The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 20, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 12: November 23-27, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Detroit Minnesota 2.1 2.6 1.5 44
Dallas LA Chargers 1.1 1.2 0.8 47
Washington N. Y. Giants 6.9 6.7 7.3 45
Cincinnati Cleveland 9.5 9.5 9.5 36
Philadelphia Chicago 17.3 15.5 18.5 44
New England Miami 19.5 19.3 20.2 44
Kansas City Buffalo 12.1 12.1 12.0 45
Atlanta Tampa Bay 9.5 9.4 9.6 51
N. Y. Jets Carolina -4.0 -3.9 -4.4 44
Indianapolis Tennessee -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 46
San Francisco Seattle -7.5 -8.0 -7.2 45
LA Rams New Orleans -1.1 -0.8 -1.3 53
Arizona Jacksonville -3.7 -3.5 -4.1 42
Oakland Denver 4.8 5.3 4.4 45
Pittsburgh Green Bay 11.8 11.4 12.5 41
Baltimore Houston 10.4 10.8 10.5 41

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 108.8 108.8 109.0 108.8 23 8-2
N. Y. Jets 95.8 95.3 96.0 95.7 19 4-6
Buffalo 94.9 95.2 95.0 95.0 23 5-5
Miami 92.3 92.5 91.7 92.2 21 4-6
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 106.3 106.4 106.5 106.4 21 8-2
Baltimore 104.3 104.8 104.2 104.4 19 5-5
Cincinnati 98.3 98.9 98.1 98.5 17 4-6
Cleveland 90.8 91.5 90.7 91.0 19 0-10
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 101.9 101.9 101.9 101.9 20 7-3
Tennessee 97.4 97.5 96.9 97.3 23 6-4
Houston 96.9 96.9 96.7 96.8 22 4-6
Indianapolis 94.0 94.1 93.7 93.9 23 3-7
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 103.9 104.4 104.0 104.1 22 6-4
LA Chargers 103.2 102.8 103.3 103.1 23 4-6
Oakland 97.9 98.5 97.1 97.8 23 4-6
Denver 96.1 96.1 95.8 96.0 22 3-7
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 109.7 108.1 111.0 109.6 25 9-1
Dallas 101.3 101.0 101.1 101.2 24 5-5
Washington 99.3 99.3 99.4 99.3 27 4-6
N.Y. Giants 94.9 95.1 94.6 94.9 18 2-8
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Minnesota 103.5 103.2 104.1 103.6 18 8-2
Detroit 102.6 102.8 102.6 102.7 26 6-4
Green Bay 97.6 98.0 97.0 97.5 20 5-5
Chicago 95.4 95.6 95.5 95.5 19 3-7
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 107.9 107.1 108.5 107.8 30 8-2
Atlanta 104.1 103.9 104.4 104.1 29 6-4
Carolina 102.9 102.2 103.4 102.8 25 7-3
Tampa Bay 97.7 97.5 97.8 97.7 22 4-6
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 103.7 103.3 104.2 103.7 23 7-3
Seattle 102.7 103.0 102.2 102.6 21 6-4
Arizona 95.2 95.4 94.8 95.1 22 4-6
San Francisco 92.1 92.0 92.0 92.0 24 1-9

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 New England
2 Pittsburgh
3 Jacksonville
4 LA Chargers
5 Kansas City
6 Baltimore
   
NFC Seeding
1 Philadelphia
2 New Orleans
3 LA Rams
4 Minnesota
5 Carolina
6 Seattle
Wildcard Round
Baltimore over Jacksonville
LA Chargers over Kansas City
LA Rams over Seattle
Carolina over Minnesota
 
Divisional Round
New England over Baltimore
Pittsburgh over LA Chargers
Philadelphia over Carolina
New Orleans over LA Rams
 
Conference Championship
Pittsburgh over New England
Philadelphia over New Orleans
 
Super Bowl 52
Philadelphia over Pittsburgh

 

 

 

 

 

 

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September 21, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for September 21-25, 2017

This Week’s Money Line Parlay Selections
We are going with four different selections, all combining two favorites at better than +130 odds.

#1 @ +161  
Must Win Must Lose
Boise St. Virginia
North Carolina Duke

#2 @ +145  
Must Win Must Lose
Wake Forest Appalachian St.
San Diego St. Air Force

#3 @ +133  
Must Win Must Lose
Miami NY Jets
Atlanta Detroit

#4 @ +164  
Must Win Must Lose
Kansas City LA Chargers
Denver Buffalo

 

Winner Winner but Not Enough Chicken to Call It Dinner
We prefaced last weeks two choices by telling you we were not all that confident with either one, because they both required five teams to win in order to win the two Money Line Parlay selections. As it turned out, we won one of the two, which guaranteed a winning week, but we were not all that happy with the outcome. You see, the other 5-game parlay quickly went 4-0 during Saturday afternoon. The final game of the parlay took place Saturday night in Columbia, South Carolina, where the Gamecocks hosted Kentucky. USC’s offense failed to show up, and Kentucky’s defense played exceptionally well, and poof went our hopes and dreams for a big payday.

With the exception of Kansas City having to hold on to beat Philadelphia, the five NFL games on our parlay were nondescript. All five teams won, and in most cases, their games were never in doubt.

