The PiRates Are Ready To Board Your Ship For 2008-2009
Ahoy there! The PiRates have returned for another season of mayhem and mischief. They are ready to pillage those nasty ships from Las Vegas and reap the booty to be had. Okay, if they are like last year, they may wish to become greeters at the local Wal-Mart, but let’s hope that 2007 was a great aberration.
As you may have read in a post last week, there has been a major change this year. This blog will concentrate on Pro Football while providing the bare bones in college football. I just don’t follow college football with a passion any more. The BCS has turned me off the game. They need to either go to playoffs like all other sports, or return to the old ways and not let something or someone determine (and almost always getting it wrong) which two teams will have the chance to become the champion. If you talk to the top experts in the business, and you know who they live in Nevada, they would tell you that Southern Cal and West Virginia were the top two teams last year. Both of them would have been favored against either LSU or Ohio State. The criteria that the BCS uses are no more accurate than your average stock screening program.
What I plan to do this year is provide an abbreviated college preview on Wednesday or Thursday and an in-depth NFL preview on Friday. Once again, I will also carry a pro football computer simulation of NFL teams from yesteryear, and that will run on Mondays once the NFL season begins.
I have the preview for the first week of the college season, as time restraints will make it impossible to post on Wednesday or Thursday.
Preseason PiRate Top 25
NCAA FBS
|
Team Rating |
Won |
Lost |
||
|
1 |
Ohio St. |
128.4 |
11 |
2 |
|
2 |
Florida |
126.9 |
9 |
4 |
|
3 |
Georgia |
124.0 |
11 |
2 |
|
4 |
Missouri |
122.9 |
12 |
2 |
|
5 |
S. Florida |
120.4 |
9 |
4 |
|
6 |
Auburn |
120.3 |
9 |
4 |
|
7 |
Clemson |
119.0 |
9 |
4 |
|
7 |
Oklahoma |
119.0 |
11 |
3 |
|
9 |
Oregon |
117.7 |
9 |
4 |
|
10 |
Southern Cal |
117.4 |
11 |
2 |
|
10 |
Kansas |
117.4 |
12 |
1 |
|
12 |
W. Virginia |
117.4 |
11 |
2 |
|
13 |
L S U |
117.3 |
12 |
2 |
|
14 |
S. Carolina |
115.7 |
6 |
6 |
|
15 |
Texas Tech |
115.2 |
9 |
4 |
|
16 |
Tennessee |
114.7 |
10 |
4 |
|
16 |
Arizona St. |
114.7 |
10 |
3 |
|
18 |
Wisconsin |
113.3 |
9 |
4 |
|
19 |
Va. Tech |
111.6 |
11 |
3 |
|
20 |
Penn St. |
111.0 |
9 |
4 |
|
21 |
Texas |
110.5 |
10 |
3 |
|
22 |
B Y U |
109.9 |
11 |
2 |
|
23 |
Alabama |
109.5 |
7 |
6 |
|
24 |
California |
109.2 |
7 |
6 |
|
25 |
Kentucky |
109.1 |
8 |
5 |
PiRate Ratings By Conference
|
Atlantic Coast Conference |
|||||
|
Atlantic Division |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
|
Clemson |
0-0 |
0-0 |
119.0 |
73 |
46 |
|
Florida State |
0-0 |
0-0 |
108.5 |
65 |
44 |
|
Wake Forest |
0-0 |
0-0 |
107.8 |
63 |
45 |
|
Maryland |
0-0 |
0-0 |
106.9 |
68 |
39 |
|
Boston College |
0-0 |
0-0 |
101.4 |
62 |
39 |
|
North Carolina St. |
0-0 |
0-0 |
92.9 |
61 |
32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Coastal Division |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
|
