The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 1, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: December 1, 2019

This Week’s Conference Championships Spreads

All times given are Eastern Standard

Friday, December 6

Conference

Pac-12

North Division

Oregon 10-2

South Division

Utah 11-1

Site:

Santa Clara

Time:

8:00 PM

TV:

ABC

PiRate:

Utah by 7.1

Mean:

Utah by 6.3

Bias:

Utah by 6.8

 

 

Predicted Score:

Utah 27

Oregon 20

 

 

Saturday, December 7

 

Conference

Sun Belt

East Division

Appalachian St. 11-1

West Division

Louisiana 10-2

Site:

Boone, NC (Appy St.)

Time:

12 Noon

TV:

ESPN

PiRate:

Appy St. by 9.2

Mean:

Appy St. by 8.4

Bias:

Appy St. by 9.1

Predicted Score:

Appalachian St. 35

Louisiana 26

 

 

Conference

Mid-American

East Division

Miami (O) 7-5

West Division

Central Michigan 8-4

Site:

Detroit

Time:

12 Noon

TV:

ESPN 2

PiRate:

CMU by 2.0

Mean:

CMU by 3.9

Bias:

CMU by 3.1

 

 

Predicted Score:

Central Mich. 31

Miami (O) 28

 

 

Conference

Big 12

1st Place

Oklahoma 11-1

2nd Place

Baylor 11-1

Site:

Arlington, TX

Time:

12 Noon

TV:

ABC

PiRate:

Oklahoma by 5.2

Mean:

Oklahoma by 4.6

Bias:

Oklahoma by 5.4

 

 

Predicted Score:

Oklahoma 38

Baylor 33

 

 

Conference

Conference USA

East Division

Florida Atlantic 9-3

West Division

UAB 9-3

Site:

Boca Raton, FL (FAU)

Time:

1:30 PM

TV:

CBSSN

PiRate:

FAU by 11.9

Mean:

FAU by 10.0

Bias:

FAU by 12.2

 

 

Predicted Score:

Florida Atlantic 28

UAB 17

 

 

Conference

American Athletic

East Division

Cincinnati 10-2

West Division

Memphis 11-1

Site:

Memphis

Time:

3:30 PM

TV:

ABC

PiRate:

Memphis by 6.9

Mean:

Memphis by 7.8

Bias:

Memphis by 8.1

 

 

Predicted Score:

Memphis 35

Cincinnati 27

 

 

Conference

Mountain West

Mountain Division

Boise St. 11-1

West Division

Hawaii 9-4

Site:

Boise, ID

Time:

4:00 PM

TV:

ESPN

PiRate:

Boise St. by 16.9

Mean:

Boise St. by 15.7

Bias:

Boise St. by 18.0

 

 

Predicted Score:

Boise St. 48

Hawaii 31

 

 

Conference

Southeastern

East Division

Georgia 11-1

West Division

LSU 12-0

Site:

Atlanta

Time:

4:00 PM

TV:

CBS

PiRate:

LSU by 5.6

Mean:

LSU by 5.3

Bias:

LSU by 5.5

Predicted Score:

LSU 35

Georgia 30

 

 

Conference

Atlantic Coast

Atlantic Division

Clemson 12-0

Coastal Division

Virginia 9-3

Site:

Charlotte

Time:

7:30 PM

TV:

ABC

PiRate:

Clemson by 30.2

Mean:

Clemson by 28.3

Bias:

Clemson by 30.9

 

 

Predicted Score:

Clemson 40

Virginia 10

 

 

Conference

Big Ten

East Division

Ohio St. 12-0

West Division

Wisconsin 10-2

Site:

Indianapolis

Time:

8:00 PM

TV:

Fox

PiRate:

Ohio St. by 19.4

Mean:

Ohio St. by 18.8

Bias:

Ohio St. by 20.5

 

 

Predicted Score:

Ohio St. 44

Wisconsin 24

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Ohio St.

141.9

141.1

143.0

142.0

2

Clemson

138.8

137.0

140.0

138.6

3

L S U

135.5

133.5

135.7

134.9

4

Georgia

128.4

126.7

128.7

127.9

5

Alabama

128.8

125.7

129.1

127.9

6

Utah

126.8

125.9

127.5

126.7

7

Michigan

125.6

124.3

125.9

125.3

8

Florida

125.9

123.5

125.8

125.0

9

Oklahoma

122.9

122.4

122.5

122.6

10

Wisconsin

122.5

122.3

122.6

122.5

11

Auburn

122.9

121.1

122.7

122.2

12

Penn St.

121.4

120.5

121.4

121.1

13

Notre Dame

120.8

119.9

121.0

120.6

14

Oregon

119.5

119.4

120.2

119.7

15

Iowa

118.4

116.9

118.0

117.8

16

Baylor

117.7

117.8

117.1

117.5

17

Minnesota

117.2

116.8

116.5

116.8

18

Texas A&M

115.1

112.5

113.3

113.7

19

Washington

113.1

112.8

114.0

113.3

20

Iowa St.

112.9

113.2

112.7

112.9

21

Kansas St.

112.4

112.3

112.3

112.3

22

Kentucky

112.4

111.3

111.6

111.8

23

Central Florida

111.6

111.1

112.1

111.6

24

U S C

111.0

111.6

111.8

111.5

25

Texas

111.1

111.4

111.0

111.2

26

Memphis

110.2

110.6

111.4

110.7

27

Virginia Tech

110.5

110.5

111.2

110.7

28

Tennessee

110.7

110.4

110.1

110.4

29

Oklahoma St.

110.3

110.8

109.7

110.3

30

Mississippi St.

109.8

106.6

113.3

109.9

31

Washington St.

110.0

109.2

110.0

109.7

32

Indiana

109.9

108.9

109.5

109.4

33

Appalachian St.

109.6

109.1

109.0

109.2

34

Virginia

108.6

108.7

109.1

108.8

35

Missouri

109.9

107.5

108.5

108.6

36

T C U

107.7

109.7

107.9

108.4

37

Boise St.

107.9

108.2

108.0

108.0

38

South Carolina

109.0

107.1

108.0

108.0

39

North Carolina

107.7

107.6

108.4

107.9

40

Arizona St.

107.9

107.3

108.1

107.8

41

Ole Miss

107.8

106.9

108.1

107.6

42

Michigan St.

107.7

106.8

106.7

107.1

43

Nebraska

106.3

106.5

105.6

106.1

44

Cincinnati

105.8

105.3

105.8

105.6

45

Air Force

104.6

106.4

105.6

105.5

46

SMU

104.8

104.7

105.4

105.0

47

Florida St.

104.8

104.6

104.9

104.8

48

Miami (Fla.)

104.5

104.0

105.1

104.5

49

Texas Tech

104.6

104.9

103.7

104.4

50

Purdue

104.1

103.9

103.7

103.9

51

California

103.7

103.5

104.2

103.8

52

Wake Forest

103.1

102.4

103.3

102.9

53

Louisiana

102.9

103.2

102.4

102.8

54

Northwestern

103.4

102.6

102.1

102.7

55

West Virginia

102.7

102.7

102.3

102.5

56

Illinois

102.2

102.8

101.8

102.3

57

Pittsburgh

102.4

101.8

102.3

102.2

58

BYU

102.1

102.3

101.6

102.0

59

Boston College

101.9

101.4

102.0

101.8

60

Oregon St.

101.2

102.1

101.5

101.6

61

Navy

100.3

102.6

101.6

101.5

62

Stanford

101.6

100.6

100.8

101.0

63

Louisville

100.2

99.8

99.9

100.0

64

Tulane

99.6

100.2

100.0

99.9

65

Temple

99.4

99.3

100.5

99.7

66

Wyoming

98.6

100.3

98.9

99.3

67

Syracuse

99.7

98.9

98.9

99.2

68

Duke

99.4

98.6

99.1

99.0

69

Georgia Southern

99.0

99.1

98.7

99.0

70

Florida Atlantic

98.5

98.5

99.6

98.9

71

Colorado

98.6

98.5

98.7

98.6

72

U C L A

98.7

98.3

98.2

98.4

73

Ohio

98.4

97.6

98.9

98.3

74

San Diego St.

97.6

99.2

97.6

98.1

75

Hawaii

97.0

98.4

96.4

97.3

76

Western Michigan

97.6

96.6

97.1

97.1

77

Arizona

97.0

96.8

96.8

96.9

78

Utah St.

96.8

96.5

97.1

96.8

79

Western Kentucky

95.3

95.9

96.5

95.9

80

Houston

94.8

95.7

96.4

95.6

81

Buffalo

94.8

95.4

96.2

95.4

82

Tulsa

94.1

95.1

95.4

94.9

83

Kansas

93.7

94.7

93.8

94.1

84

Army

94.1

94.3

93.4

94.0

85

Louisiana Tech

93.9

94.1

93.7

93.9

86

Southern Miss.

93.7

92.6

93.9

93.4

87

Central Michigan

92.3

93.1

93.5

92.9

88

Maryland

93.5

92.6

92.0

92.7

89

Fresno St.

92.4

93.4

92.2

92.7

90

Marshall

92.0

91.7

92.5

92.1

91

North Carolina St.

92.3

91.4

91.6

91.8

92

Vanderbilt

92.5

90.9

90.9

91.4

93

Ball St.

91.0

90.7

91.2

91.0

94

Nevada

89.8

91.3

89.1

90.1

95

Arkansas St.

90.0

90.4

89.7

90.0

96

Liberty

89.5

90.8

89.8

90.0

97

U A B

89.1

91.0

89.9

90.0

98

Miami (Ohio)

90.3

89.2

90.4

90.0

99

Georgia Tech

90.2

88.9

90.2

89.8

100

Kent St.

89.0

89.1

89.8

89.3

101

Colorado St.

88.0

91.2

88.7

89.3

102

Georgia St.

89.3

90.1

88.4

89.3

103

Troy

89.6

89.8

88.1

89.2

104

Florida Int’l.

89.1

89.0

89.3

89.1

105

South Florida

88.8

89.3

88.9

89.0

106

Middle Tennessee

88.9

88.5

89.2

88.9

107

San Jose St.

87.9

89.7

88.1

88.6

108

Charlotte

87.9

88.3

88.6

88.3

109

Eastern Michigan

87.8

88.0

88.2

88.0

110

Arkansas

88.0

87.8

87.3

87.7

111

Northern Illinois

87.5

86.9

87.8

87.4

112

Coastal Carolina

86.9

87.8

86.3

87.0

113

Louisiana-Monroe

86.7

87.4

86.4

86.9

114

North Texas

86.3

86.0

86.2

86.2

115

Rutgers

85.1

84.6

83.6

84.4

116

U N L V

83.7

85.4

83.5

84.2

117

Toledo

84.0

83.9

84.1

84.0

118

Rice

82.4

83.7

82.4

82.8

119

East Carolina

82.4

83.6

82.3

82.8

120

New Mexico

79.7

81.7

78.6

80.0

121

Texas St.

