The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 12, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For December 12-16, 2019

Davey19 Concludes College Football Regular Season With Second Perfect Slate In 3 Weeks!

Our experimental Davey19 forecast model went 3-0 last week during Conference Championship Week, correctly picking against the spread the AAC, Big 12, and Sun Belt Conference Championship Games.  This led to a final four weeks record of 22-8-1 or 73.3% against the spread, which is smashingly excellent.  It left the Davey19 system well in the black for the season.

We discovered quite early in the year that this system apparently works best on conference games in college football.  It was so-so with non-conference football and totally useless with NFL games.  So, because of that, Davey19 is being shut down for the college bowl season and the remainder of the NFL season.  We will continue to experiment with this system next year when the college teams play conference games, and then if we have another successful year, especially wiping up in November as the sample size increases, we may remove the “experimental” tag from the system name.

 

What you will get for the rest of the season are the regular PiRate Ratings selections, or in other words, the most useless but entertaining picks against the spread and the money line.  We are throwing caution to the wind coming up with picks so out in left field, that they are on top of the roof across the street from old Griffith Stadium in Washington.  For those of you under the age of 85 or not an architectural fan of old demolished baseball parks, it was over 400 feet to left field at Washington’s Griffith Stadium for most of its existence, until players like Harmon Killebrew, Roy Sievers, and Jim Lemon wore Washington Senators jerseys.  Therefore, the roof on top of the building over the left field wall was only reachable by visiting players like Jimmy Foxx and, of course, Mickey Mantle.

FYI: Mantle’s  565 foot blast over the bleachers at Griffith was hit to left-center and landed on Oakdale Street three houses down from the ballpark.  The Yankees’ radio announcer said something to the effect that somebody should get out a tape measure to see how far the blast carried.  Thus, the term “Tape Measure Home Run” was coined.  Additionally, the ball might have traveled several feet more had it not grazed the edge of the football scoreboard.  I would cite the source for this, but this is from aged memory without actually looking it up.

Okay, now that we’ve diverted your attention away from our crazy, goofy, insane, but free picks, here is how we are progressing the rest of the way.  You will receive our expertly “It seemed like a good idea at the time” selections.  Don’t you dare use them to wager real money on games unless you also like to touch live electricity while swimming in a pool.  None of the PiRates have ever wagered a dollar on any of the selections that appear on this site.  While we do know that there are pros, even two Sharps, that use our site for information, they are using our regular weekly ratings and have different algorithms and rules to apply to them to make profits.  These different Sharps are using data completely different from each other, and from one of them (actually somebody in the public eye as a pro), this person plugged numbers into a computer for weeks before discovering this anomaly that led to about 65.2% success against the spread over the last 6 years.  We take great pain to never issue these picks on this site for two reasons.  First, this person told us this in confidence and revealing it publicly means the odds might change and ruin this person’s very hard work.  Second, the minute we recommend these picks, luck will turn the other way and make them stop working.

Therefore, we seldom if ever make straight selections against the spread or the totals that might second what the successful system also chooses.  We have fun devising teaser and money line parlays, looking for the big odds payout.  Davey19 is totally different, as it is a mechanical system for picking conference games in college with occasional non-conference games selected.  While there have been times where Davey19 and the Sharp have selected the same games, we have tried to censor those games from Davey19 when there are enough other games the system chooses.  For instance, one week Davey19 flagged 10 games, but we only issued 7, because the other three were games that the Sharp also keyed.

So, here are our strictly for fun parlays for week 15 of the NFL system.  There have been some highly successful weeks with these picks, but there have been even more losing weeks, so once again, please look at these just for fun and do not wager these selections based on reading them here.

 

10-Point Teasers @ 10-12

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Denver

Kansas City

0.5

Kansas City

Carolina

Seattle

4

Seattle

Jacksonville

Oakland

3.5

Oakland

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Arizona

Cleveland

7.5

Cleveland

Dallas

LA Rams

8.5

LA Rams

Indianapolis

New Orleans

1.5

New Orleans

 

 

13-Point Teasers @ 10-13

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Baltimore

N.Y. Jets

29.5

N.Y. Jets

Green Bay

Chicago

17.5

Chicago

Chicago

Green Bay

8.5

Green Bay

Minnesota

LA Chargers

15.5

LA Chargers

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

LA Chargers

Minnesota

10.5

Minnesota

San Francisco

Atlanta

24

Atlanta

Pittsburgh

Buffalo

15

Buffalo

Buffalo

Pittsburgh

11

Pittsburgh

 

7-Point Teaser @ 10-13

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

New England

Cincinnati

2

New England

Detroit

Tampa Bay

3.5

Tampa Bay

 

 

Money Line Parlays

#1–1 Game at +435

In other words, this is a major upset pick that we just have a feeling about due to the favorite having played three tough games in a row and an underdog that can score points and plays better on the road than at home.

Winner

Loser

Atlanta

San Francisco

 

#2–2 Games at +156

Winner

Loser

Tennessee

Houston

Philadelphia

Washington

 

#3–2 Games at +198

Winner

Loser

Cleveland

Arizona

Minnesota

LA Chargers

 

#4–3 Games at +224

Winner

Loser

Kansas City

Denver

New England

Cincinnati

Buffalo

Pittsburgh

 

#5–3 Games at +241

Winner

Loser

Green Bay

Chicago

LA Rams

Dallas

New Orleans

Indianapolis

 

 

 

 

 

 

December 2, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 14: December 5-9, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

 

Margins

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Chicago

Dallas

2.6

-0.6

-0.2

Atlanta

Carolina

3.3

3.5

2.8

Buffalo

Baltimore

-6.3

-5.3

-6.2

Cleveland

Cincinnati

8.0

8.4

8.1

Green Bay

Washington

13.6

13.0

13.7

Houston

Denver

8.1

8.0

8.1

Minnesota

Detroit

11.5

11.5

11.6

New Orleans

San Francisco

1.4

-1.4

-1.7

N. Y. Jets

Miami

8.5

8.8

8.1

Tampa Bay

Indianapolis

2.6

3.6

4.4

Jacksonville

LA Chargers

-4.3

-3.9

-3.5

Arizona

Pittsburgh

-3.6

-3.7

-3.6

New England

Kansas City

9.0

9.1

8.9

Oakland

Tennessee

-4.5

-5.2

-4.7

LA Rams

Seattle

4.2

3.0

3.1

Philadelphia

N. Y. Giants

12.1

10.4

9.7

 

