This will be the final year that the Big 12 will have 10 teams. Next year, Central Florida, Houston, Cincinnati, and BYU will join the league, and for one to two years, the league will have 14 teams. Texas and Oklahoma are committed for now to remain in the Big 12 through the 2024 season. Things could change, as new league Commissioner Brett Yormark has indicated that he would be fine finding a win-win situation that would allow the Sooners and Longhorns to leave for the SEC before their scheduled July 1, 2025 date.
2022 expects to be an interesting year in the Big 12. Oklahoma welcomes a new head coach in Brent Venables, the former defensive coordinator at Clemson. There was a lot of player movement in Norman when former coach Lincoln Riley bolted for USC, but Venables has a lot of depth and talent remaining. Oklahoma is still the team to beat.
Rival Oklahoma State should see marked improvement on the defensive side, and the Cowboys must be considered the leading contender to earn the second spot in the Big 12 Championship Game.
Baylor, Texas, Iowa State, and Kansas State figure to fight it out in the next tier with TCU just behind. These seven teams should all make bowl games. The bottom three could potentially tie for last at 1-8. Texas Tech has a lot of talent but a lot of holes. West Virginia is at a crossroads. Kansas is still the least talented team in the league, but second year coach Lance Leipold has the Jayhawks trending upward.
Preseason PiRate Ratings
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Oklahoma
119.3
118.1
119.7
119.0
Oklahoma St.
118.2
116.3
117.6
117.4
Baylor
114.1
112.8
113.3
113.4
Texas
111.7
110.5
110.0
110.7
Kansas St.
111.1
109.7
109.9
110.2
Iowa St.
108.6
108.5
108.8
108.6
T C U
108.8
107.2
107.2
107.7
Texas Tech
107.0
105.5
107.4
106.6
West Virginia
103.7
103.5
102.4
103.2
Kansas
99.1
96.8
95.7
97.2
Big 12
110.1
108.9
109.2
109.4
Preseason Big 12 Official Media Poll
Votes
#
Team
1st Place
Overall
1
Baylor
17
365
2
Oklahoma
12
354
3
Oklahoma St.
9
342
4
Texas
2
289
5
Kansas St.
0
261
6
Iowa St.
1
180
7
TCU
0
149
8
West Virginia
0
147
9
Texas Tech
0
119
10
Kansas
0
48
The PiRate Ratings are designed to look at just the next week’s schedule of games and not to use to look forward. Nevertheless, here are the predicted won-loss records for the league.
We apologize for having to totally re-work this section, but the crazy off-the-cuff scheduling and cancellations have done a number on all of the power ratings specialists throughout the land. We keep in touch with many of our brethren, and they too are having to deal with hourly changes to the sports schedules.
This schedule is up to date as of Monday afternoon, 12/14/2020 at 4:00 PM EST.
Monday night update: Vanderbilt & Georgia game cancelled. Georgia is attempting to find a replacement team from outside the SEC.
SMU has opted out of Saturday’s Frisco Bowl. A replacement will be attempted by the bowl.
Tuesday update–The Frisco Bowl has been cancelled. Troy and UL-Monroe have cancelled. And, the Old Oaken Bucket Game–Indiana and Purdue has been cancelled. Michigan’s game with Iowa has been cancelled. The Michigan State-Maryland game has been cancelled.
Thursday update– The Sun Belt Conference Championship Game between Coastal Carolina and Louisiana has been cancelled.
Friday update–Florida State and Wake Forest game has been cancelled.
Regular Season Games
Thursday, December 17
Home
Visitors
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Troy
UL-Monroe
25.3
26.5
27.3
Friday, December 18
Home
Visitors
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Indiana
Purdue
14.7
15.0
16.5
Rutgers
Nebraska
-2.9
-3.4
-4.8
Saturday, December 19
Home
Visitors
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Wake Forest
Florida St.
7.8
9.4
8.8
Wisconsin
Minnesota
14.0
11.8
13.5
Penn St.
Illinois
10.8
10.2
10.6
Iowa
Michigan
16.3
16.8
17.0
Maryland
Michigan St.
-2.4
-1.9
-3.2
Army
Air Force
-5.3
-4.6
-5.3
Utah
Washington St.
6.4
8.0
6.7
UCLA
Stanford
5.3
6.1
4.9
Oregon St.
Arizona St.
-3.2
-2.7
-3.6
Georgia
Vanderbilt
38.1
38.0
39.8
Tennessee
Texas A&M
-13.8
-14.4
-14.4
LSU
Ole Miss
6.8
7.2
7.9
Mississippi St.
Missouri
0.6
0.2
0.2
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES
Friday, December 18
Home
Visitors
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Buffalo (n)
Ball St.
11.3
12.5
11.9
Marshall
UAB
6.2
6.2
6.5
USC
Oregon
5.2
4.2
4.8
Saturday, December 19
Home
Visitors
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Cincinnati
Tulsa
17.2
18.1
18.8
Clemson (n)
Notre Dame
5.8
6.8
8.0
Iowa St. (n)
Oklahoma
-1.1
-1.3
-0.9
Ohio St. (n)
Northwestern
19.5
18.5
19.2
Alabama (n)
Florida
18.1
19.7
19.9
Coastal Carolina
Louisiana
3.3
4.3
4.5
San Jose St. (n)
Boise St.
