The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 26, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Football–September 30-October 2, 2021

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 1:08 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
Miami (Fla.)Virginia11.89.011.8
TulsaHouston0.92.50.6
MarylandIowa-0.3-1.2-4.2
Utah St.BYU-18.9-17.5-20.0
Florida St.Syracuse4.64.65.5
North CarolinaDuke22.021.125.5
East CarolinaTulane-1.6-1.2-2.1
ClemsonBoston College15.815.617.8
PurdueMinnesota5.23.75.2
Georgia TechPittsburgh3.22.53.4
North Carolina St.Louisiana Tech23.822.624.9
Georgia St.Appalachian St.-6.2-6.4-8.2
South CarolinaTroy13.512.912.6
Ball St.Army-8.5-8.8-11.2
Penn St.Indiana8.810.010.6
TempleMemphis-12.4-11.5-12.9
Iowa St.Kansas40.040.645.4
MassachusettsToledo-20.6-21.2-22.7
IllinoisCharlotte17.617.016.7
Wake ForestLouisville11.410.910.4
BuffaloWestern Michigan4.63.04.6
RutgersOhio St.-15.3-13.1-15.6
Coastal CarolinaLouisiana-Monroe34.831.936.7
Northern IllinoisEastern Michigan-5.1-5.4-4.5
Boise St.Nevada10.08.310.6
New MexicoAir Force-10.6-10.5-12.7
ColoradoUSC-8.8-9.2-11.1
Notre DameCincinnati-4.1-2.1-4.0
San Jose St.New Mexico St.31.330.731.6
Oregon St.Washington7.56.06.5
CaliforniaWashington St.3.36.86.6
StanfordOregon-4.7-4.8-7.2
Miami (O)Central Michigan5.04.02.9
Kent St.Bowling Green19.320.520.7
AlabamaOle Miss16.515.416.8
NavyCentral Florida-13.4-13.1-15.8
SMUSouth Florida13.715.314.6
Oklahoma St.Baylor3.63.73.7
GeorgiaArkansas18.818.721.1
AkronOhio U-4.5-7.7-8.6
MissouriTennessee6.77.96.7
TCUTexas-4.2-3.8-3.9
KentuckyFlorida-8.6-8.4-9.3
Kansas St.Oklahoma-16.2-13.8-15.8
Florida AtlanticFlorida Int’l.9.610.69.0
VanderbiltConnecticut13.611.714.7
West VirginiaTexas Tech16.413.814.3
LSUAuburn-0.81.50.9
WisconsinMichigan2.61.43.2
Texas A&MMississippi St.12.312.913.0
Georgia SouthernArkansas St.2.11.22.2
UTSAUNLV14.816.615.6
RiceSouthern Miss.1.80.20.9
South AlabamaLouisiana-13.5-11.5-14.5
UABLiberty-3.7-4.9-5.2
Middle TennesseeMarshall-8.1-8.2-7.7
NebraskaNorthwestern7.88.18.8
Michigan St.Western Kentucky25.623.623.7
UTEPOld Dominion6.46.44.0
UCLAArizona St.2.01.92.0
HawaiiFresno St.-2.0-4.4-4.9

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

RankTeamRating
1Georgia132.2
2Alabama130.8
3Oklahoma124.5
4Cincinnati120.3
5Iowa St.119.9
6Florida119.3
7Ohio St.119.1
8Texas118.5
9Clemson118.0
10Ole Miss117.6
11Texas A&M116.4
12Penn St.116.2
13Arkansas115.7
14Auburn115.1
15Iowa114.8
16Notre Dame113.9
17U S C113.6
18West Virginia113.6
19Oregon113.3
20North Carolina113.3
21L S U112.6
22Arizona St.112.2
23Oregon St.112.0
24U C L A111.7
25Michigan111.7
26T C U111.6
27Miami (Fla.)111.1
28Wisconsin111.1
29Wake Forest110.6
30BYU110.2
31Coastal Carolina110.0
32Oklahoma St.109.9
33Maryland109.9
34Utah109.8
35NC State109.4
36Indiana109.4
37Baylor109.2
38Michigan St.108.8
39Washington108.3
40Kentucky107.5
41Louisiana107.1
42Mississippi St.106.7
43Missouri106.7
44Purdue106.6
45Nebraska106.6
46Virginia Tech106.3
47Kansas St.106.2
48Boise St.105.8
49Liberty105.3
50Minnesota104.8
51Stanford104.7
52Boston College104.6
53Virginia103.3
54Army102.8
55Louisville102.7
56Georgia Tech102.7
57Appalachian St.102.7
58Pittsburgh102.6
59Tennessee102.6
60UCF102.5
61Texas Tech101.8
62San Diego St.101.7
63South Carolina101.4
64Rutgers101.4
65Northwestern101.3
66SMU101.3
67Colorado100.9
68Fresno St.100.9
69Houston100.5
70California100.4
71Nevada99.1
72Tulane98.9
73Tulsa98.8
74Florida St.98.7
75Wyoming97.9
76Miami (Ohio)97.9
77Washington St.97.8
78San Jose St.97.8
79U A B97.7
80Air Force97.6
81U T S A97.3
82Central Michigan96.9
83Buffalo96.7
84Marshall96.4
85Syracuse96.3
86Illinois95.7
87Toledo95.3
88Western Michigan95.1
89Memphis95.0
90East Carolina94.3
91Eastern Michigan94.2
92Kent St.94.2
93Georgia St.93.7
94Hawaii93.1
95Troy91.4
96Duke91.4
97Arizona91.3
98South Alabama90.9
99Ball St.90.7
100Colorado St.90.7
101Florida Atlantic90.7
102Utah St.89.9
103USF89.7
104Louisiana Tech88.6
105Western Kentucky87.5
106Arkansas St.86.6
107Northern Illinois86.2
108Georgia Southern86.0
109Navy85.4
110Middle Tennessee85.4
111Ohio85.0
112U N L V84.6
113New Mexico83.4
114Southern Miss.83.3
115Texas St.82.5
116Vanderbilt82.4
117Florida Int’l.82.0
118Rice81.8
119Charlotte81.6
120Kansas80.9
121Temple80.7
122North Texas80.0
123UL-Monroe78.5
124U T E P78.0
125Bowling Green76.5
126Akron75.6
127Old Dominion74.9
128UMass71.7
129Connecticut71.1
130New Mexico St.69.6

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Cincinnati120.0119.2121.8120.3
UCF102.2101.1104.2102.5
SMU100.7101.5101.6101.3
Houston100.999.5101.0100.5
Tulane99.097.7100.198.9
Tulsa98.899.098.598.8
Memphis94.394.995.795.0
East Carolina94.393.695.094.3
USF90.089.290.089.7
Navy85.885.085.485.4
Temple79.981.480.780.7

AAC Averages96.996.697.697.0

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Clemson117.2117.4119.4118.0
Wake Forest110.7110.0111.2110.6
NC State109.6109.0109.5109.4
Boston College104.4104.8104.7104.6
Louisville102.3102.0103.8102.7
Florida St.98.698.798.898.7
Syracuse96.696.695.896.3

Coastal Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
North Carolina112.4112.6114.8113.3
Miami (Fla.)111.6110.3111.6111.1
Virginia Tech107.2105.9105.9106.3
Virginia102.8104.3102.8103.3
Georgia Tech102.6102.7102.8102.7
Pittsburgh102.4103.2102.4102.6
Duke91.492.590.391.4

ACC Averages105.0105.0105.3105.1

Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oklahoma125.8123.3124.3124.5
Iowa St.120.4118.7120.4119.9
Texas119.3117.7118.6118.5
West Virginia115.2113.2112.5113.6
T C U112.1110.9111.7111.6
Oklahoma St.110.3110.0109.3109.9
Baylor109.8109.3108.6109.2
Kansas St.106.5106.6105.5106.2
Texas Tech101.7102.4101.2101.8
Kansas83.481.178.180.9

Big 12 Averages110.5109.3109.0109.6

Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.118.6118.6120.1119.1
Penn St.114.9115.9117.6116.2
Michigan111.0112.0112.0111.7
Maryland111.1109.7108.7109.9
Indiana109.1108.9110.0109.4
Michigan St.109.1108.7108.6108.8
Rutgers100.3102.5101.4101.4

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Iowa114.4113.9116.0114.8
Wisconsin110.5110.4112.2111.1
Purdue106.1105.6108.0106.6
Nebraska106.2106.6106.9106.6
Minnesota103.9104.9105.8104.8
Northwestern101.4101.5101.1101.3
Illinois95.495.796.195.7

Big Ten Averages108.0108.2108.9108.4

Conference USA
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Marshall96.296.196.996.4
Florida Atlantic89.891.490.890.7
Western Kentucky86.588.287.987.5
Middle Tennessee85.184.986.185.4
Florida Int’l.81.281.982.882.0
Charlotte80.881.782.381.6
Old Dominion74.475.275.274.9

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
U A B97.897.697.797.7
U T S A97.097.797.397.3
Louisiana Tech88.989.487.688.6
Southern Miss.82.683.983.383.3
Rice81.981.681.881.8
North Texas80.380.179.680.0
U T E P78.379.076.778.0

CUSA Averages85.886.386.286.1

FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Notre Dame112.9114.0114.8113.9
BYU110.1109.6110.9110.2
Liberty104.5105.4105.9105.3
Army102.7102.8102.7102.8
UMass73.172.269.971.7
Connecticut71.472.569.371.1
New Mexico St.70.070.768.069.6

Indep. Averages92.192.591.692.1

Mid-American Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Miami (Ohio)99.697.496.697.9
Buffalo97.396.396.696.7
Kent St.93.895.493.494.2
Ohio84.285.685.185.0
Bowling Green76.977.475.276.5
Akron77.375.474.175.6

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Central Michigan97.696.496.696.9
Toledo95.895.494.695.3
Western Michigan95.195.794.595.1
Eastern Michigan95.894.192.794.2
Ball St.91.791.589.090.7
Northern Illinois87.685.885.286.2

MAC Averages91.190.589.590.4

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Boise St.105.6105.3106.3105.8
Wyoming97.497.998.597.9
Air Force97.397.598.197.6
Colorado St.90.590.591.190.7
Utah St.89.790.689.489.9
New Mexico83.784.082.483.4

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
San Diego St.102.0101.5101.6101.7
Fresno St.99.5101.2102.0100.9
Nevada98.6100.098.799.1
San Jose St.98.398.396.797.8
Hawaii93.492.893.093.1
U N L V85.284.184.784.6

MWC Averages95.195.395.295.2

Pac-12 Conference
North Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oregon112.2113.2114.5113.3
Oregon St.111.8111.8112.4112.0
Washington107.3108.8108.9108.3
Stanford104.4105.3104.3104.7
California98.0102.2101.0100.4
Washington St.97.798.497.497.8

South Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
U S C113.2113.1114.5113.6
Arizona St.111.8112.4112.5112.2
U C L A111.3111.8112.0111.7
Utah110.1109.9109.5109.8
Colorado101.4101.0100.4100.9
Arizona91.691.191.291.3

Pac-12 Averages105.9106.6106.5106.3

Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Georgia131.7131.7133.3132.2
Florida118.4120.0119.4119.3
Kentucky106.9108.6107.1107.5
Missouri106.5107.2106.3106.7
Tennessee102.8102.2102.6102.6
South Carolina101.7101.5101.2101.4
Vanderbilt83.082.282.082.4

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Alabama130.9129.8131.7130.8
Ole Miss117.3117.4117.9117.6
Texas A&M116.1116.8116.3116.4
Arkansas115.8115.9115.2115.7
Auburn115.6114.4115.4115.1
L S U111.8112.9113.2112.6
Mississippi St.106.8106.9106.3106.7

SEC Averages111.8112.0112.0111.9

Sunbelt Conference
East DivisionPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Coastal Carolina110.8108.3110.8110.0
Appalachian St.102.2101.8104.0102.7
Georgia St.94.193.493.793.7
Troy91.291.691.691.4
Georgia Southern86.186.385.686.0

West DivisionPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Louisiana107.7105.8107.8107.1
South Alabama91.291.390.290.9
Arkansas St.86.587.585.986.6
Texas St.83.981.781.982.5
UL-Monroe79.079.477.178.5

Sun Averages93.392.792.992.9

Conference Ratings

RankConferenceRating
1Southeastern111.9
2Big 12109.6
3Big Ten108.4
4Pac-12106.3
5Atlantic Coast105.1
6American Athletic97.0
7Mountain West95.2
8Sun Belt92.9
9Independents92.1
10Mid-American90.4
11Conference USA86.1

Excellent TV Schedule For A 14-Hour Marathon

After a week with a minimum of outstanding TV games, you will have a feast of great games this coming weekend. It will be possible to sit on your sofa in your man cave from Noon Eastern Time until 2 AM Sunday and be presented with excellent football game choices. This is a weekend where you might want to have multiple monitors at the ready. Here are our starred games on the tube.

