PiRate Ratings NFL Conference Championships–Sunday, January 29, 2023

Margins

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Kansas City	Cincinnati	5.4	4.7	3.6
Philadelphia	San Francisco	3.2	2.2	1.7

Totals

Home	Visitor	Total
Kansas City	Cincinnati	57.0
Philadelphia	San Francisco	46.5

PiRate College Football Ratings: December 1, 2019

This Week’s Conference Championships Spreads

All times given are Eastern Standard

Friday, December 6

Conference	Pac-12
North Division	Oregon 10-2
South Division	Utah 11-1
Site:	Santa Clara
Time:	8:00 PM
TV:	ABC
PiRate:	Utah by 7.1
Mean:	Utah by 6.3
Bias:	Utah by 6.8
Predicted Score:	Utah 27
	Oregon 20

 

 

Saturday, December 7

 

Conference	Sun Belt
East Division	Appalachian St. 11-1
West Division	Louisiana 10-2
Site:	Boone, NC (Appy St.)
Time:	12 Noon
TV:	ESPN
PiRate:	Appy St. by 9.2
Mean:	Appy St. by 8.4
Bias:	Appy St. by 9.1
Predicted Score:	Appalachian St. 35
	Louisiana 26

 

 

Conference	Mid-American
East Division	Miami (O) 7-5
West Division	Central Michigan 8-4
Site:	Detroit
Time:	12 Noon
TV:	ESPN 2
PiRate:	CMU by 2.0
Mean:	CMU by 3.9
Bias:	CMU by 3.1
Predicted Score:	Central Mich. 31
	Miami (O) 28

 

 

Conference	Big 12
1st Place	Oklahoma 11-1
2nd Place	Baylor 11-1
Site:	Arlington, TX
Time:	12 Noon
TV:	ABC
PiRate:	Oklahoma by 5.2
Mean:	Oklahoma by 4.6
Bias:	Oklahoma by 5.4
Predicted Score:	Oklahoma 38
	Baylor 33

 

 

Conference	Conference USA
East Division	Florida Atlantic 9-3
West Division	UAB 9-3
Site:	Boca Raton, FL (FAU)
Time:	1:30 PM
TV:	CBSSN
PiRate:	FAU by 11.9
Mean:	FAU by 10.0
Bias:	FAU by 12.2
Predicted Score:	Florida Atlantic 28
	UAB 17

 

 

Conference	American Athletic
East Division	Cincinnati 10-2
West Division	Memphis 11-1
Site:	Memphis
Time:	3:30 PM
TV:	ABC
PiRate:	Memphis by 6.9
Mean:	Memphis by 7.8
Bias:	Memphis by 8.1
Predicted Score:	Memphis 35
	Cincinnati 27

 

 

Conference	Mountain West
Mountain Division	Boise St. 11-1
West Division	Hawaii 9-4
Site:	Boise, ID
Time:	4:00 PM
TV:	ESPN
PiRate:	Boise St. by 16.9
Mean:	Boise St. by 15.7
Bias:	Boise St. by 18.0
Predicted Score:	Boise St. 48
	Hawaii 31

 

 

Conference	Southeastern
East Division	Georgia 11-1
West Division	LSU 12-0
Site:	Atlanta
Time:	4:00 PM
TV:	CBS
PiRate:	LSU by 5.6
Mean:	LSU by 5.3
Bias:	LSU by 5.5
Predicted Score:	LSU 35
	Georgia 30

 

 

Conference	Atlantic Coast
Atlantic Division	Clemson 12-0
Coastal Division	Virginia 9-3
Site:	Charlotte
Time:	7:30 PM
TV:	ABC
PiRate:	Clemson by 30.2
Mean:	Clemson by 28.3
Bias:	Clemson by 30.9
Predicted Score:	Clemson 40
	Virginia 10

 

 

Conference	Big Ten
East Division	Ohio St. 12-0
West Division	Wisconsin 10-2
Site:	Indianapolis
Time:	8:00 PM
TV:	Fox
PiRate:	Ohio St. by 19.4
Mean:	Ohio St. by 18.8
Bias:	Ohio St. by 20.5
Predicted Score:	Ohio St. 44
	Wisconsin 24

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Ohio St.	141.9	141.1	143.0	142.0
2	Clemson	138.8	137.0	140.0	138.6
3	L S U	135.5	133.5	135.7	134.9
4	Georgia	128.4	126.7	128.7	127.9
5	Alabama	128.8	125.7	129.1	127.9
6	Utah	126.8	125.9	127.5	126.7
7	Michigan	125.6	124.3	125.9	125.3
8	Florida	125.9	123.5	125.8	125.0
9	Oklahoma	122.9	122.4	122.5	122.6
10	Wisconsin	122.5	122.3	122.6	122.5
11	Auburn	122.9	121.1	122.7	122.2
12	Penn St.	121.4	120.5	121.4	121.1
13	Notre Dame	120.8	119.9	121.0	120.6
14	Oregon	119.5	119.4	120.2	119.7
15	Iowa	118.4	116.9	118.0	117.8
16	Baylor	117.7	117.8	117.1	117.5
17	Minnesota	117.2	116.8	116.5	116.8
18	Texas A&M	115.1	112.5	113.3	113.7
19	Washington	113.1	112.8	114.0	113.3
20	Iowa St.	112.9	113.2	112.7	112.9
21	Kansas St.	112.4	112.3	112.3	112.3
22	Kentucky	112.4	111.3	111.6	111.8
23	Central Florida	111.6	111.1	112.1	111.6
24	U S C	111.0	111.6	111.8	111.5
25	Texas	111.1	111.4	111.0	111.2
26	Memphis	110.2	110.6	111.4	110.7
27	Virginia Tech	110.5	110.5	111.2	110.7
28	Tennessee	110.7	110.4	110.1	110.4
29	Oklahoma St.	110.3	110.8	109.7	110.3
30	Mississippi St.	109.8	106.6	113.3	109.9
31	Washington St.	110.0	109.2	110.0	109.7
32	Indiana	109.9	108.9	109.5	109.4
33	Appalachian St.	109.6	109.1	109.0	109.2
34	Virginia	108.6	108.7	109.1	108.8
35	Missouri	109.9	107.5	108.5	108.6
36	T C U	107.7	109.7	107.9	108.4
37	Boise St.	107.9	108.2	108.0	108.0
38	South Carolina	109.0	107.1	108.0	108.0
39	North Carolina	107.7	107.6	108.4	107.9
40	Arizona St.	107.9	107.3	108.1	107.8
41	Ole Miss	107.8	106.9	108.1	107.6
42	Michigan St.	107.7	106.8	106.7	107.1
43	Nebraska	106.3	106.5	105.6	106.1
44	Cincinnati	105.8	105.3	105.8	105.6
45	Air Force	104.6	106.4	105.6	105.5
46	SMU	104.8	104.7	105.4	105.0
47	Florida St.	104.8	104.6	104.9	104.8
48	Miami (Fla.)	104.5	104.0	105.1	104.5
49	Texas Tech	104.6	104.9	103.7	104.4
50	Purdue	104.1	103.9	103.7	103.9
51	California	103.7	103.5	104.2	103.8
52	Wake Forest	103.1	102.4	103.3	102.9
53	Louisiana	102.9	103.2	102.4	102.8
54	Northwestern	103.4	102.6	102.1	102.7
55	West Virginia	102.7	102.7	102.3	102.5
56	Illinois	102.2	102.8	101.8	102.3
57	Pittsburgh	102.4	101.8	102.3	102.2
58	BYU	102.1	102.3	101.6	102.0
59	Boston College	101.9	101.4	102.0	101.8
60	Oregon St.	101.2	102.1	101.5	101.6
61	Navy	100.3	102.6	101.6	101.5
62	Stanford	101.6	100.6	100.8	101.0
63	Louisville	100.2	99.8	99.9	100.0
64	Tulane	99.6	100.2	100.0	99.9
65	Temple	99.4	99.3	100.5	99.7
66	Wyoming	98.6	100.3	98.9	99.3
67	Syracuse	99.7	98.9	98.9	99.2
68	Duke	99.4	98.6	99.1	99.0
69	Georgia Southern	99.0	99.1	98.7	99.0
70	Florida Atlantic	98.5	98.5	99.6	98.9
71	Colorado	98.6	98.5	98.7	98.6
72	U C L A	98.7	98.3	98.2	98.4
73	Ohio	98.4	97.6	98.9	98.3
74	San Diego St.	97.6	99.2	97.6	98.1
75	Hawaii	97.0	98.4	96.4	97.3
76	Western Michigan	97.6	96.6	97.1	97.1
77	Arizona	97.0	96.8	96.8	96.9
78	Utah St.	96.8	96.5	97.1	96.8
79	Western Kentucky	95.3	95.9	96.5	95.9
80	Houston	94.8	95.7	96.4	95.6
81	Buffalo	94.8	95.4	96.2	95.4
82	Tulsa	94.1	95.1	95.4	94.9
83	Kansas	93.7	94.7	93.8	94.1
84	Army	94.1	94.3	93.4	94.0
85	Louisiana Tech	93.9	94.1	93.7	93.9
86	Southern Miss.	93.7	92.6	93.9	93.4
87	Central Michigan	92.3	93.1	93.5	92.9
88	Maryland	93.5	92.6	92.0	92.7
89	Fresno St.	92.4	93.4	92.2	92.7
90	Marshall	92.0	91.7	92.5	92.1
91	North Carolina St.	92.3	91.4	91.6	91.8
92	Vanderbilt	92.5	90.9	90.9	91.4
93	Ball St.	91.0	90.7	91.2	91.0
94	Nevada	89.8	91.3	89.1	90.1
95	Arkansas St.	90.0	90.4	89.7	90.0
96	Liberty	89.5	90.8	89.8	90.0
97	U A B	89.1	91.0	89.9	90.0
98	Miami (Ohio)	90.3	89.2	90.4	90.0
99	Georgia Tech	90.2	88.9	90.2	89.8
100	Kent St.	89.0	89.1	89.8	89.3
101	Colorado St.	88.0	91.2	88.7	89.3
102	Georgia St.	89.3	90.1	88.4	89.3
103	Troy	89.6	89.8	88.1	89.2
104	Florida Int’l.	89.1	89.0	89.3	89.1
105	South Florida	88.8	89.3	88.9	89.0
106	Middle Tennessee	88.9	88.5	89.2	88.9
107	San Jose St.	87.9	89.7	88.1	88.6
108	Charlotte	87.9	88.3	88.6	88.3
109	Eastern Michigan	87.8	88.0	88.2	88.0
110	Arkansas	88.0	87.8	87.3	87.7
111	Northern Illinois	87.5	86.9	87.8	87.4
112	Coastal Carolina	86.9	87.8	86.3	87.0
113	Louisiana-Monroe	86.7	87.4	86.4	86.9
114	North Texas	86.3	86.0	86.2	86.2
115	Rutgers	85.1	84.6	83.6	84.4
116	U N L V	83.7	85.4	83.5	84.2
117	Toledo	84.0	83.9	84.1	84.0
118	Rice	82.4	83.7	82.4	82.8
119	East Carolina	82.4	83.6	82.3	82.8
120	New Mexico	79.7	81.7	78.6	80.0
121	Texas St.	79.2	79.9	78.9	79.3
122	South Alabama	77.0	79.5	77.0	77.8
123	Texas-San Antonio	76.1	77.9	76.5	76.8
124	New Mexico St.	75.6	77.3	75.2	76.0
125	Old Dominion	73.5	73.5	73.2	73.4
126	Connecticut	71.3	73.9	70.8	72.0
127	U T E P	68.5	71.8	68.6	69.6
128	Bowling Green	68.1	67.5	67.8	67.8
129	Akron	62.8	62.5	61.7	62.3
130	Massachusetts	56.7	58.2	55.7	56.9

