The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 23, 2019

PiRate Ratings Super Bowl LIII Preview

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:27 am

Super Bowl 53 Preview

NFC Champion: Los Angeles Rams 15-3-0

AFC Champion: New England Patriots 13-5-0

Date: Sunday, February 3, 2019

Kickoff Time: Approximately 6:30 PM Eastern Standard Time



Phone: CBS Sports App

TV Announcing Crew

Jim Nantz–Play-by-play

Tony Romo–Booth Analysis

Sideline Reporter–Tracy Wolfson

Sideline Reporter–Evan Washburn


This is the best Super Bowl TV talent in this generation, and the equal of Curt Gowdy, Al DeRogatis, and Kyle Rote in Super Bowl III on NBC in January of 1969 50 years ago.


Radio Coverage: Westwood One Radio Sports

Top Radio Market Affiliates

City Radio # Radio Station
Atlanta 92.9 FM WZGC
Austin 104.9 FM WTXX
Baltimore 105.7 FM WJZ
Boston 850 AM WEEI
Charlotte 610 AM WFNZ
Chicago 670 AM WSCR
Cincinnati 1360 AM WSAI
Cleveland 92.3 FM WKRK
Columbus 1460 AM WBNS
Dallas 105.3 FM KRLD
Denver 1600 AM KEPN
Detroit 1270 AM WXYT
Houston 610 AM KILT
Indianapolis 1260 AM WNDE
Kansas City 810 AM WHB
Las Vegas 1100 AM KWWN
Los Angeles 550 AM KLAC
Miami 790 AM WAXY
Minneapolis 100.3 FM KFXN
Nashville 104.5 FM WGFX
New York 660 AM WFAN
Orlando 580 AM WDBO
Philadelphia 1210 AM WPHT
Phoenix 910 AM KGME
Pittsburgh 93.7 FM KDKA
Portland 750 AM KXTG
Sacramento 1140 AM KHTK
San Antonio 760 AM KTKR
San Bernardino 1350 AM KPWK
San Diego 97.3 FM KWFN
San Francisco Bay Area 95.7 FM WGMZ
Seattle 950 AM KJR
St. Louis 101.1 FM WXOS
Tampa 820 AM WWBA
Virginia Beach 94.1 FM WVSP
Washington, DC 106.7 FM WJFK

 and Sirius XM Channel 88

Radio Broadcast Talent

Kevin Harlan–Play by Play

Kurt Warner–Booth Analysis

Others–Mike Holmgren, Ed Werder, Tony Boselli, Scott Graham, and Jim Gray

Nevada Lines

Line as of 12 Noon EST Wednesday, January 23

New England by 2 1/2

Total 57 1/2

Money Line

New England -135

Los Angeles +115


PiRate Ratings Spreads

Pirate: Los Angeles by 1.4

Mean: Los Angeles by 1.4

Bias: Los Angeles by 1.1

Total: 52


Computer Simulations

Data Used: Advanced Metric Statistics for both teams adjusted to strengths of schedules and then using a random number generator of potential outcomes, 100 simulations were run.  We feel that 10,000 simulations artificially lowers the variance, which was already quite low.

100 Sims

Los Angeles Wins: 56

New England Wins: 44

Average Score (Rounded) Los Angeles 30  New England 27

Simulations going over the total: 52

Simulations going under the total: 48

Standard Deviation on the Margin: 3.34

Standard Deviation on the Total: 5.22

Outlier Win for LA: Rams 41  Patriots 24

Outlier Win for NE: Patriots 31  Rams 16

This marks the final football publication for the PiRate Ratings until sometime in the Summer, when we will be in the process of updating the college football ratings for the 2019 season.  Thank You to all that patronize this site.  If you haven’t checked out our other ratings, we cover college basketball with new publications on Monday and Friday until the end of the regular season and then daily through Selection Sunday.  Our annual “Bracketnomics 505” comes out the Monday evening after Selection Sunday, and it has been our most read feature through the years.  We offer all this free to you, because we are a group of math geeks that were once athletes in the dark ages.

Our goal is to supply you with fun information and not to encourage you to wager money using our data for your research.  None of the contributors here at this site ever wager money on our recommendations.  We understand that there are professionals that come to this site, and more than one of you has told us that there is something we put out that does influence how you wager.  We hope for your sake, it doesn’t send you to the Poor House, because  we don’t have any more room here.


