Margins
| AFC | NFC | PiRate | Mean | Bias |
| Kansas City | Philadelphia | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.6 |
Total
| AFC | NFC | Total |
| Kansas City | Philadelphia | 53.5 |
February 5, 2023
PiRate Ratings Super Bowl LVII Spreads
Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: AFC, Chiefs, Computer Rating, Eagles, Kansas City, Margin, NFC, Philadelphia, Super Bowl, Total — piratings @ 1:24 pm
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January 22, 2023
PiRate Ratings NFL Conference Championships–Sunday, January 29, 2023
Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: Philadelphia, San Francisco, Cincinnati, Kansas City, NFC, AFC, Totals, Conference Championship, Margins, January 29 — piratings @ 7:21 pm
Margins
| Home | Visitor | PiRate | Mean | Bias |
| Kansas City | Cincinnati | 5.4 | 4.7 | 3.6 |
| Philadelphia | San Francisco | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.7 |
Totals
| Home | Visitor | Total |
| Kansas City | Cincinnati | 57.0 |
| Philadelphia | San Francisco | 46.5 |
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January 15, 2018
PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Conference Championship Games: January 21, 2018
Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: AFC, Conference Championship, Jacksonville, January 21, Minnesota, New England, NFC, Philadelphia, Schedule, Super Bowl — piratings @ 2:03 pm
All times given are Eastern Standard
Sunday, January 21, 2018
3:05 PM on CBS
Jacksonville Jaguars (11-6-0) at New England Patriots (14-3-0)
PiRate: New England by 7.6
Mean: New England by 8.0
Bias: New England by 7.4
Total: 44
Estimated Realistic Score: New England 27 Jacksonville 17
6:40 PM on Fox
Minnesota Vikings (14-3-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (14-3-0)
PiRate: Minnesota by 2.0
Mean: Minnesota by 1.2
Bias: Minnesota by 2.1
Total: 37
Estimated Realistic Score: Minnesota 20 Philadelphia 17
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January 18, 2016
PiRate Ratings NFL Conference Championship Preview
Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: AFC, Arizona, Carolina, Conference Championship, Denver, January 24, New England, NFC, NFL, Sunday — piratings @ 3:07 pm
Note: We will have computer simulations for the two Conference Championship games on Friday.
| This Week’s Games | ||||
| Week Number: | Conference Championships | |||
| Date of Games: | 24-Jan | |||
| Home | Visitor | PiRate | Mean | Bias |
| Denver | New England | -0.1 | 0.1 | 1.2 |
| Carolina | Arizona | 2.5 | 3.3 | 3.8 |
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September 7, 2011
PiRate Ratings for Pro Football: Week One–September 8-12, 2011
Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: AFC, Football Predictions, NFC, NFL, Pointspread, Ratings, September 11 — piratings @ 5:28 am
Are you ready for some football? For a long time this summer, we weren’t sure we would be able to utter that statement, as the NFL lockout continued without any progress.
So, while the NBA deals with a stoppage that could eliminate the entire 2011-12 season (who is going to notice outside of the handful of remaining NBA fans?), football will go on as if nothing happened. Except for the Hall of Fame Game, nothing was lost.
It is a great thing that the first week of the 2011 season was not cancelled, because in our opinions (really just mine on this one since I am the greybeard), this may be the best opening week of the season since the NFL and AFL merged but were still separate in the late 1960’s.
The schedule is loaded with interesting games, and the NFL schedule-makers are to be applauded for creating a “story” with almost every game on the slate.
It all starts Thursday night. President Obama will be the warm-up act. He will try to offer a pep talk to get people to “buy the Kool-Aid” and believe that his 1-15 of last year that has lost some key players to free agency and traded away the first overall pick in the last draft has a chance to win this year. Most of the fans will quickly realize the pep talk is just that. Another 1-15 or 2-14 season will precede his being fired by the owners of the team next November.
After the speech, defending Super Bowl Champion Green Bay faces the Super Bowl Champion from the year before, New Orleans. Rodgers vs. Brees on opening night will be terrific TV.
On Sunday, the Ravens host Pittsburgh in an early key game. The last seven times these teams have faced off in the regular season, the margin of victory was either three or four points. Expect more of the same.
Tampa Bay hosts Detroit. If the Buccaneers win, Raheem Morris will be a genius, and the fans and media will call for the Bucs to challenge for another 10-win season. If the Lions win, then they will “prove” all the pundits correct when they anointed Jim Schwartz as the new guru.
The Bears host the Falcons in a game of division winners from 2010. Both teams face difficult schedules this season, having to face all four division winners from the NFC plus one from the AFC. This is sort of like an adjunct to the opening game on Thursday night with the second place teams from their divisions facing off.
Houston hosts Indianapolis. Gary Kubiak needs to win and get to the playoffs this year, or he may be a commentator or coordinator in 2012. The Colts will not have Peyton Manning available and will have to do with recently unretired Kerry Collins. The Texans have to win this game, because their next three games are tough. A loss in the opener could tumble the Texans to a 2-6 first half start.
The Rams host the new “Dream Team,” but are the Eagles all that they are cracked up to be? Most championship teams have all-star linebackers on defense, and we do not see one on this roster.
Can Sam Bradford revive the Rams’ offense and make it look like Kurt Warner and Marc Bulger did when the Edward Jones Dome was a very unfriendly place for a visiting team?
The Giants go on the road to Washington, where they have won five consecutive games at Fedex Field. With Philadelphia having a tricky road game, this could give the Giants a great chance to get a leg up on their rival.
Cam Newton’s first game with Carolina will overshadow Kevin Kolb’s Arizona Cardinals debut in Phoenix. The Cardinals fell to 4-12 last year and will benefit from having the easiest schedule in the NFC West. Since 8-8 will probably win this division, and 7-9 could possibly win it again, this is a must-win game for the Cardinals.
San Francisco and Seattle face off in Candlestick Park, so at least one NFC West team will open 1-0, assuming this game does not end in a tie. Don’t forget there is a not-so-friendly rivalry between the two coaches in this game. San Francisco coach Jim Harbaugh and Seattle coach Pete Carroll had their moments when Harbaugh was at Stanford and Carroll was at USC. Remember that 55-21 pasting Stanford put on Carroll’s last USC team, and how he ran up the score?
On Sunday Night, the Jets host the Cowboys. Will Mark Sanchez be able to take New York to the next level? Can Rex Ryan’s defense carry the team back to the playoffs if Sanchez is no better? What about the Cowboys? Jason Garrett guided Dallas to a 5-3 record in the second half of 2010. Can he put two 5-3 halves together?
We get our annual Monday night doubleheader, and the early game should be interesting. Miami hosts New England, and the Dolphins are in a state of flux with multiple losses of personnel from 2010. As for the Patriots, what can they do for an encore after going 14-2 last year?
