The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 15, 2017

Red-White-Blue Ratings For Thursday’s NCAA Tournament Games

 

Team Team Red White Blue
Notre Dame Princeton 6 6 2
Virginia UNC-Wilmington 7 9 9
Butler Winthrop 10 9 10
Gonzaga South Dakota St. 24 21 15
West Virginia Bucknell 13 12 11
Florida East Tennessee St. 10 12 13
Minnesota Middle Tennessee 2 1 3
Northwestern Vanderbilt -1 -1 -5
Maryland Xavier -1 -1 -1
Villanova Mount St. Mary’s 22 23 21
Saint Mary’s VCU 5 6 4
Purdue Vermont 9 9 5
Florida St. Florida Gulf Coast 13 14 11
Wisconsin Virginia Tech 4 4 4
Arizona North Dakota 15 15 14
Iowa St. Nevada 6 6 6
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December 22, 2016

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–December 23-26, 2016

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:26 pm

Our winning streak continued last week, as we won one of the two parlays.  By only playing parlays at better than EVEN money odds, simply going .500 guarantees a profitable result.

Last week’s 1-1 record returned $286 on our $200 investment for a return on investment of 43%.  For the year now, we have invested $6,300 (63 parlays at $100 each), and we have seen a return of $7,074 for an ROI of 12%.

Once again, we go only with NFL selections this week, and we go with two parlays.  The Thursday night game is not one of the selections, so we are coming out with this a bit later tonight.

Remember this important fact: These are presented to you just for fun.  We do not actually wager real money on these selections, and we urge you to think twice about doing so.  We have nothing to lose in our mythical investment’s, while you could lose your mortgage payment with a couple of bad weeks.

Okay, so here are our two picks for this week.  As you can see, all six teams in these parlays have a lot to play for in week 16.

December 23-26, 2016
1. NFL Parlay at +196
Buffalo over Miami
Tennessee over Jacksonville
Green Bay over Minnesota
 
2. NFL Parlay at +218
Washington over Chicago
Kansas City over Denver
Seattle over Arizona

 

November 15, 2016

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Week 11: November 17-21, 2016

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
New England 109.5 108.1 110.5 109.4 67 42
Buffalo 103.4 103.5 103.9 103.6 64 40
Miami 97.9 98.2 98.0 98.0 60 38
N. Y. Jets 97.7 96.6 98.1 97.5 58 40
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Pittsburgh 102.3 102.3 102.9 102.5 62 41
Cincinnati 101.8 101.5 102.0 101.8 61 41
Baltimore 99.2 100.5 98.9 99.5 61 39
Cleveland 88.2 89.0 87.8 88.3 55 33
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Houston 98.1 99.0 97.9 98.3 61 37
Tennessee 97.8 99.1 97.5 98.1 61 37
Indianapolis 97.8 99.0 97.4 98.1 62 36
Jacksonville 92.9 94.5 92.2 93.2 58 35
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Denver 105.6 104.3 105.3 105.0 63 42
Kansas City 104.3 104.2 104.8 104.4 64 40
Oakland 100.3 100.7 100.7 100.6 66 35
San Diego 99.6 100.4 99.4 99.8 65 35
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Dallas 103.6 102.7 104.2 103.5 63 41
Philadelphia 103.5 101.9 103.3 102.9 63 40
Washington 100.6 100.3 100.7 100.5 62 39
N.Y. Giants 99.4 99.0 99.6 99.3 62 37
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Minnesota 102.6 101.9 102.4 102.3 59 43
Detroit 99.2 98.9 99.1 99.1 61 38
Green Bay 99.1 99.2 98.7 99.0 62 37
Chicago 93.6 92.4 93.2 93.1 56 37
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Atlanta 103.5 104.5 103.5 103.8 69 35
Carolina 103.1 103.0 103.1 103.1 62 41
New Orleans 100.2 101.3 100.3 100.6 67 34
Tampa Bay 97.0 97.5 96.7 97.1 61 36
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Seattle 107.7 105.2 108.4 107.1 63 44
Arizona 104.2 102.7 104.3 103.7 65 39
Los Angeles 98.8 99.5 98.7 99.0 57 42
San Francisco 89.6 90.8 88.9 89.8 54 36

This Week’s Games

November 17-21, 2016
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Carolina New Orleans 5.9 4.7 5.8 55
Cincinnati Buffalo 0.9 0.5 0.6 46
Cleveland Pittsburgh -9.6 -10.8 -12.6 45
Dallas Baltimore 7.4 5.2 8.3 46
Detroit Jacksonville 9.3 7.4 9.9 48
Indianapolis Tennessee 3.0 2.9 2.9 52
Kansas City Tampa Bay 10.3 9.7 10.9 51
Minnesota Arizona 1.4 2.2 1.1 42
New York Giants Chicago 8.8 9.6 9.4 46
Los Angeles Miami 3.9 4.3 3.7 39
San Francisco New England -16.9 -14.3 -18.6 45
Seattle Philadelphia 7.2 6.3 8.1 44
Washington Green Bay 4.5 4.1 5.0 50
Oakland (m) Houston 5.2 1.7 2.8 57
           
(m) Game played in Mexico City

If Playoffs Began Today

AFC
1 New England
2 Kansas City
3 Houston
4 Baltimore
5 Oakland
6 Denver
   
NFC
1 Dallas
2 Seattle
3 Atlanta
4 Detroit
5 N.Y. Giants
6 Washington

PiRate Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 New England
2 Kansas City
3 Indianapolis
4 Baltimore
5 Oakland
6 Denver
   
NFC Seeding
1 Seattle
2 Dallas
3 Atlanta
4 Detroit
5 Washington
6 N.Y. Giants

Projected Playoff Results

Wildcard Round
Denver over Indianapolis
Oakland over Baltimore
N.Y. Giants over Atlanta
Washington over Detroit
 
Divisional Round
New England over Denver
Oakland over Kansas City
Seattle over N.Y. Giants
Dallas over Washington
 
Conference Championship
Oakland over New England
Dallas over Seattle
 
Super Bowl 51
Dallas over Oakland

 

November 1, 2016

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Week 9: November 3-7, 2016

Our First Look At The Playoff Hunt
We like to wait for the first half of the season to come to its end before beginning our playoff projections, as it is virtually useless to start it earlier than the halfway point. With bye weeks, this is sort of the 7 1/2 game point and not the exact midway point, but then next week will be past halfway.

