The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 15, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Conference Championship Games: January 21, 2018

All times given are Eastern Standard

Sunday, January 21, 2018

3:05 PM on CBS

Jacksonville Jaguars (11-6-0) at New England Patriots (14-3-0)

PiRate: New England by 7.6

Mean: New England by 8.0

Bias: New England by 7.4

Total: 44

Estimated Realistic Score: New England 27  Jacksonville 17 

 

6:40 PM on Fox

Minnesota Vikings (14-3-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (14-3-0)

PiRate: Minnesota by 2.0

Mean: Minnesota by 1.2

Bias:  Minnesota by 2.1

Total: 37

Estimated Realistic Score: Minnesota 20  Philadelphia 17

Advertisements

November 26, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for December 1-2 & 9, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads (+Army-Navy for next week)

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
USC (n) Stanford -0.7 0.2 -0.6
Central Florida Memphis 3.5 5.5 4.0
Florida St. UL-Monroe 38.0 36.1 37.4
Toledo (n) Akron 16.0 13.5 17.2
Florida Atlantic North Texas 14.3 14.8 15.0
Oklahoma (n) TCU 6.5 6.9 7.2
Coastal Carolina Georgia Southern -6.2 -5.9 -5.0
Georgia St. Idaho 7.5 6.3 6.5
Appy St. UL-Lafayette 15.7 13.2 15.6
Arkansas St. Troy -0.8 0.0 0.5
Georgia (n) Auburn -3.1 -1.1 -3.1
New Mexico St. South Alabama 7.9 4.7 7.8
Boise St. Fresno St. 10.6 10.5 10.0
Miami (Fla.) (n) Clemson -7.9 -6.4 -8.6
Wisconsin (n) Ohio St. -6.3 -6.7 -7.5
         
Army (n) Navy -0.4 -1.0 -0.3

(n) means neutral site game

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Retrodictive Rankings (Based on past results and not predictive of the future)

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Clemson
2 Wisconsin
3 Alabama
4 Oklahoma
5 Georgia
6 Auburn
7 Ohio St.
8 Central Florida
9 Penn St.
10 Miami (Fla)
11 Washington
12 USC
13 Notre Dame
14 TCU
15 Virginia Tech
16 Stanford
17 Oklahoma St.
18 Michigan St.
19 Memphis
20 Michigan
21 Washington St.
22 Northwestern
23 LSU
24 North Carolina St.
25 Iowa
26 Louisville
27 Mississippi St.
28 Boston College
29 South Florida
30 Iowa St.
31 Boise St.
32 Wake Forest
33 Toledo
34 South Carolina
35 San Diego St.
36 Oregon
37 Florida Atlantic
38 Florida St.
39 Arizona St.
40 Texas A&M
41 Texas
42 West Virginia
43 Purdue
44 Georgia Tech
45 Kansas St.
46 Missouri
47 Arizona
48 Fresno St.
49 UCLA
50 Navy
51 Troy
52 Houston
53 Texas Tech
54 Utah
55 Army
56 Kentucky
57 Duke
58 SMU
59 Northern Illinois
60 Indiana
61 Virginia
62 North Texas
63 California
64 Ole Miss
65 Ohio
66 Pittsburgh
67 Central Michigan
68 Minnesota
69 Florida
70 Syracuse
71 Maryland
72 Wyoming
73 Marshall
74 Colorado
75 Colorado St.
76 Temple
77 Nebraska
78 Western Michigan
79 Tulane
80 Arkansas St.
81 Akron
82 Appalachian St.
83 Southern Miss.
84 Florida Int’l.
85 Vanderbilt
86 Buffalo
87 Arkansas
88 UAB
89 Tennessee
90 Utah St.
91 North Carolina
92 Eastern Michigan
93 Rutgers
94 Air Force
95 Louisiana Tech
96 Middle Tennessee
97 UTSA
98 Miami (O)
99 Georgia St.
100 Cincinnati
101 Western Kentucky
102 Tulsa
103 UNLV
104 Baylor
105 Massachusetts
106 East Carolina
107 New Mexico St.
108 BYU
109 Nevada
110 Connecticut
111 UL-Monroe
112 Illinois
113 Old Dominion
114 UL-Lafayette
115 Bowling Green
116 South Alabama
117 New Mexico
118 Idaho
119 Oregon St.
120 Hawaii
121 Georgia Southern
122 Kansas
123 Kent St.
124 Coastal Carolina
125 Ball St.
126 Rice
127 Charlotte
128 Texas St.
129 San Jose St.
130 UTEP

Predictive Ratings (Forward looking for the next game on the schedule)