Virginia Tech |
0-0 |
0-0 |
111.6 |
71 |
41 |
|
North Carolina |
0-0 |
0-0 |
105.6 |
68 |
38 |
|
Virginia |
0-0 |
0-0 |
99.2 |
61 |
38 |
|
Georgia Tech |
0-0 |
0-0 |
97.5 |
62 |
36 |
|
Miami |
0-0 |
0-0 |
96.3 |
58 |
38 |
|
Duke |
0-0 |
0-0 |
95.7 |
62 |
34 |
|
Big East Conference |
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
|
South Florida |
0-0 |
0-0 |
120.4 |
76 |
44 |
|
West Virginia |
0-0 |
0-0 |
117.4 |
76 |
41 |
|
Connecticut |
0-0 |
0-0 |
108.7 |
67 |
42 |
|
Rutgers |
0-0 |
0-0 |
108.0 |
66 |
42 |
|
Cincinnati |
0-0 |
0-0 |
107.3 |
64 |
43 |
|
Pittsburgh |
0-0 |
0-0 |
107.0 |
63 |
44 |
|
Louisville |
0-0 |
0-0 |
99.4 |
64 |
35 |
|
Syracuse |
0-0 |
0-0 |
91.4 |
56 |
35 |
|
Big Ten |
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
|
Ohio State |
0-0 |
0-0 |
128.4 |
74 |
54 |
|
Wisconsin |
0-0 |
0-0 |
113.3 |
71 |
42 |
|
Penn State |
0-0 |
0-0 |
111.0 |
67 |
44 |
|
Michigan State |
0-0 |
0-0 |
107.3 |
67 |
40 |
|
Illinois |
0-0 |
0-0 |
106.9 |
67 |
40 |
|
Michigan |
0-0 |
0-0 |
103.9 |
62 |
42 |
|
Purdue |
0-0 |
0-0 |
101.7 |
65 |
37 |
|
Northwestern |
0-0 |
0-0 |
98.2 |
65 |
33 |
|
Iowa |
0-0 |
0-0 |
97.3 |
62 |
35 |
|
Indiana |
0-0 |
0-0 |
97.2 |
63 |
34 |
|
Minnesota |
0-0 |
0-0 |
94.4 |
62 |
32 |
|
Big 12 |
|||||
|
North Division |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
|
Missouri |
0-0 |
0-0 |
122.9 |
73 |
50 |
|
Kansas |
0-0 |
0-0 |
117.4 |
69 |
48 |
|
Colorado |
0-0 |
0-0 |
103.6 |
65 |
39 |
|
Kansas State |
0-0 |
0-0 |
101.9 |
67 |
35 |
|
Nebraska |
0-0 |
0-0 |
100.3 |
61 |
39 |
|
Iowa State |
0-0 |
0-0 |
92.2 |
56 |
36 |
|
South Division |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
|
Oklahoma |
0-0 |
0-0 |
119.0 |
77 |
42 |
|
Texas Tech |
0-0 |
0-0 |
115.2 |
75 |
40 |
|
Texas |
0-0 |
0-0 |
110.5 |
71 |
40 |
|
Okla. State |
0-0 |
0-0 |
105.6 |
66 |
40 |
|
Texas A&M |
0-0 |
0-0 |
103.4 |
62 |
41 |
|
Baylor |
0-0 |
0-0 |
90.9 |
58 |
33 |
|
Conference USA |
|||||
|
East Division |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
|
East Carolina |
0-0 |
0-0 |
103.8 |
65 |
39 |
|
Central Florida |
0-0 |
0-0 |
97.6 |
58 |
40 |
|
Marshall |
0-0 |
0-0 |
92.7 |
56 |
37 |
|
Memphis |
0-0 |
0-0 |
87.3 |
58 |
29 |
|
Southern Miss. |
0-0 |
0-0 |
86.8 |
57 |
30 |
|
U A B |
0-0 |
0-0 |
82.7 |
49 |
34 |
|
West Division |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
|
Tulsa |
0-0 |
0-0 |
99.4 |
66 |
33 |
|
Houston |
0-0 |
0-0 |
92.1 |
56 |
36 |
|
Rice |
0-0 |
0-0 |
87.1 |
59 |
28 |
|
Tulane |
0-0 |
0-0 |
84.4 |
56 |
28 |
|
U T E P |
0-0 |
0-0 |
82.9 |
50 |
33 |
|
S M U |
0-0 |
0-0 |
82.5 |
57 |
26 |
|
Independents |
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
|
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
|
Notre Dame |
|
0-0 |
102.4 |
64 |
38 |
|
Navy |
|
0-0 |
92.7 |
58 |
35 |
|
Army |
|
0-0 |
77.2 |
49 |
28 |
|
Mid American Conference |
|||||
|
East Division |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
|
Temple |
0-0 |
0-0 |
96.8 |
59 |
38 |
|
Bowling Green |
0-0 |
0-0 |
96.3 |
63 |
33 |
|
Miami (O) |
0-0 |
0-0 |
93.9 |
59 |
35 |
|
Buffalo |
0-0 |
0-0 |
93.0 |
60 |
33 |
