PiRate Ratings and Spreads For College Football–November 10-15, 2009

Can This Week Be As Wacky As Last Week?

 

It happens every year; it usually happens in November, so it shouldn’t have come as a surprise.  After two thirds of the college season was in the books, teams all of a sudden started acting inconsistently.  Teams that couldn’t catch a break started catching breaks.  Teams that caught all the breaks stopped catching them.

 

Teams that had been given up for dead showed a new life.  Teams that consistently did something that made themselves very predictable (to the wagering public) did something completely different.

 

Iowa’s loss was coming.  You cannot win games every week by pulling them out in the final minutes.  When quarterback Ricky Stanzi went down with an injury, there was going to be no last minute heroics this time.

 

All of a sudden, Ron Zook’s Illinois team looks like they were supposed to look like in August.  Stranger things have happened, but it isn’t impossible that they could finish 6-6 after starting 1-6.  It isn’t probable either, because the Illini still have to play Cincinnati and Fresno State outside the Big 10 as well as Northwestern this week to close out conference play.

 

The two really consistent teams are the two BCS bowl-crashing wannabes.  TCU and Boise State both look invincible at the moment.  Both have tricky games this week.  The Horned Frogs get a one-loss Utah team, while Boise has to worry with in-state rival and bowl eligible Idaho.

 

NCAA Top 25 For November 9, 2009
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Texas	136.5	9	0
2	Florida	132.9	9	0
3	Alabama	129.2	8	0
4	Oklahoma	127.5	5	4
5	T C U	123.8	9	0
6	Southern Cal	120.4	7	2
7	Boise St.	119.9	9	0
8	Oregon	119.7	7	2
9	Georgia Tech	118.9	9	1
10	Ohio St.	118.4	8	2
11	Va. Tech	118.0	6	3
12	Okla. St.	117.0	7	2
13	Nebraska	116.9	6	3
14	Penn St.	116.8	8	2
15	Miami (Fla.)	116.7	7	2
16	Cincinnati	115.5	9	0
17	Pittsburgh	115.5	8	1
18	Stanford	115.0	6	3
19	Iowa	114.6	9	1
20	Clemson	114.2	6	3
21	Ole Miss	114.1	6	3
22	Tennessee	113.9	5	4
23	L  S  U	113.6	7	2
24	Arkansas	113.5	5	4
25	California	112.6	6	3
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Clemson	4-2	6-3	114.2
Boston College	3-2	6-3	110.8
Florida State	2-4	4-5	108.2
Wake Forest	2-4	4-6	105.1
North Carolina State	1-4	4-5	103.3
Maryland	1-4	2-7	91.3
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Georgia Tech	6-1	9-1	118.9
Virginia Tech	3-2	6-3	118.0
Miami-FL	4-2	7-2	116.7
North Carolina	2-3	6-3	109.0
Duke	3-2	5-4	101.8
Virginia	2-3	3-6	94.7

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Cincinnati	5-0	9-0	115.5
Pittsburgh	5-0	8-1	115.5
South Florida	2-2	6-2	105.3
West Virginia	3-1	7-2	104.2
Connecticut	1-4	4-5	103.1
Rutgers	1-2	6-2	101.8
Syracuse	0-4	3-6	92.2
Louisville	0-4	3-6	92.1

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Ohio State	5-1	8-2	118.4
Penn State	4-2	8-2	116.8
Iowa	5-1	9-1	114.6
Wisconsin	4-2	7-2	105.1
Michigan State	3-3	5-5	103.9
Minnesota	3-4	5-5	97.9
Northwestern	3-3	6-4	97.7
Michigan	1-5	5-5	97.3
Purdue	3-3	4-6	97.0
Illinois	2-5	3-6	96.2
Indiana	1-5	4-6	91.4

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	3-2	6-3	116.9
Kansas	1-4	5-4	104.7
Missouri	1-4	5-4	102.8
Kansas State	4-2	6-4	100.4
Colorado	2-3	3-6	95.7
Iowa State	2-4	5-5	94.5
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Texas	6-0	9-0	136.5
Oklahoma	3-2	5-4	127.5
Oklahoma State	4-1	7-2	117.0
Texas Tech	3-2	6-3	112.3
Baylor	1-4	4-5	101.6
Texas A&M	2-3	5-4	99.1

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Southern Mississippi	3-2	5-4	100.7
East Carolina	4-1	5-4	99.8
Marshall	3-2	5-4	95.7
Central Florida	3-2	5-4	95.3
U A B	3-2	4-5	90.3
Memphis	1-4	2-7	83.7
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Houston	4-1	8-1	106.2
Tulsa	2-3	4-5	96.9
U T E P	2-3	3-6	90.1
S M U	4-1	5-4	90.0
Rice	0-5	0-9	76.7
Tulane	1-4	3-6	75.5

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		6-3	107.7
Navy		7-3	102.6
Army		3-6	82.2

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	5-0	7-2	99.2
Buffalo	1-4	3-6	91.7
Ohio U	4-1	6-3	90.1
Bowling Green	3-2	4-5	89.3
Kent St.	4-2	5-5	87.4
Akron	1-4	2-7	84.0
Miami (O)	1-5	1-9	79.2
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Michigan	5-0	7-2	106.7
Northern Illinois	4-1	6-3	96.9
Western Michigan	3-3	4-6	87.5
Toledo	2-3	4-5	86.7
Ball State	1-4	1-8	81.3
Eastern Michigan	0-5	0-9	76.2

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	5-0	9-0	123.8
B Y U	4-1	7-2	112.2
Utah	5-0	8-1	106.5
Air Force	4-2	6-4	100.0
Colo. State	0-6	3-7	88.5
UNLV	2-4	4-6	88.1
S. D. State	2-3	4-5	87.8
Wyoming	2-3	4-5	86.7
New Mexico	0-5	0-9	74.5

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Southern Cal	4-2	7-2	120.4
Oregon	5-1	7-2	119.7
Stanford	5-2	6-3	115.0
California	3-3	6-3	112.6
Arizona	4-1	6-2	111.9
Oregon St.	4-2	6-3	108.1
U C L A	1-5	4-5	103.5
Arizona St.	2-4	4-5	102.8
Washington	2-4	3-6	98.7
Wash. St.	0-6	1-8	75.8

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida	7-0	9-0	132.9
Tennessee	2-3	5-4	113.9
Georgia	3-3	5-4	109.2
South Carolina	3-4	6-4	106.7
Kentucky	1-4	5-4	102.9
Vanderbilt	0-6	2-8	93.2
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Alabama	6-0	9-0	129.2
Ole Miss	2-3	6-3	114.1
L S U	4-2	7-2	113.6
Arkansas	2-4	5-4	113.5
Auburn	3-3	7-3	105.3
Mississippi State	2-3	4-5	101.6

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Troy	6-0	7-2	99.1
Middle Tennessee	4-1	6-3	91.8
Louisiana-Monroe	4-1	5-4	90.6
Arkansas State	1-3	2-6	89.7
U. of Louisiana	3-2	5-4	83.8
Florida Atlantic	2-2	2-6	83.3
Florida International	2-4	2-7	82.8
North Texas	1-5	2-7	76.2
Western Kentucky	0-5	0-9	72.0

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	4-0	9-0	119.9
Nevada	5-0	6-3	103.9
Fresno State	5-1	6-3	102.4
Louisiana Tech	2-4	3-6	95.7
Utah State	1-4	2-7	91.2
Idaho	4-2	7-3	90.6
Hawaii	1-5	3-6	84.8
San Jose State	0-4	1-7	82.8
New Mexico State	1-3	3-6	71.8

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Tuesday, November 10		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
BUFFALO	Ohio U	4.3	28-24	-2
Wednesday, November 11		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
CENTRAL MICHIGAN	Toledo	23.0	40-17	19
Thursday, November 5		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Bowling Green	MIAMI (O)	7.6	31-23	7
NORTHERN ILLINOIS	Ball State	18.8	38-19	21
South Florida	RUTGERS	0.1	24-24 ot	0
Friday, November 6		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Temple	AKRON	12.5	27-14	9
CINCINNATI	West Virginia	14.3	35-21	14
Saturday, November 7		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Boston College	VIRGINIA	13.1	27-14	8
ILLINOIS	Northwestern	1.5	21-19	2
LOUISVILLE	Syracuse	2.9	20-17	5
OHIO STATE	Iowa	7.3	21-14	7
WISCONSIN	Michigan	10.8	41-30	14
PENN STATE	Indiana	28.9	41-12	21
Michigan State	PURDUE	3.9	31-27	2
Florida State	WAKE FOREST	0.1	20-20 ot	0
Clemson	NORTH CAROLINA ST.	7.9	31-23	12
Georgia Tech	DUKE	14.4	38-24	13
Kentucky	VANDERBILT	7.2	20-13	8
Texas	BAYLOR	32.2	45-13	23
Virginia Tech	MARYLAND	24.0	34-10	19
Western Michigan	EASTERN MICHIGAN	8.8	26-17	10
OLE MISS	Tennessee	3.2	27-24	2
B y u	NEW MEXICO	35.0	42-7	28
Nebraska	KANSAS	9.2	21-12	5
U  a  b	MEMPHIS	3.9	31-27	4
IOWA STATE	Colorado	1.8	26-24	7
U  c  l  a	WASHINGTON ST.	24.7	38-13	14
BOISE STATE	Idaho	32.3	45-13	25
S M U	U t e p	2.9	35-34	11
PITTSBURGH	Notre Dame	10.8	28-17	10
SOUTHERN CAL	Stanford	8.4	28-20	8
CALIFORNIA	Arizona	3.7	28-24	0
OREGON	Arizona State	20.4	34-14	20
KANSAS STATE	Missouri	0.6	24-23	2
OKLAHOMA	Texas A&M	31.4	38-7	14
UTAH STATE	San Jose St.	11.1	35-24	8
NEVADA	Fresno State	4.5	35-30	-1
RICE	Tulane	3.7	35-31	-1
AIR FORCE	U n l v	14.9	31-16	16
OREGON STATE	Washington	12.4	33-21	12
Florida	SOUTH CAROLINA	23.2	35-13	17
Alabama	MISSISSIPPI STATE	24.6	35-10	14
Southern Miss	MARSHALL	2.0	26-24	-2
Miami-Fl	NORTH CAROLINA	4.7	28-23	4
OKLAHOMA STATE	Texas Tech	7.7	40-32	4
T C U	Utah	20.3	30-10	16
GEORGIA	Auburn	6.9	31-24	2
Houston	CENTRAL FLORIDA	7.9	38-30	8
L S U	Louisiana Tech	20.6	31-10	22
SAN DIEGO STATE	Wyoming	4.3	24-20	4
HAWAII	New Mexico State	17.0	45-28	13
FLORIDA ATLANTIC	Arkansas St.	9.8	31-21	0
UL-MONROE	Western Ky	21.3	38-17	24
ARKANSAS	Troy	17.9	45-27	12
FLA. INT’L	North Texas	9.6	34-24	7
MIDDLE TENNESSEE	UL-Lafayette	11.0	35-24	12
Sunday, November 15		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
TULSA	East Carolina	0.1	27-27 ot	1

 

Bowl Projections

CAPS/Bold = Excepted Bid

Italics = at-large invitation

 

