PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, February 5, 2023

Home	Visitor	Spread
Colorado	Stanford	5.3
Fairfield	Iona	-6.9
Manhattan	Rider	-4.0
Marist	Canisius	0.5
Michigan	Ohio St.	-0.1
Nebraska	Penn St.	-2.8
Quinnipiac	Mount St. Mary’s	11.0
Richmond	Fordham	3.0
Saint Joseph’s	La Salle	5.8
Seton Hall	DePaul	11.5
Siena	Niagara	7.4
Southern Illinois	Missouri St.	3.8
Temple	Houston	-12.4
Tulsa	Wichita St.	-5.0
Utah	California	16.5
Wisconsin	Northwestern	2.2

Pac-12 Preview

With apologies to William Shakespeare, Alas poor Pac-12. I knew the league, football lovers. No, this conference hasn’t been dead for many years like Yorick in Hamlet, but the league isn’t far from having last rites administered if it cannot find a way to partly replace UCLA and USC when the two most important members leave for the Big Ten.

San Diego State and Fresno State might stop some of the leakage. There has been talk that the league might go after Houston and SMU to get some of the Dallas and Houston markets, but neither team commands huge numbers of the two largest cities in the Southwest.

What this league must worry about is that potentially eight of the remaining teams could try to leave this league.

2022 might produce some irony. In recent seasons, there has been too much parity to produce one undefeated team. In fact, there has never been an undefeated Pac-12 team in the regular season, not even in conference play only. The last time a team ran the table in the league and in the regular season, the league was the Pac-10, when Oregon played Auburn for the National Championship in 2010.

There is a team capable of ending that 12 year drought. Read on to see which team it is. The other big news is that the league has eliminated the two divisions.

Preseason PiRate Ratings For Pac-12 Conference

Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Utah	116.4	114.9	118.3	116.5
Oregon	111.6	111.3	110.8	111.2
U C L A	108.5	108.4	110.1	109.0
Oregon St.	107.1	106.5	107.7	107.1
U S C	105.3	106.1	106.1	105.8
Washington	104.1	104.9	105.4	104.8
Arizona St.	104.0	104.0	105.3	104.4
Stanford	103.7	100.9	101.7	102.1
Washington St.	100.9	101.5	101.7	101.4
California	97.6	98.0	99.0	98.2
Colorado	98.4	96.6	97.6	97.5
Arizona	94.0	94.0	93.9	94.0
Pac-12	104.3	103.9	104.8	104.3

Pac-12 Official Preseason Media Poll

		Votes
#	Team	1st Place	Overall
1	Utah	26	384
2	Oregon	2	345
3	USC	5	341
4	UCLA	0	289
5	Oregon St.	0	246
6	Washington	0	212
7	Washington St.	0	177
8	Stanford	0	159
9	California	0	154
10	Arizona St.	0	123
11	Arizona	0	86
12	Colorado	0	58

The PiRate Ratings are designed to look at just the next week’s schedule of games and not to use to look forward. Nevertheless, here are the predicted won-loss records for the league.

Predicted Won-Loss Records

Pac-12	Conf	Overall
Utah	9-0	13-0
Oregon	8-1	10-3
UCLA	7-2	10-2
USC	6-3	8-4
Washington	5-4	7-5
Oregon St.	5-4	8-4
Washington St.	4-5	6-6
Arizona St.	4-5	6-6
Stanford	3-6	4-8
California	1-8	3-9
Arizona	1-8	2-10
Colorado	1-8	1-11

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, January 9, 2022

Home	Visitors	Spread
Indiana	Minnesota	9.9
Harvard	Yale	1.1
Evansville	Illinois St.	-0.5
Memphis	Cincinnati	8.3
Colorado	Washington	8.2
Ohio St.	Northwestern	7.6
Maryland	Wisconsin	-0.4

PiRate Ratings NCAA Tournament Spreads

Monday, March 22, 2021

Favorite	Underdog	Spread
Gonzaga	Oklahoma	16.0
Creighton	Ohio	6.2
USC	Kansas	2.2
Iowa	Oregon	6.5
Michigan	LSU	5.5
Colorado	Florida St.	1.1
UCLA	Abilene Christian	4.3
Alabama	Maryland	6.0

