The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 25, 2021

PiRate Ratings–NFL for Week 8: October 28-November 1, 2021

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
ArizonaGreen Bay7.48.78.0
AtlantaCarolina1.11.11.9
BuffaloMiami17.416.717.2
ChicagoSan Francisco-1.8-1.4-1.8
ClevelandPittsburgh2.93.72.4
DenverWashington7.77.57.9
DetroitPhiladelphia-2.1-2.0-3.2
HoustonLA Rams-16.2-18.1-16.3
IndianapolisTennessee4.33.63.6
LA ChargersNew England3.95.25.0
MinnesotaDallas0.8-0.10.5
N.Y. JetsCincinnati-5.1-5.2-4.3
New OrleansTampa Bay1.80.52.9
SeattleJacksonville16.014.215.8
Kansas CityN.Y. Giants13.914.014.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
ArizonaGreen Bay53
AtlantaCarolina51
BuffaloMiami45.5
ChicagoSan Francisco38.5
ClevelandPittsburgh43.5
DenverWashington37
DetroitPhiladelphia47
HoustonLA Rams51.5
IndianapolisTennessee51.5
LA ChargersNew England43
MinnesotaDallas53
N.Y. JetsCincinnati47
New OrleansTampa Bay50
SeattleJacksonville47.5
Kansas CityN.Y. Giants50.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo110.1109.9110.5110.1254-2
New England101.8101.1101.4101.4193-4
Miami95.295.595.795.520.51-6
N. Y. Jets88.088.588.488.3221-5

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore105.2104.8105.1105.0255-2
Cincinnati102.6103.4102.7102.9255-2
Cleveland101.6101.7100.8101.425.54-3
Pittsburgh101.6100.9101.3101.3183-3

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Indianapolis104.0103.5103.8103.8243-4
Tennessee103.0103.2103.5103.227.55-2
Jacksonville90.091.589.990.5231-5
Houston88.787.488.888.3241-6

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City102.3102.2102.0102.230.53-4
LA Chargers100.9101.2101.2101.1244-2
Las Vegas97.998.298.498.2275-2
Denver98.398.197.998.1173-4


N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas102.8103.9102.4103.030.55-1
Philadelphia95.895.796.596.0212-5
N.Y. Giants95.795.695.195.5202-5
Washington93.593.693.093.4202-5

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay103.8103.6104.0103.826.56-1
Minnesota100.6100.8100.0100.522.53-3
Chicago95.395.494.995.215.53-4
Detroit91.891.991.991.9260-7

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay110.2110.1109.8110.028.56-1
New Orleans107.8106.2108.2107.421.54-2
Atlanta96.396.297.496.628.53-3
Carolina95.194.995.195.122.53-4

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Arizona108.3109.3109.3109.026.57-0
LA Rams108.0108.5108.1108.227.56-1
Seattle103.2103.0102.9103.024.52-5
San Francisco100.4100.2100.0100.2232-4

This Week’s Playoff Projections

If Season Ended Today
AFC
1Cincinnati
2Las Vegas
3Tennessee
4Buffalo
5Baltimore
6LA Chargers
7Cleveland

NFC
1Arizona
2Tampa Bay
3Green Bay
4Dallas
5LA Rams
6New Orleans
7Minnesota
Playoff Projection Seeds
AFC Seeding
1LA Chargers
2Buffalo
3Baltimore
4Tennessee
5Cincinnati
6Las Vegas
7Cleveland

NFC Seeding
1Arizona
2Tampa Bay
3Green Bay
4Dallas
5LA Rams
6Minnesota
7New Orleans
Wildcard Round
Buffalo over Cleveland
Las Vegas over Baltimore
Cincinnati over Tennessee
Tampa Bay over New Orleans
Green Bay over Minnesota
LA Rams over Dallas

Divisional Round
LA Chargers over Las Vegas
Buffalo over Cincinnati
LA Rams over Arizona
Tampa Bay over Green Bay

