The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 20, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 12: November 23-27, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Detroit Minnesota 2.1 2.6 1.5 44
Dallas LA Chargers 1.1 1.2 0.8 47
Washington N. Y. Giants 6.9 6.7 7.3 45
Cincinnati Cleveland 9.5 9.5 9.5 36
Philadelphia Chicago 17.3 15.5 18.5 44
New England Miami 19.5 19.3 20.2 44
Kansas City Buffalo 12.1 12.1 12.0 45
Atlanta Tampa Bay 9.5 9.4 9.6 51
N. Y. Jets Carolina -4.0 -3.9 -4.4 44
Indianapolis Tennessee -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 46
San Francisco Seattle -7.5 -8.0 -7.2 45
LA Rams New Orleans -1.1 -0.8 -1.3 53
Arizona Jacksonville -3.7 -3.5 -4.1 42
Oakland Denver 4.8 5.3 4.4 45
Pittsburgh Green Bay 11.8 11.4 12.5 41
Baltimore Houston 10.4 10.8 10.5 41

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 108.8 108.8 109.0 108.8 23 8-2
N. Y. Jets 95.8 95.3 96.0 95.7 19 4-6
Buffalo 94.9 95.2 95.0 95.0 23 5-5
Miami 92.3 92.5 91.7 92.2 21 4-6
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 106.3 106.4 106.5 106.4 21 8-2
Baltimore 104.3 104.8 104.2 104.4 19 5-5
Cincinnati 98.3 98.9 98.1 98.5 17 4-6
Cleveland 90.8 91.5 90.7 91.0 19 0-10
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 101.9 101.9 101.9 101.9 20 7-3
Tennessee 97.4 97.5 96.9 97.3 23 6-4
Houston 96.9 96.9 96.7 96.8 22 4-6
Indianapolis 94.0 94.1 93.7 93.9 23 3-7
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 103.9 104.4 104.0 104.1 22 6-4
LA Chargers 103.2 102.8 103.3 103.1 23 4-6
Oakland 97.9 98.5 97.1 97.8 23 4-6
Denver 96.1 96.1 95.8 96.0 22 3-7
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 109.7 108.1 111.0 109.6 25 9-1
Dallas 101.3 101.0 101.1 101.2 24 5-5
Washington 99.3 99.3 99.4 99.3 27 4-6
N.Y. Giants 94.9 95.1 94.6 94.9 18 2-8
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Minnesota 103.5 103.2 104.1 103.6 18 8-2
Detroit 102.6 102.8 102.6 102.7 26 6-4
Green Bay 97.6 98.0 97.0 97.5 20 5-5
Chicago 95.4 95.6 95.5 95.5 19 3-7
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 107.9 107.1 108.5 107.8 30 8-2
Atlanta 104.1 103.9 104.4 104.1 29 6-4
Carolina 102.9 102.2 103.4 102.8 25 7-3
Tampa Bay 97.7 97.5 97.8 97.7 22 4-6
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 103.7 103.3 104.2 103.7 23 7-3
Seattle 102.7 103.0 102.2 102.6 21 6-4
Arizona 95.2 95.4 94.8 95.1 22 4-6
San Francisco 92.1 92.0 92.0 92.0 24 1-9

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 New England
2 Pittsburgh
3 Jacksonville
4 LA Chargers
5 Kansas City
6 Baltimore
   
NFC Seeding
1 Philadelphia
2 New Orleans
3 LA Rams
4 Minnesota
5 Carolina
6 Seattle
Wildcard Round
Baltimore over Jacksonville
LA Chargers over Kansas City
LA Rams over Seattle
Carolina over Minnesota
 
Divisional Round
New England over Baltimore
Pittsburgh over LA Chargers
Philadelphia over Carolina
New Orleans over LA Rams
 
Conference Championship
Pittsburgh over New England
Philadelphia over New Orleans
 
Super Bowl 52
Philadelphia over Pittsburgh

 

 

 

 

 

 

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October 17, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 7: October 18-22, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Oakland Kansas City -1.6 -1.2 -2.4 42
Cleveland Tennessee -4.3 -3.9 -3.8 44
Indianapolis Jacksonville -2.2 -2.0 -2.7 49
Pittsburgh Cincinnati 7.2 7.0 7.0 36
Minnesota Baltimore 2.7 2.5 2.6 36
Miami N. Y. Jets 6.7 7.0 6.1 36
Buffalo Tampa Bay 3.9 4.5 4.4 45
Chicago Carolina -3.3 -2.6 -3.9 47
Green Bay New Orleans 2.3 3.6 1.7 56
LA Rams (London) Arizona -1.7 -2.1 -1.2 47
San Franciso Dallas -6.5 -6.4 -6.2 51
N. Y. Giants Seattle 1.9 1.6 2.1 34
LA Chargers Denver -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 43
New England Atlanta 3.9 4.6 3.6 53
Philadelphia Washington 6.7 5.9 7.4 49

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 104.3 104.9 104.0 104.4 23 4-2-0
Buffalo 100.5 100.6 101.0 100.7 21 3-2-0
Miami 97.3 97.2 96.9 97.1 18 3-2-0
N. Y. Jets 93.6 93.2 93.8 93.6 18 3-3-0
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 104.8 105.0 104.8 104.9 20 4-2-0
Baltimore 100.4 100.8 100.4 100.5 19 3-3-0
Cincinnati 100.1 100.5 100.2 100.3 16 2-3-0
Cleveland 91.1 91.6 91.2 91.3 19 0-6-0
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Houston 100.9 101.1 100.6 100.9 25 3-3-0
Jacksonville 98.4 98.6 98.2 98.4 24 3-3-0
Tennessee 98.4 98.4 98.0 98.3 25 3-3-0
Indianapolis 93.2 93.6 92.5 93.1 25 2-4-0
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 105.0 105.3 105.3 105.2 21 5-1-0
Denver 102.0 101.6 102.1 101.9 19 3-2-0
Oakland 100.5 101.1 99.9 100.5 21 2-4-0
LA Chargers 99.6 99.2 99.6 99.5 24 2-4-0
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 104.8 103.7 105.7 104.7 23 5-1-0
Dallas 102.3 101.8 102.1 102.1 26 2-3-0
N.Y. Giants 101.2 101.1 101.1 101.2 15 1-5-0
Washington 100.0 99.8 100.3 100.0 26 3-2-0
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Green Bay 102.3 102.7 102.1 102.4 25 4-2-0
Detroit 101.2 101.7 101.1 101.4 25 3-3-0
Minnesota 100.0 100.3 100.0 100.1 17 4-2-0
Chicago 94.7 95.0 94.6 94.8 21 2-4-0
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Atlanta 103.3 103.3 103.4 103.3 30 3-2-0
New Orleans 103.0 102.1 103.5 102.9 31 3-2-0
Carolina 101.1 100.5 101.5 101.0 26 4-2-0
Tampa Bay 99.6 99.1 99.6 99.4 24 2-3-0
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Seattle 102.9 103.0 102.5 102.8 19 3-2-0
Arizona 97.5 97.5 97.3 97.4 25 3-3-0
LA Rams 95.7 95.4 96.1 95.7 22 4-2-0
San Francisco 93.3 93.0 93.4 93.2 25 0-6-0

