PiRate Picks–October 9-10, 2021

Last week, time constraints limited this weekly feature to the bare minimum. We have plenty of time this week, so rather than just list the games we have chosen, there’s time to go a little more in-depth with our selections.

First, we made a minimal profit of imaginary revenue last week, as we hit on the long odds 4-game parlay at +372.50 with Texas beating TCU, Wake Forest beating Louisville, South Carolina beating Troy, and Oklahoma State holding on to edge Baylor.

This week presented us with numerous opportunities where certain factors triggered plays. We ended up trimming it to eight parlays, and all but one game coming on Saturday. We had one key Sunday game but could not find an NFL partner for the game, so it attached to other college games to give us the biggest odds of the week. Without further adieu, here are our picks for this week. Remember, this is for entertainment purposes only, and we highly encourage you not to wager real money on these selections, unless you have other research that the information herein merely endorses.

Odds:	+153.06
Must Win	Opponent
Wake Forest	Syracuse
Baylor	West Virginia

This first parlay is cut and dry. We believe that the public is not all that high on the two favorites. Wake Forest is supposed to be weak most years, but Dave Clawson has the Demon Deacons creeping up on Clemson for best in the Atlantic Division of the ACC. Baylor came oh so close to knocking off Oklahoma State in Stillwater last week. Had they pulled that win off, the Bears might be approaching the Top 10. West Virginia has played a tough schedule in a short time, and we feel they might show some fatigue in this game.

Odds:	+155
Must Win	Opponent
UTSA	Western Kentucky

Obviously, this is not a parlay. It is one of four games where we are picking an underdog to win straight up. Western Kentucky is due to bounce after getting up and playing a close game at Michigan State, while UTSA has quietly started 5-0 with a Power 5 win.

Odds:	+160
Must Win	Opponent
Texas	Oklahoma

It hasn’t been often in the last 15 years that we went into the second weekend in October believing that Texas would beat Oklahoma. Oklahoma has been narrowly escaping with wins over mediocre competition. After getting pasted at Arkansas, Texas has begun to look like a team ready to compete for the Big 12 Championship Game. We consider this a tossup game, so we go with the better odds and the underdog.

Odds:	+160
Must Win	Opponent
Nebraska	Michigan

This is more of a system play. Nebraska won by more than 38 points in a conference game and now plays a conference home game the next week. In a high percentage of cases like this, the home team continues to play at the same top level it played the previous week. Additionally, Michigan is on the road for the second consecutive week in a key conference game. This has the look of a traditional upset.

Odds:	+161.90
Must Win	Opponent
San Jose St.	Colorado St.
Bowling Green	Akron

The key game here is the San Jose State-Colorado State game. We feel like the wrong team is favored. However, playing SJSU in a single game does not supply us with the odds we look for when playing Money Lines. So, we added the Bowling Green game to it to make a parlay that has fat payout odds. The betting public may not see how much the Falcons have improved this year, while Akron remains one of the five worst teams in the FBS.

Odds:	+188.93
Must Win	Opponent
Iowa	Penn St.
Tennessee	South Carolina
Arizona St.	Stanford

This is the first of three big-odds payouts we are playing this week. In the first game in this parlay, our ratings show Iowa at the present time to be good enough to run the table and make the Playoffs. Penn State looks like a 10-2 team destined to play on New Year’s Day in Florida. Kirk Ferentz may have his best team in Iowa City.

In the second leg of this parlay, Tennessee fits the same criteria that Nebraska faces. They won by 38 points against a conference opponent and play at home this week against another conference opponent. While South Carolina’s defense is considerably better than Missouri’s, their offense is not as sharp, and we believe Josh Heupel’s Vols are sitting on another great performance.

The third part of this parlay is simply a case where we believe Arizona State is clearly superior to Stanford on both sides of the ball and should win by double digits.

Odds:	+195.50
Must Win	Opponent
South Alabama	Texas St.
Kent St.	Buffalo
Wisconsin	Illinois

South Alabama looks to be 10-14 points better than Texas State, and when we saw the Money Line odds on this game, it was the first one that went into our play pool. Kent State has a score to settle with Buffalo. In the weird Covid year of 2020, The Golden Flashes only managed to get four games in the books. Buffalo was the last, and Kent State went into this game 3-0 and averaging 53 points per game. Buffalo was also 3-0. The Bulls hung 70 points on the Flashes. Kent State gets their revenge this week.

Wisconsin is the best 1-3 team in America. It is odd how many times unforced errors have hurt the Badgers in their three losses. The Badgers don’t particularly like their rival to the south, and we expect UW to win this game by a large margin.

Odds:	+241.12
Must Win	Opponent
Central Michigan	Ohio U
BYU	Boise St.
Carolina	Philadelphia

Finally, we come to our biggest odds play of the week. We only found one NFL game we wanted to play based on the Money Line odds, so we had to parlay the Carolina Panthers with a couple of college games.

While 2021 looks like a so-so year for Central Michigan, Ohio is in a state of flux after former coach Frank Solich retired during the Summer. The Bobcats are almost sleep-walking through games this year, which can be attributed to growing pains.

Boise State is a mere shell of its former self under Bryan Harsin. New coach Andy Avalos inherited 16 returning starters, but the Broncos never played up to their potential last year and appear to be repeating it this year. Maybe, they were just a bit overrated?

