The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 26, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Sunday, March 26, 2023

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:00 am
HomeVisitorSpread
San Diego St.Creighton-1.7
TexasMiami (Fla)5.3

For Bracketnomics Comparisons, check out yesterday’s publication: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2023/03/25/pirate-ratings-college-basketball-saturday-march-25-2023/

March 25, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Saturday, March 25, 2023



HomeVisitorSpread
Kansas St.Florida Atlantic0.8
ConnecticutGonzaga1.2

Bracketnomics Comparisons

StatSDSUCreighton
O-RTG7022
D-RTG414
SOS57.959.3
3-Pt34.935.8
O-Reb32.025.2
2PT%D49.345.9
FTR33.328.6
R+T Rate9.00.1
Old R+T13.78.6
Marg8.88.3
Win Strk7 & 68 & 6
Pre25YESYES
ChampYESNo
Coach Exp3: 0-310: 1S16
3 UpperYESNO
F/C 20-12NOYES
DBLFIG15
OReb32.025.2
OStl10.47.2
OTurn15.114.9
DReb25.723.2
DStl9.38.6
DTurn17.212.4
Reb Marg4.63.9
Stl/G7.05.1
D Stl6.36.0
TO Marg1.3-1.8

Creighton is the slight favorite in this criteria, but it isn’t by much. If not for overall strength of schedule, the Aztecs would have the advantage due to better steal rate and turnover rate, the two criteria that are showing up to be more important this year than an average year. SDSU beat Alabama, because they jumped the passing lanes and won the R+T battle with ease.


StatFAUKansas St.
O-RTG2635
D-RTG2927
SOS50.558.5
3-Pt36.534.0
O-Reb31.430.4
2PT%D44.749.1
FTR28.936.2
R+T Rate8.71.6
Old R+T16.06.4
Marg13.26.6
Win Strk20 & 109 & 6
Pre25NONO
ChampYESNo
Coach Exp00
3 UpperNOYES
F/C 20-12NOYES
DBLFIG33
OReb31.430.4
OStl9.511.0
OTurn14.517.0
DReb25.129.9
DStl8.210.2
DTurn15.918.0
Reb Marg5.71.4
Stl/G6.57.9
D Stl5.67.3
TO Marg0.90.9

Florida Atlantic overcame Tennessee’s inside advantage in the Sweet 16, but we have seen the Vols’ inconsistent play all year and don’t think it was entirely the Owls’ defense that eliminated Tennessee’s biggest advantage. Kansas State also has the inside advantage, by even more than that enjoyed by UT. This looks like the end of a great mid-major run for FAU, as Kansas State has enough advantage here to make their first Final Four since Tex Winter and his triple post offense guided the Wildcats to the 1964 Final Four.


StatMiamiTexas
O-RTG615
D-RTG10410
SOS56.160.0
3-Pt37.034.5
O-Reb31.928.2
2PT%D51.547.3
FTR30.230.7
R+T Rate6.13.7
Old R+T11.08.0
Marg7.710.6
Win Strk9 & 77 & 6
Pre25NOYES
ChampCoYES
Coach Exp10 & 1FF0
3 UpperNOYES
F/C 20-12NONO
DBLFIG44
OReb31.928.2
OStl10.411.2
OTurn14.014.3
DReb28.429.1
DStl8.58.1
DTurn15.719.5
Reb Marg3.0-0.3
Stl/G7.27.9
D Stl5.95.7
TO Marg1.34.3

On paper, this is an exciting tossup that could go down to the last minute. However, there is a huge question mark in this game. Texas may not have the services of 6 foot 9 inch forward Dylan Disu, who has been the Longhorns’ best player down the stretch. They dismissed Xavier with Disu playing less than a minute before further injuring his leg.

If Disu cannot play, Miami can ramp up the tempo in this game and wear Texas down. Without Disu, Texas has a major liability on the glass, and they will have to force a lot of turnovers to make up for Miami’s potential extra shot attempts.

