The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 12, 2022

PiRate Ratings NFL Week 2, September 15-19, 2022

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:50 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
Kansas CityLA Chargers10.08.911.2
BaltimoreMiami8.37.48.0
ClevelandN.Y. Jets14.312.314.3
DetroitWashington-0.40.70.0
JacksonvilleIndianapolis-8.6-6.5-8.3
New OrleansTampa Bay-6.2-7.1-6.3
N.Y. GiantsCarolina1.12.11.8
PittsburghNew England2.32.01.9
LA RamsAtlanta18.617.718.2
San FranciscoSeattle11.712.010.4
DallasCincinnati2.31.93.0
DenverHouston15.214.514.2
Las VegasArizona9.79.08.7
Green BayChicago18.014.916.5
BuffaloTennessee14.414.114.7
PhiladelphiaMinnesota6.15.55.0

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
Kansas CityLA Chargers54
BaltimoreMiami39.5
ClevelandN.Y. Jets45.5
DetroitWashington46.5
JacksonvilleIndianapolis47
New OrleansTampa Bay46.5
N.Y. GiantsCarolina41
PittsburghNew England44
LA RamsAtlanta47.5
San FranciscoSeattle41.5
DallasCincinnati49
DenverHouston42
Las VegasArizona50
Green BayChicago40.5
BuffaloTennessee46
PhiladelphiaMinnesota48.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo110.8110.9111.0110.923.51-0
New England99.799.7100.499.9210-1
Miami99.299.799.399.4191-0
N.Y. Jets92.693.492.092.7240-1

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore104.5104.1104.4104.320.51-0
Cincinnati104.8103.9104.2104.324.50-1
Cleveland103.8102.7103.3103.321.51-0
Pittsburgh99.098.799.399.0231-0

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Indianapolis102.4101.7102.3102.1240-0-1
Tennessee99.499.899.399.522.50-1
Jacksonville90.892.291.191.4230-1
Houston88.290.288.889.021.50-0-1

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City108.3108.0108.9108.427.51-0
Las Vegas104.8104.7104.1104.5250-1
LA Chargers101.3102.1100.6101.426.51-0
Denver100.9102.2100.5101.220.50-1

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas104.1102.9104.1103.724.50-1
Philadelphia104.1103.1103.3103.5251-0
Washington97.496.997.297.2221-0
N.Y. Giants93.094.493.693.719.51-0

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay106.9105.0106.2106.0220-1
Minnesota101.1100.6101.4101.023.51-0
Detroit94.094.794.294.324.50-1
Chicago91.492.692.292.118.51-0

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay110.7110.1110.6110.525.51-0
New Orleans101.5100.0101.3100.9211-0
Carolina94.995.394.895.021.50-1
Atlanta89.990.890.390.3240-1

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
LA Rams105.6105.4105.4105.523.50-1
San Francisco102.9102.6102.8102.721.50-1
Arizona97.698.297.897.9250-1
Seattle94.193.695.494.4201-0

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1Buffalo
2Kansas City
3Pittsburgh
4Indianapolis
5LA Chargers
6Miami
7Cincinnati

NFC Seeding
1Tampa Bay
2LA Rams
3Minnesota
4Philadelphia
5New Orleans
6Green Bay
7Washington

Wildcard Round
Kansas City over Cincinnati
Miami over Pittsburgh
LA Chargers over Indianapolis
LA Rams over Washington
Minnesota over Green Bay
Philadelphia over New Orleans

Divisional Round
Buffalo over Miami
Kansas City over LA Chargers
Tampa Bay over Philadelphia
Minnesota over LA Rams

Conference Championship
Buffalo over Kansas City
Tampa Bay over Minnesota

Super Bowl 57 (Glendale, AZ)
Buffalo over Tampa Bay

July 31, 2022

2022 NFL Draft Grades

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:37 am

The first part of the PiRate Ratings NFL updates every year is to grade the NFL Draft. Years ago, I reverse engineered the system I have used ever since to assign each team a score between 0.0 and 5.0.

Without boring everybody with a lengthy explanation for how I come to a draft score for each team, the basics are:

1. I use 8 different pre-season Draft experts’ grading of every player that was drafted along with any unrestricted free agents that signed and carry a grade high enough to matter.

2. In each round, there is a different top score, with the higher the round, the more potential score is available. If a team drafts a top player in the first round, it counts more than if a team drafts the best possible remaining player in the 4th round, but if a team drafts a 1st round talent that falls to the 2nd round, they can score a bonus.

3. If a team doesn’t have a pick in a round, they are not really penalized, but if a team trades down in the draft for more picks than they had, they get a bonus. The reason for this is that 1/3 of all picks in the higher rounds never pan out. The best draft option is to pile up total picks. In other words, the Mike Ditka trade of his entire draft class to Washington for the rights to draft Ricky Williams counts as the worst grade in the history of the NFL Draft. The San Francisco 49ers had the best ever draft in 1986, and they traded down 6 times, eventually drafting eight starters on their Super Bowl Championship teams in 1988 and 1989.

