The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 12, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for December 15-21 Bowls and NFL Week 15

The Return of the Land Sharps

After taking a week off to regroup, our five Land Sharps are ready to return to their hopefully winning ways after ending the season on a sour note.  As bowl season begins, Cal Gal Tiffany has opened a commanding lead in return on investment, maintaining a healthy double digit percentage profit that has been rather consistent for the last several weeks.  Tiffany admits that she knows more about numbers than football strategy, so maybe we can learn something from her.  She likes underdogs, and she likes numbers that are a half-point higher than typical game outcomes.  In other words, she has played a lot of 3 1/2, 7 1/2, 10 1/2, 14 1/2, and 17 1/2 point underdogs this year.  Tiffy believes the books know what they are doing in setting the lines, and there is no way she can outsmart them by trying to figure out which team is better or worse than the line.  She goes simply by the numbers, and it has helped her take a large lead in our little contest.

Stewed Meat is in second place, but Stewed has been playing the B-team of selections this year, because Stewed plays other picks for real and does well enough to make it a full-time profession in Nevada.

Buckeye Michelle is very unhappy.  She believes Ohio State is the only team that can beat Alabama, and her Buckeyes will not get that chance.  She also is unhappy, because she was in first place at the start of November and now has a record just above .500 with no profit.  Michelle and Tiffany are friendly rivals who have known each other for 10 years, and Tiffy has given Michie the business in recent weeks.  Now to make you more unhappy–these two ladies are what you would call “smokin’ hot” and unfortunately,  for all but two of the male gender, are taken.  The funny thing is their guys are not really into football, as they follow the Cleveland Indians and Oakland Athletics and nothing else.  It’s the two ladies that occupy their woman caves to watch their games.

Dean615 was in the lead for a few weeks, but Dean says that a heavy November schedule made it hard to find time to study.  Dean says that he has had ample time to study the bowls.  Dean is the ex-football player who played in three bowl games and knows what it is like and believes he knows which teams are there to play and which just want to collect their bling packages and start their off seasons.

Friday Dog 13 is the renegade of our Land Sharps.  He has played a lot more favorites than underdogs, and it worked until No Fave November.  The Autumn winds raided his bank account, and sent him into the red at the wrong time of the year.  Friday Dog has had extracurricular issues this Autumn and also has not had a ton of time to devote to the lines as of late, but he should be able to study the bowls with more time.  You will see his theme in his first set of picks.  He is a fan of Mid-America.

And what about the PiRates themselves?  We have been contrarians to the Land Sharps.  When the Land Sharps began the season hot and profitable, the PiRates were sinking like rocks.  Then, after we noticed that our NFL teaser picks kept winning consistently, we began to add more teaser selections, and the last 5 weeks have been somewhat profitable.  Hopefully, this isn’t the kiss of death talking about it and including more of these selections.

Let’s start with the Land Sharps and their picks for the first week of bowl games.  All five made three selections.  Four of the five took the same team, and three of the five took another team, so take this for what you believe it is worth.  Also, a majority of the picks were on the underdogs.

#1) Cal Gal Tiffany

Season: 40-30-0 57.1%

Return on Investment: 10.0%

Georgia Southern -1 1/2 vs. Eastern Michigan

Western Michigan +12 1/2 vs. BYU

Tulane -3 1/2 vs. Louisiana

 

#2) Stewed Meat

Season: 38-32-3  54.3%

Return on Investment: 3.8%

North Texas +8 vs. Utah St.

Middle Tennessee +7 1/2 vs. Appalachian St.

Western Michigan +12 1/2 vs. BYU

 

#3) Buckeye Michelle

Season: 33-30-1  52.4%

Return on Investment: 0.0%

San Diego St. +3 vs. Ohio U

Tulane -3 1/2 vs. Louisiana

Western Michigan +12 1/2 vs. BYU

 

#4) Dean615

Season: 31-29-2  51.7%

Return on Investment: -1.5%

South Florida +2 1/2 vs. Marshall

Tulane -3 1/2 vs. Louisiana

Western Michigan +12 1/2 vs. BYU

 

#5) Friday Dog 13

Season: 36-35-1  50.7%

Return on Investment: -3.5%

Northern Illinois +2 1/2 vs. UAB

Toledo -5 1/2 vs. Florida International

Ohio U -2 1/2 vs. San Diego St.

 

The PiRate Rating Picks

For the bowl season, we have been experimenting with playing the underdogs with money line selections.  It is our hypothesis that if one plays the same amount on every bowl game by taking the underdog and the best money line odds you can get, that it could be very profitable.  Since we play with imaginary currency in an imaginary bank account, it does not hurt to play $100 on every bowl game by taking the underdog and finding the best odds.  If we lose every game, we are out $0, and if it wins, and returns a profit, then maybe the public will have knowledge for the future.  Therefore, you will see us picking the underdog to win every bowl game (not playoffs) this year and shopping for the best odds.

Here are the selections for the first week of games.

Favorite Underdog Moneyline Pick
Tulane Louisiana +155 Louisiana
Utah St. North Texas +275 North Texas
Fresno St. Arizona St. +167 Arizona St.
Georgia Southern Eastern Michigan +120 Eastern Michigan
Appalachian St. Middle Tennessee +235 Middle Tennessee
UAB Northern Illinois +125 Northern Illinois
Ohio U San Diego St. +135 San Diego St.
Marshall South Florida +125 South Florida
Toledo Florida Int’l. +195 Florida Int’l.
BYU Western Michigan +400 Western Michigan

NFL Teaser Picks to date:  26-12  68.4%

NFL 
10-point Teasers
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Chicago Green Bay 17 Green Bay
Minnesota Miami 17.5 Miami
Baltimore Tampa Bay 19.5 Tampa Bay
 

 

Team Team Total Pick
Kansas City L.A. Chargers 43 Over
Chicago Green Bay 35 Over
Minnesota Miami 34.5 Over

 

NFL 
13-point Teasers
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Detroit Buffalo 15.5 Buffalo
Tampa Bay Baltimore 5 Baltimore
Atlanta Arizona 23 Arizona
Cincinnati Oakland 16 Oakland
 

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
San Francisco Seattle 8.5 Seattle
New England Pittsburgh 14.5 Pittsburgh
Philadelphia L.A. Rams 4 L.A. Rams
Tennessee N.Y. Giants 15.5 N.Y. Giants
 

 

Team Team Total Pick
Houston N.Y. Jets 28 Over
Cleveland Denver 32.5 Over
Buffalo Detroit 25 Over
Baltimore Tampa Bay 60 Under
 

 

Team Team Total Pick
Oakland Cincinnati 33 Over
N.Y. Giants Tennessee 30.5 Over
Washington Jacksonville 49 Under
Indianapolis Dallas 34 Over
 

 

Team Team Total Pick
Seattle San Francisco 57.5 Under
L.A. Rams Philadelphia 40.5 Over
Arizona Atlanta 31 Over
New Orleans Carolina 65 Under

Remember that all of our selections on this site are strictly for entertainment purposes only.  We do not wager actual currency or coinage on these games.  We are purely a group of math statistics lovers that also love and played sports.  Please do not wager real money based only on what we publish here.

 

 

 

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December 10, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 15: December 13-17, 2018

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:07 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Kansas City L.A. Chargers 6.3 5.8 5.7 54
N.Y. Jets Houston -4.7 -5.2 -5.7 48
Denver Cleveland 6.0 5.7 5.2 44.5
Chicago Green Bay 7.8 7.5 8.9 47.5
Minnesota Miami 9.5 9.7 9.1 43.5
Buffalo Detroit -4.2 -4.2 -4.1 42
Baltimore Tampa Bay 10.5 10.9 10.1 46.5
Atlanta Arizona 7.7 7.9 7.6 43.5
Cincinnati Oakland 5.2 5.2 4.9 45
N.Y. Giants Tennessee 4.2 4.3 4.9 43
Jacksonville Washington 6.2 6.3 6.0 41.5
Indianapolis Dallas 2.4 1.5 3.0 45.5
San Francisco Seattle -7.1 -7.4 -8.3 44.5
Pittsburgh New England 4.0 3.8 3.7 47.5
L.A. Rams Philadelphia 9.5 9.8 9.7 51
Carolina New Orleans -9.9 -10.5 -10.4 51.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 105.6 105.9 105.8 105.8 23 9-4
Miami 95.3 95.1 95.3 95.2 23 7-6
N. Y. Jets 95.0 94.5 94.6 94.7 24 4-9
Buffalo 92.5 92.4 92.2 92.3 18 4-9
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 106.6 106.7 106.5 106.6 24.5 7-5-1
Baltimore 103.5 103.9 103.7 103.7 21 7-6
Cleveland 97.2 97.5 98.0 97.6 24.5 5-7-1
Cincinnati 94.6 94.7 94.2 94.5 23.5 5-8
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Houston 102.2 102.3 102.8 102.4 24 9-4
Indianapolis 101.2 100.4 101.4 101.0 25.5 7-6
Tennessee 97.4 97.4 97.1 97.3 20 7-6
Jacksonville 97.5 97.1 97.1 97.2 19 4-9
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 107.6 107.8 107.5 107.6 30 11-2
LA Chargers 104.2 105.0 104.8 104.7 24 10-3
Denver 100.3 100.2 100.2 100.2 20 6-7
Oakland 91.8 92.0 91.9 91.9 21.5 3-10
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Dallas 101.8 101.8 101.4 101.7 20 8-5
Philadelphia 100.8 100.9 100.7 100.8 22.5 6-7
N.Y. Giants 98.6 98.7 99.0 98.8 23 5-8
Washington 93.9 93.2 93.6 93.6 22.5 6-7
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Chicago 105.0 105.2 106.0 105.4 23 9-4
Minnesota 101.8 101.7 101.4 101.6 20.5 6-6-1
Green Bay 99.8 100.2 99.6 99.8 24.5 5-7-1
Detroit 99.2 99.1 98.8 99.0 24 5-8
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 112.8 112.9 113.1 112.9 27 11-2
Carolina 100.4 99.9 100.1 100.1 24.5 6-7
Atlanta 98.5 98.2 97.9 98.2 25.5 4-9
Tampa Bay 95.9 96.0 96.6 96.2 25.5 5-8
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 107.4 107.7 107.4 107.5 28.5 11-2
Seattle 104.8 105.0 105.6 105.1 22.5 8-5
San Francisco 94.7 94.6 94.3 94.5 22 3-10
Arizona 93.8 93.3 93.3 93.5 18 2-11