Here are the opening PiRate Ratings for the 2011 NFL Season. If you want a brief explanation of the three different ratings, see “The Three Pro Football Ratings Explained at: https://piratings.wordpress.com/category/explanation-of-pro-football-ratings/
| NFC East |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
| Philadelphia Eagles |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
105.9 |
106.4 |
106.2 |
| New York Giants |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
105.4 |
104.0 |
105.6 |
| Dallas Cowboys |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
101.3 |
101.8 |
101.9 |
| Washington Redskins |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
94.2 |
94.0 |
93.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
| NFC North |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
| Green Bay Packers |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
107.3 |
107.9 |
108.0 |
| Chicago Bears |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
102.5 |
100.8 |
102.3 |
| Detroit Lions |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
100.2 |
100.0 |
101.4 |
| Minnesota Vikings |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
97.3 |
96.6 |
95.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
| NFC South |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
| New Orleans Saints |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
106.2 |
105.5 |
105.2 |
| Atlanta Falcons |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
105.6 |
105.3 |
106.5 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
98.9 |
100.7 |
99.4 |
| Carolina Panthers |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
91.0 |
92.7 |
89.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
| NFC West |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
| St. Louis Rams |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
96.7 |
98.4 |
99.2 |
| San Francisco 49ers |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
96.0 |
96.2 |
97.1 |
| Arizona Cardinals |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
94.9 |
99.6 |
99.0 |
| Seattle Seahawks |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
92.0 |
95.0 |
94.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
| AFC East |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
| New England Patriots |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
110.5 |
108.0 |
109.5 |
| New York Jets |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
106.0 |
105.2 |
106.3 |
| Miami Dolphins |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
99.3 |
98.5 |
100.6 |
| Buffalo Bills |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
91.7 |
92.5 |
90.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
| AFC North |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
| Pittsburgh Steelers |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
109.0 |
95.0 |
103.9 |
| Baltimore Ravens |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
105.1 |
104.6 |
105.1 |
| Cleveland Browns |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
94.5 |
105.9 |
97.8 |
| Cincinnati Bengals |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
94.4 |
92.9 |
93.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
| AFC South |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
| Indianapolis Colts |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
103.3 |
104.4 |
103.5 |
| Houston Texans |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
101.3 |
101.8 |
102.5 |
| Tennessee Titans |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
96.3 |
95.5 |
93.4 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
96.2 |
97.3 |
97.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
| AFC West |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
| San Diego Chargers |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
106.1 |
104.9 |
104.7 |
| Kansas City Chiefs |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
101.2 |
100.3 |
100.1 |
| Oakland Raiders |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
96.6 |
95.2 |
92.8 |
| Denver Broncos |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
93.1 |
94.4 |
92.8 |
Here are the PiRate Spreads and early lines for Week One of the NFL season.
| This Week’s Games | ||||||
| Home Team in CAPS | (N) Denotes Neutral Site | |||||
| Week 1: September 8-12, 2011 | ||||||
| Vegas Line as of Tuesday, September 6, 2011 @11:45 AM EDT | ||||||
| Favorite | Underdog | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Vegas | Totals |
| GREEN BAY | New Orleans | 3.1 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 4 | 47 1/2 |
| Pittsburgh | BALTIMORE | 2.9 | 0.3 | 0.0 | -3 | 36 |
| Detroit | TAMPA BAY | 1.3 | -0.7 | 2.0 | -2 | 41 |
| Atlanta | CHICAGO | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3 | 41 |
| KANSAS CITY | Buffalo | 12.5 | 10.8 | 12.4 | 5 1/2 | 39 1/2 |
| HOUSTON | Indianapolis | 1.0 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 8 1/2 | 43 |
| Philadelphia | ST. LOUIS | 7.2 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 5 | 44 |
| CLEVELAND | Cincinnati | 2.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 6 1/2 | 36 |
| JACKSONVILLE | Tennessee | 1.4 | 3.3 | 6.0 | 3 | 39 |
| New York Giants | WASHINGTON | 8.7 | 7.5 | 9.2 | 3 | 38 |
| ARIZONA | Carolina | 8.4 | 11.4 | 14.1 | 7 | 37 |
| SAN FRANCISCO | Seattle | 7.5 | 4.7 | 6.4 | 5 | 38 |
| SAN DIEGO | Minnesota | 13.8 | 13.3 | 13.8 | 8 1/2 | 41 1/2 |
| NEW YORK JETS | Dallas | 7.2 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 4 1/2 | 41 |
| New England | MIAMI | 11.2 | 9.5 | 8.9 | 7 | 45 1/2 |
| Oakland | DENVER | 1.0 | -1.7 | -2.5 | -3 | 40 |
Predictions For 2011-2012
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys 9-7
New York Giants 10-6
Philadelphia Eagles 11-5
Washington Redskins 5-11
NFC North
Chicago Bears 9-7
Detroit Lions 8-8
Green Bay Packers 12-4
Minnesota Vikings 6-10
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons 11-5
Carolina Panthers 3-13
New Orleans Saints 12-4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-9
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals 6-10
St. Louis Rams 6-10
San Francisco 49ers 7-9
Seattle Seahawks 6-10
AFC East
Buffalo Bills 5-11
Miami Dolphins 7-9
New England Patriots 12-4
New York Jets 12-4
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens 12-4
Cincinnati Bengals 4-12
Cleveland Browns 7-9
Pittsburgh Steelers 12-4
AFC South
Houston Texans 10-6
Indianapolis Colts 10-6
Jacksonville Jaguars 4-12
Tennessee Titans 6-10
AFC West
Denver Broncos 4-12
Kansas City Chiefs 8-8
Oakland Raiders 5-11
San Diego Chargers 10-6
Playoffs
Wildcard
New York Giants over Philadelphia
Atlanta over San Francisco
Baltimore over Indianapolis
New York Jets over San Diego
Divisional
Green Bay over Atlanta
New York Giants over New Orleans
Baltimore over New England
New York Jets over Pittsburgh
Conference Championship
New York Giants over Green Bay
New York Jets over Baltimore
Super Bowl
New York Giants over New York Jets
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February 1, 2011
The PiRate Ratings’ NFL Playoffs Edition–Super Bowl XLV
Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: AFC, Computer, Fox, Green Bay, Halftime, Line, Money Line, NFC, NFL, Packers, Pittsburgh, Playoffs, Ratings, Simulation, Spread, Steelers, Totals, vegas — piratings @ 1:03 pm
Super Bowl XLV
Sunday, February 6, 2011, at Arlington, TX
6:30 PM EST on Fox-TV
Green Bay Packers (13-6-0) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (14-4-0)
Ratings
Pirate: Green Bay 113.8 Pittsburgh 107.9
Mean: Green Bay 110.9 Pittsburgh 109.8
Bias: Green Bay 109.0 Pittsburgh 108.8
Vegas: Green Bay by 2 ½
Totals: 44 ½
$-Line: Green Bay -145 Pittsburgh +125
Halftime: Green Bay by 1
Halftime Totals: 22 ½
Our Ratings
PiRate: Green Bay by 5.9
Mean: Green Bay by 1.1
Bias: Green Bay by 0.2
100 Computer Simulations: Pittsburgh 51 Green Bay 49
Avg. Simulation Score: Green Bay 24.6 Pittsburgh 24.2
Simulation Outlier A: Pittsburgh 29 Green Bay 13
Simulation Outlier B: Green Bay 31 Pittsburgh 10
5 PiRates Pick vs. Spread: Pittsburgh – 4 Green Bay – 1
5 PiRates Pick vs. Totals: Over – 5 Under – 0
We do not have official picks during the Playoffs, but here is our Unofficial pick for this week:
Make this an official edict: FORGET IT! The Standard deviation on all our possibilities makes this a truly 50-50 proposition.