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 135.6 132.3 134.3 134.1
2 Ohio St. 132.0 129.9 132.3 131.4
3 Auburn 131.3 128.9 131.7 130.6
4 Clemson 130.0 127.2 129.7 129.0
5 Penn St. 129.0 127.9 129.3 128.7
6 Georgia 128.2 127.8 128.6 128.2
7 Oklahoma 126.3 125.0 127.3 126.2
8 Washington 126.6 124.4 126.6 125.9
9 Wisconsin 125.7 123.2 124.8 124.6
10 Miami 122.1 120.8 121.1 121.3
11 Oklahoma St. 120.6 119.9 121.0 120.5
12 Stanford 120.9 119.2 120.4 120.2
13 U S C 120.2 119.4 119.8 119.8
14 T C U 119.8 118.1 120.1 119.3
15 L S U 119.1 116.7 119.6 118.5
16 Virginia Tech 118.7 118.1 118.5 118.4
17 Louisville 117.9 116.9 117.8 117.5
18 Florida St. 117.1 116.1 115.7 116.3
19 Notre Dame 116.0 115.0 116.0 115.6
20 N. Carolina St. 115.9 115.1 115.7 115.6
21 Michigan 115.8 115.5 115.1 115.5
22 Northwestern 115.6 114.4 115.7 115.2
23 Central Florida 113.8 115.0 115.1 114.6
24 Iowa 114.1 114.4 113.3 114.0
25 Memphis 113.3 112.5 114.1 113.3
26 Iowa State 112.5 112.6 113.5 112.9
27 Boston College 112.8 112.4 112.9 112.7
28 Washington St. 113.3 111.2 112.8 112.4
29 Mississippi St. 112.4 112.4 112.0 112.3
30 Texas 111.8 112.1 112.4 112.1
31 Kansas St. 111.8 111.8 111.8 111.8
32 Wake Forest 112.2 110.5 112.3 111.7
33 Oregon 112.3 110.2 111.7 111.4
34 Duke 110.4 109.4 109.5 109.8
35 Georgia Tech 110.2 108.4 108.7 109.1
36 South Florida 109.0 108.2 109.3 108.8
37 Missouri 109.6 107.9 108.9 108.8
38 West Virginia 108.4 109.0 108.5 108.6
39 Pittsburgh 108.8 108.1 108.7 108.5
40 Utah 108.2 108.3 108.3 108.3
41 Michigan St. 107.5 108.1 108.6 108.1
42 Arizona St. 107.6 106.4 107.3 107.1
43 S. Carolina 107.5 106.8 106.5 106.9
44 Texas A&M 107.8 105.9 106.9 106.9
45 Boise St. 106.1 104.8 106.3 105.7
46 Indiana 105.5 105.6 105.9 105.7
47 Ole Miss 106.3 105.0 105.4 105.6
48 Purdue 105.4 105.3 105.9 105.5
49 Kentucky 106.2 105.5 104.8 105.5
50 Arizona 106.2 105.0 105.1 105.4
51 Florida 105.7 105.4 105.1 105.4
52 Texas Tech 105.2 104.9 104.8 105.0
53 Toledo 103.6 103.4 105.6 104.2
54 California 105.3 103.2 103.8 104.1
55 U C L A 104.1 103.3 103.5 103.6
56 Colorado 104.5 103.4 102.4 103.4
57 Virginia 103.1 102.1 103.4 102.9
58 San Diego St. 102.4 102.3 103.5 102.7
59 Houston 102.4 102.1 102.5 102.3
60 N. Carolina 102.9 102.0 102.0 102.3
61 Syracuse 102.0 100.8 101.1 101.3
62 Colo. State 101.3 100.3 101.1 100.9
63 Navy 100.2 100.8 100.4 100.4
64 Minnesota 100.3 101.2 99.2 100.2
65 Florida Atlantic 99.0 100.7 100.7 100.1
66 Vanderbilt 100.8 99.8 99.7 100.1
67 Army 99.8 99.8 100.1 99.9
68 Troy 99.1 99.2 98.9 99.1
69 Arkansas 99.4 98.5 99.2 99.1
70 Baylor 98.1 99.4 98.2 98.6
71 Fresno St. 98.5 97.3 99.3 98.4
72 SMU 97.5 98.0 97.8 97.8
73 Ohio U 96.3 97.9 97.1 97.1
74 Temple 96.3 96.8 96.7 96.6
75 Tennessee 97.3 95.9 95.3 96.2
76 Northern Illinois 95.7 95.6 96.7 96.0
77 Arkansas St. 95.2 96.3 96.4 96.0
78 Western Michigan 95.8 95.2 96.5 95.8
79 Central Michigan 95.1 95.4 96.0 95.5
80 Nebraska 94.9 95.4 94.4 94.9
81 Wyoming 95.5 94.6 94.6 94.9
82 Eastern Michigan 94.7 94.8 95.1 94.9
83 Maryland 94.5 95.8 93.9 94.7
84 Utah St. 95.0 94.3 94.7 94.7
85 Appalachian St. 94.8 93.6 94.8 94.4
86 Tulane 94.2 94.4 94.6 94.4
87 Tulsa 93.1 92.8 92.7 92.9
88 Air Force 92.2 92.5 92.2 92.3
89 Marshall 90.9 92.3 92.4 91.9
90 Rutgers 91.1 91.1 90.7 91.0
91 Massachusetts 90.8 90.0 91.1 90.6
92 Middle Tennessee 89.2 90.3 90.3 89.9
93 BYU 90.0 89.9 89.9 89.9
94 Nevada 88.9 90.5 90.0 89.8
95 Miami (O) 88.7 90.7 89.9 89.8
96 Oregon St. 90.0 89.9 88.4 89.4
97 U T S A 87.6 90.0 88.4 88.6
98 Buffalo 87.3 89.3 89.3 88.6
99 Akron 87.7 89.8 88.4 88.6
100 N. Texas 87.7 88.9 88.6 88.4
101 Louisiana Tech 87.3 88.9 88.1 88.1
102 Florida Int’l. 87.6 88.1 88.4 88.1
103 Southern Miss. 87.5 88.5 88.1 88.0
104 Illinois 87.9 89.0 86.8 87.9
105 W. Kentucky 87.5 87.9 88.0 87.8
106 U N L V 86.2 87.7 86.3 86.8
107 N. Mexico St. 85.9 84.7 86.0 85.5
108 Connecticut 84.5 86.3 84.8 85.2
109 Cincinnati 83.9 85.7 84.6 84.7
110 New Mexico 84.4 84.4 84.9 84.6
111 East Carolina 83.2 84.5 83.3 83.7
112 Georgia St. 83.1 82.9 82.9 83.0
113 UL-Lafayette 82.2 83.4 82.1 82.6
114 Kansas 81.8 85.1 80.5 82.5
115 UAB 81.6 81.6 83.5 82.2
116 UL-Monroe 82.1 83.0 81.3 82.1
117 Bowling Green 81.5 82.6 81.8 82.0
118 Hawaii 81.8 82.9 81.1 81.9
119 S. Alabama 81.0 83.0 81.2 81.7
120 Old Dominion 80.3 82.7 80.5 81.2
121 Georgia Southern 80.9 82.0 80.4 81.1
122 Idaho 79.1 80.2 79.9 79.7
123 Kent St. 73.9 75.4 74.2 74.5
124 Coastal Carolina 72.7 74.1 73.4 73.4
125 Rice 72.6 74.1 73.0 73.2
126 San Jose St. 72.3 72.4 71.6 72.1
127 Texas St. 70.3 72.5 69.4 70.7
128 Charlotte 69.5 71.8 69.7 70.3
129 U T E P 67.9 70.7 67.9 68.9
130 Ball St. 65.7 67.7 66.4 66.6

PiRate Rating by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Central Florida 8-0 11-0 113.8 115.0 115.1 114.6
South Florida 6-2 9-2 109.0 108.2 109.3 108.8
Temple 4-4 6-6 96.3 96.8 96.7 96.6
Connecticut 2-6 3-9 84.5 86.3 84.8 85.2
Cincinnati 2-6 4-8 83.9 85.7 84.6 84.7
East Carolina 2-6 3-9 83.2 84.5 83.3 83.7
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 7-1 10-1 113.3 112.5 114.1 113.3
Houston 5-3 7-4 102.4 102.1 102.5 102.3
Navy 4-4 6-5 100.2 100.8 100.4 100.4
SMU 4-4 7-5 97.5 98.0 97.8 97.8
Tulane 3-5 5-7 94.2 94.4 94.6 94.4
Tulsa 1-7 2-10 93.1 92.8 92.7 92.9
             
AAC Averages     97.6 98.1 98.0 97.9
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 7-1 11-1 130.0 127.2 129.7 129.0
Louisville 4-4 8-4 117.9 116.9 117.8 117.5
Florida St. 3-5 5-6 117.1 116.1 115.7 116.3
N. Carolina St. 6-2 8-4 115.9 115.1 115.7 115.6
Boston College 4-4 7-5 112.8 112.4 112.9 112.7
Wake Forest 4-4 7-5 112.2 110.5 112.3 111.7
Syracuse 2-6 4-8 102.0 100.8 101.1 101.3
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 7-1 10-1 122.1 120.8 121.1 121.3
Virginia Tech 5-3 9-3 118.7 118.1 118.5 118.4
Duke 3-5 6-6 110.4 109.4 109.5 109.8
Georgia Tech 4-4 5-6 110.2 108.4 108.7 109.1
Pittsburgh 3-5 5-7 108.8 108.1 108.7 108.5
Virginia 3-5 6-6 103.1 102.1 103.4 102.9
N. Carolina 1-7 3-9 102.9 102.0 102.0 102.3
             
