The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 13, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 11: November 15-19, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Seattle Green Bay 5.3 4.7 6.1 46.5
Detroit Carolina -1.3 -1.1 -1.8 51
Atlanta Dallas 3.7 3.5 4.1 45
Baltimore Cincinnati 9.3 9.3 9.2 45
Chicago Minnesota 4.2 3.7 5.0 45
New Orleans Philadelphia 13.0 13.1 14.0 50
Indianapolis Tennessee 1.6 0.3 2.0 45.5
Washington Houston 0.2 -0.6 0.2 45.5
N.Y. Giants Tampa Bay 3.4 3.6 3.2 47
L.A. Chargers Denver 6.7 7.8 7.7 44
Arizona Oakland 9.0 8.3 9.5 38.5
Jacksonville Pittsburgh -5.1 -5.8 -5.6 43.5
L.A. Rams * Kansas City -0.6 -0.2 -1.2 56.5
L. A. Rams Kansas City 2.4 2.8 1.8 56.5
* This is a neutral site game to be played in Mexico City

This game has now been moved back to LA due to unplayable field conditions in Mexico City.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 104.5 104.9 104.6 104.7 23 7-3
N. Y. Jets 94.6 94.0 94.3 94.3 23 3-7
Miami 94.5 94.1 94.2 94.2 22 5-5
Buffalo 92.3 92.2 91.9 92.1 17 3-7
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 107.5 107.7 107.6 107.6 24 6-2-1
Baltimore 103.0 103.3 102.9 103.1 21 4-5
Cincinnati 96.7 97.0 96.7 96.8 24 5-4
Cleveland 95.8 96.1 96.5 96.1 24 3-6-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Houston 101.0 101.1 101.2 101.1 24 6-3
Tennessee 100.2 100.5 100.1 100.3 19 5-4
Jacksonville 99.4 99.0 99.1 99.1 19.5 3-6
Indianapolis 98.9 97.8 99.0 98.6 26.5 4-5
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 107.7 108.0 108.1 107.9 28.5 9-1
LA Chargers 103.3 104.1 103.7 103.7 23 7-2
Denver 99.2 98.8 98.5 98.8 21 3-6
Oakland 89.8 89.8 89.3 89.6 20 1-8
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 101.4 101.5 101.0 101.3 22 4-5
Dallas 99.9 99.8 99.3 99.7 19.5 4-5
Washington 98.7 97.9 98.9 98.5 21.5 6-3
N.Y. Giants 95.5 95.5 95.6 95.5 20.5 2-7
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Chicago 104.2 104.1 105.0 104.4 23.5 6-3
Minnesota 102.6 102.8 102.5 102.6 21.5 5-3-1
Green Bay 100.2 100.8 99.9 100.3 24.5 4-4-1
Detroit 98.9 98.8 98.6 98.8 26 3-6
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 111.4 111.6 112.0 111.7 28 8-1
Carolina 102.7 102.3 102.9 102.6 25 6-3
Atlanta 101.1 100.9 100.9 100.9 25.5 4-5
Tampa Bay 94.6 94.4 94.9 94.6 26.5 3-6
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 107.1 107.7 107.0 107.3 28 9-1
Seattle 102.5 102.5 103.0 102.7 22 4-5
Arizona 96.3 95.7 96.2 96.1 18.5 2-7
San Francisco 95.0 95.2 94.9 95.0 22.5 2-8

 

This Week’s NFL Playoff Projections

As we enter week 11, we add a look at current playoff standings if the season ended today.

Current Playoff Standings

AFC
1 Kansas City
2 Pittsburgh
3 New England
4 Houston
5 L.A. Chargers
6 Cincinnati

 

NFC
1 L.A. Rams
2 New Orleans
3 Chicago
4 Washington
5 Carolina
6 Minnesota

 

Our Projections 

AFC Seeding
1 L.A. Chargers
2 Pittsburgh
3 New England
4 Houston
5 Kansas City
6 Tennessee

 

NFC Seeding
1 New Orleans
2 L.A. Rams
3 Chicago
4 Washington
5 Carolina
6 Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round
New England over Tennessee
Houston over Kansas City
Chicago over Minnesota
Carolina over Washington

 

Divisional Round
L.A. Chargers over Houston
Pittsburgh over New England
New Orleans over Carolina
L.A. Rams over Chicago

 

Conference Championships
Pittsburgh over L.A. Chargers
New Orleans over L.A. Rams

 

Super Bowl 53
New Orleans over Pittsburgh

 

Can the New York Giants Pull Off The Nearly Impossible?