Conference Championship
LA Chargers over Buffalo
LA Rams over Tampa Bay

Super Bowl 56 (LA)
LA Rams over LA Chargers

October 18, 2021

PiRate Ratings–NFL for Week 7, October 21-25, 2021

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
ClevelandDenver6.36.65.9
Green BayWashington13.012.713.8
TennesseeKansas City-0.7-0.6-0.3
MiamiAtlanta1.31.90.9
New EnglandN.Y. Jets11.49.89.9
N.Y. GiantsCarolina-0.8-0.8-1.9
BaltimoreCincinnati12.211.112.4
Las VegasPhiladelphia4.54.73.7
LA RamsDetroit20.120.720.5
ArizonaHouston21.724.022.3
Tampa BayChicago14.513.913.9
San FranciscoIndianapolis2.22.72.4
SeattleNew Orleans-1.40.4-2.1

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
ClevelandDenver43.5
Green BayWashington48
TennesseeKansas City60.5
MiamiAtlanta50
New EnglandN.Y. Jets38.5
N.Y. GiantsCarolina43.5
BaltimoreCincinnati48.5
Las VegasPhiladelphia47
LA RamsDetroit54
ArizonaHouston51.5
Tampa BayChicago44
San FranciscoIndianapolis47
SeattleNew Orleans48.5

Teams With Byes This Week

Buffalo
Pittsburgh
Jacksonville
LA Chargers
Dallas
Minnesota

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo109.8109.6110.2109.8254-2
New England99.698.798.999.1182-4
Miami95.495.896.095.7211-5
N. Y. Jets91.291.991.991.720.51-4


NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore108.0107.6108.1107.924.55-1
Cleveland101.7101.8100.9101.5263-3
Pittsburgh101.3100.6101.0101.0183-3
Cincinnati98.899.698.799.0244-2


SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Indianapolis102.6102.0102.2102.3242-4
Tennessee101.3101.4101.6101.428.54-2
Jacksonville89.791.289.690.2231-5
Houston89.488.189.689.124.51-5


WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City104.5104.5104.4104.5323-3
LA Chargers100.6100.9100.9100.8244-2
Denver98.498.298.098.217.53-3
Las Vegas97.697.897.897.726.54-2


N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas102.5103.6102.1102.730.55-1
Philadelphia96.196.197.196.420.52-4
Washington93.693.893.193.5212-4
N.Y. Giants93.793.592.893.320.51-5


NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay103.7103.4103.9103.7275-1
Minnesota100.3100.599.7100.222.53-3
Chicago97.097.396.997.115.53-3
Detroit91.591.591.491.526.50-6


SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay108.5108.2107.8108.228.55-1
New Orleans107.7105.9108.1107.222.53-2
Carolina97.497.397.797.5233-3
Atlanta96.195.997.196.4292-3


WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
LA Rams108.6109.2108.9108.927.55-1
Arizona108.1109.1109.0108.7276-0
Seattle103.3103.3103.0103.2262-4
San Francisco101.8101.7101.6101.7232-3

Playoff Projections

Current Playoff Seedings

AFC
1Baltimore
2LA Chargers
3Tennessee
4Buffalo
5Cincinnati
6Las Vegas
7Pittsburgh
NFC
1Arizona
2Tampa Bay
3Green Bay
4Dallas
5LA Rams
6New Orleans
7Minnesota

PiRate Projections

AFC Seeding
1Baltimore
2Buffalo
3Kansas City
4Tennessee
5Pittsburgh
6Cincinnati
7Las Vegas
NFC Seeding
1Tampa Bay
2Arizona
3Green Bay
4Dallas
5LA Rams
6Minnesota
7New Orleans

Projected Playoff Rounds

Wildcard Round
Buffalo over Las Vegas
Kansas City over Cincinnati
Pittsburgh over Tennessee
Arizona over New Orleans
Green Bay over Minnesota
LA Rams over Dallas


Divisional Round
Baltimore over Pittsburgh
Kansas City over Buffalo
Tampa Bay over LA Rams
Arizona over Green Bay


Conference Championship
Kansas City over Baltimore
Tampa Bay over Arizona


Super Bowl 56 (LA)
Kansas City over Tampa Bay

October 11, 2021

PiRate Ratings–NFL for Week 6, October 14-18, 2021

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
PhiladelphiaTampa Bay-9.6-9.5-8.1
Jacksonville (N)Miami-7.3-6.2-8.6
IndianapolisHouston13.013.512.2
ChicagoGreen Bay-3.8-3.0-4.0
WashingtonKansas City-5.8-5.4-5.8
CarolinaMinnesota0.1-0.21.5
BaltimoreLA Chargers5.64.55.0
DetroitCincinnati-1.2-1.8-0.7
N.Y. GiantsLA Rams-8.2-8.8-9.0
ClevelandArizona0.90.2-0.6
DenverLas Vegas6.56.56.4
New EnglandDallas0.1-1.9-0.2
PittsburghSeattle1.00.31.0
TennesseeBuffalo-7.1-6.9-7.8