BYU has shown the world that they were more than just Zach Wilson last year. The Cougars’ defense is top notch, while the offense is a bit more deliberate this year, but it helps the defense perform even better. Other than the fact that the Cougars may be looking ahead a tad to next week’s game at Baylor, everything here looks like a BYU win.

Carolina should be a heavier favorite over Philadelphia. The loss to Dallas has been factored a bit too heavily. We like the Panthers solely because their Money Line odds are so favorable this week.

PiRate Ratings NFL For September 30-October 4, 2021

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Cincinnati	Jacksonville	9.7	9.0	10.0
Atlanta	Washington	4.0	3.7	6.0
Chicago	Detroit	4.7	5.0	4.0
N.Y. Jets	Tennessee	-5.4	-4.9	-4.6
Minnesota	Cleveland	1.0	1.3	1.5
Miami	Indianapolis	2.6	4.2	4.8
Dallas	Carolina	5.3	6.3	3.2
New Orleans	N.Y. Giants	16.8	14.6	18.2
Philadelphia	Kansas City	-6.6	-6.8	-5.1
Buffalo	Houston	16.4	17.3	16.1
LA Rams	Arizona	7.4	7.1	6.8
San Francisco	Seattle	1.2	1.2	1.4
Denver	Baltimore	0.6	1.4	0.8
Green Bay	Pittsburgh	4.9	5.4	5.3
New England	Tampa Bay	-4.0	-4.7	-4.1
LA Chargers	Las Vegas	6.7	6.9	6.7

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

Home	Visitor	Total
Cincinnati	Jacksonville	46.5
Atlanta	Washington	48
Chicago	Detroit	45.5
N.Y. Jets	Tennessee	48.5
Minnesota	Cleveland	49.5
Miami	Indianapolis	44.5
Dallas	Carolina	49
New Orleans	N.Y. Giants	41.5
Philadelphia	Kansas City	50.5
Buffalo	Houston	51.5
LA Rams	Arizona	56
San Francisco	Seattle	52
Denver	Baltimore	42.5
Green Bay	Pittsburgh	44
New England	Tampa Bay	46.5
LA Chargers	Las Vegas	50.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

September 28, 2021
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Buffalo	106.9	106.7	107.2	106.9	25	2-1
Miami	99.6	100.2	100.8	100.2	20	1-2
New England	99.5	98.6	98.8	99.0	18.5	1-2
N. Y. Jets	90.9	91.5	91.6	91.4	20.5	0-3
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	104.3	103.6	104.2	104.0	25	2-1
Cleveland	103.3	103.5	102.4	103.1	25.5	2-1
Pittsburgh	101.3	100.6	101.0	101.0	17	1-2
Cincinnati	97.4	98.2	97.3	97.6	24	2-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Tennessee	99.3	99.4	99.3	99.3	28	2-1
Indianapolis	100.0	99.0	99.0	99.3	24.5	0-3
Houston	93.5	92.3	94.0	93.3	26.5	1-2
Jacksonville	90.7	92.2	90.3	91.1	22.5	0-3
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	104.7	104.6	104.3	104.5	31	1-2
Denver	101.9	102.0	102.0	102.0	17.5	3-0
LA Chargers	101.7	102.0	102.0	101.9	23.5	2-1
Las Vegas	97.9	98.2	98.3	98.1	27	3-0
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	101.2	102.3	100.2	101.2	28	2-1
Philadelphia	95.6	95.4	96.6	95.9	19.5	1-2
N.Y. Giants	95.3	95.3	94.5	95.0	19.5	0-3
Washington	94.4	94.8	93.7	94.3	20	1-2
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Green Bay	103.3	102.9	103.3	103.2	27	2-1
Minnesota	101.3	101.8	100.9	101.3	24	1-2
Chicago	95.9	96.1	95.4	95.8	17.5	1-2
Detroit	93.2	93.1	93.4	93.2	28	0-3
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	109.0	106.9	109.7	108.5	22	2-1
Tampa Bay	106.5	106.3	105.9	106.2	28	2-1
Carolina	98.4	98.5	99.5	98.8	21	3-0
Atlanta	96.0	95.9	97.2	96.4	28	1-2
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	107.6	108.2	107.7	107.8	28	3-0
Seattle	103.9	103.8	103.6	103.8	27.5	1-2
Arizona	103.2	104.1	103.9	103.7	28	3-0
San Francisco	102.1	102.0	102.0	102.0	24.5	2-1

PiRate Ratings NFL For September 23-27, 2021

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Houston	Carolina	1.4	0.1	1.2
Jacksonville	Arizona	-9.0	-8.0	-9.8
Tennessee	Indianapolis	-0.6	0.4	-0.1
Detroit	Baltimore	-9.5	-9.1	-9.8
Buffalo	Washington	13.1	12.5	13.7
New England	New Orleans	-3.6	-1.8	-4.9
Kansas City	LA Chargers	9.2	8.9	8.8
N.Y. Giants	Atlanta	3.7	4.0	1.7
Cleveland	Chicago	7.1	6.9	6.3
Pittsburgh	Cincinnati	11.5	10.0	11.7
Las Vegas	Miami	1.5	1.3	1.1
Denver	N.Y. Jets	10.9	9.9	9.8
LA Rams	Tampa Bay	2.3	3.2	2.9
Minnesota	Seattle	-2.3	-1.6	-3.1
San Francisco	Green Bay	2.6	3.2	3.1
Dallas	Philadelphia	5.1	6.0	3.1

