February 7, 2021
Margins
Home | Visitor | PiRate | Mean | Bias |
Tampa Bay | Kansas City | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
Total
Home | Visitor | Total |
Tampa Bay | Kansas City | 58 |
Home | Visitor | PiRate | Mean | Bias |
Tampa Bay | Kansas City | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
Home | Visitor | Total |
Tampa Bay | Kansas City | 58 |
Welcome back gridiron fans. The PiRates are back at sea working hard on getting their treasure for the 2017-18 season.
There will be a few tweaks to the formulas this season as we refine our ratings to make them as accurate as possible, and we are excited about it.
Tweak #1: Our first tweak involves increasing the alteration of each college football teams’ rate of adjustment as it applies to depth concerns. If a team is stacked two-deep with talent, they should be able to endure a long, hard season. But, if the team is only good in their starting lineup, and they lack the depth, they will weaken as the season goes on. Consider two teams, State and Tech. State and Tech are about equal in talent in their starting lineups, and on August 25, they are exactly the same in power rating. For the sake of argument, let’s say they both look like 9-3 teams in a power 5 conference and have identical ratings of 118.0.
In the month of September, State and Tech both go 4-0 over similar competition, and their statistics show that they are still basically the same in talent and results. Both teams ratings go up, but State’s go up a tad more than Tech’s, due to the depth issue. Through four games, it won’t be all that much, and now on the First Monday in October, State is now 122.5, and Tech is 121.8.
In October, State and Tech both go 3-1 to sit at 7-1 with four games to go. Both teams have lost some key players by now, but State has plugged in able second-teamers to fill the spots, while Tech has been forced to go with talent not up to Power 5 conference standards. State’s wins have been a little easier, and their loss was much closer than Tech’s wins and loss. Now, State has a rating of 123.1, while Tech has fallen a bit to 119.5.
In November, State finishes strong, going 3-1 to finish the regular season at 10-2. Tech falters going 1-3 to finish 8-4.
We see this every year. We believe we can factor in this depth issue into our ratings before the season begins, and we can adjust the rate of adjustment during the season as a team sees key players leave the lineup. It also works in reverse; a team may have a blessing of several new underclassmen beginning to contribute.
Look at Georgia in 1980. Hershel Walker was a true freshman. In the second half of the season opener against Tennessee, Coach Vince Dooley inserted Walker into the game with the Bulldogs trailing by double-digits, and Walker turned the game around in his first 10 carries. Georgia won the game, and Walker led the Bulldogs to an undefeated National Championship. Had this new twist of our ratings been in effect then, The Bulldogs might have improved by an unprecedented 10 points between game one and game two. As it was then, it took several weeks until Georgia’s rating really reflected their power, all because of one freshman.
This can just as easily happen to an average team that loses a couple of key players. There have been instances when a team has lost a dozen key players by the end of October. If it is Alabama, the Crimson Tide might be five points weaker than they would have been with the dozen players still healthy. But, if it is Iowa State, the Cyclones might be 15 points weaker with the loss of these dozen players.
Going back to the unexpected bonanza, what if a team has five or six redshirt freshmen that have displaced upperclassmen in the starting lineup? Obviously, this team must now be better talent-wise if starters have been replaced (unless the coach has thrown in the towel on the season and is looking to the future). What started as a so-so season may continue as a better season because the surprising advancement of the freshmen has made this team a touchdown better than it was earlier in the season.
The PiRate Ratings will adjust for this during the season by increasing or decreasing the adjustment rate of the teams after each Saturday. Because the PiRate Ratings always show a total average of 100.0, that means teams might lose ground in the ratings after a good game, because other teams now earn more bonus for their play on the field. It will be a work in progress, but in the end, we believe it will lead to more accurate ratings.
Tweak #2: Our basketball ratings have always been Four Factors-based. We have three different algorithms using the Four Factors Data. Football also has its factors. In fact, in football, there are five factors. They are, in order of importance: Explosiveness, Efficiency, Field Position, Finishing Drives, and Turnovers. You can find excellent content online about these factors–some explain in detail like a thesis, while others give you a quick outline.
For our purposes, we have changed how we use the box scores of the games in our updating formula. We will look more at Explosiveness and Efficiency when we update the teams’ ratings every week. Additionally, we will keep an unpublished running score on how consistent teams are in being able to move the ball and stop the movement of the other team. Which leads us to our big breakthrough for 2017-18.
Big Breakthrough
Have you ever noticed that over the course of an era, a team may celebrate a national championship or conference championship when they appear to not be as good as prior teams or soon see future teams that look better but do not win the championship? You have probably seen that a really good team goes 10-2 or 11-1 and demolishes most of their opponents but suffered a terrible upset. Then, that team runs the table but wins most of their games by nice amounts but by no means blowouts.
Think of a team that wins 55-17 and 38-10 or something similar for most of the season and then falls 31-27 to a mediocre team. This team leads the nation in total offense or scoring defense, but they always fall a game short of the accomplishment. But, then along comes a season where this school wins 31-20, 27-14 or something similar and runs the table. They finish well down in total offense and near the top in scoring defense, but they go undefeated.
We have seen this happen multiple times in the last 30 years. The dominating team is not as consistent as the team that went undefeated, and in three out of 10 games, the less consistent power may be two touchdowns better than the undefeated champion. However, 70% of the time, the undefeated champion will be better than the dominating team.
The PiRates have tried to assign value or lack of value to the consistency of a team, but this is something that takes a good sampling of games. This adjustment will be used in November after all teams have played 2/3 of their regular season schedule. By then, we should have a grasp of what teams are staying consistent, and what teams are all over the map. We will not adjust their ratings, because you never know if your inconsistent team will deviate 14 points above their rating or 14 points below. What we will do is search for consistency when we select our Money Line plays. We might be crazy, because we are coming off two consecutive profitable Money Line seasons (just for fun and not real wagering), so we might be cutting off our noses to spite our faces.
Enjoy your summer. Football season will be here before you know it. The PiRates are actually ahead of schedule this year with their college football updates, and we should have enough time to expand our preseason coverage this year.
Ahoy Mates!
It’s August again. Can you believe it? It seemed like yesterday that Alabama was being crowned national champs and New Orleans was winning the Super Bowl.
The PiRates are ready to begin their preseason coverage. Beginning tomorrow, we will preview one FBS conference per day for 12 days. Following that, we will preview each of the NFL divisional races over the next eight days.
Coming August 30, we will debut the College PiRate Ratings and spreads for the first week of the season.
We are really excited about our selections for this season. We offer the best deal on the Internet. For just $5 a week, you can purchase our selections that finished 94-61-2 (60.6%) last year. This year, we debut our whole season value package. For just $75, you can buy our picks for the entire season, which includes the college bowls and NFL playoffs!
Go to www.piratings.webs.com for more. You can buy the entire season until September 29. Beginning August 30, you can purchase our weekly picks.
Coming tomorrow–The Sunbelt Conference preview. Is a new dominant SBC team emerging?
Hello to all football fans. The PiRate Ratings are already undergoing their initial statistical compilation for the 2010-2011 football season. We will begin previewing the FBS conference races in Mid-August and the NFL Divisions after that.
The ratings will be tweaked a little again this season as we change the weightings of the information we use to keep up to date with what wins in football these days.
Once again, we will offer picks for the unbelievably low price of $5 a week, and we will be adding the option of purchasing all our college and pro picks for the season for the 18 weeks of the regular College/Pro seasons plus the Bowls and NFL Playoffs for $75, a 25% discount! Go to our sister site at www.piratings.webs.com in August to purchase either plan.
PiRate Ratings For 2008-2009 Bowls
If you are a regular reader of this blog, you obviously know that I no longer have much use for the college bowls, and I don’t watch them any more. They have been reduced to little more than the equivalent of the NIT in college basketball, and even the BCS National Championship Game is bogus in my eyes. There is no way a computer should decide that Oklahoma and Florida are any better than Texas, Southern Cal, Penn State, or even Utah, Alabama, or Boise State. If the NCAA wants to keep this bogus system intact, they will do it without my support. Not only do I not watch and support the bowls, I do not patronize the bowl sponsors. If enough people let these sponsors know that their endorsements of these games do not help their bottom line and may actually harm it, they will stop infusing the money needed to make these games happen. Without the money, there will be no bowl games. That is the only method that will bring about a playoff system.
Here is a list of the bowl games, with the times and networks. Following this are the PiRate and Mean Ratings for these games. I will not preview any of the games.
Day | Date | Time EST | Bowl | City | Network | Team | Team |
Sat | D. 20 | 11:00 | Eagle Bank | Washington DC | ESPN | Wake Forest | Navy |
Sat | D. 20 | 2:30 | New Mexico | Albuquerque | ESPN | Colorado State | Fresno State |
Sat | D. 20 | 4:30 | St. Petersburg | St. Petersburg | ESPN 2 | South Florida | Memphis |
Sat | D. 20 | 8:00 | Las Vegas | Las Vegas | ESPN | B Y U | Arizona |
Sun | D. 21 | 8:15 | New Orleans | New Orleans | ESPN | Troy | Southern Miss. |
Tue | D. 23 | 8:00 | Poinsettia | San Diego | ESPN | Boise State | T C U |
Wed | D. 24 | 8:00 | Hawaii | Honolulu | ESPN | Hawaii | Notre Dame |
Fri | D. 26 | 8:00 | Motor City | Detroit | ESPN | Central Michigan | Florida Atlantic |
Sat | D. 27 | 1:00 | Meineke Car Care | Charlotte | ESPN | North Carolina | West Virginia |
Sat | D. 27 | 4:30 | Champs Sports | Orlando | ESPN | Florida State | Wisconsin |
Sat | D. 27 | 8:00 | Emerald | San Francisco | ESPN | California | Miami (Fl.) |
Sun | D. 28 | 8:15 | Independence | Shreveport | ESPN | Louisiana Tech | Northern Illinois |
Mon | D. 29 | 3:00 | PapaJohns | Birmingham | ESPN | N. C. State | Rutgers |
Mon | D. 29 | 8:00 | Alamo | San Antonio | ESPN | Northwestern | Missouri |
Tue | D. 30 | 4:30 | Humanitarian | Boise | ESPN | Nevada | Maryland |
Tue | D. 30 | 8:00 | Texas | Houston | NFL | Western Michigan | Rice |
Tue | D. 30 | 8:00 | Holiday | San Diego | ESPN | Oregon | Oklahoma State |
Wed | D. 31 | 12:00 | Armed Forces | Ft. Worth | ESPN | Air Force | Houston |
Wed | D. 31 | 2:00 | Sun | El Paso | CBS | Oregon State | Pittsburgh |
Wed | D. 31 | 3:30 | Music City | Nashville | ESPN | Vanderbilt | Boston College |
Wed | D. 31 | 5:30 | Insight | Tempe | NFL | Kansas | Minnesota |
Wed | D. 31 | 7:30 | Chick-fil-a | Atlanta | ESPN | Georgia Tech | L S U |
Thu | J. 1 | 11:00 | Outback | Tampa | ESPN | Iowa | South Carolina |
Thu | J. 1 | 1:00 | Capital One | Orlando | ABC | Georgia | Michigan State |
Thu | J. 1 | 1:00 | Gator | Jacksonville | CBS | Clemson | Nebraska |
Thu | J. 1 | 4:30 | Rose | Pasadena | ABC | Southern Cal | Penn State |
Thu | J. 1 | 8:30 | Orange | Miami | Fox | Virginia Tech | Cincinnati |
Fri | J. 2 | 2:00 | Cotton | Dallas | Fox | Texas Tech | Ole Miss |
Fri | J. 2 | 5:00 | Liberty | Memphis | ESPN | East Carolina | Kentucky |
Fri | J. 2 | 8:00 | Sugar | New Orleans | Fox | Alabama | Utah |
Sat | J. 3 | 12:00 | International | Toronto | ESPN 2 | Connecticut | Buffalo |
Mon | J. 5 | 8:00 | Fiesta | Glendale | Fox | Texas | Ohio State |
Tue | J. 6 | 8:00 | G M A C | Mobile | ESPN | Tulsa | Ball State |
Thu | J. 8 | 8:00 | BCS Championship | Miami | Fox | Florida | Oklahoma |
This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings |
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2008-09 Bowl Schedule |
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|
Pred. |
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Date | Bowl | Favorite | Underdog |
Spread |
Score |
D. 20 | Eagle Bank | Navy | Wake Forest |
2 |
14-12 |
D. 20 | New Mexico | Colorado State | Fresno State |
5 |
31-26 |
D. 20 | St. Petersburg | South Florida | Memphis |
17 |
38-21 |
D. 20 | Las Vegas | Arizona | B Y U |
8 |
35-27 |
D. 21 | New Orleans | Troy | Southern Miss. |
8 |
35-27 |
D. 23 | Poinsettia | T C U | Boise State |
0 |
21-21 to OT |
D. 24 | Hawaii | Notre Dame | Hawaii |
1 |
20-19 |
D. 26 | Motor City | C. Michigan | Florida Atlantic |
7 |
38-31 |
D. 27 | Meineke Car Care | West Virginia | North Carolina |
5 |
24-19 |
D. 27 | Champs Sports | Florida State | Wisconsin |
7 |
34-27 |
D. 27 | Emerald | California | Miami (Fl) |
17 |
31-14 |
D. 28 | Independence | N. Illinois | Louisiana Tech |
2 |
20-18 |
D. 29 | PapaJohns | Rutgers | N. Carolina St. |
11 |
31-20 |
D. 29 | Alamo | Missouri | Northwestern |
8 |
31-23 |
D. 30 | Humanitarian | Nevada | Maryland |
1 |
31-30 |
D. 30 | Texas | Rice | Western Michigan |
0 |
31-31 to OT |
D. 30 | Holiday | Oregon | Oklahoma St. |
6 |
34-28 |
D. 31 | Armed Forces | Houston | Air Force |
2 |
30-28 |
D. 31 | Sun | Oregon State | Pittsburgh |
1 |
28-27 |
D. 31 | Music City | Boston College | Vanderbilt |
1 |
17-16 |
D. 31 | Insight | Kansas | Minnesota |
17 |
31-14 |
D. 31 | Chick-fil-a | Georgia Tech | L S U |
6 |
30-24 |
J. 1 | Outback | Iowa | South Carolina |
9 |
26-17 |
J. 1 | Capital One | Georgia | Michigan State |
11 |
31-20 |
J. 1 | Gator | Clemson | Nebraska |
5 |
28-23 |
J. 1 | Rose | Southern Cal | Penn State |
9 |
23-14 |
J. 1 | Orange | Cincinnati | Virginia Tech |
1 |
21-20 |
J. 2 | Cotton | Ole Miss | Texas Tech |
1 |
38-37 |
J. 2 | Liberty | Kentucky | East Carolina |
3 |
24-21 |
J. 2 | Sugar | Alabama | Utah |
7 |
20-13 |
J. 3 | International | Connecticut | Buffalo |
1 |
28-27 |
J. 5 | Fiesta | Texas | Ohio State |
1 |
35-34 |
J. 6 | G M A C | Ball State | Tulsa |
6 |
41-35 |
J. 8 | BCS Championship | Florida | Oklahoma |
2 |
44-42 |
This Week’s Games–Mean Ratings |
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2008-09 Bowl Schedule |
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Pred. | ||||
Date | Bowl | Favorite | Underdog | Score |
D. 20 | Eagle Bank | Wake Forest | Navy | 21-20 |
D. 20 | New Mexico | Colorado State | Fresno State | 27-27 to ot |
D. 20 | St. Petersburg | South Florida | Memphis | 21-10 |
D. 20 | Las Vegas | Arizona | B Y U | 28-27 |
D. 21 | New Orleans | Troy | Southern Miss. | 31-28 |
D. 23 | Poinsettia | T C U | Boise State | 21-21 to ot |
D. 24 | Hawaii | Notre Dame | Hawaii | 21-19 |
D. 26 | Motor City | C. Michigan | Florida Atlantic | 35-28 |
D. 27 | Meineke Car Care | West Virginia | North Carolina | 24-23 |
D. 27 | Champs Sports | Florida State | Wisconsin | 30-24 |
D. 27 | Emerald | California | Miami (Fl) | 27-20 |
D. 28 | Independence | N. Illinois | Louisiana Tech | 30-28 |
D. 29 | PapaJohns | Rutgers | N. Carolina St. | 35-30 |
D. 29 | Alamo | Missouri | Northwestern | 38-31 |
D. 30 | Humanitarian | Nevada | Maryland | 30-28 |
D. 30 | Texas | Rice | W. Michigan | 38-38 to ot |
D. 30 | Holiday | Oklahoma St. | Oregon | 35-34 |
D. 31 | Armed Forces | Air Force | Houston | 33-31 |
D. 31 | Sun | Oregon State | Pittsburgh | 28-26 |
D. 31 | Music City | Boston College | Vanderbilt | 13-7 |
D. 31 | Insight | Kansas | Minnesota | 38-31 |
D. 31 | Chick-fil-a | Georgia Tech | L S U | 41-34 |
J. 1 | Outback | Iowa | South Carolina | 26-21 |
J. 1 | Capital One | Georgia | Michigan State | 27-24 |
J. 1 | Gator | Clemson | Nebraska | 31-30 |
J. 1 | Rose | Southern Cal | Penn State | 17-12 |
J. 1 | Orange | Cincinnati | Virginia Tech | 16-16 to ot |
J. 2 | Cotton | Texas Tech | Ole Miss | 41-33 |
J. 2 | Liberty | East Carolina | Kentucky | 27-24 |
J. 2 | Sugar | Alabama | Utah | 21-20 |
J. 3 | International | Connecticut | Buffalo | 20-17 |
J. 5 | Fiesta | Texas | Ohio State | 34-27 |
J. 6 | G M A C | Ball State | Tulsa | 35-30 |
J. 8 | Nat’l Championship | Florida | Oklahoma | 38-38 to ot |
For those who desire a playoff and want to see the results of a simulated version of my proposed 2008-2009 season, tune in Sunday, December 21, for the quarterfinal round. The first round of my 12-team simulation was played last week, with Ohio State defeating Texas Tech, Southern Cal beating Virginia Tech, Boise State upsetting Penn State, and Utah edging Cincinnati.
The quarterfinal matches pit Ohio State against Florida, Southern Cal against Alabama, Boise State against Oklahoma, and Utah against Texas. The results and stats of this round will be posted Sunday, December 21, around Noon Eastern Time.
NCAA Regular Season Summation
Congratulations go to Oklahoma and Florida, and my condolences go to Texas, Southern Cal, and Penn State, and Alabama. Some biased poll voters, a couple of computer geeks, and a couple of sports elitists have determined that the Sooners and Gators are a couple hundredths of a percentage point better than the rest of the pack and deserve to play for the national title.
Florida lost their one game at home. Oklahoma lost their one game on a neutral field to one of the other teams up for consideration. Alabama’s loss on a neutral field to Florida is the exact same situation. Texas lost on the road to an undefeated Texas Tech team on the final play of the game. Southern Cal lost on the road at Oregon State with one late play figuring greatly in the outcome. Penn State lost on the road at Iowa on the final play of the game. So, the computers can tell us that Florida and Oklahoma are the two most deserving?