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Kansas City
2 Houston
3 New England
4 Pittsburgh
5 L.A. Chargers
6 Miami

 

NFC Seeding
1 New Orleans
2 L.A. Rams
3 Chicago
4 Dallas
5 Seattle
6 Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round
New England over Miami
L.A. Chargers over Pittsburgh
Chicago over Minnesota
Dallas over Seattle

 

Divisional Round
Kansas City over L.A. Chargers
Houston over New England
New Orleans over Dallas
L.A. Rams over Chicago

 

Conference Championship
Kansas City over Houston
L.A. Rams over New Orleans

 

Super Bowl 53
Kansas City over L.A. Rams

 

 

 

 

 

 

December 6, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for December 6-10, 2018

The Land Sharps are taking a week off this week, since they play only college games, and there is just one game.  They will return for the bowls and playoffs.

In the meantime, the PiRate Ratings will go it alone and select our teaser choices for you to look at but not touch.  In other words, please do not wager real currency on what we issue here, as this is for entertainment purposes only.  While, our NFL picks have been on fire now for about a month, this does not mean they won’t stink it up so bad that they need to be sprayed with poopouri.

COLLEGE
13-Point Teaser 4-Game Parlays @12-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Army Navy 20 Navy
Navy Army 6 Army
Army Navy 27 OVER
Army Navy 53 UNDER

 

N F L

10-Point Teasers 3-Game Parlays @11-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Tennessee Jacksonville 15.5 Jacksonville
Baltimore Kansas City 3.5 Kansas City
Indianapolis Houston 5 Houston
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Green Bay Atlanta 15 Atlanta
New England Miami 17.5 Miami
Cleveland Carolina 9 Carolina
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Oakland Pittsburgh Pk Pittsburgh
Chicago L.A. Rams 7 L.A. Rams
Minnesota Seattle 7 Seattle
Team Team Total Pick
Kansas City Baltimore 41 OVER
Houston Indianapolis 59.5 UNDER
N.Y. Giants Washington 31 OVER
Team Team Total Pick
New Orleans Tampa Bay 45.5 OVER
Carolina Cleveland 37 OVER
Arizona Detroit 30.5 OVER
13-Point Teaser 4 Game parlay @12-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Washington N.Y. Giants 9.5 N.Y. Giants
San Francisco Denver 9.5 Denver
L.A. Chargers Cincinnati 1 L.A. Chargers
Detroit Arizona 16 Arizona

 

 

 

December 4, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 14: December 6-10, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Tennessee Jacksonville 0.6 0.9 0.3 39
Kansas City Baltimore 8.0 8.0 8.1 51
Houston Indianapolis 5.0 6.3 5.7 49.5
Cleveland Carolina -2.1 -1.4 -1.4 49
Green Bay Atlanta 2.6 3.3 2.6 49.5
Tampa Bay New Orleans -13.5 -13.5 -13.1 53.5
Buffalo N.Y. Jets 0.2 0.7 0.6 41
Miami New England -8.2 -9.2 -9.0 44.5
Chicago L.A. Rams -0.6 -1.3 0.0 52.5
Washington N.Y. Giants 1.8 0.9 1.4 44
San Francisco Denver -6.1 -6.1 -6.4 43
L.A. Chargers Cincinnati 13.3 13.9 14.2 47.5
Arizona Detroit -1.3 -1.5 -1.0 43
Dallas Philadelphia 4.1 4.3 4.4 41
Oakland Pittsburgh -12.8 -12.7 -12.6 46
Seattle Minnesota 4.8 4.9 5.8 44

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings 

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 105.9 106.4 106.4 106.2 22.5 9-3
Miami 94.7 94.3 94.4 94.4 22 6-6
N. Y. Jets 94.6 94.1 94.1 94.3 23.5 3-9
Buffalo 92.9 92.8 92.7 92.8 17.5 4-8
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 106.5 106.5 106.2 106.4 24.5 7-4-1
Baltimore 102.9 103.2 102.9 103.0 21 7-5
Cleveland 96.6 96.9 97.3 96.9 24.5 4-7-1
Cincinnati 94.3 94.4 93.9 94.2 23.5 5-7
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Houston 102.8 103.1 103.6 103.1 24 9-3
Indianapolis 100.3 99.3 100.3 100.0 25.5 6-6
Jacksonville 98.8 98.5 98.6 98.6 19 4-8
Tennessee 96.9 96.8 96.4 96.7 20 6-6
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 107.9 108.2 108.0 108.0 30 10-2
LA Chargers 104.5 105.3 105.1 105.0 24 9-3
Denver 101.8 101.7 101.7 101.7 20.5 6-6
Oakland 90.7 90.8 90.6 90.7 21.5 2-10
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Dallas 101.9 102.0 101.7 101.9 19 7-5
Philadelphia 100.7 100.7 100.4 100.6 22 6-6
N.Y. Giants 96.3 96.5 96.6 96.5 22 4-8
Washington 96.2 95.4 96.0 95.9 22 6-6
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Chicago 104.2 104.2 105.0 104.5 23.5 8-4
Minnesota 102.4 102.4 102.1 102.3 21 6-5-1
Green Bay 99.1 99.5 98.7 99.1 24 4-7-1
Detroit 98.4 98.2 97.8 98.1 24.5 4-8
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 112.5 112.6 112.8 112.6 27.5 10-2
Carolina 101.3 100.8 101.1 101.1 24.5 6-6
Atlanta 99.5 99.2 99.1 99.2 25.5 4-8
Tampa Bay 96.0 96.1 96.7 96.3 26 5-7
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 107.9 108.4 108.1 108.1 29 11-1
Seattle 104.2 104.3 104.9 104.5 23 7-5
Arizona 94.6 94.2 94.3 94.4 18.5 3-9
San Francisco 93.2 93.1 92.8 93.0 22.5 2-10

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Kansas City
2 New England
3 Houston
4 Pittsburgh
5 L.A. Chargers
6 Baltimore
NFC Seeding
1 L.A. Rams
2 New Orleans
3 Chicago
4 Philadelphia
5 Seattle
6 Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round
Houston over Baltimore
L.A. Chargers over Pittsburgh
Chicago over Minnesota
Philadelphia over Seattle

 

Divisional Round
L.A. Chargers over Kansas City
New England over Houston
New Orleans over Chicago
L.A. Rams over Philadelphia

 

Conference Championship
L.A. Chargers over New England
L.A. Rams over New Orleans

 

Super Bowl 53
L.A. Rams over L.A. Chargers

 

 

November 28, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for November 29-December 3, 2018

Our Land Sharps have become the 1970’s Boston Red Sox.  Most years during this decade, the Red Sox had a division lead well into multiple seasons only to suffer a disappointing finish and close with a mediocre record or just short of winning the division.  In one year, they lost by a half-game that is obviously the shortest losing margin ever.  In one year, they lost in a one-game playoff.  In another year, they led the division into September only to finish in a second place tie 1 1/2 games out.  Yes, there was 1975, the year Baltimore’s great teams of the late 1960’s and early 1970’s began to fall apart, and a year before the Yankees began their fantastic run.  It was like 1967 all over again, as the rest of the pack fell apart in September.

Our five Land Sharps were in the equivalent of first place in the football season equivalent of the first 120 games.  All five sported winning records with fat returns on investment.  We wrote about how incredible this feat was–that five people at random would contribute to this site and all beat the spread by healthy margins through October.