Prior to week 10, members of the New York Giants claimed to the media that they could win their final eight games and finish 9-7 and make the playoffs.  With a 1-7 record at the time of this statement, the chances of winning eight consecutive games and moving from last place to first place was so infinitesimal that the odds of winning the lottery were not much worse.

Yet, if the Giants were to win just one game in the first half of the schedule and then go undefeated in the second half of the schedule to win the division and make the playoffs, it would have precedent.  Yes, this has been done one time before in the post-merger era.

In fact, it was the first year of the merger between the NFL and former AFL.  In the AFC Central, the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers had moved from the former NFL Century Division along with Houston and Cincinnati.  Entering the season, Cleveland was the heavy favorite to breeze to the division title and the second pick to the Baltimore Colts (Which had moved from the NFL Coastal Division to the AFC East Division, as it was ridiculous for the Colts and Rams to be in the same division).  The Browns had advanced to the NFL Championship Game in 1969 and returned the bulk of their roster.

Pittsburgh had been the worst team in the NFL in 1969, going 1-13.  Still, the Steelers were expected to contend with a mediocre Houston Oilers team for second place in the division, but nobody expected either team to contend with Cleveland or for the newly created single Wildcard spot for the AFC.

And, then there was Cincinnati.  The Bengals had been in existence for just two seasons.  They were a dismal 3-11 in 1968, but in 1969, they had one fantastic rookie quarterback.  Greg Cook, a local hero who had been a star quarterback at Chillicothe High School and the University of Cincinnati, had been the Bengals’ first round pick in the  1969 draft.  Cook immediately won the starting quarterback job in training camp.  He was a gunslinger type passer, typical of the type of quarterback that made the AFL more exciting than the conservative NFL.  The Bengals, led by legendary coach Paul Brown, rarely threw short passes.  Their strategy was to stretch the field vertically to open up running lanes for their two starting running backs, halfback Paul Robinson fullback Jess Phillips.

Cook’s debut was similar to Pat Mahomes this year with the Chiefs.  In his very first game, the Bengals beat Miami thanks to two long touchdown passes from Cook to receiver Eric Crabtree.  Nobody thought too much of the game, since the Dolphins were also an expansion team that had yet to build up a decent roster.  In week two, Cincinnati hosted a San Diego Chargers team that was a contender for the AFL West title.  The Chargers were big favorites, and Cook once again hooked up for two long touchdown passes, one to Bob Trumpy and one to future head coach Bruce Coslet.

At 2-0, the Bengals picked up a little notice, but week three was going to obviously be their week for comeuppance.  The powerful Kansas City Chiefs with the best defense in AFL history were coming to the Queen City.  Cook would have no chance against the best defensive line in all of football, the line that would lead KC to the Super Bowl title in a few months.  Because of the great start, NBC made this their nationally televised AFL Game in the early time slot, and yours truly was perched in front of the big Zenith TV watching this game in all hopes that the new phenom could become another Joe Namath and Daryle Lamonica for the much “funner” AFL.

Cook once again opened this game with brilliant passing plays to set up his running backs.  After spotting the Chiefs a couple of field goals, Cook led the Bengals on a scoring drive that ended with a scoring pass to Crabtree.  The Bengals led 7-6, but their history was about to be changed forever.  In the second quarter, Cook dropped back to pass and faced a Chiefs’ blitz by the outside linebackers.  Chiefs’ outside linebacker Jim Lynch knocked Cook to the ground, forcing all his weight on Cook’s throwing shoulder.  Cook would later say he heard his shoulder pop, and he exited the game with intense pain.

The Bengals hung on to win behind back up QB and future head coach Sam Wyche.  They were an incredible 3-0 and led the AFL West over the Chiefs and Raiders.  However, their gunslinger was out of bullets for the next three weeks.  Had doctors been able to diagnose a torn rotator cuff, they would have held Cook out for the rest of the year, but 1969 was a different time.  Cook was expected to come back and play in four weeks, maybe even less if he felt strong enough to throw.