All Times Eastern Daylight

Friday Night

Maryland vs. Iowa

The Terrapins haven’t been 5-0 since 2001, when they won the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship and lost to Florida in the Orange Bowl. Maryland Stadium should be jam-packed as Coach Mike Locksley leads his charges onto the field to face the presumptive Big Ten West favorites in this battle of unbeaten teams. It’s still early, but a Hawkeye win to make Iowa 5-0 could put them on pace to run the table to the Big Ten Championship Game.

TV Info: 8 PM on FS1

Saturday Games

Georgia vs. Arkansas

Georgia’s quick 35-0 first quarter lead over Vanderbilt was achieved almost effortlessly, and Coach Kirby Smart took his starters out after the first quarter. It was like a walk-through practice for their regulars.

Arkansas played a tough 60-minute game against old Southwest Conference rival Texas A&M, knocking off the Aggies in a mild upset to start the season 4-0 for the first time since 2003. If you’re wondering when the last time Arkansas was 5-0, it was 1998. A week from today, that should still be true, but this should be an interesting game to watch to start the day. Beating Vanderbilt 62-0 this year is almost inevitable. Beating Arkansas by three touchdowns or more would justify moving the Bulldogs to number one in the nation. Of course, we did that this week.

TV Info: 12 Noon on ESPN

Wisconsin vs. Michigan

This is a fact-finding tour game for both teams. Can Wisconsin play a game without making multiple mental mistakes, or is this ingrained in their 2021 DNA? The Badgers could possibly be undefeated today if not for those crucial game-crushing mistakes. Was that Graham or Ethel Mertz throwing those touchdown passes to Notre Dame defenders at Soldier Field?

What are we to make of Michigan’s lack of offensive production against Rutgers? The Wolverines were leading the FBS in rushing yardage before the Scarlet Knights shut it down. The Maize and Blue need to control this game and win convincingly if they are really contenders for the Big Ten East title this year.

TV Info: 12 Noon on Fox

Missouri vs. Tennessee

Call this game a bowl qualifier. The winner has a strong path to bowl eligibility, while the loser will need to pull off at least one if not two upsets to get to 6-6. What makes this a much-watch game is that this is the middle of the SEC, and these teams have just enough talent to pull off an upset down the road against a potential Playoff-contender.

TV Info: 12 Noon on SEC Network

TCU vs. Texas

Some of the shine came off this game when TCU fell to Metroplex rival SMU. However, both teams are still undefeated in the Big 12, and the winner becomes the top contender to Oklahoma, who all of a sudden looks quite vulnerable. This should be your typical Southwestern Shootout with up to 90 total points scored, and if Texas wins handily like they did against Texas Tech, the Sooners better take notice before they head to the State Fair the week after.

TV Info: 12 Noon on ABC

Notre Dame vs. Cincinnati

Clemson has played itself out of the Playoff race with two losses. Ohio State will follow the Tigers if they lose another game. Texas A&M and Iowa State couldn’t live up to their preseason hype. If the Playoff Committee has to choose four teams today, Alabama, Georgia, and Oklahoma would be three of the choices, but choice number four would be wide open between Penn State, Oregon, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, and Florida. The winner of this game in South Bend is going to be in great shape to run the table. Notre Dame’s remaining schedule looks soft. Cinti has one tough game at home against SMU and a possible rematch in the AAC Championship Game. We pronounce this one to be the top game of the day. Clear your schedule. This game should be close and may not be decided until the closing minutes.

TV Info: 2:30 PM on NBC

Alabama vs. Ole Miss

For the rest of the nation not reading this feature, this will be their game of the week. The top two Heisman Trophy Award contenders will face off in Tuscaloosa. Tide quarterback Bryce Young is being called the best game manager in college football. You want to know another former Alabama quarterback that was an excellent game manager? Bart Starr merely led the Green Bay Packers to five NFL Championships.

Matt Corral is the exciting, dual threat superstar that has given Alabama all of its defeats in the last decade. Ole Miss could score 40 or more points in this game and still lose by double digits. It should be an interesting game, but the Tide has a bit more talent, and Nick Saban owns part of Lane Kiffin’s subconscious.

TV Info: 3:30 PM on CBS

Kansas St. vs. Oklahoma

Oklahoma doesn’t look anything like a Playoff contender, as they were lucky to survive at home against a fair but not great West Virginia team. Kansas State laid an egg against an Oklahoma State team that has not been the most dominant 4-0 team.

The loser of this game will most likely lose at least one other conference game, and that will eliminate that team from Playoff contention. Kansas State lost to Arkansas State the week before going to Norman last year and handing the Sooners a loss. The Wildcats have the talent to repeat the upset, especially if the OU offense doesn’t get a tune-up this week in practice.

TV Info: 3:30 PM on Fox

Stanford vs. Oregon

The Ducks earned a lot of Playoff Committee bonus points by winning at Ohio State, but their other games have not been totally impressive. The Pac-12 has so much parity that the also-ran teams have better chances to upset the contenders than in any other Power 5 league. Stanford hasn’t defeated a quality team this year, as USC has now proven to be mediocre at best. The Ducks have had difficulty winning in Palo Alto through the years, and a loss here would kill their chances of making the Playoffs, especially with road games against Washington, UCLA, and Utah still to be played.

TV Info: 3:30 PM on ABC

Rutgers vs. Ohio St.

As John McEnroe might say, “you cannot be serious!” Rutgers playing Ohio State is a key TV game? The Buckeyes might be walking into a garden ambush at SHI Stadium in Piscataway. Rutgers had a chance to win in Ann Arbor, and they stopped a btter running game than Ohio State has this year. Can they also stop a top passing game? It should be interesting and worth watching.

TV Info: 3:30 PM on Big Ten Network

Kentucky vs. Florida

Who will play top contender for the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC East? Kentucky has been improving year by year on the defensive side but has been lacking offensively due to problems passing the ball. Coach Mark Stoops brought Liam Coen to Lexington after running the Los Angeles Rams’ offense. The Wildcats still have a top notch defense, but the passing game is struggling a bit.

In the second half of their game against Alabama, Florida looked like the superior team. A lousy first half did the Gators in. Not having Anthony Richardson to play these last two games have played a little toll on the Gator offense. If Richardson is full strength, Florida should be able to top Kentucky in Lexington. Florida must keep winning every week to make the Georgia game essential. The Gators are still very much in the Playoff race.

TV Info: 6 PM on ESPN

Oklahoma St. vs. Baylor

Who would have predicted that these teams would both be 4-0 when they faced off? Both teams have to be considered Big 12 Championship Game contenders, but the Cowboys are probably a legitimate contender, where the Bears must still prove they are for real. A win here adds to the proof given when they beat Iowa State.

TV Info: 7 PM on ESPN2

Clemson vs. Boston College

It’s obvious by now that Clemson’s offense has suffered too many losses from last year’s team, as many defenses have successfully held that tiger. Boston College survived a 56-yard field goal to pick up a rare ACC win over an SEC team. At 4-0, the Eagles are one of two remaining undefeated teams left in the league (Wake Forest). If BC can win this game and look like it was not a fluke, then at least, the league can pretend to still have a playoff contender.

TV Info: 7:30 PM on ACC Network

Oregon State vs. Washington

Oregon State played one bad quarter against Purdue in the season opener, and that’s why the Beavers are not 4-0 and threatening to make the Pac-12 North a two-team race. Washington lost to Montana in week one and then fell to Michigan in week two. The Huskies still might win the North Division title, but they have no chance to make the Playoffs.

The winner of this game will be tied for first at the minimum and in sole possession of first if Stanford beats Oregon. OSU looked like a serious contender in their pasting of USC in the Coliseum. The last time the Beavers had won at the Coliseum was 1960, when Tommy Prothro was coaching the team, and future Heisman Trophy quarterback Terry Baker was leading it. If Tristan Gebbia can stay healthy, Oregon State just might be the team that Oregon has to worry about.

TV Info: 9 PM on Pac-12 Network

UCLA vs. Arizona St.

This is a battle for first place in the Pac-12 South, but neither team is in contention for a Playoff bid. ASU lost to BYU, while the Bruins lost to Fresno State. At 12-1, neither team would get in against a third place SEC school that is 11-1.

The PiRates begin updating the ratings during the second half of the late Pac-12 game, so we always have the audio up on these games while working through the wee hours of the morning. These games are always exciting and keep us alert. You get your money’s worth with Pac-12 games, even if it no longer really is the “conference of champions.”

TV Info: 10:30 PM on FS1

September 22, 2021

PiRate Picks For September 23-27, 2021

A Weekend of Despair

We hope you have read numerous times on this site that we do not wager real money on the selections you see here in this weekly feature. We always encourage you to do the same. It is for this reason that we were able to sleep peacefully this week after the incredibly unlucky fortunes that destroyed what could have been a second incredibly successful weekend.

The weekend started out with a nice parlay win as Kansas State beat Nevada and Troy beat Southern Miss. to return a nice $282 on our imaginary $100 wager. The combo parlay with one college game and one pro game was next. Mississippi State had to beat Memphis, and they should have done so. The officials in the game admitted to making a major mistake in the game, and there was a blatant oversight on the same play. Memphis scored the decisive touchdown returning a punt that had already been signaled as dead by the back judge. At the same time, the punt returner wore number four. Nothing wrong with that, but he was not the only number four in the game for the Tigers. Had the mistake not been made, Mississippi State wins the game, and when Denver won the next day, that parlay would have been a winner of $226.42 on the imaginary $100 wagered to guarantee a winning weekend.

On Sunday, Seattle led Tennessee by two touchdowns in the fourth quarter, and Kansas City led Baltimore by 11 in the fourth quarter. The other parts of the final two parlays had already won. Tennessee scored twice to tie the Seahawks where they went on to win in overtime to kill one parlay, and Baltimore pulled off a minor miracle to beat Kansas City by a point to kill the other one.