 

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	111.6	111.1	112.1	111.6	6-2	9-3
Cincinnati	105.8	105.3	105.8	105.6	7-1	10-2
Temple	99.4	99.3	100.5	99.7	5-3	8-4
South Florida	88.8	89.3	88.9	89.0	2-6	4-8
East Carolina	82.4	83.6	82.3	82.8	1-7	4-8
Connecticut	71.3	73.9	70.8	72.0	0-8	2-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	110.2	110.6	111.4	110.7	7-1	11-1
SMU	104.8	104.7	105.4	105.0	6-2	10-2
Navy	100.3	102.6	101.6	101.5	7-1	9-2
Tulane	99.6	100.2	100.0	99.9	3-5	6-6
Houston	94.8	95.7	96.4	95.6	2-6	4-8
Tulsa	94.1	95.1	95.4	94.9	2-6	4-8
AAC Averages	96.9	97.6	97.6	97.4
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	138.8	137.0	140.0	138.6	8-0	12-0
Florida St.	104.8	104.6	104.9	104.8	4-4	6-6
Wake Forest	103.1	102.4	103.3	102.9	4-4	8-4
Boston College	101.9	101.4	102.0	101.8	4-4	6-6
Louisville	100.2	99.8	99.9	100.0	5-3	7-5
Syracuse	99.7	98.9	98.9	99.2	2-6	5-7
North Carolina St.	92.3	91.4	91.6	91.8	1-7	4-8
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Virginia Tech	110.5	110.5	111.2	110.7	5-3	8-4
Virginia	108.6	108.7	109.1	108.8	6-2	9-3
North Carolina	107.7	107.6	108.4	107.9	4-4	6-6
Miami (Fla.)	104.5	104.0	105.1	104.5	4-4	6-6
Pittsburgh	102.4	101.8	102.3	102.2	4-4	7-5
Duke	99.4	98.6	99.1	99.0	3-5	5-7
Georgia Tech	90.2	88.9	90.2	89.8	2-6	3-9
ACC Averages	104.6	104.0	104.7	104.4
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	122.9	122.4	122.5	122.6	8-1	11-1
Baylor	117.7	117.8	117.1	117.5	8-1	11-1
Iowa St.	112.9	113.2	112.7	112.9	5-4	7-5
Kansas St.	112.4	112.3	112.3	112.3	5-4	8-4
Texas	111.1	111.4	111.0	111.2	5-4	7-5
Oklahoma St.	110.3	110.8	109.7	110.3	5-4	8-4
T C U	107.7	109.7	107.9	108.4	3-6	5-7
Texas Tech	104.6	104.9	103.7	104.4	2-7	4-8
West Virginia	102.7	102.7	102.3	102.5	3-6	5-7
Kansas	93.7	94.7	93.8	94.1	1-8	3-9
Big 12 Averages	109.6	110.0	109.3	109.6
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	141.9	141.1	143.0	142.0	9-0	12-0
Michigan	125.6	124.3	125.9	125.3	6-3	9-3
Penn St.	121.4	120.5	121.4	121.1	7-2	10-2
Indiana	109.9	108.9	109.5	109.4	5-4	8-4
Michigan St.	107.7	106.8	106.7	107.1	4-5	6-6
Maryland	93.5	92.6	92.0	92.7	1-8	3-9
Rutgers	85.1	84.6	83.6	84.4	0-9	2-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	122.5	122.3	122.6	122.5	7-2	10-2
Iowa	118.4	116.9	118.0	117.8	6-3	9-3
Minnesota	117.2	116.8	116.5	116.8	7-2	10-2
Nebraska	106.3	106.5	105.6	106.1	3-6	5-7
Purdue	104.1	103.9	103.7	103.9	3-6	4-8
Northwestern	103.4	102.6	102.1	102.7	1-8	3-9
Illinois	102.2	102.8	101.8	102.3	4-5	6-6
Big Ten Averages	111.4	110.8	110.9	111.0
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	98.5	98.5	99.6	98.9	7-1	9-3
Western Kentucky	95.3	95.9	96.5	95.9	6-2	8-4
Marshall	92.0	91.7	92.5	92.1	6-2	8-4
Florida Int’l.	89.1	89.0	89.3	89.1	4-4	6-6
Middle Tennessee	88.9	88.5	89.2	88.9	3-5	4-8
Charlotte	87.9	88.3	88.6	88.3	5-3	7-5
Old Dominion	73.5	73.5	73.2	73.4	0-8	1-11
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Louisiana Tech	93.9	94.1	93.7	93.9	6-2	9-3
Southern Miss.	93.7	92.6	93.9	93.4	5-3	7-5
U A B	89.1	91.0	89.9	90.0	6-2	9-3
North Texas	86.3	86.0	86.2	86.2	3-5	4-8
Rice	82.4	83.7	82.4	82.8	3-5	3-9
Texas-San Antonio	76.1	77.9	76.5	76.8	3-5	4-8
U T E P	68.5	71.8	68.6	69.6	0-8	1-11
CUSA Averages	86.8	87.3	87.2	87.1
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	120.8	119.9	121.0	120.6	x	10-2
BYU	102.1	102.3	101.6	102.0	x	7-5
Army	94.1	94.3	93.4	94.0	x	5-7
Liberty	89.5	90.8	89.8	90.0	x	7-5
New Mexico St.	75.6	77.3	75.2	76.0	x	2-10
Massachusetts	56.7	58.2	55.7	56.9	x	1-11
Indep. Averages	89.8	90.5	89.4	89.9
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio	98.4	97.6	98.9	98.3	5-3	6-6
Buffalo	94.8	95.4	96.2	95.4	5-3	7-5
Miami (Ohio)	90.3	89.2	90.4	90.0	6-2	7-5
Kent St.	89.0	89.1	89.8	89.3	5-3	6-6
Bowling Green	68.1	67.5	67.8	67.8	2-6	3-9
Akron	62.8	62.5	61.7	62.3	0-8	0-12
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Western Michigan	97.6	96.6	97.1	97.1	5-3	7-5
Central Michigan	92.3	93.1	93.5	92.9	6-2	8-4
Ball St.	91.0	90.7	91.2	91.0	4-4	5-7
Eastern Michigan	87.8	88.0	88.2	88.0	3-5	6-6
Northern Illinois	87.5	86.9	87.8	87.4	4-4	5-7
Toledo	84.0	83.9	84.1	84.0	3-5	6-6
MAC Averages	87.0	86.7	87.2	87.0
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	107.9	108.2	108.0	108.0	8-0	11-1
Air Force	104.6	106.4	105.6	105.5	7-1	10-2
Wyoming	98.6	100.3	98.9	99.3	4-4	7-5
Utah St.	96.8	96.5	97.1	96.8	6-2	7-5
Colorado St.	88.0	91.2	88.7	89.3	3-5	4-8
New Mexico	79.7	81.7	78.6	80.0	0-8	2-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
San Diego St.	97.6	99.2	97.6	98.1	5-3	9-3
Hawaii	97.0	98.4	96.4	97.3	5-3	9-4
Fresno St.	92.4	93.4	92.2	92.7	2-6	4-8
Nevada	89.8	91.3	89.1	90.1	4-4	7-5
San Jose St.	87.9	89.7	88.1	88.6	2-6	5-7
U N L V	83.7	85.4	83.5	84.2	2-6	4-8
MWC Averages	93.7	95.1	93.6	94.2
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Oregon	119.5	119.4	120.2	119.7	8-1	10-2
Washington	113.1	112.8	114.0	113.3	4-5	7-5
Washington St.	110.0	109.2	110.0	109.7	3-6	6-6
California	103.7	103.5	104.2	103.8	4-5	7-5
Oregon St.	101.2	102.1	101.5	101.6	4-5	5-7
Stanford	101.6	100.6	100.8	101.0	3-6	4-8
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	126.8	125.9	127.5	126.7	8-1	11-1
U S C	111.0	111.6	111.8	111.5	7-2	8-4
Arizona St.	107.9	107.3	108.1	107.8	4-5	7-5
Colorado	98.6	98.5	98.7	98.6	3-6	5-7
U C L A	98.7	98.3	98.2	98.4	4-5	4-8
Arizona	97.0	96.8	96.8	96.9	2-7	4-8
Pac-12 Averages	107.4	107.2	107.7	107.4
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	128.4	126.7	128.7	127.9	7-1	11-1
Florida	125.9	123.5	125.8	125.0	6-2	10-2
Kentucky	112.4	111.3	111.6	111.8	3-5	7-5
Tennessee	110.7	110.4	110.1	110.4	5-3	7-5
Missouri	109.9	107.5	108.5	108.6	3-5	6-6
South Carolina	109.0	107.1	108.0	108.0	3-5	4-8
Vanderbilt	92.5	90.9	90.9	91.4	1-7	3-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
L S U	135.5	133.5	135.7	134.9	8-0	12-0
Alabama	128.8	125.7	129.1	127.9	6-2	10-2
Auburn	122.9	121.1	122.7	122.2	5-3	9-3
Texas A&M	115.1	112.5	113.3	113.7	4-4	7-5
Mississippi St.	109.8	106.6	113.3	109.9	3-5	6-6
Ole Miss	107.8	106.9	108.1	107.6	2-6	4-8
Arkansas	88.0	87.8	87.3	87.7	0-8	2-10
SEC Averages	114.1	112.2	113.8	113.4
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	109.6	109.1	109.0	109.2	7-1	11-1
Georgia Southern	99.0	99.1	98.7	99.0	5-3	7-5
Georgia St.	89.3	90.1	88.4	89.3	4-4	7-5
Troy	89.6	89.8	88.1	89.2	3-5	5-7
Coastal Carolina	86.9	87.8	86.3	87.0	2-6	5-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	102.9	103.2	102.4	102.8	7-1	10-2
Arkansas St.	90.0	90.4	89.7	90.0	5-3	7-5
Louisiana-Monroe	86.7	87.4	86.4	86.9	4-4	5-7
Texas St.	79.2	79.9	78.9	79.3	2-6	3-9
South Alabama	77.0	79.5	77.0	77.8	1-7	2-10
SBC Averages	91.0	91.6	90.5	91.1

