PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 12: November 26-30, 2009

Some Festive Games and Some Turkeys

We’ve arrived at Thanksgiving week, and the NFL season has become one of haves, have-nots, and mediocre teams.  The haves (New Orleans, Indianapolis, Minnesota, Cincinnati, San Diego, Arizona, and New England) figure to be the eight teams playing in the second round of the NFL playoffs. 

 The have-nots (Cleveland, Detroit, Tampa Bay, St. Louis, Washington, Kansas City, Oakland, Seattle, and Buffalo) have nothing to play for at this point.  To wager on these teams, one must find a reason to believe these teams’ players will have a reason to give everything they’ve got.

 The 15 mediocre teams remaining are the ones competing for the final four playoff berths.  These are the teams that must be watched carefully as the stretch drive begins.  Be careful playing against one of these teams when they are playing a have or have-not.  They can be dangerous.

 This week presents some interesting contests.  On Thanksgiving night, the Denver-New York Giants game features two of the aforementioned mediocre teams.  A match-up of two mediocre teams in essence becomes a playoff elimination game.  The loser of this game has very little chance of recovering to make the playoffs this year.

 Indianapolis plays at Houston, and the Texans find their backs up against the wall.  After losing a close Monday night game, Houston is in a must-win position.

 Arizona plays at Tennessee, and if the Titans win this one to get to 5-6, they would have to be considered a dark horse candidate to finish 9-7 and sneak in as the final AFC Playoff team.  No NFL team has ever started a season at 0-6 and finished 8-8 must less 9-7.  The 1970 Cincinnati Bengals began the season 1-6 and won seven games in a row to win the AFC Central Division at 8-6.

 Baltimore and Pittsburgh face off in a blood and guts battle that could easily be a playoff elimination game.

 The Monday night game is the best MNF game of the year.  New England plays at New Orleans.  It could easily be a preview of the Super Bowl.

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
NFC East		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
NY Giants		103.6	102.6	103.8	6-4-0	266	235
Philadelphia		103.2	104.2	103.4	6-4-0	266	204
Dallas		102.1	103.8	103.1	7-3-0	231	175
Washington		95.3	95.7	95.3	3-7-0	146	178
NFC North		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Minnesota		109.2	106.7	108.7	9-1-0	306	193
Green Bay		101.1	102.4	103.2	6-4-0	262	203
Chicago		97.9	98.4	97.6	4-6-0	206	225
Detroit		90.4	89.1	88.2	2-8-0	181	301
NFC South		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New Orleans		114.1	110.1	111.0	10-0-0	369	204
Atlanta		103.1	102.3	101.8	5-5-0	252	228
Carolina		99.0	98.4	99.0	4-6-0	193	239
Tampa Bay		90.5	91.9	87.0	1-9-0	164	294
NFC West		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Arizona		104.0	103.4	104.6	7-3-0	250	197
San Francisco		98.7	99.8	99.8	4-6-0	208	210
Seattle		93.3	95.3	93.1	3-7-0	196	233
St. Louis		88.0	91.1	91.2	1-9-0	113	270
AFC East		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New England		112.0	109.1	108.6	7-3-0	290	164
Miami		100.1	101.4	101.6	5-5-0	242	244
NY Jets		99.4	100.7	100.2	4-6-0	213	189
Buffalo		93.9	94.1	92.9	3-7-0	155	228
AFC North		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Baltimore		108.8	105.7	104.8	5-5-0	237	171
Pittsburgh		105.5	103.9	104.4	6-4-0	231	184
Cincinnati		103.4	103.8	104.6	7-3-0	215	167
Cleveland		88.2	89.3	87.2	1-9-0	115	263
AFC South		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis		111.1	108.6	108.9	10-0-0	269	157
Houston		102.4	102.0	101.6	5-5-0	232	208
Tennessee		101.0	100.1	101.6	4-6-0	209	272
Jacksonville		94.0	96.4	100.0	6-4-0	199	235
AFC West		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Diego		107.6	105.2	106.3	7-3-0	269	205
Denver		95.1	98.3	98.8	6-4-0	170	183
Kansas City		92.2	94.6	94.5	3-7-0	169	239
Oakland		91.1	91.5	93.1	3-7-0	108	234

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
HFA for Week 12 = 2.7
Vegas Line as of 6:00PM EDT Tuesday
Thursday, November 26, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
Green Bay	DETROIT	8.0	10.6	12.3	11	47 1/2
DALLAS	Oakland	13.7	15.0	12.7	13 1/2	40
DENVER	New York Giants	5.8	1.6	2.3	-7	42
Sunday, November 29, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
Indianapolis	HOUSTON	6.0	3.9	4.6	3	48
CINCINNATI	Cleveland	17.9	17.2	20.1	14	38 1/2
MINNESOTA	Chicago	14.0	11.0	13.8	10 1/2	46 1/2
PHILADELPHIA	Washington	10.6	11.2	10.8	9 1/2	40 1/2
Miami	BUFFALO	3.5	4.6	6.0	3	39 1/2
Arizona	TENNESSEE	0.3	0.6	0.3	2 1/2	46 1/2
Seattle	ST. LOUIS	2.6	1.1	-0.8	3	42 1/2
ATLANTA	Tampa Bay	15.3	13.1	17.5	12 1/2	46
NEW YORK JETS	Carolina	3.1	5.0	3.9	3	41 1/2
SAN FRANCISCO	Jacksonville	7.4	6.1	2.5	3	41 1/2
SAN DIEGO	Kansas City	18.1	13.3	15.5	13 1/2	45
BALTIMORE	Pittsburgh	6.0	4.5	3.1	2 1/2	39 1/2
Monday, November 30, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
NEW ORLEANS	New England	4.8	3.7	5.1	3	56 1/2

 

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For College Football–November 23-28, 2009

Rivalry Week

Throw The Stats Out The Window

 

This is the college football week where more money is lost by those who don’t know what they are doing and more money is made by those who do know.  Certain rivalry games are just that—real rivalries.  Others are nothing but an annual beating on a little sister.

 

There is another bigger factor to this week’s games.  It’s the bowl factor.  Several teams are still looking for one final win to become bowl eligible.  A 5-6 team hosting an 8-3 team must be looked at quite differently than a 2-9 team hosting a 4-7 team.  The desire to get to 6-6 far outweighs the desire to avoid a 10-loss season.

 

NCAA Top 25 For November 23, 2009
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Texas	137.0	11	0
2	Florida	133.1	11	0
3	Alabama	130.4	11	0
4	T C U	125.3	11	0
5	Oklahoma	122.5	6	5
6	Georgia Tech	121.5	10	1
7	Boise St.	120.8	11	0
8	Oregon	119.7	9	2
9	Va. Tech	119.5	8	3
10	Texas Tech	118.8	7	4
11	Penn St.	117.7	10	2
12	Ohio St.	117.6	10	2
13	Southern Cal	116.9	7	3
14	Nebraska	116.7	8	3
15	Stanford	116.7	7	4
16	Ole Miss	116.5	8	3
17	Miami (Fla.)	116.1	8	3
18	Pittsburgh	115.6	9	1
19	Arkansas	115.5	7	4
20	Okla. St.	115.4	9	2
21	Cincinnati	115.2	10	0
22	Iowa	114.8	10	2
23	California	114.6	8	3
24	Clemson	114.5	8	3
25	L  S  U	112.5	8	3
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

 

Let’s look at the bowl eligible teams by conference as well as the teams needing to win this week to gain bowl eligibility.

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Clemson	6-2	8-3	114.5
Boston College	4-3	7-4	107.8
Florida State	4-4	6-5	107.7
Wake Forest	2-5	4-7	104.0
North Carolina State	1-6	4-7	101.2
Maryland	1-6	2-9	92.3
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Georgia Tech	7-1	10-1	121.5
Virginia Tech	5-2	8-3	119.5
Miami-FL	5-3	8-3	116.1
North Carolina	4-3	8-3	112.4
Duke	3-4	5-6	99.2
Virginia	2-6	3-8	95.8

 

Clemson and Georgia Tech have already clinched their divisions and will meet for the ACC Championship.  Tech edges the Tigers in Atlanta in September, but Clemson gave the game away.

 

Duke needs to beat Wake Forest this week to earn their first bowl in 15 years.  David Cutcliffe is one of the most underrated coaches in the country, and he should receive some national recognition in the Coach of the Year balloting.

 

The ACC has nine automatic bowl bids, and only seven bowl eligible teams as of now.  The GMAC Bowl will need to find an at-large team to fill the vacant position, and if Duke loses this week, the Eagle Bank Bowl will look to the MAC to fill that vacant slot.

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Pittsburgh	5-0	9-1	115.6
Cincinnati	6-0	10-0	115.2
West Virginia	3-2	7-3	104.5
Connecticut	1-4	5-5	104.1
Rutgers	2-3	7-3	101.1
South Florida	3-3	7-3	103.1
Syracuse	1-5	4-7	95.6
Louisville	1-5	4-7	91.6

 

Regardless of what happens in the Backyard Brawl in Morgantown this weekend, the winner of next week’s Cincinnati-Pittsburgh game will be Big East Champions and automatic BCS Bowl representative.  Cincinnati could still conceivably earn an at-large BCS Bowl bid at 11-1, but that chance is slimmer than slim.

 

Connecticut can gain bowl eligibility with a win at home against Syracuse this weekend, and they would get another chance next week against South Florida if they faltered against the Orangemen.  If the Huskies get that win, then the Big East will have six bowl eligible teams for six guaranteed spots.  Notre Dame could still possibly steal the Sun Bowl/Gator Bowl spot that goes to a Big East team if the Irish beat Stanford, but it would be a disgrace for them to steal a post at 7-5.  We believe Stanford will take care of business and keep Notre Dame out of the bowl picture altogether this year.

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Penn State	6-2	10-2	117.7
Ohio State	7-1	10-2	117.6
Iowa	6-2	10-2	114.8
Wisconsin	5-3	8-3	105.3
Michigan State	4-4	6-6	101.5
Northwestern	5-3	8-4	99.3
Purdue	4-4	5-7	99.0
Minnesota	3-5	6-6	97.9
Michigan	1-7	5-7	96.6
Illinois	2-6	3-7	95.4
Indiana	1-7	4-8	90.9

 

The Big 10 season is basically over.  Illinois has a couple of non-conference games remaining, and the only important factor in that is they play Cincinnati this weekend.  Wisconsin goes to Hawaii in two weeks, and the Outback Bowl bid could be riding on them winning the game.

 

It is almost a foregone conclusion that a second Big 10 team, either Iowa or Penn State, will receive an at-large BCS Bowl bid.  So, there will be seven teams available for eight bowls.  The Pizza Bowl (formerly Motor City Bowl) will have to look elsewhere and may be forced to invite two MAC teams.

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	5-2	8-3	116.7
Missouri	3-4	7-4	104.7
Kansas	1-6	5-6	104.0
Kansas State	4-4	6-6	99.4
Colorado	2-5	3-8	96.8
Iowa State	3-5	6-6	94.9
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Texas	7-0	11-0	137.0
Oklahoma	4-3	6-5	122.5
Texas Tech	4-3	7-4	118.8
Oklahoma State	6-1	9-2	115.4
Texas A&M	3-4	6-5	100.6
Baylor	1-6	4-7	95.7

 

Nebraska and Texas will face off in the Big 12 Championship Game, and the Cornhuskers may have a shot at pulling off a huge upset.  We give the ‘Huskers about a 15% chance of frustrating the Longhorn offense and win ugly.  If so, then another team from the Lone Star State will benefit.

 

After beginning the season at 5-0, Kansas finds itself in a must-win situation against Missouri at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City.  They must earn The Brass Drum to earn a bowl bid.

 

The most important game though will be the Oklahoma and Oklahoma State game in Norman.  If the Cowboys beat the Sooners, they will more than likely earn an at-large BCS Bowl Bid at the expense of Boise State.  The Sooners must win to guarantee themselves a winning season.  The PiRate Ratings have had a devil of a time with OU this year.  Even at 6-5, their power rating keeps them in the top 10.  It’s hit or miss with them, as they showed how strong they are when they took Texas to the final gun.

 

If Kansas wins over Missouri, there will be 10 bowl eligible teams for eight guaranteed bowl spots (nine if Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma).  Look for Iowa State to be the odd team out of the mix.

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Florida	5-2	7-4	104.1
East Carolina	6-1	7-4	103.8
Southern Mississippi	5-2	7-4	101.0
Marshall	4-3	6-5	95.6
U A B	4-3	5-6	91.0
Memphis	1-6	2-9	82.2
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Houston	5-2	9-2	105.2
Tulsa	2-5	4-7	92.8
S M U	5-2	6-5	90.1
U T E P	2-5	3-8	87.6
Rice	2-5	2-9	79.9
Tulane	1-6	3-8	69.4

 

Welcome to the conference where everything changes weekly.  With SMU losing to Marshall, the door opened once again for Houston to ascend to the CUSA Championship Game.  A win over Rice is all that’s needed, but all of a sudden the Owls have found their way.  It could be an interesting game—at least for a half.

 

The East Division championship will be decided this weekend when Southern Miss visits East Carolina.