Even with the three heartbreakers losing, we are out nothing. No stress means we can return to picking games this week with the same imaginary bank account that never runs out of $100 investment opportunities.

When the opening lines came out, we immediately spotted a huge mistake in one college game. It was the spread in the Georgia-Vanderbilt game, as it opened at 30 1/2 or 31 depending on the books in question. The bookmakers made a big mistake, and within five minutes, that spread had moved to 35. The mistake they made was assuming that Vanderbilt would get about three points for home field advantage. SEC fans and bettors know that Georgia fans will make Vanderbilt Stadium a sea of red. Somewhere either side of 90% will be rooting for the Bulldogs, making this a home game on their opponent’s field. Vanderbilt’s quarterbacks will have to use hand signals on their home field. Georgia is really the home team, and poof, the line may still be low at 35. We don’t issue straight wagers against the line these days. But, we came oh so close to issuing a special bulletin Sunday night when we saw that incredibly low number.

We spent a couple hours looking over the money lines this week looking for certain in-house data to come up with the games we wanted to play. This was a difficult week, because we didn’t particularly like the schedule in either college or pro football. In the end, in order to get our parlays up above +120, we had to go with multiple very long shot combinations at very large odds.

We are going with five selections this week, one of which is not a parlay, but just one single upset pick. Three of our parlays include three games each; we prefer to play two-game parlays, especially when using NFL teams, where it is hard to pick the winners of three games all that often. So, when you look at these picks below, realize they are long shots. Please don’t wager real money on these games unless you have other research data that our selections merely verify.

This Week’s Parlays

Date:Sept 23-27
Odds:+205
Must WinOpponent
Kansas St.Oklahoma St.

Odds:+259.50
Must WinOpponent
Eastern MichiganTexas St.
Michigan St.Nebraska
MemphisUTSA

Odds:+217.69
Must WinOpponent
Michigan St.Nebraska
Boston CollegeMissouri

Odds:+157.86
Must WinOpponent
CarolinaHouston
Kansas CityLA Chargers
Las VegasMiami

Odds:+208.86
Must WinOpponent
ArizonaJacksonville
BuffaloWashington
SeattleMinnesota

September 20, 2021

PiRate Ratings NFL For September 23-27, 2021

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
HoustonCarolina1.40.11.2
JacksonvilleArizona-9.0-8.0-9.8
TennesseeIndianapolis-0.60.4-0.1
DetroitBaltimore-9.5-9.1-9.8
BuffaloWashington13.112.513.7
New EnglandNew Orleans-3.6-1.8-4.9
Kansas CityLA Chargers9.28.98.8
N.Y. GiantsAtlanta3.74.01.7
ClevelandChicago7.16.96.3
PittsburghCincinnati11.510.011.7
Las VegasMiami1.51.31.1
DenverN.Y. Jets10.99.99.8
LA RamsTampa Bay2.33.22.9
MinnesotaSeattle-2.3-1.6-3.1
San FranciscoGreen Bay2.63.23.1
DallasPhiladelphia5.16.03.1

This Week’s PiRate Rating Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
HoustonCarolina49.5
JacksonvilleArizona50.5
TennesseeIndianapolis53.5
DetroitBaltimore55
BuffaloWashington42
New EnglandNew Orleans40.5
Kansas CityLA Chargers54.5
N.Y. GiantsAtlanta50.5
ClevelandChicago45
PittsburghCincinnati41.5
Las VegasMiami45.5
DenverN.Y. Jets39.5
LA RamsTampa Bay56
MinnesotaSeattle51.5
San FranciscoGreen Bay50.5
DallasPhiladelphia44.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo105.8105.6105.9105.723.51-1
New England100.9100.3100.3100.518.51-1
Miami99.299.7100.299.719.51-1
N. Y. Jets92.593.693.593.221.50-2

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore104.7104.1104.9104.6261-1
Pittsburgh103.7103.0103.6103.417.51-1
Cleveland102.1102.2101.0101.8261-1
Cincinnati95.296.094.995.4241-1

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Indianapolis101.1100.2100.4100.6250-2
Tennessee98.098.197.898.028.51-1
Houston95.694.496.395.527.51-1
Jacksonville90.992.690.691.422.50-2

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City106.2106.2106.0106.1311-1
Denver100.5100.4100.3100.4182-0
LA Chargers100.1100.3100.2100.223.51-1
Las Vegas97.798.198.398.0262-0


N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas99.6100.598.699.626.51-1
Philadelphia97.597.598.597.8181-1
N.Y. Giants96.196.295.395.921.50-2
Washington95.796.195.295.718.51-1

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay102.7102.1102.4102.426.51-1
Minnesota99.9100.499.299.8240-2
Chicago98.098.397.798.0191-1
Detroit92.792.592.692.6290-2

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
New Orleans107.5105.1108.1106.9221-1
Tampa Bay107.1106.9106.6106.9282-0
Carolina96.796.897.697.1222-0
Atlanta95.495.296.695.7290-2

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
LA Rams106.5107.1106.5106.7282-0
Seattle105.2105.1105.2105.227.51-1
Arizona102.9103.6103.5103.3282-0
San Francisco102.3102.4102.5102.4242-0

September 19, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Football For September 23-25, 2021

Filed under: Uncategorized — piratings @ 10:39 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
Appalachian St.Marshall9.59.311.3
CharlotteMiddle Tennessee-3.6-2.3-3.4
VirginiaWake Forest-1.01.9-1.1
SyracuseLiberty-6.5-7.9-9.5
Fresno St.UNLV19.222.623.2
MinnesotaBowling Green38.038.742.3
South CarolinaKentucky-1.8-3.9-2.3
Wisconsin (n)Notre Dame5.34.15.5
Ball St.Toledo0.40.6-1.2
Western MichiganSan Jose St.-5.7-5.3-5.0
Eastern MichiganTexas St.8.49.16.9
MarylandKent St.20.116.617.6
PurdueIllinois15.514.716.1
Coastal CarolinaMassachusetts38.336.342.0
Central MichiganFlorida Int’l.23.521.621.1
ArmyMiami (O)5.17.68.4
Ohio St.Akron42.144.147.1
Georgia SouthernLouisiana-20.3-18.0-21.5
Utah St.Boise St.-10.3-8.7-11.0
DukeKansas8.512.313.2
Boston CollegeMissouri0.90.71.6
NorthwesternOhio U17.015.415.2
Georgia TechNorth Carolina-15.2-15.5-18.2
IowaColorado St.30.930.532.7
Western KentuckyIndiana-23.0-21.0-22.9
Air ForceFlorida Atlantic7.15.06.3
UtahWashington St.15.815.115.9
New Mexico St.Hawaii-19.4-17.9-21.0
BYUSouth Florida25.225.826.6
Arizona St.Colorado10.611.712.4
StanfordUCLA-2.2-1.5-3.0
USCOregon St.12.512.613.9
Florida St.Louisville0.10.6-1.2
Oklahoma St.Kansas St.5.95.35.4
AlabamaSouthern Miss.51.548.951.8
VanderbiltGeorgia-39.4-40.3-42.3
HoustonNavy20.019.420.9
OklahomaWest Virginia15.114.716.9
Mississippi St.LSU-2.0-3.0-4.1
ConnecticutWyoming-28.5-28.3-33.0
TulaneUAB6.25.28.0
TexasTexas Tech16.914.216.3
MemphisUTSA0.60.92.6
TCUSMU20.017.818.9
Texas A&M (n)Arkansas4.85.86.4
BaylorIowa St.-10.8-9.6-12.7
FloridaTennessee18.020.318.8
North Carolina St.Clemson-6.1-7.3-9.4
Michigan St.Nebraska6.55.75.5
MichiganRutgers14.513.415.1
Louisiana-MonroeTroy-17.2-17.4-20.3
AuburnGeorgia St.28.828.529.5
TulsaArkansas St.15.715.116.7
Old DominionBuffalo-24.1-22.3-23.0
Louisiana TechNorth Texas12.013.111.8
UTEPNew Mexico-6.0-5.6-6.9
WashingtonCalifornia14.511.613.3
OregonArizona23.825.927.7

FBS vs. FCS Games

FBSFCSPiRate
Penn St.Villanova34.9
Virginia TechRichmond30.7
PittsburghNew Hampshire29.1
TempleWagner26.9
Miami (Fla.)Central Connecticut36.0
Northern IllinoisMaine22.9
San Diego St.Towson28.0
East CarolinaCharleston Sou.25.0
RiceTexas Southern20.8

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

RankTeamRating
1Alabama130.9
2Georgia128.7
3Oklahoma125.2
4Iowa St.121.8
5Cincinnati120.3
6Clemson119.2
7Florida118.9
8Ohio St.118.8
9Texas A&M118.1
10North Carolina118.1
11Auburn117.7
12Ole Miss117.6
13U S C117.5
14Iowa117.4
15Penn St.116.6
16Texas116.3
17Wisconsin114.7
18T C U114.4
19Oregon113.7
20Arkansas113.0
21L S U112.7
22West Virginia112.6
23Michigan112.1
24BYU111.1
25Arizona St.111.0
26Indiana111.0
27U C L A110.8
28Miami (Fla.)110.1
29Utah110.1
30Notre Dame109.7
31Minnesota109.5
32Oklahoma St.109.5
33Washington109.4
34Maryland109.3
35Michigan St.109.1
36Coastal Carolina108.8
37NC State108.5
38Wake Forest108.3
39Louisiana108.1
40Baylor107.8
41Oregon St.107.5
42Kentucky107.3
43Purdue107.2
44Virginia Tech107.1
45Kansas St.106.9
46Mississippi St.106.6
47Missouri106.6
48Liberty106.3
49Nebraska106.2
50Stanford105.6
51Virginia105.2
52Boston College104.7
53Boise St.104.3
54Texas Tech103.5
55Appalachian St.103.0
56Tennessee102.9
57UCF102.5
58Colorado102.4
59Army102.3
60Louisville102.2
61Fresno St.101.9
62Houston101.7
63South Carolina101.6
64Pittsburgh101.6
65San Diego St.101.5
66Rutgers100.7
67San Jose St.100.5
68Wyoming100.5
69Northwestern100.1
70Tulane100.0
71Florida St.99.5
72California99.3
73Tulsa99.1
74Central Michigan99.1
75Nevada99.1
76Georgia Tech98.8
77Miami (Ohio)98.3
78Buffalo97.9
79Washington St.97.5
80SMU97.0
81U T S A96.9
82U A B96.6
83Marshall96.0
84Air Force95.7
85Troy95.6
86Memphis95.3
87East Carolina95.3
88Syracuse95.3
89Illinois94.7
90Kent St.94.2
91Toledo94.0
92Hawaii93.1
93Florida Atlantic92.6
94Western Michigan92.1
95Ball St.92.0
96Georgia St.91.7
97Utah St.91.3
98Eastern Michigan90.9
99Arizona90.9
100South Alabama90.9
101Duke90.4
102Colorado St.89.0
103Louisiana Tech89.0
104USF88.3
105Ohio86.7
106Vanderbilt86.6
107Arkansas St.86.3
108Western Kentucky86.2
109Middle Tennessee86.0
110Northern Illinois86.0
111Texas St.85.8
112Georgia Southern85.2
113New Mexico84.8
114Navy84.6
115U N L V83.3
116Southern Miss.83.2
117Kansas82.1
118Rice82.0
119Charlotte80.9
120Temple80.5
121Florida Int’l.80.0
122North Texas79.7
123U T E P76.6
124Akron75.9
125UL-Monroe75.4
126UMass72.9
127Bowling Green72.8
128Old Dominion72.8
129New Mexico St.69.6
130Connecticut67.5

