Home | Visitor | Spread |
San Diego St. | Creighton | -1.7 |
Texas | Miami (Fla) | 5.3 |
For Bracketnomics Comparisons, check out yesterday’s publication: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2023/03/25/pirate-ratings-college-basketball-saturday-march-25-2023/
Home | Visitor | Spread |
San Diego St. | Creighton | -1.7 |
Texas | Miami (Fla) | 5.3 |
For Bracketnomics Comparisons, check out yesterday’s publication: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2023/03/25/pirate-ratings-college-basketball-saturday-march-25-2023/
Home | Visitor | Spread |
Kansas St. | Florida Atlantic | 0.8 |
Connecticut | Gonzaga | 1.2 |
Stat | SDSU | Creighton |
O-RTG | 70 | 22 |
D-RTG | 4 | 14 |
SOS | 57.9 | 59.3 |
3-Pt | 34.9 | 35.8 |
O-Reb | 32.0 | 25.2 |
2PT%D | 49.3 | 45.9 |
FTR | 33.3 | 28.6 |
R+T Rate | 9.0 | 0.1 |
Old R+T | 13.7 | 8.6 |
Marg | 8.8 | 8.3 |
Win Strk | 7 & 6 | 8 & 6 |
Pre25 | YES | YES |
Champ | YES | No |
Coach Exp | 3: 0-3 | 10: 1S16 |
3 Upper | YES | NO |
F/C 20-12 | NO | YES |
DBLFIG | 1 | 5 |
OReb | 32.0 | 25.2 |
OStl | 10.4 | 7.2 |
OTurn | 15.1 | 14.9 |
DReb | 25.7 | 23.2 |
DStl | 9.3 | 8.6 |
DTurn | 17.2 | 12.4 |
Reb Marg | 4.6 | 3.9 |
Stl/G | 7.0 | 5.1 |
D Stl | 6.3 | 6.0 |
TO Marg | 1.3 | -1.8 |
Creighton is the slight favorite in this criteria, but it isn’t by much. If not for overall strength of schedule, the Aztecs would have the advantage due to better steal rate and turnover rate, the two criteria that are showing up to be more important this year than an average year. SDSU beat Alabama, because they jumped the passing lanes and won the R+T battle with ease.
Stat | FAU | Kansas St. |
O-RTG | 26 | 35 |
D-RTG | 29 | 27 |
SOS | 50.5 | 58.5 |
3-Pt | 36.5 | 34.0 |
O-Reb | 31.4 | 30.4 |
2PT%D | 44.7 | 49.1 |
FTR | 28.9 | 36.2 |
R+T Rate | 8.7 | 1.6 |
Old R+T | 16.0 | 6.4 |
Marg | 13.2 | 6.6 |
Win Strk | 20 & 10 | 9 & 6 |
Pre25 | NO | NO |
Champ | YES | No |
Coach Exp | 0 | 0 |
3 Upper | NO | YES |
F/C 20-12 | NO | YES |
DBLFIG | 3 | 3 |
OReb | 31.4 | 30.4 |
OStl | 9.5 | 11.0 |
OTurn | 14.5 | 17.0 |
DReb | 25.1 | 29.9 |
DStl | 8.2 | 10.2 |
DTurn | 15.9 | 18.0 |
Reb Marg | 5.7 | 1.4 |
Stl/G | 6.5 | 7.9 |
D Stl | 5.6 | 7.3 |
TO Marg | 0.9 | 0.9 |
Florida Atlantic overcame Tennessee’s inside advantage in the Sweet 16, but we have seen the Vols’ inconsistent play all year and don’t think it was entirely the Owls’ defense that eliminated Tennessee’s biggest advantage. Kansas State also has the inside advantage, by even more than that enjoyed by UT. This looks like the end of a great mid-major run for FAU, as Kansas State has enough advantage here to make their first Final Four since Tex Winter and his triple post offense guided the Wildcats to the 1964 Final Four.
