A Little February Madness

Who’s In, Who’s On The Bubble, Who’s Out

As we mentioned in the previous article earlier this week, the first conference tournament action begins Tuesday, March 2.  It’s time to take a serious look at which teams are in the Big Dance, which teams are on the bubble, and which teams are on the outside looking in.  As of today, we believe 51 teams have already done enough to earn bids to the NCAA Tournament.  That leaves 14 teams left to gain admission to the dance.  We believe 21 teams are serious bubble teams as of today.

First let us start with the conferences that will receive only one bid.  This means only the conference tournament champion will advance to the dance, or in the case of the Ivy League, the regular season champ.

America East

Stony Brook has clinched the regular season title, and Coach Steve Pikiell may be on the radar screen at schools in more prestigious leagues.  The Seawolves have been a D1 school less than 10 years, and their defense might give someone fits in a first round game.  Of course, they have to win the automatic bid.  Vermont, Maine, and Boston U. are all capable of winning this tournament.  BU has underachieved somewhat this year with all the experienced seniors on their roster.

Atlantic Sun

This isn’t going to be another season where the league representative comes within one shot of beating Duke in the opening round.  None of the teams in this league are capable of winning a first round game.  Jacksonville currently leads Campbell, Belmont, and Lipscomb by a game with one game to go.  East Tennessee and Mercer are good enough to win three games in three days. 

Jacksonville won the regular season title last year, but the Dolphins failed to win the tournament.  It’s been almost a quarter century since they last made it to the Dance.  The days of Artis Gilmore and Rex Morgan led the Dolphins to the Championship Game.

Big Sky

Weber State isn’t as good this year as they were last year, but the Wildcats could make the Dance this year after settling for the NIT last year.  Northern Colorado has overachieved this year, while Montana State has underachieved.  Montana always seems to be in the mix, and the Grizzlies are there again this year.  Weber State should be a considerable favorite, but any of these other three could beat them on a given night.

Big South

Cliff Ellis could be on the cusp of taking his fourth different team to the NCAA Tournament.  His Coastal Carolina Chanticleers won the regular season title and are the favorites to win the conference tournament.  It won’t be easy, because CCU split with second place teams Winthrop and Radford.  Radford won the tournament last year, and the Highlanders have the most dominating player in the league in center Art Parakhouski.

Big West

UC Santa Barbara leads Pacific by a game and a half after Pacific was upset last night by UC Riverside.  This is one conference where we actually expect someone other than the top two teams to win the automatic bid.  Long Beach State and Cal St. Fullerton look like teams to watch out for, but even last place UC-Irvine could win this tournament.

Colonial Athletic

In past years, there were possible at-large teams in this conference, but even current number one team Old Dominion is not even worthy of the back of the bubble.  Besides ODU, Northeastern, George Mason, Va. Commonwealth, William & Mary, Drexel, and Hofstra all have the talent to win this tournament.  Old Dominion won the College Insider Tournament last year, and they are tournament savvy.

Ivy League

Cornell is on the verge of securing the Ivy League championship again, and this year, the Big Red have the talent to shock an opponent in the first round and maybe first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament.  Cornell hosts Princeton tonight, and a win over the Tigers would mean they would need to win just one of their final three games to win the league title.  If Princeton wins, then these teams could be headed toward a playoff game in a couple weeks.

Metro Atlantic

Siena had a chance to get onto the bubble for an at-large bid, but Butler ended that in the Bracketbuster last week.  Now, the Saints have to win the MAAC Tournament to get back to the Dance.  Iona and Fairfield are not in Siena’s class, but either team could beat Siena in a title game.

Mid-American

This conference has fallen back in the pack in recent years.  Kent State and Akron have won three more conference games than any other MAC team, and they will be heavy co-favorites in the tournament.  

Mid-Eastern Athletic

Morgan State has dominated this league since Todd Bozeman took over as head coach, and this year is more of the same.  MSU leads Delaware State by two and a half games, and it will be a major upset if they don’t four-peat.

Northeast

The four teams picked to contend for the league championship will finish one-two-three-four in the regular season.  Robert Morris, Quinnipiac, Mt. St. Mary’s, and Long Island should be the four teams making it to the conference tournament semifinals.  Any of these four could emerge victorious.

Ohio Valley

Morehead State pinned the first conference loss on Murray State last night, and these two teams should play a rubber game in the conference tournament championship game.

Patriot League

This league is rather balanced, and there is no clear-cut favorite.  There isn’t much difference between first place Lehigh and last place Army.  Bucknell has begun to play like they used to earlier in the decade; the Bison have won seven of their last nine, but they got it handed to them Wednesday night at Lehigh.

Southern

With Davidson down following the graduation of Stephen Curry and Andrew Lovedale, this race is up for grabs.  Wofford, Western Carolina, College of Charleston, and Appalachian State are the four best teams, but none are dominant in this league.

Southland

Sam Houston and Stephen F. Austin have been the cream of this crop for a couple of years, and one of these two should win the automatic bid.

Southwestern Athletic

Jackson State is the only team capable of escaping a play-in round game.  If any other SWAC team wins the conference tournament, that team will be in Dayton on Tuesday, March 16.

Summit League

Oakland and IUPUI are the co-favorites heading into the conference tournament.  Both teams could be an interesting first round matchup as a 13 or 14-seed.

Sunbelt

Eight teams are strong enough to win this conference’s automatic bid.  None of them are dominant enough to be a true favorite.  Troy, Middle Tennessee, Western Kentucky, Florida Atlantic, North Texas, Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, and Denver will make this tournament very interesting.

Western Athletic

Utah State has emerged yet again as the class of the league, but the Aggies have not done enough to make the bubble.  New Mexico State, Nevada, and Louisiana Tech have the talent to knock USU out of the Dance, but the Aggies are a strong favorite.

Here is a look at the conferences where an upset in the conference tournament will merit an extra team getting a bid.

Conference USA

No longer is Memphis a sure thing.  In fact, the Tigers probably must win the conference tourney to get in.  UTEP is the team that has done enough to earn an at-large bid this year.  Memphis and UAB are on the Bubble, but they are far down on the list.  Marshall and Tulsa are capable of running the table in the tournament and sneaking in with the automatic bid.

Horizon

Butler is in the field of 65 regardless of how the Bulldogs perform in the Horizona League Tournament.  There really isn’t a team that can be considered a serious upset threat to Butler.  While Green Bay and Wright State are the best of the rest, lowly Detroit has been the only league team to play Butler close, losing by two in overtime and by five in the two meetings.

Missouri Valley

Northern Iowa will earn an at-large bid even though the Panthers have lost two of their last four games.  Wichita State, Illinois State, Bradley, and Creighton have the talent to run the table in St. Louis.

Pacific-10

Could it be that this once top conference will earn just one bid?  If California wins the conference tournament, it could happen.  It could even happen if Cal loses prior to the Pac-10 tournament championship game.

West Coast

Gonzaga is in the NCAA Tournament.  St. Mary’s is close to being in, but they are just a bubble team.  Portland is strong enough to upset St. Mary’s and Gonzaga. 

Here is a list of the conferences that will receive more than one bid.

Atlantic Coast

Duke, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Florida State, and Wake Forest are in, even though Va. Tech has a poor non-conference schedule.

Clemson and Georgia Tech are on the Bubble.  Neither will get in with a 7-9 conference record in this year’s ACC.

Atlantic 10

This is the sexy conference this year.  Seven teams still have a legitimate shot at earning bids, and a minimum of three will get in.

Temple, Richmond, and Xavier are virtual shoo-ins.  Rhode Island is on the top of the Bubble, while Charlotte and Dayton are on the regular Bubble.  St. Louis has work to do, but the red-hot Billikens can place themselves squarely on the Bubble by winning their final three regular season games.

Big East

This is clearly the top conference in the land this year.  No fewer than six teams will earn bids, and as many as nine could get invitations.

Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, and Georgetown are in.  Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame, Seton Hall, Connecticut, and Cincinnati are on the Bubble.  At least two of these teams should play themselves into the high end of the Bubble, while a third could sneak into the act if there aren’t many upsets in the other leagues. 

Seton Hall has a very favorable schedule, and if the Pirates edge Marquette this weekend, they could finish 10-8 in the league.  They are the longest shot, and they could put themselves in position to be in position on Selection Sunday.  You have to believe that any team that finishes above .500 in this league this year will receive serious consideration.

Big Ten

Purdue took a big blow with the loss of Robbie Hummel, but all that means is they may have to settle for a 2-seed.  Ohio State, Michigan State, and Wisconsin are also in.  Illinois is on the firm part of the Bubble, while Minnesota and Northwestern are on the bottom of the Bubble.  Both teams have to play two more on the road, and it looks like the NIT for both.

Big 12

Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Texas, and Baylor are in the Dance.  Texas A&M as at the top of the Bubble.  The Aggies close at home with Texas and Oklahoma State and at Oklahoma.  Two wins gets them in for sure, while one win keeps them on the Bubble.

Oklahoma State is on the Bubble.  They close with Kansas at home, Texas A&M on the road, and Nebraska at home.  If they only win against the Cornhuskers, they have to win twice in the Big 12 Tournament to be under consideration and thrice to be sure things.

Mountain West

New Mexico and BYU are both in the Dance.  Both could move up as high as 5-seeds in the field of 65.

UNLV and San Diego State are on the Bubble.  The Runnin’ Rebels benefit from hosting the tournament much to Lobo Coach Steve Alford’s and Aztec Coach Steve Fisher’s chagrin.

Southeastern

Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee are in.  Florida is on the top part of the Bubble and needs just one more signature win or two more wins of any kind.  Mississippi State is on the regular Bubble and appears to be headed to the West Division title.  Ole Miss must win out and then get to Saturday in the conference tournament.

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For College Football–Regular Season Final

NCAA 2009 College Football Playoff Simulation

The Playoffs You Wished For 

Welcome to season number three of the NCAA College Football Playoff Simulation.  For those reading this blog for the first time, the PiRate College Football Playoffs take the champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC as automatic qualifiers.  Any of the remaining conference champions (including the top independent) that finish in the top 16 in the final regular season BCS Standings also qualify automatically.  At-large teams are then selected in the order of BCS finish until 12 total teams have been selected.  The 12 teams are then seeded by BCS ranking with no maximum number of teams per conference.

 

Here is how the 12 teams were selected for the 2009 playoffs.

 

Top Six Conference Champions

ACC–Georgia Tech 11-2           #9 Seed

Big East–Cincinnati 12-0                   #3 Seed

Big Ten–Ohio State 10-2         #8 Seed

Big 12—Texas 13-0                    #2 Seed

Pac-10—Oregon 10-2                #7 Seed

SEC—Alabama 13-0                             #1 Seed

 

Automatic Qualifiers By Virtue Of Top 16 In BCS

MWC—T C U 12-0                       #4 Seed

WAC—Boise State 13-0             #6 Seed

 

Top Four At-Large To Fill Out 12-Team Field

Florida 12-1                                 #5 Seed

Iowa 10-2                                    #10 Seed

Virginia Tech 10-2                     #11 Seed

L S U 9-3                                      #12 Seed

 

The PiRate Playoff System uses the top 11 bowl games to play the four rounds.  The 5^th through 12^th seeds must play in the first round, while the top four seeds receive byes to the quarterfinals.

Opening Round

 

Outback Bowl    #5 Florida vs. #12 L S U  Dec 17

Alamo Bowl       #6 Boise State vs. #11 Virginia Tech  Dec 18

Holiday Bowl     #7 Oregon vs. #10 Iowa  Dec 19

Gator Bowl         #8 Ohio State vs. #9 Georgia Tech  Dec 19

 

Quarterfinal Round

 

Cotton Bowl                #4 T C U vs. Outback Bowl Winner  Jan 1

Capital One Bowl       #3 Cincinnati vs. Alamo Bowl Winner  Jan 1

Rose Bowl                             #2 Texas vs. Holiday Bowl Winner  Jan 1

Sugar Bowl                  #1 Alabama vs. Gator Bowl Winner  Jan 1

 

Semifinal Round

 

Fiesta Bowl        Sugar Bowl Winner vs. Fiesta Bowl Winner Jan 9

Orange Bowl     Rose Bowl Winner vs. Capital One Bowl Winner Jan 9

 

National Championship Game

 

Fiesta Bowl Winner vs. Orange Bowl Winner  Jan 23

 

1. This system awards the four best teams with byes.

2. This system not only keeps the bowls alive, but it gives them more importance and prestige, as 11 bowls decide the title.

3. Instead of undefeated Cincinnati, TCU, and Boise State getting left out of the national championship picture, number 13 Penn State is the first team left out.  This is much more fair, as this system will always allow a 12-0 team to have a chance regardless of whether it is Alabama or Boise State.

4. The remaining bowls would not have to settle for 6-6 teams.  The rules could demand at least 7 wins as a minimum.

5. Three of the four rounds would occur during winter break for the schools, thus quashing the myth that players would miss too much time.

 

Check back on December 20 for simulated results of the first round games.

 

Final Regular Season PiRate Ratings

 

The Army-Navy game must still be played, but that game doesn’t warrant an extra week’s worth of ratings.  Neither team can break the top 25 even if they win 222-0.  The game still has bowl implications.  If Army wins, the Cadets will advance to the Eagle Bank Bowl to face Temple.  If Navy wins, then UCLA takes Army’s place in Washington, DC.

NCAA Top 25 For December 7, 2009
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Alabama	133.0	13	0
2	Texas	131.4	12	0
3	Florida	128.2	12	1
4	T C U	125.4	12	0
5	Oklahoma	124.0	7	5
6	Boise State	120.9	12	0
7	Virginia Tech	120.5	9	3
8	Oregon	119.8	10	2
9	Georgia Tech	119.4	11	2
10	Nebraska	118.8	9	4
11	Texas Tech	117.9	8	4
12	Penn State	117.7	10	2
13	Ohio State	117.6	10	2
14	Miami (Fla)	117.4	9	3
15	Stanford	116.9	8	4
16	Arkansas	115.5	7	5
17	Southern Cal	115.1	8	4
18	Cincinnati	114.9	12	0
19	Iowa	114.8	10	2
20	Arizona	114.0	8	4
21	Oklahoma State	113.9	9	3
22	Pittsburgh	113.7	9	3
23	Ole Miss	113.2	8	4
24	L  S  U	112.5	9	3
25	Oregon State	112.0	8	4
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Clemson	6-2	8-5	111.7
Florida State	4-4	6-6	107.6
Boston College	5-3	8-4	107.1
Wake Forest	3-5	5-7	104.8
North Carolina State	2-6	5-7	102.7
Maryland	1-7	2-10	93.0
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Virginia Tech	6-2	9-3	120.5
Georgia Tech	7-1	11-2	119.4
Miami-FL	5-3	9-3	117.4
North Carolina	4-4	8-4	110.9
Duke	3-5	5-7	98.4
Virginia	2-6	3-9	94.8

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Cincinnati	8-0	12-0	114.9
Pittsburgh	5-2	9-3	113.7
West Virginia	5-2	9-3	106.0
Connecticut	3-4	7-5	105.8
Rutgers	3-4	8-4	102.1
South Florida	3-4	7-5	101.8
Syracuse	1-6	4-8	93.9
Louisville	1-6	4-8	90.5

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Penn State	6-2	10-2	117.7
Ohio State	7-1	10-2	117.6
Iowa	6-2	10-2	114.8
Wisconsin	5-3	9-3	108.5
Michigan State	4-4	6-6	101.5
Northwestern	5-3	8-4	99.3
Purdue	4-4	5-7	99.0
Minnesota	3-5	6-6	97.9
Michigan	1-7	5-7	96.6
Illinois	2-6	3-9	96.0
Indiana	1-7	4-8	90.9

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	6-2	9-4	118.9
Missouri	4-4	8-4	104.8
Kansas	1-7	5-7	103.9
Kansas State	4-4	6-6	99.4
Colorado	2-6	3-9	97.4
Iowa State	3-5	6-6	94.9
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Texas	8-0	13-0	131.4
Oklahoma	5-3	7-5	124.0
Texas Tech	5-3	8-4	117.9
Oklahoma State	6-2	9-3	113.9
Texas A&M	3-5	6-6	103.4
Baylor	1-7	4-8	96.6

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
East Carolina	7-1	9-4	105.2
Central Florida	6-2	8-4	104.1
Southern Mississippi	5-3	7-5	100.9
Marshall	4-4	6-6	92.4
U A B	4-4	5-7	91.0
Memphis	1-7	2-10	83.4
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Houston	6-2	10-3	107.4
Tulsa	3-5	5-7	91.6
U T E P	3-5	4-8	90.8
S M U	6-2	7-5	88.4
Rice	2-6	2-10	76.4
Tulane	1-7	3-9	71.1

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		6-6	105.9
Navy		8-4	100.6
Army		5-6	82.0

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	7-1	9-3	100.7
Ohio U	7-1	9-4	94.9
Buffalo	3-5	5-7	92.4
Bowling Green	6-2	7-5	91.4
Kent St.	4-4	6-6	84.7
Akron	2-6	3-9	81.5
Miami (O)	1-7	1-11	76.3
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Michigan	8-0	11-2	109.0
Northern Illinois	5-3	7-5	95.1
Toledo	3-5	5-7	87.1
Western Michigan	4-4	5-7	86.2
Ball State	2-6	2-10	83.0
Eastern Michigan	0-8	0-12	74.2

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	8-0	12-0	125.4
B Y U	7-1	10-2	111.1
Utah	6-2	9-3	107.7
Air Force	5-3	7-5	100.7
Wyoming	4-4	6-6	87.9
UNLV	3-5	5-7	86.8
Colo. State	0-8	3-9	86.1
S. D. State	3-5	5-7	85.2
New Mexico	1-7	1-11	77.8

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oregon	8-1	10-2	119.8
Stanford	6-3	8-4	116.9
Southern Cal	5-4	8-4	115.1
Arizona	6-3	8-4	114.0
Oregon St.	6-3	8-4	112.0
California	5-4	8-4	108.6
U C L A	3-6	6-6	105.3
Arizona St.	2-7	4-8	102.1
Washington	4-5	5-7	103.6
Wash. St.	0-9	1-11	70.8

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida	8-0	12-1	128.2
Tennessee	4-4	7-5	110.9
South Carolina	3-5	7-5	110.9
Georgia	4-4	7-5	110.4
Kentucky	3-5	7-5	104.4
Vanderbilt	0-8	2-10	93.1
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Alabama	8-0	13-0	133.0
Arkansas	3-5	7-5	115.5
Ole Miss	4-4	8-4	113.2
L S U	5-3	9-3	112.5
Auburn	3-5	7-5	107.7
Mississippi State	3-5	5-7	104.2

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Troy	8-0	9-3	99.0
Middle Tennessee	7-1	9-3	96.2
Louisiana-Monroe	5-3	6-6	86.8
Arkansas State	3-5	4-8	85.8
Florida Atlantic	5-3	5-7	84.6
U. of Louisiana	4-4	6-6	83.7
Florida International	3-5	3-9	80.3
North Texas	1-7	2-10	76.4
Western Kentucky	0-8	0-12	73.7

