The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 20, 2022

PiRate Picks–October 20, 2022

A Fool’s Folly

As we always forewarn every week on this particular feature, do not use this entry as real money wagering reference material. This is purely for entertainment purposes, and this season has been a lot more entertaining to those that like comedies of errors. Last week’s picks went 3-3, which resulted in a minor loss. This week, we go with five selections, all against the spread, and a couple swimming against our normal current. Normally, we are more interested in the numbers than the names on our selections. This week, we are choosing five games where we think our pick has been undervalued. It is not our forte, but then our forte needs reinforcing.

Selection #1: Ball St. -2 1/2 over Eastern Michigan

This goes against everything we look for in making a selection. EMU has been playing hot and cold all season, and they are actually due to be hot this week. However, we think that Ball State is 7 to 10 points better, so we are taking the Cardinals as a short favorite. We considered bringing out the big 10-point teaser play with this game included to make it BSU +7 1/2, but there just weren’t two other games to combine it with to our liking.

Selection #2: Ohio +3 vs. Northern Illinois

We’d like this a lot more at +3 1/2, but we didn’t make the selection when it briefly was that number. Ohio has improved by 10 points since the start of the year, while NIU has been mediocre, and the Huskies are not playing up to their talent level. The MAC East is definitely up for grabs, and the Bobcats are in the mix. We believe Ohio will win this game outright.

Selection #3: Ole Miss + 1 1/2 vs. LSU

The Rebels have not had a lot of success in Baton Rouge, last winning there in 2008. Ole Miss has a chance to win the SEC West with Alabama coming to the Grove in November. LSU is coming off an impressive road win at Florida, and we believe the odds have been moved too many points in the Tigers’ favor based on these perceptions. Ole Miss has lapses in most of their games, but then they find their mark and go on big scoring runs, almost like a basketball team. Our belief here is that LSU might have the lead in the second half, before the Rebels score two or three times to win the game.

Selection #4: Purdue + 2 1/2 vs. Wisconsin

This was the game that had us wait to put our picks out, and it never went to 3 points during the time we isolated on it. This game may be a must-win game for the Badgers’ bowl hopes this year. Losing at Michigan State left UW with a thin margin in the hunt for a 6-6 record. On the other hand, Purdue is now squarely in the Big Ten West race with Illinois and can become bowl eligible with a win. As we said above, this game and pointspread goes against all we normally play, but maybe that’s a good thing in this strange year.

Selection #5: Penn St. -4 vs. Minnesota

Again, this is another against the current play. Normally, we would not consider a 4-point favorite coming off a deflating loss as a playable game. However, in this case, we believe the Nittany Lions might win this game by double digits. They had the third quarter lead at Michigan, and then the Wolverines proved too strong. Minnesota has not yet righted the ship after losing Tanner Morgan for the Purdue game. Morgan’s return didn’t propel the Gophers against surprising Illinois last week. Additionally, Morgan exited last week’s game with a blow to the head, and while we expect him to play this week, he won’t be 100% healthy. This looks like the perfect setting for a James Franklin-coached team to rebound with an impressive win to make next week’s very big game meaningful. Jimmy Frank will not led his team look ahead to the Buckeyes.

October 16, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Football–October 19-22, 2022

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:54 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
Appalachian St.Georgia St.2.24.02.2
Georgia TechVirginia-0.2-0.30.1
South AlabamaTroy0.30.20.1
TempleTulsa-14.3-11.9-16.4
Western KentuckyUAB5.04.95.8
TCUKansas St.6.06.05.9
ArmyLouisiana-Monroe13.613.213.4
Miami (Fla.)Duke18.214.819.0
South CarolinaTexas A&M1.60.50.7
RutgersIndiana4.13.83.2
Ohio St.Iowa22.722.725.5
Wake ForestBoston College15.914.817.1
LouisvillePittsburgh1.21.52.0
East CarolinaCentral Florida-7.5-8.8-7.8
LibertyBYU-9.7-6.7-7.8
NavyHouston-5.3-5.1-5.9
BuffaloToledo-6.3-5.3-6.2
Central MichiganBowling Green8.410.811.4
Kent St.Akron16.417.817.7
Miami (O)Western Michigan7.99.39.1
OhioNorthern Illinois-4.6-2.8-3.1
James MadisonMarshall5.36.39.3
Old DominionGeorgia Southern3.73.92.6
ClemsonSyracuse12.113.013.4
WyomingUtah St.-1.30.7-0.6
Colorado St.Hawaii11.511.211.2
New MexicoFresno St.-14.3-13.4-15.9
New Mexico St.San Jose St.-19.6-18.2-21.4
Ball St.Eastern Michigan2.73.33.3
Notre DameUNLV27.127.127.2
Oregon St.Colorado21.722.723.1
Louisiana TechRice-2.7-1.8-3.8
StanfordArizona St.4.32.52.3
CaliforniaWashington-6.0-6.5-5.8
OregonUCLA6.86.14.6
UTSANorth Texas12.312.011.5
Oklahoma St.Texas4.94.46.3
AlabamaMississippi St.16.717.018.4
LSUOle Miss0.01.10.7
BaylorKansas13.013.114.1
Texas TechWest Virginia4.83.85.8
SMUCincinnati-5.2-5.3-6.5
TulaneMemphis7.66.77.9
MissouriVanderbilt14.214.115.1
Texas St.Southern Miss.-3.3-2.5-2.3
MarylandNorthwestern20.819.822.0
CharlotteFlorida Int’l.18.216.619.1
WisconsinPurdue0.81.11.3
LouisianaArkansas St.11.19.911.6
UTEPFlorida Atlantic0.7-0.30.9
Air ForceBoise St.3.53.93.4
Penn St.Minnesota1.72.51.3
NevadaSan Diego St.-7.4-5.5-7.6