Stat | Miami | Texas |
O-RTG | 6 | 15 |
D-RTG | 104 | 10 |
SOS | 56.1 | 60.0 |
3-Pt | 37.0 | 34.5 |
O-Reb | 31.9 | 28.2 |
2PT%D | 51.5 | 47.3 |
FTR | 30.2 | 30.7 |
R+T Rate | 6.1 | 3.7 |
Old R+T | 11.0 | 8.0 |
Marg | 7.7 | 10.6 |
Win Strk | 9 & 7 | 7 & 6 |
Pre25 | NO | YES |
Champ | Co | YES |
Coach Exp | 10 & 1FF | 0 |
3 Upper | NO | YES |
F/C 20-12 | NO | NO |
DBLFIG | 4 | 4 |
OReb | 31.9 | 28.2 |
OStl | 10.4 | 11.2 |
OTurn | 14.0 | 14.3 |
DReb | 28.4 | 29.1 |
DStl | 8.5 | 8.1 |
DTurn | 15.7 | 19.5 |
Reb Marg | 3.0 | -0.3 |
Stl/G | 7.2 | 7.9 |
D Stl | 5.9 | 5.7 |
TO Marg | 1.3 | 4.3 |
On paper, this is an exciting tossup that could go down to the last minute. However, there is a huge question mark in this game. Texas may not have the services of 6 foot 9 inch forward Dylan Disu, who has been the Longhorns’ best player down the stretch. They dismissed Xavier with Disu playing less than a minute before further injuring his leg.
If Disu cannot play, Miami can ramp up the tempo in this game and wear Texas down. Without Disu, Texas has a major liability on the glass, and they will have to force a lot of turnovers to make up for Miami’s potential extra shot attempts.
Jim Larranaga has taken a team to the Final Four once before, and he did so with a low major team beating the overall number one seed to get there. Miami made it this far last year. It looks favorable for Hurricane Warnings to go up in Houston next week.
Stat | Connecticut | Gonzaga |
O-RTG | 3 | 1 |
D-RTG | 13 | 73 |
SOS | 58.5 | 57.5 |
3-Pt | 36.4 | 38.6 |
O-Reb | 38.9 | 31.8 |
2PT%D | 45.0 | 50.3 |
FTR | 30.9 | 33.6 |
R+T Rate | 15.0 | 11.4 |
Old R+T | 21.2 | 18.8 |
Marg | 14.0 | 13.9 |
Win Strk | 14 & 6 | 12 & 11 |
Pre25 | NO | YES |
Champ | No | YES |
Coach Exp | 4: 0-4 | 22 & 2FF |
3 Upper | NO | YES |
F/C 20-12 | YES | YES |
DBLFIG | 3 | 4 |
OReb | 38.9 | 31.8 |
OStl | 9.3 | 10.2 |
OTurn | 15.9 | 13.1 |
DReb | 25.9 | 25.0 |
DStl | 9.8 | 7.3 |
DTurn | 16.6 | 16.5 |
Reb Marg | 9.4 | 5.9 |
Stl/G | 6.4 | 7.4 |
D Stl | 6.7 | 5.3 |
TO Marg | -0.1 | 2.6 |
As far as the Bracketnomics are concerned, this may be the real National Championship Game. The two best offenses left in the field and two of the three best overall face off. But, UConn also has a top 20 defense, which is how most National Champions look–top 10 offense and top 20 defense.
Still, this game is not a slam dunk easy win for UConn. Gonzaga has a coach with a lot more tournament experience with two recent Final Fours and with players that have played in the National Championship on this roster. Gonzaga was a pre-season top 25 team, while the Huskies were not, and almost every past national champion was ranked in the pre-season.
The one stat that really concerns us is the turnover margin. As we told you above, turnover margin and steals have been considerably more important this year than an average year. UConn has a negative turnover margin and has a propensity to be a little too gracious throwing the ball to the wrong-colored jerseys. If Gonzaga can get 8 or more steals and force 14 or more turnovers in this game, they will likely win. If the Huskies can limit Bulldog steals to 6 or less, and they commit 12 or fewer turnovers, they will win. If it’s somewhere in between, this game could come down to a last second shot or even overtime.
