The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 28, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 10

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Tuesday October 30
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Buffalo Miami (O) 8.1 8.5 7.0
Bowling Green Kent St. 2.5 1.6 2.6

 

Wednesday October 31
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Toledo Ball St. 20.1 19.3 20.4

 

Thursday November 1
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Western Michigan Ohio U -2.0 -1.6 -1.9
Akron Northern Illinois -2.7 -2.4 -2.7
Central Florida Temple 15.0 15.2 14.6

 

Friday November 2
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Virginia Pittsburgh 7.3 8.3 7.2
Middle Tennessee Western Kentucky 16.7 15.3 17.2
Arizona Colorado 4.9 2.6 4.4

 

Saturday November 3
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
SMU Houston -9.4 -10.6 -10.8
Purdue Iowa -0.3 0.1 -0.2
Georgia St. Texas St. 8.9 8.0 9.2
Wake Forest Syracuse -4.1 -4.7 -5.4
Kentucky Georgia -10.3 -8.5 -11.3
Cincinnati Navy 9.7 9.2 10.5
Ohio St. Nebraska 25.6 24.9 27.1
North Carolina Georgia Tech -11.4 -11.3 -11.6
Florida Missouri 1.6 1.3 1.3
Miami (Fla.) Duke 6.7 7.0 6.7
North Carolina St. Florida St. 7.7 8.0 7.8
East Carolina Memphis -15.1 -16.9 -16.5
Virginia Tech Boston College -2.6 -1.3 -2.8
Maryland Michigan St. -8.6 -7.8 -8.9
Texas Tech Oklahoma -9.2 -9.3 -10.7
Texas West Virginia 0.9 0.3 0.9
Wisconsin Rutgers 30.9 29.5 32.0
Northwestern Notre Dame -11.5 -10.6 -10.6
Illinois Minnesota -8.6 -8.2 -9.4
Eastern Michigan Central Michigan 13.0 12.1 13.2
Army Air Force 12.3 12.5 12.4
South Florida Tulane 4.7 6.1 4.3
Coastal Carolina Appalachian St. -16.8 -16.1 -17.6
Boise St. BYU 13.1 12.1 12.6
New Mexico San Diego St. -11.5 -10.3 -12.2
Wyoming San Jose St. 19.3 18.4 20.6
Washington St. California 8.6 9.9 8.6
Southern Miss. Marshall -8.5 -8.0 -9.2
Louisiana-Monroe Georgia Southern -7.1 -8.8 -7.6
Arizona St. Utah -6.8 -6.6 -7.8
Oregon UCLA 13.4 13.6 16.3
Washington Stanford 9.8 10.2 10.6
Kansas Iowa St. -12.2 -12.1 -13.9
Auburn Texas A&M 4.6 4.8 6.2
Tennessee Charlotte 24.9 22.8 23.9
Mississippi St. Louisiana Tech 27.6 23.1 27.2
Baylor Oklahoma St. -6.6 -6.7 -6.9
Massachusetts Liberty 1.2 3.8 1.5
TCU Kansas St. 8.4 8.5 7.8
Tulsa Connecticut 17.8 16.6 19.0
Clemson Louisville 47.2 44.7 48.9
Michigan Penn St. 9.1 10.6 9.8
Ole Miss South Carolina -5.0 -4.4 -4.1
Rice UTEP -3.6 -4.0 -4.8
Troy Louisiana 11.7 10.8 11.9
Arkansas St. South Alabama 13.3 12.9 14.3
UAB UTSA 20.7 19.2 20.8
Florida Int’l. Florida Atlantic -1.3 1.7 -0.8
LSU Alabama -17.5 -15.8 -17.5
UNLV Fresno St. -28.7 -26.7 -28.9
Hawaii Utah St. -24.1 -23.7 -26.5
Oregon St. USC -20.4 -21.1 -21.3

FBS vs. FCS Game

FBS FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
New Mexico St. Alcorn St. 10.8

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 140.5 138.5 141.9 140.3
2 Clemson 137.7 135.1 138.5 137.1
3 Georgia 128.5 125.6 129.5 127.8
4 Michigan 126.9 125.7 127.5 126.7
5 Oklahoma 123.2 122.0 123.7 123.0
6 Notre Dame 124.2 121.5 123.1 122.9
7 Ohio St. 123.5 121.5 123.6 122.9
8 Washington 121.2 119.2 122.0 120.8
9 L S U 120.1 119.7 121.4 120.4
10 Penn St. 120.7 118.1 120.7 119.8
11 Mississippi St. 119.0 116.8 119.8 118.6
12 Utah 118.2 116.6 118.9 117.9
13 Michigan St. 117.3 115.2 116.8 116.5
14 Iowa 117.0 115.1 116.8 116.3
15 Missouri 115.9 114.4 116.9 115.7
16 Auburn 115.5 114.3 117.1 115.6
17 Boston College 115.8 113.4 115.4 114.9
18 Kentucky 115.2 114.2 115.2 114.8
19 West Virginia 115.4 114.4 114.7 114.8
20 Central Florida 114.5 114.7 114.8 114.7
21 Florida 114.5 112.7 115.2 114.1
22 Georgia Tech 114.3 113.3 114.1 113.9
23 Miami 114.6 113.0 113.9 113.9
24 Stanford 114.4 112.0 114.4 113.6
25 Texas A&M 113.9 112.5 113.9 113.4
26 Purdue 113.7 112.2 113.5 113.1
27 Wisconsin 114.1 111.6 113.4 113.0
28 Iowa State 113.4 111.9 113.3 112.9
29 Washington St. 113.1 112.1 112.9 112.7
30 Texas 113.3 111.7 112.6 112.5
31 Fresno St. 112.4 111.7 112.9 112.4
32 S. Carolina 111.6 110.5 111.0 111.0
33 N. Carolina St. 111.1 110.4 110.6 110.7
34 Utah St. 109.4 110.7 110.8 110.3
35 Texas Tech 111.0 109.7 110.0 110.2
36 Duke 111.0 109.0 110.2 110.1
37 Northwestern 110.6 108.9 110.4 110.0
38 Virginia Tech 110.2 109.1 109.6 109.6
39 Syracuse 110.3 109.0 109.6 109.6
40 Oklahoma St. 110.2 108.5 110.1 109.6
41 Boise St. 109.7 109.1 109.6 109.5
42 Oregon 108.7 108.5 109.3 108.8
43 U S C 108.7 107.2 108.1 108.0
44 Arizona St. 108.5 107.1 108.1 107.9
45 Virginia 107.6 108.0 107.1 107.6
46 T C U 108.2 106.9 106.6 107.2
47 California 107.5 105.2 107.3 106.7
48 Florida St. 106.4 105.5 105.8 105.9
49 Army 104.7 105.5 105.1 105.1
50 Maryland 105.7 104.4 105.0 105.0
51 Houston 104.0 104.9 104.7 104.5
52 Ole Miss 103.6 103.1 103.9 103.5
53 Arizona 103.6 101.9 103.7 103.0
54 Pittsburgh 103.3 102.6 102.9 103.0
55 Temple 102.5 102.5 103.2 102.7
56 Vanderbilt 102.6 102.7 102.8 102.7
57 Wake Forest 103.8 101.8 101.7 102.4
58 Colorado 101.6 102.3 102.3 102.1
59 Kansas St. 102.8 101.3 101.7 101.9
60 Memphis 101.1 102.6 101.9 101.9
61 Buffalo 99.3 101.3 100.4 100.3
62 Minnesota 100.8 99.7 100.3 100.3
63 Tennessee 100.1 100.4 99.8 100.1
64 Nebraska 100.9 99.6 99.5 100.0
65 BYU 99.6 100.0 100.0 99.8
66 Baylor 100.6 98.8 100.1 99.8
67 San Diego St. 99.4 99.4 99.9 99.5
68 N. Carolina 99.9 99.0 99.5 99.5
69 N. Texas 98.3 100.6 98.8 99.2
70 Indiana 99.6 98.5 99.4 99.2
71 Cincinnati 98.5 100.1 98.9 99.1
72 Appalachian St. 97.7 99.4 99.2 98.7
73 Toledo 98.0 99.3 97.8 98.4
74 Arkansas 99.4 96.9 98.2 98.2
75 U C L A 98.3 97.9 96.0 97.4
76 Kansas 98.2 96.8 96.5 97.2
77 Ohio U 96.3 97.6 97.2 97.0
78 U A B 95.6 98.2 96.4 96.8
79 Marshall 95.4 98.0 96.5 96.7
80 Northern Illinois 95.7 96.5 95.7 96.0
81 Air Force 95.4 96.0 95.7 95.7
82 South Florida 95.1 96.8 94.7 95.5
83 Miami (O) 94.1 95.8 96.4 95.4
84 Louisiana Tech 94.0 96.3 95.2 95.1
85 Wyoming 94.9 95.0 94.7 94.8
86 Eastern Michigan 94.1 95.5 94.5 94.7
87 Middle Tennessee 93.4 95.0 94.4 94.3
88 Florida Atlantic 93.8 94.7 94.1 94.2
89 Nevada 93.9 94.0 94.1 94.0
90 Tulane 93.4 93.7 93.4 93.5
91 Georgia Southern 92.5 94.4 93.3 93.4
92 Louisville 93.5 93.3 92.6 93.1
93 Navy 91.8 93.8 91.4 92.4
94 SMU 92.7 92.2 91.9 92.3
95 Western Michigan 91.3 92.9 92.3 92.2
96 Troy 91.2 92.5 92.7 92.1
97 Florida Int’l. 90.5 94.4 91.2 92.0
98 Akron 89.9 91.1 90.0 90.4
99 Tulsa 90.0 89.3 90.1 89.8
100 Illinois 89.7 89.0 88.4 89.0
101 Arkansas St. 86.6 88.0 87.9 87.5
102 Rutgers 86.2 85.1 84.5 85.3
103 New Mexico 84.9 86.1 84.6 85.2
104 Southern Miss. 83.9 87.0 84.3 85.1
105 Colorado St. 84.1 84.8 83.8 84.2
106 Oregon St. 85.3 83.1 83.8 84.1
107 Central Michigan 83.1 85.4 83.4 84.0
108 Louisiana 82.5 84.7 83.9 83.7
109 East Carolina 83.5 83.2 82.9 83.2
110 UL-Monroe 82.3 82.6 82.7 82.6
111 U N L V 81.3 82.5 81.5 81.8
112 Liberty 81.7 80.9 81.9 81.5
113 Hawaii 81.3 83.0 80.2 81.5
114 Ball St. 80.9 83.0 80.5 81.5
115 Massachusetts 80.4 82.2 81.0 81.2
116 Old Dominion 80.2 83.4 79.8 81.2
117 W. Kentucky 79.2 82.2 79.7 80.4
118 Coastal Carolina 78.8 81.3 79.6 79.9
119 Kent St. 79.0 80.2 78.9 79.4
120 Georgia St. 78.4 80.3 78.8 79.2
121 Bowling Green 79.0 79.3 79.0 79.1
122 U T S A 77.5 81.5 78.1 79.1
123 Charlotte 77.7 80.2 78.4 78.8
124 San Jose St. 78.6 79.6 77.1 78.4
125 South Alabama 76.2 78.1 76.6 77.0
126 Connecticut 75.1 75.7 74.1 75.0
127 U T E P 72.8 76.0 72.7 73.8
128 Texas State 72.0 74.8 72.1 73.0
129 N. Mexico St. 72.2 74.0 72.1 72.8
130 Rice 66.7 69.4 65.4 67.2

