The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 8, 2023

PiRate Ratings NFL–Wildcard Round, January 14-16, 2023

Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
BuffaloMiami11.711.411.6
CincinnatiBaltimore7.07.78.4
JacksonvilleLA Chargers3.63.73.6
MinnesotaN.Y. Giants5.44.34.1
San FranciscoSeattle9.59.89.7
Tampa BayDallas-2.9-3.3-3.7

Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
BuffaloMiami46
CincinnatiBaltimore42.5
JacksonvilleLA Chargers48
MinnesotaN.Y. Giants47.5
San FranciscoSeattle42.5
Tampa BayDallas47.5

Final Regular Season PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo109.0108.7108.5108.723.513-3
New England103.1102.9103.1103.0208-9
Miami100.3100.399.9100.222.59-8
N.Y. Jets98.799.198.798.816.57-10
NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Cincinnati106.2106.4106.9106.525.512-4
Baltimore102.3101.7101.5101.81710-7
Pittsburgh100.4100.7101.2100.818.59-8
Cleveland99.498.999.199.1217-10
SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Jacksonville101.7102.6102.5102.3239-8
Tennessee95.395.595.495.418.57-10
Indianapolis92.492.291.992.2214-12-1
Houston89.991.090.690.520.53-13-1
WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City109.7109.2108.7109.228.514-3
LA Chargers101.1101.9101.8101.62510-7
Las Vegas98.898.898.698.725.56-11
Denver97.598.197.097.5175-12
N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas105.9105.6105.9105.82612-5
Philadelphia106.0105.3105.3105.52514-3
N.Y. Giants97.598.498.798.2209-7-1
Washington96.996.496.796.717.58-8-1
NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay102.9102.4102.8102.722.58-9
Detroit100.0100.7101.1100.6269-8
Minnesota99.999.799.999.827.513-4
Chicago90.590.790.390.5213-14
SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
New Orleans101.1100.2100.6100.617.57-10
Tampa Bay100.099.399.399.521.58-9
Carolina98.198.498.698.421.57-10
Atlanta95.495.795.695.5237-10
WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
San Francisco105.9106.2106.7106.22113-4
Seattle99.399.4100.099.621.59-8
LA Rams99.398.898.598.9205-12
Arizona95.295.094.795.0244-13

Playoff Projections (not using PiRate Ratings)

Wildcard Round
Buffalo over Miami
Cincinnati over Baltimore
LA Chargers over Jacksonville
San Francisco over Seattle
N.Y. Giants over Minnesota
Dallas over Tampa Bay

Divisional Round
Kansas City over LA Chargers
Buffalo over Cincinnati
N.Y. Giants over Philadelphia
San Francisco over Dallas

Conference Championship
Kansas City over Buffalo
San Francisco over N.Y. Giants

Super Bowl 57 (Glendale, AZ)
Kansas City over San Francisco

December 19, 2022

PiRate Ratings NFL for Week 16: December 24-26, 2022

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
N.Y. JetsJacksonville5.14.64.4
BaltimoreAtlanta11.010.210.0
CarolinaDetroit0.50.1-0.4
ChicagoBuffalo-15.3-14.8-14.8
ClevelandNew Orleans3.34.03.9
Kansas CitySeattle14.814.313.4
MinnesotaN.Y. Giants9.08.08.2
New EnglandCincinnati-0.4-0.5-0.8
TennesseeHouston8.77.68.0
San FranciscoWashington9.310.210.2
DallasPhiladelphia1.31.41.4
PittsburghLas Vegas2.22.43.0
MiamiGreen Bay2.13.12.3
LA RamsDenver2.01.12.0
ArizonaTampa Bay-0.60.30.4
IndianapolisLA Chargers1.00.00.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
N.Y. JetsJacksonville43.5
BaltimoreAtlanta42.5
CarolinaDetroit47
ChicagoBuffalo44.5
ClevelandNew Orleans42.5
Kansas CitySeattle53
MinnesotaN.Y. Giants47
New EnglandCincinnati45
TennesseeHouston38.5
San FranciscoWashington36
DallasPhiladelphia51
PittsburghLas Vegas45.5
MiamiGreen Bay46
LA RamsDenver34
ArizonaTampa Bay45.5
IndianapolisLA Chargers46.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo111.0110.7110.4110.72311-3
New England103.5103.4103.6103.519.57-7
N.Y. Jets101.3101.8101.5101.519.57-7
Miami100.4100.6100.2100.423.58-6

