NCAA Week 13: It’s Resolution Week, Part One
This week starts the beginning of the end of the regular season for college football. Many teams will be playing their final games of the year, and many teams will be either playing themselves into a bowl or being eliminated from a bowl. In addition, there are numerous big rivalry games.
The bowl situation couldn’t be more messed up today. I believe six bowls will have to find at-large entries as the conferences which with they have agreements will not provide enough bowl eligible teams. I believe the Independence bowl will have to find two at-large teams.
NCAA Top 25 For 18-Nov-2008 |
Rank |
Team |
PiRate |
Won |
Lost |
1 |
Florida |
139 |
9 |
1 |
2 |
Southern Cal |
132 |
9 |
1 |
3 |
Texas |
128 |
10 |
1 |
4 |
Texas Tech |
127 |
10 |
0 |
5 |
Oklahoma |
127 |
9 |
1 |
6 |
Ohio St. |
125 |
9 |
2 |
7 |
Penn St. |
123 |
10 |
1 |
8 |
Missouri |
121 |
9 |
2 |
9 |
Alabama |
120 |
11 |
0 |
10 |
Georgia |
119 |
9 |
2 |
11 |
Oregon State |
118 |
7 |
3 |
12 |
T C U |
117 |
9 |
2 |
13 |
Boise State |
116 |
10 |
0 |
14 |
Utah |
116 |
11 |
0 |
15 |
Oklahoma St. |
115 |
9 |
2 |
16 |
Oregon |
115 |
8 |
3 |
17 |
Ball State |
113 |
10 |
0 |
18 |
Ole Miss |
113 |
6 |
4 |
19 |
L S U |
112 |
7 |
3 |
20 |
California |
112 |
6 |
4 |
21 |
Rutgers |
112 |
5 |
5 |
22 |
West Virginia |
112 |
6 |
3 |
23 |
Cincinnati |
111 |
8 |
2 |
24 |
Iowa |
111 |
7 |
4 |
25 |
Arizona |
111 |
6 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
Note: Ratings rounded to nearest whole number |
even though I rank them to two decimal points |
PiRate Ratings By Conference
Atlantic Coast Conference |
Atlantic Division |
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Clemson |
3-4 |
5-5 |
109 |
66 |
43 |
Boston College |
3-3 |
7-3 |
108 |
65 |
43 |
Florida State |
4-3 |
7-3 |
108 |
68 |
40 |
Maryland |
4-2 |
7-3 |
105 |
64 |
41 |
Wake Forest |
4-3 |
6-4 |
102 |
56 |
46 |
North Carolina State |
2-4 |
4-6 |
100 |
67 |
33 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Coastal Division |
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
North Carolina |
3-3 |
7-3 |
109 |
68 |
41 |
Virginia Tech |
3-3 |
6-4 |
107 |
66 |
41 |
Miami |
4-2 |
7-3 |
105 |
61 |
44 |
Georgia Tech |
4-3 |
7-3 |
102 |
62 |
40 |
Virginia |
3-3 |
5-5 |
101 |
59 |
42 |
Duke |
1-5 |
4-6 |
92 |
60 |
32 |
Big East Conference |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Rutgers |
4-2 |
5-5 |
112 |
67 |
45 |
West Virginia |
3-1 |
6-3 |
112 |
67 |
45 |
Cincinnati |
4-1 |
8-2 |
111 |
65 |
46 |
Pittsburgh |
3-1 |
7-2 |
108 |
65 |
43 |
Connecticut |
3-2 |
7-3 |
105 |
65 |
40 |
South Florida |
1-4 |
6-4 |
105 |
68 |
37 |
Louisville |
1-4 |
5-5 |
96 |
59 |
37 |
Syracuse |
1-5 |
2-8 |
86 |
54 |
32 |
Big Ten |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Ohio State |
6-1 |
9-2 |
125 |
70 |
55 |
Penn State |
6-1 |
10-1 |
123 |
74 |
49 |
Iowa |
4-3 |
7-4 |
111 |
69 |
42 |
Wisconsin |
3-5 |
6-5 |
108 |
71 |
37 |
Illinois |
3-4 |
5-6 |
107 |
68 |
39 |
Michigan State |
6-1 |