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 114.5 114.7 114.8 114.7 4-0 7-0
Temple 102.5 102.5 103.2 102.7 4-0 5-3
Cincinnati 98.5 100.1 98.9 99.1 3-1 7-1
South Florida 95.1 96.8 94.7 95.5 3-1 7-1
East Carolina 83.5 83.2 82.9 83.2 0-4 2-5
Connecticut 75.1 75.7 74.1 75.0 0-4 1-7
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Houston 104.0 104.9 104.7 104.5 4-0 7-1
Memphis 101.1 102.6 101.9 101.9 1-3 4-4
Tulane 93.4 93.7 93.4 93.5 2-2 3-5
Navy 91.8 93.8 91.4 92.4 1-3 2-6
SMU 92.7 92.2 91.9 92.3 2-2 3-5
Tulsa 90.0 89.3 90.1 89.8 0-4 1-7
AAC Averages 95.2 95.8 95.2 95.4
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 137.7 135.1 138.5 137.1 5-0 8-0
Boston College 115.8 113.4 115.4 114.9 3-1 6-2
N. Carolina St. 111.1 110.4 110.6 110.7 1-2 5-2
Syracuse 110.3 109.0 109.6 109.6 3-2 6-2
Florida St. 106.4 105.5 105.8 105.9 2-4 4-4
Wake Forest 103.8 101.8 101.7 102.4 1-3 4-4
Louisville 93.5 93.3 92.6 93.1 0-5 2-6
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Georgia Tech 114.3 113.3 114.1 113.9 2-3 4-4
Miami 114.6 113.0 113.9 113.9 2-2 5-3
Duke 111.0 109.0 110.2 110.1 1-3 5-3
Virginia Tech 110.2 109.1 109.6 109.6 3-1 4-3
Virginia 107.6 108.0 107.1 107.6 4-1 6-2
Pittsburgh 103.3 102.6 102.9 103.0 3-1 4-4
N. Carolina 99.9 99.0 99.5 99.5 1-4 1-6
ACC Averages 110.0 108.8 109.4 109.4
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 123.2 122.0 123.7 123.0 4-1 7-1
West Virginia 115.4 114.4 114.7 114.8 4-1 6-1
Iowa State 113.4 111.9 113.3 112.9 3-2 4-3
Texas 113.3 111.7 112.6 112.5 4-1 6-2
Texas Tech 111.0 109.7 110.0 110.2 3-2 5-3
Oklahoma St. 110.2 108.5 110.1 109.6 2-3 5-3
T C U 108.2 106.9 106.6 107.2 1-4 3-5
Kansas St. 102.8 101.3 101.7 101.9 1-4 3-5
Baylor 100.6 98.8 100.1 99.8 2-3 4-4
Kansas 98.2 96.8 96.5 97.2 1-4 3-5
Big 12 Averages 109.6 108.2 108.9 108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Michigan 126.9 125.7 127.5 126.7 5-0 7-1
Ohio St. 123.5 121.5 123.6 122.9 4-1 7-1
Penn St. 120.7 118.1 120.7 119.8 3-2 6-2
Michigan St. 117.3 115.2 116.8 116.5 4-2 5-3
Maryland 105.7 104.4 105.0 105.0 3-2 5-3
Indiana 99.6 98.5 99.4 99.2 1-5 4-5
Rutgers 86.2 85.1 84.5 85.3 0-5 1-7
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Iowa 117.0 115.1 116.8 116.3 3-2 6-2
Purdue 113.7 112.2 113.5 113.1 3-2 4-4
Wisconsin 114.1 111.6 113.4 113.0 3-2 5-3
Northwestern 110.6 108.9 110.4 110.0 5-1 5-3
Minnesota 100.8 99.7 100.3 100.3 1-4 4-4
Nebraska 100.9 99.6 99.5 100.0 1-4 2-6
Illinois 89.7 89.0 88.4 89.0 1-4 3-5
Big Ten Averages 109.1 107.5 108.5 108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Marshall 95.4 98.0 96.5 96.7 3-1 5-2
Middle Tennessee 93.4 95.0 94.4 94.3 4-1 5-3
Florida Atlantic 93.8 94.7 94.1 94.2 1-3 3-5
Florida Int’l. 90.5 94.4 91.2 92.0 4-0 6-2
Old Dominion 80.2 83.4 79.8 81.2 1-5 2-7
W. Kentucky 79.2 82.2 79.7 80.4 0-4 1-7
Charlotte 77.7 80.2 78.4 78.8 3-2 4-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
N. Texas 98.3 100.6 98.8 99.2 3-2 7-2
U A B 95.6 98.2 96.4 96.8 5-0 7-1
Louisiana Tech 94.0 96.3 95.2 95.1 4-1 6-2
Southern Miss. 83.9 87.0 84.3 85.1 2-2 3-4
U T S A 77.5 81.5 78.1 79.1 2-2 3-5
U T E P 72.8 76.0 72.7 73.8 0-4 0-8
Rice 66.7 69.4 65.4 67.2 0-5 1-8
CUSA Averages 85.6 88.4 86.1 86.7
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 124.2 121.5 123.1 122.9 x 8-0
Army 104.7 105.5 105.1 105.1 x 6-2
BYU 99.6 100.0 100.0 99.8 x 4-4
Liberty 81.7 80.9 81.9 81.5 x 4-3
Massachusetts 80.4 82.2 81.0 81.2 x 3-6
N. Mexico St. 72.2 74.0 72.1 72.8 x 2-7
Indep. Averages 93.8 94.0 93.9 93.9
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Buffalo 99.3 101.3 100.4 100.3 4-0 7-1
Ohio U 96.3 97.6 97.2 97.0 3-1 5-3
Miami (O) 94.1 95.8 96.4 95.4 3-1 3-5
Akron 89.9 91.1 90.0 90.4 2-2 4-3
Kent St. 79.0 80.2 78.9 79.4 0-4 1-7
Bowling Green 79.0 79.3 79.0 79.1 0-4 1-7
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 98.0 99.3 97.8 98.4 2-2 4-4
Eastern Michigan 94.1 95.5 94.5 94.7 2-3 4-5
Northern Illinois 95.7 96.5 95.7 96.0 4-0 5-3
Western Michigan 91.3 92.9 92.3 92.2 4-1 6-3
Central Michigan 83.1 85.4 83.4 84.0 0-5 1-8
Ball St. 80.9 83.0 80.5 81.5 2-3 3-6
MAC Averages 90.1 91.5 90.5 90.7
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Utah St. 109.4 110.7 110.8 110.3 4-0 7-1
Boise St. 109.7 109.1 109.6 109.5 4-1 6-2
Air Force 95.4 96.0 95.7 95.7 1-4 3-5
Wyoming 94.9 95.0 94.7 94.8 1-4 3-6
New Mexico 84.9 86.1 84.6 85.2 1-3 3-5
Colorado St. 84.1 84.8 83.8 84.2 2-3 3-6
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 112.4 111.7 112.9 112.4 4-0 7-1
San Diego St. 99.4 99.4 99.9 99.5 3-1 6-2
Nevada 93.9 94.0 94.1 94.0 3-2 5-4
U N L V 81.3 82.5 81.5 81.8 0-4 2-6
Hawaii 81.3 83.0 80.2 81.5 3-2 6-4
San Jose St. 78.6 79.6 77.1 78.4 1-3 1-7
MWC Averages 93.8 94.3 93.7 93.9
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 121.2 119.2 122.0 120.8 4-2 6-3
Stanford 114.4 112.0 114.4 113.6 3-2 5-3
Washington St. 113.1 112.1 112.9 112.7 4-1 7-1
Oregon 108.7 108.5 109.3 108.8 2-3 5-3
California 107.5 105.2 107.3 106.7 2-3 5-3
Oregon St. 85.3 83.1 83.8 84.1 1-4 2-6
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 118.2 116.6 118.9 117.9 4-2 6-2
U S C 108.7 107.2 108.1 108.0 3-3 4-4
Arizona St. 108.5 107.1 108.1 107.9 2-3 4-4
Arizona 103.6 101.9 103.7 103.0 3-3 4-5
Colorado 101.6 102.3 102.3 102.1 2-3 5-3
U C L A 98.3 97.9 96.0 97.4 2-3 2-6
Pac-12 Averages 107.4 106.1 107.2 106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 128.5 125.6 129.5 127.8 5-1 7-1
Missouri 115.9 114.4 116.9 115.7 0-4 4-4
Kentucky 115.2 114.2 115.2 114.8 5-1 7-1
Florida 114.5 112.7 115.2 114.1 4-2 6-2
S. Carolina 111.6 110.5 111.0 111.0 3-3 4-3
Vanderbilt 102.6 102.7 102.8 102.7 1-4 4-5
Tennessee 100.1 100.4 99.8 100.1 1-4 3-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 140.5 138.5 141.9 140.3 5-0 8-0
L S U 120.1 119.7 121.4 120.4 4-1 7-1
Mississippi St. 119.0 116.8 119.8 118.6 2-3 5-3
Auburn 115.5 114.3 117.1 115.6 2-3 5-3
Texas A&M 113.9 112.5 113.9 113.4 3-2 5-3
Ole Miss 103.6 103.1 103.9 103.5 1-3 5-3
Arkansas 99.4 96.9 98.2 98.2 0-5 2-7
SEC Averages 114.3 113.0 114.7 114.0
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 97.7 99.4 99.2 98.7 3-1 5-2
Georgia Southern 92.5 94.4 93.3 93.4 4-0 7-1
Troy 91.2 92.5 92.7 92.1 4-0 6-2
Coastal Carolina 78.8 81.3 79.6 79.9 2-2 5-3
Georgia St. 78.4 80.3 78.8 79.2 1-3 2-6
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 86.6 88.0 87.9 87.5 1-3 4-4
Louisiana 82.5 84.7 83.9 83.7 2-2 4-4
UL-Monroe 82.3 82.6 82.7 82.6 2-2 4-4
South Alabama 76.2 78.1 76.6 77.0 1-3 2-6
Texas State 72.0 74.8 72.1 73.0 0-4 2-6
Sun Belt Averages 83.8 85.6 84.7 84.7

