The Greatest NCAA Tournament That Never Was–Final Four Saturday

It is hard to believe that this would be the day of the National Semifinals of the Final Four in Atlanta.  Somehow, it feels like the end of the college basketball season was several months ago.  Thursday, March 12, 2020, was the day that a Big East Conference Tournament game between Creighton and St. John’s played the first half and went to the locker rooms never to be seen again, well at least not to finish the game at Madison Square Garden.

In the 23 days since, so much has happened globally that all cancelled sports seem to be just a speck of dust in the importance of every day life.  Most of us are now on house arrest for a crime that somebody else committed.  The punishment for violating this arrest could be death, to us or somebody we care about.  Basketball, and all other sports, doesn’t really seem to matter that much.

We thought about suspending this tournament, as it would be apropos.  We even thought about turning this entire site into a “how to grow a quick vegetable garden” with the most nutrient dense foods you can grow in your yard or patio.  But, we figured that if you have suddenly changed careers to small farmer, you probably already have done hours of research; the majority of you reading this site are analytical in nature.  That’s the perfect general description, and analytical people, like all of us on the PiRate ship, study and study and study before undertaking new endeavors.

Truth be told, our Captain, and his lady have been “farming” for 40 years.  The real reason this conclusion to this simulation almost didn’t happen was that the Captain was busy planting kale, collards, kohlrabi, lettuce, radishes, and several other early Spring crops in the ground while the monsoonal rains took a short hiatus.  These two games were just played early this morning, so the results are delayed being uploaded.

If this is your first time to this site, what you see here is a tabletop board game simulation of the Greatest Teams in College Basketball between 1960 and 2019.  We put them in a standard 68-team tournament just like the current March Madness.  All teams in this tournament received 3-point shooting ratings, even if they played in an era without the 3-point shot.  Outside shooting range was used to estimate the percentage of made shots and frequency taken of players from pre-1987.  For example, had we made a 1966 Kentucky Wildcats team, Louie Dampier’s 3-point shooting percentage would have been about 48%, and his frequency of 3-point shot attempts to 2-point shot attempts would have been about 40% to 60%.

What type of board game was used for this simulation?  The Captain is a wizard at code-breaking.  As early as the late 1960’s, he was buying tabletop games like Strat-o-Matic Baseball and cracking the codes and making his own teams.

In the late 1970’s, The Avalon Hill Company put out a new game called, “Statis-Pro Basketball.”  This was an NBA strategy game, and the Captain, now in college, quickly cracked the codes that rated the players. Soon, he began making college basketball teams.  It wasn’t so easy then to do this, because the Internet did not exist, and there were no periodicals that printed the statistics of the players.  He had to spend hours in a large university library looking at microfilmed old copies of multiple newspapers to get the stats he needed.  It wasn’t 100% accurate, as he had to do a lot of estimating, but it was close enough.

When the Internet brought sites like Sports-reference to peoples’ desktop computers, the Captain spend a lot of his hard-earned money on printing cartridges and created his own printed depository of statistics.  He was able to modify the ratings on all the players that played college basketball and were represented in his team cards, and the game became more accurate.

So, that’s where we are today.  There are four teams remaining,  Here are our Final Four participants.

 

East Region Champion: 1974 North Carolina State Wolf Pack

South Region Champion: 2018 Villanova Wildcats

Midwest Region Champion: 1968 UCLA Bruins

West Region Champion: 1972 UCLA Bruins

 

Note: You see two different shades of pale blue for UCLA above.  Between 1968 and 1972, the Bruins slightly darkened this blue color.

 

Here are the results of the Final Four Games:

 

Tiny Towe Towers over ‘Nova

 

1974 North Carolina St.	97
2018 Villanova	75

 

Monte Towe scored 20 points along with 8 assists and 6 steals, as the 1974 national champion Wolf Pack pulled away from the 2018 national champions in the second half.  Leading 60-56, North Carolina State scored 11 consecutive points to open a 71-56 lead.  Villanova never cut the lead to single digits, and after the Wildcats began to foul, NC State extended the lead past 20 points by connecting on 14 of their final 16 foul shots.