Jim Larranaga has taken a team to the Final Four once before, and he did so with a low major team beating the overall number one seed to get there. Miami made it this far last year. It looks favorable for Hurricane Warnings to go up in Houston next week.


StatConnecticutGonzaga
O-RTG31
D-RTG1373
SOS58.557.5
3-Pt36.438.6
O-Reb38.931.8
2PT%D45.050.3
FTR30.933.6
R+T Rate15.011.4
Old R+T21.218.8
Marg14.013.9
Win Strk14 & 612 & 11
Pre25NOYES
ChampNoYES
Coach Exp4: 0-422 & 2FF
3 UpperNOYES
F/C 20-12YESYES
DBLFIG34
OReb38.931.8
OStl9.310.2
OTurn15.913.1
DReb25.925.0
DStl9.87.3
DTurn16.616.5
Reb Marg9.45.9
Stl/G6.47.4
D Stl6.75.3
TO Marg-0.12.6

As far as the Bracketnomics are concerned, this may be the real National Championship Game. The two best offenses left in the field and two of the three best overall face off. But, UConn also has a top 20 defense, which is how most National Champions look–top 10 offense and top 20 defense.

Still, this game is not a slam dunk easy win for UConn. Gonzaga has a coach with a lot more tournament experience with two recent Final Fours and with players that have played in the National Championship on this roster. Gonzaga was a pre-season top 25 team, while the Huskies were not, and almost every past national champion was ranked in the pre-season.

The one stat that really concerns us is the turnover margin. As we told you above, turnover margin and steals have been considerably more important this year than an average year. UConn has a negative turnover margin and has a propensity to be a little too gracious throwing the ball to the wrong-colored jerseys. If Gonzaga can get 8 or more steals and force 14 or more turnovers in this game, they will likely win. If the Huskies can limit Bulldog steals to 6 or less, and they commit 12 or fewer turnovers, they will win. If it’s somewhere in between, this game could come down to a last second shot or even overtime.

March 24, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Friday, March 24, 2023

HomeVisitorSpread
AlabamaSan Diego St.7.6
HoustonMiami (Fla)7.7
CreightonPrinceton10.6
TexasXavier3.2

February 14, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Tuesday, February 14, 2023

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:00 am
HomeVisitorSpread
AuburnMissouri5.7
Ball St.Northern Illinois8.0
Bowling GreenCentral Michigan5.3
DePaulSt. John’s-1.8
DukeNotre Dame14.2
Eastern MichiganAkron-9.4
GeorgiaLSU3.7
MassachusettsLoyola (Chi)5.0
New MexicoWyoming11.6
OhioBuffalo4.1
OklahomaKansas St.-1.6
Oklahoma St.Kansas-0.7
Penn St.Illinois-1.7
PittsburghBoston College11.9
ProvidenceCreighton-1.2
RutgersNebraska12.5
Seton HallGeorgetown13.6
South CarolinaVanderbilt-6.1
SyracuseNorth Carolina St.-1.8
ToledoMiami (O)14.9
UNLVSan Jose St.6.8
Utah St.Air Force13.4
ValparaisoSouthern Illinois-5.7
VillanovaButler6.9
Western MichiganKent St.-13.0
WisconsinMichigan1.1

February 7, 2022

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date2/7/2022
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaAuburnPurdueKentucky
2KansasArizonaBaylorDuke
3Texas TechHoustonIllinoisProvidence
4Michigan St.WisconsinUCLAVillanova
5MarquetteTennesseeTexasOhio St.
6XavierLSUConnecticutAlabama
7USCIndianaSaint Mary’sIowa St.
8ArkansasTCUIowaBoise St.
9Wake ForestMurray St.San FranciscoWyoming
10Loyola (Chi.)BYUDavidsonSeton Hall
11Colorado St.OregonMiami (Fla.)North Carolina
12IonaNorth TexasNotre DameCreightonFloridaBelmont
13OhioChattanoogaVermontSouth Dakota St.
14New Mexico St.WagnerWeber St.Cal St. Fullerton
15LongwoodJacksonville St.Cleveland St.Yale
16ColgateUNC WilmingtonNorfolk St.Appalachian St.New OrleansSouthern