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Cincinnati106.3106.4106.9106.525.510-4
Baltimore103.5103.0102.8103.118.59-5
Cleveland99.699.199.499.422.56-8
Pittsburgh98.698.899.298.9206-8

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Jacksonville98.799.799.699.3246-8
Tennessee96.496.596.496.418.57-7
Indianapolis95.995.795.895.8214-9-1
Houston90.291.490.990.8201-12-1

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City109.6109.1108.8109.22911-3
Las Vegas99.499.499.299.325.56-8
Denver99.099.698.599.0154-10
LA Chargers97.998.798.398.325.58-6

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Philadelphia108.0107.5107.7107.725.513-1
Dallas106.3105.9106.1106.125.510-4
Washington97.697.197.597.4187-6-1
N.Y. Giants95.296.196.295.8208-5-1

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Minnesota101.2101.1101.5101.22711-3
Green Bay101.3100.5100.9100.922.56-8
Detroit98.399.099.598.9267-7
Chicago93.193.493.193.221.53-11

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay100.099.098.899.3216-8
New Orleans99.398.298.598.7205-9
Carolina96.396.696.696.5215-9
Atlanta95.095.495.395.2245-9

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
San Francisco104.0104.3104.7104.31810-4
LA Rams98.698.197.998.2194-10
Seattle97.897.898.498.0247-7
Arizona96.496.396.196.324.54-10

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1Buffalo
2Kansas City
3Cincinnati
4Jacksonville
5Baltimore
6Miami
7LA Chargers
NFC Seeding
1Philadelphia
2Minnesota
3San Francisco
4Tampa Bay
5Dallas
6New York Giants
7Detroit

Wildcard Round
Kansas City over LA Chargers
Cincinnati over Miami
Jacksonville over Baltimore
Detroit over Minnesota
San Francisco over N.Y. Giants
Dallas over Tampa Bay

Divisional Round
Buffalo over Jacksonville
Cincinnati over Kansas City
Philadelphia over Detroit
San Francisco over Dallas

Conference Championship
Cincinnati over Buffalo
Philadelphia over San Francisco

Super Bowl 57 (Glendale, AZ)
Philadelphia over Cincinnati

December 5, 2022

PiRate Ratings NFL Week 14–December 8-12, 2022

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
Las VegasLA Rams3.64.34.0
BuffaloN.Y. Jets11.711.011.2
CincinnatiCleveland7.98.48.5
DallasHouston20.919.320.9
DetroitMinnesota-4.3-3.9-4.3
N.Y. GiantsPhiladelphia-8.7-7.3-7.4
PittsburghBaltimore-4.6-4.3-4.1
TennesseeJacksonville4.94.24.6
LA ChargersMiami0.20.60.5
San FranciscoTampa Bay1.02.32.8
SeattleCarolina6.76.77.6
DenverKansas City-9.2-8.2-9.6
ArizonaNew England-2.0-1.8-2.1

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Margins

HomeVisitorTotal
Las VegasLA Rams45.5
BuffaloN.Y. Jets44
CincinnatiCleveland49.5
DallasHouston43.5
DetroitMinnesota52
N.Y. GiantsPhiladelphia43
PittsburghBaltimore41
TennesseeJacksonville41
LA ChargersMiami50.5
San FranciscoTampa Bay38.5
SeattleCarolina44.5
DenverKansas City42
ArizonaNew England43.5

Week 14 Byes

Indianapolis
Washington
Chicago
Green Bay
Atlanta
New Orleans

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo111.5111.3111.2111.3239-3
New England102.7102.6102.9102.7196-6
N.Y. Jets102.3102.8102.5102.5217-5
Miami100.4100.7100.3100.523.58-4

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Cincinnati105.0105.0105.4105.1258-4
Baltimore104.7104.4104.4104.520.58-4
Cleveland99.198.698.998.924.55-7
Pittsburgh98.198.198.398.220.55-7

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tennessee98.598.798.798.618.57-5
Jacksonville95.696.596.196.122.54-8
Indianapolis95.395.094.995.119.54-8-1
Houston89.090.289.389.519.51-10-1

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City110.4109.9110.0110.1289-3
Las Vegas99.499.599.199.325.55-7
Denver98.799.297.998.6143-9
LA Chargers97.698.397.897.9276-6

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas108.4108.0108.6108.3249-3
Philadelphia106.8106.4106.6106.62411-1
Washington98.097.598.097.918.57-5-1
N.Y. Giants96.297.197.296.8197-4-1