|
Kent State |
0-0 |
0-0 |
89.0 |
56 |
33 |
|
Ohio U |
0-0 |
0-0 |
85.5 |
53 |
33 |
|
Akron |
0-0 |
0-0 |
83.9 |
57 |
27 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
West Division |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
|
Ball State |
0-0 |
0-0 |
102.5 |
67 |
36 |
|
Central Michigan |
0-0 |
0-0 |
99.0 |
66 |
33 |
|
Western Michigan |
0-0 |
0-0 |
97.5 |
61 |
37 |
|
Northern Illinois |
0-0 |
0-0 |
91.7 |
58 |
34 |
|
Toledo |
0-0 |
0-0 |
89.8 |
57 |
33 |
|
Eastern Michigan |
0-0 |
0-0 |
87.1 |
54 |
33 |
|
Mountain West Conference |
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
|
B Y U |
0-0 |
0-0 |
109.9 |
70 |
40 |
|
Utah |
0-0 |
0-0 |
107.5 |
65 |
43 |
|
T C U |
0-0 |
0-0 |
106.0 |
63 |
43 |
|
Wyoming |
0-0 |
0-0 |
93.8 |
59 |
35 |
|
New Mexico |
0-0 |
0-0 |
93.3 |
58 |
35 |
|
U N L V |
0-0 |
0-0 |
89.3 |
58 |
31 |
|
Air Force |
0-0 |
0-0 |
89.0 |
54 |
35 |
|
Colorado State |
0-0 |
0-0 |
86.3 |
55 |
31 |
|
San Diego State |
0-0 |
0-0 |
86.2 |
52 |
34 |
|
Pac-10 Conference |
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
|
Oregon |
0-0 |
0-0 |
117.7 |
70 |
48 |
|
Southern Cal |
0-0 |
0-0 |
117.4 |
67 |
50 |
|
Arizona State |
0-0 |
0-0 |
114.7 |
71 |
44 |
|
California |
0-0 |
0-0 |
109.2 |
65 |
44 |
|
Arizona |
0-0 |
0-0 |
106.7 |
69 |
38 |
|
Oregon State |
0-0 |
0-0 |
106.2 |
68 |
38 |
|
U C L A |
0-0 |
0-0 |
105.0 |
62 |
43 |
|
Washington |
0-0 |
0-0 |
104.9 |
67 |
38 |
|
Stanford |
0-0 |
0-0 |
102.7 |
62 |
41 |
|
Washington State |
0-0 |
0-0 |
99.2 |
61 |
38 |
|
Southeastern Conference |
|||||
|
East Division |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
|
Florida |
0-0 |
0-0 |
126.9 |
79 |
48 |
|
Georgia |
0-0 |
0-0 |
124.0 |
74 |
56 |
|
South Carolina |
0-0 |
0-0 |
115.7 |
70 |
46 |
|
Tennessee |
0-0 |
0-0 |
114.7 |
73 |
42 |
|
Kentucky |
0-0 |
0-0 |
109.1 |
66 |
49 |
|
Vanderbilt |
0-0 |
0-0 |
99.5 |
60 |
40 |
|
West Division |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
|
Auburn |
0-0 |
0-0 |
120.3 |
74 |
46 |
|
L S U |
0-0 |
0-0 |
117.3 |
72 |
45 |
|
Alabama |
0-0 |
0-0 |
109.5 |
66 |
44 |
|
Ole Miss |
0-0 |
0-0 |
108.3 |
65 |
43 |
|
Mississippi State |
0-0 |
0-0 |
108.0 |
62 |
46 |
|
Arkansas |
0-0 |
0-0 |
102.7 |
68 |
35 |
|
Sunbelt Conference |
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
|
Florida Atlantic |
0-0 |
0-0 |
99.0 |
66 |
33 |
|
Troy |
0-0 |
0-0 |
97.4 |
61 |
36 |
|
Louisiana Monroe |
0-0 |
0-0 |
89.8 |
56 |
34 |
|
*Western Kentucky |
0-0 |
0-0 |
85.5 |
54 |
32 |
|
Arkansas State |
0-0 |
0-0 |
84.8 |
56 |
29 |
|
Louisiana Lafayette |
0-0 |
0-0 |
84.2 |
56 |
28 |
|
Middle Tennessee |
0-0 |
0-0 |
84.0 |
55 |
29 |
|
Florida International |
0-0 |
0-0 |
79.4 |
50 |
29 |
|
North Texas |
0-0 |
0-0 |
74.0 |
52 |
22 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
* Western Kentucky will become eligible in 2009 |
|
|
|
||
|
Their games will not count in the SBC Standings in 2008 |
|
|
|||
|
Western Athletic Conference |
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
|
Fresno State |
0-0 |
0-0 |
106.8 |
69 |
38 |
|
Boise State |
0-0 |
0-0 |
103.4 |
65 |
38 |
