PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Sunday, March 26, 2023

Home	Visitor	Spread
San Diego St.	Creighton	-1.7
Texas	Miami (Fla)	5.3

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For Bracketnomics Comparisons, check out yesterday’s publication: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2023/03/25/pirate-ratings-college-basketball-saturday-march-25-2023/

PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Saturday, March 25, 2023



Home	Visitor	Spread
Kansas St.	Florida Atlantic	0.8
Connecticut	Gonzaga	1.2

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Bracketnomics Comparisons

Stat	SDSU	Creighton
O-RTG	70	22
D-RTG	4	14
SOS	57.9	59.3
3-Pt	34.9	35.8
O-Reb	32.0	25.2
2PT%D	49.3	45.9
FTR	33.3	28.6
R+T Rate	9.0	0.1
Old R+T	13.7	8.6
Marg	8.8	8.3
Win Strk	7 & 6	8 & 6
Pre25	YES	YES
Champ	YES	No
Coach Exp	3: 0-3	10: 1S16
3 Upper	YES	NO
F/C 20-12	NO	YES
DBLFIG	1	5
OReb	32.0	25.2
OStl	10.4	7.2
OTurn	15.1	14.9
DReb	25.7	23.2
DStl	9.3	8.6
DTurn	17.2	12.4
Reb Marg	4.6	3.9
Stl/G	7.0	5.1
D Stl	6.3	6.0
TO Marg	1.3	-1.8

Creighton is the slight favorite in this criteria, but it isn’t by much. If not for overall strength of schedule, the Aztecs would have the advantage due to better steal rate and turnover rate, the two criteria that are showing up to be more important this year than an average year. SDSU beat Alabama, because they jumped the passing lanes and won the R+T battle with ease.

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Stat	FAU	Kansas St.
O-RTG	26	35
D-RTG	29	27
SOS	50.5	58.5
3-Pt	36.5	34.0
O-Reb	31.4	30.4
2PT%D	44.7	49.1
FTR	28.9	36.2
R+T Rate	8.7	1.6
Old R+T	16.0	6.4
Marg	13.2	6.6
Win Strk	20 & 10	9 & 6
Pre25	NO	NO
Champ	YES	No
Coach Exp	0	0
3 Upper	NO	YES
F/C 20-12	NO	YES
DBLFIG	3	3
OReb	31.4	30.4
OStl	9.5	11.0
OTurn	14.5	17.0
DReb	25.1	29.9
DStl	8.2	10.2
DTurn	15.9	18.0
Reb Marg	5.7	1.4
Stl/G	6.5	7.9
D Stl	5.6	7.3
TO Marg	0.9	0.9

Florida Atlantic overcame Tennessee’s inside advantage in the Sweet 16, but we have seen the Vols’ inconsistent play all year and don’t think it was entirely the Owls’ defense that eliminated Tennessee’s biggest advantage. Kansas State also has the inside advantage, by even more than that enjoyed by UT. This looks like the end of a great mid-major run for FAU, as Kansas State has enough advantage here to make their first Final Four since Tex Winter and his triple post offense guided the Wildcats to the 1964 Final Four.

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Stat	Miami	Texas
O-RTG	6	15
D-RTG	104	10
SOS	56.1	60.0
3-Pt	37.0	34.5
O-Reb	31.9	28.2
2PT%D	51.5	47.3
FTR	30.2	30.7
R+T Rate	6.1	3.7
Old R+T	11.0	8.0
Marg	7.7	10.6
Win Strk	9 & 7	7 & 6
Pre25	NO	YES
Champ	Co	YES
Coach Exp	10 & 1FF	0
3 Upper	NO	YES
F/C 20-12	NO	NO
DBLFIG	4	4
OReb	31.9	28.2
OStl	10.4	11.2
OTurn	14.0	14.3
DReb	28.4	29.1
DStl	8.5	8.1
DTurn	15.7	19.5
Reb Marg	3.0	-0.3
Stl/G	7.2	7.9
D Stl	5.9	5.7
TO Marg	1.3	4.3

On paper, this is an exciting tossup that could go down to the last minute. However, there is a huge question mark in this game. Texas may not have the services of 6 foot 9 inch forward Dylan Disu, who has been the Longhorns’ best player down the stretch. They dismissed Xavier with Disu playing less than a minute before further injuring his leg.

