guts games of the 1950’s (yes, we know we have some gray-haired readers), then this is the game for you.  It could be one of those 12-10 games.

 

 

7:30 PM EST

 

 

Tennessee (4-5) at Kentucky (4-4)–SEC Network

How about a career saving resurrection?  Tennessee head coach Jeremy Pruitt was one step out the door in Knoxville a month ago.  At 1-4 with losses at home to Georgia State and BYU, the Vols looked like a potentially 2-10 or possible 1-11 team.

Tennessee was reborn after a blowout loss to Georgia.  Wins over Mississippi State, South Carolina, and UAB, and a loss to Alabama that was still in doubt into the fourth quarter has the Vols on the verge of becoming bowl eligible.

Kentucky began the season strong enough to contend for a New Year’s 6 Bowl.  Losing quarterback Terry Wilson probably cost the Wildcats two, possibly three wins to date, and Kentucky’s defense is not strong enough to hold Tennessee below 20 points in Lexington.  Can the Wildcats find some offense that they have not been able to find without Wilson under center?  A loss here will put the K-Cats under .500, but with Vanderbilt and UT-Martin following this game, the blue and white can still get to 6-6.

 

8:00 PM EST

 

 

Iowa State (5-3) at Oklahoma (7-1)–Fox

The last time Iowa State came to Norman, the Cyclones pulled off a major upset.  If they want to make the Big 12 Championship Game, they will have to do it again.  Of course, Oklahoma is coming off a bye week following their upset loss to Kansas State, so the Sooners are likely to play their best game of the season.

The question is, can Oklahoma’s defense stop Iowa State’s offense, and can the Sooners score at least 38 points in this game?

There’s another little issue in this game.  Oklahoma has a date at Baylor next week.  Even coming off a loss and a bye week, some of the Sooners may have a hard time thinking about Iowa State with the undefeated Bears coming up next week.  This should be an exciting game, especially under the lights at Owen Field.

 

 

10:15 PM EST

 

 

Wyoming (6-2) at Boise St. (7-1)–ESPN

Boise State has been a bit off in October and November.  The Broncos are not likely to earn the Group of 5 bid to a NY6 bowl, and they are now playing for their lives in the Mountain Division of the Mountain West.

Wyoming is a no-nonsense hard-hitting team that can wear teams down in the second half.  The Cowboys have enough talent to go to the Field of Blue and move into first place in the division.  If you are a night owl and stay up late on Saturday night watching games from the Rockies and West Coast, this is definitely one you should plan to watch.  Wyoming is coming into this game looking like they are sitting on their best production in the next few weeks.  We have this sneaky suspicion that the Cowboys will be in the lead in the fourth quarter in this game.

 

 

10:30 PM EST

 

 

Nevada (5-4) at San Diego St. (7-1)–ESPN2

San Diego State is in first place in the West Division of the Mountain West, but the Aztecs must play Nevada, Fresno State, and Hawaii in successive weeks, so even though Nevada is just 2-3 in conference play, the Wolf Pack are still alive in the division race.  This should be a relatively close game, and it could be decided on a late turnover or big play.  If you can stay up until 1:45 on the East Coast, you may be rewarded with some excitement to end your college football fix.

October 27, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: October 28, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:25 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Thursday

October 31

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Appalachian St.

Georgia Southern

16.9

16.3

17.3

Baylor

West Virginia

14.9

15.7

15.4

 

 

Friday

November 1

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Connecticut

Navy

-20.7

-19.8

-22.6

 

 

Saturday

November 2

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Wake Forest

North Carolina St.

6.2

5.9

6.4

Massachusetts

Liberty

-24.7

-23.9

-26.1

Florida Int’l.

Old Dominion

17.4

16.9

17.3

Coastal Carolina

Troy

-2.6

-2.1

-2.3

Georgia Tech

Pittsburgh

-7.6

-9.1

-7.4

Purdue

Nebraska

3.5

2.6

3.7

Central Florida

Houston

19.9

18.3

18.7

Maryland

Michigan

-17.1

-16.4

-18.7

Indiana

Northwestern

7.1

7.1

8.0

Bowling Green

Akron

5.9

5.7

7.0

Illinois

Rutgers

19.3

20.6

19.8

East Carolina

Cincinnati

-24.6

-21.8

-25.2

Syracuse

Boston College

6.6

6.3

5.7

Eastern Michigan

Buffalo

-0.6

-1.1

-1.5

North Carolina

Virginia

1.8

1.6

2.8

Utah St.

BYU

4.4

3.6

5.2

Notre Dame

Virginia Tech

19.2

17.4

18.5

USC

Oregon

-5.7

-5.2

-6.6

UCLA

Colorado

7.9

7.8

7.6

Kansas

Kansas St.

-12.0

-10.9

-11.7

Louisiana

Texas St.

22.1

21.5

22.6

South Carolina

Vanderbilt

17.4

16.9

18.1

Central Michigan

Northern Illinois

-7.2

-5.5

-6.5

Rice

Marshall

-8.4

-6.7

-10.0

Colorado St.

UNLV

4.3

6.5

5.1

Memphis

SMU

2.0

2.1

1.3

Texas A&M

UTSA

44.8

40.6

43.9

Air Force

Army

13.5

14.9

15.5

Arizona

Oregon St.