|
Hawaii |
0-0 |
0-0 |
92.8 |
57 |
36 |
|
Nevada |
0-0 |
0-0 |
92.8 |
62 |
31 |
|
Louisiana Tech |
0-0 |
0-0 |
88.9 |
56 |
33 |
|
San Jose State |
0-0 |
0-0 |
87.5 |
55 |
33 |
|
Utah State |
0-0 |
0-0 |
82.7 |
49 |
34 |
|
New Mexico State |
0-0 |
0-0 |
82.3 |
51 |
31 |
|
Idaho |
0-0 |
0-0 |
81.7 |
58 |
24 |
|
This Week’s Games |
|||
|
Home Team in Bold |
(N) Denotes Neutral Site |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Thursday, August 28 |
|
|
|
|
Favorite |
Underdog |
Pred. Spread |
Approx. Score |
|
Buffalo |
U T E P |
13 |
30-17 |
|
Vanderbilt |
Miami-OH |
3 |
24-21 |
|
Troy |
Middle Tennessee |
10 |
31-21 |
|
Wake Forest |
Baylor |
14 |
28-14 |
|
South Carolina |
North Carolina St. |
25 |
38-13 |
|
Oregon State |
Stanford |
1 |
27-26 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Friday, August 29 |
|
|
|
|
Favorite |
Underdog |
Pred. Spread |
Approx. Score |
|
Temple |
Army |
17 |
31-14 |
|
Rice |
SMU |
7 |
35-28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Saturday, August 30 |
|
|
|
|
Favorite |
Underdog |
Pred. Spread |
Approx. Score |
|
Northwestern |
Syracuse |
10 |
31-21 |
|
Indiana |
Western Kentucky |
14 |
34-20 |
|
Virginia Tech |
East Carolina |
5 |
28-23 |
|
Pittsburgh |
Bowling Green |
14 |
31-17 |
|
Wisconsin |
Akron |
32 |
45-13 |
|
Florida |
Hawaii |
39 |
45-6 |
|
Texas |
Florida Atlantic |
15 |
41-26 |
|
Wyoming |
Ohio U |
12 |
28-16 |
|
Michigan |
Utah |
Pk |
23-23 to OT |
|
Southern Cal |
Virginia |
15 |
28-13 |
|
Oklahoma State |
Washington State |
4 |
28-24 |
|
Tulsa |
U A B |
13 |
30-17 |
|
T C U |
New Mexico |
10 |
27-17 |
|
Mississippi State |
Louisiana Tech |
16 |
26-10 |
|
Auburn |
Louisiana Monroe |
34 |
44-10 |
|
Minnesota |
Northern Illinois |
5 |
31-26 |
|
Ole Miss |
Memphis |
23 |
37-14 |
|
Nebraska |
Western Michigan |
6 |
27-21 |
|
Texas A&M |
Arkansas State |
22 |
35-13 |
|
Kansas |
Florida International |
42 |
42-0 |
|
Southern Miss. |
Louisiana-Lafayette |
6 |
30-24 |
|
Kansas State |
North Texas |
31 |
48-17 |
|
Boston College |
Kent State |
10 |
27-17 |
|
California |
Michigan State |
6 |
27-21 |
|
Clemson (n-Atlanta) |
Alabama |
9 |
29-20 |
|
Missouri (n-St. Louis) |
Illinois |
16 |
33-17 |
|
Arizona |
Idaho |
28 |
45-17 |
|
U N L V |
Utah State |
9 |
27-18 |
|
Oregon |
Washington |
16 |
33-17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sunday, August 31 |
|
|
|
|
Favorite |
Underdog |
Pred. Spread |
Approx. Score |
|
Kentucky |
Louisville |
14 |
31-17 |
|
Colorado (n-Denver) |
Colorado State |
18 |
34-16 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Monday, September 1 |
|
|
|
|
Favorite |
Underdog |
Pred. Spread |
Approx. Score |
|
Rutgers |
Fresno State |
4 |
31-27 |
|
Tennessee |
U C L A |
6 |
30-24 |
Mean Rating Predictions
The Mean Rating is my old rating from the 1970’s and 1980’s. I brought it back last year as a supplement. When the PiRate spread and the Mean Rating agree on the point spread choice from the Las Vegas Line and both ratings differ by more than 2½ points from the Vegas Line, then consider that game as a playable game against the spread.