-10.4
-8.5
-9.5
(n): Neutral Site
BOWL GAME
Frisco Bowl—Cancelled
Team
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
SMU
UTSA
15.9
15.0
14.8
This Week’s PiRate Ratings
#
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Avg.
Conference
1
Alabama
140.4
141.3
142.7
141.5
SEC-W
2
Ohio St.
131.4
130.5
133.7
131.9
BTen-E
3
Clemson
129.2
130.0
131.4
130.2
ACC
4
Georgia
124.4
123.6
125.2
124.4
SEC-E
5
Notre Dame
124.4
124.2
124.4
124.3
ACC
6
Florida
122.2
121.7
122.8
122.2
SEC-E
7
Texas A&M
121.6
121.6
122.3
121.8
SEC-W
8
Oklahoma
121.6
121.1
121.8
121.5
B12
9
Iowa St.
120.5
119.8
120.9
120.4
B12
10
Iowa
119.7
119.3
121.4
120.1
BTen-W
11
N. Carolina
119.8
119.9
120.3
120.0
ACC
12
Wisconsin
119.7
118.0
120.9
119.5
BTen-W
13
Cincinnati
119.2
118.7
119.4
119.1
AAC
14
Indiana
117.1
117.5
119.6
118.1
BTen-E
15
U S C
118.6
116.0
117.7
117.5
P12-S
16
Texas
117.0
115.8
116.9
116.6
B12
17
Auburn
115.6
114.7
115.7
115.3
SEC-W
18
Oregon
115.5
113.9
114.9
114.8
P12-N
19
BYU
114.7
114.5
114.9
114.7
Ind.
20
L S U
114.3
113.6
115.4
114.4
SEC-W
21
Oklahoma St.
114.5
113.2
113.6
113.8
B12
22
Northwestern
111.9
112.0
114.4
112.8
BTen-W
23
Miami (Fla.)
110.8
112.7
111.3
111.6
ACC
24
Penn St.
111.8
110.5
112.4
111.6
BTen-E
25
UCF
110.4
110.3
110.7
110.5
AAC
26
T C U
110.5
109.3
110.9
110.3
B12
27
Kentucky
109.1
109.0
110.1
109.4
SEC-E
28
Washington
109.4
108.0
109.8
109.1
P12-N
29
Arizona St.
109.2
108.5
108.8
108.8
P12-S
30
Ole Miss
109.0
107.9
109.0
108.6
SEC-W
31
Utah
108.2
108.3
108.9
108.5
P12-S
32
U C L A
108.2
107.3
107.4
107.6
P12-S
33
Buffalo
106.9
108.0
107.7
107.5
MAC-E
34
Coastal Car.
107.0
107.6
107.7
107.4
SUN-E
35
Minnesota
106.7
107.2
108.3
107.4
BTen-W
36
Boise St.
107.2
107.2
106.9
107.1
MWC-M
37
Louisville
107.1
107.0
106.5
106.8
ACC
38
Tennessee
106.3
105.7
106.4
106.1
SEC-E
39
Pittsburgh
105.5
106.4
105.8
105.9
ACC
40
Missouri
105.3
105.0
106.1
105.5
SEC-E
41
Michigan
105.4
104.5
106.3
105.4
BTen-E
42
Louisiana
105.7
105.3
105.3
105.4
SUN-W
43
Nebraska
105.0
104.5
106.3
105.3
BTen-W
44
Wake Forest
104.7
105.5
105.5
105.3
ACC
45
California
105.4
105.1
105.1
105.2
P12-N
46
Virginia
104.6
105.0
105.1
104.9
ACC
47
W. Virginia
104.7
104.4
104.9
104.7
B12
48
Virginia Tech
103.9
104.5
104.9
104.4
ACC
49
Miss. St.
104.4
103.7
104.8
104.3
SEC-W
50
Tulane
104.3
104.3
103.9
104.2
AAC
51
Boston Coll.
103.6
103.9
104.2
103.9
ACC
52
Stanford
104.4
102.7
104.0
103.7
P12-N
53
Oregon St.
104.0
103.8
103.2
103.7
P12-N
54
Purdue
103.4
103.5
104.1
103.7
BTen-W
55
Washington St.
103.7
102.3
104.2
103.4
P12-N
56
Memphis
104.4
103.1
102.6
103.4
AAC
57
Appal. St.
103.4
102.9
103.5
103.3
SUN-E
58
Illinois
102.9
102.3
103.8
103.0
BTen-W
59
Tulsa
103.5
102.1
102.1
102.5
AAC
60
Arkansas
102.2
102.8
102.4
102.5
SEC-W
61
Baylor
102.3
101.8
102.1
102.1
B12
62
Air Force
101.7
102.4
101.7
101.9
MWC-M
63
NC State
101.4
101.9
101.8
101.7
ACC
64
Houston
102.3
100.9
101.2
101.5
AAC
65
Liberty
100.0
102.9
100.8
101.2
Ind.
66
Colorado
101.0
101.8
99.8
100.9
P12-S
67
Kansas St.
100.4
99.6
100.7
100.2
B12
68
Rutgers
100.6
99.6
100.0
100.1
BTen-E
69
SMU
100.1
99.6
99.2
99.7
AAC
70
S. Carolina
100.5
98.8
99.7
99.7
SEC-E
71
Marshall
99.6
99.9
99.2
99.5
CUSA-E
72
Michigan St.