 

UAB can gain bowl eligibility with a win over  Central Florida, but it may be a moot point.  There are only five guaranteed bowl spots with a sixth if Army fails to earn the Eagle Bank Bowl bid.  Six CUSA teams are already bowl eligible, and the Blazers cannot compete with Marshall or SMU in fanbase.

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		6-5	106.1
Navy		8-3	103.2
Army		5-6	82.0

 

All three independents are still in the bowl mix, but as of now, only Navy is guaranteed a spot.  Notre Dame must beat Stanford to get to 7-5 and earn priority over every other possible at-large team.  At 6-6, they more than likely will find themselves out of the picture as there will be enough seven-win teams to fill the at-large spots.

 

Army must beat Navy to earn the Eagle Bank Bowl bid.  Navy has won seven in a row in this series, so it should be one of the best in this series in many years.

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	7-0	9-2	103.8
Buffalo	2-5	4-7	92.1
Ohio U	6-1	8-3	91.9
Bowling Green	5-2	6-5	91.0
Kent St.	4-3	6-5	85.0
Akron	1-6	2-9	81.4
Miami (O)	1-7	1-11	76.3
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Michigan	7-0	9-2	108.5
Northern Illinois	5-2	7-4	95.2
Western Michigan	4-3	5-6	88.2
Toledo	3-4	5-6	87.5
Ball State	1-6	1-10	81.0
Eastern Michigan	0-7	0-11	74.3

 

Central Michigan has already clinched the West Division, and the Chippewas will play the winner of this week’s Ohio U-Temple game in the MAC Championship Game. 

 

Two teams will be playing for that important seventh win this week.  Bowling Green hosts Toledo, and Kent State hosts Buffalo.

 

The MAC gets three guaranteed bowl bids and will get a fourth if Duke fails to beat Wake Forest and earn an Eagle Bank Bowl bid.   That’s where the Bowling Green and Kent State games come into play.  Both could earn bowl bids with wins, and one could even play in the Pizza Bowl against another MAC team.

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	7-0	11-0	125.3
B Y U	6-1	9-2	111.6
Utah	6-1	9-2	107.2
Air Force	5-3	7-5	100.7
Wyoming	3-4	5-6	87.6
UNLV	2-5	4-7	86.8
Colo. State	0-7	3-8	86.4
S. D. State	2-5	4-7	85.2
New Mexico	1-6	1-10	77.9

 

TCU will manhandle New Mexico this week and then hope that either Texas A&M or Nebraska can upset Texas, Florida State can upset Florida, or Auburn can upset Alabama.  The Horned Frogs need two of the big three teams ahead of them to lose.  The loser of the SEC Championship Game means that either Texas must lose this week or next or the winner of the SEC Championship Game must lose this week.  If one of these events happen, then TCU will be playing for the national championship in January.  It’s hard to believe that this program was once as weak as Syracuse, Vanderbilt, and Washington State are today.

 

The one team still trying to gain bowl eligibility is Wyoming.  The Cowboys must beat Colorado State in Ft. Collins this week, and these two teams truly put the “war” in “Border War.”  It’s not a given that Wyoming can top the 3-8 Rams.

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oregon	7-1	9-2	119.7
Southern Cal	4-3	7-3	116.9
Stanford	6-3	7-4	116.7
California	5-3	8-3	114.6
Oregon St.	6-2	8-3	112.1
Arizona	4-3	6-4	111.4
U C L A	3-5	6-5	106.1
Arizona St.	2-6	4-7	102.1
Washington	2-5	3-7	97.3
Wash. St.	0-8	1-10	71.1

 

For the first time ever, the winner of the “Civil War” game between Oregon and Oregon State will earn the Rose Bowl bid.  The Ducks and Beavers are one of the best rivalry games in college football, and I’d love to have a 50-yard line seat next week in Eugene.

 

The Pac-10 receives six automatic bowl bids, but there are seven bowl eligible teams.  It looks like UCLA will miss out this year unless they can upset USC.  Arizona must beat either Arizona State or USC to get to seven wins.  If both the Bruins and Wildcats win seven games, then expect to see the Pac-10 receiving an extra bid to a western bowl.

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida	8-0	11-0	133.1
Tennessee	3-4	6-5	110.7
Georgia	4-4	6-5	108.2
South Carolina	3-5	6-5	108.2
Kentucky	3-4	7-4	104.6
Vanderbilt	0-8	2-10	93.1
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Alabama	7-0	11-0	130.4
Ole Miss	4-3	8-3	116.5
Arkansas	3-4	7-4	115.5
L S U	4-3	8-3	112.5
Auburn	3-4	7-4	105.3
Mississippi State	2-5	4-7	100.9

 

This is a monster conference!  With Alabama and Florida headed to Atlanta to play what will be the “Game Of The Decade” (assuming both win this week), it is a given that the loser will still play in a BCS Bowl.  It isn’t completely out of the realm that if the SEC Championship game goes to overtime or is decided in regulation by a point, and if Texas loses to either Texas A&M or Nebraska, that Alabama and Florida could meet in a rematch for all the marbles.

 

With 10 bowl eligible teams, the SEC will place all 10 in bowls.  There will be a lot of last minute shuffling because there isn’t much difference between team number three and team number 10.

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Troy	7-0	8-3	98.4
Middle Tennessee	6-1	8-3	94.8
Louisiana-Monroe	5-2	6-5	88.2
Arkansas State	1-5	2-8	86.6
U. of Louisiana	4-3	6-5	84.3
Florida Atlantic	3-3	3-7	83.2
Florida International	3-4	3-8	81.7
North Texas	1-6	2-9	76.0
Western Kentucky	0-6	0-10	73.3

 

This league is almost assured of earning a second bowl bid this year.  Troy will play in the New Orleans Bowl, but Middle Tennessee will get an at-large bid somewhere.  Both Louisiana-Lafayette and Louisiana-Monroe can get to seven wins, but it will take big upsets for both to do so.  ULL plays Troy, while ULM plays MTSU.

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	6-0	11-0	120.8
Nevada	7-0	8-3	108.7
Fresno State	6-2	7-4	99.0
Louisiana Tech	2-5	3-8	97.2
Utah State	2-5	3-8	91.2
Idaho	4-3	7-4	90.3
Hawaii	3-5	5-6	85.1
San Jose State	0-6	1-9	82.1
New Mexico State	1-5	3-8	70.0

 

Here’s where things should get interesting.  Boise State is a win over Nevada away from being 12-0 and the proverbial odd team out.  If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, the Cowboys will steal the last BCS Bowl bid at the Broncos’ expense.  Then, watch for the United States Government to put their messy fingers into the college football pigpen. 

 

Before we get into this mess, Boise State has to beat Nevada.  The Wolf Pack is not a pushover, and it could easily take 50 or more points to win this game.

 

Of course, if the Sooners win over OSU, then it looks favorable for BSU getting into the field.  Then, they would be competing against a one or two-loss Big East team and maybe a two-loss Georgia Tech team.

 

If Boise State moves up, then the WAC is safe with four bowls for four bowl eligible teams.

 

Hawaii could still sneak into the mix, but they would have to beat Navy and Wisconsin.  We don’t see that happening.

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Tuesday, November 24		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
WESTERN MICHIGAN	Ball State	10.2	31-21	10
Thursday, November 26		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Texas	TEXAS A&M	32.9	54-21	21
Friday, November 27		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Rutgers	LOUISVILLE	6.5	28-21	5
CINCINNATI	Illinois	22.5	37-14	25
CENTRAL MICHIGAN	Northern Illinois	16.3	28-12	12
AKRON	Eastern Michigan	9.8	34-24	13
BOWLING GREEN	Toledo	6	40-34	11
COLORADO STATE	Wyoming	1.8	23-21	0
Buffalo	KENT STATE	3.9	28-24	-1
Temple	OHIO U	8.9	30-21	3
Alabama	AUBURN	22.6	33-10	12
Nebraska	COLORADO	16.9	24-7	12
TULSA	Memphis	13.6	38-24	12
Pittsburgh	WEST VIRGINIA	8.6	28-19	3
BOISE STATE	Nevada	15.4	45-30	16
Saturday, November 28		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
CONNECTICUT	Syracuse	11.5	28-16	12
Wake Forest	DUKE	2.1	24-22	-1
North Carolina	N. C. STATE	8.5	26-17	12
Clemson	SOUTH CAROLINA	3.8	31-27	6
Ole Miss	MISSISSIPPI STATE	13.1	34-20	6
OKLAHOMA	Oklahoma State	9.6	38-28	5
T C U	New Mexico	50.9	51-0	43
EAST CAROLINA	Southern Miss	5.8	34-28	6
Central Florida	ALABAMA-BIRMINGHAM	10.4	38-28	5
ARKANSAS STATE	North Texas	13.3	34-21	8
S M U	Tulane	23.7	41-17	18
Marshall	U T E P	5.0	35-30	7
Arizona	ARIZONA STATE	6.8	27-20	6
FLORIDA	Florida State	27.9	38-10	21
Missouri  (n)	Kansas	0.7	31-30	3
Boston College	MARYLAND	12.5	34-21	10
Miami-Fl	SOUTH FLORIDA	10.6	28-17	4
Virginia Tech	VIRGINIA	21.2	38-17	15
FLORIDA ATLANTIC	Western Kentucky	12.9	27-14	16
Middle Tennessee	UL-MONROE	3.6	31-27	4
B  Y  U	Utah	7.1	34-27	4
IDAHO	Utah State	2.1	34-32	6
Texas Tech (n)	Baylor	23.1	42-19	18
WASHINGTON	Washington State	28.9	42-13	19
Tennessee	KENTUCKY	3.1	27-24	-1
L  S  U	Arkansas	0.0	27-27 ot	3
Troy	UL-LAFAYETTE	11.1	35-24	9
GEORGIA TECH	Georgia	15.6	44-28	16
HOUSTON	Rice	27.8	49-21	29
SAN JOSE STATE	New Mexico St.	15.1	35-20	7
STANFORD	Notre Dame	13.6	42-28	9
U  N  L  V	San Diego State	4.6	28-23	5
SOUTHERN CAL	U  c  l  a	13.5	28-14	10
Navy	HAWAII	14.1	45-31	12

 

 

Bowl Speculations

Bowl	Conference	Team	Conference	Team
New Mexico	MWC #4	Wyoming	WAC #3	Nevada
St. Petersburg	Big East #6	Connecticut	C-USA #5	Central Fla
New Orleans	Sunbelt #1	Troy	C-USA #4	Southern Miss
Las Vegas	MWC #1	B Y U	Pac 10 #4 or 5	Stanford
Poinsettia	MWC #2	Utah	Pac 10 #6	Arizona
Hawaii	WAC	Fresno St.	C-USA	Houston
Little Caesar’s Pizza	Big 10 #7	(Bowling Green)	MAC #1 or 2	Temple
Meineke Car Care	ACC #5-6-7	Boston College	Big East #3	West Virginia
Emerald	Pac 10 #4 or 5	Oregon State	ACC #5-6-7	Florida State
Music City	SEC #6 or 7	Kentucky	ACC #5-6-7	North Carolina
Independence	SEC #8	Georgia	Big 12 #7	Kansas State
Eagle Bank	ACC #8	Duke	Army/C-USA	(Marshall)
Champs Sports	ACC #4	Miami-Fl	Big 10 #5	Northwestern
Humanitarian	WAC #1	Idaho	MWC	(Kent State)
Holiday	Big 12 #3	Nebraska	Pac 10 #2	Southern Cal
Armed Forces	C-USA #3	S M U	MWC #3	Air Force
Sun	Pac 10 #3	California	Big 12 #5 or Big East #2	Oklahoma
Texas	Big 12 #8	Texas A&M	Navy or C-USA	NAVY
Insight.com	Big 12 #6	Missouri	Big 10 #6	Minnesota
Chick-fil-A	SEC #5	Auburn	ACC #2	Va. Tech
Outback	SEC #3 or 4	Tennessee	Big 10 #3	Wisconsin
Capital One	Big 10 #2	Iowa	SEC #2	Ole Miss
Gator	Big East #2 or Big 12 #5	Cincinnati	ACC #3	Ga. Tech
Rose	BCS Pac10	Stanford	BCS Big 10	OHIO STATE
Sugar	BCS SEC	(Florida)	BCS At-Large	Boise State
International	Big East #5	Rutgers	MAC #3	Ohio U
Cotton	Big 12 #2	Nebraska	SEC #3 or 4	L S U
Papajohns.com	Big East #4	South Florida	SEC #9	South Carolina
Liberty	SEC #6 or 7	Arkansas	C-USA #1	East Carolina
Alamo	Big 10 #4	Texas Tech	Big 12 #4	Michigan St.
Fiesta	BCS Big 12	(Penn State)	BCS At-Large	T C U
Orange	BCS ACC	Clemson	BCS At-Large	Pittsburgh
G M A C	ACC #9	(Middle Tenn)	MAC	Central Mich.
National Championship	*** BCS #1 ***	Alabama	*** BCS #2 ***	Texas

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 11: November 19-23, 2009

Toilet Bowl Heads Schedule

 

Seldom do we get a chance to see the reverse of the Super Bowl in a given year, but this week presents the football fan with the Toilet Bowl.  The worst team in the NFC faces the worst team in the AFC when Cleveland plays Detroit.  The game features a Browns’ team that has trouble crossing midfield much less scoring against a Lions’ team that alternates from weak-to-weak whether they play like crap on offense or defense (or both).

