The Pi-Rate Ratings

February 1, 2017

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Super Bowl LI: February 1, 2017

We present our Super Bowl LI preview a few days later than originally planned, but we decided that 100 computer simulations were not enough.  Over the last several days, we have visited the big bits and bytes to run numerous simulations on the big game.  We stopped at 10,000, the going rate among other simulators out there.

After running the first 100, we recorded the results to see how much different the results from 10,000 simulations.  What we found was that one metric definitely and consistently came through in both 100 and 10,000 sims that could be used by somebody unconcerned with losing a lot of their investment.  See below for the shocking revelation concerning this game and the Las Vegas Books.

Let’s get on with the data.

Super Bowl LI

Date: Sunday, February 5, 2017

Time: 6:30 PM EST

Place: Houston, TX

TV: Fox Sports

Radio: Westwood One

Find Your Affiliate Here

Online: Foxsports.com

AFC Champion: New England Patriots 16-2-0

NFC Champion: Atlanta Falcons 13-5-0

 

Las Vegas Info

Current Line (2/1/17 @ 10AM EST): New England by 3

Totals Line: 59

Money Line: New England -155, Atlanta +135

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate: New England by 2.4

Mean: New England by 0.6

Bias: New England by 3.2

Average: New England by 2

Total: 60

 

10,000 Simulations

The winner when we simulated 100 times was the same as the winner when we simulated 10,000 times.  The average margin minimally changed between 100 and 10,000 sims.

The standard deviation went down a little with 10,000 sims, but that was to be expected with so many more sims.

What surprised us was the definite deviation between the Total Points and the Vegas Total, and it is so wide that we felt compelled to highlight this even though we BEG you not to bet on this game using our data and cannot stress enough that we bet $0 on sporting events.

 

Wins: New England 53.9%  Atlanta 46.1%

Percentage going to overtime: 0.87%

Average Score: New England 24.3  Atlanta 23.2  ***47.5 points***

St Deviation: 7.3 (almost 2 deviations difference in Vegas Total)

Outlier A: New England 34  Atlanta 7

Outlier B: Atlanta 29  New England 10

Percentage of outcomes under 59 total points: 87.78%

If you haven’t caught on, the computer simulator says that about 7 out of every 8 times these two teams would face off in Houston, the total score would be less than 59 points.

This disagrees with our own PiRate Rating expected total of 60, but our totals have been totally pitiful this year.  I would trust this simulator over our own ratings.

 

So, we would make the UNDER 59 our best advice for this game, but once again we beg, urge, and plead with you not to wager money using the information we supply to you.  We are in this just for fun.

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August 30, 2015

2015 NFC South Preview

Rarely does a team win five fewer games than the season before and still make the playoffs, but the Carolina Panthers repeated as NFC South champions in 2014 with a 7-8-1 record following a 12-4-0 finish in 2013.  The Panthers won the division because the New Orleans Saints fell four games off their 2013 pace, the Falcons only improved to 6-10, and the Bucs ended up earning the first pick in the draft.

 

All four teams begin 2015 with key additions.  For Atlanta, it’s a head coach, as Dan Quinn becomes a head coach for the first time after putting together the great Seattle defense.  Carolina hopes it has plugged a leak in their offensive line with the signing of left tackle Michael Oher, while bringing in Ted Ginn, Jr. at receiver.  New Orleans added a cover corner in Brandon Browner, while Tampa Bay had the biggest addition of all–they have Jameis Winston, the league’s top pick.

 

This may be the most difficult division to forecast, as even the weak Bucs have improved enough and have the schedule to challenge for the division title.  Atlanta has the passing game and should be improved defensively, and since 8-8 could win the division, in theory, they only need to improve by two wins.  New Orleans’ defense needs improvement, and the Saints will have to score a lot of points this year.  Bear in mind that Jimmy Graham has left the building.  That leaves Carolina; can the Panthers three-peat?  Yes, it is quite possible, but in reality, this is a team that fell to a losing record last year, and a couple game slide this year could find the Panthers in last place.

ATLANTA FALCONS

Falcons Starting Lineup
Offense
WR Julio Jones
WR Roddy White
WR Leonard Hankerson
TE Jacob Tamme
LT Jake Matthews
LG Mike Person
C Joe Hawley
RG Chris Chester
RT Ryan Schraeder
QB Matt Ryan
HB Devonta Freeman
FB Patrick DiMarco
   
Defense
DE Vic Beasley
DT Ra’Shede Hageman
DT Paul Soliai
DE Tyson Jackson
LB Justin Durant
LB Paul Worrilow
LB Brooks Reed
CB Desmond Trufant
S William Moore
S Ricardo Allen
CB Robert Alford
N5 Jalen Collins
   
Special
Kicker Matt Bryant
Punter Matt Bosher
KR Devin Hester
PR Devin Hester
Atlanta Falcons
Head Coach Dan Quinn
Off. Coordinator Kyle Shanahan
Def. Coordinator Richard Smith
2014 W-L-T 6-10-0
Pts 23.8
Opp 26.1
   
Ratings  
PiRate 95.7
Mean 96.1
Bias 95.8
Average 95.9
   
Grades  
Running C
Passing A-
Vs. Run C
Vs. Pass C-
Special Teams A
Coaching + Intangibles C
   
Predicted W-L 7-9-0
Division Rank 3
Conference Rank 13
Overall Rank 25
Postseason No

 

CAROLINA PANTHERS

Panthers Starting Lineup
Offense
WR Corey Brown
WR Ted Ginn, Jr.
WR Devin Funchess
TE Greg Olsen
LT Michael Oher
LG Andrew Norwell
C Ryan Kalil
RG Trai Turner
RT Mike Remmers
QB Cam Newton
HB Jonathan Stewart
FB Mike Tolbert
   
Defense
DE Charles Johnson
DT Star Lotulelei
DT Kawann Short
DE Kony Ealy
LB A. J. Klein
LB Luke Kuechley
LB Thomas Davis
CB Charles Tillman
S Roman Harper
S Tre Boston
CB Josh Norman
N5 Bene Benwikere
   
Special
Kicker Graham Gano
Punter Brad Nortman
KR Ted Ginn, Jr.
PR Ted Ginn, Jr.
Carolina Panthers
Head Coach Ron Rivera
Off. Coordinator Mike Shula
Def. Coordinator Sean McDermott
2014 W-L-T 7-8-1
Pts 21.2
Opp 23.4
   
Ratings  
PiRate 100.8
Mean 100.0
Bias 101.0
Average 100.6
   
Grades  
Running C-
Passing C
Vs. Run A-
Vs. Pass C+
Special Teams C
Coaching + Intangibles C+
   
Predicted W-L 7-9-0
Division Rank 1
Conference Rank 7
Overall Rank 15
Postseason No

 

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Saints Starting Lineup
Offense
WR Brandin Cooks
WR Marques Colston
WR Brandon Coleman
TE Benjamin Watson
LT Terron Armstead
LG Tim Lelito
C Max Unger
RG Jahri Evans
RT Zach Strief
QB Drew Brees
HB Mark Ingram
FB Austin Johnson
   
Defense
DE Akiem Hicks
DT John Jenkins
DT Kevin Williams
DE Cameron Jordan
LB Hau’oli Kikaha
LB David Hawthorne
LB Dannelle Ellerbe
CB Keenan Lewis
S Kenny Vaccaro
S Jairus Byrd
CB Brandon Browner
N5 Rafael Bush
   
Special
Kicker Zach Hocker
Punter Thomas Morstead
KR C. J. Spiller
PR C. J. Spiller
New Orleans Saints
Head Coach Sean Payton
Off. Coordinator Pete Carmichael
Def. Coordinator Rob Ryan
2014 W-L-T 7-9-0
Pts 25.1
Opp 26.5
   
Ratings  
PiRate 100.1
Mean 95.4
Bias 101.1
Average 98.9
   
Grades  
Running C+
Passing A
Vs. Run C-
Vs. Pass C+
Special Teams C-
Coaching + Intangibles B+
   
Predicted W-L 8-8-0
Division Rank 2
Conference Rank 10
Overall Rank 20
Postseason Yes

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Buccaneers Starting Lineup
Offense
WR Vincent Jackson
WR Mike Evans
WR Louis Murphy
TE Austin Serferian-Jenkins
LT Donovan Smith
LG Logan Mankins
C Evan Dietrich-Smith
RG Garrett Gilkey
RT Patrick Omameh
QB Jameis Winston
HB Doug Martin
FB Jorvorskie Lane
   
Defense
DE Jacquies Smith
DT Gerald McCoy
DT Clinton McDonald
DE George Johnson
LB Danny Lansanah
LB Bruce Carter
LB Lavonte David
CB Alterraun Verner
S Major Wright
S Brad McDougald
CB Johnathan Banks
N5 D. J. Swearinger
   
Special
Kicker Conner Barth
Punter Michael Koenen
KR Kaelin Clay
PR Kaelin Clay
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Head Coach Lovie Smith
Off. Coordinator Dirk Koetter
Def. Coordinator Leslie Frazier
2014 W-L-T 2-14-0
Pts 17.3
Opp 25.6
   
Ratings  
PiRate 92.1
Mean 93.4
Bias 92.0
Average 92.5
   
Grades  
Running D
Passing C+
Vs. Run C
Vs. Pass C
Special Teams C
Coaching + Intangibles C+
   
Predicted W-L 6-10-0
Division Rank 4
Conference Rank 16
Overall Rank 30
Postseason No

August 31, 2013

2013 NFC South Division Preview

2013 N F C South Preview

The South Division of the NFC was a one-team race last year with the Atlanta Falcons quickly separating from the pack and cruising to a six-game defeat of the other three teams.  It was expected after the New Orleans Saints entered the season with coaching suspensions.  By the time the Saints started to turn things around, it was too late.

