The Pi-Rate Ratings

April 6, 2020

The Greatest NCAA Tournament That Never Was–National Championship Game

1974 North Carolina St. Wolf Pack

vs.

1968 UCLA Bruins

 

How They Got Here

 

North Carolina St.

Defeated 1999 Duke  94-72

Defeated 1980 Louisville 96-82

Defeated 1978 Kentucky 82-70

Defeated 2019 Virginia 75-64

Defeated 2018 Villanova 97-75

 

UCLA

Defeated 1973 Providence  91-70

Defeated 1962 Cincinnati 75-59

Defeated 2015 Duke  83-57

Defeated 1968 Houston 99-92

Defeated 1972 UCLA  95-92

The Starting Lineups For Tonight’s Championship Game

 

North Carolina St. Wolf Pack

Center–Tom Burleson  7-2  Sr.  from Newland, North Carolina

Forward–Tim Stoddard 6-7 Jr. from East Chicago, Indiana

Forward–David Thompson 6-4 Jr. from Shelby, North Carolina

Guard–Moe Rivers  6-1 Jr. from  Brooklyn, New York

Guard–Monte Towe  5-7 Jr.  from Converse, Indiana

The Wolf Pack are coached by Norm Sloan

 

UCLA Bruins

Center–Kareem Abdul-Jabbar  7-2  Jr. from New York, New York

Forward–Mike Lynn 6-7 Sr. from Covina, California

Forward–Lynn Shackelford  6-5 Jr. from Burbank, California

Guard–Lucius Allen 6-2 Jr. from Kansas City, Kansas

Guard–Michael Warren  5-11 Sr. from South Bend, Indiana

The Bruins are coached by John Wooden

 

And Your Winner is: UCLA

 

1968 UCLA

104

1974 North Carolina St.

77

Boxscore

1968 UCLA

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

C

13

20

0

0

4

6

6

14

20

3

0

7

3

3

30

Mike Lynn

F

4

10

0

0

1

2

2

12

14

1

2

2

1

4

9

Lynn Shackleford

F

4

11

0

2

2

2

1

6

7

2

1

0

2

3

10

Lucius Allen

G

7

16

3

9

3

5

0

3

3

5

3

0

2

2

20

Mike Warren

G

8

18

3

7

3

4

0

2

2

4

2

0

4

2

22

Jim Nielsen

1

2

0

0

0

0

1

2

3

1

0

1

0

2

2

Kenny Heitz

2

5

1

3

2

2

0

1

1

3

2

0

1

0

7

Bill Sweek

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

Gene Sutherland

1

2

0

1

0

0

0

1

1

1

1

0

1

1

2

Neville Saner

1

2

0

0

0

0

1

3

4

0

0

0

1

1

2

Team

3

Totals

41

87

7

22

15

21

11

44

58

20

11

10

15

19

104

 

 

 

North Carolina St.

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Tom Burleson

C

4

9

0

0

1

2

1

6

7

4

0

2

2

4

9

Tim Stoddard

F

5

14

0

0

0

0

2

8

10

0

0

0

4

5

10

David Thompson

F

7

17

3

8

4

5

2

10

12

3

2

1

5

3

21

Mo Rivers

G

3

11

2

7

2

3

1

4

5

2

1

0

3

1

10

Monte Towe

G

3

10

2

7

4

4

0

2

2

3

1

0

5

2

12

Phil Spence

2

4

0

0

1

2

1

3

4

0

0

0

1

3

5

Mark Moeller

2

5

1

3

2

4

0

1

1

0

0

0

1

1

7

Greg Hawkins

1

3

1

3

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

0

2

0

3

Steve Nuce

0

2

0

0

0

0

0

2

2

0

0

0

0

1

0

Dwight Johnson

0

1

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Team

4

Totals

27

76

9

29

14

20

7

36

47

13

5

3

23

20

77

Player of the Game

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

 

Score By Halves

Team

1

2

Final

UCLA

50

54

104

N.C. State

38

39

77

 

This concludes the Greatest NCAA Tournament That Was Never Played.  Our Congratulations go to the 1968 UCLA Bruins, the best college basketball team in the last 60 years, at least according to the tabletop basketball strategy board game.

 

The PiRates are now headed out to sea to find some remote Pacific Island until August.  Hopefully, there will be a college  and NFL football season that start as scheduled.  If not, we will have alternate programming when we return to land.

