The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 26, 2015

PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated College Playoffs–Semifinal Round

The Semifinal Round of the 2015-16 PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated Playoffs have been played, and the Final Four has now been whittled down to two.

 

In case you are wondering why Michigan St., Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Stanford are the Final Four teams, this season’s simulation used the Football Championship Series format of 24 teams.  Michigan St. defeated Baylor and Iowa to make it to the semifinals.  Ole Miss defeated Houston, Clemson, and North Carolina, as the Rebels were the #16 seed and had to win a play-in game to make it to the Sweet 16.  Oklahoma defeated Michigan and Ohio St., while Stanford got here by knocking off Florida St. and Alabama.

 

Here are the Final Four Semifinal Results.

Semifinal Round 1 2 3 4 F FD Rush Pass Total
#16 Ole Miss 3 14 7 3 27 18 129 268 397
#5 Michigan St. 0 7 10 0 17 17 161 158 327
                   
#3 Oklahoma 0 3 21 7 31 22 154 247 401
#7 Stanford 7 6 0 7 20 17 169 158 327

This sets up Simper Bowl IX at Arlington, Texas, next week.  16th-seed Ole Miss will play 3rd-seed Oklahoma.

 

Fear not ye of computer simulation tremors.  Next week, we will run our annual 100 sims on the playoff games–the real ones where that sugar-addicted dude Larry Culpepper will be lurking around somewhere.

 

 

Advertisements

December 19, 2015

PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated College Playoffs–Quarterfinal Round

The first two rounds of the Computer Simulated NCAA Playoffs have been previously posted here.  Today’s Quarterfinal Round featured three teams from the Big Ten, two from the SEC, and one each from the ACC, Big 12, and Pac-12.

If you have not been following our 2015-16 tournament, we are using the same 24-team format currently in use by the Football Championship Division.  Here are the contests for the football version of the Elite 8.

Quarterfinal Round   1 2 3 4 F FD Rush Pass Total
#16 Ole Miss at 10 14 0 3 27 24 163 242 405
#8 North Carolina   7 6 3 0 16 17 145 189 334
                     
#7 Stanford at 7 0 3 7 17 12 130 169 299
#2 Alabama   3 3 7 0 13 17 202 116 318
                     
#6 Ohio St. at 0 3 14 3 20 20 221 106 327
#3 Oklahoma   5 7 14 0 26 22 137 303 440
                     
#5 Michigan St. at 3 3 7 10 23 19 129 222 351
#4 Iowa   0 14 0 7 21 16 172 133 305

The Final Four is now set.  In next week’s semifinal round, it will be:

#16 Ole Miss vs. #5 Michigan St. at the Orange Bowl

#7 Stanford vs. #3 Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl

November 1, 2015

College Football Preview: November 3-7, 2015

The 5-Star College Football Week of the Season
This is the biggest week of the college football season so far. Many questions will be answered by this time next Sunday. The second issuing of the NCAA Playoff Committee will be much different than the first one that comes out Tuesday, as many of the contending teams face off against other contending teams this week. Additionally, there are key games that will weed out conference championship pretenders from the contenders. And, in multiple cases, there will be games where the winners take a giant step toward bowl eligibity, while the losers drop out of the picture.

This is the great Bonanza for you the fan this week.

Tuesday
Northern Illinois at Toledo: Toledo is still in the race for a New Year’s Six Bowl bid. The Rockets hold wins over Arkansas and Iowa State, and they would need for Memphis and Houston to lose before they would have a shot, but it is still possible. Northern Illinois is still in the MAC West Division race.

Wednesday
Ohio at Bowling Green: The MAC East Division title goes to Bowling Green if the Falcons win this game. If Ohio upsets BGU, the Falcons still have a one-game lead.

Thursday
Arkansas St. at Appalachian St.: The winner will hold first place to themselves in the Sun Belt Conference. Both teams are going bowling this year, and if Appy St. wins out to finish 11-1, that could set up an incredible GoDaddy.com bowl between two 11-win teams.

Saturday
Duke at North Carolina: A week after getting “hosed” by the referees, Duke must now win at its arch-rival to stay in the ACC Coastal Division race. A Tar Heel win basically puts North Carolina in the ACC Championship Game.

Florida St. at Clemson: Another impressive CU win could vault the Tigers into the upper two spots in the Playoff bracket with no remaining teams to play as strong as FSU or Notre Dame, who Clemson would have already beaten. If Florida St. can win at Clemson and then at Florida, and if they could then win the ACC Championship Game, the Seminoles would have a chance at the #4 seed.

Arkansas at Ole Miss: This could be a trap game for the Rebels. With a game coming up against LSU, Ole Miss can ill-afford to lose to Arkansas and fall below the Alabama-LSU winner. If Ole Miss can win, the Rebels stay in control in the SEC West Race.

Iowa at Indiana: The Hawkeyes can only make the Playoffs if they win out and then beat either Ohio St. or Michigan St. in the Big Ten Championship Game. Indiana was once 4-0, but they have dropped four straight games. The Hoosiers must come up with two wins in their last four games, and besides this game, they face Michigan and Maryland and Purdue on the road. Kevin Wilson’s job could be on the line.

TCU at Oklahoma St.: The winner should move into the top 4 in the following week’s poll, and Oklahoma State has come out of nowhere to be in this position. The Cowboys host the three other contenders in the league, and at this point, we have to consider them the co-favorite to win the Big 12. The other co-favorite is the team they play Saturday. We believe the winner of this game will emerge as the league champion, but if the league champion loses a game, the destination will most likely be New Orleans for the Sugar Bowl and not the Playoffs.

Cincinnati at Houston: The Cougars can smell that New Year’s 6 Bowl Bid. They have the most advantageous schedule of any of the contending teams for the one guaranteed Group of 5 teams. Cincinnati is out of the NY6 picture, but the Bearcats have an offense capable of matching UH point for point.

Utah St. at New Mexico: Bob Davie has the Lobos close to getting back to a bowl. New Mexico is 4-4 and needs two upsets in their final four games from a group that also includes Boise St., Colorado St., and Air Force. If the Lobos can get an upset in this game, we believe they will get one more. As for Utah St., the Mountain West Mountain Division flag is in their grasp with a previous win over Boise St., but the Aggies must still play at Air Force and cannot afford to slip up here.

Navy at Memphis: Memphis must keep pace with Houston and Toledo in the Group of 5 race. A win here would be considered a quality win, especially if the Tigers can win as convincingly as Notre Dame’s win over the Midshipmen. Navy is basically locked into a Military Bowl bid at this point, but if they beat Memphis and win out, while Houston and Toledo both lose a game ,the Middies could find themselves in the Peach or Fiesta Bowl.

LSU at Alabama: This is the top game of the week. How many times in recent history has this game had national championship repercussions? Can Leonard Fournette keep LSU’s offense moving against a Crimson Tide defense that will force the Tigers to throw the ball or face eight men up front? What about Alabama’s offense? It has been Jekyll and Hyde this year when the Tide has the ball. LSU’s run defense might be up to the task to slow the ‘Bama running game. It should be close and lower than average scoring.

This Week’s Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 128.9 126.7 128.5 128.0
2 Ohio St. 129.0 123.6 129.8 127.5
3 Baylor 128.3 124.8 128.8 127.3
4 TCU 129.5 121.0 130.1 126.9
5 Oklahoma 126.4 122.9 126.6 125.3
6 LSU 124.3 121.5 124.7 123.5
7 Clemson 122.6 123.8 123.3 123.2
8 Stanford 122.5 120.7 122.2 121.8
9 Notre Dame 122.8 119.7 122.8 121.8
10 USC 122.7 119.1 123.1 121.6
11 Florida 121.5 118.3 121.9 120.6
12 Ole Miss 122.7 117.7 120.8 120.4
13 Tennessee 121.4 117.3 121.4 120.0
14 Utah 121.7 116.2 120.9 119.6
15 North Carolina 117.8 118.1 117.7 117.9
16 UCLA 120.3 114.3 118.5 117.7
17 Michigan 118.5 115.4 118.1 117.3
18 Texas A&M 117.8 114.5 116.0 116.1
19 Arkansas 118.0 112.5 117.0 115.8
20 Michigan St. 116.6 113.4 116.3 115.4
21 Mississippi St. 115.8 112.5 116.2 114.8
22 Oklahoma St. 115.2 112.8 115.6 114.5
23 California 116.2 110.9 115.6 114.2
24 Florida St. 114.1 114.8 113.4 114.1
25 Georgia 116.9 109.8 115.5 114.1
26 Arizona St. 116.0 110.8 115.0 113.9
27 Oregon 116.0 109.3 115.3 113.5
28 Houston 110.2 117.0 112.9 113.4
29 Wisconsin 113.2 113.5 112.7 113.1
30 Auburn 113.8 111.2 112.8 112.6
31 Iowa 110.7 112.9 111.3 111.6
32 Georgia Tech 112.7 110.3 111.3 111.4
33 Boise St. 112.4 109.0 112.1 111.2
34 West Virginia 113.2 107.5 112.4 111.0
35 Memphis 110.3 111.2 111.1 110.9
36 Virginia Tech 110.2 109.9 110.0 110.0
37 North Carolina St. 109.8 111.2 108.6 109.9
38 Temple 108.8 110.9 109.5 109.7
39 Washington 110.3 107.7 110.9 109.6
40 Bowling Green 106.2 111.0 109.0 108.7
41 Duke 108.4 108.8 108.9 108.7
42 Missouri 109.0 105.4 108.0 107.5
43 Louisville 106.9 109.3 106.2 107.5
44 Pittsburgh 106.9 107.6 107.5 107.3
45 BYU 107.1 106.3 108.0 107.1
46 Western Kentucky 106.4 106.5 107.7 106.9
47 Penn St. 106.7 107.0 106.7 106.8
48 Nebraska 107.8 106.0 106.6 106.8
49 San Diego St. 104.0 108.4 105.5 106.0
50 Cincinnati 105.0 106.1 106.3 105.8
51 Toledo 104.6 105.6 106.3 105.5
52 South Carolina 107.2 103.7 105.5 105.5
53 Miami 104.1 104.7 105.1 104.6
54 Arizona 106.6 100.9 105.4 104.3
55 Washington St. 105.3 101.4 105.1 103.9
56 Minnesota 104.7 103.0 104.0 103.9
57 Northwestern 103.9 104.0 103.5 103.8
58 Texas Tech 106.8 98.3 106.2 103.8
59 Colorado 105.9 100.7 104.3 103.6
60 Texas 104.7 101.4 104.5 103.5
61 Louisiana Tech 102.8 102.2 103.6 102.9
62 Navy 100.3 103.8 100.9 101.7
63 Kansas St. 105.3 95.2 104.3 101.6
64 Illinois 102.6 100.7 101.4 101.6
65 Kentucky 103.3 99.4 101.8 101.5
66 Virginia 101.7 99.7 101.3 100.9
67 Appalachian St. 99.1 102.3 101.3 100.9
68 Utah St. 100.3 100.8 100.8 100.6
69 Boston College 99.8 103.0 98.4 100.4
70 Western Michigan 99.5 100.2 100.6 100.1
71 Iowa St. 99.9 96.4 100.1 98.8
72 Purdue 99.2 98.5 98.0 98.6
73 Vanderbilt 99.9 95.9 99.7 98.5
74 Air Force 96.8 100.8 96.3 98.0
75 Georgia Southern 95.9 98.7 96.8 97.1
76 Northern Illinois 95.3 99.2 96.0 96.8
77 Wake Forest 95.2 98.5 94.5 96.1
78 Indiana 96.2 96.2 95.5 96.0
79 Marshall 95.5 96.6 95.8 96.0
80 East Carolina 93.4 96.9 94.2 94.8
81 South Florida 92.5 98.4 93.3 94.7
82 Syracuse 93.9 96.6 93.3 94.6
83 Maryland 94.5 92.9 94.0 93.8
84 Rutgers 95.1 92.1 93.6 93.6
85 Central Michigan 90.7 95.0 92.8 92.8
86 Southern Mississippi 91.7 93.8 92.5 92.7
87 Middle Tennessee 93.2 92.0 92.7 92.6
88 San Jose St. 91.3 94.2 91.2 92.2
89 Tulsa 90.1 94.4 91.1 91.9
90 Colorado St. 92.2 90.8 91.0 91.3
91 Florida International 90.1 92.7 90.7 91.2
92 Oregon St. 92.6 89.3 90.8 90.9
93 Connecticut 88.6 93.4 89.5 90.5
94 Nevada 88.8 92.5 88.4 89.9
95 Arkansas St. 89.1 89.9 89.9 89.6
96 Ohio 87.0 91.3 88.6 89.0
97 New Mexico 88.2 89.0 86.9 88.0
98 Tulane 85.4 87.7 84.9 86.0
99 Buffalo 83.2 89.5 85.1 85.9
100 Massachusetts 84.6 87.2 85.4 85.7
101 Akron 83.0 88.9 84.4 85.4
102 UL-Lafayette 83.6 86.7 84.1 84.8
103 SMU 83.6 87.5 83.2 84.8
104 Rice 83.3 86.6 83.5 84.5
105 Hawaii 83.4 85.6 83.1 84.0
106 Ball St. 82.7 85.1 83.6 83.8
107 UNLV 82.6 84.6 83.2 83.5
108 Florida Atlantic 81.8 84.9 82.3 83.0
109 Troy 80.7 82.1 82.2 81.7
110 Texas St. 80.4 83.8 79.9 81.4
111 Fresno St. 80.7 84.4 78.9 81.3
112 Army 77.7 86.7 79.1 81.2
113 Wyoming 80.6 82.8 79.8 81.1
114 UT-San Antonio 79.8 82.3 80.6 80.9
115 Kent St. 79.5 82.0 80.0 80.5
116 Central Florida 79.2 82.2 79.5 80.3
117 UTEP 76.6 79.1 76.2 77.3
118 South Alabama 74.7 80.7 75.6 77.0
119 Georgia St. 76.9 76.7 77.4 77.0
120 Old Dominion 75.3 79.7 74.3 76.4
121 UL-Monroe 76.7 75.6 76.7 76.3
122 Idaho 73.1 78.5 74.4 75.3
123 North Texas 73.2 78.0 73.6 74.9
124 Miami (O) 73.1 77.6 73.5 74.7
125 Eastern Michigan 72.2 78.8 71.7 74.2
126 Kansas 76.6 70.2 74.5 73.8
127 New Mexico St. 68.8 70.3 69.0 69.4
128 Charlotte 68.1 70.1 67.7 68.6

 

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Ohio St.
2 Alabama
3 TCU
4 Clemson
5 LSU
6 Baylor
7 Oklahoma
8 Michigan St.
9 Notre Dame
10 Utah
11 Iowa
12 Florida
13 Stanford
14 Oklahoma St.
15 Michigan
16 Memphis
17 Ole Miss
18 USC
19 Houston
20 Florida St.
21 North Carolina
22 Mississippi St.
23 Toledo
24 Wisconsin
25 Texas A&M
26 UCLA
27 Navy
28 Temple
29 BYU
30 Tennessee
31 Northwestern
32 Penn St.
33 California
34 Boise St.
35 Appalachian St.
36 Bowling Green
37 Duke
38 Pittsburgh
39 Oregon
40 Washington
41 Western Kentucky
42 Arkansas
43 Miami (Fla)
44 Georgia
45 Cincinnati
46 Texas Tech
47 Washington St.
48 Louisville
49 Utah St.
50 North Carolina St.
51 Georgia Southern
52 Auburn
53 West Virginia
54 Marshall
55 Louisiana Tech
56 Virginia Tech
57 Arizona St.
58 San Diego St.
59 Western Michigan
60 Central Michigan
61 Kansas St.
62 Air Force
63 Georgia Tech
64 Minnesota
65 Illinois
66 Iowa St.
67 Indiana
68 Northern Illinois
69 Virginia
70 Missouri
71 Texas
72 South Carolina
73 Arizona
74 Kentucky
75 Arkansas St.
76 Southern Miss.
77 Tulsa
78 Connecticut
79 South Florida
80 East Carolina
81 Nebraska
82 Colorado
83 Boston College
84 Syracuse
85 Ohio
86 Purdue
87 Vanderbilt
88 Maryland
89 Rutgers
90 Buffalo
91 MTSU
92 Wake Forest
93 Louisiana-Lafayette
94 Colorado St.
95 San Jose St.
96 Kent St.
97 Rice
98 Akron
99 Nevada
100 South Alabama
101 Oregon St.
102 Troy
103 Florida Int’l.
104 Ball St.
105 UNLV
106 New Mexico
107 Tulane
108 SMU
109 Army
110 Old Dominion
111 Texas St.
112 Fresno St.
113 Massachusetts
114 Idaho
115 Florida Atlantic
116 Georgia St.
117 Hawaii
118 Kansas
119 Louisiana-Monroe
120 Wyoming
121 UTSA
122 UTEP
123 Miami (O)
124 Eastern Michigan
125 North Texas
126 Central Florida
127 Charlotte
128 New Mexico St.