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Minnesota102.8102.9103.6103.12610-2
Green Bay100.799.8100.1100.222.55-8
Detroit96.096.596.896.4265-7
Chicago92.592.792.392.521.53-10

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay103.3102.3102.1102.6206-6
New Orleans99.298.198.598.6204-9
Carolina95.796.095.995.920.55-7
Atlanta94.594.994.794.7245-8

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
San Francisco101.4101.6101.9101.618.58-4
Seattle99.499.6100.599.9247-5
LA Rams98.898.298.198.4203-9
Arizona97.797.897.797.724.54-8

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1Buffalo
2Kansas City
3Baltimore
4Tennessee
5Cincinnati
6Miami
7Las Vegas

NFC Seeding
1Philadelphia
2Minnesota
3San Francisco
4Tampa Bay
5Dallas
6Washington
7New York Giants

Wildcard Round
Kansas City over Las Vegas
Miami over Baltimore
Cincinnati over Tennessee
Minnesota over N.Y. Giants
Washington over San Francisco
Dallas over Tampa Bay

Divisional Round
Buffalo over Miami
Kansas City over Cincinnati
Philadelphia over Washington
Dallas over Minnesota

Conference Championship
Buffalo over Kansas City
Philadelphia over Dallas

Super Bowl 57 (Glendale, AZ)
Philadelphia over Buffalo

November 28, 2022

PiRate Ratings Pro Football–Week 13: December 1-5, 2022

This Week’s Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
New EnglandBuffalo-5.7-5.3-4.6
AtlantaPittsburgh-0.4-0.1-0.4
BaltimoreDenver9.58.910.5
ChicagoGreen Bay-5.3-4.0-4.5
DetroitJacksonville0.80.10.7
HoustonCleveland-7.0-5.0-5.9
MinnesotaN.Y. Jets3.32.73.5
N.Y. GiantsWashington0.62.31.9
PhiladelphiaTennessee8.67.77.7
LA RamsSeattle2.61.90.9
San FranciscoMiami6.36.06.5
CincinnatiKansas City-3.5-3.2-2.9
Las VegasLA Chargers3.92.92.8
DallasIndianapolis12.112.012.7
Tampa BayNew Orleans7.27.57.1

This Week’s Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
New EnglandBuffalo43
AtlantaPittsburgh45.5
BaltimoreDenver36.5
ChicagoGreen Bay44
DetroitJacksonville48
HoustonCleveland44
MinnesotaN.Y. Jets47
N.Y. GiantsWashington37.5
PhiladelphiaTennessee42.5
LA RamsSeattle43
San FranciscoMiami41.5
CincinnatiKansas City53
Las VegasLA Chargers53
DallasIndianapolis41.5
Tampa BayNew Orleans41

Byes This Week

Arizona

Carolina

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo111.1110.8110.5110.823.58-3
New England102.9102.9103.4103.119.56-5
N.Y. Jets102.3102.9102.7102.6217-4
Miami100.9101.3101.0101.1238-3

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore104.9104.6104.8104.821.57-4
Cincinnati104.6104.5104.9104.7257-4
Cleveland98.898.198.398.424.54-7
Pittsburgh97.997.998.198.0214-7

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tennessee99.9100.2100.3100.118.57-4
Jacksonville96.897.897.597.422.54-7
Indianapolis97.296.996.897.018.54-7-1
Houston89.390.789.989.919.51-9-1

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City110.6110.2110.3110.4289-2
Las Vegas99.199.098.598.9264-7
LA Chargers97.798.698.298.2276-5
Denver98.398.897.398.1153-8

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas106.3105.9106.5106.2238-3
Philadelphia105.4104.9105.0105.12410-1
Washington97.997.397.897.718.57-5
N.Y. Giants96.197.197.296.8197-4

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Minnesota102.6102.6103.2102.8269-2
Green Bay100.499.499.699.822.54-8
Detroit94.695.095.294.925.54-7
Chicago92.692.992.692.721.53-9

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay103.5102.6102.5102.920.55-6
New Orleans98.897.697.998.120.54-8
Carolina95.395.695.595.520.55-7
Atlanta94.594.994.794.724.55-7

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
San Francisco104.2104.3104.5104.318.57-4
Seattle98.999.1100.099.423.56-5
LA Rams99.198.598.498.719.53-8
Arizona97.297.397.297.224.54-8

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1Kansas City
2Miami
3Cincinnati
4Tennessee
5Buffalo
6Baltimore
7New York Jets