April 4, 2020

The Greatest NCAA Tournament That Never Was–Final Four Saturday

It is hard to believe that this would be the day of the National Semifinals of the Final Four in Atlanta.  Somehow, it feels like the end of the college basketball season was several months ago.  Thursday, March 12, 2020, was the day that a Big East Conference Tournament game between Creighton and St. John’s played the first half and went to the locker rooms never to be seen again, well at least not to finish the game at Madison Square Garden.

In the 23 days since, so much has happened globally that all cancelled sports seem to be just a speck of dust in the importance of every day life.  Most of us are now on house arrest for a crime that somebody else committed.  The punishment for violating this arrest could be death, to us or somebody we care about.  Basketball, and all other sports, doesn’t really seem to matter that much.

We thought about suspending this tournament, as it would be apropos.  We even thought about turning this entire site into a “how to grow a quick vegetable garden” with the most nutrient dense foods you can grow in your yard or patio.  But, we figured that if you have suddenly changed careers to small farmer, you probably already have done hours of research; the majority of you reading this site are analytical in nature.  That’s the perfect general description, and analytical people, like all of us on the PiRate ship, study and study and study before undertaking new endeavors.

Truth be told, our Captain, and his lady have been “farming” for 40 years.  The real reason this conclusion to this simulation almost didn’t happen was that the Captain was busy planting kale, collards, kohlrabi, lettuce, radishes, and several other early Spring crops in the ground while the monsoonal rains took a short hiatus.  These two games were just played early this morning, so the results are delayed being uploaded.

If this is your first time to this site, what you see here is a tabletop board game simulation of the Greatest Teams in College Basketball between 1960 and 2019.  We put them in a standard 68-team tournament just like the current March Madness.  All teams in this tournament received 3-point shooting ratings, even if they played in an era without the 3-point shot.  Outside shooting range was used to estimate the percentage of made shots and frequency taken of players from pre-1987.  For example, had we made a 1966 Kentucky Wildcats team, Louie Dampier’s 3-point shooting percentage would have been about 48%, and his frequency of 3-point shot attempts to 2-point shot attempts would have been about 40% to 60%.

What type of board game was used for this simulation?  The Captain is a wizard at code-breaking.  As early as the late 1960’s, he was buying tabletop games like Strat-o-Matic Baseball and cracking the codes and making his own teams.

In the late 1970’s, The Avalon Hill Company put out a new game called, “Statis-Pro Basketball.”  This was an NBA strategy game, and the Captain, now in college, quickly cracked the codes that rated the players. Soon, he began making college basketball teams.  It wasn’t so easy then to do this, because the Internet did not exist, and there were no periodicals that printed the statistics of the players.  He had to spend hours in a large university library looking at microfilmed old copies of multiple newspapers to get the stats he needed.  It wasn’t 100% accurate, as he had to do a lot of estimating, but it was close enough.

When the Internet brought sites like Sports-reference to peoples’ desktop computers, the Captain spend a lot of his hard-earned money on printing cartridges and created his own printed depository of statistics.  He was able to modify the ratings on all the players that played college basketball and were represented in his team cards, and the game became more accurate.

So, that’s where we are today.  There are four teams remaining,  Here are our Final Four participants.

 

East Region Champion: 1974 North Carolina State Wolf Pack

South Region Champion: 2018 Villanova Wildcats

Midwest Region Champion: 1968 UCLA Bruins

West Region Champion: 1972 UCLA Bruins

 

Note: You see two different shades of pale blue for UCLA above.  Between 1968 and 1972, the Bruins slightly darkened this blue color.

 

Here are the results of the Final Four Games:

 

Tiny Towe Towers over ‘Nova

 

1974 North Carolina St.

97

2018 Villanova

75

 

Monte Towe scored 20 points along with 8 assists and 6 steals, as the 1974 national champion Wolf Pack pulled away from the 2018 national champions in the second half.  Leading 60-56, North Carolina State scored 11 consecutive points to open a 71-56 lead.  Villanova never cut the lead to single digits, and after the Wildcats began to foul, NC State extended the lead past 20 points by connecting on 14 of their final 16 foul shots.

 

Boxscore

North Carolina St.

