The PiRate Ratings Are Hard At Work

Welcome back gridiron fans.  The PiRates are back at sea working hard on getting their treasure for the 2017-18 season.

There will be a few tweaks to the formulas this season as we refine our ratings to make them as accurate as possible, and we are excited about it.

Tweak #1: Our first tweak involves increasing the alteration of each college football teams’ rate of adjustment as it applies to depth concerns.  If a team is stacked two-deep with talent, they should be able to endure a long, hard season.  But, if the team is only good in their starting lineup, and they lack the depth, they will weaken as the season goes on.  Consider two teams, State and Tech.  State and Tech are about equal in talent in their starting lineups, and on August 25, they are exactly the same in power rating.  For the sake of argument, let’s say they both look like 9-3 teams in a power 5 conference and have identical ratings of 118.0.

In the month of September, State and Tech both go 4-0 over similar competition, and their statistics show that they are still basically the same in talent and results.  Both teams ratings go up, but State’s go up a tad more than Tech’s, due to the depth issue.  Through four games, it won’t be all that much, and now on the First Monday in October, State is now 122.5, and Tech is 121.8.

In October, State and Tech both go 3-1 to sit at 7-1 with four games to go.  Both teams have lost some key players by now, but State has plugged in able second-teamers to fill the spots, while Tech has been forced to go with talent not up to Power 5 conference standards.  State’s wins have been a little easier, and their loss was much closer than Tech’s wins and loss.  Now, State has a rating of 123.1, while Tech has fallen a bit to 119.5.

In November, State finishes strong, going 3-1 to finish the regular season at 10-2.  Tech falters going 1-3 to finish 8-4.

We see this every year.  We believe we can factor in this depth issue into our ratings before the season begins, and we can adjust the rate of adjustment during the season as a team sees key players leave the lineup.  It also works in reverse; a team may have a blessing of several new underclassmen beginning to contribute.

Look at Georgia in 1980.  Hershel Walker was a true freshman.  In the second half of the season opener against Tennessee, Coach Vince Dooley inserted Walker into the game with the Bulldogs trailing by double-digits, and Walker turned the game around in his first 10 carries.  Georgia won the game, and Walker led the Bulldogs to an undefeated National Championship.  Had this new twist of our ratings been in effect then, The Bulldogs might have improved by an unprecedented 10 points between game one and game two.  As it was then, it took several weeks until Georgia’s rating really reflected their power, all because of one freshman.

This can just as easily happen to an average team that loses a couple of key players.  There have been instances when a team has lost a dozen key players by the end of October.  If it is Alabama, the Crimson Tide might be five points weaker than they would have been with the dozen players still healthy.  But, if it is Iowa State, the Cyclones might be 15 points weaker with the loss of these dozen players.

Going back to the unexpected bonanza, what if a team has five or six redshirt freshmen that have displaced upperclassmen in the starting lineup?  Obviously, this team must now be better talent-wise if starters have been replaced  (unless the coach has thrown in the towel on the season and is looking to the future).  What started as a so-so season may continue as a better season because the surprising advancement of the freshmen has made this team a touchdown better than it was earlier in the season.

The PiRate Ratings will adjust for this during the season by increasing or decreasing the adjustment rate of the teams after each Saturday.  Because the PiRate Ratings always show a total average of 100.0, that means teams might lose ground in the ratings after a good game, because other teams now earn more bonus for their play on the field.  It will be a work in progress, but in the end, we believe it will lead to more accurate ratings.

 

Tweak #2: Our basketball ratings have always been Four Factors-based.  We have three different algorithms using the Four Factors Data.  Football also has its factors.  In fact, in football, there are five factors.  They are, in order of importance: Explosiveness, Efficiency, Field Position, Finishing Drives, and Turnovers.   You can find excellent content online about these factors–some explain in detail like a thesis, while others give you a quick outline.

For our purposes, we have changed how we use the box scores of the games in our updating formula.  We will look more at Explosiveness and Efficiency when we update the teams’ ratings every week.  Additionally, we will keep an unpublished running score on how consistent teams are in being able to move the ball and stop the movement of the other team.  Which leads us to our big breakthrough for 2017-18.

Big Breakthrough

Have you ever noticed that over the course of an era, a team may celebrate a national championship or conference championship when they appear to not be as good as prior teams or soon see future teams that look better but do not win the championship?  You have probably seen that a really good team goes 10-2 or 11-1 and demolishes most of their opponents but suffered a terrible upset.  Then, that team runs the table but wins most of their games by nice amounts but by no means blowouts.

Think of a team that wins 55-17 and 38-10 or something similar for most of the season and then falls 31-27 to a mediocre team.  This team leads the nation in total offense or scoring defense, but they always fall a game short of the accomplishment.  But, then along comes a season where this school wins 31-20, 27-14 or something similar and runs the table.  They finish well down in total offense and near the top in scoring defense, but they go undefeated.

We have seen this happen multiple times in the last 30 years.  The dominating team is not as consistent as the team that went undefeated, and in three out of 10 games, the less consistent power may be two touchdowns better than the undefeated champion.  However, 70% of the time, the undefeated champion will be better than the dominating team.

The PiRates have tried to assign value or lack of value to the consistency of a team, but this is something that takes a good sampling of games.  This adjustment will be used in November after all teams have played 2/3 of their regular season schedule.  By then, we should have a grasp of what teams are staying consistent, and what teams are all over the map.  We will not adjust their ratings, because you never know if your inconsistent team will deviate 14 points above their rating or 14 points below.  What we will do is search for consistency when we select our Money Line plays.  We might be crazy, because we are coming off two consecutive profitable Money Line seasons (just for fun and not real wagering), so we might be cutting off our noses to spite our faces.

Enjoy your summer.  Football season will be here before you know it.  The PiRates are actually ahead of schedule this year with their college football updates, and we should have enough time to expand our preseason coverage this year.

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The PiRates Have Come Ashore for 2010

Ahoy Mates!

It’s August again.  Can you believe it?  It seemed like yesterday that Alabama was being crowned national champs and New Orleans was winning the Super Bowl.

The PiRates are ready to begin their preseason coverage.  Beginning tomorrow, we will preview one FBS conference per day for 12 days.  Following that, we will preview each of the NFL divisional races over the next eight days.

Coming August 30, we will debut the College PiRate Ratings and spreads for the first week of the season.

We are really excited about our selections for this season.  We offer the best deal on the Internet.  For just $5 a week, you can purchase our selections that finished 94-61-2 (60.6%) last year.  This year, we debut our whole season value package.  For just $75, you can buy our picks for the entire season, which includes the college bowls and NFL playoffs!

Go to www.piratings.webs.com for more.  You can buy the entire season until September 29.  Beginning August 30, you can purchase our weekly picks.

Coming tomorrow–The Sunbelt Conference preview.  Is a new dominant SBC team emerging?

PiRate Football Ratings Return in August

Hello to all football fans.  The PiRate Ratings are already undergoing their initial statistical compilation for the 2010-2011 football season.  We will begin previewing the FBS conference races in Mid-August and the NFL Divisions after that.

The ratings will be tweaked a little again this season as we change the weightings of the information we use to keep up to date with what wins in football these days.

Once again, we will offer picks for the unbelievably low price of $5 a week, and we will be adding the option of purchasing all our college and pro picks for the season for the 18 weeks of the regular College/Pro seasons plus the Bowls and NFL Playoffs for $75, a 25% discount!  Go to our sister site at www.piratings.webs.com in August to purchase either plan.

PiRate Ratings College Picks For 2008-2009 Bowl Season

PiRate Ratings For 2008-2009 Bowls

 

If you are a regular reader of this blog, you obviously know that I no longer have much use for the college bowls, and I don’t watch them any more.  They have been reduced to little more than the equivalent of the NIT in college basketball, and even the BCS National Championship Game is bogus in my eyes.  There is no way a computer should decide that Oklahoma and Florida are any better than Texas, Southern Cal, Penn State, or even Utah, Alabama, or Boise State.  If the NCAA wants to keep this bogus system intact, they will do it without my support.  Not only do I not watch and support the bowls, I do not patronize the bowl sponsors.  If enough people let these sponsors know that their endorsements of these games do not help their bottom line and may actually harm it, they will stop infusing the money needed to make these games happen.  Without the money, there will be no bowl games.  That is the only method that will bring about a playoff system.

 

Here is a list of the bowl games, with the times and networks.  Following this are the PiRate and Mean Ratings for these games.  I will not preview any of the games. 

 

Day	Date	Time EST	Bowl	City	Network	Team	Team
Sat	D. 20	11:00	Eagle Bank	Washington DC	ESPN	Wake Forest	Navy
Sat	D. 20	2:30	New Mexico	Albuquerque	ESPN	Colorado State	Fresno State
Sat	D. 20	4:30	St. Petersburg	St. Petersburg	ESPN 2	South Florida	Memphis
Sat	D. 20	8:00	Las Vegas	Las Vegas	ESPN	B Y U	Arizona
Sun	D. 21	8:15	New Orleans	New Orleans	ESPN	Troy	Southern Miss.
Tue	D. 23	8:00	Poinsettia	San Diego	ESPN	Boise State	T C U
Wed	D. 24	8:00	Hawaii	Honolulu	ESPN	Hawaii	Notre Dame
Fri	D. 26	8:00	Motor City	Detroit	ESPN	Central Michigan	Florida Atlantic
Sat	D. 27	1:00	Meineke Car Care	Charlotte	ESPN	North Carolina	West Virginia
Sat	D. 27	4:30	Champs Sports	Orlando	ESPN	Florida State	Wisconsin
Sat	D. 27	8:00	Emerald	San Francisco	ESPN	California	Miami (Fl.)
Sun	D. 28	8:15	Independence	Shreveport	ESPN	Louisiana Tech	Northern Illinois
Mon	D. 29	3:00	PapaJohns	Birmingham	ESPN	N. C. State	Rutgers
Mon	D. 29	8:00	Alamo	San Antonio	ESPN	Northwestern	Missouri
Tue	D. 30	4:30	Humanitarian	Boise	ESPN	Nevada	Maryland
Tue	D. 30	8:00	Texas	Houston	NFL	Western Michigan	Rice
Tue	D. 30	8:00	Holiday	San Diego	ESPN	Oregon	Oklahoma State
Wed	D. 31	12:00	Armed Forces	Ft. Worth	ESPN	Air Force	Houston
Wed	D. 31	2:00	Sun	El Paso	CBS	Oregon State	Pittsburgh
Wed	D. 31	3:30	Music City	Nashville	ESPN	Vanderbilt	Boston College
Wed	D. 31	5:30	Insight	Tempe	NFL	Kansas	Minnesota
Wed	D. 31	7:30	Chick-fil-a	Atlanta	ESPN	Georgia Tech	L S U
Thu	J. 1	11:00	Outback	Tampa	ESPN	Iowa	South Carolina
Thu	J. 1	1:00	Capital One	Orlando	ABC	Georgia	Michigan State
Thu	J. 1	1:00	Gator	Jacksonville	CBS	Clemson	Nebraska
Thu	J. 1	4:30	Rose	Pasadena	ABC	Southern Cal	Penn State
Thu	J. 1	8:30	Orange	Miami	Fox	Virginia Tech	Cincinnati
Fri	J. 2	2:00	Cotton	Dallas	Fox	Texas Tech	Ole Miss
Fri	J. 2	5:00	Liberty	Memphis	ESPN	East Carolina	Kentucky
Fri	J. 2	8:00	Sugar	New Orleans	Fox	Alabama	Utah
Sat	J. 3	12:00	International	Toronto	ESPN 2	Connecticut	Buffalo
Mon	J. 5	8:00	Fiesta	Glendale	Fox	Texas	Ohio State
Tue	J. 6	8:00	G M A C	Mobile	ESPN	Tulsa	Ball State
Thu	J. 8	8:00	BCS Championship	Miami	Fox	Florida	Oklahoma

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
2008-09 Bowl Schedule
					Pred.
Date	Bowl	Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
D. 20	Eagle Bank	Navy	Wake Forest	2	14-12
D. 20	New Mexico	Colorado State	Fresno State	5	31-26
D. 20	St. Petersburg	South Florida	Memphis	17	38-21
D. 20	Las Vegas	Arizona	B Y U	8	35-27
D. 21	New Orleans	Troy	Southern Miss.	8	35-27
D. 23	Poinsettia	T C U	Boise State	0	21-21 to OT
D. 24	Hawaii	Notre Dame	Hawaii	1	20-19
D. 26	Motor City	C. Michigan	Florida Atlantic	7	38-31
D. 27	Meineke Car Care	West Virginia	North Carolina	5	24-19
D. 27	Champs Sports	Florida State	Wisconsin	7	34-27
D. 27	Emerald	California	Miami (Fl)	17	31-14
D. 28	Independence	N. Illinois	Louisiana Tech	2	20-18
D. 29	PapaJohns	Rutgers	N. Carolina St.	11	31-20
D. 29	Alamo	Missouri	Northwestern	8	31-23
D. 30	Humanitarian	Nevada	Maryland	1	31-30
D. 30	Texas	Rice	Western Michigan	0	31-31 to OT
D. 30	Holiday	Oregon	Oklahoma St.	6	34-28
D. 31	Armed Forces	Houston	Air Force	2	30-28
D. 31	Sun	Oregon State	Pittsburgh	1	28-27
D. 31	Music City	Boston College	Vanderbilt	1	17-16
D. 31	Insight	Kansas	Minnesota	17	31-14
D. 31	Chick-fil-a	Georgia Tech	L S U	6	30-24
J. 1	Outback	Iowa	South Carolina	9	26-17
J. 1	Capital One	Georgia	Michigan State	11	31-20
J. 1	Gator	Clemson	Nebraska	5	28-23
J. 1	Rose	Southern Cal	Penn State	9	23-14
J. 1	Orange	Cincinnati	Virginia Tech	1	21-20
J. 2	Cotton	Ole Miss	Texas Tech	1	38-37
J. 2	Liberty	Kentucky	East Carolina	3	24-21
J. 2	Sugar	Alabama	Utah	7	20-13
J. 3	International	Connecticut	Buffalo	1	28-27
J. 5	Fiesta	Texas	Ohio State	1	35-34
J. 6	G M A C	Ball State	Tulsa	6	41-35
J. 8	BCS Championship	Florida	Oklahoma	2	44-42

 

This Week’s Games–Mean Ratings
2008-09 Bowl Schedule
				Pred.
Date	Bowl	Favorite	Underdog	Score
D. 20	Eagle Bank	Wake Forest	Navy	21-20
D. 20	New Mexico	Colorado State	Fresno State	27-27 to ot
D. 20	St. Petersburg	South Florida	Memphis	21-10
D. 20	Las Vegas	Arizona	B Y U	28-27
D. 21	New Orleans	Troy	Southern Miss.	31-28
D. 23	Poinsettia	T C U	Boise State	21-21 to ot
D. 24	Hawaii	Notre Dame	Hawaii	21-19
D. 26	Motor City	C. Michigan	Florida Atlantic	35-28
D. 27	Meineke Car Care	West Virginia	North Carolina	24-23
D. 27	Champs Sports	Florida State	Wisconsin	30-24
D. 27	Emerald	California	Miami (Fl)	27-20
D. 28	Independence	N. Illinois	Louisiana Tech	30-28
D. 29	PapaJohns	Rutgers	N. Carolina St.	35-30
D. 29	Alamo	Missouri	Northwestern	38-31
D. 30	Humanitarian	Nevada	Maryland	30-28
D. 30	Texas	Rice	W. Michigan	38-38 to ot
D. 30	Holiday	Oklahoma St.	Oregon	35-34
D. 31	Armed Forces	Air Force	Houston	33-31
D. 31	Sun	Oregon State	Pittsburgh	28-26
D. 31	Music City	Boston College	Vanderbilt	13-7
D. 31	Insight	Kansas	Minnesota	38-31
D. 31	Chick-fil-a	Georgia Tech	L S U	41-34
J. 1	Outback	Iowa	South Carolina	26-21
J. 1	Capital One	Georgia	Michigan State	27-24
J. 1	Gator	Clemson	Nebraska	31-30
J. 1	Rose	Southern Cal	Penn State	17-12
J. 1	Orange	Cincinnati	Virginia Tech	16-16 to ot
J. 2	Cotton	Texas Tech	Ole Miss	41-33
J. 2	Liberty	East Carolina	Kentucky	27-24
J. 2	Sugar	Alabama	Utah	21-20
J. 3	International	Connecticut	Buffalo	20-17
J. 5	Fiesta	Texas	Ohio State	34-27
J. 6	G M A C	Ball State	Tulsa	35-30
J. 8	Nat’l Championship	Florida	Oklahoma	38-38 to ot

 

For those who desire a playoff and want to see the results of a simulated version of my proposed 2008-2009 season, tune in Sunday, December 21, for the quarterfinal round.  The first round of my 12-team simulation was played last week, with Ohio State defeating Texas Tech, Southern Cal beating Virginia Tech, Boise State upsetting Penn State, and Utah edging Cincinnati.

 

The quarterfinal matches pit Ohio State against Florida, Southern Cal against Alabama, Boise State against Oklahoma, and Utah against Texas.  The results and stats of this round will be posted Sunday, December 21, around Noon Eastern Time.

PiRate Ratings For College Football–Week of: December 9, 2008

NCAA Regular Season Summation

 

Congratulations go to Oklahoma and Florida, and my condolences go to Texas, Southern Cal, and Penn State, and Alabama.  Some biased poll voters, a couple of computer geeks, and a couple of sports elitists have determined that the Sooners and Gators are a couple hundredths of a percentage point better than the rest of the pack and deserve to play for the national title.

 

Florida lost their one game at home.  Oklahoma lost their one game on a neutral field to one of the other teams up for consideration.  Alabama’s loss on a neutral field to Florida is the exact same situation.  Texas lost on the road to an undefeated Texas Tech team on the final play of the game.  Southern Cal lost on the road at Oregon State with one late play figuring greatly in the outcome.  Penn State lost on the road at Iowa on the final play of the game.  So, the computers can tell us that Florida and Oklahoma are the two most deserving? 