FBS vs. FCS Game

FBSFCSPiRate
TennesseeUT-Martin40.4

Teams With Byes

Arizona
Arkansas
Auburn
Coastal Carolina
Connecticut
Florida
Florida St.
Georgia
Illinois
Iowa St.
Kentucky
Massachusetts
Michigan
Michigan St.
Middle Tennessee
Nebraska
North Carolina
North Carolina St.
Oklahoma
South Florida
USC
Utah
Virginia Tech
Washington St.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

RankTeamRating
1Ohio St.132.9
2Georgia131.7
3Alabama129.7
4Michigan126.0
5Tennessee122.6
6Clemson120.1
7Oklahoma St.117.9
8Utah117.0
9Minnesota116.9
10Penn St.115.7
11Texas115.7
12Ole Miss115.6
13T C U115.4
14Mississippi St.115.3
15Purdue114.8
16Oregon114.8
17Arkansas113.7
18U S C113.5
19NC State113.3
20L S U113.1
21Baylor113.1
22Wisconsin112.9
23Kansas St.112.4
24Iowa112.3
25Florida St.112.2
26Maryland112.0
27U C L A111.9
28Kentucky111.9
29Texas A&M111.9
30Illinois111.8
31Notre Dame111.0
32Pittsburgh110.9
33Wake Forest110.8
34Cincinnati110.8
35Oklahoma110.4
36UCF110.4
37Syracuse110.3
38South Carolina109.8
39Louisville109.4
40Iowa St.109.3
41Michigan St.109.2
42Miami (Fla.)109.2
43Texas Tech108.6
44North Carolina108.3
45Oregon St.108.0
46Washington107.6
47BYU107.3
48West Virginia106.8
49Florida106.3
50Auburn105.2
51Washington St.104.0
52Missouri103.4
53Air Force103.1
54Tulane103.0
55Kansas102.7
56Stanford102.5
57Arizona St.102.5
58Boise St.102.4
59Nebraska102.3
60SMU102.1
61Houston101.6
62W. Kentucky100.3
63Toledo99.9
64East Carolina99.9
65Rutgers99.7
66Indiana99.0
67California98.4
68Memphis98.1
69U A B98.1
70James Madison97.9
71Boston College97.9
72Fresno St.97.7
73U T S A97.5
74Virginia97.2
75Georgia St.96.9
76Appalachian St.96.8
77Liberty96.2
78San Jose St.96.1
79Arizona95.7
80Troy95.4
81Virginia Tech95.2
82Duke94.9
83N. Illinois94.7
84Tulsa94.1
85Northwestern94.1
86Georgia Tech94.1
87Louisiana93.6
88Army93.5
89Marshall93.5
90South Alabama93.1
91Navy93.1
92Old Dominion93.0
93Coastal Carolina92.7
94Ga. Southern92.1
95Vanderbilt91.9
96USF91.8
97Miami (Ohio)91.8
98Buffalo91.5
99San Diego St.91.4
100Central Mich.91.4
101Utah St.91.3
102Kent St.89.9
103Southern Miss.88.9
104Ohio88.7
105Colorado88.5
106North Texas88.0
107Wyoming87.9
108Florida Atlantic87.9
109U N L V86.9
110Rice86.0
111U T E P85.8
112Ball St.85.6
113Middle Tennessee85.6
114Western Mich.85.5
115Arkansas St.85.2
116Eastern Mich.85.0
117Texas St.83.8
118Bowling Green83.7
119UL-Monroe83.1
120Colorado St.83.1
121Nevada82.0
122Connecticut81.2
123Louisiana Tech80.8
124Charlotte80.2
125New Mexico80.2
126Temple77.4
127Hawaii74.8
128Akron74.6
129New Mexico St.73.9
130Massachusetts70.2
131Florida Int’l.64.7

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Cincinnati110.6110.0111.8110.8
UCF109.9110.7110.6110.4
Tulane103.2102.7103.2103.0
SMU102.5101.7102.2102.1
Houston101.8101.0101.9101.6
East Carolina99.999.4100.399.9
Memphis98.198.597.898.1
Tulsa94.493.794.394.1
Navy93.592.993.093.1
USF92.591.391.691.8
Temple77.579.375.477.4

AAC98.598.398.498.4

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Clemson120.0120.0120.4120.1
NC State113.9112.8113.2113.3
Florida St.112.4112.0112.2112.2
Wake Forest110.8110.7110.9110.8
Syracuse111.0110.0109.9110.3
Louisville110.1109.3109.0109.4
Boston College97.998.996.897.9

Coastal Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Pittsburgh111.9110.8110.0110.9
Miami (Fla.)109.9108.7109.0109.2
North Carolina108.4108.6108.0108.3
Virginia98.097.995.897.2
Virginia Tech95.895.994.095.2
Duke94.796.993.094.9
Georgia Tech94.894.693.094.1

ACC106.4106.2105.4106.0

Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oklahoma St.118.5117.0118.1117.9
Texas116.6115.7114.8115.7
T C U116.1114.8115.4115.4
Baylor113.8112.6113.0113.1
Kansas St.113.1111.8112.4112.4
Oklahoma110.9109.8110.5110.4
Iowa St.109.4109.2109.2109.3
Texas Tech108.8107.6109.4108.6
West Virginia107.1106.8106.6106.8
Kansas103.8102.5101.9102.7

Big 12111.8110.8111.1111.2

Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.133.1131.9133.8132.9
Michigan126.3125.4126.2126.0
Penn St.116.0115.8115.4115.7
Maryland112.3112.1111.6112.0
Michigan St.110.2109.0108.5109.2
Rutgers101.0100.098.099.7
Indiana99.999.297.899.0