 

Boxscore
North Carolina St.	Start	FG	FGA	3P	3PA	FT	FTA	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
Tom Burleson	C	7	13	0	0	4	6	3	6	9	1	0	4	4	3	18
Tim Stoddard	F	6	10	0	0	3	4	2	8	10	0	1	1	2	1	15
David Thompson	F	7	14	2	5	5	7	3	5	8	2	2	2	3	2	21
Mo Rivers	G	4	11	2	7	3	5	1	3	4	3	2	0	1	3	13
Monte Towe	G	5	9	3	6	7	9	0	2	2	8	6	0	2	1	20
Phil Spence		1	2	0	0	2	2	1	3	4	1	0	0	0	3	4
Mark Moeller		1	3	0	1	1	2	0	2	2	2	0	0	1	1	3
Steve Nuce		0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0
Greg Hawkins		1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	3
Team										4
Totals		32	64	8	20	25	35	10	30	44	18	12	7	14	15	97
Villanova	Start	FG	FGA	3P	3PA	FT	FTA	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
Omari Spellman	C	2	5	1	3	1	2	2	5	7	0	0	2	4	5	6
Eric Paschall	F	5	14	1	4	0	0	2	3	5	2	0	0	3	5	11
Michael Bridges	F	5	11	2	5	2	3	2	7	9	3	2	0	5	4	14
Phil Booth	G	4	11	2	7	4	5	1	4	5	3	1	0	1	4	14
Jalen Brunson	G	4	10	2	6	3	4	0	3	3	4	1	0	5	3	13
Donte DiVincenzo		4	8	2	5	2	2	0	2	2	1	1	0	2	2	12
Collin Gillespie		2	5	1	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	1	5	5
Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree		0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
Tim Delaney		0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	2	0
Jermaine Samuels		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team										3
Totals		26	65	11	33	12	16	8	26	37	13	6	2	21	32	75
Player of the Game	Monte Towe

 

Score By Halves
Team	1	2	Final
N. C. State	51	46	97
Villanova	44	31	75

 

68 Bruins Kareem 72 Bruins

 

1968 UCLA	95
1972 UCLA	92

 

In a game that had more comebacks than Frank Sinatra, the 1968 UCLA Bruins took the lead late and kept it over their four year later counterpart.  The game was fast-paced and exciting with neither team enjoying a lead of more than eight points.

In the first half, the 1972 Bruins took an early 9-4 lead on baskets by Greg Lee and Larry Farmer.  The 1968 squad staged a comeback following a Lucius Allen made three-pointer, and then after a block by Kareem Abdul Jabbar on a shot attempt by Jamaal Wilkes, Mike Warren retrieved the rebound and found Mike Lynn open for a basket.  Lynn was fouled and made the foul shot to tie the game at 9-9.

The remainder of the first half was close with the lead changing hands six times.  On the last possession of the half, 1972’s Tommy Curtis sunk a three-point shot at the buzzer (the last card in the deck), as the 72’s took a 49-46 lead into the locker.

The 1968 Bruins grabbed the lead at 59-58, and then the 1972 team went on a 10-2 run to take a 68-61 lead, their biggest lead of the day.  At that point, the 1968 team, not noted for pressing like many other John Wooden-coached teams, decided to press full court, and they forced the 1972 Bruins into 6 turnovers in the next 9 possessions.  This allowed the 1968 team to make a 14-3 run to take a 75-71 lead.

The 1972 team was not done.  The 1968 team went cold at this point and missed five consecutive shots.  Bill Walton rebounded four of these missed shots, and the 1972 Bruins’ fast break produced eight points off the misses.  The 1972 team ran off 10 consecutive points to go ahead 81-75.

At this point, the 1968 team decided to sink or swim with its big star, the hero that won three national championship in three years in real life.  Jabbar took the 1968 team’s next five shots, hitting four, while the 1972 team committed three turnovers.  The 1972 Bruins enjoyed a 13-4 run to go ahead 88-85, and they held on to the lead for the remainder of the game.