NFC Seeding
1Philadelphia
2Minnesota
3San Francisco
4Carolina
5Dallas
6Washington
7New York Giants

Wildcard Round
Miami over New York Jets
Cincinnati over Baltimore
Buffalo over Tennessee
Minnesota over New York Giants
San Francisco over Washington
Dallas over Carolina

Divisional Round
Kansas City over Buffalo
Miami over Cincinnati
Philadelphia over Dallas
San Francisco over Minnesota

Conference Championship
Miami over Kansas City
San Francisco over Philadelphia

Super Bowl 57 (Glendale, AZ)
Miami over San Francisco

November 21, 2022

PiRate Ratings — NFL For Week 12: November 24-28, 2022

This Week’s Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
DetroitBuffalo-14.8-14.3-14.0
DallasN.Y. Giants13.612.213.1
MinnesotaNew England2.32.12.0
CarolinaDenver-2.6-3.0-1.6
ClevelandTampa Bay-1.9-1.8-1.8
JacksonvilleBaltimore-6.4-5.1-6.0
MiamiHouston14.613.214.0
N.Y. JetsChicago11.211.411.2
TennesseeCincinnati-1.6-0.7-1.0
WashingtonAtlanta6.45.56.2
ArizonaLA Chargers2.92.32.8
SeattleLas Vegas3.23.55.3
Kansas CityLA Rams14.314.514.7
San FranciscoNew Orleans8.09.39.0
PhiladelphiaGreen Bay8.08.78.6
IndianapolisPittsburgh4.34.14.2

This Week’s Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
DetroitBuffalo49
DallasN.Y. Giants42
MinnesotaNew England44.5
CarolinaDenver35.5
ClevelandTampa Bay45
JacksonvilleBaltimore43
MiamiHouston42.5
N.Y. JetsChicago42.5
TennesseeCincinnati44.5
WashingtonAtlanta44
ArizonaLA Chargers51.5
SeattleLas Vegas47.5
Kansas CityLA Rams48.5
San FranciscoNew Orleans42
PhiladelphiaGreen Bay43.5
IndianapolisPittsburgh39.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo111.5111.3111.1111.323.57-3
New England103.1103.2103.8103.4196-4
N.Y. Jets101.6102.1101.8101.8216-4
Miami100.9101.1100.9101.0237-3
NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore105.3105.0105.4105.2217-3
Cincinnati104.5104.2104.6104.425.56-4
Cleveland98.797.998.098.224.53-7
Pittsburgh96.996.896.996.9213-7
SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tennessee100.0100.5100.6100.3197-3
Indianapolis98.298.098.098.118.54-6-1
Jacksonville96.497.496.996.9223-7
Houston89.390.990.090.019.51-8-1
WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City110.5110.1110.2110.328.58-2
Denver99.6100.298.799.5153-7
Las Vegas98.998.898.198.6253-7
LA Chargers97.598.397.897.9275-5

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas106.5106.1106.9106.5237-3
Philadelphia105.4105.0105.1105.222.59-1
Washington97.997.397.897.7196-5
N.Y. Giants95.996.996.896.5197-3
NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Minnesota102.4102.3102.8102.525.58-2
Green Bay100.499.399.599.7214-7
Detroit94.294.594.694.425.54-6
Chicago93.393.793.593.521.53-8
SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay103.6102.8102.8103.120.55-5
New Orleans99.097.898.298.3224-7
Atlanta94.594.994.794.7255-6
Carolina94.094.294.194.120.54-7
WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
San Francisco104.0104.1104.2104.1206-4
Seattle99.199.3100.499.622.56-4
LA Rams99.298.698.598.8203-7
Arizona97.497.697.697.524.54-7

Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1Baltimore
2Kansas City
3Miami
4Tennessee
5Buffalo
6New England
7Cincinnati

NFC Seeding
1Philadelphia
2Minnesota
3San Francisco
4Tampa Bay
5Dallas
6New York Giants
7Seattle

Wildcard Round
Kansas City over Cincinnati
New England over Miami
Buffalo over Tennessee
Seattle over Minnesota
New York Giants over San Francisco
Dallas over Tampa Bay
Divisional Round
Baltimore over New England
Kansas City over Buffalo
Philadelphia over Seattle
Dallas over New York Giants
Conference Championship
Kansas City over Baltimore
Philadelphia over Dallas
Super Bowl 57 (Glendale, AZ)
Kansas City over Philadelphia