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Minnesota117.3116.3117.0116.9
Purdue115.6114.8114.0114.8
Wisconsin113.4112.9112.3112.9
Iowa113.4112.2111.3112.3
Illinois111.9112.5111.0111.8
Nebraska102.9102.6101.6102.3
Northwestern94.495.392.694.1

Big Ten112.0111.4110.8111.4

Conference USA
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
W. Kentucky99.799.7101.6100.3
U A B97.797.898.898.1
U T S A97.696.897.997.5
North Texas87.887.388.988.0
Florida Atlantic87.788.687.387.9
Rice85.986.086.186.0
U T E P85.985.885.785.8
Middle Tennessee85.285.785.885.6
Louisiana Tech80.781.779.880.8
Charlotte80.180.879.880.2
Florida Int’l.64.466.763.164.7

CUSA86.687.086.886.8

FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Notre Dame111.6109.9111.6111.0
BYU108.0106.3107.5107.3
Liberty95.396.796.796.2
Army93.593.693.593.5
Connecticut81.382.479.881.2
New Mexico St.73.475.372.973.9
Massachusetts70.571.368.870.2

Independents90.590.890.190.5

Mid-American Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Miami (Ohio)90.592.792.191.8
Buffalo90.192.492.091.5
Kent St.89.191.089.689.9
Ohio87.589.689.188.7
Bowling Green84.083.583.583.7
Akron74.775.273.974.6

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Toledo98.9100.1100.699.9
N. Illinois94.594.994.894.7
Central Mich.89.991.792.591.4
Ball St.85.186.385.585.6
Western Mich.85.285.985.585.5
Eastern Mich.84.985.484.685.0

MAC87.989.188.688.5

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Air Force102.8102.7103.7103.1
Boise St.102.4101.7103.2102.4
Utah St.91.191.191.791.3
Wyoming86.888.888.187.9
Colorado St.82.783.783.083.1
New Mexico80.680.779.380.2

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Fresno St.97.897.198.397.7
San Jose St.95.496.096.996.1
San Diego St.91.691.191.491.4
U N L V87.485.887.486.9
Nevada81.783.181.382.0
Hawaii74.275.574.974.8

MWC89.589.889.989.7

Pac-12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Utah116.8116.1118.3117.0
Oregon115.1114.5114.7114.8
U S C112.7113.4114.3113.5
U C L A111.3111.4113.1111.9
Oregon St.108.1107.4108.6108.0
Washington107.3107.6107.8107.6
Washington St.103.6104.1104.4104.0
Stanford103.6101.6102.3102.5
Arizona St.102.3102.1103.1102.5
California98.298.199.098.4
Arizona95.795.695.795.7
Colorado89.487.788.588.5

Pac-12105.3105.0105.8105.4

Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Georgia131.9130.6132.7131.7
Tennessee122.3122.4123.1122.6
Kentucky111.4111.9112.4111.9
South Carolina110.0109.4110.1109.8
Florida105.8107.3105.9106.3
Missouri103.4103.8102.8103.4
Vanderbilt92.292.790.791.9

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Alabama129.6128.8130.7129.7
Ole Miss116.5115.0115.2115.6
Mississippi St.115.9114.8115.3115.3
Arkansas114.2112.6114.3113.7
L S U113.5113.0112.9113.1
Texas A&M111.3111.9112.4111.9
Auburn106.2104.7104.7105.2

SEC113.2112.8113.1113.0

Sunbelt Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
James Madison95.997.7100.297.9
Georgia St.96.496.098.496.9
Appalachian St.95.697.097.696.8
Marshall93.193.993.493.5
Old Dominion92.893.193.193.0
Coastal Carolina92.092.993.292.7
Ga. Southern91.791.793.092.1

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Troy94.695.396.495.4
Louisiana92.993.294.593.6
South Alabama92.493.094.093.1
Southern Miss.88.689.189.188.9
Arkansas St.84.385.885.485.2
Texas St.82.884.284.383.8
UL-Monroe82.983.483.183.1

Sun Belt91.291.992.691.9

Conference Ratings

RankConferenceRating
1Southeastern113.0
2Big Ten111.4
3Big 12111.2
4Atlantic Coast106.0
5Pac-12105.4
6American Athletic98.4
7Sun Belt91.9
8Independents90.5
9Mountain West89.7
10Mid-American88.5
11Conference USA86.8

This Week’s Bowl Projections

BowlTeamTeam
BahamasUTSABuffalo
CureCoastal CarolinaBYU
FenwayPittsburghCentral Florida
New MexicoRiceFresno St.
L.A.UtahBoise St.
Lending TreeBall St.Marshall
Las VegasUSCMississippi St.
FriscoUtah St.Western Kentucky
Myrtle BeachMiddle TennesseeAppalachian St.
Famous Idaho PotatoEastern MichiganSan Jose St.
Boca RatonGeorgia SouthernStanford 5
New OrleansNorth TexasTroy
Armed ForcesHoustonTexas St.
IndependenceSMUArmy
GasparillaDukeWashington St.
HawaiiUTEPAir Force
Quick LaneOhio ULiberty
CamelliaToledoSouth Alabama
First ResponderUABUNLV
BirminghamSouthern Miss.Old Dominion
Guaranteed RateWisconsinWyoming
MilitaryLouisville 5Tulane
LibertyOklahomaLSU
HolidaySyracuseUCLA
TexasKansasFlorida
PinstripeNotre DameMinnesota
Cheez-ItMiami (Fla.)Texas
AlamoKansas St.Washington
Duke’s MayoWake ForestPurdue
Tony the Tiger SunNorth Carolina St.Oregon St.
ArizonaMiami (O)San Diego St.
OrangeNorth CarolinaAlabama
Music CityMarylandTexas A&M
SugarTennesseeOklahoma St.
TaxSlayerFlorida St.South Carolina
PeachGeorgiaTCU
FiestaOhio St.Clemson
Tampa BayIllinoisKentucky
CitrusPenn St.Arkansas
CottonOle MissCincinnati
RoseOregonMichigan
National ChampionshipGeorgiaOhio St.