4.3

3.1

4.6

Tennessee

UAB

22.4

20.0

20.2

Auburn

Ole Miss

21.3

20.4

21.5

Florida (n)

Georgia

-3.5

-4.5

-3.8

Oklahoma St.

TCU

5.7

3.5

4.7

North Texas

UTEP

24.4

19.5

23.9

Tulane

Tulsa

10.9

10.8

10.1

Arkansas

Mississippi St.

-11.2

-7.3

-15.8

Charlotte

Middle Tennessee

-5.2

-4.0

-5.2

Western Kentucky

Florida Atlantic

-1.5

-0.3

-0.8

UL-Monroe

Arkansas St.

-2.6

-2.1

-2.4

Florida St.

Miami (Fla.)

2.1

2.9

1.5

Nevada

New Mexico

8.7

7.4

8.8

Washington

Utah

-6.3

-5.7

-6.2

San Jose St.

Boise St.

-16.1

-13.8

-16.7

Hawaii

Fresno St.

5.4

6.0

4.3

 

 

FBS vs.

FCS

Clemson

Wofford

48

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Ohio St.

138.7

137.8

139.8

138.8

2

Clemson

135.0

132.7

136.0

134.6

3

Alabama

135.3

132.2

136.0

134.5

4

L S U

129.1

126.8

129.0

128.3

5

Georgia

126.5

124.6

126.4

125.8

6

Penn St.

124.6

123.8

124.9

124.5

7

Utah

123.7

122.6

124.5

123.6

8

Auburn

123.7

122.0

123.7

123.1

9

Oklahoma

123.2

122.4

122.9

122.8

10

Florida

123.0

120.1

122.6

121.9

11

Michigan

121.5

119.9

121.8

121.1

12

Wisconsin

120.1

119.7

120.0

119.9

13

Oregon

118.4

118.4

119.6

118.8

14

Iowa

118.8

117.0

118.7

118.1

15

Minnesota

117.8

117.6

117.5

117.6

16

Notre Dame

117.6

115.8

117.3

116.9

17

Texas A&M

117.4

115.6

116.4

116.5

18

Iowa St.

114.5

115.1

114.7

114.8

19

Washington

114.3

114.0

115.3

114.5

20

Baylor

114.3

114.5

113.9

114.2

21

Central Florida

113.7

113.0

114.5

113.7

22

Washington St.

112.7

111.9

113.2

112.6

23

Michigan St.

112.4

111.5

111.9

111.9

24

South Carolina

111.7

110.0

111.1

110.9

25

Missouri

111.3

108.9

110.8

110.3

26

Kansas St.

110.4

110.3

110.2

110.3

27

Oklahoma St.

110.0

110.5

109.5

110.0

28

U S C

109.6

110.2

110.0

110.0

29

Texas

109.6

109.9

109.6

109.7

30

Mississippi St.

109.1

105.5

113.1

109.2

31

Tennessee

109.5

109.1

108.3

109.0

32

Cincinnati

108.6

107.4

109.2

108.4

33

T C U

107.3

110.0

107.8

108.4

34

Indiana

108.8

107.7

108.4

108.3

35

Appalachian St.

108.7

107.8

108.4

108.3

36

Kentucky

108.4

107.0

107.3

107.6

37

Virginia

107.2

107.2

107.1

107.2

38

SMU

106.7

106.5

107.9

107.0

39

Arizona St.

106.9

106.2

107.4

106.9

40

Boise St.

106.4

106.1

106.7

106.4

41

North Carolina

105.9

105.8

106.9

106.2

42

Memphis

105.7

105.6

106.2

105.8

43

Florida St.

105.6

105.7

105.8

105.7

44

Miami (Fla.)

105.5

104.9

106.4

105.6

45

Pittsburgh

105.6

105.3

105.7

105.5

46

Duke

105.4

104.8

105.3

105.2

47

Air Force

104.3

105.7

105.4

105.1

48

Ole Miss

105.5

104.5

105.2

105.1

49

Northwestern

104.6

103.6

103.4

103.9

50

Texas Tech

104.1

104.3

103.2

103.9

51

Wake Forest

103.8

103.2

104.1

103.7

52

Stanford

103.7

103.0

103.4

103.4

53

Purdue

103.6

103.3

102.9

103.3

54

Nebraska

103.1

103.7

102.3

103.0

55

Syracuse

103.4

102.7

102.8

103.0

56

California

102.5

102.1

103.0

102.5

57

Utah St.

102.5

101.7

103.3

102.5

58

West Virginia

102.4

101.8

101.5

101.9

59

Virginia Tech

101.3

101.4

101.7

101.5

60

Illinois

101.2

102.1

100.6

101.3

61

Louisiana

101.1

101.2

101.0

101.1

62

U C L A

101.0

100.8

100.6

100.8

63

Maryland

101.4

100.5

100.0

100.6

64

Tulane

99.7

100.5

100.1

100.1

65

Boston College

99.8

99.4

100.1

99.8

66

Wyoming

98.7

100.9

99.3

99.6

67

BYU

99.6

99.6

99.6

99.6

68

North Carolina St.