Bowl	Conference		Conference	Team	Team
New Mexico	MWC #4	vs.	WAC #3	San Diego St.	Nevada
St. Petersburg	Big East #6	vs.	C-USA #5	Middle Tennessee	Southern Miss
New Orleans	Sunbelt #1	vs.	C-USA #4	Troy	East Carolina
Las Vegas	MWC #1	vs.	Pac 10 #4 or 5	B Y U	Stanford
Poinsettia	MWC #2	vs.	Pac 10 #6	Utah	U C L A
Hawaii	WAC	vs.	C-USA	Fresno St.	Marshall
Little Caesar’s Pizza	Big 10 #7	vs.	MAC #1 or 2	Minnesota	Northern Illinois
Meineke Car Care	ACC #5-6-7	vs.	Big East #3	Boston Coll	Rutgers
Emerald	Pac 10 #4 or 5	vs.	ACC #5-6-7	Oregon State	Wake Forest
Music City	SEC #6 or 7	vs.	ACC #5-6-7	Georgia	North Carolina
Independence	SEC #8	vs.	Big 12 #7	South Carolina	Missouri
Eagle Bank	ACC #8	vs.	Army/C-USA	Ohio U	Central Florida
Champs Sports	ACC #4	vs.	Big 10 #5	Va. Tech	Northwestern
Humanitarian	WAC #1	vs.	MWC	Idaho	Bowling Green
Holiday	Big 12 #3	vs.	Pac 10 #2	Nebraska	Arizona
Armed Forces	C-USA #3	vs.	MWC #3	S M U	Air Force
Sun	Pac 10 #3	vs.	B E #2 or B12 #5	California	Oklahoma
Texas	Big 12 #8	vs.	Navy or C-USA	Texas A&M	NAVY
Insight.com	Big 12 #6	vs.	Big 10 #6	Kansas State	Michigan State
Chick-fil-A	SEC #5	vs.	ACC #2	Ole Miss	Miami-Fl
Outback	SEC #3 or 4	vs.	Big 10 #3	Tennessee	Penn State
Capital One	Big 10 #2	vs.	SEC #2	Iowa	L S U
Gator	B E #2 or B12 #5	vs.	ACC #3	Cincinnati	Ga. Tech
Rose	BCS Pac10	vs.	BCS Big 10	Oregon	Ohio State
Sugar	BCS SEC	vs.	BCS At-Large	Alabama	Boise State
International	Big East #5	vs.	MAC #3	West Va.	Temple
Cotton	Big 12 #2	vs.	SEC #3 or 4	Oklahoma State	Auburn
Papajohns.com	Big East #4	vs.	SEC #9	S. Florida	Kentucky
Liberty	SEC #6 or 7	vs.	C-USA #1	Arkansas	Houston
Alamo	Big 10 #4	vs.	Big 12 #4	Wisconsin	Texas Tech
Fiesta	BCS Big 12	vs.	BCS At-Large	Southern Cal	T C U
Orange	BCS ACC	vs.	BCS At-Large	Clemson	Pittsburgh
G M A C	ACC #9	vs.	MAC	Notre Dame	Central Michigan
National Championship	*** BCS #1 ***	vs.	*** BCS #2 ***	Florida	Texas

 

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week Nine: November 8-9, 2009

Five Key Intra-Divisional Games Highlight Week

 

Week nine finds five key intra-divisional games as well as three other inter-divisional spectaculars.  Cincinnati beat the Ravens in Baltimore earlier in the season, and if the Bengals complete the sweep, Baltimore will find its playoff hopes beginning to dim.

 

Houston visits Indianapolis, and if the Colts win, they will be up four games at the halfway point of the season.  Should the Texans find a way to pull off the upset, Coach Gary Kubiak’s squad will climb to the top of the Wildcard bubble.

 

New England hosts Miami, and the Patriots are coming off a bye week.  A New England win will virtually clinch the AFC East title, but a Dolphin win throws the race open once again.

 

Carolina visits New Orleans in a game that looks like another easy win for the Saints.  However, the Panthers won at Arizona last week, and they could climb back in the playoff race with an upset.

 

Dallas visits Philadelphia, and to the winner goes first place in the NFC East.  It should be an exciting Sunday night game with scoring aplenty.

 

The other three big games are Arizona at Chicago, San Diego at New York (Giants), and Pittsburgh at Denver on Monday night.  All six of these teams are jockeying for playoff positioning.

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
Bitmap NFC East		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Philadelphia		104.6	105.0	104.9	5-2-0	203	133
NY Giants		104.2	102.8	102.0	5-3-0	212	183
Dallas		103.6	104.8	104.7	5-2-0	197	136
Washington		93.0	92.9	92.4	2-5-0	96	123
NFC North		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Minnesota		106.5	105.9	106.6	7-1-0	244	174
Green Bay		102.8	102.5	102.8	4-3-0	187	134
Chicago		100.9	100.8	101.5	4-3-0	159	150
Detroit		91.3	89.6	89.0	1-6-0	113	205
NFC South		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New Orleans		114.6	112.5	112.0	7-0-0	273	154
Atlanta		104.3	104.2	104.1	4-3-0	171	149
Carolina		98.6	96.7	97.8	3-4-0	128	166
Tampa Bay		88.2	89.7	87.2	0-7-0	96	203
NFC West		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Arizona		101.5	102.3	101.3	4-3-0	157	143
San Francisco		101.1	100.7	102.1	3-4-0	147	140
Seattle		95.6	96.9	96.7	2-5-0	135	147
St. Louis		86.3	87.9	90.6	1-7-0	77	221
AFC East		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New England		111.7	108.3	108.8	5-2-0	198	98
NY Jets		101.5	103.3	100.9	4-4-0	177	134
Miami		99.2	102.5	102.1	3-4-0	176	177
Buffalo		96.3	96.2	98.5	3-5-0	123	169
AFC North		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Baltimore		110.5	107.1	107.1	4-3-0	199	137
Pittsburgh		107.3	104.3	105.9	5-2-0	167	129
Cincinnati		103.3	103.4	104.3	5-2-0	163	128
Cleveland		88.0	90.4	85.5	1-7-0	78	209
AFC South		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis		111.7	108.2	109.9	7-0-0	197	91
Houston		103.1	102.0	103.4	5-3-0	198	168
Tennessee		94.9	94.9	94.3	1-6-0	114	211
Jacksonville		92.4	94.6	96.8	3-4-0	133	177
AFC West		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Diego		103.3	101.9	104.0	4-3-0	185	159
Denver		101.4	105.3	104.9	6-1-0	140	96
Oakland		89.3	90.6	89.9	2-6-0	78	201
Kansas City		88.3	92.2	88.3	1-6-0	105	181

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
HFA for Week 9 = 2.3
Vegas Line as of 5:30PM EDT Tuesday
Sunday, November 8, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
JACKSONVILLE	Kansas City	6.4	4.7	10.8	6	42
Baltimore	CINCINNATI	4.9	1.4	0.5	3	44
INDIANAPOLIS	Houston	10.9	8.5	8.8	9	47 1/2
ATLANTA	Washington	13.6	13.6	14.0	10 ½	41 1/2
Green Bay	TAMPA BAY	12.3	10.5	13.3	10	43 1/2
CHICAGO	Arizona	1.7	0.8	2.5	3	44
NEW ENGLAND	Miami	14.8	8.1	9.0	10 1/2	46 1/2
NEW ORLEANS	Carolina	18.3	18.1	16.5	13 1/2	51 1/2
SEATTLE	Detroit	6.6	9.6	10.0	10	43
SAN FRANCISCO	Tennessee	8.5	8.1	10.1	4	41
NEW YORK GIANTS	San Diego	3.2	3.2	0.3	5	47 1/2
PHILADELPHIA	Dallas	3.3	2.5	2.5	3	47 1/2
Monday, November 9, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
Pittsburgh	DENVER	3.6	-3.3	-1.3	3	39 1/2

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For College Football–November 3-7, 2009

Several Big Games To Highlight Weekend

PiRate Ratings Go 9-2 Against Spread

 

Several key games dot the college football schedule this week, and because so many could go either way, we think it’s time to start paring the number of college games we select.  After a 9-2 against the spread, the PiRates are counting their booty.  Our two week record against the spread is 17-3-1, and our percentage for the season is now 63.5% (54-31-2).  We will be playing with Vegas’s money the rest of the year, so we will guarantee ourselves a winning season and play fewer games from here on out, unless we see too many easy ones to pass up.

 

That 9-2 record was really nice, but when we see just how close we came to going 11-0, it is almost a tad disappointing.  We had Indiana +17, and for so long that game looked good until Iowa scored four quick touchdowns.  The other loss was on a 10-point teaser, and two of the three games had already won when a late Brett Favre touchdown pass moved the total score from 57 to 64 points (The 10-point teaser line was 57 ½).  We won with Minnesota +3 vs. Green Bay, Georgia Tech -11 vs. Vanderbilt, Illinois +7 vs. Michigan, Louisville -165 money line vs. Arkansas St., Houston -3 vs. Buffalo, Baltimore -3 ½ vs. Denver, North Carolina +16 ½ vs. Va. Tech, and three teasers.

 

NCAA Top 25 For October 26, 2009
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Texas	136.3	8	0
2	Florida	133.4	8	0
3	Oklahoma	129.8	5	3
4	Alabama	128.9	7	0
5	Oregon	121.9	7	1
6	T C U	121.8	8	0
7	Southern Cal	120.9	6	2
8	Boise St.	119.7	8	0
9	Georgia Tech	119.2	8	1
10	Penn St.	118.9	8	1
11	Iowa	117.9	9	0
12	Va. Tech	117.9	5	3
13	Ohio St.	116.4	7	2
14	Okla. St.	116.0	6	2
15	California	115.8	6	2
16	Cincinnati	115.3	8	0
17	Pittsburgh	115.3	7	1
18	Nebraska	115.1	5	3
19	Ole Miss	114.1	5	3
20	L  S  U	113.9	7	1
21	Miami (Fla.)	113.7	6	2
22	Tennessee	113.6	4	4
23	Arkansas	112.8	4	4
24	Clemson	112.7	5	3
25	Stanford	112.3	5	3
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
Even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Clemson	3-2	5-3	112.7
Boston College	3-2	6-3	110.8
Florida State	2-3	4-4	109.7
Wake Forest	2-3	4-5	104.8
North Carolina State	0-4	3-5	103.2
Maryland	1-3	2-6	91.4
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Georgia Tech	5-1	8-1	119.2
Virginia Tech	3-2	5-3	117.9
Miami-FL	3-2	6-2	113.7
North Carolina	1-3	5-3	108.3
Duke	3-1	5-3	102.5
Virginia	2-2	3-5	98.2

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Cincinnati	4-0	8-0	115.3
Pittsburgh	4-0	7-1	115.3
South Florida	2-2	6-2	105.3
West Virginia	2-1	6-2	104.1
Connecticut	1-3	4-4	103.6
Rutgers	1-2	6-2	101.8
Syracuse	0-3	3-5	92.4
Louisville	0-3	3-5	92.4