5″ after team name indicates a team with an expected 5-7 record that has a high enough APR score to earn a bowl bid over other 5-7 schools.

October 10, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Football–October 12-16, 2021

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:05 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
LouisianaAppalachian St.5.23.83.3
South AlabamaGeorgia Southern5.95.35.2
MemphisNavy8.19.28.7
SyracuseClemson-16.5-16.5-18.6
North TexasMarshall-7.9-7.7-8.7
San Jose St.San Diego St.-5.6-5.1-7.0
OregonCalifornia18.615.617.9
Northern IllinoisBowling Green17.315.317.0
North CarolinaMiami (Fla.)2.03.34.0
Virginia TechPittsburgh4.93.13.7
KansasTexas Tech-16.2-18.9-20.6
IndianaMichigan St.1.10.82.0
WisconsinArmy11.611.613.6
BuffaloOhio U11.49.49.6
South CarolinaVanderbilt21.021.521.6
South FloridaTulsa-3.3-4.0-3.3
Boston CollegeNorth Carolina St.-0.20.90.8
MinnesotaNebraska-1.8-1.3-0.4
Miami (O)Akron24.223.724.1
CincinnatiCentral Florida24.325.225.0
VirginiaDuke16.717.218.0
NorthwesternRutgers3.01.12.1
Eastern MichiganBall St.0.5-1.2-0.5
New MexicoColorado St.-8.9-9.0-11.0
ColoradoArizona11.811.811.3
Boise St.Air Force8.07.47.6
UtahArizona St.1.40.50.2
WyomingFresno St.0.8-0.1-0.4
WashingtonUCLA1.42.52.4
Louisiana-MonroeLiberty-29.5-30.4-32.9
BaylorBYU7.06.95.4
MissouriTexas A&M-12.1-12.3-13.0
TexasOklahoma St.11.39.811.3
OklahomaTCU14.914.013.9
Central MichiganToledo2.92.22.9
Southern Miss.UAB-14.7-13.8-14.7
IowaPurdue17.217.217.0
Mississippi St.Alabama-17.5-16.4-18.5
Western MichiganKent St.1.70.61.3
Old DominionWestern Kentucky-9.1-9.8-9.6
GeorgiaKentucky26.624.927.4
LSUFlorida-5.9-6.6-5.9
TennesseeOle Miss-4.9-5.0-4.8
Texas St.Troy-4.6-7.0-6.8
Kansas St.Iowa St.-10.8-9.4-11.4
ArkansasAuburn1.52.41.0
UTSARice16.817.517.0
UNLVUtah St.-1.9-3.8-2.2
UTEPLouisiana Tech-7.1-6.7-7.1
Washington St.Stanford-0.4-0.2-0.2
NevadaHawaii10.812.511.1

FBS vs. FCS Game

FBSFCSPiRate
ConnecticutYale2.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

RankTeamRating
1Georgia135.0
2Alabama129.1
3Ohio St.126.3
4Oklahoma124.2
5Cincinnati122.0
6Iowa St.120.8
7Iowa119.5
8Texas118.8
9Florida118.5
10Clemson117.5
11Ole Miss116.9
12Penn St.116.9
13Texas A&M116.3
14Auburn115.6
15Arizona St.115.2
16Arkansas114.3
17Michigan114.1
18Notre Dame113.4
19T C U113.0
20Utah112.9
21Oregon112.8
22U S C112.4
23Coastal Carolina112.2
24Kentucky111.8
25Baylor111.4
26Oklahoma St.111.0
27Nebraska110.4
28North Carolina110.0
29Oregon St.109.9
30Miami (Fla.)109.8
31U C L A109.7
32Wisconsin109.7
33Michigan St.109.5
34L S U109.3
35West Virginia109.0
36Wake Forest109.0
37Tennessee109.0
38Washington108.9
39Mississippi St.108.7
40NC State108.3
41BYU107.9
42Indiana107.8
43Liberty107.4
44Kansas St.107.3
45Virginia Tech106.7
46Louisiana106.4
47Minnesota106.2
48Pittsburgh105.8
49Boston College105.8
50Purdue105.3
51Appalachian St.105.3
52Boise St.105.2
53Stanford104.9
54Virginia104.7
55Houston104.2
56Maryland103.0
57Louisville102.8
58SMU102.2
59San Diego St.102.0
60Texas Tech101.8
61Washington St.101.6
62Florida St.101.5
63Nevada101.3
64Missouri100.8
65Fresno St.100.6
66Air Force100.5
67Army100.4
68UCF100.2
69Georgia Tech99.8
70Colorado99.7
71South Carolina99.3
72California98.4
73Miami (Ohio)98.1
74East Carolina97.9
75Wyoming97.7
76Rutgers97.6
77Syracuse97.3
78Northwestern97.1
79U A B97.0
80U T S A96.8
81Ball St.96.3
82Central Michigan95.8
83Toledo95.6
84Tulsa95.3
85Tulane94.8
86Kent St.94.5
87Hawaii93.8
88Buffalo93.8
89Georgia St.93.6
90San Jose St.93.6
91Illinois93.5
92Eastern Michigan93.4
93Western Michigan93.2
94Memphis93.1
95Colorado St.93.0
96Florida Atlantic92.6
97Marshall92.0
98Troy91.7
99South Alabama91.4
100Arizona91.1
101Duke90.4
102Utah St.90.4
103Louisiana Tech89.7
104Northern Illinois88.8
105USF88.8
106Georgia Southern88.4
107Western Kentucky87.9
108Navy86.9
109Middle Tennessee86.5
110Ohio86.1
111U N L V85.3
112Arkansas St.83.5
113Texas St.83.1
114Charlotte83.1
115Rice82.3
116Temple81.5
117North Texas81.4
118Vanderbilt80.9
119New Mexico80.9
120Southern Miss.80.6
121U T E P80.3
122Kansas80.2
123Florida Int’l.77.7
124Old Dominion76.4
125Akron76.1
126Bowling Green74.8
127UL-Monroe74.5
128New Mexico St.71.0
129UMass71.0
130Connecticut70.1