This Week’s PiRate Rating Totals

Home	Visitor	Total
Houston	Carolina	49.5
Jacksonville	Arizona	50.5
Tennessee	Indianapolis	53.5
Detroit	Baltimore	55
Buffalo	Washington	42
New England	New Orleans	40.5
Kansas City	LA Chargers	54.5
N.Y. Giants	Atlanta	50.5
Cleveland	Chicago	45
Pittsburgh	Cincinnati	41.5
Las Vegas	Miami	45.5
Denver	N.Y. Jets	39.5
LA Rams	Tampa Bay	56
Minnesota	Seattle	51.5
San Francisco	Green Bay	50.5
Dallas	Philadelphia	44.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Buffalo	105.8	105.6	105.9	105.7	23.5	1-1
New England	100.9	100.3	100.3	100.5	18.5	1-1
Miami	99.2	99.7	100.2	99.7	19.5	1-1
N. Y. Jets	92.5	93.6	93.5	93.2	21.5	0-2
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	104.7	104.1	104.9	104.6	26	1-1
Pittsburgh	103.7	103.0	103.6	103.4	17.5	1-1
Cleveland	102.1	102.2	101.0	101.8	26	1-1
Cincinnati	95.2	96.0	94.9	95.4	24	1-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Indianapolis	101.1	100.2	100.4	100.6	25	0-2
Tennessee	98.0	98.1	97.8	98.0	28.5	1-1
Houston	95.6	94.4	96.3	95.5	27.5	1-1
Jacksonville	90.9	92.6	90.6	91.4	22.5	0-2
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	106.2	106.2	106.0	106.1	31	1-1
Denver	100.5	100.4	100.3	100.4	18	2-0
LA Chargers	100.1	100.3	100.2	100.2	23.5	1-1
Las Vegas	97.7	98.1	98.3	98.0	26	2-0
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	99.6	100.5	98.6	99.6	26.5	1-1
Philadelphia	97.5	97.5	98.5	97.8	18	1-1
N.Y. Giants	96.1	96.2	95.3	95.9	21.5	0-2
Washington	95.7	96.1	95.2	95.7	18.5	1-1
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Green Bay	102.7	102.1	102.4	102.4	26.5	1-1
Minnesota	99.9	100.4	99.2	99.8	24	0-2
Chicago	98.0	98.3	97.7	98.0	19	1-1
Detroit	92.7	92.5	92.6	92.6	29	0-2
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	107.5	105.1	108.1	106.9	22	1-1
Tampa Bay	107.1	106.9	106.6	106.9	28	2-0
Carolina	96.7	96.8	97.6	97.1	22	2-0
Atlanta	95.4	95.2	96.6	95.7	29	0-2
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	106.5	107.1	106.5	106.7	28	2-0
Seattle	105.2	105.1	105.2	105.2	27.5	1-1
Arizona	102.9	103.6	103.5	103.3	28	2-0
San Francisco	102.3	102.4	102.5	102.4	24	2-0

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 2: September 13-17, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Week Number:	2
Date of Games:	September 13-17
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Total
Cincinnati	Baltimore	-0.7	-1.0	-1.0	43.5
Washington	Indianapolis	10.9	12.3	11.5	44.5
Atlanta	Carolina	4.7	4.9	4.5	42
Green Bay	Minnesota	-1.1	0.1	-1.4	42
Buffalo	L.A. Chargers	-5.5	-6.3	-5.7	39
Tennessee	Houston	0.2	0.4	0.1	46
Pittsburgh	Kansas City	4.4	4.2	3.4	46.5
N.Y. Jets	Miami	5.1	5.8	5.2	45
Tampa Bay	Philadelphia	-2.3	-3.4	-1.3	46
New Orleans	Cleveland	12.7	12.8	12.4	46.5
L.A. Rams	Arizona	11.9	13.9	12.9	45
San Francisco	Detroit	3.7	4.4	3.8	49
Jacksonville	New England	0.8	-0.3	1.0	41.5
Denver	Oakland	6.8	6.0	6.1	42.5
Dallas	N.Y. Giants	5.3	5.4	5.0	39.5
Chicago	Seattle	1.2	1.1	1.9	40.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	105.3	106.1	105.3	105.6	20	1-0
N. Y. Jets	99.8	99.8	100.2	99.9	23.5	1-0
Miami	97.8	97.0	98.0	97.6	21.5	1-0
Buffalo	92.2	92.1	92.0	92.1	18	0-1
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Pittsburgh	105.4	105.4	104.7	105.2	22	0-0-1
Baltimore	102.3	103.1	102.6	102.7	23	1-0
Cincinnati	98.6	99.1	98.6	98.8	20.5	1-0
Cleveland	95.0	94.9	95.5	95.1	22	0-0-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Jacksonville	103.1	102.9	103.3	103.1	21.5	1-0
Houston	99.2	99.2	98.9	99.1	24.5	0-1
Tennessee	96.9	97.0	96.5	96.8	21.5	0-1
Indianapolis	93.6	91.4	93.1	92.7	22.5	0-1
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	104.0	104.3	104.3	104.2	24.5	1-0
LA Chargers	100.6	101.4	100.7	100.9	21	0-1
Denver	98.6	98.3	98.0	98.3	21.5	1-0
Oakland	94.8	95.3	94.9	95.0	21	0-1
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Philadelphia	102.7	103.3	102.3	102.8	23	1-0
Washington	101.5	100.6	101.6	101.2	22	1-0
Dallas	99.5	99.5	99.2	99.4	20	0-1
N.Y. Giants	97.2	97.1	97.2	97.2	19.5	0-1
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	104.5	104.5	104.4	104.5	19.5	1-0
Green Bay	100.4	101.6	100.0	100.6	22.5	1-0
Chicago	99.0	98.6	99.6	99.1	18.5	0-1
Detroit	98.1	97.9	98.0	98.0	25.5	0-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	104.7	104.7	104.9	104.8	24.5	0-1
Atlanta	104.2	104.1	104.4	104.2	21	0-1
Carolina	102.1	101.6	102.3	102.0	21	1-0
Tampa Bay	97.4	96.9	97.9	97.4	23	1-0
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	105.7	106.8	106.4	106.3	25.5	1-0
Seattle	100.9	100.5	100.7	100.7	22	0-1
San Francisco	98.8	99.3	98.8	99.0	23.5	0-1
Arizona	96.3	95.5	95.9	95.9	19.5	0-1