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Penn State	4-1	8-1	118.9
Iowa	5-0	9-0	117.9
Ohio State	4-1	7-2	116.4
Wisconsin	3-2	6-2	105.0
Michigan State	3-3	4-5	102.6
Minnesota	3-3	5-4	100.1
Michigan	1-4	5-4	98.3
Purdue	2-3	3-6	95.6
Northwestern	2-3	5-4	94.9
Illinois	1-5	2-6	94.0
Indiana	1-4	4-5	91.5

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	2-2	5-3	115.1
Kansas	1-3	5-3	105.9
Missouri	1-3	5-3	104.9
Kansas State	3-2	5-4	98.9
Iowa State	2-3	5-4	95.5
Colorado	1-3	2-6	95.0
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Texas	5-0	8-0	136.3
Oklahoma	3-1	5-3	129.8
Oklahoma State	3-1	6-2	116.0
Texas Tech	3-2	6-3	112.3
Texas A&M	2-2	5-3	99.8
Baylor	0-4	3-5	99.0

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team			Conf.	Overall		Rating
Southern Mississippi			3-2	5-4		100.7
East Carolina			4-1	5-3		99.9
Marshall			3-2	5-4		95.7
Central Florida			3-2	5-3		95.5
U A B			3-2	3-5		88.9
Memphis			1-4	2-6		84.0
West Division
Team			Conf.	Overall		Rating
Houston			3-1	7-1		106.0
Tulsa			2-2	4-4		97.1
U T E P			2-2	3-5		91.8
S M U			3-1	4-4		90.3
Rice			0-4	0-8		76.4
Tulane			0-4	2-6		73.8
Independents
Team		Overall			Rating
Notre Dame		6-2			109.4
Navy		6-3			100.6
Army		3-5			82.7

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	4-0	6-2	100.2
Buffalo	1-3	3-5	92.4
Ohio U	4-1	6-3	90.1
Kent St.	4-1	5-4	88.9
Bowling Green	2-2	3-5	88.6
Akron	0-4	1-7	82.5
Miami (O)	1-4	1-8	77.4
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Michigan	5-0	7-2	106.7
Northern Illinois	3-1	5-3	94.4
Western Michigan	3-3	4-5	88.4
Toledo	2-3	4-5	86.7
Ball State	1-4	1-8	81.3
Eastern Michigan	0-4	0-8	79.2

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	4-0	8-0	121.8
B Y U	3-1	6-2	109.8
Utah	4-0	7-1	106.3
Air Force	4-2	5-4	99.5
S. D. State	2-2	4-4	89.8
Colo. State	0-5	3-6	89.8
Wyoming	2-2	4-4	89.1
UNLV	1-4	3-6	86.8
New Mexico	0-4	0-8	74.7

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oregon	5-0	7-1	121.9
Southern Cal	3-2	6-2	120.9
California	3-2	6-2	115.8
Stanford	4-2	5-3	112.3
Arizona	3-1	5-2	111.4
Oregon St.	3-2	5-3	105.4
U C L A	0-5	3-5	103.5
Arizona St.	2-3	4-4	102.8
Washington	2-3	3-5	98.7
Wash. St.	0-5	1-7	76.3

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida	6-0	8-0	133.4
Tennessee	2-3	4-4	113.6
Georgia	3-3	4-4	109.2
South Carolina	3-3	6-3	107.6
Kentucky	1-4	4-4	102.9
Vanderbilt	0-5	2-7	92.7
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Alabama	5-0	8-0	128.9
Ole Miss	2-3	5-3	114.1
L S U	4-1	7-1	113.9
Arkansas	1-4	4-4	112.8
Auburn	3-3	6-3	105.3
Mississippi State	2-3	4-5	101.6

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Troy	5-0	6-2	99.1
Arkansas State	1-2	2-5	92.3
Middle Tennessee	3-1	5-3	89.7
Louisiana-Monroe	3-0	3-4	88.1
Florida International	2-3	2-6	84.9
Florida Atlantic	2-2	2-5	84.7
Louisiana	2-2	4-4	81.2
North Texas	1-4	2-6	78.7
Western Kentucky	0-4	0-8	71.7

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	3-0	8-0	119.7
Fresno State	4-1	5-3	102.4
Nevada	4-0	5-3	100.4
Louisiana Tech	2-3	3-5	95.9
Utah State	1-3	2-6	93.7
Idaho	4-1	7-2	90.6
San Jose State	0-3	1-6	86.3
Hawaii	0-5	2-6	82.0
New Mexico State	1-3	3-6	71.8

 

Reminder: Don’t use these ratings against the spread when you pick games.  We rely on several other factors when we pick games against the spread. For our weekly picks, go to www.piratings.webs.com and select “Picks vs. Vegas Line.”  We’re a great bargain at just $5 per week.   This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Tuesday, November 3		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
BUFFALO	Bowling Green	6.5	28-21	0
Thursday, November 5		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
NORTHERN ILLINOIS	Eastern Michigan	18.2	35-17	23
TEMPLE	Miami-OH	25.5	33-7	19
Virginia Tech	EAST CAROLINA	15.0	27-12	10
Friday, November 6		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Boise State	LOUISIANA TECH	20.5	34-13	22
Saturday, November 7		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
MICHIGAN STATE	Western Michigan	16.7	34-17	14
CINCINNATI	Connecticut	14.7	24-9	18
PITTSBURGH	Syracuse	25.9	35-9	24
IOWA	Northwestern	26.2	36-10	23
MINNESOTA	Illinois	9.3	35-26	11
WEST VIRGINIA	Louisville	14.7	35-20	15
N. C. STATE	Maryland	14.8	35-20	7
GEORGIA TECH	Wake Forest	17.4	41-24	17
NORTH CAROLINA	Duke	7.8	31-23	7
Wisconsin	INDIANA	10.5	34-23	11
ARKANSAS	South Carolina	8.2	35-27	6
Oklahoma State	IOWA STATE	17.8	35-17	6
MISSOURI	Baylor	8.9	21-12	11
FLORIDA	Vanderbilt	44.0	47-3	37
Brigham Young	WYOMING	17.7	31-13	11
NOTRE DAME	Navy	12.3	38-26	9
S M U	Rice	16.6	34-17	24
U t e p	TULANE	15.3	42-27	6
ALABAMA	L s u	18.2	28-10	9
TEXAS	Central Florida	44.8	52-7	32
Kent State	AKRON	3.9	24-20	6
AIR FORCE	Army	19.8	30-10	21
Kansas	KANSAS STATE	5.0	27-22	1
Oklahoma	NEBRASKA	11.7	24-12	2
PENN STATE	Ohio State	5.5	16-10	5
T c u	SAN DIEGO STATE	29.0	42-13	25
Fresno State	IDAHO	8.8	30-21	6
UTAH	New Mexico	34.6	42-7	33
ARIZONA	Washington State	38.3	55-17	27
CALIFORNIA	Oregon State	13.4	27-14	6
U C L A	Washington	7.8	35-27	4
Oregon	STANFORD	6.9	31-24	10
Texas A&M	COLORADO	1.8	28-26	7
MIAMI-FL	Virginia	18.7	33-14	14
TENNESSEE	Memphis	32.6	47-14	28
CLEMSON	Florida State	6.0	34-28	10
Houston	TULSA	5.9	37-31	8
Southern Cal	ARIZONA STATE	15.1	38-23	11
MICHIGAN	Purdue	5.7	30-24	6
Colorado State	U N L V	0.3	24-24 ot	0
Utah State	HAWAII	8.7	30-21	1
U A B	Florida Atlantic	6.7	30-23	5
UL-Monroe	NORTH TEXAS	6.7	34-27	5
Troy	WESTERN KENTUCKY	24.9	45-20	26
ARKANSAS STATE	UL-Lafayette	13.8	34-20	10
MIDDLE TENNESSEE	Florida Int’l	7.8	24-16	12

 

Bowl Projections For November 2, 2009

Weekly Bowl Predictions

Monday, November 2, 2009

 

This will be a pivotal weekend in the bowl pecking orders, as several marquee games are on tap.  Two of the big three have easy games this week.  Texas will have little more than a workout against Central Florida, while Florida should have enough points on the board two possessions into the game to beat Vanderbilt.

 

Here’s a conference-by-conference outlook for this week.  Unlike many bowl projections, which use a system based on if the season ended today, the PiRate Bowl Projections looks ahead and predicts where the teams will be on December 6.

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

The Atlantic Division is still very much up-for-grabs with Boston College and Clemson tied for first and Florida State and Wake Forest just one game back.  We think Clemson can run the table and grab the division flag.  

 

Georgia Tech has a one game lead over Duke (yes, Duke), but they are tied in the loss column.  We see the Blue Devils having an excellent chance at becoming bowl eligible, but they aren’t going to run the table and win the Coastal Division.  Georgia Tech just edged Clemson in Atlanta, and we think CU would get revenge in an ACC Championship Game.

 

1. BCS Automatic (Orange)—Clemson

2. Chick-fil-A—Miami

3. Gator—Georgia Tech

4. Champ Sports—Virginia Tech

5. Music City—North Carolina

6. Champs Sports—Boston College

7. Emerald—Florida State

8. Eagle Bank—Duke

9. G M A C—No Team Available

 

Big East

Cincinnati is the darling this year, but we think they will stumble at Pittsburgh on December 5.  The Panthers have home games with Syracuse and Notre Dame and the backyard brawl game at West Virginia, and we think Dave Wannstedt’s team will win out to take the Big East Championship.  The question here is where a Cincinnati team at 11-1 would go.  We think the Bearcats would not garner an at-large bid to a BCS Bowl.

 

This conference will have a little shuffling to make sure there will be no rematch games in bowls.  West Virginia played both East Carolina and Marshall, and they will not play either CUSA team in a bowl

 

1. BCS Automatic (Orange)—Pittsburgh

2. Gator—Notre Dame

3. Meineke Car Care—Cincinnati

4. Papa John’s—West Virginia

5. International—Rutgers

6. St. Petersburg—South Florida

 

Big Ten

Iowa is the reincarnated version of Indiana in 1967, the epitome of cardiac comebacks.  That Indiana team finally fell at Minnesota in November, and the schedule is set for Iowa to have that type of game at Ohio State.  For now, we believe Ohio State doesn’t have the offensive talent to upset the Hawkeyes.

 

Penn State should edge Ohio State, but the season finale at Michigan State is definitely a trap game.  At 11-1, they are in a BCS Bowl for sure, but at 10-2, it becomes a little hazy.

 

The bottom four bowls will shuffle to find their best fit, as we see three 6-6 teams and one 7-5 team vying for those bids.  Michigan will trump the other three even with a 6-6 record.

 

1. BCS Automatic (Rose)—Iowa

1a. BCS At-large ( )—Penn State

2. Capital One—Wisconsin

3. Outback—Ohio State

4. Alamo—Michigan

5. Champs Sports—Minnesota

6. Insight—Michigan State

7. Pizza—Northwestern

 

Big 12

Texas is moving along like a steamroller going down hill.  The Longhorns close the season with Central Florida, Baylor, Kansas, Texas A&M, and the Big 12 North Champion.  A&M may be the only team that can come close, so Mack Brown should get a chance to play for his second national championship in Pasadena.

 

Parity leaves this conference with a distinct possibility of having 10 bowl-eligible teams for eight bowls.  The two teams not receiving bids will be 6-6, so there isn’t a great chance either will earn a bowl.