Here are the final regular season PiRate Top 25 and the PiRate Ratings by conference:
NCAA Top 25 For 2-Dec-2008 |
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Rank |
Team |
PiRate |
Won |
Lost |
1 |
Florida |
140 |
12 |
1 |
2 |
Oklahoma |
139 |
12 |
1 |
3 |
Southern Cal |
131 |
11 |
1 |
4 |
Texas |
128 |
11 |
1 |
5 |
Ohio St. |
127 |
10 |
2 |
6 |
Alabama |
125 |
12 |
1 |
7 |
Penn St. |
125 |
11 |
1 |
8 |
Ole Miss |
121 |
8 |
4 |
9 |
Texas Tech |
120 |
11 |
1 |
10 |
Boise State |
120 |
12 |
0 |
11 |
T C U |
120 |
10 |
2 |
12 |
Oregon |
120 |
9 |
3 |
13 |
Utah |
118 |
12 |
0 |
14 |
Iowa |
117 |
8 |
4 |
15 |
Rutgers |
117 |
7 |
5 |
16 |
California |
116 |
8 |
4 |
17 |
Georgia |
115 |
9 |
3 |
18 |
Oklahoma St. |
114 |
9 |
3 |
19 |
Arizona |
114 |
7 |
5 |
20 |
Clemson |
113 |
7 |
5 |
21 |
Oregon State |
113 |
8 |
4 |
22 |
Missouri |
113 |
9 |
4 |
23 |
Florida State |
112 |
8 |
4 |
24 |
Pittsburgh |
112 |
9 |
3 |
25 |
Cincinnati |
110 |
11 |
2 |
|
|
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Note: Ratings rounded to nearest whole number |
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even though I rank them to two decimal points |
Atlantic Coast Conference |
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Atlantic Division |
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|
|
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Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Clemson |
4-4 |
7-5 |
113 |
68 |
45 |
Florida State |
5-3 |
8-4 |
112 |
70 |
42 |
North Carolina State |
4-4 |
6-6 |
106 |
70 |
36 |
Boston College |
5-3* |
9-4 |
104 |
63 |
41 |
Wake Forest |
4-4 |
7-5 |
104 |
56 |
48 |
Maryland |
4-4 |
7-5 |
101 |
62 |
39 |
|
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|
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Coastal Division |
|
|
|
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Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Virginia Tech |
5-3*+ |
9-4 |
109 |
67 |
42 |
Georgia Tech |
5-3 |
9-3 |
109 |
68 |
41 |
North Carolina |
4-4 |
8-4 |
105 |
66 |
39 |
Miami |
4-4 |
7-5 |
102 |
60 |
42 |
Virginia |
3-5 |
5-7 |
100 |
58 |
42 |
Duke |
1-7 |
4-8 |
93 |
60 |
33 |
Big East Conference |
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|
|
|
|||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Rutgers |
5-2 |
7-5 |
117 |
70 |
47 |
Pittsburgh |
5-2 |
9-3 |
112 |
66 |
46 |
Cincinnati |
6-1 |
11-2 |
110 |
64 |
46 |
West Virginia |
5-2 |
8-4 |
110 |
65 |
45 |
South Florida |
2-5 |
7-5 |
106 |
68 |
38 |
Connecticut |
3-4 |
7-5 |
102 |
64 |
38 |
Louisville |
1-6 |
5-7 |
91 |
57 |
34 |
Syracuse |
1-6 |
3-9 |
89 |
56 |
33 |
Big Ten |
|||||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Ohio State |
7-1 |
10-2 |
127 |
71 |
56 |
Penn State |
7-1 |
11-1 |
125 |
76 |
49 |
Iowa |
5-3 |
8-4 |
117 |
72 |
45 |
Wisconsin |
3-5 |
7-5 |
107 |
71 |
36 |
Northwestern |
5-3 |
9-3 |
105 |
64 |
41 |
Michigan State |
6-2 |
9-3 |
104 |
64 |
40 |
Purdue |
2-6 |
4-8 |
103 |
67 |
36 |
Illinois |
3-5 |
5-7 |
102 |
65 |
37 |
Michigan |
2-6 |
3-9 |
96 |
57 |
39 |
Minnesota |
3-5 |
7-5 |
92 |
58 |
34 |
Indiana |
1-7 |
3-9 |
79 |
54 |
25 |
Big 12 |
|||||
North Division | |||||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Missouri |
5-3* |
9-4 |
113 |
74 |
39 |
Kansas |
4-4 |
7-5 |
109 |
67 |
42 |
Nebraska |
5-3 |
8-4 |
108 |
70 |
38 |
Colorado |
2-6 |
5-7 |
95 |
57 |
38 |
Kansas State |
2-6 |
5-7 |
92 |
67 |
25 |
Iowa State |
0-8 |
2-10 |
86 |
57 |
29 |
South Division | |||||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Oklahoma |
7-1+ |
12-1 |
139 |
97 |
42 |
Texas |
7-1 |
11-1 |
128 |
82 |
46 |
Texas Tech |
7-1 |
11-1 |
120 |
85 |
35 |
Oklahoma State |
5-3 |
9-3 |
114 |
71 |
43 |
Baylor |
2-6 |
4-8 |
106 |
68 |
38 |
Texas A&M |
2-6 |
4-8 |
90 |
56 |
34 |
Conference USA |
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East Division | |||||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
East Carolina |
6-2+ |
9-4 |
99 |
62 |
37 |
Southern Miss. |
4-4 |
6-6 |
97 |
64 |
33 |
Memphis |
4-4 |
6-6 |
92 |
61 |
31 |
Marshall |
3-5 |
4-8 |
89 |
58 |
31 |
Central Florida |
3-5 |
4-8 |
88 |
46 |
42 |
U A B |
3-5 |
4-8 |
84 |
51 |
33 |
West Division | |||||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Tulsa |
7-1* |
10-3 |
103 |
72 |
31 |
Rice |
7-1 |
9-3 |
97 |
66 |
31 |
Houston |
6-2 |
7-5 |
97 |
67 |
30 |
U T E P |
4-4 |
5-7 |
87 |
59 |
28 |
S M U |
0-8 |
1-11 |
78 |
57 |
21 |
Tulane |
1-7 |
2-10 |
69 |
50 |
19 |
Independents |
|||||
Team |
|
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Navy |
8-4 |
104 |
61 |
43 |
|
Notre Dame |
6-6 |
98 |
58 |
40 |
|
Army |
3-9 |
82 |
46 |
36 |
Mid American Conference |
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East Division | |||||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Bowling Green |
4-4 |
6-6 |
103 |
68 |
35 |
Buffalo |
5-3+ |
8-5 |
101 |
68 |
33 |
Temple |
4-4 |
5-7 |
96 |
57 |
39 |
Ohio U |
3-5 |
4-8 |
91 |
51 |
40 |
Kent State |
3-5 |
4-8 |
89 |
58 |
31 |
Akron |
3-5 |
5-7 |
89 |
60 |
29 |
Miami (O) |
1-7 |
2-10 |
81 |
54 |
27 |
West Division | |||||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Ball State |
8-0 |
12-1 |
109 |
73 |
36 |
Western Michigan |
6-2 |
9-3 |
100 |
63 |
37 |
Northern Illinois |
5-3 |
6-6 |
98 |
59 |
39 |
Central Michigan |
6-2 |
8-4 |
97 |
68 |
29 |
Eastern Michigan |
2-6 |
3-9 |
88 |
59 |
29 |
Toledo |
2-6 |
3-9 |
85 |
55 |
30 |
Mountain West Conference |
|||||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
T C U |
7-1 |
10-2 |
120 |
68 |
52 |
Utah |
8-0 |
12-0 |
118 |
70 |
48 |
Brigham Young |
6-2 |
10-2 |
106 |
67 |
39 |
Air Force |
5-3 |
8-4 |
95 |
58 |
37 |
Colorado State |
4-4 |
6-6 |
93 |
60 |
33 |
New Mexico |
2-6 |
4-8 |
93 |
56 |
37 |
UNLV |
2-6 |
5-7 |
85 |
56 |
29 |
Wyoming |
1-7 |
4-8 |
85 |
51 |
34 |
San Diego State |
1-7 |
2-10 |
76 |
49 |
27 |
Pac-10 Conference |
|||||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Southern Cal |
7-1 |
11-1 |
131 |
72 |
59 |
Oregon |
7-2 |
9-3 |
120 |
77 |
43 |
California |
6-3 |
8-4 |
116 |
73 |
43 |
Arizona |
5-4 |
7-5 |
114 |
75 |
39 |
Oregon State |
7-2 |
8-4 |
113 |
74 |
39 |
Stanford |
4-5 |
5-7 |
106 |
64 |
42 |
Arizona State |
4-5 |
5-7 |
103 |
63 |
40 |
U C L A |
3-6 |
4-8 |
100 |
57 |
43 |
Washington |
0-9 |
0-12 |
81 |
54 |
27 |
Washington State |
1-8 |
2-11 |
74 |
49 |
25 |
Southeastern Conference |
|||||
East Division | |||||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Florida |
7-1+ |
12-1 |
140 |
86 |
54 |
Georgia |
6-2 |
9-3 |
115 |
73 |
42 |
South Carolina |
4-4 |
7-5 |
108 |
63 |
45 |
Tennessee |
3-5 |
5-7 |
107 |
62 |
45 |
Kentucky |
2-6 |
6-6 |
102 |
62 |
40 |
Vanderbilt |
4-4 |
6-6 |
100 |
55 |
45 |
West Division | |||||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Alabama |
8-0 |
12-1 |
125 |
69 |
56 |
Ole Miss |
5-3 |
8-4 |
121 |
74 |
47 |
L S U |
3-5 |
7-5 |
106 |
68 |
38 |
Arkansas |
2-6 |
5-7 |
102 |
68 |
34 |
Auburn |
2-6 |
5-7 |
102 |
56 |
46 |
Mississippi State |
2-6 |
4-8 |
97 |
55 |
42 |
Sunbelt Conference |
|||||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Troy |
6-1 |
8-4 |
105 |
69 |
36 |
Florida Atlantic |
4-3 |
6-6 |
90 |
61 |
29 |
Middle Tennessee |
3-4 |
5-7 |
90 |
58 |
32 |
Arkansas State |
4-3 |
6-6 |
89 |
59 |
30 |
Florida International |
3-4 |
5-7 |
89 |
58 |
31 |
Louisiana-Lafayette |
5-2 |
6-6 |
88 |
66 |
22 |
Louisiana-Monroe |
3-4 |
4-8 |
87 |
56 |
31 |
* Western Kentucky |
0-0 |
2-10 |
79 |
49 |
30 |
North Texas |
0-7 |
1-11 |
70 |
55 |
15 |
* Western Kentucky will become eligible in 2009 | |||||
Their games will not count in the SBC Standings in 2008 |
Western Athletic Conference |
|||||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Boise State |
8-0 |
12-0 |
120 |
74 |
46 |
Nevada |
5-3 |
7-5 |
102 |
73 |
29 |
Louisiana Tech |
5-3 |
7-5 |
94 |
56 |
38 |
Utah State |
3-5 |
3-9 |
93 |
57 |
36 |
Hawaii |
5-3 |
7-6 |
93 |
55 |
38 |
Fresno State |
4-4 |
7-5 |
88 |
61 |
27 |
San Jose State |
4-4 |
6-6 |
85 |
53 |
32 |
New Mexico State |
1-7 |
3-9 |
74 |
48 |
26 |
Idaho |
1-7 |
2-10 |
73 |
57 |
16 |
Here is the bowl schedule
Date |
Time EST |
Bowl |
City |
Team |
Team |
D. 20 |
11:00 |
Eagle Bank |
Washington DC |
Wake Forest |
Navy |
D. 20 |
2:30 |
New Mexico |
Albuquerque |
Colorado State |
Fresno State |
D. 20 |
4:30 |
St. Petersburg |
St. Petersburg |
South Florida |
Memphis |
D. 20 |
8:00 |
Las Vegas |
Las Vegas |
B Y U |
Arizona |
D. 21 |
8:15 |
New Orleans |
New Orleans |
Troy |
Southern Miss. |
D. 23 |
8:00 |
Poinsettia |
San Diego |
Boise State |
T C U |
D. 24 |
8:00 |
Hawaii |
Honolulu |
Hawaii |
Notre Dame |
D. 26 |
8:00 |
Motor City |
Detroit |
Central Michigan |
Florida Atlantic |
D. 27 |
1:00 |
Meineke Car Care |
Charlotte |
North Carolina |
West Virginia |
D. 27 |
4:30 |
Champs Sports |
Orlando |
Florida State |
Wisconsin |
D. 27 |
8:00 |
Emerald |
San Francisco |
California |
Miami (Fl.) |
D. 28 |
8:15 |
Independence |
Shrevport |
Louisiana Tech |
Northern Illinois |
D. 29 |
3:00 |
PapaJohns |
Birmingham |
N. C. State |
Rutgers |
D. 29 |
8:00 |
Alamo |
San Antonio |
Northwestern |
Missouri |
D. 30 |
4:30 |
Humanitarian |
Boise |
Nevada |
Maryland |
D. 30 |
8:00 |
Texas |
Houston |
Western Michigan |
Rice |
D. 30 |
8:00 |
Holiday |
San Diego |
Oregon |
Oklahoma State |
D. 31 |
12:00 |
Armed Forces |
Ft. Worth |
Air Force |
Houston |
D. 31 |
2:00 |
Sun |
El Paso |
Oregon State |
Pittsburgh |
D. 31 |
3:30 |
Music City |
Nashville |
Vanderbilt |
Boston College |
D. 31 |
5:30 |
Insight |
Tempe |
Kansas |
Minnesota |
D. 31 |
7:30 |
Chick-fil-a |
Atlanta |
Georgia Tech |
L S U |
J. 1 |
11:00 |
Outback |
Tampa |
Iowa |
South Carolina |
J. 1 |
1:00 |
Capital One |
Orlando |
Georgia |
Michigan State |
J. 1 |
1:00 |
Gator |
Jacksonville |
Clemson |
Nebraska |
J. 1 |
4:30 |
Rose |
Pasadena |
Southern Cal |
Penn State |
J. 1 |
8:30 |
Orange |
Miami |
Virginia Tech |
Cincinnati |
J. 2 |
2:00 |
Cotton |
Dallas |
Texas Tech |
Ole Miss |
J. 2 |
5:00 |
Liberty |
Memphis |
East Carolina |
Kentucky |
J. 2 |
8:00 |
Sugar |
New Orleans |
Alabama |
Utah |
J. 3 |
12:00 |
International |
Toronto |
Connecticut |
Buffalo |
J. 5 |
8:00 |
Fiesta |
Glendale |
Texas |
Ohio State |
J. 6 |
8:00 |
G M A C |
Mobile |
Tulsa |
Ball State |
J. 8 |
8:00 |
Nat’l Championship |
Miami |
Florida |
Oklahoma |
NCAA Week 15: The Postseason Falls to BieCeS
With one weekend remaining in the regular season, the dreadful BCS has suffered from yet another snafu. Oklahoma is in the Big 12 Championship Game because a computer or two has deemed the Sooners to be a tiny bit better than the Longhorns even though Texas beat them by 10 points on a neutral field. The Big 12 should have never used BCS ranking to break three-way ties, but then again the BCS shouldn’t be there in the first place for the Big 12 brass to be dumb enough to use it as its tiebreaker.
I don’t advocate that Texas should be in that title game instead of Oklahoma or even Texas Tech. I don’t believe the BCS system to be credible; the vote of Oklahoma over Texas is ridiculous, and if Texas had been voted in by a miniscule amount, it would have been just as ridiculous.
If Oklahoma wins this week over an inferior Missouri squad, the Sooners will play for the national title against the winner of the Alabama-Florida game. Southern Cal, Texas Tech, and Penn State, as well as Utah, Boise State, and Ball State among other top contenders will get no chance to compete for all the marbles.
The Top 25 had very little movement after this past weekend. The bowl situations started to come into focus, as information started to leak out on which bowls want which teams if they are available. So, when you read the bowl section below, realize that these are not just predictions now; some of the teams are slotted based on leaked information from bowl scouts.
Personally, I believe Florida and Southern Cal are the two best teams in the nation. The Gators’ offense is as good as any college team in 13 years, while the Trojans’ defense is the best college defense in 16 years.
