The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 11, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 11: November 14-18, 2019

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:15 pm

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

 

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Cleveland

Pittsburgh

2.9

2.7

2.2

Carolina

Atlanta

7.2

7.2

8.3

Detroit

Dallas

-3.7

-5.4

-4.4

Indianapolis

Jacksonville

4.2

4.6

3.9

Miami

Buffalo

-8.0

-8.4

-8.2

Baltimore

Houston

3.3

2.9

4.1

Minnesota

Denver

10.5

8.9

9.4

Washington

N.Y. Jets

1.9

2.1

2.7

Tampa Bay

New Orleans

-8.2

-3.7

-3.6

San Francisco

Arizona

14.2

14.6

14.3

Oakland

Cincinnati

8.9

9.2

9.6

Philadelphia

New England

-1.0

-3.6

-3.4

LA Rams

Chicago

5.9

7.5

7.6

LA Chargers (n)

Kansas City

1.4

1.0

1.0

Chargers – Chiefs game will be played in Mexico City

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New England

109.5

110.5

110.1

110.0

21.5

8-1

Buffalo

98.4

99.4

98.9

98.9

17

6-3

N. Y. Jets

91.8

92.6

91.4

91.9

21

2-7

Miami

88.0

88.4

88.2

88.2

25.5

2-7

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Baltimore

105.1

105.0

106.0

105.4

25

7-2

Pittsburgh

99.7

100.2

100.6

100.1

21

5-4

Cleveland

99.6

99.8

99.8

99.7

23

3-6

Cincinnati

91.6

91.2

91.5

91.4

24

0-9

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Houston

104.8

105.1

104.9

105.0

23

6-3

Indianapolis

99.4

100.2

99.7

99.8

22

5-4

Jacksonville

98.2

98.6

98.8

98.5

18.5

4-5

Tennessee

97.7

98.0

97.6

97.8

17.5

5-5

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

LA Chargers

101.5

101.4

100.9

101.2

21.5

4-6

Kansas City

100.0

100.4

99.9

100.1

31.5

6-4

Denver

99.4

99.6

99.4

99.5

18

3-6

Oakland

97.4

97.5

98.1

97.7

25.5

5-4

 

 

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Dallas

105.1

105.6

105.1

105.3

21.5

5-4

Philadelphia

105.6

103.9

103.7

104.4

25

5-4

N.Y. Giants

92.5

92.8

93.0

92.8

26

2-8

Washington

91.3

92.1

91.6

91.7

17.5

1-8

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Minnesota

106.9

105.5

105.8

106.1

22.5

7-3

Green Bay

103.3

103.4

103.7

103.5

25

8-2

Chicago

103.6

100.6

100.7

101.6

18

4-5

Detroit

98.9

97.7

98.2

98.3

25

3-5-1

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New Orleans

107.6

105.1

105.4

106.0

24

7-2

Carolina

100.6

100.8

101.3

100.9

25

5-4

Tampa Bay

96.4

98.4

98.8

97.9

29.5

3-6

Atlanta

96.5

96.6

96.0

96.3

26

2-7

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

San Francisco

106.2

107.1

107.4

106.9

24

8-1

LA Rams

106.5

105.1

105.3

105.6

26

5-4

Seattle

102.4

102.4

102.6

102.5

26

8-2

Arizona

94.5

94.9

95.6

95.0

23.5

3-6-1

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

 

AFC Seeding

1

New England

2

Baltimore

3

Houston

4

Oakland

5

Pittsburgh

6

Kansas City

 

 

NFC Seeding

1

Seattle

2

Green Bay

3

New Orleans

4

Philadelphia

5

San Francisco

6

Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round

Houston over Kansas City

Pittsburgh over Oakland

New Orleans over Minnesota

San Francisco over Philadelphia

 

 

Divisional Round

New England over Pittsburgh

Baltimore over Houston

Seattle over San Francisco

Green Bay over New Orleans

 

 

Conference Championship

New England over Baltimore

Seattle over Green Bay

 

 

Super Bowl 54

Seattle over New England

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 7, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For November 7-11, 2019

Welcome to Thursday Comedy Relief.  It’s official now: this is the worst season in the 21st Century for PiRate Picks.  As we always tell you, these picks are free and maybe not worth what you pay for them.  In past years, we have had better access to information that has been unavailable to us, and so these picks are not going to be as reliable as when we were actually winning consistently.

We know that some of you reading this have discovered the little “secret” system in our regular weekly ratings that through super computer programming, you can come up with a half-dozen or so picks that are rewarding you with better than 62% wins.  It’s so secret, that we do not know the real particulars, and we unwisely recommended that you not tell us how you are doing it, because it might be too tempting to try it ourselves and then lose our mortgage payments (figuratively, since we burned our mortgage some time ago).

This is the absolute best week for college football to date.  This week’s games between Alabama and LSU, preceded by Minnesota and Penn State, and including Baylor-TCU, Iowa State-Oklahoma, and even including the best FCS game of the year and the celebration of the 150th anniversary of college football–undefeated Princeton versus undefeated Dartmouth at Yankee Stadium, we know that a lot of you love to add a little excitement when watching these top games.

Please, please, please, disregard our selections when considering whether or not you will wager on these games.  We are hitting 48% in our selections this year.  That’s total crappy status.  You cannot win at 48%, because even if you wager the exact opposite, at 52% you still lose.  None of your reading this feature are one of those folks with the supercomputer winning on 63+% of the wagers that our ratings somehow pop up 6-10 games per week, and our selections below are not part of that system.

 

This Week’s PiRate Picks

College Games

10-point Teasers

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Florida St.

Boston College

11

Boston College

Ohio St.

Maryland

32

Ohio St.

Michigan St.

Illinois

24.5

Illinois

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Florida

Vanderbilt

16.5

Florida

Ole Miss

N. Mexico St.

38.5

N. Mexico St.

Kentucky

Tennessee

11

Tennessee

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Georgia

Ole Miss

6.5

Georgia

Virginia

Georgia Tech

26

Georgia Tech

BYU

Liberty

27

Liberty

 

13-Point Teasers

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Texas Tech

West Virginia

15.5

West Virginia

Miami (Fla.)

Louisville

19.5

Louisville

Wake Forest

Virginia Tech

15.5

Virginia Tech

Penn St.

