The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 26, 2022

PiRate Ratings NFL Football Week 17–Dec. 29-Jan. 2

This Week’s Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
TennesseeDallas-8.7-8.3-8.9
AtlantaArizona1.82.52.6
BaltimorePittsburgh7.87.16.5
DetroitChicago7.17.48.0
HoustonJacksonville-6.2-6.1-6.4
Kansas CityDenver16.115.016.0
New EnglandMiami6.46.36.8
N.Y. GiantsIndianapolis3.85.05.3
PhiladelphiaNew Orleans10.811.210.9
Tampa BayCarolina5.44.23.9
WashingtonCleveland0.60.70.9
Las VegasSan Francisco-2.7-3.0-3.7
SeattleN.Y. Jets0.90.31.3
Green BayMinnesota3.22.72.9
LA ChargersLA Rams-1.8-0.5-0.5
CincinnatiBuffalo-1.8-1.4-0.7

This Week’s Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
TennesseeDallas45
AtlantaArizona47.5
BaltimorePittsburgh36.5
DetroitChicago48
HoustonJacksonville43.5
Kansas CityDenver44.5
New EnglandMiami43
N.Y. GiantsIndianapolis39.5
PhiladelphiaNew Orleans46
Tampa BayCarolina42
WashingtonCleveland40
Las VegasSan Francisco43.5
SeattleN.Y. Jets41.5
Green BayMinnesota49.5
LA ChargersLA Rams45
CincinnatiBuffalo48.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo111.3111.0110.8111.02312-3
New England103.4103.2103.4103.319.57-8
N.Y. Jets100.0100.5100.1100.218.57-8
Miami100.0100.099.699.923.58-7

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Cincinnati106.4106.6107.1106.725.511-4
Baltimore103.4102.9102.7103.017.510-5
Pittsburgh98.698.899.298.9197-8
Cleveland98.998.398.598.621.56-9

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Jacksonville100.0101.0101.0100.723.57-8
Tennessee95.395.495.295.318.57-8
Indianapolis94.594.394.294.319.54-10-1
Houston91.392.592.191.9202-12-1

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City109.6109.1108.8109.228.512-3
LA Chargers99.3100.199.999.824.59-6
Las Vegas99.499.499.299.324.56-9
Denver96.597.195.896.5164-11

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Philadelphia107.8107.2107.3107.426.513-2
Dallas106.5106.2106.5106.426.511-4
Washington97.096.596.896.818.57-7-1
N.Y. Giants95.496.396.596.1208-6-1

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay101.7101.1101.5101.422.57-8
Minnesota101.0100.9101.2101.02712-3
Detroit97.498.098.397.926.57-8
Chicago92.893.192.792.921.53-12

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay100.199.399.299.520.57-8
New Orleans100.099.099.499.519.56-9
Carolina97.297.697.897.521.56-9
Atlanta95.195.595.495.323.55-10

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
San Francisco104.6104.9105.4104.91911-4
LA Rams101.1100.6100.4100.720.55-10
Seattle97.897.898.498.0237-8
Arizona96.396.095.796.0244-11

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1Kansas City
2Cincinnati
3Buffalo
4Jacksonville
5Baltimore
6LA Chargers
7New England
NFC Seeding
1Philadelphia
2Minnesota
3San Francisco
4Tampa Bay
5Dallas
6New York Giants
7Washington

Wildcard Round
Cincinnati over New England
Buffalo over LA Chargers
Jacksonville over Baltimore
Minnesota over Washington
San Francisco over N.Y. Giants
Dallas over Tampa Bay

Divisional Round
Kansas City over Jacksonville
Cincinnati over Buffalo
Philadelphia over Dallas
San Francisco over Minnesota

Conference Championship
Cincinnati over Kansas City
San Francisco over Philadelphia

Super Bowl 57 (Glendale, AZ)
Cincinnati over San Francisco

December 12, 2022

PiRate Ratings NFL For Week 15–December 15-19, 2022

This Week’s Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
SeattleSan Francisco1.11.01.6
BuffaloMiami14.113.613.9
ClevelandBaltimore-3.0-3.3-3.0
MinnesotaIndianapolis10.510.911.6
New OrleansAtlanta7.76.26.8
WashingtonN.Y. Giants4.42.93.3
CarolinaPittsburgh0.10.30.1
ChicagoPhiladelphia-11.3-10.7-11.3
HoustonKansas City-18.9-17.2-18.2
JacksonvilleDallas-10.3-8.9-10.1
N.Y. JetsDetroit8.88.88.2
DenverArizona5.25.64.4
LA ChargersTennessee2.12.62.2
Tampa BayCincinnati1.30.3-0.3
Las VegasNew England-1.4-1.3-2.1
Green BayLA Rams5.04.65.0