Totals

 

Home

Visitor

Total

Chicago

Dallas

38

Atlanta

Carolina

51

Buffalo

Baltimore

42

Cleveland

Cincinnati

45.5

Green Bay

Washington

42.5

Houston

Denver

41

Minnesota

Detroit

47.5

New Orleans

San Francisco

49

N. Y. Jets

Miami

48.5

Tampa Bay

Indianapolis

51.5

Jacksonville

LA Chargers

39.5

Arizona

Pittsburgh

44

New England

Kansas City

51.5

Oakland

Tennessee

44

LA Rams

Seattle

50.5

Philadelphia

N. Y. Giants

49.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New England

108.9

109.6

109.1

109.2

20.5

10-2

Buffalo

101.8

102.9

102.8

102.5

17.5

9-3

N. Y. Jets

94.9

95.6

94.7

95.1

21

4-8

Miami

89.5

89.7

89.5

89.6

27.5

3-9

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Baltimore

111.1

111.1

112.0

111.4

24.5

10-2

Pittsburgh

99.5

100.0

100.4

99.9

20

7-5

Cleveland

99.2

99.5

99.5

99.4

23

5-7

Cincinnati

93.2

93.1

93.4

93.2

22.5

1-11

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Houston

103.1

103.4

103.2

103.3

23

8-4

Tennessee

100.9

101.4

101.3

101.2

19.5

7-5

Indianapolis

99.3

100.1

99.6

99.7

22.5

6-6

Jacksonville

93.6

93.8

93.6

93.7

18.5

4-8

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Kansas City

102.9

103.5

103.2

103.2

31

8-4

LA Chargers

101.0

100.7

100.1

100.6

21

4-8

Denver

98.1

98.4

98.1

98.2

18

4-8

Oakland

93.4

93.3

93.6

93.4

24.5

6-6

 

 

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Dallas

103.3

103.9

103.5

103.6

21

6-6

Philadelphia

102.0

100.4

100.0

100.8

24.5

5-7

N.Y. Giants

91.9

92.0

92.2

92.0

25

2-10

Washington

91.4

92.2

91.8

91.8

18

3-9

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Minnesota

106.4

105.0

105.2

105.6

23

8-4

Green Bay

102.0

102.2

102.5

102.2

24.5

9-3

Chicago

103.0

100.3

100.3

101.2

17

6-6

Detroit

97.4

96.0

96.1

96.5

24.5

3-8-1

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New Orleans

107.4

105.5

105.8

106.2

25

10-2

Tampa Bay

98.9

100.6

101.0

100.2

29

5-7

Atlanta

97.5

97.5

97.1

97.3

25.5

3-9

Carolina

96.6

96.5

96.8

96.6

25.5

5-7

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

San Francisco

109.0

109.9

110.5

109.8

24

10-2

LA Rams

105.5

104.3

104.7

104.8

25.5

7-5

Seattle

104.3

104.3

104.6

104.4

25

10-2

Arizona

93.0

93.2

93.8

93.3

24

3-8-1

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

 

AFC Seeding

1

Baltimore

2

New England

3

Houston

4

Kansas City

5

Buffalo

6

Pittsburgh

 

 

NFC Seeding

1

Seattle

2

New Orleans

3

Green Bay

4

Dallas

5

San Francisco

6

Minnesota

Wildcard Round

Houston over Pittsburgh

Buffalo over Kansas City

Green Bay over Minnesota

San Francisco over Dallas

 

 

Divisional Round

Buffalo over Baltimore

Houston over New England

Seattle over San Francisco

New Orleans over Green Bay

 

 

Conference Championship

Houston over Buffalo

Seattle over New Orleans

 

 

Super Bowl 54

Seattle over Houston

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 25, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 13: November 28-December 2, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Margins

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Detroit

Chicago

-2.8

-1.2

-0.9

Dallas

Buffalo

8.4

7.9

8.0

Atlanta

New Orleans

-7.4

-5.1

-5.8

Cincinnati

N.Y. Jets

-2.5

-3.5

-2.4

Indianapolis

Tennessee

4.8

5.2

5.1

Miami

Philadelphia

-14.2

-12.4

-12.3

N.Y. Giants

Green Bay

-5.2

-5.0

-5.0

Pittsburgh

Cleveland

2.6

2.5

2.8

Carolina

Washington

10.9

10.1

11.0

Jacksonville

Tampa Bay

0.7

-0.9

-1.2

Baltimore

San Francisco

6.3

5.4

6.1

Arizona

LA Rams

-5.5

-3.7

-3.3

Denver

LA Chargers

-0.1

0.3

0.6

Kansas City

Oakland

8.1

8.6

7.8

Houston

New England

-4.1

-4.7

-4.6

Seattle

Minnesota

-0.1

1.3

1.2

 

Totals

Home

Visitor

Total

Detroit

Chicago

41.5

Dallas

Buffalo

38.5

Atlanta

New Orleans

50.5

Cincinnati

N.Y. Jets

44.5

Indianapolis

Tennessee

41

Miami

Philadelphia

50

N.Y. Giants

Green Bay

50.5

Pittsburgh

Cleveland

44

Carolina

Washington

43.5

Jacksonville

Tampa Bay

48.5

Baltimore

San Francisco

49.5

Arizona

LA Rams

49.5

Denver

LA Chargers

39

Kansas City

Oakland

55.5

Houston

New England

43.5

Seattle

Minnesota

48

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New England

109.4

110.2

109.8

109.8

20.5

10-1

Buffalo

100.0

101.1

100.8

100.6

17.5

8-3

N. Y. Jets

96.5

97.4

96.5

96.8

21.5

4-7

Miami

87.4

87.6

87.3

87.4

26.5

2-9

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Baltimore

111.3

111.3

112.4

111.7

25

9-2

Cleveland

99.7

100.1

100.2

100.0

23.5

5-6

Pittsburgh

99.3

99.7

100.0

99.6

20.5

6-5

Cincinnati

91.6

91.3

91.6

91.5

23

0-11

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Houston

102.3

102.5

102.2

102.4

23

7-4

Indianapolis

101.0

101.9

101.5

101.5

22

6-5

Tennessee

99.2

99.6

99.4

99.4

19

6-5

Jacksonville

95.5

95.7

95.6

95.6

19

4-7

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Kansas City

100.7

101.2

100.8

100.9

31

7-4

LA Chargers

101.1

100.9

100.3

100.7

21

4-7

Denver

98.0

98.2

97.9

98.0

18

3-8

Oakland

95.6

95.6

96.0

95.7

24.5

6-5

 