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	8-0	13-0	120.9
Nevada	7-1	8-4	108.6
Louisiana Tech	3-5	4-8	99.8
Fresno State	6-2	7-4	99.0
Utah State	3-5	4-8	91.9
Idaho	4-4	7-5	89.6
Hawaii	3-5	6-6	87.7
San Jose State	1-7	2-10	78.5
New Mexico State	1-7	3-10	71.0

 

Bowl Lineups

Day	Date	Time EST	Bowl	Team		Team
Sat	19-Dec	4:30 PM	New Mexico	Wyoming	vs.	Fresno State
Sat	19-Dec	8:00 PM	St. Petersburg	Rutgers	vs.	Central Florida
Sun	20-Dec	8:15 PM	New Orleans	Middle Tenn	vs.	Southern Miss
Tue	22-Dec	8:00 PM	Las Vegas	B  Y  U	vs.	Oregon State
Wed	23-Dec	8:00 PM	Poinsettia	Utah	vs.	California
Thu	24-Dec	8:00 PM	Hawaii	Nevada	vs.	S  M  U
Sat	26-Dec	1:00 PM	Little Caesar’s Pizza	Marshall	vs.	Ohio U
Sat	26-Dec	4:30 PM	Meineke Car Care	North Carolina	vs.	Pittsburgh
Sat	26-Dec	8:00 PM	Emerald	Southern Cal	vs.	Boston College
Sun	27-Dec	8:15 PM	Music City	Kentucky	vs.	Clemson
Mon	28-Dec	5:00 PM	Independence	Georgia	vs.	Texas A&M
Tue	29-Dec	4:30 PM	Eagle Bank	Temple	vs.	Army/UCLA
Tue	29-Dec	8:00 PM	Champs Sports	Miami-Fl	vs.	Wisconsin
Wed	30-Dec	4:30 PM	Humanitarian	Idaho	vs.	Bowling Green
Wed	30-Dec	8:00 PM	Holiday	Nebraska	vs.	Arizona
Thu	31-Dec	11:00 AM	Armed Forces	Houston	vs.	Air Force
Thu	31-Dec	2:00 PM	Sun	Stanford	vs.	Oklahoma
Thu	31-Dec	3:30 PM	Texas	Missouri	vs.	Navy
Thu	31-Dec	6:00 PM	Insight.com	Iowa State	vs.	Minnesota
Thu	31-Dec	7:30 PM	Chick-fil-A	Tennessee	vs.	Va. Tech
Fri	1-Jan	11:00 AM	Outback	Auburn	vs.	Northwestern
Fri	1-Jan	1:00 PM	Capital One	Penn State	vs.	L  S  U
Fri	1-Jan	1:00 PM	Gator	West Va.	vs.	Florida State
Fri	1-Jan	5:10 PM	Rose	Oregon	vs.	Ohio State
Fri	1-Jan	8:00 PM	Sugar	Florida	vs.	Cincinnati
Sat	2-Jan	12:00 PM	International	South Florida	vs.	Northern Illinois
Sat	2-Jan	2:00 PM	Cotton	Oklahoma St.	vs.	Ole Miss
Sat	2-Jan	2:00 PM	Papajohns.com	Connecticut	vs.	South Carolina
Sat	2-Jan	5:30 PM	Liberty	Arkansas	vs.	East Carolina
Sat	2-Jan	9:00 PM	Alamo	Texas Tech	vs.	Michigan St.
Mon	4-Jan	8:00 PM	Fiesta	Boise State	vs.	T C U
Tue	5-Jan	8:00 PM	Orange	Georgia Tech	vs.	Iowa
Wed	6-Jan	8:00 PM	G M A C	Troy	vs.	Central Mich.
Thu	7-Jan	8:00 PM	Nat’l Championship	Alabama	vs.	Texas

Coming This Week–What you can do to help bring about a college football playoff

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For College Football–November 30-December 12

It’s The Week We’ve All Been Waiting For

 

It seems like just last week the college football season kicked off, and here it is the end of the regular season.  A handful of games can potentially scramble the bowl bids that will go out Sunday.  With the holidays bringing the five PiRates together under the same roof in northwest Wisconsin for too much turkey and other booty, we stayed up late gathering information for this special bowl edition.  We think through hard work and phone calls to contacts in multiple locations, we have one of the best views of the bowl games.

This edition will not be a speculative one.  We are actually trying to use information we have gathered to report where we believe the bowls are looking with six days to go.

The BCS Bowls

National Championship Game:  Obviously the winner of this week’s Alabama-Florida game in the SEC Championship will finish number one.  If Texas wins, then everything is rather easy.  The Longhorns will finish number two.  Here’s where things get dicey.  If Texas loses, there will be controversy no matter which team makes it to Pasadena.  TCU would be the logical choice, but Cincinnati could edge ahead of the Horned Frogs with a convincing win over Pittsburgh.  And, if Alabama were to edge Florida by a point or win in overtime, there is still a possibility that Alabama and Florida could meet in a rematch.  Remember something; part of the BCS equation is human voting.  The fourth estate has never been confused for being honest and just.  All it takes is for a few voters to move TCU down one spot, and the fix would be in.

We believe Nebraska’s lack of offense will make this all superfluous.  Texas will win by double digits this week and face the SEC winner for the national championship.  We’ve taken a vote here in the Northwoods; one of us believes Florida will win this week.  One of us believes Alabama will win, and the other three consider it a tossup.  It should be the next “greatest game,” in the mold of Ohio State and Michigan in 2006, Florida State and Florida in 1996, Notre Dame and USC in 1988, and the two greatest late season matchups of #1 vs. #2—Oklahoma and Nebraska in 1971 and Notre Dame and Michigan State in 1966. 

Orange Bowl: The winner of this week’s Clemson-Georgia Tech game for the ACC Championship will automatically go to Miami.  We believe Clemson has a better than 50% chance of pulling off the upset.  In their regular season game, Clemson’s comedy of errors led to the Yellow Jackets getting a big lead.  The Tigers made a great comeback and almost pulled it off.  We thing CU gets revenge this week and heads to Miami with a weak 8-4 record.  The Orange Bowl will get the third selection in the at-large draft if Texas wins.  The Sugar and Fiesta Bowls will have already picked because they will have lost teams to the National Championship Game.  With Alabama or Florida and Iowa already taken off the board, this pick will come down to either the Big East champion, Boise State, or TCU.  If Cincinnati beats Pittsburgh, we don’t see the Bearcats being chosen even though they would be 12-0.  Cincinnati played in Miami last year.  It would come down to TCU and Boise State.  Believe it or not, Boise’s fans travel better, so we will go with Boise State here.

If Pittsburgh beats Cincinnati, the Panthers will probably wind up here, and Boise State would head to the Fiesta Bowl.

Fiesta Bowl: Assuming Texas wins, the Fiesta Bowl will get the second and fourth picks in the at-large draft.  The SEC loser will be off the table, and we believe the best choice for this bowl will be Iowa.  After the Orange Bowl picks Boise State, TCU becomes the logical choice.  If Pittsburgh beats Cincinnati, then Boise State would land here.

Sugar Bowl: Without a doubt, the loser of the SEC Championship will play here if both SEC teams don’t play again in Pasadena.  The Sugar Bowl gets the first pick to replace the number one team being lost to the National Championship Game.  The Sugar Bowl also gets the last pick in the at-large draft.  Since this cannot be a Hobson’s Choice, Cincinnati would land here as the only option if the Bearcats beat Pittsburgh.  If Pittsburgh wins this week, then TCU would land here.

Rose Bowl: Ohio State is already assured of playing here.  The winner of Thursday night’s Oregon-Oregon State game will be the opponent.  There can be no other options this year.

The Top-Tier Non-BCS Bowls

 

Capital One Bowl: LSU seems to be a shoo-in for this bowl after Ole Miss fell to Mississippi State.  Penn State will land here if Iowa is chosen over the Lions for a BCS Bowl.  We see no reason for Penn State fans to believe they can beat out Iowa, especially if the bowl in question is the Fiesta Bowl.

Outback Bowl: The top remaining SEC East team is supposed to play here, while the top remaining SEC West team is supposed to play in the Cotton Bowl. Ole Miss played in Dallas last year, and there was talk that there could be a trade-off with Ole Miss heading to Tampa.  However, late news seems to support the Rebels playing in the Cotton Bowl again, so Tennessee looks like the choice here.  The Big Ten representative will be Wisconsin unless the Badgers lose in Hawaii this weekend.  If that happens, it changes a lot of other bowls. 

Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma State should receive this invitation, since the Cowboys have the second best record, but Nebraska or over Oklahoma could leapfrog them.  For now, we will stick with the most politically correct pick and go with Oklahoma State.  According to late-breaking news, the SEC representative will be Ole Miss. 

Gator Bowl: Notre Dame’s fold means the Big East gets this spot.  The loser of the Pittsburgh-Cincinnati game will end up in Jacksonville.  We believe Georgia Tech will lose to Clemson this week, so the Yellow Jackets will play here.  Our pick then is Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh.  If the Yellow Jackets win the ACC, then it appears that Miami would be the ACC representative.

Holiday Bowl: Southern Cal will get this bid if Oregon beats Oregon State.  If the Beavers beat the Ducks, then Oregon will drop to this bowl.  Nebraska is the logical Big 12 choice for this game.

Chick-fil-A Bowl: Georgia’s win over Georgia Tech will put the Bulldogs at the top of the list for this game, but a second year in a row of fewer hotel rooms needing to be booked (Georgia Tech played here last year) probably sends the Bulldogs somewhere else.  The likely ACC opponent will be Virginia Tech, and the SEC will try to find the best opponent.  Auburn would be the best choice, providing a match-up of offense against defense, but most of their fans can drive to this game.  We’re going with Auburn because officials from this bowl repeatedly attended their games.  Where there’s smoke, there’s fire.

The Mid-Level Bowls

 

Las Vegas Bowl: Even though they have been to this bowl four years in a row, it looks like Brigham Young is headed here again.  The Mountain West would like Utah to go here, but BYU will sell their allotment for this one, while the Utes will not.

The Pac-10 opponent could be a host of teams, but we think it will be either Stanford or Oregon State.  One of those two will play here, while the other plays in the Emerald Bowl.  We’ll go with Stanford here.  If Oregon State beats Oregon, then Southern Cal or California might fall to this game.

Meineke Car Care Bowl: This bowl will have a choice of Florida State or Boston College.  With Bobby Bowden announcing his retirement tomorrow, the Seminoles will jump over the Eagles.  Rutgers should get the Big East invitation in this game.

Music City Bowl: This could be an interesting rivalry game.  How about North Carolina facing South Carolina?  Since the Gamecocks joined the SEC in 1991, these two teams have played just once.

Liberty Bowl: Arkansas looks like the best option here.  The Razorbacks will fill up the stadium.  The Conference USA champion automatically plays here, so that means either Houston or East Carolina will be the opponent.  Houston and Arkansas would make this a 100-pass, 4-hour game with maybe 100+ points scored.

Sun Bowl: If Oregon wins Thursday, we believe California will be the Pac-10 representative.  Oklahoma looks like the best fit for the Big 12.

Champs Sports Bowl: If Clemson wins over Georgia Tech, Miami should fall to this bowl.  If Georgia Tech wins over Clemson, then Miami moves up to the Gator and Clemson falls here.  Northwestern should be the Big 10 opponent, but if Wisconsin loses to Hawaii, NU could move up and the Badgers could fall here.

Alamo Bowl: Texas Tech should receive this bid, and their opponent should be Michigan State.  It could take 40 points to win this game.

The Bottom Tier

 

St. Petersburg Bowl: This second year bowl has a chance to make a big splash by bringing together two in-state teams that played each other the last four years but not this year.  Central Florida and South Florida could sell this game out.  We think it is a strong possibility, but the chances for this dream game have dropped some the last few days.

New Mexico Bowl: Unless some back room deals are made, the Mountain West opponent will be Wyoming.  There could be some wheeling and dealing to bring an at-large team here and ship Wyoming to the Humanitarian Bowl, but for now, we’ll keep the Cowboys here.  The WAC opponent will be either Nevada or Fresno State.  If Hawaii upsets Wisconsin, then there will be one extra WAC team available.  For now, we’ll stick with Nevada.

New Orleans Bowl: Troy won the Sunbelt Conference Championship and earns the automatic bid here.  There is a rule where the SBC champion could move to a higher-paying bowl, but for that to happen, the SBC must supply two additional seven-win teams.  There are only two of these teams, so Troy will play here barring some “exception.”   The C-USA opponent should be Southern Mississippi.

Poinsettia Bowl: All signs point to BYU playing here, but we just don’t see the Las Vegas bowl passing over the Cougars for Utah.  So, we’re going against the grain and picking Utah to end up in San Diego.  Arizona looks like the Pac-10 opponent.  If the Wildcats upset USC, then there is a small chance they could move up.

Hawaii Bowl:  Here’s where a giant monkey wrench could be thrown into the bowl games.  Hawaii will get this bid with a win over Wisconsin.  We might be biased, but we think the Badgers can pull this one out.  So, in that case, Fresno State should be the WAC representative.  The hot CUSA choice is SMU, which would bring June Jones back to the island.  Since this bowl desperately wants a Hawaii-SMU game, look for this week’s Hawaii-Wisconsin game to be one of the most partially-biased officiated games.

Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl: This bowl could be in for a mess.  Central Michigan played here last year, so it looks like the Chippewas are headed to Mobile, Alabama.  A bigger problem is that there will not be a Big 10 team available for this game.  Because the at-large pool must take all the seven-win teams before any 6-6 team can be selected, this bowl might have to invite two MAC teams, neither of which are the conference champion.

Ohio U should be the official MAC selection.  This bowl would love to bring Notre Dame here, but even if one 6-6 team can be chosen, it looks like the Irish will vote not to play in any bowls.  Middle Tennessee, at 9-3, would be the best at-large option, but we believe the Blue Raiders will be invited somewhere else first.  So, this bowl will have to look for two MAC teams that have not played.  That leaves Northern Illinois against Bowling Green.

Emerald Bowl: Boston College will be the last available ACC team, and they will fortunate to sell half of their ticket allotment.  Oregon State or Stanford will be the opponent here, and since we pegged Stanford for the Las Vegas Bowl, we’ll put the Beavers here.

Independence Bowl: This bowl is tired of having teams that don’t want to be here, but it will be the case once again with the SEC.  Georgia could very well end up here if the Chick-fil-A looks elsewhere.  The Big 12 representative will come down to either Texas A&M or Iowa State.  If Georgia is chosen to play in Atlanta, then this bowl will jump at the chance to pit Auburn with Iowa State for obvious reasons (Auburn coach Gene Chizik was at Iowa State and Iowa State coach Paul Rhoads was at Auburn).  Under the assumption that Auburn will play in the Chick-fil-A Bowl, we’ll slate Georgia here against Texas A&M.

Eagle Bank Bowl: This second year bowl faces the possibility that neither of its two tie-ins will be able to supply a team.  Army has to beat Navy to earn their bid.  We believe that will happen, and the Cadets will make life easier for this bowl.  The ACC will definitely not have an available team for this bowl, so an at-large team will be selected.  Temple will be making its first bowl trip in almost two decades, so the Owls will be a good choice.  If Army loses to Navy, then a 6-6 team will end up here.  Since Notre Dame will not be available if they vote not to go to a bowl, Marshall may get this bid, even though Coach Mark Snyder just resigned.

Humanitarian Bowl: With Boise State almost assured of making it to a BCS Bowl if Texas beats Nebraska, this bowl will look to Idaho to replace the Broncos.  With TCU earning a BCS bowl, the MWC will not have an available team for this game.  With all the seven-win teams coming from over 1,500 miles away from Boise, it looks like UCLA could become the one 6-6 bowl team and play here.

Armed Forces Bowl:  The MWC team should be Air Force, as it is a no-brainer to have a service academy playing here.  The C-USA opponent should be the loser of the ECU-Houston game this week.  Houston would be a great counterpart.

Texas Bowl: Navy has already secured one of these spots.  Iowa State or Texas A&M will be the opponent depending on which way the Independence bowl goes.

Insight.com Bowl: Minnesota will be the last Big Ten team in the bowl pecking order, so the Gophers will get this bid.  Missouri is the likely Big 12 opponent.

International Bowl:  Connecticut is the logical choice as the Big East representative.  Ohio U may be shipped here, as they cannot play in the Pizza Bowl against either Bowling Green or Northern Illinois (they beat both).

PapaJohns.com Bowl: Kentucky should be the last available SEC team, and the Wildcats will travel well to Birmingham.  West Virginia would be an excellent opponent here.