 

Boxscore
1968 UCLA	Start	FG	FGA	3P	3PA	FT	FTA	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar	C	8	15	0	0	4	7	5	14	19	1	1	5	2	3	20
Mike Lynn	F	6	13	1	2	3	4	1	8	9	2	3	0	5	2	16
Lynn Shackleford	F	4	11	1	4	2	2	0	5	5	0	2	0	4	4	11
Lucius Allen	G	6	14	2	5	3	5	1	4	5	5	4	0	3	4	17
Mike Warren	G	6	14	3	7	5	6	0	2	2	6	2	0	2	1	20
Jim Nielsen		2	5	0	0	0	0	2	4	6	1	0	1	2	3	4
Kenny Heitz		3	8	1	3	0	0	1	2	3	2	1	0	3	4	7
Team										3
Totals		35	80	8	21	17	24	10	39	52	17	13	6	21	21	95
1972 UCLA	Start	FG	FGA	3P	3PA	FT	FTA	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
Bill Walton	C	7	13	0	0	3	5	4	11	15	3	2	3	4	5	17
Jamaal Wilkes	F	5	11	2	5	3	4	3	9	12	1	1	1	2	3	15
Larry Farmer	F	4	9	1	3	0	0	1	5	6	0	0	0	6	2	9
Greg Lee	G	4	14	2	8	4	5	1	4	5	2	3	0	3	2	14
Henry Bibby	G	5	12	2	6	5	6	0	3	3	4	2	0	5	3	17
Tommy Curtis		4	11	2	7	3	4	0	1	1	3	2	0	2	2	13
Larry Hollyfield		2	5	1	3	0	0	1	2	3	2	1	0	2	3	5
Swen Nater		1	2	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	0	1	1	2	2
Team										3
Totals		32	77	10	32	18	24	11	37	51	15	11	5	25	22	92
Player of the Game	Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

 

Score By Halves
Team	1	2	Final
1968 UCLA	46	49	95
1972 UCLA	49	43	92

 

National Championship Game Monday Night

 

1974 North Carolina State Wolf Pack vs. 1968 UCLA Bruins

 

 

The Greatest NCAA Tournament That Never Was–Elite 8 Saturday

We are down to the Elite 8, and after today’s East and South Regional Finals, there will be six teams left in the field.  We’re just 24 hours away from knowing which of these best teams of all time (1960-2019) will make the Final Four.

If you haven’t been following this simulation since its beginning, we took 68 of the best NCAA basketball teams between 1960 and 2019.  No school could have teams from consecutive seasons, or else this would have been the UCLA Invitational.

The games were simulated by actually playing the college made version of Statis-Pro Basketball, a game made by Avalon Hill and Sports Illustrated between the 1970’s and 1980’s.  Our Captain solved the codes for that game and applied them to college.

Here are the results for the East and South Region Championships.

 

EAST REGION

 

Wolf Pack Dominates On Boards/Towe Magnificent

 

1974 North Carolina St.	75
2019 Virginia	64

In it’s first three games in this tournament, Virginia had been able to limit turnovers and force the opponent into bad shots.  In the Elite 8, the Cavaliers committed just seven turnovers, but they could not prevent North Carolina State from getting open shots.  Thanks to point guard Monte Towe’s excellent passing, the Wolf Pack shooters were open more often than a normal UVa opponent.

Towe dished out 10 assists in the game, five in both halves.  Towe also contributed 22  points, hitting all eight of his foul shots in the second half when North Carolina State increased their lead from five to 11 points.

Boxscore
North Carolina St.	Start	FG	FGA	3P	3PA	FT	FTA	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
Tom Burleson	C	8	13	0	0	4	6	4	6	10	0	0	3	2	2	20
Tim Stoddard	F	2	5	0	0	2	3	1	7	8	1	0	1	1	2	6
David Thompson	F	5	11	1	3	6	8	3	7	10	2	1	2	2	2	17
Mo Rivers	G	2	7	1	4	1	2	0	3	3	1	1	0	2	3	6
Monte Towe	G	5	12	4	9	8	9	0	1	1	10	2	0	3	0	22
Phil Spence		1	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	1	0	1	2
Greg Hawkins		0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	0	0	1	0	0
Steve Nuce		1	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	2
Mark Moeller		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team										3
Totals		24	52	6	16	21	28	9	30	39	14	4	7	11	13	75
Virginia	Start	FG	FGA	3P	3PA	FT	FTA	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
Mamadi Diakete	C	1	3	0	0	0	0	2	2	4	0	0	1	0	5	2
De’Andre Hunter	F	2	7	0	3	3	4	1	4	5	1	0	0	2	4	7
Ty Jerome	F	5	12	2	6	3	4	0	4	4	6	1	0	2	5	15
Kyle Guy	G	6	14	3	8	3	3	0	4	4	2	0	0	1	4	18
Kihei Clark	G	2	5	1	2	0	0	0	1	1	3	1	0	1	3	5
Braxton Key		5	9	1	2	1	2	1	4	5	0	1	0	1	2	12
Jack Salt		2	5	0	0	1	2	0	3	3	1	0	0	0	2	5
Jay Huff		0	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team										2
Totals		23	57	7	22	11	15	4	22	28	13	3	1	7	26	64
Player of the Game	Monte Towe

