The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 6, 2019

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Wednesday, March 6, 2019

Wednesday’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home

Rating

HCA

Visitor

Rating

Spread

Baylor

110.8

3.0

Oklahoma St.

104.2

9.6

Charlotte

92.6

2.5

Rice

95.5

-0.4

Creighton

109.3

3.0

Providence

105.5

6.8

Davidson

105.7

3.0

St. Bonaventure

102.7

6.0

Dayton

107.0

3.0

La Salle

97.0

13.0

DePaul

103.7

3.0

Georgetown

106.4

0.3

Detroit

95.5

1.0

Northern Kentucky

104.3

-7.8

Eastern Illinois

91.8

0.0

UT Martin

92.1

-0.3

Fairleigh Dickinson

96.2

2.5

Wagner

92.4

6.3

Florida

111.1

3.0

LSU

114.3

-0.2

Florida Atlantic

100.8

2.5

Louisiana Tech

101.7

1.6

Fordham

95.0

2.5

George Washington

93.1

4.4

Georgia

104.6

3.0

Missouri

105.1

2.5

Houston Baptist

93.3

2.5

Incarnate Word

85.4

10.4

Long Beach St.

96.0

2.5

UC Riverside

90.4

8.1

Marshall

98.9

3.0

Florida Int’l.

97.8

4.1

Massachusetts

96.2

2.5

Richmond

98.0

0.7

McNeese St.

89.8

2.5

Texas A&M CC

93.9

-1.6

Morehead St.

95.0

0.0

SIU Edwardsville

88.3

6.7

New Mexico

99.0

3.0

Boise St.

101.2

0.8

Nicholls St.

90.4

2.5

Northwestern St.

87.3

5.6

North Carolina St.

111.8

3.0

Georgia Tech

103.6

11.2

Northwestern

106.0

2.5

Ohio St.

110.5

-2.0

Notre Dame

105.2

3.0

Clemson

111.6

-3.4

Oakland

98.6

2.5

Youngstown St.

94.3

6.8

Old Dominion

104.3

3.0

Southern Miss.

103.0

4.3

Robert Morris

94.3

2.5

St. Francis (Bklyn)

93.7

3.1

Rutgers

106.6

2.5

Penn St.

110.3

-1.2

Sacred Heart

95.9

2.5

Long Island

94.1

4.3

Saint Louis

102.6

3.0

Duquesne

99.9

5.7

Sam Houston St.

100.1

3.0

Central Arkansas

90.5

12.6

San Diego St.

102.7

3.0

Fresno St.

106.5

-0.8

San Jose St.

86.3

3.0

Wyoming

90.0

-0.7

Seton Hall

107.5

3.0

Marquette

112.8

-2.3

Southeastern Louisiana

95.5

2.5

New Orleans

94.9

3.1

St. Francis (PA)

95.1

3.0

Bryant

89.4

8.7

Tulane

91.9

2.5

South Florida

104.2

-9.8

UTEP

93.0

3.0

Middle Tennessee

94.8

1.2

Vanderbilt

102.5

2.5

Arkansas

107.8

-2.8

Washington

110.1

3.0

Oregon St.

105.4

7.7

Washington St.

97.6

3.0

Oregon

107.8

-7.2

West Virginia

103.4

3.0

Iowa St.

114.7

-8.3

Western Kentucky

103.1

3.0

UTSA

102.0

4.1

 

Conference Tournaments Update

Big South Conference

First Round–Tuesday, March 5 (at Higher Seeded Teams)

Presbyterian

106

UNC-Asheville

59

Charleston Sou.

71

USC Upstate

52

Hampton

77

Longwood

71

 

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 7 (at Campbell)

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

2

Radford (20-10)

7

Presbyterian (18-14)

3

Winthrop (18-11)

6

Charleston Southern (16-14)

1

Campbell (19-11)

8

Hampton (15-15)

4

Gardner-Webb (20-11)

5

High Point (16-14)

 

Horizon League (Motor City Madness)

Quarterfinals–Tuesday, March 5 (at Higher Seed)

Wright St.

71

IUPUI

56

Green Bay

82

Illinois-Chicago

77

 

Quarterfinals–Wednesday, March 6 (at Higher Seed)

Seed

Home Team

Seed

Visitors

3

Oakland (15-16)

6

Youngstown St. (12-19)

2

Northern Kentucky (23-8)

7

Detroit (11-19)

 

Northeast Conference

All games at home floor of higher seeds

Quarterfinals–Wednesday, March 6

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

1

St. Francis (PA) (16-13)

8

Bryant (10-19)

2

Fairleigh-Dickinson (17-13)

7

Wagner (13-16)

3

Sacred Heart (15-16)

6

Long Island (15-15)

4

Robert Morris (16-15)

5

St. Francis (Bklyn) (17-14)

 

Ohio Valley Conference

Site: Ford Center, Evansville, IN

First Round–Wednesday, March 6

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

5

Morehead St. (12-19)

8

SIU Edwardsville (10-20)

6

Eastern Illinois (14-17)

7

UT-Martin (11-18)

 

Patriot League

All games at home floor of higher seeds

Boston U

71

Loyola (MD)

63

Holy Cross

79

Lafayette

74

 

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 7

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

1

Colgate (21-10)

8

Boston U (15-17)

2

Bucknell (19-10)

10

Holy Cross (16-16)

3

Lehigh (19-10)

6

Army (13-18)

4

American (15-14)

5

Navy (11-18)

 

Updated Bracketology Later Today

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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January 21, 2019

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Monday, January 21, 2019

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:35 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings (1-353)

Rk Team PiRate
1 Duke 126.2
2 Virginia 124.8
3 Michigan St. 124.3
4 Gonzaga 122.6
5 Tennessee 122.5
6 Michigan 119.6
7 North Carolina 119.3
8 Kansas 118.7
9 Virginia Tech 117.9
10 Purdue 117.1
11 Texas Tech 117.1
12 Nebraska 117.0
13 Maryland 117.0
14 Buffalo 117.0
15 Kentucky 116.9
16 Iowa St. 116.9
17 Auburn 116.6
18 Louisville 116.5
19 Nevada 116.4
20 LSU 115.8
21 Wisconsin 115.7
22 TCU 115.5
23 Oklahoma 115.3
24 Mississippi St. 115.2
25 Houston 115.2
26 Iowa 114.9
27 Mississippi 114.7
28 Marquette 114.4
29 Villanova 114.3
30 North Carolina St. 113.9
31 Florida St. 113.7
32 Cincinnati 113.5
33 Texas 113.2
34 Florida 113.1
35 Indiana 112.9
36 Ohio St. 112.6
37 Kansas St. 112.6
38 Wofford 112.4
39 Syracuse 112.3
40 Butler 112.2
41 Saint Mary’s 112.1
42 San Francisco 111.7
43 St. John’s 111.6
44 Lipscomb 111.6
45 Washington 111.3
46 Utah St. 111.2
47 Central Florida 111.2
48 Murray St. 111.1
49 Arizona 111.1
50 Virginia Commonwealth 110.6
51 Clemson 110.5
52 Baylor 110.3
53 Alabama 110.2
54 Arizona St. 110.1
55 Creighton 109.9
56 Toledo 109.9
57 Seton Hall 109.8
58 Fresno St. 109.8
59 New Mexico St. 109.6
60 Minnesota 109.5
61 Oregon 109.1
62 Pittsburgh 108.8
63 Northwestern 108.7
64 Arkansas 108.7
65 Hofstra 108.6
66 Temple 108.5
67 Vermont 108.4
68 Dayton 108.4
69 Liberty 108.2
70 Oregon St. 107.8
71 East Tennessee St. 107.7
72 Memphis 107.6
73 Davidson 107.4
74 Yale 107.4
75 Penn St. 107.2
76 Providence 107.0
77 UNC Greensboro 107.0
78 Xavier 107.0
79 Belmont 106.9
80 Missouri 106.9
81 Notre Dame 106.8
82 Furman 106.8
83 Oklahoma St. 106.7
84 Ball St. 106.7
85 UCLA 106.5
86 Miami (Fla.) 106.5
87 West Virginia 106.4
88 Georgia Tech 106.4
89 Saint Louis 106.3
90 Texas St. 106.2
91 Northern Kentucky 106.1
92 Connecticut 106.0
93 Georgetown 106.0
94 Loyola (Chi.) 105.9
95 Colorado 105.9
96 Grand Canyon 105.8
97 South Dakota St. 105.7
98 Old Dominion 105.6
99 Georgia St. 105.6
100 San Diego 105.3
101 Drake 105.2
102 Northeastern 105.2
103 USC 105.1
104 Bowling Green 105.1
105 Jacksonville St. 105.0
106 BYU 104.8
107 DePaul 104.8
108 South Carolina 104.8
109 UC Irvine 104.8
110 Georgia 104.8
111 Vanderbilt 104.7
112 Boston College 104.7
113 Utah Valley 104.6
114 Penn 104.5
115 North Texas 104.4
116 Charleston 104.4
117 Georgia Southern 104.4
118 Rhode Island 104.3
119 Illinois 104.3
120 SMU 104.2
121 Marshall 104.2
122 Brown 104.2
123 Tulsa 104.2
124 Montana 104.1
125 George Mason 103.7
126 South Florida 103.7
127 Radford 103.7
128 Wichita St. 103.7
129 Rutgers 103.6
130 Western Kentucky 103.5
131 Stanford 103.4
132 Austin Peay 103.3
133 Stony Brook 103.3
134 Utah 103.2
135 Louisiana Monroe 103.0
136 Loyola Marymount 102.7
137 Bucknell 102.7
138 Central Michigan 102.6
139 Texas A&M 102.5
140 Akron 102.5
141 UC Santa Barbara 102.4
142 Northern Illinois 102.3
143 Boise St. 102.2
144 Louisiana Tech 102.2
145 Kent St. 102.2
146 Harvard 101.8
147 Lehigh 101.8
148 Duquesne 101.4
149 Colgate 101.4
150 Wright St. 101.3
151 Princeton 101.2
152 Wake Forest 101.1
153 Rider 101.1
154 Winthrop 101.0
155 San Diego St. 100.9
156 UNLV 100.8
157 NJIT 100.7
158 Samford 100.6
159 Abilene Christian 100.6
160 Southern Illinois 100.5
161 Louisiana 100.3
162 UAB 100.0
163 Weber St. 99.9
164 Eastern Michigan 99.8
165 Seattle 99.7
166 Ohio 99.5
167 North Florida 99.5
168 Cal St. Bakersfield 99.5
169 Southern Miss 99.5
170 Miami (O) 99.5
171 Gardner Webb 99.3
172 Illinois St. 99.1
173 Valparaiso 99.1
174 Evansville 99.0
175 Holy Cross 98.9
176 Saint Joseph’s 98.9
177 St. Bonaventure 98.9
178 Omaha 98.8
179 Indiana St. 98.7
180 New Mexico 98.7
181 Santa Clara 98.7
182 Hawaii 98.5
183 Mercer 98.4
184 Massachusetts 98.4
185 Pepperdine 98.4
186 Coastal Carolina 98.4
187 Pacific 98.3
188 Dartmouth 98.2
189 IUPUI 98.1
190 Troy 98.0
191 Florida Int’l. 97.8
192 Presbyterian 97.7
193 Sam Houston St. 97.7
194 Detroit 97.6
195 Florida Atlantic 97.5
196 UTSA 97.3
197 Washington St. 97.1
198 Cal St. Fullerton 97.0
199 Hartford 97.0
200 Long Beach St. 97.0
201 American 96.8
202 UT Rio Grande Valley 96.8
203 Green Bay 96.7
204 Northern Colorado 96.6
205 Purdue Fort Wayne 96.6
206 Missouri St. 96.6
207 UT Arlington 96.6
208 High Point 96.5
209 Delaware 96.4
210 Oakland 96.3
211 UMass Lowell 96.3
212 Fordham 96.3
213 Texas Southern 96.2
214 Richmond 96.2
215 Colorado St. 96.2
216 Northern Iowa 96.2
217 Campbell 96.1
218 East Carolina 96.1
219 California Baptist 96.0
220 North Dakota St. 95.8
221 Western Michigan 95.7
222 Illinois Chicago 95.7
223 Bradley 95.6
224 Little Rock 95.5
225 The Citadel 95.5
226 Eastern Kentucky 95.4
227 Air Force 95.3
228 South Dakota 95.2
229 Longwood 95.1
230 Iona 95.0
231 Cornell 95.0
232 Boston University 94.9
233 William & Mary 94.9
234 Sacred Heart 94.7
235 Arkansas St. 94.6
236 St. Francis (Bklyn) 94.6
237 North Carolina A&T 94.5
238 St. Francis (PA) 94.5
239 UNC Wilmington 94.5
240 Army 94.4
241 Chattanooga 94.4
242 Wagner 94.3
243 Central Arkansas 94.3
244 Drexel 94.3
245 Canisius 94.2
246 Long Island 94.1
247 Missouri Kansas City 94.0
248 Maryland Baltimore Co. 94.0
249 Quinnipiac 93.9
250 Morehead St. 93.9
251 Charleston Southern 93.9
252 Robert Morris 93.8
253 California 93.7
254 Idaho St. 93.7
255 Fairleigh Dickinson 93.7
256 Eastern Illinois 93.6
257 Charlotte 93.6
258 Columbia 93.4
259 Central Connecticut 93.4
260 South Alabama 93.3
261 Appalachian St. 93.3
262 James Madison 93.3
263 Hampton 93.3
264 George Washington 93.2
265 Norfolk St. 93.2
266 Siena 93.1
267 Rice 93.1
268 UC Davis 93.1
269 La Salle 93.0
270 New Orleans 93.0
271 Milwaukee 93.0
272 Stephen F. Austin 92.9
273 Montana St. 92.9
274 Houston Baptist 92.8
275 Southern Utah 92.8
276 Grambling 92.8
277 Jacksonville 92.7
278 Texas A&M CC 92.6
279 Florida Gulf Coast 92.6
280 Lamar 92.5
281 North Dakota 92.4
282 Marist 92.3
283 Prairie View 92.3
284 UTEP 92.2
285 Loyola (Md.) 92.2
286 Monmouth 92.1
287 Cal St. Northridge 92.0
288 Fairfield 91.9
289 Western Illinois 91.9
290 Sacramento St. 91.8
291 Nicholls St. 91.7
292 Youngstown St. 91.5
293 Navy 91.5
294 Western Carolina 91.3
295 Middle Tennessee 91.2
296 Niagara 91.1
297 Eastern Washington 91.1
298 Towson 91.0
299 UC Riverside 90.9
300 Northern Arizona 90.9
301 Oral Roberts 90.9
302 Denver 90.8
303 North Alabama 90.8
304 Alabama St. 90.7
305 Tulane 90.7
306 Southeast Missouri St. 90.6
307 Lafayette 90.5
308 VMI 90.5
309 Albany 90.4
310 Southeastern Louisiana 90.3
311 Cleveland St. 90.3
312 North Carolina Central 90.1
313 Tennessee St. 89.9
314 Bethune Cookman 89.6
315 Saint Peter’s 89.5
316 Arkansas Pine Bluff 89.4
317 Mount St. Mary’s 89.3
318 McNeese St. 89.3
319 Howard 89.2
320 Morgan St. 89.2
321 Portland St. 89.2
322 Portland 89.0
323 USC Upstate 88.6
324 UT Martin 88.5
325 Maine 88.3
326 Cal Poly 88.0
327 Wyoming 88.0
328 Elon 87.9
329 Jackson St. 87.9
330 SIU Edwardsville 87.4
331 Florida A&M 87.4
332 South Carolina St. 87.3
333 Tennessee Tech 87.3
334 Binghamton 87.1
335 Manhattan 86.9
336 Bryant 86.6
337 Idaho 86.2
338 Northwestern St. 86.1
339 San Jose St. 86.0
340 Southern 85.4
341 Stetson 85.2
342 Incarnate Word 84.5
343 New Hampshire 83.6
344 Coppin St. 83.5
345 Kennesaw St. 83.1
346 Savannah St. 82.4
347 Alcorn St. 82.2
348 Alabama A&M 81.6
349 Chicago St. 81.5
350 Mississippi Valley St. 81.4
351 Maryland Eastern Shore 80.5
352 UNC Asheville 80.1
353 Delaware St. 78.2