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Cincinnati120.0119.2121.8120.3
UCF102.2101.1104.2102.5
Houston102.1100.7102.4101.7
Tulane100.098.7101.4100.0
Tulsa99.099.399.099.1
SMU96.497.397.297.0
Memphis94.595.296.395.3
East Carolina95.394.696.095.3
USF88.787.888.488.3
Navy85.184.384.584.6
Temple79.781.280.580.5

AAC Averages96.696.397.496.8


Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Clemson118.1118.5120.8119.2
NC State109.0108.2108.4108.5
Wake Forest108.5107.5108.8108.3
Boston College104.4104.8104.8104.7
Louisville101.8101.4103.3102.2
Florida St.99.499.699.699.5
Syracuse95.895.694.695.3

Coastal Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
North Carolina117.1117.4119.9118.1
Miami (Fla.)110.6109.3110.6110.1
Virginia Tech108.0106.7106.7107.1
Virginia104.5106.3104.7105.2
Pittsburgh101.4102.2101.4101.6
Georgia Tech98.998.998.798.8
Duke90.391.689.490.4

ACC Averages104.8104.9105.1104.9


Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oklahoma126.4123.9125.2125.2
Iowa St.122.2120.5122.6121.8
Texas117.2115.4116.3116.3
T C U114.9113.6114.6114.4
West Virginia114.3112.3111.3112.6
Oklahoma St.110.0109.6108.8109.5
Baylor108.5108.0106.9107.8
Kansas St.107.1107.3106.3106.9
Texas Tech103.3104.2103.0103.5
Kansas84.882.379.382.1

Big 12 Averages110.9109.7109.4110.0

Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.118.2118.3119.9118.8
Penn St.115.3116.3118.0116.6
Michigan111.3112.3112.6112.1
Indiana110.7110.4111.8111.0
Maryland110.7109.1108.1109.3
Michigan St.109.4109.0109.0109.1
Rutgers99.7101.9100.5100.7

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Iowa116.9116.5118.9117.4
Wisconsin114.1114.0116.0114.7
Minnesota108.4109.5110.7109.5
Purdue107.0106.5108.0107.2
Nebraska105.9106.3106.5106.2
Northwestern100.3100.299.7100.1
Illinois94.594.894.994.7

Big Ten Averages108.7109.0109.6109.1


Conference USA
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Marshall96.095.896.396.0
Florida Atlantic91.593.492.892.6
Western Kentucky85.287.086.486.2
Middle Tennessee85.785.586.986.0
Charlotte80.281.181.580.9
Florida Int’l.79.380.080.880.0
Old Dominion72.373.172.972.8

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
U T S A96.897.496.796.9
U A B96.896.696.496.6
Louisiana Tech89.189.888.089.0
Southern Miss.82.583.983.183.2
Rice82.181.882.082.0
North Texas80.179.779.279.7
U T E P77.077.775.176.6

CUSA Averages85.385.985.685.6


FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
BYU110.9110.5112.0111.1
Notre Dame108.8109.9110.5109.7
Liberty105.3106.4107.1106.3
Army102.2102.4102.3102.3
UMass74.373.670.972.9
New Mexico St.70.070.868.069.6
Connecticut68.169.165.467.5

Indep. Averages91.491.890.991.4


Mid-American Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Miami (Ohio)100.197.897.098.3
Buffalo98.497.497.997.9
Kent St.93.795.593.594.2
Ohio85.887.487.086.7
Akron77.775.774.375.9
Bowling Green73.473.871.372.8

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Central Michigan99.898.698.999.1
Toledo94.694.193.494.0
Western Michigan92.292.791.492.1
Ball St.92.992.890.292.0
Eastern Michigan92.690.989.290.9
Northern Illinois87.485.685.086.0

MAC Averages90.790.289.190.0


Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Boise St.104.3103.8104.8104.3
Wyoming99.7100.3101.4100.5
Air Force95.695.596.195.7
Utah St.91.092.190.991.3
Colorado St.89.088.989.289.0
New Mexico85.085.384.084.8

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Fresno St.100.3102.3103.3101.9
San Diego St.101.8101.3101.4101.5
San Jose St.100.9101.099.5100.5
Nevada98.6100.098.799.1
Hawaii93.492.793.093.1
U N L V84.182.783.183.3

MWC Averages95.395.595.495.4


Pac-12 Conference
North Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oregon112.3113.6115.2113.7
Washington108.4109.8110.1109.4
Oregon St.107.4107.3107.7107.5
Stanford105.2106.3105.2105.6
California96.9101.299.899.3
Washington St.97.598.197.097.5

South Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
U S C116.9116.9118.5117.5
Arizona St.110.6111.2111.3111.0
U C L A110.5110.8111.1110.8
Utah110.3110.2109.9110.1
Colorado102.9102.5101.9102.4
Arizona91.590.790.590.9

Pac-12 Averages105.9106.5106.5106.3


Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Georgia128.2128.2129.9128.7
Florida118.1119.8118.9118.9
Kentucky106.7108.5106.8107.3
Missouri106.5107.2106.2106.6
Tennessee103.1102.4103.1102.9
South Carolina101.9101.6101.5101.6
Vanderbilt87.286.486.186.6

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Alabama131.0129.8131.9130.9
Texas A&M117.6118.5118.2118.1
Auburn118.0116.9118.1117.7
Ole Miss117.3117.4117.9117.6
Arkansas113.3113.2112.3113.0
L S U111.8112.9113.3112.7
Mississippi St.106.8106.9106.2106.6

SEC Averages112.0112.1112.2112.1


Sunbelt Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Coastal Carolina109.6106.9109.8108.8
Appalachian St.102.4102.1104.6103.0
Troy95.295.796.095.6
Georgia St.92.291.491.591.7
Georgia Southern85.485.784.685.2

TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Louisiana108.7106.7109.1108.1
South Alabama91.291.390.290.9
Arkansas St.86.387.285.486.3
Texas St.87.184.985.485.8
UL-Monroe76.076.373.775.4

Sun Averages93.492.893.093.1

Conference Ratings

RankConferenceRating
1Southeastern112.1
2Big 12110.0
3Big Ten109.1
4Pac-12106.3
5Atlantic Coast104.9
6American Athletic96.8
7Mountain West95.4
8Sun Belt93.1
9Independents91.4
10Mid-American90.0
11Conference USA85.6

The Big 12 Conference May Stay Big

The departures of Oklahoma and Texas from the Big 12 Conference to the Southeastern Conference was supposed to be the death knell of the Big 12. The planned addition of BYU, Cincinnati ,Central Florida, and Houston supposedly would make the league just another Group of 5 type of conference. How could this new Big 12 compete with the ACC or Pac-12 without the Sooners and Longhorns?

The joke may be on the ACC and Pac-12, because if we remove Oklahoma and Texas and place BYU, UCF, Cinti, and Houston in the Big 12 this week, the cumulative PiRate Rating average for the league would be 107.8. Where does this place the future Big 12 in the overall conference ratings? It puts the league in third place behind the SEC and Big Ten. The SEC improves by 1.1 point with the Sooners and Longhorns added, while the Big 12 drops just 2.2 points by dropping UT and OU and picking up the future four additions.

This is more about how weak the ACC and Pac-12 appear to be this year. Clemson does not warrant Playoff consideration at this point, barely defeating a weak Georgia Tech team yesterday. North Carolina lost to Virginia Tech, which lost to Big 12 middle of the pack team West Virginia. North Carolina State lost to a Mississippi State team that lost at Memphis. Unless Wake Forest or Boston College runs the table, the ACC doesn’t look playoff-worthy this season.

Oregon absolutely must run the table in the weak Pac-12 to have a chance to make the Playoffs. If Ohio State ends up falling back in the pack in the Big Ten, then the Ducks’ win at the Horseshoe will lose its luster. UCLA’s losing at home to Fresno State, while San Diego State knocked off Utah, and Nevada having beat Cal earlier in the season, plus BYU knocking off Arizona State, plus Colorado losing at home to Minnesota 30-0, and then a terrible Arizona team losing to Northern Arizona to extend their losing streak to 15 games, it makes a 13-0 team’s resume look less worthy than any 1-loss team from the SEC, Big Ten, or even Big 12.

The conferences that are aligning to stop the SEC’s domination think that by dragging their feet on playoff expansion, that will prevent up to four SEC teams from getting Playoff bids. They better realize that without expansion, their conferences may not receive any bids for several years. Today, at least three of the top four teams are SEC teams, and if you add Oklahoma to the SEC, then the top four are SEC teams. Expanding to 12 teams and then giving automatic bids to the Power 5 Conference champions may be the only real hope that the Pac-12 will get a team in the Playoffs.

Answering A Question We Get Every Year

We are fortunate to gain new subscribers and casual onlookers to this site every year, and when the newcomers comment, the most frequent question goes something like this: “Why do you rank State 7 places ahead of Tech, when Tech just beat State by 10 points?”

The short answer to that is that we do not RANK teams. We RATE teams. Our ratings are predictive and not retrodictive. Retrodictive rankings and ratings judge teams on what they have done so far. These systems are excellent for determining which teams are most deserving to play in the College Football Playoffs, and in basketball, they are great to determine which teams deserve at-large bids as opposed to NIT bids.

The PiRate Ratings attempt to predict the outcomes of the next week’s games. If Tech beat State by 10 points earlier this year, our ratings may show that State should be Tech by 10 points if they were to play this week. Pro football fans tend to get this principle more than strictly college fans. If the Chiefs lose by three at the Chargers in October, the expectation in December may be that the Chiefs will win by double digits in the rematch. Predictive ratings would probably show the Chiefs to be a touchdown better than LAC, but retrodictive ratings might show the opposite.

This Week’s TV Fare

There are some interesting games on the Tube this week, and if you feel the first cold air of Autumn, this might be a great Saturday afternoon for a hearty stew and a blanket as you veg out on the sofa. The evening games are just after dinner salads for the afternoon banquet. Here are our recommended choices.

All Times Eastern Daylight

12 PM

Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin on Fox: This game takes place on a neutral field at Soldier Field in Chicago. The Fighting Irish don’t appear to be as strong as last year, but they are undefeated and need a quality win, after Florida State and Toledo look awful, and the win over Purdue was only so-so. Meanwhile, UW got an extra week to prepare for this game, and the loss to Penn State doesn’t look as bad now that the Nittany Lions beat Auburn.

Texas vs. Texas Tech on ABC: This game looked like an easy win for the Longhorns back in August, but it looks more like a potential tossup now. Texas has proven it can beat weak teams like Rice by 40 points or more. However, when the Longhorns go up against teams that have muscle and quickness, their talent proves to be just short of exceptional. Texas Tech has been down most of the years since they dismissed Mike Leach, but the Red Raiders have potentially their best team since the Pirate was forced to walk the plank. Their pasting of Houston to begin the season was genuine.