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
PhiladelphiaTampa Bay49
Jacksonville (N)Miami44
IndianapolisHouston50
ChicagoGreen Bay43
WashingtonKansas City54
CarolinaMinnesota43.5
BaltimoreLA Chargers49.5
DetroitCincinnati50.5
N.Y. GiantsLA Rams48
ClevelandArizona53
DenverLas Vegas42
New EnglandDallas47.5
PittsburghSeattle44.5
TennesseeBuffalo52.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo110.6110.5111.3110.824.54-1
New England99.698.798.999.117.52-3
Miami96.496.897.396.8211-4
N. Y. Jets90.991.691.691.420.51-4

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore105.7105.1105.6105.5254-1
Cleveland103.7103.9103.0103.5263-2
Pittsburgh101.3100.6101.0101.0182-3
Cincinnati97.197.996.897.3243-2

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Indianapolis101.5100.8101.0101.124.51-4
Tennessee100.5100.5100.5100.5283-2
Houston91.089.891.390.725.51-4
Jacksonville89.190.688.789.5230-5

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City103.6103.5103.3103.532.52-3
LA Chargers102.6103.1103.1102.924.54-1
Denver99.899.799.699.716.53-2
Las Vegas96.296.396.296.225.53-2

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas102.5103.6102.1102.7304-1
Philadelphia96.095.996.996.320.52-3
N.Y. Giants95.795.695.095.420.51-4
Washington94.895.194.594.821.52-3

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay103.5103.1103.6103.4274-1
Minnesota100.3100.599.5100.121.52-3
Chicago97.297.697.297.3163-2
Detroit93.593.593.693.526.50-5

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay108.6108.4108.0108.328.54-1
New Orleans107.4105.6107.8106.922.53-2
Carolina97.497.397.997.6223-2
Atlanta95.895.696.896.1292-3

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
LA Rams106.9107.4107.0107.127.54-1
Arizona105.8106.7106.6106.4275-0
Seattle103.3103.3103.0103.226.52-3
San Francisco101.5101.4101.3101.4232-3

This Week’s Playoff Projections

If the Playoffs Began Today

AFC
1LA Chargers
2Baltimore
3Buffalo
4Tennessee
5Cincinnati
6Las Vegas
7Denver

NFC
1Arizona
2Dallas
3Tampa Bay
4Green Bay
5LA Rams
6Chicago
7Carolina

Projected Playoff Positions

AFC Seeding
1Buffalo
2LA Chargers
3Cleveland
4Tennessee
5Baltimore
6Cincinnati
7Denver

NFC Seeding
1Tampa Bay
2Arizona
3Green Bay
4Dallas
5LA Rams
6Chicago
7Carolina

Projected Playoff Rounds

Wildcard Round
LA Chargers over Denver
Cleveland over Cincinnsti
Baltimore over Tennessee
Arizona over Carolina
Green Bay over Chicago
LA Rams over Dallas

Divisional Round
Buffalo over Baltimore
LA Chargers over Cleveland
Tampa Bay over LA Rams
Arizona over Green Bay

Conference Championship
Buffalo over LA Chargers
Tampa Bay over Arizona

Super Bowl 56 (LA)
Tampa Bay over Buffalo

October 4, 2021

PiRate Ratings NFL For Week 5–October 7-11, 2021

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
SeattleLA Rams1.51.01.5
Atlanta (n)N.Y. Jets4.43.64.4
Tampa BayMiami10.29.48.6
CarolinaPhiladelphia5.96.45.9
WashingtonNew Orleans-9.6-7.1-10.3
JacksonvilleTennessee-5.6-4.1-5.5
MinnesotaDetroit10.911.410.3
PittsburghDenver4.23.43.8
CincinnatiGreen Bay-3.3-2.3-3.8
HoustonNew England-6.4-6.7-5.3
Las VegasChicago4.03.94.4
LA ChargersCleveland0.60.81.9
DallasN.Y. Giants7.58.67.3
ArizonaSan Francisco7.38.58.4
Kansas CityBuffalo-1.1-0.8-1.7
BaltimoreIndianapolis7.67.98.4