If Disu cannot play, Miami can ramp up the tempo in this game and wear Texas down. Without Disu, Texas has a major liability on the glass, and they will have to force a lot of turnovers to make up for Miami’s potential extra shot attempts.

Jim Larranaga has taken a team to the Final Four once before, and he did so with a low major team beating the overall number one seed to get there. Miami made it this far last year. It looks favorable for Hurricane Warnings to go up in Houston next week.

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Stat	Connecticut	Gonzaga
O-RTG	3	1
D-RTG	13	73
SOS	58.5	57.5
3-Pt	36.4	38.6
O-Reb	38.9	31.8
2PT%D	45.0	50.3
FTR	30.9	33.6
R+T Rate	15.0	11.4
Old R+T	21.2	18.8
Marg	14.0	13.9
Win Strk	14 & 6	12 & 11
Pre25	NO	YES
Champ	No	YES
Coach Exp	4: 0-4	22 & 2FF
3 Upper	NO	YES
F/C 20-12	YES	YES
DBLFIG	3	4
OReb	38.9	31.8
OStl	9.3	10.2
OTurn	15.9	13.1
DReb	25.9	25.0
DStl	9.8	7.3
DTurn	16.6	16.5
Reb Marg	9.4	5.9
Stl/G	6.4	7.4
D Stl	6.7	5.3
TO Marg	-0.1	2.6

As far as the Bracketnomics are concerned, this may be the real National Championship Game. The two best offenses left in the field and two of the three best overall face off. But, UConn also has a top 20 defense, which is how most National Champions look–top 10 offense and top 20 defense.

Still, this game is not a slam dunk easy win for UConn. Gonzaga has a coach with a lot more tournament experience with two recent Final Fours and with players that have played in the National Championship on this roster. Gonzaga was a pre-season top 25 team, while the Huskies were not, and almost every past national champion was ranked in the pre-season.

The one stat that really concerns us is the turnover margin. As we told you above, turnover margin and steals have been considerably more important this year than an average year. UConn has a negative turnover margin and has a propensity to be a little too gracious throwing the ball to the wrong-colored jerseys. If Gonzaga can get 8 or more steals and force 14 or more turnovers in this game, they will likely win. If the Huskies can limit Bulldog steals to 6 or less, and they commit 12 or fewer turnovers, they will win. If it’s somewhere in between, this game could come down to a last second shot or even overtime.

PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Friday, March 24, 2023

Home	Visitor	Spread
Alabama	San Diego St.	7.6
Houston	Miami (Fla)	7.7
Creighton	Princeton	10.6
Texas	Xavier	3.2

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Tuesday, February 14, 2023

Home	Visitor	Spread
Auburn	Missouri	5.7
Ball St.	Northern Illinois	8.0
Bowling Green	Central Michigan	5.3
DePaul	St. John’s	-1.8
Duke	Notre Dame	14.2
Eastern Michigan	Akron	-9.4
Georgia	LSU	3.7
Massachusetts	Loyola (Chi)	5.0
New Mexico	Wyoming	11.6
Ohio	Buffalo	4.1
Oklahoma	Kansas St.	-1.6
Oklahoma St.	Kansas	-0.7
Penn St.	Illinois	-1.7
Pittsburgh	Boston College	11.9
Providence	Creighton	-1.2
Rutgers	Nebraska	12.5
Seton Hall	Georgetown	13.6
South Carolina	Vanderbilt	-6.1
Syracuse	North Carolina St.	-1.8
Toledo	Miami (O)	14.9
UNLV	San Jose St.	6.8
Utah St.	Air Force	13.4
Valparaiso	Southern Illinois	-5.7
Villanova	Butler	6.9
Western Michigan	Kent St.	-13.0
Wisconsin	Michigan	1.1

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date	2/7/2022
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Gonzaga	Auburn	Purdue	Kentucky
2	Kansas	Arizona	Baylor	Duke
3	Texas Tech	Houston	Illinois	Providence
4	Michigan St.	Wisconsin	UCLA	Villanova
5	Marquette	Tennessee	Texas	Ohio St.
6	Xavier	LSU	Connecticut	Alabama
7	USC	Indiana	Saint Mary’s	Iowa St.
8	Arkansas	TCU	Iowa	Boise St.
9	Wake Forest	Murray St.	San Francisco	Wyoming
10	Loyola (Chi.)	BYU	Davidson	Seton Hall
11	Colorado St.	Oregon	Miami (Fla.)	North Carolina
12	Iona	North Texas	Notre Dame	Creighton	Florida	Belmont
13	Ohio	Chattanooga	Vermont	South Dakota St.
14	New Mexico St.	Wagner	Weber St.	Cal St. Fullerton
15	Longwood	Jacksonville St.	Cleveland St.	Yale
16	Colgate	UNC Wilmington	Norfolk St.	Appalachian St.	New Orleans	Southern