 

In other games, the Indianapolis Colts could find it quite difficult keeping their undefeated mark intact.  Expect another tough game for Peyton Manning and company, when they visit Baltimore.  By now, the Colts returning to Baltimore shouldn’t be much of a story.

 

Several games this week will go a long way in deciding playoff contenders.  The losers in the Atlanta-New York Giants, Philadelphia-Chicago, Green Bay-San Francisco, and San Diego-Denver games will be on the outside, looking in.  Additionally, The Jets face a must-win game at New England, while both the Texans and Jaguars need to take care of business at home against the Titans and Bills respectively. 

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
NFC East		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
NY Giants		103.8	102.1	102.3	5-4-0	232	204
Dallas		103.3	104.7	103.5	6-3-0	224	169
Philadelphia		103.8	104.7	104.6	5-3-0	219	153
Washington		93.0	92.6	93.4	2-6-0	113	154
NFC North		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Minnesota		106.5	105.6	107.3	8-1-0	271	184
Green Bay		100.7	102.0	101.2	5-4-0	232	179
Chicago		98.1	99.0	97.7	4-5-0	186	201
Detroit		90.7	89.4	88.9	1-8-0	143	264
NFC South		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New Orleans		112.4	109.1	109.8	9-0-0	331	197
Atlanta		102.9	102.5	101.8	5-4-0	221	194
Carolina		100.5	98.8	98.7	4-5-0	176	215
Tampa Bay		92.2	93.0	92.3	1-8-0	157	256
NFC West		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Arizona		104.0	104.6	104.2	6-3-0	229	184
San Francisco		99.1	99.3	98.6	4-5-0	184	180
Seattle		96.0	96.4	96.2	3-6-0	187	198
St. Louis		88.0	90.4	91.6	1-8-0	100	249
AFC East		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New England		111.5	107.8	108.7	6-3-0	259	150
NY Jets		99.9	100.8	100.2	4-5-0	199	158
Miami		98.6	100.6	99.3	4-5-0	218	227
Buffalo		94.1	94.8	93.7	3-6-0	140	210
AFC North		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Baltimore		108.9	105.4	104.7	5-4-0	222	154
Pittsburgh		108.2	105.4	105.8	6-3-0	207	157
Cincinnati		106.2	105.3	106.6	7-2-0	198	147
Cleveland		87.9	90.1	89.1	1-8-0	78	225
AFC South		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis		111.0	108.3	109.9	9-0-0	252	142
Houston		103.8	102.9	103.0	5-4-0	215	188
Tennessee		99.6	99.4	99.4	3-6-0	189	255
Jacksonville		93.8	96.6	98.8	5-4-0	181	220
AFC West		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Diego		104.5	102.8	105.1	6-3-0	237	202
Denver		98.2	100.5	101.0	6-3-0	167	151
Kansas City		89.5	93.5	93.1	2-7-0	142	215
Oakland		88.3	90.3	91.0	2-7-0	88	217

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
HFA for Week 11 = 2.5
Vegas Line as of 5:30PM EDT Tuesday
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
CAROLINA	Miami	4.4	0.7	1.9	3	43
Sunday, November 22, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
DETROIT	Cleveland	5.3	1.8	2.3	3 1/2	38 1/2
JACKSONVILLE	Buffalo	2.2	4.3	7.6	8 1/2	42 1/2
Pittsburgh	KANSAS CITY	16.2	9.4	10.2	10	40 1/2
BALTIMORE	Indianapolis	0.4	-0.4	-2.7	1	44 1/2
N Y GIANTS	Atlanta	3.4	2.0	3.1	6 1/2	46
GREEN BAY	San Francisco	4.1	5.2	5.1	6 1/2	42 1/2
MINNESOTA	Seattle	13.0	11.7	13.6	11	46
DALLAS	Washington	11.7	12.2	11.1	11	41 1/2
New Orleans	TAMPA BAY	17.7	13.6	15.0	11	51
Arizona	ST. LOUIS	13.5	11.7	10.1	9	46 1/2
NEW ENGLAND	N Y Jets	14.1	9.5	11.0	10	45
Cincinnati	OAKLAND	15.4	12.5	13.1	9 1/2	36
San Diego	DENVER	3.8	-0.2	1.6	NL	NL
Philadelphia	CHICAGO	2.4	2.3	2.4	3	45
Monday, November 23, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
HOUSTON	Tennessee	6.7	6.1	5.2	4 1/2	47 1/2

 

Playoff Projections

 

NFC

 

Atlanta at Arizona

Dallas at New York Giants

 

New Orleans vs. Lower Remaining Seed

Minnesota vs. Higher Remaining Seed

 

AFC

 

Houston at Cincinnati

Pittsburgh at New England

 

Indianapolis vs. Lower Remaining Seed

San Diego vs. Higher Remaining Seed

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For College Football–November 17-21, 2009

Down The Stretch They Come

 

November has certainly already seen a host of upsets in the college football world, and we here at the PiRate Ratings believe big surprises are still to come.  With six undefeated teams (Florida, Alabama, Texas, TCU, Cincinnati, and Boise State), we see at least two falling before the bowl season.  Obviously, either Alabama or Florida must lose. The last time five teams finished the regular season winning every game was 1951, when Maryland, Tennessee, Michigan State, San Francisco, and Princeton did the trick.

 

The first wave of rivalry games begin this week, topped off by “The Big Game” in Palo Alto between Stanford and Cal.  The Cardinal now have a shot at winning the Pac-10 and earning a trip to Pasadena to face Ohio State.

 

Speaking of the Buckeyes, Ohio State ventures to the Big House to take on Michigan.  The Wolverines must win to gain bowl eligibility, and a loss will send several dozen more Maize & Blue fans to www.firerrod.com.

 

NCAA Top 25 For November 16, 2009
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Texas	136.9	10	0
2	Florida	131.9	10	0
3	Alabama	129.9	9	0
4	Oklahoma	129.5	6	4
5	T C U	125.0	10	0
6	Georgia Tech	121.5	10	1
7	Boise St.	120.2	10	0
8	Oregon	119.9	8	2
9	Va. Tech	118.6	7	3
10	Stanford	118.0	7	3
11	Ohio St.	117.9	9	2
12	Nebraska	117.5	7	3
13	Okla. St.	117.0	8	2
14	Southern Cal	116.9	7	3
15	Ole Miss	116.7	7	3
16	Miami (Fla.)	116.1	7	3
17	Pittsburgh	115.6	9	1
18	Clemson	115.4	7	3
19	Cincinnati	115.2	10	0
20	Penn St.	115.1	9	2
21	Iowa	115.1	9	2
22	Arkansas	115.0	6	4
23	California	113.3	7	3
24	L  S  U	112.3	8	2
25	Texas Tech	112.3	6	4
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Clemson	5-2	7-3	115.4
Boston College	4-2	7-3	110.6
Florida State	3-4	5-5	109.3
Wake Forest	2-5	4-7	104.0
North Carolina State	1-5	4-6	102.1
Maryland	1-5	2-8	90.7
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Georgia Tech	7-1	10-1	121.5
Virginia Tech	4-2	7-3	118.6
Miami-FL	4-3	7-3	116.1
North Carolina	3-3	7-3	109.6
Duke	3-3	5-5	99.2
Virginia	2-5	3-7	94.9

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Pittsburgh	5-0	9-1	115.6
Cincinnati	6-0	10-0	115.2
West Virginia	3-2	7-3	104.5
Rutgers	2-2	7-2	104.2
Connecticut	1-4	4-5	103.1
South Florida	2-3	6-3	102.9
Syracuse	0-5	3-7	92.5
Louisville	1-4	4-6	91.8

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Ohio State	6-1	9-2	117.9
Penn State	5-2	9-2	115.1
Iowa	5-2	9-2	115.1
Wisconsin	5-2	8-2	106.1
Michigan State	4-3	6-5	104.1
Northwestern	4-3	7-4	98.5
Minnesota	3-4	6-5	97.6
Purdue	3-4	4-7	96.8
Michigan	1-6	5-6	96.3
Illinois	2-6	3-7	95.4
Indiana	1-6	4-7	93.1

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	4-2	7-3	117.5
Missouri	2-4	6-4	104.6
Kansas	1-5	5-5	104.1
Kansas State	4-3	6-5	98.6
Colorado	2-4	3-7	95.2
Iowa State	3-4	6-5	95.0
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Texas	6-0	10-0	136.9
Oklahoma	4-2	6-4	129.5
Oklahoma State	5-1	8-2	117.0
Texas Tech	3-3	6-4	112.3
Baylor	1-5	4-6	101.2
Texas A&M	2-4	5-5	95.1

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
East Carolina	5-1	6-4	103.8
Southern Mississippi	4-2	6-4	100.9
Central Florida	4-2	6-4	98.1
Marshall	3-3	5-5	95.5
U A B	4-2	5-5	91.0
Memphis	1-5	2-8	83.0
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Houston	4-2	8-2	104.4
Tulsa	2-4	4-6	92.9
S M U	5-1	6-4	90.2
U T E P	2-4	3-7	89.9
Rice	1-5	1-9	77.3
Tulane	1-5	3-7	75.4

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		6-4	107.1
Navy		8-3	103.2
Army		3-7	81.9

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	6-0	8-2	101.4
Ohio U	5-1	7-3	91.3
Bowling Green	4-2	5-5	90.6
Buffalo	1-5	3-7	90.5
Kent St.	4-2	5-5	87.4
Akron	1-5	2-8	81.8
Miami (O)	1-6	1-10	77.9
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Michigan	6-0	8-2	107.1
Northern Illinois	5-1	7-3	95.8
Western Michigan	4-3	5-6	88.2
Toledo	2-4	4-6	86.3
Ball State	1-5	1-9	82.4
Eastern Michigan	0-6	0-10	75.5

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	6-0	10-0	125.0
B Y U	5-1	8-2	110.9
Utah	5-1	8-2	105.8
Air Force	5-2	7-4	101.3
Colo. State	0-6	3-7	88.5
Wyoming	3-3	5-5	87.9
UNLV	2-5	4-7	86.8
S. D. State	2-4	4-6	86.6
New Mexico	0-6	0-10	75.8

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oregon	6-1	8-2	119.9
Stanford	6-2	7-3	118.0
Southern Cal	4-3	7-3	116.9
California	4-3	7-3	113.3
Arizona	4-2	6-3	111.2
Oregon St.	5-2	7-3	109.5
U C L A	2-5	5-5	105.6
Arizona St.	2-5	4-6	102.6
Washington	2-5	3-7	97.3
Wash. St.	0-7	1-9	73.7

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida	8-0	10-0	131.9
Tennessee	2-4	5-5	111.3
Georgia	4-3	6-4	109.2
South Carolina	3-5	6-5	108.2
Kentucky	2-4	6-4	103.6
Vanderbilt	0-7	2-9	92.5
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Alabama	7-0	10-0	129.9
Ole Miss	3-3	7-3	116.7
Arkansas	2-4	6-4	115.0
L S U	4-2	8-2	112.3
Auburn	3-4	7-4	105.3
Mississippi State	2-4	4-6	101.4

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Troy	6-0	7-3	97.6
Middle Tennessee	5-1	7-3	92.4
Louisiana-Monroe	5-1	6-4	89.3
Arkansas State	1-4	2-7	89.0
Florida Atlantic	3-2	3-6	84.0
U. of Louisiana	3-3	5-5	83.2
Florida International	3-4	3-7	82.9
North Texas	1-6	2-8	76.1
Western Kentucky	0-6	0-10	73.3

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	5-0	10-0	120.2
Nevada	6-0	7-3	107.1
Fresno State	5-2	6-4	99.7
Louisiana Tech	2-4	3-7	96.5
Utah State	2-4	3-7	91.8
Idaho	4-3	7-4	90.3
Hawaii	2-5	4-6	85.0
San Jose State	0-5	1-8	82.2
New Mexico State	1-4	3-7	71.6