Minnesota

20

Minnesota

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Northwestern

Purdue

15.5

Purdue

Charlotte

UTEP

Pk

Charlotte

Baylor

TCU

10.5

TCU

Oklahoma

Iowa St.

1.5

Oklahoma

 

College Money Line Parlay –4 games at +268

 

Winner

Loser

Louisiana Tech

North Texas

Fresno St.

Utah St.

Notre Dame

Duke

Washington

Oregon St.

 

NFL Games

13-Point Teasers

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

LA Chargers

Oakland

14.5

Oakland

New Orleans

Atlanta

Pk

New Orleans

Cincinnati

Baltimore

3

Baltimore

Carolina

Green Bay

8

Green Bay

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Chicago

Detroit

15.5

Detroit

Miami

Indianapolis

2.5

Indianapolis

N.Y. Jets

N.Y. Giants

10.5

N.Y. Giants

Tampa Bay

Arizona

17.5

Arizona

 

Money Line Parlay –2 Games at +149

 

Winner

Loser

N.Y. Giants

N.Y. Jets

Green Bay

Carolina

 

 

Davey19 Experimental Picks

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Louisiana

Coastal Carolina

14.5

Coastal Carolina

Michigan St.

Illinois

15

Illinois

Boise St.

Wyoming

13.5

Wyoming

Alabama

LSU

5.5

Alabama

Troy

Georgia Southern

3

Georgia Southern

Kentucky

Tennessee

1

Tennessee

Louisiana Tech

North Texas

5

Louisiana Tech

 

 

November 4, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 10: November 7-11, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

 

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Oakland

LA Chargers

-1.2

-1.1

0.0

Tennessee

Kansas City

-0.2

-0.3

-0.2

Cleveland

Buffalo

3.7

3.0

3.4

Tampa Bay

Arizona

5.1

7.1

7.0

N.Y. Jets

N.Y. Giants

-2.1

-1.8

-3.5

New Orleans

Atlanta

17.4

14.6

15.9

Cincinnati

Baltimore

-7.5

-7.5

-8.2

Green Bay

Carolina

5.4

5.2

4.8

Chicago

Detroit

6.6

4.7

4.1

Indianapolis

Miami

15.6

16.0

16.0

Pittsburgh

LA Rams

-5.9

-4.0

-4.0

Dallas

Minnesota

0.4

2.7

2.1

San Francisco

Seattle

7.4

8.7

9.2

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

 

Home

Visitor

Total

Oakland

LA Chargers

46.5

Tennessee

Kansas City

47

Cleveland

Buffalo

41

Tampa Bay

Arizona

53

N.Y. Jets

N.Y. Giants

46

New Orleans

Atlanta

51

Cincinnati

Baltimore

47.5

Green Bay

Carolina

51

Chicago

Detroit

43.5

Indianapolis

Miami

48.5

Pittsburgh

LA Rams

49

Dallas

Minnesota

43

San Francisco

Seattle

50

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New England

109.2

110.2

109.8

109.7

21.5

8-1

Buffalo

98.4

99.4

98.9

98.9

17.5

6-2

N. Y. Jets

91.2

92.0

90.6

91.3

20.5

1-7

Miami

87.6

87.9

87.6

87.7

26

1-7

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Baltimore

103.8

103.6

104.6

104.0

24

6-2

Cleveland

99.6

99.8

99.8

99.7

23.5

2-6

Pittsburgh

98.6

99.1

99.4

99.0

22

4-4

Cincinnati

93.9

93.6

93.9

93.8

23.5

0-8

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Houston

104.5

104.8

104.6

104.7

23

6-3

Indianapolis

100.1

101.0

100.6

100.6

22.5

5-3

Jacksonville

97.9

98.3

98.5

98.2

18.5

4-5

Tennessee

97.5

97.8

97.4

97.6

16.5

4-5

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

LA Chargers

101.6

101.5

101.0

101.3

21.5

4-5

Kansas City

100.2

100.6

100.1

100.3

30.5

6-3

Denver

99.1

99.3

99.1

99.2

18

3-6

Oakland

97.3

97.4

98.0

97.6

25

4-4

 

 

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Dallas

105.2

105.9

105.5

105.5

21

5-3

Philadelphia

105.3

103.6

103.4

104.1

25

5-4

N.Y. Giants

93.4

93.7

94.1

93.7

25.5

2-7

Washington

91.0

91.8

91.3

91.4

17.5

1-8

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Minnesota

106.8

105.2

105.4

105.8

22

6-3

Green Bay

103.2

103.2

103.4

103.3

25.5

7-2

Chicago

103.6

100.5

100.5

101.5

18.5

3-5

Detroit

98.9

97.8

98.4

98.4

25

3-4-1

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New Orleans

109.4

106.8

107.3

107.8

24.5

7-1

Carolina

100.7

101.0

101.6

101.1

25.5

5-3

Tampa Bay

96.5

98.7

99.2

98.1

29.5

2-6

Atlanta

95.0

95.2

94.4

94.8

26.5

1-7

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

San Francisco

106.5

107.6

108.1

107.4

24

8-0

LA Rams

107.5

106.1

106.4

106.7

27

5-3

Seattle

102.1

101.9

101.9

102.0

26

7-2

Arizona

94.4

94.6

95.2

94.7

23.5

3-5-1

 

NFL Playoff Projections

 

AFC Seeding

1

New England

2

Baltimore

3

Houston

4

Kansas City

5

Buffalo

6

Pittsburgh

 

NFC Seeding

1

San Francisco

2

New Orleans

3

Green Bay

4

Philadelphia

5

Seattle

6

LA Rams

 

Wildcard Round

Houston over Pittsburgh

Kansas City over Buffalo

Green Bay over LA Rams

Seattle over Philadelphia

 

 

Divisional Round

New England over Kansas City

Baltimore over Houston

San Francisco over Seattle

New Orleans over Green Bay

 

 

Conference Championship

New England over Baltimore

New Orleans over San Francisco

 

 

Super Bowl 54

New Orleans over New England

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

October 28, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 9: October 31-November 4, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Margins

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Arizona

San Francisco

-9.7

-10.9

-11.1

Jacksonville (n)