 

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Dallas

105.4

106.0

105.8

105.7

21

6-5

Philadelphia

104.1

102.5

102.2

102.9

23.5

5-6

N.Y. Giants

93.1

93.3

93.6

93.3

25.5

2-9

Washington

89.7

90.4

89.9

90.0

18

2-9

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Minnesota

106.9

105.5

105.8

106.1

23

8-3

Chicago

102.9

100.0

99.9

100.9

17

5-6

Green Bay

100.8

100.9

101.1

100.9

25

8-3

Detroit

97.5

96.3

96.5

96.8

24.5

3-7-1

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New Orleans

107.4

105.3

105.6

106.1

25

9-2

Tampa Bay

97.3

99.0

99.3

98.5

29.5

4-7

Carolina

98.0

98.0

98.4

98.1

25.5

5-6

Atlanta

97.5

97.7

97.3

97.5

25.5

3-8

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

San Francisco

108.5

109.4

109.8

109.2

24.5

10-1

Seattle

103.8

103.8

104.0

103.9

25

9-2

LA Rams

103.5

102.1

102.4

102.7

25.5

6-5

Arizona

95.0

95.4

96.1

95.5

24

3-7-1

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding

1

Baltimore

2

New England

3

Houston

4

Kansas City

5

Buffalo

6

Pittsburgh

 

 

NFC Seeding

1

San Francisco

2

New Orleans

3

Green Bay

4

Dallas

5

Seattle

6

Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round

Houston over Pittsburgh

Buffalo over Kansas City

Minnesota over Green Bay

Seattle over Dallas

 

 

Divisional Round

Baltimore over Buffalo

Houston over New England

San Francisco over Minnesota

Seattle over New Orleans

 

 

Conference Championship

Baltimore over Houston

San Francisco over Seattle

 

 

Super Bowl 54

Baltimore over San Francisco

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 11, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 11: November 14-18, 2019

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:15 pm

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

 

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Cleveland

Pittsburgh

2.9

2.7

2.2

Carolina

Atlanta

7.2

7.2

8.3

Detroit

Dallas

-3.7

-5.4

-4.4

Indianapolis

Jacksonville

4.2

4.6

3.9

Miami

Buffalo

-8.0

-8.4

-8.2

Baltimore

Houston

3.3

2.9

4.1

Minnesota

Denver

10.5

8.9

9.4

Washington

N.Y. Jets

1.9

2.1

2.7

Tampa Bay

New Orleans

-8.2

-3.7

-3.6

San Francisco

Arizona

14.2

14.6

14.3

Oakland

Cincinnati

8.9

9.2

9.6

Philadelphia

New England

-1.0

-3.6

-3.4

LA Rams

Chicago

5.9

7.5

7.6

LA Chargers (n)

Kansas City

1.4

1.0

1.0

Chargers – Chiefs game will be played in Mexico City

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New England

109.5

110.5

110.1

110.0

21.5

8-1

Buffalo

98.4

99.4

98.9

98.9

17

6-3

N. Y. Jets

91.8

92.6

91.4

91.9

21

2-7

Miami

88.0

88.4

88.2

88.2

25.5

2-7

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Baltimore

105.1

105.0

106.0

105.4

25

7-2

Pittsburgh

99.7

100.2

100.6

100.1

21

5-4

Cleveland

99.6

99.8

99.8

99.7

23

3-6

Cincinnati

91.6

91.2

91.5

91.4

24

0-9

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Houston

104.8

105.1

104.9

105.0

23

6-3

Indianapolis

99.4

100.2

99.7

99.8

22

5-4

Jacksonville

98.2

98.6

98.8

98.5

18.5

4-5

Tennessee

97.7

98.0

97.6

97.8

17.5

5-5

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

LA Chargers

101.5

101.4

100.9

101.2

21.5

4-6

Kansas City

100.0

100.4

99.9

100.1

31.5

6-4

Denver

99.4

99.6

99.4

99.5

18

3-6

Oakland

97.4

97.5

98.1

97.7

25.5

5-4

 

 

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Dallas

105.1

105.6

105.1

105.3

21.5

5-4

Philadelphia

105.6

103.9

103.7

104.4

25

5-4

N.Y. Giants

92.5

92.8

93.0

92.8

26

2-8

Washington

91.3

92.1

91.6

91.7

17.5

1-8

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Minnesota

106.9

105.5

105.8

106.1

22.5

7-3

Green Bay

103.3

103.4

103.7

103.5

25

8-2

Chicago

103.6

100.6

100.7

101.6

18

4-5

Detroit

98.9

97.7

98.2

98.3

25

3-5-1

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New Orleans

107.6

105.1

105.4

106.0

24

7-2

Carolina

100.6

100.8

101.3

100.9

25

5-4

Tampa Bay

96.4

98.4

98.8

97.9

29.5

3-6

Atlanta

96.5

96.6

96.0

96.3

26

2-7

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

San Francisco

106.2

107.1

107.4

106.9

24

8-1

LA Rams

106.5

105.1

105.3

105.6

26

5-4

Seattle

102.4

102.4

102.6

102.5

26

8-2

Arizona

94.5

94.9

95.6

95.0

23.5

3-6-1

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

 

AFC Seeding

1

New England

2

Baltimore

3

Houston

4

Oakland

5

Pittsburgh

6

Kansas City

 

 

NFC Seeding

1

Seattle

2

Green Bay

3

New Orleans

4

Philadelphia

5

San Francisco

6

Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round

Houston over Kansas City

Pittsburgh over Oakland

New Orleans over Minnesota

San Francisco over Philadelphia

 