The playoff race is still wide open for most of the teams. In the AFC, Cleveland is the only team with zero chance to make the playoffs. In the NFC, San Francisco is the only team with virtually no chance. That means 30 teams are still alive.
At the other end of the perspective, New England is basically the only team that is close to 100% assured to make the playoffs. This creates a wide open second half race for 11 of the 12 spots among 29 teams.

Let’s start with the old proverbial “If the season ended today” look.

AFC
East: New England #1 Seed
North: Pittsburgh #4 Seed
South: Houston #3 Seed
West: Oakland #2 Seed
Wildcard: Kansas City #5 Seed
Wildcard: Denver #6 Seed

NFC
East: Dallas #1 Seed
North: Minnesota #2 Seed
South: Atlanta #4 Seed
West: Seattle #3 Seed
Wildcard: Green Bay #5 Seed
Wildcard: New York #6 Seed

In the AFC, the wildcard teams have just two losses, and no other competitor is within a game, as the 7th and 8th seeds this week are Tennessee and Buffalo, both at 4-4. The NFC is much closer, as the 4-3 Packers and Giants hold a precarious place on their wildcard spots. There are two other three-loss teams in Philadelphia and Washington, and there are four additional four-loss teams just one game back.

Here is our look at each division at this point in the year.

AFC
East
New England has this division wrapped up even if Tom Brady were to become injured. The Patriots are up three games, and they would have to go 2-6 in the second half to surrender this division to any division rival. Rex Ryan fired his offensive coordinator after a Monday Night game in which the Bills’ defense was embarrassed. The Bills’ defense keeps stubbing its toes week after week, and the offense cannot score enough points to win consistently. This has the look of an 8-8 team that will miss the playoffs. The Dolphins and Jets don’t have the talent to get to 9-7, and it will probably take a 10-6 or better record to become a wildcard this year.

North
Pittsburgh is a very weak 4-3 team with Ben Roethlisberger out. If he miraculously recovers from his knee surgery and plays in the next week or two, his already weak scrambling skills will be that much worse, and the Steelers don’t have an offensive line capable of sustaining the pass rush long enough for Big Ben to survey the field like he tends to do. Thus, we believe that 3-4-1 Cincinnati and 3-4 Baltimore are still very much in this race. This could be the year where it only takes eight wins to earn the division title, whether it be Pittsburgh or Baltimore at 8-8 or Cincinnati at 8-7-1.

South
Can Houston’s defense overcome its inconsistent offense and hang on to the division lead? Tennessee started 1-3 and is now 4-4, but the Titans need another wide receiver to become potent enough to storm past the Texans. Indianapolis and Jacksonville have not shown any tendency to play consecutive games like they deserve to make the playoffs, so for now, we believe Houston will be a weak 9-7 division winner.

West
We cannot find anything to fault the three top teams in this division. Oakland has the easiest schedule of the trio, but they also have the weakest defense of the three. We forecast that Denver will go 12-4, Kansas City will go 11-5, and Oakand will go 10-6, all three making the playoffs.

NFC
East
Dallas has the overall best record in the conference, so could Jason Garrett (Jerry Jones) be foolish enough to bring Tony Romo back to the starting quarterback job when he is healthy enough to play again? Actually, there is precedent, and one quarterback from the past can be used as an example.
Earl Morrall was the backup quarterback for the Baltimore Colts in 1968, when legendary great Johnny Unitas could not get healthy enough to play. Morrall earned the NFL MVP Award and guided the Colts to the NFL’s best record at 13-1 for Coach Don Shula, and then he led the team to back-to-back playoff wins to win the 1968 NFL Championship by beating the Vikings and Browns.
In the Super Bowl, Unitas was healthy enough to play again, but Shula went with the arm that got him there. Morrall performed poorly against the New York Jets’ quick defense, and by the time Shula inserted Unitas into the game, it was too late for Johnny U to bring the Colts back.
Four years later, Shula was the head coach of the Miami Dolphins. His start quarterback Bob Griese went down to injury early in the season and was done until January. Once again, Shula turned to the backup, which just so happened to be Morrall again. Morrall repeated the 1968 performance, winning the league MVP award as he guided Miami to a perfect 14-0 record. By the time the playoffs started, Griese was healthy enough to play again. Using his past experience with the Colts, Shula placed Griese back in the starting slot, and Griese guided the Dolphins to the Super Bowl title.

There is a big difference between that Dolphins’ team and this Dallas team. Miami only needed a signal caller that was competent at carrying out ball fakes while handing the ball to the league’s best fullback in Larry Csonka and one of the top halfbacks in Mercury Morris. Miami won by passing the ball about a dozen times per game, letting its league best defense carry the team. Dallas cannot get to the Super Bowl by riding its defense and handing the ball to Ezekiel Elliott 30 times a game. They need a pass rush, and Elliott needs a QB that is a threat to fake to him and run the ball in the opposite direction, which is not Romo.

The rest of the division can all come back and beat out Dallas if the Cowboys falter in the second half, or if Romo becomes the starter again. All four teams are good enough to win any of the other NFC divisions this year, but they will beat up on each other and be lucky to provide one wildcard member much less two. Washington looks to us to be the best of the other three, but the Redskins have a tough second half schedule. Philadelphia has the rookie quarterback, and the Giants have a defense that hasn’t gelled this year, but their offense can score enough points to get to 10-6 with a little luck.

North
There’s a twin personality in the Twin Cities, as Minnesota has seen the best of times for five weeks and the worst of times during the last two weeks. The Vikings’ offense looks easy to defend without Adrian Peterson, and Sam Bradford has shown he is closer to Marcia Brady than Tom Brady the last two weeks. Even if the Vikings go 9-7, they could still win the division, because Green Bay is uber-wounded, Detroit is mediocre on both sides of the ball, and Chicago is Chicago.

South
This division looked like Atlanta’s in a runaway a couple weeks ago, but the Saints and Panthers may not be dead just yet. With Drew Brees guiding New Orleans to 30 point games, the Saints can recover to a 10-6 record in the second half. Carolina is still a mystery team, but the Panthers looked like the 2015 NFC Champions last week and could easily go on a long winning streak. Tampa Bay is not yet there and needs another year at the minimum.