Home | Visitor | Spread |
Alabama | San Diego St. | 7.6 |
Houston | Miami (Fla) | 7.7 |
Creighton | Princeton | 10.6 |
Texas | Xavier | 3.2 |
Home | Visitor | Spread |
Auburn | Missouri | 5.7 |
Ball St. | Northern Illinois | 8.0 |
Bowling Green | Central Michigan | 5.3 |
DePaul | St. John’s | -1.8 |
Duke | Notre Dame | 14.2 |
Eastern Michigan | Akron | -9.4 |
Georgia | LSU | 3.7 |
Massachusetts | Loyola (Chi) | 5.0 |
New Mexico | Wyoming | 11.6 |
Ohio | Buffalo | 4.1 |
Oklahoma | Kansas St. | -1.6 |
Oklahoma St. | Kansas | -0.7 |
Penn St. | Illinois | -1.7 |
Pittsburgh | Boston College | 11.9 |
Providence | Creighton | -1.2 |
Rutgers | Nebraska | 12.5 |
Seton Hall | Georgetown | 13.6 |
South Carolina | Vanderbilt | -6.1 |
Syracuse | North Carolina St. | -1.8 |
Toledo | Miami (O) | 14.9 |
UNLV | San Jose St. | 6.8 |
Utah St. | Air Force | 13.4 |
Valparaiso | Southern Illinois | -5.7 |
Villanova | Butler | 6.9 |
Western Michigan | Kent St. | -13.0 |
Wisconsin | Michigan | 1.1 |
Date | 2/7/2022 | |||||
Seed | Team | Team | Team | Team | Team | Team |
1 | Gonzaga | Auburn | Purdue | Kentucky | ||
2 | Kansas | Arizona | Baylor | Duke | ||
3 | Texas Tech | Houston | Illinois | Providence | ||
4 | Michigan St. | Wisconsin | UCLA | Villanova | ||
5 | Marquette | Tennessee | Texas | Ohio St. | ||
6 | Xavier | LSU | Connecticut | Alabama | ||
7 | USC | Indiana | Saint Mary’s | Iowa St. | ||
8 | Arkansas | TCU | Iowa | Boise St. | ||
9 | Wake Forest | Murray St. | San Francisco | Wyoming | ||
10 | Loyola (Chi.) | BYU | Davidson | Seton Hall | ||
11 | Colorado St. | Oregon | Miami (Fla.) | North Carolina | ||
12 | Iona | North Texas | Notre Dame | Creighton | Florida | Belmont |
13 | Ohio | Chattanooga | Vermont | South Dakota St. | ||
14 | New Mexico St. | Wagner | Weber St. | Cal St. Fullerton | ||
15 | Longwood | Jacksonville St. | Cleveland St. | Yale | ||
16 | Colgate | UNC Wilmington | Norfolk St. | Appalachian St. | New Orleans | Southern |
69 | San Diego St. |
70 | Saint Louis |
71 | Mississippi State |
72 | SMU |
73 | Washington St. |
74 | Michigan |
75 | Florida State |
76 | Oklahoma |
Date | 2/4/2022 | |||||
Seed | Team | Team | Team | Team | Team | Team |
1 | Gonzaga | Auburn | Purdue | Baylor | ||
2 | Kansas | Arizona | Kentucky | UCLA | ||
3 | Duke | Texas Tech | Houston | Villanova | ||
4 | Michigan St. | Wisconsin | Illinois | Providence | ||
5 | Xavier | Marquette | Ohio St. | LSU | ||
6 | Tennessee | Alabama | Texas | Connecticut | ||
7 | Iowa St. | USC | Indiana | Iowa | ||
8 | Saint Mary’s | TCU | Arkansas | San Francisco | ||
9 | Loyola (Chi.) | Wake Forest | Murray St. | Wyoming | ||
10 | Boise St. | BYU | Seton Hall | Davidson | ||
11 | Oregon | Colorado St. | Oklahoma | San Diego St. | ||