Best of the Rest

69	San Diego St.
70	Saint Louis
71	Mississippi State
72	SMU
73	Washington St.
74	Michigan
75	Florida State
76	Oklahoma

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date	2/4/2022
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Gonzaga	Auburn	Purdue	Baylor
2	Kansas	Arizona	Kentucky	UCLA
3	Duke	Texas Tech	Houston	Villanova
4	Michigan St.	Wisconsin	Illinois	Providence
5	Xavier	Marquette	Ohio St.	LSU
6	Tennessee	Alabama	Texas	Connecticut
7	Iowa St.	USC	Indiana	Iowa
8	Saint Mary’s	TCU	Arkansas	San Francisco
9	Loyola (Chi.)	Wake Forest	Murray St.	Wyoming
10	Boise St.	BYU	Seton Hall	Davidson
11	Oregon	Colorado St.	Oklahoma	San Diego St.
12	Iona	North Texas	Creighton	Miami (Fla.)	North Carolina	Florida
13	Toledo	Furman	Vermont	South Dakota St.
14	New Mexico St.	Wagner	Towson	Liberty
15	Oakland	Weber St.	Longwood	Cal St. Fullerton
16	Yale	Colgate	Norfolk St.	Troy	New Orleans	Florida A&M

Best of the Rest

69	Notre Dame
70	Michigan
71	Florida State
72	Mississippi State
73	SMU
74	Belmont
75	Drake
76	Washington St.

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Tuesday, February 1, 2022

Home	Visitors	Spread
Virginia	Boston College	7.9
Connecticut	Creighton	10.2
Iowa St.	Kansas	-3.7
Maryland	Michigan St.	-4.2
Tennessee	Texas A&M	11.5
Siena	Canisius	3.3
Duquesne	Richmond	-6.8
St. Bonaventure	Davidson	1.5
Western Michigan	Northern Illinois	0.3
Ohio	Ball St.	12.6
Eastern Michigan	Toledo	-11.6
Central Michigan	Bowling Green	-6.4
Miami (O)	Kent St.	0.8
Mississippi St.	South Carolina	7.7
Northwestern	Rutgers	6.5
Louisville	North Carolina	-3.9
Georgetown	Seton Hall	-8.3
Auburn	Alabama	7.1
Texas Tech	Texas	4.6
St. John’s	Providence	0.8
LSU	Mississippi	15.0
Wichita St.	Tulsa	8.4
Utah St.	Air Force	16.5
Michigan	Nebraska	15.0
Stanford	California	5.6
UC Riverside	UC Davis	7.0
UNLV	Nevada	4.2
San Jose St.	Fresno St.	-12.0

PiRate Ratings Bracketology–January 7, 2022

Date	1/7/2022
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Baylor	Gonzaga	Houston	Arizona
2	Kansas	Villanova	Auburn	LSU
3	Duke	Purdue	Texas	Tennessee
4	Illinois	Michigan St.	USC	Kentucky
5	Alabama	UCLA	Connecticut	Iowa St.
6	Wisconsin	Xavier	Ohio St.	Texas Tech
7	Loyola (Chi.)	Seton Hall	BYU	Indiana
8	Iowa	Colorado St.	W. Virginia	N. Carolina
9	Oklahoma	Va.Tech	San Francisco	Mississippi St.
10	Providence	TCU	Florida	Wake Forest
11	Saint Mary’s	Michigan	San Diego St.	Memphis	Texas A&M	Clemson
12	Chattanooga	Belmont	Davidson	UAB
13	Iona	Ohio	Vermont	Towson
14	Wagner	South Dakota St.	Navy	Oakland
15	Grand Canyon	UC-Irvine	Liberty	Princeton
16	Louisiana	Weber St.	Nicholls St.	Gardner-Webb	Texas Southern	Howard

First Four Out

Creighton

Louisville

Florida St.