This Week’s Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
SeattleSan Francisco43
BuffaloMiami45.5
ClevelandBaltimore43.5
MinnesotaIndianapolis45.5
New OrleansAtlanta44
WashingtonN.Y. Giants38.5
CarolinaPittsburgh41
ChicagoPhiladelphia47
HoustonKansas City48.5
JacksonvilleDallas47.5
N.Y. JetsDetroit46.5
DenverArizona39.5
LA ChargersTennessee46
Tampa BayCincinnati44.5
Las VegasNew England44
Green BayLA Rams41.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo111.3111.0110.8111.022.510-3
New England103.8103.8104.2103.9197-6
N.Y. Jets102.3102.9102.7102.6207-6
Miami100.1100.399.8100.1238-5

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Cincinnati105.2105.3105.8105.424.59-4
Baltimore104.4104.0103.9104.1209-4
Cleveland98.798.198.398.423.55-8
Pittsburgh98.298.398.698.4205-8

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Jacksonville97.498.498.198.0235-8
Tennessee96.496.596.496.419.57-6
Indianapolis95.695.395.295.419.54-8-1
Houston89.590.790.090.019.51-11-1

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City110.3109.8109.7109.92910-3
Las Vegas99.199.098.698.9255-8
Denver98.899.398.298.8153-10
LA Chargers97.998.798.398.326.57-6

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Philadelphia108.3107.9108.2108.125.512-1
Dallas107.6107.2107.6107.524.510-3
Washington98.397.898.398.218.57-5-1
N.Y. Giants94.595.495.495.1207-5-1

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Minnesota101.5101.5102.1101.72610-3
Green Bay101.0100.1100.4100.522.55-8
Detroit97.397.998.397.826.56-7
Chicago92.893.092.692.821.53-10

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay101.1100.199.9100.4206-7
New Orleans99.598.498.898.9204-9
Carolina96.797.197.297.0215-8
Atlanta94.895.295.095.0245-8

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
San Francisco103.6103.8104.1103.818.59-4
LA Rams98.998.598.498.6194-9
Seattle98.298.399.098.524.57-6
Arizona96.696.696.496.524.54-9

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1Buffalo
2Kansas City
3Cincinnati
4Tennessee
5Baltimore
6Miami
7LA Chargers
NFC Seeding
1Philadelphia
2Minnesota
3San Francisco
4Tampa Bay
5Dallas
6Washington
7Detroit

Wildcard Round
Kansas City over LA Chargers
Cincinnati over Miami
Baltimore over Tennessee
Detroit over Minnesota
San Francisco over Washington
Dallas over Tampa Bay

Divisional Round
Buffalo over Baltimore
Cincinnati over Kansas City
Philadelphia over Detroit
Dallas over San Francisco

Conference Championship
Buffalo over Cincinnati
Philadelphia over Dallas

Super Bowl 57 (Glendale, AZ)
Philadelphia over Buffalo

December 5, 2022

PiRate Ratings NFL Week 14–December 8-12, 2022

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
Las VegasLA Rams3.64.34.0
BuffaloN.Y. Jets11.711.011.2
CincinnatiCleveland7.98.48.5
DallasHouston20.919.320.9
DetroitMinnesota-4.3-3.9-4.3
N.Y. GiantsPhiladelphia-8.7-7.3-7.4
PittsburghBaltimore-4.6-4.3-4.1
TennesseeJacksonville4.94.24.6
LA ChargersMiami0.20.60.5
San FranciscoTampa Bay1.02.32.8
SeattleCarolina6.76.77.6
DenverKansas City-9.2-8.2-9.6
ArizonaNew England-2.0-1.8-2.1

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Margins

HomeVisitorTotal
Las VegasLA Rams45.5
BuffaloN.Y. Jets44
CincinnatiCleveland49.5
DallasHouston43.5
DetroitMinnesota52
N.Y. GiantsPhiladelphia43
PittsburghBaltimore41
TennesseeJacksonville41
LA ChargersMiami50.5
San FranciscoTampa Bay38.5
SeattleCarolina44.5
DenverKansas City42
ArizonaNew England43.5

Week 14 Byes

Indianapolis
Washington
Chicago
Green Bay
Atlanta
New Orleans

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo111.5111.3111.2111.3239-3
New England102.7102.6102.9102.7196-6
N.Y. Jets102.3102.8102.5102.5217-5
Miami100.4100.7100.3100.523.58-4

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Cincinnati105.0105.0105.4105.1258-4
Baltimore104.7104.4104.4104.520.58-4
Cleveland99.198.698.998.924.55-7
Pittsburgh98.198.198.398.220.55-7

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tennessee98.598.798.798.618.57-5
Jacksonville95.696.596.196.122.54-8
Indianapolis95.395.094.995.119.54-8-1
Houston89.090.289.389.519.51-10-1

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City110.4109.9110.0110.1289-3
Las Vegas99.499.599.199.325.55-7
Denver98.799.297.998.6143-9
LA Chargers97.698.397.897.9276-6

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas108.4108.0108.6108.3249-3
Philadelphia106.8106.4106.6106.62411-1
Washington98.097.598.097.918.57-5-1
N.Y. Giants96.297.197.296.8197-4-1

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Minnesota102.8102.9103.6103.12610-2
Green Bay100.799.8100.1100.222.55-8
Detroit96.096.596.896.4265-7
Chicago92.592.792.392.521.53-10