 

Here are the final regular season PiRate Top 25 and the PiRate Ratings by conference:

 

NCAA Top 25 For 2-Dec-2008
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Florida	140	12	1
2	Oklahoma	139	12	1
3	Southern Cal	131	11	1
4	Texas	128	11	1
5	Ohio St.	127	10	2
6	Alabama	125	12	1
7	Penn St.	125	11	1
8	Ole Miss	121	8	4
9	Texas Tech	120	11	1
10	Boise State	120	12	0
11	T C U	120	10	2
12	Oregon	120	9	3
13	Utah	118	12	0
14	Iowa	117	8	4
15	Rutgers	117	7	5
16	California	116	8	4
17	Georgia	115	9	3
18	Oklahoma St.	114	9	3
19	Arizona	114	7	5
20	Clemson	113	7	5
21	Oregon State	113	8	4
22	Missouri	113	9	4
23	Florida State	112	8	4
24	Pittsburgh	112	9	3
25	Cincinnati	110	11	2
Note: Ratings rounded to nearest whole number
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Clemson	4-4	7-5	113	68	45
Florida State	5-3	8-4	112	70	42
North Carolina State	4-4	6-6	106	70	36
Boston College	5-3*	9-4	104	63	41
Wake Forest	4-4	7-5	104	56	48
Maryland	4-4	7-5	101	62	39
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Virginia Tech	5-3*+	9-4	109	67	42
Georgia Tech	5-3	9-3	109	68	41
North Carolina	4-4	8-4	105	66	39
Miami	4-4	7-5	102	60	42
Virginia	3-5	5-7	100	58	42
Duke	1-7	4-8	93	60	33

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Rutgers	5-2	7-5	117	70	47
Pittsburgh	5-2	9-3	112	66	46
Cincinnati	6-1	11-2	110	64	46
West Virginia	5-2	8-4	110	65	45
South Florida	2-5	7-5	106	68	38
Connecticut	3-4	7-5	102	64	38
Louisville	1-6	5-7	91	57	34
Syracuse	1-6	3-9	89	56	33

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Ohio State	7-1	10-2	127	71	56
Penn State	7-1	11-1	125	76	49
Iowa	5-3	8-4	117	72	45
Wisconsin	3-5	7-5	107	71	36
Northwestern	5-3	9-3	105	64	41
Michigan State	6-2	9-3	104	64	40
Purdue	2-6	4-8	103	67	36
Illinois	3-5	5-7	102	65	37
Michigan	2-6	3-9	96	57	39
Minnesota	3-5	7-5	92	58	34
Indiana	1-7	3-9	79	54	25

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Missouri	5-3*	9-4	113	74	39
Kansas	4-4	7-5	109	67	42
Nebraska	5-3	8-4	108	70	38
Colorado	2-6	5-7	95	57	38
Kansas State	2-6	5-7	92	67	25
Iowa State	0-8	2-10	86	57	29
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Oklahoma	7-1+	12-1	139	97	42
Texas	7-1	11-1	128	82	46
Texas Tech	7-1	11-1	120	85	35
Oklahoma State	5-3	9-3	114	71	43
Baylor	2-6	4-8	106	68	38
Texas A&M	2-6	4-8	90	56	34

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
East Carolina	6-2+	9-4	99	62	37
Southern Miss.	4-4	6-6	97	64	33
Memphis	4-4	6-6	92	61	31
Marshall	3-5	4-8	89	58	31
Central Florida	3-5	4-8	88	46	42
U A B	3-5	4-8	84	51	33
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Tulsa	7-1*	10-3	103	72	31
Rice	7-1	9-3	97	66	31
Houston	6-2	7-5	97	67	30
U T E P	4-4	5-7	87	59	28
S M U	0-8	1-11	78	57	21
Tulane	1-7	2-10	69	50	19

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Navy		8-4	104	61	43
Notre Dame		6-6	98	58	40
Army		3-9	82	46	36

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Bowling Green	4-4	6-6	103	68	35
Buffalo	5-3+	8-5	101	68	33
Temple	4-4	5-7	96	57	39
Ohio U	3-5	4-8	91	51	40
Kent State	3-5	4-8	89	58	31
Akron	3-5	5-7	89	60	29
Miami (O)	1-7	2-10	81	54	27
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Ball State	8-0	12-1	109	73	36
Western Michigan	6-2	9-3	100	63	37
Northern Illinois	5-3	6-6	98	59	39
Central Michigan	6-2	8-4	97	68	29
Eastern Michigan	2-6	3-9	88	59	29
Toledo	2-6	3-9	85	55	30

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
T C U	7-1	10-2	120	68	52
Utah	8-0	12-0	118	70	48
Brigham Young	6-2	10-2	106	67	39
Air Force	5-3	8-4	95	58	37
Colorado State	4-4	6-6	93	60	33
New Mexico	2-6	4-8	93	56	37
UNLV	2-6	5-7	85	56	29
Wyoming	1-7	4-8	85	51	34
San Diego State	1-7	2-10	76	49	27

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Southern Cal	7-1	11-1	131	72	59
Oregon	7-2	9-3	120	77	43
California	6-3	8-4	116	73	43
Arizona	5-4	7-5	114	75	39
Oregon State	7-2	8-4	113	74	39
Stanford	4-5	5-7	106	64	42
Arizona State	4-5	5-7	103	63	40
U C L A	3-6	4-8	100	57	43
Washington	0-9	0-12	81	54	27
Washington State	1-8	2-11	74	49	25

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Florida	7-1+	12-1	140	86	54
Georgia	6-2	9-3	115	73	42
South Carolina	4-4	7-5	108	63	45
Tennessee	3-5	5-7	107	62	45
Kentucky	2-6	6-6	102	62	40
Vanderbilt	4-4	6-6	100	55	45
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Alabama	8-0	12-1	125	69	56
Ole Miss	5-3	8-4	121	74	47
L S U	3-5	7-5	106	68	38
Arkansas	2-6	5-7	102	68	34
Auburn	2-6	5-7	102	56	46
Mississippi State	2-6	4-8	97	55	42

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Troy	6-1	8-4	105	69	36
Florida Atlantic	4-3	6-6	90	61	29
Middle Tennessee	3-4	5-7	90	58	32
Arkansas State	4-3	6-6	89	59	30
Florida International	3-4	5-7	89	58	31
Louisiana-Lafayette	5-2	6-6	88	66	22
Louisiana-Monroe	3-4	4-8	87	56	31
* Western Kentucky	0-0	2-10	79	49	30
North Texas	0-7	1-11	70	55	15
* Western Kentucky will become eligible in 2009
Their games will not count in the SBC Standings in 2008

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Boise State	8-0	12-0	120	74	46
Nevada	5-3	7-5	102	73	29
Louisiana Tech	5-3	7-5	94	56	38
Utah State	3-5	3-9	93	57	36
Hawaii	5-3	7-6	93	55	38
Fresno State	4-4	7-5	88	61	27
San Jose State	4-4	6-6	85	53	32
New Mexico State	1-7	3-9	74	48	26
Idaho	1-7	2-10	73	57	16

 

Here is the bowl schedule

 

Date	Time EST	Bowl	City	Team	Team
D. 20	11:00	Eagle Bank	Washington DC	Wake Forest	Navy
D. 20	2:30	New Mexico	Albuquerque	Colorado State	Fresno State
D. 20	4:30	St. Petersburg	St. Petersburg	South Florida	Memphis
D. 20	8:00	Las Vegas	Las Vegas	B Y U	Arizona
D. 21	8:15	New Orleans	New Orleans	Troy	Southern Miss.
D. 23	8:00	Poinsettia	San Diego	Boise State	T C U
D. 24	8:00	Hawaii	Honolulu	Hawaii	Notre Dame
D. 26	8:00	Motor City	Detroit	Central Michigan	Florida Atlantic
D. 27	1:00	Meineke Car Care	Charlotte	North Carolina	West Virginia
D. 27	4:30	Champs Sports	Orlando	Florida State	Wisconsin
D. 27	8:00	Emerald	San Francisco	California	Miami (Fl.)
D. 28	8:15	Independence	Shrevport	Louisiana Tech	Northern Illinois
D. 29	3:00	PapaJohns	Birmingham	N. C. State	Rutgers
D. 29	8:00	Alamo	San Antonio	Northwestern	Missouri
D. 30	4:30	Humanitarian	Boise	Nevada	Maryland
D. 30	8:00	Texas	Houston	Western Michigan	Rice
D. 30	8:00	Holiday	San Diego	Oregon	Oklahoma State
D. 31	12:00	Armed Forces	Ft. Worth	Air Force	Houston
D. 31	2:00	Sun	El Paso	Oregon State	Pittsburgh
D. 31	3:30	Music City	Nashville	Vanderbilt	Boston College
D. 31	5:30	Insight	Tempe	Kansas	Minnesota
D. 31	7:30	Chick-fil-a	Atlanta	Georgia Tech	L S U
J. 1	11:00	Outback	Tampa	Iowa	South Carolina
J. 1	1:00	Capital One	Orlando	Georgia	Michigan State
J. 1	1:00	Gator	Jacksonville	Clemson	Nebraska
J. 1	4:30	Rose	Pasadena	Southern Cal	Penn State
J. 1	8:30	Orange	Miami	Virginia Tech	Cincinnati
J. 2	2:00	Cotton	Dallas	Texas Tech	Ole Miss
J. 2	5:00	Liberty	Memphis	East Carolina	Kentucky
J. 2	8:00	Sugar	New Orleans	Alabama	Utah
J. 3	12:00	International	Toronto	Connecticut	Buffalo
J. 5	8:00	Fiesta	Glendale	Texas	Ohio State
J. 6	8:00	G M A C	Mobile	Tulsa	Ball State
J. 8	8:00	Nat’l Championship	Miami	Florida	Oklahoma

PiRate Ratings For College Football–Week of: December 3-6, 2008

NCAA Week 15: The Postseason Falls to BieCeS

 

With one weekend remaining in the regular season, the dreadful BCS has suffered from yet another snafu.  Oklahoma is in the Big 12 Championship Game because a computer or two has deemed the Sooners to be a tiny bit better than the Longhorns even though Texas beat them by 10 points on a neutral field.  The Big 12 should have never used BCS ranking to break three-way ties, but then again the BCS shouldn’t be there in the first place for the Big 12 brass to be dumb enough to use it as its tiebreaker.

 

I don’t advocate that Texas should be in that title game instead of Oklahoma or even Texas Tech.  I don’t believe the BCS system to be credible; the vote of Oklahoma over Texas is ridiculous, and if Texas had been voted in by a miniscule amount, it would have been just as ridiculous.

 

If Oklahoma wins this week over an inferior Missouri squad, the Sooners will play for the national title against the winner of the Alabama-Florida game.  Southern Cal, Texas Tech, and Penn State, as well as Utah, Boise State, and Ball State among other top contenders will get no chance to compete for all the marbles.

 

The Top 25 had very little movement after this past weekend.  The bowl situations started to come into focus, as information started to leak out on which bowls want which teams if they are available.  So, when you read the bowl section below, realize that these are not just predictions now; some of the teams are slotted based on leaked information from bowl scouts.

 

Personally, I believe Florida and Southern Cal are the two best teams in the nation.  The Gators’ offense is as good as any college team in 13 years, while the Trojans’ defense is the best college defense in 16 years.

 

NCAA Top 25 For 2-Dec-2008
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Florida	141	11	1
2	Oklahoma	134	11	1
3	Southern Cal	132	10	1
4	Texas	128	11	1
5	Ohio St.	127	10	2
6	Penn St.	125	11	1
7	Alabama	124	12	0
8	Ole Miss	121	8	4
9	Texas Tech	120	11	1
10	Boise State	120	12	0
11	T C U	120	10	2
12	Oregon	120	9	3
13	Utah	118	12	0
14	Missouri	118	9	3
15	Iowa	117	8	4
16	Georgia	115	9	3
17	Ball State	114	12	0
18	California	114	7	4
19	Oklahoma St.	114	9	3
20	Clemson	113	7	5
21	Oregon State	113	8	4
22	Florida State	112	8	4
23	Rutgers	112	6	5
24	Cincinnati	111	10	2
25	Arizona	111	6	5
Note: Ratings rounded to nearest whole number
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Clemson	4-4	7-5	113	68	45
Florida State	5-3	8-4	112	70	42
Boston College	5-3*	9-3	107	65	42
North Carolina State	4-4	6-6	106	70	36
Wake Forest	4-4	7-5	104	56	48
Maryland	4-4	7-5	101	62	39
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Georgia Tech	5-3	9-3	109	68	41
Virginia Tech	5-3*	8-4	106	65	41
North Carolina	4-4	8-4	105	66	39
Miami	4-4	7-5	102	60	42
Virginia	3-5	5-7	100	58	42
Duke	1-7	4-8	93	60	33

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Rutgers	4-2	6-5	112	67	45
Cincinnati	6-1	10-2	111	65	46
West Virginia	4-2	7-4	111	66	45
Pittsburgh	4-2	8-3	109	65	44
Connecticut	3-3	7-4	105	65	40
South Florida	2-4	7-4	105	68	37
Louisville	1-5	5-6	96	59	37
Syracuse	1-6	3-9	89	56	33

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Ohio State	7-1	10-2	127	71	56
Penn State	7-1	11-1	125	76	49
Iowa	5-3	8-4	117	72	45
Wisconsin	3-5	7-5	107	71	36
Northwestern	5-3	9-3	105	64	41
Michigan State	6-2	9-3	104	64	40
Purdue	2-6	4-8	103	67	36
Illinois	3-5	5-7	102	65	37
Michigan	2-6	3-9	96	57	39
Minnesota	3-5	7-5	92	58	34
Indiana	1-7	3-9	79	54	25

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Missouri	5-3*	9-3	118	75	43
Kansas	4-4	7-5	109	67	42
Nebraska	5-3	8-4	108	70	38
Colorado	2-6	5-7	95	57	38
Kansas State	2-6	5-7	92	67	25
Iowa State	0-8	2-10	86	57	29
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Oklahoma	7-1	11-1	134	93	41
Texas	7-1	11-1	128	82	46
Texas Tech	7-1	11-1	120	85	35
Oklahoma State	5-3	9-3	114	71	43
Baylor	2-6	4-8	106	68	38
Texas A&M	2-6	4-8	90	56	34

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
East Carolina	6-2	8-4	98	62	36
Southern Miss.	4-4	6-6	97	64	33
Memphis	4-4	6-6	92	61	31
Marshall	3-5	4-8	89	58	31
Central Florida	3-5	4-8	88	46	42
U A B	3-5	4-8	84	51	33
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Tulsa	7-1*	10-2	104	73	31
Rice	7-1	9-3	97	66	31
Houston	6-2	7-5	97	67	30
U T E P	4-4	5-7	87	59	28
S M U	0-8	1-11	78	57	21
Tulane	1-7	2-10	69	50	19

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Navy		7-4	100	60	40
Notre Dame		6-6	98	58	40
Army		3-8	86	49	37

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Bowling Green	4-4	6-6	103	68	35
Buffalo	5-3	7-5	96	64	32
Temple	4-4	5-7	96	57	39
Ohio U	3-5	4-8	91	51	40
Kent State	3-5	4-8	89	58	31
Akron	3-5	5-7	89	60	29
Miami (O)	1-7	2-10	81	54	27
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Ball State	8-0	12-0	114	75	39
Western Michigan	6-2	9-3	100	63	37
Northern Illinois	5-3	6-6	98	59	39
Central Michigan	6-2	8-4	97	68	29
Eastern Michigan	2-6	3-9	88	59	29
Toledo	2-6	3-9	85	55	30

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
T C U	7-1	10-2	120	68	52
Utah	8-0	12-0	118	70	48
Brigham Young	6-2	10-2	106	67	39
Air Force	5-3	8-4	95	58	37
Colorado State	4-4	6-6	93	60	33
New Mexico	2-6	4-8	93	56	37
UNLV	2-6	5-7	85	56	29
Wyoming	1-7	4-8	85	51	34
San Diego State	1-7	2-10	76	49	27

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Southern Cal	7-1	10-1	132	73	59
Oregon	7-2	9-3	120	77	43
California	5-3	7-4	114	72	42
Oregon State	7-2	8-4	113	74	39
Arizona	4-4	6-5	111	74	37
Arizona State	4-4	5-6	106	65	41
Stanford	4-5	5-7	106	64	42
U C L A	3-5	4-7	99	57	42
Washington	0-8	0-11	83	55	28
Washington State	1-8	2-11	74	49	25

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Florida	7-1	11-1	141	87	54
Georgia	6-2	9-3	115	73	42
South Carolina	4-4	7-5	108	63	45
Tennessee	3-5	5-7	107	62	45
Kentucky	2-6	6-6	102	62	40
Vanderbilt	4-4	6-6	100	55	45
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Alabama	8-0	12-0	124	69	55
Ole Miss	5-3	8-4	121	74	47
L S U	3-5	7-5	106	68	38
Arkansas	2-6	5-7	102	68	34
Auburn	2-6	5-7	102	56	46
Mississippi State	2-6	4-8	97	55	42

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Troy	5-1	7-4	104	68	36
Middle Tennessee	3-3	5-6	92	58	34
Arkansas State	4-2	6-5	90	60	30
Florida Atlantic	4-3	6-6	90	61	29
Louisiana-Monroe	3-4	4-8	87	56	31
Louisiana-Lafayette	4-2	5-6	86	64	22
Florida International	3-4	4-7	86	57	29
* Western Kentucky	0-0	2-9	82	51	31
North Texas	0-7	1-11	70	55	15
* Western Kentucky will become eligible in 2009
Their games will not count in the SBC Standings in 2008

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Boise State	8-0	12-0	120	74	46
Nevada	5-3	7-5	102	73	29
Louisiana Tech	5-3	7-5	94	56	38
Utah State	3-5	3-9	93	57	36
Hawaii	5-3	7-5	91	54	37
Fresno State	4-4	7-5	88	61	27
San Jose State	4-4	6-6	85	53	32
New Mexico State	1-7	3-9	74	48	26
Idaho	1-7	2-10	73	57	16

 

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Wednesday, December 3
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Spread	Approx. Score
Middle Tennessee	LA.-LAFAYETTE	3	34-31
Thursday, December 4
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Spread	Approx. Score
RUTGERS	Louisville	19	31-12
Friday, December 5
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Spread	Approx. Score
Ball State            (Detroit)	Buffalo	18	42-24
Saturday, December 6
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Spread	Approx. Score
Pittsburgh	CONNECTICUT	1	24-23
TULSA	East Carolina	9	40-31
Navy	Army	14	21-7
Boston College	Virginia Tech	1	21-20
CALIFORNIA	Washington	34	44-10
Florida	Alabama	17	31-14
Southern Cal	U C L A	30	30-0
FLA. INT’L	Western Ky.	7	28-21
TROY	Arkansas State	17	38-21
ARIZONA	Arizona State	8	35-27
WEST VIRGINIA	South Florida	9	30-21
Oklahoma	Missouri	16	49-33
Cincinnati	HAWAII	16	26-10

 

This Week’s Games–Mean Ratings
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Wednesday, December 3
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Score
LA.-LAFAYETTE	Middle Tennessee	27-24
Thursday, December 4
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Score
RUTGERS	Louisville	34-21
Friday, December 5
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Score
Ball State            (Detroit)	Buffalo	37-24
Saturday, December 6
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Score
Pittsburgh	CONNECTICUT	21-21 to OT
TULSA	East Carolina	42-34
Navy             (Philadelphia)	Army	35-24
Boston Coll.   (Jacksonville)	Virginia Tech	20-17
CALIFORNIA	Washington	42-10
Florida                 (Atlanta)	Alabama	27-17
Southern Cal	U C L A	34-7
FLA. INT’L	Western Ky.	30-20
TROY	Arkansas State	34-24
ARIZONA	Arizona State	28-20
WEST VIRGINIA	South Florida	24-19
Oklahoma    (Kansas City)	Missouri	44-31
Cincinnati	HAWAII	27-17

 

Bowl Outlook By Conference

 

Teams in all CAPS have already accepted invitations to that bowl.

 

ACC

After having a new team at the top of each division for multiple weeks, Boston College and Virginia Tech both won last week when they had to win.  Now, the winner of their game will advance to the Orange Bowl, while the loser probably drops to the Champs Sports Bowl.

 

With Georgia Tech’s win over Georgia, their hometown bowl will be glad to take the Yellow Jackets.  That bowl prefers a ranked team coming off a win, and Tech fits that bill.

 

Florida State will get the Gator Bowl invitation regardless of how the ACC title game turns out.  The Gator Bowl does not want to have the loser of the title game returning to Jacksonville three weeks later.