He came back two weeks later, because the Bengals could not move the ball without him in the lineup.  They failed at San Diego and fell to 3-1.  Cook wasn’t ready to face the second best defense in the league in the New York Jets.  He could not get any strength behind his passes, and the Jets’ pass rush forced him to throw quickly in fear of further hurting his shoulder.  He didn’t last a half.  He had to leave the game in the second quarter, and the Bengals lost to the Jets by 14.  It was a mistake for him to try to play, and his shoulder hurt worse than it had after the initial injury.

Cook was held out of play the next two weeks, and the Bengals looked more like the expansion team they were.  A weak Denver team pummeled them, and then the Chiefs punished them in a revenge match at Municipal Stadium in Kansas City.  The loss dropped the Bengals to 3-4 at the halfway mark.  Cincinnati would have to win out to have any chance of making the playoffs, and they had yet to play the powerhouse team of the league, the Oakland Raiders.

Oakland had yet to lose a game in 1969.  This Raiders’ team looked as strong if not stronger than the two previous teams that went 13-1 and 12-2.  At 6-0-1, Oakland led Kansas City by a half-game.  Once again, this was the nationally televised AFL game on NBC that week, and yours truly sat in front of the ole Zenith ready to route the silver and black to an easy victory.

Cook made his last hurrah in this game.  Brown showed his genius in this game.  He used his wideouts as decoys, sending them deep, while placing his tight ends to run intermediate routes over the middle.  Cook hit Trumpy over and over across the middle, setting up third receiver Chip Myers as a surprise.  The strategy worked, and thanks to the Bengals’ defense picking off a trio of Lamonica passes in the first half, Cinti led 24-0 at the half on way to an easy 31-17 victory.  It would be Oakland’s only loss of the season, and it would be the Bengals’ last win of the season.

Cook limped through the rest of the year unable to put any zip on the ball, and the Bengals finished 4-9-1 and in last place in the AFL West.  Prospects were still high for the Bengals, because after an off-season of rest Cook would be ready to return to form in 1970.

However, things did not go according to plan.  Cook never again regained his arm strength as his rotator cuff injury did not heal itself on its own.  He would never again start a game for the Bengals or anybody else.  He appeared briefly in one game four years later, but it was obvious that he would never again be an NFL quarterback.

The Bengals entered 1970 picked to finish in last place, because Sam Wyche was not the quarterback to lead a team to victory in the new AFC.  He didn’t have the arm accuracy of Cook, and he lacked the finesse to hit shorter passes with much success.  The Bengals would have to try to win by pounding the ball with Phillips, Robinson, and new addition Essex Johnson.

In week one, the Bengals pulled off their miracle for the season, or at least that’s what most sports fans believed.  The three running backs combined for 200 rushing yards, and Wyche even contributed with his legs, scoring a rushing touchdown.  Cincinnati upset Oakland once again.

Over the next six weeks, the Bengals performed exactly like they were expected to perform–miserably.  In their first interconference game in their history, Detroit ran over them like a fleet of automobiles leaving the plant.  The passing stats were plain awful–64 yards!  Losses piled up against Houston, Cleveland, Kansas City, Washington, and Pittsburgh.

At the halfway point of the season, Cleveland led the AFC Central with a disappointing 4-3 record.  As expected, Pittsburgh and Houston fought for second place.  The Steelers were 3-4, while the Oilers were 2-4-1.  The Bengals were 1-6, and it looked like a similar second half would give Cincinnati the chance to draft at the top of the 1970 Draft, where Jim Plunkett and Archie Manning were there for the taking.

The Bengals players refused to give up.  A smart future NFL legend was on the Brown’s staff, and he came to Brown with an idea.  Insert backup Virgil Carter at quarterback for Wyche.  Carter had flamed out in Chicago, where he was best when he turned and handed the ball to Gayle Sayers.  Carter had an accurate arm and rather quick ability to read defenses, but his arm strength limited the types of passes he could throw.  Anything longer than 20 yards downfield looked like a beach ball floating to defensive backs.

This intelligent assistant was Bill Walsh.  His idea was what we know today as the West Coast Offense, but it should have been called the Ohio River offense.  Walsh went to Brown with ideas to spread the field horizontally and use all 53 plus yards from sideline to sideline, which would also create holes for the backs to run through, and better yet, more defensive players would be out of position to make tackles if they were spread wide.