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay103.3102.3102.1102.6206-6
New Orleans99.298.198.598.6204-9
Carolina95.796.095.995.920.55-7
Atlanta94.594.994.794.7245-8

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
San Francisco101.4101.6101.9101.618.58-4
Seattle99.499.6100.599.9247-5
LA Rams98.898.298.198.4203-9
Arizona97.797.897.797.724.54-8

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1Buffalo
2Kansas City
3Baltimore
4Tennessee
5Cincinnati
6Miami
7Las Vegas

NFC Seeding
1Philadelphia
2Minnesota
3San Francisco
4Tampa Bay
5Dallas
6Washington
7New York Giants

Wildcard Round
Kansas City over Las Vegas
Miami over Baltimore
Cincinnati over Tennessee
Minnesota over N.Y. Giants
Washington over San Francisco
Dallas over Tampa Bay

Divisional Round
Buffalo over Miami
Kansas City over Cincinnati
Philadelphia over Washington
Dallas over Minnesota

Conference Championship
Buffalo over Kansas City
Philadelphia over Dallas

Super Bowl 57 (Glendale, AZ)
Philadelphia over Buffalo

November 28, 2022

PiRate Ratings Pro Football–Week 13: December 1-5, 2022

This Week’s Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
New EnglandBuffalo-5.7-5.3-4.6
AtlantaPittsburgh-0.4-0.1-0.4
BaltimoreDenver9.58.910.5
ChicagoGreen Bay-5.3-4.0-4.5
DetroitJacksonville0.80.10.7
HoustonCleveland-7.0-5.0-5.9
MinnesotaN.Y. Jets3.32.73.5
N.Y. GiantsWashington0.62.31.9
PhiladelphiaTennessee8.67.77.7
LA RamsSeattle2.61.90.9
San FranciscoMiami6.36.06.5
CincinnatiKansas City-3.5-3.2-2.9
Las VegasLA Chargers3.92.92.8
DallasIndianapolis12.112.012.7
Tampa BayNew Orleans7.27.57.1

This Week’s Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
New EnglandBuffalo43
AtlantaPittsburgh45.5
BaltimoreDenver36.5
ChicagoGreen Bay44
DetroitJacksonville48
HoustonCleveland44
MinnesotaN.Y. Jets47
N.Y. GiantsWashington37.5
PhiladelphiaTennessee42.5
LA RamsSeattle43
San FranciscoMiami41.5
CincinnatiKansas City53
Las VegasLA Chargers53
DallasIndianapolis41.5
Tampa BayNew Orleans41

Byes This Week

Arizona

Carolina

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo111.1110.8110.5110.823.58-3
New England102.9102.9103.4103.119.56-5
N.Y. Jets102.3102.9102.7102.6217-4
Miami100.9101.3101.0101.1238-3

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore104.9104.6104.8104.821.57-4
Cincinnati104.6104.5104.9104.7257-4
Cleveland98.898.198.398.424.54-7
Pittsburgh97.997.998.198.0214-7

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tennessee99.9100.2100.3100.118.57-4
Jacksonville96.897.897.597.422.54-7
Indianapolis97.296.996.897.018.54-7-1
Houston89.390.789.989.919.51-9-1

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City110.6110.2110.3110.4289-2
Las Vegas99.199.098.598.9264-7
LA Chargers97.798.698.298.2276-5
Denver98.398.897.398.1153-8

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas106.3105.9106.5106.2238-3
Philadelphia105.4104.9105.0105.12410-1
Washington97.997.397.897.718.57-5
N.Y. Giants96.197.197.296.8197-4

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Minnesota102.6102.6103.2102.8269-2
Green Bay100.499.499.699.822.54-8
Detroit94.695.095.294.925.54-7
Chicago92.692.992.692.721.53-9

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay103.5102.6102.5102.920.55-6
New Orleans98.897.697.998.120.54-8
Carolina95.395.695.595.520.55-7
Atlanta94.594.994.794.724.55-7

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
San Francisco104.2104.3104.5104.318.57-4
Seattle98.999.1100.099.423.56-5
LA Rams99.198.598.498.719.53-8
Arizona97.297.397.297.224.54-8

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1Kansas City
2Miami
3Cincinnati
4Tennessee
5Buffalo
6Baltimore
7New York Jets

NFC Seeding
1Philadelphia
2Minnesota
3San Francisco
4Carolina
5Dallas
6Washington
7New York Giants

Wildcard Round
Miami over New York Jets
Cincinnati over Baltimore
Buffalo over Tennessee
Minnesota over New York Giants
San Francisco over Washington
Dallas over Carolina

Divisional Round
Kansas City over Buffalo
Miami over Cincinnati
Philadelphia over Dallas
San Francisco over Minnesota