99.6

99.3

99.7

99.5

69

Louisville

99.3

99.1

99.2

99.2

70

Arizona

98.9

98.7

98.6

98.7

71

Western Michigan

98.6

97.7

98.5

98.3

72

San Diego St.

97.6

99.3

97.4

98.1

73

Temple

98.0

97.2

98.8

98.0

74

Oregon St.

97.6

98.6

97.1

97.8

75

Houston

96.8

97.7

98.8

97.7

76

Kansas

96.9

97.9

97.0

97.3

77

Navy

95.9

98.4

96.8

97.1

78

Vanderbilt

97.3

96.0

96.0

96.4

79

Colorado

96.2

96.0

96.0

96.0

80

Hawaii

95.8

97.3

95.0

96.0

81

Fresno St.

94.9

95.8

95.2

95.3

82

Arkansas

94.9

95.2

94.2

94.8

83

Florida Atlantic

94.5

94.2

95.5

94.7

84

Georgia Tech

94.9

93.2

95.3

94.5

85

Georgia Southern

94.8

94.5

94.0

94.5

86

Ohio

94.2

93.3

94.7

94.1

87

Northern Illinois

94.3

93.4

94.5

94.1

88

Southern Miss.

94.4

93.1

94.6

94.0

89

Louisiana Tech

93.8

94.2

94.1

94.0

90

Army

93.8

93.8

92.8

93.5

91

Georgia St.

92.3

93.6

92.0

92.6

92

Tulsa

91.8

92.7

93.0

92.5

93

Troy

92.1

92.7

91.2

92.0

94

Middle Tennessee

91.9

91.1

92.2

91.7

95

South Florida

91.1

92.3

91.5

91.6

96

Western Kentucky

90.5

91.5

92.2

91.4

97

Buffalo

90.5

91.1

91.8

91.1

98

U A B

90.1

92.0

91.0

91.1

99

Arkansas St.

91.1

91.3

90.8

91.1

100

Marshall

90.6

90.0

91.4

90.7

101

North Texas

90.5

89.8

90.8

90.4

102

Ball St.

90.2

89.7

90.2

90.0

103

Miami (Ohio)

89.3

88.0

89.7

89.0

104

Toledo

88.2

88.5

88.9

88.5

105

Liberty

87.9

89.0

88.0

88.3

106

Florida Int’l.

88.3

88.1

88.3

88.2

107

San Jose St.

87.3

89.3

87.1

87.9

108

Eastern Michigan

87.3

87.5

87.8

87.6

109

Kent St.

87.4

87.2

87.7

87.4

110

Colorado St.

85.9

89.6

86.4

87.3

111

Coastal Carolina

87.0

88.1

86.4

87.2

112

Nevada

86.1

87.4

85.2

86.2

113

Louisiana-Monroe

86.0

86.7

85.8

86.2

114

Central Michigan

84.7

85.4

85.5

85.2

115

U N L V

84.6

86.1

84.3

85.0

116

Charlotte

84.3

84.6

84.5

84.5

117

Rutgers

84.9

84.6

83.9

84.5

118

Texas St.

82.0

82.7

81.4

82.0

119

East Carolina

81.0

82.6

81.0

81.5

120

New Mexico

79.9

82.5

78.8

80.4

121

Rice

79.7

80.8

78.9

79.8

122

New Mexico St.

76.2

78.3

76.2

76.9

123

Texas-San Antonio

74.7

77.0

74.5

75.4

124

South Alabama

74.3

76.8

73.5

74.9

125

Connecticut

73.2

76.6

72.3

74.0

126

Old Dominion

73.5

73.7

73.4

73.5

127

Bowling Green

72.7

72.4

72.6

72.6

128

U T E P

68.6

72.9

69.4

70.3

129

Akron

69.4

69.3

68.2

68.9

130

Massachusetts

60.7

62.6

59.4

60.9

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

113.7

113.0

114.5

113.7

3-1

6-2

Cincinnati

108.6

107.4

109.2

108.4

3-0

6-1

Temple

98.0

97.2

98.8

98.0

2-2

5-3

South Florida

91.1

92.3

91.5

91.6

2-2

4-4

East Carolina

81.0

82.6

81.0

81.5

0-4

3-5

Connecticut

73.2

76.6

72.3

74.0

0-4

2-6

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

SMU

106.7

106.5

107.9

107.0

4-0

8-0

Memphis

105.7

105.6

106.2

105.8

3-1

7-1

Tulane

99.7

100.5

100.1

100.1

2-2

5-3

Houston

96.8

97.7

98.8

97.7

1-3

3-5

Navy

95.9

98.4

96.8

97.1

4-1

6-1

Tulsa

91.8

92.7

93.0

92.5

0-4

2-6

AAC Averages

96.8

97.5

97.5

97.3

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

135.0

132.7

136.0

134.6

6-0

8-0

Florida St.

105.6

105.7

105.8

105.7

3-3

4-4

Wake Forest

103.8

103.2

104.1

103.7

2-1

6-1

Syracuse

103.4

102.7

102.8

103.0

0-4

3-5

Boston College

99.8

99.4

100.1

99.8

2-3

4-4

North Carolina St.