4. The hand-picked draft gurus were selected by looking at what they had predicted in prior years and how accurate their picks turned out to be. If, for example, they gave a 4th round selection glaring grades and panned a 1st round pick as a mistake, and they were shown in later years to be correct, they made my grade to trust as a guru (a lot more in-depth than this one example).

The top grade, 5.0, is not necessarily a perfect draft, just one that has the best chance to pay off in the first year. A grade of 0.0 is the least chance to pay off in the first year. Down the road, these draft classes may be great or terrible, but since the ratings are only constructed to begin the current season, future potential is of no consequence.

Here, in order of best to worst, are the draft grades for each team.

#TeamScore
1Baltimore Ravens5.0
1New York Jets5.0
3Philadelphia Eagles4.8
4Kansas City Chiefs4.4
5Detroit Lions4.2
6New York Giants4.1
7Denver Broncos3.8
7Houston Texans3.8
7Pittsburgh Steelers3.8
10Buffalo Bills3.6
10Tennessee Titans3.6
12Atlanta Falcons3.5
12Green Bay Packers3.5
14Cincinnati Bengals3.4
14Indianapolis Colts3.4
16Las Vegas Raiders3.3
16Los Angeles Chargers3.3
16Seattle Seahawks3.3
19Cleveland Browns3.1
19Jacksonville Jaguars3.1
19Tampa Bay Bucaneers3.1
22Carolina Panthers3.0
22Los Angeles Rams3.0
22Minnesota Vikings3.0
25New Orleans Saints2.9
25Washington Commanders2.9
27Miami Dolphins2.7
28Chicago Bears2.6
28San Francisco 49ers2.6
30Dallas Cowboys2.5
31Arizona Cardinals2.3
32New England Patriots1.9

December 13, 2021

PiRate Ratings–NFL For Week 15, December 16-20, 2021

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:57 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
LA ChargersKansas City-2.4-2.5-2.4
ClevelandLas Vegas10.710.410.1
IndianapolisNew England-0.8-1.3-1.9
PhiladelphiaWashington6.16.17.3
BuffaloCarolina17.017.017.1
MiamiN.Y. Jets14.514.715.3
N.Y. GiantsDallas-4.6-5.2-4.7
BaltimoreGreen Bay-0.6-1.1-1.8
PittsburghTennessee-0.5-1.4-1.9
JacksonvilleHouston3.14.52.7
DetroitArizona-13.4-13.7-13.7
San FranciscoAtlanta11.912.211.5
DenverCincinnati2.01.92.6
LA RamsSeattle6.67.26.8
Tampa BayNew Orleans8.69.68.5
ChicagoMinnesota-2.4-2.6-2.4

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
LA ChargersKansas City54.5
ClevelandLas Vegas49
IndianapolisNew England44
PhiladelphiaWashington40.5
BuffaloCarolina45.5
MiamiN.Y. Jets43
N.Y. GiantsDallas47
BaltimoreGreen Bay50
PittsburghTennessee46.5
JacksonvilleHouston41
DetroitArizona51
San FranciscoAtlanta50
DenverCincinnati42.5
LA RamsSeattle49.5
Tampa BayNew Orleans52.5
ChicagoMinnesota42

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
New England110.5110.6111.3110.818.59-4
Buffalo107.4107.2107.4107.3247-6
Miami98.999.299.899.3196-7
N. Y. Jets87.387.587.587.5243-10

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore102.8102.4102.0102.422.58-5
Cincinnati101.5101.9101.1101.5267-6
Cleveland99.999.799.199.6237-6
Pittsburgh97.897.196.997.3206-6-1

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Indianapolis106.7106.3106.4106.525.57-6
Tennessee101.3101.4101.8101.526.59-4
Jacksonville88.088.687.488.019.52-11
Houston87.486.687.287.121.52-11

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City107.1107.4107.4107.327.59-4
LA Chargers101.8101.9102.0101.9278-5
Denver100.6100.7100.7100.716.57-6
Las Vegas92.292.392.092.2266-7

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas103.8104.4103.7104.0299-4
Philadelphia101.0101.1102.0101.4226-7
Washington96.997.096.796.918.56-7
N.Y. Giants96.396.296.096.2184-9

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay106.4106.5106.8106.627.610-3
Minnesota100.8101.0100.6100.824.56-7
Chicago95.495.495.295.317.54-9
Detroit90.190.390.390.2251-11-1

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay108.0107.9107.8107.93110-3
New Orleans102.4101.3102.3102.021.56-7
Atlanta94.794.695.394.9256-7
Carolina93.493.193.293.321.55-8

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
LA Rams106.7107.1106.8106.927.59-4
Arizona106.5107.0107.0106.82610-3
San Francisco103.6103.9103.8103.8257-6
Seattle102.6102.4102.5102.5225-8

This Week’s PiRate Playoff Projections

If Season Ended Today
AFC
1New England
2Tennessee
3Kansas City
4Baltimore
5LA Chargers
6Indianapolis
7Buffalo