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Thursday, March 4, 2021

Home	Visitor	Spread
Richmond	Duquesne	6.7
Massachusetts	Saint Joseph’s	4.7
Dayton	Rhode Island	0.8
George Mason	George Washington	6.6
East Carolina	Central Florida	-1.7
Cincinnati	Vanderbilt	2.0
Liberty	Kennesaw St.	19.1
North Florida	North Alabama	2.0
Bellarmine	Stetson	4.6
Lipscomb	Florida Gulf Coast	3.9
Baylor	Oklahoma St.	11.0
West Virginia	TCU	14.2
Texas Tech	Iowa St.	15.8
Oklahoma	Texas	0.3
Kansas	UTEP	15.3
Weber St.	Northern Colorado	10.6
Portland St.	Southern Utah	-2.0
Radford	Campbell	1.7
Winthrop	Longwood	11.8
Michigan	Michigan St.	13.7
Iowa	Nebraska	15.8
Florida Atlantic	Middle Tennessee	7.1
Quinnipiac	Saint Peter’s	-2.7
Rider	Monmouth	-5.0
Manhattan	Fairfield	4.4
Siena	Canisius	6.8
North Carolina Central	Florida A&M	-0.4
Bradley	Southern Illinois	4.2
Northern Iowa	Illinois St.	2.5
Utah St.	Wyoming	14.7
Jacksonville St.	Murray St.	-0.1
Eastern Kentucky	Austin Peay	3.3
Colorado	Arizona St.	11.0
McNeese	Nicholls	-7.6
Prairie View A&M	Southern	5.7
Texas Southern	Alcorn St.	9.8
Grambling	Alabama St.	8.4
Jackson St.	Alabama A&M	7.9
San Francisco	San Diego	7.4
Santa Clara	Portland	12.5

Conference Tournament Update

America East

Semifinals, Saturday, March 6 at higher seed home court

#1 UMBC vs. #6 U Mass-Lowell

#2 Vermont vs. #4 Hartford

Atlantic Sun

Quarterfinal Round Tonight (All Games in Jacksonville)

#1 Liberty vs. #8 Kennesaw St.

#4 North Florida vs. #5 North Alabama

#2 Bellarmine vs. #7 Stetson

#3 Lipscomb vs. #6 Florida Gulf Coast

Atlantic 10

2nd Round Tonight (All Games in Richmond)

#8 Richmond vs. #9 Duquesne

#5 Massachusetts vs. #13 Saint Joseph’s

#7 Dayton vs. #10 Rhode Island

#6 George Mason vs. #11 George Washington

Big South

Semifinals Tonight at Higher Seed Home Floor

#1 Winthrop vs. #5 Longwood

#2 Radford vs. #3 Campbell

Colonial Athletic

First Round, Saturday, March 6 at Harrisonburg, VA

#8 Elon vs. #9 Towson

#7 William & Mary vs. #10 UNC-Wilmington

Horizon League

Semifinals, Monday, March 8 at Indianapolis

#1 Cleveland St. vs. #8 Milwaukee

#3 Oakland vs. #4 Northern Kentucky

Missouri Valley

1st Round, Tonight at Saint Louis

#8 Bradley vs. #9 Southern Illinois

#7 Northern Iowa vs. #10 Illinois St.

Northeast

Semifinals, Saturday, March 6, at higher seeds home court

#1 Wagner vs. #4 Mount St. Mary’s

#2 Bryant vs. #3 Sacred Heart

Ohio Valley

Quarterfinals continue, Tonight at Evansville, IN

#4 Jacksonville St. vs. #5 Murray St.

#3 Eastern Kentucky vs. #6 Austin Peay

Patriot League

Quarterfinals, Saturday, March 6 at Higher Seed Home Courts

#1 Navy vs. #9 Loyola (MD)

#4 Army vs. #5 American

#2 Colgate vs. #7 Boston U

#3 Lafayette vs. #6 Bucknell

Southern

1st Round, Friday, March 5, at Asheville, NC

#8 The Citadel vs. #9 Western Carolina

#7 Mercer vs. #9 Samford

Summit League

1st Round, Saturday March 6 and Sunday March 7 at Sioux Falls, SD

#1 South Dakota St. vs. #8 Omaha

#4 Oral Roberts vs. #5 North Dakota

#2 South Dakota vs. #7 Western Illinois

#3 North Dakota St. vs. #6 Kansas City

Sun Belt Conference

1st Round, Friday, March 5, at Pensacola, FL

#4W Arkansas St. vs. #5E Georgia Southern

#3E South Alabama vs. #6W Louisiana-Monroe

#4E Appalachian St. vs. #5W Little Rock

#3W UT-Arlington vs. #6E Troy

West Coast

1st Round, Tonight at Las Vegas

#8 San Francisco vs. #9 San Diego

#7 Santa Clara vs. #10 Portland

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

February 11, 2021

Home	Visitor	Spread
Kansas	Iowa St.	12.3
Minnesota	Purdue	0.1
Air Force	Fresno St.	-5.3
Boise St.	UNLV	10.1
California	Utah	-6.3
Stanford	Colorado	-2.4
Arizona	adoOregon St.	10.1
Arizona St.	Oregon	-2.4
Washington	USC	-13.7
Washington St.	UCLA	-5.5

An answer to a frequent question: Will you have Bracketnomics this year?