 

Conference Power Ratings
#	League	Average
1	Southeastern	113.4
2	Big Ten	111.0
3	Big 12	109.6
4	Pac-12	107.4
5	Atlantic Coast	104.4
6	American	97.4
7	Mountain West	94.2
8	Sun Belt	91.1
9	Independents	89.9
10	Conference USA	87.1
11	Mid-American	87.0

 

 

Our Guess at Top 6
1	Ohio St.
2	LSU
3	Clemson
4	Georgia
5	Utah
6	Oklahoma

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1	Memphis
2	Boise St.
3	Appalachian St.
4	Cincinnati
5	Louisiana

 

PiRate Bowl Projections

One is the loneliest team that you’ll ever know–79 Bowl Eligible Teams For 78 Spots

 

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Buffalo	Charlotte
Frisco	AAC	At-large	SMU	[Louisiana Tech]
Cure	AAC	SBC	Navy	Georgia St.
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	UAB	Air Force
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Central Florida	Miami (O)
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Western Michigan	Arkansas St.
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Pac-12	Boise St.	Washington St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	Western Kentucky	Appalachian St.
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Cincinnati	Florida Atlantic
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC/MWC	BYU	Hawaii
Independence	ACC	SEC	North Carolina	[Florida Int’l.]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Florida St.	Michigan St.
Military	ACC	AAC	Boston College	Temple
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	Michigan
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Texas A&M
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	Washington	Iowa
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	[Liberty]	[Nevada]
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Notre Dame	Iowa St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Oklahoma	Memphis
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	Southern Miss.	[Kent St.]
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	Arizona St.	Illinois
Music City	SEC	ACC	Kentucky	Indiana
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Virginia	Alabama
Belk	ACC	SEC	Wake Forest	[Marshall]
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Virginia Tech	California
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Kansas St.	Mississippi St.
Arizona	SBC	MWC	Louisiana	San Diego St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma St.	USC
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Florida	Wisconsin
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Minnesota	Auburn
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Penn St.	Oregon
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	Georgia
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulane	[Miami (Fla.)]
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	Tennessee	Louisville
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Toledo	Utah St.
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	[Ohio]	Wyoming
Lending Tree	MAC	SBC	Central Michigan	Georgia Southern
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	LSU	Clemson
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	Ohio St.	Utah
Championship	Fiesta	Peach	Clemson	Ohio St.
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for The Conference Championship Playoff Round: January 20, 2019

Sunday, January 20, 2019

NFC Championship Game

Los Angeles Rams 14-3-0 at New Orleans Saints 14-3-0

Time: 3:05 PM Eastern Standard Time

TV: Fox

Monday Line: New Orleans by 3 1/2

Total Line: 57

PiRate Ratings 

PiRate: New Orleans by 8.1

Mean: New Orleans by 7.8

Bias: New Orleans by 8.1

Total: 55 1/2

Expected Score: New Orleans 31  Los Angeles 24

 

AFC Championship Game

New England Patriots 12-5-0 at Kansas City Chiefs 13-4-0

Time: 6:40 PM Eastern Standard Time

TV: CBS

Monday Line: Kansas City by 3

Total Line: 57

PiRate Ratings 

PiRate: Kansas City by 4.4

Mean: Kansas City by 4.4

Bias: Kansas City by 4.3

Total: 53

Expected Score:  Kansas City 28  New England 24

 

60 Seasons Ago

The NFL as we know it today owes its popularity to 60 years ago at the conclusion of the 1958 regular season.  This would be the first ever live nationally televised NFL Championship Game.  Before you wonder why other games before were not shown from coast to coast, just 10 years before only a handful of cities had television stations.  In some cities, only a test pattern was shown for most or all of the day, and people would turn their sets on to see it!  So, TV was still in its adolescence in 1958.

The upstart Baltimore Colts, led by the young and talented quarterback Johnny Unitas, fullback Alan Ameche, and two incredible pass catchers in Raymond Berry and Lenny Moore won the West Division Championship with a 9-3 record, 8-1 in the games Unitas started and played.  That one loss was to the New York Giants, a team with the greatest ever combination of offensive and defensive coordinators.  Vince Lombardi directed the Giants’ offense, and Tom Landry led the Giants’ defense.

Before the Giants could host this game in Yankee Stadium, they had to play an extra game to get to the NFL Championship Game.  The Giants finished tied with Cleveland at 9-3, and even though they had swept the Browns in the regular season, in those days if teams finished tied at the top of a division race, they played again for the division title, and the NFL Championship Game was re-scheduled for a week later.

New York stopped Cleveland for a third time that year, holding the great Jim Brown to just eight yards rushing in a 10-0 shutout.  The Giants were the favorites, and Jim Lee Howell and his coaching staff were more than prepared to contain Unitas and move the ball on offense with a conservative smash-mouth style of offense.

Like I said previously, it is because of this game that the NFL became what it is today.  Overnight, sports fans throughout the country stopped talking about the New York Yankees chances of repeating as World Series champions in 1959 (they would not), or whether the great two-year old thoroughbred Sword Dancer would break the 11-year string and win the Triple Crown (2nd in the Derby and Preakness and won the Belmont).

NFL Football was at best the number three sport in America before this game.  Major League baseball was still the number one sport and the real American Pastime.  There were still just 16 teams in the big leagues, even though two had left the number one market for the West Coast.  College football was number two, and the recent champion LSU Tigers with their famous Chinese Bandits had generated a lot of the headlines that Autumn.

If by chance you do not know how the NFL Championship Game turned out and why it “made” NFL Football into the number one spectator sport in the nation, take a look at this video from NFL Films.

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Conference Championship Games: January 21, 2018

All times given are Eastern Standard

Sunday, January 21, 2018

3:05 PM on CBS

Jacksonville Jaguars (11-6-0) at New England Patriots (14-3-0)

PiRate: New England by 7.6

Mean: New England by 8.0

Bias: New England by 7.4

Total: 44

Estimated Realistic Score: New England 27  Jacksonville 17 

 

6:40 PM on Fox

Minnesota Vikings (14-3-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (14-3-0)

PiRate: Minnesota by 2.0

Mean: Minnesota by 1.2

Bias:  Minnesota by 2.1

Total: 37

Estimated Realistic Score: Minnesota 20  Philadelphia 17

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for December 1-2 & 9, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads (+Army-Navy for next week)

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
USC (n)	Stanford	-0.7	0.2	-0.6
Central Florida	Memphis	3.5	5.5	4.0
Florida St.	UL-Monroe	38.0	36.1	37.4
Toledo (n)	Akron	16.0	13.5	17.2
Florida Atlantic	North Texas	14.3	14.8	15.0
Oklahoma (n)	TCU	6.5	6.9	7.2
Coastal Carolina	Georgia Southern	-6.2	-5.9	-5.0
Georgia St.	Idaho	7.5	6.3	6.5
Appy St.	UL-Lafayette	15.7	13.2	15.6
Arkansas St.	Troy	-0.8	0.0	0.5
Georgia (n)	Auburn	-3.1	-1.1	-3.1
New Mexico St.	South Alabama	7.9	4.7	7.8
Boise St.	Fresno St.	10.6	10.5	10.0
Miami (Fla.) (n)	Clemson	-7.9	-6.4	-8.6
Wisconsin (n)	Ohio St.	-6.3	-6.7	-7.5
Army (n)	Navy	-0.4	-1.0	-0.3

(n) means neutral site game

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Retrodictive Rankings (Based on past results and not predictive of the future)

PiRate Retrodictive
#	Team
1	Clemson
2	Wisconsin
3	Alabama
4	Oklahoma
5	Georgia
6	Auburn
7	Ohio St.
8	Central Florida
9	Penn St.
10	Miami (Fla)
11	Washington
12	USC
13	Notre Dame
14	TCU
15	Virginia Tech
16	Stanford
17	Oklahoma St.
18	Michigan St.
19	Memphis
20	Michigan
21	Washington St.
22	Northwestern
23	LSU
24	North Carolina St.
25	Iowa
26	Louisville
27	Mississippi St.
28	Boston College
29	South Florida
30	Iowa St.
31	Boise St.
32	Wake Forest
33	Toledo
34	South Carolina
35	San Diego St.
36	Oregon
37	Florida Atlantic
38	Florida St.
39	Arizona St.
40	Texas A&M
41	Texas
42	West Virginia
43	Purdue
44	Georgia Tech
45	Kansas St.
46	Missouri
47	Arizona
48	Fresno St.
49	UCLA
50	Navy
51	Troy
52	Houston
53	Texas Tech
54	Utah
55	Army
56	Kentucky
57	Duke
58	SMU
59	Northern Illinois
60	Indiana
61	Virginia
62	North Texas
63	California
64	Ole Miss
65	Ohio
66	Pittsburgh
67	Central Michigan
68	Minnesota
69	Florida
70	Syracuse
71	Maryland
72	Wyoming
73	Marshall
74	Colorado
75	Colorado St.
76	Temple
77	Nebraska
78	Western Michigan
79	Tulane
80	Arkansas St.
81	Akron
82	Appalachian St.
83	Southern Miss.
84	Florida Int’l.
85	Vanderbilt
86	Buffalo
87	Arkansas
88	UAB
89	Tennessee
90	Utah St.
91	North Carolina
92	Eastern Michigan
93	Rutgers
94	Air Force
95	Louisiana Tech
96	Middle Tennessee
97	UTSA
98	Miami (O)
99	Georgia St.
100	Cincinnati
101	Western Kentucky
102	Tulsa
103	UNLV
104	Baylor
105	Massachusetts
106	East Carolina
107	New Mexico St.
108	BYU
109	Nevada
110	Connecticut
111	UL-Monroe
112	Illinois
113	Old Dominion
114	UL-Lafayette
115	Bowling Green
116	South Alabama
117	New Mexico
118	Idaho
119	Oregon St.
120	Hawaii
121	Georgia Southern
122	Kansas
123	Kent St.
124	Coastal Carolina
125	Ball St.
126	Rice
127	Charlotte
128	Texas St.
129	San Jose St.
130	UTEP

Predictive Ratings (Forward looking for the next game on the schedule)