99.1
98.6
99.7
99.2
BTen-E
73
San Diego St.
98.5
99.5
98.8
98.9
MWC-W
74
Texas Tech
98.8
97.6
98.9
98.4
B12
75
San Jose St.
96.9
98.6
97.4
97.6
MWC-W
76
Florida St.
97.9
97.2
97.7
97.6
ACC
77
Wyoming
96.0
97.1
96.4
96.5
MWC-M
78
Nevada
95.2
96.1
95.6
95.7
MWC-W
79
Ball St.
95.6
95.5
95.8
95.7
MAC-W
80
U A B
95.3
95.7
94.7
95.2
CUSA-W
81
Georgia Tech
95.7
95.2
94.8
95.2
ACC
82
E. Carolina
95.6
95.4
94.5
95.2
AAC
83
Maryland
95.2
95.2
95.0
95.1
BTen-E
84
Ohio
94.4
95.1
95.3
94.9
MAC-E
85
Army
93.9
95.3
93.9
94.4
Ind.
86
Arizona
94.1
92.5
92.9
93.2
P12-S
87
Georgia Sou.
92.7
93.5
93.0
93.1
SUN-E
88
Fresno St.
92.7
93.2
92.2
92.7
MWC-W
89
Hawaii
92.7
93.0
92.0
92.5
MWC-W
90
Western Mich.
91.6
93.3
92.4
92.4
MAC-W
91
Toledo
92.1
93.2
91.9
92.4
MAC-W
92
Troy
91.8
92.9
92.2
92.3
SUN-E
93
Central Mich.
92.0
92.1
92.2
92.1
MAC-W
94
Georgia St.
91.8
92.1
92.3
92.1
SUN-E
95
Miami (O)
92.4
91.5
92.1
92.0
MAC-E
96
Navy
92.7
91.4
90.7
91.6
AAC
97
W. Kentucky
91.2
91.7
90.8
91.2
CUSA-E
98
Kent St.
91.2
90.7
90.7
90.9
MAC-E
99
Syracuse
90.1
91.3
90.8
90.8
ACC
100
Duke
90.5
90.3
89.3
90.0
ACC
101
Colorado St.
89.5
90.3
89.5
89.8
MWC-M
102
Vanderbilt
88.3
87.5
87.4
87.8
SEC-E
103
Arkansas St.
87.6
88.2
87.0
87.6
SUN-W
104
Temple
87.9
87.6
86.3
87.3
AAC
105
Rice
88.1
86.2
87.2
87.2
CUSA-W
106
USF
87.8
86.5
86.2
86.8
AAC
107
Fla. Atlantic
85.9
86.8
86.2
86.3
CUSA-E
108
New Mexico
86.0
86.8
85.4
86.1
MWC-M
109
Florida Int’l.
85.7
85.5
85.3
85.5
CUSA-E
110
U T S A
85.2
85.6
85.4
85.4
CUSA-W
111
Eastern Mich.
83.8
85.6
84.5
84.6
MAC-W
112
Utah St.
84.4
84.1
83.5
84.0
MWC-M
113
La. Tech
83.6
84.2
83.6
83.8
CUSA-W
114
Charlotte
83.5
83.6
83.2
83.4
CUSA-E
115
Middle Tenn.
82.2
82.5
82.3
82.3
CUSA-E
116
Southern Miss.
82.3
82.8
81.8
82.3
CUSA-W
117
S. Alabama
81.8
82.7
81.7
82.1
SUN-W
118
N. Illinois
80.7
82.0
80.8
81.2
MAC-W
119
Texas St.
81.0
81.5
80.2
80.9
SUN-W
120
U N L V
79.5
80.6
78.7
79.6
MWC-W
121
Kansas
78.7
78.0
77.4
78.1
B12
122
North Texas
75.4
75.6
74.8
75.3
CUSA-W
123
U T E P
67.9
70.3
68.0
68.7
CUSA-W
124
Akron
67.5
69.2
66.1
67.6
MAC-E
125
UL-Monroe
68.0
67.9
66.5
67.5
SUN-W
126
Bowling Green
65.1
66.4
61.8
64.4
MAC-E
127
Mass.
61.7
67.5
59.9
63.0
Ind.
PiRate Rating By Conference
American Athletic Conference
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Avg
AAC
Overall
Cincinnati
119.2
118.7
119.4
119.1
6-0
8-0
UCF
110.4
110.3
110.7
110.5
5-3
6-3
Tulane
104.3
104.3
103.9
104.2
3-5
6-5
Memphis
104.4
103.1
102.6
103.4
5-3
7-3
Tulsa
103.5
102.1
102.1
102.5
6-0
6-1
Houston
102.3
100.9
101.2
101.5
3-3
3-4
SMU
100.1
99.6
99.2
99.7
4-3
7-3
E. Carolina
95.6
95.4
94.5
95.2
3-4
3-6
Navy
92.7
91.4
90.7
91.6
3-4
3-7
Temple
87.9
87.6
86.3
87.3
1-6
1-6
USF
87.8
86.5
86.2
86.8
0-7
1-8
AAC Avg.
100.7
100.0
99.7
100.1
Atlantic Coast Conference
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Avg
ACC
Overall
Clemson
129.2
130.0
131.4
130.2
8-1
9-1
Notre Dame
124.4
124.2
124.4
124.3
9-0
10-0
N. Carolina
119.8
119.9
120.3
120.0
7-3
8-3
Miami (Fla.)