 

Divisional Round

New England over Pittsburgh

Baltimore over Houston

Seattle over San Francisco

Green Bay over New Orleans

 

 

Conference Championship

New England over Baltimore

Seattle over Green Bay

 

 

Super Bowl 54

Seattle over New England

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 4, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 10: November 7-11, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

 

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Oakland

LA Chargers

-1.2

-1.1

0.0

Tennessee

Kansas City

-0.2

-0.3

-0.2

Cleveland

Buffalo

3.7

3.0

3.4

Tampa Bay

Arizona

5.1

7.1

7.0

N.Y. Jets

N.Y. Giants

-2.1

-1.8

-3.5

New Orleans

Atlanta

17.4

14.6

15.9

Cincinnati

Baltimore

-7.5

-7.5

-8.2

Green Bay

Carolina

5.4

5.2

4.8

Chicago

Detroit

6.6

4.7

4.1

Indianapolis

Miami

15.6

16.0

16.0

Pittsburgh

LA Rams

-5.9

-4.0

-4.0

Dallas

Minnesota

0.4

2.7

2.1

San Francisco

Seattle

7.4

8.7

9.2

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

 

Home

Visitor

Total

Oakland

LA Chargers

46.5

Tennessee

Kansas City

47

Cleveland

Buffalo

41

Tampa Bay

Arizona

53

N.Y. Jets

N.Y. Giants

46

New Orleans

Atlanta

51

Cincinnati

Baltimore

47.5

Green Bay

Carolina

51

Chicago

Detroit

43.5

Indianapolis

Miami

48.5

Pittsburgh

LA Rams

49

Dallas

Minnesota

43

San Francisco

Seattle

50

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New England

109.2

110.2

109.8

109.7

21.5

8-1

Buffalo

98.4

99.4

98.9

98.9

17.5

6-2

N. Y. Jets

91.2

92.0

90.6

91.3

20.5

1-7

Miami

87.6

87.9

87.6

87.7

26

1-7

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Baltimore

103.8

103.6

104.6

104.0

24

6-2

Cleveland

99.6

99.8

99.8

99.7

23.5

2-6

Pittsburgh

98.6

99.1

99.4

99.0

22

4-4

Cincinnati

93.9

93.6

93.9

93.8

23.5

0-8

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Houston

104.5

104.8

104.6

104.7

23

6-3

Indianapolis

100.1

101.0

100.6

100.6

22.5

5-3

Jacksonville

97.9

98.3

98.5

98.2

18.5

4-5

Tennessee

97.5

97.8

97.4

97.6

16.5

4-5

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

LA Chargers

101.6

101.5

101.0

101.3

21.5

4-5

Kansas City

100.2

100.6

100.1

100.3

30.5

6-3

Denver

99.1

99.3

99.1

99.2

18

3-6

Oakland

97.3

97.4

98.0

97.6

25

4-4

 

 

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Dallas

105.2

105.9

105.5

105.5

21

5-3

Philadelphia

105.3

103.6

103.4

104.1

25

5-4

N.Y. Giants

93.4

93.7

94.1

93.7

25.5

2-7

Washington

91.0

91.8

91.3

91.4

17.5

1-8

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Minnesota

106.8

105.2

105.4

105.8

22

6-3

Green Bay

103.2

103.2

103.4

103.3

25.5

7-2

Chicago

103.6

100.5

100.5

101.5

18.5

3-5

Detroit

98.9

97.8

98.4

98.4

25

3-4-1

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New Orleans

109.4

106.8

107.3

107.8

24.5

7-1

Carolina

100.7

101.0

101.6

101.1

25.5

5-3

Tampa Bay

96.5

98.7

99.2

98.1

29.5

2-6

Atlanta

95.0

95.2

94.4

94.8

26.5

1-7

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

San Francisco

106.5

107.6

108.1

107.4

24

8-0

LA Rams

107.5

106.1

106.4

106.7

27

5-3

Seattle

102.1

101.9

101.9

102.0

26

7-2

Arizona

94.4

94.6

95.2

94.7

23.5

3-5-1

 

NFL Playoff Projections

 

AFC Seeding

1

New England

2

Baltimore

3

Houston

4

Kansas City

5

Buffalo

6

Pittsburgh

 

NFC Seeding

1

San Francisco

2

New Orleans

3

Green Bay

4

Philadelphia

5

Seattle

6

LA Rams

 

Wildcard Round

Houston over Pittsburgh

Kansas City over Buffalo

Green Bay over LA Rams

Seattle over Philadelphia

 

 

Divisional Round

New England over Kansas City

Baltimore over Houston

San Francisco over Seattle

New Orleans over Green Bay

 

 

Conference Championship

New England over Baltimore

New Orleans over San Francisco

 

 

Super Bowl 54

New Orleans over New England

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

January 4, 2019

PiRate Ratings Selections for The College Football National Championship Game & The NFL Wildcard Playoff Round

Final Land Sharp Selections

The Land Sharps are limping home to the finish, as the Bowl season did not go so well for our five friends.  Let’s give them all some props for faring so well during the regular season.  It isn’t easy to stay above the magic 52.4% success rate that a sports investor needs to return a profit, and all five did so throughout the regular season.

Now, here’s something else you should know.  If you are a regular reader here, you may recall just after the bowls and playoffs were announced, that we told you about our experiment in playing the Money Line on every bowl game and by investing the identical amount on the underdog to win outright.  We tested this out last year with a healthy profit.

If last year was a healthy profit, this year was a giant windfall!  Friends, this method drained the imaginary money from the imaginary sports book like it was Jesse and Frank James robbing it.  The return on investment was over 61%, as 16 of the 38 underdogs won outright, returning an average of $289 per upset.  If you had the funds and could afford to put down $10,000 on the Underdog on the 39 games (which became 38 after the postponement of the former Heart of Dallas Bowl), these money line wagers would have returned just under a quarter million dollars.  WOW!

Now, to make it even better.  Had you only played the 36 bowl games and not the two playoff games, you would have gone 16-20 and your return on investment would have been 76.5%!  Where else can you get a 76.5% return on your investment in 17 days?