NCAA Top 25 For November 30, 2009
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Texas	134.2	12	0
2	Florida	133.2	12	0
3	Alabama	128.0	12	0
4	T C U	125.4	12	0
5	Oklahoma	124.0	7	5
6	Boise State	120.9	12	0
7	Virginia Tech	120.5	9	3
8	Oregon	119.7	9	2
9	Georgia Tech	119.3	10	2
10	Texas Tech	117.9	8	4
11	Penn State	117.7	10	2
12	Southern Cal	117.7	8	3
13	Ohio State	117.6	10	2
14	Miami (Fla)	117.4	9	3
15	Stanford	116.9	8	4
16	Nebraska	116.1	9	3
17	Arkansas	115.5	7	5
18	Iowa	114.8	10	2
19	California	114.6	8	3
20	Cincinnati	114.4	11	0
21	Pittsburgh	114.2	9	2
22	Oklahoma State	113.9	9	3
23	Ole Miss	113.2	8	4
24	L  S  U	112.5	9	3
25	Oregon State	112.1	8	3
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Clemson	6-2	8-4	111.8
Florida State	4-4	6-6	107.6
Boston College	5-3	8-4	107.1
Wake Forest	3-5	5-7	104.8
North Carolina State	2-6	5-7	102.7
Maryland	1-7	2-10	93.0
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Virginia Tech	6-2	9-3	120.5
Georgia Tech	7-1	10-2	119.3
Miami-FL	5-3	9-3	117.4
North Carolina	4-4	8-4	110.9
Duke	3-5	5-7	98.4
Virginia	2-6	3-9	94.8

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Cincinnati	7-0	11-0	114.4
Pittsburgh	5-1	9-2	114.2
West Virginia	4-2	8-3	105.9
Connecticut	2-4	6-5	105.8
Rutgers	3-3	8-3	102.2
South Florida	3-3	7-4	101.8
Syracuse	1-6	4-8	93.9
Louisville	1-6	4-8	90.5

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Penn State	6-2	10-2	117.7
Ohio State	7-1	10-2	117.6
Iowa	6-2	10-2	114.8
Wisconsin	5-3	8-3	105.3
Michigan State	4-4	6-6	101.5
Northwestern	5-3	8-4	99.3
Purdue	4-4	5-7	99.0
Minnesota	3-5	6-6	97.9
Michigan	1-7	5-7	96.6
Illinois	2-6	3-8	96.2
Indiana	1-7	4-8	90.9

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	6-2	9-3	116.1
Missouri	4-4	8-4	104.8
Kansas	1-7	5-7	103.9
Kansas State	4-4	6-6	99.4
Colorado	2-6	3-9	97.4
Iowa State	3-5	6-6	94.9
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Texas	8-0	12-0	134.2
Oklahoma	5-3	7-5	124.0
Texas Tech	5-3	8-4	117.9
Oklahoma State	6-2	9-3	113.9
Texas A&M	3-5	6-6	103.4
Baylor	1-7	4-8	96.6

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Florida	6-2	8-4	104.1
East Carolina	7-1	8-4	103.9
Southern Mississippi	5-3	7-5	100.9
Marshall	4-4	6-6	92.4
U A B	4-4	5-7	91.0
Memphis	1-7	2-10	83.4
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Houston	6-2	10-2	108.7
Tulsa	3-5	5-7	91.6
U T E P	3-5	4-8	90.8
S M U	6-2	7-5	88.4
Rice	2-6	2-10	76.4
Tulane	1-7	3-9	71.1

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		6-6	105.9
Navy		8-4	100.6
Army		5-6	82.0

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	7-1	9-3	100.7
Ohio U	7-1	9-3	95.0
Buffalo	3-5	5-7	92.4
Bowling Green	6-2	7-5	91.4
Kent St.	4-4	6-6	84.7
Akron	2-6	3-9	81.5
Miami (O)	1-7	1-11	76.3
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Michigan	8-0	10-2	108.9
Northern Illinois	5-3	7-5	95.1
Toledo	3-5	5-7	87.1
Western Michigan	4-4	5-7	86.2
Ball State	2-6	2-10	83.0
Eastern Michigan	0-8	0-12	74.2

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	8-0	12-0	125.4
B Y U	7-1	10-2	111.1
Utah	6-2	9-3	107.7
Air Force	5-3	7-5	100.7
Wyoming	4-4	6-6	87.9
UNLV	3-5	5-7	86.8
Colo. State	0-8	3-9	86.1
S. D. State	3-5	5-7	85.2
New Mexico	1-7	1-11	77.8

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oregon	7-1	9-2	119.7
Southern Cal	5-3	8-3	117.7
Stanford	6-3	8-4	116.9
California	5-3	8-3	114.6
Oregon St.	6-2	8-3	112.1
Arizona	5-3	7-4	111.4
U C L A	3-6	6-6	105.3
Arizona St.	2-7	4-8	102.1
Washington	3-5	4-7	97.6
Wash. St.	0-9	1-11	70.8

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida	8-0	12-0	133.2
Tennessee	4-4	7-5	110.9
South Carolina	3-5	7-5	110.9
Georgia	4-4	7-5	110.4
Kentucky	3-5	7-5	104.4
Vanderbilt	0-8	2-10	93.1
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Alabama	8-0	12-0	128.0
Arkansas	3-5	7-5	115.5
Ole Miss	4-4	8-4	113.2
L S U	5-3	9-3	112.5
Auburn	3-5	7-5	107.7
Mississippi State	3-5	5-7	104.2

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Troy	8-0	9-3	99.0
Middle Tennessee	7-1	9-3	96.2
Louisiana-Monroe	5-3	6-6	86.8
Arkansas State	2-5	3-8	86.2
U. of Louisiana	4-4	6-6	83.7
Florida Atlantic	4-3	4-7	83.2
Florida International	3-4	3-8	81.7
North Texas	1-7	2-10	76.4
Western Kentucky	0-7	0-11	73.3

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	7-0	12-0	120.9
Nevada	7-1	8-4	108.6
Fresno State	6-2	7-4	99.0
Louisiana Tech	2-5	3-8	97.2
Utah State	3-5	4-8	91.9
Idaho	4-4	7-5	89.6
Hawaii	3-5	6-6	87.7
San Jose State	1-6	2-9	81.1
New Mexico State	1-6	3-9	71.0

This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Thursday, December 3		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Arkansas State	WESTERN KY.	10.2	34-24	9
OREGON	Oregon State	10.3	38-28	9
Friday, December 4		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Central Michigan  (Det.)	Ohio U	14.9	35-20	7
Saturday, December 5		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
CONNECTICUT	South Florida	7.3	27-20	7
PITTSBURGH	Cincinnati	2.8	24-21	0
West Virginia	RUTGERS	0.7	28-27	0
Houston	EAST CAROLINA	1.8	37-35	5
ILLINOIS	Fresno State	0.7	31-30	-3
LOUISIANA TECH	San Jose St.	19.1	40-21	16
BOISE STATE	New Mexico St.	53.4	63-10	44
SOUTHERN CAL	Arizona	10.6	24-13	6
Florida (Atlanta)	Alabama	5.2	21-16	2
California	WASHINGTON	14.0	35-21	8
FLORIDA INT’L	Florida Atlantic	0.5	27-26	1
Texas (Dallas)	Nebraska	19.6	27-7	14
Wisconsin	HAWAII	13.6	38-24	11
Saturday, December 12		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Navy  (N-Philadelphia)	Army	18.6	35-16	8

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For College Football–November 23-28, 2009

Rivalry Week

Throw The Stats Out The Window

 

This is the college football week where more money is lost by those who don’t know what they are doing and more money is made by those who do know.  Certain rivalry games are just that—real rivalries.  Others are nothing but an annual beating on a little sister.

 

There is another bigger factor to this week’s games.  It’s the bowl factor.  Several teams are still looking for one final win to become bowl eligible.  A 5-6 team hosting an 8-3 team must be looked at quite differently than a 2-9 team hosting a 4-7 team.  The desire to get to 6-6 far outweighs the desire to avoid a 10-loss season.

 

NCAA Top 25 For November 23, 2009
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Texas	137.0	11	0
2	Florida	133.1	11	0
3	Alabama	130.4	11	0
4	T C U	125.3	11	0
5	Oklahoma	122.5	6	5
6	Georgia Tech	121.5	10	1
7	Boise St.	120.8	11	0
8	Oregon	119.7	9	2
9	Va. Tech	119.5	8	3
10	Texas Tech	118.8	7	4
11	Penn St.	117.7	10	2
12	Ohio St.	117.6	10	2
13	Southern Cal	116.9	7	3
14	Nebraska	116.7	8	3
15	Stanford	116.7	7	4
16	Ole Miss	116.5	8	3
17	Miami (Fla.)	116.1	8	3
18	Pittsburgh	115.6	9	1
19	Arkansas	115.5	7	4
20	Okla. St.	115.4	9	2
21	Cincinnati	115.2	10	0
22	Iowa	114.8	10	2
23	California	114.6	8	3
24	Clemson	114.5	8	3
25	L  S  U	112.5	8	3
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

 

Let’s look at the bowl eligible teams by conference as well as the teams needing to win this week to gain bowl eligibility.

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Clemson	6-2	8-3	114.5
Boston College	4-3	7-4	107.8
Florida State	4-4	6-5	107.7
Wake Forest	2-5	4-7	104.0
North Carolina State	1-6	4-7	101.2
Maryland	1-6	2-9	92.3
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Georgia Tech	7-1	10-1	121.5
Virginia Tech	5-2	8-3	119.5
Miami-FL	5-3	8-3	116.1
North Carolina	4-3	8-3	112.4
Duke	3-4	5-6	99.2
Virginia	2-6	3-8	95.8

 

Clemson and Georgia Tech have already clinched their divisions and will meet for the ACC Championship.  Tech edges the Tigers in Atlanta in September, but Clemson gave the game away.

 

Duke needs to beat Wake Forest this week to earn their first bowl in 15 years.  David Cutcliffe is one of the most underrated coaches in the country, and he should receive some national recognition in the Coach of the Year balloting.

 

The ACC has nine automatic bowl bids, and only seven bowl eligible teams as of now.  The GMAC Bowl will need to find an at-large team to fill the vacant position, and if Duke loses this week, the Eagle Bank Bowl will look to the MAC to fill that vacant slot.

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Pittsburgh	5-0	9-1	115.6
Cincinnati	6-0	10-0	115.2
West Virginia	3-2	7-3	104.5
Connecticut	1-4	5-5	104.1
Rutgers	2-3	7-3	101.1
South Florida	3-3	7-3	103.1
Syracuse	1-5	4-7	95.6
Louisville	1-5	4-7	91.6

 

Regardless of what happens in the Backyard Brawl in Morgantown this weekend, the winner of next week’s Cincinnati-Pittsburgh game will be Big East Champions and automatic BCS Bowl representative.  Cincinnati could still conceivably earn an at-large BCS Bowl bid at 11-1, but that chance is slimmer than slim.

 

Connecticut can gain bowl eligibility with a win at home against Syracuse this weekend, and they would get another chance next week against South Florida if they faltered against the Orangemen.  If the Huskies get that win, then the Big East will have six bowl eligible teams for six guaranteed spots.  Notre Dame could still possibly steal the Sun Bowl/Gator Bowl spot that goes to a Big East team if the Irish beat Stanford, but it would be a disgrace for them to steal a post at 7-5.  We believe Stanford will take care of business and keep Notre Dame out of the bowl picture altogether this year.

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Penn State	6-2	10-2	117.7
Ohio State	7-1	10-2	117.6
Iowa	6-2	10-2	114.8
Wisconsin	5-3	8-3	105.3
Michigan State	4-4	6-6	101.5
Northwestern	5-3	8-4	99.3
Purdue	4-4	5-7	99.0
Minnesota	3-5	6-6	97.9
Michigan	1-7	5-7	96.6
Illinois	2-6	3-7	95.4
Indiana	1-7	4-8	90.9

 

The Big 10 season is basically over.  Illinois has a couple of non-conference games remaining, and the only important factor in that is they play Cincinnati this weekend.  Wisconsin goes to Hawaii in two weeks, and the Outback Bowl bid could be riding on them winning the game.

 

It is almost a foregone conclusion that a second Big 10 team, either Iowa or Penn State, will receive an at-large BCS Bowl bid.  So, there will be seven teams available for eight bowls.  The Pizza Bowl (formerly Motor City Bowl) will have to look elsewhere and may be forced to invite two MAC teams.

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	5-2	8-3	116.7
Missouri	3-4	7-4	104.7
Kansas	1-6	5-6	104.0
Kansas State	4-4	6-6	99.4
Colorado	2-5	3-8	96.8
Iowa State	3-5	6-6	94.9
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Texas	7-0	11-0	137.0
Oklahoma	4-3	6-5	122.5
Texas Tech	4-3	7-4	118.8
Oklahoma State	6-1	9-2	115.4
Texas A&M	3-4	6-5	100.6
Baylor	1-6	4-7	95.7

 

Nebraska and Texas will face off in the Big 12 Championship Game, and the Cornhuskers may have a shot at pulling off a huge upset.  We give the ‘Huskers about a 15% chance of frustrating the Longhorn offense and win ugly.  If so, then another team from the Lone Star State will benefit.

 

After beginning the season at 5-0, Kansas finds itself in a must-win situation against Missouri at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City.  They must earn The Brass Drum to earn a bowl bid.

 

The most important game though will be the Oklahoma and Oklahoma State game in Norman.  If the Cowboys beat the Sooners, they will more than likely earn an at-large BCS Bowl Bid at the expense of Boise State.  The Sooners must win to guarantee themselves a winning season.  The PiRate Ratings have had a devil of a time with OU this year.  Even at 6-5, their power rating keeps them in the top 10.  It’s hit or miss with them, as they showed how strong they are when they took Texas to the final gun.

 

If Kansas wins over Missouri, there will be 10 bowl eligible teams for eight guaranteed bowl spots (nine if Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma).  Look for Iowa State to be the odd team out of the mix.

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Florida	5-2	7-4	104.1
East Carolina	6-1	7-4	103.8
Southern Mississippi	5-2	7-4	101.0
Marshall	4-3	6-5	95.6
U A B	4-3	5-6	91.0
Memphis	1-6	2-9	82.2
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Houston	5-2	9-2	105.2
Tulsa	2-5	4-7	92.8
S M U	5-2	6-5	90.1
U T E P	2-5	3-8	87.6
Rice	2-5	2-9	79.9
Tulane	1-6	3-8	69.4

 

Welcome to the conference where everything changes weekly.  With SMU losing to Marshall, the door opened once again for Houston to ascend to the CUSA Championship Game.  A win over Rice is all that’s needed, but all of a sudden the Owls have found their way.  It could be an interesting game—at least for a half.

 

The East Division championship will be decided this weekend when Southern Miss visits East Carolina.

 

UAB can gain bowl eligibility with a win over  Central Florida, but it may be a moot point.  There are only five guaranteed bowl spots with a sixth if Army fails to earn the Eagle Bank Bowl bid.  Six CUSA teams are already bowl eligible, and the Blazers cannot compete with Marshall or SMU in fanbase.

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		6-5	106.1
Navy		8-3	103.2
Army		5-6	82.0

 

All three independents are still in the bowl mix, but as of now, only Navy is guaranteed a spot.  Notre Dame must beat Stanford to get to 7-5 and earn priority over every other possible at-large team.  At 6-6, they more than likely will find themselves out of the picture as there will be enough seven-win teams to fill the at-large spots.

 

Army must beat Navy to earn the Eagle Bank Bowl bid.  Navy has won seven in a row in this series, so it should be one of the best in this series in many years.

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	7-0	9-2	103.8
Buffalo	2-5	4-7	92.1
Ohio U	6-1	8-3	91.9
Bowling Green	5-2	6-5	91.0
Kent St.	4-3	6-5	85.0
Akron	1-6	2-9	81.4
Miami (O)	1-7	1-11	76.3
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Michigan	7-0	9-2	108.5
Northern Illinois	5-2	7-4	95.2
Western Michigan	4-3	5-6	88.2
Toledo	3-4	5-6	87.5
Ball State	1-6	1-10	81.0
Eastern Michigan	0-7	0-11	74.3

 

Central Michigan has already clinched the West Division, and the Chippewas will play the winner of this week’s Ohio U-Temple game in the MAC Championship Game. 

 

Two teams will be playing for that important seventh win this week.  Bowling Green hosts Toledo, and Kent State hosts Buffalo.

 

The MAC gets three guaranteed bowl bids and will get a fourth if Duke fails to beat Wake Forest and earn an Eagle Bank Bowl bid.   That’s where the Bowling Green and Kent State games come into play.  Both could earn bowl bids with wins, and one could even play in the Pizza Bowl against another MAC team.

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	7-0	11-0	125.3
B Y U	6-1	9-2	111.6
Utah	6-1	9-2	107.2
Air Force	5-3	7-5	100.7
Wyoming	3-4	5-6	87.6
UNLV	2-5	4-7	86.8
Colo. State	0-7	3-8	86.4
S. D. State	2-5	4-7	85.2
New Mexico	1-6	1-10	77.9

 

TCU will manhandle New Mexico this week and then hope that either Texas A&M or Nebraska can upset Texas, Florida State can upset Florida, or Auburn can upset Alabama.  The Horned Frogs need two of the big three teams ahead of them to lose.  The loser of the SEC Championship Game means that either Texas must lose this week or next or the winner of the SEC Championship Game must lose this week.  If one of these events happen, then TCU will be playing for the national championship in January.  It’s hard to believe that this program was once as weak as Syracuse, Vanderbilt, and Washington State are today.

 

The one team still trying to gain bowl eligibility is Wyoming.  The Cowboys must beat Colorado State in Ft. Collins this week, and these two teams truly put the “war” in “Border War.”  It’s not a given that Wyoming can top the 3-8 Rams.

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oregon	7-1	9-2	119.7
Southern Cal	4-3	7-3	116.9
Stanford	6-3	7-4	116.7
California	5-3	8-3	114.6
Oregon St.	6-2	8-3	112.1
Arizona	4-3	6-4	111.4
U C L A	3-5	6-5	106.1
Arizona St.	2-6	4-7	102.1
Washington	2-5	3-7	97.3
Wash. St.	0-8	1-10	71.1

 

For the first time ever, the winner of the “Civil War” game between Oregon and Oregon State will earn the Rose Bowl bid.  The Ducks and Beavers are one of the best rivalry games in college football, and I’d love to have a 50-yard line seat next week in Eugene.

 

The Pac-10 receives six automatic bowl bids, but there are seven bowl eligible teams.  It looks like UCLA will miss out this year unless they can upset USC.  Arizona must beat either Arizona State or USC to get to seven wins.  If both the Bruins and Wildcats win seven games, then expect to see the Pac-10 receiving an extra bid to a western bowl.

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida	8-0	11-0	133.1
Tennessee	3-4	6-5	110.7
Georgia	4-4	6-5	108.2
South Carolina	3-5	6-5	108.2
Kentucky	3-4	7-4	104.6
Vanderbilt	0-8	2-10	93.1
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Alabama	7-0	11-0	130.4
Ole Miss	4-3	8-3	116.5
Arkansas	3-4	7-4	115.5
L S U	4-3	8-3	112.5
Auburn	3-4	7-4	105.3
Mississippi State	2-5	4-7	100.9

 

This is a monster conference!  With Alabama and Florida headed to Atlanta to play what will be the “Game Of The Decade” (assuming both win this week), it is a given that the loser will still play in a BCS Bowl.  It isn’t completely out of the realm that if the SEC Championship game goes to overtime or is decided in regulation by a point, and if Texas loses to either Texas A&M or Nebraska, that Alabama and Florida could meet in a rematch for all the marbles.

 

With 10 bowl eligible teams, the SEC will place all 10 in bowls.  There will be a lot of last minute shuffling because there isn’t much difference between team number three and team number 10.

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Troy	7-0	8-3	98.4
Middle Tennessee	6-1	8-3	94.8
Louisiana-Monroe	5-2	6-5	88.2
Arkansas State	1-5	2-8	86.6
U. of Louisiana	4-3	6-5	84.3
Florida Atlantic	3-3	3-7	83.2
Florida International	3-4	3-8	81.7
North Texas	1-6	2-9	76.0
Western Kentucky	0-6	0-10	73.3

 

This league is almost assured of earning a second bowl bid this year.  Troy will play in the New Orleans Bowl, but Middle Tennessee will get an at-large bid somewhere.  Both Louisiana-Lafayette and Louisiana-Monroe can get to seven wins, but it will take big upsets for both to do so.  ULL plays Troy, while ULM plays MTSU.

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	6-0	11-0	120.8
Nevada	7-0	8-3	108.7
Fresno State	6-2	7-4	99.0
Louisiana Tech	2-5	3-8	97.2
Utah State	2-5	3-8	91.2
Idaho	4-3	7-4	90.3
Hawaii	3-5	5-6	85.1
San Jose State	0-6	1-9	82.1
New Mexico State	1-5	3-8	70.0

 

Here’s where things should get interesting.  Boise State is a win over Nevada away from being 12-0 and the proverbial odd team out.  If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, the Cowboys will steal the last BCS Bowl bid at the Broncos’ expense.  Then, watch for the United States Government to put their messy fingers into the college football pigpen. 

 

Before we get into this mess, Boise State has to beat Nevada.  The Wolf Pack is not a pushover, and it could easily take 50 or more points to win this game.

 

Of course, if the Sooners win over OSU, then it looks favorable for BSU getting into the field.  Then, they would be competing against a one or two-loss Big East team and maybe a two-loss Georgia Tech team.

 

If Boise State moves up, then the WAC is safe with four bowls for four bowl eligible teams.

 

Hawaii could still sneak into the mix, but they would have to beat Navy and Wisconsin.  We don’t see that happening.