Answer: We plan to introduce an updated, new Bracketnomics edition this year. We actually hoped to have this debut last season, but obviously, the nasty virus ended the basketball season just before the NCAA Tournament brackets were chosen.

Another Question from many of you: Where have you been? You have not produced what you normally have.

Answer: Our basketball ratings were delayed because the ratings are based on advanced statistical metrics produce too much variance until about 3,500 total games have been played. Many teams have played too few games to lower the variance.

Additionally, we have been working many hours creating an advanced sabermetric tabletop baseball strategy game, one that includes many factors that other games do not have. We hope to be ready to debut this game in March. Stay tuned to this page for information on the new game and its website.

This Week’s College Football TV Schedule

Friday, December 11
Time (ET)	Network	Home	Visitor
7:00 PM	ESPN	Arizona	Arizona St.
10:00 PM	CBSSN	San Jose St *	Nevada
		* In Las Vegas
Saturday, December 12
Time (ET)	Network	Home	Visitor
12:00 PM	ABC	West Va.	Oklahoma
12:00 PM 12:00 PM	ABC FOX	Penn St. Colorado	Michigan St. Utah
12:00 PM	ESPN	Arkansas	Alabama
12:00 PM	ESPN2	Northwestern	Illinois
12:00 PM	FS1	Nebraska	Minnesota
12:00 PM	SECN	Missouri	Georgia
12:00 PM	BTN	Maryland	Rutgers
12:00 PM	ACCN	Louisville	Wake Forest
2:30 PM	CBSSN	Buffalo	Akron
3:00 PM	CBS	Army	Navy
3:30 PM	ABC	Miami (Fla.)	North Carolina
3:30 PM	FS1	Iowa	Wisconsin
3:45 PM	ESPN2	Memphis	Houston
4:00 PM	ESPN2	Kansas	Texas
4:00 PM	SECN	Vanderbilt	Tennessee
4:00 PM	ACCN	Florida St.	Duke
4:00 PM 6:00 PM	FOX CBSSN	Washington St. Wyoming	California Boise St.
7:00 PM	ESPN	Florida	LSU
7:00 PM	FS1	TCU	Louisiana Tech
7:00 PM	ESPNU	Baylor	Oklahoma St.
7:30 PM	ABC	UCLA	USC
7:30 PM	SECN	Mississippi St.	Auburn
8:00 PM	ACCN	Virginia Tech	Virginia
9:30 PM	CBSSN	Colorado St.	Utah St.
10:00 PM	ESPN2	BYU	San Diego St.
10:30 PM	FS1	Fresno St.	New Mexico
10:30 PM	ESPNU	Oregon St.	Stanford

Up to date through Saturday morning, December 12

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For March 1, 2020

Sunday’s Games

 

Home	Visitor	Spread
Charlotte	Florida Intl.	3.7
Fairfield	Rider	-2.0
Georgetown	Xavier	1.9
Houston	Cincinnati	6.9
Illinois	Indiana	4.6
Louisville	Virginia Tech	13.4
Monmouth	Manhattan	5.8
Nebraska	Northwestern	2.8
North Texas	Western Kentucky	5.5
Northeastern	Towson	4.2
Ohio St.	Michigan	4.4
Old Dominion	Florida Atlantic	4.8
Quinnipiac	Marist	5.1
Rhode Island	Saint Louis	7.0
Rice	Middle Tennessee	7.2
SMU	Wichita St.	-0.9
St. John’s	Creighton	-4.0
Stanford	Colorado	1.3
Temple	South Florida	5.1
UTEP	Southern Miss	6.6
UTSA	UAB	2.2
Wisconsin	Minnesota	4.4

 

Sunday’s Key TV Games

 

Time (EST)	Network	Home	Visitor
1:00 PM	ESPN	Houston	Cincinnati
2:00 PM	CBS	Georgetown	Xavier
2:00 PM	BTN	Illinois	Indiana
2:00 PM	ESPNU	Rhode Island	Saint Louis
4:00 PM	CBS	Ohio St.	Michigan
4:00 PM	ESPNU	SMU	Wichita St.
6:00 PM	ESPNU	Stanford	Colorado
6:30 PM	BTN	Wisconsin	Minnesota

 

Conference Tournaments Start Tuesday Night

Coming Tuesday, we begin our daily conference tournament coverage all the way to Selection Sunday. 