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Cincinnati121.4121.1123.6122.0
Houston104.4103.4104.9104.2
SMU101.8102.3102.5102.2
UCF100.198.9101.6100.2
East Carolina97.797.198.897.9
Tulsa95.495.495.295.3
Tulane95.193.695.794.8
Memphis92.693.193.593.1
USF89.188.489.088.8
Navy87.086.587.386.9
Temple80.882.181.681.5

AAC Averages96.896.597.697.0

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Clemson116.8116.9118.7117.5
Wake Forest109.2108.5109.4109.0
NC State108.6108.0108.2108.3
Boston College105.4105.9106.0105.8
Louisville102.4102.1103.8102.8
Florida St.101.3101.5101.7101.5
Syracuse97.497.597.197.3

Coastal Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
North Carolina109.3109.5111.1110.0
Miami (Fla.)110.3109.2110.1109.8
Virginia Tech107.4106.3106.4106.7
Pittsburgh105.5106.3105.7105.8
Virginia104.1105.4104.5104.7
Georgia Tech99.899.999.799.8
Duke90.491.389.590.4

ACC Averages104.8104.9105.1105.0

Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oklahoma125.4123.3124.0124.2
Iowa St.121.4119.8121.2120.8
Texas119.6117.9118.8118.8
T C U113.5112.4113.1113.0
Baylor112.0111.4110.7111.4
Oklahoma St.111.3111.1110.5111.0
West Virginia110.6108.8107.8109.0
Kansas St.107.6107.5106.8107.3
Texas Tech101.9102.2101.2101.8
Kansas82.780.377.680.2

Big 12 Averages110.6109.5109.2109.7

Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.125.8125.7127.4126.3
Penn St.115.7116.5118.4116.9
Michigan113.4114.4114.6114.1
Michigan St.109.6109.6109.4109.5
Indiana107.6107.4108.4107.8
Maryland104.1102.7102.0103.0
Rutgers96.798.797.397.6

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Iowa119.1118.8120.6119.5
Nebraska110.0110.4110.7110.4
Wisconsin109.1109.1110.7109.7
Minnesota105.2106.1107.3106.2
Purdue104.9104.5106.6105.3
Northwestern97.297.396.997.1
Illinois93.393.493.893.5

Big Ten Averages108.0108.2108.9108.4

Conference USA
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Florida Atlantic91.993.292.892.6
Marshall92.091.892.492.0
Western Kentucky87.088.588.387.9
Middle Tennessee86.286.187.286.5
Charlotte82.183.283.983.1
Florida Int’l.77.177.778.377.7
Old Dominion75.976.776.776.4

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
U A B96.997.097.197.0
U T S A96.697.296.896.8
Louisiana Tech89.990.488.989.7
Rice82.382.282.382.3
North Texas81.681.581.181.4
Southern Miss.80.281.180.480.6
U T E P80.381.279.380.3

CUSA Averages85.786.386.186.0

FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Notre Dame112.7113.3114.1113.4
BYU108.0107.4108.3107.9
Liberty106.6107.5108.1107.4
Army100.5100.5100.1100.4
New Mexico St.71.472.169.671.0
UMass72.271.669.371.0
Connecticut70.671.368.470.1

Indep. Averages91.792.091.191.6

Mid-American Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Miami (Ohio)99.797.796.998.1
Kent St.94.295.693.794.5
Buffalo94.593.593.493.8
Ohio85.586.686.386.1
Akron77.576.074.876.1
Bowling Green75.275.773.574.8

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ball St.96.997.095.096.3
Central Michigan96.795.495.295.8
Toledo96.395.794.895.6
Eastern Michigan95.093.292.093.4
Western Michigan93.393.792.593.2
Northern Illinois90.088.588.088.8

MAC Averages91.290.789.790.5

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Boise St.105.0104.8105.7105.2
Air Force100.0100.4101.1100.5
Wyoming97.397.798.297.7
Colorado St.92.892.993.493.0
Utah St.90.191.090.190.4
New Mexico81.381.579.980.9

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
San Diego St.102.3101.8101.9102.0
Nevada100.7102.1101.0101.3
Fresno St.99.5100.9101.6100.6
Hawaii93.993.693.993.8
San Jose St.94.294.192.493.6
U N L V85.784.885.485.3

MWC Averages95.295.595.495.4

Pac-12 Conference
North Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oregon111.9112.8113.8112.8
Oregon St.109.8109.8110.1109.9
Washington107.8109.3109.5108.9
Stanford104.5105.4104.7104.9
Washington St.101.2102.2101.5101.6
California96.3100.298.998.4

South Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Arizona St.114.6115.4115.6115.2
Utah113.0112.9112.8112.9
U S C112.1112.0113.0112.4
U C L A109.4109.8110.0109.7
Colorado100.299.799.299.7
Arizona91.490.990.991.1

Pac-12 Averages106.0106.7106.7106.5

Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Georgia134.5134.6136.1135.0
Florida117.7119.2118.5118.5
Kentucky110.9112.7111.7111.8
Tennessee109.0108.7109.2109.0
Missouri100.9101.3100.3100.8
South Carolina99.799.498.999.3
Vanderbilt81.680.980.380.9