79.2

79.9

78.9

79.3

122

South Alabama

77.0

79.5

77.0

77.8

123

Texas-San Antonio

76.1

77.9

76.5

76.8

124

New Mexico St.

75.6

77.3

75.2

76.0

125

Old Dominion

73.5

73.5

73.2

73.4

126

Connecticut

71.3

73.9

70.8

72.0

127

U T E P

68.5

71.8

68.6

69.6

128

Bowling Green

68.1

67.5

67.8

67.8

129

Akron

62.8

62.5

61.7

62.3

130

Massachusetts

56.7

58.2

55.7

56.9

 

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

111.6

111.1

112.1

111.6

6-2

9-3

Cincinnati

105.8

105.3

105.8

105.6

7-1

10-2

Temple

99.4

99.3

100.5

99.7

5-3

8-4

South Florida

88.8

89.3

88.9

89.0

2-6

4-8

East Carolina

82.4

83.6

82.3

82.8

1-7

4-8

Connecticut

71.3

73.9

70.8

72.0

0-8

2-10

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Memphis

110.2

110.6

111.4

110.7

7-1

11-1

SMU

104.8

104.7

105.4

105.0

6-2

10-2

Navy

100.3

102.6

101.6

101.5

7-1

9-2

Tulane

99.6

100.2

100.0

99.9

3-5

6-6

Houston

94.8

95.7

96.4

95.6

2-6

4-8

Tulsa

94.1

95.1

95.4

94.9

2-6

4-8

AAC Averages

96.9

97.6

97.6

97.4

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

138.8

137.0

140.0

138.6

8-0

12-0

Florida St.

104.8

104.6

104.9

104.8

4-4

6-6

Wake Forest

103.1

102.4

103.3

102.9

4-4

8-4

Boston College

101.9

101.4

102.0

101.8

4-4

6-6

Louisville

100.2

99.8

99.9

100.0

5-3

7-5

Syracuse

99.7

98.9

98.9

99.2

2-6

5-7

North Carolina St.

92.3

91.4

91.6

91.8

1-7

4-8

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Virginia Tech

110.5

110.5

111.2

110.7

5-3

8-4

Virginia

108.6

108.7

109.1

108.8

6-2

9-3

North Carolina

107.7

107.6

108.4

107.9

4-4

6-6

Miami (Fla.)

104.5

104.0

105.1

104.5

4-4

6-6

Pittsburgh

102.4

101.8

102.3

102.2

4-4

7-5

Duke

99.4

98.6

99.1

99.0

3-5

5-7

Georgia Tech

90.2

88.9

90.2

89.8

2-6

3-9

ACC Averages

104.6

104.0

104.7

104.4

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

122.9

122.4

122.5

122.6

8-1

11-1

Baylor

117.7

117.8

117.1

117.5

8-1

11-1

Iowa St.

112.9

113.2

112.7

112.9

5-4

7-5

Kansas St.

112.4

112.3

112.3

112.3

5-4

8-4

Texas

111.1

111.4

111.0

111.2

5-4

7-5

Oklahoma St.

110.3

110.8

109.7

110.3

5-4

8-4

T C U

107.7

109.7

107.9

108.4

3-6

5-7

Texas Tech

104.6

104.9

103.7

104.4

2-7

4-8

West Virginia

102.7

102.7

102.3

102.5

3-6

5-7

Kansas

93.7

94.7

93.8

94.1

1-8

3-9

Big 12 Averages

109.6

110.0

109.3

109.6

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

141.9

141.1

143.0

142.0

9-0

12-0

Michigan

125.6

124.3

125.9

125.3

6-3

9-3

Penn St.

121.4

120.5

121.4

121.1

7-2

10-2

Indiana

109.9

108.9

109.5

109.4

5-4

8-4

Michigan St.

107.7

106.8

106.7

107.1

4-5

6-6

Maryland

93.5

92.6

92.0

92.7

1-8

3-9

Rutgers

85.1

84.6

83.6

84.4

0-9

2-10

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

122.5

122.3

122.6

122.5

7-2

10-2

Iowa

118.4

116.9

118.0

117.8

6-3

9-3

Minnesota

117.2

116.8

116.5

116.8

7-2

10-2

Nebraska

106.3

106.5

105.6

106.1

3-6

5-7

Purdue

104.1

103.9

103.7

103.9

3-6

4-8

Northwestern

103.4

102.6

102.1

102.7

1-8

3-9

Illinois

102.2

102.8

101.8

102.3

4-5

6-6

Big Ten Averages

111.4

110.8

110.9

111.0

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Florida Atlantic

98.5

98.5

99.6

98.9

7-1

9-3

Western Kentucky

95.3

95.9

96.5

95.9

6-2

8-4

Marshall

92.0

91.7

92.5

92.1

6-2

8-4

Florida Int’l.

89.1

89.0

89.3

89.1

4-4

6-6

Middle Tennessee

88.9

88.5

89.2

88.9

3-5

4-8

Charlotte

87.9

88.3

88.6

88.3

5-3

7-5

Old Dominion

73.5

73.5

73.2

73.4

0-8

1-11

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Louisiana Tech

93.9

94.1

93.7

93.9

6-2

9-3

Southern Miss.

93.7

92.6

93.9

93.4

5-3

7-5

U A B

89.1

91.0

89.9

90.0

6-2

9-3

North Texas

86.3

86.0

86.2

86.2

3-5

4-8

Rice

82.4

83.7

82.4

82.8

3-5

3-9

Texas-San Antonio

76.1

77.9

76.5

76.8

3-5

4-8

U T E P

68.5

71.8

68.6

69.6

0-8

1-11

 

 

CUSA Averages

86.8

87.3

87.2

87.1

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

120.8

119.9

121.0

120.6

x

10-2

BYU

102.1

102.3

101.6

102.0

x

7-5

Army

94.1

94.3

93.4

94.0

x

5-7

Liberty

89.5

90.8

89.8

90.0

x

7-5

New Mexico St.

75.6

77.3

75.2

76.0

x

2-10

Massachusetts

56.7

58.2

55.7

56.9

x

1-11

Indep. Averages

89.8

90.5

89.4

89.9

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Ohio

98.4

97.6

98.9

98.3

5-3

6-6

Buffalo

94.8

95.4

96.2

95.4

5-3

7-5

Miami (Ohio)

90.3

89.2

90.4

90.0

6-2

7-5

Kent St.

89.0

89.1

89.8

89.3

5-3

6-6

Bowling Green

68.1

67.5

67.8

67.8

2-6

3-9

Akron

62.8

62.5

61.7

62.3

0-8

0-12

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

97.6

96.6

97.1

97.1

5-3

7-5

Central Michigan

92.3

93.1

93.5

92.9

6-2

8-4

Ball St.

91.0

90.7

91.2

91.0

4-4

5-7

Eastern Michigan

87.8

88.0

88.2

88.0

3-5

6-6

Northern Illinois

87.5

86.9

87.8

87.4

4-4

5-7

Toledo

84.0

83.9

84.1

84.0

3-5

6-6

MAC Averages

87.0

86.7

87.2

87.0

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Boise St.

107.9

108.2

108.0

108.0

8-0

11-1

Air Force

104.6

106.4

105.6

105.5

7-1

10-2

Wyoming

98.6

100.3

98.9

99.3

4-4

7-5

Utah St.

96.8

96.5

97.1

96.8

6-2

7-5

Colorado St.

88.0

91.2

88.7

89.3

3-5

4-8

New Mexico

79.7

81.7

78.6

80.0

0-8

2-10

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

San Diego St.

97.6

99.2

97.6

98.1

5-3

9-3

Hawaii

97.0

98.4

96.4

97.3

5-3

9-4

Fresno St.

92.4

93.4

92.2

92.7

2-6

4-8

Nevada

89.8

91.3

89.1

90.1

4-4

7-5

San Jose St.

87.9

89.7

88.1

88.6

2-6

5-7

U N L V

83.7

85.4

83.5

84.2

2-6

4-8

MWC Averages

93.7

95.1

93.6

94.2

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

119.5

119.4

120.2

119.7

8-1

10-2

Washington

113.1

112.8

114.0

113.3

4-5

7-5

Washington St.

110.0

109.2

110.0

109.7

3-6

6-6

California

103.7

103.5

104.2

103.8

4-5

7-5

Oregon St.

101.2

102.1

101.5

101.6

4-5

5-7

Stanford

101.6

100.6

100.8

101.0

3-6

4-8

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

126.8

125.9

127.5

126.7

8-1

11-1

U S C

111.0

111.6

111.8

111.5

7-2

8-4

Arizona St.

107.9

107.3

108.1

107.8

4-5

7-5

Colorado

98.6

98.5

98.7

98.6

3-6

5-7

U C L A

98.7

98.3

98.2

98.4

4-5

4-8

Arizona

97.0

96.8

96.8

96.9

2-7

4-8

Pac-12 Averages

107.4

107.2

107.7

107.4

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

128.4

126.7

128.7

127.9

7-1

11-1

Florida

125.9

123.5

125.8

125.0

6-2

10-2

Kentucky

112.4

111.3

111.6

111.8

3-5

7-5

Tennessee

110.7

110.4

110.1

110.4

5-3

7-5

Missouri

109.9

107.5

108.5

108.6

3-5

6-6

South Carolina

109.0

107.1

108.0

108.0

3-5

4-8

Vanderbilt

92.5

90.9

90.9

91.4

1-7

3-9

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

L S U

135.5

133.5

135.7

134.9

8-0

12-0

Alabama

128.8

125.7

129.1

127.9

6-2

10-2

Auburn

122.9

121.1

122.7

122.2

5-3

9-3

Texas A&M

115.1

112.5

113.3

113.7

4-4

7-5

Mississippi St.

109.8

106.6

113.3

109.9

3-5

6-6

Ole Miss

107.8

106.9

108.1

107.6

2-6

4-8

Arkansas

88.0

87.8

87.3

87.7

0-8

2-10

SEC Averages

114.1

112.2

113.8

113.4

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

109.6

109.1

109.0

109.2

7-1

11-1

Georgia Southern

99.0

99.1

98.7

99.0

5-3

7-5

Georgia St.