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Tom Burleson

C

7

13

0

0

4

6

3

6

9

1

0

4

4

3

18

Tim Stoddard

F

6

10

0

0

3

4

2

8

10

0

1

1

2

1

15

David Thompson

F

7

14

2

5

5

7

3

5

8

2

2

2

3

2

21

Mo Rivers

G

4

11

2

7

3

5

1

3

4

3

2

0

1

3

13

Monte Towe

G

5

9

3

6

7

9

0

2

2

8

6

0

2

1

20

Phil Spence

1

2

0

0

2

2

1

3

4

1

0

0

0

3

4

Mark Moeller

1

3

0

1

1

2

0

2

2

2

0

0

1

1

3

Steve Nuce

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

0

1

0

1

1

0

Greg Hawkins

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

0

3

Team

4

Totals

32

64

8

20

25

35

10

30

44

18

12

7

14

15

97

 

 

 

Villanova

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Omari Spellman

C

2

5

1

3

1

2

2

5

7

0

0

2

4

5

6

Eric Paschall

F

5

14

1

4

0

0

2

3

5

2

0

0

3

5

11

Michael Bridges

F

5

11

2

5

2

3

2

7

9

3

2

0

5

4

14

Phil Booth

G

4

11

2

7

4

5

1

4

5

3

1

0

1

4

14

Jalen Brunson

G

4

10

2

6

3

4

0

3

3

4

1

0

5

3

13

Donte DiVincenzo

4

8

2

5

2

2

0

2

2

1

1

0

2

2

12

Collin Gillespie

2

5

1

3

0

0

0

1

1

0

0

0

1

5

5

Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

1

0

0

0

0

1

0

Tim Delaney

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

0

1

0

0

2

0

Jermaine Samuels

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

Team

3

Totals

26

65

11

33

12

16

8

26

37

13

6

2

21

32

75

Player of the Game

Monte Towe

 

Score By Halves

Team

1

2

Final

N. C. State

51

46

97

Villanova

44

31

75

 

68 Bruins Kareem 72 Bruins

 

1968 UCLA

95

1972 UCLA

92

 

In a game that had more comebacks than Frank Sinatra, the 1968 UCLA Bruins took the lead late and kept it over their four year later counterpart.  The game was fast-paced and exciting with neither team enjoying a lead of more than eight points.

In the first half, the 1972 Bruins took an early 9-4 lead on baskets by Greg Lee and Larry Farmer.  The 1968 squad staged a comeback following a Lucius Allen made three-pointer, and then after a block by Kareem Abdul Jabbar on a shot attempt by Jamaal Wilkes, Mike Warren retrieved the rebound and found Mike Lynn open for a basket.  Lynn was fouled and made the foul shot to tie the game at 9-9.

The remainder of the first half was close with the lead changing hands six times.  On the last possession of the half, 1972’s Tommy Curtis sunk a three-point shot at the buzzer (the last card in the deck), as the 72’s took a 49-46 lead into the locker.

The 1968 Bruins grabbed the lead at 59-58, and then the 1972 team went on a 10-2 run to take a 68-61 lead, their biggest lead of the day.  At that point, the 1968 team, not noted for pressing like many other John Wooden-coached teams, decided to press full court, and they forced the 1972 Bruins into 6 turnovers in the next 9 possessions.  This allowed the 1968 team to make a 14-3 run to take a 75-71 lead.

The 1972 team was not done.  The 1968 team went cold at this point and missed five consecutive shots.  Bill Walton rebounded four of these missed shots, and the 1972 Bruins’ fast break produced eight points off the misses.  The 1972 team ran off 10 consecutive points to go ahead 81-75.

At this point, the 1968 team decided to sink or swim with its big star, the hero that won three national championship in three years in real life.  Jabbar took the 1968 team’s next five shots, hitting four, while the 1972 team committed three turnovers.  The 1972 Bruins enjoyed a 13-4 run to go ahead 88-85, and they held on to the lead for the remainder of the game.

 