November 14, 2022

PiRate Ratings–NFL for Week 11, November 17-21, 2022

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
Green BayTennessee3.41.82.0
AtlantaChicago4.24.24.1
BaltimoreCarolina13.813.413.7
BuffaloCleveland15.716.416.1
HoustonWashington-6.1-4.0-5.4
IndianapolisPhiladelphia-4.7-4.5-4.6
New EnglandN.Y. Jets4.03.64.5
New OrleansLA Rams2.82.12.7
N.Y. GiantsDetroit4.75.45.2
DenverLas Vegas3.74.43.6
LA ChargersKansas City-10.0-8.8-9.4
MinnesotaDallas-1.1-0.8-1.2
PittsburghCincinnati-5.1-4.9-5.2
ArizonaSan Francisco-6.6-6.5-6.5

This Week’s Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
Green BayTennessee40
AtlantaChicago46.5
BaltimoreCarolina44
BuffaloCleveland48
HoustonWashington38.5
IndianapolisPhiladelphia42
New EnglandN.Y. Jets42.5
New OrleansLA Rams42
N.Y. GiantsDetroit44.5
DenverLas Vegas40
LA ChargersKansas City55.5
MinnesotaDallas49
PittsburghCincinnati43.5
Arizona San Francisco44.5

Arizona vs. San Francisco game scheduled for Mexico City.

Teams With Byes

Miami
Jacksonville
Tampa Bay
Seattle

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo111.5111.3111.1111.323.56-3
New England103.1103.2103.8103.4205-4
N.Y. Jets101.6102.1101.8101.822.56-3
Miami100.9101.1100.9101.0237-3

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore105.3105.0105.4105.2226-3
Cincinnati104.5104.2104.6104.4245-4
Cleveland98.797.998.098.224.53-6
Pittsburgh96.996.896.996.919.53-6

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tennessee100.0100.5100.6100.3196-3
Indianapolis98.298.098.098.1194-5-1
Jacksonville96.497.496.996.9223-7
Houston89.390.990.090.019.51-7-1

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City110.5110.1110.2110.328.57-2
Denver99.6100.298.799.5153-6
Las Vegas98.998.898.198.6252-7
LA Chargers97.598.397.897.9275-4

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas106.5106.1106.9106.5236-3
Philadelphia105.4105.0105.1105.2238-1
Washington97.997.397.897.7195-5
N.Y. Giants95.996.996.896.5197-2

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Minnesota102.4102.3102.8102.5268-1
Green Bay100.499.399.599.7214-6
Detroit94.294.594.694.425.53-6
Chicago93.393.793.593.521.53-7

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay103.6102.8102.8103.120.55-5
New Orleans99.097.898.298.3223-7
Atlanta94.594.994.794.7254-6
Carolina94.094.294.194.1224-6

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
San Francisco104.0104.1104.2104.1205-4
Seattle99.199.3100.499.622.56-4
LA Rams99.298.698.598.8203-6
Arizona97.497.697.697.524.54-6

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1Kansas City
2Miami
3Baltimore
4Tennessee
5New York Jets
6Buffalo
7Cincinnati
NFC Seeding
1Minnesota
2Philadelphia
3San Francisco
4Tampa Bay
5New York Giants
6Dallas
7Seattle

Wildcard Round
Miami over Cincinnati
Baltimore over Buffalo
New York Jets over Tennessee
Philadelphia over Seattle
Dallas over San Francisco
New York Giants over Tampa Bay

Divisional Round
Kansas City over New York Jets
Miami over Baltimore
Minnesota over New York Giants
Philadelphia over Dallas

Conference Championship
Kansas City over Miami
Minnesota over Philadelphia

Super Bowl 57 (Glendale, AZ)
Kansas City over Minnesota

November 7, 2022

PiRate Ratings NFL For Week 10–November 10-14, 2022

This Week’s Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
CarolinaAtlanta0.80.40.4
Tampa BaySeattle4.53.21.8
BuffaloMinnesota14.915.014.5
ChicagoDetroit1.82.32.3
Kansas CityJacksonville17.516.116.9
MiamiCleveland0.51.61.2
N.Y. GiantsHouston9.48.89.6
PittsburghNew Orleans-1.4-0.6-1.0
TennesseeDenver2.92.74.3
Las VegasIndianapolis6.26.56.0
Green BayDallas-3.4-4.0-4.7
LA RamsArizona7.56.76.8
San FranciscoLA Chargers9.99.410.3
PhiladelphiaWashington13.814.114.0