Carter had actually become the starting quarterback a few weeks earlier, but it wasn’t until the Bengals went to War Memorial Stadium in Buffalo that the new strategy was implemented.  At 3-4, the Bills were going nowhere, but they had a rookie running back that had to be stopped in O.J. Simpson.  The Bengals figured the best way to stop Simpson was to keep the ball out of Simpson’s hands.  They tried their new ball-control short passing strategy.  It had only mediocre success, but the Bengals’ defense and special teams scored three touchdowns and set up another, as Cincinnati rolled to a 43-14 victory to improve to 2-6.  Cleveland lost to Oakland to fall into a first place tie with Pittsburgh at 4-4, while Houston fell to 2-5-1.  The Bengals were still in last place, but there was a glimmer of hope just two games behind the co-leaders.

In week 9, Cleveland came to Riverfront Stadium in the most important game in the Bengals’ early franchise history.  With Pittsburgh having to play the Chiefs, there was a chance that Cincinnati could finish the day just one game behind the two co-leaders.

Of course, this meant that Cincinnati had to win against their bitter enemy, the team named for their own coach.  It was a cold and windy day, and long passes were not easy to attempt.  Cleveland QB Mike Phipps saw some early success, but he could do nothing else once the winds picked up.  The Bengals shut down Leroy Kelly, and after trailing 10-0, they slowly came back with their short passing game.  The biggest threat this day came off the passing game, but it did not necessarily come from the passes themselves.  Carter noticed that the Browns’ linebackers were dropping wide into the flat zones, as Cleveland tried to take away the short hook and out patterns.  It left a gaping hole in the middle of the field, and when the Browns rushed from the outside-in, it looked to Carter like he could have driven his car in the opening.  Carter actually topped 100 yards rushing for the only time in his career, and Cincinnati upset the Browns.

Pittsburgh lost to the Chiefs, while Houston lost again.  Now, the Browns and Steelers were tied at 4-5, while Cincnnati was 3-6 and Houston was 2-6-1.  The Bengals could see their opportunity.  They were all of a sudden the only hot team in the division.  They truly believed that they would keep winning.  Better yet, the schedule got easier from this point on.

Pittsburgh came to Riverfront the next week, and the Bengals were now a short favorite to win the game.  While Cleveland put Houston out of their misery to square their record at 5-5, Cincinnati blew the Steelers off the astroturf.  Terry Bradshaw lasted long enough to toss three interceptions before getting yanked in favor of Terry Hanratty, but by then, the outcome had been decided.  Pinpoint passing by Carter, solid running by Robinson, and a solid effort by the defense led the Bengals to another blowout win.  Now, after 10 weeks, Cleveland could hear the roar of the Bengals.  The Browns still led the division at 5-5, but Cincinnati was 4-6, while Pittsburgh was also 4-6, making this an exciting race down the stretch

In week 11, Cincinnati benefited from having the worst team in the NFC come to town, and the Bengals clawed New Orleans for an easy victory.  Meanwhile, the Steelers knocked off the Browns, roughing up Phipps and forcing old veteran Bill Nelsen to finish the game.  The three teams were now tied at 5-6, and the media were starting to get on the Bengals’ bandwagon.

Week 12 was the big one.  Cincinnati’s only really tough remaining game took them across the continent to San Diego to face a Chargers team fighting in a three-way race in the AFC West.  It was a must-win game for both teams.  San Diego would be all but eliminated with a loss, while a win and losses by the Raiders and Chiefs would give them a chance to sneak in at the end.

The game was a tough defensive struggle, and for the only time since the implementation of the short passing game, Cincinnati could not move the ball with short passes.  San Diego begged Carter to throw long, and when he did, he was off target.  The Bengals would finish with zero net passing yards this Sunday, and the running game would manage 136 yards.  Few teams win NFL games with 136 total yards, but when you have the best punt returner in football in Lemar Parrish, sometimes you win games on 83-yard punt returns, which is what Cincinnati did when they edged the Chargers by three.

Cleveland topped a breathless Oilers team, but Pittsburgh lost to Green Bay.  The Bengals and Browns stayed tied at 6-6, while Pittsburgh was still in the race at 5-7, but obviously on the verge of elimination.