ACC Averages     113.2 112.0 112.6 112.6
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 8-1 11-1 126.3 125.0 127.3 126.2
Oklahoma St. 6-3 9-3 120.6 119.9 121.0 120.5
T C U 7-2 10-2 119.8 118.1 120.1 119.3
Iowa State 5-4 7-5 112.5 112.6 113.5 112.9
Texas 5-4 6-6 111.8 112.1 112.4 112.1
Kansas St. 5-4 7-5 111.8 111.8 111.8 111.8
West Virginia 5-4 7-5 108.4 109.0 108.5 108.6
Texas Tech 3-6 6-6 105.2 104.9 104.8 105.0
Baylor 1-8 1-11 98.1 99.4 98.2 98.6
Kansas 0-9 1-11 81.8 85.1 80.5 82.5
             
Big 12 Averages     109.6 109.8 109.8 109.8
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 8-1 10-2 132.0 129.9 132.3 131.4
Penn St. 7-2 10-2 129.0 127.9 129.3 128.7
Michigan 5-4 8-4 115.8 115.5 115.1 115.5
Michigan St. 7-2 9-3 107.5 108.1 108.6 108.1
Indiana 2-7 5-7 105.5 105.6 105.9 105.7
Maryland 2-7 4-8 94.5 95.8 93.9 94.7
Rutgers 3-6 4-8 91.1 91.1 90.7 91.0
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 9-0 12-0 125.7 123.2 124.8 124.6
Northwestern 7-2 9-3 115.6 114.4 115.7 115.2
Iowa 4-5 7-5 114.1 114.4 113.3 114.0
Purdue 4-5 6-6 105.4 105.3 105.9 105.5
Minnesota 2-7 5-7 100.3 101.2 99.2 100.2
Nebraska 3-6 4-8 94.9 95.4 94.4 94.9
Illinois 0-9 2-10 87.9 89.0 86.8 87.9
             
Big Ten Averages     108.5 108.3 108.3 108.4
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida Atlantic 8-0 9-3 99.0 100.7 100.7 100.1
Marshall 4-4 7-5 90.9 92.3 92.4 91.9
Middle Tennessee 4-4 6-6 89.2 90.3 90.3 89.9
Florida Int’l. 5-3 7-4 87.6 88.1 88.4 88.1
W. Kentucky 4-4 6-6 87.5 87.9 88.0 87.8
Old Dominion 3-5 5-7 80.3 82.7 80.5 81.2
Charlotte 1-7 1-11 69.5 71.8 69.7 70.3
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 3-5 6-5 87.6 90.0 88.4 88.6
N. Texas 7-1 9-3 87.7 88.9 88.6 88.4
Louisiana Tech 4-4 6-6 87.3 88.9 88.1 88.1
Southern Miss. 6-2 8-4 87.5 88.5 88.1 88.0
UAB 6-2 8-4 81.6 81.6 83.5 82.2
Rice 1-7 1-11 72.6 74.1 73.0 73.2
U T E P 0-8 0-12 67.9 70.7 67.9 68.9
             
CUSA Averages     84.0 85.5 84.8 84.8
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   9-3 116.0 115.0 116.0 115.6
Army   8-3 99.8 99.8 100.1 99.9
Massachusetts   4-7 90.8 90.0 91.1 90.6
BYU   4-9 90.0 89.9 89.9 89.9
             
Indep. Averages     99.1 98.7 99.3 99.0
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio U 5-3 8-4 96.3 97.9 97.1 97.1
Miami (O) 4-4 5-7 88.7 90.7 89.9 89.8
Akron 6-2 7-5 87.7 89.8 88.4 88.6
Buffalo 4-4 6-6 87.3 89.3 89.3 88.6
Bowling Green 2-6 2-10 81.5 82.6 81.8 82.0
Kent St. 1-7 2-10 73.9 75.4 74.2 74.5
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 7-1 10-2 103.6 103.4 105.6 104.2
Northern Illinois 6-2 8-4 95.7 95.6 96.7 96.0
Western Michigan 4-4 6-6 95.8 95.2 96.5 95.8
Central Michigan 6-2 8-4 95.1 95.4 96.0 95.5
Eastern Michigan 3-5 5-7 94.7 94.8 95.1 94.9
Ball St. 0-8 2-10 65.7 67.7 66.4 66.6
             
MAC Averages     88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 7-1 9-3 106.1 104.8 106.3 105.7
Colo. State 5-3 7-5 101.3 100.3 101.1 100.9
Wyoming 5-3 7-5 95.5 94.6 94.6 94.9
Utah St. 4-4 6-6 95.0 94.3 94.7 94.7
Air Force 4-4 5-7 92.2 92.5 92.2 92.3
New Mexico 1-7 3-9 84.4 84.4 84.9 84.6
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 6-2 10-2 102.4 102.3 103.5 102.7
Fresno St. 7-1 9-3 98.5 97.3 99.3 98.4
Nevada 3-5 3-9 88.9 90.5 90.0 89.8
U N L V 4-4 5-7 86.2 87.7 86.3 86.8
Hawaii 1-8 3-9 81.8 82.9 81.1 81.9
San Jose St. 1-7 2-11 72.3 72.4 71.6 72.1
             
MWC Averages     92.0 92.0 92.1 92.1
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 7-2 10-2 126.6 124.4 126.6 125.9
Stanford 7-2 9-3 120.9 119.2 120.4 120.2
Washington St. 6-3 9-3 113.3 111.2 112.8 112.4
Oregon 4-5 7-5 112.3 110.2 111.7 111.4
California 2-7 5-7 105.3 103.2 103.8 104.1
Oregon St. 0-9 1-11 90.0 89.9 88.4 89.4
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 8-1 10-2 120.2 119.4 119.8 119.8
Utah 3-6 6-6 108.2 108.3 108.3 108.3
Arizona St. 6-3 7-5 107.6 106.4 107.3 107.1
Arizona 5-4 7-5 106.2 105.0 105.1 105.4
U C L A 4-5 6-6 104.1 103.3 103.5 103.6
Colorado 2-7 5-7 104.5 103.4 102.4 103.4
             
Pac-12 Averages     109.9 108.6 109.2 109.3
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 7-1 11-1 128.2 127.8 128.6 128.2
Missouri 4-4 7-5 109.6 107.9 108.9 108.8
S. Carolina 5-3 8-4 107.5 106.8 106.5 106.9
Kentucky 4-4 7-5 106.2 105.5 104.8 105.5
Florida 3-5 4-7 105.7 105.4 105.1 105.4
Vanderbilt 1-7 5-7 100.8 99.8 99.7 100.1
Tennessee 0-8 4-8 97.3 95.9 95.3 96.2
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 7-1 11-1 135.6 132.3 134.3 134.1
Auburn 7-1 10-2 131.3 128.9 131.7 130.6
L S U 6-2 9-3 119.1 116.7 119.6 118.5
Mississippi St. 4-4 8-4 112.4 112.4 112.0 112.3
Texas A&M 4-4 7-5 107.8 105.9 106.9 106.9
Ole Miss 3-5 6-6 106.3 105.0 105.4 105.6
Arkansas 1-7 4-8 99.4 98.5 99.2 99.1
             