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Tuesday, November 24		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
WESTERN MICHIGAN	Ball State	10.2	31-21	10
Thursday, November 26		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Texas	TEXAS A&M	32.9	54-21	21
Friday, November 27		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Rutgers	LOUISVILLE	6.5	28-21	5
CINCINNATI	Illinois	22.5	37-14	25
CENTRAL MICHIGAN	Northern Illinois	16.3	28-12	12
AKRON	Eastern Michigan	9.8	34-24	13
BOWLING GREEN	Toledo	6	40-34	11
COLORADO STATE	Wyoming	1.8	23-21	0
Buffalo	KENT STATE	3.9	28-24	-1
Temple	OHIO U	8.9	30-21	3
Alabama	AUBURN	22.6	33-10	12
Nebraska	COLORADO	16.9	24-7	12
TULSA	Memphis	13.6	38-24	12
Pittsburgh	WEST VIRGINIA	8.6	28-19	3
BOISE STATE	Nevada	15.4	45-30	16
Saturday, November 28		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
CONNECTICUT	Syracuse	11.5	28-16	12
Wake Forest	DUKE	2.1	24-22	-1
North Carolina	N. C. STATE	8.5	26-17	12
Clemson	SOUTH CAROLINA	3.8	31-27	6
Ole Miss	MISSISSIPPI STATE	13.1	34-20	6
OKLAHOMA	Oklahoma State	9.6	38-28	5
T C U	New Mexico	50.9	51-0	43
EAST CAROLINA	Southern Miss	5.8	34-28	6
Central Florida	ALABAMA-BIRMINGHAM	10.4	38-28	5
ARKANSAS STATE	North Texas	13.3	34-21	8
S M U	Tulane	23.7	41-17	18
Marshall	U T E P	5.0	35-30	7
Arizona	ARIZONA STATE	6.8	27-20	6
FLORIDA	Florida State	27.9	38-10	21
Missouri  (n)	Kansas	0.7	31-30	3
Boston College	MARYLAND	12.5	34-21	10
Miami-Fl	SOUTH FLORIDA	10.6	28-17	4
Virginia Tech	VIRGINIA	21.2	38-17	15
FLORIDA ATLANTIC	Western Kentucky	12.9	27-14	16
Middle Tennessee	UL-MONROE	3.6	31-27	4
B  Y  U	Utah	7.1	34-27	4
IDAHO	Utah State	2.1	34-32	6
Texas Tech (n)	Baylor	23.1	42-19	18
WASHINGTON	Washington State	28.9	42-13	19
Tennessee	KENTUCKY	3.1	27-24	-1
L  S  U	Arkansas	0.0	27-27 ot	3
Troy	UL-LAFAYETTE	11.1	35-24	9
GEORGIA TECH	Georgia	15.6	44-28	16
HOUSTON	Rice	27.8	49-21	29
SAN JOSE STATE	New Mexico St.	15.1	35-20	7
STANFORD	Notre Dame	13.6	42-28	9
U  N  L  V	San Diego State	4.6	28-23	5
SOUTHERN CAL	U  c  l  a	13.5	28-14	10
Navy	HAWAII	14.1	45-31	12

 

 

Bowl Speculations

Bowl	Conference	Team	Conference	Team
New Mexico	MWC #4	Wyoming	WAC #3	Nevada
St. Petersburg	Big East #6	Connecticut	C-USA #5	Central Fla
New Orleans	Sunbelt #1	Troy	C-USA #4	Southern Miss
Las Vegas	MWC #1	B Y U	Pac 10 #4 or 5	Stanford
Poinsettia	MWC #2	Utah	Pac 10 #6	Arizona
Hawaii	WAC	Fresno St.	C-USA	Houston
Little Caesar’s Pizza	Big 10 #7	(Bowling Green)	MAC #1 or 2	Temple
Meineke Car Care	ACC #5-6-7	Boston College	Big East #3	West Virginia
Emerald	Pac 10 #4 or 5	Oregon State	ACC #5-6-7	Florida State
Music City	SEC #6 or 7	Kentucky	ACC #5-6-7	North Carolina
Independence	SEC #8	Georgia	Big 12 #7	Kansas State
Eagle Bank	ACC #8	Duke	Army/C-USA	(Marshall)
Champs Sports	ACC #4	Miami-Fl	Big 10 #5	Northwestern
Humanitarian	WAC #1	Idaho	MWC	(Kent State)
Holiday	Big 12 #3	Nebraska	Pac 10 #2	Southern Cal
Armed Forces	C-USA #3	S M U	MWC #3	Air Force
Sun	Pac 10 #3	California	Big 12 #5 or Big East #2	Oklahoma
Texas	Big 12 #8	Texas A&M	Navy or C-USA	NAVY
Insight.com	Big 12 #6	Missouri	Big 10 #6	Minnesota
Chick-fil-A	SEC #5	Auburn	ACC #2	Va. Tech
Outback	SEC #3 or 4	Tennessee	Big 10 #3	Wisconsin
Capital One	Big 10 #2	Iowa	SEC #2	Ole Miss
Gator	Big East #2 or Big 12 #5	Cincinnati	ACC #3	Ga. Tech
Rose	BCS Pac10	Stanford	BCS Big 10	OHIO STATE
Sugar	BCS SEC	(Florida)	BCS At-Large	Boise State
International	Big East #5	Rutgers	MAC #3	Ohio U
Cotton	Big 12 #2	Nebraska	SEC #3 or 4	L S U
Papajohns.com	Big East #4	South Florida	SEC #9	South Carolina
Liberty	SEC #6 or 7	Arkansas	C-USA #1	East Carolina
Alamo	Big 10 #4	Texas Tech	Big 12 #4	Michigan St.
Fiesta	BCS Big 12	(Penn State)	BCS At-Large	T C U
Orange	BCS ACC	Clemson	BCS At-Large	Pittsburgh
G M A C	ACC #9	(Middle Tenn)	MAC	Central Mich.
National Championship	*** BCS #1 ***	Alabama	*** BCS #2 ***	Texas

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For College Football–November 17-21, 2009

Down The Stretch They Come

 

November has certainly already seen a host of upsets in the college football world, and we here at the PiRate Ratings believe big surprises are still to come.  With six undefeated teams (Florida, Alabama, Texas, TCU, Cincinnati, and Boise State), we see at least two falling before the bowl season.  Obviously, either Alabama or Florida must lose. The last time five teams finished the regular season winning every game was 1951, when Maryland, Tennessee, Michigan State, San Francisco, and Princeton did the trick.

 

The first wave of rivalry games begin this week, topped off by “The Big Game” in Palo Alto between Stanford and Cal.  The Cardinal now have a shot at winning the Pac-10 and earning a trip to Pasadena to face Ohio State.

 

Speaking of the Buckeyes, Ohio State ventures to the Big House to take on Michigan.  The Wolverines must win to gain bowl eligibility, and a loss will send several dozen more Maize & Blue fans to www.firerrod.com.

 

NCAA Top 25 For November 16, 2009
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Texas	136.9	10	0
2	Florida	131.9	10	0
3	Alabama	129.9	9	0
4	Oklahoma	129.5	6	4
5	T C U	125.0	10	0
6	Georgia Tech	121.5	10	1
7	Boise St.	120.2	10	0
8	Oregon	119.9	8	2
9	Va. Tech	118.6	7	3
10	Stanford	118.0	7	3
11	Ohio St.	117.9	9	2
12	Nebraska	117.5	7	3
13	Okla. St.	117.0	8	2
14	Southern Cal	116.9	7	3
15	Ole Miss	116.7	7	3
16	Miami (Fla.)	116.1	7	3
17	Pittsburgh	115.6	9	1
18	Clemson	115.4	7	3
19	Cincinnati	115.2	10	0
20	Penn St.	115.1	9	2
21	Iowa	115.1	9	2
22	Arkansas	115.0	6	4
23	California	113.3	7	3
24	L  S  U	112.3	8	2
25	Texas Tech	112.3	6	4
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Clemson	5-2	7-3	115.4
Boston College	4-2	7-3	110.6
Florida State	3-4	5-5	109.3
Wake Forest	2-5	4-7	104.0
North Carolina State	1-5	4-6	102.1
Maryland	1-5	2-8	90.7
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Georgia Tech	7-1	10-1	121.5
Virginia Tech	4-2	7-3	118.6
Miami-FL	4-3	7-3	116.1
North Carolina	3-3	7-3	109.6
Duke	3-3	5-5	99.2
Virginia	2-5	3-7	94.9

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Pittsburgh	5-0	9-1	115.6
Cincinnati	6-0	10-0	115.2
West Virginia	3-2	7-3	104.5
Rutgers	2-2	7-2	104.2
Connecticut	1-4	4-5	103.1
South Florida	2-3	6-3	102.9
Syracuse	0-5	3-7	92.5
Louisville	1-4	4-6	91.8

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Ohio State	6-1	9-2	117.9
Penn State	5-2	9-2	115.1
Iowa	5-2	9-2	115.1
Wisconsin	5-2	8-2	106.1
Michigan State	4-3	6-5	104.1
Northwestern	4-3	7-4	98.5
Minnesota	3-4	6-5	97.6
Purdue	3-4	4-7	96.8
Michigan	1-6	5-6	96.3
Illinois	2-6	3-7	95.4
Indiana	1-6	4-7	93.1

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	4-2	7-3	117.5
Missouri	2-4	6-4	104.6
Kansas	1-5	5-5	104.1
Kansas State	4-3	6-5	98.6
Colorado	2-4	3-7	95.2
Iowa State	3-4	6-5	95.0
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Texas	6-0	10-0	136.9
Oklahoma	4-2	6-4	129.5
Oklahoma State	5-1	8-2	117.0
Texas Tech	3-3	6-4	112.3
Baylor	1-5	4-6	101.2
Texas A&M	2-4	5-5	95.1

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
East Carolina	5-1	6-4	103.8
Southern Mississippi	4-2	6-4	100.9
Central Florida	4-2	6-4	98.1
Marshall	3-3	5-5	95.5
U A B	4-2	5-5	91.0
Memphis	1-5	2-8	83.0
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Houston	4-2	8-2	104.4
Tulsa	2-4	4-6	92.9
S M U	5-1	6-4	90.2
U T E P	2-4	3-7	89.9
Rice	1-5	1-9	77.3
Tulane	1-5	3-7	75.4

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		6-4	107.1
Navy		8-3	103.2
Army		3-7	81.9

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	6-0	8-2	101.4
Ohio U	5-1	7-3	91.3
Bowling Green	4-2	5-5	90.6
Buffalo	1-5	3-7	90.5
Kent St.	4-2	5-5	87.4
Akron	1-5	2-8	81.8
Miami (O)	1-6	1-10	77.9
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Michigan	6-0	8-2	107.1
Northern Illinois	5-1	7-3	95.8
Western Michigan	4-3	5-6	88.2
Toledo	2-4	4-6	86.3
Ball State	1-5	1-9	82.4
Eastern Michigan	0-6	0-10	75.5

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	6-0	10-0	125.0
B Y U	5-1	8-2	110.9
Utah	5-1	8-2	105.8
Air Force	5-2	7-4	101.3
Colo. State	0-6	3-7	88.5
Wyoming	3-3	5-5	87.9
UNLV	2-5	4-7	86.8
S. D. State	2-4	4-6	86.6
New Mexico	0-6	0-10	75.8

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oregon	6-1	8-2	119.9
Stanford	6-2	7-3	118.0
Southern Cal	4-3	7-3	116.9
California	4-3	7-3	113.3
Arizona	4-2	6-3	111.2
Oregon St.	5-2	7-3	109.5
U C L A	2-5	5-5	105.6
Arizona St.	2-5	4-6	102.6
Washington	2-5	3-7	97.3
Wash. St.	0-7	1-9	73.7

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida	8-0	10-0	131.9
Tennessee	2-4	5-5	111.3
Georgia	4-3	6-4	109.2
South Carolina	3-5	6-5	108.2
Kentucky	2-4	6-4	103.6
Vanderbilt	0-7	2-9	92.5
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Alabama	7-0	10-0	129.9
Ole Miss	3-3	7-3	116.7
Arkansas	2-4	6-4	115.0
L S U	4-2	8-2	112.3
Auburn	3-4	7-4	105.3
Mississippi State	2-4	4-6	101.4

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Troy	6-0	7-3	97.6
Middle Tennessee	5-1	7-3	92.4
Louisiana-Monroe	5-1	6-4	89.3
Arkansas State	1-4	2-7	89.0
Florida Atlantic	3-2	3-6	84.0
U. of Louisiana	3-3	5-5	83.2
Florida International	3-4	3-7	82.9
North Texas	1-6	2-8	76.1
Western Kentucky	0-6	0-10	73.3

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	5-0	10-0	120.2
Nevada	6-0	7-3	107.1
Fresno State	5-2	6-4	99.7
Louisiana Tech	2-4	3-7	96.5
Utah State	2-4	3-7	91.8
Idaho	4-3	7-4	90.3
Hawaii	2-5	4-6	85.0
San Jose State	0-5	1-8	82.2
New Mexico State	1-4	3-7	71.6

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Wednesday, November 18		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Central Michigan	BALL STATE	22.2	38-16	20
Buffalo	MIAMI (O)	10.1	27-17	3
Thursday, November 19		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
OKLAHOMA STATE	Colorado	24.8	38-13	21
Friday, November 20		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
BOWLING GREEN	Akron	11.5	35-23	15
TOLEDO	E  M  U	13.8	41-27	15
Boise State	UTAH STATE	25.4	35-10	25
Saturday, November 21		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Ohio State	MICHIGAN	18.1	35-17	16
Northern Illinois	OHIO U	1.5	26-24	-1
CLEMSON	Virginia	23.8	34-10	19
Wisconsin	NORTHWESTERN	4.6	28-23	7
IOWA	Minnesota	20.5	35-14	14
SOUTH FLORIDA	Louisville	14.1	24-10	12
Rutgers	SYRACUSE	8.7	30-21	12
Purdue	INDIANA	1.0	35-34	0
FLORIDA STATE	Maryland	21.6	40-18	18
BOSTON COLLEGE	North Carolina	4.0	21-17	3
VIRGINIA TECH	North Carolina State	19.8	34-14	21
MISSOURI	Iowa State	12.6	34-21	9
TENNESSEE	Vanderbilt	21.8	28-6	19
GEORGIA	Kentucky	8.6	33-24	6
TEMPLE	Kent State	17.0	38-21	13
T  c  u	WYOMING	34.1	44-10	26
ARKANSAS	Mississippi State	16.6	45-28	10
NOTRE DAME	Connecticut	7.0	35-28	6
Oregon State	WASHINGTON STATE	33.1	40-7	25
Penn State	MICHIGAN STATE	8.0	31-23	5
U  C  L  A	Arizona State	6.0	27-21	5
STANFORD	California	7.2	30-23	7
OLE MISS	L  s  u	7.4	31-24	1
B  Y  U	Air Force	12.6	27-14	7
EAST CAROLINA	U  a  b	15.8	37-21	10
NEBRASKA	Kansas State	22.4	31-9	15
Oklahoma	TEXAS TECH	13.2	34-21	2
Baylor	TEXAS A&M	3.1	27-24	-5
U  t  e  p	RICE	10.1	37-27	5
UTAH	San Diego State	22.2	35-13	21
FRESNO STATE	La. Tech	6.5	31-24	11
Colorado State	NEW MEXICO	9.7	24-14	8
Oregon	ARIZONA	5.4	31-26	4
MARSHALL	S  m  u	8.3	31-23	4
SOUTHERN MISS	Tulsa	11.0	31-20	9
TEXAS	Kansas	36.3	50-14	29
MIAMI (FLA)	Duke	19.9	37-17	17
HOUSTON	Memphis	24.4	55-31	23
CENTRAL FLORIDA	Tulane	25.7	40-14	20
Nevada	NEW MEXICO ST.	32.8	50-17	22
SAN JOSE ST.	Hawaii	0.7	28-27	-3
FLORIDA	Florida Int’l	52.0	52-0	41
Army	NORTH TEXAS	2.3	24-22	0
TROY	Florida Atlantic	16.6	34-17	14
UL-Monroe	UL-LAFAYETTE	3.6	27-23	2
MIDDLE TENNESSEE	Arkansas State	6.4	28-22	13

 

Bowl Speculating

 

Ohio State has become the second team to know where they will be bowling this year and the first team to clinch a BCS Bowl Bid.  However, the weekend may have muddied up the bowl projections more than helped clear things up.

 

The Atlantic Coast Conference

Georgia Tech continues to impress every week, and the Yellow Jackets have clinched the Coastal Division championship.  Clemson needs only to beat Virginia to earn the Atlantic Division title.  It is our opinion that Clemson will beat Georgia Tech in a rematch for the ACC Championship and Orange Bowl Bid.  At 11-2, the Yellow Jackets could still gain an at-large BCS Bowl Bid, but it would have to come at the expense of a 13-0 Boise State team.  With Wake Forest being ousted from bowl talk, it looks like the ACC will come up at least one team short and possibly two.  Duke must beat Wake Forest to get to six wins and make it to their first bowl in 15 years.

 

1. Orange Bowl—Clemson

2. Chick-fil-A—Virginia Tech

3. Gator—Georgia Tech

4. Champs Sports—Miami (Fl)

5. Music City—North Carolina

6. Meineke Car Care—Boston College

7. Emerald—Florida State

8. Eagle Bank—Duke

9. GMAC—No Team Available

 

The Big East

Cincinnati just escaped against West Virginia, while Pittsburgh handled Notre Dame.  The Panthers game with the Mountaineers in the “Backyard Brawl” actually doesn’t matter this year.  The winner of the Pitt-Cincinnati game wins the championship.  We’ll go with Coach Dave Wannstedt’s Panthers.  Cincinnati could qualify as an at-large BCS team at 11-1, but we don’t think the big bowls will take the Bearcats.  That might be the final straw for Brian Kelly in the Queen City.  He may bolt for South Bend or even Ann Arbor.

 

1. Orange Bowl—Pittsburgh

2. Sun—Cincinnati

3. Meineke Car Care—Rutgers

4. Papa John’s—South Florida

5. International—West Virginia

6. St. Petersburg—Connecticut

 

The Big Ten

Ohio State clinched the Big Ten Championship and Rose Bowl bid with the overtime win over Iowa.  It now looks like the second best team in this league will earn a last-minute BCS at-large bid.  If Iowa wins this week against Minnesota, the Hawkeyes should get that bid.

 

Michigan will not be bowl eligible after losing at home to Ohio State this weekend, so if the Big 10 gets a second BCS bowl team, they will come up one short.

 

1. Rose-OHIO STATE (accepted bid)

2. Fiesta—Iowa

3. Capital One—Wisconsin

4. Outback—Penn State

5. Alamo—Michigan State

6. Champs Sports—Minnesota

7. Insight—Northwestern

8. Pizza—No team available

 

The Big 12

Texas should quickly dispose of Kansas and Texas A&M to reach the Big 12 Title game, but a possible game against Nebraska could be quite interesting.  For now, we will stick with the notion that the Longhorns will run the table and make it to the National Championship Game.  If the Cornhuskers win out, they should still garner the Cotton Bowl bid if they lose to Texas.  With Iowa State winning its sixth game, and the only chance this conference has of getting a second team in the BCS being a Nebraska upset of Texas, we believe there will be one excess team.  However, that extra team will be 6-6 and out of luck.