110.8
112.7
111.3
111.6
7-2
8-2
Louisville
107.1
107.0
106.5
106.8
3-7
4-7
Pittsburgh
105.5
106.4
105.8
105.9
5-5
6-5
Wake Forest
104.7
105.5
105.5
105.3
3-4
4-4
Virginia
104.6
105.0
105.1
104.9
4-5
5-5
Virginia Tech
103.9
104.5
104.9
104.4
5-5
5-6
Boston Coll.
103.6
103.9
104.2
103.9
5-5
6-5
NC State
101.4
101.9
101.8
101.7
7-3
8-3
Florida St.
97.9
97.2
97.7
97.6
2-6
3-6
Georgia Tech
95.7
95.2
94.8
95.2
3-6
3-7
Syracuse
90.1
91.3
90.8
90.8
1-9
1-10
Duke
90.5
90.3
89.3
90.0
1-9
2-9
ACC Avg.
106.0
106.3
106.2
106.2
Big 12 Conference
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Avg
B12
Overall
Oklahoma
121.6
121.1
121.8
121.5
6-2
7-2
Iowa St.
120.5
119.8
120.9
120.4
8-1
8-2
Texas
117.0
115.8
116.9
116.6
5-3
6-3
Oklahoma St.
114.5
113.2
113.6
113.8
6-3
7-3
T C U
110.5
109.3
110.9
110.3
5-4
6-4
W. Virginia
104.7
104.4
104.9
104.7
4-4
5-4
Baylor
102.3
101.8
102.1
102.1
2-7
2-7
Kansas St.
100.4
99.6
100.7
100.2
4-5
4-6
Texas Tech
98.8
97.6
98.9
98.4
3-6
4-6
Kansas
78.7
78.0
77.4
78.1
0-8
0-9
Big 12 Avg.
106.9
106.1
106.8
106.6
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
BTen
Overall
Ohio St.
131.4
130.5
133.7
131.9
5-0
5-0
Indiana
117.1
117.5
119.6
118.1
6-1
6-1
Penn St.
111.8
110.5
112.4
111.6
3-5
3-5
Michigan
105.4
104.5
106.3
105.4
2-4
2-4
Rutgers
100.6
99.6
100.0
100.1
3-5
3-5
Michigan St.
99.1
98.6
99.7
99.2
2-5
2-5
Maryland
95.2
95.2
95.0
95.1
2-3
2-3
West Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
BTen
Overall
Iowa
119.7
119.3
121.4
120.1
6-2
6-2
Wisconsin
119.7
118.0
120.9
119.5
2-3
2-3
Northwestern
111.9
112.0
114.4
112.8
6-1
6-1
Minnesota
106.7
107.2
108.3
107.4
3-3
3-3
Nebraska
105.0
104.5
106.3
105.3
2-5
2-5
Purdue
103.4
103.5
104.1
103.7
2-4
2-4
Illinois
102.9
102.3
103.8
103.0
2-5
2-5
Big Ten Avg.
109.3
108.8
110.4
109.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Avg
CUSA
Overall
Marshall
99.6
99.9
99.2
99.5
4-1
7-1
W. Kentucky
91.2
91.7
90.8
91.2
4-3
5-6
Fla. Atlantic
85.9
86.8
86.2
86.3
4-2
5-3
Florida Int’l.
85.7
85.5
85.3
85.5
0-3
0-5
Charlotte
83.5
83.6
83.2
83.4
2-2
2-4
Middle Tenn.
82.2
82.5
82.3
82.3
2-4
3-6
West Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Avg
CUSA
Overall
U A B
95.3
95.7
94.7
95.2
3-1
5-3
Rice
88.1
86.2
87.2
87.2
2-3
2-3
U T S A
85.2
85.6
85.4
85.4
5-2
7-4
La. Tech
83.6
84.2
83.6
83.8
4-2
5-4
Southern Miss.
82.3
82.8
81.8
82.3
2-4
3-7
North Texas
75.4
75.6
74.8
75.3
3-4
4-5
U T E P
67.9
70.3
68.0
68.7
0-4
3-5
CUSA Avg.
85.1
85.4
84.8
85.1
FBS Independents
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Avg
Conf.
Overall
BYU
114.7
114.5
114.9
114.7
x
10-1
Liberty
100.0
102.9
100.8
101.2
x
9-1
Army
93.9
95.3
93.9
94.4
x
8-2
Mass.
61.7
67.5
59.9
63.0
x
0-4
Ind. Avg.
92.6
95.1
92.4
93.3
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Avg
Conf.
Overall
Buffalo
106.9
108.0
107.7
107.5
5-0
5-0
Ohio
94.4
95.1
95.3
94.9
2-1
2-1
Miami (O)
92.4
91.5
92.1
92.0
2-1
2-1
Kent St.
91.2
90.7
90.7
90.9
3-1
3-1
Akron
67.5
69.2
66.1
67.6
1-5
1-5
Bowling Green
65.1
66.4
61.8
64.4
0-5
0-5
West Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Avg
Conf.
Overall
Ball St.
95.6
95.5
95.8
95.7
5-1
5-1
Western Mich.
91.6
93.3
92.4
92.4
4-2
4-2
Toledo
92.1
93.2
91.9
92.4
4-2
4-2
Central Mich.