 

1. Orange Bowl-Boston College 10-3 vs. Cincinnati

2. Chick-fil-a-Georgia Tech 9-3 vs. L S U

3. Gator-Florida State 8-4 vs. Nebraska

4. Champs Sports-Virginia Tech 8-5 vs. Wisconsin

5. Music City-North Carolina 8-4 vs. Vanderbilt

6. Meineke Car Care-Miami 7-5 vs. West Virginia

7. Eagle Bank-Wake Forest 7-5 vs. NAVY

8. Emerald-Clemson 7-5 vs. California

9. Humanitarian-Maryland 7-5 vs. Nevada

10. Hawaii (at-large)-N.C. State 6-6 vs. Southern Miss.

 

Big East

Cincinnati has clinched a BCS Bowl spot.  The Bearcats are more than likely headed to the Orange Bowl.

 

Notre Dame’s loss to USC means the Irish may not seize one of this league’s bids.  If Rutgers beats Louisville, then there will be six, seven-win bowl eligible teams for six bowls; Notre Dame would not be eligible for a Big East Bowl, so they would become the top 6-6 at-large possibility.  Should Louisville win this week, then Notre Dame will be headed to El Paso.

 

1. Orange-Cincinnati 11-2 vs. Boston College

2. Sun-Rutgers 7-5 vs. Oregon State

3. St. Petersburg-South Florida 7-5 vs. East Carolina

4. Meineke Car Care-West Virginia 8-4 vs. Miami (Fla)

5. International-Connecticut 8-4 vs. Buffalo

6. Papa John’s-Pittsburgh 8-4 vs. Middle Tennessee State

 

Big Ten

Ohio State is almost assured to get the final BCS Bowl bid over Boise State, so the Big Ten will not have enough bowl-eligible teams for their seven allotted bids.  That may open the Motor City Bowl for a possible match of undefeated teams.

 

Although not technically official, Penn State has been mathematically eliminated from moving into the National Championship Game.  Thus, I have them “officially” in the Rose Bowl.

 

1. Rose-PENN STATE 11-1 vs. Southern Cal

2. Fiesta-Ohio State 10-2 vs. Texas

3. Capital One-Michigan State 9-3 vs. Georgia

3. Outback-Iowa 8-4 vs. South Carolina

4. Champs Sports-Wisconsin 7-5 vs. Virginia Tech

5. Alamo-Northwestern 9-3 vs. Missouri

6. Insight-Minnesota 7-5 vs. Kansas

7. Motor City-No qualifying team

 

Big 12

Missouri is being overlooked by everybody but Oklahoma this week, so I expect the Sooners to drill the Tigers.

 

With two teams headed to BCS Bowls, and with Colorado failing to upset Nebraska, this league will fall two teams short.

 

1. BCS National Championship-Oklahoma 12-1 vs. Florida

2. Fiesta-Texas 11-1 vs. Ohio State

3. Cotton-Texas Tech 11-1 vs. Ole Miss

4. Gator-Nebraska 8-4 vs. Florida State

5. Holiday-Oklahoma State 9-3 vs. Oregon

6. Alamo-Missouri 9-4 vs. Northwestern

7. Insight-Kansas 6-6 vs. Minnesota

8. Independence-No Qualifying Team

9. Texas-No Qualifying team

 

C-USA

Tulsa and East Carolina are the two divisional champions, and I believe the Golden Hurricane will win the title game this week.  Rice is the best team in this league as the season ends, but the Owls will not be at the top of the list for those remaining bowl-eligible teams.  Expect to see Rice fall to the Texas Bowl.

 

Unless another bowl chooses them first, Houston may wind up in Ft. Worth playing Air Force in a rematch of a game played in the regular season.  I think Rice would be a better opponent, but the Cougars are the better drawing team. 

 

1. Liberty-Tulsa 11-2 vs. Kentucky

2. St. Petersburg-East Carolina 8-5 vs. South Florida

3. G M A C-Southern Miss. 6-6 vs. Central Michigan

4. Armed Forces-Houston 7-5 vs. Air Force

5. Texas-Rice 9-3 vs. Notre Dame

6. New Orleans-Memphis 6-6 vs. Troy

 

Independent

Navy is headed to the Eagle Bank Bowl regardless of their outcome with Army this week.  We know for sure that Maryland will not be their opponent in a possible in-state rivalry game.  The Terps have final exams that week, and they will not accept a bowl bid during exam week.

 

Notre Dame will still be invited to a bowl at 6-6.  They will be the first 6-6 team invited as an at-large team.  I believe they will be headed to Houston.

 

1. Texas (at-large)-Notre Dame 6-6 vs. Rice

2. Eagle Bank-NAVY 7-5 vs. Miami (Fla.)

 

M A C

Ball State should handle Buffalo this week.  If they do, I expect the Motor City Bowl to make a deal with the WAC to release Boise State to come to Detroit in a battle of the unbeatens.  It will thus become the top non-BCS bowl.

 

The MAC will benefit from the failure of other conferences not being able to fulfill their bowl quotas.  Three more teams (Western Michigan, Central Michigan, and Buffalo) have seven wins, so there will be one extra bowl invitation for the MAC.  I have Western Michigan playing in an at-large bowl, but there is no news leaks about where they might be headed.  I have them headed west based on the fact that Boise State won’t be selected by the Poinsettia Bowl as they have that right.

 

1. Motor City-Ball State 13-0 vs. Boise State

2. International-Buffalo 8-5 vs. Connecticut

3. G M A C-Central Michigan 9-3 vs. Southern Miss.

4. Poinsettia (at-large)-Western Michigan 9-3 vs. T C U

 

Mountain West

Utah is officially a BCS bowl invitee.  It appears that they are headed to the Big Easy to play in the Sugar Bowl.

 

BYU has been to the Las Vegas Bowl the last three years, and I believe the folks in sin city will invite the Cougars a fourth consecutive time.  TCU is still a possibility, but in this time of economic turmoil, I’m guessing it will be a number’s game that comes up craps for the Frogs.

 

1. Sugar-Utah 12-0 vs. Alabama

2. Las Vegas-B Y U 10-2 vs. Arizona

3. Poinsettia-T C U 10-2 vs. Western Michigan

4. New Mexico-Colorado State 6-6 vs. Fresno State

5. Armed Forces-Air Force 8-4 vs. Houston

 

Pac-10

Oregon made the Rose Bowl officials happy when they defeated Oregon State.  Now Southern Cal needs to defeat UCLA to return to Pasadena for another game.

 

Arizona State can still become bowl-eligible with a win at Arizona, but I think the Wildcats have a huge revenge motive that will end the season for the Sun Devils.  Thus, I have the Pac-10 falling two spots shy of fulfilling its obligations.

 

 

1. Rose-Southern Cal 11-1 vs. Penn State

2. Holiday-Oregon 9-3 vs. Oklahoma State

3. Sun-Oregon State 8-4 vs. Rutgers

4. Las Vegas-Arizona 7-5 vs. B Y U

5. Emerald-California 8-4 vs. Wake Forest

6. Poinsettia-No qualifying team

7. Hawaii- No qualifying team

 

S E C

What happens if Florida beats Alabama in overtime or by one point in regulation?  Might there be a rematch in a month for the National Championship?  It’s not going to happen for two reasons.  First, a loss of any kind will put Alabama behind both Oklahoma and Texas.  Second, I believe Florida will win this week by double digits.  No matter which team loses, it will be headed to New Orleans.  A Florida-Utah game would be interesting because of Urban Meyer.

 

There is a rumor going around that the Capital One Bowl could take Ole Miss over Georgia.  I think that rumor has merits, but I don’t expect the Rebels to end up in Orlando.

 

1. National Championship-Florida 12-1 vs. Oklahoma

2. Sugar-Alabama 12-1 vs. Utah

3. Capital One-Georgia 10-2 vs. Ohio State

4. Outback-South Carolina 7-5 vs. Michigan State

5. Cotton-Ole Miss 8-4 vs. Texas Tech

6. Chick-fil-a-L S U 7-5 vs. Georgia Tech

7. Music City-Vanderbilt 6-6 vs. North Carolina

8. Liberty-Kentucky 6-6 vs. Tulsa

9. Independence-No qualifying team

10. Papa John’s-No qualifying team

 

Sunbelt

Troy should beat Arkansas State this weekend to wrap up the SBC title.  They will be the only seven-win team in the league, but it is likely that two six-win teams will receive at-large bids.  The winner of the UL-Lafayette-Middle Tennessee game will likely wind up in Birmingham, while either Arkansas State or Florida Atlantic will take the Independence Bowl bid.  I’m guessing ASU will be picked over FAU.  Of course, if ASU beats Troy, they will head to New Orleans.  Troy would then head to Birmingham, and ULL or MTSU will end up in Shreveport.

 

1. New Orleans-Troy 8-4 vs. Memphis

2. Independence (at-large) Arkansas State 6-6 vs. La. Tech

3. Papa John’s (at-large) Middle Tennessee 6-6 vs. Pittsburgh

 

W A C

The Boise State-Ball State mini-dream game is still full of potential pitfalls.  The Humanitarian Bowl wants to host this game, but Ball State doesn’t want to play Boise State on the blue turf.  Boise State may think Detroit is too close to Muncie, Indiana.  The Independence Bowl has been mentioned as a possible site since it will have to find two at-large teams, but the Independence Bowl is supposed to take a Sunbelt team if they don’t have an SEC team.  Louisiana Tech is a great bet to be the other at-large team in Shreveport.  I believe the Motor City Bowl is the best option.  That will allow the Humanitarian Bowl to take Nevada and cause no further bowl interruptions.  If the big game ends up in Boise, then the ACC will have to be compensated.  They have more than enough eligible teams to meet their obligations. 

 

1. Motor City-Boise State 12-0 vs. Ball State

2. Humanitarian-Nevada 6-6 vs. Maryland

3. New Mexico-Fresno State 7-5 vs. Colorado State

4. Hawaii-Hawaii 7-6 vs. North Carolina State

5. Independence (at-large)-La. Tech 8-4 vs. Arkansas St.

 

 

PiRate Ratings For College Football–Week of November 25-29, 2008

NCAA Week 14: Oh What A Mess!!!

 

The conclusion of the 2008 FBS regular season begins this week and finishes next week.  There are multiple problems with the postseason as of now, and I don’t believe these problems will all be resolved by Saturday, December 6.

 

The national championship will produce controversy no matter which two teams are picked for the game.  Eight or more teams could conceivable have realistic arguments in favor of their being one of the final two.  The system is set up for failure, especially this season.  Except for 2005, this inept method of picking teams has “gotten it wrong” just about every season since its inception.

 

The non-BCS bowl situation couldn’t be more messed up today.  Six bowl will more than likely need at-large entries as the conferences which with they have agreements will not provide enough bowl eligible teams.  The poor Independence bowl will have to find two at-large teams unless a couple of miracle upsets occur this week.

 

NCAA Top 25 For 25-Nov-2008
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Florida	140	10	1
2	Oklahoma	133	10	1
3	Southern Cal	132	9	1
4	Texas	128	10	1
5	Ohio St.	127	10	2
6	Penn St.	125	11	1
7	Texas Tech	122	10	1
8	Missouri	121	9	2
9	Alabama	120	11	0
10	T C U	120	10	2
11	Georgia	119	9	2
12	Utah	118	12	0
13	Oregon State	118	8	3
14	Ole Miss	117	7	4
15	Iowa	117	8	4
16	Boise State	116	11	0
17	Oklahoma St.	115	9	2
18	Oregon	115	8	3
19	California	114	7	4
20	Ball State	113	11	0
21	Florida State	113	8	3
22	Rutgers	112	6	5
23	West Virginia	112	7	3
24	Cincinnati	111	9	2
25	South Carolina	111	7	4
Note: Ratings rounded to nearest whole number even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Florida State	5-3	8-3	113	70	43
Clemson	4-4	6-5	110	66	44
Boston College	4-3	8-3	108	65	43
N. Carolina State	3-4	5-6	106	70	36
Wake Forest	4-4	6-5	102	56	46
Maryland	4-3	7-4	100	61	39
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Virginia Tech	4-3	7-4	106	65	41
Georgia Tech	5-3	8-3	105	64	41
North Carolina	3-4	7-4	105	66	39
Miami	4-3	7-4	102	60	42
Virginia	3-4	5-6	100	58	42
Duke	1-6	4-7	93	60	33

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Rutgers	4-2	6-5	112	67	45
West Virginia	4-1	7-3	112	67	45
Cincinnati	5-1	9-2	111	65	46
Pittsburgh	3-2	7-3	108	65	43
Connecticut	3-3	7-4	105	65	40
South Florida	2-4	7-4	105	68	37
Louisville	1-5	5-6	96	59	37
Syracuse	1-5	3-8	89	56	33

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Ohio State	7-1	10-2	127	71	56
Penn State	7-1	11-1	125	76	49
Iowa	5-3	8-4	117	72	45
Wisconsin	3-5	7-5	107	71	36
Northwestern	5-3	9-3	105	64	41
Michigan State	6-2	9-3	104	64	40
Purdue	2-6	4-8	103	67	36
Illinois	3-5	5-7	102	65	37
Michigan	2-6	3-9	96	57	39
Minnesota	3-5	7-5	92	58	34
Indiana	1-7	3-9	79	54	25

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Missouri	5-2	9-2	121	75	46
Nebraska	4-3	7-4	109	70	39
Kansas	3-4	6-5	106	66	40
Colorado	2-5	5-6	94	56	38
Kansas State	2-6	5-7	92	67	25
Iowa State	0-8	2-10	86	57	29
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Oklahoma	6-1	10-1	133	90	43
Texas	6-1	10-1	128	82	46
Texas Tech	6-1	10-1	122	85	37
Oklahoma State	5-2	9-2	115	69	46
Baylor	2-5	4-7	104	66	38
Texas A&M	2-5	4-7	90	56	34

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Southern Miss.	3-4	5-6	97	64	33
East Carolina	5-2	7-4	94	59	35
Central Florida	3-4	4-7	92	50	42
Memphis	3-4	5-6	89	59	30
Marshall	3-4	4-7	87	56	31
U A B	2-5	3-8	80	51	29
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Tulsa	6-1	9-2	106	73	33
Houston	6-1	7-4	99	67	32
Rice	6-1	8-3	95	64	31
U T E P	4-3	5-6	91	61	30
S M U	0-7	1-10	78	57	21
Tulane	1-6	2-9	72	50	22

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Notre Dame		6-5	98	58	40
Navy		6-4	97	60	37
Army		3-8	86	49	37

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Buffalo	5-2	7-4	99	66	33
Bowling Green	3-4	5-6	98	66	32
Temple	3-4	4-7	94	57	37
Akron	3-4	5-6	91	62	29
Ohio U	2-5	3-8	89	49	40
Kent State	2-5	3-8	86	57	29
Miami (O)	1-6	2-9	83	55	28
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Ball State	7-0	11-0	113	74	39
Western Michigan	6-1	9-2	101	64	37
Northern Illinois	5-3	6-5	101	62	39
Central Michigan	6-1	8-3	100	68	32
Toledo	2-5	3-8	90	58	32
Eastern Michigan	1-6	2-9	84	55	29

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
T C U	7-1	10-2	120	68	52
Utah	8-0	12-0	118	70	48
Brigham Young	6-2	10-2	106	67	39
Air Force	5-3	8-4	95	58	37
Colorado State	4-4	6-6	93	60	33
New Mexico	2-6	4-8	93	56	37
UNLV	2-6	5-7	85	56	29
Wyoming	1-7	4-8	85	51	34
San Diego State	1-7	2-10	76	49	27

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Southern Cal	7-1	9-1	132	73	59
Oregon State	7-1	8-3	118	75	43
Oregon	6-2	8-3	115	73	42
California	5-3	7-4	114	72	42
Arizona	4-4	6-5	111	74	37
Stanford	4-5	5-7	106	64	42
Arizona State	3-4	4-6	105	64	41
U C L A	3-4	4-6	100	57	43
Washington	0-8	0-11	83	55	28
Washington State	1-8	2-10	73	49	24

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Florida	7-1	10-1	140	87	53
Georgia	6-2	9-2	119	73	46
South Carolina	4-4	7-4	111	65	46
Tennessee	2-5	4-7	105	61	44
Kentucky	2-5	6-5	104	63	41
Vanderbilt	4-4	6-5	102	57	45
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Alabama	7-0	11-0	120	68	52
Ole Miss	4-3	7-4	117	71	46
L S U	3-4	7-4	107	68	39
Auburn	2-5	5-6	106	58	48
Mississippi State	2-5	4-7	102	57	45
Arkansas	1-6	4-6	101	67	34

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Troy	5-1	7-4	104	68	36
Arkansas State	3-2	5-5	93	61	32
Middle Tennessee	3-3	5-6	92	58	34
Florida Atlantic	3-3	5-6	92	61	31
La.-Monroe	3-4	4-8	87	56	31
La.-Lafayette	4-2	5-6	86	64	22
Fla. International	3-3	4-6	84	55	29
* Western Ky.	0-0	2-9	82	51	31
North Texas	0-6	1-10	67	53	14
* Western Kentucky will become eligible in 2009 Their games will not count in the SBC Standings in 2008

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Boise State	7-0	11-0	116	72	44
Nevada	4-3	6-5	102	73	29
Louisiana Tech	5-2	7-4	94	56	38
Hawaii	5-3	6-5	92	55	37
Fresno State	4-3	7-4	92	63	29
Utah State	2-5	2-9	88	55	33
San Jose State	4-4	6-6	85	53	32
New Mexico State	1-6	3-8	79	51	28
Idaho	1-7	2-10	73	57	16

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Tuesday, November 25
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Spread	Approx. Score
BALL STATE	Western Michigan	15	38-23
NORTHERN ILLINOIS	Navy	7	27-20
Thursday, November 27
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Spread	Approx. Score
TEXAS	Texas A&M	41	48-7
Friday, November 28
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Spread	Approx. Score
West Virginia	PITTSBURGH	1	21-20
OLE MISS	Mississippi State	18	27-9
Ohio U	MIAMI (O)	3	20-17
EAST CAROLINA	U t e p	6	30-24
TEMPLE	Akron	6	28-22
Central Michigan	EASTERN MICHIGAN	13	37-24
BUFFALO	Kent State	16	37-21
L s u	ARKANSAS	3	31-28
NEBRASKA	Colorado	18	35-17
Bowling Green	TOLEDO	5	31-26
BOISE STATE	Fresno State	27	44-17
ARIZONA STATE	U c l a	8	21-13
Saturday, November 29
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Spread	Approx. Score
ALABAMA	Auburn	17	20-3
TEXAS TECH	Baylor	21	49-28
Florida	FLORIDA STATE	24	42-18
Oklahoma	OKLAHOMA STATE	15	42-27
GEORGIA	Georgia Tech	17	34-17
North Carolina	DUKE	9	31-22
CINCINNATI	Syracuse	25	35-10
WAKE FOREST	Vanderbilt	3	13-10
CLEMSON	South Carolina	2	21-19
BOSTON COLLEGE	Maryland	11	28-17
N.C. STATE	Miami-Fl	7	28-21
VIRGINIA TECH	Virginia	9	23-14
TENNESSEE	Kentucky	4	20-16
Missouri        (Kansas City)	Kansas	15	35-20
MEMPHIS	Tulane	20	38-18
Arkansas State	NORTH TEXAS	23	44-21
Nevada	LA. TECH	5	35-30
Houston	RICE	1	35-34
UTAH STATE	New Mexico St.	12	28-16
Southern Miss.	S M U	16	41-25
Tulsa	MARSHALL	16	40-24
CENTRAL FLORIDA	U a b	15	21-6
FLA. ATLANTIC	Fla. International	11	35-24
OREGON STATE	Oregon	6	34-28
SOUTHERN CAL	Notre Dame	35	35-0
HAWAII	Washington State	23	33-10