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Kansas City
2 New England
3 Pittsburgh
4 Houston
5 Denver
6 Miami
   
NFC Seeding
1 Philadelphia
2 Carolina
3 Los Angeles
4 Minnesota
5 Atlanta
6 Washington
Wildcard Round
Pittsburgh over Miami
Houston over Denver
Los Angeles over Washington
Atlanta over Minnesota
 
Divisional Round
Kansas City over Houston
Pittsburgh over New England
Philadelphia over Atlanta
Los Angeles over Carolina
 
Conference Championship
Kansas City over Pittsburgh
Philadelphia over Los Angeles
 
Super Bowl 52
Philadelphia over Kansas City

 

 

October 10, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 6: October 11-15, 2017

This Week’s NFL PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Carolina Philadelphia 0.2 0.5 -0.3 49
Houston Cleveland 12.4 12.4 11.8 43
N. Y. Jets New England -8.6 -9.7 -8.2 41
Atlanta Miami 10.9 10.8 11.7 49
New Orleans Detroit 2.4 0.8 2.6 54
Minnesota Green Bay -2.1 -2.3 -2.0 45
Baltimore Chicago 11.5 11.2 11.9 38
Washington San Francisco 11.2 11.1 11.6 51
Jacksonville LA Rams 10.2 10.4 10.1 46
Arizona Tampa Bay -0.3 0.6 -1.0 46
Kansas City Pittsburgh 5.7 5.4 6.4 43
Oakland LA Chargers 3.7 4.6 3.1 48
Denver N. Y. Giants 7.8 6.9 8.6 34
Tennessee Indianapolis 7.0 6.7 6.9 49

This Week’s NFL PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Buffalo 100.3 100.4 100.8 100.5 21
Miami 96.5 96.5 95.9 96.3 18
New England 104.7 105.3 104.4 104.8 23
N. Y. Jets 93.5 93.1 93.7 93.5 18
           
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Baltimore 101.8 102.0 102.0 101.9 18
Cincinnati 99.9 100.3 100.0 100.1 16
Cleveland 91.3 91.7 91.5 91.5 19
Pittsburgh 103.4 103.8 103.2 103.5 21
           
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Houston 100.7 101.0 100.3 100.7 24
Indianapolis 93.6 93.9 93.0 93.5 24
Jacksonville 100.2 100.2 100.2 100.2 24
Tennessee 98.0 98.1 97.5 97.9 25
           
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Denver 104.0 103.3 104.4 103.9 19
Kansas City 106.1 106.2 106.6 106.3 22
LA Chargers 99.2 98.8 99.2 99.1 25
Oakland 100.9 101.5 100.3 100.9 23
           
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Dallas 102.1 101.6 101.9 101.9 26
N.Y. Giants 99.2 99.4 98.8 99.2 15
Philadelphia 104.2 103.2 105.1 104.2 23
Washington 100.5 100.2 100.9 100.5 26
           
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Chicago 93.3 93.8 93.0 93.4 20
Detroit 102.4 103.0 102.5 102.7 24
Green Bay 103.9 104.3 103.7 104.0 28
Minnesota 99.7 100.0 99.7 99.8 17
           
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Atlanta 104.4 104.3 104.7 104.5 31
Carolina 101.4 100.7 101.8 101.3 26
New Orleans 101.8 100.8 102.1 101.6 30
Tampa Bay 100.2 99.5 100.5 100.1 23
           
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Arizona 96.9 97.1 96.4 96.8 23
LA Rams 93.4 93.3 93.6 93.4 22
San Francisco 92.8 92.6 92.8 92.7 25
Seattle 102.7 102.8 102.3 102.6 19

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Kansas City
2 New England
3 Jacksonville
4 Cincinnati
5 Denver
6 Baltimore
NFC Seeding
1 Philadelphia
2 Green Bay
3 Atlanta
4 Seattle
5 Carolina
6 Detroit
Wildcard Round
Baltimore over Jacksonville
Denver over Cincinnati
Atlanta over Detroit
Seattle over Carolina
 
Divisional Round
Kansas City over Baltimore
Denver over New England
Philadelphia over Seattle
Atlanta over Green Bay
 
Conference Championship
Kansas City over Denver
Philadelphia over Atlanta
 
Super Bowl 52
Kansas City over Philadelphia

 

October 3, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 4: October 4-8, 2017

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:48 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Tampa Bay New England -1.1 -2.5 -0.3 47
N. Y. Giants LA Chargers 3.6 4.1 3.3 40
Cincinnati Buffalo 2.5 2.7 1.9 37
Cleveland N. Y. Jets 1.7 2.4 1.8 40
Pittsburgh Jacksonville 11.6 11.5 11.7 45
Miami Tennessee 1.1 1.0 1.1 44
Indianapolis San Francisco 4.4 5.0 3.9 51
Philadelphia Arizona 6.5 5.1 7.7 46
Detroit Carolina 5.0 6.3 4.9 50
LA Rams Seattle -7.2 -7.5 -6.7 42
Oakland Baltimore 6.8 7.0 6.4 41
Dallas Green Bay 1.8 0.7 2.0 51
Houston Kansas City -1.7 -1.3 -2.5 42
Chicago Minnesota -3.9 -3.8 -4.4 37

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
New England 104.5 105.2 104.1 104.6 24
Buffalo 100.4 100.5 101.0 100.6 21
Miami 96.3 96.3 95.7 96.1 19
N. Y. Jets 93.2 92.8 93.3 93.1 19
           
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Pittsburgh 106.2 106.4 106.2 106.3 21
Cincinnati 99.8 100.2 99.8 100.0 16
Baltimore 99.7 100.0 99.7 99.8 18
Cleveland 91.9 92.3 92.2 92.1 21
           
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Houston 101.1 101.4 100.7 101.1 21
Tennessee 98.2 98.3 97.7 98.1 25
Jacksonville 97.7 97.9 97.5 97.7 24
Indianapolis 93.7 94.0 93.1 93.6 26
           
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Kansas City 105.7 105.8 106.2 105.9 21
Denver 103.8 103.1 104.2 103.7 19
Oakland 103.5 104.0 103.1 103.5 23
LA Chargers 99.2 98.8 99.1 99.0 25
           
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Dallas 102.4 101.8 102.3 102.2 25
Philadelphia 101.9 100.8 102.7 101.8 23
Washington 100.3 100.0 100.7 100.3 26
N.Y. Giants 99.2 99.4 98.9 99.2 15
           
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Green Bay 103.6 104.1 103.3 103.7 26
Detroit 102.9 103.5 103.1 103.2 24
Minnesota 99.7 100.0 99.8 99.8 17
Chicago 93.3 93.8 92.9 93.3 20
           