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Temple 4-0 7-1 108.8 110.9 109.5 109.7
Cincinnati 2-2 5-3 105.0 106.1 106.3 105.8
East Carolina 2-3 4-5 93.4 96.9 94.2 94.8
South Florida 2-2 4-4 92.5 98.4 93.3 94.7
Connecticut 2-3 4-5 88.6 93.4 89.5 90.5
Central Florida 0-5 0-9 79.2 82.2 79.5 80.3
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 4-0 8-0 110.2 117.0 112.9 113.4
Memphis 4-0 8-0 110.3 111.2 111.1 110.9
Navy 4-0 6-1 100.3 103.8 100.9 101.7
Tulsa 1-3 4-4 90.1 94.4 91.1 91.9
Tulane 1-4 2-6 85.4 87.7 84.9 86.0
SMU 0-4 1-7 83.6 87.5 83.2 84.8
             
AAC Averages     95.6 99.1 96.4 97.0
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 5-0 8-0 122.6 123.8 123.3 123.2
Florida St. 5-1 7-1 114.1 114.8 113.4 114.1
North Carolina St. 1-3 5-3 109.8 111.2 108.6 109.9
Louisville 3-2 4-4 106.9 109.3 106.2 107.5
Boston College 0-6 3-6 99.8 103.0 98.4 100.4
Wake Forest 1-5 3-6 95.2 98.5 94.5 96.1
Syracuse 1-3 3-5 93.9 96.6 93.3 94.6
             
Coastal Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
North Carolina 4-0 7-1 117.8 118.1 117.7 117.9
Georgia Tech 1-5 3-6 112.7 110.3 111.3 111.4
Virginia Tech 2-3 4-5 110.2 109.9 110.0 110.0
Duke 3-1 6-2 108.4 108.8 108.9 108.7
Pittsburgh 4-1 6-2 106.9 107.6 107.5 107.3
Miami 2-2 5-3 104.1 104.7 105.1 104.6
Virginia 2-2 3-5 101.7 99.7 101.3 100.9
             
ACC Averages     107.4 108.3 107.1 107.6
             
Big 12 Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Baylor 4-0 7-0 128.3 124.8 128.8 127.3
TCU 5-0 8-0 129.5 121.0 130.1 126.9
Oklahoma 4-1 7-1 126.4 122.9 126.6 125.3
Oklahoma St. 5-0 8-0 115.2 112.8 115.6 114.5
West Virginia 0-4 3-4 113.2 107.5 112.4 111.0
Texas Tech 2-4 5-4 106.8 98.3 106.2 103.8
Texas 2-3 3-5 104.7 101.4 104.5 103.5
Kansas St. 0-4 3-4 105.3 95.2 104.3 101.6
Iowa St. 2-3 3-5 99.9 96.4 100.1 98.8
Kansas 0-5 0-8 76.6 70.2 74.5 73.8
             
Big 12 Averages     110.6 105.1 110.3 108.7
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 4-0 8-0 129.0 123.6 129.8 127.5
Michigan 3-1 6-2 118.5 115.4 118.1 117.3
Michigan St. 4-0 8-0 116.6 113.4 116.3 115.4
Penn St. 4-1 7-2 106.7 107.0 106.7 106.8
Indiana 0-4 4-4 96.2 96.2 95.5 96.0
Maryland 0-4 2-6 94.5 92.9 94.0 93.8
Rutgers 1-4 3-5 95.1 92.1 93.6 93.6
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 4-1 7-2 113.2 113.5 112.7 113.1
Iowa 4-0 8-0 110.7 112.9 111.3 111.6
Nebraska 1-4 3-6 107.8 106.0 106.6 106.8
Minnesota 1-3 4-4 104.7 103.0 104.0 103.9
Northwestern 2-2 6-2 103.9 104.0 103.5 103.8
Illinois 1-3 4-4 102.6 100.7 101.4 101.6
Purdue 1-3 2-6 99.2 98.5 98.0 98.6
             
Big Ten Averages     107.1 105.7 106.5 106.4
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 5-0 7-2 106.4 106.5 107.7 106.9
Marshall 5-0 8-1 95.5 96.6 95.8 96.0
Middle Tennessee 2-2 3-5 93.2 92.0 92.7 92.6
Florida International 2-3 4-5 90.1 92.7 90.7 91.2
Florida Atlantic 2-3 2-6 81.8 84.9 82.3 83.0
Old Dominion 1-3 3-5 75.3 79.7 74.3 76.4
Charlotte 0-5 2-6 68.1 70.1 67.7 68.6
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 4-1 6-3 102.8 102.2 103.6 102.9
Southern Mississippi 4-1 6-3 91.7 93.8 92.5 92.7
Rice 2-2 4-4 83.3 86.6 83.5 84.5
UT-San Antonio 1-3 1-7 79.8 82.3 80.6 80.9
UTEP 1-3 3-5 76.6 79.1 76.2 77.3
North Texas 1-4 1-7 73.2 78.0 73.6 74.9
             
CUSA Averages     86.0 88.0 86.2 86.8
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   7-1 122.8 119.7 122.8 121.8
BYU   6-2 107.1 106.3 108.0 107.1
Army   2-6 77.7 86.7 79.1 81.2
             
Independents Averages     102.5 104.2 103.3 103.4
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Bowling Green 4-0 6-2 106.2 111.0 109.0 108.7
Ohio 2-2 5-3 87.0 91.3 88.6 89.0
Buffalo 2-2 4-4 83.2 89.5 85.1 85.9
Massachusetts 0-4 1-7 84.6 87.2 85.4 85.7
Akron 1-3 3-5 83.0 88.9 84.4 85.4
Kent St. 2-2 3-5 79.5 82.0 80.0 80.5
Miami (O) 0-5 1-8 73.1 77.6 73.5 74.7
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 4-0 7-0 104.6 105.6 106.3 105.5
Western Michigan 4-0 5-3 99.5 100.2 100.6 100.1
Northern Illinois 3-1 5-3 95.3 99.2 96.0 96.8
Central Michigan 4-1 5-4 90.7 95.0 92.8 92.8
Ball St. 2-3 3-6 82.7 85.1 83.6 83.8
Eastern Michigan 0-5 1-8 72.2 78.8 71.7 74.2
             
MAC Averages     87.8 91.6 89.0 89.5
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 4-1 7-2 112.4 109.0 112.1 111.2
Utah St. 4-1 5-3 100.3 100.8 100.8 100.6
Air Force 4-1 5-3 96.8 100.8 96.3 98.0
Colorado St. 1-3 3-5 92.2 90.8 91.0 91.3
New Mexico 2-2 4-4 88.2 89.0 86.9 88.0
Wyoming 1-4 1-8 80.6 82.8 79.8 81.1
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 5-0 6-3 104.0 108.4 105.5 106.0
San Jose St. 3-2 4-4 91.3 94.2 91.2 92.2
Nevada 2-2 4-4 88.8 92.5 88.4 89.9
Hawaii 0-5 2-7 83.4 85.6 83.1 84.0
UNLV 1-3 2-6 82.6 84.6 83.2 83.5
Fresno St. 1-4 2-6 80.7 84.4 78.9 81.3
             
MWC Averages     91.8 93.6 91.4 92.3
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Stanford 6-0 7-1 122.5 120.7 122.2 121.8
California 2-3 5-3 116.2 110.9 115.6 114.2
Oregon 3-2 5-3 116.0 109.3 115.3 113.5
Washington 2-3 4-4 110.3 107.7 110.9 109.6
Washington St. 3-2 5-3 105.3 101.4 105.1 103.9
Oregon St. 0-5 2-6 92.6 89.3 90.8 90.9
             
South Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 3-2 5-3 122.7 119.1 123.1 121.6
Utah 4-1 7-1 121.7 116.2 120.9 119.6
UCLA 3-2 6-2 120.3 114.3 118.5 117.7
Arizona St. 2-3 4-4 116.0 110.8 115.0 113.9
Arizona 2-4 5-4 106.6 100.9 105.4 104.3
Colorado 1-4 4-5 105.9 100.7 104.3 103.6
             
Pac-12 Averages     113.0 108.4 112.3 111.2
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida 5-1 7-1 121.5 118.3 121.9 120.6
Tennessee 2-3 4-4 121.4 117.3 121.4 120.0
Georgia 3-3 5-3 116.9 109.8 115.5 114.1
Missouri 1-4 4-4 109.0 105.4 108.0 107.5
South Carolina 1-5 3-5 107.2 103.7 105.5 105.5
Kentucky 2-4 4-4 103.3 99.4 101.8 101.5
Vanderbilt 1-3 3-5 99.9 95.9 99.7 98.5
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 4-1 7-1 128.9 126.7 128.5 128.0
LSU 4-0 7-0 124.3 121.5 124.7 123.5
Ole Miss 4-1 7-2 122.7 117.7 120.8 120.4
Texas A&M 3-2 6-2 117.8 114.5 116.0 116.1
Arkansas 2-2 4-4 118.0 112.5 117.0 115.8
Mississippi St. 2-2 6-2 115.8 112.5 116.2 114.8
Auburn 1-4 4-4 113.8 111.2 112.8 112.6
             
SEC Averages     115.8 111.9 115.0 114.2
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 4-0 7-1 99.1 102.3 101.3 100.9
Georgia Southern 4-1 6-2 95.9 98.7 96.8 97.1
Arkansas St. 4-0 5-3 89.1 89.9 89.9 89.6
UL-Lafayette 2-1 3-4 83.6 86.7 84.1 84.8
Troy 1-3 2-6 80.7 82.1 82.2 81.7
Texas St. 1-2 2-5 80.4 83.8 79.9 81.4
South Alabama 1-2 3-4 74.7 80.7 75.6 77.0
Georgia St. 1-2 2-5 76.9 76.7 77.4 77.0
UL-Monroe 0-4 1-7 76.7 75.6 76.7 76.3
Idaho 2-3 3-5 73.1 78.5 74.4 75.3
New Mexico St. 1-3 1-7 68.8 70.3 69.0 69.4
             
Sun Belt Averages     81.7 84.1 82.5 82.8

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 115.8 111.9 115.0 114.2
2 Pac-12 113.0 108.4 112.3 111.2
3 Big 12 110.6 105.1 110.3 108.7
4 ACC 107.4 108.3 107.1 107.6
5 Big Ten 107.1 105.7 106.5 106.4
6 Indep. 102.5 104.2 103.3 103.4
7 AAC 95.6 99.1 96.4 97.0
8 MWC 91.8 93.6 91.4 92.3
9 MAC 87.8 91.6 89.0 89.5
10 CUSA 86.0 88.0 86.2 86.8
11 SBC 81.7 84.1 82.5 82.8

 

NCAA Playoffs
1 Ohio St.
2 LSU
3 Clemson
4 Baylor

 

Group of 5 Contenders For Automatic New Year’s Six Bowl Bid
# Team      
1 Memphis      
2 Houston      
3 Toleo      
4 Temple      
5 Navy  

 

Power 5 Conferences Bottom 10
# Team  
10 Iowa St.  
9 Purdue  
8 Vanderbilt  
7 Wake Forest  
6 Indiana  
5 Syracuse  
4 Maryland  
3 Rutgers  
2 Oregon St.  
1 Kansas  

 

FCS Top 10
# Team PiRate
1 Jacksonville St. 96.6
2 Dartmouth 92.8
3 Harvard 92.4
4 Chattanooga 91.3
5 Illinois St. 91.1
6 North Dakota St. 91.0
7 McNeese St. 90.7
8 Dayton 90.6
9 Richmond 90.3
10 Charleston Southern 89.4

 

This Week’s Games
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Tuesday, November 3        
Toledo Northern Illinois 12.3 9.4 10.1
         
Wednesday, November 4        
Bowling Green Ohio 21.2 21.7 22.4
         
Thursday, November 5        
Kent St. Buffalo -1.2 -5.0 -2.6
Western Michigan Ball St. 19.8 18.1 20.0
Appalachian St. Arkansas St. 13.0 15.4 14.4
Kansas St. Baylor -20.0 -26.6 -21.5
Missouri Mississippi St. -3.8 -4.1 -5.2
Fresno St. Nevada -5.1 -5.1 -6.5
         
Friday, November 6        
SMU Temple -22.2 -20.4 -23.3
UTEP Rice -4.2 -5.0 -4.8
San Jose St. BYU -12.8 -9.1 -13.8
         
Saturday, November 7        
Massachusetts Akron 4.1 0.8 3.5
Western Kentucky Florida Atlantic 27.6 24.6 28.4
Tulsa Central Florida 13.9 15.2 14.6
Northwestern Penn St. 0.2 0.0 -0.2
Purdue Illinois -0.4 0.8 -0.4
Florida Int’l. Charlotte 25.0 25.6 26.0
West Virginia Texas Tech 9.4 12.2 9.2
North Carolina Duke 10.9 10.8 10.3
Florida Vanderbilt 24.6 25.4 25.2
Georgia Kentucky 16.6 13.4 16.7
Pittsburgh Notre Dame -12.9 -9.1 -12.3
Louisville Syracuse 16.0 15.7 15.9
Boston College North Carolina St. -7.0 -5.2 -7.2
Colorado Stanford -13.6 -17.0 -14.9
Georgia St. Louisiana-Lafayette -4.2 -7.5 -4.2
Miami (O) Eastern Michigan 3.4 1.3 4.3
South Alabama Idaho 5.1 5.7 4.7
Wyoming Colorado St. -9.6 -6.0 -9.2
Miami (Fla) Virginia 4.9 7.5 6.3
Clemson Florida St. 11.5 12.0 12.9
Ole Miss Arkansas 7.7 8.2 6.8
Air Force Army 22.1 17.1 20.2
Washington St. Arizona St. -7.7 -6.4 -6.9
Indiana Iowa -11.5 -13.7 -12.8
Maryland Wisconsin -15.7 -17.6 -15.7
Michigan Rutgers 26.4 26.3 27.5
Oklahoma St. TCU -11.3 -5.2 -11.5
Louisiana Tech North Texas 32.6 27.2 33.0
Middle Tennessee Marshall 0.7 -1.6 -0.1
Houston Cincinnati 8.2 13.9 9.6
Troy Louisiana-Monroe 6.5 9.0 8.0
New Mexico Utah St. -9.1 -8.8 -10.9
Texas St. New Mexico St. 13.6 15.5 12.9
Tulane Connecticut -2.0 -2.7 -1.6
Tennessee South Carolina 17.2 16.6 18.9
Oregon St. UCLA -24.7 -22.0 -24.7
UNLV Hawaii 3.2 3.0 4.1
Memphis Navy 13.0 10.4 13.2
UTSA Old Dominion 7.0 5.1 8.8
Oklahoma Iowa St. 29.5 29.5 29.5
Nebraska Michigan St. -5.8 -4.4 -6.7
Washington Utah -8.4 -5.5 -7.0
Texas A&M Auburn 7.0 6.3 6.2
East Carolina South Florida 3.9 1.5 3.9
Alabama LSU 7.6 8.2 6.8
Texas Kansas 31.1 34.2 33.0
Ohio St. Minnesota 27.3 23.6 28.8
Oregon California 2.8 1.4 2.7
USC Arizona 19.1 21.2 20.7

 

Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
Cure AAC SBC Cincinnati vs. Arkansas St.
New Mexico MWC CUSA Colorado St. vs. Old Dominion
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC/BYU Washington St. vs. BYU
Camellia MAC SBC Ohio U vs. Georgia Southern
New Orleans CUSA SBC Southern Miss. vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
Miami Beach AAC CUSA Memphis vs. Western Kentucky
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Western Michigan vs. Utah St.
Boca Raton AAC MAC Temple vs. Bowling Green
Poinsettia MWC Army Boise St. vs. Washington *
GoDaddy MAC SBC Toledo vs. Appalachian St.
Bahamas CUSA MAC Louisiana Tech vs. Northern Illinois
Hawaii AAC MWC/BYU Tulsa vs. San Diego St.
St. Petersburg AAC CUSA South Florida vs. Marshall
Sun ACC Pac-12 North Carolina vs. Oregon
Heart of Dallas Big 12 CUSA Texas St. * vs. Rice
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Pittsburgh vs. Rutgers ^
Independence SEC ACC Akron * vs. Virginia Tech
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Miami (Fla) * vs. California
Military ACC AAC North Carolina St. vs. Navy
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Louisville vs. Buffalo *
Armed Forces Big Ten MWC Central Michigan * vs. Air Force
Russell Athletic ACC Big 12 Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma
Arizona CUSA MWC Middle Tennessee vs. Nevada
Texas Big 12 SEC Texas Tech vs. Mississippi St.
Birmingham AAC SEC East Carolina vs. Auburn
Belk ACC SEC Florida St. vs. Georgia
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Penn St. vs. Kentucky
Peach N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 Iowa vs. LSU
Cotton Playoff Playoff Ohio St. vs. Alabama
Orange Playoff Playoff Clemson vs. Oklahoma St.
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan vs. UCLA
Ouback Big Ten SEC Northwestern vs. Tennessee
Citrus Big Ten SEC Wisconsin vs. Ole Miss
Sugar Big 12 SEC TCU vs. Florida
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan St. vs. Stanford
Fiesta N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 Utah vs. Houston
TaxSlayer ACC/Big Ten SEC Duke vs. Texas A&M
Liberty Big 12 SEC West Virginia vs. Arkansas
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Baylor vs. USC
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Kansas St. vs. Arizona St.
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Ohio St. vs. Clemson
           
* = At-large selection due to contracted conference not having an eligible team for this slot
^ = Rutgers qualifies for a bowl at 5-7 with highest APR score of 5-7 teams

September 22, 2015

College Football Preview: September 24-26, 2015

It was an interesting Week 3 in the college football world with Ole Miss topping off an incredible day by topping Alabama in Tuscaloosa.  Ohio State and TCU looked very beatable in narrow wins over Northern Illinois and SMU, while Georgia and Notre Dame pulled off convincing wins.

We start to ruminate about the playoff teams for this year, and you will see our first look at who we believe are the leaders in the clubhouse.  One of our readers, Gary in Toronto, has sent us a comment asking who we believe would have been the four playoff teams in recent years before the playoffs were real.  Gary, we did this one better.  We calculated who we thought would have made the playoffs all the way back to 1969, when we first began compiling ratings.

What follows is not who WE thought should have been in the playoffs; this is who we believe the COMMITTEE of the time period would have selected based on the same criteria they use today, plus our personal belief that politics do play a part.  Thus, deserving undefeated teams like Miami of Ohio and Toledo in the 1970’s, and maybe even Dartmouth in 1970 would have been excluded for one and two-loss teams from the power leagues.  For you trivia buffs, Dartmouth was actually a ranked team in 1970, the last Ivy League team to finish the season ranked in the then top 20 (Yale was the last Ivy League team to appear in the weekly rankings in 1972).