 

Conference Strength Ratings
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 114.3 113.0 114.7 114.0
2 ACC 110.0 108.8 109.4 109.4
3 B12 109.6 108.2 108.9 108.9
4 BTEN 109.1 107.5 108.5 108.4
5 P-12 107.4 106.1 107.2 106.9
6 AAC 95.2 95.8 95.2 95.4
7 MWC 93.8 94.3 93.7 93.9
8 IND 93.8 94.0 93.9 93.9
9 MAC 90.1 91.5 90.5 90.7
10 CUSA 85.6 88.4 86.1 86.7
11 SUN 83.8 85.6 84.7 84.7

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1 Central Florida
2 Fresno St.
3 Houston
4 Utah St.
5 Georgia Southern

PiRate Ratings Predictions for the First College Football Playoff Poll

(To be released Tuesday on ESPN at 7:00 PM EDT)

1 Clemson Tigers
2. Alabama Crimson Tide
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
4. LSU Tigers

 

PiRate Ratings Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA [California] Utah St.
Cure AAC SBC [Eastern Michigan] Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Fresno St. USC
Camellia MAC SBC Buffalo Coastal Carolina
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech Louisiana
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Central Florida Marshall
Frisco AAC At-Large South Florida [Arizona]
Gasparilla AAC CUSA [Duke] Middle Tennessee
Bahamas MAC CUSA Northern Illinois Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Toledo Boise St.
Birmingham AAC SEC Cincinnati [Western Michigan]
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 Memphis [Army]
Dollar General MAC SBC Ohio U Georgia Southern
Hawaii CUSA MWC UAB Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA Maryland North Texas
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Georgia Tech Minnesota
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 [Nevada] Arizona St.
Independence ACC SEC Miami (Fla.) [BYU]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Syracuse Wisconsin
Texas Big 12 SEC Texas Tech Texas A&M
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Virginia Tech Tennessee
Camping World ACC Big 12 North Carolina St. Iowa St.
Arizona MWC SBC San Diego St. Troy
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Texas Utah
Belk ACC SEC Virginia Mississippi St.
Peach At-large At-large West Virginia Georgia
Military AAC ACC Temple Pittsburgh
Sun ACC Pac-12 Boston College USC
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Northwestern Oregon
Liberty Big 12 SEC Oklahoma St. Missouri
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Purdue Washington
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Michigan St. South Carolina
Outback Big Ten SEC Penn St. Auburn
Fiesta At-large At-large Kentucky Houston
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Iowa Florida
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. Washington St.
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma LSU
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton Alabama Michigan
Orange Clemson Notre Dame
Championship Game Alabama Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

This Week’s Must-Watch TV Games

This may be the top overall week of the college football season, because there are about two dozen important games with about half being considered crucial games.

As this week begins the final month of the season, the college football schedule now consumes five days per week.  The Mid-American Conference will now have games on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday nights.  There are other big-time weeknight games this week too.

Thursday

The key game on Thursday night this week is the Central Florida versus Temple game in Orlando.  With Houston now looking like the for sure champion in the West and with a likely 11-1 regular season record, UCF must win out to stay ahead of the Cougars in the race for the Peach or Fiesta Bowl bid.  If the Owls lose at home this week or to USF in the final week, then even a win over 11-1 Houston might not be enough to leapfrog over Fresno State or Utah State, if either team finishes 12-1.

This game will air on ESPN at 7:30 PM Eastern

Friday

We have one crucial game and one bowl eliminator game on Friday night.

Virginia hosts Pittsburgh in a crucial ACC game between the Coastal Division’s only two one-conference loss teams.  The winner will become the favorite to get the right to play Clemson in the ACC Championship Game.  The loser is looking at one of the ACC’s #3 tier games.

This game will air on ESPN2 at 7:30 PM Eastern.

Later on Friday, Arizona hosts Colorado in a game where the two teams are going in opposite directions.  Colorado began the season at 5-0 and has lost three consecutive games, including an embarrassing loss at home to Oregon State.  Arizona began the season looking like a possible double-digit loss team, but the Wildcats have since begun to play quite well with improvement every week.  They are now 4-5 and a win will get them to .500 for the first time this year.  The winner has a bowl bid in their sites, while the loser looks like a for sure 5-7 team.

This game will air on FS1 at 10:30 PM Eastern

 

Saturday

Make plans to stay indoors on Saturday.  If you get some cold Autumn winds, it might be a great day for a fire in the fire place and a nice bowl of stew.  Look at just a host of very interesting games.

All Times Eastern

12:00 PM

Baylor vs. Oklahoma St. on FS1: This is a bowl elimination game.

Ole Miss vs. South Carolina SECn: South Carolina must win to have a real chance for six wins and bowl eligibility.  Ole Miss is ineligible for a bowl but can clinch a non-losing season with a win.

North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech on ACCn: With the upset over Virginia Tech in Blacksburg in a game where the Yellow Jackets ran for 465 yards, the Techsters were like the Phoenix rising from the ashes.  If Tech can beat North Carolina, then Paul Johnson’s team can get to 6-6.  North Carolina can maybe get a new coach in 2019.  There are a couple of hot candidates out of the Sun Belt that may be leading contenders for this sleeping giant if Fedora gets the pink slip/

4:30 PM

One of two incredible SEC games on CBS this weekend takes place in the Bluegrass, where Kentucky hosts Georgia in a game to decide the SEC East Championship.  Kentucky miraculously beat Missouri in Columbia on an untimed play after the final clock hit zero.  Georgia won the World’s Largest Outdoor Cup of Tea Party over Florida in impressive fashion, making LSU’s defense look really good.  Kentucky will enjoy its best home field advantage for this game in years.  It will be like the advantage their basketball team has at Rupp Arena, but will it be enough to compete with this Georgia team?

In West Lafayette, Indiana, Iowa visits Purdue in a what basically will be a semifinal game for the Big Ten West Division title.  Both teams have 3-2 conference marks along with Wisconsin, while Northwestern is in the lead at 5-1.

This game airs on ESPN2.

In the Big 12 on Fox, you can watch West Virginia visit Austin to take on the Texas Longhorns in a game that will go far in deciding which team besides Oklahoma will play in the Big 12 Championship Game.  If Texas wins this game, and then WVU beats Oklahoma in Morgantown in the season finale, the Big 12 Championship Game would decide the Sugar Bowl participant, as there will be no chance for a Playoff berth.  And, if this scenario played out with the Mountaineers, Longhorns, and Sooners tied at 7-2, Oklahoma would finish in third place in this tiebreaker and miss the conference championship game.

3:45 PM

In a game with Playoff implications, Michigan hosts Penn State at the Big House.  The Wolverines are likely to be just off the pace in the first College Football Playoff poll, but a win here plus a win at Ohio State would give the Maize and Blue an excellent shot at one of the Big 4 bids should they handle the West Division champion in the Big Ten Conference Championship Game.  Of course, there is a team down south that thinks they will still handle UM when they visit a certain horseshoe.

5:00 PM

The Pac-12 South Race is a muddied mess with all six teams still alive as the calendar hits November.   If Herm Edwards can fire up his Arizona State squad into a frenzy that leads to an upset of Utah in this game, then every team in the division will have at least three conference losses!  A Sun Devil win could be the beginning of what ends up a three or four team tie.  Catch this game on the Pac-12 Network.

7:15 PM

Notre Dame travels around the arc of Lake Michigan to play Northwestern in Evanston.  It will be cold and could be wet Saturday night.  On paper, it looks like a double-digit win for the undefeated Irish, but on national TV at home, Northwestern could hang around and have a chance at the end.  Notre Dame likely doesn’t get a playoff bid with a loss in this game.  It airs on ESPN.

8:00 PM

This is the biggest game of the season to date.  Alabama heads to Baton Rouge to face LSU in the Tiger’s Den.  Both teams had a week off to prepare for this game, almost like two Super Bowl teams preparing for their game.  On paper, LSU (and no other team for that matter) does not match up well against the Tide.  Alabama might still be favored if they played an all-star team of players from other 13 SEC teams.  This game could be a blowout like all other ‘Bama games, but if the LSU defense can limit the Tide to 28 points, and Joe Burrow can pass for 200 yards like he did against Georgia, then this could still be an interesting game at the start of the fourth quarter.  Watch it on CBS.

There will be another game worth watching at the same time as the LSU-Alabama game, and it could be a big surprise game.  Oklahoma plays Texas Tech in Lubbock in a contest that must be considered a trap game for the Sooners.  Tech has won big in the past over highly-ranked teams coming to Lubbock on Saturday night.  The Red Raiders can score 40 points on almost anybody in the Big 12, so the question is can they hold OU under half a hundred?  This game airs on ABC.