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Wednesday, November 18		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Central Michigan	BALL STATE	22.2	38-16	20
Buffalo	MIAMI (O)	10.1	27-17	3
Thursday, November 19		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
OKLAHOMA STATE	Colorado	24.8	38-13	21
Friday, November 20		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
BOWLING GREEN	Akron	11.5	35-23	15
TOLEDO	E  M  U	13.8	41-27	15
Boise State	UTAH STATE	25.4	35-10	25
Saturday, November 21		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Ohio State	MICHIGAN	18.1	35-17	16
Northern Illinois	OHIO U	1.5	26-24	-1
CLEMSON	Virginia	23.8	34-10	19
Wisconsin	NORTHWESTERN	4.6	28-23	7
IOWA	Minnesota	20.5	35-14	14
SOUTH FLORIDA	Louisville	14.1	24-10	12
Rutgers	SYRACUSE	8.7	30-21	12
Purdue	INDIANA	1.0	35-34	0
FLORIDA STATE	Maryland	21.6	40-18	18
BOSTON COLLEGE	North Carolina	4.0	21-17	3
VIRGINIA TECH	North Carolina State	19.8	34-14	21
MISSOURI	Iowa State	12.6	34-21	9
TENNESSEE	Vanderbilt	21.8	28-6	19
GEORGIA	Kentucky	8.6	33-24	6
TEMPLE	Kent State	17.0	38-21	13
T  c  u	WYOMING	34.1	44-10	26
ARKANSAS	Mississippi State	16.6	45-28	10
NOTRE DAME	Connecticut	7.0	35-28	6
Oregon State	WASHINGTON STATE	33.1	40-7	25
Penn State	MICHIGAN STATE	8.0	31-23	5
U  C  L  A	Arizona State	6.0	27-21	5
STANFORD	California	7.2	30-23	7
OLE MISS	L  s  u	7.4	31-24	1
B  Y  U	Air Force	12.6	27-14	7
EAST CAROLINA	U  a  b	15.8	37-21	10
NEBRASKA	Kansas State	22.4	31-9	15
Oklahoma	TEXAS TECH	13.2	34-21	2
Baylor	TEXAS A&M	3.1	27-24	-5
U  t  e  p	RICE	10.1	37-27	5
UTAH	San Diego State	22.2	35-13	21
FRESNO STATE	La. Tech	6.5	31-24	11
Colorado State	NEW MEXICO	9.7	24-14	8
Oregon	ARIZONA	5.4	31-26	4
MARSHALL	S  m  u	8.3	31-23	4
SOUTHERN MISS	Tulsa	11.0	31-20	9
TEXAS	Kansas	36.3	50-14	29
MIAMI (FLA)	Duke	19.9	37-17	17
HOUSTON	Memphis	24.4	55-31	23
CENTRAL FLORIDA	Tulane	25.7	40-14	20
Nevada	NEW MEXICO ST.	32.8	50-17	22
SAN JOSE ST.	Hawaii	0.7	28-27	-3
FLORIDA	Florida Int’l	52.0	52-0	41
Army	NORTH TEXAS	2.3	24-22	0
TROY	Florida Atlantic	16.6	34-17	14
UL-Monroe	UL-LAFAYETTE	3.6	27-23	2
MIDDLE TENNESSEE	Arkansas State	6.4	28-22	13

 

Bowl Speculating

 

Ohio State has become the second team to know where they will be bowling this year and the first team to clinch a BCS Bowl Bid.  However, the weekend may have muddied up the bowl projections more than helped clear things up.

 

The Atlantic Coast Conference

Georgia Tech continues to impress every week, and the Yellow Jackets have clinched the Coastal Division championship.  Clemson needs only to beat Virginia to earn the Atlantic Division title.  It is our opinion that Clemson will beat Georgia Tech in a rematch for the ACC Championship and Orange Bowl Bid.  At 11-2, the Yellow Jackets could still gain an at-large BCS Bowl Bid, but it would have to come at the expense of a 13-0 Boise State team.  With Wake Forest being ousted from bowl talk, it looks like the ACC will come up at least one team short and possibly two.  Duke must beat Wake Forest to get to six wins and make it to their first bowl in 15 years.

 

1. Orange Bowl—Clemson

2. Chick-fil-A—Virginia Tech

3. Gator—Georgia Tech

4. Champs Sports—Miami (Fl)

5. Music City—North Carolina

6. Meineke Car Care—Boston College

7. Emerald—Florida State

8. Eagle Bank—Duke

9. GMAC—No Team Available

 

The Big East

Cincinnati just escaped against West Virginia, while Pittsburgh handled Notre Dame.  The Panthers game with the Mountaineers in the “Backyard Brawl” actually doesn’t matter this year.  The winner of the Pitt-Cincinnati game wins the championship.  We’ll go with Coach Dave Wannstedt’s Panthers.  Cincinnati could qualify as an at-large BCS team at 11-1, but we don’t think the big bowls will take the Bearcats.  That might be the final straw for Brian Kelly in the Queen City.  He may bolt for South Bend or even Ann Arbor.

 

1. Orange Bowl—Pittsburgh

2. Sun—Cincinnati

3. Meineke Car Care—Rutgers

4. Papa John’s—South Florida

5. International—West Virginia

6. St. Petersburg—Connecticut

 

The Big Ten

Ohio State clinched the Big Ten Championship and Rose Bowl bid with the overtime win over Iowa.  It now looks like the second best team in this league will earn a last-minute BCS at-large bid.  If Iowa wins this week against Minnesota, the Hawkeyes should get that bid.

 

Michigan will not be bowl eligible after losing at home to Ohio State this weekend, so if the Big 10 gets a second BCS bowl team, they will come up one short.

 

1. Rose-OHIO STATE (accepted bid)

2. Fiesta—Iowa

3. Capital One—Wisconsin

4. Outback—Penn State

5. Alamo—Michigan State

6. Champs Sports—Minnesota

7. Insight—Northwestern

8. Pizza—No team available

 

The Big 12

Texas should quickly dispose of Kansas and Texas A&M to reach the Big 12 Title game, but a possible game against Nebraska could be quite interesting.  For now, we will stick with the notion that the Longhorns will run the table and make it to the National Championship Game.  If the Cornhuskers win out, they should still garner the Cotton Bowl bid if they lose to Texas.  With Iowa State winning its sixth game, and the only chance this conference has of getting a second team in the BCS being a Nebraska upset of Texas, we believe there will be one excess team.  However, that extra team will be 6-6 and out of luck.

 

1. National Championship—Texas

2. Cotton–Nebraska

3. Holiday—Oklahoma

4. Alamo—Oklahoma State

5. Sun—Missouri

6. Insight—Texas Tech

7. Independence—Kansas State

8. Texas—Texas A&M

 

Iowa State out of luck at 6-6

 

Conference USA

As Chester A. Riley would have said, “What a revoltin’ development this is!”  Houston’s loss to Central Florida has thrust SMU into first place in the West Division.  If Coach June Jones’ Mustangs beat Marshall this week, they are in the CUSA Championship Game.  Central Florida is now thickly in the East Division race, but it is now a four-team battle.  If UAB beats East Carolina and UCF, the Blazers would win the division title.  Who would have ever thought that on November 16, the CUSA Championship Game could still be a battle between SMU and UAB?

 

1. Liberty—East Carolina

2. Hawaii—Houston

3. Armed Forces—S M U

4. New Orleans—Southern Miss

5. St. Petersburg—Central Florida

 

Marshall & UAB at 6-6 will miss out on bowl bids

 

Independents

There’s no confusion here.  Navy has earned a Texas Bowl bid.  Army has failed to earn the Eagle Bank Bowl bid that is reserved for them this year.  Notre Dame’s BCS bowl hopes are gone and barring wins over both Connecticut and Stanford, the Irish won’t earn the Sun or Gator Bowl bids that they could receive.  However, with one more win, they become the top non-BCS at-large bowl hopeful.

 

1. Texas—Navy

2. Eagle Bank—Notre Dame (at-large)

 

Mid-American

The MAC will benefit from all the bowls that will need to seek at-large participants.  This league receives three automatic bowl bids, but we expect five schools to go bowling.  Central Michigan played in the Motor City Bowl last year (now the Pizza Bowl), so the Chippewas will probably be sent south to Mobile.

 

The Pizza Bowl will not have a Big 10 representative, and while they’d love to lure Notre Dame, the Irish will go to the highest bidder.  That will force them to invite a second MAC team.

 

1. G M A C—Central Michigan

2. Pizza—Temple

3. International—Ohio U

4. Humanitarian—Northern Illinois (at-large)

5. Pizza—Bowling Green (at-large)

 

Mountain West

T C U plays at Wyoming this weekend, and the Cowboys will be ready to give them all they can handle.  We think TCU will win by double digits, but it is one of those ambush situations.  A home finale with winless New Mexico will be little more than a scrimmage.

 

BYU and Utah close the regular season with their rivalry match, and the winner should wind up in Vegas.  Air Force has wrapped up the fourth bowl bid, and Wyoming is one win away from sneaking in as the fifth.  We expect them to beat Colorado State and get it.

 

1. Fiesta—T C U

2. Las Vegas—Utah

3. Poinsettia—B Y U

4. Armed Forces—Air Force

5. New Mexico—Wyoming

6. Humanitarian—No team available

 

Pac-10

This is another interesting race.  If Arizona beats Oregon this week, and Stanford beats California, then Arizona, Oregon, Oregon State, and Stanford will be tied for first with two conference losses.  Arizona would then win the Pac-10 and get the Rose Bowl bid.  However, the Wildcats must finish at Arizona State and at Southern Cal, and we see them failing to get to 7-2.  If Arizona beats Oregon, and Stanford beats Cal, then the Cardinal would be heading to Pasadena, unless Oregon State could win at Oregon “The Civil War.”  At 7-2, Oregon State gets the tiebreaker over Stanford.

 

1. Rose—Stanford

2. Holiday—Oregon

3. Sun—Southern Cal

4. Las Vegas—Arizona

5. Emerald—Oregon State

6. Poinsettia—California

 

U C L A will finish 6-6 and not receive a bid

 

Southeastern

Alabama will practice with Chattanooga this week, and then finish the regular season at Auburn.  It could be interesting for a half, but the Tide will head to Atlanta at 12-0.  Florida also has a breather with Florida International, but they have a tough finale with Florida State.  We believe the Seminoles have a small shot at pulling off the big upset.

 

With two BCS bowl bids virtually a certainty, the SEC will send 10 teams to bowls this year.

 

1. National Championship—Alabama

2. Sugar—Florida

3. Capital One—Ole Miss

4. Cotton—L S U

5. Outback—Tennessee

6. Chick-fil-A—Auburn

7. Music City—Georgia

8. Liberty—Arkansas

9. Independence—South Carolina

10. Papa John’s—Kentucky

 

Sunbelt

Troy has just about clinched the conference championship, so they will receive the sole automatic bowl bid.  Middle Tennessee has already reached the magic seven win mark, so the Blue Raiders will get an at-large bid.

 

1. New Orleans—Troy

2. G M A C—Middle Tennessee (at-large)

 

Western Athletic

Boise State cannot chalk up a perfect regular season just yet.  The Broncos still must face the most potent offense in the nation.  Nevada must play at Bronco Stadium, so Boise State should win and finish 13-0.  We strongly believe that while the BCS Bowls would rather invite a two-loss team from one of the big six conferences, they will have their arms pulled and be highly coerced into inviting a second non-BCS team into the BCS Bowl structure.  It’s funny how the threat of a Justice Department investigation can determine bowl participants.

 

1. Sugar—Boise State

2. Hawaii—Fresno State

3. New Mexico—Nevada

4. Humanitarian—Idaho

 

• * = At-large selection
• ALL CAPS AND BOLD = ACCEPTED BID

Bowl	Team	vs.	Team
New Mexico	Wyoming	vs.	Nevada
St. Petersburg	Connecticut	vs.	Central Fla
New Orleans	Troy	vs.	Southern Miss
Las Vegas	Utah	vs.	Arizona
Poinsettia	B Y U	vs.	California
Hawaii	Fresno St.	vs.	Houston
Little Caesar’s Pizza	Bowling Green *	vs.	Temple
Meineke Car Care	Boston College	vs.	Rutgers
Emerald	Oregon State	vs.	Florida State
Music City	Georgia	vs.	North Carolina
Independence	South Carolina	vs.	Kansas State
Eagle Bank	Duke	vs.	Notre Dame *
Champs Sports	Miami-Fl	vs.	Northwestern
Humanitarian	Idaho	vs.	Northern Illinois *
Holiday	Oklahoma	vs.	Oregon
Armed Forces	S M U	vs.	Air Force
Sun	Southern Cal	vs.	Missouri
Texas	Texas A&M	vs.	NAVY
Insight.com	Texas Tech	vs.	Minnesota
Chick-fil-A	Auburn	vs.	Va. Tech
Outback	Tennessee	vs.	Penn State
Capital One	Wisconsin	vs.	Ole Miss
Gator	Cincinnati	vs.	Ga. Tech
Rose	Stanford	vs.	OHIO STATE
Sugar	Florida	vs.	Boise State
International	West Virginia	vs.	Ohio U
Cotton	Nebraska	vs.	L S U
Papajohns.com	South Florida	vs.	Kentucky
Liberty	Arkansas	vs.	East Carolina
Alamo	Oklahoma St.	vs.	Michigan St.
Fiesta	Iowa	vs.	T C U
Orange	Clemson	vs.	Pittsburgh
G M A C	Middle Tennessee *	vs.	Central Mich.
National Championship	Alabama	vs.	Texas

 

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 10: November 12-16, 2009

Introducing NFL Playoff Projections

 

If you are a college football fan, you probably have seen multiple Internet sites showing weekly bowl projections.  Maybe, you’ve even seen ours.  Why not have NFL playoff projections?  Unlike college football, the NFL playoff rules are always known.  The best two division winners in both leagues receive byes, while the third best division winners host the lowest qualifying wildcards, and the fourth best division winners host the wildcard with the better records.

 

So, beginning today, we will list our projections.  This will not be one of those “if the playoffs started today lists; it will be projections based on where we believe every team will finish.

 

Let’s start with the AFC.  In the East, we believe New England already has clinched the division title and will finish with the second best record among the four division winners.