Week 13 saw the NFL experts picking the obvious.  Cincinnati played at the breathless Oilers, while Cleveland was forced to play the other hot team in the league in Dallas.  The Bengals had no trouble quickly topping the Oilers, rushing for close to 200 yards, while Carter got some rest in the second half.  At the same time, Cleveland could not move the ball at all against the surging Cowboys.  They lost a defensive struggle where they could only muster a safety.  Now, with one week to play, Cincinnati led the division at 7-6, while Cleveland was 6-7.  Pittsburgh lost to Atlanta and was eliminated at 5-8.

All Cincinnati had to do to complete the miraculous turnaround from 1-6 to 8-6 was to top a weak 2-11 Boston Patriots team at Riverfront Stadium.  Cleveland had to beat Denver, as they held the tiebreaker over the Bengals should both teams finish 7-7.

It was never in doubt.  Boston was now in star franchise quarterback mode.  A loss to the Bengals would give the Patriots their choice of Plunkett or Manning.  They wanted Plunkett, and they were sure to get him.  The Patriots looked worse than the 1976 Tampa Bay Bucs would look in six years.  Cincinnati looked like the 1962 Green Bay Packers this day, as they rolled to a 45-7 victory.  Carter’s day was over early, after he went 3 for 3 for 96 yards and a TD.  Cincinnati had done the almost impossible–going from last place and 1-6 in the first half to first place and 7-0 in the second half.  The Bengals were inept against eventual Super Bowl Champion Baltimore in the first round of the playoffs when the Colts used the same tactics as the Chargers to stop the Cincinnati short passing game.  It was still an incredible year to remember in the Queen City, as a third year team won its division.

Now, can the 2018 New York Giants go from 1-7 to 9-7 and win the division?  Chances are less than the chances Cincinnati faced for multiple reasons.

First, the team at the top of the standings, Washington, is 6-3.  The Browns were never three games over .500 in 1970.  It’s possible that the Redskins could go 2-5 the rest of the way, but chances are less than 50-50 that will happen.

Second, Dallas and Philadelphia are not Pittsburgh and Houston.  You have the reigning World Champions that have yet to find their way in 2018, but they are not likely to fold.  Dallas may be an 8-8 team at best, but just one upset in the final weeks could move the Cowboys to 9-7.

Lastly, this Giants team just isn’t good enough to win eight consecutive games.  All they have done so far is beat a lowly 49ers team on Monday Night Football.  Unlike the Bengals in 1970, the 2018 Giants have a tough, almost brutal, closing schedule.  They are one-point favorites over Tampa Bay this week, but they will be underdogs in the rest of their games against the Eagles, Bears, Redskins, Titans, Colts, and Cowboys.  The more likely scenario is a 4-12 finish and not a 9-7 finish.

 

 

November 14, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 11: November 16-20, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Pittsburgh Tennessee 9.5 9.9 9.8 42
Chicago Detroit -4.5 -4.6 -4.4 45
N.Y. Giants Kansas City -7.5 -7.6 -8.3 42
Miami Tampa Bay -2.0 -1.8 -2.4 43
Green Bay Baltimore -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 41
Minnesota LA Rams 0.4 0.7 0.3 43
Houston Arizona 3.9 4.1 3.6 44
Cleveland Jacksonville -7.7 -7.0 -7.9 38
New Orleans Washington 12.7 11.9 13.5 57
LA Chargers Buffalo 9.1 8.6 8.9 44
Denver Cincinnati 1.6 0.6 1.6 39
Oakland New England -4.4 -4.2 -5.0 46
Dallas Philadelphia -0.9 -0.1 -2.2 49
Seattle Atlanta 2.1 2.5 1.7 48