 

This Week’s Games–Mean Ratings
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Tuesday, November 25
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Score
BALL STATE	Western Michigan	31-20
Navy	NORTHERN ILLINOIS	31-31 to OT
Thursday, November 27
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Score
TEXAS	Texas A&M	49-14
Friday, November 28
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Score
PITTSBURGH	West Virginia	27-24
OLE MISS	Mississippi State	28-10
Ohio U	MIAMI (O)	28-26
EAST CAROLINA	U t e p	38-30
TEMPLE	Akron	31-29
Central Michigan	EASTERN MICHIGAN	33-20
BUFFALO	Kent State	30-14
L s u	ARKANSAS	35-30
NEBRASKA	Colorado	44-27
Bowling Green	TOLEDO	30-27
BOISE STATE	Fresno State	41-19
ARIZONA STATE	U c l a	31-23
Saturday, November 29
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Score
ALABAMA	Auburn	30-7
TEXAS TECH	Baylor	52-26
Florida	FLORIDA STATE	35-21
Oklahoma	OKLAHOMA STATE	42-35
GEORGIA	Georgia Tech	37-28
North Carolina	DUKE	30-24
CINCINNATI	Syracuse	32-10
WAKE FOREST	Vanderbilt	17-12
CLEMSON	South Carolina	28-26
BOSTON COLLEGE	Maryland	31-21
Miami-Fl	N.C. STATE	31-28
VIRGINIA TECH	Virginia	21-12
TENNESSEE	Kentucky	17-16
Missouri        (Kansas City)	Kansas	42-28
MEMPHIS	Tulane	37-24
Arkansas State	NORTH TEXAS	38-21
Nevada	LA. TECH	38-35
RICE	Houston	35-34
UTAH STATE	New Mexico St.	27-22
Southern Miss.	S M U	34-21
Tulsa	MARSHALL	40-28
CENTRAL FLORIDA	U a b	24-14
FLA. ATLANTIC	Fla. International	38-33
OREGON STATE	Oregon	31-24
SOUTHERN CAL	Notre Dame	34-7
HAWAII	Washington State	42-23

 

 

Bowl Outlook by Conference

 

Another week of games have been played, and nothing was really determined bowl-wise.  Instead of knowing where some of the teams are headed, the picture is actually more clouded than it was last week.  A couple of teams were eliminated from the bowl picture, but we’re talking about UNLV and Illinois.  As we enter the Thanksgiving holiday, we only know for sure that Navy is in the inaugural Eagle Bank Bowl.  Penn State is all but assured of a spot in the Rose Bowl, but it isn’t official yet.

 

Teams in all CAPS have already accepted invitations to that bowl.

 

ACC

Another week, another couple of frontrunners are ripe for upset losses.  Miami and Maryland controlled their own destinies last week, but both were blown out.  Now Virginia Tech and Boston College have the easiest roads to the title game.  If the Eagles beat Maryland in Chestnut Hill this week, they are headed to Atlanta.  If Virginia Tech beats Virginia, the Hokies are joining the Eagles.

 

The overall mediocrity of this league actually could help the ACC get an extra team in the bowl discussion.  If North Carolina State beats Miami or Virginia beats Virginia Tech, the league will have 10 bowl eligible teams.  Should both the Wolfpack and Cavs win, then 11 of the 12 teams will be bowl eligible.

 

1. Orange Bowl-Boston College 10-3 vs. Cincinnati

2. Chick-fil-a-North Carolina 9-3 vs. South Carolina

3. Gator-Florida State 8-4 vs. Nebraska

4. Champs Sports-Virginia Tech 8-5 vs. Northwestern

5. Music City-Georgia Tech 8-4 vs. Vanderbilt

6. Meineke Car Care-Miami (Fla) 7-5 vs. West Virginia

7. Eagle Bank-Clemson 7-5 vs. NAVY

8. Emerald-Maryland 7-5 vs. Notre Dame

9. Humanitarian-Wake Forest 7-5 vs. Boise State

10. Texas (at-large)-N.C. State 6-6 vs. Southern Miss.

 

Big East

Cincinnati is a win away from securing a BCS Bowl bid, and it looks like they would be headed to Miami.  Coach Brian Kelly will be very popular Sunday morning if the Bearcats win, and he could be the head coach at a larger school before December 15.

 

Once Cincinnati wraps up the Orange Bowl berth, the dominoes should begin to fall.  I believe the bowls will possibly sacrifice won-loss record for distance.  With the economy in shambles, fans may be reluctant to travel great distances and spend a lot of money.  Thus, I am picking South Florida to stay at home for their bowl.  I am going with West Virginia to stay close to home.  I am sending Connecticut north of the border.

 

With Notre Dame losing to Syracuse, the Irish are no longer in the Gator Bowl picture, and I don’t think the Sun Bowl will be able to select them as the Big East representative because they will finish 6-6 and six Big East teams will win seven or more games. 

 

I have Louisville out of the picture.  The Cardinals have been a major disappointment for the second consecutive year.  Coach Steve Kragthorpe’s seat is getting hot.

 

1. Orange-Cincinnati 11-2 vs. Boston College

2. Sun-Pittsburgh 8-4 vs. Arizona

3. St. Petersburg-South Florida 7-5 vs. East Carolina

4. Meineke Car Care-West Virginia 8-4 vs. Miami (Fla)

5. International-Connecticut 8-4 vs. Buffalo

6. Papa John’s-Rutgers 7-5 vs. Middle Tennessee State

 

Big Ten

Illinois was eliminated from bowl contention last week, but I now have Ohio State slated to miss out on an at-large BCS bowl bid.  So, this league will have seven teams for seven bowls.

 

Even thought Minnesota fell mightily in November, I have the Gophers ahead of Wisconsin because it appears that the Badger fans do not plan on supporting their team en masse this year.  In a poll in the Milwaukee paper, a plurality of fans voted their opinion that UW should not even go to a bowl this year.

 

1. Rose-Penn State 11-1 vs. Oregon State

2. Capital One-Ohio State 10-2 vs. Georgia

3. Outback-Michigan State 9-3 vs. L S U

4. Champs Sports-Northwestern 9-3 vs. Virginia Tech

5. Alamo-Iowa 8-4 vs. Oklahoma State

6. Insight-Minnesota 7-5 vs. Kansas

7. Motor City-Wisconsin 7-5 vs. Ball State

 

Big 12

Missouri is definitely in the Big 12 Championship Game next week.  The other side of the league is still a three-team race.  If Oklahoma wins at Oklahoma State, then the Sooners should jump ahead of Texas in the BCS standings, even if the Longhorns beat Texas A&M 56-0.  If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, then Texas Tech will back in to the title game if they beat Baylor.  I think Texas can only get into the Big 12 title game if Texas Tech loses to Baylor.  However, the Longhorns still have a chance to make it to the National Championship Game if Missouri beats Oklahoma in the conference title game and Southern Cal doesn’t jump ahead of them.

 

Colorado still has an outside chance of becoming bowl-eligible.  They have to win at Nebraska.  I don’t give the Buffs much chance of doing that, and I believe Coach Dan Hawkins is riding down a slippery slope in the Rockies.

 

The Cornhuskers may cut in line in the bowl pecking order.  The Gator Bowl will probably take them ahead of a 10-3 Missouri or 9-3 Oklahoma State team.

 

1. BCS National Championship-Oklahoma 12-1 vs. Florida

2. Fiesta-Texas 11-1 vs. Southern Cal

3. Cotton-Texas Tech 11-1 vs. Ole Miss

4. Gator-Nebraska 8-4 vs. Florida State

5. Holiday-Missouri 10-3 vs. California

6. Alamo-Oklahoma State 9-3 vs. Iowa

7. Insight-Kansas 6-6 vs. Minnesota

8. Independence-No Qualifying Team

9. Texas-No Qualifying team

 

C-USA

There is still unfinished business in this conference.  East Carolina has won the East Division, but the West is still a three-team race.  Tulsa has a tough road game at Marshall, while Houston plays across town at Rice.  If Rice and Tulsa finished ties, Tulsa wins.  If Tulsa loses to Marshall, the winner of the Rice-Houston game wins.  All three will go to bowls.

 

UTEP and Memphis must win their final games to become bowl-eligible.  Memphis has an easy game against lowly Tulane, but UTEP must play at East Carolina.  Should the Tigers lose, Coach Tommy West could be in trouble.

 

1. Liberty-Tulsa 11-2 vs. Kentucky

2. St. Petersburg-East Carolina 8-5 vs. South Florida

3. G M A C-Rice 8-4 vs. Central Michigan

4. Armed Forces-Houston 8-4 vs. Air Force

5. Texas-Southern Miss. 6-6 vs. N.C. State

6. New Orleans-Memphis 6-6 vs. Troy

 

Independent

Navy is the only team that definitely knows what bowl it will be playing in this year.  The Midshipmen have already accepted a bid to the first Eagle Bank Bowl. 

 

Notre Dame will still be invited to a bowl after USC slaughters them to drop them to 6-6.  They will be the first 6-6 team invited as an at-large team.  Whether they accept the bid is another story, but I’m selecting them here.

 

1. Emerald (at-large)-Notre Dame 6-6 vs. Maryland

2. Eagle Bank-NAVY 7-5 vs. Clemson

 

M A C

Ball State has a big home game with Western Michigan Tuesday night.  Then, they would have to beat Buffalo in the MAC Championship Game and hope Boise State, Alabama, and Southern Cal all lose just to have a minute chance at getting an at-large bid to a BCS bowl.  It looks like the Motor City Bowl is the best they can hope for.  I would love to see some arrangement made to pit a 13-0 Ball State team against a 12-0 Boise State team.  A lot of deals would have to be made.

 

Central and Western Michigan should easily receive bowl bids.  Buffalo is a virtually guaranteed a bowl as well thanks to them picking up their seventh win last week.

 

Northern Illinois will become the fifth bowl team if they defeat Navy.  Even if they lose, they could still have a shot at 6-6, since their fans travel well.

 

1. Motor City-Ball State 13-0 vs. Wisconsin

2. International-Buffalo 8-5 vs. Connecticut

3. G M A C-Central Michigan 9-3 vs. Rice

4. Hawaii (at-large)-Western Michigan 9-3 vs. Hawaii

 

Mountain West

Utah is officially a BCS bowl invitee.  It appears that they are headed to the Big Easy to play in the Sugar Bowl.

 

BYU has been to the Las Vegas Bowl the last three years, and I believe the folks in sin city will invite the Cougars a fourth consecutive time.  TCU is still a possibility, but in this time of economic turmoil, I’m guessing it will be a number’s game that comes up craps for the Frogs.

 

1. Sugar-Utah 12-0 vs. Alabama

2. Las Vegas-B Y U 10-2 vs. Oregon

3. Poinsettia-T C U 10-2 vs. Boise State

4. New Mexico-Colorado State 6-6 vs. Fresno State

5. Armed Forces-Air Force 8-4 vs. Houston

 

Pac-10

Oregon State won at Arizona, and now the Beavers need to take care of business at home against Oregon.  If they win, they head to the Rose Bowl for the first time in more than four decades!  They would get a chance to redeem themselves against Penn State.

 

Southern Cal could still climb up to second in the BCS if Oklahoma and Texas both lose again this season.

 

Arizona State could still become bowl eligible by beating both UCLA and Arizona.  It could happen, but for now I am picking Arizona to end that dream.

 

 

1. Rose-Oregon State 9-3 vs. Penn State

2. Fiesta (at-large) Southern Cal 11-1 vs. Texas

3. Holiday-California 8-4 vs. Missouri

4. Sun-Arizona 8-4 vs. Pittsburgh

5. Las Vegas-Oregon 8-4 vs. B Y U

6. Emerald-No qualifying team

6. Poinsettia-No qualifying team

7. Hawaii- No qualifying team

 

S E C

Florida continues to move farther and farther ahead of the pack in college football.  I have the Gators at least a touchdown ahead of any other team.

 

Alabama is still number one in the official polls.  What if the Crimson Tide destroys Auburn and loses to Florida in overtime on a missed two-point conversion?  Might we see the same two teams play again for the national title?  Could it happen?  I think the Gators will take ‘Bama by more than two touchdowns to make it a moot point.

 

Arkansas was eliminated from the bowl talk last week, and I expect Auburn to go away this week.  If Auburn fires Tommy Tuberville, the Tigers deserve to rot into the basement in the SEC West for years.  Tuberville is a class act, and he knows how to coach.  I don’t think there is a savior out there who can do any better.

 

Kentucky and Vanderbilt will probably both finish 6-6, and that presents a mismatch problem if Tulsa wins the C-USA title.  The Golden Hurricane would be a prohibitive favorite over both teams.  Might the Liberty Bowl decide to allow the Independence of Papa John’s Bowl to take one of these 6-6 and then go after an undefeated Ball State team as an at-large opponent?  It’s something to consider, but I believe the Wildcats will travel to Memphis.  If Rice wins the C-USA title, then Kentucky will definitely be the opponent, since Vandy has already played the Owls.

 

1. National Championship-Florida 12-1 vs. Oklahoma

2. Sugar-Alabama 12-1 vs. Utah

3. Capital One-Georgia 10-2 vs. Ohio State

4. Outback-L S U 8-4 vs. Michigan State

5. Cotton-Ole Miss 8-4 vs. Texas Tech

6. Chick-fil-a-South Carolina 7-5 vs. North Carolina

7. Music City-Vanderbilt 6-6 vs. Georgia Tech

8. Liberty-Kentucky 6-6 vs. Tulsa

9. Independence-No qualifying team

10. Papa John’s-No qualifying team

 

Sunbelt

Troy has all but wrapped up the New Orleans Bowl berth.  It looks highly likely that no other SBC team will finish 7-5, but as many as three will finish 6-6.  Because I see at least four and possibly five 6-6 teams being required to fill out the at-large spots, two at-large bids could go to this league. 

 

The Sunbelt has side bets with three other bowls, and two of them will be needing to find alternative invitees.  So, I am going with the two teams I believe will travel the best here.

 

1. New Orleans-Troy 8-4 vs. Memphis

2. Independence (at-large) Arkansas State 6-6 vs. La. Tech

3. Papa John’s (at-large) Middle Tennessee 6-6 vs. Rutgers

W A C

Boise State should take care of business against Fresno State this week and finish the regular season at 12-0.  They won’t get a sniff at an at-large BCS bowl bid.  Their only hope is if Oregon State loses to Oregon, Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State, Texas loses to Texas A&M, and Texas Tech loses to Baylor (or if Missouri wins the Big 12 title).

 

The WAC has a provisional agreement with the Poinsettia Bowl should the Pac-10 not have a team available.  They won’t this year, and that could allow Boise State to go there.  Economics may trump this theory as the Humanitarian Bowl will want the Broncos to stay home.  For now, I am selecting Boise to head south and west to play a better opponent than they would face on the blue field.

 

San Jose State looks like the odd man out this year, unless the Poinsettia Bowl would prefer them to Boise State.  Then, Nevada might be the odd man out.  If the Wolf Pack take care of business this week at Louisiana Tech, then they will take a bid away from a 6-6 team.

 

1. Poinsettia (at-large) Boise State 12-0 vs. T C U

2. Humanitarian-Nevada 6-6 vs. Wake Forest

3. New Mexico-Fresno State 7-5 vs. Colorado State

4. Hawaii-Hawaii 7-6 vs. Western Michigan

5. Independence (at-large)-La. Tech 8-4 vs. Arkansas St.

 

PiRate Ratings For College Football–Week of: November 18-23, 2008

NCAA Week 13: It’s Resolution Week, Part One

 

This week starts the beginning of the end of the regular season for college football.  Many teams will be playing their final games of the year, and many teams will be either playing themselves into a bowl or being eliminated from a bowl.   In addition, there are numerous big rivalry games.

 

The bowl situation couldn’t be more messed up today.  I believe six bowls will have to find at-large entries as the conferences which with they have agreements will not provide enough bowl eligible teams.  I believe the Independence bowl will have to find two at-large teams.