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1	New England
2	Kansas City
3	Jacksonville
4	Baltimore
5	Pittsburgh
6	New York Jets
NFC Seeding
1	L.A. Rams
2	Minnesota
3	Philadelphia
4	Carolina
5	Green Bay
6	Washington

Wildcard Round

N.Y. Jets over Jacksonville

Baltimore over Pittsburgh

Philadelphia over Washington

Green Bay over Carolina

Divisional Round

New England over N.Y. Jets

Baltimore over Kansas City

L.A. Rams over Green Bay

Minnesota over Philadelphia

Conference Championship

New England over Baltimore

L.A. Rams over Minnesota

Super Bowl 53

L.A. Rams over New England

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Wildcard Playoff Round: January 6-7, 2018

All times given are Eastern Standard Time

Saturday, January 6, 2018

4:20 PM on ESPN

Tennessee Titans (9-7-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (10-6-0)

PiRate: Kansas City by 8.1

Mean: Kansas City by 8.0

Bias: Kansas City by 8.7

Total: 45

Estimated Realistic Score: Kansas City 27  Tennessee 17

 

8:15 PM on NBC

Atlanta Falcons (10-6-0) at Los Angeles Rams (11-5-0)

PiRate: Los Angeles by 5.4

Mean: Los Angeles by 5.0

Bias: Los Angeles by 5.7

Total: 48

Estimated Realistic Score: Los Angeles 27  Atlanta 21

 

Sunday, January 7, 2018

1:05 PM on CBS

Buffalo Bills (9-7-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6-0)

PiRate: Jacksonville by 9.4

Mean: Jacksonville by 8.9

Bias: Jacksonville by 9.5

Total: 42

Estimated Realistic Score: Jacksonville 26  Buffalo 16

 

4:40 PM on Fox

Carolina Panthers (11-5-0) at New Orleans Saints (11-5-0)

PiRate: New Orleans by 5.8

Mean: New Orleans by 5.9

Bias: New Orleans by 6.0

Total: 53

Estimated Realistic Score: New Orleans 28  Carolina 24

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 15: December 14-18, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Total
Indianapolis	Denver	0.5	0.8	0.3	41
Detroit	Chicago	6.2	6.5	5.7	45
Kansas City	LA Chargers	-1.7	-0.8	-2.0	46
N. Y. Giants	Philadelphia	-12.6	-10.6	-14.6	43
Carolina	Green Bay	7.1	5.8	8.3	48
Minnesota	Cincinnati	12.9	11.7	14.0	35
Buffalo	Miami	2.4	2.8	2.7	41
Jacksonville	Houston	11.1	10.8	11.8	44
New Orleans	N. Y. Jets	16.2	16.0	16.6	47
Washington	Arizona	5.4	5.5	5.3	47
Cleveland	Baltimore	-12.0	-11.7	-12.2	39
Seattle	LA Rams	2.4	3.0	1.4	46
Pittsburgh	New England	1.1	1.0	1.1	45
San Francisco	Tennessee	0.2	0.0	0.7	45
Oakland	Dallas	-1.9	-0.9	-2.7	47
Tampa Bay	Atlanta	-4.5	-4.2	-4.4	48