 

1. BCS Automatic (National Championship)—Texas

2. Cotton—Oklahoma State

3. Holiday—Oklahoma

4. Alamo—Texas Tech

5. Sun—Nebraska

6. Insight—Texas A&M

7. Independence—Missouri

8. Texas—Kansas State

 

Bowl Eligible (at 6-6)

Kansas

Iowa State

 

Conference USA

This conference is a jigsaw puzzle.  East Carolina and Houston now appear to be on a collision course toward meeting in the conference championship game, but both teams face opponents that can upset them.  For now, we’ll stick with Case Keenum and the Cougars to win out and finish the regular season at 12-1.  Whether that could propel them out of the automatic bid to the Liberty Bowl to a better bowl, we don’t know.

 

1. Liberty—Houston

2. Hawaii—East Carolina

3. Armed Forces—S M U

4. New Orleans—Southern Miss

5. St. Petersburg—Marshall

 

Bowl Eligible (all at 6-6)

Tulsa

Central Florida

U A B

 

Independents

Notre Dame will not qualify as a BCS Bowl participant, so they will steal a spot from the Big East.  Navy is one win away from an automatic spot in the Texas Bowl, while Army has too much to do to get bowl eligible.

 

1. Gator Bowl—Notre Dame per Gator Bowl rules with Big East

2. Texas—Navy

3. Eagle Bank—No Team Available (Army falls short)

 

Mid-American

Temple and Central Michigan are headed to the MAC Championship Game, while Northern Illinois, Ohio, and Kent State  appear to be headed to the good kind of bowl eligibility (seven or more wins).  Unfortunately for this league, it now looks like the ACC will have an eligible team for this bowl, so the MAC won’t get a guaranteed fourth bid.  However, we see two teams finishing with seven or more wins and jumping ahead of all the 6-6 teams for any at-large bids.

 

The MAC doesn’t automatically send its overall champion to Detroit.  The Pizza Bowl gets first choice, but they don’t have to take the champion.  Central Michigan went there last year, so we think the Chippewas will head to Mobile instead.

 

1. Pizza—Northern Illinois

2. GMAC—Central Michigan

3. International—Temple

 

Bowl Eligible (7-5 or better)

Ohio U

Kent State

 

Mountain West

T C U closes with San Diego State, Utah, Wyoming, and New Mexico.  SDSU could give the Horned Frogs some competition for 15-25 minutes, but TCU will handle the Aztecs.  Utah is always tough, but the Utes don’t have the horses to win in Ft. Worth.  Wyoming can always surprise in Laramie in late November, but we think TCU will win.  At 12-0 and with road wins against Clemson and BYU, TCU should get a BCS Bowl bid even if Boise State finishes ahead of them in the BCS standings.

 

A. BCS At-Large (Fiesta)—T C U

1. Las Vegas—B Y U

2. Poinsettia—Utah

3. Armed Forces—Air Force

4. New Mexico—San Diego State

5. Humanitarian—No Team Available

 

Pac-10

If Southern Cal receives an at-large BCS bowl bid over a 12-0 TCU or Boise State, it will be highway robbery.  The Trojans could even lose another game, so we are picking them to fall short.  Oregon is in the driver’s seat, but Arizona still lurks in the bushes.  The Ducks must visit Tucson on November 21, and if the Wildcats win at Cal the week before, this game will be for first place in the Pac-10.  We think Oregon can lose this game and still win the championship.

 

1. BCS Automatic (Rose)—Oregon

2. Holiday—Southern Cal

3. Sun—California

4. Las Vegas—Arizona

5. Emerald—Stanford

6. Poinsettia—Oregon State

 

Bowl Eligible (6-6)

U C L A

 

Southeastern

This week, we are back to picking Florida to edge Alabama, but that could change again.  LSU is the clear cut third best team, but there’s a huge drop to the fourth place team.  This league will send 10 teams to bowls, with the bottom five teams finishing with 7-5 or 6-6 records.

 

1. BCS Automatic (National Championship Game)—Florida

1a. BCS At-large (Sugar)—Alabama

2. Capital One—L S U

3. Outback—Tennessee

4. Cotton—Auburn

5. Chick-fil-A—Ole Miss

6. Music City—Georgia

7. Liberty—Ole Miss

8. Independence—Kentucky

9. Papa John’s—South Carolina

 

Sunbelt

Troy has little in its path to securing another SBC title.  This league has only one automatic bowl bid.  Three more bowls guarantee a seven-win SBC team first priority if their contracted conference cannot provide a team, but we believe all three bowls will have a bowl-eligible team from each conference.

 

1. New Orleans—Troy

 

Bowl Eligible (7-5 or better)

Middle Tennessee

 

Western Athletic

Boise State has three games remaining against teams that can give them a run for their money.  A Friday night game this week at Louisiana Tech is a huge trap game, while home games against Idaho and Nevada could be interesting for awhile.  The Broncos should run the table in the regular season for the fourth time in six years.  A win over Pac-10 champ Oregon if the Ducks finish 11-1 should be enough to earn BSU an at-large bid to a BCS Bowl, even if TCU finishes ahead of them.  However, unscrupulous bowl sponsors wouldn’t be required to take the Broncos, even if TCU and Boise State finished 3^rd and 4^th in the final BCS Standings.

 

A. BCS At-Large (Sugar)—Boise State

1. Humanitarian—Idaho

2. New Mexico—Nevada

3. Hawaii—Fresno State

 

The BCS Bowls

National Championship Game—Texas vs. Florida

Fiesta Bowl—Penn State vs. T C U

Orange Bowl—Clemson vs. Pittsburgh

Sugar Bowl—Alabama vs. Boise State

Rose Bowl—Oregon vs. Iowa

 

With Florida finishing first in the BCS Standings, the Sugar Bowl will get the first at-large pick.  Even though Alabama went there last year, we see the Sugar Bowl officials taking the Tide once again.  The Fiesta Bowl would get the next at-large choice after losing Texas to the title game, and we believe they would take Penn State.  The Orange Bowl would then choose Pittsburgh over the rest of the field.  The Fiesta would then take TCU, and the Sugar Bowl would then have all the pressure to either do the right thing and take Boise State or the wrong thing and take a one or even two-loss team (Cincinnati, Southern Cal, Georgia Tech)

 

The Rest

First, let’s take care of the loose change.  There will be three bowls that will not have regularly contracted team available.  The GMAC Bowl will not have an available ACC team; the Eagle Bank Bowl will not have a bowl-eligible Army team; and the Humanitarian Bowl will not have an available Mountain West Team.

 

We expect there to be exactly three bowl-eligible teams with seven or more wins, and they will fill the three slots ahead of a host of 6-6 teams from BCS conferences.  Those three fortunate teams are Ohio U, Kent State, and Middle Tennessee.  

 

Note: Teams in asterisks are 7-win or better at-large bowl eligible teams

 

New Mexico	San Diego State	vs.	Nevada
St. Petersburg	South Florida	vs.	Marshall
New Orleans	Troy	vs.	Southern Miss
Las Vegas	B Y U	vs.	Arizona
Poinsettia	Utah	vs.	Oregon State
Hawaii	Fresno State	vs.	East Carolina
Little Caesar’s Pizza	Northern Illinois	vs.	Northwestern
Meineke Car Care	Boston College	vs.	Cincinnati
Emerald	Florida State	vs.	Stanford
Music City	North Carolina	vs.	Georgia
Independence	Kentucky	vs.	Missouri
Eagle Bank	Duke	vs.	Kent State
Champs Sports	Virginia Tech	vs.	Minnesota
Humanitarian	Idaho	vs.	Ohio U
Holiday	Southern Cal	vs.	Oklahoma
Armed Forces	Air Force	vs.	S M U
Sun	Nebraska	vs.	California
Texas	Navy	vs.	Kansas State
Insight.com	Michigan State	vs.	Texas A&M
Chick-fil-A	Miami-FL	vs.	Arkansas
Outback	Ohio State	vs.	Tennessee
Capital One	Wisconsin	vs.	L S U
Gator	Georgia Tech	vs.	Notre Dame
International	Rutgers	vs.	Temple
Cotton	Oklahoma State	vs.	Auburn
Papajohns.com	West Virginia	vs.	South Carolina
Liberty	Ole Miss	vs.	Houston
Alamo	Michigan	vs.	Texas Tech
G M A C	Central Michigan	vs.	Middle Tennessee

 

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week Eight: November 1-2, 2009

All Eyes On The Frozen Tundra

Favre Returns to Green Bay

 

The date has been circled on thousands of calendars in the Badger state since August.  Rumors have it that almost three dozen hotel and motel rooms were reserved by friends and family even before the announcement had been made that Brett Favre was indeed signing with the Minnesota Vikings.  It’s finally here!  Favre returns to Lambeau Field for the first time since he left the Packers.  The last pass he threw at Lambeau was intercepted by New York Giants defensive back Corey Webster.  It broke the hearts of 73,000 fans who were all sure Green Bay was headed to the Super Bowl.

The Minnesota Vikings have many thousand loyal fans in Wisconsin. Near the town of Chippewa Falls, Wisconsin, is the Half-Way Bar.  It supposedly sits equidistant from Lambeau Field and the old Metropolitan Stadium in Bloomington, where the Vikings played before moving into the Metrodome (It is now the location of the Mall of America).  The eastern half of this bar is painted Green and Gold, while the western half of this bar is painted purple and white.  The patrons sip on Leininkugel’s beer, eat brats and fried cheese curds, and carry on like the other half of the bar doesn’t exist.  Well, at least that’s so until a Packer fan yells out something about the “ViQueens.”  Then, it becomes the Hatfield’s and McCoy’s bar.

Almost overlooked by the rivalry is the fact that this game is very important in the standings.  A Green Bay win moves the Packers just ½ game behind Minnesota.  A Viking win gives them a 2 ½ game lead plus a sweep over Green Bay.  How do the PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings see this game?  Look below; it’s should be one worth watching even if you have to go to the Half-Way Bar to do so.

Will this game be one of our picks against the spread this week?  It will cost you just $5 to get all of our picks.  Go to www.piratings.webs.com to purchase our picks for the week.  If you played with us last week, then our picks made you happy as they finished 8-2-1.  