 

2013 should be an interesting season.  The Falcons once again look like the class of the division, but of course with scheduling, they will play two other first place teams from last year, while New Orleans and Carolina face easier competition in those two games.  Tampa Bay also faces an easier schedule, but we do not believe the Buccaneers can rock the boat in the South this year.

 

Next to Green Bay, Atlanta has the best passing attack in the NFC.  Matt Ryan is quickly becoming one of the elite passers in the league, while Julio Jones, Roddy White, and the ageless wonder, tight end Tony Gonzalez, form a top-notch receiving corps.  If Steven Jackson has one more good year in his legs, the Falcons just may be ready to advance that final step to the Super Bowl.

 

New Orleans had the best offense in the NFC last year, by 25 points over the second best team.  On the other hand, the Saints gave up the most points in the NFC by 10 points.  Thus, the Saints finished 7-9.  Can new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan work magic on a defense that played like 11 matadors last year?  On top of the improvement needed, the Saints will switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4 alignment.  And, they will not get much immediate help from their draft class.

 

Carolina has enough talent now to contend for a playoff berth.  Cam Newton may not complete 60% of his passes, but he will average more per completion than average.  He will also be hard on enemy pass rushers with his ability to make them miss.  A nice defensive rush that might result in a sack on most QBs, could very well result in a 10 to 20 yard gain on a scramble.

 

The Panthers will have to get by without Jonathan Stewart for six games after he was placed on the PUP list.  DeAngelo Williams is starting to show his age, so the Panthers may struggle unless rookie Kenjon Barner can take up the slack.  The receiving corps is average at best, and the offensive line is better blocking for the run than the pass.

 

The Panthers should be improved this year because their defense looks much better, especially in the line and at linebacker.  Look for rookie tackle Star Lotulelei to be a key right away.  He won’t make 10 tackles a game, but he will command double blocks on several plays, and that will allow the linebackers to look much better.

 

Tampa Bay overachieved last year, and they still finished below .500.  The Buccaneers are average or below average at every unit on offense and defense.  Quarterback Josh Freeman won’t appear on the all-pro list, and he won’t get a lot of hype, but he can pass for 300 yards on many Sundays.  However, he tends to force passes and threw too many interceptions last year.  He will continue to stretch defenses with longer passes, because that will open up running lanes for second year star back Doug Martin, one of the biggest surprises in the league last year.  Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams make up a talented one-two punch at wideout, but the Bucs need more skill players to emerge.  The defense does not have enough talent to compete for a playoff spot this year.

 

We have added a new wrinkle to our coverage this year.  In the past, friends of ours have asked us if we knew how to recreate the exact colors of their favorite team so that they could print those colors on their computer.  We have found this information from multiple sites in the last couple of months, and we are going to show you the RGB numbers so you can replicate those colors.  These can be used in graphics programs, but it can easily be used in MS-Word and MS-Excel.

 

Here are the official colors for the NFC South.

West

Color

Red

Green

Blue

Atlanta Falcons

Black

17

28

36

 

Red

198

12

48

 

White

255

255

255

Carolina Panthers

Panther Blue

0

136

206

 

Black

17

28

36

 

Metallic Silver

133

136

139

New Orleans Saints

Old Gold

150

130

82

 

Black

17

28

36

 

White

255

255

255

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Red

167

25

48

 

Pewter

102

92

79

 

Black

17

28

36

 

 

2012 Final Standings & PiRate Ratings

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Atlanta Falcons

104.7

105.6

106.3

13-3-0

419

299

New Orleans Saints

100.7

100.2

99.9

7-9-0

461

454

Carolina Panthers

99.7

100.0

101.4

7-9-0

357

363

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

98.6

97.6

96.8

7-9-0

389

394

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013 Preseason PiRate Ratings

South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Atlanta Falcons

103.6

106.6

103.1

New Orleans Saints

101.7

102.0

101.6

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

98.5

98.1

98.7

Carolina Panthers

98.4

97.7

98.1

 

PiRate Previews

Team

Atlanta Falcons

               
Head Coach

Mike Smith

O-Coord.

Dirk Koetter

D-Coord.

Mike Nolan

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected Starting Lineup

Position

Player

 

Offense

Quarterback

Matt Ryan

Running Back

Steven Jackson

Fullback

Bradie Ewing

Wide Receiver

Julio Jones

Wide Receiver

Roddy White

Tight End

Tony Gonzalez

Left Tackle

Sam Baker

Left Guard

Justin Blalock

Center

Peter Konz

Right Guard

Garrett Reynolds

Right Tackle

Lamar Holmes

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Defense

Left End

Kroy Biermann

Left Tackle

Jonathan Babineaux

Right Tackle

Corey Peters

Right End

Osi Umenyiora

Sam LB

Stephen Nicholas

Mike LB

Akeem Dent

Will LB

Sean Weatherspoon

Left CB

Asante Samuel

Right CB

Desmond Trufant

Strong Safety

William Moore

Free Safety

Thomas Decoud

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Special Teams

Kicker

Matt Bryant

Punter

Matt Bosher

K-Return

Jacquizz Rodgers

P-Return

Dominique Franks

 

 

Predictions

 

Record

12-4

Division

1st

 

Team

Carolina Panthers

               
Head Coach

Ron Rivera

O-Coord.

Mike Shula

D-Coord.

Sean McDermott

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected Starting Lineup

Position

Player

 

Offense

Quarterback

Cam Newton

Running Back

DeAngelo Williams

Fullback

Mike Tolbert

Wide Receiver

Steve Smith

Wide Receiver

Brandon LaFell

Tight End

Greg Olsen

Left Tackle

Jordan Gross

Left Guard

Amini Silatolu

Center

Ryan Kalil

Right Guard

Garry Williams

Right Tackle

Byron Bell

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Defense

Left End

Charles Johnson

Left Tackle

Dwan Edwards

Nose Tackle

Star Lotulelei

Right End

Greg Hardy

Sam LB

Thomas Davis

Mike LB

Luke Kuechly

Will LB

Jon Beason

Left CB

Drayton Florence

Right CB

Captain Munnerlyn

Strong Safety

Mike Mitchell

Free Safety

Charles Godfrey

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Special Teams

Kicker

Graham Gano

Punter

Brad Nortman

K-Return

Ted Ginn

P-Return

Ted Ginn

 

 

Predictions

 

Record

8-8

Division

3rd

Team

New Orleans Saints

               
Head Coach

Sean Payton

O-Coord.

Pete Carmichael

D-Coord.

Rob Ryan

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected Starting Lineup

Position

Player

 

Offense

Quarterback

Drew Brees

Running Back

Pierre Thomas

Fullback

Jed Collins

Wide Receiver

Lance Moore

Wide Receiver

Marques Colston

Tight End

Jimmy Graham

Left Tackle

Charles Brown

Left Guard

Ben Grubbs

Center

Brian De La Puente

Right Guard

Jahri Evans

Right Tackle

Zach Strief

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Defense

Left End

Akiem Hicks

Nose Tackle

Brodrick Bunkley

Right End

Cameron Jordan

Left OLB

Junior Galette

Left ILB

Jonathan Vilma

Right ILB

Curtis Lofton

Right OLB

Martez Wilson

Left CB

Jabari Greer

Right CB

Keenan Lewis

Strong Safety

Roman Harper

Free Safety

Malcolm Jenkins

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Special Teams

Kicker

Garrett Hartley

Punter

Thomas Morstead

K-Return

Darren Sproles

P-Return

Darren Sproles

 

 

Predictions

 

Record

9-7

Division

2nd

Team

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

               
Head Coach

Greg Schiano

O-Coord.