 

In the South, we believe Indianapolis could win the division by five or more games and secure home field advantage.

 

The North is still very much up for grabs, but the way Pittsburgh is playing these days, they could very well finish 12-4 or better. 

 

In the West, Denver may be swooning once again.  San Diego’s running game has abandoned them, but the passing of Phillip Rivers may be enough to overtake the Broncos.

 

Cincinnati should win enough games to grab one wildcard spot, but the other spot should go down to the final week before it is decided.  Baltimore has a tough schedule, and we believe the Ravens will fall a game short.  Denver and the New York Jets both have great shots at 10 wins.  We’ll give the edge to the Jets.

 

So, as of today, we see the Jets visiting Pittsburgh, and the Bengals visiting San Diego in the opening playoff weekend.  The higher remaining seed will play at New England the following week, and the lower remaining seed will play at Indianapolis.

 

In the NFC, Dallas sure looks like the cream of the East.  Don’t count out the Eagles or Giants, but the Cowboys could easily finish 12-4.

 

New Orleans already has the South race in hand.  Whether they can go 16-0 is no matter, because at 13-3, they should still have the best record in the conference.

 

Minnesota has a three-game lead on the Bears and Packers, and only another Brett Favre injury could prevent the Vikings from winning the North Division.

 

Arizona may have to fight off a late rush by San Francisco or Seattle, but we believe the Cardinals will repeat in the West.

 

Philadelphia and the Giants will jockey it out with one team winning 10 and the other winning nine.  For now, we’ll go with the Eagles as the lucky 10-win team.  We think Atlanta will win 10 games as well and take the top Wildcard spot.

 

That leaves Philadelphia visiting Arizona and Atlanta playing at Dallas in the opening round of the playoffs.  The higher remaining seed will play at Minnesota, while the lower remaining seed goes to New Orleans.

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
Bitmap NFC East		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Dallas		104.4	106.2	105.6	6-2-0	217	152
Philadelphia		103.8	104.7	104.6	5-3-0	219	153
NY Giants		103.8	102.1	102.3	5-4-0	232	204
Washington		93.0	92.6	93.4	2-6-0	113	154
NFC North		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Minnesota		106.5	105.8	106.6	7-1-0	244	174
Green Bay		99.6	99.5	100.3	4-4-0	215	172
Chicago		98.6	98.2	99.9	4-4-0	180	191
Detroit		90.7	88.2	86.7	1-7-0	133	237
NFC South		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New Orleans		114.1	112.5	111.2	8-0-0	303	174
Atlanta		104.3	104.2	104.0	5-3-0	202	166
Carolina		99.1	98.2	97.5	3-5-0	148	196
Tampa Bay		91.4	91.9	91.1	1-7-0	134	231
NFC West		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Arizona		103.8	104.3	103.3	5-3-0	198	164
San Francisco		98.6	98.6	98.1	3-5-0	174	174
Seattle		96.2	96.6	96.6	3-5-0	167	167
St. Louis		86.3	87.5	91.1	1-7-0	77	221
AFC East		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New England		111.5	108.8	108.7	6-2-0	225	115
NY Jets		101.5	102.9	101.4	4-4-0	177	134
Miami		99.4	102.8	99.7	3-5-0	193	204
Buffalo		96.3	96.2	96.0	3-5-0	123	169
AFC North		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Pittsburgh		109.4	106.8	106.7	6-2-0	195	139
Baltimore		108.8	105.6	104.6	4-4-0	206	154
Cincinnati		105.0	105.2	105.5	6-2-0	180	135
Cleveland		88.0	89.4	88.2	1-7-0	78	209
AFC South		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis		111.0	108.7	108.0	8-0-0	217	108
Houston		103.8	102.9	103.0	5-4-0	215	188
Tennessee		97.4	97.0	98.2	2-6-0	148	238
Jacksonville		92.2	94.6	97.3	4-4-0	157	198
AFC West		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Diego		103.7	102.3	104.1	5-3-0	206	179
Denver		99.3	103.1	103.4	6-2-0	150	124
Oakland		89.3	90.8	91.7	2-6-0	78	201
Kansas City		88.5	91.9	91.2	1-7-0	126	205

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
HFA for Week 10 = 2.4
Vegas Line as of 8:30PM EDT Tuesday
Thursday, November 12, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
SAN FRANCISCO	Chicago	2.4	3.0	0.6	3	43 1/2
Sunday, November 15, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
NEW YORK JETS	Jacksonville	11.7	10.7	6.5	7	40
Denver	WASHINGTON	3.9	8.1	7.6	3 1/2	36 1/2
PITTSBURGH	Cincinnati	6.8	4.0	3.6	7	41 1/2
TENNESSEE	Buffalo	3.5	3.2	4.6	6 1/2	40 1/2
MINNESOTA	Detroit	18.2	20.0	22.3	16 1/2	47 1/2
New Orleans	ST. LOUIS	25.4	22.6	17.7	13 1/2	50
Atlanta	CAROLINA	2.8	3.6	4.1	2	44 1/2
MIAMI	Tampa Bay	10.4	13.3	11.0	10	44
OAKLAND	Kansas City	3.2	1.3	2.9	2	36 1/2
ARIZONA	Seattle	10.0	10.1	9.1	8 1/2	47
SAN DIEGO	Philadelphia	2.3	0.0	1.9	2	47
Dallas	GREEN BAY	2.4	4.3	2.9	3	47 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS	New England	1.9	2.3	1.7	3	49 1/2
Monday, November 16, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
Baltimore	CLEVELAND	18.4	13.8	14.0	10 1/2	40

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For College Football–November 10-15, 2009

Can This Week Be As Wacky As Last Week?

 

It happens every year; it usually happens in November, so it shouldn’t have come as a surprise.  After two thirds of the college season was in the books, teams all of a sudden started acting inconsistently.  Teams that couldn’t catch a break started catching breaks.  Teams that caught all the breaks stopped catching them.

 

Teams that had been given up for dead showed a new life.  Teams that consistently did something that made themselves very predictable (to the wagering public) did something completely different.

 

Iowa’s loss was coming.  You cannot win games every week by pulling them out in the final minutes.  When quarterback Ricky Stanzi went down with an injury, there was going to be no last minute heroics this time.

 

All of a sudden, Ron Zook’s Illinois team looks like they were supposed to look like in August.  Stranger things have happened, but it isn’t impossible that they could finish 6-6 after starting 1-6.  It isn’t probable either, because the Illini still have to play Cincinnati and Fresno State outside the Big 10 as well as Northwestern this week to close out conference play.

 

The two really consistent teams are the two BCS bowl-crashing wannabes.  TCU and Boise State both look invincible at the moment.  Both have tricky games this week.  The Horned Frogs get a one-loss Utah team, while Boise has to worry with in-state rival and bowl eligible Idaho.

 

NCAA Top 25 For November 9, 2009
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Texas	136.5	9	0
2	Florida	132.9	9	0
3	Alabama	129.2	8	0
4	Oklahoma	127.5	5	4
5	T C U	123.8	9	0
6	Southern Cal	120.4	7	2
7	Boise St.	119.9	9	0
8	Oregon	119.7	7	2
9	Georgia Tech	118.9	9	1
10	Ohio St.	118.4	8	2
11	Va. Tech	118.0	6	3
12	Okla. St.	117.0	7	2
13	Nebraska	116.9	6	3
14	Penn St.	116.8	8	2
15	Miami (Fla.)	116.7	7	2
16	Cincinnati	115.5	9	0
17	Pittsburgh	115.5	8	1
18	Stanford	115.0	6	3
19	Iowa	114.6	9	1
20	Clemson	114.2	6	3
21	Ole Miss	114.1	6	3
22	Tennessee	113.9	5	4
23	L  S  U	113.6	7	2
24	Arkansas	113.5	5	4
25	California	112.6	6	3
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Clemson	4-2	6-3	114.2
Boston College	3-2	6-3	110.8
Florida State	2-4	4-5	108.2
Wake Forest	2-4	4-6	105.1
North Carolina State	1-4	4-5	103.3
Maryland	1-4	2-7	91.3
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Georgia Tech	6-1	9-1	118.9
Virginia Tech	3-2	6-3	118.0
Miami-FL	4-2	7-2	116.7
North Carolina	2-3	6-3	109.0
Duke	3-2	5-4	101.8
Virginia	2-3	3-6	94.7

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Cincinnati	5-0	9-0	115.5
Pittsburgh	5-0	8-1	115.5
South Florida	2-2	6-2	105.3
West Virginia	3-1	7-2	104.2
Connecticut	1-4	4-5	103.1
Rutgers	1-2	6-2	101.8
Syracuse	0-4	3-6	92.2
Louisville	0-4	3-6	92.1

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Ohio State	5-1	8-2	118.4
Penn State	4-2	8-2	116.8
Iowa	5-1	9-1	114.6
Wisconsin	4-2	7-2	105.1
Michigan State	3-3	5-5	103.9
Minnesota	3-4	5-5	97.9
Northwestern	3-3	6-4	97.7
Michigan	1-5	5-5	97.3
Purdue	3-3	4-6	97.0
Illinois	2-5	3-6	96.2
Indiana	1-5	4-6	91.4

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	3-2	6-3	116.9
Kansas	1-4	5-4	104.7
Missouri	1-4	5-4	102.8
Kansas State	4-2	6-4	100.4
Colorado	2-3	3-6	95.7
Iowa State	2-4	5-5	94.5
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Texas	6-0	9-0	136.5
Oklahoma	3-2	5-4	127.5
Oklahoma State	4-1	7-2	117.0
Texas Tech	3-2	6-3	112.3
Baylor	1-4	4-5	101.6
Texas A&M	2-3	5-4	99.1

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Southern Mississippi	3-2	5-4	100.7
East Carolina	4-1	5-4	99.8
Marshall	3-2	5-4	95.7
Central Florida	3-2	5-4	95.3
U A B	3-2	4-5	90.3
Memphis	1-4	2-7	83.7
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Houston	4-1	8-1	106.2
Tulsa	2-3	4-5	96.9
U T E P	2-3	3-6	90.1
S M U	4-1	5-4	90.0
Rice	0-5	0-9	76.7
Tulane	1-4	3-6	75.5

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		6-3	107.7
Navy		7-3	102.6
Army		3-6	82.2

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	5-0	7-2	99.2
Buffalo	1-4	3-6	91.7
Ohio U	4-1	6-3	90.1
Bowling Green	3-2	4-5	89.3
Kent St.	4-2	5-5	87.4
Akron	1-4	2-7	84.0
Miami (O)	1-5	1-9	79.2
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Michigan	5-0	7-2	106.7
Northern Illinois	4-1	6-3	96.9
Western Michigan	3-3	4-6	87.5
Toledo	2-3	4-5	86.7
Ball State	1-4	1-8	81.3
Eastern Michigan	0-5	0-9	76.2

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	5-0	9-0	123.8
B Y U	4-1	7-2	112.2
Utah	5-0	8-1	106.5
Air Force	4-2	6-4	100.0
Colo. State	0-6	3-7	88.5
UNLV	2-4	4-6	88.1
S. D. State	2-3	4-5	87.8
Wyoming	2-3	4-5	86.7
New Mexico	0-5	0-9	74.5

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Southern Cal	4-2	7-2	120.4
Oregon	5-1	7-2	119.7
Stanford	5-2	6-3	115.0
California	3-3	6-3	112.6
Arizona	4-1	6-2	111.9
Oregon St.	4-2	6-3	108.1
U C L A	1-5	4-5	103.5
Arizona St.	2-4	4-5	102.8
Washington	2-4	3-6	98.7
Wash. St.	0-6	1-8	75.8

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida	7-0	9-0	132.9
Tennessee	2-3	5-4	113.9
Georgia	3-3	5-4	109.2
South Carolina	3-4	6-4	106.7
Kentucky	1-4	5-4	102.9
Vanderbilt	0-6	2-8	93.2
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Alabama	6-0	9-0	129.2
Ole Miss	2-3	6-3	114.1
L S U	4-2	7-2	113.6
Arkansas	2-4	5-4	113.5
Auburn	3-3	7-3	105.3
Mississippi State	2-3	4-5	101.6

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Troy	6-0	7-2	99.1
Middle Tennessee	4-1	6-3	91.8
Louisiana-Monroe	4-1	5-4	90.6
Arkansas State	1-3	2-6	89.7
U. of Louisiana	3-2	5-4	83.8
Florida Atlantic	2-2	2-6	83.3
Florida International	2-4	2-7	82.8
North Texas	1-5	2-7	76.2
Western Kentucky	0-5	0-9	72.0

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	4-0	9-0	119.9
Nevada	5-0	6-3	103.9
Fresno State	5-1	6-3	102.4
Louisiana Tech	2-4	3-6	95.7
Utah State	1-4	2-7	91.2
Idaho	4-2	7-3	90.6
Hawaii	1-5	3-6	84.8
San Jose State	0-4	1-7	82.8
New Mexico State	1-3	3-6	71.8