 

PiRate Rating By Conference

# America East PiRate
67 Vermont 108.4
133 Stony Brook 103.3
199 Hartford 97.0
211 UMass Lowell 96.3
248 Maryland Baltimore Co. 94.0
309 Albany 90.4
325 Maine 88.3
334 Binghamton 87.1
343 New Hampshire 83.6
# American Athletic PiRate
25 Houston 115.2
32 Cincinnati 113.5
47 Central Florida 111.2
66 Temple 108.5
72 Memphis 107.6
92 Connecticut 106.0
120 SMU 104.2
123 Tulsa 104.2
126 South Florida 103.7
128 Wichita St. 103.7
218 East Carolina 96.1
305 Tulane 90.7
# Atlantic 10 PiRate
50 Virginia Commonwealth 110.6
68 Dayton 108.4
73 Davidson 107.4
89 Saint Louis 106.3
118 Rhode Island 104.3
125 George Mason 103.7
148 Duquesne 101.4
176 Saint Joseph’s 98.9
177 St. Bonaventure 98.9
184 Massachusetts 98.4
212 Fordham 96.3
214 Richmond 96.2
264 George Washington 93.2
269 La Salle 93.0
# Atlantic Coast PiRate
1 Duke 126.2
2 Virginia 124.8
7 North Carolina 119.3
9 Virginia Tech 117.9
18 Louisville 116.5
30 North Carolina St. 113.9
31 Florida St. 113.7
39 Syracuse 112.3
51 Clemson 110.5
62 Pittsburgh 108.8
81 Notre Dame 106.8
86 Miami (Fla.) 106.5
88 Georgia Tech 106.4
112 Boston College 104.7
152 Wake Forest 101.1
# Atlantic Sun PiRate
44 Lipscomb 111.6
69 Liberty 108.2
157 NJIT 100.7
167 North Florida 99.5
277 Jacksonville 92.7
279 Florida Gulf Coast 92.6
303 North Alabama 90.8
341 Stetson 85.2
345 Kennesaw St. 83.1
# Big 12 PiRate
8 Kansas 118.7
11 Texas Tech 117.1
16 Iowa St. 116.9
22 TCU 115.5
23 Oklahoma 115.3
33 Texas 113.2
37 Kansas St. 112.6
52 Baylor 110.3
83 Oklahoma St. 106.7
87 West Virginia 106.4
# Big East PiRate
28 Marquette 114.4
29 Villanova 114.3
40 Butler 112.2
43 St. John’s 111.6
55 Creighton 109.9
57 Seton Hall 109.8
76 Providence 107.0
78 Xavier 107.0
93 Georgetown 106.0
107 DePaul 104.8
# Big Sky PiRate
124 Montana 104.1
163 Weber St. 99.9
204 Northern Colorado 96.6
254 Idaho St. 93.7
273 Montana St. 92.9
275 Southern Utah 92.8
290 Sacramento St. 91.8
297 Eastern Washington 91.1
300 Northern Arizona 90.9
321 Portland St. 89.2
337 Idaho 86.2
# Big South PiRate
127 Radford 103.7
154 Winthrop 101.0
171 Gardner Webb 99.3
192 Presbyterian 97.7
208 High Point 96.5
217 Campbell 96.1
229 Longwood 95.1
251 Charleston Southern 93.9
263 Hampton 93.3
323 USC Upstate 88.6
352 UNC Asheville 80.1
# Big Ten PiRate
3 Michigan St. 124.3
6 Michigan 119.6
10 Purdue 117.1
12 Nebraska 117.0
13 Maryland 117.0
21 Wisconsin 115.7
26 Iowa 114.9
35 Indiana 112.9
36 Ohio St. 112.6
60 Minnesota 109.5
63 Northwestern 108.7
75 Penn St. 107.2
119 Illinois 104.3
129 Rutgers 103.6
# Big West PiRate
109 UC Irvine 104.8
141 UC Santa Barbara 102.4
182 Hawaii 98.5
198 Cal St. Fullerton 97.0
200 Long Beach St. 97.0
268 UC Davis 93.1
287 Cal St. Northridge 92.0
299 UC Riverside 90.9
326 Cal Poly 88.0
# Colonial Athletic PiRate
65 Hofstra 108.6
102 Northeastern 105.2
116 Charleston 104.4
209 Delaware 96.4
233 William & Mary 94.9
239 UNC Wilmington 94.5
244 Drexel 94.3
262 James Madison 93.3
298 Towson 91.0
328 Elon 87.9
# Conference USA PiRate
98 Old Dominion 105.6
115 North Texas 104.4
121 Marshall 104.2
130 Western Kentucky 103.5
144 Louisiana Tech 102.2
162 UAB 100.0
169 Southern Miss 99.5
191 Florida Int’l. 97.8
195 Florida Atlantic 97.5
196 UTSA 97.3
257 Charlotte 93.6
267 Rice 93.1
284 UTEP 92.2
295 Middle Tennessee 91.2
# Horizon PiRate
91 Northern Kentucky 106.1
150 Wright St. 101.3
189 IUPUI 98.1
194 Detroit 97.6
203 Green Bay 96.7
210 Oakland 96.3
222 Illinois Chicago 95.7
271 Milwaukee 93.0
292 Youngstown St. 91.5
311 Cleveland St. 90.3
# Ivy PiRate
74 Yale 107.4
114 Penn 104.5
122 Brown 104.2
146 Harvard 101.8
151 Princeton 101.2
188 Dartmouth 98.2
231 Cornell 95.0
258 Columbia 93.4
# Metro Atlantic PiRate
153 Rider 101.1
230 Iona 95.0
245 Canisius 94.2
249 Quinnipiac 93.9
266 Siena 93.1
282 Marist 92.3
286 Monmouth 92.1
288 Fairfield 91.9
296 Niagara 91.1
315 Saint Peter’s 89.5
335 Manhattan 86.9
# Mid-American PiRate
14 Buffalo 117.0
56 Toledo 109.9
84 Ball St. 106.7
104 Bowling Green 105.1
138 Central Michigan 102.6
140 Akron 102.5
142 Northern Illinois 102.3
145 Kent St. 102.2
164 Eastern Michigan 99.8
166 Ohio 99.5
170 Miami (O) 99.5
221 Western Michigan 95.7
# Mideastern Athletic PiRate
237 North Carolina A&T 94.5
265 Norfolk St. 93.2
312 North Carolina Central 90.1
314 Bethune Cookman 89.6
319 Howard 89.2
320 Morgan St. 89.2
331 Florida A&M 87.4
332 South Carolina St. 87.3
344 Coppin St. 83.5
346 Savannah St. 82.4
351 Maryland Eastern Shore 80.5
353 Delaware St. 78.2
# Missouri Valley PiRate
94 Loyola (Chi.) 105.9
101 Drake 105.2
160 Southern Illinois 100.5
172 Illinois St. 99.1
173 Valparaiso 99.1
174 Evansville 99.0
179 Indiana St. 98.7
206 Missouri St. 96.6
216 Northern Iowa 96.2
223 Bradley 95.6
# Mountain West PiRate
19 Nevada 116.4
46 Utah St. 111.2
58 Fresno St. 109.8
143 Boise St. 102.2
155 San Diego St. 100.9
156 UNLV 100.8
180 New Mexico 98.7
215 Colorado St. 96.2
227 Air Force 95.3
327 Wyoming 88.0
339 San Jose St. 86.0
# Northeast PiRate
234 Sacred Heart 94.7
236 St. Francis (Bklyn) 94.6
238 St. Francis (PA) 94.5
242 Wagner 94.3
246 Long Island 94.1
252 Robert Morris 93.8
255 Fairleigh Dickinson 93.7
259 Central Connecticut 93.4
317 Mount St. Mary’s 89.3
336 Bryant 86.6
# Ohio Valley PiRate
48 Murray St. 111.1
79 Belmont 106.9
105 Jacksonville St. 105.0
132 Austin Peay 103.3
226 Eastern Kentucky 95.4
250 Morehead St. 93.9
256 Eastern Illinois 93.6
306 Southeast Missouri St. 90.6
313 Tennessee St. 89.9
324 UT Martin 88.5
330 SIU Edwardsville 87.4
333 Tennessee Tech 87.3
# Pac-12 PiRate
45 Washington 111.3
49 Arizona 111.1
54 Arizona St. 110.1
61 Oregon 109.1
70 Oregon St. 107.8
85 UCLA 106.5
95 Colorado 105.9
103 USC 105.1
131 Stanford 103.4
134 Utah 103.2
197 Washington St. 97.1
253 California 93.7
# Patriot PiRate
137 Bucknell 102.7
147 Lehigh 101.8
149 Colgate 101.4
175 Holy Cross 98.9
201 American 96.8
232 Boston University 94.9
240 Army 94.4
285 Loyola (Md.) 92.2
293 Navy 91.5
307 Lafayette 90.5
# Southeastern PiRate
5 Tennessee 122.5
15 Kentucky 116.9
17 Auburn 116.6
20 LSU 115.8
24 Mississippi St. 115.2
27 Mississippi 114.7
34 Florida 113.1
53 Alabama 110.2
64 Arkansas 108.7
80 Missouri 106.9
108 South Carolina 104.8
110 Georgia 104.8
111 Vanderbilt 104.7
139 Texas A&M 102.5
# Southern PiRate
38 Wofford 112.4
71 East Tennessee St. 107.7
77 UNC Greensboro 107.0
82 Furman 106.8
158 Samford 100.6
183 Mercer 98.4
225 The Citadel 95.5
241 Chattanooga 94.4
294 Western Carolina 91.3
308 VMI 90.5
# Southland PiRate
159 Abilene Christian 100.6
193 Sam Houston St. 97.7
243 Central Arkansas 94.3
270 New Orleans 93.0
272 Stephen F. Austin 92.9
274 Houston Baptist 92.8
278 Texas A&M CC 92.6
280 Lamar 92.5
291 Nicholls St. 91.7
310 Southeastern Louisiana 90.3
318 McNeese St. 89.3
338 Northwestern St. 86.1
342 Incarnate Word 84.5
# Southwestern Athletic PiRate
213 Texas Southern 96.2
276 Grambling 92.8
283 Prairie View 92.3
304 Alabama St. 90.7
316 Arkansas Pine Bluff 89.4
329 Jackson St. 87.9
340 Southern 85.4
347 Alcorn St. 82.2
348 Alabama A&M 81.6
350 Mississippi Valley St. 81.4
# Summit PiRate
97 South Dakota St. 105.7
178 Omaha 98.8
205 Purdue Fort Wayne 96.6
220 North Dakota St. 95.8
228 South Dakota 95.2
281 North Dakota 92.4
289 Western Illinois 91.9
301 Oral Roberts 90.9
302 Denver 90.8
# Sun Belt PiRate
90 Texas St. 106.2
99 Georgia St. 105.6
117 Georgia Southern 104.4
135 Louisiana Monroe 103.0
161 Louisiana 100.3
186 Coastal Carolina 98.4
190 Troy 98.0
207 UT Arlington 96.6
224 Little Rock 95.5
235 Arkansas St. 94.6
260 South Alabama 93.3
261 Appalachian St. 93.3
# West Coast PiRate
4 Gonzaga 122.6
41 Saint Mary’s 112.1
42 San Francisco 111.7
100 San Diego 105.3
106 BYU 104.8
136 Loyola Marymount 102.7
181 Santa Clara 98.7
185 Pepperdine 98.4
187 Pacific 98.3
322 Portland 89.0
# Western Athletic PiRate
59 New Mexico St. 109.6
96 Grand Canyon 105.8
113 Utah Valley 104.6
165 Seattle 99.7
168 Cal St. Bakersfield 99.5
202 UT Rio Grande Valley 96.8
219 California Baptist 96.0
247 Missouri Kansas City 94.0
349 Chicago St. 81.5