If you absolutely must place a legal wager somewhere, we advise going with this one. If the game is as close as our computer data predicts, you might be able to play the extremes and win with this 4-part parlay:
13-Point Teaser
Green Bay +12 ½
Pittsburgh +15 ½
Over 31 ½
Under 57 ½
For What it’s worth, our Conference Championship Unofficial picks merely went 5-0. Here they are again:
1. Green Bay & Chicago Under 21 ½ (Halftime Line)
2. Green Bay -3 vs. Chicago
3. Pittsburgh & New York Jets Over 19 ½ (Halftime Line)
4. Pittsburgh & New York Jets Over 38 ½
5. 10-point Teaser Parlay
1 Green Bay & Chicago OVER 33 ½
2 Green Bay +7 Chicago
3 Pittsburgh & New York Jets OVER 28 ½
Beginning Next Week: We look at the NCAA Basketball Tournament by perusing each conference and telling you where the candidates stand. This will culminate in our annual can’t miss NCAA Bracket Breakdown and our special formula that has been amazingly accurate at picking the winner before the first tournament game is played. It picked Duke to win last year when the Blue Devils were not among the favorites. It predicted a fall by Kansas and Kentucky prior to the Final Four and it correctly tabbed Georgetown and Vanderbilt as the two most likely ranked teams to fall in first round upsets. Check out our past posts in the “College Basketball” Category.
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January 17, 2011
The PiRate Ratings’ NFL Playoffs Edition–Conference Championships
Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: AFC, Bears, CBS, Chicago, Conference Championships, Fox, Green Bay, Halftime, Jets, Line, New York, NFC, NFL, Packers, Pittsburgh, Playoffs, round, Spread, Steelers, Totals, vegas — piratings @ 12:25 pm
Sunday, January 23, 2011
3:00 PM EST on Fox-TV
Green Bay Packers (12-6-0) at Chicago Bears (12-5-0)
Ratings
Pirate: Green Bay 113.7 Chicago 104.1
Mean: Green Bay 111.4 Chicago 103.8
Bias: Green Bay 109.7 Chicago 104.5
HFA: Chicago 0.6
Vegas: Green Bay by 3
Totals: 43 ½
PiRate: GB by 9.0
Mean: GB by 7.0
Bias: GB by 4.6
100 Simulations: GB 54 Chi 46
Avg. Sim Score GB 20.2 Chi 17.9
Outlier A: GB 27 Chi 0
Outlier B: Chi 19 GB 3
5 PiRates Pick vs. Spread: GB – 4 Chi – 1
5 PiRates Pick vs. Totals: Und – 3 Ovr – 2
6:30 PM EST on CBS-TV
New York Jets (13-5-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (13-4-0)
Ratings
Pirate: Pittsburgh 107.8 New York 106.1
Mean: Pittsburgh 108.0 New York 106.8
Bias: Pittsburgh 109.1 New York 106.7
HFA: Pittsburgh 3.6
Vegas: Pittsburgh by 3 ½
Totals: 38 ½
PiRate: Pit by 5.3
Mean: Pit by 4.8
Bias: Pit by 6.0
100 Simulations: Pit 51 NYJ 49
Avg. Sim Score Pit 24.2 NYJ 23.7
Outlier A: Pit 31 NYJ 13
Outlier B: NYJ 34 Pit 12
Note: Seven games decided in OT, including one that was decided with 2:17 left in the
second overtime
5 PiRates Pick vs. Spread: Pit – 3 NYJ – 2
5 PiRates Pick vs. Totals: Ovr – 4 Und – 1
We do not have official picks during the Playoffs, but here is our Unofficial picks for this week:
1. Green Bay & Chicago Under 21 ½ (Halftime Line)
2. Green Bay -3 vs. Chicago
3. Pittsburgh & New York Jets Over 19 ½ (Halftime Line)
4. Pittsburgh & New York Jets Over 38 ½
5. 10-point Teaser Parlay
1 Green Bay & Chicago OVER 33 ½
2 Green Bay +7 Chicago
3 Pittsburgh & New York Jets OVER 28 ½
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December 29, 2010
PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 17–January 2, 2011
Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: AFC, Arizona, Atlanta, Baltimore, Buffalo, Carolina, Chicago, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Computer Ratings, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, East, football, Giants, Green Bay, Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Jets, Kansas City, Line, Miami, Minnesota, New England, New Orleans, New York, NFC, NFL, North, Oakland, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Predictions, Pro, Pro Football, Ratings, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, South, spreads, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Tennessee, vegas, Washington, West — piratings @ 10:38 am
Did You Enjoy Your Christmas Gift?
Last week as our Christmas gift to you, we gave all our readers a free 13-point teaser parlay for you to play. It was a winner! Let’s take a look at it once again.
Pittsburgh – ½ vs. Carolina
Jacksonville +6 vs. Washington
Baltimore +9 ½ vs. Cleveland
Oakland +13 vs. Indianapolis
Thanks to an excellent QB draw by David Garrard, the Jaguars force overtime with Washington and lost on a field goal, which was okay for this parlay. Oakland scored a late TD to prevent the Colts from threatening to ruin the parlay at the end of the day. Pittsburgh and Baltimore were never in doubt. Did you use this and win?
NFL Playoff Possibilities
NFC
East
Philadelphia
Clinched the division and will be the number three seed no matter what happens this week
New York Giants
Can get in as a Wildcard two ways
1. A win over Washington and Green Bay loses or ties
2. A tie with Washington and a both a Green Bay loss and Tampa Bay loss or tie
North
Chicago
Clinched the division and has earned a first round bye regardless of what happens this week
They can clinch home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs with a win plus an Atlanta loss and a New Orleans loss or tie
Green Bay
Can earn a Wildcard spot three different ways
1. A win over the Bears automatically gives them a Wildcard
2. If they lose to the Bears, they still qualify if both the Giants and Tampa Bay also lose
3. If they tie the Bears, they qualify as a Wildcard if both the Giants and Tampa Bay lose or tie
South
Atlanta
Has not clinched the division, but a win or tie over Carolina clinches it
They also would clinch with a New Orleans loss or tie
If they win the division, they will also clinch a first-round bye.