So, for the week with our imaginary bankroll, we invested $200 and received back $376 for a return on investment of 88%. For the year, we are still in the hole, as we have invested $800 and received back $654 for a return on investment of -18%.

This week we double our selections to four, but the four games only require us to play two teams each. That’s the way we usually prefer to go–play two game parlays that return better than +120 odds. We have received multiple inquiries from you concerning how we figure our payout odds. We get this every year, and we realize that some of you are new to this site, so we apologize for not remembering this at the beginning of each season.

Here is the explanation in full so that even the first-time reader can understand.
The Money Line is different from wagering against the spread. In the normal spread wagering, if Team A is favored by 4 1/2 points over Team B, you can take one side over the other. If Team A wins by 5 or more points, that side wins the wager. If Team B wins or loses by less than 5 points, that side wins the wager.

In the Money Line, you only need to select the team that you believe will win the game, be it by 1 or 100 points. The difference here is that if you wager on the favorite, you must give the sports book better odds than you get. If you wager on the underdog, the sports book must give you better odds than they will get. Of course, the odds you get either way will be 10% shy of what the true odds would be, as the book must make its profit.

Let’s say that the Money Line for Team C vs. Team D is: Team C -200 and Team D +170. What this means is that if you wager on Team C, for every $2 you invest, you have the opportunity to win $1 in profit. In easier parlance, you must invest $200 to win $100 in profit. If you place a $100 bet on Team C to win, and they win, you receive back $150 (The $100 you invested + the $50 profit). If you wager on Team D, then for every $1 you invest, if Team D wins in an upset, you would receive $1.70 in profits. Thus, if you wagered $100 on Team D, and they pulled off the upset, you would receive $270 back from the book (The $100 you invested + $170 profit).

The PiRates have had some modicum of success wagering on multiple game Money Line parlays. Rather than wager on favorites and risk losing a lot more than winning when the upset occurs, we like to parlay (combine) games between favorites until the total odds exceed +120. That means that for every parlay we play, our reward for a win would exceed 20% profit. We believe we can find multiple favorites every week that when combined in a parlay, give us these wonderful odds as well as an excellent opportunity to win.

Let’s take a look at how a parlay works. We won’t bore you with the math, because we explained it one year, and it was a snooze fest. You don’t need to know how to calculate the payoff odds, as there are numerous Parlay Calculators available online. We like the one at vegasinsider.com. It is easy to use, and you can reset it and quickly do another game.

There is another key in getting the best odds–shop around. Besides the odds at Vegas Insider, we search Madduxsports.com, Oddsshark.com, and Covers.com among others.

Let’s take a look at how the parlay calculator works and how it applies to what we do. Let’s look at the Vegasinsider.com parlay calculator which you can find at: http://www.vegasinsider.com/parlay-calculator/.

Look at the money line odds for the teams you want to combine into a parlay. Let’s say that you know with close to 100% certainty that Ohio State will beat UNLV and Clemson will beat Boston College this week. Okay, so just about anybody could select this and believe they had it made. Okay, let’s now look at the Money Lines for these two games. As this is written early Thursday morning on the East Coast, we can find a Money Line for Ohio State at -54,000 and for Clemson at -20,825. Plug those two numbers into the calculator, and the result is: 0.67. This means if you wager $100 on this parlay, you stand a chance to win 67 cents back in profit. That’s why you would not play this parlay–it is ridiculous to risk $100 for receiving 67 cents change.

Now, let’s look at something more realistic. Let’s look at a couple of NFL games. Tonight, the LA Rams play at San Francisco. We can find current money line odds of -140 on LA. Now, look at Baltimore at Jacksonville. The Ravens’ money line odds from the identical book (each parlay must be played with just one book obviously), is -190. We plug in -140 and -190 in the calculator, and the result is: 161.65. Now, this is a number we like. We can put down $100 on this parlay, and if both the Rams and Ravens win, we would receive $261.65 back from the book ($100 invested + $161.65 profit). The catch is that both Baltimore and LA must win their games. If one doesn’t, then we are out that $100.

Let’s do just a little math now, because we are numbers’ nerds here on the SS Euclide PiRate Ship. Let’s say the average payout odds of all the games we select for an entire season are +167. What percentage of games must we win to break even for the year? Look at this the easy way. If we lose 5 games, we are out $500. If we win 3 games we make $501 in profit. So, we must win 3 out of every 8 games we select to break even, and that comes to 37.5% accuracy.

The last three seasons, we have exceeded this 37.5% success rate, two of the three years by quite a lot. It is our niche. We believe that we can successfully stay above 40%. At just 42.9%, we can return 14.4% on what we invest. At 44.4%, we can return 18.7% on what we invest. At 50%, we can return 33.5% on what we invest. Last year, we won more than we lost and took an 11% profit for the season. Two years ago was a windfall, as we topped 40%.

You might say that it is unwise to wager this amount for 11% profit, because you can return 11% in an average year by purchasing an S&P 500 ETF through a discount broker. That’s quite true, and we heartily endorse this over wagering on our recommendations. There are a couple of catches. First, the 11% return on your ETF requires 365 days. The 11% through the sports books only takes 5 months. That equates to an annual return of 26.4%, and you don’t have to worry about selling your stock all at once. You get weekly dividends when you win. Then, in January, you can take your winnings and invest them in that ETF, or Dogs of the Dow, or with Warren Buffett or Seth Klarman if you can.