92.0
92.1
92.2
92.1
3-3
3-3
Eastern Mich.
83.8
85.6
84.5
84.6
2-4
2-4
N. Illinois
80.7
82.0
80.8
81.2
0-6
0-6
MAC Avg.
87.8
88.5
87.6
88.0
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Avg
Conf.
Overall
Boise St.
107.2
107.2
106.9
107.1
5-0
5-1
Air Force
101.7
102.4
101.7
101.9
2-2
3-2
Wyoming
96.0
97.1
96.4
96.5
2-4
2-4
Colorado St.
89.5
90.3
89.5
89.8
1-3
1-3
New Mexico
86.0
86.8
85.4
86.1
2-5
2-5
Utah St.
84.4
84.1
83.5
84.0
1-5
1-5
West Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Avg
Conf.
Overall
San Diego St.
98.5
99.5
98.8
98.9
4-2
4-4
San Jose St.
96.9
98.6
97.4
97.6
6-0
6-0
Nevada
95.2
96.1
95.6
95.7
6-2
6-2
Fresno St.
92.7
93.2
92.2
92.7
3-3
3-3
Hawaii
92.7
93.0
92.0
92.5
4-4
4-4
U N L V
79.5
80.6
78.7
79.6
0-6
0-6
MWC Avg.
93.3
94.1
93.2
93.5
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Avg
Conf.
Overall
Oregon
115.5
113.9
114.9
114.8
3-2
3-2
Washington
109.4
108.0
109.8
109.1
3-1
3-1
California
105.4
105.1
105.1
105.2
1-3
1-3
Stanford
104.4
102.7
104.0
103.7
3-2
3-2
Oregon St.
104.0
103.8
103.2
103.7
2-4
2-4
Washington St.
103.7
102.3
104.2
103.4
1-2
1-2
South Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Avg
Conf.
Overall
U S C
118.6
116.0
117.7
117.5
5-0
5-0
Arizona St.
109.2
108.5
108.8
108.8
1-2
1-2
Utah
108.2
108.3
108.9
108.5
2-2
2-2
U C L A
108.2
107.3
107.4
107.6
3-3
3-3
Colorado
101.0
101.8
99.8
100.9
3-1
4-1
Arizona
94.1
92.5
92.9
93.2
0-5
0-5
P12 Avg.
106.8
105.8
106.4
106.4
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Avg
SEC
Overall
Georgia
124.4
123.6
125.2
124.4
7-2
7-2
Florida
122.2
121.7
122.8
122.2
8-2
8-2
Kentucky
109.1
109.0
110.1
109.4
4-6
4-6
Tennessee
106.3
105.7
106.4
106.1
3-6
3-6
Missouri
105.3
105.0
106.1
105.5
5-4
5-4
S. Carolina
100.5
98.8
99.7
99.7
2-8
2-8
Vanderbilt
88.3
87.5
87.4
87.8
0-9
0-9
West Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Avg
SEC
Overall
Alabama
140.4
141.3
142.7
141.5
10-0
10-0
Texas A&M
121.6
121.6
122.3
121.8
7-1
7-1
Auburn
115.6
114.7
115.7
115.3
6-4
6-4
L S U
114.3
113.6
115.4
114.4
4-5
4-5
Ole Miss
109.0
107.9
109.0
108.6
4-4
4-4
Miss. St.
104.4
103.7
104.8
104.3
2-7
2-7
Arkansas
102.2
102.8
102.4
102.5
3-7
3-7
SEC Avg.
111.7
111.2
112.1
111.7
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Avg
SBC
Overall
Coastal Car.
107.0
107.6
107.7
107.4
8-0
11-0
Appal. St.
103.4
102.9
103.5
103.3
6-2
8-3
Georgia Sou.
92.7
93.5
93.0
93.1
4-4
7-5
Georgia St.
91.8
92.1
92.3
92.1
4-4
5-4
Troy
91.8
92.9
92.2
92.3
3-6
5-6
West Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Avg
SBC
Overall
Louisiana
105.7
105.3
105.3
105.4
7-1
9-1
Arkansas St.
87.6
88.2
87.0
87.6
2-6
4-7
S. Alabama
81.8
82.7
81.7
82.1
3-5
4-7
Texas St.
81.0
81.5
80.2
80.9
2-6
2-10
UL-Monroe
68.0
67.9
66.5
67.5
0-7
0-10
Sun Avg.
91.1
91.4
90.9
91.2
Conference Ratings
#
League
Avg
1
SEC
111.7
2
BTen
109.5
3
B12
106.6
4
P12
106.4
5
ACC
106.2
6
AAC
100.1
7
MWC
93.5
8
Ind.
93.3
9
Sun
91.2
10
MAC
88.0
11
CUSA
85.1
The Playoffs–What Will Be This Week & What Should Be
The Playoff Committee won’t adjust this week’s top four teams. Only one of the four from last week played a game this past weekend, and Alabama basically showed the nation that they look like the best team in college football since the 2001 Miami of Florida Hurricanes. If somebody tells you that the playoffs need to be expanded from 4 to either 6, 8, or 12 teams, because Cincinnati, Coastal Carolina, Buffalo, and San Jose St. deserve a chance this year, you should reply that they are incorrect when talking about this year only. If the NCAA Playoff Committee wanted to make any changes to make the 2020-2021 college season end the right way, they should change the number of teams in the playoffs–from four to zero!