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Alabama129.2128.3129.9129.1
Ole Miss116.9116.7117.0116.9
Texas A&M116.0116.6116.3116.3
Auburn115.9115.0116.0115.6
Arkansas114.3114.4114.0114.3
L S U108.8109.6109.6109.3
Mississippi St.108.7108.9108.4108.7

SEC Averages111.7111.9111.9111.8

Sunbelt Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Coastal Carolina112.7110.9112.8112.2
Appalachian St.104.8104.5106.6105.3
Georgia St.94.093.393.693.6
Troy91.591.991.991.7
Georgia Southern88.488.888.288.4

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Louisiana107.1105.3106.9106.4
South Alabama91.891.690.991.4
Arkansas St.83.784.182.883.5
Texas St.84.482.482.683.1
UL-Monroe75.175.173.274.5

Sun Averages93.392.892.993.0

Conference Ratings

RankConferenceRating
1Southeastern111.8
2Big 12109.7
3Big Ten108.4
4Pac-12106.5
5Atlantic Coast105.0
6American Athletic97.0
7Mountain West95.4
8Sun Belt93.0
9Independents91.6
10Mid-American90.5
11Conference USA86.0

Bowl Projections

BowlTeamTeam
BahamasFlorida AtlanticNorthern Illinois
CureSMUCoastal Carolina
BocaLouisianaAir Force
New MexicoUTEPWyoming
IndependenceBYUUAB
Lending TreeKent St.San Jose St.
L. A.San Diego St.Arizona St.
New OrleansLouisiana TechLiberty
Myrtle BeachCharlotteAppalachian St.
Famous Idaho PotatoWestern MichiganBoise St.
FriscoUtah St.Washington St.
Armed ForcesArmyWashington
GasparillaWestern Ky.Fresno St.
HawaiiEast CarolinaHawaii
CamelliaBall St.South Alabama
Quick LaneCentral MichiganMarshall
MilitaryVirginiaHouston
BirminghamMTSUEastern Michigan
First ResponderMemphisKansas St.
LibertyTCUArkansas
HolidayNorth Carolina St.Utah
Guaranteed RateIndianaTexas Tech
FenwayCentral FloridaUTSA
PinstripePittsburghRutgers
Cheez-ItBoston CollegeBaylor
AlamoIowa St.UCLA
Duke’s MayoWake ForestMississippi St.
Music CityMinnesotaTennessee
Las VegasWisconsinOregon St.
Tax Slayer GatorVirginia TechAuburn
Tony The Tiger SunNorth CarolinaUSC
ArizonaToledoNevada
CitrusPenn St.Ole Miss
OutbackMichiganFlorida
TexasTexasTexas A&M
PeachClemsonAlabama
FiestaNotre DameMichigan St.
RoseOregonIowa
SugarKentuckyOklahoma St.
CottonOhio St.Cincinnati
OrangeGeorgiaOklahoma
ChampionshipGeorgiaOhio St.

March 13, 2021

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:43 am
Date3/13/2021
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaBaylorMichiganIllinois
2Ohio St.AlabamaIowaOklahoma St.
3HoustonArkansasKansasTexas
4Florida St.PurdueWest VirginiaVirginia
5TennesseeCreightonColoradoVillanova
6OregonUSCTexas TechMissouri
7LSUOklahomaWisconsinClemson
8BYUFloridaLoyola (Chi.)North Carolina
9RutgersSan Diego St.Virginia TechConnecticut
10St. BonaventureGeorgia TechVCUMaryland
11Wichita St.Michigan St.UCLALouisville
12Western Ky.WinthropSyracuseDrakeUtah St.Ole Miss
13UCSBLibertyUNCGColgate
14BuffaloMorehead St.Abilene ChristianE. Washington
15Cleveland St.Grand CanyonOral RobertsDrexel
16IonaMount St. Mary’sAppalachian St.HartfordNorfolk St.Prairie View A&M

First Four Out–Alternates

69 Saint Louis

70 Colorado St.

71 Boise St.

72 Xavier

Potential Bubble Busters: Memphis. Georgetown, and Oregon St.

March 8, 2021

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date3/8/2021
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaBaylorMichiganIllinois
2Ohio St.AlabamaIowaWest Virginia
3HoustonArkansasKansasVillanova
4PurdueTexasOklahoma St.Florida St.
5VirginiaTexas TechUSCTennessee
6CreightonColoradoClemsonOklahoma
7OregonMissouriWisconsinFlorida
8BYULSUVirginia TechConnecticut
9RutgersSan Diego St.Loyola (Chi.)North Carolina
10MarylandSt. BonaventureUCLALouisville
11Georgia TechMichigan St.VCUColorado St.
12Western Ky.ToledoBoise St.DrakeWichita St.Xavier
13UCSBWinthropLibertyColgate
14UNCGS. Dakota St.Morehead St.Abilene Chr.
15E. WashingtonGeorgia St.SienaCleveland St.
16NortheasternBryantGrand CanyonHartfordNorfolk St.Prairie View A&M

Teams in Bold have secured automatic bids

The Bad Side of the Bubble

69Ole Miss
70Syracuse
71Utah St.
72Saint Louis
73Seton Hall
74SMU
75St. John’s
76North Carolina St.

Bracketnomics Tutorial Release Coming This Week!

Until recently, when our breakthrough Sabertooth Baseball Game went viral due to a Facebook post that we still do not know who the benevolent benefactor of great news is, our most popular annual activity here on the PiRate Ratings has been “Bracketnomics.”

For years, we have used technical statistics and other data to isolate the real March Madness contenders from the pretenders and to eliminate certain higher seeds due to their possessing “uh-oh” stats that show them ripe for a quick upset.