SEC Averages     111.9 110.6 111.3 111.3
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Troy 6-1 9-2 99.1 99.2 98.9 99.1
Arkansas St. 6-1 7-3 95.2 96.3 96.4 96.0
Appalachian St. 6-1 7-4 94.8 93.6 94.8 94.4
N. Mexico St. 3-4 5-6 85.9 84.7 86.0 85.5
Georgia St. 5-2 6-4 83.1 82.9 82.9 83.0
UL-Lafayette 4-3 5-6 82.2 83.4 82.1 82.6
UL-Monroe 4-4 4-7 82.1 83.0 81.3 82.1
S. Alabama 3-4 4-7 81.0 83.0 81.2 81.7
Georgia Southern 2-5 2-9 80.9 82.0 80.4 81.1
Idaho 2-5 3-8 79.1 80.2 79.9 79.7
Coastal Carolina 1-6 2-9 72.7 74.1 73.4 73.4
Texas St. 1-7 2-10 70.3 72.5 69.4 70.7
             
Sun Belt Averages     83.9 84.6 83.9 84.1

Pirate Conference Ratings

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 113.2 112.0 112.6 112.6
2 SEC 111.9 110.6 111.3 111.3
3 BIG 12 109.6 109.8 109.8 109.8
4 PAC-12 109.9 108.6 109.2 109.3
5 BIG TEN 108.5 108.3 108.3 108.4
6 INDEP. 99.1 98.7 99.3 99.0
7 AAC 97.6 98.1 98.0 97.9
8 MWC 92.0 92.0 92.1 92.1
9 MAC 88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
10 CUSA 84.0 85.5 84.8 84.8
11 Sun Belt 83.9 84.6 83.9 84.1

For the second year in a row, the ACC finishes the regular season ranked number one.

Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech Arkansas St.
Cure AAC SBC SMU Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC 1 PAC-12 5 Boise St. Arizona St.
New Mexico CUSA MWC North Texas Colorado St.
Camellia MAC SBC Central Mich. Georgia St.
Boca Raton AAC CUSA South Florida Florida Atlantic
Frisco AAC MAC Houston Northern Illinois
Gasparilla AAC CUSA Temple Florida Int’l.
Bahamas CUSA 1 MAC UAB Ohio U
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Akron Wyoming
Birmingham AAC SEC 8-9 [Duke] [Iowa St.]
Armed Forces Army BIG TEN 8 ARMY [Marshall]
Dollar General MAC SBC Toledo Troy
Hawaii AAC MWC Central Florida San Diego St.
Heart of Dallas BIG 12 6 CUSA Texas Tech Southern Miss.
Quick Lane ACC 7-9 BIG TEN 7 Boston College [Western Mich.]
Cactus BIG 12 5 PAC-12 6 Kansas St. Utah
Independence ACC 7-9 SEC 8-9 Florida St. [UTSA]
Pinstripe ACC 3-6 BIG TEN 5 North Carolina St. Purdue
Foster Farms BIG TEN 6 PAC-12 8 [Utah St.] Oregon
Texas BIG 12 3 SEC 2-7 Texas Missouri
Military AAC 7-9 ACC 7-9 Navy Virginia
Camping World ACC 2 BIG 12 2 Notre Dame Oklahoma St.
Holiday BIG TEN 3 PAC-12 2 Northwestern Stanford
Alamo BIG 12 1 PAC-12 1 TCU Washington St.
Belk ACC 3-6 SEC 2-7 Virginia Tech Kentucky
Sun ACC 3-6 Pac-12 Wake Forest Arizona
Music City ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Iowa [UCLA]
Arizona MWC SBC Fresno St. New Mexico St.
Cotton At-large At-large Washington Ohio St.
Taxslayer ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Louisville South Carolina
Liberty BIG 12 4 SEC 2-7 West Va. Texas A&M
Fiesta At-large At-large USC Penn St.
Orange ACC 1 SEC 1/B10 1 Miami (Fla.) Alabama
Outback BIG TEN 2 SEC 2-7 Michigan LSU
Peach At-large At-large Auburn Memphis
Citrus B10 1/ACC 2 SEC 1 Michigan St. Mississippi St.
Rose Playoff Semi-final Wisconsin Oklahoma
Sugar Playoff Semi-final Clemson Georgia
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Oklahoma Clemson
         
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

It’s Championship Week, and there are a flood of interesting games, but perhaps the more interesting aspect of the college game on this last Sunday of November is the coaching carousel.

UCLA is quite happy today with their new hire.  Texas A&M and Nebraska fans believe their status is about to improve with hires that can be considered knock out of the park hires.  Arkansas thinks it can find somebody that will move the needle.  Arizona State might look to the SEC to fill its vacancy, and then there is Tennessee.

The Vols aimed high for a former Tampa Bay Buc coach, dangling possibly $10 million, but instead, the fans believe they have lured in a carp–the wrong ex-Tampa Bay coach.

If rumors are true that the Volunteers have hired Greg Schiano as their next head coach, he of the .500 record at Rutgers when the State U of New Jersey was still a Big East school, and he of many negative intangibles, the Vol Navy may decide to scuttle the boats.

With Dan Mullen, Chris Petersen, Mike Leach, Dana Holgersen, Mike Gundy, Bobby Petrino, Matt Campbell, Jeff Brohm, and even Jim Bob Cooter available (among others), settling for a much maligned ex-head coach that comes with more baggage than Thurston Howell III and Lovie Howell brought with them to that three-hour tour.  The results in Knoxville are likely to be no better than the sailing of the S.S. Minnow.

 

January 18, 2016

PiRate Ratings NFL Conference Championship Preview

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:07 pm

Note: We will have computer simulations for the two Conference Championship games on Friday.

This Week’s Games
         
Week Number: Conference Championships      
Date of Games: 24-Jan    
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Denver New England -0.1 0.1 1.2
Carolina Arizona 2.5 3.3 3.8

November 29, 2015

College Football Preview–December 4-5, 2015

And Down The Stretch They Come
Oklahoma is in the playoffs, short of some major questionable change by the Selection Committee.

Alabama needs to beat a Florida team that is at this point the third best team in the SEC East. The Tide would have to turn the ball over about four times in their own territory before the SEC Championship Game could get close. Should Florida pull the monumental upset, then Alabama is out and Ohio State is in.

The Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game should decide another playoff spot. If Clemson wins, the Tigers should be the #1 seed, while a Tar Heel victory should elevate UNC into the #4 seed spot. There is a chance that Ohio State could steal this spot, but only if Michigan State wins the Big Ten Championship by a lot of points.

Which brings us to the final playoff spot. Either Michigan State or Iowa will get in. If Iowa loses, there is almost no chance the Hawkeyes could still be in the picture, unless Alabama and Clemson both lose, and Iowa loses in overtime or by 1 or 2 points.

As for the rest of the New Year’s 6 Bowls, Notre Dame is a near lock at 10-2. A 10-3 Florida team should still get in, as the SEC is always going to have a team in addition to the Playoffs. If Ohio State does not get in the playoffs via the scenarios above, the Buckeyes will be in the NY6 action along with the loser of the Big Ten Championship Game. Ditto for the ACC Championship loser. The Pac-12 champion will be in the Rose Bowl, and one of the 10-2 Big 12 teams should earn a bid. The final spot will go to the winner of the AAC Championship Game, either Houston or Temple.

The FCS began its 24-team playoff this past weekend, and we have included the scores from the opening round games, as well as this week’s second round games and kickoff times. All games will be available on ESPN3.