Ah, but the Autumn winds were definitely Raiders to our Land Sharps’ bank accounts.  As we lampoon the month as “No Fave November, the underdogs began to have their days. Teams that were winning easily and covering deflated spreads began to feel the effects of the long grind.  Teams with nothing to lose began to play their future prospects, especially those that could still play multiple games and take a red shirt under the new rules.  Certain players began to feel the pressure of playing for a division title or stay in contention for the NCAA Playoffs.  Weather began to affect games and lower scores.  All in all, once November football began, the underdogs began covering the spread a tiny bit more than in previous weeks.  Some of this could also have been attributed to the public falling in love with teams that won big in September and October.

Well, it affected our Land Sharps.  Two of the five have performed like the 1977 Chicago Cubs.  If you don’t remember the 1977 Cubs, they were more than 20 games over .500 in the first half of the season and running away with the division, just like the 1969 Cubs.  However, the 1977 squad completely reversed in the second half, losing so many games that they ended the season 81-81, a full 21 games out of first place.

The other three Land Sharps have done a little better, but all five have given away some investment to the mighty Books in November.

We now come to Championship Week.  Except in a couple of cases where teams are playing last-minute replacement games to make up for the September hurricane, the teams playing this week are all top-rated squads.  There is no decisive underdog that can over-perform, and the players will be fighting tooth and nail to their last ounce of energy to win this week.  It is almost like September again, except there are more injuries and players playing while injured to some extent.  We think, or at least we hope the Land Sharps will close with a rush to reclaim their prior financial fame.

Ironically, as our Land Sharps have struggled in November, the PiRate Ratings have been on fire with back-to-back winning weeks.  We will probably jinx ourselves by revealing this, but we have been on a big hot streak with our NFL 10-point Teasers.  In fact, in the last two weeks, we are 7-0, and in the last five weeks, it is 20-7.  Our college picks belong in the sewer, but since we are here for entertainment purposes only, and we know about 65% of you reading this come here for college football, we will continue to issue both college and pro football selections.  Just please take our advice: NEVER wager real currency (or the stuff they pass off as real) on the selections you see made here.  You have some presents to buy for your relatives, so don’t end up having to give them that 10-year old fruitcake (can you really tell the difference between fresh and 10-years old?), because you cannot afford the Isotoner gloves after you lost all the money betting on one of our goofy parlays.

Because this week’s schedule featured a limited schedule, we allowed the Sharps to pick as few as one game up to a maximum of five games.  None chose the easy way out and selected just one or two games.  Our Sharps chose three, four, or five games.

1. Cal Gal Tiffany

Season: 38-29-0  56.7%

Return on Investment: +9.1%

California +3 vs. Stanford

Central Florida -3 vs. Memphis

Oklahoma -8 vs. Texas

 

2. Buckeye Michelle

Season: 32-26-1  55.2%

Return on Investment: +5.8%

Buffalo -3 1/2 vs. Northern Illinois

Ohio St. -14 vs. Northwestern

Boise St. -2 1/2 vs. Fresno St.

Texas +8 vs. Oklahoma

Central Florida -3 vs. Memphis

 

3. Stewed Meat

Season: 36-31-3  53.7%

Return on Investment: +2.7%

Buffalo -3 1/2 vs. Northern Illinois

UAB +1 1/2 vs. Middle Tennessee

Central Florida -3 vs. Memphis

 

4. Dean615

Season: 29-27-2  51.8%

Return on Investment: -1.2%

Texas +8 vs. Oklahoma

Georgia +13 1/2 vs. Alabama

Boise St. -2 1/2 vs. Fresno St.

UAB +1 1/2 vs. Middle Tennessee

 

5. Friday Dog 13

Season: 34-33-1  50.7%

Return on Investment: -3.4%

Buffalo -3 1/2 vs. Northern Illinois

Middle Tennessee -1 1/2 vs. UAB

Central Florida -3 vs. Memphis

Oklahoma -8 vs. Texas

 

The PiRate Ratings Selections

COLLEGE

Moneyline Parlay 2 @ +183
Must Win Must Lose
Central Florida Memphis
Boise St. Fresno St.

 

Moneyline Parlay 3 @ +191
Must Win Must Lose
Buffalo Northern Illinois
Virginia Tech Marshall
Appalachian St. Louisiana

 

NFL

10-Point Teaser 3-Game Parlay @11-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Dallas New Orleans 3 New Orleans
Green Bay Arizona 4 Green Bay
Baltimore Atlanta 11 Atlanta
 

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Denver Cincinnati 15 Cincinnati
L.A. Rams Detroit Pk L.A. Rams
Kansas City Oakland 4.5 Kansas City
 

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Tennessee N.Y. Jets 19 N.Y. Jets
New England Minnesota 5.5 New England
Seattle San Francisco Pk Seattle
 

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Washington Philadelphia 3.5 Philadelphia
Kansas City Oakland 24.5 Oakland
Chicago N.Y. Giants 14.5 N.Y. Giants

 

November 26, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 13: November 29-December 3, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Dallas New Orleans -10.8 -11.0 -11.7 48
Jacksonville Indianapolis 0.7 1.1 -0.3 46
Pittsburgh L.A. Chargers 5.9 5.4 5.5 47.5
Tampa Bay Carolina -4.5 -4.1 -4.0 51.5
Atlanta Baltimore 1.0 0.2 0.7 46.5
Houston Cleveland 7.5 7.2 7.2 49.5
Miami Buffalo 4.6 4.3 4.5 39.5
N.Y. Giants Chicago -6.3 -6.3 -7.0 44.5
Cincinnati Denver -2.6 -2.2 -2.4 45.5
Detroit L.A. Rams -6.2 -7.0 -6.5 54
Green Bay Arizona 9.2 10.4 9.4 43.5
Oakland Kansas City -14.4 -14.9 -15.2 50
Tennessee N.Y. Jets 4.8 5.4 4.8 42.5
New England Minnesota 5.4 5.7 5.8 44.5
Seattle San Francisco 11.7 11.7 12.6 44.5
Philadelphia Washington 5.1 5.8 4.5 44

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 105.1 105.5 105.4 105.3 23 8-3
Miami 95.0 94.6 94.7 94.7 22 5-6
N. Y. Jets 94.6 94.0 94.1 94.2 23 3-8
Buffalo 92.9 92.8 92.7 92.8 17.5 4-7
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 107.0 107.1 106.9 107.0 24 7-3-1
Baltimore 102.3 102.6 102.2 102.4 21 6-5
Cleveland 97.2 97.6 98.1 97.6 25 4-6-1
Cincinnati 95.5 95.7 95.3 95.5 24.5 5-6
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Houston 102.2 102.4 102.8 102.4 24.5 8-3
Indianapolis 100.5 99.6 100.8 100.3 26.5 6-5
Jacksonville 98.6 98.2 98.1 98.3 19.5 3-8
Tennessee 96.9 96.9 96.4 96.7 19.5 5-6
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 107.9 108.3 108.2 108.1 29.5 9-2
LA Chargers 104.0 104.7 104.4 104.4 23.5 8-3
Denver 100.6 100.4 100.3 100.4 21 5-6
Oakland 90.4 90.4 90.1 90.3 20.5 2-9
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Dallas 100.4 100.4 100.0 100.3 20 6-5
Philadelphia 99.7 99.7 99.2 99.5 22 5-6
Washington 97.2 96.4 97.2 96.9 22 6-5
N.Y. Giants 95.6 95.7 95.8 95.7 21.5 3-8
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Chicago 104.4 104.5 105.3 104.7 23 8-3
Minnesota 102.7 102.8 102.6 102.7 21.5 6-4-1
Green Bay 100.2 100.8 100.0 100.3 24.5 4-6-1
Detroit 98.8 98.6 98.4 98.6 25 4-7
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 113.7 113.9 114.2 113.9 28 10-1
Carolina 102.4 102.0 102.4 102.3 25 6-5
Atlanta 100.7 100.4 100.4 100.5 25.5 4-7
Tampa Bay 95.4 95.4 95.9 95.6 26.5 4-7
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 107.5 108.0 107.5 107.7 29 10-1
Seattle 102.9 102.9 103.5 103.1 22.5 6-5
San Francisco 94.2 94.2 93.9 94.1 22 2-9
Arizona 94.0 93.4 93.5 93.6 19 2-9

 

If The Playoffs Began Today

AFC Seedings

  1. Kansas City
  2. New England
  3. Houston
  4. Pittsburgh
  5. L.A. Chargers
  6. Baltimore

NFC Seedings

  1. New Orleans
  2. L.A. Rams
  3. Chicago
  4. Dallas
  5. Minnesota
  6. Washington

 

 

Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Kansas City
2 New England
3 Houston
4 Pittsburgh
5 L.A. Chargers
6 Indianapolis

 

NFC Seeding
1 New Orleans
2 L.A. Rams
3 Chicago
4 Dallas
5 Seattle
6 Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round
Houston over Indianapolis
L.A. Chargers over Pittsburgh
Chicago over Minnesota
Seattle over Dallas

 

Divisional Round
L.A. Chargers over Kansas City
New England over Houston
New Orleans over Seattle
L.A. Rams over Chicago

 

Conference Championship
New England over L.A. Chargers
New Orleans over L.A. Rams

 

Super Bowl 53
New Orleans over New England

 

 

 

November 20, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 12: November 22-26, 2018