9-2 |
106 |
64 |
42 |
Northwestern |
4-3 |
8-3 |
101 |
62 |
39 |
Minnesota |
3-4 |
7-4 |
99 |
63 |
36 |
Purdue |
1-6 |
3-8 |
98 |
63 |
35 |
Michigan |
2-5 |
3-8 |
98 |
58 |
40 |
Indiana |
1-6 |
3-8 |
85 |
57 |
28 |
Big 12 |
North Division |
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Missouri |
5-2 |
9-2 |
121 |
75 |
46 |
Nebraska |
4-3 |
7-4 |
109 |
70 |
39 |
Kansas |
3-4 |
6-5 |
106 |
66 |
40 |
Colorado |
2-5 |
5-6 |
94 |
56 |
38 |
Kansas State |
1-6 |
4-7 |
93 |
67 |
26 |
Iowa State |
0-7 |
2-9 |
85 |
57 |
28 |
South Division |
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Texas |
6-1 |
10-1 |
128 |
82 |
46 |
Texas Tech |
6-0 |
10-0 |
127 |
86 |
41 |
Oklahoma |
5-1 |
9-1 |
127 |
86 |
41 |
Oklahoma State |
5-2 |
9-2 |
115 |
69 |
46 |
Baylor |
2-5 |
4-7 |
104 |
66 |
38 |
Texas A&M |
2-5 |
4-7 |
90 |
56 |
34 |
Conference USA |
East Division |
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Southern Miss. |
3-4 |
5-6 |
97 |
64 |
33 |
East Carolina |
4-2 |
6-4 |
95 |
60 |
35 |
Central Florida |
2-4 |
3-7 |
91 |
50 |
41 |
Memphis |
3-3 |
5-5 |
90 |
60 |
30 |
Marshall |
3-3 |
4-6 |
90 |
57 |
33 |
U A B |
2-4 |
3-7 |
79 |
51 |
28 |
West Division |
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Tulsa |
5-1 |
8-2 |
102 |
71 |
31 |
Houston |
5-1 |
6-4 |
100 |
67 |
33 |
Rice |
5-1 |
7-3 |
91 |
62 |
29 |
U T E P |
4-2 |
5-5 |
90 |
60 |
30 |
S M U |
0-7 |
1-10 |
78 |
57 |
21 |
Tulane |
1-5 |
2-8 |
76 |
52 |
24 |
Independents |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
|
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Notre Dame |
|
6-4 |
103 |
61 |
42 |
Navy |
|
6-4 |
97 |
60 |
37 |
Army |
|
3-7 |
86 |
49 |
37 |
Mid American Conference |
East Division |
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Bowling Green |
3-3 |
5-5 |
99 |
66 |
33 |
Buffalo |
4-2 |
6-4 |
98 |
65 |
33 |
Temple |
2-4 |
3-7 |
95 |
56 |
39 |
Akron |
3-3 |
5-5 |
93 |
62 |
31 |
Kent State |
2-4 |
3-7 |
90 |
59 |
31 |
Ohio U |
1-5 |
2-8 |
87 |
48 |
39 |
Miami (O) |
1-5 |
2-8 |
87 |
57 |
30 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
West Division |
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Ball State |
6-0 |
10-0 |
113 |
74 |
39 |
Western Michigan |
6-1 |
9-2 |
101 |
64 |
37 |
Central Michigan |
6-0 |
8-2 |
99 |
67 |
32 |
Northern Illinois |
4-3 |
5-5 |
97 |
60 |
37 |
Toledo |
1-5 |
2-8 |
87 |
57 |
30 |
Eastern Michigan |
1-5 |
2-8 |
83 |
52 |
31 |
Mountain West Conference |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
T C U |
6-1 |
9-2 |
117 |
66 |
51 |
Utah |
7-0 |
11-0 |
116 |
69 |
47 |
Brigham Young |
6-1 |
10-1 |
108 |
68 |
40 |
Air Force |
5-2 |
8-3 |
98 |
60 |
38 |
New Mexico |
2-6 |
4-8 |
93 |
56 |
37 |
UNLV |
2-5 |
5-6 |
91 |
59 |
32 |
Colorado State |
3-4 |
5-6 |
91 |
59 |
32 |
Wyoming |
1-6 |
4-7 |
87 |
52 |
35 |
San Diego State |
0-7 |
1-10 |
70 |
46 |
24 |
Pac-10 Conference |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Southern Cal |
7-1 |
9-1 |
132 |
73 |
59 |
Oregon State |
6-1 |
7-3 |
118 |