89.3

90.1

88.4

89.3

4-4

7-5

Troy

89.6

89.8

88.1

89.2

3-5

5-7

Coastal Carolina

86.9

87.8

86.3

87.0

2-6

5-7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

102.9

103.2

102.4

102.8

7-1

10-2

Arkansas St.

90.0

90.4

89.7

90.0

5-3

7-5

Louisiana-Monroe

86.7

87.4

86.4

86.9

4-4

5-7

Texas St.

79.2

79.9

78.9

79.3

2-6

3-9

South Alabama

77.0

79.5

77.0

77.8

1-7

2-10

SBC Averages

91.0

91.6

90.5

91.1

 

Conference Power Ratings

#

League

Average

1

Southeastern

113.4

2

Big Ten

111.0

3

Big 12

109.6

4

Pac-12

107.4

5

Atlantic Coast

104.4

6

American

97.4

7

Mountain West

94.2

8

Sun Belt

91.1

9

Independents

89.9

10

Conference USA

87.1

11

Mid-American

87.0

 

 

Our Guess at Top 6

1

Ohio St.

2

LSU

3

Clemson

4

Georgia

5

Utah

6

Oklahoma

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1

Memphis

2

Boise St.

3

Appalachian St.

4

Cincinnati

5

Louisiana

 

PiRate Bowl Projections

One is the loneliest team that you’ll ever know–79 Bowl Eligible Teams For 78 Spots

 

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Buffalo

Charlotte

Frisco

AAC

At-large

SMU

[Louisiana Tech]

Cure

AAC

SBC

Navy

Georgia St.

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

UAB

Air Force

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Central Florida

Miami (O)

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Western Michigan

Arkansas St.

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

Boise St.

Washington St.

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

Western Kentucky

Appalachian St.

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Cincinnati

Florida Atlantic

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC/MWC

BYU

Hawaii

Independence

ACC

SEC

North Carolina

[Florida Int’l.]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

Florida St.

Michigan St.

Military

ACC

AAC

Boston College

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

Pittsburgh

Michigan

Texas

Big 12

SEC

Texas

Texas A&M

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington

Iowa

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

[Liberty]

[Nevada]

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Notre Dame

Iowa St.

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Oklahoma

Memphis

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

Southern Miss.

[Kent St.]

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Arizona St.

Illinois

Music City

SEC

ACC

Kentucky

Indiana

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Virginia

Alabama

Belk

ACC

SEC

Wake Forest

[Marshall]

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

Virginia Tech

California

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

Kansas St.

Mississippi St.

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Louisiana

San Diego St.

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Oklahoma St.

USC

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Florida

Wisconsin

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Minnesota

Auburn

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Penn St.

Oregon

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Baylor

Georgia

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Tulane

[Miami (Fla.)]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Tennessee

Louisville

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Toledo

Utah St.

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

[Ohio]

Wyoming

Lending Tree

MAC

SBC

Central Michigan

Georgia Southern

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

LSU

Clemson

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Ohio St.

Utah

Championship

Fiesta

Peach

Clemson

Ohio St.

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

January 14, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for The Conference Championship Playoff Round: January 20, 2019

Sunday, January 20, 2019

NFC Championship Game

Los Angeles Rams 14-3-0 at New Orleans Saints 14-3-0

Time: 3:05 PM Eastern Standard Time

TV: Fox

Monday Line: New Orleans by 3 1/2

Total Line: 57

PiRate Ratings 

PiRate: New Orleans by 8.1

Mean: New Orleans by 7.8

Bias: New Orleans by 8.1

Total: 55 1/2

Expected Score: New Orleans 31  Los Angeles 24

 

AFC Championship Game

New England Patriots 12-5-0 at Kansas City Chiefs 13-4-0

Time: 6:40 PM Eastern Standard Time

TV: CBS

Monday Line: Kansas City by 3

Total Line: 57

PiRate Ratings 

PiRate: Kansas City by 4.4

Mean: Kansas City by 4.4

Bias: Kansas City by 4.3

Total: 53

Expected Score:  Kansas City 28  New England 24

 

60 Seasons Ago

The NFL as we know it today owes its popularity to 60 years ago at the conclusion of the 1958 regular season.  This would be the first ever live nationally televised NFL Championship Game.  Before you wonder why other games before were not shown from coast to coast, just 10 years before only a handful of cities had television stations.  In some cities, only a test pattern was shown for most or all of the day, and people would turn their sets on to see it!  So, TV was still in its adolescence in 1958.

The upstart Baltimore Colts, led by the young and talented quarterback Johnny Unitas, fullback Alan Ameche, and two incredible pass catchers in Raymond Berry and Lenny Moore won the West Division Championship with a 9-3 record, 8-1 in the games Unitas started and played.  That one loss was to the New York Giants, a team with the greatest ever combination of offensive and defensive coordinators.  Vince Lombardi directed the Giants’ offense, and Tom Landry led the Giants’ defense.

Before the Giants could host this game in Yankee Stadium, they had to play an extra game to get to the NFL Championship Game.  The Giants finished tied with Cleveland at 9-3, and even though they had swept the Browns in the regular season, in those days if teams finished tied at the top of a division race, they played again for the division title, and the NFL Championship Game was re-scheduled for a week later.

New York stopped Cleveland for a third time that year, holding the great Jim Brown to just eight yards rushing in a 10-0 shutout.  The Giants were the favorites, and Jim Lee Howell and his coaching staff were more than prepared to contain Unitas and move the ball on offense with a conservative smash-mouth style of offense.

Like I said previously, it is because of this game that the NFL became what it is today.  Overnight, sports fans throughout the country stopped talking about the New York Yankees chances of repeating as World Series champions in 1959 (they would not), or whether the great two-year old thoroughbred Sword Dancer would break the 11-year string and win the Triple Crown (2nd in the Derby and Preakness and won the Belmont).

NFL Football was at best the number three sport in America before this game.  Major League baseball was still the number one sport and the real American Pastime.  There were still just 16 teams in the big leagues, even though two had left the number one market for the West Coast.  College football was number two, and the recent champion LSU Tigers with their famous Chinese Bandits had generated a lot of the headlines that Autumn.

If by chance you do not know how the NFL Championship Game turned out and why it “made” NFL Football into the number one spectator sport in the nation, take a look at this video from NFL Films.

 

January 15, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Conference Championship Games: January 21, 2018

All times given are Eastern Standard

Sunday, January 21, 2018

3:05 PM on CBS

Jacksonville Jaguars (11-6-0) at New England Patriots (14-3-0)

PiRate: New England by 7.6

Mean: New England by 8.0

Bias: New England by 7.4

Total: 44

Estimated Realistic Score: New England 27  Jacksonville 17 

 

6:40 PM on Fox

Minnesota Vikings (14-3-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (14-3-0)

PiRate: Minnesota by 2.0

Mean: Minnesota by 1.2

Bias:  Minnesota by 2.1

Total: 37

Estimated Realistic Score: Minnesota 20  Philadelphia 17

November 26, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for December 1-2 & 9, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads (+Army-Navy for next week)

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
USC (n) Stanford -0.7 0.2 -0.6
Central Florida Memphis 3.5 5.5 4.0
Florida St. UL-Monroe 38.0 36.1 37.4
Toledo (n) Akron 16.0 13.5 17.2
Florida Atlantic North Texas 14.3 14.8 15.0
Oklahoma (n) TCU 6.5 6.9 7.2
Coastal Carolina Georgia Southern -6.2 -5.9 -5.0
Georgia St. Idaho 7.5 6.3 6.5
Appy St. UL-Lafayette 15.7 13.2 15.6
Arkansas St. Troy -0.8 0.0 0.5
Georgia (n) Auburn -3.1 -1.1 -3.1
New Mexico St. South Alabama 7.9 4.7 7.8
Boise St. Fresno St. 10.6 10.5 10.0
Miami (Fla.) (n) Clemson -7.9 -6.4 -8.6
Wisconsin (n) Ohio St. -6.3 -6.7 -7.5
         
Army (n) Navy -0.4 -1.0 -0.3

(n) means neutral site game

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Retrodictive Rankings (Based on past results and not predictive of the future)

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Clemson
2 Wisconsin
3 Alabama
4 Oklahoma
5 Georgia
6 Auburn
7 Ohio St.
8 Central Florida
9 Penn St.
10 Miami (Fla)
11 Washington
12 USC
13 Notre Dame
14 TCU
15 Virginia Tech
16 Stanford
17 Oklahoma St.
18 Michigan St.
19 Memphis
20 Michigan
21 Washington St.
22 Northwestern
23 LSU
24 North Carolina St.
25 Iowa
26 Louisville
27 Mississippi St.
28 Boston College
29 South Florida
30 Iowa St.
31 Boise St.
32 Wake Forest
33 Toledo
34 South Carolina
35 San Diego St.
36 Oregon
37 Florida Atlantic
38 Florida St.
39 Arizona St.
40 Texas A&M
41 Texas
42 West Virginia
43 Purdue
44 Georgia Tech
45 Kansas St.
46 Missouri
47 Arizona
48 Fresno St.
49 UCLA
50 Navy
51 Troy
52 Houston
53 Texas Tech
54 Utah
55 Army
56 Kentucky
57 Duke
58 SMU
59 Northern Illinois
60 Indiana
61 Virginia
62 North Texas
63 California
64 Ole Miss
65 Ohio
66 Pittsburgh
67 Central Michigan
68 Minnesota
69 Florida
70 Syracuse
71 Maryland
72 Wyoming
73 Marshall
74 Colorado
75 Colorado St.
76 Temple
77 Nebraska
78 Western Michigan
79 Tulane
80 Arkansas St.
81 Akron
82 Appalachian St.
83 Southern Miss.
84 Florida Int’l.
85 Vanderbilt
86 Buffalo
87 Arkansas
88 UAB
89 Tennessee
90 Utah St.
91 North Carolina
92 Eastern Michigan
93 Rutgers
94 Air Force
95 Louisiana Tech
96 Middle Tennessee
97 UTSA
98 Miami (O)
99 Georgia St.
100 Cincinnati
101 Western Kentucky
102 Tulsa
103 UNLV
104 Baylor
105 Massachusetts
106 East Carolina
107 New Mexico St.
108 BYU
109 Nevada
110 Connecticut
111 UL-Monroe
112 Illinois
113 Old Dominion
114 UL-Lafayette
115 Bowling Green
116 South Alabama
117 New Mexico
118 Idaho
119 Oregon St.
120 Hawaii
121 Georgia Southern
122 Kansas
123 Kent St.
124 Coastal Carolina
125 Ball St.
126 Rice
127 Charlotte
128 Texas St.
129 San Jose St.
130 UTEP