We were all set to debut our latest evolution of Bracketnomics last year, until Covidnomics defeated all sports in March of 2020. It gave us extra time to scour our resources and to look for more trends, in addition to the tried and true methods we have used for years.

Coming Friday, we will release our Bracketnomics 2021 Tutorial, so you can have the weekend to look it over and use the information the best way you know how. Please let the best way you know how be a method that involves no financial risk.

The PiRate Ratings personal creation of “R+T” Rating, schedule strength, and the Four Factors still hold considerable importance, but the handicapping of each data point has changed. Other sets of data added to the mix should let you clearly see which teams have the look of past national champions, Final Four participants, and even Cinderella Mid-Majors that might be ready to wear the slipper until there are just eight teams remaining.

Oh, and if you haven’t heard about our advanced analytics tabletop baseball game that went viral over the weekend, you can check it out at our sister site: https://sabertoothbaseball.wordpress.com and order a game at https://sabertooth-baseball.square.site , or click the link in the WordPress site.

March 2, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Tuesday, March 2, 2021

HomeVisitorSpread
Central FloridaTulsa3.4
South FloridaMemphis-8.4
PittsburghWake Forest8.6
Georgia TechDuke2.4
West VirginiaBaylor-4.2
Iowa St.Texas-11.4
Texas TechTCU12.3
GeorgetownXavier-2.1
DePaulMarquette-2.6
MichiganIllinois5.5
Michigan St.Indiana-0.1
PurdueWisconsin2.1
Cleveland St.Purdue Fort Wayne10.0
Northern KentuckyDetroit-0.9
Wright St.Milwaukee15.8
OaklandYoungstown St.3.0
BuffaloAkron5.7
Central MichiganToledo-15.6
Kent St.Ohio3.4
Eastern MichiganBall St.-4.7
Northern IllinoisWestern Michigan-2.5
Bowling GreenMiami (O)5.6
Boise St.Fresno St.14.8
WagnerMerrimack6.1
South CarolinaArkansas-7.5
AlabamaAuburn10.6
LSUVanderbilt9.8
Ole MissKentucky1.0
New Mexico St.UT Rio Grande Valley6.2

Tuesday Night Must Watch TV

If you were going to choose a weeknight to stay home and watch basketball, this is the penultimate Tuesday night of the regular season. You have multiple excellent games today and tonight.

It all starts with an afternoon game at 2 PM Eastern Time on ESPN3 when Akron visits Buffalo in a key MAC game that will directly affect MAC Tournament seedings.

At 5 PM, West Virginia hosts Baylor on ESPN. After losing at Kansas, the Bears could begin to face a little jeopardy on the 1-seed line with a loss to the Mountaineers, who could move up to a 1-seed if they win out.

The regular season game of the year should have been Gonzaga and Baylor back in December, but that game became a Covid casualty. Tonight’s Michigan-Illinois game in Ann Arbor, at 7 PM on ESPN, could easily be a Final Four preview, as the two Big Ten powers both have the talent and cohesiveness to win four games in March Madness. This game should be as exciting as some of the Duke-North Carolina March games in the past, maybe even more exciting.

The Big Ten festivities don’t end with the biggie in A2. At 8PM on the Big Ten Network, Michigan State hosts Indiana in a must-win game for the Spartans. The Hoosiers have played themselves out of at-large status with too many losses.

At the same time on the ACC Network, Georgia Tech hosts Duke in what in effect is an at-large qualifying game. This is the best Yellow Jacket team in a decade or more, while Duke cannot afford another conference loss and still harbor at-large hopes.

There’s one more really Big game from the Big Ten. At 9PM, Wisconsin visits Purdue in a crucial game for Big Ten Tournament seeding. This game will air on ESPN2.

Finally at 9PM, on ESPN, Ole Miss hosts Kentucky in a must-win game. The Rebels must win tonight, beat Vanderbilt on Saturday, and then advance to the SEC Tournament Championship Game to have an at-large bid possibility.

February 19, 2021

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

2/19/2021

SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaBaylorMichiganOhio St.
2IllinoisAlabamaVillanovaIowa
3OklahomaVirginiaWest VirginiaHouston
4Florida St.USCTexasTexas Tech
5KansasVirginia TechTennesseeCreighton
6PurdueWisconsinArkansasMissouri
7RutgersColoradoBYUOklahoma St.
8ClemsonFloridaLouisvilleLSU
9OregonUCLASan Diego St.Indiana
10Boise St.Loyola (Chi.)North CarolinaSeton Hall
11MinnesotaColorado St.DrakeVCU
12BelmontWestern Ky.StanfordSt. BonaventureConnecticutSaint Louis
13ToledoWinthropColgateUCSB
14Wright St.S.F. AustinLibertyUNCG
15VermontS. Dakota St.SienaGrand Canyon
16James MadisonE. WashingtonTexas St.WagnerPrairie ViewN.C. A&T

Last 4 Byes: Seton Hall, Minnesota, Colorado St., Drake

Last 4 In: Stanford, St. Bonaventure, Connecticut, Saint Louis

First 4 Out: Xavier, Maryland, Wichita St., St. John’s

Next 4 Out: Utah St., Ole Miss, Syracuse, Georgia Tech

Note: After careful perusal of the mock top four seeds released a week ago, we have discovered some new tendencies that the Committee gave more weight to than they usually do when there is a lot more interconference play. Thus, expect our bracketology to change a little next week showing seeds in somewhat different order from what they are this week. For instance, we believe that a team like Colgate may be drastically underrated, while a team like 23-1 Belmont may be overrated a bit even after winning their 20th consecutive game last night.