This Week’s Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
CarolinaAtlanta48
Tampa Bay Seattle44
BuffaloMinnesota47.5
ChicagoDetroit45
Kansas CityJacksonville51.5
MiamiCleveland45.5
N.Y. GiantsHouston38.5
PittsburghNew Orleans43.5
TennesseeDenver35
Las VegasIndianapolis44
Green BayDallas42
LA RamsArizona44.5
San FranciscoLA Chargers48
PhiladelphiaWashington41

Tampa Bay vs/ Seattle game played in Munich, Germany

Teams With Byes

New England
N.Y.Jets
Baltimore
Cincinnati

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo112.9112.8112.7112.822.56-2
New England102.8102.9103.5103.1205-4
N.Y. Jets101.3101.8101.5101.522.56-3
Miami98.798.998.698.7226-3

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore105.0104.7105.1104.9226-3
Cincinnati104.2103.9104.3104.1245-4
Cleveland101.1100.3100.5100.623.53-5
Pittsburgh96.095.795.895.820.52-6

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tennessee99.8100.2100.3100.119.55-3
Indianapolis97.196.896.796.9193-5-1
Jacksonville96.397.396.796.822.53-6
Houston89.591.190.290.219.51-6-1

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City110.8110.4110.6110.6296-2
Las Vegas100.3100.399.7100.1252-6
Denver99.8100.599.099.815.53-5
LA Chargers97.398.097.397.627.55-3

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Philadelphia107.3107.0107.2107.222.58-0
Dallas106.5106.1106.9106.5226-2
N.Y. Giants95.996.996.896.5196-2
Washington96.095.395.795.718.54-5

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Minnesota101.0100.8101.2101.0257-1
Green Bay100.199.099.299.4203-6
Detroit94.194.294.294.224.52-6
Chicago93.494.093.993.820.53-6

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay103.6102.7102.5102.9214-5
New Orleans100.499.499.899.9233-6
Atlanta95.095.595.495.325.54-5
Carolina93.393.493.293.322.53-6

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
San Francisco104.2104.4104.7104.420.54-4
LA Rams100.7100.1100.1100.3203-5
Seattle99.199.4100.799.8236-3
Arizona96.296.496.396.324.53-6

Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1Kansas City
2Buffalo
3Baltimore
4Tennessee
5Miami
6N.Y. Jets
7LA Chargers

NFC Seeding
1Philadelphia
2Minnesota
3Seattle
4Tampa Bay
5Dallas
6N.Y. Giants
7San Francisco

Wildcard Round
Buffalo over LA Chargers
Baltimore over N.Y. Jets
Miami over Tennessee
Minnesota over San Francisco
Seattle over N.Y. Giants
Dallas over Tampa Bay

Divisional Round
Miami over Kansas City
Baltimore over Buffalo
Philadelphia over Dallas
Seattle over Minnesota

Conference Championship
Miami over Baltimore
Philadelphia over Seattle

Super Bowl 57 (Glendale, AZ)
Philadelphia over Miami

October 31, 2022

PiRate Ratings NFL For Week 9–November 3-7, 2022

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:46 pm

This Week’s Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
HoustonPhiladelphia-15.5-13.4-15.0
AtlantaLA Chargers1.10.91.8
ChicagoMiami-2.2-1.9-1.7
CincinnatiCarolina12.211.511.8
DetroitGreen Bay-6.6-5.5-6.0
JacksonvilleLas Vegas-3.6-2.6-2.8
New EnglandIndianapolis5.66.26.7
N.Y. JetsBuffalo-12.3-11.7-12.3
WashingtonMinnesota-1.9-2.5-2.4
ArizonaSeattle2.32.51.1
Tampa BayLA Rams6.35.86.0
Kansas CityTennessee14.613.814.3
New OrleansBaltimore1.20.40.7

This Week’s Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
HoustonPhiladelphia42
AtlantaLA Chargers55
ChicagoMiami39.5
CincinnatiCarolina44.5
DetroitGreen Bay47
JacksonvilleLas Vegas47.5
New EnglandIndianapolis41.5
N.Y. JetsBuffalo46
WashingtonMinnesota44
ArizonaSeattle47.5
Tampa BayLA Rams43
Kansas CityTennessee49.5
New OrleansBaltimore45

Teams With Bye Weeks

Cleveland
Pittsburgh
Denver
Dallas
N.Y. Giants
San Francisco

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo114.1114.0114.1114.0236-1
New England101.3101.4102.0101.6214-4
N.Y. Jets99.8100.399.8100.0235-3
Miami98.798.998.698.720.55-3