Mississippi State vs. LSU on ESPN: Did you watch the Mississippi State – Memphis game and see the Bulldogs get hosed by the zebras? Not just one, but two bad officiating mistakes were made on the key play of the game. First, the officials did not catch the fact that Memphis had two players wearing the number 4 jersey on a punt and return. Second, Mississippi State obviously downed the same punt, and the back judge signaled for a stoppage in play, leading to the Bulldogs stopping their action. A Memphis player then picked up the ball and ran for a touchdown. The officials were bascially forced to admit after the game that they were human. Mississippi State should be 3-0, and now they must win at least three SEC games to become bowl eligible this year. LSU basically becomes a must-win game. However, this game might be a must-win game for both LSU as a team and Ed Orgeron as a coach in Baton Rouge in 2022.

Boston College vs. Missouri on ESPN2: The ACC needs a signature non-conference win, and it needs a team to stay undefeated. Boston College may be the last hope this year. Missouri isn’t a top 10 team, but the Tigers are a middle of the pack SEC team, but a win over the Tigers would move BC into the top 25. One factor that won’t help BC is the weather. Temperatures figure to be above average, or more like Missouri.

3:30 PM

Texas A&M vs. Arkansas (@ Arlington, TX) on CBS: The first of two great games in this time slot Saturday, the winner of this game will improve to 4-0 with an SEC victory. Second year Arkansas coach Sam Pittman is quickly proving to be one of the best new coaches in college football. The Razorbacks were weaker than Vanderbilt just a couple years ago, and Pittman has his Hogs on the precipice of looking like a New Year’s Bowl team. The Aggies have not found their overdrive gear yet in 2021. The defense has been impressive, but after Minnesota shutout Colorado yesterday, the 10-7 win in Boulder doesn’t look like much. Don’t be shocked if this game was still in doubt in the fourth quarter.

Michigan vs. Rutgers on ABC: This didn’t look like it would be an important game three weeks ago, but all of a sudden, it becomes a crucial game. The winner will be 1-0 in the Big Ten and 4-0 overall. If we had to guess, we’d say this is going game will go under the predicted total, because both teams have quality defenses. Michigan figures to be a double-digit favorite, but the Scarlet Knights will bring their A-game to the Big House, because that’s what Coach Greg Schiano’s teams do. With Ohio State looking somewhat vulnerable this year, the winner of this game will definitely be in contention in the Big Ten East.

North Carolina State v. Clemson on ESPN: We here in the galley of the PiRate ship tend to get cabin fever on Autumn Saturdays using all the ships power to monitor four and sometimes five college football games at once. This one will be part of the afternoon rush. Clemson is close to eliminating itself from the Playoff race. The Tigers didn’t show up yesterday against Georgia Tech. We’re talking Tech not the Bulldogs. Now, CU must leave home to play a Wolf Pack team that has a history of playing a couple of touchdowns better at home than on the road. If NC St. wins this game, the ACC probably gets no playoff team this year.

September 15, 2021

PiRate Picks For September 16-20, 2021

After a swing and a miss on opening week of the football season, last week we went two for two with big wins. Not only did we win both of our Money Line Parlays, we mentioned a first week NFL system that has worked well over the course of a couple of decades. We told you that even though we are only issuing Money Line Parlays this year, that playing the NFL underdogs of 1/2 to 3 points in Week 1 was a winning proposition. There were seven such underdogs last week, and playing them and the points went 5-2.

For the year, our pretend bank account has wagered pretend money on four games, $400 at $100 per wager, and we have received $604.56 in return from the pretend book. That’s a return on investment of 51.14%.

Now, the pressure is on to keep that profit and not give it back to the imaginary book. We begin including NFL games this week, and we have chosen four different parlays, each with more than +120 odds. Additionally, we are doing something we have only done three or four times in the last decade–combine a college game and NFL game into a parlay. We are number’s enthusiasts here on the PiRate ship, so sometimes we are left with orphan numbers needing to go to a matchmaking service. Combining college and pro football games into a hopeful match is rare for us, but there is no real reason not to do it. We just like to know at 1 AM on Sundays whether we won or not.

Enjoy these four parlays, but remember that these are for entertainment purposes only. We strongly urge you not to wager real money on these picks unless you have done your own research, and this feature merely verifies your own findings.

This Week’s Money Line Parlays

Date:
Sept 16-20

Odds:

+182
Must WinOpponent
Kansas St.Nevada
TroySouthern Miss.

Odds:+126.42
Must WinOpponent
Mississippi St.Memphis
DenverJacksonville

Odds:+140.08
Must WinOpponent
LA RamsIndianapolis
Kansas CityBaltimore

Odds:+127.91
Must WinOpponent
ArizonaMinnesota
SeattleTennessee

September 13, 2021

PiRate Ratings NFL Football Week 2: Sep 16-20, 2021

PiRate Ratings Week 2 NFL Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
WashingtonN.Y. Giants2.22.32.4
CarolinaNew Orleans-7.8-5.3-7.5
ClevelandHouston9.510.87.6
ChicagoCincinnati5.55.15.7
PittsburghLas Vegas9.58.48.8
MiamiBuffalo-3.6-2.8-2.7
IndianapolisLA Rams-2.3-3.9-3.1
PhiladelphiaSan Francisco-1.8-1.9-1.0
JacksonvilleDenver-6.5-4.8-6.7
N.Y. JetsNew England-5.9-4.2-4.2
ArizonaMinnesota6.26.57.8
Tampa BayAtlanta14.814.613.0
SeattleTennessee10.29.910.5
LA ChargersDallas3.42.84.6
BaltimoreKansas City1.00.41.5
Green BayDetroit11.911.311.4

PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
WashingtonN.Y. Giants38
CarolinaNew Orleans46
ClevelandHouston53.5
ChicagoCincinnati43
PittsburghLas Vegas43.5
MiamiBuffalo44
IndianapolisLA Rams53
PhiladelphiaSan Francisco44
JacksonvilleDenver40.5
N.Y. JetsNew England41
ArizonaMinnesota50
Tampa BayAtlanta54
SeattleTennessee56
LA ChargersDallas52
BaltimoreKansas City55
Green BayDetroit55.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Week 2
A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo105.8105.6105.9105.7240-1
New England100.9100.3100.3100.5190-1
Miami99.299.7100.299.7201-0
N. Y. Jets92.593.693.593.2220-1

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore104.7104.1104.9104.6250-1
Pittsburgh103.7103.0103.6103.417.51-0
Cleveland102.1102.2101.0101.8260-1
Cincinnati95.296.094.995.4241-0

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Indianapolis101.1100.2100.4100.6250-1
Tennessee98.098.197.898.028.50-1
Houston95.694.496.395.527.51-0
Jacksonville90.992.690.691.422.50-1

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City106.2106.2106.0106.1301-0
LA Chargers100.1100.3100.2100.224.51-0
Denver100.5100.4100.3100.4181-0
Las Vegas97.798.198.398.0261-0

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas99.6100.598.699.627.50-1
Philadelphia97.597.598.597.8191-0
N.Y. Giants96.196.295.395.920.50-1
Washington95.796.195.295.717.50-1

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay102.4101.7101.9102.026.50-1
Minnesota99.7100.198.799.5230-1
Chicago98.298.698.198.3190-1
Detroit93.092.993.193.0290-1

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
New Orleans107.5105.1108.1106.9231-0
Tampa Bay107.1106.9106.6106.926.51-0
Carolina96.796.897.697.1231-0
Atlanta95.495.296.695.727.50-1

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
LA Rams106.5107.1106.5106.7281-0
Seattle105.2105.1105.2105.227.51-0
Arizona102.9103.6103.5103.3271-0
San Francisco102.3102.4102.5102.4251-0

September 12, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Football September 12, 2021

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:56 am

Note: We want to thank all our fans that were part of the opening weekend introduction of the PiRate Ratings Pro Football Simulation Tabletop Game. We were overwhelmed by the number of orders you made for the salute to the American Football League.

If you are interested in knowing more about the game, click on the link below.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
LouisianaOhio U23.319.222.3
LouisvilleCentral Florida0.31.1-0.8
IllinoisMarylalnd-14.3-12.2-11.2
Miami (Fla.)Michigan St.10.39.411.3
MichiganNorthern Illinois20.323.524.3
ArmyConnecticut35.734.538.9
MassachusettsEastern Michigan-15.9-14.8-16.5
TempleBoston College-22.4-21.3-22.0
West VirginiaVirginia Tech9.79.18.3
BuffaloCoastal Carolina-8.7-7.0-9.9
PittsburghWestern Michigan15.816.517.5
OklahomaNebraska25.622.524.0
IndianaCincinnati-3.9-3.1-4.3
Texas A&MNew Mexico35.335.936.9
ColoradoMinnesota4.93.31.4
WyomingBall St.3.44.37.7
Kansas St.Nevada8.97.37.4
Notre DamePurdue0.52.30.8
ClemsonGeorgia Tech26.727.129.6
Washington St.USC-12.8-11.7-14.6
FloridaAlabama-13.3-10.1-13.9
Wake ForestFlorida St.8.77.18.4
IowaKent St.26.423.929.4
Louisiana TechSMU-4.5-4.9-7.0
Ohio St.Tulsa23.423.425.6
KansasBaylor-15.1-17.4-19.6
ToledoColorado St.16.516.315.3
DukeNorthwestern-11.6-10.3-12.5
ArkansasGeorgia Southern30.029.229.1
MemphisMississippi St.-13.7-13.3-11.4
WashingtonArkansas St.17.517.820.1
UTSAMiddle Tennessee14.114.912.3
LibertyOld Dominion35.636.337.6
MarshallEast Carolina5.06.04.4
Southern Miss.Troy-10.5-9.1-10.2
Texas TechFlorida Int’l.26.226.223.4
Georgia St.Charlotte14.212.312.0
San Diego St.Utah-6.1-6.7-6.5
GeorgiaSouth Carolina29.029.231.7
Penn St.Auburn-0.91.41.7
Air ForceUtah St.10.39.011.1
North CarolinaVirginia14.812.817.8
LSUCentral Michigan12.514.914.8
North TexasUAB-8.8-8.7-8.9
VanderbiltStanford-14.2-16.1-14.9
TexasRice33.231.332.0
Ole MissTulane14.315.612.6
Boise St.Oklahoma St.-2.7-2.8-0.9
BYUArizona St.2.10.62.1
UNLVIowa St.-32.7-32.2-33.9
UCLAFresno St.18.116.215.8
HawaiiSan Jose St.-3.5-4.3-2.2

This week’s FBS vs. FCS Games

FBSFCSPiRate
KentuckyChattanooga30.2
MissouriSE Missouri29.4
TennesseeTennessee Tech30.7
SyracuseAlbany21.5
RutgersDelaware23.5
Miami (O)Long Island25.5
AkronBryant9.2
Appalachian St.Elon27.7
Oregon St.Idaho21.2
CaliforniaSacramento St.22.3
Bowling GreenMurray St.5.2
Florida AtlanticFordham27.4
HoustonGrambling28.8
South FloridaFlorida A&M15.5
Texas St.Incarnate Word13.5
OregonStony Brook32.4
North Carolina St.Furman27.1
Louisiana-MonroeJackson St.11.6
South AlabamaAlcorn St.23.3
New Mexico St.South Carolina St.1.5
ArizonaNorthern Arizona16.3