The Atlantic Sun, Big South, Horizon, and Patriot Leagues will get started on Tuesday. 

On Wednesday, the Mountain West, Northeast, and Ohio Valley Conferences commence post-season play. 

On Thursday, the Missouri Valley (Arch Madness) and The West Coast Conference start tournament play.

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For February 27, 2020

Thursday’s Games

 

Home	Visitor	Spread
Austin Peay	Morehead St.	12.3
Belmont	Tennessee Tech	21.1
Cal Poly	UC Irvine	-11.5
Cal St. Bakersfield	UT Rio Grande Valley	2.3
California	Colorado	-9.9
Canisius	Iona	1.7
Charleston	Delaware	4.7
Charleston Southern	Gardner-Webb	-2.2
Fairleigh Dickinson	Bryant	0.4
Florida Atlantic	UTSA	2.7
Florida Gulf Coast	Jacksonville	-0.2
Florida Intl.	North Texas	-2.7
Gonzaga	San Diego	26.3
Grand Canyon	New Mexico St.	-5.9
Green Bay	Youngstown St.	3.5
Hampton	Radford	-7.2
Hawaii	Cal St. Fullerton	7.9
High Point	UNC Asheville	-2.0
Hofstra	Towson	6.9
Idaho St.	Portland St.	-3.2
Illinois Chicago	Detroit	7.1
IUPUI	Oakland	-4.4
Kennesaw St.	Liberty	-23.0
Little Rock	UL Monroe	10.3
Long Island	Wagner	9.1
Loyola Marymount	Pacific	-1.4
Merrimack	Central Connecticut	16.0
Miami (O)	Central Michigan	-0.6
Michigan	Wisconsin	6.6
Milwaukee	Cleveland St.	6.2
Murray St.	Eastern Kentucky	12.5
Nebraska	Ohio St.	-9.8
Niagara	Saint Peter’s	-4.1
North Alabama	NJIT	4.1
North Dakota St.	South Dakota St.	2.2
Northeastern	James Madison	12.5
Northern Arizona	Montana	-0.7
Northern Colorado	Idaho	17.4
Northwestern	Illinois	-6.8
Oral Roberts	Western Illinois	15.1
Oregon	Oregon St.	10.4
Presbyterian	Longwood	0.1
Purdue	Indiana	4.7
Sacramento St.	Montana St.	4.3
Sacred Heart	St. Francis (NY)	9.9
San Francisco	Portland	15.8
Santa Clara	Saint Mary’s	-6.3
South Carolina Upstate	Winthrop	-9.7
Southeast Missouri	Eastern Illinois	-5.0
Southern Utah	Eastern Washington	2.2
St. Francis (PA)	Mount St. Mary’s	9.2
Stetson	North Florida	-5.6
Tennessee St.	Jacksonville St.	2.8
UAB	Marshall	0.7
UC Riverside	UC Santa Barbara	-0.5
UCLA	Arizona St.	0.6
UNC Wilmington	Drexel	-0.5
USC	Arizona	-3.9
UT Martin	SIU-Edwardsville	4.5
Western Kentucky	Louisiana Tech	0.1
Wichita St.	Temple	9.7

 

Key TV Games On Thursday

 

Time (EST)	Network	Home	Visitor
7:00 PM	ESPN2	Michigan	Wisconsin
7:00 PM	FS1	Purdue	Indiana
8:00 PM	ESPN+	Murray St.	Eastern Kentucky
9:00 PM	ESPN+	North Dakota St.	South Dakota St.
10:00 PM	ESPN	USC	Arizona
11:00 PM	Pac12	UCLA	Arizona St.

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For February 20, 2020

Thursday’s Games

 