 

Conference Ratings

# League PiRate Avg.
1 Big 12 113.3
2 Big Ten 113.2
3 Atlantic Coast 112.6
4 Southeastern 111.2
5 Big East 109.7
6 American Athletic 105.4
7 Pac-12 105.4
8 West Coast 104.4
9 Mid-American 103.6
10 Atlantic 10 101.2
11 Ivy 100.7
12 Mountain West 100.5
13 Southern 100.5
14 Missouri Valley 99.6
15 Sun Belt 99.1
16 Conference USA 98.7
17 Western Athletic 98.6
18 Colonial Athletic 97.0
19 Horizon 96.7
20 Patriot 96.5
21 Ohio Valley 96.1
22 Atlantic Sun 96.0
23 Big West 96.0
24 Summit 95.4
25 Big South 95.0
26 America East 94.3
27 Big Sky 93.6
28 Northeast 92.9
29 Metro Atlantic 92.8
30 Southland 92.2
31 Southwestern Athletic 88.0
32 Mideastern Athletic 87.1

 

PiRate Rating (Alphabetical)

Team PiRate
Abilene Christian 100.6
Air Force 95.3
Akron 102.5
Alabama 110.2
Alabama A&M 81.6
Alabama St. 90.7
Albany 90.4
Alcorn St. 82.2
American 96.8
Appalachian St. 93.3
Arizona 111.1
Arizona St. 110.1
Arkansas 108.7
Arkansas Pine Bluff 89.4
Arkansas St. 94.6
Army 94.4
Auburn 116.6
Austin Peay 103.3
Ball St. 106.7
Baylor 110.3
Belmont 106.9
Bethune Cookman 89.6
Binghamton 87.1
Boise St. 102.2
Boston College 104.7
Boston University 94.9
Bowling Green 105.1
Bradley 95.6
Brown 104.2
Bryant 86.6
Bucknell 102.7
Buffalo 117.0
Butler 112.2
BYU 104.8
Cal Poly 88.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 99.5
Cal St. Fullerton 97.0
Cal St. Northridge 92.0
California 93.7
California Baptist 96.0
Campbell 96.1
Canisius 94.2
Central Arkansas 94.3
Central Connecticut 93.4
Central Florida 111.2
Central Michigan 102.6
Charleston 104.4
Charleston Southern 93.9
Charlotte 93.6
Chattanooga 94.4
Chicago St. 81.5
Cincinnati 113.5
Clemson 110.5
Cleveland St. 90.3
Coastal Carolina 98.4
Colgate 101.4
Colorado 105.9
Colorado St. 96.2
Columbia 93.4
Connecticut 106.0
Coppin St. 83.5
Cornell 95.0
Creighton 109.9
Dartmouth 98.2
Davidson 107.4
Dayton 108.4
Delaware 96.4
Delaware St. 78.2
Denver 90.8
DePaul 104.8
Detroit 97.6
Drake 105.2
Drexel 94.3
Duke 126.2
Duquesne 101.4
East Carolina 96.1
East Tennessee St. 107.7
Eastern Illinois 93.6
Eastern Kentucky 95.4
Eastern Michigan 99.8
Eastern Washington 91.1
Elon 87.9
Evansville 99.0
Fairfield 91.9
Fairleigh Dickinson 93.7
Florida 113.1
Florida A&M 87.4
Florida Atlantic 97.5
Florida Gulf Coast 92.6
Florida Int’l. 97.8
Florida St. 113.7
Fordham 96.3
Fresno St. 109.8
Furman 106.8
Gardner Webb 99.3
George Mason 103.7
George Washington 93.2
Georgetown 106.0
Georgia 104.8
Georgia Southern 104.4
Georgia St. 105.6
Georgia Tech 106.4
Gonzaga 122.6
Grambling 92.8
Grand Canyon 105.8
Green Bay 96.7
Hampton 93.3
Hartford 97.0
Harvard 101.8
Hawaii 98.5
High Point 96.5
Hofstra 108.6
Holy Cross 98.9
Houston 115.2
Houston Baptist 92.8
Howard 89.2
Idaho 86.2
Idaho St. 93.7
Illinois 104.3
Illinois Chicago 95.7
Illinois St. 99.1
Incarnate Word 84.5
Indiana 112.9
Indiana St. 98.7
Iona 95.0
Iowa 114.9
Iowa St. 116.9
IUPUI 98.1
Jackson St. 87.9
Jacksonville 92.7
Jacksonville St. 105.0
James Madison 93.3
Kansas 118.7
Kansas St. 112.6
Kennesaw St. 83.1
Kent St. 102.2
Kentucky 116.9
La Salle 93.0
Lafayette 90.5
Lamar 92.5
Lehigh 101.8
Liberty 108.2
Lipscomb 111.6
Little Rock 95.5
Long Beach St. 97.0
Long Island 94.1
Longwood 95.1
Louisiana 100.3
Louisiana Monroe 103.0
Louisiana Tech 102.2
Louisville 116.5
Loyola (Chi.) 105.9
Loyola (Md.) 92.2
Loyola Marymount 102.7
LSU 115.8
Maine 88.3
Manhattan 86.9
Marist 92.3
Marquette 114.4
Marshall 104.2
Maryland 117.0
Maryland Baltimore Co. 94.0
Maryland Eastern Shore 80.5
Massachusetts 98.4
McNeese St. 89.3
Memphis 107.6
Mercer 98.4
Miami (Fla.) 106.5
Miami (O) 99.5
Michigan 119.6
Michigan St. 124.3
Middle Tennessee 91.2
Milwaukee 93.0
Minnesota 109.5
Mississippi 114.7
Mississippi St. 115.2
Mississippi Valley St. 81.4
Missouri 106.9
Missouri Kansas City 94.0
Missouri St. 96.6
Monmouth 92.1
Montana 104.1
Montana St. 92.9
Morehead St. 93.9
Morgan St. 89.2
Mount St. Mary’s 89.3
Murray St. 111.1
Navy 91.5
Nebraska 117.0
Nevada 116.4
New Hampshire 83.6
New Mexico 98.7
New Mexico St. 109.6
New Orleans 93.0
Niagara 91.1
Nicholls St. 91.7
NJIT 100.7
Norfolk St. 93.2
North Alabama 90.8
North Carolina 119.3
North Carolina A&T 94.5
North Carolina Central 90.1
North Carolina St. 113.9
North Dakota 92.4
North Dakota St. 95.8
North Florida 99.5
North Texas 104.4
Northeastern 105.2
Northern Arizona 90.9
Northern Colorado 96.6
Northern Illinois 102.3
Northern Iowa 96.2
Northern Kentucky 106.1
Northwestern 108.7
Northwestern St. 86.1
Notre Dame 106.8
Oakland 96.3
Ohio 99.5
Ohio St. 112.6
Oklahoma 115.3
Oklahoma St. 106.7
Old Dominion 105.6
Omaha 98.8
Oral Roberts 90.9
Oregon 109.1
Oregon St. 107.8
Pacific 98.3
Penn 104.5
Penn St. 107.2
Pepperdine 98.4
Pittsburgh 108.8
Portland 89.0
Portland St. 89.2
Prairie View 92.3
Presbyterian 97.7
Princeton 101.2
Providence 107.0
Purdue 117.1
Purdue Fort Wayne 96.6
Quinnipiac 93.9
Radford 103.7
Rhode Island 104.3
Rice 93.1
Richmond 96.2
Rider 101.1
Robert Morris 93.8
Rutgers 103.6
Sacramento St. 91.8
Sacred Heart 94.7
Saint Joseph’s 98.9
Saint Louis 106.3
Saint Mary’s 112.1
Saint Peter’s 89.5
Sam Houston St. 97.7
Samford 100.6
San Diego 105.3
San Diego St. 100.9
San Francisco 111.7
San Jose St. 86.0
Santa Clara 98.7
Savannah St. 82.4
Seattle 99.7
Seton Hall 109.8
Siena 93.1
SIU Edwardsville 87.4
SMU 104.2
South Alabama 93.3
South Carolina 104.8
South Carolina St. 87.3
South Dakota 95.2
South Dakota St. 105.7
South Florida 103.7
Southeast Missouri St. 90.6
Southeastern Louisiana 90.3
Southern 85.4
Southern Illinois 100.5
Southern Miss 99.5
Southern Utah 92.8
St. Bonaventure 98.9
St. Francis (Bklyn) 94.6
St. Francis (PA) 94.5
St. John’s 111.6
Stanford 103.4
Stephen F. Austin 92.9
Stetson 85.2
Stony Brook 103.3
Syracuse 112.3
TCU 115.5
Temple 108.5
Tennessee 122.5
Tennessee St. 89.9
Tennessee Tech 87.3
Texas 113.2
Texas A&M 102.5
Texas A&M CC 92.6
Texas Southern 96.2
Texas St. 106.2
Texas Tech 117.1
The Citadel 95.5
Toledo 109.9
Towson 91.0
Troy 98.0
Tulane 90.7
Tulsa 104.2
UAB 100.0
UC Davis 93.1
UC Irvine 104.8
UC Riverside 90.9
UC Santa Barbara 102.4
UCLA 106.5
UMass Lowell 96.3
UNC Asheville 80.1
UNC Greensboro 107.0
UNC Wilmington 94.5
UNLV 100.8
USC 105.1
USC Upstate 88.6
UT Arlington 96.6
UT Martin 88.5
UT Rio Grande Valley 96.8
Utah 103.2
Utah St. 111.2
Utah Valley 104.6
UTEP 92.2
UTSA 97.3
Valparaiso 99.1
Vanderbilt 104.7
Vermont 108.4
Villanova 114.3
Virginia 124.8
Virginia Commonwealth 110.6
Virginia Tech 117.9
VMI 90.5
Wagner 94.3
Wake Forest 101.1
Washington 111.3
Washington St. 97.1
Weber St. 99.9
West Virginia 106.4
Western Carolina 91.3
Western Illinois 91.9
Western Kentucky 103.5
Western Michigan 95.7
Wichita St. 103.7
William & Mary 94.9
Winthrop 101.0
Wisconsin 115.7
Wofford 112.4
Wright St. 101.3
Wyoming 88.0
Xavier 107.0
Yale 107.4
Youngstown St. 91.5