Conference Championship
Miami over Kansas City
San Francisco over Philadelphia

Super Bowl 57 (Glendale, AZ)
Miami over San Francisco

November 14, 2022

PiRate Ratings–NFL for Week 11, November 17-21, 2022

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
Green BayTennessee3.41.82.0
AtlantaChicago4.24.24.1
BaltimoreCarolina13.813.413.7
BuffaloCleveland15.716.416.1
HoustonWashington-6.1-4.0-5.4
IndianapolisPhiladelphia-4.7-4.5-4.6
New EnglandN.Y. Jets4.03.64.5
New OrleansLA Rams2.82.12.7
N.Y. GiantsDetroit4.75.45.2
DenverLas Vegas3.74.43.6
LA ChargersKansas City-10.0-8.8-9.4
MinnesotaDallas-1.1-0.8-1.2
PittsburghCincinnati-5.1-4.9-5.2
ArizonaSan Francisco-6.6-6.5-6.5

This Week’s Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
Green BayTennessee40
AtlantaChicago46.5
BaltimoreCarolina44
BuffaloCleveland48
HoustonWashington38.5
IndianapolisPhiladelphia42
New EnglandN.Y. Jets42.5
New OrleansLA Rams42
N.Y. GiantsDetroit44.5
DenverLas Vegas40
LA ChargersKansas City55.5
MinnesotaDallas49
PittsburghCincinnati43.5
Arizona San Francisco44.5

Arizona vs. San Francisco game scheduled for Mexico City.

Teams With Byes

Miami
Jacksonville
Tampa Bay
Seattle

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo111.5111.3111.1111.323.56-3
New England103.1103.2103.8103.4205-4
N.Y. Jets101.6102.1101.8101.822.56-3
Miami100.9101.1100.9101.0237-3

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore105.3105.0105.4105.2226-3
Cincinnati104.5104.2104.6104.4245-4
Cleveland98.797.998.098.224.53-6
Pittsburgh96.996.896.996.919.53-6

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tennessee100.0100.5100.6100.3196-3
Indianapolis98.298.098.098.1194-5-1
Jacksonville96.497.496.996.9223-7
Houston89.390.990.090.019.51-7-1

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City110.5110.1110.2110.328.57-2
Denver99.6100.298.799.5153-6
Las Vegas98.998.898.198.6252-7
LA Chargers97.598.397.897.9275-4

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas106.5106.1106.9106.5236-3
Philadelphia105.4105.0105.1105.2238-1
Washington97.997.397.897.7195-5
N.Y. Giants95.996.996.896.5197-2

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Minnesota102.4102.3102.8102.5268-1
Green Bay100.499.399.599.7214-6
Detroit94.294.594.694.425.53-6
Chicago93.393.793.593.521.53-7

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay103.6102.8102.8103.120.55-5
New Orleans99.097.898.298.3223-7
Atlanta94.594.994.794.7254-6
Carolina94.094.294.194.1224-6

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
San Francisco104.0104.1104.2104.1205-4
Seattle99.199.3100.499.622.56-4
LA Rams99.298.698.598.8203-6
Arizona97.497.697.697.524.54-6

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1Kansas City
2Miami
3Baltimore
4Tennessee
5New York Jets
6Buffalo
7Cincinnati
NFC Seeding
1Minnesota
2Philadelphia
3San Francisco
4Tampa Bay
5New York Giants
6Dallas
7Seattle

Wildcard Round
Miami over Cincinnati
Baltimore over Buffalo
New York Jets over Tennessee
Philadelphia over Seattle
Dallas over San Francisco
New York Giants over Tampa Bay

Divisional Round
Kansas City over New York Jets
Miami over Baltimore
Minnesota over New York Giants
Philadelphia over Dallas

Conference Championship
Kansas City over Miami
Minnesota over Philadelphia

Super Bowl 57 (Glendale, AZ)
Kansas City over Minnesota

November 7, 2022

PiRate Ratings NFL For Week 10–November 10-14, 2022

This Week’s Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
CarolinaAtlanta0.80.40.4
Tampa BaySeattle4.53.21.8
BuffaloMinnesota14.915.014.5
ChicagoDetroit1.82.32.3
Kansas CityJacksonville17.516.116.9
MiamiCleveland0.51.61.2
N.Y. GiantsHouston9.48.89.6
PittsburghNew Orleans-1.4-0.6-1.0
TennesseeDenver2.92.74.3
Las VegasIndianapolis6.26.56.0
Green BayDallas-3.4-4.0-4.7
LA RamsArizona7.56.76.8
San FranciscoLA Chargers9.99.410.3
PhiladelphiaWashington13.814.114.0

This Week’s Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
CarolinaAtlanta48
Tampa Bay Seattle44
BuffaloMinnesota47.5
ChicagoDetroit45
Kansas CityJacksonville51.5
MiamiCleveland45.5
N.Y. GiantsHouston38.5
PittsburghNew Orleans43.5
TennesseeDenver35
Las VegasIndianapolis44
Green BayDallas42
LA RamsArizona44.5
San FranciscoLA Chargers48
PhiladelphiaWashington41

Tampa Bay vs/ Seattle game played in Munich, Germany

Teams With Byes

New England
N.Y.Jets
Baltimore
Cincinnati

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo112.9112.8112.7112.822.56-2
New England102.8102.9103.5103.1205-4
N.Y. Jets101.3101.8101.5101.522.56-3
Miami98.798.998.698.7226-3