10:45 PM

If you still have working eyeballs by this time, the Washington State-California game is sure to entertain you.  You have to give a lot of credit to “The Pirate”, Mike Leach for taking a program that was at the bottom of the Pac-12 and making it possibly the Rose Bowl team in five years.  With quarterback Gardner Minshew completing 71% of his passes for more than 400 yards per game, he deserves some mention in the Heisman Trophy talks, since he has guided the Cougars to a 7-1 record.  As for Cal, the Bears just totally stopped Jake Browning in their win over Washington, and Cal may now bet the stronger of the two Bay Area Pac-12 teams.  This should be an interesting nightcap, and you can watch it on ESPN.

 

For those few of you that have already inquired as to whether a certain poem will be published in this site, don’t fret.  The NFL preview will have that poem.  It isn’t November until the Autumn winds bluster in from the sea.

 

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November 7, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 10: November 9-13, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Arizona Seattle -4.3 -4.5 -4.1 42
Washington Minnesota 1.7 1.6 1.6 44
Chicago Green Bay -0.7 -1.4 0.0 41
Indianapolis Pittsburgh -9.8 -9.7 -10.3 42
Jacksonville LA Chargers 3.4 3.6 3.4 44
Tampa Bay N. Y. Jets 4.4 4.9 3.8 43
Tennessee Cincinnati 3.8 2.9 3.7 40
Buffalo New Orleans -2.2 -1.1 -2.7 52
Detroit Cleveland 14.3 13.9 14.4 42
LA Rams Houston 6.2 5.7 7.0 48
Atlanta Dallas -0.7 0.1 -0.9 54
San Francisco N. Y. Giants -2.5 -2.6 -2.5 41
Denver New England -4.1 -4.8 -3.9 43
Carolina Miami 9.8 9.2 10.6 43

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 105.3 105.7 105.1 105.3 22 6-2
Buffalo 99.9 100.1 100.1 100.0 22 5-3
N. Y. Jets 95.5 95.0 95.9 95.5 20 4-5
Miami 94.4 94.4 94.0 94.3 20 4-4
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 105.7 105.9 105.9 105.9 19 6-2
Baltimore 102.3 102.9 102.1 102.4 19 4-5
Cincinnati 97.9 98.7 97.6 98.1 17 3-5
Cleveland 91.0 91.7 90.9 91.2 18 0-8
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 101.8 101.8 101.8 101.8 22 5-3
Houston 99.2 99.3 98.9 99.1 24 3-5
Tennessee 98.7 98.6 98.4 98.6 23 5-3
Indianapolis 93.5 93.7 93.0 93.4 23 3-6
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 104.2 104.6 104.5 104.4 23 6-3
LA Chargers 101.9 101.6 101.9 101.8 22 3-5
Oakland 99.0 99.4 98.4 98.9 23 4-5
Denver 98.2 97.8 98.2 98.1 21 3-5
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 107.3 105.9 108.5 107.2 25 8-1
Dallas 105.9 105.2 106.0 105.7 26 5-3
Washington 99.7 99.6 99.9 99.7 26 4-4
N.Y. Giants 95.9 96.0 95.6 95.9 17 1-7
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Detroit 102.8 103.0 102.8 102.9 24 4-4
Minnesota 101.0 101.0 101.3 101.1 18 6-2
Green Bay 99.3 99.8 98.7 99.3 22 4-4
Chicago 96.0 96.0 96.2 96.1 19 3-5
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 105.1 104.2 105.8 105.0 30 6-2
Atlanta 102.2 102.3 102.2 102.2 28 4-4
Carolina 101.2 100.6 101.6 101.1 23 6-3
Tampa Bay 97.0 96.9 96.8 96.9 23 2-6
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Seattle 103.0 103.2 102.6 102.9 20 5-3
LA Rams 102.4 102.0 102.9 102.4 24 6-2
Arizona 95.7 95.7 95.5 95.6 22 4-4
San Francisco 90.4 90.5 90.1 90.3 24 0-9

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Pittsburgh
2 New England
3 Kansas City
4 Jacksonville
5 Buffalo
6 Tennessee
   
NFC Seeding
1 Philadelphia
2 LA Rams
3 New Orleans
4 Minnesota
5 Seattle
6 Dallas
Wildcard Round
Kansas City over Tennessee
Jacksonville over Buffalo
New Orleans over Dallas
Seattle over Minnesota
 
Divisional Round
Pittsburgh over Jacksonville
New England over Kansas City
Philadelphia over Seattle
LA Rams over New Orleans
 
Conference Championship
Pittsburgh over New England
Philadelphia over LA Rams
 
Super Bowl 52
Philadelphia over Pittsburgh

 

 

 

 

 

 

December 27, 2011

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Week 17–January 1, 2012

It Will Be A Happy New Year For Fans Of…

The playoff races are quite easy to figure out as we enter week 17.  In the NFC, the winner of the Giants-Dallas game wins the East Division and earns the number four seed.  The Giants would earn the spot in the event of a tie.

 

Atlanta and Detroit will be the wildcards, and if they finished tied at 10-6, the Falcons will be the number five seed, and the Lions will be the number six seed.

 

San Francisco holds the tiebreaker over New Orleans for the number two seed, so the only way for the Saints to earn a first round bye is to beat Carolina and hope the 49ers lose to the lowly Rams, a team that will be fighting for the overall number one NFL Draft pick.

 

In the AFC, Denver and Oakland are tied for first in the West Division, but the Broncos hold the tiebreaker over the Raiders in the event they finish tied at 9-7, 8-7-1, or 8-8.

 

Houston is guaranteed the number three seed no matter what they do this week in their game against Tennessee.

 

New England, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh all have a shot at the top seed in the AFC.  If the Patriots win, they earn the spot.  If the Pats lose, Baltimore will take it away with a win over Cincinnati.  Pittsburgh can take it if both New England and Baltimore lose, and they beat Cleveland.

 

As for the Steelers and Ravens, Baltimore holds the tiebreaker edge.  The team not winning the North Division will be the number five seed.

 

The big story involves the final wildcard spot.  Cincinnati has the best percentage chance of taking the final seed.  If the Bengals beat Baltimore, Cinti is in the playoffs.  Should the Bengals lose, they could still earn the number six seed if the Jets lose or tie to Miami and only one or no AFC West teams finish 9-7.  If both Oakland and Denver win, then the Bengals will miss out on the playoffs if they lose to Baltimore.

 

Oakland has the next best chance at earning the wildcard.  The Raiders must beat San Diego.  Of course, if Denver loses, the Raiders would win the West Division.  If both Oakland and Denver win to finish 9-7, the Raiders will earn a wildcard spot if the Jets beat Miami and Tennessee does not finish 9-7.

 

Denver cannot earn a wildcard spot, because if they win this week, they are the West Division champions.  If the Broncos lose, they can still be the West champs if Oakland loses.

 

The Jets have a somewhat remote shot at making the playoffs if they beat Miami and the Bengals lose.  Tennessee would have to lose to Houston, and either Oakland or Denver would have to lose or tie. 

 

Tennessee has the least likely chance of earning a wildcard spot.  If the Bengals lose, and the Titans beat Houston, there are two ways they can earn the final spot.  The first way would be for the Jets to lose to Miami while both Oakland and Denver win their games.  The second way would be for the Jets to Win while either Oakland or Denver fail to win their games.

 

Here is our look at what we think will happen:

 

NFC

The Giants beat Dallas to earn the number four seed.

Atlanta beats Tampa Bay to earn the number five seed.

Detroit becomes the number six seed.

Both San Francisco and New Orleans win, giving the 49ers the number two seed and the bye.

 

AFC

New England beats Buffalo to sew up the number one seed.

Baltimore edges Cincinnati in a near-empty Paul Brown Stadium to earn the number two seed.

Houston already owns the number three seed and rests its starters, but their defense shuts down Tennessee, knocking the Titans out of the playoffs.

Denver comes through in the final minutes to beat Kansas City and win the West, while Oakland handles San Diego to finish 9-7.

Miami beats the Jets to knock them out of the playoffs, thus giving the Raiders the number six seed.

 

Wildcard Round

#6 Detroit at #3 New Orleans

#5 Atlanta at #4 New York Giants

#6 Oakland at #3 Houston

#5 Pittsburgh at #4 Denver

 

Divisional Round

#3 New Orleans at #2 San Francisco

#5 Atlanta at #1 Green Bay

#6 Oakland at #1 New England

#5 Pittsburgh at #2 Baltimore

 

Conference Championships

New Orleans at Green Bay

Baltimore at New England

 

Super Bowl

Green Bay vs. New England

 

Champions

Green Bay

 

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings

NFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Philadelphia Eagles

104.3

103.9

103.5

2

7

8

0

362

318

New York Giants

102.2

101.8

102.0

1

8

7

0

363

386

Dallas Cowboys

100.8

101.0

101.0

3

8

7

0

355

316

Washington Redskins

94.0

94.3

92.9

2.5

5

10

0

278

333

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Green Bay Packers

111.9

111.5

109.7

3.5

14

1

0

515

318

Detroit Lions

104.1

104.3

103.3

3

10

5

0

433

342

Minnesota Vikings

95.0

94.8

93.8

3

3

12

0

327

432

Chicago Bears

94.1

95.5

98.5

3.5

7

8

0

336

328

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

New Orleans Saints

112.5

111.9

106.2

5

12

3

0

502

322

Atlanta Falcons

104.2

104.0

105.7

3.5

9

6

0

357

326

Carolina Panthers

100.2

99.9

99.6

2

6

9

0

389

384

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

89.1

89.3

91.3

3

4

11

0

263

449

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

San Francisco 49ers

106.4

106.5

105.6

3.5

12

3

0

346

202

Seattle Seahawks

100.8

100.7

102.1

2

7

8

0

301

292

Arizona Cardinals

97.5

97.5

99.0

3

7

8

0

289

328

St. Louis Rams

90.3

90.0

87.7

2.5

2

13

0

166

373

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

New England Patriots

109.5

109.3

107.9

1.5

12

3

0

464

321

Miami Dolphins

103.2

102.7

102.7

3

5

10

0

310

296

New York Jets

101.6

101.4

99.9

3.5

8

7

0

360

344

Buffalo Bills

94.8

95.0

100.3

4.5

6

9

0

351

385

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Pittsburgh Steelers

107.3

107.1

105.2

4.5

11

4

0

312

218

Baltimore Ravens

104.9

104.9

106.2

4

11

4

0

354

250

Cincinnati Bengals

98.9

99.0

103.7

2

9

6

0

328

299

Cleveland Browns

94.9

95.0

94.6

1.5

4

11

0

209

294

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Houston Texans

99.6

100.8

102.5

1.5

10

5

0

359

255

Tennessee Titans

99.3

99.0

99.1

1.5

8

7

0

302

295

Jacksonville Jaguars

96.9

96.5

90.9

3

4

11

0

224

316

Indianapolis Colts

92.5

92.3

91.6

3.5

2

13

0

230

411

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

San Diego Chargers

102.1

101.9

101.1

3.5

7

8

0

368

351

Oakland Raiders

97.5

97.4

98.4

1.5

8

7

0

333

395

Kansas City Chiefs

96.3

95.9

95.5

2

6

9

0

205

335

Denver Broncos

94.6

94.8

98.8

1.5

8

7

0

306

383

 