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:49 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Detroit Chicago -2.3 -2.3 -3.3 49
Dallas Washington 5.8 6.6 5.4 41
New Orleans Atlanta 16.2 16.7 17.2 53.5
Buffalo Jacksonville -4.1 -3.8 -4.2 36
Baltimore Oakland 15.0 15.4 15.3 41.5
Tampa Bay San Francisco 2.4 1.9 2.7 49.5
Philadelphia N.Y. Giants 6.3 6.4 5.8 43.5
Cincinnati Cleveland 2.5 2.6 2.0 48
N.Y. Jets New England -7.4 -8.4 -7.8 46
Carolina Seattle 3.2 2.8 3.1 46.5
Indianapolis Miami 8.9 8.4 9.6 48.5
L.A. Chargers Arizona 10.2 11.6 10.7 41.5
Denver Pittsburgh -4.9 -5.4 -5.5 45
Minnesota Green Bay 4.8 4.3 4.9 46
Houston Tennessee 6.0 5.9 6.7 43

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 104.8 105.2 104.9 105.0 23 7-3
N. Y. Jets 94.9 94.3 94.6 94.6 23 3-7
Miami 94.8 94.4 94.5 94.5 22 5-5
Buffalo 92.6 92.5 92.2 92.4 17 3-7
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 107.5 107.7 107.6 107.6 24 7-2-1
Baltimore 102.2 102.5 102.1 102.3 21 5-5
Cincinnati 96.7 97.0 96.7 96.8 24 5-5
Cleveland 96.1 96.4 96.8 96.4 24 3-6-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Houston 101.1 101.2 101.5 101.2 24 7-3
Indianapolis 100.7 99.8 101.0 100.5 26.5 5-5
Jacksonville 99.2 98.8 98.9 98.9 19 3-7
Tennessee 98.1 98.2 97.8 98.0 19 5-5
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 107.6 108.0 107.9 107.8 29.5 9-2
LA Chargers 102.9 103.6 103.1 103.2 23 7-3
Denver 99.6 99.3 99.1 99.3 21 4-6
Oakland 90.6 90.6 90.3 90.5 20.5 2-8
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Dallas 100.4 100.4 100.0 100.3 19.5 5-5
Philadelphia 99.8 99.9 99.4 99.7 22 4-6
Washington 97.6 96.8 97.6 97.3 21.5 6-4
N.Y. Giants 95.5 95.5 95.6 95.5 21.5 3-7
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Chicago 104.2 104.2 105.0 104.5 23.5 7-3
Minnesota 102.6 102.7 102.5 102.6 21.5 5-4-1
Green Bay 100.3 100.9 100.1 100.4 24.5 4-5-1
Detroit 99.0 98.9 98.7 98.9 25.5 4-6
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 113.8 114.0 114.4 114.1 28 9-1
Carolina 102.6 102.2 102.8 102.5 24.5 6-4
Atlanta 100.6 100.3 100.2 100.3 25.5 4-6
Tampa Bay 94.6 94.4 94.9 94.6 27 3-7
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 107.2 107.7 107.2 107.4 29 10-1
Seattle 102.4 102.4 102.8 102.5 22 5-5
San Francisco 95.3 95.5 95.2 95.3 22.5 2-8
Arizona 95.2 94.6 94.9 94.9 18.5 2-8

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

If Playoffs Began Today

AFC
1 Kansas City
2 Pittsburgh
3 New England
4 Houston
5 L.A. Chargers
6 Baltimore

 

NFC
1 L.A. Rams
2 New Orleans
3 Chicago
4 Washington
5 Carolina
6 Minnesota

 

Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Pittsburgh
2 Kansas City
3 New England
4 Houston
5 L.A. Chargers
6 Indianapolis

 

NFC Seeding
1 New Orleans
2 L.A. Rams
3 Chicago
4 Dallas
5 Carolina
6 Seattle

 

Wildcard Round
Indianapolis over New England
Houston over L.A. Chargers
Chicago over Seattle
Carolina over Dallas

 

Divisional Round
Pittsburgh over Indianapolis
Kansas City over Houston
New Orleans over Carolina
L.A. Rams over Chicago

 

Conference Championship
PIttsburgh over Kansas City
New Orleans over L.A. Rams

 

Super Bowl 53
New Orleans over Pittsburgh

 

Last Night’s Rams-Chiefs Game Made A Lot of History, BUT…

Last night’s Rams-Chiefs game at the Coliseum in Los Angeles was historic.  The 105 points scored, however, was not an all-time regular season high total.  Yours truly remembers the one game that tallied 113 total points.

The year was 1966.  The Green Bay Packers were trying to win the Western Conference Championship with the Baltimore Colts hot on their heels.  In the Eastern Conference, upstart Dallas, a seventh year franchise yet to have experienced a winning record was about to surprise the two-time defending Eastern Conference Champion Cleveland.

It was the Sunday after Thanksgiving.  The football world was still talking about the Michigan State-Notre Dame game the week before and the fact that Notre Dame had secured the national title by their 51-0 pasting of USC the day before.

The Washington Redskins were just 5-6 on the dawn of this Sunday.  For Redskin fans, this was a high water mark for their franchise in recent years, as the club became known as the “Deadskins” during these years.  Legendary quarterback Otto Graham, the Tom Brady of the late 1940’s and 1950’s, had taken over the running of the team, and in his first year as head coach, Washington’s offense was much improved.  Quarterback Sonny Jurgensen flourished in the new offense, and the defense was still a work in progress with a couple of aging stars, led by the once best defender in the league in Sam Huff.

The New York Giants were headed in the opposite direction.  Just a few years earlier, the Giants rode the arm of Y.A. Tittle to three consecutive Eastern Conference Championships.  From the late 1940’s through the early 1960’s, the Giants were the most consistently good team in the NFL, much like the Pittsburgh Steelers have been since the 1970’s.  However, by 1966, the Giants had fallen on hard times.  This was their worst team in history up to that time and arguably their worst team ever.  Coach Allie Sherman’s offense was too inconsistent and conservative, and after half of a season, Sherman benched veteran starter Earl Morrall, when the Giants fell to 1-5-1.  The lone win came over the Redskins at Yankee Stadium.  At the halfway point, Sherman decided to go with what he believed was the future quarterback, Ivy Leaguer Gary Wood.  Wood was in his third season in New York, and he had played sparingly and inefficiently.  The Giants lost their next game, and they headed to District of Columbia Stadium (would be renamed Robert F. Kennedy Stadium after his assassination) to face the Redskins in a hope to sweep the one team the players believed they could beat.  They entered the game at 1-8-1.

Sherman decided to make another quarterback change for this game.  He inserted Rookie Tom Kennedy, a stretch prospect from a small college.  This would be Kennedy’s only start of his brief one year career and only real playing experience of the season.

On the other side of the field, the aging Huff prepared for this game like it was Super Bowl I.  He hated Sherman, enough to punch him in the jaw if he got the chance.  Sherman had dismissed Huff from the Giants following the 1963 season after the Giants lost to the Bears in the NFL Championship.  He wanted to punish Sherman, and when the Redskins lost to New York a few weeks earlier, it made Huff even more violent than was portrayed in the spectacular documentary, “The Violent World of Sam Huff.”

Huff fired up his teammates for this game.  The Redskins put in a game plan to blitz the daylights out of the raw rookie.  They would rush him and force him to get rid of the ball quickly or prepare to accept a lot of floral bouquets in his upcoming hospital room.

On the other side of the ball, the Redskins understood that with an erratic quarterback most likely unable to sustain many drives, that they would get many opportunities to exploit the worst defense in the NFL.  The Redskins’ players felt confident that they could top 30 points in this game and win by double digits.

The Giants won the toss that day.  It would be their only win of the day.  Kennedy was thrown into the fray quickly, and on his first pass attempt, Washington blitzed and forced him to pass quickly.  The ball was well off target and was intercepted and returned deep into Giants’ territory.  A short Redskin drive led to an immediate touchdown.  The PAT was blocked, and the score was 6-0 Redskins.

Kennedy improved somewhat the rest of the first quarter.  He improved from intercepted passes to incomplete passes.  At least, punter Ernie Koy pinned the Redskins back inside their own 25 yard line.

The Giants figured that they would have to stop Jurgensen’s pinpoint deep passes to all-pro end Charley Taylor.  This opened up running lanes, and halfback A.D. Whitfield broke free for the longest run in his career, over 60 yards for the second touchdown.  The PAT was good this time, and the Redskins led 13-0 after the end of the first quarter.  Nobody could guess what would happen next.

In the second quarter, Kennedy began to complete some passes and drove the Giants into Washington territory.  A pass play was called with an option to throw the ball to the end zone.  Facing a linebacker blitz, Chris Hanburger clobbered Kennedy into the ground, and he coughed up the ball going down.  Rookie defensive back Brig Owens would be a star one day, but on this day, he would have his best ever game.  He already had an interception in this game, and he scooped up the fumble and went all the way to the house for a Redskins’ touchdown.  Now, the score was 20-0, and the Giants could see the writing on the wall.