Score By Halves
Team	1	2	Final
N. C. State	34	41	75
Virginia	31	33	64

 

 

WEST REGION

 

Brunson and Bridges Bring Back The Wildcats

 

2018 Villanova	75
1970 UCLA	69

 

Trailing by six points eight minutes into the final half, Villanova’s Jalen Brunson and Michael Bridges scored a combined 19 points to bring the Wildcats back into the lead at 68-67 with less than two minutes remaining.  Foul shooting and multiple missed three point shots sent the Bruins back to Westwood.

 

Boxscore
Villanova	Start	FG	FGA	3P	3PA	FT	FTA	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
Omari Spellman	C	0	2	0	1	0	0	2	4	6	0	0	1	1	5	0
Eric Paschall	F	2	5	1	3	6	6	1	5	6	0	0	2	0	2	11
Michael Bridges	F	7	12	3	5	5	5	1	7	8	0	0	0	2	1	22
Phil Booth	G	2	4	2	3	4	6	0	2	2	3	1	1	2	2	10
Jalen Brunson	G	7	17	3	5	6	8	0	1	1	6	2	0	2	3	23
Donte DiVincenzo		2	6	1	4	2	3	0	2	2	3	1	0	3	1	7
Collin Gillespie		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree		1	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	2
Team										3
Totals		21	50	10	21	23	28	4	22	29	12	5	4	10	15	75
UCLA	Start	FG	FGA	3P	3PA	FT	FTA	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
Steve Patterson	C	5	11	0	0	2	2	2	7	9	1	0	1	2	4	12
Sidney Wicks	F	7	15	0	2	3	5	4	8	12	3	1	2	5	4	17
Curtis Rowe	F	6	12	1	3	2	3	2	8	10	1	2	0	2	4	15
John Vallely	G	4	8	2	6	3	4	0	2	2	5	1	0	3	3	13
Henry Bibby	G	4	10	2	7	2	2	1	1	2	2	1	0	2	4	12
John Ecker		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0
Jon Chapman		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0
Bill Seibert		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0
Team										3
Totals		26	56	5	18	12	16	9	26	38	12	5	3	15	26	69
Player of the Game	Jalen Brunson

 

 

Score By Halves
Team	1	2	Final
Villanova	40	35	75
UCLA	41	28	69

 

Coming Tomorrow: The Midwest and West Region Finals

 

Midwest Region Championship: 1968 UCLA vs. 1968 Houston

West Region Championship: 1972 UCLA vs. 1982 North Carolina

 

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For March 9, 2020

Date	3/9/2020
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Kansas	Gonzaga	Dayton	Baylor
2	San Diego St.	Florida St.	Villanova	Creighton
3	Duke	Kentucky	Seton Hall	Maryland
4	Michigan St.	Louisville	Oregon	Wisconsin
5	Ohio St.	Auburn	Butler	BYU
6	West Virginia	Iowa	Penn St.	Illinois
7	Virginia	Colorado	Michigan	Arizona
8	Houston	Providence	LSU	Florida
9	Saint Mary’s	USC	Marquette	Oklahoma
10	Arizona St.	Rutgers	Texas Tech	UTAH ST.
11	East Tennessee St.	Indiana	Stanford	Xavier	Cincinnati
12	Yale	Stephen F. Austin	LIBERTY	Richmond	Wichita St.
13	Vermont	Akron	North Texas	New Mexico St.
14	BRADLEY	BELMONT	Hofstra	Colgate
15	UC-Irvine	Wright St.	Little Rock	E.  Washington
16	North Dakota St.	WINTHROP	Siena	Prairie View	St. Francis (PA)	N. Carolina A&T

Teams in all CAPS have earned automatic bids

 

The Bubble

 

Last Four BYES: Rutgers, Texas Tech, Indiana, and Stanford

Last Four IN: Xavier, Cincinnati, Richmond, and Wichita St.