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	107.8	107.9	107.9	107.8	22	10-3
Miami	96.5	96.5	96.1	96.4	21	6-7
Buffalo	95.9	96.3	95.9	96.0	20	7-6
N. Y. Jets	94.1	93.8	94.2	94.1	18	5-8
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Pittsburgh	105.8	105.9	106.0	105.9	23	11-2
Baltimore	105.7	106.0	105.8	105.8	22	7-6
Cincinnati	95.6	96.4	95.2	95.8	17	5-8
Cleveland	91.2	91.8	91.1	91.3	17	0-13
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Jacksonville	102.7	102.6	102.8	102.7	22	9-4
Tennessee	97.7	97.8	97.3	97.6	22	8-5
Houston	94.6	94.7	94.1	94.5	22	4-9
Indianapolis	93.0	93.3	92.5	92.9	22	3-10
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Chargers	105.8	105.1	106.2	105.7	23	7-6
Kansas City	101.0	101.4	101.2	101.2	23	7-6
Oakland	97.5	98.1	96.7	97.4	23	6-7
Denver	95.0	94.9	94.8	94.9	19	4-9
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Philadelphia	107.4	106.0	108.8	107.4	25	11-2
Dallas	102.4	101.9	102.4	102.3	24	7-6
Washington	97.5	97.7	97.3	97.5	25	5-8
N.Y. Giants	92.8	93.4	92.2	92.8	18	2-11
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	105.5	105.1	106.2	105.6	18	10-3
Detroit	100.3	100.6	100.0	100.3	27	7-6
Green Bay	99.4	99.9	98.7	99.3	21	7-6
Chicago	96.6	96.7	96.8	96.7	18	4-9
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	107.4	106.8	107.9	107.4	29	9-4
Atlanta	104.1	103.9	104.3	104.1	26	8-5
Carolina	103.5	102.7	104.0	103.4	27	9-4
Tampa Bay	97.2	97.2	97.4	97.3	22	4-9
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	104.9	104.4	105.5	104.9	25	9-4
Seattle	104.4	104.4	103.9	104.2	21	8-5
Arizona	95.7	95.6	95.5	95.6	22	6-7
San Francisco	94.4	94.3	94.5	94.4	23	3-10

NFL Playoff Projections

Beginning this week, we look forward predicting the outcomes of every game and then use the NFL tiebreaker system to forecast seeds.  Prior to week 15, we use only the PiRate Ratings themselves to estimate won-loss record.

This week, we have Seattle winning a tiebreaker over the Rams for the NFC West, with the Rams getting a wildcard, and we have the Saints winning a tiebreaker over the Panthers in the NFC South, with the Panthers getting the other wildcard.

In the AFC, we still show New England getting the top seed by virtue of a road win against the Steelers.  We have the Chargers edging the Chiefs in the AFC West, but we show KC getting the last playoff spot due to a possible 4-game collapse by Tennessee.

This is rather sketchy and only one possible outcome for the season.  Obviously, by this time next week, the probabilities will be drastically reduced with many key games.

AFC Seeding
1	New England
2	Pittsburgh
3	Jacksonville
4	LA Chargers
5	Baltimore
6	Kansas City
NFC Seeding
1	Philadelphia
2	Minnesota
3	New Orleans
4	Seattle
5	LA Rams
6	Carolina

Wildcard Round

Jacksonville over Kansas City

LA Chargers over Baltimore

New Orleans over Carolina

Seattle over LA Rams

Divisional Round

New England over LA Chargers

Jacksonville over Pittsburgh

Seattle over Philadelphia

Minnesota over New Orleans

Conference Championship

New England over Jacksonville

Minnesota over Seattle

Super Bowl 52

New England over Minnesota

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 14: December 7-11, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Total
Atlanta	New Orleans	-1.0	-0.5	-1.4	57
Buffalo	Indianapolis	6.3	6.5	6.7	42
Carolina	Minnesota	0.1	0.0	-0.2	43
Cincinnati	Chicago	7.5	7.9	7.3	35
Cleveland	Green Bay	-4.4	-4.3	-4.0	38
Houston	San Francisco	6.9	7.2	6.7	45
Kansas City	Oakland	5.6	5.5	6.3	46
Tampa Bay	Detroit	0.4	-0.3	0.8	49
N. Y. Giants	Dallas	-3.5	-2.8	-3.7	42
Arizona	Tennessee	-0.1	0.2	0.0	46
Denver	N. Y. Jets	0.0	0.4	-0.6	40
LA Chargers	Washington	9.7	9.2	10.2	50
Jacksonville	Seattle	0.9	1.0	1.3	41
LA Rams	Philadelphia	-1.1	-0.4	-1.7	47
Pittsburgh	Baltimore	2.4	2.1	2.4	43
Miami	New England	-11.9	-11.6	-12.7	43

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	109.6	109.5	109.9	109.6	22	10-2
Buffalo	96.1	96.5	96.1	96.2	20	6-6
N. Y. Jets	96.2	95.8	96.4	96.2	20	5-7
Miami	94.7	94.9	94.1	94.6	21	5-7
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	105.7	106.0	105.8	105.8	21	7-5
Pittsburgh	105.5	105.6	105.7	105.6	22	10-2
Cincinnati	98.8	99.4	98.6	99.0	17	5-7
Cleveland	91.0	91.7	90.9	91.2	17	0-12
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Jacksonville	102.1	102.1	102.1	102.1	21	8-4
Tennessee	98.1	98.0	97.8	98.0	23	8-4
Houston	96.6	96.7	96.3	96.5	22	4-8
Indianapolis	92.8	93.1	92.3	92.7	22	3-9
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Chargers	104.8	104.2	105.1	104.7	23	6-6
Kansas City	100.5	101.0	100.6	100.7	23	6-6
Oakland	98.0	98.5	97.3	97.9	23	6-6
Denver	93.2	93.2	92.9	93.1	20	3-9
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Philadelphia	109.2	107.9	110.5	109.2	24	10-2
Dallas	100.6	100.3	100.4	100.5	24	6-6
Washington	98.0	98.1	97.9	98.0	27	5-7
N.Y. Giants	94.6	95.0	94.2	94.6	18	2-10
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	105.8	105.3	106.6	105.9	17	10-2
Detroit	100.2	100.7	99.9	100.3	27	6-6
Green Bay	98.0	98.4	97.3	97.9	21	6-6
Chicago	93.8	94.1	93.8	93.9	18	3-9
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	107.7	107.0	108.2	107.6	30	9-3
Atlanta	103.6	103.5	103.8	103.6	27	7-5
Carolina	103.0	102.3	103.4	102.9	26	8-4
Tampa Bay	97.6	97.4	97.8	97.6	22	4-8
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	105.1	104.5	105.8	105.1	23	9-3
Seattle	104.7	104.6	104.3	104.5	20	8-4
Arizona	95.1	95.2	94.8	95.0	23	5-7
San Francisco	92.7	92.6	92.6	92.6	23	2-10