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Cincinnati103.9103.4103.7103.7234-4
Baltimore103.6103.3103.6103.5225-3
Cleveland100.8100.0100.2100.323.53-5
Pittsburgh95.795.495.595.520.52-6

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tennessee99.599.999.899.7205-2
Indianapolis98.698.398.298.420.53-4-1
Jacksonville95.296.295.595.622.52-6
Houston89.491.190.090.119.51-5-1

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City111.1110.7111.1111.029.55-2
Las Vegas101.8101.8101.3101.6252-5
Denver99.5100.298.799.515.53-5
LA Chargers97.197.896.997.328.54-3

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Philadelphia107.4107.0107.4107.322.57-0
Dallas106.2105.8106.6106.2226-2
N.Y. Giants95.696.696.596.2196-2
Washington96.095.395.795.7194-4

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay102.0100.9101.3101.421.53-5
Minnesota101.0100.8101.2101.0256-1
Chicago93.494.093.993.8193-5
Detroit92.993.092.892.925.51-6

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay103.8102.9102.9103.2223-5
New Orleans101.8100.8101.3101.3233-5
Atlanta95.295.795.895.526.54-4
Carolina94.294.594.494.421.53-5

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
San Francisco103.9104.1104.4104.120.54-4
LA Rams100.6100.099.8100.1213-4
Seattle98.198.399.698.7235-3
Arizona97.597.897.797.724.53-5

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1Buffalo
2Kansas City
3Baltimore
4Tennessee
5Miami
6N.Y. Jets
7New England

NFC Seeding
1Philadelphia
2Minnesota
3Seattle
4Atlanta
5Dallas
6N.Y. Giants
7San Francisco

Wildcard Round
Kansas City over New England
Baltimore over N.Y. Jets
Miami over Tennessee
Minnesota over San Francisco
Seattle over N.Y. Giants
Dallas over Atlanta

Divisional Round
Buffalo over Miami
Kansas City over Baltimore
Philadelphia over Dallas
Seattle over Minnesota

Conference Championship
Buffalo over Kansas City
Philadelphia over Seattle

Super Bowl 57 (Glendale, AZ)
Philadelphia over Buffalo

September 12, 2022

PiRate Ratings NFL Week 2, September 15-19, 2022

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:50 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
Kansas CityLA Chargers10.08.911.2
BaltimoreMiami8.37.48.0
ClevelandN.Y. Jets14.312.314.3
DetroitWashington-0.40.70.0
JacksonvilleIndianapolis-8.6-6.5-8.3
New OrleansTampa Bay-6.2-7.1-6.3
N.Y. GiantsCarolina1.12.11.8
PittsburghNew England2.32.01.9
LA RamsAtlanta18.617.718.2
San FranciscoSeattle11.712.010.4
DallasCincinnati2.31.93.0
DenverHouston15.214.514.2
Las VegasArizona9.79.08.7
Green BayChicago18.014.916.5
BuffaloTennessee14.414.114.7
PhiladelphiaMinnesota6.15.55.0

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
Kansas CityLA Chargers54
BaltimoreMiami39.5
ClevelandN.Y. Jets45.5
DetroitWashington46.5
JacksonvilleIndianapolis47
New OrleansTampa Bay46.5
N.Y. GiantsCarolina41
PittsburghNew England44
LA RamsAtlanta47.5
San FranciscoSeattle41.5
DallasCincinnati49
DenverHouston42
Las VegasArizona50
Green BayChicago40.5
BuffaloTennessee46
PhiladelphiaMinnesota48.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo110.8110.9111.0110.923.51-0
New England99.799.7100.499.9210-1
Miami99.299.799.399.4191-0
N.Y. Jets92.693.492.092.7240-1

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore104.5104.1104.4104.320.51-0
Cincinnati104.8103.9104.2104.324.50-1
Cleveland103.8102.7103.3103.321.51-0
Pittsburgh99.098.799.399.0231-0

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Indianapolis102.4101.7102.3102.1240-0-1
Tennessee99.499.899.399.522.50-1
Jacksonville90.892.291.191.4230-1
Houston88.290.288.889.021.50-0-1

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City108.3108.0108.9108.427.51-0
Las Vegas104.8104.7104.1104.5250-1
LA Chargers101.3102.1100.6101.426.51-0
Denver100.9102.2100.5101.220.50-1

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas104.1102.9104.1103.724.50-1
Philadelphia104.1103.1103.3103.5251-0
Washington97.496.997.297.2221-0
N.Y. Giants93.094.493.693.719.51-0