 

First Four OUT: UCLA, Texas, North Carolina St., and Mississippi St.

Next Four OUT: Rhode Island, Northern Iowa, Arkansas, and Memphis

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For March 6, 2020

Date	3/6/2020
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Kansas	Gonzaga	Baylor	San Diego St.
2	Dayton	Florida St.	Villanova	Seton Hall
3	Duke	Maryland	Louisville	Michigan St.
4	Kentucky	Creighton	Oregon	Ohio St.
5	Penn St.	Auburn	Iowa	Butler
6	Wisconsin	BYU	Colorado	Michigan
7	West Virginia	Arizona	Illinois	Marquette
8	Houston	Virginia	Saint Mary’s	LSU
9	USC	Florida	Arizona St.	Providence
10	Texas Tech	Indiana	Oklahoma	Xavier
11	Rutgers	Stanford	E. Tennessee St.	Texas	UCLA
12	Yale	S. F. Austin	Liberty	Cincinnati	Utah St.
13	Vermont	Akron	North Texas	Loyola (Chi.)
14	New Mexico St.	Hofstra	Belmont	Colgate
15	Little Rock	Wright St.	UC-Irvine	S. Dakota St.
16	Montana	Radford	Prairie View	Siena	St. Francis (PA)	UNC Central

The Bubble

 

Last 4 IN: Texas, UCLA, Cincinnati, Utah St.

First 4 Out: North Carolina St., Wichita St., Richmond, Arkansas

Next 4 Out: Rhode Island, Memphis, Purdue, Saint Louis

 

Needing a miracle but probably headed to the NIT: Northern Iowa, which lost by 21 to Drake in the Missouri Valley Conference Quarterfinal Round today.

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For February 21, 2020

Date	2/21/2020
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Baylor	Gonzaga	Kansas	San Diego St.
2	Duke	Dayton	Maryland	Florida St.
3	Seton Hall	Creighton	Louisville	Villanova
4	Penn St.	West Virginia	Kentucky	Colorado
5	Oregon	Auburn	Butler	Iowa
6	Michigan St.	Arizona	Ohio St.	Marquette
7	Michigan	BYU	Houston	Wisconsin
8	Illinois	LSU	Texas Tech	Rutgers
9	Saint Mary’s	Xavier	Florida	Rhode Island
10	Arizona St.	Wichita St.	Oklahoma	Virginia
11	USC	Indiana	Northern Iowa	USC
12	Liberty	Yale	Utah St.	N. Carolina St.	Richmond	Cincinnati
13	Stephen F. Austin	Vermont	North Texas	Akron
14	New Mexico St.	Colgate	Wright St.	Hofstra
15	South Dakota St.	UC-Irvine	Little Rock	Montana
16	Winthrop	Austin Peay	Prairie View	Siena	St. Francis (PA)	Norfolk St.

 

Bubble Contenders

 

69	Georgetown
70	Purdue
71	Mississippi St.
72	Stanford
73	Providence
74	South Carolina
75	Arkansas
76	Alabama
77	UNC Greensboro
78	Memphis

The First Four

Opening Round in Dayton

12 Seed Game: Utah St. vs. Cincinnati

12 Seed Game: North Carolina St. vs. Richmond

16 Seed Game: Norfolk St. vs. Prairie View

16 Seed Game: Siena vs. St. Francis (PA)

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For February 16, 2020

Sunday’s Games

 

Home	Visitor	Spread
Boise St.	San Diego St.	-6.8
Boston College	North Carolina St.	-5.0
California	Arizona St.	-5.8
Connecticut	Memphis	1.9
Drake	Evansville	9.9
East Carolina	Cincinnati	-10.6
Fordham	Duquesne	-8.2
Indiana St.	Missouri St.	5.2
Iona	Marist	7.1
Loyola (MD)	Colgate	-6.9
Maine	Albany	-3.7
Michigan	Indiana	6.3
Minnesota	Iowa	2.0
Niagara	Monmouth	-2.4
Northern Kentucky	Illinois Chicago	9.9
Omaha	Denver	9.4
Oregon	Utah	12.3
Rider	Quinnipiac	6.5
Saint Peter’s	Fairfield	6.6
Siena	Manhattan	6.4
South Dakota St.	Purdue Fort Wayne	12.4
Temple	Villanova	-6.0
Wichita St.	Tulane	15.9
Wright St.	IUPUI	17.8

 

Sunday’s Key Games *

 

Time (EST)	Network	Home	Visitor
1:00 PM	FS1	Minnesota	Iowa
1:00 PM	CBS	Michigan	Indiana
2:00 PM	ESPN3	Siena	Manhattan
4:00 PM	CBSSN	Boise St.	San Diego St.