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

RankTeamRating
1Alabama132.3
2Georgia128.5
3Oklahoma126.4
4Clemson121.7
5Iowa St.120.6
6Ohio St.119.5
7Cincinnati119.2
8Auburn118.2
9Texas A&M117.8
10North Carolina117.7
11Iowa117.6
12Florida116.8
13Penn St.116.0
14U S C115.7
15Wisconsin114.7
16T C U114.4
17Ole Miss114.0
18Texas114.0
19Oregon113.5
20Miami (Fla.)113.4
21U C L A113.0
22West Virginia112.9
23Indiana112.4
24Arkansas112.3
25Arizona St.111.7
26L S U111.4
27Utah110.5
28BYU110.3
29Maryland109.6
30Oklahoma St.109.5
31Coastal Carolina109.1
32Michigan108.6
33Purdue108.6
34Notre Dame108.3
35NC State108.1
36Kentucky108.0
37Mississippi St.108.0
38Louisiana106.9
39Virginia Tech106.9
40Wake Forest106.8
41Liberty106.8
42Oregon St.106.3
43Missouri106.2
44Colorado106.2
45Michigan St.106.1
46Minnesota106.0
47Washington105.6
48Virginia105.6
49Kansas St.105.4
50Nebraska105.3
51Stanford105.1
52Baylor104.9
53Boston College104.8
54Boise St.104.3
55UCF104.0
56Pittsburgh103.3
57Texas Tech102.9
58Tulane102.9
59Appalachian St.102.8
60Northwestern102.5
61Tennessee102.4
62Army102.1
63Louisville101.7
64South Carolina101.5
65Florida St.101.3
66Houston101.2
67San Diego St.101.1
68Nevada100.6
69Rutgers100.4
70San Jose St.100.4
71Central Michigan100.4
72Washington St.99.6
73California99.6
74Fresno St.99.3
75Tulsa98.4
76Toledo98.3
77Miami (Ohio)97.9
78Buffalo97.6
79Wyoming97.4
80SMU97.2
81Air Force97.0
82U T S A96.9
83Georgia Tech96.8
84Marshall96.7
85Troy95.4
86Ball St.95.3
87Syracuse94.9
88East Carolina94.6
89Illinois94.5
90U A B94.2
91Kent St.94.0
92Memphis93.7
93Hawaii93.1
94Florida Atlantic92.5
95Arizona92.2
96Georgia St.91.7
97South Alabama91.4
98Eastern Michigan91.0
99Arkansas St.90.1
100Utah St.89.8
101Western Michigan89.7
102Northern Illinois88.9
103Louisiana Tech88.7
104Duke88.5
105Ohio88.3
106USF88.2
107Texas St.87.8
108Vanderbilt87.0
109Western Kentucky86.2
110Middle Tennessee86.1
111Georgia Southern85.9
112Colorado St.85.3
113Rice84.8
114New Mexico84.8
115U N L V84.7
116Navy84.6
117Kansas84.5
118Southern Miss.83.4
119North Texas82.4
120Charlotte80.9
121Florida Int’l.80.6
122Temple80.4
123U T E P76.6
124UL-Monroe75.6
125Akron75.2
126UMass72.8
127Bowling Green72.4
128Old Dominion72.3
129New Mexico St.69.4
130Connecticut67.7

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Cincinnati119.0118.0120.6119.2
UCF103.6102.5105.9104.0
Tulane102.7101.4104.5102.9
Houston101.6100.2101.9101.2
Tulsa98.498.698.198.4
SMU96.597.597.697.2
East Carolina94.693.795.494.6
Memphis92.993.594.793.7
USF88.687.788.388.2
Navy85.184.384.584.6
Temple79.681.180.480.4

AAC Averages96.696.297.496.8

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Clemson120.6121.0123.3121.7
NC State108.6107.8108.0108.1
Wake Forest107.2106.0107.3106.8
Boston College104.5104.9104.9104.8
Louisville101.4101.0102.6101.7
Florida St.101.0101.4101.4101.3
Syracuse95.495.294.294.9

Coastal Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
North Carolina116.7116.8119.7117.7
Miami (Fla.)113.8112.5114.1113.4
Virginia Tech107.8106.4106.4106.9
Virginia104.9106.9104.9105.6
Pittsburgh102.9103.9103.3103.3
Georgia Tech96.996.996.796.8
Duke88.589.887.388.5

ACC Averages105.0105.0105.3105.1

Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oklahoma127.6125.0126.5126.4
Iowa St.121.1119.3121.4120.6
T C U114.9113.6114.6114.4
Texas115.0113.0113.9114.0
West Virginia114.5112.6111.6112.9
Oklahoma St.110.0109.6108.8109.5
Kansas St.105.8105.8104.7105.4
Baylor105.5105.1104.1104.9
Texas Tech102.9103.7102.1102.9
Kansas87.384.781.684.5

Big 12 Averages110.5109.2108.9109.5

Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.118.8119.0120.8119.5
Penn St.114.7115.8117.4116.0
Indiana112.0111.9113.3112.4
Maryland111.0109.3108.3109.6
Michigan107.8108.9109.2108.6
Michigan St.106.5106.1105.8106.1
Rutgers99.4101.6100.2100.4

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Iowa117.0116.5119.4117.6
Wisconsin114.1114.0116.0114.7
Purdue108.4107.8109.6108.6
Minnesota104.9106.0107.3106.0
Nebraska105.0105.5105.5105.3
Northwestern102.6102.5102.3102.5
Illinois94.294.694.794.5

Big Ten Averages108.3108.6109.3108.7

Conference USA
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Marshall96.796.796.996.7
Florida Atlantic91.493.392.792.5
Western Kentucky85.287.086.486.2
Middle Tennessee85.785.587.186.1
Charlotte80.181.181.580.9
Florida Int’l.79.780.581.780.6
Old Dominion72.072.672.272.3

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
U T S A96.897.496.596.9
U A B94.594.293.994.2
Louisiana Tech89.089.687.688.7
Rice84.884.784.984.8
Southern Miss.82.684.283.483.4
North Texas82.782.482.082.4
U T E P77.077.775.176.6

CUSA Averages85.686.285.985.9

FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
BYU110.2109.5111.1110.3
Notre Dame107.4108.6108.9108.3
Liberty105.6106.9107.8106.8
Army102.0102.0102.3102.1
UMass74.273.670.672.8
New Mexico St.69.870.667.869.4
Connecticut68.369.565.467.7

Indep. Averages91.191.590.691.1

Mid-American Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Miami (Ohio)99.797.496.697.9
Buffalo98.297.297.497.6
Kent St.93.695.593.094.0
Ohio87.289.188.588.3
Akron77.075.073.675.2
Bowling Green73.073.470.972.4

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Central Michigan101.199.8100.2100.4
Toledo98.898.497.798.3
Ball St.96.296.193.695.3
Eastern Michigan92.790.989.591.0
Western Michigan90.090.388.889.7
Northern Illinois90.488.587.988.9

MAC Averages91.591.089.890.8

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Boise St.104.3103.8104.8104.3
Wyoming96.797.398.397.4
Air Force96.896.797.497.0
Utah St.89.590.689.389.8
Colorado St.85.385.185.485.3
New Mexico85.085.384.084.8

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
San Diego St.101.5100.9100.9101.1
Nevada99.9101.5100.3100.6
San Jose St.100.9101.099.4100.4
Fresno St.97.699.7100.699.3
Hawaii93.492.793.193.1
U N L V85.584.284.684.7

MWC Averages94.794.994.894.8

Pac-12 Conference
North Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oregon112.1113.4115.0113.5
Oregon St.106.2106.1106.5106.3
Washington104.6105.9106.3105.6
Stanford104.8105.9104.6105.1
Washington St.99.5100.399.199.6
California97.2101.5100.199.6

South Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
U S C115.2115.0116.7115.7
U C L A112.7112.9113.3113.0
Arizona St.111.1112.0112.0111.7
Utah110.6110.6110.4110.5
Colorado106.7106.3105.6106.2
Arizona92.892.091.892.2

Pac-12 Averages106.1106.8106.8106.6

Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Georgia127.9127.9129.9128.5
Florida116.0117.9116.6116.8
Kentucky107.4109.2107.5108.0
Missouri106.1106.8105.8106.2
Tennessee102.6101.9102.6102.4
South Carolina101.9101.6101.2101.5
Vanderbilt87.686.886.787.0

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Alabama132.4131.0133.5132.3
Auburn118.6117.4118.7118.2
Texas A&M117.3118.2117.9117.8
Ole Miss113.9114.0114.1114.0
Arkansas112.8112.5111.5112.3
L S U110.5111.7112.0111.4
Mississippi St.108.1108.3107.5108.0

SEC Averages111.7111.8111.8111.8

Sunbelt Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Coastal Carolina109.8107.1110.3109.1
Appalachian St.102.2101.9104.4102.8
Troy95.195.495.795.4
Georgia St.92.391.491.591.7
Georgia Southern85.986.485.485.9

TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Louisiana107.6105.3107.9106.9
South Alabama91.791.890.791.4
Arkansas St.90.191.189.290.1
Texas St.89.186.987.487.8
UL-Monroe76.276.573.975.6

Sun Averages94.093.493.693.7

Conference Ratings

RankConferenceRating
1Southeastern111.8
2Big 12109.5
3Big Ten108.7
4Pac-12106.6
5Atlantic Coast105.1
6American Athletic96.8
7Mountain West94.8
8Sun Belt93.7
9Independents91.1
10Mid-American90.8
11Conference USA85.9

Saturday’s TV Games of Interest

All Times Eastern Daylight

12:00 Noon

Indiana vs. Cincinnati: The Bearcats could pick up some much needed schedule strength with a road win against the Hoosiers, although Indiana’s big loss to Iowa may not make a CU win all that influential to the Selection Committee down the road. As of this publication, it has not been decided if this will be the ABC or ESPN game.

Buffalo vs. Coastal Carolina: Why do we call this important? Coastal Carolina has a chance to run the table for a second consecutive regular season, and this figures to possibly be their second toughest game on their schedule. If the Chanticleers win this one on the road, then possible a road game against Appalachian State on October 20 will be all that stands in CCU’s way of going 12-0 and competing for a NY6 Bowl. This game will be on ESPN2 or ESPNU.

Oklahoma vs. Nebraska: We don’t expect an exciting game in this one, but it marks a very important 50th anniversary. On Thanksgiving Day of 1971, the number one Cornhuskers visited Norman to face the number two Sooners in the “Game of the Century.” We believe it was the game of the second half of the century, as the 1946 Army-Notre Dame game at Yankee Stadium was just as big.

On that great day 50 years ago, the lead changed hands three times with Nebraska tailback Jeff Kinney diving into the end zone late in the fourth quarter to give the ‘Huskers the 35-31 win. Oklahoma went on to the Sugar Bowl and destroyed a 9-1 Auburn team that had Heisman Trophy winner Pat Sullivan at quarterback. The final score was 40-22, but it was 40-6 before Coach Chuck Fairbanks emptied his bench.

Nebraska met undefeated Alabama in the Orange Bowl for the national title. The game was a blowout by halftime, as Nebraska cruised to a 38-6 win. Nebraska finished first in the polls, and Oklahoma finished #2. Colorado, which only lost to Nebraska and Oklahoma edged Alabama for #3, while the Tide fell to #4. This was the only time in history that the #1 team beat the #’s 2, 3, and 4 teams in a season.

As for this year’s game, Oklahoma should win by a lopsided score, but maybe Nebraska will play its best game under Coach Scott Frost and make it interesting. Catch this game on Fox.

West Virginia vs. Virginia Tech: The Hokies look strong enough defensively to compete with all their ACC brethren, while West Virginia is a work in progress under second year coach Neal Brown. The Mountaineers are a different team at Mountaineer Field than they are on the road. This should be a stern test for Justin Fuente’s squad. This one airs on FS1.