Boxscore

1968 UCLA

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

C

8

15

0

0

4

7

5

14

19

1

1

5

2

3

20

Mike Lynn

F

6

13

1

2

3

4

1

8

9

2

3

0

5

2

16

Lynn Shackleford

F

4

11

1

4

2

2

0

5

5

0

2

0

4

4

11

Lucius Allen

G

6

14

2

5

3

5

1

4

5

5

4

0

3

4

17

Mike Warren

G

6

14

3

7

5

6

0

2

2

6

2

0

2

1

20

Jim Nielsen

2

5

0

0

0

0

2

4

6

1

0

1

2

3

4

Kenny Heitz

3

8

1

3

0

0

1

2

3

2

1

0

3

4

7

Team

3

Totals

35

80

8

21

17

24

10

39

52

17

13

6

21

21

95

1972 UCLA

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Bill Walton

C

7

13

0

0

3

5

4

11

15

3

2

3

4

5

17

Jamaal Wilkes

F

5

11

2

5

3

4

3

9

12

1

1

1

2

3

15

Larry Farmer

F

4

9

1

3

0

0

1

5

6

0

0

0

6

2

9

Greg Lee

G

4

14

2

8

4

5

1

4

5

2

3

0

3

2

14

Henry Bibby

G

5

12

2

6

5

6

0

3

3

4

2

0

5

3

17

Tommy Curtis

4

11

2

7

3

4

0

1

1

3

2

0

2

2

13

Larry Hollyfield

2

5

1

3

0

0

1

2

3

2

1

0

2

3

5

Swen Nater

1

2

0

0

0

0

1

2

3

0

0

1

1

2

2

Team

3

Totals

32

77

10

32

18

24

11

37

51

15

11

5

25

22

92

Player of the Game

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

 

Score By Halves

Team

1

2

Final

1968 UCLA

46

49

95

1972 UCLA

49

43

92

 

National Championship Game Monday Night

 

1974 North Carolina State Wolf Pack vs. 1968 UCLA Bruins

 

 

March 28, 2020

The Greatest NCAA Tournament That Never Was–Elite 8 Saturday

We are down to the Elite 8, and after today’s East and South Regional Finals, there will be six teams left in the field.  We’re just 24 hours away from knowing which of these best teams of all time (1960-2019) will make the Final Four.

If you haven’t been following this simulation since its beginning, we took 68 of the best NCAA basketball teams between 1960 and 2019.  No school could have teams from consecutive seasons, or else this would have been the UCLA Invitational.

The games were simulated by actually playing the college made version of Statis-Pro Basketball, a game made by Avalon Hill and Sports Illustrated between the 1970’s and 1980’s.  Our Captain solved the codes for that game and applied them to college.

Here are the results for the East and South Region Championships.

 

EAST REGION

 

Wolf Pack Dominates On Boards/Towe Magnificent

 

1974 North Carolina St.

75

2019 Virginia

64

In it’s first three games in this tournament, Virginia had been able to limit turnovers and force the opponent into bad shots.  In the Elite 8, the Cavaliers committed just seven turnovers, but they could not prevent North Carolina State from getting open shots.  Thanks to point guard Monte Towe’s excellent passing, the Wolf Pack shooters were open more often than a normal UVa opponent.

Towe dished out 10 assists in the game, five in both halves.  Towe also contributed 22  points, hitting all eight of his foul shots in the second half when North Carolina State increased their lead from five to 11 points.

Boxscore

North Carolina St.

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Tom Burleson

C

8

13

0

0

4

6

4

6

10

0

0

3

2

2

20

Tim Stoddard

F

2

5

0

0

2

3

1

7

8

1

0

1

1

2

6

David Thompson

F

5

11

1

3

6

8

3

7

10

2

1

2

2

2

17

Mo Rivers

G

2

7

1

4

1

2

0

3

3

1

1

0

2

3

6

Monte Towe

G

5

12

4

9

8

9

0

1

1

10

2

0

3

0

22

Phil Spence

1

2

0

0

0

0

0

2

2

0

0

1

0

1

2

Greg Hawkins

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

2

3

0

0

0

1

0

0

Steve Nuce

1

2

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

0

0

0

0

2

2

Mark Moeller

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

0

0

0

0

1

0

Team

3

Totals

24

52

6

16

21

28

9

30

39

14

4

7

11

13

75

 

 

 

Virginia

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Mamadi Diakete

C

1

3

0

0

0

0

2

2

4

0

0

1

0

5

2

De’Andre Hunter

F

2

7

0

3

3

4

1

4

5

1

0

0

2

4

7

Ty Jerome

F

5

12

2

6

3

4

0

4

4

6

1

0

2

5

15

Kyle Guy

G

6

14

3

8

3

3

0

4

4

2

0

0

1

4

18

Kihei Clark

G

2

5

1

2

0

0

0

1

1

3

1

0

1

3

5

Braxton Key

5

9

1

2

1

2

1

4

5

0

1

0

1

2

12

Jack Salt

2

5

0

0

1

2

0

3

3

1

0

0

0

2

5

Jay Huff

0

2

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

Team

2

Totals

23

57

7

22

11

15

4

22

28

13

3

1

7

26

64

Player of the Game

Monte Towe

Score By Halves

Team

1

2

Final

N. C. State

34

41

75

Virginia

31

33

64

 

 

WEST REGION

 

Brunson and Bridges Bring Back The Wildcats

 

2018 Villanova

75

1970 UCLA

69

 

Trailing by six points eight minutes into the final half, Villanova’s Jalen Brunson and Michael Bridges scored a combined 19 points to bring the Wildcats back into the lead at 68-67 with less than two minutes remaining.  Foul shooting and multiple missed three point shots sent the Bruins back to Westwood.