Can clinch home-field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs if they win or tie or if Chicago and New Orleans both lose or tie
New Orleans
Has clinched a playoff spot
If the Saints win and Atlanta loses, they would become division champions and earn home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs
Tampa Bay
Can still earn a Wildcard spot with a win over the Saints plus a Green Bay loss or tie and a Giants loss or tie
West
The winner of the St. Louis—Seattle game will clinch the division and earn the number four seed
If they tie, the Rams win the division
AFC
East
New England
Has already clinched home-field advantage throughout the AFC Playoffs
New York Jets
Have clinched a Wildcard spot.
North
Pittsburgh and Baltimore have already clinched playoff spots
Pittsburgh
Can clinch the division and earn the other first-round bye three different ways
1. A win over Cleveland
2. A tie with Cleveland coupled with a loss or tie by Baltimore
3. A loss to Cleveland, coupled with a loss by Baltimore
Pittsburgh can be a #2 seed with a win, but they could fall all the way to #6 if they lose and both Baltimore and the Jets win.
Baltimore
Can clinch the division and earn a first-round bye two ways
1. A win over Cincinnati coupled by a Pittsburgh loss or tie
2. A tie with Cincinnati and a Pittsburgh loss.
South
This division has not yet been decided
The division winner will play in the opening week in the Wildcard Playoff round
Indianapolis
Clinches the division with a win or tie or a Jacksonville loss or tie
The Colts would be the number three seed if they win and Kansas City loses and the number four seed if they win the division and Kansas City wins or ties
Jacksonville
Can clinch the division with a win over Houston and Indianapolis loss to Tennessee
The Jaguars would be the number four seed.
West
Kansas City
Has already clinched the division title and will play in the Wildcard Round of the playoffs
If they win or tie or if Indianapolis loses or ties, the Chiefs would be the third seed
If they lose and Indianapolis wins, the Chiefs will be the fourth seed
Here is our projected Playoff bracket
NFC
#6 Green Bay at #3 Philadelphia
#5 New Orleans at #4 St. Louis
#2 Chicago hosts the better remaining seed that wins in the Wildcard round
#1 Atlanta hosts the worse remaining seed that wins in the Wildcard round
AFC
#6 Pittsburgh at #3 Kansas City
#5 New York Jets at #4 Indianapolis
#2 Baltimore hosts the better remaining seed that wins in the Wildcard round
#1 New England hosts the worse remaining seed that wins in the Wildcard round
| Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings | |||||||||||
| Listed By PiRate Rating | |||||||||||
| NFC East | Won | Lost | Tied | Pts | Opp | PiRate | Mean | Biased | |||
| Philadelphia | 10 | – | 5 | – | 0 | 426 | 363 | 105.9 | 104.0 | 104.7 | |
| NY Giants | 9 | – | 6 | – | 0 | 377 | 333 | 103.6 | 102.5 | 102.2 | |
| Dallas | 5 | – | 10 | – | 0 | 380 | 423 | 97.9 | 98.4 | 96.6 | |
| Washington | 6 | – | 9 | – | 0 | 288 | 360 | 94.3 | 97.0 | 97.4 | |
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| NFC North | Won | Lost | Tied | Pts | Opp | PiRate | Mean | Biased | |||
| Green Bay | 9 | – | 6 | – | 0 | 378 | 237 | 111.2 | 109.2 | 106.8 | |
| Chicago | 11 | – | 4 | – | 0 | 331 | 276 | 103.9 | 104.4 | 105.0 | |
| Detroit | 5 | – | 10 | – | 0 | 342 | 356 | 98.4 | 100.5 | 100.1 | |
| Minnesota | 6 | – | 9 | – | 0 | 268 | 328 | 97.4 | 98.1 | 99.4 | |
| NFC South | Won | Lost | Tied | Pts | Opp | PiRate | Mean | Biased | |||
| New Orleans | 11 | – | 4 | – | 0 | 371 | 284 | 107.0 | 105.3 | 107.0 | |
| Atlanta | 12 | – | 3 | – | 0 | 383 | 278 | 106.6 | 105.7 | 105.8 | |
| Tampa Bay | 9 | – | 6 | – | 0 | 318 | 305 | 100.0 | 100.2 | 101.0 | |
| Carolina | 2 | – | 13 | – | 0 | 186 | 377 | 90.2 | 88.4 | 88.3 | |
| NFC West | Won | Lost | Tied | Pts | Opp | PiRate | Mean | Biased | |||
| San Francisco | 5 | – | 10 | – | 0 | 267 | 339 | 96.2 | 94.5 | 96.7 | |
| St. Louis | 7 | – | 8 | – | 0 | 283 | 312 | 95.6 | 94.9 | 99.0 | |
| Seattle | 6 | – | 9 | – | 0 | 294 | 401 | 92.0 | 91.6 | 94.1 | |
| Arizona | 5 | – | 10 | – | 0 | 282 | 396 | 89.0 | 91.4 | 91.0 | |
| AFC East | Won | Lost | Tied | Pts | Opp | PiRate | Mean | Biased | |||
| New England | 13 | – | 2 | – | 0 | 480 | 306 | 115.3 | 113.2 | 112.0 | |
| NY Jets | 10 | – | 5 | – | 0 | 329 | 297 | 102.7 | 102.9 | 103.9 | |
| Miami | 7 | – | 8 | – | 0 | 266 | 295 | 99.1 | 99.2 | 98.2 | |
| Buffalo | 4 | – | 11 | – | 0 | 276 | 387 | 95.8 | 96.3 | 95.8 | |
| AFC North | Won | Lost | Tied | Pts | Opp | PiRate | Mean | Biased | |||
| Baltimore | 11 | – | 4 | – | 0 | 344 | 263 | 107.0 | 106.2 | 106.0 | |
| Pittsburgh | 11 | – | 4 | – | 0 | 334 | 223 | 105.5 | 105.7 | 106.2 | |
| Cleveland | 5 | – | 10 | – | 0 | 262 | 291 | 99.3 | 98.2 | 94.4 | |
| Cincinnati | 4 | – | 11 | – | 0 | 315 | 382 | 97.9 | 97.9 | 95.3 | |
| AFC South | Won | Lost | Tied | Pts | Opp | PiRate | Mean | Biased | |||
| Indianapolis | 9 | – | 6 | – | 0 | 412 | 368 | 102.2 | 102.5 | 103.1 | |
| Jacksonville | 8 | – | 7 | – | 0 | 336 | 385 | 98.7 | 97.7 | 98.4 | |
| Houston | 5 | – | 10 | – | 0 | 356 | 410 | 98.0 | 97.7 | 96.5 | |
| Tennessee | 6 | – | 9 | – | 0 | 336 | 316 | 93.9 | 98.3 | 95.8 | |
| AFC West | Won | Lost | Tied | Pts | Opp | PiRate | Mean | Biased | |||
| San Diego | 8 | – | 7 | – | 0 | 408 | 294 | 104.3 | 105.0 | 102.2 | |
| Kansas City | 10 | – | 5 | – | 0 | 356 | 295 | 100.9 | 101.8 | 102.7 | |
| Oakland | 7 | – | 8 | – | 0 | 379 | 361 | 98.9 | 99.0 | 100.5 | |
| Denver | 4 | – | 11 | – | 0 | 316 | 438 | 91.7 | 92.3 | 94.1 | |
| PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads | |||||||
| Home Team in CAPS | |||||||
| Ratings Do Not Reflect Resting of Regulars by Teams That Have Nothing to Play for | |||||||