OF COURSE, AND MAKE SURE YOU READ THIS–We do this just for fun and never wager real currency on our selections provided herein.  We suggest you do the same.

January 4, 2017

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Wildcard Playoff Round: January 7-8, 2017

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:31 am

NFL Playoffs–Wildcard Round

Oakland Raiders (12-4-0) at Houston Texans (9-7-0)

Saturday, January 7, 4:35 PM EST

TV: ESPN

Las Vegas Line: Houston by 3 1/2,

Totals Line: 36 1/2

Note: Raiders’ rookie QB Connor Cook will start

Texans expect to start Brock Osweiler at QB who will play at less than 100%

PiRate Spread: Houston by 2.7

Mean Spread: Houston by 3.0

Bias Spread: Houston by 1.8

Totals Spread: 46 points

100 Simulations

Houston wins 77

Oakland wins 23

Average score: Houston 23  Oakland 18

Outlier A: Houston 41  Oakland 13

Outlier B: Oakland 34  Houston 16

 

Detroit Lions (9-7-0) at Seattle Seahawks (10-5-1)

Saturday, January 7, 8:15 PM EST

TV: NBC

Las Vegas Line: Seattle by 8

Totals Line: 43

PiRate Spread: Seattle by 8.6

Mean Spread: Seattle by 6.9

Bias Spread: Seattle by 9.3

Totals Spread: 43 points

100 Simulations

Seattle wins 86

Detroit wins 14

Average Score: Seattle 26  Detroit 16

Outlier A: Seattle 42  Detroit 13

Outlier B: Detroit 27  Seattle 20

 

Miami Dolphins (10-6-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5-0)

Sunday, January 8, 1:05 PM EST

TV: CBS

Note: Miami QB Ryan Tannehill is out for this game.  Matt Moore will start.

Las Vegas Spread: Pittsburgh by 10

Totals Spread: 47

PiRate Spread: Pittsburgh by 9.9

Mean Spread: Pittsburgh by 9.8

Bias Spread: Pittsburgh by 10.0

Totals Spread: 45 points

100 Simulations

Pittsburgh wins 73

Miami wins 27

Average Score: Pittsburgh 25  Miami 20

Outlier A: Pittsburgh 35  Miami 10

Outlier B: Miami 19  Pittsburgh 10

 

New York Giants (11-5-0) at Green Bay Packers (10-6-0)

Sunday, January 8, 4:40 PM EST

TV: Fox

Las Vegas Line: Green Bay by 5

Totals Line: 44 1/2

PiRate Spread: Green Bay by 5.6

Mean Spread: Green Bay by 6.1

Bias Spread: Green Bay by 5.0

Totals Spread: 57 points

100 simulations

Green Bay wins 59

New York wins 41

Average Score: Green Bay 26  New York 24

Outlier A: Green Bay 31  New York 13

Outlier B: New York 30  Green Bay 17

December 27, 2016

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Week 17: January 1, 2017

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:46 am

Not Much Left To Be Decided
Week 16’s results greatly reduced the importance of the season’s final week. 10 of the 12 playoff spots have been earned already, and from the remaining spots left to be awarded, just three teams will vie for them.

AFC
We know that New England, Oakland, PIttsburgh, Houston, Kansas City, and Miami will be the six conference teams in the playoffs, but there is still some work to be done to determine the exact seeding. It is not that hard at this point.

New England holds the key to home field advantage to the Super Bowl. If the Patriots win this weekend against Miami, they secure the #1 seed. If Oakland loses to Denver, then the Pats also would get the top seed, win or lose.

Oakland can still earn the top seed if the Raiders (sans QB Derek Carr) beat Denver, and Miami beats New England. If Oakland and New England both win, the Raiders will be the #2 seed.

Pittsburgh has clinched the #3 seed and will host the #6 seed wildcard team, no matter what happens this weekend.

Houston has clinched the #4 seed and will host the #5 seed wildcard team, no matter what happens this weekend.

In the West, if Kansas City wins at San Diego, and Oakland loses to Denver, then the Chiefs will win the division, claim the #2 seed, and earn a bye to the divisional playoff round, while Oakland drops to the #5 seed.

If Kansas City and Oakland both win, then Oakland wins the division and first round bye, while KC becomes the #5 Seed. If Kansas City loses, and Miami wins over New England, then the Dolphins jump over KC for the #5 seed, pushing the Chiefs back to #6. A Chiefs win or Dolphins loss would leave Miami as the #6 seed.

NFC
Dallas has clinched the top seed overall and will enjoy a first round bye and home field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs. Their finale against Philadelphia is meaningless, so Tony Romo could get to see action this weekend.

The leader for the #2 seed and first round bye going into Week 17 is Atlanta. If the Falcons beat New Orleans, they clinch the bye. If Atlanta loses, and Seattle bests San Francisco, the Seahawks would then elevate to the #2 seed. Additionally, if thr Falcons lose, and Detroit beats Green Bay, Atlanta would fall to #4 seed, while the Lions jump to #3.

If both Seattle and Atlanta lose, and then Detroit beats Green Bay, the Lions would move into the #2 seed slot and earn a bye.