 

Coming Later Today–An updated Bracketology Report

Coming Tuesday Afternoon–Our third and final Fun Stuff For Stats Buffs will attempt to explain the offensive and defensive efficiency ratings that the NCAA Selection Committee will use as research criteria for Selection Sunday.

 

 

 

 

 

March 2, 2015

America’s Most Accurate Bracketology Composite—March 2, 2015

For some leagues, the regular season race is now over, and the important next step begins as 13 conference tournaments begin between Tuesday and Saturday. We have listed the pairings for these baker’s dozen following the regular Bracketology report.

We have adjusted our format beginning this week to better show you the seedings from 1 to 16 of our two dozen plus Bracketology experts. The Bubble has greatly contracted, and it is close to impossible to even select a top 10 teams out of the tournament as of today. It is our belief that at most one or two of these last 10 out have any realistic chance of gaining admission to the Dance; in essence, these are mostly top seeds for the NIT.

Actually, the last 5-10 teams in the tournament as of today are the schools that need close watch. Some will secure a bid by continuing a late-season momentum swing to the positive. Some will misfire at the most inappropriate time and seal their fate to the NIT. And, some will become a victim of upsets in conference tournaments that will need to add one to their pot of dance partners. It could happen this week, as both the Missouri Valley and West Coast Conferences would add a dancer should a 3 seed or higher win these tournaments.

Let’s take a look at how our experts seed the 68 teams as of today. Remember, there are 20 or 21 leagues as of today that will definitely send just one team, so we went with the highest rated team in these leagues, highest rating being their NCAA Tournament criteria and not necessarily their conference record. The higher up each team is within each seed, the higher the team ranked.

The 1-Seeds
Kentucky
Virginia
Duke
Villanova
The 2-Seeds
Arizona
Wisconsin
Kansas
Gonzaga
The 3-Seeds
Oklahoma
Maryland
Baylor
Iowa St.
The 4-Seeds
Wichita St.
Utah
Louisville
Notre Dame
The 5-Seeds
Northern Iowa
Arkansas
North Carolina
West Virginia
The 6-Seeds
Butler
SMU
Providence
Georgetown
The 7-Seeds
VCU
San Diego St.
St. John’s
Ohio St.
The 8-seeds
Michigan St.
Indiana
Oklahoma St.
Dayton
The 9-Seeds
Georgia
Xavier
Iowa
LSU
The 10-Seeds
Colorado St.
Oregon
Ole Miss
Cincinnati
The 11-Seeds
Texas A&M
N. C. St.
Boise St.
Tulsa
Purdue
The 12-Seeds
Temple
Davidson
Wofford
Murray St.
Stephen F. Austin
The 13-Seeds
Louisiana Tech
Harvard or Yale
Valparaiso
Iona
The 14-Seeds
UC Davis
Central Michigan
Georgia Southern
Eastern Washington
The 15-Seeds
South Dakota St.
William & Mary
High Point
UNC-Central
The 16-Seeds
Albany
New Mexico St.
Texas Southern
Florida Gulf Coast
Bucknell
St. Francis (NY)

 

Last 10 IN

59 Oregon
60 Ole Miss
61 Cincinnati
62 Texas A&M
63 N. C. St.
64 Boise St.
65 Tulsa
66 Purdue
67 Temple
68 Davidson

 

First 10 OUT

69 BYU
70 Texas
71 Illinois
72 UCLA
73 Stanford
74 Miami (FLA.)
75 Pittsburgh
76 Old Dominion
77 TCU
78 Vanderbilt

 

Opening Round at Dayton

Tulsa vs. Davidson

Temple vs. Purdue

Texas Southern vs. St. Francis (NY)

Florida Gulf Coast vs. Bucknell

 

Sweet 16 if Seeds Held

East Regional

1 Virginia vs. 4 Notre Dame

2 Gonzaga vs. 3 Oklahoma

South Regional

1 Kentucky vs. 4 Louisville

2 Kansas vs. 3 Maryland

Midwest Regional

1 Duke vs. 4 Utah

2 Wisconsin vs. 3 Baylor

West Regional

1 Villanova vs. 4 Wichita St.

2 Arizona vs. 3 Iowa St.

 

Conference Tournament Pairings for Tournaments Commencing This Week

America East Conference Tournament
All Games Played at Lower Seed
Wednesday, March 4
8 Maine 2-14/3-26 @
1 Albany 15-1/21-8
5 Hartford 7-9/14-15 @
4 New Hampshire 11-5/18-11
6 Binghamton 5-11/6-25 @
3 Stony Brook 12-4/21-10
7 UMBC 2-14/6-25 @
2 Vermont 12-4/17-12
Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament
All Games Played at Lower Seed
Tuesday, March 3
8 Stetson 3-11/9-21 @
1 North florida 12-2/20-11
5 Lipscomb 7-7/13-16 @
4 Northern Kentucky 7-7/13-16
6 Kennesaw St. 4-10/10-21 @
3 USC Upstate 8-6/21-10
7 Jacksonville 4-10/10-21 @
2 Florida Gulf Coast 11-3/21-9
Big South Conference Tournament
Conway, SC
Wednesday, March 4
8 Presbyterian 6-12/10-21
9 Longwood 5-13/9-22
Winner vs. 1 Charleston Southern 13-5/19-10
4 Winthrop 12-6/17-12
5 Radford 12-6/21-10
6 UNC-Asheville 10-8/14-15
11 Liberty 2-16/8-23
Winner vs. 3 Coastal Carolina 12-6/21-9
7 Gardner-Webb 10-8/18-13
10 Campbell 4-14/10-21
Winner vs. 2 High Point 13-5/22-8
Colonial Conference Tournament
Baltimore
Friday, March 6
8 Elon 6-12/14-17
9 Towson 5-13/12-19
Winner vs. 1 William & Mary 12-6/18-11
4 James Madison 12-6/19-12
5 Hofstra 10-8/19-12
3 Northeastern 12-6/20-11
6 Delaware 9-9/10-19
7 Drexel 9-9/11-18
10 Charleston 3-15/8-23
Winner vs. 2 UNCW 12-6/17-12
Horizon League Conference Tournament
All Games Played at Lower Seed
Tuesday, March 3
8 Youngstown St. 2-14/11-20 @
5 Detroit 7-9/14-17
Winner at 4 Cleveland St. 11-5/17-13
Subsequent winner at 1 Valparaiso 13-3/26-5
7 Wright St. 3-13/11-19 @
6 UIC 4-12/8-23
Winner at Oakland 11-5/16-15
Subsequent winner at 2 Green Bay 12-4/23-7
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament
Albany, NY
Thursday, March 5
8 Siena 7-13/10-19
9 Niagara 7-13/8-21
Winner vs. 1 Iona 17-3/24-7
4 Monmouth 13-7/17-14
5 Canisius 11-9/16-13
6 Quinnipiac 9-11/15-14
11 Marist 5-15/6-24
Winner vs. 3 Manhattan 13-7/17-14
7 St. Peter’s 8-12/14-17
10 Fairfield 5-15/7-23
Winner vs. 2 Rider 15-5/21-10
Missouri Valley Conference Tournament
St. Louis (Arch Madness)
Thursday, March 5
8 Missouri St. 5-13/11-19
9 Southern Illinois 4-14/11-20
Winner vs. 1 Wichita St. 17-1/27-3
4 Illinois St. 11-7/19-11
5 Evansville 9-9/19-11
3 Indiana St. 11-7/15-15
6 Loyola (Chi.) 8-10/18-12
7 Drake 6-12/9-21
10 Bradley 3-15/8-23
Winner vs. 2 Northern Iowa 16-2/27-3
Northeast Conference Tournament
All Games Played at Lower Seed
Wednesday, March 4
8 LIU 8-10/12-17
1 St. Francis (NY) 15-3/21-10
5 St. Francis (PA) 9-9/15-14 @
4 Mt. St. Mary’s 11-7/15-14
6 Sacred Heart 9-9/15-16 @
3 Bryant 12-6/15-14
7 Wagner 8-10/10-19 @
2 Robert Morris 12-6/16-14
Ohio Valley Conference Tournament
Nashville
Wednesday, March 4
5 Morehead St. 10-6/15-16
8 SEMO 7-9/13-16
Winner vs. 4 UT-Martin 10-6/18-11
Subsequent winner vs. 1 Murray St. 16-0/26-4
6 E. Illinois 9-7/16-13
7 SIU-Edwardsville 8-8/12-15
Winner vs. 3 Belmont 11-5/19-10
Subsequent winner vs. 2 Eastern Kentucky 11-5/19-10
Patriot League Tournament
All Games Played at Lower Seed
Tuesday, March 3
9 Loyola (MD) 7-11/11-18 @
8 Holy Cross 8-10/13-15
Winner at 1 Bucknell 13-5/18-13
5 Boston U 9-9/13-16 @
4 Lafayette 9-9/17-12
6 American 8-10/15-15 @
3 Lehigh 10-8/15-13
10 Army 6-12/15-14 @
7 Navy 8-10/12-18
Winner at 2 Colgate 12-6/15-16
Southern Conference Tournament
Asheville, NC
Friday, March 6
8 UNCG 6-12/10-21
9 Samford 6-12/13-18
Winner vs. 1 Wofford 16-2/25-6
4 Western Carolina 9-9/14-16
5 East Tennessee 8-10/16-13
3 Mercer 12-6/17-14
6 VMI 7-11/11-18
7 Citadel 6-12/11-18
10 Furman 5-13/8-21
Winner vs. 2 Chattanooga 15-3/22-9
Summit League Tournament
Sioux Falls, SD
Saturday, March 7
1 South Dakota St. 12-4/21-9
8 Western Illinois 3-13/8-19
4 IPFW 9-7/16-13
5 South Dakota 9-7/16-15
3 Oral Roberts 10-6/17-13
6 IUPUI 6-10/10-20
2 North Dakota St. 12-4/20-9
7 Denver 6-10/12-17
West Coast Conference Tournament
Las Vegas
Friday, March 6
8 San Francisco 7-11/13-17
9 Pacific 4-14/12-18
Winner vs. 1 Gonzaga 17-1/29-2
4 Pepperdine 10-8/17-12
5 San Diego 8-10 15-15
3 St. Mary’s 13-5/21-8
6 Portland 7-11/16-14
7 Santa Clara 7-11/13-17
10 Loyola Marymount 4-14/8-22
Winner vs. 2 BYU 13-5/23-8