Here they are:

2013: 1-Florida St.,  2-Auburn,  3-Michigan St., 4-Alabama
2012: 1-Alabama, 2-Notre Dame, 3-Oregon, 4-Stanford
2011: 1-LSU, 2-Alabama, 3-Oklahoma St., 4-Oregon
2010: 1-Auburn, 2-Oregon, 3-TCU, 4-Stanford
2009: 1-Alabama, 2-Texas, 3-Florida, 4-Boise St.
2008: 1-Florida, 2-Oklahoma, 3-USC, 4-Utah
2007: 1-LSU, 2-Ohio St., 3-Kansas, 4-West Virginia
2006: 1-Ohio St., 2-Florida, 3-Michigan, 4-USC
2005: 1-Texas, 2-USC, 3-Penn St., 4-Virginia Tech
2004: 1-USC, 2-Oklahoma, 3-Auburn, 4-Utah
2003: 1-LSU, 2-Oklahoma, 3-USC, 4-Michigan
2002: 1-Ohio St., 2-Miami, 3-Georgia, 4-USC
2001: 1-Miami, 2-Nebraska, 3-Oregon, 4-Colorado
2000: 1-Oklahoma, 2-Florida St., 3-Miami, 4-Washington
1999: 1-Florida St., 2-Virginia Tech, 3-Nebraska, 4-Kansas St.
1998: 1-Tennessee. 2-Florida St., 3-Ohio St., 4-Kansas St.
1997: 1-Nebraska, 2-Michigan, 3-Florida St., 4-Tennessee
1996: 1-Florida St., 2-Florida, 3-Ohio St., 4-Arizona St.
1995: 1-Nebraska, 2-Florida, 3-Tennessee, 4-Ohio St.
1994: 1-Nebraska, 2-Penn St., 3-Miami, 4-Colorado
1993: 1-Florida St., 2-Notre Dame, 3-West Virginia, 4-Nebraska
1992: 1-Alabama. 2-Miami, 3-Texas A&M, 4-Florida St.
1991: 1-Miami, 2-Washington, 3-Alabama, 4-Michigan
1990: 1: Georgia Tech, 2-Colorado, 3-Miami, 4-Washington
1989: 1-Miami, 2-Notre Dame, 3-Colorado, 4-Tennessee
1988: 1-Notre Dame, 2-West Virginia, 3-Miami, 4-Florida St.
1987: 1-Miami, 2-Oklahoma 3-Florida St., 4-Syracuse
1986: 1-Miami, 2-Penn St., 3-Oklahoma, 4-Michigan
1985: 1-Oklahoma, 2-Penn St., 3-Michigan, 4-Miami
1984: 1-BYU, 2-Washington, 3-Nebraska, 4-Boston College
1983: 1-Nebraska, 2-Texas, 3-Miami, 4-Auburn
1982: 1-Georgia, 2-Penn St., 3-Nebraska, 4-SMU
1981: 1-Clemson, 2-Pittsburgh, 3-Georgia, 4-Penn St.
1980: 1-Georgia, 2-Pittsburgh, 3-Notre Dame, 4-Nebraska
1979: 1-Alabama, 2-USC, 3-Ohio St., 4-Oklahoma
1978: 1-Penn St., 2-USC, 3-Alabama, 4-Oklahoma
1977: 1-Texas, 2-Notre Dame, 3-Alabama, 4-Michigan
1976: 1-Pittsburgh, 2-Michigan, 3-Georgia, 4-USC
1975: 1-Ohio St., 2-Alabama, 3-Oklahoma, 4-Arizona St.
1974: 1-Alabama, 2-Ohio St., 3-USC, 4-Michigan
1973: 1-Notre Dame, 2-Alabama, 3-Penn St., 4-Ohio St.
1972: 1-USC, 2-Oklahoma, 3-Texas, 4-Michigan
1971: 1-Nebraska, 2-Oklahoma, 3-Alabama, 4-Michigan
1970: 1-Texas, 2-Nebraska, 3-Tennessee, 4-Notre Dame
1969: 1-Texas, 2-Penn St., 3-USC, 4-Missouri

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Ohio St. 133.4 124.0 134.3 130.6
2 Ole Miss 130.2 123.8 128.8 127.6
3 LSU 125.8 121.8 125.6 124.4
4 TCU 127.4 117.2 128.5 124.4
5 Alabama 125.0 123.3 124.6 124.3
6 Baylor 123.7 119.8 124.2 122.6
7 Notre Dame 123.4 119.4 123.9 122.2
8 Georgia 124.4 116.8 123.7 121.6
9 USC 121.5 118.2 121.9 120.5
10 Oklahoma 121.1 118.4 121.4 120.3
11 Georgia Tech 123.0 115.0 122.6 120.2
12 Oregon 122.8 114.8 122.2 119.9
13 UCLA 122.6 116.1 120.5 119.7
14 Texas A&M 120.4 118.6 119.4 119.5
15 Michigan St. 121.2 115.3 121.1 119.2
16 Tennessee 120.6 116.4 120.4 119.1
17 Stanford 118.4 117.2 118.6 118.1
18 California 118.1 113.1 118.6 116.6
19 Auburn 116.9 114.9 115.9 115.9
20 Clemson 115.3 116.5 115.2 115.7
21 Utah 117.8 112.1 117.0 115.6
22 Arkansas 117.4 111.1 116.3 114.9
23 Florida St. 114.9 115.3 113.6 114.6
24 Virginia Tech 115.4 111.8 115.8 114.3
25 North Carolina 113.7 113.7 113.3 113.6
26 West Virginia 115.0 109.6 114.4 113.0
27 Oklahoma St. 112.0 112.6 112.7 112.4
28 Arizona St. 114.7 109.4 113.2 112.4
29 Arizona 114.9 107.8 113.0 111.9
30 Mississippi St. 113.4 108.9 113.4 111.9
31 Michigan 112.8 108.9 112.1 111.3
32 Wisconsin 111.2 112.0 110.2 111.1
33 Florida 111.8 108.4 111.2 110.5
34 Missouri 111.4 108.5 110.5 110.1
35 Boise St. 112.2 106.7 111.5 110.1
36 Nebraska 110.9 108.3 110.5 109.9
37 North Carolina St. 109.3 111.4 108.3 109.7
38 Miami 109.0 109.9 109.4 109.4
39 BYU 108.9 107.0 110.3 108.7
40 Minnesota 109.3 107.5 109.1 108.6
41 Temple 107.2 109.4 108.5 108.4
42 Louisville 107.2 109.8 107.4 108.1
43 Texas Tech 111.0 101.6 110.8 107.8
44 Northwestern 106.8 107.8 106.8 107.1
45 Penn St. 105.7 107.8 105.9 106.5
46 Texas 107.1 105.8 106.6 106.5
47 Illinois 107.2 104.8 106.2 106.1
48 Memphis 105.2 105.1 106.7 105.7
49 South Carolina 107.3 103.6 105.8 105.6
50 Kentucky 106.3 102.9 105.6 104.9
51 Pittsburgh 103.7 105.8 104.9 104.8
52 Kansas St. 109.6 96.3 108.2 104.7
53 Colorado 105.8 101.5 105.1 104.1
54 Washington 103.7 101.9 104.1 103.2
55 Iowa 101.8 104.7 102.5 103.0
56 Duke 102.4 103.0 103.0 102.8
57 Cincinnati 101.8 102.9 102.8 102.5
58 Boston College 101.2 106.1 99.5 102.3
59 Virginia 103.0 100.1 102.5 101.9
60 Houston 97.7 105.8 100.4 101.3
61 Western Kentucky 100.9 98.5 102.0 100.5
62 Louisiana Tech 101.3 98.2 102.1 100.5
63 Navy 98.3 101.4 98.8 99.5
64 Toledo 99.7 97.7 100.6 99.3
65 Middle Tennessee 98.3 98.0 98.0 98.1
66 Purdue 98.8 98.2 96.8 97.9
67 Bowling Green 95.3 99.8 97.4 97.5
68 Wake Forest 95.5 100.2 94.5 96.7
69 Air Force 94.7 99.9 94.5 96.4
70 Rutgers 98.0 94.9 96.1 96.3
71 Washington St. 98.5 93.3 96.7 96.2
72 Marshall 95.8 95.6 96.4 95.9
73 Vanderbilt 98.2 92.2 97.1 95.8
74 San Diego St. 93.7 98.9 94.7 95.8
75 Syracuse 94.4 98.7 93.8 95.6
76 Georgia Southern 94.5 96.6 95.0 95.4
77 Utah St. 95.9 94.4 96.0 95.4
78 Indiana 94.8 96.4 94.6 95.3
79 Northern Illinois 94.2 96.8 94.6 95.2
80 Western Michigan 94.6 95.1 95.5 95.1
81 Colorado St. 96.3 93.8 94.8 95.0
82 Maryland 95.3 93.0 94.2 94.2
83 Iowa St. 95.7 92.4 94.6 94.2
84 Tulsa 91.5 97.4 92.9 93.9
85 Ohio 91.5 96.4 93.2 93.7
86 Appalachian St. 92.0 95.0 94.1 93.7
87 Hawaii 91.8 94.0 92.4 92.7
88 Nevada 91.4 95.3 90.9 92.5
89 Oregon St. 92.8 91.1 91.7 91.9
90 East Carolina 90.0 94.5 90.1 91.5
91 Central Florida 89.4 93.2 90.8 91.1
92 Florida International 89.3 92.1 91.2 90.9
93 San Jose St. 90.2 92.9 89.5 90.9
94 Arkansas St. 90.5 90.3 91.5 90.8
95 New Mexico 90.6 91.4 90.0 90.7
96 Fresno St. 88.1 95.1 87.4 90.2
97 South Florida 88.1 94.9 87.5 90.2
98 Rice 87.8 92.6 88.6 89.7
99 SMU 88.1 92.0 88.2 89.4
100 Massachusetts 87.5 91.1 89.1 89.2
101 Tulane 87.9 90.3 86.0 88.1
102 Buffalo 83.8 91.3 86.4 87.2
103 UL-Lafayette 85.3 89.4 85.7 86.8
104 Southern Mississippi 86.5 87.0 85.5 86.3
105 Ball St. 84.9 87.8 85.8 86.2
106 Akron 83.0 89.5 84.4 85.6
107 Central Michigan 83.0 88.9 84.9 85.6
108 Texas St. 83.8 87.6 83.5 85.0
109 Kent St. 83.2 86.0 83.9 84.4
110 Connecticut 81.8 87.9 82.0 83.9
111 Florida Atlantic 82.0 86.2 82.6 83.6
112 Old Dominion 80.7 88.0 79.8 82.8
113 UTEP 81.8 84.8 81.6 82.7
114 North Texas 79.9 86.4 80.4 82.2
115 South Alabama 77.9 85.7 79.7 81.1
116 Army 76.9 87.6 78.2 80.9
117 UL-Monroe 81.7 78.3 81.0 80.3
118 UNLV 79.2 81.6 79.9 80.2
119 Miami (O) 76.6 83.0 76.7 78.8
120 UT-San Antonio 77.2 80.7 78.3 78.7
121 Eastern Michigan 75.0 84.9 75.0 78.3
122 Wyoming 78.0 80.0 76.2 78.1
123 Kansas 78.9 72.6 76.6 76.0
124 Troy 75.3 75.0 77.0 75.8
125 Georgia St. 75.7 74.5 75.4 75.2
126 New Mexico St. 73.6 74.8 73.5 74.0
127 Idaho 70.6 79.1 72.1 73.9
128 Charlotte 69.0 71.0 68.5 69.5

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Temple 1-0 3-0 107.2 109.4 108.5 108.4
Cincinnati 0-1 2-1 101.8 102.9 102.8 102.5
East Carolina 0-1 1-2 90.0 94.5 90.1 91.5
Central Florida 0-0 0-3 89.4 93.2 90.8 91.1
South Florida 0-0 1-2 88.1 94.9 87.5 90.2
Connecticut 0-0 2-1 81.8 87.9 82.0 83.9
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 0-0 3-0 105.2 105.1 106.7 105.7
Houston 0-0 2-0 97.7 105.8 100.4 101.3
Navy 1-0 2-0 98.3 101.4 98.8 99.5
Tulsa 0-0 2-1 91.5 97.4 92.9 93.9
SMU 0-0 1-2 88.1 92.0 88.2 89.4
Tulane 0-0 1-2 87.9 90.3 86.0 88.1
             
AAC Averages     93.9 97.9 94.6 95.5
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 1-0 3-0 115.3 116.5 115.2 115.7
Florida St. 1-0 3-0 114.9 115.3 113.6 114.6
North Carolina St. 0-0 3-0 109.3 111.4 108.3 109.7
Louisville 0-1 0-3 107.2 109.8 107.4 108.1
Boston College 0-1 2-1 101.2 106.1 99.5 102.3
Wake Forest 0-1 2-1 95.5 100.2 94.5 96.7
Syracuse 1-0 3-0 94.4 98.7 93.8 95.6
             
Coastal Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia Tech 0-0 2-1 123.0 115.0 122.6 120.2
Virginia Tech 0-0 2-1 115.4 111.8 115.8 114.3
North Carolina 0-0 2-1 113.7 113.7 113.3 113.6
Miami 0-0 3-0 109.0 109.9 109.4 109.4
Pittsburgh 0-0 2-1 103.7 105.8 104.9 104.8
Duke 0-0 2-1 102.4 103.0 103.0 102.8
Virginia 0-0 1-2 103.0 100.1 102.5 101.9
             
ACC Averages     107.7 108.4 107.4 107.8
             
Big 12 Conference
  Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
TCU 0-0 3-0 127.4 117.2 128.5 124.4
Baylor 0-0 2-0 123.7 119.8 124.2 122.6
Oklahoma 0-0 3-0 121.1 118.4 121.4 120.3
West Virginia 0-0 2-0 115.0 109.6 114.4 113.0
Oklahoma St. 0-0 3-0 112.0 112.6 112.7 112.4
Texas 0-0 1-2 107.1 105.8 106.6 106.5
Texas Tech 0-0 3-0 111.0 101.6 110.8 107.8
Kansas St. 0-0 3-0 109.6 96.3 108.2 104.7
Iowa St. 0-0 1-2 95.7 92.4 94.6 94.2
Kansas 0-0 0-2 78.9 72.6 76.6 76.0
             
Big 12 Averages     110.2 104.6 109.8 108.2
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 0-0 3-0 133.4 124.0 134.3 130.6
Michigan St. 0-0 3-0 121.2 115.3 121.1 119.2
Michigan 0-0 2-1 112.8 108.9 112.1 111.3
Penn St. 1-0 2-1 105.7 107.8 105.9 106.5
Rutgers 0-1 1-2 98.0 94.9 96.1 96.3
Indiana 0-0 3-0 94.8 96.4 94.6 95.3
Maryland 0-0 2-1 95.3 93.0 94.2 94.2
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 0-0 2-1 111.2 112.0 110.2 111.1
Nebraska 0-0 1-2 110.9 108.3 110.5 109.9
Minnesota 0-0 2-1 109.3 107.5 109.1 108.6
Northwestern 0-0 3-0 106.8 107.8 106.8 107.1
Illinois 0-0 2-1 107.2 104.8 106.2 106.1
Iowa 0-0 3-0 101.8 104.7 102.5 103.0
Purdue 0-0 1-2 98.8 98.2 96.8 97.9
             
Big Ten Averages     107.7 106.0 107.2 106.9
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 1-0 2-1 100.9 98.5 102.0 100.5
Middle Tennessee 1-0 2-1 98.3 98.0 98.0 98.1
Marshall 0-0 2-1 95.8 95.6 96.4 95.9
Florida International 0-0 2-1 89.3 92.1 91.2 90.9
Florida Atlantic 0-0 0-3 82.0 86.2 82.6 83.6
Old Dominion 0-0 2-1 80.7 88.0 79.8 82.8
Charlotte 0-1 2-1 69.0 71.0 68.5 69.5
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 0-1 1-2 101.3 98.2 102.1 100.5
Rice 1-0 2-1 87.8 92.6 88.6 89.7
Southern Mississippi 0-0 2-1 86.5 87.0 85.5 86.3
UTEP 0-0 1-2 81.8 84.8 81.6 82.7
North Texas 0-1 0-2 79.9 86.4 80.4 82.2
UT-San Antonio 0-0 0-3 77.2 80.7 78.3 78.7
             
CUSA Averages     87.0 89.2 87.3 87.8
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   3-0 123.4 119.4 123.9 122.2
BYU   2-1 108.9 107.0 110.3 108.7
Army   0-3 76.9 87.6 78.2 80.9
             
Independents Averages     103.1 104.7 104.1 104.0
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Bowling Green 0-0 1-2 95.3 99.8 97.4 97.5
Ohio 0-0 3-0 91.5 96.4 93.2 93.7
Massachusetts 0-0 0-2 87.5 91.1 89.1 89.2
Buffalo 0-0 2-1 83.8 91.3 86.4 87.2
Akron 0-0 1-2 83.0 89.5 84.4 85.6
Kent St. 0-0 1-2 83.2 86.0 83.9 84.4
Miami (O) 0-0 1-2 76.6 83.0 76.7 78.8
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 0-0 2-0 99.7 97.7 100.6 99.3
Northern Illinois 0-0 2-1 94.2 96.8 94.6 95.2
Western Michigan 0-0 1-2 94.6 95.1 95.5 95.1
Ball St. 1-0 2-1 84.9 87.8 85.8 86.2
Central Michigan 0-0 1-2 83.0 88.9 84.9 85.6
Eastern Michigan 0-1 1-2 75.0 84.9 75.0 78.3
             
MAC Averages     87.1 91.4 88.3 88.9
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 0-0 2-1 112.2 106.7 111.5 110.1
Air Force 1-0 2-1 94.7 99.9 94.5 96.4
Utah St. 0-0 1-2 95.9 94.4 96.0 95.4
Colorado St. 0-0 1-2 96.3 93.8 94.8 95.0
New Mexico 0-0 1-2 90.6 91.4 90.0 90.7
Wyoming 0-0 0-3 78.0 80.0 76.2 78.1
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 0-0 1-2 93.7 98.9 94.7 95.8
Hawaii 0-0 2-1 91.8 94.0 92.4 92.7
Nevada 0-0 1-2 91.4 95.3 90.9 92.5
San Jose St. 0-1 1-2 90.2 92.9 89.5 90.9
Fresno St. 0-0 1-2 88.1 95.1 87.4 90.2
UNLV 0-0 0-3 79.2 81.6 79.9 80.2
             
MWC Averages     91.8 93.7 91.5 92.3
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oregon 0-0 2-1 122.8 114.8 122.2 119.9
Stanford 1-0 2-1 118.4 117.2 118.6 118.1
California 0-0 3-0 118.1 113.1 118.6 116.6
Washington 0-0 2-1 103.7 101.9 104.1 103.2
Washington St. 0-0 2-1 98.5 93.3 96.7 96.2
Oregon St. 0-0 2-1 92.8 91.1 91.7 91.9
             
South Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 0-1 2-1 121.5 118.2 121.9 120.5
UCLA 0-0 3-0 122.6 116.1 120.5 119.7
Utah 0-0 3-0 117.8 112.1 117.0 115.6
Arizona St. 0-0 2-1 114.7 109.4 113.2 112.4
Arizona 0-0 3-0 114.9 107.8 113.0 111.9
Colorado 0-0 2-1 105.8 101.5 105.1 104.1
             
Pac-12 Averages     112.6 108.0 111.9 110.9
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 2-0 3-0 124.4 116.8 123.7 121.6
Tennessee 0-0 2-1 120.6 116.4 120.4 119.1
Florida 1-0 3-0 111.8 108.4 111.2 110.5
Missouri 0-0 3-0 111.4 108.5 110.5 110.1
South Carolina 0-2 1-2 107.3 103.6 105.8 105.6
Kentucky 1-1 2-1 106.3 102.9 105.6 104.9
Vanderbilt 0-1 1-2 98.2 92.2 97.1 95.8
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ole Miss 1-0 3-0 130.2 123.8 128.8 127.6
LSU 2-0 2-0 125.8 121.8 125.6 124.4
Alabama 0-1 2-1 125.0 123.3 124.6 124.3
Texas A&M 0-0 3-0 120.4 118.6 119.4 119.5
Auburn 0-1 2-1 116.9 114.9 115.9 115.9
Arkansas 0-0 1-2 117.4 111.1 116.3 114.9
Mississippi St. 0-1 2-1 113.4 108.9 113.4 111.9
             