West
Seattle will win this by default. Arizona might fall to third place in this division, and the Rams match the personality of Mr. 8 and 8, Jeff Fisher. The 49ers could be pressed to win another game this year, as Chip Kelly does not have the pieces in place to run his system. Whereas just a couple players kneel before the game, the entire team finds itself on the ground for the next 60 minutes of action.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
New England 110.7 109.2 111.8 110.6 67 44
Buffalo 103.2 103.4 103.7 103.4 63 40
N. Y. Jets 98.6 97.1 99.3 98.3 58 40
Miami 96.8 97.3 96.7 96.9 59 38
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Pittsburgh 103.9 103.4 104.8 104.0 63 41
Cincinnati 102.0 101.7 102.2 102.0 61 41
Baltimore 97.4 99.2 96.8 97.8 61 37
Cleveland 90.3 90.8 90.2 90.4 57 33
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Houston 98.1 99.0 97.9 98.3 61 37
Indianapolis 96.3 97.8 95.7 96.6 62 35
Tennessee 96.1 97.6 95.7 96.5 58 39
Jacksonville 92.4 94.2 91.5 92.7 58 35
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Denver 107.1 105.3 107.0 106.4 63 43
Kansas City 104.4 104.2 105.0 104.5 65 40
San Diego 100.4 101.1 100.3 100.6 65 36
Oakland 98.6 99.4 98.8 98.9 64 35
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Philadelphia 104.0 102.0 103.7 103.2 63 40
Dallas 101.4 100.8 101.7 101.3 61 40
Washington 100.3 100.1 100.3 100.2 62 38
N.Y. Giants 98.6 98.5 98.6 98.6 62 37
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Minnesota 103.8 102.8 103.9 103.5 60 44
Green Bay 102.3 101.9 102.2 102.1 63 39
Detroit 98.3 98.2 98.0 98.2 61 37
Chicago 95.4 94.0 95.1 94.9 56 39
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Carolina 103.4 103.1 103.5 103.3 61 42
Atlanta 102.6 104.0 102.9 103.1 68 35
New Orleans 99.0 100.4 98.9 99.4 65 34
Tampa Bay 96.5 96.9 96.1 96.5 60 37
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Seattle 106.5 104.0 107.1 105.8 62 44
Arizona 105.1 103.4 105.4 104.6 66 39
Los Angeles 98.5 99.6 98.2 98.8 57 42
San Francisco 90.1 91.3 89.4 90.3 53 37

This Week’s Games

November 3-7, 2016
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Tampa Bay Atlanta -3.6 -4.6 -4.3 55
Baltimore Pittsburgh -4.0 -1.7 -5.5 46
Cleveland Dallas -8.6 -7.5 -9.0 47
Kansas City Jacksonville 15.0 13.0 16.5 49
Miami New York Jets 1.2 2.9 0.4 40
Minnesota Detroit 8.0 7.1 8.4 42
New York Giants Philadelphia -3.4 -1.5 -3.1 50
Los Angeles Carolina -1.4 0.1 -1.8 35
San Francisco New Orleans -5.4 -5.6 -6.0 48
Green Bay Indianapolis 9.0 7.1 9.5 53
San Diego Tennessee 7.3 6.5 7.8 50
Oakland Denver -5.5 -2.9 -5.2 51
Seattle Buffalo 6.8 4.1 6.7 42

 

 

 

October 25, 2016

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Week 8: October 27-31, 2016

A Look At The Metrics
Without getting into far advanced metrics that would bore all but one or two of our readers, let’s take a look at some of the main statistics every football fan is familiar with and try to determine what is affecting NFL games the most this year.

Let’s go through each big recognizable statistic and see if we can discover where the top tier in each stat is winning and in line for the playoffs, and which stats appear to mean very little this season.
Of course, we will throw out things like wins and losses and scoring margins. Obviously, these are the most important stats to determine who is performing the best so far, but we cannot look at just wins and losses and scoring margin and determine that a team is bound to win their next game or lose their next game based on these factors. Later in the season, won-loss records and scoring margins can be used to determine future wins and losses, but still there are times when these stats are not perfect. We won’t even include the fact that a team that has clinched its division and has nothing to play for in Week 17 might treat a game against a 7-8 team like an exhibition. We are talking about games when all teams are still trying to win.

We will also throw out things like Adjusted Value over Average or Air Yards per Pass Attempt. These statistics are great for individual achievements, but a forward pass includes blocking, the quarterback throwing accurately, and intelligently, the receiver catching the ball, and then the receiver looking for downfield blocks and empty space to run.

Something that should be considered is how the yards are gained. Two teams can average four yards per rush, but they may have wide ranges with how they average four yards per rush. Let’s say Team A runs for 16 yards on the first attempt and then gains nothing at all on the next three attempts. If Team A begins at their own 25 yard line and runs four consecutive times for 16,0,0,and 0 yards, they will face 4th and 10 from their own 41 yard line.

Let’s say Team B runs for exactly four yards on each attempt. Four plays later, they will also be at their own 41 yard line, but unlike Team A that is having to punt on 4th and 10, Team B will have it 2nd and 6. Consistency of gaining more than what is needed on a play is more important than regular average. A big fullback might average just 2.9 yards per rush, but if he only carries the ball at the opponents’ two yard line and also on 3rd and 1 or 2 or 4th and 1, that 2.9 yards might make him the most valuable player on the team. Then, another player with a 4.8 yard rushing average might be almost worthless, because he frequently gets stopped short of the first down marker and then gets a 35-yard run just before halftime when the defense has a 7-man secondary and is in prevent, as that 35-yard run ends the half.

After looking at all the 2016 stats that are easy enough to understand, you can completely eliminate total offense, total defense, yards per rushing attempt by offense and versus defense, and yards per passing atttempt by offense and versus defense. There are teams in line to pick high in the 2017 draft that are doing quite well in these statistics, and there are teams that could receive home field advantage in the playoffs doing poorly in these statistics.

Does your team’s coach believe that you win by running the football to set up the pass and by stopping the run first? Chances are, your team is not doing well this season. Four teams are averaging around five yards per rush this season–Buffalo, Cleveland, Miami, and Tennessee. These four have a combined 10-18 record. One team averages less than three yards per rush–Minnesota with a 5-1 record.