3:30 PM

Florida vs. Alabama: Florida might have a bit of a quarterback controversy between starter Emory Jones and exciting backup Anthony Richardson. Jones tossed two interceptions against South Florida’s defense. Richardson ran for 115 yards and a touchdown on just four carries, and he was three for three for 152 yards and two touchdowns through the air.

Alabama has no controversies. The Tide look unstoppable with what should be a rebuilding year. Can they manhandle the Gators in Gainesville? A 20+ – point win looks highly possible. This game is CBS’s first SEC game of the season.

7:30 PM

Penn St. vs. Auburn: This is Bryan Harsin’s first test as Auburn’s head coach. Penn State is not all the way back as a power, but playing them at Happy Valley is quite difficult. Expect a potentially lower scoring game, but it should be highly competitive and worth watching. It’s the ABC prime time game.

10:15 PM

BYU vs. Arizona St.: After dominating Utah Saturday night, this BYU team looks just as tough or even tougher in 2021 than it looked in 2020 with an All-American quarterback now starting for the New York Jets. Meanwhile, Arizona State has quietly started 2-0 with two creampuffs.

The Sun Devils have withstood some major accusations with potential illegal recruiting, so bad, that an insider has claimed that an incredible tell-all book about the transgressions would be a bestseller.

This figures to be ASU’s last chance for multiple seasons to make hay before their sun sets with numerous punishments, that is if the NCAA has any investigators remaining. This game airs on ESPN.

10:45 PM

UCLA vs. Fresno St.: After Saturday’s Oregon win at Ohio State, Fresno State’s close loss to the Ducks on September 4 looked a lot more impressive. The Bulldogs won’t be intimidated by the 2-0 Bruins, coming off a big win over LSU plus a week off.

UCLA didn’t need the week off after beating LSU at the Rose Bowl, but the Bruins won’t be hurt by the bye week. This should be an action-packed and exciting game, and Fresno State could still be there in the fourth quarter with a chance to win. Catch this game on the Pac-12 Network.

Wide Variety In Styles This Year

The up-tempo offenses of the recent decade have some new company with teams going the other way. The hurry-up no huddle teams are still to be found in great numbers. However, some coaches are killing the clock trying to play ball-control and taking all the time off the play clock between plays.

Here’s an exceptional case in point to show the extremes from yesterday. Central Michigan played ball-control yesterday against FCS opponent Robert Morris. They gave RMU just 38 scrimmage plays (30 runs and 8 passes). The total of 119 plays looked like a game from the 1950s. In Madison, WI, Eastern Michigan was also held to 38 plays and 92 total yards against the Badgers in a game that had just 113 total plays. Several additional games were limited to less than 130 scrimmage plays, something that has been a rarity in recent seasons. Troy and Liberty combined for just 114 scrimmage plays.

At the other extreme, Marshall did something rarely done in college football history. They ran 100 plays in their win over UNC Central. They gained 700 yards. Arkansas State just missed 100 with 99 plays; they scored 50 points against Memphis, and they lost! North Texas had 96 plays against SMU and scored just 12 points.

September 10, 2021

Introducing The PiRate Football Game

The PiRate Ratings have created a new pro football tabletop strategy game, called PiRate Football. You can purchase the game at the following link.

Our first set of teams in this new game is our salute to the venerable American Football League. Ten great franchises made the AFL exciting, entertaining, wide-open, and star-studded.

The teams you will get in this game are:

1961 Houston Oilers

1963 San Diego Chargers

1964 Buffalo Bills

1964 Boston Patriots

1966 Kansas City Chiefs

1967 Oakland Raiders

1968 New York Jets

1972 Miami Dolphins

1973 Cincinnati Bengals

1977 Denver Broncos

This new game comes with 26 offensive and 14 defensive plays, expanded special teams options, a unique way to play this as a solitaire game, and everything you need to play a football game other than the dice you need to supply plus a pencil to keep stats.

100% of all the proceeds of our games, Sabertooth Baseball and PiRate Football, go to local charity with no administrative costs or other junk. We just give the money to our selected charity. We specialize in helping elderly on fixed incomes. We have recently purchased and had installed a hot water heater for two 80+ year old sisters thanks to proceeds from the Sabertooth Baseball Game. Our goal is to supply a washer and dryer to an elderly couple who had a 15+ year old washer and 20+ year old dryer quit working in 2020.

Our gratitude goes to all that purchased the two baseball sets this Spring and Summer. Please help us this Autumn to make the Winter Holidays really happy for a paid of 80-somethings.

September 8, 2021

PiRate Picks For September 9-13, 2021

Last week’s opening picks missed, as Virginia Tech made Sam Howell look like Thurston Howell. Duke then failed to show up against Charlotte, and poof, our two picks were destroyed. Such is life when you wager on parlays that return the odds we look for when we place our imaginary wagers.

We have two more picks returning some fat odds this week, and maybe we’ll get lucky and hit on one. We will also tell you a week 1 tip for the NFL. Although we are here just for Money Line Parlays this year, it doesn’t mean we cannot give out a little interesting information.

Here are our two Money Line Parlays for Week two of the college season. We will eventually pick some NFL games, but Week one is not the time and place for that.

Parlay 1

Odds:+224
Must WinOpponent
VirginiaIllinois
RutgersSyracuse
MichiganWashington

Parlay 2

Odds:+180.56
Must WinOpponent
Mississippi St.North Carolina St.
TCUCalifornia

Here’s our tip for Week 1 of the NFL season. Underdogs of 1 to 3 points tend to win outright 50% of the time, but they also lose by less than 3 points another 8-10% of the time. That’s 58-60% success for wagering on 3-point Underdogs.

There are seven games as of this writing with a 3-point spread. The Dogs are:

Houston against Jacksonville

Arizona against Tennessee

Philadelphia against Atlanta

Indianapolis against Seattle

Cincinnati against Minnesota

Miami against New England

N.Y. Giants against Denver

September 7, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Football, September 7, 2021

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:20 am

This Week’s Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
Coastal CarolinaKansas25.325.031.4
Boise St.UTEP28.626.830.8
VirginiaIllinois10.311.99.3
ArmyWestern Kentucky23.521.522.8
Ohio St.Oregon14.413.313.6
MassachusettsBoston College-31.1-32.5-36.3
South FloridaFlorida-25.7-29.3-27.2
TennesseePittsburgh5.33.55.3
East CarolinaSouth Carolina-5.7-6.8-4.2
Florida AtlanticGeorgia Southern-0.11.61.7
MinnesotaMiami (O)8.612.815.3
Oklahoma St.Tulsa16.015.615.4
Northern IllinoisWyoming-2.8-5.7-7.4
SyracuseRutgers0.0-2.6-1.7
Virginia TechMiddle Tennessee25.624.823.0
New MexicoNew Mexico St.18.418.120.2
Notre DameToledo13.916.317.7
ConnecticutPurdue-29.1-27.4-33.2
NavyAir Force-5.8-6.5-6.8
Penn St.Ball St.19.120.425.0
AkronTemple6.12.21.4
GeorgiaUAB31.331.433.6
TCUCalifornia24.618.621.4
NebraskaBuffalo6.27.87.1
Iowa St.Iowa8.16.96.0
Colorado (d)Texas A&M-9.7-11.5-12.2
Bowling GreenSouth Alabama-18.6-18.5-20.5
RiceHouston-10.5-8.8-10.3
Miami (Fla.)Appalachian St.16.816.115.2
Florida Int’l.Texas St.-7.9-4.5-3.8
Mississippi St.North Carolina St.1.01.80.6
WisconsinEastern Michigan24.125.929.3
SMUNorth Texas13.915.415.6
TroyLiberty-7.7-8.7-9.4
Arkansas St.Memphis-0.40.4-3.3
ArkansasTexas-5.2-3.3-6.0
KentuckyMissouri3.95.23.9
North CarolinaGeorgia St.24.425.328.4
MichiganWashington2.31.71.5
Colorado St.Vanderbilt1.52.63.4
ArizonaSan Diego St.-1.0-1.0-1.0
BYUUtah-0.8-2.1-0.1
Arizona St.UNLV28.931.531.3
USCStanford20.919.623.3
Oregon St.Hawaii15.215.815.7
(d) CU-A&M gameplayed in Denver

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

RankTeamRating
1Alabama132.7
2Georgia125.8
3Oklahoma125.4
4Iowa St.122.1
5Ohio St.121.9
6Clemson121.6
7U S C119.8
8Cincinnati119.2
9Texas A&M118.3
10Auburn117.8
11Florida117.1
12Texas117.0
13Iowa116.6
14North Carolina116.3
15T C U116.0
16Miami (Fla.)114.9
17Penn St.114.9
18Wisconsin114.6
19Ole Miss113.8
20U C L A113.0
21Arizona St.112.1
22Indiana112.1
23Utah111.9
24L S U111.6
25West Virginia111.4
26Oklahoma St.111.3
27Oregon111.1
28Notre Dame109.9
29Arkansas109.2
30NC State109.1
31Coastal Carolina108.9
32BYU108.9
33Maryland108.4
34Louisiana108.1
35Washington108.1
36Kentucky107.8
37Wake Forest107.3
38Mississippi St.107.3
39Virginia Tech107.2
40Michigan106.9
41Minnesota106.6
42Liberty106.5
43Missouri106.5
44Boston College106.4
45Michigan St.106.0
46Oregon St.106.0
47Kansas St.105.8
48Colorado105.7
49Purdue104.6
50Baylor104.1
51Texas Tech104.0
52Army103.8
53Florida St.103.8
54Tennessee103.7
55Virginia103.7
56Boise St.103.5
57UCF103.5
58Nebraska103.5
59Northwestern102.8
60Tulane102.2
61South Carolina102.0
62Pittsburgh102.0
63Appalachian St.101.9
64Louisville101.6
65Stanford101.5
66San Jose St.100.4
67Nevada100.1
68Central Michigan99.7
69Rutgers99.6
70Washington St.99.6
71Buffalo99.5
72San Diego St.98.9
73Houston98.6
74Fresno St.98.1
75California97.4
76Miami (Ohio)97.4
77Wyoming97.3
78Tulsa97.1
79Toledo97.0
80Marshall96.7
81U A B96.7
82Georgia Tech96.6
83SMU96.5
84Ball St.96.4
85Illinois96.2
86U T S A95.9
87Air Force95.7
88Syracuse95.7
89Troy95.4
90Arizona94.9
91East Carolina94.4
92Memphis93.5
93Hawaii93.4
94Georgia St.93.2
95South Alabama92.8
96Kent St.91.5
97Eastern Michigan91.2
98Ohio90.8
99Arkansas St.90.4
100Georgia Southern90.2
101Northern Illinois89.0
102Western Michigan89.0
103Louisiana Tech89.0
104Utah St.89.0
105Florida Atlantic88.8
106Duke88.3
107Texas St.88.2
108Rice87.7
109USF87.7
110Vanderbilt86.6
111Navy86.3
112Colorado St.86.2
113Middle Tennessee85.7
114New Mexico85.5
115Kansas84.7
116U N L V84.6
117Western Kentucky84.2
118North Texas83.0
119Southern Miss.82.8
120Charlotte80.7
121Florida Int’l.80.3
122Akron78.5
123U T E P77.8
124Temple77.3
125UL-Monroe75.6
126Connecticut72.7
127Old Dominion71.8
128UMass71.6
129Bowling Green71.1
130New Mexico St.68.6