SEC Averages     116.4 112.2 115.6 114.7
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia Southern 0-0 2-1 94.5 96.6 95.0 95.4
Appalachian St. 0-0 1-1 92.0 95.0 94.1 93.7
Arkansas St. 0-0 1-2 90.5 90.3 91.5 90.8
UL-Lafayette 0-0 1-1 85.3 89.4 85.7 86.8
Texas St. 0-0 1-2 83.8 87.6 83.5 85.0
South Alabama 0-0 2-1 77.9 85.7 79.7 81.1
UL-Monroe 0-0 1-1 81.7 78.3 81.0 80.3
Troy 0-0 1-2 75.3 75.0 77.0 75.8
Georgia St. 1-0 1-2 75.7 74.5 75.4 75.2
New Mexico St. 0-1 0-3 73.6 74.8 73.5 74.0
Idaho 0-0 1-2 70.6 79.1 72.1 73.9
             
Sun Belt Averages     81.9 84.2 82.6 82.9
PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 116.4 112.2 115.6 114.7
2 Pac-12 112.6 108.0 111.9 110.9
3 Big 12 110.2 104.6 109.8 108.2
4 ACC 107.7 108.4 107.4 107.8
5 Big Ten 107.7 106.0 107.2 106.9
6 Independents 103.1 104.7 104.1 104.0
7 AAC 93.9 97.9 94.6 95.5
8 MWC 91.8 93.7 91.5 92.3
9 MAC 87.1 91.4 88.3 88.9
10 CUSA 87.0 89.2 87.3 87.8
11 Sun Belt 81.9 84.2 82.6 82.9

 

Group of 5 Contenders For Automatic New Year’s Six Bowl Bid
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Boise St. 112.2 106.7 111.5 110.1
2 BYU 108.9 107.0 110.3 108.7
3 Temple 107.2 109.4 108.5 108.4
4 Memphis 105.2 105.1 106.7 105.7
5 Cincinnati 101.8 102.9 102.8 102.5
6 Houston 97.7 105.8 100.4 101.3
7 Western Kentucky 100.9 98.5 102.0 100.5
8 Louisiana Tech 101.3 98.2 102.1 100.5
9 Navy 98.3 101.4 98.8 99.5
10 Toledo 99.7 97.7 100.6 99.3

 

Power 5 Conferences Bottom 10
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
10 Wake Forest 95.5 100.2 94.5 96.7
9 Rutgers 98.0 94.9 96.1 96.3
8 Washington St. 98.5 93.3 96.7 96.2
7 Vanderbilt 98.2 92.2 97.1 95.8
6 Syracuse 94.4 98.7 93.8 95.6
5 Indiana 94.8 96.4 94.6 95.3
4 Maryland 95.3 93.0 94.2 94.2
3 Iowa St. 95.7 92.4 94.6 94.2
2 Oregon St. 92.8 91.1 91.7 91.9
1 Kansas 78.9 72.6 76.6 76.0

 

FCS Top 10
# Team PiRate
1 Jacksonville St. 97.1
2 South Dakota St. 94.1
3 North Dakota St. 92.3
4 Coastal Carolina 89.5
5 Chattanooga 89.0
6 Harvard 88.6
7 Illinois St. 88.2
8 Northern Iowa 88.1
9 Portland St. 87.8
10 James Madison 87.5

 

PiRate Speculation on Playoff Teams

NCAA Playoffs
1 Ohio St.
2 Ole Miss
3 TCU
4 Notre Dame

 

This Week’s Games
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Thursday, September 24        
Memphis Cincinnati 6.4 5.2 6.9
         
Friday, September 25   PiRate  Mean  Bias
Virginia Boise St. -5.7 -3.1 -5.5
Oregon St. Stanford -22.6 -23.1 -23.9
         
Saturday, September 26   PiRate  Mean  Bias
Connecticut Navy -14.0 -11.0 -14.3
Duke Georgia Tech -18.1 -9.5 -17.1
East Carolina Virginia Tech -22.4 -14.3 -22.7
Michigan BYU 6.9 4.9 4.8
Michigan St. Central Michigan 40.2 28.4 38.2
Purdue Bowling Green 6.0 0.9 1.9
Rutgers Kansas 21.6 20.8 22.0
South Carolina Central Florida 20.9 13.4 18.0
Syracuse LSU -28.4 -20.1 -28.8
Nebraska Southern Miss. 27.4 24.3 28.0
Wake Forest Indiana 3.2 6.3 2.4
Boston College Northern Illinois 10.0 12.3 7.9
Arkansas (Arlington, TX) Texas A&M -3.0 -7.5 -3.1
Louisiana Tech Florida Int’l 15.0 9.1 13.9
West Virginia Maryland 21.7 18.6 22.2
Baylor Rice 37.9 29.2 37.6
Arizona UCLA -4.7 -5.3 -4.5
Arizona St. USC -3.8 -5.8 -5.7
Oregon Utah 8.0 5.7 8.2
Wyoming New Mexico -10.1 -8.9 -11.3
Florida Tennessee -5.8 -5.0 -6.2
Houston Texas St. 16.4 20.7 19.4
Notre Dame Massachusetts 38.9 31.3 37.8
Ohio St. Western Michigan 41.8 31.9 41.8
Penn St. San Diego St. 16.0 12.9 15.2
Iowa North Texas 24.9 21.3 25.1
Minnesota Ohio U 20.8 14.1 18.9
Texas Oklahoma St. -1.9 -3.8 -3.1
Old Dominion Appalachian St. -8.8 -4.5 -11.8
Western Kentucky Miami (O) 26.8 18.0 27.8
Buffalo Nevada -3.6 0.0 -0.5
Kent St. Marshall -10.1 -7.1 -10.0
Alabama UL-Monroe 46.3 48.0 46.6
Illinois Middle Tennessee 11.9 9.8 11.2
Texas Tech TCU -13.4 -12.6 -14.7
Washington California -11.4 -8.2 -11.5
Eastern Michigan Army 0.6 -0.2 -0.7
Ole Miss Vanderbilt 35.0 34.6 34.7
Charlotte Florida Atlantic -10.5 -12.7 -11.6
UT-San Antonio Colorado St. -16.6 -10.6 -14.3
UL-Lafayette Akron 5.3 1.9 4.3
Toledo Arkansas St. 12.2 10.4 12.1
Kentucky Missouri -2.1 -2.6 -1.9
Auburn Mississippi St. 6.5 9.0 5.5
Northwestern Ball St. 24.4 22.5 23.5
South Alabama North Carolina St. -28.4 -22.7 -25.6
Wisconsin Hawaii 23.4 22.0 21.8
Idaho Georgia Southern -20.9 -14.5 -19.9
San Jose St. Fresno St. 4.6 0.3 0.6
         
         
FBS vs. FCS Week 4 PiRate    
Georgia Southern U 50    
North Carolina Delaware 35    
Colorado Nicholls St. 43    
Louisville Samford 23    
SMU James Madison 7    
UTEP Incarnate Word 18    
UNLV Idaho St. 15    

 

September 15, 2015

PiRate Ratings College Football Preview For Week 3–September 17-19, 2015

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:10 pm

Beginner’s Luck
Two weeks into the season still leaves a lot of room for change, but the PiRates have noticed a novel theme in the college football season.  Most of the first-time head coaches appear to be top-rate this year.  Let’s take a look at the top five new hires and what their new teams have done.

Coach: Tom Herman, Houston
Former Position: Offensive coordinator at Ohio State
The Cougars are 2-0 with a win at Louisville.  UH has not been this balanced on offense since Bill Yeoman’s veer teams of the 1960’s and 1970’s moved the ball up and down the field.  Houston now becomes one of three or four American Athletic Conference teams as a legitimate contender for the Group of 5’s automatic bid to a New Year’s 6 Bowl.

Coach: Chad Morris, SMU
Former Position: Offensive coordinator at Clemson
The Mustangs 1-11 season in 2014 left this program in the same shape it was coming out of the Death Penalty of the 1980’s.  Morris immediately brought life back to the program, and SMU competed toe to toe for one half against Baylor and then followed that up with an impressive win over North Texas.  Against the same two teams last year, the Mustangs were outscored 88-6.  They topped 25 points just once all year, averaging just 11 points per game.  SMU has scored 52 points in their first two games this year.

Coach: Philip Montgomery, Tulsa
Former Position: Offensive coordinator at Baylor
Tulsa historically has been a football power at the level just below the big time, frequently peaking with teams capable of competing head to head against big time conference foes.  Glenn Dobbs led TU to glory in the early 1940’s, and then he returned as head coach to guide the  Golden Hurricane to become the first college team to throw the ball all over the field 40-50 times a game back in the early 1960’s.  Adding legendary great Sammy Baugh as an assistant coach made Tulsa the greatest passing team of all time up to that point in 1964.  Later, Tulsa produced some power teams under Coach John Cooper and then for a few years under Todd Graham.
Now, it looks like TU has found their next great coach in Montgomery.  The Golden Hurricane explosive offense has returned with outbursts of 40+ points in both games so far.  Tulsa could very easily return to a bowl this year after barely finishing ahead of SMU last year in the AAC West standings.

Coach: Pat Narduzzi, Pittsburgh
Former Position: Defensive coordinator at Michigan State
Narduzzi’s personal touch on this team’s defense showed up in force last week when Pitt held Akron to 110 total yards (47 rush, 63 pass), a year after the Zips defeated Pitt 21-10.  The Panthers looked about the same offensively as last year, when they won six games and earned a bid to the Armed Forces Bowl.  They did not shine on the attack side, but they made no mistakes and controlled the line of scrimmage for most of the afternoon.  It will be interesting to see how the Panthers fare at Iowa this week; Iowa edged Pitt 24-20 last year.

Coach: Mike Bobo, Colorado State
Former Position: Offensive coordinator at Georgia
Colorado State lost a great coach when Jim McElwain took the Florida job.  So, the Rams did what they had done before–find the best SEC offensive coordinator they could get.  Bobo took the bait and left Athens, Georgia for Fort Collins.  CSU went head to head with Big Ten contender Minnesota, losing in overtime to fall to 1-1 with a pivotal game against rival Colorado this week at Invesco Field in Denver.  Bobo’s offense was criticized at times when he was at Georgia, but the Rams’ offense has been effective on the ground and through the air.  Look for CSU to return to a bowl this season.

Key Games
Week three brings the college football enough important games to stay glued to the sofa in the man-cave all day.  Let’s look at the best matchups of the week.

(times given are EDT)

Air Force at Michigan State: 12 Noon on ABC
After taking down Oregon, the Spartans must avoid a letdown against the option offense of the Air Force Academy.  MSU should win this game by double digits, but if they rest on their laurels this week, the Falcons could keep this game close.  It is worth watching just to see how Sparty defends the option and if their offense comes out flat or ready to play.

Northwestern at Duke: 12:30 PM on ESPN3
Two teams with identical 2-0 records to open the season, and both with two impressive wins, face off in Durham.  Duke is now 21-8 in their last 29 games.  Northwestern looks like a team with the potential to be a top contender for the Big Ten West title this year, controlling Stanford for four quarters and then easily beating FCS Eastern Illinois last week.  Duke is trying to earn a bowl bid for the fourth consecutive season and could be enjoying their best three-year period of football since 1960-61-62.  The winner of this game goes from pretender to contender in their respective league.

Auburn at LSU: 3:30 PM on CBS
What happened with Auburn last week?  The Tigers looked like a lucky team to escape Jacksonville State with a win.  They did not look all that fantastic for half their game against Louisville, and then when Louisville lost to Houston in game two, the win over the Cardinals did not look impressive.
LSU mauled Mississippi State for 20 minutes, before the Bulldogs looked like the better team for the final 40 minutes.  It cannot be discounted that the Tigers were at a disadvantage having had their first game cancelled, while State played a game.

The loser of this game will have a lot to answer for.  If Auburn wins on the road, the rabid LSU fans will begin to campaign for a new direction, especially if the Bayou Bengals cannot pass the ball.  If LSU wins but not impressively and unable to do much but run the ball, the fans might still campaign for change.  If LSU wins impressively and shows life in their passing game, then the Auburn fans will begin to wonder why this team is underachieving so.

Georgia Tech at Notre Dame: 3:30 PM on NBC
This game really intrigues us.  Brian Kelly’s teams generally control their opponents’ running game and try to slow down the passing game.  Only when the other team has the better horses does a Kelly-coached team give up a lot of rushing yards.

Can Georgia Tech’s spread option attack find enough success to win on the road against a Top 10 team?  Better yet, can the Yellow Jackets’ defense hold the Irish under 30 points?  Even without their best quarterback and tight end, Notre Dame has the talent to continue moving the ball and scoring points.  The winner of this game deserves consideration in the Top 5.

Nebraska at Miami: 3:30 PM on ABC or ESPN2 (by region)
Al Golden has a chance to win major Brownie points in the pursuit of keeping his employment in Coral Gables.  If the Hurricanes beat Nebraska Saturday, they will be 3-0 for just the second time since 2004, when they were last ranked near the top.

Nebraska’s loss to BYU doesn’t look so bad now that BYU beat Boise State, but the Cornhuskers are a team in transition, and a win on the road in the heat and humidity of South Florida may be asking too much of this team.

California at Texas: 7:30 PM on Fox
This game became a lot more interesting in the past 24 hours, because Texas fired controversial Athletics’ Director Steve Patterson thanks in part to heavy booster complaints.  It already was going to be interesting if for no other reason than to see if Cal is a contender or pretender in the Pac-12 North.  The Bears might be on the verge of challenging Oregon for division supremacy, and this game along with the primetime game will help solve that riddle.

Florida at Kentucky: 7:30 PM on SEC network/Watchespn
What you were supposed to be looking at when these two teams squared off was a battle for 5th place in the SEC East.  Now, who knows?  This could be for a top three spot in the division.  Kentucky won at South Carolina last week to improve to 2-0.  Florida has two wins over lackluster competition, but the Gators have historically started the season 2-0 with wins over mediocre or worse teams.  The winner of this game will still be considered an also-ran in the league, but at 3-0, the winner will be halfway to bowl eligibility.  You may ask, “when is the last time Kentucky began a season 3-0 with at least one of those wins in conference play?”

The answer is: 1964

Stanford at USC: 8:00 PM on ABC
Stanford did absolutely nothing in their opener against Northwestern and then looked pedestrian last week against Cental Florida.  Meanwhile, USC looked like the Trojans of old in blowout wins over Arkansas State and Idaho.  This game will reveal whether USC is ready to contend for national honors once again and whether Stanford is an also-ran in the Pac-12.

Ole Miss at Alabama: 9:15 PM on ESPN
This is the one game not to miss this week.  Even if you don’t like the SEC, this should be a rock’em, sock’em battle.  Alabama’s dreams of having a perfect dream season in 2014 ended in Oxford against the Rebels last year.  At the time Ole Miss appeared to be the second best team in the nation and second best team in their state.  The Rebels’ offense was too inconsistent, and Ole Miss lost games in the back half of a tough schedule before getting shellacked in the Peach Bowl against TCU.

Alabama has begun the season with so-so wins over Wisconsin and Middle Tennessee.  They were very vanilla, and the offense looked stoppable.  We’ve seen this before in the past.  In almost every national title season, the Crimson Tide began the year relying on smart play, defense, and special teams, and then as the weeks progressed, the offense improved consistently.  This is the first game where ‘Bama absolutely must get their offense untracked, for Ole Miss will score points, even on the Tide defense.

The Rebels’ offense is more consistent and just as lethal this year as last.  Their defense is not top-rate like ‘Bama’s, but they have enough talent to come up with big plays.  If the Alabama quarterback situation does not come up with an improved effort, then the Rebels have a chance to become the top banana in the toughest division in college football.

BYU at UCLA: 10:30 PM on Fox Sports1
UCLA might be in a battle with USC just like the good ole days when the Bruins and Trojans faced off in November to decide the Rose Bowl participant.  This year, that game could decide more, like the Pac-12 South representative in the conference title game, and one of the four playoff spots.

Can UCLA get to the promised land with a true freshman quarterback?  Josh Rosen plays like anything but a true freshman.  Coach Jim Mora, Jr. can protect him and not force him to win games by himself.  The Bruin defense is improved, and the offense does not rely solely on the passing game, so yes, this team can make it to the USC game with a chance to win the division.

About BYU, the Cougars cannot be considered “under the radar” after beginning the season with wins over Nebraska and Boise St.  Even without their top quarterback, BYU moved the ball, while their defense looked strong at times in both wins.