November 14, 2020

Update College Football TV Schedule For November 14, 2020

Time (ET)NetworkHomeVisitor
12:00 PMABCMichigan St.Indiana
12:00 PMFOXWest VirginiaTCU
12:00 PMESPN2TulaneArmy
12:00 PMESPNVirginia TechMiami (Fla.)
12:00 PMFS1NebraskaPenn St.
12:00 PMCBSSNMarshallMiddle Tenn.
12:00 PMSECNKentuckyVanderbilt
12:00 PMACCNNorth CarolinaWake Forest

1:00 PM

BTN

Rutgers

Illinois

3:30 PM

ABC

Boston College

Notre Dame
3:30 PMESPNStanfordColorado
3:30 PMESPN2HoustonS. Florida
3:30 PMFOXArizonaUSC
3:30 PMCBSSNWestern Ky.Southern Miss.
3:30 PMACCNVirginiaLouisville

4:00 PM

FS1

Texas Tech

Baylor

5:00 PM

BTN

Purdue

Northwestern

7:00 PM

FOX

Washington St.

Oregon
7:00 PMESPNFloridaArkansas
7:00 PMESPN2TulsaSMU

7:30 PM

ABC

Michigan

Wisconsin
7:30 PMESPNUCentral FloridaTemple
7:30 PMSECNOle MissSouth Carolina
7:30 PMACCNNC St.Florida St.

11:00 PM

FS1

Washington

Oregon St.

October 14, 2020

Saturday’s College Football TV Schedule

This weekly addition to the PiRate Ratings is supposed to be the easiest edition we put out, but not this year. The TV schedule has already changed twice today after changing on Monday when Baylor postponed their game with Oklahoma St. With the cancellation of Vanderbilt and Missouri, one switch was made. Then, when it became official that Florida and LSU were moving to December 12, another change was made.

So, this is the TV schedule as of Wednesday evening, Eastern Time. We suggest you look at this feature again later in the week if other games are postponed. If the schedule changes, we will do our best to update it all the way until Saturday morning.

Time ETNetworkHomeVisitorsEntertainment Value
12:00 PMABCGeorgia TechClemsonTech turnovers could make this super blowout
12:00 PMESPNSouth CarolinaAuburnShould be rather close game–loser’s coach on hot seat
12:00 PMESPN2E. CarolinaNavyReplaces Tulsa-Cinti.
12:00 PMFOXWest VirginiaKansasProbably a dud game
12:00 PMSECNTennesseeKentuckyVols own Cats in this series, but an even matchup
12:00 PMFSNSyracuseLibertyFlames could win this one and maybe by a lot
12:00 PMESPNUSouth AlabamaTexas St.Only if you are a fan of one of the teams
12:00 PMACCNMiami (Fla.)PittsburghBoth teams coming off emotional losses
1:30 PMCBSSNUTSAArmyGame should be over quickly–maybe 120 plays
2:30 PMNBCNotre DameLouisvilleIrish need to win big to let Clemson know they are there
3:30 PMABCMemphisCentral FloridaCould it be a 90 to 100-point total?
3:30 PMSECNArkansasOle MissBefore Hogs were in SEC, this was a rivalry game
3:30 PMFSNNC St.DukeA backyard brawl that should make Pack 4-1
4:00 PMESPNMississippi St.Texas A&MAll’s not well in Starkville all of a sudden
4:00 PMACCNWake ForestVirginiaExpect a close game but maybe not entertaining
4:00 PMESPN2Georgia SouthernU MassThe Minutemen play their first game of the year
6:00 PMCBSSNLouisiana TechMarshallWinner of this game most likely wins CUSA regular season
7:30 PMABCFlorida St.North CarolinaUNC needs to top half a hundred again to be a contender
7:30 PMESPN2UTEPSouthern Miss.CANCELLED
8:00 PMCBSAlabamaGeorgiaMaybe the Regular Season Game of the Year!
8:00 PMESPNUCharlotteFlorida Int’l.CANCELLED
8:00 PMACCNVirginia TechBoston CollegeNice game but not Bama & Dogs

Coming tomorrow: our for entertainment purposes only handicapping selections that have accidentally made a decent imaginary profit this year. We must be due for a big losing week, but maybe we can back into some additional winners. We heard from a few of you that went against our warning and actually wagered on some longshot parlays that happened to win last week. Please do not think for one second that we can be this lucky again. Don’t wager real money on our fun picks!

December 26, 2015

PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated College Playoffs–Semifinal Round

The Semifinal Round of the 2015-16 PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated Playoffs have been played, and the Final Four has now been whittled down to two.

 

In case you are wondering why Michigan St., Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Stanford are the Final Four teams, this season’s simulation used the Football Championship Series format of 24 teams.  Michigan St. defeated Baylor and Iowa to make it to the semifinals.  Ole Miss defeated Houston, Clemson, and North Carolina, as the Rebels were the #16 seed and had to win a play-in game to make it to the Sweet 16.  Oklahoma defeated Michigan and Ohio St., while Stanford got here by knocking off Florida St. and Alabama.

 

Here are the Final Four Semifinal Results.

Semifinal Round 1 2 3 4 F FD Rush Pass Total
#16 Ole Miss 3 14 7 3 27 18 129 268 397
#5 Michigan St. 0 7 10 0 17 17 161 158 327
                   
#3 Oklahoma 0 3 21 7 31 22 154 247 401
#7 Stanford 7 6 0 7 20 17 169 158 327

This sets up Simper Bowl IX at Arlington, Texas, next week.  16th-seed Ole Miss will play 3rd-seed Oklahoma.

 

Fear not ye of computer simulation tremors.  Next week, we will run our annual 100 sims on the playoff games–the real ones where that sugar-addicted dude Larry Culpepper will be lurking around somewhere.

 

 

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