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Tuesday, November 10		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
BUFFALO	Ohio U	4.3	28-24	-2
Wednesday, November 11		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
CENTRAL MICHIGAN	Toledo	23.0	40-17	19
Thursday, November 5		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Bowling Green	MIAMI (O)	7.6	31-23	7
NORTHERN ILLINOIS	Ball State	18.8	38-19	21
South Florida	RUTGERS	0.1	24-24 ot	0
Friday, November 6		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Temple	AKRON	12.5	27-14	9
CINCINNATI	West Virginia	14.3	35-21	14
Saturday, November 7		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Boston College	VIRGINIA	13.1	27-14	8
ILLINOIS	Northwestern	1.5	21-19	2
LOUISVILLE	Syracuse	2.9	20-17	5
OHIO STATE	Iowa	7.3	21-14	7
WISCONSIN	Michigan	10.8	41-30	14
PENN STATE	Indiana	28.9	41-12	21
Michigan State	PURDUE	3.9	31-27	2
Florida State	WAKE FOREST	0.1	20-20 ot	0
Clemson	NORTH CAROLINA ST.	7.9	31-23	12
Georgia Tech	DUKE	14.4	38-24	13
Kentucky	VANDERBILT	7.2	20-13	8
Texas	BAYLOR	32.2	45-13	23
Virginia Tech	MARYLAND	24.0	34-10	19
Western Michigan	EASTERN MICHIGAN	8.8	26-17	10
OLE MISS	Tennessee	3.2	27-24	2
B y u	NEW MEXICO	35.0	42-7	28
Nebraska	KANSAS	9.2	21-12	5
U  a  b	MEMPHIS	3.9	31-27	4
IOWA STATE	Colorado	1.8	26-24	7
U  c  l  a	WASHINGTON ST.	24.7	38-13	14
BOISE STATE	Idaho	32.3	45-13	25
S M U	U t e p	2.9	35-34	11
PITTSBURGH	Notre Dame	10.8	28-17	10
SOUTHERN CAL	Stanford	8.4	28-20	8
CALIFORNIA	Arizona	3.7	28-24	0
OREGON	Arizona State	20.4	34-14	20
KANSAS STATE	Missouri	0.6	24-23	2
OKLAHOMA	Texas A&M	31.4	38-7	14
UTAH STATE	San Jose St.	11.1	35-24	8
NEVADA	Fresno State	4.5	35-30	-1
RICE	Tulane	3.7	35-31	-1
AIR FORCE	U n l v	14.9	31-16	16
OREGON STATE	Washington	12.4	33-21	12
Florida	SOUTH CAROLINA	23.2	35-13	17
Alabama	MISSISSIPPI STATE	24.6	35-10	14
Southern Miss	MARSHALL	2.0	26-24	-2
Miami-Fl	NORTH CAROLINA	4.7	28-23	4
OKLAHOMA STATE	Texas Tech	7.7	40-32	4
T C U	Utah	20.3	30-10	16
GEORGIA	Auburn	6.9	31-24	2
Houston	CENTRAL FLORIDA	7.9	38-30	8
L S U	Louisiana Tech	20.6	31-10	22
SAN DIEGO STATE	Wyoming	4.3	24-20	4
HAWAII	New Mexico State	17.0	45-28	13
FLORIDA ATLANTIC	Arkansas St.	9.8	31-21	0
UL-MONROE	Western Ky	21.3	38-17	24
ARKANSAS	Troy	17.9	45-27	12
FLA. INT’L	North Texas	9.6	34-24	7
MIDDLE TENNESSEE	UL-Lafayette	11.0	35-24	12
Sunday, November 15		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
TULSA	East Carolina	0.1	27-27 ot	1

 

Bowl Projections

CAPS/Bold = Excepted Bid

Italics = at-large invitation

 

Bowl	Conference		Conference	Team	Team
New Mexico	MWC #4	vs.	WAC #3	San Diego St.	Nevada
St. Petersburg	Big East #6	vs.	C-USA #5	Middle Tennessee	Southern Miss
New Orleans	Sunbelt #1	vs.	C-USA #4	Troy	East Carolina
Las Vegas	MWC #1	vs.	Pac 10 #4 or 5	B Y U	Stanford
Poinsettia	MWC #2	vs.	Pac 10 #6	Utah	U C L A
Hawaii	WAC	vs.	C-USA	Fresno St.	Marshall
Little Caesar’s Pizza	Big 10 #7	vs.	MAC #1 or 2	Minnesota	Northern Illinois
Meineke Car Care	ACC #5-6-7	vs.	Big East #3	Boston Coll	Rutgers
Emerald	Pac 10 #4 or 5	vs.	ACC #5-6-7	Oregon State	Wake Forest
Music City	SEC #6 or 7	vs.	ACC #5-6-7	Georgia	North Carolina
Independence	SEC #8	vs.	Big 12 #7	South Carolina	Missouri
Eagle Bank	ACC #8	vs.	Army/C-USA	Ohio U	Central Florida
Champs Sports	ACC #4	vs.	Big 10 #5	Va. Tech	Northwestern
Humanitarian	WAC #1	vs.	MWC	Idaho	Bowling Green
Holiday	Big 12 #3	vs.	Pac 10 #2	Nebraska	Arizona
Armed Forces	C-USA #3	vs.	MWC #3	S M U	Air Force
Sun	Pac 10 #3	vs.	B E #2 or B12 #5	California	Oklahoma
Texas	Big 12 #8	vs.	Navy or C-USA	Texas A&M	NAVY
Insight.com	Big 12 #6	vs.	Big 10 #6	Kansas State	Michigan State
Chick-fil-A	SEC #5	vs.	ACC #2	Ole Miss	Miami-Fl
Outback	SEC #3 or 4	vs.	Big 10 #3	Tennessee	Penn State
Capital One	Big 10 #2	vs.	SEC #2	Iowa	L S U
Gator	B E #2 or B12 #5	vs.	ACC #3	Cincinnati	Ga. Tech
Rose	BCS Pac10	vs.	BCS Big 10	Oregon	Ohio State
Sugar	BCS SEC	vs.	BCS At-Large	Alabama	Boise State
International	Big East #5	vs.	MAC #3	West Va.	Temple
Cotton	Big 12 #2	vs.	SEC #3 or 4	Oklahoma State	Auburn
Papajohns.com	Big East #4	vs.	SEC #9	S. Florida	Kentucky
Liberty	SEC #6 or 7	vs.	C-USA #1	Arkansas	Houston
Alamo	Big 10 #4	vs.	Big 12 #4	Wisconsin	Texas Tech
Fiesta	BCS Big 12	vs.	BCS At-Large	Southern Cal	T C U
Orange	BCS ACC	vs.	BCS At-Large	Clemson	Pittsburgh
G M A C	ACC #9	vs.	MAC	Notre Dame	Central Michigan
National Championship	*** BCS #1 ***	vs.	*** BCS #2 ***	Florida	Texas

 

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week Nine: November 8-9, 2009

Five Key Intra-Divisional Games Highlight Week

 

Week nine finds five key intra-divisional games as well as three other inter-divisional spectaculars.  Cincinnati beat the Ravens in Baltimore earlier in the season, and if the Bengals complete the sweep, Baltimore will find its playoff hopes beginning to dim.

 

Houston visits Indianapolis, and if the Colts win, they will be up four games at the halfway point of the season.  Should the Texans find a way to pull off the upset, Coach Gary Kubiak’s squad will climb to the top of the Wildcard bubble.

 

New England hosts Miami, and the Patriots are coming off a bye week.  A New England win will virtually clinch the AFC East title, but a Dolphin win throws the race open once again.

 

Carolina visits New Orleans in a game that looks like another easy win for the Saints.  However, the Panthers won at Arizona last week, and they could climb back in the playoff race with an upset.

 

Dallas visits Philadelphia, and to the winner goes first place in the NFC East.  It should be an exciting Sunday night game with scoring aplenty.

 

The other three big games are Arizona at Chicago, San Diego at New York (Giants), and Pittsburgh at Denver on Monday night.  All six of these teams are jockeying for playoff positioning.

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
Bitmap NFC East		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Philadelphia		104.6	105.0	104.9	5-2-0	203	133
NY Giants		104.2	102.8	102.0	5-3-0	212	183
Dallas		103.6	104.8	104.7	5-2-0	197	136
Washington		93.0	92.9	92.4	2-5-0	96	123
NFC North		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Minnesota		106.5	105.9	106.6	7-1-0	244	174
Green Bay		102.8	102.5	102.8	4-3-0	187	134
Chicago		100.9	100.8	101.5	4-3-0	159	150
Detroit		91.3	89.6	89.0	1-6-0	113	205
NFC South		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New Orleans		114.6	112.5	112.0	7-0-0	273	154
Atlanta		104.3	104.2	104.1	4-3-0	171	149
Carolina		98.6	96.7	97.8	3-4-0	128	166
Tampa Bay		88.2	89.7	87.2	0-7-0	96	203
NFC West		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Arizona		101.5	102.3	101.3	4-3-0	157	143
San Francisco		101.1	100.7	102.1	3-4-0	147	140
Seattle		95.6	96.9	96.7	2-5-0	135	147
St. Louis		86.3	87.9	90.6	1-7-0	77	221
AFC East		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New England		111.7	108.3	108.8	5-2-0	198	98
NY Jets		101.5	103.3	100.9	4-4-0	177	134
Miami		99.2	102.5	102.1	3-4-0	176	177
Buffalo		96.3	96.2	98.5	3-5-0	123	169
AFC North		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Baltimore		110.5	107.1	107.1	4-3-0	199	137
Pittsburgh		107.3	104.3	105.9	5-2-0	167	129
Cincinnati		103.3	103.4	104.3	5-2-0	163	128
Cleveland		88.0	90.4	85.5	1-7-0	78	209
AFC South		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis		111.7	108.2	109.9	7-0-0	197	91
Houston		103.1	102.0	103.4	5-3-0	198	168
Tennessee		94.9	94.9	94.3	1-6-0	114	211
Jacksonville		92.4	94.6	96.8	3-4-0	133	177
AFC West		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Diego		103.3	101.9	104.0	4-3-0	185	159
Denver		101.4	105.3	104.9	6-1-0	140	96
Oakland		89.3	90.6	89.9	2-6-0	78	201
Kansas City		88.3	92.2	88.3	1-6-0	105	181

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
HFA for Week 9 = 2.3
Vegas Line as of 5:30PM EDT Tuesday
Sunday, November 8, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
JACKSONVILLE	Kansas City	6.4	4.7	10.8	6	42
Baltimore	CINCINNATI	4.9	1.4	0.5	3	44
INDIANAPOLIS	Houston	10.9	8.5	8.8	9	47 1/2
ATLANTA	Washington	13.6	13.6	14.0	10 ½	41 1/2
Green Bay	TAMPA BAY	12.3	10.5	13.3	10	43 1/2
CHICAGO	Arizona	1.7	0.8	2.5	3	44
NEW ENGLAND	Miami	14.8	8.1	9.0	10 1/2	46 1/2
NEW ORLEANS	Carolina	18.3	18.1	16.5	13 1/2	51 1/2
SEATTLE	Detroit	6.6	9.6	10.0	10	43
SAN FRANCISCO	Tennessee	8.5	8.1	10.1	4	41
NEW YORK GIANTS	San Diego	3.2	3.2	0.3	5	47 1/2
PHILADELPHIA	Dallas	3.3	2.5	2.5	3	47 1/2
Monday, November 9, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
Pittsburgh	DENVER	3.6	-3.3	-1.3	3	39 1/2

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For College Football–November 3-7, 2009

Several Big Games To Highlight Weekend

PiRate Ratings Go 9-2 Against Spread

 

Several key games dot the college football schedule this week, and because so many could go either way, we think it’s time to start paring the number of college games we select.  After a 9-2 against the spread, the PiRates are counting their booty.  Our two week record against the spread is 17-3-1, and our percentage for the season is now 63.5% (54-31-2).  We will be playing with Vegas’s money the rest of the year, so we will guarantee ourselves a winning season and play fewer games from here on out, unless we see too many easy ones to pass up.

 

That 9-2 record was really nice, but when we see just how close we came to going 11-0, it is almost a tad disappointing.  We had Indiana +17, and for so long that game looked good until Iowa scored four quick touchdowns.  The other loss was on a 10-point teaser, and two of the three games had already won when a late Brett Favre touchdown pass moved the total score from 57 to 64 points (The 10-point teaser line was 57 ½).  We won with Minnesota +3 vs. Green Bay, Georgia Tech -11 vs. Vanderbilt, Illinois +7 vs. Michigan, Louisville -165 money line vs. Arkansas St., Houston -3 vs. Buffalo, Baltimore -3 ½ vs. Denver, North Carolina +16 ½ vs. Va. Tech, and three teasers.