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1	New England
2	Pittsburgh
3	Jacksonville
4	LA Chargers
5	Tennessee
6	Baltimore
NFC Seeding
1	Minnesota
2	Philadelphia
3	Los Angeles
4	New Orleans
5	Seattle
6	Carolina

Wildcard Round

Baltimore over Jacksonville

LA Chargers over Tennessee

LA Rams over Carolina

New Orleans over Seattle

Divisional Round

New England over Baltimore

LA Chargers over Pittsburgh

Minnesota over New Orleans

Philadelphia over LA Rams

Conference Championship

New England over LA Chargers

Minnesota over Philadelphia

Super Bowl 52

New England over Minnesota

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 13: November 30-December 4, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Total
Dallas	Washington	2.8	3.0	2.4	51
Baltimore	Detroit	5.3	5.4	5.3	45
Chicago	San Francisco	6.2	6.4	6.5	43
Atlanta	Minnesota	2.5	2.7	2.1	47
Buffalo	New England	-8.9	-8.5	-9.0	45
Miami	Denver	-0.4	-0.2	-0.6	41
Tennessee	Houston	3.5	3.5	3.3	45
Jacksonville	Indianapolis	10.5	10.4	10.8	43
Green Bay	Tampa Bay	3.6	4.2	3.0	43
N. Y. Jets	Kansas City	-3.0	-3.9	-2.8	41
New Orleans	Carolina	7.0	7.2	6.8	56
LA Chargers	Cleveland	17.3	16.1	17.7	42
Arizona	LA Rams	-5.7	-4.9	-6.6	46
Oakland	N. Y. Giants	6.1	6.5	5.7	41
Seattle	Philadelphia	-5.1	-3.3	-6.8	46
Cincinnati	Pittsburgh	-4.8	-4.3	-5.1	39

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	108.7	108.7	108.9	108.7	23	9-2
Buffalo	96.8	97.1	96.9	96.9	22	6-5
N. Y. Jets	95.5	95.1	95.7	95.5	20	4-7
Miami	92.4	92.6	91.8	92.3	21	4-7
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Pittsburgh	105.8	105.9	106.0	105.9	22	9-2
Baltimore	104.1	104.6	104.0	104.2	19	6-5
Cincinnati	98.5	99.1	98.3	98.7	17	5-6
Cleveland	90.6	91.3	90.5	90.8	19	0-11
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Jacksonville	101.3	101.4	101.2	101.3	21	7-4
Tennessee	97.6	97.6	97.2	97.5	23	7-4
Houston	97.1	97.1	96.9	97.0	22	4-7
Indianapolis	93.8	94.0	93.4	93.7	22	3-8
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Chargers	104.9	104.3	105.2	104.8	23	5-6
Kansas City	101.5	102.0	101.6	101.7	21	6-5
Oakland	97.9	98.5	97.1	97.8	23	5-6
Denver	95.8	95.8	95.5	95.7	20	3-8
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Philadelphia	111.0	109.4	112.3	110.9	25	10-1
Washington	99.5	99.4	99.6	99.5	27	5-6
Dallas	99.4	99.3	99.0	99.3	24	5-6
N.Y. Giants	94.7	95.0	94.4	94.7	18	2-9
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	104.8	104.4	105.5	104.9	18	9-2
Detroit	101.8	102.1	101.7	101.9	26	6-5
Green Bay	98.1	98.5	97.5	98.0	21	5-6
Chicago	94.6	94.8	94.7	94.7	19	3-8
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	107.2	106.6	107.6	107.1	30	8-3
Atlanta	104.3	104.1	104.6	104.3	29	7-4
Carolina	103.2	102.4	103.7	103.1	26	8-3
Tampa Bay	97.5	97.3	97.6	97.5	22	4-7
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	104.4	103.8	105.1	104.4	23	8-3
Seattle	102.9	103.1	102.5	102.8	21	7-4
Arizona	95.8	95.9	95.5	95.7	23	5-6
San Francisco	91.9	91.9	91.7	91.8	24	1-10

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding		AFC
1	New England	1
2	Pittsburgh	2
3	Jacksonville	3
4	LA Chargers	4
5	Baltimore	5
6	Tennessee	6
NFC Seeding		NFC
1	Philadelphia	1
2	Minnesota	2
3	LA Rams	3
4	New Orleans	4
5	Carolina	5
6	Seattle	6