75 |
43 |
Oregon |
6-2 |
8-3 |
115 |
73 |
42 |
California |
4-3 |
6-4 |
112 |
71 |
41 |
Arizona |
4-3 |
6-4 |
111 |
74 |
37 |
Stanford |
4-4 |
5-6 |
108 |
65 |
43 |
Arizona State |
3-4 |
4-6 |
105 |
64 |
41 |
U C L A |
3-4 |
4-6 |
100 |
57 |
43 |
Washington |
0-7 |
0-10 |
85 |
56 |
29 |
Washington State |
0-8 |
1-10 |
71 |
48 |
23 |
Southeastern Conference |
East Division |
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Florida |
7-1 |
9-1 |
139 |
86 |
53 |
Georgia |
6-2 |
9-2 |
119 |
73 |
46 |
South Carolina |
4-4 |
7-4 |
111 |
65 |
46 |
Vanderbilt |
4-3 |
6-4 |
106 |
59 |
47 |
Kentucky |
2-5 |
6-5 |
104 |
63 |
41 |
Tennessee |
1-5 |
3-7 |
101 |
59 |
42 |
West Division |
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Alabama |
7-0 |
11-0 |
120 |
68 |
52 |
Ole Miss |
3-3 |
6-4 |
113 |
69 |
44 |
L S U |
3-3 |
7-3 |
112 |
71 |
41 |
Auburn |
2-5 |
5-6 |
106 |
58 |
48 |
Mississippi State |
1-5 |
3-7 |
102 |
57 |
45 |
Arkansas |
1-5 |
4-6 |
101 |
67 |
34 |
Sunbelt Conference |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Troy |
4-1 |
6-4 |
99 |
66 |
33 |
Florida Atlantic |
3-2 |
5-5 |
95 |
63 |
32 |
Louisiana-Lafayette |
4-1 |
5-5 |
91 |
66 |
25 |
Arkansas State |
2-2 |
4-5 |
89 |
59 |
30 |
Middle Tennessee |
2-3 |
4-6 |
89 |
56 |
33 |
Florida International |
3-2 |
4-5 |
86 |
56 |
30 |
Louisiana-Monroe |
2-4 |
3-8 |
85 |
55 |
30 |
* Western Kentucky |
0-0 |
2-9 |
82 |
51 |
31 |
North Texas |
0-5 |
1-9 |
70 |
54 |
16 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
* Western Kentucky will become eligible in 2009 |
|
|
|
Their games will not count in the SBC Standings in 2008 |
|
|
Western Athletic Conference |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Boise State |
6-0 |
10-0 |
116 |
72 |
44 |
Nevada |
4-2 |
6-4 |
101 |
72 |
29 |
Louisiana Tech |
4-2 |
6-4 |
95 |
56 |
39 |
Hawaii |
4-3 |
5-5 |
90 |
54 |
36 |
Fresno State |
3-3 |
6-4 |
90 |
62 |
28 |
Utah State |
2-5 |
2-9 |
88 |
55 |
33 |
San Jose State |
4-3 |
6-5 |
87 |
54 |
33 |
New Mexico State |
1-5 |
3-7 |
78 |
50 |
28 |
Idaho |
1-6 |
2-9 |
75 |
58 |
17 |
This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings |
Home Team in CAPS |
(N) Denotes Neutral Site |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tuesday, November 18 |
|
|
|
Favorite |
Underdog |
Pred. Spread |
Approx. Score |
Northern Illinois |
KENT STATE |
4 |
28-24 |
|
|
|
|
Wednesday, November 19 |
|
|
|
Favorite |
Underdog |
Pred. Spread |
Approx. Score |
Ball State |
CENTRAL MICHIGAN |
11 |
41-28 |
|
|
|
|
Thursday, November 20 |
|
|
|
Favorite |
Underdog |
Pred. Spread |
Approx. Score |
Miami-Fl |
GEORGIA TECH |
0 |
21-21 to ot |
|
|
|
|
Friday, November 21 |
|
|
|
Favorite |
Underdog |
Pred. Spread |
Approx. Score |
BOWLING GREEN |
Buffalo |
4 |
35-31 |
TOLEDO |
Miami-OH |
3 |
27-24 |
SAN JOSE STATE |
Fresno State |
0 |
28-28 to ot |
|
|
|
|
Saturday, November 15 |
|
|
|
Favorite |
Underdog |
Pred. Spread |
Approx. Score |
OHIO STATE |
Michigan |
30 |
33-3 |
NORTH CAROLINA |
North Carolina St. |