NFC
1Green Bay
2Tampa Bay
3Arizona
4Dallas
5LA Rams
6San Francisco
7Washington
Playoff Projection Seeds
AFC Seeding
1Kansas City
2New England
3Baltimore
4Tennessee
5LA Chargers
6Indianapolis
7Cleveland

NFC Seeding
1Green Bay
2Tampa Bay
3Arizona
4Dallas
5LA Rams
6San Francisco
7Philadelphia
Wildcard Round
New England over Cleveland
Indianapolis over Baltimore
LA Chargers over Tennessee
Tampa Bay over Philadelphia
San Francisco over Arizona
LA Rams over Dallas

Divisional Round
Kansas City over Indianapolis
New England over LA Chargers
Green Bay over San Francisco
Tampa Bay over LA Rams

Conference Championship
Kansas City over New England
Green Bay over Tampa Bay

Super Bowl 56 (LA)
Kansas City over Green Bay

December 6, 2021

PiRate Ratings–NFL for Week 14, December 9-13, 2021

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:52 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
MinnesotaPittsburgh5.86.86.3
Kansas CItyLas Vegas13.013.013.1
N.Y. JetsNew Orleans-10.8-9.1-10.1
CincinnatiSan Francisco1.31.61.1
TennesseeJacksonville15.114.215.7
ClevelandBaltimore-0.8-0.6-1.2
CarolinaAtlanta3.53.42.8
WashingtonDallas-3.7-4.0-3.4
HoustonSeattle-10.7-11.2-10.4
DenverDetroit10.29.99.7
LA ChargersN.Y. Giants7.57.57.5
Tampa BayBuffalo4.04.13.8
Green BayChicago13.513.414.0
ArizonaLA Rams5.05.35.8

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
MinnesotaPittsburgh43.5
Kansas CItyLas Vegas53.5
N.Y. JetsNew Orleans46
CincinnatiSan Francisco51
TennesseeJacksonville47.5
ClevelandBaltimore45.5
CarolinaAtlanta46.5
WashingtonDallas47.5
HoustonSeattle43.5
DenverDetroit40.5
LA ChargersN.Y. Giants43.5
Tampa BayBuffalo54
Green BayChicago43
ArizonaLA Rams53.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Week 14
A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
New England110.2110.3111.0110.518.59-4
Buffalo107.2107.0107.2107.123.57-5
Miami98.698.999.599.0196-7
N. Y. Jets88.288.688.688.5243-9

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore103.0102.6102.4102.722.58-4
Cincinnati101.7102.2101.5101.8267-5
Cleveland99.799.598.799.3236-6
Pittsburgh97.997.297.197.419.56-5-1

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Indianapolis106.4106.0106.1106.225.57-6
Tennessee101.1101.0101.4101.2278-4
Jacksonville88.589.388.188.720.52-10
Houston88.387.588.388.121.52-10

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City104.8105.0104.9104.927.58-4
LA Chargers101.3101.3101.3101.3267-5
Denver99.199.199.099.1166-6
Las Vegas94.895.094.894.9266-6

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas103.7104.2103.4103.8298-4
Philadelphia100.7100.8101.7101.1226-7
Washington97.097.297.097.118.56-6
N.Y. Giants96.896.896.796.817.54-8

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay106.4106.4106.7106.526.59-3
Minnesota100.7100.9100.4100.7245-7
Chicago95.495.595.395.416.54-8
Detroit91.992.292.392.124.51-10-1

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay108.2108.1108.0108.130.59-3
New Orleans101.5100.2101.2101.0225-7
Carolina94.594.394.494.421.55-7
Atlanta93.693.494.193.7255-7

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Arizona107.6108.2108.3108.02610-2
LA Rams105.6105.9105.5105.727.58-4
San Francisco103.4103.6103.4103.5256-6
Seattle102.0101.8101.7101.8224-8

Playoff Projections

If Season Ended Today
AFC
1New England
2Tennessee
3Baltimore
4Kansas City
5LA Chargers
6Cincinnati
7Buffalo

NFC
1Arizona
2Green Bay
3Tampa Bay
4Dallas
5LA Rams
6Washington
7San Francisco
Playoff Projection Seeds
AFC Seeding
1New England
2Baltimore
3Kansas City
4Tennessee
5LA Chargers
6Cincinnati
7Pittsburgh

NFC Seeding
1Arizona
2Green Bay
3Tampa Bay
4Dallas
5LA Rams
6Washington
7Philadelphia
Wildcard Round
Baltimore over Pittsburgh
Kansas City over Cincinnati
LA Chargers over Tennessee
Green Bay over Philadelphia
Tampa Bay over Washington
LA Rams over Dallas

Divisional Round
New England over LA Chargers
Kansas City over Baltimore
Arizona over LA Rams
Green Bay over Tampa Bay