* When we refer to these as key games, this is when both teams are fighting for a conference championship or contending for an at-large NCAA Tournament bid.

 

Coming Monday–Updated Ratings, Monday’s Games, and New Bracketology.

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For January 24 , 2020

Date	1/24/2020
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Baylor	Gonzaga	San Diego St.	Kansas
2	Florida St.	Duke	Michigan St.	Seton Hall
3	West Virginia	Louisville	Oregon	Dayton
4	Villanova	Butler	Maryland	Iowa
5	Kentucky	Arizona	Auburn	Colorado
6	Creighton	Penn St.	Wisconsin	Marquette
7	LSU	Rutgers	Illinois	Wichita St.
8	Ohio St.	Stanford	Indiana	Arkansas
9	Houston	Michigan	USC	Florida
10	Memphis	Texas Tech	BYU	Saint Mary’s
11	Oklahoma	North Carolina St.	East Tennessee St.	Virginia Tech	VCU
12	Liberty	Akron	North Texas	Minnesota	DePaul
13	Stephen F. Austin	New Mexico St.	Vermont	Harvard
14	Loyola (Chi.)	Colgate	William & Mary	Wright St.
15	Little Rock	UC-Irvine	Murray St.	South Dakota St.
16	Montana	Winthrop	Monmouth	Norfolk St.	Long Island	Prairie View

 

First Four Out
Georgetown	Richmond	Purdue	Xavier

 

Next Four Out
Tennessee	Alabama	Rhode Island	Northern Iowa

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Special Money Line Play(s)

Last Friday, we issued a special Money Line Parlay play that went off at +250, and it won.  We had help getting the five winning teams at relatively low odds together.  But, it was up to us to put the parlay together, as none of the “Sharps” that tutored us on how to play smarter actually ended up with this parlay (until one person saw it on this site and did play a small wager on it.

This week, we are swimming in the deep end without the swim instructors.  Can we find another rare gem with a big payout?  We doubt it, but here goes any way.

Remember, the members of the PiRate Ratings NEVER wager money on the picks we issue; actually, we just don’t wager at all, and if you are planning to wager real money, please do not do so based on what you read here.

Even the top Sharps that are now teaching us more about what we have been doing wrong in recent years only win about 62 to 65% of their wagers, and they wager 10-20 games a week.  If you took their advice but only chose a couple of their wagers, the chances that you’d win big would be minimal, because they have to play double digit games a week to avoid risk and let the law of averages tilt to their side.

Since only about 1% of those that wager regularly are profitable, and since 99% of these winners wouldn’t think of giving you advice, realize that practically every service out there that is marketing their talents to you are profiting off your money and not their wagers.  If they were really successful players, they would never offer their advice to the public.  They’d keep it to themselves and selfishly continue to win.

Now that you know that we are giving you these picks, you should understand these two things.

1. We are not part of the 1% of Sharps that enjoy 6-figure and 7-figure annual careers, as we do not wager one cent.

2. Our selections provided to you for free are worth exactly what you paid for it.  If we really knew what we were doing, then we might be in Las Vegas with some of our friends placing wagers and never telling anybody else what we selected.

 

This week’s theme is trying to find incredible value betting a parlay of underdogs.  We looked at all the college games this week and isolated on five teams we believe stand decent chances to win outright as underdogs.  

We actually issued individual Money Line selections on each of these five teams in individual plays, because we feel like three of these teams should pull the actual upset.

The five games where we have studied the personnel groupings and looked for extras like teams playing a sandwich game between two more important games involve these games.

 

Marshall over Cincinnati

Duke over Virginia Tech

Kansas State over Oklahoma State

Baylor over Iowa State

North Carolina State over Florida State.

 

You can play each of these game as singular money line plays and get better than +120 odds on each team.

At the time of this writing, you can get Duke at +125 at a couple of the big books in Nevada.  You can get North Carolina State at +210.  Both Marshall and Kansas State can be found at +165.  Baylor can be wagered at +130.