On the next possession, Kennedy had his career moment.  He drove the Giants 70+ yards for a touchdown to cut the lead to 20-7.  Kennedy felt confident on the sideline that he could lead the Giants back into this game.  After the defense forced Washington to punt, Kennedy began to move the Giants toward midfield, when he threw his second interception of the half.  A few plays later, Washington scored on a line plunge to make it 27-7 with time left to completely put the game away before halftime.

Once again, the key weapon for the Redskins just before the half was their defensive backfield.  Kennedy threw his third interception into the hands of future Minnesota Vikings’ Hall of Famer Paul Krause.  Jurgensen quickly led the Redskins to paydirt, and Washington led 34-7 with less than two minutes remaining in the half.  At this point, Sherman had seen enough of Kennedy.  He inserted Wood into the game, and Wood directed the Giants on a quick touchdown drive to cut the lead to 34-14 at the half.

In the locker room, Huff told his teammates not to let up and to pour it on New York.  He wanted to top 50 points, maybe even get to 60.  He knew the Giants’ defense would totally fold in the second half.  In the other locker room, Sherman decided to stick with Wood at quarterback to start the third quarter.  Wood would face the same blitz packages as Kennedy, but Wood was just as interception prone as Kennedy.  He was just as likely to complete passes to the wrong colored jersey as his own, and he would not disappoint Huff and his Redskins’ teammates.

However, on the Giants’ first possession of the third quarter, Wood directed the Giants on a scoring march.  The Giants might have been inept on defense, but they still had some weapons.  Receivers Homer Jones and Aaron Thomas were threats to score any time they caught the ball in the open field.  Old-timer Joe Morrison still had the ability to find an overdrive gear and bust open a long play.  Wood connected with Morrison, and the veteran took the ball the distance to cut the lead to 34-21.  The Giants were still alive with more than a quarter to go.

I know what you are thinking.  At this point, the game was midway through the third quarter, and the score was only 34-21.  How in the world could the teams combine for 58 more points in the next quarter and a half?  From this point on, it looked like an Arena Football game.  It started with a quick touchdown drive led by Jurgensen to put the Redskins up 41-21.  He finally connected with Taylor on a long scoring pass.

A few plays into the next drive, Wood threw a long bomb for a touchdown to Jones to cut the lead to 41-28.  Not to be outdone, Jurgensen threw long to Taylor, and Taylor took it all the way for a 74-yard score to make it 48-28, as the third quarter came to a close.

The fourth quarter was just plain crazy.  It started with New York having to punt from well inside their own territory.  Rickie Harris, who led the NFL in punt returns as a rookie in 1965 was experiencing a sophomore slump, but he broke free for a touchdown on the return, as Washington stretched the lead to 55-28.

Rather quickly, Wood tossed a touchdown pass, but this time it was to the opposite colored jerseys.  Owens intercepted his third pass of the day, and he scored on his second 60+ yard return to make it 62-28.

At this point, Sherman put Kennedy back in to face the relentless pressure.  In what would be his one big highlight of the day, he quickly responded with a touchdown pass to Thomas to make it 62-34 when the PAT sailed wide.

At this point, Graham relieved Jurgensen for the rest of the day, placing backup Dick Shiner into the game.  Shiner attempted one pass on the day, and it was intercepted, which led to the Giants scoring for the last time on this day to cut the lead to 62-41.  Time was running out on this classic game, but there would be two more scores yet.

Down by three touchdowns, Sherman called for an onside kick, which failed.  A couple of plays later, back Charlie Mitchell broke through the line on a quick trap and ran 45 yards for a touchdown.  The score was now 69-41 in favor of the Redskins, the second highest amount ever scored in an NFL game.

The last score should not have happened.  Kennedy tried to move the Giants quickly and was out of time outs.  He thought he was clocking the ball on 3rd down to set up a 4th down pass for a first down, but instead, it was 4th down.  When he threw the ball out of bounds (spiking was not legal then), the Redskins took over possession deep in Giants’ territory with less than 10 seconds remaining.

All Washington had to do was take a knee, and the game would be over.  But, Sam Huff had other ideas this Sunday afternoon.  He wasn’t pleased with just a 28-point when and 69 points.  He hated Sherman so much that he called a timeout.  He convinced Coach Graham to let kicker Charlie Gogolak try a field goal to put Washington over the 70-point mark, something that had only been done once before in regular season play and would be second most ever to when Chicago beat the Redskins 73-0 in the NFL Championship Game of 1945.

During the timeout, Huff was observed telling Sherman about his family heritage among other expletives.  He wanted to goad the Giants into starting a fight, so he could go deck Sherman.  Instead, Gogolak finished the game with a field goal to make the final score 72-41.  Coach Graham stood up for Huff by stating that he wanted to give Gogolak some extra field goal practice, but Charlie had made nine PATs in this game and didn’t need any more practice.

The win moved Washington to 6-6 in the standings, and the Redskins would split their final two games to finish the season at 7-7, their only non-losing record in a 12-year span.  Washington would not enjoy a winning season until 1969 when Vince Lombardi coached his last team prior to his death.

As for the Giants, the next week, they scored 40 points again, and for the only time in history a team lost consecutive games when they scored 40 or more points, as the Browns came from 20 points down to win 49-40.  New York would finish the season 1-12-1, giving up 35.8 points per game and turning the ball over an amazing 44 times in 14 games.  They would finally have a star quarterback the following year, when they traded for Fran Tarkenton from Minnesota, but the best Sherman could do with Tarkenton were consecutive 7-7 seasons in 1967 and 1968.  It would take until 1981 for the Giants to make the playoffs again.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 13, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 11: November 15-19, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Seattle Green Bay 5.3 4.7 6.1 46.5
Detroit Carolina -1.3 -1.1 -1.8 51
Atlanta Dallas 3.7 3.5 4.1 45
Baltimore Cincinnati 9.3 9.3 9.2 45
Chicago Minnesota 4.2 3.7 5.0 45
New Orleans Philadelphia 13.0 13.1 14.0 50
Indianapolis Tennessee 1.6 0.3 2.0 45.5
Washington Houston 0.2 -0.6 0.2 45.5
N.Y. Giants Tampa Bay 3.4 3.6 3.2 47
L.A. Chargers Denver 6.7 7.8 7.7 44
Arizona Oakland 9.0 8.3 9.5 38.5
Jacksonville Pittsburgh -5.1 -5.8 -5.6 43.5
L.A. Rams * Kansas City -0.6 -0.2 -1.2 56.5
L. A. Rams Kansas City 2.4 2.8 1.8 56.5
* This is a neutral site game to be played in Mexico City

This game has now been moved back to LA due to unplayable field conditions in Mexico City.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 104.5 104.9 104.6 104.7 23 7-3
N. Y. Jets 94.6 94.0 94.3 94.3 23 3-7
Miami 94.5 94.1 94.2 94.2 22 5-5
Buffalo 92.3 92.2 91.9 92.1 17 3-7
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 107.5 107.7 107.6 107.6 24 6-2-1
Baltimore 103.0 103.3 102.9 103.1 21 4-5
Cincinnati 96.7 97.0 96.7 96.8 24 5-4
Cleveland 95.8 96.1 96.5 96.1 24 3-6-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Houston 101.0 101.1 101.2 101.1 24 6-3
Tennessee 100.2 100.5 100.1 100.3 19 5-4
Jacksonville 99.4 99.0 99.1 99.1 19.5 3-6
Indianapolis 98.9 97.8 99.0 98.6 26.5 4-5
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 107.7 108.0 108.1 107.9 28.5 9-1
LA Chargers 103.3 104.1 103.7 103.7 23 7-2
Denver 99.2 98.8 98.5 98.8 21 3-6
Oakland 89.8 89.8 89.3 89.6 20 1-8
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 101.4 101.5 101.0 101.3 22 4-5
Dallas 99.9 99.8 99.3 99.7 19.5 4-5
Washington 98.7 97.9 98.9 98.5 21.5 6-3
N.Y. Giants 95.5 95.5 95.6 95.5 20.5 2-7
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Chicago 104.2 104.1 105.0 104.4 23.5 6-3
Minnesota 102.6 102.8 102.5 102.6 21.5 5-3-1
Green Bay 100.2 100.8 99.9 100.3 24.5 4-4-1
Detroit 98.9 98.8 98.6 98.8 26 3-6
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 111.4 111.6 112.0 111.7 28 8-1
Carolina 102.7 102.3 102.9 102.6 25 6-3
Atlanta 101.1 100.9 100.9 100.9 25.5 4-5
Tampa Bay 94.6 94.4 94.9 94.6 26.5 3-6
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 107.1 107.7 107.0 107.3 28 9-1
Seattle 102.5 102.5 103.0 102.7 22 4-5
Arizona 96.3 95.7 96.2 96.1 18.5 2-7
San Francisco 95.0 95.2 94.9 95.0 22.5 2-8

 

This Week’s NFL Playoff Projections

As we enter week 11, we add a look at current playoff standings if the season ended today.