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Spreads

Home Team in CAPS

Vegas Line as of Tuesday, December 27, 2011 @ 3:00 PM EST

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

PHILADELPHIA Washington

12.3

11.6

12.6

9   

46 1/2

ATLANTA Tampa Bay

18.6

18.2

17.9

13   

47   

San Francisco ST. LOUIS

13.6

14.0

15.4

10 1/2

35 1/2

MINNESOTA Chicago

3.9

2.3

-1.7

-1   

40   

GREEN BAY Detroit

11.3

10.7

9.9

-3 1/2

46 1/2

NEW YORK GIANTS Dallas

2.4

1.8

2.0

3   

46 1/2

NEW ORLEANS Carolina

17.3

17.0

11.6

9 1/2

55   

HOUSTON Tennessee

1.8

3.3

4.9

-3   

40 1/2

Baltimore CINCINNATI

4.0

3.9

0.5

2 1/2

38   

Pittsburgh CLEVELAND

10.9

10.6

9.1

7   

36   

JACKSONVILLE Indianapolis

7.4

7.2

2.3

4   

37   

MIAMI New York Jets

4.6

4.3

5.8

1 1/2

41 1/2

NEW ENGLAND Buffalo

16.2

15.8

9.1

11 1/2

51   

San Diego OAKLAND

3.1

3.0

1.2

-3   

49   

Kansas City DENVER

0.2

-0.4

-4.8

-3   

37   

Seattle ARIZONA

0.3

0.2

0.1

-3   

41   

 

December 20, 2011

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Week 16–December 22-26, 2011

Still Some Excitement In Playoff Races

Three of the four wildcard spots are all but assured, but there is still plenty of excitement left in the NFL playoff races.

 

In the NFC East, the Eagles now have a legitimate shot at sneaking in the playoffs as division champions with an 8-8 record.  If Philly beats Dallas and Washington in the final two games, while the Giants lose to the Jets and beat Dallas, then there will be a three-way tie for first at 8-8.  Philadelphia would win the tiebreaker.

 

If Dallas beats Philadelphia this week, and the Giants lose to the Jets, the Cowboys clinch the division title.  If the Giants win out, they will top the Cowboys in the tiebreaker.

 

If for some weird reason the Saints lose to the Falcons this week and the Panthers next week, while Atlanta beats Tampa Bay next week, Atlanta would be the division champion, while the Saints would be a wildcard team.  Don’t count on it happening.

 

In the NFC wildcard chase, the Lions and Falcons grab the spots with one win each.  In the event they both lose out to finish 9-7, then Dallas trumps everybody if the Cowboys finish 9-7 and does not win the NFC East (by virtue of the Giants finishing 9-7).

 

Atlanta would earn a wildcard spot at 9-7 if Dallas does not do so or wins the East over the Giants.

 

Arizona and Seattle can still get in, but only one team can do so—the winner of their game next week.  For the winner of that game to make it, both Atlanta and Detroit must lose out, or Dallas must either win their division or lose out.

 

New England has clinched the AFC East and has the easiest path to homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.  Houston has clinched the AFC South.  Baltimore and Pittsburgh have clinched playoff spots, and the Ravens would clinch the AFC North in any tie.

 

The AFC West is still up for grabs, and all four teams are still alive.  Kansas City would win the tiebreaker if all four teams finished 8-8.  That is the Chiefs’ only chance.  Denver clinches the division with two wins or one win and an Oakland loss.  Oakland clinches the division if Denver loses to Kansas City, and the Raiders win twice.  San Diego clinches the division if the Broncos lose twice and the Chargers win twice.

 

As for the final AFC wildcard spot, if the Jets win out, it is theirs.  In multiple 9-7 ties, Tennessee would win a tiebreaker with the Jets and Bengals.  However, if the Raiders finish at 9-7 as well, Oakland would win this four-way tiebreaker.  Oakland would win a three-way tiebreaker with the Jets and Bengals.  Should Oakland win the West and Denver finish 9-7, the Broncos would edge out a 9-7 Jets and 9-7 Bengals team in a three-way tie.

 

San Diego has the tiebreaker edge in a three-way tie with the Bengals and Jets at 9-7, and the Chargers would also earn the wildcard if Tennessee went 9-7 in this scenario.

 

Here is how the PiRate Ratings project the playoff race this week.

 

AFC                                                                NFC

1. New England 13-3                                     1. Green Bay 15-1

2. Houston 12-4                                              2. New Orleans 13-3

3. Pittsburgh 12-4                                          3. San Francisco 12-4

4. Denver 10-6                                               4. New York Giants 9-7

5. Baltimore 11-5                                           5. Atlanta 10-6

6. Cincinnati 10-6                                          6. Detroit 10-6

 

Wildcard Playoff Round

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh

Baltimore at Denver

Detroit at San Francisco

Atlanta at New York Giants

 

Divisional Playoff Round

Baltimore at New England

Pittsburgh at Houston

Atlanta at Green Bay

San Francisco at New Orleans

 

Conference Championships

New Orleans at Green Bay

Pittsburgh at New England

 

Super Bowl XVI

Green Bay vs. New England

 

Super Bowl Champions: Green Bay

 

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings

NFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Philadelphia Eagles

102.9

101.8

104.2

3.5

6

8

0

342

311

Dallas Cowboys

102.2

101.2

101.5

1.5

8

6

0

348

296

New York Giants

100.8

100.6

99.9

2.5

7

7

0

334

372

Washington Redskins

95.2

95.3

94.8

2.5

5

9

0

252

300

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Green Bay Packers

112.2

112.2

109.7

4

13

1

0

480

297

Detroit Lions

101.8

102.2

103.7

3

9

5

0

395

332

Chicago Bears

93.8

95.6

97.6

3.5

7

7

0

315

293

Minnesota Vikings

93.8

92.8

91.0

3

2

12

0

294

406

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

New Orleans Saints

110.4

109.9

106.5

3

11

3

0

457

306

Atlanta Falcons

106.3

106.0

108.3

1.5

9

5

0

341

281

Carolina Panthers

98.0

97.6

98.0

4.5

5

9

0

341

368

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

91.3

92.4

93.5

2.5

4

10

0

247

401

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

San Francisco 49ers

106.6

106.5

106.6

3

11

3

0

327

185

Seattle Seahawks

100.6

100.4

101.7

2.5

7

7

0

284

273

Arizona Cardinals

98.0

98.9

102.0

3.5

7

7

0

273

305

St. Louis Rams

90.7

89.1

87.8

2

2

12

0

166

346

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

New England Patriots

109.8

109.2

108.1

4

11

3

0

437

297

New York Jets

103.0

103.4

99.9

3

8

6

0

346

315

Miami Dolphins

102.9

100.6

101.6

1.5

5

9

0

286

269

Buffalo Bills

92.0

92.9

96.0

4

5

9

0

311

371

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Pittsburgh Steelers

106.9

107.3

104.8

4

10

4

0

285

218

Baltimore Ravens

105.3

105.9

106.1

1.5

10

4

0

334

236

Cincinnati Bengals

98.4

98.8

100.8

2

8

6

0

305

283

Cleveland Browns

94.5

94.5

93.4

4.5

4

10

0

195

274

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Houston Texans

100.4

103.5

103.4

1

10

4

0

343

236

Tennessee Titans

99.0

99.5

98.2

3

7

7

0

279

278

Jacksonville Jaguars

97.2

95.6

92.8

3

4

10

0

207

293

Indianapolis Colts

91.7

90.2

90.6

1.5

1

13

0

211

395

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

San Diego Chargers

104.4

102.9

103.3

1.5

7

7

0

358

313

Denver Broncos

97.4

99.4

101.0

1.5

8

6

0

292

343

Oakland Raiders

97.3

97.8

96.9

1.5

7

7

0

317

382

Kansas City Chiefs

96.5

96.3

96.4

3

6

8

0

192

319

 

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Spreads

Home Team in CAPS

Vegas Line as of: Tuesday, December 20, 2011 @ 6:00 PM EST

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

Houston INDIANAPOLIS

5.7

10.3

9.8

6   

40   

KANSAS CITY Oakland

0.7

0.0

1.0

1   

42   

Denver BUFFALO

1.4

2.5

1.0

3   

42   

TENNESSEE Jacksonville

3.3

5.4

6.9

7 1/2

40   

CINCINNATI Arizona

1.9

1.4

0.3

4   

40 1/2

NEW ENGLAND Miami

8.4

10.1

8.0

9 1/2

49   

BALTIMORE Cleveland

14.8

15.4

16.7

13   

38 1/2

NEW YORK JETS NEW YORK GIANTS

2.2

2.8

0.0

3   

46   

WASHINGTON Minnesota

3.9

5.0

6.3

6 1/2

44   

CAROLINA Tampa Bay

8.2

6.7

6.0

7 1/2

48   

PITTSBURGH St. Louis

20.7

22.7

21.5

16   

37 1/2

DETROIT San Diego

0.8

2.3

3.4

2 1/2

52   

San Francisco SEATTLE

4.0

4.1

2.9

2 1/2

38   

DALLAS Philadelphia

2.8

2.9

0.8

1 1/2

50 1/2

GREEN BAY Chicago

21.9

20.1

15.6

12   

45   

NEW ORLEANS Atlanta

8.6

8.4

2.7

6 1/2

53   

 

December 13, 2011

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Week 15–December 15-19, 2011

How Things Stand With Three Weeks To Go

We have been projecting our playoff teams for several weeks, and there has been little movement.  So, beginning this week, we will show you where any possible moves may come from.  First, let’s reveal the legitimate play-off tiebreaking procedures.  There are more than what we show, but the chances that any of them will ever be used is infinitesimal.