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Atlanta 104.2 104.1 104.5 104.3 31
New Orleans 101.6 100.6 101.9 101.4 30
Carolina 100.9 100.2 101.2 100.8 26
Tampa Bay 100.4 99.6 100.8 100.3 23
           
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Seattle 102.7 102.8 102.3 102.6 20
Arizona 98.9 99.2 98.5 98.9 23
LA Rams 93.4 93.3 93.6 93.4 22
San Francisco 92.7 92.5 92.7 92.6 25

PiRate Ratings Projected Playoffs

AFC

  1. Kansas City
  2. Pittsburgh
  3. New England
  4. Houston
  5. Denver
  6. Buffalo

NFC

  1. Atlanta
  2. Philadelphia
  3. Green Bay
  4. Seattle
  5. Carolina
  6. Los Angeles

Wildcard Round

New England over Buffalo

Houston over Denver

Green Bay over Los Angeles

Carolina over Seattle

 

Divisional Round

Kansas City over Houston

Pittsburgh over New England

Carolina over Atlanta

Philadelphia over Green Bay

 

Conference Championships

Kansas City over Pittsburgh

Philadelphia over Carolina

 

Super Bowl

Kansas City over Philadelphia

September 26, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 4: September 28-October 2, 2017

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:20 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Green Bay Chicago 10.8 11.4 10.6 46
Miami (London) New Orleans -3.0 -1.8 -3.6 52
New England Carolina 9.5 10.8 9.1 49
Dallas LA Rams 15.7 14.6 15.8 44
Minnesota Detroit 1.1 0.4 1.4 43
Houston Tennessee -0.1 0.1 -0.1 41
N. Y. Jets Jacksonville -2.5 -3.2 -2.5 43
Cleveland Cincinnati -1.2 -1.3 -1.0 37
Baltimore Pittsburgh -1.5 -1.7 -0.8 41
Atlanta Buffalo 10.3 9.5 10.4 53
Tampa Bay N. Y. Giants 3.7 2.8 4.5 38
LA Chargers Philadelphia 1.8 2.5 0.9 48
Arizona San Francisco 10.1 10.6 10.0 49
Denver Oakland 2.2 1.1 2.7 46
Seattle Indianapolis 9.1 8.9 8.7 44
Kansas City Washington 8.1 8.5 8.2 47

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
New England 105.7 106.4 105.5 105.8 24
Buffalo 98.6 99.0 99.0 98.9 22
Miami 97.6 97.7 97.1 97.5 21
N. Y. Jets 92.9 92.5 92.9 92.8 19
           
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Pittsburgh 104.6 105.0 104.3 104.7 22
Baltimore 101.2 101.3 101.5 101.3 19
Cincinnati 97.6 98.0 97.6 97.8 16
Cleveland 94.4 94.8 94.7 94.6 21
           
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Tennessee 101.2 101.3 100.7 101.1 25
Houston 98.1 98.4 97.7 98.1 16
Jacksonville 98.0 98.2 97.9 98.0 24
Indianapolis 95.4 95.7 95.1 95.4 25
           
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Kansas City 105.5 105.6 106.0 105.7 21
Oakland 104.3 104.8 104.0 104.4 26
Denver 103.5 102.8 103.8 103.4 20
LA Chargers 99.5 99.1 99.4 99.3 25
           
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Dallas 104.2 103.3 104.3 104.0 24
Philadelphia 101.2 100.1 102.0 101.1 23
Washington 100.4 100.1 100.8 100.4 26
N.Y. Giants 99.4 99.6 99.1 99.4 15
           
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Detroit 102.4 103.2 102.4 102.7 24
Green Bay 102.6 103.3 102.1 102.7 26
Minnesota 100.5 100.6 100.8 100.6 19
Chicago 94.2 94.5 94.0 94.2 20
           
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Atlanta 105.9 105.5 106.4 105.9 31
New Orleans 100.6 99.5 100.8 100.3 31
Tampa Bay 100.2 99.4 100.6 100.1 23
Carolina 99.2 98.5 99.3 99.0 25
           
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Seattle 101.0 101.1 100.3 100.8 19
Arizona 99.4 99.6 99.1 99.4 24
San Francisco 92.2 92.1 92.1 92.1 25
LA Rams 91.5 91.7 91.5 91.6 20

Our Official Statement on the Current Situation in the NFL

Neither side is right and neither side is wrong.  There is too much black and white in this world, and this is no different.  Life should not be an either or situation on everything that exists, but the human race has not evolved enough to get past this fact.

The problem is that neither side understands tactfulness, maturity, diplomacy, and statesmanship.  Maybe, consultants have advised the two factions to reduce the problem to childlike fighting, and that is sad if the populace can only understand issues when reduced to a childlike mentality.

Nevertheless, the problem is that an entertaining three-hour escape from the stress of the real world has now been altered into just another stressful afternoon.  The 6 members of the PiRate Ratings have decided that the situation has eliminated the needed escape that  NFL Football provided us–up to 56 years for our oldest contributor.  Thus, on Sunday, none of us attended or viewed a game.  Tickets went unused at Lambeau Field, LP Field, and U.S. Bank Stadium.  A fouth stadium, Firstenergy in Cleveland, will join this list this week.  As best as we can estimate, this is the first time since sometime in 1963 that at least once of us has failed to watch an NFL game.

We have received more emails than we can respond to this week, and we will refrain from giving out the email address for now, because it will take a couple weeks to reply to all of them.  But, it is obvious that you our reader are more than likely to stop watching and attending than to watch or attend.  Actually, we have yet to receive an email in support of the players, and we can only surmise that some of you that did not send us a message are still watching.

Feel free to comment in the comment section of this entry.  If you refrain from profanity and comment in a civil and intelligent manner, your comment will be accepted.  We will censor any profanity or below-the-belt comments.  We are a scientific/mathematic website more interested in the numbers than the individuals on either side of this issue.

For those that have not seen this unaltered, here are the exact words of the 1st Amendment of the Bill of Rights.

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances.

Why The Ratings Drop Does Matter

We have heard  many apologists proclaim that the drastic TV ratings drop had little or nothing to do with the current situation between the two opposing sides.  We have seen excuses such as “The Emmy Awards aired opposite SNF,” and “It was Oprah’s Debut on 60 Minutes.”

There is one telltale sign that tends to make us believe these apologies are off the mark.  While the ratings for the football games have dropped off the table, the ratings for the pre-game shows are actually up.  People are tuning in to the pre-game in greater numbers and then switching channels or turning the TV off before the kickoff.  This is a definite sign that the league has alienated a large number of fans, or maybe we should say former fans.  Turning the channel or turning off the TV in the middle of a time slot is considered a bigger deal than doing so at the top or bottom of the hour when programs change.  As a former journalist in radio and television, our founder understands the implications in local news when the ratings change during the weather segment or sports segment.

 

September 21, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for September 21-25, 2017

This Week’s Money Line Parlay Selections
We are going with four different selections, all combining two favorites at better than +130 odds.