Okay, so you say that stopping the run is what really counts? Then, explain why the New York Jets, Carolina Panthers, and Baltimore Ravens aren’t at the top of their divisions, since they stop the run cold. Meanwhile, the Oakland Raiders are surrendering five yards per rush and have a 5-2 record.

Let’s look at the passing game. Passing the ball and defending the pass have been more accurate in predicting the winners of NFL games in the last 10 years or so. It is definitely a better indicator this season than rushing, but it is still not overly accurate. You have division leaders Atlanta, New England, and Dallas among the league leaders in yards per pass attempt, but you also have Cincinnati, San Diego, Miami, and Detroit among the top of the charts.

Defensively, Denver and Minnesota are leading the way by allowing the fewest yards per pass attempt, but right with these two division leaders are Jacksonville, Arizona, the New York Giants, and Los Angeles.

So what statistic currently corresponds with the best with the won-lost records of the NFL? There is definitely one that stands out by itself as the most accurate after seven weeks. In fact, of the top 12 in this statistic, eight would be in the playoffs if the season ended today, and two of the other four would be within striking distance but currently are on the outside due to byes giving teams a half-game lead.

What is this statistic? It is turnover margin. Turnover margin has been much more important this year than in recent seasons. Minnesota leads the league in turnover margin. Oakland and Buffalo are tied for second. Following the top three in order are: Kansas City, Philadelphia, Denver, Dallas, Arizona, and New England. Not a single team has a losing record among this group.

At the other end, of the bottom 13, only two teams have winning records, and both are just 4-3. All eight last place teams in the divisions can be found in this dirty dozen.

The question becomes: “Can we use this stat to predict future results? Ah, therein lies the problem. The turnover margins tend to be the least predictable, even when you have Ryan Fitzpatrick or Case Keenum as your starting quarterback. Fitzpatrick might throw 10% of his passes to the wrong colored jersey for an entire month and then not throw one for a month. A ball carrier might fumble twice in one game and then go weeks without coughing it up.

That presents quite a dilemma when trying to pick winners and losers in the NFL this year. The only rational thing to do is go with underdogs that have positive turnover margins and against favorites with negative turnover margins. And then, don’t count on being all that successful this year.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
New England 108.9 107.3 109.8 108.7 65 44
Buffalo 104.3 104.6 105.0 104.6 63 42
N. Y. Jets 99.1 97.5 100.0 98.9 58 41
Miami 96.8 97.3 96.7 96.9 59 38
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Pittsburgh 103.9 103.4 104.8 104.0 63 41
Cincinnati 102.2 101.8 102.4 102.2 61 41
Baltimore 97.4 99.2 96.8 97.8 61 37
Cleveland 90.1 90.7 89.8 90.2 57 33
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Indianapolis 97.5 99.1 97.0 97.9 62 36
Houston 97.6 98.7 97.3 97.9 61 37
Tennessee 94.5 96.1 94.0 94.9 57 38
Jacksonville 94.3 96.0 93.5 94.6 59 36
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Denver 107.1 105.2 107.0 106.4 63 43
Kansas City 102.9 102.6 103.4 103.0 64 39
San Diego 100.6 101.4 100.5 100.8 65 36
Oakland 98.3 99.2 98.5 98.7 64 35
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Philadelphia 104.0 101.9 103.6 103.2 63 40
Dallas 101.4 100.9 101.8 101.4 61 40
Washington 100.1 100.0 100.1 100.1 62 38
N.Y. Giants 98.6 98.5 98.6 98.6 62 37
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Minnesota 106.5 105.3 106.8 106.2 62 44
Green Bay 102.5 102.0 102.3 102.3 63 39
Detroit 98.8 98.5 98.6 98.6 61 38
Chicago 92.9 91.7 92.4 92.4 54 38
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Atlanta 102.7 104.2 103.1 103.3 68 35
Carolina 101.9 102.0 101.8 101.9 60 42
New Orleans 97.7 99.5 97.3 98.2 64 34
Tampa Bay 96.8 97.1 96.4 96.8 60 37
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Seattle 107.5 104.6 108.4 106.8 63 44
Arizona 106.6 104.5 107.1 106.1 67 39
Los Angeles 98.5 99.6 98.2 98.8 57 42
San Francisco 90.1 91.3 89.4 90.3 53 37

 

This Week’s Games
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Tennessee Jacksonville 2.7 2.6 3.0 43
Cincinnati (*) Washington 2.1 1.8 2.3 44
Atlanta Green Bay 2.8 5.2 3.8 57
Buffalo New England -1.6 0.3 -1.8 44
Cleveland New York Jets -6.5 -4.3 -7.7 39
Houston Detroit 1.8 3.2 1.7 49
Indianapolis Kansas City -2.4 -0.5 -3.4 51
New Orleans Seattle -6.8 -2.1 -8.1 50
Tampa Bay Oakland 1.5 0.9 0.9 52
Denver San Diego 9.0 6.3 9.0 49
Carolina Arizona -1.2 1.0 -1.8 45
Dallas Philadelphia 0.4 2.0 1.2 46
Chicago Minnesota -10.6 -10.6 -11.4 35
           
(*) This game will be played in London

 

 

October 18, 2016

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Week 7: October 20-24, 2016

A Strange Season So Far

It may not mean all that much to you, but as far as our ratings go, this has been one of the strangest NFL seasons in a long time. Our three ratings usually begin to look close to identical by the midway point of the season, because certain constants exist in football. After factoring strength of schedule, when one team consistently gains 350 total yards and gives up 280 total yards, and this team scores one point for every 12 yards gained and gives up one point for every 13 yards gained, then on a neutral field against a perfectly average NFL opponent, that team is one touchdown better, and in 100 games, that team should be expected to beat the perfectly average team about 75 times.

The above stated paragraph has been consistently accurate for a long time, basically since the NFL featured 12 teams in the 1950’s. Other parts of the game, like turnovers, special teams, and penalties affect the game to an extent, but on the whole, when a team out-gains its opponents by an average of 350 to 280 yards per game and scores a point for every 12 yards while giving up a point for every 13 yards given up, over the long haul, all the teams with these stats and that played an average schedule should average 7 points more per game than they give up. Averaging 7 points more per game than your opponents usually makes you a playoff team in any era.

