NCAA National Championship Game By The Numbers

Duke (34-4)	vs.	Wisconsin (35-3)
CBS Television Tip Time: 9:18 PM EDT

Team Offense	Duke	Wisconsin
Field Goals	1075	989
Field Goal Attempts	2140	2054
3-Point Shots	279	281
3-Point Attempts	721	769
Free Throws	594	578
Free Throw Attempts	853	755
Offensive Rebounds	439	372
Defensive Rebounds	964	931
Turnovers	416	291
Steals	274	171
Possessions Per Game	66.4	59.8
Points Per Game	79.6	72.7
Team Defense	Duke	Wisconsin
Field Goals	937	872
Field Goal Attempts	2220	2041
3-Point Shots	192	198
3-Point Attempts	612	527
Free Throws	373	317
Free Throw Attempts	538	449
Offensive Rebounds	417	291
Defensive Rebounds	775	782
Turnovers	476	373
Steals	213	159
Possessions Per Game	66.7	59.9
Points Per Game	64.2	57.9
Four Factors	Duke	Wisconsin
Effective Field Goal %	56.8	55.0
Effective Field Goal %–Defense	46.5	47.6
Offensive Rebound Rate	36.2	32.2
Opponents Offensive Rebound Rate	30.2	23.8
Turnover Rate	16.5	12.5
Opponents Turnover Rate	18.8	16.0
Free Throw Rate* (FT/100 Poss.)	23.6	24.8
Opponents Free Throw Rate *	14.7	13.6
PiRate Criteria Factors	Duke	Wisconsin
Scoring Margin	15.4	14.8
Field Goal % Margin	8.0	5.4
Rebound Margin	5.6	5.4
Turnover Margin	1.6	2.1
R+T Rating # (see below for formula)	19.6	19.1
Won-Loss Away From Home	15-2	21-2
Schedule Strength (Per ESPN)	61.6	61.5
# R+T Rating components:	Duke	Wisconsin
Rebound Margin * 2	11.2	10.8
Average Steals * .5	3.6	2.2
6 – Opponents Average Steals	3.2	4.0
Turnover Margin	1.6	2.1
R+T Rating	19.6	19.1
PiRate Ratings
PiRate Red	Wisc by 1
PiRate White	Duke by 1
PiRate Blue	Duke by 2

100 Computer Simulations

Duke Wins: 52

Wisconsin Wins: 48

Note: 9 Overtime Games 2 of which went to double overtime, and one to triple overtime

Average Score: Duke 70.7  Wisconsin 69.4

Outlier A: Duke 74  Wisconsin 58

Outlier B: Wisconsin 70  Duke 60

This concludes the PiRate Ratings College Basketball Coverage for the season.  We will return in a couple weeks to offer our take on the Kentucky Derby with an emphasis on the two possible super horses this year–Dortmund and Materiality.

 

PiRate Ratings Preview of NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship

This has been one of the most interesting NCAA Tournaments in many years.  Never have both title game participants both enter the game with eight or more losses.  Kentucky with 10 and Connecticut with 8 make for the most total losses by title contenders at 18.  The same goes for highest combined seeds (UK-8/UConn-7).  Both teams failed to play in the NCAA Tournament at all last year, although Connecticut was ineligible due to academic progress issues.

 

The most interesting part of this equation for us involves the Huskies.  Connecticut has become the first team ever to make the Championship Game with a negative R+T rating.  R+T is a statistic that we invented.  It is similar to park-adjusted On-Base Plus Slugging Percentage in baseball.  It is a one-for-one adjustment to the number of extra scoring opportunities a team should expect to obtain in a game due to rebounds and turnovers, but with a higher emphasis on offensive rebounds and steals, which most frequently lead to easy scoring chances.

 

These schools squared off in the Final Four in 2011, which just so happened to be played in the Lone Star State.  Connecticut edged Kentucky by one point at Reliant Stadium in Houston.  No current Kentucky player was on the 2011 roster, while three Husky players saw action in that game.

 

Here is our look at the starting lineups.

 

Point Guard:

Kentucky—Andrew Harrison   #5        6-6, 215 Fr.

Connecticut—Shabazz Napier #13      6-1, 180 Sr.

Shooting Guard:

Kentucky—Aaron Harrison   #2        6-6, 218 Fr.

Connecticut—Ryan Boatright  #11      6-0, 168 Jr.

Small Forward:

Kentucky—James Young  #1        6-6, 215 Fr.

Connecticut—Niels Giffey #5        6-7, 205 Sr.

 

Power Forward:

Kentucky—Julius Randle    #30      6-9, 250 Fr.

Connecticut—DeAndre Daniels  #2    6-9, 195 Jr.

 

Center:

Kentucky—Dakari Johnson  #44      7-0, 265 Fr.

Connecticut—Phillip Nolan   #0        6-10, 212 So.

 

Reserves

Kentucky—Alex Poythress    #22      6-8, 239 So.

Kentucky—Marcus Lee     #00      6-9, 215 Fr.

Kentucky—Jarrod Polson  #3        6-2, 182 Sr.

Kentucky-Dominique Hawkins  #25      6-0, 193 Fr.

 

Connecticut—Lasan Kromah #20      6-6, 201 Jr.

Connecticut—Amida Brimah #35      7-0, 217 Fr.

Connecticut—Tyler Olander   #10      6-10, 230 Sr.

Connecticut—Terrence Samuel  #3        6-4, 190 Fr.

 

Here is our special statistical look at the game.

 

Stat	Kentucky	Connecticut
FG	986	949
FG-Att	2168	2109
3-Pt	198	281
Effective FG%	50.0	51.7
Def FG	911	860
Def FG-Att	2218	2195
Def 3-pt	216	236
Def Effective FG%	45.9	44.6
Offensive Reb	564	379
Opp. Def. Reb	768	863
Reb Rate	42.3	30.5
Opp. Off. Reb	429	482
Defensive Reb	1011	983
Opp. Reb Rate	29.8	32.9
Turnovers	468	447
Free Throw Attempts	1122	819
Turnover Rate	14.8	15.2
Opp. Turnovers	418	505
Opp. FT-Attempts	826	777
Opp. Turnover Rate	13.8	16.5
Free Throws Made	768	634
Free Throw Rate	29.5	24.7
Opp. FT-Made	567	519
Opp. FT Rate	21.8	20.1
Possessions/Game	66.8	65.8
R + T Rating	14.3	-1.1
Road/Neutral W-L	13-8	16-5
Strength of Schedule	.5825	.5735
FG% Margin Score	3.54	6.13
Reb Rate Score	3.12	-0.59
TO Margin Score	-0.37	0.49
FT Rate Score	1.27	0.77
PiRate Criteria Score	7.57	6.80
Predicted Score	69	67