#1 @ +161  
Must Win Must Lose
Boise St. Virginia
North Carolina Duke

#2 @ +145  
Must Win Must Lose
Wake Forest Appalachian St.
San Diego St. Air Force

#3 @ +133  
Must Win Must Lose
Miami NY Jets
Atlanta Detroit

#4 @ +164  
Must Win Must Lose
Kansas City LA Chargers
Denver Buffalo

 

Winner Winner but Not Enough Chicken to Call It Dinner
We prefaced last weeks two choices by telling you we were not all that confident with either one, because they both required five teams to win in order to win the two Money Line Parlay selections. As it turned out, we won one of the two, which guaranteed a winning week, but we were not all that happy with the outcome. You see, the other 5-game parlay quickly went 4-0 during Saturday afternoon. The final game of the parlay took place Saturday night in Columbia, South Carolina, where the Gamecocks hosted Kentucky. USC’s offense failed to show up, and Kentucky’s defense played exceptionally well, and poof went our hopes and dreams for a big payday.

With the exception of Kansas City having to hold on to beat Philadelphia, the five NFL games on our parlay were nondescript. All five teams won, and in most cases, their games were never in doubt.

So, for the week with our imaginary bankroll, we invested $200 and received back $376 for a return on investment of 88%. For the year, we are still in the hole, as we have invested $800 and received back $654 for a return on investment of -18%.

This week we double our selections to four, but the four games only require us to play two teams each. That’s the way we usually prefer to go–play two game parlays that return better than +120 odds. We have received multiple inquiries from you concerning how we figure our payout odds. We get this every year, and we realize that some of you are new to this site, so we apologize for not remembering this at the beginning of each season.

Here is the explanation in full so that even the first-time reader can understand.
The Money Line is different from wagering against the spread. In the normal spread wagering, if Team A is favored by 4 1/2 points over Team B, you can take one side over the other. If Team A wins by 5 or more points, that side wins the wager. If Team B wins or loses by less than 5 points, that side wins the wager.

In the Money Line, you only need to select the team that you believe will win the game, be it by 1 or 100 points. The difference here is that if you wager on the favorite, you must give the sports book better odds than you get. If you wager on the underdog, the sports book must give you better odds than they will get. Of course, the odds you get either way will be 10% shy of what the true odds would be, as the book must make its profit.

Let’s say that the Money Line for Team C vs. Team D is: Team C -200 and Team D +170. What this means is that if you wager on Team C, for every $2 you invest, you have the opportunity to win $1 in profit. In easier parlance, you must invest $200 to win $100 in profit. If you place a $100 bet on Team C to win, and they win, you receive back $150 (The $100 you invested + the $50 profit). If you wager on Team D, then for every $1 you invest, if Team D wins in an upset, you would receive $1.70 in profits. Thus, if you wagered $100 on Team D, and they pulled off the upset, you would receive $270 back from the book (The $100 you invested + $170 profit).

The PiRates have had some modicum of success wagering on multiple game Money Line parlays. Rather than wager on favorites and risk losing a lot more than winning when the upset occurs, we like to parlay (combine) games between favorites until the total odds exceed +120. That means that for every parlay we play, our reward for a win would exceed 20% profit. We believe we can find multiple favorites every week that when combined in a parlay, give us these wonderful odds as well as an excellent opportunity to win.

Let’s take a look at how a parlay works. We won’t bore you with the math, because we explained it one year, and it was a snooze fest. You don’t need to know how to calculate the payoff odds, as there are numerous Parlay Calculators available online. We like the one at vegasinsider.com. It is easy to use, and you can reset it and quickly do another game.

There is another key in getting the best odds–shop around. Besides the odds at Vegas Insider, we search Madduxsports.com, Oddsshark.com, and Covers.com among others.

Let’s take a look at how the parlay calculator works and how it applies to what we do. Let’s look at the Vegasinsider.com parlay calculator which you can find at: http://www.vegasinsider.com/parlay-calculator/.

Look at the money line odds for the teams you want to combine into a parlay. Let’s say that you know with close to 100% certainty that Ohio State will beat UNLV and Clemson will beat Boston College this week. Okay, so just about anybody could select this and believe they had it made. Okay, let’s now look at the Money Lines for these two games. As this is written early Thursday morning on the East Coast, we can find a Money Line for Ohio State at -54,000 and for Clemson at -20,825. Plug those two numbers into the calculator, and the result is: 0.67. This means if you wager $100 on this parlay, you stand a chance to win 67 cents back in profit. That’s why you would not play this parlay–it is ridiculous to risk $100 for receiving 67 cents change.

Now, let’s look at something more realistic. Let’s look at a couple of NFL games. Tonight, the LA Rams play at San Francisco. We can find current money line odds of -140 on LA. Now, look at Baltimore at Jacksonville. The Ravens’ money line odds from the identical book (each parlay must be played with just one book obviously), is -190. We plug in -140 and -190 in the calculator, and the result is: 161.65. Now, this is a number we like. We can put down $100 on this parlay, and if both the Rams and Ravens win, we would receive $261.65 back from the book ($100 invested + $161.65 profit). The catch is that both Baltimore and LA must win their games. If one doesn’t, then we are out that $100.

Let’s do just a little math now, because we are numbers’ nerds here on the SS Euclide PiRate Ship. Let’s say the average payout odds of all the games we select for an entire season are +167. What percentage of games must we win to break even for the year? Look at this the easy way. If we lose 5 games, we are out $500. If we win 3 games we make $501 in profit. So, we must win 3 out of every 8 games we select to break even, and that comes to 37.5% accuracy.

The last three seasons, we have exceeded this 37.5% success rate, two of the three years by quite a lot. It is our niche. We believe that we can successfully stay above 40%. At just 42.9%, we can return 14.4% on what we invest. At 44.4%, we can return 18.7% on what we invest. At 50%, we can return 33.5% on what we invest. Last year, we won more than we lost and took an 11% profit for the season. Two years ago was a windfall, as we topped 40%.

You might say that it is unwise to wager this amount for 11% profit, because you can return 11% in an average year by purchasing an S&P 500 ETF through a discount broker. That’s quite true, and we heartily endorse this over wagering on our recommendations. There are a couple of catches. First, the 11% return on your ETF requires 365 days. The 11% through the sports books only takes 5 months. That equates to an annual return of 26.4%, and you don’t have to worry about selling your stock all at once. You get weekly dividends when you win. Then, in January, you can take your winnings and invest them in that ETF, or Dogs of the Dow, or with Warren Buffett or Seth Klarman if you can.

OF COURSE, AND MAKE SURE YOU READ THIS–We do this just for fun and never wager real currency on our selections provided herein.  We suggest you do the same.