The winner of this game will be one of the better 3-0 teams in the nation and yet not receive the respect due them.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Ohio St. 136.9 127.0 138.1 134.0
2 Ole Miss 129.5 122.8 128.0 126.8
3 TCU 129.9 118.3 131.3 126.5
4 Alabama 125.2 123.8 124.9 124.6
5 LSU 124.5 120.0 124.1 122.9
6 Baylor 123.7 119.8 124.2 122.6
7 USC 123.6 120.1 123.7 122.5
8 Notre Dame 123.0 119.3 123.4 121.9
9 Oregon 124.4 116.2 124.1 121.6
10 Oklahoma 122.4 119.0 123.0 121.5
11 UCLA 124.1 117.5 122.0 121.2
12 Georgia Tech 123.5 115.2 123.2 120.6
13 Texas A&M 121.2 119.3 120.6 120.4
14 Michigan St. 121.9 115.7 122.2 119.9
15 Georgia 123.1 114.7 122.0 119.9
16 Tennessee 120.4 116.2 120.2 118.9
17 Arkansas 120.1 114.3 119.3 117.9
18 Auburn 118.5 117.0 117.7 117.7
19 California 118.4 113.3 119.1 116.9
20 Stanford 116.3 115.3 116.8 116.1
21 Utah 118.1 111.5 117.4 115.7
22 Clemson 115.1 116.4 115.0 115.5
23 Florida St. 114.9 115.1 113.4 114.5
24 Wisconsin 113.4 114.4 113.4 113.7
25 Virginia Tech 114.3 110.3 114.4 113.0
26 West Virginia 115.0 109.6 114.4 113.0
27 Missouri 114.2 110.5 113.5 112.7
28 Arizona St. 115.0 109.2 113.6 112.6
29 Michigan 113.4 109.4 113.0 111.9
30 Mississippi St. 113.1 108.6 113.1 111.6
31 Oklahoma St. 110.9 111.1 111.3 111.1
32 North Carolina 111.3 111.2 110.5 111.0
33 Arizona 113.9 106.8 112.0 110.9
34 Minnesota 111.0 109.0 111.1 110.4
35 Florida 111.6 108.1 110.9 110.2
36 Boise St. 112.0 106.5 111.3 109.9
37 Miami 109.2 110.3 109.7 109.7
38 Temple 108.3 110.5 109.8 109.5
39 North Carolina St. 109.2 111.0 108.2 109.5
40 Nebraska 110.4 107.6 109.9 109.3
41 Illinois 109.6 107.3 109.0 108.6
42 Louisville 107.7 110.2 107.9 108.6
43 BYU 107.4 105.6 108.8 107.3
44 South Carolina 108.6 105.7 107.5 107.3
45 Northwestern 106.5 107.4 106.0 106.6
46 Texas 106.8 105.6 106.1 106.2
47 Penn St. 105.1 107.3 105.2 105.9
48 Memphis 105.4 105.0 106.9 105.8
49 Kansas St. 110.7 96.6 109.2 105.5
50 Pittsburgh 104.0 106.1 105.6 105.2
51 Kentucky 106.5 103.2 105.9 105.2
52 Texas Tech 108.6 98.7 108.1 105.1
53 Colorado 106.2 101.8 105.7 104.6
54 Cincinnati 103.5 104.4 104.8 104.2
55 Duke 102.7 103.4 103.8 103.3
56 Boston College 101.7 106.8 100.2 102.9
57 Washington 103.5 101.5 103.6 102.9
58 Virginia 103.7 100.8 103.2 102.6
59 Iowa 101.5 104.4 101.8 102.6
60 Houston 97.7 105.8 100.4 101.3
61 Western Kentucky 100.9 98.7 101.9 100.5
62 Louisiana Tech 100.5 98.2 101.4 100.0
63 Toledo 100.0 98.2 101.3 99.8
64 Purdue 99.9 99.7 98.2 99.3
65 Navy 97.6 100.4 97.6 98.5
66 San Diego St. 95.9 101.1 97.2 98.1
67 Wake Forest 96.3 100.9 95.4 97.5
68 Bowling Green 95.1 99.9 97.2 97.4
69 Rutgers 98.9 95.7 97.1 97.2
70 Syracuse 95.6 99.8 95.0 96.8
71 Washington St. 99.0 93.1 97.4 96.5
72 Marshall 95.8 95.6 96.4 95.9
73 Vanderbilt 98.2 92.2 97.1 95.8
74 Utah St. 96.1 94.8 96.5 95.8
75 Middle Tennessee 95.8 95.3 95.2 95.4
76 Air Force 93.7 99.2 93.1 95.3
77 Indiana 94.8 96.2 94.7 95.2
78 Western Michigan 94.6 95.1 95.5 95.1
79 Georgia Southern 94.2 96.3 94.7 95.1
80 Colorado St. 96.2 93.8 94.5 94.8
81 Central Florida 92.2 96.0 93.6 93.9
82 Iowa St. 95.4 91.9 93.9 93.7
83 Appalachian St. 92.0 95.0 94.1 93.7
84 Ohio 91.5 96.4 93.2 93.7
85 Maryland 94.8 91.6 93.1 93.2
86 Hawaii 91.8 94.0 92.4 92.7
87 East Carolina 90.7 95.5 91.3 92.5
88 Northern Illinois 91.3 94.4 91.4 92.4
89 Tulsa 89.7 96.3 90.8 92.3
90 San Jose St. 90.9 94.5 90.4 91.9
91 Nevada 90.6 94.6 89.7 91.6
92 South Florida 88.6 96.3 88.6 91.2
93 Oregon St. 92.1 89.5 90.8 90.8
94 Florida International 89.1 91.9 91.0 90.7
95 New Mexico 90.3 91.6 89.6 90.5
96 Fresno St. 87.8 95.7 87.0 90.2
97 Arkansas St. 89.0 88.8 90.0 89.3
98 Rice 87.4 91.8 87.9 89.0
99 Massachusetts 86.1 89.7 87.5 87.8
100 Tulane 86.9 89.3 85.0 87.1
101 UL-Lafayette 85.3 89.4 85.7 86.8
102 SMU 84.9 90.2 84.7 86.6
103 Texas St. 84.2 88.9 84.3 85.8
104 Buffalo 82.5 89.8 84.7 85.7
105 Ball St. 84.7 86.8 85.4 85.6
106 Southern Mississippi 86.1 85.7 84.7 85.5
107 Akron 82.7 89.2 84.1 85.3
108 Florida Atlantic 83.3 87.7 84.3 85.1
109 Central Michigan 81.8 87.8 83.7 84.4
110 UTEP 82.1 85.4 82.1 83.2
111 Old Dominion 80.8 88.4 79.9 83.0
112 North Texas 80.3 87.2 81.1 82.9
113 Kent St. 81.2 84.2 81.6 82.3
114 Connecticut 79.5 86.4 79.5 81.8
115 Army 76.4 87.2 77.6 80.4
116 UL-Monroe 81.7 78.3 81.0 80.3
117 UT-San Antonio 78.3 82.2 79.7 80.1
118 UNLV 78.6 81.1 79.0 79.6
119 Eastern Michigan 75.2 85.9 75.4 78.8
120 South Alabama 75.4 83.2 76.9 78.5
121 Wyoming 77.8 80.5 75.8 78.0
122 Miami (O) 75.4 82.0 75.2 77.5
123 Kansas 78.9 72.6 76.6 76.0
124 Idaho 70.6 79.1 72.1 73.9
125 Georgia St. 74.2 73.2 73.6 73.7
126 New Mexico St. 73.3 74.2 73.0 73.5
127 Charlotte 72.0 74.2 71.8 72.7
128 Troy 72.6 72.1 73.3 72.7

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Temple 1-0 2-0 108.3 110.5 109.8 109.5
Cincinnati 0-1 1-1 103.5 104.4 104.8 104.2
Central Florida 0-0 0-2 92.2 96.0 93.6 93.9
East Carolina 0-0 1-1 90.7 95.5 91.3 92.5
South Florida 0-0 1-1 88.6 96.3 88.6 91.2
Connecticut 0-0 2-0 79.5 86.4 79.5 81.8
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 0-0 2-0 105.4 105.0 106.9 105.8
Houston 0-0 2-0 97.7 105.8 100.4 101.3
Navy 0-0 1-0 97.6 100.4 97.6 98.5
Tulsa 0-0 2-0 89.7 96.3 90.8 92.3
Tulane 0-0 0-2 86.9 89.3 85.0 87.1
SMU 0-0 1-1 84.9 90.2 84.7 86.6
             
AAC Averages     93.8 98.0 94.4 95.4
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 0-0 2-0 115.1 116.4 115.0 115.5
Florida St. 0-0 2-0 114.9 115.1 113.4 114.5
North Carolina St. 0-0 2-0 109.2 111.0 108.2 109.5
Louisville 0-0 0-2 107.7 110.2 107.9 108.6
Boston College 0-0 2-0 101.7 106.8 100.2 102.9
Wake Forest 0-1 1-1 96.3 100.9 95.4 97.5
Syracuse 1-0 2-0 95.6 99.8 95.0 96.8
             
Coastal Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia Tech 0-0 2-0 123.5 115.2 123.2 120.6
Virginia Tech 0-0 1-1 114.3 110.3 114.4 113.0
North Carolina 0-0 1-1 111.3 111.2 110.5 111.0
Miami 0-0 2-0 109.2 110.3 109.7 109.7
Pittsburgh 0-0 2-0 104.0 106.1 105.6 105.2
Duke 0-0 2-0 102.7 103.4 103.8 103.3
Virginia 0-0 0-2 103.7 100.8 103.2 102.6
             
ACC Averages     107.8 108.4 107.5 107.9
             
Big 12 Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
TCU 0-0 2-0 129.9 118.3 131.3 126.5
Baylor 0-0 2-0 123.7 119.8 124.2 122.6
Oklahoma 0-0 2-0 122.4 119.0 123.0 121.5
West Virginia 0-0 2-0 115.0 109.6 114.4 113.0
Oklahoma St. 0-0 2-0 110.9 111.1 111.3 111.1
Texas 0-0 1-1 106.8 105.6 106.1 106.2
Kansas St. 0-0 2-0 110.7 96.6 109.2 105.5
Texas Tech 0-0 2-0 108.6 98.7 108.1 105.1
Iowa St. 0-0 1-1 95.4 91.9 93.9 93.7
Kansas 0-0 0-2 78.9 72.6 76.6 76.0
             
Big 12 Averages     110.2 104.3 109.8 108.1
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 0-0 2-0 136.9 127.0 138.1 134.0
Michigan St. 0-0 2-0 121.9 115.7 122.2 119.9
Michigan 0-0 1-1 113.4 109.4 113.0 111.9
Penn St. 0-0 1-1 105.1 107.3 105.2 105.9
Rutgers 0-0 1-1 98.9 95.7 97.1 97.2
Indiana 0-0 2-0 94.8 96.2 94.7 95.2
Maryland 0-0 1-1 94.8 91.6 93.1 93.2
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 0-0 1-1 113.4 114.4 113.4 113.7
Minnesota 0-0 1-1 111.0 109.0 111.1 110.4
Nebraska 0-0 1-1 110.4 107.6 109.9 109.3
Illinois 0-0 2-0 109.6 107.3 109.0 108.6
Northwestern 0-0 2-0 106.5 107.4 106.0 106.6
Iowa 0-0 2-0 101.5 104.4 101.8 102.6
Purdue 0-0 1-1 99.9 99.7 98.2 99.3
             
Big Ten Averages     108.4 106.6 108.1 107.7
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 1-0 2-0 100.9 98.7 101.9 100.5
Marshall 0-0 1-1 95.8 95.6 96.4 95.9
Middle Tennessee 0-0 1-1 95.8 95.3 95.2 95.4
Florida International 0-0 1-1 89.1 91.9 91.0 90.7
Florida Atlantic 0-0 0-2 83.3 87.7 84.3 85.1
Old Dominion 0-0 2-0 80.8 88.4 79.9 83.0
Charlotte 0-0 2-0 72.0 74.2 71.8 72.7
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 0-1 1-1 100.5 98.2 101.4 100.0
Rice 0-0 1-1 87.4 91.8 87.9 89.0
Southern Mississippi 0-0 1-1 86.1 85.7 84.7 85.5
UTEP 0-0 0-2 82.1 85.4 82.1 83.2
North Texas 0-0 0-1 80.3 87.2 81.1 82.9
UT-San Antonio 0-0 0-2 78.3 82.2 79.7 80.1
             
CUSA Averages     87.1 89.4 87.5 88.0
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   2-0 123.0 119.3 123.4 121.9
BYU   2-0 107.4 105.6 108.8 107.3
Army   0-2 76.4 87.2 77.6 80.4
             
Independents Averages     102.3 104.0 103.3 103.2
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Bowling Green 0-0 1-1 95.1 99.9 97.2 97.4
Ohio 0-0 2-0 91.5 96.4 93.2 93.7
Massachusetts 0-0 0-1 86.1 89.7 87.5 87.8
Buffalo 0-0 1-1 82.5 89.8 84.7 85.7
Akron 0-0 0-2 82.7 89.2 84.1 85.3
Kent St. 0-0 1-1 81.2 84.2 81.6 82.3
Miami (O) 0-0 1-1 75.4 82.0 75.2 77.5
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 0-0 1-0 100.0 98.2 101.3 99.8
Western Michigan 0-0 0-2 94.6 95.1 95.5 95.1
Northern Illinois 0-0 2-0 91.3 94.4 91.4 92.4
Ball St. 0-0 1-1 84.7 86.8 85.4 85.6
Central Michigan 0-0 1-1 81.8 87.8 83.7 84.4
Eastern Michigan 0-0 1-1 75.2 85.9 75.4 78.8
             
MAC Averages     86.3 90.7 87.4 88.1
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 0-0 1-1 112.0 106.5 111.3 109.9
Utah St. 0-0 1-1 96.1 94.8 96.5 95.8
Air Force 1-0 2-0 93.7 99.2 93.1 95.3
Colorado St. 0-0 1-1 96.2 93.8 94.5 94.8
New Mexico 0-0 1-1 90.3 91.6 89.6 90.5
Wyoming 0-0 0-2 77.8 80.5 75.8 78.0
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 0-0 1-1 95.9 101.1 97.2 98.1
Hawaii 0-0 1-1 91.8 94.0 92.4 92.7
San Jose St. 0-1 1-1 90.9 94.5 90.4 91.9
Nevada 0-0 1-1 90.6 94.6 89.7 91.6
Fresno St. 0-0 1-1 87.8 95.7 87.0 90.2
UNLV 0-0 0-2 78.6 81.1 79.0 79.6
             
MWC Averages     91.8 94.0 91.4 92.4
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oregon 0-0 1-1 124.4 116.2 124.1 121.6
California 0-0 2-0 118.4 113.3 119.1 116.9
Stanford 0-0 1-1 116.3 115.3 116.8 116.1
Washington 0-0 1-1 103.5 101.5 103.6 102.9
Washington St. 0-0 1-1 99.0 93.1 97.4 96.5
Oregon St. 0-0 1-1 92.1 89.5 90.8 90.8
             
South Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 0-0 2-0 123.6 120.1 123.7 122.5
UCLA 0-0 2-0 124.1 117.5 122.0 121.2
Utah 0-0 2-0 118.1 111.5 117.4 115.7
Arizona St. 0-0 1-1 115.0 109.2 113.6 112.6
Arizona 0-0 2-0 113.9 106.8 112.0 110.9
Colorado 0-0 1-1 106.2 101.8 105.7 104.6
             
Pac-12 Averages     112.9 108.0 112.2 111.0
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 1-0 2-0 123.1 114.7 122.0 119.9
Tennessee 0-0 1-1 120.4 116.2 120.2 118.9
Missouri 0-0 2-0 114.2 110.5 113.5 112.7
Florida 0-0 2-0 111.6 108.1 110.9 110.2
South Carolina 0-1 1-1 108.6 105.7 107.5 107.3
Kentucky 1-0 2-0 106.5 103.2 105.9 105.2
Vanderbilt 0-1 0-2 98.2 92.2 97.1 95.8
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ole Miss 0-0 2-0 129.5 122.8 128.0 126.8
Alabama 0-0 2-0 125.2 123.8 124.9 124.6
LSU 1-0 1-0 124.5 120.0 124.1 122.9
Texas A&M 0-0 2-0 121.2 119.3 120.6 120.4
Arkansas 0-0 1-1 120.1 114.3 119.3 117.9
Auburn 0-0 2-0 118.5 117.0 117.7 117.7
Mississippi St. 0-1 1-1 113.1 108.6 113.1 111.6
             
SEC Averages     116.8 112.6 116.1 115.1
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia Southern 0-0 1-1 94.2 96.3 94.7 95.1
Appalachian St. 0-0 1-1 92.0 95.0 94.1 93.7
Arkansas St. 0-0 0-2 89.0 88.8 90.0 89.3
UL-Lafayette 0-0 1-1 85.3 89.4 85.7 86.8
Texas St. 0-0 1-1 84.2 88.9 84.3 85.8
UL-Monroe 0-0 1-1 81.7 78.3 81.0 80.3
South Alabama 0-0 1-1 75.4 83.2 76.9 78.5
Idaho 0-0 0-2 70.6 79.1 72.1 73.9
Georgia St. 1-0 1-1 74.2 73.2 73.6 73.7
New Mexico St. 0-1 0-2 73.3 74.2 73.0 73.5
Troy 0-0 1-1 72.6 72.1 73.3 72.7
             
Sun Belt Averages     81.1 83.5 81.7 82.1

PiRate Conference Ratings

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 116.8 112.6 116.1 115.1
2 Pac-12 112.9 108.0 112.2 111.0
3 Big 12 110.2 104.3 109.8 108.1
4 ACC 107.8 108.4 107.5 107.9
5 Big Ten 108.4 106.6 108.1 107.7
6 Independents 102.3 104.0 103.3 103.2
7 AAC 93.8 98.0 94.4 95.4
8 MWC 91.8 94.0 91.4 92.4
9 MAC 86.3 90.7 87.4 88.1
10 CUSA 87.1 89.4 87.5 88.0
11 Sun Belt 81.1 83.5 81.7 82.1
 

Power 5 Conferences Bottom 10

# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
10 Wake Forest 96.3 100.9 95.4 97.5
9 Rutgers 98.9 95.7 97.1 97.2
8 Syracuse 95.6 99.8 95.0 96.8
7 Washington St. 99.0 93.1 97.4 96.5
6 Vanderbilt 98.2 92.2 97.1 95.8
5 Indiana 94.8 96.2 94.7 95.2
4 Iowa St. 95.4 91.9 93.9 93.7
3 Maryland 94.8 91.6 93.1 93.2
2 Oregon St. 92.1 89.5 90.8 90.8
1 Kansas 78.9 72.6 76.6 76.0
 

Group of 5 Contenders For Automatic New Year’s Six Bowl Bid

# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Boise St. 112.0 106.5 111.3 109.9
2 Temple 108.3 110.5 109.8 109.5
3 BYU 107.4 105.6 108.8 107.3
4 Memphis 105.4 105.0 106.9 105.8
5 Cincinnati 103.5 104.4 104.8 104.2
6 Houston 97.7 105.8 100.4 101.3
7 Western Kentucky 100.9 98.7 101.9 100.5
8 Louisiana Tech 100.5 98.2 101.4 100.0
9 Toledo 100.0 98.2 101.3 99.8
10 Navy 97.6 100.4 97.6 98.5
 

FCS Top 10

# Team PiRate
1 Jacksonville St. 97.5
2 South Dakota St. 94.1
3 North Dakota St. 92.2
4 Illinois St. 90.7
5 Coastal Carolina 90.6
6 Northern Iowa 88.0
7 JMU 87.5
8 Cal Poly 86.7
9 Harvard 85.2
10 Samford 85.1

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Thursday, September 17        
Louisville Clemson -4.4 -3.2 -4.1
         
Friday, September 18   PiRate Mean  Bias
Boston College Florida St. -10.2 -5.3 -10.2
Arizona St. New Mexico 27.7 20.6 27.0
         