This season, has been an anomaly. There are always cases where one team out-gains another by 200 yards and loses the game due to a turnover margin of -3, or some big special teams play, or even a large discrepancy in penalty yardage (think pass interference on a long pass). Then, there is a frequent case where the eventual winning team runs for 200 yards and controls possession of the game for 38 minutes while moving to a 28-point lead. Then, the eventual losing team passes for 200 yards in the last 22 minutes and loses by 14 points.

It is just six weeks, but the norms are all messed up this season. Teams that move the ball well all day are losing too many times to teams that look inept for half the game and win on data that usually does not contribute as much to the outcome as it has been contributing this year.

There is a second factor this year. Consistency has been thrown out the window. The Cincinnati Bengals look like Super Bowl contenders one week and like an expansion franchise the next. Miami gets embarrassed at home by Tennessee one week and then dominates Pittsburgh the next and sends Ben Roethlisberger to the operating table. One week, Oakland looks like the Raiders of Daryle Lamonica and Ben Davidson, and the next week they look like the Raiders of most of the last 15 years.

You have New England, Dallas, Minnesota, and Seattle as the most consistently good teams this year. Denver, Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Washington have been up and down or down and up, and any of these teams could prove to be as consistent as the first four. However, the other 24 teams are like dice-rollers. One week, they roll an 8 and then hit 8 the hard way; the next week, they roll an 8 and then crap out with a 7.

This is where computer ratings are useless. Computer ratings cannot factor inconsistency. If a team is supposed to win by 10 but loses by 10, and then in the next game, they are supposed to lose by 10 and wins by 10, their rating is not going to differ much from a team that is supposed to win by 10 and does so and then loses by 10 when they are supposed to lose by 10.

You would almost need to have two different ratings for the teams–one when they are going to lay a golden egg, and one when they lay a rotten egg. An algorithm would then have to be constructed to determine whether the team would be golden or rotten. Good luck with that. There is only one way to try to make use of this knowledge–don’t invest any money on these games!

Okay, there are some very astute computer specialists and mathematical geniuses that can devise such an algorithm based on enough data to fill a small library. They can determine the chance that a team will be golden or rotten about 60 percent of the time. By further using this information to play more underdogs than favorites, they can win 5 out of 8 times (62.5%).

Believe it or not, 62.5% is enough to be banned from every respectable sports book in the world. The big-time winners must compensate others to place bets for them, because they are persona non grata with the books when they basically win 5 out of 8 times. If they bet through their confidential couriers at 6 different books for a total of $150,000 a game, and they bet on 16 games per weekend (college and pro), they are going to win 10 of the 16 games and pocket a profit near a half million dollars by the time they pay their commissions, while the books will be out more than a half million. After a quarter of a season, that’s more than two million bucks lost by the books, and they cannot have that.

We know that there are many other ways the wise guys exploit that you and us cannot use, such as playing both sides against the middle in games with wide swings in the spreads between the opening line and the lines just before kickoff.

What do the books want from you? Believe it or not, they want you to win four times out of nine and no less. If you can consistently win four times and lose five times every week, they have you hooked. You will slowly lose money every week, but you will be so close to winning that you can taste it, and you will get even next week. If you consistently win just 1 to 3 times a week, they cannot count on your betting next week unless you really have some screws loose.

They don’t even want you to go 4-5 every week. They hope that in 17 weeks of football, you will go 5-4 every third or fourth week and pocket a little profit, and that you will then go 4-5 all the other weeks. You and millions other giving them a couple hundred dollars every week make them very wealthy.

You can also make them wealthy by following our advice. So, please, lose on your own account and do not blame us. We just do this for fun. Unfortunately, we have had some moderate success in the past, and more than a few dozen of you with URLs from the State of Nevada read our Money Line articles every week believing that past success can be used to predict future results.

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
New England 108.4 106.8 109.1 108.1 65 43
Buffalo 105.4 105.4 106.3 105.7 63 43
N. Y. Jets 98.8 97.2 99.7 98.6 58 41
Miami 95.7 96.5 95.4 95.8 58 38
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Pittsburgh 104.4 103.9 105.5 104.6 64 41
Cincinnati 102.2 101.7 102.4 102.1 61 41
Baltimore 97.7 99.5 97.1 98.1 61 37
Cleveland 90.1 90.8 89.8 90.2 57 33
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Houston 98.3 99.4 98.1 98.6 62 37
Indianapolis 96.7 98.4 96.0 97.0 61 36
Jacksonville 95.5 97.0 94.9 95.8 59 37
Tennessee 95.3 96.8 95.0 95.7 57 39
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Denver 106.4 104.5 106.2 105.7 63 43
Kansas City 103.0 102.5 103.6 103.0 64 39
San Diego 100.1 101.0 99.8 100.3 64 36
Oakland 97.1 98.2 97.1 97.5 63 35
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Philadelphia 102.7 100.7 102.1 101.8 63 39
Dallas 101.4 100.9 101.8 101.4 61 40
Washington 100.2 100.1 100.3 100.2 62 38
N.Y. Giants 98.3 98.2 98.2 98.2 62 36
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Minnesota 107.8 106.5 108.3 107.5 63 45
Green Bay 102.1 101.7 101.9 101.9 63 39
Detroit 98.7 98.4 98.4 98.5 61 38
Chicago 93.3 92.0 92.8 92.7 55 38
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Atlanta 103.2 104.6 103.8 103.8 68 36
Carolina 101.9 102.0 101.8 101.9 60 42
New Orleans 97.6 99.6 97.1 98.1 64 34
Tampa Bay 95.4 95.9 94.8 95.4 59 36
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Seattle 107.3 104.4 108.1 106.6 63 44
Arizona 106.8 104.7 107.4 106.3 67 39
Los Angeles 98.8 99.9 98.6 99.1 57 42
San Francisco 91.5 92.5 91.0 91.7 54 38

 

This Week’s Games
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Green Bay Chicago 11.8 12.7 12.1 44
Los Angeles (L) New York Giants 0.5 1.7 0.4 41
Cincinnati Cleveland 14.1 12.9 14.6 45
Detroit Washington 0.5 1.3 1.1 48
Jacksonville Oakland 1.4 1.8 0.8 51
Kansas City New Orleans 8.4 5.9 9.5 56
Miami Buffalo -6.7 -5.9 -7.9 41
New York Jets Baltimore 3.6 0.2 5.1 41
Philadelphia Minnesota -2.1 -2.8 -3.2 43
Tennessee Indianapolis 1.6 1.4 2.0 44
Atlanta San Diego 6.1 6.6 7.0 61
San Francisco Tampa Bay -0.9 -0.4 -0.8 39
Pittsburgh New England -4.0 -2.9 -3.6 46
Arizona Seattle 2.5 3.3 2.3 48
Denver Houston 11.1 8.1 11.1 46
(L) Game to be played in London

 

 

 

 

October 4, 2016

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Week 5: October 6-10, 2016

He’s Baaaaaaaaaack

Our commentary this week could be reduced to just two words for the Twitterverse readers–Tom Brady.