Green Bay cannot jump over Atlanta if the Packers beat the Lions, while Atlanta loses to New Orleans, regardless of what Seattle does. The Packers lose all tiebreakers to the Falcons.

As for the last two playoff spots, the Giants have clinched the #5 seed and their game with Washington is meaningless to them. However, it means everything to the Redskins. A Washington win to move to 9-6-1 puts the Redskins in the playoffs over the loser of the Green Bay-Detroit game. If Washington loses this game, then the loser of the Packers-Lions game would back into the #6 Seed.

Here are this week’s PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
New England 111.3 109.8 112.3 111.1 68 43
Buffalo 101.5 101.8 101.7 101.7 63 39
Miami 99.4 99.1 99.9 99.4 60 39
N. Y. Jets 92.3 91.8 92.4 92.2 57 35
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Pittsburgh 105.2 104.9 105.7 105.3 63 42
Baltimore 101.0 101.8 100.9 101.2 61 40
Cincinnati 101.2 101.0 101.2 101.2 59 42
Cleveland 88.8 89.6 88.7 89.0 56 33
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Indianapolis 100.1 101.4 99.8 100.4 64 36
Houston 97.5 98.1 97.0 97.5 60 38
Tennessee 96.8 97.7 96.5 97.0 59 38
Jacksonville 95.1 96.1 94.9 95.4 60 35
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Kansas City 105.5 105.3 106.1 105.6 65 41
Oakland 102.2 102.7 102.9 102.6 67 36
Denver 102.6 102.1 101.8 102.1 60 42
San Diego 97.6 98.6 97.2 97.8 63 35
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Dallas 105.7 105.1 106.2 105.7 64 42
Washington 102.1 101.6 102.2 102.0 62 40
N.Y. Giants 100.0 99.4 100.3 99.9 62 38
Philadelphia 99.9 98.9 99.5 99.4 60 39
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Green Bay 103.0 102.7 102.9 102.9 67 36
Minnesota 99.5 99.3 99.1 99.3 57 42
Detroit 99.3 99.1 99.0 99.1 61 38
Chicago 92.8 92.0 92.5 92.5 55 38
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Atlanta 108.6 109.1 108.8 108.8 72 37
Carolina 101.5 101.5 101.6 101.5 60 42
New Orleans 101.1 101.6 101.5 101.4 68 33
Tampa Bay 101.3 101.4 101.4 101.4 63 38
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Seattle 105.1 103.2 105.5 104.6 63 42
Arizona 102.5 101.7 102.4 102.2 63 39
Los Angeles 92.9 93.7 92.3 93.0 54 39
San Francisco 89.1 90.0 88.6 89.2 55 34

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Atlanta New Orleans 10.5 10.5 10.3 70
Cincinnati Baltimore 2.2 1.2 2.3 38
Detroit Green Bay -0.7 -0.6 -0.9 54
Indianapolis Jacksonville 7.0 7.3 6.9 63
Miami New England -8.9 -7.7 -9.4 48
Minnesota Chicago 8.7 9.3 8.6 33
New York Jets Buffalo -8.2 -9.0 -8.3 47
Philadelphia Dallas -1.8 -2.2 -2.7 44
Pittsburgh Cleveland 17.4 16.3 18.0 45
Tampa Bay Carolina 0.8 0.9 0.8 44
Tennessee Houston 0.3 0.6 0.5 44
Washington New York Giants 5.1 5.2 4.9 46
Denver Oakland 3.4 2.4 1.9 47
Los Angeles Arizona -8.6 -7.0 -9.1 39
San Diego Kansas City -6.9 -5.7 -6.9 52
San Francisco Seattle -13.0 -10.2 -13.9 44

 

December 13, 2016

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Week 15: December 15-19, 2016

Three Week Sprint

With three weeks to go in the 2016 season, only Philadelphia, Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco, the NY Jets, Cleveland, Jacksonville, and San Diego have been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.  You can add New Orleans, Carolina, Arizona, Buffalo, and Cincinnati to the list that are not playoff bound this year, as these five teams need miracles to make the postseason.

That leaves 19 teams competing for 12 playoff spots.  Let’s take a look at each division.

AFC East

New England would have to lose three straight, while Miami wins three straight for the Dolphins to win the division.  Because one of those prospective Pats’ losses would have to be against the Jets, the chances become about the same as being hit by lightning on a sunny day.

Miami is in contention for the 6th seed with Denver, but as of today, the Broncos have the small advantage based on wins against common opponents.  Miami closes with games at the Jets and Bills and a home finale against New England.

Buffalo has a very slim chance of getting a wildcard bid.  The Bills must win out against Cleveland, Miami, and the Jets, and then they need a lot of help, definitely more than they can expect.  It looks like the longest playoff drought will extend to 17 seasons.

 

AFC North

Pittsburgh leads Baltimore by a game, but this race is still close to a tossup with three weeks to go.  The Ravens won at Pittsburgh earlier in the year, and the teams must still play in Baltimore in two weeks.  Both contenders must still play at Cincinnati, so there is an infinitesimal chance that the Bengals could win out at 8-7-1 and steal the division over 8-8 rivals.  For that to happen, Baltimore must beat Pittsburgh, and then the Steelers have to lose at home to Cleveland.