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
SeattleLA Rams55.5
Atlanta (n)N.Y. Jets49.5
Tampa BayMiami47.5
CarolinaPhiladelphia42.5
WashingtonNew Orleans43
JacksonvilleTennessee50.5
MinnesotaDetroit50
PittsburghDenver33
CincinnatiGreen Bay51
HoustonNew England43
Las VegasChicago43.5
LA ChargersCleveland47.5
DallasN.Y. Giants48.5
ArizonaSan Francisco52.5
Kansas CityBuffalo57
BaltimoreIndianapolis49.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo109.0108.8109.5109.124.53-1
New England99.698.798.999.117.51-3
Miami98.398.799.298.7201-3
N. Y. Jets91.191.892.091.720.51-3

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore105.9105.4106.0105.8253-1
Cleveland103.8104.1103.1103.724.53-1
Pittsburgh101.1100.4100.7100.7171-3
Cincinnati97.197.996.897.3243-1

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Indianapolis101.3100.5100.6100.824.51-3
Tennessee99.199.198.999.0282-2
Jacksonville91.092.590.891.522.50-4
Houston90.789.591.090.425.51-3

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City104.9104.9104.8104.932.52-2
LA Chargers102.0102.4102.5102.3233-1
Denver100.099.999.999.9163-1
Las Vegas97.697.897.897.726.53-1

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas101.3102.4100.7101.5293-1
N.Y. Giants96.996.896.496.719.51-3
Philadelphia95.495.196.195.520.51-3
Washington94.895.394.594.9212-2

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay103.5103.1103.6103.4273-1
Minnesota100.8101.2100.2100.722.51-3
Chicago96.196.495.996.1172-2
Detroit93.092.892.992.927.50-4

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
New Orleans107.4105.4107.8106.9222-2
Tampa Bay106.4106.2105.8106.127.53-1
Carolina98.398.499.098.6223-1
Atlanta95.695.496.495.8291-3

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Arizona105.8106.8106.7106.4284-0
LA Rams106.0106.5105.9106.1283-1
Seattle104.5104.5104.4104.527.52-2
San Francisco101.5101.3101.2101.324.52-2

Playoff Projections begin next week!

September 27, 2021

PiRate Ratings NFL For September 30-October 4, 2021

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:27 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
CincinnatiJacksonville9.79.010.0
AtlantaWashington4.03.76.0
ChicagoDetroit4.75.04.0
N.Y. JetsTennessee-5.4-4.9-4.6
MinnesotaCleveland1.01.31.5
MiamiIndianapolis2.64.24.8
DallasCarolina5.36.33.2
New OrleansN.Y. Giants16.814.618.2
PhiladelphiaKansas City-6.6-6.8-5.1
BuffaloHouston16.417.316.1
LA RamsArizona7.47.16.8
San FranciscoSeattle1.21.21.4
DenverBaltimore0.61.40.8
Green BayPittsburgh4.95.45.3
New EnglandTampa Bay-4.0-4.7-4.1
LA ChargersLas Vegas6.76.96.7

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
CincinnatiJacksonville46.5
AtlantaWashington48
ChicagoDetroit45.5
N.Y. JetsTennessee48.5
MinnesotaCleveland49.5
MiamiIndianapolis44.5
DallasCarolina49
New OrleansN.Y. Giants41.5
PhiladelphiaKansas City50.5
BuffaloHouston51.5
LA RamsArizona56
San FranciscoSeattle52
DenverBaltimore42.5
Green BayPittsburgh44
New EnglandTampa Bay46.5
LA ChargersLas Vegas50.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

September 28, 2021
A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L
Buffalo106.9106.7107.2106.9252-1
Miami99.6100.2100.8100.2201-2
New England99.598.698.899.018.51-2
N. Y. Jets90.991.591.691.420.50-3

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore104.3103.6104.2104.0252-1
Cleveland103.3103.5102.4103.125.52-1
Pittsburgh101.3100.6101.0101.0171-2
Cincinnati97.498.297.397.6242-1