 

To Break A Tie Within A Division:

1. Head-to-head record—if one team sweeps the other or goes 1-0-1, stop here.

2. Division W-L record

3. Common Games W-L record

4. Conference W-L record

5. Strength of victory (Combined W-L % of all teams defeated)

6. Strength of schedule (Combined W-L% of all teams played)

 

To Break A Tie For The Wildcard Between Two Teams (Different Divisions)

1. Head to head

2. Conference W-L record

3. Common Games W-L record (Must be at least 4 common games)

4. Strength of victory (Combined W-L % of all teams defeated)

5. Strength of schedule (Combined W-L% of all teams played)

 

To Break A Tie Of Multiple Teams For the Wildcard:

First, if any of these tied teams are in the same division, apply the division tiebreaker to come up with just one team per division.

 

1. Head-to-head sweep by one team over all the other teams in the tiebreaker

2. Conference W-L record

3. Common Games W-L record (Must be at least 4 common games for all teams)

4. Strength of victory (Combined W-L % of all teams defeated)

5. Strength of schedule (Combined W-L% of all teams played)

 

Here is a brief tutorial of all eight divisions after 14 weeks.

 

NFC East

The New York Giants currently hold the tiebreaker over Dallas, because of head-to-head.  Of course, they have to play Dallas in week 17.  Both are 2-2 in the division.  Dallas has a 5-4 conference record while the Giants are just 4-6.  Dallas has two other conference games prior to the finale with the Giants—at Tampa Bay and at home against Philadelphia.  New York hosts Washington this week and must win to have any chance to win the division if they lose to Dallas in week 17 and finish tied in the standings.

 

In the event that New York beats Washington and loses to Dallas, while the Cowboys lose to Philadelphia and beat Tampa Bay, the top two tiebreakers would push.  In common games, the Giants would win the tiebreaker.

 

The key game may very well be the Giants-Jets game.  If the Jets win, Dallas could win the East outright with a win in week 17.  The Cowboys are very much alive in the wildcard race, and at 10-6, their chances of getting in would be high.  There are still too many possibilities to go into all the different tiebreakers.

 

NFC South

New Orleans is up two with three to go, and the Saints will not lose three in a row.  Atlanta is leading in the wildcard race, holding the tiebreaker over Detroit.  The Falcons host Jacksonville and should pick up a ninth win this weekend.  In week 16, they face the Saints in New Orleans, and the Saints are tough at home and will be looking for the #2 seed.  A week 17 home game with Tampa Bay gives the Falcons an excellent chance to clinch the #5 seed.

 

NFC North

Green Bay has already clinched the division and has almost clinched homefield advantage to the Super Bowl. 

 

Detroit holds onto the second wildcard spot at the moment, while Chicago is one game back.  This is an interesting possible tiebreaker.  Both the Lions and Bears face the Packers in Green Bay.  For argument’s sake, let’s say the Packers win both.  Chicago finishes at Minnesota in week 17, and the Bears would have to win and hope the Lions lose to Oakland this week and San Diego next week, because Detroit would win the tiebreaker if they finished tied.  Basically, Chicago has to win out and have Green Bay beat Detroit to move ahead of the Lions.  That means winning at Lambeau Field.

 

NFC West

San Francisco has already clinched the division.  Seattle and Arizona have very slim chances at wildcard bids.  Either will have to win out to finish at 9-7 and then hope that three from among the NFC East runnerup, Atlanta, Detroit, and Chicago fell to 9-7 or worse.

 

AFC East

New England has a commanding lead and would have to lose out not to win the division.  Forget that happening; the Pats are in.

 

The Jets were almost given up for dead a few weeks ago, after they fell to 5-5 with a loss to King Tebow and the Broncos.  Coach Rex Ryan’s troops have won three in a row to take over the second playoff spot.  The Jets have two pivotal games against the NFC East—The Eagles and Giants—before finishing at Miami in week 17.  If they drop one of these games and finish at 10-6, then they could lose out to Tennessee if the Titans close with three wins.  Tennessee has an easy closing three games and could run the table.

 

AFC South

Houston won its first division title with their win over Cincinnati.  They can still earn homefield advantage to the Super Bowl, and if it could play a direct role in determining the wildcard.  The Texans should dismiss Carolina and Indianapolis the next two week to move to 12-3.  They would then earn the top seed with a week 17 victory over the Titans.

 

Here is where things get interesting.  Tennessee has Indianapolis and Jacksonville the next two weeks and should be 9-6 when they close the season at Houston.  If the Jets have lost a game, then the Titans would earn the final wildcard spot with a win.  If Houston is playing for homefield advantage, the Texans would use all their regulars and should win.  If homefield advantage is not an issue, because the Texans have already clinched, or been eliminated, look for Tennessee to win against Houston’s reserves. 

 

AFC North

Pittsburgh and Baltimore are tied for first and both headed to the playoffs.  The Steelers have a crucial game at San Francisco this week.  They host the Rams next week before finishing at Cleveland in week 17; that is a trap game if there ever was one.

 

Baltimore has its own trap game.  The Ravens go to San Diego this week, and the Chargers are playing like they were supposed to all along.  Baltimore has been stung on three road games this year, and this one has them travelling three time zones to the West Coast.  The Ravens close with Cleveland at home and Cincinnati on the road.  We expect the Bengals to be out of the race by that time, so Baltimore should be okay for that road game.

 

If the Ravens and Steelers finished tied, Baltimore wins the tiebreaker by virtue of better division record.  Either way, the runnerup will be the #5 seed.

 

AFC West

Can anybody stop the Tebow Express?  Yes, and it will happen this week, when New England wins by more than a touchdown.  However, the Broncos close with Buffalo and Kansas City, two teams the Broncos can beat.  So, let’s figure Denver to finish 10-6.

 

San Diego is 6-7 and thus would be eliminated from the race if that happens.  Oakland is 7-6, so what happens if the Raiders were to win out and finish 7-6?  Denver would still win the tiebreaker based on a better conference record.

 

So, what if Denver goes 9-7, losing at Buffalo in week 16, while Oakland and/or San Diego finish 9-7 as well?  Denver wins all tiebreakers again.  The only way for either Oakland or San Diego to win the division is to pass Denver in the standings.  It looks like Tebow will play in January.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

New York Giants

102.3

101.4

102.8

1.5

7

6

0

324

349

Dallas Cowboys

101.5

101.5

101.4

3.5

7

6

0

317

281

Philadelphia Eagles

101.1

99.8

99.8

2

5

8

0

297

292

Washington Redskins

93.7

95.0

94.4

3

4

9

0

229

290

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Green Bay Packers

114.0

113.2

109.8

3

13

0

0

466

278

Detroit Lions

101.7

103.5

103.1

2.5

8

5

0

367

305

Chicago Bears

95.7

96.6

100.2

4

7

6

0

301

255

Minnesota Vikings

94.6

94.3

92.6

4

2

11

0

274

364

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

New Orleans Saints

109.6

108.9

105.8

5

10

3

0

415

286

Atlanta Falcons

105.0

104.2

106.0

3

8

5

0

300

267

Carolina Panthers

96.4

96.9

98.2

2

4

9

0

313

355

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

92.0

92.9

94.5

2.5

4

9

0

232

370

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

San Francisco 49ers

105.3

106.0

104.7

3.5

10

3

0

307

182

Seattle Seahawks

98.7

99.4

99.9

3

6

7

0

246

259

Arizona Cardinals

98.2

97.8

100.9

2.5

6

7

0

253

288

St. Louis Rams

90.9

90.1

88.0

2

2

11

0

153

326

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

New England Patriots

109.2

108.4

107.8

1.5

10

3

0

396

274

New York Jets

104.8

104.5

102.7

3.5

8

5

0

327

270

Miami Dolphins

102.2

101.0

100.2

3

4

9

0

256

246

Buffalo Bills

92.7

95.5

98.8

4.5

5

8

0

288

341

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Pittsburgh Steelers

108.2

107.6

105.4

4.5

10

3

0

282

198

Baltimore Ravens

106.9

107.1

107.2

4

10

3

0

320

202

Cincinnati Bengals

98.2

99.2

101.7

2

7

6

0

285

270

Cleveland Browns

94.3

95.1

94.1

2

4

9

0

178

254

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Houston Texans

102.0

103.3

103.9

1.5

10

3

0

330

208

Tennessee Titans

100.7

100.9

100.6

1.5

7

6

0

266

251

Jacksonville Jaguars

98.5

97.1

94.6

3

4

9

0

193

252

Indianapolis Colts

90.0

88.1

86.3

2

0

13

0

184

382

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

San Diego Chargers

102.8

101.3

100.7

2.5

6

7

0

324

299

Denver Broncos

98.0

98.8

102.4

1.5

8

5

0

269

302

Oakland Raiders

97.4

97.5

99.2

1.5

7

6

0

290

354

Kansas City Chiefs

94.7

92.7

92.3

1.5

5

8

0

173

305

 

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Spreads

Week: 15—December 15-19, 2011

Vegas Line as of December 13, 4:30 PM EST

 

Home Team in CAPS

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

ATLANTA Jacksonville

9.5

10.1

14.4

11   

42 1/2

Dallas TAMPA BAY

7.0

6.1

4.4

7   

46 1/2

NEW YORK GIANTS Washington

10.1

7.9

9.9

7   

45 1/2

Green Bay KANSAS CITY

13.8

19.0

16.0

14   

45 1/2

New Orleans MINNESOTA

11.0

10.6

9.2

7   

50 1/2

CHICAGO Seattle

1.0

1.2

4.3

3 1/2

35 1/2

BUFFALO Miami

5.0

1.0

-3.1

1   

42 1/2

HOUSTON Carolina

7.1

7.9

7.2

6 1/2

46   

Tennessee INDIANAPOLIS

8.7

10.8

12.3

6 1/2

41   

Cincinnati ST. LOUIS

5.3

7.1

11.7

6   

38 1/2

Detroit OAKLAND

2.8

4.5

2.4

1   

47 1/2

New England DENVER

9.7

8.1

3.9

6   

45 1/2

PHILADELPHIA New York Jets

1.7

2.7

0.9

2 1/2

44   

ARIZONA Cleveland

6.4

5.2

9.3

6 1/2

37 1/2

Baltimore SAN DIEGO

1.6

3.3

4.0

2 1/2

44   

SAN FRANCISCO Pittsburgh

0.6

1.9

2.8

2   

40 1/2

 

December 6, 2011

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Week 14–December 8-12, 2011

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:06 pm

It Can’t Work, So Now Look For More Teams To Try It

How many weeks in a row have you heard some NFL pundit proclaim that Denver’s option offense cannot work, even with the great Tim Tebow running the team and with two excellent running backs in Willis McGahee and Lance Ball?  Throw in a healthy Knowshon Moreno, assuming he will come back full strength from his knee injury in 2012, and this offense could put up more rushing yards than the old Miami Dolphins Super Bowl Champion teams in 1972 and 1973.