Wildcard Round

Jacksonville over Tennessee

LA Chargers over Baltimore

LA Rams over Seattle

Carolina over New Orleans

Divisional Round

New England over LA Chargers

Pittsburgh over Jacksonville

Philadelphia over Carolina

LA Rams over Minnesota

Conference Championship

Pittsburgh over New England

Philadelphia over LA Rams

Super Bowl 52

Philadelphia over Pittsburgh

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 9: November 2-6, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Total
N.Y. Jets	Buffalo	-5.9	-6.5	-6.1	41
Carolina	Atlanta	1.2	0.6	1.8	52
New Orleans	Tampa Bay	8.9	8.5	9.6	54
Philadelphia	Denver	8.3	7.2	9.5	43
Jacksonville	Cincinnati	4.4	4.1	4.4	39
Tennessee	Baltimore	-1.1	-1.7	-1.5	42
Houston	Indianapolis	13.1	12.9	13.4	50
N.Y. Giants	LA Rams	4.0	4.5	3.2	37
Seattle	Washington	8.6	8.8	8.3	48
San Francisco	Arizona	-1.1	-1.4	-1.1	48
Dallas	Kansas City	3.2	2.3	2.9	49
Miami	Oakland	-1.4	-2.0	-1.2	43
Green Bay	Detroit	1.8	1.7	1.6	46

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Buffalo	101.7	101.8	102.1	101.9	22
Miami	94.5	94.4	94.1	94.3	20
New England	105.1	105.5	104.9	105.1	22
N. Y. Jets	93.7	93.3	93.9	93.7	19
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Baltimore	102.6	103.1	102.5	102.7	19
Cincinnati	99.1	99.7	99.0	99.3	17
Cleveland	90.8	91.5	90.7	91.0	18
Pittsburgh	105.5	105.7	105.7	105.7	19
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Houston	101.6	101.6	101.4	101.5	27
Indianapolis	91.5	91.8	90.9	91.4	23
Jacksonville	100.6	100.8	100.4	100.6	22
Tennessee	98.4	98.4	98.0	98.3	23
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Denver	100.1	99.7	100.1	100.0	19
Kansas City	104.9	105.3	105.3	105.2	23
LA Chargers	101.7	101.4	101.7	101.6	22
Oakland	98.9	99.4	98.3	98.9	23
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Dallas	105.2	104.5	105.2	105.0	26
N.Y. Giants	99.4	99.5	99.1	99.4	15
Philadelphia	105.4	104.0	106.6	105.3	24
Washington	98.6	98.6	98.7	98.6	27
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Chicago	95.8	95.8	96.0	95.9	19
Detroit	101.4	101.8	101.2	101.5	24
Green Bay	100.7	101.0	100.3	100.7	22
Minnesota	100.8	100.8	101.1	100.9	18
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Atlanta	102.3	102.4	102.3	102.3	28
Carolina	101.1	100.5	101.5	101.0	24
New Orleans	104.1	103.4	104.7	104.1	30
Tampa Bay	98.2	97.9	98.1	98.1	24
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Arizona	94.9	95.0	94.6	94.8	23
LA Rams	98.9	98.5	99.4	98.9	22
San Francisco	91.2	91.2	91.0	91.1	25
Seattle	104.3	104.4	104.0	104.2	21

Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1	Kansas City
2	New England
3	Pittsburgh
4	Jacksonville
5	Buffalo
6	Baltimore
NFC Seeding
1	Philadelphia
2	New Orleans
3	Seattle
4	Minnesota
5	LA Rams
6	Carolina

Wildcard Round

Pittsburgh over Baltimore

Jacksonville over Buffalo

Carolina over Seattle

LA Rams over Minnesota

Divisional Round

Kansas City over Jacksonville

New England over Pittsburgh

Philadelphia over Carolina

LA Rams over New Orleans

Conference Championship

Kansas City over New England

Philadelphia over LA Rams

Super Bowl 52

Philadelphia over Kansas City

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for September 14-18, 2017

Yuck!  You could say that about the weather in recent weeks.  You could say that about there not being enough “United” in the United States in recent months.  You could say that about being a Dodgers’ fan during the last fortnight or being a fan of a team that has a 4-game set with the Cleveland Indians.  You could say that about prime-time TV for the last 40+ years.  But, most of all, you can sum up our money line parlay selections through two weeks of the football season with that one word.

We usually start each season off a bit weak and then begin to succeed around the first week of October, culminating in a big couple of weeks in the second half that brings us a positive return on investment for the season.  We have to admit that so far this year, there seems to be just enough added parity in college football along with the usual uncertainty at the start of the NFL season to make this downright difficult to find parlays that return the type of odds we look for.  Sure, we could take Alabama at minus one zillion and win a dollar, and we could even put together a parlay of 10 favorites like Penn State over Georgia State and maybe get a parlay at -500, where for every 500 we put up we can win another 100.  But, that isn’t our style.  We are on the lookout only for parlays that give us +120 or higher odds.

We selected 5 parlays last week.  Each had excellent payout odds, and we were still alive in some of the really good ones with just one game left.  We selected Oklahoma to win at Ohio State and could have returned a nice chunk of cash playing that game as a singleton.  No, we had to add Stanford to that game to get +1010 odds, and when Stanford began the game looking like they could possibly win, we were pumped with the possibility that we could get far ahead on the plus side for the season.  Alas, USC started to look like the prognosticators believed they would look, and the Cardinal went back to Palo Alto with a huge loss on their slate.