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tennessee99.399.499.399.3282-1
Indianapolis100.099.099.099.324.50-3
Houston93.592.394.093.326.51-2
Jacksonville90.792.290.391.122.50-3

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City104.7104.6104.3104.5311-2
Denver101.9102.0102.0102.017.53-0
LA Chargers101.7102.0102.0101.923.52-1
Las Vegas97.998.298.398.1273-0

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L
Dallas101.2102.3100.2101.2282-1
Philadelphia95.695.496.695.919.51-2
N.Y. Giants95.395.394.595.019.50-3
Washington94.494.893.794.3201-2

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay103.3102.9103.3103.2272-1
Minnesota101.3101.8100.9101.3241-2
Chicago95.996.195.495.817.51-2
Detroit93.293.193.493.2280-3

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
New Orleans109.0106.9109.7108.5222-1
Tampa Bay106.5106.3105.9106.2282-1
Carolina98.498.599.598.8213-0
Atlanta96.095.997.296.4281-2

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
LA Rams107.6108.2107.7107.8283-0
Seattle103.9103.8103.6103.827.51-2
Arizona103.2104.1103.9103.7283-0
San Francisco102.1102.0102.0102.024.52-1

September 20, 2021

PiRate Ratings NFL For September 23-27, 2021

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
HoustonCarolina1.40.11.2
JacksonvilleArizona-9.0-8.0-9.8
TennesseeIndianapolis-0.60.4-0.1
DetroitBaltimore-9.5-9.1-9.8
BuffaloWashington13.112.513.7
New EnglandNew Orleans-3.6-1.8-4.9
Kansas CityLA Chargers9.28.98.8
N.Y. GiantsAtlanta3.74.01.7
ClevelandChicago7.16.96.3
PittsburghCincinnati11.510.011.7
Las VegasMiami1.51.31.1
DenverN.Y. Jets10.99.99.8
LA RamsTampa Bay2.33.22.9
MinnesotaSeattle-2.3-1.6-3.1
San FranciscoGreen Bay2.63.23.1
DallasPhiladelphia5.16.03.1

This Week’s PiRate Rating Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
HoustonCarolina49.5
JacksonvilleArizona50.5
TennesseeIndianapolis53.5
DetroitBaltimore55
BuffaloWashington42
New EnglandNew Orleans40.5
Kansas CityLA Chargers54.5
N.Y. GiantsAtlanta50.5
ClevelandChicago45
PittsburghCincinnati41.5
Las VegasMiami45.5
DenverN.Y. Jets39.5
LA RamsTampa Bay56
MinnesotaSeattle51.5
San FranciscoGreen Bay50.5
DallasPhiladelphia44.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo105.8105.6105.9105.723.51-1
New England100.9100.3100.3100.518.51-1
Miami99.299.7100.299.719.51-1
N. Y. Jets92.593.693.593.221.50-2

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore104.7104.1104.9104.6261-1
Pittsburgh103.7103.0103.6103.417.51-1
Cleveland102.1102.2101.0101.8261-1
Cincinnati95.296.094.995.4241-1

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Indianapolis101.1100.2100.4100.6250-2
Tennessee98.098.197.898.028.51-1
Houston95.694.496.395.527.51-1
Jacksonville90.992.690.691.422.50-2

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City106.2106.2106.0106.1311-1
Denver100.5100.4100.3100.4182-0
LA Chargers100.1100.3100.2100.223.51-1
Las Vegas97.798.198.398.0262-0


N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas99.6100.598.699.626.51-1
Philadelphia97.597.598.597.8181-1
N.Y. Giants96.196.295.395.921.50-2
Washington95.796.195.295.718.51-1

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay102.7102.1102.4102.426.51-1
Minnesota99.9100.499.299.8240-2
Chicago98.098.397.798.0191-1
Detroit92.792.592.692.6290-2

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
New Orleans107.5105.1108.1106.9221-1
Tampa Bay107.1106.9106.6106.9282-0
Carolina96.796.897.697.1222-0
Atlanta95.495.296.695.7290-2

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
LA Rams106.5107.1106.5106.7282-0
Seattle105.2105.1105.2105.227.51-1
Arizona102.9103.6103.5103.3282-0
San Francisco102.3102.4102.5102.4242-0

September 15, 2021

PiRate Picks For September 16-20, 2021

After a swing and a miss on opening week of the football season, last week we went two for two with big wins. Not only did we win both of our Money Line Parlays, we mentioned a first week NFL system that has worked well over the course of a couple of decades. We told you that even though we are only issuing Money Line Parlays this year, that playing the NFL underdogs of 1/2 to 3 points in Week 1 was a winning proposition. There were seven such underdogs last week, and playing them and the points went 5-2.

