This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads
| Home |
Visitor |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Score |
| San Francisco |
LA Rams |
3.8 |
3.3 |
3.9 |
41 |
| Jacksonville (London) |
Baltimore |
-7.9 |
-7.8 |
-8.2 |
41 |
| Indianapolis |
Cleveland |
3.0 |
2.9 |
2.3 |
46 |
| Chicago |
Pittsburgh |
-10.5 |
-10.3 |
-10.8 |
43 |
| N. Y. Jets |
Miami |
-5.4 |
-6.1 |
-5.3 |
44 |
| Buffalo |
Denver |
-4.1 |
-2.4 |
-4.4 |
41 |
| New England |
Houston |
12.0 |
12.1 |
12.4 |
38 |
| Carolina |
New Orleans |
6.0 |
6.0 |
6.4 |
58 |
| Minnesota |
Tampa Bay |
-0.5 |
0.7 |
-1.1 |
41 |
| Detroit |
Atlanta |
-0.7 |
0.5 |
-1.1 |
56 |
| Philadelphia |
N. Y. Giants |
4.0 |
2.5 |
5.3 |
36 |
| Tennessee |
Seattle |
2.9 |
2.8 |
3.0 |
43 |
| LA Chargers |
Kansas City |
-3.5 |
-4.0 |
-3.8 |
48 |
| Green Bay |
Cincinnati |
9.1 |
9.5 |
8.7 |
44 |
| Washington |
Oakland |
-2.5 |
-3.6 |
-1.9 |
53 |
| Arizona |
Dallas |
-0.2 |
1.1 |
-0.2 |
48 |
The AFC West Could Have The Three Best Teams In The NFL
How could it be that the three best teams in the NFL might all play in the same division? Is it possible that Oakland, Kansas City, and Denver are the top three teams? You’d get a good argument from fans in New England, Atlanta, and maybe Pittsburgh and Baltimore, but through two weeks of the season, it is hard to say that any of the other teams outside of the AFC West are better than the top three.
Oakland owns a win at Tennessee, the team picked to win the AFC South by a majority of prognosticators. Kansas City won at New England, a team that many thought could go 16-0 this year. Denver blew Dallas off the field Sunday. All three teams are 2-0, and it is possible that all three teams will win double digit games this year.
Guess what? This isn’t the first time this division has been so strong. Let’s return to the golden age of yesteryear. Set the time travel clock back to 1967 and 1968. The old American Football League’s West Division had the same four teams as today’s AFC West–Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs, and Raiders (The Cincinnati Bengals would join in 1968).
Oakland had the incredible mad bomber Daryle Lamonica throwing lasers to Warren Wells and Fred Biletnikoff with bruising running backs Hewritt Dixon, Clem Daniels, and Pete Banaszak, and the Raiders’ offense was maybe one of the best of all time during that era. The Silver and Black attack topped 32 points per game in consecutive seasons. The Raider defense featured stars in all three units. Tom Keating and the inimitable Ben Davidson kept the FTD Florist company in business, as relatives of injured NFL quarterbacks frequently ordered get-well bouquets for their injured heroes. Dan Conners was one of the top middle linebackers in the game in an era where this position usually was the most important of all. The secondary was tough with stars Willie Brown and Kent McCloughan at the corners.
Kansas City played a more ball-controlled offense than Oakland, but their defense was just as dominating as the Raiders, and it made for the best rivalry in the history of organized football. The Chiefs offense was led by Len Dawson, the most accurate passer in the AFL. Dawson did not throw as many deep balls, but he had the arm and accuracy. With incredible run support from Mike Garrett, Robert Holmes, and Wendell Hayes, the Chiefs ran the ball more than the rest of the AFL during this time, and it allowed their great defense to stay on the sidelines for longer stretches. When KC’s defense took the field, it was a red storm. Tackle Buck Buchanan was the biggest defender in the league. Teams usually ran away from him, which funneled the ball carrier toward another star, end Jerry Mays.
The linebacker corps may have been the best trio of all time. Willie Lanier was the cream of the crop of middle linebackers. Bobby Bell and Jim Lynch manned the outside spots, and this group was responsible for stopping opponents from converting first downs on third and short. On the back line, Johnny Robinson was one of the top two or three safeties in the 10-year history of the AFL, if not the best. Emmitt Thomas was the equal of Oakland’s Brown on the outside.