| Week 17: January 2, 2011 | |||||||
| Vegas Line as of 12:00 PM EST Wednesday | |||||||
| Favorite | Underdog | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Vegas | Totals | |
| KANSAS CITY | Oakland | 6.0 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 3 1/2 | 43 ½ | |
| NEW ENGLAND | Miami | 19.2 | 17.0 | 16.8 | 3 | 43 | |
| INDIANAPOLIS | Tennessee | 11.3 | 7.2 | 10.3 | 9 1/2 | 48 | |
| Jacksonville | HOUSTON | 2.7 | 2.0 | 3.9 | 2 1/2 | 49 ½ | |
| Pittsburgh | CLEVELAND | 2.2 | 3.5 | 7.8 | 6 | 37 | |
| BALTIMORE | Cincinnati | 12.1 | 11.3 | 13.7 | 9 1/2 | 43 | |
| DETROIT | Minnesota | 5.0 | 6.4 | 4.7 | NL | NL | |
| WASHINGTON | New York Giants | 6.3 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 4 | 44 ½ | |
| GREEN BAY | Chicago | 10.3 | 7.8 | 4.8 | NL | NL | |
| PHILADELPHIA | Dallas | 10.0 | 7.6 | 10.1 | NL | NL | |
| NEW YORK JETS | Buffalo | 9.9 | 9.6 | 11.1 | 3 | 35 ½ | |
| ATLANTA | Carolina | 19.4 | 20.3 | 20.5 | 14 1/2 | 41 | |
| NEW ORLEANS | Tampa Bay | 9.0 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 7 1/2 | 47 | |
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St. Louis | 0.4 | 0.7 | -0.9 | 3 | 41 1/2 | |
| SAN FRANCISCO | Arizona | 11.2 | 7.1 | 9.7 | 6 | 38 ½ | |
| San Diego | DENVER | 8.6 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 3 1/2 | 47 | |
Note to our subscription clients: We will not issue an “official” pick for this week’s games because we do not like any of the possible parlays; too many teams have nothing to play for, but at the same time, this does not mean they will not use their regulars for four quarters.
We will only issue three unofficial picks. We advise you to take everything off the table unless you want to speculate with profits.
Comments Off on PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 17–January 2, 2011
December 21, 2010
PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 16–December 23-27, 2010
Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: Aaron Rodgers, AFC, Alex Smith, Arizona, Atlanta, Baltimore, Brett Favre, Buffalo, Carolina, Carson Palmer, Chad Henne, Chicago, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Computer Ratings, Dallas, David Garrard, Dennis Dixon, Denver, derek anderson, Detroit, Donovan McNabb, Drew Brees, East, Eli Manning, football, Giants, Green Bay, Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Jake Delhomme, Jason Campbell, Jay Cutler, Jets, Jimmy Clausen, Joe Flacco, Jon Kitna, Josh Freeman, Kansas City, Kyle Orton, Line, Mark Sanchez, Matt Cassel, Matt Hasselbeck, Matt Moore, Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Matthew Stafford, Max Hall, Miami, Michael Vick, Minnesota, New England, New Orleans, New York, NFC, NFL, North, Oakland, Peyton Manning, Philadelphia, Phillip Rivers, Pittsburgh, Predictions, Pro, Pro Football, Ratings, Sam Bradford, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, Shaun Hill, South, spreads, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Tennessee, Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Trent Edwards, Troy Smith, vegas, Vince Young, Washington, West — piratings @ 11:06 am
| Merry Christmas to all of our PiRate readers. We wanted to send all of you a gift this year, but we didn’t have enough boxes here on the PiRate Ship.
So, instead, we are going to issue a communal gift today. 2010 has been a very successful season for our picks, and our subscribers have pocketed a lot of PiRate booty thanks to a 69% record against the spread. We realize that several readers to this blog are not subscribers and thus can only see our picks from the previous week after the fact. For instance, we made just one selection last week. It was a 3-game, 10-point teaser parlay, and it won. We issued to our subscribers last week a bowl pick. We took the three favorites (BYU, Northern Illinois, and Troy) and moved the spread by 10 points in our favor, making BYU a 2-point favorite, NIU a 9-point ‘dog, and Troy a 7-point ‘dog. All three won outright and covered, making this a winning selection. We are only playing one 13-point teaser this week as our official pick, but we had two good picks to select from. We always make an odd number of selections, because if we play an even amount and win half, it is a losing proposition. We are issuing our top choice to our subscribers, and they will receive this pick Thursday afternoon. Today, we would like to issue our second choice pick to all of you as our gift. We hope it is a winning one. Additionally, we will show you a little behind our strategy. Here it is: We are going with a 4-game, 13-point teaser. For those not familiar with this type of selection, you get to move the pointspreads 13 points in either direction, but you must win four different games. If all four games win, you win the parlay. If anything else happens, including three wins and a push, you lose. There are two key statistics to look at when playing a 13-point teaser. Number one, you need to let the numbers play in your favor by picking a game that might give you an extra point or two. Let’s say a team is a ½-point underdog. If you like the underdog to cover, then you get them at 13 ½ points. That is not in your favor. Winning teams often win games by 14 points. Now, let’s take another team that is a 4 ½-point underdog. Adding 13 points in their favor makes them a 17 ½-point underdog. Many games are decided by 17 points, while many fewer are decided by 18. Another key point is to take a favorite that you feel has a great chance to win and move the spread to make them an underdog. A 5 ½-point favorite becomes a 7 ½-point underdog. Another great way to play teasers is to look at totals. If the total for a game is 36 points, moving it 13 points lower