What if you began combining these teams into 2 or 3 game parlays?  The potential odds are incredible.  Yes, the potential for winning is minimal, but for a little pretend money, you could make a pretend killing if you pick the right 2 or 3 teams.

There’s the rub.  If you play all five teams as single money line upset choices, you stand a decent chance of making a minor imaginary profit.  But, if just one of the potential big payout parlays pays off, you could make five times what you put in.

Let’s look at some examples.  We can’t list them all, as there are too many combinations.

 

 

2-Game Parlays

Marshall over Cincinnati and Duke over Virginia Tech: +485

Marshall over Cincinnati and Kansas St. over Oklahoma St.: +496

Kansas St. over Oklahoma St. & North Carolina St. over Florida St.: +722

 

 

3-Game Parlays

Kansas St. over Oklahoma St., Baylor over Iowa St., & NC ST. over Florida St.: +1790

Marshall, Kansas St., and North Carolina St. all in upset wins: +2036

Have fun making combinations of these games.  Here’s the complete crazy parlay where you combine all five of these teams.

If you bet Marshall, Kansas St., North Carolina St., Baylor, and Duke all to win in upsets, the money line parlay payout would be:

 

+10953

Yes, if you were crazy enough to put $100 in Nevada on these five teams to win in upset games, and all five pulled off their upsets, you would cash a winning ticket of $11,053!

If you only put $10 on this parlay, you could cash $1,105.

If you just put that same dollar you use playing Mega Millions, and it won, you’d pocket more than $110, and your chances to win on this parlay are multitudes better than winning the lottery.

—————————————————————————————————————————————-

Did you hear about the guy that bet 89 cents on a ton of games last week on a parlay, and won every game heading into Monday Night Football.  Had the Washington Redskins won that final bet for him, he would have taken that 89 cents and cashed in a half million dollars!

When the Bears won the game, the naive media announced that the poor sap lost.  Without knowing for sure, we bet that this guy won big, maybe even 6-figures.

The media is never the best place to receive information on anything.  In this case, we are confident that the bettor hedged his wager on Monday morning.  Obviously, he probably didn’t have $100,000 to invest on the MNF game, but he probably found a willing money lender to purchase that ticket for 100 grand.

If you had $100,000, and you bought that ticket, then the guy that spent 89 cents just won $99,999.19 on his wager, and he leaves quite happy as a big winner, at least until he realizes his tax bracket just went way up.

The person that bought that potential half-million dollar ticket then played as many different tickets he needed on Monday afternoon until he had $200,000 in wagers on the Bears.  It would have taken him going to multiple books, but it is easily done.

Let’s look at the money lender on Monday afternoon.

1. $100,000 spent buying the ticket

2. $200,000 spent buying tickets on the Bears.

If the Redskins had won the last game on that parlay, the lender collects the half million dollar payout and profits by $200,000 since he invested $300,000.

If the Bears had won (which they did), then the half-million dollar parlay is trashed, but the lender cashes in a winning ticket on his Bears bet and receives $400,000.  The profit is only $100,000 in this case.

Technically, the lender could have places additional bets on the Redskins, which would have brought his guaranteed payout to around $135,000 no matter what the outcome, but we just wanted to show you an example in hedging to get a guaranteed win.

If you had a 50% chance of realizing a 33% of 67% return on your investment in 24 hours, you are guaranteeing yourself an average ROI of 50% in one day!  Now, how many of you with some seed money are planning to relocate to Nevada and do some hedge playing?  Alas, we here are more like the 89 cent investor.

PiRate Ratings FINAL Bracketology For 2019

Sunday, March 17, 2019

Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Duke	Virginia	Gonzaga	North Carolina
2	Michigan St.	Tennessee	Michigan	Kentucky
3	Houston	Florida St.	Texas Tech	LSU
4	Purdue	Kansas St.	Wisconsin	Kansas
5	Auburn	Villanova	Virginia Tech	Iowa St.
6	Buffalo	Mississippi St.	Cincinnati	Marquette
7	Wofford	Maryland	Louisville	Nevada
8	Iowa	Seton Hall	Minnesota	Central Florida
9	Ole Miss	Syracuse	Baylor	Washington
10	Virginia Commonwealth	Utah St.	Florida	Oklahoma
11	Oregon	Ohio St.	Temple/Arizona St.	St. John’s/TCU
12	Saint Mary’s	Murray St.	New Mexico St.	Vermont
13	Liberty	UC-Irvine	Old Dominion	Montana
14	Saint Louis	Northeastern	Northern Kentucky	Georgia St.
15	Yale	Bradley	Colgate	Abilene Christian
16	Gardner-Webb	Prairie View A&M	Iona/Fairleigh-Dickinson	N. Dakota St./UNC Central

 

Last Four Byes

Virginia Commonwealth

Florida

Oklahoma

Ohio St.