September 19, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 3: September 21-25, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Score
San Francisco LA Rams 3.8 3.3 3.9 41
Jacksonville (London) Baltimore -7.9 -7.8 -8.2 41
Indianapolis Cleveland 3.0 2.9 2.3 46
Chicago Pittsburgh -10.5 -10.3 -10.8 43
N. Y. Jets Miami -5.4 -6.1 -5.3 44
Buffalo Denver -4.1 -2.4 -4.4 41
New England Houston 12.0 12.1 12.4 38
Carolina New Orleans 6.0 6.0 6.4 58
Minnesota Tampa Bay -0.5 0.7 -1.1 41
Detroit Atlanta -0.7 0.5 -1.1 56
Philadelphia N. Y. Giants 4.0 2.5 5.3 36
Tennessee Seattle 2.9 2.8 3.0 43
LA Chargers Kansas City -3.5 -4.0 -3.8 48
Green Bay Cincinnati 9.1 9.5 8.7 44
Washington Oakland -2.5 -3.6 -1.9 53
Arizona Dallas -0.2 1.1 -0.2 48

 

The AFC West Could Have The Three Best Teams In The NFL
How could it be that the three best teams in the NFL might all play in the same division? Is it possible that Oakland, Kansas City, and Denver are the top three teams? You’d get a good argument from fans in New England, Atlanta, and maybe Pittsburgh and Baltimore, but through two weeks of the season, it is hard to say that any of the other teams outside of the AFC West are better than the top three.

Oakland owns a win at Tennessee, the team picked to win the AFC South by a majority of prognosticators. Kansas City won at New England, a team that many thought could go 16-0 this year. Denver blew Dallas off the field Sunday. All three teams are 2-0, and it is possible that all three teams will win double digit games this year.

Guess what? This isn’t the first time this division has been so strong. Let’s return to the golden age of yesteryear. Set the time travel clock back to 1967 and 1968. The old American Football League’s West Division had the same four teams as today’s AFC West–Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs, and Raiders (The Cincinnati Bengals would join in 1968).
Oakland had the incredible mad bomber Daryle Lamonica throwing lasers to Warren Wells and Fred Biletnikoff with bruising running backs Hewritt Dixon, Clem Daniels, and Pete Banaszak, and the Raiders’ offense was maybe one of the best of all time during that era. The Silver and Black attack topped 32 points per game in consecutive seasons. The Raider defense featured stars in all three units. Tom Keating and the inimitable Ben Davidson kept the FTD Florist company in business, as relatives of injured NFL quarterbacks frequently ordered get-well bouquets for their injured heroes. Dan Conners was one of the top middle linebackers in the game in an era where this position usually was the most important of all. The secondary was tough with stars Willie Brown and Kent McCloughan at the corners.

Kansas City played a more ball-controlled offense than Oakland, but their defense was just as dominating as the Raiders, and it made for the best rivalry in the history of organized football. The Chiefs offense was led by Len Dawson, the most accurate passer in the AFL. Dawson did not throw as many deep balls, but he had the arm and accuracy. With incredible run support from Mike Garrett, Robert Holmes, and Wendell Hayes, the Chiefs ran the ball more than the rest of the AFL during this time, and it allowed their great defense to stay on the sidelines for longer stretches. When KC’s defense took the field, it was a red storm. Tackle Buck Buchanan was the biggest defender in the league. Teams usually ran away from him, which funneled the ball carrier toward another star, end Jerry Mays.

The linebacker corps may have been the best trio of all time. Willie Lanier was the cream of the crop of middle linebackers. Bobby Bell and Jim Lynch manned the outside spots, and this group was responsible for stopping opponents from converting first downs on third and short. On the back line, Johnny Robinson was one of the top two or three safeties in the 10-year history of the AFL, if not the best. Emmitt Thomas was the equal of Oakland’s Brown on the outside.

San Diego had been the dominant AFL West team during the first half of the decade. The Chargers won the AFL West Five of the first six years. Beginning with the Chiefs-Raiders dominance in 1966 and carrying through the 1970’s, the Chargers continued to be a very good team, just not quite up to the standards of the big two. San Diego was known to get off to great starts and then fade in the last four weeks of the season. In 1966, San Diego was just a half-game behind Kansas City after eight weeks, but they finished 7-6-1 losing four of their last six. In 1967, the Chargers were 8-1-1 through 10 games, just a half-game behind Oakland at 9-1. The two teams squared off in the AFL Game of the Year in San Diego. The Chargers briefly looked like they had what it took to win that day, before Oakland wore them down and Lamonica tore the Chargers’ secondary to shreds. Oakland finished 13-1, while the Chargers lost all the rest of their games to fall to 8-5-1, good for third place. In 1968, through 10 games, the Chargers stood at 8-2, tied with Oakland and a half-game behind Kansas City, who had played 11 games and was 9-2. Once again, the Chargers crashed in December, falling to 9-5, while Oakland and Kansas City won out to finish tied at 12-2 (Oakland won in a playoff).

If we look at history in this division, two of the three current dominating teams should continue to dominate week after week, while the third team will eventually fall back. Having to play four games against the other two powers will take its toll on all three teams, and it figures that one team will have a tough time recovering from the beatings. Statistically, we could be looking at one team finishing 12-4, one team finishing 11-5, and the third team falling to 9-7. Of course, this could be totally off base, and all three teams could be on their way to finishing between 12-4 and 10-6. All three teams could easily make the playoffs, as it looks unlikely that the AFC East or AFC South will produce a wild card team this year.

Only Thrice in 62 Years!
Can you name the NFL team that has won its division only three times in the last 62 years? Obviously, 62 years back means this team has to be an original NFL team. That should make it easy for you. In the last 62 seasons, The Detroit Lions won their three Black and Blue Division titles in 1983, 1991, and 1993. They have been the bridesmaid more times than any other team during that period, finishing second 16 times through the years.

With Minnesota and Green Bay showing numerous liabilities through two weeks of the season, could this finally be the year that Matthew Stafford guides the Lions to the top of the NFC North? Might there be a playoff victory coming to Ford Field? The last time the Lions won a playoff game, it happened at the old Pontiac Silverdome. Detroit slaughtered Dallas that day in 1991 by a score of 38-6. It wasn’t the great Barry Sanders that did all the damage. Quarterback Erik Kramer had a career day against the Cowboys, throwing for 341 yards and three touchdowns, while the Lions’ defense picked off two passes and sacked Cowboy quarterback Troy Aikman three times.

The Offense Continues to Rest
Through two weeks of play, the median NFL score is just 19 points, down four points from last year’s total. You have to go back to 1993 to find less scoring for an entire season. The NFL total TV ratings are down by a huge amount this year through the first two weeks of the season. While many in the political world believe it has to do with players refusing to stand for the National Anthem, we tend to believe that the average fan doesn’t really pay attention to that factor. The game has become boring. Teams no longer pass the ball down the field vertically. Quarterbacks rarely throw the ball more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. When it’s 3rd and 12, they throw a five-yard pass, hoping the receiver can run for another seven. Running games have come down to three basic types–a line plunge, a stretch, and a draw. All 32 teams look identical, like they must share one playbook.