Current Playoff Standings

AFC
1 Kansas City
2 Pittsburgh
3 New England
4 Houston
5 L.A. Chargers
6 Cincinnati

 

NFC
1 L.A. Rams
2 New Orleans
3 Chicago
4 Washington
5 Carolina
6 Minnesota

 

Our Projections 

AFC Seeding
1 L.A. Chargers
2 Pittsburgh
3 New England
4 Houston
5 Kansas City
6 Tennessee

 

NFC Seeding
1 New Orleans
2 L.A. Rams
3 Chicago
4 Washington
5 Carolina
6 Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round
New England over Tennessee
Houston over Kansas City
Chicago over Minnesota
Carolina over Washington

 

Divisional Round
L.A. Chargers over Houston
Pittsburgh over New England
New Orleans over Carolina
L.A. Rams over Chicago

 

Conference Championships
Pittsburgh over L.A. Chargers
New Orleans over L.A. Rams

 

Super Bowl 53
New Orleans over Pittsburgh

 

Can the New York Giants Pull Off The Nearly Impossible?

Prior to week 10, members of the New York Giants claimed to the media that they could win their final eight games and finish 9-7 and make the playoffs.  With a 1-7 record at the time of this statement, the chances of winning eight consecutive games and moving from last place to first place was so infinitesimal that the odds of winning the lottery were not much worse.

Yet, if the Giants were to win just one game in the first half of the schedule and then go undefeated in the second half of the schedule to win the division and make the playoffs, it would have precedent.  Yes, this has been done one time before in the post-merger era.

In fact, it was the first year of the merger between the NFL and former AFL.  In the AFC Central, the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers had moved from the former NFL Century Division along with Houston and Cincinnati.  Entering the season, Cleveland was the heavy favorite to breeze to the division title and the second pick to the Baltimore Colts (Which had moved from the NFL Coastal Division to the AFC East Division, as it was ridiculous for the Colts and Rams to be in the same division).  The Browns had advanced to the NFL Championship Game in 1969 and returned the bulk of their roster.

Pittsburgh had been the worst team in the NFL in 1969, going 1-13.  Still, the Steelers were expected to contend with a mediocre Houston Oilers team for second place in the division, but nobody expected either team to contend with Cleveland or for the newly created single Wildcard spot for the AFC.

And, then there was Cincinnati.  The Bengals had been in existence for just two seasons.  They were a dismal 3-11 in 1968, but in 1969, they had one fantastic rookie quarterback.  Greg Cook, a local hero who had been a star quarterback at Chillicothe High School and the University of Cincinnati, had been the Bengals’ first round pick in the  1969 draft.  Cook immediately won the starting quarterback job in training camp.  He was a gunslinger type passer, typical of the type of quarterback that made the AFL more exciting than the conservative NFL.  The Bengals, led by legendary coach Paul Brown, rarely threw short passes.  Their strategy was to stretch the field vertically to open up running lanes for their two starting running backs, halfback Paul Robinson fullback Jess Phillips.

Cook’s debut was similar to Pat Mahomes this year with the Chiefs.  In his very first game, the Bengals beat Miami thanks to two long touchdown passes from Cook to receiver Eric Crabtree.  Nobody thought too much of the game, since the Dolphins were also an expansion team that had yet to build up a decent roster.  In week two, Cincinnati hosted a San Diego Chargers team that was a contender for the AFL West title.  The Chargers were big favorites, and Cook once again hooked up for two long touchdown passes, one to Bob Trumpy and one to future head coach Bruce Coslet.

At 2-0, the Bengals picked up a little notice, but week three was going to obviously be their week for comeuppance.  The powerful Kansas City Chiefs with the best defense in AFL history were coming to the Queen City.  Cook would have no chance against the best defensive line in all of football, the line that would lead KC to the Super Bowl title in a few months.  Because of the great start, NBC made this their nationally televised AFL Game in the early time slot, and yours truly was perched in front of the big Zenith TV watching this game in all hopes that the new phenom could become another Joe Namath and Daryle Lamonica for the much “funner” AFL.

Cook once again opened this game with brilliant passing plays to set up his running backs.  After spotting the Chiefs a couple of field goals, Cook led the Bengals on a scoring drive that ended with a scoring pass to Crabtree.  The Bengals led 7-6, but their history was about to be changed forever.  In the second quarter, Cook dropped back to pass and faced a Chiefs’ blitz by the outside linebackers.  Chiefs’ outside linebacker Jim Lynch knocked Cook to the ground, forcing all his weight on Cook’s throwing shoulder.  Cook would later say he heard his shoulder pop, and he exited the game with intense pain.

The Bengals hung on to win behind back up QB and future head coach Sam Wyche.  They were an incredible 3-0 and led the AFL West over the Chiefs and Raiders.  However, their gunslinger was out of bullets for the next three weeks.  Had doctors been able to diagnose a torn rotator cuff, they would have held Cook out for the rest of the year, but 1969 was a different time.  Cook was expected to come back and play in four weeks, maybe even less if he felt strong enough to throw.

He came back two weeks later, because the Bengals could not move the ball without him in the lineup.  They failed at San Diego and fell to 3-1.  Cook wasn’t ready to face the second best defense in the league in the New York Jets.  He could not get any strength behind his passes, and the Jets’ pass rush forced him to throw quickly in fear of further hurting his shoulder.  He didn’t last a half.  He had to leave the game in the second quarter, and the Bengals lost to the Jets by 14.  It was a mistake for him to try to play, and his shoulder hurt worse than it had after the initial injury.

Cook was held out of play the next two weeks, and the Bengals looked more like the expansion team they were.  A weak Denver team pummeled them, and then the Chiefs punished them in a revenge match at Municipal Stadium in Kansas City.  The loss dropped the Bengals to 3-4 at the halfway mark.  Cincinnati would have to win out to have any chance of making the playoffs, and they had yet to play the powerhouse team of the league, the Oakland Raiders.

Oakland had yet to lose a game in 1969.  This Raiders’ team looked as strong if not stronger than the two previous teams that went 13-1 and 12-2.  At 6-0-1, Oakland led Kansas City by a half-game.  Once again, this was the nationally televised AFL game on NBC that week, and yours truly sat in front of the ole Zenith ready to route the silver and black to an easy victory.

Cook made his last hurrah in this game.  Brown showed his genius in this game.  He used his wideouts as decoys, sending them deep, while placing his tight ends to run intermediate routes over the middle.  Cook hit Trumpy over and over across the middle, setting up third receiver Chip Myers as a surprise.  The strategy worked, and thanks to the Bengals’ defense picking off a trio of Lamonica passes in the first half, Cinti led 24-0 at the half on way to an easy 31-17 victory.  It would be Oakland’s only loss of the season, and it would be the Bengals’ last win of the season.

Cook limped through the rest of the year unable to put any zip on the ball, and the Bengals finished 4-9-1 and in last place in the AFL West.  Prospects were still high for the Bengals, because after an off-season of rest Cook would be ready to return to form in 1970.

However, things did not go according to plan.  Cook never again regained his arm strength as his rotator cuff injury did not heal itself on its own.  He would never again start a game for the Bengals or anybody else.  He appeared briefly in one game four years later, but it was obvious that he would never again be an NFL quarterback.

The Bengals entered 1970 picked to finish in last place, because Sam Wyche was not the quarterback to lead a team to victory in the new AFC.  He didn’t have the arm accuracy of Cook, and he lacked the finesse to hit shorter passes with much success.  The Bengals would have to try to win by pounding the ball with Phillips, Robinson, and new addition Essex Johnson.

In week one, the Bengals pulled off their miracle for the season, or at least that’s what most sports fans believed.  The three running backs combined for 200 rushing yards, and Wyche even contributed with his legs, scoring a rushing touchdown.  Cincinnati upset Oakland once again.

Over the next six weeks, the Bengals performed exactly like they were expected to perform–miserably.  In their first interconference game in their history, Detroit ran over them like a fleet of automobiles leaving the plant.  The passing stats were plain awful–64 yards!  Losses piled up against Houston, Cleveland, Kansas City, Washington, and Pittsburgh.

At the halfway point of the season, Cleveland led the AFC Central with a disappointing 4-3 record.  As expected, Pittsburgh and Houston fought for second place.  The Steelers were 3-4, while the Oilers were 2-4-1.  The Bengals were 1-6, and it looked like a similar second half would give Cincinnati the chance to draft at the top of the 1970 Draft, where Jim Plunkett and Archie Manning were there for the taking.

The Bengals players refused to give up.  A smart future NFL legend was on the Brown’s staff, and he came to Brown with an idea.  Insert backup Virgil Carter at quarterback for Wyche.  Carter had flamed out in Chicago, where he was best when he turned and handed the ball to Gayle Sayers.  Carter had an accurate arm and rather quick ability to read defenses, but his arm strength limited the types of passes he could throw.  Anything longer than 20 yards downfield looked like a beach ball floating to defensive backs.

This intelligent assistant was Bill Walsh.  His idea was what we know today as the West Coast Offense, but it should have been called the Ohio River offense.  Walsh went to Brown with ideas to spread the field horizontally and use all 53 plus yards from sideline to sideline, which would also create holes for the backs to run through, and better yet, more defensive players would be out of position to make tackles if they were spread wide.