Conference Championship
Kansas City over New England
Green Bay over Arizona

Super Bowl 56 (LA)
Green Bay over Kansas City

November 29, 2021

PiRate Ratings NFL Week 13–December 2-6, 2021

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:54 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
New OrleansDallas3.01.23.4
DetroitMinnesota-8.7-8.7-8.3
ChicagoArizona-9.0-9.5-9.8
AtlantaTampa Bay-12.2-11.9-11.2
Kansas CityDenver8.38.28.0
HoustonIndianapolis-11.7-12.1-11.0
N.Y. JetsPhiladelphia-9.4-8.9-9.6
CincinnatiLA Chargers8.59.08.6
MiamiN.Y. Giants4.24.35.0
Las VegasWashington1.01.01.0
PittsburghBaltimore-3.1-3.5-3.3
LA RamsJacksonville18.217.318.1
SeattleSan Francisco0.5-0.1-0.2
BuffaloNew England0.40.2-0.2

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
New OrleansDallas51.5
DetroitMinnesota47.5
ChicagoArizona41.5
AtlantaTampa Bay56
Kansas CityDenver44.5
HoustonIndianapolis48.5
N.Y. JetsPhiladelphia46
CincinnatiLA Chargers51
MiamiN.Y. Giants37
Las VegasWashington46
PittsburghBaltimore42
LA RamsJacksonville48
SeattleSan Francisco46
BuffaloNew England44

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
New England110.0110.0110.7110.219.58-4
Buffalo107.4107.3107.5107.424.57-4
Miami98.398.599.198.6195-7
N. Y. Jets88.589.089.188.9243-8

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Cincinnati104.2104.8104.2104.425.57-4
Baltimore103.4103.0102.8103.122.58-3
Cleveland99.499.298.499.0236-6
Pittsburgh97.897.197.097.319.55-5-1

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Indianapolis104.7104.3104.2104.4266-6
Tennessee100.8100.7101.1100.9278-4
Jacksonville89.690.689.489.920.52-9
Houston90.089.290.289.822.52-9

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City104.7104.8104.6104.7287-4
Denver99.599.699.699.616.56-5
LA Chargers98.898.798.698.725.56-5
Las Vegas94.995.194.995.026.56-5

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas102.6103.1102.1102.6297-4
Philadelphia100.4100.4101.2100.7225-7
Washington96.997.196.997.0195-6
N.Y. Giants97.197.297.197.1184-7

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay106.1106.1106.4106.226.59-3
Minnesota102.0102.3101.9102.123.55-6
Chicago95.595.695.495.5164-7
Detroit90.991.191.191.0240-10-1

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay108.2108.0107.9108.030.58-3
New Orleans102.6101.3102.5102.122.55-6
Carolina94.294.094.194.121.55-7
Atlanta93.693.594.293.825.55-6

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Arizona107.5108.1108.2107.925.59-2
LA Rams104.8104.9104.5104.727.57-4
San Francisco103.7104.0103.9103.924.56-5
Seattle101.7101.4101.2101.421.53-8

Playoff Projections

If Season Ended Today
AFC
1Baltimore
2New England
3Tennessee
4Kansas City
5Cincinnati
6Buffalo
7LA Chargers

NFC
1Arizona
2Green Bay
3Tampa Bay
4Dallas
5LA Rams
6San Francisco
7Washington
Playoff Projection Seeds
AFC Seeding
1New England
2Baltimore
3Kansas City
4Tennessee
5Cincinnati
6Denver
7Buffalo

NFC Seeding
1Green Bay
2Arizona
3Tampa Bay
4Dallas
5San Francisco
6LA Rams
7Minnesota
Wildcard Round
Baltimore over Buffalo
Kansas City over Denver
Cincinnati over Tennessee
Arizona over Minnesota
Tampa Bay over LA Rams
San Francisco over Dallas

Divisional Round
New England over Cincinnati
Kansas City over Baltimore
Green Bay over San Francisco
Tampa Bay over Arizona

Conference Championship
Kansas City over New England
Tampa Bay over Green Bay

Super Bowl 56 (LA)
Kansas City over Tampa Bay

November 22, 2021

PiRate Ratings NFL Football–November 25-29, 2021

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
DetroitChicago-1.3-1.2-1.0
DallasLas Vegas12.613.312.5
New OrleansBuffalo2.61.52.8
New EnglandTennessee8.68.58.6
HoustonN.Y. Jets6.24.96.2
N.Y. GiantsPhiladelphia-2.8-2.7-4.1
IndianapolisTampa Bay0.10.10.3
JacksonvilleAtlanta-0.80.6-1.5
MiamiCarolina3.03.23.5
CincinnatiPittsburgh3.54.84.1
DenverLA Chargers1.51.51.4
San FranciscoMinnesota4.34.04.5
Green BayLA Rams3.93.64.3
BaltimoreCleveland7.27.07.6
WashingtonSeattle-2.2-1.7-2.1

PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
DetroitChicago41
DallasLas Vegas54.5
New OrleansBuffalo48
New EnglandTennessee46
HoustonN.Y. Jets47.5
N.Y. GiantsPhiladelphia42
IndianapolisTampa Bay55
JacksonvilleAtlanta47.5
MiamiCarolina40.5
CincinnatiPittsburgh44.5
DenverLA Chargers42
San FranciscoMinnesota46.5
Green BayLA Rams53
BaltimoreCleveland47.5
WashingtonSeattle41.5

Teams Not Playing This Week

Arizona, Kansas City

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
New England108.2108.1108.7108.3197-4
Buffalo105.2105.1105.1105.1256-4
Miami96.596.697.196.7194-7
N. Y. Jets87.487.987.887.724.52-8

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore103.5103.1102.9103.223.57-3
Cincinnati101.5102.1101.4101.725.56-4
Pittsburgh100.599.899.8100.0195-4-1
Cleveland99.399.198.398.9246-5

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Indianapolis105.0104.7104.7104.825.56-5
Tennessee102.6102.6103.1102.8278-3
Houston91.190.391.591.0232-8
Jacksonville89.991.189.890.321.52-8

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City104.4104.5104.3104.4287-4
LA Chargers99.999.999.999.925.56-4
Denver98.498.498.398.416.55-5
Las Vegas94.194.193.994.0265-5

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas103.7104.4103.4103.828.57-3
Philadelphia101.1101.2102.2101.5235-6
Washington96.796.996.596.719.54-6
N.Y. Giants96.496.496.196.3193-7

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay105.9105.8106.1105.9268-3
Minnesota102.2102.6102.2102.3235-5
Chicago95.595.695.495.516.53-7
Detroit91.291.491.491.324.50-9-1

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay107.9107.6107.4107.629.57-3
New Orleans104.8103.5104.9104.4235-5
Carolina96.095.996.196.021.55-6
Atlanta93.393.093.893.4264-6

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Arizona107.2107.8107.9107.625.59-2
LA Rams105.0105.2104.8105.0277-3
San Francisco103.5103.7103.6103.623.55-5
Seattle101.9101.6101.6101.7223-7

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

If Season Ended Today
AFC
1Tennessee
2Baltimore
3New England
4Kansas City
5Cincinnati
6LA Chargers
7Buffalo

NFC
1Arizona
2Green Bay
3Tampa Bay
4Dallas
5LA Rams
6Minnesota
7New Orleans
Playoff Projection Seeds
AFC Seeding
1Baltimore
2New England
3Tennessee
4Kansas City
5LA Chargers
6Cincinnati
7Denver

NFC Seeding
1Arizona
2Green Bay
3Tampa Bay
4Dallas
5LA Rams
6Minnesota
7San Francisco
Wildcard Round
New England over Denver
Cincinnati over Tennessee
LA Chargers over Kansas City
Green Bay over San Francisco
Tampa Bay over Minnesota
LA Rams over Dallas

Divisional Round
LA Chargers over Baltimore
New England over Cincinnati
Arizona over LA Rams
Tampa Bay over Green Bay

Conference Championship
New England over LA Chargers
Arizona over Tampa Bay

Super Bowl 56 (LA)
Arizona over New England

Note: Due to the Thanksgiving Holiday, Our Weekly PiRate Picks Money Line Parlays For This Week Will Publish Tuesday.

November 15, 2021

PiRate Ratings NFL–Week 11, November 18-22, 2021

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
AtlantaNew England-8.7-8.6-8.1
ClevelandDetroit12.812.611.8
JacksonvilleSan Francisco-8.0-6.5-7.8
BuffaloIndianapolis8.89.29.6
N.Y. JetsMiami-6.5-6.2-6.8
CarolinaWashington3.83.74.7
ChicagoBaltimore-5.3-4.8-5.2
PhiladelphiaNew Orleans-3.7-2.3-3.1
TennesseeHouston18.820.019.2
MinnesotaGreen Bay-1.6-1.4-2.6
Las VegasCincinnati-1.5-1.9-1.2
SeattleArizona0.0-0.9-0.7
Kansas CityDallas2.51.52.3
LA ChargersPittsburgh1.92.82.5
Tampa BayN.Y. Giants13.813.113.1

PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
AtlantaNew England46.5
ClevelandDetroit50.5
JacksonvilleSan Francisco45
BuffaloIndianapolis49.5
N.Y. JetsMiami43.5
CarolinaWashington40.5
ChicagoBaltimore42
PhiladelphiaNew Orleans43.5
TennesseeHouston51
MinnesotaGreen Bay47
Las VegasCincinnati52.5
SeattleArizona49
Kansas CityDallas58.5
LA ChargersPittsburgh42.5
Tampa BayN.Y. Giants49

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo108.5108.5108.7108.524.56-3
New England106.4106.2106.7106.419.56-4
Miami96.596.697.196.7193-7
N. Y. Jets87.487.987.887.724.52-7

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore103.5103.1103.1103.224.56-3
Cincinnati100.2100.799.9100.3265-4
Pittsburgh100.7100.0100.1100.3185-3-1
Cleveland100.4100.399.5100.1255-5