Mike Sullivan

D-Coord.

Bill Sheridan

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected Starting Lineup

Position

Player

 

Offense

Quarterback

Josh Freeman

Running Back

Doug Martin

Fullback

Erik Lorig

Wide Receiver

Vincent Jackson

Wide Receiver

Mike Williams

Tight End

Luke Stocker

Left Tackle

Donald Penn

Left Guard

Carl Nicks

Center

Jeremy Zuttah

Right Guard

Davin Joseph

Right Tackle

Dernar Dotson

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Defense

Left End

Da’Quan Bowers

Left Tackle

Gerald McCoy

Right Tackle

Gary Gibson

Right End

Adrian Clayborn

Sam LB

Dekoda Watson

Mike LB

Mason Foster

Will LB

Lavonte David

Left CB

Darrelle Revis

Right CB

Leonard Johnson

Strong Safety

Mark Barron

Free Safety

Dashon Goldson

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Special Teams

Kicker

Lawrence Tynes

Punter

Michael Koenen

K-Return

Mike James

P-Return

Eric Page

 

 

Predictions

 

Record

6-10

Division

4th

 

January 17, 2013

PiRate Ratings NFL Conference Championship Game Previews–January 20, 2013

The PiRate Simulator gave back some booty to the mean Vegas Buccaneers last week, going 2-3 in the Divisional Round selections.  This brings the playoff selections results to 10-4.  We cannot lose now, because there are only three games left in which to make selections, and we will not go 0-6.  So, we are playing with house booty.

 

Sunday, January 20, 2013

 

San Francisco 49ers (12-4-1) at Atlanta Falcons (14-3-0)

 

Time: 3:00 PM EST

 

TV: Fox

 

Georgia Dome Forecast: Indoors

 

 

 

PiRate: San Francisco by 1.1

 

PiRate Mean: San Francisco by 0.2

 

PiRate Bias: San Francisco by 0.5

 

PiRate Vintage: Atlanta by 2.0

 

 

 

Vegas Line: San Francisco by 4

 

Totals: 49

 

Money Line:  San Francisco -XXX  Atlanta +XXX

 

 

 

100 Computer Simulations: Atlanta 52 San Francisco 48

 

Average Score: Atlanta 24.6  San Francisco 24.4

 

Standard Deviation: 7.4

 

Outlier Home: Atlanta 30  San Francisco 10

 

Outlier Visitor: San Francisco 19  Atlanta 7

 

Outlier High: 62 Points

 

Outlier Low:  24 Points

 

 

 

PiRate Captain Says: The computer calls this game a statistical dead heat.  We believe possibly that the 49ers are going to find the Falcon defense prepared and ready to slow down Colin Kaepernick and the college-style offense.  Until one of these zone-read option QB’s actually wins a Super Bowl, we are going with the belief that a standard drop-back passer and a prepared defense will win every time when there are just four teams left in the playoffs.

 

 

 

It is just gravy that we get the Falcons as home ‘dogs.  They have the added incentive of being the overlooked team of the four that are left, and we believe Matt Ryan and company are primed to have one of those very memorable games.

 

Baltimore Ravens (12-6-0) at New England Patriots (13-4-0)

Time: 6:30 PM EST

TV: CBS

Gillette Stadium Forecast: Clear with temperatures falling from the low 30’s to the low 20’s during the game

 

PiRate: New England by 10.8

PiRate Mean: New England by 9.2

PiRate Bias: New England by 7.9

PiRate Vintage: New England by 6.7

 

Vegas Line: New England by 9

Totals: 51 ½

Money Line:  New England –XXX  Baltimore +XXX

 

100 Computer Simulations: New England 62  Baltimore 38

Average Score: New England 29.4  Baltimore 23.6

Standard Deviation: 8.4

Outlier Home: New England 48  Baltimore 17

Outlier Visitor: Baltimore 41  New England 20

Outlier High: 79 points

Outlier Low: 44 points

 

PiRate Captain Says: Asking New England to win by double digits in a grudge game rematch of last year’s AFC Championship is asking too much in our opinion. The Patriots should win the game, but we believe that 9 times out of 10, this game would have an outcome with the margin under 7 points, no matter which team won.  We’ll go with those odds and take the Underdog and the points.

 

The weather should be very cold, but dry and not too windy.  Tom Brady and Joe Flacco should provide three hours of quality entertainment and bring this game down to yet another last possession outcome.  Remember in the past though that almost every rematch of a conference championship game has been won by the team that won the year before. 

 

Green Bay won the Ice Bowl rematch with Dallas in 1967 after winning a close one in 1966.  Pittsburgh won the rematch with Houston in 1978 and 1979.  This game ranks up there with those games in historical importance.  It also doesn’t hurt that Green Bay and Pittsburgh were the home teams for those games, and New England is for this one.

 

 

Selections

1. Baltimore +9 ½ vs. New England

2. Atlanta +4 vs. San Francisco

 

3. 10-point Teaser

Baltimore +19 ½ vs. New England

Atlanta +14 vs. San Francisco

Baltimore and New England OVER 41 ½

 

December 21, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 16–December 23-27, 2010

Merry Christmas to all of our PiRate readers.  We wanted to send all of you a gift this year, but we didn’t have enough boxes here on the PiRate Ship.

So, instead, we are going to issue a communal gift today.

2010 has been a very successful season for our picks, and our subscribers have pocketed a lot of PiRate booty thanks to a 69% record against the spread.

We realize that several readers to this blog are not subscribers and thus can only see our picks from the previous week after the fact.

For instance, we made just one selection last week.  It was a 3-game, 10-point teaser parlay, and it won.  We issued to our subscribers last week a bowl pick.  We took the three favorites (BYU, Northern Illinois, and Troy) and moved the spread by 10 points in our favor, making BYU a 2-point favorite, NIU a 9-point ‘dog, and Troy a 7-point ‘dog.  All three won outright and covered, making this a winning selection.

We are only playing one 13-point teaser this week as our official pick, but we had two good picks to select from.  We always make an odd number of selections, because if we play an even amount and win half, it is a losing proposition.

We are issuing our top choice to our subscribers, and they will receive this pick Thursday afternoon.  Today, we would like to issue our second choice pick to all of you as our gift.  We hope it is a winning one.  Additionally, we will show you a little behind our strategy.

Here it is:

We are going with a 4-game, 13-point teaser.  For those not familiar with this type of selection, you get to move the pointspreads 13 points in either direction, but you must win four different games.  If all four games win, you win the parlay.  If anything else happens, including three wins and a push, you lose.

There are two key statistics to look at when playing a 13-point teaser.  Number one, you need to let the numbers play in your favor by picking a game that might give you an extra point or two.  Let’s say a team is a ½-point underdog.  If you like the underdog to cover, then you get them at 13 ½ points.  That is not in your favor.  Winning teams often win games by 14 points.  

Now, let’s take another team that is a 4 ½-point underdog.  Adding 13 points in their favor makes them a 17 ½-point underdog.  Many games are decided by 17 points, while many fewer are decided by 18.

Another key point is to take a favorite that you feel has a great chance to win and move the spread to make them an underdog.  A 5 ½-point favorite becomes a 7 ½-point underdog.

Another great way to play teasers is to look at totals.  If the total for a game is 36 points, moving it 13 points lower and playing the OVER means you win if the final score is 14-10.

The other key statistic is to look for games where your own personal beliefs indicate you are getting extra points in the selection.  Let’s say that you believe one team is six points better than their opponent, and they are a 4 ½-point favorite.  Giving the 4 ½ points in a straight selection is much too close to your six points difference.  One simple botched field goal or one long field goal made by the weaker team would kill your selection.  However, if you move the spread by 13 points in your favor, this part of the parlay now makes your favorite an 8 ½-point underdog.  The team you think can win by six can now lose by more than a touchdown and still win this part of the parlay.

If you think two teams can play 10 times, and all 10 games will be within a narrow point range, you can even play both sides of a game.  For instance if Team A is favored by two points over Team B, and you believe that no matter which team wins, it will be by less than 10 points, you can take Team A at +11 and Team B at +15.

Here is our Christmas gift to you.

1. 13-point teaser parlay

Pittsburgh – ½ vs. Carolina

Jacksonville +6 vs. Washington

Baltimore +9 ½ vs. Cleveland

Oakland +13 vs. Indianapolis

 

Here is our reasoning for these four games.  Pittsburgh is in a must-win situation at home, and the Steelers will be mad after losing to the Jets Sunday.  Carolina won at home on Sunday and must turn around and play on Thursday night in possible snowy conditions with temperatures in the upper 20’s.  This is a perfect setup for the Steelers.  Carolina has nothing to play for in this game.  This is basically a pick when you lower the spread to a half point, as you win even if the Steelers win by one.