Here are the final Land Sharp Picks for the National Championship Game.  Our Land Sharps made these selections earlier in the week when the going odds were:

Alabama – 5.5

Clemson +7

Over 59.5

Under 60 

 

Three of the Land Sharps selected Clemson and took the points

Cal Gal Tiffany, Dean615, and Stewed Meat

Two of the Land Sharps selected Alabama and gave the points

Buckeye Michelle and Friday Dog 13

 

Four of the Land Sharps took the OVER

Cal Gal Tiffany, Dean615, Buckeye Michelle, and Friday Dog 13

One Land Sharp took the UNDER

Stewed Meat

 

As for the PiRates, we issued our ratings earlier this week, and they showed that Alabama is favored by 1 to 2 points, so if you go by our ratings, the play would be Clemson but without a lot of confidence.  As for the Total, our estimate is basically right on the line, so we would lay off the total unless you tease it.

 

The PiRate Ratings NFL Wildcard Playoff Teasers

Once playoff season begins, there are fewer and fewer chances to play our successful teasers, but 2018 was a very good one for us, as our NFL Teasers returned a neat little imaginary profit.  We hope you understand that our wagering is only hypothetical, as no real currency ever changes hands, and we highly encourage you not to lose your mortgage payment by relying on our selections.

We have two 13-point teaser selections for this week’s Wildcard Round.  One is a four-team parlay on sides, and one is a four-team parlay on totals.  These parlays both have 12-10 odds.

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Indianapolis Houston 12 Houston
Dallas Seattle 15 Seattle
Baltimore L.A. Chargers 16 L.A. Chargers
Chicago Philadelphia 19.5 Philadelphia

 

Team Team Total Pick
Houston Indianapolis 61.5 UNDER
Dallas Seattle 30 OVER
Baltimore L.A. Chargers 28.5 OVER
Chicago Philadelphia 28 OVER

 

December 31, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for The Wildcard Playoff Round: January 5-6, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Houston Indianapolis 2.0 2.7 2.1 49.5
Dallas Seattle -1.6 -1.9 -2.8 44.5
Baltimore L.A. Chargers 2.6 2.4 2.4 43
Chicago Philadelphia 5.5 5.5 6.4 44.5

The Wildcard Playoff Schedule

Saturday,  January 5, 2019

4:35 PM Eastern Standard Time

TV: ESPN

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

 

8:15 PM Eastern Standard Time

TV: Fox Network

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys

 

Sunday, January 6, 2109

1:05 PM Eastern Standard Time

TV: CBS

Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens

 

4:40 PM Eastern Standard Time

TV: NBC

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears

 

For the Divisional Playoff Round

The lower remaining seed in the AFC will play at Kansas City on Saturday, January 12, on NBC at 4:35 PM EST

 

The higher remaining seed in the NFC will play at the Los Angeles Rams on Saturday, January 12, on Fox Network at 8:15 PM EST

 

The higher remaining seed in the AFC will play at New England on Sunday, January 13, on CBS at 1:05 PM EST

 

The lower remaining seed in the NFC will play at New Orleans on Sunday, January 13, on Fox Network at 4:40 PM EST

Ratings of the Playoff Teams

Playoff Team PiRate Mean Bias Avg. Total W-L
New Orleans 112.3 112.3 112.3 112.3 27 13-3
Kansas City 106.8 107.0 106.6 106.8 30.5 12-4
LA Rams 106.5 106.7 106.3 106.5 29 13-3
Chicago 104.9 105.1 105.8 105.3 21.5 12-4
New England 105.0 105.1 104.9 105.0 22.5 11-5
Seattle 104.6 104.7 105.2 104.8 24 10-6
LA Chargers 104.3 105.0 104.8 104.7 23 12-4
Baltimore 104.5 104.9 104.7 104.7 20 10-6
Indianapolis 102.9 102.3 103.3 102.8 25.5 10-6
Houston 102.4 102.5 103.0 102.6 24 11-5
Philadelphia 102.4 102.6 102.5 102.5 23 9-7
Dallas 100.5 100.3 99.9 100.2 20.5 10-6

 

Note: The College Basketball Bracket Gurus will debut next week.  Most of the gurus are enjoying vacations this week and did not submit their data to us.

December 18, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 16: December 20-24, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Tennessee Washington 6.9 7.5 6.8 41.5
L.A. Chargers Baltimore 4.8 5.2 5.4 44.5
Dallas Tampa Bay 7.2 6.8 5.7 44.5
Indianapolis N.Y. Giants 9.0 8.5 9.4 47.5
Philadelphia Houston 3.2 3.4 2.7 46.5
Miami Jacksonville -0.2 0.1 0.3 42
N.Y. Jets Green Bay -2.4 -3.3 -2.7 48
Cleveland Cincinnati 4.8 4.8 5.6 47.5
Detroit Minnesota -1.2 -1.5 -1.6 44.5
New England Buffalo 15.5 15.8 15.6 39.5
Carolina Atlanta 3.5 3.5 4.0 50
San Francisco Chicago -6.7 -6.7 -7.7 45
Arizona L.A. Rams -10.5 -11.4 -10.9 47
New Orleans Pittsburgh 8.0 7.8 8.0 50.5
Seattle Kansas City -0.2 -0.3 0.5 52.5
Oakland Denver -6.2 -6.0 -6.2 41