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay106.9105.0106.2106.0220-1
Minnesota101.1100.6101.4101.023.51-0
Detroit94.094.794.294.324.50-1
Chicago91.492.692.292.118.51-0

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay110.7110.1110.6110.525.51-0
New Orleans101.5100.0101.3100.9211-0
Carolina94.995.394.895.021.50-1
Atlanta89.990.890.390.3240-1

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
LA Rams105.6105.4105.4105.523.50-1
San Francisco102.9102.6102.8102.721.50-1
Arizona97.698.297.897.9250-1
Seattle94.193.695.494.4201-0

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1Buffalo
2Kansas City
3Pittsburgh
4Indianapolis
5LA Chargers
6Miami
7Cincinnati

NFC Seeding
1Tampa Bay
2LA Rams
3Minnesota
4Philadelphia
5New Orleans
6Green Bay
7Washington

Wildcard Round
Kansas City over Cincinnati
Miami over Pittsburgh
LA Chargers over Indianapolis
LA Rams over Washington
Minnesota over Green Bay
Philadelphia over New Orleans

Divisional Round
Buffalo over Miami
Kansas City over LA Chargers
Tampa Bay over Philadelphia
Minnesota over LA Rams

Conference Championship
Buffalo over Kansas City
Tampa Bay over Minnesota

Super Bowl 57 (Glendale, AZ)
Buffalo over Tampa Bay

July 31, 2022

2022 NFL Draft Grades

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:37 am

The first part of the PiRate Ratings NFL updates every year is to grade the NFL Draft. Years ago, I reverse engineered the system I have used ever since to assign each team a score between 0.0 and 5.0.

Without boring everybody with a lengthy explanation for how I come to a draft score for each team, the basics are:

1. I use 8 different pre-season Draft experts’ grading of every player that was drafted along with any unrestricted free agents that signed and carry a grade high enough to matter.

2. In each round, there is a different top score, with the higher the round, the more potential score is available. If a team drafts a top player in the first round, it counts more than if a team drafts the best possible remaining player in the 4th round, but if a team drafts a 1st round talent that falls to the 2nd round, they can score a bonus.

3. If a team doesn’t have a pick in a round, they are not really penalized, but if a team trades down in the draft for more picks than they had, they get a bonus. The reason for this is that 1/3 of all picks in the higher rounds never pan out. The best draft option is to pile up total picks. In other words, the Mike Ditka trade of his entire draft class to Washington for the rights to draft Ricky Williams counts as the worst grade in the history of the NFL Draft. The San Francisco 49ers had the best ever draft in 1986, and they traded down 6 times, eventually drafting eight starters on their Super Bowl Championship teams in 1988 and 1989.

4. The hand-picked draft gurus were selected by looking at what they had predicted in prior years and how accurate their picks turned out to be. If, for example, they gave a 4th round selection glaring grades and panned a 1st round pick as a mistake, and they were shown in later years to be correct, they made my grade to trust as a guru (a lot more in-depth than this one example).

The top grade, 5.0, is not necessarily a perfect draft, just one that has the best chance to pay off in the first year. A grade of 0.0 is the least chance to pay off in the first year. Down the road, these draft classes may be great or terrible, but since the ratings are only constructed to begin the current season, future potential is of no consequence.

Here, in order of best to worst, are the draft grades for each team.

#TeamScore
1Baltimore Ravens5.0
1New York Jets5.0
3Philadelphia Eagles4.8
4Kansas City Chiefs4.4
5Detroit Lions4.2
6New York Giants4.1
7Denver Broncos3.8
7Houston Texans3.8
7Pittsburgh Steelers3.8
10Buffalo Bills3.6
10Tennessee Titans3.6
12Atlanta Falcons3.5
12Green Bay Packers3.5
14Cincinnati Bengals3.4
14Indianapolis Colts3.4
16Las Vegas Raiders3.3
16Los Angeles Chargers3.3
16Seattle Seahawks3.3
19Cleveland Browns3.1
19Jacksonville Jaguars3.1
19Tampa Bay Bucaneers3.1
22Carolina Panthers3.0
22Los Angeles Rams3.0
22Minnesota Vikings3.0
25New Orleans Saints2.9
25Washington Commanders2.9
27Miami Dolphins2.7
28Chicago Bears2.6
28San Francisco 49ers2.6
30Dallas Cowboys2.5
31Arizona Cardinals2.3
32New England Patriots1.9
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