Why do we believe that the ratings are down simply due to boring games and not due to political issues? There is a very simple explanation for our beliefs. Throughout the nation, there is unrest on the university campuses from coast to coast. Riots, vandalism, assaults, and the like are on the rise, and civil unrest is more the norm than the deviant behavior. Some colleges are redefining what is free speech. The same people that would theoretically have issues with this change of sociology and would be likely to turn off college football games just like they would turn off NFL games due to similar unrest have yet to turn away. In fact, college football ratings are on the rise, gaining about as much as the NFL is losing.

Therefore, it is our belief that total football TV ratings are about on par with their historical averages. The change is that more people are now watching on Saturday than ever before, while Sunday viewing is sinking. It is obvious why this is so. College football is quite a bit more entertaining.

In the college game, you have multiple offensive philosophies. Even when multiple teams run the identical spread offense, there are many variations. Arizona’s and New Mexico’s spread offenses are basically 21st Century wishbone offenses that have evolved. Ohio State’s and Auburn’s spread offenses resemble the old single wing offenses of way back. Oklahoma’s and Clemson’s spread offenses look more like the old NFL Shotgun offenses and the really old TCU Spread of the 1950s. You also have smash-mouth T offenses with Michigan and others. You still have standard triple option offenses at Army, Navy, Air Force, Tulane, and Georgia Tech. There is variety, and on top of the varying offenses, there are numerous philosophies on how to implement these offenses.

It also doesn’t hurt the college game that the average fan can choose between four or five games at 12 PM, 3:30 PM, and 7 PM Eastern time, while the NFL does not give that option to the fans. If you live in an NFL city, you get your team’s game, and if they are at home, you get only your team’s game. CBS and Fox have to take turns getting double header games, so if your team is at home when its regular network (CBS for AFC and Fox for NFC) doesn’t have a double header, you get just one Sunday afternoon game.

The NFL has to understand that just because somebody lives in Atlanta, Charlotte, Nashville, or Jacksonville, it does not mean they have lived there their entire lives. Actually, in the rapidly expanding metropolis cities of the Sunny South, more fans have moved into this area from colder and less financially lucrative cities. Take Nashville for instance. The city gains 100 new residents every day. In the last three football seasons, 109,500 new residents have added to the Music City’s metro population. Of that 100K plus, a large number moved from New York City, Chicago, Los Angeles, Atlanta, Tampa-St. Pete, Detroit, Cincinnati, Washington DC, and Dallas. Of the football fans, many remain fans of their former city and have no ties with the Titans. Go to a local sports-themed eatery on Sunday afternoon, and you will find as many fans of other teams watching their former city’s team play than there are fans at LP Field watching the Titans.

If the NFL was smart, it would drop their holier than thou elite beliefs and realize that it might be today’s Walmart having to face the new reality that there is now a better option called Amazon, and the fans have discovered this option.

 

This Week’s NFL PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
New England 106.4 107.0 106.3 106.5 24
Miami 99.6 99.8 99.3 99.6 23
Buffalo 97.5 98.2 97.7 97.8 22
N. Y. Jets 91.2 90.7 91.0 91.0 21
           
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Pittsburgh 105.9 106.1 105.8 106.0 22
Baltimore 103.4 103.5 103.7 103.5 18
Cincinnati 97.0 97.4 97.0 97.2 16
Cleveland 94.4 94.8 94.8 94.6 21
           
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Tennessee 101.0 101.1 100.5 100.9 25
Houston 97.4 97.8 96.9 97.4 14
Jacksonville 95.5 95.7 95.4 95.5 23
Indianapolis 95.4 95.7 95.0 95.4 25
           
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Oakland 105.4 106.0 105.1 105.5 28
Kansas City 105.2 105.4 105.6 105.4 22
Denver 104.6 103.6 105.1 104.4 19
LA Chargers 99.8 99.3 99.8 99.6 26
           
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Dallas 103.4 102.4 103.3 103.1 23
Philadelphia 101.3 100.1 102.2 101.2 22
Washington 99.3 98.9 99.7 99.3 25
N.Y. Giants 99.3 99.6 98.9 99.3 14
           
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Green Bay 103.2 103.9 102.7 103.3 28
Detroit 102.4 103.2 102.4 102.7 23
Minnesota 98.7 99.0 98.8 98.8 18
Chicago 92.9 93.4 92.5 92.9 21
           
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Atlanta 105.6 105.2 106.1 105.6 33
Tampa Bay 102.3 101.3 102.9 102.2 23
Carolina 101.4 100.5 101.7 101.2 25
New Orleans 98.4 97.5 98.4 98.1 33
           
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Seattle 101.2 101.3 100.5 101.0 18
Arizona 100.2 100.5 100.1 100.3 25
San Francisco 92.5 92.3 92.5 92.4 23
LA Rams 91.2 91.5 91.1 91.3 18

To estimate a game’s total points scored, add both teams’ totals.

 

 

September 14, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for September 14-18, 2017

Yuck!  You could say that about the weather in recent weeks.  You could say that about there not being enough “United” in the United States in recent months.  You could say that about being a Dodgers’ fan during the last fortnight or being a fan of a team that has a 4-game set with the Cleveland Indians.  You could say that about prime-time TV for the last 40+ years.  But, most of all, you can sum up our money line parlay selections through two weeks of the football season with that one word.

We usually start each season off a bit weak and then begin to succeed around the first week of October, culminating in a big couple of weeks in the second half that brings us a positive return on investment for the season.  We have to admit that so far this year, there seems to be just enough added parity in college football along with the usual uncertainty at the start of the NFL season to make this downright difficult to find parlays that return the type of odds we look for.  Sure, we could take Alabama at minus one zillion and win a dollar, and we could even put together a parlay of 10 favorites like Penn State over Georgia State and maybe get a parlay at -500, where for every 500 we put up we can win another 100.  But, that isn’t our style.  We are on the lookout only for parlays that give us +120 or higher odds.

We selected 5 parlays last week.  Each had excellent payout odds, and we were still alive in some of the really good ones with just one game left.  We selected Oklahoma to win at Ohio State and could have returned a nice chunk of cash playing that game as a singleton.  No, we had to add Stanford to that game to get +1010 odds, and when Stanford began the game looking like they could possibly win, we were pumped with the possibility that we could get far ahead on the plus side for the season.  Alas, USC started to look like the prognosticators believed they would look, and the Cardinal went back to Palo Alto with a huge loss on their slate.

So, for the week, we invested $500 of imaginary bankroll and received back $278 for a loss of $222 or -44% Return on Investment.  For the season, the numbers worsen to $600 invested and $278 returned for a -55.6% ROI.

As bad as the above sounds, it will sound even worse when we tell you that we didn’t really like 90% of the possible money lines this week.  We couldn’t find much value in this week’s college schedule, and the NFL still looks mysterious.  At this point of the season, and with two teams not even playing a game in week one, the NFL wars leave us trapped in a giant minefield.  Is there a new Dallas Cowboys team out there destined to go from last place in 2016 to the best record in the league?  What do we make of the LA Rams looking like the New England Patriots in week one, or the Patriots’ defense looking more like the 49ers defense?  What about the anemic offenses in Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Houston, and New York (pick your poison with the Giants or Jets)?  What about the AFC West?  Could it be that four of the top 10 teams or at least three of the top five teams in the AFC come from that division?  The Chiefs and Raiders dominated in week one like it was 1966 through 1969 in the old AFL.