Predictive Ratings (Forward looking for the next game on the schedule)

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 135.6 132.3 134.3 134.1
2 Ohio St. 132.0 129.9 132.3 131.4
3 Auburn 131.3 128.9 131.7 130.6
4 Clemson 130.0 127.2 129.7 129.0
5 Penn St. 129.0 127.9 129.3 128.7
6 Georgia 128.2 127.8 128.6 128.2
7 Oklahoma 126.3 125.0 127.3 126.2
8 Washington 126.6 124.4 126.6 125.9
9 Wisconsin 125.7 123.2 124.8 124.6
10 Miami 122.1 120.8 121.1 121.3
11 Oklahoma St. 120.6 119.9 121.0 120.5
12 Stanford 120.9 119.2 120.4 120.2
13 U S C 120.2 119.4 119.8 119.8
14 T C U 119.8 118.1 120.1 119.3
15 L S U 119.1 116.7 119.6 118.5
16 Virginia Tech 118.7 118.1 118.5 118.4
17 Louisville 117.9 116.9 117.8 117.5
18 Florida St. 117.1 116.1 115.7 116.3
19 Notre Dame 116.0 115.0 116.0 115.6
20 N. Carolina St. 115.9 115.1 115.7 115.6
21 Michigan 115.8 115.5 115.1 115.5
22 Northwestern 115.6 114.4 115.7 115.2
23 Central Florida 113.8 115.0 115.1 114.6
24 Iowa 114.1 114.4 113.3 114.0
25 Memphis 113.3 112.5 114.1 113.3
26 Iowa State 112.5 112.6 113.5 112.9
27 Boston College 112.8 112.4 112.9 112.7
28 Washington St. 113.3 111.2 112.8 112.4
29 Mississippi St. 112.4 112.4 112.0 112.3
30 Texas 111.8 112.1 112.4 112.1
31 Kansas St. 111.8 111.8 111.8 111.8
32 Wake Forest 112.2 110.5 112.3 111.7
33 Oregon 112.3 110.2 111.7 111.4
34 Duke 110.4 109.4 109.5 109.8
35 Georgia Tech 110.2 108.4 108.7 109.1
36 South Florida 109.0 108.2 109.3 108.8
37 Missouri 109.6 107.9 108.9 108.8
38 West Virginia 108.4 109.0 108.5 108.6
39 Pittsburgh 108.8 108.1 108.7 108.5
40 Utah 108.2 108.3 108.3 108.3
41 Michigan St. 107.5 108.1 108.6 108.1
42 Arizona St. 107.6 106.4 107.3 107.1
43 S. Carolina 107.5 106.8 106.5 106.9
44 Texas A&M 107.8 105.9 106.9 106.9
45 Boise St. 106.1 104.8 106.3 105.7
46 Indiana 105.5 105.6 105.9 105.7
47 Ole Miss 106.3 105.0 105.4 105.6
48 Purdue 105.4 105.3 105.9 105.5
49 Kentucky 106.2 105.5 104.8 105.5
50 Arizona 106.2 105.0 105.1 105.4
51 Florida 105.7 105.4 105.1 105.4
52 Texas Tech 105.2 104.9 104.8 105.0
53 Toledo 103.6 103.4 105.6 104.2
54 California 105.3 103.2 103.8 104.1
55 U C L A 104.1 103.3 103.5 103.6
56 Colorado 104.5 103.4 102.4 103.4
57 Virginia 103.1 102.1 103.4 102.9
58 San Diego St. 102.4 102.3 103.5 102.7
59 Houston 102.4 102.1 102.5 102.3
60 N. Carolina 102.9 102.0 102.0 102.3
61 Syracuse 102.0 100.8 101.1 101.3
62 Colo. State 101.3 100.3 101.1 100.9
63 Navy 100.2 100.8 100.4 100.4
64 Minnesota 100.3 101.2 99.2 100.2
65 Florida Atlantic 99.0 100.7 100.7 100.1
66 Vanderbilt 100.8 99.8 99.7 100.1
67 Army 99.8 99.8 100.1 99.9
68 Troy 99.1 99.2 98.9 99.1
69 Arkansas 99.4 98.5 99.2 99.1
70 Baylor 98.1 99.4 98.2 98.6
71 Fresno St. 98.5 97.3 99.3 98.4
72 SMU 97.5 98.0 97.8 97.8
73 Ohio U 96.3 97.9 97.1 97.1
74 Temple 96.3 96.8 96.7 96.6
75 Tennessee 97.3 95.9 95.3 96.2
76 Northern Illinois 95.7 95.6 96.7 96.0
77 Arkansas St. 95.2 96.3 96.4 96.0
78 Western Michigan 95.8 95.2 96.5 95.8
79 Central Michigan 95.1 95.4 96.0 95.5
80 Nebraska 94.9 95.4 94.4 94.9
81 Wyoming 95.5 94.6 94.6 94.9
82 Eastern Michigan 94.7 94.8 95.1 94.9
83 Maryland 94.5 95.8 93.9 94.7
84 Utah St. 95.0 94.3 94.7 94.7
85 Appalachian St. 94.8 93.6 94.8 94.4
86 Tulane 94.2 94.4 94.6 94.4
87 Tulsa 93.1 92.8 92.7 92.9
88 Air Force 92.2 92.5 92.2 92.3
89 Marshall 90.9 92.3 92.4 91.9
90 Rutgers 91.1 91.1 90.7 91.0
91 Massachusetts 90.8 90.0 91.1 90.6
92 Middle Tennessee 89.2 90.3 90.3 89.9
93 BYU 90.0 89.9 89.9 89.9
94 Nevada 88.9 90.5 90.0 89.8
95 Miami (O) 88.7 90.7 89.9 89.8
96 Oregon St. 90.0 89.9 88.4 89.4
97 U T S A 87.6 90.0 88.4 88.6
98 Buffalo 87.3 89.3 89.3 88.6
99 Akron 87.7 89.8 88.4 88.6
100 N. Texas 87.7 88.9 88.6 88.4
101 Louisiana Tech 87.3 88.9 88.1 88.1
102 Florida Int’l. 87.6 88.1 88.4 88.1
103 Southern Miss. 87.5 88.5 88.1 88.0
104 Illinois 87.9 89.0 86.8 87.9
105 W. Kentucky 87.5 87.9 88.0 87.8
106 U N L V 86.2 87.7 86.3 86.8
107 N. Mexico St. 85.9 84.7 86.0 85.5
108 Connecticut 84.5 86.3 84.8 85.2
109 Cincinnati 83.9 85.7 84.6 84.7
110 New Mexico 84.4 84.4 84.9 84.6
111 East Carolina 83.2 84.5 83.3 83.7
112 Georgia St. 83.1 82.9 82.9 83.0
113 UL-Lafayette 82.2 83.4 82.1 82.6
114 Kansas 81.8 85.1 80.5 82.5
115 UAB 81.6 81.6 83.5 82.2
116 UL-Monroe 82.1 83.0 81.3 82.1
117 Bowling Green 81.5 82.6 81.8 82.0
118 Hawaii 81.8 82.9 81.1 81.9
119 S. Alabama 81.0 83.0 81.2 81.7
120 Old Dominion 80.3 82.7 80.5 81.2
121 Georgia Southern 80.9 82.0 80.4 81.1
122 Idaho 79.1 80.2 79.9 79.7
123 Kent St. 73.9 75.4 74.2 74.5
124 Coastal Carolina 72.7 74.1 73.4 73.4
125 Rice 72.6 74.1 73.0 73.2
126 San Jose St. 72.3 72.4 71.6 72.1
127 Texas St. 70.3 72.5 69.4 70.7
128 Charlotte 69.5 71.8 69.7 70.3
129 U T E P 67.9 70.7 67.9 68.9
130 Ball St. 65.7 67.7 66.4 66.6

PiRate Rating by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Central Florida 8-0 11-0 113.8 115.0 115.1 114.6
South Florida 6-2 9-2 109.0 108.2 109.3 108.8
Temple 4-4 6-6 96.3 96.8 96.7 96.6
Connecticut 2-6 3-9 84.5 86.3 84.8 85.2
Cincinnati 2-6 4-8 83.9 85.7 84.6 84.7
East Carolina 2-6 3-9 83.2 84.5 83.3 83.7
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 7-1 10-1 113.3 112.5 114.1 113.3
Houston 5-3 7-4 102.4 102.1 102.5 102.3
Navy 4-4 6-5 100.2 100.8 100.4 100.4
SMU 4-4 7-5 97.5 98.0 97.8 97.8
Tulane 3-5 5-7 94.2 94.4 94.6 94.4
Tulsa 1-7 2-10 93.1 92.8 92.7 92.9
             
AAC Averages     97.6 98.1 98.0 97.9
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 7-1 11-1 130.0 127.2 129.7 129.0
Louisville 4-4 8-4 117.9 116.9 117.8 117.5
Florida St. 3-5 5-6 117.1 116.1 115.7 116.3
N. Carolina St. 6-2 8-4 115.9 115.1 115.7 115.6
Boston College 4-4 7-5 112.8 112.4 112.9 112.7
Wake Forest 4-4 7-5 112.2 110.5 112.3 111.7
Syracuse 2-6 4-8 102.0 100.8 101.1 101.3
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 7-1 10-1 122.1 120.8 121.1 121.3
Virginia Tech 5-3 9-3 118.7 118.1 118.5 118.4
Duke 3-5 6-6 110.4 109.4 109.5 109.8
Georgia Tech 4-4 5-6 110.2 108.4 108.7 109.1
Pittsburgh 3-5 5-7 108.8 108.1 108.7 108.5
Virginia 3-5 6-6 103.1 102.1 103.4 102.9
N. Carolina 1-7 3-9 102.9 102.0 102.0 102.3
             
ACC Averages     113.2 112.0 112.6 112.6
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 8-1 11-1 126.3 125.0 127.3 126.2
Oklahoma St. 6-3 9-3 120.6 119.9 121.0 120.5
T C U 7-2 10-2 119.8 118.1 120.1 119.3
Iowa State 5-4 7-5 112.5 112.6 113.5 112.9
Texas 5-4 6-6 111.8 112.1 112.4 112.1
Kansas St. 5-4 7-5 111.8 111.8 111.8 111.8
West Virginia 5-4 7-5 108.4 109.0 108.5 108.6
Texas Tech 3-6 6-6 105.2 104.9 104.8 105.0
Baylor 1-8 1-11 98.1 99.4 98.2 98.6
Kansas 0-9 1-11 81.8 85.1 80.5 82.5
             