When the two ratings agree on the predicted winner of the game, and the Vegas Line is 1-10 points on that team as the favorite, then consider that game as playable on the Money Line. These strategies work best against the Monday lines for Saturday games.
|
This Week’s Games–Mean Ratings |
|||
|
Home Team in Bold |
(N) Denotes Neutral Site |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Thursday, August 28 |
|
|
|
|
Favorite |
Underdog |
Mean Prediction |
|
|
Buffalo |
U T E P |
28-24 |
|
|
Vanderbilt |
Miami-OH |
21-16 |
|
|
Troy |
Middle Tennessee |
30-23 |
|
|
Wake Forest |
Baylor |
27-10 |
|
|
South Carolina |
North Carolina St. |
31-16 |
|
|
Oregon State |
Stanford |
31-20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Friday, August 29 |
|
|
|
|
Favorite |
Underdog |
Mean Prediction |
|
|
Temple |
Army |
24-23 |
|
|
Rice |
SMU |
37-31 |
|
|
|
|
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Saturday, August 30 |
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Favorite |
Underdog |
Mean Prediction |
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Northwestern |
Syracuse |
31-20 |
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Indiana |
Western Kentucky |
35-20 |
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Virginia Tech |
East Carolina |
28-12 |
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Pittsburgh |
Bowling Green |
31-17 |
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Wisconsin |
Akron |
44-17 |
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Florida |
Hawaii |
41-21 |
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Texas |
Florida Atlantic |
42-21 |
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Wyoming |
Ohio U |
24-17 |
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Michigan |
Utah |
24-20 |
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Southern Cal |
Virginia |
27-12 |
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Oklahoma State |
Washington State |
27-24 |
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Tulsa |
U A B |
34-17 |
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T C U |
New Mexico |
20-17 |
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Mississippi State |
Louisiana Tech |
24-12 |
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Auburn |
Louisiana Monroe |
34-10 |
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Minnesota |
Northern Illinois |
28-17 |
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Ole Miss |
Memphis |
31-21 |
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Nebraska |
Western Michigan |
28-16 |
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Texas A&M |
Arkansas State |
35-14 |
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Kansas |
Florida International |
42-0 |
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Southern Miss. |
Louisiana-Lafayette |
33-17 |
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Kansas State |
North Texas |
45-20 |
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Boston College |
Kent State |
28-6 |
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California |
Michigan State |
26-21 |
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Clemson (n-Atlanta) |
Alabama |
27-20 |
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Missouri (n-St. Louis) |
Illinois |
28-16 |
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Arizona |
Idaho |
45-17 |
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U N L V |
Utah State |
27-20 |
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Oregon |
Washington |
35-19 |
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Sunday, August 31 |
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Favorite |
Underdog |
Mean Prediction |
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Louisville |
Kentucky |
28-27 |
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Colorado (n-Denver) |
Colorado State |
30-20 |
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Monday, September 1 |
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Favorite |
Underdog |
Mean Prediction |
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Rutgers |
Fresno State |
31-23 |
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Tennessee |
U C L A |
28-27 |
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Preview For Wisconsin-Akron
Vegas: Wisconsin by 26½
PiRate: Wisconsin by 32
Mean: Wisconsin by 27
Strategy: Neither Sides nor Moneyline apply to this game
The 2008 season finds Coach Bret Bielema’s Badgers loaded. If it weren’t for the unbelievable mix of talent in Columbus, Ohio, I would tend to pick UW to win the Big Ten title. The defense should be a little better than last season, while the offense may take a few games to gel. However, once quarterback Allan Evridge shakes off the rust, he could actually be more explosive than departed star Tyler Donovan.