12 |
35-23 |
West Virginia |
LOUISVILLE |
13 |
27-14 |
RUTGERS |
Army |
29 |
32-3 |
Clemson |
VIRGINIA |
5 |
22-17 |
PURDUE |
Indiana |
16 |
35-19 |
VANDERBILT |
Tennessee |
8 |
17-9 |
TEMPLE |
Eastern Michigan |
15 |
27-12 |
MEMPHIS |
Central Florida |
2 |
21-19 |
Colorado State |
WYOMING |
1 |
21-20 |
NOTRE DAME |
Syracuse |
20 |
30-10 |
MISSISSIPPI STATE |
Arkansas |
4 |
24-20 |
TULSA |
Tulane |
29 |
49-20 |
Washington |
WASHINGTON STATE |
11 |
31-20 |
Florida Atlantic |
ARKANSAS STATE |
3 |
31-28 |
PENN STATE |
Michigan State |
20 |
34-14 |
T C U |
Air Force |
22 |
28-6 |
L S U |
Ole Miss |
2 |
28-26 |
Boston College |
WAKE FOREST |
3 |
17-14 |
CALIFORNIA |
Stanford |
7 |
28-21 |
Illinois |
NORTHWESTERN |
3 |
27-24 |
Akron |
OHIO U |
3 |
21-18 |
RICE |
Marshall |
4 |
31-27 |
HOUSTON |
U t e p |
13 |
37-24 |
MIDDLE TENNESSEE |
North Texas |
22 |
42-20 |
KANSAS STATE |
Iowa State |
11 |
42-31 |
Louisiana Tech |
NEW MEXICO STATE |
11 |
28-17 |
Boise State |
NEVADA |
11 |
42-31 |
VIRGINIA TECH |
Duke |
18 |
35-17 |
UTAH |
B y u |
11 |
31-20 |
CINCINNATI |
Pittsburgh |
6 |
23-17 |
East Carolina |
U A B |
13 |
30-17 |
Oregon State |
ARIZONA |
4 |
35-31 |
Iowa |
MINNESOTA |
9 |
30-21 |
FLORIDA INT’L |
La-Monroe |
4 |
28-24 |
TROY |
La-Lafayette |
11 |
42-31 |
MARYLAND |
Florida State |
0 |
24-24 to ot |
OKLAHOMA |
Texas Tech |
3 |
45-42 |
U n l v |
SAN DIEGO STATE |
18 |
32-14 |
HAWAII |
Idaho |
18 |
38-20 |
|
|
|
|
Sunday, November 23 |
|
|
|
Favorite |
Underdog |
Pred. Spread |
Approx. Score |
SOUTH FLORIDA |
Connecticut |
3 |
27-24 |
This Week’s Games–Mean Ratings |
Home Team in CAPS |
(N) Denotes Neutral Site |
|
Tuesday, November 18 |
|
|
Favorite |
Underdog |
Predicted Score |
Northern Illinois |
KENT STATE |
28-23 |
|
|
|
Wednesday, November 19 |
|
|
Favorite |
Underdog |
Predicted Score |
Ball State |
CENTRAL MICHIGAN |
30-24 |
|
|
|
Thursday, November 20 |
|
|
Favorite |
Underdog |
Predicted Score |
GEORGIA TECH |
Miami-Fl |
19-17 |
|
|
|
Friday, November 21 |
|
|
Favorite |
Underdog |
Predicted Score |
Bowling Green |
BUFFALO |
28-26 |
TOLEDO |
Miami-OH |
27-21 |
SAN JOSE STATE |
Fresno State |
28-28 to ot |
|
|
|
Saturday, November 15 |
|
|
Favorite |
Underdog |
Predicted Score |
OHIO STATE |
Michigan |
31-7 |
NORTH CAROLINA |
North Carolina St. |
34-17 |
West Virginia |
LOUISVILLE |
27-21 |
RUTGERS |
Army |
35-16 |
VIRGINIA |
Clemson |
21-21 to ot |
PURDUE |
Indiana |
34-24 |
VANDERBILT |
Tennessee |
20-10 |
TEMPLE |
Eastern Michigan |
28-16 |
MEMPHIS |
Central Florida |
34-28 |
Colorado State |
WYOMING |
20-17 |
NOTRE DAME |
Syracuse |
35-16 |
Arkansas |
MISSISSIPPI STATE |
20-17 |
TULSA |
Tulane |
47-21 |
Washington |
WASHINGTON STATE |
35-34 |
ARKANSAS STATE |
Florida Atlantic |
30-28 |
PENN STATE |
Michigan State |
28-13 |
T C U |
Air Force |
27-12 |
L S U |
Ole Miss |
34-28 |
WAKE FOREST |
Boston College |
24-24 to ot |
CALIFORNIA |
Stanford |
35-24 |
NORTHWESTERN |
Illinois |
28-23 |
Akron |
OHIO U |
34-28 |
RICE |
Marshall |
42-31 |