and playing the OVER means you win if the final score is 14-10. The other key statistic is to look for games where your own personal beliefs indicate you are getting extra points in the selection. Let’s say that you believe one team is six points better than their opponent, and they are a 4 ½-point favorite. Giving the 4 ½ points in a straight selection is much too close to your six points difference. One simple botched field goal or one long field goal made by the weaker team would kill your selection. However, if you move the spread by 13 points in your favor, this part of the parlay now makes your favorite an 8 ½-point underdog. The team you think can win by six can now lose by more than a touchdown and still win this part of the parlay. If you think two teams can play 10 times, and all 10 games will be within a narrow point range, you can even play both sides of a game. For instance if Team A is favored by two points over Team B, and you believe that no matter which team wins, it will be by less than 10 points, you can take Team A at +11 and Team B at +15. Here is our Christmas gift to you. 1. 13-point teaser parlay Pittsburgh – ½ vs. Carolina Jacksonville +6 vs. Washington Baltimore +9 ½ vs. Cleveland Oakland +13 vs. Indianapolis
Here is our reasoning for these four games. Pittsburgh is in a must-win situation at home, and the Steelers will be mad after losing to the Jets Sunday. Carolina won at home on Sunday and must turn around and play on Thursday night in possible snowy conditions with temperatures in the upper 20’s. This is a perfect setup for the Steelers. Carolina has nothing to play for in this game. This is basically a pick when you lower the spread to a half point, as you win even if the Steelers win by one. Jacksonville has everything to play for, while the Redskins have nothing. Washington’s big game was last Sunday against their rival. They will not have much left in the tank this week. Coach Mike Shanahan has lost the respect of a handful of players, and they are not going to go all out. The Jags lost a tough game to Indianapolis, and they must now win out to have a legitimate shot at the AFC South title. You get six points as a bonus, but we see the Jags winning this one outright. Baltimore is back in the race for the NFC North title. The Steelers still hold the tiebreaker edge, but Pittsburgh has to play at Cleveland in week 17. The Browns will be up for their rival, which means they may not be so up this week, especially after they just lost to their other big rival last week. We believe Baltimore should win this outright, and we get 9 ½ points by taking the Ravens in this part of the parlay. We have a slight problem with 9 ½, but we do not think Cleveland can win this by a touchdown if they play 10 times. We love the Raiders in this West Coast game. Indianapolis will not have the services of Austin Collie, and the Raiders will hold Peyton Manning to two TD passes. Indy will have a hard time stopping the Raiders’ offense, and we see a high-scoring game. Remember, Oakland is still in the AFC West race, and they finish with the Chiefs in Kansas City. They already hold the tiebreaker over San Diego, and a win in week 17 would give them the tiebreaker over the Chiefs. They have to win in week 16 for week 17 to matter, and then they have to hope the Chargers lose once. We believe Oakland will win this game, but even if they lose, it should not be by more than three to seven points.
PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads |
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| Home Team in CAPS | (N) Denotes Neutral Site | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Week 15: December 16-20, 2010 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Vegas Line as of 12:00 PM EDT Tuesday | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Favorite | Underdog | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Vegas | Totals | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| PITTSBURGH | Carolina | 18.7 | 20.7 | 20.4 | 13.5 | 37 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Dallas | ARIZONA | 7.5 | 5.6 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 45 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MIAMI | Detroit | 4.9 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 41.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| PHILADELPHIA | Minnesota | 16.1 | 13 | 15.4 | NL | NL | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| JACKSONVILLE | Washington | 8.2 | 5.1 | 8.6 | 7 | 45.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ST. LOUIS | San Francisco | 1.6 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 39.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| TAMPA BAY | Seattle | 7.2 | 7.8 | 7.2 | 6 | 44 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| New England | BUFFALO | 12.5 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 44 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CHICAGO | New York Jets | 4 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 36 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Baltimore | CLEVELAND | 4.1 | 4.1 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 38.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| KANSAS CITY | Tennessee | 8 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 5 | 42 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| OAKLAND | Indianapolis | 1.7 | 0.5 | 2.8 | -3 | 47 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Houston | DENVER | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1 | 3 | 48.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