January 24, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Super Bowl 52: February 4, 2018

While we have taken a break from doing expanded NFL coverage for this season due to the overwhelming number of you that have indicated your political opposition to the league’s policies or lack thereof, we will expand our coverage just a tad today for Super Bowl 52, but we promise to do it in a tactful way and focus on the real true hero that will be appearing in this game.

You, our patrons, represent an excellent microcosm for football fandom.  The NFL is off a good 10% in television viewership, and pictures of the weekly games have shown all stadiums with more and more empty seats.  The so-called Mainstream Media, with the exception of Fox News, and the top conservative radio hosts like Laura Ingraham, Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, and Michael Savage, blame the increasing decline on things like the high number of concussions, the outlawing of two sports fantasy sites, cord cutting, bad games, and the retirement of Peyton Manning.  Last year, they blamed the Presidential election on the decline, but the decline continued this year, and there was no election.  We all know why a large number of former fans are now former fans and may possibly be permanently former fans.

Read our editorial at the conclusion of this feature.

Super Bowl 52

New England Patriots (15-3-0) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (15-3-0)

Date: Sunday, February 4, 2018

Site: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN

Scheduled Kickoff Time:  6:30 PM EST/5:30 PM CST (local time in Minneapolis)

TV & Announce Crew: NBC with Al Michaels, Chris Collinsworth, Heather Cox, and Michele Tafoya

Radio & Announce Crew: Westwood One with Kevin Harlan and Boomer Esiason

Current Las Vegas Line (on 1/24/2018): New England by 5 1/2

Money Line: New England -220, Philadelphia +180

Total: 47 1/2

The PiRate Ratings Spreads

If you are a new patron to this site, we issue three separate ratings for college and NFL football.  Each rating is a different algorithm based on the same statistical data.

PiRate: New England by 0.3

Mean: New England by 1.5

Bias: Philadelphia by 0.3

Total: 42

100 Computer Simulations 

Every year, we run 100 computer simulations with the help of a college statistics professor’s program.  This might be the last year we can do this, because said professor may move at the end of this term.

If you think last year’s game was exciting, being the first of 51 to go to overtime, you haven’t seen anything yet if the computer is accurate this year.  We’ve never seen a playoff game this close since our simulations began 16 years ago.

Number of New England Wins: 50

Number of Philadelphia Wins: 50

Average Score: New England 22.52  Philadelphia 21.90

Median New England Score: 21

Median Philadelphia Score: 21

New England’s Standard Deviation: 7.04

Philadelphia’s Standard Deviation: 5.04

New England Outlier Win: Pats 38 Eagles 17

Philadelphia Outlier Win: Eagles 30 Pats 14


Our Super Bowl 52 MVP (even before kickoff)

You can have Bill Belichick and Doug Pederson as role models.  Maybe you want to look up to Nick Foles or Tom Brady.  However, we at the PiRates Stand Up to admire referee Gene Steratore.  Steratore lives in the Pittsburgh area.  He has been a single parent for close to 20 years.  He owns with his brother (also an NFL Official) a successful and reputable janitorial supply company.  Call this a testimonial, but since delving into his life a bit more, we have decided to purchase some products from Steratore Sanitary Supplies (

Steratore is also one of the top NCAA basketball officials, doing a large number of Big Ten games as well as NCAA Tournament games.  He may be the best two-sport star you have hardly heard about.

Steratore gets excellent ratings in both sports; his business is outstanding; and he deserves some mention in Father of the Year discussions.

Our hats and hearts go out to such a fine outstanding American, one who believes in hard work as the way to succeed.  You won’t find Steratore making a public statement by dishonoring the flag of the United States of America.

We like to refer to a joke that former President Ronald Reagan made 30+ years ago.  He joked about how Cuba has the same rights as the United States.  In the USA, a citizen can stand up on a street corner and issue his dislike and opposition to the President of the United States.  In Cuba, a citizen can also stand up on a street corner and issue his dislike and opposition to the President of the United States.

Definitely, American citizens have the incredible gift from its founding fathers’ documents that allow them to express their opposition to the government and its laws.  The Bill of Rights belongs as the second document that should be included in the Governing Hall of Fame (Magna Carta number one).