 

1. National Championship—Texas

2. Cotton–Nebraska

3. Holiday—Oklahoma

4. Alamo—Oklahoma State

5. Sun—Missouri

6. Insight—Texas Tech

7. Independence—Kansas State

8. Texas—Texas A&M

 

Iowa State out of luck at 6-6

 

Conference USA

As Chester A. Riley would have said, “What a revoltin’ development this is!”  Houston’s loss to Central Florida has thrust SMU into first place in the West Division.  If Coach June Jones’ Mustangs beat Marshall this week, they are in the CUSA Championship Game.  Central Florida is now thickly in the East Division race, but it is now a four-team battle.  If UAB beats East Carolina and UCF, the Blazers would win the division title.  Who would have ever thought that on November 16, the CUSA Championship Game could still be a battle between SMU and UAB?

 

1. Liberty—East Carolina

2. Hawaii—Houston

3. Armed Forces—S M U

4. New Orleans—Southern Miss

5. St. Petersburg—Central Florida

 

Marshall & UAB at 6-6 will miss out on bowl bids

 

Independents

There’s no confusion here.  Navy has earned a Texas Bowl bid.  Army has failed to earn the Eagle Bank Bowl bid that is reserved for them this year.  Notre Dame’s BCS bowl hopes are gone and barring wins over both Connecticut and Stanford, the Irish won’t earn the Sun or Gator Bowl bids that they could receive.  However, with one more win, they become the top non-BCS at-large bowl hopeful.

 

1. Texas—Navy

2. Eagle Bank—Notre Dame (at-large)

 

Mid-American

The MAC will benefit from all the bowls that will need to seek at-large participants.  This league receives three automatic bowl bids, but we expect five schools to go bowling.  Central Michigan played in the Motor City Bowl last year (now the Pizza Bowl), so the Chippewas will probably be sent south to Mobile.

 

The Pizza Bowl will not have a Big 10 representative, and while they’d love to lure Notre Dame, the Irish will go to the highest bidder.  That will force them to invite a second MAC team.

 

1. G M A C—Central Michigan

2. Pizza—Temple

3. International—Ohio U

4. Humanitarian—Northern Illinois (at-large)

5. Pizza—Bowling Green (at-large)

 

Mountain West

T C U plays at Wyoming this weekend, and the Cowboys will be ready to give them all they can handle.  We think TCU will win by double digits, but it is one of those ambush situations.  A home finale with winless New Mexico will be little more than a scrimmage.

 

BYU and Utah close the regular season with their rivalry match, and the winner should wind up in Vegas.  Air Force has wrapped up the fourth bowl bid, and Wyoming is one win away from sneaking in as the fifth.  We expect them to beat Colorado State and get it.

 

1. Fiesta—T C U

2. Las Vegas—Utah

3. Poinsettia—B Y U

4. Armed Forces—Air Force

5. New Mexico—Wyoming

6. Humanitarian—No team available

 

Pac-10

This is another interesting race.  If Arizona beats Oregon this week, and Stanford beats California, then Arizona, Oregon, Oregon State, and Stanford will be tied for first with two conference losses.  Arizona would then win the Pac-10 and get the Rose Bowl bid.  However, the Wildcats must finish at Arizona State and at Southern Cal, and we see them failing to get to 7-2.  If Arizona beats Oregon, and Stanford beats Cal, then the Cardinal would be heading to Pasadena, unless Oregon State could win at Oregon “The Civil War.”  At 7-2, Oregon State gets the tiebreaker over Stanford.

 

1. Rose—Stanford

2. Holiday—Oregon

3. Sun—Southern Cal

4. Las Vegas—Arizona

5. Emerald—Oregon State

6. Poinsettia—California

 

U C L A will finish 6-6 and not receive a bid

 

Southeastern

Alabama will practice with Chattanooga this week, and then finish the regular season at Auburn.  It could be interesting for a half, but the Tide will head to Atlanta at 12-0.  Florida also has a breather with Florida International, but they have a tough finale with Florida State.  We believe the Seminoles have a small shot at pulling off the big upset.

 

With two BCS bowl bids virtually a certainty, the SEC will send 10 teams to bowls this year.

 

1. National Championship—Alabama

2. Sugar—Florida

3. Capital One—Ole Miss

4. Cotton—L S U

5. Outback—Tennessee

6. Chick-fil-A—Auburn

7. Music City—Georgia

8. Liberty—Arkansas

9. Independence—South Carolina

10. Papa John’s—Kentucky

 

Sunbelt

Troy has just about clinched the conference championship, so they will receive the sole automatic bowl bid.  Middle Tennessee has already reached the magic seven win mark, so the Blue Raiders will get an at-large bid.

 

1. New Orleans—Troy

2. G M A C—Middle Tennessee (at-large)

 

Western Athletic

Boise State cannot chalk up a perfect regular season just yet.  The Broncos still must face the most potent offense in the nation.  Nevada must play at Bronco Stadium, so Boise State should win and finish 13-0.  We strongly believe that while the BCS Bowls would rather invite a two-loss team from one of the big six conferences, they will have their arms pulled and be highly coerced into inviting a second non-BCS team into the BCS Bowl structure.  It’s funny how the threat of a Justice Department investigation can determine bowl participants.

 

1. Sugar—Boise State

2. Hawaii—Fresno State

3. New Mexico—Nevada

4. Humanitarian—Idaho

 

• * = At-large selection
• ALL CAPS AND BOLD = ACCEPTED BID

Bowl	Team	vs.	Team
New Mexico	Wyoming	vs.	Nevada
St. Petersburg	Connecticut	vs.	Central Fla
New Orleans	Troy	vs.	Southern Miss
Las Vegas	Utah	vs.	Arizona
Poinsettia	B Y U	vs.	California
Hawaii	Fresno St.	vs.	Houston
Little Caesar’s Pizza	Bowling Green *	vs.	Temple
Meineke Car Care	Boston College	vs.	Rutgers
Emerald	Oregon State	vs.	Florida State
Music City	Georgia	vs.	North Carolina
Independence	South Carolina	vs.	Kansas State
Eagle Bank	Duke	vs.	Notre Dame *
Champs Sports	Miami-Fl	vs.	Northwestern
Humanitarian	Idaho	vs.	Northern Illinois *
Holiday	Oklahoma	vs.	Oregon
Armed Forces	S M U	vs.	Air Force
Sun	Southern Cal	vs.	Missouri
Texas	Texas A&M	vs.	NAVY
Insight.com	Texas Tech	vs.	Minnesota
Chick-fil-A	Auburn	vs.	Va. Tech
Outback	Tennessee	vs.	Penn State
Capital One	Wisconsin	vs.	Ole Miss
Gator	Cincinnati	vs.	Ga. Tech
Rose	Stanford	vs.	OHIO STATE
Sugar	Florida	vs.	Boise State
International	West Virginia	vs.	Ohio U
Cotton	Nebraska	vs.	L S U
Papajohns.com	South Florida	vs.	Kentucky
Liberty	Arkansas	vs.	East Carolina
Alamo	Oklahoma St.	vs.	Michigan St.
Fiesta	Iowa	vs.	T C U
Orange	Clemson	vs.	Pittsburgh
G M A C	Middle Tennessee *	vs.	Central Mich.
National Championship	Alabama	vs.	Texas

 

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For College Football–November 10-15, 2009

Can This Week Be As Wacky As Last Week?

 

It happens every year; it usually happens in November, so it shouldn’t have come as a surprise.  After two thirds of the college season was in the books, teams all of a sudden started acting inconsistently.  Teams that couldn’t catch a break started catching breaks.  Teams that caught all the breaks stopped catching them.

 

Teams that had been given up for dead showed a new life.  Teams that consistently did something that made themselves very predictable (to the wagering public) did something completely different.

 

Iowa’s loss was coming.  You cannot win games every week by pulling them out in the final minutes.  When quarterback Ricky Stanzi went down with an injury, there was going to be no last minute heroics this time.

 

All of a sudden, Ron Zook’s Illinois team looks like they were supposed to look like in August.  Stranger things have happened, but it isn’t impossible that they could finish 6-6 after starting 1-6.  It isn’t probable either, because the Illini still have to play Cincinnati and Fresno State outside the Big 10 as well as Northwestern this week to close out conference play.

 

The two really consistent teams are the two BCS bowl-crashing wannabes.  TCU and Boise State both look invincible at the moment.  Both have tricky games this week.  The Horned Frogs get a one-loss Utah team, while Boise has to worry with in-state rival and bowl eligible Idaho.

 

NCAA Top 25 For November 9, 2009
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Texas	136.5	9	0
2	Florida	132.9	9	0
3	Alabama	129.2	8	0
4	Oklahoma	127.5	5	4
5	T C U	123.8	9	0
6	Southern Cal	120.4	7	2
7	Boise St.	119.9	9	0
8	Oregon	119.7	7	2
9	Georgia Tech	118.9	9	1
10	Ohio St.	118.4	8	2
11	Va. Tech	118.0	6	3
12	Okla. St.	117.0	7	2
13	Nebraska	116.9	6	3
14	Penn St.	116.8	8	2
15	Miami (Fla.)	116.7	7	2
16	Cincinnati	115.5	9	0
17	Pittsburgh	115.5	8	1
18	Stanford	115.0	6	3
19	Iowa	114.6	9	1
20	Clemson	114.2	6	3
21	Ole Miss	114.1	6	3
22	Tennessee	113.9	5	4
23	L  S  U	113.6	7	2
24	Arkansas	113.5	5	4
25	California	112.6	6	3
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Clemson	4-2	6-3	114.2
Boston College	3-2	6-3	110.8
Florida State	2-4	4-5	108.2
Wake Forest	2-4	4-6	105.1
North Carolina State	1-4	4-5	103.3
Maryland	1-4	2-7	91.3
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Georgia Tech	6-1	9-1	118.9
Virginia Tech	3-2	6-3	118.0
Miami-FL	4-2	7-2	116.7
North Carolina	2-3	6-3	109.0
Duke	3-2	5-4	101.8
Virginia	2-3	3-6	94.7

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Cincinnati	5-0	9-0	115.5
Pittsburgh	5-0	8-1	115.5
South Florida	2-2	6-2	105.3
West Virginia	3-1	7-2	104.2
Connecticut	1-4	4-5	103.1
Rutgers	1-2	6-2	101.8
Syracuse	0-4	3-6	92.2
Louisville	0-4	3-6	92.1

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Ohio State	5-1	8-2	118.4
Penn State	4-2	8-2	116.8
Iowa	5-1	9-1	114.6
Wisconsin	4-2	7-2	105.1
Michigan State	3-3	5-5	103.9
Minnesota	3-4	5-5	97.9
Northwestern	3-3	6-4	97.7
Michigan	1-5	5-5	97.3
Purdue	3-3	4-6	97.0
Illinois	2-5	3-6	96.2
Indiana	1-5	4-6	91.4

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	3-2	6-3	116.9
Kansas	1-4	5-4	104.7
Missouri	1-4	5-4	102.8
Kansas State	4-2	6-4	100.4
Colorado	2-3	3-6	95.7
Iowa State	2-4	5-5	94.5
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Texas	6-0	9-0	136.5
Oklahoma	3-2	5-4	127.5
Oklahoma State	4-1	7-2	117.0
Texas Tech	3-2	6-3	112.3
Baylor	1-4	4-5	101.6
Texas A&M	2-3	5-4	99.1

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Southern Mississippi	3-2	5-4	100.7
East Carolina	4-1	5-4	99.8
Marshall	3-2	5-4	95.7
Central Florida	3-2	5-4	95.3
U A B	3-2	4-5	90.3
Memphis	1-4	2-7	83.7
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Houston	4-1	8-1	106.2
Tulsa	2-3	4-5	96.9
U T E P	2-3	3-6	90.1
S M U	4-1	5-4	90.0
Rice	0-5	0-9	76.7
Tulane	1-4	3-6	75.5

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		6-3	107.7
Navy		7-3	102.6
Army		3-6	82.2

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	5-0	7-2	99.2
Buffalo	1-4	3-6	91.7
Ohio U	4-1	6-3	90.1
Bowling Green	3-2	4-5	89.3
Kent St.	4-2	5-5	87.4
Akron	1-4	2-7	84.0
Miami (O)	1-5	1-9	79.2
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Michigan	5-0	7-2	106.7
Northern Illinois	4-1	6-3	96.9
Western Michigan	3-3	4-6	87.5
Toledo	2-3	4-5	86.7
Ball State	1-4	1-8	81.3
Eastern Michigan	0-5	0-9	76.2

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	5-0	9-0	123.8
B Y U	4-1	7-2	112.2
Utah	5-0	8-1	106.5
Air Force	4-2	6-4	100.0
Colo. State	0-6	3-7	88.5
UNLV	2-4	4-6	88.1
S. D. State	2-3	4-5	87.8
Wyoming	2-3	4-5	86.7
New Mexico	0-5	0-9	74.5

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Southern Cal	4-2	7-2	120.4
Oregon	5-1	7-2	119.7
Stanford	5-2	6-3	115.0
California	3-3	6-3	112.6
Arizona	4-1	6-2	111.9
Oregon St.	4-2	6-3	108.1
U C L A	1-5	4-5	103.5
Arizona St.	2-4	4-5	102.8
Washington	2-4	3-6	98.7
Wash. St.	0-6	1-8	75.8

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida	7-0	9-0	132.9
Tennessee	2-3	5-4	113.9
Georgia	3-3	5-4	109.2
South Carolina	3-4	6-4	106.7
Kentucky	1-4	5-4	102.9
Vanderbilt	0-6	2-8	93.2
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Alabama	6-0	9-0	129.2
Ole Miss	2-3	6-3	114.1
L S U	4-2	7-2	113.6
Arkansas	2-4	5-4	113.5
Auburn	3-3	7-3	105.3
Mississippi State	2-3	4-5	101.6

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Troy	6-0	7-2	99.1
Middle Tennessee	4-1	6-3	91.8
Louisiana-Monroe	4-1	5-4	90.6
Arkansas State	1-3	2-6	89.7
U. of Louisiana	3-2	5-4	83.8
Florida Atlantic	2-2	2-6	83.3
Florida International	2-4	2-7	82.8
North Texas	1-5	2-7	76.2
Western Kentucky	0-5	0-9	72.0

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	4-0	9-0	119.9
Nevada	5-0	6-3	103.9
Fresno State	5-1	6-3	102.4
Louisiana Tech	2-4	3-6	95.7
Utah State	1-4	2-7	91.2
Idaho	4-2	7-3	90.6
Hawaii	1-5	3-6	84.8
San Jose State	0-4	1-7	82.8
New Mexico State	1-3	3-6	71.8

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Tuesday, November 10		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
BUFFALO	Ohio U	4.3	28-24	-2
Wednesday, November 11		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
CENTRAL MICHIGAN	Toledo	23.0	40-17	19
Thursday, November 5		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Bowling Green	MIAMI (O)	7.6	31-23	7
NORTHERN ILLINOIS	Ball State	18.8	38-19	21
South Florida	RUTGERS	0.1	24-24 ot	0
Friday, November 6		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Temple	AKRON	12.5	27-14	9
CINCINNATI	West Virginia	14.3	35-21	14
Saturday, November 7		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Boston College	VIRGINIA	13.1	27-14	8
ILLINOIS	Northwestern	1.5	21-19	2
LOUISVILLE	Syracuse	2.9	20-17	5
OHIO STATE	Iowa	7.3	21-14	7
WISCONSIN	Michigan	10.8	41-30	14
PENN STATE	Indiana	28.9	41-12	21
Michigan State	PURDUE	3.9	31-27	2
Florida State	WAKE FOREST	0.1	20-20 ot	0
Clemson	NORTH CAROLINA ST.	7.9	31-23	12
Georgia Tech	DUKE	14.4	38-24	13
Kentucky	VANDERBILT	7.2	20-13	8
Texas	BAYLOR	32.2	45-13	23
Virginia Tech	MARYLAND	24.0	34-10	19
Western Michigan	EASTERN MICHIGAN	8.8	26-17	10
OLE MISS	Tennessee	3.2	27-24	2
B y u	NEW MEXICO	35.0	42-7	28
Nebraska	KANSAS	9.2	21-12	5
U  a  b	MEMPHIS	3.9	31-27	4
IOWA STATE	Colorado	1.8	26-24	7
U  c  l  a	WASHINGTON ST.	24.7	38-13	14
BOISE STATE	Idaho	32.3	45-13	25
S M U	U t e p	2.9	35-34	11
PITTSBURGH	Notre Dame	10.8	28-17	10
SOUTHERN CAL	Stanford	8.4	28-20	8
CALIFORNIA	Arizona	3.7	28-24	0
OREGON	Arizona State	20.4	34-14	20
KANSAS STATE	Missouri	0.6	24-23	2
OKLAHOMA	Texas A&M	31.4	38-7	14
UTAH STATE	San Jose St.	11.1	35-24	8
NEVADA	Fresno State	4.5	35-30	-1
RICE	Tulane	3.7	35-31	-1
AIR FORCE	U n l v	14.9	31-16	16
OREGON STATE	Washington	12.4	33-21	12
Florida	SOUTH CAROLINA	23.2	35-13	17
Alabama	MISSISSIPPI STATE	24.6	35-10	14
Southern Miss	MARSHALL	2.0	26-24	-2
Miami-Fl	NORTH CAROLINA	4.7	28-23	4
OKLAHOMA STATE	Texas Tech	7.7	40-32	4
T C U	Utah	20.3	30-10	16
GEORGIA	Auburn	6.9	31-24	2
Houston	CENTRAL FLORIDA	7.9	38-30	8
L S U	Louisiana Tech	20.6	31-10	22
SAN DIEGO STATE	Wyoming	4.3	24-20	4
HAWAII	New Mexico State	17.0	45-28	13
FLORIDA ATLANTIC	Arkansas St.	9.8	31-21	0
UL-MONROE	Western Ky	21.3	38-17	24
ARKANSAS	Troy	17.9	45-27	12
FLA. INT’L	North Texas	9.6	34-24	7
MIDDLE TENNESSEE	UL-Lafayette	11.0	35-24	12
Sunday, November 15		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
TULSA	East Carolina	0.1	27-27 ot	1

 

Bowl Projections

CAPS/Bold = Excepted Bid

Italics = at-large invitation

 

Bowl	Conference		Conference	Team	Team
New Mexico	MWC #4	vs.	WAC #3	San Diego St.	Nevada
St. Petersburg	Big East #6	vs.	C-USA #5	Middle Tennessee	Southern Miss
New Orleans	Sunbelt #1	vs.	C-USA #4	Troy	East Carolina
Las Vegas	MWC #1	vs.	Pac 10 #4 or 5	B Y U	Stanford
Poinsettia	MWC #2	vs.	Pac 10 #6	Utah	U C L A
Hawaii	WAC	vs.	C-USA	Fresno St.	Marshall
Little Caesar’s Pizza	Big 10 #7	vs.	MAC #1 or 2	Minnesota	Northern Illinois
Meineke Car Care	ACC #5-6-7	vs.	Big East #3	Boston Coll	Rutgers
Emerald	Pac 10 #4 or 5	vs.	ACC #5-6-7	Oregon State	Wake Forest
Music City	SEC #6 or 7	vs.	ACC #5-6-7	Georgia	North Carolina
Independence	SEC #8	vs.	Big 12 #7	South Carolina	Missouri
Eagle Bank	ACC #8	vs.	Army/C-USA	Ohio U	Central Florida
Champs Sports	ACC #4	vs.	Big 10 #5	Va. Tech	Northwestern
Humanitarian	WAC #1	vs.	MWC	Idaho	Bowling Green
Holiday	Big 12 #3	vs.	Pac 10 #2	Nebraska	Arizona
Armed Forces	C-USA #3	vs.	MWC #3	S M U	Air Force
Sun	Pac 10 #3	vs.	B E #2 or B12 #5	California	Oklahoma
Texas	Big 12 #8	vs.	Navy or C-USA	Texas A&M	NAVY
Insight.com	Big 12 #6	vs.	Big 10 #6	Kansas State	Michigan State
Chick-fil-A	SEC #5	vs.	ACC #2	Ole Miss	Miami-Fl
Outback	SEC #3 or 4	vs.	Big 10 #3	Tennessee	Penn State
Capital One	Big 10 #2	vs.	SEC #2	Iowa	L S U
Gator	B E #2 or B12 #5	vs.	ACC #3	Cincinnati	Ga. Tech
Rose	BCS Pac10	vs.	BCS Big 10	Oregon	Ohio State
Sugar	BCS SEC	vs.	BCS At-Large	Alabama	Boise State
International	Big East #5	vs.	MAC #3	West Va.	Temple
Cotton	Big 12 #2	vs.	SEC #3 or 4	Oklahoma State	Auburn
Papajohns.com	Big East #4	vs.	SEC #9	S. Florida	Kentucky
Liberty	SEC #6 or 7	vs.	C-USA #1	Arkansas	Houston
Alamo	Big 10 #4	vs.	Big 12 #4	Wisconsin	Texas Tech
Fiesta	BCS Big 12	vs.	BCS At-Large	Southern Cal	T C U
Orange	BCS ACC	vs.	BCS At-Large	Clemson	Pittsburgh
G M A C	ACC #9	vs.	MAC	Notre Dame	Central Michigan
National Championship	*** BCS #1 ***	vs.	*** BCS #2 ***	Florida	Texas

 

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For College Football–November 3-7, 2009

Several Big Games To Highlight Weekend

PiRate Ratings Go 9-2 Against Spread

 

Several key games dot the college football schedule this week, and because so many could go either way, we think it’s time to start paring the number of college games we select.  After a 9-2 against the spread, the PiRates are counting their booty.  Our two week record against the spread is 17-3-1, and our percentage for the season is now 63.5% (54-31-2).  We will be playing with Vegas’s money the rest of the year, so we will guarantee ourselves a winning season and play fewer games from here on out, unless we see too many easy ones to pass up.