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 105.2 105.4 105.2 105.3 22.5 9-5
N. Y. Jets 94.9 94.4 94.5 94.6 24 4-10
Miami 94.6 94.3 94.4 94.4 23.5 7-7
Buffalo 92.7 92.7 92.6 92.6 17 5-9
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 107.0 107.2 107.1 107.1 24 8-5-1
Baltimore 103.3 103.6 103.3 103.4 20.5 8-6
Cleveland 97.5 97.8 98.3 97.9 24 6-7-1
Cincinnati 95.3 95.5 95.1 95.3 23.5 6-8
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Indianapolis 103.1 102.5 103.5 103.0 25 8-6
Houston 102.3 102.4 102.9 102.5 24 10-4
Tennessee 98.7 98.8 98.6 98.7 19.5 8-6
Jacksonville 96.7 96.2 96.1 96.3 18.5 4-10
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 107.3 107.5 107.1 107.3 30 11-3
LA Chargers 105.0 105.8 105.7 105.5 24 11-3
Denver 99.8 99.7 99.7 99.7 19.5 6-8
Oakland 91.1 91.2 91.0 91.1 21.5 3-11
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 102.5 102.7 102.6 102.6 22.5 7-7
Dallas 100.6 100.4 100.0 100.3 19.5 8-6
N.Y. Giants 97.0 97.0 97.2 97.1 22.5 5-9
Washington 94.4 93.8 94.3 94.2 22 7-7
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Chicago 105.0 105.2 105.9 105.4 23 10-4
Minnesota 102.5 102.5 102.3 102.4 21 7-6-1
Green Bay 99.8 100.2 99.7 99.9 24 5-8-1
Detroit 98.8 98.6 98.2 98.5 23.5 5-9
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 112.5 112.5 112.6 112.5 26.5 12-2
Carolina 100.7 100.3 100.6 100.5 24 6-8
Atlanta 99.6 99.4 99.2 99.4 26 5-9
Tampa Bay 95.9 96.1 96.8 96.3 25 5-9
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 105.7 105.9 105.5 105.7 28.5 11-3
Seattle 104.1 104.2 104.7 104.3 22.5 8-6
San Francisco 95.4 95.4 95.2 95.3 22 4-10
Arizona 92.7 92.1 92.0 92.3 18.5 3-11

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

These projections are not to be confused with how the seedings would be if the playoffs started today.  They forecast the final two weeks of games.

AFC Seeding
1 L.A. Chargers
2 New England
3 Houston
4 Pittsburgh
5 Kansas City
6 Tennessee

 

NFC Seeding
1 New Orleans
2 L.A. Rams
3 Chicago
4 Dallas
5 Seattle
6 Minnesota

 

Playoff Projections

Wildcard Round
Houston over Tennessee
Pittsburgh over Kansas City
Chicago over Minnesota
Seattle over Dallas

 

Divisional Round
L.A. Chargers over Houston
New England over Pittsburgh
New Orleans over Seattle
Chicago over L.A. Rams

 

Conference Championships
L.A. Chargers over New England
New Orleans over Chicago

 

Super Bowl LIII
L.A. Chargers over New Orleans

 

What Would Happen If…

There is a chance that both the Los Angeles Rams and the Los Angeles Chargers could host their conference championship games.  There has always been a chance that the New York Jets and New York Giants could one year host their conference championship games.  In the future, once they occupy the same new colossus mega stadium, the Rams and Chargers could host their conference championship games in the same year.

Conference Championship Games are always on Sundays.  What that means, is there is maybe a 5% chance that the Rams and Chargers could end up hosting on this day.  While it would be okay having both networks in the City of Angels on the same day for separate games, once these teams share a home field (and if the world ever comes to an end and the Jets and Giants host conference championship games), it will not be possible to have doubleheaders on the same field on the same day.

Can you imagine the logistical nightmare it would cause to have the AFC Championship Game at 10 AM Pacific Time, followed by the NFC Championship at 1:30 PM Pacific Time on the same field?  First of all, it would be impossible.  Everybody in the stands would have to be escorted out of the stadium, before ticket holders for the second game could enter.  There would be about 15 to 20 minutes max for this to happen.  Like I said, this is impossible.

Next, the field itself would have to be transformed with new logos, as well as having any field damage repaired.  In the case of a game in East Rutherford, NJ, what if the weather conditions were 35 degrees with rain?  After 60 minutes of action, the next game would inherit very sloppy field conditions.  I did say impossible.

Now, what if the first game ended regulation with the game tied, and this game became a repeat of the 1971 Miami-Kansas City game at the old Municipal Stadium up on the hill in Kansas City.   What if the first game didn’t end until 2:30 PM Pacific Time?  The second game network would have to fill over an hour of time waiting for a game to end, when 99.9% of the football watching public would be tuned to the other game.  Once again, it is impossible.

I haven’t even mentioned that the teams in the second game need time to warm up on the field.  15 to 20 minutes is not enough.  They need at least an hour.  If you have to make a decision a week before to change the start times of the games, the network brass at CBS and Fox get very upset.  They cannot just make impromptu changes to their schedule a week in advance.  Only very important breaking news makes it okay to alter a TV schedule one week in advance.  The networks would say “impossible.”

However impossible it is, there is a chance that it could happen.  So what would happen if it did?  Yes, there is a contingency plan in place to cover this possibility.  If the same stadium is to host both conference championship games, one will be moved to Monday Night.  Yep, there could be a conference championship on Monday Night Football, but it would not be the regular MNF crew or network.  If it was the AFC game, it would be on CBS, and if it was the NFC game, it would be on Fox.

You might ask, has a network other than ABC or ESPN ever televised a Monday Night game?  The answer is “yes.”

It is a misnomer to believe that Monday Night Football on ABC in 1970 was the first time that NFL games were played and televised on Monday night.  Before there was MNF featuring Howard Cosell, CBS televised a handful of NFL games on Monday night during the 1960’s.  The games started at 9:30 PM Eastern Time, but because games concluded in 2 1/2 hours in those days, they were finished at Midnight.  One of the best games in this group was a 1968 game between an unbeaten Dallas team and a Green Bay Packer team coached by Phil Bengston, who was not having a rough time replacing Vince Lombardi, as the Packers were 2-3-1, but still in the race in the weak NFL Central Division.

Dallas led 10-0, and Green Bay looked more like an expansion team in the opening quarter plus.   Then, the great Bart Starr took the aging Packers on his shoulder and guided them back like it was 1966 again.  Starr threw three touchdown passes in the next quarter plus, and Green Bay took a 21-10 lead.  Starr threw another TD pass in the fourth quarter, and the Packers once again owned the Cowboys with a 28-17 win.