HOUSTON |
U t e p |
45-34 |
MIDDLE TENNESSEE |
North Texas |
42-24 |
KANSAS STATE |
Iowa State |
40-28 |
Louisiana Tech |
NEW MEXICO STATE |
36-30 |
Boise State |
NEVADA |
28-17 |
VIRGINIA TECH |
Duke |
24-12 |
UTAH |
B y u |
30-21 |
CINCINNATI |
Pittsburgh |
28-24 |
East Carolina |
U A B |
34-24 |
Oregon State |
ARIZONA |
35-34 |
Iowa |
MINNESOTA |
27-24 |
FLORIDA INT’L |
La-Monroe |
34-24 |
TROY |
La-Lafayette |
31-23 |
MARYLAND |
Florida State |
24-23 |
OKLAHOMA |
Texas Tech |
41-38 |
U n l v |
SAN DIEGO STATE |
27-14 |
HAWAII |
Idaho |
42-21 |
|
|
|
Sunday, November 23 |
|
|
Favorite |
Underdog |
Predicted Score |
Connecticut |
SOUTH FLORIDA |
20-19 |
Bowl Outlook by Conference
This week may be the most decisive week in the season in deciding which teams will go to bowls and which teams will stay home. Every conference has at least one key game, and most have multiple key games.
Due to the mediocrity of the ACC and Big East this year, these two leagues may benefit from having a bunch of 6-6 & 7-5 teams. They may take as many as three of the at-large bowl bids, especially if the Sunbelt fails to produce a second seven-win team.
Teams in all CAPS have already accepted invitations to that bowl.
ACC
Both divisions are still very much up for grabs. In the Atlantic Division, Maryland leads today, but Boston College, Wake Forest, and Florida State can still win the division. The Terps can eliminate the Seminoles with a win this week in College Park, but they must still play at BC. Wake Forest hosts BC this week, and a win over the Eagles could give them a piece of the title. However, Maryland holds a tiebreaker edge over Wake if they finish in a two-way tie.
In the Coastal Division, Miami has the lead, but the Hurricanes finish with two tough road games against Georgia Tech and a much-improved North Carolina State. Miami must finish ahead of North Carolina, for the Tar Heels hold the tie-breaker edge. Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, and even Virginia still could win the title, but there are too many possibilities to mention.
Virginia plays Clemson this week, and the winner will be bowl eligible. The loser could still get in with a win in their season finale.
1. Orange Bowl-Miami 10-3 vs. Cincinnati
2. Chick-fil-a-North Carolina 9-3 vs. Kentucky
3. Gator-Virginia Tech 8-4 vs. Missouri
4. Champs Sports-Maryland 8-5 vs. Minnesota
5. Music City-Boston College 8-4 vs. Ole Miss
6. Meineke Car Care-Wake Forest 7-5 vs. Connecticut
7. Eagle Bank-Georgia Tech 7-5 vs. NAVY
8. Emerald-Florida State 7-5 vs. Oregon State
9. Humanitarian-Clemson 6-6 vs. Boise State
10. Texas (at-large)-Virginia 6-6 vs. Memphis
Big East
Cincinnati held onto the lead by winning at Louisville. The Bearcats face Pittsburgh this week, and the winner will be in first place. West Virginia plays at Louisville, and the Mountaineers can move into a first place tie if they win and Pitt beats Cincinnati. Rutgers and Connecticut still have outside chances to win the league.