 

NCAA Top 25 For 18-Nov-2008
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Florida	139	9	1
2	Southern Cal	132	9	1
3	Texas	128	10	1
4	Texas Tech	127	10	0
5	Oklahoma	127	9	1
6	Ohio St.	125	9	2
7	Penn St.	123	10	1
8	Missouri	121	9	2
9	Alabama	120	11	0
10	Georgia	119	9	2
11	Oregon State	118	7	3
12	T C U	117	9	2
13	Boise State	116	10	0
14	Utah	116	11	0
15	Oklahoma St.	115	9	2
16	Oregon	115	8	3
17	Ball State	113	10	0
18	Ole Miss	113	6	4
19	L S U	112	7	3
20	California	112	6	4
21	Rutgers	112	5	5
22	West Virginia	112	6	3
23	Cincinnati	111	8	2
24	Iowa	111	7	4
25	Arizona	111	6	4
Note: Ratings rounded to nearest whole number
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Clemson	3-4	5-5	109	66	43
Boston College	3-3	7-3	108	65	43
Florida State	4-3	7-3	108	68	40
Maryland	4-2	7-3	105	64	41
Wake Forest	4-3	6-4	102	56	46
North Carolina State	2-4	4-6	100	67	33
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
North Carolina	3-3	7-3	109	68	41
Virginia Tech	3-3	6-4	107	66	41
Miami	4-2	7-3	105	61	44
Georgia Tech	4-3	7-3	102	62	40
Virginia	3-3	5-5	101	59	42
Duke	1-5	4-6	92	60	32

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Rutgers	4-2	5-5	112	67	45
West Virginia	3-1	6-3	112	67	45
Cincinnati	4-1	8-2	111	65	46
Pittsburgh	3-1	7-2	108	65	43
Connecticut	3-2	7-3	105	65	40
South Florida	1-4	6-4	105	68	37
Louisville	1-4	5-5	96	59	37
Syracuse	1-5	2-8	86	54	32

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Ohio State	6-1	9-2	125	70	55
Penn State	6-1	10-1	123	74	49
Iowa	4-3	7-4	111	69	42
Wisconsin	3-5	6-5	108	71	37
Illinois	3-4	5-6	107	68	39
Michigan State	6-1	9-2	106	64	42
Northwestern	4-3	8-3	101	62	39
Minnesota	3-4	7-4	99	63	36
Purdue	1-6	3-8	98	63	35
Michigan	2-5	3-8	98	58	40
Indiana	1-6	3-8	85	57	28

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Missouri	5-2	9-2	121	75	46
Nebraska	4-3	7-4	109	70	39
Kansas	3-4	6-5	106	66	40
Colorado	2-5	5-6	94	56	38
Kansas State	1-6	4-7	93	67	26
Iowa State	0-7	2-9	85	57	28
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Texas	6-1	10-1	128	82	46
Texas Tech	6-0	10-0	127	86	41
Oklahoma	5-1	9-1	127	86	41
Oklahoma State	5-2	9-2	115	69	46
Baylor	2-5	4-7	104	66	38
Texas A&M	2-5	4-7	90	56	34

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Southern Miss.	3-4	5-6	97	64	33
East Carolina	4-2	6-4	95	60	35
Central Florida	2-4	3-7	91	50	41
Memphis	3-3	5-5	90	60	30
Marshall	3-3	4-6	90	57	33
U A B	2-4	3-7	79	51	28
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Tulsa	5-1	8-2	102	71	31
Houston	5-1	6-4	100	67	33
Rice	5-1	7-3	91	62	29
U T E P	4-2	5-5	90	60	30
S M U	0-7	1-10	78	57	21
Tulane	1-5	2-8	76	52	24

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Notre Dame		6-4	103	61	42
Navy		6-4	97	60	37
Army		3-7	86	49	37

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Bowling Green	3-3	5-5	99	66	33
Buffalo	4-2	6-4	98	65	33
Temple	2-4	3-7	95	56	39
Akron	3-3	5-5	93	62	31
Kent State	2-4	3-7	90	59	31
Ohio U	1-5	2-8	87	48	39
Miami (O)	1-5	2-8	87	57	30
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Ball State	6-0	10-0	113	74	39
Western Michigan	6-1	9-2	101	64	37
Central Michigan	6-0	8-2	99	67	32
Northern Illinois	4-3	5-5	97	60	37
Toledo	1-5	2-8	87	57	30
Eastern Michigan	1-5	2-8	83	52	31

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
T C U	6-1	9-2	117	66	51
Utah	7-0	11-0	116	69	47
Brigham Young	6-1	10-1	108	68	40
Air Force	5-2	8-3	98	60	38
New Mexico	2-6	4-8	93	56	37
UNLV	2-5	5-6	91	59	32
Colorado State	3-4	5-6	91	59	32
Wyoming	1-6	4-7	87	52	35
San Diego State	0-7	1-10	70	46	24

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Southern Cal	7-1	9-1	132	73	59
Oregon State	6-1	7-3	118	75	43
Oregon	6-2	8-3	115	73	42
California	4-3	6-4	112	71	41
Arizona	4-3	6-4	111	74	37
Stanford	4-4	5-6	108	65	43
Arizona State	3-4	4-6	105	64	41
U C L A	3-4	4-6	100	57	43
Washington	0-7	0-10	85	56	29
Washington State	0-8	1-10	71	48	23

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Florida	7-1	9-1	139	86	53
Georgia	6-2	9-2	119	73	46
South Carolina	4-4	7-4	111	65	46
Vanderbilt	4-3	6-4	106	59	47
Kentucky	2-5	6-5	104	63	41
Tennessee	1-5	3-7	101	59	42
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Alabama	7-0	11-0	120	68	52
Ole Miss	3-3	6-4	113	69	44
L S U	3-3	7-3	112	71	41
Auburn	2-5	5-6	106	58	48
Mississippi State	1-5	3-7	102	57	45
Arkansas	1-5	4-6	101	67	34

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Troy	4-1	6-4	99	66	33
Florida Atlantic	3-2	5-5	95	63	32
Louisiana-Lafayette	4-1	5-5	91	66	25
Arkansas State	2-2	4-5	89	59	30
Middle Tennessee	2-3	4-6	89	56	33
Florida International	3-2	4-5	86	56	30
Louisiana-Monroe	2-4	3-8	85	55	30
* Western Kentucky	0-0	2-9	82	51	31
North Texas	0-5	1-9	70	54	16
* Western Kentucky will become eligible in 2009
Their games will not count in the SBC Standings in 2008

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Boise State	6-0	10-0	116	72	44
Nevada	4-2	6-4	101	72	29
Louisiana Tech	4-2	6-4	95	56	39
Hawaii	4-3	5-5	90	54	36
Fresno State	3-3	6-4	90	62	28
Utah State	2-5	2-9	88	55	33
San Jose State	4-3	6-5	87	54	33
New Mexico State	1-5	3-7	78	50	28
Idaho	1-6	2-9	75	58	17

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Tuesday, November 18
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Spread	Approx. Score
Northern Illinois	KENT STATE	4	28-24
Wednesday, November 19
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Spread	Approx. Score
Ball State	CENTRAL MICHIGAN	11	41-28
Thursday, November 20
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Spread	Approx. Score
Miami-Fl	GEORGIA TECH	0	21-21 to ot
Friday, November 21
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Spread	Approx. Score
BOWLING GREEN	Buffalo	4	35-31
TOLEDO	Miami-OH	3	27-24
SAN JOSE STATE	Fresno State	0	28-28 to ot
Saturday, November 15
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Spread	Approx. Score
OHIO STATE	Michigan	30	33-3
NORTH CAROLINA	North Carolina St.	12	35-23
West Virginia	LOUISVILLE	13	27-14
RUTGERS	Army	29	32-3
Clemson	VIRGINIA	5	22-17
PURDUE	Indiana	16	35-19
VANDERBILT	Tennessee	8	17-9
TEMPLE	Eastern Michigan	15	27-12
MEMPHIS	Central Florida	2	21-19
Colorado State	WYOMING	1	21-20
NOTRE DAME	Syracuse	20	30-10
MISSISSIPPI STATE	Arkansas	4	24-20
TULSA	Tulane	29	49-20
Washington	WASHINGTON STATE	11	31-20
Florida Atlantic	ARKANSAS STATE	3	31-28
PENN STATE	Michigan State	20	34-14
T C U	Air Force	22	28-6
L S U	Ole Miss	2	28-26
Boston College	WAKE FOREST	3	17-14
CALIFORNIA	Stanford	7	28-21
Illinois	NORTHWESTERN	3	27-24
Akron	OHIO U	3	21-18
RICE	Marshall	4	31-27
HOUSTON	U t e p	13	37-24
MIDDLE TENNESSEE	North Texas	22	42-20
KANSAS STATE	Iowa State	11	42-31
Louisiana Tech	NEW MEXICO STATE	11	28-17
Boise State	NEVADA	11	42-31
VIRGINIA TECH	Duke	18	35-17
UTAH	B y u	11	31-20
CINCINNATI	Pittsburgh	6	23-17
East Carolina	U A B	13	30-17
Oregon State	ARIZONA	4	35-31
Iowa	MINNESOTA	9	30-21
FLORIDA INT’L	La-Monroe	4	28-24
TROY	La-Lafayette	11	42-31
MARYLAND	Florida State	0	24-24 to ot
OKLAHOMA	Texas Tech	3	45-42
U n l v	SAN DIEGO STATE	18	32-14
HAWAII	Idaho	18	38-20
Sunday, November 23
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Spread	Approx. Score
SOUTH FLORIDA	Connecticut	3	27-24

 

This Week’s Games–Mean Ratings
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Tuesday, November 18
Favorite	Underdog	Predicted Score
Northern Illinois	KENT STATE	28-23
Wednesday, November 19
Favorite	Underdog	Predicted Score
Ball State	CENTRAL MICHIGAN	30-24
Thursday, November 20
Favorite	Underdog	Predicted Score
GEORGIA TECH	Miami-Fl	19-17
Friday, November 21
Favorite	Underdog	Predicted Score
Bowling Green	BUFFALO	28-26
TOLEDO	Miami-OH	27-21
SAN JOSE STATE	Fresno State	28-28 to ot
Saturday, November 15
Favorite	Underdog	Predicted Score
OHIO STATE	Michigan	31-7
NORTH CAROLINA	North Carolina St.	34-17
West Virginia	LOUISVILLE	27-21
RUTGERS	Army	35-16
VIRGINIA	Clemson	21-21 to ot
PURDUE	Indiana	34-24
VANDERBILT	Tennessee	20-10
TEMPLE	Eastern Michigan	28-16
MEMPHIS	Central Florida	34-28
Colorado State	WYOMING	20-17
NOTRE DAME	Syracuse	35-16
Arkansas	MISSISSIPPI STATE	20-17
TULSA	Tulane	47-21
Washington	WASHINGTON STATE	35-34
ARKANSAS STATE	Florida Atlantic	30-28
PENN STATE	Michigan State	28-13
T C U	Air Force	27-12
L S U	Ole Miss	34-28
WAKE FOREST	Boston College	24-24 to ot
CALIFORNIA	Stanford	35-24
NORTHWESTERN	Illinois	28-23
Akron	OHIO U	34-28
RICE	Marshall	42-31
HOUSTON	U t e p	45-34
MIDDLE TENNESSEE	North Texas	42-24
KANSAS STATE	Iowa State	40-28
Louisiana Tech	NEW MEXICO STATE	36-30
Boise State	NEVADA	28-17
VIRGINIA TECH	Duke	24-12
UTAH	B y u	30-21
CINCINNATI	Pittsburgh	28-24
East Carolina	U A B	34-24
Oregon State	ARIZONA	35-34
Iowa	MINNESOTA	27-24
FLORIDA INT’L	La-Monroe	34-24
TROY	La-Lafayette	31-23
MARYLAND	Florida State	24-23
OKLAHOMA	Texas Tech	41-38
U n l v	SAN DIEGO STATE	27-14
HAWAII	Idaho	42-21
Sunday, November 23
Favorite	Underdog	Predicted Score
Connecticut	SOUTH FLORIDA	20-19

 

 

Bowl Outlook by Conference

 

This week may be the most decisive week in the season in deciding which teams will go to bowls and which teams will stay home.  Every conference has at least one key game, and most have multiple key games.

 

Due to the mediocrity of the ACC and Big East this year, these two leagues may benefit from having a bunch of 6-6 & 7-5 teams.  They may take as many as three of the at-large bowl bids, especially if the Sunbelt fails to produce a second seven-win team.

 

Teams in all CAPS have already accepted invitations to that bowl.

 

ACC

Both divisions are still very much up for grabs.  In the Atlantic Division, Maryland leads today, but Boston College, Wake Forest, and Florida State can still win the division.  The Terps can eliminate the Seminoles with a win this week in College Park, but they must still play at BC.  Wake Forest hosts BC this week, and a win over the Eagles could give them a piece of the title.  However, Maryland holds a tiebreaker edge over Wake if they finish in a two-way tie. 

 

In the Coastal Division, Miami has the lead, but the Hurricanes finish with two tough road games against Georgia Tech and a much-improved North Carolina State.  Miami must finish ahead of North Carolina, for the Tar Heels hold the tie-breaker edge.  Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, and even Virginia still could win the title, but there are too many possibilities to mention.

 

Virginia plays Clemson this week, and the winner will be bowl eligible.  The loser could still get in with a win in their season finale.

 

1. Orange Bowl-Miami 10-3 vs. Cincinnati

2. Chick-fil-a-North Carolina 9-3 vs. Kentucky

3. Gator-Virginia Tech 8-4 vs. Missouri

4. Champs Sports-Maryland 8-5 vs. Minnesota

5. Music City-Boston College 8-4 vs. Ole Miss

6. Meineke Car Care-Wake Forest 7-5 vs. Connecticut

7. Eagle Bank-Georgia Tech 7-5 vs. NAVY

8. Emerald-Florida State 7-5 vs. Oregon State

9. Humanitarian-Clemson 6-6 vs. Boise State

10. Texas (at-large)-Virginia 6-6 vs. Memphis

 

Big East

Cincinnati held onto the lead by winning at Louisville.  The Bearcats face Pittsburgh this week, and the winner will be in first place.  West Virginia plays at Louisville, and the Mountaineers can move into a first place tie if they win and Pitt beats Cincinnati.  Rutgers and Connecticut still have outside chances to win the league.

 

Louisville and Rutgers still need one win to gain bowl eligibility.  In the other part of the equation, Notre Dame can steal either a Gator or Sun Bowl berth that would go to this conference should the Irish get to seven wins.  They are 6-4 with a home game against lowly Syracuse this week.  The Orangemen just fired Coach Greg Robinson, so they may be motivated to play a big game.  Notre Dame’s other game is against Southern Cal.  I think the Irish will finish 7-5, and the Sun Bowl will take them.

 

1. Orange-Cincinnati 10-3 vs. Miami-Fl

2. Sun-Notre Dame 7-5 vs. Arizona

3. St. Petersburg-Pittsburgh 8-4 vs. East Carolina

4. Meineke Car Care-Connecticut 8-4 vs. Wake Forest

5. International-West Virginia 7-5 vs. Central Michigan

6. Papa John’s-South Florida 7-5 vs. Buffalo

7. Motor City (at-large)-Rutgers 7-5 vs. Ball State

8. Independence (at-large)-Louisville 6-6 vs. Bowling Green

 

Big Ten

Penn State is in the Rose Bowl if they defeat Michigan State.  If the Spartans win, then Ohio State is in with a win over Michigan.  If both Michigan teams win, then Michigan State is in the Rose Bowl.  I’m going with the Nittany Lions to win and close the other loopholes.

 

Ohio State will more than likely secure an at-large BCS bowl with a win over Michigan.  At 10-2, they would trump a second undefeated team from a non-BCS conference.  Money is all that matters in these bowls, and the Fiesta or Sugar Bowl would take the Buckeyes before considering a 12-0 Boise State or a 13-0 Ball State.

 

Illinois is still one win shy of gaining a bowl bid, and they must beat Northwestern this week.  If the Wildcats win, as I believe will happen, then the Motor City Bowl will need to search for an at-large team. 

 

I believe an excellent opportunity will present itself should Illinois lose and Ball State and Boise State both run the table.  The Motor City Bowl could strike a deal with the Humanitarian Bowl so that Boise State could be freed up to play Ball State in a battle of the unbeatens.

 

1. Rose-Penn State 11-1 vs. Southern Cal

2. Fiesta-Ohio State 10-2 vs. Oklahoma

3. Capital One-Michigan State 9-3 vs. Georgia

4. Outback-Northwestern 9-3 vs. South Carolina

5. Champs Sports-Minnesota 8-4 vs. Maryland

6. Alamo-Iowa 7-5 vs. Nebraska

7. Insight-Wisconsin 7-5 vs. Kansas

8. Motor City-No Team Available

 

Big 12

This is where all the big action takes place.  Texas Tech ventures to Norman to take on Oklahoma this week, and I’m going with OU to win.  If the Sooners then win at Oklahoma State the following week, then the Big 12 South will end in a three-way tie between Tech, OU, and Texas (assuming Texas beats A&M).  The tiebreaker for the Big 12 uses highest BCS ranking, and Texas is currently ahead of Oklahoma.  Would OU jump UT if they beat Tech and Oklahoma State?  I think it’s possible, but not probable.  So, in a three-way tie, I’m guessing Texas would be the lucky team.

 

In the North, Missouri has already secured a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game.  The Tigers have already played Texas, and the Longhorns whipped them.  A rematch would be much closer in my opinion, and the Tigers would have close to a 50-50 chance of winning this time around.  Should the eventual South Division champion lose to Missouri, then it will give Southern Cal a chance to move up to the BCS Championship game.  A USC-Florida game would be the best possible title fight.

 

With Kansas State losing last week, this league is now guaranteed to come up short in its bowl obligations.  In fact, it will be two teams short.  That’s too bad for the Independence Bowl, because I believe it will have to search for two at-large teams. 

 

1. BCS National Championship-Texas 12-1 vs. Florida

2. Fiesta-Oklahoma 11-1 vs. Ohio State

3. Cotton-Texas Tech 11-1 vs. LSU

4. Gator-Missouri 10-3 vs. Virginia Tech

5. Holiday-Oklahoma State 9-3 vs. California

6. Alamo-Nebraska 7-5 vs. Iowa

7. Insight-Kansas 6-6 vs. Wisconsin

8. Independence-No Qualifying Team

9. Texas-No Qualifying team

 

C-USA

As I expected last week, Houston beat Tulsa to forge a three-way tie at the top of the West Division.  Rice is the third of the trio, and the Owls still host Houston.  Tulsa still has a tough road game at Marshall.  So, any one of these three could end up in the C-USA Championship Game.

 

In the East, East Carolina is going to limp home with the title, but the Pirates are playing a good 10 to 13 points weaker in November than they did in September.  The only way Memphis or Marshall could supplant ECU is if the Pirates lose at UAB and at home to Marshall in the final game.  Look for ECU to beat UAB and clinch the division this week.

 

The good news for this conference is there will be enough bowl eligible teams to fill the six bowl allotments, and if UTEP can win one more game, there could be an extra bowl eligible team.  The Miners have a lot of digging to do, as they close at Houston and at ECU.  Southern Mississippi will become bowl eligible when they beat SMU in two weeks. 

 

1. Liberty-Houston 9-4 vs. Vanderbilt

2. St. Petersburg-East Carolina 8-5 vs. Pittsburgh

3. G M A C-Rice 8-4 vs. Western Michigan

4. Armed Forces-Tulsa 10-2 vs. U N L V

5. Texas-Memphis 7-5 vs. Virginia

6. New Orleans-Southern Miss. 6-6 vs. Troy

 

Independent

Navy is the only team that definitely knows what bowl it will be playing in this year.  The Midshipmen have already accepted a bid to the first Eagle Bank Bowl.  If Georgia Tech is the ACC representative, it will pit Paul Johnson against his former team in a triple option challenge.

 

Notre Dame will earn a bowl bid with a win over Syracuse this week.  The Gator Bowl could take them in lieu of a really good Big 12 team, but the Sun Bowl is a more likely destination.

 

1. Sun-Notre Dame 7-5 vs. Arizona

2. Eagle Bank-NAVY 7-5 vs. Georgia Tech

 

M A C

Other than the Oklahoma-Texas Tech game this week, the next most important match could be the one in Mt. Pleasant, Michigan, Wednesday night.  Central Michigan hosts Ball State, and this game should be must-watch TV.  If Ball State wins this road game, then the Cardinals will be in the cat-bird seat at undefeated stadium.  They still would have to beat a tough Western Michigan team in Muncie plus the Eastern champion in the MAC title game, but CMU is the real tough assignment.  Central Michigan and Western Michigan have earned bowl bids, and they will go somewhere.

 

In the East, Bowling Green hosts Buffalo Friday night, and the winner of that game is the division champ.  The loser should still finish with seven wins, and that will be enough to get them an at-large invitation to another bowl.

 

Northern Illinois may have played themselves out of bowl competition.  The Huskies are 5-5 and must beat both Kent State and Navy to get to a bowl.  I think they will fall one game short.

 

1. Motor City-Ball State 13-0 vs. Rutgers

2. International-Central Michigan 9-3 vs. West Virginia

3. G M A C-Western Michigan 9-3 vs. Rice

4. Papa John’s (at-large)-Buffalo 7-5 vs. South Florida

5. Independence (at-large)-Bowling Green 7-6 vs. Louisville

 

Mountain West

If Utah beats BYU this week, then the Utes are going to the Sugar Bowl.  The Sugar Bowl would get the last pick of available BCS teams, and Utah will qualify with a win over the Cougars.  Should BYU upset their in-state rival, then Utah will drop out of the BCS picture and open up a spot for Boise State or possibly Ball State should the Broncos also lose.

 

UNLV and Colorado State both need one more win to gain bowl eligibility.  If Utah wins, then there will be room for both the Rebels and the Rams in the bowl picture.  UNLV must defeat San Diego State, and this appears to be almost a certainty.  CSU plays at Wyoming in a big rivalry game, and their task is much more difficult.