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore105.0104.7105.1104.9226-3
Cincinnati104.2103.9104.3104.1245-4
Cleveland101.1100.3100.5100.623.53-5
Pittsburgh96.095.795.895.820.52-6

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tennessee99.8100.2100.3100.119.55-3
Indianapolis97.196.896.796.9193-5-1
Jacksonville96.397.396.796.822.53-6
Houston89.591.190.290.219.51-6-1

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City110.8110.4110.6110.6296-2
Las Vegas100.3100.399.7100.1252-6
Denver99.8100.599.099.815.53-5
LA Chargers97.398.097.397.627.55-3

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Philadelphia107.3107.0107.2107.222.58-0
Dallas106.5106.1106.9106.5226-2
N.Y. Giants95.996.996.896.5196-2
Washington96.095.395.795.718.54-5

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Minnesota101.0100.8101.2101.0257-1
Green Bay100.199.099.299.4203-6
Detroit94.194.294.294.224.52-6
Chicago93.494.093.993.820.53-6

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay103.6102.7102.5102.9214-5
New Orleans100.499.499.899.9233-6
Atlanta95.095.595.495.325.54-5
Carolina93.393.493.293.322.53-6

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
San Francisco104.2104.4104.7104.420.54-4
LA Rams100.7100.1100.1100.3203-5
Seattle99.199.4100.799.8236-3
Arizona96.296.496.396.324.53-6

Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1Kansas City
2Buffalo
3Baltimore
4Tennessee
5Miami
6N.Y. Jets
7LA Chargers

NFC Seeding
1Philadelphia
2Minnesota
3Seattle
4Tampa Bay
5Dallas
6N.Y. Giants
7San Francisco

Wildcard Round
Buffalo over LA Chargers
Baltimore over N.Y. Jets
Miami over Tennessee
Minnesota over San Francisco
Seattle over N.Y. Giants
Dallas over Tampa Bay

Divisional Round
Miami over Kansas City
Baltimore over Buffalo
Philadelphia over Dallas
Seattle over Minnesota

Conference Championship
Miami over Baltimore
Philadelphia over Seattle

Super Bowl 57 (Glendale, AZ)
Philadelphia over Miami

October 24, 2022

PiRate Ratings Pro Football–Week 8, October 27-31, 2022

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
Tampa BayBaltimore3.93.13.1
Jacksonville Denver-4.3-4.0-3.2
AtlantaCarolina3.94.34.8
DallasChicago15.213.814.7
DetroitMiami-3.0-2.7-2.6
MinnesotaArizona5.84.95.3
New OrleansLas Vegas-1.6-3.0-2.0
N.Y. JetsNew England1.31.80.8
PhiladelphiaPittsburgh13.312.813.0
HoustonTennessee-6.5-5.2-6.2
IndianapolisWashington6.46.96.7
LA RamsSan Francisco3.73.12.9
SeattleN.Y. Giants3.21.93.3
BuffaloGreen Bay14.115.615.3
ClevelandCincinnati-5.0-5.5-6.0

This Week’s Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
Tampa BayBaltimore44
Jacksonville Denver38
AtlantaCarolina45
DallasChicago38
DetroitMiami45
MinnesotaArizona47.5
New OrleansLas Vegas51
N.Y. JetsNew England45
PhiladelphiaPittsburgh43
HoustonTennessee41.5
IndianapolisWashington40.5
LA RamsSan Francisco41.5
SeattleN.Y. Giants42
BuffaloGreen Bay44.5
ClevelandCincinnati46.5

Note: Jacksonville vs. Denver game at Wembley Stadium in London.

Teams With Bye Weeks

Kansas City

LA Chargers

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo114.2114.3114.5114.3235-1
New England100.9100.9101.5101.121.53-4
N.Y. Jets100.2100.8100.3100.423.55-2
Miami98.698.798.498.6204-3

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Cincinnati106.1105.7106.2106.0234-3
Baltimore103.4103.1103.3103.3224-3
Cleveland98.697.797.798.023.52-5
Pittsburgh96.296.096.296.120.52-5

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tennessee99.299.699.599.4214-2
Indianapolis99.098.898.898.9213-3-1
Jacksonville95.296.295.595.622.52-5
Houston89.791.490.390.420.51-4-1

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City110.8110.4110.8110.729.55-2
Las Vegas104.2104.4103.9104.226.52-4
Denver99.5100.298.799.515.52-5
LA Chargers96.897.596.697.028.54-3

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Philadelphia106.9106.4106.7106.722.56-0
Dallas105.9105.3106.1105.820.55-2
N.Y. Giants96.898.097.997.6196-1
Washington95.694.895.195.219.53-4

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay101.9100.6100.9101.121.53-4
Minnesota100.9100.5100.9100.7245-1
Chicago93.794.594.494.217.53-4
Detroit93.093.293.093.1251-5

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay104.2103.3103.4103.6223-4
New Orleans99.698.498.999.024.52-5
Atlanta95.496.096.395.9253-4
Carolina94.094.293.994.0203-4

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
LA Rams102.6102.1102.0102.2213-3
San Francisco101.9102.0102.2102.020.53-4
Arizona97.898.398.298.123.53-4
Seattle96.996.998.297.4234-3