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 107.2 107.4 107.2 107.2 23 7-2
Buffalo 96.4 96.6 96.6 96.5 22 5-4
N. Y. Jets 95.5 95.0 95.7 95.4 19 4-6
Miami 93.0 93.1 92.5 92.9 21 4-5
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 105.2 105.5 105.2 105.3 19 7-2
Baltimore 102.6 103.2 102.4 102.7 19 4-5
Cincinnati 97.9 98.7 97.6 98.1 17 3-6
Cleveland 91.0 91.7 90.9 91.2 20 0-9
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 101.7 101.7 101.7 101.7 21 6-3
Tennessee 98.7 98.6 98.4 98.6 23 6-3
Houston 96.5 96.7 96.1 96.4 22 3-6
Indianapolis 93.7 93.8 93.4 93.6 23 3-7
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 104.5 104.9 104.8 104.7 23 6-3
LA Chargers 102.0 101.7 102.0 101.9 22 3-6
Oakland 99.3 99.7 98.7 99.2 23 4-5
Denver 96.5 96.3 96.3 96.4 22 3-6
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 107.6 106.2 108.8 107.5 25 8-1
Dallas 103.7 103.2 103.6 103.5 24 5-4
Washington 98.8 98.9 98.8 98.8 27 4-5
N.Y. Giants 94.5 94.8 94.0 94.5 19 1-8
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Detroit 102.5 102.7 102.5 102.6 26 5-4
Minnesota 102.2 102.0 102.7 102.3 19 7-2
Green Bay 99.5 99.8 99.0 99.4 22 5-4
Chicago 95.5 95.7 95.6 95.6 19 3-6
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 108.6 107.7 109.3 108.5 30 7-2
Atlanta 103.9 103.8 104.1 103.9 28 5-4
Carolina 102.6 101.9 103.1 102.5 25 7-3
Tampa Bay 97.0 96.9 97.0 97.0 22 3-6
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 104.8 104.3 105.4 104.8 24 7-2
Seattle 103.1 103.3 102.7 103.0 20 6-3
Arizona 95.6 95.6 95.4 95.5 22 4-5
San Francisco 91.8 91.7 91.7 91.7 24 1-9

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Pittsburgh
2 New England
3 Kansas City
4 Jacksonville
5 Tennessee
6 Baltimore
NFC Seeding
1 Philadelphia
2 LA Rams
3 New Orleans
4 Minnesota
5 Carolina
6 Seattle
Wildcard Round
Kansas City over Baltimore
Jacksonville over Tennessee
New Orleans over Seattle
Carolina over Minnesota
 
Divisional Round
Pittsburgh over Jacksonville
New England over Kansas City
Philadelphia over Carolina
New Orleans over LA Rams
 
Conference Championship
New England over Pittsburgh
Philadelphia over New Orleans
 
Super Bowl 52
New England over Philadelphia

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 14, 2012

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 11: November 15-19, 2012

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:48 am

The Playoff Race—Is It Already Decided?

If the playoffs ended today, the 12 teams included would be:

AFC

1. Houston

2. Baltimore

3. Denver

4. New England

5. Pittsburgh

6. Indianapolis

 

NFC

1. Atlanta

2. Chicago

3. San Francisco

4. New York Giants

5. Green Bay

6. Seattle

 

According to our ratings, these 12 teams project to remain the dozen that will make the playoffs.  We have very little change in our projections.

 

In the AFC, we believe the four division winners are already locked up.  Additionally, Pittsburgh should hang onto the top wildcard spot, even with the temporary quarterback issues.

 

We project the Colts to go 3-4 the rest of the way, while Cincinnati has an easy finishing schedule.  We see the Bengals closing 5-2.  Indianapolis has a 2 1/2 –game conference lead over Cincinnati, and if the Bengals and Colts finished tied at 9-7-0, Indy would own the tiebreaker in almost every scenario.

 

In the NFC, we are high on Seattle and believe the Seahawks have the most favorable schedule in the league.  It would not surprise us at all if Coach Pete Carroll’s team wins six of its final seven games and overtakes San Francisco by a half game.  We believe the two wildcard teams will have five losses apiece, so in order for a Minnesota at 6-4-0 or Tampa Bay at 5-4-0 to make the playoffs, they would have to lose no more than one more game.