Cincinnati

Next Four Out

Minnesota

Wyoming

Boise St.

Washington St.

Process: The PiRate Ratings use a combination of NET Rankings, Computer Rankings, Strength of Schedule, Strength of Wins, The Eye-Test, and unfortunately Politics to attempt to mimic what the NCAA Selection Committee does leading up to Selection Sunday.

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Wednesday, February 24, 2021

Home	Visitor	Spread
Davidson	St. Bonaventure	-1.0
George Mason	George Washington	6.5
Saint Joseph’s	Dayton	-8.8
La Salle	Duquesne	-4.3
South Florida	Temple	3.8
Memphis	Tulane	11.7
Tulsa	Cincinnati	1.2
Wake Forest	Clemson	-6.0
Virginia	NC St.	8.7
Miami (Fla.)	Florida St.	-12.5
North Carolina	Marquette	8.9
Butler	Seton Hall	-6.7
Creighton	DePaul	13.6
Providence	Xavier	-0.8
Southern Utah	Northern Arizona	11.8
Longwood	Hampton	8.8
Rutgers	Indiana	3.1
Ball St.	Kent St.	-4.6
UNC Central	North Carolina A&T	2.8
Norfolk St	Delaware St.	14.2
Air Force	New Mexico	0.1
UNLV	Fresno St.	5.8
Boston University	Holy Cross	5.4
Loyola (MD)	American	3.6
Mississippi St.	South Carolina	3.5
Arkansas	Alabama	-2.0
Vanderbilt	Tennessee	-6.8
Furman	The Citadel	12.8
Mercer	Chattanooga	2.5
UNCG	Western Carolina	11.9
Northwestern St.	Stephen F. Austin	-7.4
SE Louisiana	McNeese	4.2
Texas A&M-CC	New Orleans	-0.4
Nicholls	Houston Baptist	10.5
Incarnate Word	Lamar	4.5
Abilene Christian	Sam Houston St.	8.1
Southern	Alabama A&M	6.4
Alcorn St.	Alabama St.	5.7

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For March 4, 2020

Wednesday’s Games

 

Home	Visitor	Spread
Arkansas	LSU	2.8
Auburn	Texas A&M	12.7
Butler	St. John’s	7.6
Central Florida	SMU	-0.2
Charlotte	North Texas	-3.9
Colorado St.	Wyoming	14.3
Creighton	Georgetown	8.9
Eastern Illinois	Jacksonville St.	4.8
Fresno St.	Air Force	4.0
George Mason	Saint Louis	-2.8
George Washington	Fordham	5.7
Georgia	Florida	-2.2
Georgia Tech	Pittsburgh	6.7
Incarnate Word	Houston Baptist	2.8
Indiana	Minnesota	2.9
Iona	Quinnipiac	5.5
Kansas	TCU	18.2
La Salle	Massachusetts	3.3
Long Island	Fairleigh Dickinson	4.8
Louisiana Tech	Florida Intl.	9.2
Marist	Canisius	0.2
Marshall	Florida Atlantic	5.6
Miami (Fla.)	Virginia	-1.4
Middle Tennessee	UTEP	-2.4
Monmouth	Fairfield	8.0
New Mexico	San Jose St.	10.5
Nicholls	McNeese	5.9
Northwestern St.	New Orleans	3.4
Notre Dame	Florida St.	-2.7
Oklahoma St.	Kansas St.	6.2
Old Dominion	UTSA	4.6
Ole Miss	Missouri	4.3
Providence	Xavier	3.1
Rhode Island	Dayton	-4.1
Rider	Manhattan	7.6
Robert Morris	St. Francis (NY)	8.6
Sacred Heart	Mount St. Mary’s	8.6
Seton Hall	Villanova	4.3
Siena	Niagara	10.7
Southeast Louisiana	Central Arkansas	-3.4
Southern Miss	Rice	-0.5
St. Bonaventure	Saint Joseph’s	11.8
St. Francis (PA)	Bryant	6.5
Temple	Tulsa	2.0
Tennessee St.	Morehead St.	6.1
Texas A&M-CC	Sam Houston St.	-2.8
UC Irvine	Cal St. Northridge	12.8
Virginia Tech	Clemson	0.9
Wisconsin	Northwestern	13.5

 

Key TV Games on Wednesday

 