In game one, I am inclined to believe that the Badgers will start a little sluggish. Akron is much weaker than they were during the Charlie Frye days, and the Zips are no threat to win this game. It will allow UW to work out the kinks and get a win under their belt without worrying about an Appalachian State moment.
My personal prediction here is a 35-17 win for the Badgers. Yes, I do disagree with my own ratings from time to time.
Preview for Vanderbilt-Miami of Ohio
Vegas: Miami by 4
PiRate: Vanderbilt by 3
Mean: Vanderbilt by 5
Strategy: Vanderbilt +3 and Vanderbilt +175 on the moneyline
This is a scary proposition. I’ve witnessed Vanderbilt football games for more than four decades, and the Commodores have broken the hearts of their fans more than once (more like more than one hundred times) in that time span.
Miami has a couple of famous traditions. First, the school is known as the “Cradle of Coaches.” I doubt there is another program that can equal the great group of leaders that came from Oxford, Ohio. Here’s a sampling off the top of my head: Paul Brown, Woody Hayes, Bo Schembechler, Weeb Eewbank, Ara Parseghian, Bill Mallory, Dick Crum, Randy Walker, and Terry Hoeppner.
It’s the other tradition that worries me. Miami has been known to upset their share of opponents. They once beat Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina in bowl games in three consecutive seasons. They have won at Kentucky and at LSU. When Northwestern won the Big 10 Championship and went to the Rose Bowl in the mid-90’s, their lone regular season loss was to Miami.
Now, take into consideration that this will be the first time an SEC opponent plays at Yager Stadium. Also take into consideration that Vanderbilt is the number 12 team in the SEC and will be playing this game with an entirely new starting offensive line and with five new players in the defensive front seven. They will be playing without their most potent weapon from last year in wideout Earl Bennett, and their best returning receiver, George Smith, will miss this game due to injury. They lost their top running back from last year, and their starting back has never fully recovered from an ACL injury in 2006.
Vanderbilt steamrollered over Miami last year. They simply ran the ball between the tackles, ala Ohio State in the Woody Hayes days. Miami didn’t have the strength to stop the running attack even though they knew the Commodores were not going to throw the ball with an injured quarterback unable to pass.
Logic holds that Vandy can line up and play smash-mouth football and win this game in ugly fashion. A few well-timed long play-action passes can be more valuable than throwing it 35 times in this game.
I think the Commodores will come from behind in the second half and win this game by wearing down the Redhawks in the trenches. Here’s a little secret: Vanderbilt has possibly the best offensive line coach in college football. Robbie Caldwell will have molded the new line players into a cohesive unit by the time this game begins, and the Commodores should find success running the ball, while quarterback Chris Nickson should have enough time to locate receivers to keep the defense honest. This isn’t going to be a team that threatens to break the long streak of losing seasons, but this team should still be competitive.
My personal prediction is the same as the PiRate prediction. Even should Miami pull off the win, four points are a lot to cover. I like playing underdogs of more than a field goal when they have a good chance of winning outright, even when it’s the school with a tradition of breaking hearts. Go with Vanderbilt at +4 and at +175 in the Money Line.
Other Playable Games According to the PiRates
Oregon State -155 vs. Stanford
Troy -260 vs. Middle Tennessee
Temple -270 vs. Army
Rice -3½ and -165 vs. SMU
Ole Miss -7½ and -310 vs. Memphis
Oregon -13½ vs. Washington
TCU -260 vs. New Mexico
Mississippi State -7½ and -350 vs. Louisiana Tech
Washington State +7 vs. Oklahoma State
Missouri -8½ and -370 vs. Illinois
California -185 vs. Michigan State
Virginia +20 vs. Southern California
Utah State +9½ vs. UNLV and UNLV -500 vs. Utah State
Western Kentucky +20½ vs. Indiana (WKU’s first line ever!)
Florida Atlantic +24 vs. Texas
Kansas -36 vs. Florida International
Kentucky +3½ vs. Louisville
Rutgers -230 vs. Fresno State
Tennessee -290 vs. UCLA
The Pi-Rate Ratings 