NFC East		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
NY Giants		105.5	105.0	105.9	5-2-0	195	143
Philadelphia		103.3	102.6	103.1	4-2-0	163	116
Dallas		102.7	104.3	104.6	4-2-0	159	119
Washington		93.0	93.1	92.0	2-5-0	96	123
NFC North		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Minnesota		105.6	104.5	107.0	6-1-0	206	148
Green Bay		103.7	105.3	105.6	4-2-0	161	96
Chicago		100.2	99.6	98.9	3-3-0	129	144
Detroit		93.0	90.5	92.1	1-5-0	103	188
NFC South		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New Orleans		115.0	113.5	113.7	6-0-0	238	127
Atlanta		103.9	102.4	103.8	4-2-0	144	114
Carolina		96.8	94.2	94.8	2-4-0	94	145
Tampa Bay		88.2	89.5	89.1	0-7-0	96	203
NFC West		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Arizona		103.3	104.5	105.3	4-2-0	136	109
San Francisco		100.3	100.4	99.1	3-3-0	133	122
Seattle		96.5	97.6	96.0	2-4-0	118	109
St. Louis		84.9	86.5	86.1	0-7-0	60	211
AFC East		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New England		111.7	108.8	109.7	5-2-0	198	98
NY Jets		102.0	104.1	101.4	4-3-0	152	104
Miami		98.7	101.9	99.7	2-4-0	146	152
Buffalo		97.6	97.3	96.7	3-4-0	113	138
AFC North		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Baltimore		109.3	105.2	103.1	3-3-0	169	130
Pittsburgh		107.3	104.7	107.4	5-2-0	167	129
Cincinnati		103.3	103.1	104.5	5-2-0	163	128
Cleveland		88.7	90.9	89.5	1-6-0	72	179
AFC South		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis		112.5	109.8	111.8	6-0-0	179	77
Houston		101.8	99.8	101.1	4-3-0	167	158
Tennessee		93.7	93.3	90.4	0-6-0	84	198
Jacksonville		93.6	96.7	96.4	3-3-0	120	147
AFC West		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Diego		104.0	101.7	101.9	3-3-0	161	143
Denver		102.6	108.2	108.3	6-0-0	133	66
Oakland		88.6	89.6	91.0	2-5-0	62	177
Kansas City		88.3	91.5	90.1	1-6-0	105	181

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
HFA for Week 7 = 2.2
Vegas Line as of 4:30PM EDT Tuesday
Sunday, November 1, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
BALTIMORE	Denver	8.9	-0.8	-3.0	3 1/2	42
CHICAGO	Cleveland	13.7	10.9	11.6	13 1/2	40
Houston	BUFFALO	2.0	0.3	2.2	3	41 1/2
GREEN BAY	Minnesota	0.3	3.0	0.8	3	47 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS	San Francisco	14.4	11.6	14.9	12	43 1/2
NEW YORK JETS	Miami	5.7	4.4	3.9	3	40 1/2
DETROIT	St. Louis	10.3	6.2	8.2	NL	NL
DALLAS	Seattle	8.4	8.9	10.8	9 1/2	46
SAN DIEGO	Oakland	17.6	14.3	13.1	16 1/2	41 1/2
TENNESSEE	Jacksonville	2.3	-1.2	-3.8	3	44 1/2
ARIZONA	Carolina	8.7	12.5	12.7	9 1/2	41
PHILADELPHIA	New York Giants	0.0	-0.2	-0.6	1 1/2	44
Monday, November 2, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
NEW ORLEANS	Atlanta	13.3	13.3	12.1	10	54 1/2

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For College Football–October 27-31, 2009

A New Number One In The PiRate Ratings

PiRate Picks Go 8-2-1 against the Spread

 

For the first time this season, the Florida Gators don’t occupy the top spot in the PiRate Ratings.  However, unlike some polls and other ratings, it’s not Alabama that has displaced Tebow Incorporated.  Texas surpassed Florida following an impressive blowout win at Missouri.  If the Longhorns can win at Oklahoma State, it looks highly favorable for Coach Mack Brown to direct the Longhorns to their second National Championship Game appearance in five years.

 

We receive e-mails from readers (pirate_ratings@live.com), asking how a team like Oklahoma can be rated so high with three losses.  We must remind you that the PiRate Ratings Top 25 is not a poll like those voted on by journalists or coaches.  These ratings do not rank teams based on what they have done so far this season.  They are meant to estimate the point spread differential between teams before applying home field advantage and about a dozen other variables.

 

Additionally, we must reiterate that you should not use the raw PiRate Ratings when picking games against the spread.  We only use it as a beginning point.  For example, let’s take a look at a sample game from last week—Rutgers at Army.  Rutgers entered the week with a Pirate Rating of 100.8 compared to Army at 82.9.  That’s a spread of 17.9.  Army’s home field advantage for the weeknight nationally televised game was just two points.  So, now we have Rutgers favored by 15.9.  Next, we looked at several variables to see how they affected this particular game.  One major variable was Rutgers’ run defense being superior to the average run defense, while Army relies almost exclusively on the run.  That tilted our in-house spread by three points in Rutgers’ favor, making it now 18.9.  RU had an extra day to prepare, and we moved the in-house spread by 1.5 points, making it 20.4.  The Las Vegas line for the game was Rutgers by 10, and our spread differed by 10.4.  Thus Rutgers -10 became our top college selection for the week.

 

If you want this week’s selections by Thursday afternoon, go to www.piratings.webs.com and click on “Picks vs. Vegas Line.”  We offer a bargain at just $5 per week.  We had dozens of happy customers last week when our picks finished 8-2-1.  For the season, our record against the spread is now 45-29-2 for 60.8%.

 

NCAA Top 25 For October 26, 2009
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Texas	135.8	7	0
2	Florida	133.2	7	0
3	Oklahoma	129.8	4	3
4	Alabama	130.2	7	0
5	Southern Cal	124.1	6	1
6	T C U	121.2	7	0
7	Va. Tech	120.5	5	2
8	Boise St.	116.6	7	0
9	Penn St.	116.6	7	1
10	Oregon	116.5	6	1
11	Georgia Tech	116.4	7	1
12	Iowa	117.3	8	0
13	Ole Miss	116.7	5	2
14	Okla. St.	116.5	6	1
15	Ohio St.	116.4	6	2
16	California	115.7	5	2
17	Pittsburgh	115.3	7	1
18	Nebraska	114.9	4	3
19	Cincinnati	114.5	7	0
20	L  S  U	113.7	6	1
21	Miami (Fla.)	113.6	5	2
22	Arkansas	112.5	3	4
23	Clemson	112.4	4	3
24	Stanford	112.3	5	3
25	Arizona	111.4	5	2
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Clemson	3-2	4-3	112.4
Florida State	1-3	3-4	110.4
Boston College	3-2	5-3	109.0
Wake Forest	2-2	4-4	104.9
North Carolina State	0-3	3-4	102.5
Maryland	1-3	2-6	91.4
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Virginia Tech	3-1	5-2	120.5
Georgia Tech	5-1	7-1	118.4
Miami-FL	2-2	5-2	113.6
North Carolina	0-3	4-3	105.7
Duke	2-1	4-3	100.9
Virginia	2-1	3-4	100.0

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Pittsburgh	4-0	7-1	115.3
Cincinnati	3-0	7-0	114.5
West Virginia	2-0	6-1	105.1
Connecticut	1-2	4-3	104.4
South Florida	1-2	5-2	104.3
Rutgers	0-2	5-2	101.0
Syracuse	0-2	3-4	92.9
Louisville	0-3	2-5	91.7

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Penn State	3-1	7-1	118.6
Iowa	4-0	8-0	117.3
Ohio State	4-1	6-2	116.4
Michigan State	3-2	4-4	103.9
Wisconsin	2-2	5-2	102.0
Michigan	1-3	5-3	101.8
Minnesota	2-3	4-4	98.8
Purdue	2-2	3-5	98.6
Northwestern	2-2	5-3	95.2
Indiana	1-3	4-4	91.8
Illinois	0-5	1-6	91.0

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	1-2	4-3	114.9
Kansas	1-2	5-2	107.7
Missouri	0-3	4-3	103.2
Kansas State	3-1	5-3	98.9
Iowa State	2-2	5-3	97.3
Colorado	1-2	2-5	96.7
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Texas	4-0	7-0	135.8
Oklahoma	2-1	4-3	129.8
Oklahoma State	3-0	6-1	116.5
Texas Tech	2-2	5-3	111.0
Baylor	0-3	3-4	99.4
Texas A&M	1-2	4-3	97.7

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Southern Mississippi	3-1	5-3	100.8
East Carolina	3-1	4-3	98.6
Marshall	3-1	5-3	95.9
Central Florida	2-2	4-3	95.3
U A B	2-2	2-5	87.6
Memphis	1-3	2-5	85.5
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Houston	2-1	6-1	105.9
Tulsa	2-1	4-3	100.3
U T E P	2-1	3-4	93.1
S M U	2-1	3-4	87.8
Rice	0-4	0-8	76.4
Tulane	0-4	2-5	74.0

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		5-2	109.2
Navy		6-2	102.0
Army		3-5	82.7

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	4-0	5-2	98.5
Buffalo	1-3	3-5	92.4
Ohio U	3-1	5-3	89.9
Bowling Green	2-2	3-5	88.6
Kent St.	3-1	4-4	87.8
Akron	0-3	1-6	83.6
Miami (O)	0-4	0-8	75.5
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Michigan	5-0	7-1	108.2
Northern Illinois	2-1	4-3	93.3
Western Michigan	3-2	4-4	89.5
Toledo	2-2	4-4	88.9
Ball State	1-3	1-7	81.5
Eastern Michigan	0-4	0-7	79.5

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	3-0	7-0	121.2
B Y U	3-1	6-2	109.8
Utah	3-0	6-1	106.8
Air Force	3-2	4-4	98.6
Colo. State	0-4	3-5	90.7
S. D. State	1-2	3-4	90.3
Wyoming	2-1	4-3	88.6
UNLV	1-3	3-5	87.4
New Mexico	0-3	0-7	74.4

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Southern Cal	3-1	6-1	124.1
Oregon	4-0	6-1	118.5
California	2-2	5-2	115.7
Stanford	4-2	5-3	112.3
Arizona	3-1	5-2	111.4
Oregon St.	2-2	4-3	104.8
U C L A	0-4	3-4	104.1
Arizona St.	2-2	4-3	102.9
Washington	2-3	3-5	98.7
Wash. St.	0-5	1-6	76.5

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida	5-0	7-0	133.2
Tennessee	1-3	3-4	111.9
Georgia	3-2	4-3	109.4
South Carolina	3-2	6-2	108.8
Kentucky	1-3	4-3	105.1
Vanderbilt	0-5	2-6	93.5
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Alabama	5-0	8-0	128.9
Ole Miss	2-2	5-2	116.7
L S U	4-1	6-1	113.7
Arkansas	1-4	3-4	112.5
Auburn	2-3	5-3	102.7
Mississippi State	1-3	3-5	99.4

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Troy	4-0	5-2	98.6
Arkansas State	1-2	2-4	93.0
Middle Tennessee	2-1	4-3	89.4
Louisiana-Monroe	3-0	3-4	88.1
Florida International	1-3	1-6	85.1
Florida Atlantic	2-1	2-4	85.0
Louisiana	2-1	4-3	81.0
North Texas	0-4	1-6	77.7
Western Kentucky	0-3	0-7	72.7

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	2-0	7-0	118.6
Fresno State	3-1	4-3	102.7
Nevada	3-0	4-3	100.3
Louisiana Tech	2-2	3-4	96.2
Utah State	1-2	2-5	93.4
Idaho	3-1	6-2	90.3
San Jose State	0-2	1-5	87.1
Hawaii	0-4	2-5	82.1
New Mexico State	1-3	3-5	71.8