99.6

99.3

99.7

99.5

1-2

4-3

Louisville

99.3

99.1

99.2

99.2

3-2

5-3

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Virginia

107.2

107.2

107.1

107.2

3-2

5-3

North Carolina

105.9

105.8

106.9

106.2

3-2

4-4

Miami (Fla.)

105.5

104.9

106.4

105.6

2-3

4-4

Pittsburgh

105.6

105.3

105.7

105.5

2-2

5-3

Duke

105.4

104.8

105.3

105.2

2-3

4-4

Virginia Tech

101.3

101.4

101.7

101.5

3-2

5-2

Georgia Tech

94.9

93.2

95.3

94.5

1-3

2-5

ACC Averages

105.2

104.6

105.4

105.1

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

123.2

122.4

122.9

122.8

4-1

7-1

Iowa St.

114.5

115.1

114.7

114.8

3-2

5-3

Baylor

114.3

114.5

113.9

114.2

4-0

7-0

Kansas St.

110.4

110.3

110.2

110.3

2-2

5-2

Oklahoma St.

110.0

110.5

109.5

110.0

2-3

5-3

Texas

109.6

109.9

109.6

109.7

3-2

5-3

T C U

107.3

110.0

107.8

108.4

2-2

4-3

Texas Tech

104.1

104.3

103.2

103.9

1-4

3-5

West Virginia

102.4

101.8

101.5

101.9

1-3

3-4

Kansas

96.9

97.9

97.0

97.3

1-4

3-5

Big 12 Averages

109.3

109.7

109.0

109.3

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

138.7

137.8

139.8

138.8

5-0

8-0

Penn St.

124.6

123.8

124.9

124.5

5-0

8-0

Michigan

121.5

119.9

121.8

121.1

3-2

6-2

Michigan St.

112.4

111.5

111.9

111.9

2-3

4-4

Indiana

108.8

107.7

108.4

108.3

3-2

6-2

Maryland

101.4

100.5

100.0

100.6

1-4

3-5

Rutgers

84.9

84.6

83.9

84.5

0-5

2-6

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

120.1

119.7

120.0

119.9

3-2

6-2

Iowa

118.8

117.0

118.7

118.1

3-2

6-2

Minnesota

117.8

117.6

117.5

117.6

5-0

8-0

Northwestern

104.6

103.6

103.4

103.9

0-5

1-6

Purdue

103.6

103.3

102.9

103.3

1-4

2-6

Nebraska

103.1

103.7

102.3

103.0

2-3

4-4

Illinois

101.2

102.1

100.6

101.3

2-3

4-4

Big Ten Averages

111.5

110.9

111.1

111.2

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Florida Atlantic

94.5

94.2

95.5

94.7

3-1

5-3

Middle Tennessee

91.9

91.1

92.2

91.7

2-2

3-5

Western Kentucky

90.5

91.5

92.2

91.4

4-1

5-3

Marshall

90.6

90.0

91.4

90.7

3-1

5-3

Florida Int’l.

88.3

88.1

88.3

88.2

2-3

4-4

Charlotte

84.3

84.6

84.5

84.5

1-3

3-5

Old Dominion

73.5

73.7

73.4

73.5

0-4

1-7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Southern Miss.

94.4

93.1

94.6

94.0

3-1

5-3

Louisiana Tech

93.8

94.2

94.1

94.0

4-0

7-1

U A B

90.1

92.0

91.0

91.1

3-1

6-1

North Texas

90.5

89.8

90.8

90.4

2-2

3-5

Rice

79.7

80.8

78.9

79.8

0-4

0-8

Texas-San Antonio

74.7

77.0

74.5

75.4

2-2

3-4

U T E P

68.6

72.9

69.4

70.3

0-4

1-6

CUSA Averages

86.1

86.7

86.5

86.4

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

117.6

115.8

117.3

116.9

x

5-2

BYU

99.6

99.6

99.6

99.6

x

3-4

Army

93.8

93.8

92.8

93.5

x

3-5

Liberty

87.9

89.0

88.0

88.3

x

5-3

New Mexico St.

76.2

78.3

76.2

76.9

x

0-8

Massachusetts

60.7

62.6

59.4

60.9

x

1-7

Indep. Averages

89.3

89.8

88.9

89.3

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Ohio

94.2

93.3

94.7

94.1

3-1

4-4

Buffalo

90.5

91.1

91.8

91.1

2-2

4-4

Miami (Ohio)

89.3

88.0

89.7

89.0

3-1

4-4

Kent St.

87.4

87.2

87.7

87.4

2-2

3-5

Bowling Green

72.7

72.4

72.6

72.6

1-3

2-6

Akron

69.4

69.3

68.2

68.9

0-4

0-8

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

98.6

97.7

98.5

98.3

3-2

5-4

Northern Illinois

94.3

93.4

94.5

94.1

2-2

3-5

Ball St.

90.2

89.7

90.2

90.0

3-1

4-4

Toledo

88.2

88.5

88.9

88.5

2-2

5-3

Eastern Michigan

87.3

87.5

87.8

87.6

1-3

4-4

Central Michigan

84.7

85.4

85.5

85.2

3-2

5-4

MAC Averages

87.2

87.0

87.5

87.2

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Boise St.