Big 12 Averages     109.6 109.8 109.8 109.8
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 8-1 10-2 132.0 129.9 132.3 131.4
Penn St. 7-2 10-2 129.0 127.9 129.3 128.7
Michigan 5-4 8-4 115.8 115.5 115.1 115.5
Michigan St. 7-2 9-3 107.5 108.1 108.6 108.1
Indiana 2-7 5-7 105.5 105.6 105.9 105.7
Maryland 2-7 4-8 94.5 95.8 93.9 94.7
Rutgers 3-6 4-8 91.1 91.1 90.7 91.0
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 9-0 12-0 125.7 123.2 124.8 124.6
Northwestern 7-2 9-3 115.6 114.4 115.7 115.2
Iowa 4-5 7-5 114.1 114.4 113.3 114.0
Purdue 4-5 6-6 105.4 105.3 105.9 105.5
Minnesota 2-7 5-7 100.3 101.2 99.2 100.2
Nebraska 3-6 4-8 94.9 95.4 94.4 94.9
Illinois 0-9 2-10 87.9 89.0 86.8 87.9
             
Big Ten Averages     108.5 108.3 108.3 108.4
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida Atlantic 8-0 9-3 99.0 100.7 100.7 100.1
Marshall 4-4 7-5 90.9 92.3 92.4 91.9
Middle Tennessee 4-4 6-6 89.2 90.3 90.3 89.9
Florida Int’l. 5-3 7-4 87.6 88.1 88.4 88.1
W. Kentucky 4-4 6-6 87.5 87.9 88.0 87.8
Old Dominion 3-5 5-7 80.3 82.7 80.5 81.2
Charlotte 1-7 1-11 69.5 71.8 69.7 70.3
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 3-5 6-5 87.6 90.0 88.4 88.6
N. Texas 7-1 9-3 87.7 88.9 88.6 88.4
Louisiana Tech 4-4 6-6 87.3 88.9 88.1 88.1
Southern Miss. 6-2 8-4 87.5 88.5 88.1 88.0
UAB 6-2 8-4 81.6 81.6 83.5 82.2
Rice 1-7 1-11 72.6 74.1 73.0 73.2
U T E P 0-8 0-12 67.9 70.7 67.9 68.9
             
CUSA Averages     84.0 85.5 84.8 84.8
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   9-3 116.0 115.0 116.0 115.6
Army   8-3 99.8 99.8 100.1 99.9
Massachusetts   4-7 90.8 90.0 91.1 90.6
BYU   4-9 90.0 89.9 89.9 89.9
             
Indep. Averages     99.1 98.7 99.3 99.0
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio U 5-3 8-4 96.3 97.9 97.1 97.1
Miami (O) 4-4 5-7 88.7 90.7 89.9 89.8
Akron 6-2 7-5 87.7 89.8 88.4 88.6
Buffalo 4-4 6-6 87.3 89.3 89.3 88.6
Bowling Green 2-6 2-10 81.5 82.6 81.8 82.0
Kent St. 1-7 2-10 73.9 75.4 74.2 74.5
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 7-1 10-2 103.6 103.4 105.6 104.2
Northern Illinois 6-2 8-4 95.7 95.6 96.7 96.0
Western Michigan 4-4 6-6 95.8 95.2 96.5 95.8
Central Michigan 6-2 8-4 95.1 95.4 96.0 95.5
Eastern Michigan 3-5 5-7 94.7 94.8 95.1 94.9
Ball St. 0-8 2-10 65.7 67.7 66.4 66.6
             
MAC Averages     88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 7-1 9-3 106.1 104.8 106.3 105.7
Colo. State 5-3 7-5 101.3 100.3 101.1 100.9
Wyoming 5-3 7-5 95.5 94.6 94.6 94.9
Utah St. 4-4 6-6 95.0 94.3 94.7 94.7
Air Force 4-4 5-7 92.2 92.5 92.2 92.3
New Mexico 1-7 3-9 84.4 84.4 84.9 84.6
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 6-2 10-2 102.4 102.3 103.5 102.7
Fresno St. 7-1 9-3 98.5 97.3 99.3 98.4
Nevada 3-5 3-9 88.9 90.5 90.0 89.8
U N L V 4-4 5-7 86.2 87.7 86.3 86.8
Hawaii 1-8 3-9 81.8 82.9 81.1 81.9
San Jose St. 1-7 2-11 72.3 72.4 71.6 72.1
             
MWC Averages     92.0 92.0 92.1 92.1
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 7-2 10-2 126.6 124.4 126.6 125.9
Stanford 7-2 9-3 120.9 119.2 120.4 120.2
Washington St. 6-3 9-3 113.3 111.2 112.8 112.4
Oregon 4-5 7-5 112.3 110.2 111.7 111.4
California 2-7 5-7 105.3 103.2 103.8 104.1
Oregon St. 0-9 1-11 90.0 89.9 88.4 89.4
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 8-1 10-2 120.2 119.4 119.8 119.8
Utah 3-6 6-6 108.2 108.3 108.3 108.3
Arizona St. 6-3 7-5 107.6 106.4 107.3 107.1
Arizona 5-4 7-5 106.2 105.0 105.1 105.4
U C L A 4-5 6-6 104.1 103.3 103.5 103.6
Colorado 2-7 5-7 104.5 103.4 102.4 103.4
             
Pac-12 Averages     109.9 108.6 109.2 109.3
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 7-1 11-1 128.2 127.8 128.6 128.2
Missouri 4-4 7-5 109.6 107.9 108.9 108.8
S. Carolina 5-3 8-4 107.5 106.8 106.5 106.9
Kentucky 4-4 7-5 106.2 105.5 104.8 105.5
Florida 3-5 4-7 105.7 105.4 105.1 105.4
Vanderbilt 1-7 5-7 100.8 99.8 99.7 100.1
Tennessee 0-8 4-8 97.3 95.9 95.3 96.2
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 7-1 11-1 135.6 132.3 134.3 134.1
Auburn 7-1 10-2 131.3 128.9 131.7 130.6
L S U 6-2 9-3 119.1 116.7 119.6 118.5
Mississippi St. 4-4 8-4 112.4 112.4 112.0 112.3
Texas A&M 4-4 7-5 107.8 105.9 106.9 106.9
Ole Miss 3-5 6-6 106.3 105.0 105.4 105.6
Arkansas 1-7 4-8 99.4 98.5 99.2 99.1
             
SEC Averages     111.9 110.6 111.3 111.3
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Troy 6-1 9-2 99.1 99.2 98.9 99.1
Arkansas St. 6-1 7-3 95.2 96.3 96.4 96.0
Appalachian St. 6-1 7-4 94.8 93.6 94.8 94.4
N. Mexico St. 3-4 5-6 85.9 84.7 86.0 85.5
Georgia St. 5-2 6-4 83.1 82.9 82.9 83.0
UL-Lafayette 4-3 5-6 82.2 83.4 82.1 82.6
UL-Monroe 4-4 4-7 82.1 83.0 81.3 82.1
S. Alabama 3-4 4-7 81.0 83.0 81.2 81.7
Georgia Southern 2-5 2-9 80.9 82.0 80.4 81.1
Idaho 2-5 3-8 79.1 80.2 79.9 79.7
Coastal Carolina 1-6 2-9 72.7 74.1 73.4 73.4
Texas St. 1-7 2-10 70.3 72.5 69.4 70.7
             
Sun Belt Averages     83.9 84.6 83.9 84.1

Pirate Conference Ratings

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 113.2 112.0 112.6 112.6
2 SEC 111.9 110.6 111.3 111.3
3 BIG 12 109.6 109.8 109.8 109.8
4 PAC-12 109.9 108.6 109.2 109.3
5 BIG TEN 108.5 108.3 108.3 108.4
6 INDEP. 99.1 98.7 99.3 99.0
7 AAC 97.6 98.1 98.0 97.9
8 MWC 92.0 92.0 92.1 92.1
9 MAC 88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
10 CUSA 84.0 85.5 84.8 84.8
11 Sun Belt 83.9 84.6 83.9 84.1

For the second year in a row, the ACC finishes the regular season ranked number one.

Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech Arkansas St.
Cure AAC SBC SMU Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC 1 PAC-12 5 Boise St. Arizona St.
New Mexico CUSA MWC North Texas Colorado St.
Camellia MAC SBC Central Mich. Georgia St.
Boca Raton AAC CUSA South Florida Florida Atlantic
Frisco AAC MAC Houston Northern Illinois
Gasparilla AAC CUSA Temple Florida Int’l.
Bahamas CUSA 1 MAC UAB Ohio U
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Akron Wyoming
Birmingham AAC SEC 8-9 [Duke] [Iowa St.]
Armed Forces Army BIG TEN 8 ARMY [Marshall]
Dollar General MAC SBC Toledo Troy
Hawaii AAC MWC Central Florida San Diego St.
Heart of Dallas BIG 12 6 CUSA Texas Tech Southern Miss.
Quick Lane ACC 7-9 BIG TEN 7 Boston College [Western Mich.]
Cactus BIG 12 5 PAC-12 6 Kansas St. Utah
Independence ACC 7-9 SEC 8-9 Florida St. [UTSA]
Pinstripe ACC 3-6 BIG TEN 5 North Carolina St. Purdue
Foster Farms BIG TEN 6 PAC-12 8 [Utah St.] Oregon
Texas BIG 12 3 SEC 2-7 Texas Missouri
Military AAC 7-9 ACC 7-9 Navy Virginia
Camping World ACC 2 BIG 12 2 Notre Dame Oklahoma St.
Holiday BIG TEN 3 PAC-12 2 Northwestern Stanford
Alamo BIG 12 1 PAC-12 1 TCU Washington St.
Belk ACC 3-6 SEC 2-7 Virginia Tech Kentucky
Sun ACC 3-6 Pac-12 Wake Forest Arizona
Music City ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Iowa [UCLA]
Arizona MWC SBC Fresno St. New Mexico St.
Cotton At-large At-large Washington Ohio St.
Taxslayer ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Louisville South Carolina
Liberty BIG 12 4 SEC 2-7 West Va. Texas A&M
Fiesta At-large At-large USC Penn St.
Orange ACC 1 SEC 1/B10 1 Miami (Fla.) Alabama
Outback BIG TEN 2 SEC 2-7 Michigan LSU
Peach At-large At-large Auburn Memphis
Citrus B10 1/ACC 2 SEC 1 Michigan St. Mississippi St.
Rose Playoff Semi-final Wisconsin Oklahoma
Sugar Playoff Semi-final Clemson Georgia
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Oklahoma Clemson
         
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

It’s Championship Week, and there are a flood of interesting games, but perhaps the more interesting aspect of the college game on this last Sunday of November is the coaching carousel.