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tennessee104.9105.1105.6105.227.58-2
Indianapolis102.7102.3102.1102.4255-5
Jacksonville91.292.691.391.721.52-7
Houston89.188.189.388.923.51-8

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City103.8103.7103.5103.7296-4
LA Chargers99.799.799.699.624.55-4
Denver98.198.198.098.116.55-5
Las Vegas95.795.895.795.726.55-4

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas104.3105.2104.2104.629.57-2
Philadelphia99.699.7100.599.921.54-6
N.Y. Giants96.896.996.796.819.53-6
Washington95.795.895.295.619.53-6

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay106.2106.2106.7106.4258-2
Minnesota101.5101.8101.2101.5224-5
Chicago95.295.394.995.117.53-5
Detroit90.690.790.790.725.50-8-1

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay107.5107.1106.8107.129.56-3
New Orleans106.3105.0106.6106.0225-4
Carolina97.097.097.497.2215-5
Atlanta94.894.695.595.0274-5

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Arizona105.8106.4106.4106.2268-2
LA Rams104.7104.9104.5104.7277-3
Seattle102.8102.5102.6102.6233-6
San Francisco102.2102.2102.1102.223.54-5

This Week’s Playoff Projections

If Season Ended Today
AFC
1Tennessee
2Buffalo
3Baltimore
4Kansas City
5Pittsburgh
6New England
7LA Chargers

NFC
1Green Bay
2Arizona
3Dallas
4Tampa Bay
5LA Rams
6New Orleans
7Carolina
Playoff Projection Seeds
AFC Seeding
1Tennessee
2Baltimore
3New England
4Kansas City
5Buffalo
6Pittsburgh
7Indianapolis

NFC Seeding
1Green Bay
2Dallas
3Arizona
4Tampa Bay
5LA Rams
6New Orleans
7Minnesota
Wildcard Round
Baltimore over Indianapolis
New England over Pittsburgh
Kansas City over Buffalo
Dallas over Minnesota
New Orleans over Arizona
Tampa Bay over LA Rams

Divisional Round
Tennessee over Kansas City
New England over Baltimore
Green Bay over New Orleans
Tampa Bay over Dallas

Conference Championship
New England over Tennessee
Tampa Bay over Green Bay

Super Bowl 56 (LA)
Tampa Bay over New England

November 8, 2021

PiRate Ratings NFL Football–November 11-15, 2021

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
MiamiBaltimore-7.1-6.6-6.1
IndianapolisJacksonville15.113.114.8
New EnglandCleveland4.13.64.9
DallasAtlanta8.09.16.6
N.Y. JetsBuffalo-16.7-16.0-16.0
TennesseeNew Orleans1.63.32.0
WashingtonTampa Bay-13.5-13.2-13.7
PittsburghDetroit14.814.014.4
LA ChargersMinnesota3.13.13.8
ArizonaCarolina16.917.917.6
Green BaySeattle3.94.44.5
DenverPhiladelphia5.75.94.9
Las VegasKansas City-0.5-0.10.2
San FranciscoLA Rams-3.9-4.3-4.2

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
MiamiBaltimore45
IndianapolisJacksonville47
New EnglandCleveland43.5
DallasAtlanta57.5
N.Y. JetsBuffalo47.5
TennesseeNew Orleans49.5
WashingtonTampa Bay49
PittsburghDetroit44.5
LA ChargersMinnesota46.5
ArizonaCarolina47
Green BaySeattle50
DenverPhiladelphia37.5
Las VegasKansas City55.5
San FranciscoLA Rams51.5

Teams Not Playing This Week

Cincinnati
Houston
N.Y. Giants
Chicago

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

November 9, 2021
A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo107.3107.2107.3107.223.55-3
New England103.7103.3103.8103.6195-4
Miami95.195.295.795.319.52-7
N. Y. Jets88.689.289.289.0242-6

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore105.2104.8104.8104.925.56-2
Cleveland102.6102.7101.9102.424.55-4
Pittsburgh102.0101.4101.6101.718.55-3
Cincinnati99.9100.499.6100.0265-4

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tennessee104.9105.2105.6105.227.57-2
Indianapolis103.0102.5102.6102.725.54-5
Jacksonville90.992.490.891.421.52-6
Houston88.887.889.088.623.51-8

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City101.5101.3101.0101.3295-4
LA Chargers100.9101.0101.0100.924.55-3
Denver100.2100.3100.2100.216.55-4
Las Vegas98.098.298.298.126.55-3

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas101.9102.8101.5102.1306-2
Philadelphia97.597.598.397.8213-6
N.Y. Giants96.596.696.496.519.53-6
Washington93.593.592.893.319.52-6

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay105.0105.0105.4105.1267-2
Minnesota100.7100.9100.2100.6223-5
Chicago94.995.094.694.817.53-5
Detroit89.889.889.789.8260-8

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay110.0109.7109.5109.729.56-2
New Orleans106.3104.9106.6105.9225-3
Atlanta96.996.797.997.227.54-4
Carolina94.794.594.894.7214-5