 

February 23, 2015

America’s Most Accurate Bracketology Composite—February 23, 2015

And down the stretch they come! By the end of this week, the first conference tournament brackets will be finalized, and by the end of the following week, the rest of the leagues will follow suit.

Not a lot changed last week, but there has been subtle updates to the field of 68. Without further adieu, let’s take a look at the 1-bid leagues first. Here are the contenders for each of these low-major leagues, with the highest rated team displaying their predicted seed if they win their conference tournament (conference championship in Ivy).

America East Conf. Overall Seed
Albany 13-1 19-8 16 *
Vermont 11-3 16-11
Stony Brook 11-4 19-10
New Hampshire 11-4 17-10
Atlantic Sun Conf. Overall Seed
Florida Gulf Coast 11-1 21-7 15
North Florida 10-2 18-11
USC Upstate 7-5 20-9
Big Sky Conf. Overall Seed
Sacramento St. 12-3 18-8
Montana 12-3 16-10
Eastern Washington 11-3 20-7 14
Northern Arizona 10-4 15-12
Portland St. 8-7 14-11
Big South Conf. Overall Seed
High Point 12-4 21-7 15
Charleston Southern 12-4 18-9
Coastal Carolina 11-5 20-8
Radford 11-5 20-9
Winthrop 11-5 16-11
Gardner-Webb 9-7 17-12
UNC Asheville 9-7 13-14
Big West Conf. Overall Seed
UC Davis 11-1 21-4 14
UC Irvine 9-3 16-10
UC Santa Barbara 7-5 14-12
Long Beach St. 7-5 13-15
UC Riverside 7-6 14-13
Colonial Conf. Overall Seed
Northeastern 11-5 19-10 15
William & Mary 11-5 17-10
James Madison 11-5 18-11
UNC Wilmington 11-5 16-11
Hofstra 9-7 18-11
Conference USA Conf. Overall Seed
Louisiana Tech 12-3 21-7 13
UTEP 11-3 19-7
UAB 11-4 15-13
Old Dominion 9-5 20-6
Western Kentucky 9-5 16-10
Middle Tennessee 8-7 15-13
UT San Antonio 7-7 13-12
North Texas 7-7 13-13
Horizon Conf. Overall Seed
Valparaiso 12-2 25-4 12
Cleveland St. 11-4 17-12
Green Bay 10-4 21-7
Oakland 10-4 15-14
Milwaukee 7-7 12-16
Ivy Conf. Overall Seed
Harvard 9-1 19-5 12
Yale 8-2 19-8
Metro Atlantic Conf. Overall Seed
Iona 16-2 23-6 13
Rider 13-5 19-10
Monmouth 12-6 16-13
Manhattan 11-6 14-12
Canisius 10-8 15-12
Mid-American Conf. Overall Seed
Central Michigan 10-4 20-5 14
Kent State 10-4 19-8
Toledo 10-4 18-9
Bowling Green 9-5 17-8
Buffalo 8-6 17-9
Akron 8-6 17-10
Mid-Eastern Conf. Overall Seed
North Carolina Central 13-0 21-6 16
Norfolk St 10-3 17-11
UM-Eastern Shore 9-5 16-13
Howard 8-5 14-13
Delaware St. 7-5 13-14
Hampton 7-6 11-15
South Carolina St. 7-6 10-18
Northeast Conf. Overall Seed
St. Francis (NY) 14-2 20-9 16 *
Mt. St. Mary’s 10-6 14-13
Robert Morris 10-6 14-14
Bryant 10-6 13-14
St. Francis (PA) 8-8 14-13
LIU Brooklyn 8-8 12-15
Wagner 8-8 10-17
Ohio Valley Conf. Overall Seed
Murray St. 14-0 24-4 13
Belmont 10-5 18-10
Tenn-Martin 9-5 17-10
Eastern Kentucky 8-5 16-10
Eastern Illinois 9-6 16-12
Morehead St. 7-6 12-16
SIU-Edwardsville 8-7 12-14
Patriot Conf. Overall Seed
Bucknell 12-4 17-12 16 *
Colgate 10-6 13-16
Lehigh 9-7 15-12
Lafayette 8-8 16-11
Boston University 8-8 12-15
Southern Conf. Overall Seed
Wofford 14-2 23-6 12
Chattanooga 13-3 20-9
Mercer 11-5 16-13
East Tennessee St. 8-8 16-11
Western Carolina 8-8 13-15
Southland Conf. Overall Seed
Sam Houston St. 13-1 22-5 13
Stephen F. Austin 12-1 22-4
Northwestern St. 10-4 15-10
Texas A&M-CC 9-5 14-12
Southwestern Conf. Overall Seed
Texas Southern 11-2 14-12 16 *
Prairie View 8-5 10-16
Jackson St. 7-7 9-18
Summit Conf. Overall Seed
South Dakota St. 12-3 21-8 15
North Dakota St. 12-3 20-8
IPFW 8-6 15-12
Oral Roberts 8-6 15-13
South Dakota 8-6 15-14
Sun Belt Conf. Overall Seed
Georgia Southern 12-4 19-6 14
Georgia St. 12-4 19-8
UL Monroe 12-4 18-9
UL Lafayette 10-7 16-12
UT-Arlington 9-7 15-11
Western Ath. Conf. Overall Seed
New Mexico St. 11-1 19-10 16
CSU Bakersfield 7-5 12-16
UMKC 6-5 11-17
Seattle 6-6 13-13
Note: Asterisk (*) indicates opening round participant

Here is how our expert bracketologists see the multi-bid conferences as of today.

American Conf. Overall Seed
SMU 13-2 22-5 6
Tulsa 12-2 19-7 Bubble
Temple 10-5 19-9 11
Cincinnati 9-5 18-9 10
Memphis 9-5 17-10 Out
Connecticut 8-6 15-11 Out
Atlantic Coast Conf. Overall Seed
Virginia 13-1 25-1 1
Notre Dame 12-3 24-4 3
Duke 11-3 24-3 1
Louisville 9-5 21-6 4
North Carolina 9-5 19-8 4
Pittsburgh 7-7 18-10 Bubble
Miami (FL) 7-7 17-10 Bubble
N. C. St. 7-7 16-11 11
Atlantic 10 Conf. Overall Seed
VCU 11-3 21-6 5
Rhode Island 11-3 19-6 Bubble
Dayton 10-4 20-6 11
Davidson 10-4 19-6 Bubble
UMass 9-5 16-11 Bubble
Richmond 8-6 15-12 Out
George Washington 7-7 17-10 Bubble
St. Bonaventure 7-7 14-11 Out
La Salle 7-7 15-12 Out
Big East Conf. Overall Seed
Villanova 12-2 25-2 2
Georgetown 10-5 18-8 7
Providence 9-5 19-8 6
Butler 9-5 19-8 6
Xavier 8-7 18-10 8
St. John’s 7-7 18-9 9
Big Ten Conf. Overall Seed
Wisconsin 13-1 25-2 2
Maryland 10-4 22-5 4
Michigan St 10-4 19-8 7
Purdue 10-4 18-9 11
Indiana 9-6 19-9 8
Ohio State 8-6 19-8 8
Iowa 8-6 17-10 9
Illinois 7-7 17-10 12
Michigan 7-8 14-13 Out
Minnesota 5-10 16-12 Bubble
Big 12 Conf. Overall Seed
Kansas 11-3 22-5 2
Iowa State 10-4 20-6 3
Oklahoma 10-5 19-8 3
West Virginia 9-5 21-6 6
Baylor 8-6 20-7 4
Oklahoma St 7-8 17-10 7
Texas 6-8 17-10 10
Kansas St 6-9 13-15 Out
TCU 3-11 16-11 Bubble
Missouri Valley Conf. Overall Seed
Northern Iowa 15-1 26-2 5
Wichita St. 15-1 25-3 5
Mountain West Conf. Overall Seed
San Diego St 12-3 22-6 7
Wyoming 10-4 21-6 Out
Boise State 10-4 20-7 Bubble
Colorado St 10-5 23-5 9
Utah State 9-5 16-10 Out
Pac-12 Conf. Overall Seed
Arizona 12-2 24-3 2
Utah 11-3 21-5 3
Oregon 10-5 20-8 11
Stanford 8-6 17-9 12
Oregon St 8-7 17-10 Out
UCLA 8-7 16-12 Bubble
Arizona St 7-7 15-12 Bubble
Southeastern Conf. Overall Seed
Kentucky 14-0 27-0 1
Arkansas 11-3 22-5 5
Texas A&M 10-4 19-7 10
Ole Miss 10-4 19-8 8
LSU 8-6 19-8 10
Georgia 8-6 17-9 9
Florida 6-8 13-14 Bubble
West Coast Conf. Overall Seed
Gonzaga 16-0 28-1 1
Saint Mary’s 12-4 20-7 Out
BYU 11-5 21-8 Bubble

Here is the bubble–last 10 in and first 14 out.