 

1. Sugar-Utah 12-0 vs. Alabama

2. Las Vegas-TCU 10-2 vs. Oregon

3. Poinsettia-BYU 10-2 vs. San Jose State

4. New Mexico-Air Force 8-4 vs. Louisiana Tech

5. Armed Forces-UNLV 6-6 vs. Tulsa

6. Hawaii (at-large)-Colorado State 6-6 vs. Hawaii

 

Pac-10

All eyes are in Tucson this week.  Should Oregon State win on the road at Arizona, the Beavers are a home win over Oregon away from being the Pac-10 Champions and Rose Bowl representative.  If Arizona wins or Oregon upsets the Beavers in the season-ender, then Southern Cal will win the Pac-10.

 

Stanford, UCLA and Arizona State are still mathematically alive in the bowl picture.  UCLA would have to win at Arizona State and then upset USC.  It won’t happen.  Arizona State would have to beat UCLA and Arizona; it could happen, but chances are they won’t win both games.  Stanford must defeat Cal this week, but the Bears have about a 60-65% chance of winning.  Thus, the Pac-10 could miss out on their allotments by two teams.

 

 

1. Rose-Southern Cal 11-1 vs. Penn State

2. Holiday-California 8-4 vs. Oklahoma State

3. Sun-Arizona 8-4 vs. Notre Dame

4. Las Vegas-Oregon 8-4 vs. TCU

5. Emerald-Oregon State 8-4 vs. Florida State

6. Poinsettia-No qualifying team

7. Hawaii- No qualifying team

 

S E C

This conference has the definite top team in the land, and it isn’t number one Alabama.  Florida may be as dominant today as Nebraska was in 1995 and 1997.  The Gators could score 100 points this week against Citadel if Urban Meyer allowed them to do so.  They will pummel Florida State the following week, and then they should handle Alabama by more than 10 points in the SEC Championship Game.  If they lose another game this year it will be a bigger story than the Presidential election!

 

Alabama will clinch a BCS bowl game with a win over hapless Auburn next week.  That game will also eliminate the Tigers and could conceivably cost Tommy Turbeville his job (which would be ridiculous).

 

Vanderbilt clinched a bowl with their win over Kentucky in Lexington Saturday.  The Commodores now have two very winnable games remaining against Tennessee and Wake Forest.  Should they finish 8-4, they will deserve the Outback Bowl bid, but I’m guessing they would get snubbed if South Carolina beats Clemson in their final game.  However, a Vandy-Northwestern game would stir a lot of interest with the similarities between the two academic institutes of much higher learning.

 

Ole Miss also became bowl eligible Saturday, and the Rebels could move up to the Cotton Bowl if they could beat a battered LSU team in the Tiger’s Den this week.

 

Arkansas still has a remote shot at getting to a bowl.  The Razorbacks would have to win at Mississippi State and against LSU the following week.  For now, I’m calling for them to lose one of those games, so the SEC will fall two teams short in its obligations.

 

1. National Championship-Florida 12-1 vs. Texas

2. Sugar-Alabama 12-1 vs. Utah

3. Capital One-Georgia 10-2 vs. Michigan State

4. Outback-South Carolina 7-5 vs. Northwestern

5. Cotton-L S U 9-3 vs. Texas Tech

6. Chick-fil-a-Kentucky 7-5 vs. North Carolina

7. Music City-Ole Miss 7-5 vs. Miami

8. Liberty-Vanderbilt 8-4 vs. Houston

9. Independence-No qualifying team

10. Papa John’s-No qualifying team

 

Sunbelt

The New Orleans Bowl should be decided this week when Troy hosts Louisiana-Lafayette.  If ULL wins and then loses at home to Middle Tennessee in two weeks, Florida Atlantic could claim the title with wins at Arkansas State and against Florida International.  Both ASU and FIU could get into the championship picture if Troy, ULL, and FAU all lose.  For now, let’s just go with Troy to beat ULL and end all the commotion.

 

If Troy wins this week, there is a good chance that the other teams will beat each other up and leave three teams at 6-6.  If a second team does get to seven wins, then they will be assured of an at-large bid to either the Papa John’s or Independence Bowl.

 

1. New Orleans-Troy 8-4 vs. Southern Miss.

 

W A C

I have a sneaky suspicion that Boise State could find itself in a heap of trouble this week.  The Broncos travel to Reno to take on Nevada.  The Wolf Pack took Boise to four overtimes last year at the blue field before losing 69-67.  I think Nevada could be waiting to ambush the undefeated Broncos.  Boise will be lucky to escape with a win of any type.

 

Louisiana Tech has emerged as the second best team in the WAC.  Second year coach Derek Dooley is the son of former Georgia great Vince Dooley, and he could be on the verge of seeing his name on the rolodexes of several athletics directors at BCS schools.  If the Bulldogs win at New Mexico State this week, they will lock up a bowl bid.

 

Fresno State and San Jose State are both on the skids.  The two play Friday night at Spartan Stadium, and the winner will be virtually assured of grabbing a bowl.  The loser won’t be eliminated, but their road will be quite rough.

 

Hawaii is 5-5 with three games to go.  They should beat Idaho this week, and Washington State the following week to earn a bid to the Hawaii Bowl.

 

1. Humanitarian-Boise State 12-0 vs. Clemson

(Boise State could swap with Rutgers and face a 13-0 Ball State team if a deal could be made).

2. New Mexico-Louisiana Tech 8-4 vs. Air Force

3. Hawaii-Hawaii 7-6 vs. Colorado State

4. Poinsettia (at-large)-San Jose State 7-5 vs. B Y U

 

PiRate Ratings For College Football: Week Of November 11-15, 2008

NCAA Week 12: BCS Could Be On Verge Of Getting Quite Muddled

 

Bye Bye Penn State.  Alabama just barely survived in the Bayou.  Florida and Southern Cal showed they are the two best teams in the nation, but it’s going to take a few more losses at the top before that match-up has any chance of ever occurring.

 

Last week’s games really threw a monkey wrench into the lower bowls.  There is a good chance now that at least six bowls will have to look for at-large teams because the conferences that have agreements with these bowls will not have enough bowl eligible teams.  Read below in my bowl section to see the ensuing problems.

 

The PiRate Top 25 is different from the polls.  I do not rank the teams based on what they have done to date.  These teams are rated on how I think they will perform in the future (predictive ratings).

 

NCAA Top 25 For 11-Nov-2008
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Florida	135	8	1
2	Southern Cal	132	8	1
3	Texas Tech	127	10	0
4	Oklahoma	127	9	1
5	Texas	126	9	1
6	Ohio St.	126	8	2
7	Penn St.	124	9	1
8	Missouri	121	8	2
9	Alabama	120	10	0
10	Georgia	120	8	2
11	Oklahoma St.	117	8	2
12	T C U	117	9	2
13	Boise State	116	9	0
14	Oregon State	116	6	3
15	South Carolina	115	7	3
16	Utah	114	10	0
17	Ball State	114	9	0
18	Oregon	114	7	3
19	California	114	6	3
20	L S U	113	6	3
21	Iowa	112	6	4
22	Arizona	112	6	3
23	West Virginia	112	6	3
24	Cincinnati	111	7	2
25	Florida State	111	7	2
Note: Ratings rounded to nearest whole number
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Florida State	4-2	7-2	111	70	41
Clemson	2-4	4-5	107	65	42
Boston College	2-3	6-3	105	64	41
Maryland	3-2	6-3	104	64	40
Wake Forest	4-2	6-3	103	56	47
North Carolina State	1-4	3-6	98	66	32
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
North Carolina	3-2	7-2	110	69	41
Virginia Tech	3-2	6-3	108	67	41
Miami	3-2	6-3	104	61	43
Georgia Tech	4-3	7-3	102	62	40
Virginia	3-3	5-5	101	59	42
Duke	1-4	4-5	94	61	33

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
West Virginia	3-1	6-3	112	67	45
Cincinnati	3-1	7-2	111	65	46
South Florida	1-3	6-3	109	69	40
Rutgers	3-2	4-5	108	65	43
Pittsburgh	3-1	7-2	108	65	43
Connecticut	2-2	6-3	103	64	39
Louisville	1-3	5-4	96	59	37
Syracuse	1-4	2-7	88	55	33

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Ohio State	5-1	8-2	126	70	56
Penn State	5-1	9-1	124	75	49
Iowa	3-3	6-4	112	70	42
Wisconsin	2-5	5-5	110	71	39
Michigan State	6-1	9-2	106	64	42
Illinois	3-3	5-5	106	67	39
Michigan	2-4	3-7	100	60	40
Northwestern	3-3	7-3	99	62	37
Minnesota	3-3	7-3	97	61	36
Purdue	1-5	3-7	97	63	34
Indiana	1-5	3-7	85	57	28

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Missouri	4-2	8-2	121	75	46
Kansas	3-3	6-4	108	67	41
Nebraska	3-3	6-4	106	68	38
Kansas State	1-5	4-6	97	68	29
Colorado	2-4	5-5	93	56	37
Iowa State	0-6	2-8	85	57	28
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Texas Tech	6-0	10-0	127	86	41
Oklahoma	5-1	9-1	127	86	41
Texas	5-1	9-1	126	81	45
Oklahoma State	4-2	8-2	117	71	46
Baylor	1-5	3-7	102	65	37
Texas A&M	2-4	4-6	92	57	35

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
East Carolina	4-1	6-3	97	62	35
Southern Miss.	2-4	4-6	95	64	31
Marshall	3-2	4-5	94	59	35
Memphis	3-3	5-5	90	60	30
Central Florida	1-4	2-7	87	48	39
U A B	1-4	2-7	79	51	28
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Tulsa	5-0	8-1	106	72	34
Houston	4-1	5-4	95	63	32
Rice	5-1	7-3	91	62	29
U T E P	3-2	4-5	87	59	28
S M U	0-6	1-9	81	59	22
Tulane	1-4	2-7	79	53	26

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Notre Dame		5-4	103	61	42
Navy		6-3	97	60	37
Army		3-7	86	49	37

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Bowling Green	3-3	5-5	99	66	33
Buffalo	3-2	5-4	98	65	33
Temple	2-3	3-6	96	56	40
Akron	3-2	5-4	93	62	31
Kent State	1-4	2-7	89	58	31
Ohio U	1-5	2-8	87	48	39
Miami (O)	1-4	2-7	86	57	29
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Ball State	5-0	9-0	114	74	40
Western Michigan	5-1	8-2	102	64	38
Central Michigan	5-0	7-2	98	66	32
Northern Illinois	4-2	5-4	98	60	38
Toledo	1-4	2-7	86	56	30
Eastern Michigan	1-5	2-8	83	52	31

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
T C U	6-1	9-2	117	66	51
Utah	6-0	10-0	114	68	46
Brigham Young	5-1	9-1	106	66	40
Air Force	5-1	8-2	99	60	39
New Mexico	2-5	4-7	96	59	37
UNLV	1-5	4-6	90	59	31
Colorado State	2-4	4-6	89	58	31
Wyoming	1-5	4-6	88	53	35
San Diego State	0-6	1-9	72	47	25

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Southern Cal	6-1	8-1	132	73	59
Oregon State	5-1	6-3	116	74	42
Oregon	5-2	7-3	114	71	43
California	4-2	6-3	114	72	42
Arizona	4-2	6-3	112	73	39
Stanford	4-3	5-5	108	65	43
Arizona State	2-4	3-6	105	64	41
U C L A	2-4	3-6	98	56	42
Washington	0-6	0-9	87	57	30
Washington State	0-7	1-9	71	48	23

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Florida	6-1	8-1	135	84	51
Georgia	5-2	8-2	120	74	46
South Carolina	4-3	7-3	115	67	48
Kentucky	2-4	6-4	106	63	43
Vanderbilt	3-3	5-4	104	58	46
Tennessee	1-5	3-7	101	59	42
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Alabama	6-0	10-0	120	68	52
L S U	3-3	6-3	113	71	42
Ole Miss	3-3	5-4	110	67	43
Auburn	2-4	5-5	105	58	47
Mississippi State	1-4	3-6	102	57	45
Arkansas	1-5	4-6	101	67	34

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Troy	4-1	6-3	97	64	33
Louisiana-Lafayette	4-0	5-4	93	67	26
Florida Atlantic	2-2	4-5	93	62	31
Arkansas State	2-2	4-5	89	59	30
Middle Tennessee	2-3	3-6	88	56	32
Louisiana-Monroe	2-4	3-7	88	57	31
Florida International	3-2	4-5	86	56	30
* Western Kentucky	0-0	2-8	83	52	31
North Texas	0-5	1-9	70	54	16
* Western Kentucky will become eligible in 2009
Their games will not count in the SBC Standings in 2008

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Boise State	5-0	9-0	116	72	44
Fresno State	2-3	5-4	92	64	28
Nevada	3-2	5-4	99	71	28
San Jose State	4-2	6-4	89	54	35
Louisiana Tech	3-2	5-4	96	56	40
Hawaii	4-3	5-5	90	54	36
Utah State	2-4	2-8	87	54	33
New Mexico State	1-4	3-6	77	50	27
Idaho	1-5	2-8	75	58	17

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Tuesday, November 11
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Spread	Approx. Score
Ball State	MIAMI (O)	25	45-20
Wednesday, November 12
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Spread	Approx. Score
Temple	KENT STATE	4	24-20
NORTHERN ILLINOIS	Central Michigan	3	30-27
Thursday, November 13
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Spread	Approx. Score
Buffalo	AKRON	2	33-31
Va. Tech	MIAMI-FL	1	22-21
UNLV	Wyoming	5	26-21
Friday, November 14
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Spread	Approx. Score
Cincinnati	LOUISVILLE	12	26-14
Saturday, November 15
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Spread	Approx. Score
PENN STATE	Indiana	42	49-7
Ohio State	ILLINOIS	17	30-13
SOUTH FLORIDA	Rutgers	4	27-23
MICHIGAN	Northwestern	4	24-20
CLEMSON	Duke	16	33-17
Notre Dame	NAVY           (Baltimore)	4	24-20
IOWA	Purdue	18	38-20
Texas	KANSAS	15	40-25
Georgia	AUBURN	12	24-12
Middle Tennessee	WESTERN KENTUCKY	2	23-21
New Mexico	COLORADO STATE	4	27-23
OLE MISS	Louisiana-Monroe	25	38-13
WESTERN MICHIGAN	Toledo	19	35-16
LOUISIANA TECH	Utah State	12	24-12
SOUTHERN MISS.	East Carolina	1	31-30
TULANE	U a b	3	27-24
FLORIDA	South Carolina	23	37-14
North Carolina	MARYLAND	3	27-24
B y u	AIR FORCE	4	27-23
Wake Forest	N.C. STATE	2	22-20
OREGON STATE	California	5	33-28
WISCONSIN	Minnesota	16	37-21
OREGON	Arizona	5	34-29
Nebraska	KANSAS STATE	6	37-31
FLORIDA ATLANTIC	Louisiana-Lafayette	3	38-35
BAYLOR	Texas A&M	13	31-18
NEVADA	San Jose State	13	37-24
MARSHALL	Central Florida	10	20-10
Boise State	IDAHO	38	52-14
FRESNO STATE	New Mexico State	18	38-20
ARIZONA STATE	Washington State	37	44-7
Missouri	IOWA STATE	33	45-12
Southern Cal	STANFORD	21	28-7
Connecticut	SYRACUSE	12	28-16
ALABAMA	Mississippi State	22	35-13
Utah	SAN DIEGO STATE	39	42-3
Oklahoma State	COLORADO	21	34-13
FLORIDA STATE	Boston College	9	30-21
L S U	Troy	19	38-19
Tulsa	HOUSTON	8	38-30
KENTUCKY	Vanderbilt	5	17-12
U T E P	S m u	9	37-28
U c l a	WASHINGTON	8	25-17

 

This Week’s Games–Mean Ratings
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Tuesday, November 11
Favorite	Underdog	Predicted Score
Ball State	MIAMI (O)	37-14
Wednesday, November 12
Favorite	Underdog	Predicted Score
Temple	KENT STATE	28-23
NORTHERN ILLINOIS	Central Michigan	24-23
Thursday, November 13
Favorite	Underdog	Predicted Score
AKRON	Buffalo	28-27
MIAMI-FL	Virginia Tech	24-20
UNLV	Wyoming	28-20
Friday, November 14
Favorite	Underdog	Predicted Score
Cincinnati	LOUISVILLE	24-17
Saturday, November 15
Favorite	Underdog	Predicted Score
PENN STATE	Indiana	41-7
Ohio State	ILLINOIS	23-14
SOUTH FLORIDA	Rutgers	27-19
Northwestern	MICHIGAN	31-26
CLEMSON	Duke	28-23
NAVY	Notre Dame	27-26
IOWA	Purdue	28-13
Texas	KANSAS	40-27
Georgia	AUBURN	20-10
Middle Tennessee	WESTERN KENTUCKY	16-14
New Mexico	COLORADO STATE	24-23
OLE MISS	Louisiana-Monroe	38-14
WESTERN MICHIGAN	Toledo	35-19
LOUISIANA TECH	Utah State	31-21
East Carolina	SOUTHERN MISS.	24-24 to ot
TULANE	U a b	30-24
FLORIDA	South Carolina	41-21
North Carolina	MARYLAND	21-16
B y u	AIR FORCE	27-27 to ot
Wake Forest	N.C. STATE	24-16
OREGON STATE	California	31-27
WISCONSIN	Minnesota	38-33
OREGON	Arizona	30-26
KANSAS STATE	Nebraska	37-31
FLORIDA ATLANTIC	Louisiana-Lafayette	24-23
BAYLOR	Texas A&M	34-28
NEVADA	San Jose State	31-23
MARSHALL	Central Florida	21-13
Boise State	IDAHO	44-10
FRESNO STATE	New Mexico State	40-27
ARIZONA STATE	Washington State	45-21
Missouri	IOWA STATE	40-14
Southern Cal	STANFORD	23-3
Connecticut	SYRACUSE	28-16
ALABAMA	Mississippi State	35-7
Utah	SAN DIEGO STATE	35-3
Oklahoma State	COLORADO	38-23
FLORIDA STATE	Boston College	28-20
L S U	Troy	31-17
Tulsa	HOUSTON	42-35
KENTUCKY	Vanderbilt	14-10
U T E P	S m u	40-27
U c l a	WASHINGTON	26-21

 

 

Bowl Outlook by Conference

 

As I mentioned above, this is becoming a mess.  Let’s take a look at the possible problems facing the bowls that must rely on conferences to produce seven to nine bowl eligible teams.  A half-dozen bowls and maybe more could be forced to find at-large teams.

 

Teams in all CAPS have already accepted invitations to that bowl.

 

ACC

North Carolina State, Virginia, Clemson, and Duke are on the verge of elimination, and I believe three of the four will fail to get to six wins.  The ACC has nine tie-ins, and it looks like they will just barely have nine bowl-eligible schools.  The Clemson-Virginia game at Charlottesville on November 22 will be a bowl elimination game.

 

1. Orange Bowl-North Carolina 11-2 vs. Cincinnati

2. Chick-fil-a-Virginia Tech 8-4 vs. Kentucky

3. Gator-Florida State 8-4 vs. Missouri

4. Champs Sports-Wake Forest 9-4 vs. Northwestern

5. Music City-Miami 8-4 vs. Ole Miss

6. Meineke Car Care-Georgia Tech 8-4 vs. West Virginia

7. Eagle Bank-Maryland 7-5 vs. NAVY

8. Emerald-Boston College 7-5 vs. Arizona

9. Humanitarian-Virginia 6-6 vs. San Jose State

 

Big East

Another week, another leader in the pack for the Big East-Cincinnati is the new team on top.  The Bearcats won at West Virginia, and wins over Louisville this Friday and Pittsburgh the following week will sew up the Big East title.  They could lose either or both games, but for now, I have them penciled in as the champion.