So, for the week, we invested $500 of imaginary bankroll and received back $278 for a loss of $222 or -44% Return on Investment.  For the season, the numbers worsen to $600 invested and $278 returned for a -55.6% ROI.

As bad as the above sounds, it will sound even worse when we tell you that we didn’t really like 90% of the possible money lines this week.  We couldn’t find much value in this week’s college schedule, and the NFL still looks mysterious.  At this point of the season, and with two teams not even playing a game in week one, the NFL wars leave us trapped in a giant minefield.  Is there a new Dallas Cowboys team out there destined to go from last place in 2016 to the best record in the league?  What do we make of the LA Rams looking like the New England Patriots in week one, or the Patriots’ defense looking more like the 49ers defense?  What about the anemic offenses in Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Houston, and New York (pick your poison with the Giants or Jets)?  What about the AFC West?  Could it be that four of the top 10 teams or at least three of the top five teams in the AFC come from that division?  The Chiefs and Raiders dominated in week one like it was 1966 through 1969 in the old AFL.

What we are trying to say is that we are only risking $200 of imaginary bankroll this week.  We are selecting one college and one NFL parlay, and we admit up front, we do not particularly like either selection, because they both required too many games to get the odds we like.  If we win one of the two, it will be a profitable week, but we are telling you before you see the two picks that we have little faith in either one this week.  As we said before, if you want a guaranteed winner to about 96% possibility, then you can come up with a parlay of about 10 sure things and still have to play them at ridiculous odds so that one upset would empty your account.

For instance, you could make a parlay of Penn State over Georgia State, Virginia Tech over East Carolina, Oklahoma over Tulane, Ohio State over Army, Alabama over Colorado State, Utah over San Jose State, Washington over Fresno State, and Michigan over Air Force.  All eight teams are prohibitive favorites, and it is an almost certain possibility that all eight favorites will win, making this almost a sure thing.  The problem is that for every $100 you put into a parlay like this, you can win a whopping $18.37 profit on your investment.  It is actually a sucker bet, because out of those eight sure things, at this point in the season, one of those games is not the sure thing it looks to be, and we don’t really know which one it is, but rest assured one of these sure thing games will turn out not to be that way.

With that in mind, here are our two official selections for the week.

#1 @ +179
Must Win	Must Lose
Temple	U Mass
South Carolina	Kentucky
Duke	Baylor
Wake Forest	Utah St.
Oregon	Wyoming

Having to go five games deep to get a decent potential ROI, we would expect to get better favorites than this quintet.  We went with Temple mainly because this is a selection against U Mass.  South Carolina and Kentucky look like it should be close to a tossup, but in Columbia, we believe the Gamecocks are a touchdown better, and they are coming off a semi-impressive win over Missouri, while the Wildcats have been close to clawless through two lackluster wins.  We are taking Duke over Baylor for the same reason we took Temple; Baylor has looked anemic in two games under Matt Rhule, and the transition to his style of play could be really tough.  Wake Forest looks to have something going this year under Dave Clawson,  The Demon Deacons took Boston College to the woodshed last week, and at home against a so-so Utah State team, they “appear” to be ready to start the season at 3-0.  Oregon looks like one of those sure things against Wyoming, but you never know what might happen in Laramie.  That is a subtle home field advantage for the Cowboys, and an improving Duck team may be walking into an ambush.

 

#2 @ +276
Must Win	Must Lose
Baltimore	Cleveland
Carolina	Buffalo
New England	New Orleans
Kansas City	Philadelphia
Oakland	NY Jets

The Ravens looked more like the Baltimore teams of 4 to 5 years ago last week when they punished Andy Dalton and Cincinnati.  The Bengals score after 60 minutes was the same as their score before the game kicked off.  The Ravens now get Cleveland for their home-opener, but the Browns looked like they were a force to be reckoned with against Pittsburgh in week one.  It could be that “Money Ball” is about to start paying off near Lake Erie.  But, we believe the Ravens will be up to the task this Sunday.  Is Carolina going to look more like the 2015 team than the 2016 team?  Did Buffalo really look that bad against the 32nd best team in the NFL and really have to worry about beating the Jets?  If so, then the Panthers should win by double digits this week.  New England playing New Orleans should never be allowed to happen again.  No, we don’t mean the two teams should never be scheduled, but how do you give one team and extra three days off while making the other team have to play on the road on Monday Night?  4 extra days to prepare for a game, coming off the debacle in Foxboro on opening night against the Chiefs?  We’ll take the road team in this one.  In taking Kansas City and Oakland at home against the Eagles and Jets, we are going under the assumption that the two bitter rivals are possibly the two best teams in the NFL.

So, there you have it for this week.  Remember that the PiRates never wager real money on our selections.  It is just a mathematical exercise for fun.  Please do not wager real money on our just-for-fun selections.  That even goes for the five or six of you who are real professionals who claim that you have a unique way of playing our ratings that makes your weekends very profitable.  It reminds us of the football handicapper with a system that consistently won 26% of his single sides wagers and never realized that if he just took the other side every week, he’d be the most successful guy in Vegas.