Houston

-4.1

-3.9

-3.0

Buffalo

Washington

9.8

9.6

9.5

Carolina

Tennessee

5.5

5.3

6.3

Philadelphia

Chicago

4.3

5.7

5.2

Kansas City

Minnesota

-4.2

-2.2

-3.1

Miami

N.Y. Jets

-3.6

-4.1

-3.2

Pittsburgh

Indianapolis

1.5

1.1

1.8

Oakland

Detroit

0.4

1.6

1.3

Seattle

Tampa Bay

9.6

7.2

6.9

Denver

Cleveland

2.1

1.8

1.5

LA Chargers

Green Bay

-2.8

-3.1

-4.2

Baltimore

New England

-6.0

-7.6

-6.2

N.Y. Giants

Dallas

-7.3

-7.3

-6.2

 

Totals

Home

Visitor

Total

Arizona

San Francisco

47

Jacksonville (n)

Houston

42.5

Buffalo

Washington

35

Carolina

Tennessee

41

Philadelphia

Chicago

44.5

Kansas City

Minnesota

52.5

Miami

N.Y. Jets

46.5

Pittsburgh

Indianapolis

43.5

Oakland

Detroit

49

Seattle

Tampa Bay

54.5

Denver

Cleveland

41.5

LA Chargers

Green Bay

48

Baltimore

New England

44

N.Y. Giants

Dallas

45.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New England

111.0

112.2

111.8

111.7

21

8-0

Buffalo

98.2

99.1

98.5

98.6

17.5

5-2

N. Y. Jets

92.3

93.2

91.9

92.5

20.5

1-6

Miami

86.8

87.0

86.6

86.8

26

0-7

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Baltimore

102.0

101.6

102.6

102.1

23

5-2

Cleveland

99.8

100.1

100.2

100.0

23.5

2-5

Pittsburgh

98.6

99.1

99.4

99.0

21.5

3-4

Cincinnati

93.6

93.3

93.6

93.5

23.5

0-8

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Houston

103.4

103.6

103.2

103.4

23.5

5-3

Indianapolis

100.1

101.0

100.6

100.6

22

5-2

Jacksonville

99.3

99.8

100.2

99.8

19

4-4

Tennessee

98.0

98.4

98.0

98.1

16

4-4

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Kansas City

99.9

100.3

99.7

100.0

30.5

5-3

LA Chargers

100.0

99.8

99.1

99.6

22

3-5

Denver

98.9

99.0

98.7

98.9

18

2-6

Oakland

96.8

96.9

97.4

97.0

24.5

3-4

 

 

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Dallas

104.4

105.0

104.4

104.6

20.5

4-3

Philadelphia

105.1

103.4

103.1

103.8

25.5

4-4

N.Y. Giants

94.2

94.6

95.2

94.7

25

2-6

Washington

91.5

92.4

92.0

92.0

17.5

1-7

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Minnesota

107.1

105.5

105.8

106.2

22

6-2

Green Bay

104.8

104.9

105.3

105.0

26

7-1

Chicago

103.8

100.7

100.8

101.8

19

3-4

Detroit

99.4

98.3

99.0

98.9

24.5

3-3-1

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New Orleans

109.1

106.5

107.0

107.5

24.5

7-1

Carolina

100.5

100.7

101.3

100.8

25

4-3

Tampa Bay

96.0

98.2

98.6

97.6

29

2-5

Atlanta

94.7

94.9

94.1

94.5

26.5

1-7

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

San Francisco

106.8

108.1

108.7

107.9

24

7-0

LA Rams

107.2

105.8

106.1

106.4

27

5-3

Seattle

102.6

102.4

102.5

102.5

25.5

7-1

Arizona

94.1

94.1

94.6

94.3

23

3-4-1

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding

1

New England

2

Indianapolis

3

Baltimore

4

Kansas City

5

Houston

6

Jacksonville

 

 

NFC Seeding

1

New Orleans

2

San Francisco

3

Green Bay

4

Dallas

5

Minnesota

6

LA Rams

 

Wildcard Round

Jacksonville over Baltimore

Houston over Kansas City

Green Bay over LA Rams

Minnesota over Dallas

 

Divisional Round

New England over Jacksonville

Indianapolis over Houston

New Orleans over Minnesota

San Francisco over Green Bay

 

Conference Championship

New England over Indianapolis

New Orleans over San Francisco

 

Super Bowl 54

New England over New Orleans

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

October 24, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For October 24-28, 2019

It couldn’t last.  Our winning streak ended soon after it began, and both the PiRate Picks and Experimental Davey19 picks fell to the losing side last week.  We’re back at it again hoping that maybe if you see a game you have thought about wagering real money on the outcome, you will see that we agree with you, and you will quickly forget playing that game.

Remember, the PiRates do not wager real money on football games, and we encourage you not to use our picks as handicapping aids if you happen to play for real.  These picks are free and are priced exactly where they need to be.

PiRate Picks

This week, we add a new twist that hasn’t been shown here in several years.  We are going to make a few 6-point teaser picks (2-game parlays @ 10-11 odds)

College 6-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Connecticut

Massachusetts

4

UConn

Memphis

Tulsa

4.5

Memphis

 

College 6-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Texas A&M

Mississippi St.

4.5

Texas A&M

Iowa

Northwestern

4

Iowa

 

College 6-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Miami (Fla.)

Pittsburgh

0.5

Pittsburgh

Arkansas St.

Texas St.

5.5

Arkansas St.

 

College 10-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

SMU

Houston

4

SMU

Central Michigan

Buffalo

7.5

Buffalo

Purdue

Illinois

20

Illinois

 

College 10-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Liberty

Rutgers

17

Rutgers

Rice

Southern Miss.

0.5

Southern Miss

Wyoming

Nevada

4

Wyoming

 

College 10-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Fresno St.

Colorado St.

4.5

Fresno St

Georgia Southern

N. Mexico St.

4.5

Ga. Southern

Iowa St.

Oklahoma St.

0.5

Iowa St.

 

College 10-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Ohio

Ball St.

7.5

Ball St.

Oklahoma

Kansas St.

13.5

Oklahoma

Minnesota

Maryland

6.5

Minnesota

 

College 10-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Texas

TCU

11.5

TCU

Ohio St.

Wisconsin

4.5

Ohio St.

LSU

Auburn

0.5

LSU

 

College 13-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Troy

Georgia St.