106.4

106.1

106.7

106.4

3-0

6-1

Air Force

104.3

105.7

105.4

105.1

4-1

6-2

Utah St.

102.5

101.7

103.3

102.5

3-1

4-3

Wyoming

98.7

100.9

99.3

99.6

3-1

6-2

Colorado St.

85.9

89.6

86.4

87.3

2-2

3-5

New Mexico

79.9

82.5

78.8

80.4

0-4

2-6

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

San Diego St.

97.6

99.3

97.4

98.1

4-1

7-1

Hawaii

95.8

97.3

95.0

96.0

2-2

5-3

Fresno St.

94.9

95.8

95.2

95.3

1-2

3-4

San Jose St.

87.3

89.3

87.1

87.9

1-3

4-4

Nevada

86.1

87.4

85.2

86.2

1-3

4-4

U N L V

84.6

86.1

84.3

85.0

1-4

2-6

MWC Averages

93.7

95.1

93.7

94.2

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

118.4

118.4

119.6

118.8

5-0

7-1

Washington

114.3

114.0

115.3

114.5

2-3

5-3

Washington St.

112.7

111.9

113.2

112.6

1-4

4-4

Stanford

103.7

103.0

103.4

103.4

3-3

4-4

California

102.5

102.1

103.0

102.5

1-4

4-4

Oregon St.

97.6

98.6

97.1

97.8

2-2

3-4

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

123.7

122.6

124.5

123.6

4-1

7-1

U S C

109.6

110.2

110.0

110.0

4-1

5-3

Arizona St.

106.9

106.2

107.4

106.9

2-3

5-3

U C L A

101.0

100.8

100.6

100.8

3-2

3-5

Arizona

98.9

98.7

98.6

98.7

2-3

4-4

Colorado

96.2

96.0

96.0

96.0

1-4

3-5

Pac-12 Averages

107.1

106.9

107.4

107.1

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

126.5

124.6

126.4

125.8

3-1

6-1

Florida

123.0

120.1

122.6

121.9

5-1

7-1

South Carolina

111.7

110.0

111.1

110.9

2-4

3-5

Missouri

111.3

108.9

110.8

110.3

2-2

5-3

Tennessee

109.5

109.1

108.3

109.0

2-3

3-5

Kentucky

108.4

107.0

107.3

107.6

2-4

4-4

Vanderbilt

97.3

96.0

96.0

96.4

1-3

2-5

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Alabama

135.3

132.2

136.0

134.5

5-0

8-0

L S U

129.1

126.8

129.0

128.3

4-0

8-0

Auburn

123.7

122.0

123.7

123.1

3-2

6-2

Texas A&M

117.4

115.6

116.4

116.5

3-2

5-3

Mississippi St.

109.1

105.5

113.1

109.2

1-4

3-5

Ole Miss

105.5

104.5

105.2

105.1

2-3

3-5

Arkansas

94.9

95.2

94.2

94.8

0-5

2-6

SEC Averages

114.5

112.7

114.3

113.8

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

108.7

107.8

108.4

108.3

4-0

7-0

Georgia Southern

94.8

94.5

94.0

94.5

2-1

4-3

Georgia St.

92.3

93.6

92.0

92.6

3-1

6-2

Troy

92.1

92.7

91.2

92.0

1-2

3-4

Coastal Carolina

87.0

88.1

86.4

87.2

0-3

3-4

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

101.1

101.2

101.0

101.1

2-1

5-2

Arkansas St.

91.1

91.3

90.8

91.1

2-2

4-4

Louisiana-Monroe

86.0

86.7

85.8

86.2

2-1

3-4

Texas St.

82.0

82.7

81.4

82.0

1-2

2-5

South Alabama

74.3

76.8

73.5

74.9

0-4

1-7

SBC Averages

90.9

91.5

90.5

91.0

 

Conference Power Ratings

#

League

Average

1

Southeastern

113.8

2

Big Ten

111.2

3

Big 12

109.3

4

Pac-12

107.1

5

Atlantic Coast

105.1

6

American

97.3

7

Mountain West

94.2

8

Sun Belt

91.0

9

Independents

89.3

10

Mid-American

87.2

11

Conference USA

86.4

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1

SMU

2

Appalachian St.

3

Cincinnati

4

Navy

5

Boise St.

 

This Week’s Look At Some Key Contenders Not Getting Enough Publicity

What a difference a strange weekend of football makes!  With Kansas State beating Oklahoma, and LSU taking care of business against Auburn, the playoff picture began to swing toward the SEC getting two teams into the Playoffs.  At the moment, the Big Ten still has three undefeated teams, so there is a chance that the Big Ten could get two teams into the Playoffs if the regular season ends with a 13-0 team and a 12-1 or 11-1 team.

Minnesota will get its chance to prove whether they truly are Golden Gophers or just pests digging a hole in the ground.  If  Minny can beat Penn State, and then the Gophers follow it up with wins at Iowa and at home against Wisconsin, then the least Minnesota could get for a postseason reward would be their first trip to the Rose Bowl since January of 1962.

Having closely watched and diagnosed every scrimmage play in Minnesota’s last two games, this team looks to be legitimate.  The Gophers have an excellent inside-outside running attack.  Their running backs hit the perimeter quickly with speed.  The Gophers can get yards between the tackles as well.  Of all the teams we have seen so far this year, Minnesota’s rushing attack is the most consistent among teams that do not use the option.