In no uncertain terms, Brady would love to come back with such gusto, anger, wrath, and all other negative or evil emotions and force Commissioner Roger Goodell to hand a fully inflated trophy to him in February.  How will Brady play after having a month-long sabbatical?

He gets a breather to begin his return, as the Patriots play Cleveland.  The Patriots could name the score if they really wanted to punish the NFL, but running up the score on Cleveland is like Sonny  Liston beating a Bantam Weight boxer (for you Twitterkind, Google Sonny Liston).

Our guess is that a combination of rustiness and pressing will lead Brady and the Pats to an underachieving win, so be careful about believing New England’s players’ fantasy points and the Vegas Spread will present basement bargains for you.

Yet Another Rookie QB Star

Last week, we reported on the prowess of rookie quarterbacks Carson Wentz, Dak Prescott, and Jacoby Brissett.  We referred to Cody Kessler in a previous report.  Now, you can add another rookie signal-caller to the fold of capable leaders.  Denver’s Paxton Lynch replaced the injured Trevor Siemian last week, and he directed the Broncos to an impressive victory over the Tampa Bay Bucs.

On his first full drive after coming in on third and long in the previous drive, Lynch led the Broncos’ two-minute drill (actually just 1:19 left in the first half) brilliantly. Starting at the Bronco 33-yard line, he connected with Jordan Norwood across the middle for four yards and then followed it up with a 16-yard strike to Emmanuel Sanders.

After a sack and incomplete pass, Lynch connected with Sanders again, this time for 18 yards and a first down inside the Tampa Bay 30.  Following a timeout and incomplete pass, Lynch once again found Sanders open for nine yards, just short of a first down.  The Broncos called their final time out with 15 seconds remaining in the half and facing third and one.  The Broncos kicked a field goal after an incomplete pass, to take a 17-7 lead into the locker.

Lynch directed the Broncos to 10 second-half points and finished the day with 170 passing yards and a touchdown on 14 of 24 passing.  The final drive for the fourth quarter touchdown was very Elwaysian, as Lynch operated the four-minute offense to perfection, as he took the Broncos on an 80-yard, nine-play drive that took more than four minutes off the clock and ended when he rolled out and connected on a touchdown pass with Sanders from the five yard line.

Who starts for Denver when Siemian is okay to play again?  Siemian did nothing wrong when he was in for the defending Super Bowl champions.  He was more of an excellent game manager.  Lynch is more like a gunslinger, part John Elway and part Kenny Stabler.  He marches to the beat of a different drummer, but he is also the Broncos first round pick.  Expect Lynch to eventually become the number one QB, and once he does, the Broncos might be Super Bowl worthy again.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
New England 106.9 105.2 107.4 106.5 64 43
Buffalo 103.3 103.6 103.9 103.6 61 43
N. Y. Jets 100.1 98.5 101.0 99.9 60 40
Miami 95.2 96.0 94.9 95.3 57 38
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Pittsburgh 106.3 105.7 107.6 106.5 66 41
Cincinnati 105.4 104.7 106.2 105.5 63 43
Baltimore 98.4 100.6 98.0 99.0 62 37
Cleveland 90.2 91.1 89.8 90.4 57 33
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Houston 99.1 100.2 99.0 99.4 62 37
Indianapolis 96.5 98.4 95.7 96.9 61 36
Jacksonville 95.3 97.0 94.6 95.6 59 37
Tennessee 93.6 95.3 93.1 94.0 55 39
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Denver 109.4 106.6 109.7 108.5 64 45
Kansas City 101.3 100.9 101.9 101.4 63 38
Oakland 98.8 99.8 98.9 99.2 64 35
San Diego 98.9 100.1 98.2 99.1 64 35
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Philadelphia 104.5 101.5 104.2 103.4 64 39
Washington 98.0 98.6 97.9 98.2 61 37
N.Y. Giants 98.0 97.6 97.7 97.8 62 36
Dallas 96.7 96.7 96.6 96.7 57 40
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Minnesota 106.7 105.4 107.2 106.4 62 44
Green Bay 104.4 103.7 104.4 104.2 64 40
Detroit 98.3 98.1 97.8 98.1 61 37
Chicago 93.5 91.8 93.1 92.8 55 38
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Carolina 104.7 104.1 105.1 104.6 62 43
Atlanta 101.0 103.4 101.3 101.9 66 36
New Orleans 97.2 99.5 96.6 97.8 64 34
Tampa Bay 93.1 94.0 92.1 93.1 58 35
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Seattle 107.7 104.4 108.6 106.9 63 44
Arizona 104.7 102.6 105.2 104.2 66 38
Los Angeles 99.7 100.8 99.5 100.0 57 43
San Francisco 93.2 94.2 93.0 93.5 55 39

This Week’s PiRate Spreads & Totals

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
San Francisco Arizona -8.5 -5.4 -9.2 46
Baltimore Washington 1.9 3.5 1.6 50
Cleveland New England -13.7 -11.1 -14.6 45
Detroit Philadelphia -3.7 -0.9 -4.9 50
Indianapolis Chicago 5.5 9.1 5.1 44
Miami Tennessee 4.6 3.7 4.8 37
Minnesota Houston 10.6 8.2 11.2 45
Pittsburgh New York Jets 9.2 10.2 9.6 47
Denver Atlanta 11.4 6.2 11.4 50
Dallas Cincinnati -5.7 -5.0 -6.6 39
Los Angeles Buffalo -0.6 0.2 -1.4 34
Oakland San Diego 2.9 2.7 3.7 59
Green Bay New York Giants 9.4 9.1 9.7 51
Carolina Tampa Bay 14.6 13.1 16.0 43