 

Here is how we project the playoffs as of November 14, 2012:

 

A F C

1. Houston 15-1-0

2. Baltimore 13-3-0

3. New England 12-4-0

4. Denver 12-4-0

5. Pittsburgh 12-4-0

6. Indianapolis 9-7-0

 

N F C

1. Atlanta 15-1-0

2. Chicago 12-4-0

3. Seattle 11-5-0

4. New York Giants 9-7-0

5. Green Bay 11-5-0

6. San Francisco 10-5-1

 

Playoff Projections

Wildcard Round

New England over Indianapolis

Denver over Pittsburgh

Seattle over San Francisco

Green Bay over New York Giants

 

Divisional Round

Denver over Houston

Baltimore over New England

Atlanta over Green Bay

Seattle over Chicago

 

Conference Championships

Baltimore over Denver

Atlanta over Seattle

 

Super Bowl

Baltimore over Atlanta

 

Current PiRate Ratings

NFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New York Giants 104.8 103.7 102.9 102.1 2.5
Dallas Cowboys 100.3 99.6 99.1 98.6 2.5
Philadelphia Eagles 97.2 97.3 97.1 97.1 2.5
Washington Redskins 96.7 96.8 96.6 96.6 2
           
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Chicago Bears 108.5 107.5 106.6 106.1 2
Green Bay Packers 107.2 106.4 104.3 105.2 2.5
Detroit Lions 99.7 100.0 101.7 100.1 2.5
Minnesota Vikings 96.8 99.6 100.8 102.6 3.5
           
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Atlanta Falcons 105.4 106.5 106.0 107.6 3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 102.8 102.4 100.2 101.6 2.5
New Orleans Saints 100.7 102.0 102.9 103.2 3
Carolina Panthers 94.0 94.4 96.7 94.6 1.5
           
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
San Francisco 49ers 108.0 106.5 103.5 104.6 2
Seattle Seahawks 103.5 103.4 103.2 103.1 4.5
Arizona Cardinals 97.3 95.7 96.9 93.6 3
St. Louis Rams 96.5 97.8 98.3 99.1 4.5
           
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New England Patriots 108.8 106.3 102.8 103.1 1.5
Miami Dolphins 98.7 98.5 98.0 98.1 1
New York Jets 97.2 95.9 94.7 94.1 3
Buffalo Bills 95.5 96.6 99.6 97.6 3
           
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Baltimore Ravens 104.1 104.9 105.1 105.6 4.5
Pittsburgh Steelers 102.1 102.7 101.1 103.1 3
Cincinnati Bengals 99.7 100.5 101.2 101.1 4
Cleveland Browns 93.8 94.1 95.2 94.1 2
           
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Houston Texans 110.1 109.6 109.1 108.7 3
Indianapolis Colts 95.4 98.6 100.0 102.1 4
Tennessee Titans 94.5 96.5 97.3 98.6 2.5
Jacksonville Jaguars 89.3 90.3 90.6 91.1 0.5
           
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Denver Broncos 109.4 108.4 105.6 107.1 3
San Diego Chargers 98.3 97.9 99.7 97.1 3
Oakland Raiders 92.5 93.1 93.3 93.6 4.5
Kansas City Chiefs 91.2 90.3 89.7 89.1 2

 

Note: HFA is not merely home field advantage.  It is a combination of home field advantage plus the next opponents’ visiting team disadvantage.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vintage Vegas Totals
Miami BUFFALO 0.2 -1.1 -4.6 -2.5 -1 1/2 45 1/2
WASHINGTON Philadelphia 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 3 1/2 43 1/2
Green Bay DETROIT 5.0 3.9 0.1 2.6 3 1/2 51 1/2
ATLANTA Arizona 11.1 13.8 12.1 17.0 10    44   
Tampa Bay CAROLINA 7.3 6.5 2.0 5.5 1 1/2 48 1/2
DALLAS Cleveland 9.0 8.0 6.4 7.0 7 1/2 43 1/2
ST. LOUIS New York Jets 3.8 6.4 8.1 9.5 3    38 1/2
NEW ENGLAND Indianapolis 14.9 9.7 4.3 2.5 9    53 1/2
HOUSTON Jacksonville 23.8 22.3 21.5 20.6 15 1/2 40 1/2
Cincinnati KANSAS CITY 6.5 8.2 9.5 10.0 3 1/2 43 1/2
New Orleans OAKLAND 3.7 4.4 5.1 5.1 4 1/2 54 1/2
DENVER San Diego 14.1 13.5 8.9 13.0 7 1/2 48 1/2
PITTSBURGH
Baltimore
1.0 0.8 -1.0 0.5 -3 1/2 41   
SAN FRANCISCO
Chicago
1.5 1.0 -1.1 0.5 5    NL

 

 

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