What if the FBS did something crazy and extended their playoffs to 24 teams? We will talk about that Tomorrow.

For now, enjoy Championship Week. Next week, there will be just one college game–Army and Navy.

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Oklahoma
3 Clemson
4 Ohio St.
5 Michigan St.
6 Iowa
7 Stanford
8 Notre Dame
9 Florida St.
10 TCU
11 North Carolina
12 Ole Miss
13 Baylor
14 Oklahoma St.
15 Houston
16 LSU
17 Oregon
18 USC
19 Florida
20 Northwestern
21 Utah
22 Michigan
23 Tennessee
24 Wisconsin
25 Georgia
26 Temple
27 Navy
28 Arkansas
29 Memphis
30 West Virginia
31 Mississippi St.
32 UCLA
33 Toledo
34 Western Kentucky
35 Bowling Green
36 Texas A&M
37 BYU
38 California
39 Pittsburgh
40 Miami (Fla.)
41 Washington
42 South Florida
43 Washington St.
44 Texas Tech
45 Louisville
46 Penn St.
47 Appalachian St.
48 San Diego St.
49 Georgia Southern
50 Auburn
51 Arizona St.
52 North Carolina St.
53 Boise St.
54 Virginia Tech
55 Western Michigan
56 Cincinnati
57 Nebraska
58 Southern Miss.
59 Indiana
60 Kansas St.
61 Marshall
62 Duke
63 Northern Illinois
64 Air Force
65 Arkansas St.
66 Minnesota
67 Louisiana Tech
68 Texas
69 Illinois
70 Arizona
71 Central Michigan
72 Ohio
73 Georgia Tech
74 Utah St.
75 Connecticut
76 Missouri
77 East Carolina
78 Middle Tennessee
79 Virginia
80 Iowa St.
81 South Carolina
82 Vanderbilt
83 Akron
84 Tulsa
85 Maryland
86 Colorado St.
87 Syracuse
88 Kentucky
89 New Mexico
90 Colorado
91 San Jose St.
92 Rutgers
93 Boston College
94 Wake Forest
95 Nevada
96 Georgia St.
97 Buffalo
98 Oregon St.
99 Purdue
100 South Alabama
101 Florida Int’l.
102 Troy
103 Louisiana-Lafayette
104 Ball St.
105 Florida Atlantic
106 Rice
107 SMU
108 Idaho
109 Old Dominion
110 Massachusetts
111 UNLV
112 UTEP
113 Fresno St.
114 Tulane
115 Kent St.
116 New Mexico St.
117 Texas St.
118 UTSA
119 Miami (O)
120 Kansas
121 Hawaii
122 Wyoming
123 Army
124 North Texas
125 Louisiana-Monroe
126 Charlotte
127 Eastern Michigan
128 Central Florida

 

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 131.7 129.4 131.8 131.0
2 Oklahoma 130.2 126.5 130.9 129.2
3 Ohio St. 129.0 124.6 129.8 127.8
4 Baylor 126.7 122.8 126.9 125.5
5 Ole Miss 124.7 120.2 123.9 122.9
6 Stanford 123.2 120.3 123.0 122.2
7 North Carolina 121.8 122.4 122.2 122.1
8 Clemson 121.1 121.6 120.5 121.1
9 TCU 123.1 115.6 124.0 120.9
10 Notre Dame 121.2 118.9 120.9 120.3
11 Arkansas 121.3 116.4 120.8 119.5
12 USC 121.0 116.4 120.6 119.3
13 Michigan St. 119.9 117.3 120.0 119.1
14 Tennessee 120.1 116.2 120.2 118.8
15 LSU 119.8 116.4 119.4 118.5
16 UCLA 120.5 114.8 118.9 118.1
17 Florida St. 117.2 118.4 117.1 117.6
18 Oregon 118.6 113.3 118.8 116.9
19 Utah 118.1 112.3 116.3 115.6
20 Mississippi St. 116.5 113.1 116.5 115.4
21 Washington 115.9 112.6 115.8 114.8
22 Michigan 115.8 113.0 115.3 114.7
23 Texas A&M 116.4 112.9 114.4 114.6
24 Georgia 116.1 111.2 115.4 114.2
25 Oklahoma St. 115.1 111.9 114.7 113.9
26 West Virginia 115.6 110.5 115.4 113.8
27 Florida 114.3 111.1 114.0 113.1
28 California 115.0 109.7 114.1 112.9
29 Arizona St. 114.4 109.5 114.0 112.6
30 Iowa 111.5 113.2 112.2 112.3
31 Auburn 113.6 110.4 112.3 112.1
32 Houston 109.3 114.8 111.3 111.8
33 Wisconsin 111.6 111.2 110.8 111.2
34 Virginia Tech 110.7 110.4 110.8 110.6
35 Bowling Green 107.9 112.7 111.0 110.5