Jacksonville has everything to play for, while the Redskins have nothing.  Washington’s big game was last Sunday against their rival.  They will not have much left in the tank this week.  Coach Mike Shanahan has lost the respect of a handful of players, and they are not going to go all out.  The Jags lost a tough game to Indianapolis, and they must now win out to have a legitimate shot at the AFC South title.  You get six points as a bonus, but we see the Jags winning this one outright.

Baltimore is back in the race for the NFC North title.  The Steelers still hold the tiebreaker edge, but Pittsburgh has to play at Cleveland in week 17.  The Browns will be up for their rival, which means they may not be so up this week, especially after they just lost to their other big rival last week.  We believe Baltimore should win this outright, and we get 9 ½ points by taking the Ravens in this part of the parlay.  We have a slight problem with 9 ½, but we do not think Cleveland can win this by a touchdown if they play 10 times.

We love the Raiders in this West Coast game.  Indianapolis will not have the services of Austin Collie, and the Raiders will hold Peyton Manning to two TD passes.  Indy will have a hard time stopping the Raiders’ offense, and we see a high-scoring game.  Remember, Oakland is still in the AFC West race, and they finish with the Chiefs in Kansas City.  They already hold the tiebreaker over San Diego, and a win in week 17 would give them the tiebreaker over the Chiefs.  They have to win in week 16 for week 17 to matter, and then they have to hope the Chargers lose once.  We believe Oakland will win this game, but even if they lose, it should not be by more than three to seven points.

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
                     
NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Philadelphia 10 4 0 412 339 108.2 105.9 106.6
NY Giants 9 5 0 360 288 105.9 104.3 103.5
Dallas 5 9 0 354 396 98.7 99.2 99.8
Washington 5 9 0 268 343 93.9 96.9 95.4
Bitmap

 
                   
NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Green Bay 8 6 0 333 220 108.9 107.2 105.2
Chicago 10 4 0 293 242 103.8 104.4 104.9
Detroit 4 10 0 308 329 97.3 99.7 97.8
Minnesota 5 9 0 244 314 95.1 95.9 94.2
                     
NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Atlanta 12 2 0 369 261 107.7 106.1 107.2
New Orleans 10 4 0 354 270 105.9 103.8 105.2
Tampa Bay 8 6 0 280 290 98.6 98.9 100.3
Carolina 2 12 0 183 350 90.5 88.7 90.1
                     
NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
San Francisco 5 9 0 250 314 96.6 95.3 98.0
St. Louis 6 8 0 258 295 95.2 94.9 96.4
Seattle 6 8 0 279 363 93.4 93.1 95.1
Arizona 4 10 0 255 370 88.2 90.6 88.2
                     
AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
New England 12 2 0 446 303 112.8 110.6 110.9
NY Jets 10 4 0 295 259 102.8 103.3 103.8
Miami 7 7 0 239 261 100.2 100.0 99.7
Buffalo 4 10 0 273 353 98.3 98.0 97.7
                     
AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Baltimore 10 4 0 324 253 106.7 105.4 106.2
Pittsburgh 10 4 0 307 220 105.2 105.4 106.5
Cleveland 5 9 0 252 271 99.6 98.3 95.0
Cincinnati 3 11 0 281 362 95.3 95.9 94.3
                     
AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Indianapolis 8 6 0 381 342 101.2 102.2 101.5
Jacksonville 8 6 0 319 365 99.1 99.0 101.0
Houston 5 9 0 333 386 98.7 98.0 97.2
Tennessee 6 8 0 322 282 95.4 100.3 98.2
                     
AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
San Diego 8 6 0 388 260 106.9 106.3 105.9
Oakland 7 7 0 353 330 99.9 99.7 101.3
Kansas City 9 5 0 322 281 99.4 100.7 99.6
Denver 3 11 0 292 415 91.0 91.8 93.2

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site        
       
Week 15: December 16-20, 2010
Vegas Line as of 12:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
PITTSBURGH Carolina 18.7 20.7 20.4 13.5 37
Dallas ARIZONA 7.5 5.6 8.6 6.5 45
MIAMI Detroit 4.9 2.3 3.9 3.5 41.5
PHILADELPHIA Minnesota 16.1 13 15.4 NL NL
JACKSONVILLE Washington 8.2 5.1 8.6 7 45.5
ST. LOUIS San Francisco 1.6 2.6 1.4 2.5 39.5
TAMPA BAY Seattle 7.2 7.8 7.2 6 44
New England BUFFALO 12.5 10.6 13.2 7.5 44
CHICAGO New York Jets 4 4.1 4.1 2.5 36
Baltimore CLEVELAND 4.1 4.1 8.2 3.5 38.5
KANSAS CITY Tennessee 8 4.4 5.4 5 42
OAKLAND Indianapolis 1.7 0.5 2.8 -3 47
Houston DENVER 4.7 3.2 1 3 48.5
GREEN BAY
New York Giants 6 5.9 4.7 NL NL
San Diego CINCINNATI 8.6 7.4 8.6 7.5 44
ATLANTA New Orleans 5.8 6.3 6 2.5 48.5

 

PiRate Playoff Projection

N F C

1. Atlanta 13-3

2. Philadelphia 12-4

3. Chicago 11-5

4. San Francisco 7-9

5. New Orleans 12-4

6. Green Bay 10-6

 

A F C

1. New England 14-2

2. Baltimore 12-4

3. San Diego 10-6

4. Jacksonville 10-6

5. New York Jets 11-5

6. Pittsburgh 11-5

 

Wildcard Playoff Round

Chicago over Green Bay

New Orleans over San Francisco

 

Pittsburgh over San Diego

New York Jets over Jacksonville

 

Divisional Playoff Round

Philadelphia over Chicago

Atlanta over New Orleans

 

New England over Pittsburgh

Baltimore over New York Jets

 

Conference Championships

Philadelphia over Atlanta

 

New England over Baltimore

 

Super Bowl

New England over Philadelphia

PiRate QB Passer Rating 


Player Team G AYPA Int % PiRate
Tom Brady NE 14 6.8 0.89 114.2
Michael Vick PHI 11 6.6 1.52 107.6
Matt Cassel KC 13 5.8 1.31 105.0
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 10 6 1.49 104.5
Josh Freeman TB 14 5.7 1.42 103.4
Phillip Rivers SD 14 7 2.37 102.3
Vince Young TEN 9 6.2 1.92 101.8
Joe Flacco BAL 14 5.7 1.77 100.3
Kyle Orton DEN 13 5.6 1.81 99.5
Colt McCoy CLE 6 5.7 1.97 98.6
Matt Ryan ATL 14 5.2 1.76 97.6
Matt Schaub HOU 14 5.6 2.12 96.7
Aaron Rodgers GB 13 6.1 2.44 96.7
Peyton Manning IND 14 5.6 2.46 93.7
Kevin Kolb PHI 6 4.9 2.61 88.4
Mark Sanchez NYJ 14 4.6 2.55 87.3
Tony Romo DAL 6 5.7 3.29 87.0
Jason Campbell OAK 11 5.1 3.05 85.7
Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 12 4.9 2.97 85.3
Jon Kitna DAL 9 5.4 3.36 84.7
Drew Brees NO 14 5.2 3.33 83.8
Sam Bradford STL 14 4.1 2.71 83.1
Kerry Collins TEN 8 4.5 2.97 83.1
Donovan McNabb WAS 13 4.8 3.18 82.9
Shaun Hill DET 9 4.4 3.13 81.1
Jay Cutler CHI 13 4.9 3.53 80.4
Derek Anderson ARI 12 4.1 3.06 80.0
Chad Henne MIA 13 4.7 3.48 79.7
Alex Smith SF 9 4.4 3.36 79.1
Carson Palmer CIN 14 4.4 3.46 78.2
Jimmie Clausen CAR 11 3.1 2.88 76.0
Eli Manning NYG 14 5 4.19 75.1
David Garrard JAX 13 4.6 3.96 74.9
Matt Hasselbeck SEA 13 4.3 3.86 74.1
Bruce Gradkowski OAK 6 4 4.43 67.4
Jake Delhomme CLE 5 3.3 4.70 61.1
Brett Favre MIN 13 4 5.31 59.7
Matt Moore CAR 6 2 6.99 33.7
           
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%)) + 105) *0.8
AYPA = Air Yards Per Pass Attempt or Yards Per Attempt – Yards After Catch
AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com

December 14, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 15–December 16-20, 2010