Best of the Rest

69San Diego St.
70Saint Louis
71Mississippi State
72SMU
73Washington St.
74Michigan
75Florida State
76Oklahoma

February 4, 2022

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date2/4/2022
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaAuburnPurdueBaylor
2KansasArizonaKentuckyUCLA
3DukeTexas TechHoustonVillanova
4Michigan St.WisconsinIllinoisProvidence
5XavierMarquetteOhio St.LSU
6TennesseeAlabamaTexasConnecticut
7Iowa St.USCIndianaIowa
8Saint Mary’sTCUArkansasSan Francisco
9Loyola (Chi.)Wake ForestMurray St.Wyoming
10Boise St.BYUSeton HallDavidson
11OregonColorado St.OklahomaSan Diego St.
12IonaNorth TexasCreightonMiami (Fla.)North CarolinaFlorida
13ToledoFurmanVermontSouth Dakota St.
14New Mexico St.WagnerTowsonLiberty
15OaklandWeber St.LongwoodCal St. Fullerton
16YaleColgateNorfolk St.TroyNew OrleansFlorida A&M

Best of the Rest

69Notre Dame
70Michigan
71Florida State
72Mississippi State
73SMU
74Belmont
75Drake
76Washington St.

February 1, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Tuesday, February 1, 2022

HomeVisitorsSpread
VirginiaBoston College7.9
ConnecticutCreighton10.2
Iowa St.Kansas-3.7
MarylandMichigan St.-4.2
TennesseeTexas A&M11.5
SienaCanisius3.3
DuquesneRichmond-6.8
St. BonaventureDavidson1.5
Western MichiganNorthern Illinois0.3
OhioBall St.12.6
Eastern MichiganToledo-11.6
Central MichiganBowling Green-6.4
Miami (O)Kent St.0.8
Mississippi St.South Carolina7.7
NorthwesternRutgers6.5
LouisvilleNorth Carolina-3.9
GeorgetownSeton Hall-8.3
AuburnAlabama7.1
Texas TechTexas4.6
St. John’sProvidence0.8
LSUMississippi15.0
Wichita St.Tulsa8.4
Utah St.Air Force16.5
MichiganNebraska15.0
StanfordCalifornia5.6
UC RiversideUC Davis7.0
UNLVNevada4.2
San Jose St.Fresno St.-12.0

January 7, 2022

PiRate Ratings Bracketology–January 7, 2022

Date1/7/2022
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1BaylorGonzagaHoustonArizona
2KansasVillanovaAuburnLSU
3DukePurdueTexasTennessee
4IllinoisMichigan St.USCKentucky
5AlabamaUCLAConnecticutIowa St.
6WisconsinXavierOhio St.Texas Tech
7Loyola (Chi.)Seton HallBYUIndiana
8IowaColorado St.W. VirginiaN. Carolina
9OklahomaVa.TechSan FranciscoMississippi St.
10ProvidenceTCUFloridaWake Forest
11Saint Mary’sMichiganSan Diego St.MemphisTexas A&MClemson
12ChattanoogaBelmontDavidsonUAB
13IonaOhioVermontTowson
14WagnerSouth Dakota St.NavyOakland
15Grand CanyonUC-IrvineLibertyPrinceton
16LouisianaWeber St.Nicholls St.Gardner-WebbTexas SouthernHoward

First Four Out

Creighton
Louisville
Florida St.
Cincinnati

Next Four Out

Minnesota
Wyoming
Boise St.
Washington St.

Process: The PiRate Ratings use a combination of NET Rankings, Computer Rankings, Strength of Schedule, Strength of Wins, The Eye-Test, and unfortunately Politics to attempt to mimic what the NCAA Selection Committee does leading up to Selection Sunday.