Louisville and Rutgers still need one win to gain bowl eligibility. In the other part of the equation, Notre Dame can steal either a Gator or Sun Bowl berth that would go to this conference should the Irish get to seven wins. They are 6-4 with a home game against lowly Syracuse this week. The Orangemen just fired Coach Greg Robinson, so they may be motivated to play a big game. Notre Dame’s other game is against Southern Cal. I think the Irish will finish 7-5, and the Sun Bowl will take them.
1. Orange-Cincinnati 10-3 vs. Miami-Fl
2. Sun-Notre Dame 7-5 vs. Arizona
3. St. Petersburg-Pittsburgh 8-4 vs. East Carolina
4. Meineke Car Care-Connecticut 8-4 vs. Wake Forest
5. International-West Virginia 7-5 vs. Central Michigan
6. Papa John’s-South Florida 7-5 vs. Buffalo
7. Motor City (at-large)-Rutgers 7-5 vs. Ball State
8. Independence (at-large)-Louisville 6-6 vs. Bowling Green
Big Ten
Penn State is in the Rose Bowl if they defeat Michigan State. If the Spartans win, then Ohio State is in with a win over Michigan. If both Michigan teams win, then Michigan State is in the Rose Bowl. I’m going with the Nittany Lions to win and close the other loopholes.
Ohio State will more than likely secure an at-large BCS bowl with a win over Michigan. At 10-2, they would trump a second undefeated team from a non-BCS conference. Money is all that matters in these bowls, and the Fiesta or Sugar Bowl would take the Buckeyes before considering a 12-0 Boise State or a 13-0 Ball State.
Illinois is still one win shy of gaining a bowl bid, and they must beat Northwestern this week. If the Wildcats win, as I believe will happen, then the Motor City Bowl will need to search for an at-large team.
I believe an excellent opportunity will present itself should Illinois lose and Ball State and Boise State both run the table. The Motor City Bowl could strike a deal with the Humanitarian Bowl so that Boise State could be freed up to play Ball State in a battle of the unbeatens.
1. Rose-Penn State 11-1 vs. Southern Cal
2. Fiesta-Ohio State 10-2 vs. Oklahoma
3. Capital One-Michigan State 9-3 vs. Georgia
4. Outback-Northwestern 9-3 vs. South Carolina
5. Champs Sports-Minnesota 8-4 vs. Maryland
6. Alamo-Iowa 7-5 vs. Nebraska
7. Insight-Wisconsin 7-5 vs. Kansas
8. Motor City-No Team Available
Big 12
This is where all the big action takes place. Texas Tech ventures to Norman to take on Oklahoma this week, and I’m going with OU to win. If the Sooners then win at Oklahoma State the following week, then the Big 12 South will end in a three-way tie between Tech, OU, and Texas (assuming Texas beats A&M). The tiebreaker for the Big 12 uses highest BCS ranking, and Texas is currently ahead of Oklahoma. Would OU jump UT if they beat Tech and Oklahoma State? I think it’s possible, but not probable. So, in a three-way tie, I’m guessing Texas would be the lucky team.
In the North, Missouri has already secured a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game. The Tigers have already played Texas, and the Longhorns whipped them. A rematch would be much closer in my opinion, and the Tigers would have close to a 50-50 chance of winning this time around. Should the eventual South Division champion lose to Missouri, then it will give Southern Cal a chance to move up to the BCS Championship game. A USC-Florida game would be the best possible title fight.
With Kansas State losing last week, this league is now guaranteed to come up short in its bowl obligations. In fact, it will be two teams short. That’s too bad for the Independence Bowl, because I believe it will have to search for two at-large teams.
1. BCS National Championship-Texas 12-1 vs. Florida
2. Fiesta-Oklahoma 11-1 vs. Ohio State
3. Cotton-Texas Tech 11-1 vs. LSU
4. Gator-Missouri 10-3 vs. Virginia Tech
5. Holiday-Oklahoma State 9-3 vs. California
6. Alamo-Nebraska 7-5 vs. Iowa
7. Insight-Kansas 6-6 vs. Wisconsin
8. Independence-No Qualifying Team
9. Texas-No Qualifying team
C-USA
As I expected last week, Houston beat Tulsa to forge a three-way tie at the top of the West Division. Rice is the third of the trio, and the Owls still host Houston. Tulsa still has a tough road game at Marshall. So, any one of these three could end up in the C-USA Championship Game.