UCLA is quite happy today with their new hire.  Texas A&M and Nebraska fans believe their status is about to improve with hires that can be considered knock out of the park hires.  Arkansas thinks it can find somebody that will move the needle.  Arizona State might look to the SEC to fill its vacancy, and then there is Tennessee.

The Vols aimed high for a former Tampa Bay Buc coach, dangling possibly $10 million, but instead, the fans believe they have lured in a carp–the wrong ex-Tampa Bay coach.

If rumors are true that the Volunteers have hired Greg Schiano as their next head coach, he of the .500 record at Rutgers when the State U of New Jersey was still a Big East school, and he of many negative intangibles, the Vol Navy may decide to scuttle the boats.

With Dan Mullen, Chris Petersen, Mike Leach, Dana Holgersen, Mike Gundy, Bobby Petrino, Matt Campbell, Jeff Brohm, and even Jim Bob Cooter available (among others), settling for a much maligned ex-head coach that comes with more baggage than Thurston Howell III and Lovie Howell brought with them to that three-hour tour.  The results in Knoxville are likely to be no better than the sailing of the S.S. Minnow.

 

January 18, 2016

PiRate Ratings NFL Conference Championship Preview

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:07 pm

Note: We will have computer simulations for the two Conference Championship games on Friday.

This Week’s Games
         
Week Number: Conference Championships      
Date of Games: 24-Jan    
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Denver New England -0.1 0.1 1.2
Carolina Arizona 2.5 3.3 3.8

November 29, 2015

College Football Preview–December 4-5, 2015

And Down The Stretch They Come
Oklahoma is in the playoffs, short of some major questionable change by the Selection Committee.

Alabama needs to beat a Florida team that is at this point the third best team in the SEC East. The Tide would have to turn the ball over about four times in their own territory before the SEC Championship Game could get close. Should Florida pull the monumental upset, then Alabama is out and Ohio State is in.

The Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game should decide another playoff spot. If Clemson wins, the Tigers should be the #1 seed, while a Tar Heel victory should elevate UNC into the #4 seed spot. There is a chance that Ohio State could steal this spot, but only if Michigan State wins the Big Ten Championship by a lot of points.

Which brings us to the final playoff spot. Either Michigan State or Iowa will get in. If Iowa loses, there is almost no chance the Hawkeyes could still be in the picture, unless Alabama and Clemson both lose, and Iowa loses in overtime or by 1 or 2 points.

As for the rest of the New Year’s 6 Bowls, Notre Dame is a near lock at 10-2. A 10-3 Florida team should still get in, as the SEC is always going to have a team in addition to the Playoffs. If Ohio State does not get in the playoffs via the scenarios above, the Buckeyes will be in the NY6 action along with the loser of the Big Ten Championship Game. Ditto for the ACC Championship loser. The Pac-12 champion will be in the Rose Bowl, and one of the 10-2 Big 12 teams should earn a bid. The final spot will go to the winner of the AAC Championship Game, either Houston or Temple.

The FCS began its 24-team playoff this past weekend, and we have included the scores from the opening round games, as well as this week’s second round games and kickoff times. All games will be available on ESPN3.

What if the FBS did something crazy and extended their playoffs to 24 teams? We will talk about that Tomorrow.

For now, enjoy Championship Week. Next week, there will be just one college game–Army and Navy.

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Oklahoma
3 Clemson
4 Ohio St.
5 Michigan St.
6 Iowa
7 Stanford
8 Notre Dame
9 Florida St.
10 TCU
11 North Carolina
12 Ole Miss
13 Baylor
14 Oklahoma St.
15 Houston
16 LSU
17 Oregon
18 USC
19 Florida
20 Northwestern
21 Utah
22 Michigan
23 Tennessee
24 Wisconsin
25 Georgia
26 Temple
27 Navy
28 Arkansas
29 Memphis
30 West Virginia
31 Mississippi St.
32 UCLA
33 Toledo
34 Western Kentucky
35 Bowling Green
36 Texas A&M
37 BYU
38 California
39 Pittsburgh
40 Miami (Fla.)
41 Washington
42 South Florida
43 Washington St.
44 Texas Tech
45 Louisville
46 Penn St.
47 Appalachian St.
48 San Diego St.
49 Georgia Southern
50 Auburn
51 Arizona St.
52 North Carolina St.
53 Boise St.
54 Virginia Tech
55 Western Michigan
56 Cincinnati
57 Nebraska
58 Southern Miss.
59 Indiana
60 Kansas St.
61 Marshall
62 Duke
63 Northern Illinois
64 Air Force
65 Arkansas St.
66 Minnesota
67 Louisiana Tech
68 Texas
69 Illinois
70 Arizona
71 Central Michigan
72 Ohio
73 Georgia Tech
74 Utah St.
75 Connecticut
76 Missouri
77 East Carolina
78 Middle Tennessee
79 Virginia
80 Iowa St.
81 South Carolina
82 Vanderbilt
83 Akron
84 Tulsa
85 Maryland
86 Colorado St.
87 Syracuse
88 Kentucky
89 New Mexico
90 Colorado
91 San Jose St.
92 Rutgers
93 Boston College
94 Wake Forest
95 Nevada
96 Georgia St.
97 Buffalo
98 Oregon St.
99 Purdue
100 South Alabama
101 Florida Int’l.
102 Troy
103 Louisiana-Lafayette
104 Ball St.
105 Florida Atlantic
106 Rice
107 SMU
108 Idaho
109 Old Dominion
110 Massachusetts
111 UNLV
112 UTEP
113 Fresno St.
114 Tulane
115 Kent St.
116 New Mexico St.
117 Texas St.
118 UTSA
119 Miami (O)
120 Kansas
121 Hawaii
122 Wyoming
123 Army
124 North Texas
125 Louisiana-Monroe
126 Charlotte
127 Eastern Michigan
128 Central Florida

 

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 131.7 129.4 131.8 131.0
2 Oklahoma 130.2 126.5 130.9 129.2
3 Ohio St. 129.0 124.6 129.8 127.8
4 Baylor 126.7 122.8 126.9 125.5
5 Ole Miss 124.7 120.2 123.9 122.9
6 Stanford 123.2 120.3 123.0 122.2
7 North Carolina 121.8 122.4 122.2 122.1
8 Clemson 121.1 121.6 120.5 121.1
9 TCU 123.1 115.6 124.0 120.9
10 Notre Dame 121.2 118.9 120.9 120.3
11 Arkansas 121.3 116.4 120.8 119.5
12 USC 121.0 116.4 120.6 119.3
13 Michigan St. 119.9 117.3 120.0 119.1
14 Tennessee 120.1 116.2 120.2 118.8
15 LSU 119.8 116.4 119.4 118.5
16 UCLA 120.5 114.8 118.9 118.1
17 Florida St. 117.2 118.4 117.1 117.6
18 Oregon 118.6 113.3 118.8 116.9
19 Utah 118.1 112.3 116.3 115.6
20 Mississippi St. 116.5 113.1 116.5 115.4
21 Washington 115.9 112.6 115.8 114.8
22 Michigan 115.8 113.0 115.3 114.7
23 Texas A&M 116.4 112.9 114.4 114.6
24 Georgia 116.1 111.2 115.4 114.2
25 Oklahoma St. 115.1 111.9 114.7 113.9
26 West Virginia 115.6 110.5 115.4 113.8
27 Florida 114.3 111.1 114.0 113.1
28 California 115.0 109.7 114.1 112.9
29 Arizona St. 114.4 109.5 114.0 112.6
30 Iowa 111.5 113.2 112.2 112.3
31 Auburn 113.6 110.4 112.3 112.1
32 Houston 109.3 114.8 111.3 111.8
33 Wisconsin 111.6 111.2 110.8 111.2
34 Virginia Tech 110.7 110.4 110.8 110.6
35 Bowling Green 107.9 112.7 111.0 110.5
36 Western Kentucky 109.4 109.8 110.9 110.0
37 North Carolina St. 109.4 110.4 107.9 109.2
38 Temple 107.4 110.3 109.1 108.9
39 BYU 108.1 108.3 109.3 108.6
40 Louisville 108.0 109.5 107.9 108.5
41 Memphis 107.7 108.8 108.0 108.2
42 San Diego St. 106.0 110.5 107.9 108.1
43 Pittsburgh 107.5 108.1 107.8 107.8
44 Nebraska 108.5 106.9 107.8 107.7
45 Georgia Tech 109.1 106.5 107.5 107.7
46 Washington St. 108.5 105.1 109.3 107.6
47 Navy 105.9 109.9 107.0 107.6
48 Miami 106.1 106.7 107.2 106.7
49 Northwestern 106.4 106.6 106.6 106.5
50 Boise St. 107.3 105.1 107.2 106.5
51 South Carolina 107.3 104.2 106.3 105.9
52 Arizona 107.9 102.4 106.8 105.7
53 Texas Tech 108.1 100.4 108.3 105.6
54 Missouri 106.9 103.4 105.6 105.3
55 Toledo 103.7 105.0 104.9 104.5
56 South Florida 102.1 107.8 103.4 104.4
57 Minnesota 105.1 103.6 104.2 104.3
58 Western Michigan 102.6 103.8 104.0 103.5
59 Penn St. 103.8 103.3 103.0 103.4
60 Colorado 105.3 100.5 103.7 103.2
61 Texas 104.7 100.4 104.1 103.1
62 Cincinnati 102.0 103.9 103.3 103.1
63 Duke 103.0 103.0 102.8 102.9
64 Illinois 104.1 101.9 102.8 102.9
65 Virginia 102.7 101.8 103.1 102.5
66 Georgia Southern 100.7 103.5 102.6 102.3
67 Kansas St. 105.3 96.2 104.6 102.0
68 Indiana 101.0 101.3 101.3 101.2
69 Boston College 100.3 102.6 98.8 100.6
70 Southern Mississippi 98.9 101.5 99.9 100.1
71 Kentucky 101.8 98.4 100.1 100.1
72 Air Force 98.4 101.4 98.1 99.3
73 Iowa St. 100.4 96.3 100.1 98.9
74 Appalachian St. 97.0 100.2 98.9 98.7
75 Louisiana Tech 98.3 98.6 99.1 98.7
76 Vanderbilt 100.2 96.0 99.4 98.5
77 Northern Illinois 96.6 100.4 97.5 98.2
78 Marshall 97.9 98.5 97.6 98.0
79 Wake Forest 96.5 99.3 96.1 97.3
80 Utah St. 97.6 97.8 96.0 97.1
81 Middle Tennessee 96.6 96.2 96.7 96.5
82 East Carolina 94.7 98.5 95.6 96.3
83 Syracuse 95.1 97.9 95.0 96.0
84 Arkansas St. 94.2 95.7 96.3 95.4
85 Purdue 95.1 94.1 93.4 94.2
86 Maryland 94.5 93.4 94.4 94.1
87 Connecticut 91.0 95.5 92.3 92.9
88 San Jose St. 92.2 94.2 92.2 92.9
89 Colorado St. 92.8 93.3 92.3 92.8
90 New Mexico 92.3 93.4 91.8 92.5
91 Central Michigan 90.3 94.2 91.7 92.1
92 Rutgers 93.5 90.8 91.2 91.8
93 Tulsa 89.8 93.9 90.9 91.5
94 Nevada 89.7 93.6 90.0 91.1
95 Ohio 88.8 93.2 90.9 91.0
96 Akron 86.1 92.9 88.4 89.1
97 Oregon St. 88.7 85.3 86.6 86.9
98 Florida Atlantic 84.1 87.5 84.9 85.5
99 Florida International 83.8 86.2 83.9 84.6
100 SMU 83.3 86.9 82.9 84.4
101 Massachusetts 82.6 86.1 83.4 84.0
102 Buffalo 81.1 86.3 81.7 83.0
103 Tulane 82.2 84.7 80.9 82.6
104 UNLV 81.9 83.6 81.9 82.5
105 Georgia St. 81.2 82.9 82.6 82.2
106 Troy 81.2 82.5 81.8 81.8
107 Fresno St. 81.5 84.2 79.7 81.8
108 Army 78.1 85.6 79.4 81.0
109 UL-Lafayette 80.1 82.6 79.8 80.8
110 Wyoming 80.0 81.6 79.2 80.3
111 Rice 78.6 81.4 78.4 79.5
112 Ball St. 78.7 80.7 78.9 79.4
113 UTEP 78.4 81.0 78.2 79.2
114 Old Dominion 76.7 80.6 76.4 77.9
115 Kent St. 77.1 79.0 77.4 77.8
116 Hawaii 77.9 79.0 76.3 77.7
117 UT-San Antonio 76.8 79.2 77.1 77.7
118 Miami (O) 75.4 80.3 76.3 77.3
119 Idaho 74.1 79.1 75.5 76.2
120 South Alabama 74.4 79.1 74.9 76.1
121 Central Florida 74.9 77.8 74.6 75.8
122 Texas St. 74.2 76.9 74.0 75.0
123 Eastern Michigan 71.5 77.6 71.7 73.6
124 New Mexico St. 72.9 74.7 73.0 73.5
125 North Texas 72.4 75.8 72.2 73.5
126 Kansas 75.5 68.7 72.9 72.4
127 UL-Monroe 71.1 70.5 70.7 70.8
128 Charlotte 67.5 69.1 67.0 67.9