The Gopher passing attack is one of the best in the nation with Tanner Morgan just a fraction behind Ohio State’s Justin Fields in league passer efficiency.

The Gophers aren’t all offense.  The Minnesota defense is surrendering just 284 yards (13th best in the nation) and 20 points per game. But, the defense is on a roll.  After giving up 119 points in their first four games, UM has given up just 41 in the last four.

Penn State and Minnesota both have the week off to prepare for this big game.  Unfortunately, this is the same day as the Alabama-LSU game, so it will be second banana to the first of many “game of the years.”

 

Baylor is still undefeated, the final team from the Big 12 that can say that now that Oklahoma has fallen.  In order for Baylor to get to the playoffs, the Bears must run the table, and that means almost assuredly having to beat Oklahoma twice.  A split puts Baylor in either the Sugar Bowl or Cotton Bowl, if that it their only loss.

 

Out in the Pac-12, Utah and Oregon face key games this week.  Utah plays at Washington, while Oregon  plays at USC.  If both division leaders win, then they must be put in contention for a playoff spot if the Conference Championship Game winner is 12-1, while the runner-up is 11-2.

 

In the Group of 5 this week, SMU plays at Memphis, and the winner will be a co-leader with Cincinnati for the Cotton Bowl bid.  Appalachian State is still undefeated, but the Mountaineers will have to win out (including winning at South Carolina), while SMU will have to lose a game, before Appy has a chance to get to the Cotton Bowl. 

 

This Week’s Playoffs and Bowl Projections

American Athletic

SMU held on to a narrow road win against Houston, so the Mustangs are the current top Group of 5 team in line to play at home in the Cotton Bowl.  Memphis is still alive only by a fluke missed chip-shot field goal by Tulsa.  Cincinnati and Navy still have shots at that Cotton Bowl bid, while Central Florida is still around with two losses should a bunch of teams lose in November.

East Carolina, Houston, and South Florida still have minute chances to get bowl eligible, but our ratings are calling for all three to miss out.  Tulane needs one more win to become bowl eligible, and they must beat Tulsa this weekend, or the Green Wave could miss out.  Their final three games are tough.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 7

 

Atlantic Coast

Clemson should be able to coast home with a 13-0 record and Playoff bid.  The Tigers should win their final four regular season games by margins of 20 or more every week.  The Coastal Division will probably send a 5-3 team to the ACC Championship Game, and other than North Carolina looking for revenge, we don’t see any of the other contenders making the title game close.

Notre Dame caucuses with the ACC for bowl bids, and with no viable ACC team looking formidable, the Irish will most likely take the next bowl in the ACC pecking order.  This week, we are going with a Big Ten team in the Orange Bowl, so for now it looks like the Citrus Bowl for the number two team in this group.

Including Notre Dame, there is a good chance that the ACC will have 12 bowl eligible teams, meaning there will be room for two additional at-large bowl bids.  The ACC has secondary agreements with the Birmingham and Gasparilla Bowls.  The Birmingham Bowl will most definitely need an at-large team, so ACC #11 will get that bid.  The Gasparilla Bowl most likely will not need an at-large team, but that ACC #12 will still receive an at-large bid.  With the SEC obviously falling well short this year, that #12 ACC team could end up in Memphis in the Liberty Bowl.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 12 (includes Notre Dame)

 

Big 12

With Oklahoma losing, for now, we are keeping the Big 12 out of the Playoffs.  There is still a 20% chance that either Baylor or Oklahoma run the table to stay in contention at the end.  One team will have to sweep the other to pull it off.

TCU’s upset of Texas (wasn’t really an upset) puts the Horned Frogs back into position to become bowl eligible, while Texas Tech’s loss to Kansas knocks the Red Raiders out of contention for now.  We’re not ready to put Les Miles and his Jayhawks into contention, but if KU knocks off Kansas State this weekend, then we might be forced to give them some consideration.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 7

 

Big Ten

Ohio State has an excellent chance to make the Playoffs as the top seed.  On the other hand, they might have to get there by beating an undefeated Penn State or Minnesota team, and they have to play at Michigan.  Could history from repeat itself from 50 years ago?  In 1969, the best ever Ohio State team coming off a really embarrassing blowout of Michigan the year before, went to Ann Arbor to face a two-loss Michigan team.  Michigan’s defense did the near-impossible, stopping the greatest Buckeye offense in school history.  We can hardly wait.

Indiana’s win at Nebraska virtually guarantees that the Hoosiers will become bowl eligible.  Illinois’s win over Purdue puts Lovie Smith’s Illini in strong contention for a bowl bid, while Purdue played itself out of contention.

Michigan State is struggling, but the Spartans should win six or seven games to become bowl eligible, while Nebraska is hoping the return of Adrian Martinez and games with Purdue and Maryland will get the Cornhuskers to 6-6.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 10

 

Conference USA

This is a down year for CUSA, as no team is in contention for the Group of 5 NY6 Bowl bid.  In the East, Marshall is now in control of their destiny thanks to a last-play 53-yard field goal against Western Kentucky.  Florida Atlantic and WKU are the other teams still in contention, but all three of these teams will get bowl bids.