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	135.6	132.3	134.3	134.1
2	Ohio St.	132.0	129.9	132.3	131.4
3	Auburn	131.3	128.9	131.7	130.6
4	Clemson	130.0	127.2	129.7	129.0
5	Penn St.	129.0	127.9	129.3	128.7
6	Georgia	128.2	127.8	128.6	128.2
7	Oklahoma	126.3	125.0	127.3	126.2
8	Washington	126.6	124.4	126.6	125.9
9	Wisconsin	125.7	123.2	124.8	124.6
10	Miami	122.1	120.8	121.1	121.3
11	Oklahoma St.	120.6	119.9	121.0	120.5
12	Stanford	120.9	119.2	120.4	120.2
13	U S C	120.2	119.4	119.8	119.8
14	T C U	119.8	118.1	120.1	119.3
15	L S U	119.1	116.7	119.6	118.5
16	Virginia Tech	118.7	118.1	118.5	118.4
17	Louisville	117.9	116.9	117.8	117.5
18	Florida St.	117.1	116.1	115.7	116.3
19	Notre Dame	116.0	115.0	116.0	115.6
20	N. Carolina St.	115.9	115.1	115.7	115.6
21	Michigan	115.8	115.5	115.1	115.5
22	Northwestern	115.6	114.4	115.7	115.2
23	Central Florida	113.8	115.0	115.1	114.6
24	Iowa	114.1	114.4	113.3	114.0
25	Memphis	113.3	112.5	114.1	113.3
26	Iowa State	112.5	112.6	113.5	112.9
27	Boston College	112.8	112.4	112.9	112.7
28	Washington St.	113.3	111.2	112.8	112.4
29	Mississippi St.	112.4	112.4	112.0	112.3
30	Texas	111.8	112.1	112.4	112.1
31	Kansas St.	111.8	111.8	111.8	111.8
32	Wake Forest	112.2	110.5	112.3	111.7
33	Oregon	112.3	110.2	111.7	111.4
34	Duke	110.4	109.4	109.5	109.8
35	Georgia Tech	110.2	108.4	108.7	109.1
36	South Florida	109.0	108.2	109.3	108.8
37	Missouri	109.6	107.9	108.9	108.8
38	West Virginia	108.4	109.0	108.5	108.6
39	Pittsburgh	108.8	108.1	108.7	108.5
40	Utah	108.2	108.3	108.3	108.3
41	Michigan St.	107.5	108.1	108.6	108.1
42	Arizona St.	107.6	106.4	107.3	107.1
43	S. Carolina	107.5	106.8	106.5	106.9
44	Texas A&M	107.8	105.9	106.9	106.9
45	Boise St.	106.1	104.8	106.3	105.7
46	Indiana	105.5	105.6	105.9	105.7
47	Ole Miss	106.3	105.0	105.4	105.6
48	Purdue	105.4	105.3	105.9	105.5
49	Kentucky	106.2	105.5	104.8	105.5
50	Arizona	106.2	105.0	105.1	105.4
51	Florida	105.7	105.4	105.1	105.4
52	Texas Tech	105.2	104.9	104.8	105.0
53	Toledo	103.6	103.4	105.6	104.2
54	California	105.3	103.2	103.8	104.1
55	U C L A	104.1	103.3	103.5	103.6
56	Colorado	104.5	103.4	102.4	103.4
57	Virginia	103.1	102.1	103.4	102.9
58	San Diego St.	102.4	102.3	103.5	102.7
59	Houston	102.4	102.1	102.5	102.3
60	N. Carolina	102.9	102.0	102.0	102.3
61	Syracuse	102.0	100.8	101.1	101.3
62	Colo. State	101.3	100.3	101.1	100.9
63	Navy	100.2	100.8	100.4	100.4
64	Minnesota	100.3	101.2	99.2	100.2
65	Florida Atlantic	99.0	100.7	100.7	100.1
66	Vanderbilt	100.8	99.8	99.7	100.1
67	Army	99.8	99.8	100.1	99.9
68	Troy	99.1	99.2	98.9	99.1
69	Arkansas	99.4	98.5	99.2	99.1
70	Baylor	98.1	99.4	98.2	98.6
71	Fresno St.	98.5	97.3	99.3	98.4
72	SMU	97.5	98.0	97.8	97.8
73	Ohio U	96.3	97.9	97.1	97.1
74	Temple	96.3	96.8	96.7	96.6
75	Tennessee	97.3	95.9	95.3	96.2
76	Northern Illinois	95.7	95.6	96.7	96.0
77	Arkansas St.	95.2	96.3	96.4	96.0
78	Western Michigan	95.8	95.2	96.5	95.8
79	Central Michigan	95.1	95.4	96.0	95.5
80	Nebraska	94.9	95.4	94.4	94.9
81	Wyoming	95.5	94.6	94.6	94.9
82	Eastern Michigan	94.7	94.8	95.1	94.9
83	Maryland	94.5	95.8	93.9	94.7
84	Utah St.	95.0	94.3	94.7	94.7
85	Appalachian St.	94.8	93.6	94.8	94.4
86	Tulane	94.2	94.4	94.6	94.4
87	Tulsa	93.1	92.8	92.7	92.9
88	Air Force	92.2	92.5	92.2	92.3
89	Marshall	90.9	92.3	92.4	91.9
90	Rutgers	91.1	91.1	90.7	91.0
91	Massachusetts	90.8	90.0	91.1	90.6
92	Middle Tennessee	89.2	90.3	90.3	89.9
93	BYU	90.0	89.9	89.9	89.9
94	Nevada	88.9	90.5	90.0	89.8
95	Miami (O)	88.7	90.7	89.9	89.8
96	Oregon St.	90.0	89.9	88.4	89.4
97	U T S A	87.6	90.0	88.4	88.6
98	Buffalo	87.3	89.3	89.3	88.6
99	Akron	87.7	89.8	88.4	88.6
100	N. Texas	87.7	88.9	88.6	88.4
101	Louisiana Tech	87.3	88.9	88.1	88.1
102	Florida Int’l.	87.6	88.1	88.4	88.1
103	Southern Miss.	87.5	88.5	88.1	88.0
104	Illinois	87.9	89.0	86.8	87.9
105	W. Kentucky	87.5	87.9	88.0	87.8
106	U N L V	86.2	87.7	86.3	86.8
107	N. Mexico St.	85.9	84.7	86.0	85.5
108	Connecticut	84.5	86.3	84.8	85.2
109	Cincinnati	83.9	85.7	84.6	84.7
110	New Mexico	84.4	84.4	84.9	84.6
111	East Carolina	83.2	84.5	83.3	83.7
112	Georgia St.	83.1	82.9	82.9	83.0
113	UL-Lafayette	82.2	83.4	82.1	82.6
114	Kansas	81.8	85.1	80.5	82.5
115	UAB	81.6	81.6	83.5	82.2
116	UL-Monroe	82.1	83.0	81.3	82.1
117	Bowling Green	81.5	82.6	81.8	82.0
118	Hawaii	81.8	82.9	81.1	81.9
119	S. Alabama	81.0	83.0	81.2	81.7
120	Old Dominion	80.3	82.7	80.5	81.2
121	Georgia Southern	80.9	82.0	80.4	81.1
122	Idaho	79.1	80.2	79.9	79.7
123	Kent St.	73.9	75.4	74.2	74.5
124	Coastal Carolina	72.7	74.1	73.4	73.4
125	Rice	72.6	74.1	73.0	73.2
126	San Jose St.	72.3	72.4	71.6	72.1
127	Texas St.	70.3	72.5	69.4	70.7
128	Charlotte	69.5	71.8	69.7	70.3
129	U T E P	67.9	70.7	67.9	68.9
130	Ball St.	65.7	67.7	66.4	66.6