February 24, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Wednesday, February 24, 2021

HomeVisitorSpread
DavidsonSt. Bonaventure-1.0
George MasonGeorge Washington6.5
Saint Joseph’sDayton-8.8
La SalleDuquesne-4.3
South FloridaTemple3.8
MemphisTulane11.7
TulsaCincinnati1.2
Wake ForestClemson-6.0
VirginiaNC St.8.7
Miami (Fla.)Florida St.-12.5
North CarolinaMarquette8.9
ButlerSeton Hall-6.7
CreightonDePaul13.6
ProvidenceXavier-0.8
Southern UtahNorthern Arizona11.8
LongwoodHampton8.8
RutgersIndiana3.1
Ball St.Kent St.-4.6
UNC CentralNorth Carolina A&T2.8
Norfolk StDelaware St.14.2
Air ForceNew Mexico0.1
UNLVFresno St.5.8
Boston UniversityHoly Cross5.4
Loyola (MD)American3.6
Mississippi St.South Carolina3.5
ArkansasAlabama-2.0
VanderbiltTennessee-6.8
FurmanThe Citadel12.8
MercerChattanooga2.5
UNCGWestern Carolina11.9
Northwestern St.Stephen F. Austin-7.4
SE LouisianaMcNeese4.2
Texas A&M-CCNew Orleans-0.4
NichollsHouston Baptist10.5
Incarnate WordLamar4.5
Abilene ChristianSam Houston St.8.1
SouthernAlabama A&M6.4
Alcorn St.Alabama St.5.7

March 4, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For March 4, 2020

Wednesday’s Games

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Arkansas

LSU

2.8

Auburn

Texas A&M

12.7

Butler

St. John’s

7.6

Central Florida

SMU

-0.2

Charlotte

North Texas

-3.9

Colorado St.

Wyoming

14.3

Creighton

Georgetown

8.9

Eastern Illinois

Jacksonville St.

4.8

Fresno St.

Air Force

4.0

George Mason

Saint Louis

-2.8

George Washington

Fordham

5.7

Georgia

Florida

-2.2

Georgia Tech

Pittsburgh

6.7

Incarnate Word

Houston Baptist

2.8

Indiana

Minnesota

2.9

Iona

Quinnipiac

5.5

Kansas

TCU

18.2

La Salle

Massachusetts

3.3

Long Island

Fairleigh Dickinson

4.8

Louisiana Tech

Florida Intl.

9.2

Marist

Canisius

0.2

Marshall

Florida Atlantic

5.6

Miami (Fla.)

Virginia

-1.4

Middle Tennessee

UTEP

-2.4

Monmouth

Fairfield

8.0

New Mexico

San Jose St.

10.5

Nicholls

McNeese

5.9

Northwestern St.

New Orleans

3.4

Notre Dame

Florida St.

-2.7

Oklahoma St.

Kansas St.

6.2

Old Dominion

UTSA

4.6

Ole Miss

Missouri

4.3

Providence

Xavier

3.1

Rhode Island

Dayton

-4.1

Rider

Manhattan

7.6

Robert Morris

St. Francis (NY)

8.6

Sacred Heart

Mount St. Mary’s

8.6

Seton Hall

Villanova

4.3

Siena

Niagara

10.7

Southeast Louisiana

Central Arkansas

-3.4

Southern Miss

Rice

-0.5

St. Bonaventure

Saint Joseph’s

11.8

St. Francis (PA)

Bryant

6.5

Temple

Tulsa

2.0

Tennessee St.

Morehead St.

6.1

Texas A&M-CC

Sam Houston St.