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
                     
NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
NY Giants 9 4 0 329 250 107.1 105.4 105.6
Philadelphia  9 4 0 374 308 107.0 105.4 105.6
Dallas  4 9 0 321 366 99.0 99.8 99.9
Washington  5 8 0 238 310 93.6 95.8 92.6
 NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Green Bay 8 5 0 306 189 108.6 106.7 105.0
Chicago 9 4 0 253 228 101.6 101.7 103.2
Minnesota 5 8 0 230 274 97.3 98.4 97.5
Detroit 3 10 0 285 309 96.5 98.1 94.8
                     
NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Atlanta 11 2 0 335 243 106.9 106.1 107.5
New Orleans 10 3 0 330 240 106.3 105.0 106.6
Tampa Bay 8 5 0 260 267 99.4 99.9 101.2
Carolina 1 12 0 164 338 90.3 88.9 89.4
                     
NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
San Francisco 5 8 0 243 280 98.2 97.1 99.8
St. Louis 6 7 0 245 268 96.5 95.7 98.0
Seattle 6 7 0 261 329 94.2 93.7 96.5
Arizona 4 9 0 243 351 88.4 91.3 92.5
                     
AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
New England 11 2 0 415 276 113.1 111.8 111.1
NY Jets 9 4 0 273 242 101.6 101.1 102.5
Miami 7 6 0 225 244 101.2 101.4 101.9
Buffalo 3 10 0 256 339 97.3 97.1 96.0
                     
AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Pittsburgh 10 3 0 290 198 106.4 106.2 107.4
Baltimore 9 4 0 294 229 106.3 104.8 105.4
Cleveland 5 8 0 235 252 99.9 99.1 96.9
Cincinnati 2 11 0 262 345 95.0 95.1 93.9
                     
AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Indianapolis 7 6 0 347 318 100.7 101.3 101.7
Houston 5 8 0 316 355 100.2 100.0 99.0
Jacksonville 8 5 0 295 331 99.6 99.8 101.8
Tennessee 5 8 0 291 265 93.9 97.8 93.7
                     
AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
San Diego 7 6 0 354 253 105.3 105.9 104.2
Oakland 6 7 0 314 307 99.2 99.1 99.8
Kansas City 8 5 0 295 268 98.1 98.6 99.5
Denver 3 10 0 269 376 91.7 92.3 89.7

 

 

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads  
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
               
Week 15: December 16-20, 2010            
Vegas Line as of 3:00 PM EDT Tuesday            
               
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals  
SAN DIEGO San Francisco 11.1 12.8 8.4 8 1/2 44 1/2  
ST. LOUIS Kansas City 1.4 0.1 2.5 NL NL  
Houston TENNESSEE 3.3 -0.8 2.3 -1 1/2 47     
INDIANAPOLIS Jacksonville 4.1 4.5 2.9 5    48 1/2  
CAROLINA Arizona 4.9 0.6 -0.1 2 1/2 37 1/2  
Cleveland CINCINNATI 1.9 1.0 3.0 -2    40     
MIAMI Buffalo 5.9 6.3 7.9 5 1/2 41     
NEW YORK GIANTS Philadelphia 3.1 3.0 3.0 2 1/2 46     
DALLAS Washington 8.4 7.0 10.3 6    45     
TAMPA BAY Detroit 4.9 3.8 8.4 6    43     
BALTIMORE New Orleans 3.0 2.8 1.8 2    43 1/2  
Atlanta SEATTLE 8.7 8.4 7.0 6    45     
PITTSBURGH New York Jets 8.8 9.1 8.9 6    35 1/2  
OAKLAND   Denver 10.5 9.8 13.1 6 1/2 44     
NEW ENGLAND Green Bay 7.5 8.1 9.1 NL NL  
Chicago MINNESOTA 1.3 0.3 2.7 NL NL  
               
PiRate Passer # 

Player

Team G AYPA Int% PiRate #    
Tom Brady NE 13 6.9 0.94 114.4    
Michael Vick PHI 10 6.8 1.36 110.1    
Matt Cassel KC 12 5.9 1.13 107.1    
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 9 6.2 1.72 103.6    
Josh Freeman TB 13 5.6 1.54 101.8    
Vince Young TEN 9 6.2 1.92 101.8    
Phillip Rivers SD 13 6.8 2.51 100.0    
Joe Flacco BAL 13 5.7 1.86 99.6    
Kyle Orton DEN 13 5.6 1.81 99.5    
Matt Ryan ATL 13 5.3 1.68 98.9    
Matt Schaub HOU 13 5.8 2.15 97.6    
Aaron Rodgers GB 13 6.1 2.44 96.7    
Troy Smith SF 5 5.6 2.38 94.4    
Colt McCoy CLE 5 5.4 2.36 93.5    
Peyton Manning IND 13 5.6 2.63 92.2    
Jason Campbell OAK 10 5 2.54 89.6    
Kevin Kolb PHI 6 4.9 2.61 88.4    
Tony Romo DAL 6 5.7 3.29 87.0    
Mark Sanchez NYJ 13 4.6 2.72 85.8    
Sam Bradford STL 13 4.3 2.53 85.8    
Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 11 4.8 2.91 85.3    
Drew Brees NO 13 5.3 3.43 83.5    
Kerry Collins TEN 7 4.3 2.81 83.4    
Donovan McNabb WAS 13 4.8 3.18 82.9    
Shaun Hill DET 9 4.4 3.13 81.1    
Jay Cutler CHI 12 4.9 3.49 80.7    
Alex Smith SF 8 4.6 3.35 80.3    
Derek Anderson ARI 12 4.1 3.06 80.0    
Jon Kitna DAL 8 5.1 3.83 78.8    
Matt Hasselbeck SEA 12 4.6 3.55 78.6    
Chad Henne MIA 12 4.7 3.63 78.4    
Carson Palmer CIN 13 4.2 3.62 75.6    
Eli Manning NYG 13 4.9 4.34 73.3    
David Garrard JAX 12 4.4 4.14 72.2    
Jimmie Clausen CAR 10 2.8 3.13 72.2    
Bruce Gradkowski OAK 6 4 4.43 67.4    
Brett Favre MIN 12 4.1 5.13 61.8    
Jake Delhomme CLE 5 3.3 4.70 61.1    
Matt Moore CAR 6 2 6.99 33.7    
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8    
   
   
                           

AYPA = Air Yards Per Pass Attempt (yards per attempt minus yards after catch)

AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com

 

NFL Playoff Projections

 

N F C

1. New Orleans

2. Philadelphia

3. Chicago

4. Seattle

5. Atlanta

6. New York Giants

 

A F C

1. New England

2. Pittsburgh

3. Jacksonville

4. San Diego

5. Baltimore

6. New York Jets

 

Wildcard Round

Chicago over New York Giants

Atlanta over Seattle

 

Jacksonville over New York Jets

San Diego over Baltimore

 

Divisional Round

New Orleans over Atlanta

Philadelphia over Chicago

 

New England over San Diego

Pittsburgh over Jacksonville

 

Conference Championships

New Orleans over Philadelphia

 

New England over Pittsburgh

 

Super Bowl

New Orleans over New England

November 30, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 13–December 2-6, 2010

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
                       
NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
Philadelphia 7 4 0 310 257 106.6 105.7 105.8 2
NY Giants 7 4 0 277 240 103.3 102.5 103.3 2
Dallas 3 8 0 256 301 96.8 98.9 99.5 2
Washington
5 6 0 215 262 96.3 97.1 96.1 3
                       
NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA 
Green Bay 7 4 0 269 166 109.9 109.9 106.8 3
Chicago 8 3 0 222 172 103.3 103.4 104.7 4
Minnesota 4 7 0 189 239 97.1 99.0 99.6 3
Detroit 2 9 0 258 282 95.0 96.7 93.9 4
                       
NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
Atlanta 9 2 0 276 209 106.3 105.3 106.9 4
New Orleans 8 3 0 265 197 105.8 104.5 106.6 2
Tampa Bay 7 4 0 219 223 99.1 99.0 100.6 2
Carolina 1 10 0 140 276 92.7 90.0 90.3 2
                       
NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
San Francisco 4 7 0 187 225 97.2 95.4 98.3 4
St. Louis 5 6 0 213 231 95.2 94.5 97.1 4
Seattle 5 6 0 209 275 93.9 92.5 95.3 3
Arizona 3 8 0 194 319 88.0 88.3 89.7 4
                       
AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
New England 9 2 0 334 266 107.8 107.0 107.5 3
NY Jets 9 2 0 264 187 106.3 105.5 106.3 2
Miami 6 5 0 205 225 102.3 101.3 102.3 3
Buffalo 2 9 0 229 295 97.7 97.1 97.0 2
                       
AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
Baltimore 8 3 0 250 188 107.4 105.9 106.1 4
Pittsburgh 8 3 0 254 181 105.0 105.7 104.9 2
Cleveland 4 7 0 216 229 98.6 99.5 98.2 4
Cincinnati 2 9 0 225 288 95.0 95.5 91.3 3
                       
AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
Indianapolis 6 5 0 282 252 102.9 102.9 102.2 4
Houston 5 6 0 264 287 100.6 100.3 99.4 2
Tennessee 5 6 0 257 218 96.7 102.1 96.5 4
Jacksonville 6 5 0 240 294 96.6 96.5 98.4 3
                       
AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
San Diego 6 5 0 310 225 106.9 106.2 104.2 4
Kansas City 7 4 0 285 231 100.2 100.2 101.1 4
Oakland 5 6 0 255 256 96.3 96.4 97.7 2
Denver 3 8 0 250 323 93.6 95.2 92.2 2

 

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site        
             
Week 13: December 2-6, 2010          
Vegas Line as of 5:00 PM EDT Tuesday          
             
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
PHILADELPHIA Houston 8.0 7.4 8.4 8 1/2 51 1/2
MINNESOTA Buffalo 2.4 4.9 5.6 6    44 1/2
MIAMI Cleveland 6.7 4.8 7.1 4 1/2 42 1/2
TENNESSEE Jacksonville 4.1 9.6 2.1 NL NL
KANSAS CITY Denver 10.6 9.0 12.9 8 1/2 45 1/2
NEW YORK GIANTS Washington 9.0 7.4 9.2 7    43   
Chicago DETROIT 4.3 2.7 6.8 3 1/2 44 1/2
GREEN BAY San Francisco 15.7 17.5 11.5 9 1/2 42   
New Orleans CINCINNATI 7.8 6.0 12.3 6 1/2 46 1/2
Atlanta TAMPA BAY 5.2 4.3 4.3 3    44 1/2
SAN DIEGO Oakland 14.6 13.8 10.5 12 1/2 45 1/2
SEATTLE Carolina 4.2 5.5 8.0 6    39 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS Dallas 10.1 8.0 6.7 5 1/2 47 1/2
St. Louis  

ARIZONA
3.2 2.2 3.4 3    43   
BALTIMORE Pittsburgh 6.4 4.2 5.2 3    40   
NEW ENGLAND New York Jets 4.5 4.5 4.2 3 1/2 46   

 

PiRate Passer Rating
Player Team AYPA Int %  #
Michael Vick Phi 6.8 0.43 118.3
Tom Brady NE 6.5 1.12 110.5
Kyle Orton Den 6.3 1.40 107.0
Matt Cassel KC 6.0 1.24 106.7
Matt Ryan Atl 5.6 1.23 104.5
Ben Roethlisberger Pit 6.4 1.82 103.8
Phillip Rivers SD 7.0 2.39 102.1
Josh Freeman TB 5.6 1.53 101.9
Vince Young Ten 6.2 1.92 101.8
Matt Shaub Hou 5.8 1.91 99.7
Aaron Rodgers GB 6.2 2.44 97.3
Seneca Wallace Cle 5.4 2.00 96.6
Joe Flacco Bal 5.7 2.19 96.6
Peyton Manning Ind 5.6 2.26 95.5
Mark Sanchez NYJ 5.2 2.20 93.8
Colt McCoy Cle 5.4 2.36 93.5
Sam Bradford Stl 4.5 2.18 90.0
Matt Hasselebeck Sea 4.9 2.56 88.9
Kevin Kolb Phi 4.9 2.61 88.4
Tony Romo Dal 5.7 3.29 87.0
Drew Brees NO 5.4 3.29 85.3
Chad Henne Mia 5.3 3.27 84.9
Ryan Fitzpatrick Buf 4.8 3.03 84.2
Kerry Collins Ten 4.2 2.80 82.8
Jay Cutler Chi 5.0 3.42 81.9
Donovan McNabb Was 4.8 3.31 81.8
Derek Anderson Ari 4.2 2.93 81.7
Shaun Hill Det 4.4 3.13 81.1
Jason Campbell Oak 4.2 3.16 79.7
Jon Kitna Dal 5.2 4.00 77.9
Carson Palmer Cin 4.3 3.47 77.5
Eli Manning NYG 5.2 4.26 75.7
Jimmy Clausen Car 3.1 3.01 74.9
Alex Smith SF 4.2 3.72 74.8
David Garrard Jax 4.3 4.42 69.2
Bruce Gradkowski Oak 4.0 4.43 67.4
Brett Favre Min 4.2 4.86 64.8
Matt Moore Car 2.0 6.99 33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8
 

AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt.  This statistic removed the receivers’ Yards After Catch.

AYPA can be found at www.advancednflstats.com

Projected NFL Playoff Seedings

NFC

1. Atlanta Falcons

2. Chicago Bears

3. Philadelphia Eagles

4. St. Louis Rams

5. Green Bay Packers

6. New Orleans Saints

AFC

1. New England Patriots

2. Pittsburgh Steelers

3. San Diego Chargers

4. Indianapolis Colts

5. New York Jets

6. Baltimore Ravens

Wildcard Round

New Orleans over Philadelphia

Green Bay over St. Louis

Baltimore over San Diego

New York Jets over Indianapolis

Divisional Round

Atlanta over New Orleans

Chicago over Green Bay

Baltimore over New England

Pittsburgh over New York Jets

Conference Championships

Chicago over Atlanta

Baltimore over Pittsburgh

SUPER BOWL

Chicago over Baltimore

November 23, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 12–November 25-29, 2010

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
(listed by PiRate #)                      
NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
Philadelphia 7 3 0 284 226 106.9 106.2 106.0 2
NY Giants 6 4 0 253 220 104.1 102.5 103.5 2
Washington 5 5 0 202 245 97.3 98.8 99.0 3
Dallas
3 7 0 229 271 96.3 98.8 99.4 2
                       
NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
Green Bay 7 3 0 252 146 110.4 108.5 107.7 3
Chicago 7 3 0 191 146 103.0 102.8 102.7 4
Detroit 2 8 0 234 237 96.7 97.1 95.5 4
Minnesota 3 7 0 172 226 96.1 97.3 94.8 3
                       
NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
New Orleans 7 3 0 235 170 106.3 103.8 105.4 2
Atlanta 8 2 0 256 192 105.8 105.0 106.7 4
Tampa Bay 7 3 0 209 206 98.3 99.6 101.1 2
Carolina 1 9 0 117 252 91.5 89.0 90.4 2
                       
NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
Seattle 5 5 0 185 233 95.4 94.9 96.0 3
St. Louis 4 6 0 177 198 94.5 94.6 95.8 4
San Francisco 3 7 0 160 219 94.2 93.9 95.6 4
Arizona 3 7 0 188 292 91.0 91.3 91.4 4
                       
AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
New England 8 2 0 289 242 106.1 105.6 106.9 3
NY Jets 8 2 0 238 177 106.0 105.0 106.1 2
Miami 5 5 0 172 208 100.7 100.5 100.0 3
Buffalo 2 8 0 213 276 97.2 97.0 96.2 2
                       
AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
Baltimore 7 3 0 233 178 108.2 105.1 106.0 4
Pittsburgh 7 3 0 235 165 105.5 106.2 105.7 2
Cleveland 3 7 0 192 206 99.8 99.9 97.3 4
Cincinnati 2 8 0 215 262 95.3 95.8 93.2 3
                       
AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
Indianapolis 6 4 0 268 216 105.6 104.5 104.8 4
Tennessee 5 5 0 257 198 98.9 103.4 100.2 4
Houston 4 6 0 244 287 98.4 98.4 97.9 2
Jacksonville 6 4 0 220 270 95.8 97.6 100.8 3
                       
AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
San Diego 5 5 0 274 211 104.2 103.5 103.7 4
Kansas City 6 4 0 243 207 98.7 99.8 100.6 4
Oakland 5 5 0 238 223 97.9 98.1 98.9 2
Denver 3 7 0 217 287 94.3 95.4 91.1 2
 
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site        
             
Week 12: November 25-29, 2010          
Vegas Line as of 11:30 PM EDT Tuesday          
             
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
New England DETROIT 5.4 4.5 7.4 6 1/2 51   
New Orleans DALLAS 8.0 3.0 4.0 3 1/2 50   
NEW YORK JETS Cincinnati 12.7 11.2 14.9 9    43   
WASHINGTON Minnesota 4.2 4.5 7.2 1 1/2 43   
Pittsburgh BUFFALO 6.3 7.2 7.5 6 1/2 43   
HOUSTON Tennessee 1.5 -3.0 -0.3 NL NL
NEW YORK GIANTS Jacksonville 10.3 6.9 4.7 7    44 1/2
CLEVELAND Carolina 12.3 14.9 10.9 11    37 1/2
BALTIMORE Tampa Bay 13.9 9.5 8.9 7 1/2 41   
CHICAGO Philadelphia 0.1 0.6 0.7 -3    42 1/2
Green Bay ATLANTA 0.6 -0.5 -3.0 -2    47 1/2
Miami OAKLAND 0.8 0.4 -0.9 NL NL
Kansas City SEATTLE 0.3 1.9 1.6 1 1/2 44 1/2
DENVER Bitmap