 

AFC South

This is the most interesting race in the NFL.  Three teams can still win this division, and the two that do not have little to no chance of winning a wildcard bid.  Houston and Tennessee are tied at 7-6, with Indianapolis a game back at 6-7.  The Texans have the easiest road to the finish line, as their schedule brings Jacksonville and Cincinnati to Reliant Stadium, before the Texans finish at Tennessee.

The Titans must travel to Arrowhead Stadium to take on Kansas City, and a loss in this game would mean that Houston would have to lose at home for Week 17 to matter.

Indianapolis can only win the division by finishing a game ahead of Houston and at least tied with Tennessee.  The Colts have the toughest remaining schedule of the three rivals (including road games against Minnesota and Oakland), so it looks like the Texans are prohibitive favorites for now.

 

AFC West

Kansas City now controls its own destiny for a bye in the playoffs and guaranteed home game in the Divisional Round.  The Chiefs still have a shot at securing home field advantage throughout the AFC Playoffs.

Oakland remains in contention for the division title, but for now, the Raiders look like the #5 seed.  They could still stumble into the 6th seed.

Denver has little room for error.  The Broncos are now tied with Miami and hold a precarious tiebreaker, but a 10-6 record could force the reigning Super Bowl Champions out of the playoffs.

 

NFC East

The Dallas Cowboys look unbeatable when the opponent does not have an “N” and a “Y” on their football helmets.  Big D still owns a two-game cushion for the top record in the NFC, but their next two games are going to be tough.  A hot Tampa Bay team comes to Jerryworld this week, followed by a visit from the number two team in the NFC, Detroit.  Losses in both games could allow the Lions to emerge as the #1 seed.

The New York Giants host the Lions this week in what could be the top game on the slate.  A Giant win actually gives Eli Manning and company a shot to win the Division and even earn the top seed, but more than likely this team will have to settle for the #5 seed.

Washington is still very much alive for a wildcard bid.  The Redskins must beat Carolina and Chicago the next two weeks before closing with the Giants.

 

NFC North

Detroit has a firm hold on this division with a two-game lead over Minnesota and Green Bay, but stranger things have happened before.  The Lions have a very tough closing troika of games and could lose any or all of them (@NYG, @Dal, vs. GB).

Should the Lions swoon in the stretch, Green Bay has a slim advantage over Minnesota, as the Packers still play the Lions, while the Vikings were swept by Detroit and can only take the division title if Detroit loses all three, and the Vikings win all three (which would include a win over Green Bay).  The chances are below average that this division will produce a wildcard team, but it is not impossible.

 

NFC South

Atlanta and Tampa Bay are locked in a fantastic finish for the division title, and the team that does not win the flag has a better than average chance of taking a wildcard spot.  If Carolina beats Atlanta, and then the Falcons and Buc finish 10-6, Tampa Bay would win the division.

 

NFC West

Seattle would have to lose its final three games, which includes dropping games to the Rams and 49ers, and Arizona would have to win its final three games, which includes winning at Seattle, for the Cardinals to surpass the Seahawks for the division title.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
New England 109.0 107.8 109.8 108.9 67 42
Buffalo 101.8 102.0 102.1 102.0 63 39
Miami 97.4 97.6 97.6 97.5 59 39
N. Y. Jets 95.5 94.4 95.9 95.3 57 38
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Pittsburgh 105.1 104.7 105.7 105.2 63 42
Cincinnati 101.6 101.3 101.7 101.6 60 42
Baltimore 100.9 101.9 100.8 101.2 61 40
Cleveland 87.6 88.5 87.4 87.8 55 33
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Tennessee 98.4 99.2 98.2 98.6 61 38
Indianapolis 97.9 99.5 97.4 98.3 62 36
Houston 97.5 98.2 96.9 97.5 61 37
Jacksonville 92.9 94.2 92.4 93.2 58 35
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Denver 105.0 104.2 104.5 104.5 63 42
Kansas City 104.2 104.0 104.8 104.3 64 40
Oakland 102.1 102.6 102.8 102.5 67 36
San Diego 98.9 99.8 98.6 99.1 63 36
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Dallas 104.5 103.9 104.9 104.4 62 42
Washington 101.9 101.5 102.0 101.8 63 39
N.Y. Giants 99.6 99.1 99.9 99.5 62 38
Philadelphia 99.7 98.6 99.1 99.1 60 39
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Minnesota 102.6 102.0 102.5 102.4 59 43
Green Bay 102.3 102.1 102.2 102.2 66 36
Detroit 101.1 100.8 101.0 101.0 62 39
Chicago 94.0 93.0 93.8 93.6 56 38
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Atlanta 107.2 107.9 107.2 107.4 71 36
Tampa Bay 101.5 101.6 101.6 101.6 63 39
Carolina 101.5 101.4 101.6 101.5 60 42
New Orleans 100.1 100.9 100.3 100.4 67 33
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Seattle 105.8 103.6 106.3 105.2 62 43
Arizona 102.3 101.4 102.2 102.0 63 39
Los Angeles 94.0 94.8 93.6 94.2 54 40
San Francisco 88.6 89.6 88.0 88.7 54 35