-2.8

UC Irvine

Cal St. Northridge

12.8

Virginia Tech

Clemson

0.9

Wisconsin

Northwestern

13.5

 

Key TV Games on Wednesday

 

Time (EST)

Network

Home

Visitor

6:30 PM

FS1

Providence

Xavier

7:00 PM

SECN

Arkansas

LSU

8:00 PM

ESPN+

Kansas

TCU

8:30 PM

FS1

Seton Hall

Villanova

9:00 PM

CBSSN

Rhode Island

Dayton

 

Conference Tournament Section

 

Tuesday’s Results

 

Atlantic Sun Tournament 

Quarterfinals

Winner

Score

Loser

Score

Liberty

55

NJIT

49

Stetson

82

North Alabama

72

Lipscomb

68

Florida Gulf Coast

63

North Florida

91

Jacksonville

88

 

Semifinals

March 5

at Higher Seed’s Home Court

Home

Visitor

Time (ET)

TV

1 Liberty (28-4)

4 Stetson (16-16)

7:00 PM

ESPN+

2 North Florida (21-11)

3 Lipscomb (15-15)

7:00 PM

ESPN+

 

 

Big South Tournament

1st Round

Winner

Score

Loser

Score

USC Upstate

69

High Point

59

UNC-Asheville

72

Campbell

68

Charleston Southern

81

Presbyterian

64

 

Quarterfinals

March 5

at #1 Seed Radford

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

2 Winthrop (21-10)

7 USC Upstate (13-19)

12:00 PM

ESPN3

3 Gardner-Webb (15-15)

6 UNC-Asheville (15-15)

2:00 PM

ESPN3

1 Radford (20-10)

8 Charleston Southern (14-17)

6:00 PM

ESPN3

4 Longwood (14-17)

5 Hampton (13-18)

8:00 PM

ESPN3

 

 

Horizon League Tournament

1st Round

Winner

Score

Loser

Score

Illinois Chicago

93

IUPUI

59

Youngstown St.

63

Milwaukee

57

Oakland

80

Cleveland St.

59

 

Quarterfinals

March 5

at Higher Seed’s Home Court

Home

Visitor

Time (ET)

TV

3 Green Bay (16-15)

6 Oakland (14-18)

8:00 PM

ESPN+

4 Illinois Chicago (15-17)

5 Youngstown (18-14)

8:00 PM

ESPN+

 

Patriot League Tournament

1st Round

Winner

Score

Loser

Score

Bucknell

65

Holy Cross

62

Lehigh

78

Loyola (MD)

75

 

Quarterfinals

March 5

at Higher Seed’s Home Court

Home

Visitor

Time (ET)

TV

2 American (16-13)

7 Bucknell (13-19)

7:00 PM

Pat League Network

3 Boston U (18-13)

6 Navy (14-15)

7:00 PM

Pat League Network

4 Army (15-14)

5 Lafayette (18-11)

7:00 PM

Pat League Network

1 Colgate (23-8)

8 Lehigh (11-20)

7:00 PM

Pat League Network

 

 

Tournaments Beginning Wednesday

 

Mountain West Tournament

1st Round

March 4

Las Vegas (Thomas & Mack Center)

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

8 Fresno St. (11-18)

9 Air Force (11-19)

3:00 PM

Mountain West Net.

7 New Mexico (18-13)

10 San Jose St. (7-23)

5:30 PM

Mountain West Net.

6 Colorado St. (20-11)

11 Wyoming (7-23)

8:00 PM

Mountain West Net.

 

 

Northeast Tournament

Quarterfinals

March 4

at Higher Seed’s Home Court

Home

Visitor

Time (ET)

TV

1 Robert Morris (17-14)

8 St. Francis (NY) (13-17)

7:00 PM

http://necfrontrow.com/

2 St. Francis (PA) (20-9)

7 Bryant (15-16)

7:00 PM

http://necfrontrow.com/

3 Sacred Heart (19-12)

6 Mount St. Mary’s (11-20)

7:00 PM

http://necfrontrow.com/

4 Long Island (14-17)

5 Fairleigh-Dickinson (11-18)

7:00 PM

http://necfrontrow.com/

 

 

Ohio Valley Tournament

1st Round

March 4

Evansville, IN (Ford Center)

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

5 Tennessee St. (17-14)

8 Morehead St. (13-18)

7:30 PM

ESPN+

6 Eastern Illinois (16-14)

7 Jacksonville St. (13-18)

9:30 PM

ESPN+

 

 

 

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