What we are trying to say is that we are only risking $200 of imaginary bankroll this week.  We are selecting one college and one NFL parlay, and we admit up front, we do not particularly like either selection, because they both required too many games to get the odds we like.  If we win one of the two, it will be a profitable week, but we are telling you before you see the two picks that we have little faith in either one this week.  As we said before, if you want a guaranteed winner to about 96% possibility, then you can come up with a parlay of about 10 sure things and still have to play them at ridiculous odds so that one upset would empty your account.

For instance, you could make a parlay of Penn State over Georgia State, Virginia Tech over East Carolina, Oklahoma over Tulane, Ohio State over Army, Alabama over Colorado State, Utah over San Jose State, Washington over Fresno State, and Michigan over Air Force.  All eight teams are prohibitive favorites, and it is an almost certain possibility that all eight favorites will win, making this almost a sure thing.  The problem is that for every $100 you put into a parlay like this, you can win a whopping $18.37 profit on your investment.  It is actually a sucker bet, because out of those eight sure things, at this point in the season, one of those games is not the sure thing it looks to be, and we don’t really know which one it is, but rest assured one of these sure thing games will turn out not to be that way.

With that in mind, here are our two official selections for the week.

#1 @ +179  
Must Win Must Lose
Temple U Mass
South Carolina Kentucky
Duke Baylor
Wake Forest Utah St.
Oregon Wyoming

Having to go five games deep to get a decent potential ROI, we would expect to get better favorites than this quintet.  We went with Temple mainly because this is a selection against U Mass.  South Carolina and Kentucky look like it should be close to a tossup, but in Columbia, we believe the Gamecocks are a touchdown better, and they are coming off a semi-impressive win over Missouri, while the Wildcats have been close to clawless through two lackluster wins.  We are taking Duke over Baylor for the same reason we took Temple; Baylor has looked anemic in two games under Matt Rhule, and the transition to his style of play could be really tough.  Wake Forest looks to have something going this year under Dave Clawson,  The Demon Deacons took Boston College to the woodshed last week, and at home against a so-so Utah State team, they “appear” to be ready to start the season at 3-0.  Oregon looks like one of those sure things against Wyoming, but you never know what might happen in Laramie.  That is a subtle home field advantage for the Cowboys, and an improving Duck team may be walking into an ambush.

 

#2 @ +276  
Must Win Must Lose
Baltimore Cleveland
Carolina Buffalo
New England New Orleans
Kansas City Philadelphia
Oakland NY Jets

The Ravens looked more like the Baltimore teams of 4 to 5 years ago last week when they punished Andy Dalton and Cincinnati.  The Bengals score after 60 minutes was the same as their score before the game kicked off.  The Ravens now get Cleveland for their home-opener, but the Browns looked like they were a force to be reckoned with against Pittsburgh in week one.  It could be that “Money Ball” is about to start paying off near Lake Erie.  But, we believe the Ravens will be up to the task this Sunday.  Is Carolina going to look more like the 2015 team than the 2016 team?  Did Buffalo really look that bad against the 32nd best team in the NFL and really have to worry about beating the Jets?  If so, then the Panthers should win by double digits this week.  New England playing New Orleans should never be allowed to happen again.  No, we don’t mean the two teams should never be scheduled, but how do you give one team and extra three days off while making the other team have to play on the road on Monday Night?  4 extra days to prepare for a game, coming off the debacle in Foxboro on opening night against the Chiefs?  We’ll take the road team in this one.  In taking Kansas City and Oakland at home against the Eagles and Jets, we are going under the assumption that the two bitter rivals are possibly the two best teams in the NFL.

So, there you have it for this week.  Remember that the PiRates never wager real money on our selections.  It is just a mathematical exercise for fun.  Please do not wager real money on our just-for-fun selections.  That even goes for the five or six of you who are real professionals who claim that you have a unique way of playing our ratings that makes your weekends very profitable.  It reminds us of the football handicapper with a system that consistently won 26% of his single sides wagers and never realized that if he just took the other side every week, he’d be the most successful guy in Vegas.

September 6, 2017

PiRate Ratings–NFL For Week 1

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:18 am

Week 1 NFL Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
New England Kansas City 7.4 7.7 6.9
Buffalo N. Y. Jets 7.7 9.6 7.9
Chicago Atlanta -7.7 -6.4 -8.5
Cincinnati Baltimore 2.6 2.0 2.9
Cleveland Pittsburgh -7.9 -8.0 -7.3
Dallas N. Y. Giants 5.0 3.2 4.9
Detroit Arizona 1.1 2.3 0.8
Green Bay Seattle 3.8 5.1 3.6
Houston Jacksonville 7.7 8.4 7.2
LA Rams Indianapolis -1.1 -1.1 -0.9
Miami (Postponed) Tampa Bay x x x
San Francisco Carolina -3.7 -3.4 -3.9
Tennessee Oakland -1.3 -2.2 -1.2
Washington Philadelphia 2.5 3.5 1.9
Denver LA Chargers 4.5 5.0 4.7
Minnesota New Orleans 1.9 4.2 1.7

Week 1 NFL Totals

Home Visitor Total
New England Kansas City 41
Buffalo N. Y. Jets 46
Chicago Atlanta 56
Cincinnati Baltimore 36
Cleveland Pittsburgh 45
Dallas N. Y. Giants 37
Detroit Arizona 47
Green Bay Seattle 47
Houston Jacksonville 37
LA Rams Indianapolis 43
Miami (postponed) Tampa Bay x
San Francisco Carolina 52
Tennessee Oakland 52
Washington Philadelphia 47
Denver LA Chargers 46
Minnesota New Orleans 52

The PiRate Ratings were ready for publication Monday, but our captain, with loads of “oceanic” experience in search of robbing Las Vegans of their gold, gave the orders to hold off a couple days.  Our captain knew that the schedule for week 1 would more than likely change due to Ms. Irma of the Atlantic.

How ironic that this hurricane be named Irma.  Irma is an old name seldom seen these days and maybe after next week, joining Jedidiah, Japath, and other names not used any more.

The NFL schedule makers used to consider weather possibilities when creating the annual slate of games.  Not that Vince Lombardi ever needed the help, but Green Bay frequently began seasons with multiple home games early in the season, while Los Angeles played on the road more early in the season.  Then, when the weather turned raw, the Packers had more road games, while the Rams closed the season with more home games.  By this time, Green Bay had a gaudy won-loss record, while the already eliminated Rams played home games in a rather empty Los Angeles Coliseum, and coaches like Harland Svare suffered the consequences.