Saturday, September 19   PiRate Mean  Bias
Maryland South Florida 9.2 -1.7 7.5
Michigan UNLV 38.3 31.8 37.5
Michigan St. Air Force 31.2 19.5 32.1
Minnesota Kent St. 32.8 27.8 32.5
Florida Atlantic Buffalo 2.8 0.9 2.6
Texas A&M Nevada 33.6 27.7 33.9
North Carolina Illinois 4.7 6.9 4.5
Missouri Connecticut 37.7 27.1 37.0
Army Wake Forest -17.9 -11.7 -15.8
Oklahoma Tulsa 34.7 24.7 34.2
Syracuse Central Michigan 16.8 15.0 14.3
Duke Northwestern -0.8 -1.0 0.8
Oregon Georgia St. 54.2 47.0 54.5
North Texas Rice -5.1 -2.6 -4.8
Massachusetts Temple -20.2 -18.8 -20.3
Eastern Michigan Ball St. -7.0 1.6 -7.5
Bowling Green Memphis -7.3 -2.1 -6.7
Kansas St. Louisiana Tech 13.2 1.4 10.8
Wisconsin Troy 43.8 45.3 43.1
Ohio St. Northern Illinois 48.6 35.6 49.7
Miami (O) Cincinnati -26.1 -20.4 -27.6
Navy East Carolina 9.9 7.9 9.3
Oklahoma St. Texas-San Antonio 35.6 31.9 34.6
Purdue Virginia Tech -11.4 -7.6 -13.2
Notre Dame Georgia Tech 2.5 7.1 3.2
Miami (FL) Nebraska 1.8 6.7 2.8
LSU Auburn 9.0 6.0 9.4
Indiana Western Kentucky -3.6 0.0 -4.7
Washington Utah St. 10.4 9.7 10.1
Georgia South Carolina 17.9 12.0 17.5
Middle Tennessee Charlotte 26.8 24.1 26.4
Texas St. Southern Miss. 1.1 6.2 2.6
Arkansas Texas Tech 14.5 18.6 14.2
Old Dominion North Carolina St. -25.9 -20.1 -25.8
Colorado (N) Colorado St. 10.0 8.0 11.2
Kentucky Florida -2.1 -1.9 -2.0
Texas California -8.6 -4.7 -10.0
Penn St. Rutgers 9.2 14.6 11.1
New Mexico St. UTEP -6.8 -9.2 -7.1
San Diego St. South Alabama 24.5 21.9 24.3
Iowa Pittsburgh 0.5 1.3 -0.8
USC Stanford 10.3 7.8 6.9
Oregon St. San Jose St. 4.2 -2.0 3.4
TCU SMU 46.0 29.1 47.6
Toledo Iowa St. 7.6 9.3 10.4
Washington St. Wyoming 24.2 15.6 24.6
Alabama Ole Miss -1.3 4.0 -0.1
UCLA BYU 19.7 14.9 16.2
Fresno St. Utah -27.3 -12.8 -27.4

FBS vs. FCS Games–PiRate Rating Only

FBS vs. FCS Week 3 PiRate
Boise St. Idaho St. 39
Akron Savannah St. 28
Ohio U Southeast Louisiana 21
Marshall Norfolk St. 38
Virginia William & Mary 27
Mississippi St. Northwestern St. 42
Vanderbilt Austin Peay 37
Idaho Wofford 3
Georgia Southern Citadel 23
Central Florida Furman 26
Florida Int’l UNC-Central 17
Western Michigan Murray St. 31
Arkansas St. Missouri St. 20
Tennessee Western Carolina 39
Tulane Maine 14
Arizona Northern Arizona 37
Hawaii UC-Davis 22

 

September 9, 2015

PiRate Ratings College Football For Week 2: September 10-12, 2015

One week is all it took for the cream to rise to the top.  The Southeastern Conference, coming off a year in which its top team failed to play in the National Championship Game since Vince Young led Texas over Matt Leinert and USC in the 2006 Rose Bowl, placed 10 of its 14 teams in the nation’s top poll.  Yes, 40% of the Top 25 has an SEC flavor.  All seven SEC West teams are ranked.

Our PiRate Ratings have just nine SEC teams ranked in the top 25, but overall, we have the SEC separating itself from the number two league by almost five points per team.

Texas A&M, Auburn, and Alabama all won on neutral fields against teams from Power 5 conferences.  Additionally, the league’s top rival, the Pac-12 had a miserable weekend.  Arizona State failed to show up against Texas A&M.  Arizona just barely escaped lowly Texas-San Antonio.  Oregon State looked weak beating Weber St.  Washington State was worse than that; the Cougars lost at home to Portland State, and now Mike Leach is no longer looked upon as the genius he once was.

Colorado lost to a Hawaii team that hasn’t been decent in five years.  Even Oregon looked average in their win over Eastern Washington.

There were some bright spots.  UCLA, USC, Utah, and California all looked impressive in season-opening wins.  Washington put a scare on Boise State on the road.  Still, the league as a whole dropped well behind the SEC.

The Big 12 received a minor black eye in the opening week.  TCU looked beatable in their win at Minnesota.  Baylor did not look like a world beater against SMU.  Texas looked more like SMU of 2014 in their blowout loss to Notre Dame.  Oklahoma State had difficulties beating Central Michigan.  Texas Tech could have lost to Sam Houston.  And, Kansas lost at home to South Dakota St..

Week two brings a couple of interesting games worth watching.  Start with Oregon visiting Michigan State, where the loser is likely finished in the College Playoff race, while the winner moves up a couple places in the pecking order.  Neither team was all that impressive in week one, but both more than likely held back a lot of their repertoires on both sides of the ball.

Oklahoma visits Neyland Stadium to take on Tennessee in what looks like a tossup game.  The Vols’ offense looked unstoppable against a decent Bowling Green team, while Oklahoma looked solid but not spectacular against Akron.  This game should be exciting.

Two crucial SEC games should give the winners a leg up on bowl eligibility.  In the East, South Carolina hosts Kentucky, and the winner will be 2-0.  The Wildcats upset the Gamecocks in Lexington last year.  Mississippi State hosts an LSU team that played all of five minutes against McNeese State in week one with lightning coming out the victor.  Mississippi State needs an upset in league play to smell bowl eligibility this year.  The Bulldogs are raw on both sides of the ball.  It will be interesting to see how much LSU relies on Leonard Fornette and whether State can shut down the Tiger running game and force the Bayou Bengals to throw the ball.

In the AAC, Temple visits Cincinnati, and the winner of this game becomes a top contender for the automatic New Year’s Six Bowl game allocated to the top team from the Group of 5 conferences (AAC, MWC, Sun Belt, CUSA, and MAC plus BYU and Army among the Independents).

There are a couple of in-state rivalry games this week.  The Friday game, Utah State at Utah, may not be that close, but the Saturday game, Iowa at Iowa State, should be one of the most entertaining games of the week,

Then, there are a couple of under the radar games that we find interesting.  Wake Forest visits Syracuse, and the winner will improve to 2-0 with a chance to sneak into the bowl conversation in October.  Kansas State visits UT-San Antonio a week after UTSA put a scare on Arizona in Tucson.  Many times, when a team plays an incredible road game and loses in a close game that should have been a blowout loss, they return home the following week and have enough confidence to complete the surprise.  It would be quite a surprise if UTSA upset the Wildcats.

Missouri travels to Jonesboro, Arkansas, to take on Arkansas State, and this is a huge trap game for the Tigers.  Missouri has been a slow-starter in recent years, and ASU has enough talent to keep this game close and pull out a sneaky upset at the end.

And finally, there are three games where another poor performance following an opening week bomb could get the Bunsen Burners started warming up some seats.  Texas better look 100% better at home against Rice, or Charlie Strong might start facing a little heat.  Penn State needs to rebound against Buffalo and move the football for 400 yards and 35 points, or else James Franklin could feel a little heat in Happy Valley.  By far the coach with the most to lose this week is the coach with little chance of seeing his team compete.  Mike London and his Virginia Cavaliers take on Notre Dame, a week after facing UCLA at the Rose Bowl.  With Boise State scheduled to come to Charlottesville in week four, the Cavs better show up and give a good effort against the Irish and then demolish William and Mary next week, or London could be the first coach to get a pink slip during the season, when UVa is off in week five (Tim Beckman was fired at Illinois prior to the beginning of the season).

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Ohio St. 137.7 127.0 138.9 134.5
2 TCU 129.6 118.0 131.0 126.2
3 Ole Miss 129.0 121.4 127.3 125.9
4 Alabama 125.1 123.7 124.8 124.5
5 Baylor 125.0 121.1 125.5 123.9
6 LSU 125.2 120.9 125.1 123.7
7 Notre Dame 123.7 120.1 124.4 122.7
8 UCLA 125.2 118.0 123.4 122.2
9 Oregon 124.7 116.3 124.5 121.8
10 USC 123.3 118.6 123.2 121.7
11 Arkansas 123.8 117.8 123.4 121.7
12 Auburn 121.3 119.8 120.5 120.5
13 Oklahoma 121.4 118.3 121.8 120.5
14 Georgia 123.6 115.2 122.7 120.5
15 Michigan St. 121.6 115.6 121.8 119.7
16 Tennessee 121.1 116.6 121.1 119.6
17 Texas A&M 119.7 117.5 118.6 118.6
18 Georgia Tech 120.8 112.0 120.2 117.7
19 Utah 119.4 112.3 118.8 116.8
20 California 118.2 112.0 118.5 116.2
21 Stanford 116.5 113.3 117.1 115.6
22 Clemson 114.6 115.7 114.5 114.9
23 Florida St. 115.2 115.2 113.9 114.8
24 West Virginia 116.2 110.8 115.6 114.2
25 Missouri 115.6 111.6 115.1 114.1
26 Arizona St. 116.2 110.4 114.8 113.8
27 Virginia Tech 114.3 110.3 114.4 113.0
28 Wisconsin 112.7 113.0 112.4 112.7
29 Oklahoma St. 112.1 112.3 112.5 112.3
30 Boise St. 114.3 108.5 113.6 112.1
31 Florida 113.5 108.9 113.0 111.8
32 Michigan 112.9 108.7 112.2 111.3
33 Louisville 110.3 112.5 110.6 111.1
34 Minnesota 111.6 109.7 112.0 111.1
35 North Carolina 111.1 111.0 110.3 110.8
36 Mississippi St. 112.4 107.7 112.1 110.7
37 Arizona 113.6 105.6 111.5 110.2
38 Miami 109.1 110.0 109.6 109.6
39 North Carolina St. 109.2 111.0 108.2 109.5
40 South Carolina 109.9 107.2 109.1 108.7
41 Nebraska 110.1 106.4 109.3 108.6
42 Penn St. 107.8 109.8 108.1 108.6
43 Temple 107.1 109.8 108.4 108.4
44 Texas 108.0 106.6 107.6 107.4
45 Illinois 107.6 105.3 107.0 106.6
46 Northwestern 106.2 107.1 105.7 106.3
47 Cincinnati 104.7 105.1 106.2 105.3
48 Pittsburgh 104.0 105.8 105.5 105.1
49 Kansas St. 111.0 94.6 109.3 105.0
50 Memphis 104.4 104.7 105.7 104.9
51 BYU 104.8 103.3 106.2 104.8
52 Colorado 105.5 101.1 104.6 103.7
53 Kentucky 105.2 101.7 104.3 103.7
54 Duke 102.0 102.7 103.1 102.6
55 Texas Tech 106.1 95.5 105.3 102.3
56 Iowa 100.9 104.1 101.0 102.0
57 Washington 102.5 100.5 102.6 101.9
58 Virginia 103.0 100.0 102.2 101.7
59 Boston College 99.9 105.0 98.4 101.1
60 Western Kentucky 101.0 98.8 102.1 100.6
61 Louisiana Tech 100.4 98.1 101.2 99.9
62 Purdue 99.6 99.4 97.9 99.0
63 Wake Forest 97.4 102.2 97.0 98.9
64 San Diego St. 96.1 102.4 97.8 98.8
65 Western Michigan 97.9 98.7 99.5 98.7
66 Navy 97.6 100.4 97.6 98.5
67 Houston 94.6 103.0 97.2 98.3
68 Rutgers 99.4 96.8 97.8 98.0
69 Marshall 97.5 97.2 98.3 97.7
70 Maryland 98.4 94.3 97.0 96.6
71 Toledo 96.0 94.4 96.9 95.8
72 Indiana 95.3 96.7 95.2 95.7
73 Washington St. 98.5 92.0 96.7 95.7
74 Middle Tennessee 95.9 95.4 95.3 95.5
75 Vanderbilt 97.7 91.7 96.4 95.3
76 Syracuse 94.2 98.2 93.1 95.2
77 Utah St. 95.1 94.3 95.4 94.9
78 Bowling Green 91.8 97.5 93.6 94.3
79 Iowa St. 96.0 92.2 94.7 94.3
80 Appalachian St. 92.5 95.7 94.6 94.3
81 Colorado St. 95.6 93.1 93.6 94.1
82 Central Florida 92.0 96.2 93.3 93.8
83 Air Force 92.3 97.8 91.3 93.8
84 New Mexico 93.5 94.6 93.0 93.7
85 San Jose St. 92.3 95.9 92.2 93.5
86 Nevada 90.9 95.8 90.2 92.3
87 Northern Illinois 91.2 94.3 91.3 92.3
88 Ohio 90.1 95.1 91.6 92.3
89 Hawaii 90.5 93.5 91.1 91.7
90 Oregon St. 92.6 90.2 91.6 91.5
91 Georgia Southern 90.9 92.7 90.7 91.4
92 Fresno St. 88.3 97.1 87.7 91.0
93 East Carolina 88.8 94.7 89.2 90.9
94 South Florida 88.3 96.2 88.1 90.9
95 Florida International 88.6 91.4 90.5 90.2
96 Tulane 89.6 92.5 88.0 90.0
97 Tulsa 86.5 93.3 87.4 89.1
98 Massachusetts 86.8 90.4 88.6 88.6
99 Rice 86.7 91.3 86.9 88.3
100 Arkansas St. 87.9 88.0 88.7 88.2
101 Ball St. 86.2 88.6 87.4 87.4
102 UTEP 85.1 89.1 85.4 86.5
103 UL-Lafayette 85.0 89.1 85.4 86.5
104 Akron 82.7 89.5 84.2 85.5
105 Texas St. 83.8 88.5 83.9 85.4
106 Florida Atlantic 83.4 88.0 84.4 85.3
107 SMU 83.8 88.8 83.1 85.2
108 Southern Mississippi 85.6 85.2 84.2 85.0
109 Central Michigan 82.0 88.0 83.9 84.6
110 North Texas 81.7 88.9 83.0 84.5
111 Old Dominion 81.1 88.7 80.2 83.3
112 Buffalo 80.1 87.6 82.1 83.3
113 Kent St. 80.9 83.9 81.3 82.0
114 Connecticut 79.5 86.1 79.3 81.6
115 Wyoming 81.4 83.7 79.6 81.6
116 UT-San Antonio 78.3 84.5 79.9 80.9
117 Army 76.4 87.5 77.8 80.6
118 UL-Monroe 81.4 78.0 80.7 80.0
119 South Alabama 76.0 84.7 77.8 79.5
120 Miami (O) 76.1 83.4 76.2 78.6
121 UNLV 77.5 80.6 77.6 78.6
122 Kansas 79.9 72.9 77.8 76.9
123 Eastern Michigan 72.1 83.2 72.1 75.8
124 New Mexico St. 74.4 75.5 74.5 74.8
125 Idaho 70.9 80.6 72.6 74.7
126 Georgia St. 73.4 72.2 72.4 72.7
127 Troy 72.1 71.6 72.8 72.2
128 Charlotte 70.8 73.0 70.6 71.5

Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Temple 0-0 1-0 107.1 109.8 108.4 108.4
Cincinnati 0-0 1-0 104.7 105.1 106.2 105.3
Central Florida 0-0 0-1 92.0 96.2 93.3 93.8
East Carolina 0-0 1-0 88.8 94.7 89.2 90.9
South Florida 0-0 1-0 88.3 96.2 88.1 90.9
Connecticut 0-0 1-0 79.5 86.1 79.3 81.6
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 0-0 1-0 104.4 104.7 105.7 104.9
Houston 0-0 1-0 94.6 103.0 97.2 98.3
Navy 0-0 1-0 97.6 100.4 97.6 98.5
Tulane 0-0 0-1 89.6 92.5 88.0 90.0
Tulsa 0-0 1-0 86.5 93.3 87.4 89.1
SMU 0-0 0-1 83.8 88.8 83.1 85.2
             
AAC Averages     93.1 97.6 93.6 94.8
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 0-0 1-0 114.6 115.7 114.5 114.9
Florida St. 0-0 1-0 115.2 115.2 113.9 114.8
Louisville 0-0 0-1 110.3 112.5 110.6 111.1
North Carolina St. 0-0 1-0 109.2 111.0 108.2 109.5
Boston College 0-0 1-0 99.9 105.0 98.4 101.1
Wake Forest 0-0 1-0 97.4 102.2 97.0 98.9
Syracuse 0-0 1-0 94.2 98.2 93.1 95.2
             
Coastal Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia Tech 0-0 1-0 120.8 112.0 120.2 117.7
Virginia Tech 0-0 0-1 114.3 110.3 114.4 113.0
North Carolina 0-0 0-1 111.1 111.0 110.3 110.8
Miami 0-0 1-0 109.1 110.0 109.6 109.6
Pittsburgh 0-0 1-0 104.0 105.8 105.5 105.1
Duke 0-0 1-0 102.0 102.7 103.1 102.6
Virginia 0-0 0-1 103.0 100.0 102.2 101.7
             
ACC Averages     107.5 108.0 107.2 107.6
             
Big 12 Conference
  Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
TCU 0-0 1-0 129.6 118.0 131.0 126.2
Baylor 0-0 1-0 125.0 121.1 125.5 123.9
Oklahoma 0-0 1-0 121.4 118.3 121.8 120.5
West Virginia 0-0 1-0 116.2 110.8 115.6 114.2
Oklahoma St. 0-0 1-0 112.1 112.3 112.5 112.3
Texas 0-0 0-1 108.0 106.6 107.6 107.4
Kansas St. 0-0 1-0 111.0 94.6 109.3 105.0
Texas Tech 0-0 1-0 106.1 95.5 105.3 102.3
Iowa St. 0-0 1-0 96.0 92.2 94.7 94.3
Kansas 0-0 0-1 79.9 72.9 77.8 76.9
             
Big 12 Averages     110.5 104.2 110.1 108.3
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 0-0 1-0 137.7 127.0 138.9 134.5
Michigan St. 0-0 1-0 121.6 115.6 121.8 119.7
Michigan 0-0 0-1 112.9 108.7 112.2 111.3
Penn St. 0-0 0-1 107.8 109.8 108.1 108.6
Rutgers 0-0 1-0 99.4 96.8 97.8 98.0
Maryland 0-0 1-0 98.4 94.3 97.0 96.6
Indiana 0-0 1-0 95.3 96.7 95.2 95.7
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 0-0 0-1 112.7 113.0 112.4 112.7
Minnesota 0-0 0-1 111.6 109.7 112.0 111.1
Nebraska 0-0 0-1 110.1 106.4 109.3 108.6
Illinois 0-0 1-0 107.6 105.3 107.0 106.6
Northwestern 0-0 1-0 106.2 107.1 105.7 106.3
Iowa 0-0 1-0 100.9 104.1 101.0 102.0
Purdue 0-0 0-1 99.6 99.4 97.9 99.0
             