Alabama is clearly the best team in the nation. If they played Notre Dame, Ohio State, or Clemson next week, the Tide would be favored by two touchdowns minimum over any of the three contenders. If you are old enough to remember UCLA basketball during the three seasons that Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and his additional all-American teammates suited up for the Bruins, the NCAA Tournaments were less eventful than the middle of the season Christmas and New Year’s tournaments. For three years, UCLA was the basketball equivalent of the 1927 New York Yankees. The NCAA Tournament was no different than the Bruin Invitational, as UCLA beat Dayton, North Carolina, and Purdue so handily that the games were not meaningful. Alabama is going to do the same thing this year.
We believe that Clemson will edge Notre Dame in the ACC Championship, as the Tigers almost beat the Irish in South Bend without having Trevor Lawrence available. Notre Dame will assuredly drop to #4 in the playoff rankings, but they will stay in the top 4 to be Sugar Bowl fodder for Alabama. Ohio State and Clemson would then face off in the Rose Bowl. Ten days later, Alabama will run roughshod over the Ohio State-Clemson winner, most likely Clemson, and it will be like the Yankees-Dodgers in the World Series during the 1950’s, with Alabama being the Yankees.
If you ask us whether Ohio State deserves to be in the Playoffs, as they have only played five games, when the Big Ten had previously stated that a team had to play at least six games to be eligible for the Big Ten Championship, we have a somewhat divided opinion. First, we 100% agree that Ohio State should be in the Big Ten Championship Game.
Let’s say that rather than declare the Michigan game postponed, that Ohio State forfeited the game to show a six-game slate. Even with the one loss, Ohio State beats out Indiana on the tiebreaker, and it doesn’t affect their eye test rating. So, the Buckeyes deserve the East Division championship. We kind of compare this to the rule where a Major League batter can be the batting champion even if he fails to get the required 502 plate appearances in a 162-game schedule, if you take his at-bats and include additional outs until you reach the 502 required PA’s. If the batter still has the highest batting average with those outs added, he is the batting champion.
For example, in 1996, legendary hitter Tony Gwynn batted .353, but he only made 498 plate appearances, which did not qualify for the batting crown. He needed four additional plate appearances. With four outs added to Gwynn’s actual record, his batting average dropped to .349, which was still better than the next highest average, Rockies’ star Ellis Burks at .344. So, Gwynn won the batting title at .353.
Likewise, adding one loss to Ohio State’s record still allows the Buckeyes to win the Big Ten East in a tiebreaker with Indiana.
That being said, do we believe that Ohio State is one of the four best teams in the nation this year? The short answer is that our own ratings show the Buckeyes to be the second best team. However, if we were on the Playoff Committee, we would be totally at a loss to separate Ohio State and USC. As for any of the G5 teams, we hate to say it, but none of them can play either Ohio State or USC to within 10 points. A G5 Playoff with Cincinnati, Coastal Carolina, Buffalo, and San Jose State would be quite entertaining and much better TV choices than the bowl games, even the New Year’s Six games. But, the only teams outside the current top four that should be in consideration for the Playoffs are USC and Texas A&M. Additionally, it is more accurate to state that the loser of the ACC Championship Game should be removed in favor of an undefeated USC team this year. A one-loss Texas A&M team that beat Florida and played Alabama better than any other opponent might be the second best team in the nation, and it would be hard to convince us that they don’t belong in the Big Four if the ACC loser loses by a substantial margin.
Here is our belief as to what will happen depending on whether each of the contenders win or lose this week.
Alabama–If the Crimson Tide wins, they are in the Sugar Bowl as the #1 seed. If the Crimson Tide loses, they are in the Rose Bowl as the #3 seed.
Ohio State–If the Buckeyes win, they are in the Rose Bowl as the #2 or #3 seed. If the Buckeyes lose, they are in a NY6 bowl and not in the playoffs.
Notre Dame–If the Irish win, they are in the Rose Bowl as the #2 seed or Sugar Bowl as the #1 seed if Bama were to lose. If the Irish lose, they are in the Sugar Bowl as the #4 seed.
Clemson–If the Tigers win, they are in the Rose Bowl as the #2 or #3 seed based on what Ohio State does. If the Tigers lose, they are in the Orange Bowl and not in the playoffs.
Texas A&M–The Aggies must win and then hope for Clemson or Ohio State to lose, possibly Notre Dame to lose by 20 or more points. If the Aggies back into the Playoffs, they will be headed to the Sugar Bowl as the #4 seed if Alabama is #1, or to the Rose Bowl if Ohio State or Notre Dame is #1
USC–Notre Dame must beat Clemson, and Northwestern must upset Ohio State, while USC beats Washington by 28 or more points, and Texas A&M doesn’t slaughter Tennessee.
Cincinnati–Clemson, Ohio State, and USC must lose, and maybe even Texas A&M.
Any 2-loss team–We don’t see any scenario where Oklahoma, Iowa State, Florida, or Clemson could make the playoffs with two losses.
Comments Off on PiRate Ratings College Football For December 17-19, 2020
Coming Tuesday Afternoon–Our third and final Fun Stuff For Stats Buffs will attempt to explain the offensive and defensive efficiency ratings that the NCAA Selection Committee will use as research criteria for Selection Sunday.