This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Tuesday, October 27		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
East Carolina	MEMPHIS	10.4	30-20	7
Wednesday, October 28		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
None
Thursday, October 29		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
VIRGINIA TECH	North Carolina	18.0	28-10	18
Friday, October 30		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
SOUTH FLORIDA	West Virginia	2.4	28-26	0
Saturday, October 31		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
CONNECTICUT	Rutgers	6.4	27-21	5
Cincinnati	SYRACUSE	18.9	31-12	21
BOSTON COLLEGE	Central Michigan	4.3	28-24	2
Ohio U	BALL STATE	5.9	20-14	10
VIRGINIA	Duke	2.1	19-17	5
IOWA	Indiana	28.7	35-6	24
WISCONSIN	Purdue	6.4	30-24	10
Miami (Fl)	WAKE FOREST	6.0	27-21	7
FLORIDA STATE	North Carolina St.	11.1	35-24	12
NORTHERN ILLINOIS	Akron	12.7	27-14	17
OHIO STATE	New Mexico St.	48.6	49-0	36
Georgia Tech	VANDERBILT	22.2	31-9	20
TEXAS A&M	Iowa State	3.7	31-27	1
Ole Miss	AUBURN	10.8	31-20	1
ARKANSAS	Eastern Michigan	37.0	47-10	35
KENT STATE	Western Michigan	1.0	24-23	1
Nebraska	BAYLOR	13.0	23-10	9
TULSA	S  m  u	15.5	40-24	9
U  T  E  P	U  a  b	8.5	30-21	8
BOISE STATE	San Jose State	34.7	45-10	33
Florida      (N)	Georgia	23.8	34-10	20
Toledo	MIAMI (O)	10.9	35-24	5
OREGON STATE	U  c  l  a	3.9	27-23	9
NAVY	Temple	6.5	24-17	10
California	ARIZONA STATE	9.8	34-24	5
Michigan	ILLINOIS	8.1	31-23	10
Missouri	COLORADO	3.5	28-24	3
OKLAHOMA	Kansas State	34.1	41-7	19
Texas	OKLAHOMA STATE	16.1	40-24	9
NEVADA	Hawaii	21.7	45-23	15
T  C  U	U  n  l  v	37.0	40-3	33
Air Force	COLORADO STATE	5.2	21-16	4
Penn State	NORTHWESTERN	20.4	30-10	16
Louisiana Tech	IDAHO	2.9	31-28	6
FRESNO STATE	Utah State	12.5	27-14	18
KENTUCKY	Mississippi State	8.7	30-21	8
TEXAS TECH	Kansas	6.3	34-28	6
SAN DIEGO STATE	New Mexico	18.6	35-16	19
NOTRE DAME	Washington State	36.7	51-14	25
TENNESSEE	South Carolina	6.3	20-14	5
Southern Cal	OREGON	2.4	30-28	-4
HOUSTON	Southern Miss	8.1	35-27	11
UTAH	Wyoming	21.2	35-14	19
L  S  U	Tulane	42.2	49-7	36
Michigan State	MINNESOTA	2.1	24-22	1
LOUISVILLE	Arkansas State	1.7	26-24	3
FLORIDA INT’L	U L-Lafayette	6.6	24-17	2
NORTH TEXAS	Western Kentucky	7.5	34-26	12
Middle Tennessee	FLORIDA ATLANTIC	1.7	30-28	0
TROY	U L-Monroe	13.5	41-27	9

Bowl Projections For October 26, 2009

TCU and Boise State in Hectic Race For BCS Gold

 

The BCS bowl agreement only awards one guaranteed at-large invitation to a qualifying team from a non-BCS conference.  Two non-BCS teams can be selected for a BCS at-large bowl, but they can turn away a 12-0 team in favor of another team from a BCS conference.  Thus, if Boise State and TCU both finish 12-0, only one of the two will be guaranteed a spot in a BCS Bowl Game.  The other team could and will more than likely lose out to a 10-2 team from the Pac-10, Big 10, Big East, or SEC.

 

For our weekly Bowl Projections, we are going with TCU to finish a shade higher than Boise State and earn the automatic BCS Bowl bid.  We believe that Penn State, Southern Cal, and Florida will also earn at-large invitations, so Boise State will be excluded from the big bowls.  At 12-0, the Humanitarian won’t be good enough for the Broncos, so for the second season in a row, there will be some back room deals made.  Our bowl projections are the only ones that are factoring this as of now.

 

New Mexico: Utah vs. Nevada

This would be a great battle between Utah’s strong defense and Nevada’s eye-popping pistol offense.

 

St. Petersburg: Rutgers vs. Marshall

Mark Snyder was on the hot seat entering this season, but he has the Thundering Herd on track to finish with seven wins.  If Marshall can upset Central Florida this week, they could even jump into the CUSA Championship game.

 

New Orleans: Troy vs. UTEP

Mike Price has the Miners poised to win the CUSA’s West Division, as they already hold the tiebreaker advantage over Houston and Tulsa.  We expect them to lose in the conference championship game and slip to the Crescent City.

 

Las Vegas: Boise State vs. Cincinnati

What better place for an arranged marriage in a bowl than sin city?  We believe Boise State will run the table and, at 12-0, lose out in the BCS sweepstakes to a 10-2 team with more ticket-buying and media-garnering clout.  Like last year, the WAC will be shopping to move the Broncos up into a better bowl.  The Pac-10 will fall short by one spot if both Oregon and Southern Cal make BCS bowls and Stanford finishes 5-7. 

 

We believe Cincinnati will lose to Pittsburgh in the season finale, and the 11-1 Bearcats will also be shunned by the BCS in favor of a 10-2 team.  So, this million dollar payout bowl will set up a great match.

 

Poinsettia: B Y U vs. Oregon State

Any chance for a big bowl for these teams ended this past Saturday.  BYU’s pasting by TCU and Oregon State’s near miss at USC will move these teams down to lower tiered bowls.

 

Hawaii: Fresno State vs. Houston

Since Hawaii will not be bowl eligible this season, another WAC team will get the honors.  Fresno State would fit here quite comfortably.  As for Houston, the Cougars might deserve much better, but they still must play at Tulsa and at UCF, and they need UTEP to lose at least once.

 

Pizza (formerly Motor City): Minnesota vs. Northern Illinois

The Gophers have slipped quite a bit in recent weeks and need to recover just to gain bowl eligibility.  Northern Illinois won’t win the MAC, but we believe the Huskies will be the choice team for this bowl, sending the MAC Champ south to Mobile.

 

Meineke Car Care: Boston College vs. Connecticut

This would be an excellent regional game between teams that should be playing each other.  Connecticut would be the sixth Big East team to make a bowl, made possible by Cincinnati moving up to a better bowl than what would be available.

 

Emerald: U C L A vs. Florida State

This would be a decent attraction and a nice rematch of the 2006 game.  UCLA missed out on a bowl last year, and this could be Bobby Bowden’s final game, so it would be interesting.

 

Music City: South Carolina vs. North Carolina

These two teams played in the regular season last year, and it would be a great rivalry matchup in Nashville.  It’s a border war with two legendary coaches.

 

Independence: Kentucky vs. Kansas

These two basketball schools with familial ties would give this bowl its best matchup in years.

 

Eagle Bank: Kent State vs. Central Florida

These are two quasi at-large selections.  It looks like Army will finish 5-7 at best and fail to qualify.  If Army isn’t eligible, this bowl is supposed to take an at-large team from CUSA.  The ACC may not have a ninth team available, and this bowl is supposed to choose an at-large team from the MAC.  Kent State hasn’t been to a bowl since Coach Don James took them to the 1972 Tangerine Bowl (lost to Tampa).

 

Champ Sports: Georgia Tech vs. Michigan St.

Almost all other prognosticators are picking Georgia Tech to make it to the Orange Bowl.  We have an opposing view right now.  We think Clemson may very well run the table and oppose Tech in the ACC Championship Game.  Having already faced the spread option and actually beating themselves more than losing this game, we see CU getting revenge and plunging the Yellow Jackets to this bowl.

 

Humanitarian: Idaho vs. Kansas State

We place Idaho here after moving Boise State to a better locale.  The Vandals played here in their only bowl game 11 years ago, edging Southern Miss in a high-scoring affair.  Kansas State is the current leader in the Big 12 North, but with a concluding schedule of Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska, we see them losing at least twice more.  Since the Big 12 will not produce an at-large BCS participant, we see nine bowl-eligible teams for eight spots.  The Wildcats are the odd team out and will have to go to the field of blue.

 

Holiday: Oklahoma vs. California

This might be a disappointment game as neither team will believe it a reward to play in this game after both had aspirations of greatness.

 

Armed Forces: Tulsa vs. Air Force

Tulsa’s high-powered passing game against Air Force’s option offense and strong defense will make this an interesting study in contrasts.  Air Force has been here two consecutive seasons, but for obvious reasons, they belong in this game most years.

 

Sun: Arizona vs. Texas Tech

This matchup should fill up the Sun Bowl as both teams wouldn’t have all that far to travel.  It would be a fresh pairing.

 

Texas: Texas A&M vs. Navy

Navy will automatically earn this bowl with a win over Temple this weekend.  Texas A&M joins the bowl talk after their upset over Texas Tech.  This would be an interesting and very high scoring game.

 

Insight.com: Missouri vs. Northwestern

Yes, these two teams played each other in the Alamo Bowl last year, but that game was the most exciting bowl game of all.  It would be a great rematch in a different venue.

 

Chick-fil-A: Tennessee vs. Virginia Tech

The Volunteers have now played the number one team close twice this season.  If they get by South Carolina this week, then watch out.  They could win out and move up to this game.  Interestingly, when Coach Lane Kiffin’s mentor, Pete Carroll, took over at Southern Cal, the Trojans followed this gameplan exactly, coming on strong to win out and get to seven wins.  Might Tennessee be poised to become the USC of the Southeast?

 

Outback: Ole Miss vs. Wisconsin

This isn’t the New Year’s Bowl Ole Miss expected to be playing in this year.  They had thoughts of Sugar.  Wisconsin wasn’t picked to play in a New Year’s Bowl at all, so this would be a grand reward for the Badgers, especially since it could be 70 degrees warmer in Tampa than in Madison on January 1.

 

Capital One: Ohio State vs. L S U

This is a rematch of the 2007-08 BCS Championship Game.  Ohio State would move up to this one if Penn State and Iowa both received BCS Bowl bids, and we think that will happen.

 

Gator: Notre Dame vs. Miami-FL

It’s been seven years since the Irish played in the Gator Bowl, and if they have eight or nine wins, they will be back in Jacksonville.  Having a former heated rival as an opponent makes this one a must-watch game.

 

Rose: Oregon vs. Iowa

Oregon has to beat USC in Eugene this weekend, or all bets are off in this one.  If USC wins, then the Trojans will play here and Oregon will be on the BCS bubble with Boise State.  Iowa can lose a game and still secure this bid.  We see them finishing 11-1.  Iowa’s last Rose Bowl trip was 19 years ago, while Oregon hasn’t been to Pasadena in 15 years.

 

Sugar: Florida vs. Pittsburgh

This one may look odd to you, but here’s how we decided on this pairing.  As of today, we believe Alabama would beat Florida in the SEC Championship Game and Pittsburgh would edge Cincinnati in their final regular season game.  The Sugar Bowl would get first choice to pick a replacement when Alabama earned the Top Seed.  The Sugar Bowl would then have to wait while the Fiesta and Orange Bowls selected ahead of them.  The Panthers would be what was left.