 

With Tebow as starting quarterback, Denver has averaged 200 rushing yards per game on 40 attempts for a 5.0 average per rush.  The 1972 Dolphins averaged 211 rushing yards per game (with Larry Csonka and Mercury Morris both topping 1,000 yards rushing) on 44 attempts (4.8 avg. per rush).  The 1958 Cleveland Browns, with the greatest running back ever in Jim Brown, averaged 211 rushing yards per game on 40 attempts (5.3 avg per rush).

 

Let’s address some of the issues these so-called experts drag up every week.

 

1. You cannot win if you don’t have a top passing quarterback.

First of all, Tebow’s QB passer rating is 87.9.  That would place him 10th in the league if he had enough attempts to qualify.  He is ahead of Carson Palmer, Joe Flacco, Mark Sanchez, Cam Newton, Phillip Rivers, and Jay Cutler this season. 

 

Second, Tebow’s stats are not the liability experts believe them to be.  With him at QB, Coach John Fox has relied on longer passing plays, ala the old days of the American Football League.  Tebow’s numbers look like an old AFL quarterback’s stats.  He is completing 47.5% of his passes, which is about what Joe Namath completed.  He is averaging 14.1 yards per completion, which is what Namath and Daryle Lamonica averaged when the Jets and Raiders led the AFL in offense.  Best of all, Tebow has tossed 10 touchdown passes against just one interception, something that speaks more of Bart Starr at his peak with the Packers.

 

2. Tebow is going to get hit so many times, he will never withstand it and miss several games.

 

Tebow is 6-3 and 245 pounds, and he carries the ball about 10-12 times per game on average.  Arian Foster is 6-1 and 224 and carries the ball about twice that much.  Tebow stands just as much if not more chance of getting hurt standing back in the pocket than when he is on the move, and by being on the move, his momentum makes him more like Csonka and Brown, or like Joe Kapp or Tobin Rote, quarterbacks from the 1960’s that were known to throw their powerful bodies at smaller defensive backs.

 

Did the pundits of the day question Vince Lombardi when he moved quarterback Paul Hornung to running back and give him the ball 15 times a game? 

 

3. Defenses can stop this offense by putting 8 or 9 in the box.

 

All NFL teams put 8 or 9 in the box in short yardage situations and near the goalline, yet teams still convert for first downs and touchdowns.  Most teams have just one running threat, and defenses can key on that one back, and yet the backs frequently find success.

 

Denver has two and sometimes three backs that can threaten the defense on a play.  If the defense overreacts to the threat of the first runner, they could be burned if he is only being used as a fake.  Throw 8 or 9 defenders to the line and make the wrong move, and any back can burn a defense for a long gain. 

 

Also, when Tebow throws, he often goes deep or at least 5-10 yards longer than most teams go these days.  Just one long completion is enough to turn a game around.  Tebow may throw deep 5 or more times in a game, and if he completed just one, that usually will be enough to force defenses to put only 7 in the box.  Just the threat of the deep pass is enough in itself.  He may not be Aaron Rodgers, but he isn’t Jimmy Clausen either.

 

This new option offense being used by the Broncos may be so impossible to succeed in the NFL, that by next year, you could see two or three more teams trying it out.

 

The truth is that any offense that threatens to stretch the field horizontally and vertically has a chance to succeed if the blocking is good enough.  Yes, it is the offensive line that really determines how good an offense will be.  Tebow will succeed or not succeed based on how the five Horses up front perform.

 

Let us take a look at one other team from the past—the 1976 New England Patriots.  Coach Chuck Fairbanks had come to the NFL from Oklahoma, where he made the Sooners the most lethal running team of all time.  His 1971 team averaged over 470 yards rushing per game.  Prior to 1976, the Patriots had failed as a passing team with Jim Plunkett manning the controls.  Fairbanks turned to youthful Steve Grogan to pilot the Pat Attack.  He had Andy Johnson and Sam “Bam” Cunningham as his principle backs in a split backfield.  The Patriots surprised everyone by running to an 11-3-0 record and earning a wildcard berth.  They penned the only loss on the Raiders, blowing Oakland off the field 48-17.

 

In the playoffs, the Patriots faced the Raiders at Oakland in the opening round.  They led 21-10 at the start of the fourth quarter and were leading 21-17 late in the game when Oakland faced a crucial third and long.  Quarterback Ken Stabler dropped back to pass, and fired off target bringing up fourth and long—except, the referee tossed a flag.  He called a roughing the passer penalty on the Patriots and every camera on instant replay showed there was no roughing.  The penalty gave the Raiders a first down, and they scored the winning touchdown in the final moments. 

 

That Patriot team was good enough to win the Super Bowl.  They were definitely better than the Super Bowl Champion Raiders.  New England could not throw the ball at all.  Grogan’s passer rating was a paltry 60.6.  However, he could run the ball, and he averaged better than six yards per attempt.  Overall, the Pats rushed for 211 yards on 42 attempts (5.0 avg per carry).  They averaged only 125 passing yards per game, more than 25 yards less per game than the Broncos when Tebow starts.

 

PiRate Ratings For The Week

NFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Dallas Cowboys

102.2

103.1

104.5

3.5

7

5

0

283

244

New York Giants

101.6

100.5

102.7

2

6

6

0

287

315

Philadelphia Eagles

98.6

98.5

98.1

2.5

4

8

0

271

282

Washington Redskins

92.9

94.0

93.6

3

4

8

0

202

256

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Green Bay Packers

113.3

112.3

109.3

3

12

0

0

420

262

Detroit Lions

102.0

104.9

102.3

2.5

7

5

0

333

277

Chicago Bears

95.5

95.1

99.0

4

7

5

0

291

242

Minnesota Vikings

94.3

94.5

91.6

4

2

10

0

246

330

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

New Orleans Saints

109.8

108.7

106.4

5

9

3

0

393

269

Atlanta Falcons

104.9

104.0

105.6

2.5

7

5

0

269

244

Carolina Panthers

96.5

96.6

98.9

2

4

8

0

290

324

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

94.0

94.6

97.5

2

4

8

0

218

329

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

San Francisco 49ers

106.0

106.6

104.9

3

10

2

0

288

161

Seattle Seahawks

98.2

98.9

96.9

3

5

7

0

216

246

Arizona Cardinals

97.5

96.4

100.3

2.5

5

7

0

232

269

St. Louis Rams

91.4

90.4

87.8

2.5

2

10

0

140

296

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

New England Patriots

110.0

109.6

108.1

1.5

9

3

0

362

247

Miami Dolphins

104.7

104.1

104.4

4

4

8

0

246

220

New York Jets

103.6

103.7

100.5

3

7

5

0

290

260

Buffalo Bills

93.7

97.0

100.7

4

5

7

0

278

304

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Pittsburgh Steelers

108.6

108.1

105.0

5

9

3

0

268

195

Baltimore Ravens

107.2

107.7

107.0

4

9

3

0

296

192

Cincinnati Bengals

98.2

98.9

102.5

1.5

7

5

0

266

250

Cleveland Browns

93.9

94.8

94.8

2.5

4

8

0

175

240

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Houston Texans

102.0

101.3

101.6

1.5

9

3

0

310

189

Tennessee Titans

100.5

100.8

102.5

2

7

5

0

249

229

Jacksonville Jaguars

96.5

96.1

93.0

2.5

3

9

0

152

238

Indianapolis Colts

89.7

88.4

85.9

2.5

0

12

0

174

358

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

San Diego Chargers

101.8

99.9

100.1

2.5

5

7

0

287

289

Denver Broncos

98.2

97.8

101.0

1.5

7

5

0

256

292

Oakland Raiders

98.1

99.2

99.9

1.5

7

5

0

274

308

Kansas City Chiefs

95.9

93.6

93.5

1

5

7

0

163

268

 

PiRate, Mean, and Biased Spreads For This Week

Home Team in CAPS

Vegas Line as of: Tuesday, December 06, 2011 @ 5:00 PM EST

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

PITTSBURGH Cleveland

19.7

18.3

15.2

14   

39   

BALTIMORE Indianapolis

21.5

23.3

25.1

16 1/2

41   

Houston CINCINNATI

2.3

0.9

-2.4

-3   

37 1/2

GREEN BAY Oakland

18.2

16.1

12.4

11   

52 1/2

NEW YORK JETS Kansas City

10.7

13.1

10.0

9   

36 1/2

DETROIT Minnesota

10.2

12.9

13.2

7   

48 1/2

New Orleans TENNESSEE

7.3

5.9

1.9

4   

48 1/2

MIAMI Philadelphia

10.1

9.6

10.3

3   

44   

New England WASHINGTON

18.6

17.1

16.0

8   

48   

Atlanta CAROLINA

6.4

5.4

4.7

2 1/2

48   

JACKSONVILLE Tampa Bay

5.5

4.0

-2.0

-1   

37 ½

San Francisco ARIZONA

6.0

7.7

2.1

3 1/2

39 ½

DENVER Chicago

4.2

4.2

3.5

3 1/2

35 ½

SAN DIEGO Buffalo

10.6

5.4

1.9

6 1/2

47 ½

DALLAS New York Giants

4.1

6.1

5.3

3 1/2

49   

SEATTLE St. Louis

9.8

11.5

12.1

6 1/2

39 ½

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

We have some changes in this week’s projection.  The Chicago Bears continue to slide with the loss of Jay Cutler and now Matt Forte.  We show the Bears missing out of the playoffs, and there will be a real dogfight for the final playoff berth in the NFC.  Once thought to be out of the race entirely, teams like Arizona and Seattle have something to play for, as 9-7 just might be good enough to finish with the final wildcard spot.  The Detroit Lions could also fall to 9-7, and this would throw both wildcard spots up for grabs.  For now, we will let the Lions keep one and give the other to the Falcons, even though they are limping along.  A 2-2 finish ought to be good enough for Atlanta.