Comments Off on PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Monday, January 21, 2019
For some leagues, the regular season race is now over, and the important next step begins as 13 conference tournaments begin between Tuesday and Saturday. We have listed the pairings for these baker’s dozen following the regular Bracketology report.
We have adjusted our format beginning this week to better show you the seedings from 1 to 16 of our two dozen plus Bracketology experts. The Bubble has greatly contracted, and it is close to impossible to even select a top 10 teams out of the tournament as of today. It is our belief that at most one or two of these last 10 out have any realistic chance of gaining admission to the Dance; in essence, these are mostly top seeds for the NIT.
Actually, the last 5-10 teams in the tournament as of today are the schools that need close watch. Some will secure a bid by continuing a late-season momentum swing to the positive. Some will misfire at the most inappropriate time and seal their fate to the NIT. And, some will become a victim of upsets in conference tournaments that will need to add one to their pot of dance partners. It could happen this week, as both the Missouri Valley and West Coast Conferences would add a dancer should a 3 seed or higher win these tournaments.
Let’s take a look at how our experts seed the 68 teams as of today. Remember, there are 20 or 21 leagues as of today that will definitely send just one team, so we went with the highest rated team in these leagues, highest rating being their NCAA Tournament criteria and not necessarily their conference record. The higher up each team is within each seed, the higher the team ranked.
The 1-Seeds
Kentucky
Virginia
Duke
Villanova
The 2-Seeds
Arizona
Wisconsin
Kansas
Gonzaga
The 3-Seeds
Oklahoma
Maryland
Baylor
Iowa St.
The 4-Seeds
Wichita St.
Utah
Louisville
Notre Dame
The 5-Seeds
Northern Iowa
Arkansas
North Carolina
West Virginia
The 6-Seeds
Butler
SMU
Providence
Georgetown
The 7-Seeds
VCU
San Diego St.
St. John’s
Ohio St.
The 8-seeds
Michigan St.
Indiana
Oklahoma St.
Dayton
The 9-Seeds
Georgia
Xavier
Iowa
LSU
The 10-Seeds
Colorado St.
Oregon
Ole Miss
Cincinnati
The 11-Seeds
Texas A&M
N. C. St.
Boise St.
Tulsa
Purdue
The 12-Seeds
Temple
Davidson
Wofford
Murray St.
Stephen F. Austin
The 13-Seeds
Louisiana Tech
Harvard or Yale
Valparaiso
Iona
The 14-Seeds
UC Davis
Central Michigan
Georgia Southern
Eastern Washington
The 15-Seeds
South Dakota St.
William & Mary
High Point
UNC-Central
The 16-Seeds
Albany
New Mexico St.
Texas Southern
Florida Gulf Coast
Bucknell
St. Francis (NY)
Last 10 IN
59 Oregon
60 Ole Miss
61 Cincinnati
62 Texas A&M
63 N. C. St.
64 Boise St.
65 Tulsa
66 Purdue
67 Temple
68 Davidson
First 10 OUT
69 BYU
70 Texas
71 Illinois
72 UCLA
73 Stanford
74 Miami (FLA.)
75 Pittsburgh
76 Old Dominion
77 TCU
78 Vanderbilt
Opening Round at Dayton
Tulsa vs. Davidson
Temple vs. Purdue
Texas Southern vs. St. Francis (NY)