 

International: West Virginia vs. Temple

Five years ago, this would have been a conference game.  Temple is close to becoming bowl eligible.  The Owls last played in a bowl in 1979, when Mark Bright and Kevin Duckett ran all over California in the now defunct Garden State Bowl.

 

Cotton: Oklahoma State vs. Arkansas

The Cotton Bowl officials could jump over the Cowboys in favor of their arch-rival, but OSU should have at least one more win.  Arkansas is always a great draw for this bowl, and we see them earning this spot over Ole Miss.

 

PapaJohns.com: South Florida vs. Auburn

Auburn missed out on a bowl last year, and the Tigers have never played in this Birmingham bowl.  This bowl hasn’t drawn well, so this might be a great choice.

 

Liberty: Georgia vs. Southern Miss

It may be a slight stretch, but we believe Southern Miss will edge East Carolina and win the CUSA East title (forcing ECU to finish 6-6 and miss out on a bowl).  We then believe they will beat UTEP and earn this automatic bid.

 

Georgia hasn’t played in the Liberty Bowl since 1987, so this would be a decent location for the finish to a rebuilding year.

 

Alamo: Michigan vs. Nebraska

This was an excellent Alamo Bowl game four years ago, and we see it as a great repeat this year.  The Wolverines high-flying offense against the Cornhuskers’ Black Shirt defense would be a great draw.

 

Fiesta: Southern Cal vs. T C U

With Texas earning the number two ranking, the Fiesta Bowl would get the second at-large pick.  We see them taking the Trojans.  Then, after the Orange Bowl chose their at-large selection, this bowl would grab TCU over Pittsburgh.  It would be an interesting game and give the Horned Frogs a chance to show they belong among the nation’s elite for the first time since the Jim Swink days in the mid 1950’s.

 

Orange: Clemson vs. Penn State

Clemson has Coastal Carolina, Florida State, North Carolina State, Virginia, and South Carolina remaining on their schedule, and we see no impediment between the Tigers and the Atlantic Division title.  If they face Georgia Tech in a rematch, we believe they will win and win handily.  That would earn them an automatic trip to Miami.  Penn State may be the controversial choice if they are 10-2 and Boise State is 12-0 and Cincinnati 11-1, but money matters more to the bowl games.

 

G M A C: Central Michigan vs. Middle Tennessee

Central Michigan will win the MAC Championship, but since the Chippewas played in Detroit last year, we think they will be sent to Mobile this year.  We don’t see a ninth ACC team qualifying, and Middle Tennessee will earn this bowl over a half dozen 6-6 teams from bigger conferences.

 

National Championship Game: Alabama vs. Texas

These teams have faced off in several five memorable bowl games in the past.  Texas won four and the other ended in a tie.  Alabama was supposed to win all five times.  This will be an excellent game with twists and turns, and it could pit the top two vote-getters in the Heisman Trophy race as well.

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week Seven: October 25-26, 2009

Vikings-Steelers Headline The Week

 

Brett Favre is the modern day Y.A. Tittle.  Tittle was considered over-the-hill and washed up after 1960.  After playing three years with the Baltimore Colts, two of them in the old All American Football Conference, Tittle spent 10 years with the San Francisco 49ers.  In 1960, John Brodie took his job away.  Tittle went to the New York Giants for the 1961 season and spent four years starting as their quarterback.  His record as a starter for the Giants his first three years was 31-5-1, and his best statistical season was 1963 at the age of 37, when he led the NFL with a 104.8 passer rating.  Tittle led the Giants to the NFL Championship Game all three of those years.

 

History lesson over.  Favre is three years older now than Tittle was in 1963, but through six games, he is having his best year statistically in his career.  His 109.5 passer rating is almost 10 points higher than his previous best.  He’s completing nearly 70% of his passes, and he has 12 touchdown strikes to just two interceptions.

 

His counterpart Sunday, Ben Roethlisberger, is also off to his best ever start in the NFL.  His 104.5 Passer Rating looks all the more impressive when you throw in he is leading the AFC in passing yards. 

 

This should be quite an entertaining game this week, and who know?  We could be watching a preview of the Super Bowl. 

 

The other big game this week is New Orleans at Miami.  It’s awfully early in the season, but the Dolphins have quite a history for ending opposing teams’ undefeated seasons.  Miami is playing sound ball after beginning the season with three tough losses.  The Dolphins benefit from having an extra week to prepare for this game, and it’s their style of play that could put keep Drew Brees on the sideline longer than he needs to stay sharp.

 

We here wonder how the New England Patriots will be received in London.  Will the fans at Wembly Stadium cheer for the team with the word “England” in their title, or will they boo a team with the nickname of “Patriots?”  It won’t affect the game, because the team with the name “Tampa Bay” could hire Tony Blair or Gordon Brown as coach and perform no worse than they have to date.  Too bad the Bucs don’t play St. Louis or Tennessee.

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
NFC East		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
NY Giants		107.6	106.3	106.6	5-1-0	178	119
Philadelphia		103.0	103.3	103.3	3-2-0	136	99
Dallas		99.7	102.4	102.4	3-2-0	122	98
Washington		93.3	93.7	91.6	2-4-0	79	96
NFC North		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Minnesota		106.4	105.4	107.4	6-0-0	189	121
Chicago		103.0	103.3	103.3	3-2-0	119	99
Green Bay		101.5	101.9	103.3	3-2-0	130	93
Detroit		93.0	91.6	93.5	1-5-0	103	188
NFC South		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New Orleans		113.8	112.2	111.4	5-0-0	192	93
Atlanta		106.6	105.1	105.6	4-1-0	123	77
Carolina		98.4	96.0	97.3	2-3-0	85	125
Tampa Bay		88.9	91.3	86.6	0-6-0	89	168
NFC West		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Arizona		100.9	103.5	103.5	3-2-0	112	92
San Francisco		100.5	100.2	101.6	3-2-0	112	98
Seattle		96.5	98.4	98.0	2-4-0	118	109
St. Louis		87.9	87.4	88.7	0-6-0	54	169
AFC East		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New England		111.0	107.2	107.5	4-2-0	163	91
NY Jets		99.6	101.2	100.4	3-3-0	114	104
Miami		98.8	100.9	100.4	2-3-0	112	106
Buffalo		96.0	96.4	95.7	2-4-0	93	129
AFC North		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Baltimore		109.3	104.8	103.6	3-3-0	169	130
Pittsburgh		106.2	103.3	105.1	4-2-0	140	112
Cincinnati		100.5	99.9	102.1	4-2-0	118	118
Cleveland		91.4	93.2	92.3	1-5-0	69	148
AFC South		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis		110.0	108.6	109.6	5-0-0	137	71
Houston		101.6	99.3	100.4	3-3-0	143	137
Tennessee		93.7	93.9	89.9	0-6-0	84	198
Jacksonville		93.6	96.8	95.3	3-3-0	120	147
AFC West		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Denver		102.6	105.6	106.1	6-0-0	133	66
San Diego		101.7	100.5	101.9	2-3-0	124	136
Oakland		91.5	91.8	92.1	2-4-0	62	139
Kansas City		91.1	94.2	93.7	1-5-0	98	144

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
HFA for Week 7 = 2.7
Vegas Line as of 7:30PM EDT Tuesday
Sunday, October 25, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
San Diego	KANSAS CITY	7.9	3.6	5.5	5 1/2	44
Indianapolis	ST. LOUIS	19.4	18.5	17.9	13	45
CINCINNATI	Chicago	0.2	-0.7	1.5	1 1/2	41 1/2
Green Bay	CLEVELAND	7.4	6.0	8.3	7	41 1/2
PITTSBURGH	Minnesota	2.5	0.6	0.4	4	45
New England     (N)	Tampa Bay	22.1	15.9	20.9	15	45
HOUSTON	San Francisco	3.8	1.8	1.5	3	44
New York Jets	OAKLAND	5.4	6.7	5.6	6	34 1/2
CAROLINA	Buffalo	5.1	2.3	4.3	NL	NL
New Orleans	MIAMI	12.3	8.3	7.9	6	47
Atlanta	DALLAS	4.2	0.0	0.5	-4	47 1/2
NEW YORK GIANTS	Arizona	9.4	5.5	5.8	7	46
Monday, October 26, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
Philadelphia	WASHINGTON	7.0	6.9	9.0	7	37 1/2

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For College Football–October 21-24, 2009

Time To Start Bowl Projecting

 

With the initial BCS ranking coming out this week, it’s time for the PiRates to start projecting the bowls.  Of course, the only one that really matters is the National Championship Game.  It looks rather easy as of right now.  Most of our competitors are picking Texas to play the winner of the Florida-Alabama SEC Championship Game.  We don’t concur for one reason—we think Texas will lose one of its remaining Big 12 games.  The Longhorns have squeaked by Texas Tech and Oklahoma.  We think either Missouri, Oklahoma State, or even Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship Game could knock the Longhorns off their perch.

 

That presents a major problem for the BCS.  Boise State is sitting at number four, and the Broncos have only Idaho and Nevada left on their schedule to worry about.  BSU should run the table and could move up to number two in the Harris and USA Today polls by the end of the season.  Could a Florida or Alabama game against Boise State be possible?  We think the numbers will be fudged just enough to allow a possible rematch of the SEC championship Game for the National Championship Game.

 

Another strong possibility could leave an undefeated team in the Top 10 out of the BCS Bowl picture.  TCU could easily run the table and finish 12-0 and around number six in the final regular season poll.  The at-large rules wouldn’t guarantee the Horned Frogs an automatic at-large bid if Boise State finished undefeated and ahead of them in the BCS standings.  It would come down to one of the big bowls, like the Sugar Bowl to choose between them and a possible 10-2 Southern Cal or 11-1 Cincinnati team.

 

As of today, we are projecting Pittsburgh to edge Cincinnati for the Big East title and Oregon to beat USC in the Pac-10.  That could change, but if both the Bearcats and Trojans lose those games, they could still be selected as at-large teams over an undefeated TCU team. 

 

The PiRate Ratings have seen the top teams coming back to the pack.  Florida and Texas no longer have the big gap between them and the rest of the Top 10.  Both the Gators and Longhorns were very fortunate to come out of Saturday undefeated.