 

Last Four In

Temple

St. John’s

TCU

Arizona St.

 

First Four Out

North Carolina St.

Belmont

UNC Greensboro

Furman

 

Next Four Out

Indiana

Alabama

Clemson

Texas

 

Bids By Conference

Conference	Bids
Big Ten	8
ACC	7
SEC	7
Big 12	7
Big East	4
AAC	4
Pac-12	3
MWC	2
West Coast	2
Atlantic 10	2
One-Bid Leagues	22

Bracket Gurus 68 Team Field

The Gurus Have Reached A Verdict

In New York, the NCAA Men’s Basketball Selection Committee by now has agreed on 68 teams and only a little moving in the seed lines is yet to come.  After last night’s games, especially after the Oregon win over Washington in the Pac-12 Championship Game, it basically came down to about 70 teams competing for 68 spots.

The Gurus met via conference this morning and quickly eliminated all but four of the teams on the Bubble for three spots in the field.  By the end of the coffee talk, we had agreed to eliminate one team, leaving three teams for the final two spots.  There’s the rub; at this point, we had a hung jury.

In the Committee room, they break for ice cream at this point.  The Bracket Gurus share something in common with each other but totally opposite of the Committee.  All 12 Gurus are into the Keto-Paleo-Bulletproof way of life.  We not only didn’t break for ice cream, none of us consumed more than our upgraded coffee.

Unfortunately, it was an early Sunday morning funeral that broke up the meeting and allowed the Gurus to step away from the numbers, which was ironic to the max.  The dearly departed friend of the Captain had been a certified public accountant as well as a sports fanatic.

The Gurus reconvened via cyberspace while consuming mass quantities of healthy fat and good quality animal protein (sorry Vegan friends).  Once satiated, the 12 Gurus realized that in all but one city where we reside, it is too beautiful to be indoors.  So, we quickly agreed on that 68th team as well as which team is sadly number 69.

To borrow from the great Jim Nantz, “Friends,” here are the 68 teams we have selected to represent the NCAA Tournament Field.  They are presented in alphabetical order.  The seeding will come in our final installment to be published as we have a Big Ten Tournament Champion.  If the game is a blowout, the seeding will appear before the conclusion of the game.  If the game is close, then expect the seeding to be on this site within 5 minutes of the conclusion of the game.  It will be marked as our “Final Selection.”

The following 68 teams as voted 12-0 by our gurus are:

(3 One-Bid Tournaments to be decided today)

Abilene Christian

Arizona St.

Atlantic 10:  Winner of St. Bonaventure vs. Saint Louis

Auburn

Baylor

Bradley

Buffalo

Cincinnati

Colgate

Duke

Fairleigh-Dickinson

Florida

Florida St.

Gardner-Webb

Gonzaga

Houston

Iona

Iowa

Iowa St.

Ivy: Winner of Harvard vs. Yale

Kansas

Kansas St.

Kentucky

Liberty

Louisville

LSU

Marquette

Maryland

Michigan

Michigan St.

Minnesota

Mississippi St.

Montana

Murray St.

North Carolina Central

Nevada

New Mexico St.

North Carolina

North Dakota St.

Northeastern

Northern Kentucky

Ohio St.

Oklahoma

Old Dominion

Ole Miss

Oregon

Prairie View A&M

Purdue

Saint Mary’s

Seton Hall

St. John’s

Sun Belt: Winner of Georgia State vs. Texas-Arlington

Syracuse

TCU

Temple

Tennessee

Texas Tech

UC-Irvine

UCF

Utah St.

VCU

Vermont

Villanova

Virginia

Virginia Tech

Washington

Wisconsin

Wofford

 

It came down to Arizona State versus North Carolina State.  The Sun Devils won out due to a better strength of schedule and better results in the 1st and 2nd Quadrant.