Florida Gulf Coast vs. Bucknell
Sweet 16 if Seeds Held
East Regional
1 Virginia vs. 4 Notre Dame
2 Gonzaga vs. 3 Oklahoma
South Regional
1 Kentucky vs. 4 Louisville
2 Kansas vs. 3 Maryland
Midwest Regional
1 Duke vs. 4 Utah
2 Wisconsin vs. 3 Baylor
West Regional
1 Villanova vs. 4 Wichita St.
2 Arizona vs. 3 Iowa St.
Conference Tournament Pairings for Tournaments Commencing This Week
America East Conference Tournament
All Games Played at Lower Seed
Wednesday, March 4
8 Maine 2-14/3-26 @
1 Albany 15-1/21-8
5 Hartford 7-9/14-15 @
4 New Hampshire 11-5/18-11
6 Binghamton 5-11/6-25 @
3 Stony Brook 12-4/21-10
7 UMBC 2-14/6-25 @
2 Vermont 12-4/17-12
Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament
All Games Played at Lower Seed
Tuesday, March 3
8 Stetson 3-11/9-21 @
1 North florida 12-2/20-11
5 Lipscomb 7-7/13-16 @
4 Northern Kentucky 7-7/13-16
6 Kennesaw St. 4-10/10-21 @
3 USC Upstate 8-6/21-10
7 Jacksonville 4-10/10-21 @
2 Florida Gulf Coast 11-3/21-9
Big South Conference Tournament
Conway, SC
Wednesday, March 4
8 Presbyterian 6-12/10-21
9 Longwood 5-13/9-22
Winner vs. 1 Charleston Southern 13-5/19-10
4 Winthrop 12-6/17-12
5 Radford 12-6/21-10
6 UNC-Asheville 10-8/14-15
11 Liberty 2-16/8-23
Winner vs. 3 Coastal Carolina 12-6/21-9
7 Gardner-Webb 10-8/18-13
10 Campbell 4-14/10-21
Winner vs. 2 High Point 13-5/22-8
Colonial Conference Tournament
Baltimore
Friday, March 6
8 Elon 6-12/14-17
9 Towson 5-13/12-19
Winner vs. 1 William & Mary 12-6/18-11
4 James Madison 12-6/19-12
5 Hofstra 10-8/19-12
3 Northeastern 12-6/20-11
6 Delaware 9-9/10-19
7 Drexel 9-9/11-18
10 Charleston 3-15/8-23
Winner vs. 2 UNCW 12-6/17-12
Horizon League Conference Tournament
All Games Played at Lower Seed
Tuesday, March 3
8 Youngstown St. 2-14/11-20 @
5 Detroit 7-9/14-17
Winner at 4 Cleveland St. 11-5/17-13
Subsequent winner at 1 Valparaiso 13-3/26-5
7 Wright St. 3-13/11-19 @
6 UIC 4-12/8-23
Winner at Oakland 11-5/16-15
Subsequent winner at 2 Green Bay 12-4/23-7
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament
Albany, NY
Thursday, March 5
8 Siena 7-13/10-19
9 Niagara 7-13/8-21
Winner vs. 1 Iona 17-3/24-7
4 Monmouth 13-7/17-14
5 Canisius 11-9/16-13
6 Quinnipiac 9-11/15-14
11 Marist 5-15/6-24
Winner vs. 3 Manhattan 13-7/17-14
7 St. Peter’s 8-12/14-17
10 Fairfield 5-15/7-23
Winner vs. 2 Rider 15-5/21-10
Missouri Valley Conference Tournament
St. Louis (Arch Madness)
Thursday, March 5
8 Missouri St. 5-13/11-19
9 Southern Illinois 4-14/11-20
Winner vs. 1 Wichita St. 17-1/27-3
4 Illinois St. 11-7/19-11
5 Evansville 9-9/19-11
3 Indiana St. 11-7/15-15
6 Loyola (Chi.) 8-10/18-12
7 Drake 6-12/9-21
10 Bradley 3-15/8-23
Winner vs. 2 Northern Iowa 16-2/27-3
Northeast Conference Tournament
All Games Played at Lower Seed
Wednesday, March 4
8 LIU 8-10/12-17
1 St. Francis (NY) 15-3/21-10
5 St. Francis (PA) 9-9/15-14 @
4 Mt. St. Mary’s 11-7/15-14
6 Sacred Heart 9-9/15-16 @
3 Bryant 12-6/15-14
7 Wagner 8-10/10-19 @
2 Robert Morris 12-6/16-14
Ohio Valley Conference Tournament
Nashville
Wednesday, March 4
5 Morehead St. 10-6/15-16
8 SEMO 7-9/13-16
Winner vs. 4 UT-Martin 10-6/18-11
Subsequent winner vs. 1 Murray St. 16-0/26-4
6 E. Illinois 9-7/16-13
7 SIU-Edwardsville 8-8/12-15
Winner vs. 3 Belmont 11-5/19-10
Subsequent winner vs. 2 Eastern Kentucky 11-5/19-10
Patriot League Tournament
All Games Played at Lower Seed
Tuesday, March 3
9 Loyola (MD) 7-11/11-18 @
8 Holy Cross 8-10/13-15
Winner at 1 Bucknell 13-5/18-13
5 Boston U 9-9/13-16 @
4 Lafayette 9-9/17-12
6 American 8-10/15-15 @
3 Lehigh 10-8/15-13
10 Army 6-12/15-14 @
7 Navy 8-10/12-18
Winner at 2 Colgate 12-6/15-16
Southern Conference Tournament
Asheville, NC
Friday, March 6
8 UNCG 6-12/10-21
9 Samford 6-12/13-18
Winner vs. 1 Wofford 16-2/25-6
4 Western Carolina 9-9/14-16
5 East Tennessee 8-10/16-13
3 Mercer 12-6/17-14
6 VMI 7-11/11-18
7 Citadel 6-12/11-18
10 Furman 5-13/8-21
Winner vs. 2 Chattanooga 15-3/22-9
Summit League Tournament
Sioux Falls, SD
Saturday, March 7
1 South Dakota St. 12-4/21-9
8 Western Illinois 3-13/8-19
4 IPFW 9-7/16-13
5 South Dakota 9-7/16-15
3 Oral Roberts 10-6/17-13
6 IUPUI 6-10/10-20
2 North Dakota St. 12-4/20-9
7 Denver 6-10/12-17
West Coast Conference Tournament
Las Vegas
Friday, March 6
8 San Francisco 7-11/13-17
9 Pacific 4-14/12-18
Winner vs. 1 Gonzaga 17-1/29-2
4 Pepperdine 10-8/17-12
5 San Diego 8-10 15-15
3 St. Mary’s 13-5/21-8
6 Portland 7-11/16-14
7 Santa Clara 7-11/13-17
10 Loyola Marymount 4-14/8-22
Winner vs. 2 BYU 13-5/23-8
Comments Off on America’s Most Accurate Bracketology Composite—March 2, 2015
Marjorie Miller Designs
Our favorite handmade jewelry artisan (art critics call her designs “Wearable Masterpieces”)
The Bracket Matrix
The PiRate Ratings (Pi) are included in the best college basketball bracketology site on the Internet. Check out the Bracket Project Blog at: https://bracketproject.blogspot.com/
The PiRate Ratings
See the most current PiRate Ratings and Spreads for college and NFL football
The Pi-Rate Ratings 