Carter had actually become the starting quarterback a few weeks earlier, but it wasn’t until the Bengals went to War Memorial Stadium in Buffalo that the new strategy was implemented.  At 3-4, the Bills were going nowhere, but they had a rookie running back that had to be stopped in O.J. Simpson.  The Bengals figured the best way to stop Simpson was to keep the ball out of Simpson’s hands.  They tried their new ball-control short passing strategy.  It had only mediocre success, but the Bengals’ defense and special teams scored three touchdowns and set up another, as Cincinnati rolled to a 43-14 victory to improve to 2-6.  Cleveland lost to Oakland to fall into a first place tie with Pittsburgh at 4-4, while Houston fell to 2-5-1.  The Bengals were still in last place, but there was a glimmer of hope just two games behind the co-leaders.

In week 9, Cleveland came to Riverfront Stadium in the most important game in the Bengals’ early franchise history.  With Pittsburgh having to play the Chiefs, there was a chance that Cincinnati could finish the day just one game behind the two co-leaders.

Of course, this meant that Cincinnati had to win against their bitter enemy, the team named for their own coach.  It was a cold and windy day, and long passes were not easy to attempt.  Cleveland QB Mike Phipps saw some early success, but he could do nothing else once the winds picked up.  The Bengals shut down Leroy Kelly, and after trailing 10-0, they slowly came back with their short passing game.  The biggest threat this day came off the passing game, but it did not necessarily come from the passes themselves.  Carter noticed that the Browns’ linebackers were dropping wide into the flat zones, as Cleveland tried to take away the short hook and out patterns.  It left a gaping hole in the middle of the field, and when the Browns rushed from the outside-in, it looked to Carter like he could have driven his car in the opening.  Carter actually topped 100 yards rushing for the only time in his career, and Cincinnati upset the Browns.

Pittsburgh lost to the Chiefs, while Houston lost again.  Now, the Browns and Steelers were tied at 4-5, while Cincnnati was 3-6 and Houston was 2-6-1.  The Bengals could see their opportunity.  They were all of a sudden the only hot team in the division.  They truly believed that they would keep winning.  Better yet, the schedule got easier from this point on.

Pittsburgh came to Riverfront the next week, and the Bengals were now a short favorite to win the game.  While Cleveland put Houston out of their misery to square their record at 5-5, Cincinnati blew the Steelers off the astroturf.  Terry Bradshaw lasted long enough to toss three interceptions before getting yanked in favor of Terry Hanratty, but by then, the outcome had been decided.  Pinpoint passing by Carter, solid running by Robinson, and a solid effort by the defense led the Bengals to another blowout win.  Now, after 10 weeks, Cleveland could hear the roar of the Bengals.  The Browns still led the division at 5-5, but Cincinnati was 4-6, while Pittsburgh was also 4-6, making this an exciting race down the stretch

In week 11, Cincinnati benefited from having the worst team in the NFC come to town, and the Bengals clawed New Orleans for an easy victory.  Meanwhile, the Steelers knocked off the Browns, roughing up Phipps and forcing old veteran Bill Nelsen to finish the game.  The three teams were now tied at 5-6, and the media were starting to get on the Bengals’ bandwagon.

Week 12 was the big one.  Cincinnati’s only really tough remaining game took them across the continent to San Diego to face a Chargers team fighting in a three-way race in the AFC West.  It was a must-win game for both teams.  San Diego would be all but eliminated with a loss, while a win and losses by the Raiders and Chiefs would give them a chance to sneak in at the end.

The game was a tough defensive struggle, and for the only time since the implementation of the short passing game, Cincinnati could not move the ball with short passes.  San Diego begged Carter to throw long, and when he did, he was off target.  The Bengals would finish with zero net passing yards this Sunday, and the running game would manage 136 yards.  Few teams win NFL games with 136 total yards, but when you have the best punt returner in football in Lemar Parrish, sometimes you win games on 83-yard punt returns, which is what Cincinnati did when they edged the Chargers by three.

Cleveland topped a breathless Oilers team, but Pittsburgh lost to Green Bay.  The Bengals and Browns stayed tied at 6-6, while Pittsburgh was still in the race at 5-7, but obviously on the verge of elimination.

Week 13 saw the NFL experts picking the obvious.  Cincinnati played at the breathless Oilers, while Cleveland was forced to play the other hot team in the league in Dallas.  The Bengals had no trouble quickly topping the Oilers, rushing for close to 200 yards, while Carter got some rest in the second half.  At the same time, Cleveland could not move the ball at all against the surging Cowboys.  They lost a defensive struggle where they could only muster a safety.  Now, with one week to play, Cincinnati led the division at 7-6, while Cleveland was 6-7.  Pittsburgh lost to Atlanta and was eliminated at 5-8.

All Cincinnati had to do to complete the miraculous turnaround from 1-6 to 8-6 was to top a weak 2-11 Boston Patriots team at Riverfront Stadium.  Cleveland had to beat Denver, as they held the tiebreaker over the Bengals should both teams finish 7-7.

It was never in doubt.  Boston was now in star franchise quarterback mode.  A loss to the Bengals would give the Patriots their choice of Plunkett or Manning.  They wanted Plunkett, and they were sure to get him.  The Patriots looked worse than the 1976 Tampa Bay Bucs would look in six years.  Cincinnati looked like the 1962 Green Bay Packers this day, as they rolled to a 45-7 victory.  Carter’s day was over early, after he went 3 for 3 for 96 yards and a TD.  Cincinnati had done the almost impossible–going from last place and 1-6 in the first half to first place and 7-0 in the second half.  The Bengals were inept against eventual Super Bowl Champion Baltimore in the first round of the playoffs when the Colts used the same tactics as the Chargers to stop the Cincinnati short passing game.  It was still an incredible year to remember in the Queen City, as a third year team won its division.

Now, can the 2018 New York Giants go from 1-7 to 9-7 and win the division?  Chances are less than the chances Cincinnati faced for multiple reasons.

First, the team at the top of the standings, Washington, is 6-3.  The Browns were never three games over .500 in 1970.  It’s possible that the Redskins could go 2-5 the rest of the way, but chances are less than 50-50 that will happen.

Second, Dallas and Philadelphia are not Pittsburgh and Houston.  You have the reigning World Champions that have yet to find their way in 2018, but they are not likely to fold.  Dallas may be an 8-8 team at best, but just one upset in the final weeks could move the Cowboys to 9-7.

Lastly, this Giants team just isn’t good enough to win eight consecutive games.  All they have done so far is beat a lowly 49ers team on Monday Night Football.  Unlike the Bengals in 1970, the 2018 Giants have a tough, almost brutal, closing schedule.  They are one-point favorites over Tampa Bay this week, but they will be underdogs in the rest of their games against the Eagles, Bears, Redskins, Titans, Colts, and Cowboys.  The more likely scenario is a 4-12 finish and not a 9-7 finish.

 

 

November 5, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 10: November 8-12, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Pittsburgh Carolina 5.5 6.1 5.2
Chicago Detroit 7.3 7.0 8.1
Cincinnati New Orleans -7.6 -7.5 -8.1
Cleveland Atlanta -5.5 -5.1 -5.0
Green Bay Miami 7.2 8.2 6.8
Indianapolis Jacksonville 1.6 0.8 1.8
Kansas City Arizona 14.8 16.1 15.7
L.A. Rams Seattle 7.8 8.6 7.6
N.Y. Jets Buffalo 8.9 8.3 8.9
Oakland L.A. Chargers -11.0 -11.8 -11.9
Philadelphia Dallas 5.9 6.2 6.3
Tampa Bay Washington -0.4 0.4 0.1
Tennessee New England -4.3 -4.7 -5.0
San Francisco N.Y. Giants 3.3 4.0 3.6

 

Home Visitor Total
Pittsburgh Carolina 47
Chicago Detroit 48.5
Cincinnati New Orleans 51
Cleveland Atlanta 49.5
Green Bay Miami 46.5
Indianapolis Jacksonville 45
Kansas City Arizona 47
L.A. Rams Seattle 49
N.Y. Jets Buffalo 38.5
Oakland L.A. Chargers 44.5
Philadelphia Dallas 41.5
Tampa Bay Washington 49
Tennessee New England 42
San Francisco N.Y. Giants 43