This Week’s PiRate Spreads & Totals

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Seattle Los Angeles 14.8 11.8 15.7 34
New York Jets Miami 0.6 -0.7 0.8 40
Baltimore Philadelphia 3.2 5.3 3.7 44
Buffalo Cleveland 16.7 16.0 17.2 48
Chicago Green Bay -5.8 -6.6 -5.9 50
Dallas Tampa Bay 6.0 5.3 6.3 46
Houston Jacksonville 7.6 7.0 7.5 49
Kansas City Tennessee 8.8 7.8 9.6 49
Minnesota Indianapolis 7.7 5.5 8.1 44
New York Giants Detroit 1.5 0.3 1.9 49
Arizona New Orleans 5.2 3.5 4.9 60
Atlanta San Francisco 21.6 21.3 22.2 56
Denver New England -1.0 -0.6 -2.3 48
San Diego Oakland -0.7 -0.3 -1.7 60
Cincinnati Pittsburgh -1.0 -0.9 -1.5 41
Washington Carolina 2.9 2.6 2.9 44

 

December 8, 2016

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–December 9-12, 2016

This week, there is only one college game with Army and Navy facing off in Baltimore.  Thus, we must make our selections only from the NFL schedule.  We are throwing caution to the wind, as even though we have a small 6% profit for the season entering this week, we are not going to a stall to guarantee a winning season.  We want to make that Return on Investment top 10%, and thus we are going with three parlays this week.  Each parlay goes off at odds higher than +200, so winning just one of the three would add profit to our imaginary bankroll for the season.

1. NFL Parlay at +220
Indianapolis over Houston
Detroit over Chicago
Tampa Bay over New Orleans

Let us make sure you understand that we are aware of the Colts’ having to make major defensive changes after losing star D’Qwell Jackson for four games due to a suspension for Performance Enhancing substances.  Jackson was the key to the Indy defense, but his loss has made this parlay a better play for us.

The way we see the Colts-Texans game is that Indy will outscore Houston and not have to worry about Jackson missing on the stop side.  Houston has scored just 99 points in their last six games, while Indianapolis with Andrew Luck is a team capable of scoring 35 points in this game.

 

Detroit is ready to wrap up the NFC North Division, and this is a game the Lions should win handily.  The Bears are limping home and might decide to pull a NY Jets this weekend, or at least we hope they might.

 

Tampa Bay is now a slight favorite to win the NFC South with second year quarterback Jameis Winston maturing into a potential star.  The Bucs’ defense is not to be confused with Carolina’s, but TB should be able to match Drew Brees point for point and come up with one or two big plays to win.

 

2. NFL Parlay at +248
Carolina over San Diego
Miami over Arizona

The Panthers and Chargers are now out of the playoff race, and the only reason we believe Carolina will win this game is that San Diego has been forced to do a lot of travelling this season and must go 2,500 miles and three time zones this week.  The game should be a fascinating close match.

 

Miami has a slim chance to earn a wildcard bid, but the Dolphins must win out and then get some help.  Arizona is going nowhere, and they too must travel across the country.

 

3. NFL Parlay at +211
N. Y. Jets over San Francisco
New England over Baltimore

The key to this parlay is whether the Jets will show that Monday night was a fluke.  Will the team show up for Todd Bowles and give him a chance to keep his job?  Just a normal effort would be enough to lead NY to victory over a 49ers team that may be weaker than Cleveland at the present time.

 

We are throwing the Patriots into this parlay to bring the odds up over +200.  Baltimore will not lay down in this game and allow New England to win going away, and the Pats will have to bring their A-game without Gronk.  However, we believe (hope) the Pats realize they are now in a dogfight for the #1 seed and understand that this is a must-win game.

 

 

 

 

November 23, 2016

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–November 24-28, 2016

Tiny Profit

After a week in which we won two of our five selected parlays, our profit for the season has fallen to a slim margin, but it is a profit.  For the year, we have invested $4,900 in imaginary dollars, and our return has been $5,152.  The $252 in imaginary profit gives us a return on investment of 5%.

This week, we are going with six parlay selections.  One of these is a five-game parlay, and we have not yet won a five-gamer this year.  We have won multiple four-game parlays this year.

November 22-28, 2016
1. College Parlay at +175
Oregon over Oregon St.
North Texas over UTEP
 
2. College Parlay at +126
Bowling Green over Buffalo
Maryland over Rutgers
Penn St. over Michigan St.
Miami (Fla.) over Duke
Alabama over Auburn
 
3. College Parlay at +173
Arkansas over Missouri
North Carolina over NC St.
Arizona St. over Arizona
 
4. College Parlay at +183
Louisiana Tech over Southern Miss.
Wisconsin over Minnesota
Colorado over Utah
South Florida over Central Florida
UTSA over Charlotte
 
5. NFL Parlay at +189
Detroit over Minnesota
Tennessee over Chicago
 
6. NFL Parlay at +140
Buffalo over Jacksonville
New Orleans over Los Angeles
N.Y. Giants over Cleveland

November 22, 2016

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Week 12: November 24-28, 2016

The Best Thanksgiving Day Football Season Ever

The Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys have been Thanksgiving Day fixtures in the NFL annual scheduling, and there have been some mighty exciting turkey day games as well as some outright turkeys.

In all the years of Thanksgiving Day football, one year stands out as the best ever.  It was November 25, 1971, and on that day, the four NFL teams involved were all in tight races for playoff spots.