NCAA Top 25 For 2-Dec-2008 |
||||
Rank |
Team |
PiRate |
Won |
Lost |
1 |
Florida |
141 |
11 |
1 |
2 |
Oklahoma |
134 |
11 |
1 |
3 |
Southern Cal |
132 |
10 |
1 |
4 |
Texas |
128 |
11 |
1 |
5 |
Ohio St. |
127 |
10 |
2 |
6 |
Penn St. |
125 |
11 |
1 |
7 |
Alabama |
124 |
12 |
0 |
8 |
Ole Miss |
121 |
8 |
4 |
9 |
Texas Tech |
120 |
11 |
1 |
10 |
Boise State |
120 |
12 |
0 |
11 |
T C U |
120 |
10 |
2 |
12 |
Oregon |
120 |
9 |
3 |
13 |
Utah |
118 |
12 |
0 |
14 |
Missouri |
118 |
9 |
3 |
15 |
Iowa |
117 |
8 |
4 |
16 |
Georgia |
115 |
9 |
3 |
17 |
Ball State |
114 |
12 |
0 |
18 |
California |
114 |
7 |
4 |
19 |
Oklahoma St. |
114 |
9 |
3 |
20 |
Clemson |
113 |
7 |
5 |
21 |
Oregon State |
113 |
8 |
4 |
22 |
Florida State |
112 |
8 |
4 |
23 |
Rutgers |
112 |
6 |
5 |
24 |
Cincinnati |
111 |
10 |
2 |
25 |
Arizona |
111 |
6 |
5 |
|
|
|||
Note: Ratings rounded to nearest whole number |
||||
even though I rank them to two decimal points |
PiRate Ratings By Conference
Atlantic Coast Conference |
|||||
Atlantic Division |
|
|
|
||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Clemson |
4-4 |
7-5 |
113 |
68 |
45 |
Florida State |
5-3 |
8-4 |
112 |
70 |
42 |
Boston College |
5-3* |
9-3 |
107 |
65 |
42 |
North Carolina State |
4-4 |
6-6 |
106 |
70 |
36 |
Wake Forest |
4-4 |
7-5 |
104 |
56 |
48 |
Maryland |
4-4 |
7-5 |
101 |
62 |
39 |
|
|
|
|||
Coastal Division |
|
|
|
||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Georgia Tech |
5-3 |
9-3 |
109 |
68 |
41 |
Virginia Tech |
5-3* |
8-4 |
106 |
65 |
41 |
North Carolina |
4-4 |
8-4 |
105 |
66 |
39 |
Miami |
4-4 |
7-5 |
102 |
60 |
42 |
Virginia |
3-5 |
5-7 |
100 |
58 |
42 |
Duke |
1-7 |
4-8 |
93 |
60 |
33 |
Big East Conference |
|||||
|
|
|
|||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Rutgers |
4-2 |
6-5 |
112 |
67 |
45 |
Cincinnati |
6-1 |
10-2 |
111 |
65 |
46 |
West Virginia |
4-2 |
7-4 |
111 |
66 |
45 |
Pittsburgh |
4-2 |
8-3 |
109 |
65 |
44 |
Connecticut |
3-3 |
7-4 |
105 |
65 |
40 |
South Florida |
2-4 |
7-4 |
105 |
68 |
37 |
Louisville |
1-5 |
5-6 |
96 |
59 |
37 |
Syracuse |
1-6 |
3-9 |
89 |
56 |
33 |
Big Ten |
|||||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Ohio State |
7-1 |
10-2 |
127 |
71 |
56 |
Penn State |
7-1 |
11-1 |
125 |
76 |
49 |
Iowa |
5-3 |
8-4 |
117 |
72 |
45 |
Wisconsin |
3-5 |
7-5 |
107 |
71 |
36 |
Northwestern |
5-3 |
9-3 |
105 |
64 |
41 |
Michigan State |
6-2 |
9-3 |
104 |
64 |
40 |
Purdue |
2-6 |
4-8 |
103 |
67 |
36 |
Illinois |
3-5 |
5-7 |
102 |
65 |
37 |
Michigan |
2-6 |
3-9 |
96 |
57 |
39 |
Minnesota |
3-5 |
7-5 |
92 |
58 |
34 |
Indiana |
1-7 |
3-9 |
79 |
54 |
25 |
Big 12 |
|||||
North Division | |||||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Missouri |
5-3* |
9-3 |
118 |
75 |
43 |
Kansas |
4-4 |
7-5 |
109 |
67 |
42 |
Nebraska |
5-3 |
8-4 |
108 |
70 |
38 |
Colorado |
2-6 |
5-7 |
95 |
57 |
38 |
Kansas State |
2-6 |
5-7 |
92 |
67 |
25 |
Iowa State |
0-8 |
2-10 |
86 |
57 |
29 |
South Division | |||||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Oklahoma |
7-1 |
11-1 |
134 |
93 |
41 |
Texas |
7-1 |
11-1 |
128 |
82 |
46 |
Texas Tech |
7-1 |
11-1 |
120 |
85 |
35 |
Oklahoma State |
5-3 |
9-3 |
114 |
71 |
43 |
Baylor |
2-6 |
4-8 |
106 |
68 |
38 |
Texas A&M |
2-6 |
4-8 |
90 |
56 |
34 |
Conference USA |
|||||
East Division | |||||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
East Carolina |
6-2 |
8-4 |
98 |
62 |
36 |
Southern Miss. |
4-4 |
6-6 |
97 |
64 |
33 |
Memphis |
4-4 |
6-6 |
92 |
61 |
31 |
Marshall |
3-5 |
4-8 |
89 |
58 |
31 |
Central Florida |
3-5 |
4-8 |
88 |
46 |
42 |
U A B |
3-5 |
4-8 |
84 |
51 |
33 |
West Division | |||||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Tulsa |
7-1* |
10-2 |
104 |
73 |
31 |
Rice |
7-1 |
9-3 |
97 |
66 |
31 |
Houston |
6-2 |
7-5 |
97 |
67 |
30 |
U T E P |
4-4 |
5-7 |
87 |
59 |
28 |
S M U |
0-8 |
1-11 |
78 |
57 |
21 |
Tulane |
1-7 |
2-10 |
69 |
50 |
19 |
Independents |
|||||
Team |
|
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Navy |
7-4 |
100 |
60 |
40 |
|
Notre Dame |
6-6 |
98 |
58 |
40 |
|
Army |
3-8 |
86 |
49 |
37 |
Mid American Conference |
|||||
East Division | |||||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Bowling Green |
4-4 |
6-6 |
103 |
68 |
35 |
Buffalo |
5-3 |
7-5 |
96 |
64 |
32 |
Temple |
4-4 |
5-7 |
96 |
57 |
39 |
Ohio U |
3-5 |
4-8 |
91 |
51 |
40 |
Kent State |
3-5 |
4-8 |
89 |
58 |
31 |
Akron |
3-5 |
5-7 |
89 |
60 |
29 |
Miami (O) |
1-7 |
2-10 |
81 |
54 |
27 |
West Division | |||||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Ball State |
8-0 |
12-0 |
114 |
75 |
39 |
Western Michigan |
6-2 |
9-3 |
100 |
63 |
37 |
Northern Illinois |
5-3 |
6-6 |
98 |
59 |
39 |
Central Michigan |
6-2 |
8-4 |
97 |
68 |
29 |
Eastern Michigan |
2-6 |
3-9 |
88 |
59 |
29 |
Toledo |
2-6 |
3-9 |
85 |
55 |
30 |
Mountain West Conference |
|||||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
T C U |
7-1 |
10-2 |
120 |
68 |
52 |
Utah |
8-0 |
12-0 |
118 |
70 |
48 |
Brigham Young |
6-2 |
10-2 |
106 |
67 |
39 |
Air Force |
5-3 |
8-4 |
95 |
58 |
37 |
Colorado State |
4-4 |
6-6 |
93 |
60 |
33 |
New Mexico |
2-6 |
4-8 |
93 |
56 |
37 |
UNLV |
2-6 |
5-7 |
85 |
56 |
29 |
Wyoming |
1-7 |
4-8 |
85 |
51 |
34 |
San Diego State |
1-7 |
2-10 |
76 |
49 |
27 |
Pac-10 Conference |
|||||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Southern Cal |
7-1 |
10-1 |
132 |
73 |
59 |
Oregon |
7-2 |
9-3 |
120 |
77 |
43 |
California |
5-3 |
7-4 |
114 |
72 |
42 |
Oregon State |
7-2 |
8-4 |
113 |
74 |
39 |
Arizona |
4-4 |
6-5 |
111 |
74 |
37 |
Arizona State |
4-4 |
5-6 |
106 |
65 |
41 |
Stanford |
4-5 |
5-7 |
106 |
64 |
42 |
U C L A |
3-5 |
4-7 |
99 |
57 |
42 |
Washington |
0-8 |
0-11 |
83 |
55 |
28 |
Washington State |
1-8 |
2-11 |
74 |
49 |
25 |
Southeastern Conference |
|||||
East Division | |||||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Florida |
7-1 |
11-1 |
141 |
87 |
54 |
Georgia |
6-2 |
9-3 |
115 |
73 |
42 |
South Carolina |
4-4 |
7-5 |
108 |
63 |
45 |
Tennessee |
3-5 |
5-7 |
107 |
62 |
45 |
Kentucky |
2-6 |
6-6 |
102 |
62 |
40 |
Vanderbilt |
4-4 |
6-6 |
100 |
55 |
45 |
West Division | |||||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Alabama |
8-0 |
12-0 |
124 |
69 |
55 |
Ole Miss |
5-3 |
8-4 |
121 |
74 |
47 |
L S U |
3-5 |
7-5 |
106 |
68 |
38 |
Arkansas |
2-6 |
5-7 |
102 |
68 |
34 |
Auburn |
2-6 |
5-7 |
102 |
56 |
46 |
Mississippi State |
2-6 |
4-8 |
97 |
55 |
42 |
Sunbelt Conference |
|||||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Troy |
5-1 |
7-4 |
104 |
68 |
36 |
Middle Tennessee |
3-3 |
5-6 |
92 |
58 |
34 |
Arkansas State |
4-2 |
6-5 |
90 |
60 |
30 |
Florida Atlantic |
4-3 |
6-6 |
90 |
61 |
29 |
Louisiana-Monroe |
3-4 |
4-8 |
87 |
56 |
31 |
Louisiana-Lafayette |
4-2 |
5-6 |
86 |
64 |
22 |
Florida International |
3-4 |
4-7 |
86 |
57 |
29 |
* Western Kentucky |
0-0 |
2-9 |
82 |
51 |
31 |
North Texas |
0-7 |
1-11 |
70 |
55 |
15 |
* Western Kentucky will become eligible in 2009 | |||||
Their games will not count in the SBC Standings in 2008 |
Western Athletic Conference |
|||||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Boise State |
8-0 |
12-0 |
120 |
74 |
46 |
Nevada |
5-3 |
7-5 |
102 |
73 |
29 |
Louisiana Tech |
5-3 |
7-5 |
94 |
56 |
38 |
Utah State |
3-5 |
3-9 |
93 |
57 |
36 |
Hawaii |
5-3 |
7-5 |
91 |
54 |
37 |
Fresno State |
4-4 |
7-5 |
88 |
61 |
27 |
San Jose State |
4-4 |
6-6 |
85 |
53 |
32 |
New Mexico State |
1-7 |
3-9 |
74 |
48 |
26 |
Idaho |
1-7 |
2-10 |
73 |
57 |
16 |
This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings |
|||
Home Team in CAPS | (N) Denotes Neutral Site |
|
|
|
|
||
Wednesday, December 3 |
|
|
|
Favorite | Underdog |
Pred. Spread |
Approx. Score |
Middle Tennessee | LA.-LAFAYETTE |
3 |
34-31 |
|
|
||
Thursday, December 4 |
|
|
|
Favorite | Underdog |
Pred. Spread |
Approx. Score |
RUTGERS | Louisville |
19 |
31-12 |
|
|
||
Friday, December 5 |
|
|
|
Favorite | Underdog |
Pred. Spread |
Approx. Score |
Ball State (Detroit) | Buffalo |
18 |
42-24 |
|
|
||
Saturday, December 6 | |||
Favorite | Underdog |
Pred. Spread |
Approx. Score |
Pittsburgh | CONNECTICUT |
1 |
24-23 |
TULSA | East Carolina |
9 |
40-31 |
Navy | Army |
14 |
21-7 |
Boston College | Virginia Tech |
1 |
21-20 |
CALIFORNIA | Washington |
34 |
44-10 |
Florida | Alabama |
17 |
31-14 |
Southern Cal | U C L A |
30 |
30-0 |
FLA. INT’L | Western Ky. |
7 |
28-21 |
TROY | Arkansas State |
17 |
38-21 |
ARIZONA | Arizona State |
8 |
35-27 |
WEST VIRGINIA | South Florida |
9 |
30-21 |
Oklahoma | Missouri |
16 |
49-33 |
Cincinnati | HAWAII |
16 |
26-10 |
This Week’s Games–Mean Ratings |
||
Home Team in CAPS | (N) Denotes Neutral Site |
|
Wednesday, December 3 |
|
|
Favorite | Underdog |
Pred. Score |
LA.-LAFAYETTE | Middle Tennessee |
27-24 |
|
||
Thursday, December 4 |
|
|
Favorite | Underdog |
Pred. Score |
RUTGERS | Louisville |
34-21 |
|
||
Friday, December 5 |
|
|
Favorite | Underdog |
Pred. Score |
Ball State (Detroit) | Buffalo |
37-24 |
|
||
Saturday, December 6 |
|
|
Favorite | Underdog |
Pred. Score |
Pittsburgh | CONNECTICUT |
21-21 to OT |
TULSA | East Carolina |
42-34 |
Navy (Philadelphia) | Army |
35-24 |
Boston Coll. (Jacksonville) | Virginia Tech |
20-17 |
CALIFORNIA | Washington |
42-10 |
Florida (Atlanta) | Alabama |
27-17 |
Southern Cal | U C L A |
34-7 |
FLA. INT’L | Western Ky. |
30-20 |
TROY | Arkansas State |
34-24 |
ARIZONA | Arizona State |
28-20 |
WEST VIRGINIA | South Florida |
24-19 |
Oklahoma (Kansas City) | Missouri |
44-31 |
Cincinnati | HAWAII |
27-17 |
Bowl Outlook By Conference
Teams in all CAPS have already accepted invitations to that bowl.
ACC
After having a new team at the top of each division for multiple weeks, Boston College and Virginia Tech both won last week when they had to win. Now, the winner of their game will advance to the Orange Bowl, while the loser probably drops to the Champs Sports Bowl.
With Georgia Tech’s win over Georgia, their hometown bowl will be glad to take the Yellow Jackets. That bowl prefers a ranked team coming off a win, and Tech fits that bill.
Florida State will get the Gator Bowl invitation regardless of how the ACC title game turns out. The Gator Bowl does not want to have the loser of the title game returning to Jacksonville three weeks later.
1. Orange Bowl-Boston College 10-3 vs. Cincinnati
2. Chick-fil-a-Georgia Tech 9-3 vs. L S U
3. Gator-Florida State 8-4 vs. Nebraska
4. Champs Sports-Virginia Tech 8-5 vs. Wisconsin
5. Music City-North Carolina 8-4 vs. Vanderbilt
6. Meineke Car Care-Miami 7-5 vs. West Virginia
7. Eagle Bank-Wake Forest 7-5 vs. NAVY
8. Emerald-Clemson 7-5 vs. California
9. Humanitarian-Maryland 7-5 vs. Nevada
10. Hawaii (at-large)-N.C. State 6-6 vs. Southern Miss.
Big East
Cincinnati has clinched a BCS Bowl spot. The Bearcats are more than likely headed to the Orange Bowl.
Notre Dame’s loss to USC means the Irish may not seize one of this league’s bids. If Rutgers beats Louisville, then there will be six, seven-win bowl eligible teams for six bowls; Notre Dame would not be eligible for a Big East Bowl, so they would become the top 6-6 at-large possibility. Should Louisville win this week, then Notre Dame will be headed to El Paso.
1. Orange-Cincinnati 11-2 vs. Boston College
2. Sun-Rutgers 7-5 vs. Oregon State
3. St. Petersburg-South Florida 7-5 vs. East Carolina
4. Meineke Car Care-West Virginia 8-4 vs. Miami (Fla)
5. International-Connecticut 8-4 vs. Buffalo
6. Papa John’s-Pittsburgh 8-4 vs. Middle Tennessee State
Big Ten
Ohio State is almost assured to get the final BCS Bowl bid over Boise State, so the Big Ten will not have enough bowl-eligible teams for their seven allotted bids. That may open the Motor City Bowl for a possible match of undefeated teams.
Although not technically official, Penn State has been mathematically eliminated from moving into the National Championship Game. Thus, I have them “officially” in the Rose Bowl.
1. Rose-PENN STATE 11-1 vs. Southern Cal
2. Fiesta-Ohio State 10-2 vs. Texas
3. Capital One-Michigan State 9-3 vs. Georgia
3. Outback-Iowa 8-4 vs. South Carolina
4. Champs Sports-Wisconsin 7-5 vs. Virginia Tech
5. Alamo-Northwestern 9-3 vs. Missouri
6. Insight-Minnesota 7-5 vs. Kansas
7. Motor City-No qualifying team
Big 12
Missouri is being overlooked by everybody but Oklahoma this week, so I expect the Sooners to drill the Tigers.
With two teams headed to BCS Bowls, and with Colorado failing to upset Nebraska, this league will fall two teams short.
1. BCS National Championship-Oklahoma 12-1 vs. Florida
2. Fiesta-Texas 11-1 vs. Ohio State
3. Cotton-Texas Tech 11-1 vs. Ole Miss
4. Gator-Nebraska 8-4 vs. Florida State
5. Holiday-Oklahoma State 9-3 vs. Oregon
6. Alamo-Missouri 9-4 vs. Northwestern
7. Insight-Kansas 6-6 vs. Minnesota
8. Independence-No Qualifying Team
9. Texas-No Qualifying team
C-USA
Tulsa and East Carolina are the two divisional champions, and I believe the Golden Hurricane will win the title game this week. Rice is the best team in this league as the season ends, but the Owls will not be at the top of the list for those remaining bowl-eligible teams. Expect to see Rice fall to the Texas Bowl.
Unless another bowl chooses them first, Houston may wind up in Ft. Worth playing Air Force in a rematch of a game played in the regular season. I think Rice would be a better opponent, but the Cougars are the better drawing team.
1. Liberty-Tulsa 11-2 vs. Kentucky
2. St. Petersburg-East Carolina 8-5 vs. South Florida
3. G M A C-Southern Miss. 6-6 vs. Central Michigan
4. Armed Forces-Houston 7-5 vs. Air Force
5. Texas-Rice 9-3 vs. Notre Dame
6. New Orleans-Memphis 6-6 vs. Troy
Independent
Navy is headed to the Eagle Bank Bowl regardless of their outcome with Army this week. We know for sure that Maryland will not be their opponent in a possible in-state rivalry game. The Terps have final exams that week, and they will not accept a bowl bid during exam week.
Notre Dame will still be invited to a bowl at 6-6. They will be the first 6-6 team invited as an at-large team. I believe they will be headed to Houston.
1. Texas (at-large)-Notre Dame 6-6 vs. Rice
2. Eagle Bank-NAVY 7-5 vs. Miami (Fla.)
M A C
Ball State should handle Buffalo this week. If they do, I expect the Motor City Bowl to make a deal with the WAC to release Boise State to come to Detroit in a battle of the unbeatens. It will thus become the top non-BCS bowl.
The MAC will benefit from the failure of other conferences not being able to fulfill their bowl quotas. Three more teams (Western Michigan, Central Michigan, and Buffalo) have seven wins, so there will be one extra bowl invitation for the MAC. I have Western Michigan playing in an at-large bowl, but there is no news leaks about where they might be headed. I have them headed west based on the fact that Boise State won’t be selected by the Poinsettia Bowl as they have that right.
1. Motor City-Ball State 13-0 vs. Boise State
2. International-Buffalo 8-5 vs. Connecticut
3. G M A C-Central Michigan 9-3 vs. Southern Miss.
4. Poinsettia (at-large)-Western Michigan 9-3 vs. T C U
Mountain West
Utah is officially a BCS bowl invitee. It appears that they are headed to the Big Easy to play in the Sugar Bowl.
BYU has been to the Las Vegas Bowl the last three years, and I believe the folks in sin city will invite the Cougars a fourth consecutive time. TCU is still a possibility, but in this time of economic turmoil, I’m guessing it will be a number’s game that comes up craps for the Frogs.
1. Sugar-Utah 12-0 vs. Alabama
2. Las Vegas-B Y U 10-2 vs. Arizona
3. Poinsettia-T C U 10-2 vs. Western Michigan
4. New Mexico-Colorado State 6-6 vs. Fresno State
5. Armed Forces-Air Force 8-4 vs. Houston
Pac-10
Oregon made the Rose Bowl officials happy when they defeated Oregon State. Now Southern Cal needs to defeat UCLA to return to Pasadena for another game.
Arizona State can still become bowl-eligible with a win at Arizona, but I think the Wildcats have a huge revenge motive that will end the season for the Sun Devils. Thus, I have the Pac-10 falling two spots shy of fulfilling its obligations.
1. Rose-Southern Cal 11-1 vs. Penn State
2. Holiday-Oregon 9-3 vs. Oklahoma State
3. Sun-Oregon State 8-4 vs. Rutgers
4. Las Vegas-Arizona 7-5 vs. B Y U
5. Emerald-California 8-4 vs. Wake Forest
6. Poinsettia-No qualifying team
7. Hawaii- No qualifying team
S E C
What happens if Florida beats Alabama in overtime or by one point in regulation? Might there be a rematch in a month for the National Championship? It’s not going to happen for two reasons. First, a loss of any kind will put Alabama behind both Oklahoma and Texas. Second, I believe Florida will win this week by double digits. No matter which team loses, it will be headed to New Orleans. A Florida-Utah game would be interesting because of Urban Meyer.
There is a rumor going around that the Capital One Bowl could take Ole Miss over Georgia. I think that rumor has merits, but I don’t expect the Rebels to end up in Orlando.
1. National Championship-Florida 12-1 vs. Oklahoma
2. Sugar-Alabama 12-1 vs. Utah
3. Capital One-Georgia 10-2 vs. Ohio State
4. Outback-South Carolina 7-5 vs. Michigan State
5. Cotton-Ole Miss 8-4 vs. Texas Tech
6. Chick-fil-a-L S U 7-5 vs. Georgia Tech
7. Music City-Vanderbilt 6-6 vs. North Carolina
8. Liberty-Kentucky 6-6 vs. Tulsa
9. Independence-No qualifying team
10. Papa John’s-No qualifying team
Sunbelt
Troy should beat Arkansas State this weekend to wrap up the SBC title. They will be the only seven-win team in the league, but it is likely that two six-win teams will receive at-large bids. The winner of the UL-Lafayette-Middle Tennessee game will likely wind up in Birmingham, while either Arkansas State or Florida Atlantic will take the Independence Bowl bid. I’m guessing ASU will be picked over FAU. Of course, if ASU beats Troy, they will head to New Orleans. Troy would then head to Birmingham, and ULL or MTSU will end up in Shreveport.