Last 10 In #
Texas A&M 59
Cincinnati 60
LSU 61
Dayton 62
N. C. St. 63
Temple 64
Purdue 65
Oregon 66
Stanford 67
Illinois 68
1st 14 Out #
Tulsa 69
Pittsburgh 70
Boise St. 71
UCLA 72
Davidson 73
BYU 74
Miami (FL) 75
Florida 76
U Mass 77
Minnesota 78
Arizona St. 79
TCU 80
Rhode Island 81
George Washington 82

Here are the Opening Round participants to play at Dayton.

Opening Round Games (Dayton)
11 Oregon vs.
11 Purdue
12 Stanford vs.
12 Illinois
16 Albany vs.
16 St. Francis (NY)
16 Bucknell vs.
16 Texas Southern

And, here are the top four seeds by region.

Top 4 Seeds By Region
East Team
1 Virginia
2 Kansas
3 Iowa St.
4 Maryland
South Team
1 Kentucky
2 Arizona
3 Oklahoma
4 Louisville
Midwest Team
1 Duke
2 Villanova
3 Utah
4 Baylor
West Team
1 Gonzaga
2 Wisconsin
3 Notre Dame
4 North Carolina

February 13, 2015

College Basketball and The Shot Clock

Imagine that you just purchased a very special smart phone from Honest Abe’s Electronics.  In point of fact, Honest Abe’s is located in the outer reaches of the Twilight Zone.

You attempt to text your special girl that you are on your way to meet her to go to the football game, but when you hit the “send” button, a flash of white light envelopes your body, and you are temporarily unable to see your surroundings.

Then, as if a flash of the camera has passed, you find that you have been transported to a parallel universe almost identical to the Earth, but with one difference.  You have been dropped in a 50-yard line seat at what appears to be a college football stadium you do not recognize.  A game program is in your hand telling you that you are at Tech Stadium ready to watch Tech play State.

As you read, you discover that both teams are 9-0.  The winner will advance to the Asteroid Bowl to face the tough Tigers team that is also 9-0 with one game to play.

“Great!” you think to yourself, and things couldn’t get any better when the college coeds sitting adjacent to you look like clones of Hannah Davis and Kate Upton, except their attire is a little outdated.  If you didn’t know any better, you would swear with those sweaters and bobby socks, they are trying to look like coeds from 1950’s America.

Somehow, you find a way to focus your attention on the football field.  The game kicks off at the 40-yard line, and the kicker punches it straight through with a steel-toed kicking shoe, much like was used in the 1950’s in America.

The kick sails 50 yards to the 10-yard line, and it is returned 18 yards to the 28, where State begins the first drive of the game.

Quickly, you cannot believe your eyes when Tech’s defense sure looks like the Wide Tackle 6 formation; you remember that your grandfather told you all about how he had played defensive guard.  As you chuckle quietly, you almost choke when State comes to the line in the Split-T formation.  On the first play, the State QB slides down the line and hands off to the right halfback on a straight-hitting dive play that picks up two yards.

After getting eight yards in three antiquated running plays, State punts, and Tech returns the ball to their 38 yard line.  Then, you notice something funny.  No substitutions were made in any of these plays since the kickoff.  Even the Tech kicker stayed in the game as a defensive halfback, if that’s what they called the position before there were cornerbacks.

Quickly, you realize that this parallel universe is a type of “Pleasantville.”  The 1950’s never ended, and for a second as you glance at your two new friends sitting either side of you, you realize something.  College football in the 1950’s may have sounded incredible when Gramps told you about the big games, but compared to today’s brand of football, it was as boring as watching the paint dry on the picket fence.  Thank goodness the NCAA made several rules’ changes between 1955 and 2014.

Eventually, Tech scores a touchdown to win the game 6-0, as the kicker shanked the point after.  The game ends, and you cannot wait to get out and look for the Marilyn Monroe and Kim Novak lookalikes that must exist in this place.

As you leave the stadium, a paper flies out of the wooden press box above.  It is a page of the stats for the game.

There were 120 total plays from scrimmage, of which 108 were running plays and 12 were passing plays.  The teams combined to complete five of the 12 pass attempts for 60 total yards through the air.  The 108 rushing attempts led to 350 rushing yards.  Tech won the game by holding onto the ball for the last eight minutes in a long drive that went from their 15 yard line to the State 30.

You notice that even though there were three opportunities for State to attempt field goals of 20-30 yards, the State coach never considered it.  Because there are limited substitutions in this brand of 1950’s college football, kicking specialists do not exist.  The State kicker is none other than one of the inside linebacker/offensive guards.

As you wish you were back in the 21st Century watching college football with 160 scrimmage plays, 80-100 passing plays, and more than 1,000 yards of offense, the white light comes from out of nowhere, and you are holding onto the hand of your girl, as you enter a 100,000-seat stadium to watch a game that could decide whether your favorite team will stay in the hunt for a college playoff spot.

This sounds impossible, correct?  Of course, it is, since Rod Serling is no longer around.  However, if you are a college basketball fan, you have been transported back to the equivalent of college football in the 1950’s, even if you didn’t see the white flash.

Yes, college basketball in 2015 is your parallel universe where all the exciting action has been taken out of the game.  Like the drastic change in total possessions between college football in 1954 and 2014, basketball has gone the opposite way with about 25 fewer possessions per game than 40-50 years ago.  And, the game has suffered immensely.

The average college basketball team today plays at a pace of 65 possessions per game.  Let’s take a look at the real past.  The statistics I am about to give you are not 100% exact, because certain data does not exist that can be used to make the data 100% accurate.  However, we can obtain a close approximation to possessions per game by looking at the statistics we do have.

In case you do not know, you can estimate college basketball possessions with great accuracy by using this formula:

FGA + (.465 * FTA) + TO – OR

Where FGA = field goal attempts, FTA = free throw attempts, TO = turnovers, and OR = offensive rebounds.

For example, if a team averages 52 field goal attempts, 22 free throw attempts, 13 turnovers, and 10 offensive rebounds per game, you can estimate their possessions per game by performing the easy math.

52 + (.465 * 22) + 13 – 10 = 65 possessions (rounded to the nearest whole number), which is about what the average is today in college basketball.

Many of you reading this know that at one time, I missed fewer than a half-dozen Vanderbilt University home basketball games between December 1963 and March of 2001.  It took 6 inches of snow and ice or a fever of 102 or more to keep me away.  Only a 2001 relocation to Colorado ended the streak.  When we returned to Nashville in time for the 2003-04 season, we did not buy tickets, as it was apparent that Vanderbilt would commence using the Princeton offense and its insomnia-curing style of play.  This style of play continued for a few years, but even when the Commodores switched offenses, the game as a whole had become too dull to warrant spending the money and time to attend the games.

The period between 1963-64 and 1975-76 were incredible for a Commodore season ticket holder, as Memorial Gymnasium was an even bigger 6th man for the home team than Cameron Indoor Stadium has been for Duke in the last 30 years.

Coach Roy Skinner did not believe in slow-paced basketball.  Reared in Kentucky, he believed in the principles of Adolph Rupp, and he produced basketball teams that lent themselves to sellouts.  The gym sold out for the season before Thanksgiving, in a time when the first games of the season were not played until the first Monday in December.

Two remodels brought the capacity of Memorial Gym to 15,626, and through the first half of the 1970’s, Vandy’s actual attendance at most games surpassed that amount.  More than one time, the city’s fire marshall, a VU fan himself, had to clear the aisles when those without a seat but with a ticket (often a student) tried to stake a claim and create a dangerous situation.

Why was Memorial Gym so packed, and why did Vanderbilt routinely win 90% of its home games in those days?  There are multiple reasons.  First, Vanderbilt was a perennial national power in the Skinner days.  In 17 seasons, his Vanderbilt squad only once finished with a losing record (still that 12-14 team defeated a 16-0 Kentucky team), and they finished with a losing SEC conference record just twice (6-8 and 8-10).  Skinner retired when his final team finished 12-6 in the SEC, which was considered a major disappointment.

The other reason for the sellouts, which is much more valid, is that Vanderbilt was one of 20-30 college teams that played up-tempo ball for 40 minutes every game.  80-point games were considered subpar performances.  It was routine to go to Memorial Gym and see the Commodores beat a name team 95-85.  Skinner did not schedule low and mid major opponents.  No, he routinely scheduled top 20 teams like North Carolina, Duke, Davidson, (when Davidson was an elite school similar to Gonzaga today), Kansas, St, John’s, Illinois, and SMU (when SMU was the Kentucky of the old Southwest Conference).

A typical game under a Skinner-coached Vanderbilt team found the Commodores with a stat line that looked like this:

FGA = 75, FTA = 30, TO = 18, OR = 16

Do the math, and you come to 91 possessions per game.  This is not just a typical stat line for one game; this is typical of an entire season.

In some games, like against Kentucky, North Carolina, or LSU, the number of possessions exceeded 100.  One night, I watched the Commodores approach 120 possessions in a game against Ole Miss (Vanderbilt scored 130 that night).

The average would be brought down because Vandy had three conference opponents that notoriously slowed the game down in most years.  Auburn used the shuffle offense and frequently held the ball for 45 seconds to a minute before shooting.  Remember, there was no shot clock in those days.

Until Ken Rosemond recruited beefy Bob Lienhard to Athens, Georgia also held the ball against teams like Vandy and Kentucky.  They outright stalled.

By far, the number one enemy of Vanderbilt fans was Tennessee coach Ray Mears.  Prior to the days where he recruited Ernie Grunfeld and Bernard King to Knoxville, Mears was a proponent of deliberate offense and a 1-3-1 trapping zone defense that led to “snoozeball,” for all but the orange-clad fans.

Take away the six games per year against Auburn, Georgia, and Tennessee, and Vanderbilt averaged about 100 possessions per game and 90 points per game.  This was without a shot clock or three-point shot.  Because the Commodores had outstanding guards that could shoot from 20 feet out, it is possible that 8-10 of their made shots per game would count as three-pointers today.  Add the shot clock into the equation, and you are looking at a program that would have averaged 100 points per game had the three slow-paced teams been forced to play with a shot clock.

Now, let’s look at a typical Tennessee team under Mears before the Ernie and Bernie show matriculated from the Empire State.  I will use the 1968-69 team, because I have their stats, and I have become a sort of friend with one of the players on that team, who lives just a jump shot away from me today.

That boring Volunteer team finished second in the SEC with a 13-5 conference record and 21-7 record overall, finishing third in the NIT, which in those days meant you were a top 20 team.

That Vol squad had a scoring margin of 67-58 in a college basketball environment when about 150 points per game was an average total.  This means the average total score in a UT game was about 17 percent below the national average, and about 33% below the average score of a Vanderbilt game that season.

Tennessee’s average possessions can be estimated thusly:

(56 FGA + (.465 * 20 FTA) + 14 TO – 11 OR = 68 possessions.

Remember, these stats came in a year with no shot clock, so teams could hold onto the ball for more than 35 seconds, even a minute if they could hold onto the ball.

Teams like Tennessee and their slow-paced style of play angered fans and coaches of other teams to the point where dozens of coaches and sportswriters, and thousands of fans clamored for a shot-clock.  Yes, those 68 possessions per game were a travesty then, as fans felt like they did not receive their money’s worth.  For what it’s worth, a college basketball ticket in 1968-69 at Memorial Gym went for $8, which had risen from $6 to help pay off the bill for the recent gymnasium expansion.  Today, 68 possessions in a game is above-average!