Home	Visitor	Spread
Albany	UMBC	5.4
Appalachian St.	South Alabama	4.0
Arizona	Oregon St.	12.8
Arizona St.	Oregon	-0.6
Binghamton	UMass Lowell	-2.6
BYU	Santa Clara	16.4
Cal Poly	UC Davis	-2.7
Cal St. Fullerton	UC Santa Barbara	-2.9
Charleston Southern	Campbell	0.9
Cleveland St.	Northern Kentucky	-6.7
Coastal Carolina	Troy	7.9
Colorado	USC	8.6
Delaware	Northeastern	-0.3
Denver	Oral Roberts	-8.2
Drexel	Hofstra	-4.4
Eastern Illinois	Murray St.	-4.6
Eastern Kentucky	Tennessee St.	-0.4
Eastern Washington	Sacramento St.	7.0
Gonzaga	San Francisco	18.1
Hampton	Gardner-Webb	-4.5
High Point	Presbyterian	0.5
Idaho	Northern Arizona	-2.2
Indiana St.	Northern Iowa	-3.3
Iowa	Ohio St.	1.6
Jacksonville	Lipscomb	4.0
Jacksonville St.	Southeast Missouri	9.8
James Madison	Elon	3.1
Liberty	North Florida	9.6
Morehead St.	Belmont	-11.9
Nebraska	Michigan St.	-10.9
New Hampshire	Hartford	3.4
NJIT	Stetson	2.7
North Alabama	Kennesaw St.	14.7
Northern Colorado	Southern Utah	7.2
Portland	Pepperdine	-5.3
Portland St.	Montana St.	3.7
Purdue Fort Wayne	Omaha	-0.5
Radford	UNC Asheville	11.3
Saint Mary’s	Loyola Marymount	16.1
Seattle	Grand Canyon	4.1
SIU-Edwardsville	Austin Peay	-9.9
South Carolina Upstate	Longwood	1.5
Southern Illinois	Evansville	9.4
Stony Brook	Vermont	-3.7
Temple	Connecticut	0.2
Tennessee Tech	UT Martin	0.7
Texas St.	Georgia Southern	6.1
Towson	William & Mary	5.2
UC Riverside	Hawaii	2.0
UT Arlington	Georgia St.	1.8
Utah	UCLA	2.3
Utah Valley	Cal St. Bakersfield	1.7
Washington	Stanford	2.7
Wichita St.	South Florida	11.1
Youngstown St.	Wright St.	-5.8

 

Thursday’s Key Games

Maybe the best top games of the week

 

Time (EST)	Network	Home	Visitor
7:00 PM	ESPN	Iowa	Ohio St.
7:00 PM	ESPN+	Liberty	North Florida
7:00 PM	ESPNU	Stony Brook	Vermont
8:00 PM	ESPN+	Texas St.	Georgia Southern
9:00 PM	ESPN	Arizona St.	Oregon
9:00 PM	ESPN2	Colorado	USC

 

The Big Three Mid-Major Conference Games on TV Tonight

Liberty vs. North Florida–The winner most likely will end up with the number one seed in the Atlantic Sun Conference.  North Florida won the first contest 71-70 in a tight game that stayed close for 40 minutes.  At the time, Liberty was 19-1 and on the cusp of becoming ranked in the top 25.

North Florida’s starting lineup all average double figure points per game.  The Ospreys are by far the best shooting team in the A-Sun, both inside and outside the 3-point line and at the foul line.

Liberty has the best defense in the A-Sun, and the Flames go seven deep with little drop in talent.  With the A-Sun Tournament played on the home courts of the higher seeds, and with these two teams being the two powers of the league, the NCAA Tournament bid will be decided when these two probably play for a third time.  Home court advantage will probably decide it.  Liberty has the edge tonight, which should give the Flames the edge when they play again in a couple weeks.

 

Stony Brook vs. Vermont–Vermont has a 2 1/2 game lead over second place Stony Brook, so this is a must win for Stony Brook as far as the regular season conference race goes.  The conference tournament is played on the home courts of the higher seeds, so getting the #1 seed means home court advantage all the way to the Championship.

These are the top two programs in the league.  Vermont has won 14 of their last 15 games, and they have a conference scoring margin of +15.8 points per game.  The Catamounts dominate every important analytic statistic in the America East Conference.  

On paper, Stony Brook doesn’t have the resume of a team that looks capable of beating Vermont.  The Seawolves barely hold control of the number two spot in the league, but they have done something no other A-East team has done–they beat Vermont, and they did it in Burlington no less.

 

Texas St. vs. Georgia Southern–These two teams are still in contention for the regular season Sun Belt Conference Championship, as they are tied for third with 10-6 SBC records, just two games behind league leader Little Rock and one game behind second place Georgia St.  

Texas St. has one of the top players in the league in senior guard Nijel Pearson.  Pearson combines excellent long range shooting with the ability to get inside and score on the offensive side and fight for rebounds on the defensive end.  Earlier this season, he almost single-handily kept Texas St. in the game at Baylor, and the Bobcats scared the top-ranked team in Waco before finally losing by nine points.

Georgia Southern has a small but quick lineup, and the Eagles are fun to watch play.  This could be the most exciting game of the night.