 

With Notre Dame’s consecutive losses and almost assured to lose to Southern Cal, I have removed the Irish from the Big East equation.  However, they will certainly grab an at-large bid from the first bowl that loses a tie-in.

 

I have Rutgers as the sole 6-6 team getting an at-large bowl bid.  Should someone like Temple or Akron finish 7-5, they will take the at-large bid away.

 

1. Orange-Cincinnati 10-3 vs. North Carolina

2. Sun-Pittsburgh 9-3 vs. Oregon State

3. St. Petersburg-South Florida 8-4 vs. East Carolina

4. Meineke Car Care-West Virginia 7-5 vs. Georgia Tech

5. International-Connecticut 7-5 vs. Central Michigan

6. Papa John’s-Louisville 6-6 vs. Florida Atlantic

7. Hawaii (at-large)-Rutgers 6-6

 

Big Ten

Penn State’s loss has virtually relegated the Nittany Lions to the Rose Bowl.  Should Michigan State beat them, then Ohio State can back into Pasadena for a possible rematch with Southern Cal.  Illinois lost to Western Michigan, and now the Illini must beat either Ohio State or Northwestern to gain eligibility.  For now, I have them out of the bowl picture, and that means the Big 10 will likely fall one team short of its obligations.  That means the Motor City Bowl will need to search for a substitute.  Notre Dame would fit in perfectly here, but if Ball State runs the table and finishes 13-0, it could present a special situation for the Motor City Bowl to make a deal with the WAC and take a 12-0 Boise State team for a dream match.

 

Minnesota’s loss to Michigan opens the door for another team to sneak into a New Year’s Bowl, but for now I have the Gophers still there.

 

1. Rose-Penn State 11-1 vs. Southern Cal

2. Fiesta-Ohio State 10-2 vs. Texas

3. Capital One-Michigan State 9-3 vs. Georgia

4. Outback-Minnesota 8-4 vs. South Carolina

5. Champs Sports-Northwestern 8-4 vs. Wake Forest

6. Alamo-Iowa 7-5 vs. Nebraska

7. Insight-Wisconsin 7-5 vs. Kansas

8. Motor City-No Team Available

 

Big 12

Texas Tech looked like a championship team against Oklahoma State, but I think they will find it difficult to win at Oklahoma.  If the Sooners beat the Red Raiders, they will then have to beat Oklahoma State in Stillwater in order to finish in a three-way tie in the Big 12 South.  If they win both games, they should finish with the highest BCS rating among the trio and acquire the bid to the Big 12 Championship Game.  I have them doing just that.  Now, here is where I think the evils of money will win out over what is just.  At 11-1, Texas Tech would deserve an at-large BCS Bowl bid over 11-1 Texas, but I am sure greed would win out.  Texas would get that bid.

 

Colorado and Kansas State still have much work to do to gain bowl eligibility.  I think the Buffaloes will miss out, and it could mean big trouble for Coach Dan Hawkins in Boulder.  Kansas State has a decent chance to upset Nebraska and knock off Iowa State to sneak in at 6-6.  If they lose to the Cornhuskers, then the Big 12 will fall two teams short in their allotments.

 

1. BCS National Championship-Oklahoma 12-1 vs. Florida

2. Fiesta-Texas 11-1 vs. Ohio State

3. Cotton-Texas Tech 11-1 vs. LSU

4. Gator-Missouri 10-3 vs. Florida State

5. Holiday-Oklahoma State 9-3 vs. California

6. Alamo-Nebraska 7-5 vs. Iowa

7. Insight-Kansas 6-6 vs. Wisconsin

8. Independence-Kansas State 6-6 vs. Louisiana Tech

9. Texas-No Qualifying team

 

C-USA

This is a big week in the C-USA, as both divisions have key showdowns that will go a long way in determining their representatives in the conference title game.  Houston hosts Tulsa, and should the Cougars win, the West Division will be tied three ways between these two and Rice.  Houston concludes the season at Rice.  Tulsa holds the tiebreaker over Rice, and Houston would hold the tiebreaker over Tulsa if they beat the Golden Hurricane.

 

In the East, East Carolina visits Southern Mississippi.  If the Pirates win, they are in the title game.  Marshall still has an outside chance to win this division, but I believe the Thundering Herd will lose at least two more games and fail to gain bowl eligibility. 

 

After a start that looked like it would cost Tommy West his job, his Memphis team is the hottest squad in the East Division.  I look for the Tigers to win out and earn their fifth bowl game in six years.

 

Southern Mississippi must defeat ECU and SMU to get to six wins; for now, I have them doing that, but it is quite a tenuous supposition.  Chances are about 60% that the New Orleans Bowl will have to find an at-large team.

 

1. Liberty-Tulsa 11-2 vs. Vanderbilt

2. St. Petersburg-East Carolina 8-5 vs. South Florida

3. G M A C-Rice 9-3 vs. Western Michigan

4. Armed Forces-Houston 7-5 vs. U N L V

5. Texas-Memphis 7-5 vs. Buffalo

6. New Orleans-Southern Miss. 6-6 vs. Troy

 

Independent

The one sure thing is that Navy is headed to the first Eagle Bank Bowl in Washington, D.C.  Notre Dame should be bowl eligible, and at 7-5 they will definitely be invited to fill an at-large spot.  They could still steal the Sun Bowl bid from the Big East, but I believe there will be more deserving teams to go to El Paso.

 

1. Sun-Notre Dame 7-5 vs. Arizona

2. Eagle Bank-NAVY 7-5 vs. Wake Forest

 

M A C

Here is where the bowl situation becomes a bloody mess.  Let’s start with the possibility that Ball State could finish 13-0 and in the top 15 and not qualify for an at-large BCS Bowl.  At 13-0, it would be terrible for the Cardinals to face a 6-6 Big 10 team or some at-large team that barely qualified at 7-5.  I believe an excellent situation would be available if both Boise State and Ball State finished undefeated.  A deal could be struck for the two teams to play, leaving a western bowl with two more evenly-matched teams.  Should Utah lose to BYU, then Ball State would still need a Boise State loss to back into a possible Sugar Bowl bid.

 

Since it is silly to try to predict a back room deal, I am leaving the bowl tie-ins alone for now, but with the above caveat in place.

 

As for the rest of the league, this is getting very interesting.  The MAC finishes the season with November games on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays.  Last week, the nation saw Ball State destroy a good Northern Illinois team.  Tonight (Tuesday), the Cardinals should blow Miami of Ohio off the field.  Three more key conference games tomorrow and Thursday could play important roles in determining bowl bids.  Akron and Buffalo hook up in the Rubber Bowl, where the winner takes a commanding lead in the East.  Temple goes to Kent State, where an Owl win puts them in position to challenge for a piece of the division title.  Northern Illinois and Central Michigan play Wednesday in Dekalb, and if the Chippewas win on the road, they may be a major obstacle for Ball State the following Wednesday.

 

1. Motor City-Ball State 13-0 vs. Notre Dame (Boise State?)

2. International-Central Michigan 9-3 vs. Connecticut

3. G M A C-Western Michigan 9-3 vs. Rice

4. Poinsettia (at-large)-Northern Illinois 7-5 vs. BYU

5. Texas (at-large)-Buffalo 7-6 vs. Memphis

 

Mountain West

Utah’s come-from-behind win over TCU has them firmly holding onto the at-large BCS Bowl bid.  A win over a weakening BYU team will clinch it.  That means, the MWC will get an extra bowl bid, and there will be an available team.  That team will be the one that finishes 6-6 from among UNLV, Wyoming, and Colorado State.  Wyoming plays the other two to finish out the season, while UNLV also plays San Diego State and Colorado State also plays New Mexico.  The Rebels have the easiest path to 6-6.

 

See the WAC for an explanation of the New Mexico.

 

1. Sugar-Utah 12-0 vs. Alabama

2. Las Vegas-TCU 10-2 vs. Oregon

3. Poinsettia-BYU 9-3 vs. Northern Illinois

4. New Mexico-Air Force 9-3 vs. Boise State (Notre Dame?)

5. Armed Forces-UNLV 6-6 vs. Houston

 

Pac-10

Oregon State still controls its own destiny in the Pac-10.  If the Beavers beat California, Arizona, and Oregon, they are in the Rose Bowl no matter what USC does in their games.  An Oregon State-Penn State rematch would not be all that exciting.  I think OSU will lose one of those final three, and USC will win out.

 

Stanford must upset either USC or Cal to gain bowl eligibility, and I don’t believe they can do that.  UCLA will most certainly not win out, so the Bruins will not get to six wins.  Arizona State has a remote chance of winning out to finish 6-6, but for now I have them finishing 5-7.  That means the Pac-10 will fall two teams shy of their bowl allotments.

 

 

1. Rose-Southern Cal 11-1 vs. Penn State

2. Holiday-California 8-4 vs. Oklahoma State

3. Sun-Oregon State 8-4 vs. Pittsburgh

4. Las Vegas-Oregon 8-4 vs. TCU

5. Emerald-Arizona 8-4 vs. Boston College

6. Poinsettia-No qualifying team

7. Hawaii- No qualifying team

 

S E C

Has there ever been a more dominant one-loss team in college football than the 2008 Florida Gators?  I can only compare them to a few past teams, mostly from six decades past.  In 1943, a 9-1 Notre Dame team easily destroyed eight of their opponents before surviving against one military all-star team and losing late to another.  Of course, the Irish were so dominant then with help of WWII.  I liken this Florida team to the 1968 UCLA Bruin basketball team.  UCLA lost by two points on the road to the best team since 1956 not coached by John Wooden.  They lost with Lew Alcindor (Kareem Abdul Jabbar) still hampered by an eye injury.  When the Bruins faced Houston in the Final Four, they led by over 40 points with eight minutes remaining before Coach Wooden emptied the bench.  Now Florida did not lose on the road at Alabama, Texas Tech, or USC.  Tim Tebow was not recovering from an injury at the time the Gators lost at home to Ole Miss.  However, this is SEC football.  Any SEC team that is headed to a bowl is by definition one of the best in the nation.  We all know the Gators would beat Ole Miss by five touchdowns in a rematch.  I think Florida today can beat any college team by two touchdowns or more, with the exception of Southern Cal, and they would beat them by 7-10 points. 

 

Alabama is still unbeaten and ranked number one.  The Tide should reach the SEC Championship Game at 12-0, but I’m willing to wager that an 11-1 Florida team will be favored by the wise guys in Las Vegas, who know who is the best team in the nation.  Penn State’s losing last week crushed the hopes of the Rose Bowl to get the Tide out to Pasadena.  If Southern Cal could move into the top spot, then a 12-1 Bama team could still make it west for the first time since January of 1946.  Fat Chance!

 

The SEC is going to fall at least two teams short in meeting their bowl obligations.  Tennessee was eliminated last week.  Auburn would have to beat either Georgia or Alabama, and that won’t happen.  Mississippi State would have to beat Alabama, Arkansas, and Ole Miss, and there’s no chance.  Arkansas might beat Mississippi State, but they won’t defeat LSU and will finish under .500.  Vanderbilt still needs one win and has Kentucky, Tennessee, and Wake Forest left.  For now, I am calling the Tennessee game a win, but I am not confident about that.  They could easily finish 5-7 after starting 5-0 and really put daggers in the hearts of their fans.

 

1. National Championship-Florida 12-1 vs. Oklahoma

2. Sugar-Alabama 12-1 vs. Utah

3. Capital One-Georgia 10-2 vs. Michigan State

4. Outback-South Carolina 8-4 vs. Minnesota

5. Cotton-L S U 9-3 vs. Texas Tech

6. Chick-fil-a-Kentucky 7-5 vs. Virginia Tech

7. Music City-Ole Miss 7-5 vs. Miami

8. Liberty-Vanderbilt 6-6 vs. Tulsa

9. Independence-No qualifying team

10. Papa John’s-No qualifying team

 

Sunbelt

Troy is still in command here, but the Trojans have a tough game remaining against Louisiana-Lafayette.  Troy would have gotten an extra week to prepare for this game, but their game with LSU had to be rescheduled after the September hurricane.  The ULL game is in Troy, so I still have the Trojans penciled in darkly as probable SBC champs.

 

With all the at-large possibilities, chances are quite strong that a second team will get a bowl bid.  There is even a slim chance that a third team could earn one too.

 

1. New Orleans-Troy 8-4 vs. Southern Miss.

2. Papa John’s (at-large)-Florida Atlantic 7-5 vs. Louisville

 

W A C

Boise State should finish 12-0, and they should finish in the top 10.  Unless Utah loses, the Broncos will be left out in the cold when the BCS doles out its big bowl bids.  Personally, I would love to see a Utah-Boise State Fiesta Bowl or even Cotton Bowl, but that isn’t going to happen.  What could happen is a deal for Boise State to be released from their WAC bowl alliance to face Ball State if both are unbeaten. 

 

San Jose State is the only other WAC team that has secured bowl eligibility, and there are four other teams vying for the remaining two bowls.  I believe three will get to seven wins, and one of the trio will get an at-large invitation.

 

1. New Mexico-Boise State 12-0 vs. Air Force

(Boise State could swap with Notre Dame and face a 13-0 Ball State team.  I am sure the New Mexico Bowl would gladly take Notre Dame.)

2. Humanitarian-San Jose State 7-5 vs. Virginia

3. Hawaii-Hawaii 7-6 vs. Rutgers

4. Independence (at-large)-Louisiana Tech 8-4 vs. Kansas St.

 

PiRate Ratings For College Football–Week of: November 4-8, 2008

NCAA Week 11: Expect At Least One Major Upset

 

Congratulations go to the Red Raiders from Lubbock.  Now, Texas Tech must face Oklahoma State and Oklahoma their next two games.  There just isn’t enough defense in this league when compared to the outstanding offenses, and it doesn’t look likely that TTU will win both of those games and also beat Missouri in a Big 12 Championship Game.

 

Alabama is the new BCS #1 team, and I just cannot see the Tide beating both LSU and Florida. 

 

Penn State still has two trap games left on their schedule.  Their game at Iowa is the tougher of the two, but Michigan State cannot be overlooked.  I think the Nittany Lions have the best chance of the undefeated BCS trio of finishing 12-0.

 

As for the race for the possible at-large BCS bid for a conference champion, something tells me that Utah will fall to either TCU or BYU if not both teams.  Tulsa was eliminated with their loss to Arkansas.  Ball State has an almost impossible task of having to defeat the other three excellent teams within their division.  I don’t think they can go 3-0 against Northern Illinois, Central Michigan, and Western Michigan.  Boise State is now my overwhelming favorite to run the table and snatch the BCS bowl bid.

 

As for my Top 25, I have two one-loss teams well ahead of the undefeated teams.  If there was a playoff, I believe the boys in Vegas would agree with me that Southern Cal and Florida would be the teams meeting in the championship.

 

The PiRate Top 25 is different from the polls.  I do not rank the teams based on what they have done to date.  These teams are rated on how I think they will perform in the future (predictive ratings).

 

NCAA Top 25 For 4-Nov-2008
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Florida	135	7	1
2	Southern Cal	133	7	1
3	Penn St.	127	9	0
4	Texas	127	8	1
5	Oklahoma	126	8	1
6	Ohio St.	123	7	2
7	Texas Tech	122	9	0
8	Alabama	121	9	0
9	Oklahoma St.	121	8	1
10	Missouri	121	7	2
11	Georgia	121	7	2
12	T C U	118	9	1
13	Boise State	116	8	0
14	South Carolina	115	6	3
15	West Virginia	114	6	2
16	Oregon	114	6	3
17	Utah	113	9	0
18	California	113	6	2
19	Oregon State	113	5	3
20	Arizona	113	5	3
21	L S U	112	6	2
22	Ball State	111	8	0
23	Kansas	110	6	3
24	Ole Miss	110	5	4
25	Iowa	110	5	4
Note: Ratings rounded to nearest whole number
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Florida State	3-2	6-2	109	69	40
Clemson	2-3	4-4	109	66	43
Maryland	3-1	6-2	105	65	40
Boston College	2-3	5-3	102	64	38
Wake Forest	3-2	5-3	102	55	47
North Carolina State	0-4	2-6	94	64	30
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
North Carolina	2-2	6-2	108	69	39
Virginia Tech	2-2	5-3	107	67	40
Miami	3-2	6-3	104	61	43
Georgia Tech	4-2	7-2	104	64	40
Virginia	3-2	5-4	102	59	43
Duke	1-3	4-4	98	63	35

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
West Virginia	3-0	6-2	114	69	45
Cincinnati	2-1	6-2	109	65	44
South Florida	1-3	6-3	109	69	40
Rutgers	2-2	3-5	108	65	43
Pittsburgh	2-1	6-2	106	64	42
Connecticut	2-2	6-3	103	64	29
Louisville	1-2	5-3	99	61	38
Syracuse	1-3	2-6	88	55	33

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Penn State	5-0	9-0	127	76	51
Ohio State	4-1	7-2	123	68	55
Iowa	2-3	5-4	110	69	41
Illinois	3-3	5-4	108	68	40
Wisconsin	1-5	4-5	107	69	38
Michigan State	5-1	8-2	106	64	42
Northwestern	3-2	7-2	102	63	39
Minnesota	3-2	7-2	102	64	38
Purdue	1-4	3-6	97	63	34
Michigan	1-4	2-7	95	58	37
Indiana	1-4	3-6	88	58	30

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Missouri	3-2	7-2	121	75	46
Kansas	3-2	6-3	110	67	43
Nebraska	2-3	5-4	103	65	38
Kansas State	1-4	4-5	97	68	29
Colorado	1-4	4-5	94	56	38
Iowa State	0-5	2-7	84	56	28
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Texas	4-1	8-1	127	81	46
Oklahoma	4-1	8-1	126	85	41
Texas Tech	5-0	9-0	122	83	39
Oklahoma State	4-1	8-1	121	72	49
Baylor	1-4	3-6	101	64	37
Texas A&M	2-3	4-5	93	57	36

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
East Carolina	3-1	5-3	98	63	35
Marshall	3-1	4-4	93	59	34
Southern Miss.	1-4	3-6	93	64	29
Memphis	2-3	4-5	90	60	30
Central Florida	1-3	2-6	89	50	39
U A B	1-4	2-7	79	51	28
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Tulsa	5-0	8-1	106	72	34
Houston	3-1	4-4	92	62	30
Rice	5-1	6-3	91	62	29
U T E P	3-2	3-5	83	56	27
Tulane	1-3	2-6	82	55	27
S M U	0-5	1-8	81	59	22

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Notre Dame		5-3	106	64	42
Navy		6-3	97	60	37
Army		3-6	86	49	37

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Buffalo	2-2	4-4	97	64	33
Bowling Green	2-3	4-5	96	65	31
Temple	2-3	3-6	96	56	40
Akron	2-2	4-4	91	60	31
Ohio U	1-4	2-7	90	51	39
Kent State	1-4	2-7	89	58	31
Miami (O)	1-3	2-6	87	57	30
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Ball State	4-0	8-0	111	72	39
Northern Illinois	4-1	5-3	101	61	40
Western Michigan	5-1	7-2	100	64	36
Central Michigan	5-0	7-2	98	66	32
Toledo	1-3	2-6	88	56	32
Eastern Michigan	1-5	2-8	83	52	31