The Miami Dolphins and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers now face the task of having to play 16 games in 16 weeks, as Hurricane Irma has forced this Sunday’s opener to be postponed to Week 11.  Because the Dolphins already have one home game in London, it was not feasible that the team would move a second home game away from home.  The right thing for the players would have been to move the game to a location as close as possible without putting it in the path of the hurricane.  A large stadium like Legion Field in Birmingham might have been able to host this game, but this is not an NFL venue, and the NFL usually only relocates games to other NFL stadiums, because there are certain quality standards that must be set.

Moving the game to week 11, when by happenstance both teams have their regularly scheduled bye, is means the Dolphins will not play a real home game until October, and having to play 16 games in 16 weeks will most likely hurt both teams’ chances to make the playoffs this season.  With the concussion protocol rules, the chances of having a full roster of skill position players for 16 consecutive weeks is close to nil.  Players need an extra week off at some point in the meat of the schedule just to nurse the bumps and bruises that make every day life uncomfortable.  This is likely to cost both teams a win or two, as they will not be able to field a healthy roster when they most need a week off.

What you will see in our projected standings reflects what we think will happen.  Both teams were originally selected to become Wildcard Playoff participants before this happened.  Now, both teams are moved out of the playoffs.  The Dolphins are sacrificing the possibility of playoffs for the guarantee of a seventh home game.

2017 Opening NFL PiRate Ratings 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Buffalo 97.4 98.4 97.6 97.8 26
Miami 98.6 99.3 98.0 98.6 24
New England 107.1 107.8 106.9 107.2 20
N. Y. Jets 92.1 91.3 92.1 91.9 20
           
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Baltimore 100.7 101.1 100.8 100.8 19
Cincinnati 100.2 100.1 100.6 100.3 17
Cleveland 94.3 94.7 94.6 94.5 22
Pittsburgh 104.7 105.1 104.4 104.8 23
           
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Houston 99.9 100.4 99.4 99.9 15
Indianapolis 99.1 99.3 98.7 99.0 27
Jacksonville 95.2 95.1 95.1 95.1 22
Tennessee 99.4 99.7 98.9 99.3 25
           
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Denver 101.9 101.4 102.3 101.9 17
Kansas City 102.6 103.1 103.0 102.9 21
LA Chargers 100.4 99.4 100.6 100.1 29
Oakland 103.8 104.9 103.1 103.9 27
           
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Dallas 104.6 103.0 104.5 104.1 23
N.Y. Giants 102.6 102.8 102.6 102.7 14
Philadelphia 100.3 98.9 101.2 100.1 21
Washington 100.2 99.9 100.6 100.2 26
           
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Chicago 94.4 95.0 94.1 94.5 20
Detroit 99.3 100.6 99.0 99.7 21
Green Bay 103.5 104.7 102.9 103.7 29
Minnesota 99.3 99.9 99.5 99.6 17
           
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Atlanta 105.1 104.3 105.7 105.0 36
Carolina 100.2 99.3 100.3 99.9 26
New Orleans 100.5 98.7 100.8 100.0 35
Tampa Bay 100.9 99.9 101.3 100.7 22
           
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Arizona 101.2 101.3 101.2 101.2 26
LA Rams 94.9 95.2 94.8 95.0 16
San Francisco 92.9 92.5 92.9 92.8 26
Seattle 102.7 102.6 102.3 102.5 18

To estimate spreads, simply subtract the lower rated teams’ ratings from the higher rated teams’ rating.  Then, add your home field advantage of choice.  The PiRates use game specific advantages for each game.

To estimate the total points scored, simply add the two teams’ Totals numbers.

PiRate Ratings Preseason Playoff Projections 

AFC Seeding

1. New England

2. Oakland

3. Pittsburgh

4. Houston

5. Kansas City

6. Baltimore

 

NFC Seeding

1. Seattle

2. Green Bay

3. NY Giants

4. Atlanta

5. Arizona

6. Dallas

 

Wildcard Playoff Round

Pittsburgh over Baltimore

Kansas City over Houston

NY Giants over Dallas

Arizona over Atlanta

 

Divisional Playoff Round

New England over Kansas City

Oakland over Pittsburgh

Arizona over Seattle

Green Bay over NY Giants

 

Conference Championship Games

Oakland over New England

Green Bay over Arizona

 

Super Bowl 52

Oakland over Green Bay

January 4, 2017

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Wildcard Playoff Round: January 7-8, 2017

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:31 am

NFL Playoffs–Wildcard Round

Oakland Raiders (12-4-0) at Houston Texans (9-7-0)

Saturday, January 7, 4:35 PM EST

TV: ESPN

Las Vegas Line: Houston by 3 1/2,

Totals Line: 36 1/2

Note: Raiders’ rookie QB Connor Cook will start

Texans expect to start Brock Osweiler at QB who will play at less than 100%

PiRate Spread: Houston by 2.7

Mean Spread: Houston by 3.0

Bias Spread: Houston by 1.8

Totals Spread: 46 points

100 Simulations

Houston wins 77

Oakland wins 23

Average score: Houston 23  Oakland 18

Outlier A: Houston 41  Oakland 13

Outlier B: Oakland 34  Houston 16

 

Detroit Lions (9-7-0) at Seattle Seahawks (10-5-1)

Saturday, January 7, 8:15 PM EST

TV: NBC

Las Vegas Line: Seattle by 8

Totals Line: 43

PiRate Spread: Seattle by 8.6

Mean Spread: Seattle by 6.9

Bias Spread: Seattle by 9.3

Totals Spread: 43 points

100 Simulations

Seattle wins 86

Detroit wins 14

Average Score: Seattle 26  Detroit 16

Outlier A: Seattle 42  Detroit 13

Outlier B: Detroit 27  Seattle 20

 

Miami Dolphins (10-6-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5-0)

Sunday, January 8, 1:05 PM EST

TV: CBS

Note: Miami QB Ryan Tannehill is out for this game.  Matt Moore will start.

Las Vegas Spread: Pittsburgh by 10

Totals Spread: 47

PiRate Spread: Pittsburgh by 9.9

Mean Spread: Pittsburgh by 9.8

Bias Spread: Pittsburgh by 10.0

Totals Spread: 45 points

100 Simulations

Pittsburgh wins 73

Miami wins 27

Average Score: Pittsburgh 25  Miami 20

Outlier A: Pittsburgh 35  Miami 10

Outlier B: Miami 19  Pittsburgh 10

 

New York Giants (11-5-0) at Green Bay Packers (10-6-0)

Sunday, January 8, 4:40 PM EST

TV: Fox

Las Vegas Line: Green Bay by 5

Totals Line: 44 1/2

PiRate Spread: Green Bay by 5.6

Mean Spread: Green Bay by 6.1

Bias Spread: Green Bay by 5.0

Totals Spread: 57 points

100 simulations

Green Bay wins 59

New York wins 41

Average Score: Green Bay 26  New York 24

Outlier A: Green Bay 31  New York 13

Outlier B: New York 30  Green Bay 17

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