 

Boxscore

Villanova

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Omari Spellman

C

0

2

0

1

0

0

2

4

6

0

0

1

1

5

0

Eric Paschall

F

2

5

1

3

6

6

1

5

6

0

0

2

0

2

11

Michael Bridges

F

7

12

3

5

5

5

1

7

8

0

0

0

2

1

22

Phil Booth

G

2

4

2

3

4

6

0

2

2

3

1

1

2

2

10

Jalen Brunson

G

7

17

3

5

6

8

0

1

1

6

2

0

2

3

23

Donte DiVincenzo

2

6

1

4

2

3

0

2

2

3

1

0

3

1

7

Collin Gillespie

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree

1

4

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

0

1

0

0

1

2

Team

3

Totals

21

50

10

21

23

28

4

22

29

12

5

4

10

15

75

 

 

 

UCLA

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Steve Patterson

C

5

11

0

0

2

2

2

7

9

1

0

1

2

4

12

Sidney Wicks

F

7

15

0

2

3

5

4

8

12

3

1

2

5

4

17

Curtis Rowe

F

6

12

1

3

2

3

2

8

10

1

2

0

2

4

15

John Vallely

G

4

8

2

6

3

4

0

2

2

5

1

0

3

3

13

Henry Bibby

G

4

10

2

7

2

2

1

1

2

2

1

0

2

4

12

John Ecker

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

3

0

Jon Chapman

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

0

Bill Seibert

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

3

0

Team

3

Totals

26

56

5

18

12

16

9

26

38

12

5

3

15

26

69

Player of the Game

Jalen Brunson

 

 

Score By Halves

Team

1

2

Final

Villanova

40

35

75

UCLA

41

28

69

 

Coming Tomorrow: The Midwest and West Region Finals

 

Midwest Region Championship: 1968 UCLA vs. 1968 Houston

West Region Championship: 1972 UCLA vs. 1982 North Carolina

 

March 9, 2020

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For March 9, 2020

Date

3/9/2020

Seed

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

1

Kansas

Gonzaga

Dayton

Baylor

2

San Diego St.

Florida St.

Villanova

Creighton

3

Duke

Kentucky

Seton Hall

Maryland

4

Michigan St.

Louisville

Oregon

Wisconsin

5

Ohio St.

Auburn

Butler

BYU

6

West Virginia

Iowa

Penn St.

Illinois

7

Virginia

Colorado

Michigan

Arizona

8

Houston

Providence

LSU

Florida

9

Saint Mary’s

USC

Marquette

Oklahoma

10

Arizona St.

Rutgers

Texas Tech

UTAH ST.

11

East Tennessee St.

Indiana

Stanford

Xavier

Cincinnati

12

Yale

Stephen F. Austin

LIBERTY

Richmond

Wichita St.

13

Vermont

Akron

North Texas

New Mexico St.

14

BRADLEY

BELMONT

Hofstra

Colgate

15

UC-Irvine

Wright St.

Little Rock

E.  Washington

16

North Dakota St.

WINTHROP

Siena

Prairie View

St. Francis (PA)

N. Carolina A&T

Teams in all CAPS have earned automatic bids

 

The Bubble

 

Last Four BYES: Rutgers, Texas Tech, Indiana, and Stanford

Last Four IN: Xavier, Cincinnati, Richmond, and Wichita St.

 

First Four OUT: UCLA, Texas, North Carolina St., and Mississippi St.

Next Four OUT: Rhode Island, Northern Iowa, Arkansas, and Memphis

March 6, 2020

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For March 6, 2020

Date

3/6/2020

Seed

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

1

Kansas

Gonzaga

Baylor

San Diego St.

2

Dayton

Florida St.

Villanova

Seton Hall

3

Duke

Maryland

Louisville

Michigan St.

4

Kentucky

Creighton

Oregon

Ohio St.

5

Penn St.

Auburn

Iowa

Butler

6

Wisconsin

BYU

Colorado

Michigan

7

West Virginia

Arizona

Illinois

Marquette

8

Houston

Virginia

Saint Mary’s

LSU

9

USC

Florida

Arizona St.