Time (EST)	Network	Home	Visitor
6:30 PM	FS1	Providence	Xavier
7:00 PM	SECN	Arkansas	LSU
8:00 PM	ESPN+	Kansas	TCU
8:30 PM	FS1	Seton Hall	Villanova
9:00 PM	CBSSN	Rhode Island	Dayton

 

Conference Tournament Section

 

Tuesday’s Results

 

Atlantic Sun Tournament
Quarterfinals
Winner	Score	Loser	Score
Liberty	55	NJIT	49
Stetson	82	North Alabama	72
Lipscomb	68	Florida Gulf Coast	63
North Florida	91	Jacksonville	88

 

Semifinals	March 5	at Higher Seed’s Home Court
Home	Visitor	Time (ET)	TV
1 Liberty (28-4)	4 Stetson (16-16)	7:00 PM	ESPN+
2 North Florida (21-11)	3 Lipscomb (15-15)	7:00 PM	ESPN+

 

 

Big South Tournament
1st Round
Winner	Score	Loser	Score
USC Upstate	69	High Point	59
UNC-Asheville	72	Campbell	68
Charleston Southern	81	Presbyterian	64

 

Quarterfinals	March 5	at #1 Seed Radford
Team	Team	Time (ET)	TV
2 Winthrop (21-10)	7 USC Upstate (13-19)	12:00 PM	ESPN3
3 Gardner-Webb (15-15)	6 UNC-Asheville (15-15)	2:00 PM	ESPN3
1 Radford (20-10)	8 Charleston Southern (14-17)	6:00 PM	ESPN3
4 Longwood (14-17)	5 Hampton (13-18)	8:00 PM	ESPN3

 

 

Horizon League Tournament
1st Round
Winner	Score	Loser	Score
Illinois Chicago	93	IUPUI	59
Youngstown St.	63	Milwaukee	57
Oakland	80	Cleveland St.	59

 

Quarterfinals	March 5	at Higher Seed’s Home Court
Home	Visitor	Time (ET)	TV
3 Green Bay (16-15)	6 Oakland (14-18)	8:00 PM	ESPN+
4 Illinois Chicago (15-17)	5 Youngstown (18-14)	8:00 PM	ESPN+

 

Patriot League Tournament
1st Round
Winner	Score	Loser	Score
Bucknell	65	Holy Cross	62
Lehigh	78	Loyola (MD)	75

 

Quarterfinals	March 5	at Higher Seed’s Home Court
Home	Visitor	Time (ET)	TV
2 American (16-13)	7 Bucknell (13-19)	7:00 PM	Pat League Network
3 Boston U (18-13)	6 Navy (14-15)	7:00 PM	Pat League Network
4 Army (15-14)	5 Lafayette (18-11)	7:00 PM	Pat League Network
1 Colgate (23-8)	8 Lehigh (11-20)	7:00 PM	Pat League Network

 

 

Tournaments Beginning Wednesday

 

Mountain West Tournament
1st Round	March 4	Las Vegas (Thomas & Mack Center)
Team	Team	Time (ET)	TV
8 Fresno St. (11-18)	9 Air Force (11-19)	3:00 PM	Mountain West Net.
7 New Mexico (18-13)	10 San Jose St. (7-23)	5:30 PM	Mountain West Net.
6 Colorado St. (20-11)	11 Wyoming (7-23)	8:00 PM	Mountain West Net.

 

 

Northeast Tournament
Quarterfinals	March 4	at Higher Seed’s Home Court
Home	Visitor	Time (ET)	TV
1 Robert Morris (17-14)	8 St. Francis (NY) (13-17)	7:00 PM	http://necfrontrow.com/
2 St. Francis (PA) (20-9)	7 Bryant (15-16)	7:00 PM	http://necfrontrow.com/
3 Sacred Heart (19-12)	6 Mount St. Mary’s (11-20)	7:00 PM	http://necfrontrow.com/
4 Long Island (14-17)	5 Fairleigh-Dickinson (11-18)	7:00 PM	http://necfrontrow.com/

 

 

Ohio Valley Tournament
1st Round	March 4	Evansville, IN (Ford Center)
Team	Team	Time (ET)	TV
5 Tennessee St. (17-14)	8 Morehead St. (13-18)	7:30 PM	ESPN+
6 Eastern Illinois (16-14)	7 Jacksonville St. (13-18)	9:30 PM	ESPN+