The American Football League also played a couple of Monday Night games in the 1960s, televised on NBC.  One notable game involved Broadway Joe Namath and the New York Jets playing host to the Houston Oilers in a game that would put the winner in first place in the AFL East at the midway point of the season.  Namath was victimized with a pick six by Zeke Moore early in the game, and he was somewhat of a disappointment that night with additional interceptions, but he also completed multiple long bomb passes to speedster Don Maynard, and the Jets pulled out the victory thanks to Jim Turner kicking four field goals, a couple from near midfield (goalposts were on the goalline then and not on the end line like today).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

October 2, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 5: October 4-8, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
New England Indianapolis 12.0 14.1 11.9 43.5
Buffalo Tennessee -2.8 -2.9 -2.8 37
Pittsburgh Atlanta 2.9 2.9 2.0 46.5
N.Y. Jets Denver 2.4 2.2 2.7 44.5
Kansas City Jacksonville 4.6 5.2 4.7 47.5
Detroit Green Bay 2.7 1.8 3.2 49.5
Cleveland Baltimore -5.0 -5.7 -4.5 47
Carolina N.Y. Giants 9.1 8.8 9.7 41.5
Cincinnati Miami 5.5 6.6 5.6 44.5
L.A. Chargers Oakland 8.7 9.0 8.5 45.5
San Francisco Arizona 3.7 5.4 4.4 42
Philadelphia Minnesota 2.9 2.6 2.5 44
Seattle L.A. Rams -4.4 -5.9 -5.2 47.5
Houston Dallas 1.7 1.5 1.7 44
New Orleans Washington 6.6 7.6 6.8 47

Chicago and Tampa Bay have Byes

This Week’s PiRate Ratings 

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 104.8 105.3 104.7 104.9 20.5 2-2
Miami 97.4 96.9 97.5 97.2 21.5 3-1
N. Y. Jets 97.3 96.9 97.1 97.1 23 1-3
Buffalo 93.4 93.4 93.0 93.2 16.5 1-3
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Baltimore 103.8 104.5 104.0 104.1 23 3-1
Pittsburgh 103.4 103.3 102.6 103.1 22.5 1-2-1
Cincinnati 99.9 100.4 100.0 100.1 23 3-1
Cleveland 96.2 96.3 97.0 96.5 24 1-2-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 104.0 103.9 104.4 104.1 21 3-1
Tennessee 98.6 98.8 98.3 98.6 20.5 3-1
Houston 98.4 98.2 97.9 98.1 24.5 1-3
Indianapolis 95.8 94.3 95.8 95.3 23 1-3
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 105.7 106.1 106.0 105.9 26.5 4-0
LA Chargers 100.4 101.1 100.4 100.7 23.5 2-2
Denver 98.0 97.7 97.4 97.7 21.5 2-2
Oakland 94.7 95.1 94.9 94.9 22 1-3
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 101.5 101.5 101.0 101.3 22.5 2-2
Washington 101.4 100.4 101.4 101.1 21.5 2-1
Dallas 99.2 99.1 98.7 99.0 19.5 2-2
N.Y. Giants 96.5 96.4 96.5 96.5 19.5 1-3
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Chicago 102.2 101.9 102.9 102.3 20.5 3-1
Minnesota 101.7 101.9 101.5 101.7 21.5 1-2-1
Detroit 100.1 100.1 100.2 100.1 26 1-3
Green Bay 99.9 100.8 99.6 100.1 23.5 2-1-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 105.0 105.0 105.2 105.1 25.5 3-1
Atlanta 103.5 103.5 103.6 103.5 24 1-3
Carolina 102.7 102.2 103.1 102.7 22 2-1
Tampa Bay 94.9 94.7 95.4 95.0 24 2-2
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 108.3 109.4 109.0 108.9 25.5 4-0
Seattle 100.9 100.5 100.8 100.7 22 2-2
San Francisco 95.9 96.5 96.1 96.2 23.5 1-3
Arizona 94.7 93.7 94.2 94.2 18.5 0-4

 

Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Kansas City
2 New England
3 Cincinnati
4 Tennessee
5 Baltimore
6 Jacksonville

 

NFC Seeding
1 L.A. Rams
2 New Orleans
3 Chicago
4 Philadelphia
5 Carolina
6 Green Bay

 

Wildcard Round
Jacksonville over Cincinnati
Baltimore over Tennessee
Green Bay over Chicago
Philadelphia over Carolina

 

Divisional Round
Kansas City over Jacksonville
Baltimore over New England
Los Angeles over Green Bay
Philadelphia over New Orleans

 

Conference Championship
Kansas City over Baltimore
Los Angeles over Philadelphia

 

Super Bowl 53
Los Angeles over Kansas City

 

 

 

December 26, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 17: December 31, 2017

Week 17 PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Baltimore Cincinnati 13.1 12.6 13.6 38
Detroit Green Bay 3.2 3.0 3.7 46
Miami Buffalo 1.8 1.6 1.3 41
Atlanta Carolina 3.3 3.8 3.0 50
Tampa Bay New Orleans -7.9 -7.3 -8.0 49
Tennessee Jacksonville -2.4 -2.2 -2.8 45
New England N.Y. Jets 16.4 16.9 16.5 39
Indianapolis Houston 3.3 3.4 3.5 44
Pittsburgh Cleveland 18.8 18.3 21.8 39
N.Y. Giants Washington -4.9 -4.6 -5.0 42
Minnesota Chicago 12.7 12.3 13.4 34
Philadelphia Dallas 6.9 6.0 8.0 46
LA Chargers Oakland 9.3 8.4 10.2 44
Seattle Arizona 8.7 8.9 8.3 41
Denver Kansas City -6.0 -6.1 -6.4 42
LA Rams San Francisco 13.7 13.3 14.1 50