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Temple 7-1 10-2 107.4 110.3 109.1 108.9
South Florida 6-2 8-4 102.1 107.8 103.4 104.4
Cincinnati 4-4 7-5 102.0 103.9 103.3 103.1
East Carolina 3-5 5-7 94.7 98.5 95.6 96.3
Connecticut 4-4 6-6 91.0 95.5 92.3 92.9
Central Florida 0-8 0-12 74.9 77.8 74.6 75.8
West Division
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 7-1 11-1 109.3 114.8 111.3 111.8
Memphis 5-3 9-3 107.7 108.8 108.0 108.2
Navy 7-1 9-2 105.9 109.9 107.0 107.6
Tulsa 3-5 6-6 89.8 93.9 90.9 91.5
SMU 1-7 2-10 83.3 86.9 82.9 84.4
Tulane 1-7 3-9 82.2 84.7 80.9 82.6
AAC Averages 95.9 99.4 96.6 97.3
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 8-0 12-0 121.1 121.6 120.5 121.1
Florida St. 6-2 10-2 117.2 118.4 117.1 117.6
North Carolina St. 3-5 7-5 109.4 110.4 107.9 109.2
Louisville 5-3 7-5 108.0 109.5 107.9 108.5
Boston College 0-8 3-9 100.3 102.6 98.8 100.6
Wake Forest 1-7 3-9 96.5 99.3 96.1 97.3
Syracuse 2-6 4-8 95.1 97.9 95.0 96.0
Coastal Division
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
North Carolina 8-0 11-1 121.8 122.4 122.2 122.1
Virginia Tech 4-4 6-6 110.7 110.4 110.8 110.6
Pittsburgh 6-2 8-4 107.5 108.1 107.8 107.8
Georgia Tech 1-7 3-9 109.1 106.5 107.5 107.7
Miami 5-3 8-4 106.1 106.7 107.2 106.7
Duke 4-4 7-5 103.0 103.0 102.8 102.9
Virginia 3-5 4-8 102.7 101.8 103.1 102.5
ACC Averages 107.8 108.5 107.5 107.9
Big 12 Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 8-1 11-1 130.2 126.5 130.9 129.2
Baylor 6-2 9-2 126.7 122.8 126.9 125.5
TCU 7-2 10-2 123.1 115.6 124.0 120.9
Oklahoma St. 7-2 10-2 115.1 111.9 114.7 113.9
West Virginia 4-4 7-4 115.6 110.5 115.4 113.8
Texas Tech 4-5 7-5 108.1 100.4 108.3 105.6
Texas 3-5 4-7 104.7 100.4 104.1 103.1
Kansas St. 2-6 5-6 105.3 96.2 104.6 102.0
Iowa St. 2-7 3-9 100.4 96.3 100.1 98.9
Kansas 0-9 0-12 75.5 68.7 72.9 72.4
Big 12 Averages 110.5 104.9 110.2 108.5
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 7-1 11-1 129.0 124.6 129.8 127.8
Michigan St. 7-1 11-1 119.9 117.3 120.0 119.1
Michigan 6-2 9-3 115.8 113.0 115.3 114.7
Penn St. 4-4 7-5 103.8 103.3 103.0 103.4
Indiana 2-6 6-6 101.0 101.3 101.3 101.2
Maryland 1-7 3-9 94.5 93.4 94.4 94.1
Rutgers 1-7 4-8 93.5 90.8 91.2 91.8
West Division
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Iowa 8-0 12-0 111.5 113.2 112.2 112.3
Wisconsin 6-2 9-3 111.6 111.2 110.8 111.2
Nebraska 3-5 5-7 108.5 106.9 107.8 107.7
Northwestern 6-2 10-2 106.4 106.6 106.6 106.5
Minnesota 2-6 5-7 105.1 103.6 104.2 104.3
Illinois 2-6 5-7 104.1 101.9 102.8 102.9
Purdue 1-7 2-10 95.1 94.1 93.4 94.2
Big Ten Averages 107.1 105.8 106.6 106.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 8-0 10-2 109.4 109.8 110.9 110.0
Marshall 6-2 9-3 97.9 98.5 97.6 98.0
Middle Tennessee 6-2 7-5 96.6 96.2 96.7 96.5
Florida Atlantic 3-5 3-9 84.1 87.5 84.9 85.5
Florida International 3-5 5-7 83.8 86.2 83.9 84.6
Old Dominion 3-5 5-7 76.7 80.6 76.4 77.9
Charlotte 0-8 2-10 67.5 69.1 67.0 67.9
West Division
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Southern Mississippi 7-1 9-3 98.9 101.5 99.9 100.1
Louisiana Tech 6-2 8-4 98.3 98.6 99.1 98.7
Rice 3-5 5-7 78.6 81.4 78.4 79.5
UTEP 3-5 5-7 78.4 81.0 78.2 79.2
UT-San Antonio 3-5 3-9 76.8 79.2 77.1 77.7
North Texas 1-7 1-11 72.4 75.8 72.2 73.5
CUSA Averages 86.1 88.1 86.3 86.8
FBS Independents
Team Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame 10-2 121.2 118.9 120.9 120.3
BYU 9-3 108.1 108.3 109.3 108.6
Army 2-9 78.1 85.6 79.4 81.0
Independents Averages 102.5 104.3 103.2 103.3
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Bowling Green 7-1 9-3 107.9 112.7 111.0 110.5
Ohio 5-3 8-4 88.8 93.2 90.9 91.0
Akron 5-3 7-5 86.1 92.9 88.4 89.1
Massachusetts 2-6 3-9 82.6 86.1 83.4 84.0
Buffalo 3-5 5-7 81.1 86.3 81.7 83.0
Kent St. 2-6 3-9 77.1 79.0 77.4 77.8
Miami (O) 2-6 3-9 75.4 80.3 76.3 77.3
West Division
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 6-2 9-2 103.7 105.0 104.9 104.5
Western Michigan 6-2 7-5 102.6 103.8 104.0 103.5
Northern Illinois 6-2 8-4 96.6 100.4 97.5 98.2
Central Michigan 6-2 7-5 90.3 94.2 91.7 92.1
Ball St. 2-6 3-9 78.7 80.7 78.9 79.4
Eastern Michigan 0-8 1-11 71.5 77.6 71.7 73.6
MAC Averages 87.9 91.7 89.1 89.5
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 5-3 8-4 107.3 105.1 107.2 106.5
Air Force 6-2 8-4 98.4 101.4 98.1 99.3
Utah St. 5-3 6-6 97.6 97.8 96.0 97.1
Colorado St. 5-3 7-5 92.8 93.3 92.3 92.8
New Mexico 5-3 7-5 92.3 93.4 91.8 92.5
Wyoming 2-6 2-10 80.0 81.6 79.2 80.3
West Division
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 8-0 9-3 106.0 110.5 107.9 108.1
San Jose St. 4-4 5-7 92.2 94.2 92.2 92.9
Nevada 4-4 6-6 89.7 93.6 90.0 91.1
UNLV 2-6 3-9 81.9 83.6 81.9 82.5
Fresno St. 2-6 3-9 81.5 84.2 79.7 81.8
Hawaii 0-8 3-10 77.9 79.0 76.3 77.7
MWC Averages 91.5 93.1 91.1 91.9
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Stanford 8-1 10-2 123.2 120.3 123.0 122.2
Oregon 7-2 9-3 118.6 113.3 118.8 116.9
Washington 4-5 6-6 115.9 112.6 115.8 114.8
California 4-5 7-5 115.0 109.7 114.1 112.9
Washington St. 6-3 8-4 108.5 105.1 109.3 107.6
Oregon St. 0-9 2-10 88.7 85.3 86.6 86.9
South Division
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 6-3 8-4 121.0 116.4 120.6 119.3
UCLA 5-4 8-4 120.5 114.8 118.9 118.1
Utah 6-3 9-3 118.1 112.3 116.3 115.6
Arizona St. 4-5 6-6 114.4 109.5 114.0 112.6
Arizona 3-6 6-6 107.9 102.4 106.8 105.7
Colorado 1-8 4-9 105.3 100.5 103.7 103.2
Pac-12 Averages 113.1 108.5 112.3 111.3
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Tennessee 5-3 8-4 120.1 116.2 120.2 118.8
Georgia 5-3 9-3 116.1 111.2 115.4 114.2
Florida 7-1 10-2 114.3 111.1 114.0 113.1
South Carolina 1-7 3-9 107.3 104.2 106.3 105.9
Missouri 1-7 5-7 106.9 103.4 105.6 105.3
Kentucky 2-6 5-7 101.8 98.4 100.1 100.1
Vanderbilt 2-6 4-8 100.2 96.0 99.4 98.5
West Division
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 7-1 11-1 131.7 129.4 131.8 131.0
Ole Miss 6-2 9-3 124.7 120.2 123.9 122.9
Arkansas 5-3 7-5 121.3 116.4 120.8 119.5
LSU 5-3 8-3 119.8 116.4 119.4 118.5
Mississippi St. 4-4 8-4 116.5 113.1 116.5 115.4
Texas A&M 4-4 8-4 116.4 112.9 114.4 114.6
Auburn 2-6 6-6 113.6 110.4 112.3 112.1
SEC Averages 115.1 111.4 114.3 113.6
Sunbelt Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia Southern 6-1 8-3 100.7 103.5 102.6 102.3
Appalachian St. 6-1 9-2 97.0 100.2 98.9 98.7
Arkansas St. 7-0 8-3 94.2 95.7 96.3 95.4
Georgia St. 4-3 5-6 81.2 82.9 82.6 82.2
Troy 2-5 3-8 81.2 82.5 81.8 81.8
UL-Lafayette 3-4 4-7 80.1 82.6 79.8 80.8
Idaho 3-5 4-8 74.1 79.1 75.5 76.2
South Alabama 3-4 5-6 74.4 79.1 74.9 76.1
Texas St. 2-5 3-8 74.2 76.9 74.0 75.0
New Mexico St. 3-4 3-8 72.9 74.7 73.0 73.5
UL-Monroe 0-7 1-11 71.1 70.5 70.7 70.8
Sun Belt Averages 81.9 84.3 82.7 83.0