In the East, East Carolina is going to limp home with the title, but the Pirates are playing a good 10 to 13 points weaker in November than they did in September. The only way Memphis or Marshall could supplant ECU is if the Pirates lose at UAB and at home to Marshall in the final game. Look for ECU to beat UAB and clinch the division this week.
The good news for this conference is there will be enough bowl eligible teams to fill the six bowl allotments, and if UTEP can win one more game, there could be an extra bowl eligible team. The Miners have a lot of digging to do, as they close at Houston and at ECU. Southern Mississippi will become bowl eligible when they beat SMU in two weeks.
1. Liberty-Houston 9-4 vs. Vanderbilt
2. St. Petersburg-East Carolina 8-5 vs. Pittsburgh
3. G M A C-Rice 8-4 vs. Western Michigan
4. Armed Forces-Tulsa 10-2 vs. U N L V
5. Texas-Memphis 7-5 vs. Virginia
6. New Orleans-Southern Miss. 6-6 vs. Troy
Independent
Navy is the only team that definitely knows what bowl it will be playing in this year. The Midshipmen have already accepted a bid to the first Eagle Bank Bowl. If Georgia Tech is the ACC representative, it will pit Paul Johnson against his former team in a triple option challenge.
Notre Dame will earn a bowl bid with a win over Syracuse this week. The Gator Bowl could take them in lieu of a really good Big 12 team, but the Sun Bowl is a more likely destination.
1. Sun-Notre Dame 7-5 vs. Arizona
2. Eagle Bank-NAVY 7-5 vs. Georgia Tech
M A C
Other than the Oklahoma-Texas Tech game this week, the next most important match could be the one in Mt. Pleasant, Michigan, Wednesday night. Central Michigan hosts Ball State, and this game should be must-watch TV. If Ball State wins this road game, then the Cardinals will be in the cat-bird seat at undefeated stadium. They still would have to beat a tough Western Michigan team in Muncie plus the Eastern champion in the MAC title game, but CMU is the real tough assignment. Central Michigan and Western Michigan have earned bowl bids, and they will go somewhere.
In the East, Bowling Green hosts Buffalo Friday night, and the winner of that game is the division champ. The loser should still finish with seven wins, and that will be enough to get them an at-large invitation to another bowl.
Northern Illinois may have played themselves out of bowl competition. The Huskies are 5-5 and must beat both Kent State and Navy to get to a bowl. I think they will fall one game short.
1. Motor City-Ball State 13-0 vs. Rutgers
2. International-Central Michigan 9-3 vs. West Virginia
3. G M A C-Western Michigan 9-3 vs. Rice
4. Papa John’s (at-large)-Buffalo 7-5 vs. South Florida
5. Independence (at-large)-Bowling Green 7-6 vs. Louisville
Mountain West
If Utah beats BYU this week, then the Utes are going to the Sugar Bowl. The Sugar Bowl would get the last pick of available BCS teams, and Utah will qualify with a win over the Cougars. Should BYU upset their in-state rival, then Utah will drop out of the BCS picture and open up a spot for Boise State or possibly Ball State should the Broncos also lose.
UNLV and Colorado State both need one more win to gain bowl eligibility. If Utah wins, then there will be room for both the Rebels and the Rams in the bowl picture. UNLV must defeat San Diego State, and this appears to be almost a certainty. CSU plays at Wyoming in a big rivalry game, and their task is much more difficult.
1. Sugar-Utah 12-0 vs. Alabama
2. Las Vegas-TCU 10-2 vs. Oregon
3. Poinsettia-BYU 10-2 vs. San Jose State
4. New Mexico-Air Force 8-4 vs. Louisiana Tech
5. Armed Forces-UNLV 6-6 vs. Tulsa
6. Hawaii (at-large)-Colorado State 6-6 vs. Hawaii
Pac-10
All eyes are in Tucson this week. Should Oregon State win on the road at Arizona, the Beavers are a home win over Oregon away from being the Pac-10 Champions and Rose Bowl representative. If Arizona wins or Oregon upsets the Beavers in the season-ender, then Southern Cal will win the Pac-10.
Stanford, UCLA and Arizona State are still mathematically alive in the bowl picture. UCLA would have to win at Arizona State and then upset USC. It won’t happen. Arizona State would have to beat UCLA and Arizona; it could happen, but chances are they won’t win both games. Stanford must defeat Cal this week, but the Bears have about a 60-65% chance of winning. Thus, the Pac-10 could miss out on their allotments by two teams.