PiRate Rating by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	AAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Central Florida	8-0	11-0	113.8	115.0	115.1	114.6
South Florida	6-2	9-2	109.0	108.2	109.3	108.8
Temple	4-4	6-6	96.3	96.8	96.7	96.6
Connecticut	2-6	3-9	84.5	86.3	84.8	85.2
Cincinnati	2-6	4-8	83.9	85.7	84.6	84.7
East Carolina	2-6	3-9	83.2	84.5	83.3	83.7
West Division
Team	AAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Memphis	7-1	10-1	113.3	112.5	114.1	113.3
Houston	5-3	7-4	102.4	102.1	102.5	102.3
Navy	4-4	6-5	100.2	100.8	100.4	100.4
SMU	4-4	7-5	97.5	98.0	97.8	97.8
Tulane	3-5	5-7	94.2	94.4	94.6	94.4
Tulsa	1-7	2-10	93.1	92.8	92.7	92.9
AAC Averages			97.6	98.1	98.0	97.9
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	ACC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	7-1	11-1	130.0	127.2	129.7	129.0
Louisville	4-4	8-4	117.9	116.9	117.8	117.5
Florida St.	3-5	5-6	117.1	116.1	115.7	116.3
N. Carolina St.	6-2	8-4	115.9	115.1	115.7	115.6
Boston College	4-4	7-5	112.8	112.4	112.9	112.7
Wake Forest	4-4	7-5	112.2	110.5	112.3	111.7
Syracuse	2-6	4-8	102.0	100.8	101.1	101.3
Coastal Division
Team	ACC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami	7-1	10-1	122.1	120.8	121.1	121.3
Virginia Tech	5-3	9-3	118.7	118.1	118.5	118.4
Duke	3-5	6-6	110.4	109.4	109.5	109.8
Georgia Tech	4-4	5-6	110.2	108.4	108.7	109.1
Pittsburgh	3-5	5-7	108.8	108.1	108.7	108.5
Virginia	3-5	6-6	103.1	102.1	103.4	102.9
N. Carolina	1-7	3-9	102.9	102.0	102.0	102.3
ACC Averages			113.2	112.0	112.6	112.6
Big 12 Conference
Team	B12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	8-1	11-1	126.3	125.0	127.3	126.2
Oklahoma St.	6-3	9-3	120.6	119.9	121.0	120.5
T C U	7-2	10-2	119.8	118.1	120.1	119.3
Iowa State	5-4	7-5	112.5	112.6	113.5	112.9
Texas	5-4	6-6	111.8	112.1	112.4	112.1
Kansas St.	5-4	7-5	111.8	111.8	111.8	111.8
West Virginia	5-4	7-5	108.4	109.0	108.5	108.6
Texas Tech	3-6	6-6	105.2	104.9	104.8	105.0
Baylor	1-8	1-11	98.1	99.4	98.2	98.6
Kansas	0-9	1-11	81.8	85.1	80.5	82.5
Big 12 Averages			109.6	109.8	109.8	109.8
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	BTen	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	8-1	10-2	132.0	129.9	132.3	131.4
Penn St.	7-2	10-2	129.0	127.9	129.3	128.7
Michigan	5-4	8-4	115.8	115.5	115.1	115.5
Michigan St.	7-2	9-3	107.5	108.1	108.6	108.1
Indiana	2-7	5-7	105.5	105.6	105.9	105.7
Maryland	2-7	4-8	94.5	95.8	93.9	94.7
Rutgers	3-6	4-8	91.1	91.1	90.7	91.0
West Division
Team	BTen	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	9-0	12-0	125.7	123.2	124.8	124.6
Northwestern	7-2	9-3	115.6	114.4	115.7	115.2
Iowa	4-5	7-5	114.1	114.4	113.3	114.0
Purdue	4-5	6-6	105.4	105.3	105.9	105.5
Minnesota	2-7	5-7	100.3	101.2	99.2	100.2
Nebraska	3-6	4-8	94.9	95.4	94.4	94.9
Illinois	0-9	2-10	87.9	89.0	86.8	87.9
Big Ten Averages			108.5	108.3	108.3	108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Florida Atlantic	8-0	9-3	99.0	100.7	100.7	100.1
Marshall	4-4	7-5	90.9	92.3	92.4	91.9
Middle Tennessee	4-4	6-6	89.2	90.3	90.3	89.9
Florida Int’l.	5-3	7-4	87.6	88.1	88.4	88.1
W. Kentucky	4-4	6-6	87.5	87.9	88.0	87.8
Old Dominion	3-5	5-7	80.3	82.7	80.5	81.2
Charlotte	1-7	1-11	69.5	71.8	69.7	70.3
West Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U T S A	3-5	6-5	87.6	90.0	88.4	88.6
N. Texas	7-1	9-3	87.7	88.9	88.6	88.4
Louisiana Tech	4-4	6-6	87.3	88.9	88.1	88.1
Southern Miss.	6-2	8-4	87.5	88.5	88.1	88.0
UAB	6-2	8-4	81.6	81.6	83.5	82.2
Rice	1-7	1-11	72.6	74.1	73.0	73.2
U T E P	0-8	0-12	67.9	70.7	67.9	68.9
CUSA Averages			84.0	85.5	84.8	84.8
FBS Independents
Team		Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame		9-3	116.0	115.0	116.0	115.6
Army		8-3	99.8	99.8	100.1	99.9
Massachusetts		4-7	90.8	90.0	91.1	90.6
BYU		4-9	90.0	89.9	89.9	89.9
Indep. Averages			99.1	98.7	99.3	99.0
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	MAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio U	5-3	8-4	96.3	97.9	97.1	97.1
Miami (O)	4-4	5-7	88.7	90.7	89.9	89.8
Akron	6-2	7-5	87.7	89.8	88.4	88.6
Buffalo	4-4	6-6	87.3	89.3	89.3	88.6
Bowling Green	2-6	2-10	81.5	82.6	81.8	82.0
Kent St.	1-7	2-10	73.9	75.4	74.2	74.5
West Division
Team	MAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Toledo	7-1	10-2	103.6	103.4	105.6	104.2
Northern Illinois	6-2	8-4	95.7	95.6	96.7	96.0
Western Michigan	4-4	6-6	95.8	95.2	96.5	95.8
Central Michigan	6-2	8-4	95.1	95.4	96.0	95.5
Eastern Michigan	3-5	5-7	94.7	94.8	95.1	94.9
Ball St.	0-8	2-10	65.7	67.7	66.4	66.6
MAC Averages			88.8	89.8	89.7	89.5
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	MWC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	7-1	9-3	106.1	104.8	106.3	105.7
Colo. State	5-3	7-5	101.3	100.3	101.1	100.9
Wyoming	5-3	7-5	95.5	94.6	94.6	94.9
Utah St.	4-4	6-6	95.0	94.3	94.7	94.7
Air Force	4-4	5-7	92.2	92.5	92.2	92.3
New Mexico	1-7	3-9	84.4	84.4	84.9	84.6
West Division
Team	MWC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	6-2	10-2	102.4	102.3	103.5	102.7
Fresno St.	7-1	9-3	98.5	97.3	99.3	98.4
Nevada	3-5	3-9	88.9	90.5	90.0	89.8
U N L V	4-4	5-7	86.2	87.7	86.3	86.8
Hawaii	1-8	3-9	81.8	82.9	81.1	81.9
San Jose St.	1-7	2-11	72.3	72.4	71.6	72.1
MWC Averages			92.0	92.0	92.1	92.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	P12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Washington	7-2	10-2	126.6	124.4	126.6	125.9
Stanford	7-2	9-3	120.9	119.2	120.4	120.2
Washington St.	6-3	9-3	113.3	111.2	112.8	112.4
Oregon	4-5	7-5	112.3	110.2	111.7	111.4
California	2-7	5-7	105.3	103.2	103.8	104.1
Oregon St.	0-9	1-11	90.0	89.9	88.4	89.4
South Division
Team	P12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U S C	8-1	10-2	120.2	119.4	119.8	119.8
Utah	3-6	6-6	108.2	108.3	108.3	108.3
Arizona St.	6-3	7-5	107.6	106.4	107.3	107.1
Arizona	5-4	7-5	106.2	105.0	105.1	105.4
U C L A	4-5	6-6	104.1	103.3	103.5	103.6
Colorado	2-7	5-7	104.5	103.4	102.4	103.4
Pac-12 Averages			109.9	108.6	109.2	109.3
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	SEC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	7-1	11-1	128.2	127.8	128.6	128.2
Missouri	4-4	7-5	109.6	107.9	108.9	108.8
S. Carolina	5-3	8-4	107.5	106.8	106.5	106.9
Kentucky	4-4	7-5	106.2	105.5	104.8	105.5
Florida	3-5	4-7	105.7	105.4	105.1	105.4
Vanderbilt	1-7	5-7	100.8	99.8	99.7	100.1
Tennessee	0-8	4-8	97.3	95.9	95.3	96.2
West Division
Team	SEC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	7-1	11-1	135.6	132.3	134.3	134.1
Auburn	7-1	10-2	131.3	128.9	131.7	130.6
L S U	6-2	9-3	119.1	116.7	119.6	118.5
Mississippi St.	4-4	8-4	112.4	112.4	112.0	112.3
Texas A&M	4-4	7-5	107.8	105.9	106.9	106.9
Ole Miss	3-5	6-6	106.3	105.0	105.4	105.6
Arkansas	1-7	4-8	99.4	98.5	99.2	99.1
SEC Averages			111.9	110.6	111.3	111.3
Sunbelt Conference
Team	SBC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Troy	6-1	9-2	99.1	99.2	98.9	99.1
Arkansas St.	6-1	7-3	95.2	96.3	96.4	96.0
Appalachian St.	6-1	7-4	94.8	93.6	94.8	94.4
N. Mexico St.	3-4	5-6	85.9	84.7	86.0	85.5
Georgia St.	5-2	6-4	83.1	82.9	82.9	83.0
UL-Lafayette	4-3	5-6	82.2	83.4	82.1	82.6
UL-Monroe	4-4	4-7	82.1	83.0	81.3	82.1
S. Alabama	3-4	4-7	81.0	83.0	81.2	81.7
Georgia Southern	2-5	2-9	80.9	82.0	80.4	81.1
Idaho	2-5	3-8	79.1	80.2	79.9	79.7
Coastal Carolina	1-6	2-9	72.7	74.1	73.4	73.4
Texas St.	1-7	2-10	70.3	72.5	69.4	70.7
Sun Belt Averages			83.9	84.6	83.9	84.1

Pirate Conference Ratings

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	ACC	113.2	112.0	112.6	112.6
2	SEC	111.9	110.6	111.3	111.3
3	BIG 12	109.6	109.8	109.8	109.8
4	PAC-12	109.9	108.6	109.2	109.3
5	BIG TEN	108.5	108.3	108.3	108.4
6	INDEP.	99.1	98.7	99.3	99.0
7	AAC	97.6	98.1	98.0	97.9
8	MWC	92.0	92.0	92.1	92.1
9	MAC	88.8	89.8	89.7	89.5
10	CUSA	84.0	85.5	84.8	84.8
11	Sun Belt	83.9	84.6	83.9	84.1

For the second year in a row, the ACC finishes the regular season ranked number one.

Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Louisiana Tech	Arkansas St.
Cure	AAC	SBC	SMU	Appalachian St.
Las Vegas	MWC 1	PAC-12 5	Boise St.	Arizona St.
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	North Texas	Colorado St.
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Central Mich.	Georgia St.
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	South Florida	Florida Atlantic
Frisco	AAC	MAC	Houston	Northern Illinois
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Temple	Florida Int’l.
Bahamas	CUSA 1	MAC	UAB	Ohio U
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Akron	Wyoming
Birmingham	AAC	SEC 8-9	[Duke]	[Iowa St.]
Armed Forces	Army	BIG TEN 8	ARMY	[Marshall]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Toledo	Troy
Hawaii	AAC	MWC	Central Florida	San Diego St.
Heart of Dallas	BIG 12 6	CUSA	Texas Tech	Southern Miss.
Quick Lane	ACC 7-9	BIG TEN 7	Boston College	[Western Mich.]
Cactus	BIG 12 5	PAC-12 6	Kansas St.	Utah
Independence	ACC 7-9	SEC 8-9	Florida St.	[UTSA]
Pinstripe	ACC 3-6	BIG TEN 5	North Carolina St.	Purdue
Foster Farms	BIG TEN 6	PAC-12 8	[Utah St.]	Oregon
Texas	BIG 12 3	SEC 2-7	Texas	Missouri
Military	AAC 7-9	ACC 7-9	Navy	Virginia
Camping World	ACC 2	BIG 12 2	Notre Dame	Oklahoma St.
Holiday	BIG TEN 3	PAC-12 2	Northwestern	Stanford
Alamo	BIG 12 1	PAC-12 1	TCU	Washington St.
Belk	ACC 3-6	SEC 2-7	Virginia Tech	Kentucky
Sun	ACC 3-6	Pac-12	Wake Forest	Arizona
Music City	ACC 3-6/B10 4	SEC 2-7	Iowa	[UCLA]
Arizona	MWC	SBC	Fresno St.	New Mexico St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Washington	Ohio St.
Taxslayer	ACC 3-6/B10 4	SEC 2-7	Louisville	South Carolina
Liberty	BIG 12 4	SEC 2-7	West Va.	Texas A&M
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	USC	Penn St.
Orange	ACC 1	SEC 1/B10 1	Miami (Fla.)	Alabama
Outback	BIG TEN 2	SEC 2-7	Michigan	LSU
Peach	At-large	At-large	Auburn	Memphis
Citrus	B10 1/ACC 2	SEC 1	Michigan St.	Mississippi St.
Rose	Playoff	Semi-final	Wisconsin	Oklahoma
Sugar	Playoff	Semi-final	Clemson	Georgia
Nat’l Champ.	Semifinal	Winners	Oklahoma	Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

It’s Championship Week, and there are a flood of interesting games, but perhaps the more interesting aspect of the college game on this last Sunday of November is the coaching carousel.