1. New Orleans-Troy 8-4 vs. Memphis
2. Independence (at-large) Arkansas State 6-6 vs. La. Tech
3. Papa John’s (at-large) Middle Tennessee 6-6 vs. Pittsburgh
W A C
The Boise State-Ball State mini-dream game is still full of potential pitfalls. The Humanitarian Bowl wants to host this game, but Ball State doesn’t want to play Boise State on the blue turf. Boise State may think Detroit is too close to Muncie, Indiana. The Independence Bowl has been mentioned as a possible site since it will have to find two at-large teams, but the Independence Bowl is supposed to take a Sunbelt team if they don’t have an SEC team. Louisiana Tech is a great bet to be the other at-large team in Shreveport. I believe the Motor City Bowl is the best option. That will allow the Humanitarian Bowl to take Nevada and cause no further bowl interruptions. If the big game ends up in Boise, then the ACC will have to be compensated. They have more than enough eligible teams to meet their obligations.
1. Motor City-Boise State 12-0 vs. Ball State
2. Humanitarian-Nevada 6-6 vs. Maryland
3. New Mexico-Fresno State 7-5 vs. Colorado State
4. Hawaii-Hawaii 7-6 vs. North Carolina State
5. Independence (at-large)-La. Tech 8-4 vs. Arkansas St.
NCAA Week 14: Oh What A Mess!!!
The conclusion of the 2008 FBS regular season begins this week and finishes next week. There are multiple problems with the postseason as of now, and I don’t believe these problems will all be resolved by Saturday, December 6.
The national championship will produce controversy no matter which two teams are picked for the game. Eight or more teams could conceivable have realistic arguments in favor of their being one of the final two. The system is set up for failure, especially this season. Except for 2005, this inept method of picking teams has “gotten it wrong” just about every season since its inception.
The non-BCS bowl situation couldn’t be more messed up today. Six bowl will more than likely need at-large entries as the conferences which with they have agreements will not provide enough bowl eligible teams. The poor Independence bowl will have to find two at-large teams unless a couple of miracle upsets occur this week.
NCAA Top 25 For 25-Nov-2008 | ||||
Rank | Team | PiRate | Won | Lost |
1 |
Florida |
140 |
10 |
1 |
2 |
Oklahoma |
133 |
10 |
1 |
3 |
Southern Cal |
132 |
9 |
1 |
4 |
Texas |
128 |
10 |
1 |
5 |
Ohio St. |
127 |
10 |
2 |
6 |
Penn St. |
125 |
11 |
1 |
7 |
Texas Tech |
122 |
10 |
1 |
8 |
Missouri |
121 |
9 |
2 |
9 |
Alabama |
120 |
11 |
0 |
10 |
T C U |
120 |
10 |
2 |
11 |
Georgia |
119 |
9 |
2 |
12 |
Utah |
118 |
12 |
0 |
13 |
Oregon State |
118 |
8 |
3 |
14 |
Ole Miss |
117 |
7 |
4 |
15 |
Iowa |
117 |
8 |
4 |
16 |
Boise State |
116 |
11 |
0 |
17 |
Oklahoma St. |
115 |
9 |
2 |
18 |
Oregon |
115 |
8 |
3 |
19 |
California |
114 |
7 |
4 |
20 |
Ball State |
113 |
11 |
0 |
21 |
Florida State |
113 |
8 |
3 |
22 |
Rutgers |
112 |
6 |
5 |
23 |
West Virginia |
112 |
7 |
3 |
24 |
Cincinnati |
111 |
9 |
2 |
25 |
South Carolina |
111 |
7 |
4 |
Note: Ratings rounded to nearest whole number even though I rank them to two decimal points |
PiRate Ratings By Conference
Atlantic Coast Conference | |||||
Atlantic Division | |||||
Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
Florida State |
5-3 |
8-3 |
113 |
70 |
43 |
Clemson |
4-4 |
6-5 |
110 |
66 |
44 |
Boston College |
4-3 |
8-3 |
108 |
65 |
43 |
N. Carolina State |
3-4 |
5-6 |
106 |
70 |
36 |
Wake Forest |
4-4 |
6-5 |
102 |
56 |
46 |
Maryland |
4-3 |
7-4 |
100 |
61 |
39 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Coastal Division |
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Virginia Tech |
4-3 |
7-4 |
106 |
65 |
41 |
Georgia Tech |
5-3 |
8-3 |
105 |
64 |
41 |
North Carolina |
3-4 |
7-4 |
105 |
66 |
39 |
Miami |
4-3 |
7-4 |
102 |
60 |
42 |
Virginia |
3-4 |
5-6 |
100 |
58 |
42 |
Duke |
1-6 |
4-7 |
93 |
60 |
33 |
Big East Conference | |||||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Rutgers |
4-2 |
6-5 |
112 |
67 |
45 |
West Virginia |
4-1 |
7-3 |
112 |
67 |
45 |
Cincinnati |
5-1 |
9-2 |
111 |
65 |
46 |
Pittsburgh |
3-2 |
7-3 |
108 |
65 |
43 |
Connecticut |
3-3 |
7-4 |
105 |
65 |
40 |
South Florida |
2-4 |
7-4 |
105 |
68 |
37 |
Louisville |
1-5 |
5-6 |
96 |
59 |
37 |
Syracuse |
1-5 |
3-8 |
89 |
56 |
33 |
Big Ten | |||||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Ohio State |
7-1 |
10-2 |
127 |
71 |
56 |
Penn State |
7-1 |
11-1 |
125 |
76 |
49 |
Iowa |
5-3 |
8-4 |
117 |
72 |
45 |
Wisconsin |
3-5 |
7-5 |
107 |
71 |
36 |
Northwestern |
5-3 |
9-3 |
105 |
64 |
41 |
Michigan State |
6-2 |
9-3 |
104 |
64 |
40 |
Purdue |
2-6 |
4-8 |
103 |
67 |
36 |
Illinois |
3-5 |
5-7 |
102 |
65 |
37 |
Michigan |
2-6 |
3-9 |
96 |
57 |
39 |
Minnesota |
3-5 |
7-5 |
92 |
58 |
34 |
Indiana |
1-7 |
3-9 |
79 |
54 |
25 |
Big 12 | |||||
North Division | |||||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Missouri |
5-2 |
9-2 |
121 |
75 |
46 |
Nebraska |
4-3 |
7-4 |
109 |
70 |
39 |
Kansas |
3-4 |
6-5 |
106 |
66 |
40 |
Colorado |
2-5 |
5-6 |
94 |
56 |
38 |
Kansas State |
2-6 |
5-7 |
92 |
67 |
25 |
Iowa State |
0-8 |
2-10 |
86 |
57 |
29 |
South Division |
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Oklahoma |
6-1 |
10-1 |
133 |
90 |
43 |
Texas |
6-1 |
10-1 |
128 |
82 |
46 |
Texas Tech |
6-1 |
10-1 |
122 |
85 |
37 |
Oklahoma State |
5-2 |
9-2 |
115 |
69 |
46 |
Baylor |
2-5 |
4-7 |
104 |
66 |
38 |
Texas A&M |
2-5 |
4-7 |
90 |
56 |
34 |
Conference USA | |||||
East Division | |||||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Southern Miss. |
3-4 |
5-6 |
97 |
64 |
33 |
East Carolina |
5-2 |
7-4 |
94 |
59 |
35 |
Central Florida |
3-4 |
4-7 |
92 |
50 |
42 |
Memphis |
3-4 |
5-6 |
89 |
59 |
30 |
Marshall |
3-4 |
4-7 |
87 |
56 |
31 |
U A B |
2-5 |
3-8 |
80 |
51 |
29 |
West Division |
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Tulsa |
6-1 |
9-2 |
106 |
73 |
33 |
Houston |
6-1 |
7-4 |
99 |
67 |
32 |
Rice |
6-1 |
8-3 |
95 |
64 |
31 |
U T E P |
4-3 |
5-6 |
91 |
61 |
30 |
S M U |
0-7 |
1-10 |
78 |
57 |
21 |
Tulane |
1-6 |
2-9 |
72 |
50 |
22 |
Independents | |||||
Team |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
|
Notre Dame |
6-5 |
98 |
58 |
40 |
|
Navy |
6-4 |
97 |
60 |
37 |
|
Army |
3-8 |
86 |
49 |
37 |
Mid American Conference | |||||
East Division | |||||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Buffalo |
5-2 |
7-4 |
99 |
66 |
33 |
Bowling Green |
3-4 |
5-6 |
98 |
66 |
32 |
Temple |
3-4 |
4-7 |
94 |
57 |
37 |
Akron |
3-4 |
5-6 |
91 |
62 |
29 |
Ohio U |
2-5 |
3-8 |
89 |
49 |
40 |
Kent State |
2-5 |
3-8 |
86 |
57 |
29 |
Miami (O) |
1-6 |
2-9 |
83 |
55 |
28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
West Division |
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Ball State |
7-0 |
11-0 |
113 |
74 |
39 |
Western Michigan |
6-1 |
9-2 |
101 |
64 |
37 |
Northern Illinois |
5-3 |
6-5 |
101 |
62 |
39 |
Central Michigan |
6-1 |
8-3 |
100 |
68 |
32 |
Toledo |
2-5 |
3-8 |
90 |
58 |
32 |
Eastern Michigan |
1-6 |
2-9 |
84 |
55 |
29 |
Mountain West Conference | |||||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
T C U |
7-1 |
10-2 |
120 |
68 |
52 |
Utah |
8-0 |
12-0 |
118 |
70 |
48 |
Brigham Young |
6-2 |
10-2 |
106 |
67 |
39 |
Air Force |
5-3 |
8-4 |
95 |
58 |
37 |
Colorado State |
4-4 |
6-6 |
93 |
60 |
33 |
New Mexico |
2-6 |
4-8 |
93 |
56 |
37 |
UNLV |
2-6 |
5-7 |
85 |
56 |
29 |
Wyoming |
1-7 |
4-8 |
85 |
51 |
34 |
San Diego State |
1-7 |
2-10 |
76 |
49 |
27 |
Pac-10 Conference | |||||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Southern Cal |
7-1 |
9-1 |
132 |
73 |
59 |
Oregon State |
7-1 |
8-3 |
118 |
75 |
43 |
Oregon |
6-2 |
8-3 |
115 |
73 |
42 |
California |
5-3 |
7-4 |
114 |
72 |
42 |
Arizona |
4-4 |
6-5 |
111 |
74 |
37 |
Stanford |
4-5 |
5-7 |
106 |
64 |
42 |
Arizona State |
3-4 |
4-6 |
105 |
64 |
41 |
U C L A |
3-4 |
4-6 |
100 |
57 |
43 |
Washington |
0-8 |
0-11 |
83 |
55 |
28 |
Washington State |
1-8 |
2-10 |
73 |
49 |
24 |
Southeastern Conference | |||||
East Division | |||||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Florida |
7-1 |
10-1 |
140 |
87 |
53 |
Georgia |
6-2 |
9-2 |
119 |
73 |
46 |
South Carolina |
4-4 |
7-4 |
111 |
65 |
46 |
Tennessee |
2-5 |
4-7 |
105 |
61 |
44 |
Kentucky |
2-5 |
6-5 |
104 |
63 |
41 |
Vanderbilt |
4-4 |
6-5 |
102 |
57 |
45 |
West Division |
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Alabama |
7-0 |
11-0 |
120 |
68 |
52 |
Ole Miss |
4-3 |
7-4 |
117 |
71 |
46 |
L S U |
3-4 |
7-4 |
107 |
68 |
39 |
Auburn |
2-5 |
5-6 |
106 |
58 |
48 |
Mississippi State |
2-5 |
4-7 |
102 |
57 |
45 |
Arkansas |
1-6 |
4-6 |
101 |
67 |
34 |
Sunbelt Conference | |||||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Troy |
5-1 |
7-4 |
104 |
68 |
36 |
Arkansas State |
3-2 |
5-5 |
93 |
61 |
32 |
Middle Tennessee |
3-3 |
5-6 |
92 |
58 |
34 |
Florida Atlantic |
3-3 |
5-6 |
92 |
61 |
31 |
La.-Monroe |
3-4 |
4-8 |
87 |
56 |
31 |
La.-Lafayette |
4-2 |
5-6 |
86 |
64 |
22 |
Fla. International |
3-3 |
4-6 |
84 |
55 |
29 |
* Western Ky. |
0-0 |
2-9 |
82 |
51 |
31 |
North Texas |
0-6 |
1-10 |
67 |
53 |
14 |
* Western Kentucky will become eligible in 2009
Their games will not count in the SBC Standings in 2008 |
Western Athletic Conference | |||||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
Boise State |
7-0 |
11-0 |
116 |
72 |
44 |
Nevada |
4-3 |
6-5 |
102 |
73 |
29 |
Louisiana Tech |
5-2 |
7-4 |
94 |
56 |
38 |
Hawaii |
5-3 |
6-5 |
92 |
55 |
37 |
Fresno State |
4-3 |
7-4 |
92 |
63 |
29 |
Utah State |
2-5 |
2-9 |
88 |
55 |
33 |
San Jose State |
4-4 |
6-6 |
85 |
53 |
32 |
New Mexico State |
1-6 |
3-8 |
79 |
51 |
28 |
Idaho |
1-7 |
2-10 |
73 |
57 |
16 |
This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings |
|||
Home Team in CAPS | (N) Denotes Neutral Site |
|
|
|
|
||
Tuesday, November 25 |
|
|
|
Favorite | Underdog |
Pred. Spread |
Approx. Score |
BALL STATE | Western Michigan |
15 |
38-23 |
NORTHERN ILLINOIS | Navy |
7 |
27-20 |
|
|
||
Thursday, November 27 |
|
|
|
Favorite | Underdog |
Pred. Spread |
Approx. Score |
TEXAS | Texas A&M |
41 |
48-7 |
|
|
||
Friday, November 28 |
|
|
|
Favorite | Underdog |
Pred. Spread |
Approx. Score |
West Virginia | PITTSBURGH |
1 |
21-20 |
OLE MISS | Mississippi State |
18 |
27-9 |
Ohio U | MIAMI (O) |
3 |
20-17 |
EAST CAROLINA | U t e p |
6 |
30-24 |
TEMPLE | Akron |
6 |
28-22 |
Central Michigan | EASTERN MICHIGAN |
13 |
37-24 |
BUFFALO | Kent State |
16 |
37-21 |
L s u | ARKANSAS |
3 |
31-28 |
NEBRASKA | Colorado |
18 |
35-17 |
Bowling Green | TOLEDO |
5 |
31-26 |
BOISE STATE | Fresno State |
27 |
44-17 |
ARIZONA STATE | U c l a |
8 |
21-13 |
|
|
||
Saturday, November 29 | |||
Favorite | Underdog |
Pred. Spread |
Approx. Score |
ALABAMA | Auburn |
17 |
20-3 |
TEXAS TECH | Baylor |
21 |
49-28 |
Florida | FLORIDA STATE |
24 |
42-18 |
Oklahoma | OKLAHOMA STATE |
15 |
42-27 |
GEORGIA | Georgia Tech |
17 |
34-17 |
North Carolina | DUKE |
9 |
31-22 |
CINCINNATI | Syracuse |
25 |
35-10 |
WAKE FOREST | Vanderbilt |
3 |
13-10 |
CLEMSON | South Carolina |
2 |
21-19 |
BOSTON COLLEGE | Maryland |
11 |
28-17 |
N.C. STATE | Miami-Fl |
7 |
28-21 |
VIRGINIA TECH | Virginia |
9 |
23-14 |
TENNESSEE | Kentucky |
4 |
20-16 |
Missouri (Kansas City) | Kansas |
15 |
35-20 |
MEMPHIS | Tulane |
20 |
38-18 |
Arkansas State | NORTH TEXAS |
23 |
44-21 |
Nevada | LA. TECH |
5 |
35-30 |
Houston | RICE |
1 |
35-34 |
UTAH STATE | New Mexico St. |
12 |
28-16 |
Southern Miss. | S M U |
16 |
41-25 |
Tulsa | MARSHALL |
16 |
40-24 |
CENTRAL FLORIDA | U a b |
15 |
21-6 |
FLA. ATLANTIC | Fla. International |
11 |
35-24 |
OREGON STATE | Oregon |
6 |
34-28 |
SOUTHERN CAL | Notre Dame |
35 |
35-0 |
HAWAII | Washington State |
23 |
33-10 |
This Week’s Games–Mean Ratings |
||
Home Team in CAPS | (N) Denotes Neutral Site |
|
Tuesday, November 25 |
|
|
Favorite | Underdog |
Pred. Score |
BALL STATE | Western Michigan |
31-20 |
Navy | NORTHERN ILLINOIS |
31-31 to OT |
|
||
Thursday, November 27 |
|
|
Favorite | Underdog |
Pred. Score |
TEXAS | Texas A&M |
49-14 |
|
||
Friday, November 28 |
|
|
Favorite | Underdog |
Pred. Score |
PITTSBURGH | West Virginia |
27-24 |
OLE MISS | Mississippi State |
28-10 |
Ohio U | MIAMI (O) |
28-26 |
EAST CAROLINA | U t e p |
38-30 |
TEMPLE | Akron |
31-29 |
Central Michigan | EASTERN MICHIGAN |
33-20 |
BUFFALO | Kent State |
30-14 |
L s u | ARKANSAS |
35-30 |
NEBRASKA | Colorado |
44-27 |
Bowling Green | TOLEDO |
30-27 |
BOISE STATE | Fresno State |
41-19 |
ARIZONA STATE | U c l a |
31-23 |
|
||
Saturday, November 29 | ||
Favorite | Underdog |
Pred. Score |
ALABAMA | Auburn |
30-7 |
TEXAS TECH | Baylor |
52-26 |
Florida | FLORIDA STATE |
35-21 |
Oklahoma | OKLAHOMA STATE |
42-35 |
GEORGIA | Georgia Tech |
37-28 |
North Carolina | DUKE |
30-24 |
CINCINNATI | Syracuse |
32-10 |
WAKE FOREST | Vanderbilt |
17-12 |
CLEMSON | South Carolina |
28-26 |
BOSTON COLLEGE | Maryland |
31-21 |
Miami-Fl | N.C. STATE |
31-28 |
VIRGINIA TECH | Virginia |
21-12 |
TENNESSEE | Kentucky |
17-16 |
Missouri (Kansas City) | Kansas |
42-28 |
MEMPHIS | Tulane |
37-24 |
Arkansas State | NORTH TEXAS |
38-21 |
Nevada | LA. TECH |
38-35 |
RICE | Houston |
35-34 |
UTAH STATE | New Mexico St. |
27-22 |
Southern Miss. | S M U |
34-21 |
Tulsa | MARSHALL |
40-28 |
CENTRAL FLORIDA | U a b |
24-14 |
FLA. ATLANTIC | Fla. International |
38-33 |
OREGON STATE | Oregon |
31-24 |
SOUTHERN CAL | Notre Dame |
34-7 |
HAWAII | Washington State |
42-23 |
Bowl Outlook by Conference
Another week of games have been played, and nothing was really determined bowl-wise. Instead of knowing where some of the teams are headed, the picture is actually more clouded than it was last week. A couple of teams were eliminated from the bowl picture, but we’re talking about UNLV and Illinois. As we enter the Thanksgiving holiday, we only know for sure that Navy is in the inaugural Eagle Bank Bowl. Penn State is all but assured of a spot in the Rose Bowl, but it isn’t official yet.
Teams in all CAPS have already accepted invitations to that bowl.
ACC
Another week, another couple of frontrunners are ripe for upset losses. Miami and Maryland controlled their own destinies last week, but both were blown out. Now Virginia Tech and Boston College have the easiest roads to the title game. If the Eagles beat Maryland in Chestnut Hill this week, they are headed to Atlanta. If Virginia Tech beats Virginia, the Hokies are joining the Eagles.