 

NCAA Top 25 For October 26, 2009
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Texas	136.3	8	0
2	Florida	133.4	8	0
3	Oklahoma	129.8	5	3
4	Alabama	128.9	7	0
5	Oregon	121.9	7	1
6	T C U	121.8	8	0
7	Southern Cal	120.9	6	2
8	Boise St.	119.7	8	0
9	Georgia Tech	119.2	8	1
10	Penn St.	118.9	8	1
11	Iowa	117.9	9	0
12	Va. Tech	117.9	5	3
13	Ohio St.	116.4	7	2
14	Okla. St.	116.0	6	2
15	California	115.8	6	2
16	Cincinnati	115.3	8	0
17	Pittsburgh	115.3	7	1
18	Nebraska	115.1	5	3
19	Ole Miss	114.1	5	3
20	L  S  U	113.9	7	1
21	Miami (Fla.)	113.7	6	2
22	Tennessee	113.6	4	4
23	Arkansas	112.8	4	4
24	Clemson	112.7	5	3
25	Stanford	112.3	5	3
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
Even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Clemson	3-2	5-3	112.7
Boston College	3-2	6-3	110.8
Florida State	2-3	4-4	109.7
Wake Forest	2-3	4-5	104.8
North Carolina State	0-4	3-5	103.2
Maryland	1-3	2-6	91.4
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Georgia Tech	5-1	8-1	119.2
Virginia Tech	3-2	5-3	117.9
Miami-FL	3-2	6-2	113.7
North Carolina	1-3	5-3	108.3
Duke	3-1	5-3	102.5
Virginia	2-2	3-5	98.2

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Cincinnati	4-0	8-0	115.3
Pittsburgh	4-0	7-1	115.3
South Florida	2-2	6-2	105.3
West Virginia	2-1	6-2	104.1
Connecticut	1-3	4-4	103.6
Rutgers	1-2	6-2	101.8
Syracuse	0-3	3-5	92.4
Louisville	0-3	3-5	92.4

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Penn State	4-1	8-1	118.9
Iowa	5-0	9-0	117.9
Ohio State	4-1	7-2	116.4
Wisconsin	3-2	6-2	105.0
Michigan State	3-3	4-5	102.6
Minnesota	3-3	5-4	100.1
Michigan	1-4	5-4	98.3
Purdue	2-3	3-6	95.6
Northwestern	2-3	5-4	94.9
Illinois	1-5	2-6	94.0
Indiana	1-4	4-5	91.5

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	2-2	5-3	115.1
Kansas	1-3	5-3	105.9
Missouri	1-3	5-3	104.9
Kansas State	3-2	5-4	98.9
Iowa State	2-3	5-4	95.5
Colorado	1-3	2-6	95.0
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Texas	5-0	8-0	136.3
Oklahoma	3-1	5-3	129.8
Oklahoma State	3-1	6-2	116.0
Texas Tech	3-2	6-3	112.3
Texas A&M	2-2	5-3	99.8
Baylor	0-4	3-5	99.0

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team			Conf.	Overall		Rating
Southern Mississippi			3-2	5-4		100.7
East Carolina			4-1	5-3		99.9
Marshall			3-2	5-4		95.7
Central Florida			3-2	5-3		95.5
U A B			3-2	3-5		88.9
Memphis			1-4	2-6		84.0
West Division
Team			Conf.	Overall		Rating
Houston			3-1	7-1		106.0
Tulsa			2-2	4-4		97.1
U T E P			2-2	3-5		91.8
S M U			3-1	4-4		90.3
Rice			0-4	0-8		76.4
Tulane			0-4	2-6		73.8
Independents
Team		Overall			Rating
Notre Dame		6-2			109.4
Navy		6-3			100.6
Army		3-5			82.7

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	4-0	6-2	100.2
Buffalo	1-3	3-5	92.4
Ohio U	4-1	6-3	90.1
Kent St.	4-1	5-4	88.9
Bowling Green	2-2	3-5	88.6
Akron	0-4	1-7	82.5
Miami (O)	1-4	1-8	77.4
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Michigan	5-0	7-2	106.7
Northern Illinois	3-1	5-3	94.4
Western Michigan	3-3	4-5	88.4
Toledo	2-3	4-5	86.7
Ball State	1-4	1-8	81.3
Eastern Michigan	0-4	0-8	79.2

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	4-0	8-0	121.8
B Y U	3-1	6-2	109.8
Utah	4-0	7-1	106.3
Air Force	4-2	5-4	99.5
S. D. State	2-2	4-4	89.8
Colo. State	0-5	3-6	89.8
Wyoming	2-2	4-4	89.1
UNLV	1-4	3-6	86.8
New Mexico	0-4	0-8	74.7

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oregon	5-0	7-1	121.9
Southern Cal	3-2	6-2	120.9
California	3-2	6-2	115.8
Stanford	4-2	5-3	112.3
Arizona	3-1	5-2	111.4
Oregon St.	3-2	5-3	105.4
U C L A	0-5	3-5	103.5
Arizona St.	2-3	4-4	102.8
Washington	2-3	3-5	98.7
Wash. St.	0-5	1-7	76.3

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida	6-0	8-0	133.4
Tennessee	2-3	4-4	113.6
Georgia	3-3	4-4	109.2
South Carolina	3-3	6-3	107.6
Kentucky	1-4	4-4	102.9
Vanderbilt	0-5	2-7	92.7
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Alabama	5-0	8-0	128.9
Ole Miss	2-3	5-3	114.1
L S U	4-1	7-1	113.9
Arkansas	1-4	4-4	112.8
Auburn	3-3	6-3	105.3
Mississippi State	2-3	4-5	101.6

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Troy	5-0	6-2	99.1
Arkansas State	1-2	2-5	92.3
Middle Tennessee	3-1	5-3	89.7
Louisiana-Monroe	3-0	3-4	88.1
Florida International	2-3	2-6	84.9
Florida Atlantic	2-2	2-5	84.7
Louisiana	2-2	4-4	81.2
North Texas	1-4	2-6	78.7
Western Kentucky	0-4	0-8	71.7

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	3-0	8-0	119.7
Fresno State	4-1	5-3	102.4
Nevada	4-0	5-3	100.4
Louisiana Tech	2-3	3-5	95.9
Utah State	1-3	2-6	93.7
Idaho	4-1	7-2	90.6
San Jose State	0-3	1-6	86.3
Hawaii	0-5	2-6	82.0
New Mexico State	1-3	3-6	71.8

 

Reminder: Don’t use these ratings against the spread when you pick games.  We rely on several other factors when we pick games against the spread. For our weekly picks, go to www.piratings.webs.com and select “Picks vs. Vegas Line.”  We’re a great bargain at just $5 per week.   This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Tuesday, November 3		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
BUFFALO	Bowling Green	6.5	28-21	0
Thursday, November 5		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
NORTHERN ILLINOIS	Eastern Michigan	18.2	35-17	23
TEMPLE	Miami-OH	25.5	33-7	19
Virginia Tech	EAST CAROLINA	15.0	27-12	10
Friday, November 6		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Boise State	LOUISIANA TECH	20.5	34-13	22
Saturday, November 7		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
MICHIGAN STATE	Western Michigan	16.7	34-17	14
CINCINNATI	Connecticut	14.7	24-9	18
PITTSBURGH	Syracuse	25.9	35-9	24
IOWA	Northwestern	26.2	36-10	23
MINNESOTA	Illinois	9.3	35-26	11
WEST VIRGINIA	Louisville	14.7	35-20	15
N. C. STATE	Maryland	14.8	35-20	7
GEORGIA TECH	Wake Forest	17.4	41-24	17
NORTH CAROLINA	Duke	7.8	31-23	7
Wisconsin	INDIANA	10.5	34-23	11
ARKANSAS	South Carolina	8.2	35-27	6
Oklahoma State	IOWA STATE	17.8	35-17	6
MISSOURI	Baylor	8.9	21-12	11
FLORIDA	Vanderbilt	44.0	47-3	37
Brigham Young	WYOMING	17.7	31-13	11
NOTRE DAME	Navy	12.3	38-26	9
S M U	Rice	16.6	34-17	24
U t e p	TULANE	15.3	42-27	6
ALABAMA	L s u	18.2	28-10	9
TEXAS	Central Florida	44.8	52-7	32
Kent State	AKRON	3.9	24-20	6
AIR FORCE	Army	19.8	30-10	21
Kansas	KANSAS STATE	5.0	27-22	1
Oklahoma	NEBRASKA	11.7	24-12	2
PENN STATE	Ohio State	5.5	16-10	5
T c u	SAN DIEGO STATE	29.0	42-13	25
Fresno State	IDAHO	8.8	30-21	6
UTAH	New Mexico	34.6	42-7	33
ARIZONA	Washington State	38.3	55-17	27
CALIFORNIA	Oregon State	13.4	27-14	6
U C L A	Washington	7.8	35-27	4
Oregon	STANFORD	6.9	31-24	10
Texas A&M	COLORADO	1.8	28-26	7
MIAMI-FL	Virginia	18.7	33-14	14
TENNESSEE	Memphis	32.6	47-14	28
CLEMSON	Florida State	6.0	34-28	10
Houston	TULSA	5.9	37-31	8
Southern Cal	ARIZONA STATE	15.1	38-23	11
MICHIGAN	Purdue	5.7	30-24	6
Colorado State	U N L V	0.3	24-24 ot	0
Utah State	HAWAII	8.7	30-21	1
U A B	Florida Atlantic	6.7	30-23	5
UL-Monroe	NORTH TEXAS	6.7	34-27	5
Troy	WESTERN KENTUCKY	24.9	45-20	26
ARKANSAS STATE	UL-Lafayette	13.8	34-20	10
MIDDLE TENNESSEE	Florida Int’l	7.8	24-16	12

 

Bowl Projections For November 2, 2009

Weekly Bowl Predictions

Monday, November 2, 2009

 

This will be a pivotal weekend in the bowl pecking orders, as several marquee games are on tap.  Two of the big three have easy games this week.  Texas will have little more than a workout against Central Florida, while Florida should have enough points on the board two possessions into the game to beat Vanderbilt.

 

Here’s a conference-by-conference outlook for this week.  Unlike many bowl projections, which use a system based on if the season ended today, the PiRate Bowl Projections looks ahead and predicts where the teams will be on December 6.

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

The Atlantic Division is still very much up-for-grabs with Boston College and Clemson tied for first and Florida State and Wake Forest just one game back.  We think Clemson can run the table and grab the division flag.  

 

Georgia Tech has a one game lead over Duke (yes, Duke), but they are tied in the loss column.  We see the Blue Devils having an excellent chance at becoming bowl eligible, but they aren’t going to run the table and win the Coastal Division.  Georgia Tech just edged Clemson in Atlanta, and we think CU would get revenge in an ACC Championship Game.

 

1. BCS Automatic (Orange)—Clemson

2. Chick-fil-A—Miami

3. Gator—Georgia Tech

4. Champ Sports—Virginia Tech

5. Music City—North Carolina

6. Champs Sports—Boston College

7. Emerald—Florida State

8. Eagle Bank—Duke

9. G M A C—No Team Available

 

Big East

Cincinnati is the darling this year, but we think they will stumble at Pittsburgh on December 5.  The Panthers have home games with Syracuse and Notre Dame and the backyard brawl game at West Virginia, and we think Dave Wannstedt’s team will win out to take the Big East Championship.  The question here is where a Cincinnati team at 11-1 would go.  We think the Bearcats would not garner an at-large bid to a BCS Bowl.

 

This conference will have a little shuffling to make sure there will be no rematch games in bowls.  West Virginia played both East Carolina and Marshall, and they will not play either CUSA team in a bowl

 

1. BCS Automatic (Orange)—Pittsburgh

2. Gator—Notre Dame

3. Meineke Car Care—Cincinnati

4. Papa John’s—West Virginia

5. International—Rutgers

6. St. Petersburg—South Florida

 

Big Ten

Iowa is the reincarnated version of Indiana in 1967, the epitome of cardiac comebacks.  That Indiana team finally fell at Minnesota in November, and the schedule is set for Iowa to have that type of game at Ohio State.  For now, we believe Ohio State doesn’t have the offensive talent to upset the Hawkeyes.

 

Penn State should edge Ohio State, but the season finale at Michigan State is definitely a trap game.  At 11-1, they are in a BCS Bowl for sure, but at 10-2, it becomes a little hazy.

 

The bottom four bowls will shuffle to find their best fit, as we see three 6-6 teams and one 7-5 team vying for those bids.  Michigan will trump the other three even with a 6-6 record.

 

1. BCS Automatic (Rose)—Iowa

1a. BCS At-large ( )—Penn State

2. Capital One—Wisconsin

3. Outback—Ohio State

4. Alamo—Michigan

5. Champs Sports—Minnesota

6. Insight—Michigan State

7. Pizza—Northwestern

 

Big 12

Texas is moving along like a steamroller going down hill.  The Longhorns close the season with Central Florida, Baylor, Kansas, Texas A&M, and the Big 12 North Champion.  A&M may be the only team that can come close, so Mack Brown should get a chance to play for his second national championship in Pasadena.

 

Parity leaves this conference with a distinct possibility of having 10 bowl-eligible teams for eight bowls.  The two teams not receiving bids will be 6-6, so there isn’t a great chance either will earn a bowl.

 

1. BCS Automatic (National Championship)—Texas

2. Cotton—Oklahoma State

3. Holiday—Oklahoma

4. Alamo—Texas Tech

5. Sun—Nebraska

6. Insight—Texas A&M

7. Independence—Missouri

8. Texas—Kansas State

 

Bowl Eligible (at 6-6)

Kansas

Iowa State

 

Conference USA

This conference is a jigsaw puzzle.  East Carolina and Houston now appear to be on a collision course toward meeting in the conference championship game, but both teams face opponents that can upset them.  For now, we’ll stick with Case Keenum and the Cougars to win out and finish the regular season at 12-1.  Whether that could propel them out of the automatic bid to the Liberty Bowl to a better bowl, we don’t know.