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1Buffalo
2Kansas City
3Cincinnati
4Tennessee
5Baltimore
6N.Y. Jets
7Miami

NFC Seeding
1Philadelphia
2Minnesota
3Seattle
4Atlanta
5N.Y. Giants
6Dallas
7LA Rams

Wildcard Round
Kansas City over Miami
Cincinnati over N.Y. Jets
Baltimore over Tennessee
LA Rams over Minnesota
Seattle over Dallas
N.Y. Giants over Atlanta

Divisional Round
Buffalo over Baltimore
Kansas City over Cincinnati
LA Rams over Philadelphia
Seattle over N.Y. Giants

Conference Championship
Buffalo over Kansas City
Seattle over LA Rams

Super Bowl 57 (Glendale, AZ)
Buffalo over Seattle

October 20, 2022

PiRate Picks–October 20, 2022

A Fool’s Folly

As we always forewarn every week on this particular feature, do not use this entry as real money wagering reference material. This is purely for entertainment purposes, and this season has been a lot more entertaining to those that like comedies of errors. Last week’s picks went 3-3, which resulted in a minor loss. This week, we go with five selections, all against the spread, and a couple swimming against our normal current. Normally, we are more interested in the numbers than the names on our selections. This week, we are choosing five games where we think our pick has been undervalued. It is not our forte, but then our forte needs reinforcing.

Selection #1: Ball St. -2 1/2 over Eastern Michigan

This goes against everything we look for in making a selection. EMU has been playing hot and cold all season, and they are actually due to be hot this week. However, we think that Ball State is 7 to 10 points better, so we are taking the Cardinals as a short favorite. We considered bringing out the big 10-point teaser play with this game included to make it BSU +7 1/2, but there just weren’t two other games to combine it with to our liking.

Selection #2: Ohio +3 vs. Northern Illinois

We’d like this a lot more at +3 1/2, but we didn’t make the selection when it briefly was that number. Ohio has improved by 10 points since the start of the year, while NIU has been mediocre, and the Huskies are not playing up to their talent level. The MAC East is definitely up for grabs, and the Bobcats are in the mix. We believe Ohio will win this game outright.

Selection #3: Ole Miss + 1 1/2 vs. LSU

The Rebels have not had a lot of success in Baton Rouge, last winning there in 2008. Ole Miss has a chance to win the SEC West with Alabama coming to the Grove in November. LSU is coming off an impressive road win at Florida, and we believe the odds have been moved too many points in the Tigers’ favor based on these perceptions. Ole Miss has lapses in most of their games, but then they find their mark and go on big scoring runs, almost like a basketball team. Our belief here is that LSU might have the lead in the second half, before the Rebels score two or three times to win the game.

Selection #4: Purdue + 2 1/2 vs. Wisconsin

This was the game that had us wait to put our picks out, and it never went to 3 points during the time we isolated on it. This game may be a must-win game for the Badgers’ bowl hopes this year. Losing at Michigan State left UW with a thin margin in the hunt for a 6-6 record. On the other hand, Purdue is now squarely in the Big Ten West race with Illinois and can become bowl eligible with a win. As we said above, this game and pointspread goes against all we normally play, but maybe that’s a good thing in this strange year.

Selection #5: Penn St. -4 vs. Minnesota

Again, this is another against the current play. Normally, we would not consider a 4-point favorite coming off a deflating loss as a playable game. However, in this case, we believe the Nittany Lions might win this game by double digits. They had the third quarter lead at Michigan, and then the Wolverines proved too strong. Minnesota has not yet righted the ship after losing Tanner Morgan for the Purdue game. Morgan’s return didn’t propel the Gophers against surprising Illinois last week. Additionally, Morgan exited last week’s game with a blow to the head, and while we expect him to play this week, he won’t be 100% healthy. This looks like the perfect setting for a James Franklin-coached team to rebound with an impressive win to make next week’s very big game meaningful. Jimmy Frank will not led his team look ahead to the Buckeyes.

October 17, 2022

PiRate Ratings–NFL for Week 7, October 20-24, 2022

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
ArizonaNew Orleans0.62.51.5
BaltimoreCleveland8.08.78.9
CarolinaTampa Bay-10.9-9.8-10.6
CincinnatiAtlanta13.011.711.6
DallasDetroit15.414.215.3
JacksonvilleN.Y. Giants2.12.11.5
TennesseeIndianapolis2.22.72.3
WashingtonGreen Bay-4.4-3.9-4.3
DenverN.Y. Jets2.93.11.9
Las VegasHouston17.515.616.2
LA ChargersSeattle6.98.05.6
San FranciscoKansas City-2.2-1.7-1.7
MiamiPittsburgh5.45.65.2
New EnglandChicago15.314.715.6

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
ArizonaNew Orleans45
BaltimoreCleveland45.5
CarolinaTampa Bay44
CincinnatiAtlanta47.5
DallasDetroit47.5
JacksonvilleN.Y. Giants41.5
TennesseeIndianapolis44
WashingtonGreen Bay40.5
DenverN.Y. Jets41
Las VegasHouston46
LA ChargersSeattle49.5
San FranciscoKansas City47.5
MiamiPittsburgh42.5
New EnglandChicago38