The overall mediocrity of this league actually could help the ACC get an extra team in the bowl discussion. If North Carolina State beats Miami or Virginia beats Virginia Tech, the league will have 10 bowl eligible teams. Should both the Wolfpack and Cavs win, then 11 of the 12 teams will be bowl eligible.
1. Orange Bowl-Boston College 10-3 vs. Cincinnati
2. Chick-fil-a-North Carolina 9-3 vs. South Carolina
3. Gator-Florida State 8-4 vs. Nebraska
4. Champs Sports-Virginia Tech 8-5 vs. Northwestern
5. Music City-Georgia Tech 8-4 vs. Vanderbilt
6. Meineke Car Care-Miami (Fla) 7-5 vs. West Virginia
7. Eagle Bank-Clemson 7-5 vs. NAVY
8. Emerald-Maryland 7-5 vs. Notre Dame
9. Humanitarian-Wake Forest 7-5 vs. Boise State
10. Texas (at-large)-N.C. State 6-6 vs. Southern Miss.
Big East
Cincinnati is a win away from securing a BCS Bowl bid, and it looks like they would be headed to Miami. Coach Brian Kelly will be very popular Sunday morning if the Bearcats win, and he could be the head coach at a larger school before December 15.
Once Cincinnati wraps up the Orange Bowl berth, the dominoes should begin to fall. I believe the bowls will possibly sacrifice won-loss record for distance. With the economy in shambles, fans may be reluctant to travel great distances and spend a lot of money. Thus, I am picking South Florida to stay at home for their bowl. I am going with West Virginia to stay close to home. I am sending Connecticut north of the border.
With Notre Dame losing to Syracuse, the Irish are no longer in the Gator Bowl picture, and I don’t think the Sun Bowl will be able to select them as the Big East representative because they will finish 6-6 and six Big East teams will win seven or more games.
I have Louisville out of the picture. The Cardinals have been a major disappointment for the second consecutive year. Coach Steve Kragthorpe’s seat is getting hot.
1. Orange-Cincinnati 11-2 vs. Boston College
2. Sun-Pittsburgh 8-4 vs. Arizona
3. St. Petersburg-South Florida 7-5 vs. East Carolina
4. Meineke Car Care-West Virginia 8-4 vs. Miami (Fla)
5. International-Connecticut 8-4 vs. Buffalo
6. Papa John’s-Rutgers 7-5 vs. Middle Tennessee State
Big Ten
Illinois was eliminated from bowl contention last week, but I now have Ohio State slated to miss out on an at-large BCS bowl bid. So, this league will have seven teams for seven bowls.
Even thought Minnesota fell mightily in November, I have the Gophers ahead of Wisconsin because it appears that the Badger fans do not plan on supporting their team en masse this year. In a poll in the Milwaukee paper, a plurality of fans voted their opinion that UW should not even go to a bowl this year.
1. Rose-Penn State 11-1 vs. Oregon State
2. Capital One-Ohio State 10-2 vs. Georgia
3. Outback-Michigan State 9-3 vs. L S U
4. Champs Sports-Northwestern 9-3 vs. Virginia Tech
5. Alamo-Iowa 8-4 vs. Oklahoma State
6. Insight-Minnesota 7-5 vs. Kansas
7. Motor City-Wisconsin 7-5 vs. Ball State
Big 12
Missouri is definitely in the Big 12 Championship Game next week. The other side of the league is still a three-team race. If Oklahoma wins at Oklahoma State, then the Sooners should jump ahead of Texas in the BCS standings, even if the Longhorns beat Texas A&M 56-0. If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, then Texas Tech will back in to the title game if they beat Baylor. I think Texas can only get into the Big 12 title game if Texas Tech loses to Baylor. However, the Longhorns still have a chance to make it to the National Championship Game if Missouri beats Oklahoma in the conference title game and Southern Cal doesn’t jump ahead of them.
Colorado still has an outside chance of becoming bowl-eligible. They have to win at Nebraska. I don’t give the Buffs much chance of doing that, and I believe Coach Dan Hawkins is riding down a slippery slope in the Rockies.
The Cornhuskers may cut in line in the bowl pecking order. The Gator Bowl will probably take them ahead of a 10-3 Missouri or 9-3 Oklahoma State team.
1. BCS National Championship-Oklahoma 12-1 vs. Florida
2. Fiesta-Texas 11-1 vs. Southern Cal
3. Cotton-Texas Tech 11-1 vs. Ole Miss
4. Gator-Nebraska 8-4 vs. Florida State
5. Holiday-Missouri 10-3 vs. California
6. Alamo-Oklahoma State 9-3 vs. Iowa
7. Insight-Kansas 6-6 vs. Minnesota
8. Independence-No Qualifying Team
9. Texas-No Qualifying team
C-USA
There is still unfinished business in this conference. East Carolina has won the East Division, but the West is still a three-team race. Tulsa has a tough road game at Marshall, while Houston plays across town at Rice. If Rice and Tulsa finished ties, Tulsa wins. If Tulsa loses to Marshall, the winner of the Rice-Houston game wins. All three will go to bowls.
UTEP and Memphis must win their final games to become bowl-eligible. Memphis has an easy game against lowly Tulane, but UTEP must play at East Carolina. Should the Tigers lose, Coach Tommy West could be in trouble.
1. Liberty-Tulsa 11-2 vs. Kentucky
2. St. Petersburg-East Carolina 8-5 vs. South Florida
3. G M A C-Rice 8-4 vs. Central Michigan
4. Armed Forces-Houston 8-4 vs. Air Force
5. Texas-Southern Miss. 6-6 vs. N.C. State
6. New Orleans-Memphis 6-6 vs. Troy
Independent
Navy is the only team that definitely knows what bowl it will be playing in this year. The Midshipmen have already accepted a bid to the first Eagle Bank Bowl.
Notre Dame will still be invited to a bowl after USC slaughters them to drop them to 6-6. They will be the first 6-6 team invited as an at-large team. Whether they accept the bid is another story, but I’m selecting them here.
1. Emerald (at-large)-Notre Dame 6-6 vs. Maryland
2. Eagle Bank-NAVY 7-5 vs. Clemson
M A C
Ball State has a big home game with Western Michigan Tuesday night. Then, they would have to beat Buffalo in the MAC Championship Game and hope Boise State, Alabama, and Southern Cal all lose just to have a minute chance at getting an at-large bid to a BCS bowl. It looks like the Motor City Bowl is the best they can hope for. I would love to see some arrangement made to pit a 13-0 Ball State team against a 12-0 Boise State team. A lot of deals would have to be made.
Central and Western Michigan should easily receive bowl bids. Buffalo is a virtually guaranteed a bowl as well thanks to them picking up their seventh win last week.
Northern Illinois will become the fifth bowl team if they defeat Navy. Even if they lose, they could still have a shot at 6-6, since their fans travel well.
1. Motor City-Ball State 13-0 vs. Wisconsin
2. International-Buffalo 8-5 vs. Connecticut
3. G M A C-Central Michigan 9-3 vs. Rice
4. Hawaii (at-large)-Western Michigan 9-3 vs. Hawaii
Mountain West
Utah is officially a BCS bowl invitee. It appears that they are headed to the Big Easy to play in the Sugar Bowl.
BYU has been to the Las Vegas Bowl the last three years, and I believe the folks in sin city will invite the Cougars a fourth consecutive time. TCU is still a possibility, but in this time of economic turmoil, I’m guessing it will be a number’s game that comes up craps for the Frogs.
1. Sugar-Utah 12-0 vs. Alabama
2. Las Vegas-B Y U 10-2 vs. Oregon
3. Poinsettia-T C U 10-2 vs. Boise State
4. New Mexico-Colorado State 6-6 vs. Fresno State
5. Armed Forces-Air Force 8-4 vs. Houston
Pac-10
Oregon State won at Arizona, and now the Beavers need to take care of business at home against Oregon. If they win, they head to the Rose Bowl for the first time in more than four decades! They would get a chance to redeem themselves against Penn State.
Southern Cal could still climb up to second in the BCS if Oklahoma and Texas both lose again this season.
Arizona State could still become bowl eligible by beating both UCLA and Arizona. It could happen, but for now I am picking Arizona to end that dream.
1. Rose-Oregon State 9-3 vs. Penn State
2. Fiesta (at-large) Southern Cal 11-1 vs. Texas
3. Holiday-California 8-4 vs. Missouri
4. Sun-Arizona 8-4 vs. Pittsburgh
5. Las Vegas-Oregon 8-4 vs. B Y U
6. Emerald-No qualifying team
6. Poinsettia-No qualifying team
7. Hawaii- No qualifying team
S E C
Florida continues to move farther and farther ahead of the pack in college football. I have the Gators at least a touchdown ahead of any other team.
Alabama is still number one in the official polls. What if the Crimson Tide destroys Auburn and loses to Florida in overtime on a missed two-point conversion? Might we see the same two teams play again for the national title? Could it happen? I think the Gators will take ‘Bama by more than two touchdowns to make it a moot point.
Arkansas was eliminated from the bowl talk last week, and I expect Auburn to go away this week. If Auburn fires Tommy Tuberville, the Tigers deserve to rot into the basement in the SEC West for years. Tuberville is a class act, and he knows how to coach. I don’t think there is a savior out there who can do any better.
Kentucky and Vanderbilt will probably both finish 6-6, and that presents a mismatch problem if Tulsa wins the C-USA title. The Golden Hurricane would be a prohibitive favorite over both teams. Might the Liberty Bowl decide to allow the Independence of Papa John’s Bowl to take one of these 6-6 and then go after an undefeated Ball State team as an at-large opponent? It’s something to consider, but I believe the Wildcats will travel to Memphis. If Rice wins the C-USA title, then Kentucky will definitely be the opponent, since Vandy has already played the Owls.
1. National Championship-Florida 12-1 vs. Oklahoma
2. Sugar-Alabama 12-1 vs. Utah
3. Capital One-Georgia 10-2 vs. Ohio State
4. Outback-L S U 8-4 vs. Michigan State
5. Cotton-Ole Miss 8-4 vs. Texas Tech
6. Chick-fil-a-South Carolina 7-5 vs. North Carolina
7. Music City-Vanderbilt 6-6 vs. Georgia Tech
8. Liberty-Kentucky 6-6 vs. Tulsa
9. Independence-No qualifying team
10. Papa John’s-No qualifying team
Sunbelt
Troy has all but wrapped up the New Orleans Bowl berth. It looks highly likely that no other SBC team will finish 7-5, but as many as three will finish 6-6. Because I see at least four and possibly five 6-6 teams being required to fill out the at-large spots, two at-large bids could go to this league.
The Sunbelt has side bets with three other bowls, and two of them will be needing to find alternative invitees. So, I am going with the two teams I believe will travel the best here.
1. New Orleans-Troy 8-4 vs. Memphis
2. Independence (at-large) Arkansas State 6-6 vs. La. Tech
3. Papa John’s (at-large) Middle Tennessee 6-6 vs. Rutgers
W A C
Boise State should take care of business against Fresno State this week and finish the regular season at 12-0. They won’t get a sniff at an at-large BCS bowl bid. Their only hope is if Oregon State loses to Oregon, Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State, Texas loses to Texas A&M, and Texas Tech loses to Baylor (or if Missouri wins the Big 12 title).
The WAC has a provisional agreement with the Poinsettia Bowl should the Pac-10 not have a team available. They won’t this year, and that could allow Boise State to go there. Economics may trump this theory as the Humanitarian Bowl will want the Broncos to stay home. For now, I am selecting Boise to head south and west to play a better opponent than they would face on the blue field.
San Jose State looks like the odd man out this year, unless the Poinsettia Bowl would prefer them to Boise State. Then, Nevada might be the odd man out. If the Wolf Pack take care of business this week at Louisiana Tech, then they will take a bid away from a 6-6 team.
1. Poinsettia (at-large) Boise State 12-0 vs. T C U
2. Humanitarian-Nevada 6-6 vs. Wake Forest
3. New Mexico-Fresno State 7-5 vs. Colorado State
4. Hawaii-Hawaii 7-6 vs. Western Michigan
5. Independence (at-large)-La. Tech 8-4 vs. Arkansas St.
NCAA Week 13: It’s Resolution Week, Part One
This week starts the beginning of the end of the regular season for college football. Many teams will be playing their final games of the year, and many teams will be either playing themselves into a bowl or being eliminated from a bowl. In addition, there are numerous big rivalry games.
The bowl situation couldn’t be more messed up today. I believe six bowls will have to find at-large entries as the conferences which with they have agreements will not provide enough bowl eligible teams. I believe the Independence bowl will have to find two at-large teams.
NCAA Top 25 For 18-Nov-2008 | ||||
Rank | Team | PiRate | Won | Lost |
1 | Florida | 139 | 9 | 1 |
2 | Southern Cal | 132 | 9 | 1 |
3 | Texas | 128 | 10 | 1 |
4 | Texas Tech | 127 | 10 | 0 |
5 | Oklahoma | 127 | 9 | 1 |
6 | Ohio St. | 125 | 9 | 2 |
7 | Penn St. | 123 | 10 | 1 |
8 | Missouri | 121 | 9 | 2 |
9 | Alabama | 120 | 11 | 0 |
10 | Georgia | 119 | 9 | 2 |
11 | Oregon State | 118 | 7 | 3 |
12 | T C U | 117 | 9 | 2 |
13 | Boise State | 116 | 10 | 0 |
14 | Utah | 116 | 11 | 0 |
15 | Oklahoma St. | 115 | 9 | 2 |
16 | Oregon | 115 | 8 | 3 |
17 | Ball State | 113 | 10 | 0 |
18 | Ole Miss | 113 | 6 | 4 |
19 | L S U | 112 | 7 | 3 |
20 | California | 112 | 6 | 4 |
21 | Rutgers | 112 | 5 | 5 |
22 | West Virginia | 112 | 6 | 3 |
23 | Cincinnati | 111 | 8 | 2 |
24 | Iowa | 111 | 7 | 4 |
25 | Arizona | 111 | 6 | 4 |
Note: Ratings rounded to nearest whole number | ||||
even though I rank them to two decimal points |
PiRate Ratings By Conference
Atlantic Coast Conference | |||||
Atlantic Division | |||||
Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
Clemson | 3-4 | 5-5 | 109 | 66 | 43 |
Boston College | 3-3 | 7-3 | 108 | 65 | 43 |
Florida State | 4-3 | 7-3 | 108 | 68 | 40 |
Maryland | 4-2 | 7-3 | 105 | 64 | 41 |
Wake Forest | 4-3 | 6-4 | 102 | 56 | 46 |
North Carolina State | 2-4 | 4-6 | 100 | 67 | 33 |
Coastal Division | |||||
Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
North Carolina | 3-3 | 7-3 | 109 | 68 | 41 |
Virginia Tech | 3-3 | 6-4 | 107 | 66 | 41 |
Miami | 4-2 | 7-3 | 105 | 61 | 44 |
Georgia Tech | 4-3 | 7-3 | 102 | 62 | 40 |
Virginia | 3-3 | 5-5 | 101 | 59 | 42 |
Duke | 1-5 | 4-6 | 92 | 60 | 32 |
Big East Conference | |||||
Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
Rutgers | 4-2 | 5-5 | 112 | 67 | 45 |
West Virginia | 3-1 | 6-3 | 112 | 67 | 45 |
Cincinnati | 4-1 | 8-2 | 111 | 65 | 46 |
Pittsburgh | 3-1 | 7-2 | 108 | 65 | 43 |
Connecticut | 3-2 | 7-3 | 105 | 65 | 40 |
South Florida | 1-4 | 6-4 | 105 | 68 | 37 |
Louisville | 1-4 | 5-5 | 96 | 59 | 37 |
Syracuse | 1-5 | 2-8 | 86 | 54 | 32 |
Big Ten | |||||
Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
Ohio State | 6-1 | 9-2 | 125 | 70 | 55 |
Penn State | 6-1 | 10-1 | 123 | 74 | 49 |
Iowa | 4-3 | 7-4 | 111 | 69 | 42 |
Wisconsin | 3-5 | 6-5 | 108 | 71 | 37 |
Illinois | 3-4 | 5-6 | 107 | 68 | 39 |
Michigan State | 6-1 | 9-2 | 106 | 64 | 42 |
Northwestern | 4-3 | 8-3 | 101 | 62 | 39 |
Minnesota | 3-4 | 7-4 | 99 | 63 | 36 |
Purdue | 1-6 | 3-8 | 98 | 63 | 35 |
Michigan | 2-5 | 3-8 | 98 | 58 | 40 |
Indiana | 1-6 | 3-8 | 85 | 57 | 28 |
Big 12 | |||||
North Division | |||||
Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
Missouri | 5-2 | 9-2 | 121 | 75 | 46 |
Nebraska | 4-3 | 7-4 | 109 | 70 | 39 |
Kansas | 3-4 | 6-5 | 106 | 66 | 40 |
Colorado | 2-5 | 5-6 | 94 | 56 | 38 |
Kansas State | 1-6 | 4-7 | 93 | 67 | 26 |
Iowa State | 0-7 | 2-9 | 85 | 57 | 28 |
South Division | |||||
Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
Texas | 6-1 | 10-1 | 128 | 82 | 46 |
Texas Tech | 6-0 | 10-0 | 127 | 86 | 41 |
Oklahoma | 5-1 | 9-1 | 127 | 86 | 41 |
Oklahoma State | 5-2 | 9-2 | 115 | 69 | 46 |
Baylor | 2-5 | 4-7 | 104 | 66 | 38 |
Texas A&M | 2-5 | 4-7 | 90 | 56 | 34 |
Conference USA | |||||
East Division | |||||
Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
Southern Miss. | 3-4 | 5-6 | 97 | 64 | 33 |
East Carolina | 4-2 | 6-4 | 95 | 60 | 35 |
Central Florida | 2-4 | 3-7 | 91 | 50 | 41 |
Memphis | 3-3 | 5-5 | 90 | 60 | 30 |
Marshall | 3-3 | 4-6 | 90 | 57 | 33 |
U A B | 2-4 | 3-7 | 79 | 51 | 28 |
West Division | |||||
Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
Tulsa | 5-1 | 8-2 | 102 | 71 | 31 |
Houston | 5-1 | 6-4 | 100 | 67 | 33 |
Rice | 5-1 | 7-3 | 91 | 62 | 29 |
U T E P | 4-2 | 5-5 | 90 | 60 | 30 |
S M U | 0-7 | 1-10 | 78 | 57 | 21 |
Tulane | 1-5 | 2-8 | 76 | 52 | 24 |
Independents | |||||
Team | Overall | Rating | Off | Def | |
Notre Dame | 6-4 | 103 | 61 | 42 | |
Navy | 6-4 | 97 | 60 | 37 | |
Army | 3-7 | 86 | 49 | 37 |
Mid American Conference | |||||
East Division | |||||
Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
Bowling Green | 3-3 | 5-5 | 99 | 66 | 33 |
Buffalo | 4-2 | 6-4 | 98 | 65 | 33 |
Temple | 2-4 | 3-7 | 95 | 56 | 39 |
Akron | 3-3 | 5-5 | 93 | 62 | 31 |