UCLA is quite happy today with their new hire.  Texas A&M and Nebraska fans believe their status is about to improve with hires that can be considered knock out of the park hires.  Arkansas thinks it can find somebody that will move the needle.  Arizona State might look to the SEC to fill its vacancy, and then there is Tennessee.

The Vols aimed high for a former Tampa Bay Buc coach, dangling possibly $10 million, but instead, the fans believe they have lured in a carp–the wrong ex-Tampa Bay coach.

If rumors are true that the Volunteers have hired Greg Schiano as their next head coach, he of the .500 record at Rutgers when the State U of New Jersey was still a Big East school, and he of many negative intangibles, the Vol Navy may decide to scuttle the boats.

With Dan Mullen, Chris Petersen, Mike Leach, Dana Holgersen, Mike Gundy, Bobby Petrino, Matt Campbell, Jeff Brohm, and even Jim Bob Cooter available (among others), settling for a much maligned ex-head coach that comes with more baggage than Thurston Howell III and Lovie Howell brought with them to that three-hour tour.  The results in Knoxville are likely to be no better than the sailing of the S.S. Minnow.

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Conference Championship Preview

Note: We will have computer simulations for the two Conference Championship games on Friday.

This Week’s Games
Week Number:	Conference Championships
Date of Games:	24-Jan
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Denver	New England	-0.1	0.1	1.2
Carolina	Arizona	2.5	3.3	3.8

College Football Preview–December 4-5, 2015

And Down The Stretch They Come
Oklahoma is in the playoffs, short of some major questionable change by the Selection Committee.

Alabama needs to beat a Florida team that is at this point the third best team in the SEC East. The Tide would have to turn the ball over about four times in their own territory before the SEC Championship Game could get close. Should Florida pull the monumental upset, then Alabama is out and Ohio State is in.

The Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game should decide another playoff spot. If Clemson wins, the Tigers should be the #1 seed, while a Tar Heel victory should elevate UNC into the #4 seed spot. There is a chance that Ohio State could steal this spot, but only if Michigan State wins the Big Ten Championship by a lot of points.

Which brings us to the final playoff spot. Either Michigan State or Iowa will get in. If Iowa loses, there is almost no chance the Hawkeyes could still be in the picture, unless Alabama and Clemson both lose, and Iowa loses in overtime or by 1 or 2 points.

As for the rest of the New Year’s 6 Bowls, Notre Dame is a near lock at 10-2. A 10-3 Florida team should still get in, as the SEC is always going to have a team in addition to the Playoffs. If Ohio State does not get in the playoffs via the scenarios above, the Buckeyes will be in the NY6 action along with the loser of the Big Ten Championship Game. Ditto for the ACC Championship loser. The Pac-12 champion will be in the Rose Bowl, and one of the 10-2 Big 12 teams should earn a bid. The final spot will go to the winner of the AAC Championship Game, either Houston or Temple.

The FCS began its 24-team playoff this past weekend, and we have included the scores from the opening round games, as well as this week’s second round games and kickoff times. All games will be available on ESPN3.

What if the FBS did something crazy and extended their playoffs to 24 teams? We will talk about that Tomorrow.

For now, enjoy Championship Week. Next week, there will be just one college game–Army and Navy.

PiRate Retrodictive
#	Team
1	Alabama
2	Oklahoma
3	Clemson
4	Ohio St.
5	Michigan St.
6	Iowa
7	Stanford
8	Notre Dame
9	Florida St.
10	TCU
11	North Carolina
12	Ole Miss
13	Baylor
14	Oklahoma St.
15	Houston
16	LSU
17	Oregon
18	USC
19	Florida
20	Northwestern
21	Utah
22	Michigan
23	Tennessee
24	Wisconsin
25	Georgia
26	Temple
27	Navy
28	Arkansas
29	Memphis
30	West Virginia
31	Mississippi St.
32	UCLA
33	Toledo
34	Western Kentucky
35	Bowling Green
36	Texas A&M
37	BYU
38	California
39	Pittsburgh
40	Miami (Fla.)
41	Washington
42	South Florida
43	Washington St.
44	Texas Tech
45	Louisville
46	Penn St.
47	Appalachian St.
48	San Diego St.
49	Georgia Southern
50	Auburn
51	Arizona St.
52	North Carolina St.
53	Boise St.
54	Virginia Tech
55	Western Michigan
56	Cincinnati
57	Nebraska
58	Southern Miss.
59	Indiana
60	Kansas St.
61	Marshall
62	Duke
63	Northern Illinois
64	Air Force
65	Arkansas St.
66	Minnesota
67	Louisiana Tech
68	Texas
69	Illinois
70	Arizona
71	Central Michigan
72	Ohio
73	Georgia Tech
74	Utah St.
75	Connecticut
76	Missouri
77	East Carolina
78	Middle Tennessee
79	Virginia
80	Iowa St.
81	South Carolina
82	Vanderbilt
83	Akron
84	Tulsa
85	Maryland
86	Colorado St.
87	Syracuse
88	Kentucky
89	New Mexico
90	Colorado
91	San Jose St.
92	Rutgers
93	Boston College
94	Wake Forest
95	Nevada
96	Georgia St.
97	Buffalo
98	Oregon St.
99	Purdue
100	South Alabama
101	Florida Int’l.
102	Troy
103	Louisiana-Lafayette
104	Ball St.
105	Florida Atlantic
106	Rice
107	SMU
108	Idaho
109	Old Dominion
110	Massachusetts
111	UNLV
112	UTEP
113	Fresno St.
114	Tulane
115	Kent St.
116	New Mexico St.
117	Texas St.
118	UTSA
119	Miami (O)
120	Kansas
121	Hawaii
122	Wyoming
123	Army
124	North Texas
125	Louisiana-Monroe
126	Charlotte
127	Eastern Michigan
128	Central Florida

 

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	131.7	129.4	131.8	131.0
2	Oklahoma	130.2	126.5	130.9	129.2
3	Ohio St.	129.0	124.6	129.8	127.8
4	Baylor	126.7	122.8	126.9	125.5
5	Ole Miss	124.7	120.2	123.9	122.9
6	Stanford	123.2	120.3	123.0	122.2
7	North Carolina	121.8	122.4	122.2	122.1
8	Clemson	121.1	121.6	120.5	121.1
9	TCU	123.1	115.6	124.0	120.9
10	Notre Dame	121.2	118.9	120.9	120.3
11	Arkansas	121.3	116.4	120.8	119.5
12	USC	121.0	116.4	120.6	119.3
13	Michigan St.	119.9	117.3	120.0	119.1
14	Tennessee	120.1	116.2	120.2	118.8
15	LSU	119.8	116.4	119.4	118.5
16	UCLA	120.5	114.8	118.9	118.1
17	Florida St.	117.2	118.4	117.1	117.6
18	Oregon	118.6	113.3	118.8	116.9
19	Utah	118.1	112.3	116.3	115.6
20	Mississippi St.	116.5	113.1	116.5	115.4
21	Washington	115.9	112.6	115.8	114.8
22	Michigan	115.8	113.0	115.3	114.7
23	Texas A&M	116.4	112.9	114.4	114.6
24	Georgia	116.1	111.2	115.4	114.2
25	Oklahoma St.	115.1	111.9	114.7	113.9
26	West Virginia	115.6	110.5	115.4	113.8
27	Florida	114.3	111.1	114.0	113.1
28	California	115.0	109.7	114.1	112.9
29	Arizona St.	114.4	109.5	114.0	112.6
30	Iowa	111.5	113.2	112.2	112.3
31	Auburn	113.6	110.4	112.3	112.1
32	Houston	109.3	114.8	111.3	111.8
33	Wisconsin	111.6	111.2	110.8	111.2
34	Virginia Tech	110.7	110.4	110.8	110.6
35	Bowling Green	107.9	112.7	111.0	110.5
36	Western Kentucky	109.4	109.8	110.9	110.0
37	North Carolina St.	109.4	110.4	107.9	109.2
38	Temple	107.4	110.3	109.1	108.9
39	BYU	108.1	108.3	109.3	108.6
40	Louisville	108.0	109.5	107.9	108.5
41	Memphis	107.7	108.8	108.0	108.2
42	San Diego St.	106.0	110.5	107.9	108.1
43	Pittsburgh	107.5	108.1	107.8	107.8
44	Nebraska	108.5	106.9	107.8	107.7
45	Georgia Tech	109.1	106.5	107.5	107.7
46	Washington St.	108.5	105.1	109.3	107.6
47	Navy	105.9	109.9	107.0	107.6
48	Miami	106.1	106.7	107.2	106.7
49	Northwestern	106.4	106.6	106.6	106.5
50	Boise St.	107.3	105.1	107.2	106.5
51	South Carolina	107.3	104.2	106.3	105.9
52	Arizona	107.9	102.4	106.8	105.7
53	Texas Tech	108.1	100.4	108.3	105.6
54	Missouri	106.9	103.4	105.6	105.3
55	Toledo	103.7	105.0	104.9	104.5
56	South Florida	102.1	107.8	103.4	104.4
57	Minnesota	105.1	103.6	104.2	104.3
58	Western Michigan	102.6	103.8	104.0	103.5
59	Penn St.	103.8	103.3	103.0	103.4
60	Colorado	105.3	100.5	103.7	103.2
61	Texas	104.7	100.4	104.1	103.1
62	Cincinnati	102.0	103.9	103.3	103.1
63	Duke	103.0	103.0	102.8	102.9
64	Illinois	104.1	101.9	102.8	102.9
65	Virginia	102.7	101.8	103.1	102.5
66	Georgia Southern	100.7	103.5	102.6	102.3
67	Kansas St.	105.3	96.2	104.6	102.0
68	Indiana	101.0	101.3	101.3	101.2
69	Boston College	100.3	102.6	98.8	100.6
70	Southern Mississippi	98.9	101.5	99.9	100.1
71	Kentucky	101.8	98.4	100.1	100.1
72	Air Force	98.4	101.4	98.1	99.3
73	Iowa St.	100.4	96.3	100.1	98.9
74	Appalachian St.	97.0	100.2	98.9	98.7
75	Louisiana Tech	98.3	98.6	99.1	98.7
76	Vanderbilt	100.2	96.0	99.4	98.5
77	Northern Illinois	96.6	100.4	97.5	98.2
78	Marshall	97.9	98.5	97.6	98.0
79	Wake Forest	96.5	99.3	96.1	97.3
80	Utah St.	97.6	97.8	96.0	97.1
81	Middle Tennessee	96.6	96.2	96.7	96.5
82	East Carolina	94.7	98.5	95.6	96.3
83	Syracuse	95.1	97.9	95.0	96.0
84	Arkansas St.	94.2	95.7	96.3	95.4
85	Purdue	95.1	94.1	93.4	94.2
86	Maryland	94.5	93.4	94.4	94.1
87	Connecticut	91.0	95.5	92.3	92.9
88	San Jose St.	92.2	94.2	92.2	92.9
89	Colorado St.	92.8	93.3	92.3	92.8
90	New Mexico	92.3	93.4	91.8	92.5
91	Central Michigan	90.3	94.2	91.7	92.1
92	Rutgers	93.5	90.8	91.2	91.8
93	Tulsa	89.8	93.9	90.9	91.5
94	Nevada	89.7	93.6	90.0	91.1
95	Ohio	88.8	93.2	90.9	91.0
96	Akron	86.1	92.9	88.4	89.1
97	Oregon St.	88.7	85.3	86.6	86.9
98	Florida Atlantic	84.1	87.5	84.9	85.5
99	Florida International	83.8	86.2	83.9	84.6
100	SMU	83.3	86.9	82.9	84.4
101	Massachusetts	82.6	86.1	83.4	84.0
102	Buffalo	81.1	86.3	81.7	83.0
103	Tulane	82.2	84.7	80.9	82.6
104	UNLV	81.9	83.6	81.9	82.5
105	Georgia St.	81.2	82.9	82.6	82.2
106	Troy	81.2	82.5	81.8	81.8
107	Fresno St.	81.5	84.2	79.7	81.8
108	Army	78.1	85.6	79.4	81.0
109	UL-Lafayette	80.1	82.6	79.8	80.8
110	Wyoming	80.0	81.6	79.2	80.3
111	Rice	78.6	81.4	78.4	79.5
112	Ball St.	78.7	80.7	78.9	79.4
113	UTEP	78.4	81.0	78.2	79.2
114	Old Dominion	76.7	80.6	76.4	77.9
115	Kent St.	77.1	79.0	77.4	77.8
116	Hawaii	77.9	79.0	76.3	77.7
117	UT-San Antonio	76.8	79.2	77.1	77.7
118	Miami (O)	75.4	80.3	76.3	77.3
119	Idaho	74.1	79.1	75.5	76.2
120	South Alabama	74.4	79.1	74.9	76.1
121	Central Florida	74.9	77.8	74.6	75.8
122	Texas St.	74.2	76.9	74.0	75.0
123	Eastern Michigan	71.5	77.6	71.7	73.6
124	New Mexico St.	72.9	74.7	73.0	73.5
125	North Texas	72.4	75.8	72.2	73.5
126	Kansas	75.5	68.7	72.9	72.4
127	UL-Monroe	71.1	70.5	70.7	70.8
128	Charlotte	67.5	69.1	67.0	67.9