Teams With Byes This Week

Buffalo
Philadelphia
Minnesota
LA Rams

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo113.9114.0114.2114.0235-1
New England103.5103.5104.3103.8213-3
N.Y. Jets99.7100.299.899.924.54-2
Miami98.698.798.498.6213-3

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Cincinnati105.6105.0105.4105.3233-3
Baltimore103.7103.4103.6103.6223-3
Cleveland98.697.797.798.023.52-4
Pittsburgh96.296.096.296.121.52-4

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Indianapolis99.699.599.699.6223-2-1
Tennessee98.999.299.099.0223-2
Jacksonville95.796.896.196.222.52-4
Houston89.791.690.590.6201-3-1

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City108.8108.4108.7108.6284-2
Las Vegas104.2104.2103.7104.0261-4
Denver100.0100.899.2100.016.52-4
LA Chargers98.999.898.899.227.54-2

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Philadelphia106.6106.1106.4106.422.56-0
Dallas105.5104.7105.5105.221.54-2
N.Y. Giants96.697.797.697.3195-1
Washington95.394.594.694.819.52-4

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay102.7101.4101.9102.0213-3
Minnesota100.6100.2100.6100.4245-1
Detroit93.193.593.393.3261-4
Chicago91.191.991.691.6172-4

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay106.3105.4105.7105.8233-3
New Orleans99.998.699.399.3232-4
Atlanta95.696.496.896.224.53-3
Carolina92.993.192.692.9212-4

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
San Francisco103.6103.7104.0103.719.53-3
LA Rams102.3101.8101.7101.9213-3
Arizona97.598.197.897.8222-4
Seattle94.594.395.794.9223-3

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1Buffalo
2Kansas City
3Cincinnati
4Indianapolis
5LA Chargers
6N.Y. Jets
7New England
NFC Seeding
1Philadelphia
2Minnesota
3LA Rams
4Atlanta
5N.Y. Giants
6Dallas
7Tampa Bay

Wildcard Round
New England over Kansas City
Cincinnati over N.Y. Jets
LA Chargers over Indianapolis
Tampa Bay over Minnesota
LA Rams over Dallas
N.Y. Giants over Atlanta

Divisional Round
Buffalo over New England
LA Chargers over Cincinnati
Philadelphia over Tampa Bay
LA Rams over N.Y. Giants

Conference Championship
Buffalo over LA Chargers
Philadelphia over LA Rams

Super Bowl 57 (Glendale, AZ)
Buffalo over Philadelphia

September 29, 2022

PiRate Picks–September 29-October 1, 2022

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:38 am

If you follow this weekly feature, then you must realize at this point in the season that the picks made here have put us in an untenable position. Through four full weeks and one partial fifth week in the college football season, we have issued 21 selections. 16 of them have won, and five of them have been at odds exceeding even money. Our imaginary $1,000 starting account has ballooned to $1,906.19 after going 3-0 last week with two of those three wins bringing better than +130 parlay payouts. That 16-5 record is even more ridiculous when you consider that we had one week where we were 1-4. In all the other weeks, our pretend wagering selections are 15-1! Meanwhile, we made comments in two of those weeks that we did not particularly like the slate of games available for those weeks. All this should tell you that if a situation is obviously untenable, don’t make any large gambles on the situation continuing to be as successful or even successful at all in the future. If 76.2% winners were the norm, and the wagers were real, we would be banned from wagering at most of the books and definitely greatly limited in the amount we could wager at those that did not ban us. Only a small minority of the big-time players ever get limited or banned. That’s why in all honesty, the selections going forward are almost sure to disappoint until the percentages normalize. Think of our selections being like the Cleveland Indians beginning the 1966 baseball season at 14-1 and then 27-10 near the completion of the first quarter of the season. The Indians held a substantial lead over Baltimore, but Leon Wagner was not Frank Robinson. Robby would go on to win the Triple Crown, and the Orioles would pass Cleveland with ease and go on to win the AL pennant in a breeze. The PiRate Ratings are Cleveland. Maybe, our 1954 is out there some day, but there is no reason to believe that it is this year.

Now, that we have a clear conscience, here are our picks for this week. Remember: we never wager real money on these selections, and we suggest you follow this lead. If you are a professional wagering maven, then we know you only read this weekly feature as supplemental information for your other research.

Selection #1: Iowa +10 1/2 vs. Michigan

This play is all about the number. At 9 1/2, we wouldn’t play it. We probably wouldn’t play it at 13 1/2 either. Michigan is clearly better than Iowa, but can they win by double digits in Iowa City when the Hawkeyes’ offense is starting to show signs of respectability? Iowa might be able to control the ball for 32 or more minutes in this game, and Michigan has played one above average team at home with no road games. At 10 1/2, we get 39% of the spreads most likely for a game to have, including nine of the top 15 spreads in college football. Our internal (not the PiRate Ratings) quick compare system shows this game to be a maximum of 8 points in Michigan’s favor and only about a 65% chance that the Maize and Blue will win the game by any amount. We see this being a 27-20 game for the Wolverines, and it wouldn’t be a big shock if Iowa pulled off the upset.