For the year, our pretend bank account has wagered pretend money on four games, $400 at $100 per wager, and we have received $604.56 in return from the pretend book. That’s a return on investment of 51.14%.

Now, the pressure is on to keep that profit and not give it back to the imaginary book. We begin including NFL games this week, and we have chosen four different parlays, each with more than +120 odds. Additionally, we are doing something we have only done three or four times in the last decade–combine a college game and NFL game into a parlay. We are number’s enthusiasts here on the PiRate ship, so sometimes we are left with orphan numbers needing to go to a matchmaking service. Combining college and pro football games into a hopeful match is rare for us, but there is no real reason not to do it. We just like to know at 1 AM on Sundays whether we won or not.

Enjoy these four parlays, but remember that these are for entertainment purposes only. We strongly urge you not to wager real money on these picks unless you have done your own research, and this feature merely verifies your own findings.

This Week’s Money Line Parlays

Date:
Sept 16-20

Odds:

+182
Must WinOpponent
Kansas St.Nevada
TroySouthern Miss.

Odds:+126.42
Must WinOpponent
Mississippi St.Memphis
DenverJacksonville

Odds:+140.08
Must WinOpponent
LA RamsIndianapolis
Kansas CityBaltimore

Odds:+127.91
Must WinOpponent
ArizonaMinnesota
SeattleTennessee

September 13, 2021

PiRate Ratings NFL Football Week 2: Sep 16-20, 2021

PiRate Ratings Week 2 NFL Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
WashingtonN.Y. Giants2.22.32.4
CarolinaNew Orleans-7.8-5.3-7.5
ClevelandHouston9.510.87.6
ChicagoCincinnati5.55.15.7
PittsburghLas Vegas9.58.48.8
MiamiBuffalo-3.6-2.8-2.7
IndianapolisLA Rams-2.3-3.9-3.1
PhiladelphiaSan Francisco-1.8-1.9-1.0
JacksonvilleDenver-6.5-4.8-6.7
N.Y. JetsNew England-5.9-4.2-4.2
ArizonaMinnesota6.26.57.8
Tampa BayAtlanta14.814.613.0
SeattleTennessee10.29.910.5
LA ChargersDallas3.42.84.6
BaltimoreKansas City1.00.41.5
Green BayDetroit11.911.311.4

PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
WashingtonN.Y. Giants38
CarolinaNew Orleans46
ClevelandHouston53.5
ChicagoCincinnati43
PittsburghLas Vegas43.5
MiamiBuffalo44
IndianapolisLA Rams53
PhiladelphiaSan Francisco44
JacksonvilleDenver40.5
N.Y. JetsNew England41
ArizonaMinnesota50
Tampa BayAtlanta54
SeattleTennessee56
LA ChargersDallas52
BaltimoreKansas City55
Green BayDetroit55.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Week 2
A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo105.8105.6105.9105.7240-1
New England100.9100.3100.3100.5190-1
Miami99.299.7100.299.7201-0
N. Y. Jets92.593.693.593.2220-1

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore104.7104.1104.9104.6250-1
Pittsburgh103.7103.0103.6103.417.51-0
Cleveland102.1102.2101.0101.8260-1
Cincinnati95.296.094.995.4241-0

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Indianapolis101.1100.2100.4100.6250-1
Tennessee98.098.197.898.028.50-1
Houston95.694.496.395.527.51-0
Jacksonville90.992.690.691.422.50-1

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City106.2106.2106.0106.1301-0
LA Chargers100.1100.3100.2100.224.51-0
Denver100.5100.4100.3100.4181-0
Las Vegas97.798.198.398.0261-0

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas99.6100.598.699.627.50-1
Philadelphia97.597.598.597.8191-0
N.Y. Giants96.196.295.395.920.50-1
Washington95.796.195.295.717.50-1