Detroit hosted Kansas City in the early game.  The Lions were 6-3-1, chasing Minnesota but ahead of Washington for the lone NFC Wildcard spot.  Kansas City was a game behind Oakland but the leader in the Wildcard race of the AFC.  The Lions won that day to move to 7-3-1, dropping the Chiefs to 7-3-1.  KC would win out to beat out Oakland, while Detroit would drop its final three to finish 7-6-1 and out of the playoffs.

In the afternoon game, Dallas hosted the Los Angeles Rams.  The 7-3 Cowboys had won three in a row once Coach Tom Landry inserted Roger Staubach as full-time starter.  The Rams were trying to keep pace with the division leading San Francisco 49ers, and the winner of this game would be in great shape to make the playoffs.  Dallas emerged victorious to run its winning streak to four and would keep winning every week until they had their first Super Bowl title.  The Rams would miss out on the playoffs by one game.

We have yet to provide the icing on the cake for why 11/25/71 was the best ever Thanksgiving Day for football fans.  It was the college game that made this date so special.  Undefeated and #1 Nebraska played undefeated and #2 Oklahoma with the winner almost assured of facing the winner of #3 Alabama and #4 Auburn in the Orange Bowl.  It has been called the greatest college football game ever, and you can find most or all of it online with a Youtube search.

This Week’s NFL PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
New England 109.3 108.0 110.1 109.1 67 42
Buffalo 103.6 103.7 104.1 103.8 64 40
Miami 98.7 99.0 98.9 98.8 60 39
N. Y. Jets 97.9 96.8 98.3 97.7 58 40
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Pittsburgh 102.9 102.8 103.4 103.0 62 41
Cincinnati 100.6 100.3 100.8 100.6 60 41
Baltimore 99.0 100.1 98.7 99.3 61 38
Cleveland 87.9 88.8 87.6 88.1 55 33
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Indianapolis 98.3 99.5 98.0 98.6 62 37
Houston 98.0 98.7 97.5 98.1 61 37
Tennessee 97.5 98.8 97.1 97.8 61 37
Jacksonville 93.0 94.5 92.4 93.3 58 35
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Denver 105.8 104.5 105.5 105.2 63 42
Kansas City 103.2 103.1 103.6 103.3 63 40
Oakland 100.4 101.0 101.1 100.8 66 35
San Diego 99.8 100.6 99.6 100.0 65 35
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Dallas 104.1 103.4 104.7 104.1 63 41
Philadelphia 103.3 101.7 103.1 102.7 63 40
Washington 101.9 101.6 102.0 101.8 63 39
N.Y. Giants 99.2 98.8 99.3 99.1 62 37
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Minnesota 102.8 102.0 102.7 102.5 60 43
Detroit 99.1 98.9 98.9 99.0 61 38
Green Bay 97.5 97.6 97.1 97.4 62 35
Chicago 93.3 92.1 93.0 92.8 56 37
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Atlanta 103.7 104.7 103.7 104.0 69 35
Carolina 102.9 102.9 102.9 102.9 62 41
New Orleans 100.4 101.4 100.5 100.8 67 34
Tampa Bay 98.6 99.1 98.4 98.7 62 37
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Seattle 108.1 105.6 108.8 107.5 64 44
Arizona 103.7 102.3 103.7 103.2 64 39
Los Angeles 98.2 98.9 98.0 98.4 56 42
San Francisco 89.8 90.9 89.3 90.0 54 36

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Detroit Minnesota -0.7 -0.1 -0.8 42
Dallas Washington 5.2 4.8 5.7 48
Indianapolis Pittsburgh -1.6 -0.3 -2.4 48
Atlanta Arizona 3.5 5.9 3.5 51
Baltimore Cincinnati 0.9 2.3 0.4 44
Buffalo Jacksonville 13.6 12.2 14.7 49
Chicago Tennessee -1.2 -3.7 -1.1 45
Cleveland New York Giants -8.8 -7.5 -9.2 49
Houston San Diego 1.2 1.1 0.9 56
Miami San Francisco 12.4 11.6 13.1 41
New Orleans Los Angeles 5.2 5.5 5.5 48
Tampa Bay Seattle -6.0 -3.0 -6.9 47
Denver Kansas City 5.6 4.4 4.9 46
Oakland Carolina 0.5 1.1 1.2 54
New York Jets New England -8.9 -8.7 -9.3 45
Philadelphia Green Bay 8.8 7.1 9.0 52

If The Playoffs Began Today

AFC
1 Oakland
2 New England
3 Houston
4 Baltimore
5 Kansas City
6 Denver
   
NFC
1 Dallas
2 Seattle
3 Detroit
4 Atlanta
5 N.Y. Giants
6 Washington

PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 New England
2 Oakland
3 Indianapolis
4 Baltimore
5 Denver
6 Kansas City
   
NFC Seeding
1 Dallas
2 Seattle
3 Detroit
4 Atlanta
5 Washington
6 N.Y. Giants

 

Wildcard Round
Kansas City over Indianapolis
Baltimore over Denver
New York Giants over Detroit
Washington over Atlanta
 
Divisional Round
New England over Kansas City
Oakland over Baltimore
Dallas over New York Giants
Seattle over Washington
 
Conference Championship
Oakland over New England
Seattle over Dallas
 
Super Bowl 51
Seattle over Oakland

 

 

 

November 17, 2016

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–November 17-21, 2016

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:00 am

Abbreviated Post today due to time concerns.