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Temple	7-1	10-2	107.4	110.3	109.1	108.9
South Florida	6-2	8-4	102.1	107.8	103.4	104.4
Cincinnati	4-4	7-5	102.0	103.9	103.3	103.1
East Carolina	3-5	5-7	94.7	98.5	95.6	96.3
Connecticut	4-4	6-6	91.0	95.5	92.3	92.9
Central Florida	0-8	0-12	74.9	77.8	74.6	75.8
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Houston	7-1	11-1	109.3	114.8	111.3	111.8
Memphis	5-3	9-3	107.7	108.8	108.0	108.2
Navy	7-1	9-2	105.9	109.9	107.0	107.6
Tulsa	3-5	6-6	89.8	93.9	90.9	91.5
SMU	1-7	2-10	83.3	86.9	82.9	84.4
Tulane	1-7	3-9	82.2	84.7	80.9	82.6
AAC Averages			95.9	99.4	96.6	97.3
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	8-0	12-0	121.1	121.6	120.5	121.1
Florida St.	6-2	10-2	117.2	118.4	117.1	117.6
North Carolina St.	3-5	7-5	109.4	110.4	107.9	109.2
Louisville	5-3	7-5	108.0	109.5	107.9	108.5
Boston College	0-8	3-9	100.3	102.6	98.8	100.6
Wake Forest	1-7	3-9	96.5	99.3	96.1	97.3
Syracuse	2-6	4-8	95.1	97.9	95.0	96.0
Coastal Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
North Carolina	8-0	11-1	121.8	122.4	122.2	122.1
Virginia Tech	4-4	6-6	110.7	110.4	110.8	110.6
Pittsburgh	6-2	8-4	107.5	108.1	107.8	107.8
Georgia Tech	1-7	3-9	109.1	106.5	107.5	107.7
Miami	5-3	8-4	106.1	106.7	107.2	106.7
Duke	4-4	7-5	103.0	103.0	102.8	102.9
Virginia	3-5	4-8	102.7	101.8	103.1	102.5
ACC Averages			107.8	108.5	107.5	107.9
Big 12 Conference
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	8-1	11-1	130.2	126.5	130.9	129.2
Baylor	6-2	9-2	126.7	122.8	126.9	125.5
TCU	7-2	10-2	123.1	115.6	124.0	120.9
Oklahoma St.	7-2	10-2	115.1	111.9	114.7	113.9
West Virginia	4-4	7-4	115.6	110.5	115.4	113.8
Texas Tech	4-5	7-5	108.1	100.4	108.3	105.6
Texas	3-5	4-7	104.7	100.4	104.1	103.1
Kansas St.	2-6	5-6	105.3	96.2	104.6	102.0
Iowa St.	2-7	3-9	100.4	96.3	100.1	98.9
Kansas	0-9	0-12	75.5	68.7	72.9	72.4
Big 12 Averages			110.5	104.9	110.2	108.5
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	7-1	11-1	129.0	124.6	129.8	127.8
Michigan St.	7-1	11-1	119.9	117.3	120.0	119.1
Michigan	6-2	9-3	115.8	113.0	115.3	114.7
Penn St.	4-4	7-5	103.8	103.3	103.0	103.4
Indiana	2-6	6-6	101.0	101.3	101.3	101.2
Maryland	1-7	3-9	94.5	93.4	94.4	94.1
Rutgers	1-7	4-8	93.5	90.8	91.2	91.8
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Iowa	8-0	12-0	111.5	113.2	112.2	112.3
Wisconsin	6-2	9-3	111.6	111.2	110.8	111.2
Nebraska	3-5	5-7	108.5	106.9	107.8	107.7
Northwestern	6-2	10-2	106.4	106.6	106.6	106.5
Minnesota	2-6	5-7	105.1	103.6	104.2	104.3
Illinois	2-6	5-7	104.1	101.9	102.8	102.9
Purdue	1-7	2-10	95.1	94.1	93.4	94.2
Big Ten Averages			107.1	105.8	106.6	106.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Kentucky	8-0	10-2	109.4	109.8	110.9	110.0
Marshall	6-2	9-3	97.9	98.5	97.6	98.0
Middle Tennessee	6-2	7-5	96.6	96.2	96.7	96.5
Florida Atlantic	3-5	3-9	84.1	87.5	84.9	85.5
Florida International	3-5	5-7	83.8	86.2	83.9	84.6
Old Dominion	3-5	5-7	76.7	80.6	76.4	77.9
Charlotte	0-8	2-10	67.5	69.1	67.0	67.9
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Southern Mississippi	7-1	9-3	98.9	101.5	99.9	100.1
Louisiana Tech	6-2	8-4	98.3	98.6	99.1	98.7
Rice	3-5	5-7	78.6	81.4	78.4	79.5
UTEP	3-5	5-7	78.4	81.0	78.2	79.2
UT-San Antonio	3-5	3-9	76.8	79.2	77.1	77.7
North Texas	1-7	1-11	72.4	75.8	72.2	73.5
CUSA Averages			86.1	88.1	86.3	86.8
FBS Independents
Team		Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame		10-2	121.2	118.9	120.9	120.3
BYU		9-3	108.1	108.3	109.3	108.6
Army		2-9	78.1	85.6	79.4	81.0
Independents Averages			102.5	104.3	103.2	103.3
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Bowling Green	7-1	9-3	107.9	112.7	111.0	110.5
Ohio	5-3	8-4	88.8	93.2	90.9	91.0
Akron	5-3	7-5	86.1	92.9	88.4	89.1
Massachusetts	2-6	3-9	82.6	86.1	83.4	84.0
Buffalo	3-5	5-7	81.1	86.3	81.7	83.0
Kent St.	2-6	3-9	77.1	79.0	77.4	77.8
Miami (O)	2-6	3-9	75.4	80.3	76.3	77.3
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Toledo	6-2	9-2	103.7	105.0	104.9	104.5
Western Michigan	6-2	7-5	102.6	103.8	104.0	103.5
Northern Illinois	6-2	8-4	96.6	100.4	97.5	98.2
Central Michigan	6-2	7-5	90.3	94.2	91.7	92.1
Ball St.	2-6	3-9	78.7	80.7	78.9	79.4
Eastern Michigan	0-8	1-11	71.5	77.6	71.7	73.6
MAC Averages			87.9	91.7	89.1	89.5
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	5-3	8-4	107.3	105.1	107.2	106.5
Air Force	6-2	8-4	98.4	101.4	98.1	99.3
Utah St.	5-3	6-6	97.6	97.8	96.0	97.1
Colorado St.	5-3	7-5	92.8	93.3	92.3	92.8
New Mexico	5-3	7-5	92.3	93.4	91.8	92.5
Wyoming	2-6	2-10	80.0	81.6	79.2	80.3
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	8-0	9-3	106.0	110.5	107.9	108.1
San Jose St.	4-4	5-7	92.2	94.2	92.2	92.9
Nevada	4-4	6-6	89.7	93.6	90.0	91.1
UNLV	2-6	3-9	81.9	83.6	81.9	82.5
Fresno St.	2-6	3-9	81.5	84.2	79.7	81.8
Hawaii	0-8	3-10	77.9	79.0	76.3	77.7
MWC Averages			91.5	93.1	91.1	91.9
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Stanford	8-1	10-2	123.2	120.3	123.0	122.2
Oregon	7-2	9-3	118.6	113.3	118.8	116.9
Washington	4-5	6-6	115.9	112.6	115.8	114.8
California	4-5	7-5	115.0	109.7	114.1	112.9
Washington St.	6-3	8-4	108.5	105.1	109.3	107.6
Oregon St.	0-9	2-10	88.7	85.3	86.6	86.9
South Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
USC	6-3	8-4	121.0	116.4	120.6	119.3
UCLA	5-4	8-4	120.5	114.8	118.9	118.1
Utah	6-3	9-3	118.1	112.3	116.3	115.6
Arizona St.	4-5	6-6	114.4	109.5	114.0	112.6
Arizona	3-6	6-6	107.9	102.4	106.8	105.7
Colorado	1-8	4-9	105.3	100.5	103.7	103.2
Pac-12 Averages			113.1	108.5	112.3	111.3
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Tennessee	5-3	8-4	120.1	116.2	120.2	118.8
Georgia	5-3	9-3	116.1	111.2	115.4	114.2
Florida	7-1	10-2	114.3	111.1	114.0	113.1
South Carolina	1-7	3-9	107.3	104.2	106.3	105.9
Missouri	1-7	5-7	106.9	103.4	105.6	105.3
Kentucky	2-6	5-7	101.8	98.4	100.1	100.1
Vanderbilt	2-6	4-8	100.2	96.0	99.4	98.5
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	7-1	11-1	131.7	129.4	131.8	131.0
Ole Miss	6-2	9-3	124.7	120.2	123.9	122.9
Arkansas	5-3	7-5	121.3	116.4	120.8	119.5
LSU	5-3	8-3	119.8	116.4	119.4	118.5
Mississippi St.	4-4	8-4	116.5	113.1	116.5	115.4
Texas A&M	4-4	8-4	116.4	112.9	114.4	114.6
Auburn	2-6	6-6	113.6	110.4	112.3	112.1
SEC Averages			115.1	111.4	114.3	113.6
Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia Southern	6-1	8-3	100.7	103.5	102.6	102.3
Appalachian St.	6-1	9-2	97.0	100.2	98.9	98.7
Arkansas St.	7-0	8-3	94.2	95.7	96.3	95.4
Georgia St.	4-3	5-6	81.2	82.9	82.6	82.2
Troy	2-5	3-8	81.2	82.5	81.8	81.8
UL-Lafayette	3-4	4-7	80.1	82.6	79.8	80.8
Idaho	3-5	4-8	74.1	79.1	75.5	76.2
South Alabama	3-4	5-6	74.4	79.1	74.9	76.1
Texas St.	2-5	3-8	74.2	76.9	74.0	75.0
New Mexico St.	3-4	3-8	72.9	74.7	73.0	73.5
UL-Monroe	0-7	1-11	71.1	70.5	70.7	70.8
Sun Belt Averages			81.9	84.3	82.7	83.0