Kent State | 2-4 | 3-7 | 90 | 59 | 31 |
Ohio U | 1-5 | 2-8 | 87 | 48 | 39 |
Miami (O) | 1-5 | 2-8 | 87 | 57 | 30 |
West Division | |||||
Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
Ball State | 6-0 | 10-0 | 113 | 74 | 39 |
Western Michigan | 6-1 | 9-2 | 101 | 64 | 37 |
Central Michigan | 6-0 | 8-2 | 99 | 67 | 32 |
Northern Illinois | 4-3 | 5-5 | 97 | 60 | 37 |
Toledo | 1-5 | 2-8 | 87 | 57 | 30 |
Eastern Michigan | 1-5 | 2-8 | 83 | 52 | 31 |
Mountain West Conference | |||||
Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
T C U | 6-1 | 9-2 | 117 | 66 | 51 |
Utah | 7-0 | 11-0 | 116 | 69 | 47 |
Brigham Young | 6-1 | 10-1 | 108 | 68 | 40 |
Air Force | 5-2 | 8-3 | 98 | 60 | 38 |
New Mexico | 2-6 | 4-8 | 93 | 56 | 37 |
UNLV | 2-5 | 5-6 | 91 | 59 | 32 |
Colorado State | 3-4 | 5-6 | 91 | 59 | 32 |
Wyoming | 1-6 | 4-7 | 87 | 52 | 35 |
San Diego State | 0-7 | 1-10 | 70 | 46 | 24 |
Pac-10 Conference | |||||
Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
Southern Cal | 7-1 | 9-1 | 132 | 73 | 59 |
Oregon State | 6-1 | 7-3 | 118 | 75 | 43 |
Oregon | 6-2 | 8-3 | 115 | 73 | 42 |
California | 4-3 | 6-4 | 112 | 71 | 41 |
Arizona | 4-3 | 6-4 | 111 | 74 | 37 |
Stanford | 4-4 | 5-6 | 108 | 65 | 43 |
Arizona State | 3-4 | 4-6 | 105 | 64 | 41 |
U C L A | 3-4 | 4-6 | 100 | 57 | 43 |
Washington | 0-7 | 0-10 | 85 | 56 | 29 |
Washington State | 0-8 | 1-10 | 71 | 48 | 23 |
Southeastern Conference | |||||
East Division | |||||
Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
Florida | 7-1 | 9-1 | 139 | 86 | 53 |
Georgia | 6-2 | 9-2 | 119 | 73 | 46 |
South Carolina | 4-4 | 7-4 | 111 | 65 | 46 |
Vanderbilt | 4-3 | 6-4 | 106 | 59 | 47 |
Kentucky | 2-5 | 6-5 | 104 | 63 | 41 |
Tennessee | 1-5 | 3-7 | 101 | 59 | 42 |
West Division | |||||
Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
Alabama | 7-0 | 11-0 | 120 | 68 | 52 |
Ole Miss | 3-3 | 6-4 | 113 | 69 | 44 |
L S U | 3-3 | 7-3 | 112 | 71 | 41 |
Auburn | 2-5 | 5-6 | 106 | 58 | 48 |
Mississippi State | 1-5 | 3-7 | 102 | 57 | 45 |
Arkansas | 1-5 | 4-6 | 101 | 67 | 34 |
Sunbelt Conference | |||||
Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
Troy | 4-1 | 6-4 | 99 | 66 | 33 |
Florida Atlantic | 3-2 | 5-5 | 95 | 63 | 32 |
Louisiana-Lafayette | 4-1 | 5-5 | 91 | 66 | 25 |
Arkansas State | 2-2 | 4-5 | 89 | 59 | 30 |
Middle Tennessee | 2-3 | 4-6 | 89 | 56 | 33 |
Florida International | 3-2 | 4-5 | 86 | 56 | 30 |
Louisiana-Monroe | 2-4 | 3-8 | 85 | 55 | 30 |
* Western Kentucky | 0-0 | 2-9 | 82 | 51 | 31 |
North Texas | 0-5 | 1-9 | 70 | 54 | 16 |
* Western Kentucky will become eligible in 2009 | |||||
Their games will not count in the SBC Standings in 2008 |
Western Athletic Conference | |||||
Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
Boise State | 6-0 | 10-0 | 116 | 72 | 44 |
Nevada | 4-2 | 6-4 | 101 | 72 | 29 |
Louisiana Tech | 4-2 | 6-4 | 95 | 56 | 39 |
Hawaii | 4-3 | 5-5 | 90 | 54 | 36 |
Fresno State | 3-3 | 6-4 | 90 | 62 | 28 |
Utah State | 2-5 | 2-9 | 88 | 55 | 33 |
San Jose State | 4-3 | 6-5 | 87 | 54 | 33 |
New Mexico State | 1-5 | 3-7 | 78 | 50 | 28 |
Idaho | 1-6 | 2-9 | 75 | 58 | 17 |
This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings | |||
Home Team in CAPS | (N) Denotes Neutral Site | ||
Tuesday, November 18 | |||
Favorite | Underdog | Pred. Spread | Approx. Score |
Northern Illinois | KENT STATE | 4 | 28-24 |
Wednesday, November 19 | |||
Favorite | Underdog | Pred. Spread | Approx. Score |
Ball State | CENTRAL MICHIGAN | 11 | 41-28 |
Thursday, November 20 | |||
Favorite | Underdog | Pred. Spread | Approx. Score |
Miami-Fl | GEORGIA TECH | 0 | 21-21 to ot |
Friday, November 21 | |||
Favorite | Underdog | Pred. Spread | Approx. Score |
BOWLING GREEN | Buffalo | 4 | 35-31 |
TOLEDO | Miami-OH | 3 | 27-24 |
SAN JOSE STATE | Fresno State | 0 | 28-28 to ot |
Saturday, November 15 | |||
Favorite | Underdog | Pred. Spread | Approx. Score |
OHIO STATE | Michigan | 30 | 33-3 |
NORTH CAROLINA | North Carolina St. | 12 | 35-23 |
West Virginia | LOUISVILLE | 13 | 27-14 |
RUTGERS | Army | 29 | 32-3 |
Clemson | VIRGINIA | 5 | 22-17 |
PURDUE | Indiana | 16 | 35-19 |
VANDERBILT | Tennessee | 8 | 17-9 |
TEMPLE | Eastern Michigan | 15 | 27-12 |
MEMPHIS | Central Florida | 2 | 21-19 |
Colorado State | WYOMING | 1 | 21-20 |
NOTRE DAME | Syracuse | 20 | 30-10 |
MISSISSIPPI STATE | Arkansas | 4 | 24-20 |
TULSA | Tulane | 29 | 49-20 |
Washington | WASHINGTON STATE | 11 | 31-20 |
Florida Atlantic | ARKANSAS STATE | 3 | 31-28 |
PENN STATE | Michigan State | 20 | 34-14 |
T C U | Air Force | 22 | 28-6 |
L S U | Ole Miss | 2 | 28-26 |
Boston College | WAKE FOREST | 3 | 17-14 |
CALIFORNIA | Stanford | 7 | 28-21 |
Illinois | NORTHWESTERN | 3 | 27-24 |
Akron | OHIO U | 3 | 21-18 |
RICE | Marshall | 4 | 31-27 |
HOUSTON | U t e p | 13 | 37-24 |
MIDDLE TENNESSEE | North Texas | 22 | 42-20 |
KANSAS STATE | Iowa State | 11 | 42-31 |
Louisiana Tech | NEW MEXICO STATE | 11 | 28-17 |
Boise State | NEVADA | 11 | 42-31 |
VIRGINIA TECH | Duke | 18 | 35-17 |
UTAH | B y u | 11 | 31-20 |
CINCINNATI | Pittsburgh | 6 | 23-17 |
East Carolina | U A B | 13 | 30-17 |
Oregon State | ARIZONA | 4 | 35-31 |
Iowa | MINNESOTA | 9 | 30-21 |
FLORIDA INT’L | La-Monroe | 4 | 28-24 |
TROY | La-Lafayette | 11 | 42-31 |
MARYLAND | Florida State | 0 | 24-24 to ot |
OKLAHOMA | Texas Tech | 3 | 45-42 |
U n l v | SAN DIEGO STATE | 18 | 32-14 |
HAWAII | Idaho | 18 | 38-20 |
Sunday, November 23 | |||
Favorite | Underdog | Pred. Spread | Approx. Score |
SOUTH FLORIDA | Connecticut | 3 | 27-24 |
This Week’s Games–Mean Ratings | ||
Home Team in CAPS | (N) Denotes Neutral Site | |
Tuesday, November 18 | ||
Favorite | Underdog | Predicted Score |
Northern Illinois | KENT STATE | 28-23 |
Wednesday, November 19 | ||
Favorite | Underdog | Predicted Score |
Ball State | CENTRAL MICHIGAN | 30-24 |
Thursday, November 20 | ||
Favorite | Underdog | Predicted Score |
GEORGIA TECH | Miami-Fl | 19-17 |
Friday, November 21 | ||
Favorite | Underdog | Predicted Score |
Bowling Green | BUFFALO | 28-26 |
TOLEDO | Miami-OH | 27-21 |
SAN JOSE STATE | Fresno State | 28-28 to ot |
Saturday, November 15 | ||
Favorite | Underdog | Predicted Score |
OHIO STATE | Michigan | 31-7 |
NORTH CAROLINA | North Carolina St. | 34-17 |
West Virginia | LOUISVILLE | 27-21 |
RUTGERS | Army | 35-16 |
VIRGINIA | Clemson | 21-21 to ot |
PURDUE | Indiana | 34-24 |
VANDERBILT | Tennessee | 20-10 |
TEMPLE | Eastern Michigan | 28-16 |
MEMPHIS | Central Florida | 34-28 |
Colorado State | WYOMING | 20-17 |
NOTRE DAME | Syracuse | 35-16 |
Arkansas | MISSISSIPPI STATE | 20-17 |
TULSA | Tulane | 47-21 |
Washington | WASHINGTON STATE | 35-34 |
ARKANSAS STATE | Florida Atlantic | 30-28 |
PENN STATE | Michigan State | 28-13 |
T C U | Air Force | 27-12 |
L S U | Ole Miss | 34-28 |
WAKE FOREST | Boston College | 24-24 to ot |
CALIFORNIA | Stanford | 35-24 |
NORTHWESTERN | Illinois | 28-23 |
Akron | OHIO U | 34-28 |
RICE | Marshall | 42-31 |
HOUSTON | U t e p | 45-34 |
MIDDLE TENNESSEE | North Texas | 42-24 |
KANSAS STATE | Iowa State | 40-28 |
Louisiana Tech | NEW MEXICO STATE | 36-30 |
Boise State | NEVADA | 28-17 |
VIRGINIA TECH | Duke | 24-12 |
UTAH | B y u | 30-21 |
CINCINNATI | Pittsburgh | 28-24 |
East Carolina | U A B | 34-24 |
Oregon State | ARIZONA | 35-34 |
Iowa | MINNESOTA | 27-24 |
FLORIDA INT’L | La-Monroe | 34-24 |
TROY | La-Lafayette | 31-23 |
MARYLAND | Florida State | 24-23 |
OKLAHOMA | Texas Tech | 41-38 |
U n l v | SAN DIEGO STATE | 27-14 |
HAWAII | Idaho | 42-21 |
Sunday, November 23 | ||
Favorite | Underdog | Predicted Score |
Connecticut | SOUTH FLORIDA | 20-19 |
Bowl Outlook by Conference
This week may be the most decisive week in the season in deciding which teams will go to bowls and which teams will stay home. Every conference has at least one key game, and most have multiple key games.
Due to the mediocrity of the ACC and Big East this year, these two leagues may benefit from having a bunch of 6-6 & 7-5 teams. They may take as many as three of the at-large bowl bids, especially if the Sunbelt fails to produce a second seven-win team.
Teams in all CAPS have already accepted invitations to that bowl.
ACC
Both divisions are still very much up for grabs. In the Atlantic Division, Maryland leads today, but Boston College, Wake Forest, and Florida State can still win the division. The Terps can eliminate the Seminoles with a win this week in College Park, but they must still play at BC. Wake Forest hosts BC this week, and a win over the Eagles could give them a piece of the title. However, Maryland holds a tiebreaker edge over Wake if they finish in a two-way tie.
In the Coastal Division, Miami has the lead, but the Hurricanes finish with two tough road games against Georgia Tech and a much-improved North Carolina State. Miami must finish ahead of North Carolina, for the Tar Heels hold the tie-breaker edge. Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, and even Virginia still could win the title, but there are too many possibilities to mention.
Virginia plays Clemson this week, and the winner will be bowl eligible. The loser could still get in with a win in their season finale.
1. Orange Bowl-Miami 10-3 vs. Cincinnati
2. Chick-fil-a-North Carolina 9-3 vs. Kentucky
3. Gator-Virginia Tech 8-4 vs. Missouri
4. Champs Sports-Maryland 8-5 vs. Minnesota
5. Music City-Boston College 8-4 vs. Ole Miss
6. Meineke Car Care-Wake Forest 7-5 vs. Connecticut
7. Eagle Bank-Georgia Tech 7-5 vs. NAVY
8. Emerald-Florida State 7-5 vs. Oregon State
9. Humanitarian-Clemson 6-6 vs. Boise State
10. Texas (at-large)-Virginia 6-6 vs. Memphis
Big East
Cincinnati held onto the lead by winning at Louisville. The Bearcats face Pittsburgh this week, and the winner will be in first place. West Virginia plays at Louisville, and the Mountaineers can move into a first place tie if they win and Pitt beats Cincinnati. Rutgers and Connecticut still have outside chances to win the league.
Louisville and Rutgers still need one win to gain bowl eligibility. In the other part of the equation, Notre Dame can steal either a Gator or Sun Bowl berth that would go to this conference should the Irish get to seven wins. They are 6-4 with a home game against lowly Syracuse this week. The Orangemen just fired Coach Greg Robinson, so they may be motivated to play a big game. Notre Dame’s other game is against Southern Cal. I think the Irish will finish 7-5, and the Sun Bowl will take them.
1. Orange-Cincinnati 10-3 vs. Miami-Fl
2. Sun-Notre Dame 7-5 vs. Arizona
3. St. Petersburg-Pittsburgh 8-4 vs. East Carolina
4. Meineke Car Care-Connecticut 8-4 vs. Wake Forest
5. International-West Virginia 7-5 vs. Central Michigan
6. Papa John’s-South Florida 7-5 vs. Buffalo
7. Motor City (at-large)-Rutgers 7-5 vs. Ball State
8. Independence (at-large)-Louisville 6-6 vs. Bowling Green
Big Ten
Penn State is in the Rose Bowl if they defeat Michigan State. If the Spartans win, then Ohio State is in with a win over Michigan. If both Michigan teams win, then Michigan State is in the Rose Bowl. I’m going with the Nittany Lions to win and close the other loopholes.
Ohio State will more than likely secure an at-large BCS bowl with a win over Michigan. At 10-2, they would trump a second undefeated team from a non-BCS conference. Money is all that matters in these bowls, and the Fiesta or Sugar Bowl would take the Buckeyes before considering a 12-0 Boise State or a 13-0 Ball State.
Illinois is still one win shy of gaining a bowl bid, and they must beat Northwestern this week. If the Wildcats win, as I believe will happen, then the Motor City Bowl will need to search for an at-large team.
I believe an excellent opportunity will present itself should Illinois lose and Ball State and Boise State both run the table. The Motor City Bowl could strike a deal with the Humanitarian Bowl so that Boise State could be freed up to play Ball State in a battle of the unbeatens.
1. Rose-Penn State 11-1 vs. Southern Cal
2. Fiesta-Ohio State 10-2 vs. Oklahoma
3. Capital One-Michigan State 9-3 vs. Georgia
4. Outback-Northwestern 9-3 vs. South Carolina
5. Champs Sports-Minnesota 8-4 vs. Maryland
6. Alamo-Iowa 7-5 vs. Nebraska
7. Insight-Wisconsin 7-5 vs. Kansas
8. Motor City-No Team Available
Big 12
This is where all the big action takes place. Texas Tech ventures to Norman to take on Oklahoma this week, and I’m going with OU to win. If the Sooners then win at Oklahoma State the following week, then the Big 12 South will end in a three-way tie between Tech, OU, and Texas (assuming Texas beats A&M). The tiebreaker for the Big 12 uses highest BCS ranking, and Texas is currently ahead of Oklahoma. Would OU jump UT if they beat Tech and Oklahoma State? I think it’s possible, but not probable. So, in a three-way tie, I’m guessing Texas would be the lucky team.
In the North, Missouri has already secured a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game. The Tigers have already played Texas, and the Longhorns whipped them. A rematch would be much closer in my opinion, and the Tigers would have close to a 50-50 chance of winning this time around. Should the eventual South Division champion lose to Missouri, then it will give Southern Cal a chance to move up to the BCS Championship game. A USC-Florida game would be the best possible title fight.
With Kansas State losing last week, this league is now guaranteed to come up short in its bowl obligations. In fact, it will be two teams short. That’s too bad for the Independence Bowl, because I believe it will have to search for two at-large teams.
1. BCS National Championship-Texas 12-1 vs. Florida
2. Fiesta-Oklahoma 11-1 vs. Ohio State
3. Cotton-Texas Tech 11-1 vs. LSU
4. Gator-Missouri 10-3 vs. Virginia Tech
5. Holiday-Oklahoma State 9-3 vs. California
6. Alamo-Nebraska 7-5 vs. Iowa
7. Insight-Kansas 6-6 vs. Wisconsin
8. Independence-No Qualifying Team
9. Texas-No Qualifying team
C-USA
As I expected last week, Houston beat Tulsa to forge a three-way tie at the top of the West Division. Rice is the third of the trio, and the Owls still host Houston. Tulsa still has a tough road game at Marshall. So, any one of these three could end up in the C-USA Championship Game.
In the East, East Carolina is going to limp home with the title, but the Pirates are playing a good 10 to 13 points weaker in November than they did in September. The only way Memphis or Marshall could supplant ECU is if the Pirates lose at UAB and at home to Marshall in the final game. Look for ECU to beat UAB and clinch the division this week.
The good news for this conference is there will be enough bowl eligible teams to fill the six bowl allotments, and if UTEP can win one more game, there could be an extra bowl eligible team. The Miners have a lot of digging to do, as they close at Houston and at ECU. Southern Mississippi will become bowl eligible when they beat SMU in two weeks.
1. Liberty-Houston 9-4 vs. Vanderbilt
2. St. Petersburg-East Carolina 8-5 vs. Pittsburgh
3. G M A C-Rice 8-4 vs. Western Michigan
4. Armed Forces-Tulsa 10-2 vs. U N L V
5. Texas-Memphis 7-5 vs. Virginia
6. New Orleans-Southern Miss. 6-6 vs. Troy
Independent
Navy is the only team that definitely knows what bowl it will be playing in this year. The Midshipmen have already accepted a bid to the first Eagle Bank Bowl. If Georgia Tech is the ACC representative, it will pit Paul Johnson against his former team in a triple option challenge.
Notre Dame will earn a bowl bid with a win over Syracuse this week. The Gator Bowl could take them in lieu of a really good Big 12 team, but the Sun Bowl is a more likely destination.
1. Sun-Notre Dame 7-5 vs. Arizona
2. Eagle Bank-NAVY 7-5 vs. Georgia Tech
M A C
Other than the Oklahoma-Texas Tech game this week, the next most important match could be the one in Mt. Pleasant, Michigan, Wednesday night. Central Michigan hosts Ball State, and this game should be must-watch TV. If Ball State wins this road game, then the Cardinals will be in the cat-bird seat at undefeated stadium. They still would have to beat a tough Western Michigan team in Muncie plus the Eastern champion in the MAC title game, but CMU is the real tough assignment. Central Michigan and Western Michigan have earned bowl bids, and they will go somewhere.
In the East, Bowling Green hosts Buffalo Friday night, and the winner of that game is the division champ. The loser should still finish with seven wins, and that will be enough to get them an at-large invitation to another bowl.
Northern Illinois may have played themselves out of bowl competition. The Huskies are 5-5 and must beat both Kent State and Navy to get to a bowl. I think they will fall one game short.