Providence

10

Texas Tech

Indiana

Oklahoma

Xavier

11

Rutgers

Stanford

E. Tennessee St.

Texas

UCLA

12

Yale

S. F. Austin

Liberty

Cincinnati

Utah St.

13

Vermont

Akron

North Texas

Loyola (Chi.)

14

New Mexico St.

Hofstra

Belmont

Colgate

15

Little Rock

Wright St.

UC-Irvine

S. Dakota St.

16

Montana

Radford

Prairie View

Siena

St. Francis (PA)

UNC Central

The Bubble

 

Last 4 IN: Texas, UCLA, Cincinnati, Utah St.

First 4 Out: North Carolina St., Wichita St., Richmond, Arkansas

Next 4 Out: Rhode Island, Memphis, Purdue, Saint Louis

 

Needing a miracle but probably headed to the NIT: Northern Iowa, which lost by 21 to Drake in the Missouri Valley Conference Quarterfinal Round today.

February 21, 2020

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For February 21, 2020

Date

2/21/2020

Seed

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

1

Baylor

Gonzaga

Kansas

San Diego St.

2

Duke

Dayton

Maryland

Florida St.

3

Seton Hall

Creighton

Louisville

Villanova

4

Penn St.

West Virginia

Kentucky

Colorado

5

Oregon

Auburn

Butler

Iowa

6

Michigan St.

Arizona

Ohio St.

Marquette

7

Michigan

BYU

Houston

Wisconsin

8

Illinois

LSU

Texas Tech

Rutgers

9

Saint Mary’s

Xavier

Florida

Rhode Island

10

Arizona St.

Wichita St.

Oklahoma

Virginia

11

USC

Indiana

Northern Iowa

USC

12

Liberty

Yale

Utah St.

N. Carolina St.

Richmond

Cincinnati

13

Stephen F. Austin

Vermont

North Texas

Akron

14

New Mexico St.

Colgate

Wright St.

Hofstra

15

South Dakota St.

UC-Irvine

Little Rock

Montana

16

Winthrop

Austin Peay

Prairie View

Siena

St. Francis (PA)

Norfolk St.

 

Bubble Contenders

 

69

Georgetown

70

Purdue

71

Mississippi St.

72

Stanford

73

Providence

74

South Carolina

75

Arkansas

76

Alabama

77

UNC Greensboro

78

Memphis

The First Four

Opening Round in Dayton

12 Seed Game: Utah St. vs. Cincinnati

12 Seed Game: North Carolina St. vs. Richmond

16 Seed Game: Norfolk St. vs. Prairie View

16 Seed Game: Siena vs. St. Francis (PA)

February 16, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For February 16, 2020

Sunday’s Games

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Boise St.

San Diego St.

-6.8

Boston College

North Carolina St.

-5.0

California

Arizona St.

-5.8

Connecticut

Memphis

1.9

Drake

Evansville

9.9

East Carolina

Cincinnati

-10.6

Fordham

Duquesne

-8.2

Indiana St.

Missouri St.

5.2

Iona

Marist

7.1

Loyola (MD)

Colgate

-6.9

Maine

Albany

-3.7

Michigan

Indiana

6.3

Minnesota

Iowa

2.0

Niagara

Monmouth

-2.4

Northern Kentucky

Illinois Chicago

9.9

Omaha

Denver

9.4

Oregon

Utah

12.3

Rider

Quinnipiac

6.5

Saint Peter’s

Fairfield

6.6

Siena

Manhattan

6.4

South Dakota St.

Purdue Fort Wayne

12.4

Temple

Villanova

-6.0

Wichita St.

Tulane

15.9

Wright St.

IUPUI

17.8

 

Sunday’s Key Games *

 

Time (EST)

Network

Home

Visitor

1:00 PM

FS1

Minnesota

Iowa

1:00 PM

CBS

Michigan

Indiana

2:00 PM

ESPN3

Siena

Manhattan

4:00 PM

CBSSN

Boise St.

San Diego St.

* When we refer to these as key games, this is when both teams are fighting for a conference championship or contending for an at-large NCAA Tournament bid.

 

Coming Monday–Updated Ratings, Monday’s Games, and New Bracketology.

 

 

 

January 24, 2020

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For January 24 , 2020

Date

1/24/2020

Seed

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

1

Baylor

Gonzaga

San Diego St.

Kansas

2

Florida St.

Duke

Michigan St.