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Arizona108.6109.4109.5109.2268-1
LA Rams106.9107.2106.9107.027.57-2
Seattle104.0103.7103.9103.9243-5
San Francisco100.099.999.799.9243-5

This Week’s Playoff Projections

If Playoffs Began Today

AFC
1Tennessee
2Baltimore
3LA Chargers
4Buffalo
5Las Vegas
6Pittsburgh
7New England


NFC
1Arizona
2Green Bay
3Tampa Bay
4Dallas
5LA Rams
6New Orleans
7Atlanta

Projected Playoff Seeds

AFC Seeding
1Baltimore
2Tennessee
3LA Chargers
4New England
5Pittsburgh
6Denver
7Cleveland


NFC Seeding
1Arizona
2Tampa Bay
3Green Bay
4Dallas
5LA Rams
6New Orleans
7Atlanta

Projected Playoff Rounds

Wildcard Round
Tennessee over Cleveland
LA Chargers over Denver
New England over Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay over Atlanta
Green Bay over New Orleans
LA Rams over Dallas




Divisional Round
Baltimore over New England
LA Chargers over Tennessee
Arizona over LA Rams
Tampa Bay over Green Bay
Conference Championship
LA Chargers over Baltimore
Tampa Bay over Arizona


Super Bowl 56 (LA)
LA Chargers over Tampa Bay

November 1, 2021

PiRate Ratings–NFL for Week 9: November 4-8, 2021

Our Annual First Week In November Tribute to Steve Sabol of NFL Films–The Autumn Wind

The Autumn Wind is a pirate.

Blustering in from sea,

With a rollicking song, he sweeps along,

Swaggering boisterously.

His face is weather beaten.

He wears a hooded sash,

With a silver hat about his head,

And a bristling black mustache.

He growls as he storms the country,

A villain big and bold.

And the trees all shake and quiver and quake,

As he robs them of their gold.

The Autumn Wind is a Raider,

Pillaging just for fun.

He’ll knock you ’round and upside down,

And laugh when he’s conquered and won.”

Steve Sabol–NFL Films

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
IndianapolisN.Y. Jets17.816.717.0
MiamiHouston9.010.59.6
DallasDenver8.59.78.5
BaltimoreMinnesota8.27.79.1
CarolinaNew England-3.8-3.4-3.3
JacksonvilleBuffalo-18.1-16.2-18.5
CincinnatiCleveland3.54.34.5
N.Y. GiantsLas Vegas0.80.70.0
New OrleansAtlanta13.011.812.7
PhiladelphiaLA Chargers0.2-0.11.1
Kansas CityGreen Bay-0.1-0.4-1.2
San FranciscoArizona-3.4-4.3-4.3
LA RamsTennessee7.17.46.7
PittsburghChicago10.710.211.2

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
IndianapolisN.Y. Jets47.5
MiamiHouston44.5
DallasDenver46.5
BaltimoreMinnesota46.5
CarolinaNew England41
JacksonvilleBuffalo47
CincinnatiCleveland50
N.Y. GiantsLas Vegas46.5
New OrleansAtlanta49.5
PhiladelphiaLA Chargers45.5
Kansas CityGreen Bay56.5
San FranciscoArizona50
LA RamsTennessee56
PittsburghChicago34

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo109.8109.6110.0109.824.55-2
New England102.6102.1102.5102.419.54-4
Miami95.295.595.995.5201-7
N. Y. Jets88.489.088.988.8232-5

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore105.6105.2105.5105.4255-2
Cincinnati102.2102.9102.2102.425.55-3
Pittsburgh102.3101.8102.2102.117.54-3
Cleveland100.7100.699.7100.324.54-4

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tennessee103.8104.0104.4104.1286-2
Indianapolis103.2102.7102.9102.924.53-5
Jacksonville89.290.888.989.722.51-6
Houston88.787.588.888.424.51-7

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City101.8101.6101.3101.6304-4
LA Chargers100.5100.6100.5100.524.54-3
Las Vegas98.398.698.898.6275-2
Denver98.398.298.198.216.54-4

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas103.8104.9103.6104.1306-1
Philadelphia97.697.698.597.9213-5
N.Y. Giants96.296.295.896.119.52-6
Washington93.293.292.593.019.52-6

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay105.0105.0105.4105.126.57-1
Minnesota100.3100.599.5100.121.53-4
Chicago94.694.694.094.416.53-5
Detroit89.589.589.489.5260-8

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay109.7109.4109.2109.429.56-2
New Orleans107.6106.2108.1107.3225-2
Carolina95.895.796.195.921.54-4
Atlanta95.695.496.495.827.53-4

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
LA Rams108.0108.4108.1108.2287-1
Arizona107.5108.3108.3108.0267-1
Seattle103.7103.4103.6103.6243-5
San Francisco101.1101.0100.9101.0243-4

Playoff Projections

If Playoffs Started Today

AFC
1Tennessee
2Las Vegas
3Baltimore
4Buffalo
5Cincinnati
6Pittsburgh
7LA Chargers