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Cincinnati119.0118.0120.6119.2
UCF103.1102.0105.4103.5
Tulane102.0100.7103.8102.2
Houston99.197.599.298.6
Tulsa97.297.396.797.1
SMU95.896.996.996.5
East Carolina94.593.495.394.4
Memphis92.793.194.693.5
USF88.387.087.787.7
Navy86.886.086.386.3
Temple76.478.177.477.3

AAC Averages95.995.596.796.0


Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Clemson120.5120.9123.2121.6
NC State109.5108.8109.1109.1
Wake Forest107.7106.5107.8107.3
Boston College105.9106.5106.9106.4
Florida St.103.5103.9103.9103.8
Louisville101.3100.9102.5101.6
Syracuse96.295.995.195.7

Coastal Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
North Carolina115.2115.3118.3116.3
Miami (Fla.)115.2114.0115.6114.9
Virginia Tech108.1106.8106.8107.2
Virginia103.1105.1102.8103.7
Pittsburgh101.6102.7101.8102.0
Georgia Tech96.796.796.596.6
Duke88.389.687.188.3

ACC Averages105.2105.3105.5105.3


Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oklahoma126.6124.0125.5125.4
Iowa St.122.6120.8122.9122.1
Texas118.0115.9117.2117.0
T C U116.6115.1116.3116.0
West Virginia113.0111.1110.1111.4
Oklahoma St.111.7111.4110.7111.3
Kansas St.106.2106.2105.1105.8
Baylor104.7104.3103.3104.1
Texas Tech104.0104.8103.2104.0
Kansas87.484.981.884.7

Big 12 Averages111.1109.8109.6110.2


Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.121.1121.3123.2121.9
Penn St.113.5114.6116.5114.9
Indiana111.7111.6113.0112.1
Maryland109.8108.1107.1108.4
Michigan106.2107.1107.3106.9
Michigan St.106.4106.0105.7106.0
Rutgers98.6100.999.399.6

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Iowa116.0115.5118.4116.6
Wisconsin113.9113.9115.9114.6
Minnesota105.1106.6108.1106.6
Purdue104.4103.8105.6104.6
Nebraska103.2103.7103.5103.5
Northwestern102.9102.8102.6102.8
Illinois95.896.296.696.2

Big Ten Averages107.8108.0108.8108.2


Conference USA
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Marshall96.796.796.996.7
Florida Atlantic87.789.789.088.8
Middle Tennessee85.485.186.785.7
Western Kentucky83.285.184.384.2
Charlotte79.980.981.380.7
Florida Int’l.79.280.281.480.3
Old Dominion71.572.171.771.8

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
U A B96.996.796.496.7
U T S A95.896.495.595.9
Louisiana Tech89.389.987.989.0
Rice87.687.787.987.7
North Texas83.483.082.783.0
Southern Miss.82.083.682.882.8
U T E P78.079.076.277.8

CUSA Averages85.586.185.885.8


FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Notre Dame108.7110.3110.8109.9
BYU109.0108.0109.7108.9
Liberty105.3106.6107.5106.5
Army103.7103.6104.1103.8
Connecticut73.374.570.472.7
UMass73.372.569.171.6
New Mexico St.69.269.966.868.6

Indep. Averages91.892.291.291.7


Mid-American Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Buffalo100.099.099.499.5
Miami (Ohio)99.596.895.897.4
Kent St.91.193.090.591.5
Ohio89.791.691.090.8
Akron80.578.376.978.5
Bowling Green71.872.169.371.1

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Central Michigan100.499.199.599.7
Toledo97.897.096.197.0
Ball St.97.497.394.596.4
Eastern Michigan92.991.089.691.2
Northern Illinois90.688.687.989.0
Western Michigan89.389.688.189.0

MAC Averages91.791.189.990.9


Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Boise St.103.6102.8104.0103.5
Wyoming96.597.298.397.3
Air Force95.695.596.195.7
Utah St.88.789.888.589.0
Colorado St.86.086.086.586.2
New Mexico85.686.085.085.5

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
San Jose St.100.9101.099.4100.4
Nevada99.4101.099.8100.1
San Diego St.99.498.798.698.9
Fresno St.96.498.599.498.1
Hawaii93.793.093.493.4
U N L V85.584.084.384.6

MWC Averages94.394.594.494.4


Pac-12 Conference
North Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oregon109.8111.1112.6111.1
Washington106.9108.4108.9108.1
Oregon St.105.9105.8106.2106.0
Stanford101.3102.4100.8101.5
Washington St.99.5100.399.199.6
California95.099.597.997.4

South Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
U S C119.2119.0121.0119.8
U C L A112.7112.9113.3113.0
Arizona St.111.4112.5112.6112.1
Utah111.8112.1111.8111.9
Colorado106.4105.8104.9105.7
Arizona95.494.794.694.9

Pac-12 Averages106.3107.0107.0106.8


Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Georgia125.2125.1127.1125.8
Florida116.0118.3116.9117.1
Kentucky107.2109.1107.1107.8
Missouri106.3106.9106.2106.5
Tennessee103.9103.1104.1103.7
South Carolina102.3102.2101.6102.0
Vanderbilt87.486.486.186.6

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Alabama132.8131.4133.9132.7
Texas A&M117.6118.7118.6118.3
Auburn118.2117.0118.3117.8
Ole Miss113.7113.8113.9113.8
L S U110.7111.9112.2111.6
Arkansas109.8109.6108.2109.2
Mississippi St.107.5107.6106.7107.3

SEC Averages111.3111.5111.5111.5


Sunbelt Conference
East DivisionPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Coastal Carolina109.7106.9110.1108.9
Appalachian St.101.3100.9103.4101.9
Troy95.195.495.795.4
Georgia St.93.892.992.993.2
Georgia Southern90.390.789.890.2

West DivisionPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Louisiana108.8106.5109.1108.1
South Alabama92.993.192.392.8
Arkansas St.90.391.589.390.4
Texas St.89.687.287.788.2
UL-Monroe76.276.573.975.6

Sun Averages94.894.294.494.5

Rating of Conferences

RankConferenceRating
1Southeastern111.5
2Big 12110.2
3Big Ten108.2
4Pac-12106.8
5Atlantic Coast105.3
6American Athletic96.0
7Sun Belt94.5
8Mountain West94.4
9Independents91.7
10Mid-American90.9
11Conference USA85.8

What To Make Of Week 1

Alabama Football 2021 = UCLA Basketball 1967-1973

College basketball between 1967 and 1973 was all about one team against the rest. UCLA so dominated basketball in those years that their games were seldom entertaining to non-Bruins fans. They won games by scores such as 115-65, 114-56, and 82-43. They beat other top 10 teams by scores like 79-53, 73-57, and 96-77. In the rare occasion that they played the #1 team, when they were not ranked #1, they merely won 101-69 after leading by 44 points before putting in the scrubs.

Alabama football has reached that same point. Games are no longer entertaining unless you are a Crimson Tide fan. Coach Nick Saban has reached the same level as John Wooden. Last year, Alabama played a 10-game all SEC schedule plus two playoff games. Six of the 13 opponents were ranked, and ‘Bama won these six gamed by an average of three touchdowns per game. The Tide suffered heavy losses to the NFL Draft, including the Heisman Trophy winner and a 1st round picked quarterback. For any other program, 2021 would be a large rebuilding season. For Alabama, they simply plug in the next 1st round draft pick at QB, who after one career start is now the front-runner for this year’s Heisman Trophy. It’s just like Sidney Wicks replacing Kareem Abdul-Jabbar as the best player in the nation in 1969-70, and Bill Walton replacing Wicks in 1971-72.

Revenge Of The FCS

Six FCS teams beat FBS teams in Week One of the college football season. While South Dakota State beating Colorado State may not have been all that surprising, since SDSU is the Alabama of FCS, but when Washington lost at home to Montana, that shook the Power 5 Pac-12 to its foundation.

There are two reasons why these FCS teams were more competitive than normal. First, these FCS teams played football in the Spring. Most of these teams looked like they were in mid-season form, playing more like a Power 5 team in a postseason bowl. Also, with the free extra year given to all players by the NCAA, age tends to lead to parity. An outstanding 5-star 18-year old is light years better than a 3-star 18-year old. A 23-year old college football player most likely is a 3-star holdover, and he is little better than a 23-year old 2-star player at an FCS school.

An excellent case in point is the East Tennessee State slaughter over Vanderbilt. Everything possible was in place to forecast this 20-point blowout win over the SEC host. The Buccaneers played in the Spring and enjoyed an incredible year on the defensive side of the ball. Most of their two-deep returned. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt brought in a new coaching staff after the Commodores went 0-9 and had to use a female soccer player as their placekicker in their final two games. Numerous players left the team via the Transfer Portal, and the incoming coach made it known that he preferred not to sign players from that portal. The Commodores are a very youthful team lacking any real star players, while ETSU had one player in his late 20’s playing Saturday night. Thus, not only was the game an upset that finished 41 points different from the spread, it was obvious that ETSU dominated the Commodores. In some respect, men beat boys.

With all FBS teams now having a game under their belts, expect some of this FCS advantage to disappear each week until it is gone.

Must Watch Games This Week

12 Noon Eastern

Oregon visits the giant horseshoe to face Ohio State on Fox. The Ducks underperformed in a win over Fresno State, but it was obvious that they didn’t show the nation all their weapons. The Pac-12 suffered numerous black eyes, with the rest of the North Division losing their first games.

3:30 PM Eastern

Saturday is the 20th anniversary of the tragic bombings in New York and Washington, D.C. It is no coincidence that Air Force and Navy will play on CBS rather than their regular SEC game.

On ABC, Iowa visits Iowa State for the Cy-Hawk Trophy. The Cyclones were not impressive in their opener against Northern Iowa, but last year, Iowa State lost to Louisiana-Lafayette by 17 in their first game and then beat Oklahoma two weeks later. Iowa looked like the class of the Big Ten West when they trounced Indiana.

7:00 PM Eastern

Perhaps the game of the day comes from Fayetteville, Arkansas, where the Razorbacks will host long-time arch-rival Texas in a game that will soon become a regular affair once Texas joins the SEC (maybe in 2022). Neither team is the dominant top 10 team like they were many times in the 1960’s and 1970’s, but this should be an incredibly, hard-fought game between two 1-0 teams. Catch this game on ESPN.

Mississippi State hosts North Carolina State, and the ACC is suffering more than the Pac-12 after one week. The Wolfpack were one of two bright spots for the ACC, while the Bulldogs had to win on the final play over Louisiana Tech. This should be a close game, and the teams will fight tooth and nail to get to 2-0. This one is on ESPN2.

7:30 PM Eastern

Missouri visits Kentucky in a battle to determine which SEC East team will become the potential top challenger to Georgia, assuming Florida does not retain this position. Missouri had a pedestrian performance in a win over Central Michigan in week one. On the other hand, Kentucky unveiled a new offense led by former Rams’ assistant Laim Coen. Coen’s offense made Penn State transfer Will Levis look like Jared Goff of 2018. Can the Cats put up flashy numbers against an SEC opponent? Tune into this one on The SEC Network.

10:15 PM Eastern

The late games this week could be duds except for the Utah at BYU game in Provo. Aside from it being a rivalry game, both schools looked strong in week one wins. Catch this rivalry game on ESPN.

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