New York Giants | 6 | 5.9 | 4.7 | NL | NL | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| San Diego | CINCINNATI | 8.6 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 7.5 | 44 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ATLANTA | New Orleans | 5.8 | 6.3 | 6 | 2.5 | 48.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
PiRate Playoff Projection
N F C
1. Atlanta 13-3
2. Philadelphia 12-4
3. Chicago 11-5
4. San Francisco 7-9
5. New Orleans 12-4
6. Green Bay 10-6
A F C
1. New England 14-2
2. Baltimore 12-4
3. San Diego 10-6
4. Jacksonville 10-6
5. New York Jets 11-5
6. Pittsburgh 11-5
Wildcard Playoff Round
Chicago over Green Bay
New Orleans over San Francisco
Pittsburgh over San Diego
New York Jets over Jacksonville
Divisional Playoff Round
Philadelphia over Chicago
Atlanta over New Orleans
New England over Pittsburgh
Baltimore over New York Jets
Conference Championships
Philadelphia over Atlanta
New England over Baltimore
Super Bowl
New England over Philadelphia
PiRate QB Passer Rating
Player
Team
G
AYPA
Int %
PiRate
Tom Brady
NE
14
6.8
0.89
114.2
Michael Vick
PHI
11
6.6
1.52
107.6
Matt Cassel
KC
13
5.8
1.31
105.0
Ben Roethlisberger
PIT
10
6
1.49
104.5
Josh Freeman
TB
14
5.7
1.42
103.4
Phillip Rivers
SD
14
7
2.37
102.3
Vince Young
TEN
9
6.2
1.92
101.8
Joe Flacco
BAL
14
5.7
1.77
100.3
Kyle Orton
DEN
13
5.6
1.81
99.5
Colt McCoy
CLE
6
5.7
1.97
98.6
Matt Ryan
ATL
14
5.2
1.76
97.6
Matt Schaub
HOU
14
5.6
2.12
96.7
Aaron Rodgers
GB
13
6.1
2.44
96.7
Peyton Manning
IND
14
5.6
2.46
93.7
Kevin Kolb
PHI
6
4.9
2.61
88.4
Mark Sanchez
NYJ
14
4.6
2.55
87.3
Tony Romo
DAL
6
5.7
3.29
87.0
Jason Campbell
OAK
11
5.1
3.05
85.7
Ryan Fitzpatrick
BUF
12
4.9
2.97
85.3
Jon Kitna
DAL
9
5.4
3.36
84.7
Drew Brees
NO
14
5.2
3.33
83.8
Sam Bradford
STL
14
4.1
2.71
83.1
Kerry Collins
TEN
8
4.5
2.97
83.1
Donovan McNabb
WAS
13
4.8
3.18
82.9
Shaun Hill
DET
9
4.4
3.13
81.1
Jay Cutler
CHI
13
4.9
3.53
80.4
Derek Anderson
ARI
12
4.1
3.06
80.0
Chad Henne
MIA
13
4.7
3.48
79.7
Alex Smith
SF
9
4.4
3.36
79.1
Carson Palmer
CIN
14
4.4
3.46
78.2
Jimmie Clausen
CAR
11
3.1
2.88
76.0
Eli Manning
NYG
14
5
4.19
75.1
David Garrard
JAX
13
4.6
3.96
74.9
Matt Hasselbeck
SEA
13
4.3
3.86
74.1
Bruce Gradkowski
OAK
6
4
4.43
67.4
Jake Delhomme
CLE
5
3.3
4.70
61.1
Brett Favre
MIN
13
4
5.31
59.7
Matt Moore
CAR
6
2
6.99
33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%)) + 105) *0.8
AYPA = Air Yards Per Pass Attempt or Yards Per Attempt – Yards After Catch
AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com
Comments Off on PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 16–December 23-27, 2010
December 14, 2010
PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 15–December 16-20, 2010
Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: Aaron Rodgers, AFC, Alex Smith, Arizona, Atlanta, Baltimore, Brett Favre, Buffalo, Carolina, Carson Palmer, Chad Henne, Chicago, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Computer Ratings, Dallas, David Garrard, Dennis Dixon, Denver, derek anderson, Detroit, Donovan McNabb, Drew Brees, East, Eli Manning, football, Giants, Green Bay, Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Jake Delhomme, Jason Campbell, Jay Cutler, Jets, Jimmy Clausen, Joe Flacco, Jon Kitna, Josh Freeman, Kansas City, Kyle Orton, Line, Mark Sanchez, Matt Cassel, Matt Hasselbeck, Matt Moore, Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Matthew Stafford, Max Hall, Miami, Michael Vick, Minnesota, New England, New Orleans, New York, NFC, NFL, North, Oakland, Peyton Manning, Philadelphia, Phillip Rivers, Pittsburgh, Predictions, Pro, Pro Football, Ratings, Sam Bradford, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, Shaun Hill, South, spreads, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Tennessee, Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Trent Edwards, Troy Smith, vegas, Vince Young, Washington, West — piratings @ 2:14 pm
| Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings | ||||||||||
| NFC East | Won | Lost | Tied | Pts | Opp | PiRate | Mean | Biased | ||
| NY Giants | 9 | – | 4 | – | 0 | 329 | 250 | 107.1 | 105.4 | 105.6 |
| Philadelphia | 9 | – | 4 | – | 0 | 374 | 308 | 107.0 | 105.4 | 105.6 |
| Dallas | 4 | – | 9 | – | 0 | 321 | 366 | 99.0 | 99.8 | 99.9 |
| Washington | 5 | – | 8 | – | 0 | 238 | 310 | 93.6 | 95.8 | 92.6 |
| NFC North | Won | Lost | Tied | Pts | Opp | PiRate | Mean | Biased | ||
| Green Bay | 8 | – | 5 | – | 0 | 306 | 189 | 108.6 | 106.7 | 105.0 |
| Chicago | 9 | – | 4 | – | 0 | 253 | 228 | 101.6 | 101.7 | 103.2 |
| Minnesota | 5 | – | 8 | – | 0 | 230 | 274 | 97.3 | 98.4 | 97.5 |
| Detroit | 3 | – | 10 | – | 0 | 285 | 309 | 96.5 | 98.1 | 94.8 |
| NFC South | Won | Lost | Tied | Pts | Opp | PiRate | Mean | Biased | ||
| Atlanta | 11 | – | 2 | – | 0 | 335 | 243 | 106.9 | 106.1 | 107.5 |
| New Orleans | 10 | – | 3 | – | 0 | 330 | 240 | 106.3 | 105.0 | 106.6 |
| Tampa Bay | 8 | – | 5 | – | 0 | 260 | 267 | 99.4 | 99.9 | 101.2 |
| Carolina | 1 | – | 12 | – | 0 | 164 | 338 | 90.3 | 88.9 | 89.4 |
| NFC West | Won | Lost | Tied | Pts | Opp | PiRate | Mean | Biased | ||
| San Francisco | 5 | – | 8 | – | 0 | 243 | 280 | 98.2 | 97.1 | 99.8 |
| St. Louis | 6 | – | 7 | – | 0 | 245 | 268 | 96.5 | 95.7 | 98.0 |
| Seattle | 6 | – | 7 | – | 0 | 261 | 329 | 94.2 | 93.7 | 96.5 |
| Arizona | 4 | – | 9 | – | 0 | 243 | 351 | 88.4 | 91.3 | 92.5 |
| AFC East | Won | Lost | Tied | Pts | Opp | PiRate | Mean | Biased | ||
| New England | 11 | – | 2 | – | 0 | 415 | 276 | 113.1 | 111.8 | 111.1 |
| NY Jets | 9 | – | 4 | – | 0 | 273 | 242 | 101.6 | 101.1 | 102.5 |
| Miami | 7 | – | 6 | – | 0 | 225 | 244 | 101.2 | 101.4 | 101.9 |
| Buffalo | 3 | – | 10 | – | 0 | 256 | 339 | 97.3 | 97.1 | 96.0 |
| AFC North | Won | Lost | Tied | Pts | Opp | PiRate | Mean | Biased | ||
| Pittsburgh | 10 | – | 3 | – | 0 | 290 | 198 | 106.4 | 106.2 | 107.4 |