 

That 9-2 record was really nice, but when we see just how close we came to going 11-0, it is almost a tad disappointing.  We had Indiana +17, and for so long that game looked good until Iowa scored four quick touchdowns.  The other loss was on a 10-point teaser, and two of the three games had already won when a late Brett Favre touchdown pass moved the total score from 57 to 64 points (The 10-point teaser line was 57 ½).  We won with Minnesota +3 vs. Green Bay, Georgia Tech -11 vs. Vanderbilt, Illinois +7 vs. Michigan, Louisville -165 money line vs. Arkansas St., Houston -3 vs. Buffalo, Baltimore -3 ½ vs. Denver, North Carolina +16 ½ vs. Va. Tech, and three teasers.

 

NCAA Top 25 For October 26, 2009
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Texas	136.3	8	0
2	Florida	133.4	8	0
3	Oklahoma	129.8	5	3
4	Alabama	128.9	7	0
5	Oregon	121.9	7	1
6	T C U	121.8	8	0
7	Southern Cal	120.9	6	2
8	Boise St.	119.7	8	0
9	Georgia Tech	119.2	8	1
10	Penn St.	118.9	8	1
11	Iowa	117.9	9	0
12	Va. Tech	117.9	5	3
13	Ohio St.	116.4	7	2
14	Okla. St.	116.0	6	2
15	California	115.8	6	2
16	Cincinnati	115.3	8	0
17	Pittsburgh	115.3	7	1
18	Nebraska	115.1	5	3
19	Ole Miss	114.1	5	3
20	L  S  U	113.9	7	1
21	Miami (Fla.)	113.7	6	2
22	Tennessee	113.6	4	4
23	Arkansas	112.8	4	4
24	Clemson	112.7	5	3
25	Stanford	112.3	5	3
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
Even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Clemson	3-2	5-3	112.7
Boston College	3-2	6-3	110.8
Florida State	2-3	4-4	109.7
Wake Forest	2-3	4-5	104.8
North Carolina State	0-4	3-5	103.2
Maryland	1-3	2-6	91.4
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Georgia Tech	5-1	8-1	119.2
Virginia Tech	3-2	5-3	117.9
Miami-FL	3-2	6-2	113.7
North Carolina	1-3	5-3	108.3
Duke	3-1	5-3	102.5
Virginia	2-2	3-5	98.2

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Cincinnati	4-0	8-0	115.3
Pittsburgh	4-0	7-1	115.3
South Florida	2-2	6-2	105.3
West Virginia	2-1	6-2	104.1
Connecticut	1-3	4-4	103.6
Rutgers	1-2	6-2	101.8
Syracuse	0-3	3-5	92.4
Louisville	0-3	3-5	92.4

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Penn State	4-1	8-1	118.9
Iowa	5-0	9-0	117.9
Ohio State	4-1	7-2	116.4
Wisconsin	3-2	6-2	105.0
Michigan State	3-3	4-5	102.6
Minnesota	3-3	5-4	100.1
Michigan	1-4	5-4	98.3
Purdue	2-3	3-6	95.6
Northwestern	2-3	5-4	94.9
Illinois	1-5	2-6	94.0
Indiana	1-4	4-5	91.5

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	2-2	5-3	115.1
Kansas	1-3	5-3	105.9
Missouri	1-3	5-3	104.9
Kansas State	3-2	5-4	98.9
Iowa State	2-3	5-4	95.5
Colorado	1-3	2-6	95.0
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Texas	5-0	8-0	136.3
Oklahoma	3-1	5-3	129.8
Oklahoma State	3-1	6-2	116.0
Texas Tech	3-2	6-3	112.3
Texas A&M	2-2	5-3	99.8
Baylor	0-4	3-5	99.0

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team			Conf.	Overall		Rating
Southern Mississippi			3-2	5-4		100.7
East Carolina			4-1	5-3		99.9
Marshall			3-2	5-4		95.7
Central Florida			3-2	5-3		95.5
U A B			3-2	3-5		88.9
Memphis			1-4	2-6		84.0
West Division
Team			Conf.	Overall		Rating
Houston			3-1	7-1		106.0
Tulsa			2-2	4-4		97.1
U T E P			2-2	3-5		91.8
S M U			3-1	4-4		90.3
Rice			0-4	0-8		76.4
Tulane			0-4	2-6		73.8
Independents
Team		Overall			Rating
Notre Dame		6-2			109.4
Navy		6-3			100.6
Army		3-5			82.7

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	4-0	6-2	100.2
Buffalo	1-3	3-5	92.4
Ohio U	4-1	6-3	90.1
Kent St.	4-1	5-4	88.9
Bowling Green	2-2	3-5	88.6
Akron	0-4	1-7	82.5
Miami (O)	1-4	1-8	77.4
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Michigan	5-0	7-2	106.7
Northern Illinois	3-1	5-3	94.4
Western Michigan	3-3	4-5	88.4
Toledo	2-3	4-5	86.7
Ball State	1-4	1-8	81.3
Eastern Michigan	0-4	0-8	79.2

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	4-0	8-0	121.8
B Y U	3-1	6-2	109.8
Utah	4-0	7-1	106.3
Air Force	4-2	5-4	99.5
S. D. State	2-2	4-4	89.8
Colo. State	0-5	3-6	89.8
Wyoming	2-2	4-4	89.1
UNLV	1-4	3-6	86.8
New Mexico	0-4	0-8	74.7

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oregon	5-0	7-1	121.9
Southern Cal	3-2	6-2	120.9
California	3-2	6-2	115.8
Stanford	4-2	5-3	112.3
Arizona	3-1	5-2	111.4
Oregon St.	3-2	5-3	105.4
U C L A	0-5	3-5	103.5
Arizona St.	2-3	4-4	102.8
Washington	2-3	3-5	98.7
Wash. St.	0-5	1-7	76.3

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida	6-0	8-0	133.4
Tennessee	2-3	4-4	113.6
Georgia	3-3	4-4	109.2
South Carolina	3-3	6-3	107.6
Kentucky	1-4	4-4	102.9
Vanderbilt	0-5	2-7	92.7
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Alabama	5-0	8-0	128.9
Ole Miss	2-3	5-3	114.1
L S U	4-1	7-1	113.9
Arkansas	1-4	4-4	112.8
Auburn	3-3	6-3	105.3
Mississippi State	2-3	4-5	101.6

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Troy	5-0	6-2	99.1
Arkansas State	1-2	2-5	92.3
Middle Tennessee	3-1	5-3	89.7
Louisiana-Monroe	3-0	3-4	88.1
Florida International	2-3	2-6	84.9
Florida Atlantic	2-2	2-5	84.7
Louisiana	2-2	4-4	81.2
North Texas	1-4	2-6	78.7
Western Kentucky	0-4	0-8	71.7

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	3-0	8-0	119.7
Fresno State	4-1	5-3	102.4
Nevada	4-0	5-3	100.4
Louisiana Tech	2-3	3-5	95.9
Utah State	1-3	2-6	93.7
Idaho	4-1	7-2	90.6
San Jose State	0-3	1-6	86.3
Hawaii	0-5	2-6	82.0
New Mexico State	1-3	3-6	71.8

 

Reminder: Don’t use these ratings against the spread when you pick games.  We rely on several other factors when we pick games against the spread. For our weekly picks, go to www.piratings.webs.com and select “Picks vs. Vegas Line.”  We’re a great bargain at just $5 per week.   This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Tuesday, November 3		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
BUFFALO	Bowling Green	6.5	28-21	0
Thursday, November 5		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
NORTHERN ILLINOIS	Eastern Michigan	18.2	35-17	23
TEMPLE	Miami-OH	25.5	33-7	19
Virginia Tech	EAST CAROLINA	15.0	27-12	10
Friday, November 6		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Boise State	LOUISIANA TECH	20.5	34-13	22
Saturday, November 7		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
MICHIGAN STATE	Western Michigan	16.7	34-17	14
CINCINNATI	Connecticut	14.7	24-9	18
PITTSBURGH	Syracuse	25.9	35-9	24
IOWA	Northwestern	26.2	36-10	23
MINNESOTA	Illinois	9.3	35-26	11
WEST VIRGINIA	Louisville	14.7	35-20	15
N. C. STATE	Maryland	14.8	35-20	7
GEORGIA TECH	Wake Forest	17.4	41-24	17
NORTH CAROLINA	Duke	7.8	31-23	7
Wisconsin	INDIANA	10.5	34-23	11
ARKANSAS	South Carolina	8.2	35-27	6
Oklahoma State	IOWA STATE	17.8	35-17	6
MISSOURI	Baylor	8.9	21-12	11
FLORIDA	Vanderbilt	44.0	47-3	37
Brigham Young	WYOMING	17.7	31-13	11
NOTRE DAME	Navy	12.3	38-26	9
S M U	Rice	16.6	34-17	24
U t e p	TULANE	15.3	42-27	6
ALABAMA	L s u	18.2	28-10	9
TEXAS	Central Florida	44.8	52-7	32
Kent State	AKRON	3.9	24-20	6
AIR FORCE	Army	19.8	30-10	21
Kansas	KANSAS STATE	5.0	27-22	1
Oklahoma	NEBRASKA	11.7	24-12	2
PENN STATE	Ohio State	5.5	16-10	5
T c u	SAN DIEGO STATE	29.0	42-13	25
Fresno State	IDAHO	8.8	30-21	6
UTAH	New Mexico	34.6	42-7	33
ARIZONA	Washington State	38.3	55-17	27
CALIFORNIA	Oregon State	13.4	27-14	6
U C L A	Washington	7.8	35-27	4
Oregon	STANFORD	6.9	31-24	10
Texas A&M	COLORADO	1.8	28-26	7
MIAMI-FL	Virginia	18.7	33-14	14
TENNESSEE	Memphis	32.6	47-14	28
CLEMSON	Florida State	6.0	34-28	10
Houston	TULSA	5.9	37-31	8
Southern Cal	ARIZONA STATE	15.1	38-23	11
MICHIGAN	Purdue	5.7	30-24	6
Colorado State	U N L V	0.3	24-24 ot	0
Utah State	HAWAII	8.7	30-21	1
U A B	Florida Atlantic	6.7	30-23	5
UL-Monroe	NORTH TEXAS	6.7	34-27	5
Troy	WESTERN KENTUCKY	24.9	45-20	26
ARKANSAS STATE	UL-Lafayette	13.8	34-20	10
MIDDLE TENNESSEE	Florida Int’l	7.8	24-16	12

 

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For College Football–October 27-31, 2009

A New Number One In The PiRate Ratings

PiRate Picks Go 8-2-1 against the Spread

 

For the first time this season, the Florida Gators don’t occupy the top spot in the PiRate Ratings.  However, unlike some polls and other ratings, it’s not Alabama that has displaced Tebow Incorporated.  Texas surpassed Florida following an impressive blowout win at Missouri.  If the Longhorns can win at Oklahoma State, it looks highly favorable for Coach Mack Brown to direct the Longhorns to their second National Championship Game appearance in five years.

 

We receive e-mails from readers (pirate_ratings@live.com), asking how a team like Oklahoma can be rated so high with three losses.  We must remind you that the PiRate Ratings Top 25 is not a poll like those voted on by journalists or coaches.  These ratings do not rank teams based on what they have done so far this season.  They are meant to estimate the point spread differential between teams before applying home field advantage and about a dozen other variables.

 

Additionally, we must reiterate that you should not use the raw PiRate Ratings when picking games against the spread.  We only use it as a beginning point.  For example, let’s take a look at a sample game from last week—Rutgers at Army.  Rutgers entered the week with a Pirate Rating of 100.8 compared to Army at 82.9.  That’s a spread of 17.9.  Army’s home field advantage for the weeknight nationally televised game was just two points.  So, now we have Rutgers favored by 15.9.  Next, we looked at several variables to see how they affected this particular game.  One major variable was Rutgers’ run defense being superior to the average run defense, while Army relies almost exclusively on the run.  That tilted our in-house spread by three points in Rutgers’ favor, making it now 18.9.  RU had an extra day to prepare, and we moved the in-house spread by 1.5 points, making it 20.4.  The Las Vegas line for the game was Rutgers by 10, and our spread differed by 10.4.  Thus Rutgers -10 became our top college selection for the week.

 

If you want this week’s selections by Thursday afternoon, go to www.piratings.webs.com and click on “Picks vs. Vegas Line.”  We offer a bargain at just $5 per week.  We had dozens of happy customers last week when our picks finished 8-2-1.  For the season, our record against the spread is now 45-29-2 for 60.8%.

 

NCAA Top 25 For October 26, 2009
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Texas	135.8	7	0
2	Florida	133.2	7	0
3	Oklahoma	129.8	4	3
4	Alabama	130.2	7	0
5	Southern Cal	124.1	6	1
6	T C U	121.2	7	0
7	Va. Tech	120.5	5	2
8	Boise St.	116.6	7	0
9	Penn St.	116.6	7	1
10	Oregon	116.5	6	1
11	Georgia Tech	116.4	7	1
12	Iowa	117.3	8	0
13	Ole Miss	116.7	5	2
14	Okla. St.	116.5	6	1
15	Ohio St.	116.4	6	2
16	California	115.7	5	2
17	Pittsburgh	115.3	7	1
18	Nebraska	114.9	4	3
19	Cincinnati	114.5	7	0
20	L  S  U	113.7	6	1
21	Miami (Fla.)	113.6	5	2
22	Arkansas	112.5	3	4
23	Clemson	112.4	4	3
24	Stanford	112.3	5	3
25	Arizona	111.4	5	2
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Clemson	3-2	4-3	112.4
Florida State	1-3	3-4	110.4
Boston College	3-2	5-3	109.0
Wake Forest	2-2	4-4	104.9
North Carolina State	0-3	3-4	102.5
Maryland	1-3	2-6	91.4
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Virginia Tech	3-1	5-2	120.5
Georgia Tech	5-1	7-1	118.4
Miami-FL	2-2	5-2	113.6
North Carolina	0-3	4-3	105.7
Duke	2-1	4-3	100.9
Virginia	2-1	3-4	100.0

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Pittsburgh	4-0	7-1	115.3
Cincinnati	3-0	7-0	114.5
West Virginia	2-0	6-1	105.1
Connecticut	1-2	4-3	104.4
South Florida	1-2	5-2	104.3
Rutgers	0-2	5-2	101.0
Syracuse	0-2	3-4	92.9
Louisville	0-3	2-5	91.7

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Penn State	3-1	7-1	118.6
Iowa	4-0	8-0	117.3
Ohio State	4-1	6-2	116.4
Michigan State	3-2	4-4	103.9
Wisconsin	2-2	5-2	102.0
Michigan	1-3	5-3	101.8
Minnesota	2-3	4-4	98.8
Purdue	2-2	3-5	98.6
Northwestern	2-2	5-3	95.2
Indiana	1-3	4-4	91.8
Illinois	0-5	1-6	91.0

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	1-2	4-3	114.9
Kansas	1-2	5-2	107.7
Missouri	0-3	4-3	103.2
Kansas State	3-1	5-3	98.9
Iowa State	2-2	5-3	97.3
Colorado	1-2	2-5	96.7
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Texas	4-0	7-0	135.8
Oklahoma	2-1	4-3	129.8
Oklahoma State	3-0	6-1	116.5
Texas Tech	2-2	5-3	111.0
Baylor	0-3	3-4	99.4
Texas A&M	1-2	4-3	97.7

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Southern Mississippi	3-1	5-3	100.8
East Carolina	3-1	4-3	98.6
Marshall	3-1	5-3	95.9
Central Florida	2-2	4-3	95.3
U A B	2-2	2-5	87.6
Memphis	1-3	2-5	85.5
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Houston	2-1	6-1	105.9
Tulsa	2-1	4-3	100.3
U T E P	2-1	3-4	93.1
S M U	2-1	3-4	87.8
Rice	0-4	0-8	76.4
Tulane	0-4	2-5	74.0

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		5-2	109.2
Navy		6-2	102.0
Army		3-5	82.7

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	4-0	5-2	98.5
Buffalo	1-3	3-5	92.4
Ohio U	3-1	5-3	89.9
Bowling Green	2-2	3-5	88.6
Kent St.	3-1	4-4	87.8
Akron	0-3	1-6	83.6
Miami (O)	0-4	0-8	75.5
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Michigan	5-0	7-1	108.2
Northern Illinois	2-1	4-3	93.3
Western Michigan	3-2	4-4	89.5
Toledo	2-2	4-4	88.9
Ball State	1-3	1-7	81.5
Eastern Michigan	0-4	0-7	79.5