12

Georgia St.

Penn St.

Michigan St.

19.5

Michigan St.

Middle Tennessee

Florida Int’l.

10.5

Fla. Intl

South Carolina

Tennessee

17.5

Tennessee

 

NFL 10-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Minnesota

Washington

6.5

Minnesota

N.Y. Giants

Detroit

3

Detroit

Tampa Bay

Tennessee

7.5

Tennessee

 

NFL 10-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

LA Chargers

Chicago

6

Chicago

N.Y. Jets

Jacksonville

4

Jacksonville

Philadelphia

Buffalo

8.5

Buffalo

 

NFL 10-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

LA Rams

Cincinnati

3

LA Rams

New Orleans

Arizona

0.5

New Orleans

Oakland

Houston

3

Houston

 

NFL 10-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Denver

Indianapolis

4.5

Indianapolis

New England

Cleveland

3

New England

Miami

Pittsburgh

4.5

Pittsburgh

 

Davey19 Selections

College Picks Against The Spread

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Connecticut

Massachusetts

10

UMass

Purdue

Illinois

10

Illinois

Central Florida

Temple

11

Temple

Buffalo

Central Michigan

2.5

Buffalo

Liberty

Rutgers

7.5

Rutgers

Marshall

Western Kentucky

5

Western Kentucky

Iowa St.

Oklahoma St.

10.5

Oklahoma St.

Ball St.

Ohio

2.5

Ball St.

North Texas

Charlotte

4.5

Charlotte

 

Note: For those of you that play for real, please be aware that in both college and pro football this weekend, Miami is playing Pittsburgh at Heinz Stadium.  Don’t confuse the games on the card.

The Pitt Panthers and Miami of Florida Hurricanes face off Saturday at Noon Eastern Daylight Time.  The Steelers host the Dolphins on Monday Night at 8:20 PM Eastern Daylight Time.

 

And, as a reminder, next Sunday’s NFL games will kick off in Standard Time.  Daylight Savings Time goes to bed Sunday morning at 2 AM, November 3.  It never ceases to amaze us as to how many 9 to 5 workers fail to notice that one of their car’s headlights, taillights, brake lights, or signal lights is not working, until after the clocks are set back in the Fall, and they drive home from work in the dark. 

Please check all your lights before you turn your clock back an hour.  Darkness at 4:30 PM always leads to increased traffic accidents in large cities, so play it safe and prepare by becoming a better defensive driver.  The life you save, may be mine.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

October 16, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For October 17-21, 2019

Hooray, Hooray!  Maybe our little ditty we recited at the beginning of last week’s picks really worked!  That ditty went this way, “Yuck, Yuck, Yuck, I want more luck!”  It has to do with a childhood saying, and it worked then and apparently worked last week.

Both our PiRate Picks and Experimental Davey19 picks won.  The PiRate Picks enjoyed a windfall weekend with big wins.  Another 6 or 7 weeks in a row just like this, and we might even get back to level in our imaginary bank accounts.

While we have been trying to issue our money line parlay picks on Friday, we have a Thursday night game that is included in our selections, we have to issue those picks today as well.

Remember, the PiRates never wager real money on the outcomes of these games, and we also remind you that you frequently get what you pay for, and this is totally free.

 

PiRate Ratings Picks

 

10-point Teasers, 3 Game Parlays

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Louisiana

Arkansas St.

17

Arkansas St.

Ohio

Kent St.

17.5

Kent St.

Utah St.

Nevada

31

Nevada

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

California

Oregon St.

21

Oregon St.

Washington

Oregon

7

Oregon

South Carolina

Florida

15.5

Florida

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Louisiana Tech

Southern Miss.

9

Southern Miss.

Auburn

Arkansas

29

Arkansas

Virginia Tech

North Carolina

13.5

North Carolina

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Iowa St.

Texas Tech

17

Texas Tech

Rice

UTSA

14.5

UTSA

SMU

Temple

17.5

Temple

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Denver

Kansas City

7

Kansas City

N.Y. Giants

Arizona

13

Arizona

Houston

Indianapolis

10

Indianapolis

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Minnesota

Detroit

11

Detroit

Green Bay

Oakland

15.5

Oakland

LA Rams

Atlanta

13

Atlanta

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Seattle

Baltimore

13

Baltimore

Philadelphia

Dallas

7

Dallas

New England

N.Y. Jets

20.5

N.Y. Jets

 

 

Money Line Parlays

 

All 3-game parlays 

 

WIN

LOSE

Spread

Oregon

Washington

Penn St.

Michigan

+188

Western Ky.

Charlotte

 

 

WIN

LOSE

Spread

North Carolina

Virginia Tech

Western Mich.

Eastern Mich.

+193

Boise St.

BYU

 

 

WIN

LOSE

Spread

Stanford

UCLA

Florida

South Carolina

+224

Georgia Southern

Coastal Carolina

 

Davey19 Experimental Picks

 

Margins Plays

Pick

Opponent

Spread

Kent St.

Ohio

+7.5

Boise St.

BYU

-6.5

Oregon

Washington

-2.5

Florida

South Carolina

-4.5

North Carolina

Va Tech

-3

Hawaii

AFA

+3

Houston

Indianapolis

+1

Oakland

Green Bay

+5.5

Washington

San Francisco

+10.5

LA Chargers

Tennessee

+2.5

 

Totals Plays

 

Team

Team

Total

Pick

UCLA

Stanford

52.5

Under

Georgia Tech

Miami (Fla.)

46

Under

Florida St.