Put a 1968-69 college basketball fan in that Twilight Zone and transport him to the present day college basketball environment, and he will feel like you felt when you were taken to the parallel universe to watch that 6-0 football game.

Today’s college basketball with its 65 possessions per team per game pales in comparison to the brand of basketball played in the 1960’s and 1970’s when an average team played at a 80-90 possession per game pace.

The basketball purist believes that the rules should not be tinkered with, but I will counter that by saying that college basketball rules have continually been tinkered with through the decades, so basketball purity demands rules changes when they are needed.

The three-point shot and shot clock took basketball to new heights when they were instituted in the 1980’s, as in the early part of that decade, the game became stagnant with low-scoring games and some important games ending with the winning team not even scoring 40 points.

The shot-clock started at 45 seconds before moving to 35 seconds like it is today.  There is talk about trying a 30-second clock in this year’s NIT.  A few basketball experts support the 24-second clock like the NBA.

If you know me, you know I am a baseball sabermetrician.  I am into sports metrics and participate actively in sabermetric endeavors.

I can bore you with a lengthy treatise to show you exactly when a baseball manager should call for a sacrifice bunt attempt and when he should not.  I can tell you mathematically how to determine the efficiency a base stealer must have in order to help his team by trying to steal a base in every possible situation.

For basketball, I can also show you what changing the shot clock from 35 to 30 and to 24 seconds would do to total possessions per game and then make an assumption or two to refine what the math shows us.

In recent weeks, I have looked at tapes of numerous college games.  I had to take stimulants to stay awake through these boring dribblethons that led to teams getting anywhere from 52 to 69 possessions.  I tried to limit my monitoring to Top 20 teams, so I watched Kentucky, Duke, Virginia, Northern Iowa, Wisconsin, and others.

What I was looking for was the percentage of possessions where a shot was taken with five seconds or less on the shot clock.  Obviously, if the shot clock were reduced to 30 seconds per possession rather than 35, then these would be the possessions affected the most (there would be a secondary adjustment that I will not bore you with).

I found over the course of about 200 total games that on average in 2015, a college team will shoot the ball, turn the ball over, or draw a foul in the final five seconds of the shot clock about 18% of the time.  If we postulate that these 12 possessions per team per game now took exactly five fewer seconds due to the shot clock moving from 35 to 30 seconds, then you can estimate that the total number of possessions per team per game would rise slightly from 65 to 71 possessions per game.  This would represent merely a modest gain of 9% additional possessions.

What if we went all the way and tried a 24-second clock?  I have not had the opportunity to look at enough games to establish a pattern, but from the three dozen games I have charted this year, about 69% of all possessions exceed 24 seconds.  This includes offensive rebounds with immediate shots, turnovers, and fouls before 24 seconds elapsed, meaning that almost all other possessions used more than 24 seconds.

This would definitely change the game.  If you postulate that all the current possessions in excess of 24 seconds all of a sudden took a maximum of 24 seconds, then the number of total possessions per team per game would head north almost back to where it was in the 1970’s, when college basketball was definitely much more exciting to watch than it is today.

College football is up-tempo, and it is just behind the NFL in popularity.  College basketball is not there.  A 24-second clock would bring the excitement back, as teams would not be able to walk the ball up the floor and then dribble around the perimeter for 30 seconds.  It would be a team game once again with much less dribbling and much more passing and movement of players.  Time would not allow such stagnation as we see in today’s basketball game, where the players without the ball should be forced to purchase a ticket to enter the arena.

Let me address one additional item.  I have heard uninformed basketball fans make the claim that a 24-second clock would put an end to upsets and teams like Butler making deep runs in the NCAA Tournament and would leave teams like Kentucky and Duke in control of the sport.

This is bogus.  First, let’s look at Kentucky today.  The Wildcats average just 63 possessions per game, and they are dominating.  It is my belief, as well as the belief of others with higher basketball intelligence that if they are to be defeated this season, it will come from a team that speeds up the tempo and forces the Cats into enough turnovers to overcome the dominant rebounding the Blue Mist has.

Mathematically, in a game with limited possessions, there will be a lower standard deviation of points scored per possession.  The dominant team actually has a better mathematical chance of winning over the lesser-talented team.  In a game with higher possessions, the standard deviation of points scored per possession rises as well.  Definitely, there is a chance for a larger blowout win by the superior team, but there is also a greater chance that the dominant team will be off enough to fall to the opponent.

The up-tempo game may allow a Kentucky to beat an Auburn by 45 points rather than 10-15, but in the low-possession game, Kentucky may have a 97% chance of winning, while in the high-possession game, they may only have a 90% chance of winning.

What’s that?  Did I hear you asking me if a regular season college basketball game has ever been played using a 24-second clock?  The answer to that is, “Yes!”

There has been one regular season college game played with a 24-second clock, unfortunately more than 50 years ago. And, where was this college game played using said 24-second shot clock?  At none other than Memorial Gymnasium at Vanderbilt University under Coach Roy Skinner, Vanderbilt played Baylor in March of 1959 using an experimental 24-second clock.  The Bears led by double digits with less than 10 minutes to play, and in those days, a lead like this would have been nearly impossible to overcome in the time remaining.  However, with BU limited to just 24-seconds per possession, they could not freeze the ball.  Vanderbilt came back and won by a point on a jump shot from the top of the key in the closing seconds.

Imagine a college game where the teams cannot afford to dribble walk the ball up the floor for nine seconds.  Imagine teams unable to walk the ball up the floor and then dribble around the perimeter for a combined 25 seconds.  Imagine more teams utilizing full-court pressure to force opponents into using up 1/3 of a 24-second shot clock.  This will lead to basketball with 80-100 possessions once again.  With the three-point shot and 90 possessions per team per game, many teams will approach 100 points per game, and the truly great defensive teams will be great because they will score off their defense and force teams into .75 points per possession.

Individually, you will see a lot more double-doubles and even more triple doubles.  If a player averages 16 points and 8 rebounds today in a 65-possession environment, then he should produce close to 22 points and 11 rebounds per game in a 90-possession environment.

Back to Kentucky of 2015: the Wildcats are undefeated, but they are not in the same level of superiority as the UCLA teams of the 1960’s and 1970’s.  This team has liabilities that can be exploited by other teams.  We believe UK will not win the national championship this year if the right team shows up in their bracket.

What type of team can topple Kentucky in the Big Dance?  It will be a team that can run up and down the floor and score points before Karl-Anthony Towns, Willie Cauley-Stein, and Dakari Johnson can get there to alter the shots.  It will be a team that can run up and down the floor possession after possession to wear down the Cats’ big men, who have not yet been forced to play extended minutes at an accelerated pace. It will be the team that defensively can get in the passing lanes and steal passes and turn them into fast-break points.  We believe that the team that beats Kentucky will do so by forcing the tempo to a minimum of a 70-possession plus game.

Looking at some of the teams with good talent and an ability to play at a quicker pace, Iowa St., West Virginia, and North Carolina stand out as teams with enough talent to pull off a 70-possession pace against Kentucky.  Arizona and Duke could potentially play at that pace, but defensively neither can force Kentucky to speed up.

We do not believe that teams with paces similar to Kentucky can pull off the upset.  Virginia and Wisconsin would have to beat Kentucky by playing to the Wildcats’ strengths, and that does not look like a probable way to beat the Wildcats.

Speaking of the NCAA Tournament, be sure to return to this website Monday, February 16, after 1 PM Eastern Standard Time, to see our latest installment of our Terrific Two Dozen plus accurate bracketologists.  We bring together the most accurate bracketologists in the nation and form a composite master bracketology list to show you if your team needs to buy dancing shows or a new TV.  Forget the famous guys on the three and four-letter networks.  Our bracketologists historically fare much better in accuracy than the guys you may know.

Now, to the PiRate Ratings for this weekend’s top games.  Remember, these are first-year ratings, and we consider them to be experimental.  We use three separate algorithms incorporating basketball’s “four factors” and adjust the data for strength of schedule and home court advantage.  The PiRate Red and PiRate White are hitting close to 80% winners so far, while the PiRate Blue is lagging behind around 70%.  Unlike our football ratings, these ratings cannot be used to pick games against the spread, as they are set up only to pick the winner.  Yes, we supply a point-spread for each game, but the key part of this experimental rating is to try to work our way into picking a successful bracket come NCAA Tournament time.

Home Visitor Red White Blue
Saturday, February 14      
Kentucky South Carolina 23 19 16
Virginia Wake Forest 22 18 21
Gonzaga Pepperdine 24 20 15
Syracuse Duke -10 -6 -7
Butler Villanova -3 -1 2
Kansas Baylor 11 7 7
Louisville N. C. St. 16 12 11
Pittsburgh North Carolina -14 -7 -8
Iowa St. West Virginia 4 6 2
Illinois St. Wichita St. -10 -3 -10
Kansas St. Oklahoma -10 -8 -3
Penn St. Maryland -7 -1 -6
G W U V C U -5 -3 -2
T C U Oklahoma St. -6 -3 -5
Michigan St. Ohio St. -1 1 3
Ole Miss Arkansas 1 4 5
S M U Connecticut 8 6 10
Clemson Virginia Tech 13 8 9
Georgia Auburn 18 13 12
Georgia Tech Florida St. 10 7 2
Tennessee L S U -1 -1 -4
Missouri Mississippi St. -2 2 -5
Texas A&M Florida 2 3 7
Texas Texas Tech 19 16 21
Alabama Vanderbilt 2 4 12
Sunday, February 15
Wisconsin Illinois 19 15 13
Washington St. Arizona -28 -16 -17
Utah California 16 19 10
Missouri St. Northern Iowa -27 -11 -15
Northwestern Iowa -11 -6 -7
Purdue Nebraska 12 9 10
Boston College Miami (FL) -4 -1 3
Indiana Minnesota 3 5 8

August 22, 2013

2013 Big 12 Conference Preview

2013 Big 12 Conference Preview

 

Once thought a dead league, the Big 12 received a reprieve and has thrived these last two years.  The league produced a Heisman Trophy winner in 2011, and placed nine of its ten members in bowls last year.  In 2013, it could produce a National Championship Game participant.

 

This league remains stable this year after the departures of Colorado, Nebraska, Missouri, and Texas A&M, and the arrivals of TCU and West Virginia in the last two seasons.  The nine-game conference schedule guarantees that all two-team ties are easily broken without having to use several tiebreakers.

 

Coach Mack Brown welcomes back to Texas the most experience squad he’s ever fielded in Austin.  The Longhorns had to rebuild for a couple of years, but they are poised to go on a big run this year with 19 starters returning to the first team offense and defense.  The Longhorns will be a juggernaut on the offensive side of the ball.  Even though their defense might give up 24 points per game, the offense should average more than 40 and outscore every opponent on the regular season schedule.

 

Three years in a row:  That’s the current streak in Stillwater, Oklahoma, for Mike Gundy’s Oklahoma State Cowboys.  OSU has averaged in excess of 40 points per game three years running (and passing), and the pokes should make it four in a row with the return of quarterback Clint Chelf and most of his key receivers.  Can an offense that has improved its total yardage output per game from 520 to 546 to 547 in the last three seasons improve yet again?  Yes, it can top 550 this year, and OSU could even challenge the 50 points per game barrier.  The key game is at Texas on November 16, and it could be the big one of the season.