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	3-0	7-0	121.2
B Y U	3-1	6-2	109.8
Utah	3-0	6-1	106.8
Air Force	3-2	4-4	98.6
Colo. State	0-4	3-5	90.7
S. D. State	1-2	3-4	90.3
Wyoming	2-1	4-3	88.6
UNLV	1-3	3-5	87.4
New Mexico	0-3	0-7	74.4

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Southern Cal	3-1	6-1	124.1
Oregon	4-0	6-1	118.5
California	2-2	5-2	115.7
Stanford	4-2	5-3	112.3
Arizona	3-1	5-2	111.4
Oregon St.	2-2	4-3	104.8
U C L A	0-4	3-4	104.1
Arizona St.	2-2	4-3	102.9
Washington	2-3	3-5	98.7
Wash. St.	0-5	1-6	76.5

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida	5-0	7-0	133.2
Tennessee	1-3	3-4	111.9
Georgia	3-2	4-3	109.4
South Carolina	3-2	6-2	108.8
Kentucky	1-3	4-3	105.1
Vanderbilt	0-5	2-6	93.5
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Alabama	5-0	8-0	128.9
Ole Miss	2-2	5-2	116.7
L S U	4-1	6-1	113.7
Arkansas	1-4	3-4	112.5
Auburn	2-3	5-3	102.7
Mississippi State	1-3	3-5	99.4

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Troy	4-0	5-2	98.6
Arkansas State	1-2	2-4	93.0
Middle Tennessee	2-1	4-3	89.4
Louisiana-Monroe	3-0	3-4	88.1
Florida International	1-3	1-6	85.1
Florida Atlantic	2-1	2-4	85.0
Louisiana	2-1	4-3	81.0
North Texas	0-4	1-6	77.7
Western Kentucky	0-3	0-7	72.7

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	2-0	7-0	118.6
Fresno State	3-1	4-3	102.7
Nevada	3-0	4-3	100.3
Louisiana Tech	2-2	3-4	96.2
Utah State	1-2	2-5	93.4
Idaho	3-1	6-2	90.3
San Jose State	0-2	1-5	87.1
Hawaii	0-4	2-5	82.1
New Mexico State	1-3	3-5	71.8

This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Tuesday, October 27		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
East Carolina	MEMPHIS	10.4	30-20	7
Wednesday, October 28		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
None
Thursday, October 29		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
VIRGINIA TECH	North Carolina	18.0	28-10	18
Friday, October 30		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
SOUTH FLORIDA	West Virginia	2.4	28-26	0
Saturday, October 31		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
CONNECTICUT	Rutgers	6.4	27-21	5
Cincinnati	SYRACUSE	18.9	31-12	21
BOSTON COLLEGE	Central Michigan	4.3	28-24	2
Ohio U	BALL STATE	5.9	20-14	10
VIRGINIA	Duke	2.1	19-17	5
IOWA	Indiana	28.7	35-6	24
WISCONSIN	Purdue	6.4	30-24	10
Miami (Fl)	WAKE FOREST	6.0	27-21	7
FLORIDA STATE	North Carolina St.	11.1	35-24	12
NORTHERN ILLINOIS	Akron	12.7	27-14	17
OHIO STATE	New Mexico St.	48.6	49-0	36
Georgia Tech	VANDERBILT	22.2	31-9	20
TEXAS A&M	Iowa State	3.7	31-27	1
Ole Miss	AUBURN	10.8	31-20	1
ARKANSAS	Eastern Michigan	37.0	47-10	35
KENT STATE	Western Michigan	1.0	24-23	1
Nebraska	BAYLOR	13.0	23-10	9
TULSA	S  m  u	15.5	40-24	9
U  T  E  P	U  a  b	8.5	30-21	8
BOISE STATE	San Jose State	34.7	45-10	33
Florida      (N)	Georgia	23.8	34-10	20
Toledo	MIAMI (O)	10.9	35-24	5
OREGON STATE	U  c  l  a	3.9	27-23	9
NAVY	Temple	6.5	24-17	10
California	ARIZONA STATE	9.8	34-24	5
Michigan	ILLINOIS	8.1	31-23	10
Missouri	COLORADO	3.5	28-24	3
OKLAHOMA	Kansas State	34.1	41-7	19
Texas	OKLAHOMA STATE	16.1	40-24	9
NEVADA	Hawaii	21.7	45-23	15
T  C  U	U  n  l  v	37.0	40-3	33
Air Force	COLORADO STATE	5.2	21-16	4
Penn State	NORTHWESTERN	20.4	30-10	16
Louisiana Tech	IDAHO	2.9	31-28	6
FRESNO STATE	Utah State	12.5	27-14	18
KENTUCKY	Mississippi State	8.7	30-21	8
TEXAS TECH	Kansas	6.3	34-28	6
SAN DIEGO STATE	New Mexico	18.6	35-16	19
NOTRE DAME	Washington State	36.7	51-14	25
TENNESSEE	South Carolina	6.3	20-14	5
Southern Cal	OREGON	2.4	30-28	-4
HOUSTON	Southern Miss	8.1	35-27	11
UTAH	Wyoming	21.2	35-14	19
L  S  U	Tulane	42.2	49-7	36
Michigan State	MINNESOTA	2.1	24-22	1
LOUISVILLE	Arkansas State	1.7	26-24	3
FLORIDA INT’L	U L-Lafayette	6.6	24-17	2
NORTH TEXAS	Western Kentucky	7.5	34-26	12
Middle Tennessee	FLORIDA ATLANTIC	1.7	30-28	0
TROY	U L-Monroe	13.5	41-27	9

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For College Football–October 21-24, 2009

Time To Start Bowl Projecting

 

With the initial BCS ranking coming out this week, it’s time for the PiRates to start projecting the bowls.  Of course, the only one that really matters is the National Championship Game.  It looks rather easy as of right now.  Most of our competitors are picking Texas to play the winner of the Florida-Alabama SEC Championship Game.  We don’t concur for one reason—we think Texas will lose one of its remaining Big 12 games.  The Longhorns have squeaked by Texas Tech and Oklahoma.  We think either Missouri, Oklahoma State, or even Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship Game could knock the Longhorns off their perch.

 

That presents a major problem for the BCS.  Boise State is sitting at number four, and the Broncos have only Idaho and Nevada left on their schedule to worry about.  BSU should run the table and could move up to number two in the Harris and USA Today polls by the end of the season.  Could a Florida or Alabama game against Boise State be possible?  We think the numbers will be fudged just enough to allow a possible rematch of the SEC championship Game for the National Championship Game.

 

Another strong possibility could leave an undefeated team in the Top 10 out of the BCS Bowl picture.  TCU could easily run the table and finish 12-0 and around number six in the final regular season poll.  The at-large rules wouldn’t guarantee the Horned Frogs an automatic at-large bid if Boise State finished undefeated and ahead of them in the BCS standings.  It would come down to one of the big bowls, like the Sugar Bowl to choose between them and a possible 10-2 Southern Cal or 11-1 Cincinnati team.

 

As of today, we are projecting Pittsburgh to edge Cincinnati for the Big East title and Oregon to beat USC in the Pac-10.  That could change, but if both the Bearcats and Trojans lose those games, they could still be selected as at-large teams over an undefeated TCU team. 

 

The PiRate Ratings have seen the top teams coming back to the pack.  Florida and Texas no longer have the big gap between them and the rest of the Top 10.  Both the Gators and Longhorns were very fortunate to come out of Saturday undefeated.

 

NCAA Top 25 For October 12, 2009
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Florida	137.4	6	0
2	Texas	133.1	6	0
3	Alabama	130.2	7	0
4	Oklahoma	129.0	3	3
5	Southern Cal	124.4	5	1
6	Va. Tech	120.5	5	2
7	T C U	117.9	6	0
8	Iowa	117.2	7	0
9	Nebraska	116.4	4	2
10	Boise St.	116.3	6	0
11	Ole Miss	116.3	4	2
12	Penn St.	116.1	6	1
13	Georgia Tech	116.1	6	1
14	Texas Tech	115.5	5	2
15	California	115.2	4	2
16	Oregon	115.1	5	1
17	Miami (Fla.)	115.0	5	1
18	Ohio St.	114.8	5	2
19	Okla. St.	114.3	5	1
20	Cincinnati	113.3	6	0
21	B  Y  U	113.1	6	1
22	Arkansas	112.9	3	3
23	Pittsburgh	112.4	6	1
24	L  S  U	112.4	5	1
25	Stanford	111.2	4	3
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Clemson	2-2	3-3	111.0
Florida State	0-3	2-4	110.0
Boston College	3-2	5-2	109.2
Wake Forest	2-2	4-3	105.5
North Carolina State	0-3	3-4	102.5
Maryland	1-2	2-5	91.5
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Virginia Tech	3-1	5-2	120.5
Georgia Tech	4-1	6-1	116.1
Miami-FL	2-1	5-1	115.0
North Carolina	0-3	4-2	106.1
Virginia	2-0	3-3	102.3
Duke	1-1	3-3	100.8

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Cincinnati	2-0	6-0	113.3
Pittsburgh	3-0	6-1	112.4
South Florida	1-1	5-1	107.2
Connecticut	1-1	4-2	105.0
West Virginia	1-0	5-1	104.5
Rutgers	0-2	4-2	100.8
Louisville	0-2	2-4	92.9
Syracuse	0-2	2-4	92.6

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Iowa	3-0	7-0	117.2
Penn State	2-1	6-1	116.1
Ohio State	3-1	5-2	114.8
Michigan	1-2	5-2	104.3
Michigan State	3-1	4-3	104.0
Wisconsin	2-2	5-2	102.0
Minnesota	2-2	4-3	100.4
Purdue	1-2	2-5	98.4
Northwestern	1-2	4-3	94.9
Indiana	1-2	4-3	92.1
Illinois	0-4	1-5	91.2

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	1-1	4-2	116.4
Kansas	1-1	5-1	108.5
Missouri	0-2	4-2	105.9
Colorado	1-1	2-4	98.0
Kansas State	2-1	4-3	97.6
Iowa State	1-2	4-3	95.8
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Texas	3-0	6-0	133.1
Oklahoma	1-1	3-3	129.0
Texas Tech	2-1	5-2	115.5
Oklahoma State	2-0	5-1	114.3
Baylor	0-2	3-3	101.6
Texas A&M	0-2	3-3	93.2

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Southern Mississippi	2-1	4-3	100.0
East Carolina	3-1	4-3	98.6
Marshall	2-1	4-3	94.7
Central Florida	1-2	3-3	93.3
U A B	2-1	2-4	88.8
Memphis	1-3	2-5	85.5
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Houston	1-1	5-1	105.6
Tulsa	2-0	4-2	101.5
U T E P	1-1	2-4	90.9
S M U	2-0	3-3	88.1
Rice	0-3	0-7	78.4
Tulane	0-3	2-4	74.8

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		4-2	109.0
Navy		5-2	101.4
Army		3-4	82.9

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	3-0	4-2	97.2
Buffalo	1-2	3-4	92.7
Ohio U	3-0	5-2	92.6
Bowling Green	2-1	3-4	88.7
Kent St.	2-1	3-4	85.1
Akron	0-3	1-5	83.9
Miami (O)	0-3	0-7	75.7
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Michigan	4-0	6-1	108.1
Northern Illinois	1-1	3-3	93.1
Toledo	2-1	4-3	90.2
Western Michigan	2-2	3-4	89.2
Ball State	0-3	0-7	80.7
Eastern Michigan	0-3	0-6	80.3

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	2-0	6-0	117.9
B Y U	3-0	6-1	113.1
Utah	2-0	5-1	106.5
Air Force	3-1	4-3	98.9
Colo. State	0-3	3-4	92.8
Wyoming	2-1	4-3	88.6
S. D. State	0-2	2-4	88.2
UNLV	0-3	2-5	85.4
New Mexico	0-2	0-6	76.4

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Southern Cal	2-1	5-1	124.4
California	1-2	4-2	115.2
Oregon	3-0	5-1	115.1
Stanford	3-2	4-3	111.2
Arizona	2-1	4-2	110.7
U C L A	0-3	3-3	104.8
Oregon St.	2-1	4-2	104.5
Arizona St.	2-1	4-2	104.0
Washington	2-2	3-4	102.1
Wash. St.	0-4	1-5	77.0

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida	4-0	6-0	134.9
Tennessee	1-2	3-3	110.6
Georgia	3-2	4-3	109.4
South Carolina	2-2	5-2	108.7
Kentucky	1-3	3-3	104.7
Vanderbilt	0-4	2-5	93.6
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Alabama	4-0	7-0	130.2
Ole Miss	1-2	4-2	116.3
Arkansas	1-3	3-3	112.9
L S U	3-1	5-1	112.4
Auburn	2-2	5-2	104.0
Mississippi State	1-2	3-4	97.7

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Troy	3-0	4-2	98.4
Arkansas State	0-2	1-4	91.5
Louisiana-Monroe	3-0	3-3	88.5
Middle Tennessee	1-1	3-3	87.9
Florida International	1-2	1-5	86.6
Louisiana	2-0	4-2	83.4
Florida Atlantic	1-1	1-4	82.6
North Texas	0-3	1-5	77.9
Western Kentucky	0-2	0-6	74.2

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	1-0	6-0	116.3
Fresno State	2-1	3-3	101.8
Nevada	2-0	3-3	99.0
Louisiana Tech	2-1	3-3	96.4
Utah State	0-2	1-5	93.2
Idaho	3-0	6-1	91.6
San Jose State	0-2	1-5	87.1
Hawaii	0-3	2-4	84.4
New Mexico State	1-2	3-4	72.7

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Tuesday, October 20		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
None
Wednesday, October 21		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Tulsa	U T E P	8.1	35-27	10
Thursday, October 22		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Florida State	NORTH CAROLINA	0.7	21-20	1
Friday, October 23		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Rutgers	ARMY	15.9	30-14	11
Saturday, October 24		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
MARSHALL	U  a  b	9.2	30-21	10
SYRACUSE	Akron	12.2	33-21	10
DUKE	Maryland	12.3	34-21	10
Georgia Tech	VIRGINIA	10.8	31-20	6
MIAMI (FL)	Clemson	7.0	24-17	8
PURDUE	Illinois	10.2	34-24	12
Central Michigan	BOWLING GREEN	16.9	34-17	7
NORTHWESTERN	Indiana	5.8	27-21	3
OHIO STATE	Minnesota	17.9	28-10	14
PITTSBURGH	South Florida	8.5	28-19	6
WEST VIRGINIA	Connecticut	2.7	20-17	6
SOUTH CAROLINA	Vanderbilt	18.6	26-7	21
NEBRASKA	Iowa State	24.6	28-3	16
EASTERN MICHIGAN	Ball State	2.1	22-20	-1
Northern Illinois	MIAMI (O)	15.1	28-13	15
Oklahoma State	BAYLOR	9.7	34-24	7
OHIO U	Kent State	10.2	30-20	13
Buffalo	WESTERN MICHIGAN	1.0	24-23	-5
Louisiana Tech	UTAH STATE	0.0	27-27 ot	3
NOTRE DAME	Boston College	3.3	34-31	6
ALABAMA	Tennessee	22.9	33-10	19
Oregon	WASHINGTON	9.8	34-24	11
TEXAS TECH	Texas A&M	25.3	42-17	21
Penn State	MICHIGAN	8.3	21-13	3
Oklahoma	KANSAS	17.5	35-17	5
Texas	MISSOURI	24.2	34-10	14
Wake Forest	NAVY	1.4	28-27	-6
COLORADO STATE	San Diego State	7.6	34-26	11
UTAH	Air Force	10.6	24-13	12
NEVADA	Idaho	10.4	38-28	0
ARIZONA	U  c  l  a	8.9	30-21	11
CALIFORNIA	Washington State	41.2	48-7	27
Temple	TOLEDO	4.3	24-20	-1
OLE MISS	Arkansas	6.4	27-21	3
CINCINNATI	Louisville	23.1	33-10	26
SOUTHERN MISS	Tulane	27.9	38-10	18
Central Florida	RICE	12.2	24-12	11
KANSAS STATE	Colorado	2.6	31-28	3
Iowa	MICHIGAN STATE	10.0	24-14	8
T  c  u	B  Y  U	1.6	26-24	4
Florida	MISSISSIPPI STATE	34.2	37-3	24
HOUSTON	S  m  u	20.5	52-31	16
Fresno State	NEW MEXICO STATE	26.4	33-7	21
L  S  U	Auburn	11.7	28-16	10
U  n  l  v	NEW MEXICO	6.5	24-17	6
SOUTHERN CAL	Oregon State	23.4	40-17	13
STANFORD	Arizona State	10.2	31-21	4
Boise State	HAWAII	28.4	42-14	26
UL-LAFAYETTE	Florida Atlantic	3.5	31-27	6
ARKANSAS STATE	Florida International	7.6	35-27	9
TROY	North Texas	23.5	34-10	20
KENTUCKY	Louisiana-Monroe	19.4	40-21	12
MIDDLE TENNESSEE	Western Kentucky	16.4	28-12	18

 

Bowl Projections

 

Bowl	Conference	Team	Conference	Team
New Mexico	MWC #4	Colorado St.	WAC #3	Fresno St.
St. Petersburg	Big East #6	Rutgers	C-USA #5	Marshall
New Orleans	Sunbelt #1	Troy	C-USA #4	East Carolina
Las Vegas	MWC #1	T C U	Pac 10 #4 or 5	Arizona St.
Poinsettia	MWC #2	Air Force	Pac 10 #6	U C L A
Hawaii	WAC	Nevada	C-USA	S M U
Little Caesar’s Pizza	Big 10 #7	Minnesota	MAC #1 or 2	Ohio U
Meineke Car Care	ACC #5-6-7	Wake Forest	Big East #3	West Va.
Emerald	Pac 10 #4 or 5	Oregon St.	ACC #5-6-7	Virginia
Music City	SEC #6 or 7	Auburn	ACC #5-6-7	North Carolina
Independence	SEC #8	Arkansas	Big 12 #7	Kansas
Eagle Bank	ACC #8	Boston College	Army/At-large	[Northwestern]
Champs Sports	ACC #4	Clemson	Big 10 #5	Wisconsin
Humanitarian	WAC #1	Idaho	MWC	Utah
Holiday	Big 12 #3	Nebraska	Pac 10 #2	California
Armed Forces	C-USA #3	Tulsa	MWC #3	B Y U
Sun	Pac 10 #3	Arizona	Big 12 #5 or Big East #2	Oklahoma
Texas	Big 12 #8	Kansas St.	Navy or C-USA	Navy
Insight.com	Big 12 #6	Missouri	Big 10 #6	Michigan St.
Chick-fil-A	SEC #5	Georgia	ACC #2	Va. Tech
Outback	SEC #3 or 4	Ole Miss	Big 10 #3	Ohio St.
Capital One	Big 10 #2	Penn St.	SEC #2	L S U
Gator	Big East #2 or Big 12 #5	Notre Dame	ACC #3	Ga. Tech
Rose	BCS Pac10	Oregon	BCS Big 10	Iowa
Sugar	BCS SEC	Southern Cal	BCS At-Large	Cincinnati
International	Big East #5	Connecticut	MAC #3	Temple
Cotton	Big 12 #2	Oklahoma St.	SEC #3 or 4	South Carolina
Papajohns.com	Big East #4	S. Florida	SEC #9	Kentucky
Liberty	SEC #6 or 7	Tennessee	C-USA #1	Houston
Alamo	Big 10 #4	Michigan	Big 12 #4	Texas Tech
Fiesta	BCS Big 12	Texas	BCS At-Large	Boise St.
Orange	BCS ACC	Miami (Fl)	BCS At-Large	Pittsburgh
G M A C	ACC #9	[Southern Miss]	MAC	Central Mich.
National Championship	*** BCS #1 ***	Alabama	*** BCS #2 ***	Florida

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For College Football–October 13-17, 2009

A Week of Can’t Miss College Football

 

This week may not be the most important week in the college football season, but it’s stacked with exciting games.  With colder weather setting in across many parts of the nation, Saturday may be a great day to make some hot soup, hot chocolate, popcorn, or whatever comforts you on a cold, dark, and dreary day, and stay indoors with multiple televisions blasting away in your den or great room.  Let’s take a look at some of these games.