36 Western Kentucky 109.4 109.8 110.9 110.0
37 North Carolina St. 109.4 110.4 107.9 109.2
38 Temple 107.4 110.3 109.1 108.9
39 BYU 108.1 108.3 109.3 108.6
40 Louisville 108.0 109.5 107.9 108.5
41 Memphis 107.7 108.8 108.0 108.2
42 San Diego St. 106.0 110.5 107.9 108.1
43 Pittsburgh 107.5 108.1 107.8 107.8
44 Nebraska 108.5 106.9 107.8 107.7
45 Georgia Tech 109.1 106.5 107.5 107.7
46 Washington St. 108.5 105.1 109.3 107.6
47 Navy 105.9 109.9 107.0 107.6
48 Miami 106.1 106.7 107.2 106.7
49 Northwestern 106.4 106.6 106.6 106.5
50 Boise St. 107.3 105.1 107.2 106.5
51 South Carolina 107.3 104.2 106.3 105.9
52 Arizona 107.9 102.4 106.8 105.7
53 Texas Tech 108.1 100.4 108.3 105.6
54 Missouri 106.9 103.4 105.6 105.3
55 Toledo 103.7 105.0 104.9 104.5
56 South Florida 102.1 107.8 103.4 104.4
57 Minnesota 105.1 103.6 104.2 104.3
58 Western Michigan 102.6 103.8 104.0 103.5
59 Penn St. 103.8 103.3 103.0 103.4
60 Colorado 105.3 100.5 103.7 103.2
61 Texas 104.7 100.4 104.1 103.1
62 Cincinnati 102.0 103.9 103.3 103.1
63 Duke 103.0 103.0 102.8 102.9
64 Illinois 104.1 101.9 102.8 102.9
65 Virginia 102.7 101.8 103.1 102.5
66 Georgia Southern 100.7 103.5 102.6 102.3
67 Kansas St. 105.3 96.2 104.6 102.0
68 Indiana 101.0 101.3 101.3 101.2
69 Boston College 100.3 102.6 98.8 100.6
70 Southern Mississippi 98.9 101.5 99.9 100.1
71 Kentucky 101.8 98.4 100.1 100.1
72 Air Force 98.4 101.4 98.1 99.3
73 Iowa St. 100.4 96.3 100.1 98.9
74 Appalachian St. 97.0 100.2 98.9 98.7
75 Louisiana Tech 98.3 98.6 99.1 98.7
76 Vanderbilt 100.2 96.0 99.4 98.5
77 Northern Illinois 96.6 100.4 97.5 98.2
78 Marshall 97.9 98.5 97.6 98.0
79 Wake Forest 96.5 99.3 96.1 97.3
80 Utah St. 97.6 97.8 96.0 97.1
81 Middle Tennessee 96.6 96.2 96.7 96.5
82 East Carolina 94.7 98.5 95.6 96.3
83 Syracuse 95.1 97.9 95.0 96.0
84 Arkansas St. 94.2 95.7 96.3 95.4
85 Purdue 95.1 94.1 93.4 94.2
86 Maryland 94.5 93.4 94.4 94.1
87 Connecticut 91.0 95.5 92.3 92.9
88 San Jose St. 92.2 94.2 92.2 92.9
89 Colorado St. 92.8 93.3 92.3 92.8
90 New Mexico 92.3 93.4 91.8 92.5
91 Central Michigan 90.3 94.2 91.7 92.1
92 Rutgers 93.5 90.8 91.2 91.8
93 Tulsa 89.8 93.9 90.9 91.5
94 Nevada 89.7 93.6 90.0 91.1
95 Ohio 88.8 93.2 90.9 91.0
96 Akron 86.1 92.9 88.4 89.1
97 Oregon St. 88.7 85.3 86.6 86.9
98 Florida Atlantic 84.1 87.5 84.9 85.5
99 Florida International 83.8 86.2 83.9 84.6
100 SMU 83.3 86.9 82.9 84.4
101 Massachusetts 82.6 86.1 83.4 84.0
102 Buffalo 81.1 86.3 81.7 83.0
103 Tulane 82.2 84.7 80.9 82.6
104 UNLV 81.9 83.6 81.9 82.5
105 Georgia St. 81.2 82.9 82.6 82.2
106 Troy 81.2 82.5 81.8 81.8
107 Fresno St. 81.5 84.2 79.7 81.8
108 Army 78.1 85.6 79.4 81.0
109 UL-Lafayette 80.1 82.6 79.8 80.8
110 Wyoming 80.0 81.6 79.2 80.3
111 Rice 78.6 81.4 78.4 79.5
112 Ball St. 78.7 80.7 78.9 79.4
113 UTEP 78.4 81.0 78.2 79.2
114 Old Dominion 76.7 80.6 76.4 77.9
115 Kent St. 77.1 79.0 77.4 77.8
116 Hawaii 77.9 79.0 76.3 77.7
117 UT-San Antonio 76.8 79.2 77.1 77.7
118 Miami (O) 75.4 80.3 76.3 77.3
119 Idaho 74.1 79.1 75.5 76.2
120 South Alabama 74.4 79.1 74.9 76.1
121 Central Florida 74.9 77.8 74.6 75.8
122 Texas St. 74.2 76.9 74.0 75.0
123 Eastern Michigan 71.5 77.6 71.7 73.6
124 New Mexico St. 72.9 74.7 73.0 73.5
125 North Texas 72.4 75.8 72.2 73.5
126 Kansas 75.5 68.7 72.9 72.4
127 UL-Monroe 71.1 70.5 70.7 70.8
128 Charlotte 67.5 69.1 67.0 67.9