 

1. Liberty—Houston

2. Hawaii—East Carolina

3. Armed Forces—S M U

4. New Orleans—Southern Miss

5. St. Petersburg—Marshall

 

Bowl Eligible (all at 6-6)

Tulsa

Central Florida

U A B

 

Independents

Notre Dame will not qualify as a BCS Bowl participant, so they will steal a spot from the Big East.  Navy is one win away from an automatic spot in the Texas Bowl, while Army has too much to do to get bowl eligible.

 

1. Gator Bowl—Notre Dame per Gator Bowl rules with Big East

2. Texas—Navy

3. Eagle Bank—No Team Available (Army falls short)

 

Mid-American

Temple and Central Michigan are headed to the MAC Championship Game, while Northern Illinois, Ohio, and Kent State  appear to be headed to the good kind of bowl eligibility (seven or more wins).  Unfortunately for this league, it now looks like the ACC will have an eligible team for this bowl, so the MAC won’t get a guaranteed fourth bid.  However, we see two teams finishing with seven or more wins and jumping ahead of all the 6-6 teams for any at-large bids.

 

The MAC doesn’t automatically send its overall champion to Detroit.  The Pizza Bowl gets first choice, but they don’t have to take the champion.  Central Michigan went there last year, so we think the Chippewas will head to Mobile instead.

 

1. Pizza—Northern Illinois

2. GMAC—Central Michigan

3. International—Temple

 

Bowl Eligible (7-5 or better)

Ohio U

Kent State

 

Mountain West

T C U closes with San Diego State, Utah, Wyoming, and New Mexico.  SDSU could give the Horned Frogs some competition for 15-25 minutes, but TCU will handle the Aztecs.  Utah is always tough, but the Utes don’t have the horses to win in Ft. Worth.  Wyoming can always surprise in Laramie in late November, but we think TCU will win.  At 12-0 and with road wins against Clemson and BYU, TCU should get a BCS Bowl bid even if Boise State finishes ahead of them in the BCS standings.

 

A. BCS At-Large (Fiesta)—T C U

1. Las Vegas—B Y U

2. Poinsettia—Utah

3. Armed Forces—Air Force

4. New Mexico—San Diego State

5. Humanitarian—No Team Available

 

Pac-10

If Southern Cal receives an at-large BCS bowl bid over a 12-0 TCU or Boise State, it will be highway robbery.  The Trojans could even lose another game, so we are picking them to fall short.  Oregon is in the driver’s seat, but Arizona still lurks in the bushes.  The Ducks must visit Tucson on November 21, and if the Wildcats win at Cal the week before, this game will be for first place in the Pac-10.  We think Oregon can lose this game and still win the championship.

 

1. BCS Automatic (Rose)—Oregon

2. Holiday—Southern Cal

3. Sun—California

4. Las Vegas—Arizona

5. Emerald—Stanford

6. Poinsettia—Oregon State

 

Bowl Eligible (6-6)

U C L A

 

Southeastern

This week, we are back to picking Florida to edge Alabama, but that could change again.  LSU is the clear cut third best team, but there’s a huge drop to the fourth place team.  This league will send 10 teams to bowls, with the bottom five teams finishing with 7-5 or 6-6 records.

 

1. BCS Automatic (National Championship Game)—Florida

1a. BCS At-large (Sugar)—Alabama

2. Capital One—L S U

3. Outback—Tennessee

4. Cotton—Auburn

5. Chick-fil-A—Ole Miss

6. Music City—Georgia

7. Liberty—Ole Miss

8. Independence—Kentucky

9. Papa John’s—South Carolina

 

Sunbelt

Troy has little in its path to securing another SBC title.  This league has only one automatic bowl bid.  Three more bowls guarantee a seven-win SBC team first priority if their contracted conference cannot provide a team, but we believe all three bowls will have a bowl-eligible team from each conference.

 

1. New Orleans—Troy

 

Bowl Eligible (7-5 or better)

Middle Tennessee

 

Western Athletic

Boise State has three games remaining against teams that can give them a run for their money.  A Friday night game this week at Louisiana Tech is a huge trap game, while home games against Idaho and Nevada could be interesting for awhile.  The Broncos should run the table in the regular season for the fourth time in six years.  A win over Pac-10 champ Oregon if the Ducks finish 11-1 should be enough to earn BSU an at-large bid to a BCS Bowl, even if TCU finishes ahead of them.  However, unscrupulous bowl sponsors wouldn’t be required to take the Broncos, even if TCU and Boise State finished 3^rd and 4^th in the final BCS Standings.

 

A. BCS At-Large (Sugar)—Boise State

1. Humanitarian—Idaho

2. New Mexico—Nevada

3. Hawaii—Fresno State

 

The BCS Bowls

National Championship Game—Texas vs. Florida

Fiesta Bowl—Penn State vs. T C U

Orange Bowl—Clemson vs. Pittsburgh

Sugar Bowl—Alabama vs. Boise State

Rose Bowl—Oregon vs. Iowa

 

With Florida finishing first in the BCS Standings, the Sugar Bowl will get the first at-large pick.  Even though Alabama went there last year, we see the Sugar Bowl officials taking the Tide once again.  The Fiesta Bowl would get the next at-large choice after losing Texas to the title game, and we believe they would take Penn State.  The Orange Bowl would then choose Pittsburgh over the rest of the field.  The Fiesta would then take TCU, and the Sugar Bowl would then have all the pressure to either do the right thing and take Boise State or the wrong thing and take a one or even two-loss team (Cincinnati, Southern Cal, Georgia Tech)

 

The Rest

First, let’s take care of the loose change.  There will be three bowls that will not have regularly contracted team available.  The GMAC Bowl will not have an available ACC team; the Eagle Bank Bowl will not have a bowl-eligible Army team; and the Humanitarian Bowl will not have an available Mountain West Team.

 

We expect there to be exactly three bowl-eligible teams with seven or more wins, and they will fill the three slots ahead of a host of 6-6 teams from BCS conferences.  Those three fortunate teams are Ohio U, Kent State, and Middle Tennessee.  

 

Note: Teams in asterisks are 7-win or better at-large bowl eligible teams

 

New Mexico	San Diego State	vs.	Nevada
St. Petersburg	South Florida	vs.	Marshall
New Orleans	Troy	vs.	Southern Miss
Las Vegas	B Y U	vs.	Arizona
Poinsettia	Utah	vs.	Oregon State
Hawaii	Fresno State	vs.	East Carolina
Little Caesar’s Pizza	Northern Illinois	vs.	Northwestern
Meineke Car Care	Boston College	vs.	Cincinnati
Emerald	Florida State	vs.	Stanford
Music City	North Carolina	vs.	Georgia
Independence	Kentucky	vs.	Missouri
Eagle Bank	Duke	vs.	Kent State
Champs Sports	Virginia Tech	vs.	Minnesota
Humanitarian	Idaho	vs.	Ohio U
Holiday	Southern Cal	vs.	Oklahoma
Armed Forces	Air Force	vs.	S M U
Sun	Nebraska	vs.	California
Texas	Navy	vs.	Kansas State
Insight.com	Michigan State	vs.	Texas A&M
Chick-fil-A	Miami-FL	vs.	Arkansas
Outback	Ohio State	vs.	Tennessee
Capital One	Wisconsin	vs.	L S U
Gator	Georgia Tech	vs.	Notre Dame
International	Rutgers	vs.	Temple
Cotton	Oklahoma State	vs.	Auburn
Papajohns.com	West Virginia	vs.	South Carolina
Liberty	Ole Miss	vs.	Houston
Alamo	Michigan	vs.	Texas Tech
G M A C	Central Michigan	vs.	Middle Tennessee

 

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week Eight: November 1-2, 2009

All Eyes On The Frozen Tundra

Favre Returns to Green Bay

 

The date has been circled on thousands of calendars in the Badger state since August.  Rumors have it that almost three dozen hotel and motel rooms were reserved by friends and family even before the announcement had been made that Brett Favre was indeed signing with the Minnesota Vikings.  It’s finally here!  Favre returns to Lambeau Field for the first time since he left the Packers.  The last pass he threw at Lambeau was intercepted by New York Giants defensive back Corey Webster.  It broke the hearts of 73,000 fans who were all sure Green Bay was headed to the Super Bowl.

The Minnesota Vikings have many thousand loyal fans in Wisconsin. Near the town of Chippewa Falls, Wisconsin, is the Half-Way Bar.  It supposedly sits equidistant from Lambeau Field and the old Metropolitan Stadium in Bloomington, where the Vikings played before moving into the Metrodome (It is now the location of the Mall of America).  The eastern half of this bar is painted Green and Gold, while the western half of this bar is painted purple and white.  The patrons sip on Leininkugel’s beer, eat brats and fried cheese curds, and carry on like the other half of the bar doesn’t exist.  Well, at least that’s so until a Packer fan yells out something about the “ViQueens.”  Then, it becomes the Hatfield’s and McCoy’s bar.

Almost overlooked by the rivalry is the fact that this game is very important in the standings.  A Green Bay win moves the Packers just ½ game behind Minnesota.  A Viking win gives them a 2 ½ game lead plus a sweep over Green Bay.  How do the PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings see this game?  Look below; it’s should be one worth watching even if you have to go to the Half-Way Bar to do so.

Will this game be one of our picks against the spread this week?  It will cost you just $5 to get all of our picks.  Go to www.piratings.webs.com to purchase our picks for the week.  If you played with us last week, then our picks made you happy as they finished 8-2-1.  

NFC East		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
NY Giants		105.5	105.0	105.9	5-2-0	195	143
Philadelphia		103.3	102.6	103.1	4-2-0	163	116
Dallas		102.7	104.3	104.6	4-2-0	159	119
Washington		93.0	93.1	92.0	2-5-0	96	123
NFC North		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Minnesota		105.6	104.5	107.0	6-1-0	206	148
Green Bay		103.7	105.3	105.6	4-2-0	161	96
Chicago		100.2	99.6	98.9	3-3-0	129	144
Detroit		93.0	90.5	92.1	1-5-0	103	188
NFC South		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New Orleans		115.0	113.5	113.7	6-0-0	238	127
Atlanta		103.9	102.4	103.8	4-2-0	144	114
Carolina		96.8	94.2	94.8	2-4-0	94	145
Tampa Bay		88.2	89.5	89.1	0-7-0	96	203
NFC West		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Arizona		103.3	104.5	105.3	4-2-0	136	109
San Francisco		100.3	100.4	99.1	3-3-0	133	122
Seattle		96.5	97.6	96.0	2-4-0	118	109
St. Louis		84.9	86.5	86.1	0-7-0	60	211
AFC East		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New England		111.7	108.8	109.7	5-2-0	198	98
NY Jets		102.0	104.1	101.4	4-3-0	152	104
Miami		98.7	101.9	99.7	2-4-0	146	152
Buffalo		97.6	97.3	96.7	3-4-0	113	138
AFC North		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Baltimore		109.3	105.2	103.1	3-3-0	169	130
Pittsburgh		107.3	104.7	107.4	5-2-0	167	129
Cincinnati		103.3	103.1	104.5	5-2-0	163	128
Cleveland		88.7	90.9	89.5	1-6-0	72	179
AFC South		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis		112.5	109.8	111.8	6-0-0	179	77
Houston		101.8	99.8	101.1	4-3-0	167	158
Tennessee		93.7	93.3	90.4	0-6-0	84	198
Jacksonville		93.6	96.7	96.4	3-3-0	120	147
AFC West		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Diego		104.0	101.7	101.9	3-3-0	161	143
Denver		102.6	108.2	108.3	6-0-0	133	66
Oakland		88.6	89.6	91.0	2-5-0	62	177
Kansas City		88.3	91.5	90.1	1-6-0	105	181

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
HFA for Week 7 = 2.2
Vegas Line as of 4:30PM EDT Tuesday
Sunday, November 1, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
BALTIMORE	Denver	8.9	-0.8	-3.0	3 1/2	42
CHICAGO	Cleveland	13.7	10.9	11.6	13 1/2	40
Houston	BUFFALO	2.0	0.3	2.2	3	41 1/2
GREEN BAY	Minnesota	0.3	3.0	0.8	3	47 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS	San Francisco	14.4	11.6	14.9	12	43 1/2
NEW YORK JETS	Miami	5.7	4.4	3.9	3	40 1/2
DETROIT	St. Louis	10.3	6.2	8.2	NL	NL
DALLAS	Seattle	8.4	8.9	10.8	9 1/2	46
SAN DIEGO	Oakland	17.6	14.3	13.1	16 1/2	41 1/2
TENNESSEE	Jacksonville	2.3	-1.2	-3.8	3	44 1/2
ARIZONA	Carolina	8.7	12.5	12.7	9 1/2	41
PHILADELPHIA	New York Giants	0.0	-0.2	-0.6	1 1/2	44
Monday, November 2, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
NEW ORLEANS	Atlanta	13.3	13.3	12.1	10	54 1/2