12 | Iona | North Texas | Creighton | Miami (Fla.) | North Carolina | Florida |
13 | Toledo | Furman | Vermont | South Dakota St. | ||
14 | New Mexico St. | Wagner | Towson | Liberty | ||
15 | Oakland | Weber St. | Longwood | Cal St. Fullerton | ||
16 | Yale | Colgate | Norfolk St. | Troy | New Orleans | Florida A&M |
69 | Notre Dame |
70 | Michigan |
71 | Florida State |
72 | Mississippi State |
73 | SMU |
74 | Belmont |
75 | Drake |
76 | Washington St. |
Home | Visitors | Spread |
Virginia | Boston College | 7.9 |
Connecticut | Creighton | 10.2 |
Iowa St. | Kansas | -3.7 |
Maryland | Michigan St. | -4.2 |
Tennessee | Texas A&M | 11.5 |
Siena | Canisius | 3.3 |
Duquesne | Richmond | -6.8 |
St. Bonaventure | Davidson | 1.5 |
Western Michigan | Northern Illinois | 0.3 |
Ohio | Ball St. | 12.6 |
Eastern Michigan | Toledo | -11.6 |
Central Michigan | Bowling Green | -6.4 |
Miami (O) | Kent St. | 0.8 |
Mississippi St. | South Carolina | 7.7 |
Northwestern | Rutgers | 6.5 |
Louisville | North Carolina | -3.9 |
Georgetown | Seton Hall | -8.3 |
Auburn | Alabama | 7.1 |
Texas Tech | Texas | 4.6 |
St. John’s | Providence | 0.8 |
LSU | Mississippi | 15.0 |
Wichita St. | Tulsa | 8.4 |
Utah St. | Air Force | 16.5 |
Michigan | Nebraska | 15.0 |
Stanford | California | 5.6 |
UC Riverside | UC Davis | 7.0 |
UNLV | Nevada | 4.2 |
San Jose St. | Fresno St. | -12.0 |
Date | 1/7/2022 | |||||
Seed | Team | Team | Team | Team | Team | Team |
1 | Baylor | Gonzaga | Houston | Arizona | ||
2 | Kansas | Villanova | Auburn | LSU | ||
3 | Duke | Purdue | Texas | Tennessee | ||
4 | Illinois | Michigan St. | USC | Kentucky | ||
5 | Alabama | UCLA | Connecticut | Iowa St. | ||
6 | Wisconsin | Xavier | Ohio St. | Texas Tech | ||
7 | Loyola (Chi.) | Seton Hall | BYU | Indiana | ||
8 | Iowa | Colorado St. | W. Virginia | N. Carolina | ||
9 | Oklahoma | Va.Tech | San Francisco | Mississippi St. | ||
10 | Providence | TCU | Florida | Wake Forest | ||
11 | Saint Mary’s | Michigan | San Diego St. | Memphis | Texas A&M | Clemson |
12 | Chattanooga | Belmont | Davidson | UAB | ||
13 | Iona | Ohio | Vermont | Towson | ||
14 | Wagner | South Dakota St. | Navy | Oakland | ||
15 | Grand Canyon | UC-Irvine | Liberty | Princeton | ||
16 | Louisiana | Weber St. | Nicholls St. | Gardner-Webb | Texas Southern | Howard |
First Four Out
Creighton |
Louisville |
Florida St. |
Cincinnati |
Next Four Out
Minnesota |
Wyoming |
Boise St. |
Washington St. |
Process: The PiRate Ratings use a combination of NET Rankings, Computer Rankings, Strength of Schedule, Strength of Wins, The Eye-Test, and unfortunately Politics to attempt to mimic what the NCAA Selection Committee does leading up to Selection Sunday.