Selection #2: Penn State & Northwestern Under 52 1/2

James Franklin has this team believing in itself, and we have little doubt that the Nittany Lions will win this game with relative ease, but we also believe the first quarter and some of the second quarter of this game will be played conservatively as Penn State tries some new wrinkles. Northwestern’s history of being good in even-numbered years and rebuilding in odd-numbered years may have come to an end, as the Wildcats look no better than they were last year, and their win over Nebraska isn’t worth much. The NU offense isn’t likely to keep the scoreboard operator busy. We think this could be a 34-10 game, maybe a 38-7 game.

Selection #3: UNLV and New Mexico Over 42 1/2

This was a late addition to our selections this week, as the total dropped by a full point on Wednesday, and we think it has been moved too much. There are some middling plays going on with this game. At 43 1/2, it was too close to our projection of 28-17 and 45 points. Usually, we like a game to differ by three points or more in the total, but when it’s this low, 2 1/2 points are enough to make a play. The only concern is that the Lobos are scoring points of fewer than normal total yards gained. However, UNLV’s offense is better than New Mexico’s defense, and we also think there is a chance that the Rebels could score more then 28 points in this game.

Selection #4: Minnesota & Purdue Over 51 1/2

If you follow this weekly feature for any amount of time, you will probably see a trend toward playing the Under on more totals than the Over, but this week, it is an even split. We respect Minnesota’s excellent start to the season, but their defense has yet to be tested by a Power 5 competent offense, as it will this week. This isn’t Drew Brees bringing the Spoilermakers to The Cities, but this also isn’t the Bobby Bell Gophers of 1960 and 1961. Our internal rating shows PU will top 24 points in this game, but their lack of a power running game might prevent the Boilermakers from scoring the one extra TD needed to win this game. Minnesota probably will top 30 points. At 34-27, that’s 9 1/2 more points than needed to satisfy this play.

Selection #5: Oklahoma & TCU Under 68 1/2

This was actually the one total that jumped off the page when we first saw it. Oklahoma is coming off an upset loss to Kansas State where they gave up more than 40 points. TCU is averaging 46.3 points per game but hasn’t played a real defense yet. We suspect that defensive-oriented Sooner coach Brent Venables will concentrate his efforts this week on giving his defense more confidence by playing this game a little more conservatively. Meanwhile, TCU will experience some difficulty trying to consistently move the ball with short passing plays. We think the total for this game will be 60 or less. A final score of 34-21 is expected.

Selection #6: Money Line Parlay @ +176.22

Kent State over Ohio U

Wyoming over San Jose St.

The key game for us this week is the Wyoming-San Jose State game in Laramie. We believe the wrong team is favored. The Cowboys have been a different team at home in altitude as opposed to the road, and San Jose State is coming into a weather situation they have not had a chance to prepare for in the Bay Area. This game could be played in a windy rainstorm, possibly a thunderstorm, with a chance that it could be delayed one or more times. Wyoming has an advantage if the running game must be used more in the quarters where the wind is in the face of the offense. We are looking for Wyoming to win this one outright by 5 to 10 points.

We didn’t want to play Wyoming straight up for 11-10 odds, so we looked to a coupling game that would ramp it up to better than +130, and we found it in the Kent State-Ohio game. The Golden Flashes are at least 10 points better than the Bobcats, but the Money Line was only -450, and combining it with the underdog selection, it makes this parlay an attractive +176.22.

Selection #7: Money Line Parlay @ +157.22

Kansas State over Texas Tech

North Carolina over Virginia Tech

Western Kentucky over Troy

Both teams won big games last week in the Kansas State-Texas Tech match-up. But, the Red Raiders beat their most hated rival. TTU rarely gets the respect in the Lone Star State by the fans of the Longhorns. At the same time, Kansas State has used a big win over a ranked opponent to propel themselves to bigger and better things. Add in the factor that our internal rating shows the Wildcats to be nine points better, and this is an attractive part of a parlay for us.

Neither North Carolina nor Virginia Tech are going to go on big runs to finish with fat won-loss records this year. In fact, we think the Hokies are looking at 5-7 or even 4-8, while the Tar Heels are maybe looking at 7-5 and a minor bowl game. We are looking at a 35-28 win for Mack Brown’s squad.

In Bowling Green, Kentucky, the Hilltoppers have been known as a basketball school with a neat mascot, but their football team should not be overlooked this year. Following a 73-0 win over possibly the worst FBS team in Florida International, they step up to play another under-the-radar team in Troy. This used to be a fierce rivlary game when both were Sun Belt Conference members, and we expect a close, hard-fought game with a lot of offensive action. Our selection of WKU here comes about due to an old theorem of ours from the 1970s that states that when a team easily slaughters a weaker team in a home game one week and then plays at home again the following week, they tend to continue to play near the best of their abilities. We think WKU wins this close game, maybe by just a field goal to five points.

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