In the West, it is looking like there could be a three-way tie between Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, and UAB.  North Texas is suffering a disappointing year, and the Mean Green have been removed from bowl contention by our ratings.

We expect CUSA to have on more bowl eligible team than it has bowl contracts, and that sixth team might be headed to Shreveport, Louisiana in late December.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 6

 

Independents

(not including Notre Dame, which counts with the ACC)

This has turned into a disappointing season for Army, and we now have the Black Knights finishing under .500.  Brigham Young has an automatic bowl bid to Hawaii if the Cougars go 6-6 or better.  6-6 is the most likely record for BYU.

Liberty has not been to a bowl in its short history in FBS football, but the Flames have a secondary agreement with the Cure Bowl should the Cure Bowl need an at-large team.  This week, for the first time, we have the Cure Bowl needing an at-large team, so Hugh Freeze might be staying quite warm in Florida in December.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 2

 

Mid-American

This is a down year in the MAC, but the parity is going to lead to many more bowl eligible teams than the MAC has bowls to place them.  The MAC has five guaranteed bowl bids plus secondary agreements with two others.  One of those other secondary agreements is the Quick Lane Bowl which will not need an at-large team.  The Frisco Bowl always needs an at-large team, since there is only one tie-in, so the MAC can expect a second consecutive bowl bid there.  This year, the MAC is likely to see at least one additional team go to a bowl that has no MACtion secondary agreement.  Because our ratings this week forecast 79 bowl eligible teams, the odd team out is likely to be a 6-6 MAC team.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 8 (But only 7 will receive bids)

 

Mountain West

The Mountain West will most likely lose its secondary chance at the Hawaii and Cheez-it Bowls, which means that the league will only have five guaranteed bowl bids.  This league will most likely have seven bowl eligible teams, so two members will be headed East and South in December.

Boise State still remains in contention for the Group of 5 NY6 bid to the Cotton Bowl, but the Broncos still have three tough tests remaining.  They must beat Utah State and Wyoming and then the West Division representative in the MWC Championship Game.  For now, we have Boise winning the championship but not getting the Cotton Bowl bid.

Air Force has a chance to finish 10-2, and the Falcons could be moved out of the MWC’s bowl tie-ins in order to fly east to a more prestigious bowl, maybe replacing the SEC in a Southern bowl game.  Air Force can fill up most stadiums with Cadets, and they don’t have problems with airline reservations.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 7

 

Pac-12

Oregon and Utah still have minor chances to sneak into the Playoffs, but until teams like Clemson, Ohio State, Alabama, LSU, and Penn State start losing games, we will put the league champion in Pasadena.

This week, we remove California from bowl contention and put rival Stanford back in.  We also remove Arizona for now, so there will not be extra bowl eligible teams if our scenario plays itself out.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 7

 

Southeastern

It may be the strongest league in college football, but the SEC is going to be the league that causes multiple bowls to look elsewhere for at-large teams.  The Independence and Birmingham Bowls must already be looking at potential at-large teams.  The Belk, Liberty, and Music City Bowls might also wish to start looking around for potential at-large teams.

If both Alabama and LSU make the playoffs, and then Florida and Georgia (or Auburn) then receive Sugar and Orange Bowl bids, four teams are already removed before the meat of the bowls look for what’s left.

Because Missouri is ineligible for a bowl, and Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, and South Carolina look to be out of bowl contention, an Ole Miss Egg Bowl win over Mississippi State will likely leave the SEC with just 8 Bowl Eligible teams.  Only four teams will remain for the nine SEC spots needed to fulfill the SEC’s bowl contracts.

The Citrus, Outback, Gator, and Texas Bowls are the bowls that the SEC will need to fill.  That leaves the Belk, Music City, Liberty, Birmingham, and Independence Bowls without SEC teams.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 8

 

Sun Belt

Congratulations go out to Georgia State for joining Appy State as teams already eligible for bowls this year.  Appy State is hoping for a miracle.  If the Mountaineers win at South Carolina and finish the regular season 13-0, there is a chance they  could get the Cotton Bowl bid.  For now, we see them coming up one game short.

Louisiana is one win away from becoming bowl eligible, while Arkansas State and Georgia Southern have legitimate paths to bowl eligibility, and UL-Monroe has a path, just not as legitimate as the other two.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 5

 

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Western Michigan

Marshall

Frisco

AAC

At-large

SMU

[Miami (O)]

Cure

AAC

SBC

[Liberty]

Arkansas St.

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

Louisiana Tech

San Diego St.

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Memphis

Eastern Michigan

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Central Michigan

Louisiana

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

Boise St.

Washington St.

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

Southern Miss.

Appalachian St.

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Central Florida

Florida Atlantic

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC

BYU

Navy

Independence

ACC

SEC

Florida St.

[Western Kentucky]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

North Carolina St.

Illiois

Military

ACC

AAC

Pittsburgh

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

North Carolina

Michigan St.

Texas

Big 12

SEC

Texas

Texas A&M

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

USC

Michigan

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

TCU

Stanford

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Virginia Tech

Oklahoma St.

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Cincinnati

Baylor

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

UAB

[Utah St.]