Big Ten Averages     108.7 106.7 108.3 107.9
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 0-0 1-0 101.0 98.8 102.1 100.6
Marshall 0-0 1-0 97.5 97.2 98.3 97.7
Middle Tennessee 0-0 1-0 95.9 95.4 95.3 95.5
Florida International 0-0 1-0 88.6 91.4 90.5 90.2
Florida Atlantic 0-0 0-1 83.4 88.0 84.4 85.3
Old Dominion 0-0 1-0 81.1 88.7 80.2 83.3
Charlotte 0-0 1-0 70.8 73.0 70.6 71.5
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 0-0 1-0 100.4 98.1 101.2 99.9
Rice 0-0 1-0 86.7 91.3 86.9 88.3
UTEP 0-0 0-1 85.1 89.1 85.4 86.5
Southern Mississippi 0-0 0-1 85.6 85.2 84.2 85.0
North Texas 0-0 0-0 81.7 88.9 83.0 84.5
UT-San Antonio 0-0 2-1 78.3 84.5 79.9 80.9
             
CUSA Averages     87.4 90.0 87.8 88.4
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   1-0 123.7 120.1 124.4 122.7
BYU   1-0 104.8 103.3 106.2 104.8
Army   0-1 76.4 87.5 77.8 80.6
             
Independents Averages     101.6 103.6 102.8 102.7
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Bowling Green 0-0 0-1 91.8 97.5 93.6 94.3
Ohio 0-0 1-0 90.1 95.1 91.6 92.3
Massachusetts 0-0 0-0 86.8 90.4 88.6 88.6
Akron 0-0 0-1 82.7 89.5 84.2 85.5
Buffalo 0-0 1-0 80.1 87.6 82.1 83.3
Kent St. 0-0 0-1 80.9 83.9 81.3 82.0
Miami (O) 0-0 1-0 76.1 83.4 76.2 78.6
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 0-0 0-1 97.9 98.7 99.5 98.7
Toledo 0-0 0-0 96.0 94.4 96.9 95.8
Northern Illinois 0-0 1-0 91.2 94.3 91.3 92.3
Ball St. 0-0 1-0 86.2 88.6 87.4 87.4
Central Michigan 0-0 0-1 82.0 88.0 83.9 84.6
Eastern Michigan 0-0 0-1 72.1 83.2 72.1 75.8
             
MAC Averages     85.7 90.4 86.8 87.6
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 0-0 1-0 114.3 108.5 113.6 112.1
Utah St. 0-0 1-0 95.1 94.3 95.4 94.9
Colorado St. 0-0 1-0 95.6 93.1 93.6 94.1
Air Force 0-0 1-0 92.3 97.8 91.3 93.8
New Mexico 0-0 1-0 93.5 94.6 93.0 93.7
Wyoming 0-0 0-1 81.4 83.7 79.6 81.6
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 0-0 1-0 96.1 102.4 97.8 98.8
Nevada 0-0 1-0 90.9 95.8 90.2 92.3
San Jose St. 0-0 1-0 92.3 95.9 92.2 93.5
Hawaii 0-0 1-0 90.5 93.5 91.1 91.7
Fresno St. 0-0 1-0 88.3 97.1 87.7 91.0
UNLV 0-0 0-1 77.5 80.6 77.6 78.6
             
MWC Averages     92.3 94.8 91.9 93.0
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oregon 0-0 1-0 124.7 116.3 124.5 121.8
California 0-0 1-0 118.2 112.0 118.5 116.2
Stanford 0-0 0-1 116.5 113.3 117.1 115.6
Washington 0-0 0-1 102.5 100.5 102.6 101.9
Washington St. 0-0 0-1 98.5 92.0 96.7 95.7
Oregon St. 0-0 1-0 92.6 90.2 91.6 91.5
             
South Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
UCLA 0-0 1-0 125.2 118.0 123.4 122.2
USC 0-0 1-0 123.3 118.6 123.2 121.7
Utah 0-0 1-0 119.4 112.3 118.8 116.8
Arizona St. 0-0 0-1 116.2 110.4 114.8 113.8
Arizona 0-0 1-0 113.6 105.6 111.5 110.2
Colorado 0-0 0-1 105.5 101.1 104.6 103.7
             
Pac-12 Averages     113.0 107.5 112.3 110.9
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 0-0 1-0 123.6 115.2 122.7 120.5
Tennessee 0-0 1-0 121.1 116.6 121.1 119.6
Missouri 0-0 1-0 115.6 111.6 115.1 114.1
Florida 0-0 1-0 113.5 108.9 113.0 111.8
South Carolina 0-0 1-0 109.9 107.2 109.1 108.7
Kentucky 0-0 1-0 105.2 101.7 104.3 103.7
Vanderbilt 0-0 0-1 97.7 91.7 96.4 95.3
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ole Miss 0-0 1-0 129.0 121.4 127.3 125.9
Alabama 0-0 1-0 125.1 123.7 124.8 124.5
LSU 0-0 0-0 125.2 120.9 125.1 123.7
Arkansas 0-0 1-0 123.8 117.8 123.4 121.7
Auburn 0-0 1-0 121.3 119.8 120.5 120.5
Texas A&M 0-0 1-0 119.7 117.5 118.6 118.6
Mississippi St. 0-0 1-0 112.4 107.7 112.1 110.7
             
SEC Averages     117.4 113.0 116.7 115.7
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 0-0 1-0 92.5 95.7 94.6 94.3
Georgia Southern 0-0 0-1 90.9 92.7 90.7 91.4
Arkansas St. 0-0 0-1 87.9 88.0 88.7 88.2
UL-Lafayette 0-0 0-1 85.0 89.1 85.4 86.5
Texas St. 0-0 0-1 83.8 88.5 83.9 85.4
UL-Monroe 0-0 0-1 81.4 78.0 80.7 80.0
South Alabama 0-0 1-0 76.0 84.7 77.8 79.5
New Mexico St. 0-0 0-1 74.4 75.5 74.5 74.8
Idaho 0-0 0-1 70.9 80.6 72.6 74.7
Georgia St. 0-0 0-1 73.4 72.2 72.4 72.7
Troy 0-0 0-1 72.1 71.6 72.8 72.2
             
Sun Belt Averages     80.8 83.3 81.3 81.8
PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 117.4 113.0 116.7 115.7
2 Pac-12 113.0 107.5 112.3 110.9
3 Big 12 110.5 104.2 110.1 108.3
4 Big Ten 108.7 106.7 108.3 107.9
5 ACC 107.5 108.0 107.2 107.6
6 Independents 101.6 103.6 102.8 102.7
7 AAC 93.1 97.6 93.6 94.8
8 MWC 92.3 94.8 91.9 93.0
9 CUSA 87.4 90.0 87.8 88.4
10 MAC 85.7 90.4 86.8 87.6
11 Sun Belt 80.8 83.3 81.3 81.8
Power 5 Conferences Bottom 10
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Kansas 79.9 72.9 77.8 76.9
2 Oregon St. 92.6 90.2 91.6 91.5
3 Iowa St. 96.0 92.2 94.7 94.3
4 Syracuse 94.2 98.2 93.1 95.2
5 Vanderbilt 97.7 91.7 96.4 95.3
6 Indiana 95.3 96.7 95.2 95.7
7 Washington St. 98.5 92.0 96.7 95.7
8 Maryland 98.4 94.3 97.0 96.6
9 Rutgers 99.4 96.8 97.8 98.0
10 Virginia 103.0 100.0 102.2 101.7
Group of 5 Contenders For Automatic New Year’s Six Bowl Bid
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Boise St. 114.3 108.5 113.6 112.1
2 Temple 107.1 109.8 108.4 108.4
3 Cincinnati 104.7 105.1 106.2 105.3
4 Memphis 104.4 104.7 105.7 104.9
5 BYU 104.8 103.3 106.2 104.8
6 Western Kentucky 101.0 98.8 102.1 100.6
7 Louisiana Tech 100.4 98.1 101.2 99.9
8 San Diego St. 96.1 102.4 97.8 98.8
9 Western Michigan 97.9 98.7 99.5 98.7
10 Navy 97.6 100.4 97.6 98.5
FCS Top 10
# Team PiRate
1 Jacksonville St. 93.7
2 South Dakota St. 93.4
3 North Dakota St. 91.8
4 Coastal Carolina 90.6
5 Illinois St. 88.4
6 Eastern Washington 88.0
7 SE Louisiana 86.7
8 Cal Poly 86.6
9 Northern Iowa 86.1
10 Harvard 85.2
This Week’s Games
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Thursday, September 10        
Western Kentucky Louisiana Tech 3.1 3.2 3.4
         
Friday, September 11        
Florida Atlantic Miami (FL) -24.0 -20.3 -23.5
Utah Utah St. 26.3 20.0 25.4
         
Saturday, September 12        
Florida St. South Florida 28.4 20.2 27.1
Michigan Oregon St. 23.1 21.6 23.2
Connecticut Army 5.1 0.6 3.5
UT-San Antonio Kansas St. -30.2 -7.6 -26.9
Maryland Bowling Green 9.4 -0.4 6.2
Louisville Houston 18.3 12.4 16.1
Penn St. Buffalo 34.2 28.3 32.8
Wisconsin Miami (O) 40.1 33.4 40.0
Syracuse Wake Forest -0.4 -1.2 -1.1
Clemson Appalachian St. 24.5 22.4 22.3
Colorado Massachusetts 22.2 24.2 19.5
Texas Tech UTEP 23.5 8.9 22.4
Ohio St. Hawaii 51.2 37.5 47.4
Colorado St. Minnesota -11.9 -13.7 -14.0
Rutgers Washington St. 4.2 8.1 4.4
Georgia Tech Tulane 32.8 21.1 33.8
Virginia Notre Dame -18.2 -17.3 -19.8
Vanderbilt Georgia -23.9 -21.5 -24.3
Ole Miss Fresno St. 44.2 27.8 43.1
Alabama Middle Tennessee 32.2 31.3 32.5
Arkansas Toledo 30.8 26.4 29.5
Wyoming Eastern Michigan 12.3 3.5 10.5
Iowa St. Iowa -3.7 -10.7 -5.1
California San Diego St. 24.6 12.1 23.2
Tennessee Oklahoma 2.7 1.3 2.3
Akron Pittsburgh -19.8 -14.8 -19.8
Georgia Southern Western Michigan -4.0 -3.0 -5.8
Ohio Marshall -4.9 0.4 -4.2
SMU North Texas 4.1 1.9 2.1
Nevada Arizona -19.7 -6.8 -18.3
Texas A&M Ball St. 36.5 31.9 34.2
Arkansas St. Missouri -25.2 -21.1 -23.9
Florida East Carolina 27.7 17.2 26.8
Kansas Memphis -22.0 -29.3 -25.4
South Carolina Kentucky 7.7 8.5 7.8
USC Idaho 55.4 41.0 53.6
Michigan St. Oregon 0.8 2.6 1.6
Nebraska South Alabama 38.2 25.7 35.7
Texas Rice 23.8 17.8 23.2
Indiana Florida Int’l 12.0 10.6 10.0
New Mexico St. Georgia St. 3.5 5.8 4.6
Cincinnati Temple 0.6 -1.7 0.8
New Mexico Tulsa 10.0 4.3 8.6
Mississippi St. LSU -9.8 -10.2 -10.0
Air Force San Jose St. 3.0 4.9 2.1
BYU Boise St. -6.5 -2.2 -4.4
UNLV UCLA -45.2 -34.9 -43.3
Stanford Central Florida 27.5 20.1 26.8
         
FBS vs. FCS Week 2 PiRate    
Auburn Jacksonville St. 35    
Illinois Western Illinois 23    
Purdue Indiana St. 19    
Charlotte Presbyterian 11    
Boston College Howard 42    
Washington Sacramento St. 36    
West Virginia Liberty 42    
Central Michigan Monmouth 30    
Northern Illinois Murray St. 37    
Southern Miss. Austin Peay 34    
TCU Stephen F. Austin 53    
Virginia Tech Furman 40    
Northwestern Eastern Illinois 34    
Duke UNC-Central 37    
North Carolina North Carolina A&T 32    
N.C. St. Eastern Kentucky 34    
Kent St. Delaware St. 29    
UL-Lafayette Northwestern St. 21    
UL-Monroe Nicholls St. 36    
Texas St. Prairie View 26    
Troy Charleston Southern 6    
Old Dominion Norfolk St. 26    
Oklahoma St. Central Arkansas 36    
Baylor Lamar 50    
Arizona St. Cal Poly 34    

March 15, 2015

Bracketology Update for Sunday Morning, March 15, 2015

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:16 am

Sunday, March 15, 2015.  Note to Ole Miss, Indiana, Boise St., Temple, UCLA, Miami, and even Murray St.: BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH!

The 21st Century Roman-like Senate meets today to decide your fate, and it looks like most if not all of you will be judged by a modern day conspiratorial conclave led by today’s Brutus and Cassius.  Your fate will be a stabbing in the back, and this day will launch the great Civil War known as the NCAA Tournament, where the next Augustus could be sitting in a chair in the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville this afternoon, wearing Royal Blue with the letter “K” emblazoned upon it.

We are down to just five games before the Selection Committee reveals the official brackets at 6PM EDT today.  The Sun Belt Conference Championship Game features top seed Georgia State and top challenger Georgia Southern.  If State wins, their seed could be as high as 13, while Southern would receive a 14 or 15 seed if they pull off the upset.

The Atlantic 10 Championship Game could be the most exciting of the quintet today, with Virginia Commonwealth and Dayton facing off in Brooklyn.  When these two played a couple weeks back, a missed VCU crip shot off an offensive rebound was all that separated the combatants from going to overtime.

Kentucky and Arkansas face off in the SEC Championship Game.  A Wildcat win leaves everything the same as it is now, while an Arkansas upset would only life the Razorbacks up one seeding slot if anything.

Wisconsin looks to wrap up a number one seed, as the Badgers face Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship Game.  The Spartans are starting to look like some of Coach Tom Izzo’s better teams that played volleyball on the backboards until the ball went in the hoop.  Wisconsin has a habit of playing 10 minutes where they could outscore not even Kentucky, but also the Atlanta Hawks, but then they have a five-minute stretch where they would be outscored by not only Maine but by La Follette High in Madison.

The fifth game is the key game for the Selection Committee, because two teams stand to be affected by the outcome.  Connecticut faces SMU in the American Athletic Conference Championship in Hartford, and the Huskies are tough to beat at home and in March.  Should U Conn come through and win another tournament title when they were a middle of the pack team, then one team currently penciled into the dance will see the eraser remove their name and send it over to the NIT Selection Committee.

It is still early on Sunday morning, so I apologize that I have not heard from all my bracketologist friends that send me their data.  They are entitled to a late Saturday night, and if they were like most of us, they were up late watching the Pac-12, Big West, and WAC Championship Games.

Before we show you our current Bracketology, here are the PiRate Ratings for today’s five games.

Team               Team                         Red    White    Blue
Kentucky         Arkansas                     14        11        15
Wisconsin       Michigan St.                  7          6          4
Connecticut     SMU                            -4        -1          1
Georgia St.     Georgia Southern        10         5          8

VCU                Dayton                           1         1         -1

The Bubble

We do not have all our bracketologists reporting this morning, but from what we do have, it all boils down to four teams.  Connecticut is the key here.  If the Huskies win today, then two of the other three in this list see their bubble burst.  If SMU defeats U Conn, then only one bubble bursts, thanks to Wyoming winning the MWC title last night.

We will offer our opinion of what information we have from the 11 geniuses that have sent in their data.

The teams in trouble are Indiana, Ole Miss, BYU, and Temple in that order.  The consensus among the group of 11 is that Indiana was ousted by Wyoming’s win last night and Ole Miss stands to go bust should Connecticut win today.  One caveat: the three most accurate of our 26 experts have yet to send in their information today.

Here are the consensus seeds according to the 11 Bracketologists we do have this morning.

1 Kentucky
1 Villanova
1 Wisconsin
1 Duke
2 Virginia
2 Arizona
2 Gonzaga
2 Kansas
3 Iowa St.
3 Maryland
3 Notre Dame
3 Baylor
4 Oklahoma
4 North Carolina
4 Northern Iowa
4 Louisville
5 Arkansas
5 West Virginia
5 Wichita St.
5 SMU
6 Utah
6 Providence
6 Georgetown
6 Butler
7 Michigan St.
7 VCU
7 San Diego St.
7 Oregon
8 Xavier
8 Iowa
8 St. John’s
8 Ohio St.
9 Cincinnati
9 N. C. St.
9 Dayton
9 Oklahoma St.
10 Davidson
10 Georgia
10 Texas
10 Colorado St.
11 LSU
11 Purdue
11 Wyoming
11 Boise St.
11 BYU
12 Temple
12 Ole Miss
12 Buffalo
12 S. F. Austin
12 Wofford
13 Valparaiso
13 Harvard
13 Georgia St.
13 UC Irvine
14 Northeastern
14 Albany
14 New Mexico St.
14 E. Washington
15 N. Dakota St.
15 Belmont
15 UAB
15 Coastal Carolina
16 Texas Southern
16 Lafayette
16 North Florida
16 Manhattan
16 Robert Morris
16 Hampton

First 4 Out
Indiana
UCLA
Miami
Murray St.

December 19, 2014

2014-15 Computer Simulated College Football Playoffs—Final Four

The semifinal round of the 2014-15 College Football Computer Simulated Playoffs has been run through the simulation program, and we now know who will play for the Simper Bowl title. If you have not read our entry from December 8 explaining how and why we perform this computer simulation, read here:

https://piratings.wordpress.com/2014/12/08/2014-15-computer-simulated-playoffs/

In the first round, seeds 5-12 faced off on the higher seeds’ home fields, while seeds 1-4 received byes. In that opening round, #5 Baylor defeated #12 Kansas State 38-24; #6 Florida St. edged #11 Auburn 30-28; #7 Ole Miss beat #10 Georgia 31-28 in 2 ot; and #8 Mississippi St. trounced #9 Michigan St. 45-17.

In the quarterfinal round, #1 Alabama knocked off #8 Mississippi St. 30-17; #7 Ole Miss upset #2 Oregon 24-22; #3 TCU dismissed #6 Florida St. 42-24; and #5 Baylor won at #4 Ohio St. 40-38/
The format for the Final Four is identical to the actual FBS Playoffs. In today’s simulation, we have #7 Ole Miss facing #3 TCU in the Rose Bowl, followed by #1 Alabama and #5 Baylor facing off in the Sugar Bowl.

Without further adieu, here are the results of those games.
Rose Bowl
#3 TCU 27 #7 Ole Miss 10

Stats
First Downs: TC 19 OM 13
Rushing: TC 37-149 OM 32-89
Passing: TC 197 OM 239
Passes: TC 19-33-0 OM 21-39-4
Play-Yds: TC 70-346 OM 71-328
After 1st Qtr: TC 0 OM 0
Half: TC 7 OM 7
After 3rd Qtr: TC 20 OM 7

Sugar Bowl
#5 Baylor 26 #1 Alabama 24

Stats
First Downs BA 20 AL 19
Rushing: BA 26-79 AL 35-243
Passing: BA 419 AL 238
Passes: BA 35-53-1 AL 19-34-3
Play-Yds: BA 79-498 AL 69-481
After 1st Qtr: AL 10 BA 3
Half: AL 17 BA 16
After 3rd Qtr: BA 19 AL 17

And lo and behold, look who will be facing off in Simper Bowl VIII? It’s the two Big 12 teams that were not invited to the real inaugural playoffs. The simulator says that TCU and Baylor are the two best teams. As Former Texas Governor Rick Perry might say, “Oops!”