Wake Forest

69

Under

North Carolina

Virginia Tech

57

Under

Tennessee

LA Chargers

40

Under

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

October 14, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 7: October 17-21, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Denver

Kansas City

-0.8

-0.9

-0.4

N.Y. Giants

Arizona

4.0

4.2

4.3

Indianapolis

Houston

-2.3

-1.7

-2.1

Buffalo

Miami

16.6

18.0

18.1

Detroit

Minnesota

-4.1

-3.1

-2.4

Green Bay

Oakland

9.7

9.5

9.2

Cincinnati

Jacksonville

-1.2

-1.8

-1.4

Atlanta

LA Rams

-5.8

-3.6

-3.7

Washington

San Francisco

-10.2

-10.5

-11.5

Tennessee

LA Chargers

1.4

1.5

2.2

Seattle

Baltimore

5.5

5.8

5.0

Chicago

New Orleans

2.3

2.0

2.1

Dallas

Philadelphia

-0.1

2.7

2.3

N.Y. Jets

New England

-13.0

-13.0

-13.7

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New England

109.3

110.4

109.9

109.9

21.5

6-0

Buffalo

99.8

101.2

100.8

100.6

18

4-1

N. Y. Jets

93.8

94.9

93.7

94.1

21.5

1-4

Miami

86.2

86.2

85.7

86.0

26

0-5

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Baltimore

100.7

100.2

101.1

100.7

23

4-2

Cleveland

99.5

99.8

99.9

99.7

23.5

2-4

Pittsburgh

98.5

99.0

99.3

98.9

21.5

2-4

Cincinnati

94.4

94.2

94.8

94.5

24

0-6

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Houston

104.5

104.8

104.6

104.7

23

4-2

Indianapolis

99.2

100.1

99.5

99.6

22

3-2

Jacksonville

98.1

98.5

98.7

98.4

19

2-4

Tennessee

97.9

98.2

97.9

98.0

15

2-4

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Kansas City

104.2

104.6

103.9

104.2

31

4-2

Denver

100.5

100.7

100.5

100.6

19.5

2-4

LA Chargers

99.5

99.7

98.7

99.3

21.5

2-4

Oakland

97.1

97.2

97.8

97.4

23.5

3-2

 

 

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Philadelphia

105.3

103.2

102.9

103.8

25.5

3-3

Dallas

102.2

102.9

102.2

102.4

20.5

3-3

N.Y. Giants

94.7

95.2

95.8

95.2

24.5

2-4

Washington

91.1

92.1

91.5

91.6

19

1-5

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Minnesota

106.6

104.7

105.0

105.5

21.5

4-2

Green Bay

103.8

103.7

104.0

103.8

25

5-1

Chicago

105.9

102.5

102.9

103.8

19

3-2

Detroit

100.0

99.1

100.1

99.8

23

2-2-1

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New Orleans

106.6

103.5

103.8

104.6

23.5

5-1

Carolina

102.0

102.2

103.0

102.4

24.5

4-2

Tampa Bay

95.6

97.9

98.3

97.3

28.5

2-4

Atlanta

96.5

97.0

96.4

96.6

27.5

1-5

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

San Francisco

104.3

105.6

106.0

105.3

23.5

5-0

LA Rams

105.3

103.6

103.7

104.2

28

3-3

Seattle

103.2

103.0

103.1

103.1

25.5

5-1

Arizona

93.7

94.0

94.5

94.1

23.5

2-3-1

 

Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding

1

New England

2

Houston

3

Kansas City

4

Baltimore

5

Buffalo

6

Indianapolis

 

 

NFC Seeding

1

San Francisco

2

New Orleans

3

Green Bay

4

Philadelphia

5

Seattle

6

Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round

Kansas City over Indianapolis

Buffalo over Baltimore

Green Bay over Minnesota

Seattle over Philadelphia

 

 

Divisional Round

New England over Buffalo

Houston over Kansas City

San Francisco over Seattle

New Orleans over Green Bay

 

 

Conference Championship

New England over Houston

San Francisco over New Orleans

 

 

Super Bowl 54

San Francisco over New England

 

 

 

October 7, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 6: October 10-14, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

New England

N. Y. Giants

17.1

17.6

16.1

Tampa Bay

Carolina

-3.1

-0.4

-0.6

Baltimore

Cincinnati

9.9

9.7

10.2

Cleveland

Seattle

-0.5

0.0

0.0

Kansas City

Houston

4.2

4.5

4.2

Jacksonville

New Orleans

-6.0

-2.1

-2.0

Minnesota

Philadelphia

2.1

2.1

2.6

Miami

Washington

-3.1

-4.5

-4.5

LA Rams

San Francisco

7.4

4.0

3.9

Arizona

Atlanta

0.2

0.0

1.2

N. Y. Jets

Dallas

-6.4

-6.2

-7.1

Denver

Tennessee

3.2

3.0

2.9

LA Chargers

Pittsburgh

5.7

5.7

4.4

Green Bay

Detroit

5.9

7.2

6.3

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

Home

Visitor

Total

New England

N. Y. Giants

46

Tampa Bay

Carolina

52

Baltimore

Cincinnati

47.5

Cleveland

Seattle

48

Kansas City

Houston

54

Jacksonville

New Orleans

44

Minnesota

Philadelphia

45

Miami

Washington

46.5

LA Rams

San Francisco

53

Arizona

Atlanta

48

N. Y. Jets

Dallas

42

Denver

Tennessee

36.5

LA Chargers

Pittsburgh

43

Green Bay

Detroit

48

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New England

109.0

110.1

109.4

109.5

21.5

5-0

Buffalo

99.5

100.9

100.5

100.3

18

4-1

N. Y. Jets

93.3

94.3

92.9

93.5

21.5

0-4

Miami

86.1

85.9

85.3

85.8

26.5

0-4

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Baltimore

101.1

100.7

101.7

101.2

23

3-2

Cleveland

99.6

99.9

100.0

99.8

23

2-3

Pittsburgh

97.6

98.0

98.3

97.9

21.5

1-4

Cincinnati

94.3

94.0

94.5

94.3

24.5

0-5

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Houston

103.9

104.1

103.8

104.0

23

3-2

Tennessee

99.3

99.7

99.5

99.5

16.5

2-3

Indianapolis

98.9

99.8

99.2

99.3

22

3-2

Jacksonville

98.1

98.7

99.0

98.6

20

2-3

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Kansas City

105.1

105.6

105.0

105.2

31

4-1

LA Chargers

100.9

101.2

100.2

100.7

21.5

2-3

Denver

99.6

99.7

99.4

99.6

20

1-4

Oakland

96.8

96.9

97.5

97.1

23.5

3-2

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Philadelphia

106.1

104.1

103.9

104.7

24.5

3-2

Dallas

102.7

103.5

103.0

103.1

20.5

3-2

N.Y. Giants

95.0

95.5

96.3

95.6

24.5

2-3

Washington

91.7

92.9

92.4

92.3

20

0-5

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Minnesota

105.2

103.2

103.4

104.0

20.5

3-2

Green Bay

103.5

103.6

103.8

103.6

25

4-1

Chicago

105.6

102.2

102.6

103.5

19

3-2

Detroit

100.0

98.9

100.0

99.7

23

2-1-1

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New Orleans

106.6

103.3

103.5

104.5

24

4-1

Carolina

101.6

101.5

102.2

101.8

24

3-2

Tampa Bay

96.0

98.6

99.1

97.9

28

2-3

Atlanta

96.5

97.0

96.4

96.6

26

1-4

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

LA Rams

107.0

105.1

105.3

105.8

29

3-2

San Francisco

102.6

104.1

104.4

103.7

24

4-0

Seattle

103.1

102.9

103.0

103.0

25

4-1

Arizona

93.7

94.0

94.5

94.1

22

1-3-1

 

Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding

1

New England

2

Kansas City

3

Houston

4

Baltimore

5

Indianapolis

6

Buffalo

NFC Seeding

1

San Francisco

2

New Orleans

3

Green Bay

4

Philadelphia

5

Seattle

6

Minnesota

Wildcard Round

Buffalo over Houston

Indianapolis over Baltimore

Green Bay over Minnesota

Philadelphia over Seattle

 

 

Divisional Round

New England over Buffalo

Kansas City over Indianapolis

Philadelphia over San Francisco

New Orleans over Green Bay

 

 

Conference Championship

New England over Kansas City

New Orleans over Philadelphia

 

 

Super Bowl 54

New England over New Orleans

 

 

 

 

 

October 3, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For October 3-7, 2019

Yet another week went by with mixed results here on the PiRate ship.  Our original picks began the weekend on a high note, as we hit on outright Money Line upsets by Duke and by Baylor.  Indiana even looked promising for awhile, before Michigan State proved too much for the Hoosiers.  Then, what we gained on Saturday, we gave back on Sunday.

The Davey19 experimental system had another successful week, bringing the total for the year back into the black.  When we use this formula, many times we look at the plays and feel apprehensive about publishing them, but they have proven to be winners so far this year.

Today, our concentration is more on the number and less on the teams involved.  Certainly, the teams involve matter, as getting 7 1/2 points for a winless team wouldn’t be worth a hoot against a top 5 team.  But, when it comes to games that are not considered blowout games, we are going to go heavy on the ones that cross multiple frequent numbers most prevalent in football outcomes.

By the way, do you know which numbers we speak of?  There are separate sets of numbers for college and for NFL games.  Let’s look at college first.

About 35% of all FBS football games end with the winner beating the loser by 3, 4, 7, 10, 14, 17, or 21 points.  Those 7 margins make up better than 1/3 of all game outcomes.  When we refer to crossing numbers, this means we can play a teaser of 6, 6 1/2, 7, 10, or 13 points and cross multiple frequent margins.

For example, let’s say that Team A is listed as a 2 1/2 point underdog to Team B.  If we were to play Team A in a 10-point teaser as part of a 3-game parlay, we’d be allowed to move that spread from 2 1/2 to 12 1/2.  Doing so crosses 3, 4, 7, and 10, four of the most frequent margins in football games.  Crossing four numbers is quite nice.  

If Team B is a favorite over Team A by 2 1/2 and you play Team A in a 6-point, 2-game teaser, you can make Team A go from a 2 1/2 point to an 8 1/2 point underdog, crossing 3, 4, and 7.  In this instance crossing three frequent margins is wonderful when only having to win two games on a parlay.

When it comes to NFL games, the frequency of margins has changed quite a bit since 2015, when the extra point attempt was moved back to the 18 yard line and more teams began going for two-point conversions.

Today’s NFL sees a lot of games decided by 5 or 6 points.  Prior to 2015, more games ended by 10 and 4 points than today.  The advantage is now more in the smart bettor’s favor than it used to be.  42% of all NFL games end with a margin of 3, 4, 5. 6, or 7 points.  So, being able to cross these five margins in a teaser is an incredible opportunity if you can find a tossup game and tease it past that magical number 7.  Or, if you think you have a team that is a sure outright winner and is favored by more than 7 points, if you can tease that number to 2 1/2 or less, you are gaining a large advantage.  Professional gambling author John Ferguson, known by the nom deplum of Stanford Wong made the Teaser play that moves through 3 and 7 point margins quite famous, and today, this is called a Wong Teaser.  Wong’s favorite teaser play was a 6-point tease of favorites of 7 1/2, 8, or 8 1/2 points down to 1 1/2, 2, or 2 1/2 points, and a 6-point tease of underdogs of 1 1/2, 2, or 2 1/2 points to 7 1/2, 8, or 8 1/2 points.

When Ferguson made big money betting these types of teasers, the books offered much fairer odds on them, until more people picked up on this and began to win too much.  Now, you can get -110 odds on 2-game, 6-point teasers.  You have to put up $11 for every $10 the books put up.  We are not in the business of advertising for any company, so we won’t tell you the name, but if you do your research, you can still find a place where a 2-game, 6-point teaser has +100 odds, which means they put up dollar for dollar what you put up.

We have heard from a few of you that anxiously await these picks to come out every Thursday morning in the Central US.  Hopefully, you heed our advice and never wager real money on our published suggestions (And if you do, maybe it is to convince you not to play the games we picked!).

Even though our Davey19 experimental program is showing a profit for the year, the number of weeks it has been tried is still too small to mean much.  Our regular system had a multi-year run of success, but this year, it stinks.  So, just because Davey19 has a multi-week run of success, it could just as easily stink this week.  

Let’s get on with it.  Here are our selections for the week.  Once again–we never wager real money on these picks.  We are math geeks, and numbers are our friends.  We will make a statement that some people have taught their children how to love math by using applications like this and others using money to teach them how important math is.

 

PiRate Ratings Picks

 

10-point Teasers

 

#1

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Duke

Pittsburgh

15

Pittsburgh

Toledo

Western Michigan

12

Western Michigan

Ole Miss

Vanderbilt

17 1/2

Vanderbilt

Our feeling on this one is that Pittsburgh is vastly underrated with close losses to Penn State and Virginia.  Their listless win over Delaware can be excused as a sandwich game between the big upset of Central Florida and the conference game with Duke.