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington

Iowa

Music City

SEC

ACC

[Air Force]

Louisville

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Georgia

Penn St.

Belk

ACC

SEC

Wake Forest

[Buffalo]

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

Virginia

Arizona St.

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

Iowa St.

[Duke]

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Georgia Southern

San Jose St.

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Kansas St.

Oregon

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Auburn

Notre Dame

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Indiana

Tennessee

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Minnesota

Utah

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Oklahoma

Florida

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Tulane

[Miami (Fla.)]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Kentucky

Wisconsin

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Toledo

Wyoming

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

Nebraska

Hawaii

Dollar General

MAC

SBC

Ohio U

Georgia St.

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

Ohio St.

LSU

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Alabama

Clemson

 

 

Championship

Fiesta

Peach

Ohio St.

Alabama

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

October 24, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For October 24-28, 2019

It couldn’t last.  Our winning streak ended soon after it began, and both the PiRate Picks and Experimental Davey19 picks fell to the losing side last week.  We’re back at it again hoping that maybe if you see a game you have thought about wagering real money on the outcome, you will see that we agree with you, and you will quickly forget playing that game.

Remember, the PiRates do not wager real money on football games, and we encourage you not to use our picks as handicapping aids if you happen to play for real.  These picks are free and are priced exactly where they need to be.

PiRate Picks

This week, we add a new twist that hasn’t been shown here in several years.  We are going to make a few 6-point teaser picks (2-game parlays @ 10-11 odds)

College 6-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Connecticut

Massachusetts

4

UConn

Memphis

Tulsa

4.5

Memphis

 

College 6-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Texas A&M

Mississippi St.

4.5

Texas A&M

Iowa

Northwestern

4

Iowa

 

College 6-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Miami (Fla.)

Pittsburgh

0.5

Pittsburgh

Arkansas St.

Texas St.

5.5

Arkansas St.

 

College 10-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

SMU

Houston

4

SMU

Central Michigan

Buffalo

7.5

Buffalo

Purdue

Illinois

20

Illinois

 

College 10-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Liberty

Rutgers

17

Rutgers

Rice

Southern Miss.

0.5

Southern Miss

Wyoming

Nevada

4

Wyoming

 

College 10-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Fresno St.

Colorado St.

4.5

Fresno St

Georgia Southern

N. Mexico St.

4.5

Ga. Southern

Iowa St.

Oklahoma St.

0.5

Iowa St.

 

College 10-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Ohio

Ball St.

7.5

Ball St.

Oklahoma

Kansas St.

13.5

Oklahoma

Minnesota

Maryland

6.5

Minnesota

 

College 10-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Texas

TCU

11.5

TCU

Ohio St.

Wisconsin

4.5

Ohio St.

LSU

Auburn

0.5

LSU

 

College 13-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Troy

Georgia St.

12

Georgia St.

Penn St.

Michigan St.

19.5

Michigan St.

Middle Tennessee

Florida Int’l.

10.5

Fla. Intl

South Carolina

Tennessee

17.5

Tennessee

 

NFL 10-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Minnesota

Washington

6.5

Minnesota

N.Y. Giants

Detroit

3

Detroit

Tampa Bay

Tennessee

7.5

Tennessee

 

NFL 10-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

LA Chargers

Chicago

6

Chicago

N.Y. Jets

Jacksonville

4

Jacksonville

Philadelphia

Buffalo

8.5

Buffalo

 

NFL 10-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

LA Rams

Cincinnati

3

LA Rams

New Orleans

Arizona

0.5

New Orleans

Oakland

Houston

3

Houston

 

NFL 10-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Denver

Indianapolis

4.5

Indianapolis

New England

Cleveland

3

New England

Miami

Pittsburgh

4.5

Pittsburgh

 

Davey19 Selections

College Picks Against The Spread

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Connecticut

Massachusetts

10

UMass

Purdue

Illinois

10

Illinois

Central Florida

Temple

11

Temple

Buffalo

Central Michigan

2.5

Buffalo

Liberty

Rutgers

7.5

Rutgers

Marshall

Western Kentucky

5

Western Kentucky

Iowa St.

Oklahoma St.

10.5

Oklahoma St.

Ball St.

Ohio

2.5

Ball St.

North Texas

Charlotte

4.5

Charlotte

 

Note: For those of you that play for real, please be aware that in both college and pro football this weekend, Miami is playing Pittsburgh at Heinz Stadium.  Don’t confuse the games on the card.

The Pitt Panthers and Miami of Florida Hurricanes face off Saturday at Noon Eastern Daylight Time.  The Steelers host the Dolphins on Monday Night at 8:20 PM Eastern Daylight Time.

 

And, as a reminder, next Sunday’s NFL games will kick off in Standard Time.  Daylight Savings Time goes to bed Sunday morning at 2 AM, November 3.  It never ceases to amaze us as to how many 9 to 5 workers fail to notice that one of their car’s headlights, taillights, brake lights, or signal lights is not working, until after the clocks are set back in the Fall, and they drive home from work in the dark. 

Please check all your lights before you turn your clock back an hour.  Darkness at 4:30 PM always leads to increased traffic accidents in large cities, so play it safe and prepare by becoming a better defensive driver.  The life you save, may be mine.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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