Seton Hall

3

West Virginia

Louisville

Oregon

Dayton

4

Villanova

Butler

Maryland

Iowa

5

Kentucky

Arizona

Auburn

Colorado

6

Creighton

Penn St.

Wisconsin

Marquette

7

LSU

Rutgers

Illinois

Wichita St.

8

Ohio St.

Stanford

Indiana

Arkansas

9

Houston

Michigan

USC

Florida

10

Memphis

Texas Tech

BYU

Saint Mary’s

11

Oklahoma

North Carolina St.

East Tennessee St.

Virginia Tech

VCU

12

Liberty

Akron

North Texas

Minnesota

DePaul

13

Stephen F. Austin

New Mexico St.

Vermont

Harvard

14

Loyola (Chi.)

Colgate

William & Mary

Wright St.

15

Little Rock

UC-Irvine

Murray St.

South Dakota St.

16

Montana

Winthrop

Monmouth

Norfolk St.

Long Island

Prairie View

 

First Four Out

Georgetown

Richmond

Purdue

Xavier

 

Next Four Out

Tennessee

Alabama

Rhode Island

Northern Iowa

 

 

 

 

 

September 27, 2019

PiRate Ratings Special Money Line Play(s)

Last Friday, we issued a special Money Line Parlay play that went off at +250, and it won.  We had help getting the five winning teams at relatively low odds together.  But, it was up to us to put the parlay together, as none of the “Sharps” that tutored us on how to play smarter actually ended up with this parlay (until one person saw it on this site and did play a small wager on it.

This week, we are swimming in the deep end without the swim instructors.  Can we find another rare gem with a big payout?  We doubt it, but here goes any way.

Remember, the members of the PiRate Ratings NEVER wager money on the picks we issue; actually, we just don’t wager at all, and if you are planning to wager real money, please do not do so based on what you read here.

Even the top Sharps that are now teaching us more about what we have been doing wrong in recent years only win about 62 to 65% of their wagers, and they wager 10-20 games a week.  If you took their advice but only chose a couple of their wagers, the chances that you’d win big would be minimal, because they have to play double digit games a week to avoid risk and let the law of averages tilt to their side.

Since only about 1% of those that wager regularly are profitable, and since 99% of these winners wouldn’t think of giving you advice, realize that practically every service out there that is marketing their talents to you are profiting off your money and not their wagers.  If they were really successful players, they would never offer their advice to the public.  They’d keep it to themselves and selfishly continue to win.

Now that you know that we are giving you these picks, you should understand these two things.

  1. We are not part of the 1% of Sharps that enjoy 6-figure and 7-figure annual careers, as we do not wager one cent.

  2. Our selections provided to you for free are worth exactly what you paid for it.  If we really knew what we were doing, then we might be in Las Vegas with some of our friends placing wagers and never telling anybody else what we selected.

 

This week’s theme is trying to find incredible value betting a parlay of underdogs.  We looked at all the college games this week and isolated on five teams we believe stand decent chances to win outright as underdogs.  

We actually issued individual Money Line selections on each of these five teams in individual plays, because we feel like three of these teams should pull the actual upset.

The five games where we have studied the personnel groupings and looked for extras like teams playing a sandwich game between two more important games involve these games.

 

Marshall over Cincinnati

Duke over Virginia Tech

Kansas State over Oklahoma State

Baylor over Iowa State

North Carolina State over Florida State.

 

You can play each of these game as singular money line plays and get better than +120 odds on each team.

At the time of this writing, you can get Duke at +125 at a couple of the big books in Nevada.  You can get North Carolina State at +210.  Both Marshall and Kansas State can be found at +165.  Baylor can be wagered at +130.

What if you began combining these teams into 2 or 3 game parlays?  The potential odds are incredible.  Yes, the potential for winning is minimal, but for a little pretend money, you could make a pretend killing if you pick the right 2 or 3 teams.

There’s the rub.  If you play all five teams as single money line upset choices, you stand a decent chance of making a minor imaginary profit.  But, if just one of the potential big payout parlays pays off, you could make five times what you put in.

Let’s look at some examples.  We can’t list them all, as there are too many combinations.

 

 

2-Game Parlays

Marshall over Cincinnati and Duke over Virginia Tech: +485

Marshall over Cincinnati and Kansas St. over Oklahoma St.: +496

Kansas St. over Oklahoma St. & North Carolina St. over Florida St.: +722

 

 

3-Game Parlays

Kansas St. over Oklahoma St., Baylor over Iowa St., & NC ST. over Florida St.: +1790

Marshall, Kansas St., and North Carolina St. all in upset wins: +2036

Have fun making combinations of these games.  Here’s the complete crazy parlay where you combine all five of these teams.