The Flag and the National Anthem of the United States are not members of government.  They are a testament to citizens of this country having the right to publicly oppose and also seek public office ourselves.  Opposing the flag and anthem are indications that a person does not have allegiance to the Constitution of the United States of America.

When NFL players make protests of the anthem and flag, and then the NFL steps into it deeper by refusing to carry a patriotic advertisement (not a freebie either) due to political reasons, this is a line of bunk in the opinions of all 6 PiRates.

How more political can past Super Bowl advertisements, especially last year’s game, be?  Do you remember the Annheiser Busch ad where the original Busch faced all types of hatred from others when he immigrated to this country?  It was sad that Mr. Busch faced trouble when he first moved to the USA (if this is accurate).  However, the timing of this ad when the hot topic of the day was how to deal with illegal immigration created a Budweiser Boycott that has now made the giant corporation reconsider if they will remain a sponsor of the league going forward.

Audi, Coca-Cola, Airbnb, and a hair care company that we cannot remember the name, all ran political ads, ads that offended some part of the population.

How can being patriotic and loving the principles that this country was founded on be considered political, unless it is a covert way of stating that the NFL represents an opposition to our principles of existence, thus implying they lack allegiance to our country?

None of us on the PiRate Ship will watch or listen to the Super Bowl.  We have chosen not to watch or listen to any games all year.  And before, you say we are 100% pro-President Trump or right wing conservatives, 3 of the 6 PiRates voted for Bernie Sanders in the 2016 Primaries.  2 of the 6 supported other GOP candidates that did not win.  The 6th was as usual 100% behind a third party candidate.

However, on the 20th day of January, 2017, all six of us prayed for the well-being of our country, and prayed for the health and well-being of our President and Vice President.  We are 100% behind the system as it was determined in our Constitution.  The flag and anthem are relatives of the Constitution.  You may support no politicians in power today, or you may love them or some of them, but if you do not love your country and do not have 100% allegiance to it, then you are not a real citizen of the country.  If you want to make change to the current status, then do it by playing by the rules laid out in the great document that allowed this nation to continue to exist after 241+ years.

One more thought: this is baseball’s best opportunity to reclaim its birthright as our national pastime.  The 2016 and 2017 baseball seasons were incredible ones, and 2018 might be the best one since six divisional play began.  The New York Yankees and New York Mets should bring fans into the park in larger numbers, while the Los Angeles Dodgers and Los Angeles Angels have great attractions to make it banner years at Dodger Stadium and Angel Stadium of Anaheim.  The Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals will have to hold off the Milwaukee Brewers in what should be an exciting race.  The Cleveland Indians may make a run at their all-time wins record of 111 in 1954, after winning 102 last year and getting better in the off season.  Then, you have the best team statistics can create in the reigning world champion Houston Astros.  If new Angels’ two-way player Shohei Otani more closely resembles Wes Ferrell than Clint Hartung, then the AL West race should be quite interesting.  This looks like the year to come back to baseball if you haven’t sampled the excitement in recent years.


January 2, 2018

PiRate Ratings 2017-18 College Football National Championship Game Preview

2017-18 College Football National Championship Game

#3 Georgia Bulldogs (13-1) vs. #4 Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1)

Date: Monday, January 8, 2018

Time: 8:00 PM Eastern Standard

Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta


Announcers: Chris Fowler–Play-by-play, Kirk Herbstreit–Color commentary, Maria Taylor–Sideline, Tom Rinaldi–Sideline

Radio: ESPN

Announcers: Sean McDonough–Play-by-play, Todd Blackledge–Color commentary, Holly Rowe–Sideline, Ian Fitzsimmons–Sideline

Officiating: Big Ten Staff

Las Vegas Line (as of Tuesday, January 2, 2018, 4:00 PM EST

Spread: Alabama by 4 1/2

Money line: Alabama -200,  Georgia +170

Total: 45 1/2

PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Alabama by 6.5

Mean: Alabama by 3.7

Bias: Alabama by 4.8

Reasonable Expected Score: Alabama 31  Georgia 26

100 Computer Simulations

Wins: Alabama 68  Georgia 32

Average Score: Alabama 33  Georgia 27

Outlier ALA: Alabama 38  Georgia 9

Outlier GA: Georgia 27  Alabama 16 



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