 

 

September 21, 2016

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–September 22-26, 2016

After improving a bit last week and losing only $23 of our imaginary bank roll, we have decided to expand our plays to include a couple of underdogs we believe can win outright. Thus, two of our four chosen plays this week will return big payoffs of imaginary cash should they come through with winners.
First, we must take care of official business. Last week, we played five parlays, winning $277 and losing $300. For the year, we have now wagered $1,200 in imaginary money, and have a loss of $442 to date, meaning still no return on our unreal investment. We warned you that Money Line Parlays can be really tough, but we love to play them, especially since it costs us nothing.
Here are our picks for this week. Remember, don’t actually wager on these. This is just for fun, and we would never put a dime of real money on these plays, even if it returned over 40% on investment last year. It’s doing squat so far this year.

1. College Parlay at +450
Army over Buffalo
Tulane over Louisiana-Lafayette
Arkansas over Texas A&M

Arkansas is the underdog in this parlay and the reason it offers a return of 4.5 times the amount invested. The Razorbacks have been slowly developing a balanced offense with an improving defense. Winning at TCU is enough to show us that the Hogs are on the way back to great things. Texas A&M has struggled in their two wins over quality opposition, and we believe the Aggies are due for continued struggles.

Army is off to a great start, and the Black Knights now face a Buffalo team that has already lost to a FCS opponent. This could be the type of game that allows the Cadets to play their plebes. Coach Jeff Monken learned well from his mentor Paul Johnson, and the Army rushing attack looks like it could move the ball on most FBS teams this year. They should light up the scoreboard against Buffalo.

Tulane is also running the option under first year coach Willie Fritz. Fritz does not have all the pieces in place yet in New Orleans, but with his Texas ties, it is only a matter of time until the Green Wave are winning once again. For now, TU has an exceptional defense with a clock-consuming offense that allows that defense to stay fresh and strong enough to hold ULL to 10 points, which is few enough that we see the olive green and blue winning this week.

2. College Parlay at +126
Arizona St. over California
Cincinnati over Miami (O)
Minnesota over Colorado St.
Memphis over Bowling Green

Arizona State had to rally in the fourth quarter to win at UTSA, while Cal pulled off a nice home upset of Texas. With the Golden Bears playing in the heat in Tempe, and with ASU’s players more focused, we believe Todd Graham’s Sun Devils will play their best game of the season to date, while Cal has trouble with the heat and the speed of the ASU receivers.

Cincinnati should beat Miami of Ohio by 3 touchdowns, but even if the in-state rival underdogs play their best possible and the Bearcats stink up the joint, Cinti should win by at least 10.

Minnesota is a team flying under the radar. They win, but they don’t win convincingly and don’t win with flashy play. The offense is better than most think, and the defense is not shabby. This Gophers team is not yet the equivalent of the Sandy Stephens’ teams of the early 1960’s, but it could be as good as any in Minneapolis since Laurence Maroney and Bryan Capito were moving the pigskin.

This year’s Memphis team has not really been challenged yet, and Bowling Green is not the team to bring that challenge. The Tigers should have little problem disposing of the Falcons, as this is a different BGU team without Dino Babers at the controls.

3. NFL Parlay at +373
Indianapolis over San Diego
Oakland over Tennessee
Dallas over Chicago

Oakland is the second underdog we will use in our parlays this week. The Raiders’ starting offensive and defensive lines manhandled the Titans starting offensive and defensive lines in the preseason game. Preseason games don’t reveal a lot, but when you see one front consistently moving the opposing front in the same direction, it is a good bet that they will do so no matter the importance of the game. We believe the Raiders will score more points than the Titans are capable of scoring, and thus we go with the underdog.

Indianapolis faces a must-win scenario at home. Even with a sore Andrew Luck, we believe the Colts will find a way to eke out a small win. If not, then the AFC West is going to be one incredible 4-team race.

Dallas should handle the Bears with relative ease. Without Jay Cutler, Chicago will have to play conservatively and hope they can rattle Dak Prescott. We believe that the nifty rookie will continue to play brilliantly week after week and could be the odds-on favorite to win the Rookie of the Year Award.

4. NFL Parlay at +143
Miami over Cleveland
New York Giants over Washington
Carolina over Minnesota

If Cleveland couldn’t win with RGIII and John McCown at quarterback, then how can they win with Cody Kessler, who wasn’t good enough to make the active roster when all the QBs were healthy. Miami is not playoff worthy at this point, but Adam Gase can design a game plan that will make Kessler’s debut a nightmare.

The Giants look like the Giants of old when Eli Manning had multiple quality receivers to throw to, and the defense came up with big stops. Well, Manning has multiple quality receivers again, and the defense is coming up with big stops. NY could be looking at a season where they are playing at home in January.

The Carolina-Minnesota match worried us for hours today. The Vikings will have to go without Adrian Peterson, but their defense looks as strong as it has looked since the days of Eller, Page, and company. Meanwhile, there is unrest in Charlotte, and it could carry over to the team. We decided that in the end, we would go with the home team to capitalize on the weakened running game and thus to slow down Sam Bradford.

August 31, 2016

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–September 1-5, 2016

This just for fun weekly feature turned out to be our most widely read part of the PiRate Ratings last year, because just like a broken clock is correct twice a day, somehow our money line parlays returned 40% on investment last year. People began leaving comments at our sister site, http://www.piratings.webs.com , telling us they were using these picks to wager their hard-earned money. That disappointed us a lot, since we begged them not to do this.

This is a just for fun mathematical experiment. We have no inside information; we have no specialist in Vegas placing wagers anonymously for us like other heavy hitters. In fact, if we were to announce to any book that we would like to play our picks for real, they would bend over backwards to help us do just that. So, that should tell you not to use these picks. Just read what we have to offer. If there is some way to wager just for fun with your friends, by picking X number of teams to win outright, then maybe you can use our selections.