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
T C U	6-0	9-1	118	67	51
Utah	5-0	9-0	113	68	45
Brigham Young	4-1	8-1	106	66	40
New Mexico	2-4	4-6	98	60	38
Air Force	4-1	7-2	97	58	39
Colorado State	2-3	4-5	91	59	32
UNLV	0-5	3-6	88	58	30
Wyoming	1-5	3-6	83	53	30
San Diego State	0-5	1-8	72	47	25

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Southern Cal	5-1	7-1	133	74	59
Oregon	4-2	6-3	114	71	43
California	4-1	6-2	113	72	41
Oregon State	4-1	5-3	113	74	39
Arizona	3-2	5-3	113	73	40
Stanford	4-2	5-4	108	65	43
Arizona State	1-4	2-6	105	64	41
U C L A	2-3	3-5	101	59	42
Washington	0-5	0-8	87	57	30
Washington State	0-6	1-8	70	47	23

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Florida	5-1	7-1	135	84	51
Georgia	4-2	7-2	121	74	47
South Carolina	3-3	6-3	115	67	48
Tennessee	1-5	3-6	107	64	43
Kentucky	2-3	6-3	105	62	43
Vanderbilt	3-2	5-3	104	58	46
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Alabama	5-0	9-0	121	69	52
L S U	3-2	7-2	112	71	41
Ole Miss	3-3	5-4	110	67	43
Auburn	2-4	4-5	105	58	47
Mississippi State	1-4	3-6	102	57	45
Arkansas	1-4	4-5	101	67	34

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Troy	4-1	6-3	98	65	33
Louisiana-Lafayette	4-0	5-3	97	68	29
Florida Atlantic	1-2	3-5	90	60	30
Arkansas State	2-1	4-4	89	59	30
Middle Tennessee	1-3	2-6	88	56	32
Louisiana-Monroe	2-3	3-6	88	57	31
Florida International	2-2	3-5	86	56	30
* Western Kentucky	0-0	2-7	82	52	30
North Texas	0-4	1-8	72	55	17
* Western Kentucky will become eligible in 2009
Their games will not count in the SBC Standings in 2008

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Boise State	4-0	8-0	116	72	44
Fresno State	2-2	5-3	96	66	30
Nevada	2-2	4-4	96	69	27
San Jose State	4-1	6-3	93	57	36
Louisiana Tech	2-2	4-4	91	55	36
Hawaii	3-3	4-5	89	53	36
Utah State	2-3	2-7	87	54	33
New Mexico State	1-3	3-5	78	50	28
Idaho	1-5	2-8	75	58	17

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Tuesday, November 4
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Spread	Approx. Score
BUFFALO	Miami (O)	13	34-21
Wednesday, November 5
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Spread	Approx. Score
BALL STATE	Northern Illinois	13	34-21
AKRON	Toledo	6	30-24
Thursday, November 6
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Spread	Approx. Score
VIRGINIA TECH	Maryland	5	28-23
T c u	UTAH	2	21-19
Friday, November 7
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Spread	Approx. Score
FRESNO STATE	Nevada	3	41-38
Saturday, November 8
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Spread	Approx. Score
Ohio State	NORTHWESTERN	18	28-10
Georgia	KENTUCKY	13	28-15
MICHIGAN STATE	Purdue	12	31-19
NORTH CAROLINA	Georgia Tech	7	31-24
FLORIDA STATE	Clemson	3	27-24
Wisconsin	INDIANA	16	37-21
MINNESOTA	Michigan	10	30-20
WAKE FOREST	Virginia	3	13-10
RUTGERS	Syracuse	23	35-12
PITTSBURGH	Louisville	10	27-17
Illinois	Western Michigan  (in Detroit)	7	31-24
TEXAS TECH	Oklahoma St.	4	35-31
TEXAS	Baylor	29	45-16
Florida	VANDERBILT	28	38-10
Oklahoma	TEXAS A&M	30	48-18
MISSOURI	Kansas State	27	48-21
Kansas	NEBRASKA	4	28-24
SOUTH CAROLINA	Arkansas	17	34-17
TENNESSEE	Wyoming	27	34-7
BOISE STATE	Utah State	32	42-10
B Y U	San Diego St.	37	44-7
COLORADO	Iowa State	13	30-17
Bowling Green	OHIO U	3	24-21
RICE	Army	8	28-20
Memphis	S M U	6	35-29
Alabama	L S U	6	27-21
Penn State	IOWA	14	34-20
DUKE	North Carolina St.	7	34-27
EAST CAROLINA	Marshall	8	29-21
Southern Miss.	CENTRAL FLORIDA	1	24-23
MIDDLE TENNESSEE	La.-Monroe	3	27-24
OREGON	Stanford	9	30-21
TROY	Western Kentucky	19	36-17
Hawaii	NEW MEXICO ST.	8	24-16
FLORIDA ATLANTIC	North Texas	21	45-24
Arizona	WASHINGTON STATE	40	47-7
UL-LAFAYETTE	U t e p	17	41-24
FLA.-INT’L	Arkansas State	0	28-28 to ot
SOUTHERN CAL	California	23	35-12
SAN JOSE STATE	Louisiana Tech	5	21-16
Notre Dame	BOSTON COLLEGE	1	24-23
HOUSTON	Tulane	13	37-24
New Mexico	U N L V	7	28-21

 

This Week’s Games–Mean Ratings
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Tuesday, November 4
Favorite	Underdog	Predicted Score
BUFFALO	Miami (O)	30-14
Wednesday, November 5
Favorite	Underdog	Predicted Score
BALL STATE	Northern Illinois	28-13
AKRON	Toledo	26-17
Thursday, November 6
Favorite	Underdog	Predicted Score
VIRGINIA TECH	Maryland	20-14
UTAH	T c u	17-16
Friday, November 7
Favorite	Underdog	Predicted Score
FRESNO STATE	Nevada	28-23
Saturday, November 8
Favorite	Underdog	Predicted Score
Ohio State	NORTHWESTERN	20-14
Georgia	KENTUCKY	21-13
MICHIGAN STATE	Purdue	31-17
NORTH CAROLINA	Georgia Tech	21-16
FLORIDA STATE	Clemson	21-12
Wisconsin	INDIANA	31-23
MINNESOTA	Michigan	37-21
WAKE FOREST	Virginia	21-17
RUTGERS	Syracuse	37-21
PITTSBURGH	Louisville	34-24
Illinois	Western Michigan  (in Detroit)	26-24
TEXAS TECH	Oklahoma St.	38-31
TEXAS	Baylor	44-14
Florida	VANDERBILT	31-13
Oklahoma	TEXAS A&M	41-17
MISSOURI	Kansas State	45-24
NEBRASKA	Kansas	35-33
SOUTH CAROLINA	Arkansas	28-17
TENNESSEE	Wyoming	27-10
BOISE STATE	Utah State	38-6
B Y U	San Diego St.	44-10
COLORADO	Iowa State	40-27
Bowling Green	OHIO U	27-24
RICE	Army	28-14
Memphis	S M U	34-28
Alabama	L S U	24-17
Penn State	IOWA	20-7
DUKE	North Carolina St.	35-20
EAST CAROLINA	Marshall	31-21
CENTRAL FLORIDA	Southern Miss.	24-24 to ot
MIDDLE TENNESSEE	La.-Monroe	27-21
OREGON	Stanford	34-24
TROY	Western Kentucky	33-14
Hawaii	NEW MEXICO ST.	27-21
FLORIDA ATLANTIC	North Texas	44-27
Arizona	WASHINGTON STATE	40-14
UL-LAFAYETTE	U t e p	33-24
FLA.-INT’L	Arkansas State	28-27
SOUTHERN CAL	California	34-17
SAN JOSE STATE	Louisiana Tech	31-22
BOSTON COLLEGE	Notre Dame	26-24
HOUSTON	Tulane	38-24
New Mexico	U N L V	24-22

 

 

Bowl Outlook by Conference

 

What a change one week makes!  Texas falls to at-large BCS Bowl status.  Texas Tech moves up for the time being, while Penn State is punished for not playing.  Joe Paterno’s teams have been left out of the national championship race four times in the past when they finished undefeated (1968, 1969, 1973, and 1994).  I don’t think it can happen this year.  If they are 12-0 on November 23, they will be in the BCS Championship game; I just don’t see both Texas Tech and Alabama finishing the regular season at 13-0, and I don’t really think either of them will do so.  Let’s look at each conference and see how the bowls are shaping up.  We officially saw the first bowl invitation extended this week.  From here on, if you see a team listed in all caps, they have committed to the bowl in question.

 

ACC

This is a muddied race.  There is a good chance that 5-3 could earn a tie in both divisions.  There just isn’t a high-quality team in this league, and there isn’t really a terrible team either.  I have seven of the ACC teams finishing 5-3 as of today, and both divisions will need a tiebreaker to determine their representatives in the ACC Championship Game.

 

1. Orange Bowl-Virginia Tech 9-4 vs. West Virginia

2. Chick-fil-a-North Carolina 9-3 vs. Kentucky

3. Gator-Florida State 8-4 vs. Missouri

4. Champs Sports-Maryland 8-5 vs. Northwestern

5. Music City-Miami 8-4 vs. Tennessee

6. Meineke Car Care-Georgia Tech 8-4 vs. Cincinnati

7. Eagle Bank-Wake Forest 8-4 vs. NAVY

8. Emerald-Boston College 7-5 vs. Oregon State

9. Humanitarian-Clemson 6-6 vs. Fresno State

 

Virginia 6-6 but no invitation

 

Big East

West Virginia has taken a commanding lead after beating Connecticut last week.  I still think they will lose at least one conference game, but even at 6-1, they should win the Big East title by two games.  Pittsburgh and Cincinnati can still win the crown, but the odds favor the Mountaineers.

 

1. Orange-West Virginia vs. Virginia Tech

2. Sun-Notre Dame (see independents)

3. St. Petersburg-Pittsburgh 8-4 vs. Tulsa

4. Meineke Car Care-Cincinnati 9-4 vs. Georgia Tech

5. International-Connecticut 8-4 vs. Ball State

6. Papa John’s-South Florida 8-4 vs. Buffalo

7. Texas *-Louisville 7-5 vs. Houston

*=The Big East is the official backup conference for the Texas Bowl.

 

Rutgers 6-6 but no invitation

 

Big Ten

Penn State is not a lock to finish 12-0, but I have them doing so for this exercise.  Should they lose, then they will end up in Pasadena rather than Miami.  There is still a chance that the Big 10 could come up one team short, but for now I have Wisconsin, Iowa, and Illinois finishing strong enough to satisfy the allotments.

 

1. BCS National Championship-Penn State 12-0 vs. Florida

2. Fiesta-Ohio State 10-2 vs. Texas Tech

3. Capital One-Michigan State 9-3 vs. Georgia

4. Outback-Minnesota 9-3 vs. South Carolina

5. Champs Sports-Northwestern 8-4 vs. Maryland

6. Alamo-Illinois 7-5 vs. Nebraska

7. Insight-Wisconsin 6-6 vs. Kansas

8. Motor City-Iowa 6-6 vs. Central Michigan

 

Big 12

Here is where having five really good teams hurts a conference.  It is highly likely that Texas Tech will lose to either Oklahoma State or Oklahoma and possibly both.  Texas should finish 11-1; if Texas Tech finished 11-1, losing to Oklahoma, and Oklahoma also finishes 11-1, then the highest BCS-rated team would win the tiebreaker.  Texas would probably be that team, and they could easily lose to Missouri in a rematch.  Then, Oklahoma could have a shot at the BCS National Championship game if they clobbered both Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.  I think Texas Tech might beat Oklahoma State and lose to Oklahoma, while Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State; that would give Tech the South title.

 

The one sure thing from this league is that they will have a difficult time fulfilling their allotments.  The Texas Bowl has a contingency to take a Big East team should the final Big 12 slot go untaken.

 

1. Fiesta-Texas Tech 12-1 vs. Ohio State

2. Sugar-Texas 11-1 vs. Boise State

3. Cotton-Oklahoma 10-2 vs. LSU

4. Gator-Missouri 10-3 vs. Florida State

5. Holiday-Oklahoma State 10-2 vs. California

6. Alamo-Nebraska 7-5 vs. Illinois

7. Insight-Kansas 6-6 vs. Wisconsin

8. Independence-Kansas State 6-6 vs. UL-Lafayette

9. Texas-No Qualifying team

 

C-USA

Tulsa lost out on its chance to garner a BCS at-large bowl bid, and they may lose again in the regular season.  The Golden Hurricane still have two tough road games in conference play and could even drop to second place if they lose both games.  Rice has an easier finish and could sneak into the title game should Tulsa fall apart.  I think Tulsa coach Todd Graham is going to be in the mix for several job openings, and it could hurt his team’s concentration.

 

East Carolina has the talent and the emotions to win the conference championship.  Memphis has an easy finishing schedule and should join Houston and Marshall as bowl eligible teams.

 

1. Liberty-East Carolina 10-3 vs. Ole Miss

2. St. Petersburg-Tulsa 10-3 vs. Pittsburgh

3. G M A C-Rice 9-3 vs. Northern Illinois

4. Armed Forces-Memphis 7-5 vs. Air Force

5. Texas-Houston 6-6 vs. Louisville

6. New Orleans-Marshall 6-6 vs. Troy

 

Independent

Notre Dame’s setback against Pittsburgh shouldn’t hamper their chances of stealing one of the Big East Bowl slots they are entitled to stealing.  I still think they will get a bid at 7-5.  Navy has officially accepted a bid to the inaugural Eagle Bank Bowl game.

 

1. Sun-Notre Dame 7-5 vs. Arizona

2. Eagle Bank-NAVY 7-5 vs. Wake Forest

 

M A C

Ball State is in the top 25 and is still in the running for an at-large BCS bowl bid.  The road to 13-0 looks too hard for the Cardinals, as Northern Illinois, Central Michigan, and Western Michigan are all good enough to beat half the Big 10 teams on a neutral field.  Ball State could finish 11-1 and miss out on the MAC title game. 

 

The other side of this league is a real mess.  There’s a strong chance that three teams will finish 5-3, and the tiebreaker will have to go past the first test, since they will have all been 1-1 in head-to-head competition.

 

There is a good chance that as many as three extra teams could finish with the most important seven wins.  As the at-large non-BCS bowl rules state, all seven win teams must be invited to fulfill spots left vacant by the allotted conferences before any 6-6 team can be invited.  So, a 7-6 Buffalo team would take precedence over a 6-6 team from a BCS conference.

 

Because a seven-win MAC team will probably be all that’s available to the Poinsettia Bowl, and it looks like a 10-2 or even 11-1 team will be the opponent, there might be some bowl deals to make better match-ups.  I will leave this possibility alone until the rumors begin to make their rounds.

 

1. Motor City-Central Michigan 10-3 vs. Iowa

2. International-Ball State 11-1 vs. Connecticut

3. G M A C-Northern Illinois 8-4 vs. Rice

4. Hawaii (at-large)-Western Michigan 8-4 vs. Louisiana Tech

5. Poinsettia (at-large)-Akron 7-5 vs. Utah

6. Papa John’s (at-large)-Buffalo 7-6 vs. South Florida

 

Mountain West

I just cannot see Utah winning out this year.  I think TCU will beat them Thursday night, and if not, BYU has a 50-50 shot at doing so in the season-ender.  So, I am taking away a BCS bid from this league for the time being.  I usually don’t like to pick a team to repeat in a bowl, but I’ll make an exception for a service academy playing in a bowl honoring the services.

 

1. Las Vegas-TCU 11-1 vs. Oregon

2. Poinsettia-Utah 11-1 vs. Akron

3. New Mexico-BYU 9-3 vs. San Jose St.

4. Armed Forces-Air Force 9-3 vs. Memphis

 

Pac-10

Oregon State must lose a game before Southern Cal can win the automatic BCS Bowl bid.  That possibility looks quite strong, as the Beavers must finish out the season with games against Cal, Arizona (on the road), and Oregon.  Should OSU run the table, then they will be headed to the Rose Bowl, and USC will steal an at-large bowl bid from someone else.  For now, I am going with the thought that the Trojans will win the Pac-10 at 8-1.

 

With Stanford, Arizona State, and UCLA needing some big upsets to finish 6-6, it’s highly unlikely this league will satisfy its allotted bids.  I think they will fall two teams short.

 

1. Rose-Southern Cal 11-1 vs. Alabama

2. Holiday-California 8-4 vs. Oklahoma State

3. Sun-Arizona 8-4 vs. Notre Dame

4. Las Vegas-Oregon 8-4 vs. TCU

5. Emerald-Oregon State 8-4 vs. Boston College

6. Poinsettia-No qualifying team

7. Hawaii- No qualifying team

 

S E C

Florida has shown to the nation that they are the best team, and I don’t think there is an opponent out there, other than USC, that could beat them today.  I think they will win out, including a nice victory over Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.  If Alabama beats LSU and loses to Florida to finish 12-1, the Tide will more than likely head to the Rose Bowl for the first time in 60-plus years.  The folks in Pasadena would love to land the Crimson Tide, and they would have first dibs on them if Penn State finished number one in the BCS ratings.

 

With Phil Fulmer resigning, I think his Tennessee squad will rally and win out for him to get bowl eligible.  Kentucky became bowl eligible Saturday by winning at Mississippi State.  Arkansas is within striking distance of getting to six wins, but they would have to win two of their final three games (at South Carolina, at Mississippi State, vs. LSU).  I think they will come up short.  Vanderbilt is 5-3, but I think they too will come up short, losing to Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Wake Forest.  So, the SEC will not meets its requirement, and two bowls will need to find substitutes.

 

1. National Championship-Florida 12-1 vs. Penn State

2. Rose-Alabama 12-1 vs. Southern Cal

3. Capital One-Georgia 10-2 vs. Michigan State

4. Outback-South Carolina 8-4 vs. Minnesota

5. Cotton-L S U 9-3 vs. Oklahoma

6. Chick-fil-a-Kentucky 7-5 vs. North Carolina

7. Music City-Tennessee 6-6 vs. Miami

8. Liberty-Ole Miss 7-5 vs. East Carolina

9. Independence-No qualifying team

10. Papa John’s-No qualifying team

 

Sunbelt

Troy’s loss has opened the door for Louisiana-Lafayette, but the Ragin’ Cajuns still must play the Trojans in Troy.

 

1. New Orleans-Troy 9-3 vs. Marshall

2. Independence (at-large)-UL-Lafayette 7-5 vs. Kansas State

 

One other team should finish 6-6 but won’t get an invitation

 

W A C

Boise State should finish 12-0, and I believe they will secure a BCS at-large bowl bid. 

 

Nevada, Hawaii, and New Mexico State have only slim chances of getting to six wins (seven in Hawaii’s case), while Louisiana Tech may be the surprise fourth bowl team.

 

1. Sugar-Boise State 12-0 vs. Texas

2. Humanitarian-Fresno State 7-5 vs. Clemson

3. New Mexico-San Jose State 8-4 vs. BYU

4. Hawaii-Louisiana Tech 7-5 vs. Western Michigan