NFC
1Green Bay
2Arizona
3Dallas
4Tampa Bay
5LA Rams
6New Orleans
7Carolina

Projected Seedings

AFC Seeding
1Baltimore
2Las Vegas
3Tennessee
4Buffalo
5Pittsburgh
6New England
7Cincinnati

NFC Seeding
1Green Bay
2LA Rams
3Dallas
4Tampa Bay
5Arizona
6Carolina
7San Francisco
Wildcard Round
Las Vegas over Cincinnati
New England over Tennessee
Buffalo over Pittsburgh
LA Rams over San Francisco
Dallas over Carolina
Arizona over Tampa Bay

Divisional Round
Baltimore over New England
Las Vegas over Buffalo
Green Bay over Arizona
LA Rams over Dallas

Conference Championship
Las Vegas over Baltimore
Green Bay over LA Rams

Super Bowl 56 (LA)
Green Bay over Las Vegas

October 25, 2021

PiRate Ratings–NFL for Week 8: October 28-November 1, 2021

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
ArizonaGreen Bay7.48.78.0
AtlantaCarolina1.11.11.9
BuffaloMiami17.416.717.2
ChicagoSan Francisco-1.8-1.4-1.8
ClevelandPittsburgh2.93.72.4
DenverWashington7.77.57.9
DetroitPhiladelphia-2.1-2.0-3.2
HoustonLA Rams-16.2-18.1-16.3
IndianapolisTennessee4.33.63.6
LA ChargersNew England3.95.25.0
MinnesotaDallas0.8-0.10.5
N.Y. JetsCincinnati-5.1-5.2-4.3
New OrleansTampa Bay1.80.52.9
SeattleJacksonville16.014.215.8
Kansas CityN.Y. Giants13.914.014.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
ArizonaGreen Bay53
AtlantaCarolina51
BuffaloMiami45.5
ChicagoSan Francisco38.5
ClevelandPittsburgh43.5
DenverWashington37
DetroitPhiladelphia47
HoustonLA Rams51.5
IndianapolisTennessee51.5
LA ChargersNew England43
MinnesotaDallas53
N.Y. JetsCincinnati47
New OrleansTampa Bay50
SeattleJacksonville47.5
Kansas CityN.Y. Giants50.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo110.1109.9110.5110.1254-2
New England101.8101.1101.4101.4193-4
Miami95.295.595.795.520.51-6
N. Y. Jets88.088.588.488.3221-5

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore105.2104.8105.1105.0255-2
Cincinnati102.6103.4102.7102.9255-2
Cleveland101.6101.7100.8101.425.54-3
Pittsburgh101.6100.9101.3101.3183-3

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Indianapolis104.0103.5103.8103.8243-4
Tennessee103.0103.2103.5103.227.55-2
Jacksonville90.091.589.990.5231-5
Houston88.787.488.888.3241-6

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City102.3102.2102.0102.230.53-4
LA Chargers100.9101.2101.2101.1244-2
Las Vegas97.998.298.498.2275-2
Denver98.398.197.998.1173-4


N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas102.8103.9102.4103.030.55-1
Philadelphia95.895.796.596.0212-5
N.Y. Giants95.795.695.195.5202-5
Washington93.593.693.093.4202-5

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay103.8103.6104.0103.826.56-1
Minnesota100.6100.8100.0100.522.53-3
Chicago95.395.494.995.215.53-4
Detroit91.891.991.991.9260-7

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay110.2110.1109.8110.028.56-1
New Orleans107.8106.2108.2107.421.54-2
Atlanta96.396.297.496.628.53-3
Carolina95.194.995.195.122.53-4

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Arizona108.3109.3109.3109.026.57-0
LA Rams108.0108.5108.1108.227.56-1
Seattle103.2103.0102.9103.024.52-5
San Francisco100.4100.2100.0100.2232-4

This Week’s Playoff Projections

If Season Ended Today
AFC
1Cincinnati
2Las Vegas
3Tennessee
4Buffalo
5Baltimore
6LA Chargers
7Cleveland

NFC
1Arizona
2Tampa Bay
3Green Bay
4Dallas
5LA Rams
6New Orleans
7Minnesota
Playoff Projection Seeds
AFC Seeding
1LA Chargers
2Buffalo
3Baltimore
4Tennessee
5Cincinnati
6Las Vegas
7Cleveland

NFC Seeding
1Arizona
2Tampa Bay
3Green Bay
4Dallas
5LA Rams
6Minnesota
7New Orleans
Wildcard Round
Buffalo over Cleveland
Las Vegas over Baltimore
Cincinnati over Tennessee
Tampa Bay over New Orleans
Green Bay over Minnesota
LA Rams over Dallas

Divisional Round
LA Chargers over Las Vegas
Buffalo over Cincinnati
LA Rams over Arizona
Tampa Bay over Green Bay

Conference Championship
LA Chargers over Buffalo
LA Rams over Tampa Bay

Super Bowl 56 (LA)
LA Rams over LA Chargers
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