Current PiRate Ratings–12/26/2017

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 108.3 108.4 108.4 108.3 23 12-3
Buffalo 96.0 96.3 96.1 96.1 20 8-7
Miami 95.8 95.9 95.3 95.7 21 6-9
N. Y. Jets 94.3 94.0 94.4 94.3 16 5-10
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 107.0 107.1 107.2 107.1 23 12-3
Baltimore 105.5 105.7 105.6 105.6 22 9-6
Cincinnati 95.3 96.1 94.9 95.5 16 6-9
Cleveland 90.7 91.4 87.9 90.0 16 0-15
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 103.3 103.2 103.4 103.3 23 10-5
Tennessee 97.8 98.0 97.6 97.8 22 8-7
Indianapolis 92.3 92.7 91.8 92.3 22 4-11
Houston 91.0 91.2 90.4 90.9 22 3-12
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Chargers 104.5 104.1 104.7 104.4 23 8-7
Kansas City 103.1 103.2 103.5 103.3 23 9-6
Oakland 97.7 98.3 97.0 97.7 21 6-9
Denver 95.2 95.0 95.1 95.1 19 5-10
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 106.7 105.4 107.7 106.6 23 13-2
Dallas 101.8 101.4 101.7 101.7 23 8-7
Washington 98.4 98.6 98.2 98.4 24 7-8
N.Y. Giants 91.5 92.0 91.2 91.6 18 2-13
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Minnesota 107.4 107.0 108.1 107.5 18 12-3
Detroit 99.4 99.7 99.2 99.5 27 8-7
Green Bay 98.2 98.7 97.5 98.1 19 7-8
Chicago 96.7 96.8 96.7 96.7 16 5-10
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 107.4 106.8 107.9 107.4 28 11-4
Atlanta 103.9 103.7 104.1 103.9 24 9-6
Carolina 103.2 102.4 103.5 103.0 26 11-4
Tampa Bay 97.5 97.5 97.9 97.6 21 4-11
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 107.3 106.6 107.9 107.3 25 11-4
Seattle 102.9 103.0 102.3 102.7 20 9-6
Arizona 97.2 97.1 97.0 97.1 21 7-8
San Francisco 96.1 95.8 96.3 96.1 25 5-10

Playoff Scenarios

You can go to any sports site online to see the generic playoff scenarios, where you can see what must happen for each potential playoff team to earn their spot.  Let’s take a look at the logical scenarios in the order that they are most likely to occur.

AFC

Baltimore

The Ravens have the overwhelming advantage among the teams vying for the two wildcard spots.  The 4 division championships have been clinched.  Baltimore is the number 5 seed if they win at home over Cincinnati Sunday.  The Ravens have about a 75% chance of winning this game and getting in at #5.  Even if the Ravens lose to the Bengals, if Either Buffalo or Tennessee lose but not both, the Ravens still get in as the number 6 seed.  If Baltimore loses, and both Buffalo and Tennessee lose, then Baltimore stays at number 5.

Baltimore falls out of the playoffs only if they lose to Cincinnati, and both Buffalo and Tennessee win.  The Ravens have about a 95% chance of making the playoffs.

Tennessee

The Titans have the best chance of making the playoffs as the 6-seed (or even 5-seed) of the remaining contenders.  If Tennessee beats Jacksonville on Sunday, the Titans are in as the 6-seed if Baltimore wins, and the 5-seed if Baltimore loses.  What Buffalo does in this instance does not affect the Titans moving up to number 5; only what Baltimore does affects the Titans seeding if they beat a Jacksonville team that has nothing to play for (3-seed win or lose) and will most likely rest their key players.

Tennessee can still make the playoffs at 8-8 if Buffalo and the LA Chargers lose.  They hold all tiebreakers over the Bills and Chargers.

Tennessee misses out on the playoffs if the Titans lose to the Jaguars and either Buffalo or the Chargers win.  The Titans chances for making the playoffs are about 55%.

Los Angeles Chargers

This is where the scenarios get a little tricky.  First, the Chargers can only get in the playoffs if they win and Tennessee loses.  However, they still need some help.  Either Baltimore must also win or Buffalo must lose, or else the Chargers will be eliminated.  If Buffalo and Baltimore win, then the Chargers get in over the Bills, but if Buffalo wins and Baltimore loses, then the Bills take the 6-seed.  Of course, if Tennessee and Buffalo lose, and the Chargers win, then the Chargers make it over both the Titans and Bills.  The Chargers have about a 37.5% chance of making the playoffs under these scenarios.

Buffalo

The Bills are on life support with only a 1 in 10 chance of making the playoffs.  There are at least two different sets of scenarios that will get the Bills in.  If they win at Miami in what will most likely be Jay Cutler’s real swan song, then they can get in if Baltimore loses, which will then eliminate the Chargers.  They would move up to a 5-seed in this scenario if Tennessee loses or gets the 6-seed if Tennessee wins.

The Bills will also make it as the 6-seed if they win and both Tennessee and the LA Chargers lose.  They can then earn the 5-seed if Baltimore also loses.

Top Seed

New England holds the tiebreaker over Pittsburgh, so the only way the Steelers can get the top seed is for the Jets to beat the Pats, while the Steelers send Cleveland to 0-16.

 

NFC

Philadelphia has clinched the top seed.  If Minnesota beats Chicago in Minneapolis, the Vikings get the 2-seed.  Minnesota can still get the 2-seed, if they lose to the Bears, and they will still get the 2-seed unless Carolina wins, New Orleans, loses, and the Rams lose. Then, Carolina would get this seed.  Chances are better than 95% that Minnesota gets the 2-seed.

For the 3-seed, the LA Rams hold the tiebreaker over New Orleans and Carolina, while New Orleans holds the tiebreaker over Carolina.

The 5-seed will go to either Carolina or New Orleans, whichever does not win the NFC South (New Orleans has about a 60% chance and Carolina a 40% chance).

The 6-seed is what is up for grabs

Atlanta

The Falcons earn this spot with a win over Carolina or a Seattle loss to Arizona.

Seattle

The Seahawks must win and Atlanta must lose.

Here are our Playoff Projections for this week.

AFC Seeding
1 New England
2 Pittsburgh
3 Jacksonville
4 Kansas City
5 Baltimore
6 Tennessee
NFC Seeding
1 Philadelphia
2 Minnesota
3 LA Rams
4 New Orleans
5 Carolina
6 Atlanta
Wildcard Round
Kansas City over Baltimore
Jacksonville over Tennessee
Carolina over New Orleans
LA Rams over Atlanta
 
Divisional Round
New England over Kansas City
Jacksonville over Pittsburgh
Carolina over Philadelphia
LA Rams over Minnesota
 
Conference Championship
New England over Jacksonville
LA Rams over Carolina
 
Super Bowl 52
LA Rams over New England

 

 

 

Older Posts »

Create a free website or blog at WordPress.com.