Home | Visitor | Spread |
Davidson | St. Bonaventure | -1.0 |
George Mason | George Washington | 6.5 |
Saint Joseph’s | Dayton | -8.8 |
La Salle | Duquesne | -4.3 |
South Florida | Temple | 3.8 |
Memphis | Tulane | 11.7 |
Tulsa | Cincinnati | 1.2 |
Wake Forest | Clemson | -6.0 |
Virginia | NC St. | 8.7 |
Miami (Fla.) | Florida St. | -12.5 |
North Carolina | Marquette | 8.9 |
Butler | Seton Hall | -6.7 |
Creighton | DePaul | 13.6 |
Providence | Xavier | -0.8 |
Southern Utah | Northern Arizona | 11.8 |
Longwood | Hampton | 8.8 |
Rutgers | Indiana | 3.1 |
Ball St. | Kent St. | -4.6 |
UNC Central | North Carolina A&T | 2.8 |
Norfolk St | Delaware St. | 14.2 |
Air Force | New Mexico | 0.1 |
UNLV | Fresno St. | 5.8 |
Boston University | Holy Cross | 5.4 |
Loyola (MD) | American | 3.6 |
Mississippi St. | South Carolina | 3.5 |
Arkansas | Alabama | -2.0 |
Vanderbilt | Tennessee | -6.8 |
Furman | The Citadel | 12.8 |
Mercer | Chattanooga | 2.5 |
UNCG | Western Carolina | 11.9 |
Northwestern St. | Stephen F. Austin | -7.4 |
SE Louisiana | McNeese | 4.2 |
Texas A&M-CC | New Orleans | -0.4 |
Nicholls | Houston Baptist | 10.5 |
Incarnate Word | Lamar | 4.5 |
Abilene Christian | Sam Houston St. | 8.1 |
Southern | Alabama A&M | 6.4 |
Alcorn St. | Alabama St. | 5.7 |
Home |
Visitor |
Spread |
Arkansas |
LSU |
2.8 |
Auburn |
Texas A&M |
12.7 |
Butler |
St. John’s |
7.6 |
Central Florida |
SMU |
-0.2 |
Charlotte |
North Texas |
-3.9 |
Colorado St. |
Wyoming |
14.3 |
Creighton |
Georgetown |
8.9 |
Eastern Illinois |
Jacksonville St. |
4.8 |
Fresno St. |
Air Force |
4.0 |
George Mason |
Saint Louis |
-2.8 |
George Washington |
Fordham |
5.7 |
Georgia |
Florida |
-2.2 |
Georgia Tech |
Pittsburgh |
6.7 |
Incarnate Word |
Houston Baptist |
2.8 |
Indiana |
Minnesota |
2.9 |
Iona |
Quinnipiac |
5.5 |
Kansas |
TCU |
18.2 |
La Salle |
Massachusetts |
3.3 |
Long Island |
Fairleigh Dickinson |
4.8 |
Louisiana Tech |
Florida Intl. |
9.2 |
Marist |
Canisius |
0.2 |
Marshall |
Florida Atlantic |
5.6 |
Miami (Fla.) |
Virginia |
-1.4 |
Middle Tennessee |
UTEP |
-2.4 |
Monmouth |
Fairfield |
8.0 |
New Mexico |
San Jose St. |
10.5 |
Nicholls |
McNeese |
5.9 |
Northwestern St. |
New Orleans |
3.4 |
Notre Dame |
Florida St. |
-2.7 |
Oklahoma St. |
Kansas St. |
6.2 |
Old Dominion |
UTSA |
4.6 |
Ole Miss |
Missouri |
4.3 |
Providence |
Xavier |
3.1 |
Rhode Island |
Dayton |
-4.1 |
Rider |
Manhattan |
7.6 |
Robert Morris |
St. Francis (NY) |
8.6 |
Sacred Heart |
Mount St. Mary’s |
8.6 |
Seton Hall |
Villanova |
4.3 |
Siena |
Niagara |
10.7 |
Southeast Louisiana |
Central Arkansas |
-3.4 |
Southern Miss |
Rice |
-0.5 |
St. Bonaventure |
Saint Joseph’s |
11.8 |
St. Francis (PA) |
Bryant |
6.5 |
Temple |
Tulsa |
2.0 |
Tennessee St. |
Morehead St. |
6.1 |
Texas A&M-CC |
Sam Houston St. |
-2.8 |
UC Irvine |
Cal St. Northridge |
12.8 |
Virginia Tech |
Clemson |
0.9 |
Wisconsin |
Northwestern |
13.5 |
Time (EST) |
Network |
Home |
Visitor |
6:30 PM |
FS1 |
Providence |
Xavier |
7:00 PM |
SECN |
Arkansas |
LSU |
8:00 PM |
ESPN+ |
Kansas |
TCU |
8:30 PM |
FS1 |