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings 

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 105.8 106.3 106.1 106.1 23 7-2
N. Y. Jets 97.1 96.5 96.8 96.8 22.5 3-6
Miami 95.4 95.0 95.3 95.2 22 5-4
Buffalo 90.3 90.2 89.9 90.1 16 2-7
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 106.2 106.4 106.2 106.3 23 5-2-1
Baltimore 102.7 103.0 102.6 102.8 21 4-5
Cincinnati 98.5 98.8 98.5 98.6 23.5 5-3
Cleveland 94.3 94.5 94.8 94.5 24 2-6-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Houston 100.7 100.8 100.9 100.8 24 6-3
Jacksonville 99.8 99.5 99.7 99.6 19 3-5
Tennessee 98.4 98.6 98.1 98.4 19 4-4
Indianapolis 98.5 97.3 98.4 98.1 26 3-5
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 107.9 108.4 108.5 108.3 28 8-1
LA Chargers 103.3 104.1 103.7 103.7 23.5 6-2
Denver 98.9 98.5 98.2 98.5 21 3-6
Oakland 90.3 90.3 89.8 90.1 21 1-7
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 102.3 102.5 102.1 102.3 22 4-4
Dallas 99.5 99.3 98.7 99.2 19.5 3-5
Washington 98.1 97.2 98.1 97.8 22 5-3
N.Y. Giants 95.2 95.0 95.1 95.1 20.5 1-7
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Chicago 103.9 103.7 104.6 104.1 23 5-3
Minnesota 102.3 102.5 102.2 102.3 21.5 5-3-1
Green Bay 99.6 100.2 99.1 99.6 24.5 3-4-1
Detroit 99.2 99.2 99.0 99.1 25.5 3-5
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 109.1 109.3 109.7 109.4 27.5 7-1
Carolina 103.7 103.3 104.0 103.7 24 6-2
Atlanta 102.8 102.7 102.8 102.7 25.5 4-4
Tampa Bay 95.2 95.1 95.7 95.3 27 3-5
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 107.3 108.0 107.4 107.6 27.5 8-1
Seattle 102.5 102.4 102.8 102.6 21.5 4-4
San Francisco 95.6 96.0 95.7 95.8 22.5 2-7
Arizona 96.1 95.3 95.8 95.7 19 2-6

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Kansas City
2 New England
3 Pittsburgh
4 Houston
5 L.A. Chargers
6 Cincinnati

 

NFC Seeding
1 New Orleans
2 L.A. Rams
3 Chicago
4 Philadelphia
5 Carolina
6 Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round
Pittsburgh over Cincinnati
L.A. Chargers over Houston
Chicago over Minnesota
Carolina over Philadelphia

 

Divisional Round
L.A. Chargers over Kansas City
Pittsburgh over New England
New Orleans over Carolina
L.A. Rams over Chicago

 

Conference Championship
L.A. Chargers over Pittsburgh
L.A. Rams over New Orleans

 

Super Bowl 53
L.A. Rams over L.A. Chargers

 

October 31, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for November 1-5, 2018

We have received numerous emails from our regular subscribers over the last fortnight.  So many of you want to become part of the Land Sharps.  We are flattered that you want to contribute here.  The five Land Sharps chosen to be  special guests on the PiRate Ship all have long-time personal relationships with the Captain.

Assuming there is a 2019 season for the PiRate Ratings, and who knows what one year into the future might bring, we hope to commence with a special forum that will allow you the reader to send us your picks on Mondays and Tuesdays, and we will then issue a composite of the most popular picks.  This gives you the rest of this season to test your systems so you can be ready to participate next year.

Our Land Sharps continue to post a winning spread record for the season.  All five of these experts are above the 52.5% mark that returns a profit on investment.  All five are on pace to beat the annual return of the S&P 500, as in just 9 weeks, they have an annualized return between 26% and 70%, with a congregated return of 54.4%!  The best rate of return for the S&P 500 in any of the last 30 years was 33.4% in 1997.  The highest one year gain ever was 53.99%, so our Land Sharps are currently beating the highest ever one year return of the top investment index in the nation!

Let’s hope this praise isn’t a jinx.  This is November.  In November, the Underdogs have their day.  People around the ship call this “No Fave November.”  2018 has been a year of the Dog, because 23 of the 55 underdogs last week not only covered against the spread, they won outright in upsets.  For the season, 31 double-digit Dogs have won outright.  Four of the 31 were underdogs by 3 or more touchdowns.  Better yet, all of our Land Sharps pick only college games, which means Todd Gurley cannot cost you a lot of lost investment when he takes a dive at the five yard line rather than score and allow his team to cover.

Here are this week’s Land Sharp picks

1–Buckeye Michelle   Season: 21-15-1  ROI: 12.2%

North Carolina +7 vs. Georgia Tech

Virginia Tech +2 vs. Boston College

Florida Int’l. -3 vs. Florida Atlantic

Nebraska +19 vs. Ohio St.

Iowa +3 vs. Purdue

Penn St. +10.5 vs. Michigan

Army -7 vs. Air Force

 

2–Stewed Meat  Season: 29-21-0  ROI: 11.8%

Temple +10.5 vs. Central Florida

South Alabama +16 vs. Arkansas St.

Louisiana-Monroe +7.5 vs. Georgia Southern

UTEP +1 vs. Rice

Florida Int’l. -3 vs. Florida Atlantic

 

3–Dean615  Season: 21-16-1  ROI: 11.6%

Nebraska +19 vs. Ohio St.

Iowa +3 vs. Purdue

Penn St. +10.5 vs. Michigan

Pittsburgh +7.5 vs. Virginia

Texas A&M +4 vs. Auburn

 

4. Friday Dog 13  Season 24-19-1  ROI: 7.0%

South Carolina Pk. vs. Ole Miss

East Carolina +13 vs. Memphis

West Virginia +2 vs. Texas

Iowa +3 vs. Purdue

Northwestern +9.5 vs. Notre Dame

 

5. Cal Gal Tiffany  Season 24-20-0  ROI: 4.5%

Army -7 vs. Air Force

West Virginia +2 vs. Texas

Arizona St. +7.5 vs. Utah

Oregon -7.5 vs. UCLA

Stanford +10 vs. Washington

California +10.5 vs. Washington St.

Hawaii +18.5 vs. Utah St.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Selections

COLLEGE PICKS

10-Point Teasers 3 teams @ 11-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Iowa St. Kansas 4 Iowa St.
Air Force Army 3 Army
Eastern Michigan Central Michigan 3.5 Eastern Michigan
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Wyoming San Jose St. 3.5 Wyoming
Illinois Minnesota 0.5 Minnesota
Cincinnati Navy 3 Cincinnati
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Boston College Virginia Tech 12 Virginia Tech
Michigan Penn St. 20.5 Penn St.
Missouri Florida 4 Florida
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Houston SMU 3.5 Houston
Northwestern Notre Dame 1 Notre Dame
Florida Atlantic Florida Int’l. 7 Florida Int’l.

 

13-Point Teaser 4 @ 13-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Northern Illinois Akron 19.5 Akron
Middle Tennessee Western Kentucky 0.5 Middle Tennessee
Kentucky Georgia 4 Georgia
Rice UTEP 14 UTEP

 

Money Line Parlays
3 Teams @ +172
Must Win Must Lose
Florida Int’l. Florida Atlantic
Georgia Kentucky
Notre Dame Northwestern
3 Teams @ +125
Must Win Must Lose
Florida Missouri
Minnesota Illinois
Middle Tennessee Western Kentucky
4 Teams @+180
Must Win Must Lose
Syracuse Wake Forest
Army Air Force
Eastern Michigan Central Michigan
Wyoming San Jose St.
2 Teams @+800 [Big Payout on 2 Upsets]
Must Win Must Lose
Texas A&M Auburn
Arizona St. Utah

 

NFL PICKS

10-Point Teasers 3 @ 11-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
San Francisco Oakland 13 Oakland
Chicago Buffalo Pk Chicago
Tampa Bay Carolina 3.5 Carolina
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Cleveland Kansas City 1.5 Kansas City
Washington Atlanta 12 Atlanta
Green Bay New England 4.5 New England

 

13-point Teasers 4 @ 13-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Minnesota Detroit 18 Detroit
Baltimore Pittsburgh 16 Pittsburgh
Seattle L.A. Chargers 15 L.A. Chargers
Houston Denver 9 Denver
Team 1 Team 2 Total Pick
San Francisco Oakland 32.5 Over
Minnesota Detroit 35.5 Over
Cleveland Kansas City 38.5 Over
Miami N.Y. Jets 32 Over
Team 1 Team 2 Total Pick
Baltimore Pittsburgh 57.5 Under
Washington Atlanta 33.5 Over
Seattle L.A. Chargers 35 Over
New England Green Bay 66.5 Under

Remember as always: All selections you see here on this site are strictly for entertainment purposes only.  None of the Land Sharps actually wager money on their selections, and the Captain and sailors on the PiRate ship do not wager money on their picks.  We recommend you follow our lead.

Coming Friday: Our final analytical look at how the Mid-term elections look based on our unique mathematical formula used when analyzing other political pollsters.

We handicap each of 10 major pollsters, adjusting their polls by their percentage bias from the most recent elections.  We then apply our own biased formula similar to the PiRate Bias Ratings.  By Bias, we are talking about mathematical bias and not political bias.  Our objective is to be accurate and not to be political.  We make no claims to how accurate these polls will be.  So, please vote and pay no attention to our predictions when it comes to making your own personal decisions.  The objective in voting is to vote for the candidates that best represent your views and beliefs, and not to care what our views and beliefs may be or how accurate our statistical analysis may be.  Just don’t vote for the Easter Bunny, the Man in the Moon, or Lassie, three actual write-ins in local elections in this area in the past.  If you don’t like your candidate choices and wish to write-in a candidate (that will not count if they have not qualified as a write-in), at least write in the name of a famous person that you respect for their opinions and beliefs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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