1. Motor City-Ball State 13-0 vs. Rutgers
2. International-Central Michigan 9-3 vs. West Virginia
3. G M A C-Western Michigan 9-3 vs. Rice
4. Papa John’s (at-large)-Buffalo 7-5 vs. South Florida
5. Independence (at-large)-Bowling Green 7-6 vs. Louisville
Mountain West
If Utah beats BYU this week, then the Utes are going to the Sugar Bowl. The Sugar Bowl would get the last pick of available BCS teams, and Utah will qualify with a win over the Cougars. Should BYU upset their in-state rival, then Utah will drop out of the BCS picture and open up a spot for Boise State or possibly Ball State should the Broncos also lose.
UNLV and Colorado State both need one more win to gain bowl eligibility. If Utah wins, then there will be room for both the Rebels and the Rams in the bowl picture. UNLV must defeat San Diego State, and this appears to be almost a certainty. CSU plays at Wyoming in a big rivalry game, and their task is much more difficult.
1. Sugar-Utah 12-0 vs. Alabama
2. Las Vegas-TCU 10-2 vs. Oregon
3. Poinsettia-BYU 10-2 vs. San Jose State
4. New Mexico-Air Force 8-4 vs. Louisiana Tech
5. Armed Forces-UNLV 6-6 vs. Tulsa
6. Hawaii (at-large)-Colorado State 6-6 vs. Hawaii
Pac-10
All eyes are in Tucson this week. Should Oregon State win on the road at Arizona, the Beavers are a home win over Oregon away from being the Pac-10 Champions and Rose Bowl representative. If Arizona wins or Oregon upsets the Beavers in the season-ender, then Southern Cal will win the Pac-10.
Stanford, UCLA and Arizona State are still mathematically alive in the bowl picture. UCLA would have to win at Arizona State and then upset USC. It won’t happen. Arizona State would have to beat UCLA and Arizona; it could happen, but chances are they won’t win both games. Stanford must defeat Cal this week, but the Bears have about a 60-65% chance of winning. Thus, the Pac-10 could miss out on their allotments by two teams.
1. Rose-Southern Cal 11-1 vs. Penn State
2. Holiday-California 8-4 vs. Oklahoma State
3. Sun-Arizona 8-4 vs. Notre Dame
4. Las Vegas-Oregon 8-4 vs. TCU
5. Emerald-Oregon State 8-4 vs. Florida State
6. Poinsettia-No qualifying team
7. Hawaii- No qualifying team
S E C
This conference has the definite top team in the land, and it isn’t number one Alabama. Florida may be as dominant today as Nebraska was in 1995 and 1997. The Gators could score 100 points this week against Citadel if Urban Meyer allowed them to do so. They will pummel Florida State the following week, and then they should handle Alabama by more than 10 points in the SEC Championship Game. If they lose another game this year it will be a bigger story than the Presidential election!
Alabama will clinch a BCS bowl game with a win over hapless Auburn next week. That game will also eliminate the Tigers and could conceivably cost Tommy Turbeville his job (which would be ridiculous).
Vanderbilt clinched a bowl with their win over Kentucky in Lexington Saturday. The Commodores now have two very winnable games remaining against Tennessee and Wake Forest. Should they finish 8-4, they will deserve the Outback Bowl bid, but I’m guessing they would get snubbed if South Carolina beats Clemson in their final game. However, a Vandy-Northwestern game would stir a lot of interest with the similarities between the two academic institutes of much higher learning.
Ole Miss also became bowl eligible Saturday, and the Rebels could move up to the Cotton Bowl if they could beat a battered LSU team in the Tiger’s Den this week.
Arkansas still has a remote shot at getting to a bowl. The Razorbacks would have to win at Mississippi State and against LSU the following week. For now, I’m calling for them to lose one of those games, so the SEC will fall two teams short in its obligations.
1. National Championship-Florida 12-1 vs. Texas
2. Sugar-Alabama 12-1 vs. Utah
3. Capital One-Georgia 10-2 vs. Michigan State
4. Outback-South Carolina 7-5 vs. Northwestern
5. Cotton-L S U 9-3 vs. Texas Tech
6. Chick-fil-a-Kentucky 7-5 vs. North Carolina
7. Music City-Ole Miss 7-5 vs. Miami
8. Liberty-Vanderbilt 8-4 vs. Houston
9. Independence-No qualifying team
10. Papa John’s-No qualifying team
Sunbelt
The New Orleans Bowl should be decided this week when Troy hosts Louisiana-Lafayette. If ULL wins and then loses at home to Middle Tennessee in two weeks, Florida Atlantic could claim the title with wins at Arkansas State and against Florida International. Both ASU and FIU could get into the championship picture if Troy, ULL, and FAU all lose. For now, let’s just go with Troy to beat ULL and end all the commotion.
If Troy wins this week, there is a good chance that the other teams will beat each other up and leave three teams at 6-6. If a second team does get to seven wins, then they will be assured of an at-large bid to either the Papa John’s or Independence Bowl.
1. New Orleans-Troy 8-4 vs. Southern Miss.
W A C
I have a sneaky suspicion that Boise State could find itself in a heap of trouble this week. The Broncos travel to Reno to take on Nevada. The Wolf Pack took Boise to four overtimes last year at the blue field before losing 69-67. I think Nevada could be waiting to ambush the undefeated Broncos. Boise will be lucky to escape with a win of any type.
Louisiana Tech has emerged as the second best team in the WAC. Second year coach Derek Dooley is the son of former Georgia great Vince Dooley, and he could be on the verge of seeing his name on the rolodexes of several athletics directors at BCS schools. If the Bulldogs win at New Mexico State this week, they will lock up a bowl bid.
Fresno State and San Jose State are both on the skids. The two play Friday night at Spartan Stadium, and the winner will be virtually assured of grabbing a bowl. The loser won’t be eliminated, but their road will be quite rough.
Hawaii is 5-5 with three games to go. They should beat Idaho this week, and Washington State the following week to earn a bid to the Hawaii Bowl.
1. Humanitarian-Boise State 12-0 vs. Clemson
(Boise State could swap with Rutgers and face a 13-0 Ball State team if a deal could be made).
2. New Mexico-Louisiana Tech 8-4 vs. Air Force
3. Hawaii-Hawaii 7-6 vs. Colorado State
4. Poinsettia (at-large)-San Jose State 7-5 vs. B Y U
NCAA Week 12: BCS Could Be On Verge Of Getting Quite Muddled
Bye Bye Penn State. Alabama just barely survived in the Bayou. Florida and Southern Cal showed they are the two best teams in the nation, but it’s going to take a few more losses at the top before that match-up has any chance of ever occurring.
Last week’s games really threw a monkey wrench into the lower bowls. There is a good chance now that at least six bowls will have to look for at-large teams because the conferences that have agreements with these bowls will not have enough bowl eligible teams. Read below in my bowl section to see the ensuing problems.
The PiRate Top 25 is different from the polls. I do not rank the teams based on what they have done to date. These teams are rated on how I think they will perform in the future (predictive ratings).
NCAA Top 25 For 11-Nov-2008 | ||||
Rank | Team | PiRate | Won | Lost |
1 | Florida | 135 | 8 | 1 |
2 | Southern Cal | 132 | 8 | 1 |
3 | Texas Tech | 127 | 10 | 0 |
4 | Oklahoma | 127 | 9 | 1 |
5 | Texas | 126 | 9 | 1 |
6 | Ohio St. | 126 | 8 | 2 |
7 | Penn St. | 124 | 9 | 1 |
8 | Missouri | 121 | 8 | 2 |
9 | Alabama | 120 | 10 | 0 |
10 | Georgia | 120 | 8 | 2 |
11 | Oklahoma St. | 117 | 8 | 2 |
12 | T C U | 117 | 9 | 2 |
13 | Boise State | 116 | 9 | 0 |
14 | Oregon State | 116 | 6 | 3 |
15 | South Carolina | 115 | 7 | 3 |
16 | Utah | 114 | 10 | 0 |
17 | Ball State | 114 | 9 | 0 |
18 | Oregon | 114 | 7 | 3 |
19 | California | 114 | 6 | 3 |
20 | L S U | 113 | 6 | 3 |
21 | Iowa | 112 | 6 | 4 |
22 | Arizona | 112 | 6 | 3 |
23 | West Virginia | 112 | 6 | 3 |
24 | Cincinnati | 111 | 7 | 2 |
25 | Florida State | 111 | 7 | 2 |
Note: Ratings rounded to nearest whole number | ||||
even though I rank them to two decimal points |
PiRate Ratings By Conference
Atlantic Coast Conference | |||||
Atlantic Division | |||||
Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
Florida State | 4-2 | 7-2 | 111 | 70 | 41 |
Clemson | 2-4 | 4-5 | 107 | 65 | 42 |
Boston College | 2-3 | 6-3 | 105 | 64 | 41 |
Maryland | 3-2 | 6-3 | 104 | 64 | 40 |
Wake Forest | 4-2 | 6-3 | 103 | 56 | 47 |
North Carolina State | 1-4 | 3-6 | 98 | 66 | 32 |
Coastal Division | |||||
Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
North Carolina | 3-2 | 7-2 | 110 | 69 | 41 |
Virginia Tech | 3-2 | 6-3 | 108 | 67 | 41 |
Miami | 3-2 | 6-3 | 104 | 61 | 43 |
Georgia Tech | 4-3 | 7-3 | 102 | 62 | 40 |
Virginia | 3-3 | 5-5 | 101 | 59 | 42 |
Duke | 1-4 | 4-5 | 94 | 61 | 33 |
Big East Conference | |||||
Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
West Virginia | 3-1 | 6-3 | 112 | 67 | 45 |
Cincinnati | 3-1 | 7-2 | 111 | 65 | 46 |
South Florida | 1-3 | 6-3 | 109 | 69 | 40 |
Rutgers | 3-2 | 4-5 | 108 | 65 | 43 |
Pittsburgh | 3-1 | 7-2 | 108 | 65 | 43 |
Connecticut | 2-2 | 6-3 | 103 | 64 | 39 |
Louisville | 1-3 | 5-4 | 96 | 59 | 37 |
Syracuse | 1-4 | 2-7 | 88 | 55 | 33 |
Big Ten | |||||
Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
Ohio State | 5-1 | 8-2 | 126 | 70 | 56 |
Penn State | 5-1 | 9-1 | 124 | 75 | 49 |
Iowa | 3-3 | 6-4 | 112 | 70 | 42 |
Wisconsin | 2-5 | 5-5 | 110 | 71 | 39 |
Michigan State | 6-1 | 9-2 | 106 | 64 | 42 |
Illinois | 3-3 | 5-5 | 106 | 67 | 39 |
Michigan | 2-4 | 3-7 | 100 | 60 | 40 |
Northwestern | 3-3 | 7-3 | 99 | 62 | 37 |
Minnesota | 3-3 | 7-3 | 97 | 61 | 36 |
Purdue | 1-5 | 3-7 | 97 | 63 | 34 |
Indiana | 1-5 | 3-7 | 85 | 57 | 28 |
Big 12 | |||||
North Division | |||||
Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
Missouri | 4-2 | 8-2 | 121 | 75 | 46 |
Kansas | 3-3 | 6-4 | 108 | 67 | 41 |
Nebraska | 3-3 | 6-4 | 106 | 68 | 38 |
Kansas State | 1-5 | 4-6 | 97 | 68 | 29 |
Colorado | 2-4 | 5-5 | 93 | 56 | 37 |
Iowa State | 0-6 | 2-8 | 85 | 57 | 28 |
South Division | |||||
Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
Texas Tech | 6-0 | 10-0 | 127 | 86 | 41 |
Oklahoma | 5-1 | 9-1 | 127 | 86 | 41 |
Texas | 5-1 | 9-1 | 126 | 81 | 45 |
Oklahoma State | 4-2 | 8-2 | 117 | 71 | 46 |
Baylor | 1-5 | 3-7 | 102 | 65 | 37 |
Texas A&M | 2-4 | 4-6 | 92 | 57 | 35 |
Conference USA | |||||
East Division | |||||
Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
East Carolina | 4-1 | 6-3 | 97 | 62 | 35 |
Southern Miss. | 2-4 | 4-6 | 95 | 64 | 31 |
Marshall | 3-2 | 4-5 | 94 | 59 | 35 |
Memphis | 3-3 | 5-5 | 90 | 60 | 30 |
Central Florida | 1-4 | 2-7 | 87 | 48 | 39 |
U A B | 1-4 | 2-7 | 79 | 51 | 28 |
West Division | |||||
Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
Tulsa | 5-0 | 8-1 | 106 | 72 | 34 |
Houston | 4-1 | 5-4 | 95 | 63 | 32 |
Rice | 5-1 | 7-3 | 91 | 62 | 29 |
U T E P | 3-2 | 4-5 | 87 | 59 | 28 |
S M U | 0-6 | 1-9 | 81 | 59 | 22 |
Tulane | 1-4 | 2-7 | 79 | 53 | 26 |
Independents | |||||
Team | Overall | Rating | Off | Def | |
Notre Dame | 5-4 | 103 | 61 | 42 | |
Navy | 6-3 | 97 | 60 | 37 | |
Army | 3-7 | 86 | 49 | 37 |
Mid American Conference | |||||
East Division | |||||
Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
Bowling Green | 3-3 | 5-5 | 99 | 66 | 33 |
Buffalo | 3-2 | 5-4 | 98 | 65 | 33 |
Temple | 2-3 | 3-6 | 96 | 56 | 40 |
Akron | 3-2 | 5-4 | 93 | 62 | 31 |
Kent State | 1-4 | 2-7 | 89 | 58 | 31 |
Ohio U | 1-5 | 2-8 | 87 | 48 | 39 |
Miami (O) | 1-4 | 2-7 | 86 | 57 | 29 |
West Division | |||||
Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
Ball State | 5-0 | 9-0 | 114 | 74 | 40 |
Western Michigan | 5-1 | 8-2 | 102 | 64 | 38 |
Central Michigan | 5-0 | 7-2 | 98 | 66 | 32 |
Northern Illinois | 4-2 | 5-4 | 98 | 60 | 38 |
Toledo | 1-4 | 2-7 | 86 | 56 | 30 |
Eastern Michigan | 1-5 | 2-8 | 83 | 52 | 31 |
Mountain West Conference | |||||
Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
T C U | 6-1 | 9-2 | 117 | 66 | 51 |
Utah | 6-0 | 10-0 | 114 | 68 | 46 |
Brigham Young | 5-1 | 9-1 | 106 | 66 | 40 |
Air Force | 5-1 | 8-2 | 99 | 60 | 39 |
New Mexico | 2-5 | 4-7 | 96 | 59 | 37 |
UNLV | 1-5 | 4-6 | 90 | 59 | 31 |
Colorado State | 2-4 | 4-6 | 89 | 58 | 31 |
Wyoming | 1-5 | 4-6 | 88 | 53 | 35 |
San Diego State | 0-6 | 1-9 | 72 | 47 | 25 |
Pac-10 Conference | |||||
Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
Southern Cal | 6-1 | 8-1 | 132 | 73 | 59 |
Oregon State | 5-1 | 6-3 | 116 | 74 | 42 |
Oregon | 5-2 | 7-3 | 114 | 71 | 43 |
California | 4-2 | 6-3 | 114 | 72 | 42 |
Arizona | 4-2 | 6-3 | 112 | 73 | 39 |
Stanford | 4-3 | 5-5 | 108 | 65 | 43 |
Arizona State | 2-4 | 3-6 | 105 | 64 | 41 |
U C L A | 2-4 | 3-6 | 98 | 56 | 42 |
Washington | 0-6 | 0-9 | 87 | 57 | 30 |
Washington State | 0-7 | 1-9 | 71 | 48 | 23 |
Southeastern Conference | |||||
East Division | |||||
Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
Florida | 6-1 | 8-1 | 135 | 84 | 51 |
Georgia | 5-2 | 8-2 | 120 | 74 | 46 |
South Carolina | 4-3 | 7-3 | 115 | 67 | 48 |
Kentucky | 2-4 | 6-4 | 106 | 63 | 43 |
Vanderbilt | 3-3 | 5-4 | 104 | 58 | 46 |
Tennessee | 1-5 | 3-7 | 101 | 59 | 42 |
West Division | |||||
Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
Alabama | 6-0 | 10-0 | 120 | 68 | 52 |
L S U | 3-3 | 6-3 | 113 | 71 | 42 |
Ole Miss | 3-3 | 5-4 | 110 | 67 | 43 |
Auburn | 2-4 | 5-5 | 105 | 58 | 47 |
Mississippi State | 1-4 | 3-6 | 102 | 57 | 45 |
Arkansas | 1-5 | 4-6 | 101 | 67 | 34 |
Sunbelt Conference | |||||
Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
Troy | 4-1 | 6-3 | 97 | 64 | 33 |
Louisiana-Lafayette | 4-0 | 5-4 | 93 | 67 | 26 |
Florida Atlantic | 2-2 | 4-5 | 93 | 62 | 31 |
Arkansas State | 2-2 | 4-5 | 89 | 59 | 30 |
Middle Tennessee | 2-3 | 3-6 | 88 | 56 | 32 |
Louisiana-Monroe | 2-4 | 3-7 | 88 | 57 | 31 |
Florida International | 3-2 | 4-5 | 86 | 56 | 30 |
* Western Kentucky | 0-0 | 2-8 | 83 | 52 | 31 |
North Texas | 0-5 | 1-9 | 70 | 54 | 16 |
* Western Kentucky will become eligible in 2009 | |||||
Their games will not count in the SBC Standings in 2008 |
Western Athletic Conference | |||||
Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
Boise State | 5-0 | 9-0 | 116 | 72 | 44 |
Fresno State | 2-3 | 5-4 | 92 | 64 | 28 |
Nevada | 3-2 | 5-4 | 99 | 71 | 28 |
San Jose State | 4-2 | 6-4 | 89 | 54 | 35 |
Louisiana Tech | 3-2 | 5-4 | 96 | 56 | 40 |
Hawaii | 4-3 | 5-5 | 90 | 54 | 36 |
Utah State | 2-4 | 2-8 | 87 | 54 | 33 |
New Mexico State | 1-4 | 3-6 | 77 | 50 | 27 |
Idaho | 1-5 | 2-8 | 75 | 58 | 17 |
This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings | |||
Home Team in CAPS | (N) Denotes Neutral Site | ||
Tuesday, November 11 | |||
Favorite | Underdog | Pred. Spread | Approx. Score |
Ball State | MIAMI (O) | 25 | 45-20 |
Wednesday, November 12 | |||
Favorite | Underdog | Pred. Spread | Approx. Score |
Temple | KENT STATE | 4 | 24-20 |
NORTHERN ILLINOIS | Central Michigan | 3 | 30-27 |
Thursday, November 13 | |||
Favorite | Underdog | Pred. Spread | Approx. Score |
Buffalo | AKRON | 2 | 33-31 |
Va. Tech | MIAMI-FL | 1 | 22-21 |
UNLV | Wyoming | 5 | 26-21 |
Friday, November 14 | |||
Favorite | Underdog | Pred. Spread | Approx. Score |
Cincinnati | LOUISVILLE | 12 | 26-14 |
Saturday, November 15 | |||
Favorite | Underdog | Pred. Spread | Approx. Score |
PENN STATE | Indiana | 42 | 49-7 |
Ohio State | ILLINOIS | 17 | 30-13 |
SOUTH FLORIDA | Rutgers | 4 | 27-23 |
MICHIGAN | Northwestern | 4 | 24-20 |
CLEMSON | Duke | 16 | 33-17 |
Notre Dame | NAVY (Baltimore) | 4 | 24-20 |
IOWA | Purdue | 18 | 38-20 |
Texas | KANSAS | 15 | 40-25 |
Georgia | AUBURN | 12 | 24-12 |
Middle Tennessee | WESTERN KENTUCKY | 2 | 23-21 |
New Mexico | COLORADO STATE | 4 | 27-23 |
OLE MISS | Louisiana-Monroe | 25 | 38-13 |
WESTERN MICHIGAN | Toledo | 19 | 35-16 |
LOUISIANA TECH | Utah State | 12 | 24-12 |
SOUTHERN MISS. | East Carolina | 1 | 31-30 |
TULANE | U a b | 3 | 27-24 |
FLORIDA | South Carolina | 23 | 37-14 |
North Carolina | MARYLAND | 3 | 27-24 |
B y u | AIR FORCE | 4 | 27-23 |
Wake Forest | N.C. STATE | 2 | 22-20 |
OREGON STATE | California | 5 | 33-28 |
WISCONSIN | Minnesota | 16 | 37-21 |
OREGON | Arizona | 5 | 34-29 |
Nebraska | KANSAS STATE | 6 | 37-31 |
FLORIDA ATLANTIC | Louisiana-Lafayette | 3 | 38-35 |
BAYLOR | Texas A&M | 13 | 31-18 |
NEVADA | San Jose State | 13 | 37-24 |
MARSHALL | Central Florida | 10 | 20-10 |
Boise State | IDAHO | 38 | 52-14 |
FRESNO STATE | New Mexico State | 18 | 38-20 |
ARIZONA STATE | Washington State | 37 | 44-7 |
Missouri | IOWA STATE | 33 | 45-12 |
Southern Cal | STANFORD | 21 | 28-7 |
Connecticut | SYRACUSE | 12 | 28-16 |
ALABAMA | Mississippi State | 22 | 35-13 |
Utah | SAN DIEGO STATE | 39 | 42-3 |
Oklahoma State | COLORADO | 21 | 34-13 |
FLORIDA STATE | Boston College | 9 | 30-21 |
L S U | Troy | 19 | 38-19 |
Tulsa | HOUSTON | 8 | 38-30 |
KENTUCKY | Vanderbilt | 5 | 17-12 |
U T E P | S m u | 9 | 37-28 |
U c l a | WASHINGTON | 8 | 25-17 |
This Week’s Games–Mean Ratings | ||
Home Team in CAPS | (N) Denotes Neutral Site | |
Tuesday, November 11 | ||
Favorite | Underdog | Predicted Score |
Ball State | MIAMI (O) | 37-14 |
Wednesday, November 12 | ||
Favorite | Underdog | Predicted Score |
Temple | KENT STATE | 28-23 |
NORTHERN ILLINOIS | Central Michigan | 24-23 |
Thursday, November 13 | ||
Favorite | Underdog | Predicted Score |
AKRON | Buffalo | 28-27 |
MIAMI-FL | Virginia Tech | 24-20 |
UNLV | Wyoming | 28-20 |
Friday, November 14 | ||
Favorite | Underdog | Predicted Score |
Cincinnati | LOUISVILLE | 24-17 |
Saturday, November 15 | ||
Favorite | Underdog | Predicted Score |
PENN STATE | Indiana | 41-7 |
Ohio State | ILLINOIS | 23-14 |
SOUTH FLORIDA | Rutgers | 27-19 |
Northwestern | MICHIGAN | 31-26 |
CLEMSON | Duke | 28-23 |
NAVY | Notre Dame | 27-26 |
IOWA | Purdue | 28-13 |
Texas | KANSAS | 40-27 |
Georgia | AUBURN | 20-10 |
Middle Tennessee | WESTERN KENTUCKY | 16-14 |
New Mexico | COLORADO STATE | 24-23 |
OLE MISS | Louisiana-Monroe | 38-14 |
WESTERN MICHIGAN | Toledo | 35-19 |
LOUISIANA TECH | Utah State | 31-21 |
East Carolina | SOUTHERN MISS. | 24-24 to ot |
TULANE | U a b | 30-24 |
FLORIDA | South Carolina | 41-21 |
North Carolina | MARYLAND | 21-16 |
B y u | AIR FORCE | 27-27 to ot |
Wake Forest | N.C. STATE | 24-16 |
OREGON STATE | California | 31-27 |
WISCONSIN | Minnesota | 38-33 |
OREGON | Arizona | 30-26 |
KANSAS STATE | Nebraska | 37-31 |
FLORIDA ATLANTIC | Louisiana-Lafayette | 24-23 |
BAYLOR | Texas A&M | 34-28 |
NEVADA | San Jose State | 31-23 |
MARSHALL | Central Florida | 21-13 |
Boise State | IDAHO | 44-10 |
FRESNO STATE | New Mexico State | 40-27 |
ARIZONA STATE | Washington State | 45-21 |
Missouri | IOWA STATE | 40-14 |
Southern Cal | STANFORD | 23-3 |
Connecticut | SYRACUSE | 28-16 |
ALABAMA | Mississippi State | 35-7 |
Utah | SAN DIEGO STATE | 35-3 |
Oklahoma State | COLORADO | 38-23 |
FLORIDA STATE | Boston College | 28-20 |
L S U | Troy | 31-17 |
Tulsa | HOUSTON | 42-35 |
KENTUCKY | Vanderbilt | 14-10 |
U T E P | S m u | 40-27 |
U c l a | WASHINGTON | 26-21 |
Bowl Outlook by Conference
As I mentioned above, this is becoming a mess. Let’s take a look at the possible problems facing the bowls that must rely on conferences to produce seven to nine bowl eligible teams. A half-dozen bowls and maybe more could be forced to find at-large teams.