We believe that Western Michigan has about a 55-60% chance of winning this game outright, so making Toledo a double-digit favorite entices us to take the Broncos in this one.

An admission: we typically never play either way on a game involving Vanderbilt.  Our captain has inside connections with the program, and he feels that it wouldn’t be right to issue picks either way on the Commodores.  However, this week, this game becomes a prime pick, and the Captain has no inside information here.  This is purely a comparison of personnel, as well as production so far.  The Captain says that Vanderbilt’s opening troika of games with Northern Illinois in Game 4 basically made it a certainty that they would open 1-3 and become devalued.  Ole Miss’s defense is going to suffer a letdown against the Vanderbilt offense.  The Rebels have reached that point where the players pretty much know that the season is going to head south in October and November.  Meanwhile, Vanderbilt has a gimme game next week with UNLV and will not be looking forward past the next play in this game.  Ole Miss must play at Missouri, against Texas A&M, and at Auburn the next three weeks.  With LSU and Mississippi State coming at the end of the year, the chances of making it to bowl eligibility are about 1-2%.  Vanderbilt must win this game so that the UNLV game next week really matters.  A win Saturday virtually guarantees getting back to .500 the next week and with three definitely winnable games left on the schedule.  The SEC needs one of the bottom five teams to step up and gain bowl eligibility, and unless Missouri wins their challenge to ineligibility before December, the Commodores have the most favorable path to 6-6.

 

#2

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Florida

Auburn

7 1/2

Auburn

Miami (Fla.)

Virginia Tech

4

Miami

Oklahoma St.

Texas Tech

Pk

Oklahoma St.

 

We have been looking at the Florida-Auburn game since last Saturday night.  Our statistics and schedule strength show Auburn to be a legitimate touchdown or more favorite in this game, so getting more than that magical 7 points is quite appealing.

Teasing Miami from two touchdowns to 4 points brings us through the numbers 14, 10, and 7, and until Virginia Tech looks like a team with players that care, we will always look at teasing in their opponents’ favor.

Oklahoma State should beat Texas Tech 8 out of 10 times, so we are hoping that getting the Cowboys as a Pick’em will work, and this won’t be one of those two other times.

 

#3

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Penn St.

Purdue

18

Penn St.

Iowa

Michigan

6 1/2

Michigan

Washington

Stanford

6 1/2

Washington

 

We are not the type of player that plays a 4-touchdown favorite over a conference opponent, but with Purdue’s injury issues, we almost went with Penn State in a straight play at -28 over the Boilermakers.  However, we went the safer route and teased this under 21 points.  James Franklin may call off the dogs and allow PU a backdoor cover, but 18 points feels safe.

The Iowa-Michigan game was one of those really tough calls.  We hoped Iowa would pick up a little more Sharp support being undefeated, while Michigan has not won any big games under Jim Harbaugh.  Alas,  not enough Sharp money came in on Iowa, and the margin didn’t move to the 2 1/2 points we wanted.  We still like this number giving Michigan 6 1/2 points to play with, which does move the margin through two crucial numbers.  The fact that our ratings show that Michigan has about a 60% chance of winning the game, we’ll take the 6 1/2 points like it is bonus points for the true spread.

We get to move through 14, 10, and 7 in the Washington-Stanford game, and in our analysis, we believe the Huskies can blow the Cardinal off the field.  As a matter of fact, the Davey19 formula could be used to take UW outright at -16 1/2, but it was so close that we did not include it in this week’s Davey19 picks.

 

#4

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Tulane

Army

13

Army

Kansas St.

Baylor

12

Baylor

Nebraska

Northwestern

17 1/2

Northwestern

 

Tulane has become the sexy new Group of 5 favorite among the media, especially the ladies and gentlemen at ESPN and Fox Sports.  Army has yet to fire on all cylinders this year, but we don’t see the Green Wave going to West Point and winning by two touchdowns.

The Kansas State-Baylor game is strictly a numbers’ play.  Moving 2 to 12 goes through 3, 4, 7, and 10.  We don’t particularly love Baylor’s chances of winning after the emotional home upset of Iowa State, but 12 points from 2 are too much to turn down.

The same thing applies to Nebraska and Northwestern.  Neither team looks strong enough to blow out the other.  17 1/2 moves the spread through 10, 14, and 17, and in addition, we think the Cornhuskers should be favored by about 4 points.  So, this becomes more like a 13-point tease at a 10-point price.

 

#5

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Ohio

Buffalo

13

Buffalo

Iowa St.

TCU

13

TCU

Western Kentucky

Old Dominion

13 1/2

Old Dominion

 

These three plays are 100% about the numbers and not the teams after you factor in that these games are fairly evenly matched.  Ohio has been a disappointment so far, but their schedule has been a bit more than the Bobcats could handle to this point.  Additionally, this is a major revenge game for Buffalo, and it is a must-win game if the Bulls are to remain alive in the MAC-East.  Moving the line through 4, 7, and 10 is just gravy.

Iowa State and TCU might split 10 games, so getting the Horned Frogs and 13 is another great numbers’ play.

Western Kentucky has moved up from near the bottom to near the top in the CUSA East Division race, and the big upset over UAB last week means the Hilltoppers are now a contender in the division race.  However, teams that pull off big home upsets in conference games that go on the road the next week as a road favorite in a conference game have poor records covering the spread.  WKU may win this game, but not by two touchdowns.  

 

#6

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

UTSA

UTEP

11 1/2

UTEP

North Carolina

Georgia Tech

1/2

North Carolina

Rice

UAB

1

UAB

 

UTSA and UTEP could combine their rosters and still struggle to finish 3-9, so when one of these weak teams can be forced into a double-digit situation that crosses all the lower key numbers (3, 4, 7, and 10), we jump on this one.

Teasing the Tar Heels is the only way to go in this game.  North Carolina will bounce some after falling short against Clemson, but Georgia Tech is likely to go 0-8 in ACC play this year trying to move from the triple option philosophy to the standard style of play.  That’s usually a three-year transition process.  We’ll put enough faith in Mack Brown to get his Carolina team ready enough to win this game, even if just by a couple points.

The Rice-UAB spread should probably be larger than it is, and we were enticed to look twice at playing UAB straight up.  Teasing the Blazers into an underdog is too good to pass up in this one.