1. Rose-Southern Cal 11-1 vs. Penn State
2. Holiday-California 8-4 vs. Oklahoma State
3. Sun-Arizona 8-4 vs. Notre Dame
4. Las Vegas-Oregon 8-4 vs. TCU
5. Emerald-Oregon State 8-4 vs. Florida State
6. Poinsettia-No qualifying team
7. Hawaii- No qualifying team
S E C
This conference has the definite top team in the land, and it isn’t number one Alabama. Florida may be as dominant today as Nebraska was in 1995 and 1997. The Gators could score 100 points this week against Citadel if Urban Meyer allowed them to do so. They will pummel Florida State the following week, and then they should handle Alabama by more than 10 points in the SEC Championship Game. If they lose another game this year it will be a bigger story than the Presidential election!
Alabama will clinch a BCS bowl game with a win over hapless Auburn next week. That game will also eliminate the Tigers and could conceivably cost Tommy Turbeville his job (which would be ridiculous).
Vanderbilt clinched a bowl with their win over Kentucky in Lexington Saturday. The Commodores now have two very winnable games remaining against Tennessee and Wake Forest. Should they finish 8-4, they will deserve the Outback Bowl bid, but I’m guessing they would get snubbed if South Carolina beats Clemson in their final game. However, a Vandy-Northwestern game would stir a lot of interest with the similarities between the two academic institutes of much higher learning.
Ole Miss also became bowl eligible Saturday, and the Rebels could move up to the Cotton Bowl if they could beat a battered LSU team in the Tiger’s Den this week.
Arkansas still has a remote shot at getting to a bowl. The Razorbacks would have to win at Mississippi State and against LSU the following week. For now, I’m calling for them to lose one of those games, so the SEC will fall two teams short in its obligations.
1. National Championship-Florida 12-1 vs. Texas
2. Sugar-Alabama 12-1 vs. Utah
3. Capital One-Georgia 10-2 vs. Michigan State
4. Outback-South Carolina 7-5 vs. Northwestern
5. Cotton-L S U 9-3 vs. Texas Tech
6. Chick-fil-a-Kentucky 7-5 vs. North Carolina
7. Music City-Ole Miss 7-5 vs. Miami
8. Liberty-Vanderbilt 8-4 vs. Houston
9. Independence-No qualifying team
10. Papa John’s-No qualifying team
Sunbelt
The New Orleans Bowl should be decided this week when Troy hosts Louisiana-Lafayette. If ULL wins and then loses at home to Middle Tennessee in two weeks, Florida Atlantic could claim the title with wins at Arkansas State and against Florida International. Both ASU and FIU could get into the championship picture if Troy, ULL, and FAU all lose. For now, let’s just go with Troy to beat ULL and end all the commotion.
If Troy wins this week, there is a good chance that the other teams will beat each other up and leave three teams at 6-6. If a second team does get to seven wins, then they will be assured of an at-large bid to either the Papa John’s or Independence Bowl.
1. New Orleans-Troy 8-4 vs. Southern Miss.
W A C
I have a sneaky suspicion that Boise State could find itself in a heap of trouble this week. The Broncos travel to Reno to take on Nevada. The Wolf Pack took Boise to four overtimes last year at the blue field before losing 69-67. I think Nevada could be waiting to ambush the undefeated Broncos. Boise will be lucky to escape with a win of any type.
Louisiana Tech has emerged as the second best team in the WAC. Second year coach Derek Dooley is the son of former Georgia great Vince Dooley, and he could be on the verge of seeing his name on the rolodexes of several athletics directors at BCS schools. If the Bulldogs win at New Mexico State this week, they will lock up a bowl bid.
Fresno State and San Jose State are both on the skids. The two play Friday night at Spartan Stadium, and the winner will be virtually assured of grabbing a bowl. The loser won’t be eliminated, but their road will be quite rough.
Hawaii is 5-5 with three games to go. They should beat Idaho this week, and Washington State the following week to earn a bid to the Hawaii Bowl.
1. Humanitarian-Boise State 12-0 vs. Clemson
(Boise State could swap with Rutgers and face a 13-0 Ball State team if a deal could be made).
2. New Mexico-Louisiana Tech 8-4 vs. Air Force
3. Hawaii-Hawaii 7-6 vs. Colorado State
4. Poinsettia (at-large)-San Jose State 7-5 vs. B Y U