 

In the AFC, we have made only a minor adjustment by moving Pittsburgh ahead of New England for the top spot.  We believe the Steelers have a great chance to win out and get homefield advantage.

 

A F C

1. Pittsburgh 13-3

2. New England 13-3

3. Houston 11-5

4. Denver 10-6

5. Baltimore 11-5

6. Cincinnati 11-5

 

N F C

1. Green Bay 16-0

2. San Francisco 13-3

3. New Orleans 13-3

4. Dallas 9-7

5. Detroit 9-7

6. Atlanta 9-7

 

Wildcard Round

Cincinnati over Houston

Denver over Baltimore

New Orleans over Detroit

Dallas over Atlanta

 

Divisional Round

Pittsburgh over Cincinnati

New England over Denver

Green Bay over Dallas

New Orleans over San Francisco

 

Conference Championships

Pittsburgh over New England

Green Bay over New Orleans

 

Super Bowl

Green Bay over Pittsburgh

November 29, 2011

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Week 13–December 1-5, 2011

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:18 pm

The Ratings And QB Injuries

Most computer ratings base their formulae strictly on the score of games played.  It matters not how team A beat team B 35-21, only that team A won 35-21.

 

The PiRate Ratings are not quite the same as most ratings.  Thus, when Houston suffers the loss of Matt Schaub and then Matt Leinart, forcing T.J. Yates into the starters role, it caused something to happen to the PiRate Ratings.

 

Our ratings are predictive in nature.  We do not rely on average scoring margin combined with strength of schedule to forecast games.  Yes, scoring margin and strength of schedule are part of our three formulae, but we have a different way of looking at the games.

 

First, we do not take a 35-21 Team A win over Team B as strictly a two touchdown win.  We look at how the game played out.  How effective was Team A’s offense against Team B’s defense?

 

Let’s say Team C also beat Team B 35-21 a week earlier, and both games were played at Team B’s home stadium.  What if:

 

Team A gained 400 total yards and could have scored two more touchdowns than they did.  They chose to run the clock out at the end of the game after driving 75 yards to Team B’s 3 yard line.  Earlier in the game, they drove 75 yards to Team B’s 3 and then they chose to go for it on 4th and 2 and came up 3 inches short.

 

Team C gained only 200 yards and scored on an intercepted screen pass and a punt return.  Additionally, Team B gained 200 more yards against Team C than they did against Team A.

 

Are Team A and Team C equal when looking at their games against Team B?  According to most computer ratings, they are.  The PiRate Ratings would estimate on the games played that Team A is about 6 points better than Team C.

 

Because Houston played a good part of their last game with Yates at quarterback (and the same goes for Chicago with Caleb Hanie), we can modify the ratings to show how much weaker the Texans (and Bears) are compare to when they had Schaub and/or Leinart (as well as Cutler).  So, in this week’s ratings, you will see how the loss of quarterbacks has affected our predictions.

 

On the other hand, if Peyton Manning miraculously returned to action this week for Indianapolis to play at New England, we would not have any 2011 data to base his effectiveness.  We could only estimate how many points he would be worth for the Colts, but, we do have a mechanical system in place to account for this.  Indianapolis would be 16 points better off if a healthy Manning was under center; unfortunately, the Colts would still be expected to lose by double digits at Foxboro. 

 

Since all of our ratings have a mean of 100, with every point or fraction thereof we take away from Houston (and Chicago), we have to divvy it up among the other teams.  And, voila:  we have ratings that reflect each team’s current strength and/or weakness.

 

Remember, a rating of 100 is average for a team.  If a team is rated at 106.4, they are 6.4 points better than average, and if they are rated 93.6, they are 6.4 points weaker than average.

 

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings

NFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Dallas Cowboys

102.8

104.3

104.8

3.5

7

4

0

270

225

Philadelphia Eagles

101.2

100.3

101.3

2

4

7

0

257

251

New York Giants

100.3

99.5

102.2

1.5

6

5

0

252

277

Washington Redskins

93.9

95.4

95.3

3.5

4

7

0

183

222

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Green Bay Packers

114.2

113.7

110.2

2.5

11

0

0

382

227

Detroit Lions

102.3

105.2

103.9

2.5

7

4

0

316

246

Chicago Bears

96.8

97.0

97.4

4

7

4

0

288

232

Minnesota Vikings

94.6

94.6

91.6

4.5

2

9

0

214

295

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

New Orleans Saints

109.4

108.6

107.0

5

8

3

0

362

252

Atlanta Falcons

105.6

104.4

106.2

2.5

7

4

0

259

227

Tampa Bay Bucaneers

97.1

96.9

98.5

2

4

7

0

199

291

Carolina Panthers

93.6

93.8

97.3

2.5

3

8

0

252

305

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

San Francisco 49ers

104.9

107.0

104.8

3

9

2

0

262

161

Arizona Cardinals

96.8

95.2

97.4

2

4

7

0

213

256

Seattle Seahawks

95.6

96.6

93.4

2.5

4

7

0

185

232

St. Louis Rams

92.5

90.7

88.7

2.5

2

9

0

140

270

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

New England Patriots

112.3

111.7

109.2

2

8

3

0

331

223

New York Jets

102.6

102.5

100.9

3

6

5

0

256

241

Miami Dolphins

102.1

100.9

99.9

3.5

3

8

0

212

206

Buffalo Bills

94.0

97.7

100.6

4

5

6

0

261

281

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Baltimore Ravens

106.6

107.8

108.1

4.5

8

3

0

272

182

Pittsburgh Steelers

106.2

106.2

105.3

4

8

3

0

233

188

Cincinnati Bengals

100.2

101.1

103.1

1

7

4

0

259

215

Cleveland Browns

94.4

95.4

97.1

2.5

4

7

0

165

216

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Houston Texans

100.9

99.8

99.6

1.5

8

3

0

293

179

Tennessee Titans

100.2

100.6

101.2

2

6

5

0

226

212

Jacksonville Jaguars

99.2

98.1

94.5

3.5

3

8

0

138

200

Indianapolis Colts

88.4

85.8

84.4

3

0

11

0

150

327

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Oakland Raiders

100.1

100.4

102.9

1

7

4

0

260

274

San Diego Chargers

99.4

98.5

99.1

3

4

7

0

249

275

Denver Broncos

97.8

98.3

99.9

2

6

5

0

221

260

Kansas City Chiefs

94.9

91.7

94.1

1.5

4

7

0

153

265

 

PiRate, Mean, and Biased Spreads For This Week’s Games

Week 13: December 1-5, 2011

 

Vegas Line as of 11/29/2011  @ 5:00 PM EST

 

 

Home Team in CAPS

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

Philadelphia SEATTLE

3.1

1.2

5.4

3   

44   

Tennessee BUFFALO

2.2

-1.1

-3.4

-1 1/2

43 1/2

CHICAGO Kansas City

5.9

9.3

7.3

7 1/2

36 1/2

MIAMI Oakland

5.5

4.0

0.5

3   

43   

PITTSBURGH Cincinnati

10.0

9.1

6.2

6 1/2

42   

Baltimore CLEVELAND

9.7

9.9

8.5

6 1/2

37 1/2

New York Jets WASHINGTON

5.2

3.6

2.1

3   

38   

Atlanta HOUSTON

3.2

3.1

5.1

2 1/2

39   

TAMPA BAY Carolina

5.5

5.1

3.2

3   

48 1/2

NEW ORLEANS Detroit

12.1

8.4

8.1

9   

54 1/2

Denver MINNESOTA

1.2

1.7

6.3

Pk

37 1/2

SAN FRANCISCO St. Louis

15.4

19.3

19.1

13   

37 1/2

Dallas ARIZONA

4.0

7.1

5.4

4 1/2

45 1/2

Green Bay NEW YORK GIANTS

12.4

12.7

6.5

7   

53   

NEW ENGLAND Indianapolis

25.9

27.9

26.8

20 1/2

49   

JACKSONVILLE San Diego

3.3

3.1

-1.1

-2 1/2

39   

 

Playoff Projections

There are some changes to this week’s playoff projections.  Detroit has been removed from a wildcard spot, while Atlanta has been added.  Chicago has dropped back to the #6 seed in the NFC with a couple extra losses figured into their finish.

 

In the AFC, Denver is now expected to finish in a tie with Oakland for the West Division title and win the playoff spot based on tiebreakers.

 

Houston is expected to plummet with a 2-3 finish, but the Texans are comfortably ahead of second place Tennessee.  It will cost the Texans a spot in the seedings.

 

N F C

1. Green Bay

2. San Francisco

3. New Orleans

4. Dallas

5. Atlanta

6. Chicago

 

A F C

1. New England

2. Pittsburgh

3. Denver

4. Houston

5. Baltimore

6. Cincinnati

 

Wildcard Round

New Orleans over Chicago

Dallas over Atlanta

Denver over Cincinnati

Baltimore over Houston

 

Divisional Round

Green Bay over Dallas

New Orleans over San Francisco

Pittsburgh over Denver

New England over Baltimore

 

Conference Championships

Green Bay over New Orleans

Pittsburgh over New England

 

SUPER BOWL

Green Bay over Pittsburgh

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