 

TCU may have as much talent this year as they had in 2010, when the Horned Frogs ran the table in the Mountain West Conference and won the Rose Bowl.  However, in this year’s Big 12, they are no better than third best and possibly fourth best.  The defense could lead the conference in fewest points and yards allowed, but this is a league where offense rules.  The Horned Frogs averaged 27.2 points per game in league play, and that was good enough for only eighth best in the league.  That number will have to jump by a touchdown if TCU is to challenge the two powers.  It doesn’t help that they must play Oklahoma St. and Texas in back-to-back weeks in October.  Additionally, they face Oklahoma in Norman, and TCU figures to be an underdog in all three games.  Throw in an opening game against LSU at Cowboys Stadium, and it looks like a four-loss season in Ft. Worth.

 

Oklahoma has endured back-to-back three loss seasons, and the Sooners may be looking at another one as well.  The defense must reload with the loss of four of the top five tacklers, including the top run defender and the top pass defender.  The OU offense may take a small step backward this year, as it lost its starting quarterback and top two receivers.  Fret not Sooner fans, for you rebuilding means averaging 30 points and 425 yards per game.

 

Baylor looks for its fourth consecutive winning season under Art Briles.  The Bears survived the loss of RGIII and Kendall Wright and emerged with eight victories in 2012.  Bryce Petty is the new quarterback, and he should top 4,000 yards passing in his first year as a starter.  The Bears return two backs capable of topping 1,000 yards rushing, but the offensive line needs reworking.  Baylor will score a lot of points again this season, but the defense will give up a lot of points as well.  It will be very exciting in Waco, but this unit will just scrape by with enough wins to stay above .500.

 

Kansas St. will be lucky to stay bowl eligible this year after the defense left the building.  Six of the top seven tacklers must be replaced on the defense, and the offense must replace Collin Klein at quarterback.  Coach Bill Snyder relies on a lot of junior college talent, so his teams frequently have a lot of upperclassmen.  Thanks to a schedule that gives the Wildcats three guaranteed non-conference wins to start the season, KSU should find a way to stay bowl eligible.

 

Texas Tech breaks in a new head coach, as former Red Raider quarterback Kliff Kingsbury returns to Lubbock after running the offense of Johnny Football U in College Station last year.  Kingsbury will return the Red Raiders to the Air Raid offense after former coach Tommy Tuberville tried to make TTU Auburn west.  Look for the offense to struggle a bit and fall under .500 this year, but Kingsbury will soon have the Red Raiders scoring points like they did under Mike Leach.

 

West Virginia has a bigger rebuilding job to face than Texas Tech.  The Mountaineers cannot replace Geno Smith and his 4200+ yards and TD/Int ratio of 42/6!  Add the losses of two receivers that both grabbed more than 100 passes and combined for more than 2,900 receiving yards and 37 touchdowns, and the Mountaineers will see their offense fall by more than 10 points per game this year.  This team only went 7-6 last year, so hopes for a winning season are very dim in 2013.

 

Paul Rhoads has done great work at Iowa St., leading the Cyclones to three bowls in his four seasons in Ames.  If he can squeeze six wins out of this team, then the NCAA needs to name the National Coach of the Year Award, the Rhoads Award.  ISU must rebuild on both sides of the ball, and with this conference’s offensive fireworks, it could get ugly several Saturdays this fall.  Of the bottom four teams, ISU hosts Kansas, but must play at Texas Tech and West Virginia.  Expect at least nine and possibly ten losses this year.

 

Kansas has nowhere to go but up.  Since going 12-1 with an Orange Bowl win in 2007, the Jayhawks have seen their win number drop every year since then (8, 7, 5, 3, 2, and 1).  While it is still mathematically possible that the number could drop again, we don’t see that happening.  Second year coach Charlie Weis should find a way to lead KU to a very modest improvement and put an end to the 21-game losing streak in league play.

 

 

Pre-season PiRate Ratings

Big 12 Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Texas

0-0

0-0

127.3

116.2

127.8

Oklahoma St.

0-0

0-0

122.0

111.2

122.7

T C U

0-0

0-0

118.0

115.1

118.9

Oklahoma

0-0

0-0

115.8

111.6

115.2

Baylor

0-0

0-0

112.5

103.2

112.4

Kansas St.

0-0

0-0

111.9

104.5

110.8

Texas Tech

0-0

0-0

104.1

96.6

102.9

West Virginia

0-0

0-0

102.1

97.4

101.1

Iowa St.

0-0

0-0

99.7

92.8

98.3

Kansas

0-0

0-0

93.9

91.5

92.8

     

League Averages    

110.7

104.0

110.3

 

2013 Official Preseason Media Poll

 

Pos

Team

Points

1st Place

1

Oklahoma St.

365

15

2

Oklahoma

355

8

3

T C U

347

9

4

Texas

337

8

5

Baylor

282

2

6

Kansas St.

240

1

7

Texas Tech

161

0

8

West Virginia

126

0

9

Iowa St.

96

0

10

Kansas

56

0

 

2013 Preseason Media All-Conference Team

 

Offense

Pos Player School
QB Casey Pachall TCU
RB Lache Seastrunk Baylor
RB John Hubert Kansas State
WR Josh Stewart Oklahoma State
WR Eric Ward Texas Tech
TE Jace Amaro Texas Tech
OL Cyril Richardson Baylor
OL Cornelius Lucas Kansas State
OL Gabe Ikard Oklahoma
OL Trey Hopkins Texas
OL Le’Raven Clark Texas Tech
     

Defense

Pos Player School
DL Devonte Fields TCU
DL Calvin Barnett Oklahoma State
DL Jackson Jeffcoat Texas
DL Kerry Hyder Texas Tech
LB Bryce Hager Baylor
LB Jordan Hicks Texas
LB Shaun Lewis Oklahoma State
DB Ty Zimmerman Kansas State
DB Jason Verrett TCU
DB Aaron Colvin Oklahoma
DB Quandre Diggs Texas
     

Special Teams

Pos Player School
K Jaden Oberkrom TCU
P Kirby Van Der Kamp Iowa State
KR Tyler Lockett Kansas State
PR Tramaine Thompson Kansas State

 

PiRate Ratings Summary

 

About Grades

93-100         A+

86-92           A

79-85           A-

72-78           B+

65-71           B

58-64           B-

51-57           C+

44-50           C

37-43           C-

30-36           D

0-29             F

 

About Predictions

Predictions are based on the PiRate Ratings with home field advantage factored in.  The PiRate Ratings use different home field advantages for every game, since the opponent factors into the equation.

 

Team

Baylor Bears

               
Head Coach

Art Briles

               
Colors

Green and Gold

               
City

Waco, TX

               
2012 Record              
Conference

4-5

Overall

8-5

               
Grades              
Run Offense

92

Pass Offense

93

Run Defense

67

Pass Defense

59

               
Ratings              
PiRate

112.5

Mean

103.2

Bias

112.4

               
Rankings              
PiRate

32

Mean

46

Bias

32

               
Prediction              
Conference

4-5

Overall

7-5

 

 

Team

Iowa St. Cyclones

               
Head Coach

Paul Rhoads

               
Colors

Cardinal and Gold

               
City

Ames, IA

               
2012 Record              
Conference

3-6

Overall

6-7

               
Grades              
Run Offense

64

Pass Offense

67

Run Defense

58

Pass Defense

68

               
Ratings              
PiRate

99.7

Mean

92.8

Bias

98.3

               
Rankings              
PiRate

59

Mean

92

Bias

70

               
Prediction              
Conference

1-8

Overall

2-10

 

 

Team

Kansas Jayhawks

               
Head Coach

Charlie Weis

               
Colors

Crimson and Blue

               
City

Lawrence, KS

               
2012 Record              
Conference

0-9

Overall

1-11

               
Grades              
Run Offense

76

Pass Offense

62

Run Defense

60

Pass Defense

42

               
Ratings              
PiRate

93.9

Mean

91.5

Bias

92.8

               
Rankings              
PiRate

82

Mean

99

Bias

87

               
Prediction              
Conference

1-8

Overall

3-9

 

 

Team

Kansas St. Wildcats

               
Head Coach

Bill Snyder

               
Colors

Royal Purple (and Silver)

               
City

Manhattan, KS

               
2012 Record              
Conference

8-1

Overall

11-2

               
Grades              
Run Offense

90

Pass Offense

64

Run Defense

81

Pass Defense

77

               
Ratings              
PiRate

111.9

Mean

104.5

Bias

110.8

               
Rankings              
PiRate

33

Mean

42

Bias

34

               
Prediction              
Conference

5-4

Overall

8-4

 

 

Team

Oklahoma Sooners

               
Head Coach

Bob Stoops

               
Colors

Crimson and Cream

               
City

Norman, OK

               
2012 Record              
Conference

8-1

Overall

10-3

               
Grades              
Run Offense

83

Pass Offense

89

Run Defense

74

Pass Defense

76

               
Ratings              
PiRate

115.8

Mean

111.6

Bias

115.2

               
Rankings              
PiRate

22

Mean

26

Bias

24

               
Prediction              
Conference

7-2

Overall

9-3

 

 

Team

Oklahoma St. Cowboys

               
Head Coach

Mike Gundy

               
Colors

Orange and Black

               
City

Stillwater, OK

               
2012 Record              
Conference

5-4

Overall

8-5

               
Grades              
Run Offense

79

Pass Offense

99

Run Defense

87

Pass Defense

81

               
Ratings              
PiRate

122.0

Mean

111.2

Bias

122.7

               
Rankings              
PiRate

5

Mean

28

Bias

5

               
Prediction              
Conference

8-1

Overall

11-1

 

 

Team

Texas Longhorns

               
Head Coach

Mack Brown

               
Colors

Burnt Orange and White

               
City

Austin

               
2012 Record              
Conference

5-4

Overall

9-4

               
Grades              
Run Offense

93

Pass Offense

95

Run Defense

91

Pass Defense

90

               
Ratings              
PiRate

127.3

Mean

116.2

Bias

127.8

               
Rankings              
PiRate

3

Mean

8

Bias

3

               
Prediction              
Conference

9-0

Overall

12-0

 

 

Team

T C U Horned Frogs

               
Head Coach

Gary Patterson

               
Colors

Purple and White

               
City

Ft. Worth, TX

               
2012 Record              
Conference

4-5

Overall

7-6

               
Grades              
Run Offense

82

Pass Offense

76

Run Defense

92

Pass Defense

84

               
Ratings              
PiRate

118.0

Mean

115.1

Bias

118.9

               
Rankings              
PiRate

15

Mean

13

Bias

14

               
Prediction              
Conference

6-3

Overall

8-4

 

 

Team

Texas Tech Red Raiders

               
Head Coach

Kliff Kingsbury

               
Colors

Red and Black

               
City

Lubbock, TX

               
2012 Record              
Conference

4-5

Overall

8-5

               
Grades              
Run Offense

57

Pass Offense

86

Run Defense

71

Pass Defense

60

               
Ratings              
PiRate

104.1

Mean

96.6

Bias

102.9

               
Rankings              
PiRate

45

Mean

78

Bias

45

               
Prediction              
Conference

2-7

Overall

5-7

 

 

Team

West Virginia Mountaineers

               
Head Coach

Dan Holgersen

               
Colors

Old Gold and Blue

               
City

Morgantown, WV

               
2012 Record              
Conference

4-5

Overall

7-6

               
Grades              
Run Offense

63

Pass Offense

83

Run Defense

65

Pass Defense

56

               
Ratings              
PiRate

102.1

Mean

97.4

Bias

101.1

               
Rankings              
PiRate

47

Mean

72

Bias

51

               
Prediction              
Conference

2-7

Overall

4-8

 

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