Teams in all CAPS have already accepted invitations to that bowl.
ACC
North Carolina State, Virginia, Clemson, and Duke are on the verge of elimination, and I believe three of the four will fail to get to six wins. The ACC has nine tie-ins, and it looks like they will just barely have nine bowl-eligible schools. The Clemson-Virginia game at Charlottesville on November 22 will be a bowl elimination game.
1. Orange Bowl-North Carolina 11-2 vs. Cincinnati
2. Chick-fil-a-Virginia Tech 8-4 vs. Kentucky
3. Gator-Florida State 8-4 vs. Missouri
4. Champs Sports-Wake Forest 9-4 vs. Northwestern
5. Music City-Miami 8-4 vs. Ole Miss
6. Meineke Car Care-Georgia Tech 8-4 vs. West Virginia
7. Eagle Bank-Maryland 7-5 vs. NAVY
8. Emerald-Boston College 7-5 vs. Arizona
9. Humanitarian-Virginia 6-6 vs. San Jose State
Big East
Another week, another leader in the pack for the Big East-Cincinnati is the new team on top. The Bearcats won at West Virginia, and wins over Louisville this Friday and Pittsburgh the following week will sew up the Big East title. They could lose either or both games, but for now, I have them penciled in as the champion.
With Notre Dame’s consecutive losses and almost assured to lose to Southern Cal, I have removed the Irish from the Big East equation. However, they will certainly grab an at-large bid from the first bowl that loses a tie-in.
I have Rutgers as the sole 6-6 team getting an at-large bowl bid. Should someone like Temple or Akron finish 7-5, they will take the at-large bid away.
1. Orange-Cincinnati 10-3 vs. North Carolina
2. Sun-Pittsburgh 9-3 vs. Oregon State
3. St. Petersburg-South Florida 8-4 vs. East Carolina
4. Meineke Car Care-West Virginia 7-5 vs. Georgia Tech
5. International-Connecticut 7-5 vs. Central Michigan
6. Papa John’s-Louisville 6-6 vs. Florida Atlantic
7. Hawaii (at-large)-Rutgers 6-6
Big Ten
Penn State’s loss has virtually relegated the Nittany Lions to the Rose Bowl. Should Michigan State beat them, then Ohio State can back into Pasadena for a possible rematch with Southern Cal. Illinois lost to Western Michigan, and now the Illini must beat either Ohio State or Northwestern to gain eligibility. For now, I have them out of the bowl picture, and that means the Big 10 will likely fall one team short of its obligations. That means the Motor City Bowl will need to search for a substitute. Notre Dame would fit in perfectly here, but if Ball State runs the table and finishes 13-0, it could present a special situation for the Motor City Bowl to make a deal with the WAC and take a 12-0 Boise State team for a dream match.
Minnesota’s loss to Michigan opens the door for another team to sneak into a New Year’s Bowl, but for now I have the Gophers still there.
1. Rose-Penn State 11-1 vs. Southern Cal
2. Fiesta-Ohio State 10-2 vs. Texas
3. Capital One-Michigan State 9-3 vs. Georgia
4. Outback-Minnesota 8-4 vs. South Carolina
5. Champs Sports-Northwestern 8-4 vs. Wake Forest
6. Alamo-Iowa 7-5 vs. Nebraska
7. Insight-Wisconsin 7-5 vs. Kansas
8. Motor City-No Team Available
Big 12
Texas Tech looked like a championship team against Oklahoma State, but I think they will find it difficult to win at Oklahoma. If the Sooners beat the Red Raiders, they will then have to beat Oklahoma State in Stillwater in order to finish in a three-way tie in the Big 12 South. If they win both games, they should finish with the highest BCS rating among the trio and acquire the bid to the Big 12 Championship Game. I have them doing just that. Now, here is where I think the evils of money will win out over what is just. At 11-1, Texas Tech would deserve an at-large BCS Bowl bid over 11-1 Texas, but I am sure greed would win out. Texas would get that bid.
Colorado and Kansas State still have much work to do to gain bowl eligibility. I think the Buffaloes will miss out, and it could mean big trouble for Coach Dan Hawkins in Boulder. Kansas State has a decent chance to upset Nebraska and knock off Iowa State to sneak in at 6-6. If they lose to the Cornhuskers, then the Big 12 will fall two teams short in their allotments.
1. BCS National Championship-Oklahoma 12-1 vs. Florida
2. Fiesta-Texas 11-1 vs. Ohio State
3. Cotton-Texas Tech 11-1 vs. LSU
4. Gator-Missouri 10-3 vs. Florida State
5. Holiday-Oklahoma State 9-3 vs. California
6. Alamo-Nebraska 7-5 vs. Iowa
7. Insight-Kansas 6-6 vs. Wisconsin
8. Independence-Kansas State 6-6 vs. Louisiana Tech
9. Texas-No Qualifying team
C-USA
This is a big week in the C-USA, as both divisions have key showdowns that will go a long way in determining their representatives in the conference title game. Houston hosts Tulsa, and should the Cougars win, the West Division will be tied three ways between these two and Rice. Houston concludes the season at Rice. Tulsa holds the tiebreaker over Rice, and Houston would hold the tiebreaker over Tulsa if they beat the Golden Hurricane.
In the East, East Carolina visits Southern Mississippi. If the Pirates win, they are in the title game. Marshall still has an outside chance to win this division, but I believe the Thundering Herd will lose at least two more games and fail to gain bowl eligibility.
After a start that looked like it would cost Tommy West his job, his Memphis team is the hottest squad in the East Division. I look for the Tigers to win out and earn their fifth bowl game in six years.
Southern Mississippi must defeat ECU and SMU to get to six wins; for now, I have them doing that, but it is quite a tenuous supposition. Chances are about 60% that the New Orleans Bowl will have to find an at-large team.
1. Liberty-Tulsa 11-2 vs. Vanderbilt
2. St. Petersburg-East Carolina 8-5 vs. South Florida
3. G M A C-Rice 9-3 vs. Western Michigan
4. Armed Forces-Houston 7-5 vs. U N L V
5. Texas-Memphis 7-5 vs. Buffalo
6. New Orleans-Southern Miss. 6-6 vs. Troy
Independent
The one sure thing is that Navy is headed to the first Eagle Bank Bowl in Washington, D.C. Notre Dame should be bowl eligible, and at 7-5 they will definitely be invited to fill an at-large spot. They could still steal the Sun Bowl bid from the Big East, but I believe there will be more deserving teams to go to El Paso.
1. Sun-Notre Dame 7-5 vs. Arizona
2. Eagle Bank-NAVY 7-5 vs. Wake Forest
M A C
Here is where the bowl situation becomes a bloody mess. Let’s start with the possibility that Ball State could finish 13-0 and in the top 15 and not qualify for an at-large BCS Bowl. At 13-0, it would be terrible for the Cardinals to face a 6-6 Big 10 team or some at-large team that barely qualified at 7-5. I believe an excellent situation would be available if both Boise State and Ball State finished undefeated. A deal could be struck for the two teams to play, leaving a western bowl with two more evenly-matched teams. Should Utah lose to BYU, then Ball State would still need a Boise State loss to back into a possible Sugar Bowl bid.
Since it is silly to try to predict a back room deal, I am leaving the bowl tie-ins alone for now, but with the above caveat in place.
As for the rest of the league, this is getting very interesting. The MAC finishes the season with November games on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays. Last week, the nation saw Ball State destroy a good Northern Illinois team. Tonight (Tuesday), the Cardinals should blow Miami of Ohio off the field. Three more key conference games tomorrow and Thursday could play important roles in determining bowl bids. Akron and Buffalo hook up in the Rubber Bowl, where the winner takes a commanding lead in the East. Temple goes to Kent State, where an Owl win puts them in position to challenge for a piece of the division title. Northern Illinois and Central Michigan play Wednesday in Dekalb, and if the Chippewas win on the road, they may be a major obstacle for Ball State the following Wednesday.
1. Motor City-Ball State 13-0 vs. Notre Dame (Boise State?)
2. International-Central Michigan 9-3 vs. Connecticut
3. G M A C-Western Michigan 9-3 vs. Rice
4. Poinsettia (at-large)-Northern Illinois 7-5 vs. BYU
5. Texas (at-large)-Buffalo 7-6 vs. Memphis
Mountain West
Utah’s come-from-behind win over TCU has them firmly holding onto the at-large BCS Bowl bid. A win over a weakening BYU team will clinch it. That means, the MWC will get an extra bowl bid, and there will be an available team. That team will be the one that finishes 6-6 from among UNLV, Wyoming, and Colorado State. Wyoming plays the other two to finish out the season, while UNLV also plays San Diego State and Colorado State also plays New Mexico. The Rebels have the easiest path to 6-6.
See the WAC for an explanation of the New Mexico.
1. Sugar-Utah 12-0 vs. Alabama
2. Las Vegas-TCU 10-2 vs. Oregon
3. Poinsettia-BYU 9-3 vs. Northern Illinois
4. New Mexico-Air Force 9-3 vs. Boise State (Notre Dame?)
5. Armed Forces-UNLV 6-6 vs. Houston
Pac-10
Oregon State still controls its own destiny in the Pac-10. If the Beavers beat California, Arizona, and Oregon, they are in the Rose Bowl no matter what USC does in their games. An Oregon State-Penn State rematch would not be all that exciting. I think OSU will lose one of those final three, and USC will win out.
Stanford must upset either USC or Cal to gain bowl eligibility, and I don’t believe they can do that. UCLA will most certainly not win out, so the Bruins will not get to six wins. Arizona State has a remote chance of winning out to finish 6-6, but for now I have them finishing 5-7. That means the Pac-10 will fall two teams shy of their bowl allotments.
1. Rose-Southern Cal 11-1 vs. Penn State
2. Holiday-California 8-4 vs. Oklahoma State
3. Sun-Oregon State 8-4 vs. Pittsburgh
4. Las Vegas-Oregon 8-4 vs. TCU
5. Emerald-Arizona 8-4 vs. Boston College
6. Poinsettia-No qualifying team
7. Hawaii- No qualifying team
S E C
Has there ever been a more dominant one-loss team in college football than the 2008 Florida Gators? I can only compare them to a few past teams, mostly from six decades past. In 1943, a 9-1 Notre Dame team easily destroyed eight of their opponents before surviving against one military all-star team and losing late to another. Of course, the Irish were so dominant then with help of WWII. I liken this Florida team to the 1968 UCLA Bruin basketball team. UCLA lost by two points on the road to the best team since 1956 not coached by John Wooden. They lost with Lew Alcindor (Kareem Abdul Jabbar) still hampered by an eye injury. When the Bruins faced Houston in the Final Four, they led by over 40 points with eight minutes remaining before Coach Wooden emptied the bench. Now Florida did not lose on the road at Alabama, Texas Tech, or USC. Tim Tebow was not recovering from an injury at the time the Gators lost at home to Ole Miss. However, this is SEC football. Any SEC team that is headed to a bowl is by definition one of the best in the nation. We all know the Gators would beat Ole Miss by five touchdowns in a rematch. I think Florida today can beat any college team by two touchdowns or more, with the exception of Southern Cal, and they would beat them by 7-10 points.
Alabama is still unbeaten and ranked number one. The Tide should reach the SEC Championship Game at 12-0, but I’m willing to wager that an 11-1 Florida team will be favored by the wise guys in Las Vegas, who know who is the best team in the nation. Penn State’s losing last week crushed the hopes of the Rose Bowl to get the Tide out to Pasadena. If Southern Cal could move into the top spot, then a 12-1 Bama team could still make it west for the first time since January of 1946. Fat Chance!
The SEC is going to fall at least two teams short in meeting their bowl obligations. Tennessee was eliminated last week. Auburn would have to beat either Georgia or Alabama, and that won’t happen. Mississippi State would have to beat Alabama, Arkansas, and Ole Miss, and there’s no chance. Arkansas might beat Mississippi State, but they won’t defeat LSU and will finish under .500. Vanderbilt still needs one win and has Kentucky, Tennessee, and Wake Forest left. For now, I am calling the Tennessee game a win, but I am not confident about that. They could easily finish 5-7 after starting 5-0 and really put daggers in the hearts of their fans.
1. National Championship-Florida 12-1 vs. Oklahoma
2. Sugar-Alabama 12-1 vs. Utah
3. Capital One-Georgia 10-2 vs. Michigan State
4. Outback-South Carolina 8-4 vs. Minnesota
5. Cotton-L S U 9-3 vs. Texas Tech
6. Chick-fil-a-Kentucky 7-5 vs. Virginia Tech
7. Music City-Ole Miss 7-5 vs. Miami
8. Liberty-Vanderbilt 6-6 vs. Tulsa
9. Independence-No qualifying team
10. Papa John’s-No qualifying team
Sunbelt
Troy is still in command here, but the Trojans have a tough game remaining against Louisiana-Lafayette. Troy would have gotten an extra week to prepare for this game, but their game with LSU had to be rescheduled after the September hurricane. The ULL game is in Troy, so I still have the Trojans penciled in darkly as probable SBC champs.
With all the at-large possibilities, chances are quite strong that a second team will get a bowl bid. There is even a slim chance that a third team could earn one too.
1. New Orleans-Troy 8-4 vs. Southern Miss.
2. Papa John’s (at-large)-Florida Atlantic 7-5 vs. Louisville
W A C
Boise State should finish 12-0, and they should finish in the top 10. Unless Utah loses, the Broncos will be left out in the cold when the BCS doles out its big bowl bids. Personally, I would love to see a Utah-Boise State Fiesta Bowl or even Cotton Bowl, but that isn’t going to happen. What could happen is a deal for Boise State to be released from their WAC bowl alliance to face Ball State if both are unbeaten.
San Jose State is the only other WAC team that has secured bowl eligibility, and there are four other teams vying for the remaining two bowls. I believe three will get to seven wins, and one of the trio will get an at-large invitation.
1. New Mexico-Boise State 12-0 vs. Air Force
(Boise State could swap with Notre Dame and face a 13-0 Ball State team. I am sure the New Mexico Bowl would gladly take Notre Dame.)
2. Humanitarian-San Jose State 7-5 vs. Virginia
3. Hawaii-Hawaii 7-6 vs. Rutgers
4. Independence (at-large)-Louisiana Tech 8-4 vs. Kansas St.