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	115.1	111.4	114.3	113.6
2	Pac-12	113.1	108.5	112.3	111.3
3	Big 12	110.5	104.9	110.2	108.5
4	ACC	107.8	108.5	107.5	107.9
5	Big Ten	107.1	105.8	106.6	106.5
6	Indep.	102.5	104.3	103.2	103.3
7	AAC	95.9	99.4	96.6	97.3
8	MWC	91.5	93.1	91.1	91.9
9	MAC	87.9	91.7	89.1	89.5
10	CUSA	86.1	88.1	86.3	86.8
11	SBC	81.9	84.3	82.7	83.0

 

FCS Playoffs
1st Round
Chattanooga	50
Fordham	20
Citadel	41
Coastal Carolina	38
Montana	24
South Dakota St.	17
Northern Iowa	53
Eastern Illinois	17
2nd Round	Dec. 5	ESPN3
Jacksonville St.	10-1	2 PM ET
Chattanooga	9-3
Charleston Sou.	9-2	1 PM ET
Citadel	9-3
James Madison	9-2	1 PM ET
Colgate	8-4
McNeese St.	10-0	7 PM ET
Sam Houston	9-3
North Dakota St.	9-2	3:30 PM ET
Montana	8-4
Portland St.	9-2	10 PM ET
Northern Iowa	8-4
Richmond	8-3	12 PM ET
William & Mary	9-3
Illinois St.	9-2	2 PM ET
Western Illinois	7-5

 

This Week’s Games
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Friday, December 4
Bowling Green (n)	Northern Illinois	11.3	12.3	13.5
Saturday, December 5
Houston	Temple	4.9	7.5	5.2
Baylor	Texas	24.5	24.9	25.3
Western Kentucky	Southern Miss.	13.5	11.3	14.0
Georgia Southern	Georgia St.	21.5	22.6	22.0
Arkansas St.	Texas St.	23.0	21.8	25.3
Louisiana-Monroe	New Mexico St.	0.7	-1.7	0.2
Kansas St.	West Virginia	-7.3	-11.3	-7.8
Alabama (n)	Florida	17.4	18.3	17.8
Louisiana-Lafayette	Troy	1.4	2.6	0.5
South Alabama	Appalachian St.	-19.6	-18.1	-21.0
Air Force	San Diego St.	-4.6	-6.1	-6.8
Stanford (n)	USC	3.7	5.4	3.9
Iowa (n)	Michigan St.	-8.4	-4.1	-7.8
Clemson (n)	North Carolina	-0.7	-0.8	-1.7

BOWL PROJECTIONS

Bowl	Conferences		Team	vs.	Team
Cure	AAC	SBC	South Florida	vs.	Georgia Southern
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	New Mexico	vs.	Arizona *
Las Vegas	Pac-12	MWC/BYU	Utah	vs.	BYU
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Ohio	vs.	San Jose St. *
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Louisiana Tech	vs.	Arkansas St.
Miami Beach	AAC	CUSA	Houston	vs.	Western Kentucky
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Western Michigan	vs.	Boise St.
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Connecticut	vs.	Toledo
Poinsettia	MWC	Army	Colorado St.	vs.	Akron *
GoDaddy	MAC	SBC	Bowling Green	vs.	Appalachian St.
Bahamas	CUSA	MAC	Middle Tennessee	vs.	Northern Illinois
Hawaii	AAC	MWC/BYU	Tulsa	vs.	San Diego St.
St. Petersburg	AAC	CUSA	Memphis	vs.	Southern Miss.
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Pittsburgh	vs.	Washington St.
Heart of Dallas	Big 12	CUSA	Nevada *	vs.	Marshall
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Duke	vs.	Indiana
Independence	SEC	ACC	Missouri	vs.	Miami (Fla.)
Foster Farms	Big Ten	Pac-12	Nebraska	vs.	UCLA
Military	ACC	AAC	Virginia Tech	vs.	Navy
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Central Michigan *	vs.	Minnesota
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	Washington *	vs.	Air Force
Russell Athletic	ACC	Big 12	Florida St.	vs.	Oklahoma St.
Arizona	CUSA	MWC	California *	vs.	Utah St.
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Texas Tech	vs.	Texas A&M
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Cincinnati	vs.	Auburn
Belk	ACC	SEC	North Carolina St.	vs.	Mississippi St.
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	vs.	Tennessee
Peach	N. Y. 6	N. Y. 6	Clemson	vs.	Temple
Cotton	Playoff	Playoff	Oklahoma	vs.	Michigan St.
Orange	Playoff	Playoff	Alabama	vs.	North Carolina
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Michigan	vs.	Oregon
Ouback	Big Ten	SEC	Northwestern	vs.	Georgia
Citrus	Big Ten	SEC	Wisconsin	vs.	Ole Miss
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	TCU	vs.	Florida
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	vs.	Stanford
Fiesta	N. Y. 6	N. Y. 6	Iowa	vs.	Notre Dame
TaxSlayer	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Louisville	vs.	LSU
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	West Virginia	vs.	Arkansas
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Baylor	vs.	USC
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Kansas St.	vs.	Arizona St.
Nat’l Champ.	Semifinal	Winners	Alabama	vs.	Oklahoma
* = At-large selection due to contracted conference not having an eligible team for this slot
Note: We have 4 teams with 5-7 in this week’s bowl projections based on highest APR Scores.
As of yet, no definitive protocol has been officially given to the bowls, and we believe there is
a strong possibility that the bowls will use their influence to invite only those 5-7 teams that will
be the top ones to provide financial success to the bowls. Thus, a San Jose St. may lose out.

PiRate Ratings NFL Conference Champion Game Previews–January 19, 2014

NFL Conference Championship Playoff TV Schedule

Day	Time (ET)	Game	TV	Radio
Sunday, January 19	3:00 PM	New England @ Denver	CBS	Westwood 1
Sunday, January 19	6:30 PM	San Francisco @ Seattle	Fox	Westwood 1
To find a local Westwood 1 radio affiliate, check this link:
http://westwoodonesports.com/stations/

Weather Forecasts For Kickoff and Next 3-4 hours

Seattle—Mostly cloudy with virtually no wind.  Temperatures falling from the upper to the lower 40’s during the game.

 

 

Denver—Incredibly beautiful, Spring-like afternoon.  Temperatures starting in the upper 50’s with plentiful sunshine.  Light winds, and temperatures will fall to around 50 by the end of the game.

 

 

PiRate Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Seattle	San Francisco	1.9	1.9	1.9
Denver	New England	4.8	6.6	5.2

 

Computer Simulations (100x)

San Francisco at Seattle

San Francisco wins: 54

Seattle wins: 46

Average Margin: San Francisco 22.1  Seattle 20.7 

SF Outlier Win: 31-10

Sea Outlier Win: 24-3

 

New England at Denver

NE Wins: 53

Denver Wins: 47

Average Margin: New England 27.9  Denver 27.6

NE Outlier Win: 41-24

Den Outlier Win: 34-16

 

This is potentially the best pair of conference championship games since 2001-02.

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Conference Championship Round–January 22, 2012

This preview comes out a day late this week due to the unavailability of access to the simulator until Wednesday at lunchtime.  Better late than never.

 

Conference Championship Previews

 

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Spreads

 

Home Team in CAPS
Conference Championships:
Vegas Line as of Wednesday, January 18, 2012  @ 5:00 PM EST
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
NEW ENGLAND	Baltimore	10.1	9.9	6.5	7	50 1/2
SAN FRANCISCO	New York Giants	1.7	4.1	0.2	2 1/2	42

 

 

Computer Simulations

 

Sunday, January 22, 2012

3PM EST

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots

 

100 Simulations: New England 63  Baltimore 37

Avg. Sim Score: New England 26.5  Baltimore 19.7  (46.2 total points)

Vs. Spread: New England 48  Baltimore 47  Push 5

Outlier Score A: New England 38  Baltimore 13

Outlier Score B: Baltimore 24  New England 12

 

6:30 PM EST

New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers

 

100 Simulations: New York Giants 53  San Francisco 47

Avg. Sim Score: New York Giants 23.6  San Francisco 20.9 (44.5 points)

Vs. Spread: New York Giants 82  San Francisco 18

Outlier Score A: New York Giants 37  San Francisco 14

Outlier Score B: San Francisco 27  New York Giants 9

 Note: The PiRate Ratings will begin its NCAA Basketball coverage next week.