 

13-point Teaser

#7

Team

Team

Total

Pick

Arizona

Cincinnati

34

Over

Minnesota

N.Y. Giants

30 1/2

Over

Tennessee

Buffalo

25 1/2

Over

San Francisco

Cleveland

33 1/2

Over

 

We had to choose one 13-point teaser and go with NFL Totals.  It can be hard to find action in a 13-point teaser of totals, but it is possible, so we are going with one.

The reasoning behind this play is that NFL games have smaller standard deviations of point totals in games.  The books have to be careful with totals that are too low in an environment where offenses have the advantage over defenses.  Thus, moving them by 13 points back in the direction where they probably need to be makes these games enticing.  Other than that, we don’t have a lot else to go on in these plays.  We chose these four games because our own internal ratings show that all four games should be played in the 38-45 point total range.

Davey19

Davey19 is a mechanical system using multiple rules that would take much too long to explain.  And, if it proves to be successful, we aren’t about to explain it to the rest of the world.

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Kansas St.

Baylor

1

Kansas St.

Eastern Michigan

Central Michigan

5 1/2

Eastern Michigan

SMU

Tulsa

13 1/2

Tulsa

Auburn

Florida

2 1/2

Auburn

LSU

Utah St.

28

Utah St.

Carolina

Jacksonville

3 1/2

Jacksonville

Kansas City

Indianapolis

11 1/2

Indianapolis

New England

Washington

15 1/2

Washington

Philadelphia

N. Y. Jets

14 1/2

N.Y. Jets

 

 

 

 

September 30, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 5: October 3-7, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

 

Margins

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Seattle

LA Rams

-1.1

0.8

0.7

Pittsburgh

Baltimore

-1.0

-0.3

-0.9

Oakland (n)

Chicago

-10.6

-7.1

-6.8

Cincinnati

Arizona

5.3

4.7

4.9

Carolina

Jacksonville

6.5

5.7

6.2

N.Y. Giants

Minnesota

-5.1

-2.0

-1.0

Washington

New England

-12.7

-12.3

-11.9

Philadelphia

N.Y. Jets

12.2

8.7

9.9

New Orleans

Tampa Bay

14.2

7.7

7.4

Houston

Atlanta

7.5

6.7

6.8

Tennessee

Buffalo

5.5

4.6

5.1

LA Chargers

Denver

6.6

7.0

6.5

Dallas

Green Bay

5.2

6.0

5.5

Kansas City

Indianapolis

12.5

12.3

12.5

San Francisco

Cleveland

1.5

2.6

2.7

 

Totals

Home

Visitor

Total

Seattle

LA Rams

53

Pittsburgh

Baltimore

44.5

Oakland (n)

Chicago

42.5

Cincinnati

Arizona

46.5

Carolina

Jacksonville

42

N.Y. Giants

Minnesota

45.5

Washington

New England

41.5

Philadelphia

N.Y. Jets

47

New Orleans

Tampa Bay

52

Houston

Atlanta

46

Tennessee

Buffalo

36

LA Chargers

Denver

42.5

Dallas

Green Bay

44.5

Kansas City

Indianapolis

54.5

San Francisco

Cleveland

48

 

(n)–Oakland vs. Chicago game played in London

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New England

108.1

109.1

108.3

108.5

21.5

4-0

Buffalo

97.9

99.3

98.7

98.6

18.5

3-1

N. Y. Jets

94.7

96.0

94.6

95.1

22.5

0-3

Miami

85.8

85.6

85.0

85.5

26.5

0-4

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Cleveland

101.7

102.0

102.2

102.0

23.5

2-2

Baltimore

101.1

100.7

101.7

101.2

23

2-2

Pittsburgh

97.6

98.0

98.3

97.9

21.5

1-3

Cincinnati

95.4

95.1

95.7

95.4

24.5

0-4

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Houston

102.7

102.7

102.3

102.6

21.5

2-2

Tennessee

100.4

100.8

100.8

100.7

17.5

2-2

Jacksonville

98.1

98.8

99.0

98.6

19

2-2

Indianapolis

97.1

97.9

97.2

97.4

23

2-2

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Kansas City

106.6

107.2

106.7

106.8

31.5

4-0

LA Chargers

102.5

102.9

102.0

102.4

22

2-2

Denver

98.4

98.4

98.0

98.3

20.5

0-4

Oakland

95.7

95.9

96.5

96.0

23.5

2-2

 

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Dallas

103.9

104.8

104.4

104.4

20

3-1

Philadelphia

105.0

102.7

102.5

103.4

24.5

2-2

N.Y. Giants

96.2

97.0

98.0

97.1

24.5

2-2

Washington

93.0

94.3

93.9

93.7

20

0-4

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Chicago

106.4

102.9

103.3

104.2

19

3-1

Minnesota

104.3

102.0

102.0

102.8

21

2-2

Green Bay

101.8

101.8

101.9

101.8

24.5

3-1

Detroit

99.7

98.6

99.7

99.4

23

2-1-1

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New Orleans

106.9

103.3

103.5

104.6

24

3-1

Carolina

101.6

101.4

102.2

101.7

23

2-2

Atlanta

98.3

99.0

98.5

98.6

24.5

1-3

Tampa Bay

95.7

98.6

99.1

97.8

28

2-2

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

LA Rams

107.1

105.1

105.3

105.8

28.5

3-1

Seattle

103.0

102.9

103.0

103.0

24.5

3-1

San Francisco

100.2

101.7

101.9

101.3

24.5

3-0

Arizona

93.1

93.4

93.8

93.4

22

0-3-1

 

Playoff Projections

 

AFC Seeding

1

New England

2

Kansas City

3

Cleveland

4

Jacksonville

5

Buffalo

6

LA Chargers

 

 

NFC Seeding

1

Seattle

2

New Orleans

3

Chicago

4

Philadelphia

5

LA Rams

6

Green Bay

 

Wildcard Round

LA Chargers over Cleveland

Buffalo over Jacksonville

Chicago over Green Bay

LA Rams over Philadelphia

 

 

Divisional Round

New England over LA Chargers

Kansas City over Buffalo

LA Rams over Seattle

Chicago over New Orleans

 

 

Conference Championship

Kansas City over New England

Chicago over LA Rams

 

 

Super Bowl 53

Kansas City over Chicago

 

 

 

 

 

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