For those not aware of the Money Line, it is a line established to wager on who you think will win the game without having to cover a pointspread. Obviously, if Michigan plays Hawaii, you would take Michigan to win. As Lee Corso says, “Not so fast my friend.” In order to take Michigan to win the game outright over Hawaii, you have to give ridiculous odds to the book. To win just $100 on this proposal, you must put up $75,000! If you want to wager just $100 on Hawaii to win the game in the biggest upset in years, you would win $25,000 if it happened!

Obviously, this is an extreme outlier. Let’s look at a closer game this week. Vanderbilt hosts South Carolina tomorrow night. The current Money Line odds are listed as Vanderbilt -185 and South Carolina +165. This means that if you believe the Commodores will win, you must put up $185 to win $100 ($285, because you get your investment money back as well). If you believe South Carolina will win this game, then by wagering $100, you stand to win $165 ($265 as you will get your $100 back as well if you win) if the Gamecocks win.

A Money Line parlay allows you to combine multiple games in order to raise your total odds. The catch is that if you bet X amount of games as one parlay wager, all X teams must win. It is considered a sucker bet to play this type of exotic wager, but we are not suckers, because we bet $0 every week. We can choose and choose parlays every week, and we will not lose a penny. We hope you will not either.

Here is our plan of attack that worked rather well last year for us. We will select a host of favorites and bunch them into parlays where the odds are better than even money for us should we win the wager. For example, let’s say that you combine three favorites into one parlay wager. Team A is listed at -250. Team B is listed at -235. Team C is listed at -225. The parlay on this three-team wager would be +188, or you would put up $100 to win $188 ($288 because as you know by now, when you win, you get back your investment money as well.)

It is not easy for three teams at -250, -235, and -225 to all win in a given week. That’s the catch. It looks so easy, and there are some nice hotels in Vegas that have been built from funds donated to them by suckers that thought it looked so easy.

Okay, now that you have been warned, let’s get started with our first Money Line Parlays of the 2016 season. We are playing just two parlays this week, and by playing, we mean like it is Monopoly–it is just a fun game.

Parlay #1

This one gives us +167 odds on our $100 fantasy investment. Yep, if we win, we receive $267 from the fake book in fake Vegas.

Tulsa over San Jose St.
Wake Forest over Tulane
LSU over Wisconsin
West Virginia over Missouri

Parlay #2

This one gives us +127 odds on our $100 fantasy investment. So, if we win just one of these two parlays, it will be a profitable week.

Colorado over Colorado St.
Temple over Army
UTEP over New Mexico St.
Minnesota over Oregon St.

Okay, that’s $200 fake invested funds into two parlays. If we lose both, we are out our imaginary $200. If we win #1 and lose #2, we will have a nice profit in week one returning $267 on the $200 wagered (33.5% ROI). If we lose #1 and win #2, we will have a so-so profit in week one returning $227 on the $200 wagered (13.5% ROI). If somehow both parlays win, we will be taking a fake vacation to an imaginary mountain lodge after pulling off a return of $494 on the $200 wagered (147% ROI).

One final warning and plea–please do not wager real money on these picks. Use them for fun only. See if you can come up with your own and see for yourself how easy hard it is.

Happy football holiday weekend.

January 8, 2016

Computer Simulations: 2016 NFL Playoffs–Wildcard Round

Earlier today, we placed all the pertinent statistics, the weather forecasts, and the home field advantages into the good old computer simulator, and it spit out 100 simulations of each NFL game for the Wildcard Weekend.  When we saw the results, we had to make sure we had not made any mistakes in the input, because the output for the four games was very close to identical.

 

After we realized there had been no mistakes, we were left with the thought that all four games are about equal in competitive value.  There were four clear favorites, but the average scores and standard deviations of the four games tells us that these games should all be exciting.  Weather could play a factor in Minneapolis and in Cincinnati.

All Games will be broadcast on the radio over the Westwood One Radio Network.  To find your local affiliate, follow the link below:

http://westwoodonesports.com/stations/

Saturday, January 9, 2016

Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) at Houston Texans (9-7)

Kickoff: 4:35 PM EST

TV: ESPN

Las Vegas Line: Kansas City by 3 to 3 1/2

Totals: 40 to 41

Money Line Avg: Kansas City -170  Houston +150

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Kansas City by 1.7

Mean: Kansas City by 0.9

Bias: Kansas City by 0.5

 

100 Simulations

Kansas City Wins: 60

Houston Wins: 40

Avg. Score: Kansas City 21.0  Houston 17.3

St Deviation: 8.3

Outlier KC win: 34-10

Outlier Hou win: 27-6

 

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (12-4)

Kickoff: 8:15 PM EST

TV: CBS

Las Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 2 1/2 to 3

Totals: 45 1/2 to 46 1/2

Money Line Avg. Pittsburgh -150  Cincinnati +130

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Cincinnati by 2.0

Mean: Cincinnati by 2.3

Bias: Cincinnati by 2.6

 

100 Simulations

Pittsburgh wins: 59

Cincinnati wins: 41

Avg. Score: Pittsburgh 24.5  Cincinnati 22.6

St. Deviation: 8.7

Outlier Pit win: 37-14

Outlier Cin win: 28-9

 

Sunday, January 10, 2016

Seattle Seahawks (10-6) at Minnesota Vikings (11-5)

Kickoff: 1:05 PM EST

TV: NBC

Las Vegas Line: Seattle by 4 1/2 to 5 1/2

Totals: 39 1/2 to 40

Money Line Avg.: Seattle -230  Minnesota +190

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Seattle by 3.0

Mean: Seattle by 2.5

Bias: Seattle by 0.4

 

100 Simulations

Seattle wins 61

Minnesota wins 39

Avg. Score: Seattle 24.7  Minnesota 21.7

St. Deviation: 8.8

Outlier Sea win: 41-14

Outlier Min win: 28-12

 

Green Bay Packers (10-6) at Washington Redskins (9-7)

Kickoff: 4:40 PM EST

TV: Fox

Las Vegas Line: Pick to Washington by 1

Totals: 45 to 45 1/2

Money Line Avg.: Washington -110  Green Bay -110

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Green Bay by 1.1

Mean: Washington by 0.2

Bias: Washington by 1.2

 

100 Simulations

Green Bay wins: 61

Washington wins: 39

Avg. Score: Green Bay 25.9  Washington 22.9

St Deviation: 7.3

Outlier GB win: 34-17

Outlier Was win: 27-16

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