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay102.4101.7101.9102.026.50-1
Minnesota99.7100.198.799.5230-1
Chicago98.298.698.198.3190-1
Detroit93.092.993.193.0290-1

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
New Orleans107.5105.1108.1106.9231-0
Tampa Bay107.1106.9106.6106.926.51-0
Carolina96.796.897.697.1231-0
Atlanta95.495.296.695.727.50-1

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
LA Rams106.5107.1106.5106.7281-0
Seattle105.2105.1105.2105.227.51-0
Arizona102.9103.6103.5103.3271-0
San Francisco102.3102.4102.5102.4251-0

September 5, 2021

PiRate Ratings NFL For Week 1

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:41 am

Week 1 PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
Tampa BayDallas11.310.212.4
BuffaloPittsburgh7.78.68.5
CarolinaN.Y. Jets7.46.47.5
HoustonJacksonville5.01.55.6
TennesseeArizona3.83.43.4
WashingtonLA Chargers2.02.21.5
AtlantaPhiladelphia6.36.47.1
IndianapolisSeattle1.50.81.2
CincinnatiMinnesota-2.8-2.7-2.4
DetroitSan Francisco-5.8-5.9-6.0
Kansas CityCleveland7.37.48.8
New EnglandMiami5.34.23.6
N.Y. GiantsDenver1.31.91.1
New OrleansGreen Bay-0.8-3.1-0.1
LA RamsChicago8.08.07.7
Las VegasBaltimore-4.7-3.9-4.8

Week 1 PiRate Rating Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
Tampa BayDallas54
BuffaloPittsburgh41.5
CarolinaN.Y. Jets46
HoustonJacksonville49
TennesseeArizona56.5
WashingtonLA Chargers43
AtlantaPhiladelphia48.5
IndianapolisSeattle53.5
CincinnatiMinnesota46
DetroitSan Francisco52
Kansas City
Cleveland55
New EnglandMiami40
N.Y. GiantsDenver38.5
New OrleansGreen Bay50.5
LA RamsChicago47
Las VegasBaltimore51

Week 1 PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo107.1107.1107.5107.2240-0
New England101.2100.6100.6100.819.50-0
Miami98.999.499.999.420.50-0
N. Y. Jets92.493.593.393.122.50-0

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore105.1104.5105.5105.0250-0
Pittsburgh102.4101.5102.0102.017.50-0
Cleveland102.0102.0100.6101.525.50-0
Cincinnati94.795.494.294.823.50-0

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Indianapolis102.3101.4101.8101.925.50-0
Tennessee100.6100.8100.6100.7290-0
Houston94.593.095.094.2270-0
Jacksonville92.094.091.992.7220-0

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City106.3106.4106.4106.429.50-0
LA Chargers99.799.899.799.724.50-0
Denver99.098.798.698.8180-0
Las Vegas97.397.797.797.6260-0

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas99.2100.197.999.1280-0
Washington98.699.198.298.618.50-0
N.Y. Giants97.397.696.797.220.50-0
Philadelphia94.894.795.595.0200-0

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay105.2104.8104.9105.0270-0
Minnesota100.0100.599.299.922.50-0
Chicago99.5100.099.699.7190-0
Detroit93.193.093.293.1280-0

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay107.5107.3107.3107.4260-0
New Orleans104.4101.7104.8103.623.50-0
Atlanta98.198.099.698.628.50-0
Carolina96.896.997.897.223.50-0

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
LA Rams104.5105.0104.3104.6280-0
Seattle103.8103.7103.6103.7280-0
San Francisco101.9102.0102.1102.0240-0
Arizona99.8100.4100.2100.127.50-0

June 30, 2021

PiRate Ratings 2021 NFL Draft Grades

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:04 am

In recent years, we have heard from you that you would like to see our NFL Draft Grades with an explanation of why our grades are different from the mainstream. We started this service last year mostly to fill space at a time where it looked like there might not be a season. Looking back at the stats for the post, apparently it was about as popular as our March Madness Bracketology reveal, so definitely we are repeating the process this year.

First, to explain the uniqueness of our draft coverage. We do not look at the players drafted trying to predict what type of career they might have. If a team drafts a quarterback in the first round but has no plans to start this player for at least a few years, the selection might be worthy of an A+ selection by other services, and we would agree using their parameters.