Here are our 5 parlay picks for this week

 

November 15-21, 2016
1. College Parlay at +120
Memphis over Cincinnati
Pittsburgh over Duke
South Florida over SMU
 
2. College Parlay at +318
Virginia Tech over Notre Dame
Central Florida over Tulsa
 
3. College Parlay at +163
Ole Miss over Vanderbilt
USC over UCLA
Nebraska over Maryland
LSU over Florida
Utah over Oregon
 
4. NFL Parlay at +132
Indianapolis over Tennessee
Detroit over Jacksonville
 
5. NFL Parlay at +139
Kansas City over Tampa Bay
Seattle over Philadelphia
N.Y. Giants over Chicago

 

November 8, 2016

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Week 10: November 10-14, 2016

Beginning today, we start posting playoff projections.  Our playoff projections look ahead to remaining schedules and use a combination of Pirate Ratings and home field advantage to estimate the remaining won-loss records of all the teams.  Even though the last place teams do not figure to make the playoffs, we have to project their records as well in order to break ties.

In the AFC, we are projecting that it will take a minimum record of 10-6 to earn a wildcard spot.  It is a tiny bit easier in the NFC as of this week, as we project a 9-6-1 record will qualify for the playoffs.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
New England 110.7 109.2 111.8 110.6 67 44
Buffalo 103.2 103.3 103.7 103.4 63 40
N. Y. Jets 98.4 97.0 99.0 98.1 58 40
Miami 97.0 97.4 97.0 97.1 59 38
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Pittsburgh 102.8 102.7 103.5 103.0 62 41
Cincinnati 102.0 101.7 102.2 102.0 61 41
Baltimore 98.5 99.9 98.1 98.8 61 38
Cleveland 88.9 89.6 88.6 89.0 56 33
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Houston 98.1 99.0 97.9 98.3 61 37
Indianapolis 97.6 98.8 97.2 97.9 62 36
Tennessee 96.0 97.5 95.6 96.4 58 38
Jacksonville 92.9 94.5 92.2 93.2 58 35
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Denver 105.6 104.2 105.3 105.0 63 42
Kansas City 103.9 103.9 104.3 104.0 64 40
San Diego 100.5 101.2 100.4 100.7 65 36
Oakland 100.1 100.5 100.5 100.4 65 35
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Dallas 102.8 102.0 103.3 102.7 62 41
Philadelphia 103.2 101.5 102.7 102.5 63 40
Washington 100.3 100.1 100.3 100.2 62 38
N.Y. Giants 99.4 99.0 99.6 99.3 62 37
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Minnesota 103.1 102.3 103.0 102.8 59 44
Green Bay 101.0 100.9 100.7 100.9 62 39
Detroit 99.0 98.7 98.9 98.9 61 38
Chicago 95.4 94.0 95.1 94.9 56 39
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Atlanta 103.8 104.9 104.1 104.2 69 35
Carolina 103.5 103.3 103.6 103.5 62 42
New Orleans 100.2 101.4 100.3 100.6 67 34
Tampa Bay 95.3 96.0 94.9 95.4 59 36
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Seattle 106.5 104.1 107.1 105.9 62 44
Arizona 105.1 103.4 105.4 104.6 66 39
Los Angeles 98.4 99.4 98.1 98.7 57 42
San Francisco 88.9 90.3 88.0 89.1 53 36

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Baltimore Cleveland 12.1 12.8 12.0 48
Carolina Kansas City 2.6 2.4 2.3 45
Jacksonville Houston -2.7 -2.0 -3.2 49
New Orleans Denver -2.4 0.2 -2.0 54
New York Jets Los Angeles 3.0 0.6 3.9 35
Philadelphia Atlanta 2.4 -0.4 1.6 48
Tampa Bay Chicago 2.9 5.0 2.8 42
Tennessee Green Bay -2.0 -0.4 -2.1 45
Washington Minnesota 0.2 0.8 0.3 41
San Diego Miami 6.5 6.8 6.4 52
Arizona San Francisco 19.2 16.1 20.4 46
Pittsburgh Dallas 3.0 3.7 3.2 44
New England Seattle 7.2 8.1 7.7 43
New York Giants Cincinnati 0.4 0.3 0.4 47

If The Playoffs Began Today

AFC
1 New England
2 Oakland
3 Houston
4 Baltimore
5 Kansas City
6 Denver
   
NFC
1 Dallas
2 Atlanta
3 Seattle
4 Minnesota
5 New York Giants
6 Washington

 

PiRate Ratings Projected Playoffs 

AFC Seeding
1 New England
2 Oakland
3 Indianapolis
4 Pittsburgh
5 Denver
6 Kansas City
   
NFC Seeding
1 Dallas
2 Seattle
3 Atlanta
4 Detroit
5 New York Giants
6 Washington

Wildcard Round

Kansas City over Indianapolis

Pittsburgh over Denver

Atlanta over Washington

New York Giants over Detroit

 

Divisional Round

New England over Kansas City

Oakland over Pittsburgh

New York Giants over Dallas

Seattle over Atlanta

 

Conference Championships

New England over Oakland

New York Giants over Seattle

 

SUPER BOWL

New York Giants over New England

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