Seton Hall |
Villanova |
9:00 PM |
CBSSN |
Rhode Island |
Dayton |
Atlantic Sun Tournament |
|||
Quarterfinals |
|||
Winner |
Score |
Loser |
Score |
Liberty |
55 |
NJIT |
49 |
Stetson |
82 |
North Alabama |
72 |
Lipscomb |
68 |
Florida Gulf Coast |
63 |
North Florida |
91 |
Jacksonville |
88 |
Semifinals |
March 5 |
at Higher Seed’s Home Court |
|
Home |
Visitor |
Time (ET) |
TV |
1 Liberty (28-4) |
4 Stetson (16-16) |
7:00 PM |
ESPN+ |
2 North Florida (21-11) |
3 Lipscomb (15-15) |
7:00 PM |
ESPN+ |
Big South Tournament |
|||
1st Round |
|||
Winner |
Score |
Loser |
Score |
USC Upstate |
69 |
High Point |
59 |
UNC-Asheville |
72 |
Campbell |
68 |
Charleston Southern |
81 |
Presbyterian |
64 |
Quarterfinals |
March 5 |
at #1 Seed Radford |
|
Team |
Team |
Time (ET) |
TV |
2 Winthrop (21-10) |
7 USC Upstate (13-19) |
12:00 PM |
ESPN3 |
3 Gardner-Webb (15-15) |
6 UNC-Asheville (15-15) |
2:00 PM |
ESPN3 |
1 Radford (20-10) |
8 Charleston Southern (14-17) |
6:00 PM |
ESPN3 |
4 Longwood (14-17) |
5 Hampton (13-18) |
8:00 PM |
ESPN3 |
Horizon League Tournament |
|||
1st Round |
|||
Winner |
Score |
Loser |
Score |
Illinois Chicago |
93 |
IUPUI |
59 |
Youngstown St. |
63 |
Milwaukee |
57 |
Oakland |
80 |
Cleveland St. |
59 |
Quarterfinals |
March 5 |
at Higher Seed’s Home Court |
|
Home |
Visitor |
Time (ET) |
TV |
3 Green Bay (16-15) |
6 Oakland (14-18) |
8:00 PM |
ESPN+ |
4 Illinois Chicago (15-17) |
5 Youngstown (18-14) |
8:00 PM |
ESPN+ |
Patriot League Tournament |
|||
1st Round |
|||
Winner |
Score |
Loser |
Score |
Bucknell |
65 |
Holy Cross |
62 |
Lehigh |
78 |
Loyola (MD) |
75 |
Quarterfinals |
March 5 |
at Higher Seed’s Home Court |
|
Home |
Visitor |
Time (ET) |
TV |
2 American (16-13) |
7 Bucknell (13-19) |
7:00 PM |
Pat League Network |
3 Boston U (18-13) |
6 Navy (14-15) |
7:00 PM |
Pat League Network |
4 Army (15-14) |
5 Lafayette (18-11) |
7:00 PM |
Pat League Network |
1 Colgate (23-8) |
8 Lehigh (11-20) |
7:00 PM |
Pat League Network |
Mountain West Tournament |
|||
1st Round |
March 4 |
Las Vegas (Thomas & Mack Center) |
|
Team |
Team |
Time (ET) |
TV |
8 Fresno St. (11-18) |
9 Air Force (11-19) |
3:00 PM |
Mountain West Net. |
7 New Mexico (18-13) |
10 San Jose St. (7-23) |
5:30 PM |
Mountain West Net. |
6 Colorado St. (20-11) |
11 Wyoming (7-23) |
8:00 PM |
Mountain West Net. |
Northeast Tournament |
|||
Quarterfinals |
March 4 |
at Higher Seed’s Home Court |
|
Home |
Visitor |
Time (ET) |
TV |
1 Robert Morris (17-14) |
8 St. Francis (NY) (13-17) |
7:00 PM |
http://necfrontrow.com/ |
2 St. Francis (PA) (20-9) |
7 Bryant (15-16) |
7:00 PM |
http://necfrontrow.com/ |
3 Sacred Heart (19-12) |
6 Mount St. Mary’s (11-20) |
7:00 PM |
http://necfrontrow.com/ |
4 Long Island (14-17) |
5 Fairleigh-Dickinson (11-18) |
7:00 PM |
http://necfrontrow.com/ |
Ohio Valley Tournament |
|||
1st Round |
March 4 |
Evansville, IN (Ford Center) |
|
Team |
Team |
Time (ET) |
TV |
5 Tennessee St. (17-14) |
8 Morehead St. (13-18) |
7:30 PM |
ESPN+ |
6 Eastern Illinois (16-14) |
7 Jacksonville St. (13-18) |
9:30 PM |
ESPN+ |