San Diego had been the dominant AFL West team during the first half of the decade. The Chargers won the AFL West Five of the first six years. Beginning with the Chiefs-Raiders dominance in 1966 and carrying through the 1970’s, the Chargers continued to be a very good team, just not quite up to the standards of the big two. San Diego was known to get off to great starts and then fade in the last four weeks of the season. In 1966, San Diego was just a half-game behind Kansas City after eight weeks, but they finished 7-6-1 losing four of their last six. In 1967, the Chargers were 8-1-1 through 10 games, just a half-game behind Oakland at 9-1. The two teams squared off in the AFL Game of the Year in San Diego. The Chargers briefly looked like they had what it took to win that day, before Oakland wore them down and Lamonica tore the Chargers’ secondary to shreds. Oakland finished 13-1, while the Chargers lost all the rest of their games to fall to 8-5-1, good for third place. In 1968, through 10 games, the Chargers stood at 8-2, tied with Oakland and a half-game behind Kansas City, who had played 11 games and was 9-2. Once again, the Chargers crashed in December, falling to 9-5, while Oakland and Kansas City won out to finish tied at 12-2 (Oakland won in a playoff).
If we look at history in this division, two of the three current dominating teams should continue to dominate week after week, while the third team will eventually fall back. Having to play four games against the other two powers will take its toll on all three teams, and it figures that one team will have a tough time recovering from the beatings. Statistically, we could be looking at one team finishing 12-4, one team finishing 11-5, and the third team falling to 9-7. Of course, this could be totally off base, and all three teams could be on their way to finishing between 12-4 and 10-6. All three teams could easily make the playoffs, as it looks unlikely that the AFC East or AFC South will produce a wild card team this year.
Only Thrice in 62 Years!
Can you name the NFL team that has won its division only three times in the last 62 years? Obviously, 62 years back means this team has to be an original NFL team. That should make it easy for you. In the last 62 seasons, The Detroit Lions won their three Black and Blue Division titles in 1983, 1991, and 1993. They have been the bridesmaid more times than any other team during that period, finishing second 16 times through the years.
With Minnesota and Green Bay showing numerous liabilities through two weeks of the season, could this finally be the year that Matthew Stafford guides the Lions to the top of the NFC North? Might there be a playoff victory coming to Ford Field? The last time the Lions won a playoff game, it happened at the old Pontiac Silverdome. Detroit slaughtered Dallas that day in 1991 by a score of 38-6. It wasn’t the great Barry Sanders that did all the damage. Quarterback Erik Kramer had a career day against the Cowboys, throwing for 341 yards and three touchdowns, while the Lions’ defense picked off two passes and sacked Cowboy quarterback Troy Aikman three times.
The Offense Continues to Rest
Through two weeks of play, the median NFL score is just 19 points, down four points from last year’s total. You have to go back to 1993 to find less scoring for an entire season. The NFL total TV ratings are down by a huge amount this year through the first two weeks of the season. While many in the political world believe it has to do with players refusing to stand for the National Anthem, we tend to believe that the average fan doesn’t really pay attention to that factor. The game has become boring. Teams no longer pass the ball down the field vertically. Quarterbacks rarely throw the ball more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. When it’s 3rd and 12, they throw a five-yard pass, hoping the receiver can run for another seven. Running games have come down to three basic types–a line plunge, a stretch, and a draw. All 32 teams look identical, like they must share one playbook.
Why do we believe that the ratings are down simply due to boring games and not due to political issues? There is a very simple explanation for our beliefs. Throughout the nation, there is unrest on the university campuses from coast to coast. Riots, vandalism, assaults, and the like are on the rise, and civil unrest is more the norm than the deviant behavior. Some colleges are redefining what is free speech. The same people that would theoretically have issues with this change of sociology and would be likely to turn off college football games just like they would turn off NFL games due to similar unrest have yet to turn away. In fact, college football ratings are on the rise, gaining about as much as the NFL is losing.
Therefore, it is our belief that total football TV ratings are about on par with their historical averages. The change is that more people are now watching on Saturday than ever before, while Sunday viewing is sinking. It is obvious why this is so. College football is quite a bit more entertaining.
In the college game, you have multiple offensive philosophies. Even when multiple teams run the identical spread offense, there are many variations. Arizona’s and New Mexico’s spread offenses are basically 21st Century wishbone offenses that have evolved. Ohio State’s and Auburn’s spread offenses resemble the old single wing offenses of way back. Oklahoma’s and Clemson’s spread offenses look more like the old NFL Shotgun offenses and the really old TCU Spread of the 1950s. You also have smash-mouth T offenses with Michigan and others. You still have standard triple option offenses at Army, Navy, Air Force, Tulane, and Georgia Tech. There is variety, and on top of the varying offenses, there are numerous philosophies on how to implement these offenses.