 

NCAA Top 25 For October 12, 2009
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Florida	137.4	6	0
2	Texas	133.1	6	0
3	Alabama	130.2	7	0
4	Oklahoma	129.0	3	3
5	Southern Cal	124.4	5	1
6	Va. Tech	120.5	5	2
7	T C U	117.9	6	0
8	Iowa	117.2	7	0
9	Nebraska	116.4	4	2
10	Boise St.	116.3	6	0
11	Ole Miss	116.3	4	2
12	Penn St.	116.1	6	1
13	Georgia Tech	116.1	6	1
14	Texas Tech	115.5	5	2
15	California	115.2	4	2
16	Oregon	115.1	5	1
17	Miami (Fla.)	115.0	5	1
18	Ohio St.	114.8	5	2
19	Okla. St.	114.3	5	1
20	Cincinnati	113.3	6	0
21	B  Y  U	113.1	6	1
22	Arkansas	112.9	3	3
23	Pittsburgh	112.4	6	1
24	L  S  U	112.4	5	1
25	Stanford	111.2	4	3
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Clemson	2-2	3-3	111.0
Florida State	0-3	2-4	110.0
Boston College	3-2	5-2	109.2
Wake Forest	2-2	4-3	105.5
North Carolina State	0-3	3-4	102.5
Maryland	1-2	2-5	91.5
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Virginia Tech	3-1	5-2	120.5
Georgia Tech	4-1	6-1	116.1
Miami-FL	2-1	5-1	115.0
North Carolina	0-3	4-2	106.1
Virginia	2-0	3-3	102.3
Duke	1-1	3-3	100.8

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Cincinnati	2-0	6-0	113.3
Pittsburgh	3-0	6-1	112.4
South Florida	1-1	5-1	107.2
Connecticut	1-1	4-2	105.0
West Virginia	1-0	5-1	104.5
Rutgers	0-2	4-2	100.8
Louisville	0-2	2-4	92.9
Syracuse	0-2	2-4	92.6

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Iowa	3-0	7-0	117.2
Penn State	2-1	6-1	116.1
Ohio State	3-1	5-2	114.8
Michigan	1-2	5-2	104.3
Michigan State	3-1	4-3	104.0
Wisconsin	2-2	5-2	102.0
Minnesota	2-2	4-3	100.4
Purdue	1-2	2-5	98.4
Northwestern	1-2	4-3	94.9
Indiana	1-2	4-3	92.1
Illinois	0-4	1-5	91.2

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	1-1	4-2	116.4
Kansas	1-1	5-1	108.5
Missouri	0-2	4-2	105.9
Colorado	1-1	2-4	98.0
Kansas State	2-1	4-3	97.6
Iowa State	1-2	4-3	95.8
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Texas	3-0	6-0	133.1
Oklahoma	1-1	3-3	129.0
Texas Tech	2-1	5-2	115.5
Oklahoma State	2-0	5-1	114.3
Baylor	0-2	3-3	101.6
Texas A&M	0-2	3-3	93.2

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Southern Mississippi	2-1	4-3	100.0
East Carolina	3-1	4-3	98.6
Marshall	2-1	4-3	94.7
Central Florida	1-2	3-3	93.3
U A B	2-1	2-4	88.8
Memphis	1-3	2-5	85.5
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Houston	1-1	5-1	105.6
Tulsa	2-0	4-2	101.5
U T E P	1-1	2-4	90.9
S M U	2-0	3-3	88.1
Rice	0-3	0-7	78.4
Tulane	0-3	2-4	74.8

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		4-2	109.0
Navy		5-2	101.4
Army		3-4	82.9

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	3-0	4-2	97.2
Buffalo	1-2	3-4	92.7
Ohio U	3-0	5-2	92.6
Bowling Green	2-1	3-4	88.7
Kent St.	2-1	3-4	85.1
Akron	0-3	1-5	83.9
Miami (O)	0-3	0-7	75.7
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Michigan	4-0	6-1	108.1
Northern Illinois	1-1	3-3	93.1
Toledo	2-1	4-3	90.2
Western Michigan	2-2	3-4	89.2
Ball State	0-3	0-7	80.7
Eastern Michigan	0-3	0-6	80.3

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	2-0	6-0	117.9
B Y U	3-0	6-1	113.1
Utah	2-0	5-1	106.5
Air Force	3-1	4-3	98.9
Colo. State	0-3	3-4	92.8
Wyoming	2-1	4-3	88.6
S. D. State	0-2	2-4	88.2
UNLV	0-3	2-5	85.4
New Mexico	0-2	0-6	76.4

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Southern Cal	2-1	5-1	124.4
California	1-2	4-2	115.2
Oregon	3-0	5-1	115.1
Stanford	3-2	4-3	111.2
Arizona	2-1	4-2	110.7
U C L A	0-3	3-3	104.8
Oregon St.	2-1	4-2	104.5
Arizona St.	2-1	4-2	104.0
Washington	2-2	3-4	102.1
Wash. St.	0-4	1-5	77.0

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida	4-0	6-0	134.9
Tennessee	1-2	3-3	110.6
Georgia	3-2	4-3	109.4
South Carolina	2-2	5-2	108.7
Kentucky	1-3	3-3	104.7
Vanderbilt	0-4	2-5	93.6
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Alabama	4-0	7-0	130.2
Ole Miss	1-2	4-2	116.3
Arkansas	1-3	3-3	112.9
L S U	3-1	5-1	112.4
Auburn	2-2	5-2	104.0
Mississippi State	1-2	3-4	97.7

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Troy	3-0	4-2	98.4
Arkansas State	0-2	1-4	91.5
Louisiana-Monroe	3-0	3-3	88.5
Middle Tennessee	1-1	3-3	87.9
Florida International	1-2	1-5	86.6
Louisiana	2-0	4-2	83.4
Florida Atlantic	1-1	1-4	82.6
North Texas	0-3	1-5	77.9
Western Kentucky	0-2	0-6	74.2

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	1-0	6-0	116.3
Fresno State	2-1	3-3	101.8
Nevada	2-0	3-3	99.0
Louisiana Tech	2-1	3-3	96.4
Utah State	0-2	1-5	93.2
Idaho	3-0	6-1	91.6
San Jose State	0-2	1-5	87.1
Hawaii	0-3	2-4	84.4
New Mexico State	1-2	3-4	72.7

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Tuesday, October 20		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
None
Wednesday, October 21		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Tulsa	U T E P	8.1	35-27	10
Thursday, October 22		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Florida State	NORTH CAROLINA	0.7	21-20	1
Friday, October 23		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Rutgers	ARMY	15.9	30-14	11
Saturday, October 24		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
MARSHALL	U  a  b	9.2	30-21	10
SYRACUSE	Akron	12.2	33-21	10
DUKE	Maryland	12.3	34-21	10
Georgia Tech	VIRGINIA	10.8	31-20	6
MIAMI (FL)	Clemson	7.0	24-17	8
PURDUE	Illinois	10.2	34-24	12
Central Michigan	BOWLING GREEN	16.9	34-17	7
NORTHWESTERN	Indiana	5.8	27-21	3
OHIO STATE	Minnesota	17.9	28-10	14
PITTSBURGH	South Florida	8.5	28-19	6
WEST VIRGINIA	Connecticut	2.7	20-17	6
SOUTH CAROLINA	Vanderbilt	18.6	26-7	21
NEBRASKA	Iowa State	24.6	28-3	16
EASTERN MICHIGAN	Ball State	2.1	22-20	-1
Northern Illinois	MIAMI (O)	15.1	28-13	15
Oklahoma State	BAYLOR	9.7	34-24	7
OHIO U	Kent State	10.2	30-20	13
Buffalo	WESTERN MICHIGAN	1.0	24-23	-5
Louisiana Tech	UTAH STATE	0.0	27-27 ot	3
NOTRE DAME	Boston College	3.3	34-31	6
ALABAMA	Tennessee	22.9	33-10	19
Oregon	WASHINGTON	9.8	34-24	11
TEXAS TECH	Texas A&M	25.3	42-17	21
Penn State	MICHIGAN	8.3	21-13	3
Oklahoma	KANSAS	17.5	35-17	5
Texas	MISSOURI	24.2	34-10	14
Wake Forest	NAVY	1.4	28-27	-6
COLORADO STATE	San Diego State	7.6	34-26	11
UTAH	Air Force	10.6	24-13	12
NEVADA	Idaho	10.4	38-28	0
ARIZONA	U  c  l  a	8.9	30-21	11
CALIFORNIA	Washington State	41.2	48-7	27
Temple	TOLEDO	4.3	24-20	-1
OLE MISS	Arkansas	6.4	27-21	3
CINCINNATI	Louisville	23.1	33-10	26
SOUTHERN MISS	Tulane	27.9	38-10	18
Central Florida	RICE	12.2	24-12	11
KANSAS STATE	Colorado	2.6	31-28	3
Iowa	MICHIGAN STATE	10.0	24-14	8
T  c  u	B  Y  U	1.6	26-24	4
Florida	MISSISSIPPI STATE	34.2	37-3	24
HOUSTON	S  m  u	20.5	52-31	16
Fresno State	NEW MEXICO STATE	26.4	33-7	21
L  S  U	Auburn	11.7	28-16	10
U  n  l  v	NEW MEXICO	6.5	24-17	6
SOUTHERN CAL	Oregon State	23.4	40-17	13
STANFORD	Arizona State	10.2	31-21	4
Boise State	HAWAII	28.4	42-14	26
UL-LAFAYETTE	Florida Atlantic	3.5	31-27	6
ARKANSAS STATE	Florida International	7.6	35-27	9
TROY	North Texas	23.5	34-10	20
KENTUCKY	Louisiana-Monroe	19.4	40-21	12
MIDDLE TENNESSEE	Western Kentucky	16.4	28-12	18

 

Bowl Projections

 

Bowl	Conference	Team	Conference	Team
New Mexico	MWC #4	Colorado St.	WAC #3	Fresno St.
St. Petersburg	Big East #6	Rutgers	C-USA #5	Marshall
New Orleans	Sunbelt #1	Troy	C-USA #4	East Carolina
Las Vegas	MWC #1	T C U	Pac 10 #4 or 5	Arizona St.
Poinsettia	MWC #2	Air Force	Pac 10 #6	U C L A
Hawaii	WAC	Nevada	C-USA	S M U
Little Caesar’s Pizza	Big 10 #7	Minnesota	MAC #1 or 2	Ohio U
Meineke Car Care	ACC #5-6-7	Wake Forest	Big East #3	West Va.
Emerald	Pac 10 #4 or 5	Oregon St.	ACC #5-6-7	Virginia
Music City	SEC #6 or 7	Auburn	ACC #5-6-7	North Carolina
Independence	SEC #8	Arkansas	Big 12 #7	Kansas
Eagle Bank	ACC #8	Boston College	Army/At-large	[Northwestern]
Champs Sports	ACC #4	Clemson	Big 10 #5	Wisconsin
Humanitarian	WAC #1	Idaho	MWC	Utah
Holiday	Big 12 #3	Nebraska	Pac 10 #2	California
Armed Forces	C-USA #3	Tulsa	MWC #3	B Y U
Sun	Pac 10 #3	Arizona	Big 12 #5 or Big East #2	Oklahoma
Texas	Big 12 #8	Kansas St.	Navy or C-USA	Navy
Insight.com	Big 12 #6	Missouri	Big 10 #6	Michigan St.
Chick-fil-A	SEC #5	Georgia	ACC #2	Va. Tech
Outback	SEC #3 or 4	Ole Miss	Big 10 #3	Ohio St.
Capital One	Big 10 #2	Penn St.	SEC #2	L S U
Gator	Big East #2 or Big 12 #5	Notre Dame	ACC #3	Ga. Tech
Rose	BCS Pac10	Oregon	BCS Big 10	Iowa
Sugar	BCS SEC	Southern Cal	BCS At-Large	Cincinnati
International	Big East #5	Connecticut	MAC #3	Temple
Cotton	Big 12 #2	Oklahoma St.	SEC #3 or 4	South Carolina
Papajohns.com	Big East #4	S. Florida	SEC #9	Kentucky
Liberty	SEC #6 or 7	Tennessee	C-USA #1	Houston