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 115.1 111.4 114.3 113.6
2 Pac-12 113.1 108.5 112.3 111.3
3 Big 12 110.5 104.9 110.2 108.5
4 ACC 107.8 108.5 107.5 107.9
5 Big Ten 107.1 105.8 106.6 106.5
6 Indep. 102.5 104.3 103.2 103.3
7 AAC 95.9 99.4 96.6 97.3
8 MWC 91.5 93.1 91.1 91.9
9 MAC 87.9 91.7 89.1 89.5
10 CUSA 86.1 88.1 86.3 86.8
11 SBC 81.9 84.3 82.7 83.0

 

FCS Playoffs
1st Round    
Chattanooga 50  
Fordham 20  
     
Citadel 41  
Coastal Carolina 38  
     
Montana 24  
South Dakota St. 17  
     
Northern Iowa 53  
Eastern Illinois 17  
     
2nd Round Dec. 5  ESPN3
Jacksonville St. 10-1 2 PM ET
Chattanooga 9-3  
     
Charleston Sou. 9-2 1 PM ET
Citadel 9-3  
     
James Madison 9-2 1 PM ET
Colgate 8-4  
     
McNeese St. 10-0 7 PM ET
Sam Houston 9-3  
     
North Dakota St. 9-2 3:30 PM ET
Montana 8-4  
     
Portland St. 9-2 10 PM ET
Northern Iowa 8-4  
     
Richmond 8-3 12 PM ET
William & Mary 9-3  
     
Illinois St. 9-2 2 PM ET
Western Illinois 7-5  

 

This Week’s Games
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Friday, December 4        
Bowling Green (n) Northern Illinois 11.3 12.3 13.5
         
Saturday, December 5        
Houston Temple 4.9 7.5 5.2
Baylor Texas 24.5 24.9 25.3
Western Kentucky Southern Miss. 13.5 11.3 14.0
Georgia Southern Georgia St. 21.5 22.6 22.0
Arkansas St. Texas St. 23.0 21.8 25.3
Louisiana-Monroe New Mexico St. 0.7 -1.7 0.2
Kansas St. West Virginia -7.3 -11.3 -7.8
Alabama (n) Florida 17.4 18.3 17.8
Louisiana-Lafayette Troy 1.4 2.6 0.5
South Alabama Appalachian St. -19.6 -18.1 -21.0
Air Force San Diego St. -4.6 -6.1 -6.8
Stanford (n) USC 3.7 5.4 3.9
Iowa (n) Michigan St. -8.4 -4.1 -7.8
Clemson (n) North Carolina -0.7 -0.8 -1.7

BOWL PROJECTIONS

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
Cure AAC SBC South Florida vs. Georgia Southern
New Mexico MWC CUSA New Mexico vs. Arizona *
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC/BYU Utah vs. BYU
Camellia MAC SBC Ohio vs. San Jose St. *
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech vs. Arkansas St.
Miami Beach AAC CUSA Houston vs. Western Kentucky
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Western Michigan vs. Boise St.
Boca Raton AAC MAC Connecticut vs. Toledo
Poinsettia MWC Army Colorado St. vs. Akron *
GoDaddy MAC SBC Bowling Green vs. Appalachian St.
Bahamas CUSA MAC Middle Tennessee vs. Northern Illinois
Hawaii AAC MWC/BYU Tulsa vs. San Diego St.
St. Petersburg AAC CUSA Memphis vs. Southern Miss.
Sun ACC Pac-12 Pittsburgh vs. Washington St.
Heart of Dallas Big 12 CUSA Nevada * vs. Marshall
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Duke vs. Indiana
Independence SEC ACC Missouri vs. Miami (Fla.)
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Nebraska vs. UCLA
Military ACC AAC Virginia Tech vs. Navy
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Central Michigan * vs. Minnesota
Armed Forces Big Ten MWC Washington * vs. Air Force
Russell Athletic ACC Big 12 Florida St. vs. Oklahoma St.
Arizona CUSA MWC California * vs. Utah St.
Texas Big 12 SEC Texas Tech vs. Texas A&M
Birmingham AAC SEC Cincinnati vs. Auburn
Belk ACC SEC North Carolina St. vs. Mississippi St.
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Penn St. vs. Tennessee
Peach N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 Clemson vs. Temple
Cotton Playoff Playoff Oklahoma vs. Michigan St.
Orange Playoff Playoff Alabama vs. North Carolina
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan vs. Oregon
Ouback Big Ten SEC Northwestern vs. Georgia
Citrus Big Ten SEC Wisconsin vs. Ole Miss
Sugar Big 12 SEC TCU vs. Florida
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. vs. Stanford
Fiesta N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 Iowa vs. Notre Dame
TaxSlayer ACC/Big Ten SEC Louisville vs. LSU
Liberty Big 12 SEC West Virginia vs. Arkansas
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Baylor vs. USC
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Kansas St. vs. Arizona St.
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Alabama vs. Oklahoma
           
* = At-large selection due to contracted conference not having an eligible team for this slot
 
Note: We have 4 teams with 5-7 in this week’s bowl projections based on highest APR Scores.
As of yet, no definitive protocol has been officially given to the bowls, and we believe there is
a strong possibility that the bowls will use their influence to invite only those 5-7 teams that will
be the top ones to provide financial success to the bowls. Thus, a San Jose St. may lose out.

January 17, 2014

PiRate Ratings NFL Conference Champion Game Previews–January 19, 2014

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:15 pm

NFL Conference Championship Playoff TV Schedule

Day

Time (ET)

Game

TV

Radio

Sunday, January 19

3:00 PM

New England @ Denver

CBS

Westwood 1

Sunday, January 19

6:30 PM

San Francisco @ Seattle

Fox

Westwood 1

   

To find a local Westwood 1 radio affiliate, check this link:

http://westwoodonesports.com/stations/

Weather Forecasts For Kickoff and Next 3-4 hours

Seattle—Mostly cloudy with virtually no wind.  Temperatures falling from the upper to the lower 40’s during the game.

 

 

Denver—Incredibly beautiful, Spring-like afternoon.  Temperatures starting in the upper 50’s with plentiful sunshine.  Light winds, and temperatures will fall to around 50 by the end of the game.

 

 

PiRate Spreads

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Seattle San Francisco

1.9

1.9

1.9

Denver New England

4.8

6.6

5.2

 

Computer Simulations (100x)

San Francisco at Seattle

San Francisco wins: 54

Seattle wins: 46

Average Margin: San Francisco 22.1  Seattle 20.7 

SF Outlier Win: 31-10

Sea Outlier Win: 24-3

 

New England at Denver

NE Wins: 53

Denver Wins: 47

Average Margin: New England 27.9  Denver 27.6

NE Outlier Win: 41-24

Den Outlier Win: 34-16

 

This is potentially the best pair of conference championship games since 2001-02.

January 18, 2012

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Conference Championship Round–January 22, 2012

This preview comes out a day late this week due to the unavailability of access to the simulator until Wednesday at lunchtime.  Better late than never.

 

Conference Championship Previews

 

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Spreads

 

Home Team in CAPS

 

 

 

 

 

Conference Championships:

 

 

 

 

 

Vegas Line as of Wednesday, January 18, 2012  @ 5:00 PM EST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

NEW ENGLAND Baltimore

10.1

9.9

6.5

7   

50 1/2

SAN FRANCISCO New York Giants

1.7

4.1

0.2

2 1/2

42    

 

 

Computer Simulations

 

Sunday, January 22, 2012

3PM EST

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots

 

100 Simulations: New England 63  Baltimore 37

Avg. Sim Score: New England 26.5  Baltimore 19.7  (46.2 total points)

Vs. Spread: New England 48  Baltimore 47  Push 5

Outlier Score A: New England 38  Baltimore 13

Outlier Score B: Baltimore 24  New England 12

 

6:30 PM EST

New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers

 

100 Simulations: New York Giants 53  San Francisco 47

Avg. Sim Score: New York Giants 23.6  San Francisco 20.9 (44.5 points)

Vs. Spread: New York Giants 82  San Francisco 18

Outlier Score A: New York Giants 37  San Francisco 14

Outlier Score B: San Francisco 27  New York Giants 9

 Note: The PiRate Ratings will begin its NCAA Basketball coverage next week.

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