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Temple 7-1 10-2 107.4 110.3 109.1 108.9
South Florida 6-2 8-4 102.1 107.8 103.4 104.4
Cincinnati 4-4 7-5 102.0 103.9 103.3 103.1
East Carolina 3-5 5-7 94.7 98.5 95.6 96.3
Connecticut 4-4 6-6 91.0 95.5 92.3 92.9
Central Florida 0-8 0-12 74.9 77.8 74.6 75.8
West Division
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 7-1 11-1 109.3 114.8 111.3 111.8
Memphis 5-3 9-3 107.7 108.8 108.0 108.2
Navy 7-1 9-2 105.9 109.9 107.0 107.6
Tulsa 3-5 6-6 89.8 93.9 90.9 91.5
SMU 1-7 2-10 83.3 86.9 82.9 84.4
Tulane 1-7 3-9 82.2 84.7 80.9 82.6
AAC Averages 95.9 99.4 96.6 97.3
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 8-0 12-0 121.1 121.6 120.5 121.1
Florida St. 6-2 10-2 117.2 118.4 117.1 117.6
North Carolina St. 3-5 7-5 109.4 110.4 107.9 109.2
Louisville 5-3 7-5 108.0 109.5 107.9 108.5
Boston College 0-8 3-9 100.3 102.6 98.8 100.6
Wake Forest 1-7 3-9 96.5 99.3 96.1 97.3
Syracuse 2-6 4-8 95.1 97.9 95.0 96.0
Coastal Division
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
North Carolina 8-0 11-1 121.8 122.4 122.2 122.1
Virginia Tech 4-4 6-6 110.7 110.4 110.8 110.6
Pittsburgh 6-2 8-4 107.5 108.1 107.8 107.8
Georgia Tech 1-7 3-9 109.1 106.5 107.5 107.7
Miami 5-3 8-4 106.1 106.7 107.2 106.7
Duke 4-4 7-5 103.0 103.0 102.8 102.9
Virginia 3-5 4-8 102.7 101.8 103.1 102.5
ACC Averages 107.8 108.5 107.5 107.9
Big 12 Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 8-1 11-1 130.2 126.5 130.9 129.2
Baylor 6-2 9-2 126.7 122.8 126.9 125.5
TCU 7-2 10-2 123.1 115.6 124.0 120.9
Oklahoma St. 7-2 10-2 115.1 111.9 114.7 113.9
West Virginia 4-4 7-4 115.6 110.5 115.4 113.8
Texas Tech 4-5 7-5 108.1 100.4 108.3 105.6
Texas 3-5 4-7 104.7 100.4 104.1 103.1
Kansas St. 2-6 5-6 105.3 96.2 104.6 102.0
Iowa St. 2-7 3-9 100.4 96.3 100.1 98.9
Kansas 0-9 0-12 75.5 68.7 72.9 72.4
Big 12 Averages 110.5 104.9 110.2 108.5
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 7-1 11-1 129.0 124.6 129.8 127.8
Michigan St. 7-1 11-1 119.9 117.3 120.0 119.1
Michigan 6-2 9-3 115.8 113.0 115.3 114.7
Penn St. 4-4 7-5 103.8 103.3 103.0 103.4
Indiana 2-6 6-6 101.0 101.3 101.3 101.2
Maryland 1-7 3-9 94.5 93.4 94.4 94.1
Rutgers 1-7 4-8 93.5 90.8 91.2 91.8
West Division
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Iowa 8-0 12-0 111.5 113.2 112.2 112.3
Wisconsin 6-2 9-3 111.6 111.2 110.8 111.2
Nebraska 3-5 5-7 108.5 106.9 107.8 107.7
Northwestern 6-2 10-2 106.4 106.6 106.6 106.5
Minnesota 2-6 5-7 105.1 103.6 104.2 104.3
Illinois 2-6 5-7 104.1 101.9 102.8 102.9
Purdue 1-7 2-10 95.1 94.1 93.4 94.2
Big Ten Averages 107.1 105.8 106.6 106.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 8-0 10-2 109.4 109.8 110.9 110.0
Marshall 6-2 9-3 97.9 98.5 97.6 98.0
Middle Tennessee 6-2 7-5 96.6 96.2 96.7 96.5
Florida Atlantic 3-5 3-9 84.1 87.5 84.9 85.5
Florida International 3-5 5-7 83.8 86.2 83.9 84.6
Old Dominion 3-5 5-7 76.7 80.6 76.4 77.9
Charlotte 0-8 2-10 67.5 69.1 67.0 67.9
West Division
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Southern Mississippi 7-1 9-3 98.9 101.5 99.9 100.1
Louisiana Tech 6-2 8-4 98.3 98.6 99.1 98.7
Rice 3-5 5-7 78.6 81.4 78.4 79.5
UTEP 3-5 5-7 78.4 81.0 78.2 79.2
UT-San Antonio 3-5 3-9 76.8 79.2 77.1 77.7
North Texas 1-7 1-11 72.4 75.8 72.2 73.5
CUSA Averages 86.1 88.1 86.3 86.8
FBS Independents
Team Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame 10-2 121.2 118.9 120.9 120.3
BYU 9-3 108.1 108.3 109.3 108.6
Army 2-9 78.1 85.6 79.4 81.0
Independents Averages 102.5 104.3 103.2 103.3
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Bowling Green 7-1 9-3 107.9 112.7 111.0 110.5
Ohio 5-3 8-4 88.8 93.2 90.9 91.0
Akron 5-3 7-5 86.1 92.9 88.4 89.1
Massachusetts 2-6 3-9 82.6 86.1 83.4 84.0
Buffalo 3-5 5-7 81.1 86.3 81.7 83.0
Kent St. 2-6 3-9 77.1 79.0 77.4 77.8
Miami (O) 2-6 3-9 75.4 80.3 76.3 77.3
West Division
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 6-2 9-2 103.7 105.0 104.9 104.5
Western Michigan 6-2 7-5 102.6 103.8 104.0 103.5
Northern Illinois 6-2 8-4 96.6 100.4 97.5 98.2
Central Michigan 6-2 7-5 90.3 94.2 91.7 92.1
Ball St. 2-6 3-9 78.7 80.7 78.9 79.4
Eastern Michigan 0-8 1-11 71.5 77.6 71.7 73.6
MAC Averages 87.9 91.7 89.1 89.5
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 5-3 8-4 107.3 105.1 107.2 106.5
Air Force 6-2 8-4 98.4 101.4 98.1 99.3
Utah St. 5-3 6-6 97.6 97.8 96.0 97.1
Colorado St. 5-3 7-5 92.8 93.3 92.3 92.8
New Mexico 5-3 7-5 92.3 93.4 91.8 92.5
Wyoming 2-6 2-10 80.0 81.6 79.2 80.3
West Division
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 8-0 9-3 106.0 110.5 107.9 108.1
San Jose St. 4-4 5-7 92.2 94.2 92.2 92.9
Nevada 4-4 6-6 89.7 93.6 90.0 91.1
UNLV 2-6 3-9 81.9 83.6 81.9 82.5
Fresno St. 2-6 3-9 81.5 84.2 79.7 81.8
Hawaii 0-8 3-10 77.9 79.0 76.3 77.7
MWC Averages 91.5 93.1 91.1 91.9
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Stanford 8-1 10-2 123.2 120.3 123.0 122.2
Oregon 7-2 9-3 118.6 113.3 118.8 116.9
Washington 4-5 6-6 115.9 112.6 115.8 114.8
California 4-5 7-5 115.0 109.7 114.1 112.9
Washington St. 6-3 8-4 108.5 105.1 109.3 107.6
Oregon St. 0-9 2-10 88.7 85.3 86.6 86.9
South Division
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 6-3 8-4 121.0 116.4 120.6 119.3
UCLA 5-4 8-4 120.5 114.8 118.9 118.1
Utah 6-3 9-3 118.1 112.3 116.3 115.6
Arizona St. 4-5 6-6 114.4 109.5 114.0 112.6
Arizona 3-6 6-6 107.9 102.4 106.8 105.7
Colorado 1-8 4-9 105.3 100.5 103.7 103.2
Pac-12 Averages 113.1 108.5 112.3 111.3
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Tennessee 5-3 8-4 120.1 116.2 120.2 118.8
Georgia 5-3 9-3 116.1 111.2 115.4 114.2
Florida 7-1 10-2 114.3 111.1 114.0 113.1
South Carolina 1-7 3-9 107.3 104.2 106.3 105.9
Missouri 1-7 5-7 106.9 103.4 105.6 105.3
Kentucky 2-6 5-7 101.8 98.4 100.1 100.1
Vanderbilt 2-6 4-8 100.2 96.0 99.4 98.5
West Division
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 7-1 11-1 131.7 129.4 131.8 131.0
Ole Miss 6-2 9-3 124.7 120.2 123.9 122.9
Arkansas 5-3 7-5 121.3 116.4 120.8 119.5
LSU 5-3 8-3 119.8 116.4 119.4 118.5
Mississippi St. 4-4 8-4 116.5 113.1 116.5 115.4
Texas A&M 4-4 8-4 116.4 112.9 114.4 114.6
Auburn 2-6 6-6 113.6 110.4 112.3 112.1
SEC Averages 115.1 111.4 114.3 113.6
Sunbelt Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia Southern 6-1 8-3 100.7 103.5 102.6 102.3
Appalachian St. 6-1 9-2 97.0 100.2 98.9 98.7
Arkansas St. 7-0 8-3 94.2 95.7 96.3 95.4
Georgia St. 4-3 5-6 81.2 82.9 82.6 82.2
Troy 2-5 3-8 81.2 82.5 81.8 81.8
UL-Lafayette 3-4 4-7 80.1 82.6 79.8 80.8
Idaho 3-5 4-8 74.1 79.1 75.5 76.2
South Alabama 3-4 5-6 74.4 79.1 74.9 76.1
Texas St. 2-5 3-8 74.2 76.9 74.0 75.0
New Mexico St. 3-4 3-8 72.9 74.7 73.0 73.5
UL-Monroe 0-7 1-11 71.1 70.5 70.7 70.8
Sun Belt Averages 81.9 84.3 82.7 83.0