It also doesn’t hurt the college game that the average fan can choose between four or five games at 12 PM, 3:30 PM, and 7 PM Eastern time, while the NFL does not give that option to the fans. If you live in an NFL city, you get your team’s game, and if they are at home, you get only your team’s game. CBS and Fox have to take turns getting double header games, so if your team is at home when its regular network (CBS for AFC and Fox for NFC) doesn’t have a double header, you get just one Sunday afternoon game.
The NFL has to understand that just because somebody lives in Atlanta, Charlotte, Nashville, or Jacksonville, it does not mean they have lived there their entire lives. Actually, in the rapidly expanding metropolis cities of the Sunny South, more fans have moved into this area from colder and less financially lucrative cities. Take Nashville for instance. The city gains 100 new residents every day. In the last three football seasons, 109,500 new residents have added to the Music City’s metro population. Of that 100K plus, a large number moved from New York City, Chicago, Los Angeles, Atlanta, Tampa-St. Pete, Detroit, Cincinnati, Washington DC, and Dallas. Of the football fans, many remain fans of their former city and have no ties with the Titans. Go to a local sports-themed eatery on Sunday afternoon, and you will find as many fans of other teams watching their former city’s team play than there are fans at LP Field watching the Titans.
If the NFL was smart, it would drop their holier than thou elite beliefs and realize that it might be today’s Walmart having to face the new reality that there is now a better option called Amazon, and the fans have discovered this option.
This Week’s NFL PiRate Ratings
| A F C |
| East |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Avg |
Totals |
| New England |
106.4 |
107.0 |
106.3 |
106.5 |
24 |
| Miami |
99.6 |
99.8 |
99.3 |
99.6 |
23 |
| Buffalo |
97.5 |
98.2 |
97.7 |
97.8 |
22 |
| N. Y. Jets |
91.2 |
90.7 |
91.0 |
91.0 |
21 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| North |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Avg |
Totals |
| Pittsburgh |
105.9 |
106.1 |
105.8 |
106.0 |
22 |
| Baltimore |
103.4 |
103.5 |
103.7 |
103.5 |
18 |
| Cincinnati |
97.0 |
97.4 |
97.0 |
97.2 |
16 |
| Cleveland |
94.4 |
94.8 |
94.8 |
94.6 |
21 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| South |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Avg |
Totals |
| Tennessee |
101.0 |
101.1 |
100.5 |
100.9 |
25 |
| Houston |
97.4 |
97.8 |
96.9 |
97.4 |
14 |
| Jacksonville |
95.5 |
95.7 |
95.4 |
95.5 |
23 |
| Indianapolis |
95.4 |
95.7 |
95.0 |
95.4 |
25 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| West |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Avg |
Totals |
| Oakland |
105.4 |
106.0 |
105.1 |
105.5 |
28 |
| Kansas City |
105.2 |
105.4 |
105.6 |
105.4 |
22 |
| Denver |
104.6 |
103.6 |
105.1 |
104.4 |
19 |
| LA Chargers |
99.8 |
99.3 |
99.8 |
99.6 |
26 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| N F C |
| East |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Avg |
Totals |
| Dallas |
103.4 |
102.4 |
103.3 |
103.1 |
23 |
| Philadelphia |
101.3 |
100.1 |
102.2 |
101.2 |
22 |
| Washington |
99.3 |
98.9 |
99.7 |
99.3 |
25 |
| N.Y. Giants |
99.3 |
99.6 |
98.9 |
99.3 |
14 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| North |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Avg |
Totals |
| Green Bay |
103.2 |
103.9 |
102.7 |
103.3 |
28 |
| Detroit |
102.4 |
103.2 |
102.4 |
102.7 |
23 |
| Minnesota |
98.7 |
99.0 |
98.8 |
98.8 |
18 |
| Chicago |
92.9 |
93.4 |
92.5 |
92.9 |
21 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| South |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Avg |
Totals |
| Atlanta |
105.6 |
105.2 |
106.1 |
105.6 |
33 |
| Tampa Bay |
102.3 |
101.3 |
102.9 |
102.2 |
23 |
| Carolina |
101.4 |
100.5 |
101.7 |
101.2 |
25 |
| New Orleans |
98.4 |
97.5 |
98.4 |
98.1 |
33 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| West |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Avg |
Totals |
| Seattle |
101.2 |
101.3 |
100.5 |
101.0 |
18 |
| Arizona |
100.2 |
100.5 |
100.1 |
100.3 |
25 |
| San Francisco |
92.5 |
92.3 |
92.5 |
92.4 |
23 |
| LA Rams |
91.2 |
91.5 |
91.1 |
91.3 |
18 |
To estimate a game’s total points scored, add both teams’ totals.
The Pi-Rate Ratings 