 

Note: These previews are the PiRates’ personal opinions and do not reflect the computerized ratings we issue.  Additionally, when you purchase our picks at www.piratings.webs.com, you get our personal opinions and not the computerized ratings’ picks.  Last week’s picks finished 7-4 to bring our seasons’ record against the spread to 32-19-1 (62.7%).

 

Boise State at Tulsa: This game is a Wednesday night special.  This is the Broncos last chance to really impress the pollsters and influence their strength of schedule in the computer rankings.  Future games with Nevada and Idaho won’t do much for BSU’s résumé.  This Tulsa team is missing quarterback David Johnson and offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn, as the Golden Hurricane are 15 points per game off their scoring average of last year.  Boise State is yielding 14.4 points per game, and a road win here would almost guarantee a 12-0 season and BCS at-large bowl bid.

 

Cincinnati at South Florida: This Thursday night thriller could decide the Big East’s representative in the Orange Bowl or even the National Championship Game if the ball bounces right.  The PiRates believe there is just enough parity in this league to produce a champion with one conference loss.  The loser of this game can still recover to take the crown, but we think the schedule favors the Bearcats.  So, this becomes a must-win game for USF.

 

Pittsburgh at Rutgers: If the Panthers are going to challenge for the Big East title, they must win this game.  Cincinnati already won at Rutgers, but the Scarlet Knights appear to be a much better team since Labor Day.  Check out this exciting game Friday night.

 

Texas vs. Oklahoma (The Red River Shootout): Oklahoma has been a huge disappointment to date having already lost twice.  Texas fell a spot in the polls after a lackluster win over Colorado coupled with an impressive win by Alabama.  We aren’t ready to crown the Longhorns as Big 12 Champions, as they begin a rough three-week stretch that finds them facing Missouri and Oklahoma State on the road after this game.  We just don’t think they will be 8-0 when November dawns.  Still, this is a great rivalry game to watch.

 

Ohio State at Purdue: On paper, this game is a major mismatch, but these two teams have a history of playing close games even in years where the Boilermakers were not all that good.  We expect Ohio State to win by double digits this year, but it could be close for a lot longer than the scarlet and gray want.

 

Iowa at Wisconsin: The undefeated Hawkeyes venture to Madtown to take on some mad Badgers.  Wisconsin held onto the ball for what seemed like three quarters of the game at Ohio State Saturday afternoon, but all they had to show for it was an 18-point loss.  Iowa dominated Michigan for most of Saturday night before another big Wolverine comeback attempt fell just short.  The Hawkeyes have made a habit out of playing just well enough to win, and if they do so again this week, we’ll have to start making comparisons between them and the 1967 Indiana Hoosiers.

 

Virginia at Maryland: Could this be correct?  If Virginia wins at Maryland Saturday, there’s a good chance that by Saturday evening the Cavaliers could be in undisputed first place in the ACC Coastal Division?  This is the same UVa team that lost to William & Mary and Southern Mississippi.  We may have more than one comparison to 1967, as the Cavs are starting to look like Gene Stallings’ 1967 Texas A&M Aggies.

 

Kentucky at Auburn: This game may have lost much of its luster when Kentucky quarterback Brian Hartline was lost to an MCL injury in the South Carolina game.  Still, it should be an interesting game if only to see how UK coach Rich Brooks chooses to replace Hartline.  Backup quarterback Will Fidler may not have the talent to step in and move the Wildcat offense.  Randall Cobb runs the Wildcat package, but he’s also the team’s top receiver.  Playing him full time at quarterback gives Kentucky few passing options.  True freshman Morgan Newton has not appeared in a game and is scheduled to redshirt, but he may be forced into action.

 

Wyoming at Air Force: Don’t look now, but the Cowboys must rank as one of the two big surprises in the Mountain Time Zone (Idaho being the other).  They are 2-0 in the Mountain West and 4-2 overall under first year coach Dave Christensen.  The second half of the schedule gets incredibly harder for Wyoming with Utah, BYU, TCU, and Colorado State still to play.  If the Cowboys are to sneak into a bowl, they may have to win this game.

 

Minnesota at Penn State: We feel this game will be much closer than people expect it should be.  Penn State has yet to prove itself worthy of its ranking this season, and the Lions lost at home to the only high-caliber team on its schedule.  Minnesota has been consistent this season, beating teams they should beat and losing to teams that are better.  We’re not sure Penn State is better than the Gophers, so we expect an excellent game that could go down to the final minute or even to overtime.

 

Marshall at West Virginia: Huh!  You are reading this one correctly.  We expect this backyard brawl to be a nail-biter for most if not all the game.  In the three previous games since this rivalry has been renewed, West Virginia won with ease.  We don’t think it will be the case this time around.  The Mountaineers may not respect their smaller rival as much as they should, and we believe the Thundering Herd could put a big scare into their big brother.  It may take a late Noel Devine touchdown run to sew this one up.  

 

Southern Cal at Notre Dame: Both teams had a week off to prepare for this game, and we expect a duesy.  An Irish win would just about guarantee them a spot in a BCS bowl this year, while a Trojan win could keep their hopes alive of playing in the second Pasadena bowl this year instead of the first.  It should be a great contrast in styles with Notre Dame scoring at a near 33-point pace and USC giving up just 8.6 points per game. 

 

Texas Tech at Nebraska: The Cornhuskers need to follow up a great fourth quarter comeback at Missouri with four full quarters of action against the Red Raiders.  Nebraska won’t win this game if they have a goose egg on the scoreboard after three quarters, or even at halftime.  They may have a tough time winning if they don’t score in the first quarter.  The Black Shirts defense is almost all the way back, as NU is giving up a stingy 8.0 points per game this year.  Texas Tech is beginning to pick it up on offense, and if the Cornhuskers hold them under 20 points, then they will have proven they deserve to be considered a top contender for the Big 12 title.

 

Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech: The Hokies could secure the Coastal Division title with a win this week.  However, we aren’t ready to cede the game to them just yet.  Last year in Blacksburg, VT escaped with a 20-17 win by virtue of a late long drive that would have stalled had it not been for two, 15-yard penalties called against the Yellow Jackets.  This year, Paul Johnson’s team has a much better grasp of the offense, but the GT defense has let them down, allowing 26.5 points per game.  Hokie Defensive Coordinator Bud Foster needs to get his charges to play more consistently.  This one could be an instant classic.

 

Missouri at Oklahoma State: If Missouri cannot get over the heartbreaking loss to Nebraska, they are going to be feeling even worse this week.  Oklahoma State has fallen out of the national limelight due to their loss to Houston, but the Cowboys are very much still in the Big 12 South race. 

 

Stanford at Arizona: We have a name for games like this one—bowl eliminator.  The loser of this game will have three losses.  If it’s Arizona, then the Wildcats could finish no better than 5-7 with games still to play against UCLA, Cal, Oregon, Arizona State, and USC.  If it’s Stanford, then 5-7 looks like the best possible record for the Cardinal with games still to play against Arizona State, Oregon, USC, Cal, and Notre Dame.

 

Arkansas at Florida: Could Arkansas actually give Florida a good game Saturday afternoon?  We see a lot of similarities between this game and last year’s Florida-Ole Miss game.  The Gators’ offense looked pedestrian against LSU, and Arkansas’s offense will not allow Florida to win this game with such little offense themselves.  Three of us believe this will be a much closer game than expected with Arkansas even having a chance to pull off the upset; one of us sees it being a 27-10 type game; one of us sees the Gators winning by four or five touchdowns.  We’ll have to see who’s correct.

 

What’s With Georgia and Mark Richt?

 

Georgia has averaged better than 10 wins per season in the eight years Mark Richt has been in Athens.  Now, off to a 3-3 start, some crazy, idiotic fans have begun to stir up some dust in the Peach State.  The defense is underperforming, while the offense has played better than expected considering UGa lost Matthew Stafford, Knowshon Moreno, and Mohamed Massaquoi from last year’s team.

 

Cheer up Bulldog fans.  Your team will rebound from the orange crushing last week with a nice road win this week.  What your defense needs best is a breather game against a team that cannot move the football, even against the likes of Mississippi State and Army.  An easy win over a Vanderbilt team headed to a 2-10 season should be what the doctor called for.  Who knows what will happen following this win and a week off?  Florida should cream the Bulldogs, but three consecutive home games against beatable teams should set up the season-ending rivalry as a game where a Georgia win could sneak the red and black into the Outback Bowl at 8-4.

 

NCAA Top 25 For October 12, 2009
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Florida	137.4	5	0
2	Texas	131.9	5	0
3	Alabama	130.1	6	0
4	Oklahoma	129.8	3	2
5	Southern Cal	124.2	4	1
6	Va. Tech	121.8	5	1
7	Ohio St.	117.9	5	1
8	Nebraska	117.3	4	1
9	Iowa	117.0	6	0
10	Boise St.	116.1	5	0
11	Ole Miss	115.8	3	2
12	T C U	115.3	5	0
13	Oregon	115.1	5	1
14	Penn St.	115.0	5	1
15	Miami (Fla.)	114.9	4	1
16	Georgia Tech	114.8	5	1
17	Texas Tech	114.6	4	2
18	California	114.4	3	2
19	Okla. St.	113.5	4	1
20	B  Y  U	113.0	5	1
21	L  S  U	112.4	5	1
22	Pittsburgh	112.3	5	1
23	Stanford	111.5	4	2
24	Cincinnati	110.9	5	0
25	Kansas	110.8	5	0
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida State	0-3	2-4	110.0
Clemson	1-2	2-3	108.6
Wake Forest	2-1	4-2	107.8
Boston College	2-2	4-2	107.0
North Carolina State	0-2	3-3	104.9
Maryland	1-1	2-4	91.8
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Virginia Tech	3-0	5-1	121.8
Miami-FL	2-1	4-1	114.9
Georgia Tech	3-1	5-1	114.8
North Carolina	0-2	4-2	106.1
Virginia	1-0	2-3	102.0
Duke	1-1	3-3	100.8

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Pittsburgh	2-0	5-1	112.3
Cincinnati	1-0	5-0	110.9
South Florida	1-0	5-0	109.6
Connecticut	0-1	3-2	104.8
West Virginia	1-0	4-1	104.3
Rutgers	0-1	4-1	100.9
Louisville	0-1	2-3	93.1
Syracuse	0-2	2-4	92.6

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Ohio State	3-0	5-1	117.9
Iowa	2-0	6-0	117.0
Penn State	1-1	5-1	115.0
Michigan	1-2	4-2	104.0
Michigan State	2-1	3-3	103.9
Wisconsin	2-1	5-1	102.2
Minnesota	2-1	4-2	101.2
Purdue	0-2	1-5	95.6
Northwestern	1-1	4-2	95.0
Illinois	0-3	1-4	93.9
Indiana	0-2	3-3	89.9

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	1-0	4-1	117.3
Kansas	1-0	5-0	110.8
Missouri	0-1	4-1	106.7
Colorado	0-1	1-4	96.9
Iowa State	0-2	3-3	93.8
Kansas State	1-1	3-3	93.1
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Texas	2-0	5-0	131.9
Oklahoma	1-0	3-2	129.8
Texas Tech	1-1	4-2	114.6
Oklahoma State	1-0	4-1	113.5
Baylor	0-1	3-2	104.1
Texas A&M	0-1	3-2	97.7

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Southern Mississippi	1-1	3-3	99.2
East Carolina	2-1	3-3	96.8
Marshall	2-1	4-2	94.7
Central Florida	1-2	3-2	93.4
U A B	2-1	2-3	89.3
Memphis	1-2	2-4	86.3
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Houston	0-1	4-1	105.4
Tulsa	2-0	4-1	101.7
U T E P	1-1	2-4	90.9
S M U	2-0	3-2	87.3
Rice	0-2	0-6	80.5
Tulane	0-2	2-3	75.0

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		4-1	109.2
Navy		4-2	102.2
Army		3-3	83.0

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	3-0	3-2	97.1
Buffalo	0-2	2-4	92.6
Ohio U	2-0	4-2	92.0
Bowling Green	1-1	2-4	87.6
Akron	0-2	1-4	83.7
Kent St.	1-1	2-4	83.3
Miami (O)	0-2	0-6	76.3
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Michigan	3-0	5-1	107.9
Northern Illinois	1-0	3-2	93.6
Toledo	1-1	3-3	89.7
Western Michigan	2-1	3-3	89.4
Ball State	0-2	0-6	82.2
Eastern Michigan	0-2	0-5	82.1

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	1-0	5-0	115.3
B Y U	2-0	5-1	113.0
Utah	1-0	4-1	106.0
Air Force	2-1	3-3	98.8
Colo. State	0-2	3-3	95.4
Wyoming	2-0	4-2	88.5
S. D. State	0-1	2-3	88.3
UNLV	0-2	2-4	85.9
New Mexico	0-2	0-6	76.4

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Southern Cal	2-1	4-1	124.2
Oregon	3-0	5-1	115.1
California	0-2	3-2	114.4
Stanford	3-1	4-2	111.5
Arizona	1-1	3-2	110.4
U C L A	0-2	3-2	105.1
Oregon St.	2-1	4-2	104.5
Arizona St.	1-1	3-2	103.4
Washington	2-1	3-3	102.7
Wash. St.	0-4	1-5	77.0

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida	3-0	5-0	137.4
Tennessee	1-2	3-3	110.6
Georgia	2-2	3-3	108.1
South Carolina	2-1	5-1	107.9
Kentucky	0-3	2-3	102.0
Vanderbilt	0-3	2-4	95.5
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Alabama	3-0	6-0	130.1
Ole Miss	1-2	3-2	115.8
L S U	3-1	5-1	112.4
Arkansas	1-2	3-2	110.0
Auburn	2-1	5-1	106.2
Mississippi State	1-2	2-4	96.4

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Troy	2-0	3-2	97.8
Arkansas State	0-1	1-3	92.0
Middle Tennessee	1-1	3-2	89.2
Louisiana-Monroe	2-0	2-3	87.8
Florida International	1-1	1-4	87.2
Louisiana	1-0	3-2	83.1
Florida Atlantic	0-1	0-4	82.0
North Texas	0-2	1-4	78.5
Western Kentucky	0-1	0-5	74.5

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	1-0	5-0	116.1
Fresno State	1-1	2-3	101.1
Nevada	1-0	2-3	98.9
Louisiana Tech	1-1	2-3	93.5
Utah State	0-1	1-4	93.3
Idaho	2-0	5-1	89.3
San Jose State	0-1	1-4	87.8
Hawaii	0-2	2-3	85.9
New Mexico State	1-1	3-3	75.6

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Tuesday, October 13		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Arkansas State	UL-MONROE	2.0	28-26	0
Wednesday, October 14		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Boise State	TULSA	11.2	31-20	10
Thursday, October 15		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
SOUTH FLORIDA	Cincinnati	1.9	24-22	0
Friday, October 16		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Pittsburgh	RUTGERS	8.4	24-16	4
Saturday, October 17		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Texas     (N)	Oklahoma	2.1	26-24	3
BOSTON COLLEGE	North Carolina St.	5.6	30-24	6
Ohio State	PURDUE	19.3	33-14	18
Bowling Green	BALL STATE	2.9	24-21	7
MICHIGAN STATE	Northwestern	12.1	25-13	11
Iowa	WISCONSIN	11.6	28-16	3
Virginia	MARYLAND	7.5	35-27	5
CLEMSON	Wake Forest	4.1	31-27	3
Baylor	IOWA STATE	7.3	30-23	2
OLE MISS	U  a  b	30.0	44-14	20
Georgia	VANDERBILT	10.1	20-10	8
AUBURN	Kentucky	7.5	35-27	10
TEMPLE	Army	16.4	26-10	11
C  m  u	W  M  U	15.8	40-24	9
AIR FORCE	Wyoming	13.6	35-21	13
OHIO U	Miami (O)	18.4	28-10	20
Nevada	UTAH STATE	3.3	27-24	7
PENN STATE	Minnesota	17.3	31-14	12
WEST VIRGINIA	Marshall	12.6	33-20	14
ALABAMA	South Carolina	26.0	38-12	18
Southern Cal	NOTRE DAME	11.0	28-17	8
California	U  C  L  A	6.3	20-14	1
Houston	TULANE	28.1	45-17	20
NEBRASKA	Texas Tech	6.2	27-21	8
Texas A&M	KANSAS STATE	1.6	28-26	4
Virginia Tech	GEORGIA TECH	3.7	28-24	6
OKLAHOMA STATE	Missouri	10.0	34-24	3
EAST CAROLINA	Rice	19.3	40-21	16
BUFFALO	Akron	11.9	33-21	9
T  C  U	Colorado State	23.2	35-12	20
LOUISIANA TECH	New Mexico State	20.9	42-21	16
E  M  U	Kent State	1.1	28-27	-3
IDAHO	Hawaii	6.7	31-24	10
B  y  u	SAN DIEGO STATE	21.7	45-23	20
ARIZONA	Stanford	1.9	26-24	4
Illinois	INDIANA	1.5	24-22	-3
SOUTHERN MISS	Memphis	15.9	37-21	13
Northern Illinois	TOLEDO	0.9	35-34	7
CONNECTICUT	Louisville	14.9	35-20	14
Kansas	COLORADO	10.9	35-24	12
Miami (Fla)	U  C  F	18.5	40-21	14
FLORIDA	Arkansas	30.9	38-7	22
Navy	S  M  U	11.9	44-32	10
ARIZONA STATE	Washington	3.7	24-20	4
Utah	U  N  L  V	17.6	35-17	19
FRESNO STATE	San Jose State	16.3	44-28	18
Louisiana-Lafayette	WESTERN KY	6.3	20-14	10
Troy	FLORIDA INT’L	8.1	28-20	9
Florida Atlantic	NORTH TEXAS	0.8	27-26	-1
Mississippi State	MIDDLE TENNESSEE	4.2	28-24	0

 

Starting next week, we will begin to look at the bowl possibilities.  Every team will have played at least half of their scheduled games by then.