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 115.1 111.4 114.3 113.6
2 Pac-12 113.1 108.5 112.3 111.3
3 Big 12 110.5 104.9 110.2 108.5
4 ACC 107.8 108.5 107.5 107.9
5 Big Ten 107.1 105.8 106.6 106.5
6 Indep. 102.5 104.3 103.2 103.3
7 AAC 95.9 99.4 96.6 97.3
8 MWC 91.5 93.1 91.1 91.9
9 MAC 87.9 91.7 89.1 89.5
10 CUSA 86.1 88.1 86.3 86.8
11 SBC 81.9 84.3 82.7 83.0

 

FCS Playoffs
1st Round    
Chattanooga 50  
Fordham 20  
     
Citadel 41  
Coastal Carolina 38  
     
Montana 24  
South Dakota St. 17  
     
Northern Iowa 53  
Eastern Illinois 17  
     
2nd Round Dec. 5  ESPN3
Jacksonville St. 10-1 2 PM ET
Chattanooga 9-3  
     
Charleston Sou. 9-2 1 PM ET
Citadel 9-3  
     
James Madison 9-2 1 PM ET
Colgate 8-4  
     
McNeese St. 10-0 7 PM ET
Sam Houston 9-3  
     
North Dakota St. 9-2 3:30 PM ET
Montana 8-4  
     
Portland St. 9-2 10 PM ET
Northern Iowa 8-4  
     
Richmond 8-3 12 PM ET
William & Mary 9-3  
     
Illinois St. 9-2 2 PM ET
Western Illinois 7-5  

 

This Week’s Games
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Friday, December 4        
Bowling Green (n) Northern Illinois 11.3 12.3 13.5
         
Saturday, December 5        
Houston Temple 4.9 7.5 5.2
Baylor Texas 24.5 24.9 25.3
Western Kentucky Southern Miss. 13.5 11.3 14.0
Georgia Southern Georgia St. 21.5 22.6 22.0
Arkansas St. Texas St. 23.0 21.8 25.3
Louisiana-Monroe New Mexico St. 0.7 -1.7 0.2
Kansas St. West Virginia -7.3 -11.3 -7.8
Alabama (n) Florida 17.4 18.3 17.8
Louisiana-Lafayette Troy 1.4 2.6 0.5
South Alabama Appalachian St. -19.6 -18.1 -21.0
Air Force San Diego St. -4.6 -6.1 -6.8
Stanford (n) USC 3.7 5.4 3.9
Iowa (n) Michigan St. -8.4 -4.1 -7.8
Clemson (n) North Carolina -0.7 -0.8 -1.7

BOWL PROJECTIONS

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
Cure AAC SBC South Florida vs. Georgia Southern
New Mexico MWC CUSA New Mexico vs. Arizona *
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC/BYU Utah vs. BYU
Camellia MAC SBC Ohio vs. San Jose St. *
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech vs. Arkansas St.
Miami Beach AAC CUSA Houston vs. Western Kentucky
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Western Michigan vs. Boise St.
Boca Raton AAC MAC Connecticut vs. Toledo
Poinsettia MWC Army Colorado St. vs. Akron *
GoDaddy MAC SBC Bowling Green vs. Appalachian St.
Bahamas CUSA MAC Middle Tennessee vs. Northern Illinois
Hawaii AAC MWC/BYU Tulsa vs. San Diego St.
St. Petersburg AAC CUSA Memphis vs. Southern Miss.
Sun ACC Pac-12 Pittsburgh vs. Washington St.
Heart of Dallas Big 12 CUSA Nevada * vs. Marshall
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Duke vs. Indiana
Independence SEC ACC Missouri vs. Miami (Fla.)
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Nebraska vs. UCLA
Military ACC AAC Virginia Tech vs. Navy
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Central Michigan * vs. Minnesota
Armed Forces Big Ten MWC Washington * vs. Air Force
Russell Athletic ACC Big 12 Florida St. vs. Oklahoma St.
Arizona CUSA MWC California * vs. Utah St.
Texas Big 12 SEC Texas Tech vs. Texas A&M
Birmingham AAC SEC Cincinnati vs. Auburn
Belk ACC SEC North Carolina St. vs. Mississippi St.
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Penn St. vs. Tennessee
Peach N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 Clemson vs. Temple
Cotton Playoff Playoff Oklahoma vs. Michigan St.
Orange Playoff Playoff Alabama vs. North Carolina
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan vs. Oregon
Ouback Big Ten SEC Northwestern vs. Georgia
Citrus Big Ten SEC Wisconsin vs. Ole Miss
Sugar Big 12 SEC TCU vs. Florida
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. vs. Stanford
Fiesta N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 Iowa vs. Notre Dame
TaxSlayer ACC/Big Ten SEC Louisville vs. LSU
Liberty Big 12 SEC West Virginia vs. Arkansas
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Baylor vs. USC
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Kansas St. vs. Arizona St.
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Alabama vs. Oklahoma
           
* = At-large selection due to contracted conference not having an eligible team for this slot
 
Note: We have 4 teams with 5-7 in this week’s bowl projections based on highest APR Scores.
As of yet, no definitive protocol has been officially given to the bowls, and we believe there is
a strong possibility that the bowls will use their influence to invite only those 5-7 teams that will
be the top ones to provide financial success to the bowls. Thus, a San Jose St. may lose out.

January 17, 2014

PiRate Ratings NFL Conference Champion Game Previews–January 19, 2014

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:15 pm

NFL Conference Championship Playoff TV Schedule

Day

Time (ET)

Game

TV

Radio

Sunday, January 19

3:00 PM

New England @ Denver

CBS

Westwood 1

Sunday, January 19

6:30 PM

San Francisco @ Seattle

Fox

Westwood 1

   

To find a local Westwood 1 radio affiliate, check this link:

http://westwoodonesports.com/stations/

Weather Forecasts For Kickoff and Next 3-4 hours

Seattle—Mostly cloudy with virtually no wind.  Temperatures falling from the upper to the lower 40’s during the game.

 

 

Denver—Incredibly beautiful, Spring-like afternoon.  Temperatures starting in the upper 50’s with plentiful sunshine.  Light winds, and temperatures will fall to around 50 by the end of the game.

 

 

PiRate Spreads

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Seattle San Francisco

1.9

1.9

1.9

Denver New England

4.8

6.6

5.2

 

Computer Simulations (100x)

San Francisco at Seattle

San Francisco wins: 54

Seattle wins: 46

Average Margin: San Francisco 22.1  Seattle 20.7 

SF Outlier Win: 31-10

Sea Outlier Win: 24-3

 

New England at Denver

NE Wins: 53

Denver Wins: 47

Average Margin: New England 27.9  Denver 27.6

NE Outlier Win: 41-24

Den Outlier Win: 34-16

 

This is potentially the best pair of conference championship games since 2001-02.

January 18, 2012

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Conference Championship Round–January 22, 2012

This preview comes out a day late this week due to the unavailability of access to the simulator until Wednesday at lunchtime.  Better late than never.

 

Conference Championship Previews

 

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Spreads

 

Home Team in CAPS

 

 

 

 

 

Conference Championships:

 

 

 

 

 

Vegas Line as of Wednesday, January 18, 2012  @ 5:00 PM EST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

NEW ENGLAND Baltimore

10.1

9.9

6.5

7   

50 1/2

SAN FRANCISCO New York Giants

1.7

4.1

0.2

2 1/2

42    

 

 

Computer Simulations

 

Sunday, January 22, 2012

3PM EST

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots

 

100 Simulations: New England 63  Baltimore 37

Avg. Sim Score: New England 26.5  Baltimore 19.7  (46.2 total points)

Vs. Spread: New England 48  Baltimore 47  Push 5

Outlier Score A: New England 38  Baltimore 13

Outlier Score B: Baltimore 24  New England 12

 

6:30 PM EST

New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers

 

100 Simulations: New York Giants 53  San Francisco 47

Avg. Sim Score: New York Giants 23.6  San Francisco 20.9 (44.5 points)

Vs. Spread: New York Giants 82  San Francisco 18

Outlier Score A: New York Giants 37  San Francisco 14

Outlier Score B: San Francisco 27  New York Giants 9

 Note: The PiRate Ratings will begin its NCAA Basketball coverage next week.

Blog at WordPress.com.