However, our draft grades have a different purpose. We are an integrative computerized/human input rating service. The only reason we have to assign a grade to the draft is by calculating how it alters the teams’ ratings between week 17 and the playoffs the previous season and week 1 of the approaching season. That quarterback, for instance Jordan Love, might eventually be the best one in his draft class around 2023. However, when Love was drafted, it was almost a wasted pick as it failed to affect the Packers’ ratings any more than trading a tested backup for an untested backup. In other words, it was an ultra slight negative.

How does each drafted player appear to affect the team that drafted him in week 1 of the coming season? If he figures to see considerable playing time, that means something. If he figures to start, that means something more. If he figures to be an immediate impact player, that really means something. If he was the teams’ first round pick, whether or not he contributes in the coming year is no different than if he is the 7th round pick. Once, the season starts, teams get no bonus or punishment for playing the 7th round pick over the 1st round pick.

Next, say a team only drafted a couple of players due to trades, but the few they have all figure to contribute immediately. At the same time another team might have piled up picks and took 10 to 12 players, only half that may figure to contribute immediately. We don’t reward the few picks team over the several picks team. Having more picks brings a bonus, because the potential is there for many more players to potentially contribute. So, when Mike Ditka traded his entire draft to get the pick that brought New Orleans Ricky Williams, we figured that Williams would immediately start as the featured back, but the Saints’ overall grade that year was a D-. They had numerous holes to fill on that roster and failed to fill any of them. The bump forward from 3.5 yards per rush to 3.7 yards per rush did nothing to make a 6-10 team better, and when they went 3-13 with three different starting quarterbacks finishing with a QB rating under 60, Williams would have needed to average more yards per game than Jim Brown in his prime to make much of a difference.

It is not an exact science, but neither is a any computer power rating update. However, teams must be adjusted from the end of one season to the start of the next. There has to be some criteria used that approximates improvement or decline in the best method available to the update process. Anybody could have guessed that Tom Brady going from New England to Tampa Bay would totally alter the week 1 power rating of the two teams. As a matter of fact, quarterback is by far the most important factor in the update process. Blind-side tackle is the next most important, and the defensive rush ends are next most important. Each position down to long-snapper on special teams has its own handicapped factor that can influence the ratings update.

Now that you know our process, take a look at our grading scale. We don’t actually use a letter grade as you will see here today, as that means nothing to the rating. There is an internal number that becomes part of an algorithmic equation that adds value to a team’s power rating (occasionally deducts from a power rating if a team has a fire sale and starts a major rebuild.

Our grading scale starts at 0 and maxes out at 10, but only in theory. No team has ever come close to either extreme. Realistically, our draft scores range from a low of 3.0 to a high of 9.0 Anything above 8.0 means a team’s draft class should help them immediately in week 1. Of course, the draft is but one of many factors that go into this, and the overall great draft can be reversed by the loss of many regulars from the previous year.

A score of 6.0 is about par. Teams might become Super Bowl contenders with a par draft just because one key player contributed to the cause. A score under 4.0 means the team will see little to no immediate benefit from their draft.

Here are the scores from first to worst for the 2021 NFL Draft.

TeamDraft Rating
Chicago Bears8.38
Cleveland Browns8.13
Los Angeles Chargers8.13
New York Giants7.88
Miami Dolphins7.63
New York Jets7.63
New England Patriots7.25
Denver Broncos7.00
Atlanta Falcons6.88
Jacksonville Jaguars6.88
Detroit Lions6.75
Philadelphia Eagles6.50
Tennessee Titans6.50
Baltimore Ravens6.13
Minnesota Vikings6.13
Buffalo Bills6.00
Washington Football Team6.00
Kansas City Chiefs5.88
San Francisco 49ers5.88
Carolina Panthers5.75
Cincinnati Bengals5.50
Tampa Bay Bucaneers5.38
Dallas Cowboys5.00
Pittsburgh Steelers5.00
Los Angeles Rams4.88
Arizona Cardinals4.63
Indianapolis Colts4.63
Green Bay Packers4.25
New Orleans Saints3.63
Houston Texans3.38
Las Vegas Raiders3.13
Seattle Seahawks3.13

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