Return to this site on Tuesday, December 23 for the results of the simulation for the National Championship between Baylor and TCU.

December 16, 2014

2014-15 Computer Simulated College Football Playoffs—Elite 8 Round

The quarterfinal round of the 2014-15 College Football Computer Simulated Playoffs has been run through the simulation program, and unlike the first round, there were some surprises.

If you have not read our entry from December 8 explaining how and why we perform this computer simulation, read here:
https://piratings.wordpress.com/2014/12/08/2014-15-computer-simulated-playoffs/

In the first round, seeds 5-12 faced off on the higher seeds’ home fields, while seeds 1-4 received byes. In that opening round, #5 Baylor defeated #12 Kansas State 38-24; #6 Florida St. edged #11 Auburn 30-28; #7 Ole Miss beat #10 Georgia 31-28 in 2 ot; and #8 Mississippi St. trounced #9 Michigan St. 45-17.

Here is the schedule for today’s quarterfinal round games:
#8 Mississippi State at #1 Alabama
#7 Ole Miss at #2 Oregon
#6 Florida State at #3 T C U
#5 Baylor at #4 Ohio State

Without further adieu, here are the results of those games.

#8 Mississippi State at #1 Alabama
Final Score: Alabama 30 Mississippi St. 17

Stats
First Downs: AL 24 MS 16
Rushing: AL 41-209 MS 29-137
Passing: AL 226 MS 168
Passes: AL 20-34-1 MS 19-29-2
Play-Yds: AL 75-435 MS 58-305
After 1st Qtr: AL 6 MS 0
Half: AL 16 MS 7
After 3rd Qtr: AL 23 MS 10

 

#7 Ole Miss at #2 Oregon
Final Score: Ole Miss 24 Oregon 22

Stats
First Downs: OM 19 OR 19
Rushing: OM 28-118 OR 41-189
Passing: OM 309 OR 231
Passes: OM 28-44-1 OR 24-45-1
Play-Yds: OM 72-427 OR 86-420
After 1st Qtr: OM 7 OR 6
Half: OM 21 OR 12
After 3rd Qtr: OM 21 OR 19

 

#6 Florida St. at #3 TCU
Final Score: TCU 42 Florida St. 24

Stats
First Downs: TC 26 FS 18
Rushing: TC 34-177 FS 30-99
Passing: TC 289 FS 308
Passes: TC 25-38-0 FS 26-49-3
Play-Yds: TC 72-466 FS 79-407
After 1st Qtr: TC 14 FS 0
Half: TC 28 FS 14
After 3rd Qtr: TC 42 FS 24

 

#5 Baylor at #4 Ohio St.
Final Score: Baylor 40 Ohio St. 38

Stats
First Downs BA 30 OS 23
Rushing: BA 28-109 OS 45-313
Passing: BA 484 OS 210
Passes: BA 38-51-0 OS 18-29-1
Play-Yds: BA 79-593 OS 74-523
After 1st Qtr: OS 17 BA 10
Half: OS 31 BA 19
After 3rd Qtr: OS 38 BA 26

The Final Four Is Now Set. Moving on to Pasadena to play in the Rose Bowl, we have #3 TCU and #7 Ole Miss. Facing off in the Sugar Bowl, #5 Baylor challenges top-seeded Alabama.
Return to this site on Friday, December 19 for the results of that simulation.

October 21, 2014

PiRate Ratings College Football Playoffs and Bowls Coverage

For October 21, 2014

Note: You can find our award-winning ratings at http://www.piratings.webs.com

You can find numerous bowl projection sights on the Internet, so we see no reason to just put forth our projections like 100 others. The PiRate Ratings have always been a little different than other ratings. Our computer ratings use a system other than the actual scores of the games, using unique statistical data to come up with a truer score of every game before adjusting the ratings. Likewise, our bowl projections do not use the same criteria as other projectors.
We try to use our ratings to look forward and determine what the standings will look like on December 7. Then, we try to surmise the “political” nature of the bowls. For instance, you know that the ACC bowls would prefer to invite anybody other than Miami if they have a chance. When you cannot put 5,000 fans in your stadium for a home game against Cincinnati, another likely bowl team, it is not going to give a bowl like the Sun Bowl much faith that the Hurricanes will bring 20,000 fans to El Paso. Likewise, a 10-2 Auburn team is going to garner one of the big Bowl games not in the playoffs (Fiesta, Orange, Peach, or Cotton this year) before a 10-2 Washington team.

What we will do here is cover the bowls by conference. If you want to see the projections like 100 other sites, go to our website at the link below.
http://piratings.webs.com/bowlprojections.htm

Here is where we see the conferences and bowl possibilities for October 21, 2014.
Note: An Asterisk (*) means this is an at-large selection because the conference cannot meet its bowl tie-in obligation due to lack of bowl eligible team.

The Playoffs as we see it today

Sugar Bowl: #1 Ole Miss vs. #4 Ohio St.

Rose Bowl: #2 Florida St. vs. #3 Alabama

Group of 5 Conferences

American Athletic Conference
East Carolina controls its own destiny to become the first Group of 5 conference member to play in one of the Four New Year’s Eve/Day Big Bowls. At 11-1, the Pirates would top a 13-0 Marshall team. ECU has three potential possible upset games yet to play, but the Pirates are clearly better than anybody left on their schedule. Those three tough games to come are against Temple in Philadelphia on November 1; at Cincinnati on Thursday night, November 13; and a Thursday night regular season finale at home against Central Florida.

Central Florida should be on a roll when the Knights roll into Greenville for that big December 4 game. UCF should win nine games, and the Knights figure to be the second bowl selection out of the AAC.

Houston started the season with some trouble, but the Cougars have begun to play their best football of the season in the last few weeks. UH does not face ECU, so chances are slim that Coach Tony Levine’s team can sneak up and take the conference crown.

Cincinnati, Memphis, and Temple all should be bowl eligible, and there will be enough conference bids for all three.

1. Peach Bowl: East Carolina (vs. Notre Dame)
2. Birmingham Bowl: Memphis (vs. Kentucky)
3. St. Petersburg Bowl: Central Florida (vs. Miami)
4. Miami Beach Bowl: Cincinnati (vs. BYU)
5. Military Bowl: Temple (vs. Virginia)
6. Armed Forces Bowl: Houston (vs. Rutgers)

Conference USA
Marshall has a clear path to a 13-0 season, but the Thundering Herd still must get past UAB on the road and a possible tough Louisiana Tech team in the C-USA Championship Game. Marshall needs an ECU loss to occur in order to sneak into a possible Peach Bowl invitation.

Louisiana Tech appears to be the class of the West Division, but Bulldogs are no cinch with games still remaining against UAB on the road and Rice at home.

Middle Tennessee is on pace to win seven games and a mild upset over a swooning BYU Cougars team could lift that number to eight and make the Blue Raiders the third choice in the conference bowl pecking order.

The rest of the bowl invitations will go out to the three teams that can get to 6-6. As of today, we predict Rice, UAB, and Florida Atlantic will be those three teams. Failure to get three to 6-6 will help the Sunbelt or MAC.

1. Hawaii Bowl: Marshall (vs. Utah St.)
2. Bahamas Bowl: Louisiana Tech (vs. Toledo)
3. Boca Raton Bowl: Middle Tennessee (vs. Northern Illinois)
4. New Mexico Bowl: Rice (vs. Air Force)
5. Heart of Dallas Bowl: U A B (vs. Arkansas St. *)
6. Independence Bowl: Florida Atlantic * (vs. Georgia Tech)

Mid-American Conference
Toledo appears to be the top team at this point, but the Rockets are not a for-sure selection to win the MAC Championship, as there is some parity in the league this year.

Because there is not dominant team like an undefeated Northern Illinois team, there will definitely be many more bowl eligible teams than bowl spots. We foresee eight bowl eligible MAC teams with three not receiving bowl bids.

Politics and financial priorities will allow a team like Ohio to beat out Buffalo or Central Michigan if they all finish 7-5. Choosing between Ohio and Bowling Green will be tough, but we will take the Bobcats.

1. Bahamas Bowl: Toledo (vs. Louisiana Tech)
2. Boca Raton Bowl: Northern Illinois (vs. Middle Tennessee)
3. Idaho Potato Bowl: Akron (vs. Nevada)
4. Camellia Bowl: Western Michigan (vs. South Alabama)
5. Go Daddy Bowl: Ohio U (vs. Georgia Southern)

Mountain West Conference
Boise State’s upset loss to Air Force has kept the Broncos down at number three or four in the Group of 5 teams vying for the New Year’s Eve/Day bowl bid. The Broncos only other loss it to Ole Miss, which looks a lot better now than it did on August 28. BSU’s only bump in the road ahead is a home finale against Utah State on November 29.

Utah State, Colorado State, and Air Force are certainly going bowling from the Mountain Division. In the West Division, it looks like three teams could finish tied at 5-3. One of the three, Fresno State as of this week, is likely not to receive a bowl bid.

1. Las Vegas Bowl: Boise St. (vs. Stanford)
2. Poinsettia Bowl: Colorado St. (vs. Oregon St. *)
3. Hawaii Bowl: Utah St. (vs. Marshall)
4. New Mexico Bowl: Air Force (vs. Rice)
5. New Orleans Bowl: San Diego St. (vs. Louisiana-Lafayette)
6. Idaho Potato Bowl: Nevada (vs. Akron)

Sunbelt Conference
This is the only Group of Five conference with zero chance of having a team play in a New Year’s Eve/Day bowl. Georgia Southern had their chances, blowing second half leads to North Carolina State and Georgia Tech. The Eagles appear to be the class of the league this year, with Louisiana-Lafayette and Arkansas State just behind. GSU does not play either team this year and should run the table in league play.

UL-Lafayette and Arkansas State should receive some form of bowl invitation, be it from a conference tie-in or as an at-large. (Note—this was written before these two teams faced off Tuesday night.)

South Alabama may finish a game or even two behind Louisiana-Monroe and may finished tied with Texas State, but the Jaguars figure to earn the Camellia Bowl bid just up the road in Montgomery with six or more wins.

Texas State could luck into an at-large bowl invitation, since it appears there will be some Lone Star State bowl games needing an at-large team.

1. Go Daddy Bowl: Georgia Southern (vs. Ohio U)
2. New Orleans Bowl: Louisiana-Lafayette (vs. San Diego St.)
3. Camellia Bowl: South Alabama (vs. Western Michigan)
4. Heart of Dallas Bowl: Arkansas St. * (vs. U A B)
5. Texas Bowl: Texas St. * (vs. Texas A&M)

Independents
For Notre Dame, please see the Atlantic Coast Conference

The Army artillery has come up a mile short of its target this year, so the Black Knights will once again fail to achieve bowl eligibility. The Navy’s ship is taking on water quickly and appears headed to the bottom of the ocean floor. Look for the Armed Forces and Poinsettia Bowls to look elsewhere.

BYU is sinking in quicksand since the loss of their star quarterback, but the Cougars already had enough wins in the bank to see bowl eligibility.

1. Miami Beach Bowl: B Y U (vs. Cincinnati)

Power 5 Conferences

Atlantic Coast Conference (& Notre Dame)
Florida State has two tiny hurdles left to cross before waltzing into the playoffs. The Seminoles play at Louisville a week from Thursday, and they will more than likely face Duke in the ACC Championship Game. FSU has the best chance of any FBS team of running the table this season.

Notre Dame might lose to USC, but we believe the Fighting Irish still earn a New Year’s Eve/Day bowl bid at 10-2. Clemson will not be so lucky if the Irish end up 10-2, for a 10-2 Tiger team would not get into one of the Big Six bowls.

Duke could repeat as Coastal Division champions, but the Blue Devils still appear to be a two to three touchdown underdog to FSU. Any of the six Coastal teams could finish bowl eligible, and we believe six of the seven will. The bowl representatives hope the one that doesn’t is Miami, but the Hurricanes have the look of a 6-6 team. This week, we select North Carolina to finish 5-7.

1. Rose Bowl: Florida St. (vs. Alabama)
2. Peach Bowl: Notre Dame (vs. East Carolina)
3. Russell Athletic Bowl: Duke (vs. Kansas St.)
4. Capital One Bowl ^: Clemson (vs. Mississippi St.)
5. Gator Bowl: Louisville (vs. South Carolina)
6. Belk Bowl: Virginia Tech (vs. Tennessee)
7. Sun Bowl: Pittsburgh (vs. Arizona St.)
8. Pinstripe Bowl: Boston College (vs. Penn St.)
9. Military Bowl: Virginia (vs. Temple)
10. Independence Bowl: Georgia Tech (vs. Florida Atlantic *)
11. Quick Lane Bowl: North Carolina St. (vs. Maryland)
12. St. Petersburg Bowl: Miami (vs. Central Florida

^: If a Big Ten team plays in the Orange Bowl as the SEC opponent, the Capital One Bowl can issue a bid to an ACC Team

Big Ten Conference
Michigan State and Ohio State are headed to a major clash in East Lansing on November 8, and the winner can back into a playoff spot if they win out and finish 12-1. Nebraska has a minor chance to sneak in if the Cornhuskers run the table and beat the Michigan State-Ohio State winner in the conference title game.

We have removed one team from the total here this week, as we now believe that Northwestern could lose to Purdue, and neither team will win six games. Indiana and Illinois appear to have too much left to do to get to six wins. Michigan is not even among the possibilities.

1. Sugar Bowl: Ohio St. (vs. Ole Miss)
2. Orange Bowl: Michigan St. (vs. Georgia)
3. Outback Bowl: Nebraska (vs. Auburn)
4. Holiday Bowl: Wisconsin (vs. Arizona)
5. Music City Bowl: Minnesota (vs. L S U)
6. San Francisco Bowl: Iowa (vs. U C L A)
7. Pinstripe Bowl: Penn State (vs. Boston College)
8. Quick Lane Bowl: Maryland (vs. North Carolina St.)
9. Armed Forces Bowl: Rutgers (vs. Houston)

Big 12 Conference
That hissing sound you heard the last two weeks was the sound of the Big 12 Conference balloon losing all its playoff air. TCU fell out of the picture when they blew a 21-point lead to Baylor. Then Baylor and Oklahoma fell out of the race with bad losses last week.

Kansas State could sneak into the picture if the Wildcats run the table, beating TCU and Baylor, both on the road. We don’t see that happening.

Because Texas and Texas Tech do not have favorable remaining schedules and appear to be headed to losing seasons, the Big 12 will only have six bowl eligible teams, and even though none will make the playoffs, two should earn Big Six bowl bids. That will leave two bowls Texas and Armed Forces) looking for at-large invitees.

1. Fiesta Bowl: T C U (vs. U S C)
2. Cotton Bowl: Baylor (vs. Oregon)
3. Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma (vs. Washington)
4. Russell Athletic Bowl: Kansas St. (vs. Duke)
5. Liberty Bowl: West Virginia (vs. Missouri)
6. Cactus Bowl: Oklahoma St. (vs. Utah)

Pac-12 Conference
It is going to be very tough for a Pac-12 team to make the playoffs this year. Oregon could do so by running the table, but the Ducks seem to have a defensive breakdown once a month, and we see one more loss in their future. Utah and Arizona still have just one loss, but we see multiple losses ahead for both.

USC may be the best team on the coast, but the Trojans have two losses and appear to have no chance to earn a spot in the playoffs. UCLA, Washington, Arizona State, Stanford, and Oregon State should join the others mentioned in a bowl. One will have to receive an at-large invitation, but there will be one available for sure.

1. Fiesta Bowl: U S C (vs. T C U)
2. Cotton Bowl: Oregon (vs. Baylor)
3. Alamo Bowl: Washington (vs. Oklahoma)
4. Holiday Bowl: Arizona (vs. Wisconsin)
5. San Francisco Bowl: U C L A (vs. Iowa)
6. Sun Bowl: Arizona St. (vs. Pittsburgh)
7. Las Vegas Bowl: Stanford (vs. Boise St.)
8. Cactus Bowl: Utah (vs. Oklahoma St.)
9. Poinsettia Bowl: Oregon St. * (vs. Colorado St.)

Southeastern Conference
The league everybody else likes to hate can seriously stake a claim to having the top four teams in the nation and possibly top five teams. We do not believe Florida State could finish in the top half of the West Division standings this year.

In fact, our Mean ratings this week have Ole Miss, Alabama, Auburn, and Mississippi State as the top four teams. The SEC will get no more than two teams into the playoffs, because the rest of the FBS leagues would pick up their marbles and go home if more than two make it.

Our ratings show Ole Miss to be the hands-down best team in the nation at the present time, and Alabama is right there just behind. Auburn lost at Mississippi State, and the Bulldogs are still undefeated, but our ratings believe the Maroon and White will lose to both Alabama and Ole Miss.

Georgia is the wildcard in the hunt, as the Bulldogs need only beat Auburn to avoid another loss. At 7-1/11-1, UGA is one win away from a playoff spot.

Last week, Kentucky showed signs of a possible upcoming swoon, where the Wildcats could have to claw to that sixth win. Tennessee will be looking at a November where the Vols must go 3-1, but the schedule gives the Orange and White four winnable November games.

South Carolina and Missouri have shown numerous weaknesses but both teams will become bowl eligible. LSU and Texas A&M will join this group in the lower pecking order.

Florida appears to be headed to a 5-6 season, and the cancelled game with Idaho will not be made up, so Will Muschamp will go out with consecutive losing seasons in Gainesville, and the Gators will look hard at trying to lure Art Briles away from Baylor. And, it will mean that there will be one bowl (Independence) available to another team as an at-large selection.

1. Sugar Bowl: Ole Miss (vs. Ohio St.)
2. Rose Bowl: Alabama (vs. Florida St.)
3. Orange Bowl: Georgia (vs. Michigan St.)
4. Capital One Bowl: Mississippi St. (vs. Clemson)
5. Outback Bowl: Auburn (vs. Nebraska)
6. Gator Bowl: South Carolina (vs. Louisville)
7. Music City Bowl: L S U (vs. Minnesota)
8. Liberty Bowl: Missouri (vs. West Virginia)
9. Texas Bowl: Texas A&M (vs. Texas St. *)
10. Belk Bowl: Tennessee (vs. Virginia Tech)
11. Birmingham Bowl: Kentucky (vs. Memphis)

Teams that should be bowl eligible but not invited to bowls: Bowling Green, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Fresno St., and Louisiana-Monroe

Older Posts »

Blog at WordPress.com.