| Baltimore | 9 | – | 4 | – | 0 | 294 | 229 | 106.3 | 104.8 | 105.4 |
| Cleveland | 5 | – | 8 | – | 0 | 235 | 252 | 99.9 | 99.1 | 96.9 |
| Cincinnati | 2 | – | 11 | – | 0 | 262 | 345 | 95.0 | 95.1 | 93.9 |
| AFC South | Won | Lost | Tied | Pts | Opp | PiRate | Mean | Biased | ||
| Indianapolis | 7 | – | 6 | – | 0 | 347 | 318 | 100.7 | 101.3 | 101.7 |
| Houston | 5 | – | 8 | – | 0 | 316 | 355 | 100.2 | 100.0 | 99.0 |
| Jacksonville | 8 | – | 5 | – | 0 | 295 | 331 | 99.6 | 99.8 | 101.8 |
| Tennessee | 5 | – | 8 | – | 0 | 291 | 265 | 93.9 | 97.8 | 93.7 |
| AFC West | Won | Lost | Tied | Pts | Opp | PiRate | Mean | Biased | ||
| San Diego | 7 | – | 6 | – | 0 | 354 | 253 | 105.3 | 105.9 | 104.2 |
| Oakland | 6 | – | 7 | – | 0 | 314 | 307 | 99.2 | 99.1 | 99.8 |
| Kansas City | 8 | – | 5 | – | 0 | 295 | 268 | 98.1 | 98.6 | 99.5 |
| Denver | 3 | – | 10 | – | 0 | 269 | 376 | 91.7 | 92.3 | 89.7 |
| PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads | |||||||||||||
| Home Team in CAPS | (N) Denotes Neutral Site | ||||||||||||
| Week 15: December 16-20, 2010 | |||||||||||||
| Vegas Line as of 3:00 PM EDT Tuesday | |||||||||||||
| Favorite | Underdog | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Vegas | Totals | |||||||
| SAN DIEGO | San Francisco | 11.1 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 8 1/2 | 44 1/2 | |||||||
| ST. LOUIS | Kansas City | 1.4 | 0.1 | 2.5 | NL | NL | |||||||
| Houston | TENNESSEE | 3.3 | -0.8 | 2.3 | -1 1/2 | 47 | |||||||
| INDIANAPOLIS | Jacksonville | 4.1 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 5 | 48 1/2 | |||||||
| CAROLINA | Arizona | 4.9 | 0.6 | -0.1 | 2 1/2 | 37 1/2 | |||||||
| Cleveland | CINCINNATI | 1.9 | 1.0 | 3.0 | -2 | 40 | |||||||
| MIAMI | Buffalo | 5.9 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 5 1/2 | 41 | |||||||
| NEW YORK GIANTS | Philadelphia | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2 1/2 | 46 | |||||||
| DALLAS | Washington | 8.4 | 7.0 | 10.3 | 6 | 45 | |||||||
| TAMPA BAY | Detroit | 4.9 | 3.8 | 8.4 | 6 | 43 | |||||||
| BALTIMORE | New Orleans | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 2 | 43 1/2 | |||||||
| Atlanta | SEATTLE | 8.7 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 6 | 45 | |||||||
| PITTSBURGH | New York Jets | 8.8 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 6 | 35 1/2 | |||||||
| OAKLAND | Denver | 10.5 | 9.8 | 13.1 | 6 1/2 | 44 | |||||||
| NEW ENGLAND | Green Bay | 7.5 | 8.1 | 9.1 | NL | NL | |||||||
| Chicago | MINNESOTA | 1.3 | 0.3 | 2.7 | NL | NL | |||||||
| PiRate Passer #
Player |
Team | G | AYPA | Int% | PiRate # | ||||||||
| Tom Brady | NE | 13 | 6.9 | 0.94 | 114.4 | ||||||||
| Michael Vick | PHI | 10 | 6.8 | 1.36 | 110.1 | ||||||||
| Matt Cassel | KC | 12 | 5.9 | 1.13 | 107.1 | ||||||||
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 9 | 6.2 | 1.72 | 103.6 | ||||||||
| Josh Freeman | TB | 13 | 5.6 | 1.54 | 101.8 | ||||||||
| Vince Young | TEN | 9 | 6.2 | 1.92 | 101.8 | ||||||||
| Phillip Rivers | SD | 13 | 6.8 | 2.51 | 100.0 | ||||||||
| Joe Flacco | BAL | 13 | 5.7 | 1.86 | 99.6 | ||||||||
| Kyle Orton | DEN | 13 | 5.6 | 1.81 | 99.5 | ||||||||
| Matt Ryan | ATL | 13 | 5.3 | 1.68 | 98.9 | ||||||||
| Matt Schaub | HOU | 13 | 5.8 | 2.15 | 97.6 | ||||||||
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | 13 | 6.1 | 2.44 | 96.7 | ||||||||
| Troy Smith | SF | 5 | 5.6 | 2.38 | 94.4 | ||||||||
| Colt McCoy | CLE | 5 | 5.4 | 2.36 | 93.5 | ||||||||
| Peyton Manning | IND | 13 | 5.6 | 2.63 | 92.2 | ||||||||
| Jason Campbell | OAK | 10 | 5 | 2.54 | 89.6 | ||||||||
| Kevin Kolb | PHI | 6 | 4.9 | 2.61 | 88.4 | ||||||||
| Tony Romo | DAL | 6 | 5.7 | 3.29 | 87.0 | ||||||||
| Mark Sanchez | NYJ | 13 | 4.6 | 2.72 | 85.8 | ||||||||
| Sam Bradford | STL | 13 | 4.3 | 2.53 | 85.8 | ||||||||
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | BUF | 11 | 4.8 | 2.91 | 85.3 | ||||||||
| Drew Brees | NO | 13 | 5.3 | 3.43 | 83.5 | ||||||||
| Kerry Collins | TEN | 7 | 4.3 | 2.81 | 83.4 | ||||||||
| Donovan McNabb | WAS | 13 | 4.8 | 3.18 | 82.9 | ||||||||
| Shaun Hill | DET | 9 | 4.4 | 3.13 | 81.1 | ||||||||
| Jay Cutler | CHI | 12 | 4.9 | 3.49 | 80.7 | ||||||||
| Alex Smith | SF | 8 | 4.6 | 3.35 | 80.3 | ||||||||
| Derek Anderson | ARI | 12 | 4.1 | 3.06 | 80.0 | ||||||||
| Jon Kitna | DAL | 8 | 5.1 | 3.83 | 78.8 | ||||||||
| Matt Hasselbeck | SEA | 12 | 4.6 | 3.55 | 78.6 | ||||||||
| Chad Henne | MIA | 12 | 4.7 | 3.63 | 78.4 | ||||||||
| Carson Palmer | CIN | 13 | 4.2 | 3.62 | 75.6 | ||||||||
| Eli Manning | NYG | 13 | 4.9 | 4.34 | 73.3 | ||||||||
| David Garrard | JAX | 12 | 4.4 | 4.14 | 72.2 | ||||||||
| Jimmie Clausen | CAR | 10 | 2.8 | 3.13 | 72.2 | ||||||||
| Bruce Gradkowski | OAK | 6 | 4 | 4.43 | 67.4 | ||||||||
| Brett Favre | MIN | 12 | 4.1 | 5.13 | 61.8 | ||||||||
| Jake Delhomme | CLE | 5 | 3.3 | 4.70 | 61.1 | ||||||||
| Matt Moore | CAR | 6 | 2 | 6.99 | 33.7 | ||||||||
| Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8 | |||||||||||||
AYPA = Air Yards Per Pass Attempt (yards per attempt minus yards after catch)
AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com
NFL Playoff Projections
N F C
1. New Orleans
2. Philadelphia
3. Chicago
4. Seattle
5. Atlanta
6. New York Giants
A F C
1. New England
2. Pittsburgh
3. Jacksonville
4. San Diego
5. Baltimore
6. New York Jets
Wildcard Round
Chicago over New York Giants
Atlanta over Seattle
Jacksonville over New York Jets
San Diego over Baltimore
Divisional Round
New Orleans over Atlanta
Philadelphia over Chicago
New England over San Diego
Pittsburgh over Jacksonville
Conference Championships
New Orleans over Philadelphia
New England over Pittsburgh
Super Bowl
New Orleans over New England
Comments Off on PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 15–December 16-20, 2010
The Pi-Rate Ratings 