St. Louis
1.8 2.8 -2.7 4    44 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS San Diego 5.4 5.0 5.1 3    52   
ARIZONA San Francisco 0.8 1.4 -0.2 Pk 40   

 

Projected NFL Playoffs

NFC

1. Atlanta

2. Green Bay

3. Philadelphia

4. Seattle

5. New Orleans

6. Chicago

AFC

1. Baltimore

2. New York Jets

3. Indianapolis

4. San Diego

5. New England

6. Pittsburgh

 

PiRate Passer Rating
Player Team AYPA Int% PiRate #
Michael Vick PHI 7.2 0.00 124.3
Tom Brady NE 6.1 1.22 107.5
Kyle Orton DEN 6.2 1.55 105.1
Matt Cassel KC 5.9 1.37 104.9
Matt Ryan ATL 5.6 1.33 103.7
Peyton Manning IND 5.9 1.59 103.0
Vince Young TEN 6.2 1.92 101.8
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 6.5 2.14 101.6
Phillip Rivers SD 7.0 2.55 100.8
Josh Freeman TB 5.7 1.72 100.7
Matt Schaub HOU 6.0 2.11 99.0
Joe Flacco BAL 5.7 2.12 97.3
Seneca Wallace CLE 5.4 2.00 96.6
Mark Sanchez NYJ 5.3 2.08 95.3
Colt McCoy CLE 5.4 2.36 93.5
Aaron Rodgers GB 5.8 2.69 92.8
Matt Hasselbeck SEA 4.9 2.23 91.8
Kevin Kolb PHI 4.9 2.61 88.4
Tony Romo DAL 5.7 3.29 87.0
Sam Bradford STL 4.1 2.39 85.9
Drew Brees NO 5.2 3.36 83.6
Chad Henne MIA 5.0 3.27 83.2
Shaun Hill DET 4.5 2.95 83.2
Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 4.8 3.16 83.1
Kerry Collins TEN 4.2 2.80 82.8
Donovan McNabb WAS 4.9 3.35 81.9
Derek Anderson ARI 4.2 2.94 81.6
Carson Palmer CIN 4.7 3.30 81.3
Jason Campbell OAK 4.2 3.16 79.7
Jay Cutler CHI 4.7 3.69 77.8
Alex Smith SF 4.2 3.72 74.8
Jimmy Clausen CAR 2.8 2.90 74.2
Jon Kitna DAL 5.0 4.43 73.0
Eli Manning NYG 4.9 4.55 71.4
Bruce Gradkowski OAK 3.8 3.97 70.4
David Garrard JAX 4.7 4.67 69.2
Brett Favre MIN 4.0 5.20 60.7
Matt Moore CAR 2.0 6.99 33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8
AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt.  It eliminates Yards After Catch and can be found at advancednflstats.com

November 16, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 11–November 18-22, 2010

Hottest Team In The League?

Quick question.  Three NFL teams have not lost a game since week six.  One of those three has outscored its opponents by 26 points per game in that time.  One has given up just one touchdown in their last two games.  The other has averaged over 30 points per game in their three-game winning streak.  Can you name these three teams?

It is no surprise that Green Bay has fared strongly in their current three-game winning streak.  The Packers were supposed to win their division and were supposed to be a top contender for the NFC representative in the Super Bowl  thanks to a powerful offense.  But, the Packers have done it with defense as of late, holding the Jets scoreless and giving up just seven to Dallas.

Atlanta has been a contender in the NFC South ever since Matt Ryan arrived.  The Falcons have scored 92 points in their three-game winning streak.

Ah, but who is this most dominating team of the trio–the one outscoring opponents by 38-12?  It’s the Oakland Raiders who all of a sudden find themselved in first place in the AFC West.  The Raiders visit Pittsburgh, and if they can beat the Steelers, they are officially back.

The Great Switch

Four games into this season, it appeared that offense was on the decline and half the league might give up less than 17 points per game.  As of late, offense has ruled.  Now half of the league could top 350 points.  This is just another part of this fascinating season in which no team appears to be dominant.  Look for 20 teams to challenge for the 12 playoff spots.  It would not surprise us to see three or more spots up for grabs in week 17.

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
(listed alphabetically by division)                      
                       
Bitmap

NFC East
Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
Philadelphia 6 3 0 257 209 106.2 104.8 105.0 2
NY Giants 6 3 0 236 193 104.8 102.8 104.3 2
Washington 4 5 0 183 229 95.6 97.2 93.5 3
Dallas 2 7 0 194 252 93.6 97.5 98.0 2
                       
NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
Green Bay 6 3 0 221 143 108.1 106.5 104.5 3
Chicago 6 3 0 175 146 99.4 99.6 100.8 4
Detroit 2 7 0 215 202 98.9 99.4 97.0 4
Minnesota 3 6 0 169 195 98.4 100.0 97.6 3
                       
NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA 
New Orleans 6 3 0 201 151 105.8 103.1 103.9 2
Atlanta 7 2 0 222 175 104.0 103.6 104.9 4
Tampa Bay 6 3 0 188 206 96.0 96.9 98.9 2
Carolina 1 8 0 104 215 92.9 90.9 90.5 2
                       
NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA 
San Francisco 3 6 0 160 198 96.5 96.4 98.3 4
St. Louis 4 5 0 160 164 96.3 96.3 97.1 4
Seattle 5 4 0 166 199 95.9 95.8 98.1 3
Arizona 3 6 0 175 261 91.8 93.5 92.6 4
                       
AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA 
NY Jets 7 2 0 208 150 107.1 106.0 106.6 2
New England 7 2 0 258 214 106.3 105.0 106.8 3
Miami 5 4 0 172 192 102.8 102.2 102.0 3
Buffalo 1 8 0 164 245 95.0 94.7 92.9 2
                       
AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA 
Baltimore 6 3 0 196 165 106.8 104.8 105.1 4
Pittsburgh 6 3 0 200 162 103.2 104.1 104.2 2
Cleveland 3 6 0 172 182 101.6 100.3 100.7 4
Cincinnati 2 7 0 184 213 98.0 98.8 96.7 3
                       
AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA 
Indianapolis 6 3 0 240 185 105.4 104.1 104.7 4
Tennessee 5 4 0 241 179 102.1 104.2 101.6 4
Houston 4 5 0 217 257 97.3 97.0 97.4 2
Jacksonville 5 4 0 196 250 94.0 95.9 98.3 3
                       
AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA 
San Diego 4 5 0 239 197 102.6 102.2 101.9 4
Oakland 5 4 0 235 188 100.2 100.6 101.7 2
Kansas City 5 4 0 212 194 97.9 98.7 99.1 4
Denver 3 6 0 203 252 95.9 97.3 94.8 2

 

 
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site        
             
Week 10: November 18-22, 2010          
Vegas Line as of 12:30 PM EDT Tuesday          
             
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
MIAMI Chicago 6.4 5.6 4.2 1 1/2 40   
PITTSBURGH Oakland 5.0 5.5 4.5 7 1/2 41   
NEW YORK JETS Houston 11.8 11.0 11.2 6 1/2 45 1/2
Baltimore CAROLINA 11.9 11.9 12.6 10    37 1/2
TENNESSEE Washington 10.5 11.0 12.1 7    44   
Detroit DALLAS 3.3 -0.1 -3.0 -6 1/2 47   
Green Bay MINNESOTA 6.7 3.3 3.9 3    44   
CINCINNATI Buffalo 6.0 7.1 6.8 5 1/2 44   
Cleveland JACKSONVILLE 4.6 1.4 -0.6 1 1/2 43   
KANSAS CITY Arizona 10.1 9.2 10.5 7 1/2 44   
NEW ORLEANS Seattle 11.9 9.3 7.8 11 1/2 44   
Atlanta ST. LOUIS 4.7 3.3 3.8 3    43   
SAN FRANCISCO Tampa Bay 4.5 3.5 3.4 3    41 1/2
NEW ENGLAND
Indianapolis
3.9 2.6 5.1 3    50 1/2
PHILADELPHIA New York Giants 3.4 4.0 2.7 3    48 1/2
SAN DIEGO Denver 10.7 8.9 11.1 10    50   
 