If you bet Marshall, Kansas St., North Carolina St., Baylor, and Duke all to win in upsets, the money line parlay payout would be:

 

+10953

Yes, if you were crazy enough to put $100 in Nevada on these five teams to win in upset games, and all five pulled off their upsets, you would cash a winning ticket of $11,053!

If you only put $10 on this parlay, you could cash $1,105.

If you just put that same dollar you use playing Mega Millions, and it won, you’d pocket more than $110, and your chances to win on this parlay are multitudes better than winning the lottery.

—————————————————————————————————————————————-

Did you hear about the guy that bet 89 cents on a ton of games last week on a parlay, and won every game heading into Monday Night Football.  Had the Washington Redskins won that final bet for him, he would have taken that 89 cents and cashed in a half million dollars!

When the Bears won the game, the naive media announced that the poor sap lost.  Without knowing for sure, we bet that this guy won big, maybe even 6-figures.

The media is never the best place to receive information on anything.  In this case, we are confident that the bettor hedged his wager on Monday morning.  Obviously, he probably didn’t have $100,000 to invest on the MNF game, but he probably found a willing money lender to purchase that ticket for 100 grand.

If you had $100,000, and you bought that ticket, then the guy that spent 89 cents just won $99,999.19 on his wager, and he leaves quite happy as a big winner, at least until he realizes his tax bracket just went way up.

The person that bought that potential half-million dollar ticket then played as many different tickets he needed on Monday afternoon until he had $200,000 in wagers on the Bears.  It would have taken him going to multiple books, but it is easily done.

Let’s look at the money lender on Monday afternoon.

  1. $100,000 spent buying the ticket

  2. $200,000 spent buying tickets on the Bears.

If the Redskins had won the last game on that parlay, the lender collects the half million dollar payout and profits by $200,000 since he invested $300,000.

If the Bears had won (which they did), then the half-million dollar parlay is trashed, but the lender cashes in a winning ticket on his Bears bet and receives $400,000.  The profit is only $100,000 in this case.

Technically, the lender could have places additional bets on the Redskins, which would have brought his guaranteed payout to around $135,000 no matter what the outcome, but we just wanted to show you an example in hedging to get a guaranteed win.

If you had a 50% chance of realizing a 33% of 67% return on your investment in 24 hours, you are guaranteeing yourself an average ROI of 50% in one day!  Now, how many of you with some seed money are planning to relocate to Nevada and do some hedge playing?  Alas, we here are more like the 89 cent investor.

March 17, 2019

PiRate Ratings FINAL Bracketology For 2019

Sunday, March 17, 2019

Seed

Team

Team

Team

Team

1

Duke

Virginia

Gonzaga

North Carolina

2

Michigan St.

Tennessee

Michigan

Kentucky

3

Houston

Florida St.

Texas Tech

LSU

4

Purdue

Kansas St.

Wisconsin

Kansas

5

Auburn

Villanova

Virginia Tech

Iowa St.

6

Buffalo

Mississippi St.

Cincinnati

Marquette

7

Wofford

Maryland

Louisville

Nevada

8

Iowa

Seton Hall

Minnesota

Central Florida

9

Ole Miss

Syracuse

Baylor

Washington

10

Virginia Commonwealth

Utah St.

Florida

Oklahoma

11

Oregon

Ohio St.

Temple/Arizona St.

St. John’s/TCU

12

Saint Mary’s

Murray St.

New Mexico St.

Vermont

13

Liberty

UC-Irvine

Old Dominion

Montana

14

Saint Louis

Northeastern

Northern Kentucky

Georgia St.

15

Yale

Bradley

Colgate

Abilene Christian

16

Gardner-Webb

Prairie View A&M

Iona/Fairleigh-Dickinson

N. Dakota St./UNC Central

 

Last Four Byes

Virginia Commonwealth

Florida

Oklahoma

Ohio St.

 

Last Four In

Temple

St. John’s

TCU

Arizona St.

 

First Four Out

North Carolina St.

Belmont

UNC Greensboro

Furman

 

Next Four Out

Indiana

Alabama

Clemson

Texas

 

Bids By Conference

Conference

Bids

Big Ten

8

ACC

7

SEC

7

Big 12

7

Big East

4

AAC

4

Pac-12

3

MWC

2

West Coast

2

Atlantic 10

2

One-Bid Leagues

22

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