PiRate Passer Rating
Player Team AYPA Int% PiRate #
Michael Vick PHI 7.5 0.00 126.0
Peyton Manning IND 6.1 1.03 109.1
Kyle Orton DEN 6.6 1.43 108.4
Tom Brady NE 6 1.32 106.0
Matt Cassel KC 5.7 1.50 102.7
Phillip Rivers SD 7 2.43 101.8
Matt Ryan ATL 5.5 1.48 101.8
Josh Freeman TB 5.7 1.85 99.6
Vince Young TEN 5.8 2.14 97.6
Colt McCoy CLE 5.6 2.02 97.6
Seneca Wallace CLE 5.4 2.00 96.6
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 6.1 2.53 95.9
Matt Schaub HOU 5.8 2.34 95.9
Mark Sanchez NYJ 5.2 2.01 95.4
Joe Flacco BAL 5.5 2.36 94.1
Aaron Rodger GB 5.6 2.97 89.2
Kevin Kolb PHI 4.9 2.61 88.4
Tony Romo DAL 5.7 3.29 87.0
Sam Bradford STL 4.1 2.40 85.9
Jason Campbell OAK 4.8 2.92 85.1
Drew Brees NO 5.1 3.21 84.3
Carson Palmer CIN 4.7 3.06 83.4
Chad Henne MIA 5 3.27 83.2
Kerry Collins TEN 4.2 2.80 82.8
Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 4.6 3.08 82.6
Donovan McNabb WAS 4.8 3.57 79.5
Shaun Hill DET 4.4 3.37 79.0
Jay Cutler CHI 4.8 3.66 78.7
Matt Hasselbeck SEA 3.7 2.97 78.6
Eli Manning NYG 5.4 4.08 78.4
David Garrard JAX 5.1 3.89 78.3
Alex Smith SF 4.2 3.72 74.8
Jimmy Clausen CAR 2.8 2.90 74.2
Bruce Gradkowski OAK 4.3 3.92 73.6
Derek Anderson ARI 3.7 3.87 70.7
Jon Kitna DAL 5 5.22 66.0
Brett Favre MIN 4 5.54 57.6
Matt Moore CAR 2 6.99 33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8
AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt.  It eliminates Yards After Catch and can be found at advancednflstats.com

November 9, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 10–November 11-15, 2010

Current NFL Standings
NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
NY Giants 6 2 0 216 160 108.0 105.0 108.7 2
Philadelphia 5 3 0 198 181 103.6 102.9 105.0 2
Washington 4 4 0 155 170 98.2 99.2 99.6 4
Dallas 1 7 0 161 232 90.4 94.8 90.0 3
                       
NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
Green Bay 6 3 0 221 143 108.1 106.5 106.7 3
Minnesota 3 5 0 156 168 99.6 100.2 96.5 3
Detroit 2 6 0 203 188 99.0 99.8 101.1 4
Chicago 5 3 0 148 133 98.2 99.3 101.4 2
                       
NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
New Orleans 6 3 0 201 151 105.8 103.0 106.1 2
Atlanta 6 2 0 196 154 103.2 102.9 106.1 3
Tampa Bay 5 3 0 157 190 94.7 96.7 100.8 2
Carolina 1 7 0 88 184 94.2 90.9 91.2 2
                       
NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
San Francisco 2 6 0 137 178 97.1 95.6 97.5 4
St. Louis 4 4 0 140 141 95.7 96.9 99.3 3
Arizona 3 5 0 157 225 94.3 94.6 92.5 4
Seattle 4 4 0 130 181 93.4 94.1 94.6 4
                       
AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
NY Jets 6 2 0 182 130 107.3 105.4 106.9 4
New England 6 2 0 219 188 104.7 104.0 104.3 2
Miami 4 4 0 143 175 101.7 100.3 101.1 2
Buffalo 0 8 0 150 233 94.9 93.4 93.6 2
                       
AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
Baltimore 6 2 0 175 139 107.6 104.8 105.6 2
Pittsburgh 6 2 0 174 123 104.8 106.4 105.4 2
Cleveland 3 5 0 152 156 101.4 100.2 101.1 2
Cincinnati 2 6 0 167 190 97.5 97.9 93.2 4
                       
AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
Indianapolis 5 3 0 187 151 105.9 105.4 104.2 4
Tennessee 5 3 0 224 150 103.2 106.6 103.3 2
Houston 4 4 0 176 196 97.5 98.4 97.5 2
Jacksonville 4 4 0 165 226 93.8 95.2 95.5 4
                       
AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
San Diego 4 5 0 239 197 102.6 102.8 100.0 4
Kansas City 5 3 0 183 145 100.3 101.4 100.5 2
Oakland 5 4 0 235 188 100.2 100.6 100.3 2
Denver 2 6 0 154 223 93.5 94.7 90.6 2

 

THIS WEEK’S PIRATE, MEAN, AND BIAS SPREADS

 

Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
Baltimore ATLANTA 1.4 -1.1 -3.5 -1 1/2 43   
INDIANAPOLIS Cincinnati 12.4 11.5 15.0 8    47 1/2
JACKSONVILLE Houston 0.3 0.8 2.0 2    50   
MIAMI Tennessee 0.5 -4.3 -0.1 -1    42 1/2
CHICAGO Minnesota 0.6 1.1 6.9 -1    40 1/2
Detroit BUFFALO 2.1 4.4 5.5 -3    42 1/2
New York Jets CLEVELAND 3.9 3.2 3.8 3    37   
TAMPA BAY Carolina 2.5 7.8 11.6 7    35 1/2
Kansas City DENVER 4.8 4.7 7.9 1    42   
SAN FRANCISCO St. Louis 5.4 2.7 2.2 6    38 1/2
ARIZONA Seattle 4.9 4.5 1.9 3    41   
NEW YORK GIANTS Dallas 19.6 12.2 20.7 14    45   
PITTSBURGH New England 2.1 4.4 3.1 4 1/2 45   
Philadelphia WASHINGTON 1.4 -0.3 1.4 3 42   

 

PIRATE QUARTERBACK PASSER FORMULA

 

Player Team AYPA Int% PiRate #  
Michael Vick PHI 6.7 0.00 121.5  
Peyton Manning IND 6.2 1.14 108.7  
Vince Young TEN 6.5 1.64 106.0  
Kyle Orton DEN 6.4 1.58 105.9  
Tom Brady NE 5.7 1.53 102.4  
Phillip Rivers SD 7.0 2.43 101.8  
Matt Ryan ATL 5.5 1.74 99.5  
Matt Cassel KC 5.2 1.87 96.7  
Seneca Wallace CLE 5.4 2.00 96.6  
Mark San chez NYJ 5.2 1.97 95.8  
Josh Freeman TB 5.3 2.03 95.8  
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 6.4 2.75 95.6  
Joe Flacco BAL 5.6 2.28 95.3  
Matt Schaub HOU 5.4 2.62 91.2  
Carson Palmer CIN 4.9 2.52 89.3  
Aaron Rodgers GB 5.6 2.97 89.2  
Kevin Kolb PHI 4.9 2.61 88.4  
Tony Romo DAL 5.7 3.29 87.0  
Donovan McNabb WAS 4.9 2.89 86.0  
Jason Campbell OAK 4.8 2.92 85.1  
Drew Brees NO 5.1 3.21 84.3  
Chad Henne MIA 4.9 3.24 83.0  
Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 4.6 3.08 82.6  
Jay Cutler CHI 4.9 3.32 82.2  
Sam Bradford STL 3.9 2.74 81.7  
Kerry Collins TEN 4.6 3.45 79.4  
Shaun Hill DET 4.4 3.37 79.0  
Matt Hasselbeck SEA 3.7 2.97 78.6  
Eli Manning NYG 5.3 4.06 78.0  
Alex Smith SF 4.2 3.72 74.8  
Bruce Gradkowski OAK 4.3 3.92 73.6  
Derek Anderson ARI 3.7 3.87 70.7  
David Garrard JAX 4.2 4.70 66.2  
Brett Favre MIN 4.3 5.04 63.7  
Jimmy Clausen CAR 2.0 3.67 62.9  
Jon Kitna DAL 3.6 5.36 57.0  
Trent Edwards JAX 1.4 5.26 45.5  
Matt Moore CAR 2.0 6.99 33.7  
           
Formula: [((7* Air Yards Per Attempt [eliminates YAC]) – (11* Int.%)) +105] * 0.8  
 
 
AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com  

 

 

Playoff Projections

 

N F C

1. New York Giants              12-4

2. Atlanta Falcons                 12-4

3. Green Bay Packers           10-6

4. Seattle Seahawks                 8-8

5. New Orleans Saints           11-5

6. Philadelphia Eagles           11-5

 

A F C

1. Pittsburgh Steelers            13-3

2. New York Jets                   12-4

3. Indianapolis Colts             10-6

4. Kansas City Chiefs            10-6

5. Baltimore Ravens              12-4

6. New England Patriots       11-5

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